[PDF] Download Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You

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[PDF] Download Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

● Author : Annie Duke

● Pages : 288 pages

● Publisher : Portfolio Penguin

● Language :

● ISBN-10 : 0735216355

● ISBN-13 : 9780735216358

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In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26

seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star

running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the

call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?Even the best decision

doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always

information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think

in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of

success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to

dumb luck rather than great decision making?Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business

consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to

embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values

and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great

decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.By shifting your

thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less

vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more

confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run. :)

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