CHEMICALS AT THE CROSSROADS: - Grace Matthews, Inc.
CHEMICALS AT THE CROSSROADS: - Grace Matthews, Inc.
CHEMICALS AT THE CROSSROADS: - Grace Matthews, Inc.
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<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong>:<br />
U.S. CHEMICAL INDUSTRY 2007 - 2010<br />
SPRING 2010<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. 219 N. Milwaukee Street Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53202 414.278.1120 gracematthews.com
<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING 2010<br />
GRACE M<strong>AT</strong><strong>THE</strong>WS CHEMICAL<br />
PRACTICE<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>’ chemical group provides merger,<br />
acquisition, and corporate finance advisory services<br />
across the spectrum of specialty chemicals.<br />
GRACEM<strong>AT</strong><strong>THE</strong>WS.COM<br />
JOHN BEAGLE MANAGING DIRECTOR<br />
JBEAGLE@GRACEM<strong>AT</strong><strong>THE</strong>WS.COM<br />
BENJAMIN SCHARFF DIRECTOR<br />
BSCHARFF@GRACEM<strong>AT</strong><strong>THE</strong>WS.COM<br />
THOMAS C. OSBORNE SENIOR EXECUTIVE, CO<strong>AT</strong>INGS<br />
TOSBORNE@GRACEM<strong>AT</strong><strong>THE</strong>WS.COM<br />
ANDREW HINZ VICE PRESIDENT<br />
AHINZ@GRACEM<strong>AT</strong><strong>THE</strong>WS.COM<br />
KEVIN YTTRE VICE PRESIDENT<br />
KYTTRE@GRACEM<strong>AT</strong><strong>THE</strong>WS.COM<br />
TRENT MYERS VICE PRESIDENT<br />
TMYERS@GRACEM<strong>AT</strong><strong>THE</strong>WS.COM<br />
ANDREA WOLF ASSOCI<strong>AT</strong>E<br />
AWOLF@GRACEM<strong>AT</strong><strong>THE</strong>WS.COM<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />
3M<br />
A. SCHULMAN INC.<br />
ACETO CORPOR<strong>AT</strong>ION<br />
AIR PRODUCTS & <strong>CHEMICALS</strong>, INC.<br />
AKZO NOBEL, N.V.<br />
ALBEMARLE CORPOR<strong>AT</strong>ION<br />
ALTANA AG<br />
ARCH <strong>CHEMICALS</strong>, INC.<br />
ARKEMA, INC.<br />
ASHLAND, INC.<br />
AVERY DENNISON CORPOR<strong>AT</strong>ION<br />
BASF CORPOR<strong>AT</strong>ION<br />
BECKER INDUSTRIAL CO<strong>AT</strong>INGS<br />
BENJAMIN MOORE & CO.<br />
BORREGAARD<br />
BRUSH ENGINEERED M<strong>AT</strong>ERIALS<br />
CERADYNE, INC.<br />
CHEMTURA CORPOR<strong>AT</strong>ION<br />
CHR. HANSEN A/S<br />
CLARIANT CORPOR<strong>AT</strong>ION<br />
CYTEC INDUSTRIES, INC.<br />
<strong>THE</strong> DOW CHEMICAL COMPANY<br />
DUPONT<br />
EASTMAN CHEMICAL COMPANY<br />
ECOLAB, INC.<br />
FERRO CORPOR<strong>AT</strong>ION<br />
FLINT GROUP<br />
H.B. FULLER CO.<br />
HENKEL<br />
HEXION SPECIALTY <strong>CHEMICALS</strong>, INC.<br />
HONEYWELL INTERN<strong>AT</strong>IONAL INC.<br />
HUNTSMAN CORPOR<strong>AT</strong>ION<br />
ILLINOIS TOOL WORKS, INC.<br />
INEOS GROUP LTD.<br />
INTERN<strong>AT</strong>IONAL FLAVORS & FRAGRANCES, INC.<br />
LANDEC CORPOR<strong>AT</strong>ION<br />
<strong>THE</strong> LUBRIZOL CORPOR<strong>AT</strong>ION<br />
LYONDELLBASELL INDUSTRIES<br />
MILLIKEN CHEMICAL<br />
OLIN CORPOR<strong>AT</strong>ION<br />
OM GROUP, INC.<br />
POLYONE<br />
PPG INDUSTRIES INC.<br />
PRAXAIR, INC.<br />
QUAKER CHEMICAL CORPOR<strong>AT</strong>ION<br />
QUEST SPECIALTY <strong>CHEMICALS</strong><br />
ROCKWOOD HOLDINGS, INC.<br />
RPM INTERN<strong>AT</strong>IONAL<br />
ROYAL DSM N.V.<br />
SENSIENT TECHNOLOGIES CORP.<br />
<strong>THE</strong> SHERWIN-WILLIAMS COMPANY<br />
SIGMA-ALDRICH CORPOR<strong>AT</strong>ION<br />
SPARTECH CORPOR<strong>AT</strong>ION<br />
<strong>THE</strong> VALSPAR CORPOR<strong>AT</strong>ION<br />
W.R. GRACE & CO.<br />
ZEP, INC.
<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING 2010<br />
CONTENTS<br />
KEY TAKEAWAYS 2<br />
<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong><br />
CAP AND TRADE<br />
AN INDUSTRY TRANSFORMED<br />
U.S. CHEMICAL INDUSTRY: A GRAPHICAL OVERVIEW 3<br />
<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> 4<br />
A PICTURE OF A CHANGING INDUSTRY 2007–2010<br />
CAP AND TRADE 10<br />
CHEMICAL INDUSTRY WINNERS AND LOSERS<br />
AN INDUSTRY TRANSFORMED 13<br />
<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> M&A 2007-2010<br />
2007-2010 CHEMICAL INDUSTRY SELECTED TRANSACTIONS 17<br />
GRACE M<strong>AT</strong><strong>THE</strong>WS SPECIALTY CHEMICAL PRACTICE 19<br />
STRONG COMMITMENT TO <strong>CHEMICALS</strong><br />
GRACE M<strong>AT</strong><strong>THE</strong>WS CHEMICAL TEAM<br />
CONTACT INFORM<strong>AT</strong>ION<br />
GRACE M<strong>AT</strong><strong>THE</strong>WS RECENT CHEMICAL TRANSACTIONS 20<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />
1
<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING 2010<br />
KEY TAKEAWAYS<br />
<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong>: A PICTURE OF A CHANGING INDUSTRY 2007-2010<br />
� In general, the chemical industry continued to perform well in the first three quarters of 2008,<br />
even as GDP began to decline. However, in the fourth quarter, orders and shipments collapsed<br />
as problems in the financial sector finally spilled over into the industrial economy.<br />
� Signs of recovery in the chemical industry began in early 2009, well ahead of the general<br />
economy.<br />
� Industrial output of U.S. chemicals is expected to grow 3.4% - 4.2% annually through 2012, but<br />
this level of growth may depend on the successful execution of fiscal and monetary policy by the<br />
federal government.<br />
� EPA activism also could create headwinds for the U.S. chemical industry, limiting its prospects<br />
for growth.<br />
CAP AND TRADE<br />
� The cap and trade bill now under consideration in congress will require companies to reduce<br />
greenhouse gas emissions and will have effects on U.S. manufacturing that are difficult to<br />
predict.<br />
� Chemical companies will be affected disproportionately; large firms may be mostly unaffected or<br />
even benefit. Smaller firms with less flexibility and scale will suffer.<br />
� Cap and trade probably will not reduce greenhouse gas emissions without greater international<br />
cooperation.<br />
� Cap and trade legislation is unlikely to pass in its current form due to growing skepticism about<br />
the underlying science and economics.<br />
AN INDUSTRY TRANSFORMED: <strong>CHEMICALS</strong> M&A 2007-2010<br />
� 2007-2008 was a period during which there were a number of multi-billion dollar, industry<br />
“transformational” deals. Few large deals occurred in 2009 due to the credit crunch and<br />
uncertainty surrounding the business and regulatory climate. Instead, buyers focused more on<br />
lower-risk transactions that enhanced existing strategic strengths.<br />
� The period leading up to the economic crisis of 2008-2009 was characterized by parity between<br />
private equity groups and strategic buyers in terms of M&A activity and valuation.<br />
� Strategic buyers, especially those with strong balance sheets, now have an advantage over<br />
private equity groups that still have limited (but improving) access to the credit markets.<br />
� 2010 is likely to be a good year for chemicals M&A due to rising valuations and pent-up<br />
demand.<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />
2
<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING 2010<br />
U.S. CHEMICAL INDUSTRY:<br />
A GRAPHICAL OVERVIEW<br />
REVENUES AND GDP<br />
U.S. Chemical Industry Revenues and GDP 2007 – 2009<br />
Chemical Revenues Index<br />
(Q1 2007 = 1)<br />
Chemical Industry Value of Shipments<br />
Millions of Dollars<br />
$63,000<br />
$61,000<br />
$59,000<br />
$57,000<br />
$55,000<br />
$53,000<br />
$51,000<br />
$49,000<br />
$47,000<br />
$45,000<br />
Source: U.S. Census Bureau<br />
Chemical Industry Production and Capacity Utilization<br />
Production Index (2002=100)<br />
1.40<br />
1.20<br />
1.00<br />
0.80<br />
0.60<br />
0.40<br />
0.20<br />
120<br />
115<br />
110<br />
105<br />
100<br />
95<br />
90<br />
-<br />
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and <strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>.<br />
Chemical industry revenues are represented by the indexed<br />
performance of 59 selected chemical companies.<br />
REVENUES<br />
GDP Percent Change<br />
(Right Axis)<br />
Capacity<br />
Utilization<br />
(right axis)<br />
Source: Federal Reserve Board<br />
Chemical Industry Revenues<br />
(Left Axis)<br />
Chemical<br />
Production<br />
(left axis)<br />
-2.0%<br />
-4.0%<br />
-6.0%<br />
-8.0%<br />
PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY TRENDS<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />
6.0%<br />
4.0%<br />
2.0%<br />
0.0%<br />
GDP Percent Change<br />
82%<br />
80%<br />
78%<br />
76%<br />
74%<br />
