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ports in g/Etudes et rapports d'hydrologie 16<br />
<strong>of</strong><br />
resources projects<br />
<strong>with</strong> inadequate data<br />
Proceedings <strong>of</strong> the Madrid Symposium<br />
,June 1973<br />
Elaboration des projets<br />
d'utilisation des ressources en eau<br />
c dans données suffisantes<br />
Volume I<br />
Unesco - MIMO - 1AHS<br />
Unesco - OMM - AISH<br />
_-<br />
Actes du colloque de Madrid<br />
Juin I973
Studies and reports in hydrology/Études et rapports d’hydrologie 16
TITLES IN THIS SERIES / DANS CETTE COLLECTION<br />
1. The use <strong>of</strong> analog and digital computers in hydrology: Proceedings <strong>of</strong> the Tucson Symposium.<br />
June 1966 1 L'utilisation des calculatrices analogiques et des ordinateurs en hydrologie: Actes du<br />
colloque de Tucson, juin 1966. Vol. I & 2. Co-edition IAHS-Unesco / Coédition AISH-Unesco.<br />
2.<br />
<strong>Water</strong> in the unsaturated zone: Proceedings <strong>of</strong> the Wageningen Symposium, June 1967 1 L'eau dans<br />
la zone non saturée: Actes du symposium de Wageningen, juin 1967. Edited by 1 edité par P. E.<br />
Rijtema & H. Wassink. Vol. 1 & 2. Co-edition IAHS-Unesco 1 Coédition AISH-Unesco.<br />
3. Floods and their computation: Proceedings <strong>of</strong> the Leningrad Symposium, August 1967 / Les crues<br />
et leur évaluation: Actes du colloque de Leningrad, août 1967. Vol. 1 & 2. Co-edition IAHS-Unesco-<br />
WMO 1 Coédition AISH-Unesco-OMM.<br />
4. Representative and experimental basins: An international guide for research and practice. Edited<br />
by C. Toebes and V. Ouryvaev. Ptrblished by Unesco.<br />
4. Les bassins représentatifs et expérimentaux: Guide international des pratiques en matikre de recherche.<br />
Publié sous la direction de C. Toebes et V. Ouryvaey. Publié par l'Unesco.<br />
5. 'Discharge <strong>of</strong> selected rivers <strong>of</strong> the world 1 Débit de certain cours d'eau du monde. Published by<br />
Unesco 1 Publié par l'Unesco.<br />
Vol. I : General and régime characteristics <strong>of</strong> stations selected / Caractéristiques générales et<br />
caractéristiques du régime des stations choisies.<br />
Vol. II: Monthly and annual discharges recorded at various selected stations (from start <strong>of</strong> obser.<br />
vations up to 1964) / Débits mensuels et annuels enregistrés en diverses stations sélectionnées<br />
(de l'origine des observations à l'année 1964).<br />
'Vol. III: Mean monthly and extreme discharges (1965-1969) I Débits mensuels moyens et débits<br />
extrêmes (1965-1969).<br />
6. List <strong>of</strong> International Hydrological Decade Stations <strong>of</strong> the world 1 Liste des stations de la Décennie<br />
h'ydrologique internationale existant dans le monde. Published by Unesco 1 Publié par l'Unesco.<br />
7. Ground-water studies: An international guide for practice. Edited by R. Brown, J. Ineson, V. Konoplyantsev<br />
and V. Kovalevski. (Will also appear in French, Russian and Spanish 1 Paraitra<br />
également en espagnol, en français et en russe.)<br />
8. Land subsidence: Proceedings <strong>of</strong> the To'kyo Symposium, September 1969 1 Affaisement du sol:<br />
Actes du colloque de Tokyo, septembre 1969. 'Vol. 1 & 2. Co-edition IAHS-Unesco / Coédition<br />
AISH-Unesco.<br />
9. <strong>Hydrology</strong> <strong>of</strong> deltas: Proceedings <strong>of</strong> the Bucharest Symposium, May 1969 1 Hydrologie des deltas:<br />
Actes du colloque de Bucarest, mai 1969. Vol. 1 & 2. Co-edifion IAHS-Unesco I Coédition AISH-<br />
Unesco.<br />
10. Status and trends <strong>of</strong> research in hydrology 1 Bilan et tendances de la recherche en hydrologie.<br />
Published by Unesco 1 Publié par l'Unesco.<br />
11. World water balance: Proceedings <strong>of</strong> the Reading Symposium, July 1970 1 Bilan hydrique mondial:<br />
Actes du colloque de Reading, juillet 1970. Vol. 1-3. Co-edition IAHS-Unesco-WMO / Coédition<br />
AISH-Unesco-OMM.<br />
12. Results OF research on representative and experimental basins: Proceedings <strong>of</strong> the Wellington<br />
Symposium, December 1970 1 Résultats de recherches sur les bassins représentatifs et expérimen-<br />
taux: Actes du cowoque de Wellington, décembre 1970. 'Vol. 1 & 2. Coedition IAHS-Unesco 1<br />
Coédition AISH-Unesco.<br />
13. Hydrometry: Proceedings <strong>of</strong> the Koblenz Symposium, September 1970 1 Hydrométrie: Actes du<br />
colloque de Coblence, septembre 1970. Co-edition IAHS-Unesco-WMO 1 Coédition AISH-Unesco-<br />
OMM.<br />
14. Hydrologic information systems. Co-edition Unesco-WMO.<br />
15. Mathematical models in hydrology: Proceedings <strong>of</strong> the Warsaw Symposium, July 1971 1 Les mo-<br />
dèles mathématiques en hydrologie: Actes du colloque de Varsovie, juillet 1971. Vol. 1-3. Co-<br />
edition IAHS-Unesco-WMO / Coédition AISH-Unesco-OMM.<br />
16. <strong>Design</strong> <strong>of</strong> water resources projects <strong>with</strong> inadequate data: Proceedings <strong>of</strong> the Madrid symposium,<br />
June 1973 1 filaboration des projets d'utilisation des ressources en eau sans données suffisantes:<br />
Actes du colloque de Madrid, juin 1973. Vol. 1-3. Co-edition Unesco-WMO-IAHS / Coédition Unesco-<br />
OMM-AISH.
qesign <strong>of</strong><br />
water resources projects<br />
<strong>with</strong> inadequate data :<br />
Proceeúings <strong>of</strong> the Madrid Symposium<br />
.lune 1973<br />
Elaboration des projets<br />
d’utilisation des ressources en eau<br />
sans données suffisantes<br />
A contribution to the Iniernaiional Hydrological Decade<br />
Une contribution a la Décennie hydrologique internationale<br />
Con resurnenes en espano1<br />
Volume I<br />
Actes du colloque de Moúrid<br />
.luin 1973<br />
Unesco - WMO - LAHS 1974<br />
Unesco - OMM - AISH
Published jointly by<br />
the United Nations Educational, Scientific<br />
and Cultural Organization,<br />
7, Place de Fontenoy, 75700 Paris,<br />
World Meteorological Organization,<br />
41 av. Giuseppe-Motta, Geneva, and<br />
the International Association <strong>of</strong> Hydrological Sciences (President: J.-A. Rodier),<br />
19, rue Eugène-Carrière, 75018 Paris<br />
Publié conjointement par<br />
l’Organisation des Nations Unies pour<br />
l’éducation, la science et la culture,<br />
7, place de Fontenoy, 75700 Paris,<br />
l’organisation météorologique mondiale,<br />
41, av. Giuseppe-Motta, Genève, et<br />
l’Association internationale des sciences hydrologiques (président: J.-A. Rodier).<br />
19, rue Eugène-Carrière, 75018 Paris<br />
Impreso por el Centro de Estudios Hidrográficos, Madrid<br />
. PLJ[,dv: ’<br />
-.. __<br />
The selection and presentation <strong>of</strong> material and the opinions expressed in this publication<br />
are the responsibility <strong>of</strong> the authors concerned and do not necessarily reflect the<br />
views <strong>of</strong> the publishers.<br />
The designations employed and the presentation <strong>of</strong> the material do not imply the<br />
expression <strong>of</strong> any opinion whatsoever on the part <strong>of</strong> the publishers concerning the legal<br />
status <strong>of</strong> any country or territory, or <strong>of</strong> its authorities, or concerning the frontiers<br />
<strong>of</strong> any country or territory.<br />
Le choix et la présentation du contenu de cet ouvrage et les opinions qui s’y<br />
expriment n’engagent que ia responsabilité des auteurs et ne correspondent pas<br />
nécessairement aux vues des éditeurs.<br />
Les dénominations employées et la présentation des divers éléments n’impliquent<br />
de la part des éditeurs aucune prise de position à l’égard du statut juridique de l’un<br />
quelconque des pays et territoires en cause, de son régime politique ou du tracé<br />
de ses frontières.<br />
ISBN 92-3401137-1<br />
0 UnescuWMO-IAHS-1974<br />
Printed in Spain
PkEFACE<br />
The International Hydrological Decade (IHD) 1965-74 was launched by<br />
the General Conference <strong>of</strong> Unesco at its thirteenth session to promote<br />
international co-operation in research and studies and the training <strong>of</strong> spe-<br />
cialists and technicians in scientific hydrology. Its purpose is to enable<br />
all countries to make a fuller assessment <strong>of</strong> their water resources and a<br />
more rational use <strong>of</strong> them as man’s demands for water constantly increase<br />
in face <strong>of</strong> developments in population, industry and agriculture. In 1974<br />
National Committees for the Decade had been formed in 108 <strong>of</strong> Unesco’s<br />
131 Member States to carry out national activities <strong>with</strong>in the programme<br />
<strong>of</strong> the Decade. The implementation <strong>of</strong> the programme is supervised by a<br />
Co-ordinating Council, composed <strong>of</strong> 30 Member States selected by the Ge-<br />
neral Conference <strong>of</strong> Unesco, which studies proposals for. developments<br />
<strong>of</strong> the programme, recommends projects <strong>of</strong> interest to all or a large<br />
number <strong>of</strong> countries, assists in the development <strong>of</strong> national and regional<br />
projects and co-ordinates international co-operation.<br />
Promotion <strong>of</strong> collaboration in developing hydrological research techni-<br />
ques, diffusing hydrological data and planning hydrological installations<br />
is a major feature <strong>of</strong> the programme <strong>of</strong> the IHD which encompasses all<br />
aspects <strong>of</strong> hydrological studies and research. Hydrological investigations<br />
are encouraged at the national, regional and international level to streng-<br />
then and to improve the use <strong>of</strong> natural resources from a local and a global<br />
perspective. The programme provides a means for countries well advanced<br />
in hydrological research to exchange scientific views and for developing<br />
countries to benefit from this exchange <strong>of</strong> information in elaborating re-<br />
search projects and in implementing recent developments in the planning<br />
<strong>of</strong> hydrological installations.<br />
As part <strong>of</strong> Unesco’s contribution to the achievement <strong>of</strong> the objectives<br />
<strong>of</strong> the IHD the General Conference authorized the Director-General to<br />
collect, exchange and disseminate information concerning research on<br />
scientific hydrology and to facilitate contacts between research workers<br />
in this field. To this end Unesco initiated two series <strong>of</strong> publications: Studies<br />
and Reports in <strong>Hydrology</strong> and Technical Papers in <strong>Hydrology</strong>.<br />
The Studies and Reports in <strong>Hydrology</strong> series, in which the present<br />
volume is published, is aimed at recording data collected and the main<br />
results <strong>of</strong> hydrwlogical studies undertaken <strong>with</strong>in the framework <strong>of</strong> the<br />
Decade, as well as providing information on research techniques. Also<br />
included in the series are proceedings <strong>of</strong> symposia. Thus, the series com-<br />
prises the compilation <strong>of</strong> data, discussions <strong>of</strong> hydrological research techni-<br />
ques and findings, and guidance material for future scientific investigations.<br />
It is hoped that the volumes wil furnish material <strong>of</strong> both practical and<br />
theoretical interest to hydrologists and governments participating in the<br />
IHD and respond to the needs <strong>of</strong> technicians and scientists concerned<br />
<strong>with</strong> problems <strong>of</strong> water in all countries.<br />
A number <strong>of</strong> these volumes have been published jointly <strong>with</strong> the In-<br />
ternational Association <strong>of</strong> Hydrological Sciences and the World Meteoro-<br />
logical Organization which have co-operated <strong>with</strong> Unesco in the imple-<br />
mentation <strong>of</strong> several important projects <strong>of</strong> the IHD.
PRBFACE<br />
La Conférence générale de l’Unesco, à sa treizième session, a décidé<br />
de lancer, pour la période s’étendant de 1965 à 1974, la Décennie hydrologique<br />
internationale (DHI), entreprise<br />
e<br />
mondiale visant a faire progresser la connaissance<br />
en matiere ci’ vdrologie scientifique par un développement de<br />
la coopération inyrnati nale et par la formation de spécialistes et de<br />
techniciens. Au moment oìi l’expansion démographique et le développement<br />
industriel et agricole provoquent un accroissement constant des besoins<br />
en eau, la DHI permet à tous les pays de mieux évaluer leurs ressources<br />
hydrauliques et de les exploiter plus rationnellement.<br />
I1 existe actuellement dans 108 des 131 Etats membres de l’Unesco un<br />
comité national qui, pour tout ce qui a tratit au programme de la Décennie,<br />
impulse les activités nationales et assure la participation de son pays<br />
aux entreprises régionales et internationales. L’exécution du programme<br />
de la DHI se fait sous la direction d’un Conseil de coordination composé<br />
de 30 Etats membres désignés par la Conférence générale de l’Unesco; ce<br />
conseil étudie les propositions concernant le programme, recommande<br />
l’adoption de projets intéressant l’ensemble des pays ou un grand nombre<br />
d’entre eux, aide à la mise sur pied de projets nationaux et régionaux, et<br />
coordonne la coopération à l’échelon international.<br />
Le programme de la DHI, qui porte sur tous les aspects des études et<br />
des recherches hydrologiques, vise essentiellement à développer la collaboration<br />
dans la mise au point des techniques de recherches, dans la<br />
diffusion des données hydrologiques, dans l’organisation des installations<br />
hydrologiques. I1 encourage les enquêtes nationales, régionales et internationales<br />
tendant à accroître et à améliorer l‘utilisation des resources naturelles,<br />
dans une perspective locale et générale. Il permet aux pays avancés<br />
en matière de recherches hydrologiques d’échanger des informations; aux<br />
pays en voie de développement, il <strong>of</strong>fre la possibilité de pr<strong>of</strong>iter de ces<br />
échanges pour élaborer leurs projets de recherches et pour planifier leurs<br />
installations hydrologiques en tirant parti des acquisitions les plus récentes<br />
de l’hydrologie scientifique.<br />
Pour permettre a l’Unesco de contribuer au succès de la DHI, la Conférence<br />
générale a autorisé le Directeur générale à rassembler, à échanger<br />
et à diffuser des informations sur les recherches d’hydrologie scientifique<br />
et à faciliter les contacts entre les chercheurs dans ce domaine. A cette<br />
fin, l’Unesco fait paraître deux nouvelles collections de publications: «Etudes<br />
et rapports d’hydrologie» et «Notes techniques d’hydrologie,.<br />
La collection «Etudes et rapports d’hydrologie,, dans laquelle est publié<br />
le présent ouvrage, a pour objet de présenter les données recueillies et les<br />
principaux résultats des études effectuées dans le cadre de la Décennie<br />
et de fournir des informations sur les techniques de recherche. On y trouve<br />
aussi les Actes de colloques réunis sur ce sujet. Cette collection publie<br />
donc des données, des techniques et des résultats de recherches ainsi<br />
qu’une documentation pour les travaux scientifiques futurs.<br />
On espère que ces volumes apporteront aux hydrologues et aux gouvernements<br />
qui participent à ,la DHI des matériaux d’un intérêt tant pra-
tique que théorique, et qu’elle répondra aux besoins des techniciens et<br />
des hommes de science de tous pays qui s’occupent des problèmes de l’eau.<br />
Certains de ces ouvrages sont publibs en coopération avec l’Association<br />
internationale des sciences hydrologiques ou l’organisation météorologique<br />
mondiale dans le cadre de projets réalisés conjointement par ces orga-<br />
nisations et l’Unesco.
INTRODUCTION<br />
The Symposium on the Development <strong>of</strong> <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> <strong>Projects</strong> <strong>with</strong><br />
<strong>Inadequate</strong> Data was held in Madrid from 4 to 8 June 1973 for the purpose<br />
<strong>of</strong> focusing on the methodology for hydrologic studies for water resources<br />
projects <strong>with</strong> inadequate data and on current practices for the assessment<br />
<strong>of</strong> design parameters.<br />
The Symposium was opened at the Palacio de Exposiciones on the<br />
morning <strong>of</strong> 4 June by Miniester <strong>of</strong> Public Workes <strong>of</strong> Spain Addresses were<br />
then given by Dr. Dumitrescu on behalf <strong>of</strong> the Director General <strong>of</strong> Unesco,<br />
Pr<strong>of</strong>essor Nevmec on behalf <strong>of</strong> the Secretary-General <strong>of</strong> WMO, Dr. Rodier<br />
as President <strong>of</strong> IAHS and by Dr. Briones, on behalf <strong>of</strong> the Spanish Na-<br />
tional Committee for the IHD.<br />
The Symposium was attended by 480 participants from 77 countries.<br />
The technical programme, detaimled in the Table <strong>of</strong> Contents, included<br />
consideration <strong>of</strong> 3 major areas:<br />
1. Methodology for hydrological studies <strong>with</strong> inadequate data,<br />
2. Current practices in different countries,<br />
3. Relation between project economics and hydrological data.<br />
Each area was further sub-divided into topics for each <strong>of</strong> which the<br />
individually contributed papers were abstracted into a general report, orally<br />
presented by an invited expert, and followed by discussion.<br />
Since the individual papers were not presented at the Symposium orally<br />
by the authors, thery are reproduced here in the orden in which<br />
they were reported in each general report under each topic.
üesip d water reswrcee projects <strong>with</strong> inadequate dati: Pmeeedin.p d the Madrid 8ympoilUm.<br />
June i973 / Blabontion de# projeu d‘utilhition des ressourcci en eau rans domdes nuttlrantei:<br />
Acui du mlloque de Madrid, juin 1973.<br />
Volume I Contents Table des matieres<br />
Foreword/Avant-propos<br />
TOPIC 1.1 . TRANSFER OF INFORMATION FROM OBSERVED POINTS TO<br />
POINTS OF INTEREST, ESPECIALLY FOR THE ASSESSMENT<br />
OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF DISCHARGES.<br />
POINT 1.1 - EXTRAPOLATION DES INFORMATIONS RECUEILLIES AUX<br />
POINTS OBSERVES A DES POINTS PRESENTANT UN INTE-<br />
RET PARTICULIER, NOTAMMENT POUR L’EVALUATION<br />
DES DEBITS CARACTERISTIQUES.<br />
SOKOLOV, A.A. (U.S.S.R.) GENERAL REPORT<br />
ALBINET, M., CASTANY, G., DELAROZIERE-BOUILLIN, O., JONAT, R.,<br />
MARGAT, J. (FRANCE)<br />
Evaluation et répartition des ressources en e au d’une grande région par<br />
les paramétres hydroclimatiques et hydrog6ologiques ...............<br />
BALEK, J. (CZECHOSLOVAKIA)<br />
Use <strong>of</strong> representative and experimental catchments for the assement <strong>of</strong><br />
hydrological data <strong>of</strong> African tropical basins .......................<br />
CORMARY, Y - J.M. MASSON. (FRANCE)<br />
Diverses méthodes convergentes pour l’utihtion de l’information a<br />
I’écheUedgionale .......................................<br />
DUBREUIL, PIERRE. (FRANCE)<br />
Le transfert d’infomtion hydrologique a des bassins versants non obser-<br />
vés ....................................................<br />
GARCIA-AGREDA, R., RASULO, G., VIPARELLI, R. (ITALY)<br />
Pluviometric zones and the criteria to define their boundaries for regions<br />
<strong>with</strong>scarcedata ............................................<br />
OBERLIN, G.R., GALEA, G.C., TONI, J.T. (FRANCE)<br />
Estimation des étiages de bassins non equipés ....................<br />
TIERCELIN, J.R. (FRANCE)<br />
ParamBtres régionaux relatifs aux ressources en eau. Utilisation. PdciPion<br />
d’estimation ............................................... 125<br />
VAN HYLCKAMA, T.E.A. (U.S.A.)<br />
Estimating evapotranspiration by homoclimates ................ 74<br />
1<br />
15<br />
27<br />
47<br />
61<br />
89<br />
103
VOSKRESENSKI, K.P. (U.S.S.R.)<br />
Prinoiph for the computation <strong>of</strong> tho nuin Ohinctdutb <strong>of</strong> river wrtm<br />
reaowcea in the abuncl <strong>of</strong> oburvrtiona on the bu& <strong>of</strong> goographid<br />
interpoiation <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f puameten ..............................<br />
VUGLLNSKI, V.S., SEMENOV, V.A. (U.S.S.R.)<br />
Evaiurtion <strong>of</strong> water IWOIUWW <strong>of</strong> mounîdn am11 in cani <strong>of</strong> rhnce or<br />
inadequacy <strong>of</strong> datr on run<strong>of</strong>f ..................................<br />
TOPIC 1.2 - THE IMPROVEMENT OF OVERALL HYDR0UX;IC INFOR-<br />
MATION BY SHORT-TERM ADDITIONAL AND PARTICULAR<br />
OBSERVATIONS AND MEASUREMENTS. INCLUDING THE<br />
PLANNING OF THE ADDITIONAL MEASUREMENT CAM-<br />
PAIGN USING HYDROLOGIC DATA SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS<br />
BASED ON PROJECT ECONOMICS.<br />
POINT 1.2 - AMELIORATION DE L'ENSEMBLE DE L'INFORMATION<br />
HYDROLOGIQUE AU MOYEN DE COURTES CAMPAGNES DE<br />
MESURES COMPLEMENTAIRES ET D'OBSERVATIONS PARTI-<br />
CULIERES, COMPRENANT LA MISE EN OEUVRE DE CAM-<br />
PAGNES DE MESURES ADDITIONNELLES UTILISANT UNE<br />
ANALYSE DE SENSIBILITE DES DONNEES BASEE SUR<br />
L'ECONOMIE DES PROJETS.<br />
RODDA, JOHN (U.K.) GENERAL REPORT<br />
BEARD, LEO R. (U.S.A.)<br />
Hydrological data fiii-in and network design ..................<br />
DELHOMME, J.P., DELFINER, P. (FRANCE)<br />
Application du Krigeage a l'optimisation d'une campagne pluviométrique<br />
enzonearide ..............................................<br />
HALASI-KUN, GEORGE, J. (U.S.A.)<br />
Improvement <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f records in smaller watersheds based on permeabi-<br />
lity <strong>of</strong> the geological subsurface ...............................<br />
KOVACS, GEORGE. MOLNAR, GEORGE. (HUNGARY)<br />
Determination <strong>of</strong> snow water equivalent and snowmelt water by<br />
thickness <strong>of</strong> snow cover data .................................<br />
MEIJERINK, A.M.J. (NETHERLANDS)<br />
Evaluation <strong>of</strong> local water resources in semiarid hard rock region by using<br />
photo.hydrological indices ....................................<br />
PANT,P.S.,GUPTA, M.G. (INDIA)<br />
Application <strong>of</strong> satellite cloud pictures in snow hydrology <strong>of</strong> the Himalayas<br />
and in the estimation <strong>of</strong> rainfall over India during southwest<br />
monsoonseason ............................................<br />
137<br />
145<br />
153<br />
161<br />
17<br />
191<br />
205<br />
217<br />
233
I<br />
TOPIC I.3A - THE USE OF SIMULATION TECHNIQUES ESPECIALLY DE-<br />
SIGNED FOR DATA-SCARCE AREAS. STATISTICAL ME-<br />
THODS AND DATA OPERATION.<br />
POINT I.3A - UTILISATION DES TECHNIQUES DE SIMULATION SPE-<br />
CIALEMENT EWIBOREE POUR DES REGIONS OU LES<br />
DONNEES SONT RARES. METHODES STATISTIQUES ET<br />
TRAITEMENT DES DONNEES.<br />
JAMES, IVAN CHARLES. (U.S.A.) GENERAL REPORT<br />
CORMARY, Y . GUILBOT, A. (FRANCE)<br />
Etude des relations pluie-débit sur trois bassins versants d’investigation . .<br />
CHARANIA, S.H. (KENYA)<br />
Extension <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f records for small catchments in semi-arid regions ...<br />
DAVYDOVA,A.I., KALININ, G.P. (U.S.S.R.)<br />
Simulation <strong>of</strong> hydrological samples by natural water flow characteristics<br />
HAMLIN, M.J., KOTTEGODA, N.T. (U.K.)<br />
The preparation <strong>of</strong> a data set for hydrologic system analysis ..........<br />
LENTON, ROBERTO L., SCHAAKE JR., JOHN C., RODRIGUEZ-ITURBE, IG-<br />
NACIO. (U.S.A.)<br />
Potential application <strong>of</strong> Bayesian techniques for parameter estimation<br />
<strong>with</strong>limiteddata ...........................................<br />
McMAHON, T.A., MEIN, R.G. (AUSTRALIA)<br />
Storage-yield estimates <strong>with</strong> inadequate streamflow data .............<br />
MARTIN JADRAQUE, VALENTIN. (SPAIN)<br />
Estimation <strong>of</strong> Gumbel law parameters in small samples ..............<br />
MOSS, M.E.. DAWDY, D.R. (U.S.A.)<br />
Stochastic simulation for basins <strong>with</strong> short or no records <strong>of</strong> streamflow<br />
O’CONNELL, P.E., WALLIS, J.R. (U.S.A.)<br />
Choice <strong>of</strong> generating mechanism in synthetic hydrology <strong>with</strong> inadequate<br />
data .....................................................<br />
PORRAS, PEDRO., FLORES, ALFREDO. (VENEZUELA)<br />
Stochastic application in ungauged basins for planning purposes .......<br />
ROCHE, MARCEL. (FRANCE)<br />
Homogdnbisation et interpolation des donndes pour un modèle de simula-<br />
tion .....................................................<br />
SHARMA, H.D., BHATTACHARYA, A.P., JINDAL, S.R. (INDIA)<br />
The use <strong>of</strong> simulation techniques for sequential generation <strong>of</strong> short-sized<br />
rainfall data and its application in the estimation <strong>of</strong> design flood ......<br />
241<br />
265<br />
281<br />
293<br />
305<br />
321<br />
335<br />
349<br />
365<br />
311<br />
355<br />
407<br />
419
VISSER, J.H. (LEBANON)<br />
The we <strong>of</strong> rtochutlc mod& in hydroJgricultu<strong>nl</strong> dwdopmrnt projoct<br />
Libbanon ................................................<br />
WALLIS, J.R., MATALAS, N.C. (U.S.A.)<br />
Rehtivr importuice <strong>of</strong> decidon vuirbiem in fiood frequency uulydi ...<br />
WEISS, G. (U.K.)<br />
Shot nohe models for aynthetic generation <strong>of</strong> multimite M y munflow<br />
data .....................................................<br />
WOOD, ERIC F. (U.S.A.)<br />
Flood control ddgn <strong>with</strong> Limited data . A comparinon <strong>of</strong> the chsical<br />
andBayesianapproaches .....................................<br />
TOPIC 1.3B . THE USE OF SIMULATION TECHNIQUES ESPECIALLY DE-<br />
SIGNED FOR DATA-SCARCE AREAS. THE USE OF MATHE-<br />
MATICAL MODELS.<br />
POINT I.3B - UTILISATION DES TECHNIQUES DE SIMULATION SPE-<br />
CIALEMENT ELABOFSE POUR DES REGIONS OU LES<br />
DONNEES SONT RARES. UTILISATION DES MODELES MA-<br />
THEMATIQUES.<br />
NASH, J.E. (IRELAND) GENERAL REPORT<br />
BERNIER, J. (FRANCE)<br />
Données inadéquates et modeles mathématiques de la pollution en riviere<br />
COOK, SAMUEL P., MBURU, SAMUEL G. (KENYA)<br />
Regional groundwater recharge estimates via meteorological data ......<br />
DELLEUR, J.W., LEE, M.T. (U.S.A.)<br />
A rainfall-run<strong>of</strong>f model based on the watershed stream network .......<br />
HANN, C.T. (U.S.A.)<br />
Monthly streamflow estimation from limited data ..................<br />
KOREN, V.I., KUTCHMENT, L.S. (U.S.S.R.)<br />
Obtaining deficient information by solving inverse problems for mathe-<br />
maticalrun<strong>of</strong>fmodels .......................................<br />
ROFAIL, NABIL. (EGYPT)<br />
The mathematical model <strong>of</strong> water balance for data-scarce areas ........<br />
VILARO, FRANCISCO., CUSTODIO, EMILIO. (SPAIN)<br />
Data acquisition and methodology for a simulation model <strong>of</strong> the Llobre-<br />
gat Delta (Barcelona, Spain) ...................................<br />
435<br />
449<br />
457<br />
469<br />
485<br />
513<br />
525<br />
53 1<br />
545<br />
551<br />
569<br />
581
Contents<br />
Table des matieres<br />
Volume I<br />
ForewordIAvant-propos ............................<br />
TOPIC 1.1 - TRANSFER OF INFORMATION FROM OBSERVED POINTS TO<br />
POINTS OF INTEREST, ESPECIALLY FOR THE ASSESSMENT<br />
OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF DISCHARGES.<br />
POINT I. 1 - EXTRAPOLATION DES INFORMATIONS RECUEILLIES AUX<br />
POINTS OBSERVES A DES POINTS PRESENTANT UN INTE-<br />
RET PARTICULIER, NOTAMMENT POUR L’EVALUATION<br />
DES DEBITS CARACTERISTIQUES.<br />
SOKOLOV, A.A. (U.S.S.R.) GENERAL REPORT<br />
ALBINET, M., CASTANY, G., DELAROZIERE-BOUILLIN, O., JONAT, R.,<br />
MARGAT, J. (FRANCE)<br />
Evaluation et répartition des ressources en eaux d’une grande région par<br />
les paramètres hydroclimatiques et hydrogéologiques ...............<br />
BALEK, J. (CZECHOSLOVAKIA)<br />
Use <strong>of</strong> representative and experimental catchments for the assessment <strong>of</strong><br />
hydrological data <strong>of</strong> African tropical basins .......................<br />
CORMARY, Y - J.M. MASSON. (FRANCE)<br />
Diverses méthodes convergentes pour l’utilisation de l’information à<br />
l’échelle régionale ...........................................<br />
DUBREUIL, PIERRE. (FRANCE)<br />
Le transfert d’information hydrologique à des bassins versants non obcer-<br />
vés ......................................................<br />
GARCIA-AGREDA, R., RASULO, G., VIPARELLI, R. (ITALY)<br />
Pluviometric zones and the criteria to define their boundaries for regions<br />
<strong>with</strong> scarce data ............................................<br />
OBERLIN, G.R., GALEA, G.C., TONI, J.T. (FRANCE)<br />
Estimation des étiages de bassins non equipés .....................
II<br />
TIERCELIN, J. R. (FRANCE)<br />
Parametres régionaux relatifs aux ressources en eau. Utilisation. Précision<br />
d’estimation ...............................................<br />
VAN HYLCKAMA, T.E.A. (U.S.A.)<br />
Estimating evapotranspiration by homoclimates ...................<br />
VOSKRESENSKI, K.P. (U.S.S.R.)<br />
Principles for the computation <strong>of</strong> the main characteristics <strong>of</strong> river water<br />
resources in the absence <strong>of</strong> observations on the basis <strong>of</strong> geographical<br />
interpolation <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f parameters ..............................<br />
VUGLINSKI, V.S.,SEMENOV, V.A. (U.S.S.R.)<br />
Evaluation <strong>of</strong> water resources <strong>of</strong> mountain areas in casi <strong>of</strong> absence or<br />
inadequacy<strong>of</strong>dataonrun<strong>of</strong>f ..................................<br />
TOPIC 1.2 - THE IMPROVEMENT OF OVERALL HYDROLOGIC INFOR-<br />
MATION BY SHORT-TERM ADDITIONAL AND PARTICULAR<br />
OBSERVATIONS AND MEASUREMENTS. INCLUDING THE<br />
PLANNING OF THE ADDITIONAL MEASUREMENT CAM-<br />
PAIGN USING HYDROLOGIC DATA SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS<br />
BASED ON PROJECT ECONOMICS.<br />
POINT 1.2 - AMELIORATION DE L’ENSEMBLE DE L’INFORMATION<br />
HYDROLOGIQUE AU MOYEN DE COURTES CAMPAGNES DE<br />
MESURES COMPLEMENTAIRES ET D’OBSERVATIONS PARTI-<br />
CULIERES, COMPRENANT LA MISE EN OEUVRE DE CAM-<br />
PAGNES DE MESURES ADDITIONNELLES UTILISANT UNE<br />
ANALYSE DE SENSIBILITE DES DONNEES BASEE SUR<br />
L’ECONOMIE DES PROJETS.<br />
RODDA, JOHN (U.K.) GENERAL REPORT<br />
BEARD, LEO R. (U.S.A.)<br />
Hydrological data fiil-in and network design ......................<br />
DELHOMME, J.P., DELFINER, P. (FRANCE)<br />
Application du Krigeage à l’optimisation d’une campagne pluviométrique<br />
enzonearide ..............................................<br />
HALASI-KUN,<br />
GEORGE, J. (U.S.A.)<br />
Improvement <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f records in smaller watersheds based on permeabi-<br />
lity <strong>of</strong> the geological subsurface ................................
KOVACS, GEORGE. MOLNAR, GEORGE. (HUNGARY)<br />
Determination <strong>of</strong> snow water equivalent and snowmelt water by<br />
thickness <strong>of</strong> snow cover data ..................................<br />
MEIJERINK, A.M.J. (NETHERLANDS)<br />
Evaluation <strong>of</strong> local water resources in semiarid hard rock region by using<br />
photo-hydrological indices ....................................<br />
PANT, P.S., GUPTA, M.G. (INDIA)<br />
Application <strong>of</strong> satellite cloud pictures in snow hydrology <strong>of</strong> the Himalayas<br />
and in the estimation <strong>of</strong> rainfall over India during southwest<br />
monsoonseason ............................................<br />
TOPIC I.3A - THE USE OF SIMULATION TECHNIQUES ESPECIALLY DE-<br />
SIGNED FOR DATA-SCARCE AREAS. STATISTICAL ME-<br />
THODS AND DATA OPERATION.<br />
POINT I.3A - UTILISATION DES TECHNIQUES DE SIMULATION SPE-<br />
CIALEMENT ELABOREE POUR DES REGIONS OU LES<br />
DONNEES SONT RARES. METHODES STATISTIQUES ET<br />
TRAITEMENT DES DONNEES.<br />
JAMES, IVAN CHARLES. (U.S.A.) GENERAL REPORT<br />
CORMARY, Y - GUILBOT, A. (FRANCE)<br />
Etude des relations pluie-débit sur trois bassins versants d'investigation . .<br />
CHARANIA, S.H. (KENYA)<br />
Extension <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f records for small catchments in semi-arid regions ...<br />
DAVYDOVA,A.I.,KALININ,G.P. (U.S.S.R.)<br />
Simulation <strong>of</strong> hydrological samples by natural water flow characteristics<br />
HAMLIN, M.J., KOTTEGODA, N.T. (U.K.)<br />
The preparation <strong>of</strong> a data set for hydrologic system analysis ..........<br />
LENTON, ROBERTO L., SCHAAKE JR., JOHN C., RODRIGUEZ-ITURBE, IG-<br />
NACIO. (U.S.A.)<br />
Potential application <strong>of</strong> Bayesian techniques for parameter estimation<br />
<strong>with</strong>limiteddata ...........................................<br />
McMAHON, T.A.,<br />
MEIN, R.G. (AUSTRALIA)<br />
Storage-yield estimates <strong>with</strong> inadequate streamflow data .............<br />
III
IV<br />
MARTIN JADRAQUE, VALENTIN. (SPAIN)<br />
Estimation <strong>of</strong> Gumbel law parameters in small samples ..............<br />
MOSS, M.E., DAWDY, D.R. (U.S.A.)<br />
Stochastic simulation for basins <strong>with</strong> short or no records <strong>of</strong> streamflow<br />
O’CONNELL, P.E., WALLIS, J.R. (U.S.A.)<br />
Choice <strong>of</strong> generating mechanism in synthetic hydrology <strong>with</strong> inadequate<br />
data .....................................................<br />
PORRAS, PEDRO., FLORES, ALFREDO. (VENEZUELA)<br />
Stochastic application in ungauged basins for planning purposes .......<br />
ROCHE, MARCEL. (FRANCE)<br />
Homogénéisation et interpolation des données pour un modèle de simula-<br />
tion .....................................................<br />
SHARMA, H.D., BHATTACHARYA, A.P., JINDAL, S.R. (INDIA)<br />
The use <strong>of</strong> simulation techniques for sequential generation <strong>of</strong> short-sized<br />
rainfall data and its application in the estimation <strong>of</strong> design flood ......<br />
VISSER, J.H. (LEBANON)<br />
The use <strong>of</strong> stochastic models in a hydro-agricultural development project<br />
inLebanon ................................................<br />
WALLIS, J.R., MATALAS,N.C. (U.S.A.)<br />
Relative importance <strong>of</strong> decision variables in flood frequency analysis<br />
WEISS, G. (U.K.)<br />
Shot noise models for synthetic generation <strong>of</strong> multisite daily streamflow<br />
data .....................................................<br />
WOOD, ERIC F. (U.S.A.)<br />
Flood control design <strong>with</strong> limited data - A comparison <strong>of</strong> the classical<br />
andBayesianapproaches .....................................<br />
TOPIC I.3B - THE USE OF SIMULATION TECHNIQUES ESPECIALLY DE-<br />
SIGNED FOR DATA-SCARCE AREAS. THE USE OF MATHE-<br />
MATICAL MODELS.<br />
POINT I.3B - UTILISATION DES TECHNIQUES DE SIMULATION SPE-<br />
CIALEMENT ELABOREE POUR DES REGIONS OU LES<br />
DONNEES SONT RARES. UTILISATION DES MODELES MA-<br />
THEMATIQUES.
NASH, J.E. (IRELAND) GENERAL REPORT<br />
BERNIER, J. (FRANCE)<br />
Données inadéquates et modèles mathématiques de la pollution en riviere<br />
COOK, SAMUEL P., MBURU, SAMUEL G. (KENYA)<br />
Regional groundwater recharge estimates via meteorological data ......<br />
DELLEUR, J.W., LEE, M.T. (U.S.A.)<br />
A rainfall-run<strong>of</strong>f model based on the watershed stream network .......<br />
HANN, C.T. (U.S.A.)<br />
Monthly streamflow estimation from limited data ..................<br />
KOREN, V.I., KUTCHMENT, L.S. (U.S.S.R.)<br />
Obtaining deficient information by solving inverse problems for mathe-<br />
matical run<strong>of</strong>f models .......................................<br />
ROFAIL, NABIL. (EGYPT)<br />
The mathematical model <strong>of</strong> water balance for data-scarce areas ........<br />
VILARO, FRANCISCO., CUSTODIO, EMILIO. (SPAIN)<br />
Data acquisition and methodology for a simulation model <strong>of</strong> the Llobre-<br />
gat Delta (Barcelona, Spain) ...................................<br />
V
Foreword<br />
While the need for hydrological and meteorological data <strong>of</strong> many types<br />
for the design <strong>of</strong> water resources projects is obvious, it is <strong>of</strong>ten found,<br />
especially in many developing countries, that such data are either lacking<br />
or inadequate.<br />
Recognizing the existence <strong>of</strong> this problem, the Co-ordinating Counci*l <strong>of</strong><br />
the IHD appointed a group <strong>of</strong> experts (third session, Paris, June 1967) to<br />
study the problem <strong>of</strong> design <strong>of</strong> water resources projects <strong>with</strong> inadequate<br />
data.<br />
Similarly, the Commission for <strong>Hydrology</strong> <strong>of</strong> WMlO (third session, Geneva,<br />
September 1968) established a Working Group on Hydrological <strong>Design</strong><br />
Data for <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> <strong>Projects</strong> to prepare guidance material on this<br />
subject for the WMO Guide to Hydrological Practices and to maintain<br />
liaison <strong>with</strong> the IHD group <strong>of</strong> experts appointed by the Co-ordinating<br />
Council.<br />
As a means <strong>of</strong> taking stock <strong>of</strong> the work carried out by the hydrological<br />
community in coping <strong>with</strong> project design <strong>with</strong> scarce data, Unesco and<br />
WMO jointly convened a symposium on this subject. The Symposium was<br />
organized <strong>with</strong> the co-operation <strong>of</strong> the IAHS and the Spanish National<br />
Committee for the IHD and was held in Madrid from 4 to 8 June 1973 at<br />
the invitation <strong>of</strong> the Government <strong>of</strong> Spain.<br />
The Madrid Symposium concentrated on the methodology <strong>of</strong> hydro-<br />
logical studies for water resources projects <strong>with</strong> inadequate data and on<br />
current practices for the assessment <strong>of</strong> design parameters.<br />
The Minister <strong>of</strong> Public Works <strong>of</strong> Spain opened the Symposium at the<br />
Palacio de Exposiciones on the morning <strong>of</strong> 4 June. Addresses were given<br />
by Dr. Dumitrescu on behalf <strong>of</strong> the Director-General <strong>of</strong> Une,sco, Pr<strong>of</strong>essor<br />
Nemec on benalf <strong>of</strong> the Secretary-General <strong>of</strong> WMO, Dr. Rodier as President<br />
<strong>of</strong> IAHS and by Dr. Briones, on behalf <strong>of</strong> the Spanish National Committee<br />
for the IHD.<br />
The Symposium was atteneded by 480 participants from 77 countries.<br />
The technical programme, detailed in the Table <strong>of</strong> Contents, included<br />
consideration <strong>of</strong> 3 major areas:<br />
1. Methodology for hydrological studies <strong>with</strong> inadequate data;<br />
2. Current practices in different countries;<br />
3. Relation between project economics and hydrological data.<br />
Each area was further sub-divided into topics for each <strong>of</strong> which the<br />
individually contributed papers were abstracted into a general report,<br />
orally presented by an invited expert, and followed by discussion.
This volume <strong>of</strong> proceedings was compiled by the Spanish National Com-<br />
mittee for the IHD; it includes all the general reports and individual<br />
papers presented at the Symposium, as well as the discussions. It is issued<br />
as a joint Unesco/WMO/IAHS publication in the spirit in which the three<br />
Organizations have collaborated during the IHD.<br />
Since the individual authors did not present their papers orally at the<br />
Symposium, the papers are reproduced here in the order in which they<br />
are discussed in the general report for each topic.<br />
Unesco, WMO and IAHS wish to record their thanks to the Spanish<br />
National Committee for the IHD for the many contributions <strong>of</strong> its members<br />
towards the organization <strong>of</strong> the Symposium, and for the Committee's as-<br />
sistance in the publication <strong>of</strong> these proceedings.
AVANT-PROPOS<br />
I1 est évident que, pour élaborer des projets d’utilisation des ressources<br />
en eau il est nécessaire de disposer de données hydrologiques et météoro-<br />
logiques de types très divers; or il apparaît que ces données sont souvent<br />
inexistantes ou insuffisantes, notamment dans beaucoup de pays en voie<br />
de développement.<br />
Conscient de ce problème, le Conseil de coordination de la DHI a créé,<br />
lors de sa troisième session (Paris, juin 1967) un groupe d’experts chargé<br />
d’étudier les moyens d’elaborer des projets d’utilisation des ressources<br />
en eau sans disposer de données suffisantes.<br />
De son côté, la Commission d’hydrologie de l’OMM a constitué à sa<br />
troisième session (Genève, septembre 1968) un groupe de travail sur les<br />
données hydrologiques nécessaires à l’élaboration des projets d’aménage-<br />
ment des ressources hydrauliques; ce groupe de travail a été chargé de<br />
formuler des recommandations destinées à figurer dans le Guide OMM des<br />
pratiques hydrologiques, et d’assurer la liaison avec le groupe d’experts<br />
de la DHI créé par le Conseil de coordination.<br />
Afin de faire le point des travaux accomplis par la communité hydro-<br />
logique en ce qui concerne l’élaboration de projets pour lesquels on ne<br />
dispose pas de données suffisantes, l’Unesco et l’OMM ont décidé de réunir<br />
conjointement un colloque consacré à cette question. Ce colloque, organisé<br />
avec la collaboration de 1’AISH et du Comité national espagnol pour la<br />
DHI, s’est tenu à Madrid en juin 1973, à l’invitation du gouvernement es-<br />
pagnol.<br />
Le colloque de Madrid a traité en particulier de la méthodologie des<br />
études hydrologiques sans données suffisantes et des pratiques courantes<br />
utilisées pour l’évaluation des paramètres de calcul.<br />
Le colloque a été ouvert par le ministre espagnol des travaux publics,<br />
le matin du 4 juin, dans le cadre du Palais des expositions. Des allocutions<br />
furent prononcées par M. Dumitriscu, au nom du Directeur général de<br />
l’Unesco, par le pr<strong>of</strong>esseur Nemec, au nom du Secrétaire général de l’OMM,<br />
par M. Rodier, président de I’AISH, et par M. Briones, au nom du Comité<br />
national espagnol pour la DHI.<br />
480 participants, venant de 77 pays, participèrent au colloque.<br />
Le programme technique, dont le contenu détaillé figure dans la table<br />
des matières, portait sur trois domaines principaux:<br />
1. Méthodologie des études hydrologiques sans données suffisantes;<br />
2. Les pratiques courantes utilisées dans différents pays;<br />
3. Relation entre les données économiques du projet et les données<br />
hydrologiques.
Chacun de ces domaines était subdivisé en thèmes, et sur chaque thème<br />
un rapport général synthétisant les communications individuellles était pré-<br />
senté par un expert, puis suivi d’une discussion.<br />
Les Actes du colloque, établis par le Comité national espagnol pour<br />
la DHI, comprennent l’ensemble des communications individuelles et des<br />
rapports généraux, ainsi que le compte rendu des débats auxquels ils ont<br />
donné lieu. Ils constituent une publication conjointe de l’Unesco, de l’OMM<br />
et de I’AISH, reflétant l’esprit dans lequel les trois organisations ont col-<br />
laboré pendant la DHI.<br />
Comme les communications individuelles n’ont pas été présentées ora-<br />
lement par leurs auteurs, elles sont reproduites dans l’ordre où elles sont<br />
apparues dans le rapport les concernant.<br />
Unesco, l’OMM et 1’AISH tiennent à remercier le Comité national es-<br />
pagnol pour la DHI du concours qu’il a apporté à l’organisation du colloque<br />
et à la publication de ses Actes.
TRANSFER OF INFORMATION FROM OBSERVATION POINTS TO OTHER<br />
POINTS AND DISSEMINATION OF HYDROLOGICAL INFORMATION TO<br />
UNEXPLORED BAS INS<br />
GENERAL REPORT<br />
Pr<strong>of</strong>. A.A. Sokolov<br />
The netv~ork <strong>of</strong> !yyi;lr;rolugioaì 3bssrvations efist:Ag at present represents<br />
a discrete field <strong>of</strong> points ivhioh refleots o<strong>nl</strong>y approximately the *:onstant<br />
variations <strong>of</strong> hydrologioai elmeats in space and time.<br />
As quite truly notetl Fierre Dubreuil in his report ("the problemi<br />
af traafer <strong>of</strong> data from observations on a point to one or emother area<br />
and their dissenclnation on territories and subjeots where no observations<br />
wero onrried out, has always been. and is n q one <strong>of</strong> the central problems<br />
<strong>of</strong> hydrologf.<br />
This problem is erspecdally important for developing countries where<br />
the network <strong>of</strong> hydrologioal stations is still hadequate and the existing<br />
series <strong>of</strong> observationa too brief(ehort).<br />
But wen in developed countries v:ith a well organieed and sufficiently<br />
dense network <strong>of</strong> statione and<br />
is, and always will be/ a great number <strong>of</strong> water bodies (or regiodor! whose<br />
regime not enough light is thrown by obsemstion data, as a nwnbre <strong>of</strong> middle-<br />
sized, and espeoially small water bodies, considerhg their great qurntiQ,<br />
pnill always be examined o<strong>nl</strong>y selectively.<br />
posts, having operated Por a long time, there<br />
In the Soviet Unior, for eYaqle,accordhg to data Prom detailed<br />
inventarication(2) are numbered about 150 O00 rivera <strong>with</strong> a length Of<br />
more than 10 h(and if ne inolude the shortest rivers <strong>with</strong> a l enw balm<br />
10 h, their total number will aminit to 2 960 O00 ) and about 40 300 lske~<br />
<strong>with</strong> an area erneeding i square h(?:iùif lakes <strong>with</strong> an area <strong>of</strong> less thsa<br />
1 sq.km are boluded, their total number amounts to 2 850 o00 ).The<br />
permanently operathg referenoe network <strong>of</strong> hpirologioal stations inoludes
2<br />
ebout 6200,and the meteomlogioal<br />
-<br />
network more<br />
-<br />
than 10.000 observation points.<br />
The task <strong>of</strong> hydrology as a soienoe oonsiate h establishing, on<br />
the basis <strong>of</strong> a selective stuty <strong>of</strong> water subjects, natural laws <strong>of</strong> the<br />
hyilfolcgioal regime and the distribution in spaoe <strong>of</strong> its ohaxeoteristios,<br />
<strong>nl</strong>lowing <strong>with</strong> a suffioient reliability and preoiwneea neoessaay for praotioe,<br />
to spread hydrologioal data to subjeots or regions <strong>with</strong> a soarcity or<br />
the absenoe <strong>of</strong> hydrologioal data.<br />
Here we would like to refer agaiii to the already mentioned report tnf<br />
Fierre Dubreuil whioh stresses that the most important in the problem <strong>of</strong><br />
transfer <strong>of</strong> hydrological data to unexplored basins is the analysis anä atuày<br />
<strong>of</strong> the laws <strong>of</strong> the influenoe <strong>of</strong> natural and anthropogenous faotors on water<br />
regime aad water balanoe, in the establishment <strong>of</strong> qualitative and quan.t;it&e<br />
relations "<strong>Hydrology</strong> - environment". The author <strong>of</strong> the report notes that the<br />
applioation in the computation <strong>of</strong> the flcod flow and <strong>of</strong> other elements <strong>of</strong><br />
~drologioal reg- Qf numerous empirio formulae, determined for certain<br />
natural oonditions in other regions <strong>with</strong> different conditions, <strong>of</strong>ten results<br />
in gose errors and misoalculations.<br />
The transfer <strong>of</strong> hydrological data to unexplored basina(regiœna) is<br />
direotly or indirectly relnted to the methodology <strong>of</strong> mapping the oharaoterietioe<br />
<strong>of</strong> the 4drological regime applied in hydrology, since the praotioalwcyra and<br />
man8 <strong>of</strong> such tranefer are generally baeed on the mapping <strong>of</strong> oharaoteristioe<br />
<strong>of</strong> the hydrological regime and ita parr reters.<br />
"mo basic methods <strong>of</strong> dissemination(transfer) <strong>of</strong> hydrolngioal daea<br />
on mexplored basins(regions) are used <strong>with</strong> the aid <strong>of</strong> mapa:<br />
1) Drwiilg <strong>of</strong> maps <strong>of</strong> isolinesi 2) Division <strong>of</strong> a territory into regions<br />
based on the uniformity <strong>of</strong> hydrologioal cha-e.oteriat$oa <strong>of</strong> the regime and<br />
its parameters.<br />
The prinoiple <strong>of</strong> the method <strong>of</strong> isolines is the assumption <strong>of</strong> the<br />
presenoe in ths nature <strong>of</strong> a smooth, colistant chenve <strong>of</strong> the oharaoteristiorr<br />
<strong>of</strong> the hydrological regime in space,froin one point to another. The division<br />
into regions, on the oontrary, proceeds from the assuqtion "IIomogeneity"
<strong>of</strong> larger or smaller territories end O€ 8 sudden, spcqmodio ohange <strong>of</strong> the<br />
characteristios <strong>of</strong> the regime between one region and another..<br />
In the publications on hyckology these h o methods <strong>of</strong> geographic<br />
generalization are <strong>of</strong>ten opposed to one another. The appearanoe OC.& critioal<br />
thaf<br />
attitude ooncerning the method <strong>of</strong> isolines proceeds from the fact w th the<br />
development <strong>of</strong> the study <strong>of</strong> smll basins more and more faotors(data) are in<br />
contradiction <strong>with</strong> the mothesis on which this method is baaed. The smaller<br />
the river basin, more tho oharacteristics <strong>of</strong> its hydrologioal regime may differ<br />
from the meaning <strong>of</strong> the isolizes wì-ich suppose their smooth change throughout<br />
the territoryo<br />
--<br />
To this o m be given a greaf number 3f exnrnpleao In the USSR, or the<br />
territory ssturted on the left bank <strong>of</strong> the Volea, for instanoc, two small<br />
basins louated side by side (1OC-200 8q.h.) have a mean many-years spring<br />
flow <strong>of</strong> 27 and 97 mn, while on the map <strong>of</strong> isolines <strong>of</strong> the mean depth <strong>of</strong> the<br />
spring flow, at this place is shown an isoline <strong>of</strong> 6ûnnn.<br />
"aturally, the question arises: w ht indioate isolineat what is their<br />
sigriificanoe and their meming if the run<strong>of</strong>f <strong>of</strong> actual basins deviates so much<br />
from them?<br />
In our piiblications (3,u are examined the reasons <strong>of</strong> the oontradictory<br />
opinions on the effioienoy <strong>of</strong> the utilization <strong>of</strong> the method <strong>of</strong> isolines and<br />
<strong>of</strong> the method OP division into regions. They are oauaed by a misunderetandhg<br />
and an oppesition <strong>of</strong> the zonaliw(moth variations) and the eronali-&(sudden,<br />
looal deviafiole) in nature.<br />
- In our opinion sonai and asonal 1-8, as well as the method8 <strong>of</strong> mapping<br />
based on them methods <strong>of</strong> isolines and <strong>of</strong> division by regione, do not<br />
but mutually oomplete eaoh other. The first (isolines) shows the general,<br />
zonal law# 00 distribution <strong>of</strong> the characteristios <strong>of</strong> hydrologioal regime through<br />
the territory <strong>of</strong> closed basins( ooinoidenoe or a small difference <strong>of</strong> $be aurfaoe<br />
and the eubsurfaoe nater divide), dieplqred in the murse <strong>of</strong> &ir averaging<br />
for large areas, for whioh the influence <strong>of</strong> azonal(looa1) factors <strong>of</strong> the<br />
environment o m be disregardedzThe seaond. permits to reveel the kiternaï,<br />
disorste by its essenoe, structure Of' these avoraged oharaoteristioa,<br />
3
4<br />
conditioned by the influence <strong>of</strong> local fwtors - geological struotures, slopes,<br />
vegetation, spi1 and grounds, which constitubo the surface <strong>of</strong> tho basin, ad.<br />
others a<br />
ûno <strong>of</strong> the rundamental proTLsions <strong>of</strong> the theorj <strong>of</strong> hydrological mqping<br />
and <strong>of</strong> the applioation <strong>of</strong> t he method <strong>of</strong> extrapolation <strong>of</strong> data on unexplored<br />
basizs by means <strong>of</strong> maps <strong>of</strong> io3linesS cor.8ists in tha fact that the data uaed<br />
in this chse, concern basins complying <strong>with</strong> the condition:<br />
A ~ A ( A<br />
ma^ ( 1)<br />
i<br />
-<br />
whsre A - mean value <strong>of</strong> optimal areas OZ the catchment in which is telerated<br />
the interpolatcion o: hydrological characteristics by mans <strong>of</strong> isolineai<br />
- A 6, A max respecti/vely the lower and the upper limit <strong>of</strong> the catchment<br />
area, whose date are unsuitable for drawing m pa <strong>of</strong> isolines.<br />
O<strong>nl</strong>y relation o those basins wiiich comply <strong>with</strong> the condition(I),the<br />
goographical Iritqrpolation is parrrlssible and, consequently, the hypoaesis O?<br />
a smoth and omstant rwiation <strong>of</strong> tho oharnoteristics <strong>of</strong> the hydrological reLi-ie<br />
on tho terr%toFj is correcto<br />
f<br />
In the oatoi-wnt weas rwging from O to A nLio are found other laws. They<br />
ar+ l.aClected in larger or mallsr deflections <strong>of</strong> the characteristioe <strong>of</strong> the<br />
rui<strong>of</strong>f <strong>of</strong> small rivers fro,^ zonal(ssa the abova exainple i>f 27,37 arid 6ûmi)inevitably<br />
everrrged and as if liberated from the influonoe <strong>of</strong> the local factorsíspecificities<br />
oí' the environment, according ti, P. hbreuil). Chi<strong>nl</strong>g to the fa& that in small<br />
basins individual peculiaruios <strong>of</strong> the conditions <strong>of</strong> the run<strong>of</strong>f <strong>of</strong> snow melt<br />
and rainfall plow are sham most sharply(for example, the g mmd o," one basin ia<br />
made <strong>of</strong> ~and,oi' another - <strong>of</strong> olay, or one basin is open, another has a forest cover,<br />
etco) the data on the runaff <strong>of</strong> these basins generally are not suitable for a<br />
geographioal awmarizing <strong>with</strong> mags <strong>of</strong> isolines. With the decreaae <strong>of</strong> the size <strong>of</strong><br />
the ce.%chment increases the probabili% <strong>of</strong> the defleotions, as well as their<br />
importanoeo<br />
The above oan be illustrated by a scheme <strong>of</strong> defleotions o? the mean annul<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f(for m my years) <strong>of</strong> karat rivers from Its zonal significapoe in relation to<br />
the area <strong>of</strong> the oatchment(fig.1) .These "fork-shaped" shhemes <strong>of</strong> deflections can<br />
be disclosed also in study%ng the iliflwnce <strong>of</strong> othar Pactors(for example, the<br />
dekreb <strong>of</strong> afforestation) on the runoef a d their relatione to the dimension <strong>of</strong>
<strong>of</strong> the o.ztohment.<br />
Th oqiplltation <strong>of</strong> these dsfleotiona is owried out by mane <strong>of</strong> gemtic<br />
P<br />
rdlatiora <strong>of</strong> the charaoteristioa <strong>of</strong> the hy.itrologioal regime pli* the faotors<br />
LieteriliQ tham by the lntroduotion <strong>of</strong> oorrection factors in th~ zonal oharaoteris-<br />
Lics sf the hydrologioal regime, obtained for the uriexplcred'bssina tlrougk- the<br />
mq~S <strong>of</strong> isolines.<br />
Y!ie principles <strong>of</strong> oomputation <strong>of</strong> the main oharcoterietios <strong>of</strong> water<br />
resources in the absence or scarcity <strong>of</strong> )Ij-1romtrioal drrta, based on the above eox:al<br />
ari e.zo-ml geographioal laws <strong>of</strong> $he rtmDff, ar9 examhed <strong>with</strong> mre tietails in the<br />
rop0t.t <strong>of</strong> R<strong>of</strong> K.P.Voekresendqr(5)<br />
In the light <strong>of</strong> the atom, tht> oonolusion drawn in the report <strong>of</strong> I.Bdek(e;<br />
euòmitted to th3 present Symposim, beco*:es olear end convincing, nariiely, that<br />
the defiliition <strong>of</strong> reference hy4rologiaal charaoteristios for mexplored sub jecte<br />
(regions)o<strong>nl</strong>y on the basia <strong>of</strong> data from r-jpreaentativa and experimental basins,<br />
cwnot be ~eoomaded, i.e. it ie not possible to transfer direotly data Prom<br />
7bswvations on 8-1 catoinnents tr, unexplored large basine.<br />
The author <strong>of</strong> the report, analysing the data on experimental and represat-<br />
ativu basins <strong>of</strong> fropioal Mrioa, where under the THP programe were created m re<br />
than 100 represantativ<br />
+<br />
d experimental basins, brawe the ooaoluiona that a joint<br />
StUdy(8nalya~s)dfdata from experimental and representative basine and <strong>of</strong> those Prom<br />
the standard network is neoesomy. The differenoe between the charaoterietios <strong>of</strong> the<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f, obtained on small experimontai catchumts and aidlar characteristioa o? the<br />
bash <strong>of</strong> a standard netmork, should be carefully analysed.<br />
Considering the influace <strong>of</strong> fc-eats on the run<strong>of</strong>f on the basis <strong>of</strong> dooumente<br />
from experimental investigationa ia Xqa, ;r.Balak drws the conoluaion that a bamboo<br />
or a high mountain forest reduoes the surface run<strong>of</strong>f a that the replaobanent <strong>of</strong><br />
forests by aEricultural farm inoreases the voliono <strong>of</strong> the run<strong>of</strong>f. Transevaporation<br />
from forest vegetation mas three times higher than that from aeac;o<strong>nl</strong>;r subnierged<br />
fields.<br />
With the increase OP tho 'egrje c? boggiilp;, accorahg to data from obser<br />
vations in the basin <strong>of</strong> the river Ilafou, the annual run<strong>of</strong>f deoreases. in this oonna-<br />
ctiori, 7.Balek underlines that mra attertio- should bo drawn 'to hy~oloy;y <strong>of</strong><br />
tropical mmps, as these wrsnps play an i:pcrtoil-t role in ti-9 foranation <strong>of</strong> the<br />
river rm<strong>of</strong>f<br />
5
6<br />
At ths same time he notes that the methods <strong>of</strong> oomptation <strong>of</strong> the nuirf8<br />
usad at present in the temperate climate should Se revised taking into aooount<br />
the specific oonditione <strong>of</strong> tropioal oatohrnents.<br />
In the report <strong>of</strong> VbS. Vuglinsw and V.A. se?mmv(fl are atudied the<br />
specificities <strong>of</strong> formation and the methods oî .h.anefer <strong>of</strong> data from observa-<br />
tions to unexplored basins si' the run<strong>of</strong>f in mountain are-, including the<br />
conmody utilized method <strong>of</strong> detedning the standard <strong>of</strong> the annual run<strong>of</strong>f,<br />
based on the establishment <strong>of</strong> regional relations <strong>of</strong> the npdulua <strong>of</strong> the<br />
annual run<strong>of</strong>f to tho height <strong>of</strong> the uatchment, aooording to data from explored<br />
bas ias<br />
The authors note that,pthe computation <strong>of</strong> the run<strong>of</strong>f <strong>of</strong> small oatch-<br />
-.axts th utilization <strong>of</strong> the relatlon <strong>of</strong> the nodulus <strong>of</strong> rur<strong>of</strong>f to tho height<br />
<strong>of</strong> tho catohment obtains not always satisfaatory resdtte, whio-h can be<br />
explained by the kifluence <strong>of</strong> looal faotors in the mouutains~ In this relation<br />
oatchments <strong>with</strong> the same altitude 0811 differ ccmsirlerably by the conditions <strong>of</strong><br />
their formation, as well as by the volun.3 <strong>of</strong> the ennual run<strong>of</strong>f.<br />
In suoh cases the auL,hors recomnend to determine the standards <strong>of</strong> i ki<br />
annual run<strong>of</strong>f <strong>of</strong> mountain catcbments witi sufficient or exoessive misture,<br />
by meau <strong>of</strong>' a joint solution <strong>of</strong> tho equation <strong>of</strong> the sate- and heat-balanoe.<br />
Tile run<strong>of</strong>f is oaloulated bj the differenoe between preoipitation and m po-<br />
transpiration. The definition <strong>of</strong> the Etasdard annual preoipitation is oarried<br />
out <strong>with</strong> the applioation <strong>of</strong> graphs <strong>of</strong> the relation <strong>of</strong> preoipitationa <strong>with</strong> the<br />
altitude, taking into amount the crogaphio speoifioities <strong>of</strong> the mear<br />
TT oniputation <strong>of</strong> the etandexde <strong>of</strong> aruiual evaporation is made by a<br />
i.mre preoi e equation <strong>of</strong> & ïbhdyko# nihioh takes into aooouut the turbulent<br />
heat exohange th3 baaio paramatera <strong>of</strong> mhioh are : radiation bCbhaOe, precipi-<br />
tation and turbulent heat-exohange.<br />
The above sohem <strong>of</strong> computation is used for catolnnents looated in the<br />
lower and middle mmtein bolts. For the higher iiiomrtaine this method oan<br />
be used also, but ki this o w the number OP terma <strong>of</strong> the water bcilanoe<br />
equation i8 Fnoreased(it i ta oaïouïata the volume <strong>of</strong> glacier6<br />
ablation, Qf anow pa& melt and a dietinot oeïoulation <strong>of</strong> evaporation from
various underlying surfaces <strong>of</strong> the high muutains~o<br />
In this report are also studied the methoCs <strong>of</strong> oaloulation <strong>of</strong> the<br />
coeft'ioient <strong>of</strong> variability <strong>of</strong> the annual ruu<strong>of</strong>'f - Cv, ueed in momtait~<br />
ter ri to i- ies<br />
In the report <strong>of</strong> the group <strong>of</strong> authors: ML Albitlet, G. Castany, Mpe<br />
Delaroziere-Boulllin, R. Jonac et G. &-gat(B) is exposed the method <strong>of</strong> appraisal<br />
<strong>of</strong> the &mers1 water resoiiroos(equstsd by the authors to the mean m ual r-uiorf)<br />
anci the renmable groundwater resources <strong>with</strong> inadequate data. used by th93 authors<br />
for the territory <strong>of</strong> Franca and Venezuela.<br />
The authors recomiiend to determine the general water resourcss(Ptreamf1m)<br />
'51~ means <strong>of</strong> maps <strong>of</strong> isolines <strong>of</strong> preci;>itatkon &Td evapotranspiration, by the<br />
?ifference precipitation minus<br />
t<br />
evepotransporation calculated by ths method<br />
Thornthwalte or Turc. Th3 value f these differancea are dotarmined by conventional<br />
scpares. ìVhm there is a grmi. Wference <strong>of</strong> the factual evaporation,obtained<br />
>y the differeroe precipitatior? minus run<strong>of</strong>f in a looked discharge seotion line<br />
mid evaporation, calculated by ti- method <strong>of</strong> Thornthwaite or Turc, a oorreotion<br />
coeri'icient is introduced C, by means <strong>of</strong> irhich the map OP the rateu evaporatào.on<br />
13 cor reoted.<br />
yhe authore determina the na%iiral resources <strong>of</strong> groundwaters far the<br />
smis squares <strong>of</strong> the map as the volume <strong>of</strong> tha goneral run<strong>of</strong>f by moans <strong>of</strong><br />
"Geological coefficients" de%i,eci as a portion <strong>of</strong> the unclergound flair in the<br />
generai river ~ f f i<br />
'fl.is approach to th?: cle.:iriitiov <strong>of</strong> the volurm <strong>of</strong> renewed resourods<br />
<strong>of</strong> groundwaters is also utili.eed in the ':SSt? in the publioations <strong>of</strong> B.I.Kudolin<br />
and o.v.Fopov(9)<br />
The method o? computation <strong>of</strong> the total run<strong>of</strong>f by meam ,>P the difference<br />
3recipi :.ation minue evapotranapii.ution arid ths 3ef inition, ori tYAs basig oí' the<br />
so-. ..allad "Clhtio rUn<strong>of</strong>f",recomnan
8<br />
+<br />
method o<strong>nl</strong>) in regions xh he differenoe-preoipitation rtlh~us wapotranepiration<br />
is stffioiently important.<br />
In the practioal application <strong>of</strong> the method, the definition <strong>of</strong> diïferentiated<br />
rr?min@<strong>of</strong> the "geologiaal coefficient" for eaoh square <strong>of</strong> the map Ocin giv$ise<br />
to difficultiee, especially when the territory has been inauffioiently stuclied.<br />
In the reporta e€ van E ylch are examined the methods <strong>of</strong> oompukation<br />
<strong>of</strong> evapotranspiration in regione <strong>with</strong> identioal olhtic oonditione (11)<br />
The author indioates that the existing simplified nudele <strong>of</strong> oalouiation<br />
<strong>of</strong> evapotranspiration through a limited number OP parameters, for at€UUple, by the<br />
temperature <strong>of</strong> the aiqmrathwaite ,me@ aid Criddle,and otherr) lead to errore<br />
in the evaluation <strong>of</strong> the monthly and annual volumea <strong>of</strong> evaporation m-hg %O<br />
3~% or mare. Contradictions in t h resulta <strong>of</strong> oalouiationa mado i>r existing<br />
formulae are shown 3x1 fig.1. The author reoommenda, wh& oaloulating evaporation,<br />
a more detailed method <strong>with</strong> the utilieation <strong>of</strong> euch parametera M radiation<br />
balance, precipitations, air misture8 wìcity <strong>of</strong> wind.<br />
To find an isauo to this sAtuation, namely, that the mentioned initial data<br />
are not everywhere available, tho author proposes to utilize the idea <strong>of</strong> homolhate.<br />
The main point <strong>of</strong> his proposal oo#neists in the choice <strong>of</strong> a well-bonm region<br />
mhere the cli<strong>nl</strong>atir; conditions approaoh to the mx-. the conditions <strong>of</strong>' the area<br />
in whioh the oamputation <strong>of</strong> evaporation m&be oarried out, nnd where the hitiril<br />
data are misskiq. According to the aseertion <strong>of</strong> the author, it is possible by thi&<br />
homolinatio method to oaloulate the monthly and m.nual volrpnes <strong>of</strong> ewlpotrauepira-<br />
tion, differiiig not more than by i@ from those which were measwed.<br />
The author describes the desip sohhome adopted by him for the homoolimatio<br />
maluationa <strong>of</strong> evaporation which is based on tho equation developed ky Penmaw<br />
(i9fflDiq56) and leer OD improved by Montet((1963)wd Van Baveiï(1966).<br />
It should be noted that this equatior does not take inb aooount the<br />
temperature stratifioation ar-d th e mietur6 cq-tmt <strong>of</strong>' +,he soil. Therefore it<br />
iB applioable o<strong>nl</strong>y for computation <strong>of</strong> potential svapotranspiration from soctions<br />
<strong>of</strong> the land <strong>with</strong> an opthal nmisture(irrigation, oapillary subteraraean feeding,<br />
herbagea oloeed up in the stage o f optimel development). Unfortunately the report<br />
doeo not metnion this.
An important particularity used by the author cf the equation oonsista in<br />
the possibility to oaloulate instentaneOue(urgent) values <strong>of</strong> the velocity <strong>of</strong><br />
?vaToration.me author <strong>of</strong> the (van 'PlC%)<strong>of</strong> the opini.on that the Us8 OP<br />
the seasonal, montka and even aeeWy mean values OP the inftfal meteorologiosl<br />
factors for the evaluation <strong>of</strong> the evaporability(%) gives false resultem We have<br />
tr agree ruith thie.<br />
var. iìylcluraa<br />
In the reference equation Fropoaed by is taken into aooount the<br />
resistance <strong>of</strong> the outleta(aooord3ng to bntwt). The reoalaulation <strong>of</strong> tho ptential<br />
evqoration by the equation, in nhioh is taùa into aooount the rssisfauoe <strong>of</strong><br />
ouilete, has prmed that this equation obtains the best reaults(8ee lower part<br />
cif figme).<br />
This method shoulü be wed oniy for the computation <strong>of</strong> ahorMenn(hourly)<br />
data. l'o illuetrate his opinio8fn Hylc-s fig.1 in which it o m be seen that<br />
fi oalculated by the mean hourly initial data cire nearer to fhoee measured,<br />
than the data from oalculation through mean daily values <strong>of</strong> meteorologiod elements.<br />
TO conolude, t!ie author riotee that on the basis <strong>of</strong> the available climatio<br />
olassification(maps) it is possible to use the homolimati0 method and obtain<br />
reliable evaluations <strong>of</strong> the potential Jvapotrsnspirntion for insuffioiontly axplored<br />
regions<br />
The defeot <strong>of</strong> the proposed method <strong>of</strong> trm-sfer o? data from one region<br />
to another oonaista in a huffioient preciseness <strong>of</strong> the definition <strong>of</strong> the hoim-<br />
climate end the absence <strong>of</strong> reliable homolimatic maps.<br />
We have to atop shortly on two other reports, although different by their<br />
oontent, but having m q<br />
oomn features. We have iri mind the reports <strong>of</strong> G.R.<br />
Tiercelin (12) and <strong>of</strong> the maup <strong>of</strong> airthora R. OaroirnAgreda, G. Raastd.0 and<br />
Viparelli(l3). Their oomnon feature is the statistical aepe& <strong>of</strong> the problein <strong>of</strong><br />
trauef er <strong>of</strong> hydrologioal data to unexplored basins(regi0ne)<br />
h3 notes ir his report G.R.Tieroelii: ,disregarding minor d*ih, the<br />
methods <strong>of</strong> ddinition <strong>of</strong> parameters <strong>of</strong> the run<strong>of</strong>f oould be divided eseentitrlly<br />
hito *O grOU2jS 8<br />
1) The establishment <strong>of</strong> a regional dependame <strong>of</strong> the value <strong>of</strong> the defined<br />
9
10<br />
paraueter(man, oodfioient <strong>of</strong> variation, coeffioient <strong>of</strong> oorreìation between<br />
adjaoenf temm <strong>of</strong> a series, eto.) from basio phyaiographio oharaoteristics<br />
(precipitation, evaporation, dimension <strong>of</strong> the area <strong>of</strong> the Oabhmonf, height<br />
above sea ïeveï, forests, etc.).<br />
2) A joint analysis <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f data by a group <strong>of</strong> bydrologioal identical<br />
catohments(<strong>with</strong> a similar condition <strong>of</strong> formation <strong>of</strong> the run<strong>of</strong>f).<br />
In the first oaae, the value <strong>of</strong> the interested parameter for an unexplored<br />
stream is oaloulated by the dependence obtained through the data <strong>of</strong> the neighbus<br />
h g streams, and in the seoonä oase this value is oonsidered a8 equal to the<br />
arithmetioal mean value f'rorn the seleoted values <strong>of</strong> parameters <strong>of</strong> rfvere studied<br />
jointly.<br />
In the work <strong>of</strong> G.P.Tieroelin is used BP assooiated analysis <strong>of</strong> data<br />
aooording to som previously seleoted and hydrologioahy identiod rivers, <strong>with</strong><br />
the same periods <strong>of</strong> observation and having slightly differat seleotive vduss<br />
<strong>of</strong> statistioal parame'ters.In this m ~ ~ is e r determined the regimal signjd'ioanoe<br />
<strong>of</strong> parameters <strong>of</strong> the monthly run<strong>of</strong>f. Data from 12 stations <strong>with</strong> 49 years <strong>of</strong><br />
observatioiis(Prom 1920 to 1968) are wed and are divided iPt0 ho group80<br />
ñegional aues <strong>of</strong> ertain parameterskoeffioienti <strong>of</strong> variatiow&ficiat <strong>of</strong><br />
htraouolear correlation, obtained by means <strong>of</strong> averaging for "idmtioal"<br />
regions are reoonunended by the autbr tQ be trenaferred to irnqlored sl;reama<br />
<strong>of</strong> a given region.<br />
very importtant in this report is the theoretical part devoted fo the<br />
definition <strong>of</strong> the mean-square-error <strong>of</strong> the kraasfer <strong>of</strong> the regiod value <strong>of</strong><br />
the parameter to a oompletely ur-explored or Fnsuffioiently studied wateroourse.<br />
The importanoe <strong>of</strong> the mean square error depends on the qumtlty and<br />
<strong>of</strong><br />
hydroïogioaï data for the region(o0oasionaï deviation), as neil as from the<br />
representativeness <strong>of</strong> the studied river for a given region(deviat5on oaused by<br />
geographioal faotors). The Formulation <strong>of</strong> this problem tio a large extent reminds<br />
the works <strong>of</strong> S.N.Kritcky, ?d.F.b&el and $.G.Blokhinov(m in whioh it is also<br />
proposed to oonsider fho complete dispersion <strong>of</strong> parrunstere <strong>of</strong> Joint<br />
f<br />
series a8<br />
the result <strong>of</strong> a oonoerted aotion <strong>of</strong> the abové) oauses. The praotioa pplication
<strong>of</strong> the proposed formulae requires a great oare, as their utilization implies<br />
the sigiif;oance <strong>of</strong> unknown nctuE1 values <strong>of</strong> dispersions <strong>of</strong> paraneters and the<br />
correlation between the selocted paraneters. In the presenoe <strong>of</strong> short series and<br />
1;lieir smdl nimiber the substitiition <strong>of</strong> actual values by seleoted values o m in<br />
a nunibre <strong>of</strong> oases oomiderably distort the value <strong>of</strong> the mean-square-error <strong>of</strong> e.<br />
i.ogio2irsS inportanoe.<br />
In the work <strong>of</strong> G.R.Tiercelil? , th0 choice <strong>of</strong> a group <strong>of</strong> catchmante<br />
(ciivisiori by regiom) was cwïied out on the basi8 <strong>of</strong> orly a "Visual'1<br />
comparison <strong>of</strong> the selective values <strong>of</strong> the parameters oaloulated for separate<br />
rivers.<br />
In our opinion, a preliminary analysis <strong>of</strong> the conditions <strong>of</strong> formtion<br />
<strong>of</strong> tho riin<strong>of</strong>f on catchments outlined for ct joint stuciy <strong>with</strong> a consequent applic-<br />
ation for the final selection <strong>of</strong> statistioal oritoria <strong>of</strong> similarity, would<br />
be m re aoourate. This more rigid apprcjach to the seledion <strong>of</strong> sMlar regions<br />
is applied in the work <strong>of</strong> R. Garcia-Agrede., G.Rassulo and R.Viparelli(l3),<br />
in which the authors propose to se1eot"plwiorietric zones'by the oonstruction<br />
<strong>of</strong> "peridssible" 9% confidenoe intervals <strong>of</strong> paraiiiaters <strong>of</strong> distribution, determined<br />
according to data from observations in separate points. This more rigid approaoh<br />
will enable w,in a numbor OP cases, +A avoid tho inclusion by mistake in OW<br />
g-oup catohinontJ <strong>with</strong> heterogonoous ooI?i?itions <strong>of</strong> formation <strong>of</strong> the run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
The arithntetioal mean should hardly be taken always as D regional value. It would<br />
be m re advisable to weigh the selective values <strong>of</strong> parametars obtained for<br />
separate rivers. For example, the weight ooeffioiente should be taken in a direat<br />
ratio <strong>with</strong> the areas <strong>of</strong> attraotion and the length <strong>of</strong> the utilized series.<br />
In apite <strong>of</strong> the great preoiseness <strong>of</strong> regional parameters noted in the<br />
work o," Mr. Tieroelin , whioh in the opinion <strong>of</strong> the author can be muoh higher<br />
than for parameters obtained in a short series, the proposed method oannot,<strong>of</strong><br />
coupse, replace a oareful analysis <strong>of</strong> initid data - whioh was already stressed<br />
in the report <strong>of</strong> P. Dubreuil.<br />
In this oorineotion, we would like to refer to the detailed oritioiem<br />
<strong>of</strong> the method <strong>of</strong> hodostations(interc;anneotion <strong>of</strong> series) submitted in the report<br />
<strong>of</strong> A.I.ChebotareP. and B.I.Serpik on the Leningrad Symposium on Floods and their<br />
Coniputation(l5), <strong>with</strong> whose opinion, ooncerning the sffioiency <strong>of</strong> this method,<br />
i quite agreeo<br />
11
12<br />
Besides, the author himelf repeatedly atreeeee th0 neoeseity <strong>of</strong> a oareful<br />
approaoh to the interconneotion <strong>of</strong> eerie8 <strong>of</strong> obeervationa on rims <strong>of</strong> the<br />
so-called identioal regione.<br />
To conoluäe, it diould be noted fhat bestigatiom on the a;plication<br />
<strong>of</strong> the mathematioal apparatus for the Lins <strong>of</strong> epeoe interpolation <strong>of</strong> hydrologioal<br />
oharacterietios <strong>of</strong> the multiple liuear oorrelation are oarried out at preaeurt(16,17)<br />
At the sau~ time onethe basis <strong>of</strong> a multiple linear regreasion, the oonetruc-<br />
tion <strong>of</strong> a field <strong>of</strong> isolines <strong>of</strong> hyärologioal characteristior, impleppsnted by a<br />
conputor <strong>with</strong> an ewaluation <strong>of</strong> the preoiseneas <strong>of</strong> interpolation in q givan point,<br />
ie eventually projeoted.
I. P.Dubreui1. Transfer <strong>of</strong> hydrologioal information to uuexploreâ river basins<br />
(presented ta the Symposiimi )<br />
2. A.P.Dodt~, ReG. Dubrovina, A.I. i8aevat"Rivers and Lakes <strong>of</strong> the USSR"<br />
(reference data) Gidrometeoiedat, 1971.<br />
3e A.A.Sokolov "Zonal m d a~oneï factors <strong>of</strong> the run<strong>of</strong>P".Coll.nf public. on %drology<br />
No 2, GidrO~teOisdat, 1961.<br />
4. A.A. Sohlov.The theory <strong>of</strong> hydrologioal mapping. Bull&ln VW, N0.1~1968.<br />
5. K.P.Voükrûs~~e Principles for the computation <strong>of</strong> the basi4 oharaoteristioa<br />
<strong>of</strong> water resouroes <strong>of</strong> rivers <strong>with</strong> inadequate observationa on the baais <strong>of</strong> the<br />
geographical interpolation <strong>of</strong> th^ paraniators <strong>of</strong> the' run<strong>of</strong>f (presented to the<br />
Splposf tall$<br />
6, 3.Balek. Utilieation <strong>of</strong> representativo and experimental catobments for the<br />
weluation <strong>of</strong> hydrological datri Sron Aifricm. tropical bas- (presented to the<br />
Syqo s id<br />
7. V.S.Vuglinsky and V.A.Semonov. fialualiion <strong>of</strong> water rmources <strong>of</strong> mountain<br />
territories in the absence or soarcity <strong>of</strong> data <strong>of</strong> the run<strong>of</strong>f(presonted to the<br />
symposium)<br />
8. M. Albinef, GICastauy, Mr8r belaroeiercBouillin, R. Jonirc,. J. Margat.<br />
Evaluation and distribution <strong>of</strong> water resources <strong>of</strong> large regions on the baais <strong>of</strong><br />
hydroclimatio and hydrologic oharaoteristioa (presented to the ~psimn)<br />
9. G.I.Kudelin, OiVmPOpOV. Influeuce <strong>of</strong> olimate on the natural 1-8 <strong>of</strong> formation<br />
<strong>of</strong> the groumator fian. Reports OP the soviet geeïogistrr to the 24th session<br />
<strong>of</strong> th9 International Congresri on ûeology.%ydrogeology and Engitmerlng bolo&,<br />
"Nauka", baoon, 1Wm<br />
10. M.I.LlvovEtoh. Elemnte <strong>of</strong> water regime <strong>of</strong> the rivers OP %e Earth. hblio.<br />
<strong>of</strong> KtU cenisa) sa) Board OP the Qdrsmiteomlogioal Servioe) Ser.IVlvol.18<br />
Sverdlovsk - Leahgrßddr<br />
13
14<br />
Hylckama<br />
11. T.E.A. V a Computation <strong>of</strong> evapotrmspiration by region8 <strong>with</strong><br />
idontical climatic condWions(presented to the Symposium)<br />
12. 1LR.Tiercelb Regional parainstors concarning water resouroes. üsee.heciseneas<br />
<strong>of</strong> evaïuation(presented to the Symposium)<br />
13. R. Garoia-Agreda, G. Rasuulc, R. Viparelli. Pluviornetrio zones and oriteria<br />
for evaluation <strong>of</strong> their limits Por region8 w5th insufficient data from observations<br />
(presuntod to the Symposium)<br />
14. S.?l.Kritzky, M.F.Menke1. T.bthod <strong>of</strong> a joint aaolyeis <strong>of</strong> observation8 <strong>of</strong> the<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f <strong>of</strong> identical basina. Public. <strong>of</strong> the CCI (State Institute <strong>of</strong> <strong>Hydrology</strong>)<br />
vol.180, kMmmeteoizdat, lr;7G.<br />
15. A.I.ChsLotmev and B.;.SerpZc. Of the passibility <strong>of</strong> using the<br />
intorconnected seriea <strong>of</strong> hyàrologioal ohaxaoteristios for the oomputaticn oi t h<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f:. Internationo1 Sy-fnposiun on Flscds a d their ComputationbGidrometeoiedat,<br />
1969<br />
16. A.V. lbjdestvendcy. The exporimco <strong>of</strong> bringing the river run<strong>of</strong>f to a long-term<br />
period by the method <strong>of</strong> multiple linear correlation. Coll. <strong>of</strong> public. on ~drolog<br />
No .10.Gidromsteoi~dat,1970.<br />
17. A.G. bbanova, A.V. HojdestvensQ. Space-correlation funotiona <strong>of</strong> the river'<br />
ra<strong>of</strong>f <strong>of</strong> the rivers <strong>of</strong> the D<strong>nl</strong>epr b ash coll. <strong>of</strong> puklio. on ~dr010gy~1Jo.11<br />
Gi drom tuo izdat , 1973
EVALUATION ET REPARTITION DES RESSOURCES EN EAUX D'UNE GRANDE<br />
ABSTRACT<br />
REGION PAR LES PARAMETRES HYDROCLIMATIQUES ET HYDROGEOLOGIQUES<br />
Par: M. Albinet, G. Castany, Mme O. Delaroziere-bouillin,<br />
R. Jonac et J. Margat.<br />
The evaluation and repartition <strong>of</strong> total and groundwater resources<br />
or a large unit, country, region or groundwater basin, may be rapidly<br />
made <strong>with</strong> restricted data, by simple calculation, still obtaining a<br />
satisfactory accuracy.<br />
The total water resources, asimilated to the average annual total<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f rate <strong>of</strong> the water courses may be evaluated by the specific<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f. This is calculed, either directly <strong>with</strong> hydrometric data, or<br />
in the absence <strong>of</strong> gauging by extrapolation based on hydrogeological<br />
characteristics collated <strong>with</strong> the values by the climatological exprez<br />
sions (L.TURC, THORTHWAITE).<br />
The groundwater renouvelable resources are egal to the average<br />
annual groundwater flow rate those evaluation tests on the division,<br />
<strong>with</strong> the help <strong>of</strong> an index, <strong>of</strong> the specific run<strong>of</strong>f. These indes are<br />
worhed out <strong>with</strong> the help <strong>of</strong> geological characteristics an hydrogeo-<br />
logical characteristics punctually obtained b,y field tests.<br />
Thus <strong>with</strong> resticted hydrogeological and hydrometric data and<br />
sufficient data concerning the precipitations, tempertures and geology,<br />
it is possible to obtain a satisfactory knowledge <strong>of</strong> water resources<br />
which exploitation and planification. Practical results have been<br />
obtained in France and Venezuela.<br />
RESUME<br />
L'évaluation et la répartition des ressources en eaux, globales<br />
et soutterraines, d'une grande unité, pays, région ou bassin hidro-<br />
géologique, peuvent être effectuées rapidement avec des données res-<br />
treintes, par des calcule simples, tout en obtenant une précision<br />
satisfaisante.<br />
Les ressources en eaux globales, assimilées au debit d'écoulement<br />
global annuel moyen des cours d'eau, peuvent être évaluées par le mo-<br />
dule spécifique d'ecoulement total (i/s.km2). Celui-ci est calculé,<br />
soit directement 2 partir des les données hydrométriques, soit, en<br />
l'absence de jaugeages, par extrapolation basée sur les paramètres<br />
hydrogéologiques et confrontée avec les valeurs calculées par les ex-<br />
pressions climatologiques (L.TURC, THORTHWAITE).<br />
Les ressources en eaux souterraines renouvelables son égales au<br />
débit de l'écoulement souterrain annuel moyen, dont l'évaluation repose<br />
sur le fractionnement, a l'aide d'index, du module spécifique<br />
d'écoulement total. Ces index sont étables l'aide des paramètres<br />
geologiques et des caractéristiques hydrogéologiques obtenues ponctuellement<br />
par des essais sur le terrain.<br />
Ainsi avec des données hydrométriques et hydrogéologiques res-<br />
treintes et des données suffisantes sur les précipitations, les tem-<br />
pératures et la géologie, il est possible d'obtenir une estimation<br />
satisfaisante des ressources potentielles moyennes pour la mise en<br />
valeur et la planification, Une realisation pratique a été obtenue<br />
en France et au Venezuela.
16<br />
1 . INTRODUCTION<br />
1.1. Rappel des notions sur l'écoulement de l'eau dans le sol et le<br />
sous-sol. Répartition de l'eau des précirdtatlons.<br />
Le débit de l'écoulement total QT, mesur8 à la station de<br />
jaugeage d'un cours d'eau, exutoire d'un bassin versant, est la somme<br />
de l'écoulement de surface QR dans le réseau hydrographique et de 1'<br />
écoulement souterrain QW, transité par les aquifères du bassin drainé$<br />
L'écoulement de surface, QR, direct, rapide (quelques heures<br />
quelque6 Bows) correspond à la crue de l'hydrogramme d'écoulement.<br />
L'écoulement souterrain, QW, lent,différ$, de parcours com-<br />
plexe dans les aquifères et de longue durée (quelques années à des<br />
centaines, voire des milliers, de millénaires) est à l'origine du<br />
débit des cours d'eau pérennes en absence de précipitations (étiage).<br />
D'oui l'importance de la mesure des débits d'étiage représentant le<br />
déMt minimal moyen de l'écoulement souterrain.<br />
Le débit de l'écoulement total est alimenté par les préci-<br />
pi ta ti ons e f f i c ac e s, PE, dl f f ér en c e s entre 1 I évapo transpira ti on<br />
réelle, ETR et les précipitations totales, PT ( PE = PT - ER). Eh 1'<br />
absence de variation<br />
des réserves (longue période d'observation) le<br />
déficit d'écoulement moyen interannuel E"T est égal à PT - QT.<br />
Les débits de llécoulement total et de 88s deux composants,<br />
l'écoulement de surface et l'écoulement souterrain, sont régis par six<br />
groupes de facteurs conàîtionnelst<br />
-<br />
caractéristiques dee précipitations: intensi téídurée, nature ;<br />
caractéristiques géologiques du sol: lithologie des terrains,<br />
perméabilité verticale, structures;<br />
- c arac t éri stiqu e 6 mo rp bolo giqu e s : rnorphom 6 t 15 e, pen tes , reli e f ;<br />
- cmactéristiques hydrogéologiques: humidité de la zone non<br />
eaturée, pr<strong>of</strong>ondeur de la surface piézométrique, paramètres hydrauli-<br />
ques des roches réservoirs et de l'écoulement et de6 structures hydro-<br />
géologiques;
- caractéristiques de la couverture végétale.<br />
Ces facteurs, interférant, peuvent @tre ramenés B trois grands<br />
ensembles: hydroclimatologie-hydrométrie, géomorphologie, géologie.<br />
Les caractéristiques géomorphologiques et géologiques du bas-<br />
sin jouent un r8le primordial dans le fractionnement de l'eau des préci-<br />
pitations, d'o.ii la possibilité d'établir des index, utilisables pour 1'<br />
évaluation du débit de l'écoulement total et de l'écoulement souterraint<br />
De m8me il est possible d'établir des index climatiques.<br />
Les réservoirs aquiferes ont un r8ie régulateur du débit de 1'<br />
écoulement souterrain par la faible vitesse d'écoulement déterminée par<br />
la transmissivité et par la mise en réserve temporaire d'eaux souterrai-<br />
nes, fonction de la diffusivité ( transmissivité/coefficient d'emmagasi-<br />
nement) et des conditions aux limites. Les réserves en eaux souterraines<br />
sont donc a considérer pour l'évaluation des ressources en eau.<br />
1.2. Débit de l'écoulement moyen interannuel et ressources en eaux<br />
renouvelabl es.<br />
L'écoulement moyen interannuel, QT, est assimilé aux ressour-<br />
ces en eaux renouvelables, potentielles, moyennes globales. I1 est<br />
déterminé sur une période de 5 à 10 ans:<br />
- directement par traitement statistique des données hydrométriques;<br />
- -<br />
indirectement 6. l'aide d'expressions climatiques mensuelles ( TURC<br />
et THORNTHWAITE) résolues manuellement ou sur ordinateur.<br />
L'écoulement moyen interannuel, QT, erprimé en laine d'eau<br />
2<br />
moyenne, ou module spécifique d'écoulement total (l/s.km ) permet les<br />
interpolations et extrapolations et l'estimation des ressource8 poten-<br />
tielles moyennes des bassins non jaugés.<br />
L 'estimation des ressources potentfelles moyennes globales par<br />
cette méthode est très acceptable pour les besoins de la planification,<br />
comparée aux &mi.uations basées uniquement sur des mesures hydrométri-<br />
ques relatives à de longues périodes.<br />
17
18<br />
1.3. - Débit et distribution spatiale de l'écoulement souterrain mq- interannuel<br />
Le débit de l'écoulement souterrain moyen<br />
assidlé au débit moyen interannuel des aquifères dans le cours d'eau,<br />
peut être évalué par l'analyse de l'écoulement moyen interannue1,QT.<br />
Une méthode de fractionnement, à l'aiae d'index et étalonnage par des<br />
analyses d'hydrogrammes de bassins représentatifs assez homog&nes, a<br />
áté appliquée. Ces index expriment:<br />
index = écoulement souterrain - - c$w en pour cent<br />
écoulement total QT<br />
2. PRINCIPES DE LA METHODE<br />
Une importance particulière est apportée, dans un souci<br />
de planification et d'aménagement du territoire, à la connaissance,<br />
donc A la cartographie, de la distribution spatiale des ressources en<br />
eau, globales et souterraines. Les données hydrologiques disponibles<br />
sont, dans la plupart des régions, insuffisantes pour permettre<br />
une cartographie. Par ailleurs dans bien des cas il serait inte-<br />
ressant de pouvoir estimer les modules spécifiques d'écoulement<br />
de bassins non jaugés.<br />
C'est dans ces perpectives qu'une méthode simplifiée<br />
d'évaluation des écoulements moyens, total et souterrain, par bassin<br />
versant a été mise au point en vue d'une cartographie à petite échelle<br />
applicable B l'ensemble d'une région ou d'un pays.<br />
Son principe, 6es modalités d'application et les résul-<br />
tats obtenus sont présentés sur un exemple concret.<br />
La méthode d'évaluation et de cartographie de 1'8couleumt<br />
a été établie de facon à pouvoir Itre traitée automatiquement. le, ou<br />
les, bassin6 étudiés étant discrétisés en mailles régulières.<br />
2.1. Données de bases nécessaires à l'application de la méthode.<br />
Ce sont:<br />
- surface du bassin versant
- débit moyen interannuel, QT, de la période p, mesuré à l'exutoire<br />
du bassin versant;<br />
- carte en courbes isohyetes des précipitations moyennes interannuelles<br />
PT, de la période p, sur l'ensemble du bassin versant;<br />
- carte de zonalité de l'évapotranspiration réelle moyenne inter-<br />
annuelle ETR, de la période p, sur l'ensemble du bassin versant. E$<br />
théorie n'importe quelle méthode de calcul d'un indice d' évapotrans-<br />
piration réelle a partir des données climatologiques mesurées ponctuel-<br />
lement peut 8tre utilisé. En général, les valeurs de llévapotranspi-<br />
ration réBlle moyenne interannuelle les plus significatives sont ob-<br />
tenues par calcul sur l'pas de temps11 mensuel, soit à partir de la<br />
hauteur des précipitations et de la température par la méthode de<br />
THORNTHWAITE, soit à partir de la hauteur des précipitations, de la<br />
température et de l'insolation par la méthode de TURC mensuelle. Dans<br />
ces deux cas, les calculs doivent Btre effectués mensuellement pour<br />
chacune des années réelles successives de la période choisie. La moyen-<br />
ne interannuelle doit Btre évaluée exclusivement à partir des valeurs<br />
annuelles de 1' évapotranspiration réelle obtenues. Ces opérations<br />
peuvent Etre réalisées automatiquement à l'aideud'un programme de cal-<br />
cul établi au Bureau de recherches géologiques et minières (B.R.G.M.).<br />
2.3. Calcul de l'écoulement total.<br />
Les données de base étant acquises, les cdculs suivants<br />
sont<br />
-<br />
effectués successivement:<br />
calcul de la lame d'eau prkcipitée moyenne interannuelle (en mm),<br />
m, sur l'ensemble du bassin versant, par moyenne des lames d'eau précipitées<br />
-<br />
sur chaque maille;<br />
calcul du déficit d'écoulement moyen interannuel (en mm), ETT,<br />
sur 1 'ensemble du bassin versant, par moyenne des déficits d'écoulement<br />
relatifs à chaque maille lorsque l'on a admis une hétérogén6ité de<br />
ETR dans le bassin (sinon ETT = PT - QT);<br />
19
20<br />
- comparaison<br />
de la différence, PT - QT (données mesurées) avec<br />
hTT. (données calculées) et calcul d'un coefficient de correction c;<br />
C=(PT-QT)/ETT<br />
Puis calage des "bilans" unitaires de chaque maille ( ETT =<br />
PT - QT) sur le débit d'écoulement total du bassin par application du<br />
coefficient de correction, C, à 1'EITR de chaque maille.<br />
- calcul de l'écoulement total unitaire, maille par maille (en mm),<br />
par différence entre la lame d'eau précipitée et la hauteur d'&rapo-<br />
transpiration réelle corrigée.<br />
2.3. Evaluation de la distribution spatiale de l'écoulement souterrain<br />
La distribution par maille de ltécoulement total pour le<br />
bassin étudie étant connue1.trois procédures sont appliquées en fOnC-<br />
tion des données disponibles pour l'évaluation et la distribution spa-<br />
tiale<br />
-<br />
de l'écoulement souterrain.<br />
premier<br />
-<br />
cas:iaxistence d'une carte des index géologques (page 514<br />
l'écoulement souterrain, QW, de chaque maille est obtenu di-<br />
rectement par application des index à la valeur de l'écoule-<br />
-<br />
ment total de la maille;<br />
le calcul de l'écoulement souterrain total du bassin versant<br />
est effectué par sommation des écoulements souterrains de<br />
chaque maillem C'est cette procédure qui a été utilisée pour<br />
l'étude de la P'ranche-Comté (France) objet du cas concret.<br />
"<br />
- deuxième cas: existence d'une estimation de l'écoulement souterrain<br />
total à l'exutoire du bassin versant (valeur obtenue par analyse des<br />
hydrogrammes, selon une convention appropriée) et d'un bassin litholo-<br />
giquement assez homogène. Cette méthode, concevable en théorie est<br />
rarement applicable en pratique, car les bassins assez grands qu'il<br />
faut considérer ne sont généralement pas homogènes.<br />
- troisiéme cas: existence d'une carte des index et de la valeur<br />
estimée de,l'écoulement souterrain total à l'exutoire du bassin versant
- une première valeur de l'écoulement souterrain de chaque<br />
maille est obtenue par application des index à la valeur de<br />
l'écoulement total de la maille;<br />
- calcul de l'écoulement souterrain total du bassin versant<br />
par sommation des écoulements souterrains de chaque maille;<br />
- comparaison de l'écoulement souterrain total avec l'écoule-<br />
ment total, QT, et calcul d'un coefficient de correction C1:<br />
-<br />
QT QW<br />
- application de ce coefficient de correction C1 aux débits<br />
souterrains de chaque maille.<br />
I1 est important de souligner que le débit souterran<br />
calculé pour chaque maille a la signification de l'alimentation spé-<br />
cifique moyenne probable des nappes souterraines dans la maille, par<br />
infiltration de l'eau des précipitations, indépendamment de tout<br />
apport pouvant provenir d'une autre maille.<br />
2.4. Simplifications admises.<br />
La méthode d'éualuation des écoulements, total et souter-<br />
rain, peut fournir des résultats significatifs al elle est appliquée<br />
H des bassins versants de dimensions assez grandes, à partir des<br />
données hydroclimatologiques moyennes interannuelles, établies<br />
sur une période suffisamment longue pour que le rble des réserves,<br />
superficielles ou souterraines, puisse $tre négligé.<br />
De plus cette méthode s'adresse aux bassins versants pour<br />
lesquels il est possible d'admettre que le débit des nappes souter-<br />
raines est drainé essentiellement par les cours d'eau du bassin. Eh<br />
domaine karstique,par exemple il sera nécessaire de grouper les<br />
bassins versants de telle sorte que les transferts d'eau aux limites<br />
des groupements établis soient négligeables.<br />
terrain,<br />
3. APPLICATION DE LA METHODE A UN CAS CONCRET - POSSIBILITES<br />
D 1 AUTOMATI SATION - PROGRAMME FI,&.<br />
Le calcul et la cartographie des écoulements, total et sou-<br />
ont été réalisés pour les bassins versants du Doubs, de la<br />
21
22<br />
Haute baône et de ltxin, sur une période de référence moyenne de 5<br />
ans. A cet effet, une carte des précipitations moyennes et une carte<br />
de 1' évapotranspiration réelle moyenne interannuelle (méthode de TURC<br />
mensuelle) ont été réalisées.<br />
Trois ensembles de bassins versants ont été utilisés, en<br />
fonction des relevés hydrométriques disponibles, pour llapplication<br />
du programme I.L$C. Dans leur définition, tous les bassins versants<br />
é1éi;lentdres présentant entre eux des échanges souterrains ont été<br />
groupés de telle sorte que pour chaque ensemble les limites topogra-<br />
phiques et hydrogéologiques soient concordantes. Les groupements<br />
suivants ont donc été traités:<br />
- bassins versants de la riaute-Saône et de l'Ognon limités aux<br />
stations de jaugeage de day-sur-&8ne (sur la aaôiie) et de Pesmes<br />
(sur l'Ognon). Superficie totale : 5 782 km2, débit total mogcpn<br />
(période<br />
-<br />
i964-iY68): 3 093, 7. lo6 m3/an;<br />
bassins versants du Doubs et de la Loue limités aux stations<br />
de jaugeage de Rochefort (mir le Doubs) et de Champagne (sur la Loue)t<br />
Superficie totale: 6 350 km'; débit total moyen (période 1964-1968):<br />
5 086,3 .i0 6 m 3 /an;<br />
- bassin versant de l'Ain limité à la station de jaugeage de<br />
r*<br />
Chaaey. Superficie totale: 3 630 km2, débit total moyen (periode<br />
1963-1967): 3 944.i06 J/an.<br />
3.1. MaillaRe des bassins<br />
La planche 1 prhsente le maillage adopté pour le Calcul<br />
des écoulements. Les mailles, généralement carrées (sauf aux limites) I<br />
ont une surface de 25 km<br />
2<br />
pbur les bassins du Doubs et de la Haute-<br />
Saône et de 9 km<br />
2<br />
pour celui de l'Ain. Soit au total pour chaque<br />
bassin versant hydrographique: Haute-Sadne et Ognon, 232 mailles;<br />
Doubs et Loue, 254 niailles; Ain, 405 mailles.<br />
3.2. Cartographie de la distribution probable de l'écoulement total<br />
et de 1 'écoulement souterrain.
Les valeurs par maille de l'écoulement total sont directement<br />
fournies par l'application du programme de calcul FLØC.<br />
La planche 1 présente la carte de la distribution probable de 1'<br />
écoulement total pour le territoire étudié. Elle donne les valeurs en<br />
mm par maille de l'écoulement total moyen interannuel (1964-1968) et<br />
les courbes d' (gal écoulement total''.<br />
3.3. CartograDhie de la distribution probable de l'écoulement souter-<br />
rain.<br />
7<br />
L'application des index aux valeurs calculées de l'écoulement<br />
total permet de dresser une carte de la valeur moyenne du débit des<br />
nappes d'eau souterraine de la région étudiée.<br />
Pour l'ensemble du territoire étudié,l'aptitude du sol et du<br />
sous-sol à permettre l'infiltration a été analysée sur la base des<br />
données de la carte lithologique établie spécialement (fig.2) cl partir<br />
de l'examen des hydrogrammes de quelques cours d'eau. Mais les stationr<br />
de jaugeage dont les données on été utilisées sont généralement rap-<br />
portées A des bassins versants étendus, climatologiquement et litholo-<br />
giquement hétérogènes. L'analyse de leurs hydrogrammes n'a donc pu,<br />
dans la plupart des cas, permettre de définir.<br />
tisfaisante l'importance de l'aptitude du sous-sol A permettre l'in-<br />
filtration. Compte-tenu de ces réserves (et de la possibilitk d'affi-<br />
ner cette analyse lorsque l'on disposera des relevés de nouvelles sta-<br />
tions<br />
-<br />
de jaugeage) deux types de domaines ont été distingués:<br />
les domaines od l'infiltration est nbgligeable, le sous-sol pou-<br />
23<br />
avec une précision sa-<br />
vant Btre conddéré comme imperméable à l'échelle de cette étude) Pour<br />
ces-dbmalnes, A l'échelle du l/ 200 O00 la quad totalité de l'écoule-<br />
ment<br />
-<br />
est de l'écoulement de surface. L'écoulement souterrain est nui;<br />
les domaines à réservoirs aqui feres pour lesquele l'infiltration<br />
est possible. L écoulement souterrain représente alors une proportion<br />
plus ou moins élevée de l'écoulement total. I1 est possible de dis-<br />
tinguer:
24<br />
- les domaines 03. l'écoulement souterrain représente une proportion<br />
moyenne de l'écoulement total (9 %) avec les grès du Permien et du<br />
Trias inférieur, les formations marno-calcaires du Crétacé et les dép8tr<br />
giaci air es et fluvi o- glaci air es ;<br />
- les domaines OC l'ecoulement souterrain représente une forte propor-<br />
tion de l'écoulement total (80 %> avec le Crétacé & dominante calcaire<br />
du bassin de l'Ain et les formations alluviales;<br />
- les domaines OU l'écoulement souterrain représente la totalité de<br />
1 'écoulement: formations calcaires du Nuschelkalk et du Jurassique<br />
supérieur et moyen.<br />
Conclusions - Gomparaisons entre les écoulements<br />
mesurés et estimés- Validité de la méthode.<br />
Différents tests ont été effectués sur plusieurs bassins<br />
afin, connaissant les débits mesurés, d'estimer quelle validité ont les<br />
débits calculés. A titre d'exemple, on peut 'citer le bassin versant du<br />
2<br />
Dessoubre (568 km inclus dans le bassin du Doubs) pour lequel ont été<br />
mesurés 14,2 m3/s (1964-1968) et calculée 16,16 m 3 /s.
SRAE - FRANCHE-COMTE<br />
Carte da k dihbutin rribbk da I'iroulmrnt trtilnomlnterannud<br />
(1964-19681
USE OF REPRESENTATIVE AND EXPERIMENTAL CATCHMENTS FOR THE<br />
LSCESSMENT OF HYDROLOGICAL DATA OF AFRICAN TROPICAL BASINS:?<br />
ABSTRACT<br />
J. Balek<br />
Institute <strong>of</strong> Hydrodynamics,-Academy <strong>of</strong> Science,<br />
Prague, Czechoslovakia<br />
Extensive hydrological records in tropical Africa are available<br />
mostly for large basins. Since the beginning <strong>of</strong> IMD observation on<br />
small representative and experimental areas has been started and<br />
valuable short records are already available. A great number <strong>of</strong> the<br />
tropical basins still remain unobserved. Although the demand for<br />
hydrological data needed for engineering and agricultural develop-<br />
ment is increasing, in many cases it can be found difficult to<br />
provide reliable estimates <strong>of</strong> the hydrological characteristics.<br />
Considering the high fluctuation <strong>of</strong> rainfall patterns and high<br />
non-uniformity <strong>of</strong> the topographical and vegetational cover on small<br />
tropical catchments it cannot be recommended to establish the cal-<br />
culation <strong>of</strong> the data for the ungauged areas o<strong>nl</strong>y on the records<br />
from representative/experimental catchments. All the data from the<br />
catchments should be compared and analysed jointly <strong>with</strong> the records<br />
<strong>of</strong> standard network in an attempt to obtain regional characteristics<br />
typical for certain topographical vegetational and rainfall patterns.<br />
Examples <strong>of</strong> the calculation <strong>of</strong> the data in the Central Africa region<br />
are presented in the paper.<br />
RESUMEN<br />
Utilización de las cuencas representativas y experimentales pa-<br />
ra la evaluación de los datos hidrológicos en las cuencas inobserva<br />
das del Africa tropical.<br />
Los datos más fidedignos y más antiguos existen para las cuen--<br />
cas grandes del Africa tropical. Durante el DHI empezaron las obsef<br />
vaciones de las cuencas experimentales. Hasta el presente muchas -<br />
cuencas tropicales son inobservadas y los cálculos de las caracte--<br />
rísticas hidrológicas para diversos proyectos técnicos y agrícolas<br />
son difíciles. En las pequeñas cuencas tropicales existen signifi--<br />
cantes variaciones en la distribución de las lluvias, topografia y<br />
vegetación y no es posible calcular las características hidrólogi--<br />
cas solamente por la aplicación de los datos de la cuenca represen-<br />
tativa/experimental más próxima. Hay que utilizar todos los datos -<br />
de las cuencas representativas y experimentales y de la normal red<br />
regional que existen en la región, para determinar las caratteristi<br />
cas hidrológicas de la misma región, representativas para predomi--<br />
nantes tipos de la topografía, vegetación y distribución de las llu<br />
vias. Algunos ejemplos sobre la determinación de los datos para lac<br />
cuencas del Africa Central se presentan en el artículo.<br />
+: The research was sponsored by the National Council for Scientific<br />
Research <strong>of</strong> Zambia. Some unpublished data were obtained by the<br />
courtesy <strong>of</strong> W.M.O.
28<br />
INTRODUCTION<br />
During the International Hydrological Decade observations<br />
<strong>of</strong> several representative and experimental catchments were<br />
started in various parts <strong>of</strong> the African tropics, Data<br />
obtained from these catchments together <strong>with</strong> the data from<br />
the catchments established as parts <strong>of</strong> various special<br />
proj ects represent very valuable material for engineering<br />
and agricultural projects in Africa. As a main problem can<br />
be considered how to make best use <strong>of</strong> the data when they<br />
are applied outside the catchment boundaries. As can be<br />
seen from the compilation <strong>of</strong> UNESCO (l), long records for<br />
the African tropics are available in most cases for very<br />
large basins. Obviously such data is <strong>of</strong> very limited use<br />
because the number <strong>of</strong> big hydrotechnical schemes is rather<br />
small. More frequently the data are required for small<br />
basins as a basis for numerous rural development projects.<br />
For the interpolation between the data from very large<br />
basins and very small catchments there is no standard<br />
method available. As listed by Toebes and Ouryvaev (2) the<br />
main purpose <strong>of</strong> the representative catchments is fundamental<br />
research, studies <strong>of</strong> natural changes, hydrological prediction,<br />
extension <strong>of</strong> records and in the case <strong>of</strong> experimental<br />
catchments additional effects <strong>of</strong> cultural changes. Extension<br />
<strong>of</strong> the records is one <strong>of</strong> the most important tasks in the<br />
tropics because increasing the network density can be very<br />
difficult, owing to such circumstances as the river<br />
accessability, staff problems, finances, etc. Thus the idea<br />
<strong>of</strong> concentrating the effort into small areas well instrumented<br />
and observed according to the requested standards, appears<br />
to be very useful, particularly regarding satisfactory results<br />
as obtained in temperate regions. As an example can be given<br />
Volynka catchment located near to the Czechoslovakian,<br />
Austrian and West German borders,
River<br />
Volynka<br />
Sputka<br />
Peklovka<br />
I I I<br />
Drainage<br />
area<br />
km2.<br />
Rainfall Run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
mm. mm.<br />
I I I<br />
1<br />
385 709 246<br />
105 7 54 304<br />
80 625 143<br />
I I I<br />
331<br />
463<br />
443<br />
25.9<br />
8.8<br />
16. 3<br />
29<br />
I<br />
--q--E-<br />
Evapotrans<br />
Yield<br />
pirat ion<br />
i/ s/ km2.<br />
4.53<br />
mm. - !<br />
The catchments is situated in the Sumava mountains. In the<br />
mountains are also the headwaters <strong>of</strong> three rivers (Fig. 1).<br />
Supposing that no direct observation would be available, an<br />
estimate can be done according to the relationship obtained<br />
from the representative catchment (Fig. 2):<br />
River<br />
Drainage<br />
km’.<br />
Otava<br />
Blanice<br />
T.Vltava 347 957 550<br />
However, all three rivers have been observed for a long<br />
period, and actual data calculated:<br />
Drainage<br />
Blanice<br />
T. Vltava 34 7 957 514<br />
1<br />
q-T<br />
- I<br />
Evapotrans<br />
Yield<br />
p irat ion<br />
1 / s / km2.<br />
mm .<br />
17.4<br />
Ev apo tr ans<br />
mm .<br />
Obviously, in a region where very little is known on the<br />
hydrological regime <strong>of</strong> the rivers, results as obtained<br />
indirectly can be considered as satisfactory.
30<br />
Because factors such as snow melting, çoil freezing and<br />
thawing etc. complicate hydrological regimes <strong>of</strong> temperate<br />
catchments, one would expect that in tropical catchments<br />
even better results can be achieved. However, owing to a<br />
high variability <strong>of</strong> evapotranspiration, such an expectation<br />
is far from being correct. There are several factors<br />
contributing to the increased evapotranspiration variability:<br />
Precipitation<br />
Above rather monotonous topography <strong>of</strong> tropical Africa slow<br />
changes in annual rainfall totals can be expected. The<br />
raingauge network is not dense enough to provide a more<br />
complete picture, however, available records support previous<br />
presumption. From the records <strong>of</strong> a very dense network<br />
established in small areas, follows that the distribution<br />
<strong>of</strong> hourly, daily, monthly and even annual rainfall totals<br />
is highly non-uniform. In Fig. 3 the distribution <strong>of</strong> the<br />
annual rainfall in four Zambian catchments, each <strong>of</strong> them<br />
less than 2 km , has been plotted. The rainfall distribution<br />
was measured by the network <strong>of</strong> about 60 gauges. The<br />
variability has been observed for 5 years (3) and it is has<br />
been proved that there is no relationship between the<br />
topographical and rainfall pattern. Jackson (4), studying<br />
the interception <strong>of</strong> Tanzanian forest, proved similar high<br />
variability <strong>with</strong>in a small area. This <strong>of</strong> course makes it<br />
difficult to apply some theories, such as, for example unit<br />
hydrograph, because the centres <strong>of</strong> the storms are rather<br />
randomly distributed above the catchments. Thus, identical<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f volumes produce different types <strong>of</strong> hydrographs and<br />
identical rainfall totals produce a great variety <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
volumes.
Swamps<br />
Origin, size and location <strong>of</strong> swamps in tropical basins are<br />
other factors highly influencing tropical hydrological<br />
regimes. The total area <strong>of</strong> African swamps is about 340.000<br />
km2. They have not yet been classified, according to origin<br />
vegetation, geomorphology, and thus the knowledge <strong>of</strong> their<br />
hydrological role is also very limited. Several catchments<br />
containing swamps have been under intensive observation in<br />
the tropics. In Uganda the evapotranspiration from swampy<br />
vegetation consisting mai<strong>nl</strong>y <strong>of</strong> the papyrus, has been<br />
studied, because it highly influences the water balance <strong>of</strong><br />
the Upper Nile basin. In Zambia heaäwater swamps, so called<br />
dambos, forming a significant part <strong>of</strong> Central African water<br />
resources, are under intensive study. By a comparison <strong>of</strong><br />
the results already available it can be concluded that the<br />
influence <strong>of</strong> the swamps varies according to their storage<br />
capacity, location <strong>with</strong>in the basin and vegetation. Seasonal<br />
distribution <strong>of</strong> rainfall above the swamps plays an important<br />
role as well. In Fig. 4 rainfall-run<strong>of</strong>f relationships as<br />
depending on the percentage <strong>of</strong> the swamps <strong>with</strong>in the Kafue<br />
basin have been plotted. River Kafue has a low gradient-much<br />
below 0,001. From the graph it can be seen how the increased<br />
size <strong>of</strong> swamps reduces the annual run<strong>of</strong>f. Such a type <strong>of</strong><br />
relationship is valid for the swamps <strong>with</strong> u<strong>nl</strong>imited capacity<br />
and located in middle and lower courses <strong>of</strong> the river. On the<br />
other side the headwater swamps behave differently (5). Owing<br />
to the limited storage capacity and high gradient <strong>of</strong> the<br />
swamps the carryover from year to year is negligible and in<br />
most cases the swamps are emptied before the next rainy<br />
season starts. The swamps are sorrounded by dense woodland<br />
where no surface run<strong>of</strong>f can occur and the o<strong>nl</strong>y surface run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
produced from the catchment is from the over-storaged<br />
31
32<br />
groundwater aquifer in the swampy areas. As compared <strong>with</strong><br />
the previous type <strong>of</strong> swamps, the time <strong>of</strong> increased evapotrans<br />
piration is rather limited in the headwaters. However,<br />
representative/experimental catchments are frequently located<br />
in the headwaters and thus any extension <strong>of</strong> the results<br />
toward the lower reaches is very difficult. In Fig. 5 three<br />
curves characterizing the behaviour <strong>of</strong> the headwater<br />
catchments <strong>with</strong> swamps <strong>of</strong> various slopes are plotted. The<br />
lowest line represents flat areas covered by Brachystegia<br />
woodland in the vicinity <strong>of</strong> the swamps. These areas do not<br />
release any run<strong>of</strong>f at all. The middle curve characterizes<br />
the run<strong>of</strong>f from the catchment slope <strong>of</strong> 3%, containing 6% <strong>of</strong><br />
swamps or catchments slope <strong>of</strong> 6% containing 5% <strong>of</strong> swamps.<br />
The upper curve represents an area slope <strong>of</strong> 10% <strong>with</strong> 20% <strong>of</strong><br />
swamps.<br />
The very first attempts to measure the evapotranspiration<br />
from swamps were made by Hurst (6) who concluded that the<br />
evapotranspiration from the Nile papyrus can exceed the<br />
evaporation from free water surface. By some hydrologists<br />
this has been considered as improbable, however recent<br />
measurements support Hurst's conclusion.<br />
Vegetation<br />
As can be seen from the map in Fig. 6, changes <strong>of</strong> the<br />
vegetational cover generally follow the changes <strong>of</strong> the<br />
climate. Thus it might be expected that an intensive<br />
observation <strong>of</strong> catchments established in each <strong>of</strong> the<br />
climatical/vegetational belts can provide a full picture <strong>of</strong><br />
the role <strong>of</strong> the tropical vegetation. However, a more detail<br />
ed map <strong>of</strong> any <strong>of</strong> the regions indicates a great variety <strong>of</strong><br />
vegetational types. It may not be difficult to find a<br />
catchment <strong>with</strong> uniform cover dominant in the region; the<br />
question is whether such a catchment can supply more<br />
representative data than the catchment <strong>with</strong> non-uniform
cover. For example, in the catchments <strong>of</strong> tropical mountains<br />
the vegetation varies accordingly <strong>with</strong> the temperature and<br />
there a catchment covered by all characteristical mountaineous<br />
types is certai<strong>nl</strong>y more representative than a catchment<br />
uniformly covered by one type o<strong>nl</strong>y.<br />
The influence <strong>of</strong> the African vegetation on ‘che hydrological<br />
cycle has been studied for a long time, In 1949 Wicht (7) drew<br />
up a set <strong>of</strong> conclusions on the role <strong>of</strong> vegetation, founding<br />
that the forest will use more water than grass, the consumption<br />
<strong>of</strong> water by forest depends essentially on the amount <strong>of</strong> water<br />
available in the soil and that the removal <strong>of</strong> vegetation causes<br />
an increased discharge. In Kenya actual evapotranspiration/<br />
potential evaporation ratio Et/Eo from various plantations was<br />
measured (8) and in the experimental areas was found that<br />
either bamboo or tall montane forest is an ideal protection<br />
against overland flow, while the replacement <strong>of</strong> trees by<br />
plantation increased the run<strong>of</strong>f.<br />
The evapotranspiration from the grassland and woodland has<br />
been measured in Zambian catchments. It has been found that<br />
the trees consume approximately three times more water than<br />
seasonally flooded grassland. The short grass roots have o<strong>nl</strong>y<br />
a limited chance to consume soil water, while the woodland<br />
trees will tap the water from the groundwater table during<br />
the dry periods. These results were confirmed by soil moisture<br />
measurements and root density analysis (9). It has been proved<br />
also that the Et/€, rate fluctuates year by year and month by<br />
month depending on the meteorological situation, distribution,<br />
intensity and amount <strong>of</strong> rainfall and groundwater storage<br />
available during the dry season (3). The following table<br />
indicates the fluctuation <strong>of</strong> evapotranspiration as obtained<br />
for the swamp grasses and Brachystegia woodland in 1969/70:<br />
33
Month<br />
October<br />
November<br />
December<br />
January<br />
February<br />
March<br />
April<br />
May<br />
July<br />
August<br />
S ep t em b er<br />
Y ear<br />
Rainfall<br />
mm<br />
43.18<br />
80.01<br />
414.27<br />
311.92<br />
237.49<br />
29.97<br />
55.12<br />
. O0<br />
1.02<br />
.o0<br />
11.18<br />
1184.1 5<br />
Evapotranspiration<br />
I<br />
Woodland<br />
mm<br />
Et/Eo Grass Et/Eo<br />
65.35 .4 20.07 .1<br />
98.55 .6 43.82 .3<br />
128.54 .9 95.28 .7<br />
185.71 1.2 97.43 .6<br />
197.91 1.5 71.93 .5<br />
237.05 1.4 77.69 .5<br />
152.66 1.1 39.37 .3<br />
111.54 .9 16.81 .i<br />
74.01 .7 6.02 .1<br />
63.77 .5 5.40<br />
N<br />
60.04 .4 5.28<br />
N<br />
1457.00 .8 407.64 .3<br />
The year 1969/70 was chosen as an example because it followed<br />
after a very wet year and the evapotranspiration from the<br />
woodland exceeded the precipitation, owing to the groundwater<br />
storage accumulated during the wet year. The grass in swamps<br />
evapotranspirated approximately the same amount <strong>of</strong> water as<br />
during previous years. The ratio Et/Eo indicates when the<br />
actual evapotranspiration exceeded potential evaporation.<br />
The values in the table have been determined as limits for<br />
the locations fully covered by the woodland or by the grass.<br />
Supposing the data were applied outside such an intensively<br />
observed area, actual vegetational composition has to be<br />
taken into account, because owing to it actual evapotranspiration<br />
can be found anywhere between the two extrema1<br />
values. The results as obtained in Zambia are representative<br />
for the vegetation <strong>of</strong> tropical wet and dry highlands. To<br />
obtain a more complete picture, similar experiments should
e performed at least <strong>with</strong> two high montane vegetational types,<br />
four types <strong>of</strong> medium altitude forest, two types <strong>of</strong> swamp forest,<br />
two types <strong>of</strong> forest savanna mosaic, four types <strong>of</strong> wooded<br />
savanna, two types <strong>of</strong> thicket, two types <strong>of</strong> swamp vegetation<br />
and various types <strong>of</strong> tropical cultivated areas.<br />
Topography<br />
From flat areas covered by the Brachystegia woodland neithein<br />
surface nor sub-surface run<strong>of</strong>f has been observed. An occurrence<br />
<strong>of</strong> flow was observed o<strong>nl</strong>y from the parts <strong>of</strong> the catchments<br />
having some pronounced gradient. Mixed vegetation found there<br />
suggest the idea that the vegetational cover is influenced by<br />
the gradient as well. Actual influence <strong>of</strong> the catchment slope<br />
can be analysed by a comparison <strong>of</strong> rainfall-run<strong>of</strong>f relationships<br />
developed for neighbouring catchments <strong>of</strong> different gradients.<br />
In Fig. 7 there is a family <strong>of</strong> graphs developed for the<br />
equatorial highland region. Very likely, for dry-wet tropical<br />
highlands the run<strong>of</strong>f values will be higheri for the same amount<br />
<strong>of</strong> rainfall, owing to the increased rainfall rates <strong>of</strong> separate<br />
rainfalls.<br />
Attention should be paid also to the size <strong>of</strong> the representative/<br />
experimental areas. According to Toebes and Ouryvaev (2) the<br />
recommended size lies between 1 and 250 km2 and rarely exceeds<br />
1000 km2. Frequently the areas less than 100 km2, so called<br />
small catchments, are recommended for experimental catchments,<br />
this being based on the presumption that a certain uniformity<br />
can be guaranteed. As follows from the previous discussion,<br />
the significant factors in the tropical hydrological cycle are<br />
highly variable even in small areas and no catchment is small<br />
enough from the point <strong>of</strong> view <strong>of</strong> the uniformity. On the other<br />
hand the extension <strong>of</strong> data from very small areas is not an easy<br />
task. It can be perhaps concluded that in tropical regions where<br />
o<strong>nl</strong>y observational network <strong>of</strong> low density is available, a<br />
catchment <strong>of</strong> any size can be considered as representative<br />
35
36<br />
providing that a higher accuracy <strong>of</strong> basic hydrometeorological<br />
data can be obtained from there than from the standard<br />
network Several catchments established <strong>with</strong>in the main area<br />
can increase the amount <strong>of</strong> information remarkably. A similar<br />
increase can be achieved by the observation <strong>of</strong> several<br />
neighbouring catchments. Sometimes occurrence <strong>of</strong> two or more<br />
factors in some extremal forms can produce rather surprising<br />
results. For instance, at one catchment in Kagera basin near<br />
the Tanzanian-Ugandan borders, steep mountains are drainaged<br />
into an extensive swamp. As a result, the run<strong>of</strong>f coefficient<br />
reaches almost 30%, which is surprisingly high value for the<br />
tropics. Data from such a catchment cannot be applied directly<br />
to the neighbouring basins, however, since a more dense network<br />
has been established there and the effects resulting from the<br />
combination <strong>of</strong> two extremal factors can be measured and analysed,<br />
the catchment can serve as a representative area as well.<br />
CONCLU SION S<br />
Misleading results can be obtained from direct application <strong>of</strong><br />
the data obtained from the experimental catchments in the<br />
tropics. Therefore, whenever possible, data from experimental<br />
and representative catchments should be compared and combined<br />
<strong>with</strong> the data as obtained from the standard network. Parti-<br />
cularly basic data, such as annual rainfall, run<strong>of</strong>f and yield<br />
should be compared before any further analysis is carried out.<br />
Any difference between the data as obtained from the catchments<br />
and from the standard network should be fully explained and the<br />
data developed for any cross section <strong>with</strong>in a basin should fit<br />
<strong>with</strong> the data €or the headwater catchments and for the lowest<br />
observed point as well. O<strong>nl</strong>y equal periods <strong>of</strong> observation<br />
should be used for the comparison, although in some cases it<br />
mean neglecting the long term records. The long term records<br />
however, are to be used later on, together <strong>with</strong> long term<br />
precipitation records, for the extension <strong>of</strong> data <strong>with</strong>in a<br />
reg ion.
In table 1 an example <strong>of</strong> the basic data for the Kafue river<br />
basin is given based on the observation <strong>of</strong> the experimental<br />
catchments and standard network as well. Conclusions <strong>of</strong> the<br />
research on the swamp behaviour served as an additional<br />
source <strong>of</strong> information. Map indicating rivers and swamps is<br />
in Fig. 7 (Headwater swamps are too small and cannot be<br />
traced in the map, however it has been estimated that they<br />
cover at least 10% <strong>of</strong> the basin headwaters). Once the data<br />
€or hydrologically significant cross sections such as<br />
confluences, swamp inflows and outflows, observed cross<br />
sections etc. have been estimated, the calculation <strong>of</strong> the<br />
data €or any point <strong>with</strong>in the main basin is easy and more<br />
reasonable.<br />
According to the UNESCO survey and other sources, more than<br />
one hundred representative/experimental catchments have<br />
been established in various parts <strong>of</strong> the African tropics.<br />
More information can be obtained from them providing that<br />
the materials is collected and analyzed jointly.<br />
More attention, should be paid to the hydrology <strong>of</strong> tropical<br />
swamps, because they play an important role in tropical<br />
hydrology.<br />
The results available from severa$ experimental catchments<br />
indicate that various hydrological methods currently used<br />
in temperate regisns need to be reviewed, regarding special<br />
conditions existing in tropical catchments.<br />
37
i.<br />
2.<br />
3.<br />
4.<br />
5.<br />
6.<br />
7.<br />
8.<br />
9.<br />
38<br />
--<br />
REFERENCES<br />
--_____-__________-_--_----__- 1971. Discharge <strong>of</strong> selected<br />
rivers <strong>of</strong> the world. UNESCO, Paris.<br />
Toebes, C., Ouryvaev, V., 1970. Representative and<br />
experimental basins. UNESCO, Paris.<br />
Balek, J., Perry, J., 1972. Luano catchments, first phace-<br />
final report. National Council for Scientific Research,<br />
TR 28 Zambia.<br />
Balek, J., Perry, J., 1973. <strong>Hydrology</strong> <strong>of</strong> seasonally inundated<br />
African headwater swamps, Journal <strong>of</strong> <strong>Hydrology</strong>. In print.<br />
Jackson, I.J., 1971. Problems <strong>of</strong> throughfall and interception<br />
assessment under tropical forest. Journal <strong>of</strong> <strong>Hydrology</strong> 12.<br />
Hurst, H.E. Le Nil. Paris.<br />
Wicht, C.L., 1949. Forestry and water supplies in South<br />
Africa. Dept. Agric. S. Afr. Bul. 33, p. 58.<br />
Pereira, H.C. 1962. Hydrological effects <strong>of</strong> changes in land<br />
use in some East African catchment areas. East Afr. Agric.<br />
Forestry Journal 27.<br />
Maxwell, D., 1972. Root range investigations. National<br />
Council for Scientific Research, TR 26 Zambia.
Y<br />
ri<br />
Lc<br />
O<br />
39
djONnä 1WlNNVjO WU<br />
O m<br />
ul<br />
O<br />
I- O<br />
O
RNNLJQL RFIINFQLL 1966- 67, LUQNO - CQTCHMENTS .-<br />
v Gauging Statlms<br />
Levei at lûûûmm<br />
Fig.3
O<br />
P 8 8 8 a
Fig ,6
ABSTRACT<br />
REGIONAL VALUATION OF IIYUROLOGlCAL INFORMATION<br />
Y. Cormary - J.M. Masson<br />
This information, inadequate by its very nature, is basically obtained as<br />
temporal series <strong>of</strong> climatic, hydrometric and water level data, <strong>of</strong> different<br />
durations.<br />
A diagnosis about data coherency and the subsequent possibility <strong>of</strong> regional<br />
interpolation, might result <strong>of</strong> different methods.<br />
1.<br />
2.<br />
3.<br />
RESUME<br />
The mere report on a map <strong>of</strong> the parameters (<strong>of</strong> probability for instance)<br />
related to classical hydrologic variables. For the 12 months <strong>of</strong> monthly<br />
variables this yields however too many values. A solution might be the<br />
fitting to the 12 values <strong>of</strong> a parameter, <strong>of</strong> a FOURIER <strong>of</strong> which o<strong>nl</strong>y the<br />
2 to 4 first coefficients may be conveniently retained for cartography.<br />
Report on a map <strong>of</strong> the basic stochastic processes parameters. Probability<br />
distribution <strong>of</strong> many hydrologic var,iables are derived from those proces-<br />
sed and thus depend on the interpolated parameter values. Furthermore<br />
these processes make a better use <strong>of</strong> the existing information and a gaghg<br />
point. Analysis <strong>of</strong> coincidences between different recorded series may also<br />
improve the estimation parameters on the short ones.<br />
Principal componentes analysis (mai<strong>nl</strong>y on climatic data) which through an<br />
interpolation <strong>of</strong> covariance matrix, outline some regional tendancies and<br />
a quantitative interpolation at any point.<br />
4. Analysis <strong>of</strong> variance <strong>of</strong> regressions between flows and rainfalls for instance<br />
on n different watersheds, in order to obtain the effect or morphological,<br />
geological, vegetation, soil factors and therefore transform<br />
a basically qualitative information into a quantitative one.<br />
Each <strong>of</strong> these methods has been actually employed on the rivei- Allier (France).<br />
L'information, insuffisante par nature, est représentée essentiellement par<br />
des series chronoligiques de données climatiques, hydrométriques et piézométriques<br />
plus ou moins longues et nombreuses. '<br />
Un diagnostic d'interpolation sur la cohésion des mesures et les possibilités<br />
d'interpolation géographique peut s'effectuer de plusieurs manières différentes:<br />
1. Cartographie des paramètres des lois de distribution de variables hydrologiques<br />
classiques. Pour des variables mensuelles, ceci aboutit à prendre<br />
en compte un nombre trop important de paramètres. Une solution consiste à<br />
ajuster des séries de FOURIER pour représenter l'évolution des paramètres<br />
au cours de l'année. I1 suffit alors de cartbgraphier 2 à 4 coefficients,<br />
les autres étant des constantes caractéristiques de la région.<br />
2. Cartographie des paramètres des processus stochastiques de base, qui permettent<br />
entre autre de retrouver les lois de distribution des variables<br />
hydrologiques, mais décrivent mieux qu'elles la totalité du phénomène<br />
(pluies ou crues) et utilisent mieux la totalité de l'information disponible.<br />
3. L'analyse de la concomitance des phénomènes entre séries de meme nature ou<br />
non permet de mieux estimer les paramètres de ces processus (modele de renouvellement<br />
double).<br />
3. Analyse des composantes principales (sur les données climatiques essentiellement)<br />
qui permet de dégager les quelques tendances régionales predominantes<br />
et permet une interpolation en tout point.<br />
4. Analyse de variance des coefficients de n régressions ajustées entre variables<br />
hydrologiques (pluies et débits par exemple) sur n bassins versant dif<br />
férents pour mettre en évidence l'influence des caractéristiques physiqueset<br />
morphologiques (géologie, végétation, pente, ... ) et prendre en compte de<br />
manière quantitative une information de type naturaliste essentiellement<br />
qualitative.<br />
Chaque méthode a été utilisée au cours d'une étude du bassin versant de la rivi$re<br />
Allier.<br />
-<br />
Yves CORMARY - Ingénieur Agronome - Laboratoire National d'Hydraulique - Pr<strong>of</strong>esseur<br />
Associé à l'Université des Sciences et Techniques du Languedoc - MONTPELLIER (Fran-<br />
ce).<br />
Jean-Marie MASSON - Inggnieur Agricole - Maître Assistant à l'Université des Scien-<br />
ces et Techniques du Languedoc - MONTPELLIER (France).
48<br />
I - INTRODUCTION<br />
En hydrologie, l'information est constitu6.e esscntiellement<br />
par des mesures de paramètres hydrométriques, climatiques et piézo-<br />
métriques. Ces mesures sont des variables liges à l'espace (l'endroit<br />
uù ia mesure a été effectuée) et au temps (l'époque où eiie a et6<br />
effectuée).<br />
Sur un emplacement donné, la mesure d'un paramètre est<br />
faite de manière continue ou à intervalles de tmps rh~.,iillc.r. 1.a<br />
suite des mesures au même emplacement constitue line séric rhronologique.<br />
Régionalement, au cours des années, les emplacemerts des<br />
points de mesure changent et on se trouve finalement en présence<br />
de séries chronologiques plus ou moins longues et plus WI moins<br />
nombreuses.<br />
Cependant, quand un problhe relatif à l'eau se ;rose -et<br />
le nombre des problèmes qui se posent ne cesse d'?iipeii'-er .avec<br />
le développement économique de nos régions-. I1 n'mistc p:.iti,uc-<br />
ment jamais à 1' emplacement souhaité les infnrmationn nécessaires<br />
pour résoudre le problème, ou tout au moins ces infarnations sont<br />
insuffisantes. Un des moyens de pallier ce manque de donz6es en<br />
quantité suffisante et au bon endroit, consiste à rnobi1is.c.r toute<br />
l'information disponible sur la région environnante.<br />
En France, l'importance de cette valorisation dc l'infor-<br />
mation régionale n'avait pas échappé au co<strong>nl</strong>té "Actior. Concertée<br />
Eau" qui proposait comme sujet d'htude en lu65 d'abord- les<br />
problemes de ressources de maniere scientifique et ri:.iwalc et<br />
de procéder à une synthèse sur un bassin d'assez vaste fiinen!,ion.<br />
Le souhait du comite se concrétisa par un cf'iltïat d'Etude<br />
passé entre la Dflégation GCnérale .? 12 Xcrkerchc Cr i.'u;i:ifique et<br />
Technique (D.G.R. C.T. ) et le tahoratoire F:.:.7ticriai d"1ydrsuliqrie<br />
(E.D.F.). Le bassin choisi fut celui de 1'ALLT.IR (14 O00 km2j et<br />
parmi les sujets étudiés, on relevait : "ia mise sur pied d'iriie<br />
étude des lois de distribution à l'6chelle régionale, permettant<br />
de créer de nouveaux nodoles dc repr6sentatinn, d'extrnpoler<br />
l'inforination et de déterminer une hiérarchie de l'iii:>:-&t dc<br />
chaque station".
L'étude effectuée par le Groupe Hydrologie du L.N.H. et<br />
la Faculté des Sciences de Montpellier a fait l'objet d'une publication<br />
de synthese sous forme d'un atlas cartonné et illustré intitulé :<br />
"Méthodes d'.études régionales des reesources en eau".<br />
Nous développons ici quelques pages de cette publication,<br />
pages consacrées des méthodes d'analyses régionale3 de l'information.<br />
-<br />
11.- INTERPOLATION REGIOXALE DE L'INFORXATION ET ANALYSE DE LA COHEREK'CE<br />
SPAT1 ALE.<br />
i 1 - 1 - pf~se_elcom~qe_be_lljnooimsq~oo_Ear c arto9laE-~-_régionale -<br />
A/- Au moyen de processus s tzchastiques simples.<br />
Une série chronologique sur une station, par exemple<br />
la série des observatiors journalières des précipita,tions ou<br />
des débits, présente une structure bien particulière qu'on<br />
peut représenter au moyen d'un processus stochastique.<br />
Le type de processus le mieux adapté à beaucoup de<br />
phénomènes est un processus de r~nouvellement.<br />
4<br />
hrru t eu r<br />
des pluies y1<br />
T1<br />
Tt<br />
y3<br />
49<br />
temps<br />
Pour tenir c'ompte des variations saisonnières, on dé-<br />
coupe l'année en périodes OU le processus est à peu près sta-<br />
tionnaire : les Ti successifs, durées entre les événements,<br />
doivent &tre indépendants et suivre la même loi de probabi-<br />
lité de densité f(T). Les Yi successifs doivent être égale-<br />
ment indépendants et suivre la même loi de probabilité de<br />
densité g(y).
50<br />
I1 s'agit donc de trouver ces lois de probabilité des variab!es<br />
fondamentales T et Y et d'estimer leurs paramètres, ce qui nous ramène<br />
aux méthodes classiques de la statistique avec cependant ces différenres<br />
- On mobilise toute l'information. Ainsi pour la pluie, on<br />
tient compte aussi bien des jours secs que des jours pluvieux<br />
- Ces variables fondamentales sont observées en grand riombre,<br />
ce qui rend leur analyse statistique beaucoup plus valable que l'ana-<br />
lyse de variables déduit:., fonction souvent compliquée des variables<br />
fondamentales (les pluies ou les débits maximums par exemple).<br />
. Un modèle a été ainsi construit pour représenter la sixcessiun<br />
des pluies journalières à une station.<br />
I1 suppose que la hauteur d'une pluie journalière est la SOIIIIIIP<br />
d'averses fictives se produisant à des instants aléatoires et rpportant<br />
des quantités de pluie aléatoires. Si le nombre des averses par jour<br />
pluvieux suit une loi de POISSON et que les hauteurs des averses<br />
fictives suivent une loi exponentielle, les hauteurs de pluie journa-<br />
lière doivent suivre une loi des fuites (loi I G ama zéro), ce qui<br />
est bien vérifié siir les stations de l'ALLIER. On peut alors estimer<br />
2 paramètres du processus.<br />
p = hauteur moyenne des averses élémentaires fictives<br />
= nombre moyen d'averses élénientaires fictives par jour de<br />
pluie.<br />
c<br />
Ceci, à partir de la moyenne P 24 et de la variance b224<br />
des pluies de 24 heures non nulles.<br />
p=--- *24<br />
L<br />
P24<br />
P=<br />
-<br />
2 P 242<br />
/I 224<br />
Les deux autres paramètres du modèle sont :<br />
TI<br />
T2<br />
durée moyenne des episodes secs<br />
durée moyenne des épisodes pluvieux.<br />
qui permettent de connaître en terme de probabilité ilétat sec ou<br />
pluvieux d'un jour connaissant l'état du jour précédent ; on a en effet<br />
G ér if i é le caractère markovien de la matrice de transition des états.<br />
On a :
La cartographie des différents paramètres sur l'ensemble<br />
des stations du bassin de l'Allier s'crganise bien et permet l'in-<br />
terpolation des parametres du modèle pour n'importe quel point du<br />
bassin, ainsi que le montrent les graphiques ci-joints concernant<br />
le mois d'octobre.<br />
D'une manière généraìe.on remarque :<br />
- l'influence atlantique (Ti court, T2 long,/U fort, faible).<br />
- l'influence méditerranéenne IT, long, T2 court,,U faible,/=, fort).<br />
Le processus peut s'appliquer aussi aux crues et aux t'empé-<br />
ratures moyennant la fixation d'un seuil.<br />
E/- .Au moyen de processus stochastiques associés.<br />
Exposé simplifié du modèle associant crues et pluies (;enou-<br />
vellement double).<br />
Chaque processus est défini B partir de la. distribution des durées<br />
ectre événements H1 et de celles des grandeurs des événements<br />
(z, 1 -<br />
Par convention, il y a un événement "crue" ou "pluie" quand<br />
la variable dépasse un seuil choisi pour que, en particulier, les<br />
caractéristiques de grandeur (volume total, valeur de pointe) enregistrées<br />
pendant que la variable est au-dessus du seuil, et les caractéristiques<br />
de distributibn dans le temps (durée séparant 2 év6nements<br />
homologues) ne soient pas autocorrélées niais que les 2 6x76nements<br />
pluies-débits soient aussi fréquemment associés que possible.<br />
- pour certains événements (Xi et X2) il y a concomitance entre 1<br />
et II (Pi cas). Sur les grandeurs (zl et Z2) est évaluée la corréletion<br />
pluies crues<br />
I<br />
x2<br />
S<br />
4<br />
x2 s<br />
4<br />
51
52<br />
- pour d'autres événements (X 3, P3 cas et X4, P4 cas) ii n'y a<br />
pas concomitance. Ceci s'explique entre autre chose par le fait<br />
que nous sommes obligés de définir un seuil de dépassement cons-<br />
tant sur chacune des deux variables pluies et débits quelle que<br />
soit la saison ou la saturation du sol.<br />
- Marche h suivre :<br />
Sur une courte période T1 on évalue à la f ois les paramètres<br />
du rencuvellement simple simultané sur chacun des deux processus, on<br />
estime égzlement la corrélation existant entre les grsideurs hydrométriques<br />
-.t les grandeurs pluviométriques (Zl, Z2) soit & . Sur la<br />
série longue (Ti + T,) on estime les paramètres du proce;ci;s pluies<br />
L<br />
seul.<br />
Soit ûT1 un paramètre donné du processus crues, moyenne du<br />
nombre annuel de crucs par pérjrJde, des débits maximums, ou des voiumes<br />
de crue,évalué sur une série courte de T1 et accompagné de<br />
sa variance d'érhantillocnage, soit Var (8 ). La prise en consid&-<br />
T1<br />
ration du procescus pluies (sur T, + Tz) nous permet alors, d'évaluer<br />
de nouvelles estimations des paramètres du processus crues ;<br />
estimations dites améliorées, qui sont accompagndes de nouvelles Trariances<br />
d'échantillonnage plus réduites appliquhcs da.is la théorie<br />
du renouvellement.<br />
D'autre part, ccs améliorations seront d'autant plus effica-<br />
ceti que les proportions :<br />
a =<br />
seront plus fortes.<br />
+ +<br />
P1<br />
et b =<br />
P1<br />
p3 pl p4 pl<br />
Le résultat final rend compte de la superpositioii du proces-<br />
sus X, (Z,) et X (Z ) dans les lois déduites sur les crues<br />
3 3<br />
C/- Autres .néthodes d'analyse de la cohérence temporelle des séries chro-<br />
nologiques.<br />
Dans certains cas, il suffit de mettre seulement en évidence<br />
la simultanéité des événements : l'association statistique des épi-<br />
sodes pluvieux h deux stations ou celle des crues et épisodes plu-<br />
vieux sur un bassin. Dans d'autres, les deux séries de données peu-<br />
vent être considérées comme respectivement les entrées et les SOT-<br />
ties d'un système de transformation dont on cherche à identifier à<br />
la fois la structure et les paramètres (transformation des pluies<br />
en débits sur un bassin restreint, des débits amont en débits aval<br />
sur.un bief, de la pluie en variations d'un écoulement issu de nap-
pes). Suivant la nature des hypothèses (ou des connaissances) le<br />
linéarité, l'invariance dans le temps ou suivant le niveau des<br />
entrées du système, la solution est facile, difficile ou impossi-<br />
ble.<br />
Si le système de transformation n'a pas ou ne prétend pas<br />
avoir de signification physique il suffit d? détzrminer la fonc-<br />
tion (dite boîte noire) de transformation la plus efficace. Les<br />
transformations de Laplace, de Fourier, etc. répondent à ce pro-<br />
blème de même que les études dc type 'diener sur les fonctions<br />
aléatoires (en utilisant les estimations des fonctions de corré-<br />
lation et d'nutocorrélation sur plusieurs couples, entráes-s<strong>of</strong>ties.<br />
L'analyse spectrale a aussi conme intérêt d'expliciter mieux que<br />
les procédés classiques la structure des corrélations et l'effica-<br />
cité d'un échantillonnage de mesures un pas de temps déterminé.<br />
Le calcul automatique permet essentieliement les raìciils ma-<br />
triciels, le tirage au hasard (simulation) et la répétition infinie<br />
des tatonnements fastidieux. Les applications en sont :a généralisa-<br />
tion des calciils d'amélioration des stations cuuztes en fonction de<br />
plusieurs stations longues, i'utilisation des techniques de l'analy-<br />
se factorielle pour étudier les liaisons entre variables ou entre<br />
groupe de variables. Ce qui met an évidence les redondances entre<br />
variables ou entre mesures et permet de retenir les plus significa-<br />
tives (analyse discriminante ou canonique.<br />
Ces méthodes élémentaires en dehors des services apprécia-<br />
bles qu'elles rendent par elles-mêmes font parties intégrantes de<br />
méthodes plus élaborées que l'ordinateur permet de maîtriser et sur-<br />
tout d'appliquer à un ensemble important de données hydrornétéorolo-<br />
giques (plusieurs postes, plusieurs variables).<br />
11.2- F.lodele rigional statistique -___-_- _--_ des pluies _-___-_-_____-_-<br />
mensuelles.<br />
I1 s'agit d'expliciter la cohérence spatiale des précipita-<br />
tions mensuelles, afin, par exemple d'optimiser le réseau de mesures.<br />
Sur l'Allier 30 stat'ions avaient fonctionné pendant 40 ans simultané-<br />
ment. Une telle information peut facilement se condenser sous la forme<br />
d'un tableau carré 30 x 30 dont chaque élément m i j représente soit<br />
la variance, soit la covariance, entre la station i et la station j.<br />
Une méthode dite "des composantes principales'' permet par<br />
un opérateur linéaire matriciel A d'élhments a i de passer des 30 va-<br />
riables aléatoires initiales X (pluviométrie des 40 années successives)<br />
à 30 variables aléatoires Y indépendantes, dont la matrice de corréla-<br />
tion est ,cette fois-ci diagonale. C'est-à-dire ne comportant que des zé-<br />
ros pour les covariances. De plus, cette matrice rassemble dans les tous<br />
premiers texnies dc la diagoii<strong>nl</strong>c toutr la variation coiiteniie dans 1 'in-<br />
formation ini tiaie. En revcnant dans 1 'espace initial chaque variable<br />
53
54<br />
aléatoire X de départ peut s'écrire sous la forme d'une combinaison<br />
linéaire des 3 ou 4 composantes les plus importantes, dites principa-<br />
les.<br />
Les coefficients de ces combinaisons linéaires indiquent<br />
la part prise par chaque station L'la constitution de chacun de ces 3<br />
ou 4 facteurs essentiels et indépendants. D'autre part chaque station<br />
est pour chaque mois caractérisée par un petit nombre de paramètres<br />
que l'on peut cartographier de manière cohérente.<br />
x =<br />
de réa-<br />
lisa-<br />
tioris<br />
Notons m..<br />
Xl<br />
m.<br />
= variance (Xi)<br />
= covariance (X.,X.)<br />
N = 30<br />
= 40<br />
ij 1 J<br />
X 1,'<br />
On peut rassembler ces mii, m. en une i.iatrice de covarian-<br />
1j<br />
ce c'est-à-dire un tableau carré<br />
mil' m12' m13 ............................. m<br />
1N<br />
m2,, mZ2 ....................................<br />
............................. m.. ............<br />
Ji<br />
..............................................<br />
%i .......................................... m<br />
N,N<br />
Cette matrice symétrique (m.. = m..) comporte des éléments<br />
a<br />
trop nombreux pour en dégager les partiidlarii!es, et on va tenter par<br />
une transformation de les réduire.<br />
Puisque les dernières composantes principales Y sont assi-<br />
milables B des constantes, on peut écrire grâce aux propriétés de la<br />
matrice d'éléments a. (matrice unitaire dont l'inverse égale la trans-<br />
pos6e) : ij<br />
3<br />
k<br />
xi = aij<br />
yj + c
où C est en particulier une constante ùe centrage tenant compte en moyen-<br />
ne des composantes négligées, K étant le nombre de composantes principa-<br />
les retenues.<br />
Les Y. n'étant pas corréìés, (3) signifie que ia pluie men-<br />
suelle Xi a la station i est une combinaison linéaire i.e, une somme<br />
pondbrée d'effets Y. non corrélés, ce qui suggère que ces effets sont<br />
ceux des régimes climatiques ind6pendants et dominants sur le bassin.<br />
Pour caractériser fl, on reporte sur-la carte du bassin aux<br />
N stations longues, les valeurs des coefficirnts a. ... On cons-<br />
11<br />
fate que ces valeurs s'organisent, présentent une direction systématique<br />
de variation, perturbée, ce qui Pst normal, par le relief du bassin. On<br />
procdde. de meme pour Y P4,.puisque dans 1,'Allier ces 4 composantes<br />
occupent 80 à 90 $2iey?i variance totale.<br />
Les cartes obtenues suggèrent qu'on assimile Y1, quiprend k<br />
lu: seul 70 % de la variation, aux influences climatiques dominantes ve-<br />
nant du Nord-Ouest. Y,, avec 10 & 15 $ de la variation et un gradient des<br />
courbes orients Sud-XÕrd, est assimilable aii climat méditerranGen-<br />
Enfin Y et Y reprbsenteraient les influences continentales<br />
3 4<br />
assez importantes dans les vb!lées de l'Allier.<br />
Ces transformations permettent :<br />
1.- de reconstituer les pluies aux points sans mesures. Les valeurs des<br />
Coefficients a; . comme nous 1 'avons vu peuvent s'interpoler Yynopti-<br />
quement. I1 estJalors possible de procéàer d'abord pour chaque année<br />
et à l'aide de la pluviométrie des stations longues au calcul de la<br />
réalisation des quatre ou cinq composantes principales pour chaque<br />
mois. Ensuite, les coefficients 8. lus sur les K cartes permettent<br />
14 .<br />
inversement de calculer la pluviom trie en un point quelconque à par-<br />
tir des K (quatre ou cinq) composantes précedenment calculées.<br />
La théorie permet d'expliciter les erreurs résiduelles dues<br />
au fait qu'on se limite aux quatre ou cinq composantes qui expliquent<br />
80 à 90 % de la variance totale.<br />
2.- d'estimer les corrélations entre les pluies mensuelles de deux points<br />
quelconques du bnssin. On calcule d'abord les variances et covariances<br />
pour ces deux points à partir des coefficients aij et de la variance<br />
des composantes principales (valeurs propres) correspondantes- Ce cal-<br />
cul permet celui de corrélation et débouche sur des indications objec-<br />
tives concernant la gestion du reseau (puisqu'on pcut déterminer a la<br />
fois l'information ajoutée par chaque poste & la connaissance de la<br />
lame d'eau et l'étendue ,de la "zone d'influence'' de ce poste).<br />
3.- Le calcul de la loi de probabilité de la lame d'eau sur une surface<br />
quelconque (bassin versant) puisque l'on connaît la pluviométrie dr<br />
toutes les iascs 6I6iiiPntaires quc l'on pcut dbcouper dans le bassin<br />
versant eii mPme teinpc que leur corrélation.<br />
55
56<br />
4.- calciil de la loi de probabilité d'une sécheresse simultanée à plu-<br />
sieurs stat
L'autocorrélation des ddbits (et des pluies) s'apprécie<br />
sur l'ensemble des stations et conduit à ui,e fonction annuelle lissée.<br />
La simulation se fait par un processus de Markov d'ordre 1<br />
compte tenu de la matrice des intercorrélations, les erreurs étant ti-<br />
idpc dans des lois normales centrées. Les moyennes, écarts types pour<br />
chaque station et chaque mois se déduisent de la cartographie des quel-<br />
ques paramètres du lissage précédent.<br />
Lorsqu'il s'agit de simuler en tenant compte des séries<br />
historiques de pluies, il faut pallier la faible autocorrélation des<br />
pluies : un tirage des erreurs ayant une forte corrélation avec les<br />
débits générés au mois précédent est substitué au tirage au hasard.<br />
III.- MODELES KEGIOSAL'X AShLYTIQL"o8.<br />
m.1- A l'échelle - - annuelle.<br />
-___<br />
Sur le bassin versant de l'Allier et à condition de consi.dé-<br />
rer la meme période de temps, les débits annuels D sont linéairement<br />
liés aux précipitations annuelles P (23 bussins étudids). Les cocffi-<br />
cients de r6gression et les ordonnies 9 l'origice ont des val:%urs<br />
qui dépendent des caractéristiques physiqucc des bassins. Les carac-<br />
téristiques qui ont le plus d'influence sont : la pente moyenne et<br />
le pourcentage de terrains incultes.<br />
Ces variables ont un? signification discutable dans la me-<br />
sure OU elles en intkgrent beaucoup d'autres (géologie, altitude,<br />
etc.).<br />
Une analyse de variance - effectuhr en fonctioii de 2 ou 3<br />
modalités des deux caractéristiques prépondéran-tes - nous a per-<br />
mis de choisir statistiquement les coePfi.cients de régression et<br />
l'ordonnt5e à l'origine a retenir suivant les modalitós qui slave-<br />
rent reprisenter des cas différents.<br />
- Résultats de l'analyse de variaLice sur IPS relations<br />
pluie-débit 1'6ciielle aniiuellr.<br />
30<br />
7 30<br />
I<br />
58<br />
Ces liaisons peuvent être utilisges pour allonger des séries<br />
ou mieux pour obtenir les paramètres des lois de distribution des<br />
débits annuels. Sur un bassin supposé ne comporter aucune mesure,<br />
on retrouve ìn. moyenne à 1 6 près mais on sous-estime ia vnriance<br />
de 40 5.<br />
m.2- A l'échelle de la crue.<br />
~<br />
Une crue peut être assimilée à un volume modulé dans le temps.<br />
- Le rrridement de la pluie conditionne le volume R. Sur l'Allier, le<br />
meilleur type de liaison trouvé entre R et la pluie totale P est<br />
U = a.Fb. avec Q débit avant ia crue ; b, c et a sont des<br />
coefficirnts dont la'valeur varie d'un bassin à l'autre et peut<br />
etre reliée aux caractéristiques physiques et morphologiques.<br />
Les valeurs de a et b dépendent surtout de carartéristiques<br />
morphologiques et physiques : s'. de forêts, de labours, géologie,<br />
surface... C'ne analyse de variance faite eri fonction de plusieurs<br />
modalités de 2 de ces caractéristiques, permet de déterminer les<br />
coefficients iì prendre en considération.<br />
- La modulation dans le temps peut être étudiée moyennant une hypo-<br />
thèse de linéaiitl psr la théorie ¿!e l'hydrogramme unitaire.<br />
Sur l'Allier, les hydrogrammes unitaires trouvés sont commo-<br />
dément représentés par l'équation d'une courbe (Pearson III) qui est<br />
définie grâce à deux paramètres o( et K qui sont estimés à partir<br />
des moments H, et M2.<br />
Ces valeurs, différentes d'un bassin à l'autre peuvent être<br />
reliées par analyse de variance à des caractéristiques morphologi-<br />
ques telles que : la longueur et la pente du "rectangle équivalent",<br />
le pourcentage de la surface du bassin occupée par les gneiss, l'hyp-<br />
Sométrie et la surface du bassin versant.<br />
Sur un bassin non jaugé, à partir des caractéristiques physi-<br />
ques il est donc théoriquement possible, pour une pluie donnde, ales-<br />
timer le rendement et la modulation de la crue correspondmte.<br />
Les mêmes modalités d'approche permettent de relier les pa-<br />
ramètres des corrélations des débits minimums annuels de 30 j (Q30<br />
en l/s/km2) avec un facteur climatique (calculé à partir de P et<br />
1IE:T.P.) à la géologie et Èi la surface des bassin.
IV.- CO?;CLUSION.<br />
Ces dernières méthodes en cours de développe'ment, rejoi-<br />
gnent la théorie du contrôle qui est aussi une des bases de l'opti-<br />
misation économique. Ceci contribue à créer un outil et un langage<br />
commun aux économistes et RUX hydrologues. En meme temps, se fait<br />
jour, chez ces derniers en particulier, le souci d'expliciter "la<br />
valeur ajoutée" non seulement de leurs méthodes (ou modèles) mais<br />
aussi de leurs mesures et même de l'organisation de celles-ci (ré-<br />
seaux). Cette valeur ne peut s'expliciter qu'à travers une intégra-<br />
tion au plan des décisions économiques, intégration qui met en jeu<br />
d'autres variables beaucoup plus mal connues que la variable hydro-<br />
logique.<br />
L'exemple actuel le plus préoccupant qui peut concréti-<br />
ser ce problème de l'élaboration de l'information pour SR mobilisa-<br />
tion en vue d'un objectif prxcis, est bien entendu celui de la pol-<br />
liition. Dans ce domaine il est clair que l'emploi d'un modèle quel<br />
qu'il soit suppose dès le départ une méthode d'acquisition des don-<br />
nées conçiies.en fonction du modèle. I1 ne peut être seulement ques-<br />
tion d'utiliser l'information statistique issue d'un paramètre iso-<br />
lé à la significat.ion très fluctuante dans le temps et suivant la<br />
valeur d'zutres paramètres et dérivan$ au cours des années sous l'in-<br />
fluence des progrès de l'industrie. Une exploration préalable, par<br />
simulation sur le modèle' envisagg devrait permettre de définir cet-<br />
te stratégie d'acquisition des données. Celui-ci permet d'explorer<br />
les conséquences en particulier biologiques et écbnomiques des va-<br />
riations de tel ou tel facteur dont l'homne a la maîtrise (soutien<br />
des étiages ou modifications de la charge polluante).<br />
C'est-à-dire l'évolution rapide vers l'intégration et<br />
l'interprétation, dans le domaine de l'eau ,des diverses discipli-<br />
nes axées sur l'étude spécifique soit des ressources superficielles<br />
ou souterraines, soit de la pollution, soit des besoins oil des pro-<br />
blèmes économiques. Ces domaines sont encore assez séparés et il en<br />
résulte un effort d'adaptation permanent.<br />
t *<br />
t<br />
Cette note evoque divers points développés dans une publication de<br />
synthèse du Laboratoire National d'Hydraulique et du Laboratoire<br />
d'Hydrologie de Montpellier, éditée sous l'égide de la Délégation<br />
Générale à la Recherche Scientifique et Technique, ouvrage de 133 pages<br />
intitulé "Méthodes d'gtude régionale des ressources ell eau. Application<br />
au bassin dè l'Allier'', dont les auteurs principaux sont MM. CORMARY,<br />
BERNIER, MASSON, LOBERT, DAUTY, SAUCEROTTE, etc... Cette publication<br />
synthétise un bon nombre d'6tudes méthodologiques dont le but est la<br />
valorisation régionale de l'information.<br />
59
ABSTRACT<br />
LE TRANSFERT D'INFORMATION HYDROLOGIQUE<br />
A DES BASSINS VERSANTS NON OBSERVES<br />
Par<br />
Pierre DUBREUI L*<br />
The lack <strong>of</strong> sufficient hydrological datas is generally more<br />
important in the basins <strong>of</strong> small area and located in poorly<br />
developed countries. To estimate the water resources in such<br />
basins, we have to do a transfer <strong>of</strong> information from "similar<br />
basins" for which we have enough datas. This transfer may be by<br />
analogy when the regional density <strong>of</strong> hydrological information is<br />
too slight; that's made up by a qualitative analysis <strong>of</strong> the geo-<br />
morphological factors, which are similar or not, and <strong>of</strong> their<br />
influence on water resources, between the project basin and the<br />
similar ones. When the regional density <strong>of</strong> hydrological datas is<br />
higher -old hydrometric network and/or numerous representatives<br />
basins- the transfer will be easier, using stochastic relations<br />
between dependent hydrological variables and explicative variables<br />
fo the physical environment; practically, in this case, we can<br />
establish and utilize regional graphs and norms. Some practical<br />
examples show the possibilities and limits <strong>of</strong> the two methods <strong>of</strong><br />
transver.<br />
--<br />
RE S UME<br />
L'abscence de données hydrologiques suffisantes est d'autant<br />
plus aiguë que les bassins versants sont de faible superficie et<br />
situés dans des contrées peu développées. L'estimation des res-<br />
sources en eau sur de tels bassins exige un transfert d'informa-<br />
tion depuis des bassins de comparaison oh l'on possède des don-<br />
nées. Ce transfert peut être analogique lorsque la densité réeio<br />
nale d'information hydrologique est faible; il consiste en une<br />
analyse qualitative des éléments géomorphol<strong>of</strong>iques comparables<br />
ou dissemblables et de leurs effets sur les ressources en eau<br />
entre bassin du projet et bassins de comparaison. Lorsque la den<br />
sité régionale d'information hydrologique est élevée -réseau hy-<br />
drométrique ancien et/ou nombreux bassins représentatifs- le<br />
transfert fait appel aux liaisons stochastiques entre variables<br />
hydrologiques dépendantes et variables du milieu physique expli-<br />
catives et se matérialise par des normes ou abaques régionaux.<br />
Des exemples précis et utilisés des deux méthodes de transfert<br />
illustrent leurs possibiiitês et leurs limites respectives.<br />
* Chef du Département de la Recherche Appliquée-au Service Hydro<br />
logique de 1'O.R.S.T.O.M. - France.<br />
-
62<br />
Les pays dans lesquels il y a encore de nos jours absence d'infom-<br />
tion hydrologique sont en quarstité de plus en plus réduite.<br />
L'estinmtion des ressources en eau ne peut y etre faite, a priori,<br />
que d'une manière grossière en procédant par analogie avec d'autres pays dotés<br />
eux d'information hydrologique ; ce transfert analogique d'information est<br />
évidement beaucoup moins stir que celui auquel on peut procéder dans un pays<br />
ou une région non dénué d'infomation hydrologique, la méthodologie restant la.<br />
m& come on le verra plus loin.<br />
Mis 3. part ces exceptions, la p1upal-t des pays disposent d'informations<br />
hydrologiques fournies soit pr les réseaux hydrométriques, soit par les<br />
bassins représentatifs. Ces infornations hydrologiques,quelle que soit la<br />
densité des dispositifs de mesures,ne concernent qu'un certain nombre de bassins<br />
versants. I1 y a toujours des bassins versants non observés, même dans les pays<br />
dotés d'excellents réseaux de mesures. Or, les besoins de connaissance de la<br />
ressource en eau se posent aussi bien pour les bassins des réseaux que pour les<br />
bassins non observés. En effet, les réseaux de mesures ont été généralenient miis<br />
en place peu à peu au cours de l'histoire, l'implantation des stations s'effectuant<br />
en considération des besoins médiats. Dans certains cas, une planification<br />
préalable de l'implantation des stations du réseau a pu ¿?tre réalisée en<br />
tenant compte de certains objectifs à moyen terme de l'utilisation des eaux.<br />
Malgré tout, la croissance des besoips en eau est telle,au cours des années<br />
présentes de la seconde moitié du erne siècle,que les ressources en eau sont<br />
recherchées là OU, il y a vingt ou trente ans, il paraissait ne pas y avoir de<br />
problème et oh, par conséquent, aucune station de mesures ne fut implantée.<br />
On peut donc dire aujourd'hui que l'hydrologue doit partager son<br />
temps entre l'analyse des informations collectées sur les bassins observés et<br />
l'estimation des mems informations sur les bassins non observés.<br />
Si le problème de cette estimation se pose sur un grand cours d'eau<br />
drainant un bassin de superficie importante, il est à peu p&s certain que l'on<br />
trouve en amont et en aval du lieu d'estimation - c'est-à-dire du site d'un<br />
projet d'aménagemnt hydraulique - une station d'observation. Dans ces condi-<br />
tions, le transfert d'analogie est facile puisque les caractéristiques hydrolo-<br />
giques du lieu d'estination sont comprises entre celles des stations d'observa-<br />
tions dont elles diffèrent d'ailleurs assez peu.<br />
La majorité des problèmes d'estjmation se posentpour des bassins non<br />
observés c'est-à-dire pour des bassins versants de superficie faible à modérée<br />
sur lesquelles n'existent aucune station de mesure. La résolution de ces<br />
problemes exige le recours à l'information disponible dans des bassins voisins<br />
de la &me région climatique. Le transfert d'information repose sur le postulat<br />
selon lequel deux bassins auront des caractéristiques hydrologiques identiques<br />
si leur milieu physico-climatique - leur environnemnt - est le &m.
Le problème consiste donc à analyser ce milieu physico-cbtique, en dégager<br />
les paramètres susceptibles d'influencer les caractères hydrologiques afin de<br />
mettre en évidence le r8le de ce milieu sur lesdits caractères.<br />
Si l'on dispose, dans une région climatique homogène, d'une informa-<br />
tion hydrologique abondante et de bonne qualité, ia méthode de transfert<br />
consiste à utiliser un ensemble de liaisons numériques ou graphiques établies<br />
entre variables hydrologiques et paramètres de l'environnement.<br />
Si l'information hydrologique régionale est insuffisante ou si<br />
l'ensemble précédent de liaisons l'hydmlogie-milieult n'a pas été élaboré, la<br />
méthode de transfert est purement analogique et qualitative puisqu'elle ne<br />
peut estkr les caractères hydrologiques du lieu d'estimation que par analogie<br />
avec ceux du ou des bassins observés ayant l'environnement le plus comparable<br />
avec celui du bassin non observé.<br />
On examine successivement ces deux méthodes de transfert de l'informa-<br />
tion hydrologique en s'appuyant sur des exemples concrets.<br />
1. Relations entre variables hydrologiques et paramètres de l'environnement<br />
Sur un plan général, le problème consiste en l'établissement de<br />
relations entre des variables hydrologiques V1, V2.. . définies, a priori, et<br />
certains paramètres Pl, P2". P du milieu physico-climatique, de la forme<br />
n<br />
V1 = f (Pl, P2...P<br />
k ) de telle sorte que l'écart résiduel soit minimal.<br />
Le problème n'est pas nouveau. Déjà au début du neme siècle, l'hydrologie<br />
considérée aujourd'hui com classique avait abordé le problem en<br />
élaborant diverses formules d'écoulement ou explicatives de variables hydrologiques.<br />
La littérature consacrée à ces formules est abondante ; on en trouve<br />
un bon catalogue dans l'ouvrage de G. REMENIERAS rl] y<br />
011 peut citer :<br />
a) les formules donnant le déficit d'6coulement annuel moyen en<br />
fonction des précipitations et de La température annuelles moyennes comme celle,;<br />
Cie COUTACa\IE et TURC ou celle de THOFCNTHWAITE prenant en considération le bilan<br />
mensuel entm pluie et évapotranspiration.<br />
b) les formules donnant h s caractéristiques de l'hydrogram unitaire<br />
de cyue - temps de réponse en fonction de la longueur du bassin, débit de pointa<br />
en fonction de la surface, de la durée de la pluie et de l'état du bassin ...<br />
etc . - come celles de SEDER établies dans la région des Appalaches aim<br />
U.S.A.<br />
63
64<br />
c) les formules donnant le débit ma-1 d'une cme de fréquence<br />
choisie, soit établie de manière rationnelle c om celle de CAQUOT<br />
(Q = KI? Cn A', K fonction de la fréquence, C coefficient de ruissellemnt,<br />
I pente et A surface du bassin), soit établies expérimentalement come celles<br />
des italiens GIEWEUI, KENTURA... etc ... qui reliaient débit et surface<br />
de bassin, temps de concentration de l'écoulenient et surface et pente du bassin.<br />
L'utilisation abusive de ces formules a conduit à de nombreux déboires.<br />
I1 faut, en effet, considérer qu'elles ont été établies à partir de données<br />
expérimentales en quantité limitée et en provenance d'une certaine région et<br />
qu'il était illogique de les appliquer à des bassins situés dans des régions<br />
d'environnemnt différent. En outre, les paramètres explicatifs pris en compte<br />
étaient peu nombreux et pour certaines uniquemnt du domaine climatique ; pzr<br />
conséquent, leur application ne pouvait donner que des résulta-ts d'autant plus<br />
erronés que les particularités de milieu étaient importantes.<br />
On admt aujourd'hui que le domine d'utilisation de ces formles<br />
doit @tre limité à la région de laquelle proviennent les données expérimentales<br />
ayant contribué à leur élaboration OU à des régions d'environnement comparables.<br />
I1 est, en effet, évident que si la liaison proposée est de la forme<br />
V = f (Pl, P2.0ePk)J c'est que les paramètres du milieu P à P ne sont pas<br />
1 kS1 n<br />
influents sur V mais c'est aussi à l'inverse que &.-dite liaison n'est utilisa-<br />
1<br />
ble que dans une région OU les valeurs de P à<br />
k+l<br />
P<br />
n<br />
ne sont pas différentes de<br />
celles de la région d'élaboration de laAite liaison.<br />
Au cours de la seconde moitié du erne siècle, les mesures hydrométriques<br />
ont été intensémnt développées tandis que, parallèlemnt, les utilisateurs<br />
des eau mnifestaient des exigences croissantes quant à la connaissance de la<br />
ressource disponible - précision accrue, diversification des variables -o<br />
Les relations régionales entre variables hydrologiques et paramètres<br />
du milieu doivent de nos jours etre établies à partir de toute l'infomation<br />
disponible critiquée et s'appuyer sur une analyse poussée du milieu.<br />
Rassembler, analyser et critiquer 1' information hydrologique régionale<br />
disponible est aujourd'hui une opération longue et délicate. A l'O.R.S.T.O.M.,<br />
la mise au point d'une monographie de grand bassin hydrographique demnde 4 à 5<br />
ans (SENEGAL, NIGER, CHARI.. .) , la synthèse de quelques 200 bassins représenta-<br />
tifs demnde encore plus de temps. A partir du moment oh lqon exige une bonne<br />
précision des relations hydrologie-milieu, l'analyse critique de consistance<br />
des données est indispensable quelle qu'en soit la durée ou la complexité. C'est<br />
peu pourquoi ces relations régionales, tant attendues par les planificateurs<br />
et les utilisateurs de la ressource en eau, ne voient le jour que très lentemnt,<br />
beaucoup plus lentement que les formules précédemment évoquées.
Ceci est d'autant plus regrettable qu'en l'absence de telles relations, l'utili-<br />
sateur est amené, pour chaque projet, à. solliciter l'avis de l'hydrologue qui<br />
se trouve contraint d'opérer au coup par coup par simple transfert analogique<br />
dont la précision des résultats est moindre. I1 paraft urgent qu'un effort<br />
prioritaire soit décidé en vue de l'établissenient rapide de ces relations<br />
régionales dans tous les pays possédant déjà une information suffisante.<br />
L'0.R.S.T.O.M. a concentr6 une partie de ses activités sur cet objec-<br />
tif au cours des dix dernières années.<br />
Dès 1965, C. AWRAY et J. RODIEX [2] établissaient un ensemble de<br />
graphiques permettant l'esthtion des crues décennales à l'issue de bassins<br />
versants de 2 à 200 km2 en Afrique occidentale intertropicale, à partir de<br />
l'information collectée sur quelque 60 bassins représentatifs exploités de 1<br />
à 5 ans.<br />
Le tableau suivant décrit sommairemnt le contenu de ces graphiques.<br />
: Variable expliquée : Fonction : Paramètre explicatif :<br />
.--------------------:------------------:---------------------.<br />
: decemale : précipitation<br />
: Coefficient de missel-: décroissante : logarithme de la<br />
: lenient : surface<br />
Hauteur de l'averse croissante : Hauteur annuelle de :<br />
: Temps de montée, temps croissante 11<br />
de base et coefficient :<br />
: de forme de l'hydro- :<br />
' gram.<br />
Le miLieu physique était pris en compte par l'intermédiaire de<br />
groupes climatiques (subdésertique à végétation steppique, tropical à végétation<br />
de savane plus ou mohs arbode, équatorial à végétation forestière) à<br />
l'intérieur de chacun desque1 étaient constitués des sous-groupes homogènes<br />
de relief et perméabilité, ces deux paramètres étant d6finis par rangement en<br />
classes arbitraires d'aptitude croissante RI à R6, Pl à P5. Ainsi rien que<br />
pour le coefficient de ruissellement décennal y avait-il près de 25 relations<br />
graphiques pour les seuls groupes de climats subdésertique et tropical.<br />
65
66<br />
Cette synthèse est actuellenient en cours de révision et d'extension<br />
à partir des infomtions collectées sur plus de 200 bassins représentatifs,<br />
en essayant d'expliciter numériquement les liaisons graphiques et en intmdui-<br />
sant tous les pardtres du milieu par le biais de régressions multiples ou de<br />
composantes principales. Le problème du choix des variables et de l'interdépen-<br />
dance des paramètres du milieu a nécessité des études préalables [3] .<br />
On peut également mentionnéfdeux autres exemples de synthèses régionales<br />
élaborées à partir d'informations issues cette fois des réseaux hydrométriques,<br />
après mise en forme de cefis-ci dans des monographies de bassins. Ces<br />
synthèses, ayant conduit B des noms hydrologiques pour aménagements hydrauliques<br />
régionaux, ont été réalisées en collaboration avec J. HERBAUD et G. GIRARD<br />
[4,5] , l'une au CESLRA état du nord-est du BRESIL, l'autre en ALSACE (France).<br />
Elles concernaient pour l'une tous les bassins de 100 à 10.000 h2, pour l'autre<br />
tous ceux de 15 à 3.000 km2.<br />
Une quantification aussi accentuée que possible a été effectuée pour<br />
la prise en compte des paramètres du milieu, ce qui a permis d'établir des<br />
abaques à plusieurs paramètres sans que l'on ait systématiquement numériser les<br />
liaisons.<br />
Le tableau suivant donne une vision globale des liaisons établies,<br />
le paramètre explicatif principal figurant toujours avant les paramètres<br />
secondaires en corrigeant l'effet e<br />
Les domines d'application de ces deux ensembles de liaisons régiona-<br />
les sont évidement très différents. Celui du Jaguaribe concerne un climat<br />
tropical austral semi-aride, à 600-1000 mn de pluie et terrains cristallins ou<br />
gréseux sous savane arbustive plus ou moins défrichée. Celui d'Alsace correspond<br />
au climat tempéré semi-continental B hiver net, avec 800 & 2500 m de pluie<br />
(effet modéré de la neige de 1000 à 1800 m d'altitude) sur terrains cristallins<br />
ou gréseux sous cultures ou f<strong>of</strong>lts à conifères dominants.<br />
On constate cependant certaines similitudes dans les paramètres<br />
explicatifs principaux (surface drainée, hauteur annuelle de pluie) des principales<br />
variables (écoulement annuel et crue décennale) ce qui rejoint et confirm<br />
globalement l'orientation prise par les awburs de formules. Mais les influences<br />
secondaires du milieu sont assez spécifiques : r8le de la pente et de la for&<br />
en Alsace, de la nature géologique du sous-sol au Brésil. Enfin, les coefficients<br />
ùes équations de liaison sont également spécifiques d'un domaine d'application.<br />
Alors que les formules appliquées sans discernement peuvent conduire<br />
L des estimations erronées de 100 et 200 $, l'utilisation des ensembles de<br />
liaisons régionales %ydrologie-enviromeIilenttr assure une précision de 20 à<br />
50 % dans les résultats.
: Variable expliquée : Paramètres explicatifs : Forme de la liaison :<br />
: A - ALSACE<br />
1. Ecoulement moyen<br />
annuel<br />
1.1. Hauteur annuelle de:<br />
précipitations<br />
1.2. Taux de forets :<br />
2. Ecart-type de . ' 2.1. Surface du bassin 1<br />
11 écoulement S<br />
annue 1<br />
4<br />
3. Débit spécifique : 3.1. Surface S<br />
-1 de crue : 3.2. Hauteur annuelle de:<br />
décennale Q precipitation<br />
3.3. Taux de for&<br />
4. Rapport des 4.1. Surface<br />
pointes de crue i<br />
centennale et<br />
décennale<br />
5. Part de l'écoule- : 5.1. Hauteur annuelle de:<br />
ment d'été dans : précipitation<br />
1' écoulement<br />
annue 1<br />
: 5.2. Taux de for€%<br />
67<br />
linéaire croissante :<br />
linéaire croissante<br />
se400 h2 : linéaire i<br />
décroissante :<br />
S>~OC b2 : linéaire<br />
constante :<br />
4,33<br />
Q = 1950. S<br />
linéaire croissante<br />
linéaire décroissante :<br />
en dessous d'un certain:<br />
seuil d'indice de pente:<br />
croissante<br />
linéaire croissante<br />
(liaison diff &ente sur:<br />
terrains cristallins et:<br />
sédimentaires)<br />
linéaire croissante si :<br />
s>75 km2<br />
: B - JAGUARIBE<br />
1. Ecoulement moyen I 1.1. Surface du bassin I L : A S-Oj1'<br />
annue 1 S<br />
i 1.2. Hauteur annuelle dei A = k P" avec n>l<br />
pr6cipitation P :<br />
1.3. Taux de terrains Linéaire décroissante<br />
sédimentaires<br />
(gres><br />
: 1.4. Degré de défriche- : linéaire croissante :<br />
ment<br />
i
68<br />
2. Variabilité de<br />
l'écoulement<br />
(rapport K entre<br />
une fréquence<br />
donnée et la<br />
moyenne )<br />
3. Débit maxjml<br />
spécifique de<br />
crue décennale Q<br />
4. Rapport de pointe<br />
entre crue<br />
annuelle et<br />
décennale<br />
: 2.1. Surface<br />
: 2.2. Ecoulement moyen<br />
: 3.1. Surface S<br />
:Q=BS<br />
: 3.2. Hauteur annuelle de: B croSt linéairement<br />
précipitation P : avecP<br />
: 3.3. Taux de terrains : linéaire décroissante<br />
sédimentaires<br />
(gres><br />
: 3.4. Fornie du chevelu : effet croissant si<br />
: radial, décroissant si<br />
: Ilen adte"<br />
: 4.1. Surface<br />
: croissante<br />
croissante<br />
4,484<br />
: croissante<br />
La généralisation de synthèses régionales de ce type pmttra non<br />
seulemnt de mieux répondre à toutes les demandes des utilisateurs de l'eau<br />
mais également d'améliorer les ensembles de liaison eux-mêmes en précisant les<br />
limites de leur champ d'application et de comprendre les causes qui font que<br />
crest tel paramètre plut8t que tel autre qui ici ou là explique mieux les<br />
caractéristiques hydrologique s.<br />
2. Transferi, analogique de l'information<br />
Lorsqu'un bassin versant non observé est situé dans une région dans<br />
laquelle une synthèse de l'information hydrologique disponible a conduit à un<br />
ensemble de liaisons du type de celles qui viennent d'@tre décrites, ou s'il<br />
est situé dans une région d'environnement comparable, l'estimation des princi-<br />
pales caractéristiques hydrologiques de ce bassin est chose aisée. I1 suffit<br />
d'en calculer les paramètres du milieu utilisés dans les liaisons hydrologie-<br />
environnenient et d'appliquer celle s-ci.
La plus grande prudence s'impose si l'on n'est pas sûr de l'hornogénéit6 de<br />
l'environnenient du bassin avec celui de la région étudiée et si les paramètres<br />
du bassin ont des valeurs extérieures au champ couvert par ceux-ci dans ia-<br />
dite région : toute extraplation hors du strict domaine d'application est<br />
risquée et ne peut etre effectuée qu'après une reconnaissance géomorphologique<br />
du bassin et de la région de référence.<br />
Beaucoup plus fréquemment le bassin non observé est situé dans une<br />
r6gion pour laquelle on ne possède pas de synthèse de Itinfomation hydrologique,<br />
laldite synthèse nécessitant de longs et délicats travaux d'analyse critique.<br />
Ainsi en France, en dehors de l'Alsace, aucune région n'a fait jusqu'ici l'objet<br />
d'une telle synthèse systématique. Certes, l'analyse de l'information hydrolo-<br />
gique n'est pas restée au point zéro et beaucoup d%ydrologues régionaux sont<br />
A I& intuitivement d'esthr des caractères hydrologiques de bassins non<br />
observés. Ce transfert analogique n'a l'inconvénient que de devoir etre refait<br />
?I chaque demande et d'&re dépendant de la qualité ou de l'intuition de<br />
l'hydrologue,donc d'@tre imprécis et inconsistant.<br />
Malgré ces défauts, il reste la seule méthode d'estimation en<br />
l'absence de liaisons régionales établies.<br />
Le processus opérationnel est le suivant :<br />
a) reconnaTtre le bassin concerné et analyser son environnenent<br />
physico-climatique,<br />
b) rechercher dans la région des bassins observés ayant des environnements<br />
aussi comparables que possible avec celui du bassin concerné,<br />
c) analyser les variables hydrologiques des bassins de comparaison<br />
ainsi sélectionnés,<br />
d) procéder au transfert analogique des variables hydrologiques des<br />
bassins de comparaison au bassin concerné.<br />
Ce transfert est la seule opération originale de ce processus. En<br />
réalité, il s'appuye implicitenient sur l'hypothese que les valeurs des variables<br />
hydrologiques vont évoluer des bassins de comparaison au bassin concerné CO~E<br />
elles évoluent dans les régions connues c'est-à-dire en fonction des parmètres<br />
du milieu. I1 s'agit donc jntuitivewnt de déceler les paradtres explicatifs<br />
principaux de l'hydrologie régionale,puis d'estimer le sens et l'intensité de<br />
leur action pour transférer les variables hydrologiques.<br />
69
70<br />
Si l'on peut réaliser cela sans trop de difficulté pour les paramètres classi-<br />
ques tels que la hauteur annuelle de précipitation et la surface, il n'en est<br />
pas de mhiie des autres facteurs (pente, perméabilité des terrains, cou~rt<br />
végétal ... ) au sujet desquels on peut simplement dire que leur effet sera<br />
croissant ou décroissant sans pouvoir préciser de combien. On limite les risques<br />
d'erreur en choisissant, si possible, des bassins de comparaison dont les fac-<br />
teurs principaux - surface, pluie annuelle - sont proches de ceux du bassin<br />
concerné, sachant que l'effet des facteurs secondaires est de l'ordre de<br />
grandeur de l'imprécision de l'estimation de la variable hydrologique d'après<br />
les facteurs principaux.<br />
Nous avons été anen6 à plusieurs reprises à réaliser des transferts<br />
analogiques de cette sorte pour des problems d'hydraulique agricole en France<br />
l'issue de très petits bassins versants ; par exemple :<br />
- barrage réservoir à l'issue d'un bassin de 300 km<br />
2<br />
pour un Syndicat<br />
intercommunal d'adduction d'eau (région du Centre Ouest de la France)<br />
- barrage en terre pour plan d'eau touristique l'issue d'un bassin<br />
de moins de 20 h2 (versant atlantique des Pyrénées).<br />
N'importe qui aurait pu utiliser à l'occasion une formule classique<br />
d'écoulement j le risque d'erreur aurait certainement &é énorme. Le transfert<br />
analogique évite l'erreur grossière bien qu'il ne perniette pas d'atteindre la<br />
précision d'emploi des Liaisons régionales hydrologie-milieu quand elles existent,mais<br />
à la condition qu'il soit effectué par un hydrologue doté d'un sens<br />
critique aigu, connaissant l'hydrologie régionale et capable de détecter les<br />
effets secondaires de l'environnement (géomorphologie, nature des sols . etc ... ).<br />
3. Conclusion<br />
Les abaques régionaux et le transfert analogique dtinformation permettent<br />
d'estimer bs principales variables hydrologiques d'un bassin non observé<br />
avec une précision qui peut satisfaire le planificateur ou l'utilisateur de<br />
l'eau qui procède<br />
un aménagement simple et modeste. Si l'aménagement est<br />
complexe - réservoir à but multiple, régularisation interannuelle - son coût<br />
s'accr<strong>of</strong>t et la precision requise de lthydrologue également. Les méthodes exps6e:<br />
ici deviennent alors caduques au-delà du stade de l'avant-projet OU des études<br />
préliminaires. I1 est alors indispensable de doter le site d'aménagemnt d'une<br />
station hydrométrique pour affiner les estimations. Cela est pwsque toujours<br />
possible car, entre les études préliminaires et le projet définitif, st6coulent<br />
bien souvent plusieurs années dont l'hydrologue pourra tirer pr<strong>of</strong>it s'il a été<br />
avisé en temps utile du problème et de la précision souhaitée.
Ref érence s bibliographiques<br />
1. RAS G. - i960 -<br />
de l'Ingénieur1' Coll. du Lab.<br />
Nat. d'Hydraulique, Eyrolles édit. Paris<br />
2. RODER J.A., AWRAY C. - 1965 - "Premiers essais d'étude générale<br />
du ruissellement sur les bassins expérimntaux et représentatifs<br />
d'Afrique tropicale" A.I.S.H. Symposium de Budapest - Public. no 66,<br />
vol. 1, pp. 12-38<br />
3.<br />
4.<br />
5.<br />
DUBRF;UIL P. - 1970 - '%e rôle des paramètres caractéristiques du<br />
milieu physique dans la synthèse et l'extrapolation des données<br />
hydrologique s recueillies sur bassins représentatif A o I. S. H a<br />
Colloque de Wellington, N. Zél., Public. no 96, vol. I, pp 583-590<br />
DUBREUU, P., GIRARD G., HERBAUD J - i968 - 'Nonographie hydrolo-<br />
gique du bassin du Jaguaribe" Coll. 'Némoires de l'ORSTOM1' no 28,<br />
21 x 27, 385 P.<br />
DUBREUIL P., HERBAUD J. - 1970 - Yontribution à la connaissance<br />
quantitative des modifications du régime hydrologique sous l'effet<br />
du taux de boisement à l'aide de deu exemples : le bass+ alsacien<br />
du Rhin, et le bassin du Jaguaribe (Brésil)" - S.H.F. XIeme<br />
journées de l'Hydraulique - Paris - Tome I, question III, rapport<br />
8.<br />
71
ABSTRACT<br />
ESTIMATING EVAPOTRANSPIRATION BY HOMOCLIMATES<br />
T.E.A. van Hylckama"<br />
Data for planning <strong>of</strong> water resources projects in arid or<br />
semi-arid climates are generally inadequate. It is here that<br />
the evapotranspiratia term plays an important role in the<br />
hydrologic cycle. Estimating this term by various empirical<br />
formulae using o<strong>nl</strong>y measured or estimared air tgmperatures<br />
and length <strong>of</strong> growing season <strong>of</strong>ten leads to erroneous results.<br />
It is better to use parameters, such as net radiation, humidity,<br />
wind speeds and rainfall characteristics, obtained from regions<br />
<strong>with</strong> climates similar to that <strong>of</strong> the region under study. Such<br />
homoclimatic regions have soils and vegetation <strong>of</strong> a comparable<br />
nature because both are largely a result <strong>of</strong> the climate itself.<br />
Examples <strong>of</strong> the transfer <strong>of</strong> parameters to determine evapotrans-<br />
piration by the use <strong>of</strong> homoclimates show that such monthly and<br />
yearly values are, at most, 10 percent larger or smaller than<br />
the measured ones, a significant improvement over empirically<br />
determined values which <strong>of</strong>ten are more than 30 percent <strong>of</strong>f.<br />
RESUME<br />
Dans les pays arides ou sub-arides, les données nécessaires<br />
2 l'établissement des projets hydrauliques sont presque toujours<br />
insuffisantes. C'est dans ces pays également que le terme éva-<br />
potranspiration tient un rôle important dans le cycle hydrolo-<br />
gique. Son estimation à l'aide de differentes formules empiri-<br />
ques, qui ne tiennent compte que de la température de l'air et<br />
de la durée de la saison culturale, conduit souvent à des re-<br />
sultats erronés. I1 est préférable d'utiliser les valeurs de<br />
parametres plus efficaces, comme le rayonnement net, l'humidi-<br />
té, la vitesse du vent et le régime pluviométrique, obtenues<br />
dans des régions ayant des climats analogues à celui de la ré-<br />
gion étudiée. On peut penser que des régions de climats voisins<br />
ont des caractéristiques de sols et de végétation voisines, car<br />
ces deux éléments sont en grande partie le résultat du climat<br />
lui-même. L'auteur présente des exemples de transfert de don-<br />
nées pour le calcul de l'évapotranspiration, basé sur ces consi<br />
derations. Les valeurs mensuelles et annuelles obtenues diffé-<br />
rent de moins de 10% des valeurs mesurées, alors que l'emploi<br />
de formules empiriques simplistes fournit des résultats que<br />
différent souvent de plus de 30%.<br />
>* Research Hydrologist, U.S.Geologica1 Survey<br />
Texas Tech University, Lubbock, Texas.
