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SCIENCE & TECH<br />

SATURdAy,<br />

FEBRUARy 2, <strong>2019</strong><br />

5<br />

What’s next for cryptocurrencies?<br />

Richard Partington<br />

Two years after its inception,<br />

10,000 bitcoin was just<br />

about enough to buy a<br />

couple of takeaway pizzas.<br />

Today those bitcoin would<br />

be worth nearly $38m<br />

(£30m). That is a huge<br />

increase, but just a fraction<br />

of their $180m value only 13<br />

months ago, because since<br />

its creation a decade ago this<br />

week, the digital currency<br />

has been at the centre of one<br />

of the biggest economic<br />

bubbles in history.<br />

Bitcoin has had a wild ride<br />

since its birth on 3 January<br />

2009. Created as a digital<br />

currency to sidestep the<br />

traditional finance industry<br />

using encrypted code, it took<br />

until May 2010 for the first<br />

reported purchase using<br />

bitcoin to take place: those<br />

two large Papa John's pizzas<br />

worth $30 for 10,000<br />

bitcoins.<br />

But in recent years bitcoin<br />

has become less useful as a<br />

medium of exchange and<br />

more famous for its boombust<br />

tendencies - drawing<br />

parallels to the Dutch tulip<br />

mania of 1637 and Dante's<br />

Inferno for its ability to lose<br />

investors millions of<br />

pounds.<br />

It surged by more than<br />

Is bitcoin the 'mother of all bubbles' or a niche investment?<br />

1,000%, sometimes gaining<br />

$2,500 in a single day, to<br />

stand at almost $20,000<br />

just before Christmas 2017.<br />

But the digital currency<br />

then crumpled over the<br />

course of last year, and<br />

yesterday stood at just<br />

$3,780, having wiped out<br />

many investments on the<br />

way down.<br />

Nouriel Roubini, one of<br />

the few economists to<br />

predict the 2008 financial<br />

crash and a former White<br />

House economic adviser is<br />

one of Bitcoin's most vocal<br />

critics. He has called it the<br />

"mother of all bubbles" and<br />

tweeted last month that<br />

it,and other crypto copycats<br />

like Ethereum and Litecoin,<br />

should be ranked in a "2018<br />

Shitcoin Hall/Pile of<br />

Manure Shame". But<br />

despite the cautionary<br />

warnings from mainstream<br />

Photo: Bloomberg<br />

economists, as well as the<br />

finance industry labelling<br />

bitcoin a vehicle for<br />

scammers, crooks and<br />

terrorists, there are still<br />

legions of cryptocurrency<br />

fans, with an online cottage<br />

industry of news websites,<br />

blogs and podcasts.<br />

The digital currency<br />

launched as more than just<br />

an opportunity for investors<br />

to make millions (before<br />

losing them almost equal<br />

amounts). The technology<br />

underlying it has excited<br />

businesses, while the<br />

growth of cryptocurrencies<br />

promised another future for<br />

its fans outside the<br />

traditional financial system.<br />

At its launch a decade ago,<br />

the very first block of bitcoin<br />

was etched with a<br />

subversive statement: "The<br />

Times 03/Jan/2009<br />

Chancellor on brink of<br />

second bailout for<br />

banks."The message from<br />

its creator - an unknown<br />

person or group of people<br />

going by the name Satoshi<br />

Nakamoto - was clear:<br />

bitcoin would exist outside<br />

of a system that had failed<br />

badly and could no longer<br />

be trusted.<br />

The idea came straight<br />

from the Austrian school<br />

of economics with a pinch<br />

of left-wing anarchism<br />

thrown in for good<br />

measure - offering<br />

individual liberty and a<br />

way to avoid the grasp of<br />

government, while<br />

sidestepping corporate<br />

power and the banking<br />

system.<br />

The birth of the digital<br />

currency represented a<br />

return to the days of<br />

private money in the<br />

earlier stages of western<br />

economic development,<br />

with a parallel to wildcat<br />

banks in the mid 19th<br />

century as the US expanded<br />

westward, when railway<br />

companies and<br />

construction firms issued<br />

thousands of banknotes<br />

between them. Scores of<br />

bitcoin copycats have<br />

emerged, hoping to ride the<br />

wave of euphoria evident in<br />

2017, launched through<br />

