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8 — Vanguard, FRIDAY, JUNE 26, 2020<br />
By Emma Ujah, Abuja<br />
Bureau Chief<br />
A<br />
combination of collapse in<br />
oil prices and the COVID-19<br />
pandemic is expected to plunge the<br />
country’s economy into a severe<br />
recession, the worst since the 1980s,<br />
according to the latest World Bank<br />
Nigeria Development Update.<br />
The World Bank in statement, titled<br />
“Nigeria In Times of COVID-19: Laying<br />
Foundations for a Strong Recovery,’’<br />
estimated that Nigeria’s economy would<br />
likely contract by 3.2% in 2020.<br />
The International Monetary Fund<br />
had on Wednesday projected a -5.4<br />
percent growth for Nigeria in 2020 due<br />
to the pandemic.<br />
The projection in the World Bank report<br />
assumed that the spread of COVID-19<br />
in Nigeria would be contained by the<br />
third quarter of 2020.<br />
The report said: “If the spread of the<br />
virus becomes more severe, the economy<br />
could contract further. Before COVID-<br />
19, the Nigerian economy was expected<br />
to grow by 2.1% in 2020, which means<br />
that the pandemic has led to a reduction<br />
in growth by more than five percentage<br />
points.<br />
“The macro-economic impact of the<br />
COVID-19 pandemic will likely be<br />
significant, even if Nigeria manages to<br />
contain the spread of the virus. Oil<br />
represents more than 80% of Nigeria’s<br />
exports, 30% of its banking-sector credit,<br />
and 50% of the overall government<br />
revenue.<br />
“With the drop in oil prices,<br />
government revenues are expected to<br />
fall from an already low 8% of GDP in<br />
2019 to a projected 5% in 2020. This<br />
comes at a time when fiscal resources<br />
are urgently needed to contain the<br />
COVID-19 outbreak and stimulate the<br />
economy.”<br />
7m people to fall into<br />
poverty<br />
The report showed that the human<br />
cost of COVID-19 could be high and that<br />
beyond the loss of lives, the COVID-19<br />
shock alone was projected to push about<br />
five million more Nigerians into poverty<br />
in 2020.<br />
The bank said: “While before the<br />
pandemic, the number of poor<br />
Nigerians was expected to increase<br />
by about two million, largely due to<br />
population growth, the number<br />
would now increase by seven<br />
million, with a poverty rate projected<br />
to rise from 40.1% in 2019 to 42.5%<br />
in 2020.<br />
“The pandemic is likely to<br />
disproportionately affect the poorest and<br />
Ghana pledges to restore Nigeria’s<br />
diplomatic property to original state<br />
ABUJA—THE<br />
Ghanaian<br />
government yesterday reiterated<br />
its commitment to restore to its original<br />
state the residential building of the<br />
Nigerian High Commission in Ghana<br />
that was demolished a few days ago,<br />
following an attack.<br />
The News Agency of Nigeria (NAN)<br />
reports that armed men had attacked the<br />
mission on Friday night and demolished<br />
the official residence of the High<br />
Commission of Nigeria, which was under<br />
construction.<br />
Mrs Shirley Ayokor Botchewey,<br />
Ghana’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and<br />
Regional Integration, disclosed this while<br />
briefing journalists in Ghana on the<br />
outcome of the investigation into the<br />
attack.<br />
She said: “The Land Commission will<br />
formerly inform the Osu Traditional<br />
Council that in August, 2000, offer was<br />
made to High Commission of Nigeria,<br />
irrespective of the title of land in question.<br />
“The offer was accepted by the High<br />
Commission and payment was made<br />
accordingly that constituted a contract.<br />
“The Land Commission will proceed to<br />
issue a Land Certificate to the High<br />
Commission of Nigeria, to regularise it’s<br />
:Vanguard News :@vanguardnews :@vanguardnews NEWS HOTLINES: 08052867023, 08052867058<br />
Nigeria faces worst recession in four decades<br />
— World Bank<br />
most vulnerable, in particular women.<br />
School closures have reduced the food<br />
intake of almost seven million children<br />
who are enrolled in the national school<br />
feeding program.<br />
“Economic activities have been<br />
disrupted and women’s livelihoods have<br />
been particularly impacted. Over 40% of<br />
Nigerians employed in non-farm<br />
enterprises reported a loss of income in<br />
April-May 2020.<br />
‘’In addition, the fall in remittances is<br />
likely to affect household consumption<br />
because half of Nigerians live in<br />
remittance-receiving households, of<br />
which about a third are poor.”<br />
The report discussed policy options in<br />
five critical areas that could help Nigeria<br />
recover from the COVID-19 <strong>crisis</strong>.<br />
‘’They were: containing the outbreak<br />
and preparing for a more severe outbreak;<br />
enhancing macroeconomic<br />
management to boost investor<br />
confidence; safeguarding and mobilizing<br />
revenues; reprioritizing public spending<br />
to protect critical development<br />