72%<br />
70%<br />
68%<br />
66%<br />
64%<br />
62%<br />
60%<br />
Capacity Utilization %<br />
Revenue<br />
GDP<br />
Chemical Railcar Loadings: March 2007 – November 2009<br />
40,000<br />
35,000<br />
30,000<br />
25,000<br />
20,000<br />
15,000<br />
10,000<br />
5,000<br />
-<br />
Trendline<br />
Source: American Association of Railroads<br />
Global Chemistry Production Outlook<br />
% Change From Prior Period<br />
RAILCAR LOADINGS<br />
PRODUCTION OUTLOOK<br />
15.0%<br />
10.0%<br />
5.0%<br />
0.0%<br />
-5.0%<br />
-10.0%<br />
-15.0%<br />
Source: American Chemistry Council<br />
INVENTORIES<br />
Trendline<br />
Ratio of Chemical Industry Inventories to Shipments:<br />
January 2007 – October 2009<br />
1.35<br />
1.30<br />
1.25<br />
1.20<br />
1.15<br />
1.10<br />
1.05<br />
1.00<br />
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics<br />
North America<br />
Latin America<br />
Western Europe<br />
Russia & Eastern Europe<br />
Africa & Middle East<br />
Asia - Pacific<br />
3
<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING 2010<br />
<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong>:<br />
A PICTURE OF A CHANGING INDUSTRY 2007-2010<br />
Integrated into the supply chain for the production of everything from automobiles to pharmaceuticals,<br />
chemical manufacturing is often viewed as a bellwether for the U.S. economy’s industrial output. As the<br />
chemical industry goes, so goes GDP. As a result, it comes as no surprise that the extraordinary events<br />
that have roiled the U.S. economy over the past two years have had a deep impact on the chemical<br />
industry. What is surprising is that although the recession began in December 2007 1 , it wasn’t apparent<br />
based on the performance of the chemicals industry until the fall of 2008, when the troubles in the<br />
financial sector finally spilled over into the industrial economy.<br />
Our analysis shows that<br />
North American chemical<br />
companies continued to<br />
report revenue growth until<br />
the third quarter of 2008,<br />
even as real GDP began to<br />
falter and then decline<br />
(Figure 1). For example,<br />
when year-over-year real<br />
GDP declined by 0.7% in<br />
the first quarter of 2008,<br />
chemical industry<br />
revenues grew by 4.6%.<br />
Second and third quarter<br />
growth was also strong,<br />
coming in at 4.6% and<br />
3.5% respectively. Some<br />
Figure 1: U.S. Chemical Industry Revenues and GDP 2007 – 2009<br />
Chemical Revenues Index<br />
(Q1 2007 = 1)<br />
1.40<br />
1.20<br />
1.00<br />
0.80<br />
0.60<br />
0.40<br />
0.20<br />
-<br />
GDP Percent Change<br />
(Right Axis)<br />
Chemical Industry Revenues<br />
(Left Axis)<br />
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and <strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>. Chemical industry revenues are<br />
represented by the indexed performance of 59 selected chemical companies.<br />
of this growth can be attributed to chemical producers raising prices in response to higher energy costs,<br />
but unit volumes also were increasing during this period. Weekly railcar loadings of chemicals – the<br />
closest proxy we have to a real-time indicator of the health of the chemical industry – showed a steady<br />
uptrend during this period, with volumes rising nearly 4% between March 2007 and September 2008. 2<br />
(Figure 2). But there were warning signals that things were about to change. Fundamentals were<br />
deteriorating in the first half of 2008. Margins were being squeezed, especially for manufacturers of<br />
commodity petrochemicals that were challenged by rising energy and feedstock costs during what in<br />
retrospect was the third financial bubble of the decade: a period when the price of crude oil more than<br />
doubled in less than 18 months to a record level of over $147 per barrel. 3 Production and capacity<br />
utilization were declining, partly due to increased energy costs and partly due to weakening demand in<br />
end markets – notably housing and construction, but also in other consumer durables markets such as<br />
automobiles and electronics (Figure 3).<br />
1 The National Bureau of Economic Research, a group of private economists charged with dating business cycles, announced in<br />
December 2008 that business activity had peaked in December 2007, marking the beginning of the recession.<br />
2 Chemical railcar loadings are published weekly by the Association of American Railroads, and measure the number of freight<br />
cars loaded with chemical products in the previous week. Though it does not measure tonnage, it is still a useful and timely<br />
measure of unit volume trends. The American Chemistry Council reports that railroad shipments account for about 23% of chemical<br />
transportation tonnage and 20% of chemical transportation costs.<br />
3 The first two bubbles were, of course, technology stocks during 1997 - 2000 and real estate between 2003 and 2007. Financial<br />
bubbles may be recognizable only in retrospect, and it may be too early to say whether oil prices in 2007-2008 were a classic<br />
bubble. But the evidence speaks for itself. The rapid increase between January 2007 and July 2008 was hardly justified by global<br />
industrial production, supply constraints, or any other macro variable that affects the price of oil. Also, as steep as the increase in<br />
crude oil prices was, the fall was even steeper: on December 21, 2008, oil was trading at $33.87 per barrel, less than ¼ of the<br />
$147.27 record reached a little over four months earlier on July 11 th .<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />
6.0%<br />
4.0%<br />
2.0%<br />
0.0%<br />
-2.0%<br />
-4.0%<br />
-6.0%<br />
-8.0%<br />
GDP Percent Change<br />
Revenue<br />
GDP<br />
4
<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING 2010<br />
And then came the 4 th quarter of 2008, which effectively began in mid-September with the bankruptcy of<br />
Lehman Brothers and the $85 billion bailout of AIG by the Federal Reserve. These two events seemed to<br />
expose all the excesses in the financial markets that had been building for years. The financial system<br />
came very close to a “systemic” collapse, nearly dragging the entire global economy with it. Although the<br />
economy had already been in recession for almost a year, economists then were seriously debating<br />
whether a repeat of the Great Depression was at hand.<br />
To avoid a worst case<br />
scenario, the Federal Reserve<br />
cut interest rates nearly to<br />
zero and injected trillions of<br />
Figure 2: Chemical Railcar Loadings: March 2007 – December 2008<br />
40,000<br />
Trendline<br />
35,000<br />
dollars into the economy to<br />
boost liquidity, while Congress<br />
30,000<br />
passed first the Troubled<br />
25,000<br />
Asset Relief Program 20,000<br />
(“TARP”) and then a massive 15,000<br />
$787 billion stimulus plan<br />
initiated by the new Obama<br />
10,000<br />
administration. The credit 5,000<br />
markets were effectively<br />
frozen as banks, no longer<br />
sure how to value certain<br />
-<br />
financial assets on their Source: American Association of Railroads<br />
balance sheets, refused to<br />
make new loans as they hoarded cash as a reserve against future write-downs they believed were<br />
inevitable. In short, banks’ earnings became irrelevant as liquidity became the only meaningful metric.<br />
Figure 3: Chemical Industry Production and Capacity Utilization<br />
Production Index (2002=100)<br />
120<br />
115<br />
110<br />
105<br />
100<br />
95<br />
90<br />
Capacity<br />
Utilization<br />
(right axis)<br />
Source: Federal Reserve Board<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />
# of Railcars<br />
The ripple effects of the turmoil in the financial markets on chemical manufacturing, as with just about<br />
every other industry, were dramatic and immediate. In the fourth quarter of 2008, demand for chemicals<br />
collapsed along with consumer spending, and inventory levels rose as companies could not cut<br />
production fast enough. (Figure 4).<br />
Chemical<br />
Production<br />
(left axis)<br />
82%<br />
80%<br />
78%<br />
76%<br />
74%<br />
72%<br />
70%<br />
68%<br />
66%<br />
64%<br />
62%<br />
60%<br />
Capacity Utilization %<br />
In late 2008 and early 2009, BASF,<br />
Dow Chemical, PPG, Ineos,<br />
Eastman, 3M, Praxair, Huntsman<br />
and others announced plant<br />
closures, layoffs or other<br />
restructuring initiatives. For some,<br />
that wasn’t enough: LyondellBasell,<br />
Chemtura, and Tronox had to seek<br />
Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.<br />
