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The Agrometeorology Australia (AMA) STIN model production forecasts were consistently more accurate
than ABARE forecasts, especially those based on the AMA seasonal outlook. In June this forecast was
close to the final result and was 6.4m tonnes lower than what ABARE was predicting. Mid-season
forecasts were slightly more optimistic, but final estimates in early October and November were all within
200 000 tonnes of the final ABARE estimate of 15.2 million tonnes.
Other estimates mentioned in the Australian Financial Review on the 21 st October were the NAB which
predicted 20 million tonnes of wheat in September (AMA, 17.8m) and 15.5m in October (AMA 15m).
Rabobank predicted 15.84m tonnes in October (AMA 15m). Some forecasters panicked in November
because of the drought and estimates went as low as 13 million tonnes.
New South Wales Wheat Production Forecasts in million tonnes compared to ABARES Predictions
Month
Agromet Aust
ABARE
AMA
ABARE
Seasonal
Outlook(median)
(million tonnes)
(difference in
million tonnes)
(difference in
million tonnes)
June 3.08 (5.55) 4.75 +0.99 (+3.46) +2.66
July 3.18 (4.95) +1.10 (+2.86)
August 2.92 (4.25) +0.83 (+2.16)
September 2.98 (3.40) 3.19 +0.89 (+1.31) +1.1
October 2.09 (2.22) 0 (+0.11)
November 1.98 (1.98) -0.11 (-0.11)
December 2.28 +0.19
February 2020 2.09 (final est.) -
Table 2. Agrometeorology Australia’s New South Wales wheat production forecasts during 2019 compared to
final ABARE forecast (in yellow)
Once again, the Agrometeorology Australia (AMA) STIN model production forecasts were consistently
more accurate than ABARE forecasts, especially those based on the AMA seasonal outlook. In June this
forecast was one and half million tonnes lower than what ABARE was predicting. Mid-season forecasts
were slightly optimistic, but final estimates in early October and November were all within 110 000 tonnes
of the final ABARE estimate of 2.09 million tonnes.