74<br />
NOMENCLATURE<br />
BV<br />
E<br />
Ea’ Eo<br />
H<br />
L<br />
*a<br />
da<br />
k<br />
P<br />
r<br />
r<br />
a<br />
r<br />
U<br />
a<br />
Z<br />
a<br />
z<br />
A<br />
Y<br />
N Y<br />
turbulent transfer coefficient (g cm-2 min-l mb-l) or<br />
(10 kg m-2 min-’ 0.1 kPa‘l).<br />
rate <strong>of</strong> evaporation (g cm-2 min’l, mm hr-1, or cm day-l).<br />
actual (or measured) rates and computed potential rates.<br />
net radiation (cal cm-2 min-l or 41867.4 j m-2 min-1).<br />
latent heat <strong>of</strong> vaporization (about 585 cal g-1 or 2.46 x 106 j kg-l).<br />
temperature <strong>of</strong> the air at height za (meters) (OC).<br />
saturation pressure deficit <strong>of</strong> air (mb or kPa + 10) = the difference<br />
between saturation and actual vapor pressure.<br />
Von Kármán coefficient taken as 0.41.<br />
ambient pressure, assumed constant for the sites discussed at 983 mb<br />
or 98.3 kPa.<br />
correlation coefficient.<br />
external resistance (sec cm-1).<br />
stomatal or canopy resistance (sec cm-1).<br />
windspeed at elevation z (cm min’l).<br />
a<br />
elevation above surface (m or cm).<br />
roughness parameter (cm).<br />
first derivative <strong>of</strong> saturation vapor pressure versus T (mb OC1).<br />
psychrometric constant (mb<br />
a dimensio<strong>nl</strong>ess number dependent upon T<br />
for p = 983 mb Aly = -0.32 + exp 0.045<br />
and p;
I INTRODUCTION<br />
Evapotranspiration and hence the potential evapotranspiration term plays an<br />
important role in the hydrologic cycle, becoming more important as the climate<br />
gets drier. Harrold 111 estimates that 75% <strong>of</strong> all the precipitation falling on<br />
the conterminous United States goes to evapotranspiration, but in arid lands this<br />
percentage can approach 100. Hence the estimate <strong>of</strong> potential evapotranspiration<br />
(E,) "is an essential requirement in the assessment <strong>of</strong> total available water,<br />
regional water balance and irrigation demand" 12 1.<br />
Although the parameters governing potential evapotranspiration are well<br />
known, in areas <strong>with</strong> inadequate hydrological data, the model required to estimate<br />
Eo quantitatively becomes difficult to construct. Often rather serious simpli-<br />
fications have been assumed at the cost <strong>of</strong> accuracy in the prediction <strong>of</strong> the<br />
information needed in water resources projects 131. Hounam 141 presents a few<br />
examples <strong>of</strong> "approximations and over-sirnpliïications <strong>with</strong> regards to procedures<br />
or data. For example vapor pressure <strong>of</strong> the bulk air is sometimes substituted<br />
for surface vapor pressure <strong>with</strong> considerable loss <strong>of</strong> reliability, net radiation<br />
may be estimated from sunshine or even cloudiness and air temperature, whilst<br />
the advective term, which can be quite significant in areal evaporation, is<br />
neglected in most methods."<br />
The desire to have a quantitative estimate <strong>of</strong> Eo regardless <strong>of</strong> the paucity<br />
<strong>of</strong> parameters has resulted in a plethora <strong>of</strong> empirical equations (= models) which<br />
are valid o<strong>nl</strong>y (if at all) for areas or regions where the empirical correlation<br />
between Eo and one or more parameters was established.<br />
Blaney-Criddle 15 I , who derived a formula for irrigated areas and Thornthwaite,<br />
whose equatiori is based on data from humid climates 16 l.<br />
75<br />
Two examples may suffice:<br />
Yet such equations are <strong>of</strong>ten used for estimating potential evapotranspira-<br />
tion when the information needed is inadequate. One has an idea <strong>of</strong> mean monthly<br />
temperatures and rainfall, either on the area under study itself or in the<br />
neighborhood, and determines Eo by the use <strong>of</strong> one or the other <strong>of</strong> these empirical<br />
equations.<br />
A fairly convincing example that such methods lead to unsatisfactory results<br />
is presented in figure 1. This graph, based on data presented and discussed by<br />
Cruff and Thompson 171, illustrates the very poor agreement between six different<br />
models used to estimate potential evapotranspiration. The reason for the discrepancies<br />
is to be found in the characteristics <strong>of</strong> the evapotranspiration<br />
phenomenon. Plants, and to a certain extent soils, respond to such inputs as<br />
radiation, vapor pressure and winds in a rapid and no<strong>nl</strong>inear fashion. Taking<br />
seasonal, monthly, or even weekly averages <strong>of</strong> such parameters and use those to<br />
estimate Eo leads necessarily to erroneous results. This is especially true<br />
when the advective term, combining wind speed and vapor pressure,becomes dominant.
76<br />
It seems that there is a better approach especially if homoclimatic maps,<br />
such as the ones being discussed below, are available. One searches for an<br />
area <strong>with</strong> a climate as similar as possible to the one <strong>of</strong> the area under study,<br />
but which has, in addition to the climatic characteristics, also data available<br />
that allow a computation <strong>of</strong> potential evapotranspiration <strong>with</strong> a satisfactory<br />
degree <strong>of</strong> accuracy.<br />
In the following we shall first discuss climate classification and review<br />
the literature on homoclimates, then show that the so-called combination method<br />
enable-s one to obtain very satisfactory estimations <strong>of</strong> potential evapotranspira-<br />
tion arid finally present an example <strong>of</strong> the proposed method.<br />
I I HOMOCL INATE S<br />
The earlier climatologists, such as Köppen Island Lang 191, classified<br />
climati,:; mostly by certain relationships between mean annual temperatures and<br />
rain€,'l. Later mean monthly values were taken into account and climates were<br />
Classified by the march <strong>of</strong> temperature and mean monthly rainfall throughout the<br />
year 1101. Still later aridity indices were used 1111 and in 1948 Thornthwaite<br />
introduced the concept <strong>of</strong> potential evapotranspiration. Climates now are <strong>of</strong>ten<br />
characterized by diagrams, combining graphs <strong>of</strong> temperature and precipitation, or<br />
evapotranspiration and precipitation [ 12 I . Stations having similar climatic<br />
diagrams are called homoclimes 1131. By extention the term has come to mean a<br />
"region climatically similar to another specified region" I14 I .<br />
Meigs 1151 was probably the first and maybe the o<strong>nl</strong>y one to use the word<br />
homoclimates in this sense. He used the 1948 Thornthwaite system and his maps<br />
<strong>of</strong> the homoclimates <strong>of</strong> arid lads are rather crude and on a scale (about 1 to 3Q<br />
x LO6) too small to be <strong>of</strong> much practical value.<br />
In Arid Zone Research XXI UNESCO 1161 presents a much more detailed set <strong>of</strong><br />
maps which are called bioclimatic maps because "the purpose---is to exhibit for<br />
a particular region a synthesis <strong>of</strong> the climatic factors <strong>of</strong> special importance<br />
to living creatures".<br />
subject in itself'' and mention that 26 meteorological elements can affect the<br />
climate, the environment and therefore, a particular animal or plant species 1171.<br />
They fully realize that, at the present time, insufficient information on all<br />
these items is available, but continue: "fortunately however there is one fact<br />
which is firmly established: namely that <strong>of</strong> all the elements in the environment<br />
those <strong>of</strong> most importance for living entities, plants in particular, are warmth<br />
and water".<br />
The authors say that "climate is an extremely complex<br />
U<strong>nl</strong>ike most other climate geographers, however, they were not<br />
content to use the ombrothermic diagrams alone, (ombros = rain), but used a<br />
xerothermic index which includes the effects <strong>of</strong> rainy days, days <strong>with</strong> mist an6<br />
dew, and allows for atmospheric humidity. This is an attractive compromise<br />
between the 26 elements and the use <strong>of</strong> o<strong>nl</strong>y monthly averages <strong>of</strong> temperature and<br />
precipitation. A day, for instance, <strong>with</strong> 5 centimeters <strong>of</strong> rainfall in one hour
has an effect vastly different from a day<br />
12-hour period. A day <strong>with</strong> an average <strong>of</strong><br />
same as one <strong>with</strong> the same temperature but<br />
humidity <strong>of</strong> 80 percent.<br />
<strong>with</strong> a 5 centimeter drizzle during a<br />
15OC under a dry clear sky is not the<br />
under clouds and <strong>with</strong> relative<br />
Using the diagrams and indices mentioned above, UNESCO I i6 I distinguishes<br />
33 different climates, ranging from true desert (for instance in Libia) to glacier<br />
climates such as in the high mountains <strong>of</strong> Austria. There are four maps <strong>of</strong> a<br />
scale <strong>of</strong> 1 to 10~000,000 <strong>of</strong> the dry regions in South Africa, South America, the<br />
southwest <strong>of</strong> North America and the southern parts <strong>of</strong> Australia. Two others on<br />
a scale <strong>of</strong> 1 toS,b00,000 cover an area from the AtlaIitic (long ?OoW) to points<br />
west <strong>of</strong> Karachi (Pakistan) (long 72OE) and from northern Italy (lat 25ON) to<br />
well into the Sahara and also covering the Arabian Peninsula (lat 14ON).<br />
Another source that, at times, could be used to find homoclimatic regions<br />
are the 15 volumes "World Survey <strong>of</strong> Climatology" 1181. However, due to the preferences<br />
<strong>of</strong> 11 sub-editors and numerous authors, the classifications are not<br />
consistent, ranging (for example in Volume 8) from the 1918 Köppen system to<br />
classifications according to dynamic concepts from the viewpoint <strong>of</strong> air-mass<br />
mixing and transformation I19 I .<br />
Terjung's maps <strong>of</strong> isanomalies 1201 might eventually help to improve homoclimatic<br />
maps. For the present time the author states: 'I--- the rather crude<br />
maps presented here and their cursory examination should not be considered<br />
definitive or qualitatively accurate".<br />
It is perhaps unfortunate that in none <strong>of</strong> these sources useful data on<br />
ioeasured potential evapotranspiration could be found, and an example <strong>of</strong> the<br />
applicability <strong>of</strong> the method <strong>of</strong> using homoclimates to estimate potential evapo-<br />
transpiration had to be taken from the semiarid southwestern parts <strong>of</strong> the United<br />
States.<br />
III THE COMBINATION CONCEPT AND SHE CANOPY RESISTANCE<br />
As mentioned earlier, longtime averages <strong>of</strong> meteorological parameters are<br />
inadequate to estimate potential evapotranspiration. The dynamic characteristics<br />
and the sensitivity <strong>of</strong> Eo to environmental parameters are most clearly demonstrated<br />
by the correlation method, aïso known as the eddy flux, eddy transfer or covar-<br />
iance method 14, 221.<br />
In this method measurements have to be taken <strong>with</strong> a<br />
frequency <strong>of</strong> a few seconds or less. Another method, not as sensitive to be sure,<br />
but quite suitable for our purpose it seems, is a method that combines the energy<br />
budget <strong>with</strong> a mass-transfer term 123, 24, 251. A complication arises when the<br />
plants, even under conditions <strong>of</strong> potential evapotranspiration, react to the<br />
environment and seem to control transpiration by means <strong>of</strong> opening or closing the<br />
stomata 126, 27, 281.
78<br />
It must, first <strong>of</strong> all, be shown that potential evapotranspiration can be<br />
estimated uite accurately by the use <strong>of</strong> the combination formul developed by<br />
Penman 1237 and improved by Monteith 129, 301 and van Bavel 125 . The latter,<br />
following the method first used by Penman 1311, derived the fol owing expression<br />
for the instantaneous evaporation rate:<br />
E = '/L<br />
B in this equation is defined as:<br />
V<br />
(A/y) H + L Bv da<br />
A/Y + 1<br />
cai cm-2 min-'<br />
Because expression (2) is based upon standard wind-pr<strong>of</strong>ile theory, van Bavel<br />
warns that it applies strictly to adiabatic conditions o<strong>nl</strong>y. But he points out<br />
that the combination model (1) has reduced the criticality <strong>of</strong> (2).<br />
This model predicts potential evapotranspiration from wet bare soil and from<br />
alfalfa covered soil <strong>with</strong> great accuracy over hourly periods, as was convincingly<br />
shown by van Bavel I25 1 . However, when used to compute evapotranspiration from a<br />
stand <strong>of</strong> saltcedar (Tamarix pentandra) , I32 1 there were fai-rly large discrepancies<br />
when computed and measured values were compared.<br />
discrepancies was immediately evident. It is a Weil-known fact that over tall<br />
vegetation, the roughness length (2,) varies <strong>with</strong> the wind speed, 133, 341 and a<br />
zero displacement length must be incorporated in equation (2). Alternatively,<br />
a modified roughness lengths can be used, and this was done in the present<br />
computations 135 I .<br />
One <strong>of</strong> the reasons for the<br />
With this modification the discrepancies are smaller but the<br />
results are still not very satisfactory. A typical example is given at the top<br />
<strong>of</strong> figure 2.<br />
Inspection <strong>of</strong> the data further showed that the largest deviations between<br />
computed and measured evapotranspiration occured under conditions <strong>of</strong> high wind<br />
speeds. This indicated that there could possibly be a stomatal or other type <strong>of</strong><br />
resistance inside the plants, but most likely a closing <strong>of</strong> the stomata under<br />
conditions <strong>of</strong> high evaporativity 1241. It is possible to measure diffusion<br />
resistance directly on most broadleaf plants by the use <strong>of</strong> one or other type <strong>of</strong><br />
porometer 136, 371. These instruments cannot be used on the small scale-like<br />
leaves <strong>of</strong> saltcedar which are less than 2 millimeters long and 1 millimeter wide.<br />
Xonteith (301, however, has shown how external and stomatal resistant-es can he<br />
estimated from microclimatological data. The combined energy budget and mass<br />
transfer equation then becomes:
in which the external resistance is:<br />
and the stomatal resistance:<br />
r a = (log, (z/zO)l2 / U k2<br />
r = (A/y + 1) (Eo/Ea - 1) x ra (5)<br />
A recomputation <strong>of</strong> potential evapotranspiration <strong>with</strong> equation (3) shows that a<br />
muili closer agreement between measured and computed evapotranspiration can be<br />
obtained.<br />
Notice that equation (5) contains the potential as well as the measured<br />
evapotranspiration, but once rs has been computed, it was found that it very<br />
highly correlated <strong>with</strong> wind speeds, and also (but less) <strong>with</strong> vapor pressure<br />
deficits. Using the resistances obtained from the equation (5) for one set <strong>of</strong><br />
data, potential evapotranspiration could then be computed for other sets <strong>of</strong> data<br />
and such values are plotted at the bottom <strong>of</strong> figure 2.<br />
IV AN EXAMPLE<br />
In order to demonstrate how the application <strong>of</strong> homoclimatic data may help to<br />
estimate Eo, a comparison will be made between evapotrenspiration rates measured<br />
in evapotranspirometers near Buckeye, Arizona (lat 33ON, long 113OW) <strong>with</strong> those<br />
computed <strong>with</strong> data available from a homoclimatic area about 50 kilometers to the<br />
east near Tempe, Arizona. Thus we pretend that the needed parameters at Buckeye<br />
were not available and we use those from a homoclimatic region.<br />
Hourly data for 3 days were available from technical reports issued by the<br />
U. S. <strong>Water</strong> Conservation Laboratory 138, 391. Figure 3 shows a typical example<br />
<strong>of</strong> hourly values measured at Buckeye, compared <strong>with</strong> those computed from the Tempe<br />
data. Figure 4 presents a comparison between two sets <strong>of</strong> computed data. Measured<br />
hourly data for 9 April were not available but, as figure 2 shows, the computed<br />
values are quite valid. Note, incidentally, that on this day in early spring<br />
there were a few hours <strong>with</strong> dew (negative E's). Not o<strong>nl</strong>y are the correlation<br />
coefficients very high (0.94 for figure 3 and 0.92 for figure 4) but the regression<br />
equations indicate nearly 1:l relationships. For data <strong>of</strong> figure 3 we have:<br />
E, = 0,19+0,86 Eo, and for figure 4: Ea = 0,02+0,94 Eo. The t values for both<br />
equations are well above the 1% confidence limits: respectively 6.3 and 4.0.<br />
Student's t value for the 1% limit and 22 degrees <strong>of</strong> freedom is 2.8, 1401.<br />
That the combination method is valid strictly for short-time data has already<br />
been mentioned. The fact is clearly shown by the data in table 1. In the left<br />
79
80<br />
two columns the sum <strong>of</strong> 24 hourly values <strong>of</strong> evapotranspiration rates is given as<br />
mi.llimiters per day. In the right two columns the rates are given as computed<br />
from mean daily averages <strong>of</strong> the parameters in equation (3). As can be seen the<br />
sum <strong>of</strong> the hourly values are not o<strong>nl</strong>y very close to another but also compare<br />
favorably <strong>with</strong> the measured values.<br />
The data available did not allow to extend the computations to months or<br />
years. However, the agreement on hourly and daily bases makes it very likely<br />
that, on monthly and yearly bases, even better agreement can be obtained.<br />
V CONCLUSIONS<br />
Serra 1411, remarks "climatology and hydrology are two very different<br />
disciplines: if the first is ãescriptive and 'static', the other studies---the<br />
'dynamics' <strong>of</strong> water and working methods used for the first will have little<br />
chance to fít the second.---The climatologist works <strong>with</strong> an 'average year'. To<br />
establish his---classification indices he will use the average temperature <strong>of</strong><br />
each <strong>of</strong> the twelve months <strong>of</strong> the year---. The hydrologist by contrast must<br />
follow from day to day---the living reality <strong>of</strong> a phenomenon." The phenomenon<br />
Serra refers to is,<strong>of</strong> course,the evapotranspiration.<br />
If however, the climatic classification is detailed enough and one has in<br />
one part <strong>of</strong> such an area sufficient information, quantitatively as well as quali-<br />
tatively, on the parameters that drive the evapotranspiration, then it is reason-<br />
able to assume that in other parts <strong>of</strong> this homoclimate the same data are applica-<br />
ble, at least <strong>with</strong>in acceptable limits. It might <strong>of</strong> course be necessary (and it<br />
is nearly always possible) to correct for latitude, elevation and exposure.<br />
What we are dealing <strong>with</strong> seems to be an integration between climate and<br />
meteorology, something that Kisiel 1421 had in mind when he wrote: "The future<br />
<strong>of</strong> hydrology rests on our ability and willingness to undertake the last integrative<br />
effort on a continuing and adaptable basis. This effort is particularly<br />
urgent if one accepts the thesis that each watershed or basin is a law unto<br />
itself. Transferability <strong>of</strong> laboratory knowledge to the field and <strong>of</strong> knowledge<br />
from one watershed to another or from one climate to another rests inexplicably<br />
on our ability to provide a mathematical foundation to the cycle <strong>of</strong> model building<br />
and its parts.''<br />
The present paper shows that, in principle, the use <strong>of</strong> homoclimates is<br />
possible and reliable for effectively estimating evapotranspiration rates <strong>with</strong><br />
the model presented above. The difficulty lies in the fact that there are so<br />
few homoclimatic maps and those few do not always use the best method <strong>of</strong> classi-<br />
fying the climates. There obviously is a great need for more and more reliable<br />
homoclimatic maps. These maps should show the locations <strong>of</strong> stations where com-<br />
plete sets <strong>of</strong> microclimatological data can be obtained for estimating the poten-<br />
tial evapotranspiration <strong>with</strong> a desirable degree <strong>of</strong> accuracy.
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van Hylckama, T. E. A., (1970b). <strong>Water</strong> use by saltcedar, <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong><br />
Research, 6, pp. 728-735.<br />
Baumgartner, A., (1956). Untersuchungen Uber den WBrme- und Wascerhaushalt<br />
eines jungen Waldes. Ber. Deutscher. Wetterdienstes, 5(28), pp. 1-53.<br />
Tajchman, S., (1967). Energie- und Wasserhaushalt verschiedener Pflanzenbest-<br />
Bnde bei Munchen. Univ. Muchen, Meteorol. Inst., Wiss. Mitt., 12, pp. 1-94.<br />
van Hylckama, T. E. A., (1970a). Winds over saltcedar, Agric. Meteorol.,<br />
7, pp. 217-233.<br />
Byrne, G. F., Rose, C. W., & Slatyer, R. O., (1970).<br />
porometer, Agr. Meteorol., 7, pp. 39-44.<br />
An aspirated diffusion<br />
Stiles, W., (1970). A diffusive resistance porometer for field use, Jour.<br />
Applied Ecology, 7, pp. 617-622.<br />
Conaway, J., & van Bavel, C. H. M., (1966). Remote measurement <strong>of</strong> surface<br />
temperature and its application to energy balance and evaporation studies<br />
<strong>of</strong> bare soil surfaces. Tech. Rep. U. S. Army Electronics Conmiand 2-67P-1.<br />
van Bavel, C. H. M., (1967). Surface energy balance <strong>of</strong> bare soil as<br />
influenced by wetting and drying. Tech. Rept. U. S. Army Electronics Conmiand<br />
2-67P-2.
40. Fisher, R. A., & Yates, F., (1943). Statistical tables for biological,<br />
agricultural and medical research. Oliver and Boyd Ltd., London, table ïïI.<br />
41. Serra, P. L., (1954). Le controle hydrologique d'un bassin versant, in Soc.<br />
Hydrotechnique de France, Pluie, Evaporation, Filtration et Ecoulement,<br />
Compte Rendu des Troisièmes Jourdes de l'Hydraulique, pp. 29-35.<br />
42. Kisiel, C. C., (1969). Mathematical methodology in hydrology, in Chow, V. T.<br />
(Dir.), The progress <strong>of</strong> hydrology, Proc. <strong>of</strong> First Internat. Seminar for Hydrol.<br />
Pr<strong>of</strong>essors, Urbana, Illinois, pp. 362-399.<br />
83
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84
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Fig. 4<br />
Comparison <strong>of</strong> 24 hourly values <strong>of</strong> evapotranspiration<br />
computed <strong>with</strong> equation (5) using Buckeye data (Y> and<br />
Tempe data CX), (9 April '66).<br />
87
88<br />
TABLE 1. <strong>Water</strong> use by saltcedar in millimeters per day<br />
Sum <strong>of</strong> 24 Computed from<br />
hourly values Measured mean daily values<br />
Dates Tempe data Buckeye data Buckeye* Tempe data Buckeye data<br />
-<br />
1966<br />
9 April 11.0 11.5 10.4 14.9 14.4<br />
28 April 14.6 15.6 15.4 18.7 18.2<br />
3 May 13.9 12.2 13.5 17.0 15.8<br />
*The lysimeters at Tempe were allowed to dry out so no potential evapotranspira-<br />
tion data were available.
PLUVIOMETRIC ZONES AND THE CRITERIA TO DEFINE THEIR<br />
ABSTRACT<br />
BOUNDARIES FOR REGIONS WITH SCARCE DATA<br />
by<br />
García-Agreda R., Rasulo G., Viparelli R.<br />
A zone is defined "pluviometric zone" if the parameters <strong>of</strong><br />
the rainfall distribution function assume the same value in all<br />
<strong>of</strong> its points, or vary <strong>with</strong> continuity from one point to another<br />
according to their location.<br />
Consequently, if it is necessary to estimate the rainfall<br />
distribution at a point, o<strong>nl</strong>y the information derived from<br />
pluviometers <strong>of</strong> the same pluviometric zone is useful.<br />
By refering particularly to regions in which there is a<br />
scarcity <strong>of</strong> data, the authors point out that, in order to define<br />
the boundaries <strong>of</strong> the pluviometric zone pertaining to a given<br />
point, it is necessary preliminarly to formulate a working<br />
hypothesis based on climatic maps in which also the geomorphology,<br />
soils and vegetation are considered.<br />
RESUME<br />
Une zone est défine "zone pluviométrique" si les paramètres<br />
de la loi de probabilité des pluies ont la même valeur dans<br />
toute la région ou ils varient d'une façon continue d'un point<br />
à l'autre.<br />
Par conséquence, s'il faut estimer la répartition statisti-<br />
que des pluies en un point, on peut utiliser seulement les in-<br />
formations tirées des pluviomètres disposés dans la même zone<br />
pluviométrique.<br />
En particulier, en se rapportant aux régions pour lesquel-<br />
les on a peu de données, les auteurs soulignent que, dans le<br />
but de définir les lignes de contour de la zone pluviométrique<br />
qui comprend 1.e point considéré, il fau-t d'abord formuler une<br />
hypothèse de travail qui se base sur des cartes climatologiques<br />
dans lesquelles on considère aussi la géomorphologie, les sols<br />
et la végétation.
90<br />
Symbols<br />
1: Let us indicate by:<br />
- h : the annual rainfall depth at any point;<br />
- y : the log <strong>of</strong> h;<br />
- O{h} and {y} : the distribution functions <strong>of</strong> h and y;<br />
- MChl; 0th) and y{h} = m:<br />
aih}<br />
respectively the mean, the<br />
standard deviation and the coefficient <strong>of</strong> variation <strong>of</strong> the<br />
probability distribution <strong>of</strong> h;<br />
- M {y}, oiy} and 02{y): respectively the mean, the stan-<br />
dard deviation and the variance <strong>of</strong> the probability distribution<br />
<strong>of</strong> y.<br />
Let us also indicate by:<br />
- hi <strong>with</strong> 1 c i < n: the n values <strong>of</strong> h registered during<br />
the observation period;<br />
- yi <strong>with</strong> 1 < i c n: the n values taken by y = log h;<br />
- h, s{h} and gCh}: respectively the estimates <strong>of</strong> MIh},<br />
o{h} and yth};<br />
- 7, sty} and s’{y): respectively the estimates <strong>of</strong> MCy},<br />
aiy} and 02{y};<br />
- 71 and 72, Sf{y} and s;{y): respectively the confidence<br />
limits <strong>of</strong> and s‘{y] <strong>with</strong> a tollerance level <strong>of</strong> 95%;<br />
Assume h is distributed <strong>with</strong> a good approximation according<br />
to the log-normal law 113 [2].<br />
Consequently, y is distributed according to the normal law<br />
the parameters M{y} and o{y} which characterize its distribution<br />
are connected to M{h} and y{h} by the equation:<br />
and<br />
equations:<br />
By estimating the parameters 7 and s2{h} by means <strong>of</strong>
and<br />
n<br />
I-<br />
t Yi<br />
n<br />
n<br />
n - 1<br />
the confidence limits <strong>of</strong> 7 and s2{hl could be expressed by means<br />
<strong>of</strong> ecuations:<br />
in which t0,025 and ~0,025, to,g75 and ~0,975 are respectively<br />
the percentiles <strong>of</strong> t and x corresponding to the probability 0,025<br />
and 0,975.<br />
In t roduc ti on<br />
(3)<br />
2: From direct measurements taken at each single point A,<br />
B ... <strong>of</strong> a region, it is possible to deduce o<strong>nl</strong>y estimates <strong>of</strong><br />
the values that M{h} and y{h) assume at the said points.<br />
Takin into account the fact the said estimates could<br />
deviate from the real value due to sampling errors and that in<br />
technical problems the average rainfall depth distribution on<br />
given surface must be known, it is necessary:<br />
a) to improve the said estimates by decreasing the uncer-<br />
tainty <strong>with</strong> which they were determined;<br />
b) to estimate M{h) and y{h} and consequently the annual<br />
rainfall depth that occurs <strong>with</strong> a given probability, even at<br />
points where no pluviometers had been installed.<br />
The two problems become greater in regions where o<strong>nl</strong>y a<br />
few measuring stations are available and for most <strong>of</strong> them <strong>with</strong><br />
a few years <strong>of</strong> observation.<br />
91
92<br />
Hydrological Similitude Criteria and Pluviometric Zones<br />
3: The rainfall depth registered, at a generic point A, for<br />
a given event occurs due to the evolution <strong>of</strong> meteorological<br />
conditions that have their repercussions also on the rainfall<br />
depths that occur in the same event in a more or less extended<br />
zone around A. As it is known, for different environmental<br />
conditions, such as those connected <strong>with</strong> the morphology <strong>of</strong> the<br />
zone, the rainfall depth that occurs during the same event in<br />
different points, could be highly different; however, in passing<br />
from one event to another, at least normally, the said environ-<br />
mental conditions excercise a differential action that acts<br />
always in the same direction.<br />
Finally, the rainfall depths h registered at a point A, are<br />
affected both by meteorological factors common to the entire zone<br />
and acting <strong>with</strong> a variable intensity from one rainfall event to<br />
another; and by the environmental factors that are invariables in<br />
time, but, normally, variable from one point to another,. The<br />
deviations that are observed among the values that h assumes in A,<br />
year after year, depend upon the variability in time <strong>of</strong> the<br />
meteorological factors; while the deviations that are noticed<br />
among the values that h assumes, <strong>with</strong> the same probability,<br />
respectively in A and in each <strong>of</strong> the other points <strong>of</strong> the zone<br />
around A, depend upon the variability <strong>of</strong> environmental conditions.<br />
Consequently, if in a zone characterized by common meteoro-<br />
logical factors k pluviometers are installed, in agreement <strong>with</strong><br />
what has been said by other authors [l), it is safe to suppose<br />
that in passing from one pluviometer to another, the variation<br />
coefficient y{h} remains constant.<br />
Therefore, ify{h} is constant, it derives, from equation<br />
(11, that even 02{y} remains constant.<br />
At this point, we will say that a greater number <strong>of</strong> pluviom<br />
eters belong to the same pluviometric zone if the variance assumes<br />
a common value u “Cy}.<br />
As it is known, the definition <strong>of</strong> a pluviometric zone and<br />
its connected hypothesis are to be considered in a statistical<br />
way.
Precisely, it cannot be excluded that at each single point<br />
the variance 02iy} could differ from the value assumed as<br />
the value to characterize the zone; however, due to the fact that<br />
for each single point o<strong>nl</strong>y an estirnate s2{y] <strong>of</strong> 02{y) could be<br />
had it is evident that:<br />
1) the deviation s2{y} - ~''{y), that is observed for single<br />
point between s2{yl and o''{yI, could be caused partly, s*{yI -<br />
- 02{y), by a sampling error (a non-significant part <strong>of</strong> the<br />
deviation between s2{y} and o"{y) and partly, 02{y] - ot2{y), by<br />
the real difference between 02{y} and or2{y) (the significant<br />
part 1 ;<br />
2) that, however, the deviation significant part is always<br />
modest and such that s'{y] - a"{y} s2{y} - 02{yl t o'íy} -<br />
- C I ~ ~ would I ~ ] range around values that s'{y) - 02{y} would<br />
assume.<br />
4: To determine the pluviometric zo'nes that lie a given<br />
region, the methodology to follow could be divided in theree<br />
phases.<br />
An attemp to formulate a working hypothesis delimiting the<br />
single zones is made during the first phase.<br />
By deducing the best estimate <strong>of</strong> s'2{y} <strong>of</strong> the value that<br />
the variance o'2{y) assumes in all the points <strong>of</strong> the zone during<br />
the second phase, the working hypothesis is formulated.<br />
In doing this, the different significance that the series<br />
<strong>of</strong> data, obtained in each pluviometer <strong>of</strong> the zone, have, must be<br />
taken into account depending on the number <strong>of</strong> a data that appears<br />
in each one <strong>of</strong> them.<br />
Particularly, if k pluviometers lie in the zone, having<br />
indicated by s:{y}, <strong>with</strong> r being variable from 1 to k, the<br />
variance estimated for each single pluviometer from the nr data<br />
registered in it, the best estimate <strong>of</strong> s''{y} could be obtained<br />
by means <strong>of</strong> equation:<br />
93
94<br />
In the third phase, finally, by assuming that ot2{y}=<br />
= s'2(y) we proceed on to the pro<strong>of</strong> <strong>of</strong> the working hypothesis<br />
thus formulated, checking by means <strong>of</strong> equation (6) that the<br />
single estimates differ from the single value <strong>with</strong> differences<br />
that could be attributed solely to sampling errors.<br />
Naturally, in this process we have supposed that data<br />
collected in each pluviometer <strong>of</strong> the zone are not correlated<br />
among themselves [3].<br />
5: As an example, let us refer to Morocco<br />
In fig. 1, the assumed working hypothesis<br />
<strong>of</strong> the region in pluviometric zones is reported<br />
<strong>of</strong> the division<br />
In fig. 2, shows for some zones a statistical control test<br />
<strong>of</strong> the validity <strong>of</strong> the working hypothesis.<br />
As it can be observed, the pro<strong>of</strong> has been carried out by<br />
reporting on a diagram, whose ordinates represent the values <strong>of</strong><br />
s2{y} and whose abscissas represent the number n <strong>of</strong> observation<br />
years :<br />
a) the estimate st2{y} that characterizes the zone;<br />
b) the range <strong>of</strong> confidence delimited by the two curves<br />
s: (n) and s', (n) corresponding to the said value <strong>of</strong> s'2{y} or,<br />
briefly, the confidence band <strong>of</strong> s2{y);<br />
<strong>of</strong> the zone.<br />
c) the point (n, s2{y}) corresponding to each pluviometer<br />
As it can be observed from the diagrams, as a pro<strong>of</strong> <strong>of</strong> the<br />
assumed working hypothesis, the points lie <strong>with</strong>in the confidence<br />
bands.
Adaptability <strong>of</strong> the Climatic Charts for the delimitations <strong>of</strong><br />
Pluviometric Zones.<br />
6: In fig. 3 are reported, <strong>with</strong> different simbols, the<br />
division <strong>of</strong> Morocco in pluviometric zones, as indicated<br />
previously, and the division in climatic zones as it deducted<br />
from the Meigs Chart [4].<br />
As it can be observed, if the arid zones corresponding to<br />
the Massif <strong>of</strong> Atlas, labeled by the indez .(1), and the semiarid<br />
zone between Anti Atlas and Hamada du Dra, labeled by the index<br />
(21, are excluded, a noticeable correspondence exist between the<br />
pluviometric zones and the climatic zones reported by Meigs.<br />
On the other hand, the disagreements mentioned previously<br />
could be easily explained if we consider that climatic charts<br />
are deduced by taking also into account geomorphology, the soil<br />
and the vegetation.<br />
In fact, for the zone (11, the lack <strong>of</strong> vegetation that has<br />
induced Meigs to define it arid, could be attributed not to fewer<br />
precipitations but to the presence <strong>of</strong> a calcareous massif that<br />
prevents the formation <strong>of</strong> a vegetative soil.<br />
On the other hand, for the zone (2) constituted by a large<br />
depression delimited by the Chain <strong>of</strong> the Massif <strong>of</strong> Atlas on one<br />
side and by Hamada du Dra on the other side, the presence <strong>of</strong><br />
vegetation that has induced Meigs to define it as smiarid, could<br />
be attributed not to waters caused by rain that falls directly<br />
on the zone, but to waters that rush there from nearby zones.<br />
Pluviometric zones <strong>of</strong> Bolivia and Saudi Arabia<br />
I: As it has been said in the previous paragraph 6, to<br />
formulate working hypothesis regarding the delimitations <strong>of</strong><br />
pluviometric zones for regions where o<strong>nl</strong>y few pluviometers are<br />
functioning and, moreover , in most cases, functioning solely for<br />
a short observation period, it could be useful to use climatic<br />
charts.<br />
95
96<br />
Thus, to define the pluviometry <strong>of</strong> Bolivia and sone zones<br />
<strong>of</strong> Saudi Arabia, we assumed the working hypothesis that the<br />
pluviometric zones coincide <strong>with</strong> the climatic zones (figs. 4<br />
and 5).<br />
Particularly, for Bolivia we used the chart published by<br />
UNESCO for the arid and semiarid zones [4], and the Trewartha<br />
and Robinson chart for the humid and sub-humid zones [5]. For<br />
Saudi Arabia o<strong>nl</strong>y the chart published by UNESCO was considered<br />
*<br />
phase :<br />
As is shown in the above mentioned figures, in the first<br />
O<strong>nl</strong>y pluviometers functioning for a long period <strong>of</strong> obser-<br />
vation have been considered;<br />
the estimates s2{y} have been deduced from the data<br />
collected in each zone;<br />
the estimates have been divided in groups and the location<br />
<strong>of</strong> each pluviometer has been labeled <strong>with</strong> a different symbol<br />
according to where s2{y} lies.<br />
From the figures we observe:<br />
1) in passing from one to the other climatic zone, the<br />
values <strong>of</strong> s2{y} lie in different groups;<br />
2) if in a zone more pluviometers are functioning, the<br />
corresponding values <strong>of</strong> s'{y] lie, either in the same or conti-<br />
guous groups.<br />
Consequently, by taking into account the definition given<br />
<strong>of</strong> the zones, it is safe to assume the hypothesis that the<br />
climatic zones coincide <strong>with</strong> the pluviometric zones even for the<br />
said regions.<br />
Consequently, in the second phase <strong>of</strong> elaborations, still<br />
taking into account the data relative to pluviometers functioning<br />
for a long period <strong>of</strong> observation, the working hypothesis for each
single zone has been formulated, by assuming as estimate st2{yl<br />
<strong>of</strong> the variation ot2{y} that characterizes the zone, the value<br />
deduced by means <strong>of</strong> equation (7).<br />
Finally, inthe third phase, by using also the data fur-<br />
nished by the pluviometers functioning for a shorter observation<br />
period, to verify the working hypothesis, it was checked that<br />
the deviations between, st2{y} and the value s2{y} deduced for<br />
each pluviometer could be attributed so,lely to sampling errors.<br />
In both cases, from the few data available, the hypothesis<br />
that the pluviometric zones coincide <strong>with</strong> the climatic zones is<br />
sufficiently ascerIained.<br />
Pluviometric Sub-zones<br />
8: As it has been stated by other authors [l] whenever the<br />
estimates <strong>of</strong> M{h} deduced for each pluviometer from the data<br />
registered during the observation period, it has been possible<br />
to distinguish, in each zone, one or more sub-zones.<br />
In each <strong>of</strong> the said sub-zones, when passing from one point<br />
to another, the values <strong>of</strong> the estimates fi either show that:<br />
a) they scatter around a single value M{h}, or that<br />
b) they scatter around values <strong>of</strong> M(h3 that vary in function<br />
<strong>of</strong> either one <strong>of</strong> the parameters which represent the morphology<br />
<strong>of</strong> the sub-zone (particularly, in the cases considered, the land<br />
elevation (2)).<br />
In the first case, each single pluviometric sub-zone has<br />
been characterized by indicating the value fit taken by arithmetic<br />
average <strong>of</strong> fi corresponding to the single pluviometers. In the<br />
second case, each individual sub-zone has been characterized by<br />
specifying the variation law <strong>of</strong> M{h} as function <strong>of</strong> z and by<br />
indicating the values 6' and that according to the<br />
(1)<br />
(2)<br />
mentioned variation law correspond to the highest and lowest<br />
elevation <strong>of</strong> the sub-zone pluviometers.<br />
97
98<br />
paper:<br />
In the fig. 6 are reported on a diagram on logarithmic<br />
a) the points (6, g'{h}) which represent the pluviometric<br />
sub-zones, for the first case;<br />
b) the intervals delimited by the points (hl (1) Y g'(h1)<br />
and (E1(*), g'{h]) for the second case.<br />
As it hast been found by other authors (61, when passing<br />
from one region to another, and for each region from one pluvio~<br />
etric zone to another, the variability increases as the average<br />
annual rainfall decreases.<br />
Instead, as it has been said previously, in each single<br />
pluviometric zone the variability expressed by means <strong>of</strong> ylh} or<br />
u2{y} is completely independent from an eventual variability <strong>of</strong><br />
the average rainfall.
RE FE RCN C ES<br />
[l] VIPARELLI C. : "Idrologia applicata all'ingegneria".<br />
Parte II Fondazione Politecnica del<br />
Mezzogiorno d'Italia, Napoli (1965).<br />
[2] . MARKOVIC R.D. : "Probability Functions <strong>of</strong> best fit to<br />
Distributions <strong>of</strong> annual Precipitation<br />
and Run<strong>of</strong>f".<br />
<strong>Hydrology</strong> papers, Colorado State Univer-<br />
sity Fort Collins, Colorado (Aug. 1965).<br />
[3] PENTA A., ROSSI F.: "Objective Criteria to declare a<br />
Series <strong>of</strong> Data sufficient for technical<br />
Purposesff.<br />
Simposio sobre proyectos de recursos hi-<br />
dráulicos con datos insuficientes. Ma-<br />
drid (1973).<br />
[4] CHOW W.T.: "Handbook <strong>of</strong> Applied <strong>Hydrology</strong>".<br />
Mc Gram-Hill Book Company. Pg. 24-3 e seg.<br />
(1964).<br />
[5] TREWARTHA G.T.; ROBINSON A.H. , HAMMOND E.H.: "Elements <strong>of</strong><br />
Ge o graph y It .<br />
Mc Gram-Hill. Book Company (1967).<br />
[6] HAZEN, ALLEN,: "Variation in annual rainfall".<br />
Eng. News, vol. 75 n. 1 (1916).<br />
The pluviometric data used in this paper have been taken from:<br />
- Institut Scientifique Chérifien du Maroc.<br />
- Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología de Bolivia.<br />
- Empresa Nacional de Electricidad de Bolivia.<br />
- Ministery <strong>of</strong> Agriculture and <strong>Water</strong> <strong>of</strong> Saudi Arabian Kingdon.<br />
99
I<br />
l<br />
i<br />
I<br />
l<br />
PLWIO?,ETRIC ZONES AND TIE CRITWIA TO DEYIN2 TRTIR EOiZIDARJ2S ?CI!?<br />
ZEGIONS ::'ITH SCARCE DATA<br />
by<br />
Garcia-Agreda R., Rasulo G., Viparel?.i 9.<br />
Fig. 2<br />
N F<br />
8 8<br />
C3<br />
N O<br />
m<br />
9<br />
h<br />
- x<br />
U<br />
c<br />
x<br />
m
y<br />
Garcia-Agreda R., Rasulo G., Viparelli R.<br />
PLLT'IOXIX'RIC ZOPJ'XS AND TFIE CXITWIA TO DEFINE THEIR BOUNDARIES FOR<br />
EEGIONS WITH SCARCE DAIA<br />
-.<br />
uic. 2<br />
-- __ I<br />
rP<br />
M<br />
l<br />
m<br />
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m m m<br />
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;;:<br />
m *<br />
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8<br />
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68 64 60<br />
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Fig. 4<br />
FLLWIO?3TTiIC ZONES hi TIE3 CRITERIA TO DEFINE THEIR BOUNDARIES FOR<br />
REGIONS WITH SCARCE DATA<br />
Garcia-Agreda R., Resulo G., Viparelli R.<br />
by<br />
F--..<br />
U 11111 Km aiici<br />
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24
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Garcia-Agreda R., Rasulo G., Viparelli R.<br />
PLLVIOEETSIC zoms urn THE CRITERIA TO DEFINE THEIR BOUNDARIES BOR<br />
REGIONS WITH SCARCE DATA<br />
O
ABSTRACT<br />
ESTIMATION DES ETIAGES DE BASSINS NON EQUIPES<br />
par G.R. OBERLINB, G.C. GALEA* et J.T. TONI**<br />
The first data collected on the different creeks <strong>of</strong> the Or-<br />
geval representative watershed (104 km2), showed a great disparity<br />
between low water specific discharges. This disparity subsisted<br />
after adjustement <strong>of</strong> man influences (such as pumping and throws).<br />
The differences contrasted <strong>with</strong> the visible simplicity and homo-<br />
geneity <strong>of</strong> the watershed surface and <strong>with</strong> the supposed favourable<br />
outline <strong>of</strong> the ground water catchment. That is to say, even <strong>with</strong><br />
these propitious conditions in appraising the hydrological charac-<br />
teristics (good network and problem seemingly easy), the represen-<br />
tativity, i.e. the extrapolation <strong>of</strong> the results to similar<br />
neeghbouring creeks, was found at fault. To resolve this point<br />
<strong>with</strong>out additive equipment, gauging rounds were undertaken during<br />
low water seasons on a great number <strong>of</strong> creeks. The comparison <strong>of</strong><br />
these groups <strong>of</strong> instantaneous discharges, measured on the same day<br />
at different places, ser <strong>of</strong>f the behaviour <strong>of</strong> each watershed. In<br />
some cases, the analyses <strong>of</strong> these observed differences allowed the<br />
elaboration <strong>of</strong> general rules and led to pratica1 conclusiones, <strong>of</strong>-<br />
ten quantitative. As some sections <strong>of</strong> the measured creeks belonged<br />
to permanent network, and some other conditions having been satis-<br />
fied (especially: a great enough number <strong>of</strong> measurements during<br />
each low water season), the unknown characteristics <strong>of</strong> the unex-<br />
plored creeks have been evaluated from these <strong>of</strong> the permanent<br />
stations.<br />
RESUME<br />
Les premieres mesures effectuées sur les divers sous-bassins<br />
constituant le bassin représentatif de l'0rgeval (104 km'), ont<br />
fait entrevoir de trss importantes différences de débits spécifi-<br />
ques d'étiage. Celles-ci subsistaient après correction des in-<br />
fluences humaines (pompages et rejets). Ces différences contras-<br />
taient avec la simplicité et l'homogénéité apparentes du bassin<br />
en matière de caractéristiques physiques et avec 1 'aspect favora-<br />
ble de son hydrogéologie. Autrement dit, même dans ces conditions<br />
optimales d'estimation de caractéristiques hydrologiques (bon<br />
équipement de mesure et probleme a priori simple), la représenta-<br />
tivité, c'est-à-dire l'extrapolation de résultats aux bassins<br />
voisins et semblables, était mise en échec. Pour résoudre le pro-<br />
bleme sans équipements nouveaux, des campagnes de mesures volan-<br />
tes d'étiage ont été réalisées sur un certain nombre de cours<br />
d'eau. La comparaison de ces ensembles de débits instantanés, me-<br />
surés simultanément en divers lieux, a précisé les différences de<br />
comportement des bassins. Dans certains cas, l'analyse de ces dif-<br />
férences a pu suivre des règles générales et conduire à des con-<br />
clusions dont certaines étaient quantifiables. Comme plusieurs<br />
stations permanentes (équipées) étaient incluses dans ces cam-<br />
pagnes, et que certaines conditionsavaient été satisfaites (en<br />
particulier: un .?ombre suffisant de jaugeages au cours d'une<br />
même saison d'étiage), les caractéristiques inconnues des bassins<br />
non équipés ont alors pu être estimées.<br />
$; C.T.G.R.E.F., Parc de Tourvoie, F - 92160 ANTONY.<br />
*J. ,. ,. Direction Départementale de l'Agriculture. PARAKOU (Dahomey)
104<br />
INTRODUCTION<br />
Dans l'étude des basses eaux, en hydrologie, on se heurte toujours<br />
à une première difficulté concernant la qualité des données de débits de basses<br />
eaux. Cette difficulté résiste remarquablement bien aux dliorations apportées<br />
au fonctionnement des stations hydrométriques, même bien équipées. Sur les<br />
bassins versants d' investigation de l'orgeval, par exemple (surfaces variant<br />
de 7 ?i 104 km2), malgré d'efficaces et importants travaux (11, 18 procédure<br />
habituelle de mesure des hauteurs d'eau, puis de traduction nhauteur - débit"<br />
n'est pas toujours performante en très basses eaux.<br />
Une solution très généralement utilisée consiste alors à effectuer un<br />
grand nombre de mesures instantanées de débit (Jaugeages) et h Interpoler ent-e<br />
ces mesures toutes les fois OU cela est possible, c'est-à-dire lorsque la dé-<br />
crue n'est pas influencée par une crue, si minime solt-elle. Dans cette procédure,<br />
l'équipement de la station hydrométrique (échelle; iimnigraphe. etc.. . )<br />
n'est guère utilisé, sinon de façon qualitative fi]. Par généralisation de la<br />
méthode on peut envisager de réaliser ces campagnes de jaugeages sur des cours<br />
d'eau réellement non équipés et en espérer des résultats autres que ponctuels.<br />
1. RESEAU DE MESURES EPISODIQUES D'ETIAGES<br />
Les premières mesures conventionneiìes effectuées en lgtj2 SUT les 4<br />
stations équipées du bassin de l'orgeval (Minj stère de l'Agriculture, France)<br />
s'étaient évidemment heurtées awc difficultés hydrométriques citées plus<br />
haut. De plus, elles avaient décelé de très grandes différences dans les dé-<br />
bits spécifiques [g, I1 était difficile de savoir si ces différences avaient<br />
une origine hydroaéologique (hétérogénéité dans la répartition des réservoirs<br />
souterrains) ou étaient simplement dues aux aléas des Jaugeages, voire des<br />
influences humalnes (pompages, re Jets, retenues, etc.. . ). A priori, l'excep-<br />
tionnelle homogénéité du bassin en matière de géologie et de formationsde svr-<br />
face (51,Fi~. la) &ait en contradiction avec la premièrc hypothèse. Néan-<br />
moins, les mesures de type extensives mentionnées dens l'introduction ont<br />
été commencées dès 1963.<br />
La liste des stations concernées par ces mesures est donnée dans le<br />
tableau 1 et la Fig. lb présente leur répartition sur la surface du bassin.
2. 8EMERS RESULTATS ISSUS DE SINPLES CORRELATlONS INTER-STATIONS<br />
2.1. Préliminaire : Dans tout ce qui suit, nous appellerons débits d'étiages<br />
tout débit provenant du drainage d'un réservoir souterrain (même proche du<br />
sol), à l'exclusion dé tout ruissellement (de surface, direct, retardé,<br />
105<br />
etc...), et de tout écoulement "hypodermique". Nous faisons l'hypothèse que<br />
nous sommes dans ces conditions lorsque la dernière crue est distante de<br />
plusieurs jours (crues estivales tr&s modestes), ou de Plusieurs semaines<br />
(crues moyennes et fortes), gour des bassins de 10 à 100 Km?: Ne connais-<br />
sant pas la repré;.ntativité dans le temps de ces jaugeages instantanés,<br />
nous corrélons deux h deu lec jaugeages de même date. Pour simplifier, nous<br />
n'avons pasétudié toutes les combinaisons 2 à 2 réalisables avec le groupe<br />
des 9 ou 10 stations. Enfin, nous n'avons pas corrélé les débits spécifiques<br />
mais les débits absolus. Les grandes différences de comportement des divers<br />
bassins montrent en effet que la notion de surface du bassin superficiel<br />
nia sans doute pas grand chose h voir avec les dimensions des réservoirs<br />
souterrains générateurs des débits d'étiage.<br />
2.2. Rksultats : En général, sur tous les graphiques construits (environ 20), on<br />
observe une dispersior. assez forte (Fig. 22). Elle est même très forte sur<br />
toute corrélation concernant Mélarchez. Elle n'est acceptable qu'à l'inté-<br />
rieur du groupe des 3 stations aval du ru des Avenelles (Gouge, Avenelles,<br />
Theil) et de la station du Croupet.<br />
Même en faisant abstraction de la dispersion propre aux erreurs<br />
de mesure (les jaugeages d'étiage sont délicats et peu précis), l'ensemble<br />
des points reste très dispersé.<br />
ia première conclusion à en tirer est ia suivante : les conditions<br />
d'alimentation des différents réservoirs souterrains (à l'origine des débits<br />
d'étiage) ne sont pas homogènes sur l'ensemble du bassin, malgrdla taille<br />
-<br />
réduite (100 Km2) de ceiui-ci.<br />
En regardant de plus près on constate que, pour une année donnée,<br />
la dispersion est moins grande, et parfois même faible. D'ou la seconde<br />
conclusion : pour une période d'étiage continue donnée (un été), les c oa-<br />
tions d'alimentation (l'hiver prbcédent) se révelent stables dans le temps.<br />
Pour la plupart des bassins, cette dernière conclusion doit cepen-<br />
dant être nuancée quand on prend en compte les basses eaux tardives (zutorne).<br />
Ces dernières sont d6jà influencées par les premières pluies d'hiver (les
106<br />
débits remontent, ou bien leur baisse diminue ou s'annule), et les corré-<br />
lations montrent des comportements très différenciés selon les bassins :<br />
les points correspondant à des dates tardives (Octobre &. Décembre) sont<br />
souvent rassemblés d'un Seul côté du nuage de points, pour une année donnée.<br />
Nous dirons que les bassins qui "pr<strong>of</strong>itent'' rapidement des premières pluies<br />
d'hiver ont une alimentation plus superficielle que les autres. D'où la troi-<br />
sième conclusion : les bassins amont ont une alimentation ñettement plus super.<br />
ficieìïe que les autres (résultat classique) ; ce caractère supérficieì est<br />
surtout marqué au-dessous de i5 km2 (exutoire situé au-dessus des argiles<br />
vertes) ; surface égale, le ru du Rognon est plus "superficiel" que le ru<br />
des Avenelles : le ru de Bourgogne semble être intermédiaire entre les deux,<br />
mais la probabilité d'une assez forte rétention de surface (forêt) rend cette<br />
conclusion aléatoire.<br />
2.3. Aspect méthodologique : Des observations précédentes nous déduisons un graphiqi<br />
caractéristique (Fig. 23) d'une corrélation entre les étiages instantanés de<br />
deux bassins voisins, mais à système hydrogéologique (d'alimentation d'étiage)<br />
différencié. Il y a une forte dispersion globale, mais l'évolution est cohé-<br />
rente à l'intérieur d'une année donnée (i ou j ou k).<br />
3. CORRELRTION INTER-STATION PAFI WUBLES CUMUL5<br />
3.1. Résultats qualitatifs : Etant donné la forte dispersion des corrélations to-<br />
tales 2à 2, il était difficile d'en tirer des conclusions sur les abondances<br />
relatives des bassins corrélés. Les courbes de doubles cumuls ont donc été<br />
tracées. Elles confirment d'abord les conclusions précédentes : hétérog6néité<br />
non négligeable d'une année à l'autre, bonne homogénéité à l'intérieur d'une<br />
année avec courbure, caractéristique de 1' influence des premières pluies Aiver<br />
Néanmoins, une bonne tendance se dessine sur la plupart des graphiques et per-<br />
met de tirer des conclusions sur l'abondance relative des étiages. D'ou la<br />
quatrième conclusion, en raisonnant en débit spécifique (k surface égale) :<br />
le ru des Avenelles est nettement plus abondant que le ru du Rognon ; le ru de<br />
Bourgogne est legèrement plus abondant que le ru du Rognon : dans le bassin du<br />
Rognon, le ru du Petit Courcy (ferme Plessier) est nettement plus abondant w e<br />
le haut Rcgnon ; dins le bassin des \venelles, c'est le ru de 1'Etang qui<br />
apporte l'essentiel des étiages par rapport un bassin de Mélarchez insignifi;
107<br />
On constate une quasi identité entre les bassins d'étiage faible<br />
et ceux qui pr<strong>of</strong>itent rapidement des premières pluies d'hiver (rus "super-<br />
ficiels"). I1 en est be même entre ceux b. étiage pur (coeur de l'été) abon-<br />
- dant et ceux dont les eaux restent basses tardivement.<br />
A noter, enfin, que le caractère de "superficialité" attribué aux<br />
bassins de Mélarchez et de Pierre Levée et déduit d'une-réponse rapide aux<br />
premières pluies d'hiver, se décèle également pour la partie, aval du bassin.<br />
Ce sont les pentes plus fortes dominant l'extrêmité aval des thalwegs (en<br />
particulier au droit de la station des Avenelles et du Champ de Tir) qui<br />
sont probablement à l'origine de cette (faible) croissance relative des<br />
étiages de fin d'été.<br />
3.2. Aspect méthoddogique : La courbe type d'une corrélation par double cumul<br />
entre deux bassins voisins a été représentée sur la Fig. 32. On a bien<br />
entendu fait l'hypothèse de l'existence de différences classiques entre<br />
i- i-<br />
les nappes alimentant les étiages (- abondantes, - superficielles, etc...).<br />
Les caractéristiques d'abondance ont +té mises entre parenthèses<br />
sur la Fig. 32 car la liaison "abondance-pr<strong>of</strong>ondeur (des nappes)" observée<br />
sur l'ûrgeval, n'est pas générale, même si elle est fréquente.<br />
4. ESSAI DE COMPAXAISON QUAhTITATIVE ENTRE BASSINS<br />
Dans les tableaux qui suivent nous avons essayé de consigner, sous<br />
forme condensée et parfois numérique, les conclusions présentées auparavant.<br />
Chaque tableau se rapporte à une des 4 stations principales du bassin. Les<br />
diverses caractéristiques d'étiage déterminées sur ces 4 bassins principaux<br />
fi] fi] fi] (1/ pourront ainsi être approximativement transformées pour<br />
s'adapter à tel ou tel bassin non observé de manière continue ($9 8 & 9).<br />
Le rapport d'abondance moyenne K noté en colonne (4) est une estimation de la<br />
pente moyenne de la courbe des doubles cumuls (9 3), éventuellement affranchie<br />
des anomalies de cette courbe. Pour souligner les différences de comporte-<br />
ment des bassins, ce rapport est calculé avec les débits spécifiques.<br />
Ce coefficient K est donc (aux rapports des surfaces près) le rap-<br />
port entre les moyennes des mesures d'étiages épisodiques effectuées en 2<br />
stations. ia signification statistique de ces moyennes est a priori tout à<br />
fait particulière ; on verra au § 32 qu'elle peut être rattachée à une carac-<br />
téristique générale,
108<br />
4.1. Etiages instantanés comparés à cem de la station équipée de Mélarchez :<br />
--------_-e============;<br />
- ----- ~ -___<br />
Car adere<br />
Cours d'eau Station<br />
(1)<br />
Avenelles<br />
(Fosse Rognon) Mélarchez<br />
.---_I-----_--_..----------<br />
Etang. ........ Croupet<br />
Petit Couroy.. Bibartault<br />
Rognon.. ...... Pierre k v<br />
ßourgogne.. ... Ch. de Tir<br />
Rognon. .......<br />
Avenelles<br />
Fosse Rognon 1.<br />
(2 1<br />
Bibartault<br />
Gouge<br />
Rognon ........ Ch. de.Tir<br />
Avenelles..... Avenelles<br />
Orgeval.. ..... Theil<br />
Etang. ........ Croupet<br />
Rognon.. ...... Ch. de Tir 43,4<br />
Avenelles..... Avenelles 45,7<br />
Orgeval ...... Theil 104<br />
0,3 à 0,4 í (<br />
0,6 (<br />
superficiel<br />
des nappes<br />
(5 1<br />
-<br />
-------..--_-<br />
assez<br />
pr<strong>of</strong> ondes<br />
II II<br />
superfiddks<br />
assez pr<strong>of</strong>.<br />
It 11<br />
% par rapport au bassin de référenc5 Tableau 41<br />
superficiel<br />
un peu +<br />
superficiel<br />
pius<br />
:orréiation<br />
;res mauvaise<br />
4.2. Etiages instantanés comparés à ceux de la station équipée de la Gouge :<br />
Nous n'avons étudié que les bassins de surface pas trop petite par rapport<br />
à celle de la Gouge, pour ne pas introduire de trop grosses différences.<br />
Cours d'eau I Station I I 'Kf=<br />
1<br />
._______r____<br />
Caractere<br />
superficiel Remarques<br />
des nappes"<br />
(5) (6)<br />
Avenelles<br />
f par rapport au bassin de référence. Tableau 42<br />
1<br />
)corrélation<br />
)ves bonne<br />
1
_______-___ _--_-_-----<br />
_-_____-I__ --I---<br />
-----<br />
Cours d'eau Station<br />
(1) (2 1<br />
Avenelles.. Avenelles<br />
_______-__--..-----------<br />
Rognon ..... Ch. de Tir<br />
Orgeval ... Theil<br />
-____________ ---<br />
Grgeval ..., Theil<br />
_________________-------<br />
. Ch. de Tir<br />
Rognon . ___________________----<br />
__ - _______ -_- --<br />
109<br />
4.3. Etiages comparés à ceux des stations équipées des Avenelles et du Theil :<br />
5. INFLUENCE DES UTILISATIONS HUMAINES DE L'EAU<br />
K"<br />
superficiel<br />
des nappes*<br />
Remarques<br />
(4) (5) (6)<br />
plus<br />
Os4 superficiel<br />
0,75 semblable<br />
Ces observations portent sur 8 années et, pour chaque été, sur des pé-<br />
riodes de plusieurs mois, il nous semble que, sauf exception (cf. ci-dessous),<br />
les influences humaines sur les étiages (pompages, retenues d'eau, etc ...)<br />
ne peuvent pas avoir faussé les conclusions précédentes. De par leur irrégu-<br />
larité (les équipements se modifient, les lieux de pompage se déplacent, les<br />
volumes prélevés ou rejetés sont très irréguliers dans le temps) elles sont<br />
partiellement & l'origine de la forte dispersion mentionnée au début du 5 2,<br />
mais nous avons veillé à ne tirer des conclusions que sur les tendances,<br />
affranchies des irrégularités locales et instantanées. I1 faut noter jci que<br />
cette étude avait déjà été envisagée en 1966 avec les mesures réalisées<br />
cette date. Etant donné la dispersion observke, les résultats avaient<br />
tellement décourageants que ces cûmpacnes de jaugeages épisodiques ont failli<br />
être abandonnées. I1 n'a donc pas fallu moins de 8 ans pour arriver à u'a.f'-<br />
franchjr de ces variabilités locales et percevoir les tendances.<br />
Des estirriations rapides sur les rejets possibles de la commune de DOUE<br />
(alimentée depuis ].'extérieur du bassin) dans le ru de l'Etang, ou sur les<br />
pompages de COUIOhPlIEK3 dans le PU du Rognon (en amont du Champ de Tir), ont<br />
abouti & des influences mriximales de quelques 5, sauf pour le ru clii Ro:--i?n<br />
au Champ de Tir dans le bassin duquel 11 1/s sont captés en quasi-permanence<br />
par la ville de COULOMMIERS. Ces influences ont été ndgligées dans la<br />
été
11 o<br />
6.<br />
présente étude qui fournit simplement des ordres de grandeur pour les<br />
comparaisons entre bassins dans leur stade actuel de fonctionnement.<br />
Une autre influence peut-être non négligeable concerne le captage<br />
d'une partie des eaux de Pierre Levée, en aval immédiat de la station,<br />
par un puits qui ne devrait d'ailleurs servir que pour écrêter les hautes<br />
eaux, c'est-à-dire à partir d'un certain débit, largement supérieur a m<br />
basses eaux concernées dans cette étude. Ceci pourrait cxpliquer la fai-<br />
blesse du ru du Rognon à Bibartault (§ 31). I1 n'est pas posiible actuel-<br />
lement d'estimer les d6bit.s ainsi dérivés et donc de corriger les mesures<br />
faites à Pierre Levée.<br />
Pour le ru du Rognon au Champ de Tir, compte tenu de ce que nous ne<br />
savons pas où iraient les 11. l/s captés s'ils étaient libres de s'écouler<br />
naturellement, nous préférons travailler sur les débits observés.<br />
VARIATIONS DES ETIAGES D'AMONT EN AVAL<br />
Du fait de l'organisation propre d'un réseau hydrographique, lequel<br />
est constitué de divers tronçons réunis en des confluents, les surfaces<br />
contrôlées par un ru d'amont en aval subissent des discontinuités (conflu-<br />
ent) qui rendent délicates les études de variation des caractéristiques<br />
hydrologiques d'amont en aval. Ceci est particulièrement vrai lorsque, à<br />
un confluent, se réunissent deux tronçons de caractéristiques très diffé-<br />
rentes. En toute rigueur, il faudrait faire apparaitre ces discontinuités<br />
dans les résultats.<br />
En première approximation, nous négligeons ces nuances et les Fig. 6a<br />
et Gb qui suivent présentent un ordre de grandeur de la variation des débits<br />
d'étiage d'amont en aval sur les deux principaux rus du bassin : Avenelles<br />
et Rognon. Ces courbes ne donnent qu'une indication de la fourchette obser-<br />
vée sur les 8 ans d'observation. La courbe centrale (point M) n'est pas une<br />
courbe de vraies moyennes statistiques, lesquelles ne peuvent être calcu-<br />
lées étant donné la distribution anarchique des dates de jauseaye sur ces<br />
e ans. D'autre part, pour une date donnée, l'ensemble des débits observés<br />
d'amont en aval ne. forme pas nécessairement une courbe "parallèle" aux<br />
limites ou B la courbe centrale esquissés.<br />
Le caractère plus redressé des courbes du ru du i?ognon s'explique par<br />
le fait que, en allant de l'amont vers l'aval, il rencontre des rus pr-ogres-<br />
sivement plus abondants ($ 4 1). Ln situation est ir.versée porir le<br />
-
u des Avenelles à partir du confluent "ru de 1' Etang - ru de<br />
Fosse Rognon".<br />
111<br />
Les figures 6a et 6b peuvent servir à estimer des moyennes fictives de<br />
débits d'étiages mesur6,s en des stations non observées, ce qui permet d'es-<br />
timer leurs rapports K ($ 4).<br />
7. ASPECTS HYDROGEOIDCIQüES<br />
L'abondance des débits du ru des Avenelles à la Gouge était expliquée,<br />
Jucqu'à présent, par le fait que, situé au-dessous d'un affledrement d'argiles<br />
vertes, ce cours d'eau récupérait l'essentiel des infiltrations stoppées par<br />
cet horizon imperméable des argiles. Or, nous voyons que les débits sont<br />
déjà importants un peu au-dessus de cet affleurement, sur le ru de 1'Etang<br />
à Croupet par exemple.<br />
L'examen de la carte géologique (Fig. la) montrait d'autre part une<br />
forte présence de sables de Fontainebleau dans la partie aval du ru del'Etan@:<br />
(Ouest et Nord de la butte de DOUE).<br />
De même, ce sable (par ailleurs présent çà et là dans tous les limons de<br />
Brie) serait également plus abondant à l'amont du ru du Petit Couroy. Or<br />
dernier est, après le ru de l'Etang, le second "chateau d'eau'' pour les<br />
étiages du bassin. Ta station de Bibartault est, par ailleurs, sitde net-<br />
tement au-dessus de l'aff leurement des argiles vertes.<br />
ia liaison entre sable et étiages paraissait à envisager et nous avan-<br />
cions l'hypoth&se que les étiages du bassin de l'0rgeval étaient moins le<br />
résultat d'un drainage des limons localisé immédiatement au-dessus des argiles<br />
vertes, que le résultat du drainage des nappes éparses qui peuvent être loca-<br />
lisdes dans toute l'épaisseur des limons, mais qui sont simplement plus abon-<br />
dantes dans les zones oÙ le sable est plus fréquent.<br />
Quant aux étiages assez abondants du ru de Bourgogne, il pourrait s'agir<br />
d'une influence bénéfique de la forêt sur le volume des étiages, résultat qui<br />
commence a etre admis un peu partout (pour la zone tempérée), malgré les nom-<br />
breuses controverses toujours en cours sur ce suJet.<br />
Depuis peu, une campagne geophysique de sondages électriques a montré<br />
qu'il n'y avait guère de lentilles de sable, mais des lentilles de calcaire<br />
et meulière de 3rie. La signification géologique change, mais le rgsultat est<br />
quasiment le même pour 1'hyclrol.ogue. Une campagne de mesures épisodiques ue<br />
niveaux de puits a d'ailleurs confirms ces hypotheses.<br />
ce
11 2<br />
Dans tout ceci il faut noter l'extraordinaire différence de comporte-<br />
ment en étiage de bassins qui, en l'absence de ces mesures de débits<br />
partielles et épisodiques, étaient communément considérés comme remarquable-<br />
ment (voire exceptiotuîeììement ) homogènes. Ceci est un avertissement sérieux<br />
qui doit rendre extrêmement circonspect dans toute interpolation ou extrapo-<br />
lation de résultats à une échelle régionale.<br />
8. CARACTEXiISTIQUES D'ETIAGFS DES BASSINS NON EQUIPES<br />
I1 reste à présent à utiliser les résultats ci-dessus pour obtenir<br />
quelques caractéristiques d'étiages sur les bassins secondaires non contrô-<br />
lés en permanence. Ceci suppose d'avoir auparavant élaboré les caractéris-<br />
tiques correspondantes des bassins de référence, équipés.<br />
8.1. Résultats observés sur les bassins équipés :<br />
8.1.1. MéLhgdgs-:<br />
L'étude de la forme des courbes .de tarissement est décevante, ce<br />
qui n'est guère étonnant quand on considère la petite taille des bassins<br />
et l'hétkrogénéité des aquifères d'alimentation : ensemble de nappes<br />
plus ou moins superficielles et locales irrégulièrement distribuées dans<br />
l'espace. I1 n'est donc pas possible d'estimer les volumes emmagasinés<br />
avec une précision acceptable.<br />
L'étude des étiages à l'échelle de temps du mois civil n'est pas non<br />
PlUS très intéressante, étant donné l'inexistance d'une véritable saison<br />
sèche piuviométrique : ï'ûrgevaï est soumis à un climat où les pluies<br />
d'été sont aussi nombreuses et importantes que celles d'hiver. Certes,<br />
la fonction de rendement (coefficient d'écoulement) est très basse en<br />
été mais, s'agissant de petits bassins, l'influence de ces petites crues<br />
d'été est fondamentale sur les débits. I1 en résulte que les périodes<br />
d'étiage peu supérieures à 5 ou 10 jours sont relativement rares ; et<br />
celles de 3 jours consécutifs que l'on peut rencontrer sont toujours 2<br />
cheval sur 2 mois civils.<br />
Les seules caractéristiques intéressantes sont celles qui s'expriment<br />
en fonction des débits journaliers. Les plus connus snnt les débits classés,<br />
notés Dc et les minimums de débits moyens sur N jours notés Vcn<br />
n<br />
(N = 355 - n). Sur l'Orgeva1, nous avons. pris l'habitude fi] d'y ajouter<br />
un troisibme type, not8 QCn et appelé "débit caractéristique de période
continue". BI étiages la définition de ces QCn est la suivante :<br />
113<br />
QC d'une année est, le minimum des débits Journaliers maximums des<br />
n<br />
périodes de N jours consécutifs (N = 365 - n). Cette définition, un peu<br />
complexe, recouvre'en fait une caractéristique de type "seuil", facile<br />
à déterminer sur un graphique (Fig. 811).<br />
8.1.2. Eésultgtz :<br />
Les distributións des 10 valeurs annuelles détehnées, pour chacune<br />
des 4 stations de références, sur la période 19ó2-1g0, e& très irrégu-<br />
lière : non seulement il n'est pas raisonnable d'y ajuster des lois,<br />
mais l'extrapolation de la simple distribution expérimentale F(Q) n'est<br />
même pas envisageable. Dans ces conditions, les seuls résultats synthé-<br />
tiques que l'on puisse avancer sont les valeurs moyennes et extrêmes<br />
observées, en précisant qu'ils sont relatifs k 10 années d'observation,<br />
le tableau 812 ci-dessous récapitule les résultats et la Fig. 812 pré-<br />
sente les valeurs moyennes.<br />
I1 faut noter que les débits caractéristiques QC et VC pour<br />
n n<br />
n = 335 correspondent k des données "mensuelles", mais pour un mois<br />
"mobile", affranchi des limites civiles de début et fin de mois.<br />
O, 493<br />
O, 576<br />
O, 652<br />
1,oe<br />
Note : pour QCn,et VCn, durée de 1.a Période = (365 - n) jours.<br />
le
QCn en 1/s<br />
8.2. Estimation des caractéristiques des bassins non équipés :<br />
En examinarit les r6sultats rgcumks sur la Fig.fi12et en les confrontant<br />
aux termes de comparaisons (K essentiellement) présentés au $ 4, on cons-<br />
tate que :<br />
- la décroissance de chacune des.3 courbes quand n croît se fait à peu<br />
près selon la même pente pour les 4 bassins équipés ;<br />
- les courbes de valeurs moyennes sur 10 ans VC (n) et Dc (n) sont très<br />
n n<br />
proches ; celle de QCn(n) est nettement distincte ;<br />
- la connaissance des 3 points : QC335 , VC335 et Dc permet de dél-imi-<br />
. 365'<br />
ter un triangle représentant quasiment tous les résultats du tableau 812;<br />
- les rapports d'abondance spocifique K définis au $ 4 correspondent à peu<br />
près aux rapports K1 des QC (spécifiques) ; ceci est compréhen-<br />
335<br />
sible car de toutes les ca,ractéristiques d'étiages déterminées au $ 81,<br />
ce sont les QC qui sont le plus éloignés des minimums instantanés<br />
335<br />
et les moins éloignés donc de cette moyenne d'étiages mesurés qui a<br />
servì au calcul du rapport K. ;<br />
- Les rapports K et K entre les deux o.utres caractéristiques définissant<br />
2 3<br />
le "triangle" cité précédernent sont différents de K et Kl, mais leurs<br />
sont approximativement proportionnels et selon un coefficient indépendant<br />
du bassin à l'intérieur d'un même type de bassins (superficiel ou pr<strong>of</strong>ond)<br />
ces rapports sont cependant variables avec le bassin de référence uti-<br />
lisé ; ils sont présentés dans le tableau 82.<br />
Le tableau 82 peut être complété en utilisant les propriétés notées<br />
ci-dessus et 1es.connaissances qualitatives du bassin (0 $ 2 et 3) : les<br />
rapports K1 à 5 estimés y sont notés entre 2arenthèses. A l'aide de ces<br />
rapports et des résultats des bassins de référence, on a estimé, pour les<br />
6 bassins non équipés, les tro'is débits caractéristiques (QC 335' vc335 et
DC délimitant les triangleybbservés sur la Fig. 812. Certains bassins<br />
365<br />
(Croupet et Rognon au Champ de Tir) non équipés avaient été comparés ?i deux<br />
ou trois bassins de référence et les estimations concordent de maniere satis-<br />
faisante, sauf pour l'estimation du Champ de Tir (Rognon) & partir du Theil<br />
qui est faible,<br />
I1 faut noter que seul un souci d'économie à limité les comparaisons<br />
entre bassins équipés et non équipés ; il y avait en fait des données suffi.-<br />
santes pour comparer chacun des 6 bassins non équipés 5 chacun d:s 4 bassins<br />
équipks de référence.<br />
115<br />
La Fig. 82 récapitule les estimations. Compte tenu du caractère aléatoire<br />
des estimations de K et Y on a également cherché à respecter approximative-<br />
ment la forme des "triangles" qui étaient à peu près égaux sur les données<br />
observées (Fig. 812).<br />
MELARCHEZ<br />
2 5'<br />
Tableau 82 ,<br />
Rapports entre débits caractéristiques d'étiages et<br />
moyennes des étiages instantanés<br />
(les rapports estimés sont entre pareritheses)<br />
' ea11<br />
295 a 3<br />
(1)<br />
3<br />
O,? à O,¡<br />
4 à 5<br />
.<br />
2<br />
4 à 5<br />
fia4<br />
lCUARCHEZ (Y = M) 7 Km2 débits spécifiques<br />
G O U G E (Y = G) 24,7 Km2<br />
I I
11 6<br />
9. DISCUSSION<br />
L'absence de mesures continues sur les bassins non équipés ne permet pas<br />
de tester la précision des estimations faites au $ 82. Néanmoins, la méthode<br />
de comparaison (doubles-cumuls) ayant été appliquée aux 4 bassins observés de<br />
manière continue, on a là un moyen de tester partiellement la méthode : les<br />
estimations sont bonnes, voire excellentes, mais il était nécessaire de dis-<br />
poser d'au moins 2 ou 3 bassins pour connaître les relations entre les<br />
Ki (i = 1 à 3) et K.<br />
Compte tenu de la méthode employée, et de 1'irrégul.arité des distribdions<br />
$$ 81.2), il n'est pas bon de l'appliquer aux valeurs extrêmes observées<br />
l'on ne pourra suffisamment bien mesurer ni la fréquence des rgsultats (repérés.<br />
ou estimés), ni les intervalles de confiance correspondants.<br />
Mises à part les courbes de double-cumuls qui nous semblent etre une<br />
&ape nécessaire et fondamentale (elles permettent de c'affranchir des nom-<br />
breuses irrdgularités locales propres aux étiages et de percevoir la tendance),<br />
la suite de l'analyse pr6scntée ne prétend à aucune originalité et il serait<br />
possible d'utiliser les données autrement, par exemple en étudiant les liai-<br />
sons entre les jaugeages instantanés et les débits mensuels.<br />
Si ces cam-a.gnes de jnugeag'en épisodiques n'avaient -as 4té réa.lis4sJ 1-3<br />
dobits d'étiage auraient été estimés directement & parth- des 4 bassins n'user-<br />
vés, en appliquant la règle habituelle d'égalité de débit sphcifique, la<br />
car
117<br />
connaissance géologique conduisant à diviser le bassin en deux groupes : type<br />
"MELARCHEZ" pour ceux dont l'exutoire est situé au-dessus du niveau impermé-<br />
able des "argiles vertes!, type "GOUGE-AVENELJXS-THEIL" pour ceux dont l'exu-<br />
toire est situ6 au-dessous. A titre d'exemple, le tableau 9 présente les deu<br />
types d'estimations pour le QC 335 *<br />
Bass ins<br />
MELARCHEZ<br />
GOUGE<br />
AVENELLES<br />
THEIL<br />
CROUPET<br />
PIERRE LEWx<br />
BIBARTAULT (P. Courcy)<br />
" (Rognon )<br />
CHAPii &TIR (Bourgogne)<br />
Tableau 9<br />
Comparaison des estimations possibles du QC<br />
335 __---_--_____I<br />
II II II<br />
(Rognon 1<br />
--_-_----_____________<br />
__---_-___<br />
observés<br />
On voit sur le tableau 9 qu'en l'absence de ces jaugenges isolés les<br />
estimations de débit d'étiage auraient été complètement fausses pour les bas-<br />
sins du CROUPET et de BIEARTAULT (Petit Couroy), et très médiocres pour les<br />
2 bassins du CHAMP de TIR, l'écart pour le ru du Rognon au CHAMP de TLH<br />
n'étant que très partiellement réduit par une évmtuelle correction des<br />
débits (au grand maximum + O,25 l/s.W), suite aux captages de COUI13Kt4TERS.<br />
CONCLUSION<br />
Des camnsgnes de ,jaiiFeages 6pisodiqiies en basses eaux pcrrnettent d'c qf iv-r<br />
certaines caractéristiques d'étiages. de cours d'eau non observés en perniônence,<br />
SOUS réserve Ce satisfaire à un certain nombre de conditions. I1 est d'abord<br />
n6cessaire d'effectuer de nombreuses mecurcs (quasi simultanées en tous les<br />
,
11 8<br />
points étudiés) et pendant un assez grand nombre d'années (cycle saisonnier),<br />
de maniere à s'affranchir des incertitudes propres aux mesures d'étiages et<br />
des hétérogénéit6s d'alimentation des. réservoirs souterrains. Ensuite il faut<br />
gén6ralement se 1imit.er h l'estimation de caractéristiques moyennes, les irré-<br />
gularités citées ne permettant guère<br />
Enfin le jaugeage, lors de ces campagnes, de stations observées par ailleurs<br />
en permanence (équipées) est indispensable pour faire dépasser aux résultats<br />
le stade sommaire d'une moyenne de mesures instantanée<br />
que d'observer de$ moyennes à terme.<br />
(de sighification<br />
statistique inconnue) et permettre l'estimation de caractéristiques classiques.<br />
REMERCIEMENTS : Nous remercions ici M. HIAVEC Robert, Chef de la Division Hydro-<br />
l<strong>of</strong>fie du CTOREF et. M. DUEFEUIL P., Inspecteur de Recherche & l'ORSTOM, qui ont<br />
6th les instigateurs de ces campapes de mesures épisodiques. Nol.re reconnals-<br />
sance va aussi à MM. TESSIER, TOL?N%, ROSIQüE (.Ta et
BASSIN DE L'ORGEVAL<br />
Lôgende<br />
@ Statione Hydrometrlques<br />
1 Y6lnrchez<br />
2 Gouge<br />
3 Avenellei<br />
4 Thell<br />
5 Croupe<<br />
6 Plerrelav&<br />
e .<br />
10 .<br />
FIg 2 Réseau des étiagee<br />
119
W<br />
o<br />
120
\<br />
I-<br />
L :-<br />
121
122<br />
dibitr Q<br />
I I
123
ABSTRACT<br />
PARAMETRES REGIONAUX RELATIFS AUX RESSOURCES<br />
EN EAU. UTILISATION. PRECISION D'ESTIMATION<br />
par J.R. TIERCELIN<br />
Di vis i on H y drologie<br />
Centre Technique du Génie Rural, des Eaux et des Forêts<br />
(C.T.G.R.E.F.)<br />
Ministère de 1'Agricultur.e<br />
et du Développement Rural. France<br />
Experience has shown that some parameters relative to monthly<br />
and annual discharges are <strong>of</strong>ten similar between the various gauging<br />
stations <strong>of</strong> a network. Calling "regi'onal value <strong>of</strong> a parameter" the<br />
arithmetical mean <strong>of</strong> the values <strong>of</strong> this parameter in the various<br />
stations, one supposes that this regional value can be used even in<br />
places where no measurement are available. Theory and pratica1<br />
aplication show that some results obtained in this way reach a very<br />
interesting accuracy for people in charge <strong>of</strong> water management and<br />
designers <strong>of</strong> water resources projects.<br />
RESUMEN<br />
Las observaciones muestran que ciertos parámetros sobre los<br />
flujos mensuales y anuales varían poco entre las diferentes estacio<br />
nes hidrométricas de una red. Llamando por definición "valor regio-<br />
nal de un parámetro" a la media aritmética de los valores tomados<br />
por este parámetro en las diferentes estaciones de la red, se hace<br />
la hipótesis de que este valor regional conviene, si se utiliza ba-<br />
jo ciertas condiciones, a sitios sobre los que no existen observa-<br />
ciones. La teoria y la aplicación a un caso concreto muestran que<br />
ciertas estimaciones obtenidas de esta manera son, debido a su pre-<br />
cisión, muy interesantes para los responsables de la reordenación<br />
del agua y para los proyectistas encargados de idear los equipos hi<br />
drdulicos.
126<br />
L'utilisation des données d'un réseau en vue d'effectuer des synthkses<br />
régionales pour divers paranktres hycirologiques Ect une méthode pratiquée<br />
depuis longterps tn ce qui concerne les crues, meis égzlenent utilisable<br />
dans l'estimation des apports en eau [i]. En principe les valeurs grises<br />
p.? les lararrètris étudias vprient evec les. conditions physiques et c3.L-<br />
matiquos des aiffé~znts bassins, ce qui conduit à recourir k clas corrxia-<br />
t ions mlt iples .<br />
L'étude rnenoe dans le Sud-Ouest de 12 France montre que certzins ?a?-mktres<br />
ont un? v-lour qui varie très ?eu B'm bôssin versant 5 l'autre,<br />
r21
.2.3. Résultats des estimations :<br />
127<br />
Dans les tableaux qui suivent nous présentons les valeurs obtenues<br />
p3ur certains pararetres régionzux, ainsi que l'estimation de l'erreiir<br />
que l'on com3et en appliqurnt une valeur régionale d'un paramètre à un<br />
point de la r5gion concernée. Pour donner une représentation concrète<br />
de chaque valeur de procision, celle-ci est exprimée par la longueur<br />
d'une série d'cbservations qui fournirait la même variance d'erreur<br />
pour le même paramètre.<br />
En ce qui concerne d'abord les moyennes des logarithmes des débits<br />
mensuels, la prScision sbtenue est tra? faible pour que le résultat ait<br />
de l'intérêt, et ceci en raison de la tro- forte variabilité spatiale<br />
de la pluviodtrie (il pourrait en être autrement dans une raon moins<br />
accidentée).<br />
Pour ce qui est des vdriances drs logarithmes des dobits mensuels,<br />
les résultats sont complétk par la valeur du coefficient de variation<br />
des débits naturels, lié ?i Is varirnce v des logarithmes par l'expression<br />
:<br />
x=dex?(v) - 1 (cf. zar ex. 121).<br />
~n outre, ï'expression L = ex? (t fi- v/2) fournit le<br />
rapport d'un débit de fréquence quelconque au module, en appelant t<br />
la valeur de la variable normale centrée réduite pour cette fréqu, once.<br />
Par ailleurs, dans l'exemple traité, les résultats relatifs aux 12<br />
stations 6tudiées se regroupent nettement en deux ensembles correspondont<br />
respectivement à deux sous-régions : Massif-Central (stations 1, 2, 3, h,<br />
7, 6 du schéma d'ensemble), et Pyrénées (stztions 5, 6, 9, 10, 11, 12).
128<br />
2.4. Conclusion sur les résultats obtenus :<br />
L'utilisation de paramètres régionaux s'avère très fructueuse<br />
pour certains paramètres. Ainsi, dans la région étudiée, et SOUS les<br />
conditions qui seront examinées ci-après, en une station même dépour-<br />
L<br />
cients de variation des dkbits mensuels et des coefficients de corr6-<br />
lation sériels, est la même que si on avait disposé d'une trentaine<br />
d'années d'observations.<br />
En partant de séries courtes, le résultat obtenu est encore plus<br />
intéressant en valeur relative. Ainsi avec 10 ans d'observations<br />
(1959-1968) , les variances d'erreurs correspondent à une dizaine<br />
d'années équivalentes. Pour la variance dans le Massif Central, le<br />
nombre d'années équivalentes est même égal h 13. Ce résultat surpre-<br />
nant est une illustration concrete de la notion de stations-années.
III - CONDITIONS D'APPLICATION<br />
3.1. Utilisation d'un paramètre régional en une station :<br />
129<br />
Un paramètre régional est estimé à partir d'un réseau de<br />
stations dominées par des bassins versants présentant des carac-<br />
téristiques physiques plus oit moins variées.<br />
Pour avoir le droit d'utiliser des paramètres régionaux en<br />
un point de la région étudiée, il'faut qudes caractéristiques<br />
du bassin versant concerné entrent ?i peu près dans la gamme des<br />
caractéristiques physiques des bassins versants dominant<br />
stations du réseau, sinon les variances d'erreurs calculées<br />
n'ont aucune signification.<br />
3.2. Combinaison avec d'autres méthodes d'estimation hydrologique :<br />
On peut faire grief à l'utilisation de valeurs régionales de<br />
ne donner des résultats,intéressants que pour certains paramètres<br />
et de ne pas s'appliquer en particulier à l'estimation de modules<br />
ou de moyennes de logarithmes des débits (du moins dans l'exemple<br />
d'application traité). En fait, il faut observer que ces derniers<br />
paradtres peuvent etre estimés.par diverses autres méthodes, meme<br />
en.des points oh il y a peu ou pas d'observations.<br />
Dans ces conditions , l'utilisation de valeurs régionales<br />
apparaft comme un complément des méthodes existantes pour l'esti-<br />
mation des ressources en eau, en vue de connaftre de façon précise<br />
les paramètres de dispersion et de corrélation sérielle, qui sont<br />
en général estimés avec une précision médiocre lorsqu'il y a pe'<br />
ou pas d'observations.<br />
3.3. Application d'autres régions :<br />
La dthode est théoriquement utilisable à partir de n'importe<br />
quel réseau de stations observée$ simultanément. Néanmoins, pour<br />
qFe la précision soit intéressante, il faut ,utiliser des groupes<br />
de stations suffisamment homogènes, ce .qui peut conduire à diviser<br />
la région comme cela a été fait dans l'exemple d'application précédent.<br />
Moyennant cette précaution, il est vraisemblable que la<br />
dthode est applicable ?i n'importe quelle région du globe, tant<br />
pour les débits que pour les pluies.<br />
--------&o--------<br />
NOUS tenons h remercier, à. l'occasion de cette public ation :<br />
- Mme OBERLIN, du CTCREF, qui a effectué une grande partie du travail de<br />
programmation sur ordinateur,<br />
n M. BERNIW, d'Electricité de France, dont les conseils ont permis de mener<br />
h bonne fin les calculs de variance d'erreur,<br />
- M. HLAVEK, Chef de la Division Hydrologie du CTGFtEF, dont les observations<br />
ont conduit B améliorer la rédaction de la note,<br />
- M. de BEAUREGARD, d'Electricit6 de France, MM. EUICLE et BmIERE des 'Cir-<br />
conscriptions Electriques Sud-Ouest et Centre-Ouest, qui nous ont fourni<br />
les données nécessaires B l'étude.<br />
les
130<br />
I - PRECISION D'ESTIMATION<br />
A N N E X E<br />
1.1. Position du problème :<br />
Considérons n stations étudiées simultan6ment durant m années.<br />
Nous étudions pour un mois pkticulier p de l'année les débits mensuels<br />
sous la forme d'une variable qui doit 6tse comparable entre les différentes<br />
stations : en pratique il s'agira soit du débit moyen mensuel<br />
spécifique, soit du logarithme de cette grandeur. Soit A cette vari-<br />
able pour la station de rang J ; &e donne lieu m réalisations<br />
1. i<br />
m<br />
paJ , paJ, ... paJ, à partir desquelles nous déduisons l'estimation<br />
d d'un paramètre (par exemple moyenne ou variance de A ). Les obser-<br />
PJ P J<br />
vations et les variables aléatoires entrant en Jeu sont figurées dans<br />
le tableau ci-dessous.<br />
j=q<br />
Nous posons par définition c o m paramètre régional la valeur<br />
n<br />
pdj/tl, moyenne des valeurs relatives aux différentes<br />
.P J<br />
... et a sont des estimations<br />
stations. es valeurs iì &, ... P<br />
des valeurs théoriques u 1s ... ... et pu.<br />
1 i m<br />
pa1 ..... pai ..... Pal<br />
:1 :i 'm<br />
paJ ..... paJ ..... paJ<br />
:<br />
:1 :I 'm<br />
pan ..... pan ..... Pan<br />
P J<br />
Valeur<br />
théorique<br />
Le problème qui se pose est le suivant. En un emplacement J'<br />
de la région concernée, différent des emplacements qui ont servi<br />
h l'estimation de la valeur régionale, on décide d'appliquer le<br />
paramètre régional 0. En fait, théoriquement, ce qui nous intéresse<br />
est 1a.vraie vaïeur'inconnue u I prise par le parmètre à l'empia-<br />
cement J', et le problème consJste donc à estimer la variance de
l'erreur - ) commise en attribuant à un bassin quelconque J' la<br />
pUJ '<br />
valeur régionale du paramètre.<br />
L'erreur ( d - ) résulte elle même de la composition de deux<br />
erreurs indépenbteg<br />
131<br />
- l'erreur d'adéquation ( u - u), de nature purement physique, provenant<br />
P J' P<br />
du fait que la valeur régionale standard n'est pas parfaitement adaptée<br />
au bassin j' ;<br />
- l'erreur d'échanti'llonnage ( u - a), de nature purement statistique.<br />
P P<br />
1.2. Résultats généraux :<br />
Pour avoir une estimation de l'erreur d'adéquation, nous posons le<br />
postulat suivant : le bassin J' présente vis à vis du standard régional<br />
une différence du &me ordre de grandeur que les bassins 1.. . J.. . .n<br />
en regard de ce standard (Ce p6lnt délicat e t fondamental pour l'application<br />
de la méthode sera discuté au $ ci-après). Dans ces conditions,<br />
nous poso s que l'erreur d'adéquation, exprimc5e par l'écart quadratique<br />
(u - uJi)', est donnée par l'expression :<br />
(1) = (pu - puJ)2/n<br />
J=<br />
Cet écart quadratique moyen, ajouté B la variance de 1'échantIllOnnage<br />
de d; donne l'expression théorique de la variance d'erreur totale :<br />
(2)<br />
A u = u + var ( Q)<br />
P P<br />
Le problème est maintenant de rattacher cette expression aux observations.<br />
Pour cela nous allons calculer l'expression de l'espérance mathématique<br />
0 )2 en fonction des valeurs théoriques u et puJ.<br />
E ( ~ Q - ~ J P<br />
Décomposons les espérances de carrés et de produits en faisant res-<br />
sortir les variances et covariances :<br />
E ( p *) ~ = u2 + var ( Q)<br />
P P<br />
2<br />
E(b )= u2+var(h)<br />
P J P J P J<br />
E ( 0. Q ) = p~.p~J + cov ( Q,<br />
P P J P P<br />
û<br />
J<br />
)<br />
Comme 0 est la moyenne arithmétique des valeurs<br />
P<br />
la dernière ligne s'écrit : n<br />
19... pQkS s.<br />
Q<br />
P n'
132<br />
Eh reportant ces expressions dans (3), il vient ,:<br />
ce qui permet d'exprimer ( u- u )* en fonction des observations :<br />
P P J<br />
et en effectuant pour toutes lesvaleurs de J la sommation (1) :<br />
L'erreur totale donnée par (2) s'exprime donc par la formule :<br />
et en remplaçant les expressions théoriques par leurs estimations, nous obtenons<br />
en définitive :<br />
Par ailleurs, la poursuite des calculs exigera le recours à la matrice des co-<br />
variances liant les variables aléatoires A et relatives à deux stations<br />
quelconques J, k. L'estimation sans biad de PAkcette covariance est fournie<br />
Nous ne pouvons d'ailleurs écrire cette expression qu'en admettant en<br />
principe que le débit du mois p de l'année i à une station est quasiment indé-<br />
pendant du débit du mois p de. l'année i - 1 ?i la &me station, de faconia dis-<br />
poser pour chaque variable aléatoire A d'une série de réalisations a<br />
indépendantes entre elles. PJ P J<br />
II - VARIANCE D'ECHANTILWNNACE DE LA MOYEN'NE<br />
2.1. Expression de la variance d'échantillonnage :<br />
1<br />
Les<br />
i<br />
paramètres sont donnés ici par l'expression : d -(paj + ...<br />
+ am)/m. PJ P J<br />
paJ '*<br />
P J<br />
m
(6)<br />
ia covariance de a.et û est donnée par ì'expression :<br />
PJ p k<br />
&<br />
m<br />
&<br />
2<br />
i' i")<br />
m CBV =<br />
côv 'PaJ' pak<br />
133<br />
Parmi les termes de la sommation, on peut distinguer ceux pour les-<br />
quels i' = i", et qui correspondent ?i des variables relatives à la même<br />
année, et ceux pour lesquels i' # i", correspondant à des années diffé-<br />
rentes. Pour ces derniers, lorsque j = k, nous avons posé l'approximation<br />
d'indépendance (ci. supra) ; nous poserons a fortiori la dm hypothèse<br />
pour J # k.<br />
k<br />
11 vient donc simplement dans ces conditions : c8v (ptìJ,pûk)=pCJ/m<br />
et en particulier : & ( CI ) = c /m.<br />
P J P J<br />
ce qui d!aprbs (4) permet d'écrire l'expression de la variance d'erreur :<br />
n n<br />
A> = 1) (pO-paJ)2/n -2 pcj/m<br />
j =I J=l<br />
De même N( 0) o servations independantes. hypothétiques donnent pow<br />
variance d'erre& &2. Les variances étant d es le rapport des effectifs<br />
d'observations :<br />
nous obtenons en définitive l'expression cherchée :<br />
j,q P P J
(8)<br />
134<br />
111 - YARIANCE D'EcHANTILLONNAGE DE LA VAAIANCE<br />
3.1. Expression de la variance. d'6chantillonnage :<br />
Considérons les définitions de variabies et de paramètres, ainsi<br />
que les résultats obtenus au 5 1 pour l'ensemble des parametres. Pour<br />
qu'il n'y ait pas d'atnbigulté avec les résultats du 5 2 relatifs aux<br />
moyennes , nous remplaçons ici toutes les lettres "u'' par les lettres<br />
Il 11<br />
v.<br />
Le parametre empirique dont nous étudions la variance est l'esti-<br />
mation sans biais de la variance théorique. A partir des observations,<br />
cette estimation sans biais s'écrit :<br />
D'après [3], nous avons pour covariance de 0 et 0 en supposant<br />
normales les variables aléatoires A etpAk P. J ~ k '<br />
P J<br />
côv ( 0 o ) = 2 ( Ck)2/m<br />
P J ' P ~ P J<br />
et en particulier<br />
J2<br />
(9) v&? (pvJ) = (pcJ) /m<br />
(10)<br />
d'ou, d'après la formle (4) dans laquelLe on remplace les lettres "u"<br />
par des lettres "v" ; la variance d'erreur cherchée :<br />
Si on juge plus commode de se référer aux écarts-types qu'aux variances,<br />
on déduira l'erreur A\ sur l'écart-type à partir de<br />
P<br />
l'erreur &v sur ia variance en posant l'approximation :<br />
P<br />
#2&$/ps , ce qui donne :<br />
i=/<br />
14 # A-v/4pol P<br />
3.2. Nombre d'années équivalentes :<br />
Le raisonnement est analogue à celui du 0 2.2.
Une série de m années Inddpendantes donne par variance d'erreur en<br />
moyenne (loi normale) :<br />
Compte tenu en outre de ia relation : ,&:V/ q v<br />
= m/N (4)<br />
b nombre d'années fictives cherché est donné en définitive par la<br />
relation :<br />
IV - VARIANCE D'ERREUR DU COEFFICIENT DE COW1ELATION SERIELLE<br />
135<br />
Théoriquement il serait concevable d'appliquer ici des raisonnements<br />
analogues à ceux qui ont été faits pour les moyennes et les variances.<br />
En pratique 'le calcul paraft Inextricable et surtout nécessite l'obtention<br />
préalable des corrélations croisées entre les observations de chaque<br />
mois p à chaque station avec les observations du mois p-1 à toutes les<br />
autres stations. k coût du calcul serait en définitive hors de proportion<br />
avec son intérêt.<br />
4.1. -ne supérieure des variances d'erreur :<br />
Dans la recherche de la variance d'erreur affectant un paramètre régional<br />
quelconque 0, on peut obtenir une borne supérieure de cette variance,<br />
utilisable pour n'importe quel parametre.<br />
2<br />
En effet, d'une part, l'expression 2 9 - pû,) /n est un maJorat de<br />
J -1<br />
(pu - puJ)<br />
2<br />
l'erreur d'inadéquation U =<br />
/n, puisqu'elle résulte de la<br />
P<br />
ComtJinaiSon entre cette erreur d'inadéquation et les erreurs d'échantillonnage<br />
sur pQ, et pûl...pûJ...pûn.<br />
D'autre part, nous obtiendrons une borne supérieure-de la variance<br />
d'échantillonnage de par le raisonnement suivant.. Nous avons :<br />
P<br />
n A<br />
var ( û) = var<br />
P [ +. ... + pûJ .... + pûn)/n]<br />
=var (a + .*.<br />
P l<br />
+ .*<br />
2<br />
+ ,fln,/n
136<br />
~ e s stations constituant le rbseau sont relativement homogènes ;<br />
ainsi on peut supposer que var . , varpûj,. . var Q . sont du &me<br />
pn<br />
ordre de grandeur K. Dans ces conditions, les expressions telles que<br />
covar ( ) pour J k auront pour major.ant K. I1 vient dans ces<br />
P J ' P ~<br />
conditions : var < K<br />
Une estimation de l'ordre de grandeur K sera fournie par moyenne des<br />
termes var 0 d'ou :<br />
P J<br />
var (,fi) < i var û / n<br />
j -GI PJ<br />
En définitive, nous obtiendrons l'expression générale suivante,<br />
constituant une borne supérieure de la variance d'erreur d'un parametre<br />
j -1 PJ<br />
1 n --<br />
Références bibliographiques :<br />
[l] BENSON M.A. & MATALAS N.C. (1967) - Synthetic hydrology based on regional<br />
statistical parameters. <strong>Water</strong> resources research. Vol 3 n" 11,<br />
.<br />
[2] AITCHISON J. & BROWN .J.A.C. - The lognormal distribution. CAMBREGE<br />
University Ress.<br />
[3] ANDERSON - An introduction to multivariate statistical analysis. WIIM.
PRINCIPLES FOR THE COMPUTATION OF THE MAIN CHARACTERISTICS OF<br />
RIVER WATER RESOURCES AT THE ABSENCE OF OBSERVATIONS ON THE<br />
BASIS OF GEOGRAPHICAL INTERPOLATION OF RUNOFF PARAMETERS<br />
ABS T RACT<br />
K .P. Voskresenski<br />
State Hydrological Institute<br />
Leningrad, USSR<br />
At the absence <strong>of</strong> hydrological data river run<strong>of</strong>f parameters<br />
may be determined by means <strong>of</strong> geographical interpolation <strong>of</strong><br />
their values computed by observations on other rivers <strong>of</strong> the<br />
given area. Thus it is possible to obtain principal characteris-<br />
tics <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f determining the rate <strong>of</strong> possible development <strong>of</strong><br />
rmiver water resources, category and dimensions <strong>of</strong> the projectei<br />
hydraulic structures, On the basis <strong>of</strong> the mentioned principles<br />
methods for river run<strong>of</strong>f computation have been developed in the<br />
USSR for the whole territory <strong>of</strong> the country.<br />
RESUME<br />
En l'absence de données hydrologiques directes, les paramè-<br />
tres de l'écoulement peuvent être déterminés par interpolation<br />
géographique des valeurs observées sur d'autres rivières de la<br />
même région. On peut obtenir ainsi les principaux paramètres de<br />
l'écoulement qui déterminent les possibilités <strong>of</strong>fertes par l'uti<br />
lisation des ressources en eaux de surface et permetten de fixer<br />
les caractéristiques hydrauliques des aménagements. Sur la base<br />
de ces principes, on met au point en URSS des méthodes de calcul<br />
de l'ecoulement de surface pour l'ensemble du pays.
138<br />
The problem <strong>of</strong> river run<strong>of</strong>f computation in connexion <strong>with</strong><br />
water resources development and engineering projects <strong>with</strong> inade-<br />
quabe observational data is very important for many countries<br />
<strong>of</strong> the world.<br />
It is known, that hydrological observabions are made on<br />
a relatively small number <strong>of</strong> stations and never cover all the<br />
rivers intended for water resources development. It is <strong>of</strong>ten<br />
difficult to predict what rivers will be used for water manage-<br />
ment in future therefore they are ungauged from the hydrological<br />
point <strong>of</strong> view. Thus, in case <strong>of</strong> any particular problem on hydrau-<br />
lic engineering difficulties arise because <strong>of</strong> the absence <strong>of</strong><br />
long-term hydrological observations on a particular river.<br />
In case <strong>of</strong> absence or inadequacy <strong>of</strong> observations basic<br />
characteristics <strong>of</strong> river run<strong>of</strong>f may be determined o<strong>nl</strong>y by in-<br />
direct methods based on the use <strong>of</strong> information on water regime<br />
<strong>of</strong> other rivers in the given region or o<strong>nl</strong>argerterritory.<br />
In the Soviet Union there have been developed and introduced<br />
into practice methods for the computation <strong>of</strong> river run<strong>of</strong>f para-<br />
meters essential for water management projects in region in-<br />
sufficiently gauged from the bydrological point <strong>of</strong> view.<br />
The developed methods provided computation <strong>of</strong> river run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
parameters in any region <strong>of</strong> the USSR <strong>with</strong> different climatic<br />
conditions from sub-tropics to the arctic zone.<br />
In case <strong>of</strong> absence or inadequacy <strong>of</strong> hydrological obse.mations<br />
basic water resources characteristics may be determined by<br />
means <strong>of</strong> geographical interpolation (in some cases - by extra-<br />
polation) <strong>of</strong> river run<strong>of</strong>f parameters computed by a small number<br />
<strong>of</strong> basic points <strong>with</strong> long-term observation series usually estab-<br />
lished on main rivers <strong>of</strong> the country.<br />
This method is physically based on distinct variations <strong>of</strong><br />
climakic features <strong>of</strong> river run<strong>of</strong>f, i.e. water balance elements<br />
according to geographic zones.<br />
Latitudinal climatic zonation is the basic law <strong>of</strong> geographic<br />
environment variations. In general it i8 explained by cosmic<br />
reasons determining the amount <strong>of</strong> solar radiation in different<br />
areas <strong>of</strong> the world; the latitudinal zonation to a great extent<br />
also depends on the total aiimospheric circula-Lion determining<br />
water cycle on continents and islands, on the location <strong>of</strong><br />
continents and on the direction <strong>of</strong> sea currents.<br />
In accordance <strong>with</strong> the location <strong>of</strong> climatic zones in plains<br />
and altitudinal climatic belts in mountains it is possible to<br />
observe latitudinal and altitudinal variations <strong>of</strong> water balance<br />
elements, i.e. precipitation, evaporation and run<strong>of</strong>f. This <strong>of</strong>fers<br />
a basis for the plotting <strong>of</strong> maps <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f or it5 main parameters<br />
used for the determination <strong>of</strong> river water resources characteris-<br />
tics in case <strong>of</strong> data absence. Run<strong>of</strong>f parameters <strong>of</strong> ungauged rivers<br />
may be also determined by means <strong>of</strong> direct interpolation <strong>of</strong> their<br />
values between the values obtained for basic points <strong>with</strong> long-<br />
term observation series.
139<br />
Hydrological parameters interpolation is made in accordance<br />
<strong>with</strong> areal change <strong>of</strong> climatic factors <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f <strong>with</strong> the account<br />
<strong>of</strong> non-climatic effect <strong>of</strong> the environment, i.e. topography,<br />
geology, soils and vegetation and permanent morphometric basin<br />
characteristics, i.e. drainage area, slope, etc.<br />
Mean run<strong>of</strong>f <strong>with</strong>in any region aepending mai<strong>nl</strong>y on climatic<br />
features <strong>of</strong> the region may greatly differ from its actual value<br />
<strong>with</strong>in the limits <strong>of</strong> individual river basins. In some cases nonclimatic<br />
factors become predominant and the role <strong>of</strong> climatic<br />
factors becomes subordinate theref ore mean run<strong>of</strong>f may exceed<br />
the climatic norm or be less than this nom. Local factors<br />
effect is best revealed on small rivers. With .the increase <strong>of</strong><br />
river basin the effect <strong>of</strong> local factors is averaged and in case<br />
<strong>of</strong> its optimal value, run<strong>of</strong>f depends o<strong>nl</strong>y on non-climatic<br />
elements. On the other hand, the increase <strong>of</strong> basin area above<br />
some definite limit causes great difference in run<strong>of</strong>f value<br />
in different basin parts and discrepancy between its averaged<br />
value and the climatic norm. This is explained by the fact that<br />
large river basins are usually located <strong>with</strong>in several geographic<br />
zones<br />
Thus interpolation <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f over territory is possible<br />
o<strong>nl</strong>y for rivers <strong>with</strong> basin areas <strong>with</strong>in the limits <strong>of</strong><br />
Am7A y A,<br />
me K (1)<br />
where: An+~is mean optimal basin area when run<strong>of</strong>f interpolation<br />
is possible; Am and AK indicate its upper and lower limits<br />
respectively.<br />
Optimal drainage area is different in various geographic<br />
regions. It depends on a combination <strong>of</strong> natural conditions determining<br />
river run<strong>of</strong>f. The optimal drainage area for any region<br />
is established experimentally.<br />
Difference in run<strong>of</strong>f <strong>of</strong> individual rivers for any area determined<br />
by the map depends not o<strong>nl</strong>y on the basin size but on the<br />
peculiarities <strong>of</strong> methods for run<strong>of</strong>f maps plotting. It substantially<br />
differs from the methods <strong>of</strong> other water balance elements<br />
mapping. U<strong>nl</strong>ike maps <strong>of</strong> precipitation anci evaporation when data<br />
are related to the observation points while plotting the maps,<br />
maps <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f are prepared by its values related to the basin<br />
centre since water discharge measured at the discharge site is<br />
the averaged value <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f from the basin upstream this site.<br />
Therefore a discrepancy is possible in run<strong>of</strong>f values determined<br />
by the map in the basin centre and in its periphery areas. The<br />
difference in run<strong>of</strong>f values will tend to decrease simultaneously<br />
<strong>with</strong> the decrease <strong>of</strong> basin area.<br />
Thus, <strong>with</strong>in definite limits <strong>of</strong> basin areas gradation run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
depends on the size <strong>of</strong> this area. The value <strong>of</strong> a critical area<br />
in any region above which run<strong>of</strong>f is subject to no changes,<br />
may be determined by the graph <strong>of</strong> relations between run<strong>of</strong>f and
140<br />
basin area. It is evident that run<strong>of</strong>f values are plotted on<br />
the graph in relative units, i.e. as depth <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f from the<br />
whole basin (in mm) or as specific discharge (in l/sec per<br />
1 sq.km).<br />
Geographical interpolation method may be used to de termine<br />
basic run<strong>of</strong>f parameters showing the rate <strong>of</strong> possible development<br />
<strong>of</strong> water resowces <strong>of</strong> the river, as well as the types and catego-<br />
ries <strong>of</strong> the projected hydraulic structures, i.e. annual run<strong>of</strong>f,<br />
annual streamflow distribution, maximum discharges, Low (minimum)<br />
flow or periods <strong>of</strong> no flow in the river.<br />
The dependence <strong>of</strong> different run<strong>of</strong>f characteristics on basin<br />
area is different, In its general case it may be expressed by<br />
equation<br />
M.3<br />
where: M is specific run<strong>of</strong>f from basin area A; Q is parameter<br />
expressing run<strong>of</strong>f value independent <strong>of</strong> basin size;<br />
n is the index <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f reduction <strong>with</strong> the change <strong>of</strong> basin<br />
area.<br />
For mean annual run<strong>of</strong>f <strong>with</strong>in the limits <strong>of</strong> optimal areas<br />
ha? ; for the modulus <strong>of</strong> maximum discharge independent <strong>of</strong><br />
basin size nLd ; for the mndulus <strong>of</strong> minimum discharge n>i<br />
Proceeding from the stated character <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f reduction<br />
maps <strong>of</strong> mean annual run<strong>of</strong>f are plotted by the data related to<br />
the rivers <strong>with</strong> basin areas emtceeding; the lower limit <strong>of</strong> the<br />
optimal area. These data are reduced to a long-term period on<br />
the basis <strong>of</strong> correlation <strong>with</strong> other points having long-term<br />
observation series and located in the given region or even<br />
beyond its boundaries.<br />
The duration <strong>of</strong> a long-term period is supposed to be<br />
sufficient if standard error <strong>of</strong> mean run<strong>of</strong>f does not exceed the<br />
accuracy <strong>of</strong> measuremenets and annual run<strong>of</strong>f computation (in the<br />
USSR it is accepted to be equal to !%).<br />
Data on large rivers are used o<strong>nl</strong>y to control the correctness<br />
<strong>of</strong> plotting run<strong>of</strong>f isolines system. For this purpose run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
determined by the map as mean weighted value is compared <strong>with</strong><br />
the actual mean run<strong>of</strong>f at the outlet obtained by measurements.<br />
Since the value <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f on small rivers <strong>with</strong> basin areas<br />
less than the optimal value may be less because <strong>of</strong> the effect<br />
<strong>of</strong> prevailing non-climatic factor or it may exceed mean run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
value in the given Brea, a correction should be introduced to<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f determined by the map. The value <strong>of</strong> corrections is deter-<br />
mined by local graphs <strong>of</strong> relations between run<strong>of</strong>f and basin<br />
area.<br />
For the USSR area two types <strong>of</strong> mean run<strong>of</strong>f reduction from<br />
small basins have been established. In the zones <strong>of</strong> water<br />
surplus and variable moistening river run<strong>of</strong>f from basin leas
than the optimal area tends to decrease due to incomplete<br />
drainage <strong>of</strong> ground water <strong>with</strong>in river basins. On the contrary<br />
in arid zones run<strong>of</strong>f tends to increase <strong>with</strong> the decrease <strong>of</strong><br />
basin area due to decrease <strong>of</strong> losses by evaporation.<br />
Appropriate corrections have been determined for rivers<br />
in ùifferent geographic regions.<br />
To determine mean run<strong>of</strong>f <strong>of</strong> ungauged mountain rivers<br />
local graphs <strong>of</strong> relations between run<strong>of</strong>f and the altitude are<br />
usually usea. Mean basin elevation essential for this purpose<br />
is obtained from topographic maps. As a rule, <strong>with</strong>in the limits<br />
<strong>of</strong> every geographic region there are several local dependences<br />
<strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f change <strong>with</strong> the altitude. The number <strong>of</strong> these graphs<br />
depends not o<strong>nl</strong>y on the range <strong>of</strong> altitudes and mountain slopes<br />
exposure, but also on the number <strong>of</strong> observational points in the<br />
given region. Their increase leads to new local graphs. Thus,<br />
the available graphs are averaged for some territory.<br />
Normal run<strong>of</strong>f is the main water resources characteristic.<br />
But when planning water resources development it is essential<br />
to obtain data on run<strong>of</strong>f for wet and dry years <strong>with</strong> different<br />
frequency <strong>of</strong> occurrence. In the practice <strong>of</strong> hydrological computations<br />
in the USSR probable run<strong>of</strong>f values are obtained by<br />
distribution curve <strong>of</strong> Pearsan III in its integral expression<br />
i.e. frequency curve. Normal run<strong>of</strong>f, coefficient <strong>of</strong> variation<br />
(C ) and coefficient <strong>of</strong> asymmetry (CS) are frequency curve<br />
pallameters. In case <strong>of</strong> observational data available the parameters<br />
are computed by mathematical statistics methods. In case<br />
<strong>of</strong> data inadequacy these parameters are established by geographicalinterpolation<br />
method.<br />
The computation <strong>of</strong> variation coefficient <strong>of</strong> annual run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
is based on the account <strong>of</strong> effect <strong>of</strong> climatic factors variability<br />
and factors <strong>of</strong> natural run<strong>of</strong>f control. Experimental data<br />
show that run<strong>of</strong>f variability tends to increase <strong>with</strong> the debrease<br />
<strong>of</strong> its value. Therefore maximum variations <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f are observed<br />
in arid regions, while minimum ones - in the zone <strong>of</strong> water<br />
surplus. The normal run<strong>of</strong>f itself may serve as an index <strong>of</strong> <strong>nl</strong>imatic<br />
variability.<br />
141<br />
Among the factors <strong>of</strong> natural run<strong>of</strong>f control the capacity <strong>of</strong><br />
river basin is <strong>of</strong> the greatest importance; it determines under-<br />
ground water storage. The basin area is an indirect index <strong>of</strong><br />
basin capacity .<br />
An empirical formula has been obtained for the whole USSR<br />
territory <strong>with</strong> the account <strong>of</strong> the two mentioned factors:<br />
here:bfo is normal run<strong>of</strong>f (l/sec per 1 sq.km); A is basin area<br />
?sq.km);B is parameter computed by substitution <strong>of</strong> She values<br />
known for the river-analogue in the given area into equation (3).
142<br />
The meaning; <strong>of</strong> coefficients <strong>of</strong> asymmetry in case <strong>of</strong> the<br />
absence <strong>of</strong> observations is determined by the ratio <strong>of</strong> Cv and Cs<br />
established by the rivers-analogues in the given basin. If<br />
no analogues are available in the zones <strong>of</strong> water surplus or<br />
variable moistening the follbwing ratio is accepted Ce = 2 C<br />
and for arid zones C, = 1.5 + 1.8 C,; for extremely arid re#&ns<br />
cs = 1.5 c,.<br />
When computing maximum discharges in case <strong>of</strong> no observations<br />
it should be taken into account that the flood character on<br />
rivers in any geographic region is mai<strong>nl</strong>y determined by clima-<br />
tic features and therefore data obtained from observations on<br />
some rivers are extended to all the rest <strong>of</strong> water courses <strong>of</strong><br />
the same region.<br />
Different empirical formulae are used for maximum discharge<br />
computation, their parameters are determined by observational<br />
data on some rivers <strong>of</strong> the region under consideration.<br />
Rational formulae are widely used which are based on the<br />
account <strong>of</strong> maximum or extreme rainfall intensity during flood<br />
concentration; in general they may be given as follows:<br />
where: K is coefficient <strong>of</strong> dimensionality; h is maximum rate<br />
<strong>of</strong> rain or snow melt during lag-time ‘i ; dis coefficient <strong>of</strong><br />
run<strong>of</strong>f during the same interval.<br />
The time <strong>of</strong> flood concentration is <strong>of</strong>ten determined by<br />
empirical relations between this value and river length or<br />
basin area. Run<strong>of</strong>f coefficient is accepted by the analogy <strong>with</strong><br />
flooãs on other rivers proceeding from the general nature <strong>of</strong><br />
top cover and topography.<br />
For practical computations it is reasonable to use reduction<br />
foriïiulae <strong>of</strong> a general type:<br />
where: maf-is maximum specific discharge;<br />
Je - is extreme specific discharge if A-0 and c= i<br />
C -is addition to basin area taking into account the<br />
character <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f maxima variations in case <strong>of</strong><br />
small basin areas;<br />
n. -is the index <strong>of</strong> maximum run<strong>of</strong>f reduction.<br />
The parameters in the formula are established on the basis<br />
DQ processing <strong>of</strong> data on maximum discharges in the given region.<br />
Minimum (low) flow is determined by the rate <strong>of</strong> underground<br />
water drainage by rivers. The amount <strong>of</strong> underground water<br />
discharging into rivers depends on the number and capacity <strong>of</strong><br />
aquifers cut through by river channel. The depth <strong>of</strong> erosion cut
143<br />
usually tends to increase <strong>with</strong> the increase <strong>of</strong> basin area. Therefore<br />
maximum run<strong>of</strong>f varies <strong>with</strong> the change <strong>of</strong> basin area.<br />
In this case the optimal basin area is supposed to be the<br />
area when rivers cut through all the aquifers <strong>of</strong> the given<br />
region. It is possible to plot a map <strong>of</strong> minimum flow for such<br />
rivers to be used for computations.<br />
For small water courses local graphs <strong>of</strong> relations between<br />
minimum flow and basin area are established.<br />
The rate <strong>of</strong> wa.ter resources development <strong>of</strong> some rivers<br />
is determined by the duration <strong>of</strong> no flow period. Such rivers<br />
occur in arid and permafrost zones. The duration <strong>of</strong> dry period<br />
is also determined by the basin area size.<br />
The experience <strong>of</strong> the use <strong>of</strong> indirect methods for the computation<br />
<strong>of</strong> main characteristics <strong>of</strong> water resources <strong>of</strong> the USSR<br />
rivers shows the eqediency <strong>of</strong> their use in countries <strong>with</strong><br />
different climates and different physiographic features.<br />
1. Voskresenski K.P., Norma i izmenchivost godovogo atoka rek<br />
Sovetskogo Soyuza (Annual run<strong>of</strong>f norm and vari-<br />
ability for the USSR rivers), Hydrometeorological<br />
Publishing House, Leningrad, 1962, 545 p.<br />
2. Voskresenski K.P. Gidrologicheskie raschety pri proektiro-<br />
vanii sooruzheniy na malykh rekakh, ruchiakh i<br />
vrememykh vodotokakh (Hydrological computations<br />
for engineering projects on small rivers and<br />
temporary mater couraes), Hydrometeorological<br />
Publishing House, Leningrad, 1956, 468 p.
EVALUATION OF WATER RESOURCES OF MOUNTAIN AREAS IN CASE OF<br />
ABSTRACT<br />
ABSENCE OR INADEQUACY OF DATA ON RUNOFF<br />
Vuglinski V.S.<br />
State Hydrological Institute<br />
Leningrad, USSR<br />
V.A. Semenov<br />
Kazakn Research Hydrometeorological Institute<br />
Alma-Ata, USSR<br />
Normal annual run<strong>of</strong>f, as water resources indicator, may be<br />
determined for mountain areas on the basis <strong>of</strong> taking into account<br />
the laws <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f distribQtion over territory and according to<br />
altitudinal zones established by the observational data from the<br />
gauged rivers. These laws are connected <strong>with</strong> latitudinal and<br />
longtudinal zonalities, <strong>with</strong> differences in the nature <strong>of</strong> the<br />
underlying surfaces and slopes exposure relative to moisture<br />
carrying air fluxes. These laws are quant'itatively expressed by<br />
regional dependences <strong>of</strong> normal run<strong>of</strong>f upon mean basin elevation<br />
and the rate <strong>of</strong> its glacierization. Another method, providing<br />
the determination <strong>of</strong> normal run<strong>of</strong>f also in case <strong>of</strong> complete<br />
absence <strong>of</strong> hydrometric data, is based on a combined solution <strong>of</strong><br />
water and heat balance equations <strong>with</strong> the account <strong>of</strong> the energy<br />
component <strong>of</strong> the water cycle. Data from standard meteorological<br />
network are used for computation.<br />
RES UME<br />
Le débit moyen annuel, en tant qu'indice des ressources en<br />
eau, peut être déterminé dans les régions montagneuses en se<br />
basant sur les lois de distribution établies pour l'ensemble du<br />
territoire à partir des données obtenues aux stations de jau-<br />
geages, en tenant compte d'une división par zones d'altitude.<br />
Ces lois sont liées à la situation géographique (longitude et<br />
latitude), qui se traduit par des différences dans la nature du<br />
sous-sol et dans l'orientation des pentes par rapport 3 la di-<br />
rection des masses d'air humide. Elles se traduisent par des<br />
relations régionales quantitatives entre le ddbit moyen d'une<br />
part et l'altitude moyenne du bassin et le pourcentage de gla-<br />
ciers d'autre part. Une autre méthode, permettant d'évaluer le<br />
débit moyen en l'absence totale de données hydrométriques, met<br />
en jeu la résolution de deux équations, relatives l'une au bi-<br />
lan hydrologique, l'autre au bilan thermique tenant compte des<br />
termes énergétiques du cycle de l'eau. Les calculs sont effec-<br />
tués à partir des données fournies par le réseau m6téorologique.
146<br />
A hydrometric network is very scarce in mountain areas since<br />
they are hardly accessible. Methods for the evaluation <strong>of</strong> surface<br />
water resources in case <strong>of</strong> inadequacy or complete absence<br />
<strong>of</strong> observational data are based either on the account <strong>of</strong> the<br />
laws <strong>of</strong> space distribution <strong>of</strong> normal annual run<strong>of</strong>f @pical <strong>of</strong><br />
the gauged regions or on the application <strong>of</strong> an appropriate<br />
design scheme.<br />
Space distribution <strong>of</strong> water resources (undisturbed by man's<br />
activities) in mountains and in plains is the result <strong>of</strong> hydrometeorological<br />
factors interactions (precipitation, air temperatue,<br />
evaporation) <strong>with</strong> underlying surfaces. But u<strong>nl</strong>ike plain areas<br />
where latitude and distance from the sea serve as main factors<br />
<strong>of</strong> heat and moisture ratio chasacterizing water resources, the<br />
orography becomes the main factor <strong>of</strong> river run<strong>of</strong>f formation in<br />
mountains. The effect <strong>of</strong> topograpb on river run<strong>of</strong>f results in<br />
its direct influence on the flow velocity down the channels,<br />
depending on the slopes <strong>of</strong> watersheds and bqsins top cover. But<br />
the most important effect <strong>of</strong> topography on water resources is developed<br />
by its influence on water balance elements ( recipitation,<br />
evaporation, change <strong>of</strong> water storage in river basinsl;. This<br />
effect is <strong>of</strong> a particular importance in mountainous arid zones<br />
<strong>of</strong> Asia. For example gross precipitation in the mountains <strong>of</strong><br />
Middle Asia, Kazakhstan and Mongolis ranges from 150-lOO mm and<br />
less in areas protected from humid air masses (hollows, slopes<br />
<strong>of</strong> unfavourzble orientation) up to 1500-2000 mm and more on<br />
favourably oriented slopes <strong>of</strong> periphery mountain ridges relative<br />
to air fluxes. The increase <strong>of</strong> precipitation according to elevation<br />
and simultaneous losses by evaporation on high elevations<br />
due to low air temperatures stipulate the improvement <strong>of</strong> conditions<br />
<strong>of</strong> river feeding characteristic for mountain areas as far<br />
as the basin elevation increases.<br />
In connexion <strong>with</strong> the stated above, methods based on the<br />
establishment <strong>of</strong> relations between run<strong>of</strong>f and orographic peculiarities<br />
<strong>of</strong> the location have been accepted in the USSR for the<br />
evaluation <strong>of</strong> water resources in poorly gauged mountain areas.<br />
These orographic peculiarities are as follows: elevation, slope<br />
and orientation <strong>of</strong> the region relative to the direction <strong>of</strong> moistw?e<br />
transfer.<br />
For the evaluation <strong>of</strong> mean annual run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
Q as an index <strong>of</strong><br />
areal water resources the relations between specific discharge<br />
and elevation <strong>of</strong> the watershed, which in majority <strong>of</strong> cases is<br />
expressed as mean weighted elevation (H) are widely used.
147<br />
These relations are established for every region nn %hi? bapis<br />
<strong>of</strong> data obtain9d for gauged watersheds and are uwed ta /?cl;om-ine<br />
normal run<strong>of</strong>f <strong>of</strong> ungauged watersheds in the a2progriat;e repien.<br />
Sirice high mountain areas are very poorly gaiged tbs cvaluri-<br />
tion <strong>of</strong> water resources for such areas Is madß according im<br />
extrapolated portions <strong>of</strong> the dependences Cj E f (II). Data on<br />
precipitation, ablation and liquid glacia?. run<strong>of</strong>f are used %o<br />
make extrapolation more reliable .<br />
In case <strong>of</strong> data on glacierization w&lable they are ursd<br />
both for the extrapolation <strong>of</strong> dependences Q. = f (HI an0 ?or<br />
direct conput;ation <strong>of</strong> mean annual run<strong>of</strong>f iron relat;ively smdl<br />
high mountain areas. According to ths investigations made by<br />
V.L. Schultz /1/ the rise <strong>of</strong> such empirical relations provi
14 8<br />
and subsoils- m is the exponent <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f reduction; I is mean<br />
basin slope [ '/oo).<br />
When river basins are composed <strong>of</strong> karst rocks the effect <strong>of</strong><br />
other azonal factors on river run<strong>of</strong>f may be neglected and o<strong>nl</strong>y<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f changes caused by karst may be taken into account. Hence,<br />
for example, an appropriate correction (<strong>with</strong> negative sign) to<br />
zonal run<strong>of</strong>f for the Kazakh folded area is computed by empirical<br />
e quat ion :<br />
(2)<br />
where: Q is correction (l/sec per 1 km') due to karst effect.<br />
For the evaluation <strong>of</strong> zonal normal run<strong>of</strong>f the maps <strong>of</strong> isolines<br />
<strong>of</strong> normal run<strong>of</strong>f are used; these maps are compiled by<br />
observational data mai<strong>nl</strong>y from the basins fully located <strong>with</strong>in<br />
one climatic zone. The method <strong>of</strong> isolines is usually preferable<br />
in case <strong>of</strong> natural water resources evaluation for large river<br />
basins and for poorly gauged mountain areas as a whole.<br />
Very few maps <strong>of</strong> isolines <strong>of</strong> normal run<strong>of</strong>f plotted for<br />
particular mountain areas are available in the USSR. Since the<br />
initial &ta are linited, these maps are small-scaled, mai<strong>nl</strong>y<br />
<strong>of</strong> 1 : 2 500 O00 scale not more; these maps are hardly suitable<br />
for the estimation <strong>of</strong> normal annual ryn<strong>of</strong>f from small and middlesize<br />
watersheâs not exceeding 1000 km . Thus, the method <strong>of</strong> isolines<br />
provides a sufficiently accurate determination <strong>of</strong> normal annua3<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f mai<strong>nl</strong>y for large mountain watersheds (more than 1000 km 1.<br />
The method <strong>of</strong> collective analom based on the graphs <strong>of</strong> relations<br />
between run<strong>of</strong>f and mean basin elevation is used bn majoritg <strong>of</strong><br />
cases for the computation <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f from middle-size basins, i.e.<br />
more than 500-600 km2. When computing run<strong>of</strong>f from small basins<br />
and <strong>of</strong>ten larger basins the use <strong>of</strong> the two mentioned methods<br />
is not always reasonable. It is <strong>of</strong>ten explained by inadequacy <strong>of</strong><br />
initial information on run<strong>of</strong>f and by a considerable effect <strong>of</strong><br />
azonal factors in mountains; in this connexion even basins <strong>with</strong><br />
similar elevation <strong>with</strong>in the same mountain region may differ<br />
greatly in the conditions <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f formation and its quantitative<br />
characteristics.<br />
In such cases the determination <strong>of</strong> normal annual run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
from mountain watersheds located in conditions <strong>of</strong> sufficient<br />
and excessive moistening is made by a combined solution <strong>of</strong><br />
equations <strong>of</strong> water and heat balances. An indubitable advantage<br />
<strong>of</strong> this method is in the fact it ensures a relatively accurate<br />
determination <strong>of</strong> normal annual run<strong>of</strong>f not o<strong>nl</strong>y from large<br />
mountai basins but from watersheds <strong>with</strong> the areas not exceeding<br />
1000 km 9 .<br />
The computation is based on the equation <strong>of</strong> mean long-term<br />
annual water balance where normal annual run<strong>of</strong>f is determined
149<br />
by the difference between precipitation P and evaporation E:<br />
Q= P-E (3)<br />
When usin@; this equation it is essential to obtain a<br />
reliable accuracy in determination <strong>of</strong> noml annual precipitation<br />
and evaporation. The method is applicable for such mountain<br />
areas where the available hydrometeorological network provides an<br />
objective evaluation <strong>of</strong> precipitation distribution compared <strong>with</strong><br />
run<strong>of</strong>f. In this case it should be kept in mind that evaporation<br />
is less variable over area and altitudinal zones compared <strong>with</strong><br />
run<strong>of</strong>f and it ILK' be computed for mountain watersheds <strong>with</strong> a<br />
sufficient accuracy .<br />
It should be noted that in equation (3) underground water<br />
exchange <strong>with</strong> adjacent watersheds is not taken into account1 As<br />
a rule, this component is not big in mountains especially in<br />
permafrost zone. But in cases when its valiles are commensurable<br />
<strong>with</strong> the other values <strong>of</strong> equation (3) the account <strong>of</strong> this<br />
component is essential.<br />
The determination <strong>of</strong> one <strong>of</strong> the parameters in equation (3)<br />
i.e. normal annual precipitation, is made <strong>with</strong> the use <strong>of</strong><br />
graphs <strong>of</strong> precipitation and elevation <strong>with</strong> the account <strong>of</strong> local<br />
orographic peculiarities. In this case correction should be introduced<br />
for the initial data which take into account the underestimation<br />
<strong>of</strong> precipitation by standard precipitation gauges.<br />
Computation <strong>of</strong> normal annual evaporation is made by equation:<br />
where: W is radiation balance <strong>of</strong> the moistened surface; Wa is<br />
tubule& heat exchange; L is latent heat <strong>of</strong> evaporation; e<br />
is base <strong>of</strong> natural logarithms; th is hyperbolic tangent.<br />
Equation (4) is a precised version <strong>of</strong> M.I. Budyko's equation<br />
/3/ due to Wa value.<br />
In the right <strong>of</strong> equation (4) three unknown parameters are<br />
intrmduced: P, W and W .<br />
The way <strong>of</strong> de$ermina!ion <strong>of</strong> normal annual precipitation ie given<br />
above .<br />
The value6 <strong>of</strong> radiation balance <strong>of</strong> the moistened surface may<br />
be taken from appropriate maps or computed. For many areas <strong>with</strong>in<br />
the USSR territory there exist design formulae for W<br />
determina-<br />
tion according to latitude and elevation <strong>of</strong> the loca%LQ. In<br />
particular, for Trans-Baikal area /4/ such formula may be<br />
presented as follows:
150<br />
where: '9" is mean watershed latitude; h = (H - SOO ) is the<br />
exceedence <strong>of</strong> mean watershed latitude over 500 a.s.1. When<br />
computing radiation balance <strong>of</strong> the moistened surface <strong>of</strong><br />
mountain watersheds its variations according to the exposure<br />
and steepness <strong>of</strong> slopes are taken into account.<br />
The uetermination <strong>of</strong> Wa as well as Wp is made either according<br />
to appropriate maps or, in case <strong>of</strong> available data on mean<br />
long-term monthly air temperature, water vapour pressure and<br />
total cloudiness, by a combined solution <strong>of</strong> heat balance<br />
equation and the equation <strong>of</strong> Magnus. This method is presented<br />
in detail in some publications /5,6/. When using equation (4)<br />
it should be noted that mean long-term annual values <strong>of</strong> W<br />
and W are rather stable characteristics slowly changing {ver<br />
territory a d altitudinal zones.<br />
After computing normal annual evaporation it is possible to<br />
estimate mean long-term annual run<strong>of</strong>f by equation (3).<br />
It should be noted that the presented scheme <strong>of</strong> computation<br />
may be changed for watersheds located in low and middle-height<br />
mountains. As to watersheds covering high mountain zone, this<br />
method <strong>of</strong> combined aolution <strong>of</strong> water and heat balances for<br />
normal annual run<strong>of</strong>f determination may be applied as well;<br />
the difference is that the number <strong>of</strong> terms in water balance<br />
equation increases ( it is essential to take into account the<br />
ablation <strong>of</strong> glaciers, melting <strong>of</strong> snow fields, separate account<br />
<strong>of</strong> evasoration from different types <strong>of</strong> underïying surfaces<br />
in high aountains, i.e. ice, snow, talus and rocks).<br />
The evaluation <strong>of</strong> long-term variations <strong>of</strong> surface water<br />
resources <strong>of</strong> poorly gauged mountain areas is usually made &y an<br />
analytical frequency cume <strong>of</strong> annual river run<strong>of</strong>f. The values<br />
<strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f variation coefficient C, essential for its plotting<br />
are evaluated by their regional empirical relations be tween<br />
normal run<strong>of</strong>f, mean weighted elevation <strong>of</strong> the watershed or the<br />
glacierization area. These relations are established according<br />
to observational data from the gauged rivers, and the coefficient<br />
<strong>of</strong> asymmetry C is established by the ratio <strong>of</strong> this parameter<br />
and coefficient <strong>of</strong> variations for the gauged rivers <strong>of</strong> the region.<br />
Ìimpirical dependences <strong>of</strong> variation coefficient <strong>of</strong> annual<br />
runo?f and . the determining factors for ungauged mountain areas<br />
are usually<br />
expressed by equations:
where: a, b, c and r are regional parameters; H is mean<br />
weighted elevation <strong>of</strong> watershed; is exponent <strong>of</strong> watershed<br />
glacierieation(percentage from the total draina@ area),<br />
The selection <strong>of</strong> the equation depends on the character <strong>of</strong><br />
151<br />
river feeding. The dependence <strong>of</strong> variation ûoeff icient <strong>of</strong> annusl<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f and specific river discharge (equation 6) are used maim for areas <strong>with</strong> a considerable portion <strong>of</strong> rainfalls in mountain<br />
river feeding.<br />
When estimating C, for ungauged mountain rivers <strong>of</strong> the arid<br />
zone where the effect <strong>of</strong> snow melt water is <strong>of</strong> particular<br />
importance, the preference is given to the relations <strong>of</strong> variation<br />
coefficient and mean weighted watershed elevation (equation 7).<br />
For rivers located in basins where glaciers cover more than<br />
IQ% <strong>of</strong> the drainage area the dependence <strong>of</strong> C, upon mean weighted<br />
elevation is usually broken and the preference is iven %o empirical<br />
relations between Cv and basin glacierization ? equation 8).<br />
If there are no data available on the amount <strong>of</strong> glaciers then<br />
instead <strong>of</strong> glacierization rate for C, determination <strong>of</strong> ungauged<br />
mountain rivers its indirect indices are sometimes used showing<br />
the relations between the area <strong>of</strong> altitudinal zone where glaciers<br />
are located and the area <strong>of</strong> the whole basin.<br />
For the determination <strong>of</strong> variation coefficient <strong>of</strong>-annual run-<br />
<strong>of</strong>f <strong>of</strong> mountain rivers the equation recommended by LP. Voskre-<br />
senski /7/ is used as well :<br />
where: X is regional parameter.<br />
The coefficient <strong>of</strong> asymmetry <strong>of</strong> mean annual run<strong>of</strong>f for ungauged<br />
mountain rivers is usually accepted as C, = 2Cv.<br />
RE F E R E N C E S<br />
1. Schultz V.L. Reki Srednei Asii (Middle Asia rivers). Pt.1 and<br />
2, Hydrometeorol. Publ. House, Leningrad, 1965.<br />
2. Lavrentiev P.F., Semenov V.A., Khitrunova M.S. Uchet sredaei<br />
vysotg vodosborov, ikh orientatsii i azonalnykh faktorov<br />
podstila jushche i poverknosti gri rasc hetakh srednego<br />
godovogo stoka rek Severnogo Kazakhstana (The account <strong>of</strong><br />
mean basins elevation, their orientation and azonal facGor’P<br />
<strong>of</strong> the underlying surface when computing mean annual run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
<strong>of</strong> north Eazakhstan rivers), Trana. <strong>of</strong> Kaz. NIGBdI,<br />
VOI. 41, 1971.<br />
3. Budyko M.I. Teplovoi balans zemnoi poverkhnoeti (Heat baleme<br />
<strong>of</strong> the Earth’s surface). Hydrometeorol. Publ. House,<br />
Leningrad, 1956.
152<br />
4. Vuglinski V.S. Yetodika rascheta radiatsionnogo balansa<br />
gornoi territorii i ee primenenie na primere<br />
basseina r. Vitini (Methods for the computation <strong>of</strong><br />
radiation balance <strong>of</strong> mountain area and its applica-<br />
tion illustrated by the Vitim river basin). Trans.<br />
<strong>of</strong> GGI, 1972, ~01. 199.<br />
5. Vuglinski V.S. Raschet normy godovogo stoka neisuchennykh<br />
gornykh rek s primeneniem uravneniy vocino o i teplovo-<br />
go balansov (na priiaere basseina r. Vitimy. (Compu-<br />
tation <strong>of</strong> normal annual run<strong>of</strong>f <strong>of</strong> ungauged mountain<br />
rivers WI th the use <strong>of</strong> equations <strong>of</strong> water and heat<br />
balances !strated by the Vitfm river basin).<br />
Trans. <strong>of</strong> &(GI, 1972, vol. 200.<br />
6. Anàreyanov V.G. Vnutrigodovoe raspredelenie rechnogo<br />
stoka (Annual stream flow distribution), Leningrad,<br />
Hyàrometeorol. Publ. House, 1961.<br />
as Voskresenski K,P. Horma i izmenchivost godovogo stoka rek<br />
Sovetskogo Sojusa (Normal annual run<strong>of</strong>f and its<br />
variations for the rivers <strong>of</strong> the Soviet Union).<br />
Leningrad, Hydrometeorol. Publ. House, 1962,
IMPROVEMENT OF HYDROLOGICAL INFORMATION FC?. FX.?:LCT<br />
DESIGN BY SHORT TERM MEASURES -<br />
1. Introduction<br />
GENERAL REPORT<br />
by<br />
Dr. John Rodda<br />
At the present time, when the amount <strong>of</strong> attention given to all asjxcta <strong>of</strong><br />
th:: environnent is growing rapidly, the collect ion <strong>of</strong> enviromental<br />
information is increasing in importance, especicaìly for use as o m ~f the<br />
bases Of measures for enviromental protection and combatting pollution.<br />
Kere the hydrologist and meteorologist are amongst the more fortam.tc <strong>of</strong><br />
environmental scientists: they probably have at their dislwaal a lager<br />
body <strong>of</strong> information relevant to their needs than is available tc oihcr<br />
scientists in their particular fields. On the other hand it is true to c . ~<br />
that many watcr resources projects are designed <strong>with</strong> inaclc::imte data, indcd,<br />
sometimes <strong>with</strong> virtual1.y no date zt all.<br />
likely that wrong decisions will be taken, that wrone critcria will be<br />
selected and that inappropriate and uneconomic designs will be adopted.<br />
The end product can be a water resources system which pstly or entirely<br />
fails to meet the objectives that were foreseen for it, the bexr‘its it<br />
pro&uces,bcaring little relation to the capital invested.<br />
2. zata and Networks<br />
The classic response to this situation is to collect noce and m ro data<br />
for thc national archive. Aniassine; a large quaiitily or^ ìucirologi.:al<br />
information is even seen as an end in itself and virtus.lly mJ’ 5.ncrease<br />
in the total is considered <strong>of</strong> value.<br />
particularly where national data collection propmr,:es are nct plmned<br />
scieiitifically.<br />
types, generally rainfdl and streamflow records, other LW’C~S heina very<br />
largcly neglected; for example, sediment surveys and soil muistiire records.<br />
St&tions in the data network are <strong>of</strong>ten badly distributed, t5m-C arc<br />
differences in the lengths <strong>of</strong> records and their quality is frcqixntly<br />
suspect. Such networks usually produce information inefficienti.;? and<br />
uneconomically - the oppoeite <strong>of</strong> the true objective <strong>of</strong> network &si@.<br />
Scientific design would produce a system whioh would add the moi;:<br />
know1ede;e for the least effort. This sytem would ncit o<strong>nl</strong>y consïf;t <strong>of</strong><br />
station-type time series observations, but also <strong>of</strong> surveys <strong>of</strong> various<br />
kinds, including questionnaires 2nd oensusee. It would not be ti riKi8 c;’stcrn,<br />
but one that would be altered and amended in response to needa and as<br />
objectives change.<br />
Lui if th.e purpose <strong>of</strong> a network can be stated clczrly .then itn ?tasip is<br />
likely’to be fecilitated.<br />
Inadequste duta m ke it more<br />
This is not alwRjr:; the CasQ,(<br />
Usually the bulk <strong>of</strong> the information is <strong>of</strong> cno or two<br />
üf ooume networks iisly have various objectivce<br />
F’or project design purposes a network would have
I54<br />
a different form and composition from a network installed for researoh<br />
purposes, although both would be COmPOnCntO <strong>of</strong> and contributors to the<br />
national network which would itself provide the overall information framework.<br />
in the oontext <strong>of</strong> this symposium it is important to consider firat<br />
the form <strong>of</strong> the national network and the attributes that would fit it best<br />
to the needs <strong>of</strong> project deoign end second the project nbtwoa itself.<br />
3. Data PrODertißS<br />
Langbein (1972) wpsted that water data, And thus the n dork for<br />
acquiring them, have three intrinsio properties:<br />
and continuity. Imoartialitg relates to the aganoy or Bgenoiee that<br />
operate the network and archive the infomatttion from it. In its<br />
Perception <strong>of</strong> data problems, the agency itself tends to introduce R bias<br />
in the data, a bias towards ita own speaialty. Por example M organieatioii<br />
concerned <strong>with</strong> water suppl.y wouiû tend to dieregard infomation about<br />
floods and the means <strong>of</strong> colleoting these data. One solution to this<br />
problem is for basic data oollection to be the remit <strong>of</strong> en agenay <strong>with</strong>out<br />
opcratiûïìal or cxccative roles, such ôs onc ifi-dve3 in reeearch.<br />
Relevance <strong>of</strong> the data then becmes important because thie type <strong>of</strong> data<br />
agency is one stage removed from the problems to which the data arc applied.<br />
On the other hand, this avoids what Langbein calls the "squeeking wheel<br />
principle whereby attention is continually uircctod toward8 mrrently urgcrì:<br />
problema at the expense <strong>of</strong> the existing balance <strong>of</strong> the network and its<br />
oapacity to be employed for solving future as yet -own problems,<br />
Continuity follows from the fact that hydrological datu are time-dependent,<br />
hence their collection needs to be oontinuous. Continuity ia at risk<br />
at times <strong>of</strong> national atresa euch as during tine <strong>of</strong> war, -turd disaster<br />
or finanoiai stringency.<br />
agencies are required to alter their progremmos and those not directed to<br />
olear and easily recornisable objeotives tend to be curtailed.<br />
4. The Fctwork<br />
impartiality, relevance<br />
Organisationai change ia also a haed;<br />
Ideally the oountrywide hydrologiosl network should preoeed development,<br />
invariably the reverse is true. Most national networks have resultßd<br />
from ad hoc responses to particular problems. Pow networks Beem to have<br />
reached the optimum in termo <strong>of</strong> distribution <strong>of</strong> stations, types <strong>of</strong> data<br />
and form <strong>of</strong> amhive. Perhaps the difficulty <strong>of</strong> deoiding what the<br />
optimum is one reason for this, although Dswdy et al (1972) put forward the<br />
idea <strong>of</strong> the leoel <strong>of</strong> information being optiwl when decisions involviq<br />
this infomation become insensitive to its m her inorease. !Phis ooucept<br />
has the difficulty that the optimum information level and thus tho optimum<br />
network differs for different objeotivee, so that it m w not be readily
applicable to a malti-purpose countrywide network.<br />
problem <strong>of</strong> scale and the fact that the component parts <strong>of</strong> the hydrolo&al<br />
network may have developed separatoly crnd to differing degrees.<br />
155<br />
the evaporation network and the water quality network are u<strong>nl</strong>ikely to have<br />
been co-ordinated and this may apply to the other variables.<br />
5. Scale <strong>of</strong> Networks<br />
The factor <strong>of</strong> soale ia pu1 important point to consider in project design for<br />
there are differences between information needs on national and local<br />
scales. At the national level tho network would consist <strong>of</strong> long term,<br />
bench mark primary stations for sampling in the main, variations in time.<br />
The distribution <strong>of</strong> theso stations would relate to the degree <strong>of</strong> the<br />
country's development and its hydrological heterogeneity. in other words<br />
a country <strong>with</strong> uniform climate, geolot;y and relief, a small number <strong>of</strong><br />
inhzbitants utilizi<strong>nl</strong>: few <strong>of</strong> the resources woulù most probtrbly possess<br />
a less developed network than oneaith diVerBe physical features, a<br />
large population and a strong industrial base.<br />
lhe twu couiitrias would present a siuiLr GGZ~IYLS:, bUt both crtrcrkz<br />
should necessarily be capable <strong>of</strong> utilization, at the vem least, for<br />
accounting for the resource and for the warning <strong>of</strong> hazards.<br />
1Òcal scale stations would tend to be <strong>of</strong> a short term, secondary tyae<br />
(Gandin 1967) established to sample variability in space.<br />
network would be a major part <strong>of</strong> this secondary network.<br />
secondary network would mostly serve current information needs, the baoio<br />
countrywide network would satisfy future demands (Laagbein 1965).<br />
6.<br />
Use <strong>of</strong> Basic Network for Roject Desim Purposes<br />
Information from the basio network can be employed to provide estimates<br />
<strong>of</strong> hydrological variables for any Given point <strong>with</strong>in a country and can<br />
thus be applied for project desi-, purposes. The estimâtion may be<br />
undertaken SbjJly bf interpolation between isopleths on B countrywide<br />
map, constructed from the basic network. observations.<br />
data fram the network can be applied in a mapping technique suoh as<br />
the application <strong>of</strong> the grid system for storage and processing hydrological<br />
information from a large area and its use in relating the hydrolgical<br />
variables to the area's physical characteristics (Solomon et al 1968).<br />
Maps <strong>of</strong> mean annual precipitation, temperature and waporation were<br />
constructed by this method and then employed <strong>with</strong> measures <strong>of</strong> the<br />
topograpliy to develop a map <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f.<br />
There io also the<br />
importanoe <strong>of</strong> maps, maps also being important to that regionalisation<br />
type <strong>of</strong> approaoh. For example, measureß <strong>of</strong> the pertinent eurface or<br />
For exanple<br />
The information needs <strong>of</strong><br />
At the<br />
The project<br />
Whereas the<br />
Alternatively<br />
This approach stresses the
156<br />
subsurface features <strong>of</strong> an area whioh can be mapped or measiired in the<br />
field are related to a otatistic Of the hydrological vari;:ble in queetion.<br />
Relationships between mean annual rainfall amounts and niemures <strong>of</strong> -Lhe<br />
topo6.raph.y such ae alevationplope and exposure have been widely de.lcrmined,<br />
likewise relations between the mean annual flood and catchment characteristics<br />
including area,channel slope anù drainé@ density.<br />
The paper 'sIrnprovement <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f records in smaller watershede, based on<br />
permeability <strong>of</strong> the geological subsurfacess by Dr Bala&Xun follows this<br />
2<br />
type <strong>of</strong> appl-oach. Records from basins less than 25OKu1 in area locaied<br />
in li!? USA and Central Europe were used in thio study. P~ak run<strong>of</strong>fs<br />
(m3 sec -' Km2) <strong>of</strong> 100 year return period were related to basin size, the<br />
geological character <strong>of</strong> those basins assessed from permeability<br />
certain storm sires and intensities and also to the slope <strong>of</strong> the basin.<br />
Dr Halasi-Kun siicgests there is evidence for a significant correlation<br />
betuem permeability and peak run<strong>of</strong>f but that the geological effect<br />
2<br />
"fades" for basins larger than 235h . This paper also ermines 50 year<br />
2<br />
low flows in the same bapjns (1 sec-' Km ) and again relates ihese flow6<br />
to p3OlOC;iC;rl characteristics. The author concludes that including<br />
permeability improves this type <strong>of</strong> approach and <strong>of</strong> course he is correct<br />
in the sense that the inclusion <strong>of</strong> any further uncorrelated but<br />
quantifiable catchment characteristics is a step forward.<br />
he hacl included as much <strong>of</strong> his basic data that it was possibla to<br />
publish.<br />
It does not deal <strong>with</strong> estimation from catchment characteristics but <strong>with</strong><br />
reconstruction <strong>of</strong> records from a shorter period <strong>of</strong> more complote records<br />
applied to a longer period <strong>of</strong> more limited information. This is the<br />
paper by Ih. Kovecs and Dr Kolnar: "Determination <strong>of</strong> snow water<br />
eqyivslent and enow melt water by thickness <strong>of</strong> snow cover data''<br />
One wishes<br />
Another paper submitted for this section <strong>of</strong> the programme which (]:!ala<br />
uith information from the basic network is not strictly in the mine cztegorg.<br />
Snow<br />
depth has been observed at about 1000 stations in Hungary for 100 years<br />
and since 1960, water equivalent has also been measured at 60 stations.<br />
From studios <strong>of</strong> the bulk density <strong>of</strong> fresh snow ( Y min), mow saturatcd<br />
<strong>with</strong> capillmy water ( Y k) and melting mow ( 5' ma), snow depth and the<br />
number <strong>of</strong> layers <strong>of</strong> enow developed during accumulation (R)o tanned the<br />
critical bulk density, and R.<br />
between y max and R and dao a method for obtaining the duration <strong>of</strong><br />
melting from air temperature records during the molting period. These<br />
relations are then applied to the hindcasting <strong>of</strong> snow water equivalents<br />
from depth measurements and to forecasting duuration <strong>of</strong> the melt period<br />
and potential volume <strong>of</strong> melt water.<br />
Then they arrive at a similar relation<br />
The predicted snow water e-ivalent?:<br />
are oomparcd <strong>with</strong> meamred volumes at one site for part <strong>of</strong> 1963 and the
match between them seems reasonably good.<br />
provided for the enow melt cdoulations.<br />
15 7<br />
The paper by Ur Beard œHydrological dzta fill in and Network Desi&* is<br />
similar to the previous one in that it deals <strong>with</strong> the extension <strong>of</strong><br />
records from stream gaugingetations <strong>with</strong> long recoi.de to stations <strong>with</strong><br />
o<strong>nl</strong>y short ~%cordS. A stoolustic model, which can accept montly data, is<br />
based upon multiple linear regressions, using fransformed variables, and<br />
these are derived from each station for eachGalendar month. To illustrate<br />
what happens as a result <strong>of</strong> chanoe variations in small samples, 10,000<br />
5-year sample8 were drawn from a normal population and their means and<br />
standard deviations oalculated. For each sample items were perated and<br />
their location in the parent population identified. It was found that in<br />
the oase <strong>of</strong> extremes tco many extreme vdues were generated indicating a<br />
bias in the estimates <strong>of</strong> extremes.mzde from small samples. To overcome<br />
this bias a transom hinotion was generated.<br />
(equation 2) showing the nucber ~f itefie 3: iiaedid in the shrt-tem<br />
recorà than can improve the accuracy <strong>of</strong> the short-term mean so that it ia<br />
reliable as the mean obtained l'rom the lon&er reoord Values <strong>of</strong> I, are<br />
tabulated for various correlations and samplo ßizes against the longer<br />
record length (table 2). Four different %year soquencee were selected<br />
from 40 years <strong>of</strong> reoord at one station and for each <strong>of</strong> tho four cases tho<br />
remaining 35 years were filled in.<br />
for the 40 years <strong>of</strong> reconstructed record ware compared <strong>with</strong> the actual<br />
40 year mean. The process wzs repeated Sor 3 other stations and a matrix<br />
is presented showing 8 comparison <strong>of</strong> statistics derived from these recodo.<br />
The author concludes that for correlations above 0.95 short records need<br />
not be continued beyond 5 years but belar 0.8 short records should be<br />
oontinued. Between these values a study <strong>of</strong> regional variations would<br />
reveal the relative advantage <strong>of</strong> continuing existing stations or starting<br />
new ones.<br />
A similar cornpanson is not<br />
An equation is given<br />
Then the mean flow for the %years and<br />
Arising from studies like theee is the question <strong>of</strong> how estimateo compare<br />
<strong>with</strong> field measurements. Nash and Shaw (1966) in a study <strong>of</strong> United Kingdom<br />
floods, disoovered that even a single year <strong>of</strong> discharge records produced<br />
a more reliable guida to the mean annual flood than the methods <strong>of</strong><br />
estimation then in current use. lore recently the UK Flood Study Team<br />
have found (Sutcliffe 1973) that estimated mean annual floods are <strong>with</strong>in<br />
2 30$ <strong>of</strong> the mean <strong>of</strong> the measured annual maxima for the catchments<br />
studied.<br />
t
158<br />
7.<br />
Short Term Instrumental and’Observational kessurez<br />
There are a number Of constraints to the design <strong>of</strong> a project network,<br />
time probably being the most important. Usually there are o<strong>nl</strong>y 2 or 3<br />
years between the time a Project is conoeived and the time when the<br />
design has to be finalised. The risks involved in employing these<br />
2 or 3 years <strong>of</strong> information is then a maximum but the risks diminish as<br />
the record length inCrcaseS.<br />
more records may be COStly in terms <strong>of</strong> loss <strong>of</strong> benefit from the water<br />
resources system. At some Point a balance will be struck‘ between risk<br />
and benefit: this point will depend upon factors such a8 the type <strong>of</strong><br />
project and the Proportion cf the resource to be develo2ed. Amongfit the<br />
other constraints are those <strong>of</strong> finance, the skills available and the<br />
location <strong>of</strong> the project. Uith adequate funds a well-equipped team can be<br />
brought together and the project placed on a firm footing.<br />
location in terms <strong>of</strong> OlimatC and topopa& can be a very considerable<br />
handicap even <strong>with</strong> a well funded project.<br />
However, deferring a project to accumulate<br />
Depending on the nature <strong>of</strong> the projeot and the informstion it requires<br />
the defiign <strong>of</strong> the network hinges on, the answers to a nimber <strong>of</strong><br />
An unfavourable<br />
questions:<br />
1. How is the information to be obtained?<br />
2. How many sites need it be obtpined from?<br />
3. Where are these sites to be located?<br />
No papers were submitted describing an:! advances in inckwmentation or gouncï<br />
based survey techniques that might be applied to project design.<br />
are new instruments and new methods that could be employed to acquire<br />
information for pro jeot deoign. Batterj operated magnetic tape recording<br />
rain gauges and telemetering gauges proùuce more information more rapidly<br />
than conventional instruments, Automatic weather stations and automatically<br />
operated neutron probes do the same in the fields <strong>of</strong> evaporation aild soil<br />
moisture measuremcnt and then there are automatic dilution gauging devices<br />
for atream flow measurement to say nothing <strong>of</strong> the other methods <strong>of</strong> river<br />
gauging that do not require the conventional stilling well and structure<br />
in the channel.<br />
recent years, but there was o<strong>nl</strong>y one paper submitted to this Section in<br />
this category.<br />
Remote sensing techniques have dvaiced eiiormously in<br />
Hhat about the use <strong>of</strong> aerial photography,radar and the<br />
various forms <strong>of</strong> imagery from satellites?<br />
exception is the paper by Dr leijerink “Svaluation <strong>of</strong> local water resouses<br />
in a semi-arid hard rock region, by using photo-hydrological indices”.<br />
Yet there<br />
They are not mentioned. The<br />
By interpreting aerial photographs an assessment was made <strong>of</strong> the local<br />
water resourcës in part <strong>of</strong> the Cuddapah Basin in south India. Following<br />
field surveys <strong>of</strong> the area‘s geologyssoils and land use the next stop was
to divide the basin into hydrologically homongeous 1andBczpes. The<br />
hyydrology <strong>of</strong> these landscapes was deduced from the photographs from<br />
159<br />
features affected by surface flow and from the characteristics <strong>of</strong> the<br />
superficiel deposits and solid geolow. For example <strong>with</strong>in a particular<br />
landscapo the yield <strong>of</strong> a well is assmiod to be directly related to the<br />
size <strong>of</strong> the irrigated area.<br />
for one landficape and also the recharge areas for those wells;<br />
relationship between these factors giving a guide to yield &B a function<br />
<strong>of</strong> recharce area.<br />
and the results ct the interpretation were checked in the field for the<br />
different relationships.<br />
The question <strong>of</strong> the number <strong>of</strong> sites to be sampled is frequently answered<br />
in terms <strong>of</strong> the funds available for installing and oparating the netuork.<br />
For areas <strong>with</strong>out records <strong>of</strong> any cort,arriving at a number is particularly<br />
difficillt for the number and location <strong>of</strong> stations hincos OA the distribution<br />
<strong>of</strong> the hydrologiczl variable.<br />
according to a predermined grid or according to the distribution <strong>of</strong> elevation.<br />
Another method would be to delimit areas <strong>of</strong> homogeneous topograpbjand<br />
~eolocr and to site one station in each area.<br />
exist it is usually far simpler to deterinine where tÒ site additional<br />
gauges.<br />
This is one <strong>of</strong> the topics discussed in the paper by Kessiers Delhomme and<br />
Delfiner: "Applicaton du Krigeage a' l'optimisation du'une coinpagne<br />
Pluviometrique en zone aride". The subject <strong>of</strong> this paper is the<br />
2<br />
Kadjemeur Wadi in the east <strong>of</strong> Chad , a basin 245Km in area containing<br />
33 rain gauges. Here the technique <strong>of</strong> Kriging is employed to determine<br />
the o ptim weights <strong>of</strong> the gauges in thc network for the calculation <strong>of</strong><br />
the mean basin rainfall.<br />
<strong>of</strong> the method and then they apply it to the description <strong>of</strong> a storm on<br />
6 AU~UQ~ 1966. Thc map obtained by ttìa technique <strong>of</strong> kriging niötohes the<br />
hand drawn isobyetal map very well; in general it produces a broader<br />
smoother interpretation. A comparison <strong>of</strong> the estimates <strong>of</strong> the mean basin<br />
rainfalls is given for Krigingand three other methods, the "hiessen,<br />
mithmetic mean and planimetering methods. In general the results are sirnilar<br />
but the concentration <strong>of</strong> gauges on the western side <strong>of</strong> the basis distorts<br />
the arithmetic mean results ifi some storms.<br />
the problem <strong>of</strong> where to locate an extra page.<br />
gauges<br />
the barain or in the centre.<br />
The areas irrigated by wells were determined<br />
the basin, where the gain <strong>of</strong> information is a maaimum b? construoting<br />
isopeths <strong>of</strong> gain fiyre 8 shows where these two points axe located - on<br />
the<br />
A similar exercise was under-taken for surfzce wa.ter<br />
One method would be to site stations<br />
Where some stations already<br />
The authors provide a background to the theory<br />
Finally the authorsooncider<br />
From the distribution <strong>of</strong><br />
subjectively one would choose a site at the south eastern end <strong>of</strong><br />
Kriging ~ 110~s determination <strong>of</strong>the point in
160<br />
the south eastern boundary and in the centre <strong>of</strong> the basin. There are<br />
various metliods for computing the mean basin .rainfall th8-t have been<br />
advocated recently - various forms Of surfaïri fittinc Sor example.<br />
problcm is that all these methods rely on the accuracy <strong>of</strong> the point<br />
rainfall measurements which we kno~ as being far from accurato. The<br />
question <strong>of</strong>' what is the true mean basin rainfall remalns unanswered.<br />
CONCI Ir3IONS<br />
In the verj lengthy title to thio section in the prop-mme for the<br />
symposium, two separate topics were raised, first the improvement <strong>of</strong><br />
hydrological information by short term measures and second the value<br />
<strong>of</strong> such measures, particularly as expressed by project economios. While<br />
one might argue that the first topic is covere? by the five papers<br />
reviewedobviously,the absence <strong>of</strong> any papers for the second is a<br />
significant pointer to tho need for work on thin topic. The reviewer<br />
proposes that UNESCO and Mi0 should consider strengthening activities<br />
in this field by appointing a rapporteur to prepare a guide to methods<br />
that may be applied to this problem.<br />
References<br />
Langbein W B<br />
Dawdy D R<br />
Gandin L S<br />
Langbein W B<br />
Solomon S I<br />
Nash J E and<br />
Shaw B L<br />
1972 "<strong>Water</strong> Da-ta Today and in Prospect"<br />
flydroloaical Sciences Bulletin<br />
Vol. 17 110 4 PP 369-385<br />
The<br />
Xoss !: E & Matalas N C 1972 9'Application <strong>of</strong> Systems Anulysis<br />
to Network <strong>Design</strong>"<br />
in Casebook on yydrolopical Network Eesia Practice<br />
(Mitor U B Langbein)<br />
wE",O Chapter III - 4.1<br />
i967 "On the PlanninE <strong>of</strong> Metero1o:cicsl Networks<br />
ifil0 Commission for Clirnatoìoa 4i>p<br />
1965 "Nationzl Networks <strong>of</strong> Eydro1o;:ical Data"<br />
Denouvillies J P, Chart E J, kloolley J A Cadou C<br />
1968 "The Use <strong>of</strong> the Grid Square System for Computer Estimation<br />
<strong>of</strong> Precipitation, Tenperature and Run<strong>of</strong>f"<br />
<strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Reseerch<br />
VOI 4 NO 5 pp 919-926<br />
1966 "Mood Frequency as a Function <strong>of</strong> Catchment Characteristics'<br />
S.vm.sosium on River Flood Hydrolorn<br />
Institute <strong>of</strong> civil Engineers, London pp iiFi36<br />
Sutcliff J V 1973 Personal comniunication.<br />
I%ì JORN c RODDA Institute <strong>of</strong> IIydroloa present Department <strong>of</strong> the Dnvironment<br />
Wallingford, Berks. Address: 2 Karsham Street, LOiLO€T SW1<br />
May 1973 ~~~LUm>
ABSTRACT<br />
HYDROLOGIC DATA FILL-IN AND NETWORK DESIGN<br />
Leo R. Beard<br />
A study for the Texas <strong>Water</strong> Development Board in the<br />
USA develops techniques for transferring streamflow data<br />
from locations <strong>of</strong> long record to locations <strong>of</strong> short record<br />
and uses such techniques to determine the relative value <strong>of</strong><br />
continuing current records or establishing new stations.<br />
Multisite stochastic generation techniques are adapted to<br />
the problem <strong>of</strong> filling i,n missing data by use <strong>of</strong> recorded<br />
data at many other locations in the region. Several weaknes-<br />
ses <strong>of</strong> stochastic data analysis techniques are studied and<br />
new procedures are developed to overcome these weaknesses.<br />
Results <strong>of</strong> the study are to be used for planning streamflow<br />
measurement programs.<br />
RESUMEN<br />
Un estudio hecho para el Texas <strong>Water</strong> Development Board<br />
en Los E.E.U.U. desarrolla t6cnicas para transferir datos de<br />
estaciones de largo período a estaciones de corto período y<br />
demuestra el valor relativo para continuar estaciones o esta<br />
blecer nuevas estaciones. La generación de datos probabilís-<br />
ticos para reconstituir el periodo histôrico en varias esta-<br />
ciones en una regibn es demostrado por medio de otras esta-<br />
ciones en la región. Varias deficiencias en el uso del aná-<br />
lisis de datos probabillsticos son estudiadas y nuevos proce<br />
dimientos son desarrollados para sobreponerlas. Los resulta-<br />
dos del estudio serán usados para el planeamiento de progra-<br />
mas en el estudio del cauce en ríos.<br />
(1)<br />
Technical Director, Center for Research lin <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong>,<br />
University <strong>of</strong> Texas, Austin, Texas, USA.<br />
(1)
162<br />
THE DATA FILL-IN PROBLEM<br />
In planning the design and operation <strong>of</strong> water resources projects, it is<br />
necessary to test the plans on the basis <strong>of</strong> at least 40 or 50 years <strong>of</strong> stream flow<br />
that can reasonably be expected to occur in the future. Many projects are<br />
influenced by stream flow and other hydrologic quantities that occur at several<br />
locations simultaneously. Accordingly, adequate testing <strong>of</strong> a design or operation<br />
plan requires 40 or more years <strong>of</strong> simultaneous hydrologic events at several<br />
locations. Usually it is desired to use for this purpose recorded past flows<br />
adjusted, if necessary, to future conditions. In many regions, even the best<br />
hydrologic records are very short, and in all regions there are very short records<br />
that must be extended for planning purposes. Detailed discussions <strong>of</strong> the use <strong>of</strong><br />
synthetic streamflows in addition to historical streamflows are contained in<br />
references 1 and 2.<br />
Also, in anticipation <strong>of</strong> future water resources studies, it is necessary to<br />
determine whether to continue records at existing hydrologic stations or to<br />
establish new stations <strong>with</strong> available resources. It is the purpose <strong>of</strong> this paper<br />
to describe a study made by The University <strong>of</strong> Texas for the Texas <strong>Water</strong> Development<br />
Board in the USA wherein techniques were developed for filling in missing data and<br />
for evaluating short records in relation to long records..<br />
THE DATA FILL-IN MODEL<br />
The computer model used in the study is one developed in the Hydrologic<br />
Engineering Center <strong>of</strong> the Corps <strong>of</strong> Engineers and described in reference 3. It<br />
accepts monthly stream flow, rainfall, evaporation or other hydrologic quantities<br />
as variables. The computation procedure consists <strong>of</strong>:<br />
a. Transforming all variables to logarithms<br />
b. Transforming all logarithms to form normal distributions<br />
c. Deriving, from the data, multiple linear regression equations for<br />
estimating missing quantities from the preceding quantity at the same station and<br />
the current or preceding quantity, depending on availability, at all other stations.<br />
d. Estimating missing quantities using the appropriate regression equation<br />
and a random component, and applying the reverse transform to obtain hydrologic<br />
quantities.<br />
In order to preserve the variance and the correlation matrix relating all<br />
variables, it is necessary to introduce a random component whose standard<br />
deviation is equal to the standard error <strong>of</strong> estimate <strong>of</strong> the regression equation.<br />
The model uses a different regression equation for each station and for each<br />
calendar month at that station, and this regression equation can change every year<br />
depending on the availability <strong>of</strong> data at other stations during the current and
preceding months, Detailed discussion <strong>of</strong> the data fill-in techniques and<br />
associated mathematical problems is contained in reference 4.<br />
S HORT-RECORD EFFECTS<br />
163<br />
When several hydrologic variables are analyzed simultaneously, it is<br />
usual that some records are very short and that records at some stations do not<br />
coincide in time <strong>with</strong> records at other stations. Because these short records<br />
and their apparent interrelationships can be very misleading (due to unrepresenta-<br />
tive occurrences <strong>with</strong>in the short time period), it is necessary to provide controls<br />
in the mathematical model so that unreasonable effects will not be generated.<br />
Also, it is necessary to devise estimates <strong>of</strong> intercorrelation for those pairs <strong>of</strong><br />
variables where simultaneous data are not available.<br />
Each element <strong>of</strong> the correlation matrix is computed using simultaneous<br />
values <strong>of</strong> each pair <strong>of</strong> variables after they have been transformed to normal. For<br />
those stations where no simultaneous values exists, correlation coefficients<br />
are estimated by examining the common correlation coefficients that each <strong>of</strong> these<br />
variables has <strong>with</strong> each <strong>of</strong> the other variables in the system. This yields information<br />
by which the maximum and minimum logical correlation coefficient between the<br />
two variables can be established. After this has been done for all other variables,<br />
the correlation between these 2 stations is established as an average <strong>of</strong> the logical<br />
maximum and minimum values. This is a necessary step for completing the correla-<br />
tion matrix fromwhich regression equations must be computed.<br />
Another short-period effect that can have serious consequences in planning<br />
is the instability <strong>of</strong> the mean and standard deviations <strong>of</strong> the logarithms <strong>of</strong><br />
hydrologic quantities. It is possible that, when records are as short as 4 or 5<br />
years, unusually extreme values can occur. When this happens, extrapolation to<br />
40 or 50 years can result in unreasonably extreme quantities being generated.<br />
Similarly, in such short records, it is possible that no large or small events would<br />
occur, in which case extrapolation to long periods might not include events that<br />
would normally occur in such periods.<br />
Table 1 illustrates what happens as a result <strong>of</strong> these small-sample chance<br />
variations. Here, 10,000 5-year samples were drawn from a normal population,<br />
and the unbiased mean and standard deviation were computed for each. Then,<br />
for each sample, 5 items were generated using these sample statistics, and their<br />
location in the true parent population identified. In the fourth line under ratios, it<br />
is shown that far too many extreme values were generated in this manner. Thus,<br />
there is a significant bias in estimates made from small samples. In order to<br />
overcome this, the following empirical transform function to be applied to generated<br />
devia tes was developed:<br />
X I = x - . ~~x~/(N-U~'~<br />
in which I<br />
X<br />
X<br />
N<br />
=<br />
=<br />
=<br />
adjusted deviate (absolute value)<br />
generated deviate (absolute value)<br />
sample size
164<br />
II)<br />
LI<br />
6<br />
H<br />
O<br />
O<br />
O<br />
O<br />
Ln<br />
Ln<br />
al<br />
N<br />
m<br />
al<br />
a<br />
-4<br />
.-4<br />
E<br />
cn<br />
LI<br />
O<br />
w<br />
v><br />
al<br />
m<br />
><br />
al<br />
U<br />
-4<br />
n<br />
ry<br />
O<br />
r:<br />
O<br />
-4<br />
rn<br />
LI<br />
al<br />
a<br />
II)<br />
-4<br />
n<br />
<strong>nl</strong>9mœI-<br />
V, ri19<br />
m<br />
8<br />
-I<br />
-<br />
b-<br />
O<br />
c b
The last line under ratios in Table 1 illustrates that this formula produces a<br />
very nearly normal distribution <strong>of</strong> values generated from a large number <strong>of</strong><br />
small-sample statistics.<br />
STABILITY PROVISIONS<br />
165<br />
The model used in this study for data fill-in includes a number <strong>of</strong><br />
features that are necessary in arder to produce stable projections when using<br />
short and intermittent records. When the correlation matrix that was derived<br />
as discussed above is used in constructing a regression equation, it is entirely<br />
possible that the assembled Correlation coefficients will be mutually inconsistent,<br />
since they are not based on simultaneous data. If this occurs, it simply means<br />
that the quantity to be estimated is over-defined and that some <strong>of</strong> the inconsistent<br />
data must be removed for the purpose <strong>of</strong> estimating that particular quantity. This<br />
is accomplished automatically in the computer by testing for consistency and,<br />
when the correlation coefficient exceeds unity, eliminating that variable in the<br />
equation which has the lowest direct correlation <strong>with</strong> the quantity to be estimated.<br />
This elimination process is continued automatically until the correlation<br />
coefficient becomes less than unity.<br />
Even though the correlation'matrix is consistent, it can still be highly<br />
unstable. This occurs usually when 2 <strong>of</strong> the explanatory variables are highly<br />
interdependent. One indication <strong>of</strong> this condition is the occurrence <strong>of</strong> very<br />
high regression coefficients <strong>of</strong> opposite signs for those 2 variables. The test<br />
for this condition uses the beta coefficient, which is the regression coefficient<br />
that results when each <strong>of</strong> the variables is adjusted to unit variance (it thus<br />
measures the direct degree <strong>of</strong> impact <strong>of</strong> each variable on the regression estimate) .<br />
If any beta coefficient exceeds 1.5 , variables are eliminated from the regression<br />
study until this condition no longer exists. In this manner, a primary cause <strong>of</strong><br />
generating unreasonable quantities is eliminated.<br />
REQUIREMENTS FOR MATHEMATICAL ACCURACY<br />
Experience <strong>with</strong> the use <strong>of</strong> this model for hydrologic data fill-in has<br />
indicated that mathematical accuracy, integrity, and continuity are absolutely<br />
essential in order to avoid unreasonable estimates. Many attempts have been<br />
made to smooth the statistics and correlation coefficients from month to month<br />
throughout the year in order to stabilize the estimates, but these have usually<br />
resulted in mathematical problems that could not be readily overcome. Attempts<br />
have also been made to adjust coefficients <strong>with</strong>in the correlation matrix in such<br />
a manner as to remove inconsistencies and increase stability, but these also<br />
have resulted in erratic computation. It has become apparent that the regression<br />
equation for estimating a missing value must be used exactly as calculated<br />
from the observed or filled-in data.
166<br />
The transform function used for converting flows to normal has also<br />
been a source <strong>of</strong> serious mathematical difficulty. If the data being transformed<br />
are highly skewed, transformed values can become highly erratic, particularly<br />
for small samples. In order to stabilize this transform, hydrologic quantities<br />
whose lower limit is zero are first transformed to logarithms (after adding a<br />
small increment). The size <strong>of</strong> this increment is then adjusted so that the<br />
skew <strong>of</strong> the logarithms does not differ much from zero. Then the approximate<br />
Pearson type III transform function appears to be completely adequate for<br />
transforming the logarithms to normal. However, when the skew coefficient <strong>of</strong><br />
the untransformed values differs from zero by more than a value <strong>of</strong> about 0.5,<br />
very serious transform problems can occur.<br />
V&UE OF DATA FILL-IN<br />
It can be shown that adjustment <strong>of</strong> short-record statistics by use <strong>of</strong><br />
long-record correlated data can result in improvement <strong>of</strong> the accuracy <strong>of</strong> the<br />
mean value in accordance <strong>with</strong> the following equation:<br />
in which<br />
N1 = number <strong>of</strong> items in short record<br />
N2 =<br />
R , =<br />
number <strong>of</strong> items in long record<br />
cross correlation coefficient<br />
N1 = number <strong>of</strong> items that would be needed in the short record to<br />
obtain an accuracy <strong>of</strong> the mean that is equivalent to that<br />
obtainable by the adjustment.<br />
Some values obtained <strong>with</strong> this equation are illustrated in table 2.<br />
In filling in missing values <strong>of</strong> monthly streamflows by correlation <strong>with</strong><br />
long-record stations, correlation coefficients vary from month-to-month, so<br />
there is not a simple relationship that will show how much value is obtained<br />
by extending short records in this manner. However, a group <strong>of</strong> 4 stations having<br />
40 years <strong>of</strong> simultaneous data was used to estimate the increase in reliability <strong>of</strong><br />
average-flow estimates based on 5 years <strong>of</strong> data correlated <strong>with</strong> 40 years <strong>of</strong> data<br />
at near-by locations. The experiment was conducted as follows:
Table 2<br />
Theoretically Equivalent Sample Size<br />
for Computing Equally Reliable Mean Value<br />
167<br />
Correlation Coefficient<br />
Sample<br />
Size .5 .8 .9 .95 .98<br />
Sample Size <strong>of</strong> Related Variable = 40<br />
5 6.4 11.4 17.2 23.8 31.3<br />
10 12.3 19.2 25.5 31 .O 35.8<br />
20 22.9 29.4 33.6 36.4 38.5<br />
40 40 .O 40 .O 40 .O 40 .O 40 .O<br />
Sample Size <strong>of</strong> Related Variable = 100<br />
5 6.6 12.8 21.7 35.1 57.1<br />
10 12.9 23.6 . 36.9 53.3 73.7<br />
20 25 .O 41 .O 56.8 71.9 86.3<br />
40 47.1 64.9 77.8 87.2 94.4<br />
Starting <strong>with</strong> one station, four different 5-year sequences were selected<br />
from the record. For each <strong>of</strong> these, data were filled in for the remaining 35 years.<br />
For each <strong>of</strong> these 5-year sequences, the mean flow for the 5 years and the<br />
mean flow for the 40 years <strong>of</strong> filled in sequence were compared <strong>with</strong> the mean<br />
flow for the 40 years <strong>of</strong> actual record at the station. Standard errors from the<br />
40-year recorded mean were computed.<br />
The ratios <strong>of</strong> the standard error <strong>of</strong> the 40-year filled-in data mean to<br />
the standard error <strong>of</strong> the 5-year data mean are shown in table 3 in the row<br />
designated as obsenred. This process was repeated for each <strong>of</strong> the 4 stations in<br />
order to obtain the 12 observed values <strong>of</strong> table 3.<br />
The expected ratios shown in table 3 were computed as the inverse<br />
ratios <strong>of</strong> the square root <strong>of</strong> effective record lengths computed from equation 2.<br />
The standard-error ratios thus obtained are somewhat larger than expected,<br />
partly due to the fact that the 40-year record mean is not the true long-term<br />
mean and partly due to the variation <strong>of</strong> monthly correlation coefficients from the<br />
correlation coefficients <strong>of</strong> annual flows shown in table 3.
168<br />
Short<br />
Record<br />
Sta tion<br />
1685<br />
Correl coef<br />
Observed<br />
Expected<br />
1675<br />
Correl coef<br />
Observed<br />
Expected<br />
1710<br />
Correl coef<br />
Observed<br />
Expect ed<br />
1730<br />
Correl coef<br />
Observed<br />
Expected<br />
Table 3<br />
Ratios <strong>of</strong> Standard Error <strong>of</strong> Fill-in<br />
Mean to Observed Mean for 5-year Records<br />
Correlated <strong>with</strong> 40-year Records<br />
1685<br />
.97<br />
.75<br />
.42<br />
.82 .79<br />
1 .o9 1 .O3<br />
.65 .68<br />
Long-Record Station<br />
1675 1710<br />
.97 .82<br />
.51 .82<br />
.42 .65<br />
.79<br />
.95<br />
.68<br />
.73 .75 .78<br />
.74 .92 .30<br />
.73 .72 .69<br />
1730<br />
.73<br />
.80<br />
.73<br />
.75<br />
.86<br />
.72<br />
.78<br />
1 .O7<br />
.69<br />
Although the results shown in table 3 are somewhat erratic due to the use<br />
<strong>of</strong> small samples and a small number <strong>of</strong> cases, it is apparent that the fill-in<br />
process described herein is generally valid and that table 2 can be used as a<br />
general guide in determining whether to continue short records or to start records<br />
at new locations where data are also needed. The advantage <strong>of</strong> the monthly fill-<br />
in model over a simple adjustment <strong>of</strong> mean flows is that realistic variations <strong>of</strong><br />
annual streamflow patterns for interrelated stations can be developed for use in<br />
simulation studies.<br />
U<strong>nl</strong>ess correlation coefficients between short-record and long-record values<br />
are well above 0.5, there appears to be very little gain in reliability through<br />
correlation. Where there is good correlation, the gain in reliability that can be<br />
expected through maintaining a short record for a longer period (such as continuing<br />
a 5-year record until it is 10 years long) is a function <strong>of</strong> the length <strong>of</strong> near-by iong-<br />
record stations.
169<br />
Where correlation coefficients are well above .95, short records need<br />
not be continued much beyond 5 years ,but the near-by long record should<br />
be continued as long as greater reliability is needed. Where Correlation<br />
coefficients are much below .8, short records should be continued. Between<br />
these limits, the relative value <strong>of</strong> continuing a short record or starting a new<br />
record depends on the unreliability <strong>of</strong> estimating flows at ungaged locations,<br />
which concerns an area <strong>of</strong> study beyond the scope <strong>of</strong> this paper.<br />
CONCLUSIONS<br />
The stochastic data fill-in model described can be used to estimate<br />
monthly values <strong>of</strong> missing hydrologic data at short-record locations where<br />
longer records exist in the region. The value <strong>of</strong> the fill-in procedure is a<br />
function <strong>of</strong> the correlation between the short-record and long-record data and<br />
the relative lengths <strong>of</strong> record, generally as expressed in equation 2. This<br />
relation, as illustrated in table 2, can be used to determine whether to continue<br />
short records or establish new stations. It appears from table 2 that short<br />
records need not be continued beyond 5 years (u<strong>nl</strong>ess hydrologic conditions<br />
change) where near-by records are continued that correlate at the .95 level<br />
or better. Where the correlation coefficient is below .8, records should generally<br />
be continued. Between these two values, a study <strong>of</strong> regional variations would<br />
be needed to determine the relative advantage <strong>of</strong> continuing existing stations or<br />
starting new ones.<br />
ACKNOWLEDGMENT<br />
The study upon which this paper is based was supported by the Texas<br />
<strong>Water</strong> Development Board. Computation assistance was furnished by R.V.<br />
Juyal and J.W. Barron. Opinions and conclusions expressed are those <strong>of</strong> the<br />
author.<br />
1.<br />
2.<br />
3.<br />
4.<br />
REFERENCES<br />
Beard, Leo R. (1965) Hydrologic Simulation Procedures in <strong>Water</strong> Yield<br />
Analysis, Sixth Congress, International Commission on Irrigation<br />
and Drainage, New Delhi, pp 22.103 - 22.116.<br />
Weiss, Arden O. and Beard, Leo R. (1971) A Multi-Basin Planning<br />
Strategy, <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Bulletin, Journal <strong>of</strong> the American <strong>Water</strong><br />
<strong>Resources</strong> Association V.7, No.4, pp. 750-764.<br />
Beard, Leo R. (1965) Use <strong>of</strong> Interrelated Records to Simulate<br />
Streamflow, Journal <strong>of</strong> the Hydraulics Division, American Society <strong>of</strong><br />
Civil Engineers, September 1965, pp. 13-22.<br />
Beard, Leo R., Fredrich, Augustine J. and Hawkins, Edward F. (1970)<br />
Estimating Monthly Streamflows <strong>with</strong>in a Region, National <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong><br />
Engineering Meeting, American Society <strong>of</strong> Civil Engineers, Preprint 1125.
ABSTRACT<br />
APPLICATION DU KRIGEAGE A L'OPTIMISATION<br />
D'UNE CAMPAGNE PLUVIOMETRIQUE EN ZONE ARIDE<br />
-<br />
J.P. DELHOMME, P. DELFXNER<br />
In arid areas, hydraulic planning must <strong>of</strong>ten be performed in a<br />
few years: install a rain gauge network, strengthen it if necessary and<br />
determine the major features <strong>of</strong> the basin, mai<strong>nl</strong>y the volume <strong>of</strong> precipi-<br />
tation and its geographic distribution. It seems impossible to utilize<br />
the usual elaborate statistical methods because they appeal to time COT<br />
rrelations which can hardly be inferred, Indeed, after an initial pro-<br />
gram <strong>of</strong> precipitation measurements for a basin, data for o<strong>nl</strong>y a sh-ort<br />
time interval are available, and regional climatological statiwn are<br />
commo<strong>nl</strong>y too far removed geograplìically to andd useful ingormqti'on. TO<br />
solve the interpolation problems , o<strong>nl</strong>y the spatial stxuctgre 08 preci-<br />
pitation on the basin itself can 6e considered. Kriging provides the<br />
best linear estimates based on the experimental data, and this under<br />
very few assumption. In particular, it avoids the traditional assump-<br />
tion <strong>of</strong> second order stationarity, used in optimal filtering for exam-<br />
ple, and which is not justified in many cases. Moreover, Kriging per-<br />
mits quantification <strong>of</strong> precision <strong>of</strong> estimation and provides a solution<br />
to the problem <strong>of</strong> optimal location <strong>of</strong> new points <strong>of</strong> measurement, accor<br />
ding to a criterion <strong>of</strong> maximum gain <strong>of</strong> information,<br />
RESUME<br />
Lors d'une étude d'aménagement hydraulique en zone aride, on ne<br />
dispose souvent que de quelques années pour implanter un réseau pluvio-<br />
métrique, le renforcer si besoin est, et cerner les caractéristiques ma<br />
jeures du bassin, principalement le volume d'eau tombé et sa réparti-<br />
tion. Les techniques statistiques élaborées traditionnellement semblent<br />
alors d'un emploi difficile car elles font intervenir des corrélations<br />
temporelles dont l'inférence statistique est quasiment imposible. En<br />
sffet, aprbs une première campagne de relevés pluviométriques sur le b a<br />
ssin, on n'y possède que de tr8s courtes séries chronologiques et les<br />
stations ciimatologiques régionales sont souvent trop élognées géogra-<br />
!hiquement pour apporter une information &ellement valable. Pour trai -<br />
ter les problèmes d'interpolation, on ne peut donc prendre en considéra<br />
tion que la structure spatiale de la pluviométrie. Le Krigeage permet<br />
ie trouver les meilleurs estimateurs linéaires construits sur les va-<br />
leurs expérimentales, et ce, sous des hvpoth8ses tres larges: en parti-<br />
)ulier, l'hypothèse classique de la stationnaritg du second ordre, di-<br />
fficilement admissible dans bien des cas, n'est pas nécessaire. Le Kri-<br />
Ceage permet en outre de quantifier la précision de notre estimation,<br />
?t appoiyte une sol-ution au problème de l'implantation optimale de nou-<br />
reaux points de mesure selon un critère de gain maximal d'information.
17 2<br />
Pour l'hydrogéologue, les précipitations sont non seulement<br />
descriptif du climat, mais aussi, et surtout, l'élément constitutif<br />
du débit des cours d'eau.<br />
A ces deux aspects fondamentaux correspondent deus types<br />
d'approche différents d'une épisode pluvieux. I1 s'agit d'une part<br />
d'estimer en tout point du bassin la hauteur de précipitation pour<br />
avoir une vue d'ensemble de la répartition spatiale de l'averse et<br />
pour en localiser les épicentres, d'autre part, d'intégrer cette<br />
hauteur de précipitation sur toute la surface afin d'evaluer la qua2<br />
tité d'eau tombée sur le bassin durant ce laps de temps.<br />
Dans les deux cas, on ne dispose au départ que des indications ponctuelles<br />
recueillies aux stations pluviométriques. Si 1 'on veut obtenir des évaluations<br />
correctes ã partir de ces données en nombre limité, on doit attacher une<br />
grande importance au choix d'une méthode d'estimation qui soit adaptée aux<br />
buts poursuivis et présente le maximum de fiabilité. Que signifierait une quantité<br />
d'eau calculée avec 100 .d'erreur? Comme dans tout calcul physique, une<br />
valeur numérique n'a de sens F qu'accompagnée d'un intervalle d'incertitude. Si<br />
la précision n'est pas satisfaisante, il conviendra ã 1 'avenir d'installer de<br />
nouveaux pluviomètres. Quelle serait alors leur implantation optiqale? Ces<br />
questions trouvent une réponse satisfaisante dans le cadre de la théorie du<br />
krigeage de G. MATHERON (i), (Z), (3).<br />
I1 n'est pas place ici pour un long exposé théorique que le lecteur<br />
pourra trouver dans les ouvrages de G. MATHERON cités en références.<br />
Aussi a-t-on préféré en montrer une application au cas concret d'une<br />
campagne pluviométrique en zone aride.<br />
PRESENTATION DU CADRE DE L'ETUDE<br />
Les données utilisées ont été empruntées ã une campagne de 1'ORSTOM<br />
dans la région Est du Tchad (4) en 1965-66. Durant la saison dds pluies a lieu<br />
la recharge de nappes souterraines de faible importance qui fournissent 1 'essentiel<br />
des ressources pendant la saison sèche.<br />
Afin d'accroître cette recharge, un projet de construction de barrages<br />
de suralimentation sur certains ouadis a été décidé, les études de reconnaissan-<br />
ce hydrologique devant s 'étendre sur deux années.<br />
On a retenu le cas du bassin de l'ouadi Kadjemeur d'une superficie de<br />
245 km2 et présentant de faibles dénivellées (inférieures ã 100 m.).<br />
Les conditions climatiques sur ce bassin versant sont assez difficiles<br />
?i estimer ã partir des stations climatologiques régionales (Fig.l), du fait de<br />
la rapidité des changements de régime climatique dans la région: en 400 km du<br />
Nord au Sud, on passe du régime sahélien sud d'Abeche au régime saharien de Fada<br />
Les périodes d'observation sont très inégales (Abeche: 31 ans, Guereda: 12 ans,<br />
Iriba: 8'ans, Biltine: 15 ans, Arada: 8 ans, Fada: 32 ans), et les corrélations<br />
d'une station à l'autre ne sont pas satisfaisantes.
173<br />
On ne peut donc prendre en compte que les données recueillies sur le<br />
bassin lui-même, où l'on dispose de 33 points de mesures: 3 pluviographes, 19<br />
pluviomètres association et 11 totalisateurs (Fig.2).<br />
LES BASES CONCEPTUELLES DU KRIGEAGE<br />
Le phénomène étudié est considéré comme une fonction Z associant une<br />
valeur numérique Z(x) à tout point x d'un certain domaine du plan ou de 1 'espace.<br />
On connaît les valeurs prises par Z aux points expérimentaux xl, x2, ...., x<br />
Selon les cas, on cherche ã estimer:<br />
N'<br />
i) la valeur ponctuelle Z(xo) au point xo<br />
2) la valeur moyenne sur un domaine S, soit i Is Z(x)dx<br />
3) la valeur moyenne pondérée de Z, soit:<br />
Z, = j' Z(x)p(x)dx avec p(x)dx = 1<br />
Pour cela, on se'-donne un estimateur Z" de la valeur exacte sous forme<br />
d'une combinaison linéaire des données disponibles:<br />
N<br />
z* =J xi Z(Xi)<br />
1 =1<br />
I1 y a de multiples facons de choisir les coefficients de pondération<br />
xi: tout le problème est de déterminer les meilleurs possibles.<br />
A cet effet, on peut se laisser guider par des considérations physiques.<br />
La qualité de l'estimation doit dépendre de deux facteurs: le nombre et la disposition<br />
spatiale des points de mesure d'une part, la continuité, la régularité<br />
du phénomène étudié, de l'autre.<br />
Pour le premier point, il est clair que l'estimation est d'autant meilleure<br />
qu'il y a plus de données expérimentales. Mais 1 'effectif du réseau de<br />
mesure n'est pas forcément déterminant. Interviennent également la disposition<br />
relative des points expérimentaux entre eux et leur localisation par rapport au<br />
domaine a estimer (point ou surface). Par exemple, pour estimer une quantité<br />
globale sur une région, il est en général préférable d'avoir moins de points mais<br />
disposés de façon uniforme que beaucoup de points agglutinés dans une seule zone.<br />
La conclusion est inverse si 1 'on désire une estimation locale au voisinage précisément<br />
de cette zone la mieux échantillonnée.<br />
Le second point est plus subtil et négligé dans la plupart des métho-<br />
des utilisées actuellement en hydrologie. Une fonction s'interpole d'autant<br />
mieux qu'elle est plus régulière. S'agissant par exemple d'estimer une valeur<br />
ponctuelle Z(xo), il n'y a aucune raison d'utiliser la même formule d'interpola-<br />
tion quand on travaille sur des pluies annuelles ou des pluies journalières.<br />
Dans un cas la valeur au point x diffère peu de celles des points voisins, dans<br />
1 'autre, le phénomène est plus ctaotique et les points lointains apportent une<br />
information non négligeable.
