2020 by the Young Diplomats Society

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NORTH AMERICANORTH AMERICAUnited States Presidential legacies are often framed in reference to theirinfluence or consequence. Abraham Lincoln is remembered for his moralauthority, Franklin D. Roosevelt for his economic management and John F.Kennedy for his skills in public persuasion. At the close of 2020, the legacyof Donald Trump’s Presidency is still in formation and likely will be foryears to come. Twelve months ago, in last year's Young Diplomats Society’sSpecial Edition, I wrote that trials of impeachment and the economicrepercussions of the US-China trade war would define Trump’s Presidencyand would become the defining issues of the 2020 election. Yet by early2020, impeachment was viewed as a distraction by the Democraticpresidential nominees and the US-China trade war felt like a distantmemory, despite its lasting ramifications.Perhaps Trump's true legacy will be the magnitudinal shift in politicalnorms he has left in his wake. This has been exemplified most potently in2020 by the President’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic and hisrefusal to accept defeat against Joe Biden in the November 2020 election.This piece will focus on the latter and show how, by disregardingpresidential norms, Trump’s legacy as a bombastic political agitator will beenshrined.
Presidential PrecedentPrior to World War II, presidential transitions wererelatively informal. The president-elect usuallyremained in their old role until mere days beforetheir inauguration and were not expected to entero ce with a legislative agenda. Meanwhile, theincumbent ‘lame duck’ Presidents (as all were beforethe introduction of a two four-year term limit in 1947)would continue to govern and generally accomplishlittle. However, two presidential transitions in the20th century give us an insight, and perhaps awarning, into the contentious transition playing outtoday.President Herbert Hoover’s landslide loss toRoosevelt in 1932 was the first. Taking place duringthe height of the Great Depression, the ‘lame duck’Hoover tried repeatedly to persuade Roosevelt toabandon the New Deal, insisting that economicrecovery was already underway. Animosity grew untilinauguration day with Hoover refusing to supportthe early implementation of Roosevelt’s agenda andtalks between both men repeatedly breaking down.Forty-five years on, Jimmy Carter’s transition in 1977would set the precedent for decades to come. As thedemands on the executive branch increasedthroughout the 20th century, the once informaltransition became a behemoth of administrativework involving thousands of civil servants andpolitical professionals. The incoming Carteradministration began its work early, recruiting keyadministrative personnel and selecting cabinetmembers. At the end of Carter’s single termpresidency, Ronald Reagan’s administration wasafforded the same benefits of early access toinformation and an obliging incumbent despiteReagan's clear intentions to reverse the ideologicaldirection of the federal government.A New Direction?The situation in 2020 echo’s the past in manyrespects. In the midst of both the dual public healthand economic crises resulting from the pandemic andlike Roosevelt, President-Elect Biden cannot afford towait until his inauguration to begin dealing withthese issues. He must open a dialogue with theoutgoing administration. Similarly, Biden does nothave the luxury of Presidents past to assume o cewithout a legislative agenda and like Carter, isassuming control of an immense executive branchand has already announced key cabinet picks andWhite House staff.At the time of writing, President Trump has refusedto concede to Biden but permitted his team to beginworking with the incoming administration.LEGACYDeclan CurtinWhile enough states have certified their results tosecure Biden’s election win, Trump still has legalavenues to pursue. However 26 of Trump's 38 legalbids to overturn or alter the result of the electionhave been denied, dismissed, settled or withdrawn.Protracted legal stouches are not entirely unknown inthe US General Election and losing presidentialcandidates have not always been forthcoming withtheir concessions. Republican candidate CharlesEvans Hughes took two weeks to congratulateincumbent Woodrow Wilson after a close race in 1916.More recently in 2000, Democrat Al Gore concededto George W. Bush on election night beforeretracting his concession once the race tightened.Trump stands on the brink of history. No presidentialcandidate in US history has refused to concededefeat once all the votes and legal challenges havebeen resolved. In a move one step closer toconcession, Trump announced on November 27 thatif the electoral college result was certified for Bidenhe would leave o ce, stating: “certainly I will”, whilstadding, “and you know that if they do, they’ve madea mistake.” Pressed on the issue of Trump notleaving, the Biden campaign said: “the United StatesGovernment is perfectly capable of escortingtrespassers out of the White House”.Trump has already sown the seed of doubt amongsthis supporters despite no evidence of fraud. APolitico poll conducted in November 2020 reportedthat 70 per cent of Republicans say the electionwasn’t ‘free and fair’. Perhaps that is all he needs.Just as was the case with his portrayal of HillaryClinton, his impeachment trial and his messagingaround coronavirus, Trump is incredibly persuasive tohis base. Ultimately, the Trump Presidency has shownthat through politics, personality and persuasion thetruth can be easily obscured long enough and wellenough to distract from the real issues.Trump may well intend to concede this election andremain politically active, either through the rumoredlaunch of his own TV station or another Presidentialrun in 2024, or both. By breaking with presidentialprecedent one last time during this transition period,Trump has rallied his base, divided the nation anddamped his own downfall as he always does. Thequestion that remains is whether Trump’s legacy willbe an isolated presidential phenomenon or anexample other presidential candidates will aspire toin pursuit of the White House.
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Page 91: 0 2 0DOCUMENTARY REVIEW: David Atte

2020 by the Young Diplomats Society

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