2020-05 -- Real Estate of Northern Virginia - The Route 7 Corridor Report - May 2020 - Real Estate Market Trends - Michele Hudnall
This is a monthly report of the Northern Virginia Real Estate market, specifically, The Route 7 Corridor of Fairfax and Loudoun Counties. Weekly I post a video of current market conditions on Tuesday's and will post the monthly report by the 10th of each month as the numbers finalize in the MLS (Bright). The numbers come from the MLS (Bright), opinions are my own. This represents the market up to 5 Bedrooms keeping the numbers sub $1.5M and out of the luxury, custom market.
This is a monthly report of the Northern Virginia Real Estate market, specifically, The Route 7 Corridor of Fairfax and Loudoun Counties. Weekly I post a video of current market conditions on Tuesday's and will post the monthly report by the 10th of each month as the numbers finalize in the MLS (Bright).
The numbers come from the MLS (Bright), opinions are my own. This represents the market up to 5 Bedrooms keeping the numbers sub $1.5M and out of the luxury, custom market.
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REAL ESTATE <strong>of</strong> NORTHERN VIRGINIA<br />
THE ROUTE 7 CORRIDOR REPORT MAY <strong>2020</strong><br />
HIGHLIGHTS<br />
Year Over Year<br />
FAIRFAX AND LOUDOUN COUNTIES<br />
+ 5.24%<br />
VALUE<br />
Median Sale Price<br />
- 31.9%<br />
SALES<br />
Closed Sales<br />
- 10.35%<br />
<strong>Market</strong>ing Time<br />
Days on <strong>Market</strong><br />
- 61.26%<br />
INVENTORY<br />
Total Inventory<br />
- 43.48%<br />
PACE<br />
Months <strong>of</strong> Inventory<br />
+ 19.10%<br />
- 00.13%<br />
NEGOTIABILITY<br />
Subsidy – Sale to Orig List Ratio<br />
• Sales, inventory, and pace <strong>of</strong> inventory are lagging indicators to the leading indicator <strong>of</strong> new listings that<br />
were rising for an early spring market and then declined Mar – Early <strong>May</strong>.<br />
• New listings are rising, slowly, and sales will continue to illustrate a YoY decline until ~ME July.<br />
• Days on market has declined illustrating the strong and well-prepared demand from buyers.<br />
• Interest rates are declining and mortgage applications are rising, keeping home prices on the rise YoY.<br />
• Inventory is eroding and new listings are under contract as soon as they come to market with multiple<br />
<strong>of</strong>fers.<br />
• Negotiability (subsidy requests) appear on
REAL ESTATE <strong>of</strong> NORTHERN VIRGINIA<br />
THE ROUTE 7 CORRIDOR REPORT MAY <strong>2020</strong><br />
HIGHLIGHTS<br />
Year Over Year<br />
FAIRFAX COUNTY<br />
+ 5.17%<br />
VALUE<br />
Median Sale Price<br />
- 32.0%<br />
SALES<br />
Closed Sales<br />
- 9.33%<br />
<strong>Market</strong>ing Time<br />
Days on <strong>Market</strong><br />
- 63.11%<br />
INVENTORY<br />
Total Inventory<br />
- 50.0%<br />
PACE<br />
Months <strong>of</strong> Inventory<br />
+ 14.00%<br />
- 00.22%<br />
NEGOTIABILITY<br />
Subsidy – Sale to Orig List Ratio<br />
• Sales, inventory, and pace <strong>of</strong> inventory are lagging indicators to the leading indicator <strong>of</strong> new listings that<br />
were rising for an early spring market and then declined Mar – Early <strong>May</strong>.<br />
• New listings are rising, slowly, and sales will continue to illustrate a YoY decline until ~ME July.<br />
• Days on market has declined illustrating the strong and well-prepared demand from buyers.<br />
• Interest rates are declining and mortgage applications are rising, keeping home prices on the rise YoY.<br />
• Inventory is eroding and new listings are under contract as soon as they come to market with multiple<br />
