Aintree Betting Guide (1)

THE

ORIGINAL

GRAND NATIONAL

FESTIVAL

BETTING GUIDE

by Paul Ferguson

2021

18 Big-Race Trends

PLUS FOUR-PAGE RANDOX HEALTH GRAND NATIONAL PREVIEW

IN ASSOCIATION WITH

Welcome

THE Cheltenham Festival might have been and

gone, but we have three fantastic days to look

forward at Aintree next month, and 18 of the 21

races – including the Grand National itself – are

covered in this, the 2021 Grand National Festival

Betting Guide.

Originally (and, as it has done for the past three

years), this formed part of the Cheltenham Festival

Betting Guide, but both myself and the team

at Weatherbys thought that we would make this

accessible to all, helping to enhance your Aintree

experience from the comfort of your living room.

Living no further than a pitching wedge away

from the fourth fence on the famous course, Aintree

is a meeting that, personally, means more than most

in the racing calendar. Given that we lost the fixture

last year, the anticipation is greater than ever,

despite the fact that crowds still won’t be able to

attend and that the city won’t be its usual vibrant

self during the three days (and nights). However,

it seems that owners will be back on course in

some shape or form, and with that in mind, there

is a chance that this year’s meeting could be more

competitive than ever, with several trainers suggesting

that some of their owners were prepared to skip

Cheltenham and wait for a trip to Liverpool.

As this was first written to feature in the Cheltenham

Festival Betting Guide, you will notice

that specific trends will relate to horses coming

from certain races at the festival. You can fill in

the blanks yourself for these, although I have written

an extensive Post-Cheltenham Update, where

I highlight those who caught the eye at Cheltenham,

with Aintree in mind. In addition to this, I have

touched upon another bunch of horses who have

been in action (away from Cheltenham) since the

Guide was published, including three horses who

are now prominent in the market for the Randox

Health-sponsored feature.

One of that trio is the Jonjo O’Neill-trained Cloth

Cap, who – at the time of writing – is trading as the

5-1 favourite, following his impressive victory at

Kelso. He was put up at 25-1 in the original Guide by

my colleague Michael White and I should add that

part of his preview has

been updated, due to

the fact that another

of his selections, The

Conditional, sadly

suffered a fatal injury

at Newbury after we went to print. We thought it

only right to remove any references to him, out of

respect for his connections.

If you bought the Guide originally, I would like to

thank you once again, and hope that you enjoy the

updated section. If this is your first time in viewing

these pages, we hope that it gives you a feel for

what the Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide has

to offer, although there is a lot more to the Cheltenham

section of the publication, including some

excellent editorial features from several highly-regarded

writers.

Followers of Donn McClean’s The Irish View

section would have been pleased to see his Gold Cup

preview highlight just the three horses who filled the

first three places, with his comments on winner reading

“You shouldn’t give up on Minella Indo as a Gold

Cup prospect. Bookmakers pushed him out to 16-1

and 20-1 following his defeat in the Irish Gold Cup,

but that may have been an over-reaction.”

A new addition to this year’s Guide was Breeding

Angles, written by Racing TV’s Jess Stafford.

She opted to focus on Jeremy, who had earlier only

sired the one festival winner back in 2013, but he

was responsible for no fewer than four winners at

the meeting this year, including 33-1 County Hurdle

winner Belfast Banter. “It is likely the amount of

Jeremys we will see at the Cheltenham Festival

will begin to dwindle beyond this year, so this may

just represent one of the last opportunities to celebrate

him.” Those who followed this advice would

certainly have been celebrating, with four winners

from 11 runners yielding a level-stake profit of

£39.84 (to a £1 stake).

Hopefully there will be much more of that next

year, but for now, enjoy the action from my ‘home

fixture’ and the concluding weeks of the season.

Paul Ferguson, Author

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2021

1

Contents

Welcome...............................................................................................1

Post-Cheltenham Update..............................................................4

Nicholls Has Aintree On His Mind............................................ 29

Randox Health Grand National Preview................................78

DAY ONE

Devenish Manifesto Novices’ Chase ........................................12

Doom Bar Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle................... 16

Betway Bowl Chase ..................................................................... 20

Betway Aintree Hurdle................................................................ 24

Randox Health Foxhunters’ Open Hunters’ Chase...........30

Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase.......................... 33

DAY TWO

Orrell Park Handicap Hurdle...................................................... 38

Betway Top Novices’ Hurdle...................................................... 41

Betway Mildmay Novices’ Chase ............................................44

Marsh Melling Chase ....................................................................50

Randox Health Topham Handicap Chase............................ 54

Doom Bar Sefton Novices’ Hurdle.......................................... 58

DAY THREE

Bridle Road Handicap Hurdle................................................... 64

Betway Mersey Novices’ Hurdle.............................................. 67

Doom Bar Maghull Novices’ Chase ........................................ 70

Ryanair Stayers Liverpool Hurdle.............................................73

Betway Handicap Chase............................................................. 76

Randox Health Grand National................................................. 84

Post-Cheltenham Update

BY PAUL FERGUSON

WITH Cheltenham all over for another year, the

focus now switches to Aintree’s Grand National

meeting. Plenty of water has gone under the

bridge since the publication of this year’s Cheltenham

Festival Betting Guide, so this feature aims

to plug some of those gaps. As well as highlighting

‘eye-catchers’ from Cheltenham, who could go

on to Aintree next month, I will touch upon other

horses who have been in action since we went to

print, and might have skipped the festival with a

trip to Liverpool in mind.

The festival – to a (very) large extent – was dominated

by the Irish, and given the cost of travelling

this year, I would be surprised if too many ventured

back so quickly, especially with Punchestown on

the horizon. I expect the Irish challenge for Aintree

to be made up (mainly) of horses who avoided a

trip to Cheltenham.

CHELTENHAM NOTEBOOK

DAY ONE

THERE didn’t appear to be too many pointers

towards Aintree in this year’s Supreme Novices’

Hurdle (often the placed horses from that race

are targeted at Aintree), but Shishkin, who ran

out a thoroughly convincing winner of the Arkle

might well attempt to complete the double. Nicky

Henderson suggested that his unbeaten novice

could head to Aintree, and should he line up in

the Maghull Novices’ Chase on Grand National

day, he will be bidding to provide the trainer with

a third win in the race. Sprinter Sacre completed

the Arkle-Maghull double for the stable in 2012, and

the past three Arkle winners to have run in the race

(going back to 2008) have followed up. If he does

take his chance, the seven-year-old will scare away

the majority of the opposition, so will likely be sent

off at prohibitive odds in what would probably be

no more than a glorified lap of honour.

Fourth home in the Arkle, Allmankind is likely to

be well-suited to the Mildmay course, and should

Henderson opt not to run Shishkin, the Henry

VIII winner could step forward. His front-running

tactics work well over fences on this track, but

he will need to bounce back from what appeared

to be quite a hard race (something that always

has to be considered, when backing Cheltenham

runners at Aintree just three weeks later). The form

of his earlier victory in the Kingmaker at Warwick

was given a boost the following day, when the

runner-up, Sky Pirate, won the Grand Annual from

a mark of 152.

SHISHKIN

4 Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2021

In the next race on the card (the Ultima Handicap

Chase), Kim Bailey’s Happygolucky shaped

well in second, from a mark of 147. Upped 2lbs by

the handicapper, he is now likely to be forced back

into open novice company, and could well take his

chance in the Grade 1 Mildmay Novices’ Chase on

day two. His jumping could have been sharper –

particularly down the far side – and I suspect that

he will have learned plenty for this experience.

Given his liking for good ground and the fact that

this was his first start in just over three months,

there could be more to come.

Despite being pulled-up in the concluding

National Hunt Chase, Ofalltheginjoints ran reasonably

well for a long way, and from a mark of 141

(dropped 2lbs), he would be of interest in the

3m handicap chase, which precedes the Grand

National. He wasn’t too far away at the third last

and coming back in trip is sure to be beneficial. He

ran a sound race on his chase debut over courseand-distance

back in October, and there could be

a decent handicap in him, whether it be this spring

or early next season.

DAY TWO

ALTHOUGH he proved to be no match for the

incredibly impressive Bob Olinger in the Ballymore,

Bravemansgame still acquitted himself with credit

and would be of interest if stepping up in trip to

contest the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle. Paul Nicholls’

imposing six-year-old looks a smart prospect for

fences in the autumn, but he would relish the 3m

trip here, and would bid to follow in the footsteps

of Champ, who was placed in the Ballymore before

winning this race in 2019. Versatile in terms of

ground, he remains the best of the English-trained

novice hurdlers, and this would appear to offer his

connections a decent opportunity to land a second

Grade 1 of the season.

The Colin Tizzard-trained pairing of Fiddlerontheroof

and The Big Breakaway chased home

Monkfish in the Brown Advisory, and given that

the he has won two of the past four renewals,

both are sure to be considered for the aforementioned

Mildmay Novices’ Chase. The former defied

his long odds and clearly appreciated the nicer

ground, staying on strongly to chase home the

unbeaten winner. Although he finished 11 lengths

behind his stable-mate The Big Breakaway shaped

better than that bare result, with a mistake three

out (pecked on landing) appearing to take its

toll. Never far from the pace, he jumped well in

the main, and is another who promises to be wellsuited

by the make-up of this track.

Chris Gordon’s On The Slopes shaped well in the

Grand Annual (finished fourth) and would be one

to consider if heading to the Red Rum. A winner

at Kempton in March of last year, this would probably

have been his spring target had the meeting

not been abandoned, and he bounced right back to

form at the festival. Given the mistake he made two

out, runner-up Entoucas could be considered an

unlucky loser and he would certainly be of interest if

he was to head over from Ireland. As stated already,

Irish runners who ran at Cheltenham might be thin

on the ground, but Joseph O’Brien’s seven-year-old

could be one, and he would warrant utmost respect

if travelling over, although the handicapper is sure

to have his say with JP McManus’ novice.

The concluding Weatherbys Champion Bumper

saw two outstanding six-year-olds dominate the

finish, whilst third home Elle Est Belle was best of

the English-trained horses. She was held-up, and as

a result her chance was compromised, given how

the race unfolded, with Rachael Blackmore dictating

from the front aboard the winner. Although she was

never going to reach the front pair, Dan Skelton’s

mare finished strongly up the hill, and the Grade 2

mares’ bumper would seem the obvious race for her.

She won at Aintree on her racecourse debut back

in late-October, and clearly handled the sounder

surface, which wasn’t really a surprise given how she

moves. The Glancing Queen won the Nickel Coin in

2019 after finishing fifth in the Champion Bumper,

and she could be a big threat to Eileendover, who

you can read about later in this feature.

DAY THREE

THERE was a dramatic start to the third day, with

Envoi Allen coming down at the fourth fence, where

he took off far too early. Given that he departed so

early, there is a chance (provided that all is well)

that he could run again this season, with Aintree

a possibility, although the Grade 1 at Fairyhouse –

just four days earlier – would seem the logical spot

for him, should he come out of this in good shape.

As for the race itself, Harry Skelton went hard

aboard Shan Blue – who I had earlier considered

a likely type for Aintree, given his running style –

which set things up for the finishers, and Chantry

House stayed on particularly well to score by three

lengths. On each of his runs over fences he has left

the impression that he wants to go further, and if

he heads to Aintree, I suspect that Friday’s Mildmay

Novices’ Chase would be the likely target. This was

a career-best from Nicky Henderson’s good-looking

son of Yeats, and the stable won the Mildmay

in both 2017 and 2018, most recently with Terrefort,

who was stepping up in trip having finished

second in the Marsh.


5

The Ryanair Chase was a one-horse race from

the outset, with Allaho putting up a stunning

front-running performance under an inspired

Rachael Blackmore (I make no apologies for

eulogising over her performances in the saddle

throughout the week). I have long been of the opinion

that being ridden positively over this sort of

trip would see the seven-year-old in his best light,

but was not expecting this kind of performance.

Willie Mullins’ son of No Risk At All had his rivals

on the stretch a long way from home, and with no

race over an intermediate trip at Punchestown, I

wonder if Mullins and Cheveley Park will consider

a trip to Aintree for the Melling Chase. If he turns

up in the same form, he could take some pegging

back on a course that favours his style of racing,

although Mullins has mentioned the possibility of

dropping back to the minimum trip with next year’s

Queen Mother Champion Chase in mind. If that is

a serious consideration, the Grade 1 over the minimum

trip at the Punchestown Festival might well

become his end-of-season target.

DAY FOUR

RUNNER-UP in the Triumph Hurdle, Adagio is

likely to head to Aintree in a bid to go one better

in the Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle. Already

a Grade 1 winner, that Finale form from Chepstow

in early-January was franked when Houx Gris and

Elham Valley both hit the frame in the Boodles.

On a strict line through Nassalam, there is unlikely

to be an awful lot between him and Monmiral

(read about him shortly), but David Pipe’s runner

has proven himself on better ground and sets the

standard in terms of English-trained juveniles.

Only fifth, I was disappointed with the performance

of Tritonic, who had shown a fine turn of

foot in the closing stages of the Adonis the time

before. Perhaps a more truly-run race would have

suited him (and beaten favourite Zanahiyr) and he

never really looked comfortable from the top of

the hill. Following his Kempton success, I was of

the opinion that the Anniversary would be the ideal

race for him, and reverting to a flatter track might

be in his favour. After the race, trainer Alan King

suggested that quicker ground would be more to

Tritonic’s liking.

The only English-trained runner in the first four

home of the County Hurdle was Milkwood, who

ran another sound race for Neil Mulholland. Never

too far from the pace, he took over approaching

the final flight, only to be swamped late by the

front two. Fourth in the Welsh Champion Hurdle

(form worked out very well) and an unlucky third

(badly hampered) in Newbury’s Gerry Feilden, he

looks more than capable of winning a good-ground

handicap before the season is out. The conditional

jockeys’ handicap hurdle, which now concludes

the second day, would be an option at Aintree,

whilst the Scottish Champion Hurdle the following

weekend would be another race to consider.

The handicapper put him up 2lbs (142) for this

performance. Back in sixth Third Time Lucki also

travelled well, before seemingly not getting home

up the hill. He has the option of reverting to novice

company, should he head to Aintree, where the

track would likely play to his strengths. However,

he has had six starts over hurdles, therefore might

have done enough for this season.

Finally, it sounds like Henry de Bromhead

is considering the Betway Bowl for Gold Cup

runner-up A Plus Tard. Still lightly-raced over

fences, he remains completely unexposed as a

stayer and his preference to race left-handed

means that his trainer is considering Aintree over

Punchestown. The seven-year-old travelled sweetly

under Rachael Blackmore and ran all the way to the

line, in what was clearly a career-best. Not short of

tactical pace (as we know from his form over much

shorter), the track at Aintree wouldn’t pose him

any problem whatsoever, although we have seen

several high-profile horses beaten in the Bowl on

the back of a similar performance in the Gold Cup.

It is worth remembering that when Exotic Dancer

and Might Bite won the Bowl (having finished

runner-up in the Gold Cup on their previous start)

there was a four-week gap between Cheltenham

and Aintree, whereas this year it is the standard

three, with just 20 days between these two races.

He will set the standard on form if lining up, but a

degree of caution should be taken when assessing

his overall chance. In his favour, A Plus Tard

has had just the three starts this season and one

of those was over the minimum trip on his reappearance.

Either way, if he does make the journey

over, he will be a fantastic addition to the meeting.

KEPT FRESH FOR AINTREE (or AYR)

DUAL Champion Hurdle winner Buveur d’Air sidestepped

another crack at that race with this fixture

in mind, and he won the 2017 renewal of the Aintree

Hurdle. Runner-up in the same race two years later,

he also won the Top Novices’ Hurdle in 2016, so

clearly goes well at the track. He will, however, bid

to become just the second 10-year-old in history

to win the race, the only winner older than nine (to

date) being Mister Morose in 2000.

A rejuvenated Brewin’upastorm is also on

target for the Aintree Hurdle, having successfully

reverted to the smaller obstacles at Taunton. He


has since won Fontwell’s National Spirit Hurdle, and

Olly Murphy’s eight-year-old ran a fine race over

course-and-distance, in the 2019 renewal of the

Mersey Novices’ Hurdle. Both horses will be looking

to overcome a key statistic, in that every previous

British-trained winner of the Aintree Hurdle had

run at the Cheltenham Festival.

Trainer Paul Nicholls seems to be readying a

smart team for the Grand National fixture, and that

squad is likely to include Monmiral, Hitman and Cat

Tiger. The former is unbeaten in four starts over

hurdles (three for Nicholls) and maintained that

100% record with a dominant display at Haydock

during February. Soft ground would probably

enhance his chance, and this future exciting chaser

looks set to take his chance in the Grade 1 Anniversary

4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle on the opening day.

MONMIRAL

Hitman is a likely contender for the opening

race of the meeting, the Manifesto Novices’ Chase.

A faller in Sandown’s Scilly Isles in early-February,

he returned to winning ways in a weak race

at Newbury a month later, which ought to have

restored his confidence. Bar one error up the

home straight, the five-year-old jumped well, and

although horses of his age group tend to struggle

in these spring Grade 1s (since the removal of

the age allowance) his running style suggests that

the Mildmay course should play to his strengths.

The other option for him would be wait another

week for Ayr, where the Grade 2 Future Champions

Novices’ Chase could be a slightly easier alternative.

Stable-mate Tamaroc du Mathan is also likely

to be considered for the same two races, following

his comfortable victory in the Pendil at Kempton

in late-February.

Only seven, Cat Tiger will be one of the younger

runners in the Foxhunters’, which is the first race

of the meeting to be staged on the Grand National

course. A three-times novice hurdle winner last

season, he made his belated reappearance at

Leicester in early-March, winning comfortably over

2m6½f. He jumped well on that occasion and likes

TAMAROC DU MATHAN

to race prominently, so he has the ideal runningstyle

for this race. He boasts plenty of jumping

experience around Auteuil, and his owner David

Maxwell will be hoping that amateurs are permitted

to ride again by the time Aintree comes around.

After an interrupted preparation, caused by a

fall at Haydock, Nicky Henderson opted to swerve

Cheltenham with Allart, who like the Nicholls pair,

would be a possible for the Manifesto at Aintree, or

Ayr’s Future Champions. He did have the option of

reverting to hurdles for the Coral Cup, but I think

a 6lbs rise by the handicapper (upon the publication

of the weights) was probably a determining

factor in Henderson’s decision to allow his sevenyear-old

a little more time, and instead continuing

his novice chase campaign into the spring. He had

looked smart on debut at Ascot back in December,

and he has the natural pace to be fully effective

around a track such as Aintree.

ALLART

The same connections – Nicky Henderson

and Ronnie Bartlett – have had to be even more

patient with their once-raced Dusart, who beat

Betfair Hurdle winner Soaring Glory at Newbury

in early-November and has been side-lined since.

Reported to have met with some sort of accident

in the yard, Henderson stated during February that

his half-brother to the high-class Simonsig was

back in training, and might be ready for Aintree

or (more likely) Punchestown. He looked a hugely

exciting prospect on that racecourse debut and

a trip to Ireland could well be a feasible option,


7

given the number of novice hurdles at that fixture.

However, if he were to pitch up in one of the Grade

1s at Aintree (the Mersey would make most appeal),

he certainly shouldn’t be overlooked, despite his

inexperience. There are a couple of winners-of-one

hurdle races (one being a novice only event, the

other an open race) at the Punchestown Festival,

and I would expect both to be considered, should

Aintree come too soon.

One horse who is more likely to be aimed at the

Mersey Novices’ Hurdle is Dan Skelton’s My Drogo

who has now won all three starts over hurdles,

most recently the Premier Novices’ Hurdle at Kelso.

The good-looking six-year-old appeared to relish

stepping up to 2m2f, and easily gave 5lbs and a

9½-length beating to Do Your Job, earning himself

an official rating of 150. Skelton stated that he will

also be entered in the Top Novices’ Hurdle, but

2m4f around Aintree is likely to be more suitable,

and Skelton’s three runners in the race to date (who

all missed Cheltenham) have all hit the frame. He

looks a smart prospect for fences in the autumn,

but after a brace of Grade 2 victories, certainly

deserves to have a crack at a top-level novice

hurdle before the season is out.

MY DROGO

Pam Sly resisted the temptation of running

Eileendover in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper,

and the three-time winner is likely to be a warm

order for the Grade 2 Nickel Coin Mares’ Bumper

at on the opening day. She featured in the original

Bumper Division feature in this year’s Guide,

but her form has since taken a further boost, with

Dragon Bones (4 th at Market Rasen) winning a

Listed novices’ hurdle on her first start over obstacles.

Given that Grangee (3 rd ) has since won a

Grade 2 bumper and more recently finished sixth

in the Champion Bumper, that form is starting to

look extremely strong, and the Canford Cliffs filly

is likely to prove tough to beat on her final start

under National Hunt rules; she is set to embark on

a Flat career after Aintree.

A couple more novice chasers to note at either

Aintree or Ayr would be Silver Hallmark and/or

Espoir de Romay. The former actually won the

Haydock race in which the aforementioned Allart

fell, and his connections thought that he was a little

inexperienced for Cheltenham. He would probably

need easy ground to be seen in the closing

weeks of the season, but certainly wouldn’t be out

of place in graded company.

Those comments also apply to Espoir de Romay,

who has won twice from three starts over fences,

most recently on his handicap debut at Leicester.

His sole defeat actually came at Haydock, but that

was at the hands of Royale Pagaille (won his next

two starts before finishing sixth in the Gold Cup),

and his jumping was measured when he won in a

canter off a mark of 140 last time. Upped a whopping

15lbs for that success, he is now likely to be

forced into graded company (if seen again this

term), but soft ground is reportedly key to Kim

Bailey’s seven-year-old, so it remains to be seen if

he will get conditions to suit in the coming weeks. If

not, I suspect we might see him in the Colin Parker

next autumn, a race that the stable won with Imperial

Aura this season.

One horse who was forced to miss the festival

through a minor injury (rather than deliberately skipping

the meeting) is the Philip Hobbs-trained Thyme

Hill, who was ruled out of the Stayers’ Hurdle at

the five-day stage. Expected to make a fairly swift

recovery, the Ryanair Stayers Liverpool Hurdle is

the obvious target for last season’s Challow winner,

and the track at Aintree certainly shouldn’t pose any

problems, as he isn’t short of speed.

It would appear as though Emma Lavelle is

preparing Paisley Park for Aintree, so this could

be the 'decider' in a season long trilogy. The

pair clashed in both the Long Distance Hurdle at

Newbury and the Long Walk at Ascot, and Lavelle

experts her former Stayers' Hurdle winner to

improve on his recent third placing at the festival,

having been forced to arrive at Cheltenham without

a prep-run.

Finally, Solwara One won at Huntingdon during

festival week, so may have been somewhat overlooked,

and Neil Mulholland states that he could be

Aintree bound, where the 2m4f Orrell Park Handicap

Hurdle on the Friday would look to be the most

suitable race for him. Sent off at prohibitive odds,

the seven-year-old won in a canter and had earlier

impressed with how he travelled when winning at

Doncaster and when finishing second at Exeter.

Returning to a sounder surface looks sure to suit

this son of Gold Well, who is unbeaten in two starts

on good-to-soft ground. Should he turn up here,

the seven-year-old is one for any shortlist, in a race

in which novices have a fine recent record.


RANDOX HEALTH GRAND NATIONAL

FOCUSING on the feature race of the meeting, a

lot has changed in recent weeks, with the news

that Tiger Roll would not be running being the

most significant. Given that he has since bounced

back to form in the Glenfarclas Chase, perhaps that

decision was taken a little hastily, although it was

based on his handicap mark (his owners unhappy

with the rating he was given) above all else. It is

now reported that he could still head to Aintree to

contest the Betway Bowl.

The market the for the National is now headed

by Jonjo O’Neill’s Cloth Cap, who is a horse who

has always threatened to make up into a very

smart performer (indeed, he featured in Jumpers

To Follow in the two editions prior to this season)

and he has clearly improved as he has matured.

After finishing third on his reappearance, he ran

away with the Ladbrokes Trophy, and following

the publication of the Grand National weights,

was an impressive winner of the Premier Chase at

Kelso. The handicapper saw fit to raise him 14lbs

for that victory (to 162), so he will be officially a

stone ahead of his correct mark. In handicapping

terms, that clearly gives him a huge chance, and

his jumping has looked measured and assured so

far this term. He has enjoyed front-running tactics

on each occasion, and more crucially, he has been

able to race on his favoured decent ground. That is

key to his chance, and a wet build-up to the meeting

would certainly be detrimental to that. We are

highly unlikely to have a genuinely good ground

National in this day and age (due to the watering

and safety element), but good-to-soft would

be most suitable. Available at just 5-1 at the time

of writing, he is certainly the worthy favourite, but

will surely be a bigger price on the day of the race.

If you have already read the pages on the Grand

National in this year’s Guide, you will be aware that

I have been keen on the chances of Burrows Saint

for some time, and he, too, has been in action

since we went to print. As expected, he took his

chance in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse, and

although he finished runner-up to stable-mate

Acapella Bourgeois, there was definite progression

shown on his return to chasing. He travelled well

for Paul Townend, and the weakness in the market

seemed to be quite significant. Clearly being steadily

brought to hand with one day in mind, Willie

Mullins’ eight-year-old is another who will relish

better ground (his last three runs on going with

the word ‘good’ in the description have resulted in

his last three wins) and he remains top of my list.

Sandwiched in between the pair in the betting

is the Ted Walsh-trained Any Second Now, who

won the Grade 2 Webster Cup over 2m at Navan

recently. The nine-year-old won the Kim Muir at

Cheltenham in 2019, and as was the case last year,

he has been trained very much with Aintree in

mind. The fact that he possesses the pace to be

effective over the minimum distance leaves a slight

doubt about his stamina over this marathon trip,

but he is a classy performer on his day, and is yet

another who would appreciate better ground.

CLOTH CAP


9

DAY ONE RACE ONE

MANIFESTO NOVICES’ CHASE

Grade 1, 2m 3f 200y

OVERVIEW

ELEVEN years in and it seems that it is almost essential to have run at the Cheltenham Festival, with

no fewer than 10 of the winners to date having contested either the Arkle or the Marsh Novices’ Chase

(formerly the JLT). Introduced in 2009, the Manifesto – which has now been the opening race of the

meeting for the past six years – was handed Grade 1 status after just three runnings.

CHELTENHAM FORM

GIVEN that the meetings are once again just three

weeks apart, it can often be the case that horses

find Aintree coming too soon on the back of a hard

race at the Cheltenham Festival. However, this is

certainly one race in which it seems to favour those

who ran at Prestbury Park, and, overall in 2019, 14

of the 21 Aintree winners had run at the festival.

I often make a case for looking for fresh horses

going into Aintree, but two-thirds of the winners

hailing from Cheltenham suggests that the obvious

shouldn’t be overlooked. The main point I often

try to make when assessing each race at Aintree

is that the markets certainly seem to lean towards

those who have shown good form at the festival,

with those performances more recently in the mind.

On the opening day in 2019, six of the seven

winners had run at the festival.

ARKLE vs MARSH

KALASHNIKOV became the 10th winner of this

race to have run in either the Arkle or the Marsh

Novices’ Chase. The record from each race now

stands at five wins apiece, with Amy Murphy’s

stable-star following in the footsteps of Tartak,

Mad Max, Menorah and Clarcam, who all successfully

stepped up in distance. Only Menorah was

able to hit the frame out of the quintet, so don’t

be put off by those who finish further down the

field in the Arkle.

Another five – Wishfull Thinking, Captain Conan,

Uxizandre, Flying Angel and Finian’s Oscar –

all hailed from the Marsh Novices’ Chase, and

again, none of those had won at the festival.

Both Wishfull Thinking and Uxizandre finished

runner-up at Cheltenham.

In 2019, three of the six-strong field hailed from

the Arkle (Kalashnikov and Glen Forsa) or the

Marsh (Mengli Khan), with Spiritofthegames (third

in the Plate) also having run at the festival. The

two non-Cheltenham runners did include market

leader La Bague Au Roi, who skipped Cheltenham

following her Grade 1 wins in the Kauto Star and the

Flogas Novice Chase, at the Dublin Racing Festival.

With a record of 10 winners in 11 years, the Arkle

and the Marsh are the obvious places to start when

assessing the Manifesto Novices’ Chase. The only

horse to win the Manifesto having not run at Cheltenham

was Arzal, who was chased home by L’Ami

Serge and Sizing John, who hit the frame in the

Marsh and Arkle respectively.

PROMINENT POSITION

LAST year’s winner was probably ridden with a

shade more restraint than most winners of this

race, but he was never too far from the pace and

holding a prominent position over fences at Aintree

is often crucial. Given the nature of the track, it can


be hard to stop a good jumper on the front-end, so

look for horses who like to be ridden up with the

speed and those whose jumping is a key attribute.

CLASS WILL OUT

AS highlighted in earlier editions of the Guide,

previous Graded form appears to come to the

fore in this race, although the latest result failed to

enhance that previously strong record. There were

two previous Grade 1 winners in the 2019 line-up

(the pair finished second and third), so the record

of such horses now stands at four winners from

13 runners, since the race was upgraded in 2012.

Respect those with winning form at the top-level,

over hurdles or fences.

The previous Grade 1 winners were Menorah,

Captain Conan, Clarcam and Finian’s Oscar,

whilst Mad Max – who won a bumper at that level

– Wishfull Thinking and Flying Angel were all

Grade 2 winners.

Whilst the latest winner hadn’t previously won in

open Graded company, he had finished runner-up

in both the Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle and the

Supreme (both Grade 1s) the previous season.

HURDLES FORM

ALTHOUGH he hit the bar at the top level over

hurdles, Kalashnikov had proven himself to be

a very smart novice over the minimum trip and

did, of course, win the valuable Betfair Hurdle.

Both Captain Conan and Finian’s Oscar won the

Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle at Sandown the previous

season, and Menorah – who is the only winner

to date to have spent two full seasons over

hurdles – was, of course, a high-class 2m hurdler.

Whilst not quite at that level, Flying Angel was able

to hit the frame in a Betfair Hurdle (also as a novice)

before winning the Imperial Cup, so smart hurdles

form over the minimum trip is something to take

very seriously.

Aintree is essentially a quick track, especially if

we get good ground for this meeting (which hasn’t

been the case at each of the past two meetings),

so the basic need for speed is apparent. Respect

those who boast strong hurdles form over shorter.

