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10 Friday 07 - 13 December 2018 The Southern Times ■ FEATURE > From Page 9 KINGMAKERS Kamerhe for Tshisekedi Going by October opinion poll that said Kemerhe would win 17% of the vote, the 59-year-old leader of the Union for the Congolese Nation party, is the ultimate kingmaker. “This is the winning ticket,” Kamerhe told reporters alongside Tshisekedi in Kenya’s capital, Nairobi, when it was announced that the two would join forces. A former president of the National Assembly, Karmehe contested and lost against Kabila in the 2011 presidential election. He came third behind Kabila and Etienne Tshisekedi, garnering 7% of the votes cast. Under their agreement, if Tshisekedi wins the presidency, he will make Kamerhe, who hails from Bukavu, his prime minister. Tshisekedi, has been accused of not having political experience, and ‘borrowing’ support from the popularity of his father, Etienne Tshisekedi, who was the opposition leader in DRC for several decades. Kamerhe, who will be Tshisekedi’s campaign director, also expects to be endorsed by the latter for the 2023 presidential polls. Nigeria’s 2019 election: a two-horse race with uninspiring candidates Unattached kingmakers: Catholic Church, Lucha movement The candidates, notably Fayulu’s Lamuka coalition are hoping to win the support of the Congo’s influential Catholic Church. The church, which has consistently called out Kabila’s government for human rights violations and mediated political agreements to maintain stability, wields considerable power in a country where over 90% of the people identify as Christians. It is, however, likely to remain neutral and not endorse any of the candidates. In a statement issued last week, the National Episcopal Conference of Congo (CENCO), called for a credible election. “We must do everything to avoid a parody of an election whose results would not be accepted and which would, moreover, plunge our country into violence,” (CENCO) said in a statement. CENCO, which also questioned the use of a new electronic voting system, recommended that the electoral commission must make sure ballots are counted manually after they are printed by the machines. The opposition has protested the use of the machines, arguing that they are more vulnerable to vote-rigging than paper and ink and could be compromised by the unreliability of Congo’s power supply. Lucha’s position Fayulu is also hoping to win the support of civil society groups, including the pro-democracy anti-Kabila movement, Lucha. However, following the breakdown of the Lamuka coalition, when Tshisekedi and Kamerhe withdrew, Lucha expressed its dismay. “Our only choice is to forge change by ourselves,” it said. “We’ve had enough! Our Congo deserves better than this.” They are yet to voice support for any of the candidates or coalitions in the race. – Africa News ■ Olayinka Ajala* Almost all of Nigeria’s 68 political parties have wrapped up their primaries and chosen candidates to stand in the country’s February 2019 general election. The poll is likely to be yet another two-horse race: a contest between the All Progressives Congress (APC) and People’s Democratic Party (PDP). These are the only two parties to win the presidency since the end of military rule in 1999. The Conversation Africa’s Julius Maina spoke to Olayinka Ajala about the emerging campaign issues and the surprises so far. Who are the main candidates for the February election? Thirty-one aspirants have emerged to contest the presidential election. That number will probably be reduced before the elections, as several smaller parties are in talks to form coalitions. But there are only two leading contenders – the incumbent, President Muhammadu Buhari, and Atiku Abubakar, who was vice-president under President Olusegun Obasanjo from 1999 to 2007. Both are contesting on the platforms of the two largest parties in Nigeria. Apart from the two main contenders, other popular names on the list are former governors Donald Duke and Olusegun Mimiko, alongside Obi Ezekwesili. She’s the former minister of education and co-founder of Transparency International. What are the emerging campaign issues? The campaign issues are similar to those that featured in the 2015 presidential elections. These included political violence, particularly an end to the Boko Haram insurgency and the recent conflict between herdsmen and farmers which has claimed thousands of lives. Corruption will also loom large. Buhari claims to have curtailed corruption, particularly since the introduction of the single treasury account that has reduced “leakages” in the country’s finances. But the state of the economy and the increase in youth unemployment has negatively affected the current government’s image. The Atiku campaign has capitalised on this. Other issues that have emerged include a lack of infrastructure, lopsided political appointments - as the president is often accused of neglecting federal character when making political appointments as well as the president’s health. These are likely to dominate the campaign when it officially kicks off in December. Buhari’s health is likely to feature extensively given that he spent about 15% of his first term in office receiving medical treatment abroad. Have there been any surprises ahead of the 2019 ballot? The first major surprise was the emergence of Atiku as the People’s Democratic Party candidate. Atiku, one of the founding members of the PDP, emerged as the flag bearer for the party despite being relatively quiet politically in the last few years following his movement from PDP to APC and then back to PDP. The second surprise was former president Olusegun Obasanjo’s endorsement of Atiku. Earlier in the year, Obasanjo wrote an open letter to Buhari advising the president not to seek a second term. He argued that Buhari had under-performed and was incapable of understanding the problems the country faces. Subsequently, Obasanjo formed a movement to unseat the incumbent president. › Atiku Abubakar Obasanjo’s endorsement of Atiku came as a shock to most Nigerians because of his frosty relationship with the former vice-president. Obasanjo famously stated in August 2018: “If I support Atiku for anything, God will not forgive me. If I do not know, yes. But once I know, Atiku can never enjoy my support”. The sudden turn around by the former president just two months later to “forgive and endorse” Atiku came as a surprise to most Nigerians. What do the primaries tell us about women’s participation? Despite the large number of aspirants for the 2019 elections, women and young people remain underrepresented. Although six women emerged before the presidential primaries, the number dropped to three immediately after the primaries. Also, several young people were unable to contest in the primaries because of the cost of nomination forms. Elections are costly affairs in Nigeria. The ruling party charges candidates US$125,000 (£97,000) to be able to stand for nominations. The People’s Democratic Party also charged US$33,000 (£26,000) for its nomination forms. This is in a country where the minimum wage is less than US$100 a month. The government’s insincerity in supporting women and young people was laid bare in June 2018 when the president passed a bill titled “Not too young to Rule”. The bill was designed to support the political aspiration of young people interested in pursuing a political career. Minutes after signing the legislation, the president commended the national assembly for passing the bill – but warned that young people would still have to wait till 2023 before they would actually be given the opportunity. With just a few months to the polls, most Nigerians remain frustrated and concerned because neither of the two leading presidential aspirants offer any real hope. The president has been accused of being too slow and too ill to handle the rigours of the position. The multiple allegations of corruption and fraud levelled against Atiku, meanwhile, continue to taint his image and hopes of gaining power from the Buhari administration. Unless a credible consensus candidate emerges, the 2019 presidential elections remains a two-horse race with none of the contenders really appealing to the populace. – The Conversation *Olayinka Ajala is Associate Lecturer and Conflict Analyst, University of York
