October 2022 Full PDF final

COVER STORY
strategy in the war was marred by
poor planning coupled with worse
tactics, which is why, Russian army
was forced to withdraw from Kyiv in
March and Ukrainian army was able
to recapture a large area around
Kherson, Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk
from occupation forces. To
make matters worse, the Crimea
Bridge that connects the annexed
Crimean peninsula with mainland
Russia was partially blown up in
a dramatic explosion thought to
be orchestrated by Ukraine forces.
Russia accused Ukraine of attacking
the bridge in an act of terrorism
and retaliated immediately with
missile and drone strikes. The losses
have been huge, as it seems, on
the battlefronts in Ukraine. Russia
thereafter announced a partial mobilisation
of reservists and declared
martial law in the recently annexed
regions. Russia also warned of nuclear
options.
After faltering in the early days,
Russian commanders now realise
that they lack skills to win a
manoeuvre-style war. Accordingly,
they have changed the style of war
to ‘war of attrition.’ In such wars,
movement of troops and military
equipment is restricted. These are
deployed targeting certain areas so
that enemy can be completely destroyed.
It’s thus clear that Ukraine
seemingly fared better than Russia
in terms of military strategy despite
being much smaller as force.
Russia's military budget in 2022
is $4,580 crore, whereas Ukraine's
$470 crore. This implies that Russia’s
defence budget is 10 times
bigger than that of Ukraine’s. Despite
its enormous difference in
defence budget and force size,
there’re a number of apparent miscalculations
that actually made
Russia seemingly unsuccessful.
THE WAR MISCALCULATIONS
Previous instances blatantly show that geopolitical arrogance has fatally accelerated political stupidity and it’s
been proven again and again starting from the ancient Greek and Roman empires to the invasions of the French,
German and British powers of recent history. Putin's arrogance can be blamed for the failure to achieve the Kremlin's
dream of a quick victory when the tide turned against Russia in the Ukraine war. Experts of international
relations thought of five fatal mistakes behind this:
First mistake
President Putin overestimated the military's readiness for a protracted war. Along with that, he has
wrongly considered the desire of the citizens to establish the Russian Empire. Against a backward but
determined enemy, Russia is now paying a heavy price and is also in a humiliating situation in the conflict.
Russian soldiers are deserting their units. Russian men also began to flee after citizens were urged to join
the war. On the other hand, Ukrainians are willingly fighting and sacrificing themselves for the country.
Protesters chanting slogans against Russian President Vladimir Putin
Fifth mistake
Putin assumed the United States was now in total decline, bogged down by mistakes in Afghanistan
and Iraq, economic and domestic problems, and the rise of China. Due to which Washington will not
react much to the Ukraine crisis. He was wrong again. The US has used Russia's Ukraine campaign as
an opportunity to mobilize Western power against Moscow and cripple Russia's economy.
THE RETURN OF NUCLEAR THREAT
Second mistake
Putin's second assumption was that Kyiv would capitulate within days of the attack. He made the same
mistake as other imperialists. He belittled the Ukrainians' resistance to occupation and their commitment
to freedom. Ukrainian patriotism has been awakened in a way never seen before and it has been fully
aided by Western support.
Third mistake
Another estimate that Putin likely made is that the West would not come to the aid of Ukraine, since the
West did not react much to the 2008 invasion of Georgia or the 2014 annexation of Crimea. He might have
thought that NATO is now weakened due to Donald Trump's 'America First' policy on Western security.
But the reality is, over the course of time since the war began, weapons continue to flow into Ukraine from
western allies.
Fourth mistake
Putin also believed that Europe's dependence on Russian oil and gas would make it difficult for them to
break ties with Moscow over the Ukraine issue. Here too he was proved wrong. Europe's rejection of a bold
and aggressive Russia and US assertiveness have brought the two sides of the Atlantic closer together.
With more than 6,300 nuclear
warheads, Russia has the world’s
largest nuke arsenal. President
Putin therefore said, "If the territorial
integrity of our country
is threatened, we will, of course,
use all means at our disposal to
protect Russia and our people.
This is not a bluff." Putin added.
"And those who try to blackmail
us with nuclear weapons should
know that the weather vane can
turn and point at them."
Many have interpreted Putin's
statement as a threat to use nuclear
weapons. Wolfgang Richter,
a senior research associate for international
security with the German
Institute for International
and Security Affairs (SWP), thinks
that the idea behind this is probably
a message to Western states,
which is, if you interfere in the war
or attack Russian territory, then a
nuclear strike becomes more likely.
In response, US President Joe
Biden vehemently warned Putin
against using nuclear or chemical
weapons. "Don't do it!" Biden
said. "It would change the face of
war like nothing else since World
War II." US Senator Lindsey Graham
declared that any nuclear attack
on Ukraine by Russia would
be equivalent to a nuclear attack
on NATO itself that would produce
an overwhelming and catastrophic
reply.
However, Wolfgang Richter thinks
that the nuclear war is unlikely.
It is because if Russia breaks the
nuclear taboo that has existed
since 1945, he said, the country
would also be isolated and ostracised
throughout the world and
would lose all allies that would
have incalculable consequences
for the political, economic, and
social survival of Russian Federation.
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