Re-negotiating JCPOA: An Enduring Challenge for Biden Administration

Re-negotiating JCPOA: An enduring challenge for the Biden Administration
Democratic candidate Joe Biden’s win in US presidential election November 2020 has brought respite to the
breakdown of US’s bilateral & multilateral treaties and the global arms control architecture. President Trump,
after assuming Oval office in 2017, unilaterally has withdrawn the US out of many landmark treaties and Iran
nuclear agreement formally known as Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement was one among
them
The Deal:
JCPOA was the outcome of 12 years long herculean diplomatic efforts of heads of P5+1 (US, UK, Russia, France
and China & Germany) and Iran, their high-level ranking officials, nuclear experts along with IAEA and UN
officials. It was to bring an end to Iran’s covert nuclear weapons program and bring peace to the middle east.
JCPOA was negotiated & signed by P5+1 with Iran in July 2015 and came into effect from January 2016.
However, in May of 2018, President Trump abandoned JCPOA thwarting his predecessor efforts and reimposed
strictest sanctions on Iran. Since then the fate of the deal was in peril. Remaining P4+1 tried to shield Iran with
alternative mechanisms from the US’s sanctions but failed miserably. With no benefits in staying compliance with
the JCPOA, Iran started to breach one condition at a time since May 8, 2019.
The global nuclear community excited with Joe Biden’s victory are anxiously waiting for him to rejoin the deal.
However, unlike earlier JCPOA, the US is no longer in commanding position to set conditions for negotiations
for various reasons discussed below. If the Biden administration chooses to renegotiate the terms of the deal, it's
going to be an enduring challenge for them. And if they don't, it is more likely to be accepted by Iran. Considering
US intentions, they are likely to renegotiate the deal, and both the nations will try their best to hold onto their key
interests.

Challenges to Re-negotiate JCPOA:
Iran:
Since the US withdrawal from JCPOA in 2018, a lot happened with Iran. The reimposition of sanctions has
crippled its economy, spiked inflation levels and depreciated rials value to its lowest levels against the US dollar.
On top of that, the ongoing Coronavirus pandemic further added to Iran’s misery pushing its economy into a deep
recession. However, setting aside its serious domestic issues, Iran flaunting its defiance to the world by breaking
JCPOA conditions one at a time in response to US actions and allowing IAEA inspector to confirm its violations.
In a way, justifying its actions to the global community by holding the US accountable for the ongoing situation.
Having said that Iran likely to not give up on any of the following conditions if they come to the negotiating table
and they are;
• The economic and trade sanctions which it deems illegally imposed by the US in 2018 should be revoked
immediately without any conditions as a precursor to engage in talks
• Addition of its ballistic missile program and restrictions on its relations with proxies in the region is
strictly off-limits for negotiations.
• Immediate compensation for its losses incurred due to US sanctions.
• No meddling in its internal affairs or a push for regime change from western actors.
• The deal most likely to be signed only with the existing conditions negotiated under Obama
administrations while all the involved parties agreed to fulfil their obligations set in the deal.
• Will seek answers r the US involvement in General Qasem Soleimani assassination in January 2020 and
the killing of its top scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in December 2020.
USA:
The Biden administration which promised to reset US commitments and relations to a pre-Trump era with the rest
of the world including Iran will likely to push the following conditions at the renegotiation talks of JCPOA, and
they are;
• Iran, scaling back its JCPOA violations and returning to strict compliance as a precursor for initiating
talks.
• Push for the inclusion of Iran’s ballistic missile defence program and restriction on its relations with its
proxies in the region.
• Phase-wise withdrawal of sanctions on Iran including unfreezing of its assets
• Extension of sunset clauses of the deal
Firstly, both countries have to strike a balance without jeopardising each other’s key interests for a new deal to
happen. Apart from it, another layer of factors at the domestic, regional and international level likely to play a
critical role.

For Iran, with the US withdrawal from JCPOA in 2018, President Hassan Rouhani approval ratings, whom known
as the reformist and made the deal possible has plummeted to its lowest. In a few months, he is set to face the
presidential election with minimum to no chance of winning against a hardliner, who gained a lot of support post-
US withdrawal. Also, the US withdrawal has pushed Iran towards Russia and China. It's going to pose grave
security challenges in the region in years to come. Further, hardliners in Iran are inclined towards building strong
relations with Russia and China backed by various industry bodies due to their high-volume trade involvement
with China than western nations. A hardliner presidential candidate win in the upcoming election will drastically
reduce the prospects of negotiating a new deal. For the above reasons, it’s going to be an enduring challenge for
the Biden administration to bring Iran to the negotiating table unless Iran crumbled to domestic economic
pressures or tempted with the irrefutable economic package. However, a nightmare scenario appeals to me on the
horizon is that what if Iran decided to pursue its nuclear weapon aspirations bearing economic pressure for a few
more years as North Korea did. Then, how will the US and the regional powers react to it? Whether they will
launch a combined pre-emptive attack on Iran or make Iran a pariah state in the region, if not already? I trust these
perspectives are worth investing time for anyone interested in understanding geopolitics and security dynamics in
the middle east region.
Whereas for Biden administration the pressure is maintaining its special relations with Israel and other middle
east allies Saudi Arabi and UAE for re-entering into JCPOA. As these countries condemned president Obama
signing JCPOA deal and quoted it as a historic blunder. Applauded when President Trump exited the deal who
had similar concerns with the deal. The key concern for Israel and other opponents of the deal is that it doesn’t
include Iran’s Ballistic Missile program nor its relations with proxies in the region. Israel and others urge Biden
administration not to return to JCPOA while European allies, China and Russia want the US to rejoin and save
the deal.
Conclusion:
Based on the circumstantial information it’s hard for the US to renegotiate the deal, but the wisest move seems to
be re-joining the JCPOA, bringing Iran to the compliance and build upon from there to address other concerns.
The US and other powers must bring Iran to compliance to avoid a nuclear arms race in the highly volatile middle
east region even if it demands more than what the US and others are willing to offer. With each passing day, time
is ticking for global powers as Iran advancing towards fulfilling its nuclear aspiration is gaining momentum.