expenditures and stimulate economic<br />
activity; and protecting poor and<br />
vulnerable communities.’’<br />
Commenting on the report, the World<br />
Bank Country Director for Nigeria,<br />
Shubham Chaudhuri, said: “While the<br />
long-term economic impact of the global<br />
pandemic is uncertain, the effectiveness<br />
of the government’s response is<br />
important to determine the speed,<br />
quality, and sustainability of Nigeria’s<br />
economic recovery.<br />
“Besides immediate efforts to contain<br />
the spread of COVID-19 and stimulate<br />
the economy, it will be even more urgent<br />
to address bottlenecks that hinder the<br />
productivity of the economy and job<br />
creation.”<br />
Similarly, the World Bank Lead<br />
Economist for Nigeria and co-author of<br />
the report, Marco Hernandez, said: “The<br />
unprecedented <strong>crisis</strong> requires an equally<br />
unprecedented policy response from the<br />
entire Nigerian public sector, in<br />
collaboration with the private sector, to<br />
save lives, protect livelihoods, and lay<br />
the foundations for a strong economic<br />
recovery.”<br />
The bank noted however, that the<br />
government of Nigeria had already taken<br />
important health, fiscal and monetary<br />
measures to contain the outbreak,<br />
moderate the recessionary pressures and<br />
start mitigating the effects of the<br />
economic shock.<br />
ownership of the property in question.<br />
“Ghana will take immediate steps to<br />
engage the Osu stool and all<br />
stakeholders on the impasse.<br />
“Ghana will ensure that the<br />
demolished building is restored to<br />
its original state as soon as possible.<br />
“The High Commission of Nigeria<br />
will take appropriate steps to obtain<br />
building permit for the<br />
construction.”<br />
She added that a committee<br />
consisting of officials of the Ministry of<br />
Foreign Affairs, Ghana Police Service,<br />
National Security, and the Lands<br />
Commission had been constituted to<br />
investigate the unlawful demolition of<br />
the building.<br />
According to her, based on preliminary<br />
investigation, Nigeria paid for the land<br />
20 years ago, even though the High<br />
Commission could not produce the lease,<br />
land title certificate and building permit<br />
of the land.<br />
She, however, gave an assurance that<br />
the government of Ghana would<br />
actively engage the Nigeria<br />
government at the highest level, to<br />
address the impasse and help calm<br />
tensions in both countries.<br />
•Says 7 million Nigerians to fall into poverty<br />
•Calls for bold policies to save lives, livelihoods<br />
PRESENTATION: Representative of the Chief of the Naval Staff/Chief of Policy and Plans<br />
Naval headquarters, Rear Admiral Ifeola Mohammed (2nd left), receiving COVID-19<br />
ventilators from Country Representative Messrs OCEA,Yemi Aluko (2nd right), General<br />
Manager Messrs OCEA Tope Elijah (right), and other senior naval officers, during the<br />
presentation of 20 COVID-19 ventilators at the Naval headquarters, in Abuja yesterday.<br />
COVID-19: FG mulls another lockdown<br />
•Condemns protocol violations by politicians<br />
•Says Nigerians romancing with COVID-19<br />
•Worried over resurgence in Europe, Brazil; 80% of Nigerian parents <strong>against</strong><br />
schools re-opening<br />
By Chioma Obinna, Omeiza<br />
Ajayi & Gabriel Olawale<br />
ABUJA—THE<br />
Federal<br />
Government yesterday<br />
condemned the serial violations of<br />
COVID-19 safety protocols by politicians<br />
preparing for the governorship elections<br />
in Edo and Ondo states, saying this was<br />
the time to declare a lockdown.<br />
Chairman of the Presidential Task<br />
Force, PTF, on COVID-19 and Secretary<br />
to the Government of the Federation<br />
SGF, Mr Boss Mustapha, stated this<br />
Thursday in Abuja during the daily<br />
briefing of the Task Force.<br />
He said if he had his way, he would<br />
declare another round of lockdown on<br />
the country, urging politicians to devise<br />
ingenuous ways of reaching the<br />
electorate without breaching physical<br />
distancing measures and the rule on<br />
wearing facemask.<br />
Meanwhile, as the increasing number<br />
of COVID-19 cases continues to take its<br />
toll on the nation’s health care system,<br />
particularly as it relates to the number of<br />
bed spaces, the government said it has<br />
established Community Support<br />
Centres in high burden local government<br />
areas.<br />
It also frowned on the use of face<br />
shields as a replacement for face masks,<br />
advising that shields should only be used<br />
in addition to wearing masks and not as<br />
a replacement.<br />
While also expressing worry over what<br />
appears a renewed wave of infections in<br />
Europe, China and particularly Brazil,<br />
which the government said shared a<br />
lot of demographic similarities with<br />
Nigeria, the government equally<br />
added that the result of a perception<br />
survey it recently carried out across<br />
