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Pythagoras: A New Agent-based Simulation System were close enough to the explosion were detonated using Pythagoras’ cookie-cutter blast capability. However, because the aim points were modeled with a vulnerability setting of zero, they were unharmed by the JDAMs’ effects—so only their color was changed through Pythagoras’ paintball weapon capability. The aim points were also assigned a nonzero leadership value. When the aim points’ color changed, the mines and obstacles perceived the aim points to be their leaders and were assigned a behavior to move away from their leader to a distance equal to the blast plume of the bomb. When the JDAM impacts were spaced in time, some obstacles were blown forward along the lane that was being cleared through the obstacles. They were then blown backward along the same lane by a subsequent bomb, creating a seesaw effect. We found that, when the AAVs had poor ability to navigate through the lane created by the JDAMs, their survivability was even worse than if no JDAMs had been dropped at all, because the mines that were blown out of the channel combined with mines that were unaffected, resulting in a much denser minefield than was originally there. Although the result is intuitive, none of the analysts involved thought of that outcome until it was observed in Pythagoras. Thus, the lanes must be marked well enough to avoid navigation errors and must be wide enough to allow safe passage. Competing for Hearts and Minds. A test scenario demonstrated the use of soft rules. A set of villagers was created whose colors varied randomly from shades of red to shades of blue. A set of peacekeepers, armed with short-range, nonlethal weapons, was sent into the village. The short-range weapons represented leaflets or candy bars. A villager receiving a leaflet became more blue and friendly to the peacekeepers. Simultaneously, a charismatic enemy organizer in the town hall was using an indirect-fire, widearea-effect weapon—a bullhorn. Exposure slowly turned the villagers deeper red. Once red enough, the villagers perceived the charismatic enemy organizer to be their leader and moved off to the town hall. (One variant gave them rocks to throw at the peacekeepers, once they became hostile.) The peacekeepers were typically able to placate only a limited number of villagers, the rest going to the town hall to become followers of the charismatic organizer. Occasionally, however, when all remaining villagers had been pacified, a few peacekeepers would head to the town hall to attempt to turn some of the followers back into villagers. Eventually, a steady-state condition was created between the number of villagers and the number of followers. In one case, the charismatic leader ran out of batteries for his bullhorn. Soon the peacekeepers moved up to the town hall and pacified all of the villagers. Once the source of their discontent had been eliminated, pacification was easy. Summary The combination of changing color, changing strength of desire or motivation, behaviorchanging events/actions, and group and individual dynamics—all present in the current Pythagoras prototype—has already demonstrated that this new capability offers a powerful, flexible way to represent human behavior in military modeling and simulation. Soft rules allow each agent (or object, in a traditional legacy simulation) to be created slightly or greatly different from other agents of the same class. In a combat model, for example, some troops would be better marksmen, braver, or more obedient than others. 56 Technology Review Journal • Spring/Summer 2003
Pythagoras: A New Agent-based Simulation System Pythagoras’ development continues with additional features, new desires and triggers, and other agent capabilities. Its application to various military problems is only now being uncovered, but agent-based simulation tools are the future of military modeling and simulation. Pythagoras will help to lead the way. Summary 1. U.S. Marine Corps, Project Albert Web site, http://www.projectalbert.org or http:// mcwl.quantico.usmc.mil/divisions/albert/index.asp. Author Profiles Edmund J. Bitinas, an operations research analyst for Northrop Grumman Mission Systems’ Information and Technical Services Division, Systems Analysis and Engineering, has specialized in developing military models and simulations for more than 24 years. He designed and developed Combat IV and has applied it to more than 50 different campaign-level studies and analyses. He has supported the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization on Theater Missile Defense campaign-level issues, performed campaign studies of the Joint Strike Fighter for the Turkish Air Force and Singapore Air Force, and supported the U.S. Air Force Air Combat Command in the 2001 Quadrennial Defense Review, also performing campaign analyses. Mr. Bitinas currently supports the U.S. Marine Corps on a variety of analysis tasks. He is also the lead analyst for the Marine Corps’ participation in the development and testing of the Joint Wargaming System. In addition, he is designing software for Project Albert. He holds a BS in computer science and an MS in operations research from the Illinois Institute of Technology. edmund.bitinas@ngc.com Zoe A. Henscheid, an operations research analyst for Northrop Grumman Mission Systems’ Information and Technical Services Division, has supported a variety of analysis tasks for the U.S. Marine Corps. She has established baseline ammunition requirements for the proposed High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, assessed current and potential weapon system capabilities across several Expeditionary Fire Support missions, and established a multiattribute value model used to assess multirole radar system alternatives. She holds a BS in industrial engineering from the University of Illinois, Champaign-Urbana, and has completed graduate courses in industrial engineering. zoe.henscheid@ngc.com Technology Review Journal • Spring/Summer 2003 57
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