174<br />
Comment tenir compte de la régularité de la variable?<br />
Les méthodes fonctionnelles de 1 'analyse mathématique ordinaire ne sont<br />
guère utilisables pour les fonctions traduisant un phénomène naturel. Celles-ci<br />
ont un comportement spatial bien trop complexe, trop erratique pour se laisser<br />
décrire ii 1 'aide d'expressions analytiques classiques. Pour souligner cette particularité,<br />
G. MATHERON (1) propose de donner a de telles fonctions le nom de<br />
"vari ables régionalisées".<br />
Une façon commode ii la fois sur le plan conceptuel et pratique de traiter<br />
une variable régioiiziisée est de raisonner en termes probabilistes. On<br />
considère la variable régionalisée comme une "réalisation de fonction aléatoire",<br />
c'est ii dire comme le résultat d'un tirage au sort dans un ensemble de fonctions.<br />
Pour préciser cette idée, supposons qu'on range dans un même groupe un ensemble<br />
d'averses analogues, autrement dit, un ensemble de fonctions Zi(X) associant à<br />
chaque point x la hauteur de précipitation en ce point. La fonction aléatoire<br />
Z est telle que pour tout indice i et tout point x du domaine:<br />
z(x,i) = z.(x)<br />
1<br />
Au tirage au sort de l'indice i de l'averse correspond la fonction numérique or-<br />
dinaire Zi(X), c'est ii dire une réalisation de la fonction aléatoire Z. Ainsi<br />
sont fixées du même coup les valeurs prises par la fonction en tous les points<br />
de son domaine de définition, expérimentaux ou non.<br />
Dans le cadre de cette hypothèse, les notions statistiques telles que<br />
moyenne, vari ance , covari ance ou auto-corrél ati on prennent un sens précis.<br />
E le symbole "espérance mathématique", on a:<br />
Soit<br />
E CZ(x)l = m(x) moyenne<br />
E [Z(X)-m(x)]* = D2 [Z(X)]<br />
vari ance<br />
E [Z(x)-m(x)] [Z(y)-m(y)] = K(x,y) covariance<br />
K(X,Y)/=) .JK(y,y) = P(X,Y) auto-corrélation<br />
On voit que p(x,y) se déduit directement de K(x,y), la réciproque étant fausse.<br />
On utilisera donc plutôt K(x,y) qui contient plus d'information.<br />
Pour procéder valablement à 1 'inférence statistique de la moyenne et<br />
de la covariance aux différents points de l'espace, il faut disposer de chroni-<br />
ques suffisantes. Lorsque ce n'est pas le cas, come dans l'exemple de Kadjemeur,<br />
des hypothèses supplémentai res sont nécessaires. Les méthodes optimales du type<br />
de celle du filtrage de WIENER (5), introduite en météorologie par L.S. GANDIN<br />
(6) se placent dans 1 'hypothèse où la variable est "stationnaire d'ordre 2": la<br />
moyenne m(x) est constante et la covariance ne dépend pas séparément des points<br />
d'appui x et y, mais uniquement du vecteur x-y:<br />
E [~(x)] = m<br />
E [Z(x)-m] [Z(Y)-~] = K(x-Y)
175<br />
Ces hypothèses peuvent être trop restrictives. On sait par exemple que<br />
les précipitations sont plus abondantes en altitude qu'en plaine. Par conséquent,<br />
dans le cas général d'une région à relief varié, leur moyenne m(x) présente une<br />
"dérive" et ne peut être considérée comme constante. Par ailleurs, il apparaît<br />
que les calculs d'optimisation n'exigent pas que la variable elle-même, mais<br />
uniquement ses accroissements y possède une covari ance stationnai re.<br />
Ceci étant, les hypothèses du krigeage sont 1 es sui vantes :<br />
1) m(x) n'est pas forcément constante, mais est suffisamment régulière<br />
pour être représentée par une expression de la forme:<br />
k<br />
m(x) = 1 a, f'(x)<br />
1<br />
1 =o<br />
Les fonctions f fxì sont choisies à 1 'avance foolvnomes. fonctions<br />
trigonométriques; etc.. .) ; les al sont des cÒef~cienG inconnus<br />
Une telle formulation englobe le cas le plus simple où la moyenne<br />
est constante. La "dérive" m(x) se réduit alors à:<br />
O<br />
m(x) = ao f (x)= ao<br />
fo(x) étant la fonction identiquemint égale à 1.<br />
O<br />
On supposera toujours que f 1, car cela implique que l'erreur<br />
d'estimation Z-Z* est une combinaison linéaire d'accroissements<br />
de Z(x)<br />
2) Seconde hypothèse: 1 a variance des accroissements Z( x+h) -Z( x)<br />
ne dépend que du vecteur h. On pose:<br />
y(h) = i D2 [Z(x+h)-Z(x)]<br />
~ ( h ) est le vario ramme. Cette fonction du vecteur h renseigne<br />
sur 1 'isotropie +<br />
ou anisotropie de la variable régionalisée.<br />
A direction fixée, elle indique comment varie, en moyenne quadratique<br />
l'écart de valeurs prises en deux points x et x+h<br />
lorsque la distance h augmente. A une variable très régulière<br />
correspond un variogramme très continu, et inversement.<br />
Ces bases définies, il est possible de résoudre tour à tour les différents<br />
problèmes posés.<br />
KRIGEAGE DES ISOHYETES<br />
Soit Z(x) la hauteur de précipitation tombée sur un territoire pour une<br />
période déterminée. Afin d'estimer la valeur ponctuelle Z(x,) , on cherche parmi<br />
les estimateurs linéaires construits sur les données expérimentales z*=xhiZ(xi)<br />
celui qui minimise 1 'erreur quadratique moyenne E[Z*-Z(xo)]2. Or: 1<br />
2<br />
E [Zf-Z(x0)] = D2 [Z*-Z(x0)] + [E[Z'-Z(x0)]]'
176<br />
Le premier terme D2 [Zf-Z(xo)] est la variance de l'erreur.<br />
fonction du variogrannne:<br />
Elle s'explicite en<br />
D2 rhiZ(xi)-Z(x0)] = - 1 1 h-X.y(xi-x.) t 2 1 hiy(xi-xo)<br />
ij 1 J J<br />
i<br />
Le second terme [E[Z*-Z xQ)]I2 est le carré de l'erreur moyenne.<br />
moyenne représente un biais et il faut donc l'annuler.<br />
E [fc-z(x0)] = E<br />
D'après les hypothèses faites sur la dérive:<br />
d'où:<br />
Si l'on pose:<br />
m(xi) = 1 alf 1 (xi) et rn(xo) = 1 alf 1 (x,)<br />
1 1<br />
E [z*-z(xO)l = c al<br />
1<br />
'if 1 (xi) - f'(xO)]<br />
1 1<br />
1 hif (xi) = f (x,)<br />
1<br />
bc 1 = O, 1, ...., k<br />
Cette erreur<br />
him(xi) - m(xo<br />
l'erreur moyenne sera nulle quels que soient les coefficients a qu'il ne sera<br />
1<br />
pas nécessaire de connaître.<br />
Minimisant 1 'erreur quadratique moyenne sous ces k+l conditions, on<br />
obtient le système de krigeage où figurent ktl paramètres de Lagrange ul:<br />
(SI)<br />
1<br />
1 h.y(xi-x.) t 1 ulf (xi) = y(xi-xo)<br />
j J J 1<br />
1 hjf<br />
1<br />
(Xj) = f<br />
1<br />
(x )<br />
O<br />
j<br />
(i=l, ..., N)<br />
(l=O,l,. ..,k)<br />
Ce système est régulier, donc admet une solution unique, pourvu que<br />
les f (xi) soient linéairement indépendants sur 1 'ensemble des points expérimen-<br />
taux (cf.(l) ou (2)).<br />
A l'optimum, la variance d'estimation a pour expression:<br />
D2[Z*-Z(Xo)] = 1 Xjy(x.-x ) t 1 plf 1 (x,)<br />
j 1<br />
On remarque que cette variance ne dépend que du variogramme et des<br />
solutions hi et pl du système de krigeage, c'est à dire uniquement de la struc-<br />
ture du phénomène et de la disposition des points de mesure.
177<br />
L'exemple qui a été retenu est celui de 1 'averse du 6/8/66, la plus<br />
importante de l'année. I1 a été traité sur ordinateur à l'aide du programme<br />
BLUEPACK mis au point à Fontainebleau(79,Le bassin de 1 'ouadi Kadjemeur ne présentant<br />
pas un relief très marqué, la pluviométrie n'y possède pas de dérive systématique.<br />
On a donc pris pour seule fonction de base fo 5 1.<br />
Le variogramme est linéaire avec une discontinuité à 1 'origine.<br />
O pour h = o<br />
ríh) =<br />
en mm2. 20.4 t 11.23 h pour h # O en km<br />
I1 a été d'it plus haut que le variogramme est d'autant plus continu que<br />
la variable est plus régulière.<br />
La discontinuité à l'origine du y(h) traduit une irrégularité à petite<br />
échelle. Ce phénomène a été observé depuis longtemps par les hydrométéorologues<br />
qui 1 'expliquent par les perturbations locales, l'instabilité du mouvement de<br />
l'air au voisinage du sol et l'arrivée de la pluie sur le pluviomètre par rafales<br />
irrégulières. A la limite, si on connaissait parfaitement les hauteurs d'eau en<br />
tout point, il serait probablement impossible d'en tracer la carte, les fluctua-<br />
tions locales interdisant tout tracé continu.<br />
Prise entre la fidélité aux valeurs expérimentales et la nécessité de<br />
dégager des grands traits représentatifs du phénomène, la cartographie manuelle<br />
exige en permanence des choix plus ou moins arbitraires. Ainsi sur 1 'averse du<br />
6 Août (Fig.4), il n'a été tenu aucun compte de la hauteur 27.6 mm mesurée au<br />
pluviometre n"26, alors que les cotes extrêmales 55.5 et 54.5 mm ont été scrupu-<br />
leusement respectées.<br />
Le krigeage, pour sa part, accorde aux valeurs expérimentales une importance<br />
directement 1 iée au degré de structuration du phénomène.<br />
La carte de la Fig.3 a été obtenue après estimation par krigeage aux<br />
noeuds d'une grille régulière.Le pluviomètre n"29 (OU la hauteur mesurée est de<br />
55.5 mm) n'a ainsi contribué que pour environ 63% dans 1 'estimation du point de<br />
grille le plus proche. L'influence, non négligeable, des autres stations a ramené<br />
ce point de grille à une valeur de 48.7 mm.<br />
A cette estimation est attaché un écart-type de l'ordre de 6.25 mm, ce<br />
qui rend cette valeur parfaitement compatible avec la valeur expérimentale voisine.<br />
Sur 1 'ensemble du bassin, les écarts-types d'estimation sont compris entre 5.5<br />
et 14 mn, la zone la plus mal connue étant bien entendu la partie Sud-Est.<br />
ESTIMATION DE LA LAME D'EAU MOYENNE SUR UN BASSIN<br />
A l'heure actuelle, trois méthodes sont utilisées: le planimétrage<br />
des cartes tracées manuellement, la moyenne arithmétique simple, la méthode des<br />
polygones de THIESSEN.
178<br />
La précision de la première méthode est directement liée à la qualité du<br />
tracé de la carte. Mais elle dépend aussi du soin de l'opérateur: de l'attention<br />
qu'il a portée au comptage des carreaux du papier mi1limétré.o~ à éviter les a-<br />
coups dans le maniement du planimètre.<br />
La moyenne arithmétique est le procédé de calcul le plus simple, pour ne<br />
pas dire le plus simpliste. Soit Q la quantité totale d'eau qui s'est abattue<br />
sur le bassin be surface S. Si Z(x) est la hauteur d'eau au point x, la hauteur<br />
d'eau moyenne Z a pour expression:<br />
7 = Q/S soit 2 = i Is Z(x)dx<br />
Faire une moyenne arithmétique simple sur les Z(x):<br />
c'est perdre de vue que seules les-quantités d'eau sont additives, et non les<br />
hauteurs. Pour qu'une telle moyenne ait un sens, il faudrait que tous les pluvio-<br />
mètres soient équivalents, qu'ils représentent en quelque sorte chacun l/Nième du<br />
bassin ,<br />
Les polygones de THIESSEN (8) procèdent d'une analyse physique plus<br />
sérieuse. Ils reposent sur 1 'hypothèse qu'une station est représentative de 1 'ensemble<br />
des points du bassin pour lesquels elle est la station la plus proche -<br />
voir Fig.2. L'idée de base est en fait plus générale et ne repose pas réellement<br />
sur la forme géométrique des polygones. Soit en effet une partition quelconque<br />
du bassin en "zones d'influence'' de surface Si:<br />
s = s, + s, i- .... t SN<br />
Dire que la valeur expérimentale Z(xi) est représentative de la zone Si, c'est<br />
poser:<br />
L'estimation de la quantité d<br />
Q' =<br />
et la lame d'eau moyenne a pour valeur:<br />
eau totale est alors:<br />
Sur le plan formel, 1 'estimateur 2* n'est autre qu'une moyenne pondérée des Z(xi).<br />
Ce qui importe en vérité, ce sont les poids Si/S et non la géométrie des zones<br />
d ' i n f 1 uence .<br />
On est ainsi tout naturellement amené à rechercher les poids Xi qui<br />
opti mi sent 1 'es ti mateur :<br />
t*= 1 Xi Z(Xi)<br />
1
179<br />
En procédant de façon analogue au cas du krigeage ponctuel, on montre que les hi<br />
sont solutions du système:<br />
Comme on choisit toujours pour fo(x) la fonctior constante identiquement<br />
égale 5 1, la première des conditions sur les fonctions f (pour 1=0) s'écrit<br />
si mpl emen t :<br />
I:xj=l<br />
j<br />
La variance d'estimation a pour expression, 5 1 'optimum:<br />
De même que pour le krigeage ponctuel, cette variance ne dépend que de<br />
la structure de la variable et de la configuration des points expérimentaux. Par<br />
conséquent, si le variogramme est connu, on peut calculer la variance d'estimation<br />
sans avoir besoin de la valeur des hauteurs d'eau. C'est cette propriété remarquable<br />
qu'on utilisera pour localiser un nouveau point de mesure par la "méthode<br />
du point fictif".<br />
Sur l'ouadi Kadjemeur, les calculs ont été effectués pour les 13 épisodes<br />
pluvieux de 1966. Vu le faible nombre de points de mesure, il était difficile<br />
de procéder 5 1 'inférence statistique du variogramme averse par averse, d'autant<br />
plus que parfois certaines données étaient manquantes. Prendre brutalement<br />
le variogramme moyen sur l'ensemble des averses eut été faire violence à la nature<br />
car ces averses diffèrent par leur intensité et leur dispersion. Une hypothèse<br />
plus raisonnable a été d'admettre que les variogrammes des épisodes pluvieux<br />
sont proportionnels:<br />
Yk(h) = Wk<br />
oùyk(h) est le variogramme de la kième averse, y(h) le variogramme moyen et Wk<br />
le coefficient de proportionnalité. Cette relation équivaut 5 admettre qu'il y<br />
a conservation des corrélations spatiales sur le bassin. En notant s la variance<br />
expérimentale des hauteurs d'eau de la kiëme averse et 3 la moyenne !es sz, il<br />
en résulte que:<br />
Ok = s;/s;T<br />
-<br />
,
TABLEAU I<br />
xi (en a)<br />
Thiessen (9)<br />
averse<br />
1<br />
2<br />
3<br />
4<br />
5<br />
6<br />
7<br />
8<br />
9<br />
10<br />
11<br />
12<br />
13<br />
effectif<br />
21<br />
28<br />
33<br />
33<br />
33<br />
33<br />
33<br />
33<br />
33<br />
33<br />
33<br />
31<br />
17<br />
moyenne<br />
mm<br />
13.81<br />
34.69<br />
5.34<br />
38.25<br />
1.06<br />
2.33<br />
21.81<br />
4.47<br />
32.29<br />
O .58<br />
O .40<br />
22.35<br />
6.35<br />
1.0 1.0 0.Y 1.2 1.1 1.b 1.1 5.3 3.3 5.U U.6<br />
1.1 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.5 8.3 3.4 3.8 2.1 1.1<br />
mm2<br />
19.58<br />
64.20<br />
31.90<br />
73.39<br />
1.31<br />
10.96<br />
225.61<br />
82.86<br />
152.21<br />
1.08<br />
1.13<br />
46.46<br />
45.75<br />
o .34<br />
1.10<br />
0.55<br />
1.26<br />
o .o2<br />
0.19<br />
3.88<br />
1.42<br />
2.62<br />
o .o2<br />
o .o2<br />
O .80<br />
O .79
181<br />
On constate une similitude assez nette qui justifierait a posteriori<br />
l'intuition de THIESSEN.<br />
De façon à permettre une comparaison plus complète des différentes méthodes<br />
évoquées, on a porté sur un même graphique (Fig.6) les évaluations des lames<br />
d'eau pour les 13 averses, par moyenne arithmétique, par planimétrage, par<br />
THIESSEN et par krigeage. De part et d'autre de la bissectrice des axes,sur<br />
laquelle figure la valeur krigée, on a indiqué la fourchette à 2 écarts-types.<br />
I1 ressort que trois méthodes donnent des résultats à peu pres équivalents.<br />
Seule la moyenne arithmétique se singularise, en particulier sur les<br />
averses du 9 Août, du 13 au 14 Septembre, du 11 Août et du 23 Juillet, où les<br />
valeurs estimées se situent en dehors de la fourchette pourtant très large de 4<br />
écarts-types. Avec la moyenne arithmétique, tous les pluviomètres ont même importance;<br />
le réseau étant plus fourni à l'Ouest, il y a systématiquement sousestimation<br />
ou sur-estimation de la lame d'eau selon que 1 'épicentre des averses<br />
se situe à l'Est ou à 1 'Ouest.<br />
Que retenir de ces comparaisons?<br />
Une fois écartée la moyenne arithmétique, il semblerait,du moins sur<br />
l'exemple traité, que l'avantage du krigeage ne soit pas très net. Pourtant,<br />
c'est la seule méthode autour de laquelle a pu s'articuler la comparaison, grâce<br />
au calcul d'erreur. En outre, les auteurs ont pu remarquer que la méthode de<br />
THIESSEN, et dans une moindre mesure le planimétrage, s'avèrent en pratique longs<br />
et fastidieux. Le krigeage quant à lui ne nécessite que l'investissement d'un<br />
programme.<br />
OPTIMISATION DU RENFORCEMENT D'UN RESEAU PLUVIOMETRIQUE<br />
Remarquons tout de suite que cette question n'a de sens que si le but<br />
poursui vi a été cl ai rement défi ni .<br />
Dans le cas d'une reconnaissance en vue d'un aménagement hydraulique,<br />
1 'hydrologue a pour objectif l'étude de la relation pluie-débit: il s'intéresse<br />
donc en premier lieu à la quantité d'eau tombée journellement sur le bassin.<br />
La variance d'estimation par krigeage a permis de donner la fourchette d'incertitude<br />
avec laquelle cette quantité peut être calculée. Elle fournit donc tout<br />
naturellement 1 'indicateur de précision nécessaire pour:<br />
1) décider de 1 'opportunité de renforcer le réseau,<br />
2) déterminer 1 'emplacement optimal d'un éventuel pluviomètre<br />
suppl émentai re.<br />
Pour ce faire, on utilisera la méthode du point fictif. A la question<br />
"comment implanter au mieux un nouveau point de mesure" peuvent être attachées<br />
certaines contraintes. Si ce choix ne se pose que parmi un certain nombre de<br />
points présélectionnés selon un autre critère (accès facile, relevé aisé,. . .),<br />
on implantera fictivement un pluviomètre en chacun d'eux et on déterminera le<br />
gain dn précision correspondant.
182<br />
On procedera de même le long d'un cheminement si 1 'on a décidé a priori de .retenir<br />
une ligne caractéristique du terrain (piste d'accès, accident de terrain,. ..).<br />
Quand au contraire, 1 'on ne possêde aucun a priori , on tracera, toujours<br />
de la même manière, une carte d'isogain en précision sur l'estimation de<br />
la lame d'eau. C'est la solution qui a été adoptée pour l'étude du cas de<br />
1 'ouadi Kadjemeur.<br />
LOCALISATION OPTIMALE D'UN PLUVIOMETRE SUPPLEMENTAIRE<br />
Soit U; la variance d'estimation ã partir des 33 pluviomètres existants,<br />
de la hauteur d'eau tombée en moyenne sur le bassin pendant une averse.<br />
Si on implante fictivement un nouveau pluviomètre en un point M, cette<br />
variance d'estimation prend une nouvelle valeur U ~M) < U:. Le gain en précision<br />
peut être défini comme:<br />
G(M) =<br />
uO<br />
Si 1 'on ne tenait aucun compte de 1 'existence de corrélations spatiales, on donnerait<br />
comme gain correspondant à un 34e point de mesure: 1/34 -3%. Quant à la<br />
localisation, elle serait indifférente à 1 'intérieur du bassin.<br />
Considérant un domaines, le krigeage permet de déterminer le point M<br />
où ce gain est maximal.<br />
Pour Kadjemeur, le domaine retenu a été choisi de sorte qu'il englobe<br />
le bassin et ses abords immédiats. Le lecteur est invité à se reporter à la<br />
Fig.7 pour voir où il aurait lui-même implanté une nouvelle mesure.<br />
I1 suffit de comparer les Fig.7 et 8 pour constater que sur de nombreux<br />
points, "1 'intuition" était insuffisante pour appréhender le problême d'une mani-<br />
ère globale.<br />
Le gain maximum est de 13% au 'lieu des 3% donnés par une analyse sommaire.<br />
L'optimum absolu est situé en bordure du bassin, alors qu'au centre, une<br />
grande zone est dépourvue de point de mesure.<br />
Pourtant si l'on revient aux coefficients du krigeage ou ã ceux de<br />
THIESSEN, force est de constater que ces résultats vont dans le sens d'un<br />
"soulagement" des pluviomêtres de poids les plus élevés: on tend vers une égalisation<br />
de la contribution des différentes stations, ce qui satisfait le sens<br />
physique de 1 'hydrologue.<br />
Enfin, l'examen de la carte isogain (Fig.8) sur l'ensemble du domaine<br />
est três instructif par lui-même. I1 apparaît qu'il vaut mieux implanter judicieusement<br />
un pluviomètre à l'extérieur du bassin plutôt que d'une manière<br />
redondante ã 1 'intérieur.
CONCLUSION<br />
183<br />
Dans une zone aride mal reconnue, 1 ' hydrométéorol ogue ne di spose pas<br />
de longues chroniques aux stations régionales; il se voit contraint de n'utiliser<br />
que les données qu'il a pu recueillir pendant une ou deux campagnes<br />
annuelles, pour calculer les lames d'eau sur son bassin versant.<br />
Formalisant et généralisant la méthode des coefficients de THIESSEN, le<br />
krigeage a permis, en fonction d'un objectif précis - estimation locale ou glo-<br />
bale - de trouver les poids optimaux ii affecter aux différents pluviomètres.<br />
Un intervalle de confiance a été associé à chaque estimation.<br />
Aussi le krigeage a-t-il permis de poser en termes de gain de précision<br />
le problème du renforcement d'un réseau: il donne objectivement le meilleur<br />
endroit pour implanter un pluviomètre supplémentaire et la nouvelle précision avec<br />
laquelle pourra être estimée la grandeur étudiée.<br />
La méthode présentée est d'un emploi très souple: le coût d'implantation<br />
peut varier selon 1 'emplacement, le bassin peut également être découpé en<br />
sous-bassins d'importance différente pour 1 'écoulement.
184<br />
BIBLIOGRAPHIE<br />
Matheron, G. (1965). Les variables régionalisées et leur estimation,<br />
Paris, Masson et Cie<br />
Matheron, G. (1969). Le krigeage universel, Fontainebleau, Cahiers du<br />
Centre de Morphologie Mathématique , Fasc .1<br />
Matheron, G. (1970). La théorie des variables régionalisées et ses applications,<br />
Fontainebleau, Cahiers du Centre de Morphologie Mathématique,<br />
Fasc .5<br />
Roche, M.A. (1968). Ecoulement de surface, alimentation de nappe et<br />
transport sol ide des ouadis Fera, Kadjemeur et S<strong>of</strong>oya, Fort-Lamy, ORSTOM<br />
Wiener, N. (1966). Extrapolation, interpolation and smoothing <strong>of</strong> stationnary<br />
time series, Cambridge, Mass., M.I.T. Press<br />
Gandin, L.S. (1963). Objective analysis <strong>of</strong> meteorological fields, Leningra<br />
Israël program for scientific translation<br />
Delfiner, P., Delhomme, J.P. (1973). Présentation du programme BLUEPACK,<br />
Fontainebleau, Ecole des Mines de Paris, note interne<br />
Thiessen, A.H. (1911). Precipitation averages for large areas, Monthly<br />
Weather Rev. , vol. 39, n07, p. 1082<br />
Del finer, P. (1968). Cartographie et morphologie des précipitations<br />
considérées comme variables régionalisées , Université de Grenoble<br />
(10) Delhomme, J.P. (1970). Présentation d'une méthode objective d'interpolatio<br />
pour la construction de cartes isopiézométriques , Douai , Communication au<br />
Groupe d'Etude de Bassins Versants Souterrains<br />
(11) Delhomme, J .P. (1971). Traitement géostatistique des données piézométrique<br />
le krigeage en hydrogéologie, Fontainebleau, Recyclage en hydrogéologie<br />
mathématique<br />
(12) Delfiner, P. (1973). Analyse du géopotentiel et du vent géostrophique par<br />
krigeage universel, Paris, Note EERM - Météorologie Nationale
Fig.1 - Situation du B.V de l'ouadi Kadjemeur<br />
185
186<br />
Fig.3- Carte obtenue par krigeage
2<br />
mm<br />
4<br />
100<br />
o 1 5 10<br />
c<br />
km<br />
Fig.5 -Variogramme moyen bp~vt~da~n&
188<br />
I<br />
Fig.6- Comparai.mi dei différ-iites méthodes d'estirnaticin globale
189
P<br />
..
IMPROVEMENT OF RUNOFF RECORDS IN SMALLER WATERSHEDS BASED ON<br />
ABSTRACT<br />
PERMEABILITY OF THE GEOLOGICAL SUBSURFACE<br />
Dr. George J. Halasi-Kun<br />
Chairman, Columbia University Seminars<br />
on Pollution and <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong>, New York, USA<br />
In smaller watersheds <strong>with</strong> an area less than 250 km2, the recorded<br />
hydrologic data are scarce or non-existent because, Correlating<br />
the extreme run<strong>of</strong>f data <strong>with</strong> the characteristic permeability <strong>of</strong><br />
the different geological formations can not o<strong>nl</strong>y improve the va-<br />
rious methods for simulation or interpretation <strong>of</strong> hydrologic in-<br />
formation from other areas but also provides additional improve-<br />
ment in hydrological data gathering. An accoynt is given about<br />
tentative average values in millidarcys for permeability <strong>of</strong> diffe-<br />
rent geological formations based on selected bibliography and<br />
previous experience. Further correlation <strong>of</strong> peak run<strong>of</strong>fs in Central<br />
Europe and in the Northeastern coastal area <strong>of</strong> the United States<br />
<strong>with</strong> their specific geological subsurface is discussed.<br />
Finally, it is pointed out that the geological subsurface as a<br />
characteristic <strong>of</strong> the peak run<strong>of</strong>f does not apply at ail for water-<br />
sheds <strong>with</strong> an area over 300 km2. Similar but less clearly defined<br />
correlation can be found between the lowest run<strong>of</strong>f and the storage<br />
capacity <strong>of</strong> the geological formations.<br />
RESUME<br />
Dans les petits bassins, de surface infgrieure à 250 km2, les<br />
données hydrologiques enregistrdes sont rares ou <strong>nl</strong>existent %as.<br />
L'étude des corrélations entre les mesures d'écoulement extremes<br />
et la perméabilité caractéristique des différentes formations géo-<br />
logiques peut améliorer les diverses méthodes de simulation ou<br />
d'interprétation des reqseignements hydrologiques provenant<br />
d'autres régions, ainsi que le rassemblement des donnees h.flrologi-<br />
ques. On a essayé de donner des valeurs moyennes de perméabilité,<br />
en l'millidarcyt', pour différentes formations géologiques en se<br />
basant sur une bibliographie sélectionnée et sur l'expérience anté-<br />
rieure. D'autres corr&latio?s, entre les écoulements de pointe en<br />
Europe Centrale et sur la Cote Nord-Est des Etats-Unis, et leurs<br />
sous-sols géologiques, sont aussi discutée:. Enfin on montre que,<br />
pour des bassins d'une surface supérieure a 300 km', la structure<br />
géologique souterraine ne constitue pas du tout une caractgristique<br />
des écoulements de pointe. Des corrélations analogues, mais moi'ns<br />
clairement définies, peuvent se rencontrer entre les écoulements<br />
minimaux et la capacitd de stockage des formati'ons g@ologiques,
192<br />
(1) INTRODUCTION<br />
fi<br />
In smaller watersheds <strong>with</strong> an area less than 250 lan", the recorded<br />
hydrologic data is scarce. Generally, no data for longer<br />
period is at hand, when the area is planned for development. In<br />
accordance <strong>with</strong> various studies conducted in moderate climatic<br />
conditions in Central lcurope and in the Northeastern United States<br />
<strong>of</strong> !\merica, it seems that the peak run<strong>of</strong>f values <strong>of</strong> these drainage<br />
basins are highly dependent on the geologic subsurface where the<br />
permeability <strong>of</strong> the rock formations providesthe ground water storage,<br />
or their impervious surface preconditions the extent <strong>of</strong> the<br />
lake and swamp areas <strong>of</strong> the region cl]. Both these characteristicr<br />
directly influence the drainage density in the areas <strong>with</strong> different<br />
permeability faotor <strong>of</strong> the geological formations [2], as can<br />
be demonstrated, for instance, by the hydrographioal map <strong>of</strong> Southweet<br />
Germany from the Upper-Danube region [Figure 1).<br />
Another claeeio example can be the river training and flood<br />
control program <strong>of</strong> 1840-1950 in the Carpathian Basin in Central<br />
Europe where -- even in a large watershed like the Danube at<br />
Orshova, Romania (576,240 km- area <strong>of</strong> drainage basin <strong>with</strong> a yearly<br />
average rainfall <strong>of</strong> 900 mm) -- the diminishing <strong>of</strong> lake and swamp<br />
area by extensive drainage and flood control, the maximuin annual<br />
flood increased by 15~6 in the observed 110 year period (Figure 2)<br />
while the lake and swamp area decreased from llo7 to 3% <strong>of</strong> the<br />
watershed. In the Carpathian Basin (318,030 1ans <strong>of</strong> the Danube<br />
drainage basin related to the observation station Orshova, Romania)<br />
39,000 km2 agricultural land was reclaimed in the flood and<br />
marshland region. (Figure 3 shows the reclaimed area for the 110<br />
year period including the two lakes <strong>of</strong> that basin.)<br />
A similar effect on peak run<strong>of</strong>f was observed in the State <strong>of</strong><br />
New Jersey, U.S.A. in a territory <strong>of</strong> 20,295 h2, This obse ation<br />
is bas d on 67 gaging stations for watershed <strong>of</strong> from 25.6 2 to<br />
512 Inn 8 <strong>with</strong> an average yearly rainfall 1125 mm (Figure 4: Adjustment<br />
factor for effect <strong>of</strong> lakes and swamps on peak run<strong>of</strong>f in New<br />
Jersey 1897-1972 compared <strong>with</strong> data developed from the Danubian<br />
basin at gaging station Orshova, Romania 1840-1950).<br />
(2) hhXDdtma SURFACE FLOW<br />
Researohes conducted in the pa t decades concerned maximum<br />
flow in watersheds <strong>with</strong> area 250 km' or less, where the geological<br />
conditions, topographic characteristics and rock formations permit<br />
an evaluation <strong>of</strong> peak rates <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f from smaller watersheds.<br />
Such research revealed a Olear influence <strong>of</strong> these factors on the<br />
peak run<strong>of</strong>f. In accordance <strong>with</strong> the findings abroad (in Central<br />
Europe in an area <strong>of</strong> 49,008 h a) 13) and in the Northeastern Uni-
193<br />
ted States (in an area <strong>of</strong> 20,295 km2) [23 the correlation <strong>of</strong> the<br />
100 year peak flow <strong>with</strong> the geologic subsurface, the topographic<br />
conditions (slopes) and the size <strong>of</strong> the watershed can be put in<br />
the following equation:<br />
Q = C.A-e, where<br />
Q = 100 year peak run<strong>of</strong>f value in m3fsec.km2<br />
A = area <strong>of</strong> watershed in km2<br />
C = coefficient depending on the geological subsurface <strong>with</strong> value:<br />
In Central Europe [3] for 100-125 mm/day point rainfall<br />
intensity and 15 km by 50 km recorded storm patternfrom<br />
1 to 10.2 (Figure 51<br />
In Northeastern United States <strong>of</strong> Amerlca [I] for 2OQ-250<br />
mm/day point rainfall intensity and 30 km by I05 km<br />
recorded storm pattern -<br />
from 7.3 to 147 (Table 1)<br />
e = exponent <strong>of</strong> the watershed area depending on the topographic<br />
character <strong>of</strong> the watershed (0.35 -plains; 0.37- slightly<br />
hilly plains; 0.44-0.46 -steeper hills and moderate mountains;<br />
0.50 - Alpine type mountains).<br />
Analyzing the figures <strong>of</strong> the geological run<strong>of</strong>f coefficient,,<br />
the result seems to be identical in both areas studied, if we<br />
assume that the point rainfall intensity and the size <strong>of</strong> recorded<br />
storm pattern have a direct influence on the peak run<strong>of</strong>f (Figure<br />
5). Furthermore the vegetative cover showed a 2 5% effect on the<br />
peak flood. Similar influence was observed concerning the form <strong>of</strong><br />
watershed Ct5% for fan-shaped and -30% elongated form <strong>of</strong> drainage<br />
basin). Urbanization alters the geological character <strong>of</strong> the surface<br />
and has a direct relation in increasing the surface peak flows<br />
41 *<br />
(3 1<br />
GROUND WATER STORAGE CAPACITY<br />
It is obvious that the rate <strong>of</strong> surface run<strong>of</strong>f must be related<br />
in an inverse way to the permeability <strong>of</strong> the geological subsurface<br />
<strong>of</strong> the watershed; and the quality and quantity <strong>of</strong> ground water<br />
storage is directly dependent on these condltlons. Based on over<br />
70,ûOû well-record files <strong>of</strong> domestic and industrial wells through-<br />
out the State <strong>of</strong> New Jersey, U.S.A.<br />
(area 20,295 km22 for the<br />
period 1947-1972, the ground water availability in rock formations<br />
from Precambrian thorough Triassic in age and from unconsolidated<br />
sediments from the Cretaceous to the present, can be estimated.<br />
Comparison <strong>of</strong> large statlstical samples <strong>of</strong> well-records i’n the<br />
rock formations to a depth <strong>of</strong> as much as 550 m has provided a means<br />
<strong>of</strong> estimating the ground water potential <strong>of</strong> areas underlain by
194<br />
specific rock types [5, 6, 7, 81. Several <strong>of</strong> these estimates <strong>of</strong><br />
ground water availability have been tested against the experience<br />
in areas <strong>of</strong> suburban development during times <strong>of</strong> drought 1961-1966.<br />
There us sufficient consistency in the results to indicate that<br />
underlying rock and sediment types may be determined from well<br />
data where they are otherwise concealed by soil and overburden.<br />
The gathered statistical data on ground water availability<br />
in New Jersey is based al60 on pumping tests and records <strong>of</strong> the<br />
wells, and their figures can be accepted on the assumption <strong>of</strong> an<br />
average yearly rainfall 1125 mm -- which can drop for two consecu-<br />
tive years <strong>of</strong>' drought to 850 mm. Ground water is available in the<br />
northern half (rock country1 <strong>of</strong> the area studied o<strong>nl</strong>y to a depth<br />
<strong>of</strong> 180 m below the surface. Boring tests proved that below that<br />
level, there is a very marked decrease in fractures and fissures<br />
from which water can be obtained. There is also evidence, <strong>of</strong><br />
course, that certain fracture zones may give abundant water at<br />
great depth, but these fractures are those such as the Triassic<br />
border fault or others that have been weil known. In the coastal<br />
half (coastal plains) <strong>of</strong> this examined region the limit, in<br />
accordance <strong>with</strong> the aquifer layers, is from 200 to 1000 m (from<br />
West to East) below the sealevel 8 .<br />
Evapotranspiration and interception average 450-560 mm yearly,<br />
and the yearly average run<strong>of</strong>f is up to 550 mm from the annual<br />
precipitation. The ground water availability indicator has a value<br />
from O to 450 mrn yearly, depending on the permeability and storage<br />
capacity <strong>of</strong> the geological formations 191.<br />
Despite the fact that the estimate <strong>of</strong> the regional availabi-<br />
lity is complicated by factors such as recharge or transmissability<br />
frow adjacent areas, there is clear evidence <strong>of</strong> correlation <strong>of</strong><br />
permeability <strong>of</strong> geological formations <strong>with</strong> surface peak run<strong>of</strong>f and<br />
ground water availability. The comparison can be based o<strong>nl</strong>y on<br />
average values <strong>of</strong> permeability because they are measured under<br />
difficult conditions and in various geological formations which<br />
are similar to those formations used in establishing run<strong>of</strong>f for-<br />
mula coefficients and ground water availability indicators (Ta-<br />
ble 21. ït must be pointed out that the various formations are<br />
also, in general, already mixed or interwoven even in smaller<br />
drainage areas. The uneven surface weathering, artificial imper-<br />
vious surface due to urbanization, the disintegrated underlying<br />
rock formations at various depths and possible faults add to the<br />
difficulty <strong>of</strong> establishing a practical average value <strong>of</strong> permeabi-<br />
lity, ground water availability or surface run<strong>of</strong>f even for a<br />
small waters he d.
195<br />
The various studies showed that the geological subsurface has<br />
an effect o<strong>nl</strong>y on smaller watersheds <strong>with</strong> an area <strong>of</strong> 250 km2 or<br />
less. The "geologic" character starts to "fade away" when the<br />
size <strong>of</strong> the watershed is larger than 235 km2; and for a watershed<br />
<strong>of</strong> over 340 km2 the use <strong>of</strong> formulas based on geologic conditions<br />
is not recommended because other factors affect the flood flow,<br />
and the influence <strong>of</strong> geological factors is negligible. Even more<br />
confined in area is the ground water availability estimate where<br />
the practical upper limit may be less than 200 km2, depending on<br />
the surface conditions and on the complexity <strong>of</strong> the subsurface<br />
rock formations.<br />
(4) LOWEST SURFACE FLOW<br />
The lowest flow in smaller watersheds -- whose importance is<br />
to find out the pollution effect <strong>of</strong> various polluting sources<br />
depends , similarly, on the permeability <strong>of</strong> the geological subsur-<br />
face, the length <strong>of</strong> drought, the frequency and'the amount <strong>of</strong> rain,<br />
the storage capacity <strong>of</strong> the aquifer layers, the evapotranspiration,<br />
the temperature <strong>of</strong> the atmosphere and <strong>of</strong> the soil, the retardation,<br />
effect <strong>of</strong> forests and <strong>of</strong> lakes and the elevation <strong>of</strong> the watershed<br />
not to mention transfer <strong>of</strong> available water from one watershed to<br />
the other. From these few factors is also evident that reliable<br />
data about lowest flow are even more scarce for smaller watersheds<br />
than the peak flow. In general, the surface watey records contain<br />
prery li'mited amount <strong>of</strong> data pertaining to lowest flows.<br />
Despite these circumstances, there is sufficient evidence to<br />
develop also a formula for lowest run<strong>of</strong>f based on records from<br />
both areas collected especially from the drought periods 1921 and<br />
2947 in Czechoslovakia [IO, 11, 12) and 1961-1966 in New Jersey<br />
15. 6, 7, 81 as it follows:<br />
Q z CSA-~, where<br />
Q lowest run<strong>of</strong>f (50 years?) value in l/sec.km2<br />
A = area <strong>of</strong> watershed in km2<br />
C coefficient depending on the geological subsurface (Table 31<br />
In Central Europe from O to 5.58<br />
In New Jersey, U.S.A. from O to 5.75<br />
e 0,065; the exponent indicates an almost even distribution <strong>of</strong><br />
the lowest run<strong>of</strong>f regardless <strong>of</strong> the size <strong>of</strong> watershed and the<br />
available data and values were not sufficient evidence to<br />
evaluate the influence <strong>of</strong> slopes and topographic configuration<br />
<strong>of</strong> the drainage basins in further details.
196<br />
In Both examined areas in the plain region, where the aquifer<br />
sediments prevail and reach considerable depth as far as 1000 m<br />
below sealevel, the run<strong>of</strong>f coefficients decrease in value because<br />
the surface run<strong>of</strong>f is absorBed by these highly permeable layers.<br />
As a contrast to this phenomena in ayeas such as these along the<br />
Atlantic Coast in New Jersey or the valley <strong>of</strong> the Danube and the<br />
Tisza in Southern Czechoslavakia, the ground water collected, even<br />
from distant area, "spills over" fpon its subsurface storage and<br />
keeps the surface run<strong>of</strong>f values up to 10.4 lfsec,km2 in periods <strong>of</strong><br />
drought. This outcropping <strong>of</strong> the gpound water can be observed also<br />
in the surface streams <strong>of</strong> the "Fine Barrens" area <strong>of</strong> Southern New<br />
Jersey. Unfortunately, the data concerning low run<strong>of</strong>f is far less<br />
available than that for, peak run<strong>of</strong>f or well-records, This makes<br />
further evaluation dad calculation extremely difficult, Therefore,<br />
this method <strong>of</strong> lowest run<strong>of</strong>f computation may be considered o<strong>nl</strong>y as<br />
an estimate for planning and developing purposes.
197<br />
Brm I OGRAP IIY<br />
1. T-Ialasi-Kun, G.J. (1972). “Data Collecting on <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong><br />
and Computations <strong>of</strong> MaximUm Flood for Smaller <strong>Water</strong>sheds, If<br />
Simposio Internacional Yobre la Planifioacion de Recursos<br />
Ridraulicos - Ponenoias, Volume I, Mexico.<br />
2. rrerak, ñ!. , Stringfield, V.T. (1972). Karst, Amterdam-London-<br />
New York, Elsevier.<br />
3. Halasi-Kun, G.J. (1968). Die Ermittlu g von Hbchstabflüssen<br />
für Einzugsgebiete kleiner ala 300 b3 im Bereich der Slowakei,<br />
Braunsohweig, Leichtweiss-Inst itut.<br />
4. nalasi-Kun, G.J. (1969). ”Correlation Between Precipitation,<br />
Flood and Windbreak Phenomena o9 the Mountains, 1’ Proceedings<br />
<strong>of</strong> University Seminar on Pollution and <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong>, Vol. I,<br />
~ e w York - Trenton, Columbia University - State <strong>of</strong> New Jersey,<br />
5. Miller, J. (1973). Geology and Ground Viater <strong>Resources</strong> <strong>of</strong> Sussex<br />
County ... , Geol. Bulletin No. 73, Trenton, State <strong>of</strong> New Jersey.<br />
6. Widmer, K. (1905). Geology <strong>of</strong> the Ground <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> <strong>of</strong><br />
Mercer County, Geoï. Report No. 7, Trenton, New Jersey ~eol.<br />
Surve y.<br />
7. Rhodehamel, E.C. (1970). A Hydrologic Analysis <strong>of</strong> the New Jersey<br />
Pine Barrens Region, <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Circular No. 22, Trenton,<br />
State <strong>of</strong> New Jersey and U.S.G.S.<br />
8. Barksdale, H.C., Greenman, D.W., Land, S.M., Milton, O.S.,<br />
Outlaw, D.E. (1958). Groundwater <strong>Resources</strong> in the Tri-State<br />
Region Adjaoent to the Lower Delaware River, Special Report<br />
No. 13, Trenton, State <strong>of</strong> New Jersey.<br />
9. Halasi-Kun, G.J. (1971). llAspects hydrologiques de la pollution<br />
et des reBsources en eau, dans lee domaines urbains et industriels,lt<br />
Actes du Congres: Scienoes et Techniques An 2000, Paris,<br />
SICP.<br />
10. Dub, O. (1957). Hydrologia, hydrografia, hydrometria, Praha-<br />
Bratislava, SVTL.<br />
11. Halasi-Kun, G. J, (1949) Hydrologia, Kosice.<br />
12. Halasi-Kun, G.J. (1954). Voda v polnohospodárstve(<strong>Water</strong> in Agriculture),<br />
Bratislava, SPN.<br />
13. Davis, St.N., Dewiest, R.J.M. (1966). Hydrogeology, New Yorlc-<br />
London-Sydney, Je Wiley 81 Sons .<br />
14. Linsleg, R.K.Jr., Kohler, M.A., Paulhus, J.L.H. (1968). <strong>Hydrology</strong><br />
for Engineers, New York - Toronto - London, hiCGraW-Hill.<br />
15. <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Data for New Jersey: 1961-1971, Part 1: Surface<br />
<strong>Water</strong> Records (1962-1972). Treiiton, U.S.G.S.
198<br />
FIGURE I: HYDROGRAPHICAL MAP OF SOUTHWEST GERMANY FROM<br />
THE UPPER-DANUBE REGION.
YEARS<br />
FIGURE 2: MAXIMUM' ANNUAL FLOOD OF THE DANUBE RIVER AT<br />
ORSHOVA, ROMANIA, 1840-1950.<br />
0 SERIES OF PEAK FLOOD DISCHARGES.<br />
@ AVERAGE PEAK FLOOD.<br />
@TREND OF THE AVERAGE PEAK FLOOD.<br />
199
LAKE AND SWAMP AREAIIN PERCENT OF DRAINAGE AREA<br />
201<br />
FOR WATERSHEDS OF 25.6-512km2 (BASED ON 67GAGHG STATIONS IN NEW JERSEY,<br />
USA I 1897 - 1972)<br />
------- FOR IIWTERCHED OF 576.240 km2 (DANUBE AT ORSHOVA,ROMANIA, 1840-1950 WE<br />
TO LAND RECLAMATION AND FLOOD CONTROL)<br />
FIGURE 4: ADJUSTMENT FACTOR FOR EFFECT OF LAKES AND SWAMPS ON PEAK RUNOFF<br />
IN NEW JERSEY, U.S.A. AND DANUBE AT ORSHOVA, ROMANIA
202<br />
Table 1: Peak Run<strong>of</strong>f Coefficient in Various Hydrogeologic Regions:<br />
Hydrogeologic Regions: Peak Run<strong>of</strong><br />
(formations) in Central Euroue:*<br />
(1) Kaolinite, Clay in-<br />
cluding argillaceous<br />
Triassic or Tertiary<br />
Paleogene Flysch<br />
(2) Paleozoic Shales,<br />
Schist and Mesozoic<br />
Mar 1<br />
(3) Igneous Rocks<br />
Tertiary Marl<br />
(5) Weathered Igneous<br />
Rocks, Limestone, Tuff<br />
(6) Mesozoic Triassic<br />
Brunswick Pormat ions .<br />
(7) Mesozoic Cretaceous<br />
Clayey Sands, Tertiary<br />
Eogene Clayey Sands<br />
(8) Tertiary Miocene Sands<br />
and Quaternary Moraines<br />
(9) Tertiary Neogene<br />
! (for peak run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
17 5-18.2<br />
14<br />
10<br />
7<br />
6<br />
7<br />
7<br />
1 9-2 5<br />
1.9-2 5<br />
1<br />
Coeff icient<br />
* Ratio <strong>of</strong> combined effeot for point rainfall i tensity and size<br />
<strong>of</strong> storm pattern in the two observed regions 113:<br />
1 to 8.2 = Eastern Czechoslovakia to New Jersey, U.S.A.<br />
147<br />
100<br />
81<br />
70<br />
69<br />
37<br />
30<br />
26<br />
12<br />
7.3
Table 2: Ground <strong>Water</strong> Availability in Various Hydrogeologic<br />
Regions and Their Average Permeability:<br />
(format ions )<br />
(i) Kaolinite, Clay in<br />
eluding argillaceous<br />
Triassic or Tertiary<br />
Paleogene Flysch<br />
(2) Paleozoic Shales,<br />
Schist and Mesozoic<br />
hfarl<br />
(3) Igneous Rooks<br />
(except Basalt,Diabase<br />
Sandst ones y Meeozoio<br />
't'riassic Stockton Form<br />
(4) Dolomite, Besalt a<br />
Tertiary Marl<br />
(5) Weathered lgneoae<br />
Rocks, Limestone a Tuff<br />
(6) MeeOZQiO Triassio<br />
Brunmiak Formations<br />
(7) Mesozoio Cretacteou<br />
Clayey Sands Tertiary<br />
Eogene Clayey Sands<br />
(8) Tertiary Miocene 3 nde<br />
and Quaternary Moraine 'I<br />
(10) Quaternary Beach<br />
Sands (cape May Form.)<br />
Woundwater Availability<br />
in New Jersey, U.S.A.<br />
(in mm/year [5,6,7,8)):<br />
Y<br />
d<br />
17 - 25 7<br />
less than 47<br />
63<br />
87 - 125<br />
150<br />
200-225<br />
2 50<br />
300<br />
3 50<br />
455<br />
203<br />
verage Permea-<br />
ility in milli-<br />
arcys 113,144 ) :<br />
1<br />
2<br />
1-1.9<br />
2<br />
2.5<br />
42<br />
3<br />
62<br />
7<br />
102-lP2<br />
102-142<br />
18.22<br />
Values are based on over 70,000 well-reoord files <strong>of</strong> domestic and<br />
industrial wells <strong>of</strong> the State <strong>of</strong> New Jersey from the period <strong>of</strong><br />
1947-1972. Further information especially for regions (2),(3)y<br />
(6) and (71, is in references ba6,TY8,13,143. The form <strong>of</strong> data<br />
on average permeability makes easy comparison <strong>with</strong> Figure 5.
204<br />
Table 3: Lowest Run<strong>of</strong>f Coefficient in Various Hydrogeol. Regions:<br />
ifydrogeologic Regions:<br />
Lowest Run<strong>of</strong>f Coefficient<br />
( f orrnat ions)<br />
tn Central Europe: I in New<br />
I<br />
Jersey, U.S.A.;<br />
(for lowest run<strong>of</strong>f values in ï/seo.km2)<br />
(i) Tiaoïinite, Clay inc<br />
luding argillaceous<br />
Triassic or Tertiary<br />
Paleogene Flysch<br />
O *3-O 6<br />
0-0 26<br />
(2) Paleozoic Shales,<br />
Schist and h4e s oz oio<br />
Marl<br />
3) Igneous Rocks<br />
I except Basalt,Diabase)<br />
0-1 70<br />
Sands t ones , Mes oz oio<br />
Triassio Stockton Form.<br />
(4) Dolomite, Basalt an<br />
Tertiary Marl<br />
*<br />
1-2<br />
O 17-0 79<br />
(5) 'Neathered Igneous<br />
Rocks, Limestone, Tuff<br />
(6) Mesozoio Triassi0<br />
Brunswick Formations<br />
(7) Mesozoic Cretaoeous<br />
Clayey Sands, Tertiary<br />
Eogene Clayey Sands<br />
(8) Tertiary Miooene Sands<br />
and Quaternary Moraines<br />
(9) Tertiary Neogene<br />
Sands, Mesozoic Cretaoeous<br />
Magothy-Raritan Formations,<br />
aternary River Drift<br />
O) Quaternary Beach<br />
ande (cape May Form.) -<br />
**<br />
4-5 68<br />
bless than 0.3"<br />
O. 62-0 91<br />
2 71-5 75
-- ABS TRACT<br />
-<br />
DETERMINATION OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT AND SNOWMELT WATER<br />
BY THICKNESS OF SNOW COVER DATAS<br />
George Kovács - George Molnár<br />
Res-earch Institute for <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Develapment ,<br />
Budapest, Hungary'<br />
In studies on the accumulation- and melting process <strong>of</strong> snow bulk<br />
densities have been determined for fresh snow (Ymin), for snow saturated<br />
by capillarv water (y,> and for melting snow (ymax). Correlation<br />
studies have shown the magnitudes <strong>of</strong> y and Ymax to depend<br />
greatly on the number (RI Qf snow lagreps, Tke equations insolying the<br />
bulk densities listed above form the Basi's <strong>of</strong> tEe computation charts<br />
prepared by the authors. These can be applied to two tñus far unsolved<br />
problems: I. the reconstruction <strong>of</strong> past time serpes <strong>of</strong> water equi<br />
valent values for observing statìons w?tk data on tñe thi'ckness <strong>of</strong> the<br />
snow cover o<strong>nl</strong>y, and 2. forecasting the duration <strong>of</strong> the melting period<br />
and <strong>of</strong> the volume <strong>of</strong> snow-melt water form data on the thickness <strong>of</strong> cover<br />
and the air temperature predicted for the melting period.<br />
Au cours de l'analyse du phénomene d'accumulation et de fonte de<br />
e les auteurs ont déterminé le poids volumétrique (y min,<br />
) initial de la neige fraiche, le poids volumétrique (y ,<br />
) de la neige a capìllaire-saturatton, le poids volum&tbique<br />
(y max, [g/cm3] 1 de la neige en fonte, Les analpee correllati'onalles<br />
ont démontré que les valeurs de y et y max dépendent d'une mesure con<br />
k<br />
sidérable du nombre de couches de\la neige (7). Ce sont les equationsexprimant<br />
les poids volum~tri'qne prê=nt&ea pl.pe- EaPt qui servent de<br />
base au diagrama des auteurs, ce dernier permettant la solution de<br />
deux problemes jusqu'alors irrésolus: 1. Réalisation rétrospective des<br />
séries de données, dépendantes du temps, pour l'équivalent neige-eau<br />
dans le cas ou l'on n'a procédé qu'a l'observation de l'épaisseur de<br />
la neige, 2. Pronostics concernant la durse de la fonte et de la quantité<br />
d'eau qui s'y produit, a la Lase d'une épaisseur mesurée et d'une<br />
température prévue pour la période de fonte.
206<br />
ïNTPnODUCTIOIJ<br />
In water budget calculations, on the income side the snow or<br />
the meltage <strong>of</strong> snow is <strong>of</strong> great importance. The forecasting <strong>of</strong><br />
spring floods and undrained run<strong>of</strong>f waters, the planning <strong>of</strong> reser-<br />
voir operation during the melting period and other problems re-<br />
quire more accurate information on snow accumulation and melting,<br />
the continuous observation <strong>of</strong> the water content stored in the snow<br />
cover, $he recovery <strong>of</strong> past data and the reconstruction <strong>of</strong> snow<br />
water reoords <strong>with</strong> the help <strong>of</strong> observation data available. Above<br />
all the thickness <strong>of</strong> mow cover should be considered which has<br />
been continuously observed at more than 1000 stations for nearly<br />
100 years in Hungary. The network <strong>of</strong> water equivalent measuring<br />
stations, however, works o<strong>nl</strong>y from 1960, comprising presently 60<br />
s tat i onse<br />
The paper summarizes the investigations'aiming at the dis-<br />
covery <strong>of</strong> the relation between snow cover thickness and snow-water<br />
equivalent on the basis <strong>of</strong> the numerous (about 200 O00 per eeason)<br />
data for the 12 years between 1960 and 1971.<br />
1. THE PROCESS OF TIB DEVELOPWT, ACCüMüUTION<br />
AND MELTING OF SNOW<br />
1.1 The development and accumulation <strong>of</strong> snow<br />
Snow crystals are formed by the hexagonal ice prisms deposit-<br />
ed around the concentration cores (soot, dust, etc.) overcooled to<br />
-15 - -25OC in the high regions <strong>of</strong> the atrnosphere.Lom temperatures<br />
(-10 - -15OC) and high moisture contents are conducive to the for-<br />
mation <strong>of</strong> crystals containing large, ramifying pore apace and to<br />
the deposition <strong>of</strong> these crystals. Under reversed circumstances<br />
(temperature around O°C, low moisture content) so called cylindric<br />
crystals and needles <strong>of</strong> ice will develop and deposit densely pack-
ed, <strong>with</strong> high bulk density on the soil surface Il, 4, 103.<br />
The distribution examination performed using numerous data to<br />
determine the bulk density rg/cm31 <strong>of</strong> fresh snow having an<br />
intact crystal structure and containing no capillary water at all,<br />
yielded the following result:<br />
*min<br />
P 0.118 i 0.028<br />
3<br />
Ig/cm 3<br />
From the beginning <strong>of</strong> accumulation the snow cover becomes<br />
continuously more compact and its bulk density increases accord-<br />
ingly. This is the consequence on the one hand <strong>of</strong> the closer and<br />
closer agglomeration <strong>of</strong> snow crystale and, on the other hand, <strong>of</strong><br />
the increase <strong>of</strong> capillary water content stored in the pore spaces<br />
between the crystals. The increase in bulk density is caused by<br />
the combined effect <strong>of</strong> external (temperature, sunshine, wind,etc.)<br />
and internal (the weight <strong>of</strong> snow, etc.) factors to which the snow<br />
cover is exposed C3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 91.<br />
Obviously, the discharge <strong>of</strong> snow-melt water can o<strong>nl</strong>y start<br />
when the capillary pores between the crystals have already been<br />
saturated <strong>with</strong> water.<br />
The bulk density <strong>of</strong> mow saturated <strong>with</strong> water is called the<br />
critical bulk density (a,)<br />
1.2 The process <strong>of</strong> mow melting<br />
According to the correlation examinations performed to de-<br />
termine the critical bulk density (rk), the development <strong>of</strong> rk con-<br />
siderably dependa on the number CR) <strong>of</strong> snow layers developed dur-<br />
ing accumulation. During a cold spell following a temporary melt-<br />
ing period <strong>with</strong> a duration <strong>of</strong> a few days, a lager <strong>of</strong> ice will de-<br />
velop on the surface which layer separates the old and the newly<br />
fallen fresh mow. In the case <strong>of</strong> repeated recurrence <strong>of</strong> this<br />
phenomenon the snow layer is dissected into clearly distinguish-<br />
able layers, the number(R) <strong>of</strong> which is a good indicator <strong>of</strong> the<br />
207
208<br />
periodicity <strong>of</strong> accumulation and melting. The variations - i.e. the<br />
periodic fluctuation - in the snow thickness time series is a good<br />
basis for estimating the number <strong>of</strong> layers. The reliability <strong>of</strong> es-<br />
timation remarkably increases, if, besides the snow thickness re-<br />
cord also the air temperature record is available.<br />
The relation between the numerous data <strong>of</strong> the critical bulk<br />
density (ak) and <strong>of</strong> the number <strong>of</strong> snow layers - both types <strong>of</strong> data<br />
obtained from the 12 years long period between 1960 and 1971 - is<br />
described by the following regression equation:<br />
rk = 0.153 +<br />
3<br />
0.050 R 2 0.025 Edcm 3<br />
Performing the correlation examination separately <strong>with</strong> the<br />
data obtained from the mountaina and the lowlands, the following<br />
equations were obtained:<br />
'a<br />
km, t ain<br />
* 'lowland<br />
(2)<br />
= 0.160 + 0,042R 2 0.032 Ig/cm33 (3)<br />
t 0.146 + 0.052R 2 0,028 Cg/cm33<br />
It is interesting to note that the slope <strong>of</strong> the curve is some<br />
20 % flatter in the mountains than in the lowlands. This is prob-<br />
ably due to the fact that on the slopes in the mountain areas, the<br />
water <strong>of</strong> a short melting period can immediately flow down, so that<br />
here the ice layers frozen subsequently will be relatively thinner<br />
than in the lowlands.<br />
Melting starts at the instant <strong>of</strong> capillary saturation,i.e. at<br />
the development <strong>of</strong> the critical bulk density. In the course <strong>of</strong><br />
melting, the ice crystals are merged and destroyed progressively<br />
and become eventually completely liquid. During this process the<br />
bulk density <strong>of</strong> snow grows continuously until its maximum value is<br />
reached. The maximum bulk density (rma) is calculated using the<br />
regression equation:<br />
max = 0.213 + 0.054R $; 0.035 Cg/cm33 c 5)
209<br />
The duration (mo) <strong>of</strong> meltinq - as verified by the examina-<br />
tions performed - depends primarily on the temperature conditions<br />
prevailing during the melting period and on the amount (A h) <strong>of</strong><br />
snow-melt water.<br />
In the course <strong>of</strong> studies aimed at the discovery <strong>of</strong> the rela-<br />
tion between the different values <strong>of</strong> temperature and the amount <strong>of</strong><br />
meltage numerous potential relations were tested, <strong>of</strong> which<br />
Ah = f(K) K æ tmax + tmin<br />
3<br />
( 6)<br />
has been selected as the beat, in which tmax and tDin are the<br />
maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively, prevailing during<br />
the individual days <strong>of</strong> the melting period.<br />
The daily temperature value can be computed <strong>with</strong> Eq.(6) is<br />
called rneltinR heat standard (K, ['CI).<br />
To calculate the duration <strong>of</strong> melting the relation<br />
can be used where is the daily average melting heat standard <strong>of</strong><br />
the week after melting has started.<br />
It will readily be seen that the knowledge <strong>of</strong> the expected<br />
average maximum and minimum temperatures forecast in Hungary for a<br />
week by the National Meteorological Service is essential for pre-<br />
dicting the duration <strong>of</strong> the melting period.<br />
2. NEW CALCULATION METHODS<br />
Using the research results demonstrated above two as yet un-<br />
solved problems can be approached:<br />
- The creation and reconstruction <strong>of</strong> mow-water equivalent time<br />
series - essential in hydrological practice - for snow measuring
21 o<br />
stations where o<strong>nl</strong>y snow thickness observations are or were per-<br />
formed. In this way the water equivalent time series can be ex-<br />
tended in time for the duration <strong>of</strong> snow thickness observations.<br />
- Forecasting the volume <strong>of</strong> snow-melt water and the length <strong>of</strong> the<br />
meltirg period on the basis <strong>of</strong> the snow thickness measured and<br />
<strong>of</strong> the air temperature forecast for the melting period.<br />
To solve these two problems the chart shown in Fia.1 has been<br />
constructed, the use <strong>of</strong> which and the course <strong>of</strong> calculation are<br />
demonstrated using the data obtained in 1963 at one <strong>of</strong> the snow-<br />
-water equivalent measuring stations - Dombori puszta - in the<br />
lowlands. Since snow thickness and the water equivalent were ob-<br />
served simultaneously, the checking <strong>of</strong> the methods is also pos-<br />
sible.<br />
2.1 Producing the snow-water eauivalent time series <strong>of</strong> the Deri0.d<br />
examined from <strong>of</strong> snow thickness data<br />
In the period examined - from the 11th <strong>of</strong> January to the 9th<br />
<strong>of</strong> March - snow was stored continuously. Within the period, = as<br />
revealed by the snow thickness time series in the upper part <strong>of</strong><br />
Fig. 2 - three greater intermediate and from the 2nd <strong>of</strong> March a<br />
final melting occured.<br />
a] To produce the snow-water equivalent time series the snow<br />
bulk density time series must be reproduced first from the snow<br />
thickness data available. in the calculation the bulk density <strong>of</strong><br />
the freeh snow is supposed to be<br />
in all cases.<br />
rmin = 0.118<br />
3<br />
idcm 3<br />
During accumulation, when snow thickness is increasing, the<br />
average bulk density <strong>of</strong> the whole snow cover is calculated suppos-<br />
ing that the increment has also a bulk density <strong>of</strong> 0.118 g/cm3.
211<br />
E.g.: On the 19th <strong>of</strong> February the snow cover is 25.2 cm thick and<br />
has a bulk density <strong>of</strong> 0.320 g/cm 3 . Next day an additional<br />
amount <strong>of</strong> 1.6 cm snow cover fell. Thus the composition <strong>of</strong><br />
the mow layer is calculated <strong>with</strong> the layers having<br />
and<br />
25.2 cm (94 %) thickness and 0.320 g/cm3 bulk density<br />
1.6 cm (6 %) thickness and 0.118 g/cm3 bulk density<br />
i.e. total 26,8 cm thickness and 0.308 g/cm3 bulk density.<br />
On the first day (nk) <strong>of</strong> the particular temporary and <strong>of</strong> the<br />
final meltings the critical bulk density ( k) <strong>of</strong> the snow cover is<br />
taken into account <strong>with</strong> the corresponding number <strong>of</strong> layers.<br />
In the example, using part A) <strong>of</strong> the chart:<br />
rI.i5.<br />
ìr 11.12.<br />
r 11.21.<br />
r 111.2.<br />
= 0.202 g/cm3 because R = 1<br />
E 0.252 g/cm3 because R = 2<br />
t- 0,302 g/cm3 because A = 3<br />
E 0,351 g/cm3 because R = 4<br />
(These values are the solutions <strong>of</strong> Eq.(2) substituting<br />
R = 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively.)<br />
On the last day <strong>of</strong> the particular temporary and <strong>of</strong> the final<br />
meltings the maximum bulk density <strong>of</strong> the snow cover is taken into<br />
account <strong>with</strong> the corresponding number <strong>of</strong> layers (see part A./ <strong>of</strong><br />
the chart). Thus<br />
bx.is.<br />
r11.19.<br />
ìf 11.23.<br />
r111.9.<br />
= 0.267 g/03 because R 5 i<br />
= 0.320 g/cm3 because R = 2<br />
o 0.374 g/cm3 because R = 3<br />
= 0.428 g/cm3 because R = 4<br />
(These values are the solutions <strong>of</strong> Eq.(3) substituting<br />
B e 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively.)<br />
Accordingly, the skeleton <strong>of</strong> the bulk density time series is<br />
formed by the values rk and Y, chosen as the function <strong>of</strong> the<br />
value min and <strong>of</strong> the number <strong>of</strong> layers. Intermediate values can
21 2<br />
o<strong>nl</strong>y be estimated. In the period <strong>of</strong> accumulation the method al-<br />
ready demonstrated is used. in the melting period i.e. when the<br />
thickness <strong>of</strong> snow cover decreases,a linear interpolation consider-<br />
ing the change <strong>of</strong> thicknees is made to choose values betweenthe<br />
critical and maximum bulk density.<br />
With these considerations the whole time series <strong>of</strong> bulk den-<br />
sity can be produced.<br />
b) Once the lime series <strong>of</strong> snow thickness (v) measured and <strong>of</strong><br />
bulk density(J-) calculated are available, the time series <strong>of</strong> wa-<br />
ter equivalent (h) can be computed by the following equation:<br />
h Cmml = Cg/cm31 . 10 v Ccml (8)<br />
In Fig. 2, the data series <strong>of</strong> bulk density and <strong>of</strong> water equi-<br />
valent computed <strong>with</strong> the method demonstrated above are compared<br />
<strong>with</strong> the time aeries <strong>of</strong> data measured.<br />
2.2 Forecast <strong>of</strong> snow meltinq<br />
To demonstrate the method <strong>of</strong> forecasting the knowledge <strong>of</strong><br />
o<strong>nl</strong>y the snow cover thickness and <strong>of</strong> air temperature is suppoeed.<br />
a] First the initial water equivalent (ho) <strong>of</strong> the snow at the<br />
start <strong>of</strong> melting is to be determined. This can be read directly<br />
from diagram B <strong>of</strong> the chart.<br />
In the example, at the start <strong>of</strong> final melting on the 2nd <strong>of</strong><br />
March the thickness <strong>of</strong> mow cover containing 4 layers was 21.0 cm.<br />
A reading in the direction <strong>of</strong> the fat line on the chart yields an<br />
initial water equivalent <strong>of</strong><br />
ho = 74.0 2 6 Cmm],<br />
i.e. melting is expected to produce<br />
74.0~6 rn <strong>of</strong> snow-melt water<br />
(the water equivalent actually measured was 71.6 mm, i.e. o<strong>nl</strong>y 4 %
less than computed).<br />
b) With the water equivalent obtained as described above, and<br />
using the data on minimum and maxim air temperature forecast for<br />
the melting period, the duration (mo) <strong>of</strong> the melting period is<br />
estimated by means <strong>of</strong> part C <strong>of</strong> the chart.<br />
The meltina heat standard (K) needed for using the chart is<br />
calculated from Eq46).<br />
In the present example, for the week following the start <strong>of</strong><br />
melting = 5.6OC was obtained.<br />
Consequently, by reading in the direction <strong>of</strong> the fat line, a<br />
melting period <strong>of</strong><br />
rn =3 8 2 1 days<br />
O<br />
is predicted for the snow cover having a water equivalent <strong>of</strong><br />
74.0 mm. (The actual melting period measured was 7 days).<br />
Note that the forecaet described should be repeat.ed daily<br />
<strong>with</strong> the latest data to make continuous allowance for changes in<br />
the weather.<br />
s x a t<br />
From the results <strong>of</strong> error analyses performed for checking the<br />
two methods and from the first experiences gained <strong>with</strong> their ap-<br />
plication, the methods described for calculating the water equi-<br />
valent and forecasting snowmelt appear to be <strong>of</strong> practical interest.<br />
21 3
21 4<br />
REZERENCES<br />
Cil Karo1.B.P.: Snow cover (in Russian)<br />
Gidrometeorológitsheskoe izdátelstwo<br />
Leningrad, 1949.<br />
L23 Kovács.Gy.: The altitude system <strong>of</strong> snow conditions in the<br />
winter 1968-69. (in Hungarian)<br />
Annual report on the work <strong>of</strong> VITTJKI 1972, Buda-<br />
pest<br />
L31 Kovács G The development, accumulation and melting <strong>of</strong><br />
snow, the measurement and calculation <strong>of</strong> these<br />
features ( in Hungarian)<br />
Bogdhffy, be Pályázat . 1973, Budapest<br />
141 Kuzmin.P.P.: Physics <strong>of</strong> the snow cover (in Russian)<br />
Gidrometeoizdat, 1957.<br />
151 Péczels,Gy.: The consideration <strong>of</strong> the accumulation and melt-<br />
ing <strong>of</strong> snow in the analysis <strong>of</strong> the precipitation<br />
system <strong>of</strong> catchments (in Hungarian)<br />
Idójárás 1969/1, Budapest<br />
161 Sa1amin.P.: The examination <strong>of</strong> snow melting in the Bükk<br />
mountains in Hungarian)<br />
Id6járás 1 4 56/5, Budapest<br />
173 Sa1amin.P.: The problems <strong>of</strong> the examination <strong>of</strong> snow melting<br />
(in Hungarian)<br />
Discussion. Department <strong>of</strong> Agricultural Sciences,<br />
Hungarian Academy <strong>of</strong> Sciences, 1-3. IX. 1956.<br />
183 Sa1amin.P.: The influence <strong>of</strong> the relief on the accumulation<br />
and melting <strong>of</strong> snow (in Hungarian)<br />
Hidrológiai Köalöny 1960, Budapest<br />
191 To1lan.A.: Determination <strong>of</strong> Areal Values <strong>of</strong> the <strong>Water</strong> Equi-<br />
valent <strong>of</strong> Snow in a Representativ Basin<br />
(in English)<br />
Mordisk Hidrologisk Konferenc, Stockholm 1970.<br />
Li01 Yosida.2.: Physical Studies on Deposited Snow I-IV.<br />
(in Enalish)<br />
Gechanical Properties.<br />
Contributions from the Institute os Snow Tem-<br />
perature Suence, Sapporo, 1956.
RECONSTRUCTION OF THE WATER EQUIVALENT<br />
TIME SERIE8 OF JANUARY TO MARCH, 1963 AT<br />
DOHBORI PUSZTA.<br />
0,600<br />
0,500<br />
w 0,100<br />
- C0b:PU TED<br />
-_ OBSER VF D<br />
21 5
o<br />
216
EVALUATION OF LOCAL WATER RESOURCES IN AN SEMI-ARID,<br />
HARD ROCK REGION BY USING PHOTO-HYDROLOGICAL INDICES<br />
ABSTRACT<br />
By: A.M.J. MEIJERINK<br />
The local water resources <strong>of</strong> a semi-arid, hard rock<br />
area have been evaluated in a rapid, but approximate way,<br />
by using information derived from aerial photographs and<br />
from field observations.<br />
The sizes <strong>of</strong> irrigated areas <strong>of</strong> open, wide diameter<br />
wells, and <strong>of</strong> small reservoirs, have been taken as indices<br />
for the storage <strong>of</strong> groundwater and for the run<strong>of</strong>f generating<br />
capacity <strong>of</strong> small watersheds up -to a size <strong>of</strong> 40 kms2.<br />
Geological and geomorphological influences on the<br />
groundwater storage and the recharge <strong>of</strong> the wells, could be<br />
established.<br />
By means <strong>of</strong> a judgment <strong>of</strong> the catchment characteris-<br />
tics, the relative run<strong>of</strong>f could be estimated.<br />
RESUMEN<br />
The limitations <strong>of</strong> the use <strong>of</strong> the indices are discussed.<br />
Los recursos hfdricos locales de una zona semi-árida,<br />
de rocas de baja permeabilidad, han sido evaluados de una<br />
forma rápida pero aproximada, mediante el uso de información<br />
obtenida de fotografías aéreas y de observaciones de campo.<br />
Los tamalios de las áreas irrigadas por pozos abiertos<br />
de amplio diámetro y por pequeños estanques, han sido toma-<br />
dos como indices de la reserva de agua subterránea y de la<br />
capacidad generadora de la escorrentia de pequefias cuencas,<br />
hasta de 40 km2. de extensión.<br />
Se pudo establecer las influencias geológicas y geo-<br />
morfológicas en las reservas y en la recarga de los pozos.<br />
Evaluando las características de las cuencas se pudo<br />
estimar la escorrentla relativa.<br />
Se discuten asimismo las limitaciones 'del uso de los<br />
indices.
218<br />
I. Introduction.<br />
The aim <strong>of</strong> this paper is to show the use <strong>of</strong> photo-interpretation for the<br />
assessment <strong>of</strong> the local water resources in a semi-arid region, underlain by hard<br />
rocks <strong>with</strong> little storages.<br />
The region studied is a part <strong>of</strong> the Cuddapah Basin in south India (see figure 1 ),<br />
where the agriculture depend on the meager local water resources.<br />
By means <strong>of</strong> photo-interpretation the distribution and the relative quantities<br />
<strong>of</strong> the ground- and surface water resources could be studied.<br />
The study consisted <strong>of</strong> a simple differentiation <strong>of</strong> the area in more or less<br />
hydrologically homogeneous units and <strong>of</strong> an analysis <strong>of</strong> the irrigated areas <strong>with</strong>in<br />
the various terrain unit s.<br />
The sizes <strong>of</strong> the irrigated areas are in fact a control <strong>of</strong> the interpretation<br />
procedures and also an indicator <strong>of</strong> the hydrological situations.<br />
Approach.<br />
The following approach for the interpretation procedures has been adopted:<br />
____________________------_-_<br />
Differentiation <strong>of</strong> the region.<br />
The region has to be divided in certain 'landscapes'. Each landscape has<br />
its own complex <strong>of</strong> gross hydrological processes and gross water resources<br />
which differ from those in adjoining landscapes.<br />
Within each landscape there are a number <strong>of</strong> smaller land components which,<br />
on a reconnaissance scale, may be considered to be hydrologically homogeneous.<br />
The land components may be <strong>of</strong> erosional or denudational nature such as a<br />
dissected alluvial fan y an inselberg complex <strong>with</strong> the surrounding<br />
embayments y etc.<br />
The land components may be sub-differentiated, if necessary, in land elements.<br />
The land elements are described here as terrain units which are closely<br />
associated <strong>with</strong> simple hydrological processes.<br />
An example <strong>of</strong> a land element in this study is: an area <strong>with</strong> well terraced<br />
agricultural fields, which are capable <strong>of</strong> storing appreciable quantities <strong>of</strong><br />
surface run<strong>of</strong>f.<br />
Practical, rather than theoretical considerations are at the base <strong>of</strong> this scheme<br />
<strong>of</strong> land differentiation.<br />
However, the 'landscape' which has been described above, may be compared <strong>with</strong><br />
Verstappen's 'Main geomorphological Unit (1 96fl), <strong>with</strong> the 'Land System' <strong>of</strong> the<br />
Oxford Working Group (Brink et al. 1966) and <strong>with</strong> the 'Mesnosti' <strong>of</strong> the Eussian<br />
Authors (Vinogradow 1968).<br />
In the area <strong>of</strong> study, the boundaries <strong>of</strong> the landscapes follow closely the<br />
boundaries <strong>of</strong> the main lithological units.<br />
The close association between the landscape and the geology in the Cuddapah Basin<br />
is caused by two facts:<br />
1)<br />
2)<br />
The lithologies are markedly different from each other and large outcrop<br />
areas are formed because <strong>of</strong> structural conditions.<br />
The denudational development <strong>of</strong> the area under predominantly semi-arid<br />
conditions has resulted in the adjustment <strong>of</strong> the geomorphology to the<br />
pronounced geological fact ors.
- B. Hydrological evaluation.<br />
219<br />
Various landscapes occuring in the Basin, have been delineated and <strong>with</strong>in the<br />
landscapes a sub-differentiation was made <strong>of</strong> the land components and occasionally<br />
also <strong>of</strong> the land elements.<br />
The groundtruth <strong>of</strong> the interpretation, was in this particular case already<br />
available, because the author had carried out previously field checking <strong>of</strong><br />
interpreted geology and geomorphology <strong>of</strong> the basin during four field seasons.<br />
Moreover, a soil survey <strong>of</strong> representative strips in each landscape had been<br />
made by a third party.<br />
The possible hydrological significance has been estimated <strong>of</strong> the interpreted and<br />
mapped land components and land elements. The estimation is subjective.<br />
Details <strong>of</strong> the features, caused by overland flow and by concentrated sheet flow,<br />
as observed on the aerial photographs, have been used, as well as some other<br />
photographic characteristics. However, far more reliance was placed on the<br />
possible hydrological behaviour <strong>of</strong> the soils, weathered zones, superficial<br />
deposits, particulars <strong>of</strong> the lithology, etc.<br />
The photo-interpretation is thus mai<strong>nl</strong>y useful as a means <strong>of</strong> rapid inventarization<br />
and for the study <strong>of</strong> the inter-relationships <strong>of</strong> the interpreted features.<br />
The results <strong>of</strong> the mapping and the hydrological evaluation have then be compared<br />
<strong>with</strong> the outcome <strong>of</strong> the analysis <strong>of</strong> the index 'irrigated area'.<br />
In this text the emphasis is placed on the illustration <strong>of</strong> the use <strong>of</strong> the index<br />
in various terrain conditions, rather than on a description <strong>of</strong> the mapping<br />
procedures.<br />
The results obtained in three landscapes are discussed; first the groundwater<br />
occurrences, then the surface water resources.<br />
Nature <strong>of</strong> the index.<br />
This index is actually a composite index, as the irrigated area is not o<strong>nl</strong>y<br />
influenced by the available groundwater in the zone near the surface<br />
(the rocks are impermeable in unweathered conditions), but also by the irrigation<br />
practices. In the area, there are thousands <strong>of</strong> open wells, out <strong>of</strong> which irrigation<br />
water is lifted by animal traction. The open, wide diameter wells pumped for a<br />
number <strong>of</strong> hours are then left to recover for more than 24 hours.<br />
For the sake <strong>of</strong> briefness, a few examples are discussed.<br />
Because the agriculture is still carried out in a traditional manner, it has been<br />
assumed that the yield <strong>of</strong> the well is directly related to the size <strong>of</strong> the irrigated<br />
area.<br />
How accurate this relationship is, <strong>with</strong>in a given landscape, has not been<br />
investigated.<br />
As is discussed further on, it is not possible to compare the acreage per well<br />
<strong>of</strong> one landscape <strong>with</strong> another, because <strong>of</strong> differing soil conditions, crop<br />
rotation and water application.<br />
However, <strong>with</strong>in a landscape the irrigation practices seem to be uniform.<br />
Therefore, the following discussion pertains o<strong>nl</strong>y to the use <strong>of</strong> the index <strong>with</strong>in<br />
a landscape.
220<br />
8-<br />
&le showing the effects <strong>of</strong> geomorphology on the occurence <strong>of</strong><br />
groundwater.<br />
-<br />
Well clusters and the irrigated areas have been investigated on the Vempalli<br />
calcareous shales. A part <strong>of</strong> the area is shown in figure 2.<br />
It may be noted that the width <strong>of</strong> the recharge zone on the pediments, is<br />
related to the width <strong>of</strong> the irrigated areas. This relationship once established<br />
can be used to indicate potential irrigable areas by means <strong>of</strong> mapping the<br />
pediments in the area.<br />
Field observations have shown that the depth <strong>of</strong> weathering and <strong>of</strong> sheetwash<br />
deposits, increases on the pediments in downstream direction.<br />
On the upper parts, the unweathered bedrock is close to the surface and little<br />
infiltration can take place. However, firther downstream till the central<br />
drainage line is reached, the sheet flow may infiltrate partly, and recharge the<br />
- limited - quantities <strong>of</strong> groundwater.<br />
The relationship between width and recharge zone and width <strong>of</strong> irrigated area has<br />
been found useful for locating 'under irrigated' areas in this particular<br />
landscape.<br />
- G.<br />
=ample showing the use <strong>of</strong> statistical test for the evaluation <strong>of</strong> factors<br />
which influence the occurrence <strong>of</strong> groundwater.<br />
In a pediments landscape, the well indices have been used to compare the influences<br />
<strong>of</strong> the rock types on the well yields.<br />
Four sample areas have been selected at the downstream parts <strong>of</strong> the pediments, in<br />
a rather narrow zone near ephemeral rivers, in order to minimize the influence <strong>of</strong><br />
the morphological position.<br />
The four sample areas are underlain by slates, by sericitic schists, by biotite<br />
schists and by gneisses.<br />
An analysis <strong>of</strong> variance shows that the differences in the sample means are not<br />
significant at the 5% level. The sample sizes varied from n = 12 to n = 24.<br />
Hence it is concluded that the influence <strong>of</strong> the lithology in this area on the<br />
well yield is not significant. It should be noted however, that the rock types<br />
are rather impermeable anyhow. The similarity <strong>of</strong> the well yields is attributed to<br />
the effects <strong>of</strong> weathering, type <strong>of</strong> soils,calcareous and siliceous crusts and to the<br />
deposition <strong>of</strong> sheet wash deposits.<br />
A little south <strong>of</strong> the sample areas, approximately 200 la2, fossil aeolian sands<br />
lare covering the pediment surfaces. The thickness <strong>of</strong> the sand cover varies from 1<br />
to over 20 meters.<br />
It can be expected that the well yields are higher than in the area <strong>with</strong>out sands,<br />
because <strong>of</strong> the good infiltration possibilities in the sands and the higher specific<br />
yields <strong>of</strong> the sandy medium.<br />
This expectation is confirmed by the indeces. However, no significant differences<br />
in the well yields in this area could be detected, after the indices had been<br />
sampled in four areas. The sample areas have been selected on bxoad drainage<br />
divides and near ephemeral channels.
- D.<br />
Ekample showing the possibility <strong>of</strong> predicting approximate well yields<br />
f l o m _ s _ l l m p i e _ _ - ~ ~ - ~ ~ _______________<br />
~ - ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ - ~ ~ ~ ~<br />
In the three discussed examples, the nature <strong>of</strong> the recharge area was <strong>of</strong><br />
interest. In the granite landscape along the western margin <strong>of</strong> the Cuddapah<br />
Basin, it was possible to delineate the 'catchment' areas <strong>of</strong> individual wells,<br />
and thus compare the size <strong>of</strong> the 'catchment' or recharge area <strong>with</strong> the size<br />
<strong>of</strong> the area irrigated by the wells.<br />
The landscape in which three sample areas have been selected, consists <strong>of</strong><br />
convex interfluves and concave to flat valley bottoms. On the interfluves<br />
the depth <strong>of</strong> weathering varies from O to 5 meters. The soils are red coloured,<br />
loamy sands to sandy loams <strong>with</strong> stone lines. The soils in the valley bottom<br />
are grey coloured gritty clay loams to sandy clays.<br />
Althou& large outcrops may occur in or next to the valley bottom, the average<br />
depth <strong>of</strong> weathering seems there to be higher. Inselbergs are found scattered over<br />
the area.<br />
2 21<br />
The recharge area <strong>of</strong> individual wells have been sampled wherever the local<br />
relief was sufficiently high to delineate the drainage divides on the interfluves<br />
and where the irrigated areas could be differentiated from the surrounding<br />
non-irrigated fields.<br />
The three sample areas are shown in figure 1, from which it may be noted that<br />
the mean annual rainfall <strong>of</strong> the sample areas is about the same.<br />
The three areas seem to be similar in geological and geomorphological respects.<br />
The areas irrigated by wells are shown in figure 3a, and have been plotted as<br />
a function <strong>of</strong> the recharge area in the graph <strong>of</strong> figure 3b.<br />
This graph shows the combined results <strong>of</strong> the three sample areas.<br />
In all the three sample areas the correlation coefficients are significant at<br />
the 5% level (Spearman rank correlation statistic), while no significant<br />
differences have been found between the three correlations (kskall and Wallis<br />
test <strong>of</strong> variance). For practical purposes, the line <strong>of</strong> best fit, shown in the<br />
graph may be used as a guideline for the estimated yield <strong>of</strong> open wells as a<br />
function <strong>of</strong> the recharge area in the sampled landscape.<br />
The scatter <strong>of</strong> the plotted points indicate approximately the degree <strong>of</strong> accuracy<br />
<strong>of</strong> the estimate.<br />
Remarks.<br />
These few examples show how the index irrigated area may serve as a check on the<br />
expectations <strong>of</strong> the water occurrences and the approximate quantities, <strong>with</strong>in<br />
well defined landscapes.<br />
It is not possible to compare the indices <strong>of</strong> one landscape <strong>with</strong> another, because<br />
the index is very sensitive to variations in irrigation practice, type <strong>of</strong> irrigated<br />
soils and the type <strong>of</strong> crops.<br />
If the yields in the various landscape have to be compared, the index has to be<br />
transposed in actual well yields.<br />
However, by employing this index as a control on the expectations, the value <strong>of</strong><br />
the photo-interpretation is increased and the amount <strong>of</strong> field works is greatly<br />
reduced.
222<br />
1x1. Surface water.<br />
- ____________________________I___________-------------------------<br />
A. The use <strong>of</strong> the index 'area irrigated by water stored in small reservoirs'.<br />
While scanning the aerial photographs, an apparent relationship was noted<br />
between the size <strong>of</strong> the catchment and the size <strong>of</strong> the irrigated areas below<br />
reservoirs. The reservoirs are usually constructed across the main drainage<br />
line, and are thus in a position to store the full run<strong>of</strong>f, provided <strong>of</strong> course,<br />
that the capacity <strong>of</strong> the tanks is sufficiently high.<br />
The reservoir capacities cannot be estimated on the aerial photographs<br />
accurately, because they are very shallow, usually less than 2 meters deep.<br />
However, it may be supposed that the irrigated areas are closely adjusted to<br />
the average available quantities <strong>of</strong> water in the reservoirs.<br />
Thus, the irrigated areas are used as an index, or measure, for the run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
from the catchments. The selected catchments are smaller than 40 h2.<br />
Comparisien <strong>of</strong> the indices are o<strong>nl</strong>y possible in a well defined landscape.<br />
Differences in irrigation practices, type <strong>of</strong> irrigated soil, etc., prohibit<br />
the comparision <strong>of</strong> the indices from two or more different landscapes <strong>with</strong><br />
each other.<br />
Therefore, the index is mai<strong>nl</strong>y used to investigate whether variations <strong>of</strong> the<br />
catchment characteristics, <strong>with</strong>in a landscape, are associated <strong>with</strong> variations<br />
in the index.<br />
Before embarking on the discussion <strong>of</strong> the analysis, it may be useful to<br />
illustrate briefly the rainfall factors, the magnitude <strong>of</strong> the evaporation and<br />
the type <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f.<br />
- -------I------_-_-------------<br />
B. Rainfall, run<strong>of</strong>f and evaporation.<br />
Inspection <strong>of</strong> the daily rainfall records <strong>of</strong> a few stations in the area shows<br />
that most <strong>of</strong> the rainfall occurs during the summer monsoon (SW monsoon).<br />
The maximum daily rainfall in the winter monsoon (NE monsoon) is much lower,<br />
usually less than 20 mms. per day. Mean monthly rainfall varies from 150 mms.<br />
during the SW monsoon to 5 ms. during the dry months.<br />
The frequency <strong>of</strong> the maximum daily rainfall, based on the partial seriesis<br />
shown in figure 4. The days <strong>with</strong> more than 30 mms rainfall (arbitrary standard)<br />
have been used for the compilation.<br />
Field observations show that isolated showers tend to produce flashy run<strong>of</strong>f in<br />
this semi-arid area, where the catchments have little storage possibilities.<br />
However, according to the local population, the tanks get filled up mai<strong>nl</strong>y by<br />
prolonged rainfall. It is not uncommon that in the SW monsoon, during three<br />
consecutive days <strong>with</strong> rainfall, more than 100 mms are recorded.<br />
Such occasions cause overflow <strong>of</strong> the reservoirs.<br />
On the other hand, during dry years the tanks may not get filled up, or may not<br />
be replenished for the irrigation <strong>of</strong> the rfpening crops.<br />
Analysis <strong>of</strong> the irrigdted areas in some catchments, as measured on the aerial<br />
photographs, indicated that the tank capacities are not capable <strong>of</strong> storing the<br />
most important run<strong>of</strong>f events, This was found by comparing the irrigated areas,<br />
expressed per unit <strong>of</strong> catchment area, <strong>of</strong> two or more tanks in single catchments.<br />
The downstream irrigated area was larger in 10 out <strong>of</strong> 11 cases.
Although the run<strong>of</strong>f may be prolonged when successive rainy days <strong>with</strong> high<br />
rainfall amounts occur, the run<strong>of</strong>f decreases rapidly after the cessation <strong>of</strong> the<br />
rainfall. Most <strong>of</strong> the run<strong>of</strong>f seems to occur in the form <strong>of</strong> direct run<strong>of</strong>f <strong>with</strong><br />
very little interflow (throughflow) and base flow.<br />
2<br />
The ephemeral rivers <strong>of</strong> the small catchments (up to 40 lan ) have dried up<br />
practically <strong>with</strong>in a few days.<br />
The evaporation <strong>of</strong> the area is high. The highest mean monthly evapotranspiration<br />
in the area is 200 to 220 ms, and the minimum mean monthly value is 11 cms<br />
(at the time <strong>of</strong> the winterrains).<br />
bhenthemeanyearly evapotranspiration figures, which are based on the Modified<br />
Penman fomla, are compared <strong>with</strong> the rainfall figures, the water shortages in the<br />
area become obvious.<br />
The average depth <strong>of</strong> ihe tanks is usually very small (< 1.5 meters), but the<br />
size <strong>of</strong> the tanks is comparatively very large (5 - 50 hectares).<br />
Monthly evaporation rates <strong>of</strong> more than 10 cms reduce therefore the effective<br />
storage <strong>of</strong> the tanks appreciably.<br />
Factors that influence the size <strong>of</strong> the irrigated area.<br />
From the above discussion, it is obvious that the index 'size <strong>of</strong> irrigated<br />
area' is an inaccurate measure for the run<strong>of</strong>f <strong>of</strong> the catchments.<br />
It is difficult to say for example, to what duration and frequency <strong>of</strong> the<br />
discharges, the index is related.<br />
For the evaluation <strong>of</strong> the use <strong>of</strong> the index the following argument has been<br />
used:<br />
If the index is a perfect measure for the run<strong>of</strong>f production <strong>of</strong> the watersheds,<br />
a perfect correlation between the index and the size <strong>of</strong> the catchments can be<br />
expected. Variations in the relationship should be attributable to variations<br />
<strong>of</strong> the hydrological effects <strong>of</strong> the landcomporients.<br />
Actually, it is the variation caused by the land components <strong>with</strong>in a landscape,<br />
that is <strong>of</strong> interest in this study.<br />
However, the imperfectness <strong>of</strong> the index may be demonstrated by pointing out<br />
the following sources <strong>of</strong> error:<br />
1. Original differences in the capacities <strong>of</strong> the reservoirs, because <strong>of</strong><br />
topographical differences, construction <strong>of</strong> the overflow, etc.<br />
2. Reduction <strong>of</strong> the original reservoir capacities by sedimentation.<br />
Age and history (breakages, desilting operations) <strong>of</strong> the tanks may differ<br />
<strong>with</strong>in a landscape, also the sedimentation rates per unit <strong>of</strong> catchment area.<br />
3. Minor differences in the irrigation practices, water management.<br />
4. Interpretation and measuring errors on the aerial photographs.<br />
The variation caused by these 4 factors cannot be evaluated <strong>with</strong>out detailed<br />
measurements in the field.<br />
Despite the fact that the mentioned factors are an important source <strong>of</strong> error,<br />
in all the four sample areas, a significant correlation has been found between<br />
the parameters 'sise <strong>of</strong> catchment area' and 'sise <strong>of</strong> irrigated area'.<br />
223
224<br />
The influence <strong>of</strong> the land components on the index is discussed here for one<br />
large landscape, the 'Cumbum Landscape'.<br />
In aiiother landscape, the 'landscape on the eastern basement complex', rather<br />
similar results have been obtained, and need therefore little elaboration.<br />
However, on the third landscape, the one on the granites in the west, where<br />
the land components seem to be equally distributed in the landscape, significant<br />
differences have been found in two sample areas.<br />
In the other landscapes <strong>of</strong> the Cuddapah Basin, no sufficiently reliable<br />
measurements could be made for a proper analysis.<br />
--______________________________________----_--------------------<br />
The Cumbum landscape, an example <strong>of</strong> the run<strong>of</strong>f variation <strong>with</strong>in a landscape.<br />
Descript ion.<br />
The landscape on the shales, siltstones and phyllites <strong>with</strong> occasional<br />
limestone beds <strong>of</strong> the Cumbums, forms a separate landscape in the Cuddapah Basi<br />
although the geomorphology <strong>of</strong> the landscape is not uniform.<br />
In some parts <strong>of</strong> the area, weathered remnants <strong>of</strong> large but thin alluvial<br />
fans are found, supporting a dense vegetation <strong>of</strong> grassland and dense shrub.<br />
Other parts may consist <strong>of</strong> eroded terrain <strong>of</strong> varying relief and skeletical<br />
soils. South <strong>of</strong> this area extensive remnants <strong>of</strong> an old weathered planation<br />
level are found.<br />
Estimation <strong>of</strong> the relative run<strong>of</strong>f from the aerial photographs.<br />
The run<strong>of</strong>f producing and run<strong>of</strong>f-storing land components in the watersheds<br />
have been interpreted and mapped.<br />
Land use features and geomorphological elements have been mapped separately,<br />
but have been plotted on a single map.<br />
The joint effects <strong>of</strong> the land use and geomorphology on the run<strong>of</strong>f has been<br />
evaluated by means <strong>of</strong> arbitrary standards:<br />
Land use features such as fields surrounded by earthern walls, behind small<br />
retention structures, etc. are capable <strong>of</strong> storing run<strong>of</strong>f and the areas <strong>with</strong><br />
many <strong>of</strong> such features have been classified as 'areas <strong>with</strong> low run<strong>of</strong>f'.<br />
Overgrazed, poorly cultivated fields on sloping land, fall in the class<br />
'high run<strong>of</strong>f'. The other areas have simply been classified as medium run<strong>of</strong>f.<br />
Similarly, geomorphological elements, such as old weathered fans, thick<br />
slope deposits, buried pediments and elements like heavily eroded soil<br />
bare outcrops, true pediment slopes etc, fall in two opposing classes; high<br />
and low run<strong>of</strong>f. The remaining elements <strong>with</strong> no evident extreme hydrological<br />
behaviour fall in the medium class.<br />
The percentages <strong>of</strong> the areas falling in the three land use and in the<br />
three geomorpho12gical classes are then determined, and a final judgement<br />
puts the catchment in one <strong>of</strong> the three categories.<br />
The hydrological evaluation <strong>of</strong> the land components cannot be done <strong>with</strong>out<br />
sufficient field howledge. The procedure is arbitrary, and the results will<br />
therefore vary from one observer to another.<br />
Analysis.<br />
The graph <strong>of</strong> figure 5a shows the index 'irrigated area' as a function <strong>of</strong> the<br />
catchment area. The line <strong>of</strong> best fit has been established by graphical<br />
correlation (Linsley, Kohler, Paulhus 1949).<br />
For all the watersheds, shown on the graph, the run<strong>of</strong>f class has been<br />
estimated.
2 25<br />
The run<strong>of</strong>f class is now compared <strong>with</strong> the deviation <strong>of</strong> the plotted position<br />
<strong>of</strong> the points on the graph <strong>of</strong> figure 5a <strong>with</strong> the line <strong>of</strong> best fit.<br />
Points which are below the line <strong>of</strong> best fit are called negative deviations,<br />
those above the line, positive deviations.<br />
Theoretically, possitive deviations should be associated <strong>with</strong> high or medium<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f classes, negative deviations <strong>with</strong> medium or low run<strong>of</strong>f classes.<br />
The results <strong>of</strong> the comparision are shown in figure 5b.<br />
Ideally, in the case <strong>of</strong> high run<strong>of</strong>f, all points should fall in the positive<br />
range and the cases <strong>of</strong> low run<strong>of</strong>f should fall in the negative range.<br />
The cases <strong>of</strong> medium run<strong>of</strong>f should have a symetrical distribution and the<br />
magnitude <strong>of</strong> the deviation should be limited.<br />
As can be judged from the graph <strong>of</strong> figure 5b, no ideal result has been<br />
obtained, although the mediam values (see the graph) <strong>of</strong> the three run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
classes are at three different levels ( + 36, - 38 and - 96 ).<br />
It should be remembered that the procedure is arbitrary and that there are<br />
many causes <strong>of</strong> variation. The procedure followed, i.e. the author's<br />
judgment, leads to an underestimation <strong>of</strong> the storages and losses in the<br />
catchments. However, the method is not ment for an estimation <strong>of</strong> the<br />
absolute run<strong>of</strong>f production, but for an estimation <strong>of</strong> the relative differences<br />
<strong>of</strong> the run<strong>of</strong>f in the various catchments <strong>with</strong>in a landscape.<br />
For this purpose, we feel that the results <strong>of</strong> the comparision <strong>of</strong> the run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
estimates <strong>with</strong> the deviation <strong>of</strong> the index, are satisfactory, so that the<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f classification may be applied in this landscape <strong>with</strong> some confidence.<br />
The landscape on the granites and example <strong>of</strong> unexplained differences in the<br />
index.<br />
Catchments and irrigated areas have been measured in two samples areas on<br />
the granites, along the western margin <strong>of</strong> the Cuddapah Basin.<br />
!Che areas, denoted here <strong>with</strong> the northern and the southern area, are 250 lans<br />
apart. The mean annual rainfall in the two areas is to same, between 600 and<br />
700 mms. O<strong>nl</strong>y small differences, if any are expected in the frequencies <strong>of</strong> the<br />
partial series.<br />
As has been discussed earlier, in the section on groundwater, both areas seem<br />
to be highly similar in geological and geomorphological aspects.<br />
The relationships between the catchment area and the size <strong>of</strong> the irrigated areas,<br />
is shown in figure 6.<br />
The Kendall rank correlation coefficient for the northern sample area is 0.78,<br />
for the southern area 0.90. Both the correlations are significant at the 5% level.<br />
However, the two sample areas show a marked difference between the indices<br />
'irrigated area' as a function <strong>of</strong> catchment size.<br />
The Muskall and Wallis test showed that the difference <strong>of</strong> the two relationships<br />
is significant at the 5% level.<br />
The explanation <strong>of</strong> the difference is difficult.<br />
Its has been tried to explain the difference by some additional photo-measurements<br />
<strong>of</strong> factors, that might influence the size <strong>of</strong> the irrigated area.<br />
Within the catchments, the percentage <strong>of</strong> outcrop areas in the two sample areas<br />
have been compared, but no significant difference has been found.<br />
It was reasoned that the percentage <strong>of</strong> outcrop area would influence the run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
(and thus the index), because <strong>of</strong> the very low storage possibilities on the<br />
outcrops. The number <strong>of</strong> wells in the irrigated area have also been compared <strong>with</strong><br />
the irrigated area. It was thought that the wells, which re-use the water from<br />
the reservoirs, could be <strong>of</strong> influenoe. However, no significant correlation has bt.,:.?<br />
found.
226<br />
The explanation <strong>of</strong> the difference in the relationships may be hidden in<br />
factors, which are not measurable on the aerial photographs.<br />
In this particular area, it is suggested that perhaps, the age <strong>of</strong> the reservoirs<br />
is an important causative factor.<br />
In the southern area the reservoirs may be older than those in the northern<br />
area, so that the smaller irrigated areas in the southern area, may be explained<br />
by a reduction <strong>of</strong> the reservoir capacity by sedimentation.<br />
Discussion <strong>of</strong> the results.<br />
In the area <strong>of</strong> study, the index 'area irrigated by open wells and by small<br />
reservoirs' provides a useful means <strong>of</strong> control <strong>of</strong> the hydrological significance<br />
<strong>of</strong> the photographic interpretation procedures.<br />
However, the use <strong>of</strong> the index requires a good deal <strong>of</strong> local knowledge <strong>of</strong> the<br />
terrain characteristics, irrigation practices, etc.<br />
The index should be used in a careful way and the purely empirical character <strong>of</strong><br />
the index restricts its use to well defined landscapes.<br />
However, a number <strong>of</strong> practical applications <strong>of</strong> some tested relationships have<br />
been found for some landscapes in the Cuddapah Basin.<br />
The experience and confidence gained by the study <strong>of</strong> the landscapes and by the<br />
analysis <strong>of</strong> the index has been used for the hydrological evaluation <strong>of</strong> those<br />
landscapes, for which no sufficient indices could be sampled.<br />
It is believed by the author, that for similar semi-arid,areas on hard rocks<br />
an approach along the same lines could give useful results, particularly when<br />
no appropriate hydrological data are existing.<br />
The indices are rather typical for the area investigated, but have been used<br />
for other areas in india as well. In regions where such indices are not<br />
existing, or are not very meaninghl, the evaluation <strong>of</strong> the landcomponents has<br />
to rely on other field observations. The field observations and measurements<br />
may consist <strong>of</strong> oral information <strong>of</strong> water level fluctuations in wells,<br />
determination <strong>of</strong> approximate yields, measurement <strong>of</strong> the base flow discharges,<br />
perhaps the estimation <strong>of</strong> the bankful discharges, and so on.<br />
The approach consists, in short, <strong>of</strong>:<br />
1.<br />
2.<br />
3.<br />
4.<br />
5.<br />
Interpretation <strong>of</strong> geology, geomorphology and <strong>of</strong> aspects <strong>of</strong> soils,<br />
land use and vegetation.<br />
Differentiation <strong>of</strong> the regior. in 'homogeneous hydrological landscapes'.<br />
Provisional hydrological evaluation <strong>of</strong> the land components.<br />
Field checking <strong>of</strong> the interpretations and the collection <strong>of</strong> approximate<br />
hydrological data. The field work and the collection <strong>of</strong> data should have<br />
been planned on the basis <strong>of</strong> the interpretation results.<br />
Comparision <strong>of</strong> the results and final, approximate evaluation <strong>of</strong> the<br />
influences <strong>of</strong> the land components for the development <strong>of</strong> the local water<br />
resources.<br />
-0-o-o-
Ref e re n ce s<br />
2 21<br />
Brink A.B., Mabutt J.A., Webster R. and Beckett P.H.T. (1966)<br />
Report <strong>of</strong> the working group on land classification<br />
and data storage. Milit. Engng. Exp. Establ.<br />
Christchurch, England. Engng. Report no. 940.<br />
Verstappen H.Th. and Zuidam R.A. (1969) I.T.C. system <strong>of</strong><br />
geomorphological surveys. I.T.C. textbook <strong>of</strong> P.I.<br />
VII, 2. 49 pp.<br />
Vinogradov B.V. (1968) Airphoto methods in geographical research<br />
in the U.S.S.R. Photogrammetria 23 pp 17-94<br />
Linsley R.K., Kohler M.A. and Paulhus J.L.H. (1949) Applied<br />
<strong>Hydrology</strong> Mc. Graw Hill, New York
228<br />
I = GRANITE LANDSCAPE , II = CUMBUM LANDSCAPE ,<br />
III = LANDSCAPE ON EASTERN BASEMENT COMPLEX -<br />
A = ANANTAPUR , K = KURNOOL , C = CUDDAPAH<br />
700 = ISOHYET<br />
Figure 1 - Map showing location <strong>of</strong> landscapes and the outline <strong>of</strong> the<br />
Cuddapah Basin.<br />
Fiyre 2 - Irrigated area in relation to the width <strong>of</strong> the recharge area.<br />
( dots = open wells, white = pediments, hatches = hills ).
Figure 3a - Sample area on the landscape on the granites, showing drainage<br />
divides, thalwegs, wells (open circles), sampled wells (dots)<br />
and the corresponding recharge and irrigated areas.<br />
The schematical section indicates the depth <strong>of</strong> weathering.<br />
R E C H A R G E A R E A<br />
Figure 3b - Irrigated area as a function <strong>of</strong> recharge area, for three sample<br />
areas in the landscape on the granites.<br />
229
;"O1<br />
1.2<br />
1 .o<br />
4<br />
w<br />
m<br />
4.8<br />
FI<br />
W<br />
U<br />
H<br />
œ<br />
œ .4<br />
U<br />
.2<br />
2 3 o.<br />
,? -<br />
+<br />
(scale for III )<br />
I I I i ,<br />
0.4 1 .o 2 4 6<br />
I I I I I L I , , I<br />
0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 2 4 6 ô 10 years<br />
B E C U R R E N C E I N T E R V A L<br />
Figure 4 - Frequency curves <strong>of</strong> high daily rainfall (partial series), for<br />
three stations:<br />
I = Cuddapah, II = Kurnool, III = Anantapur.<br />
4 a 10 16 20 24 28 ~m2.<br />
D R A I N A G E A R E A<br />
Figure 5a - Area irrigated by reservoirs as a function <strong>of</strong> the catchent<br />
area for the Cumbum landscape.
Km2,<br />
2.8<br />
2.4<br />
2.0<br />
w<br />
m<br />
4<br />
1 .6.<br />
!a<br />
W<br />
I 3<br />
-4<br />
o 1.2<br />
H<br />
a<br />
e:<br />
H .a<br />
.4<br />
0<br />
rd<br />
5<br />
+<br />
200' -<br />
2 120<br />
3<br />
$ 40-<br />
3<br />
w o-<br />
M 40 -<br />
.rl C<br />
E! 120<br />
.rl<br />
*<br />
rl<br />
200<br />
-<br />
-<br />
-<br />
- IIII.I...IIL<br />
no. <strong>of</strong> catchments Y<br />
ii<br />
MEDIUA<br />
LOW<br />
Figure 5b - Results <strong>of</strong> comparison (see figure 5a and text).<br />
S A M P<br />
I. N.E.<br />
II. R A<br />
L E A R E A S :<br />
<strong>of</strong> K U R N O O L<br />
Y A C H O T I<br />
i/,-/ . ..<br />
/ +<br />
12 16 20 24 28<br />
D R A I N A G E A R E A<br />
231<br />
Figure 6 - Areas irrigated by reservoirs as a function <strong>of</strong> the catchment<br />
area. Two sample areas are shown <strong>of</strong> the landscape on the granites.
ABSTRACT<br />
APPLICATION OF SATELLTTE CLOUD PICTURES<br />
IN SNOW HYDROLOGY OF TKE AIMALAYAS AND<br />
IN THE ESTIMATION OP RAINFALL OVER INDIA<br />
DURING SOUTKWEST MONSOON SEASON.<br />
P.S. PANT and N.G. GUPTA<br />
Many <strong>of</strong> the rivers in the Indi'an suB-continent bave their ori-<br />
gins in the Himalayas. An important souTce <strong>of</strong> water supply for these<br />
rivers is, therefore, from the melting <strong>of</strong> the snow in the upper cat-<br />
chment o€ these rivers. As much <strong>of</strong> this region is inaccessible, the<br />
conventional observations are not availaBle, Examination <strong>of</strong> the sate-<br />
llite Television Pictures has revealed tñe possibility <strong>of</strong> estimating<br />
the snow coverage over the river basi'na in tke Hihalayas and thereby<br />
to estimate tlìe contriBution <strong>of</strong> snowmelt to tñe flow in tEese rivers.<br />
An attempt has also been made to estìmate the 24 hour rainfall amounts<br />
over the plains <strong>of</strong> India duTing tñe soutñwest monsoon seanson, using<br />
cloud imageries taken By wather satelli'tes. Tiìese estimates are found<br />
to be in reasona6le agreement witñ tñe values obtaihed by isohyetal<br />
analysis <strong>of</strong> actual Tai'nfall 8ata. Tfie ies<strong>nl</strong>ts'oBtaihed look promising.<br />
If confirmed from an analysis <strong>of</strong> several rainstorms, these will find<br />
wide application in estimation <strong>of</strong> 24 hour average areal rainfall over<br />
data sparse river catcñments.<br />
RESUME<br />
Plus de rivieres en le SuB-continent de l'Inde ont leur origi-<br />
ne dans les Himalayas. Une importante source de l'approvisionment<br />
d'eau pour ces rivieres est, donc, la fusion de neige dans la captation<br />
supérieure de ces rhi'eaes. Comme Seaancoup ae cette .pêg?on eat Pnacce-<br />
ssible, les observations de convention ne sont pas disponibles. Un ex5<br />
men de l'images têlévision du satellite a rdv'?lE! la possibilité pour<br />
estimer la enneigement sur les garages de rivières dans les Himalayas<br />
et ainsi pour évaluer le contribution pap la fusion de neilge an coule<br />
ment de ces rivilres. Un effort a &!té aussi Sai't pon? estihex la préci<br />
pitation pendant 24 heures sur les plaines ae l'Inde pendant la sud<br />
-ouest mousson par 'nauge photograpñ2es de satelliye du temps, Ces eya-<br />
luations sont d'accord raisonagle avec les valers obtenues par les ana<br />
lyses isohyetales de actuels prScipitation donnees. Les resultants se<br />
présentent bien, S'il est confirmé d'une analyse de plus de tempete de<br />
pluie, ces trouverent large application pour entilmer la précipitation<br />
asrienne pendant 24 heures sur la captation de rivières oh les données<br />
sont rares.
1. Ii@RDDUCTIDW<br />
1.1 &UIY rivers in India originate in the IIimalayas. The important<br />
some <strong>of</strong> water supply for these rivers, is the snow over the upper catchment<br />
amm. Wrefore mapping the sncw cover and its variation mer the Himslayas<br />
is vital to forecast the stream flow in theae rivers, which in turn is <strong>of</strong> groat<br />
inportance for generation OP power and irrigation through these rivers.<br />
1.2 Large p&s <strong>of</strong> the upper catchent <strong>of</strong> these rivera are inace8sibi.e<br />
mas and monitoring tho snow cover ard precipitation in these areas by comentional<br />
methods is difficult: With the advent <strong>of</strong> Polar Orbitting Satellites the<br />
possibïìity <strong>of</strong> mdtoring the abme-mentioned hylromerteorological parameters by<br />
reaiute sensing techniques has arisen. In the cloud imagery obtained through<br />
the satellites anow aver the Himalaya can be clearly recognbed.<br />
R is also<br />
reiativalg easy to identify individual river valleys on these satellite picturm<br />
d e r cloud f'roe conditions.<br />
1.3 Ih case <strong>of</strong> rivers whose stream flow ia mai<strong>nl</strong>y dependeat on precipitation<br />
it is inportant to evaluate a~ acourately as p0~sibI.e the distribution<br />
<strong>of</strong> precipitation <strong>with</strong> area and duration k? order to obtain run-<strong>of</strong>f from<br />
precipitation. 51 case <strong>of</strong> @lood forecasting the adàitional problem involved is<br />
that the 24 hour raFtiEaU data should be available eqmdi.tiousiy at the forecasting<br />
centre,( Since owll established conmsUnicatian links are nut available<br />
for ail the river catchment areas, it WU be advantageous if atleast a rough<br />
t38thIl&e <strong>of</strong> aerial precipitatiun (average) can be obtained frm in8tan'tBneoUS<br />
cloud imagery for calculating run-<strong>of</strong>f.<br />
1.4 Before one can make an attempt to derive the 24. hour precipitation<br />
m the basis <strong>of</strong> m instantaneous satellite cloud picture, one bas to knm<br />
the characteristics <strong>of</strong> rainfall ono ia trying to estimate. Over large parts<br />
<strong>of</strong> Pidia more than 75 per cent <strong>of</strong> the annual rainfall is received during the<br />
southwest mansoon season (June to September). During this seasong the rdnfall<br />
is not corrtinuou~ but ~ C W S in spells laethg for about 5 to 7 days. This Is<br />
uauolly associated <strong>with</strong> the occurrence <strong>of</strong> depressiona and their movement roughly<br />
dong the mowoon trough <strong>of</strong> lw pressure. These depressions which irsueliy<br />
fonn near the he4 <strong>of</strong> the Bay <strong>of</strong> Bengal cause locally heavy faUs varyiiig fra<br />
7 to 20 cm in 24. hour, The rainfall associated <strong>with</strong> them extends mer areas<br />
aa ïarge as 100,ûûû to 200,ooO sq. hs; In hilly areas rainfalls as high as<br />
25 to 35 cm in a day are recorded in assmiation <strong>with</strong> these depressions.<br />
Mansoon rabif& in general sbowe two diurnal peaks one in the afternoon d<br />
another in the early morning hours. It ia also noticed that the monsoon clod<br />
pattern, p&iCixlarly tbme comected <strong>with</strong> situations af monsoon depressions,<br />
do not show much äiffereme between the afternoon and the morning. It is therefore<br />
felt that the single satdite cloud pictures from the orbitting weather<br />
satellites can provide a fairly reasonable estimate <strong>of</strong> the +hour rainfall,
235<br />
1.5 in ader to attain reasombh auccees in our attempt to relate<br />
these satellite cloud bagery <strong>with</strong> aerial distribirticn <strong>of</strong> precipitation, we &ve<br />
choeen o<strong>nl</strong>y cccaaim Of raSn storms durhg the p1~oon season. Mher ue have<br />
&o restricted our attention to the plejm thua avo%dhg the complications that<br />
VU set in hilly areas, With these restrictions it is hopd that a reasonable<br />
degree <strong>of</strong> aucc888 can be achiwed,<br />
2. SNOW KyDRDi&GY OF HIULAYAS<br />
2.1 Monitoring <strong>of</strong> the snow cover over Hbhyaa far hy&dogical piurpases<br />
ha gained hportance in Tecent yoara in connection <strong>with</strong> cmstruction and<br />
operation <strong>of</strong> the dams cmatructed mer the rivers originating from the Himelayas.<br />
!i'he techniques wed in the application <strong>of</strong> satellite data for snaw mapping are<br />
basically those <strong>of</strong> Simple photo-htarpretaticm i.e., detailed vieu inapetion<br />
<strong>of</strong> individual photogmpha to identify the river comes and large valleys to<br />
detenuine the aerial extent <strong>of</strong> 8now cover and to make an estimate <strong>of</strong> the height<br />
<strong>of</strong> snowline.<br />
2.2 A duly au the aasessment <strong>of</strong> water flow ki River Sutlej by<br />
Satellite picturea was conducted by Gupta and abbi (1 ) . The aver Sutlej<br />
originate from Lakes B$Las d Mansarovar in Tibet and foUons a aourse <strong>of</strong> about<br />
@û hm towards west-north-wemt through mountainm terrain before ananating in<br />
the plains <strong>of</strong> Punjab.4 The monthly werage discharge data <strong>of</strong> the Bempur stream<br />
gauge site, located near the Hhalagaa, ahow that the water discharge which ia<br />
2000 - 3ûûO c1i8808 during the vinter mcmtha @acember-Febninry) reaches the<br />
peak velue during July when It b more than ten tkes the winter -<strong>of</strong>f.<br />
w u be seen frcm the mdhly average discharge data for the mar 19669 given<br />
in T&ie ï, that while tbe monthly average <strong>of</strong> water dischare;@ valu@ during<br />
wMer months do not vary much from year to year, there are large variati- in<br />
t b e for the anow melting period.<br />
Table 1<br />
MûNIHLY A m WER DBCXAWE SN CUSiES DIFERE3CE; 33 THE VfiUEs<br />
MONPH<br />
196F3<br />
1 %9<br />
OF WATER nmcmìm<br />
1968u1969<br />
JanUary<br />
31 88<br />
2359<br />
829<br />
February<br />
3068<br />
2665 43<br />
Mmh<br />
394<br />
3658<br />
3 O5<br />
d g d<br />
5944-<br />
5063<br />
881<br />
Hay<br />
11 6a3<br />
13868 -2260<br />
June<br />
31 893<br />
4r5892<br />
-1 2999<br />
July<br />
32/62 47081 -14319<br />
Bug;&<br />
2153 2<br />
N63 2<br />
-131<br />
-<br />
00<br />
September 1m<br />
17869<br />
-5592<br />
October 5w<br />
7357<br />
1450<br />
Naoeniber<br />
3760<br />
45@<br />
-788<br />
Decrember<br />
2800<br />
3500<br />
-700
236<br />
-tion <strong>of</strong> the satellite pictures for the above two years showed that BLICUdation<br />
<strong>of</strong> snow aver the western ELimalaya~ OCCW during the maths <strong>of</strong><br />
Novembe-F'ebruary. The snow-malt b- spring i.e., from the m&ha <strong>of</strong><br />
m h when the valleys and river courses start becorning viaible distinctly.<br />
The minimum snow cover ocam in the post-eionsoon period after the nœrth <strong>of</strong><br />
Septeaiber. Figure 1 shows sane <strong>of</strong> the river courses in the aateïïite picture<br />
<strong>of</strong> 9 June 1969 cover- northern and western Himalayas. Examination <strong>of</strong> day to<br />
day satellite Pictures revealed that well sustained precipitation activity mer<br />
the Sutlej basin during the spring and pre-monsoon aeason <strong>of</strong> 1969, cdributed<br />
to higher values <strong>of</strong> water discharges from the month <strong>of</strong> May aL1WBPds. Th basin<br />
was also affected by the recurdng monsoon depressionsin the month <strong>of</strong> September<br />
I969 whereas the year 1968 was marked by the rar3y <strong>with</strong>drawal <strong>of</strong> mmsoon from<br />
the region.'<br />
2.3 Snow cover stdy <strong>of</strong> northern snd western Himalayas conducted by<br />
Srinivasan and Raman (2) <strong>with</strong> the help <strong>of</strong> selected NnIIBLE3 ïV and ESA4<br />
Pictures <strong>of</strong> 1969-70 bas confirmed that accmulatian <strong>of</strong> snow starte from<br />
the month <strong>of</strong> November and reaches the reixhum during Janu;iry-February wilh<br />
snow line generally at 213 l0n.b The snow melt begins in 4ril ad the mlnimimi<br />
snow cover was found to occur ki this stdy in Augmt-October <strong>with</strong> anow line<br />
rising upto about 5 km. The tearporai. sequence <strong>of</strong> aIIMBu9 III Image Diesector<br />
Camera mea (IDCS) pictures <strong>of</strong> Northern ñhiìayas for the period <strong>of</strong> April<br />
196Waaueuy 1970 given in a report <strong>of</strong> NASA an NïMEiiJS (3) dematrates t b<br />
minimum <strong>of</strong> the snow cover aver the &dus river basin in the Himalaya dipring<br />
Augwt-September. The B~QV accmùlaticm mer the area cormences thereafter<br />
till the month <strong>of</strong> Bpril when mdting <strong>of</strong> snow begins.<br />
2.4 maph for the river Brahmputra, rivers originating fmn the<br />
Centrai and W e r n Himalayas do nut have lmg courses along the mountab.<br />
These are therefore not 80 distinctly vieible in satellite *dea a9 the<br />
rivera in northern end western Himalayas. Since the winter precipitatiar over<br />
these regions is much less canpared to northern a<strong>nl</strong> western Hiinalayaa t b<br />
magnitude <strong>of</strong> snw cover difference during the winter and summep semons ie not<br />
significant, especially so over central Hhaiayas. Examinatiosi <strong>of</strong> snow cover<br />
over the valleys in these regions, therefore shows that the height <strong>of</strong> the<br />
snowline is generally between 3.5 -5.0 Kms. The contribution <strong>of</strong> anw-mdt to<br />
the water discharge <strong>of</strong> rivers in these regions e m therefore be expected to<br />
be less than that in the western Himalafraa.'<br />
3. EsTmIDN OF RAINFALL DURmG THE SOUl!ME3T MNSOON SEASON<br />
3.1 In recent pars the satellite iimgeries bave been increasi~gly<br />
used to derive the relatianship Wween the cloud pattelas and the WcipittLtion<br />
distribution over the data sparse areas <strong>of</strong> tropics. In India an early<br />
attempt was made by Hulshrestha and Gupta (4) to st* the rainfall. and oled
patten associated <strong>with</strong> the mansoon depression. The nephandpis prepared by<br />
U.S. Weather Bureau were &tilb& by B-tt (5) to estimate the maithly rainfa<br />
in the Australian Region. The radiation data <strong>of</strong> TïBIS III waa utilised<br />
by &inbird (6) to derive the relatimmkip betuetm the height <strong>of</strong> clorid topa and<br />
precipitation depths. Similar studies for rainfall estimates have elso been<br />
conducted in &her parks <strong>of</strong> the globe.<br />
3.2 Tn order to establish a reasonably valid relation between the<br />
instantaneous eateììite cloud picture and the averxe areal precipitation over<br />
a particular area, it ha~ to be ensured that the particular clouds together <strong>with</strong><br />
their pattern will have an influence an the precipitation which we are trying to<br />
estimate and there will be no other significant development or changes which will<br />
&e our inference invaìid. B is also necessary to avoid atleast at the first<br />
instance local peculiarities like the existence <strong>of</strong> marked features <strong>of</strong> orography,<br />
so that the important factor that influences precipitation over the area is<br />
mostly the clouds and their patterns. As already explaincd at paras 1.4 and<br />
1.5 ahove, we have therefore chosen occasions <strong>of</strong> rainstom o<strong>nl</strong>y during the<br />
monsoon seaon.<br />
3.3 The =A-9 cloud pictures (taken around 0900 Carr) covering our<br />
regimi for the 1969 and 1770 mansoon seasons were examined in conjmction <strong>with</strong><br />
the hrs rainfall record at 0300 GMP <strong>of</strong> next day. This has lad to develop<br />
ment <strong>of</strong> the foilowing relations between cloud characteristics and mera<br />
average precipitation range.<br />
Table 2<br />
S.luo. Cloud cover Organisation and1 Aerial distribu- Probable range <strong>of</strong><br />
or appearance tion <strong>of</strong> rainfa 2L+ hr rainfall in cms.<br />
7. Overcast<br />
2. -ao-<br />
3. Broken to<br />
overcast<br />
4. ao-<br />
5. Scattered<br />
NO organisation<br />
smooth stratiform<br />
appearance.<br />
widespread<br />
ûrganised spiralling<br />
bands, convect ive<br />
appearance.<br />
&+<br />
Convect ive Fairly widebands<br />
spread along<br />
the bands<br />
Mai<strong>nl</strong>y stratiform<br />
<strong>with</strong> embedded bright<br />
convective patches<br />
Fairly widespread<br />
a) convective<br />
appearance<br />
Scattered<br />
b) stratiform scattered<br />
appearance.<br />
1-3 cma<br />
237<br />
7-12 C ~ S<br />
<strong>with</strong> scattered<br />
falls 712 C ~ S<br />
7-12 C ~ S<br />
1-3 cme <strong>with</strong><br />
scattered falls<br />
<strong>of</strong> 6 6 cas.<br />
4-6 c m<br />
1-3 ciü~
238<br />
The probability range <strong>of</strong> 26 hour rainfall given in the abme table are in accordance<br />
<strong>with</strong> the criteria followed k? the Mia Meteorological Department to<br />
define the rainfall oharacteristics as moderate, rather heavy, heavy wd very<br />
heavy <strong>with</strong> precipitation ~IIIOUWLS k? the range <strong>of</strong> 1-3, &6, 7-12 and more than<br />
12 cms respectively. I3 will be seen from the taDie that while the organised<br />
convective clod bands can cause the rainstonas, the stratiform clou3s give<br />
widespread moderate rains .<br />
3.4 M a r a Aypm et al (7) Sttdied two rainStroma which 00curr.d<br />
during the south-west mcmaoon season <strong>of</strong> 1970. One <strong>of</strong> these waa over the<br />
eastern ottar Pradesh and was <strong>of</strong> two day8 duration i.e. 14-15 September. Tt<br />
caused floods in the River Ganges and its tribuLaries. The other rainstorm<br />
atxurred an 5-7 September 190 and cawed severe flocrds in the Nmda basin.<br />
Abbi et ai also studied (8) the I&- storm. These rainstom were aastxfated<br />
<strong>with</strong> well marked monsoon depressions, fn the fomer case the depression w m<br />
more or less dation- wer the area during these two dap before recurving ki<br />
a northerly direction. The later depression followed a track which was aïmg<br />
the river basin, The ESSA-9 Satellite pictures correspondhg to rainstmms<br />
recorded on the above dates am shown at f- 2 to 6.<br />
3.5 The fht step in the process <strong>of</strong> estimation <strong>of</strong> 24. hour rainfell<br />
mer any partbular area ia an &hatian <strong>of</strong> the relative wupied by<br />
differed typa <strong>of</strong> clomis, mhly brlgkt commative and i3ttratifonn. For thie<br />
p ~ o san e overlay consisting <strong>of</strong> a fine mesh grid was prepared. By placing<br />
this mer the clod pictures and couabhg the nmber <strong>of</strong> squi3.e~ occupied by the<br />
&ove types <strong>of</strong> CloudEl ia the overall area under consideration, the relative<br />
areas occupied by different typa <strong>of</strong> clouds were obtained. These relative<br />
areas were muïtiplled by a factor <strong>of</strong> 10 in the caere <strong>of</strong> bright convective and<br />
by 0 in the case <strong>of</strong> stratiform. Tbe total number thus Mved for the area<br />
der consideration represents the average 2&hr rainfall over the area.<br />
Estimates <strong>of</strong> 24. hr. rainfail derived from satellite cloud pictures<br />
and corresponding values obtained from isohyetal anaiysis <strong>of</strong> actual rainfail<br />
recorded are given bdw at Tables 3 and 4.<br />
Date <strong>of</strong><br />
satellite<br />
picture<br />
13-6-70<br />
1&%70<br />
Table 3<br />
Bright Stratiform<br />
cìouä type cio&<br />
coverage coverage<br />
Dtiniated -rial Precipitation<br />
average 24. hour in cms an tim<br />
rainfa in cms basis <strong>of</strong> is<strong>of</strong>or<br />
1,8O,ooO sq.hs hyetal maw<br />
for 1,4D,ooO eq.<br />
a$<br />
8%<br />
rsra<br />
75%<br />
43 5mo& = 50.9<br />
100<br />
-0<br />
L.0<br />
7 05
Table 4<br />
239<br />
Date <strong>of</strong> Total Bright Stratiform &sthated aerial Precipitaticm in<br />
satellite cloid cioud type COVB- average 24. hoar cmie on the besi8<br />
Pictun, aoverage ccmer.!ì%e rage, rainfall in cm <strong>of</strong> isokyetal mapa<br />
for 2,30,0ClOaq.Kmc1 for 2,00,000<br />
sq. Elms,<br />
4-Cp70 33% 2s %<br />
5-9-70 93%<br />
6-9-70 65%<br />
75% 15%<br />
Z3QMZZ= 100 2.9 483<br />
389[10*27112 100 4.3<br />
3s Bi can be seen from the above table that the average aerid rain-<br />
fall estimiatea from the satallite cloud pf.ctms apee fairly well <strong>with</strong> the<br />
precipitatia depth8 b@ed 011 isohyetal anSlyeiaJ The value6 esthter3 in the<br />
case <strong>of</strong> rainstrom over Utta Pradesh are hadever found on the higher e2de where-<br />
as estimates in cae <strong>of</strong> Narmeda basin ~zle lai=,' Thia will sugg8st that the<br />
multiplloation factors appïieä for esthatuig the & hr rainfall. will differ<br />
from catchment to catchment,' Thia ie understandable because local factors<br />
pïey an import& roli in the amount <strong>of</strong> precipita'cion that c m actuall;g be<br />
redised from a particular type <strong>of</strong> cloud.<br />
While the resdts indicate that thi8 approach is prOimiahg we have yet<br />
to establish by applying the above criteria to many more s fma th& the fac-<br />
tors are valid,'<br />
4. CûNCLUS1DMS<br />
This preliminary study has shown that Satellite cloud pictures can<br />
be utilised for estimating the 2+hr rainfall which can be utilised for<br />
arriving at atleast preliminary estimate <strong>of</strong> river discharge for initial<br />
decision making in flood foreoasting.<br />
cloud pictures @trimI reasonable estimates <strong>of</strong> smw cover and snow line for<br />
utiilisation in t h esti.mates <strong>of</strong> snow-melt contribution to river<br />
dia charge ,<br />
8.0<br />
337<br />
It is also encouraging that satellite
240<br />
1, -ta, M.G, and Abbi, S.D.S(l9"l). ABsessmmt <strong>of</strong> water flow in<br />
river Sutlej by Satellite Pictures, Vayu kdal, V0l.l No.3,<br />
1 13-1 17.<br />
2.1 Srhivasan, U and Fiaman,S. (1 972). Satellite Pictures in the<br />
etudy <strong>of</strong> sntm hydrology mer Western Himalayas, Indian ~ J.bt.<br />
&phSeiCs., vo1.23 No.3, Pp.335-3.44e<br />
3, The beet <strong>of</strong> Nimbus (1 VI) %P. Prepared for W4, Goddard<br />
Space Flight Center, lularyland, contract No. NAS 5-10343<br />
u Kubhreetha, S.M. and Gupta, M.G. (1 964). SataUite &My <strong>of</strong><br />
an in&&wnsoon depression, Indian J .Met .Geoph'rs. , Vol.15,No0.2,<br />
pp. 175-182.<br />
5. Barrett, &C(1%0). The estimation <strong>of</strong> monthïy rainfail from<br />
satellite data, Mon.üeath.Rev., Vol.%, No.4, pp.322-327,<br />
6. Rainbird, A.F. (1 969). Some poterrtial amlicatiane <strong>of</strong> meteorological<br />
satellites in flood forecasting, Hydrological Forecasting,<br />
W.M,O. Tech. Note No.92, pp.73-80.'<br />
7;Harihara mar, P.S., Abbi, S.D.S. and Hem ñaj (1971)<br />
Rainfall and floods during 1970 southwest monsoon period,<br />
mdim J,M&.GeO&yS., Vol228 k.1, m.141-1@<br />
8. Abbi, S.D.S et al (1972). RainfaU study <strong>of</strong> the unprecidented<br />
fïoods <strong>of</strong> September 1970 in the Marmaäa basin, Mekeomlcytical<br />
Monograph, Hydrolowfio,-2/1 972,
FIGURE-1<br />
ESSA-9 PICTURE OF JUNE9,1969 SHOWS THE 5NOW<br />
COVERED MOUNTAIN RANGES OF NORTHERN AND<br />
WESTERN HIMALAYAS. DUE TO THE MELTING 8F SNOW<br />
FROM THE LOWER VALCEYSj MANY RIVER COURSES<br />
ARE VISIBLE IN THE PICTURE.<br />
241
24 2<br />
F IGURE-2<br />
ESSA-9 PICTURE OF SEPTEMBER 4,1969. AREA<br />
CONSIDERED FOR ESTIMATION OF AERIAL 24-<br />
HOUR RAINFALL IS SHOWN BY BLACK LINE.
FIGURE -3<br />
ESSA-9 PICTURE OF SEPTEMBER 5,1969. AREA<br />
CONSIDERED FOR ESTIMATION OF AERIAL 24-<br />
HOUR RAINFALL IS SHOWN BY BLACK LINE.<br />
243
244<br />
FIGURE - 4<br />
ESSA-9 PICTURE OF SEPTEMBER 6,1969. AREA<br />
CONSIDERED FOR ESTIMATION OF AERIAL 24-<br />
HOUR RAINFALL IS SHOWN BY BLACK LINE.
FIGURE- 5<br />
ESSA-9 PICTURE OF SEPTEMBER 13, 1969. AREA<br />
CONSIDERED FOR ESTIMATION OF AERIAL 24-<br />
HOUR RAINFALL IS SHOWN BY BLACK LINE.<br />
245
24 6<br />
FIGURE - 6<br />
ESSA-9 PICTURE OF SEPTEMBER 14, 1969.<br />
AREA CONSIDERED FOR ESTIMATION OF<br />
AERIAL 24-HOUR RAINFALL 15 SHOWN BY<br />
BLACK LINE.
THE USE OF SIMULATION TECHNIQUES, ESPECIALLY DESIGNED FOR<br />
DATA-SCARCE AREAS STATISTICAL METHODS AND DATA OPERATIONS<br />
Introduction<br />
General Report<br />
by<br />
Ivan C. James, II<br />
U.S. Geological Survey<br />
Simulation is not new to the field <strong>of</strong> water resources<br />
system design. The mass-curve analysis devised by W. Rippl<br />
ninety years ago continues in use as a graphical-simulation<br />
methodology for reservoir sizing. Allen Hazen made a lasting<br />
contribution to reservoir design techniques sixty years ago by<br />
introducing the concept <strong>of</strong> a probability distribution <strong>of</strong> annual<br />
<strong>with</strong>in-year storage requirements. Following this, there were<br />
few substantial changes in water resources design techniques<br />
until the potential <strong>of</strong> the synthesis <strong>of</strong> operations research,<br />
and the then newly developing digital computers were recognizea<br />
in water resources planning and design. Within this last twenty<br />
years following this synthesis there has been an explosion in<br />
the size and number <strong>of</strong> directions <strong>of</strong> water resources research.<br />
Simulation has continued to be a widely used planning and<br />
design tool. The advent <strong>of</strong> high level programming languages<br />
and the continuing increases in processing rates <strong>with</strong> each new<br />
computer'generation has made it feasible to simulate systems <strong>of</strong><br />
an incredible complexity. Simulations have been performed to<br />
test the responses <strong>of</strong> large scale river basin developments,<br />
salinity control projects, aquifers, estuaries, and stream-<br />
aquifer systems to changes in design and operating variables,<br />
just to name a few applications. Current efforts to simulate<br />
world-wide weather systems will dwarf these aforementioned<br />
simulation studies in terms <strong>of</strong> computations and data require-<br />
ments.<br />
Indeed, maybe we should stop to question this growth in<br />
comp1exit.y <strong>of</strong> simulation models. Have the requirements <strong>of</strong> our<br />
models outstripped the growth <strong>of</strong> our data base? Has the ability<br />
to build complexity and "realism" into our model$ exceeded our<br />
ability to interpret the results and make useful decisions from<br />
them? The answers to these questions depend upon one's objec-<br />
tive framework. I would argue that from the viewpoint Of economic<br />
efficiency, the first question presents a well posed, though not<br />
necessarily mathematically trivial problem. Some <strong>of</strong> the papers<br />
<strong>of</strong> this very symposium are providing encouraging, though somewhat<br />
limited, results on the question <strong>of</strong> optimal amounts <strong>of</strong> informa-<br />
tion for decision problems. The second question has much less<br />
<strong>of</strong> an analytical foundation. Marginal benefits from increasing<br />
the complexity <strong>of</strong> a model cannot be estimated if it is not known<br />
that the increase in complexity is converging to the "true<br />
nature" <strong>of</strong> the process being modeled. Perspective on this point<br />
might be increased by recalling the title <strong>of</strong> Tocher's book,<br />
The Art <strong>of</strong> Simulation. U<strong>nl</strong>ess the field <strong>of</strong> general systems theory<br />
develops some applied branches, the construction and evaluation<br />
<strong>of</strong> simulation mdoels will remain an art.
248<br />
Large scale rivex bssin simulation models require hydrologic<br />
input traces at many points. Additionally, there may also be<br />
requirements for other hydro-metrological input traces such as<br />
temperature, salinity, precipitation, solar insolation, and wind<br />
speed. In order for the response <strong>of</strong> the simulation model to be<br />
similar to that <strong>of</strong> the real system, generated input traces must<br />
maintain statistical relationships among themselves as are found<br />
in the natural data.<br />
Long complete natural records would be ideal, but are not<br />
<strong>of</strong>ten available. In the more typical case there is a mixture<br />
<strong>of</strong> record lengths and record quality, and not unusually the<br />
entire absence <strong>of</strong> a needed record. Even where all records cover<br />
a concurrent base period, the realization <strong>of</strong> the process during<br />
that period may exhibit such a pathologically singular behavior<br />
that a deterministic design using those data would be unwise.<br />
The problem, then, is to go from short records <strong>of</strong> varying<br />
lengths to long records. In doing so, one must establish a<br />
criterion for comparison among alternative techniques for infill-<br />
ing and generation <strong>of</strong> records. Philosophically we might use as<br />
a criteria the requirement that the decisions that are based on<br />
the simulation be the same as if long ,natural records were avail-<br />
able. This criterion is not measurable and hence the usually<br />
accepted proxy ha y/b5?n3jhe maintenance <strong>of</strong> low order moments<br />
and correlations.- - - More recently it has been suggested<br />
that other statistics might be pertinent to some design situa-<br />
tions.41 ?/ 61 :/ The nurst coefficient is one <strong>of</strong> these which<br />
may have importance for the design <strong>of</strong> long term storage carry-<br />
overs .g/<br />
There are a large number <strong>of</strong> uncertainties to be considered<br />
in the planning and design process. Uncertainties <strong>of</strong> the future,<br />
such as population, demand, technology, personal preferences,<br />
political choice, and hydrologic outcome plague us. As hydrolo-<br />
gists, we have tended to concentrate upon this latter source <strong>of</strong><br />
uncertainty <strong>with</strong>out a good perspective <strong>of</strong> our limited input<br />
into the total decision making process. Even in dealing <strong>with</strong>in<br />
our domain <strong>of</strong> hydrologic uncertainty, we can further subdivide<br />
this into the inherent stochastic uncertainty <strong>of</strong> the future<br />
events and our misspecification error in modeling the process.<br />
Making optimal decisions in the face <strong>of</strong> the inherent<br />
stochastic nature <strong>of</strong> the process is the justification for our<br />
detailed analysis and study <strong>of</strong> these processes; however, there<br />
are numerous opportunities for the introduction <strong>of</strong> the misspeci-<br />
fication error in this process. Let us list a few:
1.<br />
2.<br />
3.<br />
4.<br />
Failure <strong>of</strong> the simulation (design) model to capture<br />
the relevant characteristics <strong>of</strong> the real-world system.<br />
Failure <strong>of</strong> the decision process to optimize the objec-<br />
tive.<br />
Selection <strong>of</strong> an inappropriate or incorrect model for<br />
generating the input to the simulation.<br />
Sampling errors for the parameters <strong>of</strong> the flow<br />
generating models.<br />
The papers <strong>of</strong> this session must be evaluated primarily <strong>with</strong><br />
respect to these last two sources <strong>of</strong> error. The other sources<br />
<strong>of</strong> uncertainty should still be kept in mind.<br />
Review and Summary <strong>of</strong> Papers<br />
S. H. Charania Extension <strong>of</strong> Run<strong>of</strong>f Records for Small Catchments<br />
in Semi-arid Regions.<br />
249<br />
The Thomas-Fiering model is used for generation <strong>of</strong> synthetic<br />
monthly streamflow traces for two small catchments, one the<br />
Wakefield River in Australia, and the other the Kongoni River<br />
in Kenya. Transforms are applied to the streamflow data until<br />
the resulting values are approximately normally distributed.<br />
For the Wakefield River, the transform is the log <strong>of</strong> the square<br />
root <strong>of</strong> the flow.<br />
The generation <strong>of</strong> normally distributed random number6 is<br />
accomplished by a rather unusual technique. The area under the<br />
normal distribution is divided into 100 equal sub-areas by ver-<br />
tical lines. The average distances to each <strong>of</strong> these two bound-<br />
aries on each sub-area are tabulated for selection by use <strong>of</strong> the<br />
computer generated uniformly distributed random number. More<br />
commo<strong>nl</strong>y used methods include averaging a number <strong>of</strong> uniformly<br />
distributed random numbers to approximate normalcy, or normaliz-<br />
ing transforms such as the sine-cosine and Haddamard matrix<br />
transformations.<br />
Statistics <strong>of</strong> generated flows are checked. On the two<br />
streams tested, 23 <strong>of</strong> the 24 monthly means and 19 <strong>of</strong> the 24<br />
monthly standard deviations <strong>of</strong> the generated data fall <strong>with</strong>in<br />
the 95% confidence intervals. Skewness and kurtosis are appar-<br />
ently less weìl preserved.
250<br />
M. J. Ilamlin and N. T. Kotteyoda The Preparation OZ a Data Set<br />
for Hydrologic System Analysis<br />
Development <strong>of</strong> the water resources <strong>of</strong> the Wye and Severn<br />
River basins required a large scale simulation model. Genera-<br />
tion <strong>of</strong> input data for the simulation model was difficult due<br />
to widely varying record lengths and the necessity <strong>of</strong> adjusting<br />
records from the gaging site to the sites <strong>of</strong> potential interest.<br />
Additionally, it was felt necessary to generate daily flows.<br />
This was accomplished by first generating five day average flows<br />
and then disaggregating this into the five daily flows which<br />
would approximately maintain the relevant statistics.<br />
Development <strong>of</strong> records for the base period required:<br />
1.<br />
2.<br />
3.<br />
4.<br />
5.<br />
6.<br />
adjustments to natural conditions <strong>of</strong> regulated<br />
records.<br />
adjustments <strong>of</strong> short records to a base period.<br />
adjustments to another point on a stream based on<br />
drainage area and effective rainfall ratios.<br />
combinations <strong>of</strong> the above methods.<br />
construction <strong>of</strong> entire records at ungaged sites based<br />
on drainage and effective rainfall ratios applied to<br />
nearby streams. (Note: No stochastic component<br />
was added.)<br />
construction <strong>of</strong> records by summing lagged upstream<br />
records and making the usual ratio adjustments.<br />
(Note: No attenuation was used.)<br />
These adjusted base period records consisted <strong>of</strong> a long sequence<br />
<strong>of</strong> pentad (5-day average) data at all points <strong>of</strong> interest.<br />
All extensions <strong>of</strong> records to the base period are based<br />
upon a bivariate synthesis using one <strong>of</strong> the two long term sta-<br />
tions as the independent variable. The model is designed to<br />
maintain the seasonal means and standard deviations and the<br />
serial and cross correlation coefficients. It might be noted<br />
that this method does not maintain cross correlations between<br />
sets <strong>of</strong> extended records. For a simple example, note what<br />
happend when two stations X and Y are extended based on a<br />
station 2. Without loss <strong>of</strong> generality let all means be zero<br />
and all variances unity. Then:
Y = p 2 4. (1 - P&) l/Z 6<br />
Y=<br />
where E, 6, are NIID(0,l). The cross correlation between X and<br />
Y is then:<br />
The cross correlations generated by the authors is represented<br />
by the first term on the right hand side, while the physically<br />
possible values are defined by the equation for all -1 p 6 5 ~ 1.<br />
I doubt that the last word is in on the data infilling question,<br />
but the method <strong>of</strong> Crosby and Maddock?/ looks promising.<br />
251<br />
A nbmber <strong>of</strong> other ad-hoc procedures were used to maintain<br />
certain characteristics. The higher correlation <strong>of</strong> lowflows<br />
was approximated by selecting a threshold value below which the<br />
correlation was increased. Crossing properties were maintained<br />
by adjustment <strong>of</strong> the skew coefficient to higher values than<br />
found in the historical data. Daily data was obtained by<br />
interpolation and noise addition on the pentad data.<br />
The authors propose generating synthetic records by first<br />
generating records for the two major long term stations and<br />
then infilling the other records using the base period statis-<br />
tics.<br />
Roberto L. Lenton and John C. Schaake, Jr. Potential Application<br />
<strong>of</strong> Bayesian Techniques for Parameter Estimation <strong>with</strong> Limited Data<br />
The authors review the use <strong>of</strong> Bayesian techniques for parameter<br />
estimation. Bayes theorem is a formalism for incorporating a prior<br />
probability distribution <strong>with</strong> sample information to achieve a posterior<br />
probability distribution which gives appropriate weights to<br />
both the prior and sample information. Prior distributions aan üe<br />
constructed from subjective judgments, information transfer, or<br />
a combination <strong>of</strong> these.<br />
Bayesian decision making requirea the selection <strong>of</strong> an action<br />
such that the expected loss <strong>of</strong> utility is minimized. Thus, loss<br />
functions must be constructed for the parameters <strong>with</strong> probability<br />
distributions.<br />
An example <strong>of</strong> reservoir sizing using u first-order autore-<br />
gressive model is given. A beta distribution was fitted to serial<br />
correlations ùerived from 140 rivera <strong>of</strong> the world. Diffuse prior
252<br />
probability distributions were assumed for the two parameters whici<br />
contained information on the first two moments <strong>of</strong> flow. The Bayes<br />
estimator is compared to maximun likelihood estimators for several<br />
sample record lengths under an assumed quadratic loss function.<br />
As Bayesian techniques come into more use in hydraulic design<br />
there seem to be some remaining questions <strong>of</strong> the method <strong>of</strong> their<br />
use. Selecting a data base prior as the authors did should con-<br />
sider more <strong>of</strong> the physical makeup <strong>of</strong> the basin because invariably<br />
the size, shape, and geology should tell one that there is more<br />
to be known about the basin correlation structure than that given<br />
by the worldwide distribution. If working in a smaller region,<br />
one must also consider that his sample and the data upon which<br />
the prior was based suffer from similar time sampling biases due<br />
to interstation correlation.<br />
M. E. Moss and D. R. Dawdy Stochastic Simulation for Basins<br />
<strong>with</strong> Short or no Records <strong>of</strong> Streamflow<br />
The authors show the application <strong>of</strong> a first-order auto-<br />
regressive-moving-average (ARMA) model to the generation <strong>of</strong><br />
streamflow record for reservoir design. The method is partic-<br />
ularly applicable where no records exist, but regioiial rela-<br />
tionships can define the mean5 and variances <strong>of</strong> monthly flow,<br />
and the means and variances <strong>of</strong> monthly effective basin precip-<br />
itation. The mean design size as determined by the use <strong>of</strong> the<br />
sequent-peak algorithm on fifty synthetic records <strong>of</strong> 58 years<br />
length is found to be essentially the same as that determined<br />
from the historical record <strong>of</strong> the same length.<br />
The paper also demonstrates an example <strong>of</strong> a seemingly<br />
growing area <strong>of</strong> research in hydrologic model building. This<br />
area is characterized by a synthesis <strong>of</strong> ideas from determinis-<br />
tic model builders on how the components <strong>of</strong> a basin's hydrol-<br />
ogy should operate <strong>with</strong> stochastic modeling techniques. Note<br />
how the assumption that the basin releases base flow as a<br />
linear reservoir allows for the model parameters t.> be estimated<br />
as functions <strong>of</strong> precipitation parameters.<br />
One difficulty in using the model comes from its requirement<br />
for means and variances <strong>of</strong> effective monthly basin precipitation.<br />
These data are not among the commo<strong>nl</strong>y available weather records.<br />
Mean and variance <strong>of</strong> total monthly point precipitation are, or<br />
could be, mapped for many reqions; however, the reduction <strong>of</strong><br />
these values to the model input parameters would require adjust-<br />
ments for basin size and probably also basin shape and orienta-<br />
tion <strong>with</strong> predominant st.orm paths. This obstacle could be<br />
economically surmounted if the model was to be used extensively<br />
in one region.
T. A. McMahen and R. G. Xein Storage Yield Estimated <strong>with</strong><br />
<strong>Inadequate</strong> Streamflow Data<br />
A seventeen year streamflow record is extended using a<br />
modified Boughton rainfall-run<strong>of</strong>f model and an 84 year daily<br />
rainfall record. Gould's stochastic model is applied to the<br />
extended record to determine storage requirements.<br />
Boughton's model is similar to several other rainfall-<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f models, being <strong>of</strong> the conceptual-component type. Infil-<br />
tration, evapotranspiration, surface run<strong>of</strong>f and groundwater<br />
components are computed as functions <strong>of</strong> storage in the three<br />
conceptual zones <strong>of</strong> interception storage, uppersoil storage and<br />
lower soil storage. The lower soil storage zone is subdivided<br />
into two subzones, each <strong>with</strong> baseflow discharges to obtain a<br />
base flow <strong>with</strong> a double recession constant. The nine model<br />
parameters are estimated by a standard function minimization<br />
procedure using the split sample technique such that one-half<br />
<strong>of</strong> the rscord is used for calibration and the other one-half<br />
for estimation <strong>of</strong> the fitting error. The criterion to be<br />
minimized in the calibration procedure is not stated.<br />
The relative information content is checked to show that<br />
there is a gain <strong>of</strong> information about the mean due to the exten-<br />
sion. It would seem that storage requirements are also sensi-<br />
tive to the variance and serial correlation. The information<br />
content <strong>of</strong> these statistics were apparently not checked.<br />
253<br />
Reservoir capacity for 50% and 90% drafts <strong>with</strong> 5% chance<br />
<strong>of</strong> failure were made <strong>with</strong> Gould'c stochastic storage model.<br />
A comparison <strong>of</strong> these results <strong>with</strong> those obtained by behavioral<br />
analysis (reservoir routing) <strong>of</strong> the synthesized flow record<br />
gives similar results at the 50% level <strong>of</strong> development <strong>with</strong>out<br />
correction for the effect <strong>of</strong> serial correlation, but a much<br />
smaller storage requirement for the Gould model (30% <strong>of</strong> behav-<br />
ioral value) at the 90% level <strong>of</strong> development. Correcting the<br />
Gould model for serial correlation increases the storage require-<br />
ment to 86% <strong>of</strong> the behavioral value.<br />
The authors attribute the remaining discrepancy to being<br />
beyond the range <strong>of</strong> the serial correlation correction procedure.<br />
At such a high level <strong>of</strong> development, some hydrologists might<br />
argue for models <strong>with</strong> higher persistence than the lag-one<br />
Markov model.
254<br />
Pedro Porras G. and Alfredo Flores E. Stochastic Application in<br />
Ungaged Basins for Planning Purposes<br />
<strong>Water</strong> resources planning is described as being dynamic.<br />
Feedback from each iteration can be used to define requirements<br />
for more detailed information. The first version <strong>of</strong> the National<br />
Plan <strong>of</strong> Development <strong>of</strong> <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> required an inventory <strong>of</strong><br />
surface run<strong>of</strong>f. The approach for the second version <strong>of</strong> the plan<br />
was stymied due to inadequate data, hence the application <strong>of</strong><br />
stochastic methods were tried.<br />
In designing these methods, several generalizations from<br />
the data were helpful. Some <strong>of</strong> the physiographic factors affect-<br />
ing precipitation were more influential on rainfall quantity;<br />
others were more influential in affecting the distribution <strong>of</strong><br />
precipitation throughout the year. Ratios <strong>of</strong> monthly to annual<br />
precipitation were <strong>of</strong>ten similar in different zones. Data<br />
deficiencies made the construction <strong>of</strong> monthly isohyetal maps<br />
a difficult task.<br />
All data were reduced to percent <strong>of</strong> the 10-year average at<br />
that station and grouped into four sets each <strong>with</strong> a 500 mm/yr.<br />
range in average precipitation. It was found in low rainfall<br />
areas that the variance increased <strong>with</strong> the mean rainfall, while<br />
there was no relationship at high rainfalls. In either case<br />
the Gumbel distribution was found to fit the data best.<br />
When the data were rescaled to common minimum and maximum<br />
values for the 10-year historical record, it was found that the<br />
cumulative marginal distributions were essentially the same.<br />
Thus monthly rainfall at ungaged sites was generated by use <strong>of</strong><br />
a transition process and rescaling <strong>with</strong> the 12 sets <strong>of</strong> maps <strong>of</strong><br />
monthly maximum and minimum values and map <strong>of</strong> average rainfall.<br />
For a given precipitation, the marginal distribution <strong>of</strong> evapo-<br />
transpiration was found to be normal. This provided a mechanism<br />
for generating irrigation requirements from the generated rain-<br />
fall. A two parameter model was used to compute monthly run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
from monthly rainfall. A computer program was written to carry<br />
out these computations for 2 minute-<strong>of</strong>-angle grid points on<br />
the maps.<br />
One point to which the authors may want to address some <strong>of</strong><br />
their comments is the use to which their results will be applied.<br />
The procedure they have described generates results indepen-<br />
dently at neighboring grid points. Thus some possibly important<br />
properties <strong>of</strong> the generated irrigation requirements such as the<br />
covariance among the grid points in a region are lost. This<br />
information may be <strong>of</strong> considerable importance when estimating<br />
the distribution <strong>of</strong> regional water demands.
Marcel Roche Standardization and Interpolation <strong>of</strong> Data for a<br />
Simulation Model<br />
255<br />
The author finds that it is necessary to review and<br />
recompute all records when constructing a base period set <strong>of</strong><br />
data for input to a sìmulation model. This involves obtain-<br />
ing the original gage-heights and applying the rechecked shift<br />
and datum corrections. Inspection <strong>of</strong> discharge rating curves<br />
and hydrograph cumparison <strong>with</strong> nearby stations provide addi-<br />
tional subjective checks on the quality <strong>of</strong> the records. Examples<br />
<strong>of</strong> substantial errors have been found using these methods.<br />
<strong>Water</strong> quality computations also require checking, although<br />
<strong>of</strong> a different nature. Often one must combine records derived<br />
from conductivity measurements as well as partial and complete<br />
chemical analyses. Precipitation records should be checked by<br />
double mass curve analysis for any systematic errors. Original<br />
records should be checked for random transcription errors.<br />
These operations are necessary to obtain monthly values <strong>of</strong><br />
these parameters for the period <strong>of</strong> record.<br />
The extension <strong>of</strong> these records to cover the base period may<br />
be accomplished hy using regression analysis. To preserve the<br />
variance, a random component must be added back onto the regres-<br />
sion estimate. This process, however, can produce negative<br />
flows and other problems. The author suggests instead estab-<br />
lishing a line <strong>of</strong> relation through the origin <strong>of</strong> the form y = Ax<br />
such that the variance is preserved.<br />
For some basins it is possible to improve the prediction<br />
<strong>of</strong> the missing data by including an index <strong>of</strong> local rainfall as<br />
a factor in the multiple regression. An intuitively reasonable<br />
rainfall index is a weighted sum <strong>of</strong> previous rainfall amounts<br />
where the weights decrease in some geometric progression <strong>with</strong><br />
time since the event.<br />
Variances <strong>of</strong> estimated salinities are preserved by empir-<br />
ically estimating the marginal distribution <strong>of</strong> salinities for a<br />
number <strong>of</strong> flow classes, and generating from the marginal distri-<br />
bution appropriate to the flow class.<br />
Finally, the problems <strong>of</strong> adjusting records from points <strong>of</strong><br />
collection to point <strong>of</strong> need, such as Hamlin and Kottegoda faced,<br />
must be solved. This is complicated by the necessity <strong>of</strong> main-<br />
taining an additional continuity relationship for the total<br />
dissolved load.
256<br />
Several <strong>of</strong> the pgints that the author brings up deserve<br />
some discussion. In the U.S., the annual computations <strong>of</strong> surface<br />
water records are rechecked and compiled after a five year accum-<br />
ulation. Thereafter it would be unusual to recover any remain-<br />
ing errors. Statistical interpretation <strong>of</strong> historical water-<br />
quality records in the U.S. has sometimes been difficult because<br />
the chemical analyses were done on composited samples. The exist-<br />
ence <strong>of</strong> several methods <strong>of</strong> compositing added to this difficulty.<br />
Have the hydrological services <strong>of</strong> other countries had this<br />
problem? The autiior admits to the inelegance <strong>of</strong> his practical<br />
techniques for maintaining variance, but one might also wonder<br />
if other unmaintained parameters such as the covariance prop-<br />
erties might be important to the decisions resulting from the<br />
simulation model.<br />
H. D. Charma, A. P. Bhattacharya, and S. R. Jindal The use <strong>of</strong><br />
Simulation Techniques for Sequential Generation <strong>of</strong> Short-Sized<br />
Rainfall Data and-its Application in the Estimation <strong>of</strong> <strong>Design</strong><br />
Flood<br />
The authors attack the problem <strong>of</strong>, synthetic generation <strong>of</strong><br />
the 6 one-hourly rainfall values for the maximum annual storms.<br />
These were then used for computing flood peaks which would<br />
presumably include worse conditions in the catchment than those<br />
experienced in the typically 10-20 years <strong>of</strong> record available.<br />
The historical data used were the 6-hour annual storms recorded<br />
at New Delhi in the 1956-1965 period.<br />
The rainfalls <strong>of</strong> an annual storm are assumed to result from<br />
an autoregressive process <strong>of</strong> the form:<br />
Xt = r<br />
+ t,t-1 Xt-l<br />
This model was used on the 10 years <strong>of</strong> data shown in table I to<br />
obtain the statistics shown in table II. Unfortunately, an<br />
error, possibly in programming, seems to occur in the generating<br />
model such that the process takes the form:<br />
X = E (E generated from a uniform distribution)<br />
1 1<br />
and<br />
- X = X t + r l < t L 6<br />
t,t-1 Xt-l<br />
hence, the o<strong>nl</strong>y variation <strong>of</strong> the hourly rainfall increments is<br />
introduced by way <strong>of</strong> El and the variance <strong>of</strong> any hourly increment<br />
is then:<br />
Et
where r<br />
1,Q<br />
E l<br />
and the variance <strong>of</strong> the total storm rainfall is<br />
This gives a variance <strong>of</strong> the totals <strong>of</strong> annual storms <strong>of</strong> about<br />
37 compared to the sample variance in the historical data <strong>of</strong><br />
about 430. This would seem a sufficient reason for the dis-<br />
crepancies between the historical and generated data shown in<br />
figures 2 and 3.<br />
Perhaps the authors could respond to the questions:<br />
1. Why was a uniform distribution selection for E ?<br />
1<br />
2. Why was no random component added on to each hourly<br />
value, independent <strong>of</strong> the other hourly values?<br />
J. H. Visser The Use <strong>of</strong> Stochastic Models in a Hydro-Agricul-<br />
tura1 Development Project in Lebanon<br />
257<br />
Consistent monthly temperature, rainfall, and streamfiow<br />
data were needed for a model used to simulate the operation <strong>of</strong><br />
an irrigation project. The purpose <strong>of</strong> the simulation model was<br />
to provide an economic evaluation <strong>of</strong> the project and a design<br />
sizing <strong>of</strong> the reservoir.<br />
The historical data consisted <strong>of</strong> several 30-year rainfall<br />
records, some 15 year temperature series, two 14-year and 13<br />
three-to-five-year streamflow series.<br />
The data generating mechanism has several features peculiar<br />
to the length <strong>of</strong> record and type <strong>of</strong> data being generated. Square<br />
root <strong>of</strong> precipitation and log <strong>of</strong> discharge were the transforma-<br />
tions chosen to approximately normalize the distribution <strong>of</strong><br />
these data. Strong annual but weak monthly correlations between<br />
precipitation and streamflow led the authors to the following<br />
method <strong>of</strong> monthly streamflow generation. Annual streamflows<br />
were first generated based on a regression <strong>with</strong> annual precipi-<br />
tation. An autocorrelated series <strong>of</strong> monthly flows is then
258<br />
generated and adjusted so that its sum is eque1 to Lhe previously<br />
generated annual flow. Temperatures are generated to maintain<br />
their serial correlation and a cross correlation <strong>with</strong> precipita-<br />
tion.<br />
For the short streamflow records, not enough data were<br />
available for estimation <strong>of</strong> the mean, variance, serial anã cross<br />
cross correlations for each calendar month. The monthly means<br />
were removed and this series extended on the basis <strong>of</strong> oqe <strong>of</strong><br />
the long term flow records which had been similarly transformed.<br />
J. R. Wallis and N. C. Matalas Relative Importance <strong>of</strong> Decision<br />
Variables in Flood Frequency Analysis<br />
The authors present interim results <strong>of</strong> a Monte Carlo simu-<br />
lation <strong>of</strong> the process <strong>of</strong> fitting flood frequency curves to data<br />
generated from known distributions. The ultimate objective,^ <strong>of</strong><br />
the study is the development <strong>of</strong> strategies for optimal selection<br />
<strong>of</strong> flood frequency analysis techniques given the loss function,<br />
length <strong>of</strong> record, sample flood statistics, and a prior distri-<br />
bution over possible frequency distributions for floods.<br />
The results presented by the authors are the probabilities<br />
<strong>of</strong> best fit <strong>of</strong> either the normal, log-normal, or Gumbel dis-<br />
tribution to data generated in every point in the experimental<br />
hyperspace:<br />
distribution: normal, Gumbel;/S;gTmal <strong>with</strong><br />
skew = 1/4, 1/2, 1, 1.14, 2, 2<br />
record length : 10, 30, SO, 70, 90 years<br />
plotting position: Weibull, Hazen<br />
fitting criteria: minimum sum <strong>of</strong> squares, minimum sum <strong>of</strong><br />
absolute deviations<br />
It should be noted here that probability <strong>of</strong> best fit is a measure<br />
<strong>of</strong> the flexibility <strong>of</strong> a distribution in fitting a set <strong>of</strong> data and<br />
gives neither a connotation <strong>of</strong> better fit to the distribution<br />
that generated the data nor any measure <strong>of</strong> how well the fitted<br />
distribution estimates the T-year flood.<br />
A quick glance at the results allows for some possibly<br />
interesting interpretations. The maximum probability <strong>of</strong> select-<br />
ing the correct distribution where the real world is normal<br />
comes from the use <strong>of</strong> the Weibull (W) distribution and the mini-<br />
mum sum <strong>of</strong> absolute deviations (MSAD) fitting criterion. Simi-<br />
larly if the real world is Gumble then selection <strong>of</strong> Hazen and
259<br />
MSAD for short records and Woibull-MSS (minimum sum <strong>of</strong> squares)<br />
for longer records gives the maximum probability <strong>of</strong> the under-<br />
lying distribution being <strong>of</strong> best fit. For all <strong>of</strong> the log-normal<br />
distributions, the MSS criteria <strong>with</strong> Weibull for short and Hazen<br />
for long records maximized this probability.<br />
What is apparent is that there is no dominant strategy for<br />
selection <strong>of</strong> plotting position and criteria. The selection <strong>of</strong><br />
these two factors then has an effect on the analysis to deter-<br />
mine the "best-fitting'' distribution. Perhaps the U.S. <strong>Water</strong><br />
<strong>Resources</strong> Council should wonder how the acceptance <strong>of</strong> the<br />
Weibull plotting position and the MSS criteria influenced<br />
their decision to use the log-Pearson type III distribution<br />
in flood frequency analysis.<br />
Discussions <strong>of</strong> the theoretical issues involved in the<br />
selection <strong>of</strong> a plotting position formula can be found in<br />
Langbei<strong>nl</strong>O/, Benson=/, and Appel=/.<br />
G.Weiss Shot Noise Models for Synthetic Generation <strong>of</strong> Multi-<br />
site Daily Streamflow Data<br />
This paper is another example <strong>of</strong> a synthetic gcnerating<br />
mechanism which has a physical interpretation. The shot noise<br />
process is a particular linear filtered Poisson process. For<br />
those familiar <strong>with</strong> unit hydrograph theory, the psocess may be<br />
described as the convolution <strong>of</strong> a negative exponential shaped<br />
hydrograph <strong>with</strong> a time series <strong>of</strong> rainfall events that have a<br />
Poisson occurrence and an exponential distribution <strong>of</strong> magnitude.<br />
This generating mechanism was selected to give a first-order<br />
autoregressive process which would reproduce recessions.<br />
Analytical resolutions <strong>of</strong> problems in parameter estimation<br />
and conversion from a continuous to a discrete-averaged time<br />
series are obtained. A generalization to two site generation<br />
is presented which maintains a cross-correlation. The general-<br />
ization to multiple sites is not given but could possibly be<br />
derived.<br />
Some shortcomings in the generated data required adjustments<br />
in the process. The skews were found to be too high, and the<br />
monthly variances too low. The suspected reason for these<br />
results was because the model did not consider the base flow<br />
component. A double shot noise process was developed which was<br />
the sum <strong>of</strong> two independent shot noise processes <strong>with</strong> different<br />
sets <strong>of</strong> parameters. One might imagine that this physically
260<br />
represents a surface run<strong>of</strong>f model superimposed on a base flow<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f model. The break in this line <strong>of</strong> physical interpretation<br />
comes because each process has a separate time series <strong>of</strong> pulses<br />
or rainfall. A more intuitive physical model might be one in<br />
which a fraction <strong>of</strong> the rainfall went into the surface run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
mechanism and its complement into the baseflow mechanism.<br />
I realize that this may complicate the parameter estimation<br />
problem. The author is invited to give his assessment <strong>of</strong> the<br />
problems and benefits from extending the model in this manner.<br />
Eric F. Wood Flood Control <strong>Design</strong> <strong>with</strong> Limited Data - A Compar-<br />
ison <strong>of</strong> the Classical and Bayesian Approaches<br />
Classical and Bayesian techniques are compared in the design<br />
<strong>of</strong> a flood control structure. The author makes two reasonable<br />
assumptions about the distribution <strong>of</strong> floods: (1) Floods above<br />
a base level can be assumed to occur as a Poisson process; and<br />
(2) The upper tail <strong>of</strong> many right-side unbounded frequency dis-<br />
tributions is approximately exponential. From these assumptions<br />
is derived an approximate cumulative probability function for<br />
the floods above the base level:<br />
where<br />
z = flood magnitude above the base level<br />
v = arrival rate <strong>of</strong> floods above the base level<br />
a = reciprocal <strong>of</strong> mean <strong>of</strong> floods above the base level<br />
t = time horizon<br />
This model is the basis for estimation by both the classical and<br />
Bayesian techniques.<br />
ln the classical technique, the parameters V and a are<br />
estimated by maximum likelihood techniques. This uses o<strong>nl</strong>y<br />
the site record and no other information.<br />
In the Bayesian technique, the parameters are estimated<br />
by first forming prior probability distributions on the param-<br />
eters based on regional studies and subjective judgement. Bayes<br />
equation is used to incorporate the sample information into the<br />
prior distribution to obtain a posterior distribution on these<br />
Parameters. Iii the example results <strong>of</strong> a regression analysis
261<br />
are used for estimating the parameters <strong>of</strong> the gamma-l prior<br />
distribution <strong>of</strong> (Y. Since large flood events are correlated,<br />
this method may underestimate the variance <strong>of</strong> (Y. Subjective<br />
judgement based on personal experience is assumed to provide<br />
the information for the parameters <strong>of</strong> the gamma-1 prior distri-<br />
bution <strong>of</strong> v.<br />
Caution should be exercised when interpreting the economics<br />
<strong>of</strong> the design application example. Note that these costs assume<br />
the particular model correct, and are not measures <strong>of</strong> efficiency.<br />
For example, at the optimum level <strong>of</strong> protection there is an<br />
equal marginal trade-<strong>of</strong>f between protection costs and damage<br />
costs; therefore, the evaluation <strong>of</strong> the design based on the<br />
classical model using the Bayesian model to estimate flood<br />
damages would give expected flood damages <strong>of</strong> less than the<br />
$7 x lo5 value resulting from the less expensive protection<br />
work designed on the basis <strong>of</strong> the Bayesian model.<br />
Bayesian decision theory as demonstrated in this example<br />
may have much merit as a tool for incorporating information<br />
from regional studies and small samples for decision making in<br />
data scarce areas.<br />
Summary<br />
Synthetic data generation for infilling and extension <strong>of</strong><br />
records is a difficult task when the analyst hac a mixture <strong>of</strong><br />
types, lengths, and quality <strong>of</strong> available historical data.<br />
The approaches developed by these authors attest to this<br />
variety <strong>of</strong> available data and to the various particular require-<br />
ments for input data <strong>of</strong> their simulation models and planning<br />
procedures. The literature is replete <strong>with</strong> examples <strong>of</strong> tech-<br />
niques developed for special problem applications.=/ =/ E/<br />
It was previously noted that in their data infilling and<br />
extension procedures several authors used methods which main-<br />
tained o<strong>nl</strong>y one <strong>of</strong> the relevane cross-correlations. Multisite<br />
synthetic data generation also has problems. Fierings/ dis-<br />
cusses some <strong>of</strong> the earlier attempts at overcoming the problem<br />
<strong>of</strong> inconsistent correlation matrices. More recent investiga-<br />
tions <strong>of</strong> this problem?/ =/ have led to serious questions<br />
about the feasibility <strong>of</strong> consistent parameter estimation for<br />
the more complicated flow generating models=/. F@r practical<br />
reasons, one must achieve a compromise between elegance and<br />
feasibility in these extension procedures.<br />
Difficulties remain in the problem <strong>of</strong> how much and <strong>of</strong><br />
what type <strong>of</strong> data are really needed for models used in decision
262<br />
processes. Decision theory tools have o<strong>nl</strong>y provided answers<br />
for simple and <strong>of</strong>ten analytic models. The extension <strong>of</strong> these<br />
tools into the pre-posterior 'analysis <strong>of</strong> data requirements for<br />
simulation models may be computationally prohibitive An example<br />
<strong>of</strong> an approach is given by Young, Tseng, and Taylore/-<br />
Moss and Dawdy, and Weiss have proposed essentially new<br />
statistic models which use some physical interpretation from<br />
the basin in parameter estimation. Is this to be a new emphasis<br />
in model research? Wallis and Matalas, McMahon and Meir, and<br />
Wood are interested in the sensitivity <strong>of</strong> model and analytic<br />
selection on design results. Does this question have any poten-<br />
tial for being answered? These and other questions deserve some<br />
discussion.<br />
In this short time, I have attempted to cover a few <strong>of</strong> the<br />
main points which the authors <strong>of</strong> the 12 papers have documented.<br />
These short synopses cannot do justice to the research and<br />
intellectual effort that was necessary in approaching these<br />
very pressing and practical problems. I urge each <strong>of</strong> you to<br />
read the papers. Perhaps this discussion can provide some<br />
insights that will be helpful in that task.<br />
<strong>of</strong><br />
1.<br />
2.<br />
3.<br />
4.<br />
5.<br />
To the authors I <strong>of</strong>fer my apology for any mistakes or errors<br />
either emphasis or interpretation.<br />
References<br />
Matalas, N, C., 1967, Mathematical assessment <strong>of</strong> synthetic<br />
hydrology, <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Research, v. 3, no. 4, pp. 937-945.<br />
Fiering, M. B., 1965, Streamflow Synthesis, Harvard University<br />
Press, Cambridge, Mass. 139 p.<br />
Beard, Leo R., 1965, Use <strong>of</strong> interrelated records to simulate<br />
streamflow, J. Hydraul. Div., Amer. Soc. Civil Eng., 91,<br />
pp 13-22.<br />
O'Connell, P. E., 1971, A simple stochastic modelling <strong>of</strong><br />
Hurst's law: Proceedings <strong>of</strong> the International Symposium on<br />
Mathematical Models in <strong>Hydrology</strong>, Warsaw.<br />
Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio, Jose M. Mejia, and David R. Dawdy,<br />
1972, Streamflow simulation 1. A new look at Markovian<br />
models, fractional Gaussian noise, and crossing theory:<br />
<strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Research, v. 8, no. 4, pp. 921-930.
263<br />
6. Mejia, Jose M., Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe, and David R. Dawdy,<br />
1972, Streamflow simulation 2. The broken line process as<br />
a potential model for hydrologic simulation: <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong><br />
Research, v. 8, no. 4, pp. 931-941.<br />
7. Carlson, R. F., A. J. A. MacCormick, and D. G. Watts, 1970,<br />
Application <strong>of</strong> linear random models to four annual stream-<br />
flow series, <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Research, V. 6, no. 4, pp.<br />
1070-1078.<br />
8. Wallis, J. R. and N. C. Matalas, 1972, Sensitivity <strong>of</strong> res-<br />
ervoir design to the generating mechanism <strong>of</strong> inflows:<br />
<strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Research, V. 8, no. 3, pp. 634-641.<br />
9. Crosby, D. S., and Thomas Maddock, III, 1970, Estimating<br />
coefficients <strong>of</strong> a flow generator for monotone samples <strong>of</strong><br />
data: <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Research, v. 6, no. 4, pp. 1079-1086.<br />
10. Langbein, W. B., 1960, Plotting positions in frequency<br />
analysis in Dalrymple, Tate, Flood-frequency analyses:<br />
U.S. Geological Survey <strong>Water</strong> Supply Paper 1543-A.<br />
11. Benson, Manuel A., 1967, Average probability <strong>of</strong> extreme<br />
events: <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Research, v. 3, no. 1, 225 p.<br />
12. Appel, Charles A., 1968, A note on the average probability<br />
<strong>of</strong> extreme events: <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Research, v. 4, no. 6,<br />
1359 p.<br />
13. Moreau, David H., and Edwin E. Pyatt, 1970, Weekly and<br />
monthly flows in synthetic hydrology: <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong><br />
Research, v. 6, no. 1, pp. 53-61.<br />
14. Pentland, R. L., and D. R. Cuthbert, 1971, Operational<br />
hydrology for ungaged streams by the grid square techniqumr<br />
<strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Research, v. 7, no. 2, pp. 283-291.<br />
15. Benson, M. A., and N. C. Matalas, 1967, Synthetic hydrology<br />
based on regional statistical parameters: <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong><br />
Research, v. 3, no. 4, pp. 931-935.<br />
16. Fiering, M. B., 1968, Schemes for handling inconsistent<br />
matrices: <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Research, v. 4, no. 2, pp. 291-297.<br />
17. Matalas, N. C., and J. R. Wallis, 1971, Correlation con-<br />
straints for generating processes: Proceedings <strong>of</strong> the Inter-<br />
national Symposium on Mathematical Models in <strong>Hydrology</strong>,<br />
Warsaw.
264<br />
18. Slack, J. R., 1972, Bias, illusion, and denial as data<br />
uncertainties: Proceedings <strong>of</strong> the International Symposium<br />
on Uncertainties in Hydrologic and <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Systems,<br />
Tucson, Arizona.<br />
19. Young, G. K., M. T. Tseng, and R. S. Taylor, 1972, Data<br />
selection for environmental simulations - A water tempera-<br />
ture example: <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Research, v. 8, no. 5,<br />
pp. 1226-1233.
ABSTRACT<br />
ETUDE DES RELATIONS PLUIE-DEBIT<br />
SUR TROIS BASSINS VERSANTS D'INVESTIGATION.<br />
Y. C OWRY - A. GUI LBOT<br />
Research basins are useful way to study hydrologic cycle<br />
On three <strong>of</strong> them,<strong>with</strong> areas between 109 and 250 km2,the<br />
authors have stablished a model relating rain and run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
This model is able to simulate mesured run<strong>of</strong>f series<br />
from rain series and provide a better understanding <strong>of</strong> hydrologic<br />
mechanisms at the scale <strong>of</strong> this basins.<br />
ïhis paper suggests a méthodology which,applied to many<br />
ba.sins,should permit the identification <strong>of</strong> the relations between<br />
the physical caracteristics <strong>of</strong> a basin and the model parameters<br />
identification which is necessary in order to apply this model<br />
to ungaged basins.<br />
RES UME<br />
Les bassins versants d'invectigatioh constituent en ecx<br />
mêmes un outil de recherche privilégié en ce qui concerne les<br />
mécanismes mis en jeu par le cycle hydrologique naturel.<br />
Sur trois d'entre eux.de superficie comprise entre<br />
100 et 250 km2,les auteurs ont établi un modèle de liaison pluie<br />
débits permettant la reconstitution des séries de débits observés<br />
à partir des séries concomitantes de pluie et autorisant une<br />
mellleure connaissance des mécanismes hydrologiques considérés<br />
A l'échelle de ces bassins<br />
L'approche du cycle hydrologique à nécessité diverses<br />
opérations telles que:<br />
-choix du schéma hydrologique et mise au point du modele<br />
-réglage du modele et mise au point d'an processus de<br />
determination numérique des parametres ,<br />
-vérification de la validité du modèle par comparaison<br />
aux séries obserdes tau niveau des caractéristiques statistiques<br />
des principales grandeurs hydrologiques'<br />
-étude de la convergence des méthodes d'optimisation en<br />
présence d'erreurs aléatoires sur les données d'entrées<br />
-analyse spatiale et temporelle des séries entrée-sortie<br />
(choix du pas de temps des entrées et determination du décalage<br />
pluie-débit par analyses spectrales)<br />
Cette étude définit une méthodologie générale d'utilisa-<br />
tion qui devrait permettre,à long terme,l'identification des<br />
relations liant les caractéristiques physiques d'un bassin et les<br />
parametres du modele,identification nécpssaire dans le ras d'ap-<br />
plication du modèle à des bassins non contrôlés<br />
COWRY Yves - Ingénieur<br />
Agronome - Laboratoire National<br />
d'Hydraulique E.D.F. - Pr<strong>of</strong>esseur Aesocié à l'Université des<br />
Sciences et Techniques du Languedoc - Montpellier (France)<br />
GUILBOT Alain - Ingénieur - Laboratoire d'Hydrologie -<br />
Université des Sciences et Techniques du Languedoc - Montpellier<br />
(France)
2 66 I. GENERALITES :<br />
Dans l'étude de la liaison pluie - débit,il s'agit<br />
d'élaborer généralement un modele, type "boite noire" qui:<br />
considérant la séries des pluies comme"entrée",permet d'obtenir<br />
une"s0rtie"concordant sensiblement avec la série chronologique<br />
concomitante des débits observés<br />
On peut alors envisager plusieurs types de modeleS.tels<br />
que les modeles linéaires classiques obtenus par corrélation,<br />
analyse multivariables,analyse factorielle..,,les modeles à<br />
élément central linéaire (basé sur l'hypothèse de l'hydrogramme<br />
unitaire) ou les modeles conceptuels qui,en quelque sorte,font<br />
la synthèse générale.<br />
La stucture d'un modèle conceptuel est fondée sur la<br />
connaissance ou la pseudo-connaissance des phénomenes en jeu<br />
dans le cycle hydrologique. .<br />
On suppose,par exemple,que les taux et les vitesses de<br />
transfert de l'eau de pluie par telle ou telle partie de cycle<br />
hydrologique sont asservis à l'état de remplissage de la zone<br />
correspondante par des fonctions à un ou deux parametres.<br />
La sortie résultante,en l'occurence la dérie des débits<br />
calculés,est comparée à la sortie observée daps le systeme réel,<br />
c'est à dire la série des débits observés à l'exutoire du bassin.<br />
Si la concordance ne semble pas satisfaisante,on modifia<br />
les psrametres des foictions des divers sous-systemes,jusqu'à<br />
obtenir une corredpondance satisfaisante entre les séries observées<br />
et calculées<br />
Ceci ne devrait etre fait,non pas dans le but d'un calage<br />
spécifique permettant d'obtenir l'hydrogramme d'un bassin<br />
particulier,mais dans l'optique d'une recherche de liens entre<br />
les valeurs des parametres du modele et les caractéristiques du<br />
bass in.<br />
I1 est donc nécessaire d'une part d'appliquer le même<br />
modèle à de nombreux bassins,d'autre part que tout modele conceptuel<br />
soit,au départ,aussi simple que possible et que des modifications<br />
ne lui soient apportées que sf la nécessité absolue apparaisse.(raisons<br />
physiques ou amélioration évidente de la reproduction)<br />
Un systeme simple,parceque dans un schéma élaboré,il<br />
y aura de fortes chances que le modele comporte deux sous-systeme<br />
tout à fait équivalents et il sera extremement délicat de lever<br />
l'indétermination sur l'attribution de la valeur des parametres à<br />
l'un ou l'autre de ces sous-systèmes,ensuite parceque seul un<br />
modele simple permettra l'identification parometres-caractéris-<br />
tiques du bassin et donc son utilisation sur des bassins non<br />
jaugés.
267<br />
II.LES BASSINS ET LES DONNEES:<br />
L'étude porte sur trois bassins expérimentaux présentant<br />
des caracteres morphologiques,géologiques et pédologiques<br />
bien différenciés.<br />
-le bassin de ia DIEGE,affluent de la DORDOGNE,<br />
d'une superficie de 225 km2.Géré par EDF depuis 1960 puis par<br />
le Laboratoire d'Hydrologie de l'université des Sciences et<br />
Techniques du Languedoc,c'est un bassin montagneux.,cristsllin,<br />
bien boisé et soumis à des influences océaniques et méditerranéennes.<br />
-le bassin de l'ORGEVAL,affluent du GRAND MORIN<br />
d'une superficie de 104 km2 Géré par le C.T.G.R.E.F(Ministere de<br />
l'Agriculture) depuis 1962,c'est un vaste plateau limoneux,coJver<br />
dans sa majeure partie de culture et soumis à des influences<br />
océaniques et continentales.<br />
-le bassin de l'HALLUE,affluent de la SOW-,<br />
d'une superficie de 219 km2.Géré depuis 1966 par le B.R.G.F,<br />
c'est un bassin de relief modér6,formé de craie recouverte de<br />
limon et principalement mis en culture.11 est soumis essantiel-<br />
lement à des influences océaniques.<br />
Ces trois bassins étant des bassins expérimentaur,les<br />
données étaient caractérisées d'uns part par un volume important<br />
d'informations disponibles,d'autre part par une qualité de l'enregistrement<br />
et du dépouillement (à de rares exceptions pres)<br />
Le choix d'une pluviométrie représentative fut fait,<br />
soit en fonction de nos propres connaissances du bassin(B.V de<br />
la DIEGE),soit en fonction des conseils de l'organisme de gestion<br />
(BV de i'OXGEV?,L),soit apres une analyse spatiale de ia pïuviom6triecB.V<br />
de 1'HALLUE).<br />
Le choix de l'indice d'ETP a,par contre,été mené de m2-<br />
niere quelque peu arbitraire et de façon indépendante pour les<br />
tois bassins ce qui semble une erreur,compte tenu de l'importance<br />
effective de sa variance interannuelle et de son niveau moyen<br />
Remarqueune méthode systématique de dépouillement a<br />
été mise au point et utilisée dans le cadre de cette étude.<br />
I1 s'agit de.traduire l'enregistrement pluviométrique<br />
ou limnimétrique dans un systeme (X,Y) sur machine D.MAC puis<br />
de transformer ces données"digita1isées en donées de pas de<br />
temps voulu (2h,10 mn..)<br />
III.LES MODELES:<br />
Dans le cadre d'une précédente étude,plusieurs mcdeles<br />
avaient été élaborés et testés par le Laboratoire.<br />
Trois d'entre eux ont été'retenus et rendus opérationnel<br />
Ce sont les modeles DIEGE.MER0 et CREC
268<br />
---- IV.LES METHODES EMPLOYEES:<br />
4.1.1:Méthodes des composantes principales appliquée à<br />
la détermination de la représentativité de l'.information pluviométrique<br />
:<br />
La méthode d'analyse en composantes principales permet<br />
de substituer k vecteurs X de n composantes corrélées entres elles<br />
à k vecteurs Y de p composantes indépendantes avec p
269<br />
4 . 2 s ~ :<br />
Les parametres des fonctions des divers sous-systemes<br />
des modeles fproduction,transfert) sont rarement déterminés a<br />
priori de façon précise.Nous avons accompli un effort tout particulier<br />
pour mettre au point une technique de détermination numérique<br />
de ces parametres,technique devant etre assez générale<br />
pour etre appliquée systématiquement 3 n'importe quel bassin en<br />
assurant une convergence réelle et rapide vers un optimum objectif.<br />
La méthodologie que nous proposons,testées initialement<br />
sur séries fictives,donc currespondsnt à une structure de modele<br />
et un jeu de parametres définis,semble particulièrement intéressante:<br />
1.Définition de la zone de variation de chacun<br />
des parametres (en fonction de la nature du bassin et des result<br />
ats des analyses préalables des séries d'entrées)<br />
2.Tirage au hasard,d'abord dans une loi uniforme<br />
puis dans une loi normale avec diminution de la variance<br />
de ia loi en cas de succes(ceci afin d'éviter Loe recherche systématique<br />
à partir d'un faux minimum)<br />
3.Recherche "direcre",avec rotation des axes<br />
de co~rdonnéos("nûCENaRû~~:.~.~c~erche séquentieiie effectuée successivefiient<br />
sur chacun des axes de coordonnées(correspondant<br />
chacun à un parametre) suivant un pas d'exploration modifié selon<br />
les échécs et les succes rencontrés.Si,dans toutes les directions<br />
ont a enregistré au moins un succes suivi d'un échec,on défini<br />
alors la nouvelle direction du premier axe comme étant celle<br />
joignant !e point initial et le point final.La direction des<br />
autres axes est obtenue par la méthode d'ortogonalisation de<br />
SCHMIDT.<br />
4.Recherche fine par ta méthode du gradient<br />
conjuguée (Powell) lorsque la précédente méthode ne converge<br />
que tres 1entement.La méthode de POWELL utilise la méthode des<br />
directions conjuguée mais modifie le procédé de base afin d'accélérer<br />
la vitesse de convergence vers l'optimum tout en définissant<br />
un processus de recherc!:e le long d'un axe.<br />
Ce dtverses méthodes appliquées en cascade permettent<br />
la réduction d'un critere d'écart cho.si afin d'assurer une<br />
reconstitution satisfaisante et homogene sur une période déterminée,(le<br />
critere choisi est de la forme<br />
1 IQobs-<br />
F = -5<br />
Qca$ IOobs - OmovPd<br />
9<br />
N Qobs moyen<br />
N étant le nombre de mois de la période,>de calage et Qmoyen le<br />
module de la période de calage<br />
Ce choix a été fait dans le hut de rendre préférentiels<br />
les écarts SUU les valeurs extrêmes.En effet,dans cette expressio<br />
plus on s'écarte duidébit moyen,plus l'écart relatif est pondéré<br />
par une valeur importante,et cela,aussi bien pour les faibles<br />
débits.que pour les crues.
270<br />
Exemple d'application de la méthode d'optimisation proposée<br />
En appliquant un jeu de paramètres à une série de données pluviométriques<br />
journalières, nous avons généré une série de débits fictifs journaliers<br />
à l'aide du modèle CREC.<br />
Nous nous sommes ensuite proposé de reconstituer cette série de<br />
débits en utilisant la méthode précédemment décrite.<br />
La réelle convergence de la méthode, tant au niveau de la fonction<br />
critère qu'au niveau des paramètres, semble montrer son efficacit6 dans le<br />
cas de séries parfaitement adéquates, sans erreúrs de mesure et avec un<br />
modèle vrai.<br />
x1<br />
x2<br />
x3<br />
x4<br />
x5<br />
X6<br />
x7<br />
Résultats de la recherche des paramètres<br />
du modèle (;I:EC par la méthode préconisée<br />
Erreur<br />
Valeur Etape 1 Etape 2 Etape 3 relative %<br />
vraie<br />
O. 069 O. 0597 0.0765 O. 0693 O. 4<br />
o.. a43 O. 7322 o. 5871 o. a435 O. 06<br />
o. 0212 0.3922 0.0361 9.0221 4<br />
O. 0344 o. ooao O. 0272 O. 0343 O. 3<br />
3.902 6.5784 4.5951 3. a290 1.9<br />
7.992 6. a303 5.5790 a. 020 O. 4<br />
15.146 27.7554 4.6670 13. aaao 8.3<br />
O 636 58 1.5<br />
[Interprétation des résultat4<br />
L'adéquation du modèle CREC à l'étude de la liaison pluie-débit<br />
sur les trois bassins étudiés peut s'accompagner d'une tentative de jus-,<br />
tification.<br />
Le schéma proposé par ce modèle présente au niveau du transfert<br />
une zone que l'on peut qualifier d'hypodermique et une zone souterraine.<br />
I1 apparaît que, pour le bassin de l'HALLUE, l'écoulement calculé<br />
provient pour une part essentielle de la zone souterraine, ce qui est en<br />
accord avec l'influence prépondérante des variati.ons de la nappe phréatique<br />
sur les débits observés sur ce bassin.<br />
De même pour le bassin de l'ORGEVAL, drainé artificiellement<br />
(drainage agricole) et ne présentant pas de réserves souterraines importantes,<br />
la majeure partie de l'écoulement calculé provient de la zone<br />
définie comme "hypodermique'' (l'alimentation de la zone souterraine<br />
semblant être une constante du bassin).<br />
Enfin, sur le bassin de la DIEGE, l'écoulement hypodermique est<br />
là aussi essentiel. De plus, deux remarques sont à faire : d'une part ce<br />
bassin peut présenter dans le cas d'une saturation importante du sol<br />
accompagnée de pluies intenses, du ruissellement "superficiel" (crue historique<br />
de 19601, ce que l'on retrouve au niveau du schéma du modèle CREC,<br />
d'autre part, il semblerait que l'alimentation des réserves souterraines
(faibles dans cette région) ne se<br />
seuil de teneur en eau de la zone<br />
I1 Y a donc une cohérence<br />
produisent qu'à partir d'un certain<br />
hypodermique.<br />
certaine entre la nature des divers<br />
271<br />
bassins et le comportement hydrologique du modèle proposé.<br />
Le manque de politique homogène au niveau du choix de l'indice<br />
d'ETP ne peut malheureusement pas permettre la comparaison de la fonction<br />
de production sur les trois bassins et un effort reste à faire quant à<br />
ce choix.<br />
Conclusion<br />
Si, sur le plan opérationnel, les modèles utilisés se moritrent<br />
,différents au niveau de l'application (performance, sensibilité,....), ils<br />
restent tous discutables sur le plan conceptuel, puisqu'ils fixent a<br />
priori, en l'absence de foute veritable information intermédiaire entre<br />
la pluie et le débit, le schéma du cycle hydrologique.<br />
Néammoins, cette approche a permis de mettre en évidence l'ad+"-<br />
tion de certains schémas du cycle hydrologique pour représenter plusieurs<br />
bassins, en autorisant une extrapolation temporelle (35 ans sur la DIEGE).<br />
Dans un esprit d'application de ces méthodes 2. des projet; d'aménage-<br />
ment des ressources en eau sans données suffisantes, il resterait à :<br />
- dégager des groupes de bassins justiciables de chaque schéma<br />
- définir des critères d'adéquation a priori d'un bassin à un<br />
schéma déterminé<br />
- caractériser chaque bassin par des index mesurablesmou analy-<br />
sables en absence de longues séries de données, et dont la détermination<br />
déboucherait sur l'appréciation quantitative des paramètres d'un modèle<br />
global,<br />
Ceci permettrait le choix d'un modèle (schéma et valeurs des<br />
parametres) capable de i-zprésenter le comportement d'un bassin non jaugé,<br />
dont on pourrait, à partir des séries climatologiques dispoqibles, simuler<br />
1 'écoulement.