Pending M&A transactions were<br />
delayed due to difficulties in<br />
obtaining financing or the<br />
deteriorating financial performance<br />
of the target companies. And some<br />
high-profile deals, like Hexion’s<br />
agreement to acquire Huntsman,<br />
5
<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING 2010<br />
were cancelled outright, and<br />
the uncertainty surrounding<br />
Dow’s acquisition of Rohm &<br />
Haas remained up until the<br />
day of closing.<br />
In the first few months of<br />
2009, there was a relentless<br />
1.25<br />
parade of bad news, but the<br />
1.20<br />
seeds of recovery had been<br />
planted. The stock market<br />
1.15<br />
turned around in early March<br />
1.10<br />
of 2009; the credit markets 1.05<br />
began to thaw, and by<br />
summer, GDP was growing<br />
again. Using the chemical<br />
1.00<br />
industry as a bellwether for<br />
the larger economy, incipient<br />
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics<br />
signs of recovery were<br />
beginning to take hold as early as January 2009. Weekly chemical railcar loadings, which plunged in the<br />
last four months of 2008, stabilized in January and stayed within a relatively tight range of 24,000 to<br />
27,000 carloads per week until mid-summer, when a discernable uptrend began to take hold (Figure 5).<br />
Industrial production of chemical products and capacity utilization also began to make a strong comeback<br />
beginning in January. Throughout the year, a weakening U.S. dollar supported exports, and the chemical<br />
industry was able to take advantage of relatively strong demand in emerging markets such as China,<br />
where many major producers had built new plants in previous years. In the fourth quarter of 2009, BASF,<br />
Dow, RPM, A. Schulman, and PPG all reported improvements in profits as a result of cost-cutting, even<br />
though revenues continued to be weak.<br />
For 2010, absent any unforeseen shocks to the financial system or a relapse into a double-dip recession,<br />
we can expect continued improvements in profitability as the benefits of cost-cutting and restructuring<br />
undertaken in 2009 impact the bottom line. Revenues also should begin a gradual recovery as the<br />
economic expansion spreads and deepens in all sectors of the economy. According to the American<br />
Figure 5: Chemical Railcar Loadings: March 2007 – November 2009<br />
Chemistry Council, global<br />
chemical industry output is<br />
40,000<br />
projected to increase 4.6% in<br />
35,000<br />
Trendline<br />
2010, offsetting a decline of<br />
30,000<br />
Trendline<br />
that percentage in 2009,<br />
although this improvement<br />
25,000<br />
does not return production to<br />
20,000<br />
previous levels. Growth in the<br />
15,000<br />
developed economies – North<br />
America and Europe – will not<br />
10,000<br />
be as strong as in Asia and<br />
5,000<br />
other developing regions. The<br />
-<br />
ACC projects growth of 3.4% in<br />
the U.S. and 2.7% in Western<br />
Europe for the chemical<br />
Source: American Association of Railroads<br />
industry. The real growth will<br />
be in the emerging markets,<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />
Figure 4: Ratio of Chemical Industry Inventories to Shipments:<br />
January 2007 – October 2009<br />
1.35<br />
1.30<br />
6
<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING 2010<br />
with chemical production in<br />
the Asia-Pacific region<br />
growing at 6.9% and Latin<br />
America at 4.8%. China,<br />
supported by the<br />
government’s heavy<br />
investments in the materials<br />
industries, is expected to<br />
grow by more than 11%<br />
(Figure 6).<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />
Figure 6: Global Chemistry Production Outlook<br />
% Change From Prior Period<br />
% Change From Prior Period<br />
15.0%<br />
10.0%<br />
5.0%<br />
0.0%<br />
-5.0%<br />
-10.0%<br />
-15.0%<br />
North America<br />
Latin America<br />
Western Europe<br />
Russia & Eastern Europe<br />
Africa & Middle East<br />
Asia - Pacific<br />
Looking beyond 2010, the<br />
prospects for the U.S.<br />
chemical industry are less<br />
clear, and the growth<br />
scenario described above<br />
depends very much on the<br />
ultimate success of the<br />
government’s recent fiscal<br />
and monetary policy. It may<br />
be true that the extraordinary<br />
and unprecedented efforts of<br />
Chemistry Production Outlook: Selected Countries<br />
25.0%<br />
20.0%<br />
15.0%<br />
10.0%<br />
5.0%<br />
0.0%<br />
-5.0%<br />
-10.0%<br />
United States<br />
Brazil<br />
Germany<br />
China<br />
India<br />
the federal government<br />
-15.0%<br />
during late 2008 and early<br />
2009 stabilized the financial<br />
-20.0%<br />
markets and set the stage<br />
for recovery. But it may be<br />
Source: American Chemistry Council<br />
too early to tell whether this will “work” in the long-run, because whatever the short-term effects, the<br />
ultimate economic costs of the government’s actions are still undetermined. The expansion of the money<br />
supply and the federal debt over the past 16 months are the largest ever in peacetime, and to think these<br />
expansions will not have unintended, and perhaps difficult to control, side effects may be extraordinarily<br />
naïve. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has been glib about the Fed’s loose monetary policy,<br />
merely saying that, at the appropriate time, the central bank will act quickly to withdraw excess liquidity to<br />
ward off any incipient inflation.<br />
As for the fiscal stimulus, ramping up government spending to stimulate the economy historically has<br />
come too late in the cycle to do any good, and ends up mostly just ratcheting up the national debt and<br />
increasing the pressure for new taxation. 4 Also, the effects of the fiscal stimulus may prove to be fleeting.<br />
Spending on infrastructure and other “hard asset” projects may benefit chemical manufacturing in the<br />
short-term, but lasting, long-term growth will depend on the health of consumer markets. If consumer<br />
demand remains weak because of a lingering debt burden, chemicals -- specialties in particular -- could<br />
become mired in a low-growth scenario for years. The “Cash for Clunkers” program may offer a preview<br />
of this dynamic: vehicle sales rose dramatically during the summer of 2009 when the program was in<br />
effect, but fell off quickly once the program was discontinued in August. 5<br />
4 Of the six fiscal stimulus packages passed in response to the six recessions between 1948 and 1982, all were enacted after the<br />
recovery already had begun. See “If it Ain’t Broke, Don’t Fix It”, Bruce Bartlett, Wall Street Journal, Dec. 2, 1992. That the chemical<br />
industry began to recover as early as January 2009 suggests that this recession and recovery may be following a familiar pattern.<br />
5 As further evidence that the effects of government stimulus may be temporary, consider that in November 2009, housing sales<br />
fell by 16% as home buyers anticipated the expiration of the homebuyer’s tax credit. The tax credit has since been extended to April<br />
2010.<br />
7
<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING 2010<br />
Added together, the after-effects of the federal government’s recession-fighting policies of 2008-2009<br />
could mean higher inflation, persistently high unemployment, and anemic real economic growth. In short,<br />
we could be headed for a return to the stagflation economy of the 70s.<br />
It doesn’t take too much imagination to think how this might affect a still weakened industry. If you paid<br />
attention only to the stock market, you might think a “V” shaped recovery was underway, but the<br />
fundamental data doesn’t support this view. Though chemical industry shipments stabilized in 2009<br />
(Figure 7), it’s like a “reset” button was pressed: growth is slow and fragile from a lower baseline, and it<br />
will be a long time before industry shipments return to the peak level attained in the summer of 2008.<br />
Other signs of fragility: a downtrend in industry employment, on-going for many years, accelerated during<br />
the downturn and shows no signs of recovery. With all the plant closings and tightened credit conditions,<br />
business investment is down and capacity for many basic chemicals is shifting overseas.<br />
Figure 7: Chemical Industry Value of Shipments<br />
$63,000<br />
There are other industry-specific risks<br />
that will affect chemical manufacturers<br />
over the next few years.<br />
