Company Report: Sinotrans Shipping (00368 HK) - 国泰君安

Sector Report: Electricity Sector Leo Wu 吴逸超 

行业报告:电力行业 

+86 755 23976871 

wuyichao@gtjas.com 

29 December 2011 

Dark Spread to Recover Slightly, But Still Vulnerable to Coal 

Price, “Neutral” 

点火价差预期略有改善,但仍易受煤价侵蚀,“中性” 

� Our sensitivity analysis for the FY12 EPS with respect to on-grid tariff change 

and coal price change shows that the profitability of CRP is most stable 

among its peers, followed by CPI. The profitability of Huaneng, Datang and 

Huadian are highly sensitive to tariff and coal price change. 

� We assume RMB25/MWh increase for the whole sector in the average 

thermal on-grid tariff (VAT inclusive) in FY12, while the increase 

magnitude for FY13 is assumed to be RMB20/MWh. We expect the unit 

fuel cost for the IPPs will keep increasing, mainly because 1) the contract 

coal supply percentage will shrink year by year and 2) the spot coal price is 

not likely to fall sharply like 4Q2008 since the coal industry has been more 

consolidated nowadays compared with that in 2008. In general, we expect 

the dark spread for all IPPs will recover in FY12 compared with that in 

FY11, but not likely to keep increasing significantly in FY13. 

� Maintain “Neutral” rating for Electricity Sector. Among the five IPPs we 

cover in Hong Kong market, we maintain “Accumulate” rating for CRP 

(00836 HK) and CPI (02380 HK) and “Neutral” rating for Huaneng (00902 

HK), Datang (00991 HK) and Huadian (01071 HK). 

� 我们关于上网电价变动以及煤价变动对 2012 年 EPS 的敏感性分析显示,华润电力的盈 

利能力在同业中最为稳定,其次是中国电力。华能国际、大唐发电以及华电国际的盈利能 

力对电价及煤价的变动高度敏感。 

� 我们对全行业都假设 2012 年的平均火电上网电价(含税)涨幅为 25 元/兆瓦时,对 2013 

年的涨幅假设为 20 元/兆瓦时。我们预期独立发电企业的单位燃料成本会继续上升,主要 

由于 1)合同煤供应比重将逐年降低,以及 2)煤炭现货价格不太可能像 2008 年四季度 

那样大幅下跌,由于当前的煤炭行业相比 2008 年整合度已经大幅提高。总体而言,我们 

预期全体独立发电企业的点火价差在 2012 年均会同比改善,但在 2013 年不太可能继续 

显著提高。 

� 维持电力行业的评级为“中性”。在香港上市的五家独立发电企业中,我们维持对华润电力 

(00836 HK)以及中国电力(02380 HK)的“收集”评级,并且维持华能国际(00902 

HK)、大唐发电(00991 HK)和华电国际(01071 HK)的“中性”评级。 

Company Name 

公司名称 

Ticker 

编号 

Price 

股价 

(HK$) 

Target Price 

目标价 

(HK$) 

Rating 

投资评级 

FY11 PER 

市盈率 

(x) 

Rating: Neutral 

Maintained 

评级: 中性 (维持) 

Weighted Average Performance of China 

IPPs in Last 52 Weeks 

过去 52 周中资电力股加权平均表现 

See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 34 

% 20 

10 

0 

-10 

-20 

-30 

Dec-10 

Jan-11 

Feb-11 

Source: Bloomberg, 

FY12 PER 

市盈率 

(x) 

Mar-11 

Apr-11 

FY13 PER 

市盈率 

(x) 

May-11 

Jun-11 

Jul-11 

Aug-11 

China IPPs HSI 

FY11 P/B 

市净率 

(x) 

Sep-11 

Oct-11 

Nov-11 

Dec-11 

FY11 Net gearing 

净债务比例 

(%) 

China Resources Power 00836 HK 14.68 16.90 Accumulate 15.4 10.4 7.8 1.5 162.6 

Huaneng Power Intl 00902 HK 4.16 4.32 Neutral 22.5 10.5 8.1 0.9 151.5 

Datang Intl Power 00991 HK 2.50 2.76 Neutral 19.7 9.8 6.4 0.7 392.0 

Huadian Power Intl 01071 HK 1.50 1.54 Neutral n.a. 9.6 6.0 0.4 529.4 

China Power Intl 02380 HK 1.85 2.66 Accumulate 12.3 7.6 5.7 0.6 314.6 

Weighted Average. 

市值加权平均 

Neutral 17.4 10.1 7.4 1.1 230.7 

Source: Guotai Junan International, Bloomberg. 

GTJA Research 国泰君安研究 

Electricity Sector 电力行业 

Sector Report

Our sensitivity analysis for the FY12 EPS with respect to on-grid tariff change and coal price change shows that the 

profitability of CRP is most stable among its peers, followed by CPI. The profitability of Huaneng, Datang and Huadian 

are highly sensitive to tariff and coal price change. Our sensitivity analysis shows that Huadian is the most sensitive IPP to 

key factors change. Every 10RMB/t change in average 2012 QHD 5,500 Kcal spot price will result in 56.8% change in its EPS, 

and every 10RMB/MWh change in average FY12 on-grid tariff (VAT inclusive) will result in 144.8% change in its EPS. For CRP, 

the same changes in both key factors will only change the EPS by 5.8% and 15.3%. For CPI, the changes of EPS are also 

only 8.9% and 25.1%. Details of sensitivity analysis are shown below: 

Table: Earning Sensitivity to Key Factors for Chinese IPPs 

CRP Huaneng Datang Huadian CPI 

EPS change to key factors 00836 HK 00902 HK 00991 HK 01071 HK 02380 HK 

Current FY12 EPS Estimates 1.409 0.318 0.203 0.124 0.196 

Avg QHD 5,500 Kcal Spot Price up 10RMB/t 1.328 0.261 0.171 0.054 0.178 

- EPS change (0.081) (0.057) (0.032) (0.071) (0.018) 

- % of change -5.8% -18.1% -15.9% -56.8% -8.9% 

Avg Tariff (VAT Incl.) up RMB10/MWh 1.624 0.464 0.304 0.305 0.245 

- EPS change 0.215 0.146 0.101 0.180 0.049 

- % of change 15.3% 45.9% 49.9% 144.8% 25.1% 

Avg Effective Borrowing Rate up 25bps 1.382 0.300 0.179 0.095 0.184 

- EPS change (0.028) (0.018) (0.024) (0.030) (0.012) 

- % of change 

Source: Guotai Junan International. 

-2.0% -5.6% -11.8% -23.9% -6.0% 

Table: 2012 Scenario Analysis of Chinese IPPs 


00836 HK 00902 HK 00991 HK 01071 HK 02380 HK 

FY12 EPS Estimates 

Neutral Scenario 

(Avg QHD 5,500 = RMB840/t, No change to Avg tariffs) 

1.409 0.318 0.203 0.124 0.196 

Optimistic Scenario 

(Avg QHD 5,500 down RMB20/t, Avg tariffs up RMB10/MWh) 

1.787 0.579 0.369 0.446 0.280 

- % of EPS change 26.8% 82.0% 81.7% 258.3% 43.0% 

Pessimistic Scenario 

(Avg QHD 5,500 up RMB20/t, Avg tariffs down RMB10/MWh) 

1.032 0.057 0.037 (0.197) 0.111 

- % of EPS change 


-26.8% -82.0% -81.7% -258.3% -43.0% 





In general, the profitability of coal-fired capacity is still weaker and more uncertain than that of wind capacity and 

hydro capacity. From this idea, CPI should be the IPP with most stable profitability due to its high percentage of hydro 

capacity among all of its consolidated capacity. In fact, our sensitivity analysis shows that CRP is the one with most stable 

profitability, mainly because the profit contribution from its coal sales business and wind farm business. Although Huaneng and 

Datang also have other business to support their profitability (Tuas for Huaneng, coal-to-chemical business for Datang), their 

domestic coal-fired power generating business are still dominating, therefore the diversification effects for Huaneng and 

Datang are not obvious. 

Table: Peer Comparison of Operating Consolidated Capacity by type by the end of FY11 

(MW) 00836 HK 00902 HK 00991 HK 01071 HK 02380 HK 

Type CRP Huaneng Datang Huadian CPI 

Coal 20,720 56,543 32,610 28,234 7,660 

Gas 150 4,343 0 0 0 

Oil 0 1,200 0 0 0 

Wind 1,223 488 1,463 989 0 

Hydro 210 13 4,838 1,108 3,626 

Pumped-Storage 0 0 0 0 1,200 

Solar 0 0 10 10 0 

Biomass 

Source: Guotai Junan International 

0 0 0 25 0 

Figure: Capacity Breakdown by Type of Chinese IPPs Figure: Capacity Breakdown in Percentage 

70,000 

60,000 

50,000 

40,000 

30,000 

20,000 

10,000 

0 

MW 

Coal Gas Oil Wind Hydro Pumped-Storage 


Source: Guotai Junan International Source: Guotai Junan International 


100% 

90% 

80% 

70% 

60% 

50% 

40% 

30% 

20% 

10% 

0% 

Coal Gas Oil Wind Hydro Pumped-Storage 





We assume RMB25/MWh increase for the whole sector in the average thermal on-grid tariff (VAT inclusive) in FY12, 

while the increase magnitude for FY13 is assumed to be RMB20/MWh. We have to admit that any forecast about the 

on-grid tariff change is of high uncertainty since the decision procedure of the NDRC is unclear. The basic idea behind these 

assumptions is that the dark spreads of each IPP will recover in FY12 compared with those in FY11 and will remain relatively 

stable in FY13 compared with those in FY12. The reason for this idea is that we don’t think NDRC will try to raise the 

profitability of the coal-fired power generating industry intentionally, but still will make sure that they can continue to survive, 

just like what they did in 2011, raising tariffs twice when the coal-fired power generating industry are in trouble. 

We expect the unit fuel cost for the IPPs will keep increasing, mainly because 1) the contract coal supply percentage 

will shrink year by year and 2) the spot coal price is not likely to fall sharply like 4Q2008 since the coal industry has 

been more consolidated nowadays compared with that in 2008. 

In general, we expect the dark spread for all IPPs will recover in FY12 compared with that in FY11, but not likely to 

keep increasing significantly in FY13. 

Table: On-grid Tariff (VAT excl.) Comparison 

(RMB/MWh) 

2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 

CRP 354.2 359.0 373.5 394.9 412.0 

Huaneng 356.6 360.4 370.6 389.5 406.5 

Datang 314.8 318.6 337.4 358.7 375.8 

Huadian 341.9 350.4 365.8 387.2 404.3 

CPI 


315.0 313.8 342.5 363.1 377.5 

Table: Unit Fuel Cost of Power Sold Comparison 

(RMB/MWh) 

2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 

CRP 208.1 252.7 279.0 290.2 307.0 

Huaneng 215.7 247.5 273.8 283.5 299.7 

Datang 174.8 200.8 229.2 239.3 260.2 

Huadian 211.6 256.1 271.2 286.1 306.7 

CPI 


213.8 235.7 259.7 277.6 295.4 

Figure: On-Grid Tariff (VAT excl.) Comparison Figure: Unit Fuel Cost of Power Sold Comparison 

RMB/MWh CRP Huaneng Datang Huadian CPI 

450.0 

400.0 

350.0 

300.0 

250.0 

200.0 

150.0 

100.0 

50.0 

0.0 

2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 




450.0 

400.0 

350.0 

300.0 

250.0 

200.0 

150.0 

100.0 

50.0 

0.0 

2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 




Table: Dark Spread Comparison 

(RMB/MWh) 

2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 

CRP 146.1 106.3 94.5 104.7 105.0 

Huaneng 140.9 112.9 96.8 105.9 106.9 

Datang 140.0 117.7 108.2 119.4 115.7 

Huadian 130.3 94.3 94.6 101.1 97.6 

CPI 102.9 92.5 89.9 93.4 92.7 


We expect the utilisation hour of coal-fired capacity will increase further in FY12-13, mainly because the slowdown of 

investment for coal-fired capacity in the last recent years. 

Table: Coal-fired Capacity Utilisation Hour Comparison 

(RMB/MWh) 

2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 

CRP 5,771 5,882 6,176 6,361 6,552 

Huaneng 5,220 5,564 5,842 6,017 6,198 

Datang 5,255 5,332 5,599 5,767 5,940 

Huadian 4,954 5,539 5,650 5,819 5,994 

CPI 


5,073 5,329 5,809 5,983 6,162 

Figure: Dark Spread Comparison Figure: Coal-fired Capacity Utilisation Hour Comparison 


160.0 

140.0 

120.0 

100.0 

80.0 

60.0 

40.0 

20.0 

0.0 

2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 



hr 

7,000 

6,000 

5,000 

4,000 

3,000 

2,000 

1,000 

0 


2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 




In terms of net profit margin and ROE, our comparison shows that CRP has been and is expected to continue to be 

the top among its peers. We think the main reasons for this include: 1) higher utilisation hour of its coal-fired capacity, which 

reduces its unit fixed cost of power sold; 2) lower financial leveraging and good borrowing rates control; 3) business 

diversification into coal mining; 4) reasonable returns from wind farm business. 

Table: Net Profit Comparison 

(RMB Mn) 3-Yr 

2008A 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F CAGR 

Net Profit 

CRP 1,717 5,317 4,904 4,529 6,720 9,037 22.6% 

Huaneng (3,938) 4,930 3,348 2,077 4,473 5,758 19.8% 

Datang 749 1,537 2,570 1,307 2,703 4,139 17.2% 

Huadian (2,560) 1,157 170 (32) 843 1,352 99.6% 

CPI 

Net Margin 

(689) 519 667 612 999 1,316 25.4% 

CRP 16.0% 10.1% 7.2% 8.1% 8.6% 

Huaneng 6.4% 3.2% 1.5% 2.9% 3.3% 

Datang 3.2% 4.2% 1.9% 3.4% 4.2% 

Huadian 3.2% 0.4% -0.1% 1.2% 1.6% 

CPI 4.7% 4.6% 3.6% 4.8% 5.3% 

Source: Guotai Junan International. (*)Report Currency for CRP is HKD. 