<strong>of</strong>fers.<br />
• Negotiability (subsidy requests) appear on
FAIRFAX | CONDOMINIUMS<br />
HIGHLIGHTS<br />
Year Over Year<br />
<strong>Real</strong> <strong>Estate</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Northern</strong> <strong>Virginia</strong><br />
<strong>The</strong> <strong>Route</strong> 7 <strong>Corridor</strong> <strong>Report</strong> | <strong>May</strong> <strong>2020</strong><br />
+ 11.89%<br />
VALUE<br />
Average Sale Price<br />
- 40.07%<br />
SALES<br />
Closed Sales<br />
- 16.43%<br />
<strong>Market</strong>ing Time<br />
Days on <strong>Market</strong><br />
+ 30.18%<br />
+ 0.35%<br />
NEGOTIABILITY<br />
Subsidy &<br />
Sale to Orig List Ratio<br />
• Condominium prices carry the highest YoY gain currently but also carry the greatest subsidy credits. Condo fees tend to be a distraction to the<br />
sale and/or working closing costs into a sale are the two factors I believe are driving both <strong>of</strong> these metrics.<br />
• <strong>The</strong> price point <strong>of</strong> $300K to $325K and the 2 Bed dominance indicates first time buyers and right sizers with Alexandria and Reston leading<br />
due to price point and proximity to the Metro I suspect.
FAIRFAX | TOWNHOMES<br />
HIGHLIGHTS<br />
Year Over Year<br />
<strong>Real</strong> <strong>Estate</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Northern</strong> <strong>Virginia</strong><br />
<strong>The</strong> <strong>Route</strong> 7 <strong>Corridor</strong> <strong>Report</strong> | <strong>May</strong> <strong>2020</strong><br />
+ 2.52%<br />
VALUE<br />
Average Sale Price<br />
- 30.45%<br />
SALES<br />
Closed Sales<br />
- 3.64%<br />
<strong>Market</strong>ing Time<br />
Days on <strong>Market</strong><br />
+ 8.6%<br />
- 1.06%<br />
NEGOTIABILITY<br />
Subsidy &<br />
Sale to Orig List Ratio<br />
• Townhomes in the $475K to $500K with 3 Beds dominate the Fairfax townhome market with Alexandria and Reston leading and Fairfax<br />
following at the $550K price point.<br />
• <strong>The</strong> price point and proximity to the Metro and/or commuter routes play a strong role in these favorite locations for first time buyers.
FAIRFAX | DETACHED HOMES<br />
HIGHLIGHTS<br />
Year Over Year<br />
<strong>Real</strong> <strong>Estate</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Northern</strong> <strong>Virginia</strong><br />
<strong>The</strong> <strong>Route</strong> 7 <strong>Corridor</strong> <strong>Report</strong> | <strong>May</strong> <strong>2020</strong><br />
+ .39%<br />
VALUE<br />
Average Sale Price<br />
- 30.30%<br />
SALES<br />
Closed Sales<br />
- 5.92%<br />
<strong>Market</strong>ing Time<br />
Days on <strong>Market</strong><br />
+ 10.5%<br />
+ 0.<strong>05</strong>%<br />
NEGOTIABILITY<br />
Subsidy &<br />
Sale to Orig List Ratio<br />
• While appreciation <strong>of</strong> home value remained relatively flat YoY, so did sales. Buyers seeking to move up to a larger home (4 to 5 Beds) took<br />
advantage <strong>of</strong> the market disruption to make their purchase with less competition.<br />
• <strong>The</strong> sweet spot here is $675K to $725K with Alexandria and Fairfax continuing to lead with Herndon replacing Reston due to availability <strong>of</strong><br />
larger detached homes. Springfield provides affordability options with McLean and Vienna taking the higher price point markets.<br />
• Sellers paused early in the year as prices s<strong>of</strong>tened a little but quickly came back to market taking advantage <strong>of</strong> the disruption and low<br />
inventory to drive prices back up with strong buyer demand.