272<br />
R E F E R E N C E S<br />
(1) F. AUBIN - A. GUILBOT (note HYD 13/72 et 14/72)<br />
- Application de l'analyse spectrale - bassin de la DIEGE<br />
- Influence d'erreurs aléatoires sur la convergence d'une méthode<br />
d'opthisation. Tentatives de filtrage des séries chronologiques<br />
(2) Y. CORIíARY - A. GUILBOT (HYD 6/71)<br />
Etude générale de quelques modèles détermises de relations<br />
pluie-débit<br />
(3) Y. CORMARY - A. GUILBOT (HY3 44/70 - SHF - NOV. 1970)<br />
Méthodes d'optimisation des paramètres des modèles déterdnistes<br />
(4) Y. CORIlARY - A. GUILBOT (HYD 16/71)<br />
Processus d'optimisation en quatre étapes applicable B la recherche<br />
des paramètrss des modèles déterministes<br />
(5) Y. CORMARY - S. RAMBAL (HYD 32/71)<br />
Relations pluie-débiG, bassin versant de 1'HALLUE B l'échelle<br />
journalisre et à l'échelle bi-horairE<br />
(6) Y. CORMARY - G. GALEA (HYD 27/71)<br />
Relations pluie-débit, bassin versant de l'ORGEVAL, à l'échelle<br />
j ourna 1 i gr e<br />
(7) Y. CORMARY - M. ANGLES (HYD 7/71)<br />
Relations pluie-débit sur le bassin de la DIEGE à l'échelle<br />
journalii2te et à l'échelle bi-horaire<br />
(8) Y. CORMARY - M. LARINIER (HYD 34/71)<br />
Etudes théoriques des processus d'infiltration, d'évaporation<br />
et de drain8ge. Bibiiovraphie. Schemas d'approche du cycle<br />
hydrologique<br />
(9) Y. CORMARY - M. LARINIER ( HYD 33/71) .<br />
Utilisation du catalogue des sols pour la prédétermination des<br />
parametres dans les modèles HûLTAN et HANON<br />
(10) G, GALEA (thèse de 3ème cycle - 1972)<br />
Etude des relations pluie-débit sur le bassin de 1'ORT;EVAL<br />
(11) M. ANGLES (thèse de.3Eme cycle,- 1972)<br />
Etude des relacions pluie-déhit sur le bassin de la DïEGE<br />
000
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7 PARAMETRES<br />
MODELE CWEC 273<br />
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MODULES ANNUELS<br />
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AMEß
EXTENSION OF RUNOFF RECORDS FOR SMALL CATCHMENTS IN SEMI-ARID REGIONS<br />
ABS TRACT<br />
S. H. Charania<br />
A mathematical model developed by Thomas and Fiering is used<br />
for the purpose. This model is based on statistical principles to<br />
produce an u<strong>nl</strong>imited record which has the same statistical properties<br />
as the original record. The statistical characteristics <strong>of</strong> data used<br />
are the means, standard deviations, volumes, skewness, variances and<br />
kurtosis <strong>of</strong> flows. Briefly, the main steps for the synthesls <strong>of</strong> data<br />
available or their transformations are as follows:<br />
(al determina'ion <strong>of</strong> statistical properties;<br />
(b) determination <strong>of</strong> frequency distributions;<br />
(c> regression and correlation analysis <strong>of</strong> data (or their<br />
transformati0ns)<strong>with</strong> a detailed study <strong>of</strong> the confidence<br />
limits <strong>of</strong> lines <strong>of</strong> regression and statistical parameters;<br />
(dl generation <strong>of</strong> random numbers;<br />
(el synthesis <strong>of</strong> flows using the above model.<br />
Tn order to speed up the work and to get more accurate results,<br />
computers are used for almost all the calculatlons; various computer<br />
programmes (Fortran IV), required for the development <strong>of</strong> synthesized<br />
data, are developed. The data tested on the model are from small<br />
catchments in semi-arid regions <strong>of</strong> Kenya and Australia.<br />
RESUME<br />
Un modèle mathématique a été mis au point par Thomas et Fier-<br />
nig. I1 est conçu pour produire une série illimitée ayant les mêmes<br />
propriétés statistiques que la série d'observations disponible. Les<br />
caractéristiques statistiques prises en compte sont: les moyennes,<br />
les dcarts types, les variances, les coefficients d'assymétrie et<br />
d'aplatissement des distributions de dlbits. Les principales étapes<br />
pour la synthese ou la transformation des données disponibles sont<br />
résumées ci-dessous:<br />
(a) Détermination des propriétés statistiques.<br />
(b) Détermination des distributions de fréquence.<br />
(c) Etude des regressions et corrélations concernant les données<br />
ou leurs transformées; étude détaillée des limites de confiance<br />
des courbes de régression et des paramètres statistiques.<br />
Cdl Production de nombres au hasard.<br />
(e) Synthèse de séries de débits ä partir du modkïe élaboré.<br />
Presque toutes les opkrations sont faites sur ordinateur afin<br />
d'obtenir des rgsultats rapides et précis. Plusieurs programmes écrits<br />
en fortran IY ont dtd mis au point pour l'obtention des donnees syn-<br />
thétiques. Le modèle a 6te appliqué 3 des données recueillies SUT de<br />
petits bassins des rbgions semi-arides du Kenya et dfAustralie.
282<br />
INTRODUCTION<br />
Hew and untapped souroes <strong>of</strong> water need to be developed and<br />
controlled to meet the inoreasing demand for water. For this we<br />
require long records <strong>of</strong> flows <strong>with</strong> exact sequence <strong>of</strong> hydrological<br />
events. Such long records are, unfortunately, not available, es-<br />
pecially in the semi-arid regions. In semi-arid regions <strong>of</strong> Africa<br />
and Australia usually o<strong>nl</strong>y 20 to 30 years <strong>of</strong> records are available.<br />
Short reoords can be extended to any required period <strong>of</strong> time<br />
by simulation techniques whioh involve certain types <strong>of</strong> mathematical<br />
or logical models that describe the behaviour <strong>of</strong> the system over ex-<br />
tended periods <strong>of</strong> real time.<br />
There are two variants <strong>of</strong> simulation, operational gaming<br />
and the Monte Carlo techniques. The Monte Carlo technique is the<br />
one used in this paper.<br />
PRINCIPLES OF THE MODEL BY TñOMAS AND FIERING<br />
Data used<br />
The streamflows considered should be independent values<br />
and also <strong>of</strong> a long period. Therefore annual, monthly and daily<br />
streamflows can be oonsidered; annual flows are definitely in-<br />
dependent flows, but they are <strong>of</strong>ten not used when the period <strong>of</strong><br />
record is too short. Daily flows are not used if they are not<br />
independent flow values. Monthly flow values generally satisfy<br />
the requirements <strong>of</strong> independence and adequate periods <strong>of</strong> record and<br />
are used.<br />
The model rewiremsnts<br />
The data used should be serially correlated and normally<br />
distributed. If the historical flows are not normally distributed<br />
appropriate transformations are or should be used to make them so.<br />
In such cases, the synthesized flows should be converted to their<br />
original form.<br />
The model<br />
The method assume8 that the streamflows are made up <strong>of</strong> two<br />
components, the deterministic and the random. Therefore the model<br />
(a reoursive equation) for unit time interval (one month) to generate<br />
flows is:
I _- QJ =mean flows <strong>of</strong> consecutiva months.<br />
Qí~+i) AND<br />
Q; AND Q (i+,) =flows during the months i and ;+f.<br />
BJ =regression coefficient.<br />
ri =norma2 random variate.<br />
aj+- =standard deviation <strong>of</strong> flaws.<br />
In computations j runs cyclically from 1 to 12 and the<br />
index i from O to 12 times the number <strong>of</strong> record years to be<br />
generated minus 1.<br />
Determination <strong>of</strong> Ti<br />
283<br />
The area under the normal distribution curve is divided<br />
into 100 equal areas, each bounded by a vertical line parallel to<br />
y-axis. The values <strong>of</strong> X at the boundary lines repreeent the bound-<br />
ary values <strong>of</strong> Ti for each area <strong>with</strong> equal probability. A typical<br />
vglue <strong>of</strong> Ti for each area is determined by calculating the mean <strong>of</strong><br />
the boundary values. Out <strong>of</strong> 100 typical values <strong>of</strong> Ti one is selected<br />
for use in the model using the random numbers.<br />
CRITERIA FOR SELECTION OF THE CATCHEIEñTS<br />
Two important phrases in the title need interpretation as<br />
follows r<br />
(a)<br />
(b)<br />
'for a small reservoir' - The size <strong>of</strong> the catchment is restricted<br />
to between i30 to 1300 square kilometres.<br />
'a eemi-arid region' - The rainfall in the catchment is<br />
limited to less than 508 milimetres per annum.<br />
The oatchments selected for the paper are Wakefield River<br />
catchment in Australia and Kongoni River catchment in Kenya.<br />
NOTES ON THE SELECTED CATCHMENTS<br />
Wakefield river catchment<br />
The catchment <strong>with</strong> an area <strong>of</strong> 420 square kilometres lies<br />
in south Australia. The general relief <strong>of</strong> the catchment consists<br />
<strong>of</strong> undulating plains <strong>with</strong> ridges ranging from 150 to 305 metres.<br />
The highest point in the catchment is 600 metres.
284<br />
The stream, 40 kilometres long, drops Prom 500 to 220<br />
metres and has two major tributaries, the Pine creek and Skillolgale<br />
creek. It is considered perennial but flashy.<br />
500 mm.<br />
Average rainfall on the catchment is between 400 to<br />
Temperatures are high in summer <strong>with</strong> normal annual range<br />
from 40 to 50 degrees farenheit (4.5OC to IOOC).<br />
Relative humidity is also high in summer <strong>with</strong> a peak <strong>of</strong><br />
80 per cent.<br />
Soils in the catchment are normal malee soils <strong>of</strong> a pinkish<br />
brown colour and light sandy texture. These are rich in lime but<br />
poor in humus and phosphate. Rocks in the area are mai<strong>nl</strong>y lime-<br />
stone.<br />
Monthly flows and their totals from 1953 to 1968 are<br />
available as are the monthly rainfalls for the five stations in<br />
and around the catchment.<br />
Eongoni river catchment<br />
A catchment <strong>with</strong> an area <strong>of</strong> approximately i5 square kilo-<br />
metres on the north west slope <strong>of</strong> Mount Kenya. The source <strong>of</strong> the<br />
river is at an altitude <strong>of</strong> 2600 metres and the station at 2000<br />
metres. The stream passes from the forest area into grasslands.<br />
The stream, <strong>with</strong> no major tributaries, is about 13 kilometres<br />
long and perennial.<br />
Average rainfall in the catchment is between 500 to 600<br />
milimetres, <strong>with</strong> heavy falls in April and November.<br />
It is hot in the catohment throughout the year <strong>with</strong> mean<br />
temperatures around 60 degrees farenheit (i5.5OC).<br />
Daily and monthly flovs <strong>with</strong> their totals from i932 to i969<br />
excluding 1954, 1955, and 1956 are available for the catchment and<br />
also the monthly rainfalls <strong>of</strong> three stations in and around the area.<br />
ANALYSIS<br />
Statistics <strong>of</strong> flows<br />
These assist finally in establishing the success <strong>of</strong> the<br />
method used. The following properties are required for each<br />
month <strong>of</strong> the year in recordt
(a) total volumes <strong>of</strong> flows;<br />
(a)<br />
(c)<br />
(d)<br />
(e)<br />
(f)<br />
(g)<br />
means <strong>of</strong> the flows and/or their transformed values;<br />
confidence limits <strong>of</strong> the means;<br />
variance and standard deviations <strong>of</strong> flows and their<br />
confidence limits;<br />
skewness <strong>of</strong> the flows - these show the degree <strong>of</strong> departure<br />
<strong>of</strong> the distribution <strong>of</strong> flows from symmetry. There is a<br />
dimensio<strong>nl</strong>ees measure but that i8 not used. The absolute<br />
and relative skewness are caloulated;<br />
kurtosis <strong>of</strong> flows - this measures the degree <strong>of</strong> spread <strong>of</strong><br />
the data and is calculated using moments;<br />
285<br />
trends <strong>of</strong> flows - the calculation is based on the principle<br />
<strong>of</strong> least squares.<br />
Frequency distribution<br />
This is a very important aspect <strong>of</strong> the procedure os there<br />
is a condition that the data used should be normally distributed.<br />
There are various methods to check whether the data is normally<br />
distributed or not. Por the paper the following procedure was<br />
followed:<br />
(a><br />
(b)<br />
(o)<br />
check the skewness and kurtosis <strong>of</strong> the flow data;<br />
if the skewness is not equal to zero and kurtosis is not equal<br />
to 3.0 the data is transformed and the statistics rechecked.<br />
The txansformations are carried until the values <strong>of</strong> skewness<br />
and kurtosis are 0.0 and 3.0 respectively;<br />
the data or the transformed values are plotted on the<br />
probability paper using plotting position ia/a. If the<br />
data give a straight line it is aesumed that the values<br />
are normally distributed.<br />
Bemession and correlation analysis<br />
A statistical relationship between the flows in different<br />
months is determined. A linear regression equation Y - A + Bx is<br />
developed for each month; the constants A and B are calculated as<br />
follows t
286<br />
Confidence limits <strong>of</strong> the regression constant B and the<br />
regression line are also determined.<br />
Coefficient <strong>of</strong> correlation (or covarianoe), an expression<br />
for the degree <strong>of</strong> scatter in regression is calculated using the<br />
following formula:<br />
Generation <strong>of</strong> random numbers<br />
The random numbers are used to obtain the random component<br />
<strong>of</strong> the model. There are alternative methods to generate a sequence<br />
<strong>of</strong> random numbers. The latest technique is the generation <strong>of</strong> psuedorandom<br />
numbers by digital computer methods. This produoes numbers<br />
that are<br />
(a) uniformly distributedl<br />
(b) statistically independent;<br />
(c) reproduaible;<br />
(a)<br />
non-repeating for any desired length.<br />
The validity <strong>of</strong> random numbers is tested by different<br />
methods but frequency test method is the most convenient.<br />
For the model we require random numbers that are normally<br />
distributed. The uniformly distributed random numbers are there-<br />
fore transformed to be normally distributed. These are then ad-<br />
justed for the mean and standard deviation.<br />
Calculations for the generation <strong>of</strong> streamflows for the<br />
two catchments are illustrated in Figures 1, 2 and 3.
DESCRIPTION OF RESULTS<br />
287<br />
Wakefield river catchment: Monthly flow values are used<br />
as historical records available for the simulation <strong>of</strong> records.<br />
These values are not normally distributed so they have to be trans-<br />
formed. It is found that the logs <strong>of</strong> square roots <strong>of</strong> flows are<br />
normally distributed.<br />
The total flows show that in i4 years <strong>of</strong> records available,<br />
the maximum annual run<strong>of</strong>f is 10.25 a lo3 cum/D. The years 1954,<br />
1957, 1959, 1962, 1965 and 1966 have very low run<strong>of</strong>fs compared to<br />
other years. The lowest run<strong>of</strong>f observed is 2.30 x lo3 cum/D.<br />
August has the highest total monthly flow <strong>of</strong> 88.5 x lo3 cum/D,<br />
the lowest flow is in February <strong>of</strong> 2.98 x 103 cum/^.<br />
The means, variances and the standard deviations follow a<br />
pattern which is similar to that for the volumes; on the other<br />
hand, skewness and kurtosis have completely different patterns:<br />
this could be due to accumulated errors and hence these values<br />
are o<strong>nl</strong>y taken as a guide. The confidence limits <strong>of</strong> the statistiical<br />
parameters are very useful in the final check.<br />
It is found that thereis very little scatter <strong>of</strong> values<br />
in regression and correlation analysis; the correlations are<br />
poor for a couple <strong>of</strong> months but for the rest they are very high<br />
indeed.<br />
Konsïoni river catchmentr In this oase also, the monthly<br />
flows are used. in the records <strong>of</strong> 30 years, the highest flow is<br />
recorded in Aprilr 41.5 x lo6 cum/D; the lowest is in February:<br />
zero flow.<br />
All statistical parameters, except for skewness and kurtosis,<br />
follow the same pattern as that for volumes; again, the skewness and<br />
kurtosis seem to have accumulated errors and cannot be relied upon.<br />
COBCLUSIOIPS<br />
The correlation <strong>of</strong> flows appear to be extremely good.<br />
The usefulness <strong>of</strong> the stochastic model for low flows, by<br />
Thomas and Fiering, is well demonstrated. 39 thie paper the model<br />
was used to simulate flows from the small experimental catchments<br />
<strong>of</strong> Kongoni river in Kenya and Wakefield river in Australia, and for<br />
both catchments, the parameters <strong>of</strong> synthetic flows lie <strong>with</strong>in the<br />
95 per cent confidence limits <strong>of</strong> the historical flows.
288<br />
The results therefore indicate that the model can be<br />
successfully applied to the flows from small catchments in<br />
semi-arid regions. Howevex, when applying the above theory, the<br />
following points should be consideredt<br />
(a><br />
the initial flow values should be reliable to avoid any<br />
accumulation errors in the final results#<br />
(b) the frequency distribution <strong>of</strong> th+ flaüdg if the initial<br />
flows are not normally distributed, appropriate transform-<br />
ations have to be used to normalise them;<br />
(c 1<br />
the selection <strong>of</strong> a value <strong>of</strong> 't'r this is an important<br />
part <strong>of</strong> the model; random numbers are used to achieve the<br />
purpose as explained in the paper;<br />
(a) negative flows: on synthesis, negative flows are obtained.<br />
If the transformed values used initially are in the log form,<br />
then no changes have to be made; if the initial transformed<br />
values are not in the log forra, then the negative values have<br />
to be removed by replacing them <strong>with</strong> zero values.<br />
References<br />
Fiering, M.B. (1961). Queing theory and simulation in reservoir<br />
design. Journal <strong>of</strong> Jïyd. Div. B.S.C.E., Vol. 87, pp. 36-59.<br />
Thomas, H.A. and Fiering, M.B. (1962). Mathematical synthesis<br />
<strong>of</strong> streamflow sequences for the analysis <strong>of</strong> river basin by<br />
simulation. Chapter 12 in '<strong>Design</strong> <strong>of</strong> water reaourceE systems'<br />
by Maas et al, Harvard.<br />
Beard, L.R. (1967). Hydrologic simulation in water analysis.<br />
Journal <strong>of</strong> Irrigation and Drainage Div. A.S.C.E.<br />
Smty, T.L. (1961). Elements <strong>of</strong> Queing theory. McGraw Hill book<br />
company Inc. New York.
Figure i - Wakefield river catchment<br />
289
290<br />
,-<br />
Figure 2 - Analysis <strong>of</strong> Kongoni river flows.<br />
I J A S O N D -<br />
Fm-3<br />
no<br />
.O.,”.
I,<br />
f =(SKU(NGl)+ SKUiNG)<br />
12) (-10)<br />
I READ STREAXí1.J) I=it d.14 I<br />
1 READ ARE4 U:.3)E? hORHPL CURVE 1<br />
__-<br />
I<br />
DETERVINE VPLXS U-: STAri?AkD FiORtJAL LARIATE FOR<br />
AREA UNGE P.ORMAL CUR\.€ FRCM 0.01 TO O5<br />
I STCAAil) = VkRAAil)+r0.5 I<br />
'<br />
..<br />
ss- xxxx ciz,rr,<br />
CSLV(l2,l) =xxxxi1z,141<br />
Ir11<br />
P= 1 A<br />
CALL THE RCNWM iiü:A;ER GNERATCG<br />
..<br />
S = 16.70<br />
NG2=100-NG+l<br />
/21 (-10) NO=NG2- 1<br />
T =CU(UíNG2) t SKL'ih'GJ!)<br />
/2a<br />
Figure 3 - Flow ohart for the synthesis <strong>of</strong> flows<br />
291<br />
-<br />
flG2=lGC - D<br />
T ;(i353 t SSL!;N13!:<br />
/z O)
ABS TRACT<br />
SIMULATION OF HYDROLOGICAL SAMPLES BY NATURAL WATER<br />
FLOW CHARACTER1 S TI CT ICs<br />
A.I.Davydova, G.P.Kaliniii<br />
The paper is concerned <strong>with</strong> long hidrological series which have<br />
a specified distribution and are characterized by basin annual flows<br />
rather than by random number sensors. The theoretical basis for cons<br />
truction <strong>of</strong> a numerical sequence is a combined analysis <strong>of</strong> mean an-<br />
nual flow probabilities for groups <strong>of</strong> basins (incompletely homoge-<br />
neous) selected to suit certain correlational estimates. By using va<br />
rious techniques the basic statistical characteristics <strong>of</strong> initial t i<br />
me distributions are taken into account, The length <strong>of</strong> such series<br />
depends on the amount <strong>of</strong> data on flows <strong>of</strong> rivers under study which<br />
are grouped by certain criteria.<br />
Simulation <strong>of</strong> hydrological series by natural water flow characteristics<br />
does not require any method to allow for the effect <strong>of</strong> a<br />
preceding value on the law whereby a subsequent one is distributed.<br />
Error is not accumulated in simulated series as they grow,<br />
On a examiné dans le rapport en question la technique de cons-,<br />
truction de longues séries hydrologiques 2 diktrìbùtion calculée par<br />
caractéristiques de l'écoulement annuel de bassins isolés, et non<br />
pas au moyen de capteurs de nombres occasionnels. C'est bien l'ana-<br />
lyse réunie de probabilités de valeurs annuelles moyennes de l'écou-<br />
lement par groupes de bassins (pas tout 2 fait homogJnes1, choisis<br />
suivant les estimations corrélatives determinées, qui sert de base à<br />
la construction de succession numériques. Les différents procédés<br />
mis en oeuvre permettent de tenir compte des élements statistiques<br />
principaux des distributions de départ temporeles. La longueur de t e<br />
lles séries est fonction du volume de l'écoulement des fleuves du<br />
monde, attirés au calcul et choisis selon les critères définis.<br />
En simulant les réalisations hydrologiques par caractéristiques<br />
naturelles de l'écoulement fluvial, point n'est besoin de recourir à<br />
une telle ou telle méthode de prise en considération de probabilités<br />
de la valeur précédente sur la loi de distrifiti'on de prohEY2litds<br />
de la valeu: suivante, Aucune atcumulation de l'erreur nia 12eu dans<br />
les séries a simuler au fur et a mesure du prolongement de celles-ci'.
2 94<br />
Variou8 ways to extend the initial hydrological data are<br />
used h water flow calculation and forecasting. Short time<br />
serie8 <strong>of</strong> hydrological observations <strong>of</strong> ten fail to give adequate<br />
c harac teristic 8 <strong>of</strong> river flow and ensure reliable calculations.<br />
Hydrological data are exbended by probabilistic techni-<br />
ques, among sbich the Monte-Carlo method ia the most widely<br />
U8ed. The esseqfe <strong>of</strong> the latter is that artificial curves <strong>of</strong><br />
probabilistic processes can be obtained by generation <strong>of</strong> random<br />
numbers distributed by a certûin law. Note that a model <strong>of</strong> the<br />
flow process thus obtained should have hundreds or thousands<br />
<strong>of</strong> terms to include all basic features <strong>of</strong> the process probabili-<br />
ty distribution f mtions. The applichtion <strong>of</strong> this technique<br />
for hydrological calculations was thoroughly developed by<br />
G.G.Svanidee [9J . The range <strong>of</strong> application <strong>of</strong> the Monte-Carlo<br />
insthod was considerably extended by other soviet researchers[2,6].<br />
This paper deals <strong>with</strong> construction <strong>of</strong> long hydrological<br />
series <strong>with</strong> discrete time by using annual flow dharacteristics<br />
rather than rarrlom number aensors.<br />
<strong>Water</strong> flow Q at a certain cross-section <strong>of</strong> a river is<br />
regarded as a function <strong>of</strong> time t. Eet be the number <strong>of</strong> ar-<br />
bitrary time instants t, .. m , t, for an arbitrary number oî<br />
basins x alia n values <strong>of</strong> flow. Any specified value can be<br />
expressed in terms <strong>of</strong> the probabiliby that it d1L not be ex-<br />
ceeded. Probability distribution func tions for non-excees <strong>of</strong><br />
annual flow values, mathematical expectation and other statis-<br />
tical characteristics <strong>of</strong> each series x are given as<br />
B,(t,* P, , ... t, Pn)* dere P i8 the probability distribu-<br />
tion density associated <strong>with</strong> the fumtion Fx.<br />
The approach consists in consecutive combination <strong>of</strong> river<br />
flow probability distributions for individual basins. in dohg<br />
so various techniques are employed to inClde basic statistical<br />
characteristics (such as mathematical expectation, coefficients<br />
variation, asymmetry aid correlation) <strong>of</strong> the initial time dist-<br />
ribUtiOM <strong>of</strong> the flow.<br />
Conditional probability distxibutions <strong>of</strong> a combined space<br />
am time sequerice are effectively used in *at is known in<br />
hydrology as the year-point- method in which effbiercy criteria<br />
for combination <strong>of</strong> time series have been developed and<br />
used in plotting a faired empirical distribution curve.<br />
Combined analysis m thods for incompletely homogeneous<br />
hydrolo&ical characteristics used in calculation <strong>of</strong> aiaximum<br />
flow hawe been developed br S.V.fulitsky and ?uí.B.bnkel' 181.<br />
In this case the theoretical scheme for the construction<br />
<strong>of</strong> a numerical sequence is a combined analysis <strong>of</strong> probabilities<br />
<strong>of</strong> mean annual flows that do not substantially vary over the<br />
period covered for groups <strong>of</strong> basins (incompletely homogeneous)
selected by certain correlation estimates.<br />
295<br />
Time series Oi river flow characteristics are grouped by<br />
values <strong>of</strong> the coefficients <strong>of</strong> correlation (r) betaen annual<br />
flows ob~erved and calculated for pabs <strong>of</strong> successive years.<br />
A certain relation between flows <strong>of</strong> Mfvidual years is established.<br />
The differences in correlation coefficients <strong>of</strong> river<br />
flows indthin a basin depend on the physical nnn gec,rapnical<br />
conditions &er which the flow vas furmå. When rivers are<br />
grouped by intra-series c osrelation indices, the physical and<br />
etatistical homogeneity <strong>of</strong> the flow series selected is to<br />
some extent alloued for.<br />
A group may izlude basins differing in the water content.<br />
Modular coefficients are employed to make flow indices <strong>of</strong> large<br />
and small basins conmeasurable.<br />
Three groups covering the r range from O through 0.45<br />
have been selected (Table I) <strong>with</strong> intra-series correlation as<br />
a criterion, Calculations for other values are equally possible,<br />
!Bible 1<br />
Rivers Grouped,<br />
by Averaging Intervals <strong>of</strong> Bhst Self-Correlation Coeff ic lents<br />
Averaged-<br />
values, r<br />
+0.10 +o. 25 +O.W<br />
The first group CO rises rivers whose flow intra-series<br />
correlation is Or r ~'3.220 and iarludes 40 basins, chbfly<br />
in Europe and North America, <strong>with</strong> coeff icients <strong>of</strong> variation<br />
F ranging from 0.20 to 0.60,<br />
The second group (+0.21 C r 5 +0,35) includes 45 qivers,<br />
chiefly in Ada and &8t Europe , <strong>with</strong> variation coefficients<br />
ranging from 0.10 to 0.40, i.e. below the range for the first<br />
group.<br />
The third group is characterized by coefficients <strong>of</strong> eor-<br />
relation between annual flows <strong>of</strong> successive years ranghg<br />
from 0.36 through 0.45 and ircludes 28 flow series <strong>with</strong> coefw<br />
ficients <strong>of</strong> variation from 0.20 to 0.40. The flow series in<br />
tius interval and duration, The latter varies from 40 to 150<br />
years.<br />
Over recent years the statistical analysis <strong>of</strong> correlation<br />
coefficients between neighboring terms <strong>of</strong> a series as a fu- tion <strong>of</strong> tinis intervals has revealed that %he de4pendeDC8 does<br />
exist in most cases 5,6] . Furthermore, studies [ 21 <strong>of</strong> inherent
296<br />
and random errors in calculating this coefficient by standard<br />
formulae show that the error8 may erneed 0.07. Values <strong>of</strong> first<br />
self-correlation coefficieubs r in grouping flow seriee are<br />
selected in a certain variation range , Table I.<br />
To prove or disprove interdependence <strong>of</strong> these series in<br />
each group, interseries-correlation coefficients R were calculated<br />
for 1921-1955. For some series, the comelation was<br />
found to be as low as iO.30. In order to meet the criteriw<br />
<strong>of</strong> indepeideme <strong>of</strong> samples, a hydro&ogicAl LIiqueme generated<br />
should consist <strong>of</strong> flow series from a certain grouping, the<br />
correlation coefficients <strong>of</strong> which are close to zero. This is<br />
one <strong>of</strong> the conditions for lack <strong>of</strong> simltaneity in flow variationa<br />
<strong>of</strong> rivers analysed in groups, which results in an illcrease<br />
<strong>of</strong> the overall data contained in combined hydrological series.<br />
It should be noted, however, that the application <strong>of</strong> nor-<br />
mal correlation techniques to flow variation etudies may pro-<br />
ve an improper practice because <strong>of</strong> possible no<strong>nl</strong>inear rela-<br />
tions. The depiidemes between values observed in initial hyd-<br />
rological series can be curvilinear. Therefore for some hyärolo-<br />
@cal series Cl 1 the initial characteristics <strong>of</strong>Qthad to be<br />
normalized.<br />
krmalized series thus obtained vm-e used to calculate<br />
correlation coefficients R. These -re compared <strong>with</strong> the coef-<br />
f icients obtainsd from actual flow characteristics. Formulae<br />
<strong>of</strong> normal correlation were used to find the proximity betwgen<br />
the associated correlation coefficients. This compromise can<br />
be justified by the lack <strong>of</strong> more refined techniques <strong>of</strong> estimati<br />
ing relations betaieen gamma-distributed random values. The am-<br />
lysis has shown that correlation coefficients obtained directly<br />
from series <strong>of</strong> observations and normalised series are close;<br />
for this reason first values <strong>of</strong> R were used in the calculatfoas.<br />
Flow series <strong>with</strong> inter-series correlation coefficients<br />
below 0.3, were tabulated h each group. These data lead to<br />
the assumption that relations between flow characteristics <strong>of</strong><br />
these basins are immaterial. !he averahed coefficients B and<br />
the standard values <strong>of</strong> the totali- <strong>of</strong> series for each group<br />
analysed are shown in Table 2.<br />
Table 2<br />
---_--------<br />
--_-- I<br />
Average Values <strong>of</strong> B and dR for the Groups <strong>of</strong> Rivers<br />
---<br />
-------- - ___- .-_- - ~<br />
>-- __-<br />
--.-<br />
-<br />
fiange <strong>of</strong> self-correlation coefficient variation<br />
--- I"_ -II _-_-_ - ---- --__ --------- --------<br />
O 5 r L +0.20 +0.21 5 r 5 +0.35 0.36LrC+O.45<br />
""_ . ----_-<br />
k2 0.129 0.134 0.157<br />
¿fi 0.062 O. 081 O. 076<br />
----__--------------_________II__ -<br />
_* .- . . ---- --- --_ - -- ----
297<br />
This table proves the absence <strong>of</strong> any substantial relation-<br />
ship betwen the flow series analysed, Now,in each group the<br />
flow series are combined in simulated sequ~11ce8. Thus from the<br />
first group (O L, r 6 +0.20) a sequerce <strong>of</strong> 841 terms m s formed,<br />
the second group 40.21 5 r5t0.35) gave a sequeme <strong>of</strong> 620 terms,<br />
and the third group (+0.365 r-L+0.45) yielded a sequerice <strong>of</strong><br />
530 terms. These flow characteristics are transformed using<br />
the coordinates <strong>of</strong> the selected type <strong>of</strong> distributions into the<br />
curves <strong>of</strong> the event probability security P. The ordinates <strong>of</strong><br />
securie cumes are computed wieh an allowme for coefficients<br />
<strong>of</strong> variation and asymmetry <strong>of</strong> each flow series. In this case<br />
the structure <strong>of</strong> the sequence <strong>of</strong> segueities comguted for the<br />
entire set <strong>of</strong> series is indeperdent <strong>of</strong> the flow variation and<br />
normal flow in individual basins. If flow series included in<br />
one sequeme are regarded as S&@pl0S <strong>of</strong> indepenient random va-<br />
lues, then the corresponding values <strong>of</strong> flow security are also<br />
i ndep e nde nt rand om value s.<br />
For each series x security curves were computed for taro<br />
types <strong>of</strong> distributions<br />
1. Values <strong>of</strong> securities in a tuee-pararnter Kritsky-<br />
&&e1 gamma-distribution P . This distribution was obtained<br />
b replm ing the variable x'%# the gama-distribution equation<br />
2'71. %e va iable is related to the initial value by the equa-<br />
lity Z E a r6 , where a and b are parameters to be deter-<br />
mined on the basis <strong>of</strong> experimrnial eviüeme (corresponding to<br />
C and C ). The equation <strong>of</strong> the distribution cume for y is<br />
ix this tase :<br />
y(x) = -- aa a8 b<br />
b ,<br />
f (4<br />
where a s and r(a) is the symbol <strong>of</strong> gamma-fulirtion.<br />
-k<br />
The ordinates <strong>of</strong> the security curve expressed by this<br />
equation are always positive when y = O and P = 10%. The shape<br />
behaviour <strong>of</strong> this distribution permits aqy relations betraeen<br />
a and b, i,e.between the variation coefficient Cv and the asymetry<br />
coefficient Cs<br />
cE3 (--- = I, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, ... 6 )<br />
Three-parameter gamm-distribution curves fit I@ 11 the<br />
flow series <strong>with</strong> high values <strong>of</strong> Cv.<br />
2. P, obtained from generalized curves proposed by<br />
Kaliain pahose studies substantiated the generality <strong>of</strong> the probabilitptheoretical<br />
schematics dereby various samples <strong>of</strong><br />
flow are formed1 41 . Using the formulae K = f (P,C,) ,<br />
%- and the flow data for many rivers, the depedemies<br />
K=%v<br />
I( S(Cv) , K5% = f (Cv> , etc. for annual and mximum flows were<br />
1%obtained<br />
separately for each value <strong>of</strong> secul$.ty (P=l%; P=5%, etc.
298<br />
The tables <strong>of</strong> ordfnates <strong>of</strong> generalized curves for distribution<br />
<strong>of</strong> annual flow esess probabilities were then compiled.<br />
3. Fapirical values <strong>of</strong> mcurities for the entire sequerce<br />
were obtained by the saression<br />
Pem = m<br />
-e-. qoos ,<br />
&tI<br />
where m is the point in a sequence <strong>of</strong> n numbers.<br />
Thus, me have two theoretical aqd one empifica1 distributions<br />
&ich make up the long hydrological series constructed.<br />
Bor lack ~î npace and large sizes <strong>of</strong> the tables, the values<br />
<strong>of</strong> simulated samplings cannot be shown this paper.<br />
Let us now proceed to comparison <strong>of</strong> simulated empifica1<br />
and theore tical distributions <strong>of</strong> securiQ probabilities.<br />
For a series <strong>of</strong> 841 ternis, the representativi <strong>of</strong> the<br />
security probability distributions obtairied mas es 3 mated for<br />
Pea (empirical), PLM (Kritsky-bnkel) and Paen (generalized)<br />
because a choice <strong>of</strong> the distribution curve type may considerably<br />
affect the distribution <strong>of</strong> flow values varyi- in the<br />
..<br />
probability <strong>of</strong> excess.<br />
The following versions <strong>of</strong> estimates -re consideredt<br />
1) Uniform quantile distribution <strong>of</strong> Pe,, PK-M, Pge, .<br />
2) Alternation <strong>of</strong> series <strong>of</strong> increased anfi decreased water<br />
contents in simulated series.<br />
3) Convergence <strong>of</strong> the distributions obtaiiigd <strong>with</strong> respect<br />
to standard deviation.<br />
4) Comparison <strong>of</strong> sampled spectra by the distribution types.<br />
The first estimace was to reveal the homogeneity <strong>of</strong> strutture<br />
ad uniformity <strong>of</strong> security distribution <strong>of</strong> simulated flow<br />
series. !The number <strong>of</strong> hits <strong>of</strong> security curves in distributions<br />
Pen, PK-BiI, Pgep ws compared in terms <strong>of</strong> arbitrary quantile<br />
security probability distributions <strong>with</strong> respect to a fixed<br />
quantile do not coim:i.de for the three types. In most cases,<br />
kïowver, the deviation from the average velue does not exceed<br />
10%. The greatest variations are associated dCii quantiles <strong>of</strong><br />
15-2O% security.<br />
The statistical mthod <strong>of</strong> serial tests 103 was used in<br />
the analgcsls <strong>of</strong> the probability <strong>of</strong> an event t periods <strong>of</strong> higher<br />
or lower wter content as against the normal one) by the types<br />
<strong>of</strong> distribution. In this method, for several. samples <strong>of</strong> 100<br />
terms each in this case, the number <strong>of</strong> years (elements) m, <strong>with</strong><br />
flow values above the average om ard % <strong>with</strong> values below theaverage<br />
ani! calculated. Elemsnts <strong>of</strong> the same kind bounded on<br />
both sides by elements <strong>of</strong> another kind form series <strong>of</strong> U.
299<br />
Lf the values <strong>of</strong> U and the mathematical expectation E differ<br />
substantially, then the no-radom nature <strong>of</strong> the event is pro-<br />
ved. In this case the number <strong>of</strong> series should be greater or<br />
smaller than E by a value exceeding 33, (dispersions) <strong>of</strong> the<br />
sample.<br />
With the probability <strong>of</strong> higher and lower mter content<br />
studied in this way, ma obtained the relations <strong>of</strong> series in-<br />
dices, expectation and dispersion which are given in Table 3.<br />
The simulated series were analysed by both the technique dec-<br />
cribed in th& pa er and the Monte+Darlo method applied to<br />
the Krìtsky-Menke? distribution curve.<br />
Table 3<br />
Serial Test Method Parameters for Different Types <strong>of</strong><br />
Becurity Distribution <strong>of</strong> a Simulated Sequeme <strong>of</strong> 841 Terms<br />
9<br />
41 8 405 w5 4û6<br />
?i! 423 43 6 43 6 435<br />
U 3w 370 3 67 371<br />
E 421 421 42 1 421<br />
D 14.5 44.4<br />
CI------------------------------..<br />
14.4 14.4<br />
. -- -L _. . ---_-u--------<br />
The numerical values <strong>of</strong> U ani E are seen to differ for ail<br />
the three typs <strong>of</strong> diskibution by more than 3D an&%imilar<br />
ratios. The qualitative indices obtaimd may prove, firstly,<br />
that the distribution <strong>of</strong> elements above or below the norm tn<br />
series analysed is not random anã, secondly, that the parameter<br />
values I%, , 9, U, E, D obtained for samples <strong>of</strong> 841 terms<br />
indicate uniform conditions for the event probability in all<br />
the distribution types analysed; in other words, we have essentially<br />
several representations <strong>of</strong> the sanie process.<br />
In estimating the representativity <strong>of</strong> the hydro10 'cal<br />
series obtained we analyse the convergence <strong>of</strong> eqlrica8Land<br />
theoretical securities for the entire series. This estimate<br />
was obtained from the r.m.s. deviation between the theoretical<br />
and empirical distributions <strong>of</strong> securities, in per cent, for<br />
various quankile intervals aad for the entire series. In all<br />
the intervals the r.m.6. deviation does not exceed 1.5.<br />
The security <strong>of</strong> securities curves <strong>of</strong> the simulated sequernes<br />
(Pig.1) obtaimd for distributions Pgen have a similar<br />
trend <strong>with</strong> oniy minor differences.
300<br />
On the whole, comparison <strong>of</strong> empirical and theoretical cur-<br />
ves for tne entire sequsnce proves the representativeness <strong>of</strong><br />
the hydrological sequence obtained.<br />
Spectral analysis proved useful in studying the structure<br />
<strong>of</strong> the simulated sequemes. For comparison <strong>of</strong> quantirbative<br />
indices, the initial iflormation was furnished by the same<br />
sample <strong>of</strong> 841 terms obtained for Various modifications <strong>of</strong><br />
annual flow distsibution. Mote that in calculation <strong>of</strong> spectral<br />
density sequences <strong>of</strong> securiw probability in per cent, were<br />
used. Computations were made for nonfeired aIid faired estimates<br />
<strong>of</strong> a spectrum using the eqression [3] I<br />
values <strong>of</strong> the self-correlation fumtion, HI - maximum<br />
where shift, sé ordinal number <strong>of</strong> the shift, K = 1,2, ... , m.<br />
'phis equation makes it possible to obtain a dispersion<br />
spectrum for each frequency bad as percentage <strong>of</strong> tho total<br />
dispersion <strong>of</strong> the time series under etudy. A fairea estimate<br />
<strong>of</strong> dispersion spectral denSity was obtained by using the Hanning<br />
fairing weight fu= tionr -<br />
i= o, I, 2, ... , m<br />
D1 = O<br />
- Big.2 represents plots <strong>of</strong> non-faired , S@), and faired,<br />
S(p), spectra computed for the 841 terms aad frequencies<br />
f = O 0.1, ... , 0.2 &. If the delay <strong>of</strong> m includes less<br />
than i- <strong>of</strong> the samp e (80 terms), the shift <strong>of</strong> estimates <strong>of</strong><br />
S(p), S(p) being small.<br />
Because the simulated series contain compositional space<br />
and time information on the flow, the spectrum <strong>of</strong> these series<br />
follow9 the pattern <strong>of</strong> white noise and is scattered among all<br />
f requemies.<br />
Fluctuations <strong>of</strong> S(p) and s(p) in individual samples can be<br />
found by computing the nean value <strong>of</strong> the spectrum, the dispersion<br />
ad the r.m.8. error when frequencies are changed. The<br />
latter charac teristic is computed from thsore tical spectrum<br />
for which is taken a sampled spectrum computed <strong>with</strong> the use<br />
<strong>of</strong> Table 4.<br />
Table 4<br />
Sampled Spec tra Estimates<br />
--c-_---_---------------------- - -L---._*_-_-_---------<br />
Non-f aired Baked<br />
IO. 48 10.00 10.45 10.80 10.00<br />
!%$ersion 5.81<br />
6.02 4.18 5.01 4.72<br />
%ba* 0.660 0.782 O 0.660 0.782 0
These estimates are evideme <strong>of</strong> homogeneous structures<br />
<strong>of</strong> the simulated sequences for various groupings by the m e s<br />
oî distributions.<br />
301<br />
The analysis leads to the coralusion that hydrological<br />
series constructed from natural flow characteristics contain<br />
a vast body information on combination and duration <strong>of</strong> periods<br />
differing in water content and may prove useful in estimating<br />
possible ranges <strong>of</strong> flow variations for certain rivers* The<br />
proposed assessmnt <strong>of</strong> laws governing hydrological variations<br />
may prove helpful in tackling various *ter industry problems.
302<br />
REFERENCES<br />
1. Alekseev, G.A. Ob'ektivq'e metoäy vyraklnivaniya i normali-<br />
zatdi c orrelyataionnykh myazey. Gidrometeoixdat ,<br />
Leningrad, 1971.<br />
2. Vodnoenergethheskiye raachyoty metodom Monte-Carlo.<br />
Ed. by Resnikovsky A.Sh. "Energiya" , Moscow,<br />
19690<br />
otts 7l<br />
3. Jenkins, %---<br />
G. Spectral Analysis and its Application.<br />
4. Halinin, G.P. Problemy glogalnoy gidrologii. Gidrometeo-<br />
iedat, Leningrad, 7968.<br />
5. Kalinin, G.P., Davydova, A. I. Pro~tramtvenno-meiaeMoy<br />
analiz tsiklichmsti atoka rek. Vestnik MGU, ser.<br />
Geographiya, No.4, 1967.<br />
6. Kilasoniya, A.I. IC voprosu vybsra nachala gidrologicheskogo<br />
goda pri vodokhozyastven4ykh i vodnoenergetioheskikh<br />
raschyotakh. Trudy GrmMIZ, XVIII, 1969.<br />
7. Eritsky, S.N., &&el, LF. Vybor krivykh raspredeleniya<br />
veroyatnostey dl raschyotov rechnogo stoka.<br />
IZV. AN SSSR, OTg No. 6, 1948.<br />
8. Kritsky, S.N., Unkel, M.F. O mtodike sovmestnogo analiza<br />
nabluàenig ea stokom gidrologicheskikh skhodnykh<br />
basseynov. Trudy GGI, Issue 180, Gldrometeoizdat,<br />
Leningrad, 1970.<br />
9. Svanidze, G.G. Osnovy raschyota regulirovaniya rechnogo<br />
stoka metodom &<strong>nl</strong>;e-Carlo. Metsniereba, Tbilisi,<br />
1964.<br />
10. Yanko, Y. Bdstematiko-statisticheakiye Tablitsi,<br />
Gosstroyizdat, Mosc OW, 1961
303
304<br />
200 - I<br />
1<br />
I<br />
I . - 7- :*u<br />
0.1 0.t 0.8 0.4 0.6<br />
I 1 I I I I ' m<br />
10 N) 30 40 bD 60 Po 80<br />
7 I I -<br />
Y i .<br />
Fig.2. Simulated flow sample spectra for a generalized cume:<br />
(a) non-faired spectrum S(p)i (b> faired spectrum i@),
"THE PREPARATION OF A DATA SET FOR HYDROLOGIC SYSTEM ANALYSIS"<br />
ABSTRACT<br />
M.J. Hamlin, B.Sc. D.I.C. M.ASCE. M.I.W.E.<br />
N.T. Kottegoda, B.Sc. Ph.D. M.I.C.E. M.I.W.E.<br />
The potential <strong>of</strong> a complex water resource system can <strong>of</strong>ten be<br />
determined o<strong>nl</strong>y by the construction <strong>of</strong> a mathematical model which is<br />
then used to simulate the operation <strong>of</strong> the system. Where flow data<br />
is inadequate the input data for the model may present the most<br />
challenging aspect <strong>of</strong> the design. The use <strong>of</strong> data generation techniques<br />
to supplement historic records to obtain a complete data set, pseudo-<br />
historic in character, provides a possible solution. Totally synthetic<br />
data sets, based o<strong>nl</strong>y on the statistics <strong>of</strong> existing flow data, can be<br />
produced to provide an alternative approach. The operation <strong>of</strong> the<br />
computed model must be based on a relevant time unit. In most schemes<br />
studied in the United Kingdom decisions need to be taken daily and it<br />
is therefore appropiate for the data to be in daily form. In spite <strong>of</strong><br />
considerable research effort methods for the generation <strong>of</strong> sequences<br />
<strong>of</strong> daily records are still inadequate and pentads have been commo<strong>nl</strong>y<br />
used. These represent the aggregated flows over a five day period and<br />
are used for generation purposes. The five daily totals are subsequently<br />
sub-divided to give daily flow values.<br />
RES UME<br />
On peut souvent déterminer le potentiel d'un système complexe<br />
de ressources en eau en se contentant de construire et d'utiliser un<br />
modèle mathématique de simulation. Quand les données sur les apports<br />
sont insuffisantes, l'établissement des données d'entrées peut repré-<br />
senter l'aspect le plus ardu du calcul. L'emploi des techniques de<br />
génération de données pour suppléer aux observations historiques et<br />
obtenir une série de données complète, méthode de caractère pseudo-<br />
historique, fournit une solution possible. Des series totalement syn-<br />
thétiques établies uniquement à partir de la statistique des données<br />
existantes, peuvent être elaborées et fournir une autre solution. Le<br />
fonctionnement du modèle exige le choix d'une unité de temps appropriée.<br />
Dans la plupart des cas étudiés dans le Royaume Uni, des décisions<br />
doivent être prises journellement; il convient donc que les données<br />
soient journalières. Malgré un effort de recherche considérable, les<br />
méthodes destinées à créer des séries d'observations journalières<br />
restent insuffisantes et on doit fréquemment utiliser des données<br />
pentadaires. On génère ainsi des écoulements pentadaires que l'on<br />
subdivise ensuite pour obtenir des valeurs journalières.
306<br />
Introduction<br />
For the development <strong>of</strong> the potential resources <strong>of</strong> the Wye and<br />
Severn river basins it is necessary to investigate both the design <strong>of</strong><br />
individual components <strong>of</strong> the system and the operation <strong>of</strong> these individual<br />
componenils in an integrated system. The operational study requires the<br />
construction <strong>of</strong> a complex simulation model.<br />
Thig paper describes o<strong>nl</strong>y one<br />
aspect <strong>of</strong> the problem namely the provision <strong>of</strong> a set <strong>of</strong> compatible data as<br />
input to the simulation model. The work was undertaken for the <strong>Water</strong><br />
<strong>Resources</strong> Board who were! responsible for the main operational study.<br />
Theoretically a multisite generation model represents the most<br />
attractive solution. In practice for daily or even five daily flows this<br />
presents problems for which there are no immediate solutions and alternative<br />
possibilities had to be sought. The first <strong>of</strong> these involves the use <strong>of</strong><br />
historic and pseudo historic flow records to build up a set <strong>of</strong> data for each<br />
<strong>of</strong> the nodal points <strong>of</strong> the system and this was the course which was adopted.<br />
A second possibility is the generation <strong>of</strong> wholly synthetic data based on the<br />
statistics <strong>of</strong> existing gauging stations where a structure is created <strong>of</strong><br />
primary and secondary sites which are linked using a standard bi-variate model.<br />
The choice <strong>of</strong> time unit needs considerable care and units <strong>of</strong> five<br />
days were agreed as being appropriate. However these tend to over estimate<br />
the resources and for a detailed consideration <strong>of</strong> critical periods it is<br />
necessary to sub-divide these into five daily values preserving, in as far as<br />
is possible,,all the relevant statistics <strong>of</strong> the daily time series.<br />
The Physical System<br />
A diagramatic sketch <strong>of</strong> the two river basins is shown in figure 1.<br />
Both-rivers rise in mid Wales and flow South into the Bristol Channel. They<br />
are both used for water supply purposes but there are substantial untapped<br />
resources and the possibilities <strong>of</strong> inter-basin transfers both between the<br />
Wye and Severn but more importantly from the Severn towards South East<br />
England are <strong>of</strong> considerable national interest. In the first instance the<br />
mathematical model was to be operated using data for the 38 years from<br />
1932-1969 inclusive. These contain a number <strong>of</strong> well known low flow sequences<br />
and in particular the periods 193314 and 1949. For this purpose it was<br />
necessary to produce compatible sets <strong>of</strong> data for all the nodal points in the<br />
system. Some <strong>of</strong> this data was available from historical records for the full<br />
period. At other points o<strong>nl</strong>y partial records were available and there were<br />
a number <strong>of</strong> points devoid <strong>of</strong> any flow records. The sketch identifies a number<br />
<strong>of</strong> typical points <strong>with</strong>in the system although these do not represent the total<br />
number for which data was obtained. The points are classified from A to F<br />
as follows.<br />
A)<br />
Records at these stations had been collected for a number <strong>of</strong> years and<br />
existed for the full period 1932-1969.
B) Gauged records exist for the full period 1932-1969 but required<br />
adjustment to allow for the effect <strong>of</strong> reservoirs in upland sub-<br />
catchments.<br />
C)<br />
Records exist for o<strong>nl</strong>y part <strong>of</strong> the period and need infilling to<br />
complete the 1932-1969 sequence.<br />
307<br />
D) Gauged records exist for o<strong>nl</strong>y part <strong>of</strong> the period and require both<br />
infilling and adjustment to allow for reservoirs in the upland subcatchments.<br />
E) No records are available for these catchments but they can be deduced<br />
from neighbouring catchments using the relationship<br />
where % and A are the areas <strong>of</strong> catchments E and A<br />
A<br />
respectively I<br />
and RIE and RIA are the effective rainfalls <strong>of</strong><br />
catchments E and A respectively<br />
This relationship is purely deterministic and suffers from lack <strong>of</strong> a<br />
stochastic component. However since the stochastic component cannot<br />
be evaluated there are no means for including it.<br />
F) No record is available for this catchment and flow values can o<strong>nl</strong>y be<br />
deduced from upstream catchments using the following relationship<br />
is the total catchment area down to point F<br />
Al, A2, A are the areas down to points, 1,<br />
2 and 3 respectively<br />
RIF is the effective rainfall on Area AF<br />
RI1, RI2, RI3 are the effective rainfalls on Areas<br />
Al, A2 and A respectively<br />
3<br />
Q,, Q2, Q, are the flows at points, 1, 2 and 3 respectively<br />
“19 n are the times <strong>of</strong> travel from points 1, 2 and 3<br />
2’ “3 to point F respectively.<br />
The adjustments necessary to allow for reservoirs in the upland<br />
sub-catchments were calculated using a simple accounting technique which made
308<br />
allowance for the flow times from reservoir to the nodal point. The choice<br />
<strong>of</strong> generation model and method <strong>of</strong> infilling data required considerably more<br />
attention.<br />
The bivariate model<br />
As all records extend up to December 1969, bivariate synthesis was<br />
used to infill the earlier parts <strong>of</strong> records where this was necessary1. For<br />
this purpose pentad data at a satellite station, S, where the flow record is<br />
short is linked to the data at a key station, Ky which has a long and<br />
reliable record,through a bivariate model. If such a model is to be<br />
acceptable statistically it should maintain the coefficient <strong>of</strong> cross<br />
correlation, rks, between the stations, the lag one serial correlation<br />
coefficients, rk and rs <strong>of</strong> the two stations and the five day seasonal means<br />
Mkj+l and Msj+l, and seasonal standard deviations, Skj+l and SSj+ly at the two<br />
stationS.in season j+i, 1 i j 5 73, corresponding to time t+i. A bivariate<br />
model can be expressed by<br />
In this particular application as synthesized data was required at<br />
station S o<strong>nl</strong>y, Kt+l represents the historical flow at station K at time t+l<br />
in pentad units and St+l represents the concurrent synthetic flow at station<br />
S <strong>with</strong> St as its antecedent value. The variab)e Xt+l at time t+l is given by<br />
1<br />
xt+l = (B/Ssj) (St - Ms.) + i1 (1 - B2) ........................... .(2)<br />
3 t+l<br />
where qt+l is a series <strong>of</strong> non-autocorrelated numbers <strong>with</strong> zero mean and unit<br />
variance and a distribution which is estimated from the distribution <strong>of</strong> the<br />
historical data at the satellite station, S. As shown by Fiering2, the three<br />
correlation coefficients, rk, rs, rks, should be incorporated in the constant<br />
B as follows:-<br />
2 -1<br />
B = (1 - rks) (rs - rk Xs2) ...................................... .(3)<br />
In the first instance the Clywedog data at Llanidloes (station 1 in<br />
Table 1) was extended using the bivariate model and the data from the Elan<br />
Valley Key station. The cross correlation coefficient is 0.89 and it was<br />
found that a three parametric gamma distribution (Pearson type 3) fits the<br />
Clywedog data. These parameters were estimated and read into the main program.<br />
When evaluating reservoir storages from synthetic data at the<br />
satellite station certain defects in the model were found. A visual comparison<br />
<strong>of</strong> concurrent historic flows at the two stations in dry years such as 1959<br />
showed similarities in the low flows which were not reproduced by the<br />
bivariate model in its original form. This discrepancy was observed in the
pattern <strong>of</strong> low flows in the synthetic data prior to 1959,e.&,in the critical<br />
dry period <strong>of</strong> 1933 and 1934. In Fig 2 a comparison is made between 6 years <strong>of</strong><br />
historical data at a Key Station, Kt, and concurrent data at a satellite<br />
station, St, which is partly historical (years 4, 5 and U) and partly<br />
synthesised (years 1, 2 and 3) <strong>with</strong>out adjustment. The patterns <strong>of</strong> concurrent<br />
sets <strong>of</strong> high flows are random in both parts but the long runs <strong>of</strong> low flows<br />
in historical dry years were not maintained inathe synthesised data. In a<br />
separate analysis seasonal values <strong>of</strong> serial correlation were computed but no<br />
significant differences were found. This may be attributed to the fact that<br />
in this climatological zone the times <strong>of</strong> commencement <strong>of</strong> the dry and wet<br />
seasons and the lengths <strong>of</strong> seasons are highly stochastic variables.<br />
However, it nas found that when the flows are below a certain<br />
threshold value?defined <strong>with</strong> respect to the data at the key station, which is<br />
TT1 in Fig 2, the standardized values <strong>of</strong> flows at the two stations are<br />
highly correlated so that these are nearly equal. The level TT1 was found by<br />
trial and error and the data generation was repeated <strong>with</strong> the new criterion<br />
that when the flow in the key station is below the threshold value, the<br />
standardized flows at both stations are equal or alternatively they are<br />
different by a very small random component.<br />
A further refinement was included to establish a recession curve on<br />
runs <strong>of</strong> low flows. This was estimated empirically and an average value was<br />
read into the program so that the droughts just resemble the historical<br />
droughts. An examination <strong>of</strong> the adjusted synthesised data showed that<br />
differences in concurrent low flows such as those illustrated in Fig 2 were<br />
eliminated.<br />
Choice <strong>of</strong> probability distribution<br />
309<br />
In studies dealing <strong>with</strong> extreme flows and the persistence <strong>of</strong> high or<br />
low flows the probability distribution <strong>of</strong> the data is fundamental and except in<br />
the case <strong>of</strong> certain annual series the distributions <strong>of</strong> historical data are<br />
significantly different from the Gaussian or normal type. This is because the<br />
distribution <strong>of</strong> river flows in a historical sample is bounded by zero or a<br />
positive value at its left extremity and has a long tail on the side <strong>of</strong><br />
increasing flows.<br />
For this reason, the distributions are said to be positively<br />
skewed. Furthermore, the coefficient <strong>of</strong> skewness tends to increase inversely<br />
<strong>with</strong> the time unit on which the series <strong>of</strong> data is based, which means that the<br />
skewness in pentad data is more than,, in, say, monthly data.<br />
Kottegoda3 has shown that the incorporation <strong>of</strong> a gamma distribution<br />
in a monthly data generation model could yield realistic flow sequences <strong>of</strong><br />
synthetic data. In particular, reservoir storage requirements evaluated from<br />
some <strong>of</strong> these sequences surpass that from the historical records. In the case<br />
<strong>of</strong> pentad data, a wider range <strong>of</strong> distributions to include Pearson's Type I,<br />
-111 and VI functions are necessary in order to model the empirical<br />
distributions4.
310<br />
The underlying generating process in the bivariate model used in<br />
this study is autoregressive <strong>of</strong> the type<br />
k 1<br />
xt = -1 a.X t-j + nt (1 - R2) ...................................... (4)<br />
J -1<br />
in which Xt, an autocorrelated cycle-free seriespand nt, a random series,<br />
have zero mean, unit variance and non-identical distributions, aj are the<br />
autoregressive parameters, k is the order <strong>of</strong> the process, R is the coefficient<br />
<strong>of</strong> multiple correlation and t is a point on the time scale.<br />
In an unpublished study,a comparison is made between crossing and<br />
other properties in historical pentad data and data synthesised using an<br />
autoregressive model and other models <strong>of</strong> recent origin in all <strong>of</strong> which the<br />
skewness in the random component, rit, is varied. The crossing properties <strong>of</strong><br />
particular interest in hydrology are shown in Fig 3. A sequence <strong>of</strong> 5 day<br />
river flows, R, which varies <strong>with</strong> time t is intersected at two levels, viz.,<br />
RU, an upcrossing level above which the flow is higher than the mean flow<br />
and RD, a downcrossing level below which the flow is lower than the mean.<br />
Because <strong>with</strong> increasing time R rises above the level Ru at 4 points, there<br />
are 4 upcrossings <strong>with</strong> respect to Ru. Similarly there are 2 downcrossings<br />
<strong>with</strong> respect to RD. The mean length <strong>of</strong> the horizontal bases <strong>of</strong> the 4 shaded<br />
areas above the Ru line is called the mean surplus run length. The total<br />
area <strong>of</strong> the shaded parts or sums <strong>of</strong> ordinates <strong>with</strong>in them is the total<br />
surplus run sum.<br />
In the same way the mean length <strong>of</strong> the intercepts at the<br />
RD level is the mean deficit run length and the total area below the RD level<br />
is the total deficit run sum.<br />
The crossing properties <strong>of</strong> historical pentad data <strong>of</strong> the river Wye<br />
at Rhyader and synthesised data based on an autoregressive model are shown<br />
in Fig 4. For this analysis the 33 year historical record is divided into<br />
3 equal samples <strong>of</strong> 11 years so that sampling variations, that are commo<strong>nl</strong>y<br />
found in data <strong>of</strong> this type could be seen.<br />
The properties <strong>of</strong> Synthesised data<br />
are based on the means <strong>of</strong> results from ten 11 year non-historical sequences.<br />
If a Gaussian distribution is used in the model the numbers <strong>of</strong> downcrossings<br />
are far in excess <strong>of</strong> the numbers expected from the historical data. The<br />
ratio <strong>of</strong> skewness applied to the nt series to that estimated from the<br />
historical data ought to be between 1.0 and 2.0 if a realistic number <strong>of</strong><br />
downcrossings is to be obtained. A further increase in skewness results in an<br />
undesirable reduction in downcrossings. The necessity <strong>of</strong> providing f r<br />
greater skewness in the nt series than in the historical data was shown by<br />
Thomas and Fiering5 , who investigated the storage-yield relationship.<br />
approximation to the optimum skewness as obtained by analysing the independent<br />
residuals, Zt, where<br />
k<br />
Zt = Xt -j=l I: Xt-j .................................................... (5)<br />
3,4<br />
has been shown in other studies<br />
An
Another point in favour <strong>of</strong> using the appropriate value <strong>of</strong> skewness<br />
is the large number <strong>of</strong> negative values generated when the skewness is too low<br />
as is the case if the normal distribution is used. On the other :-:A Li che<br />
skewness applied is excessive, not o<strong>nl</strong>y ari. Fcg-tive values totally eliminated<br />
but the lowest flows are too high as can be seen in the top left hand diagram<br />
in Fig 4. In addition the numbers <strong>of</strong> downcrossings at various levels are<br />
much fewer than those in the historical records.<br />
31 1<br />
The deficit run lengths and run sums are also shown to be dependent<br />
on the skewness but when compared to the numbers <strong>of</strong> downcrossings, the change<br />
<strong>with</strong> respect to skewness is in the opposite manner. With regard to upcrossings<br />
at levels above 50 mms., an increase in skewness tends to 'correct' the<br />
synthesizeddata but more skewness is required than for the low flows. This<br />
may be achieved by incorporating two distributions in the model, one for high<br />
flows and the other for low flows6.<br />
There seems to be no basic difference in the results if.the underlying<br />
model is changed from the autoregressive type. Skewness is the more<br />
important criterion. This is generally true <strong>of</strong> all pentad flow series from<br />
this climatological zone. Full results will be published in the near future.<br />
Infilling <strong>of</strong> data<br />
'<br />
The ten stations at which pentad data was extended are listed in<br />
Table 1. The number <strong>of</strong> years <strong>of</strong> synthesised data range from 5 to 29 years.<br />
The two key stations used in the synthesis are given. In certain cases the<br />
choice <strong>of</strong> key station for the synthesis is obvious because <strong>of</strong> close proximity,<br />
e.g., the Wye at ñhyader and Elan at Caban Coch. In other cases, the key<br />
station was selected on the basis <strong>of</strong> the best cross correlation coefficient.<br />
The type <strong>of</strong> distribution adopted was ascertained from a preliminary programme<br />
and it is seen from the table that Pearson's Type 3 or 1 functions provide a<br />
good fit to the data. The best fitting distribution is determined by the<br />
Kolmogorov-Smirnov two sample tests between synthesised and historical data<br />
at the satellite stations. The cross correlation coefficien.ts between<br />
concurrent records at the key stations and satellite stations range from 0.79<br />
to 0.96 for the historical periods at the satellite stations. Comparative<br />
values were obtained in respect <strong>of</strong> the synthesised data at the satellite<br />
stations and concurrent historical data at the key stations. The table also<br />
indicates that the lag one serial correlation coefficient is naintained by<br />
the model.<br />
The flow diagram in Fig 5 shows the basic structure <strong>of</strong> the programe<br />
"Two station 5 Daily" which was used for the infilling <strong>of</strong> the pentad data at<br />
the ten stations. The programme contains twelve subroutines. Subroutine Fxy<br />
ascertains the threshold value, below which it is desirable to incorporate<br />
higher cross correlation in the standardised data in order to maintain<br />
realistic low flow sequences in the synthesised data.
312<br />
Subdivision to daily data<br />
Any system which is subject to daily changesin the operating<br />
strategy must have daily inputs. Initial studies can be undertaken using<br />
sets <strong>of</strong> data having a pentad or monthly time unit but ultimately this time<br />
unit has to be reduced.<br />
The method used was developed by Green7, a Ph.D student at the<br />
University <strong>of</strong> Birmingham, who was interested in a river pollution model for<br />
which daily river flow data was essential. Pentad data is broken down into<br />
daily flows by interpolation and to the interpolated values is added an error<br />
term whose purpose is to maintain the statistical characteristics <strong>of</strong> the<br />
actual daily flow data. The long term characteristics including floods and<br />
drought sequences are preserved in the five daily model.<br />
The synthesis is carried out in two stages. Actual daily data is<br />
accumulated into five-day averages which are then subdivided into synthetic<br />
daily values. The synthetic values are compared <strong>with</strong> the actual daily values<br />
so that the success <strong>of</strong> the parameters used in the process and <strong>of</strong> the process<br />
itself can be measured. Once the composition <strong>of</strong> the error term can be<br />
adequately described the synthetic five-day averages are broken down to yield<br />
synthetic daily flows.<br />
Alternative data sets<br />
The use <strong>of</strong> an historic sequence <strong>of</strong> data enables the system to be<br />
operated so that a whole range <strong>of</strong> possible planning decisions can be<br />
investigated. Each plan is compared against alternative plans based on the<br />
same set <strong>of</strong> input data. When an optimum plan has been identified it is<br />
desirable that the operational decisions and their consequences should be<br />
tested agai.nst other possible sequences <strong>of</strong> input data. The historic data can<br />
o<strong>nl</strong>y be used to investigate what would have happened in the past. Since the<br />
flows will never be repeated in an identical sequence there is no possibility<br />
<strong>of</strong> the same set <strong>of</strong> decisions occurring in the future.<br />
For this purpose it is proposed that a number <strong>of</strong> synthetic flow<br />
records should be produced. These will consist <strong>of</strong> compatible sets <strong>of</strong> data<br />
for the two major stations in the system namely Bewdley and Elan Valley.<br />
When these have been prepared, data at the other existing nodal points can be<br />
obtained using the basic statistics given in Table 1.<br />
Conclusion<br />
The procedure outlined in this paper shows how water resource systems<br />
may be designed in spite <strong>of</strong> the inadequacy <strong>of</strong> historic flow records. An<br />
extension <strong>of</strong> the method allows for wholly synthetic sets <strong>of</strong> data to be<br />
prepared so that the future effect <strong>of</strong> possible flow sequences can be studied.<br />
It is an essential feature <strong>of</strong> these synthetic sets that whilst on the one hand
they reproduce the statistics <strong>of</strong> the historic data they also, on the other<br />
band, contain sequences <strong>of</strong> rare events which are not disclosed in the<br />
original record.<br />
Acknowledgements<br />
The authors wish to acknowledge the,financial assistance and<br />
encouragement <strong>of</strong> the <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Board and also <strong>of</strong> their colleague<br />
Dr. Kelway and Mrs. Ross who yere:responsible for the major task <strong>of</strong> data<br />
handling.<br />
References<br />
1.<br />
2.<br />
3.<br />
4.<br />
5.<br />
6.<br />
7.<br />
Hamlin, M.J. and Kottegoda, N.T., (1971) "Extending the record <strong>of</strong> the<br />
Teme", Jour. <strong>Hydrology</strong> 12, pp 100-116.<br />
Fiering, M.B., (1964) "Multivariate technique for synthetic hydrology"<br />
Jour. ASCE, 90, No HY5, pp 43-60.<br />
Kottegoda, N.T., (1970) "Statistical methods <strong>of</strong> river flow synthesis<br />
for water resources assessment". Proc. Inst. Civ. Engrs., Supplement<br />
(xviii) , Paper 7339s.<br />
Kottegoda, N.T., (1972) "Stochastic five daily stream 'flow model",<br />
Jour. ASCE, 98, HY5, pp 1469-1485.<br />
313<br />
Thomas, H.A. dr. and Fiering, M.B., (1963) "The nature <strong>of</strong> the storage-<br />
yield relationship", Operations Research in <strong>Water</strong> Quality Management,<br />
Chapter 1 <strong>of</strong> Report <strong>of</strong> the Harvard <strong>Resources</strong> Group to the U.S. Pub. Health<br />
Service, Cambridge, Mass.<br />
Kottegoda, N.T., (1972) "Flood evaluation - can stochastic models provide<br />
an answer?" Int. Symp. on Uncertainties in Hydrologic and <strong>Water</strong> Resource<br />
Systems, Tucson, Arizona.<br />
Green, N.M., (1973) "A synthetic model for daily streamflow", Jour. <strong>of</strong><br />
Hydrol, (in press).
314
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[EVALUATE HARMONIC FITTED MEANS AND STD. DEVS. Subroutine Frier P'<br />
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IREAD DATA AT SATELLITE STATION 1<br />
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~- __.<br />
TATION I<br />
t<br />
[COMPUTE SERIAL CORRELOGRAM OF RAW DATA Subroutine Correl<br />
+ 4<br />
ICOMPUTE SKEWNESS COEFFICIENTS OF FIVE<br />
[COMPUTE CROSS CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS. Subroutine Sat I<br />
t<br />
[FIND RUNS BELOW AND ABOVE MEAN. Subroutine Runs I<br />
t<br />
[OPTIONAL - STALL ANALYSIS ON HISTORICAL DATA. Subroutine Stall 1<br />
[OPTIONAL - DURATION ANALYSIS. HISTORICAL. Subroutine Dur<br />
GENERATE & TRANSFORM RANDOM NUMBERS TO PEARSON TYPE OR LOGNORMAL<br />
CHI SQUARE TEST Subroutine Rannor<br />
IDURATION ANALYSIS ON HISTORICAL AND SYNTHESIZED DATA. Subroutine Dur. 1<br />
1<br />
t<br />
t '\<br />
t<br />
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GENERATE DATA USING CONCURRENT DATA AT KEY STN. SET THRESHOLD VALUE<br />
FOR REALISTIC LOWFLOWS.. Subroutine f XY<br />
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COMPUTE MEANS, STD. DEVS., SKEW COEFFICIENTS OF SYNTHESIZED DATA.<br />
FIND HIGHEST AND LOWEST VALUES. Subroutine Percen.<br />
t<br />
IPUNCH CARD AND LINEPRINTED OUTPUT OF SYNTHESIZED DATA I<br />
b<br />
[ CO>íF'üTE CROSS CORRELATION COEFF. OF SYbTHECIZED AND M W DATA. Subroutine Sat11<br />
[OPTIONAL - STALL ANALYSIS ON SYNTHESIZED DATA. Subroutine Stall<br />
ISERIAL CORRELOGRAM OF SYKTHESIZED DATA. Subroutine Correl<br />
t<br />
[COMPARE RUNS IN SYNTHESIZED AND HISTORICAL DATA. Subroutine Runs<br />
I<br />
1<br />
IKOLMOGOROV-SMIRNOV TWO SAMPLE TEST OF SYNTHESIZED AND HISTORICAL DATA.<br />
I Subroutine Smir<br />
+<br />
I<br />
'I<br />
I<br />
1<br />
*r
POTENTIAL APPLICATION OF BAYESIAN TECHNIQUES FOR PARAMETER<br />
ESTIMATION WITH LIMITED DATA<br />
ABSTRACT<br />
Roberto L. Lenton, John C. Schaake Jr.<br />
and Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe<br />
Department <strong>of</strong> Civil Engineering<br />
Massachusetts Institdte <strong>of</strong> Technology<br />
The use <strong>of</strong> Bayesian Techniques for parameter estimation can<br />
potentially improve the available limited hydrologic data by taking<br />
into account not o<strong>nl</strong>y the information contained in the historical<br />
sample, but also all the information coming from other sources, both<br />
objective and subjective. At the same time, project economics can be<br />
considered by the use <strong>of</strong> a loss function which specifies the serious<br />
ness <strong>of</strong> choosing an estimate which is not the true one. For example,<br />
these techniques can be applied to the estimation <strong>of</strong> the parameters<br />
<strong>of</strong> a first order autoregressive model. Moreover, if the hydrologist<br />
is willing to make certain simplifying assumptions and limit his pro<br />
blem to the estimation <strong>of</strong> o<strong>nl</strong>y the autocorrelation coefficient, then<br />
comparatively simple estimators result. The comparison between Bayes<br />
and Classical estimators for p on the basis <strong>of</strong> the risk function and<br />
the expected risk shows that the Bayes estimator is considerably mo-<br />
re advantageous, especially when the sample is <strong>of</strong> a limited duration.<br />
RESUMEN<br />
La utilización de técnicas Bayesianas para la estimación de<br />
parámetros puede mejorar la informacibn limStada existente, aï tener<br />
en cuenta no sólo la información contenida en la muestra histórica<br />
sino también toda la información proveniente de otras fuentes tanto<br />
objetivas como subjetivas, A la vez, se pueden considerar los aspec-<br />
tos económicos mediante la utilización de una función de pérdidas<br />
que especifica la seriedad de escojer un esti’mado que no es el verda<br />
dero. Por ejemplo, se pueden utilizar estas têcnicas para la estima-<br />
ci6n de los parámetros de un modelo autoregresivo de primer orden.<br />
Mas afin, si el hidrólogo está dispuesto a .realizar ciertos supuestos<br />
simplificadores, y a limitar su problema a la estimación del coefi-<br />
ciente de autocorrelación solamente, entonces se pueden obtener esti<br />
madores relativamente simples. La comparación entre los estimadores<br />
Bayesianos y clbsicos para el parametro p, en Base a la función de<br />
riesgo y al valor esperado del riesgo, demuestra que el estimador Ba<br />
yesiano presenta considerables ventajas, especialmente cuando la mues<br />
tra es de una duración limitada.
322<br />
INTRODUCTION<br />
Various models have been proposed in the past for modelling the<br />
stochastic nature <strong>of</strong> the hydrologic processes; the purpose <strong>of</strong> using these<br />
models has been to aid in making better investment and management decisions<br />
regarding <strong>Water</strong> Resource projects.<br />
Two factors are decisive in the choice <strong>of</strong> a model: the available in-<br />
formation and the problem to be solved. Once the model has been chosen, how-<br />
ever, these two factors must continue to be considered. The o<strong>nl</strong>y control the<br />
hydrologist has over his model is in the estimation <strong>of</strong> its parameters. Hence<br />
the estimation technique should both use the%vailable information in the<br />
most efficient way, and in some manner take into account the problem at hand,<br />
Unfortunately, the classical methods <strong>of</strong> estimation do neither, and in this con-<br />
text have two important defects:<br />
1. They can o<strong>nl</strong>y take into account the information contained in the<br />
historical sample. Evidently the hydrologist is limiting himself by not in-<br />
troducing information from other sources which could reduce the uncertainties<br />
<strong>of</strong> estimation.<br />
2. They produce values that are independent <strong>of</strong> the economic consequences<br />
<strong>of</strong> erroneous estimates. It appears evident that it would be more rational<br />
to assess the opportunity losses to be undergone by estimating a parameter<br />
erroneously, and then use as a criterion for estimation the minimization <strong>of</strong><br />
those expected opportunity losses.<br />
Bayes Theorem seems to provide a framework for approaching the problems<br />
that have been indicated. The first point is taken into account by providing<br />
an "a priori" distribution on the parameter <strong>of</strong> interest. This prior<br />
distribution encompasses all infomation that is not in the historical sample,<br />
providing an assessment <strong>of</strong> both the most likely values and the degree <strong>of</strong> uncertainty<br />
<strong>of</strong> the parameter in question. The prior information enters the<br />
estimation procedure via Bayes Theorem, which expresses simply that<br />
where<br />
P (Om a p (O) p (Y/@) (1)<br />
Y = Vector <strong>of</strong> sample observations<br />
O = Parameter<br />
p(O/Y) = "Posterior" pdf <strong>of</strong> O I given Y<br />
p(O) = Prior pdf <strong>of</strong> O<br />
p(Y/O) = Likelihood function for the parameter O .<br />
The posterior pdf now replaces the likelihood function as the means<br />
for making inferences about the parameter, and as a means for taking into<br />
account the second problem that was noted - i.e., the economic consequences<br />
<strong>of</strong> erroneous estimates.<br />
There are iïitroduced by means <strong>of</strong> a loss function R (O,@), which specifies<br />
the opportunity loss which is undergqne when O, the true value <strong>of</strong> the<br />
parameter, is erroneously estimated as O . Hence the Bayesian criterion<br />
A
consists <strong>of</strong> choosing the value<br />
losses :<br />
or<br />
o =<br />
A h<br />
h<br />
0 that minimizes the expected opportunity<br />
min [a(@,@)] (2)<br />
o<br />
6 = min a(;,@) p (@/Y) do<br />
u n<br />
where fi is the region <strong>of</strong> the parameter 0 .<br />
(3)<br />
323<br />
Since it is evident that the Bayes approach depends rather heavily<br />
on two factors, the prior distribution and the loss function, these two points<br />
will be discussed below in greater detail.<br />
THE PRIOR INFORMATION<br />
If the prior pdf is to adequately represent all information other<br />
than that contained in the sample, it must be assessed <strong>with</strong> great care. The<br />
first question that must be answered is the source <strong>of</strong> ,this non-sample infor-<br />
mation.<br />
One reasonable source <strong>of</strong> information could be a collection <strong>of</strong> past<br />
records from other river basins on the value <strong>of</strong> the parameter <strong>of</strong> interest.<br />
The analysis can be performed on the frequency histogram <strong>of</strong> observed values,<br />
by fitting a known distributional form to it. This, <strong>of</strong> course, is o<strong>nl</strong>y valid<br />
for non-dimensional parameters (such as the coefficient <strong>of</strong> variation or the<br />
first order autocorrelation coefficient), the basic assumption being that<br />
there are physical reasons which tend to make some values <strong>of</strong> the parameter<br />
more likely than others, as reflected in the collection <strong>of</strong> records. As a<br />
first approximation, the hydrologist could analyze world-wide data; if he<br />
is not satisfied, he could regionalize this information or classify it, taking<br />
into account o<strong>nl</strong>y rivers <strong>of</strong> similar characteristics to the one he is studying.<br />
Another source <strong>of</strong> information could be the analysis <strong>of</strong> physical cha-<br />
racteristics <strong>of</strong> river basins which are related to the parameter <strong>of</strong> interest.<br />
By regression on these characteristics, a measure <strong>of</strong> the mean and variance<br />
<strong>of</strong> the parameter can be obtained, and a probability distribution fitted to<br />
it. This is the approach used by Wood (1973), in another paper presented at<br />
this conference,to derive prior information on exceedance flows. It also<br />
might be possible to derive a prior distribution on the basis <strong>of</strong> theoretical<br />
considerations if the relationship between the parameter and the physical<br />
characteristics <strong>of</strong> the basin can be modelled. The model would give a measure<br />
<strong>of</strong> the mean value to assign to the prior distribution, whilst the variance<br />
must be obtained by assessing the reliability <strong>of</strong> the hypothesized model.<br />
Finally, the hydrologist's judgement and experience must necessarily<br />
enter the picture. When a "data-based'' prior is used, the exact form <strong>of</strong> the
324<br />
prior pdf is tempered by the hydrologistvs subjective assessment; when<br />
no data is available, the hydrologist can approximate a prior distribution<br />
on the parameter from "introspection, casual observation or theoretical ob-<br />
servations" (Zellner, 1971); he must be extremely careful, however, in<br />
determining that the dispersion in his prior pdf properly represents his<br />
true state <strong>of</strong> knowledge or ignorance,<br />
THE LOSS FUNCTION<br />
The loss function k(6,o) has been defined as the function that<br />
specifieg the opportunity loss that obtains when the hydrologist "acts" as<br />
though O were the real parameter value, when in fact O is. These<br />
opportunity losses represent the difference between the benefits actually<br />
to be obtained from a given <strong>Water</strong>-<strong>Resources</strong> project and the greater value<br />
that would have been realized had the true parameter value been known, It<br />
is seen from this definition that the economic losses are a consequence <strong>of</strong><br />
the decisions or ('actions'' that the hydrologist recommends on the basis <strong>of</strong><br />
his estimate; for example, these decisions could consist <strong>of</strong> constructing a<br />
reservoir <strong>of</strong> a certain storage capacity or, in a more complex system, <strong>of</strong><br />
constructing a series <strong>of</strong> reservoirs, irrigation sites, power stations and<br />
diversions <strong>of</strong> a certain size or capacity,<br />
Formally, the loss function can be obtained in the following manner.<br />
(Pratt, Raiffa and Schlaifer, 1965). LetAthere be a set A <strong>of</strong> acts a<br />
(which are a consequence <strong>of</strong> the estimate 8 ), a set fi <strong>of</strong> parameter<br />
values O , and a value function (e.g. National Income Net Benefits) Vt<br />
<strong>with</strong> values vt(a,O). For every parameter point, the greatest <strong>of</strong> these<br />
values is mpx vt (ayo). Therefore the opportunity loss <strong>of</strong> any particular<br />
act a given that the parameter is O is<br />
!L(a,O) max vt(a,O) - vt(a,O)<br />
a<br />
where a, is the optimal act a for O .<br />
Finally, if<br />
be expressed<br />
as is the optimal act a for 6 , then (5) can<br />
These ideas are illustrated in Figure 1.<br />
Thus, to determine the structure <strong>of</strong> his loss function, the hydro-.<br />
logist must first evaluate the value functions associates <strong>with</strong> his problem.<br />
Application to a Reservoir Sizing Problem<br />
A simple, though common problem in <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Engineering is the<br />
determination <strong>of</strong> the optimal storage capacity <strong>of</strong> a reservoir to provide re-
325<br />
gulated flow to an irrigation area <strong>of</strong> a given size <strong>with</strong> a given target demand.<br />
The action to be taken in this case consists <strong>of</strong> constructing the reservoir <strong>of</strong><br />
a certain capacity S; the value functions could consist <strong>of</strong> the net benefits<br />
derived from the irrigation system.<br />
These can be computed on the basis <strong>of</strong><br />
the long-term benefits derived from the operation <strong>of</strong> the irrigation site, the<br />
cost <strong>of</strong> the reservoir and <strong>of</strong> the irrigation system, and the short term losses<br />
which occur when the water supplied by the reservoir is insufficient to meet<br />
the irrigation target.<br />
As th2 reservoir size is increased, the short term losses decrease at<br />
the expense <strong>of</strong> reservoir Costs, and therefore the problem essentially consists<br />
<strong>of</strong> a trade-<strong>of</strong>f between these two fac'tors.<br />
A discrete set <strong>of</strong> value functions can be easily determined in this<br />
case through simulation for a discrete number <strong>of</strong> parameter values<br />
(oi, i = l,Z,...,n) and for a discrete number <strong>of</strong> design storage capacities,<br />
or actions, (aj, j = 1,2,...,n). Using the assumed flow mod21 <strong>with</strong> parameter<br />
oi, and setting the reservoir capacity at aj, the system net benefits<br />
Vt(Oiy aj) can be determined after simulating for an appropriate period <strong>of</strong><br />
years.<br />
This technique was applied to determine the loss function for a hypothetical<br />
problem <strong>of</strong> determining the optimal storage capacity <strong>of</strong> a reservoir<br />
to supply an irrigation system in the Rio Colorado Basin in Southern Argentina<br />
(see Lenton, Rodriguez-Iturbe, and Schaake, 1973) ; the assumed model was the<br />
first-order normal autoregressive model <strong>with</strong> parameters p ,a2 and p . The<br />
loss function for p , assuming and u' equal to the sample values, is<br />
shown in Figure 2.<br />
It should be pointed out that the loss function on all 3 parameters<br />
<strong>of</strong> the model could be determined using exactly the same technique, although<br />
a 6-dimensional matrix would be required.<br />
EXAMPLE APPLICATION: THE FIRST ORDER AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL<br />
The Bayesian methodology for parameter estimation has been applied<br />
quite successfully to the case <strong>of</strong> the first-order normal autoregressive model<br />
by Lenton, Rodriguez-Iturbe and Schaake, (1973), the basic results <strong>of</strong> which<br />
are summarized below.<br />
The first order normal autoregressive process may be expressed as<br />
where y, = annual flow at year t<br />
w = independent normally distributed random-variable <strong>with</strong> zero<br />
mean and unit variance
326<br />
p = mean <strong>of</strong> the process<br />
u2 = variance <strong>of</strong> the process<br />
p = first-order autocorrelation coefficient <strong>of</strong> the process<br />
The Bayesian analysis begins <strong>with</strong> the assessment <strong>of</strong> the prior in-<br />
formation. In this case, in order to make the posterior analysis mathema-<br />
tically tractable, the model was reformulated in terms <strong>of</strong> the parameters<br />
v', U , and p, where v' is the inverse.pf the coefficient <strong>of</strong> variation.<br />
This approach has the considerable advantage <strong>of</strong> permitting the assumption<br />
<strong>of</strong> independence between the parameters at an "a priori" level, and hence<br />
the prior pdf could be expressed<br />
The prior pdf on the parameter p , p(p), was derived from a collection<br />
<strong>of</strong> past records from 140 rivers <strong>of</strong> the world, gathered by Yevjevich (1964).<br />
A Beta distribution <strong>of</strong> the form<br />
was fitted to the histogram <strong>of</strong> values <strong>of</strong> p derived from that collection,<br />
resulting in the following values <strong>of</strong> kl and k2<br />
kl = 9.888<br />
k2 = 14.499<br />
Assuming prior ignorance about the values <strong>of</strong> v' and U , (8)<br />
was expressed as<br />
It should be pointed out that it is possible to incorporate informa-<br />
tion on the parameter v' as well, utilizing the same collection <strong>of</strong> records<br />
from which the prior information on p was derived, and fitting a Beta pdf<br />
to the frequency histogram. However, this procedure has the disadvantage <strong>of</strong><br />
not permitting a marginal analysis on the parameter p , which can be con-<br />
siderably useful, as will be seen further on.<br />
The likelihood function for the parameters was derived in the usual<br />
manner, and multiplying the prior pdf by the likelihood function for the 3<br />
parameters <strong>of</strong> the process, the posterior pdf was shown to be
where<br />
Equation (11) is therefore the key equation for the optimum estima-<br />
tion <strong>of</strong> the parameters <strong>of</strong> the first order autoregressive model. To do this<br />
in a practical design problem the following two steps must be undertaken:<br />
327<br />
1.) Derive the loss function &(6,0), where O and 8 are now<br />
3x1 column vectors, by application <strong>of</strong> Equation (6). The value functions can<br />
be obtained through simulation, as shown in the Rio Colorado example.<br />
2.) Obtain the optimum parameter estimates 0 by solving Equation<br />
(3), by substitution <strong>of</strong> (11). In practical applications, this minimization<br />
procedure must be undertaken numerically. Note that the determination <strong>of</strong> the<br />
optimal estimates immediately gives the optimal action a6 through the<br />
value function Vt (a,O), as indicated in Figure 1.<br />
Some Simplifying Approaches<br />
The procedure outlined above may be considerab1:r simplified if the<br />
hydrologist is willing to limit his problem to the optimum estimation <strong>of</strong> o<strong>nl</strong>y<br />
the parameter P ,the other parameters being estimated by classical proce-<br />
dures. This approach may be justified by noting that the variance <strong>of</strong> these<br />
estimates is usually quite small.<br />
The marginal posterior pdf for P can be obtained in this case by<br />
integration <strong>of</strong> Equation (11). However, a much simpler expression, and one<br />
that produces almost identical estimates, can be derived by making the trans-<br />
f o mat ion<br />
The model can now be expressed as<br />
Xt = y, - lJ (12)
328<br />
The marginal posterior pdf for P for this process can be shorn<br />
to be (Thornber, 1967; Rodriguez-Iturbe et al., 1972)<br />
where<br />
T<br />
a = C x 2<br />
t<br />
t=o<br />
T<br />
a 1 = - 2 C xt x t-1<br />
t=l<br />
a2 = I xL<br />
t-1<br />
t=2<br />
Further fundamental simplificatiom can be made if the hydrologist<br />
is willing to fit a simple functional form to his loss function. In this<br />
case the minimization <strong>of</strong> Equation (3) can be determined analytically. Some<br />
distribution-free results are available in the literature (Raiffa and<br />
Schlaifer, 1960), for example, if the loss function can be assumed quadratic,<br />
then the optimum estimate is the mean <strong>of</strong> the posterior<br />
function can be assumed linear, i.e.<br />
pdf. If the loss<br />
then the optimum estimate is obtained from the value that satisfies<br />
kU<br />
P(P/X) = -<br />
%+ ko<br />
where P(p/X) is the posterior cdf for p .<br />
Lenton, Rodriguez-Iturbe and Schaake (1973) extensively studied<br />
the properties <strong>of</strong> the Bayes estimators under the quadratic and linear loss<br />
functions, <strong>with</strong> various degrees <strong>of</strong> asymmetry. Basically, interest centered<br />
around comparing the performance <strong>of</strong> Bayes estimators <strong>with</strong> that <strong>of</strong> some clas-<br />
sical estimators. The criteria for comparison were the risk functions
R(p) and the expected risk B.<br />
where<br />
By definition,<br />
R = Region <strong>of</strong> the sample vector Y<br />
Y<br />
Hence the expected risk is<br />
The prior pdf P(P) used was that given by Equation (9) <strong>with</strong> the<br />
Yevjevich data parameters.<br />
Some selected results are reprinted in Tables 1 and 2. They<br />
show the Bayes estimator to be considerably superior to the Maximum Liks-<br />
lihood (ML) estimator in all cases, especially in the presence <strong>of</strong> limited<br />
data.<br />
Table 1<br />
Comparison <strong>of</strong> Estimators under the Quadratic Loss Function<br />
Sample Length<br />
329<br />
The sensitivity <strong>of</strong> the Bayes estimator to the form <strong>of</strong> the loss function<br />
was also studied. The Bayes estimator was found to be remarkably robust;<br />
for example, for sample lengths <strong>of</strong> 10 years, if the coefficient<br />
ko was<br />
erroneously determined as ko = 4 instead <strong>of</strong> ko = 0.25, the Bayes estimator<br />
still performed almost twice as well as the ML estimator,under the expected
330<br />
risk criterion.<br />
Table 2<br />
Comparison <strong>of</strong> Estimators under the Linear Loss Function<br />
Furthermore, practically no difference in the expected risk was<br />
found when the symmetric linear loss function was used instead <strong>of</strong> the<br />
quadratic. In general, it was concluded that errors in the form <strong>of</strong> the<br />
loss function are less important than errors in the degree <strong>of</strong> asymmetry<br />
<strong>of</strong> the loss function. This observation tends to justify the simplification<br />
<strong>of</strong> fitting the loss function to a given functional form, provided that the<br />
correct degree <strong>of</strong> asymmetry is preserved.<br />
CONCLUSIONS<br />
The Bayesian framework for parameter estimation permits the hydro-<br />
logist to correct the defects <strong>of</strong> classical methods <strong>of</strong> estimation through<br />
the consideration <strong>of</strong> fi sources <strong>of</strong> information and through the considera-<br />
tion <strong>of</strong> the economic consequences <strong>of</strong> erroneous estimates.<br />
Infonation obtained from sources other than the historical sample<br />
is incorporated in the prior pdf; however, the source <strong>of</strong> information must<br />
be analyzed very carefully. The sample information enters the estimation<br />
procedure via the likelihood function. The economic consequences <strong>of</strong> erroneous<br />
estimates are taken into account by means <strong>of</strong> a loss function; a general tech-<br />
nique for obtaining this function for a hydrologic design problem is presen-<br />
ted.<br />
The general Bayesian approach to parameter estimation can be applied<br />
to the first order autoregressive model. In general, this procedure permits
the optimum estimation <strong>of</strong> the 3 parameters <strong>of</strong> the model. However, if the<br />
hydrologist is willing to make some simplifying assumptions and limit<br />
his problem to the estimation <strong>of</strong> P , relatively simple estimators can<br />
be derived. These estimators present considerable advantages over the<br />
classical estimators.<br />
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS<br />
The work was supported by the Office <strong>of</strong> <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Research,<br />
Office <strong>of</strong> the Interior, United States Govprnment, under Grant No.<br />
14-31-0001-9021.<br />
1.<br />
2.<br />
3.<br />
4.<br />
5.<br />
6.<br />
7.<br />
8.<br />
REFERENCES<br />
Wood, Eric F., (1973). Flood Control <strong>Design</strong> <strong>with</strong> Limited Data -<br />
,A Comparison <strong>of</strong> the Classical and Bayesian Approaches, Presented<br />
at the Symposium on the <strong>Design</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Water</strong> Resource <strong>Projects</strong> <strong>with</strong><br />
<strong>Inadequate</strong> Data, Madrid, June 1973.<br />
Zellner, A. (1971). An Introduction to Bayesian Inference in Eco-<br />
nometrics, J. Wiley &Sons.<br />
Pratt, J.W., H. Raiffa, and R. Schlaifer (1965). Introduction to<br />
Statistical Decision Theory, McGraw-Hill.<br />
331<br />
Lenton, Roberto L., I. Rodriguez-Iturbe and John C. Schaake, (1973).<br />
A Bayesian Approach to Autocorrelation Estimation in Hydrologic<br />
Autoregressive Models, Ralph M. Parsons Laboratory, Report No. 163,<br />
M.I.T.<br />
Yevjevich, V. (1964). Fluctuations <strong>of</strong> Wet and Dry Years, Part II,<br />
Analysis by Serial Correlation, Colorado State University <strong>Hydrology</strong><br />
Paper No. 4, Fort Collins, Colorado.<br />
Thornber, H. (1967). Finite Sample Monte Carlo Studies: An Auto-<br />
regressive Illustration, J. Am. Statist. ASSOC., September 1967.<br />
Rodriguez-Iturbe, I., J. Valdes, R. Lenton and D. Valencia, (1972).<br />
Bayesian Hydrological Model Building, Proceedings <strong>of</strong> the ïnter-<br />
national Symposium on Uncertainties in Hydrologic and <strong>Water</strong> Resource<br />
Systems, Volume II, University <strong>of</strong> Arizona, Tucson, Arizona.<br />
Raiffa, H, and R. Schlaifer, (1961). Applied Statistical Decision<br />
Theory, M.I.T. Press.
332<br />
Figure 1 . The value functions and the determination<br />
<strong>of</strong> the loss function.<br />
\<br />
a
_c,<br />
-p" -0 6 -0 2 02<br />
R
STORAGE-Y1,ELD ESTTMATEC WITH INADEQUATE STREAMFLOW DATA<br />
T.A. McMahon and R.G. Mein<br />
Department <strong>of</strong> Civil Engineering, Monash University, Australia.<br />
ABSTRACT<br />
<strong>Inadequate</strong> streamflow data may result from short records.<br />
Various techniques can be used to deal <strong>with</strong> this paper the design<br />
problem <strong>of</strong> estimating the storage-yield relationship for a large<br />
reservoir on a stream having o<strong>nl</strong>y seventeen years <strong>of</strong> data is conside-<br />
red, There are two parts to this problem; the extension <strong>of</strong> the<br />
streamflow record and the estimation <strong>of</strong> storage capacity.<br />
For the example studied, the streamflow record was extended<br />
from daily rainfall using a simple rainfall-run<strong>of</strong>f procedure<br />
(Boughton's digital computer model modified <strong>with</strong> a groundwater<br />
component). The model was fitted to half <strong>of</strong> the available record and<br />
validated against the remaini'ng half. The agreement between estimated<br />
and historical data was better than that resulting from a month by<br />
month regression analysis between the historical flows and the flows<br />
at an adjacent site (<strong>with</strong> much longer streamflow records).<br />
In the part Gould's stochastic model is used to determine<br />
storage capacity. The mothod is independent <strong>of</strong> the initial conditions<br />
and takes into account seasonality and monthly serial correlation.<br />
Results are compared <strong>with</strong> those obtained using a behaviour analysis.<br />
RESUME<br />
L'insuffisance des données portant sur le débit peut résulter<br />
de la trop courte durée des relevés. L'on peut adopter différentes<br />
techniques pour y remédier. Dans le présent article, nous étudierons<br />
plus particulierement le probleme de l'élaboration d'une méthode<br />
permettant d'estimer les relations débit-accumulation dans le cas<br />
d'un grand réservoir situé sur un cours d'eau pour lequel lienregis-<br />
trement des données ne remonte qu'a dix-sept ans. Le problème peut<br />
être divisé en deux parties: ia prolongation des données concernant<br />
le débit d'eau et l'estimation de la capacité d'emmagasinage.<br />
Dans le cas précis, la série des données concernant le ddbit<br />
d'eau a été prolongé au moyen de données pluviométriques grace 3<br />
l'utilisation d'une simple procédure pluviométrie-écoulement (modèle<br />
numdrique de Boughton modifié par l'addition d'un autre facteur,lleau<br />
souterraine). Le modèle a St6 ajusté en utilisant la moiti8 des<br />
données disponibles, pour être ensuite contrôle par comparaison ayec<br />
l'autre moitié. L'accord entre les données estimées et historiques<br />
s'est révelé très supérieur à la corrélation, établie grâce à une<br />
analyse par régressions mensuelles entre les débits observés et ceux<br />
qui ont été obtenus dans un site voisin pour lequel les relevés por-<br />
tent sur une période beaucoup plus longue.<br />
Dans la deuxième partie le modèle stochastique de Gould est<br />
utilisé pour déterminer la capacité d'emmagasinage. Cette méthode est<br />
indépendante des conditions initiales et elle ti'ent compte des fac-<br />
teurs saisonniers aussi bien que de la correlation sérielle mensuelle.<br />
Une comparaison est faite entre nos résultats et ceux obtenus par la<br />
méthode d'analyse dite "de comportement'' (behaviour analysis 1.
336<br />
INTRODUCTION<br />
<strong>Inadequate</strong> streamflow data may result from measurement errors and<br />
shortness <strong>of</strong> record. In this paper we are concerned <strong>with</strong> the latter problem.<br />
Specifically, we take a seventeen year streamflow record, considered<br />
inadequate for storage estimation, and show how this can be extended using<br />
a relatively simple deterministic rainfall-run<strong>of</strong>f model.<br />
In the second part a stochastic storage model is used to estimate the<br />
capacity <strong>of</strong> a single reservoir €or various regulating conditions and<br />
probabilities in failure.<br />
The methodology is illustrated using the ïñomson River catchment at<br />
'Ihe Narrows (ref. no. 225210, iat 37O 53'S, long 146O 24'E) in Victoria,<br />
Australia. This is a 518 km2 forested catchment (Fig.1) <strong>with</strong> elevations<br />
varying between 400m and 1560m.<br />
In the south west, granodioritecountry gives<br />
rise to deep loam soils whereas the remaining area is sedimentary rocks <strong>with</strong><br />
shallow soils. Mean annual catchment rainfall is 1540mm which varies from<br />
below 1OOOmm to more than 2500m over the catchment.<br />
Three standard daily read rain gauges (Fig.1) are available <strong>with</strong><br />
records extending from 1886 to 1970. A fourth gauge <strong>with</strong> data from 1942<br />
onwards is also available. Stream heights at The Narrows have been recorded<br />
automatically since 1954 and masured gaugings have been made up to 531n~s-l.<br />
However, discharges up to 150m3s-l have been estimated. No long term<br />
evaporation measurements are available <strong>with</strong>in or near the catchment. The<br />
closest station is at Elelbourne, 130 km to the west.<br />
STREAMFLOW DATA ESTIMATION<br />
Basically there are two methods available for extending streamflow<br />
data at a gauging station. The first method consists in correlating the<br />
flows at that station <strong>with</strong> those at a nearby station <strong>with</strong> long records.<br />
From the additional records and the regression equation/s relating the two<br />
stations, flows at the station <strong>with</strong> the shorter record period are estimated.<br />
Searcy (1960) explains clearly the use <strong>of</strong> simple analytical and graphical<br />
regression procedures to do this. Multiple regression methods are sometimes<br />
used. Examples <strong>of</strong> these are given by Brown (1961) who illustrates the<br />
procedures <strong>with</strong> monthly data for the Snowy Mountains region <strong>of</strong> Australia.<br />
The second technique is based on deterministic rainfall-run<strong>of</strong>f models.<br />
Of the many digital computer models now available, o<strong>nl</strong>y one - Boughton's<br />
model - has been used extensively in Australia. Because <strong>of</strong> this and because<br />
it utilizes daily inputs, we adopted the Boughton model for extending the<br />
seventeen years <strong>of</strong> streamflow at The Narrows, in an attempt to improve upon<br />
the results obtained using the standard regression method.<br />
In relation to data estimation, one question which arises is whether<br />
data should or should not be extended. In circumstances where consistency<br />
between record lengths is required, data extension is mandatory. However,<br />
a check on whether statistically one is better <strong>of</strong>f extending data can be made
y computing the relative information content using the procedure given by<br />
Fiering (1962). Checks made for this study showed extension <strong>of</strong> the data is<br />
beneficial.<br />
337<br />
In this paper the terms data extension and data estimation are used<br />
synonymously to des cribe procedures in which equivalent historical estimates<br />
are made. Herein, we calculate historical monthly flws for the period 1886<br />
to 1353. On the other hand, data generation is an analytical tool in which<br />
a model, which represents the stochastic streamflow process, produces flow<br />
sequences that statistically are no different to the historical sequence,<br />
but cannot be adopted to represent the observed flow record.<br />
Boughton's Rainfall-Run<strong>of</strong>f Model (Boughton 1966, 1968)<br />
?he Boughton model simulates for a catchment daily surface run<strong>of</strong>f from<br />
daily rainfall inputs and is operated in three distinct cycles - wetting,<br />
drying and drainage. The wetting cycle is o<strong>nl</strong>y considered on rainfall days,<br />
but the drying and drainage cycle operate every day.<br />
a) Model structure.<br />
The model consists <strong>of</strong> four storages representing interception, upper-<br />
soil, drainage and the lower-soil zones (Fig.2).<br />
The interception store represents water stored on vegetation during<br />
rain periods. It fills during the wetting cycle and evaporates (at the<br />
Potential rate) during the drying cycle.<br />
When the interception store is full, excess rainfall is admitted to<br />
the upper soil store which represents the moisture holding capacity <strong>of</strong> the top<br />
soil. <strong>Water</strong> is lost from this store during the drying cycle by<br />
evapotranspiration.<br />
The drainage store fills during the wetting cycle o<strong>nl</strong>y after the upper<br />
soil store is full. This is intended to represent water in the upper soil<br />
which can later drain under gravity to the lower soil zone. If the drainage<br />
store is filled (i.e. the soil is saturated), surface run<strong>of</strong>f occurs. During<br />
the drainage cycle the drainage store is depleted by water transferring to<br />
the lower soil store. No evapotranspiration occurs from the drainage store.<br />
The lower soil store represents water held in the sub-soil zone.<br />
Drainage from the drainage store adds to the volume in storage, whilst<br />
evapotranspiration and deep percolation deplete it.<br />
üp-dating <strong>of</strong> the moisture status <strong>of</strong> the stores occurs daily.<br />
b) Infiltration.<br />
The model utilizes a relation similar to Horton's infiltration<br />
equation:<br />
-k . SS<br />
f = fc + (fo - fc) e . (1)
338<br />
where f = daily loss rate,<br />
fo = loss rate when soil is at wilting point,<br />
fc = limiting value which the loss rate<br />
approaches at high soil-misture levels,<br />
k = an exponent, and<br />
SS = lower-soil moisture level.<br />
Thus infiltration is a function o<strong>nl</strong>y <strong>of</strong> the lower soil moisture status. When<br />
this is low, the rate <strong>of</strong> infiltration from the drainage to the lower soil<br />
store is high, and vice versa.<br />
c) Evap o t rans pi r a t i on.<br />
As well as evaporation from the interception store, evapotranspiration<br />
takes place from the upper and lower soil stores. Evaporation need is first<br />
met from the interception store, and if that need is not filled, evapotranspiratic<br />
then takes place simultaneously from the upper and lower soil stores. The rate<br />
is a function <strong>of</strong> both the evaporation potential and the soil moisture status<br />
<strong>of</strong> each store. This approach follows the work <strong>of</strong> Denmead and Shaw (1962)<br />
and is shown schematically in Fig. 3.<br />
d) Surface run<strong>of</strong>f.<br />
In the model no attempt is made to simulate the time sequencing <strong>of</strong><br />
surface run<strong>of</strong>f. Run<strong>of</strong>f occurs o<strong>nl</strong>y on days <strong>of</strong> rain. The algorithm for<br />
estimating daily run<strong>of</strong>f volume is:<br />
Q = P - f tanh (P/f)<br />
where Q = daily surface run<strong>of</strong>f,<br />
P = daily rainfall less interception and upper soil<br />
store requirements, and<br />
f = daily loss rate.<br />
e) Groundwater.<br />
As proposed by Boughton, the model yields surface run<strong>of</strong>f o<strong>nl</strong>y. Ground-<br />
water loss whiclr is a function <strong>of</strong> the moisture status <strong>of</strong> the lower store '<br />
accretes to deep seepage. No base flow occurs.<br />
To overc8me this deficiency in the model, the authors substituted for<br />
the lower soil store shown in Fig. 2, the modification shown in Fig. 4.<br />
That is, the lower soil store is divided into two parts, each contributing<br />
to base flow. nie lower section <strong>of</strong> the store must be full before the upper<br />
section can hold water.<br />
On the assumption that there is no deep groundwater<br />
loss from the catchment, base flow was represented by the following<br />
equations and added to the surface run<strong>of</strong>f component.<br />
. . . (2)
Qb = kl S1 if SS E Slmax<br />
Qb = kl S1 + k2 S2<br />
Qb = Sp + kl S1 + k2 S2 if SS > Slmm + SZmax<br />
339<br />
. . . (3)<br />
. . . (4)<br />
. . . (5)<br />
where Qb = daily base flow,<br />
S1,S2 = soil moisture levels <strong>of</strong> each section <strong>of</strong> the<br />
lower soil store,<br />
S = maximum capacity <strong>of</strong> lower soil store sections,<br />
simax> 2max<br />
SS = lower soil moisture status,<br />
Sp = spill from lower soil store if the total capacity is exceeded,<br />
kl,k2 = base flow recession constants for the lower soil store<br />
sections determined from the streamflow data.<br />
This particular algorithm was chosen because it represents on a daily basis<br />
the double sloped hydrograph recession limbs observed for The Narrows flow<br />
data.<br />
f) Parameter estimates and optimization.<br />
Before the Boughton model can be used to predict run<strong>of</strong>f, values for<br />
several parameters must be determined. nie usual method for this is to estimate<br />
values, run the model, and compare the predicted and observed values <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f.<br />
Then changes are made to the parameters to see if the agreement can be<br />
improved. There were nine parameters for which values were required, namely<br />
the capacities <strong>of</strong> the interception, upper soil, drainage and lower soil<br />
stores, S2, k2, fo, fc, and k. (kl was determined from base-flow recessions<br />
in the data). Systematic variation <strong>of</strong> the values <strong>of</strong> the parameters (optimization)<br />
is made to determine the values.<br />
The most common optimization procedure is the steepest descent method.<br />
Another procedure is the simplex method. Boughton (1968) and Nedler and Mead<br />
(1965) discuss these techniques. Model parameters are determined normally<br />
using half the available conmon rainfall and streamflw record period, the<br />
remaining half being used to test the model parameters by comparing the<br />
computed flows <strong>with</strong> the observed ones.<br />
Further details <strong>of</strong> the model can be found in Boughton's papers (1966,<br />
1968a,b) and in Pattison and McMahon (1973).<br />
Results.<br />
The model was applied on a daily basis to the Thomson catchment. For fhe<br />
period 1886-1971, daily catchment rainfalls were estimated from the daily ram gauge readings using Theissen weightings. AS daily streamflow data at The<br />
Narrows were available from 1954 to 1970, the period 1954-1962 was used to<br />
define model parameters, the remaining eight years was used as an independent<br />
test <strong>of</strong> their adequacy.
340<br />
Daily catchment evaporation estimates for the study period were estimated<br />
by applying monthly sunken tank pan coefficients taken from Wiesner (1970,<br />
Table 18) to kïbourne pan data. In addition to Melbourne being 130 km from<br />
the catchment, data was measured initially using a sunken tank but after 1967<br />
by American class 'Al pan. No suitable class 'A' pan coeffecients are<br />
available for the site. This results in the open surface evaporation estimates<br />
from 1967 to 1970 being uncertain.<br />
From Table I it is seen that the computed monthly flows compare<br />
favourably <strong>with</strong> the observed values. In making this assessment, the simplicity<br />
<strong>of</strong> the model, the difficulties in estimating catdiment evaporation and the<br />
normal accuracy <strong>of</strong> rainfall and streamflow data were all considered. The year<br />
1954 is difficult to simulate because <strong>of</strong> the effect <strong>of</strong> the choice <strong>of</strong> initial<br />
conditions, while the uncertainty <strong>of</strong> the correct evaporation values for 1967<br />
onwards is certai<strong>nl</strong>y a factor in the estimates for that period. A further<br />
comparison is shown in Table II for the period 1954-1970 between historical<br />
flows and those calculated using the model and those calculated from monthly<br />
regression analysis between The Narrows data and its most reliable set <strong>of</strong><br />
adjacent flows. The model results are better.<br />
RESERVOIR CAPACITY ESTIMATION<br />
Joy and McMahon (1972) have reviewed a large number <strong>of</strong> procedures for<br />
computing the capacity <strong>of</strong> a single reservoir and conclude that Gould's<br />
method is a satisfactory design tool.<br />
Gould's Stochastic Storage Model (Gould, 1961)<br />
Gould's technique is classi£ied as a stochastic approach and is based<br />
on the pioneering work <strong>of</strong> Moran (1959). Using discrete time units, Moran set<br />
up a simple mass balance <strong>of</strong> water in storage as follows:<br />
at+l = Pt + Xt - Yt . . . (6)<br />
where Xt,Pt+l = reservoir contents at the beginning and end <strong>of</strong><br />
tth discrete time period,<br />
= inflow during tth time period, and<br />
Xt<br />
Yt = release during tth time period.<br />
By neglecting seasonality and annual serial correlation and dividing the<br />
reservoir and streamflow into a number <strong>of</strong> equally sized zones, Moran was able<br />
to obtain a system <strong>of</strong> equations (the coefficients <strong>of</strong> which are equivalent to<br />
the transition matrix <strong>of</strong> stored contents) describing the cumulative probability<br />
<strong>of</strong> stored contents. The solution <strong>of</strong> these equations is the steady state<br />
condition <strong>of</strong> stored water.<br />
In Gould's technique, the reservoir is also divided into a number <strong>of</strong><br />
zones. The transition matrix - the relation <strong>of</strong> the volume <strong>of</strong> water in storage<br />
at time t to the volume stored at time (t+l) - is obtained by routing each
year <strong>of</strong> the historical flow record through a storage <strong>of</strong> specified size, a month<br />
at a time, beginning each year in each zone. (Twenty zones were used in this<br />
study). Thus seasonality and monthly serial correlation are automatically taken<br />
into account. Releases from the reservoir can be varied seasonally or in any<br />
other specified manner. However, annual flows are assumed independent. By<br />
recording the starting zone, finishing zone and the number <strong>of</strong> failures, the<br />
transition matrix <strong>of</strong> stored contents and the conditional probabilities <strong>of</strong><br />
failure <strong>with</strong>in the year subject to the reservoir contents at the start <strong>of</strong><br />
the year are built up. From the transition matrix, the steady state content<br />
is obtained.<br />
341<br />
As applied bj, Gould, the conditional probabilities <strong>of</strong> failure were<br />
based on annual failures determined from monthly flows. This results in an<br />
over-estimation <strong>of</strong> the required storage size. In the procedure used here,<br />
the method is modified so that the conditional probabilities <strong>of</strong> failure are<br />
determined by monthly failures from monthly flows (see Joy and McMahon, 1972).<br />
Space precludes an adequate description <strong>of</strong> Gould's procedure. It is<br />
set down clearly in example form in Appendix I <strong>of</strong> the original paper (Gould,<br />
1961).<br />
In the procedure annual flows are assumed independent. However, Gould<br />
provides an equation to correct for this if the annual serial correlation is<br />
significant. A limitation <strong>of</strong> the technique is that it requires computer<br />
facilities for solution. On the other hand, an advantage is that the<br />
probability <strong>of</strong> failure is independent <strong>of</strong> the initial starting conditions.<br />
Moreover, because <strong>of</strong> the assumption <strong>of</strong> annual independence, records <strong>with</strong><br />
missing years <strong>of</strong> data can be utilized <strong>with</strong>out recourse to data extension<br />
techniques.<br />
Results.<br />
Gould's procedure, modified as noted above, was applied to the 85 years<br />
<strong>of</strong> estimated streamflow data for conditions <strong>of</strong> 5% probability <strong>of</strong> failure and<br />
constant draft rates <strong>of</strong> 50% and 90% <strong>of</strong> the mean monthly flow. In this context,<br />
5% probability <strong>of</strong> failure implies that 5% <strong>of</strong> the time the reservoir is unable<br />
to maintain a specified constant draft (other equivalent terms are yield,<br />
release, regulation) which is defined as a percentage <strong>of</strong> the mean flow.<br />
Storage estimates are given in Table III and are compared <strong>with</strong><br />
estimates based on a behaviour analysis. In the behaviour analysis, changes<br />
in the volume <strong>of</strong> water stored were examined on a monthly basis by adding inflows<br />
to, and subtracting releases from the water stored in a reservoir <strong>of</strong> finite<br />
capacity. Probability <strong>of</strong> failure was defined as the proportion <strong>of</strong> time units<br />
that the storage is empty to the number <strong>of</strong> units <strong>of</strong> historical flow run<br />
through the storage. In the behaviour analysis, it is assumed that the<br />
reservoir is initially full.<br />
At 50% draft, the storage estimates are similar. On the other hand, at<br />
the higher draft the Gould estimate is about 30% <strong>of</strong> the behaviour value. At<br />
low drafts such as 50% <strong>of</strong> mean flow, annual serial correlation is unimportant
34 2<br />
(Table III). Nevertheless, at high drafts <strong>with</strong> long draw .down periods extending<br />
over years, annual serial correlation must be taken into account. On adjusting<br />
the 90% value for the annual serial correlation <strong>of</strong> 0.34 using Gould's correction<br />
(Gould, 1961), the value is increased to 86% <strong>of</strong> the behaviour estimate. It<br />
should be noted, however, that 0.34* is beyond the range <strong>of</strong> correlations<br />
(O - O. 25) used by Gould in deriving the correction procedures.<br />
Consequently<br />
the correction factor is based on an extrapolation and this probably accounts<br />
for the difference in storage estimates at the 90% probability level. It has<br />
been shown elsewhere (Joy and McMahon, 1972) that Gould's method is a<br />
satisfactory procedure for estimating storage capacity.<br />
Because <strong>of</strong> the long length <strong>of</strong> record (historical plus estimated) and the<br />
low variability <strong>of</strong> Thomson River flows (for example the annual coefficient <strong>of</strong><br />
variation is 0.42 compared <strong>with</strong> the more variable Australian rivers <strong>with</strong> values<br />
over l.O), the behaviour storage estimate is considered to provide a reasonable<br />
check on the Gould results. However, in normal situations where either the<br />
available record is shorter or the stream more variable, the behaviour procedure<br />
is not necessarily a satisfactow analytical tool. Some comments on this<br />
aspect may be found in McMahon, Codner and Joy (1972).<br />
CONCLUSIONS<br />
In this paper we have endeavoured to illustrate the use <strong>of</strong> a<br />
relatively simple deterministic computer model by Boughton to extend an<br />
inadequate data sequence to one more acceptable in length. A modification<br />
which allowed the model to account for base flow was described.<br />
Reservoir capacity estimates were computed using Gould' s procedure<br />
again <strong>with</strong> slight modifications. Results were compared <strong>with</strong> those found<br />
using a behaviour analysis.<br />
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT<br />
nie authors wish to thank the Melbourne Metropolitan Board <strong>of</strong> Works<br />
for providing the rainfall and streamflow data for this project.<br />
Mr, G. Codner, Department <strong>of</strong> Civil Engineering, Monash University, provided<br />
the authors <strong>with</strong> the regression equations used to obtain the comparative<br />
results in Table II.<br />
*The value <strong>of</strong> 0.34 annual serial correlation is much higher than usual for<br />
Australian streams. It is not possible to determine whether the Boughton<br />
model itself contributed to this high value.
REFERENCES.<br />
1.<br />
2.<br />
3.<br />
4.<br />
5.<br />
6.<br />
7.<br />
8.<br />
9.<br />
10.<br />
11.<br />
12.<br />
13.<br />
Boughton, W.C. (1966). A Mathematical Model for Relating Run<strong>of</strong>f to<br />
Rainfall <strong>with</strong> Daily Data, I.E. Aust., Civil Engg. Trans., CE8(1),<br />
pp. 83-93.<br />
343<br />
Boughton, W.C. (1968a). Evaluating the Variables in a Mathematical<br />
Catchment Model, I.E. Aust., Civil Engg. Trans., CElO(1) pp. 31-39.<br />
Boughton, W. C. (1968b). A Mathematical Catchment Model for Estimating<br />
Run<strong>of</strong>f, Jour. <strong>Hydrology</strong> (N.Z.), 7(2), pp. 75-100.<br />
Brown, J.A.E. (1961). Streamflow Correlation in the Snowy Mountains<br />
Area, Jour I.E. Aust., 33(3), pp. 85-95.<br />
Denmead, O.T. & Shaw, R.H. (1962). Availability <strong>of</strong> Soil <strong>Water</strong> to<br />
Plants as Affected by Soil Moisture Content and Meteorological<br />
Conditions,Agron. Jour. 54(5), pp. 385-389.<br />
Fiering, M.B. (1962). On the Use <strong>of</strong> Correlation to Augment Data,<br />
Jour. Amer. Stat. ASSOC., 57, pp. 20-52.<br />
Gould, B.W. (1961). Statistical Methods for Estimating the <strong>Design</strong><br />
Capacity <strong>of</strong> Dams, Jour. I.E. Aust., 33(12), pp. 405-416.<br />
Joy, C.S. 6 McMahon, T.A. (1972) Reservoir Yield Estimation Procedures,<br />
I.E. Aust., Civil Engg. Trans., CE14(1), pp. 28-36.<br />
McMahon, T.A., Codner, G.P. 6 Joy, C.S. (1972). Reservoir-Storage Yield<br />
Estimates Based on Historical and Generated Streamflows. I.E. Aust.,<br />
Civil Engg. Trans., CE14(2) (in press).<br />
Moran, P.A.P. (1959). The Theory <strong>of</strong> Storage, Methuen, London.<br />
Nedler, J.A. & Mead, R. (1965). A Simplex Method for Function<br />
Minimization, Comp. Jour., 7, pp. 308-313.<br />
Pattison, A. & McMahon, T.A. (1973). Rainfall-Run<strong>of</strong>f Models Using<br />
Digital Computers, I.E. Aust., Civil Engg. Trans., CE15 (in press).<br />
Searcy, J.K. (1960). Graphical Correlation <strong>of</strong> Gauging Station Records,<br />
Geological Survey <strong>Water</strong> -Supply Paper 1541-C, Washington.
344<br />
TABLE I : COMPARISON OF BOUCHTON MODEL RESULTS WITH HISTORICAL VALUES<br />
FOR OPTIMIZING PERIOD AND INDEPENDENT TEST PERIOD.<br />
Parame ter<br />
Standard deviation<br />
(w/month)<br />
Corre lati on<br />
coe f fi cient<br />
between historical<br />
and predicted<br />
Optimizing Period (1953-62) Test period<br />
Historical Boughton His torical<br />
Value Mode 1 Value<br />
1 4 8 I 49<br />
1 38<br />
40 42 32<br />
- .94<br />
(1963-1970)<br />
Bought on<br />
Model<br />
TABLE II : OBSERVED STREAMFLOW PARAMETERS (FOR PERIOD 1954-1970) COMPARED<br />
WIM "HOSE ESTIMATED USING REGRESSION ANALYSIS AND BOUGHTON MODEL<br />
Parameter His torical<br />
Value<br />
Me an<br />
(mm/mon th)<br />
Standard deviation<br />
(m/mon th)<br />
Corre lation coefficient<br />
between observed and<br />
predicted I<br />
- .92<br />
TABLE III : STORAGE ESTIMATES FOR 5% PROBABILIW OF FAILURE<br />
(Millions <strong>of</strong> cubic metres)<br />
I Draft I Gould Model I Behaviour Analysis I<br />
1<br />
* Values in brackets include Gould's correction for<br />
annual serial correlation.<br />
86<br />
40<br />
37<br />
43<br />
41<br />
.89
o km<br />
Legend<br />
Daily read rain<br />
A Gauging station<br />
U<br />
~~<br />
5<br />
Granodiorite<br />
Clay, silt stone, silty sandstone<br />
FIG. 1. 'IHOSON RIVER CATCHMENT<br />
34 5
346<br />
Lower Soil Store<br />
-<br />
FIG. 2. SCHEMATIC DIAGRAM OF BOUGITON MODEL<br />
-
Actual<br />
ET<br />
Rate<br />
Ip potential<br />
ET<br />
Rate<br />
t<br />
eld<br />
pacity<br />
FIG. 3. COMPUTATION OF ACTUAL ET RATE FROM POTENTIAL ET RATE<br />
IN BOUGHTON MODEL. (Figure shows graphically the<br />
method <strong>of</strong> calculation for moisture level S<br />
for potential rate p)<br />
Lower Sub-store 2<br />
Soi 1<br />
Store ---<br />
Sub-store 1<br />
Infiltration Evapotranspiration<br />
Baseflow 2 (kzSz)<br />
Baseflow 1 (klSi)<br />
-<br />
FIG. 4. MODIFICATION OF 'IHE LOWER SOIL STORE TO OBTAIN A BASE<br />
FLOW WITH DOUBLE RECESSION CONSTANT.<br />
347
ABS TRACT<br />
ESTIMATION OF GUMBEL LAW PARAMETERS IN SMALL SAMPLES<br />
Valentin Martfn Jadraque<br />
Civil Engineer<br />
A complete study <strong>of</strong> the distribution law <strong>of</strong> Gumbel for ex-<br />
treme values is realized and the methodology <strong>of</strong> estimation <strong>of</strong> the<br />
characteristical parameters, mean and typical desviation in the<br />
case <strong>of</strong> samples <strong>of</strong> few extension, which serve to determine the<br />
typical parameters u and u <strong>of</strong> this law,<br />
RES UM EN<br />
Se realiza un estudio completo de la ley de distribución de<br />
Gumbel para valores extremos y la metodología de estimación de los<br />
parametros caracterfsticos, media y desviación típica en el caso<br />
de muestras de poca extensión, los cuales sirven para determinar<br />
los pardmetros u y u de esta ley.
350<br />
Iii hydrological studies, and especially when studying<br />
the maximum annual flood <strong>of</strong> a river, this aleatory variable<br />
is considered as distributed according to the Gumbel law.<br />
However, the Gumbel law has more general applications, and<br />
its use is considered satisfactory as distribution <strong>of</strong> aleatory<br />
variables which are extremes (maximum or minimums) <strong>of</strong> a certain<br />
phenomenum produced in time.<br />
Tile study we are making is partly a reminder <strong>of</strong> the main<br />
properties <strong>of</strong> this variable, such as its distribution function,<br />
density function, moment generating function, and estimation <strong>of</strong><br />
the moments regarding the origin, estimating the mean, variance<br />
and typical deviation, and partly a development <strong>of</strong> the study on<br />
estimation <strong>of</strong> the characteristic mean and typical deviation<br />
parameters in the case <strong>of</strong> samples <strong>of</strong> small extension, which in<br />
turn help to find the typical iy and u paramcters <strong>of</strong> this law.<br />
The aleatory variable 5 <strong>with</strong> Gumbel distribution is one<br />
whose distribution function F (x) is:<br />
F (x) = Prob (5‘”) = e<br />
-e-% (x-u)<br />
(1)<br />
wliereMand u are parameters to be determined in each case, and<br />
whose estimation is analysed later on.<br />
The distribution function (i), as all distribution functions,<br />
fulfils the properties :<br />
F (x,) 5 F (x2 1 if x1 x2<br />
F (-”) = O<br />
F (+p.) = 1<br />
The density function f (x) will be:<br />
The distribution method is made by making:<br />
f’ (x) = FI’ (x) = 0
Taking Neper logarithms in (i) and deriving, one obtains:<br />
F" (x) = @.e-=' IF' (x) -oc.F(x) ] whereby;<br />
Thus :<br />
FI' (x) = O implies F' (x) = O(, F(x)<br />
e = 1 and therefore, X mode<br />
The poment generating function<br />
(t) = E (e 5 * t, =<br />
Making<br />
-I?¿. (x-u)<br />
-00<br />
-- 1<br />
Y = - ?<br />
dy = -U. x. dz<br />
ex = eU.y *<br />
= u<br />
Thus :<br />
u. t t o<br />
ys(t) = eu*t* (5 ! = e .r (i - (3)<br />
'p5(O) = 1<br />
351<br />
- "(x. u)<br />
. d. x<br />
[<br />
To calculate the moments in respect <strong>of</strong> origin &k , we recall<br />
tiiat :<br />
% = 'f k (0) = -$'f5(t4<br />
5<br />
t=O<br />
and therefore:<br />
y&(t> = 1 - o(1 . t + -. t2+ ... +- o(k* tk+ ...;<br />
Taking Neper logarithms in (3) , we get:<br />
d2<br />
l ! 2! k!<br />
LnV5 (t) = u. t -+ Ln r (i - t ) (41<br />
On the other harid, it is known that:<br />
r(i+x)=x! =lim nx<br />
n-+n<br />
(i+&-)<br />
J<br />
j = l
352<br />
Where<br />
C = 0,5772156 ... P Euler constant .<br />
If we call<br />
O0<br />
We will get:<br />
and, the re for e :<br />
O0<br />
K1=r+, c<br />
Ks = - s2<br />
a2 '<br />
..............<br />
...........<br />
Sr.(r - i)!<br />
xr =<br />
ar<br />
.............<br />
ïim ( i .L i i 1 .L ... L I . L<br />
n-+Eo 2 3 n "
Where hr is the cumulant r-esimo.<br />
Since iíl = dl = ,cam<br />
The typ ical devi at i on<br />
tnus :<br />
R<br />
D(5) = + = ka^<br />
Having obtained a sample <strong>of</strong> values xl, x2 .. . , xn, and<br />
A<br />
estimating the meanPx from this sample and the typical<br />
A<br />
deviation o-x , the estimation <strong>of</strong> the parametersGy u is<br />
made in accordance <strong>with</strong> the above formulas:<br />
=fc. - 0,45QOS. a;C<br />
With this theore tical reminder , we shall now analyse the<br />
estimators study centred on the meany, and the typical<br />
deviation cxL<br />
353<br />
The sample mean xn is, as we know, an estimator/ X centered,<br />
<strong>of</strong> the population meanPx . In fact:<br />
-<br />
x1 I xp 1 ... 1 x n<br />
With x =<br />
n n
354<br />
x1 1 x2 1 ... .! x<br />
E(^ ) - E(Xn) = E( "1 = 2 .[E(xl) 1 E(x2) .! ... 5<br />
TK - n n<br />
In the case <strong>of</strong> the sample typical deviatioii Sxn, this<br />
A<br />
estimatorcx, is not centered in the typical population deviation<br />
vX and we will tkrefore try and find<br />
&, , which<br />
depending on n, make - 3<br />
5Lxn- 1 .<br />
En En En -- n n<br />
be an estimator centered on x.<br />
Accordingly, it must be verified that:<br />
Where 5 is the Gumbel generical aleatory variable <strong>with</strong><br />
dis tribut ion function<br />
-d.(X - u)<br />
-e<br />
F(x) = e<br />
(d7 O) (-QiX,C .!a)<br />
Let us consider the variable 7=a.('5- u) In other words:y=o
<strong>with</strong>' Sxn =<br />
n<br />
- n<br />
Considering Yn as estimator <strong>of</strong> /"y , we get:<br />
E($,) =-O(.E(X ) - d. u = .(PX - 1.1) = c<br />
n<br />
To calculate E (S ) , samples (y1, y2 .. . y,) are<br />
Yn<br />
formed, <strong>with</strong> extension n <strong>of</strong> the aleatory variable 0 , whose<br />
distribution function is +(y) = Proh( ,r y) = - e-Y<br />
e 7<br />
(reduced Gumbel distribution o(= 1 u = O).<br />
Thus, for the simulation procedure , an aleatory number<br />
zi <strong>of</strong> the rectangular distribution (0,l) is formed, and<br />
making<br />
-Yi<br />
z.= e-e or in other words:<br />
1<br />
Yi = - I+LZi) one obtains a value yi <strong>of</strong> the aleatory<br />
variable 12 .<br />
Having fixed the value <strong>of</strong> n (extension <strong>of</strong> the sample) and<br />
obtained k samples <strong>of</strong> extension n, <strong>with</strong> sufficiently large k,<br />
we will get:<br />
355
Number <strong>of</strong><br />
sample<br />
356<br />
Number <strong>of</strong><br />
extension n<br />
Sample mean<br />
1 -<br />
€(y 1 = c = 0'5772 -. .% Yni - Y,* 1 ... Y,!;<br />
n li<br />
?'lie value <strong>of</strong> En will be:<br />
n<br />
-<br />
= Y,<br />
and a centered estimation <strong>of</strong>px and TX will be:<br />
ci ,XT 1 x2 .L ... L<br />
'n - -<br />
Px = Il - xn<br />
Typical sample desviation
Let us see another procedure to estimate the typical<br />
population deviation G X.<br />
x,).<br />
357<br />
Let us consider the extension sample n : (xi x2 ... xi ...<br />
Let us take a smaller to larger scheduling <strong>of</strong> the form:<br />
kl< "6 . . . ..(Xi& * * sk,<br />
Cons i der ing the "quas i - ranges" :<br />
ox =? n -xl=x rnáx - Xmin = range<br />
rix = 5<br />
n-1 - '2<br />
rZx = - >i3<br />
and in general:<br />
I r<br />
hx = %-h<br />
If we have obtained k samples <strong>of</strong> extension n, by<br />
simulation in the Gumbel reduced Taw, and in each <strong>of</strong><br />
them the "quasi-range" r , we will get:<br />
11Y
358<br />
Let ? nh be the coefficient - function n - such that:<br />
Therefore:E(rhy--)<br />
o( .?nh<br />
Arid thus<br />
Pnh =<br />
In this case a centered estimation <strong>of</strong> pr and G, would be:<br />
L As 1 ... -L x -<br />
* = x<br />
n n<br />
Concluding, we can say that, given a sample <strong>of</strong> extension n<br />
(Xi x2 ... Xn ):<br />
1) A centered estimation <strong>of</strong>rx is:<br />
I x2<br />
-<br />
1 ... 1 xn -<br />
= x<br />
n<br />
n<br />
2) Centered estimations <strong>of</strong> 6 y are:<br />
Precisely as both estimators ox, and b, are centered<br />
inKx , in each case it would be convenient to take the one<br />
whose variance is less, in other words, where:<br />
h
we get:<br />
or in other words: :<br />
the variation coefficients <strong>of</strong> S and r respectively,<br />
Yn hY<br />
the above expressions stands as follows:<br />
And therefore,<br />
Within the "quasi-ranges" rhx, as all the quotients &<br />
Prix<br />
are centered estimators <strong>of</strong> cx and since r = H.rhx,<br />
hY<br />
we get:<br />
359
360<br />
For two particular values hl and h2 <strong>of</strong> h, we get:<br />
and therefore:<br />
One concludes, in all cases, that the centered estimator<br />
<strong>of</strong> Q to be used between SX, I<br />
D Or, ____ 'hlx<br />
En qnh 1<br />
r<br />
or, e will be the one for which the corresponding<br />
variation coefficient V(S ) or V(rhly) or V (r h2Y ) is less.<br />
Yn<br />
With these grounds and criteria, we have obtained the following<br />
results for k = 20.000 samples <strong>of</strong> extension n, by statistical<br />
simulation <strong>of</strong> samples <strong>of</strong> Gumbel reduced law values:
-,- i<br />
I<br />
.<br />
. . . .<br />
....... -1..<br />
. __<br />
i ¡ , . -4<br />
!<br />
. I /<br />
. .- .~ - __ .<br />
.<br />
361
U o<br />
o<br />
U<br />
VI<br />
l.3<br />
U O<br />
m<br />
E<br />
.rl<br />
U<br />
VI<br />
2<br />
a<br />
o<br />
VI<br />
O<br />
c) s ci<br />
E<br />
ci x<br />
> o<br />
TI<br />
,-i<br />
d<br />
u<br />
.FI<br />
.d d<br />
bX<br />
- .d O<br />
U<br />
u<br />
VI<br />
O<br />
3<br />
rl<br />
o<br />
a<br />
r(<br />
5<br />
I
According to the above, and bearing inmind that:<br />
+ 3 I?
fi<br />
F)<br />
C<br />
C<br />
a<br />
364
ABSTRACT<br />
STOCHASTIC SIMULATION FOR BASINS WITH SORT<br />
OR NO RECORDS OF STREAMFLOW<br />
by M. E. Moss and D. R. Dawdy<br />
U.S. Geological Survey, Washington, D.C., USA<br />
Stochastic modeling <strong>of</strong> streamflows is a powerful tool<br />
in water resources systems desing. Statistics for simulation<br />
which are based on short records may be highly uncertain. A<br />
method is presented for the development <strong>of</strong> a stochastic model<br />
for an ungaged site. The means and variances <strong>of</strong> the monthly<br />
streamflows can be based on regional estimates or on physical<br />
characteristics <strong>of</strong> the basin. The autocorrelation structure<br />
is based on rainfall records and physical characteristics <strong>of</strong><br />
the basin alone. Application <strong>of</strong> the method to the design <strong>of</strong> a<br />
reservoir is presented. A comparison is made <strong>with</strong> a reservoir<br />
design based on the recorded flows at the site.<br />
RESUMEN<br />
Los modelos estocásticos son una buena herramienta para<br />
el estudio de los recursos hidráulicos pero los métodos de SL<br />
mulación basados en series de pequeña extensión son muy peli-<br />
grosos se presenta un método de modelo estocástico en el cual<br />
la media y la varianza de los valores mensuales de caudal se<br />
obtienen por comparación a escala regional de las caracteris-<br />
ticas físicas de las cuencas.<br />
La estructura de autocorrelación se basa en los valores<br />
de precipitación y características físicas de una sola cuenca<br />
se aplica este método al dimensionamiento de un embalse y se<br />
compara con los valores que se obtienen a partir de los cauda<br />
les medidos en el emplazamiento de la presa.
366<br />
Introduction<br />
In many parts <strong>of</strong> the world there are little or no streamflow da<br />
ta. Even in areas where there is a relatively good set <strong>of</strong> streamflow<br />
data, projects for water resources development are desired for sites<br />
where the data do not exist. Oftentimes regional relations are developed<br />
to interpolate or, more rarely, to extrapolate streamflow characteristics<br />
to ungaged sites. The less data there are, the less<br />
accurate are the regional relations based on those data, However, re<br />
gional relations <strong>of</strong>ten are the o<strong>nl</strong>y basis for design. Thus, the mean<br />
flow, variance <strong>of</strong> flow, and other statistical characteristics may be<br />
related to drainage area, mean rainfall, or other physical basin mea<br />
sures. For instance, in the United States <strong>of</strong> America, multiple regre<br />
ssion relations are developed i .e,, c1) fram which can be computed<br />
mean flows and variances <strong>of</strong> flows for each month in the year, as<br />
well as for the total year.<br />
Stochastic simulation <strong>of</strong> streamflow is coming into widespread<br />
use for project design (2). The statistics required for stochastic<br />
simulation usually are based upon streamflow records collected at or<br />
near the project site. The accuracy <strong>of</strong> the statistics estimated for<br />
a stochastic model are deteymined by the length <strong>of</strong> the streamflow re<br />
cords, Therefore, the regional relations mentioned earlier are a tool<br />
for supplementing the data base for stochastic simulation, In fact,<br />
a reional relation may be superior to records collected at the site<br />
for estimation <strong>of</strong> some statistical parameters (3). For data scarce<br />
areas regional relations may be the primary source for such estima-<br />
tes.<br />
Stochastic simulation models require a knowledge <strong>of</strong> and<br />
estimation <strong>of</strong> the persistence <strong>of</strong> streamflow. By persistence is<br />
meant the degree to which streamflow today affects streamflows<br />
in the future. This is sometimes called a carry-over effect.<br />
For the first order autoregressive models <strong>of</strong>ten used for stream-<br />
flow simulation, the first order autoregressive coefficient is<br />
sufficient to describe persistence. For more complex models,<br />
other measures <strong>of</strong> persistence may be needed. However, experi-<br />
ence to date indicates that regionalization methods currently<br />
used are inadequate for the statistical estimation <strong>of</strong> persistence<br />
characteristics 141. This is partly because they are strongly<br />
dependent upon subsurface geology, for which no simple regionali-<br />
zation techniques have been developed. Therefore, a methodology<br />
is needed which can be used to estimate the correlation structure<br />
<strong>of</strong> streamflow sequences. This correlation structure could then<br />
be combined <strong>with</strong> the regional relations to develop the parameters<br />
for streamflow simulation models for use for project design in<br />
data-scarce areas.<br />
-
Method <strong>of</strong> Approach<br />
367<br />
Model choice and parameter estimation are the keys to<br />
effective use <strong>of</strong> stochastic streamflow sequences in hydrologic<br />
designs such as that <strong>of</strong> sizing a reservoir. The mixed-autore-<br />
gressive-moving-average (ARMA) model described by Moss [5]<br />
provides a scheme by which parameter estimation may be performed<br />
<strong>with</strong> a minimum <strong>of</strong> hydrologic data. It is a model that preserves<br />
many <strong>of</strong> the statistical characteristics that are commo<strong>nl</strong>y associ-<br />
ated <strong>with</strong> streamflow sequences. ARMA models can be developed<br />
that are covariance stationary and that preserve the memory <strong>of</strong><br />
the streamflow process for longer periods than do the more com-<br />
mo<strong>nl</strong>y used autoregressive models 161. A scheme <strong>with</strong> such<br />
attributes would seem to lend itself to the development <strong>of</strong><br />
data for design decisions in those cases where actual hydrologic<br />
data are too few to provide adequate solutions.<br />
A first order ARMA model for streamflow may be defined as<br />
M n = a M + b Pn-l + c Pn<br />
n- 1<br />
where M and P are the streamflow and effective precipitation,<br />
n<br />
respectively, for the nth time interval and a, b, and c are<br />
coefficients that are related to the basin characteristics.<br />
Moss 151 has shown that, if the baseflow from a basin behaves<br />
as a linear reservoir, that is<br />
-kt<br />
Qt = e QO<br />
where Q is discharge at time, t, and k is a constant, related to<br />
the geoiogy and measuring the streamf low recession rate , the ARMA<br />
parameters can be evaluated as<br />
-k<br />
a = e (3) I<br />
k (Tn-l)<br />
c i l - r e<br />
n<br />
and where r is the ratio <strong>of</strong> infiltration to effective precipi-<br />
tation and qn is a measure <strong>of</strong> the time distribution <strong>of</strong> effective<br />
precipitation during the nth time interval. T is in reality a<br />
random variable, so that the ARMA model does n8t strictly des-<br />
cribe the streamflow process. However because T is usually<br />
restricted in its variations, the ARMA approximaeion may still<br />
be useful.<br />
(5) ,
368<br />
In many instances meteorologic information either in the<br />
form <strong>of</strong> raw-data or regional relations, such as maps, is avail-<br />
able where hydrologic data are not. Under such circumstances<br />
the parameters b and c can be defined as the expected values <strong>of</strong><br />
equations 4 and 5, and the meteorologic information can be used<br />
to fit parameters to the ARMA model in order to generate syn-<br />
thetic 5treamflow sequences. Parameters b and c were defined<br />
in this study by assuming the T for each month was a uniform<br />
random variable <strong>with</strong> a range from zero to one. These sequences<br />
can be used in design procedures, such as the sequent-peak<br />
algorithm <strong>of</strong> Thomas [71, in the same manner as actual observed<br />
discharge records. The model is not a perfect transfer mechanism,<br />
however, and the resulting designs will contain modeling errors<br />
in addition to the time-sampling errors that are inherent in the<br />
meteorologic data. Similar time-sampling errors would be inclu,ded<br />
in actual streamflow records were they available. Judgement <strong>of</strong><br />
the model as a design tool should be relative to the best avail-<br />
able alternative because <strong>of</strong> exact design methodology does not<br />
exist.<br />
If the ARMA model is used in the manner described above as<br />
a monthly streamflow generator, the statistical moments <strong>of</strong><br />
streamflow that will be preserved in the long run can be extracted<br />
from equation 1. The resulting correlation structure has been<br />
described by Moss [51. For the mean monthly streamflows a series<br />
<strong>of</strong> twelve linear equations is required:<br />
EIMnI = aEIMn-ll + bEIPn-lJ + cEIP<strong>nl</strong>, n = 2,12;<br />
12 12<br />
E[Mn] = c E[Pn]<br />
n= 1 n= 1<br />
where E[-] is the expected value or average <strong>of</strong> the variable con-<br />
tained <strong>with</strong>in the brackets. Similarly, for the variance and<br />
covariances <strong>of</strong> monthly streamflow<br />
Var [M ] = a2 Var IEln,ll + (b2 + 2abc) [Var Pn-ll<br />
n<br />
where Var 1.1 is the variance <strong>of</strong> the variable contained <strong>with</strong>in<br />
the brackets, and
= 1,12 i y = k-2-ke-2k- 2e -2k + 4e-k ] / Sk2<br />
369<br />
The coefficient 0.13 that appears In equation 8 was defined<br />
empirically by Monte Carlo methods by MOSS i51. The solutions <strong>of</strong><br />
these three sets <strong>of</strong> equations, although not necessary for the<br />
implementation <strong>of</strong> the model, yield estimates <strong>of</strong> the streamflow<br />
characteristics that can be examined for reasonableness prior<br />
to the design step.<br />
Data requirements for testing the model<br />
In order to test the model in a realistic design procedure,<br />
an existing 58-year streamflow record for the Toccoa River ne'ar<br />
Dial, Georgia, USA, was routed through a sequent peak algorithm<br />
to determine the reservoir capacity that would be required to<br />
meet the monthly water demands shown in figure 1. The demands<br />
described in figure 1 are hypothetical, but they vary seasonally<br />
in a realistic manner. The average demand is about fifty percent<br />
<strong>of</strong> the average streamflow, estimated from the existing record,<br />
for the Toccoa-Dial site.<br />
The ARMA model was subsequently used to generate 50 equally<br />
likely sequences <strong>of</strong> 58 years <strong>of</strong> monthly streamflow. For each<br />
synthetic sequence a reservoir capacity, which could be compared<br />
<strong>with</strong> that defined by the actual record, was determined. Precipi-<br />
tation records from an existing station, Blue Ridge Dam, that is<br />
approximately 5 miles downstream from the streamgaging station<br />
were used in conjunction <strong>with</strong> Thornthwaite 181 estimates <strong>of</strong><br />
evapotranspiration to estimate the mean monthly effective precipi-<br />
tation for each month. The standard deviations <strong>of</strong> monthly pre-<br />
cipitation for each month were assumed to be equal to those <strong>of</strong><br />
the measured precipitation at the Blue Ridge Dam site. The use<br />
<strong>of</strong> variance <strong>of</strong> point precipitation as a measure <strong>of</strong> variance <strong>of</strong><br />
precipitation over the basin tends to ovesestimate this parameter;<br />
however, because effective precipitation, which is the difference<br />
between precipitation and evapotranspiration, probably has a<br />
higher variance than precipitation, the assumption <strong>of</strong> variance<br />
<strong>of</strong> point precipitation as a surrogate for variance <strong>of</strong> basin-wide<br />
effective precipitation should not be unreasonable. The twelve<br />
estimates <strong>of</strong> mean effective precipitation and the twelve esti-<br />
mates <strong>of</strong> standard deviation <strong>of</strong> effective precipitation in<br />
conjunction <strong>with</strong> the assumption <strong>of</strong> log normality <strong>of</strong> effective<br />
precipitation were used to synthesize the 58-year records <strong>of</strong><br />
effective precipitation, which are converted to synthetic stream-<br />
flow records by the use <strong>of</strong> equation 1.<br />
Fitting <strong>of</strong> Parameters<br />
For the application <strong>of</strong> equations 6-8 to convert an effective<br />
rainfall to a run<strong>of</strong>f record, four inputs are necessary. First,<br />
<strong>of</strong> course, is the record <strong>of</strong> rainfall itself. Second, rainfall<br />
must be converted to rainfall excess by abstracting losses.
370<br />
This was done for the Toccoa basin through use <strong>of</strong> the Thornthwaite<br />
equation to estimate evapotranspiration. The Thornthwaite<br />
equation was chosen for reasons <strong>of</strong> simplicity. If adequate data<br />
were available a more accurate estimation might be made, such as<br />
by the Penman formula. Third, the separation <strong>of</strong> effective precipitation<br />
into direct run<strong>of</strong>f and infiltration must be performed<br />
by selecting r . Studies by the Tennessee Valley Authority<br />
n<br />
(Eklund, C. D., oral communication) indicate an average value<br />
<strong>of</strong> approximately 0.7 for r. This value was used for each month.<br />
Stochastic Simulation Results<br />
The utility <strong>of</strong> the methodology for deriving parameters for<br />
stochastic generation <strong>of</strong> streamflow was tested next. The parameters<br />
shown in figures 2-4 were used <strong>with</strong> an ARMA model to generate 50<br />
synthetic sequences <strong>of</strong> 58 years in length, the same length as<br />
the historical streamflow record. The sequent peak algorithm<br />
was then used <strong>with</strong> the demand curve <strong>of</strong> figure 1 to generate<br />
design reservoirs for each <strong>of</strong> the 50 sequences. The 50 design<br />
reservoirs for the synthetic sequences were then arrayed into<br />
a probability distriaition, as shown on figure 5. The distri-<br />
bution <strong>of</strong> design sizes is approyirnately normal. The mean value<br />
<strong>of</strong> the design size is fortuitously close to that size which was<br />
based upon the recorded flows.<br />
The apparent reason for the excellent agreement between<br />
average simulated and recorded design sizes probably results<br />
somewhat from compensating errors. The design storage is<br />
equivalent to about one-seventh <strong>of</strong> the mean annual flow. The<br />
excesses <strong>of</strong> demand over supply occur mai<strong>nl</strong>y during August to<br />
October. During that critical period the model overestimates<br />
both mean flow (figure 2), which tends to decrease storage<br />
requirement, and variability <strong>of</strong> flow, which tends to increase<br />
storage requirement (figure 3). The covariance structure is<br />
closely reproduced.<br />
Figure 5 indicates that the stochastic simulation is rela-<br />
tively realistic <strong>with</strong> respect to reservoir design size, which<br />
is related to the variance and the correlation structure <strong>of</strong><br />
flows. The fact that the actual record and the average <strong>of</strong> the<br />
synthetic records yield about the same design size indicates<br />
that the structure <strong>of</strong> the run<strong>of</strong>f series is maintained adequately.<br />
Therefore, in data-scarce areas, this approach may be a tool for<br />
use in project design.
1.<br />
2.<br />
3.<br />
4.<br />
5.<br />
6.<br />
7.<br />
8.<br />
References<br />
371<br />
Carter, R.F., (1970). Evaluation <strong>of</strong> the surface water data<br />
program in Georgia, U.S. Geol. Survey open-file report.<br />
Fiering, M.B., and Jackson, B.B., (1971). Synthetic<br />
Streamfiows, <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Monograph No. 1, American<br />
Geophysical Union, 98 p.<br />
Ber:son, M.A. , and Matalas, N.C., (1967). Synthetic <strong>Hydrology</strong><br />
based on regional statistical paramerers, <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong><br />
Research, 3(4), pp. 931-935.<br />
Thomas, D.M., and Benson, M.A., (1970). Generalization <strong>of</strong><br />
streamflow characteristics from drainage-basin character-<br />
istics, U.S. Geol. Survey <strong>Water</strong> Supply Paper 1975, 55 p.<br />
MOSS, M.E., (1972). Serial-Correlation Structure <strong>of</strong> Discre-<br />
tized Streamflow, U.S. Geol. Survey open-file report.<br />
O'Connell, P.E., (1971). A simple stochastic modeling <strong>of</strong><br />
Hurst's law, Symposium on Mathematical Models in <strong>Hydrology</strong>,<br />
IASH/UNESCO, Warsaw, Poland.<br />
Fiering, M.B., (1967). Streamflow synthesis, Cambridge,<br />
Harvard Univ. Press, p. 69-73.<br />
Veihmeyer, F.J., (1964). Evapotranspiration, in Handbook <strong>of</strong><br />
applied hydrology (edited by V. T. Chow), New York, McGraw-<br />
Hill CO., p. 11-26.
372<br />
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ABSTRACT<br />
CHCICE OF GENERATING MECHANISM IN SYNTHETIC<br />
HYDROLOGY WITH INADEQUATE DATA<br />
by<br />
P.E. O'CONNELL<br />
Department <strong>of</strong> Civil Engineering, Imperial College,<br />
University <strong>of</strong> London<br />
and<br />
J.R. WALLIS<br />
IBM T.J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights,<br />
New York 10598<br />
A formidable problem in synthetic hydrology is the choice <strong>of</strong> a<br />
model which will best represent the generating mechanism <strong>of</strong><br />
streamflow, which is unknown. Heret<strong>of</strong>ore, such a choice has primarily<br />
been based on a statistical matching between historic record parameters<br />
and the parameters <strong>of</strong> the generating mechanism. However, for<br />
short historic records, an equally good match may be obtained for a<br />
number <strong>of</strong> models and statistical tests are not powerful enough to<br />
determine the appropriate model. Alternative mechanisms, however, may<br />
yield quite different design results, resulting in either overdesign<br />
or underdesign <strong>with</strong> economic regrets in either case. It is suggested<br />
that an alternative approach to model choice would be a decision<br />
theoretic approach, where the choice <strong>of</strong> model is based on an economic<br />
regret function, and where the model which gives the minimum overall<br />
regrets would be the appropriate choice. An example <strong>of</strong> this approach<br />
is given where flows are generated by a lag-one Markoj and an ARI A<br />
(1, O, 11 process and the secuent peak algorithm is u ilised in a<br />
deterministic sense for reservoir design together <strong>with</strong> simple economic<br />
regret functions.<br />
RESUME<br />
Un problème trzs difficile de lrhydrologie synthetique crest<br />
ltadoption d'un modele lequel reprgsente le mieux le mecanisme gênétatrice<br />
de l'écoulement, lequel est inconnu. Jusqu'ici ce choix été<br />
fondé principalement sur un assortiment des parametres des données<br />
historiques avec des parametres du mécanisme génératrice, Toutefois,<br />
en cas des relevés historiques courts on obtient peutêtre un assortiment<br />
aussi bien en employant plusieurs modeles et les épreuves statistiques<br />
n'onts pas assez fortes pour détermin'e la modèle propre.<br />
Toutefois, les autres mécanismes donnent peutêtre les touts autres<br />
résultats pour dessein, le rêsultat est le sur-dessein ou le sous-<br />
-dessein accompanid en tout cas pap des regrets economiques., On prop'ose<br />
que l'approche alternatif au choix de la modèle est llqpproche de<br />
la théorie des decisions par lequel le choix de la modèle est fond6<br />
sur une fonction des regrets economiques et par lequel la modêle qui<br />
fourni les moins regrets totals sera le choix propre. Un exemple de<br />
cette approche est fourni quand les écoulements sont produi't par un<br />
procéds Markovien de deu1 retard et un proc6dé ASEVA 0, O, 12 et<br />
l'algorithme des pics successifs est utilisé au sens déterministique<br />
pour le dessein du réservoir avec des fonctions de regrets economiques<br />
egales.<br />
Y
378<br />
Introduction<br />
The ootid desig, <strong>of</strong> a water resource EF:E~~Z reqzres 'slowledge <strong>of</strong><br />
future flows <strong>with</strong>in t h elstem, which, i- tu--r., ITlies tkat :Be gcze-xting<br />
process <strong>of</strong> the tows is k<strong>of</strong>i. Eowever, the gtrerazirg Srocess <strong>of</strong> srreamflow<br />
is gererallg &om, 2.~5 lilirelv projectiors 05 %hre zlous, callec -T-thetic<br />
strezzflows, may be gererated using approxic-:iozs to tbe UrCsrlyirg gereratirg<br />
process.<br />
(a)<br />
(b)<br />
The apFros3ation procedure involves. -<br />
the postulation <strong>of</strong> t'ne underlybg generatirg Frocess ar6 its specification<br />
through a set <strong>of</strong> przeters,<br />
the estimtion <strong>of</strong> the parameter values from a historic sequence, or<br />
through some alterrative strategy.<br />
Some generating processes cvreztly availatle, proFrties <strong>of</strong> historic<br />
secperces, and techniques <strong>of</strong> paraneter estinztio: inU now be considered<br />
briefly.<br />
Gener2tir.g Trocosses<br />
The postulation <strong>of</strong> a generatirg process kas 'reret<strong>of</strong>ore been b e d on its<br />
ability to generste sjrthetic stremÎlows resez5lirg historic streznflows in<br />
terms <strong>of</strong> pärameters whic'n are thougit to inflilerce the äesie OÏ the water<br />
resorce system, [I), which necessitates that tte 3rocess re3reserts a redistic<br />
model <strong>of</strong> streamflow. The lag-oze ?%rkov process 'caä 5ee3 rather widely<br />
accepted as beizg ca-pble <strong>of</strong> fulfillizg this l2:ter role mtll discrete time<br />
fractional Gaussiul noise (dfGn) was aävocateä as s more resiistic moäel <strong>of</strong><br />
strezÏlow [2]. The spent for dfG3 as a ereriting process oÏ streãmflow<br />
finds its roots in the work <strong>of</strong> Hurst [:I, [4f u50 foud that, for some 800<br />
geopkrsical tine series, including streanflow<br />
- - 1 1<br />
S<br />
h<br />
where Iz/S is temed the rescaled ra^ge a d n is th-e record ler-gth. The<br />
expone'it h in equation (1) was found to have a a7e:age value OÏ 0.73 uith a<br />
stank-d deviati02 <strong>of</strong> O.Ca. For the lag-oae 3k-207 process =fi other processes<br />
lying <strong>with</strong>iri the BroEis Comain <strong>of</strong> attractioz, h equals 0.5, uhile for dfûn,<br />
h q v assume ayy value in the rGge C < h < 1, vit2 the excepriori <strong>of</strong> h = 0.5,<br />
and b C.5 <strong>of</strong> particular interesi. Values o? h > C.5 are<br />
s~-no;nous <strong>with</strong> long te,- srcistexe, vith the distat psr; exertizg mall<br />
but azable effects on present behaviour.<br />
The gelieration <strong>of</strong> a Lszmple <strong>of</strong> d-Gn req-aires infixite Ember <strong>of</strong> operatios,<br />
azd, con~equeztk~, a~~roxinaiio?s are reTïred ir, oräer to Io-date<br />
dfG2 =s an operational gsreratkg process. Tses? assro-xkatioïs w e quite<br />
:oces <strong>of</strong> szem3ou dictirct fron the agroe=z:ioz or' t're gezerz;irn - _<br />
refezred to Tr3rLouslr ; -&e a~~z-o.sirsziors 10 è3z äm -2$rss17es sx5sequeitly<br />
used to approxicsite the gererating srocess <strong>of</strong> sirsmflou.
To date, a =.aber <strong>of</strong> z_nproximtions to d3n ha7e been >-o?ored. Y%zdelbrot<br />
i53 kzs proposed B fast d% approximatiori, wLich requires less ore~atiozs ;CI<br />
elierzte t?mn the tyge I ard II fractiord noise ap?roxinntio-s Frooosed ;-;tially<br />
LJ , Cut he did rot extend the docuieentäïion to the level iecesszyy for syr-tetic<br />
i~y.gdrolo~. &,ser5 02 the tne II ayproxibtio: Tropsed initidly by Yzlldelkot<br />
aLd Ydis [o], Y'tzhs =à Y&is [7] L57e pro-osed a filtered ,'ractionzl<br />
noise asproximatioil, and have formulated the gezeratizg process for the puTses <strong>of</strong> sgzthetic hydrology in terns <strong>of</strong> the ppiation rea, vzriarce, lag-or-e exiocorrelation<br />
u-d h, the Hust coefficienz. The KXP! (l,O,l) process [S) IFS<br />
beeo found by O'CozeU [g] to <strong>of</strong>fer a sirple appr<strong>of</strong>ixtion to dSs. The a ~roxicatioi<br />
is sufficiect in the serse, that, for a certais rage <strong>of</strong> pûzameter Taues<br />
adecute agreemerc uith Burst's law (e-tion (1)) is obtaired uithin sequezces<br />
which are sufficiel;tlg lorg for the purooses <strong>of</strong> syctììetic hyckolog. More<br />
recently, the broke2 line orocess has been progosed by Kejia et zl [IGJ as e<br />
model <strong>of</strong> the gezorati-g process <strong>of</strong> strezflow ; houever, ì-kdelbrot [Il] hzs<br />
shorn that the broke2 line process may be regzzded nìerely as zz ¿?.;prOxiuEtiGZ<br />
to fractional Gaussian noise.<br />
Historic Seauences<br />
Frequently, a historic seauence <strong>of</strong> a-~uai streamflow has been relied upr<br />
to determine the existence 9. aon-existence <strong>of</strong> persistence thereir. For this<br />
pu-?pose, tests <strong>of</strong> significbnce for inde-zdence zre available bâsed on the<br />
theory <strong>of</strong> runs [12], LI31 ar-d the distrikation <strong>of</strong> the 12 -one serial correlation<br />
coefficient [1q. However, Wallis a d Patalas [75! have fomd that for<br />
a variety <strong>of</strong> such tests, the probability <strong>of</strong> type II error (i.e. the probability<br />
<strong>of</strong> accepting the rull hypothesis <strong>of</strong> independeme when it is false) is extrerely<br />
high for the sequexe lengths usually avzilable in hydrology.<br />
<strong>of</strong> persistence, estimates oi the lag-one autocorrelation tend to be biased<br />
towards zero, <strong>with</strong> the bias increasing <strong>with</strong> the intensity <strong>of</strong> the persistence,<br />
and to this latter Îact may be ascribed o=e <strong>of</strong> the reasons for the low power<br />
<strong>of</strong> the Acderson test. Where storage design is to be considered, the econorcic<br />
cor:sequences <strong>of</strong> ty-e II errors may welì be costly. Assuming that evidence <strong>of</strong><br />
persistexe has Leer established, the hisioric sequence h s generdly been<br />
relied upon to &-Ovide reliable evidence as to uhich ge2eratiig Eechanism is<br />
the appropriate ore for the flows. A model <strong>of</strong> the mderlyicg geserating<br />
necliacism is fitted EO the historic sequence, and goodness <strong>of</strong> fit testS.De<br />
then enployed to àetermine the adeauacy 05 the model. A set <strong>of</strong> procedures for<br />
model €itti% ami vdidatios &ve been set out by Box axd Je-&ir?s [SI; however,<br />
while s ~ch procedees may provide reliable resdts for the locger recorded<br />
sequerces U S ~ Y<br />
In the presezce<br />
available in industry E d economics, they are liable to<br />
pyovide misleadkg results for 'short' mual strearflow sequences. A question<br />
mises as to what length <strong>of</strong> record pay be considered 'short' ; uithout digressing<br />
too much, i; suflices to say th-t as 1or;g-terrn persisterce increases,<br />
the hfornztion coztent <strong>of</strong> a record [IÓ] decre- =ses.<br />
While the kg-oze autocorrelation has bee? used in the _past as a measure<br />
<strong>of</strong> Fereistence, it essentially measures ody &ort-te,ri -ersistexce, ad, to<br />
quzzitify long-term Frsistezce, other messures must be used. While h, the<br />
Emst coeîficierit, is a measure <strong>of</strong> long term -xrsistezce, estimates from sms-ll<br />
sansles gererated a lag oie Karkov process c d arrolaoatiox zo dftrri havc<br />
beer sko~?: to be hi- biased and extrezrly vz-iable, 1V++ a d therefore II-relisbible<br />
for chooaì=& betmees short memoLT processes for ubi@ h = 0.5 and 10%<br />
379
380<br />
memory processes, for which h > 0.5. Xore receLtly, Wallis ard O'Cozell k81<br />
have attempted to separate sequences genented by a lolig nezory LW! (l,O,l)<br />
process from seq-Jences generated by a short meao,ry lag ore Yzrirov process<br />
using the distribution ol US, the rescaled rmgo, deriveä t ~ough Xocte Carlo<br />
simulrtions. For the sequelice le-gths w d l y anilable ic. hydrology, they<br />
foud that reliable sepration was not possible.<br />
Historic sequences have bee:: suggested by Slack 1191 as sometimes providir4<br />
little more tha? ari illugoil <strong>of</strong> what the wderlyi-4 gezeratizg process is, 2c<br />
a sizgle realization <strong>of</strong> H stochastic process will rarely 'have Ezaple estimates<br />
<strong>of</strong> parameters e q d to their populatiozi counter-ts. Irdeed, Clack has also<br />
noted that a gereratirg crocess mg 6ezy itself ir the seXe that the process<br />
may generate firite sänylrs to wnich the gezeratirg process itself W o t be<br />
fitted. Slack 123J has illustrated this point more fully for a miltivaiate<br />
lag-ore Markov process, for which certain constraicts exist OP the raqe <strong>of</strong><br />
serial and cross correlations that the process ca3 acceyt.<br />
Coxequectly, the<br />
fact that a historic sequence yields prameter estimates macceptable to a<br />
model cannot be readily taken as evidence that the model is an inappropriate<br />
one.<br />
For the univariate lag-one Markov process, the question <strong>of</strong> 'self denial'<br />
does rot arise as estiusates <strong>of</strong> pl, the lag one aitocorrelation, will always<br />
lie in the range -1 < e, < 1, for uhich values <strong>of</strong> the process is stationary,<br />
and flous will be real-vdued. However, for dfGn, waich for zero mean and unit<br />
variace, is characterized by the covariance structure<br />
where s is the lag and h is the Hurst coefficient, ssmple statistics be<br />
in conflict <strong>with</strong> the covariance structure <strong>of</strong> the nodel. Approximations to dfGn<br />
serve to approximate the covariance structure C(s,h), where C(l,h) is uniquely<br />
specified by h. As the pocess is specified bhre unit varizce, then C(l,h)<br />
is the lag one serial correlztion, Q,, which for li > 0.5 must be positive, as<br />
must C(s,h) for s > 1.<br />
Eowever, finite sequences from a gezerating proce?<br />
<strong>with</strong> a covariance structure approGnating C(s,k! rzq yield h > 0.5 unile QI < O,<br />
or, alternatively, h < 0.5 while el > O, which are incopatible <strong>with</strong> the<br />
structure <strong>of</strong> the model. However, the dari model isI\employed primily to<br />
preserve 102% ruII effects 2.s evidenced by values <strong>of</strong> h > 9.5, a d the evidence<br />
supplied bx QI, which is a measure <strong>of</strong> short run effects, nag be ignored.<br />
Provided QI > C and h > û.5, the filtered type II ayproxioratioil proposed by<br />
Matalss and Wallis [7] zlloïs the sinultarieous :reservation oÎ estimates <strong>of</strong><br />
QI azd h through the ixorporation <strong>of</strong> an extrs filterizg yameter into the<br />
generating process. As a result, the form <strong>of</strong> the covariace Îwction for dfGn<br />
not be closely followeä for small s- while for large s, the differerce<br />
shoulà be negligible.<br />
The possibility <strong>of</strong> 'self-denial' eests for the ARIEiA (1 ,O,l) process.<br />
In or6er to ensure that the process is statiore? ar6 invertible, t)ïe Lwple<br />
space for the paneters <strong>of</strong> the pzocess, azd a, skown i2 figure (la) is<br />
defired as -1 < # < +I, -1 < 8 < +I. The corres-rciirg Lssrifle -ce for QI<br />
and e2 is sho.ir.11 iri figre (13). Hoïever, fizite -les froa the process<br />
may well yield estimtes oÎ pl u.d e2 lyhg ouiside the zcceptabìe rage.
3 81<br />
As a remit, a historic sequence m o t be relied u-pn to -est the<br />
correct generatkg process for the flous, 2nd ET well lezd to 2 moàel beicg<br />
selected uhich is not reyesentative <strong>of</strong> the gereratixg rec'mim <strong>of</strong> streamflou,<br />
Houever, parameter estication t hrow statistics zes-mred is. .zi historic<br />
sequerce is lugely relied upon for matching a gezeraticg process n th a his-<br />
toric streamflom sequence.<br />
Parezeter Estimtion<br />
hs already ooted, a geuerating process is geaerally specified by a set<br />
<strong>of</strong> population Faeters, denoted as {a] = (aq,u2, ... aE), estimtes <strong>of</strong> uhich<br />
must be obtained from a historic sequezce before tie generating process may be<br />
rendered operatioral. For the lag-ore Ykrkov process, the set { a 1 usu2i.l~<br />
comprises the me=, vziriaxe, skeuness a d lag-ore autocorrelation 2t each<br />
site, and in the ttiuìtisite case, lag-zero cross-correlatioss betveeri sites.<br />
For qproximatiors to dL%, sn additiorial parmeter, the Hurst coefficieat,<br />
is izcluded. For estimztioa purposes, the mettod <strong>of</strong> moments is gezErallg<br />
emploFed [I ] <strong>with</strong> the L.mall sample moment estimate <strong>of</strong> a parameter, a$, obtained<br />
from a historic sequence or' length n bei% equated to its correspondxg pop dation parameter in the generating process, ai. Such a procedure assumes<br />
that<br />
E [",3 = a<br />
n<br />
i.e. that the estimate ai is statistically unbiased. However, in the presence<br />
<strong>of</strong> persistence, recent sicdies have shown that this assumption is not justified<br />
<strong>with</strong> respect to estimates <strong>of</strong> the variance [21], leg-one autocorrelation [I51<br />
and the Hurst coefficient [I?].<br />
The bias affects the resemblance uhich is<br />
obtei2ed between historic axxi synthetic sequences, and is likely to adversely<br />
influence system desigri Mess some small sample bias corrections are applied<br />
to the estimates. Io order to illustrate this liztter point, the small sample<br />
properties <strong>of</strong> generatiw processes rnust be considered.<br />
Small Sample Prouerties o0 Ge-eleratirE Processes<br />
!The lag-one biarkov generating process m y be specified as<br />
where p 6 and p are the pophtion mean, variance and lag-one autocorrelation<br />
coefficient, and et is an edependectly distributed random nomal variable<br />
<strong>with</strong> zero mean ard unit vâriance. Estimation <strong>of</strong> the paraneters e, 6 and p<br />
will cou be considered.<br />
In equation (2), e may be estimated as the lag-one serial correlation<br />
coefficient uhence,
382<br />
ñouever, avaïL&le estkators <strong>of</strong> pl yield biased estimates <strong>of</strong> e [UJ. If<br />
the estimator oÏ QI suggested by Box a d Je_nkins is used, then e approximately<br />
satisfies<br />
For n = 25 and e= 0.3, aen E[@] = 0.21. If equation (3) is rearranged then<br />
E@] + l/n<br />
e =<br />
(4)<br />
1 - 4/n<br />
A<br />
If e is obtahed :rom a historic sequence <strong>of</strong> size n using the Box and Jenkins<br />
algorithm, and E{Q] is replaced by 6 in equation (4) then the ensuirg<br />
Ii<br />
estizate, e *, hill be Enroximately urtbissed. If Q is used in equation (21,<br />
then estimates <strong>of</strong> the lzg-o?e autocorrelation measured in synthetic sequences<br />
<strong>of</strong> size u, e , will satisfy<br />
while, if the length <strong>of</strong> a synthetic sequence approaches infinity, then<br />
i.e.<br />
<strong>with</strong><br />
where<br />
the proper resemblance ia maintained between historic and sythetic sequences<br />
respect to the lag oce autocorrelation.<br />
then while<br />
2<br />
If the small sample estimate <strong>of</strong> the variance, 6 , is defined as<br />
'> n<br />
s2 = (Xt -1) 2<br />
n- 1<br />
t=l<br />
2<br />
If g = O, then E {s 1 = 62 uhile if Q > O then fh, Q> is positive, uhereby<br />
s2 terds to underestimate 8, <strong>with</strong> th2 bias iilcreasing as e ixreases afd<br />
n decreases. For LL = 25 c d = 0.5, f(n,Q> = C.963, SO tkt the bias Kill<br />
ger-erdly not be too severe for m-ual streamflou sequences. 3 order to correct<br />
for the bias in E? mezs-zed in a historic sequence, a unbiased estimate oÎ the<br />
populztion variszce 2 %,y be defined as<br />
a2 = s2/f(n,p (8)<br />
A<br />
(5)
vhereupon<br />
E{$] = E{s2J/f(n,,) = 6 2<br />
"2<br />
so ttat 6 wiii be unbised. Hoïever, the foregoing correction- procedure pre-<br />
m e s that e is Lcco~",, &de, k practice, od? ar estfate, 8 , rill be<br />
avzïilzble. .In tkis sitti-tiori =y be corrected for tis ii6 &ea* outlked<br />
and ar: estimate <strong>of</strong> the vzrkce del'bed as<br />
^62 = s2/f(n, e*> (9)<br />
and that<br />
h<br />
may be evaluated at the expected &lue <strong>of</strong> Q' which yields<br />
then<br />
Hvïever, neither <strong>of</strong> the above two assu+ions are liable to hold, c d a2 a<br />
result, difficulty is eilcoutered in definirg irnbiaseci estimate <strong>of</strong> 6 .<br />
Nevertheless, equation (9) is likely to yield FS estimzte <strong>of</strong> & which is more<br />
appoxinstely wbissed than the straightformd estimate yielded by eqwtiozi<br />
(51 9<br />
383<br />
A''<br />
Using p, 6 as defired in eauation (9) a d e* as defined in equation (41,<br />
a synthetic seculice OZ size n nay be generated using eywitiol? (2). If g2<br />
denotes aa esthte <strong>of</strong> the variaxe mewed tkerein usi% equation (5) then :-<br />
2<br />
E($) a s<br />
while if the leqth <strong>of</strong> a synthetic sequexe aPyoaches kfinity, then aporoxii_<br />
matelg :<br />
E@> -6<br />
2
3 84<br />
A2<br />
where IS is defired via equation (9). Hence tFe correction procedure allows<br />
the growr resenMance betueen historic and synthetic sequences to be ubzirtzhed<br />
aporoemtely.<br />
A further quentie uKch may be <strong>of</strong> interest in rece--voir desigil studies<br />
is the variance <strong>of</strong> the sanple mea, 8, uhich for equatiori (2) is given as [2$] :-<br />
nhkh is the variace <strong>of</strong> the sample mean for an indeperdont rmdom procefis.<br />
However, foz Q > O, the term in braces is positive and greater than unity,<br />
vhereupon 6 will be larger t h for a randon time series. Hence if the iaformation<br />
contert <strong>of</strong> a sequezce is defized as the reciproczi <strong>of</strong> the vdance <strong>of</strong><br />
the -?le mean [16], thea, as persisteme increases, tke information coatent<br />
relative to the mean decreases. For e= 0.3 aLd n = 25<br />
6m<br />
= 0.0724 cr2<br />
Nevertheless, it should be noted that the lag-one Y!kov process is<br />
esseritially a short memory process for which h = 0.5. Ir. the preseme <strong>of</strong> locg<br />
term persistence, when 0.5 < h < 1, smdì sam?le biases in estimates <strong>of</strong> the<br />
variarce ar,d lag-one autocorrelation become more severe. and the vaziame <strong>of</strong><br />
the sample mean-tends to i-crease. For dan, the variarce <strong>of</strong> the szmple mean<br />
is given as<br />
2<br />
2<br />
-- 6<br />
(12)<br />
- 2-2h<br />
n<br />
2<br />
where IS is the variance<br />
result for white noise.<br />
2<br />
<strong>of</strong> the process. For b = 0.5, 6 reduces<br />
For h = 0.7, for which el = 0.30, and n<br />
3.6246 2<br />
- - = 0.145 6 2<br />
- 25<br />
to the<br />
= 25<br />
Comprison <strong>of</strong> equations (11) and (12) illustrstes that for dsz, and, consecuentlg,<br />
for agroximitio-s thereto, estimtes <strong>of</strong> -the -?le me= are auch more varizble<br />
and meliable, than for the lag-one I.'!kov &ort memoq process.<br />
Unfortunately, little is b o m <strong>of</strong> the s-3u sample u-operties <strong>of</strong> the aoproximatiocs<br />
to dan proposed bp Mandelbrot 151, ?!!'das ar0 Kdis [7] and Xejia<br />
et al; [IO], and equatiog (12) will o<strong>nl</strong>y be apFoximatelg true. An -tic<br />
derivation <strong>of</strong> such proprties would apear to Se a extreselg &iÎficult tz&<br />
in the face <strong>of</strong> the comaex mthemtical prooerties <strong>of</strong> tle approdmations. €?QU-<br />
ever; tlie LRDiA (I,O,I) p-ocess is mathemticdly more tractable and some scull,<br />
e l e results s v be derived.
The ABMB (l,O,l) generaticg process is &fined as<br />
where p and 6 are the nean and sLa&d deviatioa, $ zrd Q are the parameters<br />
<strong>of</strong> t'ne process, E d qt is u irdeperclent rzdom varille. ne varhce o? /7<br />
must be defined 2s<br />
var 3, = +%E&- I+&- L<br />
Estirates <strong>of</strong> the parameters jZf 2nd O ~7 be dertved from 2 historic, sequence<br />
throqh estinatirg el z d p2, the hg-0r.e =à lag-two zutocorrelation coefî-<br />
icierts, or tho;@ mir: the more efficient rethod <strong>of</strong> -&m likelihood. [8]<br />
Alterzztively, e!, and f my be used to defire estimtes <strong>of</strong> j? and 8. For<br />
aporoximatiors to dr%, estimates <strong>of</strong> h Lid e 1 Lime bee= &om to be bizsed,<br />
As h is not<br />
vith tke SiEs kcreaskg kith ircresLzg h 2zd el I [17, 151.<br />
385<br />
theoretically de5red ai diff3rer.t from 0.5 for the AXPA (l,O,l) process,<br />
which nevertheless yieldsAE fh] in the raxge C.5 to 1 for moderateJO large<br />
values <strong>of</strong> n, the bias iil h is difficult to Ruztify. E e bias in el could<br />
possibly be defired ardflim3.ly.k aAsinily fâshion to tkat for the lag-ore<br />
Markov process. Even if the b is in h zid could be defired, the appropiate<br />
bias correctiors m y not be copatiblz [19]. xri alterzative aggroach is to<br />
approximately. rztch observed Qq a d h values iri a =>le <strong>of</strong> size n <strong>with</strong> the<br />
aprro3riate Z {el] ard E 17 values for the ARRIT2 (l,O,l) process pre-<br />
defiEed through exteEsive Monte Carlo simulatioris [25]. This approach<br />
obviates the necessity lor bias corrections, but the estiptor <strong>of</strong> h adopted<br />
for the simulatios, giyen ifi [4),<br />
n<br />
h = K = {hg. (R/S)] / [Log "/2 1 (14)<br />
does not allow sufficient variability in E{ ^h] between afferent ,sets <strong>of</strong> para-<br />
meter values to effect a reliable match.<br />
If the snail sample estimate <strong>of</strong> the variace is defined as io equation (51,<br />
then O'Connell 12.1 !ES &om that<br />
2<br />
E(s,) = 6<br />
where pl is the lag-oze autocorrelation defined as<br />
= (1 - $QI($ - 6)<br />
(1 + g2 - a)<br />
(15)<br />
(16)<br />
0'CoI;ileI.l [g] 0-r noted tbt vdues <strong>of</strong> $ in the rmge 2.50 < j? < 0.95 are <strong>of</strong><br />
interest i2 modelling lox te-ai._rersislezìce ; for suc3 values <strong>of</strong> $ m d for<br />
values <strong>of</strong> el us-:âïïy ercourtered for amua1 szreaflo*', the bias in s2 is<br />
gererqy h-ge. for L = 25, Q<br />
= 0.3 and #.= 0.85, ?(E, e:, $1 = 0.877,<br />
while, if $ = C.95, f(r, p?,$.> = 0.789. For fixed QI, sz ixrease in j?!<br />
reFGesezts ax +crease ia the iitersity <strong>of</strong> 10%-term persisterce, as eviderceà
386<br />
by higiler observed values <strong>of</strong> h, the Hurst coefficient [ 91.<br />
As for the kg-orie Yarkov orocess, zn =biased estinate <strong>of</strong> ci<br />
2<br />
,<br />
42<br />
6 , may be<br />
defined, a s d g that $ acd 8, or, equivdently, J?f azd QI, are boni<br />
However, in practice, o- estimates <strong>of</strong> e ard Ø will be available, and a<br />
sinilzr problem to that encountered for the la- one Ymkov process is met in<br />
attemptirg to defize an unbiased estimate <strong>of</strong> I?:<br />
-<br />
The variance <strong>of</strong> the sample mean, X for the ARIFA (l,O,l) process i$ given<br />
1253<br />
For el = !¿f, for u ~ c h the ARPIA (l,O,l) process reduces to the lag-one Markov<br />
process, equatiori (18) reduces to equation (11). Values <strong>of</strong> corresponding<br />
to large values oÏ j! reflect the low frequencies inherent in an approxiFtion<br />
For $ = c.85, PI = 0.3 and n = 25, Um2 = 0.15862 which compares<br />
to dfûn.<br />
trith equation (12) for dfGn <strong>with</strong> h = 0.7.<br />
Impact <strong>of</strong> Choice <strong>of</strong> Generatiig Process on System <strong>Design</strong><br />
In the abseme <strong>of</strong> sufficiently lo= streamflow sequences to determine<br />
whether or.not lozg term persistence exists for a particular stream, and,<br />
lacking =y sound -&ysical basis for the ctoice <strong>of</strong> a generating process, consideratior<br />
must be even to the influence <strong>of</strong> choice <strong>of</strong> generating process on<br />
water resource system design.<br />
Few studies to date have investigated the sersi-<br />
tivity <strong>of</strong> system äesip to choice <strong>of</strong> gereratirg process for zmud streanflow.<br />
Wallis and Matalas [: 211 have studied the effects <strong>of</strong> long tern persistence on<br />
reservoir desigri through assuming prior knowledge <strong>of</strong> p and 6 2nd assessing the<br />
impact <strong>of</strong> h on the äesign, W n g accomc <strong>of</strong> mall sample biases in estimates<br />
<strong>of</strong> p1 a d 18 in the' Lr analysis. The reservoir desigr: Y ~ S evolved using the<br />
sequent Fe& algorith, which was used to determine the minimum reservoir size<br />
necessary to meet 2 specified level <strong>of</strong> demd a expressed as a proportioli o€<br />
the observed averzge ITOU over the desi= period. For t'ûe desip considereä,<br />
the required reservo-ir capcity was fourd to depend on the mwitudes <strong>of</strong> h azd<br />
For equd e-cted vaues <strong>of</strong> the variance, E id), and the lag-one<br />
el.<br />
autocorreletion, E [e?), in desigr sequezces <strong>of</strong> length I?, and €or a > 0.80,<br />
approxicitions to 12-m <strong>with</strong> h > 0.5 yieloed reservoir sizes coxiderably in<br />
excess <strong>of</strong> those yielded by the lapone E%-kov process, thus e nmising the<br />
relative impact or^ long-term acd short-term persistence on the design.<br />
By consideri--6 the water resource -stem design process, a basis emerges<br />
for the ckoice <strong>of</strong> a ge3eratizg process. A ge-eratirg process cas be postulated<br />
as beiri; tbt <strong>of</strong> the real worlä,.ad an oFtimd desigz evolved on this basis.<br />
Assuri$iors may thei be made concerzing tìe ideitity <strong>of</strong> the real world, acd<br />
the ecected reFets accrui3g from each assmotion my be evaluated. The procedure<br />
w be repeated for each postulated gexeratiF4 process for the real
world, <strong>with</strong> the ssuaei? generztirg process yielding the ~~ici~~m overall regrets<br />
representkg the 251~ro~riite ckoice. A simil- strategr has Seen employed by<br />
P?t&s acd YaXis [26J for the selection <strong>of</strong> a frequency distribution for the<br />
evalmtion <strong>of</strong> a design flood magnitude.<br />
3 07<br />
A critical fictor in the choice <strong>of</strong> a gere-rating process concerrs the<br />
ercistexe azd the intersity <strong>of</strong> long-term persistence to be mocelìed in synthetic<br />
sequerces. Co-zequentLv, a set <strong>of</strong> si&tioz eqerimeris were evolved 25<br />
folious to dete,-mir;e strategies n th respect to long-term persistence, z ~ d<br />
to cetermine wke-her or rot, in the presexe <strong>of</strong> long-te,- persistence, bias<br />
corrections reed to be ap-lied to estimtes <strong>of</strong> the varizce azd lag-one auto-<br />
correlatisn measured in historic sequerces in o-der to obtaic realistic àesis<br />
results.<br />
Tuo generatkg processes uere adogted for the simulstion experiments,<br />
the lâg-oxe Markov process represexting short-term persistence and the ARPA<br />
(l,O,l) process represeztiq lorg-term persistelice. For the Latter process,<br />
the izterisity <strong>of</strong> long-ten persisterce may be cottrolled by the parameter 6,<br />
consequent-, a value OÏ Ø = 0.85 YES M e n as represeEzing a medium intensity<br />
<strong>of</strong> lo-g-term persistence uhile a value <strong>of</strong> ff = C.95 was selected to model a<br />
strozg intensity <strong>of</strong> 10%-te-m persistecce. Heme, the real uorid was assumed<br />
to be lag-one hrkov or ARIKA (l,O,l) <strong>with</strong> $ = 0.85 or f = 0.95 yielding 3<br />
possible choices for the real world, identified by indices r = l,2,3.<br />
An o ptid design is required for each world, and a proceckire had to be<br />
evolved for evaluating the desip, which was defined as the minimum reservoir<br />
size necessu'y to meet 2 set <strong>of</strong> tzrget demands over the i?esig period rid,<br />
which was taken as 100 gears. Rather than defire the tzrget demands relztive<br />
to the samole me= <strong>of</strong> the design sequence, the demar,ds uere defined BS percect-<br />
ages <strong>of</strong> the population meax <strong>of</strong> the r ed world so 2s to dlow the design to<br />
reflect more fully the varizbility <strong>of</strong> the =?ïe mean mong different uorlds.<br />
To permit a com-ison between optimal äesigr-s €or diÎferent worlds, each<br />
world was defined to hâve population parameters p and 6 such that<br />
and<br />
SES2] ,* = 9<br />
&e appro-priate values <strong>of</strong> 6 to be used i?l the gene=tiag *processes %v be<br />
defired fron eoiutions (9) iLld (17) for the lG-one Nzkov azà ARDA (l,O,l)<br />
processes, respeciively. The sequent ~3s.k algorithm u s use6 to evalute the<br />
reserroir size, xxch YS defired 2s the mir?iia size slick tbt the reservoir<br />
rum C-p at host oxe orer the Cesis, period 'cui; suc3 tkt =e target de-~ds are dwqs met [F]. %e de-d levels iàentiiied by izcices k = 1,2,3 ïere<br />
defeea 2s 75%, 85$ ana 955 <strong>of</strong> the populatioz cean = 70, which, in przctice,
388<br />
may redt in overdevelopmeat relative to the sample mean for a design sequexe.<br />
ñowever, the sequent algorithm 2s originzllg formillatea by Thomas<br />
and Errrdez 1281 czot hardle levels <strong>of</strong> develo~ent greater t h unity. In<br />
this sitiztion, the reservoir size was Bc-i-ic defined as for the case <strong>of</strong> urder-<br />
develo-ert usiLg 2 computer zlgorithm, <strong>with</strong> the initiâl reservoir storage<br />
neceesr-yy to zvoFd deficiercies beilig assiuned zvailable. For each world, o otid<br />
desi,--s sere defT2ed as the expected reoervoir size for design, sequesces <strong>of</strong><br />
lezgth "C-3 for kg-one autocorrelatiors e1 = 0.1, 0.3, 0.5 idectified by iräices<br />
j = l,í!,3 and de-ds 7.5, 8.5 ard 9.5 s m e d uniform over the ciesign period.<br />
The &!orite Carlo eweriments to be perfoned =y now be defined 2s follows.<br />
For each choice <strong>of</strong> real world the eqected reservoir size is denoted as<br />
E { (r, j,k)) for real world r <strong>with</strong> lag-one zutocorrelations j arid for level<br />
<strong>of</strong> äe~elopent k, {r,j,k = l,2,3] , and is defized through repetitive smplizg<br />
<strong>of</strong> desip sequences <strong>of</strong> lergth 100 for which equations (19) and (2û) hold for<br />
r,j = 1,2,3.<br />
In order to assess the effects <strong>of</strong> bias correctious on the regrets, a6 uelì<br />
as essmptions about long-term persistence, the following Monte Czrlo samplirg<br />
proceduzes were defked.<br />
(1) Generate a 'historic' sequence identified by index i and length n =<br />
50, 100 for world r <strong>with</strong> kg-one autocorrelation 2, decoted as {X I i,n,r,<br />
(2) hssirme the hi,storic sequence is gezerated by an assumed world <strong>with</strong> index<br />
1 = l,2,3, where the values <strong>of</strong> the index 1 refer to the same worlds as identical<br />
values <strong>of</strong> the index r. Estimates <strong>of</strong> the meari D, variance aí!, ard lag-one zutocorrelation<br />
PI are obtaired, at zhich juncture bias corrections may or may not<br />
be applied to #(i,D,r,j,l) and e (i,n,r,j,l). For 1 = 2,3, knowledge <strong>of</strong> the<br />
assumed world includes krowledge o$ the paranezer Ø(1).<br />
A 4 fi<br />
(3) Using p(i,n,r,j,l), 6 (i,n,r,j,l) ard el(i,n,r, j,l) (and $(i) for 1 = 2,3)<br />
a desim sequence oÎ length nd = 100 is generated, whereupon, for k = '1,2,3, a<br />
design reservoir size is evaluated, denoted as h (i,E,r,j,k,l), which is the<br />
reservoir size for a level <strong>of</strong> develoyezt k for desiga sequence i gecerated<br />
by a? asmed world 1. The pzraneters <strong>of</strong> the assumeä world are estimated from<br />
a historic sequecce <strong>of</strong> length n from a real world r <strong>with</strong> lag-one autocorrelation<br />
index j. An overciesigii or uaderdesign relative to the opti,d design for the<br />
real uorld may the2 be defked as<br />
Ah(i,n,r,j,k,l) = h(i,n,r,j,k,l) - E{>\ (r,j,k)] (21)<br />
which represents a simple lines loss fìzxtion. Different scales BI and B<br />
may be äo-ied to wsitive zzd neetive losses if necessary. A quadratic goss<br />
function nay be del'iried through scusrirg Ah.<br />
+ReFeat (I), (21, (3) a sufficiently lzrge number <strong>of</strong> times to enable<br />
A (i,n,r, j ,k,l) ] , the expected positive loss, axd E {A-(i,n,r, j ,k,1)3<br />
the absolute vdue <strong>of</strong> the eqected negaative loss, to be defined. The expected<br />
overall loss may tiien be defined as<br />
uhere (i,s,r,j,k,l) is abreviated to (*).