AINTREE FORM

SINCE the race was upgraded, six of the eight

winners had run at Aintree as a novice hurdler,

with five of the six finishing in the first three.

Both Menorah (albeit two seasons earlier) and

Captain Conan finished runner-up in the Top

Novices’ Hurdle, whilst Clarcam also finished

runner-up 12 months earlier, in the Anniversary

4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle. More recently, Flying Angel

KEY TRENDS

10 of the 11 winners contested either the

Arkle (5) or Marsh (5) at Cheltenham

10 of the 11 winners spent just one season

over hurdles

Grade 1 winners are 4-13 since the race was

upgraded

All 11 winners hailed from the top 3 in the

betting

9 of the past 10 winners were rated 150 or

higher

8 of the past 9 winners had run 4 or 5 times

over fences

8 of the past 9 winners had won twice over

fences

8 of the 11 winners had run 7 times or less

over hurdles

6 of the past 7 winners were aged 6

6 of the past 8 winners had run at Aintree as

a novice hurdler

5 of the past 8 winners had already won a

Grade 1 or Grade 2

5 of the past 8 winners won good hurdle

races over 2m

Respect those who race prominently

Philip Hobbs is 2-3

Nicky Henderson is 2-7

Paul Nicholls is 0-12

No winner has started bigger than 11/2

No winner won last-time-out

5-y-os are 1-8 (the other 7 all unplaced)

Mares are 0-5

finished third in the Mersey Novices’ Hurdle, a

race which Finian’s Oscar won 12 months prior to

winning the Manifesto. Obviously, with last year’s

meeting lost, this trend is unlikely to have an

impact, unless going back two years, as was the

case with Menorah.

CURRENT FORM/CHASING EXPERIENCE

TWO of the 2019 sextet (the two non-Cheltenham

runners) arrived at Aintree on the back of a win

and were bidding to become the very first Manifesto

winner to have won last-time-out.

An average of four or five runs (eight of the past

nine winners fell into this category) over fences

seems to fit well, whilst Captain Conan – who had

won three times previously – is the only winner

since the race became a Grade 1 to have won more

DAY ONE RACE ONE


13

DAY ONE RACE ONE

than twice over fences.

The two most experienced winners – Tartak and

Arzal – had both run over fences in France, before

joining their British stables.

AGE

KALASHNIKOV became the sixth winning six-yearold

in the past seven years, which is in keeping with

the fact that the winners of this race tend to spend

just the one season over hurdles, before quickly

being switched to chasing.

Clarcam is the only winning five-year-old, with

the other seven to have taken their chance all finishing

unplaced. Plenty has been made of the lack of

allowances for such horses earlier in the Guide and

it is worth noting that four of those beaten fiveyear-olds

were trained by Paul Nicholls. More of his

record in the race shortly, but that quartet included

Chapoturgeon (sent off favourite) and Frodon.

Hitman – another five-year-old – could be a

possible contender for this race for the Nicholls

stable this year, although he fell when last sighted

in the Scilly Isles at Sandown. He moved powerfully

before coming down, however, and although he

holds entries at Cheltenham, a flat track like Aintree

might really play to his strengths. He remains a

bright young prospect.

MARKET FORCES

KALASHNIKOV also maintained the fine record of

those towards the head of the betting, with all 11

winners hailing from the top three in the market.

Only Captain Conan has justified favouritism, so it

is a race which has favoured those just in behind

(second- and third-favourites have a fine record)

and the biggest-priced winner was Tartak, back in

2009. Since then, every winner has been sent off

at 5/1 or shorter.

MARES

ONLY five mares have taken their chance in the

Manifesto, but 2019's favourite La Bague Au

Roi made it 0-5, although Rene’s Girl finished

runner-up in 2018. The other three mares all finished

unplaced and they included Pepite Rose, who was

sent off at just 4/1 (she was also a five-year-old).

Mares currently receive a 7lb sex allowance in

this contest.

OFFICIAL BHA RATINGS

NINE of the past 10 winners had already obtained

an official rating of 150 or higher, so respect any

such horse coming into this race. In 2019, only

Kalashnikov wasn’t rated 150 (148) so it was

a classy renewal on paper, but again the two

top-rated horses were the pair who skipped the

festival, so had a big stumbling block to overcome.

CONNECTIONS TO NOTE

NICKY Henderson and Philip Hobbs are the only

two trainers to have won more than one Manifesto

to date, with Mad Max and Captain Conan providing

the former with two wins in four years, whilst Wishfull

Thinking and Menorah provided Hobbs and

owner Mrs Diana Whateley with back-to-back wins

in 2011 and 2012. Hobbs has only had one runner in

the race since, with Garde La Victoire (also carried

the Whateley silks) a faller four years ago. Respect

any horse deemed good enough to represent the

Hobbs yard, whilst Henderson’s record stands at

two winners from seven runners.

More recently, Gigginstown House Stud won

the race in 2015 with Clarcam and their two

runners since – Calino d’Airy and Mengli Khan –

have finished third in the past two renewals.

Gordon Elliott trained both Clarcam and Mengli

Khan and he has only saddled three runners in the

race, since it was upgraded.

Paul Nicholls didn’t have a runner in 2019, but

I highlighted his poor record in the race in each of

the past two years and that record remains at 0-12.

Eight of those dozen runners were sent off at odds

of 11/2 or shorter, and three – including Cyrname

three years ago – were sent off as favourite.

OTHER KEY RACE

THE record of both the Arkle and the Marsh

Novices’ Chase have already been well documented.

Away from the Cheltenham Festival, the

novice chase which has thrown up a trio of Manifesto

winners is Doncaster’s Lightning Novices’

Chase. Mad Max, Menorah and Arzal all contested

the late-January Grade 2, although none of the trio

were successful.

This year's Lightning Novices' Chase was won

by Arkle favourite Shishkin, who scored with any

amount in hand. Given how strongly he finishes

his races, he would have no problem in seeing out

an extra half-mile around a track like Aintree, but

I can't really envisage him going up in distance

at this stage, unless he is beaten in the Arkle.

However, runner-up Eldorado Allen might appreciate

an extra half-mile, having earlier been beaten

in a Henry VIII, and not looking to have the requisite

pace for the Graded events over the minimum

trip. He could be of interest if Colin Tizzard thinks

about trying him over this longer trip.


DAY ONE RACE ONE

HITMAN COULD BE WELL SUITED BY THE TRACK AT AINTREE

ROLL OF HONOUR

Year Form Winner Age Weight OR SP Trainer Runners Last Race (No. of days)

2020 NO RACE - meeting cancelled

2019 1122U Kalashnikov 6 11-4 148 4/1 A Murphy 6 u.r. Gr.1 Arkle Trophy (23)

2018 132P5 Finian’s Oscar 6 11-4 151 5/2 C Tizzard 6 5th Gr.1 Marsh Nov. Chase (28)

2017 1FP16 Flying Angel 6 11-4 150 5/1 N Twiston-Davies 6 6th Gr.1 Marsh Nov. Chase (21)

2016 81132 Arzal 6 11-4 151 4/1 H Whittington 8 2nd Gr.2 Doncaster Chase (68)

2015 21128 Clarcam 5 11-4 153 5/1 G Elliott (IRE) 6 8th Gr.1 Arkle Trophy (30)

2014 1152 Uxizandre 6 11-4 153 11/4 A King 5 2nd Gr.1 Marsh Nov. Chase (21)

2013 1115 Captain Conan 6 11-4 152 6/5F N Henderson 7 5th Gr.2 Marsh Nov. Chase (21)

2012 411F3 Menorah 7 11-4 151 3/1 P Hobbs 5 3rd Gr.1 Arkle Trophy (30)

2011 F1212 Wishfull Thinking 8 11-4 155 9/4 P Hobbs 7 2nd Gr.2 Marsh Nov. Chase (21)

LEADING TEN-YEAR GUIDES

Marsh Novices’ Chase 5 (Wishfull Thinking 2nd, Captain Conan 5th, Uxizandre 2nd,

Flying Angel 6th, Finian’s Oscar 5th)

Arkle Trophy 3 (Menorah 3rd, Clarcam 8th, Kalashnikov u.r.)

Lightning Novices’ Chase 2 (Menorah fell, Arzal 2nd)

*Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle 3 (Captain Conan 1st, Finian’s Oscar 1st, Kalashnikov 2nd)

*Mersey Novices’ Hurdle 2 (Flying Angel 3rd, Finian’s Oscar 1st)

* denotes previous season


15

DAY ONE RACE TWO

DOOM BAR ANNIVERSARY

4-Y-O JUVENILE HURDLE

Grade 1, 2m 209y

OVERVIEW

ONLY the third Grade 1 in the English calendar – behind the Finale at Chepstow and the Triumph at

Cheltenham – for juvenile hurdlers, the Anniversary 4-Y-O was handed top-level status in 2005. Prior

to this, any Triumph winner attempting to complete a Cheltenham-Aintree double had to carry a

penalty and, since then, the Triumph Hurdle really has been the obvious starting point when assessing

this race.

The roll of honour includes subsequent Champion Hurdle winner Binocular and, more recently,

the high-class duo of Apple’s Jade and Defi du Seuil have landed the prize.

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL FORM

SINCE 2001 (the year when the festival was lost to

the Foot And Mouth outbreak), only two winners

– L’Unique and We Have A Dream – failed to run

at the Cheltenham Festival. The latter was forced

to miss the festival through injury, so that was by

accident rather than design, so in the past 19 years,

only L’Unique deliberately swerved the festival.

No fewer than 10 of the past 15 winners (since

the race was upgraded in 2005) had contested the

Triumph Hurdle. Pentland Hills became the second

horse in three years to complete the double, and

the eight Triumph winners to have run here (during

this period) have finished first (5) or second (3).

Others to complete the double in recent years are

Detroit City, Katchit and Zarkandar, and the record

of Triumph Hurdle winners in this race since 2005

reads 11212211.

Faasel and Walkon both finished runner-up in

the Triumph and neither Triumph winner ran in their

respective years, whilst Guitar Pete was the best

Triumph finisher (3rd) in his year, with neither the

first or second turning up at Aintree. Grumeti and

Apple’s Jade are the only pair during this period to

reverse form with the Triumph winner.

The other Triumph Hurdle winner to be beaten

during this 15-year spell was Celestial Halo, who lost

out to Binocular, who had finished runner-up in the

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. It is quite unusual these

days that a leading four-year-old is allowed to take

on their elders at the festival, but Fakir d’Oudairies

did it in 2019 (when 4th behind Klassical Dream)

and he came on to Aintree to finish runner-up to

Pentland Hills. He also carries the green and gold

hoops of JP McManus, who is clearly happy to keep

his juveniles apart at Cheltenham.

The other two recent Anniversary winners

who ran at the festival – Orsippus and All Yours –

contested the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

(registered as the Fred Winter), and Band Of

Outlaws attempted to follow that path in 2019, but

could finish only fifth when stepping up in class.

Neither of this winning pair were successful at the

festival; in fact, the latter finished only fifth, and

both probably won weak renewals. It can certainly

pay to pay more attention to Grade 1 form.

OTHER KEY RACES

2019’s winner Pentland Hills only made his debut

(after we went to print) shortly before winning the

Triumph, so didn’t contest any of the earlier-season

key-races. As touched upon previously, the other


Grade 1 in the season for juveniles is Chepstow’s

Finale Juvenile Hurdle, a race which Walkon, Defi

du Seuil and We Have A Dream all won during the

past 12 years. During this period, six winners from

Chepstow have taken their chance at Aintree and

this season's race was won by David Pipe's Adagio.

Adagio had earlier finished runner-up in the Grade

2 JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle (registered as

the Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle) and two winners

in the past six years ran in that event. Again, D e fi

du Seuil won that contest, whilst Guitar Pete

finished runner-up.

The other Cheltenham contest to take note of

is the Finesse Juvenile Hurdle on trials day, with

another trio of Anniversary winners successful in

late-January in the past 11 years. Walkon, the same

connections’ Grumeti (promoted to first place) and,

again, Defi du Seuil were the trio in question. As

previously highlighted in the Guide, this is one of

the races which was lost this year, due to the abandonment

of the late-January fixture.

Away from Cheltenham, pay close attention

to Kempton’s Adonis Juvenile Hurdle, which is

run after the Guide goes to print, but has thrown

up three winners of this in the past 10 years.

Zarkandar completed the double, L’Unique

finished third at Kempton, whilst All Yours finished

runner-up before heading into handicap company

at Cheltenham. 2019’s Adonis winner Fusil Raffles

was forced to miss both Cheltenham and Aintree,

but gained Grade 1 honours at the Punchestown

Festival, and going back a little further, Binocular

completed the Adonis-Anniversary double in 2008.

The only two recent Irish-trained winners of

this race (many are instead aimed at the Grade 1

at Punchestown) – Guitar Pete and Apple’s Jade –

had both won the Grade 2 Knight Frank Juvenile

Hurdle, a race won this season by Zanahiyr, who

followed up his Fairyhouse Grade 3 win in impressive

fashion, despite conceding 3lbs to all six rivals.

Gordon Elliott appears to hold a strong hand in this

division, so it will be interesting to see how they are

split up come the spring.

Graded form seems almost essential when

assessing the Anniversary. All bar one of the 15

winners – since the race was handed Grade 1 status

– had failed to win or place in Graded company.

THE FRENCH CONNECTION

ALTHOUGH neither of the French-bred runners

could add to the fine recent record in 2019,

Fakir d’Oudairies did finish a neck second

and the previous four winners of this race were

French-bred. Such horses have fine records in juvenile

hurdles in general (see earlier Cheltenham

KEY TRENDS

10 of the last 15 winners finished in the first

3 of the Triumph Hurdle

8 of the past 12 winners started their racing

career in France

Horses rated 152 or higher are 5-8 since

2007

Since the race was upgraded, all

8 Triumph Hurdle winners to have run

finished first or second

Since the race was upgraded, 8 of the 15

winners were top-rated

The Finale Juvenile Hurdle winner is 3-6

during the past 12 years

Respect earlier season Graded form

5 of the past 7 winners were French-bred

USA-bred juveniles are 2-6 since 2005

Nicky Henderson has saddled the past two

winners

Respect Alan King

Respect Philip Hobbs

Respect fillies (especially French-bred)

Only 2 winners since 2002 failed to run at

the Cheltenham Festival

Only 1 winner since the race was upgraded

failed to finish in the first 3 last time out

Only 1 winner since the race was upgraded

failed to win or place in a Graded race

races) and this is no different. In total, seven of the

past 12 winners were French-bred, whilst Zarkandar

began his racing career in France, despite being

Irish-bred. During the past 12 renewals, 46 of the

125 runners (37%) started out in France, so a record

of eight winners is very good.

The amount of ‘French’ runners in top-level juvenile

hurdles seemingly increases by the year, but

we should pay healthy respect to such horses, due

to their evident precociousness.

USA-BRED JUVENILES

IF French-bred horses are more obvious contenders

in leading juvenile hurdle races, those bred in

America would be less so. However, only six have

taken their chance since the race was upgraded

and two have been successful. The healthy

level-stakes profit for backing such horses stands

at £39, although this is mainly thanks to the 40/1

starting price of Orsippus. The other USA-bred

winner was the grey Detroit City, and rather like

the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival, this is

DAY ONE RACE TWO


17

DAY ONE RACE TWO

an unusual and surprising trend, which should be

monitored. That said, the only USA-bred runner

in the past 10 years was Stars Over The Sea, who

finished fourth in 2015.

FILLIES TO BE RESPECTED

THERE were no fillies amongst 2019’s nine-strong

field and three – including favourite Apple’s Shakira

– were beaten in 2018, but L’Unique and Apple’s

Jade have shown in recent years that fillies have

a decent strike rate in this event from a relatively

small representation. Going back even further,

Bilboa was a really impressive winner in 2001, when

the race was still a Grade 2. She received a 5lb

sex-allowance, whereas it now stands at 7lb, and all

three winning fillies this century were French-bred.

CONNECTIONS TO NOTE

PENTLAND HILLS provided Nicky Henderson

with a seventh win in the Triumph Hurdle, and in

following up in this race, provided the trainer with

back-to-back wins, emulating We Have A Dream.

Binocular, back in 2008, was his other winner of

the race and his record this century stands at three

winners from 19 runners.

Alan King remains the leading trainer in this

race with four wins to his name but he hasn’t had

a runner in each of the past three renewals. He

only saddled five horses between 2008 and 2013,

with four winning and the other finishing runner-up,

and has only saddled two runners in the race since

that latest success with the filly L’Unique. It is also

worth noting that two of King’s winners – and the

second during that lucrative spell – carried the silks

of the McNeill Family, who now have more horses

TRITONIC

spread across various stables. King and the McNeill

Family could team up this year with Tritonic, who

made a winning hurdling debut at Ascot recently,

having earlier shown high-class handicap form on

the level. He stayed on strongly to win at Ascot

and is likely to run at Kempton (27th February) in

either the Dovecote, or the aforementioned Adonis,

before the Triumph is presumably considered. With

the Irish looking to hold a strong hand in the juvenile

division, this race might offer Tritonic the best

chance of Grade 1 success this spring.

Another trainer who hasn’t had too many

runners in recent years is Philip Hobbs, but Defi

du Seuil provided him with a third winner in the

race in 2017 and Gumball finished runner-up for the

Minehead-based stable the following year. His

only runner in the nine-year period between 2008

and 2016 was Sadler’s Risk, who finished third in

2012, so Hobbs’ last three runners have all won or

placed. His earlier two winners – Lord Brex and

Detroit City – carried the yellow and black silks of

Terry Warner, who also owned Gumball, runner-up

three years ago.

Finally, Paul Nicholls is another trainer who has

saddled three winners in this race, although he

has had more runners than the others highlighted.

Third in 2019, Christopher Wood was Nicholls’ 24th

runner in this race this century, and as well as those

trio of winners, he has seen another seven finish in

the first three.


PENTLAND HILLS became the third successive

top-rated (including joints) winner of the Anniversary.

Surprisingly, given his lofty mark of 153

and the record of Triumph winners (already highlighted),

he was sent off just third in the betting at

11/4, despite having upwards of 4lb in hand on the

remainder of the field. Despite missing the festival,

his stablemate We Have A Dream was still joint-toprated

in 2018, whilst Defi du Seuil was 10lb clear

on ratings in 2017, arriving at Aintree with a lofty

mark of 155.

Katchit (159), Walkon (152) and Zarkandar (154)

were also top-rated winners rated in the 150s, whilst

both Faasel and Detroit City also arrived at Aintree

having obtained the highest official rating. Therefore,

since the race was upgraded, eight of the 15

winners were officially top-rated.

Since 2007, only 10 juveniles had gained an official

rating of 150 (or higher) prior to Aintree and five

have been successful. The five were rated at least

152 and only eight horses fell into this category, so

respect any juvenile turning up for this with an official

mark of 152 or higher.


DAY ONE RACE TWO

PENTLAND HILLS

ROLL OF HONOUR



2019 11 Pentland Hills 4 11-0 153 11/4 N Henderson 9 1st Gr.1 Triumph Hurdle (20)

2018 41111 We Have A Dream 4 11-0 145 2/1 N Henderson 10 1st Listed Scottish Triumph Hurdle Trial (67)

2017 11111 Defi du Seuil 4 11-0 155 4/11F P Hobbs 8 1st Gr.1 Triumph Hurdle (20)

2016 112 Apple’s Jade 4 10-7 145 3/1 W Mullins (IRE) 9 2nd Gr.1 Triumph Hurdle (20)

2015 F125 All Yours 4 11-0 138 16/1 P Nicholls 10 5th Gr.3 Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle (29)

2014 12113 Guitar Pete 4 11-0 144 13/2 D Hughes (IRE) 15 3rd Gr.1 Triumph Hurdle (20)

2013 4113 L’Unique 4 10-7 135 10/1 A King 10 3rd Gr.2 Adonis Hurdle (40)

2012 1F113 Grumeti 4 11-0 148 11/4F A King 11 3rd Gr.1 Triumph Hurdle (27)

2011 12311 Zarkandar 4 11-0 154 4/6F P Nicholls 9 1st Gr.1 Triumph Hurdle (20)


Triumph Hurdle 6 (Zarkandar 1st, Grumeti 3rd, Guitar Pete 3rd, Apple’s Jade 2nd,

Defi du Seuil 1st, Pentland Hills 1st)

Adonis Hurdle 3 (Zarkandar 1st, L’Unique 3rd, All Yours 2nd)

Finesse Hurdle 2 (Grumeti 1st, Defi du Seuil 1st)

Finale Juvenile Hurdle 2 (Defi du Seuil 1st, We Have A Dream 1st)

Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle 2 (Guitar Pete 1st, Apple’s Jade 1st)

JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial (Nov.) 2 (Guitar Pete 2nd, Defi du Seuil 1st)


19

DAY ONE RACE THREE

BETWAY BOWL CHASE

Grade 1, 3m 210y

OVERVIEW

ESTABLISHED in 1984, the Bowl – which was known as the Martell Cup for many years – was handed

Grade 1 status in 2010 and is the feature steeplechase, among a quartet of Grade 1s, on the opening

day of the meeting. Four horses in total – and two since the turn of the century – have won the race

twice, those being Wayward Lad, Docklands Express, First Gold and, more recently, Silviniaco Conti,

who had a real liking for the track, having won the Mildmay Novices’ Chase, too.

TACTICS

THIS is something which I have already touched

upon (see the Manifesto Novices’ Chase) but it really

can pay to race close to the pace over fences on

the Mildmay Course at Aintree, especially in smallfield

events, which this race invariably is. Just the

six went to post in 2019 and Ruby Walsh produced

a masterclass aboard Kemboy, who made all to run

out an impressive nine-length winner. Allowing a

horse an uncontested lead around Aintree can be

dangerous and it is certainly a track which favours

those who like to race prominently. As a consequence,

hold-up performers tend to struggle in this

particular event.

THE CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP

KEMBOY became the 25th winner of this race (in

the 37 years) to arrive at Aintree on the back of

having run in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham. In fairness,

four of the six runners in 2019 had contested

the highlight at the festival some 20 days earlier,

with Bristol de Mai (3rd), Clan des Obeaux (5th)

and Elegant Escape (6th) all finishing behind Al

Boum Photo. Having got no further than the first

fence (when he unseated David Mullins), the winner

clearly had the easiest race at Cheltenham and that

is very much something to bear in mind, with many

a winner of this race finishing out of the frame in

the Gold Cup. Both Madison du Berlais and Silviniaco

Conti (twice) finished unplaced at Cheltenham

before landing the Bowl, whilst three of the past

four winners failed to complete in the Gold Cup,

with Cue Card a faller and Tea For Two also unseating

Lizzie Kelly early on (second fence).

Two horses in recent years – Exotic Dancer and

Might Bite – have won the Bowl on the back of

finishing runner-up in the Gold Cup, but perhaps

crucially in both years, there was a four-week gap

between Cheltenham and Aintree, as opposed to

the standard three. The Gold Cup clearly takes a

lot out of horses, and the likes of Denman (twice),

Kauto Star and Imperial Commander have all been

beaten in this race on the back of huge runs at

Cheltenham. The gap between both meetings

is back to three weeks this year, so again, treat

those who go close in the Gold Cup with a bit more

caution than the ‘also-rans’.

PREVIOUS FORM AT AINTREE

AS touched upon in the Overview, this is a race

in which horses can successfully return. As with

Silviniaco Conti, Might Bite had won the Mildmay

Novices’ Chase before winning the Bowl and that

race was, of course, won in impressive fashion in

2019 by Lostintranslation.

Four of the past nine winners had run in this


race previously, so respect any horse returning for

another crack at the race. Clan des Obeaux finished

third in 2018 and runner-up in 2019, whilst Kemboy

would make plenty of appeal if travelling over from

Ireland once again. He has a rather unique way of

jumping his obstacles and it could be that a flat

track, such as this, is more suitable. If Willie Mullins

runs his lightly-raced nine-year-old, he will bid to

become the third horse to win back-to-back renewals

of the race.

KINGS OF KEMPTON

CLAN DES OBEAUX was unable to enhance the

impressive recent record of King George winners

when runner-up two years ago, but it remains very

much a key piece of form in relation to this race.

Silviniaco Conti (twice), Cue Card and Might Bite

all won the King George VI Chase earlier in the

season, and every British-trained winner during the

past decade had contested the Boxing Day showpiece.

In total, 12 of the past 22 winners ran in the

King George, so it is the obvious starting point

when assessing the Bowl.

This season’s King George was, of course, won

by Frodon, who was just over two lengths too

good for the fast-finishing Waiting Patiently, with

the aforementioned Clan des Obeaux a further six

lengths away in third. The winner won the 2018 Old

Roan Chase at this track, and his front-running style

works well around here. His latest two visits to the

course can be ignored, with the low sun forcing

plenty of fences to omitted.

I have highlighted this in previous years, but

Kempton form does seem to stand up well at

Aintree, despite the obvious difference in configuration

(one being right-handed, the other left).

Horses require tactical speed to hold their position

on both courses, and the ability to jump at

speed (and in a nice rhythm) is key, particularly

over fences. See More Business, Florida Pearl and

First Gold are another trio who completed the King

George/Bowl double this century, but don’t be

afraid to look at those beaten at Kempton either,

with Nacarat and Tea For Two both improving on

their fourth placing in the King George.

KEY TRENDS

25 of the past 36 winners had run in the

Gold Cup

4 of the past 6 winners had won that

season’s King George

12 of the past 22 winners had finished in the

first four in the King George

8 of the past 10 winners were favourite (4)

or second-favourite (4)

4 of the past 5 favourites have won

4 of the past 6 winners were top-rated

4 of the past 9 winners had run in the Bowl

previously

Horses rated 170+ are 4-8 during the past

6 years

Irish-trained horses are 3-13 during past

8 years

Willie Mullins has saddled 2 winners from

4 runners

Respect those who race up with the pace

Respect previous Aintree form (particularly

in this race)

Be wary of hold-up performers

Be cautious of those who had a hard race in

the Gold Cup

No last-time-out winner since 2010

OTHER KEY RACES

KEMBOY became the fourth winner in the past 11

years to have contested the Savills Chase over

Christmas. Both he and What A Friend were

successful, whereas the other pair – Follow The

Plan and First Lieutenant – finished sixth and

second respectively. Kemboy again ran really well

in this season’s renewal, collared only in the dying

strides by A Plus Tard, and he appeared to appreciate

reverting to front-running tactics, which makes

him an obvious candidate for this race once again.

In Britain, the other Grade 1 staying chase in the

calendar – aside from the King George and Gold Cup

– is Haydock’s Betfair Chase, which was won again in

November by Bristol de Mai. Four winners in the past

10 years had contested the Betfair, a race in which

Clan des Obeaux travelled notably well for a long

way. If he skips Cheltenham and heads to Aintree as

a fresh horse, his chance should be greatly increased

this year, as the Haydock run might have just taken

the edge off him in the King George.

Another early-season contest which has thrown

up three Bowl winners in the past 10 years is Wetherby’s

Charlie Hall Chase, won this season by

Cyrname. He, of course, failed to spark in the King

George, but is another whose running style should

be suited to Aintree’s Mildmay course, and the

likely small field would also play to his strengths.

THE IRISH CHALLENGE

THREE of 2019’s six runners were trained

in Ireland, and Kemboy became the third

Irish-trained winner of the race in the past eight

DAY ONE RACE THREE


21

DAY ONE RACE THREE

years. Follow The Plan and First Lieutenant

were the other pairing – who won successive

renewals – and during that eight-year spell, only

13 Irish-trained runners have taken their chance.

With the Punchestown Gold Cup a viable option

on home soil, many a leading Irish staying chaser

will be trained with that race in mind, although

Kemboy showed in 2019 that the double can be

achieved. That said, there was four weeks between

the meetings on that occasion, and the gap is back

to three this year, as it was (20 days, in fact) when

Cue Card unsuccessfully attempted the double.

Gigginstown House Stud seem more than happy

to aim horses at Aintree and they were represented

by both Balko des Flos (3rd) and Road To Respect

(5th) in 2019. Although they have only won the race

once, with First Lieutenant, they continue to have

runners in it and their Don Poli finished runner-up

to Cue Card in 2016.

MARKET FORCES

KEMBOY became the fourth winning favourite in

the past five years, with only Tea For Two breaking

that trend. Cue Card was just a neck away from

making it five successive winning favourites that

day and a further quartet of winners during the

past 10 years were sent off second in the betting.

The shock victory of Follow The Plan (sent off at

50/1) was a rarity and this tends to be a race which

is dominated by the top of the market.

BHA RATINGS

FOUR of the past six winners were officially

top-rated when arriving at Aintree, so again this

suggests that the race is quite predictable, in

terms of the better horses coming to the fore.

Certainly, this has been the case of late. During

the past six renewals, only eight horses with a

rating of 170 or higher have contested the Bowl

and four have been successful. Cue Card, when a

neck second, was another, so despite 2019’s result

(both Clan des Obeaux and Bristol de Mai were

rated 172, but were beaten), pay healthy respect to

any runner with an official mark in the 170s.

TRAINERS TO NOTE

PAUL Nicholls – with four victories since 2000 –

remains the most successful trainer in this race,

although as touched upon already, he has also seen

the likes of Kauto Star, Denman (twice) and Clan

des Obeaux (twice) beaten in the past 12 years.

Three of his four winners were sent off favourite

and the other – What A Friend – was sent off 5/2

second-best.

Kemboy provided Willie Mullins with a second

win in this race, although his first success came

back in 2002 when Florida Pearl was successful

under Barry Geraghty. In those 16 years between

his two winners, Mullins only saddled runners in

2016, when Don Poli (2nd) and Djakadam (3rd)

chased home Cue Card, so his record in the race is

pretty good indeed. As touched upon in a previous

subsection, the Punchestown Festival often takes

preference with the leading Irish trainers, and that

is certainly the case with Mullins, but respect any

horse who he saddles in this race.

