02-02-2019
You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles
YUMPU automatically turns print PDFs into web optimized ePapers that Google loves.
SCIENCE & TECH<br />
SATURdAy,<br />
FEBRUARy 2, <strong>2019</strong><br />
5<br />
What’s next for cryptocurrencies?<br />
Richard Partington<br />
Two years after its inception,<br />
10,000 bitcoin was just<br />
about enough to buy a<br />
couple of takeaway pizzas.<br />
Today those bitcoin would<br />
be worth nearly $38m<br />
(£30m). That is a huge<br />
increase, but just a fraction<br />
of their $180m value only 13<br />
months ago, because since<br />
its creation a decade ago this<br />
week, the digital currency<br />
has been at the centre of one<br />
of the biggest economic<br />
bubbles in history.<br />
Bitcoin has had a wild ride<br />
since its birth on 3 January<br />
2009. Created as a digital<br />
currency to sidestep the<br />
traditional finance industry<br />
using encrypted code, it took<br />
until May 2010 for the first<br />
reported purchase using<br />
bitcoin to take place: those<br />
two large Papa John's pizzas<br />
worth $30 for 10,000<br />
bitcoins.<br />
But in recent years bitcoin<br />
has become less useful as a<br />
medium of exchange and<br />
more famous for its boombust<br />
tendencies - drawing<br />
parallels to the Dutch tulip<br />
mania of 1637 and Dante's<br />
Inferno for its ability to lose<br />
investors millions of<br />
pounds.<br />
It surged by more than<br />
Is bitcoin the 'mother of all bubbles' or a niche investment?<br />
1,000%, sometimes gaining<br />
$2,500 in a single day, to<br />
stand at almost $20,000<br />
just before Christmas 2017.<br />
But the digital currency<br />
then crumpled over the<br />
course of last year, and<br />
yesterday stood at just<br />
$3,780, having wiped out<br />
many investments on the<br />
way down.<br />
Nouriel Roubini, one of<br />
the few economists to<br />
predict the 2008 financial<br />
crash and a former White<br />
House economic adviser is<br />
one of Bitcoin's most vocal<br />
critics. He has called it the<br />
"mother of all bubbles" and<br />
tweeted last month that<br />
it,and other crypto copycats<br />
like Ethereum and Litecoin,<br />
should be ranked in a "2018<br />
Shitcoin Hall/Pile of<br />
Manure Shame". But<br />
despite the cautionary<br />
warnings from mainstream<br />
Photo: Bloomberg<br />
economists, as well as the<br />
finance industry labelling<br />
bitcoin a vehicle for<br />
scammers, crooks and<br />
terrorists, there are still<br />
legions of cryptocurrency<br />
fans, with an online cottage<br />
industry of news websites,<br />
blogs and podcasts.<br />
The digital currency<br />
launched as more than just<br />
an opportunity for investors<br />
to make millions (before<br />
losing them almost equal<br />
amounts). The technology<br />
underlying it has excited<br />
businesses, while the<br />
growth of cryptocurrencies<br />
promised another future for<br />
its fans outside the<br />
traditional financial system.<br />
At its launch a decade ago,<br />
the very first block of bitcoin<br />
was etched with a<br />
subversive statement: "The<br />
Times 03/Jan/2009<br />
Chancellor on brink of<br />
second bailout for<br />
banks."The message from<br />
its creator - an unknown<br />
person or group of people<br />
going by the name Satoshi<br />
Nakamoto - was clear:<br />
bitcoin would exist outside<br />
of a system that had failed<br />
badly and could no longer<br />
be trusted.<br />
The idea came straight<br />
from the Austrian school<br />
of economics with a pinch<br />
of left-wing anarchism<br />
thrown in for good<br />
measure - offering<br />
individual liberty and a<br />
way to avoid the grasp of<br />
government, while<br />
sidestepping corporate<br />
power and the banking<br />
system.<br />
The birth of the digital<br />
currency represented a<br />
return to the days of<br />
private money in the<br />
earlier stages of western<br />
economic development,<br />
with a parallel to wildcat<br />
banks in the mid 19th<br />
century as the US expanded<br />
westward, when railway<br />
companies and<br />
construction firms issued<br />
thousands of banknotes<br />
between them. Scores of<br />
bitcoin copycats have<br />
emerged, hoping to ride the<br />
wave of euphoria evident in<br />
2017, launched through<br />
initial coin offerings (ICOs)<br />
that in several cases turned<br />
out to be fraudulent scams.<br />
