Risk-Informed Approach to Penstock Safety - Pat Regan

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Consequences Considered � Pipe replacement � Geotechnical stabilization � Damage to powerhouse � Damage to switchyard/transmission facilities � Lost generation � Property damage � Environmental damage
Name A1 A2 A3 Cost Spreadsheet C1 - Pipe Replacement C2 - Geotechnical C3 - Powerhouse Cmin Cexp Cmax Std Dev. Cstoch1 Cmin Cexp Cmax Cstoch2 Pstrike Cmin Cexp Cmax Cstoch3 908 2214 3820 221 2210 2500 5000 15000 5438 1.00 0 5000 10000 3675 962 1202 1442 120 1194 2500 5000 15000 5323 1.00 0 500 1000 365 561 962 1442 96 964 2500 5000 15000 5283 1.00 0 250 500 187 C4 - Switchyard/Transmission C5 - Lost Generation C6 - Property Damage Cmin Cexp Cmax Cstoch4 Cmin Cexp Cmax Cstoch5 Cmin Cexp Cmax Cstoch6 2700 5400 16200 5739 1,219 2,439 7,316 2534 2000 4000 12000 4274 2700 5400 16200 5666 114 227 682 242 2000 4000 12000 4237 2700 5400 16200 5754 93 187 560 197 2000 4000 12000 4237 C7 - Environment Total Break Cost Cmin Cexp Cmax Cstoch7 CTmin CTstoch CTmax 4000 8000 24000 8520 32,390 400 800 2400 857 17,885 200 400 1200 429 17,051 Costs in $1,000s
Page 1 and 2: Risk-Informed Approach to Penstock
Page 3 and 4: FERC Database � Geotechnical Issu
Page 5 and 6: FERC Penstock Data ARO CRO NYRO PRO
Page 7 and 8: Photo - Caribou PH
Page 9 and 10: Photo - Vacuum - Equipment Failure
Page 11 and 12: Photo - Lapino
Page 13 and 14: Photo - Oak Grove Flowline Patch an
Page 15 and 16: Aging/Deterioration � Lack of Mai
Page 17 and 18: Photo - Wood Stave Soaker Hose - Ma
Page 19 and 20: Photo - Forged Weld Material Degrad
Page 21 and 22: Photo - Balch PH Crack Due To Stres
Page 23 and 24: Photo - Big Creek Collapsed Crib
Page 25 and 26: Photo - Big Creek - Cracked Saddle
Page 27 and 28: Flood � Photo of Power Creek Buck
Page 29 and 30: � Reconstruction � Penstock �
Page 31 and 32: Risk-Informed Approach to Penstock
Page 33 and 34: R&D Program � Establishment of pe
Page 35 and 36: Risk Assessment Methodology � Foc
Page 37: � Geotechnical � Hydrologic �
Page 41 and 42: Typical probability density functio
Page 43 and 44: Rank Facility Critical Hazard Top 1
Page 45 and 46: Consequences of Penstock Failure
Page 47 and 48: Things to Consider � Appropriate
Page 49 and 50: Key Inspection Items � Geotechnic
Page 51 and 52: Risk Reduction
Page 53 and 54: Risk Reduction � Tinizong Powerho
Page 55 and 56: Risk Reduction � Biasca TSV Chamb
Page 57 and 58: Caribou 2 Penstock Caribou 2 PH Car
Page 59: Thoughts � Risk can help you make

Risk-Informed Approach to Penstock Safety - Pat Regan

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