02-02-2019

EDITORIAL
SATUrDAy,
FEbrUAry 2, 2019
4
Acting Editor & Publisher : Jobaer Alam
Telephone: +8802-9104683-84, Fax: 9127103
e-mail: editor@thebangladeshtoday.com
Saturday, February 2, 2019
Political stability
indispensable
for economy
T
ime
and again analysts and expertsstressed
the point that political stability is
tooessential for the needed at least 8 per cent
economic growth that could take Bangladesh in
time to the goal of achieving middle income
country status sustainably. The concern about
instability has once again become relevant when
the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) seems to
be girding up its loins to launch afresh another
mindless upheaval in the streets in support of its
various rabid demands. It appears that this
political juggernaut has learnt nothing from its
previous sordid experience and cares little or
nothing about the economic consequences of its
renewed intention to plunge the country into
another upheaval. Even now the economy has not
well recovered from the battering it received
during 2014 and the following year. Thus,
politically induced violence-- reviving-would
surely greatly hazard Bangladesh in acquiring the
necessary annual economic growth rate to climb to
a middle income country status by the targeted
date.
Of course, those who are critical of views and
suggestions that seem to reflect the government's
stand, they would understandably or
pathologically tend to consider the above views as
partisan ones aimed to promote government's
objectives.
But can we say the same about the Centre for Policy
Dialogue (CPD) ? The CPD is a highly respected
leading think-tank of the country. It is particularly
esteemed for its objective and unemotional analysis
of the national economy, for calling a spadea spade
without hesitation. Thus, when the CPD also makes
observations in an analysis of the Bangladesh
economy that rhyme with the above views of concern,
can we then dismiss off the same so easily or as
politically motivated? The answer hardly needs an
explanation ; it is self explanatory.
Not only the CPD, other well known local and
international think tanks, plus our main chamber
bodies, and even the World Bank, the Asian
Development Bank and other international
organizations who engage in analyses of the
Bangladesh economy, they have repeatedly
pointed out the imperative of establishing long
lasting political stability in the context of
Bangladesh for this country to economically grow
and develop at a faster pace to successfully
overcome its remaining problems of poverty and
underdevelopment.
Underinvestment in its economy has been
Bangladesh's big economic problem in varying
degrees for decades. But notwithstanding the
same, our economy has been showing remarkable
resilience and capacity for moving forward in
recent years. The growth momentum appeared so
strong that all indications were the economy was
headed to achieve its highest growth rate of some
7 plus per cent in the outgoing fiscal year. That this
did not happen and growth slumped somewhat in
the end, was seen linked directly to the worst manmade
and politically induced troubles all through
from 2013-2015 particularly from the appearance
of conditions that virtually brought all kinds of
economic activities to a halt or near to a halt in
that period.
The economy has not adequately recovered from
the very bad battering it received at that time. Its
lingering problem of less than the desired amount
of investment has now reached a worrying level .
As it was highlighted in the CPD analysis, the
predicament is mainly due to investors' lack of
confidence . It is not that the traditional
bottlenecks posed by government's inconsistent
policies, non availability of enabling
infrastructures, paucity of financial resources for
borrowing, obstructive bureaucracy, insufficient
energy supplies, etc., these are also creating
disincentives for investments. But these problems
have been sorted out considerably in different
degrees in the last two years. What then is acting so
powerfully to discourage investment decisions ?
Anybody with a sensible bird's eyes views of the
investment scenario would likely not fail to note
that the investment train remains largely derailed
from potential investors feeling not confident
about getting in the longer run not even breakeven
returns from their investments not to speak
about decent profits out of continuing political
instability. This apprehension which is scaring
away investors is being caused by repeated threats
by the BNP leaders that they would soon start
another movement to unseat the present
government from power. Therefore, it is the duty
of all patriotic quarters in the country specially
including the business quarters, to tell the BNP
that nobody gave them any license to further
destroy the economy by their so called movements
started in the name of the people in which people
are actually least interested.
