23.12.2012 Views

CHEMICALS AT THE CROSSROADS: - Grace Matthews, Inc.

CHEMICALS AT THE CROSSROADS: - Grace Matthews, Inc.

CHEMICALS AT THE CROSSROADS: - Grace Matthews, Inc.

SHOW MORE
SHOW LESS

Create successful ePaper yourself

Turn your PDF publications into a flip-book with our unique Google optimized e-Paper software.

<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong>:<br />

U.S. CHEMICAL INDUSTRY 2007 - 2010<br />

SPRING 2010<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. 219 N. Milwaukee Street Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53202 414.278.1120 gracematthews.com


<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING 2010<br />

GRACE M<strong>AT</strong><strong>THE</strong>WS CHEMICAL<br />

PRACTICE<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>’ chemical group provides merger,<br />

acquisition, and corporate finance advisory services<br />

across the spectrum of specialty chemicals.<br />

GRACEM<strong>AT</strong><strong>THE</strong>WS.COM<br />

JOHN BEAGLE MANAGING DIRECTOR<br />

JBEAGLE@GRACEM<strong>AT</strong><strong>THE</strong>WS.COM<br />

BENJAMIN SCHARFF DIRECTOR<br />

BSCHARFF@GRACEM<strong>AT</strong><strong>THE</strong>WS.COM<br />

THOMAS C. OSBORNE SENIOR EXECUTIVE, CO<strong>AT</strong>INGS<br />

TOSBORNE@GRACEM<strong>AT</strong><strong>THE</strong>WS.COM<br />

ANDREW HINZ VICE PRESIDENT<br />

AHINZ@GRACEM<strong>AT</strong><strong>THE</strong>WS.COM<br />

KEVIN YTTRE VICE PRESIDENT<br />

KYTTRE@GRACEM<strong>AT</strong><strong>THE</strong>WS.COM<br />

TRENT MYERS VICE PRESIDENT<br />

TMYERS@GRACEM<strong>AT</strong><strong>THE</strong>WS.COM<br />

ANDREA WOLF ASSOCI<strong>AT</strong>E<br />

AWOLF@GRACEM<strong>AT</strong><strong>THE</strong>WS.COM<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />

3M<br />

A. SCHULMAN INC.<br />

ACETO CORPOR<strong>AT</strong>ION<br />

AIR PRODUCTS & <strong>CHEMICALS</strong>, INC.<br />

AKZO NOBEL, N.V.<br />

ALBEMARLE CORPOR<strong>AT</strong>ION<br />

ALTANA AG<br />

ARCH <strong>CHEMICALS</strong>, INC.<br />

ARKEMA, INC.<br />

ASHLAND, INC.<br />

AVERY DENNISON CORPOR<strong>AT</strong>ION<br />

BASF CORPOR<strong>AT</strong>ION<br />

BECKER INDUSTRIAL CO<strong>AT</strong>INGS<br />

BENJAMIN MOORE & CO.<br />

BORREGAARD<br />

BRUSH ENGINEERED M<strong>AT</strong>ERIALS<br />

CERADYNE, INC.<br />

CHEMTURA CORPOR<strong>AT</strong>ION<br />

CHR. HANSEN A/S<br />

CLARIANT CORPOR<strong>AT</strong>ION<br />

CYTEC INDUSTRIES, INC.<br />

<strong>THE</strong> DOW CHEMICAL COMPANY<br />

DUPONT<br />

EASTMAN CHEMICAL COMPANY<br />

ECOLAB, INC.<br />

FERRO CORPOR<strong>AT</strong>ION<br />

FLINT GROUP<br />

H.B. FULLER CO.<br />

HENKEL<br />

HEXION SPECIALTY <strong>CHEMICALS</strong>, INC.<br />

HONEYWELL INTERN<strong>AT</strong>IONAL INC.<br />

HUNTSMAN CORPOR<strong>AT</strong>ION<br />

ILLINOIS TOOL WORKS, INC.<br />

INEOS GROUP LTD.<br />

INTERN<strong>AT</strong>IONAL FLAVORS & FRAGRANCES, INC.<br />

LANDEC CORPOR<strong>AT</strong>ION<br />

<strong>THE</strong> LUBRIZOL CORPOR<strong>AT</strong>ION<br />

LYONDELLBASELL INDUSTRIES<br />

MILLIKEN CHEMICAL<br />

OLIN CORPOR<strong>AT</strong>ION<br />

OM GROUP, INC.<br />

POLYONE<br />

PPG INDUSTRIES INC.<br />

PRAXAIR, INC.<br />

QUAKER CHEMICAL CORPOR<strong>AT</strong>ION<br />

QUEST SPECIALTY <strong>CHEMICALS</strong><br />

ROCKWOOD HOLDINGS, INC.<br />

RPM INTERN<strong>AT</strong>IONAL<br />

ROYAL DSM N.V.<br />

SENSIENT TECHNOLOGIES CORP.<br />

<strong>THE</strong> SHERWIN-WILLIAMS COMPANY<br />

SIGMA-ALDRICH CORPOR<strong>AT</strong>ION<br />

SPARTECH CORPOR<strong>AT</strong>ION<br />

<strong>THE</strong> VALSPAR CORPOR<strong>AT</strong>ION<br />

W.R. GRACE & CO.<br />

ZEP, INC.


<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING 2010<br />

CONTENTS<br />

KEY TAKEAWAYS 2<br />

<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong><br />

CAP AND TRADE<br />

AN INDUSTRY TRANSFORMED<br />

U.S. CHEMICAL INDUSTRY: A GRAPHICAL OVERVIEW 3<br />

<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> 4<br />

A PICTURE OF A CHANGING INDUSTRY 2007–2010<br />

CAP AND TRADE 10<br />

CHEMICAL INDUSTRY WINNERS AND LOSERS<br />

AN INDUSTRY TRANSFORMED 13<br />

<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> M&A 2007-2010<br />

2007-2010 CHEMICAL INDUSTRY SELECTED TRANSACTIONS 17<br />

GRACE M<strong>AT</strong><strong>THE</strong>WS SPECIALTY CHEMICAL PRACTICE 19<br />

STRONG COMMITMENT TO <strong>CHEMICALS</strong><br />

GRACE M<strong>AT</strong><strong>THE</strong>WS CHEMICAL TEAM<br />

CONTACT INFORM<strong>AT</strong>ION<br />

GRACE M<strong>AT</strong><strong>THE</strong>WS RECENT CHEMICAL TRANSACTIONS 20<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />

1


<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING 2010<br />

KEY TAKEAWAYS<br />

<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong>: A PICTURE OF A CHANGING INDUSTRY 2007-2010<br />

� In general, the chemical industry continued to perform well in the first three quarters of 2008,<br />

even as GDP began to decline. However, in the fourth quarter, orders and shipments collapsed<br />

as problems in the financial sector finally spilled over into the industrial economy.<br />

� Signs of recovery in the chemical industry began in early 2009, well ahead of the general<br />

economy.<br />

� Industrial output of U.S. chemicals is expected to grow 3.4% - 4.2% annually through 2012, but<br />

this level of growth may depend on the successful execution of fiscal and monetary policy by the<br />

federal government.<br />

� EPA activism also could create headwinds for the U.S. chemical industry, limiting its prospects<br />

for growth.<br />

CAP AND TRADE<br />

� The cap and trade bill now under consideration in congress will require companies to reduce<br />

greenhouse gas emissions and will have effects on U.S. manufacturing that are difficult to<br />

predict.<br />

� Chemical companies will be affected disproportionately; large firms may be mostly unaffected or<br />

even benefit. Smaller firms with less flexibility and scale will suffer.<br />

� Cap and trade probably will not reduce greenhouse gas emissions without greater international<br />

cooperation.<br />

� Cap and trade legislation is unlikely to pass in its current form due to growing skepticism about<br />

the underlying science and economics.<br />

AN INDUSTRY TRANSFORMED: <strong>CHEMICALS</strong> M&A 2007-2010<br />

� 2007-2008 was a period during which there were a number of multi-billion dollar, industry<br />