$61,000<br />
Manufacturers are beginning to brace<br />
$59,000<br />
for a less business-friendly regulatory<br />
$57,000<br />
environment. With the new<br />
$55,000<br />
Democratic administration, an<br />
$53,000<br />
emphasis on going “green” is going to<br />
$51,000<br />
become more pronounced as the<br />
$49,000<br />
focus shifts in 2010 from healthcare<br />
$47,000<br />
and financial reform to environmental<br />
$45,000<br />
and energy policy. Though the shift to<br />
a greener economy will offer<br />
opportunities for chemical<br />
Source: U.S. Census Bureau<br />
manufacturers in the long-term, the<br />
transition is not likely to be without<br />
pain. Cap and trade, the subject of the following article, if passed would disproportionately cut into the<br />
profitability of the U.S. chemical industry and put it at a competitive disadvantage relative to foreign<br />
competitors who don’t have the same constraints.<br />
Millions of Dollars<br />
The EPA has already adopted a more activist posture, having determined last April that six greenhouse<br />
gases pose a threat to human health and should be regulated under the Clean Air Act. A likely outcome<br />
is that energy-intensive industries, such as chemicals and steel, would have higher operating costs if<br />
carbon dioxide is regulated and would then have an additional motivation to move production overseas.<br />
Also on the EPA’s agenda is the reform of the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA). Proposals under<br />
consideration include fees on chemical manufacturers to help pay for safety assessments of commercial<br />
compounds and easing limitations on the agency’s ability to place restrictions on or ban chemicals that<br />
are not considered safe.<br />
Further, the Obama administration appears to be the most union-friendly administration since FDR.<br />
President Obama and a number of other Democratic congressional leaders support the Employee Free<br />
Choice Act (EFCA), now under consideration in Congress. If passed, the Act will amend the National<br />
Labor Relations Act to allow “card check”, a method that would enable employees to organize a union by<br />
getting a simple majority of employees to sign authorization forms, or “cards”, stating they wish to be<br />
represented by a union. It would make unions easier to organize by by-passing the typical process of<br />
having employees vote to unionize through secret ballots. As pointed out by its many critics, eliminating<br />
the secret ballot opens the way for coercive tactics on the part of labor organizers and strips away an<br />
employee’s right to privacy in deciding whether to support union representation. If passed, the Act will<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />
8
<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING 2010<br />
inevitably raise labor costs for smaller manufacturers and put them at a relative disadvantage to foreign<br />
competitors who have access to non-unionized labor.<br />
If we have focused on some of the more difficult challenges facing the chemical industry, we want to<br />
emphasize that these issues affect the short-term outlook the most, and that growth resulting from<br />
innovation, the real driver of long-term change in the chemical industry, is difficult to predict and even<br />
harder to quantify. Ten years from now, the U.S. chemical industry is likely to look considerably different<br />
than it does today. Where practical, production of basic petrochemicals and inorganics probably will have<br />
shifted overseas. U.S.-based operations will largely consist of specialty manufacturers who have been<br />
able to adapt to the changed economics of the 21 st century. The trend for some specialty chemicals to<br />
become commodities will have continued, with manufacturers that have focused of developing brands<br />
supported by low-cost manufacturing, efficient distribution, and excellent customer service likely to be<br />
survivors. But there will be newer “specialties” coming online that will represent a new, high-tech image<br />
for the industry. Nanotechnology, energy storage, and bio-polymers are just three examples of areas that<br />
are ripe for innovation and commercialization. Just as digital computers may have been the cutting-edge<br />
industry in the 20 th century, material science -- in particular chemical material science -- may be the<br />
cutting-edge industry in the 21 st.<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />
9
<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING SPRING 2010 2010<br />
CAP AND TRADE: CHEMICAL INDUSTRY WINNERS AND LOSERS<br />
Over the past year a carbon dioxide (CO2) cap and trade program, known as the Waxman-Markey bill, has been<br />
making its way through the United States Congress. The purported goal of the controversial bill is to address global<br />
warming and encourage the development of new, clean energy technologies. Controversial from the beginning, the<br />
bill has measures that could impose costly restrictions on energy-intensive industries, ultimately reducing their<br />
international competitiveness, lowering profitability, and likely eliminating jobs. Support from Democratic politicians<br />
and environmentalists, particularly after the Democrats won control of Congress and the White House in 2008, had<br />
outweighed the opposition from the Republican Party and other interested parties. However, recent developments<br />
surrounding the rigor of data collection and analysis supporting claims of climate change (including the possibility of<br />
deliberate misrepresentations and the suppression of contravening evidence) have raised questions about the<br />
likelihood of passage.<br />
The key provisions of the bill, if ratified, will limit, or “cap”<br />
CO2 emissions in the U.S. The cap is set to decline over<br />
time, forcing carbon emissions to fall to 83% of 2005 levels<br />
by 2020 and eventually to 17% of 2005 levels by 2050.<br />
Regulated entities, such as companies in carbon-intensive<br />
industries (e.g., electric power utilities; steel, chemical and<br />
other heavy manufacturers) would be required to hold<br />
allowances that permit them to emit CO2, with each<br />
allowance worth one metric ton of CO2. Initially, all major<br />
emitters of CO2 would receive allowances sufficient to cover<br />
their current level of emissions. After this initial distribution,<br />
a market for trading allowances would develop, providing<br />
allowance holders the ability to sell their unused allowances<br />
to other companies. In practice, as the annual cap is<br />
reduced and the total number of allowances in circulation<br />
declines, companies would be forced to either reduce<br />
emissions or purchase additional allowances on the open<br />
market. In theory, it would be a relatively straight-forward<br />
economic decision: a company will choose whichever<br />
option is less expensive at the time. But as in any free<br />
market, as the supply of allowances decreases over time,<br />
their prices will rise, and choosing emissions abatement will<br />
increasingly become the more attractive option.<br />
The plan appears as if it would work mechanically, but it is<br />
clear that cap and trade will raise the price of energy and<br />
energy-related goods to American consumers; the question of “how much” has been the subject of much<br />
controversy 6 . What has not received as much attention is just how much cap and trade is going to harm U.S.<br />
industry’s competitive position against foreign companies that do not operate under such restrictions, especially in<br />
emerging economies such as India and China. Steel, paper and chemicals, all of which are carbon-intensive and<br />
face tight competition in the global marketplace, would be especially affected.<br />
6 Based on an analysis of a discussion draft of the bill, the Environmental Protection Agency estimates that cap and trade would cost the<br />
average household between $98 and $140 per year. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill would be relatively deficit neutral<br />
for the federal government, with an average cost to households of about 0.2% of annual income. Other groups have disputed these estimates:<br />
the Competitive Enterprise Institute believes the bill would be essentially the “largest tax hike in history”, and the American Petroleum Institute<br />
estimates that the bill would raise the price of gasoline and other fuels to the equivalent of $4.00 a gallon by today’s standards.<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />
10