3 89<br />
ordzr to pro9erL;;- assess *&e effects 00 an =&?tion about long term<br />
persistence, desigs &oula be evo1;red nskg Cesign seyiecces for ïdch<br />
E f.2) :.g for all sained uorlc?~. Hocever, even i' the bias correctioï<br />
procedures orscussed eelier ere z3flied to +Le small -?le ectinzt-es <strong>of</strong> pl<br />
arid 8, it uLL1 gellerally rot be ooasible to roet the rosuLrezst E [s2} yy: = 9<br />
<strong>with</strong>in desigz seGuences, if oper&50%s (1) - (3) are fozoveo. However, the<br />
series <strong>of</strong> operztLo.oris outlir?ed .we pr-y designed to illust,rate the effect<br />
<strong>of</strong> as-lying bis correctiors, prticularly i- &e preserre <strong>of</strong> long term persiti<br />
terce, as wen as detercrg the impzct <strong>of</strong> Frsiatence itself on the resets.<br />
KO woblem is encountered k geEerati=g spthetic sequences <strong>of</strong> leogth n<br />
for a fixed value <strong>of</strong> el in<br />
fixed í! a d QI ix the a e<br />
process, the value <strong>of</strong> bS
390<br />
satisfy<br />
However, the estiaate <strong>of</strong> the variance satisfies<br />
E {s2(i,n2))<br />
vary <strong>with</strong> i and must therefore be considered as a random<br />
vci25le iikich satisfies<br />
"2 A<br />
which if 6 (i,<strong>nl</strong>) end f(n2, e(il<strong>nl</strong>) are assumed indepecdent,<br />
= E [$2(i,n,)) E [ f (n2, G(i,<strong>nl</strong>J<br />
However, in genera,<br />
A<br />
E {I(%, ê(i,<strong>nl</strong>)) # f(n2, E[@ (i,n,)I I<br />
as f(n2, @i,n ) is non-l+ezr. Howeveft, if Eff(n2..e (i,<strong>nl</strong>u is evaïEted<br />
at the expected vdue <strong>of</strong> e(i,nq), E {e (ilni) , which, if e (i,<strong>nl</strong>) is an<br />
unbiased estimate, equals E> , equation (2'7) reduces to<br />
E{E [s2(i,n2d] = 6 2 f(n,f')<br />
A<br />
=i E(S~],~ = 9 (28)<br />
which is what is required. However, neither <strong>of</strong> the two assumptions necessary<br />
to arrive at equation (28) are liable to hold ; nevertheless the departure from<br />
the required result may not be very serious. If, however @(i,<strong>nl</strong>) is biases,<br />
a larger discreparcy will occur which should accordingly manifest itself in<br />
the overall regets.<br />
The set <strong>of</strong> oserations (I) - (3) outlined above may be modified to study<br />
the effects <strong>of</strong> aosLying bias correctiocs separztely to estimtes <strong>of</strong> the varizce<br />
and the lag-one autocorrelatio2. For emple, a simplified set <strong>of</strong> experimezts<br />
may be cìefined where the variance for the desis seque-ces, E [s2] 1co is<br />
assumed *-OX?,. in this situation, for each es2imate <strong>of</strong> the lag-one autocorrelation<br />
@(i,<strong>nl</strong>), the estimate <strong>of</strong> the variace, c2(i,nq) used to drive the gererator<br />
is defined as<br />
4<br />
b(i,n,) = E Is2] ,oo/f(n2, p(i,n,)) (29) .<br />
r\<br />
where E {szj is nou a constant but f(n2, @i,<strong>nl</strong>) is a random variable then,<br />
A<br />
2<br />
E ( G2(i,?)] = E [$2(i,<strong>nl</strong>) f(n2,p(i,<strong>nl</strong>)j = E [s Loo= 9<br />
from (29)
Cozsequently, the reqired vcriúzce can be miztahed -2 the desiga sequemes,<br />
while t'le effects <strong>of</strong> bizs correctionzs ??flied io %-ore autocorrelztio~s q v<br />
more esiïy be zssessed; as caa the hpact <strong>of</strong> tde time de-perxielit structure <strong>of</strong><br />
the floäs.<br />
Cozclusions<br />
The problems associated <strong>with</strong> choosizg a gecerati=& ?rocees for generatixg<br />
synthetic streafo-is &-re been outlked, aid some <strong>of</strong> zLe problems miskg a<br />
parmeter estdtion discussed. k the preserce <strong>of</strong> lorg-tem oersistence,<br />
the sadl Foperrties <strong>of</strong> gererati-4 processes trey ~ffer markedy from<br />
corres?ordirg poplation guzrititi-es, a d a set <strong>of</strong> simuï.ztio.ori experime-ts &.ve<br />
bees desir-ed to illustrate the izfluerce <strong>of</strong> 55s correctiox on the ete er<br />
reso'xce system Cesign -roceSS, while also allowing the coase:xexes <strong>of</strong> the<br />
ixorrect moiellirg <strong>of</strong> persisteme to be assessed. €?ro?lerns are enco-tered<br />
in tzaixtaici3g a cozstzrt expecteà varicce ir desigri se-ences between differezt<br />
worlds, uhe- the vzzce is estiozted fyom hisroric sequexes, a=d oriy<br />
approxirate bis correctiozs m2y be ap?lied. Zowever, %te results <strong>of</strong> the sim-<br />
lâtio2 experineats whez 2vWlable &odd illustrate the effects <strong>of</strong> qplyirg<br />
bizs coxectiors to the variace ard lag-one zxocorrelfcion, ead provide a<br />
guide es to what choice <strong>of</strong> gezerati-g mecha5m 29pears to -se the o verd<br />
regrets accsilizg from 2 partich choice <strong>of</strong> ge'reraticg mec-sm. The o otid<br />
choice <strong>of</strong> gererzting mechanism wo-dd be conditiod on a particular design<br />
process.<br />
3 91
392<br />
-1 +I<br />
Q<br />
Figure la<br />
-1 +I<br />
QI<br />
Pipe Ib<br />
+I<br />
+I<br />
-1<br />
d<br />
e2
Reterir-ces<br />
I.<br />
2.<br />
3.<br />
4.<br />
5.<br />
6.<br />
7.<br />
8.<br />
9.<br />
10.<br />
II.<br />
12.<br />
13.<br />
14.<br />
15.<br />
16.<br />
17.<br />
&tBLas, W.C. (1967), Hathenaticel assesmerd <strong>of</strong> sy-thetic hyär~logy,<br />
&ter Resow. Res. f(4), 931-935.<br />
P!delbrot, %B., Udlis, J.R. (19681, No&,<br />
kydrology, Kzter Beso*c. Res. 4(5) , 909-918.<br />
Joseph, a d operatio-di.<br />
Pxst, H.E. (1951), Lozg-term storege capacity <strong>of</strong> reservoiI’S, Th.us. Am.<br />
SOC. Civ. Engrs., 116, 770-8080<br />
393<br />
”st, B.$. (19561, ?!ethods <strong>of</strong> using long term storzge h reservoirs,<br />
Proc. Inst. Civ. Fagrs., 1, 519-543.<br />
.<br />
Yadelbrot, 3.B. (1971 ), A fast fractiod G2ïssim noise generator,<br />
Kater Resoil-. Bes. 7(3), 543-5530<br />
Fmdelbrot, B.B., WiLlis, J.R. (1969 1, Computer experiments <strong>with</strong> fractional<br />
Gmssian noises. Part I - Averages m-d variaces, Viter Resoure Res. 5(l),<br />
228-241.<br />
Yatalas, Nec., Wallis, J.R. (191 1, Statistical properties <strong>of</strong> multivariate<br />
fractional Eoise processes, <strong>Water</strong> Resow. Res. 7(61 , 1460-1468.<br />
Box, G.E.P., Jenkins, 6.13. (‘JPO), Time series analysis : Forecasting and<br />
control, S a Francisco, Holden-Day Inc., pp.553=<br />
O’Connelì, P.E. (1971), A simple stochastic modellirg <strong>of</strong> Burst’s law,<br />
Proc. Interrztionaì Syqmsium on Mzthematjcd Models in Bydrology, Varszw,<br />
voi. I(I), 327-358, ïnt. Ass. Sci. ñydrol.<br />
Kejia, J.M., Rodriguez-Iturbe, I., Dawdy, D.R. (19721, Streamflow simulation.<br />
2 - !Che broke2 lice yocess as a potential mociel for hydrologic simulation,<br />
<strong>Water</strong> Resow. Res. 8(4), 931-941.<br />
Fadelbrot, B.B. (1972), Broken line process derived as ai- approximation<br />
to fractional noise, Yater Resour. Res. 86). 1354-1356.<br />
Kerdall, M.G. (1946), The advanced theory <strong>of</strong> statistics, v.2, London,<br />
Charles GriIfin a d Co. Ltd,, ?p. :24-125.<br />
Fisz, M. (7?63), Probability theory *and mathematical statistics, New York,<br />
John Wiley ard Som I~C., pp. 421-423.<br />
kderson, R.L. (1942), Distribution <strong>of</strong> the serial correlation coefficient,<br />
An. Math. Stat., 13, 1-13.<br />
Vdis, J.R. , Natds, N.C. (1971). Correlopm =absis revisited,<br />
Vzter Resow. Res. 7(6), 1w-1459.<br />
Y!talas, N.C. ‘Langbeir,? Y.B. (19621, Info-tion content <strong>of</strong> the mean,<br />
Join. Ge<strong>of</strong>ir. Res. 6 7(9), S I - H .<br />
Vdis, J.R., Natalas, S.C. (Ig”O>, Sm11 ==?le pro-perties <strong>of</strong> II a d K -<br />
Estimators oi the Ewst coefficient h, Uster Resour. Bes. 6(6), 1931594.
394<br />
18. Vais, Jog., O'CoTlieU., P.E. (1973), Fi-- reserroir yield - hou reli251e<br />
are historic ?;7drolop~c records? 1-ternatiod Sjmoosium on the ñydrolog7<br />
<strong>of</strong> Mes, Helsizki, Firland.<br />
19. Slack, J.R. (:972), Bi=, illusion arid derial as data mcerteicties,<br />
Interatiod Spoosium 01: Uzcert-ties fi Hydrologic er6 Vater Resource<br />
System, Tucsx, ArizoE.<br />
20.<br />
21.<br />
24.<br />
25<br />
26.<br />
a.<br />
28.<br />
Slack, J.R. (373), I uould if I could (Self-denid by conditiorial models),<br />
Vater Resour. 2es. 9(1), 247-249.<br />
Wallis, J.B., Ystdas, N.C. (19721, Secsitivitr <strong>of</strong> reservoir design to<br />
the generat- nechzcìisin <strong>of</strong> inflows, Yater Resou. Res. 8(3), 634-641.<br />
22. Uallis, J.R., O'Connell, P.E. (19721, Small samole estimation <strong>of</strong> Q<br />
Yater Resour. Res. 8(3), 707-712.<br />
23- Hatalas, N.C. (19671, Some aspects <strong>of</strong> time series dgsis in hydrologic<br />
studies, Proc. ñydzology Sym~osiuip ?io. 5 - 'Statistical Kethodc in <strong>Hydrology</strong>' -<br />
held at McGilì Univi. Kontreal, Feb. 1966, National Research Ccmcil <strong>of</strong><br />
Cmda, ppm 41-99.<br />
Brooks, C.E.P., Carruther6, N.C. (1953),<br />
in meteorologi, London, EPSO, pp. 412.<br />
Handbook <strong>of</strong> statistical methoàs<br />
O'Corsell, P.E. (19'731, The use <strong>of</strong> ARIMA models in the stochastic modellkng<br />
<strong>of</strong> long-term persistence, R.D. thesis (in preparation).<br />
Katalzs, N.C., Wallis, J.R. (19721, An approach to formulntina strategies<br />
for flood frequency -sis, Interratiorid Symposium on Uncertainties<br />
in ñydrologic a d <strong>Water</strong> Resource Systems, Tucson, hizona.<br />
Fierizg, M.B. (1967), Streanflow synthesis, London, NcMiUm, pp. 139.<br />
Thomss, H.A., &den, R.P. (19631, Statistical aadysis <strong>of</strong> the reservoir<br />
yield relatioo, report, chap. 1, pp. 1-21, Harvard <strong>Water</strong> Resour. Group,<br />
Cambridge, F!s.
AB ST RACT<br />
STOCHASTIC APPLICATION IN UNGAGED BASINS<br />
FOR PLANNING PURPOSES<br />
By Pedro Porras G. and Alfredo Flores E.<br />
<strong>Water</strong> resources development planning, being iterative and dy-<br />
namic, requires increasingly detailed basic information as each pla-<br />
nning level is surmounted. Successful planning is closely linked to<br />
the quality and quantity <strong>of</strong> the basic data. But when short periods<br />
are involved, the field <strong>of</strong> information is increasingly limited, as<br />
when dealing <strong>with</strong> monthly values instead <strong>of</strong> annual values. Moreover,<br />
methods and techniques are not as readily available, and besides,<br />
they are more laborious, as compared <strong>with</strong> those used in connexion<br />
<strong>with</strong> long periods. On the other hand, the use <strong>of</strong> sophisticated te-<br />
chniques, such as hydrologic simulation, is adequate at the project<br />
level but not at the planning stage, since it involves a more care-<br />
ful preparation <strong>of</strong> incoming data and its attendant remarkable effect<br />
on the cost structure. Besides, it is timeconsuming to the extent <strong>of</strong><br />
likely jeopardizing the requirement <strong>of</strong> keeping planning up-to-date,<br />
The method herein expounded deals <strong>with</strong> the attainment <strong>of</strong> average mon_<br />
thly values, covering a standard period <strong>of</strong> years, for precipitation,<br />
evaporation, net irrigation demands, and run<strong>of</strong>f, in the various<br />
stretches <strong>of</strong> the different rivers in a region, using transition pro-<br />
babilities (stochastic techniques], beginning wrth observed annual<br />
precipitation values, The method has been designed for computer solu-<br />
tion.<br />
El proceso de planificación hidráulica, por su carácter itera-<br />
tive y dinámico, requiere de una información básica cada vez mas de-<br />
tallada a medida que se van superando distintos niveles. El êxito de<br />
la planificación está íntimamente ligado a la calidad y cantidad de<br />
datos básicos; pero la consecución de esta información se hace mas<br />
limitada cuando se imponen consideraciones de períodos cada vez más<br />
cortos, como ocurre cuando se trata de valores mensuales en lugar<br />
de los anuales; a esta limitación habría que añadir la menor dispo<strong>nl</strong><br />
bilidad de mêtodos y técnicas que a su vez son m’as laboriosas que<br />
las usadas en periodos largos. Por otra parte, el empleo de técnicas<br />
s<strong>of</strong>isticadas, como las simulaciones hidrolagicas, son adecuadas a ni<br />
vel de proyecto y no de planificación e implican una preparacian más<br />
meticulosa de los datos de entrada incidiendo notablemente en costos<br />
y consumiendo un tiempo que podria poner en peligro la actualizaci’h<br />
que requiere la planificación. El método que aqui se expone trata de<br />
la consecuciön de valores medios mensuales, pa??a un perPodo tipico<br />
de años, de precipitación, evaporación, demandas netas de riego y es-<br />
currimiento, en los diversos tramos de los di‘stintos ribs ae una re-<br />
gión, haciendo uso de las probabilidades de transl’ción (96cnicas e ~ -<br />
tocásticas) partiendo de los valores anuales observados de precipita<br />
ción. El método ha sido diseñado para resolución por computadora.
396<br />
JUSTIFICATION<br />
For th elaboration f the first version <strong>of</strong> the National Plan <strong>of</strong><br />
Development <strong>of</strong> <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> it was necessary to make a national inventory<br />
<strong>of</strong> the surface run<strong>of</strong>f. The characteristics <strong>of</strong> this first version were sufficient<br />
to know the mean annual volumes which were estimated through run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
isolines given by Hydric Balance method. One <strong>of</strong> the factors which determined<br />
the simplicity <strong>of</strong> application <strong>of</strong> this method was the number <strong>of</strong> years <strong>of</strong> the<br />
chosen period- which allowed to accept the hypothesis that the lateral transmissibility<br />
is negligible.<br />
For the second version <strong>of</strong> the plan it was necessary to make an inventory<br />
<strong>of</strong> the surface run<strong>of</strong>f n mean monthly periods trying to reach a desirable<br />
level <strong>of</strong> detail but it was not possible to make it directly because<br />
<strong>of</strong> insufficient information ex sting. This situation compelled to make an<br />
investigation but unsuccessfully. Then it was necessary to change and follow<br />
other methodologies. From this emerged the idea <strong>of</strong>' making investigations<br />
through the application <strong>of</strong> stochastic methods to attain better results.<br />
CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE MODEL<br />
The proper characteristics <strong>of</strong> a region determine its own pluvial<br />
cycle specified by the quantity and distribution <strong>of</strong> the rainfall. Among these<br />
characteristics must be considered the latitude, longitude, proximity to the<br />
sea or lakes, the topography, land form and so forth. Some <strong>of</strong> them have<br />
greater influence on the quantity and others on the distribution in the year;<br />
determining dry and wet periods. In the annual rainfall distribution may be<br />
appreciated two essential particularities : one, the annual total percentages<br />
corresponding to each month (they represent similar figures for the different<br />
zones though it does not mean that the quantities <strong>of</strong> rainfall must be the same)<br />
the other, the sequence or the order <strong>of</strong> their presentation. The observations<br />
made have proved that in relatively small zones the variations <strong>of</strong> the rainfall<br />
may be important in quantity but not in its distribution.<br />
Generally the characteristics <strong>of</strong> the available data <strong>of</strong>fer the opportunity<br />
that a lot <strong>of</strong> factors allow the elaboration <strong>of</strong> mean annual isohyetal<br />
maps <strong>with</strong> better reliability than the monthly ones (which in some cases can<br />
not even be elaborated). Among these factors it is important to include the<br />
following: the zonal variations better determined from the precipitationelevation<br />
relation (topographic considerations); the complete annual totals<br />
series; the totalizer records;<br />
the comparison <strong>with</strong> mean annual run<strong>of</strong>f in<br />
gaged watershed; the simplicity in the estimation <strong>of</strong> lacking data through<br />
technical procedures like double mass curve, etc.
The most frequent difficulties in the elaboration <strong>of</strong> isohyetal monthly<br />
maps are: (a) the cluster <strong>of</strong> several months in succession since in many cases<br />
even having the annual totals <strong>of</strong> the complete measurement series makes difficult<br />
the assessment <strong>of</strong> monthly averages; (b) it does not exist clear relations<br />
between the altitude <strong>of</strong> the station and the monthly rainfalls; (c) not always<br />
exist definite relations betwe.en the monthly rainfalls measuredat near stations;<br />
(d) the zones <strong>with</strong> scattered stations where the mentioned considerations hamper<br />
drawing the monthly isohyetals. Here is then the need to generate the monthly<br />
data through adequate methods.<br />
ANALYSIS OF DATA<br />
397<br />
For the stochastic generation <strong>of</strong> monthly values <strong>of</strong> rainfall, Region 1<br />
was dected(Maracaibo Lake <strong>Water</strong>shed) where 141 stations <strong>with</strong> 10 years period<br />
recorded were estimated: 1961-70.<br />
In a practical manner, even if the monthly average could not be deter-<br />
mined directly from the records, due to clustering <strong>of</strong> monthly values, it was<br />
possible to determine more or less easily the monthly maximum and minimum that<br />
led to generate series <strong>with</strong> standard deviation and mean similar to registered<br />
series according to the checking made at stations <strong>with</strong> complete recording.<br />
The selected value for the analysis was the percentage <strong>of</strong> each month<br />
in connexion <strong>with</strong> the annual average for those 10 years period. A frequency<br />
analysis was made <strong>of</strong> the group <strong>of</strong> data gathered each month and by mean annual<br />
ranges <strong>of</strong> precipitation.<br />
The ranges <strong>of</strong> precipitation selected were the following: (a) from.<br />
50 mm to 1000 mm; (b) from 1000 mm to 1500 mm; (c) from 1500 mm to 2000 mm<br />
and (d) greater than 2000 mm. Then the following particularities appeared:<br />
(a)<br />
(b)<br />
(c)<br />
(d)<br />
In months <strong>of</strong> light precipitation ‘the interval <strong>of</strong> the percentages<br />
variation <strong>with</strong> respect to the annual average varied <strong>with</strong> the annual<br />
average.<br />
In months <strong>of</strong> heavy precipitation no relation was noticed.<br />
In all cases the Gumbel distribution function was the one which fits<br />
better on polygon frequency.<br />
The interval <strong>of</strong> the percentages variation, each month, is characteristic<br />
<strong>of</strong> each location. For instance: the interval in January in<br />
Paraguaipoa is permanent and is different to Machiques in the same<br />
month.
398<br />
DESCRIPTION OF THE MODEL<br />
It was determined to construct a stochastic model to generate (from<br />
the average values <strong>of</strong> annual rainfall) monthly series <strong>of</strong> 10 values which re-<br />
present a typical cycle <strong>of</strong> 10 years. This matter has the following purposes:<br />
(a)<br />
(b)<br />
(c)<br />
To use the averages <strong>of</strong> those series in the elaboration <strong>of</strong> the mean<br />
monthly isohyetic maps.<br />
To compute (from generated rainfall values) probable values <strong>of</strong><br />
evaporation which accompany each rainfall in order to obtain balances<br />
and determine the water requirements for irrigation.<br />
To determine mean monthly rainfall over the watersheds area in order<br />
to estimate mean monthly run<strong>of</strong>f and obtain average values.<br />
For the generation <strong>of</strong> rainfall values it was necessary to estimate<br />
the possibility to elaborate a matrix <strong>of</strong> transition probability to obtain<br />
monthly rainfall values for consecutive years. This was not possible because<br />
the monthly series (when are completed) o<strong>nl</strong>y consist <strong>of</strong> 10 terms and just like<br />
it was mentioned previously the number <strong>of</strong> them is very reduced - this being<br />
one <strong>of</strong> the reasons why the model was prepared.<br />
The matrix <strong>of</strong> probability <strong>of</strong> transition was elaborated then considerin!<br />
previous states equally likely that is to say, <strong>with</strong>out distinction in all<br />
months. It was found that among the polygons <strong>of</strong> "accumulated relative fre-<br />
quencies" corresponding to the same previous state, but <strong>of</strong> different matrix<br />
pertaining to nearby regions, there exists proportionality. That is, if we<br />
denominate F(x) the function that describes the best fit to the polygon corres.<br />
ponding to a previous state xi <strong>of</strong> a matrix [A and F, (x) that corresponding<br />
to the same previous state xi in the matrix zû] (Fig. 1) and if the functions<br />
take the same value for values x equal to s and t respectively that is to say<br />
if<br />
F (s)=F( ( t ) (1)<br />
and calling m and M the lower and upper limits <strong>of</strong> the interval variation <strong>of</strong><br />
the first function and m, and M,<br />
is verified:<br />
to the second one; an important relation<br />
-<br />
-<br />
s - m M - m<br />
t - m, M,- m l
This last expression gives a simple form to estimate the value <strong>of</strong> the<br />
rariable corresponding to a place when is knownitslimits <strong>of</strong> variation and a<br />
wilt matrix is valid for the region since the real value <strong>of</strong> x will be:<br />
x =<br />
s - m<br />
M - m<br />
(Mi - mi) + ml (2 1<br />
TO generate a cycle <strong>of</strong> 10 years <strong>of</strong> rainfall values, any value (XO) is<br />
:hosen among the interval <strong>of</strong> variation <strong>of</strong> the percentages observed for the<br />
nonth <strong>of</strong> December so as to begin the process. Boundaries for each month are<br />
the maximum and minimum limits where the percentages <strong>of</strong> each month change and<br />
the value <strong>of</strong> mean year rainfall in that place is determined. A random number<br />
is selected from O to 100; <strong>with</strong> this random number and <strong>with</strong> the initial value<br />
(xo) we come into the matrix <strong>of</strong> the transition probabilites and we read the<br />
dalue <strong>of</strong> x which is changed through the expression 2.<br />
This value <strong>of</strong> x obtained this way and multiplied by the<br />
,f precipitation and divided by 100, generate the first monthly<br />
dumerically is as follows:<br />
I<br />
xu P<br />
LL\ = J-<br />
-<br />
dhere P: mean year rainfall<br />
100<br />
x;: percentage corresponding to ( 'month) state<br />
i l<br />
With the value x: obtained and a new random number, the proced.ure is<br />
repeated so as to generate x2 and continually untili = 120 (10 years). The<br />
first 12 values correspond to each month <strong>of</strong> the first year generated; the next<br />
L2 correspond to the months <strong>of</strong> the second year and continually until the tenth<br />
rear.<br />
lbtainment <strong>of</strong> the Monthly Rainfall Over Area in a <strong>Water</strong>shed<br />
399<br />
mean year value<br />
rainfall value.<br />
In a watershed, as soon as the isohyets have been drawn <strong>with</strong> the mean<br />
mnual values <strong>of</strong> the available stations, the mean annual rainfall over area<br />
)btained <strong>with</strong> the average <strong>of</strong> all the point values inferred will be very close<br />
to the vaiue <strong>of</strong> the mean annual rainfall which has been obtained through the<br />
danimeter. Based on this it is possible to get the mean annual rainfall on a<br />
datershed, using the known mean annual totals or the generated mean annual<br />
lalues. Nevertheless, applying this procedure to the monthly value generated,<br />
leads to poor results, average excepted, since in two adjacent points it is<br />
impassible to guarantee beginning both series <strong>with</strong> the representative values<br />
if the same year.<br />
1 typical cycle <strong>of</strong> 10 years, not o<strong>nl</strong>y regarding the magnitude <strong>of</strong> the terms but<br />
regarding the order too.<br />
(3)<br />
In spite <strong>of</strong> this the values <strong>of</strong> the series obtained represent
400<br />
In order to attain the series <strong>of</strong> the monthly values corresponding to<br />
the rainfall over the area already mentioned, the same procedure has to be re-<br />
peated (as it has been explained) for getting the monthly values at a point,<br />
starting from an initial value which is the average value <strong>of</strong> the initio1<br />
volumes at each point extended uniformly from the mean annual rainfall obtained<br />
according to the precedent explanation and the monthly maximum and minimum<br />
limits also obtained just like averages at each point.<br />
Generation <strong>of</strong> Monthly Values <strong>of</strong> Evaporation<br />
The precipitation <strong>of</strong> the zone was divided in 10 mm intervals and in eoc<br />
one <strong>of</strong> them where the stations existed, the evaporation was studied and the<br />
polygon <strong>of</strong> frequence which correspond to each rainfall interval was determine<br />
The distribution <strong>of</strong> frequency <strong>of</strong> the evaporation was anolyhed in interv<br />
class <strong>of</strong> 10 mm. Without making a strict analysis it was observed that the distribution<br />
<strong>of</strong> evaporation for each rainfall interval is normal. The range <strong>of</strong><br />
the variation <strong>of</strong> the evaporation decrease while the mean value <strong>of</strong> the class <strong>of</strong><br />
rainfall increase. Thus, to generate anevaporation value, as soon as the rainfall<br />
value has been generated, a random number is chosen as well as the interva<br />
to which the rainfall generated pertains; the random number determines the<br />
corresponding evaporation value.<br />
With the pair <strong>of</strong> series obtained at each point, the accounting balance<br />
is made in order to determine the water requirements for irrigation.<br />
RESULTS<br />
With the aim <strong>of</strong> getting some indicator <strong>of</strong> the goodness <strong>of</strong> the results,<br />
the monthly rainfall values pertaining to places <strong>with</strong> measurements were generat<br />
and the series were compared through means and standard deviations.<br />
The linear correlation was calculated for each place among the twelve<br />
means generated (one for each month) and the measurements; the same also was<br />
made <strong>with</strong> the standard deviations.<br />
For illustration here are some results:<br />
!- Coefficient <strong>of</strong> cor;ela:ion between<br />
The Means Standard Deviations<br />
I<br />
O ,98<br />
o ,?2<br />
San José Bolivar<br />
Boroto<br />
Mochiques Gia.<br />
0,90<br />
O ,96<br />
O ,?3<br />
0,91<br />
0,81<br />
O ,96<br />
0,94<br />
0,89
JNOFF<br />
401<br />
The run<strong>of</strong>f is generated by the following equations explained in the<br />
irk "Analisis sobre las Relaciones Escurrimiento-Precipitation en Periodos<br />
! n s u a 1 e s 'I (An a 1 y s i s o f Run o f f -Pr e c i pit at i on Re 1 at i on s by Mont hl y Per i od s )<br />
Pedro Porras G.<br />
ere :<br />
Ei = Si-' -<br />
Y<br />
o<br />
a<br />
4- (Pi-si- 1 -)B.<br />
I-a I-a I<br />
si = s. - 1<br />
a<br />
i (Pi - - s. 1 -) (i-+)<br />
I I 1-a<br />
: Number <strong>of</strong> the period <strong>of</strong> time (month)<br />
: Run<strong>of</strong>f in the period<br />
: Storage to the period<br />
i<br />
,f Coefficients depending on the characteristic <strong>of</strong> the watershed.<br />
This method has been developed in order to be applied by means <strong>of</strong> the<br />
e <strong>of</strong> digital computers and to obtain ranges <strong>of</strong> mean monthly values which do<br />
t differ more than 10 per cent in general terms.<br />
For the application <strong>of</strong> this method it is convenient to use maps at<br />
100.000 scales <strong>with</strong> topography; on these maps previously squared (an adequate<br />
dth among the lines must be no more than 2 minutes) we draw the mean annual<br />
ohyets for a period <strong>of</strong> 10 years and we build the twelve pairs <strong>of</strong> maps<br />
rresponding to the isopercents<strong>of</strong>maximum and minimum for each month.<br />
In the region all watersheds have to be shown uptothe places <strong>of</strong> interest;<br />
e data must be prepared for each watershed.<br />
At the intersection point <strong>of</strong> the grid previously identified, we must<br />
ad the mean annual precipitation value as well as the maximum and minimum<br />
lues corresponding. This information plus the area <strong>of</strong> the watershed, initial<br />
lues <strong>of</strong> precipitation in percentage, the regional matrix <strong>of</strong> precipitation<br />
d evaporation and the values <strong>of</strong> alp, S establish the input data to the pro-<br />
O<br />
ss.<br />
(4)<br />
(5)
402<br />
The values <strong>of</strong> a,/, S must be obtained from nearby watersheds <strong>with</strong><br />
O<br />
measurements and similar characteristics. In the procedure to be applied to<br />
get this result and in the selection <strong>of</strong> these values, we must estimate the<br />
very important physiographic characteristics <strong>of</strong> the watershed.<br />
RESOLUTION BY COMPUTER<br />
The application <strong>of</strong> the model requires a lot <strong>of</strong> computing which is<br />
very time consuming by hand; therefore it was necessary to elaborate a progrc<br />
for digital computer.<br />
The program has been elaborated in the PL/1 Language and it consists<br />
<strong>of</strong> a main program and five subprograms whose functions are the following:<br />
MA1N PROGRAM<br />
This program consists <strong>of</strong> six main phases:<br />
It reads the data <strong>of</strong> the transition matrix <strong>of</strong> the precipitation and<br />
the evaporation, as well as the characteristic data <strong>of</strong> the points<br />
<strong>of</strong> the grid in which the watershed has been subdivided (mean annual<br />
precipitation, initial monthly precipitation, monthly maximum limit<br />
and monthly minimum limit).<br />
It generates stochastically for each point <strong>of</strong> the grid the precipita.<br />
tion month to month for the selected period through the transition<br />
matrix <strong>of</strong> the precipitation.<br />
From the monthly precipitation <strong>of</strong> the point and through the transitic<br />
matrix <strong>of</strong> the evaporation, it calculates the monthly evaporations at<br />
the point.<br />
If the water requirements for irrigation are required at the point,<br />
the program through a control apply the method "Accounting Balance<br />
<strong>of</strong> Thornthwaite" using the precipitations and evaporation calculated<br />
in the phases 2 and 3.<br />
It generates stochastically the monthly precipitation for the water-<br />
shed from the transition matrix <strong>of</strong> the precipitation and taking as<br />
mean annual value and initial value, the average <strong>of</strong> them already<br />
calculated for the points <strong>of</strong> the grid <strong>of</strong> the watershed.<br />
It calculates the run<strong>of</strong>f and monthly volumes for the watershed<br />
according to the work "Analysis <strong>of</strong> Run<strong>of</strong>f-Precipitation Relations<br />
by Monthly Periods" by Pedro Porras, Engineer.
SUBPROGRAMS<br />
Subprogram LENGTH:<br />
It calculates the length <strong>of</strong> the interval <strong>of</strong> the probability curves<br />
accumulated by the transition matrix <strong>of</strong> the precipitation.<br />
Subprogram INTER:<br />
It interpoles values in the transition matrix<br />
Subprogram ESTADI:<br />
It computes the mean and the standard deviation<br />
Subprogram DENERI:<br />
403<br />
It determines the water requirements for irrigation starting from the<br />
method <strong>of</strong> "Accounting Balance <strong>of</strong> Thornthwaite".<br />
Subprogram RANDU:<br />
It generates random numbers between O and 1 used in the stochastic<br />
process.<br />
In the Fig. No. 2 attached is presented the Flow Chart <strong>of</strong> the program.<br />
VERIFICATION OF THE MODEL<br />
For the verification <strong>of</strong> the model the Socuy River watershed was<br />
selected. The basin is located in the north-west region <strong>of</strong> the Maracaibo<br />
Lake in Venzuela.
404<br />
Fin) Former state: xi<br />
MATRIX [AI<br />
Fiix) Former state:Xi<br />
MATRIX [d<br />
F,(t)rF(i) ---------<br />
Comparison <strong>of</strong> distribution functions for equal prior<br />
states <strong>of</strong> the various matrices<br />
PIOURE A
0<br />
COMIENZO<br />
MATRICES DE<br />
PRECIPITACION Y<br />
EVAPORA CI ON<br />
NUMERO DE<br />
CUENCAS<br />
LECTURA DE<br />
DATOS DE LA<br />
CUENCA<br />
PUNTO<br />
LECTURA OE<br />
DATOS DE LO5<br />
PUNTOS DE LA<br />
CUENCA<br />
I A<br />
::::;-I<br />
PR EC I P ITACI ON<br />
EVAPORACION<br />
I<br />
FIGURA 2<br />
- 9<br />
FIN PUNTO<br />
DEMANDAS<br />
FIN<br />
1 CALCULA P R F<br />
PITACION MEDIA<br />
ANUALY MENSUAL<br />
PARA LACUENCA<br />
IMPRIME<br />
PRECIPI TACION<br />
LECTURA DE<br />
CALCULA<br />
VOLUMENEC<br />
MENSUALES<br />
0<br />
FINAL<br />
~~<br />
DIAGRAMA DE FLUJO
406<br />
6<br />
1<br />
8<br />
IC<br />
5<br />
11.11<br />
41.63<br />
154.31<br />
114.65<br />
it.31<br />
41-61<br />
?.II<br />
145.IC<br />
Il.5C<br />
C.15<br />
itit<<br />
13iGi<br />
I(C.51<br />
2t5.lt<br />
5f.13<br />
45.15<br />
13s.11<br />
?li.lf<br />
13.f<<br />
?(.i1<br />
?.'!<br />
42.21<br />
!liil<br />
5f .*i<br />
31.11<br />
41.25<br />
ii.12<br />
I.i< 1-61<br />
15.15<br />
12.15<br />
1e2.27<br />
il.0<br />
145.41<br />
SC.?<<br />
*;.i?<br />
Il5.1f<br />
(1.11<br />
1.51<br />
111.51<br />
lt.53<br />
ili.13<br />
5ct.14<br />
li?.?;<br />
I
ABSTRACT<br />
HOMOGENEISATION ET INTERPOLATION DES DONNES POUR<br />
UN MODELE DE SIMULATION<br />
par Marcel ROCHE<br />
When the topological schema <strong>of</strong> a project has been defined, it<br />
is necessary to establish data sets (in quantity and possibly in<br />
quality) wich are to be used for operating the simulation. This is<br />
all the more difficult as basic data are more seldom and <strong>of</strong> less good<br />
quality. It must 5e begun to gathei as completely as possible data<br />
directly observed at available stations and to severely criticize<br />
those data. The second operation consists ia choosing the period <strong>of</strong><br />
reference to be used Cas long as possible) and in establishing an<br />
homogeneous series, for this period, from the basic data Ccorrelations).<br />
Finally, from this homogeneous series at available statïons, an<br />
homogeneous series at the various input points <strong>of</strong> the model has to<br />
be computed (interpolation in space). The author taRes as an exemple<br />
monthly yields and their mean salinity.<br />
RESUME<br />
Lorsque le schema topologique d‘un aménqgement a étd arrêté,<br />
il convient d‘établir los séquences hj-drologTqnes Cqyantit& et<br />
éventuellement qualité] oui devront être utilisées pour proceder a<br />
la simulatlon. L‘opératinn est d’autant plus df3licate que les donnees<br />
de base sont plus payes et de moïns bonne qualite. On doi’t commencer<br />
par faire un bilan aussi complet quo possible des données directement<br />
observses aux stations disponibles et scumettrc ces donnges à une<br />
analyse critique ~6v’ere. La seconde opérntion consiste 3. choisir las<br />
période de référoncn qu‘on utilisera Cia plus 1Qngue possible), et a<br />
établir pour cette ?-riode une série homogène a partir des données de<br />
base (corréiatioris). Enfin, on doit calculer, à partir de cette série<br />
homogène aux stati~ris disponibles, une s&rie homogene aux différents<br />
points d’entrée di1 nodèlo (interpolation spatiale). L’auteur prend<br />
comme exemple les apports mensuels et leur salinité moyenne.
408<br />
Un modèle mathématique de simulation pour un aménagement intégré est<br />
construit 5 partir d'un plan topologique tel que celui de la figvre 1. Sur ce<br />
plan, les débits à injecter pour faire fonctionner le modèle sont représentés<br />
par les symboles An et ACn, suivant qu'ils sont produits en tête de bassin ou<br />
dans un bassin intermédiaire. On peut, s'il est besoin, leur associer les salures<br />
moyennes correspondantes SAn et SACn.<br />
I1 est donc nécessaire de fournir les valeurs de ces apports et éventuellement<br />
de ces salures sur la plus longue période possible. Les débits sont<br />
mesurés à des stations de jaugeage qui ne coïncident pas toujours et avec toutes<br />
les limites des unités hydrauliques. Par ailleurs, les périodes sur lesquelles<br />
portent le6 observations ne sont jamais les mêmes aux différentes<br />
stations. I1 en est de même pour les observations concernant la qualité des<br />
eaux, avec encore moins de stations, davantage de lacunes et des périodes<br />
plus courtes.<br />
Les opérations destinées à préparer l'échantillon des An et des ACn, et<br />
éventuellement celui des SAn et des SACn seront donc les suivantes (on supposera<br />
dans tout ce qui suit qu'on travaille à un pas de temps mensuel) :<br />
- mise au point des débits moyens mensuels observés aux stations,<br />
- mise au point des salures moyennes mensuelles observées aux stations,<br />
- choix d'une période de travail, dite historique, et homogénéisation<br />
des débits moyens mensuels sur cette période,<br />
- homogénéisation, sur la période historique, des données concernant<br />
la qualité,<br />
- calcul, sur la période historique, des An, ACn, SAn et SACn, par<br />
interpolation géographique, et quelquefois par analogie ; équilibrage<br />
des volumes et des poids de sei.<br />
1.- Débits et salures observds aux stations<br />
Les données provenant des réseaux sont traitdes par les services<br />
qui les contr&lent, de plus en plus par les procddds de l'informatique.<br />
Quand on commence une étude hydrologique pour un amdnagement,<br />
on doit, dans toute la mesure du possible, repartir des<br />
données originales non dlabordes,<br />
les critiquer et les traiter à no:<br />
veau, Pour les hauteurs limnimêtriques, on reprend tous les originaux<br />
des observateurs (lecteurs d'échelles) et les limnigrammes s'ils<br />
existent, On vérifie les calages des échelles en s'appuyant sur les<br />
comptes rendus, les contrôles de zéro, sur tout document disponible,<br />
on se livre au besoin 3 des enquetes sur le terrain; on essaye d'@va<br />
luer la qualitd des relev'es d'apr&s la forme des limnigrammes, la<br />
tenue des feuilles d'observations, en faisant des comparahons avec<br />
d'autres stations etc,<br />
Si on dispose des minutes des jaugeages, il n'est pas sans<br />
intérbt de controler quelques dépouillements; si on releve un purcep<br />
tage important d'erreurs il ne faut pas hésiter 3 les reprendre en<br />
totalité, I1 ne s'agit pas toujours 12 d'un polissage raffiné; nous<br />
pourrions citer un cas dans lequel un contrôle a montrd que 25% des<br />
jaugeages présentaient des erreurs de dépouillement supgrieures 3<br />
20%. I1 faut ensuite refaire la courbe d'étalonnage, ou les courbes<br />
si l'étalonnage a varié au cours de la période d'observation, ce qui<br />
est presque toujours le cas pour les basses eaux,<br />
On reprend alors le calcul des ddbits à l'ordinateur et on<br />
en sort la série chronologique des débits moyens mensuels observés<br />
chacune des stations dans le ou les bassins intéressant le projet,
Si l'on doit tenir compte de la qualité des eaux, notamment de la<br />
salinité, il faut faire sur les observations correspondantes une<br />
opération analogue 8 ,la précédente, mais avec une méthodologie de<br />
contrôle tr&s différente,<br />
409<br />
Les mesures de salinités, par exemple, portent généralement SUT des périodes<br />
beaucoup 21us courtes que celles des observations hydrométriques. Rles sont<br />
souvent disparates dans leurs méthodes dféchantillonnage (techniques de prélèvement)<br />
aussi bien que dans les méthodes d'analyses. Pour ces dernières, on procède<br />
soit par analyse chimique complète, en différenciant les sels dissous, soit par<br />
analyse sommaire : teneur globale en sels dissous mesurée le plus souvent par conductivimétrie,<br />
I1 faut homogénéiser tous ces résultats, après une étude critique<br />
aussi poussée que possible portant notamment sur la confiance qu'on peut attri-<br />
buer aux méthodes clsanalyse pratiquées<br />
et aux conditions dans lesquelles elles<br />
ont été appliquées .e lorsqu'on les connaît. On produit ainsi, pour les .besoins<br />
du modèle, un échantillon de salures moyennes mensuelles à un certain nombre de<br />
stations (l).,<br />
Si on a l'intention d'utiliser la pluviométrie disponible pour étendre la<br />
période d'observation des débits, il faudra procéder également à l'indispensable<br />
étude critique des précipitations. On s'attachera notamment à détecter et à cor-<br />
riger les erreurs systématiques, causes d'hétérogénéité dans les séries, en appli-<br />
quant la méthode des doubles cumuls (2). La encore, il ne s'agit nullement d'un<br />
débat académique ; les erreurs systématiques dans ce genre de relevés ne sont pas<br />
occasionnelles, elles constituent la règle générale. Pour éviter les erreurs de<br />
transcription qui risquent d'affecter les publications <strong>of</strong>ficielles, on recomman-<br />
de 15 aussi, dans toute la mesure du possible, de partir des relevés originaux.<br />
2.- Homogénéisation et extension des données I1débitsff<br />
Les opérations précédentes ont permis de constituer un échantillon de de-<br />
bits mensuels portant pour chaque station SUI' une période inférieure ou égale a<br />
n années. L'homogénéisation va consister à choisir une période de référence au<br />
plus égale à n années et, p y l'utilisation des regressions, à étendre les rele-<br />
vés de toutes les stations a ces n années, Les corrélations sont estimées mois<br />
par mois pour chaque couple de stations, afin d'éviter l'influence de l'effet<br />
saisonnier.<br />
I1 est très important, lors de ces estimations, de ne pas fausser les va-<br />
riances des échantillons calculés en utilisant sans autre précaution les vérita-<br />
bles équations de régression. Considérons pax exemple les stations i et j pour<br />
lesquelles on dispose, au mois m, d'une série d'observations communes portant sur<br />
p années, soit, pow: une année k donnée, q.m (k) et qj,m (k). On sait que pour<br />
utiliser aisément les corrélations, il faut que la régression de qj,* en qi,,,,<br />
par exemple, soit linéaire et, dans toute la mesure du possible, homoscédastique,<br />
-C-------C----------___I___L_LC_________-<br />
(7) On lira avec pr<strong>of</strong>it, à propos du traitement des mesures de salme, m article<br />
de J. CLAUDE, intitulé "une chaîne de programmes pour le traitement des données<br />
sur la salinitéf1, et publié dans les CAHIERS ORSTOM, série HYDROLOGIE, Vol.<br />
IX, no 2, 1972 -<br />
(2) Voir l'article de Y. BRUNET-MOm intitulé ffEtude de l'homogénéité des séries<br />
chronologiques de précipitations annuelles par la méthode des doubles masses",<br />
et publié dans les CAHIERS ORSTOM, série KYDROLOGIE, Vol. VïII, no 4, 1971 -
410<br />
I1 importe donc au départ de faire en sorte que, par anamorphose ou changement<br />
de variable, ces conditions soient réalisées ; soit x la transformée correspondant<br />
à ,(k)<br />
is<br />
et yk la transformée de q (k). On sait que la régression de y<br />
9 .i9m -.<br />
en x s'exprime par la relation :<br />
YX = Yp + r<br />
avec les notations habituelles.<br />
P Y<br />
p 7<br />
(x-Z)<br />
P<br />
Mais yx ainsi calculée correspond à la moyenne conditionnelle des valeurs<br />
possibles de y pour x donné et non pas à une valeur isolée. Une telle valeur se-<br />
rait donnée par la relation y = yx + € dans laquelle & est une variable aléatoire<br />
qui est souvent considérée comme étant normale de moyenne nulle ; elle est indé-<br />
pendante de x si la condition d'homoscédasticité est réalisée. Négliger E dans le<br />
calcul des débits non observés de la station conduit & diminuer artificiellement<br />
la variance de l'échantillon qu'on aura constitué, d'autant plus que le coeffi-<br />
cient de corrélation est plus faible.<br />
Pour atre correct, si on veut utiliser l'équation de régression à ces fins,<br />
il faudrait d'abord déterminer la distribution de E, puis, au moment de la reconstitution,<br />
calculer yx et lui ajouter une valeur € tirée au hasard dans la loi de<br />
distribution ainsi établie. Cela pose en fait un certain nombre de problèmes pratiques<br />
(apparition de débits négatifs) provenant du fait que les hypothèses de<br />
base ne sont pas vraiment respectées et que l'estimation de l'écart-type de E est<br />
peu précise par suite de la petite taille de l'échantillon qui sert à l'établir.,<br />
POW toutes ces raisons, il est finalement préférable de procéder d'une manière<br />
beaucoup plus simple, certes peu conforme à l'esthétique mathématique, mais qui<br />
respecte assez bien la variance initiale : prendre une droite passant par l'origine<br />
: y = Ax,<br />
I1 est parfois possible d'améliorer la corrélation en tenant compte de la<br />
pluviométrie locale par l'application d'une régression multiple ('IIo Supposons,<br />
pour fixer les idEtes, que la variable dépendante (celle qu'on veut estimer) soit<br />
(k). Le bassin de surface S. qui fournit ce débit peut<br />
'j,m J<br />
-&re inclus dans le bassin de surface Si qui fournit %,m(k), on a<br />
alors S. (si,<br />
J<br />
-Inclure si, on a aïors S. ) si,<br />
J<br />
-n'avoir pas de point commun avec S..<br />
Dans' le premier cas, les pluies tombant sur S. alimentent totalement S. et<br />
3 1<br />
on a peu de chance d'améliorer la régression en les prenant en compte. Par contre,<br />
il n'est pas impossible que la pluie tombant sur le bassin intermédiaire S exi-j<br />
plique une partie non négligeable de la variance de q (k). Dans le second cas,<br />
j,m<br />
les pluies sur Si expliquent au moins partiellement q.m(k) et ne peuvent expli-<br />
quer qj,m(k) que par l'intermédiaire de q<br />
i,m<br />
(k) : il est donc à priori inutile de<br />
--------------------_______c____________--<br />
(1) Pour le détail de l'application des régressions multiples à 1-'hydrologie, on<br />
peut se reporter par exemple à l'article de P. TOUCKEBEiJF DE LUSSIQ'E "Régressions<br />
et corrélations multiples en hydrologie", publié dans les CAHIERS ORSTOM, série<br />
HYDROLOGIE, Vol. VïII, ne 4, 1971 -
411<br />
les introduire. Par contre, qj est la somme de qi et de qj-i, variable expliquée<br />
au moins partiellement par les pluies qui tombent sur le bassin intermédiaire j-i,<br />
l'introduction de ces pluies dans la régression peut donc améliorer l'estimation.<br />
Dans le dernier cas il est évident que, si on dispose de pluies sur S il peut<br />
&tre utile de les introduire.<br />
j'<br />
I1 ne sera donc intéressant d'utiliser des régressions multiples portant<br />
sur les pluies que si les données s'appliquent à un bassin contrblé par i ou par<br />
j, mais pas par les deux à la fois. Il faut toutefois noter que, les bassins et<br />
sous-bassins étant voisins, les pluies, surtout à l'échelle du mois, ont des<br />
chances d'être assez fortement liées et on risque de vouloir faire expliquer à la<br />
variable pluviométrique choisie une partie de la variance déjà expliquée par sio<br />
Dans le temps, l'influence de la pluie tombée le mois m sera ßans doute<br />
prépondérante, mais les pluies des mois antérieurs peuvent avoir une influence<br />
non négligeable. On introduira donc, suivant les circonstances, soit les pluies<br />
du mois (pluie mensuelle à un pluviomètre ou moyenne des pluies mensuelles à plusieurs<br />
pluviomètres), soit un indice pluviométrique défini come une somme<br />
Pm + a P + a2 Pm-2 + ooo décroît quand i augmente, par exem-<br />
1<br />
OU a<br />
m-1<br />
+ a. P<br />
i m-i i<br />
ple en progression géométrique de raison i/2. Eh fait la plupart du temps on se<br />
limitera à la pluie du mois.<br />
Les relations ainsi établies, employées avec les précautions indiquées en<br />
ce qui concerne le respect de la variance, servent à établir une chronique de dé-<br />
bits mensuels sur une période de n années pour toutes les stations* On peut alors<br />
chercher à augmenter la durée de cette période avec le seul secours des données<br />
pluviométriques. Cette opération est préparée lors d.e 11 étude précédente d'homogé-<br />
néisation, mais l'absence de variables explicatives fld6bitsfl peut modifier assez<br />
considérablement l'influence relative des autres variables explicativeso<br />
On peut commencer à rechercher, pour chaque bassin, la relation entre le<br />
débit moyen annuel Qi (k) et la pluie moyenne annuelle Pi (k) estimée par la mé-<br />
thode de miessen si on a plusieurs pluviomètres. La relation Q (P) comporte un<br />
seuil physiquement explicable qui correspond en gros à la précipitation minimale<br />
annuelle nécessaire à l'apparition de llécoulement ; on la désignera par Poo A<br />
ce seuil se superpose une constante qui traduit la diminution de variance due à<br />
l'application de la régression. Comme P n'est pas connu à priori, on nia plus la<br />
O<br />
ressource de faire passer la droite de régression Q (P-PO) par l'origine (on suppose<br />
en effet que la régression est linéaire ;si elle ne l'est pas, il convient<br />
de faire les transformations convenables) o On peut appliquer l'équation de régression<br />
vraie Q = A (P-Po), rechercher la loi de distribution des résidus, et Procéder<br />
au calcul de l'échantillon étendu comme on l'a indiqué pour l'homogénéisation,<br />
avec les mgmes avantages et les mêmes inconvénients. ûn préfère souvent<br />
utiliser un expédient dénué, il faut le dire, de base statistique solide, Au lieu<br />
d'appliquer les moindres carrés aux résidus Q<br />
on les applique<br />
calculé - Qobservé'<br />
aux distances des points représentatifs des couples (&k,<br />
à la droite w(p-pO)<br />
qui ne sera plus alors une vraie droite de régression. On dit qu'on utilise une<br />
''pseudo-r égressio<strong>nl</strong>' .<br />
brsqulon a ainsi mis au point un échantillon étendu de débits moyens annuels,<br />
on reprend la m&me opération à Iféchelle mensuelle, en tenant compte au<br />
besoin de l'influence des pluies des mois antérieurs, ainsi qu'on l'a indiqué
41 2<br />
pour l'opération d'homogénéisation. Ces nouvelles régressions sont surtout des-<br />
tinées à fournir la forme de la répartition des débits dans l'année, car les dé-<br />
bits annuels déduits des débits mensuels ainsi reconstitub sont souvent moins<br />
valables que ceux qui sont obtenus par une regression à l'échelle de l'année ;<br />
il convient cependant de s'en assurer.,<br />
I1 reste à vérifier que les données mensuelles retenues pour les diffé-<br />
rentes stations sont compatibles entre elles, c'est-à-dire qu'en général un débit<br />
d'une station aval doit &tre supérieur ou au moins égal à celui de toute station<br />
amont, que si une station aval AV est placée SUT un cours principal alimenté par<br />
deux bras dont les débits sont contr81és par deux stations AM1 et AM2, les débits<br />
de AV doivent &tre au moins égaux aux sommes des débits de AM1 et AM2. Autrement<br />
dit, on ne doit pas admettre de débit négatif dans un bassin versant intermg-<br />
diaire, sauf éventuellement dans deux cas :<br />
- il y a des pertes physiquement reconnues, soit par infiltration,<br />
soit par évaporation (marais o.oetcooo),<br />
- il y a des stockages naturels importants (lacs .etc.).<br />
Ces cas particuliers mis .$ part, si on constate des débits négatifs ou ri-<br />
diculement faibles, et cela arrive malheureusement assez souvent, c'est que, mal-<br />
gré l'étude critique et la mise en ordre initiale des données, il y a des erreurs<br />
dans l'étalonnage et/ou des erreurs systématiques dans les relevés d'échelle et/<br />
ou une mauvaise répartition de ces relevés dans le temps (observations trop es-<br />
pacées compte tenu du régime), I1 faut revenir sur 1'8tude critique et essayer<br />
de déterminer quelles sont les stations auxquelles on peut faire le plus confian-<br />
ce ; il est nécessaire d'aboutir à un choix, meme si ,celui-ci est un peu arbi-<br />
traire. On considérera comme bons les débits des stations sélectionnées, qui<br />
doivent bien entendu &re compatibles entre elles, et on retouchera les débits<br />
incriminés des autres stations jusqu'à remplir les conditions de compatibilité.<br />
3. - Homogénéisat ion et extension des données Ilsalinit ésf1<br />
Les observations directes sur la salve des eaux sont presque toujours<br />
plus rares, dans le temps et dans l'espace, que pour les débits. On sera donc<br />
appelé à combler plus de lacunes que pour les débits et à procéder à une exten-<br />
sion plus importante des périodes.,<br />
Si les rivieres sont restées en l'état naturel, ou tout au moins au rn&me<br />
degré de rejets susceptibles de modifier la salure, les données recueillies récemment<br />
sont susceptibles d'&tre transposées dans le passé. Sinon la transposition<br />
n'est pas Ithistoriquement1l possible, mais c'est d'importance secondaire. Eh effet,<br />
on ne doit pas, pour la simulation, employer des échantillons lJévolutifslt, car<br />
les résultats qu'on en tirerait n'auraient pas de sens, Au contraire, si, par des<br />
tests quelconques, on s'apercevait que les conditions gbéralss de salure ont<br />
changé, on ne devrait conserver que les résultats les plus récents, meme si la<br />
taille de l'échantillon devait passablement s'en ressentir.<br />
h situation se présente de la façon suivante. Pour tout mois de la période<br />
irhomogènelt et éventuellement llétendue't de l'échantillon historique, on<br />
peut disposer :<br />
- d'une série continue de relevés de salure qui, passée dans une chaPne<br />
de traitements de salinité permet d'établir une série complète<br />
de valeurs des saliires journalières et mensuelles,
413<br />
- d'une sbrie incomplète mais pamqttant le caLcul d'un certain nombre<br />
de salures moyennes jourzi.alj.èrm9<br />
- de relevés sporadiques,<br />
- d'au.cm relevé,<br />
Soit une station pour laquelle on s., &mart toute la pér:ode homogène, la<br />
distribution d'observations journalières mivantes (ûuivant les mois de l'arde<br />
d'exploitation numérot8s Î à -121,<br />
pur les salinités moyennes journdi&rcs :<br />
nsjl nsj2 nsjj nsjg nsj5 nsj6 nsj7 nsj8 nnjq nsjI0 nsj II ns%2 y<br />
poi1.r les débits m,oyer,s journ.diers :<br />
pour les dé5its moyen..^ mensuels :<br />
Chaque terme nqmi est égal au nombre d.fann6es que comporte la serie homo-<br />
gène, mais u2 terme nqji p.fast pas forcément égd à nqmi .multiplié par le nombre<br />
de jours du mois i, puisqu'icn certain nonbre do débits moyens mensuels Ont pu<br />
8tre reccnstitués lars de l'opération dfhomogénéisation, sans qu'on possède au-<br />
cun relevé joiirmlier ,?our les mois corres2ondants. On cherchera dans une pre-<br />
mière étape à reconstiti;er, pour chaque qji à.isponible, le sji correspondant qui<br />
n.'auiait pas &té observ8. Dans une seconde Qtape, on fera la meme opération Szn"<br />
les qmi et les mio<br />
Pour un r6gtne hydr2roiogiqu.e donné, la concentration en sel dissous depend<br />
EU premier chef de la nEtu.re minéralogique du bassin concerné, de l'importance<br />
des nappes soutermines et de 13 vitesse GU transit de Ifeau dans ces nappes, Vi-<br />
.cesse qui intervient sux la durée du contact de cette eau avec la roche- On Peut<br />
aSouter comme paramètre l'agressivité des pr6cipitations mesurbe par leur teneur<br />
en CO2 libre et 1ev.ï degr6 de pureté. Le ph&niimène est donc complexe et il ne<br />
faut pas s'attendre 5 p'iwoir le représenter par des relations simples.<br />
I1 est toutefois logique ds penser que les eaux souterraines sont normale-<br />
men;: plus chargées f3n. sols dissous que les eaux de surface, par suite de leur<br />
contact prolone;& 2.vei les roches. I1 faut donc s'attendre 5 ce que les basses<br />
eaux soient plus chrnqkà cge les débits importants at il est logique qu'il exis-<br />
te m e relation, certes m n tcjnctiomei?-e, entre ia salurs et ïe débit, L'expé-<br />
riencs montre qu'il en est bien ainsi ; elle met. de pl.us en evidence une in-<br />
f?u.eiic? saisomiere sur cntte rels.tion.<br />
?oc? 1'6tabiir OB -pxèd.e mois par mois, ou tout au m.oins trimestre par<br />
trimestre. Pour chaque mais :<br />
- on raycrte tocs les sji obserTr8s en regard des qji qui lem cor-<br />
rnsporifimt ?<br />
- on oowtzte m e grande difipxioy, rnwie avec tendance tres nette<br />
5 i:.-ax aroissmc~ des sj.; avec les ?%$iq
La dispersion est souvent telle que l'utilisation sans précaution d'une ré-<br />
gression poserait des problèmes importants de réduction de variance, davantage<br />
que pour les débits. Pour éviter ces inconvénients, nous avons mis au point la<br />
technique suivante qui a au moins l'avantage de respecter intégralement les pro-<br />
priétés statistiques de l'échantillon.<br />
On détermine un certain nombre de classes de débits,<br />
Classe 1 O à ,qj<br />
Classe 2 lqj à ,qj<br />
------------------<br />
Classe k k-,qj à ,qj<br />
Classe k+l > ,qj ,<br />
de telle façon qu'à l'intérieur de chacune on puisse considérer que l'influence<br />
de la variation du débit sur la salinité est négligeable. Eh associant, à chaque<br />
qj de l~échantillon, la valeur s. correspondante, on constitue autant de 'Iréservoirstt<br />
de salures qu'il y a de classes de débits. Avec les précautions prises,<br />
dans chaque réservoir s est indépendant de qo Les différentes salinités contenues<br />
dans un, réservoir sont identifiées par un numéro.<br />
-<br />
A l'ORSTOM, l'opération est effectuée au moyen du programe 703 pour un<br />
découpage mensuel (comme ici) et par le programme 703 bis si le découpage est trimestriel.<br />
Le résultat est une matrice des salures à trois dimensions dont les<br />
indices représentent<br />
- le numéro d'ordre de la salure dans le réservoir,<br />
- le mois,<br />
- la classe de débit à laquelle appartient le débit associé à la<br />
salinit é.<br />
Cette matrice permet de reconstituer les salues correspondant à tous les<br />
débits moyens journaliers observés pour lesquels il n'y a pas eu de mesure de salinité.<br />
Le programme 704, qui fait cette opération pour un découpage mensuel,<br />
procède de la façon suivante :<br />
a - Wegistrement de la matrice des salures.<br />
- Lecture des débits limites de classeso<br />
- Lecture de la matrice des salures (aanS L'ordre : classe, mois,<br />
numéro de série de la salure) : ECHASA (NOCL, MOIS, K).<br />
b - Lecture des débits journaliers.<br />
- On lit les débits journaliers pour un mois et on les met dans<br />
un veateur à 31 positions DEB (JIo<br />
- Au fur et à mesure de la lecture par carte de quinzaine, on<br />
reperfore les données pour constituer un jeu définitif débits<br />
et salures.<br />
C - Lecture des salures moyennes journalières.<br />
- ~n lit les saïures moyennes pour un mois (ie méme que celui<br />
des débits qu'on vient de traiter) et on les range dans un vecteur<br />
SAL (J).<br />
d - Détermination des salures journalières manquantes.<br />
- Dans une boucle J = l,3l, on teste d'abord DEB (JIo S'il est<br />
négatif, c'est qu'il n'y a pas de débit observé pour le jour
415<br />
J ; il n'est donc pas possible de complèter la salinité et on<br />
passe. S'il est positif, on teste SAI; (J) ; si elle est positive,<br />
c'est qu'il y a observation de sdinité ; on passe,, S'il<br />
est négatif, on complète.<br />
- Pour compléter : on cherche dans quelle classe se trouve<br />
X æ DEE3 (j), soit NOCZ ; on tire au hasard un nombre inférieur<br />
ou égal à NC, nombre de salures classées dans NOCL, soit K,<br />
et on associe à DEB (J) une salure SAL (J) égale 2 ECHASA<br />
(NOCL, MOIS, K).<br />
e - Perforation des salinités sous la m&me forme que les débits observés.<br />
On revient alors à b- pour lire les débits du mois suivant, et<br />
on continue airisi jusqu'à épuisement des données.<br />
L'opération a permis de constituer un échmtillon pour lequel à<br />
chaque débit moyen journalier correspond une salme moyenne journalière. Pour les<br />
mois complets en débits observés, on peut alors calculer les salures moyennes mensuelles,<br />
Restent les mois pour lesquels on a pu reconstituer les débits moyenc<br />
mensuels, sans posséder les débits journaliers (homogénéisation) Pour leur attribuer<br />
une salme moyenne, on procede d'une façon analoge à ce qui précède,<br />
4,- Calcul de l'échantillon historique pour le modèle<br />
Lors du découpage géographique, on s'arrange pou que les stations du réseau<br />
tombent autant que possible à des limites d'unités hydrauliques, Mais cela<br />
n'est pas toujours possible dfune part, et d'autre part les unités hydrauliques<br />
sont toujours plus nombreuses que les stations de mesure, I1 est donc nécessaire<br />
de procéder à une interpolation géographique, et m&ne parfois d'utiliser l'analogie<br />
et la transposition pour calculer tous les An, SAn, ACn et SACn,<br />
Pour le calcul des An et ACn (apports), on comnence par dresser un tableau<br />
donnant, pour chaque unité n, sa superficie et la nat-.ne des apports, Lorsque<br />
l'unité est encadrée en amont et en aval, on fait simplement une répartition au<br />
prorata des superficies, au moins dans un premier stade (interpolation géographique).<br />
Lorsque l'unité est en dehors du réseau des stations, on cherche à lui<br />
attribuer un débit spécifique par comparaison avec d'autres parties mieux connues<br />
du bassin ou avec d'autres bassins que l'on suppose avoir le mbe régime (extrapolation<br />
ou transposition) Cette dernière opération provoque nécessairement une<br />
légère erreur systématique par défaut sur la variance de l'échantillon global<br />
constitué pour le modèle, mais cette influence est presque toujomnégligeable.<br />
Si l'unité hydraulique est confondue avec le bassin versant d'une station<br />
de base, on identifie les apports As à la station a u apports An sur l'unité.<br />
si la station de base est unique et son bassin versant différent de l'uni-<br />
té, les apports An sur l'unité sont obtenus à partir de ceux de la station de<br />
base As par calcul au prorata des superficies des bassins : An = As * Sn/Sso<br />
Si 2 stations de base encadrent la limite de l'mité hydraulique, les ap-<br />
ports An sur l'unité sont calculés par interpolation linéaire entre les apports<br />
As7 et As2 aux stations 7 et 2 : A ds1 -t (As2 - Asl) * (Sn - Ssl)/(Ss2 - Ss7)-<br />
Pour calculer des apports intermédiaires ACn avec 2 stations de base encadrant<br />
l'unité, on applique la relation : ACn = (As2 - AsII * Sn/(Ss2 - SSI)~<br />
Lors des calculs relatifs au 4ème cas, on rencontre parfois quelques difficultés<br />
: au pas de temps mensuel, la différence entre les apports observés à la<br />
station aval et ceux de la station amont peut &tre négative bien que le bilan
416<br />
annuel soit normalement positif. Ceci se produit en particulier lorsque les deux<br />
stations de base sont assez éloignées ou séparées par un bassin intermédiaire<br />
de grande surface comportant des affluents dont le régime hydrologique diffère,<br />
de celui du cours d'eau SUT lequel est située la station la plus amont. On peut<br />
alors procéder comme suit, pour différentes unités hydrauliques situées entre<br />
deux stations de base.<br />
- On calcule les apports intermédiaires mensuels et annuels entre les<br />
2 stations.<br />
- On détermine la distribution temporelle moyenne de cet écoulement<br />
intermédiaire pour la totalit 6 de la période disponible (période d'observations<br />
communes entre les deux stations). On obtient ainsi des coefficients mensuels de<br />
distribution exprimés en $ du module interannuel.<br />
- Pour chaque année de la période de reconstitution, on utilise ces<br />
coefficients pour le calcul de l'apport intermédiaire mensuel à partir de l'ap-<br />
port annuel observé.<br />
- On répartit cet apport intermédiaire mensuel sur chaque unité au<br />
prorata de sa superficie et de celle du bassin versant intermédiaire.<br />
Cette difficulté ne devrait du reste pas se présenter si les apports aux<br />
stations de base ont été soigneusement préparés.<br />
I1 y a de nombreuses façons de calculer les SAn et SACn. On pourrait par<br />
exemple passer par l'intermédiaire des poids de sel transités mois par mois aux<br />
stati'ons de base, et opérer de façon analogue à ce qui a été fait pour les ap-<br />
ports. Cela supposerait une certaine homogénéité dans la production de la salure<br />
pour l'ensemble du bassin, ou tout au moins pour des parties importantes du<br />
bassin facilement délitnitables. Cette condition n'est pas toujours r8alisée et<br />
l'origine de la salure des eaux est souvent localisée,<br />
L'interpolation géographique peut &tre sérieusement améliorée si on dispose,<br />
pour chaque bassin d'alimentation d'une unité, des surfaces des formations<br />
salines, et si on peut établir une relation entre cette surface et l'apport de<br />
sel, Ceci revient à définir pour un mois m donné une relation de la forme :<br />
Sape = fs (Qspe, pS) OU Supe est l'apport ,spécifique en sel, Q l'apport spéspe<br />
cifique en eau et pS le pourcentage de formation saline.<br />
Avec une bonne carte lithographique, on peut assez facilement déterminer<br />
pS pour tous les bassins fournisseurs des unités et pour les bassins contrbiés<br />
par des stations de réseau. Le problème serait alors résolu s'il était possible<br />
de déteminer fs avec une approximation convenable. Cette détermination ne peut<br />
se faire qu'en traçant un faisceau de courbes expérimentales à partir des résul-<br />
tats des stations du réseau. La précision dépend du nombre de mesures disponi-<br />
bles à chaque station, du nombre de stations et de la variabilité de pS, ce der-<br />
nier facteur étant particulièrement important.<br />
Si l'information disponible est insuffisante, ce qui est presque toujours<br />
le cas, il est préférable de procéder par analogie. Nous indiquerons la méthode<br />
utilisée par H. DOSSEUR (0,R.S.T.O.M.). On part de séries d'apports et de salures<br />
déjà constituées pour les stations de base.<br />
Si le bassin de l'unité est confondu avec celui d'une station, on iden-<br />
tifie les concentrations. Sinon, on affecte 5 chaque unité une station choisie<br />
de telle façon que son bassin soit le plus représentatif de celui de l'unité<br />
considérée, compte tenu de sa situation géographique et de sa nature galogique.<br />
Ce choix peut &tre précisé à partir de renseignements concernant la salinité<br />
dans un secteur déterminé (mesures ponctuelles, indications d'ordre qualitatif...).
41 7<br />
On associe à l'unité considérée les réservoirs de d ures élaborés pour la sta-<br />
tion @ lui a été affectée, Pour chaque débit ACn, on détermine une concentra-<br />
tion moyenne SACn par tirage au hasard dans ces réservoirs, suivant la méthode<br />
indiquée antérieurement, avec toutefois une transformation préalable des clas-<br />
ses de débits en classes de débits spécifiques pour tenir compte du rapport des<br />
superficies entre l'unité et le bassin de la station associ&,<br />
Du fait m&me de la méthode utilisée, l1échantillon des SACn présentera<br />
2 peu près sûrement des incompatibilités analogues à celles qui ont été signalées<br />
pour les débits liquides, I1 faudra donc contr8ler, au moyen d'un programme<br />
annexe, que les poids de sel P% = AG * SAC, obtenus pour chaque mois de chaque<br />
année de la période historique sont tels que le PS d'un point quelconque<br />
du réseau hydropaphique est au moins égal au PS de tout point situé à son<br />
amont, et que, si un point i limite à ï'avaï une unité limitée à ll~ont par<br />
des points 1, m r, Psi doit &tre au moins égal à Psi I- PS, I- oooooop PS, ,<br />
Pour tous les mois Ou ces conditions ne sont pas réalisées, il est indispensable<br />
de retoucher la répartition des salinités dans le bassin pour rétablir<br />
la compatibilit 6.<br />
* *<br />
*
41 8<br />
Fig:l - SCHEMA TOPOLOGIQUE
ABSTRACT<br />
THE USE OF SIMULATION TECHNIQUES FOR SEQUENTAL<br />
GENERATION OF SHORT-SIZED RAINFALL DATA AND ITS<br />
APPLICATION IN THE ESTIMATION OF DESIGN FLOOD<br />
H.D.Sharma*, Dr.A.P.Bhattacharya** and S.R.Jindal;t**<br />
The studies based on rainfall run<strong>of</strong>f data are considerably vi-<br />
tiated in the event <strong>of</strong> inadequate data, as the reliability o€ the<br />
probabilities <strong>of</strong> occurrence is reduced, It is, however, possible to<br />
get over the lacuna <strong>of</strong> inadequacy <strong>of</strong> data by creating bigger-sized<br />
artificial series <strong>of</strong> rainfall. The use <strong>of</strong> such a series gives grea-<br />
ter precision in the estimations or projections based on expected m a<br />
ximum rainfall <strong>with</strong> specified levels <strong>of</strong> occurrence and also provides<br />
better insight into possible patterns <strong>of</strong> behaviour. This is done by<br />
the procedure <strong>of</strong> sequential generation fo data by the use <strong>of</strong> simula-<br />
tion techniques. Making use <strong>of</strong> these, the technique has been applied<br />
for generating rainfall series <strong>of</strong> 100 nombers on the basis <strong>of</strong> recor-<br />
ded rainfall data for a period <strong>of</strong> ten years, The generated rainfall<br />
series was compared <strong>with</strong> the historical data which showed strong co-<br />
rrelation.<br />
These results have been used for the estimation <strong>of</strong> design<br />
flood for Yamuna river at Okhla (Delhi).<br />
Les procédés qui consistent à déduire les écoulements des pr5<br />
cipitations voient leur efficacité considérablement diminuée lorsque<br />
les observations concecnant celles-ci sont insuffisantes, par suite<br />
de l'imprécision qui regne alors sur l'estimation des probabilités<br />
de ces précipitations. On peut essayer de tourner la difficulté en<br />
créant artificiellement de longues séries d'observations pluviométri<br />
ques. L'utilisation de telles séries conduit a une meilleure préci-<br />
sion des estimations ou des prédéterminations basées sur la pluie ma<br />
ximale attendue avec une probabilité donnée; elle permet aussi une<br />
meilleure vue suc les schémas possibles du comportement des précipi-<br />
tations. On procede par génération séquentielle des données, en uti-<br />
lisant les techniques de simulation, On donne comme exemple la cons-<br />
titution d'une série de 100 ans à partir d'une période de 10 ans<br />
d'observations. La séries engendrée , comparée avec la sérìe histori<br />
que, met en 'evidence une forte corrélation.<br />
Ces résultats ont étd utilisés pour l'estimation d'une crue<br />
de projet à Okhla, sur le fleuve Yamuna [Delhi).<br />
* Director , Irrigation Research Institute , Roorkee, U .P,<br />
$:* Research Officer , Basic Research Division, Irrigation Research<br />
Institute, Roorkee, U.P.<br />
;'
420<br />
i. INTRODUCTION<br />
1.1 In all iqr-gothetical investigations, particularly in the estimation<br />
<strong>of</strong> design flood <strong>of</strong> river basins, it 1s essential to have an idea <strong>of</strong> the<br />
distribution <strong>of</strong> rainfall as also the relationship between rainfall a d<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f. This is, however, not always possible in case <strong>of</strong> small sized<br />
data, extending over 8ay 10 to 20 years as is usually met vit<br />
oractice, as these may not be representative <strong>of</strong> the vorst possible<br />
conditions prevaillng in the catchment. On account <strong>of</strong> such shortcomings,<br />
it is likely that the findings based thereon may not be realistic. This<br />
difficulty may be overcome by resorting to the technique <strong>of</strong> sequential<br />
generation <strong>with</strong> the aid <strong>of</strong> which it is possible to artificially create<br />
larger sized data series.<br />
2. CONCWT OF W?UENTIAL GEWERI'EION<br />
2.1 sequential generation is a statistical process usiag Monte Carlo<br />
methods to produce a random sequence <strong>of</strong> hydrologic or any other data<br />
on the basis <strong>of</strong> a stochastic model for the hydrologic process. Monte<br />
Carlo method is an experimental or merical probability method used<br />
for the statistical sampling <strong>of</strong> random variables. The sequence so<br />
generated makes possible detailed study <strong>of</strong> the performance <strong>of</strong> various<br />
hydrologic events, thus helping the development <strong>of</strong> well balanced hydo<br />
rologic designs.<br />
2.2 U<strong>nl</strong>ess the record is too meagre to be considered as a represento-<br />
tive sample, the statistical parameters derived from It should enable<br />
the hydrologist to construct a suitable model that wlll generate<br />
hydrologic information for as long a period <strong>of</strong> time as desired. Bnce<br />
the statistical parameters <strong>of</strong> the population <strong>of</strong> the generated data<br />
are necessarily the same as those estimated from the bistorical date,<br />
the new information is limited<br />
that are inherent in the observed record.<br />
3<br />
errors <strong>of</strong> measurement and sampling<br />
n
2.3 The procedure <strong>of</strong> sampling by shuffling; cards which waa among the<br />
srllest techniques can be simplified by the use <strong>of</strong> random number tables.<br />
naugh random number tables are available as punched cards, <strong>with</strong> Increase<br />
3g use <strong>of</strong> digital cornputor, mathematical methods for generating pseu-<br />
Fndom numbers <strong>with</strong>in the computing machine have been developed'in order<br />
2.4<br />
eliminate the need for extensive input <strong>of</strong> random numbers.<br />
3 the basis <strong>of</strong> required statistical levels <strong>of</strong> errors and confidence,<br />
Lthough the optimal size may be determined more realistically by compar-<br />
the cost <strong>of</strong> the Increased sample size <strong>with</strong> the benefits <strong>of</strong> the corres-<br />
4 21<br />
The size <strong>of</strong> the hydrological data to be generated may be estimated<br />
mding increase in accuracy, provided that the benefit and cost data<br />
:e available.<br />
, ANàLYSIS OF RAINFALL QATA<br />
3.1<br />
The rainfall data analyse8 herein pertain to 6 hour annual storms<br />
?corded at New Delhi for a period <strong>of</strong> 10 years from 1956 to 1965. They<br />
ive been arranged in such e manner that the storm starts <strong>with</strong> the first<br />
burly rainfall and ends at the 6th hourly rainfall, although in reality<br />
Le arrangement may be vitiated in some cases by the occurrence <strong>of</strong> a<br />
Bizzle before the recording <strong>of</strong> the main _portion <strong>of</strong> the storm or by<br />
beaks <strong>with</strong>in the duration <strong>of</strong> the storm. The recorded data may be seen<br />
I Table I.<br />
FORMULBTION OF THE MATHEMûTICAL MODEL<br />
:.1 To develop a suitable model to represent the time degendent<br />
ndom process <strong>of</strong> the hourly rginfalls, the following non-stationary<br />
rkov-chain niodel(l) was found to be consistently satisfactory.<br />
.) Ven Te Chow, Handbook <strong>of</strong> Applied <strong>Hydrology</strong>, pp. 8-93,<br />
McGraw Hill Book Co.
422<br />
......... (1)<br />
where xt x the hourly rainggll <strong>of</strong> any one <strong>of</strong> B annual<br />
storms at the t hour,<br />
xt-1 z the hgurly rainfall at the preceding or the<br />
(t-i) h hour,<br />
t = time in hour ranging from 1 to m,<br />
r = Markov Chain Coefficient,<br />
6~ = random component due to hourly rainfall xt ,<br />
For the first hour when t = 1, the trend component r Xt,l become<br />
zero and X1 may be taken to be equal to €1 . The Markov Chah Coeffi-<br />
cient r and the random component €G may be determined from the give1<br />
rainfall data by the method <strong>of</strong> least squares by fitting a straight<br />
line between Xt and Xt-1.<br />
4.2 For the rainfall data recorded at New Delhi Station, the storm<br />
duration m =6 hours and number <strong>of</strong> annual storms, Ns10. The distribi<br />
tion parameters, mean and standard deviation <strong>of</strong> the historical rain.<br />
fall data were determined for each hour and are given in column 2 ai<br />
3 <strong>of</strong> Table II. The values <strong>of</strong> the random component et and the Markov<br />
Chain Coefficient r were worked out by the method <strong>of</strong> least squares<br />
and are shown in columns 4 end 5 in Table II.<br />
4.3 In the present analysis based on sequential generation, the<br />
oractice followed has been to generate 100 pseudo-random numbers fo:<br />
uniform distribution <strong>of</strong> the first hourly rainfall by I.B.M. Compute:<br />
1401, whose programme is given in igpendix I. These 100 generated<br />
random mmbers <strong>of</strong> a uniform distribution have been taken as first<br />
hourly rainfalls <strong>of</strong> 100 storms and have been utilized for computing<br />
100 second hourly rainfalls by the Markov-chain model given in<br />
equation (1).
4.4 The rainfall data have been generated for each successive hour on<br />
the basis <strong>of</strong> the rainfall in tlx? previous hour according to the Markov<br />
chain model formulated. Knowing the Markov chain coefficient r and<br />
random component 6,for the second hour derived from the historical data<br />
(vide Table II) a random series <strong>of</strong> 100 second hourly rainfalls can be<br />
comouted by means <strong>of</strong> equation (i). These 100 generated second hourly<br />
rainfall were then utilized to compute 100 third hourly rainfalls <strong>with</strong><br />
the help <strong>of</strong> Markov chain coefficient r and random component (vide<br />
3<br />
Table II) by using equation (i). This procedure has been repeated for<br />
successive hourly rainfalls until serles <strong>of</strong> 100 hourly rainfalls for<br />
all the six hours were generated. The involved operations were carried<br />
out on IBM computer, 1620 as per programe given in Appendix II. The<br />
sequentially generated data has been shown in Table III.<br />
4.5 The cumulative probability function P(x) <strong>of</strong> the variate X may be<br />
obtained by the following equation;<br />
where ,.ho 5 Y & ,h~<br />
.o (2)<br />
fiois the lower limit <strong>of</strong> the variate X which may be assumed to be zero<br />
an8 is the upper limit <strong>of</strong> variaue X.<br />
4.5.1<br />
In the present analysis, the total hourly rainfall <strong>of</strong> annual<br />
storms have been worked out by adding all the six hourly rainfalls for<br />
each storm <strong>of</strong> historical data as well as generated data as per column 8<br />
<strong>of</strong> Tables I and III respectively. The cumulative probability per cents<br />
have been evaluated by the use <strong>of</strong> equation (a for ten storms <strong>of</strong> the<br />
historical data as ?er column (9) <strong>of</strong> Table I as also for 100 storms <strong>of</strong><br />
the generated data as per column (9) <strong>of</strong> Table III.<br />
423
424<br />
5. EsTIYVìTION OF DESIGN FLOOD WITH THE AID OF GENERATED RAINFALL S ~ I<br />
5.1<br />
It is possible to derive a series <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>fs from the generated<br />
rainfall series provided that the relationship between rainfall and<br />
<strong>of</strong>f for a particular basin is known. In the present Case, in which<br />
sequential generation techniques have been applied for o<strong>nl</strong>y on rainfall<br />
station in the Yamuna catchment, vie. New Delhi and for wNch 110 rain-<br />
fall-run<strong>of</strong>f relationship was available, an assum3tion has been made tha<br />
surface run<strong>of</strong>f from rain storm is 80 per cent <strong>of</strong> rainfall during the<br />
period <strong>of</strong> high floods when most <strong>of</strong> the catchment is saturated and in-<br />
filtration losses are <strong>of</strong> low order. Based on this preamble, a series<br />
<strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>fs may be assumed to be generated. The abovezentioned series<br />
can be utilised to compute the peak floods <strong>with</strong> the help <strong>of</strong> unit<br />
hydrograph developed at the gauge site and other methods.<br />
5.2 The series <strong>of</strong> 100 peak floods comguted for the river Yamuna at<br />
Okhla (catchment area = 6811 sq. Kms.) shown in column 10 <strong>of</strong> Table<br />
III has been used to derive the following stochastic model on the<br />
Dasis <strong>of</strong> princi<strong>nl</strong>es <strong>of</strong> stochastic hydrology reported earlier for<br />
the estimation <strong>of</strong> design<br />
wnere yo is the design flood and Tk is the recurrence interval.<br />
5.3 From Mg. 4 based on above, the design flood <strong>with</strong> a recurrence<br />
interval <strong>of</strong> 500 years works out to 7794.5 cumec for the Yamuna river<br />
at Okhla (Delhi). It may however be 2ointed out that this should be<br />
talen to be more as an illustration <strong>of</strong> the application <strong>of</strong> the techn-<br />
ique <strong>of</strong> sequential generation for the estimation <strong>of</strong> the design flood<br />
in view <strong>of</strong> the limitations <strong>of</strong> the rainfall data for the entire catch-<br />
ent and - ilitv <strong>of</strong> a rainfall ru ela t i o =hi D<br />
(2) ,,ttZharya>A8P., Jindal, S.R. and RamJ%ff :Estimation <strong>of</strong> <strong>Design</strong>--<br />
Flood <strong>of</strong> the Ganga Fiver by processes <strong>of</strong> Stochastic hydrology",<br />
U. 2. Annual Besearch rieport, 1967 (Technical Memorandum No. 37) .<br />
1
5. DISCUSSION OF RLiSULTS<br />
6.1 Figure 1 gives a comparison between the worst possible raiaall<br />
;tarm <strong>of</strong> the historical data and the generated series an the basis <strong>of</strong><br />
I gra3hical plot between time in hours and hourly rainfall. It is<br />
.ndicated that there is close Conformity for the entire storm dura-<br />
,ion comorising six hours.<br />
6.2<br />
425<br />
Gra^hical comparison has been made bbtwecn historical and generated<br />
Iata <strong>with</strong> respect to cumulative probability distributian <strong>of</strong> rainfall at<br />
he third hour, at which the peak rainfall was rècorded in the observa-<br />
ional as well as seqtientially generated data as per Figure 2. Close<br />
ionformity is indicated between the two distributions.<br />
6.3 similar comlarison has also been made for the two series for total<br />
ix-hourly rainfall for the annual storms as shown in Figure 3. Close<br />
ionformitg is observed in this case as well, both for ehird hourly rain-<br />
'all and total six-hourly rainfall, which provides added evidence regard-<br />
ng the representativeness <strong>of</strong> the sequentially generated series.<br />
6.4 mom the generated rainfall series, it has been ,possible to derive<br />
cm?<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f serles which has been utilised toda series <strong>of</strong> 100 peak dischar-<br />
es. The latter orovide the background for the derivation <strong>of</strong> a stochastic<br />
ode1 wherefrom a hypothetical 500-year design flood for the Yamuna<br />
iver at okhla (Delhi) may be estimated.<br />
7.1<br />
COI;CLU~IOMS<br />
he size <strong>of</strong> the historical data, particularly in such investigations<br />
herein this may be a limiting factor for analytical studies.<br />
7.2<br />
The technique <strong>of</strong> sequentiaï generation may be adopted for increasing<br />
storm rainfall is a time dependent raridom series and may be treated<br />
y El finite duration discrete non-stationary process that is ameneble to<br />
athematical formlation and analysis. For rainfall at New Delhi, the<br />
istorical data <strong>of</strong> hourly rainfall in the annual storm has been regresented<br />
y nan-stationary Markov-chain model, the data consisting <strong>of</strong> ten .six-
426<br />
hourly storms.<br />
7.3 A compari n <strong>of</strong> the historical and generat LI 100 y ar data, both<br />
for third hourly rainfall and total six hourly rainfall, shows that the<br />
sequentially generated series is fairly representative <strong>of</strong> the charactei<br />
istics <strong>of</strong> the historical data.<br />
7.4 The generated hydrologic series <strong>of</strong> rainf'all has been utilised to<br />
estimate the design flood <strong>of</strong> the Yamuna river at Okhla(De1hi) <strong>with</strong> a<br />
recurrence, interval <strong>of</strong> 500 years.<br />
The authors wish to acknowledge the useful help extended by<br />
Messrs Ramjeet and D.C.Mltta1 in the analysis and computational work.<br />
APPENDIX I<br />
Fortran program for the generation <strong>of</strong> PseudÕrandom<br />
numbers in Uniform Mctribution. 4<br />
SE Q spm FORTUN STATENE2iT<br />
1<br />
2<br />
3<br />
4<br />
5<br />
6<br />
7<br />
8<br />
9<br />
10<br />
11<br />
12<br />
13<br />
14<br />
15<br />
16<br />
17<br />
18<br />
19<br />
20<br />
C GEN-RATION OF 100 ?SEUDORANDUM Nuz.[BERS IN<br />
UNIFORM DI SJXtBUTION<br />
10 IALFA- 10**17 -C 3<br />
IRN1 = 10*(10**19-1) -b 7<br />
8% 0.0<br />
N=l<br />
91 READ 95,B<br />
95 FC-WAT (F4.2)<br />
Do 2 I = 1,100<br />
IRN IRNl*IALFA<br />
RSN= IRN<br />
RSJ!N= RUN* 10.0**(-20)<br />
SN = (B-A)* RSTN .) A<br />
R=N+1<br />
IRNI= Im<br />
2RIhT loo, SW<br />
100 FORMAT (2E 16 e 8)<br />
2 COICTIhUE<br />
IF (SENSE ShkTCS O) 92,3<br />
3 GO TO 91<br />
92 STOP 555<br />
END
10<br />
100<br />
APPENDIX II<br />
Fortran program for the generation <strong>of</strong> i00 slx hourly<br />
rainfall storms for New Delhi Station by Markov-chain<br />
Model.<br />
DIMEESIONS X(iOO),A(lOO) ,B(100) ,C(iOO) ,D(iOO) ,G(100),<br />
DIEIEKSI ONS Y ( 100 ,V ( 100 )<br />
READ 100, (X(I), I = 1,100)<br />
FORMAT (~oF7.4)<br />
cupi = 0.0<br />
SUMA = 0.0<br />
SUMB = 0.0<br />
SUlC = 0.0<br />
m!D = 0.0<br />
SUMG = 0.0<br />
smfl = 0.0<br />
DO 200 I = 1,100<br />
b(1)' 0.973 -k 1*551*X(I)<br />
B(1) 2 15.023 46.694*A(I)<br />
C(I) = 12.297- 0*036*B(I)<br />
D(1) z L.871 + O. 106*C(I)<br />
G(1) = 0.138 4 0.400*D(I)<br />
Y(1) = X(1) + A(1) t BU) t C(l) -k D(I)S G(1)<br />
V (I ) = 664.9 *Y (I )<br />
X(1)<br />
suMx= s w+<br />
SUMA = SUMA t A(1)<br />
SüMl3 = SUMB f B(I)<br />
swc SUMC -t C(I)<br />
SUMD = SUMD + D(1)<br />
SUMG = SUIVIG + G(1)<br />
SUMV = smn +V(I)<br />
PUNCH300, X(I ,A (I 1 , B(I 1 , C (I ) , D( I , G (I ,Y (1<br />
PUNCH350 ,V (I )<br />
350 FORMi1T (FS0.4)<br />
300 FORMAT (7F10.4)<br />
200 CGEJTI NUE<br />
PUNCH 400, SUMX, S W<br />
400 FORMAT (6F12.4)<br />
,"UI\+CH 500,SUMV<br />
500 FORMAT (F 25.4)<br />
STO?<br />
ENI)<br />
, SUME , SUMC, SUMD , SUMG<br />
42 7
428<br />
TABLE I<br />
Historical hourly rainfall data for annual storms for New Delhi Station<br />
1<br />
2<br />
3<br />
4<br />
5<br />
6<br />
7<br />
a<br />
9<br />
10<br />
20; 7.56<br />
13.9.57<br />
29-90 58<br />
6.9.59<br />
5.10.69<br />
24.9.61<br />
20.9062<br />
8.8.63<br />
14.7.64<br />
2.9.65<br />
0.25<br />
1. 80<br />
2.00<br />
‘O. 10<br />
O. #<br />
o. 10<br />
0.30<br />
1.50<br />
O. 40<br />
1.90<br />
O. 50<br />
2.10<br />
3.30<br />
4.60<br />
O. 80<br />
0.40<br />
O. 50<br />
le 80<br />
1.50<br />
7.80<br />
19.30<br />
22. so<br />
42.00<br />
54.20<br />
19.10<br />
8.50<br />
21.50<br />
new<br />
30.00<br />
61.20<br />
14.75<br />
8.10<br />
13. so<br />
3.50<br />
9000<br />
5.50<br />
9.10<br />
22.00<br />
17.20<br />
9.30<br />
4.06 1.02<br />
5030 3060<br />
11.90 5.60<br />
0.50 0.20<br />
2.00 0.40<br />
2.40 0.08<br />
0.10 0.10<br />
1.80 1.50<br />
1.80 0.90<br />
0.70 0.20<br />
39.88<br />
43.40<br />
78.30<br />
63.10<br />
31.70<br />
16.98<br />
31.60<br />
56. So<br />
51.80<br />
81.10<br />
49.2<br />
53.5<br />
96.5<br />
770 8<br />
39.1<br />
20.9<br />
39.0<br />
69.7<br />
63.9<br />
100 o<br />
TABLE II<br />
fa<br />
Parameters <strong>of</strong> the Markov-Chain Model(hour1y rainfall <strong>of</strong> annual storms<br />
<strong>of</strong> New mihi ‘Sation.<br />
Time í t 1 Mean (mm/hour) Stendard Random Markov-Chai n<br />
in hours devi at i on component coefficient<br />
(mmhour 1 et r<br />
1<br />
1 2 3 4<br />
-<br />
b<br />
o. 875 O 8122 .I<br />
2 2.330 2.3522 0.973 lo 551<br />
3 30.620 16o7600 15.023 6.694<br />
4<br />
5<br />
11.195 5.8190 12.297 -0 036<br />
3.056 3.4928 1.871 0.106<br />
6 l b 360 1.8311 0. 138 0.400<br />
II
429
Co<br />
I<br />
431
432<br />
FIG 1 - DISTRIBUTION OF WORST RAINFALL STORM<br />
FOR NEW DELHI<br />
10 30 50 80 90 95 99 99.8 999!<br />
CU M U L A T IV E PR OB AB ILtTY PERCE NT<br />
F IG.2 - CUMLILATIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF<br />
THIFiC 40URLY RAINFALL IN ANNUAL STORMS
E<br />
O<br />
I<br />
-I<br />
4<br />
I-<br />
O<br />
k- 20<br />
433<br />
40 60 80 90 95 98 99 99.8 99.99<br />
CU MU LAT IVE PROBABIL I TY PERCE NT<br />
RECURRENCE INTERVAL (Tk) IN YEARS<br />
FIG.4- STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR ESTIMATION OF<br />
DESIGN FLOOD (Yo1 FROM RECURRENCE<br />
INTERVAL ( TK)
ABSTRACT<br />
THE USE OF STOCHASTIC MODELS IN A HYDRO-AGRICULTURAL<br />
DEVELOPMENT PROJECT IN LEBANON"<br />
by<br />
J.H. Visser<br />
Stochastic modelling techniques were employed in order to<br />
provide long sequences <strong>of</strong> monthly streamflow and water demand needed<br />
for irrigation scheme design (the historic flow records being too<br />
short to serve this purpose).<br />
The water requirement calculations (<strong>with</strong> the Blaney Criddle<br />
formula) were based on generated series <strong>of</strong> monthly rainfall and<br />
monthly mean temperature. The generation "in phase" <strong>of</strong> these variables<br />
<strong>with</strong> streamflow, ensured that a dry year was characterised by high<br />
demand and low flow, This strategy <strong>of</strong> Ilin phase" generation was<br />
preferred to the more usual treatment <strong>of</strong> assuming a fixed annual<br />
cycle <strong>of</strong> demands and allowed for a better assessment <strong>of</strong> the design<br />
parameters and a better economic evaluation.<br />
The Ilin phaset1 series required the generation <strong>of</strong><br />
- monthly rainfall (simple model due to absence <strong>of</strong><br />
persistance)<br />
- monthly mean temperature (mixed model <strong>with</strong> auto regression<br />
and linear regression on monthly rainfall)<br />
- annual streamflow (<strong>with</strong> linear regression on annual<br />
rainfall )<br />
- monthly streamflow, related to the annual flow, using auto<br />
regression (for stations having a historic record <strong>of</strong> more<br />
than 10 years)<br />
- monthly streamflow, related to the annual flow, using auto<br />
regression <strong>of</strong> a deseasonalized variable and and linear<br />
regression on the same variable <strong>of</strong> another (better) station.<br />
(for stations having less than 10 years <strong>of</strong> record).<br />
Undertaken jointly by the Government <strong>of</strong> Lebanon and the Food and<br />
Agriculture Organ2sation <strong>of</strong> the United Nations.
436<br />
RESUME<br />
Des méthodes stochastiques ont été utilisées pour pouvoir<br />
disposer de séries longues dtapport et de demande mensuels, nscessaires<br />
pour Irétude dfun projet d'hrigation. CLes séries historiques<br />
d'apport étant trop courtes pour être utilisées).<br />
Les besoins en eau (calculés avec la formule de Blaney-<br />
-Griddle) ont été basés sur des séries générées de la pluie et de la<br />
température mensuelles. La génération "en phase" de ces variables<br />
avec les apports a fait que l'année sèche se caractérise par une<br />
demande élevée et des apports faibles.<br />
Cette stratégie de génération Ifen phase" a été préférge par<br />
rapport à la méthode plus habituelle dlun cycle annuel fixe de la<br />
demande, et a permis une meilleure &valuation de la gestion diun<br />
projet d'irrigation aïnsi quiune meilleure évaluation économique.<br />
' -<br />
Les séries "en phase" ont nécessité la génération de<br />
- pluie mensuelle (modèle simple vu l'absence de persistance)<br />
- température mensuelle (modèle mixte de régression sérielle<br />
et de régression linéaire par rapport ?i la pluie mensuelle<br />
- apport annuel (régression simpie par rapport à ia pluie<br />
annuelle)<br />
apport mensuel, par rapport à ifapport annuel, avec<br />
régression sérielle (pour les stations ayant au moins 10<br />
années d'observations)<br />
- apport mensuel, par rapport à ifapport annuel, avec<br />
régression sérielle diune variable désaisonnalisée et de<br />
régression linéaire par rapport à la même yariable drune<br />
autre (meilleure] station (pour les stations ayant moins de<br />
10 annges d'observations).
1 - INTRODUCTION<br />
43 7<br />
1.1. One <strong>of</strong> the objectives <strong>of</strong> the UNDP/FAO Project LEBANON 13,<br />
concerning the hydro-agricultural development <strong>of</strong> North Lebanon, was to study<br />
an irrigation scheme <strong>of</strong> about 7 O00 ha in the KOURA-ZGHARTA region. For the<br />
water supply <strong>of</strong> this scheme a dam has to be constructed on the Aasfour river.<br />
The reservoir inflow can be provided by the Aasfour discharges together <strong>with</strong><br />
part <strong>of</strong> the streamflow <strong>of</strong> an adjacent river.<br />
To assess the performance <strong>of</strong> the design reservoir long series <strong>of</strong><br />
streamflow are needed to be routed through such a reservoir, Such long series<br />
<strong>of</strong> historic records were missing and the presence <strong>of</strong> outliers (very wet and<br />
several consecutive dry years), made it virtually impossible to establish<br />
<strong>with</strong> any confidence a return period for these outliers.<br />
1.2. The hydrologic information available in the Project area was<br />
based mai<strong>nl</strong>y on the following data :<br />
- -<br />
two streamflow series <strong>with</strong> 14 years <strong>of</strong> record<br />
-<br />
thirteen streamflow series <strong>with</strong> 3 to 5 years <strong>of</strong> record<br />
several rainfall series <strong>of</strong> about 30 years <strong>of</strong> record<br />
some temperature series <strong>of</strong> about 15 years <strong>of</strong> record.<br />
A good correlation exists between annual rainfall and streamflow<br />
but low values are found <strong>of</strong> the correlation coefficient between monthly rainfall<br />
and streamflow. This can be explained by the fact that the response <strong>of</strong><br />
the catchments to rainfall has a delay factor <strong>of</strong> one to two months due to the<br />
presence <strong>of</strong> snow and / or springs. It was thus impossible to apply the conventional<br />
technique <strong>of</strong> extending the shorter streamflow records by correlating<br />
them <strong>with</strong> the longer rainfall records, Unfortunately monthly streamflow data<br />
are needed for reservoir analysis studies,<br />
As the conventional techniques were unable to provide these data,<br />
the use <strong>of</strong> hydrological modelling techniques became necessary.<br />
1.3. Two main categories <strong>of</strong> mathematical models can be used in<br />
principle for this kind <strong>of</strong> problems : Deterministic and stochastic. The first<br />
category permits to extend the length <strong>of</strong> the historic streamflow series to<br />
the same length as the (longer) historic rainfall record. The stochastic mo-<br />
delling however permits to generate synthetic events <strong>of</strong> any length adequate<br />
for certain design purposes.<br />
A mixt use <strong>of</strong> a stochastic input into a deterministic model could<br />
be useful in principle but unfortunately no such valuable generating models<br />
for daily rainfall existed.
43 8<br />
1.4. The statistics, such as the expected frequency <strong>of</strong> failure<br />
<strong>of</strong> the design system, depend largely on the variation <strong>of</strong> the streamflow, i.e.<br />
on the values <strong>of</strong> the variance <strong>of</strong> monthly and annual flow. The stochastic model-<br />
ling techniques can improve the estimate <strong>of</strong> the variances <strong>of</strong> the shorter<br />
records by using the infoption available in the longer series.<br />
It was for all these reasons that the Lebanon 13 Project decided<br />
to apply stochastic modelling techniques.<br />
1.5. In order to apply generated series <strong>of</strong> streamflow in the<br />
reservoir simulation studies it was necessary to generate also long series <strong>of</strong><br />
rainfall and temperature in order to calculate long series <strong>of</strong> water demand. To<br />
avoid generating series <strong>of</strong> streamflow, rainfall and temperature that were un-<br />
correlated, a method <strong>of</strong> "in phase" generation was adopted, This phasing will<br />
ensure, for example, that during a dry year the values <strong>of</strong> streamflow and rain-<br />
fall are both low, together <strong>with</strong> high temperature values resulting in high de-<br />
mand for the year.<br />
1.6. For the calculation <strong>of</strong> crop water needs the Blaney-Criddle<br />
formula was used in view <strong>of</strong> the insufficiency <strong>of</strong> data for the Penman method.<br />
However from the point <strong>of</strong> view <strong>of</strong> the methodology, there 2s no objection to<br />
replace the Blaney-Criddle formula by that <strong>of</strong> Penman or another. The methodo-<br />
logy for adjusting water resources and water demand as applied to North Lebanon<br />
is explained schematically in the attached flow chart.<br />
2 - CHOICE OF TYPE OF STOCHASTIC MODELS<br />
2.1. The stochastic models, described hereafter, for the gene-<br />
ration <strong>of</strong> long time series for different variables which are mutually in phase,<br />
were proposed by Mr. J. Bernier, Chief <strong>of</strong> the Statistics Group at the Labora-<br />
toire National d'Hydraulique, Chatou (France) and consultant to the North<br />
Lebanon Project for stochastic hydrology. The models chosen were in response to<br />
the availability <strong>of</strong> data and other local conditions as well as to the objecti-<br />
ves <strong>of</strong> the study in particularly to provide input data for the simulation<br />
studies, which explains the use <strong>of</strong> monthly values <strong>of</strong> the different variables.<br />
-<br />
2.2. The elements on which this choice was based were :<br />
-<br />
a caracteristics <strong>of</strong> available data :<br />
streamflow : the presence <strong>of</strong> 2 series <strong>of</strong> 14 years <strong>of</strong> record
-<br />
The<br />
439<br />
- temperature : the presence <strong>of</strong> some series <strong>of</strong> about 15 years <strong>of</strong><br />
record and a significant value for the corre-<br />
lation between monthly rainfall and temperature<br />
during spring and autumn.<br />
- rainfall : several series <strong>of</strong> 30 years <strong>of</strong> record and a good<br />
correlation between rainfall and streamflow on<br />
annual basis but a bad one an monthly basis<br />
(due to snowfall and / or karsticity)<br />
- perennial flow <strong>of</strong> the rivers.<br />
(the temperature and rainfall series together permit the use <strong>of</strong><br />
Blaney-Criddle's formula for the calculation <strong>of</strong> crop water needs)<br />
requirements imposed by the methodology used for adjusting water resour-<br />
ces and water demand :<br />
- the series <strong>of</strong> streamflow and demand have to be in phase<br />
- the "being in phase" <strong>of</strong> streamflow and demand requires automati-<br />
cally the' "in phase" generation <strong>of</strong> the series <strong>of</strong> rainfall, tem-<br />
perature and streamflow.<br />
2.3. The short streamflow series (3 to 5 years <strong>of</strong> record) can<br />
o<strong>nl</strong>y be used after "deseasonalisation" <strong>of</strong> the variable (3) resulting in series<br />
<strong>of</strong> 36 to 60 months <strong>of</strong> record in which the different characteristics <strong>of</strong> the par-<br />
ticular months have been neutralised,<br />
2.4. The following transformations <strong>of</strong> the variables were necessa-<br />
ry in order to be able to use the normal distribution :<br />
- the logarithm <strong>of</strong> the discharges instead <strong>of</strong> the discharges<br />
- the square root <strong>of</strong> the rainfall instead <strong>of</strong> the rainfall (the<br />
temperature is taken <strong>with</strong>out any transformation).<br />
2.5. The particular features described above led to the applica-<br />
tion <strong>of</strong> the following generating models :<br />
1) A simple model for monthly rainfall due to the absence <strong>of</strong><br />
persistance in the monthly rainfall series. This model uses<br />
o<strong>nl</strong>y mean and variance <strong>of</strong> the historic record together <strong>with</strong><br />
generated random numbers (eq.1).<br />
2) A mixed model for monthly temperature using autoregression<br />
plus regression on another variable (monthly rainfall) and<br />
a random number generator (eq.2).
44 O<br />
3 - DESCRIPTION OF MODELS USED<br />
3) A simple regression model for annual streamflow using re-<br />
gression o,n annual rainfall plus a random number generator<br />
(for stations <strong>with</strong> at least 10 years <strong>of</strong> record) (eq.3).<br />
4) An autoregression model for monthly streamflow using the<br />
relation monthly / annual streamflow to give monthly stream-<br />
flow plus a random number generator (eq.4).<br />
5) A mixed autoregression model for monthly streamflow <strong>of</strong> a sta-<br />
tionary ("deseasonalised") variable <strong>with</strong> regression on the<br />
same variable <strong>of</strong> another station plus random number generator<br />
(stations having less than 10 years <strong>of</strong> record) (eq.7).<br />
3.1. Generation <strong>of</strong> monthly rainfall<br />
Hypothesis : normal distribution <strong>of</strong><br />
(Pt = monthly rainfall).<br />
The statistical analysis <strong>of</strong> the historic series <strong>of</strong> monthly rainfall<br />
gives the values <strong>of</strong> mt = the mean <strong>of</strong> the fit <strong>of</strong> the month t (12 values)<br />
and the s2t = the variance <strong>of</strong> the fit <strong>of</strong> the month t (also 12 values),<br />
Generating model :<br />
fitemt -+ st . u (eq.1)<br />
( 6 = o for Pt = 0)<br />
where : u is the random normal deviate <strong>with</strong> zero mean and unit variance<br />
- u = o, s2(u) = 1<br />
The square root <strong>of</strong> the rainfall depends thus on mt, st and U.<br />
3.2. Generation <strong>of</strong> mean monthly temperatures<br />
Hypothesis : normal distribution <strong>of</strong> Tt (Tt = mean monthly tempe-<br />
rature <strong>of</strong> month t).<br />
The generator model uses a correlation <strong>of</strong> temperature <strong>with</strong>
ainfall and is as follows :<br />
Tt,i = mean monthly temperature <strong>of</strong> month t (t runs from 1 to 12 and i<br />
represents the ith month after the start generation, i = 1,2 .... ><br />
Ut<br />
K i =<br />
mt<br />
U<br />
vt<br />
al,t<br />
= the mean <strong>of</strong> the mean monthly temperatures <strong>of</strong> month t, in period<br />
<strong>of</strong> record (12 values)<br />
square root <strong>of</strong> the rainfall <strong>of</strong> month t,i<br />
= the mean <strong>of</strong> the square root <strong>of</strong> the rainfall <strong>of</strong> month t, in period <strong>of</strong><br />
record (12 \talues)<br />
= random nonual deviate <strong>with</strong> 3 = O and s2(u) = 1<br />
= the variance <strong>of</strong> the residuals <strong>of</strong> T in the month t, in period <strong>of</strong><br />
record (12 values)<br />
441<br />
and d2,t = partial regression coefficients (for method <strong>of</strong> calculation<br />
see standard works, e.g. Ven Te Chow "Applied <strong>Hydrology</strong>", page 8:6û)<br />
For the first value <strong>of</strong> Tt,l, ill the following fonuula is used :<br />
Tt-1 = M t-1 + G u'<br />
where M and v are known and a single value for the random normal deviate u'<br />
is sufficient to define the value <strong>of</strong> Ttml.<br />
Once the coefficients <strong>of</strong> the generator model for mean monthly tem-<br />
perature are known for each month, a sequence can be generated which will be in<br />
phase, at the monthly level, <strong>with</strong> rainfall.<br />
3.3. Generation <strong>of</strong> monthly streamflows for stations having at<br />
least 10 years <strong>of</strong> record<br />
The poor degree <strong>of</strong> correlation found in the study area between<br />
monthly streamflows and monthly rainfall, due to the effect <strong>of</strong> snow and karsti-<br />
city <strong>of</strong> the basin, necessitated first a correlation <strong>of</strong> the annual streamflows<br />
(14 years <strong>of</strong> record) and the annual rainfall (the same station as used in para<br />
3.1. above). This was achieved through the following equation based on the<br />
hypothesis <strong>of</strong> a normal distribution <strong>of</strong> log Q :
log ~a = M +e( q- m> + K u<br />
M = the mean <strong>of</strong> the logarithm <strong>of</strong> the annual flow Qa (14 values <strong>of</strong> Qa)<br />
m =<br />
u = random normal deviate<br />
íeq.3)<br />
the mean <strong>of</strong> a (Pa = annual rainfall for the rainfall station 32 years)<br />
v = variance <strong>of</strong> the residuals <strong>of</strong> log Qa<br />
In order to adjust to the long series <strong>of</strong> rainfall (32 years)<br />
the following correction to M was prepared. This type <strong>of</strong> correction is o<strong>nl</strong>y<br />
necessary when records <strong>of</strong> the period <strong>of</strong> M are not typical <strong>of</strong> the period <strong>of</strong> m.<br />
In fact, since the rainfall record (32 years) is longer than<br />
the streamflow record (14 years) and the two are correlated, the estimate M<br />
<strong>of</strong> the population mean <strong>of</strong> log Q and the estimate v <strong>of</strong> the variance <strong>of</strong> the<br />
residuals can be improved, leadtng to revised estimates M;! and v2 as follows :<br />
2 2<br />
s2 (log Qa> = s1 (log Qa) - r<br />
2<br />
where the suffixes 1 and 2 refer to the 14 and 32 year records respectively.<br />
2<br />
The value <strong>of</strong> 62 (log Qa) so obtained can be used to derive an<br />
improved estimate v from the relation :<br />
a<br />
(eq. 3b)<br />
2 2<br />
v 2 = (1 r s2 (log Q,) (eq.3~)<br />
All the coefficients <strong>of</strong> equation 3 being known, a long series<br />
<strong>of</strong> logarithms <strong>of</strong> annual flow Q, can be generated and will be in phase <strong>with</strong><br />
the annual rainfall.<br />
The next step is the generation <strong>of</strong> the variate Zt,i = log Qt,i - log Qa (eq.4)<br />
(eq.4)
443<br />
where :<br />
- - Zt = mean <strong>of</strong> (log Q<br />
t,i log Q a<br />
for period <strong>of</strong> recorii (12 values, t = 1,2,... 12)<br />
r = correlation coefficient <strong>of</strong> Zt on ZtWl (12 values)<br />
t<br />
s(Zt> = standard deviation <strong>of</strong> Zt (12 values)<br />
n<br />
vt = variance <strong>of</strong> the residuals = - . 2 2<br />
s<br />
n-2<br />
2<br />
u = random normal deviate <strong>with</strong> u = O, s (u) = 1.<br />
-<br />
(2,) . (1 C. rt)<br />
The application <strong>of</strong> equation (4) then gives a generated series<br />
<strong>of</strong> Qtai following.the transformation<br />
-<br />
Qt,i - Qa e ('t,i'<br />
íeq.4a)<br />
for each month. The annual totals <strong>of</strong> these Qtai should be equal to the values<br />
<strong>of</strong> Qa generated <strong>with</strong> equation (3) but this will not usually be so, in<br />
which case the following correction must be made for the generated Q<br />
. tai<br />
(eq. 4b)<br />
where :<br />
E 'a<br />
QL,i - ' Qt,i<br />
Q'a<br />
I<br />
Qt,i<br />
Qa<br />
QIa<br />
= revised value <strong>of</strong> Qtai (monthly generated flows)<br />
= annual flows generated by eq. (3)<br />
= annual sum <strong>of</strong> monthly flows Q generated by eq. (4)<br />
t,i<br />
The result <strong>of</strong> these processes is a generated series <strong>of</strong> monthly<br />
streamflows which are in phase annually <strong>with</strong> rainfall which is in turn in<br />
phase monthly <strong>with</strong> the mean monthly temperatures.<br />
3.4. Generation <strong>of</strong> monthly streamflows for stations having less<br />
than 10 years <strong>of</strong> record<br />
For short series equations (3) and (4) cannot be used because<br />
a short series does not permit a sufficiently precise calculation, month by<br />
month, <strong>of</strong> the mean, variance and correlation coefficient. To avoid this diffi-<br />
culty the observed series <strong>of</strong> the monthly streamflow Qt i can be "deseasonalized"<br />
to produce a new series Y giving, in the case <strong>of</strong> 4 yeah <strong>of</strong> observations, 48<br />
values <strong>of</strong> Y. To "deseasonalize" one <strong>of</strong> two transforms was used :
444<br />
Y = log Q - a cos (-<br />
t,i<br />
12<br />
(eq.5)<br />
where (eq.5) : the origin was taken as the month <strong>of</strong> November (t = 1)<br />
the phase determined in such a way as to place the mean<br />
e = maximum flow in the required month, which also determines<br />
the month <strong>of</strong> minimum flow which will be six months later.<br />
a<br />
= the amplitude <strong>of</strong> the variate (the logarithm <strong>of</strong> the monthly<br />
flows) chosen in such a way as to give the best fit to<br />
the observed maximum and minimum monthly values.<br />
The choice <strong>of</strong> the transform depends on the shapc <strong>of</strong> the hydro-<br />
graph. In the Lebanon project equation (5) was found to give less good re-<br />
sults and therefore equation (6) was used.<br />
Each <strong>of</strong> these equations gives a series <strong>of</strong> Y which combines all<br />
months. From this series the mean (i) can be calculated and also the variance<br />
(
-<br />
X<br />
=I mean <strong>of</strong> X (during period <strong>of</strong> record)<br />
u = randa normal deviate<br />
v = variance <strong>of</strong> the residuals <strong>of</strong> Y<br />
44 5<br />
When all the coefficients <strong>of</strong> equation (7) are known and data have<br />
been generated for the "long" record station as described in para. 3.3, the model<br />
can be used to generate the long series <strong>of</strong> Yi and so, using the transforms in<br />
equations (5) and (6) above, long series <strong>of</strong> monthly streamflows Q<br />
t,i'<br />
The resulting values <strong>of</strong> Qt,+ are related to the monthly generated<br />
flows <strong>of</strong> a station having a long record which are themselves in phase annually<br />
<strong>with</strong> the annual rainfall. The annual rainfalls are the sum <strong>of</strong> the monthly rainfalls<br />
which themselves are in phase <strong>with</strong> the mean monthly temperatures.<br />
- 4 CONCLUSIONS<br />
4.1. The checks used on the generated time series are the sta-<br />
tistical moments (mean, variance and coefficient <strong>of</strong> variation) and periodicity<br />
(winter - summer). It was found that the generated time series were in general<br />
<strong>of</strong> good quality but that the value for the coefficient <strong>of</strong> variation (i.c. the<br />
variance) was too high. This did not matter in the Lebanon case because the<br />
reservoir simulation studies done <strong>with</strong> these time series kept us on the safe<br />
side, but for the sake <strong>of</strong> completeness some kind <strong>of</strong> correction should be intro-<br />
duced in future.<br />
4.2. All the programmes have been written in Fortran IV for the<br />
IñM 1130 computer in such a way that they can be used separately or in series.<br />
In this latter case the calculation time is about one hour per run. To obtain<br />
as output in one run the results <strong>of</strong> system simulation (reservoir size, irrigable<br />
area, failures and effects on other water users) the following input data are<br />
needed :<br />
(a) a historic record <strong>of</strong> rainfall (monthly)<br />
(b) a historic record <strong>of</strong> mean temperature (monthly)<br />
(c) a "long" (12-14 years in North Lebanon) historic record <strong>of</strong> streamflow<br />
(monthly<br />
(d)<br />
a "short" (3 to 5 years) historic record <strong>of</strong> streamflow (monthly)
446<br />
the duration <strong>of</strong> sunshine as a percentage p <strong>of</strong> the maximum possible<br />
the monthly crop coefficient K (by crop)<br />
the maximum usable soil moisture storage (by ero;)<br />
the coefficient <strong>of</strong> growth <strong>of</strong> the plant (by crop)<br />
the phasing <strong>of</strong> irrigation development <strong>of</strong> the whole area, and the<br />
subdivision <strong>of</strong> the area by crop (in %)<br />
the rate <strong>of</strong> changedver from the present olive groves to the new crops<br />
coefficient <strong>of</strong> irrigation efficiency<br />
geometric characteristics <strong>of</strong> the reservoir<br />
P (e) and (f) are necessary for the application <strong>of</strong> the Blaneydriddle formula.<br />
e
I II I<br />
Il<br />
m<br />
P 00<br />
I I m<br />
FLOW CHART FOR DATA GENERATION AND SYSTEM ANALYSIS<br />
I 1. II ..... i ace -. 3.7.4 or t a North Ltibonon irriqaion scheme<br />
1-1 i<br />
o' indirti. Bencator<br />
Jaouory 1972 lidopied from Prqe~i Droir~ng AE-2513
RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF DECISION VARIABLES<br />
IN FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS<br />
Wallis, J.R.<br />
IBM, Thomas J. Katson Research Center , Worktown Heights , N .Y, , USA<br />
ABSTRACT<br />
Matalas, N. C.<br />
U.S. Geological Survey, Washington, D. C., USA<br />
Monte Carlo simulations were used to assess flood and overde-<br />
sign losses that result from differing choices <strong>of</strong> assumed frequen-<br />
cy distribution, plotting position, criterion <strong>of</strong> best fit and<br />
length <strong>of</strong> record. Probabilities <strong>of</strong> best fit for an assumed world<br />
distribution, given a real world distribution, are given.<br />
RESUMEN<br />
El método de simulación de Monte Carlo se utiliza para eva-<br />
luar los daños producidos por máximas crecidas en funci’on de las<br />
leyes de distribución de frecuencias, de las estaciones utilizadas<br />
y de la calidad y extensión de las series hidrológicas. De la mues<br />
tra puede obtenerse el valor minimo teórico de los daños estimados.
450<br />
Introduction<br />
In many cases, the design <strong>of</strong> multipurpose water resource<br />
systems includes flood control as one <strong>of</strong> the purposes. While the<br />
design process may specify the sizing <strong>of</strong> flood control structures<br />
as a function <strong>of</strong> the T-year flood, the design process must cope<br />
<strong>with</strong> the uncertainty as to the magnitude <strong>of</strong> the T-year flood.<br />
Given that floods are a random phenomenon, the magnitude <strong>of</strong> the<br />
T-year flood depends upon the underlying probability distribution<br />
<strong>of</strong> flood events and the values <strong>of</strong> the distribution's parameters.<br />
Among the objectives <strong>of</strong> flood frequency analysis is that <strong>of</strong><br />
determining the magnitude <strong>of</strong> the T-year flood, referred to as the<br />
design flood. While the underlying distribution <strong>of</strong> floods is<br />
unknown, an estimate <strong>of</strong> the design flood can be provided. A dis-<br />
tribution may be assumed or chosen in accordance <strong>with</strong> some criter-<br />
ion <strong>of</strong> best fit to observed flood sequences. Given an observed<br />
flood sequence <strong>of</strong> length n, and an assumed or chosen distribution<br />
estimate <strong>of</strong> the distribution's parameter values, the design flood<br />
can be derived. These estimates are subject to sampling errors,<br />
the magnitudes <strong>of</strong> which depend upon n, and on uncertainties that<br />
are o<strong>nl</strong>y partially a function <strong>of</strong> n. To reduce sampling errors,<br />
longer flood sequences are needed. To acquire longer sequences<br />
through direct observation might necessitate the delays in the<br />
design <strong>of</strong> the water resource system. Delays would be economically<br />
feasible if over the period <strong>of</strong> data collection no benefits were<br />
foregone. In those cases where benefits would be foregone effec-<br />
tively longer sequences might be obtained through regional analyses.<br />
However, even <strong>with</strong> a very large but finite flood sequence,<br />
uncertainty would still exist in the estimate <strong>of</strong> the T-year flood.<br />
The Uncertainty arises because the assumed or chosen distribution<br />
used to estimate the T-year flood does not necessarily have to<br />
be the correct real world distribution, and in fact if a criter-<br />
ion <strong>of</strong> best fit is used, the chosen distribution might vary given<br />
another flood sequence <strong>of</strong> equal length.<br />
By using an estimate <strong>of</strong> the T-year flood as the design flood,<br />
either <strong>of</strong> two types <strong>of</strong> losses is likely to be incurred. The first<br />
type refers to overdesign costs <strong>of</strong> flood control structures which<br />
would be incurred if the estimated T-year flood exceeded the true<br />
value <strong>of</strong> the design flood. The second type refers to the down-<br />
stream damages which would be incurred from underdesign if the<br />
true value <strong>of</strong> the design flood exceeded the estimate <strong>of</strong> the T-year<br />
flood. In the design process, what is <strong>of</strong> concern is not how well<br />
.a particular distribution fits an observed flood sequence par se,<br />
but to what extent the two types <strong>of</strong> design losses are affected by<br />
the choice <strong>of</strong> a particular distribution. To the designer, the
451<br />
criterion <strong>of</strong> best fit refers to choosing a distribution to minimize<br />
design losses.<br />
To gain some insight as to the magnitudes and sensitivities<br />
<strong>of</strong> the design losses to uncertaintfes in the choice <strong>of</strong> a flood<br />
frequency distribution and estimates <strong>of</strong> the distribution's param-<br />
eter values, several computer-based experiments, employing Monte<br />
Carlo techniques, are currently being performed. In this paper<br />
the nature <strong>of</strong> these experiments is briefly discussed, and some<br />
experimental results as to the probabilities <strong>of</strong> fitting <strong>of</strong><br />
observed flood sequences <strong>with</strong> particular distributions are<br />
presented.<br />
Monte Carlo Experiments<br />
Two sets <strong>of</strong> distribution functions are considered. The first<br />
set, referred to as the real world set, consists <strong>of</strong> several dis-<br />
tributions, any one <strong>of</strong> which may be the underlying distribution<br />
<strong>of</strong> floods. From the real world set, a distribution function is<br />
chosen where the distribution's parameters values are related to<br />
the mean, u, the standard deviation, o, and the coefficient <strong>of</strong><br />
skewness, y. For this distribution, 18,000 flood sequences <strong>of</strong><br />
length n are generated.<br />
The second set <strong>of</strong> distribution functions, referred to as the<br />
imagined or assumed set, contains several distributions, any one<br />
<strong>of</strong> which may be fitted to observed flood sequences. Each element<br />
<strong>of</strong> the imagined set is fitted to each <strong>of</strong> the generated sequences,<br />
and on the basis <strong>of</strong> various methods for defining plotting positions<br />
and measuring goodness <strong>of</strong> fit, the particular distribution <strong>of</strong> best<br />
fit is determined for each generated sequence. From each <strong>of</strong> these<br />
distributions, the flood having an exceedance probability <strong>of</strong> 1/T<br />
is determined. These floods are estimates <strong>of</strong> the real world flood<br />
<strong>of</strong> exceedance probability 1/T.<br />
Initially, overdesign and underdesign linear loss functions<br />
in terms <strong>of</strong> the difference between the real world T-year flood<br />
and its estimate are assumed. No<strong>nl</strong>inear loss functions will be<br />
considered in subsequent experiments. Given the 18,000 values <strong>of</strong><br />
the differences between the real world T-year flood and its<br />
estimates, the probabilities <strong>of</strong> incurring overdesign and under-<br />
design losses and the expected values <strong>of</strong> the losses are estimated.<br />
Similarly, these values are estimated for each <strong>of</strong> the other dis-<br />
tributions belonging to the real world set.<br />
Three flood control design objectives are considered:<br />
1) minimizing the expected overdesign losses, 2) minimizing the<br />
expected underdesign losses, and 3) minimizing a weighted sum<br />
<strong>of</strong> the expected overdesign and expected underdesign losses. For
452<br />
the third objective, the weights, say CI and ß, where a > O, ß > O,<br />
and o: + ß = 1, are varied. Among the methods for defìning plotting<br />
positions and measuring goodness <strong>of</strong> fit, the particular method and<br />
measure by which the various design objectives are met were deter-<br />
mined. The sensitivities <strong>of</strong> the design losses to less than optimal<br />
choices <strong>of</strong> the plotting position method and measure <strong>of</strong> goodness<br />
<strong>of</strong> fit were assessed.<br />
The experiments were carrìèd out for every feasible point in<br />
the following experimental hyperspace:<br />
p = 2600<br />
u = $00<br />
y = O, 1/4, 1/2;*, 1, 1 . 1 4 K 2<br />
n = 10, 30, 50, 70, 90<br />
The results <strong>of</strong> these experiments are conditional on the distribu-<br />
tions belonging to the real world set. Subsequent experiments<br />
will consider prior information on the real world distribution<br />
function and regional estimates <strong>of</strong> the distribution's parameter<br />
values.<br />
Probabilities <strong>of</strong> Best Fit:<br />
Some preliminary results <strong>of</strong> these experiments are presented<br />
namely, the probabilities <strong>of</strong> best fit. Both the real world and<br />
imagined world sets consisted <strong>of</strong> three elements -- the normal<br />
distribution, the log-normal dìstribution, and the Type I extremai<br />
(Gumbel) distribution. For each distribution belonging- to the real<br />
woerfd sat) i8000 sequences were generated f o each ~ feasible<br />
point in the experimental hyperspace. Floods for each sequence<br />
<strong>of</strong> length n were ranked in order <strong>of</strong> magnitude from the largest,<br />
having rank m = 1, to smallest, having rank m = n. The flood <strong>of</strong><br />
rank m was assigned an exceedance probability, P[m,<strong>nl</strong> , by both<br />
the "Weibul method," defined as<br />
and by the "Hazen method," defined as<br />
(See Chow: 1964).<br />
P [m,<strong>nl</strong> = m/(n+l) (1)<br />
W<br />
P,[m,<strong>nl</strong> = (2m-i) / 2n (2)<br />
For a given element <strong>of</strong> the real world set and a given element<br />
<strong>of</strong> the imagined world set, two sets <strong>of</strong> differences <strong>of</strong> flood magni-<br />
tudes were formed for each generated sequence. The first set con-<br />
sisted <strong>of</strong> the differences between the observed, that is generated,
453<br />
floods and the corresponding imagined world floods having exceed-<br />
ance probabilities defined by Pw(m,nJ. Similarly, the second set<br />
<strong>of</strong> differences was based on exceedance probabilities defined by<br />
PH (m,n).<br />
Two measures <strong>of</strong> goodness <strong>of</strong> fit were considered -- the sum <strong>of</strong><br />
squares <strong>of</strong> the differences in flood magnitudes and the sum o€ the<br />
absolute differences in flood magnitudes. For each sequence based<br />
on an element <strong>of</strong> the real world set and relative to each method <strong>of</strong><br />
assigning exceedance probabilities, the element <strong>of</strong> the imagined<br />
set which provided the best fit to the sequence <strong>of</strong> floods was<br />
determined, where best fit was defined by each <strong>of</strong> two criteria --<br />
minimum sum <strong>of</strong> squares <strong>of</strong> differences in flood magnitudes and<br />
minimum sum <strong>of</strong> absolute differences in flood magnitudes.<br />
The probability <strong>of</strong> the event that a sequence, having a par-<br />
ticular element <strong>of</strong> the real world set as its underlying distribu-<br />
tion, is best fitted by a particular element <strong>of</strong> imagined world<br />
set, relative to a particular method <strong>of</strong> assigning exceedance<br />
probabilities and a particular criterion <strong>of</strong> best fit, was esti-<br />
mated by N/18,000, where N denotes the number <strong>of</strong> times the event<br />
occurred and 18,000, the total number <strong>of</strong> times the event could<br />
have occurred. The probabilities for each <strong>of</strong> the 36 points in<br />
the event space relative to each feasible point in the experi-<br />
mental hyperspace were determined.<br />
Remarks<br />
For the experimental hyperspace, the estimates <strong>of</strong> the probabil-<br />
ities <strong>of</strong> best fit multiplied by 1000 over the event space are given<br />
in Lahles 1 through 9, where MSS denotes minimum sum <strong>of</strong> squares,<br />
MSAD denotes minimum sum <strong>of</strong> absolute differences, N denotes the<br />
normal distribution, G denotes the GuInbel distribution, and L denotes<br />
the log-normal distribution. These estimates were based on the follow-<br />
ing additional experimental operating rule -- if the computed value<br />
<strong>of</strong> the coefficient <strong>of</strong> skewness, y, for a generated sequence was equal<br />
to or less than 0.007, then the sequence was considered to have been<br />
drawn from a normal distribution. While these probabilities give<br />
some indication as to the power for identifying the real world flood<br />
distribution from an observed sequence, they do not give any indica-<br />
tion <strong>of</strong> the optimum strategy to use for choosing a design distribu-<br />
tion. Interpretation <strong>of</strong> these experimental results in terms <strong>of</strong><br />
overdesign-underdesign strategies will be the subject <strong>of</strong> subsequent<br />
papers.<br />
Reference<br />
Chow, Ven T. (1964). Handbook <strong>of</strong> Applied <strong>Hydrology</strong>, McGraw-Hill.
454<br />
Table 1. -- Real World is normal<br />
Weibull Hazen<br />
MSS MSAD MSS MSAD<br />
n N L G N L G N L G N L G<br />
~~ ~~<br />
10 527 468 5 602 314 84 523 289 188 556 234 211<br />
30 531 432 36 608 341 51 530 432 38 579 364 58<br />
50 528 455 17 614 360 26 526 465 9 489 387 24<br />
70 526 468 6 613 377 io 526 473 2 595 397 8<br />
90 532 466 2 620 374 5 529 470 1 603 394 4<br />
Table 2. -- Real World is Gumbel <strong>with</strong> skew = 1.14<br />
Weibuil Hazen<br />
MSS MSAD MSS MSAD<br />
n N L G N L G N L G N L G<br />
10 216 766 i8 287 523 190 212 416 371 245 358 398<br />
30 40 646 314 78 624 299 40 658 303 57 590 352<br />
50 7 612 380 27 642 331 8 717 275 19 629 352<br />
70 2 596 402 10 625 364 2 756 242 7 641 352<br />
90 0 591 409 6 622 372 O 767 233 3 635 361<br />
Table 3 . -- Real World is log-normal <strong>with</strong> skew = i/4<br />
Weibull Hazen<br />
MSS MSAD MSS MSAD<br />
n N L G N L G N L G N L G<br />
10 441 551 8 521 370 109 436 323 241 474 261 265<br />
30 342 573 85 433 469 99 341 570 89 395 481 124<br />
50 279 659 62 382 550 68 279 683 38 347 583 70<br />
70 234 727 38 339 621 41 232 750 18 313 649 $8<br />
90 205 771 24 313 661 26 204 788 8 290 688 23
Table 4. -- Real World is log-normal <strong>with</strong> skew = 112<br />
Weibull Hazen<br />
MSS MSAD MSS MSAD<br />
n N L G N L G N L G N L G<br />
455<br />
10 359 630 11 442 421 i37 356 352 292 393 290 317<br />
30 197 643 161 281 554 165 196 641 163 240 556 204<br />
50 116 721 i63 202 655 143 116 780 i04 169 678 153<br />
70 71 789 i40 147 735 117 70 859 71 124 758 118<br />
90 46 837 i17 118 789 93 46 901 53 97 812 91<br />
Table 5. -- Real World is log-normal <strong>with</strong> skew = v1/2<br />
Weibull Hazen<br />
MSS MSAD MSS MSAD<br />
n N L G N L G N L G N L G<br />
10 302 684 i4 382 461 157 298 375 327 333 315 353<br />
30 i14 662 224 i86 597 218 i14 662 224 i50 582 268<br />
50 48 688 264 106 672 222 48 775 177 83 677 241<br />
70 22 712 266 64 719 217 21 832 i47 49 731 221<br />
90 11 737 253 43 756 201 11 865 125 32 765 203<br />
Table 6. -- Real World is log-normal <strong>with</strong> skew = 1<br />
Weibull Hazen<br />
MSS MSAD MSS MSAD<br />
n N L G N L G N L G N L G<br />
10 235 750 i5 309 508 183 231 406 362 260 350 390<br />
30 50 658 292 96 631 273 51 663 286 72 594 334<br />
50 13 625 363 39 649 312 13 736 251 27 640 333<br />
70 5 607 388 20 651 330 4 767 229 i4 653 334<br />
90 1 592 406 io 657 333 1 787 212 6 667 327
n<br />
Table 7 .-- Real World is log-normal <strong>with</strong> skew = 1.14<br />
Weibull Hazen<br />
MSS MSAD MSS MSAD<br />
N L G N L G N L G N L G<br />
10 209 775 17 281 528 192 205 418 376 234 364 403<br />
30 34 651 314 70 638 292 34 660 306 52 594 354<br />
50 7 606 386 24 638 338 7 721 272 i7 633 351<br />
70 2 586 412 9 635 356 2 755 243 6 641 353<br />
90 O 582 418 4 632 364 0 777 223 3 647 351<br />
n<br />
Table 8. -- Real World is log-normal <strong>with</strong> skew =<br />
Weibull Hazen<br />
MSS MSAD MSS MSAD<br />
N L G N L G N L G N L G<br />
10 169 814 16 231 565 204 166 438 396 193 387 421<br />
30 17 655 328 38 658 304 16 667 317 27 615 358<br />
50 2 620 378 11 657 332 2 727 271 6 648 346<br />
70 0 618 381 3 658 339 O 772 228 2 671 327<br />
90 O 629 371 1 664 335 o 804 196 1 685 314<br />
Table 9. -- Red World is log-normal <strong>with</strong> skew = 2<br />
Weibull Hazen<br />
MSS MSAD MSS MSAD<br />
n N L G N L G N L G N L G<br />
10 113 865 21 163 614 223 112 473 415 135 427 438<br />
30 4 696 300 11 710 279 4 710 286 8 679 313<br />
50 0 723 277 1 751 247 O 798 202 1 754 245<br />
70 O 770 230 0 795 205 0 860 i40 O 807 193<br />
90 o 810 190 O 826 174 O 903 97 0 842 158
AB STRA CT<br />
SHOT NOISE MODELS FOR SYNTHETIC GENERATION<br />
OF MULTISITE DAILY STREAMFLOK DATA<br />
bY<br />
G, WEISS<br />
Department <strong>of</strong> Mathematics Imperi'al College<br />
University <strong>of</strong> London<br />
While multisite models for generating synthetic streamflow da-<br />
ta on a monthly basis have been successfully used, adequate daily<br />
models are lacking, In particular, existing models based on Gau-<br />
ssian processes are unsuitable in reproducing the recessions which<br />
are clearly observable in daily data. The models currently being de<br />
veloped at Imperial College, London, under contract for the <strong>Water</strong><br />
<strong>Resources</strong> Board, England, are based on "Shot Noise" or filtered Poi<br />
sson processes. These processes consist <strong>of</strong> a series <strong>of</strong> Poisson<br />
events, each <strong>of</strong> which generates a pulse <strong>of</strong> random height and some<br />
fixed recession shape, In the simplest <strong>of</strong> these models the pulses<br />
consist <strong>of</strong> jumps which are exponentially distributed in magnitude,<br />
and which decay exponentially <strong>with</strong> a fixed decay rate. This is a<br />
continuous time first order autoregressive (Markovian) process, and<br />
its instantaneous values have a Gamma distribution. This model can<br />
be fitted to streamflow data so as to preserve the observed means,<br />
standard deviations, serial and cross correlations <strong>of</strong> daily data.<br />
Using a more complicated model consisting <strong>of</strong> two shot noise proce-<br />
sses, monthly statistics can be preserved in addition to the daily<br />
statistics. This model gave satisfactory results <strong>with</strong> data from SO-<br />
me East Anglia sites,<br />
-- RESUME<br />
Alors qu'on a réussi a construire des modgles capables de €OU:<br />
nir artific2ellement des sérri'es ae dé:its moyens mensuels en plusieurs<br />
sites, :n manque encore de modeles satisfaisants pour les.va<br />
leurs journalieres. I1 faut souligner en particulier que les modeles<br />
stochastiques actuels, basés sur des processus gaussiens, ne sont<br />
pas capables de reproduire les décrues qui sont faciles 2 mettre en<br />
évidence dans les relev6s.journaliers. Les modèles qu'on est en<br />
train de mettre au point a l'Imperia1 College (Londres), pour le<br />
compte du <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Board (Angleterre) sont basés sur le<br />
"shot noise" ou processys de Poisson filtr'es. Ces processus se composent<br />
d'une série d'évenements obéissant a une loi de Poisson, dont<br />
chacun produit une impulsion d'amplitude aléatoire dêcroissant suivant<br />
une forme déterminée. Dans les plus simples de ces modèles,<br />
les impulsions consistente en des sauts dont les amplitudes aléatoA<br />
res sont distribuées de facon exponentielle et sont affectées, une<br />
fois produites, d'une décroissa?ce exponentielle dans le temps, la<br />
constante de temps étant fixée a l'avance. Ceci constitue un proce5<br />
sus (Markovien) autorégressif de premier ordre continu dans le temps,<br />
dont les valeurs insta2tannées sont distribuées suivant une loi<br />
Gamma. Le modèle peut etre ajusté aux données disponibles concernant<br />
l'écoulement de facon a respecter les moyennes, les écarts-types et<br />
les corrélations croisées des débits journaliers. En utilisant un<br />
modèle plus compliqué, formé de deux processus ltshot noi~e'~, il est<br />
possible2 en plus des caractéristiques statistiques des valeurs<br />
journalieres , de conserver celles des valeurs mensuelles. Ce-modèle<br />
a donné des résultats satisfaisants pour un ensemble de rivieres<br />
dans l'Est de l'Angleterre.
Introduction<br />
The present work is aimed at supplying multisite daily synthetic stream-<br />
flow data for the British <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Board. The <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Board<br />
is currently developing regional simulation programs to help in the planning<br />
and operation <strong>of</strong> water supply, and sensitivity tests have shown that at the<br />
level <strong>of</strong> detail used in these programs, monthly data are insufficient and<br />
daily data are indeed required.<br />
Generation <strong>of</strong> synthetic monthly data in <strong>Hydrology</strong> was apparently first<br />
attempted in the Harvard <strong>Water</strong> Program [I], and has been developed as a useful<br />
tool since ([2], [ 3J,[ 41). Basically, in the methods previously used, the<br />
data or a transformed series obtained from the data are assumed to follow a<br />
multivariate Gaussian 1st order autoregressive process. Some sophisticated<br />
transformations and some higher order regression models have also been used<br />
([5], [6])*<br />
Autoregressive models based on the Gaussian distribution have also been<br />
applied to daily data [7J, [SJ. Such models, however, are inadequate in the<br />
following sense : one <strong>of</strong> the prominent features <strong>of</strong> daily streamflows is the<br />
presence <strong>of</strong> peaks and recessions clearly observed in the data. Yet no model<br />
based on the Gaussian distribution can reproduce these recessions, no matter<br />
what transformation or what order <strong>of</strong> autoregression is used.<br />
In this paper a class <strong>of</strong> models which reproduce recessions is introduced.<br />
A simple model from this class, <strong>of</strong> the same degree <strong>of</strong> complexity as the<br />
Gaussian 1st order autoregressive process is developed, and its implementation<br />
for data generation described. The theoretical aspects <strong>of</strong> reproducing recessions<br />
are discussed. Finally, the application <strong>of</strong> the model to some British<br />
streamflows is illustrated.<br />
Filtered Poisson Processes<br />
Let N(t) be a P&isson process, let Y be a random variable, and let<br />
w(t,y) be some function. Let the sequence ..., 7-1, TO, 71, .O be the times<br />
<strong>of</strong> events <strong>of</strong> the process N(t), and let ..., y-1, yo, YI, ... be mutually<br />
independent random values having the same distribution as Y, and all <strong>of</strong> which<br />
are independefit <strong>of</strong> N(t). A filtered Poipson process X(t) is defined by :<br />
For further details <strong>of</strong> these processes refer to CS].<br />
A physical interpretation in hydrological terms can be given to the<br />
filtered Poisson process. The events at random times T ~, given by the Poisson<br />
process can be thought <strong>of</strong> as beginnings <strong>of</strong> rain storms. The random value ym<br />
associated <strong>with</strong> T; could correspond to the amount <strong>of</strong> water in the rainstorm.<br />
Finally, T and y , will produce a response in the flow given by w(t-.cm,ym)<br />
and thus w?t,y) represents the system transfer function.
459<br />
The foregoing interpretation is o<strong>nl</strong>y approximate, since rainstorms are<br />
not independent as the Ym'S are required to be in the definition. One can<br />
however imagine that an independent series <strong>of</strong> climatic events exists initially,<br />
and that w(t,y) is the transfer function which transforms such climatic events<br />
into streamflow.<br />
The Shot Noise Process<br />
A particular linear filtered Poisson process was adopted for modelling<br />
streamflow, which is referred to as the shot noise process. In a filtered<br />
Poisson process, let N(t) be a Poisson process <strong>with</strong> rate 3 . Let Y be a<br />
random variable <strong>with</strong> an exponential distribution and <strong>with</strong> mean 8, and let<br />
w(t,y) = ye-bt, for t > O. The shot noise process is defined as :<br />
The process has three parameters : 9 - the event rate, 8 - the average<br />
jump height, and b - the decay rate. !he process has the following properties<br />
(found by applying theorems in [9J) :<br />
X(t) has a Gamma (Pearson type 2) distribution <strong>with</strong> parameters (Q, q/b),<br />
and thus X(t) is nonnegative and positively skewed, and has probability density<br />
function :<br />
The moments <strong>of</strong> X(t) are given by :<br />
From eq. (2) the process at time t+s, X<br />
(s > o)<br />
t+s), can be written as :<br />
The two terms in (5) are independent. The first represents the effect<br />
<strong>of</strong> events previous to t, and is equal to e-bs X(t). The second includes the<br />
events in (t, C+s) and is the innovation term.<br />
~~(t+s) one has<br />
Denoting the innovation by
460<br />
Thus, the shot noise process is in fact a 1st order autoregressive process<br />
in continuous time. However, it differs from the Gaussian 1st order autoregressive<br />
process in that ES(t+s), instead <strong>of</strong> being Gaussian, has a skewed distribution<br />
<strong>with</strong> a positive probability <strong>of</strong> being exactly zero. This arises when<br />
no events occur in (t, t+s).<br />
Some Aspects <strong>of</strong> Modelling Recessions<br />
When modelling a stochastic process in hydrology one <strong>of</strong>ten makes the in-<br />
exact but not unrealistic assumption <strong>of</strong> a linear system. This amounts to<br />
assuming that the process X(t) is <strong>of</strong> the form :<br />
where dY(t) is a completely uncorrelated and independent process, which<br />
describes all the randomness in X(t), and h(t) is the system transfer function.<br />
A usual choice for dY(t) is a Gaussian white noise. The characteristic<br />
feature <strong>of</strong> the shot noise process is that dY(t) is chosen as zero almost every-<br />
where, except for a series <strong>of</strong> spikes. These spikes occur at random time<br />
instants determined by a Poisson process and each spike has some random mass.<br />
(Note that in eqns. (1) and (2) summation over the spikes replaces the integral<br />
in (7)).<br />
The choice <strong>of</strong> the transfer function h(t) determines the autocorrelation<br />
<strong>of</strong> X(t). In particular h(t) = e-bt gives a 1st order autoregressive process,<br />
and corresponds to a single linear reservoir. In addition h(t) must determine<br />
the shape <strong>of</strong> recessions in X(t).<br />
However, if dY(t) is chosen as Gaussian white noise, no recessions will<br />
appear in X(t). The absence <strong>of</strong> recessions may be explained intuitively by the<br />
fact that Gaussian white noise is changing by minute quantities very quickly ;<br />
hence the recession shape <strong>of</strong> h(t) appears in minute form and is immediately<br />
swamped by the next change in dY (t) . Thus linear Guassian processes cannot<br />
reproduce recessions, irrespective <strong>of</strong> the form <strong>of</strong> h(t), and the same will be<br />
true even if a non-linear transformation is used pointwise on X(t).<br />
The ability <strong>of</strong> the shot noise process to reproduce recessions prompted<br />
its use in the model1ing;<strong>of</strong> daily streamflows.<br />
Averaged Sampling <strong>of</strong> the Shot Noise Process<br />
Natural streamflow and the stochastic shot noise process are continuous<br />
time processes. Recorded daily streamflows and the synthetic data to be<br />
produced are on the other hand discrete time processes. The usual approach<br />
in the modelling <strong>of</strong> monthly data is to consider the data as a discrete sample<br />
<strong>of</strong> the process, i.e. the values <strong>of</strong> the continuous process at discrete time<br />
points. However, discrete sampling is inaccurate, since the data are actually<br />
obtained by averaging the flows over the period between the discrete sampling
time points.<br />
461<br />
The difference between the two approaches, <strong>of</strong> discrete sampling<br />
or <strong>of</strong> average sampling, is negligible for serial correlations <strong>of</strong> up to P = 0.5<br />
which are typical for monthly data.<br />
which is typical for daily data.<br />
It is however substantial for e= 0-8<br />
It is assumed here that streamflow follows a continuous time shot noise<br />
process X(t), and that the observed data (and the generated data), are averages<br />
<strong>of</strong> this process over a period <strong>of</strong> T = 1 day. The data X,, X2, ... are thus<br />
defined as :<br />
The moments <strong>of</strong> X. are slightly different from those <strong>of</strong> X(t), and are given<br />
by : J<br />
SQ<br />
E(X.1 =<br />
J<br />
Var (x.) = - 9 Q2 2 [b-(l-e-b))<br />
3 b (9)<br />
b2<br />
(s 1)<br />
In addition, the averaging changes the shape <strong>of</strong> the recessions. Whereas<br />
in the process X(t) recessions start from a vertical rising limb, for the<br />
averaged values X the transfer function is <strong>of</strong> the shape,<br />
j<br />
1 -bt)<br />
f; (1-e<br />
that is the rise is gradual over O \< t < 1.<br />
Fitting the Shot Noise Model to Daily Streamflow<br />
(o < t < 1)<br />
In fitting the shot noise model an approach similar to that employed by<br />
Matalas [3J is used. Values <strong>of</strong> 9 , 8, b are calculated which preserve the<br />
values <strong>of</strong> 1.1, o2 and p(l) obsezved in the data. Thus the sample mean, variance<br />
and first serial correlation, p, 82 and g(1) are calculated from the hietorica:<br />
data. These are substituted in equations (9), which are solved for 4,<br />
8, b. The estimated decay rate 6 is solved for from the thigd equation by<br />
numerical methods, and the other two equations yield 8 and 9.<br />
An alternative approach would be to estimate b directly from observed<br />
recessions or from the unit hydrograph <strong>of</strong> the basin, and to estimate 3 by
46 2<br />
observing times <strong>of</strong> peaks in the data. This latter approach was attempted for<br />
the British streamflow data at our disposal. However, preservation <strong>of</strong> observed<br />
p, o2 and (1) using this method did not ensue. A similar approach may<br />
however prove useful for different data, for instance, streams in semi-arid<br />
regions, where data may consist <strong>of</strong> short records <strong>of</strong> frequent observations.<br />
Synthetic Generation <strong>of</strong> Shot Noise Data<br />
Let 3, 8, b be the parameters estimated from historical data. The algo-<br />
rithm for generating synthetic data is as follows :<br />
Denoting by Xt, t = 1, 2, ..., the averaged shot noise to be generated,<br />
and by X(t), t = O, 1, 2, ..., the values <strong>of</strong> the continuous process, one<br />
obtains from (5) and (IO) :<br />
where the first term in eqns. 11 and 12 is the contribution from events<br />
preceding t , and the second is the contribution <strong>of</strong> events in (t, t+l).<br />
Starting <strong>with</strong> an initial value for X(O), XI and X(1) are generated.<br />
X(1) is then used to generate X and X(2) and so on. Assuming XI, ..., Xt<br />
and X(t) have been generated, tge following steps lead to Xt+l, X(t+l).<br />
1) The first terms <strong>of</strong> (11,121 are calculated, from X(t). X(t) can then be<br />
discarded.<br />
2) Time <strong>of</strong> last event preceding (t,t+l) need not be remembered.<br />
are initiated by putting m = O, .cm = O.<br />
Event times<br />
3) The next event .cm+l is generated as zm+l = T~+I, where I is a random<br />
number generated from an exponential distribution <strong>with</strong> mean (1/3 1.<br />
4) If T ~ > + 1 ~ all events in (t,t+l) have been exhausted and so generation<br />
<strong>of</strong> Xt+l and X(t+l) is complete.<br />
5) For T ~+I < 1, ya+-, is generated as a random number from an exponential<br />
distribution <strong>with</strong> mean 8.<br />
6) The contribution <strong>of</strong> y to (11, 12) is calculated as :<br />
m+ 1<br />
1 (l-e-b(l-Tm+l 1 ) and e -b(l-.cm+l), and added to the values<br />
;<br />
<strong>of</strong> Xt+l and X(t+l) respectively.<br />
7) m is set to m+l and steps 3 to 7 are repeated.<br />
Thus the generation requires o<strong>nl</strong>y random numbers from exponential distri-<br />
butions, which are easy to create.
Multisite Shot Noise Processes<br />
463<br />
The shot noise process already defined can be easily extended to a<br />
multisite process. Let Xl(t), ..., XM(t), be continuous shot noise processes<br />
at M sites, <strong>with</strong> parameters Sk, Qk, bk, k = 1, ..., M.<br />
A multisite process incorporating all <strong>of</strong> the parameters will be defined<br />
by assuming that some <strong>of</strong> the events occur simultaneously at several sites,<br />
and give rise to correlated jumps yk at these sites.<br />
For two <strong>of</strong> the sites, k and 1, let the events which occur simultaneously<br />
be at rate Jkl(<strong>with</strong> 3k1 < 3 k, 3 kl < 3 i), and let the jumps associated<br />
<strong>with</strong> a simultaneous event, y , yl, have a correlation coefficient ckl. Then<br />
the correlation between \(ty and X,(t) is :<br />
c + I<br />
kl<br />
.& . 2<br />
In this expression the first term shows the effect <strong>of</strong> the different decay<br />
rates on the cross correlation, (i.e. the effect <strong>of</strong> the two different recession<br />
shapes), and the other two terms arise from the correlation between the two<br />
series <strong>of</strong> events and jumps.<br />
By (13) Ski and Ckl can be chosen for each pair k,l, to preserve the<br />
observed cross correlation in the multisite data.<br />
The Double Shot Noise Process<br />
Some difficulties arose in fitting the shot noise process to average<br />
daily flows from some English streams. While the model did preserve the mean,<br />
standard deviation and lag one serial correlation coefficient <strong>of</strong> the daily<br />
data, when the synthetic data was averaged over months, the synthetic monthly<br />
data had much smaller standard deviations and lag one serial correlation<br />
coefficients than those observed in the historic data. Moreover, in the synthetic<br />
data the recessions decayed too fast towards zero, and too many rises<br />
and recessions were generated.<br />
Inspection <strong>of</strong> the historic daily ctreamflow hydrographs showed that the<br />
streams modelled have a pronounced base flow component which is not reproduced<br />
by the shot noise process.<br />
Therefore a more sophisticated model was proposed, which assumes X(t)<br />
to be the sum <strong>of</strong> two independent shot noise processes, Xq(t) <strong>with</strong> parameters<br />
+A, QI, bl and X2(t) <strong>with</strong> parameters $2, 82 and b2 (cf equation 2). In<br />
these two process $1, QI, bl are assumed to be larger than $2, 82, b2, so<br />
that Xl(t) has more recessions, higher jumps and a faster decay rate than<br />
X2(t). In physical terms, Xl(t) may be thought <strong>of</strong> as representing a surface<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f mechanism and X2(t) as representing a baseflow mechanism.
464<br />
In fitting the model, the six parameters can be calculated so as to<br />
preserve the observed mean, standard deviation and lag one serial correlation<br />
<strong>of</strong> the observed daily flows, and the standard deviation and lag one serial<br />
correlation <strong>of</strong> the observed averaged monthly flows.<br />
An Application <strong>of</strong> the Double Shot Noise Model<br />
Data from the river Nene in East Anglia and some <strong>of</strong> its tributaries, and<br />
<strong>of</strong> one tributary <strong>of</strong> the neighbouring Great Ouse was used to generate synthetic<br />
data. The Nene flows through East Anglia, and discharges into the Wash. It<br />
has a drainage area <strong>of</strong> 1630 km2, it receives an average annual rainfall <strong>of</strong><br />
623 mm, and has an annual run<strong>of</strong>f <strong>of</strong> 157 mm.<br />
The historic data consists <strong>of</strong> 11 years <strong>of</strong> average daily streamflows<br />
concurrent at 8 sites. !Che double shot noise model was fitted to the data so<br />
as to preserve at each site the overall mean, the standard deviation <strong>of</strong> the<br />
daily and <strong>of</strong> the monthly series, and the lag one serial correlation coefficient<br />
<strong>of</strong> the daily and the monthly series, and so as to preserve the daily cross<br />
correlations between the sites. Seasonality was accounted for through estima-<br />
ting the parameters separately for each calendar month.<br />
Twelve series <strong>of</strong> synthetic data, each <strong>of</strong> them equal in length to the<br />
historic record, were generated. Table 1 summarises some <strong>of</strong> the results from<br />
the historic and generated data. The table includes quantities calculated for<br />
the River Nene at Orton, close to the outflow point, and for the calendar month<br />
<strong>of</strong> January. Flows are listed in m3/s.<br />
The table gives a comparison between properties <strong>of</strong> the historic data,<br />
properties <strong>of</strong> the theoretical model calculated analytically, and properties<br />
<strong>of</strong> the synthetic data. Column 1 refers to the historic data. Columns 2-4<br />
refer to the theoretical model. Column 2 contains quantities calculated for<br />
the double shot noise model, and the decomposition <strong>of</strong> these quantities into<br />
the process modelling the surface run<strong>of</strong>f mechanism (fast process) and the<br />
process modelling the baseflow mechanism (slow process) are given in columns<br />
4 and 3 respectively. Columns 5-7 refer to the synthetic data. Column 5<br />
contains values which are averages <strong>of</strong> all the twelve synthetic series while<br />
columns 6 and 7 list the lowest and highest values obtained for each quantity<br />
out <strong>of</strong> the twelve series.<br />
The different rows <strong>of</strong> the table list the values <strong>of</strong> several quantities<br />
<strong>of</strong> interest. The quantities which are starred, are those used in fitting<br />
the model. For some <strong>of</strong> those quantities the model preserves the historical<br />
value exactly, while others were o<strong>nl</strong>y preserved approximately, due to numerical<br />
difficulties. e12 is the cross correlation between Nene at Orton and Great<br />
Ouse at Thornborough Mill.<br />
The rest <strong>of</strong> the quantities listed were not used in fitting the model,<br />
and success in preserving them can serve as a measure <strong>of</strong> the adequacy <strong>of</strong> the<br />
model. Of these quantities which were not fitted, the lag two and lag three<br />
daily serial correlation coefficients are extremely well preserved. On the<br />
other hand the skewness <strong>of</strong> the data was overestimated by the model. It is<br />
very encouraging that the model seems to yield reasonable values <strong>of</strong> high and<br />
low flows.
465<br />
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466<br />
Conclusions<br />
The shot noise model has been developed as a physically more realistic<br />
model <strong>of</strong> daily streamflow data than has heret<strong>of</strong>ore been proposed, and in<br />
particular models recession effects which are a prominent feature <strong>of</strong> daily<br />
streamflow data.<br />
In its basic form, the shot noise process in its conception, statistical<br />
properties and <strong>with</strong> the associated method <strong>of</strong> fitting and method <strong>of</strong> data gener-<br />
ation is as simple and easy to handle as the Gaussian 1st order autoregressive<br />
model.<br />
The use <strong>of</strong> the double shot noise model for some English streans gave<br />
satisfactory results, and illustrates the adaptibility <strong>of</strong> this class <strong>of</strong> models.<br />
It is felt that these mdels, <strong>with</strong> their emphasis on events and recessions,<br />
could <strong>with</strong> further research provide a link between deterministic and stochastic<br />
hydrology. Thus studies by deterministic methods <strong>of</strong> the instantaneous unit<br />
hydrograph and <strong>of</strong> the mechanism <strong>of</strong> base flow etc. could provide some <strong>of</strong> the<br />
parameters needed for a stochastic model based on shot noise processes.<br />
Acknowledgements<br />
This work is financed by the <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Board <strong>of</strong> England and Wales,<br />
and is being carried out at Imperial College <strong>of</strong> Science and Technology in<br />
London under the supervision <strong>of</strong> Pr<strong>of</strong>essor D.R. Cox <strong>of</strong> the Department <strong>of</strong><br />
Mathematics and Mr. T. OIDonnell and Mr. P.E. O'Connel1 <strong>of</strong> the <strong>Hydrology</strong><br />
Section, Department <strong>of</strong> Civil Engineering, to whom I am deeply indebted for<br />
ideas and help.
References<br />
1.<br />
2.<br />
3.<br />
4.<br />
5.<br />
6.<br />
7.<br />
8.<br />
9.<br />
467<br />
Thomas, H.A. and Fiering, M.B. (19621, Mathematical synthesis <strong>of</strong> stream-<br />
flow sequences for the analysis <strong>of</strong> river basins by simulation, Ch. 12 in<br />
'<strong>Design</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Systems', by Maass, A., et al, London, Macmillan,<br />
pp. 459-493.<br />
Fiering, M.B. (19641, Multivariate techniques for synthetic hydrology,<br />
Proc. Am. Soc. Civ. Engrs., J. Hydraul. Div., Vol. 90, HY5, pp. 43-60.<br />
Matalas, N.C. (19671, Mathematical assessment <strong>of</strong> synthetic hydrology,<br />
<strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Research, Vol. 3, pp. 937-945.<br />
Young, G.K. and Pisano, W.C. (19681, Operational hydrology using residuals,<br />
Proc. Am. Soc. Civ. Engrs., J. Hydraul. Div. Vol. 94, HY4, ppe 909-923.<br />
Beard, L.R. (1965), Use <strong>of</strong> interrelated records to simulate streamflows,<br />
Proc. Am. Soc. Cive Engrs., J. Hydraul. Div., Vol. 91, Hy5, pp. 13-22.<br />
Moreau, D.H. and Fyatt, E.E. (19701, Weekly and monthly flows in synthetic<br />
hydrology, <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Research, Vol. 6, pp. 53-61.<br />
Quimpo, R.G. (19681, Stochastic analysis <strong>of</strong> daily river flows, Proc. Am.<br />
Soc. Civ. Engrs., J. Hydraul. Div., Vol. 94, HYI, pp. 43-58.<br />
Payne, K., Newman, W.R. and Kerri, K.D. (19691, Daily streamflow simulation,<br />
Proc. Am. Soc. Cive Engrs., J. Hydraul. Div., Vol. 95, HY4, pp. 1163-1180.<br />
Parzen, E. (19641, Stochastic processes, San Francisco, Holden-Day,<br />
pp- 144-159.
ABSTRACT<br />
FLOOD CONTROL DESIGN WITH LIMITED DATA - A COMPARISON<br />
OF THE CLASSICAL AND BAYESIAN APPROACHES<br />
Eric F. Wood<br />
Department <strong>of</strong> Civil Engineering<br />
MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY<br />
<strong>Water</strong> Resource planners usually design flood control structures<br />
by choosing an extreme value model. The model's parameters are esti-<br />
mated from the available streamflow data and design decisions are ma<br />
de by finding the discharge related to a particular level <strong>of</strong> risk.<br />
In most design problems the data on extreme events is severely limi-<br />
ted, making parameter estimation difficult. Two different parameter<br />
estimation approaches are investigated - classical and Bayesian -<br />
which are applied to a flood design problem for a nortkeastern U.S.<br />
river. The classical approach uses the maximum likelihood cri'terion<br />
for parameter estimation. The Bayesian approach is performed for 05-<br />
jective prior information based upon observations from other rivers<br />
and for subjective prior information derived by considering the<br />
effect <strong>of</strong> river basin development upon flood discharges. The results<br />
indicate that the classical and Bayesian approaches lead to diffe-<br />
rent design discharges for the same level <strong>of</strong> risk.<br />
Normalmente los Ingenieros Hidráulicos diseñan las estructuras<br />
para el control de crecidas eligiendo un modelo de valores extremos;<br />
los parámetros del mismo se estiman mediante los datos de aforo y<br />
se diseña mediante la determinación de la crecida asociada con un<br />
cierto nivel de riesgo. En la mayoria de los casos, la información<br />
disponible sobre los valores extremos es muy escasa, haciendo muy<br />
difícil la estimación de los parámetros. Se investigan dos métodos<br />
de estimación de pardmetros - el clásico y el Bayesiano - que se<br />
aplican a un problema de control de crecidas para un rio del nordes<br />
te de los Estados Unidos. El método cl'lsico utiliza el criterio de<br />
verosimilitud máxima para la estimación de parámetros. El enfoque<br />
Bayesiano se desarrolla con informaci8n priori" objetiva basada<br />
en observaciones realizadas en otros ríos, y con información "a<br />
priori" subjetiva obtenida al considerar el efecto del desarrollo<br />
de la cuenca sobre los caudales de crecida. Los resultados indican<br />
que los métodos clásico y Bayesiano llevan a diferentes valores de<br />
caudales de crecida para un mismo nivel de riesgo,
470<br />
INTRODUCTION<br />
In water resources planning the hydrologist's main function is analysis<br />
that lead to engineering decisions. The decision variable is not a hydrologic<br />
variable but a general engineering variable like the height <strong>of</strong> a dike or the<br />
size <strong>of</strong> a spillway. The separation <strong>of</strong> hydrologic analysis and economic<br />
analysis can not occur if efficient designs are to be obtained. In the<br />
decision process the design variables are related to the estimation <strong>of</strong> hydrologic<br />
variables through a loss function which reflects the different economic<br />
implications <strong>of</strong> the project.<br />
If one accepts this role for the hydrologist <strong>with</strong>in the planning process<br />
then a number <strong>of</strong> important qualitative implications follow.* It is useful to<br />
describe complex phenomena such as rainfall or run<strong>of</strong>f processes by the application<br />
<strong>of</strong> probability theory o<strong>nl</strong>y from the point <strong>of</strong> view that it produces a more<br />
economical design. If streamflows can be treated as random variables thep it<br />
is consistent to treat the unknown parameters <strong>of</strong> the distributions <strong>of</strong> streamflows<br />
as random variables. To treat the parameters <strong>of</strong> distribution <strong>of</strong> random<br />
variables as random variables is not "permitted" <strong>with</strong>in the framework <strong>of</strong><br />
classical statistics.<br />
The extension <strong>of</strong> this argument is that it is useful and pr<strong>of</strong>essionally<br />
sound to treat any uncertain factor as a random variable if it leads to better<br />
decisions. This includes variables such as the quality <strong>of</strong> workmanship in construction,<br />
cost and benefit adjustments due to inflation as well as the more<br />
traditional hydrologic variables.<br />
The designer should consider three types <strong>of</strong> uncertainty in his analysis -<br />
uncertainty <strong>of</strong> a probabilistic nature (i.e. frequency <strong>of</strong> occurrence), statistical<br />
uncertainty due to the limited number <strong>of</strong> observations from which parameters<br />
are to be estimated, and pr<strong>of</strong>essional uncertainty arising from incomplete information<br />
concerning the underlying process and its probabilistic representation<br />
(Cornell, 1972).<br />
The methodology <strong>of</strong> the decision process must be able to con-<br />
sider these forms <strong>of</strong> uncertainty as well as be able to utilize pr<strong>of</strong>essional<br />
judgement obtained from related experience <strong>with</strong> similar projects.<br />
Bayesian analysis <strong>with</strong>in the framework <strong>of</strong> statistical decision theory<br />
(ñaiffa, 1968) prescribes a methodology for making decisions under uncertainty.<br />
Decision theory allows the decision maker to consider together both the uncertainty<br />
<strong>of</strong> the modelled process, the quantifying <strong>of</strong> the decision outcomes and<br />
the preferences for these outcomes. Bayesian analysis is a probabilistic framework<br />
by which the uncertainty in any design variable and the knowledge about<br />
that variable can be considered. This paper is concerned <strong>with</strong> the latter aspect<br />
<strong>of</strong> the proposed methodology. The application <strong>of</strong> Bayesian analysis in water<br />
resources planning is gaining acceptance as decision makers recognize the<br />
* Parallel arguments have been used previously in support <strong>of</strong> a statistical<br />
decision approach to structural reliability analysis by Cornell (1972).
inherent advantages that combining information sources and treating uncertain<br />
parameters as random variables leads to better designs. In recent years many<br />
researchers have made significant contributions to this area. These include<br />
the work <strong>of</strong> Bernier (1967), Shane and Gaver (1970), Davis et al (1972a)<br />
Bogardi and Szidarovszky (1972) amongst others.*<br />
Probabilistic Model Formulation<br />
471<br />
One area <strong>of</strong> particular concern to water resource planners is the analysis<br />
<strong>of</strong> extreme events, mai<strong>nl</strong>y floods. This problem is especially applicable to the<br />
issues raised earlier since data is <strong>of</strong>ten scarce, <strong>with</strong> the consequences due to<br />
an inadequate design <strong>of</strong>ten severe.**<br />
The issues we wish to focus upon in this paper is a comparison <strong>of</strong> the<br />
classical approach and the Bayesian approach to flood analysis and design when<br />
direct observation <strong>of</strong> extreme events are either scarce, non-existant, or non-<br />
stationary. Substantial urbanization <strong>of</strong> a river basin introduces non-<br />
stationarity effects into the direct observations, thus decreasing their<br />
information content.<br />
The first step in any analysis, classical or Bayesian, is the construction<br />
(or assumption) <strong>of</strong> an underlying probabilistic model which represents the<br />
physical process. Consider the hypothetical streamflow trace presented in<br />
Figure 1. The flows <strong>of</strong> interest are those flows greater than Qo and it is<br />
assumed that flows larger than Qo can be described by a Poisson process (the<br />
time between events are exponentially distributed) <strong>with</strong> an average annual<br />
arrival rate and the probability distribution <strong>of</strong> the flows <strong>of</strong> interest (flows<br />
greater than Qo) can be represented by the exponential distribution<br />
where<br />
This is a fairly general form since the upper tails <strong>of</strong> many distributions<br />
may be represented as exponential. The proposed model has been used for<br />
extreme flows by Shane and Lynn (1964) and Todorovic and Zelenhasic (1970) and<br />
for rainfall events by (Davis et al (1972b)) and Grayman and Eagleson (1971).<br />
*The numerous papers at the International Symposium on Uncertainties in<br />
Hydrologic and <strong>Water</strong> Resource Systems, December 11-14, 1972, Tucson, Arizona,<br />
U.S.A. is pro<strong>of</strong> <strong>of</strong> the growing interest in this field.<br />
**The decision makers may also consider besides economic consequences social<br />
and pr<strong>of</strong>essional consequences due to failure <strong>of</strong> a flood control structure.<br />
These may be loss <strong>of</strong> life, disruption <strong>of</strong> community services and the loss <strong>of</strong><br />
pr<strong>of</strong>essional prestige. On the other hand, over design commits resources that<br />
could be used on other projects.
472<br />
A A<br />
The probability that, in any single occurrence, a discharge z (z = q -<br />
exceeds the discharge z is Pz, where<br />
-a2<br />
Pz = 1 - FZ(z) = e<br />
the process <strong>of</strong> these occurrences is Poisson <strong>with</strong> an average arrival<br />
rate VP and the probability that in time t n exceedances <strong>of</strong> level z will<br />
Z<br />
occur is<br />
n -UP t<br />
P[N = n 1 = (vP,) e<br />
n !<br />
No exceedances <strong>of</strong> z in time t is just<br />
probability function <strong>of</strong> z. Substituting<br />
[ -az<br />
F (z) = fvte z>o<br />
Z<br />
z< o<br />
The probability the z = O is equal to the probability that a peak discharge q<br />
is less than Q,. I If z is such that the probability <strong>of</strong> exceeding z is small<br />
and the arrival rate <strong>of</strong> such events is small then FZ (z) can be approximated by<br />
-a2<br />
FZ (z) 1 - vte<br />
(3)<br />
P [nz = O] = F (2); the cumulative<br />
P from (2) into<br />
Z FZ(z) gives<br />
The probabilistic model <strong>of</strong> the underlying physical process serves both the<br />
classical and Bayesian analyst but in slightly different ways.<br />
Assume that there is no uncertainty in the model itself but o<strong>nl</strong>y in its<br />
parameters CY and V . The classical analyst then obtains point estimators,<br />
V and a , (usually by the maximum likelihood criterion) from the observed<br />
streamflow record. His probabilistic model is<br />
The<br />
the<br />
Bayesian analyst, meanwhile, obtains probability density distributions on<br />
unknown parameters, v and a , from combining all sources <strong>of</strong> information.<br />
The Bayesian approach to the use <strong>of</strong> probabilistic methods recognizes that<br />
the subjective information <strong>of</strong> the analysis is inseparable from the objective<br />
aspects. Subjective infomation is incorporated into the analysis through a<br />
prior probability distribution which reflects the information content. This<br />
prior information is combined <strong>with</strong> objective information - direct data observations<br />
- to provide the analyst <strong>with</strong> a posterior distribution. This reflects<br />
all <strong>of</strong> his information. If the prior information is vague and the sample information<br />
is very good then the posterior distribution <strong>of</strong> the information will be<br />
(5)<br />
QO)
4'1 3<br />
negligibly affected by the prior. The opposite also holds. The prior information<br />
may be looked upon as that information an analyst wovld use if he had no<br />
observable data. In the design for floods a number <strong>of</strong> sources <strong>of</strong> information,<br />
are available. These include such sources as regression equations based on the<br />
physical characteristics <strong>of</strong> the basin (Benson, 1962) and analytical derivation<br />
<strong>of</strong> extreme flow dynamics (Eagleson, 1972) as well as engineering experience and<br />
expertise. To ignore these sources is to throw away potentially significant<br />
information which could lead to better designs. The use <strong>of</strong> diffuse or noninformation<br />
prior is in most cases wrong since it side steps this important<br />
aspect <strong>of</strong> Bayesian theory.<br />
The prior information and the direct observations are combined through<br />
Bayes theorem<br />
where<br />
f" (a) = t(aJUamp1e) f'(a) (7)<br />
f" (a) is the posterior probability distribution <strong>of</strong> parameter a<br />
&(alSampie) is the likelihood function <strong>of</strong> a given the observed<br />
samples.<br />
f'(a) is the prior probability distribution <strong>of</strong> parameter a.<br />
The posterior distribution, f'l(a), can be found analytically if the prior distribution<br />
is a natural conjugate. To obtain the posterior distribution from a<br />
prior which is not a natural conjugate usually requires the application <strong>of</strong><br />
numerical methods.<br />
jugate for both parameters Y and a.<br />
obtained from:<br />
The gamma-1 probability density function is the natural con-<br />
1 -<br />
FZ (2) = FZ<br />
all Y all a<br />
The Bayesian distribution <strong>of</strong> z, FZ (21, is<br />
(zIv,a) f"(v) f"(a) dvda (8)<br />
where FZ (zIv,a) = Fz (z) <strong>of</strong> equation (5)<br />
By assuming the posterior distribution on parameter v to be gamma - 1 <strong>with</strong><br />
parameters u" , SI' and parameter a to be gamma - 1 <strong>with</strong> parameters Y", E"<br />
(these aze obtained <strong>with</strong> natural conjugate priors) permits analytical evaluation<br />
<strong>of</strong> 1 - FZ (2).<br />
v a
474<br />
where<br />
L ""+1 J<br />
1 - F (2) = Ut 1 +E<br />
z<br />
cI=vII+1<br />
E''<br />
3 = - u"+l<br />
S "<br />
This is the probabilistic model for the Bayesian analysis. It is interesting<br />
to note that the form is completely different from classical analysis model<br />
(equation 6).<br />
<strong>Design</strong> Model Formulation<br />
The motivation for developing the probabilistic models <strong>of</strong> extreme events<br />
is to apply them in making decisions. Suppose we are interested in the damage<br />
associated <strong>with</strong> the exceedance flow z which is larger than the flood pro-<br />
tection flow level r . The total cost is comprised <strong>of</strong> a damage cost C,(z)<br />
and a protection cost C (r). For our example, let's assume that the damage<br />
cost can be expressed b!:<br />
C,(z) = C1 (z-r) (10)<br />
while the cost <strong>of</strong> protection can be expressed by:<br />
C,(r) = K + Co r (11)<br />
If the expected criterion is used to evaluate different protection levels then<br />
the expected cost, E[c], <strong>of</strong> protecting for a flow r is<br />
m<br />
z=r<br />
For the classical model f(z) is:<br />
from differentiating equation (6). Thus the annual exp,ected damage E[CZ] from<br />
flooding when flood protection r is provided is<br />
This assumes that r<br />
FZ(z) is valid.<br />
a<br />
is large enough that the upper tail approximation for
In the Bayesian framework equation (12) applies but <strong>with</strong> the Bayesian<br />
density function f(z) which is obtained from equation (9) as:<br />
The annual expected damages due to flooding is<br />
again assuming that<br />
Example Application<br />
the upper tail approximation <strong>of</strong> Fz (z) is valid.<br />
475<br />
The analytical formulations developed here are applied to a river in the<br />
Northeastern region <strong>of</strong> the United States. The mean <strong>of</strong> fhe maximum yearly flood<br />
is about 5800 cfs. Exceedance events were considered to be flows greater than<br />
10,500 cfs which is somewhere around the 10 year recurrence intervals. O<strong>nl</strong>y<br />
three flows in the 37 years <strong>of</strong> record (1929 through 1965) exceeded this base<br />
flow.<br />
Bayesian Parameter Estimation<br />
Estimation for a<br />
Prior information on a , the event magnitude distribution, was obtained<br />
from a regression on 36 other Northeastern United States basins. The regression<br />
related exceedance flows to physical characteristics found <strong>with</strong>in any drainage<br />
basin. The following regression was obtained:<br />
.153 o 2.87 A .81 .74 .54 .65<br />
Qm- St<br />
where*<br />
is mean exceedance flow, in cubic feet per second<br />
% is orographic factor<br />
A is drainage basin area, in square miles<br />
S<br />
T<br />
is main channel slope, in feet per mile<br />
is average January, degrees below freezing, in degrees Fahrenheit<br />
St<br />
is percent <strong>of</strong> surface storage area plus .5 percent<br />
Since partial duration series and annual flood series are virtually identi-<br />
cal above a frequency <strong>of</strong> about the 10 year flood (Langbein, 1949) the use <strong>of</strong> the<br />
annual series for the prior was considered to be adequate for this example.<br />
Research is presently being conducted by the author to study the problems <strong>of</strong><br />
appropriate prior information.<br />
*The physical characteristics are from Benson (1962) and the streamflow data<br />
from the U.S. Geological <strong>Water</strong> Supply Papers. (1301-A, 1721-A, 1901-A).<br />
J
From the regression an estimate <strong>of</strong> the mean exceedance flood, Q and an<br />
estimate <strong>of</strong> the variance <strong>of</strong> the mean flood were found to be:<br />
P9<br />
= 734 cfs<br />
QP<br />
5 2<br />
V[Q ] = 4.9 x 10 (cfs)<br />
P<br />
Due to the assumed distribution <strong>of</strong> the magnitude <strong>of</strong> exceedance events, the mean<br />
exceedance flood can be related to the event magnitude distribution parameter<br />
by Q = l/a. If Q is assumed to be distributed as an inverted gamma -1 distribetion<br />
<strong>with</strong> pargrneters v' and R' then a is distributed gamma -1 <strong>with</strong> parameters<br />
v', $' (biffa and Cchlaifer. 1961); that is<br />
<strong>with</strong><br />
V[Qp] = v'>1<br />
(v')2 (VI-i)<br />
This gave parameters v' = 2, R' = 1468. Thus the prior distribution on O! ,<br />
f' (a) is<br />
-1468a<br />
fgYl(a) = e a2 (i468I3<br />
r (3)<br />
The posterior <strong>of</strong> , f"(a) can now be evaluated by equation (7). Thus<br />
5 -33668a<br />
f" (a) = Ka e<br />
YI<br />
where<br />
(20)<br />
n<br />
The posterior <strong>of</strong> a is gamma -1 <strong>with</strong> parameters E' = + zi ; VI' = V I+ n<br />
Estimation for v .<br />
The estimation <strong>of</strong> prior information on u, the average arrival rate,<br />
involves, as a first step, the estimation <strong>of</strong> the first two central moments <strong>of</strong><br />
the distribution <strong>of</strong> the arrival rate <strong>of</strong> a peak flow that will exceed the base<br />
flow Qo. In our example, this base flow was 10,500 cfs. There are some<br />
probabilistic or statistical methods one may use to approach this problem or<br />
the engineer may have said simply "based upon my experience in the area, my<br />
best estimate <strong>of</strong> v<br />
minus .O25 <strong>of</strong> .l'I.<br />
is .1 and there is a 50-50 chance that v could be plus or<br />
The implication <strong>of</strong> that statement is that the standard
deviation is about ,033. If that is accepted for our example and if a g a m - 1<br />
distribution for the prior<br />
-<br />
<strong>of</strong> V is assumed then<br />
-0'V U'<br />
f' (v) e (s'v) s'<br />
YI<br />
-<br />
r (u'+i)<br />
<strong>with</strong> u' 8<br />
s' = 92<br />
(21)<br />
The posterior distribution <strong>of</strong> , fy1" (u) is just<br />
3 .-37 v8 .-92~<br />
f II (y) = v<br />
Y1<br />
-129~<br />
= v" e<br />
(22)<br />
- yhich is g a m - 1 distributed <strong>with</strong> parameters u" 11, si' = 129, and mean<br />
v= .O85 events per year.<br />
Substituting these into the Bayesian design model <strong>of</strong> Equation (9) yields<br />
- 1 - FZ (z) 5 .085t<br />
-<br />
Thus the Bayesian model, 1 - F (z), <strong>of</strong> equation (23) is shown in<br />
2<br />
Figure 2. The effect <strong>of</strong> considering diffuse prior information (no observations<br />
in no years <strong>of</strong> data) is also shown in Figure 2.<br />
Classical Proceedures<br />
Application <strong>of</strong> the classical estimation proceedures is straight forward.<br />
Estimators for both the average arrival rate, v , and the parameter <strong>of</strong> the<br />
event magnitude distr&bution, a can be obtained by applying the maximum likelihood<br />
criterion. For v , the estimator for v, the likelihood function is:<br />
and the maximum likelihood criterion; 2 = O yields<br />
Similarly for a ;<br />
a,<br />
j = 0 = 3 = .O81<br />
tr<br />
-<br />
37<br />
-5<br />
a = n = 9.3 x 10<br />
zi<br />
i=l
478<br />
A Kolmogorov-Smirnos test on the models using the derived estimators<br />
passed the .10 significance level <strong>with</strong> ease.<br />
Thus the classical estimator model for our example is<br />
-9.3 10-~~<br />
1 - FZ(z) .O811 e<br />
which is the probability <strong>of</strong> observing a peak flow z in the next interval <strong>of</strong><br />
time. The classical model, 1 - F<br />
Z<br />
(z) represented by equation (25), is compared<br />
to the Bayesian model in Figure 2.<br />
<strong>Design</strong> Application<br />
Using cost coefficients for Equations (10) and (11) as being:<br />
4<br />
c1 = $10 Icfs<br />
K = $25 x lo4 equivalent annual cost over a<br />
= $102/cfs proposed 50-year project life.<br />
for the classical design proceedures in Equation (16) utilizing the Bayesian<br />
design model and in Equation (14) for the classical design model.<br />
The expected annual cost <strong>of</strong> providing protection against the 100 year<br />
flood is presented in Table I.<br />
100 yr flood Expected Flood Equivalent Annual<br />
discharge Damages ($1 Protection Cost-50 Yr Life($)<br />
Bayesian Model 17500 7 105 20 105<br />
Classical Model 22500 10.76 lo5 25 105<br />
Table I - Comparisons <strong>of</strong> Costs and Damages for Bayesian<br />
and Classical Models<br />
For each model the flood which had the lowest expected total cost also was the<br />
100 year flood.<br />
Discussion<br />
Incorporating Non-Stationarity Effects<br />
The problems <strong>of</strong> flood analysis when non-stationarity has been introduced<br />
into the streamflow records due to increased development <strong>of</strong> the drainage basin<br />
have not been completely solved. Recent studies by Bras (1972) have shorn<br />
~~
479<br />
increases in flood peaks <strong>of</strong> developed catchments <strong>of</strong> between 30% to 115% depend-<br />
ing upon the particular size and shape <strong>of</strong> the storm. Basin development tends<br />
to remove natural stream storage areas as well as decrease impervious areas and<br />
holding ability <strong>of</strong> natural ground cover. The effects <strong>of</strong> changing these charac-<br />
teristics can best be investigated by a deterministic catchment run<strong>of</strong>f model<br />
that utilizes a stochastic rainfall generator (Harley, Wood and Schaake, 1973).<br />
The Bayesian analyst has a number <strong>of</strong> options open to him which include a<br />
rainfall analysis, a run<strong>of</strong>f analysis from the catchment analysis, and other<br />
approaches. He can either utilize the streamflow data or ignore it, applying<br />
his engineering judgment in many ways.<br />
The classical analysis has few, if any, options open to him. The strict<br />
application <strong>of</strong> his theory permits him o<strong>nl</strong>y to consider the historical record<br />
which will not apply to the developed basin. If the amount <strong>of</strong> development is<br />
small, then the historical record may still contain valuable information but if<br />
extensive modifications have taken place and the classical analyst still uses<br />
his historical record then he must be able to defend it.<br />
Conclusions<br />
The role <strong>of</strong> analysis is to aid decision making. The two approaches presented<br />
here lead to quite different design decisions.<br />
The classical approach restricts the analyst to the observable hydrologic<br />
data to which other information sources can not be added. Furthermore, it is<br />
not possible to include <strong>with</strong>in the analysis other uncertain parameters which<br />
may affect the design.<br />
Instead some other artifical mechanism is used such as<br />
adding a factor <strong>of</strong> safety to the design variable, designing for the largest<br />
possible event or using some other method which can not be related to a mean-<br />
ingful economic (or social) preference criterion.<br />
Too <strong>of</strong>ten too much weight is given to a few observable data points and too<br />
little weight to other available information. Lhe Bayesian analysis is a methodology<br />
which enables the combination <strong>of</strong> information sources as well as allows<br />
the explicit evaluation <strong>of</strong> the effect <strong>of</strong> all sources <strong>of</strong> uncertainty upon the<br />
decision variables. The application <strong>of</strong> the Bayesian approach will lead to<br />
better design than will a classical analysis which is restricted to a few observations<br />
and whose conclusions are difficult to interpret.<br />
Acknowledgments<br />
The work was supported by the Office <strong>of</strong> <strong>Water</strong> Resourc Research, Office<br />
<strong>of</strong> the Interior, United States Government under Grant No. 14-31-0001-9021.<br />
References<br />
1. Benson (1962). "Factors Influencing the Occurrence <strong>of</strong> Floods in a Humid<br />
Region <strong>of</strong> Diverse Terrain" U.S. Geological Survey <strong>Water</strong> Supply Paper 1580-B,<br />
Washington, D.C.
480<br />
2.<br />
3.<br />
4.<br />
5.<br />
6.<br />
7.<br />
8.<br />
9.<br />
10.<br />
11.<br />
12.<br />
13,<br />
Bernier (1967). "Les Methods Bayesiennes En Hydrologie Statistique"<br />
Proceedinvs <strong>of</strong> the Int. Hydro Symp., September 1967, Colorado State<br />
University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA.<br />
Bogardi and Szidarovszky (1972)."The Margin <strong>of</strong> Safety for Compensating<br />
Losses due to Uncertainties in Hydrological Statistics" Proceedings <strong>of</strong><br />
the Int. Symp on Uncertainties in Hydrologic and <strong>Water</strong> Resource Systems.<br />
Dec. 1972, University <strong>of</strong> Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA.<br />
Bras (1972)."Effects <strong>of</strong> Urbanization on Run<strong>of</strong>f Characteristics <strong>of</strong> Small<br />
Basins in Puerto Rico" Unpublished Bachelor <strong>of</strong> Science thesis, Department<br />
<strong>of</strong> Civil Engineering, Massachusetts Institute <strong>of</strong> Technology, Cambridge,<br />
Massachusetts, U.S.A.<br />
Cornell (1972). "Bayesian Statistical Decision Theory and Reliability-<br />
Based <strong>Design</strong>" Structural Safety and Reliability, (A. Freudenthal, ed.),<br />
Pergamon Press, New York.<br />
Davis, Kisiel, and Duckstein (1972a)."Bayesian Decision Theory Applied to<br />
<strong>Design</strong> in <strong>Hydrology</strong>" <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Research, Vol. 8 No. 1.<br />
Davis, Duckstein and Kisiel (1972b)."Uncertainty in the Return Period <strong>of</strong><br />
Maximum Events : A Bayesian Approach" Proceedings <strong>of</strong> the Int. Symp. on<br />
Uncertainties in Hydrologic and <strong>Water</strong> Resource Systems. December 1972,<br />
University <strong>of</strong> Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, U.S.A.<br />
Eagleson (1972). "Dynamics <strong>of</strong> Flood Frequency" <strong>Water</strong> Resource Research<br />
Vol. 8, No. 4.<br />
Grayman and Eagleson (1971). "Evaluation <strong>of</strong> Radar and Raingage Systems for<br />
Forcasting" Ralph M. Parsons for <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> and Hydrodynamics T.R. No.<br />
138, Department <strong>of</strong> Civil Engineering, M.I.T., Cambridge, Mass. U.S.A.<br />
Harley, Wood, and Schaake (1973). "The Application <strong>of</strong> Hydrologic Models to<br />
Urban Planning" Presented at 54th Annual Meeting, American Geophysical<br />
Union, Washington, D.C., April, 1973.<br />
Langbein a949). "Annual Floods and the Partial Duration Flood Series"<br />
American Geophysical Union Transaction, V. 30, pp. 879-881.<br />
Raiffa (1968). Decision Analysis, Addison-Wesley, Reading, Mass., U.S.A.<br />
Raiffa and Schlaijer (1961). Applied Statistical Decision Theory, M.I.T.<br />
Press, Cambridge, Mass., U.S.A.<br />
14. Shane and Gaver (1970). "Statistical Decision Theory Techniques for the<br />
Revision <strong>of</strong> Mean Flow Regression Estimates" <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Research,<br />
Vol. 6, No. 6.
16. Todorovic and Felenhasic (1970). "A Stochastic Model for Flood Analysis"<br />
<strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Research, Vol. 6, No. 6.<br />
481<br />
17. United States Department <strong>of</strong> the Interior. "Surface <strong>Water</strong> <strong>of</strong> North Atlantic<br />
Slope Basins, throu$-11950", U.S.G.S.<br />
D.C., 1957.<br />
<strong>Water</strong> Supply Paper f301, Washington,<br />
18. . "Surface <strong>Water</strong> <strong>of</strong> North Atlantic<br />
Slope Basins, 1950-60", U.S.G.S. <strong>Water</strong> Supply Paper 1721, Washington, D.C.,<br />
1969.<br />
19. . "Surface <strong>Water</strong> Supply <strong>of</strong> the U.S.<br />
1961-65Jater Supply Paper 1901, Washington,<br />
D.C., 1969.
482<br />
4<br />
Q<br />
W<br />
TIME<br />
O. DISCHARGE Q I EXCEEDANCE DISCHARGE 2 = Q-Qo<br />
Figure 1: Typical Discharge Record Showing Exceedance Events and<br />
Showing the Probability Density Functions for both Discharges<br />
and Exceedance Events.<br />
Qo
O O<br />
rn<br />
O<br />
2<br />
O<br />
O<br />
O U1<br />
O<br />
O<br />
o<br />
O<br />
i<br />
O<br />
Lrl<br />
ri<br />
O<br />
01<br />
O<br />
O<br />
ln<br />
N<br />
483
Authors and Titles;<br />
axe:<br />
THE USE OF MATHEMATICAL (DETERMINISTIC) MODELS<br />
General Report<br />
bY<br />
J. E. Nash<br />
University College, Galway. Ireland.<br />
At the time <strong>of</strong> writing four papers have been received. These<br />
(1) "A Rainfall-Run<strong>of</strong>f Model Based on the <strong>Water</strong>shed Stream Network" by<br />
J.W. Deleur and N.T. Lee, <strong>of</strong> the School <strong>of</strong> Civil Engineering, Purdue<br />
University, and the Department <strong>of</strong> Agricultural l3conomics <strong>of</strong> the<br />
university <strong>of</strong> Illinois, respectively.<br />
(2) "Monthly Streamflow EstLnation from Limited Data" by C.T. Haan,<br />
<strong>of</strong> the Agricultural Engineering Department, University <strong>of</strong> Kentucky.<br />
(3) "Obtaining <strong>of</strong> Deficient Information by Solving Inverse Problems<br />
from Mathematical run<strong>of</strong>f models", by V.I. Koren and L.S. Kutchent,<br />
<strong>of</strong> the Hydrometeorological Centre <strong>of</strong> the U.S.S.R.<br />
(4) "The. Mathematical Model <strong>of</strong> <strong>Water</strong> Balance for Data Scarce Areas" by<br />
Nabil R<strong>of</strong>ail, <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Department, Desert Institute <strong>of</strong> Cairo.<br />
Introduction: In view <strong>of</strong> the relatively small number <strong>of</strong> papers it had been<br />
suggested to me by the OrgGisers that I should include some introductory comment<br />
<strong>of</strong> my own,on the subject <strong>of</strong> catchment modelling.<br />
However, while the number <strong>of</strong><br />
Papers is indeed small, they are all interesting and two <strong>of</strong> them are <strong>of</strong> a
486<br />
mathematical nature and will require time to elucidate.<br />
interesting,in that it presents a practical tool developed and used in the<br />
Soviet Union but, as far as I am aware, not generally known in the West.<br />
paper also happens, understandably, to be very difficult to follow, and on<br />
these two accounts, I propose to devote a somewhat disproportionate part <strong>of</strong> the<br />
time available to its consideration. I feel sure that the other authors will<br />
not consider this in any way a slight and, as I am sure that this distinguished<br />
audience would prefer me to devote any time available to the consideration<br />
<strong>of</strong> khis interesting technique, I shall keep my own general comments on the<br />
subject <strong>of</strong> modelling as brief as possible.<br />
Hydrological Modelling:<br />
One <strong>of</strong> these is particular3<br />
This<br />
The variety <strong>of</strong> titles among the papers we are considering<br />
reflects the widely different senses in which the term modelling is understood.<br />
Nevertheless, there is a strong common link between them.<br />
that a natural phenomenon such as the conversion <strong>of</strong> rainfall into discharge, or<br />
the movement <strong>of</strong> water in a porous medium, is represented by an hypothesis or<br />
model, expressed as a series <strong>of</strong> operations which are,performed<br />
This would seem to be,<br />
on one<br />
function <strong>of</strong> time (the input) to convert it to another function <strong>of</strong> time (the<br />
output), or as a single mathematical relationship, a partial or ordinary<br />
differential equation which must be solved in terms <strong>of</strong> boundary CQnditions.<br />
The relationship between the three elements may be represented by<br />
Where the relationship is <strong>of</strong> a causal nature this may be indicated by<br />
6 f fe.c E-<br />
y ?)