REAL ESTATE <strong>of</strong> NORTHERN VIRGINIA<br />
THE ROUTE 7 CORRIDOR REPORT MAY <strong>2020</strong><br />
HIGHLIGHTS<br />
Year Over Year<br />
LOUDOUN COUNTY<br />
+ 5.31%<br />
VALUE<br />
Median Sale Price<br />
- 31.67%<br />
SALES<br />
Closed Sales<br />
- 9.95%<br />
<strong>Market</strong>ing Time<br />
Days on <strong>Market</strong><br />
- 57.39%<br />
INVENTORY<br />
Total Inventory<br />
- 38.46%<br />
PACE<br />
Months <strong>of</strong> Inventory<br />
+ 33.31%<br />
- 00.02%<br />
NEGOTIABILITY<br />
Subsidy – Sale to Orig List Ratio<br />
• Sales, inventory, and pace <strong>of</strong> inventory are lagging indicators to the leading indicator <strong>of</strong> new listings that<br />
were rising for an early spring market and then declined Mar – Early <strong>May</strong>.<br />
• New listings are rising, slowly, and sales will continue to illustrate a YoY decline until ~ME July.<br />
• Days on market has declined illustrating the strong and well-prepared demand from buyers.<br />
• Interest rates are declining and mortgage applications are rising, keeping home prices on the rise YoY.<br />
• Inventory is eroding and new listings are under contract as soon as they come to market with multiple<br />
<strong>of</strong>fers, however, Loudoun is faring a bit better here than Fairfax County.<br />
• Negotiability (subsidy requests) appear on
LOUDOUN | CONDOMINIUMS<br />
HIGHLIGHTS<br />
Year Over Year<br />
<strong>Real</strong> <strong>Estate</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Northern</strong> <strong>Virginia</strong><br />
<strong>The</strong> <strong>Route</strong> 7 <strong>Corridor</strong> <strong>Report</strong> | <strong>May</strong> <strong>2020</strong><br />
+ 13.06%<br />
VALUE<br />
Average Sale Price<br />
- 19.67%<br />
SALES<br />
Closed Sales<br />
- 3.84%<br />
<strong>Market</strong>ing Time<br />
Days on <strong>Market</strong><br />
+ 133.52%<br />
+ 0.07%<br />
NEGOTIABILITY<br />
Subsidy &<br />
Sale to Orig List Ratio<br />
• Condominium prices carry the highest YoY gain currently but also carry the greatest subsidy credits. Condo fees tend to be a distraction to the<br />
sale and/or working closing costs into a sale are the two factors I believe are driving both <strong>of</strong> these metrics.<br />
• <strong>The</strong> price point <strong>of</strong> $300K to $375K and the 2 Bed dominance indicates first time buyers and right sizers with Leesburg affordability, Sterling<br />
proximity and Ashburn leading due to price points and proximity lifestyle I suspect.<br />
• Loudoun condominiums are the only sector that continued to enjoy growth during the disruption. Loudoun condominiums largely mimic<br />
townhome style homes with the amenities <strong>of</strong> parks, trails, pools and playgrounds.<br />
• Condominium prices carry the highest YoY gain currently but also carry the greatest subsidy credits. Condo fees tend to be a distraction to the<br />
sale and/or working closing costs into a sale are the two factors I believe are driving both <strong>of</strong> these metrics.<br />
• <strong>The</strong> affordability and the 2 Bed dominance indicates first time buyers and right sizers with the balance <strong>of</strong> small families lifestyle and yet still<br />
commuter friendly.<br />
•
LOUDOUN | TOWNHOMES<br />
HIGHLIGHTS<br />