initial coin offerings (ICOs)<br />

that in several cases turned<br />

out to be fraudulent scams.<br />

How to recover an email<br />

address of a stolen device?<br />

Jack Schofield<br />

First, recover your phone<br />

number, which is much<br />

more important than the<br />

phone. When a phone is<br />

either lost or stolen, you<br />

should immediately contact<br />

your mobile network<br />

provider to tell them what's<br />

happened. They should then<br />

suspend the current sim and<br />

send you a replacement sim<br />

with the same phone<br />

number. This service should<br />

be free but sometimes incurs<br />

a nominal charge. It won't<br />

get your phone back, but it<br />

will make it harder for the<br />

thief to log on to your<br />

accounts and change your<br />

passwords.<br />

Some network providers<br />

can also block your<br />

handset's<br />

IMEI<br />

(International Mobile<br />

Equipment Identity)<br />

number. This makes it<br />

harder for the thief to use<br />

your phone with a different<br />

sim. Of course, you will need<br />

to be able to show that you<br />

own your phone number,<br />

and different companies<br />

may have different systems<br />

for different types of<br />

account. My advice is to be<br />

prepared. I wasn't, and it<br />

wasn't fun.<br />

When I lost my phone in<br />

November - I left it on a<br />

plane in Kuala Lumpur - I<br />

phoned O2 but couldn't pass<br />

the recovery tests, which<br />

included providing some<br />

numbers I'd dialled in the<br />

past three months. Being<br />

6,500 miles from home, I<br />

couldn't look up the phone<br />

number of my window<br />

cleaner, whose surname I<br />

couldn't remember.<br />

Back in the UK three<br />

weeks later, an O2 store<br />

refused to accept any other<br />

evidence that I owned this<br />

pay-as-you-go number,<br />

which was originally<br />

supplied by BT Cellnet<br />

before O2 was launched in<br />

20<strong>02</strong>. It was on my business<br />

cards, in ancient emails, in<br />

online media databases and<br />

so on. I could also prove I<br />

owned the bank account that<br />

paid for its minutes. O2<br />

wouldn't budge. Only after<br />

Someone's mobile was taken and his password changed. How can he get<br />

back into his inbox?<br />

Photo: Epoxydude<br />

digging out my window<br />

cleaner's phone number did<br />

I eventually get a<br />

replacement sim.<br />

Not carrying around a<br />

written list of the numbers<br />

I'd dialled was clearly a bad<br />

mistake on my part, but full<br />

marks to O2 for using the<br />

Data Protection Act to put<br />

my personal data at risk. If<br />

you have not yet lost your<br />

phone, or had it stolen, I<br />

strongly suggest that you<br />

find out what will happen if<br />

you do. You could easily<br />

lose a number you've used<br />

for 20-odd years. While<br />

trying to recover my<br />

number, I took steps to<br />

limit the damage someone<br />

could do if they were able<br />

to use my lost phone. You<br />

should likewise log on to<br />

any other accounts that<br />

hold your phone number,<br />

such as Facebook,<br />

LinkedIn, Twitter and so<br />

on, including any mobile<br />

banking or payment<br />

systems. Set up and<br />

confirm an alternative<br />

email address as a way of<br />

recovering your accounts,<br />

delete the compromised<br />

phone number, and change<br />

your passwords before the<br />

thief can do the same thing.<br />

You can also try to disable<br />

or erase your phone<br />

remotely, via the web. If it's<br />

an iPhone, log on with your<br />

Apple ID and use Lost<br />

Mode, which is part of Find<br />

My Phone. If it's an Android<br />

phone, log on to your Google<br />

account and go to Find My<br />

Device. This does depend on<br />

certain conditions, one of<br />

which is that the lost or<br />

stolen phone must have a<br />

mobile or wifi network<br />

connection. I did try to erase<br />

my lost phone, because it<br />

was backed up to Google<br />

Drive. I failed because, as far<br />

as I could tell, it was never<br />

switched on. It may still be<br />

flying between London and<br />

KL.<br />

As we grow wiser to marketing, advertisers are finding new ways and places to plug products.<br />