How to recover an email<br />
address of a stolen device?<br />
Jack Schofield<br />
First, recover your phone<br />
number, which is much<br />
more important than the<br />
phone. When a phone is<br />
either lost or stolen, you<br />
should immediately contact<br />
your mobile network<br />
provider to tell them what's<br />
happened. They should then<br />
suspend the current sim and<br />
send you a replacement sim<br />
with the same phone<br />
number. This service should<br />
be free but sometimes incurs<br />
a nominal charge. It won't<br />
get your phone back, but it<br />
will make it harder for the<br />
thief to log on to your<br />
accounts and change your<br />
passwords.<br />
Some network providers<br />
can also block your<br />
handset's<br />
IMEI<br />
(International Mobile<br />
Equipment Identity)<br />
number. This makes it<br />
harder for the thief to use<br />
your phone with a different<br />
sim. Of course, you will need<br />
to be able to show that you<br />
own your phone number,<br />
and different companies<br />
may have different systems<br />
for different types of<br />
account. My advice is to be<br />
prepared. I wasn't, and it<br />
wasn't fun.<br />
When I lost my phone in<br />
November - I left it on a<br />
plane in Kuala Lumpur - I<br />
phoned O2 but couldn't pass<br />
the recovery tests, which<br />
included providing some<br />
numbers I'd dialled in the<br />
past three months. Being<br />
6,500 miles from home, I<br />
couldn't look up the phone<br />
number of my window<br />
cleaner, whose surname I<br />
couldn't remember.<br />
Back in the UK three<br />
weeks later, an O2 store<br />
refused to accept any other<br />
evidence that I owned this<br />
pay-as-you-go number,<br />
which was originally<br />
supplied by BT Cellnet<br />
before O2 was launched in<br />
20<strong>02</strong>. It was on my business<br />
cards, in ancient emails, in<br />
online media databases and<br />
so on. I could also prove I<br />
owned the bank account that<br />
paid for its minutes. O2<br />
wouldn't budge. Only after<br />
Someone's mobile was taken and his password changed. How can he get<br />
back into his inbox?<br />
Photo: Epoxydude<br />
digging out my window<br />
cleaner's phone number did<br />
I eventually get a<br />
replacement sim.<br />
Not carrying around a<br />
written list of the numbers<br />
I'd dialled was clearly a bad<br />
mistake on my part, but full<br />
marks to O2 for using the<br />
Data Protection Act to put<br />
my personal data at risk. If<br />
you have not yet lost your<br />
phone, or had it stolen, I<br />
strongly suggest that you<br />
find out what will happen if<br />
you do. You could easily<br />
lose a number you've used<br />
for 20-odd years. While<br />
trying to recover my<br />
number, I took steps to<br />
limit the damage someone<br />
could do if they were able<br />
to use my lost phone. You<br />
should likewise log on to<br />
any other accounts that<br />
hold your phone number,<br />
such as Facebook,<br />
LinkedIn, Twitter and so<br />
on, including any mobile<br />
banking or payment<br />
systems. Set up and<br />
confirm an alternative<br />
email address as a way of<br />
recovering your accounts,<br />
delete the compromised<br />
phone number, and change<br />
your passwords before the<br />
thief can do the same thing.<br />
You can also try to disable<br />
or erase your phone<br />
remotely, via the web. If it's<br />
an iPhone, log on with your<br />
Apple ID and use Lost<br />
Mode, which is part of Find<br />
My Phone. If it's an Android<br />
phone, log on to your Google<br />
account and go to Find My<br />
Device. This does depend on<br />
certain conditions, one of<br />
which is that the lost or<br />
stolen phone must have a<br />
mobile or wifi network<br />
connection. I did try to erase<br />
my lost phone, because it<br />
was backed up to Google<br />
Drive. I failed because, as far<br />
as I could tell, it was never<br />
switched on. It may still be<br />
flying between London and<br />
KL.<br />
As we grow wiser to marketing, advertisers are finding new ways and places to plug products.<br />
Photo: James Melaugh<br />
Why the ad-free era is over<br />
Chris Stokel-Walker<br />
We've weaned ourselves off banner<br />
advertisements, with a fifth of us using<br />
ad blockers in our internet browsers,<br />
according to research firm eMarketer.<br />
So-called "native advertising" online,<br />