I make this distinction because the mathematical solution <strong>of</strong> such problems is<br />
<strong>of</strong>ten against the direction ,<strong>of</strong> the arrow, which from the mathematical point <strong>of</strong><br />
view may,therefore,be considered irrelevant. I shall use the terms cause and<br />
487<br />
effect for emphasis, o<strong>nl</strong>y when the direction <strong>of</strong> the arrow is physically relevant<br />
Either diagram represents a relationship between three quantities one o<strong>nl</strong>y <strong>of</strong><br />
which may be unknown in any realistic problem.<br />
The solution sought may be the output, the input, or a description <strong>of</strong>,<br />
(or parameters <strong>of</strong>) the operation itself (e.g. a unit hydrograph or the coefficients<br />
<strong>of</strong> a differential equation).<br />
Generally speakingrit is true in the hydrological context that the operations,<br />
viewed in the direction from cause to effect are stablelin the sense that bounded<br />
causes produce bounded effects and small variations in the causes produce smaller<br />
variation in the effects.<br />
Precisely because <strong>of</strong> this fact, the inverse operation<br />
discussed by Koren and Kutchment, <strong>of</strong> the discovery <strong>of</strong> the cause <strong>of</strong> an observed<br />
effect, or the discovery <strong>of</strong> an operation itself, tends to be unstable and small<br />
variations oierrors in the observed output produce larger variations or errors<br />
in the computed cause,or the computed values <strong>of</strong> the parameters <strong>of</strong> the operation.<br />
Por this reason the solution <strong>of</strong> the inverse problem is usually very much more<br />
difficult than the solution <strong>of</strong> the direct problem.<br />
The Direct Problem:<br />
which arise usually involve questions <strong>of</strong> convergence <strong>of</strong> finite difference<br />
solutions <strong>of</strong> differential equations.<br />
This has at least a logical simplicity and the difficulties<br />
The paper by Nabill R<strong>of</strong>ail describes the<br />
solution <strong>of</strong> one such problem which we shall discuss in some deail later.
488<br />
Among the inverse problems it is useful to distinguish three types<br />
(a) The input is unknown<br />
(b) The values <strong>of</strong> the parameters <strong>of</strong> the operation are unknowr<br />
(c) The form and parameter values <strong>of</strong> the operation are unknowr<br />
In the particular case <strong>of</strong> a lumped linear system where the input, the<br />
operation and the output may be represented by<br />
L<br />
where x(t) is the input, y(t) is the output and h(t) the impulse response, the<br />
three classes collapse to one. For such systems the form <strong>of</strong> the operation may<br />
be described uniquely by the impulse response <strong>of</strong> the system and,theoretically at<br />
least,this may be found <strong>with</strong>out prior specification <strong>of</strong> its form. Therefore the<br />
second and third classes merge.<br />
Furthermore, because <strong>of</strong> the symmetry in h and<br />
x in the two equations, a symmetry which becomes more obvious when the relationshi1<br />
ià expressed in terms <strong>of</strong> Lapace transforms through the Faltung theorm,<br />
Ys) = X(sj HU) (3)<br />
the problems <strong>of</strong> discovering h and x are mathematically the same, so that all three<br />
distinctions vanish.<br />
in the no<strong>nl</strong>inear problem, however, or when recognition<br />
<strong>of</strong> the system implies discovery <strong>of</strong> the coefficients <strong>of</strong> a partial differential<br />
equation (a distributed system) the distinctions remain valid.<br />
The Lumped,Linear Model:<br />
For functions which are not simple expressions, it is<br />
usually easiest to deal <strong>with</strong> these models in discrete form.<br />
Eqs. 1 and 2 are<br />
replaced by €Y] = IhJ i4 (4 1<br />
and ius = PI €h3 c=>
where [x] and<br />
at equal time invervals.<br />
[y] are vectors <strong>of</strong> the input and output respectively, sampled<br />
ordina tes <strong>of</strong> the impulse response as<br />
h, O 0:<br />
[hJ is a rectangular matrix formed from the<br />
[h] =<br />
Similarly Lx] in eq. 5 is a rectangular matrix formed from the input<br />
ordinates in the same way.<br />
.<br />
The direct. problem <strong>of</strong> finding fy3 is trivial. The inverse problems <strong>of</strong><br />
finding 1.3 <strong>of</strong> eq. 4 or {XI from eq. 5 are mathematically the same.<br />
Because <strong>of</strong> the,great stability <strong>of</strong> the operation in the direct direction,<br />
solution <strong>of</strong> the inverse problems tends to be very unstable and therefore<br />
489<br />
difficult. Traditional means usually involve a least squares solution;(Snyder)<br />
or the imposition <strong>of</strong> constraints on the impulse response e.g. harmonic analysis<br />
<strong>with</strong> a limited number <strong>of</strong> terms (O’D~nnell). A new method <strong>of</strong> obtaining a least<br />
squares solution under a constraint is described in the paper by Koren and<br />
Kutchment.<br />
Distributed Linear Models: If the input is distributed in space in a<br />
constant manner the direct problem is essentially the same as that <strong>of</strong> the<br />
lumped linear system (Kraijenh<strong>of</strong>f van de Leur, Venetis). If however the<br />
input is arbitrarily distributed in space,the differential equation must be<br />
solved numerically for the direct problem, usually by reducing the problem<br />
to linear difference equations, which are solved at the node points <strong>of</strong> an xt<br />
plane. An example is provided in the paper by Nabil R<strong>of</strong>ail.
490<br />
Threatment <strong>of</strong> the inverse problem to discover the input or the coefficients<br />
in a known linear system expressed as a partial differential equation,are rare.<br />
An attempt to discover the characteristics <strong>of</strong> an aquifer is described in ref. 6 <strong>of</strong><br />
the paper by Koren and Kutchment, and the paper itself gives two examples <strong>of</strong> such ai<br />
attempt to determine values <strong>of</strong> the conveyances and cross sectional areas as<br />
functions <strong>of</strong> space and time in an open channel.<br />
The General No<strong>nl</strong>inear Problem: The direct problems are again relatively<br />
straightforward - the no<strong>nl</strong>inearity complicates the numerical solution <strong>of</strong> distribute(<br />
systems (partial differential equations) but .the lumped parameters systems are<br />
scarcely affected.<br />
The Inverse Problem involves, generally, postulation <strong>of</strong> the form <strong>of</strong> the<br />
operation (i.e. a conceptual model) and estimation <strong>of</strong> the parameters<br />
successive approximations. The first approximations are inserted in the model<br />
and the output computed.<br />
This is compared <strong>with</strong> the observed output and a<br />
single expression <strong>of</strong> the observed errors (the objective function) is systematically<br />
reduced by subsequent trial and error adjustments <strong>of</strong> the parameters values.<br />
Examples are provided in the papers by Deleur and Lee and Haan. The major'<br />
difficulties <strong>with</strong> this method are that the set <strong>of</strong> solutions obtained may not<br />
be unique and, particularly when two or more parameters represent similar<br />
operations,the optimised values are subject to very .high sampling variance.<br />
It would be interesting to speculate whether such problems could be made amenable<br />
to direct least squares approximations, as so <strong>of</strong>ten used in the corresponding<br />
linear case.<br />
Theorétically, this would seem possible, but it may be, as seems<br />
to be generally assumed, that the complexity. <strong>of</strong> the equation representing the<br />
by
dependence <strong>of</strong> the objective function On the parameters might render its formulation<br />
difficulty. I feel however that this possibility ought to be explored.<br />
Having thus classified the papers according to the nature <strong>of</strong> the problem discussed<br />
we corne to a consideration <strong>of</strong> the papers themselves in some detail. These I<br />
would like to take in the order <strong>of</strong> their classification above.<br />
491
492<br />
A Mathematical Model <strong>of</strong> <strong>Water</strong> Balance for Data Scarce Areas<br />
by R<strong>of</strong>ail<br />
The title <strong>of</strong> this paper is somewhat misleading.<br />
fact the numerical solution <strong>of</strong> the linearised equations <strong>of</strong> motion <strong>of</strong> groundwater<br />
in an unconfined aquifer.<br />
distributed linear system. Neglecting any vertical component <strong>of</strong> velocity, the<br />
horizontal components parallel to the x and y axis in a homogeneous aquifer are<br />
proportional to the gradients <strong>of</strong> the piezometric head (h+z). The constant <strong>of</strong><br />
proportionality (k) is known as the coefficient <strong>of</strong> permeability, (authors eqs.<br />
1 and 2).<br />
The subject matter is in<br />
It is therefore a case <strong>of</strong> a direct solution <strong>of</strong> a<br />
The continuity equation (aut4ors eq.3) expresses the fact that the rate<br />
<strong>of</strong> rise <strong>of</strong> the surface <strong>of</strong> saturation<br />
, at a’point in the aquifer, is<br />
proportional to the rate <strong>of</strong> percolation down to the aquifer at this point, plus<br />
the net rate <strong>of</strong> flow towards the point (the negative <strong>of</strong> the divergence). The<br />
constant <strong>of</strong> proportionality is known as the specific yield and is given the<br />
symbol/h in authors eq. 3. These two equations are combined in the authors eq.4<br />
by replacing the velocity terms by the corresponding gradients <strong>of</strong> the piezometri<br />
head, yielding an equation in the head o<strong>nl</strong>y.<br />
3Yhtz) k ukæl , a h<br />
3% b>c<br />
03 1
This equation contains first and second order derivatives <strong>of</strong> the depth h and<br />
the elevation <strong>of</strong> the aquifer bed z, and is non-linear due to the occurrence <strong>of</strong><br />
- By further assuming that the gradient <strong>of</strong> h is small relative to that <strong>of</strong> z,<br />
terms such as (&become ah small relative to s. 9s and are dropped,thus<br />
linearibing the equation (authors'eq. 5)<br />
9 8 - h $:jL- WZ. ah<br />
11<br />
az- - arc- E<br />
bLh hg?, ah .k-- -<br />
-h--, -<br />
bu<br />
DY ay k<br />
493<br />
N =o (Id<br />
This assumption is attributed to"Boussenzq" and is stated to be that the<br />
powers <strong>of</strong> derivatives <strong>of</strong> the first order are <strong>of</strong> a lesser order <strong>of</strong> magnitude<br />
than the derivatives themselves. This would, <strong>of</strong> course, be an acceptable assumption<br />
but it does not seem to be that which is in fact made by the author in obtaining<br />
his eq. 5 from eq. 4. Perhaps the authors would like to comment on this.<br />
To emphasise the linearity <strong>of</strong> eq. 5 in terms <strong>of</strong> the partial derivatives <strong>of</strong> h,<br />
the partial derivatives <strong>of</strong> z (assumed to be known) are written as 7, and fy<br />
and the second order derivatives (also assumed to be known as r, and fiv<br />
in eq. 10. (Note that in the text the quantities 7,, and Vy are incorrectly<br />
stated to be the partial derivatives <strong>of</strong> h; this in o<strong>nl</strong>y a printing errer).<br />
In order to advance the solution from time n'to the n+l the author<br />
replaces the equation <strong>of</strong> motion <strong>with</strong> two distinct finite difference approximations.
494<br />
The first is applied to the first half <strong>of</strong> the time interval and the second to<br />
the second half. For ease <strong>of</strong> comparison I reproduce here the equivalences as<br />
used in the two successive steps.<br />
j and k refer to the node point location in the x and y directions and n<br />
to the number <strong>of</strong> the time interval. approximation<br />
1st half 2nd half<br />
derivative step.<br />
step<br />
-<br />
These approximations have a certain symmetry, which when the finite differenc<br />
approximations are added for the two half time steps,make the results consistent<br />
<strong>with</strong> the original equation up to the second order. They have the additional merit<br />
that the finite difference<br />
written implicity in terms<br />
equation for the first half step in time, can be<br />
n 42<br />
<strong>of</strong> linear combination <strong>of</strong> (h,-l ., h, and hJ+l)<br />
<strong>with</strong> the coefficients all known (author's eq. il). Similarly the equation<br />
applied to the second<br />
rt'<br />
half step yields an implicit equation linear in<br />
h, and hrti ail the coefficients again being known (authors eq. 12).<br />
(LI<br />
These implicit equations can be solved as a linear set when the boundary condition8<br />
are provided to yield h for all node points at a single time.<br />
the solution through time.<br />
Repetition extends
"A rainfall run<strong>of</strong>f model based on the watershed and stream network"<br />
ßy Delleur and Lee<br />
The problem discussed, i.e. that <strong>of</strong> recognising a lumpedpon-linear model,<br />
is in the inverse category and the method used is that <strong>of</strong> postulating the form<br />
<strong>of</strong> the system and optimisation <strong>of</strong> the parameters.<br />
The authors begin by pointing out that even <strong>with</strong> forty years <strong>of</strong> record the<br />
errors in estimating the parameters <strong>of</strong> a stochastic model <strong>of</strong> annual flows<br />
may be quite high.<br />
rainfall-run<strong>of</strong>f process,likewise,require long term series <strong>of</strong> both the rainfall<br />
and run<strong>of</strong>f for their calibration. They conclude, therefore, that for regions<br />
<strong>with</strong> inadequate data one may have to resort to deterministic models either <strong>of</strong><br />
the "black box" or <strong>of</strong> the "physical" type.<br />
to whether the model form attempts to mirror the physical processes or is merely<br />
a linear regression. The authors point to the obvious deficiency <strong>of</strong> black<br />
box models,that they cannot be transferred from one location to another because<br />
there is an absense <strong>of</strong> a one to one relationship between the parameters <strong>of</strong> the<br />
model and the parameters<br />
They mention also that stochastic linear models <strong>of</strong> the<br />
This distinction is made according<br />
the watershed. They conclude, therefore, that a<br />
495<br />
physical model requiring o<strong>nl</strong>y a small number <strong>of</strong> identifiable parameters or a model<br />
based on data which can be obtained in a relatively short time is required.<br />
I am not sure what the authors mean by 'a stochastic linear model <strong>of</strong> the<br />
rainfall run<strong>of</strong>f process" nor am I sure that these several models are<br />
alternatives for the same piirpose.<br />
It seems to me that if one requires a<br />
stochastic model in order to generate a time series having the properties <strong>of</strong><br />
the observed sample it can scarcely be rubstituted for by a deterministic model<br />
(whether <strong>of</strong> a black box nature or otherwise) relating rainfall to discharge.
496<br />
Before such a model could be used to produce a synthetic discharge record the<br />
stochastic properties <strong>of</strong> the rainfall input would have to be computed and a<br />
synthetic rainfall record fed into the deterministic model.<br />
that the problem had merely been transferred rather than solved by the substitution<br />
<strong>of</strong> the deterministic model.<br />
Thus it would seem<br />
If <strong>of</strong> course a much longer ,rainfall record was<br />
available this might be useful. The authors intention is to provide a deterministi<br />
model <strong>with</strong> a small number <strong>of</strong> parameters preferably identifiable from the catchment<br />
characteristics. I don't .think there would be any argument about the usefulness<br />
<strong>of</strong> such a model even if it would not substitute for a stochastic model for a<br />
different purpose.<br />
The authors suggest that the availability <strong>of</strong> modern techniques <strong>of</strong> photography<br />
and general remote sensing technology make it possible to observe relevant<br />
catchment characteristics on a large scale and therefore to include these in the<br />
deterministic model.<br />
In the authors'model use,is made <strong>of</strong> the following catchment<br />
characteristics obtained by aerial photography - the plan form <strong>of</strong> the stream<br />
network, the topography, and the soil type. The model attempts to relate the<br />
areal mean <strong>of</strong> the rainfall to the discharge at the gauging site, both as functions<br />
<strong>of</strong> time.<br />
area which is the area contributing at any given instant to the flow at the<br />
gauging station i.e. the function <strong>of</strong> time representing that portion <strong>of</strong> the<br />
catchment from which run<strong>of</strong>f is currently passing the gauging station at the time<br />
in question.<br />
The structure <strong>of</strong> the model depends largely on the concept <strong>of</strong> a contributi<br />
Obviously the contributing area is a functi,on <strong>of</strong> the catchment<br />
wetness and the model for this quantity, described by the authors'eq. 1 is clearly<br />
dependent upon the antecedent rainfall.
The contribut?.ng area at timeibt is A (fdk) and the total catchment area is A,.<br />
I assume that in eq.11 the second negative sign from the right in the numerator<br />
should in fact be positive, and <strong>with</strong> this interpretation I understand the<br />
assumption <strong>of</strong> eq. 11 to be that the contributing area expressed as a proportion<br />
<strong>of</strong> the total catchment area varies <strong>with</strong> the Nth power <strong>of</strong> a wetness index, which<br />
is obtained by the sumation up to the time under consideration <strong>of</strong> the proportion<br />
<strong>of</strong> the net rainfall in each previous time interval, weighted in an exponential<br />
manner according to remoteness in time. Later it is stated that this equation<br />
is subject to a constraint <strong>of</strong> continuity, that is, that the total effective<br />
rainfall is equal to the total discharge. It is not explained how khis condition<br />
is fulfilled but if eq. 11 is taken as a statement <strong>of</strong> proportionality rather than<br />
<strong>of</strong> equality, giving, therefore, the relative valuaat ail times <strong>of</strong> the contributing<br />
areas, the constant <strong>of</strong> proportionality may be chosen to satisfy the requirement<br />
<strong>of</strong> continuity.<br />
This is my interpretation <strong>of</strong> the authors'intention. The quantity<br />
B would seem to be a constant loss rate existing throughout the storm. I think,<br />
perhaps, the authors might like to clarify these few points and explain what<br />
happens if the rainfall intensity is less han B.<br />
The next step is to distribute the total contributing area A(7At) along the<br />
channel. <strong>of</strong> the catchment. The contributing area per unit length <strong>of</strong> channel<br />
At> is obtained under the following assumptions.<br />
1. Constant velocity at a given time throughout the catchment.<br />
2. Uniform distribution <strong>of</strong> drainage density.<br />
3. Uniform distribution throughout the catchment <strong>of</strong> first order streams.<br />
497
498<br />
Under these assumptions the total contributing area at any given time<br />
is distributed according to the distance (or time <strong>of</strong> flow) from the gauging site,<br />
in th? same way as tli? number <strong>of</strong> channels is distributed according to distance<br />
from the gauging site. Thus it is possible,on an examination <strong>of</strong> the stream<br />
system,to define the function al2 6 k) in space and time.<br />
The input <strong>of</strong> each reach, in each time element, is obtained by multiplying<br />
the appropriate contributing area by the net rainfall intensity (i.e. the<br />
total rainfall intensity minus the loss rate) and this input is routed through<br />
the channel system by a 1inear.method (Dooge and Harley) to give the output<br />
at the gauging station as a function <strong>of</strong> time.<br />
Because the routing is linear the output due to the input on a given reach<br />
could be represented by a convolution integral (but the kernel may vary from<br />
reach to reach). The total output as a function <strong>of</strong> time is obtained as the<br />
spatial integral <strong>of</strong> this convolution integral. The kernels themselves vary<br />
<strong>with</strong> stream slope, a reference discharge, and a roughness parameter.<br />
To reduce the complexity it is proposed to replace the actual stream network<br />
by a "folded up" one in which (I believe) all stream elements lying the same<br />
distance from the gauging site would be assumed equal to one another in the<br />
properties <strong>of</strong> length, roughness, slope and reference discharge. They would<br />
also agree, <strong>of</strong> course, in the depth <strong>of</strong> contributing area. It is mentioned later<br />
that the roughness and slope parameters are obtained by actual observation but<br />
it is not clear to me how this can be done in the idealised or "folded up" model.
The parameters <strong>of</strong> the model are:<br />
A catchment area<br />
D and N numerical parameters in eq. 1.1<br />
B the constant loss rate<br />
CZ the roughness coefficient (one parameter o<strong>nl</strong>y)<br />
QR the reference discharge (one parameter)<br />
SL the main charnel slope (one parameter)<br />
Subsequently in the work, the parameter B was set to zero and the area<br />
49 9<br />
and slope parameters were obtained by physical measurement (I think the authors<br />
might like to explain this a little further) the remaining parameters D,N, CZ<br />
and QR were obtained by optimisation.<br />
Details <strong>of</strong> the method are not given,<br />
nor are we told what sampling variance <strong>of</strong> the optimum values was obtained.<br />
We are told,however,that the model was insensitive to D (when D exceeded 0.5)<br />
and a fixed value <strong>of</strong> D = 0.8 was chosen. QR was found to vary o<strong>nl</strong>y slightly<br />
between 1.1 and 1.4 cubic meters per second for rainfall values ranging from<br />
2.5. to 14 milimeters. Thus o<strong>nl</strong>y N and CZ are left as free parameters.<br />
The model was applied to 13 basins in the eastern haî€ <strong>of</strong> the United<br />
'States and when.the optimised values had been obtained, relations were sought<br />
between these and the catchment characteristics, so that these relations could<br />
be used to provide estima'tes <strong>of</strong> the parameters values for use subsequently<br />
on wigauged catchments.<br />
N was found to vary <strong>with</strong> the ratio <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f to rainfall volumes for the<br />
storm according to authors eq. 8.<br />
# = esp (0.464- R,)/O.24L
500<br />
This ratio itself was found to vary between storms in accordance <strong>with</strong> the<br />
daily temperature, an index <strong>of</strong> soil permeability, rainfall volume, and maximum<br />
in t ens it y e<br />
CZ was significantly related to basin area, stream slope and the base<br />
flow value at the time <strong>of</strong> occurence <strong>of</strong> the storm.<br />
Using these relations between the model and the catchment to estimate<br />
the parameters <strong>of</strong> the former for insertion in the model which was subsequently<br />
fed <strong>with</strong>'the observed rainfall, good results were obtained, hydrograph peaks<br />
being reproduced <strong>with</strong> an error <strong>of</strong> the order <strong>of</strong> 20% in magnitude, and 10% in<br />
timing .
Monthly streamflow estimation from limited data<br />
by Haan.<br />
501<br />
The purpose <strong>of</strong> the exercise described in this paper is very similar to that<br />
in the paper by Deleur and Lee.<br />
monthly run<strong>of</strong>f from daily rainfall and the parameters are related to catchment<br />
characteristics by regression equations. The model is <strong>of</strong> the physical rather<br />
than the "black box" type according to the distinction <strong>of</strong> Deleur and Lee<br />
and according to the classification I have suggested, the problem is inverse<br />
non-linear lumped.<br />
A four parameter model is used to compute<br />
The structure <strong>of</strong> the model is not described but we are told that there<br />
are four parameters.<br />
fmax- maximum infiltration rate (cm-hr)<br />
-- maximum daily seepage loss (cm)<br />
'max<br />
c -- "the water holding capacity <strong>of</strong> that part <strong>of</strong> the soil, from<br />
which the evapo-transpiration rate is less than the potential<br />
rate, u<strong>nl</strong>ess this portion <strong>of</strong> the soil is saturated".<br />
F -- fraction <strong>of</strong> seepage that becomes run<strong>of</strong>f.<br />
s<br />
The input to the model is a series <strong>of</strong> daily rainfall values and average<br />
monthly values <strong>of</strong> potential evaporation (evapo-transpirat'ion).<br />
The optimisation is obtained by comparing computed and observed values<br />
<strong>of</strong> monthly discharges and summing the squares <strong>of</strong> the errors to obtain the<br />
objective function.<br />
in turn.<br />
The search is carried out along the axis <strong>of</strong> each parameter
502<br />
The model was.app1ied to 27 catchments in Kentucky and South Carolina and<br />
a four percent average error was found in the prediction <strong>of</strong> the annual discharge.<br />
This <strong>of</strong> course is not a very efficient test <strong>of</strong> the model. Details <strong>of</strong> the results<br />
obtained are not provided - in particular the estimates <strong>of</strong> the sampling variances<br />
<strong>of</strong> the optimum parameter values are not provided.<br />
To provide for ungauged catchments,regressions were sought for the optimum<br />
values <strong>of</strong> the parameters obtained from 17 catchments on certain characteristics<br />
<strong>of</strong> these catchments. The independent variables were 12 in number (see table 1<br />
<strong>of</strong> the paper) leaving, it would seem, o<strong>nl</strong>y 5 degrees <strong>of</strong> freedöm, though perhaps<br />
even this is an overestimate as covarience terms appear in the regression equations<br />
It would be interesting to learn how significant the coefficients in these<br />
equations appear to be.<br />
Having obtained the regression equation the model was applied to six<br />
catchments not used in obtaining the regressions. The model parameters were<br />
obtained from the regressions and the run<strong>of</strong>f simulated.<br />
the total run<strong>of</strong>f for the whole period varied from 1.8 to 11.8.<br />
do not indicate how the model performed over shorter periods, for example <strong>of</strong><br />
one year, one month, peak flows, etc.,etc..<br />
Percentage errors for<br />
These figures<br />
On a single catchment the effects <strong>of</strong> different methods <strong>of</strong> parameter<br />
estimation are explored.<br />
regression equations asd a percentage error (in the total flow?) <strong>of</strong> 8.64%<br />
observed.<br />
increased this figure to 10.13% and when 2 or 3 years <strong>of</strong> records were so used<br />
figures <strong>of</strong> 2.19 and 9.38 were found.<br />
one.<br />
Firstly, the parameters are estimated from the<br />
Optimisation <strong>of</strong> the parameters in the first year <strong>of</strong> record surprisingly<br />
The last optimisation was a rather curious<br />
The parameters were first obtained through optimisation in the first years
ecord and the remaining 21 years Of Output simulated. Next the worst two <strong>of</strong><br />
these years, from the point Of View Of agreement between computed and observed<br />
outputs, were noted and the parameters optimised.again,independently in the<br />
records <strong>of</strong> these two years.<br />
averages <strong>of</strong> the two sets weighted according to the sum <strong>of</strong> deviations <strong>of</strong><br />
observed and simulated flows.<br />
The final parameters were taken as weighted<br />
using these final values <strong>of</strong> the model parameters was made the observed<br />
error in the total discharge was o<strong>nl</strong>y 0.56%.<br />
503<br />
When the simulation for the full period <strong>of</strong> record
504<br />
"Obtaining <strong>of</strong> Deficient Information by solving inverse problems for Mathematics<br />
Run<strong>of</strong>f Models" by Koren and Kutchment.<br />
The authÒrs'definition <strong>of</strong> an inverse problem is in agreement <strong>with</strong> %hat which<br />
1 have been using.<br />
problems and mention the lack <strong>of</strong> uniqueness <strong>of</strong> the solutions obtained by<br />
postulating the form <strong>of</strong> the operation and adjusting the coefficient or parameters<br />
by trial and error.<br />
Tikonev which restores the proper posing <strong>of</strong> the problem and limits the possible<br />
variation <strong>of</strong> the solution in accordance <strong>with</strong> "a priori" information on the<br />
s o lu t ion.<br />
They explain the difficulty <strong>of</strong> obtaining solutions to such<br />
Instead they propose the application <strong>of</strong> an algorithm due to<br />
Unfortunately, I am not familiar <strong>with</strong> the sources quoted and my interpretatio<br />
<strong>of</strong> the method derives solely fromthe present paper.<br />
I would hope the authors<br />
would forgive me if I misinterpret their intention and I would hope that, if<br />
at all possible, time should be provided to allow them to correct me and explain<br />
sezral points <strong>of</strong> difficulty which I stil1,o<strong>nl</strong>y very imperfectly,understand.<br />
The method involves the algebraic minimisation <strong>of</strong> an objective funtion and<br />
is akin to Lagrange's method <strong>of</strong> undertermined multipliers.<br />
Consider a function F(h) where h is a vector .hl,h2...and suppose<br />
we wish to minimise F(h) subject to a constraint on h, e.g.T(h) = O.<br />
Lagrange's method states that the conditional minimum <strong>of</strong> F(h) occurs at the<br />
same h ao the unconditional minimum <strong>of</strong> G(h,a) where
G(h,oc) a F(h) +- 9th) (is 1<br />
A formal algebraic pro<strong>of</strong> is possible but scarcely necessary.<br />
constraint cp(i-i) = O the functions G(h,*) and F(h)<br />
Along the<br />
are identical and therefore<br />
their (conditional) minima agree. But the unconditional minimum <strong>of</strong> G(h,a)<br />
obtained by differentiating G(h,ch) <strong>with</strong> respect to h a ndu and simultaneously<br />
equating the derivatives to zero, implies q(h) = O or the general (unconditional)<br />
and conditional minima <strong>of</strong> G(h,a) agree.<br />
<strong>of</strong> C(h,5) gives the value <strong>of</strong> h which corresponds the conditional minimum <strong>of</strong> F(h).<br />
An optimum value for a is also found.<br />
to be an adaptation rather than the straightforward use <strong>of</strong> this method. A<br />
series <strong>of</strong> values <strong>of</strong> the vector h which minimise G(h,@) for a series <strong>of</strong> values<br />
<strong>of</strong> agradually increasing from zero toward the optimum (SC are found by<br />
opt<br />
differentiating. The first <strong>of</strong> these vectors h (corresponding to = O) corresponds<br />
505<br />
to the unconditional minimum <strong>of</strong> F(h). The last (corresponding toca*<br />
opt<br />
corresponds to the conditional minimum (i.e. to the constraint fully implemented)<br />
and the intermediate solutions correspond to the partial implementation <strong>of</strong> the<br />
constraint.<br />
Consequently the unconditional minimum<br />
The method used by the authors would seem<br />
in this way the investigator is enabled to seek about in the vicinity <strong>of</strong> the<br />
optimum h for one which provides a reasonable compromise between satisfying the<br />
constraints and minimising the function.<br />
in the three examples quoted in the paper the physical problem is reduced,<br />
in one case after the application <strong>of</strong> much ingenuity, to the solution <strong>of</strong> a set <strong>of</strong><br />
linear algebraic eqs.<br />
4<br />
Q =AZ (I 6)<br />
Where Q and h are vectors and A a rectangular matrix. Assuming redundancy among<br />
the equations a least squares solution could be found by minimising<br />
F(h) 5 /I Ph- all"<br />
(I 7J
506<br />
As shown by Snyder, the solution <strong>of</strong> this equation is<br />
A*Ah = A*Q (12)<br />
or h = (A*A)-l A*Q (1 9)<br />
In the inverse problem, in the hydrological context (e.g. h is the impulse<br />
response or the input to a linear system) this equation is <strong>of</strong>ten badly conditioned<br />
and the h obtained may be seriously distorted by small errors..in Q or A.<br />
In particular, h may fail to conform to some physical requirements (e.g. unit<br />
area or smoothness <strong>of</strong> the impulse response). The authors method is to minimise<br />
i.e., to find h from<br />
(A*A+ aE)h = A* Q (where i? is the unit matrix)<br />
<strong>with</strong> preselected values <strong>of</strong> e(presumab1y increasing from zero.<br />
Obviously the smaller the value <strong>of</strong> q the more /lh112 is permitted to increase<br />
and therefore increasing q corresponds to increasing the permissible fluctuation<br />
in h.<br />
Presumably a selection is then made between the several h, bearing in<br />
mind that the nearer oi is to zero the nearer h is to the least squares solution<br />
<strong>of</strong> the equation.<br />
It is clear that the constraint need not be precisely stated. It is sufficiei<br />
that the coefficient <strong>of</strong> arepresents some quantity which increases <strong>with</strong> the<br />
undesirable property <strong>of</strong> h.<br />
the Lagrangian method would probably be the better.<br />
If the constraint can be precisely stated,e.g.rh = 1,<br />
Of the three examples quoted by the authors, the first involves finding the<br />
effective rainfall input given the impulse response and the discharge.<br />
problem as we have seen is identical (even in the constraint) to that <strong>of</strong> finding<br />
the unit hydrograph given the input and output. The authors mentioned various<br />
The
constraints includkigrh = 1 which would yield<br />
9 =Ikh-QI\ + aZh<br />
and a smoothness constraint /h/ yielding<br />
=Ih-Q/I + ec )I hl<br />
Straightforward application <strong>of</strong> Lagrange s method would <strong>of</strong> course yield h = O<br />
which would be useless. The solutions for lesser values <strong>of</strong> &would permit h # O<br />
2<br />
while restraining /h// .<br />
The second problem discussed by the authors is that <strong>of</strong> discovering the<br />
coefficients <strong>of</strong> the Saint-Venant eqs. for flow-in open channels<br />
- .II<br />
;; = $+$*&(e)<br />
as +Fk<br />
+i&($)<br />
507<br />
(d<br />
= 0 )<br />
This problem arises in, for example, flood routing, where it is impracticable<br />
to measure the conveyance and areal relations K(z,x) and F(z,x) for each<br />
cross section.<br />
from observations made on the discharges and waterlevels as functions <strong>of</strong> space<br />
and time, Q=Q(x,t) and z=z(x,t), during the passage <strong>of</strong> a particular flood.<br />
ûnce.these relations have been established they may be used directly in subsequent<br />
routing operations.<br />
Instead, smoothed values <strong>of</strong> these functions may be obtained<br />
The continuity equation integrated <strong>with</strong> respect to x, provides<br />
Q(x, t >-Q(o, t 1 = & F (i,, t 1%<br />
where 7) is a dummy variable along the length x.<br />
In ?finite difference form,<br />
this equation applied to a reach <strong>of</strong> channel from K=O to K=i, becomes<br />
f$ (j+l, k 1 + F (j+l, k+l 1-F (j , k 1-F ( j , k+l)]<br />
I< :<br />
It.<br />
~~Q:q(j+l,o) + Q(j+i,i) - Q(j,il-Ki,od<br />
where j and k refer to time and space, respectively.
508<br />
The authors state that this eq. maybe arranged as<br />
-?+<br />
AF = Q<br />
one such equation existing for each discrete time and the vectors running, as it<br />
were, along the channel.<br />
It would seem that 2); has been omitted, but even allowing for this, I cannc<br />
express eq. 24 in this form. Nor does it seem to me that eq. 25 is redundant.<br />
It would certai<strong>nl</strong>y be interesting to have this point cleared up, but I think we<br />
can all accept that the finite difference equation can somehow be reduced to a<br />
set <strong>of</strong> linear equations between the changes in time in F(x) and in distance iii<br />
Q(>r). Such a set <strong>of</strong> equations would apply for one instant o<strong>nl</strong>y and would take<br />
the form <strong>of</strong><br />
The authors apply the algorithm already expiained,<strong>with</strong> the constraint that<br />
Ik-FOIr, where F is an initial estimate <strong>of</strong> F<br />
0-<br />
0)<br />
is minimised for<br />
With regard<br />
chosena's by solving<br />
Q@,F,) = //AF-Q 11 +a IIP-gI<br />
(A*A+aE )F=A*Q+ a EP<br />
is kept small,<br />
(27<br />
to choosinga the authors mention the "method <strong>of</strong> discrepancy" whit<br />
I don't quite understand, nor can I see how the smooth variation <strong>of</strong> P <strong>with</strong> time<br />
can be insured, as P(x) seems to De found independently for each time step.'<br />
Perhaps in calculating F the values <strong>of</strong> F obtained .in the previous time step may bc<br />
used in the algorithm for F and thus, by constraining //F-Fo1\2 the change in F<br />
O<br />
is distributed regularly over all x's.<br />
Having found, P(x,t), thus, from the continuity equation, and having z(x,t)<br />
C=
already, F(x,z) can be found.<br />
The dynamic equation is similarly used to find K(x,t) and hence K(x,z).<br />
Details are not given by the authors but the computation would seem to be<br />
quite independent <strong>of</strong> the Computation <strong>of</strong> P(x,t,).<br />
in their thikd and final exmple the authors deal <strong>with</strong> the same equations<br />
but Pith different boundary conditions.<br />
discharges are known as functions <strong>of</strong> time, o<strong>nl</strong>y at the beginning and the end<br />
<strong>of</strong> the channel reach, i.e. Q(o,t) and Q(L,t).are known.<br />
z(x,t) is known.<br />
case.<br />
This time they assume 'that the<br />
509<br />
They assume also that<br />
These conditions are more parsimonious than in the former<br />
The difference between the discharges at the ends <strong>of</strong> the channel reach<br />
is related to the rate afincrease in storage in the channel by the continuity<br />
The right hand side is a single known quantity for sach t he step and may<br />
thus be expressed as a vector in time.<br />
The left hand side, because <strong>of</strong> the<br />
integration <strong>with</strong> respect to x, is also a vector in th(unknown).<br />
Assume that P(x,t) can be expressed as a smooth function <strong>of</strong> space and<br />
time by a Chebishev polynomial.<br />
Ex;>anded, this would be an ordinary polynominal in x and z and in xz <strong>with</strong><br />
constant coefficients depending on Aks.
510<br />
To evaluate the coefficients, P(x,z) could be inserted in eq.29 but as this<br />
is a difference equation Li P, the solution would be underdetermined at least<br />
to the extent <strong>of</strong> the arbitrary constant. Instead <strong>of</strong> using F, the authors use<br />
the top width B(x,z) and.expand this in x and z as<br />
I€ there are m by n t e m in the expansion <strong>of</strong> B(x,z),there will be m by n<br />
unknown coefficients A and,therefore,at least this number <strong>of</strong> equations in<br />
ks<br />
the form <strong>of</strong> eq.29 must be found. This can be done by taking sufficient time<br />
intervals in the rising and falling hydrograph and evaluating the right hand<br />
side <strong>of</strong> eq.29 accordingly to yield xl,x2,X3, .<br />
For every k and s the quantity<br />
is known for every.x and t and the integral <strong>with</strong> respect to x can therefore be<br />
found.<br />
Hence the coefficients <strong>of</strong> every A in eq.29 after substitution<br />
k.9<br />
can be written down yielding.<br />
%st 'ks<br />
(3 21<br />
= Xt and this can be arranged in matrix form, if (33)<br />
necessary, and I think it would be necessary, <strong>with</strong> Akis written in vector form<br />
A,l, Ak2, Ak3, ............. Thus the linear equation in the unknown A would<br />
ks<br />
be obtained as<br />
0 Q =x 9<br />
where $ is the matrix <strong>of</strong> the coefficients Cks in eq. 33 and the solution for<br />
9<br />
8 the vector <strong>of</strong> unknown A,s found by application <strong>of</strong> the algorithm.<br />
(Sf 1<br />
(Q* FBI0 = 9*x @a<br />
In this case, the constraint imposed is 191 small. The choice afa(and<br />
therefore <strong>of</strong> e) seems to be made at the value <strong>of</strong>awhere a further change<br />
inawould produce o<strong>nl</strong>y a minhum change in 8 expressed by eq.36.
Y<br />
(c = 2 p(QP+,) -<br />
J- I<br />
Once F(x,z) has been determined, and remembering that we have already<br />
z(x,t), K(x,z) can be found from the dynamic equation simplified to<br />
and, thus, all the parameters <strong>of</strong> the equation are available. I cannot quite<br />
follow the authors explanation <strong>of</strong> this part <strong>of</strong> the project.<br />
511<br />
be some subtleties here which I am missing,but I can see no particular difficulty<br />
in solving it along the lines I have indicated.<br />
There may<br />
This is an extremely interesting though difficult paper and I hope the<br />
authors will be available to correct iy very inadequate exposition <strong>of</strong> it and<br />
perhaps resolve some <strong>of</strong> the difficulties which I have mentioned and others<br />
which may be tròuhling other colleagues.<br />
References<br />
(1) Snyder, W., Tennessee Valley Authority (1961)<br />
"Matrix operations in hydrograph computations"<br />
(2) O'Donnell T., (1960) 'Instantaneous unit hydrograph derivation by harmonic<br />
analysis'IASH (Helsinki) Pub No 51<br />
(3) Kraijenh<strong>of</strong> van de Leur, D.A., "A study <strong>of</strong> non-steady ground water flow <strong>with</strong><br />
special reference dto a reservoir coefficient"<br />
De Ingenieur , 70(19 1 (1 93 8 1.<br />
(4) Venetis C. "Estimating infiltration and/or the parameters <strong>of</strong> unconfined<br />
aquifers from ground water level observations" Jour Hyd. 12(1971)
ABSTRACT<br />
DONNEES INADEQUATES ET MODELES MATHEMATIQUES<br />
DE LA POLLUTION EN RIVIERE<br />
Par J.BERNIER<br />
Laboratoire National d'Hydraulique<br />
CHATOU - France<br />
The value <strong>of</strong> I'inadequate1l information must be judged<br />
relatively to the mathematical tools used and the practical problem<br />
to be solved, Concerning river pollution where the problem is to<br />
design projects as sewage treatment plants for instance, the<br />
limitation <strong>of</strong> the usual Information collected in situ is shown,<br />
These limitations do no appear <strong>with</strong> the standard math.ematjca1 model.<br />
Taking in account <strong>of</strong> more realistic stochastic model allows us to<br />
measure the value <strong>of</strong> this information and to design experiment for<br />
collecting acceptable data,<br />
RESUME<br />
La valeur de l'information inadequate doit être jugee en<br />
fonction des problèmes à rbsoudre et des outils mathématiques utili-<br />
sês pour cette résolution, En matière de pollution en rivière où il<br />
s'agit de dêfinir les caractdristiques des moyens de lutte comme<br />
celles des stations dlspuration par exemple, on montre les limita-<br />
tions de l'information usuellement recueillie in situ, Ces limita-<br />
tions n'apparaissent pas avec les modèles mathgrnatiques standard,<br />
La prise en compte de modèles stochastiques plus réalistes permet<br />
de mesurer la valeur de cette information et de definir les condi-<br />
tions de collecte de données acceptables,
51 4<br />
I - INTRODUCTION<br />
En matière d'aménagement des ressources en eau, l'insuffisance<br />
des données est souvent le premier écueil auquel on se heurte. Cependant<br />
pour mieux apprécier la validité et la précision des réponses aux questions<br />
posées à l'hydrologue ou l'ingénieur, il faut noter que cette insuffisance<br />
de données n'est en fait que le reflet de l'inadéquation des inhthodes uti-<br />
lisées pour résoudre les problèmes. Ces méthodes doivent etre adaptées ><br />
la nature de l'information disponible ou 2 recueillir. Certes dans bien<br />
des cas les données disponibles doivent être coiilplétées mais l'organisa-<br />
tion de la collecte des données complémentaires, le choix des conditions<br />
opératoires de mesures ne peuvent valablement être &finis qu'en fonction<br />
des méthodes iiiobilisant l'inforination recueillie. Dans ce contexte, certai-<br />
nes iitéthodes usuelles sont particulièreiiient inadéquates. On peut en trouver<br />
des exemples dans le domaine de la pollution en rivière notamment dans<br />
l'étude du inouverrient et des réactions auxquels sont soumises des matières<br />
polluantes en riviere 2 l'aval d'un point de rejet en vue d'apprécier la<br />
capacité d'autoépuration de la rivière compte tenu de ce rejet. Nous trai-<br />
terons ici du seul problème de la pollution biochiinique'caractbris6e par<br />
le bilan d'oxygène.<br />
II - LA METHODE USUELLE<br />
La méthode classique utilise le modèle de Streeter et Phelps<br />
décrivant le bilan dynamique d'oxygène sous la forme de deux équations<br />
différentielles (voir la liste de notations en fin de note).<br />
J
515<br />
Mises sous forme intégrale et en faisant apparaître l'abscisse<br />
longitudinale x prise le long de la rivière et liée au teiiips d'écouìe-<br />
2<br />
nient t et à la vitesse moyenne du courant u pa; t = - , les équa-<br />
tions donnent :<br />
L(x) = Lo e<br />
X<br />
-K3 u<br />
X<br />
- K -<br />
B (x) =ao e ~ ~ ( 2 u -e e<br />
OÙd (x) est le déficit en oxygène : 3 = Cs - C.<br />
U<br />
'J - Kg U)<br />
Ainsi peut-on mesurer l'incidence d'un rejet (spécifiant les<br />
concentrations initiales d'oxygène Co et de demande biologique en<br />
oxygène L ) sur l'autoépuration à l'aval.<br />
La mise en oeuvre courante de ce iiiodèle demande l'estimation<br />
préalable des coefficienb de reoxygénation K2 et de biodégradation K<br />
1<br />
et K3.<br />
On utilise généraleinent des formules empiriques ou quelques observations<br />
recueillies dans le tronçon de rivière étudié. Les multiples formules<br />
empiriques disponibles établies en laboratoire ou sur des rivières de<br />
caractéristiques biochimiques particulieres présentent des résultats<br />
extre'mement dispersés difficilement extrapolables hors des limites du<br />
doniaine où elles ont été établies. I1 reste l'inforniation recueillie<br />
dans chaque cas d'espèce. A la limite Kg et K2 peuvent ëtre calculés<br />
par l'intermédiaire des formules (2) en fonction d'un seul couple d'ob-<br />
servations amont (Lo, Co) et d'un seul couple aval ( L(x), C(x)). Une<br />
telle procédure, trop souvent utilisée pratiquement, est justifiée dans<br />
le contexte du modèle déterministe strict décrit par (2) mais ce carac-<br />
tère déterministe est extrêmement fallacieux come nous allons le voir.<br />
Par ailleurs il importe de se soucier de la cohérence spatiale des mesures,<br />
le décalage des époques d'observations a l'amont et à l'aval devraient<br />
tenir compte du temps d'écoulement t . En pratique cette condition iinpé-<br />
rative est rarement respectée et la non prise en compte de la menie masse<br />
d'eau 2 l'amont et à l'aval entrarne une dispersion notable des observations<br />
et des estimations erronées de KI, K2 et Ka.
516<br />
III - INSUFFISANCES DU MODELE DETERMINISTE DE STREETER ET PHELPS<br />
Le modèle (i), (2) schéiuatise l'hydraulique de l'écoulement :<br />
celui-ci est supposé permanent, uniforme ; de plus on néglige la disper-<br />
sion de polluants dissous ou en suspension dans l'eau imputable au phéno-<br />
mène de diffusion turbulente et aux fluctuations de vitesse dans chaque<br />
section. Cependant l'effet de cette dispersion est surtout notable en<br />
régime transitoire et devient négligeable en régime de pollution permanent<br />
ou lorsque cette pollution (caractérisée par L et CI présente une évo-<br />
lution lente, d ms le cas de rivière à coefficient de dispersion faible<br />
(cf. [i] et [2] ).<br />
L'inadéquation en nature du modèle de Streeter et Phelps provient<br />
surtout des hypothèses caractérisant les phénomènes biochimiques :<br />
- prise en compte de la seule phase carbonée des réactions de<br />
dégradation des matières organiques (non prise en compte de<br />
la phase azotée) ;<br />
- non prise en compte des effets de la photosynthèse de la respi-<br />
ration des boues de fonds, de la sédimentation des matières<br />
polluantes etc ...<br />
Certaines tentatives [a] ont été faites pour inventorier et<br />
modeliser plus completement les phénomènes mais la multiplicité des para-<br />
. .<br />
mètres et les difficultés pratiques d'estimation de ces paraniètres rendent<br />
illusoire l'apparente précision qui semblerait résulter d'un inventaire<br />
exhaustif des mécanismes biologiques et physico-chimiques.<br />
Par ailleurs si les concentrations en oxygène dissous peuvent<br />
être mesurées in situ avec une précision acceptable, il n'en est pas de<br />
même de la demande biologique en oxygène qui n'est pas estimée directement<br />
mais seulement par 1 l intermédiaire d'un test chiriiique, la DB05, effectué<br />
au laboratoire sur des échantillons prélevés en rivière. Des essais ont<br />
montré que l'imprécision de ce test est notable et que la chaîne complexe<br />
des conditions opératoires, depuis le prélèvement en riviere jusqu'a<br />
1 'analyse chimique en laboratoire introduit des erreurs systématiques et<br />
aléatoires importantes. On ne peut donc considérer cette DBO comme une<br />
5<br />
mesure exacte de la consommation d'oxygène in situ mais comme un index<br />
représentatif de cette consommation en plus ou moins bonne comélation<br />
statistique avec elle.
IV - UN MODELE STOCHASTIQUE<br />
517<br />
I1 est classique en statistique de prendre en compte globalement<br />
l'ensemble des phénomènes négligés dans un modèle déterministe schématique<br />
sous foriiie determes d'erreurs aléatoires. Cette conception permet d'intro-<br />
duire la souplesse nécessaire à une bonne adéquation du modèle aux données<br />
d'observations en nature. Les équations (1) sont remplacées pour un sys-<br />
teme différentiel stochastique :<br />
Les paramètres pl et p2 représentent les irioyennes, c'est-à-dire la<br />
2<br />
part systématique. des erreurs dues aux phénoiiiènes négligési o12 et u2<br />
représentent les variances des termes d'erreurs. E, et .C2 sont alors<br />
les erreurs centrées réduites (de moyenne nulle et de variances égales à 1).<br />
Dans ce contexte aléatoire, les paramètres K1, K2, K3 peuvent<br />
être interpréter coime les coefficients de la régression statistique des<br />
variations de concentrations en fonction des grandeurs<br />
L etd et ils<br />
ont une signification statistique plutôt que physique. On peut alors rem-<br />
placer l'index DB05 par tout autre index qui soit en corrélation avec<br />
la demande en oxygène (par exemple : demande chiiiiique en oxygène, carbone<br />
organique total, etc... indexes qui sont plus aisément mesurables que la<br />
DB05). I1 est possible d'intégrer le système ( 3) (cf. [ 41 1. En adinettant<br />
des conditions initiales fixées et go au point origine x = O, on<br />
LO<br />
peut montrer que L(t) et3 (t) sont des variables aléatoires quasi-<br />
gaussiennes dont les espérances niathémat iques et variances sont :<br />
E (L) =<br />
- P2 + (Lo - -) P2 e<br />
K2 Kg<br />
- K3 t<br />
E(d)=-t- Pi<br />
K1<br />
P2<br />
K2 Kg<br />
pci +- '1<br />
- K3-K2<br />
P2<br />
(Lo - -)I<br />
K2<br />
-Kpt<br />
e<br />
+-í-<br />
K1 P2<br />
- K3t<br />
-Lo) e<br />
K3-K2 K3<br />
(4)<br />
(5)
v -<br />
518<br />
Var (LI =<br />
- 2 K3t<br />
v22 (i - e 1<br />
2 2<br />
2 u2 t ui r,<br />
Var ($1 = ( u1 +<br />
2<br />
(K~-K~) K3-K2<br />
formules dans lesquelles<br />
erreurs Cl et E,.<br />
K3<br />
- 2 K t<br />
(i - e 3 )<br />
Kg<br />
- 2 K,t<br />
(i - e 1<br />
K2<br />
K1<br />
(u u r+-<br />
K3-K2 1 2 K3-K2<br />
(i - e 1<br />
Kg +<br />
K2<br />
(7)<br />
r est le coefficient de corrélation entre les<br />
LE MODELE STOCHASTIQUE AVEC ERREURS DE MESURES SUR L et d<br />
Connie nous l'avons déjà souligné, 1' inadéquation du iiiodèle aux<br />
données in situ est liée également aux erreurs de mesures importantes sur<br />
ces données. Pour analyser plus complèteinent le problèiiie, il importe de<br />
préciser les conditions d'observations. Nous ne traiterons ici que de la<br />
méthode usuelle OU l'on observe deux points amont x et aval distants<br />
de x = - xcI.<br />
écrit :<br />
Compte tenu des foririules (4) à (7) le modèle intégré peut être<br />
en regroupant sous forine des constantes a et b les termes indépendants<br />
des conditions initiales dans les espérances inathématiques et sous forme<br />
des constantes p1, p2, p3 les coefficients de Lo et do. Les variables<br />
aléatoires d'écart EL et I!& ont alors des variances u et u2 données<br />
L<br />
par les formules (6) et (7) et qui sont donc indépendantes de ces conditions<br />
2<br />
=2
initiales. En fait ce que l'on observe n'est pas directement<br />
mis deux grandeurs X et Y telles que :<br />
X=L+ 7)<br />
1<br />
Y =a + 7)<br />
2<br />
519<br />
L ou 3<br />
où Il e; 7)2 sont les erreurs de mesures aléatoires de variances respec-<br />
2<br />
tives VL et Va . L'estiiriation in situ des parainetres du modèle stochas-<br />
tique et notanunent des vitesses de reoxygénation et de biodégradation<br />
K2 '<br />
K et K3 , demande la connaissance préalable des variances d'erreurs de<br />
1<br />
mesures. De façon précise on supposera qu'ont été obtenus n ensembles<br />
de grandeurs observables (Xoy X1, Yo, Y<br />
1<br />
) aux deux points amont et aval<br />
du tronçon de rivière considérée. Les paramètres statistiques de ces cou-<br />
_ - - -<br />
2 2 2 2<br />
ples (moyennes Xo, XI' Yo YI , variances S x0, S x13 S yo, S y1 , et<br />
covariances<br />
S&xl3 Sx0y1, etc ... ) permettent l'estimation des coefficients<br />
du inodele au moyen des relations :<br />
P, = sxlxo<br />
2 2<br />
SX, - VL<br />
- -<br />
a = X1 - p 3 Xo<br />
(10)<br />
(12)
520<br />
VI - LE PROBLEME DES ERREURS D'ECHANTILLONNAGE<br />
Dans la plupartdes cas pratiques l'estimation des paramètres du<br />
modèle d'oxygène ne peut être effectuée que sur un nombre<br />
n de répéti-<br />
tions d'observations assez liiriité. I1 importe alors de iiiesurer la précision<br />
de ces estimations par leurs variances d'échantillonnage. Nous ne pouvons<br />
ici développer l'ensemble des formules, nous renvoyons le lecteur à [2]<br />
pour un aperçu sur le problème. En expriniant les divers paramètres comme<br />
des fonctions des variances et covariances<br />
les formules précédentes peuvent permettre le calcul approché de ces va-<br />
riances d'échantillonnages à partir de celles des variances et covariances<br />
estimées (cf. [ 51 ). En ce qui concerne notaniiiient les paramètres pi qui<br />
déterminent les vitesses des réactions biochiiriiques , on aura des formules<br />
de la foriiie :<br />
VI1 - VALEUR DE L'INFORMATION RECUEILLIE EN NATURE<br />
S2<br />
XO<br />
2<br />
S yl, Sxoxl, etc ...<br />
Pour la suite de la discussion il est conimode d'appeler variances<br />
2<br />
d'erreurs d'adéquation du inodele les paramètres uL , mg2 car leur valeur<br />
est liée à l'importance de l'explication des variations d'oxygène dissous<br />
par les paramètres<br />
C, DB05 ... pris en compte. L'interprétation des<br />
variances d'échantillonnages, perinet de préciser le noiiibre d'observations n<br />
nécessaires à l'obtention d'une précision d'estiniation donnée ; on pourra<br />
observer généralement la loi générale de l'augmentation de n en fonction :<br />
- des valeurs croissantes de l'erreur d'adéquation .<br />
- des valeurs croissantes de l'erreur de mesure.<br />
Quels que soient les paramètres de pollution pris en compte, quelles que<br />
soient les procédures opératoires de mesures, il restera toujours des<br />
erreurs d'adéquation et de mesure irréductibles. Dans de telles circons-<br />
tances, on ne peut utiliser les procédures classiques d'estimation des<br />
modèles d'oxygène supposés déterministes et qui n'utilisent que des infor-<br />
mations trop partielles. réduites trop souvent 2 un unique ensemble des<br />
4 valeurs Xo, Yo, XI, Y1. I1 est absolument indispensable de faire des<br />
mesures répétitives en nombre n suffisant. Le modèle stochastique est
alors un guide précieux pour la planification de la collecte de cette<br />
information et des procédures opératoires de mesures.<br />
521<br />
Placé devant un problème de décision, le gestionnaire de la qua-<br />
lité de l'eau d'une rivière aura donc a sa disposition des observations<br />
cohérentes recueillies in situ ; mais ce n'est pas la seule source d'in-<br />
formations disponible. Le gestionnaire dispose également de données plus<br />
ou moins qualitatives sur les vitesses de réactions, de forinules semiempiriques<br />
diverses [ 61 dont la dispersion des résultats est telle qu'elle<br />
ne peut. donner que des ordres de grandeurs assez grossiers. Une telle<br />
information est cependant précieuse si elle permet de réduire le nornbre<br />
d'observations in situ. La disposition d'un modèle stochastique permet<br />
l'utilisation des méthodes bayésiennes [7] , [a] dont le but est l'incor-<br />
poration des inforiiiations de diverses origines dans un modèle quantifié.<br />
Davis, Kisiel et Duckstein [E] ont montré tout l'intérêt de ces techniques<br />
appliquées ?i l'étude des risques,associées aux décisions en matière de<br />
gestion des ressources en eau et au calcul de la valeur économique de<br />
l'information hydrologique qui tend à réduire ces risques. Ia prise en<br />
compte d'un modèle stochastique est la première étape de l'approche déci-<br />
sionnelle dans les problèmes de qualité de l'eau.
522<br />
c :<br />
N O T A T I O N S<br />
concentration en oxygène dissous,<br />
concentration en oxygène dissous 2 la saturation<br />
Cs - C déficit en oxygène<br />
DB05 : demande biologique en oxygène mesurée au laboratoire sur 5 jours<br />
à la température de 2OoC sur un échantillon supposé représentatif<br />
de la rivière<br />
K1 : coefficient de consoinmation d'oxygène dans le modèle de Streeter -<br />
Phelps<br />
coefficient de réoxygénation<br />
K2 :<br />
K3 : coefficient de dégradation de la DBO restante<br />
L : deniande biologique en oxygène restante<br />
x : abscisse longitudinale de la rivière<br />
u : vitesse moyenne de l'écoulement.<br />
moyenne par section de rivière<br />
L
B I B L I O G R A P H I E<br />
[i ] W.E. DOBBINS : BOD and Oxygen relationships in streams<br />
Froc. ASCE Sanit Div. S A 3 - 1964<br />
[2]<br />
523<br />
J. BERNIER - P. LENCIONI : Utilisation d'un modèle stochastique pour<br />
organiser 13 collecte in situ des données de qualité<br />
de l'eau d'une rivière - 15ème Congrès de 1'A.I.R.H.<br />
Ictainboul 1973.<br />
[3] D. LEFORT : Modèles mathérriatiques de pollution en riviere -<br />
La Houille Blanche - nuiiiéro spécial 8/1971<br />
[4] D.R. COX - H.D. MILLER : The theory <strong>of</strong> stochastic processes<br />
Methuen - 1965<br />
[ 5 ] T.W. ANDERSON : An introduction to multivariate statistical analysis<br />
Wiley - 1958<br />
[6]<br />
M. NEGULESCU - V. ROJANSKI : Recent Research to determine reaeration<br />
[ 71 J. BERNIER<br />
[ 81<br />
coefficient - <strong>Water</strong> Research - Vol 3 no 3 - 1969<br />
: Les méthodes bayésiennes en hydrologie statistique.<br />
Froc. Intern. <strong>Hydrology</strong> Symp. Colorado State Univer-<br />
sity - Fort Collins - 1967<br />
D.R. DAVIS - C.C. KISIEL - L. DUCKSTEIN : Bayesian Decision Theory<br />
applied to design in <strong>Hydrology</strong> - <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong><br />
Research - Vol 8 no 1 - 1972.
"REGIONAL GROUNDWATER RECHARGE ESTIMATES VIA METEOROLOGICAL DATA"<br />
ABSTRACT<br />
SAMUEL P.COOK AND SAMUEL G,MBURU<br />
In arid regions the planning <strong>of</strong> agricultural development<br />
requires estimates <strong>of</strong> the availability <strong>of</strong> groundwater, Adequate<br />
detailed data bases are u<strong>nl</strong>ikely to exist in most areas <strong>of</strong> interest<br />
in developing countries, We have attempted to compute the<br />
groundwater recharge potential for East Africa using primarily the<br />
available meteorological data, The procedure has been to generate<br />
a synthetic year by averaging the meteorological data for each<br />
month at each meteorological site over a period <strong>of</strong> years, Then from<br />
the monthly precipitation, the estimated evapotranspiration and the<br />
estimated run <strong>of</strong>f is subtracted, This computation proceeds according<br />
to an assumed soil moisture storage and transport model whose<br />
throughput constitutes the potential groundwater recharge, Contour<br />
lines <strong>of</strong> this cuantity are plotted and these can serve as a guide<br />
to rural planners for optimizing the selection <strong>of</strong> sites for new<br />
development,<br />
RESUME<br />
Aux regions arides quand on fait un plan du development agri-<br />
cole il faut evaluer l'eau souterraine desponible, I1 est tres peu<br />
probably qu'on trouve les donnees de base assez detaillees dans la<br />
plupart des regions en observation aux pays que son en train de se<br />
developper. On a essayé de computer le potentiel de la recharge des<br />
?aux souterraines pour les pays en Afrique de l'Est en utilisont,<br />
?rincipalement, les données meteorologique disponibles, On a produit<br />
sne ann&e des donnges synthetìques en faìsant la moyenne les<br />
ionnêes meteorologiqueo pour chaque mois a chaque hstallatlon meteo-<br />
nologique pendant une periode des annêes, Puis on a soustrait de la<br />
>recipitation mensuelle, l'evaluation de ltevapotranspirat2on et de<br />
L'ecoulement total, Cette computation continue suivant un modele<br />
;uppose de la capacité de l'eau et du transport de l'eau dans le sol<br />
lui evalue le potentiel de la recharge de l'eau souterraine. Les<br />
:ourbes de niveau de cette quantite sont tracées et les organisateurs<br />
lu developpement rural peuvent s'en regler pour optimiser la<br />
;election des situations pour des projets neufs.
526<br />
At the East African Agriculture and Forestry Research<br />
Organization we are interested in estimating regional groundwater<br />
recharge rates to provide basia information for agricultural<br />
planning. Our approach is based on a water balance calculation. The<br />
gmundwater recharge is the residual which reinains after subtracting<br />
from the precipitation the losses due to evaporation and surface and<br />
subsurface run-<strong>of</strong>f. The total precipitation can be computed reasonably<br />
well from the rainfall records. The remaining terms can be estimated.<br />
T. Woodhead, 1. Dagg and D.A. Rijks (1, 2, 3, 4) have<br />
studied extensively the computation <strong>of</strong> the Penman potential<br />
evapotranspiration from the data sources in Eaet Africa. The actual<br />
evaporative losses may be estimated <strong>with</strong> the use <strong>of</strong> a physioal model<br />
<strong>of</strong> the soil moisture storage and transport system. Por a regional<br />
computation in a predominently arid region the net surface and<br />
subsurface run-<strong>of</strong>f may be taken a8 aero to yield an upper bound on<br />
the potential groundwater recharge. The accuraoy <strong>of</strong> the final result<br />
will depend on the ohoice <strong>of</strong> the soil moisture storage and transport<br />
model. This must represent the average regional response to the<br />
stimuli <strong>of</strong> rain, wind and sun.<br />
<strong>Water</strong> Balanoe Oalculation 0.f Groundwater Beoharge<br />
GWFli Potential Groundwater Resharge<br />
Pa Precipitation<br />
Eo: Penman Potential Evapotranspiration<br />
E : Actual Evapotranspiration<br />
Q: Soil Moisture Storage<br />
AQ; Change in Soil Moisture Storage<br />
RO: Rn-<strong>of</strong>f<br />
GWR = P - E -.U) - RO<br />
In order to compute the actual evapotranspiration from the<br />
Penman potential evapotranepiration the dynamics <strong>of</strong> a soil moisture<br />
model m e invoked. Many such models arc possible and future studies<br />
may improve this phase <strong>of</strong> the work. For the present computation a<br />
nbucket model" has been chosen. This model allemes that moisture<br />
stored in the soil root sone is freely available for transpiration<br />
up to the Penman potential Eo demand. If the root zone soil moisture<br />
is exhausted no further evapotranspiration takes place regardless <strong>of</strong><br />
the Penman Eo demand. Furthermore, lhe root abne has a finite<br />
capacity, Qo, for moisture storage. In the event the monthly<br />
precipitation minus the monthly Penman Eo exceeds Qo, downward<br />
percolation <strong>of</strong> the excess moisture takes place and constitutes the<br />
potential groundwater recharge.
"Bucket Model" <strong>of</strong> Soil Moisture Stcrage ana Transport<br />
1. Root zone has a maximum moisture storage capacity, Qo.<br />
2. If QSQo, groundwater recharge i? cil.<br />
3. If monthly moisture input plus storage exceeds Qo, the<br />
excess is potential groundwater rechzrge.<br />
We have made use <strong>of</strong> meteorological data collected by<br />
T. Woodhead, M. Dagg, and D.A. Rijks (iq 2, 3, 4). This data is<br />
based on 80 stations in Kenya, 50 in Tanzaniz and 17 in Uganda, at<br />
ozly a few stations were oomplete records <strong>of</strong> precipitation, wind run,<br />
and insclation available. Several methods were devised by Wlcndhead to<br />
fill in the blanks. In order to eompute the Penman potential<br />
evapotranspiration, Eo, according to the method <strong>of</strong> McCullooh (5) the<br />
following inputs are needed:<br />
2<br />
R: insclation in cakories/cm /day<br />
n/N: =?io 3f observed to maximum possible number <strong>of</strong> daily<br />
smshine hours.<br />
Ta:<br />
zverage screened ambient temperature 'C.<br />
o<br />
Td: mean deily temperature <strong>of</strong> den point C.<br />
U: win& run in miles per day at 2 meter elevation.<br />
Eased cn fifteen stations a linear regression between R and<br />
n/N has been derived (6, 7). This regressior, was used to derive one<br />
<strong>of</strong> thene quantities when the other was available from the meteorological<br />
recnrds. When neither R nor n/N were recorded use was made <strong>of</strong> a,<br />
rehtionship esteblished (1, 2) between the monthly mean <strong>of</strong> daily<br />
sucshim duraticn and the tot21 cloud amount. Estimates <strong>of</strong> total<br />
cloud smount are made at most civil airfields. When records <strong>of</strong> wind<br />
run were not available use was made <strong>of</strong> e relation established<br />
betaeen Beaufort scale assessments <strong>of</strong> wind velocity and wind run (3).<br />
After these procedures had been applied to complete the<br />
recr-ds they were processed to construct a synthetic year. Por each<br />
site sverages over the length <strong>of</strong> the record were made for each given<br />
mocth <strong>of</strong> the year. Monthly values <strong>of</strong> precipitation and Penman<br />
potential evapotranspiration were obtained. At each site an estimate<br />
was also made <strong>of</strong> the model parameter, Qo, the maximum m il moisture<br />
storage capacity in the root zone.<br />
The soil moisture storage and transport system is conceived<br />
<strong>of</strong> E? a dynamic system whose output is the downward percolating groundwater<br />
recharge which is determined jointly by the system driving funation<br />
3n3 the system physical parameters. The present output depends on the<br />
whcle past behavior <strong>of</strong> the input. If the syetem ie 3inesr, the system<br />
oiityut is the convolution <strong>of</strong> the system unit impulse rnspcnse and<br />
tke system c?ri.ving function. If the system is non-licesr, given the<br />
527
528<br />
input we can compute the output ueing the system parameters.<br />
For our bucket model system we proceeded as follows.<br />
If the Penman Eo exceeded the precipitation for several months we<br />
tentatively assumed that the soil moisture was totally depleted at the<br />
end <strong>of</strong> the dry season. Starting at that month the bookeeping was<br />
begun arid carried out each month for the duration <strong>of</strong> the synthetic<br />
year. On the other hand, if the precipitation exceeded the Penman<br />
Eo for most <strong>of</strong> the year the assumption was made that the soil was<br />
saturated <strong>with</strong> moisture at the end <strong>of</strong> the wettest period. Then the<br />
oookeeping was completed for the synthetic year. One <strong>of</strong> these<br />
assumptions always led to a consiatent sat <strong>of</strong> bookeeping entries.<br />
The monthly groundwater recharge was summed at each site over all<br />
mrnths <strong>of</strong> the synthetic year. These totals were then noted on a<br />
map and contour lines <strong>of</strong> equal groundwater recharge were interpolated.<br />
After obtaining the meteorological data the single model<br />
payameter 20 determines the reault. Therefore, the sensitivity <strong>of</strong><br />
the cont Ars to a variation <strong>of</strong> Qo ia <strong>of</strong> interest. It is evident that<br />
If the soil moisture is not completely depleted at some time during<br />
7-e gear, a change in Qo alone will not affect the groundwater recharge.<br />
For this situation, o<strong>nl</strong>y the moisture in permanent storage will be<br />
changed. On the other hand, if the sril moiature is completely<br />
exhausted at one time during the year, a change in Qo will change<br />
the throughput by an equal and opposite amount. Therefore, in arid<br />
regions a low soil moisture storage capacity favors groundwater<br />
recharge. Low storage capacity implies that a short intense rain<br />
will rapidly fill up the soil moisture reservoir and the excess will<br />
quickly percolate downward beyond the root zone to the subsurface<br />
storage aquifer. In arid regions vegetative cover is generally less,<br />
which re8'uces the losses due to tranepiration. Deep rooted<br />
vegetation wnuld negata this advantage.<br />
In order to investigate the eensitivity <strong>of</strong> the potential<br />
groundwater reoharge contours to a change in the value <strong>of</strong> QG, the<br />
ac.mputations were carried out for two choices <strong>of</strong> this parameter at<br />
each site.<br />
Oritiaue <strong>of</strong> the Method<br />
le hare attempted to obtain same idea <strong>of</strong> the regional<br />
potential groundwater recharge ratea using the available data, mai<strong>nl</strong>y<br />
meteorological records. By the use <strong>of</strong> a simple aoil moisture<br />
storage and transport model we estimate the actual evapotranspiration<br />
from the Penman potential evapotranspiration. The residue from the<br />
precipitat irn after subtracting the evapotranspiration and the<br />
increment tc soil moisture storage we identify as the deep percelation<br />
or potential groundwater recharge. The model we used for the soil<br />
mt-isture is a one parameter model and we have studied the effect on<br />
tSe throughpiit <strong>of</strong> the choice <strong>of</strong> this parameter.
Several improvements are poserible in the treatment. A study<br />
co-ild be carried out to improve the accurary <strong>of</strong> the model. It is easy<br />
tri devise multi-psrameter models. These could be compared to field<br />
me-rsurements. Another refinement would incorporate sdditional input<br />
data. Neutron soil moisture probes are now fairly widely available.<br />
Fer future work such data should be incorporated in the computation.<br />
The use <strong>of</strong> this additional input can lighten the burden <strong>of</strong> the model<br />
in the determination <strong>of</strong> the actual evapotranspiration.<br />
The neutron moisture probe data could be used in the<br />
following way which modifies the present soil moisture model. Soil<br />
misture pr<strong>of</strong>iles could be taken at monthly or weekly intervals to a<br />
depth <strong>of</strong> five meters. The total soil moisture to a fixed depth will<br />
??e totaled fnr each measurement. During the interval between<br />
measurements the precipitation and the Penman potential<br />
zvspotranspiration will be totaled. If during that interval there<br />
i? soil moist*ire storage exceeding the wilting point in the roet zone<br />
than the amel evapctranspiration will be taken as the Penman Eo. If<br />
wt, the actual evap6transpiration will be taken as zero.<br />
With this accounting procedure we could compute the sum <strong>of</strong><br />
the deep percolation and the difference between surface and subsurface<br />
run on and run<strong>of</strong>f. If these last categories are in approximate<br />
halance, then we have the deep percolation or potential groundwater<br />
recharge as the residual, From measurements at a network <strong>of</strong> sites the<br />
regional maps msy be constructed.<br />
The authors wish to thank the Director <strong>of</strong> EBBFRO for<br />
aermission to present this paper at the Symposium on the <strong>Design</strong> 00<br />
Tater <strong>Resources</strong> <strong>Projects</strong> <strong>with</strong> <strong>Inadequate</strong> Data, Madrid, June 1973.<br />
REFERENCES<br />
I. . Woodhead, T. (1966). Empirical relations between cloud<br />
amount, insolation and sunshine duration in East Africa:<br />
i, E. Afr. Agric. For. J., 2, pp211.<br />
2.<br />
3.<br />
Woodhead, T. (1967) Empirical relations between cloud<br />
amount, insolation and sunshine duration jr? East Africa:<br />
II, E. Afr. Agric. For. J., 2, pp474.<br />
Woodhead, T. (1970) mapping potential evaporaticn for<br />
tropical East Africa; the accuracy <strong>of</strong> Penmen estimates irem<br />
indirect assessments <strong>of</strong> radiation and wind speed, Proc.<br />
Reuding Symposium World WgletgFi,B&lanCe I. A.C.H.<br />
. I._ I -<br />
Dagq, M. and Woodhead, T. and Rijks, D.A., Evapcmtirr<br />
jn Enst Africa, nul. I.A.S.H., XV, 1, pp61.<br />
529
530<br />
c .. .<br />
6.<br />
7.<br />
McCulloch, J .S .O. (1965), Tables for the rapid i:omputE+,i.on<br />
<strong>of</strong> the Penman estimate <strong>of</strong> evaporation, E. Aï'?. AgTjc. For.<br />
J., 22, pp.286.<br />
Woodhead, T. (1968), Studies <strong>of</strong> Potential Evaporaticn in<br />
Kenya, Government nf Kenp, Nairobi.<br />
Woodhead, T. (196R), Studies <strong>of</strong> Potertial Evapuration i.c<br />
Tarizania, Dar es Saham.
A RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODEL BASED ON THE WATERHED STREAM NETWORK<br />
A BS TRAC T<br />
by J.W. Delleur and M.T. Lee*<br />
School <strong>of</strong> Civil Engineering<br />
Purdue University '<br />
West Lafayette, Indiana 47907, USA<br />
Physical models <strong>of</strong> the rainfall-run<strong>of</strong>f process are better<br />
suited than either stochastic or black box models for areas <strong>with</strong><br />
limited data, The model parameters must have a physical signifi-<br />
cance, be convenient to obtain and their number should be small,<br />
The framework <strong>of</strong> a model meeting these objectives is proposed and<br />
is based primarily on the geomorphologic characteristics <strong>of</strong> the<br />
stream network obtainable from maps or from aerial photographs.<br />
There is analytical and experimental evidence that hydrographs are<br />
dominated by direct run<strong>of</strong>f from very short overland flow paths<br />
from precipitation on transient, near channel wetlands. This<br />
wetland area is dynamic in the sense that it varies in terms <strong>of</strong> the<br />
history <strong>of</strong> the excess <strong>of</strong> the precipitation over the "B" horizon<br />
permeability, The distribution <strong>of</strong> the dynamic contributing area<br />
along the main stream is obtained under the assumptions that the<br />
velocity <strong>of</strong> flow along the stream network is uniform, that the<br />
drainage density is a constant <strong>with</strong>in a given watershed and that the<br />
first order streams are uniformly distributed in the basin, The<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f from the dynamic contributing area is then routed through the<br />
synthesized stream network to obtain the direct run<strong>of</strong>f at the basin<br />
outlet,<br />
RESUME<br />
Les modèles physiques des transferts pluies-débits s'adaptent<br />
mieux que les modèles stochatiques ou que les "boîtes noires" aux<br />
régions où les donndes sont limitées, Les paramêtres de ces modeles<br />
doivent être pourvus d'un sens physique, faciles 2 obtenir et leur<br />
nombre doit être petit, Le cad~e du modèle proposé se conforme 2 ces<br />
objectifs et est basé principalement sur les caractéristiques gêomorphologiques<br />
du rlseaa fluvial que l'on peut obtenir de cartes ou<br />
de photographies aériennes, I1 a dtb démontrê analytiquement et<br />
expérimentalement que les hydrogrammes sont en general dominbs par<br />
le ruisellement sur de petits parcours situês dans les zones mouiliges<br />
près des cours d'eau, Ces zones mouillêes son dynamiques dans<br />
le sens qu'elles varient pendant la pluie et avec la saison, Un modèle<br />
mathêmat2que de ces zones est formule en fonction de Ifhistoire<br />
de la précipitation excédant la permsabilité de l'horizon iiB't. La<br />
distribution de ces zones le long du rdseau fluvial est obtenue en<br />
supposant que la vitesse de l'écoulement est uniforme dans le réseau<br />
fluvial, que la densitd de drainage est constante pour le bassin<br />
donne, et que les cours d'eau du premier ordre sont uniformdment<br />
distrlbuh dans le bassi'n, Les ruissellements des zones dynamiques<br />
sont achemint% au travers d'une synthèse du rdseau fluvial pour obtenir<br />
i'ëcouïement à l'exutoire.<br />
* Current Addres,s: Dept, <strong>of</strong> Agricultural Economics, Univ. <strong>of</strong><br />
Illinois, Urbana, 1llinoi.s y 61801 y USA,
532<br />
Stochastic models for the generation Of river flow sequences require long<br />
historical time series for the appropriate calibration <strong>of</strong>the parameters. In<br />
many parts <strong>of</strong> the world, actual streamflow records are not sufflciently long to<br />
attempt to deflne an elementary model such as a flrst order Markov process for<br />
annual streamflow series. According to Rodriguez-Xturbe [i] for serles shorter<br />
than 40 years the error in estimating the annual man might run from 2% to 20%.<br />
for the variance from 15% to 60%. and for the rank one serial correlation it<br />
might be as high as 200%. It may be fìatile to attempt to develop generating models<br />
which preserve parameters, the estimation <strong>of</strong> which carries such an uncertainty.<br />
The formulation <strong>of</strong> mnthly models requires shorter records, but <strong>with</strong> a<br />
record <strong>of</strong> i5 years, the error in the rank one serial correlation coefficient is<br />
still <strong>of</strong> the order <strong>of</strong> 40%. Btochastic linear models <strong>of</strong> the rainfall-run<strong>of</strong>f process<br />
likewise require long time serles <strong>of</strong> both the rainfall and run<strong>of</strong>f for their<br />
calibration. It would, therefore, appear that for regions <strong>with</strong> inadequate data,<br />
one may have to resort to deterministic models. At this point, the choice may<br />
be between a %lack box" type <strong>of</strong> model and a physical model. Black box models<br />
ceanot be transferred from one location to another as the meaning <strong>of</strong> the peu-8meters<br />
in terma <strong>of</strong> their representation <strong>of</strong> the components <strong>of</strong> the hydrologic<br />
cycle is usually undeflned. The proper choice appears to be a physical model<br />
which requires a small number <strong>of</strong> easily identifiable parameters, or a model<br />
based on data w-hich can be obtained in a relatively short time, perhaps by new<br />
techniques.<br />
These physical models could conceivably be formulate&, by making use <strong>of</strong> information<br />
that is becoming available through remote sensing from airCrart and<br />
from satellites. By means <strong>of</strong> these new techniques, large areas CBP be observed<br />
and analyzed in a short time, end require a small amount <strong>of</strong> observations on the<br />
ground. The recent developments in remote seneing technology thue seem to point<br />
to a new direction for hydrologic investigations in -(LB <strong>with</strong> inadequate data.<br />
Remote sensing from aircraft or from satellite is best applied to observing<br />
or monitoring fairly large area and thus lende itself to the hydrologic studies<br />
<strong>of</strong> complete watersheds. Images taken at different times cm show changes In the<br />
watershed, such as variations ia the land we.<br />
The potential <strong>of</strong> remote sensing<br />
for water resources stubies has been discussed by Kiefer and Scherz [2], but the<br />
principal application <strong>of</strong> remote sensing to hydrology has been through aerial<br />
photography.<br />
The eye can see light from about .4 to .7 microns, but photographscan sense<br />
from about 0.3 to 1.0 microns, thus extending the range to lower and higher wave<br />
lengths. Color end color infrared photography have been used <strong>with</strong> great success<br />
in forestry .and in agricultural crop identification. [3] Themai scanning op-<br />
erates in the heat emission part o? the energy spectrum in the wan length riPr<br />
3 to 20 mincrons. Pluhowski [4] shoved that <strong>with</strong> Infra-red Imagery in the 8 to<br />
14 micron range, it is possible to discern thermal contrasts <strong>of</strong> 1' or 2'C. Thin<br />
technique enables the hyarolo,5lSt to detect areas <strong>of</strong> &K>inid water dlacharge mad<br />
to identify circulation patternr in large vater bodies.
533<br />
More advanced techniques include mUitiSpeCtra1 scanning and side looking<br />
radar. Multispectral scanners produce as many as 20 separate images in wave<br />
lengths ranging from the reflected infrared region to the ultraviolet region.<br />
These images may then be analyzed by means <strong>of</strong> computer data processing programs<br />
which classi* the surface materials. This classification is accomplished by<br />
separating materials in a known area according to their spectral response characteristics<br />
and then applying these criteria to unknown areas. [3] The side<br />
looking airborne radar can operate through dense cloud covers. It has been used<br />
in mapping southeastern Pan- and northwestern Columbia, which could not be<br />
mapped by conventional aerial photography becauee <strong>of</strong> the cloud cover. As an example,<br />
Weaver [5] cites that the meandering pattern <strong>of</strong> the hiira river was revealed<br />
by this technique.<br />
Black and white, color and color infrared photography combined can be used<br />
to delineate water bodies, rivers and streams, the drainage structure <strong>of</strong> watersheds,<br />
to give indications on the underlying geology and on the soil types <strong>of</strong><br />
the region. Waltz and Myers [6] have shown that there exists a significant correlation<br />
between the optical density measured from an aerial film and soil water<br />
content measured by neutron probes and also between ground water temperatures as<br />
measured through infrared thermal scanner and the soil water content <strong>of</strong> fallow<br />
or bare soil. Zachary et.al. [7] has applied multispectral. remote sensing to<br />
soil survey research in Indiana.<br />
These techniques may also be used for enalysie<br />
<strong>of</strong> water quality and for monitoring water pollution. [a] A general review <strong>of</strong><br />
the application <strong>of</strong> remote sensing in the management <strong>of</strong> earth resources has been<br />
prepared by Colwell [9].<br />
It appears that at present, black and white, color and infrared aerial<br />
color photography, can be used to obtain the basic information regarding stream<br />
networks, water bodies, main geologic and soil features needed in hydrologic investigations.<br />
It also appears that in the near future, more dependable informa-<br />
tion on soil water will become available through remote sensing.<br />
The remote<br />
sensing techniques thus appear to be <strong>of</strong> particular interest in areas <strong>with</strong> inade-<br />
quate data, as a substantial area can be mapped in a relatively short time <strong>with</strong><br />
a minimum <strong>of</strong> ground observation.<br />
MODEL FRAMEWORK<br />
It is the purpose <strong>of</strong> this paper to explore the feasibility <strong>of</strong> developing<br />
rainfall-nin<strong>of</strong>i models based primarily on information that can be obtained from<br />
remote sensing aerial photography and to establish a framework for such models.<br />
The simpler observations obtainable f rm the aerial photography being the plan<br />
form <strong>of</strong> the stream network. the topography and the soil type. the proposed model<br />
is based on these three types <strong>of</strong> information and particularly on the stream net-<br />
work s<br />
Geomorphologists have developed parameters which describe the topology, the<br />
structure, the planform and the relief <strong>of</strong> stream networks. [lo] Some <strong>of</strong> these<br />
parameters can be used ae indices <strong>of</strong> the hydrologic behavior <strong>of</strong> the basins since<br />
scmral characterietics <strong>of</strong> the hydrograph depend upon the efficiency <strong>of</strong> the
534<br />
drainage networks. For example, the bifurcation ratio (ratio <strong>of</strong> number <strong>of</strong> streem<br />
segments <strong>of</strong> one order to number <strong>of</strong> stream segments <strong>of</strong> next higher order) is an<br />
important control over the peakedness <strong>of</strong> the run<strong>of</strong>f hydrograph. Another geomorphologic<br />
parameter which affects the m<strong>of</strong>f pattern is the drainage density (smmation<br />
<strong>of</strong> stream lengths divided by basin area) which is approximately one halr<br />
<strong>of</strong> the reciprocal <strong>of</strong> the overland flow length. A high drainage density indicates<br />
a rapid removal <strong>of</strong> the surface run<strong>of</strong>f, a decrease in the lag time and an<br />
increase in the peak <strong>of</strong> the hydrograph.<br />
A model based on the stream network also lends itself to the application or<br />
the dynamic source area concept rather than the application <strong>of</strong> classical Horton<br />
infiltration theory for the purpose <strong>of</strong> estimating the run<strong>of</strong>f-producing-rainfall.<br />
Freeze [li] has shown theoretically that on concave slopes <strong>with</strong> lower permeabilities<br />
and on all convex slopes, hydrographs are dominated by direct run<strong>of</strong>f <strong>with</strong><br />
a very short overland flow path from precipitation on transient, near channel<br />
wetlands which form the variable response area.<br />
DuMe and Black [12] reported<br />
that the area contributing to the overland flow ie dynamic in the sense that it<br />
varies seasonally and throughout a storm. Nutter and Hewlett 1131 have depicted<br />
the growth <strong>of</strong> the source area during a storm from areas adjacent to the lover<br />
order streems and gradual4 expanding to the main stream in one direction and to<br />
efflmeral stream in the other. It seems logical to assume that the response<br />
area will depend on the soil type adjacent to the stream and on the antecedent<br />
rainfall.<br />
In view <strong>of</strong> the complexity that would result from estimating and routing the<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f in each tributary, it is proposed to synthesize the stream network by<br />
folding it along the main stream in a manner similar to that mea by Lkwge [i41<br />
<strong>with</strong> the time-area diagram.<br />
Several routing procedures could be used, the %om-<br />
plete linear routing" method <strong>of</strong> Dooge and Harley [i51 was used because <strong>of</strong> its<br />
superior accuracy among other linearand emperical methods. It is in the appli-<br />
cation <strong>of</strong> the routing procedure that the slope <strong>of</strong> the main stream plays a major<br />
role. For full details the reader is directed to ref. 17.<br />
iVRMULàTION OF THE MDDEL<br />
The model <strong>of</strong> the contributing area A(iAt) is expressed by the relationship<br />
i;,<br />
i-1<br />
[R(kAt) - B]At + [R(iAt) - B]At<br />
A(iAt) = Ao I<br />
i<br />
T<br />
[R(kAt) - 1<br />
B]At<br />
k=O<br />
where A(iAt) is the contributing (response) ana at time iAt<br />
R(kAt) is the rainfall intensity at time kAt<br />
B is the "B" horizon permeability<br />
D is the fraction <strong>of</strong> the antecedent rainfall contributing to the<br />
response area<br />
N is a parameter<br />
T is the total nuniber <strong>of</strong> sampling points <strong>of</strong> the run<strong>of</strong>f -&-ogreph<br />
(1)
k<br />
i<br />
is an index to count the time <strong>of</strong> antecedent rainfall excess,<br />
k*i<br />
is an index indicating the current time<br />
Equation (1) is subject to the conetraint that the continuity equation must<br />
be satisfied, namely the volume <strong>of</strong> rainfall excess muet be equal to the volume<br />
<strong>of</strong> direct run<strong>of</strong>f:<br />
- T T<br />
1 QO(lAt)At 1 A(iAt) [R(iAt) - B]At<br />
i =o i=o<br />
where Q,(iAt) is the direct run<strong>of</strong>f at the outlet at time Ata<br />
535<br />
The synthesis <strong>of</strong> the stream network is based, in part, on the observation<br />
made,by Leopold [i61 that there is no definite tendency îor the flow velocity to<br />
have a great change along the length <strong>of</strong> the stream for a given retuni period or<br />
fkequency. It may thus be assumed that locations having equal distances measured<br />
along the stream network to the outlet, have the same run<strong>of</strong>f travel time to<br />
the outlet. If it may be further assumed that the drainage density is approximately<br />
uniform <strong>with</strong>in a watersheä, then the total stream length upstream <strong>of</strong> a<br />
particular point on a stream ia proportional to the tributary drainage area at<br />
that point. Thus the distribution <strong>of</strong> the travel times is proportional to the<br />
distribution <strong>of</strong> the drainage areas along the stream reaches, and o<strong>nl</strong>y the latter<br />
need to be considered. Fig. 1 shows the method <strong>of</strong> estimation <strong>of</strong> the distribution<br />
<strong>of</strong> the drainage arem s(JAL) along the main stream reaches for a idealized<br />
waters he d.<br />
The vol^ <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f may be obtained by adding the run<strong>of</strong>fs from each <strong>of</strong> the<br />
elementary contributing areas. Calling a(jAL, IAt) the dynamic response area<br />
at stream reach jAL and at time iAt, the continuity equation may be written<br />
T T S<br />
1 Qo(iAt)At 1 1 a(JAL, iAt) [R(iAt) - BIAL At (3)<br />
is0 i=O, j=o<br />
where S is the total nimiber <strong>of</strong> stream reaches.<br />
Assuming further that the first order atreams or the atream Bources are plaiformly<br />
distributed over the watershed, then, at a given time iAts the ratio 0%<br />
the dynamic response area a(jAL, iAt) at stream reach jAL to the tributaPy<br />
drainage area at the same stream reach is equal to the ratio <strong>of</strong> the total pesponse<br />
area A(iAt) to the total watershed area Ao- Thus<br />
The continuity equation (3) thua becows
536<br />
The direct run<strong>of</strong>fs from the individual stream reaches are then routed<br />
through the stream network by means <strong>of</strong> a linear routing procedure. li- 2<br />
shows schematically the routing procedure for a stream reach.<br />
X(JAL, kAt), in reach j at time<br />
-<br />
The input,<br />
kAt is the direct run<strong>of</strong>f given by<br />
X(JAL, kAt) ao(jAL) A(kAt) [R(kAt) - BI (5)<br />
AO<br />
and the routed outflow from reach,j, at time iAt is Y(JAL, iAt), given by the<br />
convolution integral shown in pig. 2 which Is approximated by the convolution<br />
sum<br />
i<br />
Y(jAL, iAt) 2: Hu(JAL, (i-k)At) X(jAL, kAt)At (6)<br />
k=O<br />
where H (JAL, (i-k)At) is the kernel function or instantsneous unit hydrograph<br />
<strong>of</strong> the bear routing procedure used. The run<strong>of</strong>f at the outlet, Bo, is obtained<br />
by summation over the stream reaches<br />
S i<br />
2 (iAt) = 1 1 H,(jAL, (i-k)At) * Ia0(jAL) A(kAt) [R(kAt)-BI - At '<br />
C<br />
(7)<br />
j=O k=O AO<br />
where A(kAt) is given by equation (1). The kernel fbctions for 10 <strong>of</strong> the most<br />
common linear routing models have been listed by Toebes and Chang [la]. In this<br />
particuiar study the linear channel routing kernel function used is based on a<br />
linearization <strong>of</strong> the Saint Venant equations developed by Rwge and Harley [15].<br />
This kernel function has three parameters: the stream slope, a reference discharge,<br />
and a roughness parameter.<br />
IMPLEMENTATION OF THE MODEL<br />
The watersheds selected for testing the model are located in the state <strong>of</strong><br />
Indiana, near the center <strong>of</strong> the esstem half <strong>of</strong> the United States. Thirteen basins<br />
were used <strong>with</strong> areas ranging from 8 to 400 square kilometers. The drainage<br />
maps for these watersheds were prepared from aerial photographs at the scale <strong>of</strong><br />
1:20,000 by the staff <strong>of</strong> the Airphoto Interpretation Laboratory, School <strong>of</strong> Civil<br />
Engineering at -due University.<br />
The maps used were at the scale <strong>of</strong> 1:63,360<br />
(one inch equals one mile). The longitude and latitude <strong>of</strong> all stream junctions<br />
and stream sources <strong>with</strong>in the basins were digitized and stored on punched cards<br />
by means <strong>of</strong> an automatic digitizer. The details <strong>of</strong> assembly and <strong>of</strong> the storage<br />
<strong>of</strong> the hydrologic and geomorphologic data on magnetic tapes have been reported<br />
by Lee, Blank and Delleur [is]. Fig. 3 presents a CALCOMP restitution <strong>of</strong> the<br />
drainage network <strong>of</strong> a watershed from the data stored on magnetic tape. Also<br />
ahawn on Fig. 3 are the etream link m d the drainage eue8 distributions along
537<br />
the main stream. The rainfall imposed on the dynamic contributing areas is then<br />
used as the input into the linear routing procedure for each main stream link<br />
and then summed over all the stream links. Fig. 4 (right) shows the outflow hy-<br />
drograph obtained by the complete linear routing method using the parameter val-<br />
ue shown (QI3 = reference discharge in d/Sec, CZ = roughness coefficient in<br />
d2/sec, SL = main stream slope). With the exception <strong>of</strong> the slope, the parame-<br />
ter velues were obtained by an optimization procedure which minimized the differ-<br />
ence between observed and calculated peak discharges and observed and calculated<br />
timesto the peak discharge. The parameters so obtained were correlated <strong>with</strong><br />
climatological and geomorphological characteristics <strong>of</strong> the watersheds <strong>with</strong> the<br />
following results.<br />
For the watersheds used in this study it was found that the outflow hydrographs<br />
were not sensitive to the choice <strong>of</strong> D for D > 0.5. A value <strong>of</strong> D = 0.8<br />
was used. The value <strong>of</strong> B was taken as zero as the soils were generally impervious<br />
because <strong>of</strong> their clayey type and high permanent water table in the contributing<br />
areas adjacent to the streams. The value <strong>of</strong> N was found to be related t6<br />
the moPf ratio, R (ratio <strong>of</strong> measured run<strong>of</strong>f to measured rainfall):<br />
r'<br />
0.464 - Rr<br />
for = D = 0.8, B = O<br />
0.242<br />
(8)<br />
The run<strong>of</strong>f ratio was in turn related to the storm characteristics, the tempera-<br />
ture and an average soil permeability index <strong>of</strong> the basin by a regression equa-<br />
tion <strong>of</strong> the type<br />
a 8 6 ~<br />
Rr = Tmin 'I 'max<br />
where T+n is the minimum daily temperature when the storm occurs, Sf =: soil<br />
permeability index determined by assigning soil permeability VaEues to major<br />
soil types occurring in the basin, and calculating the weighted average for each<br />
basin, Pt is the rainfa-ll. volume and P- is the maximum rainfall intensity. The<br />
independent variables in the right hand side <strong>of</strong> Eq. (9) are listed from left to<br />
right in order <strong>of</strong> decrearkig significance. Al1 the exponente were negative and<br />
less than one (a = -0.42, f3 = -0.15, y = -0.18, 6 = -0.25). The multiple correlation<br />
coefficient was 0.91.<br />
The roughness coefficient C, was significantly correlated to the basin area,<br />
the stream slope, and the b me flow per unit area by a regression equation <strong>of</strong><br />
the t yp<br />
where Bf is the base flow per unit area when the storm occurs, 4 is the drain-<br />
age area and So is the slope <strong>of</strong> the main stream. The independent variables are<br />
listed in order <strong>of</strong> decreasing aignificance. The exponents p and v were positive<br />
(1.0 and 1.4 respectively) but A was negative (-0.21)* The multiple correlation<br />
coefficient was 0.64. The value <strong>of</strong> the reference discharge varied between nar-<br />
row limits, 1.1to 1.4 cubic meter per second for atom wlumas ranging from 2.5<br />
(9)
538<br />
to i4 mm. Making use o? equations 8 throua 10, the model regenerated well the<br />
shapes <strong>of</strong> the hydrographs; the peak discharges were in general, reproduced <strong>with</strong>in<br />
20% and the times to peak <strong>with</strong>in 10% <strong>of</strong> the observed values. It should be<br />
remembered that equations 8, 9 and 10 are u<strong>nl</strong>ikely to be vali8 outside <strong>of</strong> the<br />
geographical arca ?or which they were obtained. They indicate, however, the<br />
type <strong>of</strong> variables which influence the model parameters and their corresponding<br />
sensitivity.<br />
DISCUSSION AND CoNCurSIONS<br />
The framework has been developed for a model which makes it possible to es-<br />
timate the run<strong>of</strong>f from rainfall and from data obtainable from aerial photography<br />
and from remote sensing. As presented, aerial photograph is needed for the de-<br />
termination <strong>of</strong> the stream network, the main stream slope and the watershed a r e a n<br />
In addition infrared color photography and/or ground observations are needed to<br />
obtain the soil permeability index, the soil types for the estimation o? the 'B"<br />
horizon permeability and the base flow.<br />
<strong>with</strong> the rapid progress <strong>of</strong> the remote sensing technology, it is expected<br />
that, in the near future, the amount <strong>of</strong> field work necessary may be greatly re-<br />
duced and lidted to calibration areas to obtain the spectral response charac-<br />
teristics needed for the interpretation <strong>of</strong> the remote sensing scanning.<br />
The rainfall-run<strong>of</strong>f process in a watershed was simulated by three basic<br />
components: a dynamic contributing area model, a contributing area distribution<br />
curve which integrates the contributing areas along the stream network, and a<br />
linear routing technique. In the proposed dynamic contribution area model the<br />
exponent N, which quantifies the rate <strong>of</strong> expansion <strong>of</strong> the response area, Was<br />
found to be the dominant parameter, and was found to be correlated to the -<strong>of</strong>f<br />
ratio. The "B" horizon infiltration and the weight <strong>of</strong> the antecedent rainfd1 D<br />
were not the primary parameters. In the linear routing, the roughness Parameter<br />
was found to be correlated to geomorphologic parameters and to the baseflow Wr<br />
unit area. The reference discharge did not change significantly from Storm to<br />
storm or from watershed to watershed.<br />
ACKNOh'LEIKMENT<br />
The Work presented herein was supported by Lhe Office o? <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Re search, U.S. Department <strong>of</strong> the Interior under grant OWRR-B-008-IliD, by the Purdue<br />
Research Foundation under grant XR 5869 and by PiPrdue University. m-<br />
thors wish to exprese their thanks to the sponsors,<br />
REFERENCES<br />
1. Rodriguez-Iturbe, I. (1969) Estimation <strong>of</strong> Statistical Parmeters for Annual<br />
River Flows, <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Research, 5, pp. 1418-1421-<br />
2. Keifer, R. W. and J. A. Sherz (1971) Aerial photograph for <strong>Water</strong> reSomceS<br />
studies, Jour. o? Surveying and Mapping Div. , Am. Soc. civil Enva. vole 97,<br />
No- SU29 PP. 321-333.
3.<br />
4.<br />
5.<br />
6.<br />
7.<br />
539<br />
Laboratory for Agricultural Remote Sensing, Purdue University, Lafayette,<br />
Indiana (i968 and 1971) Remote Multispectral sensing in Agriculture, Vol.<br />
3 (Annual Rept., 1968) Res. Bull. No. 844, Agr. Exp. Station, also Vol. 4<br />
(Annual Rept., 1971) Res. Bull. NO. 873, Agr. Exp. Station.<br />
Pluhowski, E. J. (1972) Hydrologic interpretations based on infrared ima-<br />
gery <strong>of</strong> Long Island, New York, Geel. Surv. <strong>Water</strong> Supply Paper 2009, U.S.<br />
Govt. Print. Off.<br />
Weaver, K. F. (1969) Remote sensing: new eyes to see the world, Natl. Geo-<br />
graphic, Vol. 135, NO. 1, pp. 47-73.<br />
Waltz, F. A. and Y. I. mers (1970)<br />
Remote sensing <strong>of</strong> hydrologic resources<br />
in the Great Plains, Rept. #I, Remote Sensing Inst., Univ. <strong>of</strong> South Dakota.<br />
(Available from IVTIS, NO. PB 195 451)<br />
Zachary, A. L., J. E. Cipra, R. J. Diderickson, S. J. Krist<strong>of</strong>, and M. F.<br />
Baumgardner (1972) Application <strong>of</strong> multispectral remote sensing to soil<br />
survey research in Indiana, Lab. for Application <strong>of</strong> Remote Sensing, Purdue<br />
Univ., Lafayette, Indiana, Print 110972. '<br />
8. Scherz, J. P. (1971) Monitoring water pollution by remote sensing, Jour. ai'<br />
Survy. and Map. Div., Am. Soc. Civil Engr., Vol. 97, No. SU2, pp. 307-320.<br />
9. Colwell, R. N. (1973) Remote sensing in the management <strong>of</strong> earth resources,<br />
American Scientist, Vol. 61, NO. 2.<br />
10. Strahler, A. N. (1964) Quantitative geomorphology <strong>of</strong> drainage b&ns and<br />
channel networks, in Handbook <strong>of</strong> Applied <strong>Hydrology</strong>, V. T. Chow, Ed., McGraw-<br />
Hill Book Co., pp. 4-40, pp. 44-74.<br />
11. Freeze, R. A. (1972) Role <strong>of</strong> subsurface flow in generating surface run<strong>of</strong>f,<br />
2, Upstream Source Areas, <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Res., 8. pp. 1272-1283.<br />
12. Dunne, T., Bnd Black, R. D. (1970) Partial area contributions to storm run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
in a s-1 New Englua watershed, <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Res., 6, pp. 1296-1311.<br />
13. Nutter, W. J., and Hewlett (1971) Stream flow production from permeable upland<br />
basin, paper presented to the Third Internatl. Seminar for <strong>Hydrology</strong><br />
Pr<strong>of</strong>essors, Furdue Univ., Lafayette, Ind., USA, July 1971.<br />
14. Dooge, J. C. I. (1959) A general theory <strong>of</strong> the unit hydrograph, Jour. o?<br />
Geophys. Res., Vol. 64, NO. 2, pp. 241-256.<br />
15 Dooge, J. C. I. and B. M. Harley (1967) Linear routing in uniform chmela,<br />
Proc. inti. wdroïogy Symp., Sept. 1967, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA, 1, pp.<br />
57-63.<br />
16. kopold, L. E. (1953) Downstream change <strong>of</strong> velocity in rivers, Am. Jour. <strong>of</strong><br />
Science. 25. PP. 606-624.<br />
17. Lee, M.-T. t&d-J. W. Delleur (1972) A program for estimating mu<strong>of</strong>f from<br />
Indiana <strong>Water</strong>sheds, Part III, Analysis <strong>of</strong> geomorphologic data snd a dyndc contributing area model for run<strong>of</strong>f estimation, Purdue Univ. <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong><br />
Res. Center, Lafayette, Ind. Tech. Rept. No. 24.<br />
18. Toebes, G. H. and T. P. Chang (1972) Simulation model for the Upper Wabash<br />
surface water system, Purdue Univ. <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Res. Center, Lafayette,<br />
Ind. Tech. Rept. NO. 27.<br />
19. Lee, M. T., D. ~lank, J. W. Delleur<br />
(1972) A program for eetimting mori from Indiana watersheds , Part II , Assembly <strong>of</strong> hydroloaic euid geomorphologic<br />
data for small watershed0 in Indiana, Purdue Unio. <strong>Water</strong> Resource9 Ra#. Ccnter,<br />
Lafayette, Indiens, Tech. Rept. No. 23.
540<br />
a<br />
U<br />
O<br />
O<br />
STREAM REACH<br />
2 4 6 8<br />
STREAM REACH i<br />
FIGURE I DRAINAGE AREA DISTRIBUTION ALON<br />
THE STREAM REACHES
INPUT 5 q (0,t)<br />
INPUT - 1 SYSTEM1 OUTPUT -<br />
INPUT<br />
DE LTA<br />
FUNCTION<br />
q(0.t) = Xf0,t)<br />
-<br />
t<br />
t<br />
OUTPUT = q (L,t)<br />
OUTPUT<br />
2 PHYSICAL D?AGRAM OF UPSTREAM INFLOW<br />
INSTANTANEOUS UNIT HYDROGRAPH<br />
FOR SINGLE STREAM REACH<br />
t<br />
541
m (D U N<br />
542
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543
MONTHLY STREAMFLOW ESTIMATION FROM LIMITED DATA<br />
C.T. Haan<br />
-- ABSTRACT<br />
A four parameter, monthly water yield model has been developed<br />
and tested that makes it possible to estimate monthly streamflow<br />
volumes from daily rainfall information. The four parameters <strong>of</strong> the<br />
model can be determined from as little as two years <strong>of</strong> observed<br />
monthly streamflow data. This makes it possible to install<br />
temporary, short term stream gaging stations to collect two or<br />
three years <strong>of</strong> monthly streamflow data and from this data determine<br />
the four parameters <strong>of</strong> the water yield model. The model uses a<br />
self-optimizing procedure so that the user is not necessarily involved<br />
in the parameter estimation process. A study <strong>of</strong> 24 watersheds<br />
has also shown that the four model parameters can be related<br />
to soil, geomorphic, and geologic characteristics <strong>of</strong> the basin.<br />
In this way the parameters for an ungaged basin can be estimated<br />
<strong>with</strong>out requiring any data from that particular basin. Once the<br />
model parameters are determined, long traces <strong>of</strong> monthlv streamflow<br />
data cán be simulated us ng o<strong>nl</strong>y daiiy rainfa 1 as a model input.<br />
RESUME<br />
_ _ mis au point un mode<br />
On a développé et<br />
e à quatre paramètres,<br />
pour l'évaluation du rendement mensuel en eau, qui rend possible<br />
une estimation du volume de l'écoulement mensuel à partir de<br />
l'information que constituent les pluies journalières. Les quatre<br />
nnram5tres - - . - - - - - di1 - - mod31e . - - - - - n~iivent - - . - -- - P+PP - - - - d8tPvrninLs - - - - , , -. . - - > - na-etiv r-.- --- ~tin~nmrna-<br />
- ....I"L...tions<br />
aussi restreintes que les résultats de deux ans d'observation<br />
des débits. Cela permet d'installer des stations de jaugeage des<br />
débits, temporaires, à court terme, afin de réunir des informations<br />
portant sur deux ou trois ans, sur les débits mensuels, et, 2<br />
partir de ces informations deduire les quatre paramètres du modèle<br />
de rendement d'eau. Le modèle fait usage d'un procédé qui évalue<br />
automatiquement les informations et les dispose de la meilleure<br />
facon possible (self-optimizing procedure) de sorte que l'usager<br />
n'a pas nécessairement à se préoccuper de l'estimation des paramètres.<br />
Une étude de 24 bassins (watersheds) a aussi montré que<br />
les quatre paramètres du modèle peuvent être reliés aux caracteristiques<br />
géomorphiques et géologiques, ainsi qu'a celles du sol, pour<br />
un bassin (basin) donné. De cette facon, les paramètres pour un<br />
bassin non jauge peuvent être évalués sans que l'on ait besoin de<br />
faire appel a des renseignements sur ce bassin en question. Une<br />
fois que les paramètres du modèle sont déterminés, on peut produire<br />
artificieilement un tracé important (long traces) des débits<br />
mensuels en se servant seulement, pour alimenter le modèle, des<br />
précipitations j ournaïières .
546<br />
The design <strong>of</strong> surface water supply systems requires an<br />
estimate <strong>of</strong> streamflow volume characteristics. Ideally, the<br />
designer would like to have available long streamflow records.<br />
Generally, for the design <strong>of</strong> water supply reservoirs, a long<br />
record <strong>of</strong> monthly run<strong>of</strong>f volumes would be sufficient. Unfortunate-<br />
ly these streamflow records are not available for a vast majority<br />
<strong>of</strong> the streams draining watersheds <strong>of</strong> up to 1500 square kilometers.<br />
Thus, methods <strong>of</strong> estimating monthly run<strong>of</strong>f volumes for these un-<br />
gaged basins are needed.<br />
<strong>Water</strong>shed models that simulate continuous streamflow records<br />
<strong>of</strong> fer promise in this area. Several comprehensive watershed<br />
models are presently available [1,2,3]. These models may be<br />
categorized as parametric models in that they contain several<br />
parameters that must be estimated before they can be applied to a<br />
particular watershed. The parameters must be determined manually<br />
and are based on a comparison <strong>of</strong> observed streamflows <strong>with</strong><br />
simulated streamflows.<br />
Realizing the ability <strong>of</strong> computers to find parameter sets that<br />
satisfy certain objectives and the differences that occur when<br />
different people determine the values for model parameters, Liou<br />
141 attempted to develop a self-optimizing procedure for the<br />
Stanford <strong>Water</strong>shed Model [i]. Further work on the Stanford Model<br />
was done by Ross [SI in an attempt to relate the optimum model<br />
parameters to watershed characteristics.<br />
Haan [6] has developed a relatively simple run<strong>of</strong>f model that<br />
enables one to estimate monthly streamflow from daily precipitation<br />
and estimated average daily potential evapotranspiration. The<br />
model contains four parameters that must be determined for each<br />
basin. These parameters are :<br />
f<br />
Smax<br />
Cmax<br />
= maximum infiltration rate (cm/hr).<br />
= maximum daily seepage loss (cm) .<br />
= water holding capacity <strong>of</strong> that part <strong>of</strong><br />
the soil from which the evapotranspiration<br />
rate is less than the potential rate<br />
u<strong>nl</strong>ess this portion <strong>of</strong> the soil is<br />
saturated (cm) .<br />
'Associate Pr<strong>of</strong>essor, Agricultural Engineering Department ,<br />
University <strong>of</strong> Kentucky , Lexington , Kentucky, 40 506 , USA.
Fs = fraction <strong>of</strong> the seepage that becomes<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f (-1.<br />
The optimum values for these parameters are defined to be<br />
those that minimize the sum <strong>of</strong> squares between the observed and<br />
simulated monthly run<strong>of</strong>f volumes. Thus, to get the optimum<br />
parameter values , some observed streamflow data is required.<br />
Work <strong>with</strong> the model has shown that two years <strong>of</strong> monthly streamflow<br />
data are usually sufficient to obtain a satisfactory set <strong>of</strong><br />
optimum parameter values.<br />
The model has the capability <strong>of</strong> determining the optimum<br />
parameter values for a particular basin when provided <strong>with</strong> daily<br />
rainfall, average daily potential evapotranspiration by months,<br />
some observed monthly streamflowc for the basin, and a set <strong>of</strong><br />
initial estimates for the parameter values.<br />
The optimization procedure that is<br />
univariate technique. The value <strong>of</strong> the<br />
n<br />
c (Vo - Vs. ) is computed using the<br />
i=l i 1<br />
parameter value. in this expression, n<br />
flow and Vo is the observed volume and<br />
streamflow $or the ith month. Next the<br />
presently used is a simple<br />
objective function<br />
initial estimates for the<br />
is the number <strong>of</strong> monaths <strong>of</strong><br />
Vs. the simulated volume <strong>of</strong><br />
vatue <strong>of</strong> one <strong>of</strong> the parameters<br />
is chanued bv a fixed amount and the obiective function is<br />
recomputed. &e vaiue <strong>of</strong> this parameter contiAues to be changed<br />
as long as the objective function is improving (getting smaller).<br />
The other three parameters are adjusted in the same manner one at<br />
a time. Since these parameters are not independent, the entire<br />
process is then repeated one or two times. The result <strong>of</strong> this<br />
iterative process is taken as the optimum set <strong>of</strong> parameters.<br />
This model has been tested on 24 watersheds in Kentucky<br />
ranging in area from 1.74 to 1225 square kilometers and on 3 water-<br />
sheds in South Carolina ranging in area from O .ll to 2.27 square<br />
kilometers. The results <strong>of</strong> these evaluations are given in 161 ,<br />
[71 and [8]. Defining the average prediction error (%) as 100<br />
times the absolute value <strong>of</strong> the difference between the observed<br />
and simulated average annual streamf low divided by the observed<br />
average annual streamflow, the average prediction error for these<br />
27 watersheds is 4.0 percent. For these watersheds, the average<br />
annual run<strong>of</strong>f varied from 18.7 to 48.6 cm.<br />
For streams on which there are no records available, at least<br />
two procedures can be used to estimate the optimum parameter values.
548<br />
If sufficient time is available, a temporary stream gaging station<br />
can be established and operated for two or more years. This<br />
station would o<strong>nl</strong>y have to provide information on the monthly<br />
flows. The data from this short-term gaging program could then<br />
be used in the optimization scheme described earlier.<br />
Jarboe and Haan [7] have used a second technique for estimat-<br />
ing the four model parameters for ungaged basins. This method uses<br />
streamflow information from gaged basins in the vicinity <strong>of</strong> the<br />
ungaged basin <strong>of</strong> interest. The optimum model parameters for the<br />
gaged basins are determined and related to measureable character-<br />
istics <strong>of</strong> the gaged basins. These relationships are then used<br />
to estimate the model parameters for the ungaged basin.<br />
The basin characteristics used by Jarboe and Haan [7] are<br />
shown in Table 1. The four model parameters were related to these<br />
factors using multiple linear regression. Twenty-three watersheds<br />
were included in the study. Six <strong>of</strong> the watersheds were selected<br />
at random and treated as ungaged basins.<br />
The remaining 17 basins<br />
were used in developing the following prediction equations for the<br />
model parameters :<br />
fmx = 11.83 - 11.51 Smax - 0.0147 SdSb - 0.030 A H<br />
g<br />
- 0.334 PkFc + 0.692 VrPR<br />
= 0.073 + 0.0031 Wc + 0.00075 Iw L - 0.0021 P H<br />
nax a g<br />
+ 0.00011 FcL - 0.0057 V H<br />
r g<br />
C = 7.69 + 0.739 IwSb + 0.011 S H + 0.0243 FcIw<br />
d 9<br />
Fs = 0.325 + 0.0068 L + 0.444 PkSb + 0.00027 PsSd<br />
- 0.018 WcPk<br />
These equations should not be used on watersheds (1) greater<br />
than 100 square kilometers in area, (2) on urban watersheds, or<br />
(3) on watersheds that differ greatly in their hydrologic char-<br />
acteristics from the watersheds used to derive the equations.<br />
(1)<br />
(2)<br />
(3)<br />
(4)
Table 1. <strong>Water</strong>shed characteristics used by Jarboe and<br />
Haan [7] to estimate the water yield model<br />
parameters.<br />
Geomorphic Factors<br />
A Basin area (km')<br />
percent <strong>of</strong> basin under forest cover (%)<br />
Percent <strong>of</strong> basin in lakes and ponds (%)<br />
Slope <strong>of</strong> the main stream (%)<br />
Length <strong>of</strong> the main stream (km)<br />
%<br />
Soil Factors<br />
W Average available soil water capacity (cm)<br />
HC U. S. Departnuint <strong>of</strong> Agriculture, Soil<br />
Conservation Service hydrologic soil<br />
group converted to a numerical index<br />
from 1 to 4 (-1<br />
Sd Average soil depth (cm)<br />
P Average soil permeability (cm/hr)<br />
p:<br />
Average permeability <strong>of</strong> upper soil horizon<br />
(cm/hr)<br />
549<br />
Geologic Factors<br />
vr<br />
"Rock" volume = mean basin elevation above<br />
basin outlet times the basin area (krn3)<br />
I,<br />
<strong>Water</strong> availability index (an index ranging<br />
from 1 to 4 depending on the ability <strong>of</strong> the<br />
material underlying the basin to yield water<br />
to wells) (-)
5 50<br />
Table 2 presents a s-ry <strong>of</strong> the results <strong>of</strong> using the above<br />
4 equations to estimate the parameters <strong>of</strong> the model on the 6 basins<br />
that were taken as unqaged. The simulated run<strong>of</strong>f values were<br />
obtained by estimating the model parameters from equations 1<br />
through 4 and then using these estimated parameters in the water<br />
yield model to simulate monthly streamflows. The six watersheds<br />
listed in table 2, although actually gaged, were considered as<br />
ungaged and not used in developing equations 1 through 4. These<br />
results indicate that reasonably good estimates <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f volumes<br />
can be made on watersheds for which no streamflow records are<br />
avai lab le.<br />
EXAMPLE APPLICATION<br />
The South Fork <strong>of</strong> the Little Barren River in Kentucky was<br />
used to illustrate the application <strong>of</strong> this model under various<br />
conditions. Streamflow records have been maintained by the U.S.<br />
Geological Survey for this watershed for the period October <strong>of</strong><br />
1948 through September <strong>of</strong> 1970. A U.S. Weather Bureau rain gage<br />
at Edmonton, Kentucky, about 6 1/2 kilometers from the watershed,<br />
was used to provide the needed precipitation input. Some <strong>of</strong> the<br />
watershed physical characteristics are given in table 3. This<br />
watershed was not selected because <strong>of</strong> the ability <strong>of</strong> the model to<br />
simulate its monthly flow, but because <strong>of</strong> the long gaging record<br />
for the stream that could be used to check the simulated results.<br />
Table 4 summarizes the various simulations made on the South<br />
Fork <strong>of</strong> the Little Barren River watershed. Methods a through d<br />
are examples <strong>of</strong> how the model might be used to simulate streamflow<br />
from a previously ungaqed area. Method a required no streamflow<br />
records in that the parameters were estimated from equation 1<br />
through 4. Methods b, c, and d illustrate how the model can be<br />
used if it is possible to initiate a stream gaging program and<br />
collect 1, 2, or 3 years <strong>of</strong> data respectively on monthly run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
volumes. In method e the entire 22 years were used in a procedure<br />
described by Haan 161 to obtain the parameter values. In table 4<br />
the percent error is as previously defined, the correlation<br />
coefficient is the simple correlation between the observed and<br />
simulated monthly flows for the entire 22 year period <strong>of</strong> record,<br />
and the slope is the slope <strong>of</strong> a simple regression line relating<br />
the observed and simulated flows.
Table 2. Comparison <strong>of</strong> observed and simulated average<br />
annual run<strong>of</strong>f for six Kentucky watersheds when<br />
the mode1 parameters are estimated by equations<br />
(1-4).<br />
Observed<br />
Average<br />
Annual<br />
<strong>Water</strong>shed Run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
Helton Branch 43.59 crn<br />
McGills Creek 41.50<br />
Perry Creek 34.16<br />
Stillwater Creek 48.59<br />
Little Plum Creek 46.74<br />
N. F. Nolin River 39.90<br />
Simulated<br />
Average<br />
Annual<br />
Run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
44.63 cm<br />
46.41<br />
33.55<br />
42.98<br />
48.01<br />
43.46<br />
551<br />
Percent <strong>Water</strong>shed<br />
Error Area<br />
2<br />
2.4 2.20 km<br />
11.8 5.54<br />
1.8 4.45<br />
11.5 62.16<br />
2.7 13.33<br />
8.9 94.28<br />
Table 3. Physical characteristics <strong>of</strong> South Fork <strong>of</strong> the<br />
Little Barren River watershed, Kentucky.<br />
Area<br />
Forest cover<br />
Lakes and ponds<br />
Slope <strong>of</strong> main stream<br />
Length <strong>of</strong> main stream<br />
Available soil water capacity<br />
Index <strong>of</strong> USDA hydrologic soil group<br />
Average soil depth<br />
Average soil permeability<br />
Average permeability <strong>of</strong> upper soil horizon<br />
II Rock I' volume<br />
<strong>Water</strong> availability index<br />
47.4 km2<br />
62 %<br />
0.11 %<br />
0.32 %<br />
15.96 km<br />
17.68 cm<br />
2.30<br />
84.84 cm<br />
3.02 cm/hr<br />
3.35 cm/hr<br />
2.25 km3<br />
2.0
552<br />
The mean annual run<strong>of</strong>f for the South Fork <strong>of</strong> the Little<br />
Barren River is 50.17 cm. Thus an error <strong>of</strong> 1 percent represents<br />
an average annual error in the simulated run<strong>of</strong>f <strong>of</strong> O .5 cm. When<br />
the model parameters were calculated from equations 1 through 4,<br />
the error in the average annual run<strong>of</strong>f was 4.3 cm. Figure 1 shows<br />
a portion <strong>of</strong> the simulated and observed streamflows for the watersheds.<br />
The simulated monthly run<strong>of</strong>f shown in this figure were<br />
obtained using parameters calculated from equations 1 through 4<br />
in Haan's [6] wateryield model.<br />
Again it is cautioned that these<br />
equations may not produce reliable parameter estimates for regions<br />
hydrologically different than Kentucky. The technique <strong>of</strong> deriving<br />
parameter prediction equations should, however, be valid else-<br />
where.<br />
Methods b, c, and d <strong>of</strong> table 4 illustrate how a few years <strong>of</strong><br />
streamflow data can be used to estimate model parameters which in<br />
turn can be used to simulate long traces <strong>of</strong> monthly flows. The<br />
variable nature <strong>of</strong> streamflow from year to year is apparent in<br />
the run<strong>of</strong>f records from this watershed. As an example the first<br />
three years <strong>of</strong> the 22 year record produced the highest, third<br />
highest, and sixth highest annual run<strong>of</strong>f. The average annual run-<br />
<strong>of</strong>f for the first three years was 75.79 cm as compared to 50.17 cm<br />
for the entire period <strong>of</strong> record. It was these three wet years<br />
that were used in determining the model parameters indicated in<br />
table 4 under methods b, c, and d. This indicates that even<br />
though the years used in obtaining the model parameters may not be<br />
representative, reasonable estimates <strong>of</strong> streamflow can still be<br />
obtained.<br />
Table 4 also indicates that the accuracy <strong>of</strong> the simulation<br />
depends on the years used in determining the model parameters.<br />
The fact that using two years <strong>of</strong> flow data to obtain the<br />
parameter values produced better simulated results for the entire<br />
22 year period than did the parameters obtained from three years<br />
<strong>of</strong> data is not unusual; however, in general the more years used<br />
to obtain the parameters, the better will be the simulated<br />
results.<br />
Method e consisted <strong>of</strong> (1) optimizing the model on the first<br />
year <strong>of</strong> record, (2) simulating the entire 22. years <strong>of</strong> flow <strong>with</strong><br />
these parameters, (3) reoptimizing the model on the 2 years from<br />
the entire 22 year record that produced the poorest fit, and<br />
(4) finally determining the final parameters as a weighted<br />
average <strong>of</strong> the resulting two optimum sets <strong>of</strong> parameters where the<br />
weighting factors are the sum <strong>of</strong> the deviations <strong>of</strong> observed flows<br />
from simulated flows. The parameters obtained in this manner
Table 4. Methods used to optimize parameters on S.F.L. Barren<br />
River and summary <strong>of</strong> simulation results.<br />
Method<br />
~<br />
Des cri D ti on<br />
(a)<br />
íb 1<br />
Parameters calculated from equations 1-4.<br />
Parameters determined by optimization on first year <strong>of</strong><br />
data.<br />
(Cl Parameters determined by optimization on first two years<br />
<strong>of</strong> data.<br />
(dl<br />
(e)<br />
Parameters determined by optimization on first three<br />
years <strong>of</strong> data.<br />
Parameters optimized by Jarboe 181.<br />
Percent Correlation<br />
C<br />
fmax 'ma,<br />
Method Error Coefficient Slope cm/hr cm/day cm<br />
(a) 8.64 0.91 0.93 3.58 0.21 13.33 0.49<br />
(b) 10.13 0.87 0.96 3.45 0.25 16.38 0.54<br />
(c) 2.19 O .92 0.91 3.58 0.20 . . 12.57 0.54<br />
(d) 9.38 O .92 0.89 5.61 0.22 11.81 0.69<br />
(e) O .56 o .91 0.92 3.30 0.22 12.45 0.58<br />
when used <strong>with</strong> the watershed model were able to simulate the 22<br />
years <strong>of</strong> record <strong>with</strong> an average annual error <strong>of</strong> o<strong>nl</strong>y 0.56 percent<br />
or 0.28 cm. Obviously this technique cannot be used on a data<br />
scarce watershed. It is included here o<strong>nl</strong>y to provide an<br />
indication <strong>of</strong> the ability <strong>of</strong> the model to simulate monthly stream-<br />
flows.<br />
This model like most parametric hydrologic models, is<br />
in a constant state <strong>of</strong> change as improvements are incorporated to<br />
make the model easier to use, to reduce computer processing time<br />
and to increase the accuracy <strong>of</strong> the simulations.<br />
FS<br />
553
554<br />
SUMMARY<br />
Two procedures for using a four parameter water yield<br />
model for simulating traces <strong>of</strong> monthly streamflaw from watersheds<br />
<strong>with</strong> either no or very limited streamflow information are<br />
presented. The two procedures are (1) to relate the model<br />
parameters to watershed physical characteristics using stream-<br />
flow data from watersheds located near the watershed <strong>of</strong> interest<br />
or (2) to establish a short term gaging program on the stream<br />
draining the watershed and use these streamflow records to<br />
determine the model parameters. Once the model parameters are<br />
determined, long streamflow traces can be generated using either<br />
measured or synthetic daily rainfall. These two procedures were<br />
illustrated on a watershed in Kentucky and demonstrated that<br />
reasonably accurate estimates <strong>of</strong> monthly streamflow can be<br />
obtained.<br />
Acknowledgements: The work in which this report is based was<br />
supported in part by the Kentucky Division <strong>of</strong> <strong>Water</strong> and in part<br />
by the Kentucky Agricultural Experiment Station as a contribution<br />
to Southern Regional Project S-53 "Factors Affecting <strong>Water</strong> Yields<br />
from Small <strong>Water</strong>sheds and Shallow Ground Aquifers". The paper<br />
is published <strong>with</strong> the approval <strong>of</strong> the Director <strong>of</strong> the Kentucky<br />
Agricultural Experiment Station.
1.<br />
2.<br />
3.<br />
4.<br />
5.<br />
6.<br />
7.<br />
8.<br />
BIBLIOGRAPHY<br />
555<br />
Crawford, N. H. and R. K. Linsley. (1966). Digital simul-<br />
ation in hydrology: Stanford watershed model IV. Technical<br />
Report 39 , Stanford University , Department <strong>of</strong> Civil<br />
Engineering, Stanford, California.<br />
Holtan, H. N. and N. C. Lopez. (1971). USDAHL-70 Model <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>Water</strong>shed <strong>Hydrology</strong>. Technical Bulletin No. 1435, Agricultural<br />
Research Service, U. S. Department <strong>of</strong> Agriculture, Washington,<br />
D.C. 84 pp.<br />
Tennessee Valley Authority. (1972). Upper Bear Creek<br />
Experimental Project: A continuous daily streamflow model.<br />
Division <strong>of</strong> <strong>Water</strong> Control Planning, Hydraulic Data Branch,<br />
Knoxville, Tennessee. 99 pp.<br />
Liou, E. Y. (1970). OPSET: Program for computerized<br />
selection <strong>of</strong> watershed parameter values for the Stanford<br />
<strong>Water</strong>shed Model. University <strong>of</strong> Kentucky <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong><br />
Research Report 34, Lexington, Kentucky.<br />
Ross, G. A. (1970). The Stanford <strong>Water</strong>shed Model: The<br />
correlation <strong>of</strong> parameter values selected by a computerized<br />
procedure <strong>with</strong> measureable physical characteristics <strong>of</strong> the<br />
watershed. University <strong>of</strong> Kentucky <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Institute<br />
Research Report 35 , Lexington, Kentucky.<br />
Haan, C. T. (1972). A water yield model for small watersheds.<br />
<strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Research 8 (No. 1) , pp 58-69.<br />
Jarboe, J. E. and C. T. Haan. (1972). Calibration <strong>of</strong> a four-<br />
parameter water yield model to small ungaged watersheds in<br />
Kentucky. Paper No. 73-207 for presentation at the 1973<br />
Annual Meeting <strong>of</strong> the American Society <strong>of</strong> Agricultural<br />
Engineers, Lexington, Kentucky, June 17-20, 1973.<br />
Jarboe, J. E. (1972). Calibration <strong>of</strong> a four-parameter water<br />
yield model for use on small, ungaged watersheds in Kentucky.<br />
Unpublished M. S. Thesis in Civil Engineering Library , University<br />
<strong>of</strong> Kentucky, Lexington, Kentucky.
556<br />
20[ PART OF<br />
- S.F.L. BARREN R.<br />
- RUNOFF RECORD<br />
- -<br />
OBSERVED RO O<br />
SIMULATED RO -<br />
TIME<br />
Figure 1. Example <strong>of</strong> monthly streamflaw simulation<br />
results using calculated model parameters.
AB ST RACT<br />
OBTAINING DEFICIENT INFORMATION BY SOLVING<br />
INVERSE PROilLEMS FOR MATHEMATICAL RUNOFF MODELS<br />
V.I. Koren and L.S. Kutchment?:<br />
Possibilities are considered for increase <strong>of</strong> deficient<br />
information for extending observation series by solving the<br />
"inverse problemt1 for mathematical run<strong>of</strong>f models. The results<br />
<strong>of</strong> applying the theory <strong>of</strong> "improperly posed problems'' are<br />
presented. Examples are given for representing hydrological,<br />
geometrical and hydraulic characteristics <strong>of</strong> the basin by<br />
lumped and distributed parameter run<strong>of</strong>f models.<br />
RESUME<br />
Les auteurs examinent les possibilités de la resolution<br />
du problème inverse appliquée aux modèles mathématiques d'eco!<br />
lement, en vue de compléter les lacunes des séries d'observa-<br />
tions et d'étendre la période couverte par ces séries. Ils ex-<br />
posent les résultats qui ont été obtenus par l'application de<br />
la théorie des problèmes posés incorrectement. Ils citent des<br />
exemples de détermination des caractéristiques hydrologiques,<br />
topographiques et hydrauliques a l'aide de modèles d'ecoulement<br />
globaux ou matriciels.<br />
:k Hidrometeorological Centre <strong>of</strong> the USSR.
558<br />
Mathematical modelling <strong>of</strong> hydrological processes is increas-<br />
ingly used to provide for missing information and to extend hydrolo-<br />
gical time series. Mathematical models are predominantly used for<br />
the solution <strong>of</strong> the so-called 'direct problem', consisting <strong>of</strong> deriv-<br />
ation <strong>of</strong> unknown hydrological variables by solving respective differ-<br />
ential equations <strong>with</strong> known coefficients and known initial and bound-<br />
ary conditions, In a large number <strong>of</strong> cases it is necessary to solve<br />
the 'inverse problem' namely to find the coefficients and establish<br />
the initial and boundary conditions using observed values <strong>of</strong> the<br />
hydrological variables included in the equations. This approach has<br />
as yet gained relatively rare use due to the fact that the solution<br />
<strong>of</strong> the 'inverse problem' is more difficult than that <strong>of</strong> theldirect<br />
problem'. The solution <strong>of</strong> the 'inverse problem' may be circumvented<br />
by multiple solutions <strong>of</strong> the 'direct problem' for example by the<br />
methods <strong>of</strong> trial and error and subsequent optimization. Thia may<br />
lead however to a non-unique or inferior solution. The principal<br />
difficulty in the solution <strong>of</strong> the inverse problem consists in the<br />
fact that it may be incorrectly posed and thus leads to the non-<br />
existence <strong>of</strong> some or any initial conditions or leadsto a solution<br />
in which a small change <strong>of</strong> initial conditions (data) due for example<br />
to observational errors, results in major changes in the results.<br />
This has caused in the past a reluctance toward the use <strong>of</strong> this<br />
method, since the solution being <strong>of</strong> very low accuracy and high un-<br />
certainty casts doubt on its physical significance.<br />
A number <strong>of</strong> studies were made in recent years (particularly<br />
by A.N. Tikhonov and his school) aiming at the correct posing <strong>of</strong><br />
the problem by establishing the necessary conditions for it.<br />
A.N. Tikhonov has shown that it is possible to u13e a priori inform-<br />
ation on the solution to ensure a continuous dependance <strong>of</strong> the<br />
solution <strong>of</strong> an incorrectly posed problem on its initial conditions<br />
and to derive special algorithm:: which prevent bringing out the solution<br />
outside the limits <strong>of</strong> its uniqueness and <strong>of</strong> the existence <strong>of</strong> its initial<br />
conditions. In particular it made possible to solve <strong>with</strong> sufficient<br />
stability such classical incorrectly-posed problems as the integral<br />
equation <strong>of</strong> the first type, algebraic systems <strong>with</strong> improper initial<br />
conditions, the Cauchy problem c?f the Laplace equation and others.<br />
The theory <strong>of</strong> the 'inverse problem' has thus stimulated the formu-<br />
lation <strong>of</strong> algorithms used in many scientific and technical fields.<br />
The method was particularly useful in geophysics, where it permitted<br />
the solving, for example, <strong>of</strong> problems <strong>of</strong> determination <strong>of</strong> rock charac-<br />
teristics not accessible for direct measurement as well as restora-<br />
tion <strong>of</strong> missing information, to cite o<strong>nl</strong>y the most important points.<br />
The use <strong>of</strong> this method in hydrology appears also as most promising.<br />
Examples <strong>of</strong> such studies, used in hydrological practice, are given<br />
below. They illustrate also the principles and possibilities <strong>of</strong> the<br />
theory <strong>of</strong> incorrectly posed problems.<br />
1. Determination <strong>of</strong> the input functions <strong>of</strong> the models<br />
<strong>with</strong> lump parameters<br />
Let us suppose that the process <strong>of</strong> transforming an input h(t)<br />
in the catohment (effective rainfall or an inflow) into an output<br />
Q(t) can be described by the Duhamel integral:
559<br />
where P(t) is some known function <strong>of</strong> influence. Then having the observations<br />
on Q(t) and knowing the function P( t) (by historic observations or<br />
from physiographic and hydraulic data) it is possible using (1) to derive<br />
h(t). Thus an improperly posed problem is solved - consisting <strong>of</strong> an integral<br />
equation <strong>of</strong> the first type. It is possible to solve this problem<br />
on the basis <strong>of</strong> A.N. Tikhonov's algorithm. Integral (1) is replaced by<br />
a summation according to the method <strong>of</strong> rectangles and a smoothed functional<br />
curve is constructed:<br />
-b<br />
3<br />
where Q = a vector, designating the Ordinates <strong>of</strong> the given hydrograph Q(t);<br />
h = a vector <strong>of</strong> the unknown ordinates h A = a matrix <strong>with</strong> elements<br />
5'<br />
P ; d= a positive Constant. Finding the minimum <strong>of</strong> this functional<br />
mk&'it possible to receive a sequence <strong>of</strong> stable solutions %, which<br />
converge to the accurate solution providing there are no errors in the<br />
given data. However since there are always errors in these, changing<br />
the parameter &(called parameter <strong>of</strong> regularization) we select such<br />
solution which corresponds best to the a priori information about the<br />
function h(t). For exam e good results are obtained <strong>with</strong> the aid <strong>of</strong><br />
the condition Th(t)dt=$(t)dt.<br />
o<br />
Other kinds <strong>of</strong> a priori information, allowing the narrowing<br />
<strong>of</strong> the interval <strong>of</strong> unknown solutions, may be a suggestion on the smoothness<br />
<strong>of</strong> the solution, the non-negativeness <strong>of</strong> the ordinates, the closeness<br />
to some known function and so on. Naturally, the narrower the interval<br />
<strong>of</strong> the solution, the higher accuraoy will be obtained.<br />
Results in using<br />
functional (2) to determine the input functions <strong>of</strong> the run<strong>of</strong>f models,<br />
described by the Duhamel integral, are presented in greater detail<br />
in (3)' where examples <strong>of</strong> constnicting effective rainfall, hydropower<br />
station releases and snowmelt intensity are treated. Another approach<br />
to the solution <strong>of</strong> the inverse problems for models described by the<br />
Duhamel integral (linear models <strong>with</strong> lump parameters) are indicated in<br />
(6).<br />
2. Determination <strong>of</strong> geometric and hydraulic charactexistics<br />
<strong>of</strong> river channels using observations <strong>of</strong> flow<br />
To describe unstea9flow in a river channel Saint Venant<br />
equations may be used:<br />
(3)
560<br />
where 2 (x,t) = stage at point x at time t, Q(x,t) = discharge, K(x,z)<br />
forces <strong>of</strong> resistance1 g= acceleration <strong>of</strong> gravity. Because <strong>of</strong> great<br />
variability <strong>of</strong> geometry and roughness <strong>of</strong> the river channels the<br />
functions F(x,z) and K(x,z) determined by the observations in<br />
separate points are not quite representative for the whole river reach,<br />
even <strong>with</strong> large frequency <strong>of</strong> observations. Thus a problem <strong>of</strong> determining<br />
the averaged relations P(x,z) or B(x,z) = aF/aZ and K(x,z) by observations<br />
<strong>of</strong> flow (the determination <strong>of</strong> coefficients <strong>of</strong> the system (3))<br />
is <strong>of</strong> great significance for the establishment <strong>of</strong> the most characteristic<br />
geometry and hydraulic properties <strong>of</strong> the river channel as well as<br />
for ensuring sufficient accuracy <strong>of</strong> the calculationa. It can be shown<br />
that this problem is improperly posed and for its solution it is<br />
necessary to derive special calculating algorithms. We shall discuss<br />
below two <strong>of</strong> the approaches tried by us in solving this problem.<br />
(A) The discharges and <strong>Water</strong> levels are known in a rather large<br />
number <strong>of</strong> sites.<br />
Integration <strong>of</strong> the continuity equation (3) <strong>with</strong> respect to x,<br />
leads to:<br />
Finite differences are substituted for the derivatives and<br />
instead <strong>of</strong> an integral it is possible to construct for every time moment j<br />
the following system <strong>of</strong> equationst<br />
In order to solve this system it is necessary to have Q(x,t) F(x,o) and<br />
F(o,t). As the problem is improperly posed the solution <strong>of</strong> the<br />
system (5) is unstable. For its regularization the solution <strong>of</strong><br />
A.N. Tikhonov's functional is <strong>with</strong> introducing initial approximation.<br />
As a result for every time suchFarefoanä which correspond to the<br />
minimum <strong>of</strong> the functional.
561<br />
where 2 is the given initial approximation, d= positive parameters,<br />
thus a golution is found which not o<strong>nl</strong>y secures the minimum <strong>of</strong> square<br />
deviation <strong>of</strong> the right part <strong>of</strong> the system (5) from the left part, but<br />
at the same time it is least deviated from the initial approximation.<br />
The condition <strong>of</strong> functional extreme gives:<br />
To select the quantitydmethod <strong>of</strong> discrepancy has been used.<br />
The idea <strong>of</strong> this methori COnSiStS in conforming the accuracy <strong>of</strong> the<br />
problem's solution to the accuracy <strong>of</strong> observed data.<br />
It is supposed that the error0 <strong>of</strong> the given information forming<br />
discrepancy <strong>of</strong> the system (5) are known and an d is found which<br />
secures this discrepancy 8'. It is possible to prove that if the<br />
functional (6) is used the parameterdsecuring the given discrepancy<br />
is unique. The initial pproximation can be made in a rather crude<br />
mannerbarticularly for 9 = O), however giving a good initial approximation<br />
contributes toam-aocurate optimum d. Use <strong>of</strong> the initial<br />
approximations provides great possibilities for improvement <strong>of</strong> the<br />
solution by introduction <strong>of</strong> a priori information. Such a priori<br />
information can be an empirical relationship between geometrical and<br />
hydraulic characteristics, observed in separate sites, and different<br />
theoretical formulas (for example, we have used the equation <strong>of</strong> the<br />
typical form <strong>of</strong> river Otrinnel derived from the principle <strong>of</strong> minimum<br />
dissipation <strong>of</strong> energy).<br />
The values <strong>of</strong> F (x,t) found according to equation (4) have<br />
been used for determining the characteristics <strong>of</strong> the resistant forces.<br />
For this purpose the momentum equation has transcribed:<br />
Derivatives <strong>with</strong> respect to t have been replaced by forward directed<br />
finite differences and the integrals have been replaced by sums de-<br />
rived by the method <strong>of</strong> rectangles. The resulting algebraical systems<br />
have been solved for all time intervals <strong>with</strong> the help <strong>of</strong> the same<br />
algorithm as the system (5) (<strong>with</strong>out the initial approximation).<br />
Aa for determining F(x,t) and K(x,t) the discrepancy has been<br />
taken equal to 5 per cent <strong>of</strong> the average module from the left integral<br />
equation's part.<br />
This method has been tested on data obtained by special<br />
observations <strong>of</strong> unsteady movement in the merca river and it has<br />
given satiafactory results (a comparison ha8 been made between the<br />
relations F(x,z) and K(x,z) which have been derived by different<br />
floods by measurements in separate sites) (see figure 1).
562<br />
(B) The stages are known in a rather great number <strong>of</strong> sites and<br />
the discharges o<strong>nl</strong>y in the first and the last site.<br />
Let us integrate the continuity equation <strong>with</strong> respect to<br />
time (in the interval (Ti, Ti+l)) and to distance (in the interval<br />
(0, LI):<br />
to solve it in the form:<br />
where ‘y- the Chebishev polinomials. Let us put (10) in (9):<br />
No terms <strong>with</strong> zero polinomial are in the left part <strong>of</strong> the equation (li),<br />
because in this case the integral would be equal to zero. The equation<br />
(li) is therefore not sufficient for the full determination <strong>of</strong> the<br />
function (10). However it can be used for determining the function<br />
B(x,z), which can be presented:<br />
To find the coeffiaients we shall construct a system <strong>of</strong> equations<br />
(their number must not b e h w than Y=(n +l)m , and change the limita<br />
<strong>of</strong> the integration <strong>with</strong> respect to time in (dl so as to embrace the<br />
whole amplitude <strong>of</strong> variation <strong>of</strong> discharges and <strong>of</strong> stages on the rising<br />
as well as on the falling, part <strong>of</strong> the hydrograph. Let us write this<br />
system in the matrix forms<br />
Bere is the matrix <strong>of</strong> +th order, its elements are equal
563<br />
id- vector <strong>of</strong> the unknown coefficients $(B. x - right part <strong>with</strong> elements:<br />
Since the system (13) is unstable, ita solution is possible<br />
<strong>with</strong> A.N. Tikhonov's functional. AS a result the following system is<br />
found :<br />
where%'* - matrix transformed <strong>with</strong> relation top, E - the unit matrix.<br />
The parameter <strong>of</strong> regularization d has been determined from the<br />
conditions <strong>of</strong> minimum <strong>of</strong> the function<br />
where A.PP,,), A (dp) - j-th elements for the two successive<br />
values JO(. +or determining (ni + i) coefficients entering in (10)<br />
we shall replace in (9) discharge <strong>with</strong> the product <strong>of</strong> a cross section<br />
area and the velocity <strong>of</strong> the current U(x,t) and shall make the proper<br />
integration <strong>with</strong> respect to time and to distance. Putting in the<br />
resulting equation the relation (10) we shall find:<br />
Here C - matrix <strong>of</strong> (nI + I) x N-th order <strong>with</strong> elements<br />
The rest <strong>of</strong> symbols are the same. lystem (17) is solved by analogy<br />
<strong>with</strong> system (13). Having determined 3 and it is possible, asing<br />
relations (10) and (12) to find function B(x,z).<br />
This approach has<br />
been tested on the data <strong>of</strong> special observations in the Svir river.<br />
In figure 2 functions B(x,z) for some sites, calculated by relation (10)<br />
are shown: furthermore widths were determined aocording to topographic<br />
data. For controlling the results <strong>of</strong> these calculations the discharges<br />
in-the intermediate sites have been determined <strong>with</strong> the help <strong>of</strong> equation:
564<br />
These discharges have been found as very close to those observed.<br />
The coefficients received from the different floods have turned out<br />
to be quite simila % and this fact indicates their sufficient stability.<br />
Let vs see now a scheme for determining the hydraulic'characteristics<br />
<strong>of</strong> river channels. We use the dynamic St. Venant equation, assuming<br />
that the ineLtial terms are equal to zero<br />
Putting (18) into (19) and integrating <strong>with</strong> respect to distance in<br />
the interval (0,ï) we gett<br />
às earlier we shall find the solution in the form:<br />
Putting (21) into (20) and using Tikhonov's functional by analogy <strong>with</strong><br />
the previous one we construct the system <strong>of</strong> equations for determining<br />
the coefficients Dks:<br />
-b<br />
where D - vector <strong>of</strong> unknown coefficients, 3- vector <strong>with</strong> elements<br />
&=Z(t) - Z(t), - matrix <strong>of</strong> (n2+1).(m2+l) N-th order <strong>with</strong> elements<br />
The function B(t, t) hae been calculated according to relation<br />
(12) including the earlier determined coefficients Ilks. The found<br />
functions have been oompared <strong>with</strong> the functions determined by the method<br />
<strong>of</strong> optimization. It was found that a strong smoothing is observed.<br />
This can be eliminated by taking logarithms in equation (19).
References<br />
565
566<br />
I50<br />
SO<br />
/Iff<br />
96<br />
a 0<br />
e<br />
E<br />
a *'<br />
0<br />
8<br />
e<br />
O<br />
e<br />
8<br />
b
x r acm<br />
I l<br />
I<br />
I<br />
I<br />
I<br />
I<br />
I<br />
15.0 250 2.50<br />
I I I<br />
200 390 4uu<br />
.x= 3.9cm<br />
I I I<br />
i50 250 350<br />
i<br />
/<br />
567
ABS TRACT<br />
THE MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF<br />
WATER BALANCE FOR DATA-SCARCE AREAS<br />
by<br />
Nabil R<strong>of</strong>ail<br />
The mathematical model <strong>of</strong> water balance for data-scarce areas<br />
is designed. The solution <strong>of</strong> this problem is considered <strong>of</strong> general<br />
type <strong>of</strong> boundary conditions.<br />
The equations <strong>of</strong> motion and mass conservation lead to the lin<br />
ear parabolic partial differential equation. The equation is solved<br />
by implicit scheme and the alternating direction procedure is appli<br />
ed for computation. The numerical procedure has second order accu-<br />
rracy and is unconditionally stable. As it contains no iterative --<br />
routines, it is also exceptionally economical in computing time and<br />
memory requiments. Therefore the procedure is recommended for areas<br />
<strong>of</strong> inadequate hydrological data.<br />
RESUME<br />
L'auteur décrit un modèle mathématique de bilan hydrologique<br />
destiné aux régions pour lesquelles on dispose de peu de données. -<br />
La solution du probleme est envisagée pour des conditions aux limi-<br />
tes générales.<br />
Les équations du mouvement et de la conservation de masse con<br />
duisent à une équation aux différentielles partielles linéaire para<br />
bolique. Cette équation constitue un système implicite qu'on résoud<br />
par approximations successives. Le mode de calcul numérique est in-<br />
conditionnellement stable et permet une précision du second ordre.<br />
Comme il ne contient pas de procédé itératif, il est aussi exception<br />
nellement économique en temps de calcul e; en dimension de mémoire.<br />
I1 est donc recommande pour les régions ou les données hydrologiques<br />
sont insuffisantes.<br />
~~ ~ ~<br />
* <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Dept. Desert Institute, Mataria, Cairo, Egypt.<br />
-
570<br />
Introduction<br />
The system <strong>of</strong> equations <strong>of</strong> motion and equations <strong>of</strong> mass con-<br />
servation for the ground water flow leads to linear pzrabolic di-<br />
fferential equations. In the present work the impervious bed has<br />
been considered <strong>of</strong> any configuration and the recharge or dischar-<br />
ge from the aquifer has been introduced. Moreover the effect <strong>of</strong><br />
boundnries are considered either <strong>of</strong> a river or <strong>of</strong> a continuation<br />
<strong>of</strong> the aquifer <strong>of</strong> different parameters. The present aaterial deals<br />
<strong>with</strong> the solution <strong>of</strong> the balance equation that can be easily app-<br />
lied for areas <strong>of</strong> inadequate hydrologicd. data.<br />
Formulation <strong>of</strong> muation<br />
The aquifer is considered homogenous and the effect <strong>of</strong> the<br />
impervious bed is &%Ven. According to Dupuit assumption, the equ-<br />
ation <strong>of</strong> motion cam be written as followsj ( see Fig. i) ,<br />
v = - k 2 i h - t ~ ) = - k a h - k dz (2)<br />
"Y "Y<br />
The equation <strong>of</strong> mass conservation can be considered as follows;
!he dischuge or the recharge to the aquifer is considered as a<br />
:unction <strong>of</strong> time to the exposed area i.e. N = f ( x,y,t) equat-<br />
tons (1),(2) and (3) proYide the following equation system,<br />
- k d(h+z) ah<br />
- k h QQ(lZz'<br />
- kh --<br />
9X ax<br />
Q'íh+z) - k a(h+z) ah - N =a (4)<br />
9 Y* ay al/<br />
?or simplifying the solution <strong>of</strong> equation (4), Boussensq acsump-<br />
:ion ( the powers <strong>of</strong> derivatives <strong>of</strong> one order, SLTB <strong>of</strong> lower ma-<br />
pitude than the derivatives themselves ) is applied, therefore<br />
the system will be,<br />
kherefore equation (5) can be written in the alternate farm,<br />
571
512<br />
\A consistent imdicit difference scheme<br />
The three implicit difference scheme has been applied for equ-<br />
ations (6) and (7), considering the grid spacing <strong>of</strong> A5 and time<br />
intervai At, ( see fig. 2 >. Thus leads to;<br />
AS<br />
and (g), such that;<br />
Equation (10) is found by Taylor's series expansion, to be term<br />
by term consistent <strong>with</strong> equation (5). The von Neuinann method is<br />
used for examining the stability <strong>of</strong> the finite deference scheme.<br />
It has been found out that the amplification factor 5 1, that<br />
1mAS<br />
the original component e will not increase <strong>with</strong> time.<br />
Therefore the scheme can be considered absolutely consistent to<br />
second order accuracy, i.e. to O ( Asz, A tz), and absolutely
unconditionally stable. Thus it is not unexpected as the applied<br />
scheme is implicit.<br />
Alternating Direction Algorithon<br />
Equations (8) and (9) can be written respectiviely in the<br />
following form,<br />
@here, A,B,C and D are coefficients <strong>of</strong> known values,i.e.,<br />
573
574<br />
Each <strong>of</strong> equations <strong>of</strong> equation5 (11) a d (12) forms a tridiago1<br />
al vector system that may be solved using the aìternating directior<br />
algorithm (e.g. Richtmyer and Mooton,1967 1, by introducing auxili-<br />
ary variable E and P in the x sweep as follows:<br />
Introducing (11) in (131, that provides recurrence relations;<br />
)-I , ,$= Cq- A, $+,)(A,%+,+%)<br />
5<br />
= - CJ ( AJ El,, +B,<br />
Method <strong>of</strong> Computation:<br />
Thensgion <strong>of</strong> interest in the x-y plane in which the numurical<br />
solution <strong>of</strong> equation (5) is carried out, is divided by a mesh <strong>of</strong> g~<br />
id lines. The distance between grid lines need not be the same, ths<br />
is considered one <strong>of</strong> the reasons for recommending this metnod <strong>of</strong> cc<br />
putption for areas <strong>of</strong> inadequate hydrological data? Equation (8) is<br />
solved for the x sweep for the time level (9) to the time level<br />
( n + j$ 2, and equation (9) for y-sweep for the time level ( n +<br />
to the time level ( n 4 1 ). The recurrence can be initiated from<br />
boundpry conditions <strong>of</strong> any two - point type; two velocities ( con-<br />
tinuiation <strong>of</strong> the aquifer ), two depths ( bounded by rivers ), one<br />
velocity and one depth.<br />
If the boundary is a continuiation <strong>of</strong> the aquifer, this could<br />
be illustrated as follows;
.s the boundary point is situated at JJ A x, the equation (14) can<br />
expressed as follows,<br />
r the, case where the boundary is bounded by a river, therefore;<br />
575<br />
The comput.afbncan be applied for the x-sweep by determining the<br />
zfficients P and P from one bounary to the other bounduy and bet-<br />
3n them for all grid points. Thus the new values <strong>of</strong> the potentials<br />
the time level ( n + % ) can be determined from the recurrence re-<br />
-<br />
;ion (13). These new values <strong>of</strong> the time level ( n + M ) are used<br />
? the computation <strong>of</strong> the coefficients <strong>of</strong> y-sweep and the values <strong>of</strong><br />
;ential at the end <strong>of</strong> time level ( n + 1 ) have been found out ( see<br />
IW chart diagram ). This method is known as the multi - sweep method.
576<br />
Conclusions<br />
A program in AIGOL - 60 has been executed on ICL - 1900 machine<br />
for the water balance equation. The program was tested for different<br />
boundaries ( e.g. river, dyke, .*) <strong>of</strong> different parameters.<br />
As the method <strong>of</strong> solution is based mai<strong>nl</strong>y on the three implicit<br />
difference scheme that there is no conditions for choosing the dis-<br />
tance between the grid points and the time interval A t. Use this<br />
procedure contains no iterative routines and it has been found out<br />
that this method is exceptionally ecomomical ln computing time and<br />
memory requifements and the solution is considered <strong>of</strong> high accuracy<br />
Thus this method <strong>of</strong> computation is recommended for areas <strong>of</strong> in-<br />
adequate hydrological data.
BOR n = 1 STEP 1 UNTIL nn<br />
I<br />
[COMPUTATION i)F h AT n + $ 1<br />
1 -[h<br />
.y<br />
= Km h<br />
J.<br />
,COMPUTATION OF SWBE2 IN Y-DIHECTION<br />
FOR J = 1 STEP 1 UNTIL JJ<br />
\'<br />
i<br />
COU'UTATION OF SwIEE;p IN X-DIWTIÙN<br />
c<br />
[COMPUTATIUN FOR E & F FOB kk - 1 to i]<br />
1<br />
ICOMPUTAIION OF h AT n+l<br />
I<br />
FLOW CRART DIAGRAM<br />
577
570<br />
Symbo 1 e<br />
h : heigtit <strong>of</strong> water table above the impervious bed.<br />
u,v: the flow components. in x and y directions respectiv;aly.<br />
k : Coefficient <strong>of</strong> permeability.<br />
: Coefficient <strong>of</strong> specific yield.<br />
ïV t intensi- <strong>of</strong> infiltration to the ground water table.<br />
AS : the grid spacing.<br />
At : the grid spacing on t-axis.<br />
JJ : the number <strong>of</strong> grid points on x-axis.<br />
kk : the number <strong>of</strong> grid pointe on y-axis<br />
nn : the number <strong>of</strong> grid points on t-sis.<br />
3 : any grid point on the x-axis.<br />
k : any grid point on the y-axis.<br />
n : any grid point on the t-axis.<br />
AOKNOWLEDGWT<br />
This work is sponsored in part by the <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Depart-<br />
ment <strong>of</strong> the Desert Institute, Cairo, Egypt, to which the author is<br />
gratef uì .
Literature<br />
1. Abbott M.B. ( 1967 ). Difference methods, Lecture note, Inter-<br />
national course <strong>of</strong> Hydraulic Engineering, Delft, Holland.<br />
2. Mitchell A.R. ( 1969 ). Computational methods in partial diff-<br />
erential equations, John Wiley.<br />
3. Nabil R<strong>of</strong>ail ( 1972 ). The numerical computation <strong>of</strong> parabolic<br />
equation using inplicit difference scheme and alternating<br />
direction methods, gth Conference on statistics and computat-<br />
ional science, Cairo, Egypt. pp. 572~- 593.<br />
4. Richtmyer R.D. and Mooton K.P. ( 1967 ). Difference mothods for<br />
ijlitial value problems, Interscience.<br />
5. Uri Shamir, (1967). The use Of computers in ground water hydrology,<br />
hydro dynamics Laboratory, Beport NQS. 105, Yasaachusetts.<br />
579
580<br />
t<br />
cr><br />
4<br />
t<br />
tn<br />
0<br />
r:<br />
3ig.l Diagramatic representation <strong>of</strong> unconfined aquifer<br />
Y<br />
a R U<br />
J+1 J J-1<br />
k-1 n+l<br />
k<br />
4 k-1 n<br />
a<br />
Fig.2 The three level Scheme<br />
,<br />
'COS- AS 3
ABS TRACT<br />
DATA ACQUISITION AND METHODOLOGY FOR A SIMULATION MODEL<br />
OF THE LLOBREGAT DELTA (BARCELONA, SPAIN)<br />
Francisco VilarÓ Rigo1 y Emilio Custodio Gimena<br />
The Llobregat Delta (Barcelona) is a 80 sqKm., area supplying up to<br />
150 million cubic meters per year <strong>of</strong> water for industrial, urban and<br />
agricultural uses, in order <strong>of</strong> decreasing importance. The construction<br />
<strong>of</strong> a exploitation simulation model has been necessary in order to study<br />
carefully the new problems concequence <strong>of</strong> a increasing rate <strong>of</strong><br />
abstraction, the conversion <strong>of</strong> extense irrigation lands in industrial<br />
areas, the dredging <strong>of</strong> a new harbor and the forcoming river regulation<br />
<strong>with</strong> dams. Historical data were initialy scarce. In one hand they were<br />
restricted to the rainfall and main river discharge knowledge and in<br />
the other hand to some disperse ground water level data and file <strong>of</strong><br />
well drillers logs <strong>with</strong>out interpretation. After the classification <strong>of</strong><br />
the existing data, some specific studies were iniciated in order to<br />
complete the knowledge <strong>of</strong> the system and finally the model was<br />
constructed, followed <strong>with</strong> an important stage <strong>of</strong> value adjustment,<br />
specially those related to intermediate aquitard properties. The<br />
ajusted model has been used in several stages to forecast the response<br />
to preestablished possible future situations.<br />
Key words: scarce data, model, adjustment, exploration.<br />
RESUMEN<br />
El delta del Llobregat (Barcelona) constituye una zona de 80 km2,<br />
que llega a proporcionar hasta 150 millones de m3 anuales de agua para<br />
usos industriales, urbanos y agrícolas, por orden decreciente de impor<br />
tancia. Ha sido necesaria la construcci6n de un modelo de simulacibn -<br />
de la explotaci6n a fin de estudiar con detalle los problemas apareci-<br />
dos a causa de la cada vez más intensa explotación, transformación de<br />
áreas agrícolas extensas en industriales, apagado de un nuevo puerto y<br />
próxima regulación del río mediante embalses. tos datos histbricos --<br />
existentes inicialmente eran escasos. Por un lado se reducían al cono-<br />
cimiento de la pluviometrla y del caudal del rio principal y por otro<br />
lado a algunos datos esporadicos de niveles del agua y un archivo de -<br />
perfiles de pozos sin elaborar. Se han realizado estudios detallados -<br />
orientados a complementar el conocimiento del sistema y finalmente se<br />
ha construido el modelo con una importante fase de ajuste de los valo-<br />
res estimados, en especial a los referentes al acuitardo intermedio. -<br />
El modelo ajustado ha sido utilizado en varias fases de previsión de -<br />
respuesta ante determinadas situaciones futuras posibles.<br />
Palabras clave: datos escasos, modelo, ajuste, explotación.<br />
( ) Comisaría de Aguas del Pirineo Oriental y Curso Internacional de -<br />
Hidrología Subterránea. Barcelona.<br />
I
582<br />
1.- LOCATION AND BACKGROUND<br />
The Bajo Llobregat is an area spreading from Barcelona<br />
Eastwards and the Garraf Limestone Massive Westwards and SW<br />
(Fig. 1). It is largly occupied by the valley <strong>of</strong> the Llobregat<br />
river and its delta, whose alluvial formations occupy around<br />
80 Km2., <strong>of</strong> which slightly over 50 Km2. correspond to the delta<br />
itself.<br />
The proximity to the important urban nucleus <strong>of</strong> Barcelona,<br />
the fertility <strong>of</strong> the land, the easy availability <strong>of</strong> water and<br />
the existence <strong>of</strong> a big market for its products, have given rise<br />
to and important agricultural and industrial development. Today,<br />
the industry is tending to take the place <strong>of</strong> farming and both<br />
are rejected by the expanding urban area <strong>of</strong> the town <strong>of</strong> Barce-<br />
lona. On the other hand,the current expansion <strong>of</strong> the Barcelona<br />
harbour, needs new service areas to be prepared, which the Bajo<br />
Llobregat easily <strong>of</strong>fers.<br />
The problems <strong>of</strong> important water extractions, <strong>of</strong> increasing<br />
interest in the sands and gravels <strong>of</strong> the delta and valley for<br />
construction, the additional communication lines, the prolifer-<br />
ation <strong>of</strong> discharges and tipping <strong>of</strong> all classes, etc., create a<br />
harmful and apprehensive climate, and leads to the destruction<br />
<strong>of</strong> the aquifers by emptying and contamination and it may produce<br />
a deep sea intrusion. Its rational administration requires a<br />
good knowledge <strong>of</strong> the characteristics and hydraulic operation<br />
<strong>of</strong> the aquifers in the area.<br />
In 1909 a detailed study was made on the groundwater<br />
hydrology <strong>of</strong> the delta (61, but the systematic and detailed<br />
studies started in 1964, which is the inicial point <strong>of</strong> a series<br />
<strong>of</strong> ‘mportant works and reports which are partly listed in the<br />
references. They have mostly been prepared by personnel <strong>of</strong> the<br />
General Hydraulic Works Board, through the East Pyrenees <strong>Water</strong><br />
Committee and the Delegation in Barcelona <strong>of</strong> the Public Works<br />
Geological Service.<br />
The complicated factors raised the need to have a simulation<br />
model <strong>of</strong> the aquifer systems available. The Public Works<br />
Geological Service built a R-C (resistors and capacities) model<br />
in 1970 as a first approximation, and almost simultaneously,<br />
the East Pyrenees Nater Board and the Public Works Geological<br />
Service prepared a digital mathematical model <strong>of</strong> the explotation,<br />
capable <strong>of</strong> further details and more flexible use (i). The main<br />
problem when building such models lies in the scanty historical<br />
data available, since the systematic control studies <strong>of</strong> the area<br />
were initiated sistematicaly after 1966.
2.- AQUIFERS IN THE AREA<br />
583<br />
Figure 2, shows the general features <strong>of</strong> the aquifers in<br />
the area, by means <strong>of</strong> three cross-sections. In the Llobregat<br />
valley, there is a single aquifer <strong>of</strong> coarse gravel which divides<br />
up in the delta entrance, into two superposed ones, separated<br />
by a silt-clayey intercalation, which increases in thickness<br />
towards the sea. Thus an upper aquifer, which is mostly a water<br />
table one,and a deep confined aquifer <strong>with</strong> a weakly semi-<br />
pervious ro<strong>of</strong> are separated. The silt intercalation narrows<br />
and becomes sandy towards the delta margins, and finally<br />
disappears, thus allowing both aquifers to lie directly above<br />
one another, and in easy hydraulic relation (8) (9) (14).<br />
The aquifer <strong>of</strong> the valley and the deep aquifer <strong>of</strong> the delta<br />
present areas <strong>of</strong> high transmissivity where there are important<br />
pumpings, whereas the upper aquifer <strong>of</strong> the delta support o<strong>nl</strong>y<br />
reduced explotation.<br />
Both the delta and the valley ape marginated by materials<br />
which may be considered as impervious.<br />
3.- EXTRACTIONS AND HYDRAULIC OPERATION<br />
In figure I, the main extractions and hydraulic conditions<br />
<strong>of</strong> the model area were shown. In the delta, the two largest<br />
pumping centres are found in Prat de Llobregat and the Free Port,<br />
and they gravitate on the deep aquifer; in the valley they lie<br />
alongside a lower end (Cornella-Sant Joan D'Espi) and neighbour-<br />
hood <strong>of</strong> Sant Feliu de Llobregat. Other extraction nuclei are<br />
found along the SU edge <strong>of</strong> the delta, besides other isolated<br />
points, served from both aquifers. The upper aquifer <strong>of</strong> the delta<br />
receives an excellent recharge from irrigation return flow and<br />
waste water discharge, and it is drained by the sea, the final<br />
stretch <strong>of</strong> the river, the drains <strong>of</strong> the airport and the marginal<br />
pumping areas. The aquifer <strong>of</strong> the valley receives its main<br />
recharge through river water infiltration and from the irrigation<br />
canals, but the permeability <strong>of</strong> the beds impedes the maintenance<br />
<strong>of</strong> a direct hydraulic connection, and a non-saturated mediun<br />
exists between water table and the bottom <strong>of</strong> the surface water.<br />
The deep aquifer <strong>of</strong> the delta receives the recharge direct from<br />
the valley or from the upper aquifer in the marginal areas or by<br />
vertical infiltration through the silt lens. These relations<br />
and actions can be seen in the double piezometric surface <strong>of</strong><br />
figure 3, and are reflected in some detailed studies based on<br />
balance criteria. (9) (10) (141, hydraulic computations (18) (19)<br />
and geohydrochemical evaluation (2) (3) (5) (8).<br />
4.- MOTIVATION OF THE MODEL<br />
Delta groundwater explotation for industrial uses has been<br />
increasing at a rapid pace during the last ten years, at the
5 84<br />
same time as normal extractions for the Barcelona supply have<br />
been dropping as a result <strong>of</strong> the direct utilization <strong>of</strong> the<br />
river water, after a suitable treatment. Total extraction<br />
however has gradually increased and it will rise possibly in<br />
the immediate future when it is necessary to reactivate the<br />
urban supply wells to meet growing âemand. The total capacity<br />
<strong>of</strong> water stored in the aquifer system and easily mobilizable,<br />
is between 100 and 150 million m3., a small figure compared<br />
<strong>with</strong> the annual extraction which non exceeds 140 million m3.,<br />
and can reach 200 <strong>with</strong> the present existing pumping capacity.<br />
This means that in the absence <strong>of</strong> recharge, in a few months,<br />
certain parts <strong>of</strong> the aquifer dry up or are left <strong>with</strong> an insuf-<br />
ficient saturated thickness to maintain vel1 discharges. The<br />
river infiltration does not increase when the extractions rise,<br />
as a result <strong>of</strong> its disconnection <strong>with</strong> the water table in the main<br />
recharge area (corresponds to the valley), and there is no other<br />
important recharge source except the sea, this inducing a<br />
steadily advancing sea water intrusion. (5) (20).<br />
The study <strong>of</strong> the effect <strong>of</strong> new extractions or <strong>of</strong> different<br />
natural or artificial hydrological, river situations, as a<br />
result <strong>of</strong> its dam regulation or water transportation to other<br />
areas and also the conversion <strong>of</strong> farming areas into industrial<br />
zones, is complex. Por this reason it was decided to built a<br />
simulation model to analyse the explotation <strong>of</strong> the ground waters,<br />
which would also help to assess the river recharge, the sea<br />
intrusion (by indirect evaluation) and the interferences.<br />
The different objectives and variables to be estimated may<br />
be summed up as follows: (4)<br />
Study <strong>of</strong> the effects <strong>of</strong> the explotation in certain places,<br />
<strong>with</strong> or <strong>with</strong>out disappearance <strong>of</strong> some <strong>of</strong> the present pumpings.<br />
Study <strong>of</strong> the artificial recharge effects by spreading and<br />
by wells, and analysis <strong>of</strong> their technical, economic and<br />
legal feasibility.<br />
Study <strong>of</strong> the effects and suitability <strong>of</strong> a recharge litoral<br />
barrier to reduce sea intrusion, in the upper aquifer, in<br />
the deep one, or in both, im selected areas.<br />
Study <strong>of</strong> the Llobregat river regulation effects and/or<br />
derivation <strong>of</strong> larger discharges for supply.<br />
Study <strong>of</strong> the suppression effects <strong>of</strong> irrigated areas or the<br />
modulation <strong>of</strong> the irrigation discharges.<br />
Study <strong>of</strong> the geotechnical problems derived from abandonment<br />
<strong>of</strong> the main current pumpings.<br />
Study <strong>of</strong> the operation <strong>of</strong> the aquifers as local reservoirs<br />
for the most adequate service <strong>of</strong> demand.
The study <strong>of</strong> these possibilities includes:<br />
1) Determination <strong>of</strong> the external balance,<br />
2) Determination <strong>of</strong> the internal balance.<br />
585<br />
3) Estimation <strong>of</strong> the fresh water discharges into the sea and<br />
river.<br />
4) Estimation <strong>of</strong> the sea water encroachment areas and their<br />
possible evolution.<br />
5) Estimation <strong>of</strong> the deficits which may turn up in the<br />
different zones.<br />
5.- MODEL NETWORK<br />
The shape <strong>of</strong> the piezometric surface, the distribution <strong>of</strong><br />
the pumpings, the plant <strong>of</strong> the aquifer system and present<br />
knowledge, advised an assymetric network, digital mathematical<br />
model, similar to the one established by the California <strong>Water</strong><br />
<strong>Resources</strong> Department (17) as being the best suited. In accordance<br />
<strong>with</strong> the already known estimation principles (12) were made the<br />
necessary adaptations for its programming and handling on the<br />
double memory IBM 1630 computer at the Computation Office <strong>of</strong> the<br />
Public Works Ministry in Madrid, and a series <strong>of</strong> special<br />
modifications in the boundary conditions. Its constructive and<br />
network details have been published on several occasions (1) (4)<br />
(15). In the delta, the two aquifers are simulated by means <strong>of</strong><br />
a double network <strong>of</strong> polygons (fig. 4) connected by a vertical<br />
conductor branch. The sea condition is established as a constant<br />
level directly for the upper aquifer and by means <strong>of</strong> a resistent<br />
element (the aquitard) for the deep aquifer. The condition <strong>of</strong> the<br />
draining river is imposed as om another constant level, and the<br />
river condition in recharge area is established giving a recharge-<br />
discharge set <strong>of</strong> figures by polygon in terms <strong>of</strong> the river discharge.<br />
6.- RESOLUTION OF INSUFFICIENCY OF DATA. ADJUSTMENT.<br />
At the time when the need for the model came about, the<br />
number <strong>of</strong> available data were small, especially regarding the<br />
length <strong>of</strong> the observation period.<br />
The number <strong>of</strong> data figures needed is very varied and com-<br />
prises those referring to the geometric form <strong>of</strong> the aquifers<br />
and their hydraulic parameters, up to those referring to the<br />
temporary and spacial distribution <strong>of</strong> the extractions, passing<br />
by the infiltration <strong>of</strong> the rainwater, the river and the irrigations<br />
(6) (7) and they should have a sufficient precision and represen-<br />
tative nature in accordance <strong>with</strong> the model network. A set <strong>of</strong> data<br />
should be available in each node and branch <strong>of</strong> the projected<br />
model.
586<br />
In this case, the geological structure was well known,<br />
owing to a high number <strong>of</strong> bore-holes (fig. 3) and wells <strong>with</strong><br />
filed lithological log, but not SO the hydraulic characteris-<br />
tics <strong>of</strong> the different formations. These values were fractionary<br />
and corresponded to some precise data <strong>of</strong> tests in piezometers<br />
and wells made very <strong>of</strong>er under difficult conditions, and some<br />
few prolonged pumping tests, <strong>with</strong> complicated interpretation<br />
due to the notable piezometric fluctuations that are produced,<br />
wich sometimes exceed a metre throughout the day.<br />
With the available data, a plan <strong>of</strong> isotransmissivities was<br />
completed and a distribution <strong>of</strong> the seepage coefficient <strong>of</strong> the<br />
aquitard (intermediary silts) was estimated, based on a few<br />
granulometric tests and geohydrochemical considerations, which<br />
o<strong>nl</strong>y gave the approximate magnitude.<br />
Clearly a model built under these circunstances,<strong>with</strong> a<br />
poorly known connection <strong>with</strong> the river, and for which there was<br />
o<strong>nl</strong>y a few partial semi-quantitive figures, mostly obtained by<br />
statistical analysis <strong>of</strong> the river discharges, supply extractions<br />
and levels in valley (131, is a long way from reproducing the<br />
reality, An adjustment process is necessary, based on comparison<br />
<strong>of</strong> its response to actions taken from the historic series and<br />
comparison <strong>with</strong> the effects observed in the aquifer. These<br />
actions are the extractions and recharges and the effects are<br />
the piezometric levels.<br />
The adjustment process requires a sufficiently long and<br />
complete set <strong>of</strong> historic data, in order to complete, correct and<br />
suit the imprecise data, or the estimated or non-existent data.<br />
This adjustment process allows some data to be corrected if<br />
other can be taken as sufficiently precise. Otherwise, no<br />
sole situation is reached, or there is no satisfactory solution<br />
nor one which responds to the real conditions <strong>of</strong> the prototype<br />
or real system. The set <strong>of</strong> historic data should be for each<br />
polygon, and this is difficult even in well known areas, and<br />
<strong>with</strong> a good systematic <strong>of</strong> measurements. In the case <strong>of</strong> the Llo-<br />
bregat delta, it was decided to take as "exact" data, despite<br />
certain uncertainties in their determination:<br />
a)<br />
b)<br />
The extractions by pumping anã the recharges by wells and<br />
drains, using as contrast criterion: for agricultural uses,<br />
the irrigated surface anã calculated water needs; for indus-<br />
trial uses, the type <strong>of</strong> production, number <strong>of</strong> workers and<br />
real production in those cases where it was known; and for<br />
supply uses, the urbanistic level and population served.<br />
The infiltrations <strong>of</strong> the rainwater, the irrigation water<br />
and run<strong>of</strong>f <strong>of</strong> the nearby areas obtained from water balances<br />
in the soil, and therefore <strong>of</strong> theoretic type. Nevertheless,<br />
as this is a mild climate area, flat and <strong>with</strong> classic<br />
irrigation crops, a small error is expected.
507<br />
c) The water losses <strong>of</strong> the canals by infiltration based on the<br />
i<strong>nl</strong>et and outlet measurements and the irrigation quantities.<br />
In winter, these irrigation quantities are almost non-existent,<br />
wich permits an acceptable estimation.<br />
d) The piezometric surfaces and hydrograms <strong>of</strong> available ground<br />
water. Most hydrograms have been obtained <strong>with</strong> eight water<br />
level recorders, plus daily measurements on another six<br />
piezometers, plus monthly readings on a few more points. The<br />
piezometric surfaces correspond to intense and periodical<br />
measurement campaigns <strong>of</strong> one or two days duration, but these<br />
may have errors due to variations in the measurement hour,<br />
or introduction <strong>of</strong> some dynamic data or tridimensional flow<br />
areas; nevertheless they are sufficiently valid.<br />
e) River discharges, obtained <strong>with</strong> certain guarantee at the<br />
upper valley i<strong>nl</strong>et, in Martorell.<br />
f) Geometric dimensions <strong>of</strong> the modelled units.<br />
The data to be adjusted are:<br />
1. on the model in itself, based on already mentioned<br />
previous values, and <strong>with</strong> a pre-established variation<br />
margin, taken from existing knowledge.<br />
- Transmissivities <strong>of</strong> the surface and deep aquifer, <strong>with</strong><br />
reduced variations.<br />
- Vertical permeability <strong>of</strong> the aquitard (intermediary<br />
silts) for which the previous data could be notably<br />
erroneous.<br />
- Porosity <strong>of</strong> the water table aquifer, o<strong>nl</strong>y admitting<br />
slight variations in accordance <strong>with</strong> the lithology.<br />
- Coefficient <strong>of</strong> elastic storage <strong>of</strong> the captive aquifers<br />
<strong>with</strong>in a logical margin according to the existing<br />
structure and figures on the interpretation <strong>of</strong> pumping<br />
tests and the response to sea tide in some water level<br />
recorders <strong>of</strong> ground waters.<br />
2. on the actions impossed on the aquifer in the adjustment<br />
period, not directly known.<br />
- River recharge, estimated previously from balances,<br />
simplified analysis <strong>of</strong> the piezometric surfaces <strong>of</strong> the<br />
valley and a statistical correlation betwen discharges<br />
<strong>of</strong> the river-supply extractions and levels in the<br />
valley (13).<br />
- Discharge to the river in the final stretch, estimated<br />
by partial balances and sumplified analysis <strong>of</strong> the<br />
piezometric surfaces. This is a relatively small value.
588<br />
- Discharge to the sea and sea water encroachment values,<br />
according to the aquifer and the coastline area con-<br />
sidered. Measured very roughly due to estimation dif-<br />
ficulties, excepting the central coastal stretch <strong>of</strong><br />
the water table aquifer.<br />
The distribution <strong>of</strong> the recharge between the upper and deep<br />
aquifer <strong>of</strong> the delta is a result <strong>of</strong> the adjustment, and also is<br />
the water discharge circulating through the aquitard.<br />
The chief difficulties regarding the adjustment are derived<br />
from insufficient data on levels and a need to account on the<br />
seasonal variations, owing to the great importance <strong>of</strong> extractions<br />
in relation <strong>with</strong> the quickly mobilizable ground storage volume<br />
<strong>of</strong> water. The first piezometric surface useable is at the begin-<br />
ning <strong>of</strong> 1966, and although another six complete ones and one<br />
partial one were available, their distribution was neither regular<br />
in time, nor covered each <strong>of</strong> the quarterly periods into which<br />
the year was to be divided up. It was therefore decided to use<br />
the available piezometric surfaces, <strong>with</strong> minor corrections to<br />
adopt them to the final moment <strong>of</strong> each quarterly interval,<br />
forming new interpolated piezometric surfaces, based on the data<br />
<strong>of</strong> the continuous piezometric measurements in some points, already<br />
discussed, trying to maintain the flow shape character.<br />
To complete the quarter figures, the water balance estimations<br />
were made in the soil, and the extractions were calculated from<br />
the inventory according to the annual rate <strong>of</strong> use and moment the<br />
wells went into operation in some cases, or based on the demand<br />
curves given by some users.<br />
In figure 5, a sample <strong>of</strong> the result <strong>of</strong> the final adjustment<br />
process can be seen, taking the 4 years <strong>of</strong> figures, distributed<br />
into 16 quarterly terms. This final adjustment need 13 stages<br />
<strong>with</strong> the definitive network. Some prior trials were made <strong>with</strong> a<br />
simplified network, to know the magnitude and convergence rates<br />
<strong>of</strong> the estimation process. This adjustment stage incorporated<br />
the modifications suggested by the previous one, mai<strong>nl</strong>y modifying<br />
the hydraulic characteristics <strong>of</strong> the units and the recharge <strong>of</strong> the<br />
river. Before making a modification, the results obtained were<br />
carefully studied, taking into account previous results <strong>with</strong> early<br />
stages, and in order to be in accordance <strong>with</strong> the physical charac-<br />
teristics <strong>of</strong> the system.<br />
An important result <strong>of</strong> the adjustment process is not o<strong>nl</strong>y the<br />
correction <strong>of</strong> the imprecise data, but obtaining other necessary<br />
data for the model explotation process, previously unknown. Such<br />
is the relation Qr (river discharge) versus IR, thus allowing<br />
the (river infiltration) computation <strong>of</strong> IR (not measurable) <strong>with</strong><br />
available data on QR. The adjustment obtained shows there is this<br />
relation <strong>with</strong> a sufficient statistical degree <strong>of</strong> significance.
589<br />
Figure 6 shows the inicial map <strong>of</strong> transmissivities <strong>of</strong> the<br />
deep aquifer and the valley gravels and the one obtained after<br />
the adjustment. The differences are not important and in many<br />
cases, the variations are not merely a correction <strong>of</strong> an erroneous<br />
value, but the adaptation <strong>of</strong> a precise value (test in bore hole<br />
or well) or <strong>of</strong> a regional value (pumping test or analysis <strong>of</strong><br />
piezometric oscillations) to the dimensions and forms <strong>of</strong> each<br />
polygon.<br />
7.- UTILIZATION OF THE MODEL<br />
The model has been built for use under different conditions<br />
as those prevailing during theadjustmen process. This creates<br />
various problems. For example, the validity <strong>of</strong> the model for<br />
other distributions <strong>of</strong> the pumping or recharge-disoharge, or<br />
those corresponding to piezometric surfaces notably different.<br />
Also, one must consider the validity <strong>of</strong> the Qr - 1, (river<br />
discharge - river recharge) relation, under different circumstances<br />
<strong>of</strong> the river system or after conditioning works in the bed. The<br />
adjustment period is rather short, but sufficient to insure<br />
credible results under conditions similar to the adjustment<br />
ones and in time periods not much greater. If one attempt to<br />
simulate 20 years or under pumping conditions <strong>with</strong> other centres<br />
<strong>of</strong> extraction, noticeably different as those existing now, the<br />
results would possibly o<strong>nl</strong>y be semi-quantitative.<br />
One <strong>of</strong> the recent processes <strong>of</strong> using the model arose to study<br />
the possibility <strong>of</strong> temporarily increasing the groundwater<br />
extractions for supply, in the event <strong>of</strong> a succession <strong>of</strong> dominatly<br />
dry year combined <strong>with</strong> a delay in the first service <strong>of</strong> the new<br />
surface water regulation works <strong>of</strong> the Llobregatriver (ll), taking<br />
into account the normal pumping increase forecastsfor other pur-<br />
poses. The injuries and needs <strong>of</strong> redistribution and conditioning<br />
<strong>of</strong> the pumpings under various foreseen hypothesis have been<br />
assessed, and the sea water encroachment and the later return to<br />
a "normal" situation after these regulation works have been<br />
finished. Some <strong>of</strong> the possible extraction situations have not<br />
been made as they produce excessive drops which prevent the<br />
pumping capacity <strong>of</strong> the wells to be maintained.<br />
The use <strong>of</strong> the model permits the aquifer system <strong>of</strong> the Bajo<br />
Llobregat to be handled as a regulating reservoir, analysing<br />
the guarantees <strong>of</strong> the different ground water demands in different<br />
natural or man-made hydrological situations, and a knowledge <strong>of</strong><br />
the rate and location <strong>of</strong> the progressive salinization process or<br />
the effectiveness <strong>of</strong> the measures adopted to reduce it. These<br />
eventualities were analysed by seven different hypothesis<br />
following the adjustment process (1) (15), including the analysis<br />
<strong>of</strong> the possible artificial recharge. The model, in its explotation<br />
phase, works <strong>with</strong> six monthly intervals instead <strong>of</strong> the quarterly<br />
intervals <strong>of</strong> the adjustment.
590<br />
8.- CONCLUSION<br />
The careful1 modelling <strong>of</strong> an aquifer permits a very useful<br />
work tool to be obtained, even though the initiai data is<br />
incomplete or non-existent in certain aspects, provided another<br />
series <strong>of</strong> sufficiently precise data, or <strong>with</strong> known error is<br />
available, and which is such that it permits an adjustment<br />
process <strong>with</strong> a sufficient number <strong>of</strong> steps.<br />
9. - REFERENCES<br />
1.<br />
2.<br />
3.<br />
4.<br />
5.<br />
6.<br />
7.<br />
Cuena, J. and Custodio, E. (1971) - Construction and adjustment<br />
<strong>of</strong> a two layer mathematical model <strong>of</strong> the Llobregat Delta.-<br />
International Symposium on Mathematical Models in <strong>Hydrology</strong>.-<br />
International Association <strong>of</strong> Scientific <strong>Hydrology</strong>.- Varsovia.<br />
Custodio, E. (1967) - Etudes geohydrochimiques dans le delta<br />
du Llobregat, Barcelone (Espagne) - Geochimie, Precipitations,<br />
Humidité du Sol, Hydrometrie. Assemblée Générale de Berne,<br />
1967. Association International d’Hydrologie Scientifique.-<br />
Gentbrugge - pp. 134/155.<br />
Custodio, E. (1969) - Ground water entries in the Llobregat<br />
river delta.- Hydrological Reasearch Documents No. 6, Barce-<br />
lona <strong>Water</strong> REsearch, Applications and Studies Centre. Speech<br />
in Pamplona 1967 - pp 205/237.<br />
Custodio, E., Cuena, J. and BayÓ, A. (1971) - Problem,<br />
execution and use <strong>of</strong> a two layer mathematical model for the<br />
Llobregat delta aquifers (Barcelona).- First Spanish - Por-<br />
tuguese - American Congress on Economic Geology.- Madrid-<br />
Lisbon. sep 1971. Section 3. pp 171/198.<br />
Custodio, E., Bayo, A. and Pelaez, M.D. (1971) - Geochemistry<br />
and water entries for study <strong>of</strong> the movement <strong>of</strong> ground water<br />
in the Llobregat river delta (Barcelona) - First Spanish-<br />
Portuguese-American Congress on Economic Geology.- Madrid-<br />
Lisbon. sep. 1971. Section 6 pp 51/80.<br />
Custodio, E. and López-Garcia, L. (1972) - Construction and<br />
utilization process <strong>of</strong> a model. Chapter 5 Basic Theory on<br />
Analogical and Digital Models <strong>of</strong> Aquifers. Informations and<br />
Sutides, Bulletin, 37, Geologicql Service <strong>of</strong> Public Works.<br />
Madrid.<br />
Custodio, E. (1973) - Basic data for building an aquifer<br />
simultation model. Chapter 16.1. on Subterranean <strong>Hydrology</strong><br />
Omega Editorial. Barcelona (at press).
591<br />
8. Custodio, E. and others (1973) - Compiling <strong>of</strong> works made<br />
during the period 1966/1972 in the Bajo Llobregat. <strong>Water</strong><br />
Board <strong>of</strong> the East Pyrenees and Public Works Geological<br />
Service. Barcelona (in preparation).<br />
9. Llamas, M.R. and Molist, J. (1967) - <strong>Hydrology</strong> <strong>of</strong> the Besos<br />
and Llobregat River deltas.- Hydrological Investigation<br />
Documents NQ 2 - <strong>Water</strong> Research, Applications and Studies<br />
Centre. Barcelona. Speech in Barcelona (1966).<br />
10. Llamas, M.R. and VilarÓ, F. (1967) - Die Rolle der Grund-<br />
wasserspeicher bei der Wasservorsorgung von Barcelona.-<br />
Das Gas-und-Wasserfach, Wasser Abwasser, Vol. 34. No. 15,<br />
August 1967. pp. 945/953.<br />
11. Martin-Arnaiz, M. (1972) - Report on the explotation<br />
possibilities <strong>of</strong> the Llobregat river delta aquifers. General<br />
Board <strong>of</strong> Hydraulic Works. East Pyrenees <strong>Water</strong> Board. Barce-<br />
lona (prior report).<br />
12. Mc Neal, R.M. (1958) - An asymetrical finite difference<br />
network - Quarterly <strong>of</strong> Applied Mathematics. Vol. XI. No. 3<br />
1958.<br />
13. Montalbán, F. (1969) - Factorial analysis <strong>of</strong> the oscillations<br />
<strong>of</strong> the deep aquifer <strong>of</strong> the Llobregat river. Hydrological<br />
Investigation Documents No. 6. <strong>Water</strong> Research, Applications,<br />
and Studies Centre. Barcelona, Pamplona speech (1967).<br />
14. Ministry <strong>of</strong> Public Works (1965).- Study <strong>of</strong> the Total Hydraulic<br />
resourcs <strong>of</strong> the East Pyrenees - Second Report East Pyrenees<br />
<strong>Water</strong> Board and Public Works Geological Service. Barcelona.<br />
15. Ministry <strong>of</strong> Public Works - Report on the construction and<br />
application <strong>of</strong> a mathematical simulation model <strong>of</strong> the Llo-<br />
bregat delta aquifers.- Study <strong>of</strong> the Total Hydraulic <strong>Resources</strong><br />
<strong>of</strong> the East Pyrenees. Central Area. Report CE-111.- East<br />
Pyrenees <strong>Water</strong> Board and Public Works Geological Service.<br />
Barcelona.<br />
16. Santa Maria, L. and Marin A. (1909) - Hydrological studies<br />
on the Llobregat river basin.- Bulletin <strong>of</strong> the Commission<br />
<strong>of</strong> the Geological Map <strong>of</strong> Spain LX 2nd Series.<br />
17. Tyson, H.N. and Weber, E.M. (1964).- Ground water management<br />
for the nations future computer simulation <strong>of</strong> ground-water<br />
basins - proceedings <strong>of</strong> the ASCE, Journal <strong>of</strong> the Hydraulics<br />
Division. New York. Jyly 1964.<br />
18. VilarÓ, F. (1967) - Balance <strong>of</strong> the present use <strong>of</strong> the Bajo<br />
Llobregat. Hydrological Investigation Papers No. 2. <strong>Water</strong><br />
Investigations, Applications and Studies Centre. Barcelona<br />
Speech in Barcelona, (1966) - pp 155/169.
592<br />
19. VilarÓ, F. and Martin Arnbiz, M. (1968) - Hydric Balance<br />
<strong>of</strong> the Bajo Llobregat - Hydric Balance Seminar - F.A.O. -<br />
Geology and Mining Institute <strong>of</strong> Spain. Madrid.<br />
20. VilarÓ, F. Custodio, E., and Bruington, A.E. (1970) - Sea<br />
<strong>Water</strong> intrusion and water pollution in the Pirineo Oriental<br />
(Spain) - ASCE National <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Engineering Meeting,<br />
Memphis, Tennence. - Meeting Preprint 1122.
Fi g. 1 .- Plano general de situaci& y de extracciones.<br />
General location and pumping map.
O<br />
O 00 O O<br />
Yi<br />
sariaw - soiiaui S~JI~UI- soiiaw<br />
s '"" r<br />
O'' . I ' U<br />
594
-2-<br />
..2-.-<br />
595<br />
-<br />
Escal o-Scale<br />
O 1 2 3 L SKm.<br />
L ogunas pantanosas natural es<br />
Limite de los zonas permeables<br />
Limite del ocuifero<br />
pr<strong>of</strong>undo<br />
Isopieza del acuifero pr<strong>of</strong>undo I ml.<br />
Isapieza del acuifero suprficial [m 1.<br />
e Sondeo piezomctrico<br />
-.-.-<br />
Natural marshy lagoons<br />
Boundary <strong>of</strong> the permeable oreas<br />
Boundary <strong>of</strong> the deep aquifer<br />
A- Isopiestic line Of the drepoquifer(ml<br />
,-2--- Isopiestic line <strong>of</strong> the upperoquiferIm)<br />
Observation bore- hole<br />
Fi g. 3 - Superficies PiezornCtricas en Abril de 1.967 (s& Custodio) y<br />
situaci& de los sandeos.<br />
Piezometric surfaces in April 1.967 (after Custodio) and 10Cb<br />
tion <strong>of</strong> the boreholes.