The Southern Times Friday 07 - 13 December 2018 11 ■ FEATURE Taking Africa’s democratic temperature as a dozen countries prepare for polls ■ John J Stremlau* More than a dozen national elections will be held across Africa next year. All 55 members of the African Union (AU) are obligated to hold regular and ostensibly democratic elections. They must also invite teams of AU election observers to publicly monitor, assess and report the results. Is all this electoral activity helping to entrench democracy as the foundation for national and regional security, development and integration? Or have elections become the means for demagogues to grab power – or, more typically, for powerful elites and authoritarian rulers to entrench themselves? Democratic theory prescribes credible elections as a necessary, but insufficient means, to consolidate real democracy. Real democracy typically abets peace and security. National circumstances vary. But three additional conditions are also vital. They are freedom of expression, the right of assembly, and an independent nonpartisan judiciary to resolve disputes and ensure the rule of law predominates. Most deadly conflicts in Africa occur within – not between – sovereign states. Recognising this, the AU has made observing and assessing democratic elections an integral part of its operations. This often happens alongside observers from regional economic communities. As observations improve, so do opportunities to gauge whether electoral violence and other severe human rights abuses threaten regional peace and security. In mid-November, there were three important developments at the AU headquarters in Addis Ababa. These promise to improve Africa’s long-term prospects for collective self-reliance and democratic peace. And this will happen regionally, nationally and locally. The first was a streamlining of the continental body’s operations. The second was a move to strengthen the monitoring and evaluation of member countries. The third was a renewed commitment to improve the depth, duration, and diligence of African election observation missions. Three Changes President Paul Kagame of Rwanda has been the chair of the AU this year. He has driven a set of administrative and financial reforms to improve its efficiency and effectiveness. Headline reforms include: ◆◆ Reducing the number of AU Commission portfolios, ◆◆ Introducing merit-based hiring and promotion procedures, and ◆◆ Reducing dependence on foreign donors. This has been achieved by revising the scale of member state contributions and penalties for nonpayment. ◆◆ The key structural reform will be combining the portfolios of Political Affairs and Peace and Security. This makes sense strategically. It will ensure that the lion’s share of AU resources supports both urgent peacemaking needs and creates conditions conducive to developing politically capable states. Failures on either front could jeopardise the AU’s strategic plan for the socio-economic transformation of the continent. Two other developments complement these shifts. One is the Assembly’s decision to strengthen the monitoring and evaluation of key governance areas on the continent. This promises substantial improvements in the role and functioning of the African Peer Review Mechanism. The mechanism was established in 2003. It aims to encourage member states to critically and regularly assess their progress in governance and socio-economic development. After much initial excitement, the mechanism devolved into a largely technical and widely ignored exercise. Its governing Forum of Heads of State sought to infuse it with greater political clout and relevance in 2016. It mandated its new director, Professor Eddy Maloka, to produce an Africa-wide comparative assessment of governance challenges facing AU member states. This will be presented to the next regular AU Assembly of Heads of State and Government in February 2019. The final change involves beefing up election monitoring. Ten years ago the AU entered into a formal partnership with the Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy in Africa. The parties agreed on 16 November to seek ways to extend and improve the partnership. The institute is based in Johannesburg. It boasts an all-African staff from more than a dozen nations. It has helped AU missions on several fronts. This has included the training and application of a common set of observation principles and democratic election standards, and more comprehensive, rapid and technologically advanced tools and training of AU observers. The partnership has also helped the AU to acquire a leadership role among domestic and international election observer groups pursuing greater electoral transparency and accountability. This is true even within Africa’s most troubled states. › Rwanda's President Paul Kagame Is democracy dying? These efforts would seem to run counter to the question “Is Democracy Dying?”, which has become a preoccupation in the era of US President Donald Trump. African politics, too, are vulnerable to demagoguery, debauchery and divisiveness. More notable is the proliferation of progressive forces at all levels of African politics. They are exposing and combating corruption and other egregious abuses of power. Progress is slow, erratic, and dangerous for democracy advocates and activists to pursue. Yet in a year when Freedom House’s latest global survey concludes democracy is in decline, Africa may well be bucking the trend. The Mo Ibrahim Foundation’s 2018 Index of African Governance found that …governance on our continent, on average, is slowly improving … approximately three out of four African citizens live in a country where governance has improved over the last ten years. Despite Africa’s many problems, it continues to sustain a wide variety of democratic experiments. Extensive surveys by Afrobarometer, the non-partisan research network, show the majority of Africa’s citizens still prefer democracy to the alternative. This is a reality the African Union increasingly recognises and is attempting to support. – The Conversation *John J Stremlau is visiting Professor of International Relations, University of the Witwatersrand
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