FRODON – winning the King George on Boxing Day


ROLL OF HONOUR



2019 11U Kemboy 7 11-7 168 9/4F W Millins (IRE) 6 u.r. Gr.1 Cheltenham Gold Cup (20)

2018 112 Might Bite 9 11-7 172 4/5F N Henderson 8 2nd Gr.1 Cheltenham Gold Cup (27)

2017 5241U Tea For Two 8 11-7 158 10/1 N Williams 7 u.r. Gr.1 Cheltenham Gold Cup (20)

2016 4111F Cue Card 10 11-7 176 6/5F C Tizzard 9 fell Gr.1 Cheltenham Gold Cup (20)

2015 5117 Silviniaco Conti 9 11-7 173 7/4F P Nicholls 7 7th Gr.1 Cheltenham Gold Cup (27)

2014 314 Silviniaco Conti 8 11-7 177 9/4 P Nicholls 6 4th Gr.1 Cheltenham Gold Cup (20)

2013 42322 First Lieutenant 8 11-7 168 7/2 M Morris (IRE) 8 2nd Gr.1 Ryanair Chase (22)

2012 6244 Follow The Plan 9 11-7 152 50/1 O McKiernan (IRE) 11 4th Listed Gowran Handicap Chase (23)

2011 1443 Nacarat 10 11-7 155 7/2 T George 6 3rd Gr.3 BetBright Handicap Chase (41)


King George VI Chase 6 (Nacarat 4th, Silviniaco Conti 1st, 1st, Cue Card 1st,

Tea For Two 4th, Might Bite 1st)

Cheltenham Gold Cup 6 (Silviniaco Conti 7th & 4th, Cue Card fell, Tea For Two u.r.,

Might Bite 1st, Kemboy u.r.)

*Aintree Bowl 4 (Nacarat 3rd, Follow The Plan 3rd, Silviniaco Conti 3rd & 1st)

Betfair Chase 4 (Nacarat 4th, Silviniaco Conti 1st & 3rd, Cue Card 1st)

Savills Chase 3 (Follow The Plan 6th, First Lieutenant 2nd, Kemboy 1st)

Charlie Hall Chase 3 (Nacarat 1st, Silviniaco Conti 5th, Cue Card 1st)


DAY ONE RACE THREE

OUR ANALYSIS

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23

DAY ONE RACE FOUR

BETWAY AINTREE HURDLE

Grade 1, 2m 4f

OVERVIEW

SWITCHED from Grand National day to day one of the meeting in 2013, the Aintree Hurdle often

sees a clash between two-milers and three-milers, although since 2004, the stayers have had the

option of running in the Stayers Liverpool Hurdle over the longer trip. The only open Grade 1 hurdle

over 2m4f at any of the three spring festivals, the Aintree Hurdle remains unique in that respect, and

the likes of Al Eile and Oscar Whisky – the past two multiple winners of the race – have shown that

specialists at the trip can flourish. Seven horses in total have won the race more than once, the most

notable being Morley Street, who won four consecutive renewals between 1990 and 1993.

TACTICS

IN contrast to the chase course, the hurdles

track at Aintree can lend itself towards a hold-up

performer. The hurdles track is on the outer, and

with the flight on the side of the course (now positioned

here throughout the winter months in recent

seasons) removed, there is a lengthy gap between

the final hurdle on the far side and the first up the

home straight. This gives those in behind ample

time to move into a threatening position, rather

like the New Course at Cheltenham. Again, tactical

speed is required as the flat track – especially on

decent ground – favours those with a turn of foot.

CHAMPION HURDLE CLASS

BOTH Annie Power and Buveur d’Air have

completed the Champion Hurdle-Aintree Hurdle

double in recent seasons, and only five Champion

Hurdle winners have headed to Aintree since 1999.

The mighty Istabraq completed the double that

year, whilst in the years in between Rooster

Booster finished runner-up in 2003 and Rock On

Ruby finished third eight years ago.

Overall, 29 of the 43 Aintree Hurdle winners

had run in the Champion Hurdle the previous

month and although that statistic wasn’t enhanced

in 2019, it remains very much the starting point

when assessing this race. Three of 2019's sevenstrong

field had run in the Champion Hurdle, with

2017 winner Buveur d’Air sent off odds-on to gain

compensation from his fall at Cheltenham. He was

probably undone by the soft ground at the trip,

whilst the placed horses from Cheltenham – Melon

and Silver Streak – also lined up. Melon falling three

out means that of the past 18 Champion Hurdle

runners-up to take their chance, only Khyber Kim

has been successful.

Of the past 10 winners, seven had run in the

Champion Hurdle, all finishing in the first four,

but tread careful should the second-placed horse

run. Obviously, we don’t know what would have

happened last year after Cheltenham, but the

Champion Hurdle winner Epatante (who heads

the market to retain her crown at the time of writing)

doesn’t look like a mare who is crying out for

an extra half-mile. It will, therefore, be interesting

to see if she heads to Aintree after she attempts

to defend her crown in March.

OTHER KEY CHELTENHAM RACES

THE past two Aintree Hurdle winners were dropping

in distance, having run in the Stayers’ Hurdle and,


perhaps, that is indicative of the soft ground that we

have endured during the past two years – the Thursday

at Aintree in 2019 was one of the wettest days

racing that I can remember in a long time. Oscar

Whisky is another to follow that route in the past

decade, with Mister Morose (2000) the previous

winner of this to have run in the Stayers’ last time out.

The Coral Cup produced a couple of winners in

the early part of this century – Ilnamar (won) and

Rhinestone Cowboy (3rd) – although that latest

victory came back in 2004. It is also worth remembering

that 2019’s winner Supasundae had won the

Coral Cup back in 2017, before finishing runner-up in

the Stayers Liverpool Hurdle on Grand National day.

It should be pointed out, however, that the past

eight winners (and 11 of the past 14) were previous

Grade 1 winners, so maybe the days of horses

bridging the gap from top handicaps are gone.

Earlier in the season, the International Hurdle

has produced three winners during the past 11

years. Khyber Kim, Zarkandar and The New One

were all successful in the 2m1f contest at Cheltenham’s

December meeting, and given that the race

is staged on the stiffer New course – and often on

soft ground – it does tend to favour a strong stayer

at the trip. This season’s International was won by

Song For Someone, who stayed on in determined

fashion to fend off the late challenge of Silver

Streak, with the omission of the final hurdle meaning

there was a very lengthy run from the eventual

last obstacle. He has yet to win at the top-level,

but is a much-improved horse from the one who

finished sixth behind Pentland Hills in the Anniversary

Hurdle at this fixture two years ago.

The past two International winners to run in the

Aintree Hurdle were beaten, but previous winners

The New One and My Tent Or Yours were aging at

the time, and a record of three winners from five

runners (during the past 11 years) is good. On that

basis alone, respect the chance of Song For Someone,

should he turn up.

PREVIOUS AINTREE FORM

AS mentioned already, the Aintree Hurdle is a race

in which we have seen numerous multiple winners

in the past, and although the past two winners

don’t fall into this category, nine of the past

19 winners had previously won at this meeting, so

proven form at the track is a huge positive.

Supasundae might not have won at the Grand

National meeting prior to 2019’s win, but he

had finished runner-up in this race 12 months

earlier, as well as in the Stayers Liverpool Hurdle

in 2017. Therefore, he brought some solid placed

form to the table and form in this race is also

KEY TRENDS

Every British-trained winner had run at the

Cheltenham Festival

Since 1999, only 5 Champion Hurdle winners

have run and 3 have won

29 of the 43 winners had run in the

Champion Hurdle

13 of the past 26 winners were trained in

Ireland

The past 8 winners – and 11 of the past 14 –

had already won a Grade 1

7 of the past 10 winners finished in the first

4 of the Champion Hurdle

5 International Hurdle winners have run in

the past decade and 3 have won

Nicky Henderson has saddled 4 of the past

9 winners

Mares aged 5+ are 2/5 since 2006

Jessica Harrington runners are 2/3

Respect previous form at this meeting and

in this race (9 of the past 19 winners had

previously won at this meeting)

Only 1 of the past 18 Champion Hurdle

seconds to have run has been successful

Only 2 winning 5yos in the past 31 years

something that should be respected, with three

winners this decade having run in the race

12 months earlier. Of 2019’s runners, fourth home

Summerville Boy would be of interest if turning

up again, as he made a winning reappearance

over course-and-distance in November. Versatile

in terms of trip, I think this mid-range distance is

about right for him, and he remains relatively lightly-raced

for his age.

THE IRISH CHALLENGE

SUPASUNDAE became the third Irish-trained

winner in the past five renewals, but more significantly,

the 13th in the past 26 years. During this

period, the Irish have had 55 runners in the race

and backing them all blindly would have yielded a

profit of £24.02 to a level-stake of £1.

Those three recent winners all arrived at Aintree

on the back of running at the Cheltenham Festival,

whereas there was a time when an Irish horse who

had been given a ‘quieter’ preparation had a fine

record. Al Eile – ahead of the second and third of

his three wins in the race (also won the Anniversary

Hurdle, again highlighting the ‘course form’

trend) – and Solwhit all avoided the festival, as did

DAY ONE RACE FOUR


25

DAY ONE RACE FOUR

Sacundai before his win in 2003. The last-named

pairing had both won the Red Mills Trial Hurdle

(staged at Gowran Park, whilst the Guide was at

print stage) whilst Asian Maze also contested that

race, before falling in the Champion Hurdle. Again,

she was a previous winner at this meeting, having

won the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle 12 months earlier.

Like 2019’s winner, stablemate Jezki had

contested the more conventional 2m Grade 1s at

Leopardstown, earlier in the campaign. Both horses

finished runner-up in the Matheson Hurdle over

Christmas, before going on to hit the frame in the

Irish Champion Hurdle.

RESPECT MARES

ALTHOUGH Annie Power is the only mare to have

taken her chance in this race in the past decade,

any mare that does line up should be respected.

If ignoring any four-year-old fillies (more of the

age angle shortly), only five mares have taken

their chance in the Aintree Hurdle since 2006 and

two were successful, the other being Asian Maze.

Like-A-Butterfly and United have also both

finished third.

Honeysuckle is a mare who could be tailor-made

for this race, although a lot will obviously depend

on how she gets on in the Champion Hurdle. Having

won the Irish equivalent for a second successive

season, she is set to run in the feature on day one

at the festival (rather than in the Mares’ Hurdle that

she won last year) and her performance at Cheltenham,

over the minimum trip, will likely determine

future targets. 2m4f around Aintree would be

perfect for her, and Henry de Bromhead does like

to target the meeting, so we live in hope.

AGE FOR CONCERN

AL EILE and Solwhit are the only five-year-old

winners of the Aintree Hurdle in the past 32 years,

and such runners should be treated with caution.

Although the number of five-year-olds running here

wouldn’t be as great as in the Champion Hurdle, it is

still quite a damming statistic, and we have seen the

likes of The New One and Zarkandar beaten in this

at five, before returning to win the race. At the other

end of the scale, Mister Morose is the sole doubledigit

winner, landing this as a 10-year-old in 2000.

TRAINERS TO NOTE

NICKY Henderson has saddled four winners since

2011, and also seen three of his horses finish second

during the past four runnings. Given his record in

the Champion Hurdle, this should come as no real

surprise, as he excels in this division.

Henderson’s close friend Jessica Harrington has

now saddled two winners of the Aintree Hurdle in

the past six years. Harrington has actually only had

three runners in the past decade, with Supasundae

finishing second in 2018, so her form figures stand

at a hugely respectable 121.

ROLL OF HONOUR



2019 2227 Supasundae 9 11-7 161 15/2 J Harrington (IRE) 7 7th Gr.1 Stayers’ Hurdle (21)

2018 12238 L’Ami Serge 8 11-7 159 5/1 N Henderson 9 8th Gr.1 Stayers’ Hurdle (28)

2017 1111 Buveur d’Air 6 11-7 167 4/9F N Henderson 6 1st Gr.1 Champion Hurdle (23)

2016 111 Annie Power 8 11-0 162 4/9F W Mullins (IRE) 6 1st Gr.1 Champion Hurdle (23)

2015 12234 Jezki 7 11-7 166 3/1 J Harrington (IRE) 6 4th Gr.1 Champion Hurdle (30)

2014 1123 The New One 6 11-7 167 4/9F Nigel Twiston-Davies 7 3rd Gr.1 Champion Hurdle (23)

2013 F1114 Zarkandar 6 11-7 167 11/2 P Nicholls 9 4th Gr.1 Champion Hurdle (23)

2012 F1115 Oscar Whisky 7 11-7 167 9/4 N Henderson 5 5th Gr.1 Stayers' Hurdle (30)

2011 113 Oscar Whisky 6 11-7 165 6/1 N Henderson 8 3rd Gr.1 Champion Hurdle (25)


Champion Hurdle 6 (Oscar Whisky 3rd, Zarkandar 4th, The New One 3rd,

Jezki 4th, Annie Power 1st, Buveur d’Air 1st)

*Aintree Hurdle 3 (Oscar Whisky 1st, Zarkandar fell, The New One 2nd)

International Hurdle 2 (Zarkandar 1st, The New One 1st)

Stayers’ Hurdle 3 (Oscar Whisky 5th, L’Ami Serge 8th, Supasundae 7th)

Irish Champion Hurdle 2 (Jezki 3rd, Supasundae 2nd)

Matheson Hurdle 2 (Jezki 2nd, Supasundae 2nd)



Nicholls

HAS AINTREE ON HIS MIND

ALTHOUGH he will clearly be readying a big team

for the Cheltenham Festival – which will be headed

by the exciting Bravemansgame and last year’s

Queen Mother Champion Chase winner Politologue

– Paul Nicholls has already suggested that

three of his bigger names will bypass Cheltenham

with Aintree in mind. Whilst Aintree is often an

afterthought for many, it is clear that the former

champion trainer believes that there are better

options on Merseyside for some of his stars.

Third behind Might Bite in the 2018 Betway

Bowl, and runner-up to Kemboy the following year,

that is the likely spring target for Clan des Obeaux,

although Nicholls did also suggest that Punchestown

would be an option for him. He will skip this

year’s festival, having not really seen the trip out

in either of the past two runnings of the Gold

Cup, and arriving at Aintree as a fresh horse will

surely enhance his claims. Whilst a trip to Ireland

is also a possible option, I would be surprised if

Nicholls didn’t primarily target Aintree, with prizemoney

to be won towards the trainers’

title, plus the likelihood of meeting

less of an Irish challenge. He travelled

supremely well in this season’s

Betfair Chase (before his stamina

gave way) and that gutsy effort on

heavy ground probably

took the edge off his bid

to land a third successive

King George.

McFabulous won the Grade 2 bumper at this

meeting in 2019, and although he holds an entry

in the Stayers’ Hurdle, he is expected to skip that

contest in favour of the Aintree Hurdle. The 2m4f

trip on this flat track ought to be right up his

street, as he showed when winning the re-routed

Relkeel Hurdle at Kempton (pictured below).

A smooth-travelling half-brother to Waiting

Patiently, he is likely to head to Sandown on the

final day of the season, so could have a big role

to play in the outcome of the championship. As

for Aintree, he will be bidding to become the first

British-trained winner of the race to have skipped

Cheltenham, but in his case, I think it is a positive.

The unbeaten (at the time of writing) Monmiral

is set to bypass the Triumph Hurdle with Aintree’s

Anniversary 4YO Hurdle in mind, a race which

Nicholls has won on three occasions since 2003,

with Le Duc, Zarkandar and All Yours. A horse

who impressed me when winning his sole start in

France, I was taken with him – physically – when

seeing him at Nicholls’ yard last summer, and he

has won both starts in England to date. A winner

at Exeter under a penalty, he followed up with a

bloodless success in the Grade 2 Summit Juvenile

Hurdle at Doncaster, and he will probably have

run in Haydock’s Victor Ludorum by the time you

read this. He is an exciting prospect for fences next

season, so the decision to avoid the Triumph and

go to Aintree is a measured one with long-term

implications. A four-year-old with a huge future

ahead of him, he is a horse I am excited about

seeing at Aintree, but even more so once sent

chasing in the autumn.


29

DAY ONE RACE FIVE

RANDOX HEALTH

FOXHUNTERS’

OPEN HUNTERS’ CHASE

2m 5f 19y – National Course

OVERVIEW

THE first of the three races at the meeting staged on the Grand National course, the Foxhunters’

offers amateur jockeys the chance of glory over the most famous of fences. Recent winning jockeys

include Derek O’Connor, Jamie Codd and Nina Carberry, whilst Sam Waley-Cohen won the race

on three occasions between 2005 and 2014, so jockey bookings – as is often the case in amateurrider

events – are important.

TACTICS

RATHER like on the Mildmay Course, in the two

races over this intermediate trip over the Grand

National fences (the other being the Topham on

day two) it can also pay to race up with the speed.

2019’s winner Top Wood was never too far from the

pace and took up the running on the home bend.

If a good jumper can get into a nice rhythm on the

front end, they can prove difficult to pass.

The same connections of Top Wood – Kelly

Morgan and Sir Johnny Weatherby – could be

represented by Red Indian this year, and he, too,

has the right style of racing for this course. The

bold-jumping nine-year-old likes to race up with

the pace, and has been in fine form in Point-to-

Points this season. Another horse who I had in mind

for the race this time last year was Wishing And

Hoping, who is another who likes to race prominently,

and is not short of speed.

CHELTENHAM vs FRESH

TOP WOOD became the seventh winner since

2008 to have contested the St James’s Place

Foxhunter Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase.

Kelly Morgan’s runner had finished placed at Cheltenham

for a second successive season, whilst

2018 winner Balnaslow finished seventh at Cheltenham

before landing this race. In both 2015

and 2016, the classy On The Fringe completed

the Cheltenham-Aintree double, and in fact,

in both years went on to make it an incredible

spring festival treble by winning at Punchestown.

Clearly, we have to pay healthy respect to the Cheltenham

form.

If looking at those who skipped the festival, you

should be looking at a horse who recorded a first

or second last-time-out. The past eight winners of

this race to have missed Cheltenham fell into this

category. In addition to this, in recent years only

Katarino – who won back-to-back renewals in 2005

and 2006 – failed to run within 40 days of the race.

He had the year off in between his two wins, but

usually it can pay to focus on those in-form.

TOUCH OF QUALITY

TOP WOOD might not have had the Rules form of

some recent winners – Katarino, On The Fringe,

Scots Grey, Baby Run and Cloudy Lane to name a

few – but he did run in a Pertemps Final (off a mark

of 140) and a Scottish Grand National (144) when

trained by David Pipe, so clearly possessed a fair

amount of ability. Katarino was a Grade 1 winner

whose form stood out in this sphere, but plenty

of other winners had decent form, so it can pay

to look at the back-class a horse possesses.

Decent form under Rules is an obvious positive.


GRAND NATIONAL COURSE FORM

TOP WOOD was having his first taste of the famous

fences, but prior to 2019’s race, 10 of the previous

14 winners had some sort of course experience.

The previous two winners – Dineur and Balnaslow

– had finished runner-up in the previous year’s

Randox Health Foxhunters’ Open Hunters’

Chase, whilst On The Fringe won back-to-back

renewals prior to this. Warne had finished fourth

the year before he won the race, so four of the

past six winners had finished in the first four

12 months earlier.

Going back a little further, Katarino is another

who won successive renewals (2005 & 2006),

whilst Cloudy Lane had contested three Grand

Nationals before his win in the race. Although there

were two years between races, Christy Beamish

finished runner-up in 2006, then won the race in

2008. Therefore, pay healthy respect to form over

the Grand National fences and, in particular, a positive

run in this race previously.

AGE

IN the past 16 years, only one nine-year-old has

been successful (Silver Adonis), with the other

15 winners all being aged 10 or older. Plenty of

‘younger horses’ won prior to this, with five of the 11

winners between 1993 and 2003 being aged eight

(1) or nine (4), but certainly in recent years, it has

paid to focus on the older horses.

MARKET FORCES

DESPITE seeing winners priced at 50/1 and 100/1

in the past 11 years, this race tends to go the way of

a horse towards the top of the betting. Since 1995,

only five winners came from outside of the top four

in the market, with 10 favourites successful during

this 27-year period (8 outright, 2 joint). Top Wood

was sent off at 14/1 in 2019, and although failing to

add to that strong statistic, was actually fifth in the

betting so only just missed out.

In total, 22 of the past 27 winners were sent off

at single-figure odds. Shocks can happen, but they

are quite infrequent.

JOCKEYS

AS touched upon in the Overview – and rather like

with the amateur races at the Cheltenham Festival –

close attention should be paid to jockey bookings.

Derek O’Connor won the race three years ago and

finished runner-up in 2019, whilst Nina Carberry

and Jamie Codd partnered On The Fringe to his

two wins. Other recent winning riders include

leading amateurs such as Richard Burton, Josh

Guerriero, Tom Greenall, Willie Twiston-Davies,

KEY TRENDS

10 of the past 15 winners had previous

experience over the Grand National fences

19 of the past 27 winners started favourite

or second favourite

6 of the past 11 winners had contested the

Foxhunter at Cheltenham

22 of the past 27 winners were sent off at

single-figure odds

14 of the past 15 winners were aged 10 or

older


4 last year

Focus on those who race prominently

Focus on the more familiar jockeys

Sam Waley-Cohen has ridden 3 winners

since 2005

Irish-trained horses have won 4 of the past

6 renewals

Respect those with good form under Rules

The past 8 winners to have avoided

Cheltenham finished 1st (5) or 2nd (3) last

time out

Be wary of out-of-form horses (look for a

win or a place last time out unless hailing

from the Foxhunter at Cheltenham)

Only 5 winners in the past 27 years started

outside of the first four in the betting

Richard Harding, Jamie Hamilton and James King.

Plus, Sam Waley-Cohen (pictured below) was won

the race on three occasions since 2005, whilst

also having partnered two Topham winners, so his

record over the big fences is very good.

WARNE

DAY ONE RACE FIVE


31

DAY ONE RACE FIVE

RED INDIAN COULD BE WELL-SUITED TO THE COURSE AT AINTREE

ROLL OF HONOUR



2019 3 Top Wood 12 12-0 137 14/1 K Morgan 27 3rd Cheltenham Foxhunter Chase (20)

2018 27 Balnaslow 11 12-0 132 11/2 G McKeever 21 7th Cheltenham Foxhunter Chase (27)

2017 U72 Dineur 11 12-0 129 16/1 M Bowen 28 2nd Chepstow Hunters’ Chase (14)

2016 171 On The Fringe 11 12-0 147 15/8F E Bolger (IRE) 22 1st Cheltenham Foxhunter Chase (20)

2015 11221 On The Fringe 10 12-0 141 5/2F E Bolger (IRE) 29 1st Cheltenham Foxhunter Chase (27)

2014 431 Warne 10 12-0 135 7/2 B Hamilton (IRE) 21 1st Fairyhouse Hunters’ Chase (40)

2013 55212 Tartan Snow 13 12-0 117 100/1 S Coltherd 24 2nd Carlisle Hunters’ Chase (18)

2012 216 Cloudy Lane 12 12-0 126 4/1JF D McCain 26 6th. Cheltenham Foxhunter Chase (27)

2011 11U Baby Run 11 12-0 136 3/1F N Twiston-Davies 22 u.r. Cheltenham Foxhunter Chase (20)


Cheltenham Foxhunter 6 (Baby Run u.r., Cloudy Lane 6th, On The Fringe 1st & 1st,

Balnaslow 7th, Top Wood 3rd)

*Aintree Foxhunters’ 5 (Baby Run u.r., Warne 4th, On The Fringe 1st, Dineur 2nd, Balnaslow 2nd)



CLOSE BROTHERS RED RUM

HANDICAP CHASE

Grade 3, 1m 7f 176y

DAY ONE RACE SIX

OVERVIEW

A competitive handicap chase over the minimum trip, the Red Rum is often fiercely run and can,

therefore, be one race over fences on the Mildmay course in which it is possible to come from off the

pace. However, Moon Over Germany made virtually all in 2019 when becoming the fourth successive

novice winner of the race. He was also the only winner on day one of the meeting who hadn’t

run at the Cheltenham Festival.

NOVICES

AS well as becoming the fourth consecutive

novice winner of the race, Moon Over Germany

became the 11th novice to win the race this century.

Jungli, Dark’n Sharp, Tidour, Fota Island and Jacks

Craic were all successful novices between 2000

and 2006, after which Oh Crick and Edgardo Sol

were the only two novice winners between 2007

and 2015. Things have very much swung back in

favour of the lightly-raced chaser in the past four

years and novices warrant considerable respect.

Regular readers of my work will know that I am very

much in favour of siding with novices in handicaps

and the record of such horses is there for all to see.

Bentelimar was much the most experienced

of the novice winners this century, having had 14

runs over fences, whilst Jacks Craic was another

‘experienced’ novice, winning this on his 9th start.

The other nine novice winners had all raced

between three and six times over fences, prior to

the Red Rum.

2019’s winner Moon Over Germany hadn’t

won a race in four attempts over fences and was

the second maiden winner of the race this

century, Dark’n Sharp also arriving at Aintree as

a maiden, although he had finished third in the

Grand Annual on his previous start (more of that

race shortly).

AVOIDING THE FESTIVAL

AS touched upon already, Moon Over Germany was

the only winner on the opening day of the 2019

meeting who hadn’t been in action at Cheltenham.

He also became the fifth winner of the Red Rum

in the past six years (and the seventh in the past

decade) to match this profile. So, perhaps this is

one race when it can pay to give serious consideration

to those who avoided the festival. Other

than Surf And Turf – who had been freshened up

following a second over course-and-distance the

previous October – every other winner this decade

had run within six weeks of the Red Rum.

CHELTENHAM FORM

IN contrast to the recency bias leaning towards

those who missed the festival, nine of the past

18 winners did contest a race at the Cheltenham

Festival. Between 2002 and 2013, six of the

12 winners had run in the Johnny Henderson Grand

Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase with both

Fota Island (2005) and Oh Crick (2009) completing

the double. Like Dark’n Sharp, Oiseau de Nuit

finished third in the Grand Annual, whilst Bambi de

l’Orme finished fifth at Cheltenham before winning

the Red Rum.

Champagne At Tara finished only ninth in the

Grand Annual in 2019, before hitting the frame in


33

DAY ONE RACE SIX

this, and a good performance in the 2m contest on

Gold Cup day should be viewed upon positively.

However, it is now eight years since the Red Rum

winner contested the Grand Annual, and only once

in the past 11 years has this happened.

The most recent winner of this to run at the

festival was Double W’s, who failed to stay when

only ninth in the Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap

Chase over an extra half-mile. Edgardo Sol finished

runner-up in the County Hurdle before reverting to

fences to win this, whilst Tidour was a faller in the

Arkle. If looking at a Cheltenham runner, look for

one who shaped well or showed promise in defeat.

Away from the festival, both Parsnip Pete and

Bentelimar contested the Spreadex Handicap

Chase, a class 2 event at the December meeting.

This season’s renewal was won in taking fashion by

the enigmatic Sky Pirate, who was the best part of

four lengths too good for Ibleo, who won at Sandown

the following month. As is often the case, that

looked like potentially strong form.


BOTH Edgardo Sol and Surf And Turf had shown

a liking for Aintree earlier in the campaign, with

the former winning a novices’ handicap chase

the previous October and the latter finishing

runner-up in a handicap at the same fixture.

That meeting no longer has a 2m handicap chase

(of any description), but the November fixture –

just 13 days later – plays host to the 2m William

Hill Lengthen Your Odds Handicap Chase, a race

won this season by The Big Bite. Now in the care

of Henry Oliver, the imposing eight-year-old would

be of interest if returning in April for the Red Rum.

He would be one to note if we got another softground

Aintree.

Oiseau de Nuit is a good example of a horse

returning to this event on more than one occasion,

as he had twice finished in the first sixth,

before winning the Red Rum at the fourth attempt.

In recent years we have also seen Theinval twice

finish runner-up in this event and he was a handicap

hurdle winner at the meeting back in 2015.

Respect previous form at the track, although the

past couple of winners have shown that it is far

from essential.

FLAT-TRACK FORM

WHILST Aintree form might not be a necessity,

plenty of recent winners have shown a liking for

a flat track and form on such courses can also be

viewed upon in a positive light. Whilst there aren’t

too many flat tracks in Ireland, Moon Over Germany

had finished runner-up in a Grade 2 novice hurdle

KEY TRENDS

11 winners this century – including the past

4 – were novices


lower

14 of the past 19 winners were rated in the

130s

13 of the past 18 winners returned 10/1 or

shorter

9 winners this century had run between 3-6

times over fences

5 of the past 6 winners avoided the

Cheltenham Festival

9 of the past 18 winners did run at the

Cheltenham Festival

The past 5 winners were Irish-bred

French-bred horses have won 6 renewals

this century

Respect previous Aintree form

Respect flat-track form

Respect Henry de Bromhead

Only 3 winners this century weren’t Irish- or

French-bred

Only 2 winners this century carried more

than 11-2

Only 1 winner this century was rated higher

than 143

Be wary of Nicky Henderson-trained runners

around Fairyhouse, and the likes of Bentelimar

(Kempton), Parsnip Pete (Ludlow) and Silk Drum

(Doncaster) all had their prep-run for this on

speed-based tracks. Double W’s and Katachenko

had both won over fences at Wetherby earlier in

the season, so pay close attention to those with

form on flat-tracks, where the emphasis is quite

often on speed.

BREEDING

IRISH-BRED horses have come to the fore again

in recent years and all bar three winners this

century – Dark’n Sharp (GER), Stan (NZ) and Parsnip

Pete (GB) – were either French- or Irish-bred.

Plenty has been made of French-bred horses for

various races earlier in this year’s Guide, and they

were responsible for six winners in the space of 10

years, between 2004 and 2013. The Irish started

the century strongly, winning five of the seven

runnings between 2000 and 2006, and have

again taken control of the race, winning the past

five renewals.


During those past five renewals, 42 of the 72

runners in the Red Rum were Irish-bred (58%) and

backing them all blind during this period would

have yielded a level-stake profit of £28.50 to a

level-stake £1.

OFFICIAL RATINGS AND WEIGHTS

MOON OVER GERMANY made it 16 winners from

20 this century to have fallen below the 140 marker.

During the past 20 years, only Fota Island (142),

Silk Drum (141), Edgardo Sol (143) and Oiseau de

Nuit (149) have won from a mark in excess of 139.

The past six winners were all rated in the 130s,

as were eight of the 10 winners between 2001

and 2010.

In terms of weight carried, only two winners

this century have shouldered more than 11-2, those

being Fota Island (11-10) and Oiseau de Nuit (11-8).

MARKET FORCES

ALTHOUGH Edgardo Sol is the only winning favourite

during the past decade, the last four winners all

started at 10/1 or shorter, with Moon Over Germany

heavily backed into second favourite just before

the off in 2019. Dark’n Sharp, Tidour, Fota Island

and Oh Crick all justified favouritism between

2002 and 2009, and overall since 2002, 13 of the

18 winners returned with a starting price of 10/1

or shorter.

