A gap or a chasm? - National Police Library Online Catalogue

A gap or a chasm? Attrition in reported rape cases
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● Whilst this represents the largest data-set in the UK literature on rape and sexual
assault, there are some limitations to the study. It proved extremely difficult to
recruit research participants in the Comparison areas, so more is known about
complainants in areas where there is a SARC. Obtaining information on case
outcomes was also problematic in all areas, and there is only final outcome data
for two-thirds of the sample.
What we know about rape and attrition
● Findings from the 2001 British Crime Survey (BCS) interpersonal violence module
result in a prevalence rate of 0.3 per cent for rape of women over 16 in the year
prior to interviews conducted in 2001, and this equates to an estimated annual
incidence rate of 47,000 adult female victims of rape. Since the age of 16, 7 per
cent of women had suffered a serious sexual assault at least once in their lifetime
(5% had been raped). The same study confirms that women are most likely to be
raped by men they know, and a considerable pro p o rtion re p o rted re p e a t
incidents by the same perpetrator.
● These findings are lower than a previous BCS-based report, and much lower than
the prevalence rate in a dedicated study on rape from the early 1990s.
● Analysis of the St Mary ’s database (covering the years 1987-2002) re v e a l e d
i n c reasing numbers of young victims aged under 20, and supports the BCS
finding that assaults are most likely to be committed by known men.
● Home Office data on re p o rted rape cases in England and Wales show a continuing
and unbroken increase in re p o rting to the police over the past two decades, but a
relatively static number of convictions, thus the increasing justice gap.
● Prosecuted cases involving children were more likely to result in conviction than
those involving adults.
● All UK studies of attrition in rape cases concur that the highest proportion of cases
is lost at the earliest stages, with between half and two-thirds dropping out at the
investigative stage, and withdrawal by complainants one of the most important
elements.
● A number of studies have found high rates of ‘no criming’, not limited to the
official guidelines for this category.
● R e s e a rch to date has identified four key points at which attrition occurs: the
decision to report; the investigative stage; discontinuance by prosecutors; and the
trial. Victim withdrawals can occur at each stage but the highest pro p o rtion is
evident at the first two points.