“transformational” deals. Few large deals occurred in 2009 due to the credit crunch and<br />

uncertainty surrounding the business and regulatory climate. Instead, buyers focused more on<br />

lower-risk transactions that enhanced existing strategic strengths.<br />

� The period leading up to the economic crisis of 2008-2009 was characterized by parity between<br />

private equity groups and strategic buyers in terms of M&A activity and valuation.<br />

� Strategic buyers, especially those with strong balance sheets, now have an advantage over<br />

private equity groups that still have limited (but improving) access to the credit markets.<br />

� 2010 is likely to be a good year for chemicals M&A due to rising valuations and pent-up<br />

demand.<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />

2


<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING 2010<br />

U.S. CHEMICAL INDUSTRY:<br />

A GRAPHICAL OVERVIEW<br />

REVENUES AND GDP<br />

U.S. Chemical Industry Revenues and GDP 2007 – 2009<br />

Chemical Revenues Index<br />

(Q1 2007 = 1)<br />

Chemical Industry Value of Shipments<br />

Millions of Dollars<br />

$63,000<br />

$61,000<br />

$59,000<br />

$57,000<br />

$55,000<br />

$53,000<br />

$51,000<br />

$49,000<br />

$47,000<br />

$45,000<br />

Source: U.S. Census Bureau<br />

Chemical Industry Production and Capacity Utilization<br />

Production Index (2002=100)<br />

1.40<br />

1.20<br />

1.00<br />

0.80<br />

0.60<br />

0.40<br />

0.20<br />

120<br />

115<br />

110<br />

105<br />

100<br />

95<br />

90<br />

-<br />

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and <strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>.<br />

Chemical industry revenues are represented by the indexed<br />

performance of 59 selected chemical companies.<br />

REVENUES<br />

GDP Percent Change<br />

(Right Axis)<br />

Capacity<br />

Utilization<br />

(right axis)<br />

Source: Federal Reserve Board<br />

Chemical Industry Revenues<br />

(Left Axis)<br />

Chemical<br />

Production<br />

(left axis)<br />

-2.0%<br />

-4.0%<br />

-6.0%<br />

-8.0%<br />

PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY TRENDS<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />

6.0%<br />

4.0%<br />

2.0%<br />

0.0%<br />

GDP Percent Change<br />

82%<br />

80%<br />

78%<br />

76%<br />

74%<br />

72%<br />

70%<br />

68%<br />

66%<br />

64%<br />

62%<br />

60%<br />

Capacity Utilization %<br />

Revenue<br />

GDP<br />

Chemical Railcar Loadings: March 2007 – November 2009<br />

40,000<br />

35,000<br />

30,000<br />

25,000<br />

20,000<br />

15,000<br />

10,000<br />

5,000<br />

-<br />

Trendline<br />

Source: American Association of Railroads<br />

Global Chemistry Production Outlook<br />

% Change From Prior Period<br />

RAILCAR LOADINGS<br />

PRODUCTION OUTLOOK<br />

15.0%<br />

10.0%<br />

5.0%<br />

0.0%<br />

-5.0%<br />

-10.0%<br />

-15.0%<br />

Source: American Chemistry Council<br />

INVENTORIES<br />

Trendline<br />

Ratio of Chemical Industry Inventories to Shipments:<br />

January 2007 – October 2009<br />

1.35<br />

1.30<br />

1.25<br />

1.20<br />

1.15<br />

1.10<br />

1.05<br />

1.00<br />

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics<br />

North America<br />

Latin America<br />

Western Europe<br />

Russia & Eastern Europe<br />

Africa & Middle East<br />

Asia - Pacific<br />

3


<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING 2010<br />

<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong>:<br />

A PICTURE OF A CHANGING INDUSTRY 2007-2010<br />

Integrated into the supply chain for the production of everything from automobiles to pharmaceuticals,<br />

chemical manufacturing is often viewed as a bellwether for the U.S. economy’s industrial output. As the<br />

chemical industry goes, so goes GDP. As a result, it comes as no surprise that the extraordinary events<br />

that have roiled the U.S. economy over the past two years have had a deep impact on the chemical<br />

industry. What is surprising is that although the recession began in December 2007 1 , it wasn’t apparent<br />

based on the performance of the chemicals industry until the fall of 2008, when the troubles in the<br />

financial sector finally spilled over into the industrial economy.<br />

Our analysis shows that<br />

North American chemical<br />

companies continued to<br />

report revenue growth until<br />

the third quarter of 2008,<br />

even as real GDP began to<br />

falter and then decline<br />

(Figure 1). For example,<br />

when year-over-year real<br />

GDP declined by 0.7% in<br />

the first quarter of 2008,<br />

chemical industry<br />

revenues grew by 4.6%.<br />

Second and third quarter<br />

growth was also strong,<br />

coming in at 4.6% and<br />

3.5% respectively. Some<br />

Figure 1: U.S. Chemical Industry Revenues and GDP 2007 – 2009<br />

Chemical Revenues Index<br />

(Q1 2007 = 1)<br />

1.40<br />

1.20<br />

1.00<br />

0.80<br />

0.60<br />

0.40<br />

0.20<br />

-<br />

GDP Percent Change<br />

(Right Axis)<br />

Chemical Industry Revenues<br />

(Left Axis)<br />

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and <strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>. Chemical industry revenues are<br />

represented by the indexed performance of 59 selected chemical companies.<br />

of this growth can be attributed to chemical producers raising prices in response to higher energy costs,<br />

but unit volumes also were increasing during this period. Weekly railcar loadings of chemicals – the<br />

closest proxy we have to a real-time indicator of the health of the chemical industry – showed a steady<br />

uptrend during this period, with volumes rising nearly 4% between March 2007 and September 2008. 2<br />

(Figure 2). But there were warning signals that things were about to change. Fundamentals were<br />

deteriorating in the first half of 2008. Margins were being squeezed, especially for manufacturers of<br />

commodity petrochemicals that were challenged by rising energy and feedstock costs during what in<br />

retrospect was the third financial bubble of the decade: a period when the price of crude oil more than<br />

doubled in less than 18 months to a record level of over $147 per barrel. 3 Production and capacity<br />

utilization were declining, partly due to increased energy costs and partly due to weakening demand in<br />

end markets – notably housing and construction, but also in other consumer durables markets such as<br />

automobiles and electronics (Figure 3).<br />

1 The National Bureau of Economic Research, a group of private economists charged with dating business cycles, announced in<br />

December 2008 that business activity had peaked in December 2007, marking the beginning of the recession.<br />

2 Chemical railcar loadings are published weekly by the Association of American Railroads, and measure the number of freight<br />

cars loaded with chemical products in the previous week. Though it does not measure tonnage, it is still a useful and timely<br />

measure of unit volume trends. The American Chemistry Council reports that railroad shipments account for about 23% of chemical<br />

transportation tonnage and 20% of chemical transportation costs.<br />

3 The first two bubbles were, of course, technology stocks during 1997 - 2000 and real estate between 2003 and 2007. Financial<br />

bubbles may be recognizable only in retrospect, and it may be too early to say whether oil prices in 2007-2008 were a classic<br />

bubble. But the evidence speaks for itself. The rapid increase between January 2007 and July 2008 was hardly justified by global<br />

industrial production, supply constraints, or any other macro variable that affects the price of oil. Also, as steep as the increase in<br />

crude oil prices was, the fall was even steeper: on December 21, 2008, oil was trading at $33.87 per barrel, less than ¼ of the<br />

$147.27 record reached a little over four months earlier on July 11 th .<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />

6.0%<br />

4.0%<br />

2.0%<br />

0.0%<br />

-2.0%<br />

-4.0%<br />

-6.0%<br />

-8.0%<br />

GDP Percent Change<br />

Revenue<br />

GDP<br />

4


<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING 2010<br />

And then came the 4 th quarter of 2008, which effectively began in mid-September with the bankruptcy of<br />