Figure: Net Profit Comparison Figure: Net Profit Margin Comparison 

RMB Mn CRP Huaneng Datang Huadian CPI 

10,000 

8,000 

6,000 

4,000 

2,000 

0 

(2,000) 

(4,000) 

(6,000) 

2008A 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 


18.0% 

16.0% 

14.0% 

12.0% 

10.0% 

8.0% 

6.0% 

4.0% 

2.0% 

0.0% 

-2.0% 


Table: ROE Comparison 

CRP Huaneng Datang 

Huadian CPI 

2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 

2008A 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 

ROE 

CRP 6.6% 16.4% 12.3% 10.3% 13.6% 16.0% 

Huaneng -9.4% 12.5% 7.0% 3.9% 8.2% 9.9% 

Datang 2.7% 5.9% 9.0% 3.8% 6.9% 9.9% 

Huadian -19.9% 8.4% 1.1% -0.2% 4.5% 6.9% 

CPI -7.3% 5.1% 5.4% 4.9% 7.5% 9.3% 





Figure: ROE Comparison 

20.0% 

15.0% 

10.0% 

5.0% 

0.0% 

-5.0% 

-10.0% 

-15.0% 

-20.0% 

-25.0% 

2008A 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 


Table: Net Gearing Comparison 


Huadian CPI 

2008A 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 

Net Gearing 

CRP 118.3% 133.6% 161.5% 162.6% 159.7% 147.8% 

Huaneng 173.2% 191.3% 131.2% 151.5% 150.5% 163.7% 

Datang 395.8% 478.3% 454.9% 392.0% 401.1% 400.7% 

Huadian 505.8% 426.0% 549.2% 529.4% 541.9% 535.4% 

CPI 126.8% 259.4% 303.1% 314.6% 307.4% 295.0% 


Table: Interest Coverage Ratios Comparison 

2008A 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 

Interest Coverage Ratio 

CRP 225.7% 431.7% 357.9% 340.3% 385.3% 445.7% 

Huaneng -32.2% 234.2% 181.6% 141.8% 174.4% 190.6% 

Datang 116.6% 176.8% 188.1% 141.2% 155.8% 173.7% 

Huadian -13.5% 157.1% 106.2% 97.9% 121.8% 133.5% 

CPI -14.0% 185.8% 188.4% 160.9% 180.1% 197.5% 


Figure: Net Gearing Comparison Figure: Interest Coverage Ratios Comparison 

600.0% 

500.0% 

400.0% 

300.0% 

200.0% 

100.0% 

0.0% 


Huadian CPI 

2008A 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 


500.0% 

400.0% 

300.0% 

200.0% 

100.0% 

0.0% 

-100.0% 



Huadian CPI 

2008A 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 




Maintain “Neutral” rating for Electricity Sector. Among the five IPPs we cover in Hong Kong market, we maintain 

“Accumulate” rating for CRP (00836 HK) and CPI (02380 HK) and “Neutral” rating for Huaneng (00902 HK), Datang (00991 

HK) and Huadian (01071 HK). 

Figure: 1-Yr Forward PER of China IPPs Figure: 1-Yr Forward P/B of China IPPs 

30 (X) 

25 

20 

15 

10 

5 

0 

Mar-07 

Mar-08 

Mar-09 


Mar-10 

PER (historical mean) PER (current) 

PER (High) PER (Low) 

WA PER band (China IPPs) 

Mar-11 


5 

4 

3 

2 

1 

0 

Mar/06 

(X) 

Mar/07 

Mar/08 


WA P/B band (China IPPs) P/B (historical mean) 

P/B (current) P/B (High) 

P/B (Low ) 

Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International 

Table: Peer comparison and valuation of China IPPs 

Target Potential Mkt cap Capacity Growth (YoY) Power Generation (YoY) Utilization Hour 

Company Ticker Rating Currency Price Price Uptick (HK$ mn) 11F 12F 13F 11F 12F 13F 11F 12F 13F 

CRP 00836 HK Accumulate HKD 14.68 16.90 15.1% 69,636 16.2% 17.6% 9.5% 20.9% 22.0% 16.5% 6,176 6,361 6,552 

Huaneng 00902 HK Neutral HKD 4.16 4.32 3.8% 58,470 20.8% 3.9% 5.8% 24.5% 11.3% 9.3% 5,842 6,017 6,198 

Datang 00991 HK Neutral HKD 2.50 2.76 10.4% 33,275 7.8% 15.9% 14.0% 9.5% 9.4% 19.7% 5,599 5,767 5,940 

Huadian 01071 HK Neutral HKD 1.50 1.54 2.7% 10,157 14.3% 14.2% 5.9% 17.7% 17.8% 13.1% 5,650 5,819 5,994 

CPI 02380 HK Accumulate HKD 1.85 2.66 43.8% 9,448 -0.8% 6.7% 11.9% 6.7% 16.9% 13.0% 5,809 5,983 6,162 

EPS 

EPS (YoY) EBITDA (Mn) 

EBITDA (YoY) 

DPS 

Company 11F 12F 13F 11F 12F 13F 11F 12F 13F 11F 12F 13F 11F 12F 13F 

CRP 0.956 1.409 1.882 -9.1% 47.4% 33.6% 13,858 18,185 23,050 10.6% 31.2% 26.7% 0.287 0.423 0.565 

Huaneng 0.148 0.318 0.410 -46.6% 115.4% 28.7% 20,947 26,609 29,633 9.8% 27.0% 11.4% 0.081 0.175 0.225 

Datang 0.101 0.203 0.311 -51.9% 100.4% 53.1% 17,010 21,429 24,817 2.6% 26.0% 15.8% 0.035 0.071 0.109 

Huadian (0.005) 0.124 0.200 -118.9% -2731.0% 60.4% 7,284 10,577 11,266 13.8% 45.2% 6.5% 0.000 0.031 0.060 

CPI 0.120 0.196 0.258 -8.2% 63.2% 31.7% 4,678 5,751 6,489 9.4% 22.9% 12.8% 0.040 0.065 0.085 

Operating Margin EBITDA Margin Net Profit Margin 

Net Debt/Equity 

ROE 

Company 11F 12F 13F 11F 12F 13F 11F 12F 13F 11F 12F 13F 11F 12F 13F 

CRP 14.1% 15.0% 15.7% 22.0% 21.8% 21.8% 7.2% 8.1% 8.6% 162.6% 159.7% 147.8% 10.3% 13.6% 16.0% 

Huaneng 6.9% 8.8% 9.0% 15.6% 17.1% 16.8% 1.5% 2.9% 3.3% 151.5% 150.5% 163.7% 3.9% 8.2% 9.9% 

Datang 12.7% 15.5% 15.2% 24.9% 26.9% 24.9% 1.9% 3.4% 4.2% 392.0% 401.1% 400.7% 3.8% 6.9% 9.9% 

Huadian 3.3% 7.2% 6.9% 13.2% 15.2% 13.6% -0.1% 1.2% 1.6% 529.4% 541.9% 535.4% -0.2% 4.5% 6.9% 

CPI 16.6% 18.0% 17.9% 27.6% 27.4% 26.3% 3.6% 4.8% 5.3% 314.6% 307.4% 295.0% 4.9% 7.5% 9.3% 

PER (X) 

P/B (X) Div. Yield P/FCF (X) 

EV/EBITDA (X) 

Company 

CRP 

11F 12F 13F 11F 12F 13F 11F 12F 13F 11F 12F 13F 11F 12F 13F 

Current 15.4 10.4 7.8 1.51 1.34 1.17 2.0% 2.9% 3.8% (13.6) (44.0) 51.5 9.31 7.46 6.10 

At target price 

Huaneng 

17.7 12.0 9.0 1.74 1.54 1.35 1.7% 2.5% 3.3% (15.7) (50.6) 59.3 10.08 8.08 6.61 

Current 22.5 10.5 8.1 0.88 0.83 0.78 2.4% 5.3% 6.8% (8.6) 5.4 5.7 5.80 4.87 4.79 


Datang 

23.4 10.9 8.4 0.92 0.86 0.81 2.4% 5.1% 6.5% (8.9) 5.6 5.9 5.88 4.94 4.85 

Current 19.7 9.8 6.4 0.70 0.66 0.61 1.8% 3.6% 5.4% (3.5) (10.3) (15.6) 8.75 7.25 6.72 


Huadian 

21.8 10.9 7.1 0.78 0.73 0.68 1.6% 3.2% 4.9% (3.9) (11.4) (17.2) 8.91 7.38 6.83 

Current (253.7) 9.6 6.0 0.44 0.42 0.40 0.0% 2.6% 5.0% (1.4) (4.9) 14.6 9.35 6.85 6.63 


CPI 

(260.4) 9.9 6.2 0.46 0.44 0.41 0.0% 2.5% 4.9% (1.5) (5.0) 15.0 9.38 6.87 6.65 

Current 12.3 7.6 5.7 0.59 0.55 0.51 2.7% 4.4% 5.7% (6.2) 10.2 3.8 8.62 7.06 6.43 

At target price 17.8 10.9 8.3 0.84 0.79 0.74 1.9% 3.0% 4.0% (8.8) 14.6 5.5 9.33 7.64 6.94 

* All companies' reporting currency is Rmb except CRP, which uses HKD as its reporting currency. 


Mar/09 

Mar/10 




Company Report: China Resources Power (00836 HK) Leo Wu 吴逸超 

公司报告:华润电力 (00836 HK) 

+86 755 23976871 


‘Accumulate’, TP Revised Down 

“收集”评级,下调目标价 

� CRP is the IPP that least vulnerable to coal price increase among its 

peers. Our sensitivity analysis shows that when both average on-grid tariff 

and average spot coal price (VAT inclusive for both) change adversely to the 

Company by RMB10/MWh and RMB20/t, the FY12 EPS of CRP only drops by 

26.8%. 

� We revise down the FY11 EPS estimates to HKD0.956, down 8.2%, mainly 

because of lower dark spread expectation for FY11. On the other side, we 

revise up FY12-13 EPS to HKD1.409 and HKD1.882, up 4.5% and 0.1% 

respectively, representing a better dark spread expectation in FY12-13. 

� Revise down TP to HK$16.90 and maintain ‘Accumulate’ rating. The 

company is currently trading at 15.2x FY11 PER and 10.4x FY12 PER based 

on our estimates. We slightly revise down our TP to HK$16.90, which 

represents 12.0x of FY12 PER and 9.0x FY13 PER. The potential uptick is 

15.1%. 

� 华润电力为同业中业绩最不易受煤价上升影响的独立发电企业。我们的敏感性分析显示当 

上网电价与现货煤价(均为含税价)同时向不利的方向变动 10 元/兆瓦时以及 20 元/吨时, 

华润电力 2012 年的 EPS 仅下降 26.8%。 

� 我们调低了 2011 年的 EPS 预测至港币 0.956 元,下调 8.2%,主要调低了对 2011 年全年 

点火价差的预期。另一方面,我们上调了 2012 至 2013 年的 EPS 预测至港币 1.409 元以 

及 1.882 元,分别上调了 4.5%和 0.1%,主要由于 2012 及 2013 年的点火价差预期改善。 

� 下调目标价至 16.90 港元,维持“收集”评级。基于我们的盈利预测,公司目前股价相当 

于 15.2 倍 2011 年市盈率以及 10.4 倍的 2012 年市盈率。我们略微下调了目标价至 16.90 

港元,相当于 12.0 倍 2012 年市盈率以及 9.0 倍的 2013 年市盈率。潜在股价升幅为 15.1%。 

Year End 

年结 

Turnover 

收入 

Net Profit 

股东净利 

EPS 

每股净利 

EPS 

每股净利变动 


Rating: Accumulate 

Maintained 

评级: 收集 (维持) 

6-18m TP 目标价: HK$16.90 

Revised from 原目标价: HK$17.50 

Share price 股价: HK$14.680 

Stock performance 

股价表现 

20.0 

15.0 

10.0 

5.0 

0.0 

(5.0) 

(10.0) 

(15.0) 

(20.0) 

(25.0) 

(30.0) 

(35.0) 

% of return 

Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 

HSI Index CHINA RESOURCES POWER HOLDIN 

Change in Share Price 

股价变动 


PER 

市盈率 

BPS 

每股净资产 

1 M 

1 个月 

3 M 

3 个月 

1 Y 

1 年 

Abs. % 

绝对变动 % 

4.3 23.4 9.2 

Rel. % to HS index 

相对恒指变动 % 

(0.1) 17.5 25.2 

Avg. share price(HK$) 

14.19 13.68 

平均股价(港元) 

Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International 

13.80 

PBR 

市净率 

DPS 

每股股息 

Yield 

股息率 

ROE 

净资产收益率 

12/31 (HKD m) (HKD m) (HKD) (△%) (x) (HKD) (x) (HKD) (%) (%) 

2009A 

2010A 

2011F 

2012F 

2013F 

33,214 

48,578 

62,981 

83,379 

105,675 

5,317 

4,904 

4,529 

6,720 

9,037 

1.194 

1.052 

0.956 

1.409 

1.882 

194.3 

(11.8) 

(9.1) 

47.4 

33.6 

12.3 

14.0 

15.4 

10.4 

7.8 

8.027 

8.934 

9.698 

10.950 

12.531 

1.8 

1.6 

1.5 

1.3 

1.2 

0.380 

0.330 

0.287 

0.423 

0.565 

2.6 

2.2 

2.0 

2.9 

3.8 

16.4 

12.3 

10.3 

13.6 

16.0 

Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 4,743.6 Major shareholder 大股东 China Resources 64.33% 

Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 69,635.8 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 35.9 

3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 5,980.6 FY11 Net gearing 净负债/股东资金 (%) 162.6 

52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高/低 16.200/10.820 FY11 Est. NAV (HK$) 每股估值(港元) 20.0 

Source‥the Company, Guotai Junan International 



Company Report

CRP is the IPP that least vulnerable to coal price increase among its peers. The coal sales business is expected to 

contribute more and more significantly for CRP and effectively improve the profitability. On the other hand, the expanding 

wind farm business can also improve the profit base that won’t be affected by coal price hikes. Our sensitivity analysis shows 

that when both average on-grid tariff and average spot coal price (VAT inclusive for both) change adversely to the Company 

by RMB10/MWh and RMB20/t, the FY12 EPS of CRP only drops by 26.8%. 

We revise down the FY11 EPS estimates slightly, while revise up the FY12-13 EPS estimates. We revise down the FY11 

EPS estimates to HKD0.956, down 8.2%, mainly because of lower dark spread expectation for FY11. On the other side, we 

revise up FY12-13 EPS to HKD1.409 and HKD1.882, up 4.5% and 0.1% respectively, representing a better dark spread 

expectation in FY12-13. 

Revise down TP to HK$16.90 and maintain ‘Accumulate’ rating. The company is currently trading at 15.2x FY11 PER and 

10.4x FY12 PER based on our estimates. We slightly revise down our TP to HK$16.90, which represents 12.0x of FY12 PER 

and 9.0x FY13 PER. The potential uptick is 15.1%. 