Saudi Arabia joins the bogle Age with MSCI Tadawul Index
The Chinese government is
responding to the rapid growth of
Christianity in that country with
violence and oppression, in an attempt to
consolidate power. But that is exactly the
wrong response. We at Bowyer Research
urge President Xi Jinping to study recent
history - and Chinese history - more
carefully, to see that his government's
campaign of imprisonment and violence
is not likely to produce the stability he
wants. In our investigation of the
dynamics of regime change, we've found
evidence that governments with high
levels of Christian persecution are
considerably more likely to have regime
changes forced upon them than their
non-persecuting counterparts.
This should worry President Xi, as his
administration has embarked on a brutal
campaign of Christian repression.
According to a report published last year
by The Associated Press, Xi has waged
"the most severe systematic suppression
of Christianity in the country since
religious freedom was written into the
Chinese constitution in 1982 …
destroying crosses, burning Bibles,
shutting churches and ordering followers
to sign papers renouncing their faith."
Xi may very well be risking the stability
of the Chinese state by attacking the
Christian minority. Particularly
noteworthy has been the imprisonment
of Pastor Wang Yi of Early Rain Covenant
Church, along with his wife and dozens of
members of his church. Pastor Yi wrote a
brilliant exposition on the right to
religious freedom and the limits of the
Top index provider MSCI has
teamed up with the Saudi Stock
Exchange, above, to launch the
tradeable MSCI Tadawul 30 Index.
(Getty Images)
Had Jack Bogle lived just a few days
longer he would no doubt have been
intrigued by this week's news from
Saudi Arabia.
Bogle was regarded as one of the
greatest financial innovators to have
ever lived. He was the brains behind the
concept of index investing, by which an
investor can put money directly into a
stock market via an index of the market
itself, rather than via the individual
stocks of which the market is
composed.
Like all the best ideas, its simplicity
was striking. Why pay for all that
expensive advice, analysis, broking and
management fees, and the rest of the
paraphernalia of the global investment
business? Why not instead buy a
financial instrument that represents all
the constituents of a stock market,
weighted according to size and
liquidity. Better still, why not let a
computer do it for you? The absence of
human effort put into the buy/sell
decision led to the term "passive
investment."
Bogle's idea - though he was only at
the beginning of the modern computer
age when he had it - has revolutionized
the investment business. Now passive
investment in indices is by far the
biggest part of the global investment
universe.Unless you consciously chose
to pay for the services of an oldfashioned
investment adviser, your
funds will almost certainly be handled
digitally and will be linked to the value
of an index. These days, especially in the
decade since the global financial crisis,
you will not hold shares in Apple, or
General Electric, or Bank of America
directly, but you will hold shares in the
indices of the markets on which these
stocks are traded.
And a good thing too, because all the
smart investment brains in the world
do not do better, over an extended
period, than the indices. Warren Buffet,
renowned investment Sage of Omaha,
recommends passive index investment
over active, and has also suggested the
US erects a statue to Bogle, who died
last month aged 82.
Last week, Saudi Arabia caught up
with the Bogle revolution when the
MSCI Tadawul Index went live for the
first time. The new index was the logical
and most fruitful outcome of the
decision last year to grant Saudi Arabia
FrANk kANE
emerging market status by the index
compiler MSCI.
Before, any investor wanting to back
the Kingdom's economic
transformation would have to either
buy a regional index, in which Saudi
Arabia was mixed with other economies
in the Middle East and North Africa, or
go through the process of becoming a
qualified investor and acquiring a
regulated status in the Kingdom, to buy
individual stocks such as SABIC or
Unless you consciously chose to pay for the services of
an old-fashioned investment adviser, your funds will
almost certainly be handled digitally and will be linked to
the value of an index. These days, especially in the
decade since the global financial crisis, you will not hold
shares in Apple, or General Electric, or bank of America
directly, but you will hold shares in the indices of the
markets on which these stocks are traded.
state, reproducing the arguments of John
Calvin and applying them to China in
anticipation of his arrest, with
instructions to have the declaration
released if he were held for more than 48
hours. Two months later, he and much of
his flock were jailed, and this statement
went out to the world.
As a fellow Christian and as a human
being, I am concerned about these
victims of oppression. But I am also
concerned about China, because my read
of history and of the data is that it is
dangerous to be a persecutor.