Lehman Brothers and the $85 billion bailout of AIG by the Federal Reserve. These two events seemed to<br />

expose all the excesses in the financial markets that had been building for years. The financial system<br />

came very close to a “systemic” collapse, nearly dragging the entire global economy with it. Although the<br />

economy had already been in recession for almost a year, economists then were seriously debating<br />

whether a repeat of the Great Depression was at hand.<br />

To avoid a worst case<br />

scenario, the Federal Reserve<br />

cut interest rates nearly to<br />

zero and injected trillions of<br />

Figure 2: Chemical Railcar Loadings: March 2007 – December 2008<br />

40,000<br />

Trendline<br />

35,000<br />

dollars into the economy to<br />

boost liquidity, while Congress<br />

30,000<br />

passed first the Troubled<br />

25,000<br />

Asset Relief Program 20,000<br />

(“TARP”) and then a massive 15,000<br />

$787 billion stimulus plan<br />

initiated by the new Obama<br />

10,000<br />

administration. The credit 5,000<br />

markets were effectively<br />

frozen as banks, no longer<br />

sure how to value certain<br />

-<br />

financial assets on their Source: American Association of Railroads<br />

balance sheets, refused to<br />

make new loans as they hoarded cash as a reserve against future write-downs they believed were<br />

inevitable. In short, banks’ earnings became irrelevant as liquidity became the only meaningful metric.<br />

Figure 3: Chemical Industry Production and Capacity Utilization<br />

Production Index (2002=100)<br />

120<br />

115<br />

110<br />

105<br />

100<br />

95<br />

90<br />

Capacity<br />

Utilization<br />

(right axis)<br />

Source: Federal Reserve Board<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />

# of Railcars<br />

The ripple effects of the turmoil in the financial markets on chemical manufacturing, as with just about<br />

every other industry, were dramatic and immediate. In the fourth quarter of 2008, demand for chemicals<br />

collapsed along with consumer spending, and inventory levels rose as companies could not cut<br />

production fast enough. (Figure 4).<br />

Chemical<br />

Production<br />

(left axis)<br />

82%<br />

80%<br />

78%<br />

76%<br />

74%<br />

72%<br />

70%<br />

68%<br />

66%<br />

64%<br />

62%<br />

60%<br />

Capacity Utilization %<br />

In late 2008 and early 2009, BASF,<br />

Dow Chemical, PPG, Ineos,<br />

Eastman, 3M, Praxair, Huntsman<br />

and others announced plant<br />

closures, layoffs or other<br />

restructuring initiatives. For some,<br />

that wasn’t enough: LyondellBasell,<br />

Chemtura, and Tronox had to seek<br />

Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.<br />

Pending M&A transactions were<br />

delayed due to difficulties in<br />

obtaining financing or the<br />

deteriorating financial performance<br />

of the target companies. And some<br />

high-profile deals, like Hexion’s<br />

agreement to acquire Huntsman,<br />

5


<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING 2010<br />

were cancelled outright, and<br />

the uncertainty surrounding<br />

Dow’s acquisition of Rohm &<br />

Haas remained up until the<br />

day of closing.<br />

In the first few months of<br />

2009, there was a relentless<br />

1.25<br />

parade of bad news, but the<br />

1.20<br />

seeds of recovery had been<br />

planted. The stock market<br />

1.15<br />

turned around in early March<br />

1.10<br />

of 2009; the credit markets 1.05<br />

began to thaw, and by<br />

summer, GDP was growing<br />

again. Using the chemical<br />

1.00<br />

industry as a bellwether for<br />

the larger economy, incipient<br />

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics<br />

signs of recovery were<br />

beginning to take hold as early as January 2009. Weekly chemical railcar loadings, which plunged in the<br />

last four months of 2008, stabilized in January and stayed within a relatively tight range of 24,000 to<br />

27,000 carloads per week until mid-summer, when a discernable uptrend began to take hold (Figure 5).<br />

Industrial production of chemical products and capacity utilization also began to make a strong comeback<br />

beginning in January. Throughout the year, a weakening U.S. dollar supported exports, and the chemical<br />

industry was able to take advantage of relatively strong demand in emerging markets such as China,<br />

where many major producers had built new plants in previous years. In the fourth quarter of 2009, BASF,<br />

Dow, RPM, A. Schulman, and PPG all reported improvements in profits as a result of cost-cutting, even<br />

though revenues continued to be weak.<br />

For 2010, absent any unforeseen shocks to the financial system or a relapse into a double-dip recession,<br />

we can expect continued improvements in profitability as the benefits of cost-cutting and restructuring<br />

undertaken in 2009 impact the bottom line. Revenues also should begin a gradual recovery as the<br />

economic expansion spreads and deepens in all sectors of the economy. According to the American<br />

Figure 5: Chemical Railcar Loadings: March 2007 – November 2009<br />

Chemistry Council, global<br />

chemical industry output is<br />

40,000<br />

projected to increase 4.6% in<br />

35,000<br />

Trendline<br />

2010, offsetting a decline of<br />

30,000<br />

Trendline<br />

that percentage in 2009,<br />

although this improvement<br />

25,000<br />

does not return production to<br />

20,000<br />

previous levels. Growth in the<br />

15,000<br />

developed economies – North<br />

America and Europe – will not<br />

10,000<br />

be as strong as in Asia and<br />

5,000<br />

other developing regions. The<br />

-<br />

ACC projects growth of 3.4% in<br />

the U.S. and 2.7% in Western<br />

Europe for the chemical<br />

Source: American Association of Railroads<br />

industry. The real growth will<br />

be in the emerging markets,<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />

Figure 4: Ratio of Chemical Industry Inventories to Shipments:<br />

January 2007 – October 2009<br />

1.35<br />

1.30<br />

6


<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING 2010<br />

with chemical production in<br />

the Asia-Pacific region<br />

growing at 6.9% and Latin<br />

America at 4.8%. China,<br />

supported by the<br />

government’s heavy<br />

investments in the materials<br />

industries, is expected to<br />

grow by more than 11%<br />

(Figure 6).<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />

Figure 6: Global Chemistry Production Outlook<br />

% Change From Prior Period<br />

% Change From Prior Period<br />

15.0%<br />

10.0%<br />

5.0%<br />

0.0%<br />

-5.0%<br />

-10.0%<br />

-15.0%<br />

North America<br />

Latin America<br />

Western Europe<br />

Russia & Eastern Europe<br />

Africa & Middle East<br />

Asia - Pacific<br />

Looking beyond 2010, the<br />

prospects for the U.S.<br />

chemical industry are less<br />

clear, and the growth<br />

scenario described above<br />

depends very much on the<br />

ultimate success of the<br />

government’s recent fiscal<br />

and monetary policy. It may<br />

be true that the extraordinary<br />

and unprecedented efforts of<br />

Chemistry Production Outlook: Selected Countries<br />

25.0%<br />

20.0%<br />

15.0%<br />

10.0%<br />

5.0%<br />

0.0%<br />

-5.0%<br />

-10.0%<br />

United States<br />

Brazil<br />

Germany<br />

China<br />

India<br />

the federal government<br />

-15.0%<br />

during late 2008 and early<br />

2009 stabilized the financial<br />

-20.0%<br />

markets and set the stage<br />

for recovery. But it may be<br />

Source: American Chemistry Council<br />

too early to tell whether this will “work” in the long-run, because whatever the short-term effects, the<br />

ultimate economic costs of the government’s actions are still undetermined. The expansion of the money<br />

supply and the federal debt over the past 16 months are the largest ever in peacetime, and to think these<br />

expansions will not have unintended, and perhaps difficult to control, side effects may be extraordinarily<br />

naïve. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has been glib about the Fed’s loose monetary policy,<br />

merely saying that, at the appropriate time, the central bank will act quickly to withdraw excess liquidity to<br />

ward off any incipient inflation.<br />

As for the fiscal stimulus, ramping up government spending to stimulate the economy historically has<br />

come too late in the cycle to do any good, and ends up mostly just ratcheting up the national debt and<br />

increasing the pressure for new taxation. 4 Also, the effects of the fiscal stimulus may prove to be fleeting.<br />

Spending on infrastructure and other “hard asset” projects may benefit chemical manufacturing in the<br />

short-term, but lasting, long-term growth will depend on the health of consumer markets. If consumer<br />

demand remains weak because of a lingering debt burden, chemicals -- specialties in particular -- could<br />

become mired in a low-growth scenario for years. The “Cash for Clunkers” program may offer a preview<br />

of this dynamic: vehicle sales rose dramatically during the summer of 2009 when the program was in<br />

effect, but fell off quickly once the program was discontinued in August. 5<br />