Table: Sensitivity analysis of tariff and coal price for FY12 EPS of CRP (1) 

Base Case FY12 EPS = HK$1.409 

(20) 

FY12 Avg on-grid tariff (VAT Incl.) = 462 (RMB/MWh) 

(10) 0 10 20 

(50) 1.385 1.600 1.815 2.030 2.245 

(40) 1.304 1.519 1.734 1.949 2.164 

(30) 1.223 1.438 1.653 1.868 2.083 

(20) 1.141 1.357 1.572 1.787 2.002 

2012 Avg QHD 

5,500 KCal (VAT 

incl.) = 840 

(10) 

0 

1.060 

0.979 

1.275 

1.194 

1.490 

1.409 

1.705 

1.624 

1.921 

1.839 

(RMB/t) 

10 0.898 1.113 1.328 1.543 1.758 

20 0.817 1.032 1.247 1.462 1.677 

30 0.736 0.951 1.166 1.381 1.596 

40 0.654 0.869 1.085 1.300 1.515 

50 0.573 0.788 1.003 1.218 1.434 

Source: Guotai Junan International estimates 

Table: Sensitivity analysis of tariff and coal price for FY12 EPS of CRP (2) 

Base Case FY12 EPS = HK$1.409 

(20) 

FY12 Avg on-grid tariff (VAT Incl.) = 462 (RMB/MWh) 

(10) 0 10 20 

(50) -1.7% 13.5% 28.8% 44.1% 59.3% 

(40) -7.5% 7.8% 23.0% 38.3% 53.6% 

(30) -13.2% 2.0% 17.3% 32.5% 47.8% 

(20) -19.0% -3.7% 11.5% 26.8% 42.0% 

2012 Avg QHD 


incl.) = 840 

(10) 

0 

-24.8% 

-30.5% 

-9.5% 

-15.3% 

5.8% 

0.0% 

21.0% 

15.3% 

36.3% 

30.5% 

(RMB/t) 

10 -36.3% -21.0% -5.8% 9.5% 24.8% 

20 -42.0% -26.8% -11.5% 3.7% 19.0% 

30 -47.8% -32.5% -17.3% -2.0% 13.2% 

40 -53.6% -38.3% -23.0% -7.8% 7.5% 

50 -59.3% -44.1% -28.8% -13.5% 1.7% 


Table: Scenario Analysis of CRP for FY12 

CRP 

00836 HK 




1.409 



1.787 

- % of EPS change 26.8% 



1.032 



-26.8% 





Figure: Dark Spread Forecast for CRP Figure: Consolidated Capacity of CRP 

RMB/MWh 

160 

140 

120 

100 

80 

60 

40 

20 

0 

Dark Spread of CRP YoY 

2008A 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 

60% 

50% 

40% 

30% 

20% 

10% 

0% 

-10% 

-20% 

-30% 

-40% 


35,000 

30,000 

25,000 

20,000 

15,000 

10,000 


Table: Assumptions of key operating figures 

MW 

5,000 

0 

Coal-fired Gas-fired Wind Hydro 

2008A 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 

Key Assumptions 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F CAGR (%) 

Consolidated capacity (MW) 19,042 22,303 26,972 29,972 16.3% 

YoY % 14.1% 17.1% 20.9% 11.1% 

Capacity by equity share (MW) 19,358 22,499 26,450 28,950 14.4% 

YoY % 9.0% 16.2% 17.6% 9.5% 

Weighted average capacity (MW) 17,670 20,623 24,798 28,476 17.2% 

YoY % 22.6% 16.7% 20.2% 14.8% 

Utilization Hour 5,767 5,972 6,059 6,148 2.2% 

YoY % 3.1% 3.6% 1.5% 1.5% 

Power generation (Bn KWh) 101.9 123.2 150.3 175.1 19.8% 

YoY % 1164.0% 20.9% 22.0% 16.5% 

In house usage (%) 6.58% 6.38% 6.25% 6.11% 

Change ppt -0.1ppt -0.2ppt -0.1ppt -0.1ppt 

Power sales (Bn KWh) 95.2 115.3 140.9 164.4 20.0% 

YoY % 1165.0% 21.1% 22.2% 16.7% 

Avg tariffs (VAT Excl.) (RMB/MWh) 359.0 373.5 394.9 412.0 4.7% 

YoY % 1.4% 4.0% 5.7% 4.3% 

Unit fuel cost (RMB/MWh) 252.7 279.0 290.2 307.0 6.7% 

YoY % -0.2% 10.4% 4.0% 5.8% 

Dark Spread (RMB/MWh) 106.3 94.5 104.7 105.0 

YoY % -27.3% -11.0% 10.8% 0.2% 

Consolidated Coal Sales Volume (Mt) 9.6 13.0 17.6 25.6 38.8% 

YoY % 265.9% 36.1% 35.0% 45.6% 

Coal Sales ASP (RMB/t) 588.7 618.1 633.6 633.6 2.5% 

YoY % 


1.6% 5.0% 2.5% 0.0% 

Table: Sensitivity Analysis of CRP 

Key factors 2011F 

EPS 

2012F 2013F 

Current estimates 0.956 1.409 1.882 

1% increase of utilization hour of coal-fired capacity 0.961 1.415 1.887 

△ 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 

Avg QHD 5,500 Kcal Spot Price up 10RMB/t 0.890 1.328 1.788 

△ -7.0% -5.8% -5.0% 

Avg Tariff (VAT Incl.) up RMB10/MWh 1.135 1.624 2.130 

△ 18.7% 15.3% 13.2% 

Avg Effective Borrowing Rate up 25bps 0.930 1.382 1.853 

△ 


-2.7% -2.0% -1.6% 




Table: Earning adjustments for CRP 

Old Estimates New Estimates %/ppt 

2011F 2012F 2013F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2011F 2012F 2013F 

Operations 

W.a. generating capacity (MW) 20,753 24,928 28,476 20,623 24,798 28,476 -0.6% -0.5% 0.0% 

YoY (%) 17.4 20.1 14.2 16.7 20.2 14.8 -0.7ppt 0.1ppt 0.6ppt 

Utilization Hour 5,955 6,044 6,148 5,972 6,059 6,148 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 

YoY (%) 3.3 1.5 1.7 3.6 1.5 1.5 0.3ppt 0ppt -0.2ppt 

Power production (Bn KWh) 123.6 150.7 175.1 123.2 150.3 175.1 -0.3% -0.3% 0.0% 

YoY (%) 21.3 21.9 16.2 20.9 22.0 16.5 -0.4ppt 0.1ppt 0.3ppt 

Electricity Sales (Bn KWh) 115.7 141.3 164.4 115.3 140.9 164.4 -0.3% -0.3% 0.0% 

YoY (%) 21.6 22.1 16.3 21.1 22.2 16.7 -0.4ppt 0.1ppt 0.3ppt 

Avg on-grid tariff (RMB/MWh) 373.5 390.6 407.7 373.5 394.9 412.0 0.0% 1.1% 1.0% 

YoY (%) 4.0 4.6 4.4 4.0 5.7 4.3 0ppt 1.1ppt 0ppt 

Consolidated Coal Sales Volume (Mt) 13.0 17.6 25.6 13.0 17.6 25.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 

YoY (%) 36.1 35.0 45.6 36.1 35.0 45.6 0ppt 0ppt 0ppt 

ASP of Coal Sales (RMB/t) 618.1 633.6 633.6 618.1 633.6 633.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 

YoY (%) 5.0 2.5 0.0 5.0 2.5 0.0 0ppt 0ppt 0ppt 

Financials (HKD Mn) 

Sales 63,176 82,796 104,737 62,981 83,379 105,675 -0.3% 0.7% 0.9% 

YoY (%) 30.0 31.1 26.5 29.6 32.4 26.7 -0.4ppt 1.3ppt 0.2ppt 

Operating Profit 9,521 12,661 17,641 8,908 12,548 16,550 -6.4% -0.9% -6.2% 

YoY (%) 15.4 33.0 39.3 7.9 40.9 31.9 -7.4ppt 7.9ppt -7.4ppt 

Financial Expense (2,838) (3,832) (4,780) (2,838) (3,634) (4,137) 0.0% -5.2% -13.5% 

YoY (%) 12.3 35.0 24.7 12.3 28.1 13.8 0ppt -7ppt -10.9ppt 

Profit Before Tax 7,433 9,924 14,280 6,820 10,370 14,299 -8.2% 4.5% 0.1% 

YoY (%) 14.1 33.5 43.9 4.7 52.0 37.9 -9.4ppt 18.5ppt -6ppt 

Tax (1,264) (1,886) (2,999) (1,159) (1,970) (3,003) -8.2% 4.5% 0.1% 

YoY (%) 67.4 49.2 59.0 53.6 69.9 52.4 -13.8ppt 20.7ppt -6.6ppt 

Profit After Tax 6,169 8,039 11,281 5,661 8,399 11,296 -8.2% 4.5% 0.1% 

YoY (%) 7.1 30.3 40.3 (1.8) 48.4 34.5 -8.8ppt 18.1ppt -5.8ppt 

Net Profit 4,936 6,431 9,025 4,529 6,720 9,037 -8.2% 4.5% 0.1% 

YoY (%) 0.6 30.3 40.3 (7.6) 48.4 34.5 -8.3ppt 18.1ppt -5.8ppt 

EPS (HKD) 1.042 1.349 1.880 0.956 1.409 1.882 -8.2% 4.5% 0.1% 

YoY (%) (1.0) 29.4 39.4 (9.1) 47.4 33.6 -8.2ppt 18ppt -5.8ppt 

DPS (HKD) 0.313 0.405 0.564 0.287 0.423 0.565 -8.2% 4.5% 0.1% 

YoY (%) (5.3) 29.4 39.4 (13.1) 47.4 33.6 -7.8ppt 18ppt -5.8ppt 

Margins and ratios (%) 

Operating Margin 15.1 15.3 16.8 14.1 15.0 15.7 -0.9ppt -0.2ppt -1.2ppt 

Net Profit Margin 7.8 7.8 8.6 7.2 8.1 8.6 -0.6ppt 0.3ppt -0.1ppt 

ROE 11.1 13.0 16.0 10.3 13.6 16.0 -0.9ppt 0.6ppt 0ppt 

Net Debt/Equity 160.8 158.7 148.3 162.6 159.7 147.8 1.7ppt 0.9ppt -0.5ppt 


Figure: Forward 1-yr PER Curve for 00836 HK Figure: Forward 1-yr P/B Curve for 00836 HK 

25 

20 

15 

10 

5 

0 

2007/03 

(X) 

2008/03 

2009/03 

2010/03 

2011/03 

CRP 



CRP PER band 


6.0 

5.0 

4.0 

3.0 

2.0 

1.0 

0.0 

CRP 

P/B (historical mean) P/B (current) 

P/B (High) 

CRP P/B band 

P/B (Low) 


2007/3 

(X) 

2008/3 

2009/3 

2010/3 

2011/3 




Financial Statements and Ratios 

Income Statement 

Balance Sheet 

Year end Dec (HKD m) 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 

Turnover 33,214 48,578 62,981 83,379 105,675 Fixed Assets 71,553 84,274 90,016 102,313 108,167 

Investment in Associates & JV 9,107 13,215 19,645 25,952 32,614 

Coal Cost (19,052) (29,671) (38,759) (50,175) (63,180) Prepayments 13,132 4,210 6,000 4,000 4,000 

Maintenance (580) (767) (945) (1,188) (1,425) Mining & Exploration Rights 544 10,088 12,184 14,208 16,214 

Depreciation (3,244) (4,275) (4,950) (5,638) (6,500) Others 7,974 8,901 8,996 9,276 9,613 

Others (3,297) (6,743) (11,085) (14,876) (19,065) Non-current Assets 99,928 118,676 135,022 151,830 166,663 

Opt. Cost (26,174) (41,455) (55,738) (71,876) (90,169) 

Cash and Equivalent 6,262 6,802 6,424 6,916 7,878 

Opt. Profit 7,450 8,253 8,908 12,548 16,550 Inventory 1,432 2,006 3,868 3,731 5,827 

Trade Receivable 8,288 10,763 14,429 18,922 23,348 

Other Revenue 410 1,130 1,666 1,045 1,045 Others 3,016 4,763 4,755 4,593 4,194 

Financial Exp. (1,932) (2,527) (2,838) (3,634) (4,137) Current Assets 18,998 24,334 29,476 34,163 41,247 

Income from Associates 890 790 737 1,439 1,864 Total Assets 118,926 143,011 164,499 185,993 207,910 

Derrivative revaluation 0 0 0 0 0 

Profit before Tax 6,408 6,517 6,820 10,370 14,299 Trade Payable 12,763 14,682 20,126 24,904 31,736 

Other Payable 3,419 1,209 993 706 503 

Taxation (370) (755) (1,159) (1,970) (3,003) Short-term Borrowing 23,494 20,668 21,962 24,454 26,215 

Profit after Tax 6,038 5,762 5,661 8,399 11,296 Others 80 149 232 394 601 

Current Liabilities 39,756 36,709 43,314 50,458 59,054 

Minority Interest (720) (858) (1,132) (1,680) (2,259) 

Net Profit 5,317 4,904 4,529 6,720 9,037 Long-term Borrowing 32,990 54,243 59,379 66,116 70,877 

Deferred Liability & Others 1,024 1,798 1,071 1,176 255 

EPS (Basic) 1.194 1.052 0.956 1.409 1.882 Non-current Liabilities 34,015 56,042 60,450 67,292 71,133 

Dividend 1,784 1,561 1,363 2,023 2,720 Share Capital 4,683 4,720 4,752 4,785 4,817 

DPS 0.380 0.330 0.287 0.423 0.565 Reserve 32,911 37,445 41,332 47,608 55,543 

Common Equity 37,594 42,164 46,084 52,393 60,360 

Margin and Efficiency 

Minority Interest 7,561 8,096 8,756 9,955 11,468 

2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F Total Liability and Equity 118,926 143,011 164,499 185,993 207,910 

BVPS 8.03 8.93 9.70 10.95 12.53 

EBITDA Margin (%) 32.2 25.8 22.0 21.8 21.8 

Operating Margin (%) 22.4 17.0 14.1 15.0 15.7 

Cash Flow Statement 

Net Profit Margin (%) 16.0 10.1 7.2 8.1 8.6 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 

Dividend Payout Ratio (%) 31.8 31.4 30.0 30.0 30.0 

Inventory Days 31.5 21.1 27.7 27.6 27.6 PBT 6,408 6,517 6,820 10,370 14,299 

Receivable Days 71.9 71.6 73.0 73.0 73.0 

Payable Days 198.7 168.8 163.9 163.8 163.6 Adjustments: 

D&A 3,244 4,275 4,950 5,638 6,500 

Growth (%) 

Interest Expense 1,882 2,339 2,561 3,426 3,908 

2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F Gain from Ass., JV & Investment (890) (902) (861) (1,568) (1,997) 

Non-Cash One-Offs 46 (237) 17 28 28 

Turnover 24.1 46.3 29.6 32.4 26.7 

EBITDA 69.8 17.1 10.6 31.2 26.7 Changes in WC (674) (536) (620) (98) (404) 

Operating Profit 113.8 10.8 7.9 40.9 31.9 Income Tax Paid & Others (271) (635) (928) (1,576) (2,402) 

Net Profit 209.6 (7.8) (7.6) 48.4 34.5 Operating Cash Flow 9,745 10,820 11,939 16,219 19,931 

Dividend 192.3 (13.2) (13.1) 47.4 33.6 

Purchase PP&E & Rights (19,067) (16,770) (14,000) (15,000) (15,000) 

Valuation 

Acquisitions (3,373) (520) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000) 

2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F Invest in Ass., JV & Investee Co. (114) (3,477) (5,000) (4,000) (4,000) 

Dividends Received 313 1,034 744 701 1,263 

PE (X) 12.3 14.0 15.4 10.4 7.8 Interests Received 50 273 277 208 228 

EV/Sales (X) 2.9 2.1 2.0 1.5 1.3 Others (1,139) (938) 9 162 400 

EV/EBITDA (X) 9.2 8.2 8.9 7.1 5.9 Investing Cash Flow (23,330) (20,399) (18,970) (18,929) (18,108) 

P/BV (X) 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 

Dividend Yield (%) 2.6 2.2 2.0 2.9 3.8 Proceeds from Perpetual Capital 0 0 5,790 0 0 

Proceeds from Share Issue 2,286 159 205 205 205 

Financial Ratios 

New Borrowings, Net 13,459 17,756 6,430 9,229 6,522 

2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F Interest Paid (2,441) (2,727) (3,284) (3,972) (4,423) 

Dividends Paid (1,085) (2,455) (2,346) (2,048) (3,037) 

Net Debt/Equity (X) 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 Others 2,205 (2,811) (216) (287) (203) 

Long-term Debt/Equity (X) 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 Financing Cash Flow 14,424 9,922 6,579 3,126 (936) 

Current Ratio (X) 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 

Interest Coverage (X) 4.3 3.6 3.4 3.9 4.5 Net Change of Cash 839 344 (453) 416 886 

ROE (%) 16.4 12.3 10.3 13.6 16.0 Cash b/f 5,467 6,262 6,802 6,424 6,916 

ROA (%) 5.4 3.7 2.9 3.8 4.6 FX Adjustments (44) 196 76 76 76 

ROC (%) 9.5 7.4 6.4 7.9 9.2 Cash c/f 6,262 6,802 6,424 6,916 7,878 

Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International Estimates 





Company Report: Huaneng Power (00902 HK) Leo Wu 吴逸超 

公司报告:华能国际 (00902 HK) 

+86 755 23976871 


“Neutral”, Raise TP 

“中性”,上调目标价 

� Based on our analysis, in an optimistic scenario where the average on-grid 

tariff (VAT inclusive) up 10RMB/MWh and average QHD 5,500 Kcal spot price 

down 20RMB/t in 2012, the FY12 EPS of Huaneng will be 82.0% higher than 

that in our base scenario. On the other side, when both key factors change 

adversely to Huaneng, the FY12 EPS will be cut 82.0%. This shows that the 

stability of the profitability of Huaneng is still quite low. 

