THE FUTURE OF EMPLOYMENT: HOW SUSCEPTIBLE ARE JOBS TO COMPUTERIZATION?

substitution will be confined to routine tasks, our model predicts that computerisation
can be extended to any non-routine task that is not subject to any engineering
bottlenecks to computerisation. These bottlenecks thus set the boundaries
for the computerisation of non-routine tasks. Drawing upon the ML and
MR literature, and a workshop held at the Oxford University Engineering Sciences
Department, we identify several engineering bottlenecks, corresponding
to three task categories. According to these findings, non-susceptible labor inputs
can be described as,
(2) L NS =
n∑ ( )
LPM,i +L C,i +L SI,i
i=1
where L PM , L C and L SI are labour inputs into perception and manipulation
tasks, creative intelligence tasks, and and social intelligence tasks.
We note that some related engineering bottlenecks can be partially alleviated
by the simplification of tasks. One generic way of achieving this is to reduce
the variation between task iterations. As a prototypical example, consider
the factory assembly line, turning the non-routine tasks of the artisan shop into
repetitive routine tasks performed by unskilled factory workers. A more recent
example is the computerisation of non-routine manual tasks in construction.
On-site construction tasks typically demand a high degree of adaptability, so
as to accommodate work environments that are typically irregularly laid out,
and vary according to weather. Prefabrication, in which the construction object
is partially assembled in a factory before being transported to the construction
site, provides a way of largely removing the requirement for adaptability. It allows
many construction tasks to be performed by robots under controlled conditions
that eliminate task variability – a method that is becoming increasingly
widespread, particularly in Japan (Barlow and Ozaki, 2005; Linner and Bock,
2012). The extent of computerisation in the twenty-first century will thus partly
depend on innovative approaches to task restructuring. In the remainder of this
section we examine the engineering bottlenecks related to the above mentioned
task categories, each in turn.
Perception and manipulation tasks. Robots are still unable to match the
depth and breadth of human perception. While basic geometric identification is
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