Year Over Year<br />
+ 7.5%<br />
VALUE<br />
Average Sale Price<br />
Month Ending<br />
<strong>May</strong> <strong>2020</strong><br />
Number <strong>of</strong><br />
Sales<br />
Avg Days<br />
on Mkt<br />
Avg Price /<br />
SQFT<br />
<strong>Real</strong> <strong>Estate</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Northern</strong> <strong>Virginia</strong><br />
<strong>The</strong> <strong>Route</strong> 7 <strong>Corridor</strong> <strong>Report</strong> | <strong>May</strong> <strong>2020</strong><br />
Avg Close<br />
Price<br />
Avg Orig<br />
List Price<br />
Avg Sale to<br />
Orig List Price<br />
Ratio<br />
Townhouse 235 12 $ 227.44 $ 468,823 $ 470,664 99.61%<br />
2 Beds or Less 21 11 $ 273.59 $ 358,947 $ 361,099 99.40%<br />
3 Beds 161 12 $ 222.63 $ 460,410 $ 462,220 99.61%<br />
4 to 5 Beds 53 10 $ 223.37 $ 537,913 $ 539,729 99.66%<br />
- 33.80%<br />
SALES<br />
Closed Sales<br />
- 17.73%<br />
<strong>Market</strong>ing Time<br />
Days on <strong>Market</strong><br />
+ 9.65%<br />
- 0.22%<br />
NEGOTIABILITY<br />
Subsidy &<br />
Sale to Orig List Ratio<br />
• Townhomes in the $420K to $450K with 3 Beds lead in Leesburg and Sterling. <strong>The</strong> Potomac Falls, Countryside and Great Falls Chase<br />
communities <strong>of</strong> Sterling lead in affordability and commuter friendly.<br />
• Ashburn and Brambleton lead in the 4 to 5 Bed $500K to $550K price point for those seeking more space but not ready for the leap to the<br />
detached home price points in the area. .<br />
• This sector fared well during the disruption with buyers taking advantage <strong>of</strong> less competition in what started this year as a highly sought after<br />
and competitive sector.<br />
• Sellers paused early this year as prices s<strong>of</strong>tened but quickly took advantage <strong>of</strong> the low inventory situation and came back to market with the<br />
low inventory driving prices back up during the disruption.
LOUDOUN | DETACHED HOMES<br />
HIGHLIGHTS<br />
Year Over Year<br />
<strong>Real</strong> <strong>Estate</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Northern</strong> <strong>Virginia</strong><br />
<strong>The</strong> <strong>Route</strong> 7 <strong>Corridor</strong> <strong>Report</strong> | <strong>May</strong> <strong>2020</strong><br />
+ 3.33%<br />
VALUE<br />
Average Sale Price<br />
- 31.59%<br />
SALES<br />
Closed Sales<br />
- 9.65%<br />
<strong>Market</strong>ing Time<br />
Days on <strong>Market</strong><br />
+ 8.07%<br />
+ 0.09%<br />
NEGOTIABILITY<br />
Subsidy &<br />
Sale to Orig List Ratio<br />
• <strong>The</strong> sweet spot for 4 to 5 Beds is $775K to $810K in Leesburg and Ashburn followed by Sterling as the affordability and proximity choice in the<br />
sub $600K sector. Aldie <strong>of</strong>fers newer construction with a bit more <strong>of</strong> a commute. Commute, lifestyle and affordability are always the<br />
balancing act in this market.<br />
• Prices took a dip at year end creating a dip in sales at the start <strong>of</strong> the year. However, the low inventory brought sellers back to the market<br />
and prices improved with the strong buyer demand. <strong>The</strong> dip in sales currently is the lagging affect <strong>of</strong> the earlier dip in sales (homes on the<br />
market).