4 Of the six fiscal stimulus packages passed in response to the six recessions between 1948 and 1982, all were enacted after the<br />

recovery already had begun. See “If it Ain’t Broke, Don’t Fix It”, Bruce Bartlett, Wall Street Journal, Dec. 2, 1992. That the chemical<br />

industry began to recover as early as January 2009 suggests that this recession and recovery may be following a familiar pattern.<br />

5 As further evidence that the effects of government stimulus may be temporary, consider that in November 2009, housing sales<br />

fell by 16% as home buyers anticipated the expiration of the homebuyer’s tax credit. The tax credit has since been extended to April<br />

2010.<br />

7


<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING 2010<br />

Added together, the after-effects of the federal government’s recession-fighting policies of 2008-2009<br />

could mean higher inflation, persistently high unemployment, and anemic real economic growth. In short,<br />

we could be headed for a return to the stagflation economy of the 70s.<br />

It doesn’t take too much imagination to think how this might affect a still weakened industry. If you paid<br />

attention only to the stock market, you might think a “V” shaped recovery was underway, but the<br />

fundamental data doesn’t support this view. Though chemical industry shipments stabilized in 2009<br />

(Figure 7), it’s like a “reset” button was pressed: growth is slow and fragile from a lower baseline, and it<br />

will be a long time before industry shipments return to the peak level attained in the summer of 2008.<br />

Other signs of fragility: a downtrend in industry employment, on-going for many years, accelerated during<br />

the downturn and shows no signs of recovery. With all the plant closings and tightened credit conditions,<br />

business investment is down and capacity for many basic chemicals is shifting overseas.<br />

Figure 7: Chemical Industry Value of Shipments<br />

$63,000<br />

There are other industry-specific risks<br />

that will affect chemical manufacturers<br />

over the next few years.<br />

$61,000<br />

Manufacturers are beginning to brace<br />

$59,000<br />

for a less business-friendly regulatory<br />

$57,000<br />

environment. With the new<br />

$55,000<br />

Democratic administration, an<br />

$53,000<br />

emphasis on going “green” is going to<br />

$51,000<br />

become more pronounced as the<br />

$49,000<br />

focus shifts in 2010 from healthcare<br />

$47,000<br />

and financial reform to environmental<br />

$45,000<br />

and energy policy. Though the shift to<br />

a greener economy will offer<br />

opportunities for chemical<br />

Source: U.S. Census Bureau<br />

manufacturers in the long-term, the<br />

transition is not likely to be without<br />

pain. Cap and trade, the subject of the following article, if passed would disproportionately cut into the<br />

profitability of the U.S. chemical industry and put it at a competitive disadvantage relative to foreign<br />

competitors who don’t have the same constraints.<br />

Millions of Dollars<br />

The EPA has already adopted a more activist posture, having determined last April that six greenhouse<br />

gases pose a threat to human health and should be regulated under the Clean Air Act. A likely outcome<br />

is that energy-intensive industries, such as chemicals and steel, would have higher operating costs if<br />

carbon dioxide is regulated and would then have an additional motivation to move production overseas.<br />

Also on the EPA’s agenda is the reform of the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA). Proposals under<br />

consideration include fees on chemical manufacturers to help pay for safety assessments of commercial<br />

compounds and easing limitations on the agency’s ability to place restrictions on or ban chemicals that<br />

are not considered safe.<br />

Further, the Obama administration appears to be the most union-friendly administration since FDR.<br />

President Obama and a number of other Democratic congressional leaders support the Employee Free<br />

Choice Act (EFCA), now under consideration in Congress. If passed, the Act will amend the National<br />

Labor Relations Act to allow “card check”, a method that would enable employees to organize a union by<br />

getting a simple majority of employees to sign authorization forms, or “cards”, stating they wish to be<br />

represented by a union. It would make unions easier to organize by by-passing the typical process of<br />

having employees vote to unionize through secret ballots. As pointed out by its many critics, eliminating<br />

the secret ballot opens the way for coercive tactics on the part of labor organizers and strips away an<br />

employee’s right to privacy in deciding whether to support union representation. If passed, the Act will<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />

8


<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING 2010<br />

inevitably raise labor costs for smaller manufacturers and put them at a relative disadvantage to foreign<br />

competitors who have access to non-unionized labor.<br />

If we have focused on some of the more difficult challenges facing the chemical industry, we want to<br />

emphasize that these issues affect the short-term outlook the most, and that growth resulting from<br />

innovation, the real driver of long-term change in the chemical industry, is difficult to predict and even<br />

harder to quantify. Ten years from now, the U.S. chemical industry is likely to look considerably different<br />

than it does today. Where practical, production of basic petrochemicals and inorganics probably will have<br />

shifted overseas. U.S.-based operations will largely consist of specialty manufacturers who have been<br />

able to adapt to the changed economics of the 21 st century. The trend for some specialty chemicals to<br />

become commodities will have continued, with manufacturers that have focused of developing brands<br />

supported by low-cost manufacturing, efficient distribution, and excellent customer service likely to be<br />

survivors. But there will be newer “specialties” coming online that will represent a new, high-tech image<br />

for the industry. Nanotechnology, energy storage, and bio-polymers are just three examples of areas that<br />

are ripe for innovation and commercialization. Just as digital computers may have been the cutting-edge<br />

industry in the 20 th century, material science -- in particular chemical material science -- may be the<br />

cutting-edge industry in the 21 st.<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />

9


<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING SPRING 2010 2010<br />

CAP AND TRADE: CHEMICAL INDUSTRY WINNERS AND LOSERS<br />

Over the past year a carbon dioxide (CO2) cap and trade program, known as the Waxman-Markey bill, has been<br />

making its way through the United States Congress. The purported goal of the controversial bill is to address global<br />

warming and encourage the development of new, clean energy technologies. Controversial from the beginning, the<br />

bill has measures that could impose costly restrictions on energy-intensive industries, ultimately reducing their<br />

international competitiveness, lowering profitability, and likely eliminating jobs. Support from Democratic politicians<br />

and environmentalists, particularly after the Democrats won control of Congress and the White House in 2008, had<br />

outweighed the opposition from the Republican Party and other interested parties. However, recent developments<br />

surrounding the rigor of data collection and analysis supporting claims of climate change (including the possibility of<br />

deliberate misrepresentations and the suppression of contravening evidence) have raised questions about the<br />

likelihood of passage.<br />

The key provisions of the bill, if ratified, will limit, or “cap”<br />

CO2 emissions in the U.S. The cap is set to decline over<br />

time, forcing carbon emissions to fall to 83% of 2005 levels<br />

by 2020 and eventually to 17% of 2005 levels by 2050.<br />

Regulated entities, such as companies in carbon-intensive<br />

industries (e.g., electric power utilities; steel, chemical and<br />

other heavy manufacturers) would be required to hold<br />

allowances that permit them to emit CO2, with each<br />

allowance worth one metric ton of CO2. Initially, all major<br />

emitters of CO2 would receive allowances sufficient to cover<br />

their current level of emissions. After this initial distribution,<br />

a market for trading allowances would develop, providing<br />

allowance holders the ability to sell their unused allowances<br />

to other companies. In practice, as the annual cap is<br />

reduced and the total number of allowances in circulation<br />

declines, companies would be forced to either reduce<br />

emissions or purchase additional allowances on the open<br />

market. In theory, it would be a relatively straight-forward<br />

economic decision: a company will choose whichever<br />

option is less expensive at the time. But as in any free<br />

market, as the supply of allowances decreases over time,<br />

their prices will rise, and choosing emissions abatement will<br />

increasingly become the more attractive option.<br />

The plan appears as if it would work mechanically, but it is<br />

clear that cap and trade will raise the price of energy and<br />

energy-related goods to American consumers; the question of “how much” has been the subject of much<br />

controversy 6 . What has not received as much attention is just how much cap and trade is going to harm U.S.<br />

industry’s competitive position against foreign companies that do not operate under such restrictions, especially in<br />

emerging economies such as India and China. Steel, paper and chemicals, all of which are carbon-intensive and<br />

face tight competition in the global marketplace, would be especially affected.<br />