� We revise down the FY11 EPS estimates by 18.0%, while revise up the 

FY12-13 EPS estimates by 33.4% and 35.0%. Our current FY11-13 EPS 

estimates are RMB0.148, RMB0.318 and RMB0.410, respectively. The 

improving EPS in FY12 and FY13 is mainly because the higher dark spread 

estimates for FY12 and FY13 and lower borrowing rate expectation in FY13. 

� Revise up TP to HK$4.32 and maintain ‘Neutral’ rating. The company is 

currently trading at 22.8x FY11 PER and 10.6x FY12 PER based on our 

estimates. We slightly revise up our TP to HK$4.32, which represents 11.0x of 

FY12 PER and 8.5x FY13 PER. The potential uptick is 3.8%. 

� 基于我们的分析,在一个乐观情景中,当平均上网电价(含税)上调 10 元/兆瓦时并且平 

均秦皇岛 5,500 大卡现货价降 20 元/吨,华能国际的 2012 年 EPS 将比我们的基础情景高 

82.0%。另一方面,如果这两个因素向不利的方向做相同变动,2012 年 EPS 将降 82.0%。 

这表明华能国际的盈利稳定性是较低的。 

� 我们将 2011 年的 EPS 预测下调了 18.0%,同时将 2012 及 2013 年的 EPS 上调了 33.4% 

和 35.0%。我们目前的 2011-13 年 EPS 预测分别为人民币 0.148,0.318 以及 0.410。2012 

及 2013 年的 EPS 改善主要是由于调高了这两年的点火价差预测以及降低了 2013 年的借 

贷成本预期。 

� 上调目标价至 4.32 港元,维持“中性”评级。基于我们的盈利预测,公司目前股价相当于 

22.8 倍 2011 年市盈率以及 10.6 倍的 2012 年市盈率。我们上调了目标价至 4.32 港元,相 

当于 11.0 倍 2012 年市盈率以及 8.5 倍的 2013 年市盈率。潜在股价升幅为 3.8%。 

Year End 

年结 

Turnover 

收入 

Net Profit 

股东净利 

EPS 

每股净利 

EPS 




Maintained 






股价表现 

20.0 

15.0 

10.0 

5.0 

0.0 

(5.0) 

(10.0) 

(15.0) 

(20.0) 

(25.0) 

(30.0) 

(35.0) 

% of return 


HSI Index HUANENG POWER INTL INC-H 


股价变动 


PER 

市盈率 

BPS 


1 M 

1 个月 

3 M 

3 个月 

1 Y 

1 年 

Abs. % 


4.3 30.8 6.7 



(0.1) 25.0 22.7 


3.98 3.69 



3.94 

PBR 

市净率 

DPS 

每股股息 

Yield 

股息率 

ROE 


12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) (△%) (x) (RMB) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 

2009A 76,711 4,930 0.409 (225.2) 8.1 3.494 1.0 0.210 6.3 12.5 

2010A 104,170 3,348 0.277 (32.4) 12.0 3.827 0.9 0.200 6.0 7.0 

2011F 133,997 2,077 0.148 (46.6) 22.5 3.775 0.9 0.081 2.4 3.9 

2012F 155,367 4,473 0.318 115.4 10.5 4.012 0.8 0.175 5.3 8.2 

2013F 175,959 5,758 0.410 28.7 8.1 4.246 0.8 0.225 6.8 9.9 

Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 14,055.4 Major shareholder 大股东 Huaneng Group 50.95% 


3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 16,027.7 FY11 Net gearing (%) FY11 净负债/股东资金 (%) 151.5 

52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高/低 4.650/3.010 FY11 Est. NAV (HK$) FY11 每股估值(港元) 9.2 





The EPS of Huaneng Power International (“Huaneng”) will continue to be highly sensitive to tariff change and coal 

price change. Based on our analysis, in an optimistic scenario where the average on-grid tariff (VAT inclusive) up 

10RMB/MWh and average QHD 5,500 Kcal spot price down 20RMB/t in 2012, the FY12 EPS of Huaneng will be 82.0% higher 

than that in our base scenario. On the other side, when both key factors change adversely to Huaneng, the FY12 EPS will be 

cut 82.0%. This shows that the stability of the profitability of Huaneng is still quite low. 

We revise down the FY11 EPS estimates by 18.0%, while revise up the FY12-13 EPS estimates by 33.4% and 35.0%. 

Our current FY11-13 EPS estimates are RMB0.148, RMB0.318 and RMB0.410, respectively. The improving EPS in FY12 and 

FY13 is mainly because the higher dark spread estimates for FY12 and FY13 and lower borrowing rate expectation in FY13. 

Revise up TP to HK$4.32 and maintain ‘Neutral’ rating. The company is currently trading at 22.8x FY11 PER and 10.6x 

FY12 PER based on our estimates. We slightly revise up our TP to HK$4.32, which represents 11.0x of FY12 PER and 8.5x 

FY13 PER. The potential uptick is 3.8%. 

Table: Sensitivity analysis of tariff and coal price for FY12 EPS of Huaneng Power International (1) 

Base Case FY12 EPS = RMB0.318 

(20) 

FY12 Avg tariff (VAT Incl.) = 455.7 (RMB/MWh) 

(10) 0 10 20 

(50) 0.3137 0.4597 0.6057 0.7517 0.8977 

(40) 0.2562 0.4022 0.5482 0.6942 0.8402 

(30) 0.1987 0.3447 0.4907 0.6367 0.7827 

(20) 0.1412 0.2872 0.4332 0.5792 0.7252 

FY12 Avg QHD 


incl.) = 840 

(10) 

0 

0.0838 

0.0263 

0.2297 

0.1723 

0.3757 

0.3183 

0.5217 

0.4642 

0.6677 

0.6102 

(RMB/t) 

10 (0.0312) 0.1148 0.2608 0.4068 0.5527 

20 (0.0887) 0.0573 0.2033 0.3493 0.4953 

30 (0.1462) (0.0002) 0.1458 0.2918 0.4378 

40 (0.2037) (0.0577) 0.0883 0.2343 0.3803 

50 (0.2611) (0.1152) 0.0308 0.1768 0.3228 


Table: Sensitivity analysis of tariff and coal price for FY12 EPS of Huaneng Power International (2) 


(20) 

FY12 Avg tariff (VAT Incl.) = 455.7 (RMB/MWh) 

(10) 0 10 20 

(50) -1.4% 44.4% 90.3% 136.2% 182.1% 

(40) -19.5% 26.4% 72.3% 118.1% 164.0% 

(30) -37.6% 8.3% 54.2% 100.1% 145.9% 

(20) -55.6% -9.7% 36.1% 82.0% 127.9% 

FY12 Avg QHD 


incl.) = 840 

(10) 

0 

-73.7% 

-91.7% 

-27.8% 

-45.9% 

18.1% 

0.0% 

63.9% 

45.9% 

109.8% 

91.7% 

(RMB/t) 

10 -109.8% -63.9% -18.1% 27.8% 73.7% 

20 -127.9% -82.0% -36.1% 9.7% 55.6% 

30 -145.9% -100.1% -54.2% -8.3% 37.6% 

40 -164.0% -118.1% -72.3% -26.4% 19.5% 

50 -182.1% -136.2% -90.3% -44.4% 1.4% 


Table: Scenario Analysis of Huaneng for FY12 

Huaneng 





0.318 



0.579 




0.057 



-82.0% 





Table: Key assumptions of the operating factors of Huaneng Power International (00902 HK) 

Key Assumptions 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 3 Yr CAGR (%) 

Consolidated operating capacity (MW) 51,422 62,587 66,273 70,523 11.1% 

YoY 18.3% 21.7% 5.9% 6.4% 

Operating capacity by equity share (MW) 45,849 54,972 58,018 61,868 10.5% 

YoY 22.5% 19.9% 5.5% 6.6% 

Weighted average consolidated operating capacity (MW) 50,240 58,868 64,056 68,399 10.8% 

YoY 34.8% 17.2% 8.8% 6.8% 

Utilization Hour - Coal-fired 5,564 5,842 6,017 6,198 3.7% 

YoY 6.6% 5.0% 3.0% 3.0% 

Power generation - domestic (Bn KWh) 257.0 319.8 355.9 388.9 14.8% 

YoY 26.3% 24.5% 11.3% 9.3% 

In house usage (%) 5.90% 5.73% 5.61% 5.50% 

Change ppt 0ppt -0.2ppt -0.1ppt -0.1ppt 

Electricity sales - domestic (Bn KWh) 241.8 301.5 335.9 367.5 15.0% 

YoY 26.2% 24.7% 11.4% 9.4% 

Avg on-grid tariff (VAT Excl.) (RMB/MWh) 360.4 370.6 389.5 406.5 4.1% 

YoY 1.1% 2.8% 5.1% 4.4% 

Unit fuel cost of power sold (RMB/MWh) 247.5 273.8 283.5 299.7 6.6% 

YoY 14.7% 10.6% 3.5% 5.7% 


YoY -19.9% -14.3% 9.4% 0.9% 

Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International 

Table: Single Parameter Sensitivity analysis of Key Factors to Huaneng Power International's Earnings 

EPS 

Key factors 2011F 2012F 2013F 

Current 0.148 0.318 0.410 


△ 9.7% 5.5% 4.7% 


△ 87.6% 45.9% 39.0% 


△ -34.3% -18.1% -15.5% 


△ 


-10.4% -5.6% -4.7% 

Figure: Dark Spread Forecast for Huaneng 

RMB/MWh 

160.0 

140.0 

120.0 

100.0 

80.0 

60.0 

40.0 

20.0 

0.0 

2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 


Dark Spread of Huaneng YoY 

100% 

80% 

60% 

40% 

20% 

0% 

-20% 

-40% 





Table: Earning Adjustments of Huaneng Power International (00902 HK) 

Operation 

Old Estimates New Estimates YoY/ppt 

2011F 2012F 2013F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2011F 2012F 2013F 

Total Consolidated Capacity (MW) 59,915 65,441 68,791 62,587 66,273 70,523 4.5% 1.3% 2.5% 

YoY % 15.5 9.6 5.7 21.2 4.5 5.7 5.7ppt -5.1ppt 0ppt 

Utilization Hour of Domestic Coal-fired Capacity 5,675 5,788.8 5,846.7 5,842 6,017.5 6,198.0 2.9% 4.0% 6.0% 

YoY % 2.0 2.0 1.0 5.0 3.0 3.0 3ppt 1ppt 2ppt 

Power generation - domestic (MMWh) 301.1 334.9 363.7 319.8 355.9 388.9 6.2% 6.3% 6.9% 

YoY % 17.2 11.2 8.6 24.5 11.3 9.3 7.3ppt 0.1ppt 0.7ppt 

Power Sales - domestic (MMWh) 284.0 316.0 343.3 301.5 335.9 367.5 6.2% 6.3% 7.1% 

YoY % 17.4 11.3 8.7 7.7 26.2 9.4 -9.7ppt 14.9ppt 0.7ppt 

Financials (RMB Mn) 

Sales 128,874 145,199 160,366 133,997 155,367 175,959 4.0% 7.0% 9.7% 

YoY % 23.7 12.7 10.4 28.6 15.9 13.3 4.9ppt 3.3ppt 2.8ppt 

Fuel Cost 84,056 93,429 101,492 91,561 104,705 120,059 8.9% 12.1% 18.3% 

YoY % 23.8 11.2 8.6 34.9 14.4 14.7 11.1ppt 3.2ppt 6ppt 

Gross Profit 44,818 51,770 58,874 42,436 50,662 55,900 -5.3% -2.1% -5.1% 

YoY % 23.5 15.5 13.7 17.0 19.4 10.3 -6.6ppt 3.9ppt -3.4ppt 

Operating Profit 9,811 12,050 14,487 9,276 13,713 15,870 -5.5% 13.8% 9.5% 

YoY % 13.7 22.8 20.2 7.5 47.8 15.7 -6.2ppt 25ppt -4.5ppt 

Financial Expense 7,118 8,443 9,776 7,046 8,441 8,922 -1.0% 0.0% -8.7% 

YoY % 39.4 18.6 15.8 38.0 19.8 5.7 -1.4ppt 1.2ppt -10.1ppt 


YoY % -15.4 31.1 28.1 -29.2 113.0 28.7 -13.9ppt 81.9ppt 0.6ppt 

Tax 952 1,155 1,480 796 1,570 2,020 -16.4% 35.9% 36.5% 

YoY % 12.9 21.4 28.1 -5.5 97.2 28.7 -18.5ppt 75.8ppt 0.6ppt 

Net Profit 2,532 3,354 4,264 2,077 4,473 5,758 -18.0% 33.4% 35.0% 

YoY % -24.4 32.5 27.1 -38.0 115.4 28.7 -13.6ppt 82.9ppt 1.6ppt 

EPS (RMB) 0.180 0.239 0.303 0.148 0.318 0.410 -18.0% 33.4% 35.0% 

YoY % -34.9 32.5 27.1 -46.6 115.4 28.7 -11.7ppt 82.9ppt 1.6ppt 

DPS (RMB) 0.099 0.131 0.167 0.081 0.175 0.225 -18.0% 33.4% 35.0% 

YoY % -50.5 32.5 27.1 -59.4 115.4 28.7 -8.9ppt 82.9ppt 1.6ppt 


Gross Margin 34.8 35.7 36.7 31.7 32.6 31.8 -3.1ppt -3ppt -4.9ppt 

Operating Margin 7.6 8.3 9.0 6.9 8.8 9.0 -0.7ppt 0.5ppt 0ppt 

Net Profit Margin 2.0 2.3 2.7 1.5 2.9 3.3 -0.4ppt 0.6ppt 0.6ppt 

ROE 4.7 6.2 7.5 3.9 8.2 9.9 -0.8ppt 2ppt 2.4ppt 

Net Debt/Equity 192.5 196.6 195.0 151.5 150.5 163.7 -41ppt -46.1ppt -31.3ppt 



20 

15 

10 

5 

0 

2007/3 

25 (X) 

2008/3 

2009/3 

Huaneng 

2010/3 

2011/3 



Huaneng PER band 


2.5 

2.0 

1.5 

1.0 

0.5 

0.0 

2007/3 

3.0 (X) 

2008/3 

2009/3 

Huaneng 

2010/3 


P/B (High) P/B (Low) 

Huaneng P/B band 


2011/3 





Income Statement Balance Sheet 

Year end Dec (RMB m) 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F Year end Dec (RMB m) 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 

Net Turnover 76,711 104,170 133,997 155,367 175,959 Fixed Assets 140,777 155,225 168,929 178,927 188,026 

Investment in Associates 9,569 11,973 13,406 15,109 16,875 

Coal Cost (44,861) (67,892) (91,561) (104,705) (120,059) Investment for Sale 2,556 2,224 2,224 2,224 2,224 

Maintenance (2,035) (2,302) (2,365) (2,816) (2,982) Goodwill 11,611 12,641 13,541 14,081 14,621 

