UnitedSky w tygodniku Poland Weekly - 19.05.2022 - 01.06.2022

19.05.2022 - 01.06.2022 business • people • culture polandweekly
9
Ukraine - The day after
From both a political and business point of view,
joining the reconstruction of Ukraine can bring
Poland huge benefits. Recent years, especially
after Ukraine signed the Association Agreement
with the EU in 2016, have brought a stable
increase in trade turnover between our countries.
Marek Ziółkowski
Ambassador retired (2021)
Russia's aggression
against Ukraine has been determining
global international
and economic relations for two
months. It encourages powerful
reflexes of solidarity towards
refugees, as well as political assistance
to the Ukrainian authorities
and equipment for the Ukrainian
army. For now, however, the
nightmare of war continues. At
the same time, the Western world
is both reassessing its relations
with Russia and Ukraine, and is
designing these relations for the
coming months and years.
The world viewed from the captain's
bridge of the cruiser Moscow
(hit and sunk) or the Su-34
bomber looks like a soulless geopolitical
game of superpowers for
spheres of influence, borders and
territories. In the West, no one
wants to give Russia the right to
draw maps in its own way. Severe
sanctions isolate Russia and, despite
the vastness of its territory,
weaken its economic, social and
political potential. Sarcastically
speaking, in order to consolidate
such a future for Russia, the West
must also build its economic policy,
especially energy policy with
a special role for Ukraine.
From the first decisions on sanctions
packages and the EU's announcements
regarding cooperation
with Ukraine, a picture
emerges of three stages of the
new EU policy of obtaining raw
materials and energy production:
importing gas and oil from Russia
until there are no new suppliers
(several months), the second - gas
and oil supplies from new directions
(2-4 years). The third, i.e. the
replacement of fossil fuels with
low-carbon energy sources, has
been going on for several years,
and due to Russia's aggression
against Ukraine, the transition
to renewables in many EU countries
will accelerate even more. In
an unexpected way, the strategy
of moving away from fossil fuels
becomes a defensive strategy in
the clash with Russia, a country
that, has been disregarding climate
policy for years. Even today,
Russian politicians and publicists
treat Western announcements of
giving up oil and gas with disbelief.
However, it is enough to recall
Biden's strong words from his
visit to Warsaw, 26.03.2022, to believe
that the geopolitics of fossil
fuels is running out. „Europe must
end its dependence on Russian
fossil fuels. And we, the United
States will help. That's why just
yesterday in Brussels I announced
the plan with the president of
the European Commission to get
Europe through the immediate
energy crisis. Over the long-term,
as a matter of economic security
and national security and for the
survivability of the planet, we all
need to move as quickly as possible
to clean, renewable energy”.
It`s confirmation also that the
reflection on the consequences
of climate change has for years
set long-term plans for the social
and economic policy of many
countries. What ensured the success
of the industrial era, i.e. the
exploitation of fossil fuels, is to be
replaced by zero-emission energy
sources. These are twin revolutions:
digital and green will determine
the winners and losers of the
current geopolitical competition.
A similar way of thinking is also
presented by many Ukrainian
politicians. Svitlana Krakovskahead
of the Ukrainian delegation
to the conference of the the UN
Svitlana Krakovska- head
of the Ukrainian delegation
to the conference of the
the UN IPCC, speaking
on 28.02.2022 at the
presentation of the next
report of this group from
the shelter in Kiev said:
“I started to think about the
parallels between climate
change and this war and it’s
clear that the roots of both
these threats to humanity
are found in fossil fuels”.
IPCC, speaking on 28.02.2022 at
the presentation of the next report
of this group from the shelter
in Kiev said: “I started to think
about the parallels between climate
change and this war and it’s
clear that the roots of both these
threats to humanity are found in
fossil fuels”.
European economy is being
consolidated. In March
this year, the European
Commission announced
RePowerEU, an action plan
to make the EU-wide energy
system more resilient.
Renewable energy sources
are to quickly replace
imported gas from Russia.
In many European capitals, the
belief that the war in Ukraine is
to be an additional impulse to accelerate
the decarbonization of
the European economy is being
consolidated. In March this year,
the European Commission announced
RePowerEU, an action
plan to make the EU-wide energy
system more resilient. Renewable
energy sources are to quickly replace
imported gas from Russia.
Talks with Ukraine on its accession
to the EU are also already
beginning. It is understandable
that this dictates the schemes and
models of Ukraine's reconstruction.
It promises to be a project
of huge financial scale (hundreds
of billions of euros), comparable
to the post-war Marshall Plan or
the reconstruction of a united
Germany.