We here at Bowyer Research are
engaged in a research project that
compares the number of regime changes
since 2000 with the OpenDoorsUSA
watch list, which tracks the 50 countries
in which Christians are most persecuted.
Our findings so far indicate a clear
statistical relationship between
persecuting the church and regime
change. Unfortunately, there are some
JErry bOWyEr
NCB, two of the biggest corporates
listed on the Tadawul.
The new index was the logical and
most fruitful outcome of the decision
last year to grant Saudi Arabia
emerging market status by the index
compiler MSCI.
Many big global investors did not
want to go through that process, and in
many cases they were forbidden by
their constitutions from putting money
into a market that had not received the
seal of approval of an MSCI, or the
significant data-availability issues that we
are still working on. We only have recent
persecution data. Since the persecution
list (unfortunately) tends to be stable over
time, we think the analysis is worth taking
seriously, but the conclusion will be
somewhat tentative until we are able to
get longer-term persecution data.
There are 193 United Nations member
states (though we include Palestine in our
data). Of those members, roughly 23%
have experienced a regime change in the
past 19 years. But 38% of the countries in
the OpenDoorsUSA watchlist have
experienced a regime change.
Being on the watch list gives regimes
worse odds of survival than Russian
roulette. You might object that
underdeveloped countries in sub-
Saharan Africa are exaggerating the
correlation, in that their frequent regime
changes and trouble with Islamist
terrorism don't have a clear causal link.
But even if we remove the sub-Saharan
other compilers such as FTSE Russel
(which Tadawul will join later this
year).
Now, there is nothing to stop them
getting a slice of the Saudi action via the
new index. It will consist of about 30 of
the biggest stocks in the Kingdom,
though the composition can vary to
allow as many as 35 to be included. In a
while, the "MT30" - as the index will be
known - could be as commonplace a
phrase in the financial world as the S&P
500 or the FTSE 100, the leading
indices in New York and London.
The index compilers have put a cap at
15 percent for any individual stock's
proportion of the index, which is
designed to prevent an index or indeed
an exchange, being too reliant on the
performance of just one equity.
For the time being, that is fine, but
they may have to think again when
Saudi Aramco finally makes its longawaited
stock market debut. It will be so
big that it will certainly break the 15
percent ceiling. But the compilers and
policymakers have some time to think
about that.
In the meantime, the new index gives
foreign investors the opportunity to add
Saudi Arabia to their investment
portfolios in an affordable, efficient and
traceable way, while the Kingdom gets
access to the multitrillion-dollar passive
investment market.Bogle - whose
invention proved to be a "win-win" for
markets and investors - would certainly
have approved.
Source: Arab news
by persecuting Christians, Xi is risking his own regime
Apersonal message from Tolerance
Minister to Pope Francis When
his holiness Pope Francis arrives
in Abu Dhabi next week, it will be the
first ever Papal visit to the Arabian Gulf.
While this represents a milestone event
in its own right, it is also a powerful
testament to the longstanding values of
acceptance, coexistence, inclusivity,
tolerance and humanity that are
embedded in the very core of the United
Arab Emirates. Since the UAE's
foundation, the rights and liberties of all
creeds, sects and beliefs have been
safeguarded. Our constitution protects
freedom of spiritual expression and
explicitly prohibits any form of
discrimination based on religion or
race.
Pope Francis will find a country
where over one million Christians
practise their religion without
hindrance alongside a majority
Muslim population. Throughout the
UAE, over forty churches welcome
believers for prayers next door to
Mosques, as well as Hindu, Sikh and
Buddhist Temples. The UAE's
acceptance of all religions is an
expression of our leadership's
commitment to an open society, one
that welcomes people representing
over 200 nationalities and ethnicities
to work, live and thrive within our
borders. This generous attitude
toward others is a core tenet of our
Our findings so far indicate a clear statistical relationship
between persecuting the church and regime change.
Unfortunately, there are some significant data-availability
issues that we are still working on. We only have recent
persecution data. Since the persecution list (unfortunately)
tends to be stable over time, we think the analysis is worth
taking seriously, but the conclusion will be somewhat tentative
until we are able to get longer-term persecution data.