I<br />
596
in<br />
c<br />
I in .e<br />
I - a<br />
I u<br />
I o 4<br />
I C<br />
/* :<br />
Y --<br />
597
598<br />
Tranrmirividad del aeuifero del<br />
valle y pr<strong>of</strong>undo del delta en m2/dia<br />
Transmissivity <strong>of</strong> valley and delta<br />
deep aquifers in sqml day<br />
-- id<br />
- - - - Dato inicial Preliminary figure<br />
1000 Valor ajustadocon Value mstchcd <strong>with</strong> the<br />
el modelo model<br />
Fig. 6.- Valores de la tranrrtirividaà del acuftero del valle y prohrado &l dal-<br />
ta del Llobregat.<br />
Values <strong>of</strong> the valley aad delta upper aquifers OP the Llobregat delta.
and in Etudes et rapports d ‘hydrataptie 16<br />
gn <strong>of</strong><br />
r- resou rces<br />
inadeq uate<br />
projects<br />
data<br />
Proceedings <strong>of</strong> the Madrid Syinposiurn<br />
June 1973<br />
Elaboration des projets<br />
d’utilisation des ressources en eau<br />
sans données suffisantes<br />
Volume 2<br />
Unesco - WMO - IAHS<br />
Unesco - OMM - AISH<br />
Actes du colloque de Madrid<br />
Juin 1973
Studies and reports in hydrology/Etudes et rapports d’hydrologie 16
TITLES IN THIS SERIES / DANS CETTE COLLECTION<br />
1.<br />
2.<br />
3.<br />
4.<br />
4.<br />
5.<br />
6.<br />
7.<br />
8.<br />
9.<br />
10.<br />
11.<br />
12.<br />
13.<br />
14.<br />
1s.<br />
16.<br />
The use <strong>of</strong> analog and digital computers in hydrology: Proceedings <strong>of</strong> the Tucson Symposium.<br />
June 1966 / L'utilisation des calculatrices analogiques et des ordinateurs en hydrologie: Actes du<br />
colloque de Tucson, juin 1966. Vol. 1 & 2. Co-edition IAHS-Unesco / Coédition AISU-Unesco.<br />
<strong>Water</strong> in the unsaturated zone: Proceedings <strong>of</strong> the Wageningen Symposium, June I967 / L'eau dans<br />
la zone non saturée: Actes du symposium de Wageningen, juin 1967. Edited by / Edité par P. E.<br />
Rijtema & H. Wassink. Vol. 1 & 2. Co-edition IAHS-Unesco / Coédition AISH-Unesco.<br />
Floods and their computation: Proceedings <strong>of</strong> the Leningrad Symposium, August 1967 / Les crues<br />
et leur évaluation: Actes du colloque de Leningrad, août 1967. Vol. 1 & 2. Co-edition IARS-Unesco-<br />
WMO / Coédition AISH-Unesco-OMM.<br />
Representative and experimental basins: An international guide for research and practice. Edited<br />
by C. Toebes and Y. Ouryvaev. Published by Unesco.<br />
Les bassins représentatifs et expérimentaux: Guide international des pratiques en matière de re-<br />
cherche. Publié sous la direction de C. Toebes et V. Ou-vaey. Publié par l'Unesco.<br />
'Discharge <strong>of</strong> selected rivers <strong>of</strong> the world / Débit de certain cours d'eau du monde. Published by<br />
Unesco / Publié par l'Unesco.<br />
Vol. I : General and régime characteristics <strong>of</strong> stations selected 1 Caractéristiques générales et<br />
caractéristiques du régime des stations choisies.<br />
Vol. II: Monthly and annual discharges recorded at various selected stations (from start <strong>of</strong> obser.<br />
vations up to 1964) / Débits mensuels et annuels enregistrés en diverses stations sélectionnées<br />
(de l'origine des observations à l'année 1964).<br />
'Vol. III: Mean monthly and extreme dlscharges (1%5-1969) / Débits mensuels moyens et débits<br />
extrêmes (19651969).<br />
List <strong>of</strong> International Hydrological Decade Stations <strong>of</strong> the world / Liste des stations de la Décennie<br />
hydrologique internationale existant dans le mmde. Published by Unesco 1 Publié par l'Unesco.<br />
Ground-water studies: An international guide for practice. Edited by R. Brown, I. Ineson. V. KO-<br />
noplyantsev and V. Kovalevski. (Will also appear in French, Russian gnd Spanish / Paraitrg<br />
également en espagnol, en français et en russe.)<br />
Land subsidence: Proceedings <strong>of</strong> the Tokyo Symposium, September 1969 / Affaisement du sol:<br />
Actes du colloque de Tokyo, septembre 1969. 'Vol. 1 & 2. Co-edition IAHS-Unesco / Coédition<br />
AISH-Unesco.<br />
<strong>Hydrology</strong> <strong>of</strong> deltas: Proceedings <strong>of</strong> the Bucharest Symposium, May 1969 / Hydrolaße des deltas:<br />
Actes du colloque de Bucarest, mai 1969. Vol. 1 & 2. Co-edition IAHS-Unesco / Coédirion AISH-<br />
Unesco.<br />
Status and trends <strong>of</strong> research in hydrology / Bilan et tendances de la recherche en hydrologic.<br />
Published by Unesco 1 Publié par l'Unesco.<br />
World water balance: Proceedings <strong>of</strong> the Reading Symposium, July 1970 / Bilan hydrique mondial:<br />
Actes du colloque de Reading, juillet 1970. Vol. 1-3. Co-edition ZAHS-Unesco-WhfO 1 Coédirion<br />
AISH-Unesco-OMM.<br />
Results <strong>of</strong> research on representative and experimental basins: Proceedings <strong>of</strong> the Wel1inp;ton<br />
Symposium, December 1970 / Résultats de recherches sur les bassins représentatifs et ex érimen-<br />
taux: Actes du cowoque de Wellington, décembre 1970. 'Vol. 1 & 2. Coedition IAHS-Jnesco /<br />
Coédition AISH-Unesco.<br />
Hydrometry: Proceedings <strong>of</strong> the Koblenz Symposium, September 1970 / Hydrométrie: Actes du<br />
colloque de Coblence, septembre 1970. Co-edition ZAHS-Unesco-WMO / Coédition AISH-Unesco-<br />
OMM.<br />
Hydrologic information systems. Co-edition Unesco-WMO.<br />
Mathematical models in hydrology: Proceedings <strong>of</strong> the Warsaw Symposium, July 1971 / Les mc-<br />
deles mathématiques en hydrologie Actes du colloque de Varsovie, juillet 1971. Vol. 1-3. Co-<br />
edition IAHS-Unesco-WMO / Coédit on AISH-Unesco-OMM.<br />
<strong>Design</strong> <strong>of</strong> water resources projects <strong>with</strong> inadequate data: Proceedings <strong>of</strong> the Madrid sym ,<br />
June 1973 / Elaboration des projets d'utilisation des ressources en eau sans données sufp:z:<br />
Actes du colloque de Madrid, juin 1973. Vol. 1-3. Co-edition Unesco-WMO-IAHS / Coéditiori Unesco-<br />
OMM-AISH.
<strong>Design</strong> <strong>of</strong><br />
water resources projects<br />
<strong>with</strong> inadequate data<br />
Proceedings <strong>of</strong> the Madrid Symposium<br />
June 1973<br />
Elaboration des projets<br />
d’utilisation des ressources en eau<br />
sans données suffisantes<br />
A contribution to the Lnternationat Hydrological Decade<br />
Une contribution a la Ecennie hydrologique internationale<br />
Con reshmenes en csuañol<br />
Volume 2<br />
Actes du colloque de Madrid<br />
Juin 1973<br />
Unesco - WMO - IAHS 1974<br />
Uiiesco - OMM - AISH
Published jointly by<br />
the United Nations Educational, Scientific<br />
and Cultural Organization,<br />
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World Meteorological Organization,<br />
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the International Association <strong>of</strong> Hydrological Sciences (President: J.-A. Rodier),<br />
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l’Association internationale des sciences hydrologiques (président: 3.-A. Rodier),<br />
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Impreso por el Centro de Estudios Hidrográficos, Madrid<br />
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ISBN 92-3-001137-1<br />
0 Unescc-WMO-IAHS-1974<br />
Printed in Spain
PREFACE<br />
The International Hydrological Decade (IHD) 1965-74 was launched by<br />
the General Conference <strong>of</strong> Unesco at its thirteenth session to promote<br />
international co-operation in research and studies and the training <strong>of</strong> spe-<br />
cialists and technicians in scientific hydrology. Its purpose is to enable<br />
all countries to make a fuller assessment <strong>of</strong> their water resources and a<br />
more rational use <strong>of</strong> them as man’s demands for water constantly increase<br />
in face <strong>of</strong> developments in population, industry and agriculture. In 1974<br />
National Committees for the Decade had been formed in 108 <strong>of</strong> Unesco’s<br />
131 Member States to carry out national activities <strong>with</strong>in the programme<br />
<strong>of</strong> the Decade. The implementation <strong>of</strong> the programme is supervised by a<br />
Co-ordinating Council, composed <strong>of</strong> 30 Member States selected by thc Ge-<br />
neral Conference <strong>of</strong> Unesco, which studies proposals for developments<br />
<strong>of</strong> the programme, recommends projects <strong>of</strong> interest to all or a large<br />
number <strong>of</strong> countries, assists in the development <strong>of</strong> national and regional<br />
projects and co-ordinates international co-operation.<br />
Promotion <strong>of</strong> collaboration in developing hydrological research techni-<br />
ques, diffusing hydrological data and planning hydrological installations<br />
is a major feature <strong>of</strong> the programme <strong>of</strong> the IHD which encompasses all<br />
aspects <strong>of</strong> hydrological studies and research. Hydrological investigations<br />
are encouraged at the national, regional and international level to streng-<br />
then and to improve the u6e <strong>of</strong> natural resources from a local and a global<br />
perspective. The programme provides a means for countries well advanced<br />
in hydrological research to exchange scientific views and for developing<br />
countries to benefit from this exchange <strong>of</strong> information in elaborating re-<br />
search projects and in implementing recent developments in the planning<br />
<strong>of</strong> hydrological installations.<br />
As part <strong>of</strong> Unesco’s contribution to the achievement <strong>of</strong> the objectives<br />
<strong>of</strong> the IHD the General Conference authorized the Director-General to<br />
collect, exchange and disseminate information concerning research on<br />
scientific hydrology and to facilitate contacts between research workers<br />
in this field. To this end Unesco initiated two series <strong>of</strong> publications: Studies<br />
and Reports in <strong>Hydrology</strong> and Technical Papers in <strong>Hydrology</strong>.<br />
The Studies and Reports in <strong>Hydrology</strong> series, in which the present<br />
volume is published, is aimed at recording data collected and the main<br />
results <strong>of</strong> hydrological studies undertaken <strong>with</strong>in the framework <strong>of</strong> the<br />
Decade, as well as providing information on research techniques. Also<br />
included in the series are proceedings <strong>of</strong> symposia. Thus, the series com-<br />
prises the compilation <strong>of</strong> data, discussions <strong>of</strong> hydrological research techni-<br />
ques and findings, and guidance material for future scientific investigations.<br />
It is hopped that the volumes wil furnish material <strong>of</strong> both practical and<br />
theoretical interest to hydrologists and governments participating in the<br />
IHD and respond to the needs <strong>of</strong> technicians and scientists concerned<br />
<strong>with</strong> problems <strong>of</strong> water in all countries.<br />
A number <strong>of</strong> these volumes have been published jointly <strong>with</strong> the In-<br />
ternational Association <strong>of</strong> Hydrological Sciences and the World Meteoro-<br />
logical Organization which have co-operated <strong>with</strong> Unesco in the imple-<br />
mentation <strong>of</strong> several important projects <strong>of</strong> the IHD.
PRÉFACE<br />
La Conférence générale de l’Unesco, à sa treizième session, a décidé<br />
de lancer, pour la période s’étendant de 1965 à 1974, la Décennie hydrologique<br />
internationale (DHI), entreprise mondiale visant a faire progresser la con-<br />
naissance en matière d’hydrologie scientifique par un développement de<br />
la coopération internationale et par la formation de spécialistes et de<br />
techniciens. Au moment où l’expansion démographique et le développement<br />
industriel et agricole provoquent un accroissement constant des besoins<br />
en eau, la DHI permet à tous les pays de mieux évaluer leurs ressources<br />
hydrauliques et de les exploiter plus rationnellement.<br />
I1 existe actuellement dans i08 des 131 Etats membres de l’Unesco un<br />
comité national qui, pour tout ce qui a tratit au programme de la Décen-<br />
nie, impulse les activités nationales et assure la participation de son pays<br />
aux entreprises régionales et internationales. L’exécution du programme<br />
de la DHI se fait sous la direction d’un Conseil de coordination composé<br />
de 30 Etats membres désignés par la Conférence générale de l’Unesco; ce<br />
conseil étudie les propositions concernant le programme, recommande<br />
l’adoption de projets intéressant l’ensemble des pays ou un grand nombre<br />
d’entre eux, aide à la mise sur pied de projets nationaux et régionaux, et<br />
coordonne la coopération à l’échelon international.<br />
Le programme de la DHI qui porte sur tous les aspects des études et<br />
des recherches hydrologiques, vise essentiellement à développer la col-<br />
laboration dans la mise au point des techniques de recherches, dans la<br />
diffusion des données hydrologiques, dans l’organisation des installations<br />
hydrologiques. I1 encourage les enquêtes nationales, régionales et interna-<br />
tionales tendant à accroître et à améliorer l’utilisation des resources na-<br />
turelles, dans une perspective locale et générale. I1 permet aux pays avancés<br />
en matière de recherches hydrologiques d’échanger des informations; aux<br />
pays en voie de développement, il <strong>of</strong>fre la possibilité de pr<strong>of</strong>iter de ces<br />
échanges pour élaborer leurs projets de recherches et pour planifier leurs<br />
installations hydrologiques en tirant parti des acquisitions les plus récentes<br />
de l’hydrologie scientifique.<br />
Pour permettre a l’Unesco de contribuer au succès de la DHI, la Con-<br />
férence générale a autorisé le Directeur générale à rassembler, à échanger<br />
et à diffuser des informations sur les recherches d’hydrologie scientifique<br />
et à faciliter les contacts entre les chercheurs dans ce domaine. A cette<br />
fin, l’Unesco fait paraître deux nouvelles collections de publications:
tique que théorique, et qu’elle répondra aux besoins des techniciens et<br />
des hommes de science de tous pays qui s’occupent des problèmes de l’eau.<br />
Certains de ces ouvrages sont publiés en coopération avec l’Association<br />
internationale des sciences hydrologiques ou I’Organisatioii mMorologique<br />
mondiale dans le cadre de projets réalisés conjointement par ces orga-<br />
nisations et l’Unesco.
<strong>Design</strong> d water resources projecis <strong>with</strong> inadequate data: P-dings d the Madrid aympoaium,<br />
June 1973 / Elaboration des projeta d'utilisation dei resswTas en eau aona d onka auffluntes:<br />
Actea du wlloque de Madrid. juin 1973<br />
Volume II Contents Table des matidres<br />
Foreword/Avant-propos<br />
TOPIC II.1A . METHODS FOR STUDIES LN DATA-SCARCE AREAS AND<br />
THE INFLUENCE ON DESIGN OF THE INADEQUACY OF<br />
DATA FOR PURPOSES OF PLANIFICATION OF WATER<br />
RESOURCES (EXCLUDING FLOOD AND LOW FLOWS).<br />
METHODOLOGY FOR ASSESSING HYDROLOGICAL CHA-<br />
RACTERISTICS IN DATASCARCE AREAS.<br />
POINT II.1A . METHODES D'ETUDES UTILISEES DANS LES REGIONS OU<br />
LES DONNEES SûNT INSUFFISANTES ET INFLUENCE SUR<br />
LE CALCUL DU PROJET DU MANQUE DE DONNEES POUR<br />
L'ELABORATION DES PROJETS DE L'UTILISATION DES<br />
RESSOURCES EN EAU (A L'EXCLUSION DES CRUES ET<br />
DES DEBITS DE BASSES EAUX).<br />
METHODOLOGIE POUR L'EVALUATION DES CARACTE-<br />
RISTIQUES HYDROLOGIQUES DANS LES REGIONS OU<br />
LES DONNEES SûNT RARES.<br />
BASSO, EDUARDO. (UNDPMIMO) GENERAL REPORT<br />
ABIODUM, ADIGUN ADE. (NIGERIA)<br />
<strong>Water</strong> resources projects in Nigeria and the hydrological data employed in<br />
their planning and development ................................<br />
BASSO, E., ARRIAGADA, A., NEIRA, H., PEREZ DELGADO, M. (COSTA<br />
RICA)<br />
An example <strong>of</strong> regional co-operation for improving the hydrological and<br />
meteorological information ...................................<br />
CUBAS GRANADO, FRANCISCO. (SPAIN)<br />
Existing methodology for estimating free water surface evaporation ....<br />
CUSTODIO, EMILIO. (SPAIN)<br />
Geohydrological studies in small areas <strong>with</strong>out systematic data ........<br />
DALINSKY, JOSEPH S. (ISRAEL)<br />
Methods <strong>of</strong> analysing deficient discharge data in arid and semi-arid zones<br />
for the design <strong>of</strong> surface water utilization .......................<br />
D'OLIVEIRA, EMILIO EUGENIO. MIMOSO, JOAO JOSE. (PORTUGAL)<br />
Mapai river hydrological study (Limpopo's river) ...................<br />
D'OLIVEIRA, EMILIO EUGENIO. MIMOSO, JOAO JOSE. (PORTUGAL)<br />
Application <strong>of</strong> Coutagne's and Turc's formulas to southern Mozambique<br />
rivers ...................................................<br />
HERAS, R. (SPAIN)<br />
Report hydrological programa <strong>of</strong> the Center for Hydrographic Studies for<br />
the investigation <strong>of</strong> hydraulic resources <strong>with</strong> insufficient data .........<br />
1<br />
21<br />
35<br />
59<br />
77<br />
95<br />
141<br />
121<br />
155
KARAUSHEV, A.V., BOGOLIUBOVA, I.V. (U.S.S.R.)<br />
Computation <strong>of</strong> reservoin wdLnrntition .........................<br />
KLIGUE, R.K., MECHDI EL SACHOB (U.S.S.R.)<br />
Cilnilrition<strong>of</strong>run<strong>of</strong>finIraq ..................................<br />
KUZMIN, P.P., VERSHININ, A.P. (U.S.S.R.)<br />
Determination <strong>of</strong> evaporation in caw <strong>of</strong> the abmnce or inadequacy <strong>of</strong><br />
data .....................................................<br />
PENTA, A., ROSSI, F. (ITALY)<br />
Objective criteria to daclare a aerier <strong>of</strong> data sufficient for technical pur-<br />
poses ....................................................<br />
QUINTELA GOIS, CARLOS. (PORTUGAL)<br />
Objective criteria used in hydrology <strong>with</strong> inadequate data ............<br />
SMITH, ROBERT L. (U.S.A.)<br />
Utilizing climatic data to appraise potentiai water yields .............<br />
STANESCU, SILVIU. (COLOMBIA)<br />
Determination <strong>of</strong> hydrological characteristics in points <strong>with</strong>out direct<br />
hydrometricdata ...........................................<br />
TEMEZ, J.R. (SPAIN)<br />
New models <strong>of</strong> frequency law <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f starting from precipitations ....<br />
TRENDEL, R., DER MEGREDITCHIAN, G., RULLIERE, MARIE CLAIRE.<br />
(FRANCE)<br />
Traitement opérationnel des données pluviométriques entachées d'erreurs<br />
ouinsuffisantes ............................................<br />
TOPIC II.1B . METHODS FOR STUDIES IN DATA SCARCE AREAS AND<br />
THE INFLUENCE ON DESIGN OF THE INADEQUACY OF<br />
DATA FOR PURPOSES OF PLANIFICATION OF WATER<br />
RESOURCES (EXCLUDING FLOOD AND LOW FLOWS).<br />
INFLUENCE OF INADEQUACY OF HYDROLOGICAL DATA<br />
ON PROJECT DESIGN AND FORMULATION.<br />
POINT II.1B - METHODES D'ETUDES UTILISEES DANS LES REGIONS OU<br />
LES DONNEES SONT INSUFFISANTES ET INFLUENCE SUR<br />
LE CALCUL DU PROJET DU MANQUE DE DONNEES POUR<br />
L'ELABORATION DES PROJETS DE L'UTILISATION DES<br />
RESSOURCES EN EAU (A L'EXCLUSION DES CRUES ET<br />
DES DEBITS DE BASSES EAUX). INFLUENCE DU MANQUE<br />
DE DONNEES HYDROLOGIQUES SUR LE CALCUL DU<br />
PROJET ET SA FORMULATION.<br />
BEARD, L.R. (U.S.A.) GENERAL REPORT<br />
BANERJI, S., LAL, V.B. (INDIA)<br />
<strong>Design</strong> <strong>of</strong> water resources projects <strong>with</strong> inadequate data in India. General<br />
& Particular Case Studies ................................... 323<br />
199<br />
207<br />
217<br />
221<br />
24 1<br />
253<br />
265<br />
287<br />
30 1<br />
315
JAMB, IVAN C. (U.S.A.)<br />
Data requirements for the optimization <strong>of</strong> reservoir dengn and operating<br />
dedetermination ..........................................<br />
REID, GEORGE W. (U.S.A.)<br />
The design <strong>of</strong> water quality management projecta <strong>with</strong> inadequate data<br />
SABHERWAL, R.K. (INDIA)<br />
<strong>Design</strong>ing projects for the development <strong>of</strong> ground water resources in the<br />
alluvial plains <strong>of</strong> northern India on the basis <strong>of</strong> inadequate data .......<br />
SEXTON, J.R., JAMIESON, D.G. (U.K.)<br />
Improved techniques for water resource systems design .........<br />
WEBER, J., KISIEL, CHESTER C., DUCKSTEIN, LUCIEN (U.S.A.)<br />
Maximum information obtainable from inadequate design data: from<br />
multivariate to Bayesian methods ..............................<br />
TOPIC 11.2 - CURRENT PRACTICES FOR ASSESSING DESIGN FLOODS<br />
AND DESIGN LOW FLOWS, INCLUDING THE USE OF<br />
SYNTHETIC UNIT HYDROGRAPH, WITH PARTICULAR<br />
EMPHASIS ON MAXIMALISATION AND MINIMALISATION.<br />
POINT 11.2 - PRATIQUES COURANTES POUR L'EVALUATION DES<br />
CRUES ET DES DEBITS D'ETIAGES PRIS EN COMPTE DANS<br />
LE PROJET, COMPRENANT L'EMPLOI D'HYDROGRAMMES<br />
UNITAIRES DE SYNTHESE, AVEC ETUDE PARTICULIERE<br />
DE LA MAXIMALISATION ET DE LA MINIMALISATION.<br />
ROCHE, MARCEL. (FRANCE) GENERAL REPORT<br />
BATLLE GIRONA, MODESTO. (SPAIN)<br />
Estimation <strong>of</strong> floods by means <strong>of</strong> their silt loads .................<br />
BERAN, M.A. (U.K.)<br />
Estimation <strong>of</strong> design floods and the problem <strong>of</strong> equating the probability<br />
<strong>of</strong>rainfailandrun<strong>of</strong>f ........................................<br />
DAVIS, DONALD R., DUCKSTEIN, L., KISIEL, CHESTER C., FOGEL, MAR-<br />
TIN M. (U.S.A.)<br />
A decision-theoretic approach to uncertainty in the return period <strong>of</strong><br />
maximum flow volumes using rainfall data .......................<br />
HALL, M.J. (U.K.)<br />
Synthetic unit hydrograph technique for the design <strong>of</strong> flood alleviation<br />
works in urban areas ......................................<br />
HELLIWELL, P.R., CHEN, T.Y. (U.K.)<br />
A dimensio<strong>nl</strong>ess unitgaph for Hong Kong ........................<br />
HERAS, R., LARA, A. (SPAIN)<br />
Study <strong>of</strong> maximum floods in small basins <strong>of</strong> torrential type ..........<br />
335<br />
349<br />
365<br />
383<br />
40 1<br />
419<br />
439<br />
459<br />
473<br />
485<br />
501<br />
517
HERBST, P.H., VAN BIWON, S., OLIVIER, J.P.J., HALL, J.M. (SOUTH<br />
AFRICA)<br />
Flood estimation by determination <strong>of</strong> regional parameten from limited<br />
data ....................................................<br />
JARASWATHANA, DAMRONG., PINKAYAN, SUBIN. (THAILAND)<br />
Practices <strong>of</strong> design flood frequency for small watersheds in Thailand ...<br />
KINOSITA, TAKEO., HASHIMOTO, TAKESHI. (JAPAN)<br />
<strong>Design</strong> discharge derived from design rainfall ..................<br />
LEESE, MORVEN N. (U.K.)<br />
The use <strong>of</strong> censored data in estimating t-year floods .........<br />
POGGI PEREIRA, PAULO. (BRAZIL)<br />
Assessment <strong>of</strong> design floods in Brazil ........................<br />
RENDON-HERRERO, OSWALD. (U.S.A.)<br />
A method for the prediction <strong>of</strong> washload in certain small watersheds ....<br />
RODIER, J.A. (FRANCE)<br />
Méthodes utilisées pour l'évaluation des débita de m e des petits com<br />
d'eau en régions tropicales ....................................<br />
SOKOLOV, A.A. (U.S.S.R.)<br />
Methods for the estimation <strong>of</strong> maximum dischargea <strong>of</strong> snow melt and<br />
rainfall water <strong>with</strong> inadequate observational data ..................<br />
VLADIMIROV,A.M.,CHEBOTAREV, A.I. (U.S.S.R.)<br />
Computation <strong>of</strong> probabiustic valuea <strong>of</strong> low flow for ungauged riven .<br />
WON, TAE SANG. (U.S.A.)<br />
A study on maximum flood discharge formulas ....................<br />
TOPIC III - RELATION BETWEEN PROJECT ECONOMICS AND HYDROLO-<br />
GICAL DATA<br />
POINT 111 - RELATION ENTRE LES DONNEES ECONOMIQUES DU PRO-<br />
JET ET LES DONNEES HYDROLOGIQUES<br />
BURAS, NATHAN. (ISRAEL)<br />
The cost-effectiveness <strong>of</strong> water resources systems considering inadequate<br />
hydrologiddata ...........................................<br />
FILOTTI, A., FRANK, G., PARVULESCU, C. (ROMANIA)<br />
Optimization <strong>of</strong> water resources development projects in case <strong>of</strong> inade-<br />
quate hydrologic data ....................................<br />
POBEDIMSKY, A. (ECE)<br />
Relation between project economics and hydrologicai data ...........<br />
54 1<br />
553<br />
551<br />
563<br />
517<br />
5 89<br />
603<br />
615<br />
625<br />
635<br />
649<br />
66 1<br />
683
INTRODUCTION<br />
The Symposium on the Development <strong>of</strong> <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> <strong>Projects</strong> <strong>with</strong><br />
<strong>Inadequate</strong> Data was held in Madrid from 4 to 8 June 1973 for the purpose<br />
<strong>of</strong> focusing on the methodology for hydrologic studies for water resources<br />
projects <strong>with</strong> inadequate data and on current practices for the assessment<br />
<strong>of</strong> design parameters.<br />
The Symposium was opened at the Palacio de Exposiciones on the<br />
morning <strong>of</strong> 4 June by Miniester <strong>of</strong> Public Workes <strong>of</strong> Spain Addresses were<br />
then given by Dr. Dumitrescu on behalf <strong>of</strong> the Director General <strong>of</strong> Unesco,<br />
Pr<strong>of</strong>essor Nevmec on behalf <strong>of</strong> the Secretary-General <strong>of</strong> WMO, Dr. Rodier<br />
as President <strong>of</strong> IAHS and by Dr. Briones, on behalf <strong>of</strong> the Spanish Na-<br />
tional Committee for the IHD.<br />
The Symposium was attended by 480 participants from 77 countries.<br />
The technical programme, detalled in the Table <strong>of</strong> Contents, included<br />
consideration <strong>of</strong> 3 major areas:<br />
1. Methodology for hydrological studies <strong>with</strong> inadequate data,<br />
2. Current practices in different countries,<br />
3. Relation between project economics and hydrological data.<br />
Each area was further sub-divided into topics for each <strong>of</strong> which the<br />
individually contributed papers were abstracted into a general report, orally<br />
presented by an invited expert, and followed by discussion.<br />
Since the individual papers were not presented at the Symposium orally<br />
by the authors, thery are reproduced here in the orden in which<br />
they were reported in each general report under each topic.
Contents<br />
Table des matières<br />
Volume II<br />
Foreword/Avant-propos ................................<br />
TOPIC II.1A - METHODS FOR STUDIES IN DATA-SCARCE AREAS AND<br />
THE INFLUENCE ON DESIGN OF THE INADEQUACY OF<br />
DATA FOR PURPOSES OF PLANIFICATION OF WATER<br />
RESOURCES (EXCLUDING FLOOD AND LOW FLOWS).<br />
METHODOLOGY FOR ASSESSING HYDROLOGICAL CHA-<br />
RACTERISTICS IN DATA-SCARCE AREAS.<br />
POINT II.1A - METHODES D’ETUDES UTILISEES DANS LES REGIONS OU<br />
LES DONNEES SONT INSUFFISANTES ET INFLUENCE SUR<br />
LE CALCUL DU PROJET DU MANQUE DE DONNEES POUR<br />
L’ELABORATION DES PROJETS DE L’UTILISATION DES<br />
RESSOURCES EN EAU (A L’EXCLUSION DES CRUES ET<br />
DES DEBITS DE BASSES EAUX).<br />
METHODOLOGIE POUR L’EVALUATION DES CARACTE-<br />
RISTIQUES HYDROLOGIQUES DANS LES REGIONS OU<br />
LES DONNEES SONT RARES.<br />
BASSO, EDUARDO. (UNDP/WMO) GENERAL REPORT<br />
ABIODUM, ADIGUN ADE. (NIGERIA)<br />
<strong>Water</strong> resources projects in Nigeria and the hydrological data employed in<br />
their planning and development ................................<br />
BASSO, E., ARRIAGADA, A., NEIRA, H., PEREZ DELGADO, M. (COSTA<br />
RICA)<br />
An example <strong>of</strong> regional co-operation for improving the hydrological and<br />
meteorological information ...................................<br />
CUBAS GRANADO, FRANCISCO. (SPAIN)<br />
Existing methodology for estimating free water surface evaporation ....<br />
CUSTODIO, EMILIO. (SPAIN)<br />
Geohydrological studies in small areas <strong>with</strong>out systematic data ........<br />
DALINSKY, JOSEPH S. (ISRAEL)<br />
Methods <strong>of</strong> analysing deficient discharge data in arid and semi-arid zones<br />
for the design <strong>of</strong> surface water utilization .......................
II<br />
D’OLIVEIRA, EMILIO EUGENIO. MIMOSO, JOAO JOSE. (PORTUGAL)<br />
Mapai river hydrological study (Limpopo’s river) ...................<br />
D’OLIVEIRA, EMILIO EUGENIO. MIMOSO, JOAO JOSE. (PORTUGAL)<br />
Application <strong>of</strong> Coutagne’s and Turc’s formulas to southern Mozambique<br />
rivers ....................................................<br />
HERAS, R. (SPAIN)<br />
Report hydrological programs <strong>of</strong> the Center for Hydrographic Studies for<br />
the investigation <strong>of</strong> hydraulic resources <strong>with</strong> insufficient data .........<br />
KARAUSHEV,A.V., BOGOLIUBOVA, I.V. (U.S.S.R.)<br />
Computation <strong>of</strong> reservoirs sedimentation .......................<br />
KLIGUE, R.K., MECHDI EL SACHOB (U.S.S.R.)<br />
Calculation <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f in Iraq ..................................<br />
KUZMIN, P.P., VERSHININ, A.P. (U.S.S.R.)<br />
Determination <strong>of</strong> evaporation in case <strong>of</strong> the absence or inadequacy <strong>of</strong><br />
data .....................................................<br />
PENTA, A., ROSSI, F. (ITALY)<br />
Objective criteria to declare a series <strong>of</strong> data sufficient for technical pur-<br />
poses ....................................................<br />
QUINTELA GOIS, CARLOS. (PORTUGAL)<br />
Objective criteria used in hydrology <strong>with</strong> inadequate data ............<br />
SMITH, ROBERT L. (U.S.A.)<br />
Utilizing climatic data to appraise potential water yields .............<br />
STANESCU, SILVIU. (COLOMBIA)<br />
Determination <strong>of</strong> hydrological characteristics in points <strong>with</strong>out direct<br />
hydrometric data ...........................................<br />
TEMEZ, J.R. (SPAIN)<br />
New models <strong>of</strong> frequency law <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f starting from precipitations ....<br />
TRENDEL, R., DER MEGREDITCHIAN, G., RULLIERE, MARIE CLAIRE.<br />
(FRANCE)<br />
Traitement opérationnel des données pluviornetriques entachées d’erreurs<br />
ou insuffisantes ............................................
TOPIC II.1B - METHODS FOR STUDIES IN DATA SCARCE AREAS AND<br />
THE INFLUENCE ON DESIGN OF THE INADEQUACY OF<br />
DATA FOR PURPOSES OF PLANIFICATION OF WATER<br />
RESOURCES (EXCLUDING FLOOD AND LOW FLOWS).<br />
INFLUENCE OF INADEQUACY OF HYDROLOGICAL DATA<br />
ON PROJECT DESIGN AND FORMULATION.<br />
POINT II.1B - METHODES D’ETUDES UTILISEES DANS LES REGIONS OU<br />
LES DONNEES SONT INSUFFISANTES ET INFLUENCE SUR<br />
LE CALCUL DU PROJET DU MANQUE DE DONNEES POUR<br />
L’ELABORATION DES PROJETS DE L’UTILISATION DES<br />
RESSOURCES EN EAU (A L’EXCLUSION DES CRUES ET<br />
DES DEBITS DE BASSES EAUX). INFLUENCE DU MANQUE<br />
DE DONNEES HYDROLOGIQUES SUR LE CALCUL DU<br />
PROJET ET SA FORMULATION.<br />
BEARD, L.R. (U.S.A.) GENERAL REPORT<br />
BANERJI, S., LAL, V.B. (INDIA)<br />
<strong>Design</strong> <strong>of</strong> water resources projects <strong>with</strong> inadequate data in India. General<br />
& Particular Case Studies ...................................<br />
JAMES, IVAN C. (U.S.A.)<br />
Data requirements for the optimization <strong>of</strong> reservoir design and operating<br />
rule determination ..........................................<br />
REID, GEORGE W. (U.S.A.)<br />
The design <strong>of</strong> water quality management projects <strong>with</strong> inadequate data .<br />
SABHERWAL, R.K. (INDIA)<br />
<strong>Design</strong>ing projects for the development <strong>of</strong> ground water resources in the<br />
alluvial plains <strong>of</strong> northern India on the basis <strong>of</strong> inadequate data .......<br />
SEXTON, J.R., JAMIESON, D.G. (U.K.)<br />
Improved techniques for water resource systems design ..............<br />
WEBER, J., KISIEL, CHESTER C., DUCKSTEIN, LUCIEN (U.S.A.)<br />
Maximum information obtainable from inadequate design data: from<br />
multivariate to Bayesian methods ..............................<br />
TOPIC 11.2 - CURRENT PRACTICES FOR ASSESSING DESIGN FLOODS<br />
AND DESIGN LOW FLOWS, INCLUDING THE USE OF<br />
SYNTHETIC UNIT HYDROGRAPH, WITH PARTICULAR<br />
EMPHASIS ON MAXIMALISATION AND MINIMALISATION.
IV<br />
POINT 11.2 - PRATIQUES COUFUNI"'I'S POUR L'EVALUATION DES<br />
CRUES ET DES DEBITS D'ETIAGES PRIS EN COMPTE DANS<br />
LE PROJET, COMPRENANT L'EMPLOI D'HYDROGRAMMES<br />
UNITAIRES DE SYNTHESE, AVEC ETUDE PARTICULIERE<br />
DE LA MAXIMALISATION ET DE LA MINIMALISATION.<br />
ROCHE, MARCEL. (FRANCE) GENERAL REPORT<br />
BATLLE GIRONA, MODESTO. (SPAIN)<br />
Estimation <strong>of</strong> floods by means <strong>of</strong> their silt loads ..............<br />
BERAN, M.A. (U.K.)<br />
Estimation <strong>of</strong> design floods and the problem <strong>of</strong> equating the probability<br />
<strong>of</strong> rainfall and run<strong>of</strong>f ........................................<br />
DAVIS, DONALD R., DUCKSTEIN, L., KISIEL, CHESTER C., FOGEL, MAR-<br />
TIN M. (U.S.A.)<br />
A decision-theoretic approach to uncertainty in the return period <strong>of</strong><br />
maximum flow volumes using rainfall data .......................<br />
HALL, M.J. (U.K.)<br />
Synthetic unit hydrograph technique for the design <strong>of</strong> flood alleviation<br />
works in urban areas ........................................<br />
HELLIWELL, P.R.,CHEN, T.Y. (U.K.)<br />
A dimensio<strong>nl</strong>ess unitgraph for Hong Kong ........................<br />
HERAS, R., LARA, A. (SPAIN)<br />
Study <strong>of</strong> maximum floods in small basins <strong>of</strong> torrential type ..........<br />
HERBST, P.H., VAN BILJON, S., OLIVIER, J.P.J., HALL, J.M. (SOUTH<br />
AFRICA)<br />
Flood estimation by determination <strong>of</strong> regional parameters from limited<br />
data .....................................................<br />
JARASWATHANA, DAMRONG., PINKAYAN, SUBIN. (THAILAND)<br />
Practices <strong>of</strong> design flood frequency for small watersheds in Thailand ...<br />
KINOSITA, TAKEO., HASHIMOTO, TAKESHI. (JAPAN)<br />
<strong>Design</strong> discharge derived from design rainfall ......................<br />
LEESE, MORVEN N. (U.K.)<br />
The use <strong>of</strong> censored data in estimating t-year floods ................
POGGI PEREIRA, PAULO. (BRAZIL)<br />
Assessment <strong>of</strong> design floods in Brazil .............................<br />
RENDON-HERRERO, OSWALD. (U.S.A.)<br />
A method for the prediction <strong>of</strong> washload in certain small watersheds ...<br />
RODIER, J.A. (FRANCE)<br />
Méthodes utilisées pour l’évaluation des débits de crue des petits cours<br />
d’eau eri régions tropicales ....................................<br />
SOKOLOV, A.A. (U.S.S.R.)<br />
Methods for the estimation <strong>of</strong> maximum discharges <strong>of</strong> snow melt and<br />
rainfall water <strong>with</strong> inadequate observational data ..................<br />
VLADIMIROV, A.M., CHEBOTAREV, A.I. (U.S.S.R.)<br />
Computation <strong>of</strong> probabilistic values <strong>of</strong> low flow for ungauged rivers ....<br />
WON, TAE SANG. (U.S.A.)<br />
A study on maximum flood discharge formulas ....................<br />
TOPIC III - RELATION BETWEEN PROJECT ECONOMICS AND HYDROLO-<br />
GICAL DATA<br />
POINT III - RELATION ENTRE LES DONNEES ECONOMIQUES DU PRO-<br />
JET ET LES DONNEES HYDROLOGIQUES<br />
BURAS, NATHAN. (ISRAEL)<br />
The cost-effectiveness <strong>of</strong> water resources systems considering inadequate<br />
hydrological data ...........................................<br />
FILOTTI, A., FRANK, G., PARVULESCU, C. (ROMANIA)<br />
Optimization <strong>of</strong> water resources development projects in case <strong>of</strong> inade-<br />
quate hydrologic data ....................................<br />
POBEDIMSKY, A. (ECE)<br />
Relation between project economics and hydrological data ...........
Foreword<br />
While the need for hydrological and meteorological data <strong>of</strong> many types<br />
for the design <strong>of</strong> water resources projects is obvious, it is <strong>of</strong>ten found,<br />
especially in many developing countries, that such data are either lacking<br />
or inadequate.<br />
Recognizing the existence <strong>of</strong> this problem, the Co-ordinating Counci.1 <strong>of</strong><br />
the IHD appointed a group <strong>of</strong> experts (third session, Paris, June 1967) to<br />
study the problem <strong>of</strong> design <strong>of</strong> water resources projects <strong>with</strong> inadequate<br />
data.<br />
Similarly, the Commission for <strong>Hydrology</strong> <strong>of</strong> WMO (third session, Geneva,<br />
September 1968) established a Working Group on Hydrological <strong>Design</strong><br />
Data for <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> <strong>Projects</strong> to prepare guidance material on this<br />
subject for the WMO Guide to Hydrological Practices and to maintain<br />
liaison <strong>with</strong> the IHD group <strong>of</strong> experts appointed by the Co-ordinating<br />
Council.<br />
As a means <strong>of</strong> taking stock <strong>of</strong> the work carried out by the hydrological<br />
community in coping <strong>with</strong> project design <strong>with</strong> scarce data, Unesco and<br />
WMO jointly convened a symposium on this subject. The Symposium was<br />
organized <strong>with</strong> the co-operation <strong>of</strong> the IAHS and the Spanish National<br />
Committee for the IHD and was held in Madrid from 4 to 8 June 1973 at<br />
the invitation <strong>of</strong> the Government <strong>of</strong> Spain.<br />
The Madrid Symposium concentrated on the methodology <strong>of</strong> hydro-<br />
logical studies for water resources projects <strong>with</strong> inadequate data and on<br />
current practices for the assessment <strong>of</strong> design parameters.<br />
The Minister <strong>of</strong> Public Works <strong>of</strong> Spain opened the Symposium at the<br />
Palacio de Exposiciones on the morning <strong>of</strong> 4 June. Addresses were given<br />
by Dr. Dumitrescu on behalf <strong>of</strong> the Director-General <strong>of</strong> Unesco, Pr<strong>of</strong>essor<br />
Nemec on benalf <strong>of</strong> the Secretary-General <strong>of</strong> WMO, Dr. Rodier as President<br />
<strong>of</strong> IAHS and by Dr. Briones, on behalf <strong>of</strong> the Spanish National Committee<br />
for the IHD.<br />
The Symposium was atteneded by 480 participants from 77 countries.<br />
The technical programme, detailed in the Table <strong>of</strong> Contents, included<br />
consideration <strong>of</strong> 3 major areas:<br />
1. Methodology for hydrological studies <strong>with</strong> inadequate data;<br />
2. Current practices in different countries;<br />
3. Relation between project economics and hydrological data.<br />
Each area was further sub-divided into topics for each <strong>of</strong> which the<br />
indivi,dually contributed papers were abstracted into a general report,<br />
orally presented by an invited expert, and followed by discussion.
This volume <strong>of</strong> proceedings was compiled by the Spanish National Com-<br />
mittee for the IHD; it includes all the general reports and individual<br />
papers presented at the Symposium, as well as the discussions. It is issued<br />
as a joint Unesco/WMO/IAHS pub,lication in the spirit in which the three<br />
Organizations have collaborated during the IHD.<br />
Since the individual authors did not present their papers orally at the<br />
Symposium, the papers are reproduced here in the order in which they<br />
are discussed in the general report for each topic.<br />
Unesco, WMO and IAHS wish to record their thanks to the Spanish<br />
National Committee for the IHD for the many contributions <strong>of</strong> its members<br />
towards the organization <strong>of</strong> the Symposium, and for the Committee’s as-<br />
sistance in the publication <strong>of</strong> these proceedings.
AVANT-PROPOS<br />
I1 est évident que, pour élaborer des projets d’utilisation des ressources<br />
en eau il est nécessaire de disposer de données hydrologiques et météoro-<br />
logiques de types très divers; or il apparaît que ces données sont souvent<br />
inexistantes ou insuffisantes, notamment dans beaucoup de pays en voie<br />
de développement.<br />
Conscient de ce problème, le Conseil de coordination de la DHI a créé,<br />
lors de sa troisième session (Paris, juin 1967) un groupe d’experts chargé<br />
d’étudier les moyens d’elaborer des projets d’utilisation des ressources<br />
en eau sans disposer de données suffisantes.<br />
De son côté, la Commission d’hydrologie de l’OMM a constitué à sa<br />
troisième session (Genève, septembre 1968) un groupe de travail sur les<br />
données hydrologiques nécessaires à l’élaboration des projets d’arnénagement<br />
des ressources hydrauliques; ce groupe de travail a été chargé de<br />
formuler des recommandations destinées à figurer dans le Guide OMM des<br />
pratiques hydrologiques, et d’assurer la liaison avec le groupe d’experts<br />
de la DHI créé par le Conseil de coordination.<br />
Afin de faire le point des travaux accomplis par la communité hydrologique<br />
en ce qui concerne l’élaboration de projets pour lesquels on ne<br />
dispose pas de données suffisantes, l’Unesco et l’OMM ont décidé de réunir<br />
conjointement un colloque consacré à cette question. Ce colloque, organisé<br />
avec la collaboration de I’AISH et du Comité national espagnol pour la<br />
DHI, s’est tenu à Madrid en juin 1973, à l’invitation du gouvernement espagnol.<br />
Le colloque de Madrid a traité en particulier de la méthodologie des<br />
études hydrologiques sans données suffisantes et des pratiques courantes<br />
utilisées pour l’évaluation des paramètres de calcul.<br />
Le colloque a été ouvert par le ministre espagnol des travaux publics,<br />
le matin du 4 juin, dans le cadre du Palais des expositions. Des allocutions<br />
furent prononcées par M. Dumitriscu, au nom du Directeur général de<br />
l’Unesco, par le pr<strong>of</strong>esseur Nemec, au nom du Secrétaire général de l’OMM,<br />
par M. Rodier, président de l’AISH, et par M. Briones, au nom du Comité<br />
national espagnol pour la DHI.<br />
480 participants, venant de 77 pays, participèrent au colloque.<br />
Le programme technique, dont le contenu détaillé figure dans la table<br />
des matières, portait sur trois domaines principaux:<br />
1. Méthodologie des études hydrologiques sans données suffisantes;<br />
2. Les pratiques courantes utilisées dans différents pays;<br />
3. Relation entre les données économiques du projet et les données<br />
hydrologiques.
Chacun de ces domaines était subdivisé en thèmes, et sur chaque thème<br />
un rapport général synthétisant les communications individuellles était pré-<br />
senté par un expert, puis suivi d’une discussion.<br />
Les Actes du colloque, établis par le Comité national espagnol pour<br />
la DHI, comprennent l’ensemble des communications individuelles et des<br />
rapports généraux, ainsi que le compte rendu des débats auxquels ils ont<br />
donné lieu. Ils constituent une publication conjointe de l’Unesco, de l’OMM<br />
et de I’AISH, reflétant l’esprit dans lequel les trois organisations ont col-<br />
laboré pendant la DHI.<br />
Comme les communications individuelles n’ont pas été présentées ora-<br />
lement par leurs auteurs, elles sont reproduites dans l’ordre où elles sont<br />
apparues dans le rapport les concernant.<br />
Unesco, l’OMM et I’AISH tiennent à remercier le Comité national es-<br />
pagnol pour la DHI du concours qu’il a apporté à l’organisation du colloque<br />
et à la publication de ses Actes.
METHODOLOGY FOR ASSESSING HYDROLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS<br />
IN DATA SCARCE AREAS<br />
General Report<br />
bY<br />
Eduardo Basso*<br />
INTRODUCTION<br />
Three <strong>of</strong> the eight papers reviewed in this Report describe in general the form<br />
<strong>of</strong> assessing hydrological characteristics in data-scarce areas (Nigeria, Ango-<br />
la and the Central American Isthmus). The other five papers deal <strong>with</strong> the ap-<br />
Plication <strong>of</strong> certain particular methods, covering estimation <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f, evapo-<br />
ration, sedimentation and other hydrological parameters. Therefore, the re-<br />
vision will be made in this order.<br />
The procedure to be followed in this summarizing report consists <strong>of</strong> present-<br />
ing summaries <strong>of</strong> the papers followed by a discussion <strong>of</strong> the main subjects and<br />
by some general comments on the whole subject.<br />
REVIEW OF THE PAPERS<br />
Okavango Basin in Angola. - The paper by Mr. Quintelag** presents the<br />
studies made in Angola and in particular those <strong>of</strong> the Okavango Basin, which<br />
is one <strong>of</strong> the big international rivers <strong>of</strong> the South <strong>of</strong> Angola. The basin is shown<br />
in Figure 1 <strong>of</strong> the paper. Its drainage area is about 150 O00 Km2 and most <strong>of</strong><br />
the rainfall occurs from October to April. Altitudes range from 1000 to 1800<br />
meters. For the rainfall studies, 28 stations could provide 20 years <strong>of</strong> records<br />
after completing some shortages by correlation. With these annual values, an<br />
isohyetical map was drawn taking into account altitudes and some climatical<br />
factors. From there, the mean annual rainfall was computed and analysed by<br />
applying the Foster-Hazen method. The result is shown in Figure 2 <strong>of</strong> the<br />
paper, from which a mean annual precipitation <strong>of</strong> 950 mm was debermined.<br />
19 flow measuring stations operate in the basin, but o<strong>nl</strong>y records for 7 years<br />
were available. As the mean rainfall <strong>of</strong> these seven years is near theaverage<br />
the author concludes that the mean annual flow can be estimated by averaging<br />
the flows <strong>of</strong> those seven years for every station.<br />
One station operatdby the<br />
South African Services had longer records (25 years) and for it the Foster-<br />
Hazen method was used (Figure 3 <strong>of</strong> the paper). Finally, Figure 4 shows a<br />
curve indicating the variation <strong>of</strong> the specific annual flow <strong>with</strong>in the drainage<br />
area.<br />
* Project Manager, Central American Hydrometeorological Project, (UNDP/<br />
WMO). Managua, Nicaragua.<br />
** See list <strong>of</strong> references at the end <strong>of</strong> this Report,
2<br />
Niveria's Case. Abiodun's paperg deals first <strong>with</strong> Nigeria's water policy and<br />
<strong>with</strong> the institutional arrangements in relation 90 water resources studies.<br />
It later presents some examples <strong>of</strong> utilization <strong>of</strong> hydrological data in existing<br />
projects.<br />
The Kainji multipurpose scheme is located on River Niger (Figure 1 <strong>of</strong> the<br />
paper). Although construction was started in 1964, no water levels were observed<br />
prior to 1959. The precipitation network was also insufficient until in<br />
1953 when new stations were installed allowing a seven year record (1953-59)<br />
from which the rainfall over the catchment area was calculated for this period.<br />
A relatively long record at Jebba, upstream <strong>of</strong> the dam, could not be used<br />
because <strong>of</strong> lack <strong>of</strong> adequate datum information. A correlation between monthly<br />
rainfall and runn<strong>of</strong>f at Jebba was obtained using the newly observated discharges<br />
at Jebba for seven years and w e -ed for ccmp&ing the discharge from the basin<br />
between Niamey (upstream <strong>of</strong> the dam site at Kianzi) and Jebba Cbserved and<br />
computed flows for two years are shown in Figure 2 <strong>of</strong> the paper.<br />
The &ect <strong>of</strong> lage up to one month were considered in the correlation (equation<br />
1 <strong>of</strong> the paper). Finally, the discharge at the damsite was obtained substracting<br />
the eetimated run<strong>of</strong>f on two areas, estimating run<strong>of</strong>f coefficients <strong>of</strong> O. 1 and<br />
O. 2 (equation 2 <strong>of</strong> the paper).<br />
The paper refers them to the problems produced by the lack<br />
cal data in Midwestern Nigeria.<br />
<strong>of</strong> hydrogeologi-<br />
in Western Nigeria many long and reliable evaporation and rainfall data are<br />
available, but river discharges are very scarce. According to the author, the<br />
standard practice is to base the water scheme design in a conservative form<br />
using a monthly evaporation <strong>of</strong> 127 mm and computing run<strong>of</strong>f <strong>with</strong> the formula<br />
in which Q, is the catchment annual run<strong>of</strong>f, A the basin drainage area, Rpsn<br />
the basin rainfall value corresponding to correspondjng the probability <strong>of</strong> -Urtaace.in<br />
5ûy~are Co;'Coefficient <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f for the basin, estimated at 4%. Abig<br />
dun indicates that variations <strong>of</strong> this formula are widely used in western Nigeria.<br />
and the uee <strong>of</strong> a form <strong>of</strong> it was not used for computing the flood for the<br />
spillway for Asejire Project because <strong>of</strong> the advice <strong>of</strong> a foreign consultant. Ins<br />
tead, a run<strong>of</strong>f <strong>of</strong> 490 l/sec was used. basedan similar occurrences in other<br />
West African dtreams.<br />
The paper refers also briefly to the Lake Chad basin studies which count <strong>with</strong><br />
cooperation from the United States Geological Survey, FAO and UNESCO. In<br />
this case FAO'e efforts have been directed to the harmonization and evaluation<br />
<strong>of</strong> the data. infra-red aerial photography has been used in connection <strong>with</strong><br />
thee e tas ka.<br />
The paper concludes <strong>with</strong> an appraisal <strong>of</strong> the studies used and <strong>with</strong> a brief des-<br />
cription <strong>of</strong> the future activities in the field <strong>of</strong> water resources investigations in<br />
Nigeria. Here, the use <strong>of</strong> new techniques such as rsmote sensing is recom-<br />
mended.<br />
The Central American Hydrometeorological Proiec<br />
The paper by Basso. Arriagada, Neira and Pérez 13. describes the activities<br />
<strong>of</strong> the Central American Hydrometeorological Project, a co-operative effort<br />
-
etween the countries <strong>of</strong> the Central American Istbmis and the United Nations<br />
Development Programme acting as executive agency the World Meteorological<br />
Organization. The main objectives <strong>of</strong> the Project are: (i) Installation <strong>of</strong> a basic<br />
network <strong>of</strong> meteorological and hydrological station; (ii) Collection, processing<br />
and publication <strong>of</strong> the data; (iii) training <strong>of</strong> personnel by means <strong>of</strong> courses,<br />
fellowships or through technical publication and manuals; and (iv) The institutional<br />
strengthening <strong>of</strong> the meteorological and hydrological services <strong>of</strong> the<br />
area.<br />
At the beginning <strong>of</strong> the Project (1966) the conditions in the area varied widely<br />
from country to country. In the average the few river discharge measuring<br />
stations had short and sometimes unreliable data, the meteorological network<br />
was poorly distributed and bore no connection <strong>with</strong> the hydrological network, a<br />
defect that has been also reported in other <strong>of</strong> the papers under review; ra-<br />
diation, evaporation and rainfall intensity information was completely insuf-<br />
ficient, and --except for one or two countries-- no sediment or water quality<br />
measurements were made at all. A few capable technicians were available,<br />
but extensive training was a pressing need.<br />
The paper describes in some detail the steps taken by the Project, as result<br />
<strong>of</strong> which the present situation is quite satisfactory for developing conditions.<br />
Of particular interest for the subject <strong>of</strong> this meeting is the description <strong>of</strong> some<br />
methods proposed by the project for assessing hydrological characteristics<br />
<strong>with</strong> insufficient data.<br />
The use <strong>of</strong> the sediment rating curve, Figure 7 <strong>of</strong> the paper. has been used for<br />
computing sediment transportation. The remarks on the variation <strong>of</strong> the coe&<br />
ficient n <strong>of</strong> the equation C SA Qn <strong>with</strong> annual precipitation (G:sediment dis-<br />
charge, Q: Discharge; A, n coefficients) are <strong>of</strong> interest in aMlyZing scarce se-<br />
diment information. Figure 8 <strong>of</strong> the paper shows the results <strong>of</strong> some measure-<br />
ments made by the Project, indicating the effect <strong>of</strong> rainfall and vegetation cover<br />
in the sediment yield. The effect <strong>of</strong> the destruction <strong>of</strong> the vegetable cover by a<br />
volcanic eruption should be noticed as a quite particular case.<br />
Flood and rainfall envelopes (Figure 9 and 10 <strong>of</strong> the paper) have been used as<br />
a first estimate <strong>of</strong> maximum discharges and precipitation studies. Studies <strong>of</strong><br />
regionalized flood frequency analysis are now under way.<br />
Other achievements <strong>of</strong> the Project include etudies for determining evapotrans -<br />
piration and water requirements for irrigation, studies on run<strong>of</strong>f forecasting<br />
groundwater studies using a regional analog computer, etc.<br />
The report refers also to the problem <strong>of</strong> network implementation in areas <strong>with</strong><br />
access problems, and the use <strong>of</strong> prefabricated elements Éhould be noted<br />
(Figures 3 and 4 <strong>of</strong> the Report). Figures 5 and 6 shows the change in areal<br />
coverage as result <strong>of</strong> the action <strong>of</strong> the project. The successful use <strong>of</strong> modern<br />
mechanical methods for processing meteorological and hydrological information<br />
should encourage other developing countries in the use <strong>of</strong> these methods.<br />
The report concludes <strong>with</strong> a remark on the importance <strong>of</strong> adequate institu-<br />
tional support for these activities, which< imitia1Ly requi res the creation <strong>of</strong><br />
concern <strong>of</strong> the Governments on the importance <strong>of</strong> meteorology and hydrology.<br />
3
4<br />
Est i mat i ng <strong>Water</strong> Yiel ds<br />
Smith's9 paper presents an interesting example <strong>of</strong> estimating water yields<br />
using o<strong>nl</strong>y precipitation and temperature measurements.<br />
The basic water balance equation applied to a catchment area may by expressed<br />
as:<br />
P R+E+ AS<br />
P precipitation; R total basin outflow, E evapotranspiration and AS<br />
change in storage. For a long period AS becomes negligible, and making<br />
some transformations in equation (1) it is possible to rewrite it as:<br />
Thus, in the long term, the run<strong>of</strong>f oefficient C is governed by climatic consider-<br />
ations. ln 1967 Guisti and López$ proposed that the mean stream discharge<br />
could be determined as a function <strong>of</strong> the mean annual precipitation and the basin<br />
climatic index, BCI, defined as:<br />
where P: average monthly precipitation in centimeters and T: average monthly<br />
temperature in degrees centigrade. A relation between C and BCI based in 250<br />
catchments in the United States and Puerto Rico is shown in Figure 1 <strong>of</strong> the paper.<br />
The use <strong>of</strong> regional relations between BCI and P as those shown in Figure 2 <strong>of</strong><br />
the paper allows to derive C o<strong>nl</strong>y from precipitation data. The basic C versus<br />
BCI relationship was tested <strong>with</strong> satisfactory results as those shown in Figure 3<br />
<strong>of</strong> the paper.<br />
The basic relationships can also be used to appraise the effect <strong>of</strong> changes <strong>of</strong> the<br />
precipitation, If subscript 1 represents natural conditions and 2 represented<br />
augmented conditions (in the case <strong>of</strong> an increase in rainfall) then the gain in run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
can be written as:<br />
Where, PM L P2/Pi<br />
Jn table 1 the author compares the results <strong>of</strong> using this method <strong>with</strong> the results<br />
<strong>of</strong> ueing hydrologic simulation as reported by several investigators <strong>with</strong> good<br />
agreement..<br />
Using a reasonable amount <strong>of</strong> judgment it is possible to determine flow characteristics<br />
other than the mean. Figure 4 shows a comparison <strong>of</strong> calculated and<br />
observed annual run<strong>of</strong>f distributions for the Marias de Cygnes River, Kansas,<br />
USA. However, the limitation <strong>of</strong> this method, as clearly indicated in the text<br />
<strong>of</strong> the paper, should be considered before using it.<br />
estimation <strong>of</strong> monthly yields allocating them in proportion to their contribution<br />
to the BCI (a two month running average should be used due to tag problems).<br />
(1)<br />
This also applies to the
The use <strong>of</strong> the basic relation can also be extended <strong>with</strong> the help <strong>of</strong> certain flow<br />
and miscellaneous field measurements.<br />
The paper closes showing the application <strong>of</strong> the method for appraising the po-<br />
tential yield characteristics <strong>of</strong> coastal aquifers in southern Puerto Rico and<br />
presenting one example <strong>of</strong> the adjustments required when the natural conditions<br />
have been changed by man's activities.<br />
Application <strong>of</strong> Coutagne's and Turc's Formulas<br />
The paper by D'Oliveira and Mip~so6J applies Coutagne's and Turc formulas<br />
for the southern Mozambique rivers.<br />
Coutagne's general rule states:<br />
D-H-KH2<br />
D: Run<strong>of</strong>f deficit = H - E; H: Mean rainfall height; K! Coutagne's constant<br />
Also C = KH where C: Run<strong>of</strong>f Coefficient ; &<br />
H<br />
The most probable value <strong>of</strong> K is obtained by equating to zero the first derivative<br />
<strong>of</strong> E(C - KH)2, which results in:<br />
Turc's general rule can be expressed as:<br />
P.<br />
H<br />
/.z-g-<br />
Where L: Turc's constant = A t 25T t O. 05T3,<br />
P: Evaporation plus percolation looses ( run<strong>of</strong>f deficit), H: Precipitation,<br />
A: Constant; T: Mean temperature (In degrees centigrade)<br />
Turc applied his rule for 254 basins, using A 300, finding that in 53% <strong>of</strong> the<br />
cases the difference between the real and computed D was lees than 40 mm; in<br />
43% <strong>of</strong> the cases this difference was less than O. 1 <strong>of</strong> measured D and in 65% the<br />
difference was less than O. 2 measured D.<br />
The application <strong>of</strong> both formulas to seven basins was divided nto two groups; the<br />
Limpopo River group (Rainfall 450-650 nun; temperatures 18' C-20' C) and the<br />
Incomati, Sabie, Umbeluzi and Usoto Group (Rainfall 800 mm; temperatures<br />
higher than 20').<br />
Detailed results are presented, which can be sumarized as follows:<br />
5
6<br />
Limpopo area<br />
Elephants River<br />
Beit Bridge<br />
Trigo de Morais<br />
All group<br />
C ontanne' s Turc relation<br />
K A = 300<br />
Per cent <strong>of</strong> D -Dcalc<br />
greater than O. 1 Dcalc<br />
o. O00055<br />
O. 000031<br />
O. 000047<br />
o. 000050<br />
Incomati, Sabie. Umbeluzi and Usoto area<br />
Incomati River O. 0001 50<br />
Sabie River<br />
O. 000131<br />
Umbeluzi River<br />
O. 000145<br />
Usuto River<br />
O. 000162<br />
All group<br />
O. 000140<br />
-the use <strong>of</strong> Turc's relation <strong>with</strong> A 300 produces poor results, the authors<br />
present a nomograph (Figure 2 <strong>of</strong> the paper) to compute the value <strong>of</strong> A. Using<br />
these new values <strong>of</strong> the constants the difference between calculated and measured<br />
D is reduced to acceptables levels.<br />
Estimati on <strong>of</strong> Lvapotranspiration<br />
The paper by Kuzmin and Vershininu deals <strong>with</strong> the determination <strong>of</strong> evapora-<br />
tion in case <strong>of</strong> the absence or inadequacy <strong>of</strong> data.<br />
Since methods for direct evaporation measurements are still being developed,<br />
computations are the main source <strong>of</strong> information. These can be divided into<br />
three groups: (i) methods based in the physical analysis <strong>of</strong> the process, (ii)<br />
methods combining the physical analysis <strong>with</strong> semi-empirical constants deter -<br />
mined from actual evaporation in representative regions and (iii) purely statistical<br />
methods.<br />
The first group includes methods using heat balance equation. water balance<br />
equation and turbulent diffusion. In the USSR equation (1) which has been<br />
deduced from the simplified equation <strong>of</strong> the heat balance <strong>of</strong> the land surface <strong>with</strong><br />
the account <strong>of</strong> Bowen ratio is widely applied.<br />
where: E: Evapotranspiration, R is the measured value <strong>of</strong> the radiation balance<br />
<strong>of</strong> the surface, B is the heat income into the soil, L is the latent heat <strong>of</strong> evapor-<br />
ation, Cp is the heat capacity under constant pressure, H is the atmospheric<br />
pressure, t and e are respectively the differences in temperature and water<br />
pressure measured at two levels above the ground.<br />
Equation (1) should rather belong to the second group than to the first one, since<br />
it does not represent all physical factors that affect the phenomena.<br />
Full water balance is not applied in the practice but in the case <strong>of</strong> deep water<br />
table. in this case, the fobwing equation is used in the USSR for estimating-<br />
evapotranspiration from non-irrigated fields;<br />
64%<br />
16%
E = X +(W1 . W2) (2)<br />
X: Precipitation; W1 and W2 are the moieture storage in soil at the beginning<br />
and at the end <strong>of</strong> the design period. Some conditions for using this relation<br />
are indicated by the author. Another partial solution <strong>of</strong> water balance equation<br />
is the estimation <strong>of</strong> mean annual sums <strong>of</strong> evapotranspiration as the dif -<br />
ference between precipitation and run<strong>of</strong>f. After indicating the possibilities <strong>of</strong><br />
methods based on turbulent diffusion problems in deriving a universal equation<br />
are also stated. Therefore, the convenience <strong>of</strong> equations using non-specialized<br />
observations is evident. One <strong>of</strong> these for regions - <strong>of</strong> natural moistening is due<br />
to Budyko:<br />
-Ro XL<br />
;h Ro (cm year-1 ) (3)<br />
4<br />
equation (3) includes o<strong>nl</strong>y one observational parameter, X: long term average<br />
precipitation (cm/year) R o is the average annual radiation balan e <strong>of</strong> the undey<br />
lying surface which can be obtained from the m ap <strong>of</strong> Referenced. L is the<br />
latent heat <strong>of</strong> evaporation, A method for distributing the mean annual sums<br />
estimated from equation (3) is explained by the ,authors.<br />
Monthly evapotranspiration from irrigated fields are estimated <strong>with</strong> the help<br />
<strong>of</strong> simplified heat balance equations. The standard error is about 15% when<br />
special observations are available or about 30% <strong>with</strong> standard observations.<br />
The use <strong>of</strong> em+ical relations similar to that <strong>of</strong> Blaney and Criddle can be<br />
used o<strong>nl</strong>y if the empirical coefficients are tested and corrected for each point<br />
<strong>of</strong> their application.<br />
The most simple equations allowing the estimation <strong>of</strong> evaporation from water,<br />
snow and ice surfaces by means <strong>of</strong> standard observational data, are the<br />
following binomial and monomial equations:<br />
and<br />
E (a t ab&) (es - e2)<br />
E = A U2 (es - e2)<br />
being: E; evaporation -/day; U, wind speed at the height z above the surface<br />
in misec; es and e2 are the maximum water vapor pressure estimated<br />
from surface temperature and water pressure at 2 meters in mb; A, a and b<br />
are experimental constants. For estimating evaporation from snow the values<br />
<strong>of</strong> a -0.18 ab=O. 098 z=lOm should be used in equation (8). For lake evaporation<br />
a=O. 14 b=O. 72 and 9m should be used in equation (8). Other cases are also<br />
discussed in the paper.<br />
RESERVOIR SEDIMENTATION<br />
The paper by Karaushev and Bogeliubevag presents a method for estimating<br />
reservoir sedimentation based on the equation <strong>of</strong> sediment balance as applied to<br />
the whole reservoir or its parts.<br />
The inflow <strong>of</strong> sediments is computed by observational data or by indirect<br />
methods. The outflow <strong>of</strong> sediments is computed based in hydraulic and sediment<br />
characteristics. The determination <strong>of</strong> sedimentation during one year is<br />
reduced to estimating tha portion <strong>of</strong> the sediment inflow that is accumulated in<br />
the reservoir.<br />
7
8<br />
Equation (1) <strong>of</strong> the paper shows the computation <strong>of</strong> sedimentation for any si ze<br />
fraction in a design interval:<br />
m -6<br />
Paj = Z Pi in j - Qter j A tj 10 ils si terj (1)<br />
is1<br />
P aj is the amount <strong>of</strong> sediments <strong>of</strong> all size fractions trapped by the reservoir<br />
during k tj; Pi in j is the inflow <strong>of</strong> sediment for each i-th fraction; Q ter j is<br />
the mean water outflow (m3/s) and Si ter j is the mean turbidity (concentration)<br />
for the time 4 tj and for the i-th fraction <strong>of</strong> size. Equation (2) to (9) are used<br />
for computing si ter j and are based in hydrod namic considerations and the<br />
reservoir characteristics such as length and depth. The amount <strong>of</strong> bed load in<br />
the reservoir is computed by equation (10):<br />
Pa bed j = lom3 (R bed in j - R bed ter j) A tj (1 0)<br />
Pa bed j is the weight <strong>of</strong> bed load in the reservoir (Tons), R bed in j and R bed<br />
ter ' indicate bed load discharge at the initial and terminal discharge sites<br />
(Kgjsec), A tj is the time interval, Bed load, R bed, is computed <strong>with</strong> Shamovls<br />
equation (equations 11 to 14 the text).<br />
The annual accumulation <strong>of</strong> all sediment fractions for the first year <strong>of</strong> reser-<br />
voir operation is obtained by adding the suspended and bed sediments as indicated<br />
in equation (15) <strong>of</strong> the paper. The value Pai (tons) so obtained is transformed<br />
into volumetric units Wai:<br />
- Ys is the specific weight <strong>of</strong> the sediment (T/m3). After the first<br />
duced volume W Wa is used for the computations <strong>of</strong> next year.<br />
For the computation <strong>of</strong> the chronological variations <strong>of</strong> sedimentation the Shamov<br />
method is recommended:<br />
Where Wat is the sediment volume in t years; Wal is the sedimentation volume<br />
during the first year, computed as explained before, W a ext is the extreme<br />
volume <strong>of</strong> sediments in the reservoir, approximately computed by:<br />
Where W is the initial volume <strong>of</strong> the reservoir, Ur is the area <strong>of</strong> river cross<br />
section when discharge is close to maximum and up is the maximum cross<br />
section area <strong>of</strong> the upper pool near the dam.<br />
Surface <strong>Water</strong> Utilization in Arid and Semi Arid Zones. - The paper by Dalinskyly<br />
shows *e experience <strong>of</strong> Tahal-<strong>Water</strong> Planning for Israel Ltd. in various methods<br />
<strong>of</strong> analyzing stream flows. For planning <strong>of</strong> utilization the following information<br />
is required: (a) the average volume <strong>of</strong> annual flows (P.ave),. representing the<br />
stream water resources potential; the average annual feasible utilizable flows<br />
is a portion <strong>of</strong> this value; (b) the stream's flow regime including flood frequency;<br />
(c) the stream variability <strong>with</strong>in a season, a year, or from one year to another.
For determining the annual flood return periods the author proposes the use <strong>of</strong><br />
the well known T = formula; for longer return periods the estimates <strong>of</strong><br />
m<br />
order <strong>of</strong> magnitude <strong>of</strong> annual flows for longer return periods can be obtained<br />
by extrapolation on probability paper.<br />
The next section deals <strong>with</strong> the well known flow-durati on curves,<br />
The concept <strong>of</strong> Ilhorizontal cut" <strong>of</strong> the stream hydrograph is useful in the case<br />
<strong>of</strong> a diversion <strong>of</strong> a stream, as indicated in sketchs 2 and 3 <strong>of</strong> the paper. The<br />
"horizontal cut1' can be expressed mathematically as:<br />
Qd = Qi when<br />
Qd (ad) max when<br />
mix<br />
Qi 3 Qd) m ax<br />
Where: Q: atreamflow discharge<br />
Qd diverted discharge<br />
(Qd) max: maximum diverted discharge<br />
... (2)<br />
For a period <strong>of</strong> n years, a series <strong>of</strong> n annual diverted volumes can be obtained<br />
and the average diverte&annual flow (va) can be calculated for each value <strong>of</strong><br />
(Qd) max. The funtion Ud = f (ad) max has the form indicat& in sketch 4.<br />
Three zones can be distinguished in this curve; in zone I Ud is<br />
'mmax<br />
relatively large and almost constant; in zone II the derivative decrease quickly<br />
as (Qd) max increases; in zone III the derivative trends to eeru, when (Qd)max+ Q<br />
Most <strong>of</strong> diversions will be economically justified in_zone i, and unfeasible in<br />
Zone IU. Formula (3) can be used for calculating Ud from the flow-duration<br />
curve.<br />
Adjustments for baseflows or minimum diverted discharges can be made easily<br />
changing the origin <strong>of</strong> coordinates.<br />
When there are limitations to the diversion <strong>of</strong> baseflow discharges, a "double<br />
cuttt is required as indicated in sketch 5. This case will arise when baseflow<br />
is undesirable due to high salinity or other reasons for diversion. A maximum<br />
desirabledischarge is determined generally by sedimentation conditions. The<br />
value <strong>of</strong> UA, average diverted flow can be computed as:<br />
where ÜB is established by means <strong>of</strong> a horizontal cut and E by means <strong>of</strong> a<br />
vertical cut. Funtions Ug and Uc can be easily calculatfi by computer, An<br />
example is shown in Fig. 2, App A. Using equation (5) UG can be calculated<br />
from the flow-duration curve <strong>with</strong>out use <strong>of</strong> a computer.<br />
Another uae <strong>of</strong> the vertical cut is presented for planning <strong>of</strong> diversiom<strong>with</strong> limitations<br />
<strong>of</strong> maximum discharges due to sedimentation:<br />
Qd m Q<br />
for Q 4 Qdmax Qd = O for Q > IQdmax l<br />
The resulting discharge curve is combined <strong>with</strong> the sediment concentration<br />
flow discharge curve shown in Figure 4, App. A for computing the sediment<br />
transport as detailed in App. B. <strong>of</strong> the paper.<br />
9
10<br />
Next section deals <strong>with</strong> the determination <strong>of</strong> annual storable flows as a .function<br />
<strong>of</strong> reservoir capacity. Assuming that losses during the rainy season can be<br />
neglected, the following equation applies:<br />
- UR: is the n years' averageannual amount <strong>of</strong> water stored in the reservoir<br />
(Net average capacity'RN)<br />
UR)^ is the amount <strong>of</strong> water stored in the i th year;<br />
UR)i Ui when Ui 4 RN<br />
Iud.<br />
i: (RN)i when Ui P (RN)i<br />
Ui: is the annual streamflow<br />
(Rn)i represents the net reservoir capacity in the ith year<br />
Limitations <strong>of</strong> these relations arc indicated in the text (Neglecting losses, etc. )<br />
Relations between K a n d the reservoir efficiencyhs function <strong>of</strong> average<br />
Uave<br />
net reservoir capacity are shown schematically in sketch 6. (The meaning <strong>of</strong><br />
the three zones is the same as in sketch 4). This analysis is important for<br />
preliminary estimates and/or feasibility calculations. Recent investigations<br />
reported in the paper prove that these relations can be approximately estimated<br />
on a regional basis using as a parameter the dimensio<strong>nl</strong>ess standard deviatio-<br />
Formulae for computing RN and RN. based in the decrease <strong>of</strong> the capacity <strong>of</strong><br />
the reservoir due to sedimentation are given in other section <strong>of</strong> the paper. The<br />
paper concludes recommending hydrological investigations to find, on a regional<br />
basis,parameters allowing to represent the main functions discus sed in the<br />
article.<br />
ASSESSING mROLOCICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN DATA -SCARCE AREAS<br />
Estimating flow regime when no data are available. - The first problem <strong>with</strong><br />
which the hydrologist has to deal in data-scarce areas consists <strong>of</strong> obtaining<br />
the hydrological characteristics <strong>of</strong> the region. First <strong>of</strong> all, the average discharge<br />
has to be estimated. For this, a wide variation <strong>of</strong> methods can be used<br />
depending in the availability <strong>of</strong> information<br />
The worst case consists in a complete lack <strong>of</strong> information Here the estimates<br />
should be based in observations in similar gauged zones. The estimations made<br />
for Asejire Project seem to belong to this case. However, even in this extreme<br />
case, the scarce available information should not be neglected. Topography,<br />
altitude, shape, orientation, geology and ve@aHecover <strong>of</strong> the basin are easily<br />
obtained and should be always used.<br />
The most elementary equation is the surface relation:<br />
A<br />
Q=- Qb<br />
Ab<br />
where: Q : Flow at the site under study; Qb : Flow at a base station; A: Surface<br />
<strong>of</strong> the basin under study and Ab: Surface <strong>of</strong> the basin <strong>of</strong> the base station.<br />
This equation, ii obviaidya wrypoor representation <strong>of</strong> the +noniena, and sbculd be used
o<strong>nl</strong>y for gross estimates.<br />
When precipitation data is available,this mdhod can be improved by introducing the<br />
precipitation data for the basin under study. (P) and for the basin <strong>of</strong> the -base<br />
station (Pb). The relation in this case is:<br />
A P<br />
Q a-<br />
A b pb Q b (b)<br />
If the yield <strong>of</strong> the basin is defined as K e 2, equation (b) becomes:<br />
PA<br />
Q-KbPA (4<br />
A variation <strong>of</strong> this method, used sucessfully in Chile and Central America" J<br />
consists 8f analyzing the variation <strong>of</strong> K <strong>with</strong> the basin conditions, topography,<br />
elevation, vegetation, geology, orientation, etc.. . Figure 1 shows an example<br />
<strong>of</strong> this method.<br />
Abiodun uses this method in his paper. No explanations, however, are given<br />
for the criteria in selecting K = O. 04 and for the use <strong>of</strong> a 1:50 years precipitation.<br />
This seems an exaggerately pesimistic estimation and should result<br />
in underestimation <strong>of</strong> the water resources. However, since as the paper explains<br />
that efforts are been made for e<strong>nl</strong>arging the scope <strong>of</strong> the hydrological investigations<br />
in Nigeria, it is hoped that soon it will be possible to revise these computations<br />
<strong>with</strong> more accurata methods.<br />
When the Economic Comission for Latin America decided to make a preliminary<br />
survey <strong>of</strong> the water resources in the Central American Isthmus, the UNbP/<br />
@Mo project prepared the maps <strong>of</strong> curves <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f deficit shown in Figure 2,<br />
wnich allowed first estimates for ungauged areas. The trace <strong>of</strong> the curves<br />
should take into account the already mentioned physical factors.<br />
A further improvement consists <strong>of</strong> the introduction <strong>of</strong> climatic factors. such as<br />
temperature. Examples <strong>of</strong> these methods are those <strong>of</strong> Khosla, Langbein,<br />
Coutagne, Turc and the one propeed by Smith in his paper. Application <strong>of</strong><br />
these methods <strong>with</strong> universal constants produce, sometimes, large errors, so<br />
they should be limited to regional use, previously determining their constants<br />
in gauged areas <strong>of</strong> similar characteristics.<br />
in D'Olivieria's case, the use <strong>of</strong> Coutagne's rule <strong>with</strong> the original constants<br />
would hata introduced very large errors in the estimates. The same occures<br />
when A = 300 Le used in Turc's formula.<br />
As Smith shows in his pa er a good relation between precipitation and tempe-<br />
rature (or Flimatic indexf can be found in a Fegionalized basis. The reporter<br />
has added entra1 American values to Smiths relations for Puerto Rico and<br />
Kansas <strong>with</strong> good results (Figure 3). However, the Constants used in thesb<br />
rnethds elaould be verified-on a regional basis.<br />
A check has been made to all these methods using them to estimate the mean<br />
annual discharge (in mm) <strong>of</strong> eleven CentralAmerican streams <strong>of</strong> quite different<br />
conditions. The following methods have been used: Equations a. b and c,<br />
Coutagne, Turc and Smith, and the results are summarized in table i.<br />
11
12<br />
Table L - Comparison <strong>of</strong> the use <strong>of</strong> several methods for estimating mean annual<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f (mm) <strong>of</strong> Central American streams.<br />
Country Drainage Estimates <strong>of</strong> mean annual run<strong>of</strong>f Obserx<br />
and Basin ed<br />
Station sq Km. Eq.a Eq, b Eq, c Coutagne Turc Smith run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
Guatemala<br />
Candelaria<br />
Honduras<br />
Re. Pimienta<br />
El Salvador<br />
Bande ras<br />
San Marcos<br />
Nicaragua<br />
Dar $0<br />
Tamarindo<br />
Costa Rica<br />
Cachi<br />
El Humo<br />
Palmar<br />
Panamá<br />
David<br />
Majk<br />
849. 5<br />
883.8<br />
432.8<br />
180. O<br />
91 5<br />
165<br />
904.1<br />
135<br />
486 3<br />
1392<br />
321 8<br />
470<br />
720<br />
89 0<br />
560<br />
160<br />
280<br />
2280<br />
26 50<br />
1590<br />
1970<br />
1370<br />
480 550<br />
720 750<br />
840 800<br />
590 620<br />
160 200<br />
250 480<br />
2000 2160<br />
5700 6000<br />
2300 2350<br />
2150 2200<br />
1520 1550<br />
1550<br />
540<br />
7 50<br />
81 O<br />
50<br />
340<br />
21 O0<br />
(6 500)<br />
2270<br />
2880<br />
880<br />
1830 1190 440<br />
1250 320 740<br />
1500 660 500<br />
1500 1000 590<br />
670 50 110<br />
1040 230 500<br />
2250 1700 2000<br />
(5240) (6100) 6270<br />
2420 1800 1970<br />
2620 2150 2650<br />
1670 800 1560<br />
Average<br />
error ‘já 35 21 15 40 39 60<br />
( ) Extrapolations.<br />
Equation (c) gives the best results, followed by the simple areal relation corrected<br />
for taking into account the change in precipitation (Equation b). However, these<br />
are the results for a particular area, Central America, and there is no assurance<br />
that similar results should apply to other regions <strong>of</strong> the world. The best advice<br />
could be to try several <strong>of</strong> these methods and check as soon as possible the results<br />
<strong>with</strong> measurements at the site under study.<br />
Extending short or incomplete records, - The most commo<strong>nl</strong>y used method for<br />
extending short or incomplete records is to correlate the records <strong>of</strong> the station<br />
<strong>with</strong> the records <strong>of</strong> a station <strong>with</strong> longer records. The correlation can be done<br />
<strong>with</strong> mean annual, mean monthly, mean daily or instantaneous discharges: the<br />
quality <strong>of</strong> the correlation decreasing in this order. For daily or instantaneous<br />
dischargestlag effects have to be taken into account. in larger basins --as in<br />
the case reported by Abiodun-- lag effects apply also to monthly discharges.<br />
The quality <strong>of</strong> the correlation can be determined easily by means <strong>of</strong> simple<br />
statistical tests. This quality depende on the physical and meteorological<br />
characteristics <strong>of</strong> the basins being compared. in general, correiations between<br />
two stations nearly located over the same river give good results. The fol1 w-<br />
ing results should be expected when the basins <strong>of</strong> Figure 4 are comparedld:
Basins compared Quality <strong>of</strong> correlation<br />
1 and 2<br />
2 and 3<br />
3 and 4<br />
2 and 5<br />
4 and 6<br />
5 and 6<br />
Good : Basins <strong>of</strong> similar form,<br />
size and orientat i on .<br />
Fair : The orientation <strong>of</strong> the<br />
valley is different.<br />
Poor: Different altitude and<br />
orientation.<br />
Fair : Same form but different<br />
a It it ude.<br />
Poor : Different characteristics<br />
Poor : Different orientation and<br />
altitude.<br />
When no hydrometric information is available, correlation can be tried <strong>with</strong><br />
longer precipitation series.<br />
A long time average can be obtained assuming a constant yield <strong>of</strong> the basin, or:<br />
In this case, long (n year) precipitation records are available, Pt and Qt are<br />
the rainfall and discharge averages over the t years for which discharge data<br />
are available. This method, after checking that Pn = P was used by Quintela<br />
in his paper. However, an interesting verification in that case would had been<br />
correlating the seven year's records <strong>with</strong> the South African station<br />
Studies made in Chile and in the Central American Isthmus show that the results<br />
<strong>of</strong> correlation studies are far more reliable than the methods explained<br />
in the preceeding section. However, extreme caution has to be exercised when<br />
records are too short, carefully avoiding to be too influenced by some statistical<br />
indicators. In this case comparison <strong>with</strong> other methods is an useful auxiliary<br />
tool. Complete verification <strong>of</strong> the base information should be the starting point<br />
<strong>of</strong> any extension <strong>of</strong> hydrological records.<br />
Estimating evaporation and evapotranspiration. - The estimation <strong>of</strong> evaporation<br />
and evapotranspiration has several important implications in hydrological<br />
studies, such as computations <strong>of</strong> reservoir evaporation, water balances and <strong>of</strong><br />
requirements for agriculture.<br />
Direct measurements are difficult; the U. S. Weather Bureau type A pan, the<br />
mQst frequently used instrument in developing countri es, is not always correctly<br />
read and the relation from pan to lake evaporation remains in doubt . The<br />
development <strong>of</strong> a simple formula for computing potential evaporation, is therefore<br />
<strong>of</strong> great importance.<br />
Kuzmin and Vershinin give an excellent summary <strong>of</strong> formulas used in the USSR..<br />
For data-scarce areas, however, formulas based in the physical interpretation<br />
<strong>of</strong> tFe fenomena are quite difficult to apply. Equations (2) and (3) are certai<strong>nl</strong>y<br />
promising and it would be interesting to have more details on them Binomial<br />
formulas are widely used. Equation (9) lightly different coefficients has<br />
been used in Chile and in Central America wit&<br />
<strong>with</strong> unsatisfactory results.<br />
13
14<br />
Equation (9), as reported by Kuemin and Vershinin, ly been compared <strong>with</strong><br />
Blaney -Griddle, Penman, Hargreaves -Christiansen and Meyer formulas<br />
for five locations in the Central American I sthmus <strong>with</strong> the following results:<br />
Table II<br />
Evaporation computed <strong>with</strong> several formulas<br />
Station Madden San José Chorrera Guija G ua t emala<br />
Panamá Costa El El Guatemala Average<br />
Formula Rica Salvador Salvador<br />
USSR, Binomial<br />
lake evaporation 79 8 488 1293 1133 765 89 5<br />
Blaney-Criddle 2062 1749 2041 1910 1647 1882<br />
Penman 1328 1077 1345 1530 1350 1326<br />
Hargreaves-<br />
Christians en 1400 1 O00 1340 1280 1070 1218<br />
Meyer 1394 1227 2147 1577 1628 1594<br />
Potential<br />
Evaporation<br />
(Measured in<br />
pan x O. 77) 1020 1145 1760 1460 1050 1287<br />
in average, the best agreement ie reached Penman formula. However, as the<br />
Hargreaves-Chrintiansen equation was a plied using o<strong>nl</strong>y temperature, humidity<br />
and precipitation (wind was estimated7 it provides a simple alternative, Blaney-<br />
Criddle and Meyer (a simple binomial formula) give excessive values. The USSR<br />
binomial formula gives very low values, which is probably due to the obvious<br />
differences in climate <strong>with</strong> respect to the conditions from which the formula was<br />
de rived.<br />
Sediment studies. - Three <strong>of</strong> the papers show examples <strong>of</strong> sediment determinations,<br />
which quite frequently have to be made <strong>with</strong> insufficient information,<br />
The first problem refers to estimating sediment yields from streams <strong>with</strong>out<br />
sediment measurements. Figure 8 <strong>of</strong> the paper on the Central American Hydro<br />
meteorological Project shows the wide variation, <strong>with</strong>in a regiun, <strong>of</strong> sediment<br />
yields. Thus, determining sediment transportation loads <strong>with</strong>out field measur -<br />
menta is quite unreliable. Hydrologic and hydraulic information from the<br />
gauging stations "somehow improves these estimates. However, very simple sq<br />
diment measurements allow a relatively acc rat estimate <strong>of</strong> suspended sediment<br />
loads. A good correlation has been found18)1 between the concentration <strong>of</strong> a<br />
sample taken <strong>with</strong> a bottle by U n d <strong>of</strong> unskilled obskrvers and the mean concen-<br />
tration obtained <strong>with</strong> conventional sampling.<br />
The sediment rating curves (two examples presented in the papers) allow to<br />
compute the total suspended load in a quite simple form, The points <strong>of</strong> the curve<br />
relating the solid and liquid discharges have a large dispersion (due to errors
in measurements, differences in the raising and decreasing stages <strong>of</strong> a flood,<br />
variations in the availability <strong>of</strong> sediment supply, etc. ), but its mean trend has<br />
been found to be relatively stable, which allows estimates <strong>of</strong> suspended loads<br />
<strong>with</strong> series <strong>of</strong> observations as short as one year.<br />
Determination <strong>of</strong> bed load presents just the opposite problem. Direct measurements<br />
are difficult and provide in most <strong>of</strong> the cases non-meaningful results.<br />
Use <strong>of</strong> well-known formulas is thus encouraged, in spite <strong>of</strong> the fact that they<br />
give enormous differences. Therefore, the use <strong>of</strong> several methods is suggested<br />
including, if possible, methods, such as modified Einstein, which use the available<br />
suspended sediment measurements. It is also quite useful to observe the<br />
'!critical discharge", i. e. discharge at which the bed movement starts, which<br />
in some cases can be determined by detection. <strong>of</strong> stone noise by the stream<br />
gaugers.<br />
Karaushev and Bogeliuva's paper deals <strong>with</strong> the important problem <strong>of</strong> predicting<br />
the chronology <strong>of</strong> the filling <strong>of</strong> a dam, and esents a new interesting approach<br />
to the problem also studied by Brow<strong>nl</strong>v. However, the main difficulty<br />
as seen by this reporter, is the estimation <strong>of</strong> "in situ" specific weight <strong>of</strong> the<br />
settled suspended sediment.<br />
very fine its settlement is very slow and subject to relatively complicate laws.<br />
For this the formula <strong>of</strong> Reference 14/ can be used:<br />
yT : -k k( T-l T Log T - 1 )<br />
15<br />
The problem here is that when the sediment is<br />
k is a constant depending on the size and mechanical distribution <strong>of</strong> the material;<br />
YT the specific weight after T years and y1 the s ecific weight <strong>of</strong> the sediment<br />
("in situ") after one year <strong>of</strong> settling. Referencelggives values <strong>of</strong> k and Y<br />
but to the reporteis knowledge, no check <strong>of</strong> these values have been made for<br />
1,<br />
most <strong>of</strong> the world. These "in situ" determinations are difficult, since it is<br />
practically impossible to obtain indisturbed samples <strong>of</strong> submerged clay or lime.<br />
The use <strong>of</strong> y Ray diffusion probes can be usefull, but they require careful<br />
laboratory calibrations and expensive equipment.<br />
<strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Studies. - Dalinsky's paper present an interesting and simple<br />
method for preliminary studies <strong>of</strong> water resources projects, and should be con-<br />
sidered a preliminary approach to those exposed in other sections <strong>of</strong> this Sym-<br />
posium.<br />
CONCLUSIONS<br />
Assessing hydrological characteristics in data-scarce areas is indeed a difficult<br />
problem The difficulties in the studies increase inversely <strong>with</strong> the amount <strong>of</strong><br />
information. available, not because <strong>of</strong> the intrins ic mathematical and operational<br />
problems, but because extremely good judgement is required. Unfortunately<br />
good hydrological judgement depends on the knowledge <strong>of</strong> the meteorological,<br />
physical and hydrological characteristics <strong>of</strong> the region under study.<br />
Several excellent examples have been shown <strong>of</strong> what can be done <strong>with</strong> scarce<br />
information, but the possibilities <strong>of</strong> big mistakes appeared also evident. These<br />
can be avoided either <strong>with</strong> excellent judgement or <strong>with</strong> the help <strong>of</strong> a few, but<br />
adequate data. These data do not need to be long term series or sophisticated<br />
measurements, thus can be collected at a relatively low cost. This cost represents<br />
o<strong>nl</strong>y a small fraction <strong>of</strong> the eventual overexpenditures or losses from<br />
poorly designed schemes.
16<br />
The ideal, obviously, would be to undertake in each data-scarce area a com-<br />
prehensive meteorological and hydrological survey, as the U DP/WMO projects<br />
in several parts <strong>of</strong> the world. Evaluation <strong>of</strong> these projectslg allows to show<br />
several concrete examples where a small investment in these basic surveys has<br />
resulted in economic benefits several times larger than the expenditures in me-<br />
teorology and hydrology.<br />
REFERENCES<br />
Quintela Gois, C. - Some Criteria Used in Hydrologic Studies <strong>with</strong> <strong>Inadequate</strong><br />
Data. Symposium on the <strong>Design</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> <strong>Projects</strong><br />
<strong>with</strong> <strong>Inadequate</strong> Data. Madrid 1973.<br />
Abiodun, A. A. - <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> <strong>Projects</strong> in Nigeria and the Hydrological<br />
Data Employed in their Planning and Development. Symposium on the<br />
<strong>Design</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> <strong>Projects</strong> <strong>with</strong> <strong>Inadequate</strong> Data. Madrid 1973.<br />
Basso, E., Arriagada, A., Neira H. and Pérez Delgado, M. - An Example<br />
<strong>of</strong> Co-operation for Improving the Hydrological and Meteorological Information.<br />
Symposium on the <strong>Design</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> <strong>Projects</strong> <strong>with</strong> <strong>Inadequate</strong><br />
Data. Madrid 1973.<br />
Smith, R. - Utilizing Climatic Data to appraise Potential <strong>Water</strong> Yields.<br />
Simposium on the <strong>Design</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> <strong>Projects</strong> <strong>with</strong> <strong>Inadequate</strong><br />
Data. Madrid 1973.<br />
Giusti, E. V. and López M. A. - Climate and streamflow <strong>of</strong> Puerto Rico,<br />
Caribbean Journal <strong>of</strong> Science, Vol. 7, pp 87-93, 1967.<br />
D'Oliveira Martens, E. E. and Mimoso Loureira, J. J. - Application <strong>of</strong><br />
Coutagne's and Turc formulas to the Southern Mozambique rivers. Sym-<br />
posium on the <strong>Design</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> <strong>Projects</strong> <strong>with</strong>-<strong>Inadequate</strong> Data.<br />
Madrid 1973.<br />
Kuzmin, P. P. and Vershinin, A. P. - Determination <strong>of</strong> Evaporation in<br />
case <strong>of</strong> the Absence or Inadequacy <strong>of</strong> Data. Symposium on the <strong>Design</strong><br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> <strong>Projects</strong>-<strong>with</strong> <strong>Inadequate</strong> Daia. Madrid 1973.<br />
Materialy Mezhduvedomstvennogo Sovetchchania PO probleme Izuchenia<br />
i Obosnovania Metodov Rasheta Isparenia s vodnoi Poverkhnosti i Suchi.<br />
(Materials <strong>of</strong> Interagency Meetings on the Problem <strong>of</strong> Study and Substantiation<br />
<strong>of</strong> Methods for the Computation <strong>of</strong> Evaporation from <strong>Water</strong> and<br />
Land Surfaces). Edited by CGI, Valdai 1966.<br />
Karaushev, A. V. and Bogeliulova L V. - Computation <strong>of</strong> Reservoir Sedi-<br />
mentation. Symposium on the <strong>Design</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> <strong>Projects</strong> <strong>with</strong><br />
<strong>Inadequate</strong> Data. Madrid 1973.<br />
Dalinsky, J S. - Methods <strong>of</strong> Analysing Defficient Discharge Data in Arid<br />
and Semi-arid zones for the <strong>Design</strong> <strong>of</strong> Surface <strong>Water</strong> Utilization Symposium<br />
on the <strong>Design</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> <strong>Projects</strong> <strong>with</strong> <strong>Inadequate</strong> Data.<br />
Madrid 1973.<br />
Central American Hydrometeorological Pro.iect. - Manual de Instrucciones:<br />
Estudios Hidrológicos (Manual <strong>of</strong> Instructions: Hydrological -<br />
Studies)<br />
Publicación No, 70, San José, Costa Rica 1972.
Central American Hydrometeorological Proiect. - Medida de la Evaporación<br />
(Measurement <strong>of</strong> Evaporation) Publicación No. 19, San José, Costa<br />
Rica,. 19 68.<br />
Brown, C. B. - Discussion <strong>of</strong> "Sedimentation in Reservoirs" by B. J.<br />
Witzig" transactions ASCE Vol. 109, 1944, pp 1080-1086.<br />
Office <strong>of</strong> Indian Affairs, Bureau <strong>of</strong> Reclamation, Tennessee VaBey Authority<br />
Corps <strong>of</strong> Engineers, Geological Survey, Department <strong>of</strong> Agriculture and<br />
Iowa institute <strong>of</strong> Hydraulic Research. - A Study <strong>of</strong> Methods Used in Measurment<br />
and Analysis <strong>of</strong> Sediment Loads in Streams. Report 9 "Density <strong>of</strong><br />
Sediments Deposited in Reservoirs", St. PBul District Sub-Office, Corps<br />
<strong>of</strong> Engineers, Hydraulic Laboratory University <strong>of</strong> Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa<br />
194.<br />
Central American Hydrometeorological Project. - Estimación Preliminar<br />
del Balance de Aguas en el Istmo Centroamericano (Preliminary estimat-<br />
ion <strong>of</strong> the water Balance in the Central American Isthmus) Pubiicación<br />
No. 18, San José, Costa Rica 1968.<br />
World Meteorological Organization. - Twenty Years <strong>of</strong> WMO Assistance.<br />
WMO-No. 338, Geneva, Switzerland 1972.<br />
Central American Hydrometeorological Project. - Deficiendas de Agua<br />
en Centro América B Panamá (<strong>Water</strong> Defficiencies in Central America<br />
and Panad) Repodprepared by G. Hargreaves as a consultant to the<br />
Central American Hydrometeorological Project. Publication No. 88,<br />
Managua, Nicaragua, 1973.<br />
Central American Hydrometeorological Project. - Empleo de la Muestra<br />
Puntual para la Determinación del Sedimento en Suspensión (Use <strong>of</strong> the<br />
Puricbial Sample for the determination <strong>of</strong> Suspended Sediment) Publica -<br />
ciÓn No. 1, San José, Costa Rica, 1967.<br />
Central American Hydrometeorological Project. - Manuel de Instruccio-<br />
nes: Hidrometría (Manual <strong>of</strong> Instructions: Hydrometry) Publicación No.<br />
47, Segunda Edición, San José, Costa Rica, 1972.<br />
17
18<br />
Figure 1. -<br />
Method for estimating<br />
hydrologic yield <strong>of</strong><br />
u ngauged areas<br />
(From Reference lu)<br />
Figure 4. -<br />
Basins used for<br />
checking results <strong>of</strong><br />
correlation<br />
(From Reference ,l#
x<br />
20<br />
300<br />
200<br />
Kansas<br />
L<br />
5u<br />
tra1 America<br />
1 I I<br />
1 O0 200 500<br />
P MEAN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION CENTIMETERS<br />
Figure 3. - Central American Values plotted into Smith's BCI f(P)
ABSTRACT<br />
WATER RESOURCES PROJECTS IN NIGERIA AND<br />
THE HYDROLOGICAL DATA EMPLOYED IN THEIR<br />
PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT<br />
Adigun Ade Abioduna<br />
The need for adequate water supply to meet the demands <strong>of</strong><br />
Nigeria's growing population is well known. However, the technical<br />
adviser is seriously handicapped in his planning efforts by the<br />
lack <strong>of</strong> sufficient information. As a result, different kinds <strong>of</strong><br />
data and different levels <strong>of</strong> efficiency have been employed by the<br />
various agencies which have planned the existing major water related<br />
projects un Nigeria. This investigation shows and intensity <strong>of</strong><br />
rainfalls and the attendant floods, small scale project modelling,<br />
projections based on hydrologic data from other but climatologically<br />
similar places, provision <strong>of</strong> missing data by statistical correlation,<br />
and intensive surveys over short periods to obtain rapid and exten-<br />
sive information. These schemes have been reviewed and the hydrologic<br />
information employed in designing them has been appraised. This study<br />
also shows that Nigeria must intensify her efforts to provide exten-<br />
sive basic data on her surface and groundwater resources if costly<br />
mistakes are to be avoided in the future. A case is also made for the<br />
use <strong>of</strong> new techniques such as Remote Sensing for rapid identification<br />
and appraisal <strong>of</strong> these resources.<br />
RES UME<br />
On sait quels sont les besoins du Nigbria pour un approvision-<br />
nement en eau capable de satisfaire les demandes de sa population<br />
croissante. Or il se trouve que le conseiller technique y est sérieu-<br />
sement handicapé, dans son effort de planification, par l'insuffi-<br />
sance de l'information. Les diverses agences qui sont chargées, au<br />
Nigeria, des grands projets d'aménagement des eaux, doivent utiliser<br />
des données disparates ayant des niveaux d'efficacité différents.<br />
L'analyse des problèmes montre que l'gtude de ces projets doit faire<br />
appel -3 l'information locale sur la fréquence et l'intensité des<br />
pluies, et les crues qui en sont la conséquence (petits aménagements),-<br />
aux évaluations tirées des donnés hydrologiques recueillies dans de<br />
régions climatiques semblables, -à l'utilisation des corrélations<br />
pour boucher les lacunes,- a l'observation intensive sur de courtes<br />
périodes pour étendre rapidement l'observation. Des efforts ont été<br />
faits dans ce sens, mais il reste que le Nigeria doit les intensifier<br />
pour rassembler une masse importante de données de bases sur les<br />
ressources en eaux de surfaces et en eaux souterraines, afin d'éviter<br />
dans l'avenir de coûteuses erreurs. On ne néglige pas non plus<br />
l'utilisation des techniques nouvelles, telles que la détection 'a<br />
distance, pour améliorer lainventaire de ces ressources.<br />
* Lecturer, Dept. <strong>of</strong> Agric. Engineering, University <strong>of</strong> Ife, Ile-Ife,<br />
Nigeria.
22<br />
1. IBTRODUCTIOH<br />
The developat <strong>of</strong> water reaiources miithin the pat deeade, in Nigeria,<br />
has concentrated moetly on the prorieion <strong>of</strong> adequate pipe-borne water for<br />
domeetic and institutional supplies. The trend, however, ia changiiig, and<br />
it is now realieed that water resource8 developent, a8 a ipa$Or economlo<br />
revolutionary tool, ihould Qiphaeise ita total harnesaing, control and<br />
utilization to provide in addition to watar supply, such other benefits 88<br />
hydro-power, irrigation water, flood control, water transportation into and<br />
from the hinterled, fish and wild-life, recreation and pollution abatarsient.<br />
The awaxenees <strong>of</strong> these needa has provoked riome dee Unking and has,<br />
in part, precipitated the putting together <strong>of</strong> the Färat ]81962-68) and the<br />
Second (1970-74) National Developent Plans. The objective <strong>of</strong> the latter,<br />
according to the National Economic Counail, being<br />
"the achievement and mainteamce <strong>of</strong> the highest poeaible rate<br />
<strong>of</strong> increase in the standard <strong>of</strong> living and the creation <strong>of</strong> the<br />
neceieary conditions to this end, inoluding public support<br />
and awareness <strong>of</strong> both the potaiti&le that exist and the sac-<br />
rificee that will be required."<br />
The implementation <strong>of</strong> the variow schemes coatained in them pl- have<br />
experienced sime hardship especially where technical man-power and information<br />
were needed. In many inatances, the technPlogist is <strong>of</strong>ten called upon to<br />
make far reaahing pr<strong>of</strong>essional deaisiona, and quite <strong>of</strong>ten, he ia seriouelg<br />
handicapped in hie $Lanning efforts by the lack <strong>of</strong> scientific information.<br />
This problem <strong>of</strong> planning dthout facta waa amply stated by Andu (1) about<br />
bore hole drilling (for water) in Yeatern Nigeria:<br />
"1 have emphasised the handicap due to ecantinesa <strong>of</strong> hydrolo-<br />
gical data; and eince the gigantia Five Year Developnent<br />
Programme cannot be held up becaune <strong>of</strong> this, the practice<br />
now is to confine drilling to areas <strong>with</strong> favourable geolo-<br />
gical formations. Time facbr has made any exploratory<br />
test drilling virtually impoaaible. The location <strong>of</strong> a bore<br />
hole wen in a geologically favourable area is chancy -<br />
and there ia no sufficient guarantee that water <strong>of</strong> adequate<br />
quantity ehall be etruck. It ie not uncomon to drill far<br />
deeper than expected where the exhibited geological patterme<br />
indieate otherwise...."
In order to achieve thd goals spelled out in the National Dwelopent<br />
Plane, expertise are <strong>of</strong>ten imported to analyae our local data or to use<br />
their "ingenuityn to generate needed scientific information on which our<br />
planning and development programmes could rely.<br />
rical data are either scanty, unreliable or absent, and the synthesized<br />
data can o<strong>nl</strong>y be 88 reliable as the historical but scanty data available.<br />
For many foreign experts, handling the problwie <strong>of</strong> the tropics is a new<br />
educational experience and most <strong>of</strong> these techniml consultants, who are<br />
<strong>of</strong>ten from temperate climates can o<strong>nl</strong>y draw on their bowledge and ewe-<br />
rience <strong>of</strong> their own temperate environment and adapt them to plan for the<br />
needs <strong>of</strong> the tropical zones.<br />
23<br />
More <strong>of</strong>ten than not, histo-<br />
Most <strong>of</strong> the existing water resources sehemes have been handled in the<br />
nanner enunciated above, and sane <strong>of</strong> these techniques can in some caees be<br />
referred to as "educated guesen work by the experts. Hence, this paper<br />
examinea, in closer details, a few <strong>of</strong> the existing water resources projecte<br />
in Higeria <strong>with</strong> a view to high-lighting the kinds <strong>of</strong> hydrologic data, analysis,<br />
and the different levels <strong>of</strong> efficiency that have characterized their planning<br />
and developeat. Such an evaluation should <strong>of</strong>fes some guide-lines for<br />
systematic planning in the future.<br />
2. HYDROLOGICAL DATA COLLECTION<br />
The hydrological data needed to effeat adequate study <strong>of</strong> water resou~.ces<br />
inolude data on precipitation, evaporation, stream-flou and groundwater.<br />
In Nigeria, the sole responsibility for collecting rainfall data<br />
reste on the Federal Meteorological Service (IPPS).<br />
over lux) rain gauging stations throughout the country, utilizing the<br />
recorded data Rom these statione for water resources planning would require<br />
further interpretation and analyeis. This is so because these stations<br />
uere not established in relation to river basins.<br />
Although M!CS maintains<br />
Furthermore, those co-<br />
llecting the rainfall data such as the local school teachers and looal post<br />
<strong>of</strong>fice personnel owe no allegiance to the WITS since the latter never rewards<br />
them in any way or form for their services. Hence, the accuracy and relia-<br />
bility <strong>of</strong> data collected under the aforeaentioned condition are <strong>of</strong>ten in<br />
grave doubt.<br />
The measurement <strong>of</strong> evaporation data acroas the nation is also done by<br />
the employing some 68 clans A evaporation pans in an area almost 590,000<br />
square kilometres. In additiop, there are three lysimeter statione in Nigeria<br />
- two at Ibadan and one in Zaria. Although reservoirs are being built on 8<br />
continuing baais, and evaporation acrose the land v miw between 102 to 204<br />
eentimetrea a year, the impact <strong>of</strong> evaporation on the yields <strong>of</strong> these reservoirs<br />
is probably still not fully realised.
24<br />
Stream flow data are collected by auch ageucies as the IpLand <strong>Water</strong>ways<br />
Department (IWD) and the Ministries <strong>of</strong> Work. The former maintains over 100<br />
gauging stations along the major rivers <strong>of</strong> Higeria for the expresseu purpose<br />
<strong>of</strong> recardiiig stage heights which are used to determine navigable waterways.<br />
The Ministries <strong>of</strong> Work on the other hand are mom interested in potential<br />
areas for the location <strong>of</strong> highway bridges, hence, most <strong>of</strong> their hydrological<br />
stations are non-self recording. The unavailability <strong>of</strong> diacharge measurements<br />
or proper rating curves that could be used to interprete the recorded<br />
stage heights has rendered most <strong>of</strong> the date available unworkable.<br />
In the<br />
Northern States, where there were ZIO reel hydrological net-rrodf until after<br />
1960, most <strong>of</strong> the rivers are non-perennial and shifting; the latter situatinn<br />
makes it mandatory to provide more than one ratirig curve per Station per<br />
seaBon thus rendering most <strong>of</strong> the available record difficult to interprete.<br />
The Geological Survey <strong>of</strong> Nigeria (GSN) is totally responsible for collecting<br />
data on the groundwater resourceB <strong>of</strong> the nation. Most <strong>of</strong> GSl's<br />
efforts have been concentrated in the Northern States where there is abundant<br />
supply <strong>of</strong> grounawater and very little surface water supply. The GSü<br />
in collaboration <strong>with</strong> the United States Geological Survey, haa carried out<br />
some investigation in the Chad Basin complex, and estimates have been made<br />
<strong>of</strong> the life <strong>of</strong> the aquifers in the basin as a result <strong>of</strong> groundwater mining.<br />
However, no attempt has been made to quantify the annual natural groundwater<br />
recharge or the contribution <strong>of</strong> the groundwater to river discharge. Information<br />
is also not available on the groundwater flou conditions.<br />
Although the agencies cited above collect vast quantities <strong>of</strong> data<br />
annually, the fact ia that until very recently, the data collected have been<br />
piecemeal and the hgdrologicd records were never checked nor analyred. In<br />
many cases, the records have no duplicate8 and hence distribution is <strong>of</strong>ten<br />
impomsible. This state <strong>of</strong> affairs is <strong>of</strong>ten due to two major factors - lack<br />
<strong>of</strong> funds and lack <strong>of</strong> badly needed technical mawpower. This dearth <strong>of</strong><br />
adequate hydrological information has not however precluded the planning and<br />
the actual developent <strong>of</strong> a -ber <strong>of</strong> major water schemes in Nigeria euch as<br />
the Kainji Dam and Lake Project on River Niger.
30 HYDBOLOCICAL DATA USED IN EXISTING PROJECTS<br />
Sequential generation <strong>of</strong> hydrological data has been a tool the hydro-<br />
logist haa <strong>of</strong>ten used to create synthetic records, in the absence <strong>of</strong> very<br />
long hiebrical records, that could be used in hia water reaourcea planning<br />
efforts. Since the generated set <strong>of</strong> data is o<strong>nl</strong>y as good as the historiaal<br />
set employed in such a synthesis, the historical set should not be too ahort.<br />
In the absenoe <strong>of</strong> such a hiatorical information, the planning anã derelopent<br />
<strong>of</strong> the existing water resources schemes in Nigeria have relied on such tech-<br />
niques <strong>of</strong> hydrological data derivation as - local information, eduaateä<br />
gueas method, projection based on hydcological data from other but climatolo-<br />
gically similar places, provision <strong>of</strong> missing data by correlation and intenaive<br />
surveya over short periods. A few significant schemes are examined below.<br />
A. KAINJI W B ND D q<br />
The moat wide-ranging water reeourcee project undertaken to date in<br />
Nigeria is the Kainji Dam and kke Saheie on River Niger (Fig.1.). The scheme<br />
was conceived to provide hydro-eleckic pwer, flood control, regulated water<br />
for navigation, and fishery benefits. Although actìml construction started<br />
at the Kainji site in 1964, water levels were never observed there prior to<br />
1959. The two nearest statitma where ologic data were observed on the<br />
Niger prior to 1959 vere Jebba (Nigeria Y and Niamey (Niger), both <strong>of</strong> which<br />
sandwich the Kainji site and are 906 anä 1630 kilometres respectively amy<br />
from the Atlantic mouth <strong>of</strong> Xivex Niger.<br />
The pre-construction density <strong>of</strong> rainfall net work <strong>with</strong>in the catchment<br />
area <strong>of</strong> the Keinji project was too low to serve as the baais for any reliable<br />
hydrological interpretation. Conaequently, new rainfall uging stations<br />
were established for the project and a seva year record K955f959) was<br />
obtained by the consulting f im (2).<br />
method, the total amount <strong>of</strong> rainfall on the catchment area was calculated<br />
for the seven year period.<br />
25<br />
Through the application <strong>of</strong> the Thieasen<br />
Although records <strong>of</strong> water levels at Jebba were available for the years<br />
1915-24 and 1947-64, the ahiftirig positions <strong>of</strong> the gauges during those years<br />
&e it impossible to oorrelate the datum points <strong>of</strong> all the gauges used.<br />
Consequently, a decieim was made to correlate the rainfall <strong>with</strong> the nia-<strong>of</strong>f<br />
<strong>with</strong>in the Niamey-Jebba catchment, using the newly observϊ atage discharges<br />
at Jebba for seven years, and to employ this correlation curve <strong>with</strong> the cal-<br />
culated rainfall data to establish a 1939-59 discharge reaord for Jebba.<br />
Owing to the relative insignificant average value <strong>of</strong> the inflou between<br />
Jebba and KainJi, the obaei-red and the generated discharge data for Jebba<br />
were aaaumed to be the same for linin31 - which ie upstream <strong>of</strong> Jebba - and<br />
were analyzed accordingly. In establishing a satisfactory correlation between<br />
the rainfall and run<strong>of</strong>f data, two steps were taken:
26<br />
Because <strong>of</strong> the wide variation in both the rainfall and the discharge<br />
data betueen gauging stations, o<strong>nl</strong>y monthly totale were uaed in the<br />
dYSi8. This approach was found to produce smoother oorrelation<br />
curves than thore obtained from daily or 54ay records.<br />
The Jebba-Niamey catchment area i8 extensive, and the run<strong>of</strong>f contri-<br />
bution to the Niger flow from the Dahomey catchment area takes a<br />
longer time to reach Jebba than the othr catchent6 downstream.<br />
Hence, a sequence <strong>of</strong> lag time wa8 introduced into the data analysis<br />
to yield an expression heeeby derived as<br />
where<br />
QA,P+= CU~,.O + CP Re&- Ah),$ + C3Rr.n ( 1)<br />
BA,,.,, = Run<strong>of</strong>f <strong>of</strong> the month <strong>of</strong> August from the Jebba-Biamey<br />
catchment srea;<br />
R4.~ U Bainiail <strong>of</strong> the month <strong>of</strong> July on the Dahomey catchment<br />
area;<br />
R($-k),s= Bainfall <strong>of</strong> second-half <strong>of</strong> July plus that <strong>of</strong> firsthalf<br />
<strong>of</strong> August on the Sokoto basin;<br />
e,,. = Rainfall <strong>of</strong> the month <strong>of</strong> August for the rest cf the<br />
Jebba-Niamey catchent area; and<br />
'<br />
C,, C2, C are nui<strong>of</strong>f coefficients far Dahomey, Sokoto and the<br />
rest <strong>of</strong> Jebba-Niamey catchment area respectively.<br />
The introduction <strong>of</strong> the coefficients <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f in the above equation<br />
became necessary as a result <strong>of</strong> the wide variation in the geographioal<br />
nature <strong>of</strong> the catchment area.<br />
Through the step enumerated above, the m 4 f f data from debba-iainey<br />
catchment area were deduced for the period 193959, and th6Se w8re added to<br />
the Niamey observed record. The net result is w.2, the hydrograph <strong>of</strong> the<br />
Niger discharge at Jebba. This figure was in turn used to develop the maas<br />
inflow curve info bke I[a;Lnji. The most important atreaai between gaiaji and<br />
Jebba is River Oïi <strong>with</strong> an estimted aiktchment correlation ooefficient <strong>of</strong><br />
0.2 The remainder <strong>of</strong> the drainage basin had an estimated run<strong>of</strong>f coefficient<br />
<strong>of</strong> 0.1 These coefficients were used by the oonaultants in the equation<br />
wwe<br />
Q,,,,,<br />
= QJebh - -e,, - O.'F?, (2)<br />
Q E river discharge in eubic metres/ulrit <strong>of</strong> time<br />
P = rainfall in cubia metres/unit <strong>of</strong> time<br />
to arrive at the mass inflow curve for Lake Kainji.
The daily discharges used in the hydrologfcal analysis are very<br />
interrelated and the peaks are interdependent. Sime these daily discharges<br />
exhibited a tendency towards persistence in succeasive stream flows, the<br />
Goodrich dietributiona were used in the frequency calculations; the latter<br />
were <strong>of</strong> the exponential type and were similar to the exponential Gabel<br />
distributions.<br />
B. WATER SUPPLY II MIDWESTERN NIGERIA<br />
<strong>Water</strong> resources activities in the lid-West are centred mostly on<br />
water supply. The latter is tapped, in general, from the various aquifere<br />
which underlie 9% <strong>of</strong> the State. The Benin sand aquifer has the greatest<br />
potential - about 333 metres thick extending laterally to an appreciable<br />
distance - but the hydrological studies from which the aquifer chacterietics<br />
could be obtained are etill in the planning stage. m y <strong>of</strong> the ;aquifers,<br />
such as the Benin sand (3) and the Coastal Plain aquifers oan be described<br />
o<strong>nl</strong>y in the moat general tarma because <strong>of</strong> the lack <strong>of</strong> recorded data. There<br />
i8 also no information on the hundreds <strong>of</strong> veils tht tap water daily from<br />
these aquifers.<br />
C. UTER SUPPLY II WESTERN NIGWIA<br />
The Western Nigeria <strong>Water</strong> Corporation is entirely responsible for the<br />
planning and the developinent <strong>of</strong> <strong>Water</strong> supply in the State. The Corporation<br />
obtains the necessary evaporation and rainfall data, m y <strong>of</strong> which are very<br />
long and reliable, from the Federal Baeteerological Service in Lagoa. However,<br />
because <strong>of</strong> the scantiness <strong>of</strong> data on river discharges, the standard praotice<br />
in those parts <strong>of</strong> the West, where surface uater has been developed, is to<br />
base the rater scheme design on the following hydrological assumptions in<br />
addition to a very liberal monthly evaporation <strong>of</strong> 127 mm:<br />
(i) A conservative run<strong>of</strong>f coefficient <strong>of</strong> 4s<br />
(ii) A once-in-50 years recurrence probability in rainfall <strong>with</strong><br />
where P = Percentage probability W rainfall being equal to or<br />
lesa than a given talue;<br />
m = rank <strong>of</strong> the year; and<br />
n = number <strong>of</strong> years <strong>of</strong> record<br />
The catchment annual rua<strong>of</strong>f, Q, which is based on these assumptiom<br />
can be computed from the expreseion<br />
where A = Basing drainage mea:<br />
27
28<br />
= Baein rainfall value correspnâing to the probability <strong>of</strong><br />
orne-in-% yeare oocurenae.<br />
Co = Coefficient <strong>of</strong> m f f for the basin.<br />
]Equation (3) or a forin <strong>of</strong> it hae been widely applied on the numerous eurfaae<br />
water apply eohetmee in the West. Eowvwr, bey%$ <strong>of</strong> the vast arai- area<br />
<strong>of</strong> 7,500 sq. kilometres that is governed by the,project, a form <strong>of</strong> the equation<br />
(3) shown above was not employed to predict the maximm probable flood.<br />
Instead, Pr<strong>of</strong>essor M. Parde <strong>of</strong> the University <strong>of</strong> Grenoble in France, a<br />
speciaìiet in the field <strong>of</strong> flood studies, advised the consultants that a<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f in the order <strong>of</strong> 490 litres per second per square kilometre is known<br />
to hava occured <strong>with</strong>in West African strema <strong>of</strong> similar importance ae the<br />
Oehun river on which the achenie is estsb1ished.b Sapply Ibadan aith water.<br />
Hence thb value was used in caltuleting the project's spillway<br />
deeign flood <strong>of</strong> 3680 cmbic metres per second.<br />
The developaenf <strong>of</strong> groundwater resonroes in the West has encountered<br />
a number <strong>of</strong> difficulties. When the existing wells were been developed, the<br />
areal extent <strong>of</strong> the bed-rock formation was not fully known, and the lithographic<br />
characterietics <strong>of</strong> the water bearing formations, in many cases, were<br />
etill to be studied. Absence <strong>of</strong> perfonaance data on the wells has o<strong>nl</strong>y<br />
aggravated the situation, and in most cases, local informtion on dug weU, was <strong>of</strong>ten obtained from the inhabitanto.<br />
The Geological Survey <strong>of</strong> Nigeria (WN) in collaboration <strong>with</strong> the United<br />
States Geological Survey haa undertaken aome imestigativ6 work which had led<br />
them to edict a 30 year yielding life for the Lake Chad Baain middle eone<br />
aquifer Kg.3) at a <strong>with</strong>drawal rate <strong>of</strong> 5000 gph <strong>with</strong> wells placed at 16 kilometres<br />
apart. Huiidred8 <strong>of</strong> bore holes have been drilled but co-ordinated dayto-day<br />
performance data on these bore-holes are lacking. Most <strong>of</strong> the information<br />
that can be readily obtained on the basin's aquifere are available o<strong>nl</strong>y<br />
in special reports. It is also irapossible to undertake a meaninghil study<br />
-<br />
<strong>of</strong> the basin's aquifere <strong>with</strong>in Bigeria along since four countries share the<br />
bain area. The FAQarpd' -@are assisting the Lake Chad Basin Commiedon<br />
a regional organization <strong>of</strong> the countries that have territorial claims over<br />
parts <strong>of</strong> the basin, to<br />
(i) Compile all the available date in the baain;<br />
(ii) melop an analme compu4er model that would miwilate au. the<br />
activities that affect the quantity <strong>of</strong> water in the basin; and<br />
(iii) Define the various aquifers in the Chad bydro-geological basin and<br />
erdeavour to arrim at a synthesie or composite picture covering<br />
the correlations between the atmospheric, emrface and groundwater<br />
ae well as between individual aquifera.
From hydrological stand point, the Kainji project has been more intenaively<br />
studied than any other water scheme in Nigeria. A number <strong>of</strong> houn<br />
standard methods were used to develop some reasonable results such as the<br />
correlation established between run<strong>of</strong>f and rainfall <strong>of</strong> the Jebba-Niamey<br />
catchment area. Since the project design flows were in prt derived from the<br />
discharge data obtaineä at Niamey, the accuracy <strong>of</strong> the rating curve used to<br />
determine the Niamey discharges sho<strong>nl</strong>d have been verified. The importance<br />
<strong>of</strong> this project also warranted a longer hydrological record than the 20 year<br />
reconstituted record used. This could have been sequentially generated.<br />
In order to emure enough water supply, coneervative estimates <strong>of</strong> rainfall,<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f and liberal estimater <strong>of</strong> evaporation have been the 8taRdard<br />
practice in the West. But such educated guesaes have not prevented water<br />
shortages resulting froa both drought and under-design for the needs <strong>of</strong> the<br />
communities served. It appears that these educated guess teahniques haye<br />
never taken into consideration that moat <strong>of</strong> these watershetie would be opened<br />
up in the near future ae a result <strong>of</strong> extensive and medhanised farming practices.<br />
The occurence <strong>of</strong> %aximam possible rain-stOmR vouìd also yield higher peak<br />
flow than most <strong>of</strong> the existing achemea, except the Aaejire project, have<br />
been designed to handle. And the eubsequent floafiing resulting from the<br />
faracing practices or the maximum rainstorm would not o<strong>nl</strong>y wipe aut these<br />
water schemes but would also endangaz lives and property.<br />
Groundwater develogaent based on inadequate or scanty data has been<br />
found to be both unecoaoioic<strong>nl</strong> and frustrating. Typical examples include<br />
bore hole failures at Agbor and Warri owing to the mollapse <strong>of</strong> cui-,<br />
and poor yield as a result <strong>of</strong> drilling for water in granite aone at Ijebu-<br />
Ode. The problame <strong>of</strong> grodwater developaent in the Hid-Vest are eubatan-<br />
tial, and o<strong>nl</strong>y a through analysis can fore-stall more problema in the<br />
future. And the efforts <strong>of</strong> Mo <strong>with</strong>in the chad Baain has aided and aacele-<br />
rated not o<strong>nl</strong>y the haraonizatim <strong>of</strong> the existing data, but aiso the evaluation<br />
<strong>of</strong> data concerning evaporation and temperature meaeurenent by infra-red<br />
aerie1 photography.<br />
5. HPDBOLOOIcbL RESS(XIRCE<br />
Planning <strong>with</strong>out facts ehould na longer plague the water resource8<br />
program <strong>of</strong> the nation, mre especially, as we shift our emphiusis from<br />
single giirpose water supply to multi-purpose schemes such aa the Kainji and<br />
Kano river schemes. The latter, also a victim <strong>of</strong> hydrological data scarcity<br />
ia enviaaged to pride barrefita in such areas ae irrigation, hydro-pouer and<br />
flood control.<br />
In order to enmare systematic planning in the future, the<br />
newly created <strong>Water</strong> Resoaaraoa btitute.8haeld eatablieh a Hydrological<br />
resource^ Centre whoee primary hction uill firet be the aollecting and<br />
compiling <strong>of</strong> the existing piecemeal data and nates that are scattered all over<br />
29
30<br />
the nation. This responsibility should be a continuow one and the inforaur-<br />
tion so collected ahould be published annually and made available to the<br />
public on eale. The centre should also standardice, nation wide, the inetru-<br />
mentation and hyàrological data collecting and recording procedures.<br />
The information available to the centre can be upgraded both in quality<br />
and in quantity through the application <strong>of</strong> Remote Sensing Technique (RST).<br />
The latter ia currently available through participation in the United Stateet<br />
urth ~esourcea ~echnology Satellites program (EE~TSP). The data ana imegery<br />
obtaiasd though such a pmg~am can be utilised in sweral ways including<br />
the rapid identification and appraisal <strong>of</strong> our water resource^. The immediate<br />
hydrological investigation required in Nigeria, uuder the EELTSP, includes:<br />
The overall delienation <strong>of</strong> the aquifers <strong>of</strong> the Chad Basin and the<br />
pattern <strong>of</strong> the groundwater movsment in the basin. Such information<br />
can be integrated into the basin'e existing analogne model;<br />
the monitoring <strong>of</strong> changes in reservoira' levels resulting from<br />
evaporation and changes in rater courses resulting Rom erosibn and<br />
siltation;<br />
%he identification and quantification <strong>of</strong> the groundwater resources<br />
<strong>of</strong> Southern Nigeria including the location <strong>of</strong> the position and<br />
evaluation <strong>of</strong> the extent <strong>of</strong> salbwater intrusion along the coastal<br />
aquifers. Data obtained from ERTSP would generate more awareness<br />
<strong>of</strong> the problem in surface water developeat and would provide<br />
needed information on which conjunctive ground and surface water<br />
programa oould be baed.<br />
6. CoáIcLusIOB<br />
Within the past decade, a =ber <strong>of</strong> water resources schemes have been<br />
developed, ard in genSral, these schemes hare been plaaned <strong>with</strong> very limited<br />
hydrological data tbat were <strong>of</strong>ten extended through the applicaticm <strong>of</strong><br />
statistical techiqueo to provide rational design parameters. In others,<br />
"educated guess" technique wan subatitnted. The net resuit <strong>of</strong> auch methode<br />
haa been the failure <strong>of</strong> many water supply schemes to meet demands eapeoially<br />
aurfng the dry seaeon ana the location <strong>of</strong> unproductive bore-hoiea which had<br />
to b abaadoned.<br />
The future <strong>of</strong> io~iiy <strong>of</strong> these a ches osnnot be accurately preàicted at<br />
this point. bwever, there is the urgent need to upgrade the scanty data,<br />
through a contirmoire qioiritoring proc688, on which them schemee were built.<br />
such a step WOUM provide a sound baeie for ature schemer, and would e mme<br />
the propat execution <strong>of</strong> any modification on existing sc@nms when warranted.
The scarcity <strong>of</strong> reliable data is mostly due to the acute shortage <strong>of</strong><br />
hydrologists and middle-level techniciana in this diecipline. Herne, it<br />
will be necessary for the <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> IMtitUte in collaboration dth<br />
some <strong>of</strong> the eriating Universities to develop and execute achenes uhereby<br />
a large number <strong>of</strong> such teohnologiate and techniciana might be trained<br />
locally to meet the urgent needs <strong>of</strong> the nation.<br />
In order to eneure systematic planning in the futare, the power to<br />
collect, compile and hairnonise all the hydrological data in the country<br />
should be vested in a Hydrological Resource Centre. The hydrological<br />
information available to such a centre could include data and imagery<br />
obtained through the use <strong>of</strong> Remote Sensing Technique.<br />
The information<br />
obtained will enable the nation to accelerate the pace <strong>of</strong> ita natural<br />
resources developneat.<br />
31
32<br />
1.<br />
2.<br />
3.<br />
4.<br />
5.<br />
6.<br />
7.<br />
8.<br />
9.<br />
BIBLIOGWHY<br />
Andu, J. A. (1965). Exploitation and Developent <strong>of</strong> Groundvater in<br />
Western Nigeriay Ministry <strong>of</strong> Works and Trsmeport, Ibadan, Nigaria.<br />
IJEDECO (1961). Niger Dame Project, Vol. 2, <strong>Hydrology</strong> and Beilervoir<br />
Operation, Report auhitted to the Fedaral Ooverment <strong>of</strong> Nigeria,<br />
Lagoa<br />
Tahal (<strong>Water</strong> Planning) Ltd. (1965). Master Plan for Urban and Rural<br />
<strong>Water</strong> Supply, Report submitted to the Hid-West Ministry <strong>of</strong> Works and<br />
l!rsnsport, Benin, Nigeria.<br />
Tahal Consulting Ebgineers Ltd. (1969). Akungba-Shapureka-Ido&<br />
<strong>Water</strong> Supply Sahane, Plauning Report suinuitte8 to the Western Nigeria<br />
<strong>Water</strong> Corporation, Ibadan.<br />
Tahal and Motor Columbus Ltd. (1961). Ibadan <strong>Water</strong> Supply - hejire<br />
Daia, Final <strong>Design</strong> Report submitted to the Western Nigeria Hinietry <strong>of</strong><br />
Works and Tranpport.<br />
Miller, B. E., R. E. Johnaton, J. A. Oloni, and J. A. Umma (1968).<br />
Groundwater ñyärology <strong>of</strong> the Chad Baein in B om and Dikwa Emiratem,<br />
N.E. Mgeria, <strong>with</strong> special Eaphasis on the Flow Life <strong>of</strong> the Artmian<br />
System. USGS <strong>Water</strong> Supply Paper 1757-1, U.S. Govt. Printing Oîîïce,<br />
Washington, D.C.<br />
üHESC0 (1970). Study <strong>of</strong> <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> in the Chad Basin, Report<br />
on the resulta <strong>of</strong> the hoject, Conclueionis and Recamendatione, PSriS,<br />
fiFrance.<br />
HEDECO (1970). Feasibility Study-gan0 River Project: Report eubdtted<br />
to the %o State Winistriea <strong>of</strong> Agriculture sad Iaatursl Besotarcea, and<br />
Worka and Sumeye, b o , Isigeria.<br />
Federal Ministry <strong>of</strong> Infonuation, Iagos (1970). Second Hationel<br />
Developent Plan, Fed. Govt. Printer, Lagos, Hgeria.
3G1 Ma2 <strong>of</strong> W Africa showing R Niger and its tributaries<br />
---_ -~~drograph<br />
I<br />
I L -<br />
derived Smm rom<br />
4dL<br />
- N+ogTh<br />
derived From &sei<br />
. ved. w* -.rat5<br />
FIG 2 Hydrogragh <strong>of</strong> R Niger at bbba (1955-571 (Reference 2)<br />
33<br />
..
ABSTRACT<br />
AN EXAMPLE OF REGIONAL CO-OPERATION FOR IMPROVING<br />
THE HYDROLOGICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION<br />
Eduardo Basso*<br />
Andrés Arriagadann<br />
Hcsrnando Neira**<br />
Manuel PBrez Delgado***<br />
T&e Centra8 A ~s~ican Hydrometeorological Project initiat ed<br />
in September 1961 rapresents & co-operative effort among the countries<br />
<strong>of</strong> the Central Amsricea Isthmus (Costa Rica. El Salvador, Guatemala,<br />
Honduras, Hiceragua and Panam%) and the United Nations Development<br />
Programme, acting aar executivo agency the World Meteorological<br />
Organizatioa. Its objectives are the following: (i) installation <strong>of</strong> a<br />
basic netW6Pk <strong>of</strong> meteorological and hydrological stations, (ii)<br />
collection, preceesing and publication <strong>of</strong> the data, (iii) training<br />
<strong>of</strong> personnel by neans <strong>of</strong> course.%, fellowships or through technical<br />
publications end manuals and (iv) the institutional strenghtening <strong>of</strong><br />
the meteorological and hydpalogical services in the area. Important<br />
Project activities have been the Paeting <strong>of</strong> new equipment used in<br />
developed countries in order to study their application to the<br />
characteristics and tropical climate <strong>of</strong> the area, and the development<br />
and application <strong>of</strong> methods for meteorology, hydrology and sediment<br />
studies <strong>with</strong> limited information. It is concluded that their use in<br />
other areas <strong>with</strong> similar conditions can be useful and that regional<br />
cooperation can be one effective means for coping <strong>with</strong> inadequate<br />
data through the pooling <strong>of</strong> individual countries efforts.<br />
RES UMEW<br />
El Proyecto Hidrometeorológico Centroamericano iniciado en -<br />
Setiembre de 1967 constituye un esfuerzo cooperativo entre los paí-<br />
ses del Istmo Centroamericano (Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala,<br />
Honduras, Nicaragua y Panamá) y el Programa de las Naciones Unidas<br />
para el Desarrollo, actuando como agencia ejecutora la Organización<br />
Meteorolögica Mundial. Sus objetivoe principales los constituyen: -<br />
(i) la instalación de una red básica de estaciones meteorológicas e<br />
hidrolbgicas, (ii) la recolecciön, proceso y publicación de los da-<br />
tos, (iii) el adiestramiento del personal ya sea con becas y cursos<br />
o mediante publicaciones y manuales tgcnicos, y (iv) el robusteci--<br />
miento institucioaal de los servicios meteorolbgiccs e hidrológicos<br />
en el área. Actividades importantes del Proyecto han sido la prueba<br />
de nuevos equipos utilizados an países desarrollados para estudiar<br />
su adaptación a lae características y clima tropical del area, y el<br />
desarrollo y aplicacids de métodos para la ejecución de estudios mo<br />
teorológicos, hidrol6gicas y de sedimentación con información limi-<br />
tada. Se concluye estimando que su uso en otras áreas COQ condicio-<br />
nes similares puede ser de utilidad.<br />
* Project Manager, Central American Hydrometeorological Project<br />
** Hydrologist Expert., Central American Hydrometeorological Project<br />
*** Hydrometeorological Expert, Central American Hydrometsorological<br />
Pro j ect
36<br />
INTRODUCTION<br />
The Central American Hydrometeorological Project is a joint effort betweenthe<br />
Governments <strong>of</strong> the Central American Isthmus ( Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guate<br />
mala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panamá) and the United Nations Development<br />
Programme. The World Meteorological Organization acts as Executing Agency<br />
The Project started in September 1967, at a cost <strong>of</strong> 9. 2 millions dollars (3.3<br />
millions UNDP and 5.9 millions Governments), which makes this Project one<br />
<strong>of</strong> the largest in this field. in March 1973 a second phase <strong>of</strong> the Project was<br />
started devoted mostly to the Coordination and Consolidation <strong>of</strong> the activities in<br />
Meteorology and <strong>Hydrology</strong>. This second phase has a duration <strong>of</strong> three years<br />
and the global contribution <strong>of</strong> UNDP adds to 1.3 millions dollars.<br />
PROJECT OBJECTIVES<br />
The main objectives <strong>of</strong> the first phase <strong>of</strong> the Project, already completed were<br />
the following:<br />
Installation <strong>of</strong> 290 hydrometric stations in the six countries.<br />
Installation <strong>of</strong> 830 climatological stations (60 main, 240 secondary and 530<br />
pluviomet ric).<br />
c) Institutional strenghtening <strong>of</strong> the Meteorological and or Hydrological Services<br />
and the collection, preparation and publication <strong>of</strong> the data in both the new<br />
and old stations.<br />
d) Training <strong>of</strong> the personnel, by means <strong>of</strong> fellowships, seminars, courses,<br />
publications and on-the-job training.<br />
At the end <strong>of</strong> the project the number <strong>of</strong> stations constructed surpassed by far the<br />
goals; more than 350 hydrological and more than 950 <strong>of</strong> all kinds<br />
<strong>of</strong> meteorological stations were completed. The achievements in the activities<br />
<strong>of</strong> data processing and publication as in personnel training were most remarkable.<br />
In some countries, meaningful results were obtained in the important task <strong>of</strong><br />
institutional building. In others the present condition is not yet adequate for the<br />
needs <strong>of</strong> their development, but it is expected that during the Second Phase it<br />
will be possible to complete the necessary arrangements for this. For Co-ordinating<br />
at a regional level the activities in Meteorology and <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Investigations,<br />
a Regional Committee was created. This Cornmiittee, formed by<br />
the presidents <strong>of</strong> the National Coordinating Committees <strong>of</strong> the six countries, has<br />
proved to be an excellent arrangement and can be considered a good example <strong>of</strong><br />
regional Co-or dination.<br />
PRE-PROJECT CONDITIONS<br />
The conditions before the beginning <strong>of</strong> the project varied widely from country to<br />
country. However, in some countries it was practically inexistent. Although<br />
about 180 hydrometric stations were in operation in 1966, o<strong>nl</strong>y a few provided<br />
reliable data. Even these had a very short period <strong>of</strong> records, normally less.<br />
than five years. In some countries the stations consisted o<strong>nl</strong>y <strong>of</strong> a staff gauge,<br />
<strong>with</strong>out bridge or cable for flood measurements, in other cases limnigraplis were<br />
installed <strong>with</strong>out a device for checking the river levels, Sediment measurements<br />
were made in o<strong>nl</strong>y one country and water quality determinations were made. How<br />
ever, the main deficiencies arised from the methods <strong>of</strong> collecting and processing
the data. The O. 6 depth method <strong>of</strong> velocity measurement was used in some cases<br />
introducing errors in the stream gauging data. The discharge rating curves were,<br />
generally extrapolated graphically, and no checks were made for the consistency<br />
<strong>of</strong> the resulting information. Even though most <strong>of</strong> these defects were recognized<br />
the counterpart pcrsonnel lacked the means and the influence for improving the<br />
situation.<br />
The situation in Meteorology was similar. Even considering that some countries<br />
had fairly well organized cervices, the network was absolutely insufficient for<br />
the needs <strong>of</strong> the region. Several Services had o<strong>nl</strong>y one main meteorological<br />
station, in the principal airport. The number <strong>of</strong> secondary stations in good work<br />
ing standard were less than 20. The rainfall observation network comprised o<strong>nl</strong>y<br />
the.main inhabited areas, and even there, o<strong>nl</strong>y a few recording instruments were<br />
available. Some countries showed a complete lack <strong>of</strong> rain recorders and others<br />
<strong>of</strong> evaporation stations. The processing <strong>of</strong> the data was quite rudimentary, and<br />
their publication <strong>with</strong> a few exceptions, inexistent. O<strong>nl</strong>y five meteorologist <strong>with</strong><br />
university degree were available, and all five worked in one country. Practically,<br />
no co-ordination between meteorological and hydrological services existed.<br />
TRAINING<br />
The activities <strong>of</strong> personnel training at all levels were considered fundamental<br />
and received a preferential treatment from the project.<br />
Training in the Region. Training in the region was done <strong>with</strong> courses --in-<br />
cluding cour s e s by correspondence - -, seminar s, on-the - job training, confer ence s<br />
and publications. Without including on the job training, approximately 500 people<br />
received formal or informal courses. This does not include the personnel<br />
trained by other WMO projects, such as the Chair <strong>of</strong> Meteorology at the University<br />
<strong>of</strong> Costa Rica or the Mobile Center for Training <strong>of</strong> Meteorological Personnel.<br />
Practically all the graduates <strong>of</strong> these courses are engaged in activities connected<br />
<strong>with</strong> the Project.<br />
Fellowships. 37 fellowships <strong>with</strong> a total <strong>of</strong> 324 men-month were made available<br />
to the Project, for the preparation <strong>of</strong> new personnel or for the improvement<br />
<strong>of</strong> the training <strong>of</strong> the existing ones. These fellowships were a fundameotal<br />
completement for the local training which was devoted mai<strong>nl</strong>y to a large number<br />
<strong>of</strong> low level technicians. Most <strong>of</strong> the fellows completed successfully their<br />
studies, and some obtained higher degrees in well known Universities. The importance<br />
given to the practical training must be noted; the course for preparing<br />
technicians in meteorological instruments--Buenos Aires-- must be specially<br />
remarked. Unfortunately, some <strong>of</strong> the fellows ieft their jobs <strong>with</strong> the Government<br />
sometime after the completion <strong>of</strong> their studies, which means that their<br />
and UNDP's effort was wasted. However, the percentage <strong>of</strong> fellows in this<br />
case was relatively low, 13%. in addition, the Project co-operated actively<br />
to obtain fellowships from national and multilateral sources. in such a way,<br />
64 more fellowships were obtained, <strong>with</strong>out including the ones used for the<br />
courses already mentioned. As a consequence, the total <strong>of</strong> trained personnel<br />
has been significantly higher than the quantity that should have resulted o<strong>nl</strong>y<br />
from the fellowships assigned to the Project. Even so, the shortage <strong>of</strong> capable<br />
personnel can still be noticed, specially in the Meteorological Services.<br />
31
38<br />
Publications. The Project considered that one the most effective forms <strong>of</strong><br />
training in a dispersed regional project was the intensive use <strong>of</strong> technical<br />
publications. in general, the reaction to these publications were encouraging.<br />
and resulted in a large demand <strong>of</strong> them, both from the countries <strong>of</strong> the area<br />
and from outside. Their main merit aves to the fact that bibliography in<br />
Spanish was made a.vailable to all counterpart levels.<br />
pared, about 100 technical publications and 60 reports had been released, .To<br />
make the diffusion <strong>of</strong> Project activities more available a by-mounthly newsletter<br />
was edited, Over 500 copies <strong>of</strong> each issue were printed, making possible for<br />
all members <strong>of</strong> the Committee to know the activities <strong>of</strong> the others. The editorial<br />
activity <strong>of</strong> the Project stimulated also the publications <strong>of</strong> the counterpart, increasing<br />
their technical reports and data publication. By far the most important<br />
publication <strong>of</strong> the Project is the "Manual <strong>of</strong> Instructions". which has been plan-<br />
ned in four volumes.<br />
three chapters: (1) Field measurements and installations, (2) Data processing<br />
and (3) Sediments. Standards are set for the installations, field measurement<br />
and methods for processiqg the information. The second volume is devoted to<br />
IIHydrological Studies" comprising: (1) Verification and Correction <strong>of</strong> Hydrolo -<br />
gical Records, (2) Extension <strong>of</strong> Hydrological Records, (3) Duration and Variation<br />
Studies, (4) Hydrometeorological Studies, (5) Floods. (6) Draughts, (7) Hydrological<br />
Forecasts (8) Hydrological Studies for Power Developments (9) Agricuitural<br />
<strong>Hydrology</strong> (10) Economic Aspects in <strong>Hydrology</strong> (11) Use <strong>of</strong> Mechanical Data<br />
Processing. The third volume refers to "Meteorological Observations" and has<br />
been edited o<strong>nl</strong>y in a preliminary form. The last volume "Ground <strong>Water</strong> Hydro-<br />
logy" will be prepared -h the future.<br />
When this paper was prg<br />
The first one deals <strong>with</strong> "Hydrometry" and comprises<br />
The Manual is aimed to the medium level<br />
technicians and includes several numerican examples, <strong>with</strong> information <strong>of</strong> the<br />
area. Special emphasis has been given to the specific problems arising from<br />
the lack <strong>of</strong> long and reliable records. (1) (2).<br />
EQUIPMENT<br />
. The equipment component, formed the major part <strong>of</strong> UNDP's contribution,<br />
adding to a total <strong>of</strong> about 1,9 million dollars.<br />
Meteorological Equipment. The main meteorological stations (type A) were<br />
in general provided <strong>with</strong> universal wind recorder, mercury barometer, microbarograph,<br />
psychrometer, maximum and minimum thermometers. thermohydrograph,<br />
set <strong>of</strong> geothermometers, Robitzch actinograph, Campbell-Stokers heliograph,<br />
Piche and tank evaporimeter, tank level anemometer, water thermometer,<br />
raingauge and rain recorder (Figure 1).<br />
The ordinary climatological stations were provided <strong>with</strong> psychrometer, maximum<br />
and minimum thermometers, raingauge, rain recorder and Piche evaporimeter.<br />
in most <strong>of</strong> the station <strong>of</strong> this type evaporation tank, pan level anemometer, and<br />
thermohydrograph were installed and in several, anemograph, heliograph, actinograph<br />
and or soil thermometers were also included. (Figure 2). Some stations<br />
included also agrometeorological instruments. such as soil-moisture gauges,<br />
dew recorders, lysimeters, extrasoil thermometers. etc. Several pre-Project<br />
stations were reinstalled and or completed <strong>with</strong> new instruments.<br />
The meteoro<br />
logical equipment included also six standard barometers, which were included<br />
in the principal station <strong>of</strong> each country, replacement parts for the period <strong>of</strong> the<br />
project and for some time after its completion and equipment for inspection and<br />
maintenance. Also included were equipment for part <strong>of</strong> a regional laboratory<br />
for calibration <strong>of</strong> meteorological equipment. The equipment provided was, in
general, <strong>of</strong> good quality, and adequate for the needs <strong>of</strong> the Project. As far as<br />
possible equipment <strong>of</strong> complicated operation or maintenance was avoided, preferring<br />
simple and sturdy ones suitable for tropical conditions. In some cases<br />
'defects were detected, but they were satisfactorily corrected by the manufacturers,<br />
by introducing several changes in the design <strong>of</strong> the instruments.<br />
Hydrological Equipment. The stations installed included the total or part<br />
<strong>of</strong> the following elements provided by UNDP: limnigraph --<strong>of</strong> the float type or<br />
bubble gauge type (manometric) --damping pipe, housings, connections and pack<br />
ings <strong>of</strong> the limnigraph, sets <strong>of</strong> staff gauges, cables and accessories (Cable caq for the cableway instailation plus a reasonable quantity <strong>of</strong> spare parts.<br />
portant to note the fact that the standardized prefabrication <strong>of</strong> the construction<br />
elements, especially the cableway towers, which were designed for 3, 6 and 9<br />
meters height, allowed a simplification <strong>of</strong> the construction <strong>of</strong> the stations, making<br />
easier its transportation and mounting;a fact that was <strong>of</strong> fundamental importance<br />
to reach isolated and difficult zones (Figure 3). The equipment was designed in<br />
order to ensure a maximum <strong>of</strong> safety during construction and operation, providing<br />
the cable cars <strong>with</strong> safety brakes, the towers <strong>with</strong> stairways protected <strong>with</strong><br />
safety rings, etc.. . In addition the publication <strong>of</strong> standards <strong>of</strong> construction and<br />
operation aimed to ensure this objective. As a consequence <strong>of</strong> this, and reversing<br />
the pre-project conditions, serious accidents happened neither during the<br />
constructionnor during the operation <strong>of</strong> the stations. (Figure 4) The equipment<br />
included a current-meter calibrating tan!!, which was installed at the Universidad<br />
Centroamericana in Managua. Probably due to the careful supervision <strong>of</strong><br />
the design and construction <strong>of</strong> the building, the installations remained undamaged<br />
by the earthquake <strong>of</strong> December 1972.<br />
instruments for level recordings, three digital limnigraphs were qperated expe-<br />
rimentally for some years. The results <strong>of</strong> their operation was, in general, LUISA<br />
tisfactory, because <strong>of</strong> extreme humidity and lack '<strong>of</strong> adequate maintenance. This lias<br />
proved that the selection <strong>of</strong> mechanical equipment was a wise one, and that the<br />
gradual introduction <strong>of</strong> digital equipment should wait for more development to<br />
solve the observed defects and to allow training <strong>of</strong> specialized personnel.<br />
39<br />
It is im-<br />
in order to gain experience <strong>with</strong> modern<br />
Equipment for flow and Sediment Measurement. The Hydrological services<br />
were provided <strong>with</strong> flow meters, counterweights, winches and cranes, etc. to<br />
ensure the adequate operation <strong>of</strong> the hydrometric network. Selecting the type <strong>of</strong><br />
current meters was also subject <strong>of</strong> detailed studies, and it was decided to use<br />
both the axial and the Price current meter. after a consideration <strong>of</strong> their relative<br />
merits. The manual <strong>of</strong> Instructions (1) <strong>of</strong> the Project contains instructions regarding<br />
the criteria to be used in selecting one or other instrument. in addition,<br />
measurements made in Costa Rica and El Salvador proved that the difference<br />
between the measurements made <strong>with</strong> both kinds <strong>of</strong> current meters is very small.<br />
The Project started and intensive programme <strong>of</strong> sediment sampling, for which<br />
the acquisition <strong>of</strong> standardized D49 and DH-48 samplers has been fundamental<br />
for the successful achievement <strong>of</strong> this goal. In addition the Project provided<br />
construction,laboratory, navigation and transportation equipment.<br />
Data Processing Equipment. This comprises fundamentally two groups: e-<br />
lectronic calculators and peripherical comnutation equipment. The first group<br />
cornprises conventional and programmable calculators, which have been used<br />
preferentialy in the computation <strong>of</strong> streamflow measurements, hydrograms and
discharge rating curves. The second group includes mai<strong>nl</strong>y card perforators<br />
for imput to conventional electronic computers. This equipment will be used as<br />
a base for the future data processing centers planned in the second stage <strong>of</strong> the<br />
Project.<br />
DESIGN AND CONSTRUCTION OF THE NETWORK<br />
The design <strong>of</strong> the climatological network was based upon the following crite<br />
ria:<br />
a. The first priority for the main mateorological stations was given to the irriplementation<br />
<strong>of</strong> the basic synoptic network, which had been planned before the<br />
Project. The remaining main stations were located in intermediate points,<br />
trying to obtain a relative uniform density and a good representation <strong>of</strong> the different<br />
climates <strong>of</strong> the area. Preference was given to installation in the main<br />
airports.<br />
b. When possible, an ordinary station was installed in each mayor agricultural<br />
area. In isolated valleys <strong>with</strong> characteristic microclimates, an effort was made<br />
to asign a station to each <strong>of</strong> them.<br />
c. To obtain the necessary interrelation between the hydrological and the me- teorological network, at least an ordinary st,ation was assigned to each mayor basin<br />
or sub-basin <strong>with</strong> co-ordinated operation <strong>of</strong> the meteorological and hydrdogical<br />
networks.<br />
d. in scarcely populated areas the main consideration was the availability <strong>of</strong><br />
observers.<br />
e. Finally, the availability <strong>of</strong> air, land or water access was a limiting factor<br />
in some jungle, mountainous or isolated areas. The pluviometric network was<br />
planned following the recommendations <strong>of</strong> the Guide for Hidrometeorological<br />
Practices <strong>of</strong> WO, <strong>with</strong> the limitations imposed iy the lack <strong>of</strong> observers and<br />
the inaccessibility <strong>of</strong> some regions. Regarding the design <strong>of</strong> the hydrological<br />
stations, these were located in the following places:<br />
i Near the mouth <strong>of</strong> the principal rivers and or their main tributaries. ii. in<br />
each main lake. iii. At the outlet <strong>of</strong> each main lake. iv. Where dams <strong>of</strong> major<br />
hydraulic works were planned. v. At the entrance <strong>of</strong> a river to a mayor<br />
valley.<br />
vi. At the crossing <strong>of</strong> a major river <strong>of</strong> an international boundary. in<br />
addition, some stations were located in urban and minor basins, based mai<strong>nl</strong>y<br />
on utility criteria or, in some cases, for use as representative basins. it<br />
was planned to make sediment measurements in part <strong>of</strong> the network mai<strong>nl</strong>y at<br />
the stations listed under i and iv. The complete plan was co-ordinated at a<br />
regional level and approved by the Regional Committees (3).<br />
The impact <strong>of</strong> the<br />
Project in the meteorological network coverage can be appreciated in Figure 5<br />
which shows the situation before and after <strong>of</strong> the Project. A similar compari-<br />
son has been made for the hydrological network in Figure 6.<br />
Sediment Measurements. (4) One <strong>of</strong> the subjects <strong>of</strong> main interest for the<br />
Project was measurement <strong>of</strong> the sediment loads <strong>of</strong> the rivers, since --<strong>with</strong> the<br />
exception <strong>of</strong> Costa Rica-- practically no information was available at the begin.<br />
ning <strong>of</strong> the Project.<br />
At present., systematic samplings are made in 136 <strong>of</strong> the<br />
gauging stations in the area. Samplings are made in accordance <strong>with</strong> the usual<br />
techniques and are later analized in the laboratories established in the six
countries to derive the sediment load. When access problems limit the number<br />
<strong>of</strong> measurements, some local observers take a point daily sample it was found<br />
that in most <strong>of</strong> the cases the concentration <strong>of</strong> this sample correlate well <strong>with</strong> the<br />
average <strong>of</strong> the compusite samples. The use <strong>of</strong> the sedbent rating curve, relating<br />
the solid discharge (G) <strong>with</strong> the liquid discharge (Q) has been used for completing<br />
the records. Figure 7 shows one typical sediment rating curve and<br />
Figure 8 summarizes some <strong>of</strong> the first results obtained by the project.<br />
The bed load is computed using several <strong>of</strong> the usual formulas, and several examples<br />
have been published in arder ta explain the procedure to the counterpart<br />
technicians (12). An interesting result concerning the sediment rating curve is<br />
that the coefficient <strong>of</strong> the equation G = A an, varies between 1.4 ad 4. O. The<br />
lower values <strong>of</strong> n (1.4 to 2. O) are associated <strong>with</strong> rivers crossing arid areas,<br />
and the .value <strong>of</strong> n in general increases as the rainfall also increases. A theory<br />
for explaining this has been developed by the project (20) and will be the object<br />
<strong>of</strong> further publications.<br />
'<br />
<strong>Water</strong> Quality. Although this objective was not originally though <strong>of</strong>, the<br />
Project has started a minimum programme <strong>of</strong> measurements <strong>of</strong> water quality.<br />
At present systematic samplings are made in o<strong>nl</strong>y 48 stations <strong>of</strong> Costa Rica,<br />
El Salvador and Guatemala, but it is expected that in the future this programme<br />
will be expanded.<br />
STUDIES AND APPLIED RESEARCH<br />
Most <strong>of</strong> the problems in hydrology and meteorology in Central America<br />
arise from the lack <strong>of</strong> appropriate information, therefore this subject falls<br />
directly in the main theme <strong>of</strong> this Seminar. Although in the area <strong>of</strong> the Project<br />
a few, very few, meteorological stations existed <strong>with</strong> information up to the begin<br />
ning <strong>of</strong> the century, this fact did not help much in the evaluation <strong>of</strong> water re-<br />
sources and much less for the feasibility studies.<br />
the Project provides the necessary coverage so in most <strong>of</strong> the cases the problem<br />
is now<strong>of</strong> "insufficient data" and not <strong>of</strong> complete "lack <strong>of</strong> Information1I. In Central<br />
America it is now possible to undertake the study <strong>of</strong> the potential resources <strong>of</strong> a<br />
basin or for estimating the maximum design flow, even considering that the<br />
stations giving an adequate coverage have o<strong>nl</strong>y two or three years record. With<br />
this information, a model <strong>of</strong> the weather responsible for the major floods can be<br />
prepared.<br />
model which CaA%e transposed in time to the most intensive storms, knowing<br />
o<strong>nl</strong>y data at a few rainfall stations and very iimited hydrological information; the<br />
maximum historical gauge levels par example. The above mentioned method is<br />
now being used for the design flood <strong>of</strong> a large hydroelectrical dam in southern<br />
Costa Rica, and will be published in a future report <strong>of</strong> the Project.<br />
wind, present weather, meteorological phenomena, temperature and humidit y<br />
obtained at two possible sites for the new airport for Tegucigalpa for short<br />
periods <strong>of</strong> observation, have established the need <strong>of</strong> further information for a<br />
meaninful decision. in this case the lack <strong>of</strong> information on cloud cover and vi-<br />
sibility made impossible a decision as in the previous case. Therefore, it can<br />
be seen that the problems <strong>of</strong> evaluation <strong>with</strong> insufficient data differ substantially<br />
from one case to another, and it is impossible to propose fixed solution methods.<br />
The first case shows how the action <strong>of</strong> the Central American Hydrometeorological<br />
Project has made possible the evaluation <strong>of</strong> water resources <strong>with</strong> insufficient in-<br />
formation by means <strong>of</strong> a closed and co-ordinated work between the meteorologist<br />
41<br />
The network established by<br />
Based in this weather model it is possible to develop an isohyetical<br />
Data on
42<br />
and the hydrologist. in the Symposium, it would be important to recognize this<br />
fact. Special enphasis has to be placed in the fact that in the area <strong>of</strong> evaluation<br />
<strong>of</strong> natural resources <strong>with</strong> limited information, the problems will be solved best<br />
wtth a close collaboration between hydrologists and meteorologists, since it is<br />
impossible to separate the aerial and terrestial phase <strong>of</strong> the hydrologic cycle.<br />
The lack <strong>of</strong> hydrological information can be compensated <strong>with</strong> meteorological<br />
information and viceversa. "Elastic relations" which allow to extrapolate the<br />
few observed data, based on some knowledge <strong>of</strong> the mechanics <strong>of</strong> the phenomena,<br />
should be used as far as possible. The fact that the hydrometric data are<br />
based on pluviometric information must not be forgotten, since it provides the<br />
most effective tool for the evaluation <strong>of</strong> water resources.<br />
The scope <strong>of</strong> this<br />
paper makes impossible to detail all the studies <strong>of</strong> the Project. A list <strong>of</strong> some<br />
<strong>of</strong> them <strong>of</strong> which most were published is the following: - Studies for determining<br />
water requirements for irrigation (5) (6) (7) (8). - Studies on run<strong>of</strong>f forecasting<br />
(9) (10). (Already being used for forecasting the operation <strong>of</strong> several reservoirs<br />
in the area). Effect <strong>of</strong> the eruptions <strong>of</strong> the Irazú Volcano on the sediment discharge<br />
<strong>of</strong> the Reventazón River (11) (12). - Sediment computations, specially<br />
bed load, for several projects.<br />
for several projects. -<br />
- Assistance for the computation <strong>of</strong> design flood<br />
Development <strong>of</strong> methods for estimating floods in the<br />
area. Figure 9 shows some flood envelopes for all the Central American area.<br />
Figure 1 O shows some rainfall envelopes for the area (1 3) (14). -Groundwater<br />
studies <strong>with</strong> the analog computer were made for the Project at El Salvador (1 5).<br />
- - <strong>Water</strong> balance studies (16) (17) (18). Figure 11 shows schematically the results<br />
<strong>of</strong> a preliminary study for all the Central American area. Effect <strong>of</strong> the<br />
temperature on the sediment load (19) Figure 12 summarizes the result <strong>of</strong> this<br />
study.<br />
STUDIES WITH INADEQUATE DATA<br />
The inadequacies <strong>of</strong> data arise from (i) incorrect data and (ii) short or insuf<br />
ficient records. Although coping <strong>with</strong> this is one <strong>of</strong> the tasks <strong>of</strong> the Second<br />
Phase <strong>of</strong> the Project, efforts for correcting and extending the available data have<br />
been made up to now. The Manual <strong>of</strong>Instructions <strong>of</strong> the Project (2) details the<br />
techniques suggested for this.<br />
Double mass curves are used for a first check <strong>of</strong> the quality <strong>of</strong> the data.<br />
When errors are found in the hydrological records they are generally due to incorrect<br />
extrapolation <strong>of</strong> the stage-discharge curve. Jn this case several methods<br />
for determining this curve are proposed, some based in hydraulic relations and<br />
other in the hydrological balance <strong>of</strong> the basis.<br />
The filling or extension <strong>of</strong> these records is made either using simple or mgl<br />
tiple corelation andfor estimating the run<strong>of</strong>f based in the meteorological data<br />
and basic characteristics.<br />
Up to now, the checking and extension <strong>of</strong> meteorological and hydrological<br />
records has been made following specific needs, but it is planned to undertake<br />
thin task in a co-ordinated and comprehensive form for all Central American<br />
Isthmus during the Second Pahse <strong>of</strong> the Project.<br />
DATA PROCESSING AND PUBLICATION<br />
One <strong>of</strong> the main Project activities has been to ensure the prompt and adequate
processing <strong>of</strong> the information. This has been achieved, both in meteorology and<br />
hydrology, by means <strong>of</strong> modern systems based in the use <strong>of</strong> electronic computers.<br />
Meteorology. The data collected at the stations are directly written in the<br />
computer entrance forms, except where, due to limitations <strong>of</strong> the observer, this<br />
has to be done in the central <strong>of</strong>fice <strong>of</strong> the meteorological services. The detail <strong>of</strong><br />
the forms and instructions for filling them are indicated in Publication No 84 <strong>of</strong><br />
the Project (20). The results <strong>of</strong> reading the graphs <strong>of</strong> the recording instruments<br />
are also filed on the form. At this stage, the adjustment <strong>of</strong> the graphs by cornpa<br />
rison <strong>with</strong> the direct reading instruments has to be made. Finally, before<br />
punching these data on IBM cards, the consistency <strong>of</strong> the data is checked. This<br />
system allowed the publication <strong>of</strong> the first meteorological yearbook (21) using<br />
services <strong>of</strong> a rented computer. In the future, this system will be changed for<br />
one that.wil1 requiere a minimum <strong>of</strong> services <strong>of</strong> commercial firms. Plans for<br />
mechanizing the reading <strong>of</strong> bands and for preparing some secondary processing<br />
are also being taken into account. Each country will prepare its part <strong>of</strong> the<br />
yearbook on uniform format, so that the preparation <strong>of</strong> a regional yearbook wili<br />
consist <strong>of</strong> joining the national parts o<strong>nl</strong>y.<br />
<strong>Hydrology</strong>. The action <strong>of</strong> the Project has allowed the standarization <strong>of</strong> data<br />
processing, following the usual recommendations in this kind <strong>of</strong> work Therefore<br />
it is now possible to ensure the reliability <strong>of</strong> most <strong>of</strong> the records that are<br />
published. At the same time the deficiencies <strong>of</strong> the previous data are now evident.<br />
Therefore, the revision <strong>of</strong> these old data constitutes a fundamental activity<br />
<strong>of</strong> the second phase <strong>of</strong> the Project. The Project has proposed a complete niechanized<br />
processing, as indicated in the instructions (2) (22), but for the lack <strong>of</strong><br />
computing facilities this objective could be achieved o<strong>nl</strong>y partially. In practice,<br />
the computation <strong>of</strong> stream gauging is made mechanically, either by means <strong>of</strong><br />
programmable calculators or by conventional computers. The use <strong>of</strong> small programmable<br />
calculâtors or mini-computers will be extended to the second phase<br />
<strong>of</strong> the Project. The translation <strong>of</strong> the graphs <strong>of</strong> the limnigraphs has been made<br />
up to now by manually, but the rest <strong>of</strong> the process from there on is more or less<br />
mechanized up to the tables for publication. Mechanization <strong>of</strong> all this process<br />
is contemplated in the second phase <strong>of</strong> the Pr'oject. The rest <strong>of</strong> the processes,<br />
i. e. : rating curves, sediment computations, duration curves, etc.. . , is made<br />
manually or <strong>with</strong> the use <strong>of</strong> the few programmable calculators provided up to<br />
date, but the trend is towards to a complete mechanizations <strong>of</strong> these computations.<br />
The Project has published four regional yearbooks (23). <strong>of</strong> which the last three<br />
have been prepared <strong>with</strong> the help <strong>of</strong> electronic computers. These publications<br />
have received excellent comments by the users <strong>of</strong> the information. The yearbooks<br />
contain in addition to streamflow records, lake levels, sediment discharges,<br />
water quality, duration curves and flood envelopes.<br />
OUTLOOKFORTHEFUTURE<br />
The impact <strong>of</strong> the Project on the meteorological and hydrological activities<br />
in the Central American Isthmus has been impressive not o<strong>nl</strong>y in the amount <strong>of</strong><br />
available information, but in the increase <strong>of</strong> the public concern <strong>with</strong> the importance<br />
*<br />
<strong>of</strong> these. The second phase <strong>of</strong> the project is aimed maidy to completing the<br />
institutional strenghtening necessary to ensure the continuity <strong>of</strong> the activities re -<br />
quired for providing the basic information needed for the social and economical<br />
43
44<br />
development <strong>of</strong> the Central American Isthmus. The Project will have at that<br />
time prepared the local Services for providing all necessary information for pr2<br />
ject design Where this information is insufficient, tools will be available for<br />
mbking a reasonable good estimate which will avoid delaying the implementation<br />
<strong>of</strong>, the Project. When the information is inexistent, criteria for obtaining a mini<br />
mum set <strong>of</strong> data will be well known to the local technicians. Finally, the mete2<br />
rological and hydrological services will be in a good position for influencing national<br />
polices on natural resources, ensuring a rational and efficient use <strong>of</strong> them.<br />
1.<br />
2.<br />
3.<br />
4.<br />
5.<br />
6.<br />
7.<br />
8.<br />
9.<br />
1 o.<br />
11.<br />
12.<br />
13.<br />
14.<br />
-<br />
REFERENCES<br />
PHCA. Manual de Instrucciones; Hidrometría, Publicación No 49<br />
PHCA. Manual de Instrucciones; Estaciones Meteorológicas, Publication<br />
No 70.<br />
-<br />
PHCA. Programa Regional de Instalaciones; Publication No 20<br />
- PHCA. Medida de<br />
Publication N"79.<br />
Sedimento s en Algunos Ríos del Istmo Centroamericano<br />
PHCA. El cálculo de los requerimientos de agua en Costa Rica.<br />
tion No 39.<br />
Publica-<br />
Hargreaves, G. Requerimientos de Irrigación y Balance de Agua; Proyec-<br />
to propuesto Arenal, Costa Rica, Publication No 87 del PHCA.<br />
Hargreaves, G. Necesidades y Requerimientos para Irrigación; Comayagua<br />
y Vecindades, Hondruas. Publication No 86 del PHCA.<br />
Hargreaves, G. Deficiencias de Agua en Centroamérica y Panamá. Publication<br />
No 88 del PHCA.<br />
- PHCA. Previsiones de Escorrentía. Publication N"46.<br />
PHCA. Pronósticos Hidrológicos para la Operación de Plantas Hidroeléctr-<br />
'=&tas del Seminario de Managua) Publication N091.<br />
Basso, E. Sediment measurements in several rivers <strong>of</strong> the Central Ameri-<br />
can Isthmus. Fall meeting <strong>of</strong> the American Geophysical Unnion, San Fran-<br />
cisco 1971.<br />
- Se dimento en algunos rfos del istmo Centroamericano,<br />
PHCA. Medidas de<br />
Publication No 79.<br />
Basso, E. Some Methods for Estimation <strong>of</strong> Floods <strong>with</strong> Limited Information<br />
in One Tropical Area. Second international <strong>Hydrology</strong> Symposium Fort<br />
Collins, Colorado 1972.<br />
-<br />
PHCA. Envolvente de Precipitaciones en el Istmo Centroamericano, Publication<br />
No 81.
15. PHCA. Factibilidad del Riego con pozos en el Proyecto Usulután<br />
dor, Publication No 25.<br />
16. PHCA. Estimación Preliminar del Balance de Aguas en el Istmo Centroa-<br />
mericano; Publication No 18.<br />
45<br />
El Salva<br />
17. Alghren, L. ; Basso, E; Jovel R. Preliminary Evaluation <strong>of</strong> the <strong>Water</strong><br />
Balance in the Central American Isthmus. Symposium on the <strong>Water</strong> Balance<br />
in North America; Banff 1970.<br />
18. PHCA. Estimación preliminar gel Balance de Agdas del Lago de Managua.<br />
Publication No 7 5.<br />
19. PHCA. Efecto de la Temperatura en el Transporte de Sedimentos. Publi-<br />
cation No 6 1.<br />
20. PHCA. Curva de Descarga de Sedimentos. Publication No 8.
46<br />
Figure 1<br />
Main Met e or olog ica 1 Stat i on.
Figure 2<br />
O r dina ry Meteor olog ical Sta tion.<br />
A_....<br />
47
48<br />
Figure 3<br />
Typical Hydrometric Installation.
Figure 4<br />
Prefabricated Cableway Tower.<br />
49
50<br />
Figure 5<br />
Meteorological coverage, before and after<br />
the Project.
Figure 6<br />
Hydrological coverage after the PFoject.<br />
51
52<br />
Figure 7<br />
Sediment rating curve.
AVERAGE ANNUAL PREC/P/TAT/ON MM<br />
Figure 8<br />
Results <strong>of</strong> the Sediment measurements<br />
53
54<br />
Figure 9<br />
Flood Envelopes.
Figure 10<br />
Maximum Rainfall Envelopes.<br />
55
56<br />
Figure 11<br />
<strong>Water</strong> Balance in Central America
StZE OF PARTlCLES MM<br />
Figure 12<br />
Effect <strong>of</strong> Temperature in sediment transportation.<br />
57
ABS TRACT<br />
METHODOLOGY EXISTING FOR ESTIMATING<br />
FREE SURFACE WATER EVAPORATION<br />
by<br />
Francisco Cubas Granado<br />
The purpose <strong>of</strong> this paper is to recount the metodology<br />
for estimating free surface water evaporation and particulary<br />
in the case <strong>of</strong> a reservoir when studing the regulation curves<br />
thece<strong>of</strong> or the regulation-exploitation system, for estatistics<br />
and empirical methods.<br />
RESUMEN<br />
El objetivo de este artículo es recopilar los distintos<br />
métodos para estimar la evaporación en lámina libre y particu-<br />
larmente en el caso de un embalse en función de la regulación<br />
que efectue y del sistema regulación-explotación utilizando m5<br />
todos empíricos y estadlsticos.
60<br />
Al1 water returning to the atmospherd due solely to evaporation<br />
procosoen is an important element in the hydrologic cyole. Moreover,<br />
it io a limitin;? factor for the effecient utilisation o9 free surface<br />
mtor (reservoira, lnken, rivers, etc.).<br />
In vie# <strong>of</strong> its big influonce in the water cycle, wvapqration has<br />
beon the subject <strong>of</strong> innumerable surveys which, because <strong>of</strong> the diversity<br />
<strong>of</strong> sndc pursued in enmh one there<strong>of</strong>, have not given rise to R homopmaour<br />
theory that could be accepted unanirnoualy.<br />
pronent papar io to recount the methoùology exinting for estimating<br />
I'rso rJurfaoo MttCr evaporo.tion.<br />
The sole purpose <strong>of</strong> this<br />
l~nrticularly in the oose <strong>of</strong> a reßervoir,<br />
vhen studgin,? the re$Tlation curve8 there<strong>of</strong> or the re~lation-exploitation<br />
riyntern, formulan are required which nay enable the mapomtion ocourring<br />
to be cotimnted ox evaluated when it occurs on J. large sc¿ile or must<br />
lie taken into account for r.orkinL; out these calculations.<br />
oithcr empirical or on n phgBica.1 basis, may <strong>of</strong>ten mitipte the lack <strong>of</strong><br />
"in nitu" data.<br />
1.2. %ctoro affectinp: the atmomhere's evaporating Dower<br />
Suah formulas,<br />
The a.tmoephore's evaporating power in tho avapoxation rate, ex-<br />
prossed in millimetres <strong>of</strong> water, for tho period determined (mm. <strong>of</strong><br />
uistor per day, for example).<br />
The atmoaphere'o evaporating povier faotors are: the hypometrio<br />
deficit, temperaature <strong>of</strong> the water, temepraturo <strong>of</strong> the air, insolation,<br />
fiperd and turbulence <strong>of</strong> the wind, barornotrio pressure, the quality Of<br />
Lhc irntar and u1ti tude.<br />
In fact, moct <strong>of</strong> these po.ra,metere are corelatecl to each other and<br />
th@ nractica.1 formulae used Tor eva.luntinf: evaporation gfily use8 those<br />
:mmmnotera which ame the moot important or easiest to measure.<br />
1.3. b'actorr, afrectinn wa.-aorcr.tion <strong>of</strong> Tree viater surfacea.<br />
¡?ret? wa.tc,r r:iirfn.cr rv&porntion, ,Tiven that th'e atmosphere's<br />
~wl)n~*it~tj.n,~~ :>oi:e:r ir: cox:t:.i.nt, dencnds on ita ri.rea..l+and dapth. The I?I~.SS
OF imter acto as P. regqlator so that if it is not R large area and<br />
in aliallow, t!ir ternpcrn.tnre <strong>of</strong> thp whole eanilg follovrs the law <strong>of</strong><br />
thermal variation as np1)lied to itr, surfo.ce.<br />
Iprne imter nurfri.ce evaporation in all the less in hot seaaona m a<br />
pentrr in cold venther, the bi,:ger in area and in 'depth the water<br />
napne ie.<br />
It can bo considered that, ba.nically, free surface water evaporation<br />
dc:)enda<br />
-<br />
on:<br />
'ih enorgy availabla from uo1n.r rr.diation.<br />
- The perceptible heat traiiomitted throunh the air.<br />
- 'l'ho airari cnpncity to trianoport imter vapour.<br />
Tlir diff~rent methods propozcd for estimating waporation may be<br />
poiipod into tiro ccitr:;orieo:<br />
EL) Empirioal methods giving rise to Yormulae baaed, mostly, on<br />
BEI lton,a law <strong>with</strong> modi í.'icationo to Che fmtors affeating evaporntion.<br />
b) VathodB <strong>with</strong> n rational basis <strong>of</strong> physicaï theories that may ha<br />
aummrd up ant<br />
- Ilcthotln baned on vater evaluation, consisting in performing<br />
EL water input and output LaLance <strong>with</strong> evaporation being<br />
calculated as an unknown in the balnnoe equation.<br />
- ilethocin harad on the ev<strong>nl</strong>uation <strong>of</strong> energy where the b<strong>nl</strong>ence<br />
mnde io a,n energy enterinc and leaving brzlanoe. The cslculation<br />
<strong>of</strong> evaporation io aimilar to the foregoing g~oup.<br />
- Methodo bnaad on the rnnßri trnnuaort theory vihere cvaporation<br />
in evaluated from the wind cpeed and the vapour preoouro<br />
61<br />
,ymdient between lhe surface i!ntPr and the supwinounbent<br />
lnyerc <strong>of</strong> air.<br />
The irater or cner.3 bo.l:i.nce methods are theoretically suitable for u88<br />
in cn1culntin:y evaporation in 1a.k~~ and reservoirs. Nevertheless, it is
62<br />
difficult to a.p<strong>nl</strong>y tham in prnotice because <strong>of</strong> the error committed<br />
in msaaurin(: some terms in the balance.<br />
Nore rocent renenrch hno drmonstratod that over relatively long<br />
prriodo, >t Icaat one month, the potential ovapo-transp'iration is<br />
conota,nt Pnd o<strong>nl</strong>y depends on climatic factors. This has led the<br />
researchers to Geek empiric formulae depending on these factors.<br />
In pmrcr!.l, empiric rorm<strong>nl</strong>ae Iinvc. been nought after by oo-relating<br />
eva n o r-, t i on wit li t ti e Po 1 lowi n,n met oo ro logica 1 fa0 t c w i<br />
-<br />
The temperature <strong>of</strong> tho air<br />
Incident SOIR.T ro.dia,tion<br />
- Air humidity<br />
- A combination <strong>of</strong> tho foresing<br />
Howover, many <strong>of</strong> these îormulno hnvo to be checked in practice<br />
b(?îore using them on uurfnces or areas which are not thoee where<br />
they were first obtained. Their contrast is obtained by oelibrating them<br />
by actual measurements <strong>of</strong> evapora.tion on the basis <strong>of</strong> ihatruments al-<br />
ren4dy exintin,? (rafte, tanice, evmorimeters, ato.). Xn fact, the o<strong>nl</strong>y<br />
prccodure fox direot meanurement <strong>of</strong> evaporation lies in solving a water<br />
bn lance.<br />
Let uö romnmber that:<br />
. The hycrornetric deficit or atmosphere saturation deficit,<br />
obtained ao n difference between saturating vapour tenaioh Fe lo the<br />
irater nurfme tompera,turr T and the actual vapour tension pa in the<br />
ri.mbisnt air, ir, the main ;,pa.rameter <strong>of</strong> the atmoophere avnpomting QOWBF.<br />
- 'The hyqrometric condition or r3eiFee E <strong>of</strong> thc air<br />
rcTrm5.n:: to tho viater nurfoce temperature T is the quotient betmen the
the tencione 1%. 8.nd Pe ( f.<br />
= Fan/fe) and represents the relative<br />
humidity or -tha air.<br />
- The psiahrnmetric diffarence, obta.ined an a difference<br />
b
64<br />
it in not p017::ii~i.e to expect a,nythin!y rno:t*e Lhm an a.pproririo,tioii froin<br />
this typo OP rrtimnte, a.ü IJC? have u.lreedy mid.<br />
The rooults obta.ir.eci in the evapora.tion tanka must be multiplied<br />
by tho trin!c coefficient, which will be peculiar to ench type, in order<br />
to oritir!ia.-tc! the actual evawration.<br />
ïri addition, the pa.rn.meter va.luec wc h3.w to consider are those<br />
exia Lin:: in the air-water surface intoqhase which<br />
to rdiwniire wit1 iro Iin,vo to observo them at the inost ncceosibla points where<br />
i.1; il: niipponcd that their values Co-rrlíite well <strong>with</strong> those which would<br />
h:i.vr beon obt:iiiiccl in tho micl intarphase.<br />
2.3.1.-n0s forrnula<br />
are generally impoccible<br />
In 1802, I):i.lton deduced that , just likc! other parameters, evaporation<br />
on a. free mter surface is proportioria.1 to the hygrometric deficit.<br />
hi2 cvo.por:i t ion forrnula:<br />
E = (Pc? - Fa) = o( (Fe - Fa.), depending on the hygrometric<br />
or, what ir: tho ao.rne8<br />
II<br />
deficit<br />
= d :pe (i-€), drprndin,y on tho saturatinC;<br />
vapour t enci i on and hjr$romet ri c<br />
de I;r ea,<br />
IIence,
In thc Pirat expression <strong>of</strong> Uaiton’s forinuls, II represents the total<br />
:)resnurc! (,pm plus water vapour) above the evaporatine ourface. H’s<br />
i<strong>nl</strong>.‘lirence o<strong>nl</strong>y intervenes ac a corrective term in evaporation problem0<br />
riml m;ry br tiiccanxlsd in R. rirst approximation.<br />
‘i’hc cocPPioicnt 4 in cha.racteri::tic <strong>of</strong> the meterological station under<br />
o o iin i rl erat i on.<br />
‘J!hi:i formula civon very vRria.ble evo.poration valuos Prom one plme to<br />
i’i.notJior, uhioh limite iti; une.<br />
in irhiolri:<br />
- i3 i: the water evaporated in o. month <strong>of</strong> n days.<br />
- Po (in mrn. <strong>of</strong> r.lg.) ir: tho nvera,p saturz,tin,s water vapour<br />
tension nt temnoraturs T. This in obtained from hygrometric<br />
tnbles.<br />
- Fn. (in min. <strong>of</strong> JIg) in the actual a.verage monthly water vapour<br />
ttrnoion <strong>of</strong>‘ tho fiar nt the tima <strong>of</strong> tho T readings. Thin ia<br />
obtained by multiplying Fe by the hypometrio deGree.<br />
- I3 (in min. o.€ !!go) in the Lx1,roniotric axerage monthly pressure.<br />
- T (in QG) ia the a,vora.ge monthly tomporature.<br />
65
66<br />
vhore:<br />
- E (in mrn.) io tho evn7oration in 24 houm.<br />
- U, the :i.riiìnesn. 'Phi:: is calculated by tha equation D=lO@-humidity<br />
at u ntmocphereo.<br />
- V (in miles/hour) io the :i,vera,ye wincl opeed over 24 hours.<br />
- 'I' (in QB), .the ::.vcrnp temperature over 24 hours.<br />
3) Tiorton's eqiiation:<br />
i - p + r Y - i<br />
W-h<br />
<strong>with</strong> P i o for n inrater ahcet irith 2. crflall ßurfaoe.<br />
4) Rohwer' a equation:<br />
E=O.7'(1 (1./16s-0.01:36 n1.Y. (Fda)
D = averaee barometric pressure.<br />
C numerioal coefficient<br />
1% = prenent vapour pressure<br />
Be sotimating vapour pressure<br />
h m lblative humidity <strong>of</strong> tho air<br />
P = fraction <strong>of</strong> time during which the wind is turbulent.<br />
t = nurnber cf days.<br />
Ta = average tempwature cf the air<br />
Tw = average temporature <strong>of</strong> surfaoe water.<br />
N P monthly wind speed average<br />
'y wind factor,<br />
&3.6. ûbnarvation<br />
The dií'ïiculty in applying these formulae lies in that the<br />
mnjoiity <strong>of</strong> the vnrisbles appear as nn average vsluo and it is possible<br />
io2 their valueci not to represent their total VQlUe well.<br />
'1.1. Critime on the mothods<br />
Tho methods based on the enerm balance enter more into the<br />
field <strong>of</strong> research than in that <strong>of</strong> praoti-1 usage.<br />
contrant or chock purposes.<br />
or tima which are nufficiently long.<br />
67<br />
Yhey can be usied for<br />
They can give evaporation Values over periods<br />
Tho methodo based on the water balonce or OR ,th0 mass twnspcrt<br />
ihoory 1i.m likawins mur@ suitable for uoinc 81 ohecke than fa2 graatioal<br />
utla~a. ThePie are, however, more recomendable for invsetigating svapomticn<br />
over ohort periorln <strong>of</strong> timo ( a few hours).<br />
'Pheee nothaaa also always hitve to be chaoked &na contrasted, as<br />
hnppene <strong>with</strong> tho ampirio mothods, on the basis <strong>of</strong> direot eveporntion mean-<br />
iiromonto, bccnuee <strong>with</strong>out these contTaStB and the modifications resulting<br />
thor<strong>of</strong>rom, oounte-active resulto may be given.
68<br />
In view oi the faet thRt in the imter or energy balance<br />
rn(>thods it is difficult to measure the terms appearing for evaporation<br />
ctiidy on free inter eurfaccs, the use <strong>of</strong> methods based on the mass<br />
transport theory is more otxongly recomnendad.<br />
3.2. :mos trmmort methods<br />
In masE tmnsport methods, the value <strong>of</strong> evaporation is entimated<br />
ïroin the wind opeod aiid the vapour pressure ,?radient between the surface<br />
water cind the laysra <strong>of</strong> air, bu wing a formula <strong>of</strong> the typez<br />
R = ri fl (u) f 2 (ao - 1%)<br />
iilioro II ir. the pronortionality constant commo<strong>nl</strong>y known as the 'ImaSB<br />
tmmiport coePí'iciontlt, 21 and f2 nre knovm functions <strong>of</strong> the wind apeed<br />
anti vapour prop nure {yadi snt res? cct ively.<br />
The í'o.re{:oin,y formu1t-c ir: rrritten, in its more uma1 forrnt<br />
iihioh enn.bleii E to be calculnted if i:e know the value <strong>of</strong> H beforehand.<br />
3.7.1. Cp.lcula.tin,s !I<br />
N'E: value in obtained in two waynr<br />
1) Dy catirnntiny: the evaporation by other methods and dividing<br />
i I; by ths product U.(Fe-Fa)<br />
2) Dy obtaining n linear c.clyreocion arqmtion betwnn the chango<br />
[)I' tlio r:tnto OP the wa.tcrl\lI md. thr product U(l%-%), in the following<br />
i.!ayg<br />
A 11 fl.IT. (F'c?-~) 5 C<br />
iiherr bhc coii:;to,rit C giver. the avcrn,Te loss from filtration in the free<br />
1I:l:LPr ::iii..l'n.cc.
69<br />
Thr ficrr t pro.-,edure for i”ind,inf; the mass transport coefficient<br />
mtriiirec n. qrncise water balance crhich forces exact measuring o€ the input<br />
and output or the surface wa.t,or unùer study to be ca,rried out.<br />
not; bc prn.ctica.l in till CRDBB.<br />
This may<br />
The nocond. procedure in cntisfmtory if the losses not due to<br />
rva.pora,tion do not vary to any ,great extent or are not the most part <strong>of</strong><br />
tho mtnr loet from thc surface in question.<br />
It ia interesting to look into the aeroAynarnic formula, here,<br />
that cnnbloo T7 to bc calouliited RB n function <strong>of</strong> the shape (perimeter) and<br />
six0 (nroa) <strong>of</strong> the free irater nurface, i+moncFt other variables.<br />
3.%.2. The rnntooroloaia<strong>nl</strong> .station rrcruirod Eor viorking out the<br />
a ero dynnmi c met hod<br />
The fo11owin:y rnateriii.1 iu necesnsry for the typical station:<br />
- A Ch:::: A raft on the edge <strong>of</strong> the water surface.<br />
- ‘l‘wo CUD type wind Buceo<br />
- %io limnigrnphs<br />
- A water tempersture recordar.<br />
- A hy,irothermograph and a pyrmometro.<br />
- Several plqvioTra.phs cet out all around the perimeter <strong>of</strong> the<br />
ourfnco in question.<br />
J.?. 3. kiorkinrt out the evanore,tion esuation<br />
Ilvnpomtion ia, <strong>with</strong> rajytrd to i’aorkinc out the formula mentioned<br />
in 3.2.1., ri. diffunion proceso in which the water vapour is transported<br />
froin the tinter nurface to thn Fi.tmocnherc.<br />
Vrrtichl trn.nni)orta.tlon <strong>of</strong> tho vo.nour depends on thn effective-<br />
naon <strong>of</strong> the tur.hiilent mixture in the lor:er layers <strong>of</strong> air, r.nd the main<br />
i<strong>nl</strong>.‘liisnce tharcin in tho wind npcred and ro1ir;hnaon OP the surfa.ce. A turb<br />
ii1an.t coefficinnt ban be found which varies rrith the vind cpeeù Por each
70<br />
tlotcrininotl niirfnco, ir1 thc caso whcrrby the narodynarnio characteristics <strong>of</strong><br />
tlic 1::tter romain conntant.<br />
The tramsport <strong>of</strong> the vapour takes place under the vapour<br />
~)recsure {:radient cet up between thc vapour saturation pressure' at the<br />
curlno
) It iu accci>tcri thnt the laminar sublnyer ia <strong>of</strong> a negligible<br />
thicknsnn nntl thnt tho turbulent boundary layer extondB below the<br />
wrfaca water.<br />
c) The riincl cpeed pr<strong>of</strong>ile is given by the law:<br />
m<br />
u(z) = aZ<br />
tihere t h conntc?.nto 2 and fi depend on the etability nnd roghness <strong>of</strong> the<br />
: : iirf ace.<br />
Combini'iig the equations given for E ana T, we havez<br />
From $ho wind pr<strong>of</strong>ile i: found:<br />
irliioh a.lloi~n us to irrite:<br />
m-1<br />
dz. E. z<br />
Integrating for<br />
E = <<br />
u2<br />
Throou,yh a,nalap;y trith the fluid flow through & unifom tube,<br />
it c m be shotrn thnt:<br />
(2m+l) (di)<br />
O,:! Q.2 0.4, 1,8<br />
U<br />
<strong>nl</strong>iich civer: rice to tho followinc expreesion for E:<br />
71
72<br />
where: - -<br />
Tho a.vern.go speed value U is equa.1 to the product<br />
(K2. IJ2)<br />
- K1 and 1 2 aro numerical constants.<br />
- V ic the kinetic viscosity.<br />
- e,<br />
X in riven by X <strong>with</strong> A and P being the area and the<br />
perimeter <strong>of</strong> the surface under study.<br />
139 expresein,y the aaecific humidities as a function <strong>of</strong> the<br />
vapour t en0 iam, the evnpora.tion equation becomes t<br />
if 6 is tho thickncco <strong>of</strong> the turbulent layer, it is easy to show that:<br />
and thon:<br />
ii,o-rotlyrinmic rnet hod.<br />
Kl=m+l;K2= 1 .<br />
m 4 3<br />
Tho ciluationn (1) ; ml (7’) aro the formuin proposed by thio<br />
In order to facililate the calculation <strong>of</strong> evaporation in small<br />
. ux’hcrs, lhe Col loiri<strong>nl</strong>: hypoihcocs can Uc rnnde:
3.2.5. Conclusiono<br />
a) Give the wind pr<strong>of</strong>ilo exponent the valus<br />
1<br />
m=s<br />
b) Take a, value <strong>of</strong> 6 metren a6 the thickness <strong>of</strong> the turbulent<br />
boundary layerr<br />
Thon, tho mass tranoport coeffioient ie given by2<br />
-4 p<br />
N = (2.62 x 10 ) (A)<br />
o1 2<br />
Thena fortnulno ara vary useful when, st al1 times, tho area<br />
nnd perimeter <strong>of</strong> the \ranter surface under survey are known. They are very<br />
important, then, for applying to tho study <strong>of</strong> the evaporation change that<br />
would OCOUT in n re~ervoir in every situation there<strong>of</strong>.<br />
In order to oalculate the value <strong>of</strong> N, th4 values for U, Fe and Fa<br />
obtained at R meteorological station near the zone under survey can be<br />
UCoa.<br />
The inclusion <strong>of</strong> the perimeter and area in the formula for<br />
c<strong>nl</strong>cutnting I compenses the variability OS this mass transport co<strong>of</strong>fioient.<br />
The application <strong>of</strong> this formula to very irregular ehapad water<br />
ririrfiloao may lead to an excaesiva ca.lculation <strong>of</strong> evaporation because <strong>of</strong><br />
the effect <strong>of</strong> tho perimeter in the formula. In such caees, to mitigate<br />
.thio exoesn, we c ~ maker n<br />
u. Thort hw&t WIo3 t zmanOo formula<br />
‘Phis expraeoeo evaporation by<br />
(in inches/hour)<br />
73
74<br />
EJ h ere:<br />
- F1 ana B'2 are the vapour pressures (in inchee <strong>of</strong> Hg) at<br />
<strong>nl</strong>titudeo hl and hp.<br />
- U1 and U2 are the winü speeds (in m/h) at the said altitudes.<br />
- iri thc nvertrn,Te temperature (inop) <strong>of</strong> the air between altitudee<br />
hl n.nd h2<br />
3.4. PItnmnn's formula<br />
'Chio haCj tho expresoion:<br />
E I 0.4 (1 4 0.17 U) (Fe - Fa)<br />
whore E io civen in mm/day and the wind veloaity U, at 2 m. height, in<br />
mile5 per hour.
UT i3LIOGRAPlIY<br />
tl;dodon en uso y DU empleo para cdlculo de la eva,potranspira~idn~~,<br />
by Paustino Lonnno Cnrcfa.- February 1964.- Publication no. 23 <strong>of</strong> the<br />
C.E.11. OP tiio Xiriistry <strong>of</strong> Public Blorks.<br />
" L'hytl xo loei e d R 1 ' ingeni eur", by C. ii6rn6ni &$as. -Publishad by Eyro 1 l es.<br />
'llI:indbaok <strong>of</strong> applied i!:;ciro1.ogyW, by Van Te Chon.-Published by Elei.c-Graw Hill.<br />
"Netodos prdcticoo PRM. el estudio hidrologico completo de una cuenca",<br />
by R. fieran.- Published by the C.F.H. <strong>of</strong> the Ministry <strong>of</strong> Publio Works.<br />
75
ABSTRACT<br />
GEOHYDROLOGICAL STUDIES IN<br />
SMALL AREAS WITHOUT SYSTEMATIC DATA<br />
Emilio Custodio Gimenan<br />
Frequently are needed studies to pr<strong>of</strong>it ground water resources by<br />
means <strong>of</strong> wells or galleries in areas <strong>with</strong> non existing data on river<br />
and spring flows and on recharge, but in which injuries may be imposed<br />
on pre-existing water uses. One begins looking for available data in<br />
several kinds <strong>of</strong> files and inquiring local people. Moreover, the size<br />
<strong>of</strong> the existing water concessions and their specific use allows the<br />
appraisal <strong>of</strong> mean and base discharge. The pluviometry is obtained though<br />
the closest stations, and some corrections on judgement. The key problem<br />
is the effective ground water recharge calculation, beeing solved<br />
through the consideration <strong>of</strong> three independent points <strong>of</strong> view:<br />
1) modified hydrometeorological balance<br />
2) ground water flow calculation based on existing or estimated data<br />
3) salt balance, specially chloride, based on water - table chemical<br />
analysis and rain water composition<br />
Generally is possible to get coherent results. As an illustration,<br />
three cases are presented:<br />
a) Montroig Area (Tarragona). It is a coastal plain<br />
b) Riera de Carme Basin (Barcelona). It is a limestone formation<br />
c) Famara Massive (Lanzarote, Canary Islands). It is a basaltic<br />
formation in an arid clima<br />
Key words: scarce data, ground water, chemical balance, perameter<br />
estimation, subterranean flow, case histories.<br />
RESUMEN<br />
Con frecuencia deben realizarse estudios para aprovechamiento de -<br />
aguas subterráneas mediante pozos o galerías en zonas en las que exis-<br />
ten datos sobre caudales de ríos y fuentes, ni sobre la recarga, pero<br />
en las que se esperan afecciones a usos ya establecidos. Se procede a<br />
la búsqueda de los posibles datos en los archivos y al interrogatorio<br />
de los habitantes. Por otro lado la importancia de las concesiones --<br />
existentes y su destino permite apreciar los caudales y los caudales -<br />
de base. La pluviometría se interpola a partir de las estaciones más -<br />
próximas efectuando correciones estimativas. El problema clave es el -<br />
cálculo de la recarga eficaz a los acuíferos y se ataca bajo tres pun-<br />
tos de vista:<br />
1) balance hidrometeorológico modificado<br />
2) cálculo del flujo de agua subterránea a partir de datos disponibles<br />
o estimativos<br />
3) balance en sales, en especial en cloruros, a partir de los análisis<br />
del agua freática y de la composición del agua de lluvia.<br />
En general se obtienen resultados coherentes. A título de ilustración<br />
se comentan tres casos prácticos:<br />
1) área de Montroig (Tarragona). Es un llano costero<br />
b) cuenca de la Riera de Carme (Barcelona). Es un macizo calcareo<br />
c) macizo de Famara (Lanzarote, Islas Canarias). Es un macizo basálti-<br />
CO en clima arido.<br />
Palabras clave: datos escasos, agua subterránea, balance químico, esti<br />
mación de parámetros, flujo su,bterráneo, casos reales.<br />
9; Comisaria de Aguas del Pirineo Oriental y Curso Internacional de Hidrología<br />
Subterránea. Barcelona.