Yulia Svyrydenko – First Deputy
Prime Minister of Economy
recently presented the main
Ukrainian demands and principles
of Ukraine's reconstruction:
full opening of the G7 and
EU markets to Ukrainian goods,
large-scale development of the
military-industrial complex
through the transfer of modern
technologies, export of processed
products in the traditional sectors
of agriculture and metallurgy,
rapid development of energy and
logistics on the principles of the
"green economy". Certainly, some
of these postulates will be met.
From both a political and business
point of view, joining the reconstruction
of Ukraine can bring
Poland huge benefits. Recent
years, especially after Ukraine
signed the Association Agreement
with the EU in 2016, have
Ukraine is becoming our
first economic partner
in the east, and the
announcements of a largescale
reconstruction of
Ukraine allow us to predict
investment and contract
opportunities for many
sectors of Polish business.
To some extent, Poland
is a kind of textbook for
Ukraine to build a modern
economy.
brought a stable increase in trade
turnover between our countries
(about US$15 billion in 2020).
Ukraine is becoming our first
economic partner in the east, and
the announcements of a largescale
reconstruction of Ukraine
allow us to predict investment
and contract opportunities for
many sectors of Polish business.
To some extent, Poland is a kind
of textbook for Ukraine to build
a modern economy. Due to the already
established contacts of several
thousand enterprises of various
industries, it is primarily from
our country that greenfield FDI
can go to Ukraine. Based on our
logistics and organizational capital,
Ukraine and Europe will recreate
the supply and export chains
of goods from Ukraine, as is currently
happening with Ukrainian
grain. Just as it is difficult to
imagine a Polish labor market
without hundreds of thousands
of Ukrainians, when constructing
a set of qualifications for the new
Ukrainian economy, it will be
natural for Ukrainian enterprises
to use the qualifications and contacts
of Ukrainian citizens that
they have acquired in Poland. This
may also apply to the relocation
of business, which is now taking
place to the west of Ukraine
and to Poland, after the end of
the war, an attempt to return to
Ukraine will begin. Huge competences
in this matter are built
by Polish Ukrainian Chamber of
Commerce with its Business Relocation
Center.
Ukraine has been striving for
cooperation with European
countries in the field of energy
for years. It wants to replace the
current role of an intermediary
in the transmission of gas to
an exporter of electricity and ....
Hydrogen. Hydrogen is becoming
a heronetzero (hero of the zeroemission
economy) in the world,
because it perfectly solves the issue
of instability of renewables,
because it can be both a source
and a store of energy at any time.
In addition, which is also important
– due to the fact that it is
a molecule, it significantly reduces
the green economy's demand
for rare metals needed to produce
other types of renewables,
such as solar panels or EV batteries.
Ukrainian electricity (a total
of 55 GW) comes from 75% lowcarbon
sources (nuclear, water, renewables),
and the production of
green hydrogen could expand the
potential of Ukrainian and European
renewables.
Russia's war against Ukraine, on
the one hand, is a huge stress for
the Ukrainian energy sector: a lot
of destruction, a decrease in consumption
by over 50%, but it clearly
accelerates decision-making
both in the EU and in Ukraine as
to the forms of current and future
cooperation. In March this year,
the energy networks of Ukraine
and Moldova were synchronized
with the Continental European
grid, which opens up the prospect
of exporting Ukrainian electricity
to European markets, including
Poland. Several Polish entities are
already considering participation
in such a project: m.in ZE PAK,
controlled by Z. Solorz, and Orlen
Synthos Green Energy, owned
by PKN Orlen and Synthos M.
Sołowów. The implementation
of such a permanent connection
would require the reconstruction
of the line from Rzeszów to the
nuclear power plant in Khmelnytskyi.
PSE's preliminary estimates
of the costs of such an investment
amount to several hundred million
zlotys. It must therefore be
a project supported by both governments
and the EU.
In the case of hydrogen, it is
proposed to increase the existing
plans to build an electrolyser
market by 2030 – 40 GW in the
EU and 40 GW in neighboring
countries – to nearly 200 GW of
production capacity. Achieving
such a huge potential will be supported
by regulatory and financial
preferences.
According to the head of the
Ukrainian Hydrogen Council,
Oleksandr Riepkin, who also
serves as an economic advisor to
the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of
Ukraine, the Hydrogen Strategy
of Ukraine will be announced in
the coming weeks (it was planned
to be announced on 24.02.2022).
In May this year, an agreement on
cooperation with the European
Commission in the field of hydrogen
policy is to be concluded.
Marek Ziółkowski
From 1991 in diplomacy. He is dealing
with the Polish foreign policy
towards Eastern Europe and security
policy. He started his diplomatic
career in Belarus and was Polish
ambassador to Ukraine, Kenya and
NATO. 2016-2017 he used to be undersecretary
of State for eastern and
security policies.