Property Times European Logistics H1 2011 - DTZ

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Economic overview Figure 8 GDP growth in 2011 GDP growth in 2011 -4.8% - 0% 0.1% - 2.0% 2.1% - 4.0% 4.1% - 6.4% No data Portugal Ireland Spain United Kingdom Source : DTZ Research, ESRI, Oxford Economics Source: Oxford Economics France Belgium Denmark Netherlands Luxembourg Norway Germany Switzerland Sweden Czech Republic Italy Austria • Figure 8 illustrates the GDP growth anticipated for 2011. The 3 major economies – the UK, France and Germany – will see their GDP figures grow. Germany will lead with 3.5% growth expected, followed by France (2.2%) and the UK (1.4%). Bosnia and Herzegovina Serbia Montenegro Kosovo Russian Federation www.dtz.com 4 Poland Slovenia Croatia Malta Slovakia Hungary Albania Finland Estonia Latvia Lithuania FYR of Macedonia Greece Romania Belarus Bulgaria Ukraine Republic of Moldova Turkey Cyprus • GDP growth is expected to be strongest in the Nordics and CEE, especially in Poland, Russia and Turkey, while the PIIGS struggle well below the European average (1.9%).
Retail, E-retail & logistics Retail & Logistics • Although retail sales growth was still in negative territory at the end of 2010, the declines are much shallower than in 2009. By the end of 2011, all the major markets in Europe are forecast to return to retail sales growth, with the exceptions of Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy (Figure 9). • As a result of the downturn, retailers have become extremely selective on their choice of stores and locations, favouring larger units in new retail formats located in city centres. These changes, mainly prevalent in the food sector, will impact their supply chain and, ultimately, their logistics requirements. • Increased efficiency in the supply chain and cost cutting measures will drive retailers and their third party providers to review their existing networks in two ways: by relocating to main distribution hubs across Europe in order to take advantage of good locations for both production and distribution, and by identifying hot spots at a local level for the distribution of goods to the consumers. E-retail & logistics • E-commerce is one of the fastest-growing sectors in Europe, with an average increase of 5.9% during 2010. Online sales are forecast to increase by 14% in the UK this year. In continental Europe, the pace of the online retail growth will be higher, ranging from 15% in Germany to a record level of 33.5% in Poland (Figure 10). Consequently, the market share of online sales will grow to represent 12% in the UK, and an average of 6% in Continental Europe. • The anticipation of business growth linked to eretailing has already generated new orders from eretailers in UK, France and more recently Germany, where Amazon has signed the two biggest transactions of H1 2011. E-retailer requirements are focused on large logistics schemes on the periphery but also medium and small sized warehouses close to town centres for “last mile” distribution. Figure 9 Retail sales annual forecasts (2011-2020) in Europe Source: Oxford Economics Figure 10 Forecast growth in online sales, 2011 Poland www.dtz.com 5 50 40 30 20 10 0 % increase online sales 2010- 2011 Italy Spain France Switzerland Benelux UK Germany 0 3 6 9 12 15 2011 online share of all retail business (%) Source: Centre for Retail Research
Page 1 and 2: 30 September 2011 Contents Executiv
Page 3: Economic overview • Industrial pr
Page 7 and 8: Investment Market Prime yields stab
Page 9 and 10: Fair Value Index Map 1 Prime indust
Page 11 and 12: Occupier market - European overview
Page 13 and 14: Occupiers market - Country overview
Page 27 and 28: www.dtz.com 27
Page 29 and 30: Contacts Eurologistics Group Robert

Property Times European Logistics H1 2011 - DTZ

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