Depreciation (8,572) (10,447) (11,671) (12,895) (13,764) Other 1,023 5,392 2,320 2,349 2,351 

Staff Cost (3,595) (4,067) (4,951) (5,347) (5,861) Intangible Assets 3,844 4,058 4,474 4,819 5,155 

Power purchase Cost (3,639) (5,557) (7,586) (8,724) (9,597) Non-current Assets 173,697 196,382 211,439 223,930 235,499 

Service Charge (141) (141) (141) (141) (141) 

Others (4,693) (5,135) (6,446) (7,025) (7,687) Cash and Equivalent 5,452 9,548 9,333 12,418 12,216 

Operating Cost (67,537) (95,541) (124,722) (141,654) (160,089) Derivative financial assets 142 133 133 133 133 

Operating Profit 9,174 8,629 9,276 13,713 15,870 Account Receivable 10,043 10,909 15,603 15,991 19,790 

Inventory 4,084 5,190 7,697 7,246 9,678 

Interest Income 60 89 162 159 211 Others 4,469 5,776 5,370 5,396 5,375 

Interest Exp. (4,260) (5,283) (7,208) (8,599) (9,133) Current Assets 24,190 31,556 38,136 41,184 47,192 

FX Gain/(Loss) (49) 88 0 0 0 Total Assets 197,887 227,938 249,575 265,115 282,691 

Financial Cost, Net (4,249) (5,106) (7,046) (8,441) (8,922) 

Income from Associates 756 569 718 1,005 1,133 Account Payables 14,525 19,555 24,631 26,602 31,421 

Other Payables 962 1,095 1,197 1,497 1,824 

PBT 5,704 4,164 2,948 6,278 8,081 Short-term bonds 10,101 5,070 5,050 5,050 5,050 

Taxation (594) (843) (796) (1,570) (2,020) ST & Current LT loans 33,980 57,830 66,201 67,822 63,463 

PAT 5,110 3,321 2,152 4,709 6,061 Current Liabilities 59,582 83,637 97,165 101,059 101,845 

Minority Interest (181) 27 (75) (235) (303) 

Net Profit 4,930 3,348 2,077 4,473 5,758 CB (Long-term) 13,800 13,831 13,860 12,870 12,870 

Long-term Debt 71,267 65,185 74,652 82,894 95,195 

EPS (Basic) 0.409 0.277 0.148 0.318 0.410 Others 2,590 2,764 2,188 2,798 2,934 

EPS (Diluted) 0.409 0.277 0.148 0.318 0.410 Non-current Liabilities 87,657 81,876 90,987 98,849 111,285 

Dividend 2,532 2,811 1,142 2,460 3,167 Share Capital 12,055 14,055 14,055 14,055 14,055 

Dividend per Share 0.210 0.200 0.081 0.175 0.225 Reserve 30,069 39,734 38,999 42,330 45,628 

Dividend Yield (%) 6.232 5.935 2.412 5.195 6.686 Common Equity 42,124 53,789 53,055 56,386 59,683 



Total Debt and Equity 197,887 227,938 249,575 265,115 282,691 

2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F BVPS 3.494 3.827 3.775 4.012 4.246 

EBITDA Margin (%) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 


Operating Margin (%) 12.0 8.3 6.9 8.8 9.0 Year end Dec (RMB m) 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2012F 

Net Profit Margin (%) 6.4 3.2 1.5 2.9 3.3 

Inventory Days 37.6 24.9 25.7 26.0 25.7 PBT 5,704 4,164 2,948 6,278 8,081 

Trade Receivable Days 42.4 36.7 36.1 37.1 37.1 Depreciation 8,572 10,447 11,671 12,895 13,764 

Account Payable Days 103.3 91.6 88.1 89.3 88.2 Interest Income (60) (89) (162) (159) (211) 

Interest Exp. 4,260 5,283 7,208 8,599 9,133 

Growth (%) 

Changes in Working Capital (3,044) (40) (1,745) 1,735 (1,681) 

2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F Interest Received 60 55 162 159 211 

Tax Payment (491) (1,111) (796) (1,570) (2,020) 

Turnover 13.3 35.8 28.6 15.9 13.3 Operating Cash Flow 14,981 18,067 19,108 27,551 26,794 

EBITDA 1.8 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 

Operating Profit (8.4) (0.1) 0.1 0.5 0.2 Capital Investment (22,426) (20,704) (16,841) (18,000) (18,000) 

Net Profit (2.3) (0.3) (0.4) 1.2 0.3 Short-term Investment 540 315 497 781 867 

EPS (2.3) (0.3) (0.5) 1.2 0.3 Cash paid for acquisitions (2,356) (851) 0 0 0 

Dividend 1.1 (0.0) (0.6) 1.2 0.3 Others (355) 46 0 0 0 

Valuation 

Investing Cash Flow (24,880) (26,981) (25,344) (22,619) (22,533) 

2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F Net Increase in Bonds 8,900 (5,040) (20) (1,020) (20) 

Net Increase in Borrowings 6,828 16,112 16,216 8,967 7,220 

EV/S (X) 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 Interest Paid (5,378) (5,997) (7,208) (8,599) (9,133) 

EV/EBITDA (X) 6.4 5.7 5.6 4.7 4.6 Dividend Payout (1,242) (2,528) (2,811) (1,142) (2,460) 

P/E (X) 8.2 12.2 22.8 10.6 8.2 New shares offering 0 10,280 0 0 0 

P/Opt. CF (X) 2.7 2.3 2.5 1.7 1.8 Others 396 236 (34) (53) (69) 

P/BV 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 Financing Cash Flow 9,504 13,063 6,143 (1,847) (4,463) 

ROE (%) 12.5 7.0 3.9 8.2 9.9 

ROA (%) 2.7 1.6 0.9 1.7 2.1 Cash Increase (340) 4,199 (93) 3,085 (202) 

ROC (%) 8.6 5.6 5.9 10.5 11.0 Cash b/f 5,567 5,227 9,426 9,333 12,418 


Cash c/f 5,227 9,426 9,333 12,418 12,216 

2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 

Net Debt/Equity (X) 1.9 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.6 

LT Debt/Equity (X) 2.0 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 


Interest Coverage (X) 2.2 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.7 

Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. 





Company Report: Datang Internaional Power (00991 HK) Leo Wu 吴逸超 

公司报告:大唐发电 (00991 HK) 

+86 755 23976871 


‘Neutral’, Slightly Raise TP 

“中性”,略微上调目标价 



down 20RMB/t in 2012, the FY12 EPS of Datang will be 81.7% higher than 


adversely to Datang, the FY12 EPS will be cut 81.7%. We think this illustrates 

the profitability is still vulnerable to tariff change and coal price change. 



estimates are RMB0.101, RMB0.203 and RMB0.311, respectively. The 



� Revise up TP to HK$2.76 and maintain ‘Neutral’ rating. The company is 

currently trading at 20.0x FY11 PER and 10.0x FY12 PER based on our 

estimates. We slightly revise up our TP to HK$2.76, which represents 11.0x of 

FY12 PER and 7.2x FY13 PER. The potential uptick is 10.4%. 


均秦皇岛 5,500 大卡现货价降 20 元/吨,大唐发电的 2012 年 EPS 将比我们的基础情景高 


我们认为这表明盈利能力依然非常易受电价及煤价变动的影响。 


和 40.7%。我们目前的 2011-13 年 EPS 预测分别为人民币 0.101,0.203 以及 0.311。2012 



� 上调目标价至 2.76 港元,维持“中性”评级。基于我们的盈利预测,公司目前股价相当于 

20.0 倍 2011 年市盈率以及 10.0 倍的 2012 年市盈率。我们上调了目标价至 2.76 港元,相 

当于 11.0 倍 2012 年市盈率以及 7.2 倍的 2013 年市盈率。潜在股价升幅为 10.4%。 

Year End 

年结 

Turnover 

收入 

Net Profit 

股东净利 

EPS 

每股净利 

EPS 




Maintained 






股价表现 

(40.0) 



PER 

市盈率 

BPS 


20.0 

10.0 

0.0 

(10.0) 

(20.0) 

(30.0) 

% of return 

HSI Index DATANG INTL POWER GEN CO-H 


股价变动 

1 M 

1 个月 

3 M 

3 个月 

1 Y 

1 年 

Abs. % 


1.6 25.6 (5.7) 



(2.8) 19.8 10.3 


2.50 2.26 



2.52 

PBR 

市净率 

DPS 

每股股息 

Yield 

股息率 

ROE 



2009A 47,943 1,537 0.130 104.5 15.3 2.218 0.9 0.070 3.5 5.9 

2010A 60,672 2,570 0.211 61.6 9.5 2.506 0.8 0.070 3.5 9.0 

2011F 68,422 1,307 0.101 (51.9) 19.7 2.847 0.7 0.035 1.8 3.8 

2012F 79,806 2,703 0.203 100.4 9.8 3.016 0.7 0.071 3.6 6.9 

2013F 99,489 4,139 0.311 53.1 6.4 3.256 0.6 0.109 5.4 9.9 

Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 13,310.0 Major shareholder 大股东 China Datang 32.07% 








The result of Datang International Power (“Datang”) in FY12 remains to be vulnerable to tariff change and coal price 

change. Based on our analysis, in an optimistic scenario where the average on-grid tariff (VAT inclusive) up 10RMB/MWh and 

average QHD 5,500 Kcal spot price down 20RMB/t in 2012, the FY12 EPS of Datang will be 81.7% higher than that in our 

base scenario. On the other side, when both key factors change adversely to Datang, the FY12 EPS will be cut 81.7%. We 

think this illustrates the profitability is still vulnerable to tariff change and coal price change. 

We revise down the FY11 EPS estimates by 34.0%, while revise up the FY12-13 EPS estimates by 17.2% and 40.7%. 

Our current FY11-13 EPS estimates are RMB0.101, RMB0.203 and RMB0.311, respectively. The improving EPS in FY12 and 


Revise up TP to HK$2.76 and maintain ‘Neutral’ rating. The company is currently trading at 20.0x FY11 PER and 10.0x 

FY12 PER based on our estimates. We slightly revise up our TP to HK$2.76, which represents 11.0x of FY12 PER and 7.2x 


Table: Sensitivity analysis of tariff and coal price for FY12 EPS of Datang INTL Power (1) 


FY12 Avg coal-fired tariff (VAT Incl.) = 419.7 (RMB/MWh) 

(20) (10) 0 10 20 

(50) 0.161 0.263 0.364 0.466 0.567 

(40) 0.129 0.231 0.332 0.433 0.535 

(30) 0.097 0.198 0.300 0.401 0.503 

(20) 0.065 0.166 0.268 0.369 0.470 

FY12 Avg QHD 

5,500 KCal 

(VAT incl.) = 

(10) 

0 

0.032 

0.000 

0.134 

0.102 

0.235 

0.203 

0.337 

0.304 

0.438 

0.406 

840 (RMB/t) 

10 (0.032) 0.069 0.171 0.272 0.374 

20 (0.064) 0.037 0.139 0.240 0.341 

30 (0.097) 0.005 0.106 0.208 0.309 

40 (0.129) (0.027) 0.074 0.175 0.277 

50 (0.161) (0.060) 0.042 0.143 0.245 


Table: Sensitivity analysis of tariff and coal price for FY12 EPS of Datang INTL Power (2) 


(20) 

FY12 Avg on-grid tariff (VAT Incl.) = 419.7 (RMB/MWh) 

(10) 0 10 20 

(50) -20.5% 29.5% 79.4% 129.4% 179.3% 

(40) -36.4% 13.6% 63.5% 113.5% 163.4% 

(30) -52.3% -2.3% 47.6% 97.6% 147.5% 

(20) -68.1% -18.2% 31.8% 81.7% 131.7% 

FY12 Avg QHD 

5,500 KCal 

(VAT incl.) = 

(10) 

0 

-84.0% 

-99.9% 

-34.1% 

-49.9% 

15.9% 

0.0% 

65.8% 

49.9% 

115.8% 

99.9% 

38.3 (RMB/t) 

10 -115.8% -65.8% -15.9% 34.1% 84.0% 

20 -131.7% -81.7% -31.8% 18.2% 68.1% 

30 -147.5% -97.6% -47.6% 2.3% 52.3% 

40 -163.4% -113.5% -63.5% -13.6% 36.4% 

50 -179.3% -129.4% -79.4% -29.5% 20.5% 


Table: Scenario Analysis of Datang INTL Power for FY12 

Datang 





0.203 



0.369 




0.037 



Table: Key assumptions of the operating factors of Datang INTL Power (00991 HK) 

-81.7% 





Key Assumptions 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F CAGR (%) 

Consolidated capacity (MW) 36,300 38,921 44,372 48,562 10.2 

YoY 18.1% 7.2% 14.0% 9.4% 

Capacity by equity share (MW) 26,372 28,431 32,951 37,551 12.5 

YoY 16.8% 7.8% 15.9% 14.0% 

Weighted average capacity (MW) 35,710 37,440 40,848 46,492 9.2 

YoY 23.5% 4.8% 9.1% 13.8% 

Utilization Hour of coal-fired plants 5,332 5,599 5,767 5,940 3.7 

YoY 1.5% 5.0% 3.0% 3.0% 

Total electricity production (Bn KWh) 178.5 195.4 213.7 255.9 12.8 

YoY 25.8% 9.5% 9.4% 19.7% 

In house usage (%) 5.74% 5.64% 5.54% 5.44% 


Electricity sales (Bn KWh) 168.2 184.4 201.9 241.9 12.9 

YoY 26.0% 9.6% 9.5% 19.8% 

Avg. on-grid tariff (VAT excl.) (RMB/MWh) 318.6 337.4 358.7 375.8 5.7 

YoY 1.2% 5.9% 6.3% 4.8% 

Unit fuel cost of power sold (RMB/MWh) 200.8 229.2 239.3 260.2 9.0 

YoY 14.9% 14.1% 4.4% 8.7% 


YoY -15.9% -8.1% 10.4% -3.1% 


Table: Sensitivity analysis of key factors to earnings of Datang INTL Power (00991 HK) 


EPS 

2012F 2013F 


YoY -51.9% 100.4% 53.1% 


△ 10.3% 6.0% 4.4% 


△ -30.3% -15.9% -12.6% 


△ 96.8% 49.9% 38.1% 


△ 


-22.9% -11.8% -8.0% 

Figure: Dark Spread Forecast of Datang Power 

RMB/MWh 

160.0 

140.0 

120.0 

100.0 

80.0 

60.0 

40.0 

20.0 

0.0 

2009A 

2010A 


Dark Spread of Datang YoY 

2011F 

2012F 

2013F 

30% 

25% 

20% 

15% 

10% 

5% 

0% 

-5% 

-10% 

-15% 

-20% 





Table: Earning adjustments of Datang INTL Power (00991 HK) 

2011F 2012F 2013F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2011F 2012F 2013F 

Old est. New est. YoY/ppt 

Operation 

Capacity by equity share (MW) 28,431 32,951 37,551 28,431 32,951 37,551 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 

YoY (%) 7.8 15.9 14.0 7.8 15.9 14.0 0ppt 0ppt 0ppt 

Utilization Hour of coal-fired plants (hrs) 5,545 5,656 5,769 5,599 5,767 5,940 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 

YoY % 4.0 2.0 2.0 5.0 3.0 3.0 1ppt 1ppt 1ppt 

Total electricity production (Bn KWh) 194 210 249 195 214 256 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 

YoY % 8.4 8.3 18.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 -8.4ppt -8.2ppt -18.3ppt 