TRAINERS TO NOTE

I HAVE previously highlighted the fact that Henry

de Bromhead – one of the Irish trainers who seems

to take the Aintree Grand National meeting seriously

– had saddled three placed horses in this race

from six runners, and he got his first win in the

race with Moon Over Germany. His overall record at

Aintree stands at six winners from 48 runners, and

he, of course, landed the Grade 1 Maghull Novices’

Chase (for a third time in seven years) with Ornua.

De Bromhead does well with 2m chasers in general,

so respect anything he saddles here.

HENRY DE BROMHEAD

In contrast – and again as highlighted last year

– Nicky Henderson has struggled in the Red Rum,

although given the number of runners which he

has saddled in the Grand Annual – which is, of

course, named in memory of his late father – it is

likely that the Cheltenham contest is the 2m-handicap

which he targets first and foremost, and this

could be somewhat of an afterthought. In 2019, he

was represented by Whatswrongwithyou, who was

sent off at just 7/1 but could finish no better than

eighth (having finished seventh at Cheltenham).

Since 2003 (no runners between 2000-2002),

Henderson has saddled 19 runners without success,

so his runners should be treated with a degree

of caution.

DAY ONE RACE SIX

ROLL OF HONOUR



2019 3274 Moon Over Germany 8 10-7 136 11/2 H de Bromhead (IRE) 13 4th Thurles Chase (42)

2018 03227 Bentelimar 9 10-8 135 10/1 C Longsdon 16 7th Kempton Handicap Chase (28)

2017 11729 Double W’s 7 11-1 139 8/1 M Jefferson 14 9th Listed Cheltenham Nov. Chase (33)

2016 21223 Katachenko 7 10-10 133 9/1 D McCain 12 3rd Carlisle Nov. Chase (18)

2015 23222 Surf And Turf 9 10-5 132 33/1 K Frost 17 2nd Aintree Handicap Chase (165)

2014 10246 Parsnip Pete 8 10-10 134 16/1 T George 16 6th Ludlow Handicap Chase (14)

2013 16663 Oiseau de Nuit 11 11-8 149 20/1 C Tizzard 17 3rd Gr.3 Grand Annual Handicap Chase (20)

2012 14352 Edgardo Sol 5 11-0 143 9/2F P Nicholls 13 2nd Gr.3 County Hurdle (27)

2011 1U5 Silk Drum 6 9-9 141 9/1 H Johnson 13 5th Doncaster Handicap Chase (31)


Spreadex Handicap Chase 2 (Parsnip Pete 4th, Bentelimar 3rd)


35

DAY TWO RACE ONE

ORRELL PARK

HANDICAP HURDLE

Grade 3, 2m 4f

OVERVIEW

ANOTHER competitive handicap to kick-off day two, the Orrell Park Handicap Hurdle is another race

at the meeting in which novices have fared well in recent years. This 2m4f event usually – I say usually,

for when the ground is good (which has not been the case at the past two meetings) – requires a

horse with the tactical speed to hold their position in what is usually a big field and run at a strong

pace. Formerly a Listed contest, it was handed Grade 3 status in 2014.

NOVICES

NO fewer than eight novices went to post in 2019

(21 runners) and only Canardier could finish in the

first five home. The market was headed by a novice

– the Jonjo O’Neill-trained Tedham – and although

it has now been three years without a novice

winner, nine of the past 18 winners were novices.

Touching on 2019’s novices again, the octet

included subsequent season’s Grade 1-winning

novice chaser, Esprit du Large, who was running

off a mark of 132. In hindsight, he wasn’t ready for

such a test, but it is a good example as to why trainers/owners

find the handicap option an attractive

one, with a lightly-raced horse.

The last novice winner was Rather Be, who was

providing trainer Nicky Henderson with a third

win in the race in the space of five years, and all

three were novices. Of the Henderson trio, French

import Theinval was very experienced for a novice

(13 runs), whilst the 2011 winner Russian War

had run 11 times prior to winning this. The other

winning novices had run between three and seven

times apiece.

LIGHTLY-RACED HURDLERS

IN addition to the recent winning novices, between

2007 and 2013 Two Miles West, Sir Harry Ormeshar

and Clondaw Kaempfer all won this race on the

back of six or seven hurdles runs. And, even 2019’s

winner Three Musketeers was hardly exposed over

hurdles, having had just nine previous runs over

the smaller obstacles. He was reverting back from

chasing on what was his first start for Gordon Elliott,

and in total during the past 18 renewals, 11 of

the winners had run no more than nine times over

hurdles.

Pay close attention to both novices and lightly-raced

hurdlers in general. This is a theory which

I apply to all handicaps, but it seems an especially

good angle as far as this race in concerned.


THE past two winners arrived at Aintree on the

back of a short break, and, in fact, only one of the

past five winners – that being Rather Be, who got

no further than the second flight in the Martin Pipe

at Cheltenham – had run at the festival.

Attaglance won the Martin Pipe before

completing the Cheltenham-Aintree double for

the late Malcolm Jefferson, whilst three winners

between 2006 and 2014 contested the Coral Cup.

Strangely Brown finished runner-up at Cheltenham,

whilst Sir Harry Ormeshar and Clondaw Kaempfer

were both unplaced.

The only other two winners this century to

have run at the festival were Zibeline (unplaced


in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle) and Sunnyhillboy

(unplaced in the County Hurdle). Clearly, if you

fancy a horse who ran at the festival, don’t be put

off if they failed to hit the frame.

CURRENT FORM

ONLY five winners this century won last-time-out,

those being Ravenswood (2002), Genghis (2005)

and, more recently, Attaglance, Minella Forfitness

and Theinval, whilst three winners – Patriot Games

(2003), Two Miles West (2007) and Russian War

– hadn’t run during the calendar year, so look out

for those returning from a lay-off.

In terms of runs earlier in the season, only one

of the past 15 winners had failed to run at least

three times.


GOING all the way back to the start of the

century, Quakers Field won this race having won the

Anniversary 4-Y-O Hurdle some three years earlier.

Six years later, Strangely Brown won this race having

contested the Anniversary the previous season, with

the Charles Byrnes-trained five-year-old having

finished third in the Grade 1 juvenile contest.

Since then, Clondaw Kaempfer and Party Rock

were previous course-and-distance winners prior

to landing this race, and the former would return

to run well behind Rather Be some three years

later. Theinval might not have boasted any previous

Aintree form prior to his win, but he would later

develop into a standing dish at this fixture, and

proven form around the track is certainly advantageous

when it comes to this event.

Last year’s winner Three Musketeers may not

have won previously at the track, but he boasted

plenty of course experience – including a mid-field

finish in the 2018 renewal – and the pick of his

course form was a third place in the Grade 1 Mersey

Novices’ Hurdle of 2015. Jester Jet was another

with placed form to her name, as she had finished

third on her two previous runs at Aintree.

TACTICS

AS touched upon already, hold-up horses are much

more suited to the hurdles track than the chase

course at Aintree and that is very much the case

in this event. Horses who attempt to race up with

the pace tend to struggle here, due to the large

field and the fact that they will – almost certainly

– be pressed for the lead. Look for a smooth-travelling

horse, who is well able to hold their position

in a strongly-run race. If the ground is on the good

side, a turn of foot at the business end of the race

is also a positive.

KEY TRENDS

9 of the past 18 winners were novices

Nicky Henderson-trained novices have won

3 of the past 7 renewals

13 of the 20 winners this century missed

Cheltenham

11 of the past 18 winners had run 9 times or

less over hurdles

8 of the past 11 winners were rated in the 130s

3 winners this century hadn’t run during the

calendar year

Don’t be put off by an unplaced effort last

time out

Respect previous Aintree form

Respect JP McManus-owned runners

Gordon Elliott has had 2 winners from

4 runners

Only 5 winners this century won last-time-out

Only 1 of the past 15 winners failed to run at

least 3 times earlier in the season

Only 1 of the past 5 winners ran at the

Cheltenham Festival

Only 3 of the past 15 winners carried more

than 11-2


than 11-4

Prominently-ridden horses tend to struggle

Paul Nicholls is 0-14 in the past 10 renewals

WEIGHTS AND RATINGS

SINCE 2002, only three horses have shouldered

more than 11-2 to success in the Orrell Park Handicap

Hurdle, with only Attaglance carrying more

than 11-4. Of the 15 winners, 13 carried 11st or less,

with 11 of them carrying between 10-1 and 10-13. In

2019, only Canardier (3rd) carried more than 11st

among the first eight home.

In terms of official BHA Ratings, Three Musketeers

scored off 132 and became the eighth winner in

11 years to win from in the 130s. The past four

winners were all rated in the 130s.

CONNECTIONS TO NOTE

THE recent good run of Nicky Henderson has

already been well-documented, and although

neither of his runners in the past two renewals

have gone close, his record is very good indeed.

As stated previously, his three recent winners were

all novices, whilst he has also had a trio of placed

horses since 2012.

Three Musketeers provided Gordon Elliott with

DAY TWO RACE ONE


39

DAY TWO RACE ONE

a second win in the race since 2011. Elliott has actually

only saddled four runners in this race during

the past decade and backing them blindly would

have yielded a very tidy profit of £22 to a levelstake

of £1.

Jonjo O’Neill is the other trainer who has won

this race more than once in recent seasons, with

Two Miles West and Sunnyhillboy providing him

with two winners in the space of three years.

Since then, he has seen the likes of The Saint

James, Champagne At Tara (who also placed

in the 2019 Red Rum) and Dream Berry hit the

frame. Although Tedham was unable to

enhance his good record in the race in 2019,

any horse sent out of Jackdaws Castle is worth a

second glance.

In contrast, there are several big-named trainers

yet to win this race, one being Paul Nicholls, whose

record stands at 0-14 in the past 10 renewals. Of

those 14 runners, only two horses – four-year-old

Pistolet Noir and the year older Caid du Berlais –

have hit the frame.

Nicholls’ former assistant Dan Skelton actually

saddled 2019’s winner in the 2018 renewal

(before he switched yards to Gordon Elliott) and

is another who seems to be keen on targeting

this race. However, his record stands at 0-7 during

the past six renewals and he has yet to have a horse

go close.

Finally, as touched upon in previous years, leading

owner JP McManus has won this race on no

fewer than five occasions since 1998. More recently,

he had four horses finish second or third between

2015 and 2017, and although Project Bluebook

didn’t get involved in 2019, his runners still deserve

plenty of respect. Rather like the Cheltenham Festival

handicaps, McManus likes to have runners in

these valuable events.

THREE MUSKETEERS

J P MCMANUS

ROLL OF HONOUR



2019 738 Three Musketeers 9 10-5 132 8/1 G Elliott (IRE) 21 8th Haydock Handicap Chase (75)

2018 213P2 Jester Jet 8 10-9 133 20/1 T Lacey 19 2nd Listed Warwick Mares’ Hurdle (62)

2017 112U Rather Be 6 11-2 136 10/1 N Henderson 22 u.r. Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle (21)

2016 P Party Rock 9 10-8 130 33/1 J Candish 22 p.u.. Sandown Handicap Hurdle (20)

2015 61521 Theinval 5 11-4 144 7/1 N Henderson 21 1st Kempton Handicap Hurdle (27)

2014 930 Clondaw Kaempfer 6 11-4 137 10/1 D McCain 22 14th Gr.3 Coral Cup (23)

2013 311 Minella Forfitness 6 10-3 135 10/1 N Henderson 21 1st Doncaster Nov. Hurdle (43)

2012 35P11 Attaglance 6 11-12 144 14/1 M Jefferson 21 1st Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle (28)

2011 10110 Russian War 8 10-1 128 16/1 G Elliott (IRE) 22 10th Cheltenham Handicap Hurdle (145)


Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle 2 (Attaglance 1st, Rather Be u.r.)


BETWAY

TOP NOVICES’ HURDLE

Grade 1, 2m 103y

DAY TWO RACE TWO

OVERVIEW

HANDED Grade 1 status in 2016, the Top Novices’ Hurdle has been dominated by Nicky Henderson

runners in recent seasons, and it is a race that offers the perfect opportunity for horses who ran well

in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle to gain some spring festival compensation.

SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE

WITHOUT doubt, the obvious place to start when

assessing the Top Novices’ Hurdle is the Sky Bet

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle from the Cheltenham

Festival. Although the winner rarely attempts to

follow up (the last one to try was Menorah, who

finished runner-up in 2010), Felix Desjy maintained

the fantastic record of horses coming out of the

festival opener to go on and win this. Since 1999,

12 of the 21 winners had contested the Supreme,

with 10 of them finishing in the first six at Cheltenham.

Remembering that there was no festival in

2001, this is a very strong statistic indeed.

Five of these winners finished runner-up in the

Supreme, and only six during this period – since Joe

Mac won in 1999 – have tried. The one who failed

(Westender) finished second here, too, and it also

has to be remembered that Best Mate and Spirit Son

both won the Mersey Novices’ Hurdle after finishing

runner-up in the Supreme, whilst Binocular won the

Anniversary. So, in total, of the past nine Supreme

seconds to have run at Aintree, eight have won.

2019’s Supreme second, Thomas Darby, didn’t

head to Aintree, but his stablemate Itchy Feet

(finished 3rd) did. Along with Aramon (6th) and

Felix Desjy of course, there were three ‘Supreme

runners’ in 2019’s Top Novices’ and they finished

first, second and fourth.

Looking strictly at the past decade, seven of the

past 10 winners contested the Supreme, so pay

serious respect to any runners hailing from the first

race of the Cheltenham Festival.

FELIX PROVIDES A RARE IRISH WIN

IN 2019, I highlighted the fact that since the win

of Joe Mac in 1999, the Irish have really struggled

and the record of Irish-trained horses this century

(prior to the latest renewal) stood at 0/23. There

were only two Irish runners among the seven

strong-field and they finished first and second, with

Aramon chasing home Felix Desjy, who provided

Gigginstown House Stud with a first win in the

race. They had seen their Petit Mouchoir chase

home Buveur d’Air in 2016, and as I’ve touched

upon in several other races, the leading owners

seem happy to send a strong team of horses to

Aintree each season, as does trainer Gordon Elliott.

2019’s winner became just the third Irish winner

in the 43 years since the Top Novices’ Hurdle was

introduced.

The fact that Fairyhouse’s Easter fixture (the Irish

Grand National meeting) is the weekend before

Aintree this year, and Punchestown starts less than

three weeks after this meeting, means that the Irish

representation might be a little thin on the ground

this year, with plenty of options on home soil.

BUMPER FORM

FELIX DESJY became the fourth winner in the past

seven to have contested at least one of the cham-


41

DAY TWO RACE TWO

pionship bumpers the previous spring. He actually

finished sixth in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham,

before going one place better in the Grade 1

at Punchestown. Obviously, we lost both that event

and the Grade 2 from this fixture last season, but

Third Time Lucki finished fourth in last season’s

Champion Bumper and is a horse who possesses

the pace to be fully effective around Aintree. He

has won three times over hurdles to date, and made

an untimely error at the final flight, when beaten by

the progressive Bareback Jack, in a tactical affair

at Musselburgh.

EX-FLAT HORSES

IN contrast to the bumper form which seems to

be coming to the fore (perhaps that is in some

way linked to the race now being a Grade 1),

horses switching from the Flat previously had a

good record in this race. Between 1993 and 2011,

12 ex-Flat horses were successful and Aramon went

close to becoming the first in eight years, when

runner-up in 2019. It is certainly worth noting that

the last four ex-Flat winners all skipped Cheltenham

and arrived at Aintree on the back of running

on similarly sharp courses.

Of those who are prominent in the ante-post

market for the Supreme Novices’ at Cheltenham,

Metier is the ex-Flat performer, and he has quickly

developed into a high-class novice for Harry Fry.

He was campaigned between 1m1½f and 1m4½f on

the level in Ireland, so clearly possesses plenty of

natural speed, although he does seem to require

soft ground, on all known form. Both the 2018 and

2019 Grand National meetings were staged under

such conditions, however (whereas we tend to

associate Aintree with better ground), so this could

well be an option for him if we don’t get a dry spell.

KEY TRENDS

12 of the past 21 winners contested the

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (10 of which

finished in the first 6)

The Supreme Novices’ runner-up is 5-6 in

the past 22 years

4 of the past 7 winners had contested a

championship bumper the previous season

Nicky Henderson has saddled 5 winners

since 2010

Respect Philip Hobbs

Respect the form of the EBF NH Novices’

Hurdle at Cheltenham in December

12 ex-Flat winners since 1993

(but none since 2011)

Treat the Premier Kelso Novices’ Hurdle

form with caution

Irish-trained horses are 1-25 this century

The Irish have won just 3 of the 43 renewals

(and only two since 1978)

OTHER NOTABLE RACES

GOING back to the Graded bumper angle, and

three winners since 2012 finished in the first four

of the Weatherbys Private Bank Standard Open

National Hunt Flat Race at this meeting, with only

Lalor completing the double. My Tent Or Yours

finished runner-up in the bumper here 12 months

before winning the Top Novices’ and stablemate

Buveur d’Air finished only fourth in the Grade 2

bumper. Obviously this race didn’t take place last

year.

Both Lalor and My Tent Or Yours contested

the Betfair Hurdle two months earlier, as did

Darlan, who looked to be travelling ominously well

when falling early up the home straight. Another

Newbury race worthy of a small mention is the

maiden hurdle from the Ladbrokes Winter Carnival,

with both Buveur d’Air and Pingshou contesting

that event. That race was won by My Drogo back in

November, after which he won the Grade 2 Kennel

Gate Novices’ Hurdle at Ascot.

The Supreme Novices’ aside, the race that most

commonly creeps up during the past decade is the

British EBF “National Hunt” Novices’ Hurdle at

Cheltenham’s December meeting. This is slightly

surprising as it is staged over 2m1f on the New

Course – which is often more about stamina – but

Lalor finished runner-up in the race, whilst General

Miller, Darlan and Pingshou were all successful. This

seasons renewal saw Make Me A Believer beat the

penalised Any News, although both horses might

be suited by further come the spring.

I have touched on the fact that Kempton form

often translates to Aintree’s Grand National meeting,

and both the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle and the

Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle (both staged the day

after this year’s Guide is published) provided

winners of this race, although not for a few years

now. The last winner to hail from either event was

Pierrot Lunaire, who finished runner-up to Binocular

in the Adonis, back in 2008.

In the past couple of years I have highlighted

the Premier Kelso Novices’ Hurdle as a race to

be wary of when it comes to Aintree, and 2019’s

winner Rouge Vif could finish only third in this

race. The likes of Mount Mews (sent off 9/4

joint-fav) and Glingerburn (sent off 7/4 fav) are

another pair of recent winners who failed to deliver


here. Again, this race takes place after publication

(6th March) and the form of the Grade 2 contest

should be treated with an air of caution.

TRAINERS TO NOTE

THERE was a time, not so long ago, when Nicky

Henderson was a trainer to take on at Aintree, but

that has changed in recent years and this race is

a prime example. The Lambourn-based maestro

saddled five winners of the Top Novices’ Hurdle in

the space of seven years – between 2010 and 2016

– and all five had contested the Supreme Novices’

at Cheltenham. Four of them had finished either

runner-up (3) or third (1), and in the past three

renewals, only one of his representatives had a

similar profile. Henderson also saddled the one-two

in both 2012 and 2013.

Philip Hobbs won three successive renewals at

the turn of the century – with Phardante Flyer, Ilico

II and In Contrast – and, again, two of those finished

in the first four of the Supreme. The year Ilico II

was successful was the year of the Foot And Mouth

outbreak (so there was no festival), so it appears

that Hobbs likes to run a horse in this if he is deemed

good enough to contest the festival opener. He

hasn’t had a runner in the race since Menorah tried

to complete the double in 2010 and only saddled

seven runners between 2000 and 2010.

DAY TWO RACE TWO

METIER

ROLL OF HONOUR



2019 75215 Felix Desjy 6 11-4 146 7/2 G Elliott (IRE) 7 5th Gr.1 Supreme Nov. Hurdle (24)

2018 2320 Lalor 6 11-4 133 14/1 K Woolacott 13 13th Gr.3 Newbury Handicap Hurdle (62)

2017 4140 Pingshou 7 11-4 133 16/1 C Tizzard 9 10th Gr.1 Supreme Nov. Hurdle (24)

2016 113 Buveur d’Air 5 11-4 152 11/4 N Henderson 11 3rd Gr.1 Supreme Nov. Hurdle (24)

2015 311 Cyrus Darius 6 11-4 141 8/1 M Jefferson 11 1st Hexham Nov. Hurdle (17)

2014 21122 Josses Hill 6 11-4 148 6/4F N Henderson 10 2nd Gr.1 Supreme Nov. Hurdle (30)

2013 12112 My Tent Or Yours 6 11-4 158 4/11F N Henderson 4 2nd Gr.1 Supreme Nov. Hurdle (24)

2012 111F2 Darlan 5 11-4 148 7/4F N Henderson 12 2nd Gr.1 Supreme Nov. Hurdle (31)

2011 41011 Topolski 5 11-4 145 11/2 D Arbuthnot 13 1st Newton Abbot Nov. Hurdle (20)


Supreme Novices’ Hurdle 6 (Darlan 2nd, My Tent Or Yours 2nd, Josses Hill 2nd, Buveur d’Air 3rd,

Pingshou 10th, Felix Desjy 5th)

EBF National Hunt Novices’ Hurdle 3 (Darlan 1st, Pingshou 1st, Lalor 2nd)

Betfair Hurdle 3 (Darlan fell, My Tent Or Yours 1st, Lalor 13th)

*Weatherbys Bank NH Flat Race 3 (My Tent Or Yours 2nd, Buveur d’Air 4th, Lalor 1st)

Newbury ‘National Hunt’ Maiden Hurdle 2 (Buveur d’Air 1st, Pingshou 4th)



43

DAY TWO RACE THREE

BETWAY MILDMAY

NOVICES’ CHASE

Grade 1, 3m 210y

OVERVIEW

A NOVICES’ chase with a classy roll of honour, Gold Cup winners Bregawn and Burrough Hill Lad

winning the first two renewals of the race, whilst a pair of subsequent Grand National winners –

Rhyme ‘n’ Reason and Royal Athlete – also feature among the first 10 winners.

Handed Grade 1 status in 2014, we are now likely to see more RSA winners attempt to complete

the double, and, indeed, Topofthegame tried (and failed) in 2019. Might Bite is the last horse to land

both contests, whilst the top-class pairing of Big Buck’s and Silviniaco Conti provided Paul Nicholls

with two of his four wins in the race.


LOSTINTRANSLATION became the seventh

straight winner of this race to have run at the previous

month’s Cheltenham Festival, and in the past 19

years, only three winners had skipped the festival.

The obvious race to focus on – to begin with – is

the RSA Insurance Novices’ Chase (now, of course,

re-named as the Festival Novices’ Chase), with six

winners since 2005 having contested that event.

Both Star de Mohaison and Might Bite completed

the double, whilst Aces Four finished fourth in the

RSA behind Denman, and Burton Port had finished

runner-up at the festival. Like-A-Butterfly fi n i s h e d

fifth at Cheltenham – and had time to run at Fairyhouse

in-between meetings – and Killyglen was

pulled up in the RSA.

Whilst the RSA form has to be taken very seriously,

it hasn’t proven an easy task for the winner

in the past 13 years, with only Might Bite supplementing

his Cheltenham success. During this time,

five RSA winners have run, the last being Topofthegame,

who finished runner-up. The others to

have suffered defeat in this race in recent years are

Albertas Run (3rd), O’Faolains Boy (5th) and Blaklion

(3rd). In 2019 it appeared that Topofthegame

struggled to back up his massive performance in

the RSA and it is certainly something to consider

seriously, should this year’s winner head to Aintree.

Three of the past seven winners – and the past

two – finished runner-up in the Marsh Novices’

Chase (formerly the JLT). Dynaste was the first

of those, whilst Terrefort and Lostintranslation

both filled the second spot in the 2m4f contest,

before appreciating the step up in trip (more

of that shortly). Champion Court is the only

runner-up from the Marsh to have been beaten in

this race (runner-up to Silviniaco Conti), so take

note if any horse follows a similar path.

The other recent winners of this race, who had

also run at the festival, were Holywell (won the

Ultima Handicap Chase), Saphir du Rheu (2nd in

the Stayers’ Hurdle) and Native River (2nd in the

National Hunt Chase). Given that the distance of

the National Hunt Chase has now been reduced,

that might well have an impact going forward, but

as things stand, it is very much the RSA and Marsh

which should be scrutinised most closely.

FELTHAM FACTOR

TOPOFTHEGAME was also representing the form

of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase – or the Feltham

– and although neither him, nor the first or second


from that race the previous season (Black Corton

and Elegant Escape) could land this, the recent

record of that race is very strong. Between 2012

and 2017, five of the six Mildmay winners had

contested the Boxing Day event at Kempton, with

only Dynaste completing the double. Might Bite

would have done the same had he not fallen at

the final fence, whilst Silviniaco Conti (2nd) and

Native River (3rd) both placed at Kempton. Saphir

du Rheu was another who fell in the race.

Comparisons between Kempton and Aintree

have been made when assessing earlier races

(notably the Betway Bowl) and this is another race

in which the form seems to stand up. This season’s

Kauto Star was won by Dan Skelton’s Shan Blue,

who jumped superbly to beat Colin Tizzard’s The

Big Breakaway, by the best part of four lengths.

Given his running style and the fact that he

possesses plenty of pace, Aintree should really be

a track that plays to his strengths over fences. His

first two wins came on a flat, left-handed track at

Wetherby. Skelton appears to have a strong crop

of novice chasers this season, and both the step up

to 3m and a trip to Aintree have been mentioned

for Protektorat, who looked like he would benefit

to reverting to a left-handed track when runner-up

in the re-arranged Dipper at Wincanton.


AS touched upon above, Lostintranslation ran really

well in the Mersey Novices’ Hurdle 12 months before

winning this race, and plenty of previous winners

had shown good form over hurdles at the track,

albeit going back a few years. Holywell had twice

finished runner-up at the track, once at this fixture

when chasing home Solwhit in the Ryanair Stayers

Liverpool Hurdle in 2013. Going back to the start

of the century, Barton had won the 1999 Mersey

Novices’ Hurdle and the 2001 Aintree Hurdle, whilst

What’s Up Boys had finished third in the Sefton

Novices’ Hurdle 12 months before his win. Simply

Supreme finished fourth in the Sefton the year

before his win and Like-A-Butterfly had finished

third in the Aintree Hurdle, some two years before

she won this, in what was her final race.

With no meeting in 2020, this is probably less

relevant this year, although one potential runner

who does boast strong form from this meeting

previously is If The Cap Fits. Fourth in the Grade 2

bumper back in 2017, he won the Ryanair Stayers

Hurdle at the meeting two years ago, and although

he has yet to fully convince as a chaser, he did

beat Fidderontheroof on debut and finished third

behind the aforementioned Shan Blue in the Kauto

Star on Boxing Day.

KEY TRENDS

15 of the past 18 winners ran at the

Cheltenham Festival

5 of the past 8 winners contested the Kauto

Star Novices’ Chase

Marsh Novices’ Chase runners-up are 3-4

The past 17 winners were Irish (10) or

French-bred (7)

French-bred 5yos are 3-8 since 2006

34 of the 39 winners had won at least twice

over fences

19 of the past 21 winners had run in at least

four chases

16 of the past 23 winners were aged

6 (6) or 7 (10)

Respect Grade 1 hurdles form at this meeting

Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls and Colin

Tizzard have won 10 of the past 17 renewals

between them (including the past 5)

4 of the past 5 RSA winners to have run

have been beaten

Only 2 of the past 15 winners skipped

Cheltenham

Only 5 winners in the past 30 years had

failed to win over 3m

Only 3 Irish-trained winners

Only 3 of the 39 winners were older than 8

No British-bred winner since 2002

PROVEN STAMINA AND EXPERIENCE

THE past two winners had something else in

common, other than finishing runner-up in the

Marsh Novices’ Chase, in that neither had run over

this far previously. Both had run over 2m6f without

success, but, in general, proven stamina has

been of benefit in this particular race. 2019’s winner

became just the fifth winner in the past 30 years

who hadn’t already won over 3m.

In terms of winning experience, Lostintranslation

again came up short, with his sole previous

chase win coming in the aforementioned Dipper

Novices’ Chase on New Year’s Day. He had

finished runner-up on three of his other four

starts, and prior to that, 34 of the previous 38

winners had won at least twice over fences. Experience

is always a plus in staying novice chases,

and although he had won just the once, he wasn’t

short on chasing experience.

During this century, Simply Supreme, Silviniaco

Conti and Saphir du Rheu were the other winners

of the Mildmay to have only won once previously

DAY TWO RACE THREE


45

DAY TWO RACE THREE

over fences, whilst only two winners – Killyglen and

Saphir du Rheu – arrived here on the back of just

three chase starts. Of the remaining 19 winners,

18 had run between four and six times over fences,

whilst Terrefort – who boasted considerable experience

from France – was having his 10th chase start

when winning this three years ago.

THE IRISH ANGLE

SUBSEQUENT Troytown winner Chris’s Dream

was the only Irish runner in 2019, and in total, we

have only ever seen three Irish-trained winners.

Like-A-Butterfly has already featured, whilst the

other pair – Boss Doyle (1998) and Quito de la

Roque – both avoided Cheltenham and arrived

at Aintree with plenty of winning experience to

their names. The former was five-from-six over

fences (beaten only by Florida Pearl in the race

we now know as the Flogas Novice Chase), whilst

the latter was three-from-four and also suffered

his sole defeat at the hands of the RSA Chase

winner, so both had the form in the book. Quito

de la Roque finished runner-up to Bostons Angel

in the Neville Hotels Novice Chase at Leopardstown

over Christmas, a race which Boss Doyle won

by a wide margin. This is clearly a race to note if

looking at Irish runners, and this season’s renewal

produced a fantastic race between Monkfish and

Latest Exhibition. The fact that there is a Grade

1 novice chase over this trip at the Punchestown

Festival means it is an unlikely option for either,

although Paul Nolan might consider this race for

Latest Exhibition, if he doesn’t fancy locking horns

with Monkfish once again.