the country showed that 80 percent<br />
of Nigerian parents were unwilling to<br />
allow their wards resume school until<br />
there was full guarantee that they would<br />
not be exposed to danger.<br />
It said by next week, it would announce<br />
when the airspace would be reopened<br />
for domestic flights.<br />
On its part, the World Health<br />
Organization WHO announced that<br />
there are currently 220 vaccine<br />
candidates undergoing development at<br />
different stages.<br />
Political violations<br />
An obviously displeased Mustapha<br />
said even as a politician, he has decided<br />
not to attend any political rally, saying<br />
Nigerians had become too casual with<br />
the pandemic and that the time has come<br />
to take drastic measures <strong>against</strong> it.<br />
Mustapha said in every confirmed<br />
case, Nigeria would have missed out on<br />
at least five to seven other positive cases.<br />
He said: “Gatherings are still not okay.<br />
Any form of gatherings are still not okay.<br />
Yes, I know it is an electioneering period<br />
for some states in Nigeria and people will<br />
begin to congregate but we must begin<br />
to devise other means.<br />
‘’Otherwise, the people who are<br />
aspiring to lead these offices will end up<br />
spending the entire budget of their states<br />
in dealing with the problem they would<br />
have created, if they become governors.<br />
So, it is a very serious thing. I am a<br />
politician and I have been in this<br />
business for almost 40 years but I can<br />
assure you that there is nothing that<br />
will take me to any political rally. Nothing.<br />
I will use other mechanisms of reaching<br />
the electorate.<br />
‘’But to congregate in a political rally?<br />
For what? So, we have to be very careful.<br />
The choice is ours. No one can make<br />
that choice for you. The truth about it is<br />
that efforts, scepticism and disregard will<br />
not take us anywhere.<br />
“If it were within my powers, this is the<br />
time to lockdown. Lockdown might not<br />
be a popular thing, but this is the time to<br />
lockdown because we are already<br />
romancing with COVID-19 and it is not<br />
good. So, the message is that we should<br />
continue to take personal responsibility.’’<br />
Resurgence in cases<br />
The SGF expressed concerns at the<br />
epidemiological situation of some<br />
countries where there is a second wave<br />
of transmission.<br />
He said: “You would have noticed that<br />
the number of confirmed cases and<br />
fatalities released in the last few days<br />
have been on the high side. While we<br />
attribute this to increased testing, it<br />
also goes to confirm the extent of<br />
the spread within our communities,<br />
especially the 21 high burden LGAs<br />
identified as accounting for over 60%<br />
of infections nationwide.<br />
“Closely related to the high number of<br />
confirmed cases and fatalities at home<br />
are lessons drawn from other<br />
jurisdictions. From Europe to China to<br />
the United States of America, the rising<br />
numbers and reported resurgence in<br />
some cases should also be of concern to<br />
us.<br />
‘’Of particular concern, however, is the<br />
case of Brazil which has exceeded the<br />
one million mark of confirmed cases. We<br />
had informed you that Brazil shares<br />
several cultural, demographic and<br />
climatic affinities with us. If any lesson is<br />
to be learned, Brazil should be a subject<br />
of interest that will make us change our<br />
behaviour.’’<br />
According to Mustapha, the PTF has<br />
noted and acknowledged progress being<br />
made globally and domestically to search<br />
for a cure for COVID-19, especially the<br />
recent announcement that 4, 000 people<br />
have volunteered for a vaccine trial in<br />
the United Kingdom , adding that this<br />
gives some room for greater hope.<br />
“We similarly look forward to the<br />
outcomes of validation processes for<br />
submissions made by some Nigerian<br />
scientists.<br />
“I wish to inform you that by the end<br />
of this week, the PTF would be submitting<br />
a report containing our assessment and<br />
recommendations to Mr. President. We,<br />
therefore, urge Nigerians to await next<br />
steps,” said the SGF.<br />
Support Centres<br />
In his remarks at the briefing, Minister<br />
of Health, Dr Osagie Ehanire, said<br />
community transmission has now<br />
overwhelmed the facilities for case<br />
management.<br />
Represented by the Minister of State,<br />
Health, Sen. Olorunnimbe Mamora, the<br />
minister said: “The community<br />
transmission has resulted in the high<br />
number of confirmed cases with the<br />
challenge that in some states, the<br />
facilities for case management may<br />
become overwhelmed.<br />
‘’Bearing in mind the importance of<br />
managing cases in facilities, the Federal<br />
Ministry of Health through the National<br />
Primary Health-care Development<br />
Agency, NPHCDA, has developed a<br />
guideline for the establishment of<br />
Community Support Centres.’’