16.02.2021 Views

AMTX Ted Talk

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Welcome, sit down, prepare yourself to learn about the green energy

company that has a market cap trading 1.3X their fuckin yearly

revenue. CLSK is trading 61X their yearly revenue. Enough said. Lets

get into it.

Highlights:

AMTX

1. 20% stake in NEVO motors, which will be unveiling long haul trucking product line Q1

21.

2. Carbon Zero 1 will produce 23 million gallons of renewable jet fuel and diesel per year,

in which can be dropped into airplanes, ships, and trucks without engine modification.

3. February 1 opened bid proposal process for 2B offtake agreement for their fuels

4. January 22 received 16.8 million in grants for CZ1 from California.

5. Hand sanitizer product launch on Amazon begins February of 21.

6. CEO to present at investor conference March 1-3

Management:

CEO- Eric McAfee, founded 7 public companies which topped out at 4 million market value.

CFO- Todd Waltz, held senior financial management roles with Apple for 12 years.

Chart:


Company Overview:

AMTX is headquartered in California, and aims to create renewable fuels and biochemicals,

they have a 60 MGPY ethanol plant in California, and a 50 MGPY renewable chemical and fuel

plant in India. They also create many biochemicals used widely, as well as alcohol used for hand

sanitizer during the CV pandemic.

Fundamentals:

Market Cap- 180M

Float- 20M

Avg Vol 3m- 3.63M

Positives:

1. Recently had only 79k cash, but then received 16.8M in grants.

2. 140M yearly revenue before alternative fuel sales begin.

3. Institutions hold 11.7%, Hedge funds 14.6%, Insiders 23%.

4. Recent analyst price target of 15$.

NEVO:

On December 22, 2020 AMTX stated via press release that they have acquired 20% ownership

of NEVO motors. NEVO is currently operating in stealth mode, but plans to launch their product

line in Q1 21. NEVO plans to launch a patented range extender engine designed to meet low

and zero emissions vehicle standards. They are also scheduled to begin production in 2021, so

as soon as the launch occurs, we can expect production to begin as well.


Carbon Zero 1:

On January 15, 2021 AMTX was awarded a patent to produce BELOW zero carbon renewable

fuels. This technology uses agricultural waste wood feedstock and renewable energy (solar,

RNG, biogas) to create an energy dense liquid.

On February 4 th , 2021 AMTX stated that Koch will help execute Carbon Zero jet fuel projects.

They also stated within this press release that the jet fuel and diesel production plant will occur

at riverbank industrial complex, which is already built, allowing them to begin processes soon.

They expect to be able to produce 23 MGPY. We also learned that these jet fuels and diesels

will be designed to be zero carbon drop in fuels in which are usable in todays airplane, ship, and

truck fleets without any modification to their engines or infrastructure. HUGE. MASSIVE.

Literally they already have an built production plant, so they do not have to wait for

construction, and they are drop in fuels so they could be used today on airplane, ship, and truck

engines.


On January 22, 2021 AMTX received 16.8 million in grants from California, which will translate

to around 18 million extra yearly income and 0.75 EPS.

2 Billion Bid:

On February 1, 2021 AMTX opened a bid proposal for a 2 billion dollar offtake agreement for

their renewable jet fuel and diesel projects. Essentially, this means that companies who want to

buy AMTX fuel products have sent bids to provide AMTX with cash flow to help complete the

project, and eventually sell the products to them. This is huge, it shows that Carbon Zero 1 is

legitimate, with desirable technology, and other companies are betting on them becoming a

large player in the renewable fuel industry.


Hand Sanitizer and Amazon:

The CEO has stated they will be launching their hand

sanitizer on Amazon Q1, and someone caught this being

listen on Amazon, but it has since been taken down. This

hand sanitizer is nothing special, and not a main reason I

like the company, just another revenue stream.

India:

In 2019, AMTX was awarded a contract from 3 India government oil companies in order for

them to create biodiesel for their country. AMTX has a production plant in India, something

which GEVO has stated interest in doing as well. The diesel market in India is 25 Billion gallons,

and they plan to continue increasing the amount of biodiesel they want to incorporate into this

market. It is MASSIVE, that GEVO is interested in opening a plant in India, AMTX already has

one!!


GEVO vs AMTX:

1. They are different companies with different products, so keep that in mind, they can be

compared on the level of being in the same sector with generally similar products, but

these products are biologically different, so there will be variability in price,

effectiveness, and preferred usage.

2. AMTX is in India already, GEVO wants to get there.

3. GEVO has 1.5B in offtake agreements, AMTX has 2B, fairly close. Essentially these other

companies are showing their valuation of the pipelines.

4. GEVO has inked these 1.5B in revenue streams for the coming years, AMTX has not

finalized them yet.

5. GEVO has 530M in cash, AMTX has somewhere between 25-75M in cash if my

calculations are correct.

6. GEVO is in the process of building a production plant, won’t be in full scale production

until 2023, AMTX already has facility in California, just needs to begin production. Not to

mention they have been in production in India for 2 years now.

7. Prior to offtake agreements GEVO had revenue of 12 milllion per year, AMTX had

revenue around 140 million.

8. Post offtake agreements GEVO has an expected revenue pipeline for multiple years (not

yearly) of around 1.6 Billion. AMTX has an expected revenue pipeline for multiple years

(not yearly) of around 2.3 Billion IF THEIR OFFTAKE AGREEMENTS ARE FINALIZED. These

are all speculative numbers, as this revenue has yet to occur.

9. AMTX market cap is 180 million, GEVO market cap is 2.72 Billion.

Teddy’s .02:

1. They already have a biodiesel plant in India, and plan on to beginning production in

America. I assume they will be up and running soon, and producing revenue soon.

2. Jet fuel is huge, so their renewable jet fuel will likely lock down the offtake agreements

in the near future, giving them 2 BILLION in future revenue.

3. NEVO catalyst Q1 21 could be massive if NEVO unveils a great product, should send

AMTX ticker price.

4. As I’m writing this, the price has soared 20% today up to 9.15. So please wait for a small

dip to start a position.

5. I see this as a short term gainer, as well as long term. NEVO catalyst, closing of offtake

agreements, more grants coming in, production plant beginning production. Long term,

revenue from contracts and future plants.

6. The fact that their fuel can be dropped into aircrafts, ships, and truck fleets is massive.


Thank you all for coming to my Ted Talk! Remember

manage your own risk, buy on dips, don’t be a () and

panic sell, and TRUST THE DD.

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