THAILAND'S MOMENT OF TRUTH - ZENJOURNALIST
THAILAND'S MOMENT OF TRUTH - ZENJOURNALIST
THAILAND'S MOMENT OF TRUTH - ZENJOURNALIST
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I. “A WATERSHED EVENT IN THAI HISTORY”<br />
One inescapable and traumatizing fact haunts 21st century Thailand, and not even the country's most<br />
potent myths have the power to tame it: Bhumibol Adulyadej, the beloved Rama IX, is approaching the<br />
end of his life. Frail and hospitalized, he is already just a shadow of his former self.<br />
His designated successor, Crown Prince Maha Chakri Vajiralongkorn, is widely despised and feared.<br />
Whether or not the prince becomes Rama X, the royal succession will be a time of profound national<br />
anxiety and uncertainty far more shattering and painful even than the tragic events of the past five years<br />
of worsening social and political conflict.<br />
The looming change in monarch and the prolonged political crisis gripping Thailand are - of course -<br />
inextricably intertwined. A large number of parallel conflicts are being fought at all levels of Thai society,<br />
in the knowledge that Bhumibol's death will be a game-changing event that will fundamentally alter<br />
longstanding power relationships among key individuals and institutions, and may also totally rewrite the<br />
rules of the game. Ahead of the succession, the leading players are fighting to position themselves for of<br />
the inevitable paradigm shift.<br />
Professor Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at<br />
Chulalongkorn University's faculty of political science, describes the crisis beautifully in Thailand Since<br />
the Coup, published in the Journal of Democracy in 2008:<br />
The setting sun of the King’s long reign is the background against which the battle of attrition for<br />
Thailand’s soul is taking place. In this twilight struggle are locked opposing webs of partisans and<br />
vested interests both for and against what Thaksin has done to Thailand. The old establishment<br />
confronts the popular demands and expectations that the age of globalization has wrought, and<br />
strains to find ways to render the new voices irrelevant.<br />
- - - - -<br />
When very important U.S. officials come to town, American ambassadors around the world prepare<br />
for them a confidential "scenesetter", a concise briefing to read during their flight, about the country in<br />
which they are about to arrive. In July 2009, it was the task of Eric G. John, the American ambassador in<br />
Bangkok and a former deputy assistant secretary of state for Southeast Asia, to write a scenesetter for a<br />
particularly important visitor: his boss, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the woman in charge of<br />
the foreign policy of the most powerful nation in the world.<br />
Here is what he wrote about the "troubled kingdom" of Thailand in cable<br />
09BANGKOK1662, "THAILAND SCENESETTER FOR SECRETARY CLINTON'S JULY 21-23<br />
VISIT":<br />
Madam Secretary: You will arrive July 21 in a Kingdom of Thailand divided politically and<br />
focused inward, uncertain about the country's future after revered but ailing 81 year old King