<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING SPRING 2010<br />
2010<br />
One of the largest sources of CO2 emissions in the U.S., accounting for about 5% of the total, is the chemical<br />
industry. The effects of limiting CO2 emissions and carbon trading on the industry are likely to be complex, and to<br />
the extent that some companies may be able to pass their increased costs on to consumers, they may benefit from<br />
the program. <strong>Inc</strong>reased costs at the end-user level also will raise demand for energy-saving products such as a<br />
hybrid vehicles, solar panels, and energy-efficient appliances. Manufacturers that provide materials used in energysaving<br />
products (e.g., silicon used to manufacture solar panels) may experience sales growth from increased<br />
product demand. DuPont, for example, expects its sales of renewable materials that displace fossil fuels to double<br />
to $8 billion by 2015 7 .<br />
But the fact remains that, over time, the cap will be reduced, and an allowance to emit CO2 will become increasingly<br />
expensive, disproportionately affecting chemical manufacturers. For large chemical players, the effects of cap and<br />
trade on overall company profitability may be minimal. These companies can access new carbon abatement<br />
technologies and other alternative energy programs, and spread their cost over a large revenue and asset base. In<br />
general, they also have greater flexibility than smaller companies in addressing the issue: some are installing<br />
projects that will lower both their energy costs and CO2 emissions, potentially allowing them to generate revenue by<br />
selling their unused allowances. Dow Chemical, for example, uses methane from a landfill to power a plant in<br />
Dalton, GA, where it makes carpet backing. Further, from an unpleasant realpolitik perspective, large firms, through<br />
political connections and lobbyist efforts, have an advantage over their smaller competitors in shaping the details of<br />
the legislation.<br />
Additionally, large chemical players can roll out abatement technologies and new energy-saving programs over a<br />
large pool of operating plants. They can shift production to their more efficient facilities, and as more emissionabatement<br />
programs are employed throughout their companies, implementation costs will decrease. They can also<br />
transfer production overseas, where many already have established operations in regions that don’t regulate CO2<br />
emissions, such as Asia or the Middle East.<br />
On the other hand, small chemical firms likely will face a different set of challenges. These firms may have limited<br />
access to capital and/or carbon abatement technologies. They may not be able to shift production to more efficient<br />
plants or overseas, leaving them no choice but to purchase additional allowances or install abatement technologies.<br />
The effects may be especially harmful to small companies that are growing – and creating jobs. With their CO2<br />
emissions capped and with the cap declining every year, incremental revenues from growth will be accompanied by<br />
escalating costs, such that requiring them to pay to emit more CO2 would act as a disincentive, slowing or even<br />
curtailing their growth. It will create a “Wizard of Oz” - like situation for mid-sized U.S. based manufacturers:<br />
“Surrender Dorothy” is writ large on the horizon. Passage of Waxman-Markey will likely drive a number of viable,<br />
privately-held U.S. chemical manufacturers toward selling to major multinationals.<br />
If the Waxman-Markey bill is ratified, large chemical manufacturers will ultimately be in a position to benefit at the<br />
expense of smaller manufacturers – indeed, that may be one reason why some large companies have come out in<br />
support of the bill. Whether the bill will actually mitigate global warming is open to question, especially since any<br />
meaningful reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions will require significant cooperation at an international<br />
level.<br />
This being the case, the issue may really come down to whether it is good industrial policy for the United States to<br />
penalize smaller manufacturers – especially those using energy intensive processes -- for their success, especially<br />
since small companies have historically created most of the new jobs in our economy. The bill may be wellintentioned,<br />
but unless it has some reasonable chance to achieve its goals, why does it make sense if its only real<br />
effect would be to hurt U.S. manufacturing and ship jobs overseas?<br />
Throughout much of 2009, the chances for passage of the bill appeared high. The bill was passed in the House of<br />
Representatives over the summer of 2009 and sent on to the Senate. The bill faces a tougher environment there,<br />
7 The Wall Street Journal, “Chemical Makers Poised to Gain in New Cap-and-Trade System”, June 2009.<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />
11
<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING 2010<br />
especially given the Republican party’s nearly unanimous opposition and the loss of the Democrat’s filibuster-proof<br />
supermajority with the election of Republican Scott Brown to the vacant Massachusetts Senate seat. Further, there<br />
is a growing suspicion among the electorate that “cap and trade” is much more about favorable economics for those<br />
who cap and those who trade, instead of making a true impact on limiting climate change. Finally, climate change<br />
skeptics are now being taken seriously in both scientific and media circles, which hopefully will lead to better<br />
science and more intelligent legislation.<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />
12
<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING 2010<br />
AN INDUSTRY TRANSFORMED:<br />
<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> M&A 2007-2010<br />
For most of the first decade of the century, chemicals had all the characteristics that make for a robust M&A market:<br />
the emergence of multi-national players with an appetite for growth, the prospect for enhanced profitability through<br />
synergies and economies of scale, the easy availability of debt financing and private equity capital, and especially a<br />
pipeline of attractive assets – with valuations rising, shareholders of privately-held firms with strong cash flows and<br />
defensible market niches were more than willing to bring assets to market. Established chemical strategic firms,<br />
understanding that the surest way to grow faster than the economy was through acquisitions, transformed<br />
themselves into multi-nationals with diverse product portfolios that extended into a number of end-use markets.<br />
The apex for chemicals M&A was 2007, when<br />
transactions totaling more than $55 billion in<br />
value were completed, 31% higher than the<br />
previous record year of 2006 with $42 billion 1 .<br />
The numbers were skewed somewhat by a<br />
number of “transformational” mega-deals, that<br />
is, large transactions that represented a<br />
fundamental make-over of a well-known<br />
company and by implication altered the shape<br />
of the entire industry. In 2007, Basell merged<br />
with Lyondell in a deal valued at $19.2 billion<br />
and Sabic purchased General Electric’s<br />
plastics business for $11.6 billion. Other<br />
industry-shaping transactions that were<br />
announced in 2007, but not completed until early 2008, included Akzo Nobel’s acquisition of ICI for $16.6 billion and<br />
PPG’s purchase of SigmaKalon Group for $3.2 billion.<br />
2007 also may have been the high-water mark for private equity’s investment in the industry. Since 2003, private<br />
equity firms had been raising significant amounts of new capital, and with easy credit availability, were under<br />
pressure to put those funds to work (Figure 2). Private equity played a big role in the steady upward trend in<br />
chemical transaction multiples during this period, and to many investment bankers working in the chemicals area, it<br />
appeared that private equity buyers basically had parity with strategics when it came to competing for high-quality<br />
assets. Because private equity funds had access to easy credit and were investing in market segments that were<br />
consolidating, many became quasi-strategic firms<br />
Figure 2: Private Equity Capital Raises 2003 – 2008 themselves, as they first acquired a platform company<br />
and then followed up with additional strategic bolt-on<br />
$700.0<br />
acquisitions.<br />
Yearly Total in Billions of Dollars<br />
$600.0<br />
