THE FUTURE OF EMPLOYMENT: HOW SUSCEPTIBLE ARE JOBS TO COMPUTERIZATION?
We examine how susceptible jobs are to computerization. To assess this, we begin by implementing a novel methodology to estimate the probability of computerization for 702 detailed occupations, using a Gaussian process classifier. Based on these estimates, we examine expected impacts of future computerization on US labor market outcomes, with the primary objective of analyzing the number of jobs at risk and the relationship between an occupation’s probability of computerization, wages and educational attainment. According to our estimates, about 47 percent of total US employment is at risk. We further provide evidence that wages and educational attainment exhibit a strong negative relationship with an occupation’s probability of computerization.
We examine how susceptible jobs are to computerization. To assess this, we begin by implementing a novel methodology to estimate the probability of computerization for 702 detailed occupations, using a Gaussian process classifier. Based on these estimates, we examine expected impacts of future computerization on US labor market outcomes, with the primary objective of analyzing the number of jobs at risk and the relationship between an occupation’s probability of computerization, wages and educational attainment. According to our estimates, about 47 percent of total US employment is at risk. We further provide evidence that wages and educational attainment exhibit a strong negative relationship with an occupation’s probability of computerization.
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Computerisable<br />
Rank Probability Label SOC code Occupation<br />
275. 0.41 51-2041 Structural Metal Fabricators and Fitters<br />
276. 0.41 1 23-1012 Judicial Law Clerks<br />
277. 0.41 49-2094 Electrical and Electronics Repairers, Commercial and Industrial Equipment<br />
278. 0.42 19-4093 Forest and Conservation Technicians<br />
279. 0.42 53-1021 First-Line Supervisors of Helpers, Laborers, and Material Movers,<br />
Hand<br />
280. 0.43 39-3093 Locker Room, Coatroom, and Dressing Room Attendants<br />
281. 0.43 19-2099 Physical Scientists, All Other<br />
282. 0.43 0 19-3011 Economists<br />
283. 0.44 19-3093 Historians<br />
284. 0.45 51-9082 Medical Appliance Technicians<br />
285. 0.46 43-4031 Court, Municipal, and License Clerks<br />
286. 0.47 13-1141 Compensation, Benefits, and Job Analysis Specialists<br />
287. 0.47 31-1013 Psychiatric Aides<br />
288. 0.47 29-2012 Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technicians<br />
289. 0.48 33-2021 Fire Inspectors and Investigators<br />
290. 0.48 17-3021 Aerospace Engineering and Operations Technicians<br />
291. 0.48 27-1026 Merchandise Displayers and Window Trimmers<br />
292. 0.48 47-5031 Explosives Workers, Ordnance Handling Experts, and Blasters<br />
293. 0.48 15-1131 Computer Programmers<br />
294. 0.49 33-9091 Crossing Guards<br />
295. 0.49 17-2021 Agricultural Engineers<br />
296. 0.49 47-5061 Roof Bolters, Mining<br />
297. 0.49 49-9052 Telecommunications Line Installers and Repairers<br />
298. 0.49 43-5031 Police, Fire, and Ambulance Dispatchers<br />
299. 0.5 53-7033 Loading Machine Operators, Underground Mining<br />
300. 0.5 49-9799 Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Workers, All Other<br />
301. 0.5 23-2091 Court Reporters<br />
302. 0.51 41-9011 Demonstrators and Product Promoters<br />
303. 0.51 31-9091 Dental Assistants<br />
304. 0.52 51-6041 Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers<br />
305. 0.52 17-3011 Architectural and Civil Drafters<br />
306. 0.53 47-5012 Rotary Drill Operators, Oil and Gas<br />
307. 0.53 47-4041 Hazardous Materials Removal Workers<br />
308. 0.54 39-4011 Embalmers<br />
309. 0.54 47-5041 Continuous Mining Machine Operators<br />
310. 0.54 39-1012 Slot Supervisors<br />
311. 0.54 31-9011 Massage Therapists<br />
312. 0.54 41-3011 Advertising Sales Agents<br />
313. 0.55 49-3022 Automotive Glass Installers and Repairers<br />
314. 0.55 53-2012 Commercial Pilots<br />
315. 0.55 43-4051 Customer Service Representatives<br />
316. 0.55 27-4011 Audio and Video Equipment Technicians<br />
317. 0.56 25-9041 Teacher Assistants<br />
318. 0.57 45-1011 First-Line Supervisors of Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Workers<br />
319. 0.57 19-4031 Chemical Technicians<br />
320. 0.57 47-3015 Helpers–Pipelayers, Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters<br />
321. 0.57 1 13-1051 Cost Estimators<br />
63
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