Dr. SUlTAN AHMED Al JAbEr
values, a key characteristic of our
culture and a fundamental pillar of
the vision of our founding father,
Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan al Nahyan.
He realized that both his country and
the wider region would benefit by
building bridges and making cultural
connections with the international
community. This philosophy
underpinned a foreign policy that
seeks to create partnerships
promoting prosperity around the
world, based on mutual respect. And
it is mirrored by a domestic policy
that treats differing cultures equally.
In this spirit, when the remains of a
seventh century Christian monastery
were discovered on Sir Bani Yas Island
in 1992, Sheikh Zayed insisted that it
be preserved both as a relic of shared
spiritual history and a present day,
potent symbol of cross-cultural
harmony. The UAE first established
diplomatic relations with the Vatican in
2007, and, since then, relations with
the Catholic Church have only
strengthened. A high level visit to the
Vatican followed in 2016 by HH Sheikh
Mohamed bin Zayed al Nahyan, Crown
Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy
Supreme Commander of the UAE
Armed Forces. Then, last year, HH
Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, Minister of
Foreign Affairs and International
Cooperation, hand delivered the
invitation for Pope Francis to make his
historic visit to the UAE.
During his visit, which will include a
public mass, the Pope will meet with
Sheikh Ahmad Al Tayyeb, the Grand
Imam of Al Azhar, and the chairman of
the Council of Muslim Elders. Bringing
together the spiritual leaders of the
Sunni and Catholic faiths, this meeting
African countries, we still see a very
strong correlation. More than half of all
the states outside sub-Saharan Africa that
have had a regime change since 2000 are
on the OpenDoorsUSA watchlist.
The Arab Spring is also very illustrative
of this relationship. All five of the Arab
Spring countries that experienced a
regime change in 2011 are on the
OpenDoorsUSA watchlist.
By repressing its Christian churches,
China finds itself in unstable company. If
President Xi paid attention to the
examples of recent history, he might
rethink how he deals with China's fastestgrowing
religion.
But if that's not enough to convince
him, perhaps a cursory examination of
Chinese history will. Xi is in the process of
making the same mistakes that led to one
of the most disastrous events in China's
history, which was a direct result of the
Chinese state persecuting a Christian
minority.The Taiping Rebellion, lasting
from 1850 to 1864, killed at least 20
million people, with some estimates
putting the death toll above 70 million -
higher than that of World War II. If Xi
follows in the footsteps of the Xianfeng
Emperor in 1850, his regime is at risk of
more political instability, violence, and
even regime change. It's as if Xi and the
leadership learned the wrong lesson from
the Taiping Civil War - viewing
Christianity in itself as the cause, rather
than the cause being the unjust
persecution of Christianity.
Source : Asia times
Pope in UAE: Celebrating diversity and tolerance in UAE
The UAE first established diplomatic relations with the Vatican in
2007, and, since then, relations with the Catholic Church have only
strengthened. A high level visit to the Vatican followed in 2016 by HH
Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi
and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces. Then,
last year, HH Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, Minister of Foreign Affairs
and International Cooperation, hand delivered the invitation for
Pope Francis to make his historic visit to the UAE.
will demonstrate a shared
commitment to the principles of
mutual respect, and peaceful
coexistence.
Coming in the "year of tolerance",
the Papal visit helps define what we
mean by this term. The visit
reinforces the UAE's ethos of active
inclusiveness and reminds us that
tolerance is not a passive state, but
requires constant, consistent action.
It is the same principle that drives
our focus on a fairer society, where
gender balance within our leading
institutions is being realized by being
prioritized.
It is in this context that we should
view next week's landmark events. By
hosting Pope Francis, we are sending a
message to all those living among us,
regardless of creed or culture, that they
should not merely feel accepted, but
are welcomed as active participants
and celebrated for the positive
contribution they make to the UAE.
The UAE is made stronger by the
diversity of the communities that have
chosen to make our country their
home. In embracing this diversity, the
UAE will continue to prosper, extend a
positive influence throughout the
wider region and encourage peaceful
coexistence globally.
Source : Gulf news