Contact_Vol19No1_March2019_WEB full and final

Energy
The future
of fossil fuels
Trinidad and Tobago’s energy industry is more than a century old,
and the country depends heavily on it for revenue. It will still have
its place in the future economy, especially if its current constraints
are addressed
by Anthony Paul
Principal Energy & Strategy Consultant,
Association of Caribbean Energy Specialists Limited
None of these factors suggests
that the global life of oil and gas
will be over in the next 50 years
At government’s stated
sustainable production levels
of 4.2 billion cubic feet per
day, new reserves may be able
to support existing plants for
decades to come
To paraphrase Mark Twain: “The rumours of the death of oil are greatly
exaggerated.”
Outlooks for the global energy mix over the next 20 to 30 years, from
major international oil and gas companies like BP, Equinor (formerly Statoil),
ExxonMobil, Shell and Total, as well as consultancies, research institutions and
the International Energy Agency, all point to a future where energy demand
grows, and the greatest increase in market share is taken by renewables.
Interestingly, in that same timeframe, while the share of oil and gas
declines, actual demand for both is predicted to grow under current global
policy scenarios, with gas replacing oil as an energy source to reduce harmful
effects on the environment.
As technology advances rapidly on many fronts, it makes renewables more
efficient and competitive, and the discovery and production of more oil and gas
easier; it also reduces the impact of fossil fuels on the environment.
These factors point to a dynamic range of scenarios, none of which suggests
that the global life of oil and gas will be over in the next 50 years. There is still
enough time to invest and benefit.
Maximising our remaining resources
But what about Trinidad and Tobago? How long does our industry have again?
The Ministry of Energy and Energy Industries uses its annual Scott-Ryder
audit to better understand the energy industry’s growth. This approach is an
unnecessary public expenditure, as exploration companies are required to do
the same, and the ministry has the authority to dictate how this is done so that
it meets their requirements.
Further, the approach taken grossly understates the potential of our already
discovered fields and geological basins, dissuading investment in exploration
and indigenous research and development. The reserves audit has limited scope,
relative to the potential of the basins.
CHAMBER.ORG.TT
MARCH 2019 9