6 Based on an analysis of a discussion draft of the bill, the Environmental Protection Agency estimates that cap and trade would cost the<br />

average household between $98 and $140 per year. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill would be relatively deficit neutral<br />

for the federal government, with an average cost to households of about 0.2% of annual income. Other groups have disputed these estimates:<br />

the Competitive Enterprise Institute believes the bill would be essentially the “largest tax hike in history”, and the American Petroleum Institute<br />

estimates that the bill would raise the price of gasoline and other fuels to the equivalent of $4.00 a gallon by today’s standards.<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />

10


<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING SPRING 2010<br />

2010<br />

One of the largest sources of CO2 emissions in the U.S., accounting for about 5% of the total, is the chemical<br />

industry. The effects of limiting CO2 emissions and carbon trading on the industry are likely to be complex, and to<br />

the extent that some companies may be able to pass their increased costs on to consumers, they may benefit from<br />

the program. <strong>Inc</strong>reased costs at the end-user level also will raise demand for energy-saving products such as a<br />

hybrid vehicles, solar panels, and energy-efficient appliances. Manufacturers that provide materials used in energysaving<br />

products (e.g., silicon used to manufacture solar panels) may experience sales growth from increased<br />

product demand. DuPont, for example, expects its sales of renewable materials that displace fossil fuels to double<br />

to $8 billion by 2015 7 .<br />

But the fact remains that, over time, the cap will be reduced, and an allowance to emit CO2 will become increasingly<br />

expensive, disproportionately affecting chemical manufacturers. For large chemical players, the effects of cap and<br />

trade on overall company profitability may be minimal. These companies can access new carbon abatement<br />

technologies and other alternative energy programs, and spread their cost over a large revenue and asset base. In<br />

general, they also have greater flexibility than smaller companies in addressing the issue: some are installing<br />

projects that will lower both their energy costs and CO2 emissions, potentially allowing them to generate revenue by<br />

selling their unused allowances. Dow Chemical, for example, uses methane from a landfill to power a plant in<br />

Dalton, GA, where it makes carpet backing. Further, from an unpleasant realpolitik perspective, large firms, through<br />

political connections and lobbyist efforts, have an advantage over their smaller competitors in shaping the details of<br />

the legislation.<br />

Additionally, large chemical players can roll out abatement technologies and new energy-saving programs over a<br />

large pool of operating plants. They can shift production to their more efficient facilities, and as more emissionabatement<br />

programs are employed throughout their companies, implementation costs will decrease. They can also<br />

transfer production overseas, where many already have established operations in regions that don’t regulate CO2<br />

emissions, such as Asia or the Middle East.<br />

On the other hand, small chemical firms likely will face a different set of challenges. These firms may have limited<br />

access to capital and/or carbon abatement technologies. They may not be able to shift production to more efficient<br />

plants or overseas, leaving them no choice but to purchase additional allowances or install abatement technologies.<br />

The effects may be especially harmful to small companies that are growing – and creating jobs. With their CO2<br />

emissions capped and with the cap declining every year, incremental revenues from growth will be accompanied by<br />

escalating costs, such that requiring them to pay to emit more CO2 would act as a disincentive, slowing or even<br />

curtailing their growth. It will create a “Wizard of Oz” - like situation for mid-sized U.S. based manufacturers:<br />

“Surrender Dorothy” is writ large on the horizon. Passage of Waxman-Markey will likely drive a number of viable,<br />

privately-held U.S. chemical manufacturers toward selling to major multinationals.<br />

If the Waxman-Markey bill is ratified, large chemical manufacturers will ultimately be in a position to benefit at the<br />

expense of smaller manufacturers – indeed, that may be one reason why some large companies have come out in<br />

support of the bill. Whether the bill will actually mitigate global warming is open to question, especially since any<br />

meaningful reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions will require significant cooperation at an international<br />

level.<br />

This being the case, the issue may really come down to whether it is good industrial policy for the United States to<br />

penalize smaller manufacturers – especially those using energy intensive processes -- for their success, especially<br />

since small companies have historically created most of the new jobs in our economy. The bill may be wellintentioned,<br />

but unless it has some reasonable chance to achieve its goals, why does it make sense if its only real<br />

effect would be to hurt U.S. manufacturing and ship jobs overseas?<br />

Throughout much of 2009, the chances for passage of the bill appeared high. The bill was passed in the House of<br />

Representatives over the summer of 2009 and sent on to the Senate. The bill faces a tougher environment there,<br />

7 The Wall Street Journal, “Chemical Makers Poised to Gain in New Cap-and-Trade System”, June 2009.<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />

11


<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING 2010<br />

especially given the Republican party’s nearly unanimous opposition and the loss of the Democrat’s filibuster-proof<br />

supermajority with the election of Republican Scott Brown to the vacant Massachusetts Senate seat. Further, there<br />

is a growing suspicion among the electorate that “cap and trade” is much more about favorable economics for those<br />

who cap and those who trade, instead of making a true impact on limiting climate change. Finally, climate change<br />

skeptics are now being taken seriously in both scientific and media circles, which hopefully will lead to better<br />

science and more intelligent legislation.<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />

12


<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING 2010<br />

AN INDUSTRY TRANSFORMED:<br />

<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> M&A 2007-2010<br />

For most of the first decade of the century, chemicals had all the characteristics that make for a robust M&A market:<br />

the emergence of multi-national players with an appetite for growth, the prospect for enhanced profitability through<br />

synergies and economies of scale, the easy availability of debt financing and private equity capital, and especially a<br />

pipeline of attractive assets – with valuations rising, shareholders of privately-held firms with strong cash flows and<br />

defensible market niches were more than willing to bring assets to market. Established chemical strategic firms,<br />

understanding that the surest way to grow faster than the economy was through acquisitions, transformed<br />

themselves into multi-nationals with diverse product portfolios that extended into a number of end-use markets.<br />

The apex for chemicals M&A was 2007, when<br />

transactions totaling more than $55 billion in<br />

value were completed, 31% higher than the<br />

previous record year of 2006 with $42 billion 1 .<br />

The numbers were skewed somewhat by a<br />

number of “transformational” mega-deals, that<br />

is, large transactions that represented a<br />

fundamental make-over of a well-known<br />

company and by implication altered the shape<br />

of the entire industry. In 2007, Basell merged<br />

with Lyondell in a deal valued at $19.2 billion<br />

and Sabic purchased General Electric’s<br />

plastics business for $11.6 billion. Other<br />

industry-shaping transactions that were<br />

announced in 2007, but not completed until early 2008, included Akzo Nobel’s acquisition of ICI for $16.6 billion and<br />

PPG’s purchase of SigmaKalon Group for $3.2 billion.<br />

2007 also may have been the high-water mark for private equity’s investment in the industry. Since 2003, private<br />

equity firms had been raising significant amounts of new capital, and with easy credit availability, were under<br />

pressure to put those funds to work (Figure 2). Private equity played a big role in the steady upward trend in<br />

chemical transaction multiples during this period, and to many investment bankers working in the chemicals area, it<br />

appeared that private equity buyers basically had parity with strategics when it came to competing for high-quality<br />

assets. Because private equity funds had access to easy credit and were investing in market segments that were<br />

consolidating, many became quasi-strategic firms<br />

Figure 2: Private Equity Capital Raises 2003 – 2008 themselves, as they first acquired a platform company<br />

and then followed up with additional strategic bolt-on<br />

$700.0<br />

acquisitions.<br />

Yearly Total in Billions of Dollars<br />

$600.0<br />

$500.0<br />

$400.0<br />

$300.0<br />

$200.0<br />

$100.0<br />

$0.0<br />

Source: Thompson Financial<br />

1 Estimated by Young & Partners, New York, counting transactions with a value greater than $25 million.<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />

Buyouts/Corporate<br />

Finance<br />

Venture Capital<br />

Mezzanine<br />

Other Private Equity<br />

Fund of Funds<br />

Figure 1: “Transformational” Deals 2007-2009<br />

Buyer Target Closed Value<br />

Basell Lyondell 2007 $19.2 Billion<br />

Dow<br />

Chemical<br />

Rohm & Haas 2008 $18.8 Billion<br />

Akzo Nobel ICI 2008 $16.6 Billion<br />

Sabic GE Plastics 2007 $11.8 Billion<br />

Henkel<br />

Adhesives and<br />

Electronics Materials<br />

Business of National<br />

Starch & Chemicals<br />

2009 $5.4 Billion<br />

Ashland Hercules 2009 $3.1 Billion<br />

The credit crunch that began in the summer of 2007<br />

seemed initially to affect only the larger transactions,<br />

particularly those that were highly leveraged. Hexion’s<br />

aborted acquisition of Huntsman is a case in point. At<br />

the height of the M&A boom in June 2007, Hexion,<br />

owned by private equity giant Apollo Management,<br />

outbid Basell to announce that it would acquire<br />

Huntsman for $10.4 billion. But as the credit crisis and<br />

the economic downturn deepened, Huntsman’s<br />

13


<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING SPRING 2010<br />

2010<br />

performance deteriorated. First Apollo and Hexion, and then their banks, tried to back out of the deal, claiming that<br />

Huntsman’s level of debt would render the combined companies insolvent. Huntsman went to court, and eventually<br />

settled with Apollo, Hexion and the banks for a combined $2.7 billion.<br />

Smaller transactions continued to close through the fourth quarter of 2007 and the first three quarters of 2008.<br />

Strategics often could fund deals with cash, stock, or a combination of the two, and private equity buyers could be<br />

more creative with transaction structures and financing arrangements. But as 2008 progressed, deal volume<br />

slowed as banks continued to tighten lending standards as the sub-prime crisis began to spill over into other sectors<br />

of the credit markets.<br />

Figure 3: Enterprise Value/Revenues 2007 – 2009<br />

After the collapse of Lehman Brothers in<br />

September, the financial markets entered into a<br />

period of near chaos that lasted through the<br />

end of the year. Most potential buyers and<br />

sellers could not justify entering the M&A<br />

market at this time. With the economy in the<br />

midst of the worst recession since World War II,<br />

revenue and earnings visibility was nonexistent,<br />

making it nearly impossible for<br />

potential buyers to get an accurate read on a<br />

company’s future cash flows. Valuation<br />

became a matter of guess work, with neither<br />

public company values nor private transactions<br />

having much to offer in the way of guidance.<br />

Public company multiples, after declining in late<br />

2008, actually began to increase after the first<br />

quarter of 2009, but this was due to a combination of depressed revenues and earnings and increasing market<br />

capitalizations after the stock market turned around in early March. But most investors recognized these “improved”<br />

valuations for what they were: statistical outliers that are typical at the end of a recession or the beginning of a<br />

recovery (Figure 3). Many would-be sellers of quality chemical firms, aware that private market values remained<br />

down, realized that there was just too much risk involved in putting their companies on the market. Under the<br />

circumstances, it was easier to just do nothing, preserve cash, and wait for the markets to stabilize and a<br />

sustainable recovery to begin.<br />

Some strategic transactions continued to move forward, but there were many roadblocks on the way to closing.<br />

The experience of Dow Chemical was symptomatic of many companies trying to do deals during this period.<br />

Determined to remake itself into a less-cyclical, more-specialties focused company, Dow in July 2008 announced it<br />

would acquire Rohm & Haas for $18.8 billion. Late in 2008, a planned JV with Kuwait’s Petrochemical Industries<br />

Company fell through. Dow, which had been counting on receiving $9 billion from the JV that would be used to<br />

support the Rohm & Haas deal, found itself without the financing it needed to complete the transaction. Dow and<br />

Rohm & Haas both made their case in court, and after a three month delay, the deal did close in April 2009.<br />

Both the economy and the financial markets stabilized in the first quarter of 2009, and deal flow gradually began to<br />

recover. Though overall deal activity for 2009 was down even from the depressed levels of 2008, there are signs<br />

that conditions are improving. Banks, though still cautious, are lending again, and cash-rich companies have begun<br />

making acquisitions where they can find a good value and a solid strategic rationale. Restructuring efforts have<br />

also begun to pay off, with some companies under leveraged or flush with cash that could be used to support<br />

acquisitions.<br />

We believe that 2010 is going to be a surprisingly good year for chemicals M&A. There has been nearly two years<br />

of depressed activity during which a number of high-quality companies have been withheld from the market.<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />

1.6<br />

1.4<br />

1.2<br />

1<br />

0.8<br />

0.6<br />

0.4<br />

0.2<br />

0<br />

Source: <strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>’ analysis of 59 selected publicly traded chemical<br />

companies<br />

14


<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING 2010<br />

Multiples may come back sooner than many have expected, and as soon as a few deals close at good valuations, a<br />

lot of good companies are going to come to market.<br />

Those in the best position to move forward<br />

are the well-capitalized strategic buyers<br />

(Figure 4). Simply put, companies with low<br />

debt, excess cash balances, and strong<br />

operating cash flows can “afford” the risk of<br />

making acquisitions, whereas competitors<br />

with weaker balance sheets cannot. And if<br />

they have a history of successful growth<br />

through acquisitions, now may be a great<br />

time for these companies to seek out highquality<br />

targets. As an example, coatings<br />

companies like Akzo Nobel, PPG Industries,<br />

RPM, Valspar, and Sherwin-Williams,<br />

among others, have managed to emerge<br />

from the recession with relatively strong<br />

balance sheets and have a core<br />

competency in strategic M&A. Many of<br />

these companies can pursue opportunities<br />

without the need to seek outside financing<br />

or, if they choose to do so, can receive<br />

favorable terms based on the strength of<br />

their balance sheets.<br />

A recent pick-up in M&A activity suggests<br />

that large, billion-dollar strategic deals may<br />

be ready for a comeback. An example is Air<br />

Products’ recent efforts to acquire Airgas.<br />

In September 2009, Air Products offered an<br />

all stock deal to Airgas, and when that was<br />

rejected, offered a combination of stock and<br />

cash that was also rejected as<br />

“undervalued” by Airgas’s board. In early<br />

February 2010, Air Products came back<br />

with an all cash proposal of $60 per share, representing a 40% premium over the price Airgas’s stock was trading at<br />

before the offer. Air Products had already received a commitment for debt financing from J.P. Morgan. Although<br />

there are solid strategic reasons for merging the companies, Airgas’s board still believed the offer “grossly<br />

undervalued” Airgas, and rejected the proposal. At the time of this writing, Air Products is going hostile with their<br />

bid.<br />

Without the driver of potential synergizes, private equity firms face a more challenging landscape, but given that<br />

they have a lot of capital and chemicals are an attractive area to invest, they are likely to compete for high-quality<br />

assets. Dow Chemical, for example, has put its $5.0 billion/year styrenics and aromatics business on the block, and<br />

a number of private equity group have shown interest, including Apollo, Bain Capital, TPG Capital, and Rhone<br />

Capital. Credit conditions are improving, and banks are likely to loosen restrictions even more as the economy<br />

improves. Until that time, private equity groups will compete by being more creative with deal structures. One<br />

approach is to “over-equitize” a transaction, where the private equity group initially invests more equity in a deal and<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />

Figure 4: Financial Strength of Selected Chemical Manufacturers<br />

Net Debt*<br />

/ EBITDA<br />

Enterprise<br />

Values /<br />

Revenues<br />

(ttm)<br />

Enterprise<br />

Value /<br />

EBITDA<br />

(ttm)<br />

3M 0.4 2.6 9.8<br />

Akzo Nobel N.V. 1.0 0.9 7.2<br />

Air Products & Chemicals, <strong>Inc</strong>. 2.0 2.6 10.5<br />

Albemarle Corporation 1.6 1.2 12.8<br />

Ashland <strong>Inc</strong>. 1.6 0.5 5.6<br />

BASF Corporation 1.5 0.9 5.9<br />

The Dow Chemical Company 5.2 1.2 16.1<br />

Cytec Industries, <strong>Inc</strong>. 2.3 0.9 9.7<br />

DSM N.V. 1.6 0.9 8.4<br />

DuPont 2.3 1.4 10.8<br />

Eastman Chemical Company 1.3 1.0 7.9<br />

H.B. Fuller Co. 0.7 0.9 7.6<br />

The Lubrizol Corporation 0.6 1.4 7.0<br />

Olin Corporation NA** 0.8 5.2<br />

PPG Industries, <strong>Inc</strong>. 1.9 1.0 9.1<br />

RPM International 1.4 0.9 7.7<br />

The Sherwin-Williams Company 0.7 1.1 8.8<br />

Sensient Technologies Corp. 2.2 1.5 8.8<br />

The Valspar Corporation 1.7 1.2 8.4<br />

W.R. <strong>Grace</strong> & Co. 0.4 0.6 5.9<br />

Median 1.6 1.0 8.4<br />

Mean 1.6 1.2 8.7<br />

*Net Debt = Funded debt minus cash and cash equivalents.<br />

**Cash balances exceeds debt<br />

15


<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING 2010<br />

seeks debt financing later. Other alternatives include using earn-outs, seller notes, and “in-house” debt as<br />

substitutes for traditional bank financing.<br />

One issue that private equity investors will have to face in the next few years is their exit strategy for portfolio<br />

companies acquired in the pre-recession period when valuations were at a peak. If a portfolio company was<br />

purchased at a cyclical peak for a high multiple, a private equity seller would do well to consider a customized<br />

approach to selling the business. A traditional process that results in bids that are all below an acceptable threshold<br />

can be a disaster: the company may have to be pulled off the market and its future value could be significantly<br />

impaired. A better course may be a targeted, yet still competitive, process, where the potential buyers would be<br />

limited to those that have an exceptional strategic or synergistic fit with the portfolio company. In these cases,<br />

extensive up-front work is necessary to identify and quantify the fit with the strategic buyer in order for the seller to<br />

share in the value of the merger.<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />

16


<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING 2010<br />

2007-2010 CHEMICAL INDUSTRY SELECTED<br />

TRANSACTIONS<br />

D<strong>AT</strong>E ACQUIRER TARGET<br />

Feb-10 Sherwin-Williams Industrial Coatings Business of Arch Chemicals<br />

Jan-10 Arkema<br />

Dow Chemical’s Acrylic Acid & Esthers Business / Specialty Latex<br />

Business<br />

Jan-10 Zep<br />

Amrep<br />

Nov-09 Ellipse Capital Ward Adhesives<br />

Nov-09<br />

Oct-09<br />

Oct-09<br />

Dow Corning<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />

American Securities Capital<br />

Partners<br />

Milliken Chemical<br />

Globe Specialty Materials US and Brazilian Silicon Metal Manufacturing<br />

Assets<br />

GenTek<br />

Rebus<br />

Aug-09 GenNx360 Capital Partners Clariant Corporation’s Specialty Silicones Business (SiVance, LLC)<br />

Aug-09<br />

Honeywell<br />

RMG Group<br />

Jul-09 Altana Water Ink Technologies<br />

Jul-09<br />

Praxair<br />

Sermatech International<br />

Jun-09 Sun Chemical Handschy Industries<br />

Jun-09<br />

DSM<br />

Biopract<br />

Jun-09 LANXESS Gwalior Chemical Industries<br />

May-09<br />

Clariant<br />

XL Performance Chemicals<br />

Apr-09 H.B. Fuller Nordic Adhesives<br />

Apr-09<br />

Dow Chemical Company<br />

Rohm & Haas<br />

Apr-09 Bayer AG Polyurethane Systems House of Neochimiki<br />

Apr-09<br />

Sherwin-Williams<br />

Altax<br />

Apr-09 Clearview Capital Troy Industries<br />

Apr-09<br />

Rhodia<br />

McIntyre Group<br />

Apr-09 Akzo Nobel NV Kronochem's Wood Adhesives Business<br />

Feb-09<br />

Venture Tape Corp (3M)<br />

Feb-09 RPM Karochemie<br />

Jan-09<br />

Arkema<br />

Compac Corp.'s Pressure Sensitive Adhesives Assets<br />

Organic Peroxide Business of GEO Specialty Chemicals<br />

Dec-08 Lubrizol Dow Chemicals' Thermoplastic Polyurethane (TPU) Business<br />

Dec-08<br />

Kermira<br />

Finncolor Slovakia<br />

Dec-08 Altana Clariant's Wax Additives Business<br />

Dec-08<br />

Pre-Pak Systems, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />

Nov-08 Ashland Hercules<br />

Nov-08<br />

Arsenal Capital Partners<br />

Celeste Contract Packaging<br />

Ferro's Fine Chemicals Business<br />

Nov-08 Akzo Nobel NV LORD Corporation's Photoglaze® Resilient Floor Coatings Business<br />

Nov-08<br />

Flint Group<br />

Russell-Webb<br />

Oct-08 Arch Chemicals Advantis Technologies<br />

Oct-08<br />

Yara International ASA<br />

Saskferco Products <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />

Sep-08 Colorcon Chr. Hansen Excipients Business<br />

Sep-08<br />

Sherwin-Williams<br />

Aug-08 Albemarle Sorbent Technologies<br />

Aug-08 3M Polyfoam Products<br />

Liquid Coatings Subsidiaries of <strong>Inc</strong>hem Holdings<br />

17


<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING 2010<br />

2007-2010 CHEMICAL INDUSTRY SELECTED<br />

TRANSACTIONS<br />

D<strong>AT</strong>E<br />

Aug-08<br />

Aug-08<br />

Jul-08<br />

Jul-08<br />

Jul-08<br />

Jun-08<br />

Jun-08<br />

Jun-08<br />

Apr-08<br />

Apr-08<br />

Mar-08<br />

Mar-08<br />

Mar-08<br />

Feb-08<br />

Feb-08<br />

Feb-08<br />

Feb-08<br />

Feb-08<br />

Jan-08<br />

Jan-08<br />

Jan-08<br />

Dec-07<br />

Nov-07<br />

Nov-07<br />

Aug-07<br />

Aug-07<br />

Aug-07<br />

Jul-07<br />

Jul-07<br />

Jul-07<br />

Jul-07<br />

Jun-07<br />

May-07<br />

Mar-07<br />

Mar-07<br />

Mar-07<br />

Jan-07<br />

ACQUIRER<br />

Sherwin-Williams<br />

Altana<br />

Elementis<br />

PPG Industries<br />

Berwind<br />

H.I.G. Capital, LLC<br />

Insight Equity<br />

Ashland<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />

SK Capital Partners<br />

Henkel KGaA<br />

PPG Industries<br />

Industrial Equity Investment Ltd.<br />

(Permira Funds)<br />

Tata Chemicals Ltd.<br />

Emerald Performance Materials<br />

LLC<br />

Mentor Partners of Boston/Adco<br />

Cleaning Products Valspar<br />

DuPont<br />

INEOS Group Holdings PLC<br />

Akzo Nobel NV<br />

PPG Industries<br />

Aurora Capital Group<br />

Basell NV<br />

3M<br />

Lubrizol<br />

Saudi Basic Industries Corp.<br />

(SABIC) Ceradyne<br />

RoundTable Heathcare Partners<br />

Akzo Nobel NV<br />

The Carlyle Group<br />

LG Chem Ltd.<br />

CVC Capital Partners<br />

Abraaj Capital<br />

National Titanium Dioxide Co.,<br />

Ltd.<br />

Becker Industrial Coatings<br />

Reliance Industries Ltd.<br />

Givaudan S.A.<br />

Court Square Capital<br />

TARGET<br />

Columbia Paint & Coatings<br />

United States Bronze Powders <strong>Inc</strong>. (USBP) Effect Pigment Business<br />

Deuchem Co.<br />

Vanex<br />

Specialty Coating Systems<br />

Croda's Oleochemicals Business<br />

Superior Silica Sands<br />

Air Products' Pressure-Sensitive Adhesive and Atmospheric Emulsions<br />

Businesses<br />

Aristech Acrylics<br />

National Starch & Chemical Adhesives & Electronic Materials<br />

NanoProducts Corp.<br />

Arysta LifeScience Corp (Olympus capital Holdings Asia)<br />

General Chemical Industrial Products, <strong>Inc</strong>. (Harbert Management Corp.)<br />