Electricity Sales (Bn KWh) 183 198 235 184 202 242 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 

YoY (%) 8.6 8.4 18.7 9.6 9.5 19.8 1ppt 1.1ppt 1.2ppt 


Sales 68,247 77,191 93,913 68,422 79,806 99,489 0.3% 3.4% 5.9% 

YoY (%) 12.5 13.1 21.7 12.8 16.6 24.7 0.3ppt 3.5ppt 3ppt 

Operating Cost 58,415 65,004 79,006 59,747 67,474 84,398 2.3% 3.8% 6.8% 

YoY (%) 13.5 11.3 21.5 16.1 12.9 25.1 2.6ppt 1.7ppt 3.5ppt 


YoY (%) 6.8 24.0 22.3 (5.7) 42.1 22.4 -12.6ppt 18.2ppt 0ppt 

Financial Expense 6,965 8,730 10,333 6,731 8,510 9,286 -3.4% -2.5% -10.1% 

YoY (%) 30.6 25.3 18.4 26.2 26.4 9.1 -4.4ppt 1.1ppt -9.2ppt 


YoY (%) (21.5) 19.4 31.0 (41.0) 71.3 44.1 -19.6ppt 52ppt 13.1ppt 

Profit After Tax 2,952 3,436 4,384 2,217 3,703 5,198 -24.9% 7.8% 18.6% 

YoY (%) (22.9) 16.4 27.6 (42.1) 67.0 40.4 -19.2ppt 50.7ppt 12.8ppt 

Net Profit 1,981 2,306 2,942 1,307 2,703 4,139 -34.0% 17.2% 40.7% 

YoY (%) (22.9) 16.4 27.6 (49.1) 106.8 53.1 -26.2ppt 90.4ppt 25.5ppt 

EPS (Rmb) 0.154 0.173 0.221 0.101 0.203 0.311 -34.0% 17.2% 40.7% 

YoY (%) (27.1) 12.8 27.6 (51.9) 100.4 53.1 -24.8ppt 87.6ppt 25.5ppt 

DPS (Rmb) 0.060 0.069 0.088 0.035 0.071 0.109 -40.4% 2.6% 23.1% 

YoY (%) (14.9) 16.4 27.6 (49.3) 100.4 53.1 -34.4ppt 84ppt 25.5ppt 


Operating Margin 14.4 15.8 15.9 12.7 15.5 15.2 -1.7ppt -0.3ppt -0.7ppt 

Net Profit Margin 2.9 3.0 3.1 1.9 3.4 4.2 -1ppt 0.4ppt 1ppt 

ROE 5.7 5.9 7.1 3.8 6.9 9.9 -1.9ppt 1.1ppt 2.8ppt 

Net Debt/Equity 381.3 399.1 405.1 392.0 401.1 400.7 10.7ppt 1.9ppt -4.4ppt 



25 

20 

15 

10 

5 

0 

2007/3 

30 (X) 

2008/3 

2009/3 

Datang 

2010/3 

2011/3 



Datang PER band 


4.0 (X) 

3.5 

3.0 

2.5 

2.0 

1.5 

1.0 

0.5 

0.0 

Datang 



Datang P/B band 


2007/3 

2008/3 

2009/3 

2010/3 

2011/3 




Financial Statements and Ratios of Datang INTL Power (00991 HK) 




Others 2,511 3,838 4,364 4,994 5,746 

Feul Cost-Power (22,147) (32,143) (40,437) (46,226) (60,205) Non-current Assets 167,483 193,024 211,120 226,252 241,358 

Repairs and Maintenance (1,809) (1,898) (2,178) (2,335) (2,662) 

Depreciation (7,522) (7,382) (8,334) (9,097) (9,727) Cash and Equivalent 1,506 3,443 6,136 3,441 4,519 

Staff Cost (1,822) (2,048) (2,141) (2,440) (2,671) Trust to Associates 17 100 150 225 338 

Other Tax (382) (395) (479) (559) (696) Other Receivables 6,575 4,102 4,625 5,395 6,726 

Fuel Cost-Coal Sales (4,860) (2,694) (1,072) (1,233) (1,418) Inventory 1,841 4,012 4,524 5,277 6,578 

Others (2,755) (4,908) (5,105) (5,584) (7,019) Trade Receivable 6,635 8,159 9,201 10,732 13,378 

Opt. Expenses (41,298) (51,469) (59,747) (67,474) (84,398) Current Assets 16,665 19,892 24,721 25,150 31,621 

Opt. Profit 6,645 9,204 8,676 12,332 15,090 Total Assets 184,224 212,915 235,841 251,402 272,979 

Gain from Associates 409 719 808 926 1,036 Trade Payable 14,040 18,930 19,877 20,870 21,914 

Interest Income 33 38 71 126 73 Short-term Borrowing 19,569 19,375 16,368 17,343 18,717 

Interest Expense (4,111) (5,373) (6,802) (8,636) (9,359) Curr. Portion of LT Debt 7,367 14,810 16,175 18,359 19,282 

Other income/expense 155 112 19 0 0 Tax Payable 381 1,166 1,315 1,533 1,911 

PBT 3,131 4,700 2,771 4,748 6,840 Other shortterm lib 37 2 1 2 4 

Current Liabilities 41,394 54,283 53,735 58,108 61,828 

Taxation (615) (871) (554) (1,044) (1,642) 

PAT 2,517 3,829 2,217 3,703 5,198 Long-term Debt 99,507 109,585 122,133 128,729 140,170 

Deferred Tax Liability 324 439 386 383 403 

Minority Interest (980) (1,259) (910) (1,000) (1,060) Others 3,701 3,723 3,836 5,697 8,200 

Net Profit 1,537 2,570 1,307 2,703 4,139 Non-current Liability 109,982 120,199 135,873 144,321 158,283 

EPS (Basic) 0.130 0.211 0.101 0.203 0.311 Share Capital 11,780 12,310 13,310 13,310 13,310 

Dividend 862 932 457 946 1,449 Reserves 12,692 15,344 24,586 26,831 30,024 

DPS 0.070 0.070 0.035 0.071 0.109 Total Equity 26,123 30,850 37,896 40,142 43,334 



Total Liability and Equity 184,224 212,915 235,841 251,402 272,979 

2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F BVPS 2.218 2.506 2.847 3.016 3.256 

EBITDA Margin % 30.7 28.7 26.1 28.0 26.0 


Operating Profit Margin % 13.9 15.2 12.7 15.5 15.2 Year end Dec (RMB m) 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 

Net Profit Margin % 3.2 4.2 1.9 3.4 4.2 

Dividend Payout Ratio % 53.7 33.2 35.0 35.0 35.0 Cash Inflow from Operation 12,842 18,353 16,159 20,357 23,576 

Inventory Days 32.8 33.2 38.5 38.7 35.9 Tax Payment (1,130) (881) (554) (1,044) (1,642) 

Payable Days 405.2 221.1 161.3 133.1 109.3 Interest Received 33 38 71 126 73 

Growth (%) 

Operating Cash Flow 11,745 17,510 15,676 19,438 22,008 

2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F Incr. in Deposit < 3 Months 30 0 0 0 0 

Capital Investments (27,489) (22,717) (22,000) (20,000) (20,000) 

Turnover 29.9 26.6 12.8 16.6 24.7 Dividend Received 345 264 265 265 266 

EBITDA 41.4 18.2 2.4 25.3 15.6 Investing Cash Flow (28,575) (24,788) (24,114) (22,178) (22,371) 

Operating Profit 129.7 38.5 (5.7) 42.1 22.4 

Net Profit 105.1 67.2 (49.1) 106.8 53.1 Incr. In Borrowings 107,477 78,448 83,877 75,923 86,668 

Dividend (36.4) 0.0 (49.3) 100.4 53.1 Debt Repayment (87,007) (63,252) (68,370) (65,085) (71,403) 

Interest Ass. With LT Debt (6,621) (7,238) (6,802) (8,636) (9,359) 

Valuation 

Financing Cash Flow 13,258 9,193 11,131 44 1,441 

2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 

Net Cash Incr./(Decr.) (3,572) 1,915 2,693 (2,696) 1,078 

EV/Sales (X) 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.7 Cash b/f 5,078 1,506 3,443 6,136 3,441 

EV/EBITDA (X) 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.7 Cash c/f 1,506 3,443 6,136 3,441 4,519 

P/E (X) 15.5 9.6 20.0 10.0 6.5 

P/Opt. CFPS (X) 2.0 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.2 

P/BVPS (X) 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 

ROE % 5.9 9.0 3.8 6.9 9.9 

ROA % 0.9 1.3 0.6 1.1 1.6 

ROC % 5.5 6.2 5.1 6.6 7.5 


2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 

Net Debt/Equity 4.8 4.5 3.9 4.0 4.0 

Long-term Debt/Equity 4.1 4.0 3.6 3.7 3.7 








Company Report: Huadian Power (01071 HK) Leo Wu 吴逸超 

公司报告:华电国际 (01071 HK) 

+86 755 23976871 


“Neutral”, TP Revised Down 

“中性”,目标价下调 



down 20RMB/t in 2012, the FY12 EPS of Huadian will be 258.3% higher than 


adversely to Huadian, the FY12 EPS will be cut 258.3%. We think this shows 

that the profitability of Huadian Power is of extreme uncertainty and the 

potential volatility of the earnings is really high. 



estimates are RMB-0.005, RMB0.124 and RMB0.200, respectively. The 



� Revise down TP to HK$1.54 and maintain ‘Neutral’ rating. The company is 

currently trading at 9.76x FY12 PER based on our estimates. We slightly 

revise up our TP to HK$1.54, which represents 10.0x of FY12 PER and 6.3x 



均秦皇岛 5,500 大卡现货价降 20 元/吨,华电国际的 2012 年 EPS 将比我们的基础情景高 


我们认为这显示了华电国际的盈利能力及其不稳定以及潜在的业绩波动相当高。 


和 8.6%。我们目前的 2011-13 年 EPS 预测分别为人民币-0.005,0.124 以及 0.200。2012 



� 下调目标价至 1.54 港元,维持“中性”评级。基于我们的盈利预测,公司目前股价相当于 

9.76 倍的 2012 年市盈率。我们上调了目标价至 1.54 港元,相当于 10.0 倍 2012 年市盈率 

以及 6.3 倍的 2013 年市盈率。潜在股价升幅为 2.7%。 

Year End 

年结 

Turnover 

收入 

Net Profit 

股东净利 

EPS 

每股净利 

EPS 




Maintained 






股价表现 

40.0 

30.0 

20.0 

10.0 

0.0 

(10.0) 

(20.0) 

(30.0) 

(40.0) 

% of return 


HSI Index HUADIAN POWER INTL CORP-H 


股价变动 


PER 

市盈率 

BPS 


1 M 

1 个月 

3 M 

3 个月 

1 Y 

1 年 

Abs. % 


4.2 30.4 0.7 



(0.2) 24.6 16.7 


1.45 1.30 



1.46 

PBR 

市净率 

DPS 

每股股息 

Yield 

股息率 

ROE 



2009A 36,450 1,157 0.190 (144.7) 6.3 2.376 0.5 0.039 3.2 8.4 

2010A 45,198 170 0.025 (86.8) 47.8 2.389 0.5 0.000 0.0 1.1 

2011F 55,370 -32 (0.005) (118.9) (253.7) 2.701 0.4 0.000 0.0 (0.2) 

2012F 69,499 843 0.124 (2,731.0) 9.6 2.826 0.4 0.031 2.6 4.5 

2013F 82,562 1,352 0.200 60.4 6.0 2.994 0.4 0.060 5.0 6.9 

Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 6,771.1 Major shareholder 大股东 China Huadian 47.21% 








The EPS of Huadian Power International (“Huadian”) will continue to be extremely sensitive to tariff change and coal 

price change. Based on our analysis, in an optimistic scenario where the average on-grid tariff (VAT inclusive) up 

10RMB/MWh and average QHD 5,500 Kcal spot price down 20RMB/t in 2012, the FY12 EPS of Huadian will be 258.3% 

higher than that in our base scenario. On the other side, when both key factors change adversely to Huadian, the FY12 EPS 

will be cut 258.3%. We think this shows that the profitability of Huadian Power is of extreme uncertainty and the potential 

volatility of the earnings is really high. 

We revise down the FY11 EPS estimates by 115.3%, while revise up the FY12-13 EPS estimates by 1.6% and 8.6%. Our 

current FY11-13 EPS estimates are RMB-0.005, RMB0.124 and RMB0.200, respectively. The improving EPS in FY12 and 


Revise down TP to HK$1.54 and maintain ‘Neutral’ rating. The company is currently trading at 9.76x FY12 PER based on 

our estimates. We slightly revise up our TP to HK$1.54, which represents 10.0x of FY12 PER and 6.3x FY13 PER. The 

potential uptick is 2.7%. 

Table: Sensitivity analysis of tariff and coal price for FY12 EPS of Huadian Power (1) 


(20) 

FY12 Avg tariff (VAT Incl.) = 0 (RMB/MWh) 

(10) 0 10 20 

(50) 0.1172 0.2974 0.4777 0.6579 0.8381 

(40) 0.0466 0.2268 0.4070 0.5873 0.7675 

(30) (0.0241) 0.1562 0.3364 0.5166 0.6969 

(20) (0.0947) 0.0855 0.2658 0.4460 0.6262 

FY12 Avg QHD 


incl.) = 840 

(10) 

0 

(0.1654) 

(0.2360) 

0.0149 

(0.0558) 

0.1951 

0.1245 

0.3753 

0.3047 

0.5556 

0.4849 

(RMB/t) 

10 (0.3066) (0.1264) 0.0538 0.2341 0.4143 

20 (0.3773) (0.1971) (0.0168) 0.1634 0.3436 

30 (0.4479) (0.2677) (0.0875) 0.0928 0.2730 

40 (0.5186) (0.3383) (0.1581) 0.0221 0.2024 

50 (0.5892) (0.4090) (0.2287) (0.0485) 0.1317 


Table: Sensitivity analysis of tariff and coal price for FY12 EPS of Huadian Power (2) 


(20) 

FY12 Avg tariff (VAT Incl.) = 0 (RMB/MWh) 

(10) 0 10 20 

(50) -5.8% 139.0% 283.8% 428.6% 573.4% 

(40) -62.6% 82.2% 227.0% 371.8% 516.6% 

(30) -119.3% 25.5% 170.3% 315.1% 459.9% 

(20) -176.1% -31.3% 113.5% 258.3% 403.1% 

FY12 Avg QHD 


incl.) = 840 

(10) 

0 

-232.9% 

-289.6% 

-88.0% 

-144.8% 

56.8% 

0.0% 

201.6% 

144.8% 

346.4% 

289.6% 

(RMB/t) 

10 -346.4% -201.6% -56.8% 88.0% 232.9% 

20 -403.1% -258.3% -113.5% 31.3% 176.1% 

30 -459.9% -315.1% -170.3% -25.5% 119.3% 

40 -516.6% -371.8% -227.0% -82.2% 62.6% 

50 -573.4% -428.6% -283.8% -139.0% 5.8% 


Table: Scenario Analysis of Huadian for FY12 

Huadian 





0.124 



0.446 




(0.197) 