$500.0<br />
$400.0<br />
$300.0<br />
$200.0<br />
$100.0<br />
$0.0<br />
Source: Thompson Financial<br />
1 Estimated by Young & Partners, New York, counting transactions with a value greater than $25 million.<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />
Buyouts/Corporate<br />
Finance<br />
Venture Capital<br />
Mezzanine<br />
Other Private Equity<br />
Fund of Funds<br />
Figure 1: “Transformational” Deals 2007-2009<br />
Buyer Target Closed Value<br />
Basell Lyondell 2007 $19.2 Billion<br />
Dow<br />
Chemical<br />
Rohm & Haas 2008 $18.8 Billion<br />
Akzo Nobel ICI 2008 $16.6 Billion<br />
Sabic GE Plastics 2007 $11.8 Billion<br />
Henkel<br />
Adhesives and<br />
Electronics Materials<br />
Business of National<br />
Starch & Chemicals<br />
2009 $5.4 Billion<br />
Ashland Hercules 2009 $3.1 Billion<br />
The credit crunch that began in the summer of 2007<br />
seemed initially to affect only the larger transactions,<br />
particularly those that were highly leveraged. Hexion’s<br />
aborted acquisition of Huntsman is a case in point. At<br />
the height of the M&A boom in June 2007, Hexion,<br />
owned by private equity giant Apollo Management,<br />
outbid Basell to announce that it would acquire<br />
Huntsman for $10.4 billion. But as the credit crisis and<br />
the economic downturn deepened, Huntsman’s<br />
13
<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING SPRING 2010<br />
2010<br />
performance deteriorated. First Apollo and Hexion, and then their banks, tried to back out of the deal, claiming that<br />
Huntsman’s level of debt would render the combined companies insolvent. Huntsman went to court, and eventually<br />
settled with Apollo, Hexion and the banks for a combined $2.7 billion.<br />
Smaller transactions continued to close through the fourth quarter of 2007 and the first three quarters of 2008.<br />
Strategics often could fund deals with cash, stock, or a combination of the two, and private equity buyers could be<br />
more creative with transaction structures and financing arrangements. But as 2008 progressed, deal volume<br />
slowed as banks continued to tighten lending standards as the sub-prime crisis began to spill over into other sectors<br />
of the credit markets.<br />
Figure 3: Enterprise Value/Revenues 2007 – 2009<br />
After the collapse of Lehman Brothers in<br />
September, the financial markets entered into a<br />
period of near chaos that lasted through the<br />
end of the year. Most potential buyers and<br />
sellers could not justify entering the M&A<br />
market at this time. With the economy in the<br />
midst of the worst recession since World War II,<br />
revenue and earnings visibility was nonexistent,<br />
making it nearly impossible for<br />
potential buyers to get an accurate read on a<br />
company’s future cash flows. Valuation<br />
became a matter of guess work, with neither<br />
public company values nor private transactions<br />
having much to offer in the way of guidance.<br />
Public company multiples, after declining in late<br />
2008, actually began to increase after the first<br />
quarter of 2009, but this was due to a combination of depressed revenues and earnings and increasing market<br />
capitalizations after the stock market turned around in early March. But most investors recognized these “improved”<br />
valuations for what they were: statistical outliers that are typical at the end of a recession or the beginning of a<br />
recovery (Figure 3). Many would-be sellers of quality chemical firms, aware that private market values remained<br />
down, realized that there was just too much risk involved in putting their companies on the market. Under the<br />
circumstances, it was easier to just do nothing, preserve cash, and wait for the markets to stabilize and a<br />
sustainable recovery to begin.<br />
Some strategic transactions continued to move forward, but there were many roadblocks on the way to closing.<br />
The experience of Dow Chemical was symptomatic of many companies trying to do deals during this period.<br />
Determined to remake itself into a less-cyclical, more-specialties focused company, Dow in July 2008 announced it<br />
would acquire Rohm & Haas for $18.8 billion. Late in 2008, a planned JV with Kuwait’s Petrochemical Industries<br />
Company fell through. Dow, which had been counting on receiving $9 billion from the JV that would be used to<br />
support the Rohm & Haas deal, found itself without the financing it needed to complete the transaction. Dow and<br />
Rohm & Haas both made their case in court, and after a three month delay, the deal did close in April 2009.<br />
Both the economy and the financial markets stabilized in the first quarter of 2009, and deal flow gradually began to<br />
recover. Though overall deal activity for 2009 was down even from the depressed levels of 2008, there are signs<br />
that conditions are improving. Banks, though still cautious, are lending again, and cash-rich companies have begun<br />
making acquisitions where they can find a good value and a solid strategic rationale. Restructuring efforts have<br />
also begun to pay off, with some companies under leveraged or flush with cash that could be used to support<br />
acquisitions.<br />
We believe that 2010 is going to be a surprisingly good year for chemicals M&A. There has been nearly two years<br />
of depressed activity during which a number of high-quality companies have been withheld from the market.<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />
1.6<br />
1.4<br />
1.2<br />
1<br />
0.8<br />
0.6<br />
0.4<br />
0.2<br />
0<br />
Source: <strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>’ analysis of 59 selected publicly traded chemical<br />
companies<br />
14
<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING 2010<br />
Multiples may come back sooner than many have expected, and as soon as a few deals close at good valuations, a<br />
lot of good companies are going to come to market.<br />
Those in the best position to move forward<br />
are the well-capitalized strategic buyers<br />
(Figure 4). Simply put, companies with low<br />
debt, excess cash balances, and strong<br />
operating cash flows can “afford” the risk of<br />
making acquisitions, whereas competitors<br />
with weaker balance sheets cannot. And if<br />
they have a history of successful growth<br />
through acquisitions, now may be a great<br />
time for these companies to seek out highquality<br />
targets. As an example, coatings<br />
companies like Akzo Nobel, PPG Industries,<br />
RPM, Valspar, and Sherwin-Williams,<br />
among others, have managed to emerge<br />
from the recession with relatively strong<br />
balance sheets and have a core<br />
competency in strategic M&A. Many of<br />
these companies can pursue opportunities<br />
without the need to seek outside financing<br />
or, if they choose to do so, can receive<br />
favorable terms based on the strength of<br />
their balance sheets.<br />
A recent pick-up in M&A activity suggests<br />
that large, billion-dollar strategic deals may<br />
be ready for a comeback. An example is Air<br />
Products’ recent efforts to acquire Airgas.<br />
In September 2009, Air Products offered an<br />
all stock deal to Airgas, and when that was<br />
rejected, offered a combination of stock and<br />
cash that was also rejected as<br />
“undervalued” by Airgas’s board. In early<br />
February 2010, Air Products came back<br />
with an all cash proposal of $60 per share, representing a 40% premium over the price Airgas’s stock was trading at<br />
before the offer. Air Products had already received a commitment for debt financing from J.P. Morgan. Although<br />
there are solid strategic reasons for merging the companies, Airgas’s board still believed the offer “grossly<br />
undervalued” Airgas, and rejected the proposal. At the time of this writing, Air Products is going hostile with their<br />
bid.<br />
Without the driver of potential synergizes, private equity firms face a more challenging landscape, but given that<br />
they have a lot of capital and chemicals are an attractive area to invest, they are likely to compete for high-quality<br />
assets. Dow Chemical, for example, has put its $5.0 billion/year styrenics and aromatics business on the block, and<br />
a number of private equity group have shown interest, including Apollo, Bain Capital, TPG Capital, and Rhone<br />
Capital. Credit conditions are improving, and banks are likely to loosen restrictions even more as the economy<br />
improves. Until that time, private equity groups will compete by being more creative with deal structures. One<br />