<strong>Michele</strong> <strong>Hudnall</strong><br />
<strong>Market</strong> Mentor - <strong>Real</strong>tor - <strong>Market</strong>ing Strategist<br />
Deep Roots for Smart Moves!<br />
Your <strong>Market</strong> Strategy Mentor with Deep Roots in <strong>Northern</strong> <strong>Virginia</strong> for Smart Moves! Technology and Go-to-<strong>Market</strong><br />
Strategy is my passion, let's put it to use for your real estate moves!<br />
<strong>Northern</strong> <strong>Virginia</strong> area has always been home for me and has much to <strong>of</strong>fer as your lifestyle requirements move forward.<br />
My consultative background in market analysis, go-to-market strategy and leading change for the technology companies<br />
is what I bring to my clients for their real estate transactions.<br />
My mission is to help you with the service, technology and marketing strategy you should expect and demand from a<br />
<strong>Real</strong>tor. This is why I am partnered with the best in the industry - Keller Williams <strong>Real</strong>ty. <strong>The</strong> real estate market is<br />
evolving technically which is very exciting. I am not learning, I am applying technology for clients.<br />
As I have watched <strong>Northern</strong> <strong>Virginia</strong> grow and evolve, I am also a Purple Bleeding, James Madison University alumni,<br />
home town sports fan, foodie and a fitness fanatic who is here to serve you in making your next move.<br />
How can I help you today?<br />
<strong>Michele</strong> <strong>Hudnall</strong><br />
mhudnall@realestate<strong>of</strong>nva.com | 703.867.3436 | realestate<strong>of</strong>nva.com<br />
<strong>Real</strong> <strong>Estate</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Northern</strong> <strong>Virginia</strong> App at: <strong>Real</strong><strong>Estate</strong>OfNVAApp.com<br />
Schedule Time with <strong>Michele</strong> at : calendly.com/mhudnall<br />
@<strong>Real</strong><strong>Estate</strong>OfNVA on all platforms | facebook | twitter | instagram | linkedin | YouTube |<br />
KW Reston<br />
License Number: #0226007362<br />
Office: (703) 679-1700<br />
11700 Plaza America Drive; Suite 150<br />
Reston, VA 20190<br />
<strong>Michele</strong> <strong>Hudnall</strong><br />
<strong>Real</strong> <strong>Estate</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Northern</strong> <strong>Virginia</strong><br />
License #0225241222<br />
(703) 867-3436<br />
michele@realestate<strong>of</strong>nva.com<br />
<strong>The</strong> data used in this report comes from the MLS (Bright) with opinions provided being solely my own.
<strong>Michele</strong> <strong>Hudnall</strong><br />
<strong>Market</strong> Mentor - <strong>Real</strong>tor - <strong>Market</strong>ing Strategist<br />
Deep Roots for Smart Moves!<br />
Your <strong>Market</strong> Strategy Mentor with Deep Roots in <strong>Northern</strong> <strong>Virginia</strong> for Smart Moves! Technology and Go-to-<strong>Market</strong><br />
Strategy is my passion, let's put it to use for your real estate moves!<br />
<strong>Northern</strong> <strong>Virginia</strong> area has always been home for me and has much to <strong>of</strong>fer as your lifestyle requirements move forward.<br />
My consultative background in market analysis, go-to-market strategy and leading change for the technology companies<br />
is what I bring to my clients for their real estate transactions.<br />
My mission is to help you with the service, technology and marketing strategy you should expect and demand from a<br />
<strong>Real</strong>tor. This is why I am partnered with the best in the industry - Keller Williams <strong>Real</strong>ty. <strong>The</strong> real estate market is<br />
evolving technically which is very exciting. I am not learning, I am applying technology for clients.<br />
As I have watched <strong>Northern</strong> <strong>Virginia</strong> grow and evolve, I am also a Purple Bleeding, James Madison University alumni,<br />
home town sports fan, foodie and a fitness fanatic who is here to serve you in making your next move.<br />
How can I help you today?<br />
<strong>Michele</strong> <strong>Hudnall</strong><br />
mhudnall@realestate<strong>of</strong>nva.com | 703.867.3436 | realestate<strong>of</strong>nva.com<br />
<strong>Real</strong> <strong>Estate</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Northern</strong> <strong>Virginia</strong> App at: <strong>Real</strong><strong>Estate</strong>OfNVAApp.com<br />
Schedule Time with <strong>Michele</strong> at : calendly.com/mhudnall<br />
@<strong>Real</strong><strong>Estate</strong>OfNVA on all platforms | facebook | twitter | instagram | linkedin | YouTube |<br />
KW Reston<br />
License Number: #0226007362<br />
Office: (703) 679-1700<br />
11700 Plaza America Drive; Suite 150<br />
Reston, VA 20190<br />
<strong>Michele</strong> <strong>Hudnall</strong><br />
<strong>Real</strong> <strong>Estate</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Northern</strong> <strong>Virginia</strong><br />
License #0225241222<br />
(703) 67-3436<br />
michele@realestate<strong>of</strong>nva.com<br />
<strong>The</strong> data used in this report comes from the MLS (Bright) with opinions provided being solely my own.
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