Photo: James Melaugh<br />

Why the ad-free era is over<br />

Chris Stokel-Walker<br />

We've weaned ourselves off banner<br />

advertisements, with a fifth of us using<br />

ad blockers in our internet browsers,<br />

according to research firm eMarketer.<br />

So-called "native advertising" online,<br />

where advertising is presented in a<br />

similar way to editorial, has failed to<br />

take off. A US study last year from<br />

Stanford University found native<br />

advertising is no better at getting us to<br />

buy than standard online ads.<br />

"Consumers are very good at filtering<br />

out messages," explains Lisa Du-Lieu, a<br />

senior lecturer in marketing at<br />

Huddersfield University. "If you don't<br />

get their attention within the first<br />

couple of seconds, it just bounces off<br />

them."<br />

For that reason, brands are shifting<br />

their attention to platforms and<br />

formats that they know we are engaged<br />

with. "Advertising goes where the<br />

eyeballs go," says James Whatley, an<br />

independent advertising expert,<br />

formerly of global advertising agency<br />

Ogilvy.<br />

However, a large part of the user<br />

appeal of some of these platforms, such<br />

as WhatsApp or Alexa, is that they are<br />

currently ad-free. So ads encroaching<br />

on hitherto virgin territory could raise<br />

some hackles. Nevertheless, you can<br />

expect ads in places you might not have<br />

expected before. Batten down the<br />

hatches and prepare yourself for the<br />

advertising onslaught.<br />

Ogilvy's <strong>2019</strong> trends report revealed<br />

how smart speakers will soon be the<br />

latest platform for their dark arts.<br />

While such smart speakers have all<br />

kinds of bells and whistles, many of us<br />

use them as little more than glorified<br />

digital radios. "Localised advertising<br />

can be sent to that," explains Whatley.<br />

"It isn't an exciting thing, but for an<br />

advertiser it becomes attractive<br />

because you can do personalised,<br />

locally relevant advertising through<br />

what is a forgotten channel."<br />

By cross-checking your IP address,<br />

search history made through the device<br />

and its location, advertisers could soon<br />

send you hyper-localised<br />

advertisements interspersed in your<br />

ordinary digital radio content. Has your<br />

local Tesco ordered too many boxes of<br />

biscuits? Enjoy flash sales that will save<br />

you money as you listen along to the<br />

latest chart music.<br />

This method of advertising is already<br />

encroaching on our screen time, with<br />

brands partnering with Snapchat to<br />

create custom branded lenses<br />

(augmented reality widgets that can<br />

transform you into a dog with a giant,<br />

unfurling lapping tongue, for instance)<br />

for the best part of a year. But <strong>2019</strong> will<br />

see it take off, according to experts.<br />

It also enables brands to advertise<br />

directly to a hard-to-reach and<br />

pernickety demographic. "Millennials<br />

like things that are quirky," says Du-<br />

Lieu. "Snapchat filters are just a way of<br />

pushing out the message and creating<br />

what's called PBA: positive brand<br />

associations." It's also (comparatively)<br />

cheap: placing a custom branded lens<br />

available for anyone using Snapchat in<br />

London's Hyde Park over the course of<br />

a day costs just under £850. If you're<br />

Wall's wanting to drive Calippo envy on<br />

a particularly hot day, such a small,<br />

localised outlay might make fiscal<br />

sense.<br />

Such methods of advertising take<br />

advantage of the social element of<br />

social networks. By sharing our<br />

augmented ad with your friends, you're<br />

unwittingly doing the work for the<br />

brand. "When users connect with a<br />

product on a cognitive and affective<br />

level, by thinking and feeling," says Du-<br />

Lieu, "they push it out to their<br />

networks." In other words: if you want<br />

something to go viral, make it fun.<br />

Nudging users to pick their product<br />

over another, often in a subconscious<br />

way, is becoming the predominant way<br />

of an advertiser getting its message out<br />

there. Jay Owens of Pulsar, an<br />

"audience intelligence and social<br />

listening platform", describes this as<br />

"shaping the decision architectures and<br />

choice offered to people".<br />

Amazon, as one of the major conduits<br />

through which we spend vast amounts<br />

of money, is leading the way in this<br />

semi-stealthy sponsored advertising.<br />

Analysts Piper Jaffray estimate that<br />

Amazon's advertising business could<br />