approach is to “over-equitize” a transaction, where the private equity group initially invests more equity in a deal and<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />
Figure 4: Financial Strength of Selected Chemical Manufacturers<br />
Net Debt*<br />
/ EBITDA<br />
Enterprise<br />
Values /<br />
Revenues<br />
(ttm)<br />
Enterprise<br />
Value /<br />
EBITDA<br />
(ttm)<br />
3M 0.4 2.6 9.8<br />
Akzo Nobel N.V. 1.0 0.9 7.2<br />
Air Products & Chemicals, <strong>Inc</strong>. 2.0 2.6 10.5<br />
Albemarle Corporation 1.6 1.2 12.8<br />
Ashland <strong>Inc</strong>. 1.6 0.5 5.6<br />
BASF Corporation 1.5 0.9 5.9<br />
The Dow Chemical Company 5.2 1.2 16.1<br />
Cytec Industries, <strong>Inc</strong>. 2.3 0.9 9.7<br />
DSM N.V. 1.6 0.9 8.4<br />
DuPont 2.3 1.4 10.8<br />
Eastman Chemical Company 1.3 1.0 7.9<br />
H.B. Fuller Co. 0.7 0.9 7.6<br />
The Lubrizol Corporation 0.6 1.4 7.0<br />
Olin Corporation NA** 0.8 5.2<br />
PPG Industries, <strong>Inc</strong>. 1.9 1.0 9.1<br />
RPM International 1.4 0.9 7.7<br />
The Sherwin-Williams Company 0.7 1.1 8.8<br />
Sensient Technologies Corp. 2.2 1.5 8.8<br />
The Valspar Corporation 1.7 1.2 8.4<br />
W.R. <strong>Grace</strong> & Co. 0.4 0.6 5.9<br />
Median 1.6 1.0 8.4<br />
Mean 1.6 1.2 8.7<br />
*Net Debt = Funded debt minus cash and cash equivalents.<br />
**Cash balances exceeds debt<br />
15
<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING 2010<br />
seeks debt financing later. Other alternatives include using earn-outs, seller notes, and “in-house” debt as<br />
substitutes for traditional bank financing.<br />
One issue that private equity investors will have to face in the next few years is their exit strategy for portfolio<br />
companies acquired in the pre-recession period when valuations were at a peak. If a portfolio company was<br />
purchased at a cyclical peak for a high multiple, a private equity seller would do well to consider a customized<br />
approach to selling the business. A traditional process that results in bids that are all below an acceptable threshold<br />
can be a disaster: the company may have to be pulled off the market and its future value could be significantly<br />
impaired. A better course may be a targeted, yet still competitive, process, where the potential buyers would be<br />
limited to those that have an exceptional strategic or synergistic fit with the portfolio company. In these cases,<br />
extensive up-front work is necessary to identify and quantify the fit with the strategic buyer in order for the seller to<br />
share in the value of the merger.<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />
16
<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING 2010<br />
2007-2010 CHEMICAL INDUSTRY SELECTED<br />
TRANSACTIONS<br />
D<strong>AT</strong>E ACQUIRER TARGET<br />
Feb-10 Sherwin-Williams Industrial Coatings Business of Arch Chemicals<br />
Jan-10 Arkema<br />
Dow Chemical’s Acrylic Acid & Esthers Business / Specialty Latex<br />
Business<br />
Jan-10 Zep<br />
Amrep<br />
Nov-09 Ellipse Capital Ward Adhesives<br />
Nov-09<br />
Oct-09<br />
Oct-09<br />
Dow Corning<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />
American Securities Capital<br />
Partners<br />
Milliken Chemical<br />
Globe Specialty Materials US and Brazilian Silicon Metal Manufacturing<br />
Assets<br />
GenTek<br />
Rebus<br />
Aug-09 GenNx360 Capital Partners Clariant Corporation’s Specialty Silicones Business (SiVance, LLC)<br />
Aug-09<br />
Honeywell<br />
RMG Group<br />
Jul-09 Altana Water Ink Technologies<br />
Jul-09<br />
Praxair<br />
Sermatech International<br />
Jun-09 Sun Chemical Handschy Industries<br />
Jun-09<br />
DSM<br />
Biopract<br />
Jun-09 LANXESS Gwalior Chemical Industries<br />
May-09<br />
Clariant<br />
XL Performance Chemicals<br />
Apr-09 H.B. Fuller Nordic Adhesives<br />
Apr-09<br />
Dow Chemical Company<br />
Rohm & Haas<br />
Apr-09 Bayer AG Polyurethane Systems House of Neochimiki<br />
Apr-09<br />
Sherwin-Williams<br />
Altax<br />
Apr-09 Clearview Capital Troy Industries<br />
Apr-09<br />
Rhodia<br />
McIntyre Group<br />
Apr-09 Akzo Nobel NV Kronochem's Wood Adhesives Business<br />
Feb-09<br />
Venture Tape Corp (3M)<br />
Feb-09 RPM Karochemie<br />
Jan-09<br />
Arkema<br />
Compac Corp.'s Pressure Sensitive Adhesives Assets<br />
Organic Peroxide Business of GEO Specialty Chemicals<br />
Dec-08 Lubrizol Dow Chemicals' Thermoplastic Polyurethane (TPU) Business<br />
Dec-08<br />
Kermira<br />
Finncolor Slovakia<br />
Dec-08 Altana Clariant's Wax Additives Business<br />
Dec-08<br />
Pre-Pak Systems, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />
Nov-08 Ashland Hercules<br />
Nov-08<br />
Arsenal Capital Partners<br />
Celeste Contract Packaging<br />
Ferro's Fine Chemicals Business<br />
Nov-08 Akzo Nobel NV LORD Corporation's Photoglaze® Resilient Floor Coatings Business<br />
Nov-08<br />
Flint Group<br />
Russell-Webb<br />
Oct-08 Arch Chemicals Advantis Technologies<br />
Oct-08<br />
Yara International ASA<br />
Saskferco Products <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />
Sep-08 Colorcon Chr. Hansen Excipients Business<br />
Sep-08<br />
Sherwin-Williams<br />
Aug-08 Albemarle Sorbent Technologies<br />
Aug-08 3M Polyfoam Products<br />
Liquid Coatings Subsidiaries of <strong>Inc</strong>hem Holdings<br />
17
<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING 2010<br />
2007-2010 CHEMICAL INDUSTRY SELECTED<br />
TRANSACTIONS<br />
D<strong>AT</strong>E<br />
Aug-08<br />
Aug-08<br />
Jul-08<br />
Jul-08<br />
Jul-08<br />
Jun-08<br />
Jun-08<br />
Jun-08<br />
Apr-08<br />
Apr-08<br />
Mar-08<br />
Mar-08<br />
Mar-08<br />
Feb-08<br />
Feb-08<br />
Feb-08<br />
Feb-08<br />
Feb-08<br />
Jan-08<br />
Jan-08<br />
Jan-08<br />
Dec-07<br />
Nov-07<br />
Nov-07<br />
Aug-07<br />
Aug-07<br />
Aug-07<br />
Jul-07<br />
Jul-07<br />
Jul-07<br />
Jul-07<br />
Jun-07<br />
May-07<br />
Mar-07<br />
Mar-07<br />
Mar-07<br />
Jan-07<br />
ACQUIRER<br />
Sherwin-Williams<br />
Altana<br />
Elementis<br />
PPG Industries<br />
Berwind<br />
H.I.G. Capital, LLC<br />
Insight Equity<br />
Ashland<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />
SK Capital Partners<br />
Henkel KGaA<br />
PPG Industries<br />
Industrial Equity Investment Ltd.<br />
(Permira Funds)<br />
Tata Chemicals Ltd.<br />
Emerald Performance Materials<br />
LLC<br />
Mentor Partners of Boston/Adco<br />
Cleaning Products Valspar<br />
DuPont<br />
INEOS Group Holdings PLC<br />
Akzo Nobel NV<br />
PPG Industries<br />
Aurora Capital Group<br />
Basell NV<br />
3M<br />
Lubrizol<br />
Saudi Basic Industries Corp.<br />
(SABIC) Ceradyne<br />
RoundTable Heathcare Partners<br />
Akzo Nobel NV<br />
The Carlyle Group<br />
LG Chem Ltd.<br />
CVC Capital Partners<br />
Abraaj Capital<br />
National Titanium Dioxide Co.,<br />
Ltd.<br />
Becker Industrial Coatings<br />
Reliance Industries Ltd.<br />
Givaudan S.A.<br />
Court Square Capital<br />
TARGET<br />
Columbia Paint & Coatings<br />
United States Bronze Powders <strong>Inc</strong>. (USBP) Effect Pigment Business<br />
Deuchem Co.<br />
Vanex<br />
Specialty Coating Systems<br />
Croda's Oleochemicals Business<br />
Superior Silica Sands<br />
Air Products' Pressure-Sensitive Adhesive and Atmospheric Emulsions<br />
Businesses<br />
Aristech Acrylics<br />
National Starch & Chemical Adhesives & Electronic Materials<br />
NanoProducts Corp.<br />
Arysta LifeScience Corp (Olympus capital Holdings Asia)<br />
General Chemical Industrial Products, <strong>Inc</strong>. (Harbert Management Corp.)<br />
CVC Specialty Chemicals, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />
Chemical Products Division of Laidlaw<br />
Aries Coil Coatings SA de CV<br />
Chemtura's Fluorine Chemicals Business<br />
Kerling ASA (Norsk Hydro ASA)<br />
Imperial Chemical Industries plc<br />
SigmaKalon Group BV<br />
NuCO2 <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />
Lyondell Chemical Company<br />
RPM's Bondo Business<br />
Croda’s Refrigeration Lubricants Business<br />
GE Plastics<br />
Minco<br />
Vesta<br />
Chemcraft International<br />
PQ Corporation<br />
LG Petrochemical<br />
Taminco<br />
Egyptian Fertilizers Company<br />
Lyondell Chemical Company's Titanium Dioxide Unit<br />
Specialty Coatings<br />
Indian Petrochemicals Corporation Ltd.<br />
Quest International<br />
MacDermid <strong>Inc</strong>orporated<br />
18
<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING 2010<br />
GRACE M<strong>AT</strong><strong>THE</strong>WS SPECIALTY CHEMICAL PRACTICE:<br />
STRONG COMMITMENT TO <strong>CHEMICALS</strong><br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>’ chemical investment<br />