Leading owners Gigginstown House Stud have

been responsible for eight of the 11 Irish-trained

runners during the past 11 renewals (there has been

just a single representative each season during this

time), and as well as Quito de la Roque they have

seen Siegemaster finish third and Don Cossack

second. They are the only Irish runners to have hit

the frame during this period and whilst many of

the leading Irish staying novices are instead aimed

at the Dooley Insurance Group Champion Novice

Chase at the Punchestown Festival (RSA 3rd Delta

Work won this race in 2019), Gigginstown seem

happy to target this race, which is understandable

given that they often have several horses in

this division.

AGE AND BREEDING

THERE were no five-year-olds in 2019’s line-up and

although it was highlighted as a negative (rather

like the RSA and Arkle, since the weight-allowance

was removed) a couple of years ago, following

the victory of Terrefort the recent record is actually

quite good. There have been three winning

five-year-olds since 2006 and all three were

French-bred. During this 14-year period, only

eight horses fitting the profile have contested

the race, so three winners is very good indeed.

The other pairing were both trained by Paul

Nicholls (Star de Mohaison and Big Buck’s).

In terms of solely looking at the pedigree of

recent winners, Barton is the last British-bred winner

of the Mildmay and since his victory in 2002, the

17 winners were all Irish (10) or French-bred (7).

The aforementioned If The Cap Fits is older than

your average novice chaser, being nine. Barton won

this race at that age, and more recently (2005)

Like-A-Butterfly won it as an 11-year-old. However,

only three of the 39 winners of the race were older

than eight.

TRAINERS TO NOTE

NICKY Henderson first won this race in 1991, with

Sparkling Flame, and he had to wait until 2003

for his second winner, with Irish Hussar. More

recently, Henderson has saddled three winners

since 2010, with Burton Port, Might Bite and Terrefort

all successful, the last-named pairing coming

in the past three renewals. Mr Whipped finished

only fourth for Hendersonin 2019, but was just his

14th runner since 2003 and four winners during

this period (plus a second in 2017, when Whisper

chased home Might Bite) is a fine strike rate.

Paul Nicholls has also won the race four times

in recent years and his winners have already

been well covered. All four of his winners were

French-bred and it remains a race in which his

runners warrant plenty of respect. As well as his

quartet of winners, Nicholls has had six horses

finish second or third since 2006, so 10 of his

16 runners during this period have recorded a

top-three finish. It is also worth noting that in addition

to his two five-year-old winners, his other

two winners were only six, so his younger runners

warrant more respect.

Lostintranslation provided Colin Tizzard with a

second winner in the past four renewals and he has

also had Third Intention and Elegant Escape finish

second and third respectively. He has only saddled

the four runners in the race during the past eight

years, and he could be represented this year by

Kauto Star second The Big Breakaway, who still

looks very much a work in progress. He did well

to finish as close as he did to Shan Blue (given he

jumped poorly late on) and might well improve in

the spring, and into next season, as he still looks

a very immature horse. Fiddlerontheroof could


be another option for the Tizzard stable, with him

stepping up in distance at Warwick during January.

Together, this trio have won the past five renewals

between them and 10 of the past 17.

OTHER KEY RACE

AS well as both finishing second in the Marsh,

the past two winners had earlier contested the

Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase at Sandown

in early-February. Terrefort was successful and

Lostintranslation again went down narrowly to

his old adversary Defi du Seuil, who would again

defeat him at the festival. This year’s race was won

by Sporting John, who stayed on strongly to beat

the aforementioned Kauto Star winner, Shan Blue.

Both horses are likely to line up at the festival, but

stepping up in trip might well suit Sporting John

come the spring.

DAY TWO RACE THREE

THE BIG BREAKAWAY COULD BE COLIN TIZZARD’S RUNNER THIS YEAR

ROLL OF HONOUR



2019 23122 Lostintranslation 7 11-4 157 3/1 C Tizzard 6 2nd Gr.1 Marsh Nov. Chase (22)

2018 13112 Terrefort 5 11-4 153 3/1F N Henderson 9 2nd Gr.1 Marsh Nov. Chase (29)

2017 21F11 Might Bite 8 11-4 161 8/13F N Henderson 5 1st Gr.1 RSA Chase (23)

2016 11332 Native River 6 11-4 149 11/2 C Tizzard 8 2nd Cheltenham Nov. Chase (24)

2015 U1F12 Saphir du Rheu 6 11-4 163 13/8F P Nicholls 9 2nd Gr.1 Stayers’ Hurdle (29)

2014 2U111 Holywell 7 11-4 157 7/2 J O’Neill 6 1st Gr.3 Ultima Handicap Chase (24)

2013 1112 Dynaste 7 11-4 157 9/4JF D Pipe 6 2nd Gr.2 Marsh Nov. Chase (22)

2012 3124 Silviniaco Conti 6 11-4 154 7/4F P Nicholls 5 4th Gr.2 Reynoldstown Chase (53)

2011 1211 Quito de La Roque 7 11-4 152 6/1 C Murphy (IRE) 8 1st Gr.2 Ten Up Chase (55)


Kauto Star Novices’ Chase 5 (Silviniaco Conti 2nd, Dynaste 1st, Saphir du Rheu fell,

Native River 3rd, Might Bite fell)

Marsh Novices’ Chase 3 (Dynaste 2nd, Terrefort 2nd, Lostintranslation 2nd)

Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase 2 (Terrefort 1st, Lostintranslation 2nd)


47

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DAY TWO RACE FOUR

MARSH MELLING CHASE

Grade 1, 2m 3f 200y

OVERVIEW

ANOTHER race with a rich history and, arguably (from a purist’s perspective), the feature event of

the whole three-day meeting. The performances of the brilliant Moscow Flyer (twice) and Sprinter

Sacre will live long in the memory, whilst the illustrious roll of honour includes the likes of Remittance

Man, Deep Sensation, Master Minded, Finian’s Rainbow and Don Cossack. The other dual winners of

the race are Viking Flagship, Direct Route, Native Upmanship and Voy Por Ustedes, and this will be

the 30th running of the Melling Chase.


THIS is another race in which form from the

Cheltenham Festival is key, and, in fact, the only

winner this century who hadn’t run at the festival

was Fadalko (2001), who was successful the

year that Cheltenham was lost due to the Foot And

Mouth outbreak. Going back even further, only two

winners – one being the inaugural winner Blazing

Walker – skipped the festival.

Of the 26 winners to have run at the festival,

20 had contested the Queen Mother Champion

Chase, with 2019’s winner Min taking a big step

forward, following on from his fifth-place finish

at Cheltenham. Seven horses have completed the

double, most recently the Nicky Henderson-trained

pairing of Finian’s Rainbow and Sprinter Sacre, who

are in fact the only Champion Chase winners in the

past 12 years to run in the race. Prior to that, Master

Minded – who would return to win the race in

2011 – was beaten at odds of 2/5 in 2008, when

only a five-year-old, with Voy Por Ustedes turning

the Cheltenham form around to the tune of

37 lengths.

The past four winners all finished between

second and fifth in the Champion Chase, and that

remains the obvious starting point when looking

at the Melling Chase.

Since 2006 (a year after the inception of the

race), the Ryanair Chase has started to have an

impact here and six winners in the next 10 years had

run in that event. Only Albertas Run has completed

the double, whilst both Voy Por Ustedes (ahead of

his second Melling win) and Don Cossack both hit

the frame. There were no runners from the Ryanair

in the latest running of the Melling Chase, although

had last year’s meeting taken place, I suspect that

Min (who had won the Ryanair) would have again

taken his chance.


HAVING finished runner-up in the race in 2018,

Min continued the fine strike rate of horses who

had won or placed at this meeting previously.

He became the 12th winner in 13 years to fall into

this category and, overall, 22 of the 29 winners

had already won or placed in a race at the Grand

National meeting. Obviously, the dual winners of

the race help this statistic, but it is a fairly strong

trend and one that should be taken very seriously.

In recent seasons, second-season chasers have

begun to feature prominently in this race (more

of this shortly) and five winners between 2012

and 2018 had contested the previous season’s 2m

Maghull Novices’ Chase. Finian’s Rainbow and


Sprinter Sacre completed the double, whilst both

God’s Own and Fox Norton hit the frame in the

Maghull, and Politologue was unfortunate not to

win it in 2018. Again, there was no representation

from the race in 2019, although going back further

Direct Route completed the double in 1998 and

1999, and Voy Por Ustedes finished runner-up in

the 2006 renewal.

Obviously, there was no Maghull last year, but

this is something to continue to consider moving

forward, so take note of this year’s renewal with

the 2022 Melling in mind. Also, in regards to this

year’s race, pay respect to those with strong novice

chase form over the minimum trip from last season.

A couple of winners in the past decade had run

in the Mildmay Novices’ Chase during their first

season over fences, those being Albertas Run –

who had plenty of previous form at this meeting

in the book – and subsequent Gold Cup winner

Don Cossack.

To date, only one British-trained winner had not

run at the meeting previously, but trends like this

one might be less relevant this year (with last year’s

abandonment). Although he disappointed in this

race in 2019 (never seemed happy and reported

to have been sick afterwards), Waiting Patiently –

who is also likely to be considered for the Bowl on

the opening day, having been scratched from the

Ryanair and Gold Cup – would be a very interesting

runner for Ruth Jefferson. He finished third in the

King George on his return, then filled the same spot

in the Clarence House, so this trip (of somewhere in

between) could still be his optimum. Given a nice

break since Ascot in January, his record fresh is a

very good, and he should be respected in whichever

race he runs.

WAITING PATIENTLY

KEY TRENDS

22 of the 29 winners had won or placed at

this meeting previously

The past 18 winners contested either the

Queen Mother Champion Chase (12) or the

Ryanair Chase (6)

23 of the 29 winners were aged between 7-9

12 of the past 16 winners had won a Grade 1

earlier in the season

9 of the past 22 winners were trained in

Ireland (from just 23% representation)

7 of the past 8 winners were in their first

season out of novice company

The past 3 (and 7 of the past 12) winners

were French-bred

The only 2 QMCC winners to have run in the

past 12 years have won

Willie Mullins has saddled 2 winners and a

2nd in the past 6 renewals

Only 1 winner this century hadn’t previously

won a Grade 1

Only 1 UK-trained winner had not run at the

meeting previously

Only 2 of the 29 winners skipped the

Cheltenham Festival

PROVEN CLASS

ONLY one winner this century – Fox Norton – had not

previously won a Grade 1 race and Min was already

a three-time winner at the top-level when lining up

last year. Two of those wins were achieved earlier

in the season and he became the 12th winner in the

past 16 to have won a Grade 1 earlier in the campaign.

Respect proven Grade 1 performers, especially those

who have won at the highest level this season.

SECOND-SEASON CHASERS

AS touched upon briefly already, horses in their

first season out of novice company* have a fine

recent record in the Melling, with seven straight

winners between 2012 and 2018.

* note I did not state ‘second-season chaser’ as

God’s Own spent two full seasons over fences as a

novice, although you get the message, I’m sure…..

Novices from last season who could contest this

year’s race include Allaho, Imperial Aura, Master

Tommytucker and Mister Fisher, who I thought was

tailor-made for the Manifesto Novices’ Chase this

time last year. Despite winning twice at Cheltenham,

I still see him very much as a horse who is

most effective on a flat track. At the time of writing,

DAY TWO RACE FOUR


51

DAY TWO RACE FOUR

none of that quartet have won in Grade 1 company,

however.

OTHER KEY RACES

WINNER of this race two years ago Politologue is

one of three winners during the past nine renewals

to have won the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown

earlier in the season (the others being Master

Minded and Sprinter Sacre), and Paul Nicholls’ grey

ran out an impressive 7-length winner once again

in early-December.

Prior to winning the Tingle Creek, Politologue

had won the Haldon Gold Cup on his reappearance

and completed the hat-trick in the Grade 2

Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton over Christmas.

Both races have thrown up a couple of winners

of this race in recent years, and were won this

season by Greaneteen (subsequently second to

his stable-mate in the Tingle Creek) and Nube

Negra, respectively. The latter looks all speed, so

would be well-suited to the Mildmay course, but

quite whether he wants another half-mile is another

matter completely.

Three winners in succession between 2011 and

2013 had won the Clarence House Chase en route

to the Champion Chase and then Aintree, and that

race was won this season by the Kim Bailey-trained

First Flow.

Both Fox Norton and Politologue finished

runner-up in Newbury’s Game Spirit Chase before

they contested the Champion Chase and winning

the Melling.

THE IRISH CHALLENGE

MIN became the ninth Irish-trained winner in the past

22 renewals and from just 23% of the runners during

this period. Min was the sole Irish-trained horse in

the line-up in 2019 and they have been responsible

for just 38 of the 165 runners in the race since 1998,

when Opera Hat became the first Irish winner.

Willie Mullins – courtesy of Boston Bob and Min

– and Gordon Elliott have made it three winners in

the past six renewals for Ireland and this is one race

in particular which the former seems to take very

seriously, certainly of late. Vautour was sent off

at prohibitive odds when coming down five years

ago, and Min was narrowly denied three years ago.

In total (during the past six renewals), Mullins has

saddled just five runners, so boasts a 40% strike

rate in the contest. Boston Bob was Mullins’ first

runner during this period, when successful in 2014.

Both Min and Don Cossack won the John Durkan

Memorial Chase earlier in the season – a race Min

won for a third successive season in December –

whilst the latter also won the Horse & Jockey Hotel

Chase (formerly the Kinloch Brae), a race which

was won twice by Native Upmanship before his

wins in this race. The Grade 2 at Thurles was won

this year by Allaho, who seems at home over this

sort of trip. A bold show in the Ryanair could see

him enter calculations for this, along with stablemate

and previous winner, Min.

FRENCH-BRED WINNERS

THE past three winners were French-bred, and

had the aforementioned Vautour not fallen in

2016, it might well have been four winners in a row.

Since Voy Por Ustedes won back-to-back renewals in

2008 and 2009 (inclusive), seven of the 12 winners

were French-bred and from just 41% of fields. 40 of

the 98 runners during this period were French-bred.

AGE

THE past 14 winners – and 23 of the 29 winners

in total – were aged seven (5), eight (10) or nine

(8). Only six winners were aged in double-digits,

and Moscow Flyer twice fell into that category,

winning the race at 10 and 11. Min is, of course,

now a 10-year-old.

TRAINERS TO NOTE

WITH three winners apiece in the race, both Nicky

Henderson and Paul Nicholls remain the most

successful trainers in the Melling Chase, to date.

Nicky Henderson had to wait 20 years for his

second win in the race, after Remittance Man won

the second renewal. All three of his winners were

second-season chasers, who had won the Queen

Mother Champion Chase.

Paul Nicholls has won the race three times since

2001, when Fadalko provided him with a first win

in the race. Nicholls could be well-represented this

year, with last year’s winner Politologue likely to be

considered once again, whilst this seems to be the

spring target for the flat-track specialist, Master

Tommytucker. Cyrname and Greaneteen are other

possible contenders for the stable.

PAUL NICHOLLS


DAY TWO RACE FOUR

MIN – A LAST AINTREE WINNER FOR RUBY WALSH

ROLL OF HONOUR



2019 115 MIn 8 11-7 167 2/1F W Mullins (IRE) 6 5th Gr.1 Champion Chase (23)

2018 11124 Politologue 7 11-7 161 11/1 P Nicholls 6 4th Gr.1 Champion Chase (30)

2017 1122 Fox Norton 7 11-7 166 4/1 C Tizzard 9 2nd Gr.1 Champion Chase (23)

2016 324 God’s Own 8 11-10 162 10/1 T George 6 4th Gr.1 Champion Chase (23)

2015 11113 Don Cossack 8 11-10 166 3/1JF G Elliott (IRE) 10 3rd Gr.1 Ryanair Chase (29)

2014 166 Boston Bob 9 11-10 154 5/1 W Mullins (IRE) 10 6th Gr.1 Ryanair Chase (22)

2013 111 Sprinter Sacre 7 11-10 188 1/3F N Henderson 6 1st Gr.1 Champion Chase (23)

2012 121 Finian’s Rainbow 9 11-10 173 13/8F N Henderson 8 1st Gr.1 Champion Chase (30)

2011 1118 Master Minded 8 11-10 172 11/2 P Nicholls 10 8th Gr,1 Champion Chase (23)


Queen Mother Champion Chase 6 (Master Minded 8th, Finian’s Rainbow 1st, Sprinter Sacre 1st,

God’s Own 4th, Fox Norton 2nd, Min 5th)

*Maghull Novices’ Chase 5 (Finian’s Rainbow 1st, Sprinter Sacre 1st, God’s Own 2nd,

Fox Norton 3rd, Politiologue fell)

Ryanair Chase 2 (Boston Bob 6th, Don Cossack 3rd)

Clarence House Chase 3 (Master Minded 1st, Finian’s Rainbow 2nd, Sprinter Sacre 1st)

Tingle Creek Chase 3 (Master Minded 1st, Sprinter Sacre 1st, Politiologue 1st)

Haldon Gold Cup 2 (God’s Own 3rd, Politiologue 1st)

John Durkan Chase 2 (Don Cossack 1st, Min 1st)

Desert Orchird Chase 2 (Finian’s Rainbow 1st, Politologue 1st)

Game Spirit Chase 2 (Fox Norton 2nd, Politologue 2nd)



53

DAY TWO RACE FIVE

RANDOX HEALTH

TOPHAM HANDICAP CHASE

Grade 3, 2m 5f 19y – National Course

OVERVIEW

AS stated in the Overview for the Foxhunters’ on day one, a bold-jumping, prominent racer is the

ideal type for the Topham, and 2019’s winner Cadmium put up a wonderful display, when making

virtually all under Paul Townend.

In the past 10 renewals, we have seen Always Waining win the race for three successive years and

Ultragold won back-to-back renewals in 2017 and 2018, so previous form in this race – and over the

big fences in general – can be an advantage.

A Listed handicap until 2011, the Topham was handed Grade 3 status nine years ago.


NONE of the first five home in 2019 had run on the

Grand National course previously, but prior to that

10 of the previous 15 winners of this race had run

at the track, with eight of them finishing in the first

four. 2019’s second and third had finished placed

at this meeting previously (on the Mildmay course)

whereas the winner was actually having his first

start in England, having raced exclusively in Ireland

since joining Willie Mullins.

The recent multiple winners clearly help the

statistic, but experience over the big fences is

undoubtedly no bad thing. Prior to Always Waining

completing a famous hat-trick of wins, he had

finished fourth in the race, and Irish Raptor finished

runner-up in 2008, before going one better

12 months later.

Going back a little further, both Liberthine

(unplaced) and Dunbrody Millar (4th) ran in the

previous season’s Topham Handicap Chase, as

had Cassia Heights (3rd). Cregg House had refused

in the 2003 Grand National before winning the

Topham 24 months later, so that was four consecutive

winners who boasted previous course form

of some sort.

There have been plenty of placed horses in

the past decade who also boasted course form,

although it should be pointed out that during the

past seven years, only Eastlake and Ultragold had

that previous course experience to their name, so

perhaps it is becoming less significant.

Both the Becher Chase and the Grand Sefton –

staged on the same card in early-December – have

had an influence on this race in recent years. The

former was won by the evergreen course specialist

Vieux Lion Rouge, whilst the Grand Sefton (which

is run over the Topham distance of 2m5f) was won

by Beau Bay. The likes of Modus (3rd) and Flying

Angel (4th) might be more interesting with regards

to a tilt at this event, with the latter filling the same

spot 12 months earlier, having finishing sixth behind

Cadmium in this event.

KEY CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL RACES

CADMIUM arrived at Aintree on the back of a fairly

busy campaign (partly, perhaps, to do with the

ruling in Ireland which meant he was eligible for

novice chases in the first past half of the season,

having only won the previous February) but he

skipped Cheltenham and had his prep run in the

Grade 2 Webster Cup over 2m at Navan. However,

the five previous winners – and 10 of the 20 since


the turn of the century – did run at Cheltenham.

Five of the 10 ran in the Brown Advisory &

Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase, starting

with Northern Starlight (unplaced) back in 2000.

Its Time For A Win finished third two years later,

whilst Gwanako (2nd) also hit the frame. The two

more-recent winners to emerge from that festival

contest – Rajdhani Express and Ultragold – were

both unplaced.

Eastlake and Ultragold (ahead of his first win)

had contested the Grand Annual, both failing to

hit the frame, and form over the minimum trip is

worth taking note of, as the past four winners had

all shown good form over 2m or thereabouts.

The last horse to drop in trip from their

previous start was Ma Filleule, who had finished

runner-up in the Ultima Handicap Chase, although

she is the only winner this century to hail from that

particular contest. Although it hasn’t had an impact

on this race for 12 years, both Liberthine and Irish

Raptor finished unplaced in the Fulke Walwyn Kim

Muir before winning the Topham in 2006 and 2009

respectively.

BREEDING AND AGE

EIGHT winners during the past 18 years – and,

perhaps more crucially, five of the past seven

winners – were French-bred. During that latest

seven-year period, 51 of the 201 runners were bred

in France (25%) and backing them all blind would

have yielded a profit of £49 to a level-stake £1.

Since the turn of the century, only seven

winners were aged eight or younger and all bar

one of them (Radjhani Express, whose dam was

a French-bred by Cadoudal) were French-bred.

Much has already been written earlier in this Guide

about the precociousness of such horses and that

is further evidenced here. If you like the look of a

‘younger horse’, it would certainly be favourable if

they were French-bred.

Being only seven, Cadmium was another to fall

into this category, whilst going back to 1998, Cyfor

Malta was the first of just two five-year-old winners

of the race. The other was another French-bred,

Gwanako, who won after the removal of the age-allowance.

Another to go close was Mon Parrain, who

looked all over the winner turning for home, only

to finish runner-up in 2011.

At the other end of the age scale, only one

winner in the past 26 years was older than 10, that

being Always Waining who completed his treble

as an 11-year-old.

Therefore, be cautious of those in double digits,

especially 11 and above. The percentage call is to

focus on those aged between 8 and 10.

KEY TRENDS

Look out for a bold-jumping prominent racer

10 out of the past 16 winners had previously

run over the Grand National course

(8 finished in the first 4)

10 of the 20 winners this century ran at the

Cheltenham Festival

8 of the past 11 winners were unplaced last

time out



higher

4 of the past 6 winners carried 11-1 or more

Respect French-bred youngsters

Respect form of last year’s renewal

Only 3 Irish-trained winners since 1979

Only 2 winners in the past 39 years were

held-up

Only 2 winners this century won last-time-out

Only 1 winner in the past 26 years older

than 10

TACTICS/RIGHT TYPE OF HORSE

AS stated in the Overview – and also when relating

to several races at the meeting already – you really

do want to race up close to the pace in the Topham.

Ultragold was never far away when recording the

first of his two victories in the race, and, like the

latest winner, made virtually all when following

up. It is possible to come from further back, but

the move needs to be made fairly early and you

certainly wouldn’t want your runner in the second

half of the field once they are approaching halfway.

Genuine ‘hold-up’ performers have a very

poor record in this event, with the added danger

of meeting trouble-in-running, or having horses

fall in front of them, something for such runners

to contend with.

Finding the ‘right type of horse’ for a Topham

is often as important as worrying about weights

and measures.

WEIGHT AND OFFICIAL BHA RATING

THERE has been a wide spread of both weight

carried and official winning marks over the years,

although the past six winners were all rated 136

and above, and five of them were 141 or higher.

Gwanako was the only other fairly recent winner

to score from such a rating (141), so this suggests

that the winners of late are certainly better-quality

horses and that could well be something to focus

DAY TWO RACE FIVE


55

DAY TWO RACE FIVE

on moving forward. Rather in keeping with this,

four of those five carried 11-1 or more.

THE IRISH CHALLENGE

CADMIUM became just the third Irish-trained

winner since 1979 and, in doing so, provided trainer

Willie Mullins with a second Topham in the space

of 18 years. Its Time For A Win gave Mullins a first

success in the race, whilst Cregg House (2005)

scored for Shane Donohoe just three years later.

Cadmium, therefore, became the first Irish winner

in 14 years and was one of just six runners from

Ireland in 2019 (75 have run during the past 14

renewals), with Sub Lieutenant providing them

with a one-two.

CURRENT FORM

SIX winners this century finished runner-up (5) or

third (1) last time out, whilst only two – Gower Slave

and Clan Royal – arrived at Aintree on the back of

a win. Therefore, there hasn’t been a last-time-out

winner for 17 years and eight of the past 11 winners

were unplaced on their previous start. Don’t let a

‘poor run’ put you off.

CONNECTIONS TO NOTE

DESPITE having to wait 16 years between his first

and second wins in the race, Nicky Henderson won

three straight renewals between 2013 and 2015, to

take his tally in the race to five wins. He has since

saddled eight horses during the past three renewals

and these include the three horses who have

finished fourth in each renewal. He ran no fewer

than four horses in 2019, including market leader

(and top-weight) Janika, who ran a huge race to

finish fourth off a mark of 162.

Three of Henderson’s winners carried the silks

of Robert Waley-Cohen, and his son Sam (whose

record over these fences has already been highlighted)

partnered Liberthine (2006) and Rajdhani

Express to victory in the past 14 renewals. Wont

Be Gone Long was the owner’s first winner (and

Henderson’s first winner, too), scoring at 25/1

under Richard Dunwoody in 1990, just 10 days

before Sam’s 8th birthday. More recently, Theatre

Territory finished third in the race for the

Waley-Cohens in 2018.

Peter Bowen has won the race on four occasions,

albeit Always Waining provided him with

three of those wins, whilst both Jonjo O’Neill

and Colin Tizzard have won the race twice since

the turn of the century. The former saddled Clan

Royal (2003) and Eastlake to win in the silks of

JP McManus, whilst Tizzard’s two wins came courtesy

of Ultragold, although it should be noted that

he saddled the first and second in 2018, and didn’t

have a runner in 2019.

ROLL OF HONOUR



2019 34412 Cadmium 7 11-2 152 8/1 W Mullins (IRE) 27 2nd Gr.2 Navan Chase (18)

2018 392P0 Ultragold 10 11-1 141 14/1 C Tizzard 27 13th Gr.3 Festival Plate (29)

2017 1B679 Ultragold 9 10-5 136 50/1 C Tizzard 29 9th Gr.3 Grand Annual Chase (21)

2016 P5P9 Eastlake 10 10-11 142 22/1 J O’Neill 29 9th Gr.3 Grand Annual Chase (21)

2015 U4678 Rajdhani Express 8 11-8 152 10/1 N Henderson 30 8th Gr.3 Festival Plate (29)

2014 3P12 Ma Filleule 6 11-7 150 9/1 N Henderson 30 2nd Gr.3 Ultima Handicap Chase (24)

2013 2P38 Triolo d’Alene 6 10-7 132 14/1 N Henderson 29 8th Sandown Handicap Chase (90)

2012 84409 Always Waining 11 10-11 138 11/1 P Bowen 26 9th Bangor Handicap Hurdle (21)

2011 06704 Always Waining 10 10-4 128 14/1 P Bowen 30 4th Chepstow Handicap Hurdle (16)


*Topham Chase 3 (Always Waining 1st & 1st, Eastlake p.u.)

Becher Chase 2 (Always Waining 4th, Ultragold 3rd)

Jim Joel Memorial Trophy 2 (Eastlake 5th, Ultragold 1st)

Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase 2 (Eastlake 9th, Ultragold 9th)

United House Gold Cup 2 (Always Waining 13th & 11th)

Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate 2 (Rajdhani Express 8th, Ultragold 13th)



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DAY TWO RACE SIX

DOOM BAR

SEFTON NOVICES’ HURDLE

Grade 1, 3m 149y

OVERVIEW

DESPITE the nature of Aintree’s track, the Sefton still tends to favour proper staying types and it can

develop into a real test, depending on ground conditions. 2019’s smooth winner Champ dispelled

that theory somewhat, and he joined a high-class roll of honour which includes the likes of Iris’s Gift,

Black Jack Ketchum and Thistlecrack.

Champ was providing Nicky Henderson with a second successive win in the race and a fourth in

total, with subsequent Stayers’ Hurdle winner Rustle successful in the very first running of the race,

back in 1988.

THE FRESH ANGLE

ALTHOUGH the past three winners arrived at

Aintree on the back of running big races at the

Cheltenham Festival, 11 of the first 16 winners

this century missed the festival, so this is another

race to very much consider the supposed ‘fresh’

horse. Petitfour, Ogee, Wayward Prince, Saint Are,

Beat That, Thistlecrack and Ballyoptic all won this

between 2008 and 2016, having not run at the

festival, so it remains something to bear in mind,

despite the recent run of results.


IN 2019, nine of the 12 runners had actually

bypassed the festival, so a first and third (from

just the three runners) reads well for the Cheltenham

Festival form. The other ‘festival runner’

(Dallas des Pictons) flopped, however, finishing

11th, having been sent off at 4/1 on the back of his

solid run in the Martin Pipe. That shows that horses

can disappoint in this race, and although both

Black Jack Ketchum and At Fishers Cross supplemented

their Albert Bartlett success here, four

winners from that event were subsequently beaten

in the Sefton.

However, the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle

remains the first port of call in terms of festival

winners, with six winners since 2006 having

contested that event. Only Chief Dan George failed

to shape well in the Albert Bartlett, with Lovcen

(4th), The Worlds End (falling when travelling

strongly two out) and Santini (3rd) all running big

races on Gold Cup day.

Champ had finished runner-up in the Ballymore

Novices’ Hurdle on his previous start and I admit to

having had stamina reservations about him beforehand.

He settled much better than he had earlier in

the season and ran out a very impressive winner in

the end, before going on to confirm that stamina in

last year’s RSA. The last horse placed in the Ballymore

who attempted to win this race was Karabark

(finished fourth when sent off 13/8 fav) in 2009, two

years after Massini’s Maguire attempted to supplement

his Ballymore win, but could finish only fourth.

Subsequent dual-Champion Hurdle winner Hardy

Eustace suffered a similar fate, when attempting

to follow-up in 2003, although hindsight would

suggest that an extended 3m wasn’t exactly what

he was after at that stage of his career.

If you go back further through the records,

however, five of the first 12 winners of the race

(between 1988-1999) had run in the Bally-


more, or the Sun Alliance as it was back then.

Of course, there was no Albert Bartlett at the

festival in those days, and given that the Ballymore

is often about speed these days, the main

protagonists are often aimed at the Mersey, if

coming to Aintree at all (Irish horses tend to stay at

home). However, Rustle (3rd), Cardinal Red (2nd),

Forest Ivory (4th) and King’s Road (4th) all finished

in the first four, whereas Barton Bank was unplaced

at the festival.

