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Western Australian Wheat Production Forecasts in million tonnes compared to ABARES
Predictions
Month
Agromet Aust
ABARE
AMA
ABARE
Seasonal
Outlook(median)
(million tonnes)
(difference in
million tonnes)
(difference in
million tonnes)
June 5.70 (6.41) 8.2 -0.10 (+0.61) +2.4
July 8.75 (8.29) +2.95 (+2.49)
August 7.51 (7.46) +1.71 (+1.66)
September 7.10 (7.60) 8.05 +1.30 (+1.80) +2.25
October 5.52 (5.52) -0.28 (-0.28)
November 6.00 (6.00) +0.20 (+0.20)
December 6.0 +0.20
February 2020 5.80 (final est.) -
Table 2. Agrometeorology Australia’s Western Australian wheat production forecasts during 2019 compared
to the final ABARE forecast (in yellow)
Once again, the Agrometeorology Australia (AMA) STIN model production forecasts were consistently
more accurate than ABARE forecasts, especially those based on the AMA seasonal outlook. In June this
forecast was two and a half million tonnes lower than what ABARE was predicting and was close to the
final estimate. Mid-season forecasts were too optimistic, especially in July when a wet June combined with
a more optimistic outlook to cause yield predictions to jump. This was the only month five analogue years
was reduced down to three analogues and was a classic case of forecasts being distracted by short-term
noise rather than longer term signals. However, final estimates in early October and November were all
within 280 000 tonnes of the final ABARE estimate of 5.8 million tonnes.
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