2020 by the Young Diplomats Society

2
MEXICO
Despite President Trump running a campaign on a
platform of demonising Mexican immigrants and
advocating for a border wall, he has shared what has
been described as an “odd bromance” with Mexico’s
populist president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
However, there is uncertainty as to whether this
cordial treatment will continue under a Biden
administration. President López Obrador has joined
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro in not
congratulating Biden on his election win, instead
waiting for the conclusion of President Trump’s legal
proceedings.
Although the future of President-Elect Biden’s personal
relationship with López Obrador remains ambiguous,
there is general confidence that we will see a shift
back towards a diplomatic relationship reminiscent of
pre-Trump administrations. Former Mexican deputy
foreign minister for North America, Andrés Rozental,
has stated that a Biden presidency will bring “a more
normal relationship. With problems and disputes on
trade and other things…but they’ll be dealt with the
way they were in the past.”
BRAZIL
Dubbed the “Trump of the Tropics”, President
Bolsonaro has remained a strong ally of President
Trump throughout his term. Having already lashed
out at President-Elect Biden over comments he made
regarding the Amazon Rainforest during a
presidential debate, President Bolsonaro’s disposition
may prove a challenge to the Biden administration
when seeking to re-establish U.S. preeminence in the
region.
The U.S. is Brazil’s second-largest trading partner in
collective goods and services. This economic
dependence will be key to President-Elect Biden’s
engagement with President Bolsonaro. Despite
Bolsonaro publicly endorsing Trump over Biden in the
election, the economic realities of Brazil’s reliance on
the U.S. may supersede his partisanship.
Washington’s relationship with President Bolsonaro
will likely be one of necessity, as well-functioning
diplomatic and economic ties with the United States
remain vital for Brazil’s economy, irrespective of the
personal sentiments Bolsonaro may hold towards
President-Elect Biden.
Time will tell the impact a Biden administration will
be able to have in Latin America. With a continent
eager for a change after years of erratic diplomacy,
there is general optimism about what a new
administration will achieve as it seeks to revitalise
the United States’ standing in the region.
VENEZUELA
The 21st century has seen Venezuela’s petroleumdependent
economy spiral into crisis and millions
of Venezuelans flee during the country’s political
and economic collapse. As the situation worsens,
eyes will be on President-Elect Biden as he
attempts to navigate diplomatic relations with a
country in turmoil. Reflecting on his time as Vice-
President during the Obama administration, U.S.
foreign policy on Venezuela was characterised by a
softer tone that focused on multilateral
cooperation. Contrastingly, President Trump’s
approach has been somewhat more haphazard,
remaining relatively uninvolved in the social and
economic crisis while denying claims of
orchestrating a foiled invasion attempt to remove
socialist President Nicolás Maduro from office. At
the same time, the Trump administration had
publicly endorsed Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s
legitimate president.
With the ability to leverage existing relationships
forged during his tenure in the Obama
administration, a Biden presidency will likely see a
focus on multilateralism to cement American
primacy in the region.
However, a key development in the Democratic
Party with its Hispanic support base may prove
decisive in how Biden deals with the United
Socialist Party of Venezuela.
The 2020 U.S. election saw Hispanic voters,
including the crucial Cuban constituency which is
pivotal in the swing state of Florida, move further
away from the Democratic Party. This is largely
due to fears among Cuban voters that Democrats
are more likely to bolster Cuban-style communism
in the United States. This narrative has been
weaponised by Republicans, playing well with
Venezuelan, Cuban and Colombian immigrants
who are wary of socialism.
Whether this shift will influence the manner in
which President-Elect Biden deals with Venezuela
remains to be seen. However, with Republicans
continuing to capitalise on the ‘socialist
sympathiser’ narrative, Biden’s approach must be
tempered by the realities of the popular vote and
partisan politics.