CVC Specialty Chemicals, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />

Chemical Products Division of Laidlaw<br />

Aries Coil Coatings SA de CV<br />

Chemtura's Fluorine Chemicals Business<br />

Kerling ASA (Norsk Hydro ASA)<br />

Imperial Chemical Industries plc<br />

SigmaKalon Group BV<br />

NuCO2 <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />

Lyondell Chemical Company<br />

RPM's Bondo Business<br />

Croda’s Refrigeration Lubricants Business<br />

GE Plastics<br />

Minco<br />

Vesta<br />

Chemcraft International<br />

PQ Corporation<br />

LG Petrochemical<br />

Taminco<br />

Egyptian Fertilizers Company<br />

Lyondell Chemical Company's Titanium Dioxide Unit<br />

Specialty Coatings<br />

Indian Petrochemicals Corporation Ltd.<br />

Quest International<br />

MacDermid <strong>Inc</strong>orporated<br />

18


<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING 2010<br />

GRACE M<strong>AT</strong><strong>THE</strong>WS SPECIALTY CHEMICAL PRACTICE:<br />

STRONG COMMITMENT TO <strong>CHEMICALS</strong><br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>’ chemical investment<br />

banking practice is global in scope and is<br />

well-known for its strong track record of<br />

successful chemical industry transactions<br />

dating back to the early 1990s. We have<br />

direct ties to chemical industry leaders<br />

worldwide, and have completed transactions<br />

with such companies as Akzo Nobel, 3M,<br />

DuPont, Sherwin-Williams, PPG Industries,<br />

Ashland, Ceradyne, DSM, ICI, Borregaard,<br />

Air Products, Landec Corporation, The<br />

Home Depot, Hexion Specialty Chemicals,<br />

Atofina Chemicals, Brush Engineered<br />

Materials, Becker Industrial Coatings, RPM<br />

International, Courtaulds, Domino Sugar,<br />

and Chr. Hansen Laboratories.<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>’ three main practice areas<br />

are: sell-side transactions (private<br />

companies, divestitures for large multinational<br />

corporations and private equity held<br />

businesses); buy-side projects (typically for<br />

major multi-nationals); and financing, where<br />

we raise debt and/or equity capital to<br />

support private equity sponsored<br />

management buy-outs or recapitalizations.<br />

CONTACT INFORM<strong>AT</strong>ION<br />

GRACE M<strong>AT</strong><strong>THE</strong>WS, INC.<br />

219 NORTH MILWAUKEE STREET<br />

7 TH FLOOR<br />

MILWAUKEE, WI 53202<br />

P: 414-278-1120<br />

F: 414-278-1119<br />

www.gracematthews.com<br />

info@gracematthews.com<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />

John Beagle Managing Director<br />

A founder of <strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, John leads the company’s chemical<br />

practice, providing strategic planning and direct transaction<br />

management. John has been the lead investment banker on over<br />

50 engagements in the chemical industry, representing major<br />

multinational corporations, private equity firms, and privately-held<br />

businesses. John earned a B.S. in Materials Science and<br />

Engineering and an M.B.A., both from Cornell University.<br />

Benjamin Scharff Director<br />

Ben has advised clients on mergers, acquisitions, and financings<br />

for more than 15 years. Ben’s practice areas include paints and<br />

coatings, construction products, and other specialty chemicals.<br />

Ben’s client base has included well-known chemical firms and<br />

private equity groups, as well as privately-held businesses. Ben<br />

graduated from University of Wisconsin – Madison with a degree in<br />

Business and Economics.<br />

Thomas C. Osborne Senior Executive, Coatings<br />

Tom joined <strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong> in 2008 and focuses on new business<br />

development and strategic planning. Previously, Tom had a<br />

distinguished career in the global chemical industry, serving as<br />

CEO of The Tnemec Company and ICI Paints North America/The<br />

Glidden Company, as well as in other senior management level<br />

positions.<br />

Andrew Hinz Vice President<br />

Andy joined <strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong> in 2007 and specializes in sell-side<br />

transactions, buyer searches, leveraged finance, and new business<br />

development. His transaction experience includes basic materials,<br />

direct mail/printing, industrial equipment and financial services.<br />

Previously, Andy was an Equity Research Analyst with Robert W.<br />

Baird & Co. Andy holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA)<br />

designation and received a B.B.A. from the University of Wisconsin<br />

– Eau Claire.<br />

Kevin Yttre Vice President<br />

Kevin joined <strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong> in 2008. A chemical engineer, Kevin<br />

held a number of engineering and management positions with ICI’s<br />

Uniqema specialty chemicals business in the U.S. and Europe<br />

before joining <strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>. Kevin holds an M.B.A. from the<br />

Harvard Business School and a B.S. degree with Highest<br />

Distinction, in Chemical Engineering from the University of<br />

Wisconsin – Madison.<br />

Trent Myers Vice President<br />

An employee of <strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong> since its inception, Trent has over<br />

20 years experience in mergers & acquisitions, leveraged finance,<br />

and quantitative analysis. Trent has been involved in over 100<br />

transactions involving chemicals, coatings and adhesives, and<br />

basic materials. Trent earned a B.A. from University of Georgia, an<br />

M.A. from the University of Virginia and an M.B.A. from the<br />

University of Wisconsin – Madison.<br />

Andrea Wolf Associate<br />

Andrea joined <strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong> in 2005, and focuses on sell-side<br />

engagements, buyer searches, leveraged finance, and new<br />

business development. Andrea has completed transactions in a<br />

number of industries including chemicals, food ingredients,<br />

construction products, and general manufacturing. Andrea holds a<br />

B.A. in Economics and Finance and an M.A. in Economics, both<br />

from the University of Wisconsin – Milwaukee.<br />

19


<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING 2010<br />

SELECT GRACE M<strong>AT</strong><strong>THE</strong>WS CHEMICAL TRANSACTIONS<br />

has sold its Resilient Floor<br />

Coatings Business to<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. advised<br />

LORD Corporation on this transaction<br />

has acquired a majority interest<br />

in<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. advised<br />

Vesta on this transaction<br />

Corporation<br />

has been acquired by<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. advised<br />

Raabe Corporation on this transaction<br />

has sold the assets of<br />

Lubrizol Performance<br />

Systems to<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. advised<br />

Lubrizol Corporation on this transaction<br />

has licensed exclusive fields of<br />

Intelimer technology from<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. advised<br />

Landec Corporation on this transaction<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />

has acquired<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. advised Northwest<br />

Coatings, LLC on this transaction<br />

has acquired<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. advised<br />

Akzo Nobel nv on this transaction<br />

has sold its<br />

specialty chemical subsidiary<br />

to<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. advised<br />

Landec Corporation on this transaction<br />

Facilitator Capital<br />

Fund<br />

has sold the stock of<br />

to<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. advised<br />

the shareholders of CERAC, <strong>Inc</strong>. on<br />

this transaction<br />

has been acquired by<br />

a subsidiary of<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. advised<br />

GSI General Materials, LLC on this<br />

transaction<br />

merged with<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. advised Columbia<br />

Paint & Coatings on this transaction<br />

has been recapitalized by<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. advised<br />

ColorMatrix Corporation on this<br />

transaction<br />

has acquired<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. advised<br />

Minco on this transaction<br />

has acquired the assets of<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. advised<br />

Pacific Epoxy Polymers, <strong>Inc</strong>. on this<br />

transaction<br />

has sold its U.S. fine chemicals<br />

subsidiary, Borregaard Synthesis,<br />

<strong>Inc</strong>., to<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. advised<br />

Borregaard on this transaction<br />

Beckers Industrial<br />

has acquired<br />

Coatings<br />

the stock of<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. advised Specialty<br />

Coatings Company on this transaction<br />

has acquired<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. advised<br />

NorthStar Chemicals, <strong>Inc</strong>. on this<br />

transaction<br />

has acquired<br />

The Flood<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, Company <strong>Inc</strong>. advised<br />

Akzo Nobel nv on this transaction<br />

has acquired certain assets of the<br />

Foam Latex operations, located in<br />

Calhoun, GA, of<br />

<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. advised<br />

Bostik Findley, <strong>Inc</strong>. on this transaction<br />

219 N. Milwaukee St.<br />

Milwaukee, WI 53202<br />

414.278.1120<br />

gracematthews.com<br />

20

Hooray! Your file is uploaded and ready to be published.

Saved successfully!

Ooh no, something went wrong!