-258.3% 





Table: Key assumptions of the operating factors of Huadian Power 

Key Assumptions 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 3-yr CAGR 

Consolidated capacity (MW) 25,659 30,366 34,621 36,720 12.7% 

YoY 11.7% 18.3% 14.0% 6.1% 

Capacity by equity share (MW) 22,435 25,636 29,280 30,999 11.4% 

YoY 10.1% 14.3% 14.2% 5.9% 

Weighted average capacity (MW) 24,771 27,926 32,342 35,596 12.8% 

YoY 14.1% 12.7% 15.8% 10.1% 

Utilization hour of coal-fired plants 5,539 5,650 5,819 5,994 

YoY 11.8% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 

Electricity production (Bn KWh) 130.3 153.4 180.7 204.4 16.2% 

YoY 21.2% 17.7% 17.8% 13.1% 

In house usage (%) 6.94% 6.60% 6.50% 6.40% 


Electricity sales (Bn KWh) 121.3 143.5 169.3 191.8 16.5% 

YoY 21.4% 18.3% 18.0% 13.2% 

Average tariff (VAT excl.) (RMB/MWh) 350.4 365.8 387.2 404.3 4.9% 

YoY 2.5% 4.4% 5.8% 4.4% 


YoY 21.1% 5.9% 5.5% 7.2% 


YoY -27.6% 0.3% 6.9% -3.5% 


Sensitivity analysis of key factors to Huadian Power's earnings 


EPS 

2012F 2013F 

Current estimates (0.005) 0.124 0.200 


△ -318.9% 12.2% 7.9% 


△ -4015% 145% 103% 

Avg QHD 5,500 Kcal Spot Price up 10RMB/t (0.079) 0.054 0.117 

△ 1566% -57% -41% 

Avg Effective Borrowing Rate up 25bps (0.039) 0.095 0.168 

△ 


730% -24% -16% 

Figure: Dark Spread Forecast of Huadian Power 

RMB/MWh 

140.0 

120.0 

100.0 

80.0 

60.0 

40.0 

20.0 

0.0 

2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 


Dark Spread of Huadian YoY 

10% 

5% 

0% 

-5% 

-10% 

-15% 

-20% 

-25% 

-30% 





Table: Earning adjustments of Huadian Power 

Old Estimates New Estimates YoY/ppt 

2011F 2012F 2013F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2011F 2012F 2013F 

Operations 

Consolidated Capacity (MW) 29,706 33,961 36,060 30,366 34,621 36,720 2.2% 1.9% 1.8% 

YoY (%) 15.8 14.3 6.2 18.3 14.0 6.1 2.6ppt -0.3ppt -0.1ppt 

Utilization Hour of Thermal Plants 5,594 5,650 5,707 5,650 5,819 5,994 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 

YoY % 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 1ppt 2ppt 2ppt 

Total electricity production (Bn KWh) 152 172 191 153 181 204 0.7% 5.1% 6.9% 

YoY % 16.9 12.9 11.2 17.7 17.8 13.1 0.9ppt 4.9ppt 2ppt 

Electricity Sales (Bn KWh) 142 161 179 143 169 192 0.9% 5.3% 7.1% 

YoY (%) 17.2 13.1 11.3 18.3 18.0 13.2 1.1ppt 4.9ppt 2ppt 


Sales 54,659 63,448 72,416 55,370 69,499 82,562 1.3% 9.5% 14.0% 

YoY (%) 20.9 16.1 14.1 22.5 25.5 18.8 1.6ppt 9.4ppt 4.7ppt 

Coal Cost 40,758 46,158 52,234 41,035 50,350 61,708 0.7% 9.1% 18.1% 

YoY (%) 23.7 13.2 13.2 24.5 22.7 22.6 0.8ppt 9.5ppt 9.4ppt 

Operating Profit 2,404 5,256 7,610 1,808 5,037 5,711 -24.8% -4.2% -25.0% 

YoY (%) 39.3 118.6 44.8 4.7 178.6 13.4 -34.6ppt 60.1ppt -31.4ppt 

Financial Cost, net 4,115 4,833 5,571 4,111 4,849 5,058 -0.1% 0.3% -9.2% 

YoY (%) 25.1 17.4 15.3 25.0 18.0 4.3 -0.1ppt 0.5ppt -10.9ppt 

Profit Before Tax 209 1,382 2,074 (85) 1,056 1,694 -140.7% -23.6% -18.3% 

YoY (%) 3.1 562.5 50.0 (142.0) (1,342.8) 60.4 -145.1ppt -1905.3ppt 10.4ppt 

Tax 52 346 519 (0) 3 4 -100.4% -99.2% -99.2% 

YoY (%) (55.2) 562.5 50.0 (100.2) (1,342.8) 60.4 -44.9ppt -1905.3ppt 10.4ppt 

Net Profit 209 829 1,245 (32) 843 1,352 -115.3% 1.6% 8.6% 

YoY (%) 23.2 296.4 50.0 (118.9) (2,731.0) 60.4 -142ppt -3027.4ppt 10.4ppt 

EPS (RMB) 0.031 0.122 0.184 (0.005) 0.124 0.200 -115.3% 1.6% 8.6% 

YoY (%) 23.2 296.4 50.0 (118.9) (2,731.0) 60.4 -142ppt -3027.4ppt 10.4ppt 

Recurring EPS (RMB) (0.142) 0.036 0.184 (0.175) 0.124 0.200 23.0% 247.6% 8.6% 

YoY (%) 119.3 (125.1) 413.3 1.7 (1.7) 0.6 -117.6ppt 123.4ppt -412.6ppt 

DPS (RMB) 0.000 0.031 0.055 0.000 0.031 0.060 n.a. 1.6% 8.6% 

YoY (%) n.a. n.a. 80.1 n.a. n.a. 0.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. 


Gross Margin 25.4 27.3 27.9 25.9 27.6 25.3 0.5ppt 0.3ppt -2.6ppt 

Operating Margin 4.4 8.3 10.5 3.3 7.2 6.9 -1.1ppt -1ppt -3.6ppt 

Net Profit Margin 0.4 1.3 1.7 (0.1) 1.2 1.6 -0.4ppt -0.1ppt -0.1ppt 

ROE 1.2 4.4 6.3 (0.2) 4.5 6.9 -1.4ppt 0.1ppt 0.6ppt 

Net Debt/Equity 519.3 532.8 525.0 529.4 541.9 535.4 10.1ppt 9.1ppt 10.4ppt 



30 

25 

20 

15 

10 

5 

0 

2007/3 

(X) 

2008/3 

2009/3 

Huadian 

2010/3 

2011/3 



Huadian PER band 


2.5 

2.0 

1.5 

1.0 

0.5 

0.0 

2007/3 

(X) 

2008/3 

2009/3 

Huadian 

2010/3 



Huadian P/B band 


2011/3 








CIP 19,316 23,147 27,417 31,261 34,336 

Coal Cost (22,621) (32,959) (41,035) (50,350) (61,708) Others 8,863 16,409 18,094 20,442 23,157 

Maintenance (564) (640) (815) (996) (1,148) Non-current Assets 93,682 118,957 125,843 132,260 137,107 

Depreciation (4,120) (4,677) (5,476) (5,540) (5,556) 

Staff Cost (1,765) (1,949) (2,421) (2,899) (3,228) Cash and Equivalent 1,242 1,236 712 1,072 54 

Others (1,228) (1,377) (1,687) (2,169) (2,453) Deposit and Prepayment 1,323 2,531 2,658 3,309 4,060 

Administration (1,117) (1,179) (1,336) (1,558) (1,652) Trade Receivable 3,583 3,981 4,956 6,170 7,571 

Other Tax (242) (179) (183) (222) (256) Inventory 1,346 1,760 2,192 2,689 3,296 

Opt. Expenses (32,178) (43,471) (53,563) (64,462) (76,851) Others 63 97 81 102 121 

Current Assets 7,558 9,605 10,598 13,342 15,101 

Opt. Profit 4,271 1,726 1,808 5,037 5,711 

Total Assets 101,240 128,561 136,441 145,601 152,208 

Other Revenue 119 932 909 0 0 

Investment Income 25 505 631 0 0 Account Payable 5,079 7,740 8,127 8,533 8,960 

Financial Exp. (2,948) (3,289) (4,111) (4,849) (5,058) Short-term Borrowing 24,360 34,574 37,563 40,446 41,983 

Profit from JVs and Ass. 217 328 678 868 1,042 Other Prepayment 2,753 4,283 4,497 4,722 4,958 

Tax Payable 24 64 78 98 117 

PBT 1,683 202 (85) 1,056 1,694 Current Liabilities 32,216 46,660 50,265 53,799 56,018 

Taxation (101) (117) 0 (3) (4) 

Long-term Borrowing 45,410 55,506 59,991 64,315 66,621 

PAT 1,582 86 (85) 1,053 1,690 Deferred Tax 1,282 2,068 2,534 3,180 3,778 

Minority Interest (425) 84 53 (211) (338) Non-current Liabilities 47,719 60,038 62,525 67,495 70,399 

Net Profit 1,157 170 (32) 843 1,352 Share Capital 6,771 6,771 7,371 7,371 7,371 

Net Profit (Recurring) 1,022 (440) (1,187) 843 1,352 Reserves 9,315 9,405 10,920 11,763 12,905 

Common Equity 16,086 16,176 18,292 19,134 20,276 

EPS 0.1902 0.0251 (0.0047) 0.1245 0.1997 Minority Interest 5,219 5,687 5,360 5,173 5,516 

EPS (Recurring) 0.1680 (0.0650) (0.1753) 0.1245 0.1997 Total Equity & Liabilities 101,240 128,561 136,441 145,601 152,208 

DPS 0.0390 0.0000 0.0000 0.0311 0.0599 BVPS 2.376 2.389 2.701 2.826 2.994 

Margin and Efficiency Cash Flow Statement 

2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 

EBITDA Margin (%) 24.0 18.1 17.2 16.5 14.9 Cash Sales 41,364 53,269 55,370 69,499 82,562 

Operating Margin (%) 11.7 3.8 3.3 7.2 6.9 Exp. Paid in Cash (34,576) (47,073) (48,087) (58,922) (71,295) 

Net Profit Margin (%) 3.2 0.4 (0.1) 1.2 1.6 Opt. Cash infow 6,788 6,196 7,284 10,577 11,266 

Inventory Days 25.2 17.2 17.6 17.7 17.7 Interest Paid (3,574) (3,978) (4,111) (4,849) (5,058) 

Receivable Days 27.8 30.5 29.5 29.2 30.4 Tax Paid (120) (146) 0 (3) (4) 

Payable Days 82.3 71.0 70.6 60.4 51.7 Operating Cash Flow 3,094 2,080 3,173 5,726 6,204 

Growth (%) 

Interest Received 26 22 27 34 41 

2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F Acquisition of Subsidiary, net (1,114) (1,982) (847) (1,070) (1,253) 

Other Acquisition Payment (1,920) (2,669) (1,377) (1,377) (1,377) 

Turnover 21.5 24.0 22.5 25.5 18.8 Prepaid Investment (1,723) (171) 0 0 0 

EBITDA 166.1 (6.7) 16.3 20.5 7.5 Purchase in PP&E (12,396) (13,469) (10,677) (9,609) (7,687) 

Operating Profit (799.7) (59.6) 4.7 178.6 13.4 Investing Cash Flow (17,187) (19,037) (13,550) (12,828) (11,135) 

Net Profit n.a. (85.3) n.a. n.a. 60.4 

Dividend n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 92.5 Borrowings 9,736 16,616 7,474 7,207 3,844 

Dividend Paid 0 (237) 0 0 (211) 

Valuation 

Financing Cash Flow 13,466 16,950 9,853 7,462 3,914 

2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 

Net Cash Increase (627) (6) (524) 360 (1,018) 

EV/Sales (X) 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.9 Cash b/f 1,869 1,242 1,236 712 1,072 

EV/EBITDA (X) 6.1 7.8 7.2 6.3 6.1 Cash c/f 1,242 1,236 712 1,072 54 

P/E (X) 6.4 48.4 (256.8) 9.8 6.1 

P/BVPS (X) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 

ROE (%) 8.4 1.1 (0.2) 4.5 6.9 

ROA (%) 1.2 0.1 (0.0) 0.6 0.9 

ROC (%) 5.2 1.7 1.6 4.1 4.4 

2009A 


2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 

Net Debt/Equity (x) 4.3 5.5 5.3 5.4 5.4 

Long-term Debt/Equity (x) 2.8 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.3 








你 

Company Report: China Power International (02380 HK) Leo Wu 吴逸超 

公司报告:中国电力 (02380 HK) 

+86 755 23976871 


“Accumulate”, Raise TP 

“收集”,调高目标价 



down 20RMB/t in 2012, the FY12 EPS of CPI will be 43.0% higher than that in 

our base scenario. On the other side, when both key factors change 

adversely to CPI, the FY12 EPS will be cut 43.0%. The hydro asset of CPI 

improved its stability of profitability. 


FY12-13 EPS estimates by 6.3% and 14.3%. We revise down the FY11 EPS 

estimates to RMB0.120, mainly because of lower hydro utilisation hour for 

FY11. On the other side, we revise up FY12-13 EPS to RMB0.196 and 

RMB0.258, representing a better dark spread expectation and hydro 

utilisation hour expectation in FY12-13. 

� Revise up TP to HK$2.66 and maintain ‘Accumulate’ rating. The company 

is currently trading at 11.4x FY11 PER and 7.0x FY12 PER based on our 

estimates. We revise up our TP to HK$2.66, which represents 11.0x of FY12 

PER and 8.4x FY13 PER. The potential uptick is 43.8%. 


均秦皇岛 5,500 大卡现货价降 20 元/吨,中国电力的 2012 年 EPS 将比我们的基础情景高 


中国电力的水电资产提高了盈利能力稳定性。 


和 14.3%。我们下调了 2011 年 EPS 预测至人民币 0.120,主要由于 2011 年较低的水电 

利用小时数。另外一方面,我们上调了 2012-13 年的 EPS 预测 0.196 以及 0.258,主要由 

于 2012-2013 年点火价差的改善以及水电利用小时的回升。 

� 上调目标价至 2.66 港元,维持“收集”评级。基于我们的盈利预测,公司目前股价相当于 

11.4 倍的 2011 年市盈率以及 7.0 倍的 2012 年市盈率。我们上调了目标价至 2.66 港元, 

相当于 11.0 倍 2012 年市盈率以及 8.4 倍的 2013 年市盈率。潜在股价升幅为 43.8%。 

Year End 

年结 

Turnover 

收入 

Net Profit 

股东净利 

EPS 

每股净利 

EPS 



Rating: Accumulate 

Maintained 

评级: 收集 (维持) 





股价表现 

40.0 

30.0 

20.0 

10.0 

0.0 

(10.0) 

(20.0) 

(30.0) 

(40.0) 

% of return 


HSI Index CHINA POWER INTERNATIONAL 


股价变动 


PER 

市盈率 

BPS 


1 M 

1 个月 

3 M 

3 个月 

1 Y 

1 年 

Abs. % 


14.2 22.5 23.6 



9.8 16.7 39.6 


1.77 1.65 



1.69 

PBR 

市净率 

DPS 

每股股息 

Yield 

股息率 

ROE 



2009A 11,018 519 0.142 n.a. 10.5 2.436 0.6 0.045 3.0 5.1 

2010A 14,622 667 0.131 (7.7) 11.3 2.396 0.6 0.045 3.0 5.4 

2011F 16,968 612 0.120 (8.2) 12.3 2.530 0.6 0.040 2.7 4.9 

2012F 21,028 999 0.196 63.2 7.6 2.686 0.6 0.065 4.4 7.5 

2013F 24,692 1,316 0.258 31.7 5.7 2.879 0.5 0.085 5.7 9.3 

Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 5,107.1 Major shareholder 大股东 China Power Investment 68.97% 


3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 3,060.4 FY11 Net gearing (%) FY11 净负债/股东资金(%) 314.6 






The EPS of China Power International (“CPI”) is less sensitive to coal price change and tariff change compared with 

Huaneng, Datang and Huadian, but still higher than CRP. Based on our analysis, in an optimistic scenario where the 

average on-grid tariff (VAT inclusive) up 10RMB/MWh and average QHD 5,500 Kcal spot price down 20RMB/t in 2012, the 

FY12 EPS of CPI will be 43.0% higher than that in our base scenario. On the other side, when both key factors change 

adversely to CPI, the FY12 EPS will be cut 43.0%. The hydro asset of CPI improved its stability of profitability. 