banking practice is global in scope and is<br />
well-known for its strong track record of<br />
successful chemical industry transactions<br />
dating back to the early 1990s. We have<br />
direct ties to chemical industry leaders<br />
worldwide, and have completed transactions<br />
with such companies as Akzo Nobel, 3M,<br />
DuPont, Sherwin-Williams, PPG Industries,<br />
Ashland, Ceradyne, DSM, ICI, Borregaard,<br />
Air Products, Landec Corporation, The<br />
Home Depot, Hexion Specialty Chemicals,<br />
Atofina Chemicals, Brush Engineered<br />
Materials, Becker Industrial Coatings, RPM<br />
International, Courtaulds, Domino Sugar,<br />
and Chr. Hansen Laboratories.<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>’ three main practice areas<br />
are: sell-side transactions (private<br />
companies, divestitures for large multinational<br />
corporations and private equity held<br />
businesses); buy-side projects (typically for<br />
major multi-nationals); and financing, where<br />
we raise debt and/or equity capital to<br />
support private equity sponsored<br />
management buy-outs or recapitalizations.<br />
CONTACT INFORM<strong>AT</strong>ION<br />
GRACE M<strong>AT</strong><strong>THE</strong>WS, INC.<br />
219 NORTH MILWAUKEE STREET<br />
7 TH FLOOR<br />
MILWAUKEE, WI 53202<br />
P: 414-278-1120<br />
F: 414-278-1119<br />
www.gracematthews.com<br />
info@gracematthews.com<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />
John Beagle Managing Director<br />
A founder of <strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, John leads the company’s chemical<br />
practice, providing strategic planning and direct transaction<br />
management. John has been the lead investment banker on over<br />
50 engagements in the chemical industry, representing major<br />
multinational corporations, private equity firms, and privately-held<br />
businesses. John earned a B.S. in Materials Science and<br />
Engineering and an M.B.A., both from Cornell University.<br />
Benjamin Scharff Director<br />
Ben has advised clients on mergers, acquisitions, and financings<br />
for more than 15 years. Ben’s practice areas include paints and<br />
coatings, construction products, and other specialty chemicals.<br />
Ben’s client base has included well-known chemical firms and<br />
private equity groups, as well as privately-held businesses. Ben<br />
graduated from University of Wisconsin – Madison with a degree in<br />
Business and Economics.<br />
Thomas C. Osborne Senior Executive, Coatings<br />
Tom joined <strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong> in 2008 and focuses on new business<br />
development and strategic planning. Previously, Tom had a<br />
distinguished career in the global chemical industry, serving as<br />
CEO of The Tnemec Company and ICI Paints North America/The<br />
Glidden Company, as well as in other senior management level<br />
positions.<br />
Andrew Hinz Vice President<br />
Andy joined <strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong> in 2007 and specializes in sell-side<br />
transactions, buyer searches, leveraged finance, and new business<br />
development. His transaction experience includes basic materials,<br />
direct mail/printing, industrial equipment and financial services.<br />
Previously, Andy was an Equity Research Analyst with Robert W.<br />
Baird & Co. Andy holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA)<br />
designation and received a B.B.A. from the University of Wisconsin<br />
– Eau Claire.<br />
Kevin Yttre Vice President<br />
Kevin joined <strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong> in 2008. A chemical engineer, Kevin<br />
held a number of engineering and management positions with ICI’s<br />
Uniqema specialty chemicals business in the U.S. and Europe<br />
before joining <strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>. Kevin holds an M.B.A. from the<br />
Harvard Business School and a B.S. degree with Highest<br />
Distinction, in Chemical Engineering from the University of<br />
Wisconsin – Madison.<br />
Trent Myers Vice President<br />
An employee of <strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong> since its inception, Trent has over<br />
20 years experience in mergers & acquisitions, leveraged finance,<br />
and quantitative analysis. Trent has been involved in over 100<br />
transactions involving chemicals, coatings and adhesives, and<br />
basic materials. Trent earned a B.A. from University of Georgia, an<br />
M.A. from the University of Virginia and an M.B.A. from the<br />
University of Wisconsin – Madison.<br />
Andrea Wolf Associate<br />
Andrea joined <strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong> in 2005, and focuses on sell-side<br />
engagements, buyer searches, leveraged finance, and new<br />
business development. Andrea has completed transactions in a<br />
number of industries including chemicals, food ingredients,<br />
construction products, and general manufacturing. Andrea holds a<br />
B.A. in Economics and Finance and an M.A. in Economics, both<br />
from the University of Wisconsin – Milwaukee.<br />
19
<strong>CHEMICALS</strong> <strong>AT</strong> <strong>THE</strong> <strong>CROSSROADS</strong> SPRING 2010<br />
SELECT GRACE M<strong>AT</strong><strong>THE</strong>WS CHEMICAL TRANSACTIONS<br />
has sold its Resilient Floor<br />
Coatings Business to<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. advised<br />
LORD Corporation on this transaction<br />
has acquired a majority interest<br />
in<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. advised<br />
Vesta on this transaction<br />
Corporation<br />
has been acquired by<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. advised<br />
Raabe Corporation on this transaction<br />
has sold the assets of<br />
Lubrizol Performance<br />
Systems to<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. advised<br />
Lubrizol Corporation on this transaction<br />
has licensed exclusive fields of<br />
Intelimer technology from<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. advised<br />
Landec Corporation on this transaction<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>.<br />
has acquired<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. advised Northwest<br />
Coatings, LLC on this transaction<br />
has acquired<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. advised<br />
Akzo Nobel nv on this transaction<br />
has sold its<br />
specialty chemical subsidiary<br />
to<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. advised<br />
Landec Corporation on this transaction<br />
Facilitator Capital<br />
Fund<br />
has sold the stock of<br />
to<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. advised<br />
the shareholders of CERAC, <strong>Inc</strong>. on<br />
this transaction<br />
has been acquired by<br />
a subsidiary of<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. advised<br />
GSI General Materials, LLC on this<br />
transaction<br />
merged with<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. advised Columbia<br />
Paint & Coatings on this transaction<br />
has been recapitalized by<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. advised<br />
ColorMatrix Corporation on this<br />
transaction<br />
has acquired<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. advised<br />
Minco on this transaction<br />
has acquired the assets of<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. advised<br />
Pacific Epoxy Polymers, <strong>Inc</strong>. on this<br />
transaction<br />
has sold its U.S. fine chemicals<br />
subsidiary, Borregaard Synthesis,<br />
<strong>Inc</strong>., to<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. advised<br />
Borregaard on this transaction<br />
Beckers Industrial<br />
has acquired<br />
Coatings<br />
the stock of<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. advised Specialty<br />
Coatings Company on this transaction<br />
has acquired<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. advised<br />
NorthStar Chemicals, <strong>Inc</strong>. on this<br />
transaction<br />
has acquired<br />
The Flood<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, Company <strong>Inc</strong>. advised<br />
Akzo Nobel nv on this transaction<br />
has acquired certain assets of the<br />
Foam Latex operations, located in<br />
Calhoun, GA, of<br />
<strong>Grace</strong> <strong>Matthews</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. advised<br />
Bostik Findley, <strong>Inc</strong>. on this transaction<br />
219 N. Milwaukee St.<br />
Milwaukee, WI 53202<br />
414.278.1120<br />
gracematthews.com<br />
20