In those informative years, both Pleasure Shared

(unplaced) and Unsinkable Boxer (1st) contested

what is now the Pertemps Final, whilst after the

turn of the century, Stromness won this following

a fourth place in the Coral Cup and Iris’s Gift had

run a mighty race to finish runner-up in the Stayers’

Hurdle. Had the Albert Bartlett been formed

two years earlier, it is likely that he would have run

in that (and won).

Back to Champ, and it remains to be seen if this

becomes the target of any of those who go close

in the Ballymore going forward, as he was the first

winner to hail from that race since 1999.

OTHER KEY RACES

FIVE winners in the past 19 years contested

Haydock’s Prestige Novices’ Hurdle, which is

staged shortly after the Guide goes to print.

The Worlds End and Wayward Prince are the only

pair to have run in it during the past 12 years, whilst

Garruth, Iris’s Gift and Chief Dan George contested

the Grade 2 in the space of seven years, between

2001 and 2007. Three of these winners were also

successful at the Merseyside track and 2019’s race

was another good renewal, with Lisnagar Oscar

winning it before finishing fifth in the Albert Bartlett

and third in this race.

At Fishers Cross and Santini both won the Classic

Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham on trials day, a

race in which Thistlecrack finished only seventh of

nine. 2m41/2f on the New Course at Cheltenham is

a good stamina test, but unfortunately this year's

race was lost when the fixture in late-January was

abandoned. This was not one of the races from the

meeting which was saved, but at the time it was the

Nicky Martin-trained Bear Ghylls who was a short

price favourite to maintain his winning run.

Both Ogee (2009) and Beat That finished placed

in the Winter Novices’ Hurdle at Sandown during

December, with the latter not seen between his

second there and Aintree. Fingal Bay also won that

race before finishing runner-up here in 2012, and

the race was won this season by Evan Williams’ Star

Gate, who went on to finish second behind Bravemansgame

in the Challow. He won’t reportedly run

KEY TRENDS

22 of the past 25 winners had won at least

twice over hurdles

18 of the past 21 winners were six (11) or

seven (7)

13 of the 20 winners this century skipped

the Cheltenham Festival (although the past

3 winners ran there)

British-bred horses have won 6 of the

past 17 renewals (from a relatively small

representation)

6 of the past 19 winners were second (or

third) season novices

12 of the 20 winners this century had run 5

times or more over hurdles

The 3 Irish-trained winners all skipped

Cheltenham

Nicky Henderson has saddled 3 winners and

2 seconds during the past 6 renewals

Only 1 of the past 10 winners didn’t run in

bumpers/Point-to-Points

Only 2 Albert Bartlett winners have won

from 7 who have tried

Champ the only winner this century to have

contested the Ballymore

Only 3 of the past 12 winners had won over

2m7f+ previously

Irish-trained horses are 0-23 in the past

14 years

again this season, whilst it was Alan King’s Wetherby

winner Valleres who chased him home up the

Sandown hill in the Grade 2 contest. His spring

target is reportedly the EBF Final at Sandown.

BRED FOR THE JOB

BRITISH-BRED horses have a good record in the

Sefton, with four winners in the 10 years between

2009 and 2018. All that from a 23% representation,

and backing all such runners during this period

would have yielded a tidy profit of £29.50, to a

level-stake £1.

There was no British-trained runner in 2019,

whilst going back further, both Iris’s Gift and

Accipiter were another brace of winner in 2003

and 2004.

Looking at the background of winners, only

one winner in the past 10 didn’t start life in Pointto-Points

or bumpers, so look at the traditional

jumps-bred horses. Eight of the 10 had won in either

discipline.

DAY TWO RACE SIX


59

DAY TWO RACE SIX

EXPERIENCE

CHAMP became the fourth winner in the past 13 to

be successful in their second (or third in the case of

Ogee) season over hurdles. The Ballymore winner

had only had one start the previous season, but

officially he was a ‘second-season novice’ and he

gained a little more experience when winning twice

in the May before his summer break. Going back a

little further, Garruth and Stromness – who actually

ran in the race 12 months earlier – both won the

Sefton as a second-season novice, so that is six of

the past 19 winners.

In terms of number of hurdles starts, Champ had

already had six runs over hurdles before winning

this, and 12 of the 20 winners this century had run

five times or more. Experience is often viewed as a

positive in staying novice hurdles, certainly in the

Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham, and it can clearly

be an advantage in this race, too. Having said that,

four winners in the past 10 had run just twice (2) or

three times (2) over hurdles, so maybe the tide is

turning slightly in that respect. Certainly it has been

more of a mixed bag in recent seasons.

The size of the field in this race has reduced in

the past three years, so perhaps that is also having

an impact.

In terms of winning-experience, Champ became

the 22nd winner in the past 25 years to have

won a minimum of two races over hurdles.

Wayward Prince, Saint Are and Beat That were the

trio who had won just the once and they all came

during the past decade.

STAMINA

CHAMP was another stepping up in trip last year

and only three winners during the past 12 years had

actually won at around 3m prior to the Sefton, one

of those being The Worlds End, who was successful

in the 2m7f Prestige (which is now back to 3m½f).

Thistlecrack was one who took a massive step-up

in trip, having contested the Imperial Cup the time

before, although he had run in the 2m4½f Classic

Novices’ Hurdle before that.

Don’t be put off by those going up in distance,

although as already stated, focusing on those with

a Point-to-Point and/or bumper background can

also help, with their backgrounds suggesting that

3m might be suitable (not all Point-to-Point horses

require a trip, of course).

AGE

WHILST the record of five-year-olds isn’t as poor

as it is in the Albert Bartlett, it is still a big ask for a

horse of that age, although four – Dwadme (1990),

Stromness (2002), Accipiter (2004) and Saint Are

– have proven that it can be done. Three horses

have won at eight (1) or nine (2), with the majority

of winners – as you would expect – being six or

seven. Since 1999, 18 of the 21 winners were six (11)

or seven (7).

TRAINERS TO NOTE

NICKY Henderson has won the past two renewals

and three in the past six. Having won the very first

renewal back in 1988, Henderson is now the leading

trainer in the Sefton and his recent record in

the race suggests it is yet another contest which he

now takes very seriously. During the past six years,

he has also seen Vyta du Roc and Beyond Conceit

finish second (and he didn’t have a runner in the

other year, 2016). He saddled two in 2019 (Downtown

Getaway being the other) and remarkably

was responsible for the top three in the betting in

2018. His first two runners in the past 10 renewals

were pulled-up, but since 2014 his record stands at

three wins and two seconds from 11 runners.

Next-best is Nigel Twiston-Davies, who has

saddled three winners spanning back to 1999 when

King’s Road won. His more recent winners were

much less-exposed, with both Petitfour (2008)

and Ballyoptic winning this on their third start over

hurdles. Both were unbeaten, too.

THE IRISH CHALLENGE

ONLY three Irish-trained horses have won the

Sefton (and none since Asian Maze in 2005) and

two more failed to trouble the judge in 2019, with

Walk Away shaping reasonably well in fourth,

whilst second-favourite Dallas des Pictons really

did disappoint, trailing home last of the 11 finishers.

Many a leading Irish novice will wait for the 3m

Irish Daily Mirror Novice Hurdle at the Punchestown

Festival, rather like 2019’s Albert Bartlett winner

Minella Indo did, but even so, a record of 0-23 in

the past 14 years is a disappointing one.

It is certainly worth noting that the three Irish

winners – the other pair being Boreen Belle and

Sackville (2000) – all skipped the Cheltenham

Festival. The former won the second renewal of

this race back in 1989, so there have only been two

Irish-trained winners in the past 31 years.

Perhaps that previous point is an important one,

and maybe Gentlemansgame will be considered

for this race, as he doesn’t head to Cheltenham.

Given how he travelled at the Dublin Racing Festival

(and the fact that he has won around Cork)

would suggest that the sharp nature of the track

wouldn’t be an issue, and the same owner did run

Walk Away in the race two years ago.


DAY TWO RACE SIX

GOLD CUP HOPEFUL SANTINI WINNING THE 2018 SEFTON NOVICES’ HURDLE

ROLL OF HONOUR



2019 11112 Champ 7 11-4 152 9/4F N Henderson 12 2nd Gr.1 Ballymore Nov. Hurdle (23)

2018 113 Santini 6 11-4 150 6/4F N Henderson 13 3rd Gr.1 Albert Bartlett Nov. Hurdle (28)

2017 3111F The Worlds End 6 11-4 149 3/1 T George 11 fell Gr.1 Albert Bartlett Nov. Hurdle (21)

2016 511 Ballyoptic 6 11-4 138 9/1 N Twiston-Davies 15 1st Uttoxeter Nov. Hurdle (20)

2015 51715 Thistlecrack 7 11-4 135 25/1 C Tizzard 16 5th Gr.3 Imperial Cup (34)

2014 12 Beat That 6 11-4 142 6/1 N Henderson 18 2nd Gr.2 Sandown Nov. Hurdle (139)

2013 11111 At Fishers Cross 6 11-4 152 11/8F R Curtis 9 1st Gr.1 Albert Bartlett Nov. Hurdle (21)

2012 41F14 Lovcen 7 11-4 142 8/1 A King 19 4th Gr.1 Albert Bartlett Nov. Hurdle (28)

2011 172F3 Saint Are 5 11-4 129 33/1 T Vaughan 19 3rd Newbury Handicap Hurdle (34)


Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle 4 (Lovcen 4th, At Fishers Cross 1st, The Worlds End fell, Santini 3rd)

Classic Novices’ Hurdle 3 (At Fishers Cross 1st, Thistlecrack 7th, Santini 1st)


61

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DAY THREE RACE ONE

BRIDLE ROAD

HANDICAP HURDLE

Grade 3, 3m 149y

OVERVIEW

ANOTHER former Listed handicap, which was handed Grade 3 status in 2010, this race was switched

to Grand National day in 2016. In recent years, it has gone to higher-rated horses carrying more than

11st, and both novices and lightly-raced hurdlers also have a good record in the contest, which is

run over an extended 3m.

NOVICES

EIGHT novices have won this race since the turn of

the century, and although only Fountains Windfall

fell into this category during the past five, seven

of the past 14 winners were novices.

The novice representation wasn’t a particularly

strong one in 2019, but it is clearly still an angle to

take seriously. Four of the winning novices during

the past 14 renewals had contested Sandown’s EBF

Novices’ Handicap Hurdle Final on the Saturday

before the Cheltenham Festival. Albertas Run (1st),

Forest Pennant (4th), Time For Rupert (unplaced)

and Doctor Harper (3rd) all ran in the 2m4f contest.

The placed horses from 2019’s race both ran well

at Aintree in Grade 1 novice events, so pay attention

to this piece of form and note any who then

step up in distance here.

It is also worth noting that both His Nibs and

Holland Park both contested the EBF Final the

season before they won this race, so it is clearly a

good pointer, with six of the past 16 winners having

run at Sandown.

LIGHTLY-RACED HURDLERS

IN addition to the recent winning novices, there

have been a further six winners since 2005 who

had run 11 times or less over hurdles. This sextet

includes the past couple of winners, with Mr Big

Shot having just his fourth start over timber when

successful three years ago, and Aux Ptits Soins

had only ran eight times as a hurdler before his

win in 2019.

UNEXPOSED AT THE TRIP

AS well as looking for a lightly-raced, potential

improver, an unexposed stayer is also very much

something to consider. In fact, 12 of the past 16

winners were stepping up in distance, having run

over an intermediate trip on their previous outing,

having little (or no) experience over 3m or thereabouts.

Don’t be put off by a horse who has yet to

prove their stamina.

WELL-BRED BRITS

RATHER like the Sefton – and also the Albert Bartlett

at Cheltenham – British-bred horses have a

fine record in this race and the link here is clearly

stamina for 3m hurdle races. Ringaroses, Battle

Group (twice), Cape Tribulation, Taglietelle and

Fountains Windfall have given those with a (GB)

suffix six wins during the past 10 renewals, and all

from just 24% representation. Of the 205 runners

during the past 10 renewals, 49 were bred in Britain,

so six winners is a fine return and backing them

blind would have yielded a profit of £18.50 to a

level-stake £1.


WEIGHTS AND BHA RATINGS

EIGHT of the past 10 winners have carried 11st

or more, with Cape Tribulation shouldering the

biggest burden, when defying top-weight in 2012.

The past two winners have carried 11-5 and 11-8

respectively, so it appears as though the better

quality horses are rising to the top.

In keeping with this, eight of the past nine

winners were rated 137 or higher. Again, Cape Tribulation

won off the highest mark (150), although

2019’s winner Aux Ptits Soins was scoring from just

1lb lower. Three of the past five winners were rated

between 145 and 149, so again the race (as a whole)

seems on the up.

AGE

AGAIN, as with 2018, there was just a sole

five-year-old in the line-up in 2019 (Nadaitak) and

there have only ever been two winners of this

age group, those being subsequent Graded-class

performers Escartefigue and Time For Rupert.

At the other end of the scale, Aux Ptits Soins

became just the second nine-year-old winner this

century, although he was very low-mileage for a

horse of his age. The statistics suggest that we

should be focusing on those aged between 6 and 8.


AUX PTITS SOINS became the fifth winner during

the past 10 renewals to have run at the meeting

previously, having contested the Grade 1 Stayers’

Liverpool Hurdle two years earlier. Ubak and Battle

Group were previous winners at the fixture, whilst

Cape Tribulation had finished third in the bumper

and fifth in the Mersey Novices’ Hurdle.

Ringaroses had also contested the Grade 2

bumper at this fixture (finished 6th), and going

back a little further, both His Nibs (unplaced) and

Refinement (3rd) had also run in that race during

the early part of their careers.


2019’s winner arrived at Aintree on the back of a

short break, having last run in the Cleeve Hurdle on

trials day, whilst eight winners this century – and

five of the past nine winners – had been in action

at the Cheltenham Festival.

Mr Big Shot had finished mid-division in the

Martin Pipe on what was his belated return to action

(and, it should be said, showed distinct promise),

whilst Battle Group (ahead of his first win), Taglietelle

and Ubak all finished in the first four of the

Coral Cup. Going back a little further, Ross Moff

also finished third in the Coral Cup before winning

this in 2000, so pay healthy respect to any horse

KEY TRENDS


Another 6 – non-novice – winners since

2005 had 11 or less hurdles starts

12 of the past 16 winners were stepping up

in trip


4 last time out

8 of the past 10 winners carried 11st or more


higher

6 of the past 10 winners were GB-bred

(from 24% representation)

5 of the past 10 winners had run at the

meeting previously


Cheltenham Festival

4 of the past 16 winners had run in the

bumper at this meeting

Respect novices who ran in the EBF Final

Respect placed horses from the Coral Cup

Focus on those aged 6-8

Only 2 five-year-olds have won

Only 2 winners older than 8 this century

Only 5 winners this century failed to run

during March

who hits the frame in that particular event. Aux

Ptits Soins did, of course, win the Coral Cup back

in 2015, on what was his British debut.

Cape Tribulation won the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham

before following up here, something that

Sire de Berlais (sent off 7/2 favourite) was unable

to repeat in 2019.

CURRENT FORM

EVEN if skipping the festival, the majority of the

other winners this century ran during March,

although Aux Ptits Soins became the second

winner in the past seven years to have been freshened

up after running at Cheltenham’s trials day in

late-January.

Prior to the last two years, 12 of the previous 13

renewals either won (5) or finished in the first four

(7) last time out, so generally it can pay to look

for a positive most-recent performance. Certainly

if a horse skipped the festival, look for a win or

place last time.

TRAINERS TO NOTE

DAVID Pipe has been responsible for three

DAY THREE RACE ONE


65

DAY THREE RACE ONE

winners in the past 10 years, most recently with

Mr Big Shot three years ago. Poker Play – who was

sent off just 5/1 second-favourite – was unable to

enhance his fine recent record in the race in 2019,

but his runners warrant plenty of respect. Martin

Pipe also won the race twice, with Carlovent in 2001

and 2003.

Jonjo O’Neill has won this race on four occasions,

with those wins coming between 2002 and

2010, and he has had two horses finish in the first

five during the past six years. He was without a

runner in 2018 and Forza Milan failed to land a blow

the following year, but, again, if he thinks a horse

warrants a place in this line-up, take note. The JP

McManus-owned Flight Deck could be one possible

contender from Jackdaws Castle, although he

would need to win again before being considered

for a race of this nature, whilst Arrivederci also

looked ready to step up in distance at Ascot, and

remains lightly-raced.

Finally, Dan Skelton saddled the one-two in 2019

and this is a meeting which he likes to target.

AUX PTITS SOINS

ROLL OF HONOUR



2019 517 Aux Ptits Soins 9 11-8 149 11/1 D Skelton 21 7th Cleeve Hurdle (70)

2018 0 Mr Big Shot 7 11-5 138 7/1F D Pipe 20 10th Martin Pipe Hurdle (29)

2017 17311 Fountains Windfall 7 10-12 137 11/1 A Honeyball 22 1st Plumpton Nov. Hurdle (26)

2016 4U423 Ubak 8 11-0 146 16/1 G Moore 19 3rd Gr.3 Coral Cup (24)

2015 11144 Taglietelle 6 11-6 145 7/1 G Elliott (IRE) 21 4th Gr.3 Coral Cup (29)

2014 11513 Doctor Harper 6 11-3 138 8/1 D Pipe 22 3rd Gr.3 EBF Final (25)

2013 5F031 Battle Group 8 10-9 131 8/1CF K Bishop 21 3rd Timeform Nov. H'cap Chase (68)

2012 P5041 Cape Tribulation 8 11-12 150 14/1 M Jefferson 21 1st Listed Pertemps Final (28)

2011 34414 Battle Group 6 11-1 137 16/1 D Pipe 20 4th Gr.3 Coral Cup (23)


Coral Cup 3 (Battle Group 4th, Taglietelle 4th, Ubak 3rd)


BETWAY MERSEY

NOVICES’ HURDLE

Grade 1, 2m 4f

DAY THREE RACE TWO

OVERVIEW

A NOVICE hurdle with a roll of honour which includes the likes of three-time Gold Cup winner Best

Mate, whilst more recently subsequent Arkle winners Tidal Bay and Simonsig were successful during

the past 14 years. The last-named pairing arrived at the festival on the back of contesting the Ballymore

Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham and that race has been a fine guide to the Mersey in recent years.

The race was handed Grade 1 status in 2014, and trainers Willie Mullins and Colin Tizzard have

won four of the past five renewals between them.


ALTHOUGH 2019’s winner Reserve Tank skipped

the festival, it remains the obvious place to start

when looking at the Mersey, with eight winners

during the past 10 having run at Cheltenham. In

fact, only six winners since the turn of the century

had missed Cheltenham (this does include two of

the past three winners).

As stated in the Overview, the Ballymore

Novices’ Hurdle has proven to be the best guide to

this (unsurprisingly, given the similarity in distance)

and the past four Ballymore winners to have run

here had all won. This statistic goes all the way

back to 1999 when Barton completed the double,

whilst Peddlers Cross, Simonsig and Yorkhill have

repeated the feat during the past 11 years.

A further four winners since 2002 had finished

in the first four of the Ballymore, starting with

Classified and most recently with Black Op, who

finished runner-up in the 2m5f event at the festival.

Brewin’upastorm attempted to further boost

this record in 2019 and went close for Olly Murphy,

finishing second (having finished fourth in the

Ballymore), so pay healthy respect to any horse

running here on the back of a sound effort in

the Ballymore.

The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle has also thrown

up a quartet of Mersey winners since the turn

of the century, starting with Best Mate in 2000.

Both Henrietta Knight’s star and Nicky Henderson’s

Spirit Son finished runner-up in the festival

curtain-raiser, whilst Garde Champetre finished

fifth and Natal sixth. As already highlighted (see

Top Novices’ Hurdle on Friday), horses who finish

second in the Supreme have a fine record at

Aintree, so, again, respect any horse who arrives

here having gone close in the Supreme.

Lac Fontana had won the County Hurdle prior

to winning this race, but it can pay to focus on the

Grade 1 novice form from Cheltenham and those

who shaped well. Only Ubak has finished outside

of the front six in one of the aforementioned novice

events (7th in Ballymore) this century, before

winning this.

CURRENT FORM

THREE winners of this in the past 12 years missed

the festival and all three won their previous start.

Interestingly, both Bouggler and Reserve Tank won

over 2m5f at Kempton, whilst Finian’s Oscar won

a Listed event at Exeter over 2m1f in February.

He was then forced to miss the festival through

injury, rather than it being a conscious decision to

wait for Aintree.


67

DAY THREE RACE TWO

Bouggler only made a winning debut over

hurdles on 28th February, whilst 2001 winner

Montalcino only made his debut over hurdles in a

maiden hurdle at Huntingdon in mid-March. Obviously,

there was no festival that year, but this pair

go to show that it is possible to win this on the back

of just one run. Both horses were ex-Flat performers,

so weren’t lacking in racecourse experience,

although now the race is a Grade 1 it remains to be

seen if this could be repeated.

The other ‘non-Cheltenham’ winners in recent

years were Leinster (runner-up in a maiden), Turpin

Green (3rd in the Prestige Novices’ Hurdle) and

Elusive Dream (4th in the National Spirit Hurdle),

so look for a win or place if looking at those who

missed the festival.

OTHER KEY RACES

AS touched upon in the previous subsection, the

Bet At racingtv.com Novices’ Hurdle was won by

Finian’s Oscar before he won the Mersey, and the

same race – staged at Exeter in February – was also

won by Spirit Son, back in 2011. This year’s race was

won by Wilde About Oscar.

Finian’s Oscar had also won the Tolworth

Novices’ Hurdle and Yorkhill was also successful

in the Sandown Grade 1. Earlier this century, both

Best Mate and Garde Champetre finished runner-up

in the Tolworth just three months before winning

this, and this year’s race saw Metier run out a clearcut

winner for trainer Harry Fry. However, at the

time of writing, there is no indication that he needs

to step up in distance.

Given the record of both the winner of the

Tolworth and the Ballymore, it shouldn’t be surprising

that five of the past 10 winners had already

scored at Grade 1 level.

MARKET FORCES

RESERVE TANK was the second big-priced winner

of the Mersey in the past seven years, but the other

eight winners in the past 10 were sent off favourite

(6) or second-favourite (2). All eight were

priced at 9/2 or shorter, with seven priced at 3/1

or shorter. Despite the odd ‘upset’, this tends to be

a race where the cream rises to the top and has,

in general, been dominated by the top-two in the

betting of late.

EXPERIENCE

I’VE already touched upon the lightly-raced

winners – Montalcino and Bouggler – but, generally

speaking, a little more experience is required.

The average number of runs appears to be three

or four, whilst 12 of the past 15 winners had won

KEY TRENDS

Ballymore winners are 4-4 since 1999


Cheltenham Festival (11 of the 14 finished in

the first four, 8 of which in the Ballymore)


twice over hurdles (10 of those had won at

least three times)

10 of the past 11 winners finished 1st, 2nd or

3rd last-time-out

8 of the past 10 winners were sent off

favourite (6) or second-favourite (2)

5 of the past 10 winners had already won a

Grade 1

Three unbeaten hurdlers have won in the

past 10 renewals

Respect the Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle form

4 mares have hit the frame from just 6

runners in the past 11 years

Colin Tizzard has saddled 2 of the past 3

winners (and his record this century reads 2121)

Only 1 winning 4yo in 24 years

Only 2 winners aged 7 in 31 years

Only 2 winners sent off bigger than 9/2 in

the past 10 years

Front-runners tend to struggle

at least twice over hurdles. Ten of the dozen had

won three times or more, and three winners in the

past 10 were unbeaten over hurdles, with Peddlers

Cross, Yorkhill and Finian’s Oscar boasting an

unblemished record of three-from-three going

into this race. Going back to 1999, Barton arrived

at Aintree having won all six starts over hurdles.

AGE

THREE years ago, Black Op became just the

second seven-year-old winner of the Mersey in 31

years, the other being Elusive Dream. Of course,

Champ proved again in 2019 that horses of this

age can win Grade 1 novice events at Aintree, but

this race generally goes the way of the five and

six-year-olds, with that age group providing 21

of the past 24 winners. It has to be said that all

nine runners were five or six in 2019, and they do

supply the highest proportion of runners by some

distance, so this is to be expected. During the past

10 renewals, 12 horses aged seven or older have

taken their chance in the Mersey, with only Black

Op successful.

Only one four-year-old has been successful


during this period, Bouggler in 2009, although

only two have since taken their chance in the past

decade.

MARES

THERE were no mares in 2019’s field, but during

the previous 11 years, six have taken their chance

and, although none have been successful, four have

hit the frame. In receipt of the 7lb sex-allowance,

pay healthy respect to any mares, certainly from a

place perspective at least.

TACTICS

ALTHOUGH Black Op raced quite prominently in

2018 and Reserve Tank was handy from an early

stage, this is another race on the hurdles track

which favours those who like to track the pace

or are held-up. 2019’s winner was actually reined

back halfway down the far side, before taking up

the running three-out. He stayed on well to score,

whilst the track does usually suit those who are

ridden patiently and have a turn of foot. Respect a

horse who travels well and likes to stalk the pace,

whilst genuine front-runners tend to struggle here.

CONNECTIONS TO NOTE

GIVEN that he has saddled two winners in the

past three renewals, Colin Tizzard is clearly happy

to target one of his leading novice hurdlers at

the Mersey. His two winners – Finian’s Oscar and

Reserve Tank – both missed the Cheltenham Festival,

whilst he was also responsible for the runner-up

in 2018, when Lostintranslation found only Black

Op too good. Two winners and a second from three

runners is a very good record indeed, and this trio

were his first runners in the race since Cue Card

finished second in 2011.

As highlighted in 2019, Dan Skelton has saddled

just three runners in this race and all three hit the

frame. He was without a runner in 2019 and again

his trio all avoided the Cheltenham Festival and

were presumably trained with this meeting in mind.

It could be that My Drogo skips Cheltenham with

this race in mind, and he impressed on his first two

starts over hurdles, winning at Newbury and also

in Grade 2 company at Ascot.

Paul Nicholls won this race on four occasions

between 2004 and 2014, whilst Nicky Henderson

saddled back-to-back winners in 2011 and 2012. It

should be noted that Henderson has been responsible

for the past two beaten favourites, however,

those being On The Blind Side and Angels Breath.

Again, more recently, Willie Mullins also enjoyed

successive wins in the Mersey (2015 and 2016) and

he hasn’t had a runner in the three runnings since.

Should Mullins send a horse over for this race, take

note.

MY DROGO

DAY THREE RACE TWO

ROLL OF HONOUR



2019 3711 Reserve Tank 5 11-4 139 20/1 C Tizzard 9 1st Kempton Nov. Hurdle (21)

2018 4122 Black Op 7 11-4 152 3/1 T George 12 2nd Gr.1 Ballymore Nov. Hurdle (31)

2017 111 Finian’s Oscar 5 11-4 149 3/1F C Tizzard 13 1st Listed Exeter Nov. Hurdle (55)

2016 1111 Yorkhill 6 11-4 156 30/100F W Mullins (IRE) 6 1st Gr.1 Ballymore Nov. Hurdle (24)

2015 11U13 Nichols Canyon 5 11-4 149 3/1F W Mullins (IRE) 12 3rd Gr.1 Ballymore Nov. Hurdle (31)

2014 1411 Lac Fontana 5 11-4 148 9/2F P Nicholls 12 1st Gr.3 Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle (22)

2013 2347 Ubak 5 11-4 130 22/1 G Moore 8 7th Gr.1 Ballymore Nov. Hurdle (23)

2012 11211 Simonsig 6 11-4 157 4/9F N Henderson 10 1st Gr.1 Ballymore Nov. Hurdle (30)

2011 1112 Spirit Son 5 11-4 149 3/1 N Henderson 9 2nd Gr.1 Supreme Nov. Hurdle (24)


Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle 4 (Simonsig 1st, Ubak 7th, Nichols Canyon 3rd, Yorkhill 1st, Black Op 2nd)

Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle 2 (Yorkhill 1st, Finian’s Oscar 1st)

Bet At racingtv.com Novices’ Hurdle 2 (Spirit Son 1st, Finian’s Oscar 1st)


69

DAY THREE RACE THREE

DOOM BAR MAGHULL

NOVICES’ CHASE

Grade 1, 1m 7f 176y

OVERVIEW

HANDED Grade 1 status back in 1995, this is another novice event at the meeting with an illustrious

roll of honour, which includes Sprinter Sacre, Special Tiara and Douvan during the past decade.

The Arkle Trophy at Cheltenham is often the best guide, and Paul Nicholls has trained no fewer

than seven winners of this race, going back to 1999 when Flagship Uberalles was successful under

a young Joe Tizzard.

ARKLE TROPHY

BETWEEN 1993 and 2009, the only winner not

to have run in the Arkle Challenge Trophy at the

Cheltenham Festival was Ballinclay King, who was

successful in 2001, the year there was no festival.

During this period, Nakir, Flagship Uberalles, Well

Chief and Tidal Bay all completed the Arkle-Maghull

double, whilst Squire Silk, Armaturk, Ashley

Brook, Foreman and Kalahari King all finished

second or third at Cheltenham.

More recently, the Arkle hasn’t been quite as

dominant, but Ornua became the fourth winner

in the past nine to hail from the Cheltenham

contest. He was a faller at the festival, and, in

fact, five of 2019’s seven-strong field had

run in the Arkle. Other winners during this

period to graduate from the Arkle were Finian’s

Rainbow, who had finished runner-up, and

both Sprinter Sacre and Douvan completed

the double.

Since 2008, only three Arkle winners have

attempted to follow up in the Maghull and all

three have been successful. Going back to 1999, a

further two have won and the overall record during

those past 22 years stands at five winners from

seven runners.

Four winners since 1998 – including 2019’s

winner – had fallen in the Arkle, and although five

of the past seven winners skipped Cheltenham, the

Arkle remains the obviously starting point when

assessing the Maghull.

OTHER KEY RACES

ORNUA became the second winner in six years

to have contested Sandown’s Henry VIII Novices’

Chase earlier in the season, where he had finished

runner-up to the subsequently sidelined Dynamite

Dollars. Balder Succes finished unplaced in

the early-December Grade 1, which was won this

season by Dan Skelton’s front-running Allmankind,

who had 2½ lengths to spare over Hitman.