We revise down the FY11 EPS estimates by 19.5%, while revise up the FY12-13 EPS estimates by 6.3% and 14.3%. We 

revise down the FY11 EPS estimates to RMB0.120, mainly because of lower hydro utilisation hour for FY11. On the other side, 

we revise up FY12-13 EPS to RMB0.196 and RMB0.258, representing a better dark spread expectation and hydro utilisation 

hour expectation in FY12-13. 

Revise up TP to HK$2.66 and maintain ‘Accumulate’ rating. The company is currently trading at 11.4x FY11 PER and 7.0x 

FY12 PER based on our estimates. We revise up our TP to HK$2.66, which represents 11.0x of FY12 PER and 8.4x FY13 

PER. The potential uptick is 43.8%. 

Table: Sensitivity analysis of tariff and coal price for FY12 EPS of China Power INTL (1) 


(20) 


(10) 0 10 20 

(50) 0.185 0.234 0.283 0.332 0.381 

(40) 0.167 0.216 0.266 0.315 0.364 

(30) 0.150 0.199 0.248 0.297 0.346 

(20) 0.132 0.181 0.231 0.280 0.329 

2012 Avg QHD 


incl.) = 840 

(10) 

0 

0.115 

0.097 

0.164 

0.146 

0.213 

0.196 

0.262 

0.245 

0.311 

0.294 

(RMB/t) 

10 0.080 0.129 0.178 0.227 0.276 

20 0.062 0.111 0.161 0.210 0.259 

30 0.045 0.094 0.143 0.192 0.241 

40 0.027 0.076 0.126 0.175 0.224 

50 


0.010 0.059 0.108 0.157 0.206 

Table: Sensitivity analysis of tariff and coal price for FY12 EPS of China Power INTL (2) 



(20) (10) 0 10 20 

(50) -5.5% 19.6% 44.7% 69.9% 95.0% 

(40) -14.5% 10.7% 35.8% 60.9% 86.1% 

(30) -23.4% 1.7% 26.8% 52.0% 77.1% 

(20) -32.4% -7.2% 17.9% 43.0% 68.2% 

2012 Avg QHD 


incl.) = 840 

(10) 

0 

-41.3% 

-50.3% 

-16.2% 

-25.1% 

8.9% 

0.0% 

34.1% 

25.1% 

59.2% 

50.3% 

(RMB/t) 

10 -59.2% -34.1% -8.9% 16.2% 41.3% 

20 -68.2% -43.0% -17.9% 7.2% 32.4% 

30 -77.1% -52.0% -26.8% -1.7% 23.4% 

40 -86.1% -60.9% -35.8% -10.7% 14.5% 

50 


Table: Scenario Analysis of CPI for FY12 


-95.0% -69.9% -44.7% -19.6% 5.5% 

CPI 


Neutral Scenario 0.196 




0.280 




0.111 



-43.0% 





Table: Key assumptions of the operating factors for CPI 

Key Assumptions 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 3-yr CAGR (%) 

Avg Consolidated Thermal Capacity (MW) 7,060 7,160 8,110 8,860 7.9% 

YoY 1.4% 13.3% 9.2% 

Avg Consolidated Hydro Capacity (MW) 3,427 3,521 3,766 4,321 8.0% 

YoY 2.7% 7.0% 14.7% 

Thermal Capacity Utilization Hour 5,329 5,809 5,983 6,162 5.0% 

YoY 9.0% 3.0% 3.0% 

Hydro Capacity Utilization Hour 3,190 2,900 3,200 3,200 

YoY -9.1% 10.3% 0.0% 

Total electricity production (Bn KWh) 48.56 51.80 60.57 68.42 12.1% 

YoY 6.7% 16.9% 13.0% 

In house usage (%) 5.26% 5.26% 5.11% 5.01% 

Change ppt 0ppt -0.16ppt -0.1ppt 

Total electricity sales (Bn KWh) 46.00 49.07 57.48 65.00 12.2% 

YoY 6.7% 17.1% 13.1% 

Avg Thermal Tariff (RMB/MWh) 328.3 349.6 371.0 388.1 5.7% 

YoY 6.5% 6.1% 4.6% 


YoY % 10.2% 6.9% 6.4% 


YoY % -2.8% 3.9% -0.7% 

Avg Hydro Tariff (RMB/MWh) 258.7 292.9 303.6 312.1 6.5% 

YoY 13.2% 3.6% 2.8% 

Source: Company, Guotai Junan International 

Table: EPS Sensitivity Analysis to China Power International to different factors 


EPS 

2012F 2013F 



△ 1.7% 1.3% 1.1% 


△ 34.1% 25.1% 21.8% 


△ -11.7% -8.9% -7.9% 


△ 


-9.1% -6.0% -4.9% 

Figure: Dark Spread Forecast of China Power INTL 

RMB/MWh 

105.0 

100.0 

95.0 

90.0 

85.0 

80.0 

2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 


Dark Spread of CPI YoY 

40% 

30% 

20% 

10% 

0% 

-10% 

-20% 





Table: Estimation adjustments of China Power INTL 

Old Est. New Est. %/ppt 

2011F 2012F 2013F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2011F 2012F 2013F 

Operations 

Avg Consolidated Thermal Capacity (MW) 7,360 8,260 8,860 7,160 8,110 8,860 -2.7% -1.8% 0.0% 

YoY 4.2% 12.2% 7.3% 1.4% 13.3% 9.2% -2.8ppt 1ppt 2ppt 

Thermal Capacity Utilization Hour 5,809 5,925 5,984 5,809 5,983 6,162 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 

YoY 9.0% 2.0% 1.0% 9.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0ppt 1ppt 2ppt 

Avg Consolidated Hydro Capacity (MW) 3,521 3,766 4,321 3,521 3,766 4,321 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 

YoY 3% 7% 15% 3% 7% 15% 0ppt 0ppt 0ppt 

Hydro Capacity Utilization Hour 3,200 3,200 3,200 2,900 3,200 3,200 -9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 

YoY 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% -9.1% 10.3% 0.0% -9.4ppt 10.3ppt 0ppt 

Total electricity production (Bn KWH) 51.2 61.0 66.8 49.1 60.6 68.4 -4.2% -0.7% 2.4% 

YoY 11.3% 12.9% 9.6% 6.7% 16.9% 13.0% -4.6ppt 4ppt 3.4ppt 

Electricity Sales (Kwh'bn) 51.2 57.8 63.5 49.1 57.5 65.0 -4.2% -0.6% 2.4% 

YoY 11.3% 12.9% 9.7% 6.7% 17.1% 13.1% -4.6ppt 4.2ppt 3.3ppt 


Total Revenue 17,434 20,297 22,735 16,968 21,028 24,692 -2.7% 3.6% 8.6% 

YoY (%) 19.2 16.4 12.0 16.0 23.9 17.4 -3.2ppt 7.5ppt 5.4ppt 


YoY (%) 21.0 17.8 16.5 10.2 33.9 17.1 -10.8ppt 16.1ppt 0.5ppt 


YoY (%) 6.6 25.8 22.0 -15.4 66.3 32.2 -22ppt 40.5ppt 10.3ppt 

Net Profit 760 940 1,151 612 999 1,316 -19.5% 6.3% 14.3% 

YoY (%) 14.0 23.7 22.4 -8.2 63.2 31.7 -22.2ppt 39.5ppt 9.3ppt 

EPS (RMB) 0.149 0.184 0.225 0.120 0.196 0.258 -19.5% 6.3% 14.3% 

YoY (%) 14.0 23.7 22.4 -8.2 63.2 31.7 -22.2ppt 39.5ppt 9.3ppt 

DPS (RMB) 0.049 0.061 0.074 0.040 0.065 0.085 -19.5% 6.3% 14.3% 

YoY (%) 9.1 23.7 22.4 -12.1 63.2 31.7 -21.2ppt 39.5ppt 9.3ppt 


Operating Margin 17.8 18.0 18.7 16.6 18.0 17.9 -1.1ppt 0ppt -0.8ppt 

Net Profit Margin 4.4 4.6 5.1 3.6 4.8 5.3 -0.8ppt 0.1ppt 0.3ppt 

ROE 6.0 7.0 8.1 4.9 7.5 9.3 -1.1ppt 0.5ppt 1.1ppt 

Net Debt/Equity 309.6 305.1 297.7 314.6 307.4 295.0 5ppt 2.3ppt -2.8ppt 



20 (X) 

15 

10 

5 

0 

2007/3 

2008/3 

2009/3 

2010/3 

2011/3 

CPI 



CPI PER band 


2.0 (X) 

1.5 

1.0 

0.5 

0.0 

CPI 



CPI P/B band 


2007/3 

2008/3 

2009/3 

2010/3 

2011/3 





Income Statement 

Balance Sheet 

2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F Balance Sheet (Rmb'mn) 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 

Electricity Sales 10,937 14,437 16,806 20,872 24,537 Fixed Assets 41,754 44,950 48,996 52,027 54,466 

Other Income 81 185 162 155 155 Prepayments for Construction 965 1,837 1,805 1,771 1,544 

Total Revenue 11,018 14,622 16,968 21,028 24,692 Investment in Ass. 1,575 1,588 1,570 1,684 1,905 

Others 5,391 4,641 4,819 3,500 3,642 

Coal Cost (7,131) (8,293) (10,131) (12,647) (15,159) Non-current Assets 49,685 53,015 57,190 58,982 61,557 

Depreciation (1,046) (1,712) (1,854) (1,969) (2,061) 

Staff Cost (469) (747) (672) (835) (981) Inventory 265 336 361 487 571 

Maintenance (435) (480) (512) (617) (717) Trade Receivable 1,430 1,717 1,947 2,603 2,746 

Comsumables (182) (180) (173) (214) (255) Prepayment 690 717 963 1,082 1,321 

Other Opt. Cost (510) (780) (832) (975) (1,102) Cash and Equivalent 1,911 977 1,645 1,024 1,341 

Other Gains, Net 1 134 31 11 11 Others 226 28 1 1 1 

Impariment of Goodwill (127) 0 0 0 0 Current Assets 4,522 3,775 4,916 5,198 5,979 

Total Opt. Expenses (9,898) (12,059) (14,144) (17,245) (20,265) Total Assets 54,207 56,790 62,106 64,180 67,536 

Opt. Profit 1,120 2,563 2,824 3,783 4,427 Trade Payable 498 461 656 731 899 

Construction Cost Payable 1,298 1,059 1,200 1,017 915 

Financial Expense (669) (1,410) (1,732) (2,189) (2,379) Other Payables and Accrued Charges 807 897 832 928 1,141 

Gain from Associates & JV 123 94 (38) 160 270 Amounts Due to Group Companies 1,293 204 233 233 233 

Profit before Tax 574 1,246 1,054 1,753 2,319 Current Borrowing 6,230 9,097 9,529 10,135 10,532 

Others 296 345 218 250 301 

Taxation (22) (380) (242) (403) (533) Current Liabilities 10,422 12,063 12,668 13,294 14,022 

Profit after Tax 552 866 812 1,350 1,785 

Non-current Borrowing 27,943 28,973 32,764 33,048 34,178 

Minority Interest (33) (199) (200) (351) (470) Others 960 860 913 949 1,023 

Net Profit 519 667 612 999 1,316 Non-current Liabilities 28,903 29,833 33,677 33,998 35,201 


EPS (Basic) 0.142 0.131 0.120 0.196 0.258 Share Holder's Equity 12,438 12,238 12,919 13,716 14,702 

Dividend 230 230 202 330 434 

DPS 0.045 0.045 0.040 0.065 0.085 Total Liabilities and Equity 54,207 56,790 62,106 64,180 67,536 

BVPS 2.436 2.396 2.530 2.686 2.879 



2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 

EBITDA Margin % 19.8 29.6 27.8 27.6 26.4 Profit before Tax 574 1,246 1,054 1,753 2,319 

Operating Profit Margin % 10.2 17.5 16.6 18.0 17.9 Gain from Associates (128) (112) 17 (113) (221) 

Net Profit Margin % 4.7 4.6 3.6 4.8 5.3 Depreciation 1,046 1,712 1,854 1,969 2,061 

Dividend Payout % 31.8 34.5 33.0 33.0 33.0 Change in Working Capital 1,344 (600) (324) (743) (68) 

Inventory Days 19.6 13.2 12.6 12.2 12.7 Tax Payment (44) (165) (242) (403) (533) 

Receivable Days 46.5 39.3 39.4 39.5 39.5 Others 60 (544) (498) (537) (517) 

Payable Days 30.6 21.1 20.1 20.0 19.6 Operating Cash Flow 2,852 1,538 1,861 1,926 3,040 

Growth (%) 

Payments for PP&E (2,019) (3,449) (4,398) (3,625) (3,150) 

2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F New Prepayments for Construction (626) (1,506) (1,326) (1,124) (1,012) 

Others 1,180 (1,160) (320) (300) 60 

Turnover 13.5 32.0 16.4 24.2 17.6 Investing Cash Flow (1,465) (6,116) (6,045) (5,049) (4,102) 

EBITDA 182.1 97.4 9.4 22.9 12.8 

Operating Profit (2,824.7) 128.8 10.2 33.9 17.1 New Borrowings, Net (789) 3,854 5,137 2,750 1,800 

Net Profit (175.3) 28.5 (8.2) 63.2 31.7 Dividends 0 (230) (230) (202) (330) 

EPS (Basic) (174.0) (7.7) (8.2) 63.2 31.7 Others (14) 20 (55) (45) (92) 

Dividend 0.0 0.0 (12.1) 63.2 31.7 Financing Cash Flow (802) 3,644 4,852 2,503 1,378 

Valuation 

Net Increase in Cash 584 (933) 667 (620) 316 

2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F Cash b/f 1,327 1,911 977 1,645 1,024 

Cash c/f 1,911 977 1,645 1,024 1,341 

EV/Sales (X) 3.2 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.7 

EV/EBITDA (X) 16.1 8.4 8.5 7.0 6.3 

P/E (X) 9.7 10.5 11.4 7.0 5.3 

P/Opt. CFPS (X) 1.8 4.5 3.8 3.6 2.3 

P/BVPS (X) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 

ROE % 5.1 5.4 4.9 7.5 9.3 

ROA % 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.6 2.0 

ROC % 3.4 5.1 5.1 6.4 7.2 


2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 

Net Debt/Equity (X) 2.6 3.0 3.1 3.1 2.9 

Long-term Debt/Equity (X) 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.3 








Company Rating Definition 

The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index 

Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months 

Rating Definition 

Buy Relative Performance >15%; 

or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. 

Accumulate Relative Performance is 5% to 15%; 

or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. 

Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; 

or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral. 

Reduce Relative Performance is -5% to -15%; 

or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. 

Sell Relative Performance 5%; 

or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable. 

Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; 

or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral. 

Underperform Relative Performance

Company Report: Sinotrans Shipping (00368 HK) - 国泰君安

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