where advertising is presented in a<br />
similar way to editorial, has failed to<br />
take off. A US study last year from<br />
Stanford University found native<br />
advertising is no better at getting us to<br />
buy than standard online ads.<br />
"Consumers are very good at filtering<br />
out messages," explains Lisa Du-Lieu, a<br />
senior lecturer in marketing at<br />
Huddersfield University. "If you don't<br />
get their attention within the first<br />
couple of seconds, it just bounces off<br />
them."<br />
For that reason, brands are shifting<br />
their attention to platforms and<br />
formats that they know we are engaged<br />
with. "Advertising goes where the<br />
eyeballs go," says James Whatley, an<br />
independent advertising expert,<br />
formerly of global advertising agency<br />
Ogilvy.<br />
However, a large part of the user<br />
appeal of some of these platforms, such<br />
as WhatsApp or Alexa, is that they are<br />
currently ad-free. So ads encroaching<br />
on hitherto virgin territory could raise<br />
some hackles. Nevertheless, you can<br />
expect ads in places you might not have<br />
expected before. Batten down the<br />
hatches and prepare yourself for the<br />
advertising onslaught.<br />
Ogilvy's <strong>2019</strong> trends report revealed<br />
how smart speakers will soon be the<br />
latest platform for their dark arts.<br />
While such smart speakers have all<br />
kinds of bells and whistles, many of us<br />
use them as little more than glorified<br />
digital radios. "Localised advertising<br />
can be sent to that," explains Whatley.<br />
"It isn't an exciting thing, but for an<br />
advertiser it becomes attractive<br />
because you can do personalised,<br />
locally relevant advertising through<br />
what is a forgotten channel."<br />
By cross-checking your IP address,<br />
search history made through the device<br />
and its location, advertisers could soon<br />
send you hyper-localised<br />
advertisements interspersed in your<br />
ordinary digital radio content. Has your<br />
local Tesco ordered too many boxes of<br />
biscuits? Enjoy flash sales that will save<br />
you money as you listen along to the<br />
latest chart music.<br />
This method of advertising is already<br />
encroaching on our screen time, with<br />
brands partnering with Snapchat to<br />
create custom branded lenses<br />
(augmented reality widgets that can<br />
transform you into a dog with a giant,<br />
unfurling lapping tongue, for instance)<br />
for the best part of a year. But <strong>2019</strong> will<br />
see it take off, according to experts.<br />
It also enables brands to advertise<br />
directly to a hard-to-reach and<br />
pernickety demographic. "Millennials<br />
like things that are quirky," says Du-<br />
Lieu. "Snapchat filters are just a way of<br />
pushing out the message and creating<br />
what's called PBA: positive brand<br />
associations." It's also (comparatively)<br />
cheap: placing a custom branded lens<br />
available for anyone using Snapchat in<br />
London's Hyde Park over the course of<br />
a day costs just under £850. If you're<br />
Wall's wanting to drive Calippo envy on<br />
a particularly hot day, such a small,<br />
localised outlay might make fiscal<br />
sense.<br />
Such methods of advertising take<br />
advantage of the social element of<br />
social networks. By sharing our<br />
augmented ad with your friends, you're<br />
unwittingly doing the work for the<br />
brand. "When users connect with a<br />
product on a cognitive and affective<br />
level, by thinking and feeling," says Du-<br />
Lieu, "they push it out to their<br />
networks." In other words: if you want<br />
something to go viral, make it fun.<br />
Nudging users to pick their product<br />
over another, often in a subconscious<br />
way, is becoming the predominant way<br />
of an advertiser getting its message out<br />
there. Jay Owens of Pulsar, an<br />
"audience intelligence and social<br />
listening platform", describes this as<br />
"shaping the decision architectures and<br />
choice offered to people".<br />
Amazon, as one of the major conduits<br />
through which we spend vast amounts<br />
of money, is leading the way in this<br />
semi-stealthy sponsored advertising.<br />
Analysts Piper Jaffray estimate that<br />
Amazon's advertising business could<br />
surpass its mammoth web-hosting<br />
business by 2<strong>02</strong>1 - in part thanks to<br />