Aside from the Arkle, the most notable guide to

this race has been Warwick’s Kingmaker Novices’

ALLMANKIND WINNING THE HENRY VIII


Chase. Since 1997, seven winners of this race had

finished first or second in that particular race,

most recently Diego du Charmil, who finished

runner-up. Both Finian’s Rainbow and Balder

Succes won the Kingmaker, as did Flagship Uberalles

(1999), Cenkos (2000) and Armaturk (2002).

Allmankind also won the Kingmaker and the

track at Aintree could be ideal for his style of racing.

EXPERIENCE/CURRENT FORM

HAVING started his chasing career back in May,

and having run three times through the summer

of 2018, Ornua was really quite experienced by

the time Aintree came around, this being his ninth

start over fences. He was more experienced than

most winners of this race, although San Benedeto

boasted a similar profile and had actually run

10 times over fences before winning the Maghull.

The average in terms of number of previous runs

would appear to be four or five, whilst nine of the

past 12 winners had all won at least three times over

fences. Five horses during this period had racked

up four (4) or five (1) wins, so respect those who

line-up with a string of 1s next to their name.

Going back to 1999, eight last-time-out winners

were successful here, including four successive

winners between 2014 and 2017. In addition to this,

a further eight finished runner-up (6) or third (2) on

their previous start. Another four fell last time out,

leaving just Special Tiara as the only winner during

this period to finish unplaced (when completing)

on their previous start. Look to those who arrive

at Aintree in good form.

FLAT-TRACK FORM

PLENTY of recent winners had recorded victories

on speed-based/flat tracks, so also pay close

attention to where your selection has been running

earlier in the campaign, especially if looking at

those who avoided Cheltenham.

FRENCH-BRED DOMINANCE

PRIOR to 2019, French-bred horses had won

the previous three renewals of the Maghull, and

in total this century, 10 of the 20 winners were

French-bred. There were only two in the race in

2019 – Destrier and Caid du Lin – and overall during

this 20-year period, 49 French-bred runners, from

a total of 134 (37%). Therefore, a strike rate of 50%

reads well, in comparison. Looking more recently,

eight of the past 13 winners were French-bred.

Two German-bred horses – Foreman and Well

Chief – have won this race since 2004, whilst a

further three, between 2002 and 2011, finished

runner-up. Three took their chance without success

KEY TRENDS

Arkle winners are 5-7 during the past

22 years (record since 2008 is 3-3)

18 of the 19 winners between 1993 and 2012

(excluding 2001) ran in the Arkle

7 of the past 23 winners finished 1st or 2nd

in the Kingmaker at Warwick


3 times over fences


Also respect German-bred runners

8 of the past 21 winners won last-time-out

A further 8 (during the same period)

finished 2nd or 3rd last-time-out

10 of the past 13 winners were sent chasing

after 7 or less hurdles runs

Respect flat-track form

Paul Nicholls boasts a fantastic record in the

race

Henry de Bromhead has won 3 of the past

7 renewals

Focus on the top of the market

Only 1 of the past 21 winners finished

unplaced (when completing) last-time-out

Only 1 of the past 23 winners started greater

than 6/1

No 5yo winner since the age allowance was

removed

No 9yo winner since 1973

in 2010 and Lalor failed to make an impact in 2019,

but two winners and three seconds from just nine

runners in 18 years is a good record.

AGE

THERE was no five-year-old representation in

2019, and, in fact, during the past 10 years, only

once has that generation been represented,

when three of them contested the 2015 renewal.

Since the removal of the age-allowance, no

five-year-old has been successful, although not

many have tried (as you can see) in recent seasons.

It will, therefore, be interesting to see if the aforementioned

Allmankind takes his chance, as his style

of racing really ought to be ideally suited to this

track.

At the other end of the scale, there has been

no nine-year-old winner since 1973, although

again you wouldn’t really expect to see many

horses older than eight contesting a Grade 1

novice chase. Knocknanuss did take his chance as



71


a nine-year-old in 2019 (finished unplaced), whilst

both Overturn and Alderwood – who were sent

off at 11/4 and 2/1F respectively – were notable

‘losers’ in recent years. The pair finished placed

behind Special Tiara.

MARKET FORCES

THIS has been a race really dominated by those

towards the head of the betting, and Ornua was

sent off joint-favourite last year. Since 1997, only

one of the 23 winners was sent off at bigger

than 6/1, that being 28/1 outsider Special Tiara.

That shock aside, it really has paid to focus on the

top three in the market.

LIGHTLY-RACED AS HURDLERS

ORNUA was a second-season novice when contesting

the 2018 Top Novices’ Hurdle (finished 10th

behind Lalor) but had still only had seven starts

over hurdles, and 10 of the past 13 runners had run

no more than seven times over the smaller obstacles.

Respect those who were sent chasing after

their novice hurdle campaign.

TRAINERS TO NOTE

WITH seven winners to his name since 1999, Paul

Nicholls boasts a fantastic record in this race

and saddled his most recent winners in 2017 and

2018. Without a runner in 2019’s race, Nicholls has

saddled seven seconds as well as his seven winners,

all from 23 runners during the past 22 years.

That’s a remarkable 61% of his runners in the race

have finished first or second.

Ornua supplied Henry de Bromhead with a third

winner of the race in the space of seven years and

all from six runners. Special Tiara set the ball rolling,

and given that he was sent off at 28/1, the

trainer’s level-stake profit is very healthy, currently

standing at £32.50. The County Waterford handler

clearly has an affinity with this race and also saw

Petit Mouchoir finish runner-up three years ago.

He takes this meeting very seriously and his runners

– particularly here – warrant plenty of respect.

Captain Guinness would appear to be the stable’s

leading 2m novice chaser this season, and the likely

better ground at Aintree would be suitable. At the

time of writing, he has never had the chance to

run on anything better than soft, but shapes like

a horse who could improve for less-demanding

conditions. The progressive Epson du Houx would

be another possible from the de Bromhead stable,

although he could also be considered for the Red

Rum on the opening day.

CAPTAIN GUINNESS

ROLL OF HONOUR



2019 2122F Ornua 8 11-4 151 3/1JF H De Bromhead (IRE) 7 fell Gr.1 Arkle Trophy (25)

2018 132F Diego du Charmil 6 11-4 143 5/1 P Nicholls 6 fell Ascot Nov. Chase (20)

2017 U3111 San Benedeto 6 11-4 150 4/1 P Nicholls 5 1st Ascot Nov. Chase (6)

2016 11111 Douvan 6 11-4 161 2/13F W Mullins (IRE) 5 1st Gr.1 Arkle Trophy (25)

2015 91U11 Sizing Granite 7 11-4 145 9/2 H De Bromhead (IRE) 6 1st Leopardstown Nov. Chase (42)

2014 F1511 Balder Succes 6 11-4 153 7/2 A King 7 1st Gr.2 Pendil Nov. Chase (42)

2013 21125 Special Tiara 6 11-4 124 28/1 H De Bromhead (IRE) 6 5th Leopardstown Nov. Chase (34)

2012 1111 Sprinter Sacre 6 11-4 169 1/7F N Henderson 4 1st Gr.1 Arkle Trophy (32)

2011 1112 Finian’s Rainbow 8 11-4 157 10/11F N Henderson 7 2nd Gr.1 Arkle Trophy (25)


Arkle Trophy 4 (2nd, Finian’s Rainbow 2nd, Sprinter Sacre 1st, Douvan 1st, Ornua fell)

Kingmaker Novices’ Chase 3 (Finian’s Rainbow 1st, Balder Succes 1st, Diego du Charmil 2nd)

Ascot Novices’ Handicap Chase 2 (San Benedeto 1st, Diego du Charmil fell)

Henry VIII Novices’ Chase 2 (Balder Succes unpl., Ornua 2nd)


RYANAIR STAYERS

LIVERPOOL HURDLE

Grade 1, 3m 149y

DAY THREE RACE FOUR

OVERVIEW

FORMERLY staged at Ascot, the Ryanair Stayers Liverpool Hurdle was moved to the Grand

National meeting in 2004, when it was originally a Grade 2 contest that opened the three-day fixture.

Now a Grade 1 event (since 2010), it forms part of Grand National day and, like the Stayers’ Hurdle at

Cheltenham, was won for four successive seasons by Big Buck’s from 2009 to 2012.


2019’s winner If The Cap Fits became just the

second since the race was moved to Aintree to

have not run at the previous month’s Cheltenham

Festival. Monet’s Garden, back in 2005, was

the other, so, in total, 14 of the 16 winners had run

at Cheltenham.

Of the 16, rather unsurprisingly, 11 had contested

the Stayers’ Hurdle, with Iris’s Gift (the inaugural

winner of this race), Solwhit and Thistlecrack also

completing the double. During the 16 years of the

race, 11 Stayers’ Hurdle winners have attempted

to follow up in this race, with seven successful.

Since the race was upgraded, the record of the

Stayers’ Hurdle winner now stands at five winners

from six runners, with only Cole Harden failing,

when runner-up six years ago. The past three

winners of the Stayers’ Hurdle (prior to last year,

when it wasn’t an option) have failed to turn up

at Aintree.

Whisper had won the Coral Cup prior to his first

win in this race, whilst Yanworth and Identity Thief

stepped up markedly in distance when winning

recent renewals, having run in the Champion

Hurdle on their previous start. Given that there is

the option of the – more illustrious (and more valuable)

– Aintree Hurdle over 2m4f, it was slightly

surprising to see both jump up by a mile. In 2019,

Apple’s Jade was sent off odds-on to make it three

winners in a row to have contested the Champion

Hurdle on their previous starts, but she could finish

only third, in what was a fantastic three-way finish.


AS stated in the Overview, this is another race in

which good form at this meeting previously is a

positive, and although If The Cap Fits had never run

at the track over hurdles, he had finished fourth in

the Grade 2 bumper in 2017.

In total, 14 of the 16 winners of this race had run

at the meeting previously, with 11 of those finishing

either first or second. Obviously, the multiple

winners of the race help enhance this statistic, but

it is still very much worth noting.

In fact, only five defending champions have

returned the following year in this race, and all

five won. Big Buck’s counts for three of these, with

the other pair being Mighty Man (won in 2006 and

2007) and Whisper. 2019’s winner If The Cap Fits

has been chasing this season, but hasn’t totally

convinced over fences. He does hold an entry in the

Stayers’ Hurdle – as well as in three of the novice

chases at the festival – so there is a small chance

that he could revert to hurdles. Runner-up from the

latest running Roksana would seem a more likely

candidate at this stage, however, as she has looked

as good as ever this season, and also finished

runner-up to Santini in the 2018 Sefton. Her course


73

DAY THREE RACE FOUR

form at Aintree reads 222, and was beaten just a

head and a neck on her last two visits to Liverpool.

Novice hurdle form from this meeting also

warrants plenty of respect. Dual winner Mighty

Man had won the Top Novices’ Hurdle, whilst

both Monet’s Garden and Blazing Bailey finished

runner-up in the Mersey Novices’ Hurdle over

2m4f. Although he failed to win this race,

top-class stayer Inglis Drever also finished fourth

in the Mersey (two places behind Monet’s Garden),

so stayers can come out of that race. Both Iris’s Gift

and Thistlecrack had won the previous season’s

Sefton Novices’ Hurdle.

The Aintree Hurdle has also thrown up a

couple of winners, with Solwhit winning the 2m4f

contest some four years before winning this, and

Identity Thief finished sixth in that race 12 months

before winning this.

OTHER KEY RACES

AS with the Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham, there

are three key races earlier in the campaign, starting

with Newbury’s Long Distance Hurdle which was

won this season by Thyme Hill. He was in receipt

of 3lbs when beating Paisley Park (with subsequent

Relkeel winner McFabulous back in third),

whilst the form was turned around at Ascot just 22

days later, when Emma Lavelle’s stable star won an

enthralling renewal of the Long Walk Hurdle for a

second time in three years. Both of those events

were won by Big Buck’s (x3) and Thistlecrack in

the past 11 years, and the aforementioned Roksana

finished third behind Paisley Park and Thyme Hill

in the pre-Christmas Grade 1.

Big Buck’s only used the Cleeve Hurdle (at Cheltenham

on trials day) ahead of his final win in the

Stayers’ Hurdle and this race, whilst Thistlecrack

also won that event before completing the Cheltenham-Aintree

double in 2016. The Cleeve was

lost (twice) this year, with the abandonment of

trials day, followed by the cancellation of Wetherby

a week later, where the Grade 2 was set to

be restaged.

Away from the staying events, two of the past

three winners had contested the Christmas Hurdle

at Kempton on Boxing Day, although it is hard to

imagine any of the five runners from this season’s

renewal stepping up in distance.

PROVEN CLASS

HAVING won the Coral Ascot Hurdle earlier in the

campaign, If The Cap Fits became the 15th winner

in the 16 years to have already scored at Grade

1 or Grade 2 level. To date, only Whisper (ahead

of his first win in the race) hadn’t won in either

KEY TRENDS

Stayers’ Hurdle winners are 5-6 since the

race became a Grade 1

14 of the 16 winners ran at the Cheltenham

Festival

The record of last year’s winner stands at 5-5

15 of the 16 winners had previously won a

Grade 1 or Grade 2

14 of the 16 winners had run at the meeting

previously (12 of them had finished 1st or

2nd at this fixture)

11 of the 16 winners had won over 3m

(although the past 3 winners were all trying

the trip for the first time)

8 of the 16 winners were officially top-rated

Horses rated 170+ are 6-7

7 of the past 11 favourites have won

Respect novice hurdle form from this meeting

Respect Grade 1 form over shorter

Only 2 winners sent off bigger than 11/2

(the past 2 winners)

Only 2 winners since the race was upgraded

had not already won a Grade 1

No winner older than 9

grade prior to winning this race. Since the race

was upgraded, all bar two of the winners (one

being the latest winner) had won at the very top

level previously.


EIGHT of the 16 winners were officially top-rated

on BHA ratings. During the 16 years, only seven

horses with a rating of 170+ have contested this

race, and six were successful. This is hardly an original

statistic, as such horses are always sure to be

sent off at short odds; however, it again shows that

this division often has a dominant performer in it,

who rates a fair bit higher than the opposition. The

only one to be beaten was Inglis Drever, who was

rated 172 when finishing third in 2008, and that

was actually his fourth defeat at the Grand National

meeting.

MARKET FORCES

GIVEN that the race has been dominated by some

high-class performers, it shouldn’t come as too

much of a surprise that seven favourites have been

successful in the past 11 renewals. Iris’s Gift also

justified favouritism in the first running of the race

at Aintree, whilst a further six were sent off either


second- or joint-second-favourite. These include

2019’s winner, who became just the second winner

of the race to return with a starting price greater

than 11/2, the other being Identity Thief three years

ago. The latter is the only winner of the race to have

been sent off bigger than 7/1, so it usually pays to

focus on the head of the market.

STAMINA

IF THE CAP FITS became just the fifth winner

of the race to have not won over 3m previously.

He had actually never raced this far and, as touched

upon already, there is a growing influence in the

past three years of those with smart form over

much shorter (rather in keeping with the Stayers’

Hurdle at Cheltenham) coming to the fore.

Mighty Man and Solwhit are another pair of examples

of this, although the latter had, of course,

proven his stamina at Cheltenham. Respect those

with Grade 1 form over shorter.

AGE

ONLY two nine-year-olds have been successful,

and one of those was Big Buck’s when recording a

fourth win in the race, whilst the other 14 winners

were aged either six (4), seven (7) or eight (3).

Horses in double-digits won the last three renewals

of the race at Ascot, but since the race switched

to Aintree, there have been no winners older than

the age of nine.

CONNECTIONS TO NOTE

THE four victories of Big Buck’s have Paul Nicholls

as the leading trainer in this race, whilst both of

Nicky Henderson’s wins in the race were also

achieved by the same horse, Whisper.

The only trainer to have won the race with two

separate horses (since the race moved to Aintree)

is Alan King, who saddled Blazing Bailey in 2008

and Yanworth nine years later. He has been without

a runner since his last win in the race and

has actually only saddled six runners in the race

in total, with Smad Place finishing third in 2013.

He wouldn’t appear to have anything for this year’s

race again.

Apple’s Jade and Prince Of Scars both finished

third in the past five years, and both carried the

silks of Gigginstown House Stud, who won the race

three years ago with Identity Thief. Their support

of this meeting has already been well-documented

under various races, and again this seems a race

which they have been happy to target in recent

seasons. Again, whether or not they have anything

for this year remains to be seen, but a record of

one winner and two thirds from four runners

is noteworthy. Fury Road could be an option for

Gigginstown this year, although he finished only

fourth in Leopardstown’s Christmas Hurdle when

last seen. He did finish just in front of Thyme Hill in

last year’s Albert Bartlett, however, and remains

an unexposed young stayer.

DAY THREE RACE FOUR

ROLL OF HONOUR



2019 2132 If The Cap Fits 7 11-7 152 7/1 H Fry 15 2nd Gr.2 Fontwell Hurdle (41)

2018 624 Identity Thief 8 11-7 153 14/1 H de Bromhead (IRE) 10 4th Gr.1 Champion Hurdle (32)

2017 111D Yanworth 7 11-7 163 9/4F A King 11 disq. Gr.1 Champion Hurdle (25)

2016 21111 Thistlecrack 8 11-7 174 2/7F C Tizzard 6 1st Gr.1 Stayers’ Hurdle (23)

2015 25 Whisper 7 11-7 163 5/1 N Henderson 9 5th Gr.1 Stayers’ Hurdle (30)

2014 33121 Whisper 6 11-7 159 4/1 N Henderson 7 1st Gr.3 Coral Cup (24)

2013 211 Solwhit 9 11-7 164 9/4F C Byrnes (IRE) 13 1st Gr.1 Stayers’ Hurdle (21)

2012 1111 Big Buck’s 9 11-7 174 2/9F P Nicholls 8 1st Gr.1 Stayers’ Hurdle (28)

2011 111 Big Buck’s 8 11-7 174 4/6F P Nicholls 11 1st Gr.1 Stayers’ Hurdle (21)


Stayers’ Hurdle 5 (Big Buck’s 1st & 1st, Solwhit 1st, Whisper 5th, Thistlecrack 1st)

* Liverpool Stayers’ Hurdle 3 (Big Buck’s 1st & 1st, Whisper 1st)

Long Walk Hurdle 3 (Big Buck’s 1st & 1st, Thistlecrack 1st)

Long Distance Hurdle 3 (Big Buck’s 1st & 1st, Thistlecrack 1st)



75

DAY THREE RACE FIVE

BETWAY HANDICAP CHASE

Grade 3, 3m 210y

OVERVIEW

A MAXIMUM field of 18 went to post in 2019’s Betway Handicap Chase, which went the way of the

lightly-raced novice Kildisart. Now the race which precedes the Grand National, Don’t Push It won

this race 12 months before winning the National, and in doing so provided trainer Jonjo O’Neill with

his fourth win in the race in the space of 10 years. The race was handed Grade 3 status in 2018.

CHELTENHAM FORM

KILDISART became the 11th winner in the past 18

years to have run at the Cheltenham Festival. Dropping

in class, he had contested the Marsh Novices’

Chase on his previous start, finishing 10 lengths

behind runner-up Lostintranslation, who franked the

form 24 hours earlier. He had also contested a

Grade 1 the previous spring, when well-beaten in

the Mersey Novices’ Hurdle on this same card, but

he clearly had a class edge on many of his rivals

in this event.

Four winners of this between 2007 and 2017

ran in the Paddy Power Plate on their previous

outing, with three of them finishing unplaced,

before appreciating the step up in distance (as, of

course, did 2019’s winner). From Dawn To Dusk did

finish third in the ‘Plate’ but don’t be put off by an

unplaced finish last time.

Other recent winners of this race to have

run at the festival were Carbury Cross (2nd,

Ultima), Sleeping Night (1st, Foxhunter), Don’t

Push It (unplaced, Pertemps Final) and Saint Are

(unplaced, Close Brothers), whilst Duke Of Lucca

twice used the Cross Country Chase as a prep for

this. He finished unplaced on both occasions.

Back to Kildisart, who had earlier won the Timeform

Novices’ Handicap Chase at Cheltenham on

trials day, a race which has produced three winners

of this race in the past nine years. Both Saint Are

(unseated rider) and Battle Group (3rd) had run in

that race over 2m5f in late-January, a race which

was won last year by Simply The Betts, who beat

Imperial Aura, in what looked a strong renewal.

That pair both went on to enjoy Cheltenham Festival

success last March, whilst this year's race was

lost when trials day was abandoned. Perhaps the

novices' handicap chase from Sandown (former

festival race) will prove to be a good guide.

WEIGHTS AND RATINGS

PRIOR to 2019, only two winners of this –

Reveillez and Sizing Codelco – in the past 15

had carried more than 11st to victory. However, Kildisart

shouldered top-weight to become the second

winner in three years to carry over 11st. Perhaps this

suggests that the quality of the race is on the rise,

in keeping with the race being upgraded in 2018.

Don’t Push It and Kildisart are the only pair to

have won from a mark higher than 140 in the past

12 renewals, with 2019’s winner successful from a

rating of 148. 2019’s runner-up Mister Malarky was

also a Graded-class novice performer (had won the

Reynoldstown before finishing fourth in the RSA)

and was racing off a mark of 147, so the top two in

the weights finished in that order. It will be interesting

to see if any novices drop down from Grade

1 company this year and whether this is to become

a trend in itself.


The previous nine winners were rated between

131 and 140, with six falling between 134 and 139.

NOVICES

THE last two winners were novices and it is now

four wins in the past eight renewals for novices.

Battle Group was a second-season novice and had

actually finished runner-up in the race 12 months

earlier, when Saint Are shed his maiden tag in this

event. The past two winners had both won twice

over fences earlier in the season and are the only

two winners during the 13 years to have won over

fences earlier in the campaign. Battle Group was

actually the only other seasonal winner during this

period, although his success came over hurdles.

CURRENT FORM

AS touched upon briefly in the previous subsection,

none of the non-novice winners of this race (and

even one of the novices) were successful earlier in

the season, so don’t be put off by this. Only two of

the past 14 winners won last time out, whilst only

one more finished in the first three. Again, don’t be

put off by an unplaced effort last time.

STAMINA/TACTICS

KILDISART defied a couple of key trends in 2019, in

that he came from off the pace and was also having

his first start at the trip. It can usually pay to focus

on those with proven stamina and who like to race

up with the pace. The one who ticked plenty of

boxes was runner-up Mister Malarky, a prominently-ridden

novice with proven form over this sort of

distance. Colin Tizzard’s chestnut ran a sound race

under Jonjo O’Neill jnr and his profile is one that

we should continue to focus on.

Six of the past eight winners had already won

over at least 3m, whilst prominently-ridden horses

continue to do well in this event. Both Thomas

Patrick and Sizing Codelco made virtually all.


AS stated already, 2019’s winner had contested the

Mersey Novices’ Hurdle three years ago, whilst four

straight winners between 2012 and 2015 had run at

the meeting previously, with three of them proving

successful. Battle Group (2nd) and Duke Of Lucca

(6th) had run in this race the year before winning,

too. The former, of course, won twice at this meeting

in 2013, winning the Gaskells Handicap Hurdle

(when it was staged on the Thursday) and he is one

of three winners during the past 11 years to have

run over hurdles earlier in the campaign.

KEY TRENDS


Cheltenham Festival

(this includes 10 of the past 15)


9 of the past 10 winners were rated between

131 and 140

10 of the past 13 winners failed to win earlier

in the season

6 of the past 8 winners had already won

over 3m

3 of the past 11 winners had run over hurdles

earlier in the season

Respect those who race prominently

Respect previous form at this meeting

Jonjo O’Neill is 4-9 since 2000

Philip Hobbs has trained 3 of the past

10 winners


than 11st

Only 2 of the past 14 winners won last time

out

CONNECTIONS TO NOTE

PHILIP HOBBS has trained three winners of this

race during the past decade, and prior to that

had saddled another quintet who finished either

second (3) or third (2). During the past 10 renewals,

Hobbs has only had 10 runners in the race and

backing them blindly would have yielded a profit of

£21.50 to a level-stake £1. Hobbs is quite selective

in the horses he sends to Aintree and any runners

from his yard in this race warrant plenty of respect.

Jonjo O’Neill saddled four winners between

2000 and 2009, with his first three runners of this

century – Radiation, Carbury Cross and Master

Tern – all successful. Don’t Push It was his fourth

winner of this race and he has only saddled three

horses since. Without a runner since 2014, O’Neill’s

runners should also be greatly respected, as his

record since 2000 stands at four winners from just

nine runners (44%).

The last two of Jonjo O’Neill’s winners carried

the silks of JP McManus, who also won the race

with Reveillez. The leading owner hasn’t been

represented in this race in the past three renewals,

but with three wins already on the board, his

runners warrant serious consideration (as with all

of the spring festival handicaps).

DAY THREE RACE FIVE


77

DAY THREE RACE FIVE

ROLL OF HONOUR



2019 2114 Kildisart 7 11-12 148 8/1 B Pauling 18 4th Gr.1 JLT Nov. Chase (23)

2018 28141 Thomas Patrick 6 10-10 139 3/1F T Lacey 16 1st Newbury Handicap Chase (21)

2017 8P240 Sizing Codelco 8 11-3 139 10/1 C Tizzard 16 15th Gr.3 Festival Plate (23)

2016 1356 Maggio 11 10-9 140 50/1 P Griffin (IRE) 14 6th Listed Kelso Chase (27)

2015 F58U8 Duke of Lucca 10 10-4 137 9/2 P Hobbs 10 8th Cheltenham Cross Country Chase (31)

2014 60264 Duke of Lucca 9 10-7 134 12/1 P Hobbs 17 4th Cheltenham Cross Country Chase (24)

2013 5F031 Battle Group 8 10-9 131 7/2F K Bishop 18 1st Gr.3 Aintree Handicap Hurdle (2)

2012 524U0 Saint Are 6 10-13 137 11/1 T Vaughan 14 14th Listed Cheltenham Handicap Chase (32)

2011 U535 Prince de Beauchene 8 10-5 138 10/1 H Johnson 15 5th Gr.3 Newbury Handicap Chase (35)


Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase 3 (Saint Are u.r., Battle Group 3rd, Kildisart 1st)

*Betway Handicap Chase 3 (Battle Group 2nd, Duke of Lucca 6th & 1st)

Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 2 (Duke of Lucca 4th & 8th)


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RANDOX HEALTH

Grand National Preview

BY MICHAEL WHITE

THIS is the part where we should be pouring over

last year’s Grand National, the latest renewal of one

of the world’s most famous horse races - lauding

the glorious winner and their connections, picking

out where things went wrong for some, scouring the

‘what ifs’ – but in 2020, the world had other plans.

COVID-19 meant that the great four mile, two

and a half furlong steeple chase was not run for

the first time since the second World War, well,

not in real life anyway. We were, however, treated

to a virtual version of the race, televised nationally

on ITV, with Potter’s Corner galloping to victory

in glorious CGI, in front of an amazing 4.8 million

people. If we weren’t sure what kind of impact

and appeal the Grand National has, those viewing

figures hammer home just how this race, more than

any other, has been taken into the hearts of these

British Isles to such an extent that even a computerised

version of it draws that kind of audience.

As for the actual race itself, if only it was as easy

as finding an algorithm to accurately predict the

who, what and where! Even armed with decades

of numbers, statistics and tendencies, 30 of the

biggest fences in the game combined with 39

other runners all bustling for position can often

blow even the most solid of reasoned arguments

out of the water.

However, over the last decade, the changes to

the Grand National have been many and as a result,

there has been a seismic shift in the type of horses

that now go well in the race on a regular basis. A

slightly shorter trip, combined with the revision of

the height and makeup of the fences, make the

Grand National an unquestionably softer test than

it used to be – not that those changes make the

race any less of a spectacle or any less of a daunting

job for the jockeys tasked with steering their

mounts round!

This means that, where punters had previously

searched for the dourest stayers possible who had

saddlebags worth of experience, they now look

for those horses who are younger, less exposed,

higher class and horses who have the potential to

improve. As a result, the Grand National is now

the highest-quality staying handicap run under

National Hunt rules, with pretenders rated in the

high 130s no longer guaranteed a run – in fact, the

2019 renewal’s bottom weight, Joe Farrell, was

rated 142.

Only two horses in the last four renewals of the

race have reached the frame from an official handicap

mark of less than 147 (Bless The Wings, 3 rd

when rated 143 in 2018 & Walk In The Mill, 4 th o ff

144 in 2019) so it’s clear that the quality of the

Grand National has risen markedly in the past ten

years. In fact, nine horses to have finished in the

top four in the past four years were all rated 150 or

above – ratings that would usually give any punter

some cause for concern in many of the better handicap

chases through the NH Calendar.

With that in mind, 2019’s victory for Tiger Roll,

the second in a row for Gordon Elliott’s larger-thanlife

stable star, was perhaps more predictable than

you might have initially thought. With the handicapper

often condensing the weights in order for

the classier types to run, as well as the aforemen-


tioned ‘easier’ test that the race itself presents, it

is no longer the disadvantage that it used to be

to carry big weights around Aintree. Until Don’t

Push It won the race in 2010 carrying 11st 5lb, there

was only one winner to carry over 11st since 1984

(Hedgehunter in 2005), yet in the last ten years,

five winners have carried 11st or more. It’s a clear

trend in favour of higher-rated horses and one that

certainly looks set to continue in this unique race.

Still, the highest winning mark remains 160 (Many

Clouds, 2015) and we do have to remember that,

when it boils down to it, this race is a handicap,

and winning from astronomically high marks of

around 160 or more is always going to be incredibly

difficult.

With a maximum field of 40 taking to the

track, narrowing down the runners using trends

and statistics is a hugely helpful exercise and one

that, given the strength of many of these trends, is

proven to maximise your chances of making a profit

come that famous Saturday in April. One such

trend, and a notorious one at that, is the fact that

no seven-year-old has won the race since Bogskar

in 1940, a massive ‘no no’ that supporters of Welsh

National hero, Secret Reprieve, should be aware of,

as well as supporters of Monsieur Cottin’s Easysland.

Expanding on the age trends, every winner

of the Grand National since veteran Amberleigh

House’s triumph in 2004 has been aged eight to

eleven and, more recently, each of the last five

winners of the race have been eight or nine. In the

last twenty years, there have only been five winners

aged older than ten, with three of those coming

in a somewhat anomalous ‘clump’ between 2012

and 2014.

