PLUG MAGAZINE- MAY 2020

WHEN WILL WE BE GOING TO
CONCERTS AND SPORTING
EVENTS AGAIN?
HERE’S WHAT EXPERTS ARE SAYING
Only a vaccine, ubiquitous testing or vastly improved
treatment will accelerate the pace of
large gatherings without strict social distancing,
said Dr. Dhruv Khullar, a physician at New
York-Presbyterian Hospital and an assistant
professor at the Weill Cornell Department of
Healthcare Policy and Research. Even going
back to school or large weddings could be
problematic, he said. Most health experts predict
a vaccine won’t be ready until 2021 at the
earliest.
“I think people at home see cases are leveling
off, it’s easy to say let’s open beaches, let’s open
schools, let’s open stadiums,” said Khullar.
Hundreds of billions of dollars are spent each
year on large events like conferences, sports
and concerts. Like so many other industries,
Covid-19 quarantines have devastated eventbased
businesses. The major sports leagues
— the National Basketball Association, Major
League Baseball and National Hockey League
— have put games on hold indefinitely.
“Our revenue in essence has dropped to zero,”
NBA Commissioner Adam Silver said on a conference
call last month. “That’s having a huge
financial impact on the team business and the
arena business.”
But while sports leagues are coming up with
plans to play games without fans and some
government officials consider opening up venues
for concerts, an unfortunate realism is settling
in among public health experts and busi-
The coronavirus has
devastated economies
around the
world and disrupted
life in ways that were
unimaginable just
a few months ago.
The world will never
be the same. But at
some point, industries
will start coming back online and people
will start going out again.
We asked public health and industry experts for
their thoughts on what the world will look like
when the Covid-19 pandemic finally recedes.
In the latest installment of our series ”The Next
Normal,″ we look at when we might be able to
attend big events with crowds, like sporting
events and concerts
ness leaders: Large gatherings without strict social distancing shouldn’t come back until at least
2021.
Big events: ‘Not very high’ on list of concerns
Large group events will likely be one of the last things to return to normal, said Peter Bach, director
of the Center for Health Policy and Outcomes. Concerts, sports, conferences and festivals may be
entertaining, but they’re not essential to life. They’re also among the riskiest events because so
many cheering people are tightly packed into arenas, making social distancing and wearing masks
implausible, he said.
“ It’s certainly not very high on my list of concerns as far as a return to normalcy, as much
as I like a good Elton John concert,” said Bach. “Having gone to those events, I don’t know
you’d keep people from exposing the virus to one another, and I don’t know how you could
contact-trace there without a lot of intrusion. ”
“The reality is in the hospital we see the real devastating
effects of moving too quickly and not
adhering to social distancing practices. The one
thing I would emphasize is we’re not out of the
woods. We’re not in a place where we can open
up back yet. I hope we get there soon but if we
rush this thing, we’ll be back where we were a
month ago, and that would be a real shame.”
Employment data suggests the entertainment, arts and recreation industry is anticipating a prolonged slowdown. New job openings are down 53%
from prequarantine levels, the biggest drop of any of the 21 industries tracked by CareerBuilder, the employment website. Job openings are typically
a leading indicator illustrating executives don’t expect their industry will have an immediate economic recovery, said Michelle Armer, chief people
officer at CareerBuilder.
White House advisor and public health expert Venues across the country are taking different South Korea’s Korean Baseball Organization
Dr. Anthony Fauci told The New York Times last approaches to coronavirus. The Metropolitan began its season this week without a crowd:
week that bringing fans to an arena may simply Opera and Carnegie Hall have canceled their Umpires and other baseball-related employees
be too complicated to attempt this year
2019–2020 seasons but are selling tickets for must wear masks and gloves at all times, everyone
2020-2021. Professional sports leagues are actively
gets their temperature checked when en-
considering plans to play games without tering and leaving the stadium, and the league
fans. Both Major League Baseball and the National
has outlawed spitting and high-fives, according
Basketball Association are investigating to The Washington Post.
ways to return to action, though neither league’s
executives have suggested the conditions exist
to begin play.
““
“I don’t want to make this conversation
sound like it’s going to be an easy
thing,” Fauci said. “We may not be able
to pull this off. We’re going to have to
see: Is it doable? Do we have the capability
of doing it safely? Because safety,
for the players and for the fans, trumps
everything. If you can’t guarantee safety,
then unfortunately you’re going to have
to bite the bullet and say, “We may have
to go without this sport for this season.”
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