what the advertising industry would<br />
call "sponsored skills" and "branded<br />
solutions" but users might describe as<br />
"sneaky".<br />
It could be as simple as suggesting a<br />
branded product when you ask Alexa<br />
how to get rid of that stain on your<br />
shirt, or slipping a particular brand into<br />
your Amazon shopping basket when<br />
you ask Alexa to order you new<br />
washing-up liquid.<br />
Sounds like a dystopian future? It's<br />
already here. Amazon has been rapped<br />
on the knuckles for stealthily plugging<br />
products by putting sponsored listings<br />
in among actual curated listings and<br />
making the text so tiny that you don't<br />
notice.<br />
Facebook posts record profit<br />
despite year of scandal<br />
Julia Carrie Wong<br />
Facebook closed the book<br />
on its scandal-plagued year<br />
Wednesday, with strong<br />
fourth quarter financial<br />
results that beat analyst<br />
expectations for earnings<br />
and revenue. The results<br />
highlighted how divorced<br />
Facebook's business success<br />
is from its public reputation,<br />
which suffered another<br />
blow Wednesday when<br />
Apple punished the app<br />
maker for violating its rules<br />
with a program that paid<br />
users as young as 13 to<br />
install an app that surveilled<br />
them.<br />
The company posted a<br />
record profit of $6.88bn for<br />
the final three months of<br />
2018, compared with<br />
$4.27bn the year before,<br />
with revenue rising 30% to<br />
$16.64bn. Key usage<br />
metrics - daily active users<br />
and monthly active users -<br />
both saw 9% year-over-year<br />
growth. Facebook now<br />
estimates that it has 2bn<br />
daily active users of at least<br />
one of its entire "family" of<br />
apps - Facebook,<br />
Instagram, Messenger and<br />
WhatsApp.<br />
The positive results for<br />
revenue and user growth<br />
sent shares soaring 8% in<br />
after-hours trading.<br />
Crucially, usage metrics<br />
grew across all geographic<br />
regions, including slight<br />
growth in Europe and<br />
North America. In July,<br />
Facebook's stock price<br />
plummeted after the<br />
second-quarter earnings<br />
showed stagnating user<br />
growth in North America<br />
and a slight decline in<br />
Europe.<br />
On a conference call with<br />
investors, executives Mark<br />
Zuckerberg and Sheryl<br />
Sandberg sketched a path<br />
for the company to move<br />
forward from the constant<br />
damage control mode of<br />
2018. Both executives<br />
attempted to frame the<br />
company's extensive<br />
problems - such as the<br />
misuse of private data,<br />
rampant misinformation,<br />
and foreign influence<br />
operations - as "social<br />
issues" endemic to the<br />
internet as a whole, and not<br />
particular to Facebook.<br />
Zuckerberg asserted that<br />
Facebook<br />
had<br />
"fundamentally changed<br />
how we run this company"<br />
and greatly improved its<br />
systems to reduce future<br />
problems. As such, he<br />
suggested that in <strong>2019</strong>, the<br />
company would be able to<br />
refocus on product<br />
development to "deliver<br />
more experiences that<br />
meaningfully improve<br />
people's lives" with new<br />
innovations in messaging,<br />
payments, groups, video<br />
and hardware.<br />
Among the product<br />
changes is a planned<br />
integration of messaging<br />
platforms for WhatsApp,<br />
Instagram and Messenger,<br />
which was first reported by<br />
the New York Times last<br />
week. Zuckerberg<br />
confirmed that the<br />
company was considering<br />
this change, which he said<br />
was still a "long term<br />
project" and would see<br />
more of Facebook's<br />
products using end-to-end<br />
encryption.<br />
"Facebook might have<br />
delivered its weakest<br />
quarterly revenue growth<br />
since listing in 2012, but<br />
these numbers are actually<br />
some of the most reassuring<br />
in its short history," said<br />
George Salmon, an equity<br />
analyst at Hargreaves<br />
Lansdown. "The way that I<br />
feel starting <strong>2019</strong> is that we<br />
have clear roadmaps<br />
looking at what we need to<br />
do," Zuckerberg said. "I do<br />
feel like we've started to turn<br />
Facebook's fourth-quarter results highlighted<br />
the distance between its business success and its<br />
public reputation. Photo: Charles Platiau<br />
a corner and have a clear<br />
plan for what we need to do<br />
now."