Very simply, and again with reference to the

rising quality of the race, we must look towards

those horses aged eight, nine and ten, the age

range where jumpers are either already at the very

top of their game or are arriving at that pinnacle.

28 of the 40 horses to have finished in the top four

of a Grand National since 2010 have been in that

age range and a 70% strike rate is certainly strong

enough to take notice of. The likes of Kimberlite

Candy and Cloth Cap (both well-supported in

the early Ante Post markets) slot nicely into that

preferred age range.

So, after selecting only eight to ten-year-olds

who are rated from 147-160, that already cuts the

106-strong entry list down to a more manageable

28 horses, but clearly, plenty more ruthlessness

is required here. Therefore, we move onto trends

that may seem rather obvious, yet trim more horses

from the list than you may initially think. Firstly,

despite the test being less than it used to be, the

basic facts about the Grand National remain the

same: a horse has to stay very well – 26 of the last

28 winners had won a three-mile chase before –

and they have to have enough experience for a

race of this nature – all of the last 12 winners had

ten or more chase runs to their name.

While you don’t have to be Sherlock Holmes to

see that these things are important, the fact that

we are now only left with 15 contenders shows

that basic statistical analysis on a race with such a

wealth of data is not only helpful, but can even be

a fast track to profit. The well-fancied Irish National

winner, Burrows Saint, squeezes in here by virtue

of his February Fairyhouse run, but classy type,

Pym, falls by the wayside amongst a few others.

One final curious statistic to note is one that also

applies to the other big staying race in Springtime,

the Cheltenham Gold Cup - winners of these races

very rarely have non-winning form from previous

renewals of the contest, it seems that if you’re

going to win a Grand National or a Gold Cup these

days, you either need to be running in the race

for the first time or have to have won it already. In

terms of our four-mile plus handicap chase, every

winner since 2009 (bar Tiger Roll) hadn’t actually

run in the race before. This could be a coincidental

change and there’s no way that you can say having

experience of the National fences or a 40-runner

cavalry charge is a bad thing, but, almost counterintuitively,

it may show us that for some horses,

their first go at the race often prompts a jolt of

improvement that the experienced contenders

cannot match. No doubt this will leave some of you

aghast after pinpointing your horse for the race this

year off the back of a hard luck story or eye-catching

effort from recent previous renewals, but the

evidence suggests that, once a loser in the race,

always a loser in the race.

With all that in mind (and a couple of concessions

given that this guide is published in time for

some horses to run for the tenth time over fences

before the National), it gives us a shortlist of 13

horses who could carry the ‘trends’ banner into

battle at Aintree in April: Any Second Now, Cabaret

Queen, Canelo, Cloth Cap, Glen Forsa, Jett,

Kimberlite Candy, Lord Du Mesnil, Milan Native,

Mister Malarky, Shattered Love, The Jam Man and

Tout Est Permis.

From here, it’s a matter of personal preference

and what you look for in a Grand National winner.

In terms of finishing in the top four over the past

ten years, while the overall score is 21-15 to the

UK-trained horses in their battle over the Irish,

the score is 7-1 to the Emerald Isle in the last two

runnings. While the Irish have won three of the last


81

four races, the UK had won eight renewals in a row

before then, so clearly, these things tend to come

and go and there’s not much value in splitting the

shortlist up this way.

Instead, I prefer to make sure I’ve got a horse on

my side who I know has a very decent chance of

jumping round if they can avoid any traffic issues.

Horses who have fallen or unseated three or more

times have a poor record in the race, so Lord Du

Mesnil falls foul of this statistic, while Glen Forsa,

with a fall and an unseat plus other jumping errors

in just nine runs over fences so far, isn’t exactly

constructing a convincing case to get round either.

Jett excels in small fields, something a Grand

National will certainly not be, so he’s off my list,

while Cabaret Queen hasn’t really shown she’ll be

able to cut it in this level of company. Alan King has

repeatedly said how much he dislikes the Grand

National, so Canelo is a curious entry given he only

recorded his first 3m win in December – 4m 2½f

may be a serious stretch for him.

In terms of handicapping, if Bristol De Mai runs

from a mark of 169, as seems to be the plan, quality

horses rated from the high 140s to those rated up

to the mid 150s will end up carrying around a stone

(or more in some cases) less than the top-weight

in a handicap, even with condensed weights. This

is something that they are certainly not used to

and something that is surely a big positive to their

chances, after all, it’s a scientific fact that it’s easier

to run further carrying less weight. 35 of the initial

entries are rated 150 or over, which must be some

kind of new record, but it does mean that any horse

rated in the low 140s has a lot to do to make the

final cut.

Therefore, my eyes are drawn to two nineyear-olds

from our shortlist in the end, both rated

between 148 and 153 (at the weights publishing),

with form that ties in with each other, and in an act

of almost wanton disregard, neither of them are

Irish-trained. I know, you fool.

This shortlist would have been three if it was not

for the sad loss of the David Bridgewater-trained

The Conditional at Newbury in February. He looked

an ideal type for the race, had loads of classy

form, including a Cheltenham Festival victory in

the Ultima Handicap Chase last season and would

almost certainly have been a short-ish price on the

day. My condolences go out to the Bridgewater

team – he was a sensational servant.

Going all the way back to the 2020 Classic Chase

that The Conditional finished fourth in, the race

itself was won by the Tom Lacey-trained KIMBER-

LITE CANDY in wildly impressive style, bolting up

by ten lengths. He was last seen chasing Vieux Lion

Rouge in vain when second in the Becher Chase

here in December – his second runners-up placing

in that race in consecutive years, proving not only

his aptitude over these unique National fences, but

also the fact that 3m2f is actually too short a trip

for him. The first time he reared his head and was

considered a potential Grand National type was

after his decent fifth in the Eider Chase as a sevenyear-old.

Considering he was, in the trainer’s words,

‘just a baby’ then, that was a serious effort behind

some seasoned staying handicappers, on ground

that will have been quick enough for him. He’s a

horse that looks as if he does need some juice in the

ground, but that is factored into his price, because

if we knew it was going to be soft ground in April,

he’d surely be no more than a 12/1 shot.

I make that assumption because his next three

runs, including those two Becher seconds, is some

of the best staying handicap chase form around.

That Classic Chase win at Warwick last January

was a genuinely special performance and you could

have been forgiven for thinking that a 13lb hike in

the weights would anchor Kimberlite Candy next

time, but his run in the Becher, even if he was 24

lengths behind the winner, was hugely promising,

not just because it was his first run of the season

and he was conceding match fitness to most, not

just because he also lost a shoe, but because he

showed he could handle a mark of 153 at the age of

eight. He’s been put away now for the big day, but

if we’ve got soft ground, he is a horse who could

attract a huge amount of support and go off as

short as 8/1, especially being owned by JP McManus

and running in the popular ‘green and gold’.

But, to make sure we’re covered for a potential

good ground National, runaway Ladbrokes Trophy

winner CLOTH CAP looks to have everything

required to put up a seriously bold sight, even up

12lb in the weights for that brilliant Newbury win.

Even though the Jonjo O’Neill-trained nine-yearold

made all in his cheekpieces equipped for the

first time and got the run of the race when doing

so, the manner of that win on his preferred quicker

surface was wildly impressive – to beat any field

as strong as that by ten lengths is a sensational

performance. The second, Aye Right, has since

finished a close second in the Sky Bet Chase at

Doncaster at the end of January and then a good

third off 3lb higher in the Ultima Handicap Chase

at The Cheltenham Festival, so the 12lb hike wasn’t

actually that harsh in hindsight and still gave Cloth

Cap room to manoeuvre on better ground, something

he confirmed when bolting up at Kelso in the

Listed Premier Chase despite giving weight to the

158-rated Aso. If he can pull off similarly dominat-


ing tactics around Aintree, which are often well

suited to the race, he won’t be far away and after

that Kelso win, he’s technically now a stone well-in

given the handicapper’s new 162-rated assessment

of him.

It was interesting that O’Neill came out after the

Ladbrokes Trophy and said how he told Tom Scudamore

that the horse stays four miles and that the

rest was up to him, before saying how they’ve been

trying to get the horse highly-enough rated to get

in the Grand National – he didn’t just say that the

Ladbrokes Trophy was a prep race did he…? Cloth

Cap finished third in the Scottish National two

years ago on just his fourth ever start over fences,

which can be reflected on now as an amazing effort

for a horse so young and inexperienced over the

larger obstacles, and it also reflects incredibly well

on his chances now that he’s two years stronger

and wiser. Jonjo’s Grand National record has been

decent since Don’t Push It’s win back in 2010, with

that same horse finishing third the following year,

Sunnyhillboy finishing an agonising second in 2012

and Shutthefrontdoor’s 2015 fifth place being his

best results. However, he’s not hit the target with

any in the past five years, so perhaps Cloth Cap can

be the one to bounce him back to the big time in

colours that are certainly no stranger to National

success. Given Trevor Hemmings’ recent cutbacks,

it would also be a rather fitting success.

ANTE POST ADVICE:

KIMBERLITE CANDY EACH-WAY @ 25/1 (NOW 16/1)

CLOTH CAP EACH-WAY @ 25/1 (NOW 5/1)

PRICES CORRECT AT THE TIME OF GOING TO PRINT, AND ARE

AVAILABLE NON-RUNNER-NO-BET WITH SKYBET

(PRICES AS ADVISED MID-FEB)


83

DAY THREE RACE SIX

RANDOX HEALTH

GRAND NATIONAL

Grade 3, 4m 2f 74y

OVERVIEW

DESPITE the reduced distance and the modification to the fences, the Grand National remains the

Grand National, and still represents a unique test for any horse. The modern-day National winner

requires a touch of class (with the increased prize fund attracting more and more high-quality horses

to the race) and younger horses have come to the fore in recent seasons, rather than the hardened,

more exposed, handicappers.

Tiger Roll has, of course, won the last two renewals, and was denied his opportunity to etch his

name further into this history books 12 months ago, with the three-day meeting abandoned due to

the Covid-19 pandemic.

TIGER ROLL – HISTORY MAKER?

THE first horse to win back-to-back runnings of the

Grand National since 1974, Tiger Roll has had to

wait an extra year to see if he can become the first

horse in history to win the race on three consecutive

occasions. Red Rum won his third National

three years after his second, and despite having

had to wait an extra year to see if he can achieve

it, Gordon Elliott’s pint-sized 11-year-old is sure

to have the weight of both England and Ireland

behind him. It is easy to forget the ease with which

he won his second National two years ago, cruising

to the front and winning comfortably from a

mark of 159, some 9lbs higher than when successful

the previous year. The son of Authorized truly is

a remarkable horse, with his pedigree and physique

hardly screaming ‘Aintree specialist’, yet he has

amassed a whopping £1.38m in win-and-place

prize money, and let’s not forget that he is also a

four-time Cheltenham Festival winner.

So, can he do it at the age of 11? At the time of

writing, he still heads the ante-post market with

most firms, despite the fact that he was wellbeaten

at last year’s festival, and has since finished

sixth of nine in a maiden on the Flat, and was then

pulled-up on his return to cross-country action at

Cheltenham in November. He skipped the December

meeting and hasn’t been seen since, although

he is reportedly on course for the festival, where

he will bid win a third Glenfarclas Chase.

His owners have yet to fully commit to another

National bid (as we go to print), having aired

concerns over the mark from which he would run.

Set to run off 170 last year, he has been rated 166

for this year’s race, so it remains to be seen if he

actually lines up at Aintree.

TIGER ROLL


THE RISE OF THE YOUNGER HORSE

THE past five winners were aged eight (3) or

nine (2), which is, perhaps, in no way coincidental

to the modified fences and the increased prize

fund. As well as better horses being aimed at the

race, are trainers and owners now more prepared

to aim a horse at a National earlier than would once

have been the case? Quite possibly, I would say, and

I, therefore, expect the younger horses to continue

to dominate.

Prior to the victory of Many Clouds in 2015, there

had only been three winning eight-year-olds in

the previous 40 years. So, three in the past five

is a marked turn in fortunes, and although only

five of that age group ran in 2019, Magic Of Light

managed to finish a fine second.

Since 1996, 19 of the 24 winners were aged

eight (4), nine (8) or ten (7), with only one winning

12-year-old during this period. This again suggests

that we should now be focusing on those who are

10 or younger (this clearly a slight negative for

Tiger Roll).

At the other end of the scale, no seven-year-old

has been successful since 1940. Hardly surprising

you might think, although the number of such youngsters

who have faced the famous fences in recent

years might well come as a surprise. Since 2000,

no fewer than 42 seven-year-olds have taken their

chance in the Grand National, with Big Fella Thanks’

sixth-place in 2009 the best result. Plenty were sent

off at big odds, but of the 42, 13 started at odds of

20/1 or shorter, including Iris Bleu (sent off at 8/1 in

2003) and Jurancon (who was sent off co-favourite

the following year, for the same connections).

During this century, seven six-year-olds have also

run in the race, although none since 2005.

Looking solely at the past 10 runnings of the

National, 22 seven-year-olds have taken their chance,

with nine of those being sent off at 20-1 or shorter.

Baie des Isles (2018) and Ramses de Teillee (2019)

were the sole representatives in the past two renewals,

and this is a damning statistic for anyone who

likes the chances of Welsh Grand National winner,

Secret Reprieve. Evan Williams’ impressive Chepstow

winner is very lightly-raced, and although he

won the re-arranged Welsh equivalent in taking fashion,

it might be that this comes a year too soon for

him. It is also worth remembering that he remains a

novice for this season, and is likely to be considered

for the National Hunt Chase at the festival.

Another seven-year-old who could potentially

head here with strong claims is last year's Cheltenham

Festival (cross-country) winner Easysland,

who is currently clear favourite to follow up at this

year's festival. If successful there, he is sure to be

KEY TRENDS

10 of the past 12 winners were having their

first start in the race

19 of the past 24 winners were aged 8-10

16 of the past 21 winners were Irish-bred

12 of the past 15 winners had won over

3m1f+


meeting previously (excluding races on the

Grand National course)

7 of the past 11 winners had run between

10-14 times over fences

7 of the past 15 winners carried 11st or more

6 of the past 10 winners recorded a first 3

finish last time out

The past 3 winners won last-time-out

The past 6 winners had fallen just once (3)

or never (3)


Cheltenham Festival


(from small representation)

3 of the past 4 winners were owned by

Gigginstown House Stud

Respect form over 3m4f+

8yos have fine recent record

(from small representation)

No winning 7yo since 1940

7yos are 0-42 this century

(none have placed)

Only 1 winning 12yo in the past 24 years

Only 2 of the past 23 winners had fallen

more than twice

Only 2 of the past 36 winners had won or

placed in the Grand National previously

popular if heading to Aintree.

This time last year, I was concerned about the

seven-year-old record for Burrows Saint, who was

a horse I had thought looked an ideal Aintree type

ever since his win in the Irish Grand National. He

became just the second six-year-old winner of

that event in 34 years, when successful in April

2019, and not having been forced into battle at

the age of seven might well end up being a blessing-in-disguise

for Willie Mullins’ son of Saint des

Saints. Still completely unexposed as a staying

chaser, he disappointed on his reappearance over

hurdles Clonmel in December (reported to have

finished very tired) and faded in the Galmoy Hurdle

DAY THREE RACE SIX


85

DAY THREE RACE SIX

last time (wore a first-time hood). The ground

was desperate that day, however, so I would be

prepared to forgive any horse on that basis, and

he could now be aimed at the Bobbyjo Chase (27th

Feb). Mullins has won that race 10 times since 2005

– including the past five renewals – and a positive

showing there could set him up nicely for Aintree.

PREVIOUS AINTREE EXPERIENCE

TIGER ROLL became just the second winner in

36 years to have previously won or placed in the

race. He obviously overcame this statistic in 2019,

whilst Magic Of Light will also have this stumbling

block in her way this time around. There was a time

– not too long ago – when previous experience of

the big fences was a bonus ahead of the Grand

National, but only three of the past 10 winners had

run on this unique course previously and 10 of the

past 12 winners were having their first start in the

National itself.

Both Pineau de Re and One For Arthur had run in

the Becher Chase earlier in the season (staged over

3m2f in early-December), and that race was won

this season – for a second time (also won it in 2016)

– by the evergreen Vieux Lion Rouge, who boasts

an incredible record of completions on this track.

However, he is now 12, so of more interest could be

the placed horses, Kimberlite Candy and Le Breuil,

who were beaten a long way but still shaped with

plenty of promise. The former had finished a much

closer second 12 months earlier, before winning the

Classic Chase at Warwick, and will arrive at Aintree

a fresh horse, whilst Le Breuil would have finished

much closer but for one serious error (had jumped

well other than that) before staying on to take third

in this year’s renewal of Warwick’s Classic Chase.

Going back to earlier this century, both

Bindaree (4th) and Monty’s Pass (2nd) hit the

frame in the previous season’s Topham Chase.

However, previous experience doesn’t seem as

essential as it once was (again, perhaps, coinciding

with the modified fences), so pay healthy respect

to those who are running in the Grand National for

the very first time.

STAMINA

ONLY two winners since the turn of the century

had failed to win over 3m under Rules, and in most

cases the winners had strongly hinted that the trip

might not stretch them. Of the past 15 winners,

12 had won over 3m1f or further, with seven of

them having won over 3m4f or further. Rule The

World had also finished runner-up in the Irish

Grand National, so pay healthy respect to those

with long-distance form in the book.

Tiger Roll is a good example of a horse having

proven their stamina, having won the 4m National

Hunt Chase and one Cross-Country Chase (3m6f)

ahead of his first win in the race.

OTHER KEY RACES

THE Irish Grand National is a good place to start,

and back in 1998 the next two Aintree winners

finished first and second, with Bobbyjo beating

Papillon. Numbersixvalverde was successful at

Fairyhouse 12 months before winning at Aintree,

whilst Rule The World finished runner-up and Tiger

Roll pulled-up in the 2017 Irish National. As already

touched upon, Willie Mullins’ Burrows Saint ran out

a taking winner of the 2019 Irish Grand National,

travelling supremely well throughout, and looking

all over a future Aintree contender.

The previous season’s Scottish equivalent is also

worth noting, with Mon Mome, Neptune Colonges

and Auroras Encore all contesting the Scottish

Grand National a year before winning at Aintree.

Obviously this contest – along with the Irish Grand

National – didn’t take place in 2020.

During the current campaign, both Neptune

Collonges (pulled-up) and Many Clouds (won)

contested the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury,

won this season by Jonjo O’Neill’s Cloth Cap.

CLOTH CAP

The nine-year-old relished the good ground and

jumped really well to score in the colours of Trevor

Hemmings, whose silks are hugely identifiable with

this race. If we get a dry spring, his chance would

be greatly increased.

Already touched upon, the Classic Chase was

won last year by Kimberlite Candy and this year’s

renewal – in which Le Breuil finished third – was won

by Alan King’s Notachance. The winner is not being

aimed at Aintree, however, but is instead heading up

to Ayr to contest the Scottish equivalent the following

weekend (17th April), a race King won in 2013

with Godsmejudge. One For Arthur won the Clas-


sic Chase before he won his Grand National, and

Auroras Encore (5th) ran in the same race before

his National win, so that is two of the past seven

winners to have hailed from Warwick’s 3m5f event.

There are a couple more notable ‘trials’ after

the Guide goes to print, those being the Grand

National Trial (Haydock, 20th February) and

the Premier Kelso Chase (Kelso, 6th March).

Both Mon Mome and Neptune Collonges ran at

Haydock en route to Aintree, whilst Ballabriggs

and Auroras Encore headed to Kelso on their final

start before the National. Take note of both races.


FIVE of the past 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham

Festival the previous month, with Tiger Roll, of

course, winning the Cross Country Chase prior to

his two wins. Gordon Elliott’s earlier Grand National

winner Silver Birch also used this race as a prep

for Aintree, so it is a tried-and-tested route for the

stable.

Many Clouds ran in the Gold Cup before his

win, whilst two other recent winners – Don’t Push

It (pulled up) and Pineau de Re (3rd) – ran in the

Pertemps Final. One more race to touch upon is

the RSA Chase, with both Comply Or Die and Many

Clouds contesting that Grade 1 event during their

respective novice seasons. The latter ran in the RSA

just 13 months before winning his National, and it

should be remembered that Presenting Percy was

an impressive winner of that particular contest

(now called the Festival Novices’ Chase), albeit

that victory did come three years ago.

FORM AT AINTREE

EIGHT of the past 11 winners had run at this meeting

previously, excluding races on the National course.

Three of those were successful, with Don’t Push

It winning the Betway Handicap Chase, Auroras

Encore landing the Orrell Park Handicap Hurdle,

and Mon Mome winning an amateur riders’ novices’

handicap chase, a race which was scrapped several

years ago.

As highlighted in the past couple of years, two

winners – Neptune Collonges and One For Arthur

– and four recent placed horses all contested the

Sefton Novices’ Hurdle in the early part of their

careers. Four of 2019's 40 runners had run in the

Sefton, and although none could make an impact,

it remains something of interest. Having shown a

liking for 3m as early as your novice hurdle season

suggests that stamina is a likely strong point going

forward. Santini won the Sefton back in 2018

(and also went close in the aforementioned RSA

Novices’ Chase the following year) and he is a fascinating

entrant for Nicky Henderson. Runner-up in

the Gold Cup last year, he will bid to go one better

in March, but looks an out-and-out stayer, who

could relish the marathon trip.

CHASING EXPERIENCE

RATHER in keeping with the up-and-coming

younger horse rising to the top in recent seasons,

seven of the past 12 winners had run between 10

and 14 times over fences. Tiger Roll was only just

over this bracket ahead of his 2018 win (16 starts),

so focus on those who are far from being fully

exposed as staying chasers.

In terms of falls/unseats, only two of the past

23 winners had come down more than twice in

their careers, so look for an assured jumper. Tiger

Roll has just one unseated rider next to his name,

when getting rid of Brian Cooper in a Galway novice

chase, and the past six winners had just three previous

falls between them. Look for an assured jumper.

CURRENT FORM

THE past three winners had won last time out,

whilst Ballabriggs and Neptune Collonges both

finished runner-up on their previous start.

As stated already, Pineau de Re (3rd in the

Pertemps) and Many Clouds (6th in the Gold Cup)

had run well, so look for a horse arriving at Aintree in

good form.

WEIGHT

BETWEEN 1984 and 2004, no horse carried more

than 11st to success in the National, but since then,

five of the 15 winners carried 11-1 or more. Tiger

Roll carried 11-5 (as did Don’t Push It in 2010) in

2019, whilst the best weight-carrying performance

since the second success of Red Rum (1977) came

from Many Clouds who shouldered 11-9 to victory

six years ago. Whilst it was once the case of ruling

out those over the 11st marker, that is clearly no

longer the case. Mon Mome and Ballabriggs both

2020 Meeting cancelled

2019 11-5 / 10-11 / 11-0 / 10-4

2018 10-13 / 10-11 / 10-6 / 11-8

2017 10-11 / 10-13 / 10-10 / 11-1

2016 10-7 / 10-8 / 10-6 / 11-1

2015 11-9 / 10-6 / 10-7 / 10-3

2014 10-6 / 10-13 / 10-11 / 10-2

2013 10-3 / 10-11 / 11-3 / 10-11

2012 11-6 / 10-5 / 10-12 / 10-10

2011 11-0 / 10-9 / 11-10 / 10-6

2010 11-5 / 11-6 / 10-11 / 10-12

DAY THREE RACE SIX


87

DAY THREE RACE SIX

also carried 11-0, so that is seven of the past 15

winners to have carried between 11-0 and 11-9. As

stated already, this again hints at the improved

quality of horses towards the head of the weights.

Top-weight Anibale Fly finished fifth in 2019,

whilst Rathvinden also hit the frame carrying 11-0.

The table on the previous page shows the weights

carried by the front four, in the past 10 renewals.

BREEDING

TIGER ROLL made it 16 Irish-bred winners in the past

21, and this includes eight of the past 10 winners.

During the past 10 renewals, 61% of the Grand

National fields have been made up of Irish-bred

horses, so they are over-performing in providing

80% of the winners during the past 10 renewals.

From a much smaller pool, there have been

three French-bred winners in the past 11. Nine

French-bred horses took their chance in 2019,

with Walk In The Mill (4th) and Anibale Fly (5th)

faring best, and in total during the past 11 renewals,

just 22% of the runners were bred in France,

so again they are slightly over-performing.

Backing French-bred horses blindly during

this period would have yielded a healthy profit,

but mainly thanks to the 100/1 starting price of

Mon Mome in 2009.

CONNECTIONS TO NOTE

TIGER ROLL provided Gordon Elliott with a third

Grand National and his owners Gigginstown House

Stud with a third win in the race, in the past four

renewals. Elliott’s first win in the race came when

Robbie Power partnered Silver Birch to success

in 2007, and he saddled a remarkable 11 runners

in the race in 2019. Interestingly, the winner was

his only runner to finish in the first 11, however.

He has obviously saddled the past two winners,

whilst also seeing Bless The Wings finish third in

2018 and Cause Of Causes go one better in 2017.

Elliott entered 16 horses for this year's race at the

initial entry stage.

As for Gigginstown House Stud, they were also

heavily represented in 2019, with seven of the 40

jockeys sporting their famous maroon silks, and

they have had no fewer than 20 runners during the

past four renewals. Gigginstown also have 16 possibles

(14 of which are trained by Elliott) among the

entries this year, including Tiger Roll (obviously).

Nigel Twiston-Davies is a trainer who boasts

a fine record over the big fences in general (he

has saddled six winners in the Becher Chase, for

example), and he has won two Grand Nationals,

although those victories came in 1998 with Earth

Summit and four years later when Bindaree was

successful under Jim Culloty. The Naunton-based

trainer last went close in 2017, when Blaklion (sent

off favourite) looked the likely winner for a long

way. Twiston-Davies has five horses among this

year's initial entries, including Bristol de Mai and

The Hollow Ginge, who is sure to receive plenty

of local support.

Another owner who has been responsible for

three winners of the race is Trevor Hemmings,

who first won the race in 2005 with Hedgehunter.

Since then, Ballabriggs and Many Clouds have

carried his yellow, green and white silks to success,

and he has three entries this year, Cloth Cap, Deise

Aba and Lake View Lad.

In contrast to the ‘winners’ listed above, the

Grand National is the one big race which continues

to elude trainer Nicky Henderson. He does,

however, look to have an interesting team this

year, with Santini heading his six entries. Not seen

since winning last year's Sky Bet Chase, Ok Corral

is another to note from Seven Barrows, and he will

presumably run somewhere before Aintree.

WEIGHTS ANNOUNCED

AS with previous years, the Grand National weights

were unveiled on the same day that this Guide went

to print. Tiger Roll has been covered already, whilst

current top-weight lies with Bristol de Mai, Easysland

and Santini, who have all been handed a mark

of 167 for the race, and would carry 11-10. It would

be Nigel Twiston-Davies’ grey who comes out

best on these terms, with his official BHA Rating

currently 169.

Another high-class 10-year-old, Presenting

Percy (rated 168 in Ireland) has been given a mark

of 166, so is set to carry 11-9 at the moment. As

things stand, Burrows Saint – covered in detail

within an earlier subsection – will carry 10-13 and

is set to run off his I.H.R.B rating of 156.

Ted Walsh’s Any Second Now has been given a

mark of 152, 1lb higher than his Irish rating, whilst

there weren’t too many more surprises. Ladbrokes

Trophy winner Cloth Cap is set to run off his correct

mark of 148, whilst former high-class novice hurdler

Bellshill is on a mark of 153 (10-10). Kimerberlite

Candy races off 153, the same mark from which

he finished second in the Becher, back in early-

December.

As things stand, the top 40 horses are rated 150

or higher, so it looks like being a high-class renewal,

and only those in the high 140s are likely to get a

run. Incidentally, the aforementioned Cloth Cap,

who is fairly prominent in the market, is number

48, and Welsh National winner Secret Reprieve is

way down in 69th on a mark of 144.


DAY THREE RACE SIX

BRISTOL DE MAI

ROLL OF HONOUR



2019 411 Tiger Roll 9 11-5 159 4/1F G Elliott (IRE) 40 1st Glenfarclas Chase (24)

2018 2P51 Tiger Roll 8 10-13 150 10/1 G Elliott (IRE) 38 1st Glenfarclas Chase (31)

2017 151 One For Arthur 8 10-11 148 14/1 L Russell 40 1st Gr.3 Warwick Chase (84)

2016 32254 Rule The World 9 10-7 148 33/1 M Morris (IRE) 39 4th Gr.3 Naas Directors Plate (34)

2015 1116 Many Clouds 8 11-9 160 25/1 O Sherwood 39 6th Gr.1 Gold Cup (23)

2014 F2713 Pineau de Re 11 10-6 143 25/1 Dr R Newland 40 3rd Listed Pertemps Final (23)

2013 P45F5 Auroras Encore 11 10-3 137 66/1 S Smith 40 5th Listed Kelso Premier Chase (35)

2012 P422 Neptune Collonges 11 11-6 157 33/1 P Nicholls 40 2nd Gr.3 Grand National Trial (56)

2011 112 Ballabriggs 10 11-0 150 14/1 D McCain 40 2nd Listed Kelso Premier Chase (35)


*Scottish Grand National 2 (Neptune Collonges 6th, Auroras Encore 2nd)

Becher Chase 2 (Pineau de Re p.u., One For Arthur 5th)

Premier Kelso Chase 2 (Ballabriggs 2nd, Auroras Encore 5th)

Ladbrokes Trophy 2 (Neptune Collonges p.u., Many Clouds 1st)

Betfred Classic 2 (Auroras Encore 5th, One For Arthur 1st)

Irish Grand National 2 (Rule The World 2nd, Tiger Roll p.u.)

Cross Country Chase 2 (Tiger Roll 1st, 1st)



89

WEATHERBYS LIMITED, Sanders Road, Wellingborough, Northants, NN8 4BX

www.bettrends.co.uk +44 (0)1933 304776

AUTHOR Paul Ferguson

The views, opinions and positions expressed by the authors and those providing comments are theirs alone, and do not necessarily

reflect the views, opinions or positions of Weatherbys or any employee thereof. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy

of the information at the time of publication, Weatherbys will not be liable for any losses arising from its use.


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