surpass its mammoth web-hosting<br />

business by 2<strong>02</strong>1 - in part thanks to<br />

what the advertising industry would<br />

call "sponsored skills" and "branded<br />

solutions" but users might describe as<br />

"sneaky".<br />

It could be as simple as suggesting a<br />

branded product when you ask Alexa<br />

how to get rid of that stain on your<br />

shirt, or slipping a particular brand into<br />

your Amazon shopping basket when<br />

you ask Alexa to order you new<br />

washing-up liquid.<br />

Sounds like a dystopian future? It's<br />

already here. Amazon has been rapped<br />

on the knuckles for stealthily plugging<br />

products by putting sponsored listings<br />

in among actual curated listings and<br />

making the text so tiny that you don't<br />

notice.<br />

Facebook posts record profit<br />

despite year of scandal<br />

Julia Carrie Wong<br />

Facebook closed the book<br />

on its scandal-plagued year<br />

Wednesday, with strong<br />

fourth quarter financial<br />

results that beat analyst<br />

expectations for earnings<br />

and revenue. The results<br />

highlighted how divorced<br />

Facebook's business success<br />

is from its public reputation,<br />

which suffered another<br />

blow Wednesday when<br />

Apple punished the app<br />

maker for violating its rules<br />

with a program that paid<br />

users as young as 13 to<br />

install an app that surveilled<br />

them.<br />

The company posted a<br />

record profit of $6.88bn for<br />

the final three months of<br />

2018, compared with<br />

$4.27bn the year before,<br />

with revenue rising 30% to<br />

$16.64bn. Key usage<br />

metrics - daily active users<br />

and monthly active users -<br />

both saw 9% year-over-year<br />

growth. Facebook now<br />

estimates that it has 2bn<br />

daily active users of at least<br />

one of its entire "family" of<br />

apps - Facebook,<br />

Instagram, Messenger and<br />

WhatsApp.<br />

The positive results for<br />

revenue and user growth<br />

sent shares soaring 8% in<br />

after-hours trading.<br />

Crucially, usage metrics<br />

grew across all geographic<br />

regions, including slight<br />

growth in Europe and<br />

North America. In July,<br />

Facebook's stock price<br />

plummeted after the<br />

second-quarter earnings<br />

showed stagnating user<br />

growth in North America<br />

and a slight decline in<br />

Europe.<br />

On a conference call with<br />

investors, executives Mark<br />

Zuckerberg and Sheryl<br />

Sandberg sketched a path<br />

for the company to move<br />

forward from the constant<br />

damage control mode of<br />

2018. Both executives<br />

attempted to frame the<br />

company's extensive<br />

problems - such as the<br />

misuse of private data,<br />

rampant misinformation,<br />

and foreign influence<br />

operations - as "social<br />

issues" endemic to the<br />

internet as a whole, and not<br />

particular to Facebook.<br />

Zuckerberg asserted that<br />

Facebook<br />

had<br />

"fundamentally changed<br />

how we run this company"<br />

and greatly improved its<br />

systems to reduce future<br />

problems. As such, he<br />

suggested that in <strong>2019</strong>, the<br />

company would be able to<br />

refocus on product<br />

development to "deliver<br />

more experiences that<br />

meaningfully improve<br />

people's lives" with new<br />

innovations in messaging,<br />

payments, groups, video<br />

and hardware.<br />

Among the product<br />

changes is a planned<br />

integration of messaging<br />

platforms for WhatsApp,<br />

Instagram and Messenger,<br />

which was first reported by<br />

the New York Times last<br />

week. Zuckerberg<br />

confirmed that the<br />

company was considering<br />

this change, which he said<br />

was still a "long term<br />

project" and would see<br />

more of Facebook's<br />

products using end-to-end<br />

encryption.<br />

"Facebook might have<br />

delivered its weakest<br />

quarterly revenue growth<br />

since listing in 2012, but<br />

these numbers are actually<br />

some of the most reassuring<br />

in its short history," said<br />

George Salmon, an equity<br />

analyst at Hargreaves<br />

Lansdown. "The way that I<br />

feel starting <strong>2019</strong> is that we<br />

have clear roadmaps<br />

looking at what we need to<br />

do," Zuckerberg said. "I do<br />

feel like we've started to turn<br />

Facebook's fourth-quarter results highlighted<br />

the distance between its business success and its<br />

public reputation. Photo: Charles Platiau<br />

a corner and have a clear<br />

plan for what we need to do<br />

now."

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