78<br />
1. INTRODUCTION -<br />
Frequently, geohydrological studies are made in small basins<br />
where problems <strong>of</strong> water use exist or are foreseen. To solve<br />
these problems, data is required which has not usually been<br />
compiled or taken down. Usually, there are o<strong>nl</strong>y a few<br />
pluviometers in the area, and are <strong>of</strong> dubious reliability; there<br />
are have no measurements <strong>of</strong> the water courses as they are small<br />
or ephernerous, and the springs or sources have not been<br />
controlled. On the contrary, the exploitations established may<br />
be <strong>of</strong> a the same order <strong>of</strong> magnitude <strong>of</strong> the total available water<br />
resources.<br />
It is not possible to give general working norms, since<br />
there is a very wide range <strong>of</strong> climatic, geological structural<br />
conditions etc. After setting out some general rules, three<br />
cases will consequently be discussed, showing notable differ-<br />
ences in conditions, discussing the form <strong>of</strong> operation and the<br />
guarantee <strong>of</strong> the estimations made.<br />
The main objectives <strong>of</strong> the work to be carried out may be<br />
summarized as follows:<br />
a) Knowledge <strong>of</strong> the groundwater flow pattern, including<br />
recharge, circulation and discharge. The identification<br />
<strong>of</strong> the main aquifers is one <strong>of</strong> the stages to be covered.<br />
b) Obtain a reasonable hydraulic balance, if possible<br />
coherent <strong>with</strong> the results <strong>of</strong> various independent<br />
estimation processes.<br />
c) Analysis <strong>of</strong> the existing and projected water up-taking<br />
ernphasing the possible interferences between them and<br />
<strong>with</strong> the water courses and springs, and also, if possible,<br />
obtaining the foreseen user's extraction programme.<br />
It is important to remember that one is obliged to cany ont<br />
these studies should be during certain months along or at the<br />
most <strong>with</strong>in a year; consequently the o<strong>nl</strong>y data available to<br />
compute the components <strong>of</strong> the mean hydrological cycle are<br />
those existing at the time. The hydrological data taken during<br />
the study are not mean values, but depend on the climatic<br />
conditions during the study and past actions, and they should<br />
consequently be corrected to obtain a mean or pre-established<br />
situation.<br />
One needs to solve the problem by various channels as<br />
independently as possible. In principle, they may be included<br />
in any <strong>of</strong> the following three large groups:<br />
a) Hydrometeorological methods.<br />
b) Geohydrochemical methods.<br />
c) Hydrodynamic methods.
Details <strong>of</strong> these methods will not be discussed in this<br />
paper as their general lines are well known. For further<br />
details, the reader may consult the two volume text:<br />
"Hidrologia Subterránea" coordinated by M. R. Llamas and E.<br />
Custodio, at present being printed by Ediciones Omega, Barce-<br />
lona.<br />
The investigation and special methods are expressly<br />
excluded, since this is not the right place to discuss them,<br />
but the studies to solve the real problems raised and which<br />
require a prompt answer and an order <strong>of</strong> magnitude <strong>of</strong> their<br />
confidence. More delicate works can later be set up to find<br />
or affirm the basic estimations and hypothesis.<br />
2.- DATA COMPILATION AND SYNTHESIS<br />
The data compilation and synthesis work is necessary in<br />
any hydrological study, but in small basins <strong>with</strong> insufficient<br />
data, it assumes peculiar features, since it is frequently<br />
necessary to test all possibilities in various aspects.<br />
First, it should be defined the sort <strong>of</strong> is necessary data,<br />
to later define the search places where data can be found and<br />
finally establish the methodology <strong>of</strong> compilation and elaboration.<br />
When discussing the three factors defined in the introduction,<br />
will be specified what data is necessary, if they already exist.<br />
The places where the data can be found vary from one country to<br />
another, and from one place to another and a list <strong>of</strong> them would<br />
prove very tedious. The <strong>of</strong>ficial centres <strong>of</strong>ficially in charge <strong>of</strong><br />
filing and compiling certain types <strong>of</strong> data, and their publications<br />
should be permanently in mind. The consultation and help <strong>of</strong> local<br />
experts may prove essential, and also the water-well companies;<br />
furthermore one should not forget the local people as well,<br />
<strong>with</strong>out whose collaboration many important aspects may pass<br />
unnoticed, and even essential data or also some time the main<br />
pr<strong>of</strong>ited sources and wells.<br />
Except perhaps for very little developed areas, <strong>with</strong> abundant<br />
water resources, the local people have a noticeable, <strong>of</strong>ten<br />
unconcious, knowledge <strong>of</strong> the local hydrology, <strong>of</strong> a qualitative<br />
nature, but which may be quantized and built up <strong>with</strong> adequate<br />
surveys. This method <strong>of</strong> obtaining data not o<strong>nl</strong>y saves a lot <strong>of</strong><br />
work and time, but perhaps is the o<strong>nl</strong>y way <strong>of</strong> obtaining historic<br />
knowledge and erroneous conclusions, by building a logical<br />
structure on not well foundes basis.<br />
A good knowledge <strong>of</strong> the local idiosyncrasy and people<br />
customs is needed for these tasks, and they should not be given to<br />
under-qualified people who raise suspicions and are not capable<br />
<strong>of</strong> handling, screening and correcting the information received.<br />
Generally speaking, the local inhabitants are not very<br />
willing in principle to reveal their knowledge, out <strong>of</strong> fear<br />
79
80<br />
it may prejudice them. The interviewer should be prepared<br />
to “waste time” in winning over their confidence and present<br />
the survey <strong>with</strong>out them noticing it, making notes discreetly.<br />
One should try to get the information to flow out on its<br />
own, just channelling it and loocking for the interesting<br />
details.<br />
It is generally difficult to pass judgement on the data<br />
obtained in this way and it requires a great critical sense,<br />
a good knowledge <strong>of</strong> the area and a continuous contrasting.<br />
The collaboration <strong>of</strong> the local inhabitants is most<br />
important in locating springs, bore-holes, wells, etc., and<br />
to establish the most important characteristics <strong>of</strong> them. On<br />
the other hand, the local corporations and Town Councils are<br />
usually important sources <strong>of</strong> information.<br />
3.- - OBTAINING THE OBJECTIVES<br />
To obtain the objectives listed in the introduction, it<br />
is frequently necessary to set up a general water balance in<br />
homogeneous part ia1 areas , bearing in mind the limitations<br />
and inevitable errors they contain. One should not o<strong>nl</strong>y see<br />
an equation between mean values in the word ”balance”, but<br />
also the possible variations in the different values<br />
intervening and their interconnection (SC). This is specially<br />
important when the ground-water reservoir capacities available<br />
are small in relation <strong>with</strong> the water volumes to be exploited<br />
annually, giving rise to accentuated seasonal effects.<br />
This raises the problem that in one <strong>of</strong> these small areas<br />
where data is scarce and not very reliable, an elaboration<br />
and definition is necessary, <strong>with</strong> a depth not common in the<br />
case <strong>of</strong> large basins.<br />
One <strong>of</strong> the greatest unknown factors is usually the<br />
infiltration and recharge to the aquifers , which should be<br />
estimated using the best methods available.<br />
4.- -- HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL METHODS<br />
The hydrometerological methods to establish water balance<br />
and define deep infiltration are the classical ones, except<br />
in arid or semi-arid areas, where a daily computation (10)<br />
must be made to avoid excessive errors in monthly data handling.<br />
(*) The autor is conscious <strong>of</strong> the limitations <strong>of</strong> the water<br />
balance but feels it is a very useful tool if the person<br />
handling it is aware <strong>of</strong> its restrictions and errors, and<br />
the variability <strong>of</strong> the involved magnitudes.
The pluviometry must be obtained through the usually<br />
scant stations available, which generally do not cover the<br />
mountainous parts where the pluviometry is usually greater<br />
than in the lowlands.<br />
A first measure is to correlate the different stations<br />
and complete the series, trying to obtain a definition <strong>of</strong><br />
areas <strong>with</strong> the same rainfall (quantity, distribution and<br />
intensity), making estimated altimetric and topographic<br />
corrections.<br />
Next, the graphs <strong>of</strong> accumulated deviations <strong>of</strong> the<br />
pluviometry should be drawn, and these will be the basis <strong>of</strong><br />
the study on the springs and water courses discharge and<br />
water-level in the wells. With these relations hips, the<br />
conditions observed during the study will be changed into<br />
mean conditions or those conditions <strong>of</strong> particular interest<br />
in order to ascertain extent the pluviometric variations<br />
influence the ground waters.<br />
When estimating the surface run<strong>of</strong>f, the knowledge <strong>of</strong><br />
the local people may provide interesting data helping the<br />
morphological appreciations made. Frequently, local people<br />
can tell the heights and frequences <strong>of</strong> water in the river<br />
beds under various circumstances, and thus draw an initial<br />
scheme <strong>of</strong> the system. When there are permanent waters is<br />
frequent the presence <strong>of</strong> manufacturing or irrigation<br />
installations which use them, and in this case they are usually<br />
dimensioned for the base discharge or some figure slightly<br />
higher. A knowledge <strong>of</strong> this discharge and the user's remarks<br />
are <strong>of</strong> great importance, as it permits the characteristics<br />
<strong>of</strong> the surface hydrology to be reconstructed approximately,<br />
based on one or various river flow measurement campaigns in<br />
selected points. The absence <strong>of</strong> noticeable surface uses by<br />
means <strong>of</strong> simple derivations, may be a clear sign <strong>of</strong> temporary<br />
discharges.<br />
Rarely are there homogeneous and well defined crops in<br />
these basins, and frequently there is forest, brush, bare<br />
rock areas and great slopes, and consequently the classic<br />
evapotranspiration estimations are not applicable. Added to<br />
this is the rare availability <strong>of</strong> the necessary meteorological<br />
data, excepting some thermometric station. Thorntwaite's<br />
method (9) may give an initial idea <strong>of</strong> the potential value.<br />
Successive balances based on an estimated field capacity,<br />
enable the real evapotranspiration to be calculated by<br />
difference. In low pluviosity areas, <strong>with</strong> a high evapotrans-<br />
piration capacity, the errors may be very important and a<br />
value <strong>of</strong> the infiltration plus surface run<strong>of</strong>f below 10 or 20<br />
per cent <strong>of</strong> the annual mean pluviometry, may o<strong>nl</strong>y give a mere<br />
indicative figure. In this case, other balance methods should<br />
be established.<br />
81
82<br />
5. GEOCHEMICAL METHODS<br />
In studies where there is insufficient data, the chernical<br />
characteristics <strong>of</strong> the ground water may be extremely useful,<br />
if they are correctly interpreted.0ne <strong>of</strong> the chief advantages<br />
<strong>of</strong> the geochemical methods lies in the low variability <strong>of</strong> the<br />
chemical composition <strong>of</strong> the ground waters, averaging the<br />
annual and seasonal variations, and in the low cost <strong>of</strong> an<br />
overall indicative analysis if there are sufficient points for<br />
the sampling. The interpretation however, is a delicate affair<br />
and should be made by an experienced person <strong>with</strong> sufficient<br />
knowledge <strong>of</strong> the local hydrogeology and geology.<br />
On the one hand, the geohydrochemical methods may help<br />
to establish the patern<strong>of</strong> the groundwater .flow, comparing the<br />
analysis <strong>of</strong> various points <strong>of</strong> water, using graphs (mai<strong>nl</strong>y<br />
those <strong>of</strong> logarithmic vertical columns or Schoeller's;<br />
triangular <strong>with</strong> three fields, or Piper's; and Stiff's modified<br />
polygonals) (8) and ionic indexes, helped if necessary by dis-<br />
persion diagrams (correlation between two chemical charac-<br />
teristics (8).<br />
From another point <strong>of</strong> view, the chemical composition <strong>of</strong><br />
the ground water may further information on the recharge. For<br />
this, it should be admitted that the aquifer does not notably<br />
modify the salt contents <strong>of</strong> the infiltered water. To remove<br />
the possible influence <strong>of</strong> solution and modifying phenomena<br />
such as ionic exchange, redox reaction aggressiveness to<br />
carbonates, precipitation etc., the chloride ion is taken as<br />
reference, which can o<strong>nl</strong>y be changed by an addition <strong>of</strong> a new<br />
chloride ion by the aquifer. In alluvial aquifers, limestone,<br />
dolomite, etc., no important additions are expected if for<br />
from the sea.<br />
In this case, all the chloride <strong>of</strong> the ground water would<br />
come from rain, and therefore we can state: (2) (4) (5) (8):<br />
(P - E) . Ca I . Cs<br />
Where:<br />
lr<br />
P annual mean pluviometry<br />
E = annual mean surface run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
I = annual mean deep infiltration<br />
Ca mean concentration in rain water chloride<br />
C, = concentration in ground water chloride<br />
It can be easily deduced that:<br />
I (F - E) cs
Some care is required when applying the method. One is<br />
that the activities on ground surface should not modify the<br />
chloride contribution. The method therefore has a dubious<br />
application in intensive crop areas <strong>with</strong> irrigation or in<br />
areas <strong>with</strong> disposal and infiltration <strong>of</strong> important amounts <strong>of</strong><br />
direc.t residual waters or though tippers, etc., and also in<br />
immediate coastal areas <strong>with</strong> direct sea influence.<br />
The Cs value may easily be obtained from the ground<br />
water analysis provided this is stable. If not, the method<br />
should not be applied. The value <strong>of</strong> Ca is not normally known,<br />
as it is rare to find systematic analysis <strong>of</strong> the rainwater;<br />
during the study some analysis <strong>of</strong> this rainwater may be made,<br />
but before taking a content as the mean value, various deter-<br />
minations must be compared, since this content varies each<br />
season according to the origin <strong>of</strong> the clouds and even <strong>with</strong>in<br />
a same rainfall. During initial estimation attempts, it may<br />
be considered that in areas several dozen km. away from the<br />
sea, the chloride content is generally less than 10 ppm, and<br />
that in areas some hundred kms from the sea, it is less than<br />
1 ppm (8).<br />
In areas near the coast, the variations and contents may<br />
be higher. Close to populated areas, in particular if these<br />
are industrial, high values may also occur.<br />
The soluble salts brought along by the infiltrated water,<br />
may not o<strong>nl</strong>y come from the rain, but also from the atmospheric<br />
dust and this is another reason for doubt. In principle, the<br />
rainwater collector units should also collect the atmospheric<br />
dust, but at a sufficient height to avoid the local particle<br />
movement at low level.<br />
Experience shows that the method is good in arid areas,<br />
where the rain concentration due to evaporation is high and<br />
the surface run<strong>of</strong>f is scarce. The result is more problematic<br />
in the more humid areas where the infiltration is an important<br />
fraction <strong>of</strong> the pluviometry and where the surface run<strong>of</strong>f is<br />
notable and errors in estimation greatly influence the P - E<br />
value. However, in these areas it is possible to apply the<br />
salt balance in order to separate the components <strong>of</strong> the<br />
hydrogram <strong>of</strong> a gauging station, if a sufficient chemical<br />
analysis series is available during a rainfall and the later<br />
period, but the author has no direct experience in such cases<br />
(12) (15).<br />
6. HYDRODYNAMIC METHODS<br />
The hydrodynamic methods try to determine the infiltration<br />
based on the hydraulic characteristics <strong>of</strong> the aquifer and the<br />
piezometric surface. The most correct way <strong>of</strong> making the balance<br />
is using a simulation model, but this is generally a detailed<br />
study phase and requires a notable amount <strong>of</strong> data (13).<br />
83
The methods given herein refer to simple situations <strong>with</strong>in<br />
the study area <strong>with</strong> a well defined piezometric surface and<br />
<strong>with</strong> a pattern and slope which scarcely varies throughout the<br />
year, so that an almost stationary situation can be imagined,<br />
<strong>with</strong> a well differentiated recharge and drainage area. The<br />
method means that the flow <strong>of</strong> water per unit <strong>of</strong> transversal<br />
width is equal to the mean recharge upwards. The application<br />
means having the mean transmissivity <strong>of</strong> the aquifer in the<br />
analysis area obtained by means <strong>of</strong> some pumping tests and<br />
bore-holes and that the piezometric surface has been observed<br />
in a sufficient number <strong>of</strong> points to precisely know the mean<br />
gradients. The estimation is a mere application <strong>of</strong> Darcy's law.<br />
q T. i.<br />
where q = discharge per unit width<br />
T = transmissivity<br />
i = piezometric gradient<br />
Darcy's law is generally valid in most normal circumstances.<br />
7. EXAMPLES<br />
To illustrate the above, three examples have been chosen,<br />
corresponding to studies in areas <strong>of</strong> less than 100 Km2, one in<br />
a semi-humid area, another in a semi-dry area and the other in<br />
a sub-desert climate. To better locate the data, the example<br />
has been broken down into multiple paragraphs:<br />
7.1 Montroig Area<br />
Location.- S.W. <strong>of</strong> Tarragona, in the Baix Camp (fig. 1)<br />
Physiographic characteristics.- Flat coastal strip, 4 km<br />
wide, bordered by the mountain range. The water divide line<br />
is 12 km from the sea (1) (3) (5).<br />
Geological characteristics.- Plain <strong>of</strong> detritic materials<br />
resting on clay formations. Mountain range materials are <strong>of</strong><br />
low permeability (1) (11).<br />
<strong>Water</strong> exploitation.- Traditional use for irrigation. Near<br />
the coast, pumping <strong>of</strong> 10 m3/year approximately, for supply <strong>of</strong><br />
the Vandellos Nuclear Station. New extractions for Tarragona<br />
are ready to start in a short time (3) (5).<br />
Basic problem.- Find out the resources and sea intrusion<br />
process when new well will start pumping.<br />
Existing data.- Scarce, reduced and partial hydro-<br />
meteorological data. Mean pluviometry 400-500 mm in the plain,<br />
higher in the mountain range (1). Almost non-existant hydrological<br />
data; there are no permanent water courses. The existing ones
are short-lived dry creeks. Contributions are estimated be<br />
means <strong>of</strong> local surveys. Almost non-existant hydrogeological data<br />
prior to the studies for the Vandellós Nuclear Station; later,<br />
values <strong>of</strong> the transmissivity <strong>of</strong> the piezometric gradients in a<br />
reduced area were available. The aquifers drain directly into<br />
the sea (1) (5) (11).<br />
Hydrometeorological balance.- Of dubious value owing to<br />
incertitude <strong>of</strong> data and low infiltration (2).<br />
Geohydrochemical balance.- Good application conditions in<br />
non-irrigable land areas. There is no direct data on the<br />
chloride content <strong>of</strong> the rain water, but this can be obtained<br />
by comparison <strong>with</strong> similar areas <strong>with</strong> data (2).<br />
Hydrodynamic balance.- Ideal conditions for application,<br />
but the interpretation <strong>of</strong> the pumping tests becomes complex (5).<br />
Results.- The mean recharge obtained by each <strong>of</strong> the three<br />
methods was as follows, in thousands <strong>of</strong> m3 per year, per km<br />
<strong>of</strong> coastline$: ( 2).<br />
a) Hydrometeorological method ....... 600<br />
b) Geohydrochemical method .......... 900<br />
c) Hydrodynamic method .............. 1.100<br />
Method a) foresees a progressive marine intrusion; method<br />
b) foresees a critical situation and method c) a certain<br />
residual flow to the sea, which would stabilize the salt water-<br />
fresh water interfacies in a new position.<br />
Check-ups.- Two lines <strong>of</strong> piezometers were installed to<br />
control the sea intrusion and three water table elevation<br />
recorders to control the levels were installed. After over<br />
three years exploitation, the interphase movement is more in<br />
accordance <strong>with</strong> result c) than <strong>with</strong> the other two. The<br />
hydrometeorological method is excessively pessimistic. The<br />
geohydrochemical method is acceptable in a first approximation,<br />
and the hydrodynamic method is the closest to reality (5).<br />
7.2. Riera de Carme Basin<br />
Location.- S. <strong>of</strong> the town <strong>of</strong> Igualada (Barcelona) (fig. 2).<br />
Physiographic characteristics.- It spreads over 100 km2<br />
betwen 250 and 900 m <strong>of</strong> altitude. The length <strong>of</strong> the small river<br />
is 25 km.<br />
Geological characteristics.- The materials are clay, silt<br />
and limestone Eocene formations, resting on clay and chalk <strong>of</strong><br />
the Keuper formation. The tectonic alteration is important.<br />
There are important travertine and calctuff formations (6).<br />
* In reality, a maximum and a minimum value was calculated.<br />
85
86<br />
<strong>Water</strong> exploitation.- The discharge <strong>of</strong> the Riera de Carme<br />
is notably regular. The main ground regulating reservoir are<br />
the alveoline limestones, discharging relatively important<br />
springs. The main spring discharges in Capellades, outside the<br />
basin. There is an intense industrial use.<br />
Basic problem.- Some wells have been chilled from which<br />
100 l/sec., are going to be pumped continuously. Find out<br />
whether it is possible to obtain this discharge in dry seasons<br />
and what type <strong>of</strong> injuries will be produced to springs and water<br />
courses. The tests have been made in an extraordinarily humid<br />
season, and it is therefore essential to obtain the probable<br />
situation under other conditions.<br />
Existing data.- Various peripherical pluviometric stations,<br />
and o<strong>nl</strong>y one interior one, at present out <strong>of</strong> service. Spacial<br />
distribution <strong>of</strong> the pluviometry relatively regular, around<br />
600 mm/year.<br />
The hydrological data is very scarce. With o<strong>nl</strong>y one gauging<br />
station operating since 3 years ago. The run<strong>of</strong>f characteristics<br />
have been reconstructed, based on a inventory, survey <strong>of</strong> the<br />
canals, seried gauging and comparison <strong>with</strong> other,basins. The<br />
normal basic discharge <strong>of</strong> the river is 400 l/sec., which should<br />
rise to 500 ì/sec., if the ground discharge to a nearby basin<br />
is considered. The hydrogeological data are almost non-existant,<br />
except a prolonged pumping test lasting for two months, and '<br />
various tests on bore-holes (6). Various springs have been<br />
regularly gauged and the data has been apparently satisfactorily<br />
completed, by means <strong>of</strong> local surveys on the field and in<br />
factories.<br />
Hydrometeorological balance.- Not very reliable since most<br />
<strong>of</strong> the basin has high slopes, <strong>with</strong> wood or brush, and <strong>with</strong><br />
sometimes very permeable materials.<br />
Geohydrochemical balance.-In the main springs area, ground<br />
water has 15 to 24 ppm in Cl-. The scarce rain water samples<br />
show chloride content betwen 5 and 10 ppm. The accuracy is<br />
very low. Direct surface run<strong>of</strong>f is not known <strong>with</strong> an adequate<br />
degree <strong>of</strong> confidence. Data is o<strong>nl</strong>y indicative. Possibly the<br />
chemical conditions for hydrogram components separation by<br />
means <strong>of</strong> salt balance discharges are optimum, but has not been<br />
made as the influence <strong>of</strong> the industrial discharges is not very<br />
well known. .<br />
Hydrodynamic balance.- The important variability <strong>of</strong><br />
transmissivity conditions, <strong>of</strong> the main fractured aquifer and<br />
its complex arrangement, make estimations difficult. The best<br />
way is by a study <strong>of</strong> discharge recession curves in selected<br />
points.<br />
Results.- Estimation <strong>of</strong> the total infiltration in millions<br />
<strong>of</strong> m3/year, including the groundwater discharge outside the<br />
basin (6):<br />
a) Hydrometeorological method ........ 10<br />
b) Geohydrochemical method ........... 18
c) Hydrodynamic method ........ ?<br />
d) Separation <strong>of</strong> hydrogram<br />
components ................. 15<br />
Check-ups.- No direct check-ups are made, but they will be<br />
obtained after completion <strong>of</strong> the study wiht the 2-month pumping<br />
test, and related observations.<br />
7.3. Famara M,assive<br />
Location.- N. <strong>of</strong> the Island <strong>of</strong> Lanzarote, Canary Islands<br />
(fig. -3).<br />
Physiographic characteristics.- Massive <strong>of</strong> over 600 m. in<br />
altitude, which forms a notable cliff over the W. coastline.<br />
Spreads over 80 km2. Very scanty vegetation, almost sub-desert<br />
climat e.<br />
Geological charact.eristics.- Tahular hsalts, <strong>of</strong> more than<br />
1.000 m. thickness, buried cinder cones, very continuous and very<br />
little permeable subhorizontal clay-like levels (almagre].<br />
<strong>Water</strong> exploitation.- Reserve area <strong>of</strong> ground waters for<br />
supplying the capital. Collections by means <strong>of</strong> galleries which<br />
penetrate deep into the massive, <strong>with</strong> horizontal drills and at<br />
present also some vertical ones, to increase the drainage. Discharge<br />
obtained 2 to 3 l/sec., at present temporarily increased to 20<br />
l/sec. (4)<br />
Basic problem.- Get to know the reserves <strong>of</strong> the massive and<br />
determine the exploitable discharges, their rate and recession<br />
curves, Assess the possible resources.<br />
Hydrometeorological data.- Sufficient rainfall network, except<br />
in the highest areas, where most <strong>of</strong> the low infiltration mus-t be<br />
produced. Compiling <strong>of</strong> data and detailed elaboration by the<br />
Hydrographic Study Centre In Madrid c"]. Mean rainfall below 200 &year.<br />
Hydrological data.- Absence <strong>of</strong> surface run<strong>of</strong>f except in<br />
strong storms. There are no direct available.<br />
Hydrogeological data.- Almost non-existent, except in the<br />
galleries where there is a data record and several deep exploration<br />
bore-holes. There are various small springs and oozes, <strong>of</strong> very<br />
fine or inappreciable discharge, inventoried by the Public Works<br />
Geological Service, and <strong>with</strong> some chemical analysis.<br />
Hydrometeorological balance.- Of dubious Worth, due to the<br />
highly arid climate and because many suppositions have had to be<br />
made. A daily balance calculates a mean infiltration <strong>of</strong> 3 mmLyear.<br />
There is possibly no recharge if the daily rainfall does not exceed<br />
20 to 40 mm., which o<strong>nl</strong>y occurs a few times in a period <strong>of</strong> several<br />
years.<br />
By reason <strong>of</strong> the Scientific Study <strong>of</strong> <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> <strong>of</strong> the Canary<br />
Islands, made by the General Board <strong>of</strong> Hydraulic Florks <strong>of</strong> the<br />
Spanish Government, and UNESCO.<br />
a7
88<br />
Hydrogeochemical balance.- Chloride content <strong>of</strong> the<br />
infiltration water obtained from the analysis <strong>of</strong> the small water<br />
oozes on the almagres at high altitude (around 300 to 700 ppm.)<br />
and surface wells in Haría (900 ppm). The water <strong>of</strong> the galleries<br />
is more salty possibly due to basalt contributions by the high<br />
holding time. There are no direct data on chloride content in the<br />
rainwater, but it can be estimated from the data <strong>of</strong> the island <strong>of</strong><br />
Gran Canaria (4).<br />
Hydrodynamic balance.- Made <strong>with</strong> precautions from the<br />
freatic surface obtained by a careful study <strong>of</strong> the data on the<br />
bore-holes and galleries, and the hydraulic characteristics <strong>of</strong><br />
the basalts obtained by various procedures (4). The hydraulic<br />
gradients at times exceed 10% per cent in a plane at O elevation.<br />
Results.- The rechar e obtained by each <strong>of</strong> the three<br />
methods in thousands <strong>of</strong> m 5 /year, are (4):<br />
- Mean<br />
Min.<br />
Max.<br />
-<br />
-<br />
Famara Heights (19 Km2) .... 225 28 5 190<br />
Famara Lows (28 Km2) .... 140 224 84<br />
Marginal plains (25 Km2) . . , 50 75 25<br />
Total (72 Km2) ,. .. 415 584 299<br />
In this case, the best method would appear to be the<br />
geohydrochemical one. There is no direct verification, but<br />
additional information is obtained by means <strong>of</strong> isotopes and<br />
ambient radioisotopes, apart from a study <strong>of</strong> the salinity <strong>of</strong> the<br />
soil and dust, in elaboration,<br />
Co'plementary,- Since the explotation is mai<strong>nl</strong>y <strong>of</strong><br />
reserves, it has been computed by hidrodynamic study methods <strong>of</strong><br />
the recession curves <strong>of</strong> the gallery discharges, that the water<br />
yield should vary between 0,03 and 0,05. This figures, jointly<br />
<strong>with</strong> the other data allow to estimate exploitable reserves in the<br />
gallery area, betwen 20 to 60 million m3, The overall transmissi-<br />
vity is 100 m'/day, <strong>with</strong> a thickness between 200 and 500 m.<br />
8. CONCLUSIONS<br />
In areas <strong>with</strong> small infiltration in relation to the<br />
pluviometry, the geohydrochemical method applied <strong>with</strong><br />
precautions, is a very useful tool which can improve the<br />
hydrometeorological balance method. In more humid areas, the<br />
results are not so clear. The hydrodynamic balance is the best<br />
method but in some cases it needs appropriate conditions for<br />
application, and in any case, it requires numerous reconnoisance<br />
tests to determine the hidrodynamic characteristics <strong>of</strong> the aquifer.<br />
9. REFERENCES
1. Custodio, E., Molist J., and Martin Arnaiz, M. (1968).<br />
First Report on the works for supply <strong>of</strong> the Vandellós<br />
Nuclear Station. Geoteclinics Geokgists Consultants.<br />
Barcelona.<br />
2. Custodio, E. (1969). Report on the present state <strong>of</strong><br />
the possibilities <strong>of</strong> the Montroig collections to- supply<br />
water to the Vandellós Nuclear Station (internal report).<br />
3. Custodio, E., Bayo, A., and Orti, F., (1971). Geological,<br />
Hydrogeological and geochemical characteristics <strong>of</strong> the<br />
coastal aquifers between Cambrils and L'Ametlla de Mar<br />
(Tarrag ona)i. -<br />
on Economic Geology, Madrid-Lisbon. Section 3. pp 1471170.<br />
4. Custodio, E., and Saénz de Oiza, J., (1972) Geohydrological<br />
study on the Famara Massive, Lanzarote. General Board <strong>of</strong><br />
Ilydraulic Works. Las Palmas - Barcelona. 2U4 pp.<br />
5,<br />
6.<br />
7.<br />
8.<br />
9.<br />
10.<br />
11.<br />
12.<br />
13.<br />
89<br />
Fi rs t Span i s h - Portuguese -Amer i can Congr es s<br />
Custodio, E., and others (1973). Final Report on the<br />
works to supply the Vandellós Nuclear Station. Geotechnics<br />
Geologist Consultants, Barcelona (being elaborated).<br />
Custodio, E., and others (1973). Geohydrological study <strong>of</strong><br />
the Carme Basin. Barcelona. East Pyrenees <strong>Water</strong> Board<br />
and Public Works Geological Service. Barcelona.<br />
Custodio, E. (1973). Hydraulics <strong>of</strong> water collections.<br />
Section 9 <strong>of</strong> Subterranean liydrology. Vol, 1.- Omega<br />
Editorial. Uarcelona (at printers).<br />
Custodio, E. (1973). Geo1iydrocliemistry.- Section 10 <strong>of</strong><br />
Sub terruiieanz liydrology , Vol, 2, - Omega Editorial, Barcelona<br />
(at printers),<br />
Martin Arnaiz, M. (1973). Components <strong>of</strong> the Hydrological<br />
Cycle, Section 6 <strong>of</strong> SUBterranean Iiydrology, Vol. 1.- Omega<br />
Editorial. Barcelona (at printers).<br />
Mero F. (1969). Approach to daily hydro-meteorological water<br />
balance computations for surface and groundwater basins.-<br />
Proceedings ITC - UNESCO Seminar on Integrated Surveys for<br />
River Basin Development.- Delft. pp 89/116.<br />
Orti , F. (1970). Notes on the hydrogeological prospecting<br />
made for supply <strong>of</strong> the Vandellós Nuclear Station (Tarragona)<br />
Geological Research Institute <strong>of</strong> the Provincial Delegation.<br />
Vol. XXIV, pp 75/88 Barcelona.<br />
Pinder, G.F. and Jones, J.F. (1909) Determination <strong>of</strong> the<br />
ground water component <strong>of</strong> peak discharge from the chemistry<br />
<strong>of</strong> total run<strong>of</strong>f.- <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Research, Vol 5. No 2<br />
April 1969 pp 438/445.<br />
Public Works Geological Service (1972). Basic Tiieory on<br />
analogical digital models <strong>of</strong> aquifers. (See especially<br />
chapter 5, Process <strong>of</strong> construction and use <strong>of</strong> a model<br />
by E. Custodio and L. Lopez-Garcia), Information and<br />
Studies, Bulletin No. 37 - Public Works Geological Service,<br />
Madrid, October 1972. 178 pp.
90<br />
14. VilarÓ, F., Custodio, E., aiid Bruington, A.E., (1970)<br />
Sea <strong>Water</strong> intrusion and water pollution in the Pirineo<br />
Oriental (Spain). ASCE National <strong>Water</strong> Kesources Engineering<br />
Meeting, Memphis, Tennesse. Meeting Preprint 112.<br />
15. Visocky, A.P. (1970). Estimating the groundwater con-<br />
tribution to storm run<strong>of</strong>f by the electrical Conductance<br />
method.- Ground water, Vo. 8. No. 2, March-April 1970.<br />
pp 5/10.
Fig.1 - Situdción del Area de Montroig<br />
Locat i on map <strong>of</strong> Fdontroi g Area<br />
91
92<br />
Fig. 2 - Sitiiacibri de la Cuenca del Carme<br />
Locat i on <strong>of</strong> Carme Has i n
Q Al cgranza<br />
93
METHODS OF ANALYSING DEFICIENT DISCHARGE DATA<br />
IN ARID AND SEMI-ARID ZONES FOR THE DESIGN OF SURFACE WATER UTILIZATION<br />
-____ ABSTRACT<br />
bY<br />
Joseph S. Dalinsky<br />
TAHAL - <strong>Water</strong> Planning for Israel Ltd., Tel Aviv, Israel<br />
Technion, Israel Institute <strong>of</strong> Technology, Haifa, Israel<br />
This paper surveys various methods <strong>of</strong> analysing stream flows:<br />
frequency <strong>of</strong> annual volumes, discharge-volume relationship <strong>with</strong><br />
horizontal, vertical and double hydrograph cutting, and calcula-<br />
tion <strong>of</strong> the storage volumes available as a function <strong>of</strong> reservoir<br />
capacity.<br />
Application <strong>of</strong> these methods, which have been successfully<br />
applied by Tahal-<strong>Water</strong> Planning for Israel Ltd. over the past '<br />
ten years, can generate data for the design <strong>of</strong> surface water<br />
utilization schemes when flow records are available for o<strong>nl</strong>y<br />
a few years.<br />
The understanding and application <strong>of</strong> the general design<br />
aspects, even if o<strong>nl</strong>y qualitative, enables the planning engineer<br />
to reduce his basic hydrological requirements to less than 10<br />
years duration.<br />
It is proposed that applied hydrological research be di<br />
rected towards evaluation <strong>of</strong> a number <strong>of</strong> important hydrologi-<br />
cal design parameters on a regional basis to enable nondimen-<br />
sional curves to be established.<br />
RESUME<br />
L'auteur examine différentes méthodes pour l'analyse du<br />
débit des riviére: fréquence des volumes annuels-relation entre<br />
ces volumes et les débits dérivés pour l'utilisation par tronca<br />
ture'des hydrogrammes, cette troncature pouvant etre verticale,<br />
horizontale, ou les deux à la fois- calcul des volumes stockés<br />
disponibles en fonction de la capacité du réservoir.<br />
Ces méthodes ont été utilisées avec SUCC~S par Tahal-<strong>Water</strong><br />
Planning, pour Israël Ltd, au cours des dix derni2res années.<br />
Leur application permet de fournir des donnérs pour l'aménagement<br />
des eaux, lorsqu'on ne dispose de données di'éculement que<br />
pour un'petit nombre d'années.<br />
Une mise en oeuvre intelligenye des aspects généraux d'un<br />
projet, même sous une forme purement qualitative, permet à l'i2<br />
génieur de planification de se contenter, pour les données hy-<br />
drologiques de base, de moins de 10 ans d'observation.<br />
L'auteur propose que la recherche hydrologique appliquée<br />
soit orientée vers l'estimation des parametres hydrologiques -<br />
important à la réalisation des projets. Une telle étude doit<br />
être menée sur une base régionale et déboucher sur l'établisse-<br />
ment d'abaques adimensionnels.
96<br />
INTRODUCTION<br />
The need for water in the arid and semi-arid zones is in most cases<br />
greater than the water resource potential, since there are generally<br />
large areas <strong>of</strong> good soils that cannot be cultivated as a result <strong>of</strong> the<br />
scarcity <strong>of</strong> water for irrigation.<br />
utilization is directed toward maximum exploitation <strong>of</strong> the lfmited re-<br />
sources at reasonable cost.<br />
Hence, the planning <strong>of</strong> surface water<br />
The annual yield <strong>of</strong> surface water resources varies considerably as<br />
a result <strong>of</strong> the extremely non-uniform climatic conditions that prevail in<br />
arid and semi-arid zones. In many cases, the available source cannot by<br />
itself provide an adequate supply and other solution& must be found,<br />
Possible solutioqs are as follows:<br />
(1) To recharge surface water to suitable groundwater aquifers which<br />
would serve as long-term reservoirs.<br />
will be the varying annual volumes <strong>of</strong> surface water, in addition<br />
to the natural replenishment, while the output will be an ap-<br />
proximately constant annual rate.<br />
In this case the input<br />
(2) In the case <strong>of</strong> supply from surface reservoirs fed from intercep-<br />
tion <strong>of</strong> stream flows, this source can be integrated <strong>with</strong> some<br />
other certain or steady but limited source. In this case, in<br />
years <strong>of</strong> adequate flow from the less reliable or variable<br />
source, the yield <strong>of</strong> the steady source is retained €or use in<br />
those years in which the yield <strong>of</strong> the variable source is in-<br />
adequate or non-existent.
In such cases, planning should be based on the average flow which<br />
can be diverted and recharged, or stored in the surface reservoir under<br />
dif fereniconditions.<br />
The techniques proposed in the following are aimed at calculating<br />
these average values as a function <strong>of</strong> planning parameters such as maximum<br />
diverted flow or maximum net capacity <strong>of</strong> the surface reservoir.<br />
Acquaintance <strong>with</strong> streamflow regimes is best acquired by study <strong>of</strong><br />
hydrographs.<br />
ledge it provides.<br />
although detailed time dependence <strong>of</strong> discharges (instantaneous discharges)<br />
are the subject <strong>of</strong> greatest interest; where daily discharges do not under-<br />
go rapid changes (e.g. in rivers, springs, and baseflows), monthly data<br />
may be sufficient.<br />
The more detailed the information, the more exact the ùnow-<br />
Data <strong>of</strong> hourly or daily flow rates are important,<br />
Hydrograph study provides valuable information on the flow regime<br />
and can lead to diversified techniques <strong>of</strong> analysis.<br />
The following information on streamflows is essential for the plan-<br />
ning <strong>of</strong> utilization:<br />
- The average volume <strong>of</strong> annual flows (U 1, which represent the<br />
ave<br />
stream water resources potential; the average annual feasible<br />
utilizable flows is a portion <strong>of</strong> this value.<br />
- The stream's flow regime: Is the stream perennial, intermittent,<br />
or ephemeral?<br />
Does it have a significant base flow or o<strong>nl</strong>y dis-<br />
continuous floods? What is the duration <strong>of</strong> flow or floods, the<br />
yearly number <strong>of</strong> floods, and the interval between successive<br />
floods?<br />
97
98<br />
- Streamf low variability, which comprises variability <strong>with</strong>in a season<br />
or a year and variability from one year to another.<br />
Hydrograph analysis can provide the required information s&h as:<br />
monthly and annual flows and their frequencies; flow-duration curves;<br />
annual average flows in relation to diverted discharges - represented by<br />
horizontal and vertical hydrograph cuts; and annual average flows in rela-<br />
tion to possible reservoir capacities.<br />
In many cases the planning has to be done while insufficient hydro-<br />
logical data are available.<br />
the limited data available to be used efficiently and therefore reduce to<br />
a minimum the period <strong>of</strong> records needed for planning purposes - very <strong>of</strong>ten<br />
to less than 10 years, if the period for which records are available can<br />
be taken as representative <strong>of</strong> climatic conditions.<br />
A. ANNUAL FLOOD BETURN PERIODS<br />
The techniques presented in this paper enable<br />
For practical purposes <strong>of</strong> surface water utilization planning, annual<br />
flood return periods can be computed by using the established formula:<br />
n + l<br />
TE- m<br />
where: T is the return period (in years);<br />
n is the number <strong>of</strong> annual flow data;<br />
... (1)<br />
m is the serial number <strong>of</strong> annual flow data arranged in descending<br />
order, by size.<br />
By using the above formula, return periods approximately equal to<br />
the period for which data are available can be reasonably evaluated.<br />
estimates <strong>of</strong> annual flows (order <strong>of</strong> magnitude) for longer return periode<br />
can be obtained by extrapolation on probability paper by using the points<br />
The
which were calculated according to formula (1) as plotting points; though,<br />
for practical purposes, rare annual flows are <strong>of</strong> little importance, if any,<br />
since in most cases, a project based on rare flows will not be economic,<br />
B. FLOW-DURATION CURVES<br />
Flow-duration curves express the average duration <strong>of</strong> occurring die-<br />
charges equal to or greater than given values (Q > Q ); or dischargea<br />
i- 1<br />
equal to or smaller than given values (Qi 5 Q21e Schematic representation<br />
<strong>of</strong> flow-duration curv<br />
is given in Sketch 1.<br />
Sketch 1: Flow-Duration Curve - Schematic Representation<br />
The duration can be expressed as the average number <strong>of</strong> days per year<br />
on which the said discharges occur, or as the total number <strong>of</strong> days in n<br />
years (see illustration <strong>of</strong> flow-duration curves ‘for the Qishon stream in<br />
Fig. 1 in App. A), or as the relative duration (which is similar to<br />
relative frequency ) .<br />
The computed discharges can be hourly or daily averages, or averages<br />
for any period - in accordance <strong>with</strong> the aims <strong>of</strong> the analysis and the<br />
nature <strong>of</strong> the data, In general, average daily discharges will be used<br />
when the daily discharge fluctuations are not appreciable, or wnen the<br />
representative changes are daily changes. For streams characterized by<br />
99<br />
,
100<br />
a flood flow regime - where the flows are <strong>of</strong> short duration and there is<br />
no significant baseflow - average hourly discharge or averages for even<br />
shorter periods can be chosen. It is customary to express the relative<br />
duration in percentages (p).<br />
The area delimited by Lhe curve Q = f(p), when /Qdp or Z(Q x Ap), is<br />
equal to the average discharge <strong>of</strong> the stream.<br />
The relations can be easily and economically established when calcu-<br />
lations are made by computer, in many cases as by-product <strong>of</strong> the computer<br />
analysis <strong>of</strong> streamflow data. For planning purposes, the direct use <strong>of</strong><br />
flow-duration relations or curves is not convenient and their use is limi-<br />
ted to assisting the computation <strong>of</strong> data needed for drawing<br />
represent the horizontal and vertical hydrograph cuts (as shown in the<br />
following sections <strong>of</strong> this paper). It should be stressed that: (1) The<br />
flow-duration relations can represent the streamflow character; (2) These<br />
relations can be achieved <strong>with</strong> satisfactory accuracy in the zone <strong>of</strong> the<br />
practical importance (the zone where relatively small or medium size dis-<br />
charges occur) using data <strong>of</strong> a relatively short period (few years, mostly<br />
less than 10 years).<br />
curves which<br />
C. AVERAGE ANIUAL FLOW IN RELATION TO MAXIMUM DIVERTED DISC-GE -<br />
HORIZONTAL CUT<br />
When stream diversion i8 considered, whether by gravity flow or<br />
pumping, the dependence <strong>of</strong> annual diverted flows on the maximum diverted<br />
discharge is computed using the historical data. The curve representing<br />
the dependence <strong>of</strong> the average annual diverted flows on the maximum diver-<br />
ted discharges can be considered as the stream's "visiting card".<br />
meaning <strong>of</strong> the diversion, from the hydraulic aspect, is that all the<br />
The
discharges which are equal to or smaller than a certain magnitude, (Q,),<br />
are being diverted (see Skbtch 2).<br />
the diffeTence [(Q,) - (Qd)max I will overspill, while the diverted dis-<br />
charge, Q, will be approximately constant, at the magnitude <strong>of</strong> about<br />
(Qd)maxg<br />
Qd i Diversion<br />
discharge<br />
When the discharge (Q,) exceeds (Q,),<br />
Sketch 2: Schematic Layout <strong>of</strong> Diverdion Sketch 3: Hydrograph Horiaontal Cut<br />
Q<br />
I<br />
From a hydrological point <strong>of</strong> view this means a "horizontal cut"'<strong>of</strong><br />
the streamflow hydrographs (see Sketch 3).<br />
where:<br />
The "horizontai cut" can be expressed mathematically as:<br />
Qi<br />
Qd<br />
(Qä'rnax<br />
is the streamflow discharge;<br />
is the diverted discharge;<br />
is the maximum diverted discharge.<br />
101
102<br />
For every maximum diverted discharge a certain volume can be diverted<br />
every year; for a period <strong>of</strong> n years - a series <strong>of</strong> n annual diverted volmes<br />
can be obtained, out <strong>of</strong> which the average annual diverted flow (Ud) can be<br />
calculated for each value <strong>of</strong> (Q )<br />
d max'<br />
Sketch 4.<br />
The function cd = f (Qdlmx has the shape illustrated schematically in<br />
When Qd -+ œ, then * U e where U represents the stream poten-<br />
d ave' ave<br />
tia1 (average annual flows).<br />
The curve representing the dependence <strong>of</strong> Ü on (Q )<br />
d d max<br />
into three m in zones according to the tangent slopes:<br />
Zone I: AÜd/A(Qd)mx is relatively<br />
large and almost constant. The<br />
diversion will be most justified<br />
economically<br />
-<br />
Zone II: AUd/A(Qd)max quickly de-<br />
creases as (Q ) increases.<br />
d max<br />
This is a transition zone.between<br />
Zones I and III.<br />
-<br />
Zone III: AUd/A(Qd),, diminishes<br />
as (Qd)mx increases, and tends<br />
towards zero when (Q ) * m, In<br />
d max<br />
this zone, diversions are usually<br />
not worthwhile o<br />
A<br />
5<br />
CI<br />
v<br />
-<br />
Sketch 4: Ud -<br />
can be divided<br />
I<br />
-H I<br />
Uave<br />
f [(Qd)max]
- Note:<br />
(i) The above relations can be easily obtained from the computer<br />
at small cost.<br />
They can also be calculated <strong>with</strong>out a computer,<br />
in some cases easily (depending on the data).<br />
(ii) If the flow-duration curve is used, expressed by relative<br />
durations (p), and the average nupiber <strong>of</strong> flow days per year<br />
(ta) are given, then üd = f [ (Qd),] can be calculated by<br />
the formula:<br />
-<br />
- -<br />
where:<br />
t is the average number <strong>of</strong> flow days per year;<br />
. . . (3)<br />
p is the relative duration (expressed as a fraction) <strong>of</strong><br />
discharges equal to or greater than the appropriate Q.<br />
(iii) Althmgh the historical streamflow data will not be repeated<br />
in the future, the calculated diverted volumes represent<br />
fairi,y satisfactorily the amounts and distribution <strong>of</strong> the<br />
expected volumes for practical purposes <strong>of</strong> planning.<br />
In planning streamflow utilization by diversion <strong>of</strong> flows up to a<br />
certain maximum diversion discharge, the above relations, based on a<br />
simple "horizontal cut" <strong>of</strong> hydrographs, are widely used (see illustration<br />
<strong>of</strong> horizontal, vertical and double cuts <strong>of</strong> hydrographs in App. A, Fig. 2).<br />
The maximum diverted discharge is determined according to direct or in-<br />
direct economic considerations (for instance - the limitation <strong>of</strong> the<br />
diverted discharges in order to minimize the inflow <strong>of</strong> sedimentary<br />
materials).<br />
When limitations exist <strong>with</strong> regard to small discharges,<br />
this method cannot be applied (see Section D).<br />
103
1 o4<br />
When water rignts refer to baseflows and/or discharges up to a minimm<br />
diverted discharge, Qo, (when Q > Q o<strong>nl</strong>y Q is utilized), the computation<br />
O<br />
can be made by translating the pivot <strong>of</strong> the axes to a new starting point<br />
- - *<br />
(Q0; U >. In this case, new scales will Óe used: Qd (Qd - Qo) and<br />
O - U: = Üd - -<br />
Üo. If the point (Qo; U ) lies outside <strong>of</strong> Zone I, or at its<br />
edge - the best flows are already utilized, .even though this does not mean<br />
a priori that the proposed scheme will not De feasible.<br />
O<br />
D. AVELUGE ANHUAI., FLOW IN RELATION TO DIVERTED DISCURGES - DOUBLE CUT<br />
When there are limitations to the diversion <strong>of</strong> baseflow discharges,<br />
or any definite discharges less than a certain magnitude, the relation <strong>of</strong><br />
average annual flows to diverted discharges cannot be computed by means <strong>of</strong><br />
a simple "horizontal cut",<br />
and horizontal cut, is required (see Sketch 5).<br />
In these casesp a "double cut", i.e. a vertical<br />
Double Cut Horizontal Cut Vertical Cut<br />
Sketch 5: Schematic Representation <strong>of</strong> Double Cut<br />
Such a case will arise when baseflow is <strong>of</strong> undesirable quality for<br />
diversion purposes - generally too saline; conversely, during flood flows<br />
tne water is <strong>of</strong> good quality and can be diverted up to a certain maximum<br />
value, (Qd)max*<br />
In this case the double cut - shown in Sketch 5-A - ie
105<br />
used, When from a certain discharge onwards tiie sediment concentration is<br />
undesirable for artificial recharge or from the aspect <strong>of</strong> reservoir capa-<br />
city losses, and it is decided not to divert those discharges - a vertical<br />
cut for Q = (Qd)mx is used (see Sketch 5-C).<br />
Since during planning it is still unknown which Q and which (Q )<br />
d max<br />
will be selected, different combinations have to be examined. Tiiis can be<br />
done by establishing a series <strong>of</strong> curves which describe the relations be-<br />
tween annual average flows to maximum diverted discharges for different<br />
values <strong>of</strong> Q<br />
[Qo = constant]. This analysis has the disadvantage <strong>of</strong> being<br />
related to discontinuous values <strong>of</strong> Qo and the need for repeating the calcu-<br />
lations for each value <strong>of</strong> Q<br />
involved, many sets <strong>of</strong> curves'will be required).<br />
O<br />
(when the storage capacity <strong>of</strong> a reservoir is<br />
Such work is superfluous<br />
and can be limited to the calculation <strong>of</strong> o<strong>nl</strong>y two curves - the horizontal<br />
cut curve and the vertical cut curve - if the following equation is used:<br />
- - -<br />
UA = UB - uc<br />
where:<br />
-<br />
UA = fl<br />
- UB = f2<br />
-<br />
... (4)<br />
Qo; (Qd)mxl, represent the double cut';<br />
(Q,),] o is established by means <strong>of</strong> a horizontal cut;<br />
U = f [Q ] , is established by means <strong>of</strong> a vertical cut.<br />
c 3 0<br />
It is possible to calculate Ü<br />
A<br />
for any desired combination <strong>of</strong> (Q<br />
d<br />
)<br />
max<br />
and Qo by the use <strong>of</strong> the two curves (see Sketch 5-B and C).<br />
Each <strong>of</strong> the<br />
functions Ü and Û can easily be calculated by computer. These functions,<br />
B C<br />
as calculated for the Qishon stream in Israel, are illustrated in App.&<br />
'pig. 2.
1 O b<br />
-<br />
Function Ü can easily be calculated from U*, <strong>with</strong>out use <strong>of</strong> a compu-<br />
C<br />
ter, on the basis <strong>of</strong> a flow-duration curve, when the duration indicates<br />
the average number <strong>of</strong> days per year <strong>of</strong> any given discharge or discharges<br />
exceeding the given value.<br />
be expressed by:<br />
-<br />
where:<br />
In this case the relation between the two will<br />
ta and p as in equation (3)<br />
t* is the average number <strong>of</strong> days per year <strong>of</strong> a discharge <strong>of</strong> Qo or<br />
-<br />
more (see Sketch 3); t* = ta x (P)~,.<br />
E. THE USE OF THE VERTICAZ. CUT<br />
In addition to the contribution <strong>of</strong> the vertical cut curve for<br />
simplifying the double cut technique and its use for planning <strong>of</strong> di-<br />
versions <strong>with</strong> constraints <strong>of</strong> maximum discharges owing to sedimentation<br />
IQ0 (QdImxi Qd Q for Q 5 (Qd1-i Qd = 0 for Q ’ (Qd)maxla the<br />
curves are used for calculating the average annual sediment concentra-<br />
tion or load.<br />
The average annual sediment load can be calculated using simul-<br />
taneously the vertical cut curve and the curve describing the relation<br />
<strong>of</strong> the sediment concentrations to flow discharges (mostly log-log rela-<br />
tions). The computation is carried out as demonstrated in Appendix B.<br />
The average annual volume <strong>of</strong> sediment load, (Us)ave, <strong>of</strong> the stream<br />
is calculated as:<br />
m<br />
... (6)
Accordingly, the average annual sediment concentration, ave(Cv), is<br />
calculated as:<br />
where :<br />
(AUVIj<br />
-<br />
i- (Uslave<br />
ave('v) 'ave<br />
.. (7)<br />
107<br />
-<br />
(ÜVli - (Uv)i-l, indicates the contribution <strong>of</strong> the discharges<br />
<strong>with</strong>in the limits <strong>of</strong> Qi-i to Q, to the average annual flow;<br />
-<br />
(U<br />
v<br />
)<br />
i<br />
indicates the average annual flow from the vertical cut<br />
curve [for Q 2 Qil.<br />
[(Cv)avel, is the mean volumetric sediment concentration <strong>of</strong> the dis-<br />
charges <strong>with</strong>in the limits <strong>of</strong> Qi-i to Q,.<br />
j indicates the intervals <strong>of</strong> the discharges (AQ), chosen for<br />
the calculation.<br />
It should be noted that since the significant reduction in reservoir<br />
storage capacity resulting from sedimentation in arid and semi-arid zones<br />
is mostly due to rare high rate floods, there is a need for data <strong>of</strong> a<br />
relatively long period. In such cases, it is therefore recommended to<br />
use probability analysis in the evaluation <strong>of</strong> the frequencies. However,<br />
regional analysis supported by analysis <strong>of</strong> historical flood water marks<br />
for rough estimates <strong>of</strong> the "maximum historical floods" enables relatively<br />
short period data to be used for evaluating the expected average annual<br />
sediment load order <strong>of</strong> magnitude (in this case - channel sections <strong>with</strong><br />
a stable bed should be chosen; otherwise large mistakes may occur as a<br />
result <strong>of</strong> marked changes in the channel bed).<br />
F. ANNUAL STORABLE FLOW AS A FUNCTION OF RESERVOIR CAPACITY<br />
The quantities <strong>of</strong> reservoir-stored streamflows which can be<br />
utilized depend on flows, net reservoir capacity, reservoir operation,<br />
and seepage and evaporation losses.<br />
When the reservoir is to be emptied every year (e.g. there is<br />
a rainy season in which the flows are stored and a dry season when the<br />
stored water is used), it is possible to estimate the annual stored
108<br />
quantities according to annual flows and net reservoir capacity, as long<br />
as losses, at least during the rainy season, are small. When the expected<br />
losses are large, the possible losses must be known or estimated before<br />
calculations can be made; however,this information is <strong>of</strong>ten not available.<br />
When losses during the rainy season can be disregarded, the reservoir<br />
can every year store quantities smaller than or equal to its net capacity:<br />
in which<br />
Here:<br />
iL<br />
UR = - n<br />
i-1<br />
(URIi = ui when Ui 2 RN<br />
(UR)i = (%li when Ui - ' (%)i<br />
Ui<br />
indicates the annual streamflow in the ith year - when the<br />
reservoir is on the channe1,and annual diverted flow - when<br />
the reservoir is <strong>of</strong>f the channel;<br />
(%)i representing net reservoir capacity in the ith year;<br />
(U<br />
R<br />
)<br />
i<br />
is the amount <strong>of</strong> water stored in the ith year;<br />
-<br />
UR<br />
is the n years' average annual amount <strong>of</strong> water stored in the<br />
-<br />
reservoir (whose average net capacity is %)<br />
n is the number <strong>of</strong> annual data (calculated by the use <strong>of</strong> either<br />
observed, historical, or <strong>of</strong> reconstructed synthetic data).<br />
The quantity ÜR is always smaller than Uave, when Uave designates<br />
the average possible annual inflows into the reservoir, such as average<br />
diverted streamflow or average streamflow.
Annual net reservoir capacity is defined as freel,,annual capacity<br />
up to maximum operational height (e.g. up to the spillway crest). When<br />
the reservoir is operated in consideration <strong>of</strong> a planned dead storage, net<br />
operational capacity is constant until the dead storage is replete <strong>with</strong><br />
-<br />
sediment; i.e. (%Ii = RN = constant. Storage losses are dependent on<br />
two major factors: the volume <strong>of</strong> annually deposited sediment, and the<br />
volume <strong>of</strong> water remaining in the reservoir at the end <strong>of</strong> each year (the<br />
"remaining volume" is generally constant, owing to the reluctance to pump<br />
mud, except in reservoirs which store water for more than one year; the<br />
case <strong>of</strong> such reservoirs 'is not dealt <strong>with</strong> in this article).<br />
The following should be noted:<br />
(a) The computations as described give approximate solutions.<br />
If losses (by seepage and/or evaporation) are relatively<br />
large, at least monthly water balances are required in order<br />
to calculate the stored inflows <strong>with</strong> reasonable accuracy.<br />
(b) The amount,,<strong>of</strong> water which can be annually utilized also depends<br />
in each case on the operational regime <strong>of</strong> the reservoir and on<br />
the losses (there is a difference between the utilized and the<br />
stored amounts, since losses occur while the stored water is<br />
being utilized).<br />
(c) In arid and semi-arid zones - in many cases, due to the limited<br />
potential <strong>of</strong> the stream and the considerable seepage and evapora-<br />
tion losses - surface water utilization is based on artificial<br />
recharge <strong>of</strong> aquifers. In such cases the reservoirs are used<br />
for regulating and silting purposes; therefore (UR)i can exceed<br />
the net reservoir storage capacity, as it is a product <strong>of</strong> a<br />
109
number <strong>of</strong> floods which entered the reservoir after it was<br />
emptied or partly emptied (after every flood the stored water<br />
is transferred to spreading grounds for artificial recharge).<br />
Principally, the calculations, the character, and the analysis<br />
<strong>of</strong> the relations between FR and RN are the same as dealt <strong>with</strong><br />
in this Section.<br />
The average annual volume <strong>of</strong> stored water (uR) and the reservoir<br />
efficiency (ÜR/uaVe) as functions <strong>of</strong> average net reservoir capacity (i$)<br />
are shown schematically in Sketch 6. (The meaning <strong>of</strong> the different zones<br />
is as explained in Section C for Sketch 4)<br />
d<br />
Zond Zonelzone (UR/Uave><br />
A Zonalzone I Zone<br />
2-<br />
Rd -<br />
Sketch 6: Schematic Representation <strong>of</strong> U R = f (s) and (ÜR/UaVe) = F (s)<br />
The curves, which summarize the aforementioned influences, illus-<br />
trate the contribution <strong>of</strong> average net reservoir capacity (Q).<br />
-<br />
Here too,<br />
as in the analysis <strong>of</strong> the relations illustrated in Sketch 4, different<br />
zones <strong>of</strong> the curves can be discerned, characterized by the magnitude <strong>of</strong><br />
the slopes <strong>of</strong> the tangents to the curves (AÜR/A% or A(ÛR/Uave)/A$).<br />
These slopes represent the marginal additions <strong>of</strong> the average annual<br />
quantity <strong>of</strong> storable water for the addition <strong>of</strong> a unit <strong>of</strong> net reservoir<br />
capacity .
-<br />
It is characteristic that as % increases, AÜR/AQ decreases. For<br />
111<br />
high values <strong>of</strong> RN the value AÜR/A$ is small, as it represents rare flood<br />
flows; its reliability is therefore limited.<br />
An analysis <strong>of</strong> this kind is <strong>of</strong> great importance for preliminary<br />
estimates and/or feasibility calculations, since it makes it possible<br />
to find easily the approximate economic solution.<br />
Recent investigations made by the Surface <strong>Water</strong> Utilization Depart-<br />
ment <strong>of</strong> Tahal - <strong>Water</strong> Planning for Israel Ltd. prove that the relationship<br />
- -<br />
between UR and % can be approximately estimated on a regional basis using<br />
as a parameter the dimensio<strong>nl</strong>ess standard deviation (the ratio u /U<br />
u ave’<br />
where U is the standard deviation, and U is the average annual flow).<br />
U ave<br />
It was found that the ratio ouIU is, in many cases, <strong>of</strong> regional<br />
ave<br />
character. (The above-mentioned investigations have not yet been con-<br />
cluded and hence cannot yet be summarized).<br />
The function described above is illustrated in App. A, Fig. 3.<br />
G. THE COMPUTATION OF RN AND RN<br />
where :<br />
Annual net reservoir capacity can be computed from the equation:<br />
(%li = - ... (9)<br />
($>i<br />
is the net reservoir capacity at the end <strong>of</strong> the<br />
ith year;<br />
(%)i-1 is the net reservoir capacity at the end <strong>of</strong> the<br />
(i-i) th year;<br />
(Rs)i is the volume <strong>of</strong> the sediment trapped in the<br />
reservoir during the ith year.
112<br />
The volume <strong>of</strong> the sediment deposits trapped in the reservoir during<br />
a certain year can be calculated from the equation:<br />
where :<br />
(CS) i<br />
(RsIi = (EVIi x Uix(T.E.Ii = - x Ui x (T.Ea)i ... (10)<br />
YS<br />
is the average concentration <strong>of</strong> the transported sediment<br />
during the ith year, by volume;<br />
(C ) is the average concentration <strong>of</strong> the transported sediment<br />
s i<br />
th<br />
during the i year, by weight (e.g. in p.p.m);<br />
YS<br />
ui<br />
is the average specific weight <strong>of</strong> the trapped sediment<br />
(generally approximately constant, depending on sediment<br />
qualities and reservoir operation);<br />
represents the reservoir inflow in the ith year;<br />
(T.E.Ii is the trap efficiency in the ith year - the portion <strong>of</strong> the<br />
sediment which remains in the reservoir (if there is any<br />
overspill, part <strong>of</strong> the sediment leaves the reservoir <strong>with</strong><br />
the overspill).<br />
For a design period <strong>of</strong> n years, especially when the value <strong>of</strong> n is<br />
high (tens <strong>of</strong> Years), the total loss in reservoir storage capacity re-<br />
sulting from sedimentation can be calculated as:<br />
will be<br />
Therefore, the average annual loss in reservoir storage capacity<br />
-<br />
Rs = - (Rs)i = Uave x (T.E.1 x [ave(Cv)l ."a (11)<br />
n i=l
where :<br />
ave('v)<br />
is the average concentration, by volume,<strong>of</strong> the sediment<br />
deposited by the transported water at the reservoir<br />
location;<br />
(T.E.) ,the average trap efficiency.<br />
The average net reservoir capacity for a period <strong>of</strong> n years will be<br />
estimated as:<br />
where :<br />
Ro<br />
is the initial reservoir capacity.<br />
... (12)<br />
11 3<br />
It should be noted that since it is impossible to predict the future<br />
annual flows, there is no other practical possibility <strong>of</strong> evaluating the<br />
net reservoir storage capacity. For practical purposes, the use <strong>of</strong> average<br />
net storage capacity (%) is sufficient.<br />
H. RECOMMENDED HYDROLOGICAL INVESTIGATIONS<br />
Hydrological investigations directed towards finding parameters<br />
which enable non-dimensional curves to be established which represent<br />
the main functions discussed in this article, are recommended, especially<br />
on a regional basis.<br />
The reconstruction <strong>of</strong> such a regional synthetic curve, even though<br />
not "scientifically accurate", will be <strong>of</strong> great assistance in planning<br />
surface water utilization schemes, and especially in planning the first<br />
stage <strong>of</strong> such schemes.
114<br />
BIBLIOGRAPHY<br />
This article is based on the experience gained in Tahal - <strong>Water</strong><br />
Planning for Israel Ltd., in the last 20 years, &.on the Technical<br />
Reports published by Tahal in Hebr’ew, as also on the foliowing works.<br />
1. Kuiper, E., <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Development, Buttexworths,<br />
London, 1965<br />
2. Linsley, Ray K. and J. B. Franzini, <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong><br />
Engineering, McGraw-Hill Book Co., London, 1964<br />
3. Searcy, J. K., Flow-Duration Curves, Manual <strong>of</strong> <strong>Hydrology</strong>,<br />
Geological Survey <strong>Water</strong> Supply Paper 1542-A, Washington D.C.,<br />
1959
APPENDIX 13: CALCULATION OF AVERAGE ANNUAL SEDIMENT. VOLUME<br />
TRANSPORTED BY LOWER QISHON FLOWS<br />
li 5<br />
1. Streamflow hydrographs were used for preparing a %cirtical cut curve"<br />
representing the average annual values <strong>of</strong> flow (Uc) contributed by<br />
discharges up to any value <strong>of</strong> QI as explained in Sections D and E,<br />
and illustrated in Fig. 2 <strong>of</strong> App. A.<br />
2. Simultaneous data <strong>of</strong> sediment concentrations and instantaneous dis-<br />
charges, supplied by the Israel Jydrological Service, drawn on a<br />
log-log paper enable the construction <strong>of</strong> a correlation line between<br />
the average sediment concentration and the instantaneous discharges.<br />
In order to be on the safe side, the line was removed toward the<br />
higher concentrations (<strong>of</strong> each discharge) - see Fig. 4 <strong>of</strong> App. A.<br />
3.. The calculations are shown in detail in the following table.<br />
-
11 6.<br />
CALCULATION OF AVERAGE ANNUAL SEDIMENT LOAD<br />
EXAMPLE: LOWER QISHON STREAM (ISRAEL)<br />
-<br />
uc<br />
cs<br />
L CU. mf s ec<br />
-<br />
5<br />
O<br />
1<br />
3<br />
5<br />
1 .20<br />
10<br />
15<br />
--<br />
Total<br />
LEGElID:<br />
-<br />
MCMIY r<br />
3.0<br />
6.0<br />
8. O<br />
10.4<br />
II..<br />
12.0<br />
13. O<br />
Q = diccnarge<br />
3,O<br />
3.0<br />
2. o<br />
2.4<br />
1.0<br />
O. 6<br />
1.0<br />
13.0<br />
PPm<br />
400<br />
800<br />
1 , 200<br />
1,700<br />
2,300<br />
2,700<br />
-<br />
300<br />
600<br />
1 , O00<br />
1 , 450<br />
2,000<br />
2,500<br />
4,000<br />
5 x AÜc<br />
ave<br />
to<strong>nl</strong>year<br />
APP.<br />
Sneet 2<br />
900<br />
1 , 800<br />
2,000<br />
3 , 480<br />
2,000<br />
1,500<br />
4,000<br />
15,680<br />
U2 = average annual flow volume related to Q calculated by<br />
vertical cut <strong>of</strong> hydrographc (from Fig. 2 <strong>of</strong> App. A)<br />
I -<br />
AUc = the interval <strong>of</strong> Uc contributed by discharge interval<br />
-<br />
Cs = average sediment concentration, by weight (from Fig. 4<br />
<strong>of</strong> App. A) , high values<br />
- -<br />
(Cs)ave = average CS for discharge interval<br />
4. The result obtained from the calculations shown in the above table,<br />
is that average annual sediment load transported by the Qishon stream-<br />
ilows amounts to about 16,000 ton. Assuming an average trap efficiency<br />
<strong>of</strong> 90 percent and sediment deposits specific weight <strong>of</strong> 1.5 ton per cu.m -<br />
the average annual value <strong>of</strong> sediment trapped and deposited in the planned<br />
reservoir will be about 10,000 cu.m per year ( 16~000x0'9 9,600<br />
1.5<br />
i0,OOO cu.m per year).
Rainy yerre - average: t* > 40 daye I<br />
---Ueriium reinfall years - averaec:<br />
20 1 t* 40 daye<br />
Dry year# - average: t* < 20 daye<br />
dischargee exceeding Q<br />
t* - Number OP daye <strong>with</strong> discharges cxceeding<br />
1.5 m3Jeec<br />
.,...u. Average for 1940141 to 1964165<br />
FIG. 1: FLOW-DURATION CURVES FOR QISHON<br />
- STREAM (ISUAEL)<br />
FIG. 2: HORIZûNTAL, VERTICAL AND DOUBLE<br />
CUTS OF HYDROGRAPHS OF QISHON<br />
STREAM (ISRAEL)<br />
117<br />
Appendìx A
118<br />
FLG. 3: THE DEPENDENCE OF THE AVERAGE STORABLE<br />
FLOWS AND THE STORAGE EFFICIENCY ON<br />
THE NET AVERAGE RESERVOIR CAPACITY AT<br />
THE UPPER QISHON (UPSTREAM THE HYDRO-<br />
METRIC STATION TO WHICH THE DATA OF<br />
FIG. 1 AND 2 REFER), ISML<br />
Amendix A
Appendix A<br />
11 9
ABSTRACT<br />
APPLICATION OF COUTAGNE'S AND TURC FORMULAS<br />
TO THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE RIVERS<br />
Emilio Eugénio D'Oliveira Mertens<br />
Joäo José Mimoso Loureiro<br />
Checking <strong>of</strong> Coutagne's and Turc formulas, was purposed to<br />
obtain values, though approximated, for the annual mean run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
<strong>of</strong> the several rivers at southern Mozambique where few gauging<br />
stations exist. Therefore, measured rainfall and temperature<br />
values were collected from the meteorological and gauging stations,<br />
as well as the run<strong>of</strong>f values observed in the locations.<br />
We conclude from the results obtained that the application<br />
<strong>of</strong> these rules has given us, <strong>with</strong> relative guarantee, the annual<br />
mean run<strong>of</strong>f values, <strong>with</strong> deviations inferior to 10% which can be<br />
considered as satisfactory.<br />
RESUME<br />
Les formules de Coutagne et Turc ont été utilisées pour<br />
obtenir des valeurs, même approximatives, de l'écoulement moyen<br />
annuel pour les différents fleuves de la région sud de Mozambique<br />
dans laquelle on ne dispose que d'un nombre très limité de<br />
stations de jaugeage.<br />
Les calculs ont St6 effectués à partir des valeurs des<br />
précipitations et des températures mesurées aux stations météorologiques<br />
et pluviométriques, ainsi que des valeurs des écoulements<br />
observées à différentes stations.<br />
Les résultats obtenus montrent que l'application de ces<br />
deux formules donne, avec une précision relative, des valeurs de<br />
l'écoulement moyen annuel. Les écarts sont inférieurs à lo%, ce<br />
qui peut être considéré comme satisfaisant.
The hidrological phenomenons o- greater interest, relating to the hidro-<br />
logical studies <strong>of</strong> a catchment area under consideration, are namely:-<br />
Rainfall<br />
Air temperature<br />
Relative humidity<br />
Evaporation<br />
Hidrometical records<br />
Flow discharges <strong>of</strong> streams and run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
Sediment discharges<br />
The main purpose <strong>of</strong> a certain hidrological study, consists on the deter-<br />
mination for each one <strong>of</strong> the observed actions, <strong>of</strong> the variability principles<br />
there<strong>of</strong> at distinguished intervals, analogy principles <strong>of</strong> the phenomenon itself<br />
from site to site and <strong>of</strong> the correlation principles amongst the several pheno-<br />
menons.<br />
One <strong>of</strong> the basilar elements necessary for the planning <strong>of</strong> an economical<br />
development program is the knowledge <strong>of</strong> the value and distribution <strong>of</strong> its hidrg<br />
logical resources.<br />
In Mozambique, registration <strong>of</strong> the hydric resources has been facing<br />
great difficulties not o<strong>nl</strong>y in what refers to the extension <strong>of</strong> the territory but<br />
also, and essentially, by lack <strong>of</strong> observations <strong>of</strong> the hidrological phenomenons,<br />
namely the run<strong>of</strong>f and flow discharges <strong>of</strong> rivers and water-sources.<br />
From a report presented by Dr. L. Turc on the 3rd.iiidrological Ehgeneer-<br />
ing Congress organized by the 'Societé iiidrologique de France', which took<br />
place in Argel, in 1954, we were suggested to follow the idea <strong>of</strong> verifying the<br />
possibility in the application <strong>of</strong> Coutagne's and Rirc general rules, related to<br />
the Southern Mozambique water-sources.<br />
2 - COUTAGNE'S AND TURC GENERAL RULES<br />
These general rules allow us to estimate, by simple calculation, the<br />
value <strong>of</strong> a catchment area's run<strong>of</strong>f deficit, provided that rainfall and tempe-<br />
rature are known.
2.<br />
Run<strong>of</strong>f deficit - is the difference between mean rainfall height<br />
123<br />
pertinent to a certain site in the water-source and the corresponding height<br />
to the flow discharge estimated at the referred site.<br />
2.1 - COUTAGNE'S GENERAL RULE<br />
Being :<br />
H = Mean rainfall height<br />
general rule is<br />
E = Hficient rainfall height, that is, the height which transform<br />
itself theoretically, in the whole, to run<strong>of</strong>f.<br />
D = Run<strong>of</strong>f deficit = H - E<br />
C = Run<strong>of</strong>f coefficient = 2<br />
H<br />
K = Coutape's constant<br />
2<br />
D = H - KH2 being E = KH<br />
and since C = E and D=H-E<br />
H<br />
Now as:<br />
C,D-H or C = KH<br />
H<br />
2<br />
(C - KH)2 = (c 1 - KH + (c 2 - KH 2)2 + (c 3 - KH 3) + ....**<br />
to minimize this sum, it will do equalizing zero to the first derivative:<br />
wherefore:<br />
(C 1 - KH 1) H 1 + (C 2 - KH 2) H 2 + .......= O<br />
CH<br />
CH-KH2 = O K = -<br />
H2<br />
From the above determination it is given the most probable value for K.
124<br />
/3.<br />
2.2 - TURC'S GENERAL RULE<br />
L = Turc's constant<br />
P = Evaporation plus lost by percolation<br />
T =Mean temperature<br />
A = Constant<br />
being<br />
wherefore<br />
H<br />
'dFtJ2<br />
L2<br />
L = A + 25 T + 0,05 T3<br />
The author still precises that applying his general rule in 254<br />
Catchment areas, considering A = 300, distributed towards every climate in the<br />
world, it has been reckmed that values <strong>of</strong> 0 observed and calculated from the<br />
referred general rule, came out as to the undermentioned results:-<br />
or<br />
or rather<br />
in 53% the cal. D - me86 D < 40 mni<br />
in 43% the cal. D - meas. D < 0,l meas. D<br />
i,n 65% the cal. D - meas.D < 0,2 meas. D
4.<br />
3- REPORT ûF THE CONSIDERED LOCATIONS<br />
125<br />
Described hereyder are the considered locations at the Limpopo's<br />
(incl. Elephant's River), Incomati, Umbeluzi, Sabie and Usuto Rivers (D. 1)<br />
3.1 - ELEPHANT'S RIVER<br />
Location: Maçuço - Mozambique<br />
2<br />
Catchment area: 66.600 Km<br />
Mean rainfall height: 636 mm<br />
Mean temperature: 18,9OC.<br />
Observation years : 1944/45 to 1970/71.<br />
3.2 - LIMPOPO'S RIVER<br />
Location:Beit bridge - R.A.S.<br />
2<br />
Catchment area: i88.000 Km<br />
Mean rainfall height: 481 mm<br />
Mean temperature : 2OoC.<br />
Observation years : 1955/56 to 1963/64<br />
3.3 - LIMPOPO'S AND ELEPHANTS RIVERS<br />
Location: Vila Trigo de Morais - Mozambique<br />
2<br />
Catchment area: 340.000 Km<br />
Mean rainfall height: 541 mm<br />
Mean temperature: 20,2OC<br />
Observation years: 1951/52 to 1969/70<br />
3.4 - INCOMATI'S RIVER<br />
Location: Ressano Garcia - Mozambique<br />
2<br />
Catchment area: 21.600 Km<br />
Mean rainfall height: 832,2 mm<br />
Mean temperature: 18,8OC<br />
Observation years : 1955/56 to 1969/70<br />
./.
126<br />
3.5 - SABIfl'S RIVER<br />
Location: Machatuine - Mozambique<br />
Catchment area: 6.200 Km2<br />
Mean rainfall height: 766,4 mm<br />
Mean temperature: 20,7OC<br />
Observation years: 1955/56 to 1969/70<br />
3.6 - UMBELUZI 1 s RIVER<br />
Location: Goba - Mozambique<br />
Catchment area: 3.100 Km<br />
2<br />
Mean rainfall height: 820,3 mm<br />
Mean temperature: 21,6OC<br />
Observation years : 1955/56 to 1970/7i<br />
3.7 - MAPUTO'S RIVER<br />
Location: Sip<strong>of</strong>aneni - Swaziland<br />
2<br />
Catchment area: 12.903 Km<br />
Mean rainfall height: 83i,7 mm.<br />
Mean temperature : 22OC<br />
Observation years : 1958/59 to 1964/65<br />
3.8 - Therefore we get two distinguished groups in regarding to pluviosity<br />
and temperature:-<br />
- Limpop<strong>of</strong>s River Groue - <strong>with</strong> mean rainfalls between 450 and 650 mm<br />
and temperatures from 18OC to 2OoC;<br />
- Incomati's, Sabie, Umbeluziaid Usuto Group <strong>with</strong> mean rainfall<br />
values <strong>of</strong> 800 m. and temperatures higher than 2OoC.<br />
4 - APPLICATION OF COUTAGW'S GENERAL RULE<br />
We have tried Coutagne's general rule for each one <strong>of</strong> the above<br />
groups and locations therein.
4.1 - LIMPOPO'S RIVER CATCHMENT AREA<br />
127<br />
2<br />
The 340.000 Km <strong>of</strong> the Limpopo's River Catchment Area relating to<br />
2<br />
Vila Trigo de Morais' gauging station, include the 66.600 Km <strong>of</strong> Maçuço's<br />
gauging station at Elephants' River and the 188.000<br />
2<br />
Km pertinent to Beit<br />
Bridge location.<br />
4.1.1 - For the 27 observation years at Elephants' River we have reached to<br />
the following type <strong>of</strong> Coutagne's rule:-<br />
D = H - 0,000055 H (1)<br />
The most probable values for the measured run<strong>of</strong>f deficits (612,9 mm)<br />
and calculated ones (613,3 mm) differ in 4 mm to a mean deviation <strong>of</strong> _+ 8,7 mm<br />
and a mean observation error <strong>of</strong> 7,4 mm.<br />
Extension <strong>of</strong> this rule for the available 66 rainfall observation<br />
years would be plai<strong>nl</strong>y acceptable in view <strong>of</strong> the fact that for a period <strong>of</strong> 34<br />
years <strong>of</strong> which we own the closest possible run<strong>of</strong>f estimatives, difference is<br />
kept for the measured and calculated deficit.<br />
4.1.2 - For the 9 observation years in Limpopo's River area at Beit Bridge we<br />
reached to the results hereunder, to Coutagne's rule:<br />
2<br />
D = H - OJ00O031 H<br />
(II)<br />
recording the most probable values <strong>of</strong> the measured run<strong>of</strong>f deficits (472,7 mm)<br />
and calculated ones (473,7 mm) being the mean deviation and each observation<br />
error <strong>of</strong> _+ 6,2 mm and 3,7 mm respectively.<br />
4.1.3 - Finally for the i9 observation years in Vila Trigo de Morais, situated<br />
after the confluence <strong>with</strong> Limpopo's and Elephants Rivers, Coutagne's rule<br />
presents us the following result:-<br />
2<br />
D = H - 0,000047 H<br />
(III)<br />
Measured and calculated run<strong>of</strong>f deficits have a similar probablest<br />
value, but the mean deviation is increased in ,+ 10,l mm and mean observation<br />
error amounts to f 7,6 mm.<br />
./.
128<br />
/7.<br />
4.1.4 - It is left to determinate now an available Coutagne's general rule<br />
to the entire group <strong>of</strong> 55 observations, as the principal elements taken to<br />
its calculation - run<strong>of</strong>f coefficient (C) and mean rainfall (H) - are not<br />
dependent values on those <strong>of</strong> the referring catchment areas, same being consi-<br />
dered to the run<strong>of</strong>f deficit.<br />
Ordering the values <strong>of</strong> the observed mean rainfall, the undermentioned<br />
rule is calculated (Q1):-<br />
2<br />
D = H - 0,000050 H (IV)<br />
Through the same comparative system, it was obtained to the measured<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f deficits, the value <strong>of</strong> 560,3 mm and for the calculated ones through<br />
the same rule (IV) 56O,6 mm being 0,3 mm the difference there<strong>of</strong>.<br />
Mean deviation <strong>of</strong> the measured and calculated values amounts to<br />
+ 9,l mm <strong>with</strong> a mean observation error for each one <strong>of</strong> 7,2 mm.<br />
-<br />
Seing that the values <strong>of</strong> medium rainfalls, relating to the observa-<br />
tion periods, are respectively <strong>of</strong> 636, 481 and 541 mm <strong>with</strong> a short difference<br />
from the medium normal rainfall, we may conclude that Coutagne's rule <strong>of</strong><br />
which coefficient is equal to 0,000050, can be applied to every catchment<br />
area <strong>of</strong> which medium rainfall is comprehended between 450 and 650 mm. However<br />
it is necessary to point out that its application, in view <strong>of</strong> the great ex-<br />
tensions that they comprehend, cannot be considered as absolutely precise,<br />
except for mean values.<br />
Application <strong>of</strong> this rule every year may lead us to<br />
mistake, since it calculates a regular correlation amongst run<strong>of</strong>f and rainfall<br />
which is not precised in the practice because <strong>of</strong> the powerful stream <strong>of</strong> Lim-<br />
popo's River, namely before the confluence <strong>with</strong> Elephants' River.<br />
4.2 - CATCHMENT AREA'S GROUP OF INCOMATIIS, SABIE, UMBELUZI AND USUTO RIVERS<br />
2<br />
The 43,803 Km <strong>of</strong> this group comprehend all the rivers which drain<br />
<strong>of</strong>f in Lourenqo Marques' Bay and are located in an area, mean altitudes <strong>of</strong><br />
which excede the 800 m. and mean rainfall is estimated between 750 mm and<br />
850 mm.<br />
All the above catchment areas are neighbouring.<br />
4.2.1 - For the 15 observation years <strong>of</strong> the Incomati's River at Ressano<br />
Garcia rainfall station, we conclude from Coutagne's general rule the next:<br />
2<br />
D = H - 0,000150 H (V)<br />
./.
129<br />
The mean deviation value amounts to 19,7 mm and the mean observation<br />
error to i5 mm for the measured and calculated run<strong>of</strong>f deficits <strong>of</strong> 737,3 and<br />
739,O mm respectively.<br />
4.2.2 - For the Machatuinels rainfall station <strong>of</strong> Sabie's River and Goba's<br />
rainfall station <strong>of</strong> Umbeluzi's River, respectively <strong>with</strong> 15 and 16 observation<br />
years pertinent to an identical period, Coutagne's general rule figures like:<br />
D = H - 0,000131 H<br />
2<br />
2 (VI)<br />
D = H - 0,000145 H<br />
To the first location, measured and calculated run<strong>of</strong>f deficits are<br />
similar (684,7 mm) and mean deviation amounts to _+ 20,4 mm.<br />
At Umbeluzi's River, mean deviation amounts to the decreasing value <strong>of</strong><br />
+ 181 mm and difference between the measured and calculated deficits amounts<br />
-<br />
to 718,s and 719,O.<br />
4.3.3 - For the 7 observation years at the Sip<strong>of</strong>aneni's rainfall station in<br />
Swaziland, the main confluent <strong>of</strong> Maputo's River, Coutagne's general rule is<br />
as follows:-<br />
D = H - 0,000162 (VI1 )<br />
Measured values (717,3 mm) and calculated ones (717,O) differ from<br />
O,3 mm and mean deviation amounts to &17,3.<br />
4.3.4 - Similary to what has been done in Limpopo, it was arranged the group<br />
<strong>of</strong> 53 observation years (Q2) in regard to mean rainfall, which alters from<br />
500 mm to 1.540 mm and the exposed Coukagne's rule is:-<br />
D = H - 0,000140 H2 (VIII)<br />
Difference from the results determined by measuring and obtained from<br />
this ru1.e (VIII) is <strong>of</strong> 1,2 mm <strong>with</strong> a mean deviation <strong>of</strong> f 19,3 mm and _+ 15,8 mm<br />
for the medium error <strong>of</strong> each observation.<br />
To this catchment area's group mean rainfall wherein exceeding 800 mm<br />
and mean small deviations qualifying same as <strong>of</strong> minor torrentiality, and,<br />
consequently, higher stream regularity, application <strong>of</strong> Coutagne's general rule<br />
more than granting us accurate values for the annual run<strong>of</strong>f deficits yet allow<br />
./.
130<br />
/9.<br />
us its application year after year.<br />
5. - APPLICATION OF TURC'S GENERAL RUlE<br />
Application <strong>of</strong> this rule, such as formed by Turc, that is, considering<br />
A=300, could not be used but running the risk <strong>of</strong> forming gross estimate errors<br />
seing that in Mozambique, the catchment areas in study have great extensions,<br />
usually.<br />
5.1 - We have tried to both <strong>of</strong> the groups the application <strong>of</strong> the general rule<br />
formed by Turc, and have found the next following results:-<br />
5.1.1 - IJMPOW'S CATCHMENT AREA<br />
Difference calc. D - meas. D L<br />
II II L<br />
II II A<br />
II II L<br />
II 11 <<br />
II II L<br />
II II<br />
II II<br />
1<br />
Ls<br />
20 mm -<br />
40 mm -<br />
40 ~UW -<br />
0,Ol m.D -<br />
0,05 m.D -<br />
0,l m. D -<br />
0,l m. D -<br />
0,2 m. D -<br />
5.1.2 - INCOMATI'S, SABIE, UMBELUZI AND USUTO GROUP-(Q2)<br />
Difference calc. D - meas. D c 20 m -<br />
11 Il < 40mm -<br />
II II<br />
> 40 ìüiìì -<br />
11 II < 0,Ol m.D -<br />
II II < 0,05 m.D -<br />
11 II < 0,l m.D -<br />
II 11 > 0,l m.D -<br />
11 Il > 0,2 m.D -<br />
53%<br />
76%<br />
24%<br />
14%<br />
22%<br />
36%<br />
64%<br />
O<br />
3%<br />
66%<br />
34%<br />
1 5%<br />
50%<br />
84%<br />
16%<br />
5.2 - Percentages differ from the obtained values by Turc for his Group <strong>of</strong><br />
254 catchment areas and considering the 64% (Limpopols Group) <strong>of</strong> events<br />
superior to 0,l <strong>of</strong> measured D, we are not abled to consider the rule as<br />
applicable.<br />
10%
lo.<br />
131<br />
Therefore it was tried to find a rectifying solution <strong>of</strong> the constants<br />
in function <strong>of</strong> the mean rainfall and annual mean temperature for every catch-<br />
ment area.<br />
Thus we have traced the graphic shown in D.2, consequence <strong>of</strong><br />
succeeding considerations on the measured values.<br />
5.3 - Upon the above application <strong>of</strong> Turc's general rule, established the<br />
constant A from the graphic, we reached to the following results:<br />
5.3.1 - LIMPOPO'S CATCHMENT AREA (Q3)<br />
Difference calc. D - meas. D < 20 mm<br />
II 11 < 40 mm<br />
II II<br />
40mm<br />
11 II<br />
d 0,Ol m.D<br />
II II < 0,05 m.D<br />
11<br />
II<br />
11<br />
II<br />
II<br />
11<br />
< 0,l m. D<br />
> o,1 m. D<br />
> 0,2 m. D<br />
88%<br />
95%<br />
5%<br />
33%<br />
io%<br />
5.3.2 - INCOMATI'S, SABIE, UMBELUZI AND USUTO CATCHMENT AREAS (a)<br />
Difference calc. D -<br />
II II<br />
II<br />
II<br />
II<br />
II<br />
Il<br />
11<br />
II<br />
11<br />
II<br />
11<br />
11<br />
II<br />
10%<br />
O<br />
O<br />
meas. D < 20 mm - 43%<br />
< 40 iiìüi - 87%<br />
> 40 ïìüü - 13%<br />
¿ 0,Ol m.D - 25%<br />
< 0,05 m.D - 8%<br />
< 0,l m.D - 96%<br />
> 0,l m.D - 4%<br />
> 0,2 m.D - O<br />
5.4 - From the whole <strong>of</strong> the 108 compared values, we conclude that in 87% <strong>of</strong><br />
the cases the difference among the calculated and observed values does not<br />
exceed 40 mm and in 96% the difference does not exceed 0,l from the measured<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f deficit. Nevertheless, the most relevant results are that in 2% <strong>of</strong> the<br />
cases the deviation does not exceed 0,Ol meas.D and 53% does not amount to<br />
O,O5 <strong>of</strong> the observed run<strong>of</strong>f deficit.<br />
. /*
132<br />
/li.<br />
6 - CONCLUSIONS<br />
In the water-sources situated at the South <strong>of</strong> Save's River, there<br />
might be applied the Coutagne's and Turc general rules on the following way:<br />
and 700 nun.<br />
COüTAGNE'S GENERAL RULE:<br />
Catchment areas <strong>with</strong> annual medium rainfalls coaiprehend between 450<br />
2<br />
D = H - 0,000050 H<br />
for mean rainfall superior to 700 nun.<br />
TURC'S GENERAL RULE<br />
2<br />
D = H - o,000140 H<br />
Determining constant A from the graphic<br />
Utility in the application <strong>of</strong> these rules becomes evident in view<br />
<strong>of</strong> the non-existence <strong>of</strong> gauging stations along the multiple water-sources in<br />
the area under consideration, meteorologic and rainfall stations taking their<br />
place instead.<br />
But, seing that for the inventorying <strong>of</strong> the hidrological resources<br />
is matter <strong>of</strong> extreme necessity the knowledge, though approximated, <strong>of</strong> the<br />
annual mean rainfall, and yet because it has become evident through the appli-<br />
cation <strong>of</strong> the aforesaid rules that precise values amount to less than i%, we<br />
may say that have succeed <strong>with</strong> the reaching <strong>of</strong> our main purposes.
133<br />
D1
850<br />
800<br />
750<br />
700<br />
650<br />
6 O0<br />
55 o<br />
500<br />
450<br />
\<br />
\<br />
\<br />
\<br />
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\ '<br />
\ i<br />
\ v<br />
35 O<br />
400<br />
C5 O<br />
500<br />
ln<br />
U<br />
L<br />
C<br />
m .-<br />
U - W<br />
u<br />
O<br />
P<br />
a<br />
.- E<br />
-I<br />
VI<br />
O<br />
.-<br />
a<br />
A (TURC2<br />
ABACO PARA A DEIERMINAFAO<br />
DA CON5fANTE DE TURC
DETERMINAÇ~O<br />
DO COEFICIENTE DE COUTAGNE<br />
Rios Limpopo e Elefantes
DEIERMIN4ÇÁO DO COEFICIENTE DE COUTPGNE<br />
Rios Limpopo e Elefantes<br />
1
DETERMINPÇÃO DO COEFICIENTE O€ COüTAGNE<br />
Rios Incomati, Sabié, ümùeltízi e Maputo<br />
OEFIC E NI<br />
e E SCGAIAI<br />
C<br />
-__<br />
Q tu<br />
-Qm<br />
AQ6<br />
Q,lQ<br />
All-<br />
Q,05<br />
n ,u-<br />
9,08<br />
4.05<br />
-0,l3<br />
0,16<br />
0,11<br />
0,08<br />
0,lQ<br />
0,07<br />
0,08<br />
Li1<br />
0.10<br />
o, 11<br />
0.11<br />
O ,O8<br />
O, 14<br />
0,13<br />
0.09<br />
0,OI<br />
O, 08<br />
o ,oa<br />
0,13<br />
0,15<br />
Od3<br />
o, 09.<br />
0.11<br />
0,12<br />
O ,O9<br />
0,13<br />
Q,16<br />
0,12<br />
0,11<br />
0,l.l<br />
0,12<br />
O J 5<br />
-<br />
-e*-<br />
-<br />
HZ<br />
259d81 - -.<br />
392.599<br />
3 1 W P - .<br />
605.284 ~<br />
606 .a41 -~<br />
624.00<br />
628 -849<br />
649.636<br />
6 22.400<br />
685 584 .<br />
687.241<br />
714.025 .<br />
734.449<br />
736 16 4<br />
17O.8134<br />
774.40Q<br />
7 84.996<br />
792.100 -<br />
792.100<br />
793.881<br />
195.664<br />
802.816<br />
846.400 -.<br />
81.9_41<br />
.<br />
-<br />
C H<br />
-<br />
93L776<br />
25,99<br />
@+5Q -<br />
XL§Q __<br />
5Z,60<br />
34kUlQO- - .- - 6430<br />
3áL O M .. in,oo -<br />
381924 67.98<br />
38 4.400 .- 49,6Q_<br />
419,881<br />
32.01<br />
412.164<br />
83,46<br />
448.900 107.20<br />
A98 329<br />
462.40Q<br />
74,47<br />
1>4,40<br />
463,761 48 ,LO<br />
467,856<br />
485,809<br />
504.100<br />
. 47.88<br />
55 I 76<br />
78.10<br />
132.9QO<br />
73,OO<br />
547.600 . 81.40<br />
549.061<br />
81.51<br />
599-076 -<br />
61,92<br />
. 108,92<br />
101.27<br />
71110<br />
55,SI<br />
64,4t?<br />
65,60<br />
107,64<br />
124,35<br />
109.85<br />
77,13<br />
94.38<br />
105 ,ih<br />
79 120<br />
115,lß<br />
142.40<br />
106,80<br />
9h,01<br />
96,l'<br />
107,~J<br />
138.00<br />
17c,77<br />
-<br />
:EPICI1 drESCOAUEN1<br />
-<br />
O CALCULA<br />
45 2<br />
502<br />
.I 29<br />
5 13<br />
524<br />
16 i)<br />
547<br />
57 1<br />
610<br />
56 0<br />
562<br />
603<br />
622<br />
6Q7<br />
630<br />
6 40<br />
634<br />
655<br />
66 2<br />
6 56<br />
708<br />
56 7<br />
676<br />
713<br />
737<br />
739<br />
749<br />
721<br />
704<br />
738<br />
780<br />
76 2<br />
777<br />
799<br />
77 1<br />
744<br />
785<br />
792<br />
797<br />
79 1<br />
780<br />
813<br />
-<br />
A<br />
OM- o<br />
- 21<br />
- -6<br />
+-L3<br />
-<br />
2<br />
-<br />
lî*<br />
-<br />
-12<br />
-18 -<br />
441<br />
- 36<br />
269<br />
144<br />
324<br />
i18 . 324<br />
-1 8 324<br />
+4 - IL<br />
i26 -6 36<br />
-24 57t<br />
-46 211C<br />
-10 -100<br />
+6 36<br />
-1 O 101<br />
+19 36 1<br />
+LI 171<br />
-6 36<br />
-1 1<br />
-2 4<br />
-9 bl<br />
i17 289<br />
-2 7 729<br />
-19 36 i<br />
+10 100<br />
+ 32 1074<br />
+2 3 520<br />
*23<br />
-12<br />
529<br />
144<br />
-29 8 41<br />
-8 6 1"<br />
+?5 625<br />
+ 7 49<br />
+ 2 4<br />
+2 7<br />
-6<br />
- 36<br />
+ 5<br />
729<br />
36<br />
1296<br />
2 c><br />
+12 __ 144<br />
+11 121<br />
+7 49<br />
-22 484<br />
+.4 16<br />
- -<br />
-
38<br />
DETERMIN4C$O DO COEFICIENTE DE COUT4GNE<br />
2
QUADRO COMPARATIVO DOS RESULTADOS OBTIDOS<br />
PELA FORMULA DE TURC E DA CONSTANTE TI,<br />
RADA DOÁBACO<br />
ZONA Bios Limpopo e Elefantes mor<br />
3
140<br />
QUADRO COMPARATIVO DOS RESULTADOS OBTIDOS<br />
PELA FORMULA DE TURC E DACONSTANTE TI-<br />
RADA DO ÁBACO<br />
ZONA Incomati, Sabi6, Umùelilzi e Naputo<br />
4
ABSTRACT<br />
MAPA1 HI DROLOGI CAL STUDY ( LIMPOPO ' S RI VER)<br />
EMILIO EUGENIO D'OLIVEIRA MERTENS<br />
JOÃO JOSE MIMOSO LOUREIRO<br />
Lack <strong>of</strong> observations in the flow discharges and run<strong>of</strong>f,<br />
taken at the future location <strong>of</strong> mapai's dam, have compelled<br />
us to the essaying <strong>of</strong> diversed methodology viewing its<br />
obtention.<br />
It was selected the method <strong>of</strong> the specifica1 run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
technic which has conducted us to most consistant and<br />
significant results in conjunction <strong>with</strong> those observed and<br />
calculated for other locations at the catchment area.<br />
RESUME<br />
L'abscence des observations relatives aux débits et<br />
écoulements measurables au futur lieu du barrage du mapai,<br />
nous a forcé d'essayer diverse méthodologie pour en obtenir.<br />
I1 a ;te choisie la method: de la technique dés débits<br />
specifiques que nous a conduit a des resultats tres concordants<br />
et significatives en conjunction avec ceux observés<br />
et calculés pour les autres lieu du bassin versant.
142<br />
1 - CATCHMENT AREA<br />
1.1 - Site, area, relief and hydrography:<br />
The hidrographic basin <strong>of</strong> the Limpopo River has its major part in the<br />
territories <strong>of</strong> South Africa, Rhodesia and Botswana, its area <strong>of</strong> 412 O00 km2<br />
being devided in the following manner (Drawing 1):<br />
South African Republic .................... 193 500 km2<br />
Rhodesia .................................. 66 O00 km2<br />
Botswana .................................. 73 O00 km2<br />
Mozambique ................................ 79 500 km2<br />
Rounded <strong>of</strong>f, the catchment area is situated beyween 220 and 260<br />
South and 269 and 350 East, its highest altitude being 2.300 metres near the<br />
city <strong>of</strong> Lydenburg.<br />
In National territory, situated between parallels 210 and 250 South and<br />
meridians 310 and 359 East, the basin has to the North, that <strong>of</strong> the River Save,<br />
to the South, that <strong>of</strong> the River Incomati and to the East, that <strong>of</strong> the River<br />
Govuro, and a coastal strip where a few closed catchment areas are found from<br />
which the water-sources accumulate in lakes.<br />
In Mozambique there is no noticeable irregularity, this occurring o<strong>nl</strong>y<br />
in the limiting zone to the south <strong>of</strong> the Limpopo, in a reduced area <strong>with</strong> eleva-<br />
tions <strong>of</strong> 400 metres.<br />
In its total length the average height is <strong>of</strong> 840 metres, its being 977,<br />
964 and 950 metres, respectively in Beitbridge, Mapai and Trigo de Morais.<br />
The average slopes <strong>of</strong> the course <strong>of</strong> the water are:<br />
Upper stream ....................................... 2, 50 dlan<br />
Central stream ..................................... 1,80 m/km<br />
Lower stream ....................................... 0,Og m/km<br />
The Limpopo is one <strong>of</strong> the most important rivers <strong>of</strong> South Africa and<br />
Mozambique and, as happens <strong>with</strong> the Incomati River, it is contained in the<br />
lower part <strong>of</strong> the great drainage area, which includes more than half <strong>of</strong> the<br />
Transvaal and a considerable part <strong>of</strong> South Rhodesia.<br />
./.
143<br />
The Limpopo is a strange river, very changeable and capricious, perhaps<br />
due to the influence <strong>of</strong> the dissimilarity <strong>of</strong> its hydrographical basin; its vol5<br />
me <strong>of</strong> water is extremely variable as in dry weather it is very reduced and during<br />
the rainy season, reaches heights <strong>of</strong> 7 metres which flood large areas <strong>of</strong> ground<br />
in the central and lower courses. The Limpopo River, when it enters our territory,<br />
has already a definite bed, where it has three large tributaires: on the<br />
right bank, the Elephants River, and on the left bank, the Nuanetzi and the<br />
Changane; it is to these that it owes its permanent volume <strong>of</strong> water for the<br />
flow from those joining it, its principal supplier being the Elephants River, a<br />
water-source which crosses a region <strong>of</strong> high rains, its hydrographic basin having<br />
a somewhat impermeable geological configuration.<br />
It belongs to the hydrographical system <strong>of</strong> the African Continent and it<br />
is <strong>of</strong> the torrential rate <strong>of</strong> permanent volume.<br />
The course <strong>of</strong> the water which takes the name <strong>of</strong> Limpopo River, is formed<br />
by the junction <strong>of</strong> the Marico and Crocodile Rivers which have their sources at<br />
an altitude <strong>of</strong> 1.500 metres to the west <strong>of</strong> the city <strong>of</strong> Pretoria.<br />
The principal tributaries <strong>of</strong> the right bank, all <strong>with</strong> their sources in<br />
the Transvaal, from the source to the mouth <strong>of</strong> the Limpopo River are as follow:<br />
River Matablas , Pongola, Palala, Sand, Pafuri (flowing in close to Pafuri,<br />
already in Portuguese territory) and the Elephants River, the largest and most<br />
important which joins it <strong>with</strong>in Mozambique after some 110 kms. On its left bank,<br />
the Limpopo receives large courses <strong>of</strong> water all <strong>with</strong> their sources in Rhodesia,<br />
the principal ones being:<br />
River Notwani, Macloutsie, Tuli, Umtzingwane, Bubye, Nuanetzi (which has<br />
already flown about 50 kms in Mozambique) and the River Changane.<br />
1.2 - Geological Aspect, Soils and Vegetation:<br />
In the Limpopo basin, formations are found which belong to different<br />
systems, such as Karroo, <strong>Water</strong>berg, Primitive System.<br />
The basin in South African and Rhodesian territory seems to be constituted<br />
<strong>of</strong> basaltic lava, Serie Ecca, siliceous detrital rocks (sandstone) <strong>of</strong> brown<br />
red and purple colours, formations <strong>of</strong> conglomerates, graphite and gneiss.<br />
In Mozambique, the basin is mai<strong>nl</strong>y constituted <strong>of</strong> sedimentary formations.<br />
In a narrow area near the border, volcanic rocks are found, in the upper<br />
course <strong>of</strong> the Limpopo River and Elephants River formations <strong>of</strong> the Cretaceous Era,<br />
in the rest, Quaternary formations <strong>with</strong> alluvium, sandstone, calcarium and sand<br />
deposits.<br />
./.
144<br />
The vegetation in foreign territory is mai<strong>nl</strong>y constituted <strong>of</strong> bush and<br />
grass, <strong>of</strong> great density in the highlands, and mixed bush and grass plains. In<br />
Mozambique, the vegetation is <strong>of</strong> the bushy type and plains <strong>with</strong> some trees,<br />
level grass plains and large stretches <strong>of</strong> grassy land.<br />
The predominant soils in our territory are: sandy in the coastal area,<br />
salty in the river vales, soils <strong>of</strong> mananga in the lower Changane and conglome-<br />
rates.<br />
1.3 - Climate:<br />
In respect to the area situated in Mozambique, it appears that the<br />
average annual temperatures are practically the same in almost all the basin,<br />
being 240 C <strong>with</strong> the exception <strong>of</strong> the north eastern side, where it goes as low<br />
as 220 C.<br />
On the coastal and north-eastern areas, the average maximum daily tem-<br />
peratures are 300 and 320. C and in the central area 34Q.C.<br />
The average temperature in the hottest month is 280 C. and the lowest<br />
260.c., the annual variation <strong>of</strong> these averages being between 60 and 9Q.C.<br />
The average temperature in the coldest month is 20% in the central<br />
area, and 18% in thê rest, while the coastal area has an average minimum in<br />
the coldest month <strong>of</strong> 12%.<br />
The annual average relative humidity in the central area is 65%, increa2<br />
ing to the north and south to reach the highest rate <strong>of</strong> 75%.<br />
According to the classification <strong>of</strong> Koppen, the climate <strong>of</strong> the basin is<br />
in general the dryness <strong>of</strong> steppes <strong>with</strong> a dry season in winter, dryness <strong>of</strong> the<br />
desert in the area <strong>of</strong> Pafuri, dryness <strong>of</strong> the steppes in the south <strong>of</strong> the basin,<br />
and in the coastal area, tropical raininess <strong>of</strong> a savanna.<br />
The predominant winds in the months <strong>of</strong> September to February are those<br />
from the East and, during the other months, almost entirely <strong>with</strong> predominance<br />
from the West.<br />
In the whole basin, one finds that it is situated between the isothermics<br />
<strong>of</strong> 240 and 170 <strong>with</strong> the average temperatures <strong>of</strong> 200, 2003 and 2002 respectively<br />
for the areas <strong>of</strong> Beitbridge, Mapai and Trigo de Morais.<br />
1.4 - Hydrological Occupation:<br />
Both the South African Republic and Rhodesia have a network <strong>of</strong> udometric<br />
and hydrometric stations which, for the African Continent, can be considered<br />
dense: one pluviometer for 200 km2 and one hydrometric station for 4 o00 h2.
145<br />
There are readings from 31 Rhodesian udometric stations and from 90<br />
South African posts, the majority <strong>of</strong> which <strong>with</strong> more than 30 years <strong>of</strong> existence.<br />
The more significant hydrometric stations in Rhodesia and South African<br />
not o<strong>nl</strong>y for the area they cover and their locality, but for the extension <strong>of</strong><br />
their records, are:<br />
Rhodes ia :<br />
South Africa:<br />
- River Tuli - 4 144 km2<br />
- Unzimgwane River - 2 533 km2<br />
- Bubye River - 8 029 lan2<br />
A3 MO7 - Eerste Poor - Groot Marico Rivier<br />
A2 M25 - Hardekool Bulti - Crocodile River<br />
A5 MO2 - Vischgat - Palala River<br />
A5 MO3 - Oxenham Ranch - Limpopo River<br />
A7 MO4 - Beitbridge - Limpopo River<br />
A7 MO3 - Zamenkomst - Sand River<br />
A9 MO1 - Schuinshoogte - Luvuhu River<br />
- Liverpool - Olifants Rivier<br />
- (354) - Olifants Rivier<br />
- Manorvlei - Letaba River<br />
- Letaba Ranch - LetkaRiver<br />
- Driehoek - Blyde River<br />
- 8 588 h2 - 21 i09 lan2<br />
- 2 341 h2 - 97 850 km2<br />
-180 O00 h 2<br />
- 6 900 km2<br />
- 912 lan2<br />
- 42 352 km2<br />
- 27 928 km2<br />
- 668 km2<br />
- 4 716 h2 - 2 199 km2<br />
In Mozambique, there are 33 udometric stations, some <strong>with</strong> a significant<br />
period <strong>of</strong> regular readings, and 12 stations for the measurement <strong>of</strong> water volu-<br />
me, some equipped <strong>with</strong> linmographs, the most significant <strong>of</strong> those <strong>with</strong> regular<br />
readings being those <strong>of</strong> Maçuço (66 O00 km2) and Tiobine (68 450 km2) on the<br />
Elephants River; Vila Trigo de Morais (340 O00 km2), Pafuri (235 930 km2),<br />
Mapai (246 O00 km2), Mohambe (342 780 h2), João Belo (407 970 km2) on the<br />
Limpopo River, and Chibuto (43 200 km2) on the Changane River.<br />
As regards evaporation, there are 6 U.S. Class A Tina evaporemeters in<br />
Rhodesia, 20 Standard Symons in South Africa, and 5 U.S. Class A Tina evapore-<br />
meters and 7 Piche atmometers in Mozambique.<br />
./.
146<br />
Also in the Portuguese part <strong>of</strong> the basin are 3 lysimetric stations, 3 cli<br />
matological stations, 2 agronomic-climatological posts and 4 climatological posts.<br />
2 - RAINS<br />
2.1 - Introduction:<br />
From the analysis <strong>of</strong> the normal isohyetal map, it is noted that the basin<br />
is <strong>with</strong>in the ishoyetal extremes <strong>of</strong> 400 and 1.500 mm., the monthly distribution<br />
<strong>of</strong> rainfall being divided in a deficient way throughout the year,<strong>with</strong> a concentrg<br />
tion <strong>of</strong> about 85% <strong>of</strong> the total during the months from October to March inclusive.<br />
To determine the average annual rainfall in the Limpopo basin as far as<br />
Mapai, three methods were used:- <strong>of</strong> the rainy districts; <strong>of</strong> the area <strong>of</strong> influes<br />
ce and the isohyetal figures.<br />
2.2 - The method <strong>of</strong> the rainy districts<br />
The South African Republic is divided into restricted zones by rains <strong>of</strong><br />
average equality, certain rainy districts under the same principle also dividing<br />
the areas <strong>of</strong> Rhodesia.<br />
In accordance <strong>with</strong> the udometric records for the period 1914/15 to 1963/<br />
/64 (50 years), the average annual rainfall figures were determined in respect<br />
to the basin, taking into account the fall in each district.<br />
From the period <strong>of</strong> 50 years, the average annual rainfall arrived at was<br />
579 mm, its having been 582, 566 and 560 mm respectively during the past 10, 15<br />
and 25 years.<br />
2.3 - Method <strong>of</strong> Area <strong>of</strong> Influence<br />
In accordance <strong>with</strong> the records existing for the period 1954/55 to 1963/<br />
/64 (10 years) and using the 71 udometric posts, the average annual rainfall was<br />
determined, the figure obtained being 514 mm.<br />
2.4 - Isohyetal Method<br />
With the normal figures - 30 years - recorded at the udometric posts,.<br />
isohyetal curves were interpolated, the areas between the adjacent isohyetal<br />
figures being thereafter measured.<br />
The average figure for the rainfall in the basin thus obtained was 504m.
2.5 - Correlation <strong>of</strong> the methods:<br />
147<br />
For the common period <strong>of</strong> 1954/55 to 1963/64 and 1955/56 to 1963/64 <strong>of</strong><br />
which the average annual rainfall figures are available, the correlation between<br />
the two methods was determined, the following equations having been obtained:<br />
1954/55 to 1963/64 - x = 0,94y + 99<br />
1955/56 to 1963/64 - x = 1,02y + 62<br />
which give a lineal relation between them, the rates <strong>of</strong> the correlation being<br />
very significant (0,98 and 0,96) the figures arrived at showing o<strong>nl</strong>y small dif-<br />
f erences .<br />
2.6 - Resumé:<br />
ANNUAL RAINFfiLL<br />
Averages :<br />
3 - RUNOFF<br />
Period <strong>of</strong> 50 years ........... 579 mm<br />
Period <strong>of</strong> 25 years ........... 560 mm<br />
Period <strong>of</strong> 15 years ........... 566 mm<br />
Period <strong>of</strong> 10 years ........... 582 mm<br />
Rainiest year ................ 971 mm (1924/25)<br />
Rainiest year w/lOO year occrence<br />
........................ 1 101 mm<br />
Driest year .................. 355 mm (1963/64)<br />
Driest year w/lOO year OCCUT-<br />
rence ........................ 290 mm<br />
3.1 - Elementary Principles:<br />
In view <strong>of</strong> there not being any measurements <strong>of</strong> the volume <strong>of</strong> the Limpopo<br />
River in Portuguese territory, it was necessary to resort to comparative studies,<br />
taking as a basis the specific flowage in the various hydrometric stations,<br />
existing upstream in the region <strong>of</strong> Mapai.<br />
./*
148<br />
3.2 - Details <strong>of</strong> the Study<br />
Barrows, in his book "<strong>Water</strong> Power Ehgeneering" stated that "it is <strong>of</strong>ten<br />
possible to consider, <strong>with</strong>out serious error, that the specific volume <strong>of</strong> a river<br />
is similar to the successive contours along the same river".<br />
also advises that, whenever possible, comparisons and corrections should be esta<br />
blished, not o<strong>nl</strong>y in respect to the rainfall, but also to the altitude, slopes,<br />
constitution and the rock formations <strong>of</strong> the soil.<br />
The same author<br />
Based on the measurements made at the Hydrometric stations <strong>of</strong> the Repu-<br />
blic <strong>of</strong> South Africa and Rhodesia which cover 195 841 km2, 79,6% <strong>of</strong> the respective<br />
basin in the area <strong>of</strong> the barrage <strong>of</strong> Mapai, we took into account the specific run-<br />
<strong>of</strong>f year by year and we calculated the specific run<strong>of</strong>f <strong>of</strong> the locality under<br />
study.<br />
Since 1963, efforts have been made to estimate the average annual run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
always using the methods <strong>of</strong> the specific volume but adopting various criteria.<br />
The average annual figure obtained for the period <strong>of</strong> 12 years was 3 095<br />
million cubic metres, which corresponds to the specific run<strong>of</strong>f <strong>of</strong> 12 580 m3<br />
k2 - 1 (chart attached).<br />
Thus we have:<br />
Study in 1963 ( 6 years) specific run<strong>of</strong>f 13 700 m<br />
3<br />
(k2)-1<br />
Study in 1965 ( 7 years) specific run<strong>of</strong>f 13 658 m3 (k2)-1<br />
Present study (12 years) specific run<strong>of</strong>f 12 583 m 3 (k2)-1<br />
If we observe the sequence <strong>of</strong> the years in which measurements existed<br />
for the 3 studies realised, it will be noted that the period <strong>of</strong> 12 years includes<br />
an excessively dry year (1963-1964) and one high run<strong>of</strong>f (1966-67) while there<br />
were no measurements taken in 1965-66 at the fundamental station <strong>of</strong> study (Beit-<br />
bridge) due to the hydrometric station having been under water (floods in Februa-<br />
ry, 1966) and as a result <strong>of</strong> which, the figure now obtained is necessarily defec-<br />
tive.<br />
The 1970 study covering a period <strong>of</strong> 15 years, places the specific average<br />
3 2<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f as 13 O00 m (k )-l.<br />
For the 246 O00 km2 <strong>of</strong> the river basin, the figures obtained for the<br />
average annual run<strong>of</strong>f in the region <strong>of</strong> Mapai are respectively as follow:<br />
1963 study .............. 3 370 million m 3<br />
1965 study .............. 3 360 million m 3<br />
1970 study .............. 3 200 million m 3<br />
Present study ........... 3 095 million m<br />
3<br />
./.
149<br />
Any <strong>of</strong> these figures fall <strong>with</strong>in the admissible limits based on the rate<br />
<strong>of</strong> the run<strong>of</strong>f observed at the stations <strong>of</strong> Beitbridge and Vila Trigo de Morais,<br />
the average <strong>of</strong> which is respectively 0,015 and 0,026.<br />
Thus for a figure <strong>of</strong> 3 O00 million m3 and for the average rainfall <strong>of</strong><br />
579 nun., run<strong>of</strong>f coefficient is 0,021, which is <strong>with</strong>in the observed limits.<br />
Using the method <strong>of</strong> Coutagne o<strong>nl</strong>y for the average annual figures, for<br />
a rainfall <strong>of</strong> 579 mm as the average over 50 years, we arrive at a run<strong>of</strong>f <strong>of</strong><br />
2 969 10 6 m 3 and for 582 nun as the average for the past 10 years, the figure<br />
<strong>of</strong> 2 999,7 10<br />
6<br />
m<br />
3 .<br />
Observing and trying all these ways and means, we shall adopt chart<br />
attached hereto for the annual run<strong>of</strong>f because, as they arise from direct mea-<br />
surements, they fall <strong>with</strong>in all the estimated figures.<br />
3.3 - Monthly Distribution<br />
The monthly distribution is based on a hydrometric station in the Repu-<br />
blic <strong>of</strong> South Africa (Beitbridge), which already has years <strong>of</strong> sufficient read-<br />
ings, its area being much like that <strong>of</strong> Mapai.<br />
Thus we haïe:<br />
4 - FLOODS<br />
October ................ 0,5%<br />
November ................ 0,6%<br />
December ................ 4,6%<br />
January ................ 25,%<br />
February ................ 33,8%<br />
March ................ i8,i%<br />
April ................ 8,s<br />
May ................ 4,3%<br />
June ................ i,%<br />
July ................ 1,1%<br />
August ................ o, 9%<br />
-<br />
September ................ 0,3% 10%<br />
The River Limpopo is typically torrential and as such, not o<strong>nl</strong>y dries<br />
during consecutive months as it is susceptible to exceptional floods.<br />
Many records <strong>of</strong> the volume <strong>of</strong> floods have been compiled in the Republic<br />
<strong>of</strong> South Africa since 1915, always based on specific volumes and they obtained<br />
. /.
150<br />
measured details which extended to the area <strong>of</strong> Mapai, gave us the figures <strong>of</strong><br />
16 925 m3/s (1933) and 12 792 m3/s (1966).<br />
Thus, using various formulas, one can estimate the volume <strong>of</strong> floods for<br />
return periods <strong>of</strong> 100 and 200 years.<br />
100 years 200 years<br />
<strong>Water</strong> affairs formula ............ 13 243 14 963 m3/s<br />
Mimoso Loureiro formula ........ 14 304<br />
18 375 II<br />
Fuller formula ................. 19 763 21 284 11<br />
(Period 34 years and specific<br />
volumes measured)<br />
Larivaille formula ............... - 15 375 'I<br />
The estimate is thus very difficult and depends a great deal on the<br />
type <strong>of</strong> barrage to be adopted.<br />
The hydrograph <strong>of</strong> a maximum flood was also determined, based on the<br />
formula <strong>of</strong> Giandotti in the calculation <strong>of</strong> the times <strong>of</strong> concentration <strong>of</strong> the<br />
peak and <strong>of</strong> the swell <strong>of</strong> the flood, and on the hydrographs <strong>of</strong> the floods record-<br />
ed at the border (Pafuri) during the years 1955, 1958, 1959, 1966 and 1967.<br />
It was verified that, in the flood <strong>of</strong> 1966, there was agreement in the<br />
calculated and observed times, because the calculation placed the figure at<br />
153 hours and from observation, at 150 hours for the time <strong>of</strong> concentration,<br />
there being, however, a difference in the time <strong>of</strong> the swell <strong>of</strong> 600 <strong>with</strong> 724<br />
hours (sketch attached).<br />
5- Evaporation and Solid flows<br />
Using the details measured in Rhodesia, South Africa and Mozambique,<br />
we can place the resulting evaporation at Mapi as 1 344 mm. As to solid volumes,<br />
the figures are few and vary greatly; as for the rest, definitely, confix<br />
med by the complex composition <strong>of</strong> the hydrographic basin, as for the same volu -<br />
me one obtain 21,8 kg/s and 97,l kg/s, <strong>with</strong>out any meaning.
0<br />
N<br />
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n<br />
N<br />
151
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4<br />
3<br />
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4<br />
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2 n<br />
r<br />
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1
Relation <strong>of</strong> hydrological programs <strong>of</strong> the Center <strong>of</strong> Hydrographic Studies<br />
for complete studies <strong>of</strong> hydraulic resources <strong>with</strong> insufficient data<br />
Dr. Rafael HERAS<br />
1 LIS TA Lista las ochenta columnas de las fichas.<br />
The programme lists the eighty columns <strong>of</strong> the cards.<br />
2 LIS 65 Lista las ochenta columnas de las fichas, poniendo en la<br />
cabecera de la pagina las columnas numeradas y saltan-<br />
do página cada 65 fichas.<br />
It lists eighty columns <strong>of</strong> the card, putting on the heading<br />
<strong>of</strong> the page the numered colum and skipping a page after<br />
every 65 cards.<br />
3 LIFLA Lista fichas con flags.<br />
It lists carde <strong>with</strong> flags.
156<br />
4 LIMO1 Lista cinta de papel del limni'grafo.<br />
It lists ribbon <strong>of</strong> the limnigraphe.<br />
5 LICAN Listado de longitudinales.<br />
Longitudinal listing.<br />
6 LIGUI Listado de transversales.<br />
Transversal listing.<br />
7 LGMET Listado de datos geográficos.<br />
Listing <strong>of</strong> geographical data.<br />
8 LPMET Lista la cuenca, número de estación, aflo y datos de prg<br />
cipitaciones mensuales.<br />
It lists the basin, number <strong>of</strong> station, year and monthly<br />
rainfall data.<br />
9 LFRNT Lista cinta de papel perforada en código FERRANTI.<br />
It lists perforated ribbon in FERRANTI code.
10 LI-C-CA Lista cabeceras de los canales de aforos.<br />
It lists the headings <strong>of</strong> the channels <strong>of</strong> valuation.<br />
11 L-NI-24H Lista precipitaciones máximas en 24 horas.<br />
It lists the maximum rainfall in 24 hours.<br />
12 LTVP Lista tablas de vertidos probables,<br />
It lists tables <strong>of</strong> probable downpour.<br />
13 LTAC Lista las tablas de alturas-caudales.<br />
It lists tables <strong>of</strong> altitudes-flows.<br />
157<br />
14 TAVAL Lista los valores de las curvas alturas-caudales y está<br />
preparado para obtener valores que no figuren en las ta<br />
blas, interpolando linealmente entre los dos puntos más<br />
próximos.<br />
It lists the values <strong>of</strong> altitudes-flows lines and it is<br />
prepared to obtain values not appearing in the tables,<br />
by linear interpolation between the closest points.
158<br />
15<br />
16<br />
TAB- 1<br />
TAB-2<br />
17 TAB- 3<br />
18 TAB- 4<br />
Este programa lista, de las cinco fichas de que consta<br />
la información de cada pozo, lo siguiente: número de pg<br />
zo, fechas de muestreo, número de muestras (laborato-<br />
rio), latitud, longitud, nivel de agua/l, columna de agua,<br />
horas de bombeo, caudal en Ils., procedencia, número<br />
de laboratorio, fecha del análisis, temperatura del aire,<br />
temperatura del agua e indicador.<br />
This programme lists the five cards which contains the<br />
information <strong>of</strong> each well, as the following: number <strong>of</strong><br />
well, dates <strong>of</strong> sampling, number <strong>of</strong> samples (laboratory),<br />
latitude, longitude, level <strong>of</strong> water/l, column <strong>of</strong> water,<br />
hours <strong>of</strong> pumping, flow in Ils., origin, laboratory number,<br />
date <strong>of</strong> analysis, temperature <strong>of</strong> the air, temperature <strong>of</strong><br />
water and indicator.<br />
Lista: número de pozo, fecha de muestreo, calcio, mag-<br />
nesio, manganeso, sodio, potasio, cloruro, sulfato, fluo<br />
ruro, silice, fosfato y carbonato.<br />
It lists: number <strong>of</strong> well, date <strong>of</strong> sampling, calcium,<br />
manganese, sodium, potassium, chloride, sulphate,<br />
fluoride, silica, phosphate and carbonate.<br />
Lista: número de pozo, fecha de muestreo, bicarbonato,<br />
nitrito, nitrato, amoniaco, boro, hierro, pH, resistivi-<br />
dad, gravedad especifica, sólidos disueltos, litio, estrog<br />
cio, ni’quel.<br />
It lists: number <strong>of</strong> well, date <strong>of</strong> sampling, bicarbonate,<br />
nitrite, nitrate, boron, ammonia, iron, pH, resistivity,<br />
gravity/m, solid in dissolution, lithium, strontium, -<br />
nickel.<br />
Lista: nimero de pozo, fecha de muestreo, cobalto, iodo,<br />
bromo, molibdeno, zinc, plomo, cromo, cobre, vanadio,<br />
mer curio, ar sé nico.
159<br />
It lists: number <strong>of</strong> well, date <strong>of</strong> sampling, cobalt, iodine,<br />
bromine, molibdenum, zinc, plumbum, chromium, cop-<br />
per, vanadium, mercury and arsenic.<br />
19 TAB-5 Lista: número de pozo, fecha de muestreo, pH, resisti-<br />
vidad, gas carbónico libre, oxigeno disuelto, dureza, dg<br />
reza (sin carbonatos), alcalinidad, T. A., HC03.<br />
It lists: number <strong>of</strong> well, date <strong>of</strong> sampling, pH, resistivity,<br />
free carbonic gas, oxygen disolved, hardness (<strong>with</strong>out<br />
carbonates), alkalinity, T. A., HC03.<br />
20 TNFAG Tablas de interpolación polinómica de cuarto grado.<br />
Tables <strong>of</strong> polynomical interpolation <strong>of</strong> the fourth grade.<br />
21 TANG Tablas de senos, cosenos y tangentes.<br />
Tables <strong>of</strong> sine, cosine, tangents.<br />
22 TNUA Mete en disco tablas de números aleatorios.<br />
It puts in the disk tables <strong>of</strong> fortuitous numbers.<br />
23 T-V-P Mete en disco tablas de datos hidrológicos.<br />
It puts in the disk tables <strong>of</strong> hydrological data.
160<br />
24 T-EVA<br />
25 EN-PRT<br />
26 SAPRI<br />
27 PDPRC<br />
28 PC 128<br />
Mete en disco tablas de evaporaciones.<br />
It puts in the disk tables <strong>of</strong> evaporation.<br />
Dada una serie de estaciones, almacena en disco dichas<br />
estaciones.<br />
It stores in the disk stations which are previously given.<br />
Obtiene un listado de las estaciones almacenadas en disco.<br />
It obtains a listing <strong>of</strong> stations stored in the disk.<br />
Perfora datos con anos consecutivos para los diversos<br />
programas de regulaciones.<br />
It perforates data <strong>with</strong> consecutive years for the different<br />
programs <strong>of</strong> regulations.<br />
Dada una serie de caudales diarios con formato 12 F 6.2,<br />
los perfora con formato 9 F 8.3, para ser utilizados por<br />
el programa I~TCDAP".<br />
Given a series <strong>of</strong> daily flows <strong>with</strong> format 12 F 6. 2, it<br />
perforates them <strong>with</strong> format 9 F 8. 3, to be used by the<br />
program I'TDFAF~~.
29 PRD-I Ordena un máximo de 1.000 datos, de mayor a menor,<br />
con formato 12 F 6.2.<br />
161<br />
It puts in order a maximum <strong>of</strong> 1.000 data, in descendent<br />
order, <strong>with</strong> format 12 F 6. 2.<br />
30 PRD-2 Igual que el anterior, pero con formato 9 F 8.3.<br />
The same as above, but <strong>with</strong> format 9 F 8.3.<br />
31 PRD-3 Ordena números en coma fija, de mayor a menor.<br />
It puts in order numbers <strong>with</strong> fixed point, in descendent<br />
order.<br />
32 DUPLP Duplica las ochenta columnas de las fichas.<br />
It duplicates the eighty columns <strong>of</strong> the cards.<br />
33 DUP-Mp Duplica las ochenta columnas, modificando la columna<br />
que se desee.<br />
It duplicates the eighty columns, modifying the column<br />
that is wished.<br />
34 SUMNU Suma o resta un número a una serie de datos mensuales.<br />
It adds or deducts a number from a series <strong>of</strong> monthly data.
162<br />
35 SUMRE Dadas dos series de datos mensuales, las suma o las<br />
resta.<br />
it adds or deducts two series <strong>of</strong> monthly data which are<br />
given.<br />
36 SUMAR Suma series de datos hidrológicos.<br />
37 MULTI<br />
38 MULTA<br />
39 MUL 12<br />
It adds series <strong>of</strong> hydrological data.<br />
Multiplica series de datos por un número fijo y obtiene<br />
el listado, así como las fichas perforadas, con estos nue<br />
vos valores.<br />
It multiplies series <strong>of</strong> data by a fixed number and it<br />
obtains the listing, in the same way as the perforated<br />
cards, <strong>with</strong> this new values.<br />
Multiplica los 12 números de la primera fila por cada<br />
uno de los datos, los pone en orden decreciente y los lis<br />
ta en 12 columnas.<br />
It multiplies the 12 numbers <strong>of</strong> the first row by each one<br />
<strong>of</strong> the data, it puts them decreasing order and it lists -<br />
them in 12 columns.<br />
Multiplica los datos mensuales por el número que ocupa<br />
el lugar correspondiente a ese mes en la primera ficha,<br />
lista y perfora.<br />
It multiplies the monthly data by the number that occupies<br />
the corresponding place <strong>of</strong> that month in the first card, it<br />
lists and Derforates.
40 MULAN<br />
41 MRS 12<br />
42 MA TEN<br />
43 SECUA<br />
44 DIS -KM<br />
163<br />
Multiplica los datos mensuales de cada ano por el &me-<br />
ro que ocupa el lugar correspondiente a ese ano en las<br />
primeras fichas que lee.<br />
It multiplies the monthly data <strong>of</strong> each year by the number<br />
that occupies the corresponding place to that year in the<br />
first cards that is read.<br />
Multiplica, suma o resta dos o una series de datos sin<br />
limitación.<br />
It multiplies, adds or deducts two or one series <strong>of</strong> data<br />
<strong>with</strong>out limitation.<br />
Eleva una matriz a la potencia enésima.<br />
It elevates a matrix to the n power.<br />
Resuelve un sistema de ecuaciones (40 como máximo).<br />
It solves a system <strong>of</strong> equations (40 as maximum).<br />
Dada la situación geográfica de una serie de estaciones<br />
por su latitud y longitud, este programa selecciona los<br />
grupos de estaciones a comparar con el criterio de que<br />
las distancias entre las estaciones sean menores de una<br />
cantidad fija.<br />
Given the geographical position <strong>of</strong> a series Of stations by<br />
their latitude and longitude, this programme chooses the<br />
group <strong>of</strong> stations to be compared <strong>with</strong> the criterium that<br />
the distance among the stations be smaller than a fixed<br />
quantity.
164<br />
45 LISDA Lista series de datos mensuales (sin limitación de exten<br />
sión), imprime cabecera y calcula la suma anual y las -<br />
medias mensuales.<br />
It lists series <strong>of</strong> monthly data (<strong>with</strong>out limitation in its<br />
scope), prints heading and computes the yearly sum and<br />
the monthly averages.<br />
46 MAXLL Dados los valores de precipitación total mensual, dias<br />
de lluvia y los valores máximos en 24 horas, obtiene los<br />
máximos en 24 horas y los dilas de lluvia a escala anual.<br />
Given the values <strong>of</strong> total monthly rainfall, days <strong>of</strong> rain<br />
and the maximum values in 24 hours, it obtains the -<br />
maximum in 24 hours and the days <strong>of</strong> rain in a yearly<br />
s cale.<br />
47 INT-ES Dados los caudales medios mensuales y anuales, la apoy<br />
tación media de los años precedentes y el caudal máximo<br />
(medios diarios e instantáneo y la fecha), obtiene cauda-<br />
les medios anual y mensual, caudal y aportación mensual.<br />
Deduce la aportación y caudal anual, caudal medio y apor<br />
tación media de la serie anual.<br />
Given the monthly and annual average flows, the average<br />
afford <strong>of</strong> the preceding years and the maximlim flow (daily<br />
and instantaneous averages and the date), it obtains year<br />
ly and monthly average flows, monthly flow and afford. It<br />
deducts yearly afford and flow, average flow and the aver<br />
age afford <strong>of</strong> the yearly series.<br />
48 INT-EM Dado el volumen embalsado, aportación de salida y media<br />
precedente, obtiene entradas y salidas, reserva, aporta-<br />
ción del año, aportación de entrada y salida, media de e;<br />
trada y salida (aportación y caudal).
49<br />
50<br />
51<br />
INT -CA<br />
ADfDB- 1<br />
ADfDB-2<br />
165<br />
Given the stored volume, afford <strong>of</strong> exit and the preceding<br />
average, it obtains entries and exits, reserve, yearly -<br />
afford, afford <strong>of</strong> entry and exit, average <strong>of</strong> entry and -<br />
exit (afford and flow).<br />
Realiza la misma función, pero sin el caudal máximo<br />
instantáneo.<br />
It performs the same function, but <strong>with</strong>out the maximum<br />
instantaneous flow.<br />
Dadas las series de datos hidrológicos de un conjunto de<br />
estaciones a escala anual, mensual, etc., forma "esta-<br />
ción tipo" (media aritmética de las estaciones de cada<br />
grupo) y a continuación compara cada una de las estacio<br />
nes con su "estación tipo", acumulando las series y dag<br />
do, además de las sumas acumuladas, la relación entre<br />
las acumulaciones de cada estación con las acumulacio-<br />
nes de la "estación tipo".<br />
Given the series <strong>of</strong> hydrological data <strong>of</strong> an assembly <strong>of</strong><br />
stations at yearly scale, monthly scale, etc., it forms<br />
''type station!' (arithmetical mean <strong>of</strong> the stations in each<br />
group) and afterwards compares each stations <strong>with</strong> its<br />
'hype station", accumulating the series and giving besides<br />
the accumulated sums, the relation among the accumula-<br />
tion <strong>of</strong> each station <strong>with</strong> those <strong>of</strong> "type station".<br />
Este programa es análogo al anterior, pero no utiliza -<br />
estación tipo, haciendo todas las comparaciones posibles<br />
en cada grupo.<br />
This programme is analogous to the preceding one, but<br />
it does not use type station, performing all the possible<br />
comparisons in each group.
166<br />
52 A-AC-96 Acumula datos hidrológicos mensuales (de 1 en 1 hasta<br />
96 en 96 meses). Imprime 96 cuadros.<br />
It accumulates hydrological monthly data (from 1 to 1 up<br />
to 96 in 96 months). It prints 96 charts.<br />
53 AC-96-P Este programa es análogo al anterior, pero perfora los<br />
resultados en ficha.<br />
This programme is analogous to the preceding one, but<br />
it perforates the results in card.<br />
54 AM-AC 1 Acumula aportaciones mensuales y ordena de menor a<br />
mayor .<br />
It accumulates monthly affords putting in ascendent order.<br />
55 AM-C 96 Dada una serie de datos hidrológicos mensuales, acumu-<br />
la de 1 a 96 meses consecutivos, y los ordena de menor<br />
a mayor.<br />
Given a series <strong>of</strong> hydrological monthly data, it accum;I-<br />
lates from 1 to 96 consecutive months, and putting them<br />
in ascendent order.<br />
56 AC-T~D Acumula todos los valores de una serie.<br />
It accumulates all the values <strong>of</strong> a series.
57 AD~BP Dibuja en el Plotter los diagramas de las acumulaciones<br />
dobles.<br />
167<br />
It designs in the Plotter the diagrams <strong>of</strong> the double - -<br />
accumula tion.<br />
58 ALAOA Dadas las aportaciones diarias, las lista, ordena de mg<br />
nor a mayor y las acumula.<br />
Given the daily affords, it lists, puts in ascendent order<br />
and accumulates them.<br />
59 TCDAP Dada una serie de caudales diarios, la transforma en -<br />
aportaciones diarias.<br />
Given a series <strong>of</strong> daily flow, this programme transforms<br />
them in daily affords.<br />
60 TCAP~ Dada una serie de caudales mensuales, la transforma en<br />
aportaciones mensuales.<br />
Given a series <strong>of</strong> monthly flows, this series is transform<br />
ed in monthly affords.<br />
61 TAPPC Dada una serie de aportaciones mensuales, la transforma<br />
en caudales mensuales.<br />
Given a series <strong>of</strong> monthly affords, it transforms them in<br />
monthly flows.
168<br />
62 TANAD Dada una serie de aportaciones naturales diarias, la -<br />
transforma en aportaciones derivables diarias.<br />
Given a serles <strong>of</strong> daily natural affords, the programme<br />
transforms them into daily derivable affords.<br />
63 C-C-D-ES Dada una serie de caudales diarios, obtiene los caudales<br />
derivados diarios en m3/s., medias y aportaciones men_<br />
suales, caudales clasificados, aportación y caudal total<br />
del año.<br />
Given a series <strong>of</strong> daily flows, the programme obtains the<br />
daily derivable flows in CU. m/s., averages and monthly<br />
affords, classified flows, afford and total flow <strong>of</strong> the year.<br />
64 C -C -D-CA Realiza la misma función que el programa anterior, pero<br />
con caudales mensuales.<br />
It performs the same function as the preceding programme,<br />
but <strong>with</strong> monthly flows.<br />
65 C-C-D-EM Dados los volúmenes y salidas diarias de un embalse, ob<br />
tiene las reservas diarias (Hm3), caudales diarios (sali-<br />
das en m3/s. ), media mensual, salida y entrada mensual,<br />
evaporacion y un resumen anual (caudales medios, salida,<br />
entrada, evaporación).<br />
Given the volumes and the daily exits <strong>of</strong> a reservoir, the<br />
programme obtains the daily reserves (CU. Hm), daily<br />
flows (exits in CU. m/s), monthly average, monthly entry<br />
and exit, evaporation and an annual summary (averages<br />
flows, entry, exit, evaporation).
169<br />
66 C-C-D-E1 Dados los datos de alturas de escala diaria y los valores<br />
de las curvas alturas-caudales de una estación, calcula<br />
los caudales diarios de dicha estación. Los caudales que<br />
no figuran en las tablas se calculan interpolando lineal-<br />
mente entre los dos más próximos.<br />
Además del caudal diario, este programa obtiene los cag<br />
dales máximos y mínimos, los caudales medios mensua-<br />
les y las aportaciones mensuales.<br />
Given the daily scale heights and the values <strong>of</strong> the height-<br />
flow charts <strong>of</strong> a station, the programme computes the --<br />
daily flows <strong>of</strong> said station. The flows that are not appear-<br />
ing in the tables, are calculated by linear interpolation -<br />
between the closest points.<br />
In addition to the daily flow, this programme obtains the<br />
maximum and minimum flows, the monthly average flows<br />
and the monthly affords.<br />
67 C-C-D-E2 Dados los datos de alturas de escala diaria y los valores<br />
de las curvas alturas-caudales de una estación, calcula<br />
los niveles diarios en metros, los caudales diarios en<br />
m3 /s. , medias mensuales, máxima instantánea, aporta<br />
ci& mensual en Hm3, caudales clasificados y un resu--<br />
men de los datos del año (aportación y caudal total y es-<br />
pecifico y caudales caracteristicos).<br />
Given the daily scale heights data and the values <strong>of</strong> height-<br />
flow lines <strong>of</strong> a station, the programme computes the daily<br />
levels in meters, the daily flows in CU. m/s., monthly -<br />
averages, instantaneous maximum, monthly afford in --<br />
CU. Hm, classified flows and an annual summary data --<br />
(afford and total flow, specific flow and caracteristic --<br />
flows).<br />
68 C-C-D-ES Dados los datos de alturas de escala diaria y los valores<br />
de alturas-caudales de una estación, calcula los caudales<br />
diarios y el caudal medio anual.<br />
Los datos son los obtenidos en limnigrafo.
170<br />
69<br />
71<br />
72<br />
CURGA<br />
Given the daily scale heights data and the values <strong>of</strong> height-<br />
flow lines <strong>of</strong> a station, the programme computes the daily<br />
flows and the yearly average flow.<br />
Data are obtained by the limnigraphe.<br />
A partir de unos puntos base tabula una tabla de gastos.<br />
Lista y dibuja los diagramas de las curvas de gastos.<br />
From a basic point, it tabulates a tables <strong>of</strong> expenses.<br />
It lists and designes the diagram <strong>of</strong> the expense lines.<br />
ME Y ME Dadas las aportaciones mensuales de una serie de esta-<br />
ciones de una cuenca, calcula e imprime las medias mec<br />
suales de cada estación y la media de las medias de todas.<br />
MEDIP<br />
Given the monthly affords <strong>of</strong> a series <strong>of</strong> stations <strong>of</strong> a basin,<br />
it computes and prints the monthly average <strong>of</strong> each station<br />
and the average <strong>of</strong> all means.<br />
Dados los datos diarios de años de una estación, los<br />
imprime y calcula las sumas y medias mensuales de ca<br />
da ailo y las medias de las medias (mediorum).<br />
Given the daily data <strong>of</strong> c years <strong>of</strong> a station, the programme<br />
prints them and computes the sums and monthly averages<br />
<strong>of</strong> each year and the average <strong>of</strong> the n_ means (mediorum).<br />
MET, ME Dada una serie de datos mensuales, calcula ias medias<br />
para cualquier periodo.<br />
It calculates the average for any period <strong>of</strong> a series <strong>of</strong><br />
monthly data, which are given.
73<br />
74<br />
75<br />
76<br />
CIC LJD<br />
MED -AN<br />
A-ESP<br />
INF - 1<br />
171<br />
Calcula las medias acumuladas en periodos de n años y<br />
sus relaciones con la media del periodo total.<br />
It calculates the accumulated averages in periods <strong>of</strong> E<br />
years and their relations <strong>with</strong> the average <strong>of</strong> the total<br />
period.<br />
Dada una serie de datos anuales, calculala media para<br />
cualquier pedodo.<br />
Given a series <strong>of</strong> yearly data, the programme calculates<br />
the average for any period.<br />
Dadas unas series pluviométricas reales, obtiene una se<br />
rie real, media de las anteriores, a partir de la cual ob-<br />
tiene otra de precipitaciones efectivas, de la que se con-<br />
siguen las aportaciones especificas y los caudales en una<br />
cuenca.<br />
Given an actual pluviometrical series, the programme<br />
obtains an actual series, average <strong>of</strong> the preceding, from<br />
which it obtains another series <strong>of</strong> effective rainfalls, -<br />
from which it gets specific affords and the flows in a basin.<br />
Dadas las precipitaciones mensuales de una cueBca y los<br />
coeficientes de capacidad de infiltración mensual en mm.,<br />
de humedad inicial del suelo y de superficie en Has., ob-<br />
tiene las aportaciones especificas, infiltración y evapora<br />
cion.<br />
Given the monthly rainfall <strong>of</strong> a basin and the coefficients<br />
<strong>of</strong> monthly infiltration capacity in mm., initial humidity<br />
from the earth and from surface in Has., it gets the --<br />
specific affords, infiltration and evaporation.
172<br />
77 INF - 2 Realiza la misma función que el programa anterior, pe-<br />
ro a nivel diario.<br />
It performs the same function as the preceding one, but<br />
in a daily level.<br />
78 EVAP- 1 Dados los volúmenes, superficies y reserva, halla las<br />
evaporaciones.<br />
The programme computes the evaporations, knowing the<br />
volume, area and stock.<br />
79 EVAPT Dado el número de estaciones, superficie de la cuenca<br />
(kmz), aportación media (media de una serie) y precip'<br />
tación media, obtiene la aportación en Hm3, coeficiente<br />
de escorrentia y déficit de escorrentía.<br />
It obtains the afford in CU. Hm., run<strong>of</strong>f coefficient and<br />
deficit <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f, knowing the number <strong>of</strong> stations, area<br />
<strong>of</strong> the basin (sq. Km. ), average <strong>of</strong> the afford (average<br />
<strong>of</strong> a serie) and the average rainfall.<br />
80 REST-l Lista: número total de muestras, media aritmética, va-<br />
lor máximo, valor minimo, desviación tipica, tempera-<br />
tura del agua.<br />
The programme lists: total number <strong>of</strong> samples, arithmeg<br />
cal mean, maximum and minimum value, standard desvia<br />
tion. temperatura <strong>of</strong> the water.<br />
81 REST-2 Lista los mismos parámetros para calcio, magnesio, mall<br />
ganeso, sodio, potasio, cloruro, sulfato, fluoruro, silice,<br />
fosfato y carbonato.
82 REST-3<br />
83 REST-4<br />
84 D-FLSI<br />
85 GE~NE<br />
It lists the same parameters for calcium, magnesium,<br />
manganese, sodium, potassium, chloride, sulphate, -<br />
fluoride, silica, phosphate and carbonate.<br />
173<br />
Lista los mismos parámetros para bicarbonato, nitrito,<br />
nitrato, amoniaco, hierro, resistividad y sólidos disuel<br />
tos.<br />
It lists the same parameters for bicarbonate, nitrite,<br />
nitrate, ammonia, iron, resistivity, solid in dissolution.<br />
Lista los mismos parámetros para pH, resistividad, gas<br />
carbónico libre, oxígeno disuelto, dureza, dureza (sin -<br />
carbonatos), alcalinidad, T. A. , HC03.<br />
It lists the same parameters for pH, resistivity, free<br />
carbonic gas, oxygen dissolved, hardness, hardness -<br />
(<strong>with</strong>out carbonates), alkalinity, T. A., HC03.<br />
Dado el perimetro y la superficie por encima de cada co-<br />
ta de una cuenca, obtiene el rectángulo equivalent e, coe-<br />
ficiente de Gravelius, indice de pendiente, pendiente m e-<br />
dia y altitud media de la cuenca.<br />
Given the perimeter and the area above each elevation <strong>of</strong><br />
a basin, the programme obtains the equivalent rectangle,<br />
Gravelius factor, pendant index, average <strong>of</strong> the pendant<br />
and average altitude <strong>of</strong> the basin.<br />
A partir de coordenadas de puntos fijos dados, de medi-<br />
ciones, direcciones y distancias para una conexión de pu9<br />
tos aislados o múltiples, el programa obtiene las coorde-<br />
nadas de los nuevos puntos.
86<br />
87<br />
88<br />
DIS-2P<br />
HELME<br />
REPPU<br />
89 ARCES<br />
From coordinates <strong>of</strong> fixed given points, <strong>of</strong> measuring,<br />
directions and distances to a connection <strong>of</strong> isolated or<br />
multiples points, the programme gets the coordinates<br />
<strong>of</strong> the new points.<br />
Dadas las coordenadas de dos puntos, calcula su dis-<br />
tancia.<br />
Given the coordinates <strong>of</strong> two points, it calculates their<br />
distance.<br />
Convierte coordenadas instrumentales en terrestres<br />
(Helme rt ).<br />
It converts from instrumentais coordinates to terrestrial<br />
(Helmert).<br />
En función de las coordenadas de los puntos calcula azi-<br />
mutes y distancias para replanteo.<br />
In function <strong>of</strong> coordinates <strong>of</strong> the points, it calculates azi-<br />
muths and distances to be reconsidered.<br />
Calcula la superficie en planta que abarca cada curva en<br />
un embalse.<br />
It calculates the area which comprises each line in a<br />
reservoir.
90 EAKIN Dada la superficie del tramo máximo de un embalse, su<br />
longitud y la superficie del perfil de sondeo, obtiene el<br />
volumen de esas superficies.<br />
Given the area <strong>of</strong> the maximum stretch <strong>of</strong> a reservoir,<br />
their longitude and the area <strong>of</strong> the pr<strong>of</strong>ile <strong>of</strong> sounding,<br />
it obtains the volumes <strong>of</strong> those surfaces.<br />
91 RAPEM Cubica un embalse según la fórmula RAPEM.<br />
It cubes a reservoir according to formula RAPEM.<br />
92 C~R-AM Dada una serie mensual de datos hidrológicos, calcula<br />
la correlación ortogonal, los momentos de la serie reg<br />
pecto al origen y el coeficiente de correlación.<br />
175<br />
Given a monthly series <strong>of</strong> hydrological data, it calculates<br />
the ortogonal correlation, the moments <strong>of</strong> the series <strong>with</strong><br />
regards to the origin and the correlation factor.<br />
93 CPR-LM Calcula la correlación lineal mensual, obteniendo el cog<br />
ficiente de correlación, las medias, varianzas, disper--<br />
si&, coeficiente angular y ordenada en el origen de la<br />
recta de regresión.<br />
The programme calculates the monthly linear correlation,<br />
obtaining the correlation factor, the averages, variances,<br />
dispersion, grade angle coefficient and ordinate at the -<br />
origin <strong>of</strong> the regression straight.<br />
94 CPR-AN Este programa se diferencia del anterior Únicamente en<br />
que, partiendo de los datos mensuales, utiliza solamente
176<br />
los anuales, efectuando la correlación entre ellos con -<br />
arreglo al esquema ya reseñado.<br />
This programme differs from the previous one o<strong>nl</strong>y in<br />
that starting from the monthly data, it uses o<strong>nl</strong>y the -<br />
annual ones and performing the correlation among them,<br />
in accordante <strong>with</strong> the indicated scheme.<br />
95 C~R-DM Con los datos hidrológicos mensuales de tres estaciones,<br />
z, x e y, realiza la correlación doble de x e y con z, ob-<br />
teniendo la ecuación del plano de correlación.<br />
With the monthly hydrological data <strong>of</strong> the three stations,<br />
z, c and y, it performs the double correlation <strong>of</strong> x and y<br />
<strong>with</strong> z, obtaining the equation <strong>of</strong> the plane <strong>of</strong> correlation.<br />
96 CPR-PA El esquema es igual al de los anteriores que realizan cg<br />
rrelaciones, dando éste la ecuación de la parábola de re<br />
gresión de y sobre x.<br />
The scheme is identical to the previous one which performs<br />
correlations, , the equation <strong>of</strong> the parabola <strong>of</strong> regression<br />
<strong>of</strong> y on x is given by the scheme.<br />
97 C ~ R - ~ R Dadas dos series mensuales de datos hidrológicos, calcg<br />
la la correlación ortogonal obteniendo la recta cuya suma<br />
de cuadrados de distancias a los puntos es minima.<br />
Given two monthly series <strong>of</strong> hydrological data, the pro-<br />
gramme calculates the ortogonal correlation, obtaining<br />
the straight whose sum <strong>of</strong> squares to the points in min-<br />
imum.
98 CfbR-A-p Dada una serie mensual de datos hidrológicos, realiza<br />
la correlación anual ortogonal.<br />
Given a monthly series <strong>of</strong> hydrological data, it performs<br />
the yearly ortogonal correlation.<br />
99 CPR-48 Realiza la correlación ortogonal para los meses de estia<br />
je (4) y el resto de los meses (8).<br />
It performs the ortogonal correlation for the summer<br />
months (4) and to the balance <strong>of</strong> the months (8).<br />
100 CPR-LP Dadas dos series de datos hidrológicos, obtiene la recta<br />
de correlación ortogonal entre sus logaritmos.<br />
Given two series <strong>of</strong> hydrological data, it gets the straight<br />
<strong>of</strong> ortogonal correlation among their logarithms.<br />
10 1 COR-O-P El esquema es igual al del propama "CqR-qR" y, ade-<br />
más, dibuja la nube de puntos en el Plotter.<br />
The scheme is identical to "COR-OR" programme, in<br />
addition it draws the clouds <strong>of</strong> points in the Plotter.<br />
102 cpycfb Completa y corrige una serie de datos hidrológicos dan-<br />
do las ecuaciones de las rectas de regresión (y=ai x - bi)<br />
entre las dos series (se puede hacer con una ecuación o<br />
con dos simultáneamente).<br />
It completes and corrects a series <strong>of</strong> hydrological data,<br />
giving the equation <strong>of</strong> the regression straights (x=ai x - bi)<br />
between the two series (it can be done <strong>with</strong> an equation or<br />
two simultaneously).
178<br />
io3 ~p-DRR Completa los datos hidrológicos según la recta de regre-<br />
sión.<br />
It completes the hydrological data according to the reg-<br />
sion straight.<br />
104 IN-D-M1 Inventa datos mensuales de una estación con datos anua-<br />
les, a partir de los datos mensuales de otras dos esta--<br />
ciones.<br />
It creates monthly data <strong>of</strong> a station <strong>with</strong> yearly data, star<br />
ting from the monthly data <strong>of</strong> other two .stations.<br />
105 IN-D-M2 Inventa datos mensuales de una estación con datos anua-<br />
les, a partir de los datos mensuales de otra según la fÓ'<br />
mula B (I) = [A (I) * (SUMB (I) / SUMA (I) 1.<br />
It creates monthly data <strong>of</strong> a station <strong>with</strong> yearly data,<br />
starting from monthly data <strong>of</strong> other station, according<br />
to formula: B (I) = I A (I) * (SUMB (I) / SUMA (I) 1 .<br />
106 COQUI Calcula 20 correlaciones ortogonales, entre elementos<br />
quhnicos, pintando por Plotter los puntos y la recta de<br />
regresión y dos paralelas a una distancia igual a la dis-<br />
persion.<br />
The programme calculates 20 ortogonal correlations,<br />
among chemical elements, drawing in Plotter the points<br />
and the regression straight and two parallel lines to a<br />
distance identical to the dispersion.
179<br />
107 BERKA Dibuja el diagrama de Berkal<strong>of</strong>f-Scholler por el Plotter,<br />
uno por cada pozo, en una escala logaritmica. Pinta los<br />
puntos de los siguientes elementos: CA, MG, ALC, CL,<br />
SO4, HCOQ + CO3, NO3. y une con segmentos dichos -<br />
puntos.<br />
It designs the diagram <strong>of</strong> Berkal<strong>of</strong>f-Scholler by means <strong>of</strong><br />
Plotter, one diagram to each well, in logarithmical scale.<br />
It draws the points <strong>of</strong> the following elements: CA, MG, -<br />
ALC, CL, SO4, HC03 t COQ, NO3, and it joins the - -<br />
mentioned points <strong>with</strong> the segments.<br />
108 STIF Dibuja el diagrama de Stif.<br />
The programme draws the Stif diagram.<br />
109 PIPER Dibuja el diagrama de Piper. Consta de dos triángulos<br />
equivalentes; en la base del primero se marca en 70 el va<br />
lor CA, en mgl/l, y en los otros dos lados, MG y NA+K,<br />
y mediante paralelas a 10s lados opuestos obtenemos un<br />
punt o.<br />
De la misma forma, en el segundo triángulo pintan en el<br />
lado base, CL, y en los otros dos CO3 t HCH03 y so4 t<br />
t NOP en 70 y mediante paralelas obtenemos otro punto.<br />
Esta operación se repite para cada pozo y para las ocho<br />
zonas.<br />
It draws the Piper diagram. It is composed <strong>of</strong> two equiva<br />
lent triangles; in the base <strong>of</strong> the first one, it marks in 70<br />
the value CA, in mgl/l, and in the other two sides, MG<br />
and NA t K, and by means <strong>of</strong> parallel lines to the opposite<br />
sides obtaining a point.<br />
In the same way, in the second triangle, it marks in the<br />
sidebase, CL and in the other two sides, Co3 + HCHO<br />
and SO4 + NOP in 70 and by parallel lines obtaining another<br />
point. This execution is repeated for each well and for the<br />
eight bands.
180<br />
i10 G ~ K A los valores de una serie de datos hidrológicos, le ajug<br />
ta una ley de Goodrich y contrasta la bondad del ajuste -<br />
mediante el test de Kolmogor<strong>of</strong>f.<br />
Given a series <strong>of</strong> values <strong>of</strong> hydrological data, it fits <strong>with</strong><br />
Goodrich’s law and contrasts the perfection <strong>of</strong> the fitting<br />
by Kolmogor<strong>of</strong>f’ test.<br />
111 GPK~L A partir de una serie de datos hidrológicos anuales, se<br />
ajusta una ley de Goodrich y se contrasta la bondad del<br />
ajuste mediante el test de Kolmogor<strong>of</strong>f.<br />
Los datos de entrada son series mensuales. El programa<br />
obtiene las series anuales mensuales, la media, los mo-<br />
mentos respecto al origen de orden 2 y 3, los momentos<br />
centrales de segundo (varianza) y de tercer orden, as( -<br />
como los parámetros de la ley de distribución de Goodrich.<br />
Starting from a series <strong>of</strong> hydrological annual data, Good-<br />
rich’s law is adjusted and the perfection is contrasted by<br />
Kolmogor<strong>of</strong>f’test.<br />
The entry data are monthly series. The programme - -<br />
obtains, annual series, monthly series, the average, the<br />
moments <strong>with</strong> regard to the origin <strong>of</strong> order 2 and 3, the<br />
central moments <strong>of</strong> second (variance) and third order, -<br />
the programme obtains also the parameters <strong>of</strong> the Good-<br />
rich distribution law.<br />
112 GPKAF Dada una serie de datos hidrológicos, ajusta la ley de dig<br />
tribución de Goodrich.<br />
Given a series <strong>of</strong> hydrological data, the Goodrich distri-<br />
bution law is adjusted by the programme.
113 GPKPL Realiza la misma función que el programa IIGQKOLII y<br />
dibuja las curvas.<br />
It performs the same function that the "GOKOL"<br />
programme and draws the curves.<br />
114 GPK 70 Dada una serie de datos hidrológicos, ajusta una ley de<br />
Goodrich y contrasta la bondad del ajuste mediante el<br />
test de Kolmogor<strong>of</strong>f.<br />
181<br />
Given a series <strong>of</strong> hydrological data, it fits <strong>with</strong> Goodrich's<br />
law and contrasts the perfection <strong>of</strong> the fitting by Kolmogo<br />
r<strong>of</strong>f ' s tes t.<br />
115 GUMB 1 Ajusta una ley de Gumbel a una serie de datos hidrológi-<br />
cos. El programa nos da los diversos valores que resul-<br />
tan de la ley de Gumbel, ajustada para tiempos de recu-<br />
rrencia de 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 500 y 1000 anos ylista --<br />
los datos originales clasificados de menor a mayor, asig<br />
nándoles a cada uno la frecuencia 2n-1 / 2 N, donde n es<br />
el número de orden y N el total de datos.<br />
Datos de entrada (12 F. 6. 2). Anuales.<br />
This programme fits the Gumbel's law to a series <strong>of</strong> --<br />
hydrological data. The programme gives us several values<br />
according to the Gumbel's adjusted law, for time <strong>of</strong> --<br />
recurrences 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 500, 1000 years and it<br />
lists the original data classified in a crecent order assign-<br />
ing to each one a frecuency equal to 2n- 1 / 2 N, where n is<br />
the number <strong>of</strong> order and N the total number <strong>of</strong> data.<br />
Entry data (12 F 6. 2). Yearly.<br />
116 GUMB 2 Realiza la misma función que el programa "GUMB l", pg<br />
ro los datos de entrada son (9 F 8.3).<br />
It performs the same function as "GUMB l", but the entry<br />
data are (9 F 8. 3).
182<br />
117 GUMB 3<br />
118 GUMB 4<br />
119 GUMB-P<br />
Realiza la misma función que el programa "GUMB 1".<br />
pero los datos de entrada son mensuales.<br />
It performs the same function as the "GUMB l", but the<br />
entry data are monthly data.<br />
Ajusta una ley de Gumbel a una serie de datos mensua-<br />
les. Obtiene mensuales y máximos anuales.<br />
This programme fits the Gumbel's law to a series <strong>of</strong><br />
monthly data. It obtains also monthly and maximum<br />
annual series.<br />
Realiza la misma función que el programa "GUMB 1"<br />
y además dibuja la nube en el Plotter.<br />
It performs the same function as the programme "GUMB 1"<br />
and draws the clouds <strong>of</strong> points in the Plotter.<br />
120 C-C-D Dados los datos diarios de aportaciones naturales, se ob<br />
tienen datos diarios de aportaciones derivadas para dis-<br />
tintos caudales de derivación, con los que se obtienen ds<br />
tos mensuales de aportaciones naturales y derivadas. Con<br />
estas parejas de datos se ajustan unas curvas, que sirven<br />
para obtener datos mensuales de aportaciones derivadas<br />
cuando sólo se tengan datos mensuales de aportaciones -<br />
naturales.<br />
Given the daily data <strong>of</strong> natural affords, the programme -<br />
obtains daily data <strong>of</strong> derived affords for different flows -<br />
<strong>of</strong> derivation by which are obtained monthly data <strong>of</strong> natural<br />
and derived affords; <strong>with</strong> these pairs <strong>of</strong> data, some lines<br />
are adjusted, which are used to obtain monthly data <strong>of</strong><br />
derived affords, when o<strong>nl</strong>y monthly data <strong>of</strong> natural affords<br />
are had.
183<br />
1 .21 GAMMA Dada una selección de 10 valores equidistantes de la fun_<br />
ciÓn g amma de X (con 16 cifras significativas) y sus seis<br />
primeras diferencias en el intervalo (1, 2), obtiene por<br />
interpelación cualquier g amma de X.<br />
Given a selection <strong>of</strong> 10 equidistant values <strong>with</strong> the func-<br />
tion g amma <strong>of</strong> X (<strong>with</strong> 16 significative digits) and their<br />
six first differences in the interval (1. 2), the programme<br />
obtains by interpolation any gamma <strong>of</strong> X.<br />
122 NUMRE Dada una selección de 10 valores equidistantes de n y<br />
sus seis primeras diferencias en el intervalo (-0. 75,<br />
4.25), obtiene la función inversa de la función de Good-<br />
rich.<br />
Given a selection <strong>of</strong> 10 equidistant values <strong>of</strong> n and their<br />
six first differences in the interval (-0. 75, .4. 25), the<br />
programme obtains the inverse function <strong>of</strong> the Goodrich<br />
function.<br />
123 AM-C 4P Ajusta una ley de frecuencias parabólicas a los diez m e-<br />
nores valores de una serie de aportaciones clasificadas,<br />
sacando el valor de la aportación correspondiente a una<br />
garantía dada.<br />
The programme fits a law <strong>of</strong> parabolic frecuency to the<br />
ten least values <strong>of</strong> a series <strong>of</strong> classified affords, obtain-<br />
ing the value <strong>of</strong> the afford corresponding to a given - -<br />
guarantee.<br />
124 CD SOO Calcula las aportaciones acumuladas correspondientes a<br />
una garantía dada, obteniendo la curva de seguridad.<br />
It evaluates the accumulated affords corresponding to a<br />
given guarantee, obtaining the safety lines.
184<br />
125 CD SO1<br />
126 CD 502<br />
Calcula las aportaciones acumuladas durante un afio,<br />
obteniendo la curva de seguridad.<br />
It calculates the accumulated affords during a year,<br />
obtaining the safety line.<br />
Calcula las aportaciones acumuladas, después las clasi-<br />
fica considerando los siguientes periodos:<br />
Oct Nov Set<br />
Oct + 1 Nov + 1 Set + 1<br />
_ _ _ _ - - - - - - - - - - -<br />
Ott + k NO~ + k Set + k<br />
y obtiene después las aportaciones acumuladas corres -<br />
pondientes a una garantia determinada. Posteriormente,<br />
calcula las demandas acumuladas para los mismos peri2<br />
dos y seguidamente las superficies evaporantes corres-<br />
pondientes a un volumen cualquiera vi, tomando como sg<br />
perficie evaporante en un mes la media aritmética de las<br />
correspondientes al estado inicial y final, y aplicándolo<br />
a la evaporación unitaria mensual.<br />
A partir de estas pérdidas obtiene, para la curva de ga-<br />
rantia dada, las pérdidas totales para cada periodo.<br />
Finalmente, calcula por iteración la curva de seguridad<br />
por meses, según la ecuación<br />
siendo :<br />
Ei (G) = volumen embalsado al principio del mes (i)<br />
para las curvas de garantia G.<br />
Dik<br />
Pik<br />
= demanda real acumulada desde el principio<br />
del mes (i) durante k meses sucesivos.<br />
= pérdidas del embalse acumuladas desde el<br />
principio del mes (i) durante k meses suce-<br />
sivos.<br />
Aik (G) = aportación del embalse acumulada desde el<br />
principio del mes (i) durante k meses suce-<br />
sivos, que tiene una probabilidad G de ser<br />
superada.
185<br />
It evaluates the accumulated affords, and afterwards it<br />
classifies them considering the following periods:<br />
Oct Nov Set<br />
Oct t 1 Nov + 1 Set + 1<br />
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ - - - - - - - -<br />
Ott t k NO~ t k Set + k<br />
computing afterwards the accumulated affords corresponcj<br />
ing to a determined guarantee. Lately, it evaluates the -<br />
accumulated demands for the same periods and thereafter<br />
the evaporating areas corresponding to a given volume vi,<br />
taking as the evaporating areas in one month, the arithm-<br />
etical mean corresponding to the initial and final state -<br />
and applying this to the unitary monthly evaporation.<br />
Starting from this losses, the programme obtains for the<br />
given line <strong>of</strong> guarantee, the total losses to each period.<br />
Finally, it evaluates iteratively the safety line by months,<br />
according to the equation<br />
where:<br />
Ei (G) = stored volume at the beginning <strong>of</strong> the month (i)<br />
for the guarantee line G.<br />
Dik<br />
'ik<br />
= actual accumulated demand since the begin-<br />
ning <strong>of</strong> the month (i) during k consecutive -<br />
months.<br />
losses in the reservoir accumulated, since<br />
the beginning <strong>of</strong> the month (i) during k conse-<br />
cutive months.<br />
Aik (G) = accumulated afford in the reservoir since the<br />
beginning <strong>of</strong> the month (i) during k consecutive<br />
months, that has a G probability <strong>of</strong> being over<br />
pas sed.
186<br />
127 CDSSE<br />
128 REGCV<br />
Calcula las curvas de seguridad de un embalse, para -<br />
cualquier nivel de garantía de suministro de una deman<br />
da dada en función de la serie histórica de aportaciones<br />
de hasta 60 anos de duración.<br />
It evaluates the safety lines <strong>of</strong> a reservoir, to any level<br />
<strong>of</strong> giiarantee <strong>of</strong> supply <strong>of</strong> a given demand in function <strong>of</strong><br />
the teorica1 series <strong>of</strong> affords up to 60 years <strong>of</strong> duration.<br />
A partir de la serie de aportaciones mensuales en un pun<br />
to, calcula las capacidades de embalse estricto mediante<br />
el método de las diferencias acumuladas, por la expresión<br />
c = q - Aki.<br />
El mismo programa distingue dos casos:<br />
a) Regulación a caudal constante<br />
Mediante el programa obtenemos el principio y la<br />
duración del período de vaciado del embalse, del<br />
intervalo de meses sucesivos que da el máximo VE<br />
lor positivo a la suma de las diferencias ni q - Aki,<br />
siendo qi el caudal minimo continuo garantizado -<br />
durante el periodo considerado. Calcula también el<br />
volumen medio regulado en % de la aportación m e-<br />
dia y en Hm3, el caudal regulado y las capacidades<br />
de embalse estrictas para asegurar estos caudales<br />
en tanto por ciento de la aportación media y en Hm3.<br />
b) Regulación con caudal variable<br />
En este caso el caudal para hacer el cálculo de la -<br />
regulación es variable en cada uno de los meses. -<br />
El programa nos da el principio y la duración del -<br />
periodo de vaciado del embalse, volumen medio re<br />
gulado en 70 de A m y en Hm3, capacidades de embF2<br />
se estricto en 7' de A m y en Hm3 y, además, el nu-<br />
mero de Has. regables con los volúmenes medios -<br />
regulables.<br />
Starting from the series <strong>of</strong> monthly affords in a point, the<br />
programme calculates the capacities <strong>of</strong> strict reservoir<br />
according to the method <strong>of</strong> the accumulated differences, -<br />
by the expression C z ni q - Aki.<br />
The same programme distinguishes two cases :
a)<br />
Regulation at a constant flow<br />
187<br />
By means <strong>of</strong> the programme we obtain the beginning<br />
and the duration <strong>of</strong> the period <strong>of</strong> emptying the resec<br />
voir, the interval <strong>of</strong> following months which gives<br />
the maximum positive value <strong>of</strong> the sum od differen_<br />
ces ni qi - Aki, being qi the minimum continuos -<br />
flow guaranteed during the period under consider-<br />
ation. It calculates also the average regulated - -<br />
volume in 70 <strong>of</strong> the average afford and in CU. Hm,<br />
the regulated flow and the strict capacities <strong>of</strong> --<br />
reservoir to assure these flows in percentage <strong>of</strong><br />
the average afford and in CU. Hm.<br />
b) Regulation <strong>with</strong> variable flow<br />
In this case the flow to perform the calculation <strong>of</strong><br />
the regulation is variable in each month. The pro-<br />
gramme gives us the beginning and the duration <strong>of</strong><br />
the emptying period <strong>of</strong> the reservoir, averages -<br />
regulated volume in 70 <strong>of</strong> A m and in CU. Hm, capa<br />
cities <strong>of</strong> the strict reservoir in 70 <strong>of</strong> Am and in CU.<br />
Hm in addition, the number <strong>of</strong> Has irrigables <strong>with</strong><br />
the average regulable volumes.<br />
129 REG25 Realiza la misma función que el programa "REGCV",<br />
pero la entrada de datos está calculada para que regule<br />
estaciones durante 25 horas.<br />
The programme performs the same function as the pro-<br />
gramme "REGVF", but the entry data is evaluated to<br />
regulate stations during 25 hours.<br />
130 REGVA Dada una serie histórica de aportaciones mensuales, unos<br />
consumos, una serie de precipitaciones mensuales sobre<br />
el cultivo, unas capacidades de embalse máximo muerto<br />
y dando distintos porcentajes del consumo, calcula las -<br />
variaciones de volumen embalsado, los dé€icits y verti-<br />
dos, después de abastecer los regadios con unos consu-<br />
mos determinados, a los que descuenta la precipitación<br />
sobre el cultivo. El programa tiene en cuenta la evapora<br />
ciÓn mensual del embalse.
188<br />
Given an historical series <strong>of</strong> monthly affords, some -<br />
consumptions, a series <strong>of</strong> monthly rainfall over the crop,<br />
a capacities <strong>of</strong> maximum dead reservoir and giving dif-<br />
ferent porcentages <strong>of</strong> the consumption, this programme<br />
calculates the variations <strong>of</strong> volume <strong>of</strong> the reservoir, the<br />
deficits and emptying, them to supply the irrigated land<br />
<strong>with</strong> a determined consumptions, deducting the rainfall<br />
on the cultivation. It has in consideration also the month-<br />
ly evaporation <strong>of</strong> the reservoir.<br />
131 REG-RA Estudia la regulación para riegos y abastecimientos de<br />
forma análoga al REGVA.<br />
This programme studies the regulation for irrigation<br />
and supply in the same way to the REGVA programme.<br />
132 REG-K2 Estudia la regulación conjunta de un sistema de embal-<br />
ses considerando evaporación, para lo que utiliza los -<br />
siguientes datos:<br />
a)<br />
Las series de aportaciones en uno, dos tres o c u ~<br />
tro embalses de los que se trata de efectuar una -<br />
regulación conjunta.<br />
3<br />
b) Los consumos mensuales en Hm , suponiendo que<br />
se consume anualmente el 100% de la aportación -<br />
media de cada embalse.<br />
c)<br />
d)<br />
La evaporación mensual en cms.<br />
Las caracteristicas de los embalses, ecuaciones<br />
de las curvas alturas -volúmenes, superficies -voli<br />
menes, capacidad total y volumen de embalse - -<br />
muer to.<br />
El programa realiza entre las aportaciones de cada em-<br />
balse sorteos equiprobables de 5 en 5 años, hasta 1000<br />
años, y a las series de 50, 100, 150 - 1000 les aplica el<br />
proceso de regulación conjunta, en hipótesis de consumo<br />
de diversos % de la aportación media, dando como res-<br />
tado el 70 de fallos en cada serie de anos para cada uno -<br />
de los embalses considerados.
133 REG-SU<br />
189<br />
It studies the compound regulation <strong>of</strong> a system <strong>of</strong> reser-<br />
voirs considering evaporation, usind the following data:<br />
a)<br />
The series <strong>of</strong> affords in one, two, three or four<br />
reservoirs <strong>of</strong> which it treats to realize a compound<br />
regulation.<br />
b) The monthly consumption in CU. Hm, supposing -<br />
that one hundred per cent <strong>of</strong> the average afford is<br />
used yearly in each reservoir.<br />
c) Monthly evaporation in cms.<br />
d)<br />
The characteristics <strong>of</strong> the reservoirs, equations<br />
<strong>of</strong> the height-volume lines, area-volumes, total<br />
capacity and volume <strong>of</strong> the dead reservoir.<br />
The programme performs among the affords <strong>of</strong> each<br />
reservoirs equi-probable casting lots every 5 years<br />
until 1000 years, and to the series.50, 100, 150, 1000<br />
the programme uses the compound regulation process,<br />
in the hypothesis <strong>of</strong> different 70 <strong>of</strong> consumption <strong>of</strong> the<br />
average afford, given as a result the percentage <strong>of</strong> -<br />
failures in each series <strong>of</strong> years for each reservoir under<br />
consideration.<br />
Este programa estudia la regulación sucesiva de una se-<br />
rie de embalses, sin limitación de número, utilizando las<br />
curvas de regulación del programa anterior y en la hipó-<br />
tesis de que la capacidad de embalse se utiliza para reg5<br />
lar la aportación de la cuenca propia y los caudales no re<br />
gulados aguas arriba, obteniéndose como resultado los -<br />
volúmenes regulados por cuencas parciales y totales.<br />
This programme studies the sequential regulation <strong>of</strong> a<br />
series <strong>of</strong> reservoir, <strong>with</strong>out limitation <strong>of</strong> number, using<br />
the regulation lines <strong>of</strong> the preceding programme and -<br />
under the hypothesis that the capacity <strong>of</strong> reservoir is -<br />
used to regulate the afford <strong>of</strong> its own basin and the non<br />
regulated upstream flows, obtaining as a result the regu<br />
lated volumes by partial and total basins.
190<br />
134 REG-KI<br />
135 REG-K3<br />
EAM<br />
RYPJU<br />
RELLO<br />
RESE<br />
EBBE<br />
136 CMAR<br />
137 EAM<br />
Igual que el REG-KI sin embalse muerto.<br />
The same as REG-KI, but <strong>with</strong>out dead reservoir.<br />
Realiza la misma función que el programa "REG-KI",<br />
calculando directamente varias hipótesis.<br />
It performs the same function as the programme "REG-<br />
K2", evaluating directly several hypothesis.<br />
Dados los valores de abastecimiento, riegos en valor<br />
absoluto y 70, calcula los consumos mensuales.<br />
Given the values <strong>of</strong> supply, irrigations in absolute value<br />
and percentage, it calculates the monthly consumption.<br />
Estudia la explotación de hasta seis embalses, interco-<br />
nectados entre ellos por una red principal de canales de<br />
conducción, que se simula mediante una malla de 24 nu<br />
dos.<br />
Utiliza una serie de aportaciones generadas por sorteo<br />
aleatorio teniendo en cuenta o no la autocorrelación de<br />
las aportaciones anuales.<br />
Los Órdenes de desembalse se establecen en función de<br />
los vertidos probables de cada uno de los embalses y de<br />
la demanda a satisfacer. Se tiene en cuenta las pérdidas<br />
por evaporación en los embalses y la capacidad de las -<br />
conducciones.
191<br />
EAM It studies the development <strong>of</strong> up to six reservoirs, inter<br />
connected among them by a principal net <strong>of</strong> channels <strong>of</strong><br />
conduction, which are simulated by a mesh <strong>of</strong> 24 knots.<br />
The programme uses a series <strong>of</strong> generated affords by<br />
fortuitous casting lots having present or no the self-cor<br />
relation <strong>of</strong> yearly affords.<br />
The orders <strong>of</strong> emptying are established in relation to the<br />
probable emptying <strong>of</strong> each reservoir and <strong>of</strong> the demand<br />
to satisfy. Having present the losses by evaporation in<br />
the reservoir and the capacity <strong>of</strong> the conductions.<br />
138 RYPJU Este modelo simula la explotación y la producción ener-<br />
gética de un conjunto de aprovechamientos.<br />
Se aplica a un sistema de aprovechamientos (embalses y<br />
saltos hidroeléctricos) situados sobre dos rios en forma<br />
de Y, al cual se pueden añadir caudales regulados en --<br />
otras cuencas o detraer caudales regulados por el sist:<br />
ma.<br />
A partir de una serie de aportaciones generada por sor-<br />
teo aleatorio y teniendo en cuenta la autocorrelación, se<br />
establecen los Órdenes de desembalse en función de las<br />
demandas y de los vertidos probables en cada embalse.<br />
El modelo calcula las producciones en todos los saltos<br />
y la garantia de suministro de la demanda prevista.<br />
This model pretends the exploitation and energetic pro-<br />
duction <strong>of</strong> an assembly <strong>of</strong> utilizations.<br />
It is applied to a system <strong>of</strong> utilizations (reservoirs and<br />
hydroelectric waterfall) located on two rivers in the form<br />
<strong>of</strong> Y, to which it could be added regulated flows in other<br />
basins or take away flows regulated by a system.<br />
Starting from a series <strong>of</strong> affords, generated by fortuitous<br />
casting lots and having present the self-correlation, the<br />
order <strong>of</strong> emptying in relation to the demand and the pro-<br />
bable emptying in each reservoir is established.<br />
The model calculates the productions in all waterfalls<br />
and the guarantee <strong>of</strong> supply <strong>of</strong> the calculated request.
192<br />
139 RELLO<br />
140 RESE<br />
Este modelo simula la explotación coordinada de los re-<br />
cursos superficiales y subterráneos.<br />
Supone la existencia de un embalse subterráneo del que<br />
se puede extraer un caudal uniforme prefijado, en fun-<br />
ción de los estados de los embalses del sistema.<br />
Utiliza una serie de aportaciones generadas por sorteo<br />
aleatorio, teniendo en cuenta la autocorrelación de las<br />
aportaciones anuales y las curvas de seguridad de un -<br />
embalse equivalente a la suma de los embalses del sis-<br />
tema, determinadas mediante el programa CDSSE.<br />
La explotación se simula teniendo en cuenta las pérdidas<br />
por evaporación en los embalses y obtiene la garanda de<br />
suministro de la demanda de abastecimiento junto con -<br />
los valores de la extracción anual media del acuifero y<br />
del periodo de máxima duración de la extracción máxi-<br />
ma prevista.<br />
This model pretends the coordinated exploitation <strong>of</strong> su-<br />
perficial and underground resources.<br />
It assumes the existence <strong>of</strong> an underground reservoir<br />
from which a uniform flow can be extracted fixed in ad-<br />
vance, depending on the state <strong>of</strong> the system <strong>of</strong> the resec<br />
voir.<br />
It uses a series <strong>of</strong> generated affords by fortuitous casting<br />
lots, having present the self-correlation <strong>of</strong> the yearly<br />
affords and the safety lines <strong>of</strong> a reservoir equivalent to<br />
the sum <strong>of</strong> the system, which is determined by the pro-<br />
gramme SAFLI.<br />
The exploitation is simulated, having present the losses<br />
by evaporation in the reservoir, the guarantee <strong>of</strong> supply<br />
<strong>of</strong> the demand, together <strong>with</strong> the values <strong>of</strong> the annual -<br />
average extraction and <strong>of</strong> the period <strong>of</strong> maximum calcu-<br />
lated extraction.<br />
Este modelo simula un sistema de explotación con varios<br />
embalses situados sobre una misma corriente, uno de -<br />
los cuales puede ser el origen de un aprovechamiento -<br />
hidroeléctrico.<br />
La explotación se establece a partir de una serie de apor<br />
taciones generadas por sorteo aleatorio y teniendo en -
141 EBBE<br />
193<br />
cuenta la autocorrelación de las aportaciones anuales,<br />
en función de las curvas de seguridad de un embalse tg<br />
tal equivalente para atender a una demanda de usos cog<br />
suntivos. Al mismo tiempo que calcula la garantía de su<br />
ministro de la demanda prevista obtiene las produccio-<br />
nes históricas en todos los saltos, distinguiendo la enec<br />
gi’a de puntas y la energía producible en horas llenas en<br />
el periodo critico (nov. a feb. ) de máxima demanda ener<br />
gética. Ordena los valores de la energía optenidos y as{<br />
puede suministrar los valores de la energia de distinta<br />
calidad garantizada en el per
194<br />
<strong>of</strong> the calculated reservoirs. It calculates the values <strong>of</strong><br />
the possible overflows at the same time that it calculates<br />
the guarantee <strong>of</strong> supply <strong>of</strong> the calculated demands and the<br />
energetic productions and consumptions in the hydroelec<br />
trical utilizations <strong>of</strong> the basin.<br />
142 LAMI 1 Estudia la laminación de un embalse, supuesto un nivel<br />
inicial determinado y pudiendo utilizar uno o varios si-<br />
temas de desagües, en función de las caracteristicas -<br />
del embalse y de la crecida.<br />
It studies the lamination <strong>of</strong> a reservoir, supposing an<br />
initial level determined in advance and being possible<br />
the use <strong>of</strong> one or several drainage systems, in function<br />
<strong>of</strong> the characteristics <strong>of</strong> the reservoir and the flood.<br />
143 HIDR 1 Calcula el hidrograma para diversas hipótesis de inten-<br />
sidad horaria de precipitación, coeficiente de escorren-<br />
tia y duración de la tormenta.<br />
It evaluates the hydrogram for different hypothesis <strong>of</strong><br />
hourly intensity <strong>of</strong> rainfall, run<strong>of</strong>f coefficient and the<br />
duration <strong>of</strong> the storm.<br />
144 HIDR 2 Calcula el hidrograma con intensidad y coeficiente de<br />
escorrenti’a corriente.<br />
It computes the hydrogram <strong>with</strong> normal intensity and<br />
usual run<strong>of</strong>f coefficient.<br />
145 ABC Realiza el estudio económico (análisis, beneficio y cos -<br />
to), expresándolo en forme de corrientes monetarias as
tualizadas en función de la tasa de descuento y obtiene<br />
la ratio<br />
Beneficio - Gastos<br />
costos<br />
195<br />
It performs the economic study (analysis, pr<strong>of</strong>it and<br />
price) expressing it in actual monetary currency in func-<br />
tion <strong>of</strong> the standard rate <strong>of</strong> deduction and it obtains the<br />
ratio<br />
Pr<strong>of</strong>it - Expenses<br />
Prices<br />
146 ABC 10 Programa ABC para estudio económico de varias cen-<br />
trales.<br />
It programmes ABC for an economical study <strong>of</strong> several<br />
centrals.<br />
147 ABC TV Programa ABC para estudio económico, con tasa varia-<br />
ble.<br />
It programmes ABC for an economical study, <strong>with</strong> varia<br />
ble standard rate.<br />
148 BNZ Dado el número de muestra, tiempo de lectura y número<br />
de desintegración, obtiene la concentración de Tritio pa-<br />
ra muestras de agua.<br />
Given the number <strong>of</strong> the sample, lecture time and num-<br />
ber <strong>of</strong> disintegration, it obatains the concentration <strong>of</strong> -<br />
Tritium for sample <strong>of</strong> water.
196<br />
149 PARAM Calcula los siguientes indices : RMG/RCA, RNA/RK,<br />
RNA/RCA, ANA/RMG, (RCA-RMG), RALC, BR/CL,<br />
RCL/RHCO3, RHCO3/RCL, RS04/RCL, (RCA + RHCOQ)/<br />
/ (RCH + RS04), RHC03/RHC03 t RS04 t RCL, RALC/RCL,<br />
RCA/RALC, SAR, ICB, ID, FI, Tipo de agua. Además,<br />
lista los elementos en meq/l. y en 70.<br />
It calculates the following indexes: RMG/RCA, RNA/RK,<br />
RNA/RCA, ANA/RMG, (RCA-RMG), RALC, BR/CL,<br />
RCL/RHC03, RHC03/RCL, RSOq/RCL, (RCA t RHCOS)/<br />
/ (RCH t RS04), RHC03/RHC03 + RSO4 + RCL, RALC/<br />
/ RCL, RCA/RALC, SAR, ICB, ID, FI, Type <strong>of</strong> water.<br />
Besides, it lists the elements in meq/l. and in %.<br />
150 HISTO Calcula los histogramas de las siguientes relaciones,<br />
clasificándolos en clases y valores fuera de clase:<br />
RCL/RS04, RCL/RHCO3, RALC/RCL, RNAIRCA, RCL,<br />
RSO4, RHC03, RN03, RALC, Res. seco, T.D.S., Dureza<br />
total. El histograma lo dibuja por impresora.<br />
It calculates the hystogram <strong>of</strong> the following relations,<br />
classifying them in classes and values out <strong>of</strong> class:<br />
RCL/RS04, RCL/RHCO3, RALC/RCL, RNA/RCA, RCL,<br />
RSO4, RHC03, RN03, RALC, Res. (dry), T.D.S., total<br />
hardness. The hystogram is designed by the printer.<br />
151 TUBEC Dado un muestrario de tubedas de diferentes diámetros,<br />
con sus precios y caracteristicas hidráulicas,, determi-<br />
na para una configuración topológica y topografica de la<br />
red y para diversas hipótesis, la combinación de distri-<br />
bución de tubos más económica que permita el suminis-<br />
tro solicitado con la minima pérdida de carga.<br />
Given a sample book <strong>of</strong> pipes <strong>of</strong> differents diameters,<br />
<strong>with</strong> their prices and hydraulical characteristics, it<br />
determines for a topological and topographical form <strong>of</strong><br />
the system and for several hypothesis, the combination<br />
<strong>of</strong> distribution <strong>of</strong> pipes more economical, that allow the<br />
solicited supply <strong>with</strong> the minimum loss <strong>of</strong> loading.
197<br />
152 CANAL Definido un canal por sus secciones y pendientes en difg<br />
rentes tramos, as: como por distintos tipos de cornpuer_<br />
tas, el programa determina la evolución de los caudales<br />
transportados en el curso del tiempo, as: como los cala<br />
dos alcanzados en los distintos tramos del canal.<br />
Permite estudiar las maniobras de apertura y cierre de<br />
compuertas más convenientes para la explotación del cg<br />
na1 .<br />
Defined a canal by its sections and pendants in different<br />
stretchs, as well as by different types <strong>of</strong> floodgates, -<br />
this programme determines the evolution <strong>of</strong> the flows<br />
carried in the course <strong>of</strong> time, as well as soakage reach-<br />
ed in the different stretchs <strong>of</strong> the canal.<br />
It allows also to study the process <strong>of</strong> opening and closing<br />
<strong>of</strong> floodgates more convenient to exploitation to the canal.<br />
153 SER-EL Depura los datos suministrados por las empresas hidro-<br />
eléctricas relativos a la producción mensual de energi'a<br />
de los diferentes saltos de cada una, recogidos en tarje<br />
tas perforadas. La depuración se hace verificando la -<br />
concordancia de los datos geográficos, número de horas<br />
de utilización de los controles en función de la potencia<br />
instalada y producción.<br />
Una vez corregidos todos los errores detectados, pre-<br />
para unos cuadros resúmenes estadisticos de producción<br />
de energTa, clasificados por diferentes conceptos :<br />
Producciones globales por cuencas hidrográficas en ca-<br />
da mes.<br />
Producciones globales UNESA, IN1 y otr os en cada mes.<br />
Producciones anuales clasificadas por:<br />
Empresa o concesionario.<br />
Centrales por magnitud de su producción.<br />
Centrales y cuencas por magnitud de su produc-<br />
cion.<br />
Centrales y rios por magnitud de su producción.<br />
Centrales y provincias por magnitud de su produc-<br />
ción.
198<br />
It purifies the supplied data by hydroelectrical companies<br />
relatives to monthly productions <strong>of</strong> energy <strong>of</strong> the diffe--<br />
rents waterfalls <strong>of</strong> each one, collected in perforated cards.<br />
The cleansing is done verifying the harmony <strong>of</strong> geographi-<br />
cal data, number <strong>of</strong> hours <strong>of</strong> utilization <strong>of</strong> controls in -<br />
function <strong>of</strong> installed power and production.<br />
Once corrected all the detected errors, it prepares a<br />
summary <strong>of</strong> statistical charts <strong>of</strong> production <strong>of</strong> energy,<br />
classified by different ideas :<br />
Total productions for hydrographical basin in each month.<br />
Total productions UNESA, INI, and others in each month.<br />
Annual production classified by:<br />
Company or dealer.<br />
Centrals by magnitude <strong>of</strong> production.<br />
Centrals and basins by magnitude <strong>of</strong> production.<br />
Centrals and rivers by magnitude <strong>of</strong> production.<br />
Centrals and provinces by magnitude <strong>of</strong> production.
COMPUTATION OF RESERVOIRS SEDIMENTATION<br />
A.V. Karaushev, I.V. Bogoliubova<br />
State Hydrologic a 1 Institut e<br />
Leningrad, USSR<br />
-- ABSTRACT<br />
Methods for the computation <strong>of</strong> sedimentation by suspended<br />
sediments and bed load <strong>of</strong> the projected reservoirs are given,<br />
or the first year Of the reservoir operation computation is<br />
made according to the balance <strong>of</strong> sediments computed by the<br />
difference between the transport capacity and the hydraulic<br />
parameters <strong>of</strong> the current at the upper pool (transient region)<br />
and at the dan <strong>of</strong> the reservoir. The subsequent attenuation <strong>of</strong><br />
the process as well as the total duration <strong>of</strong> sedimentation is<br />
evaluated by empirical relations obtained from the observational<br />
data on reservoirs under operation.<br />
RESUME<br />
Les auteurs exposent des méthodes pour le calcul de<br />
l'envasement des barrages par les matériaux transportés en<br />
charriage ou en suspensión. On fait, pour la première année<br />
d'exploitation, le bilan des matériaux déposés dans la retenue<br />
par différence entre ce qui entre à l'amont (station de mesure<br />
dar,s la zo~e du remous) et ce qui sort par le barrage; ces<br />
mesures sort reliées aux paramètres hydrauliques du cours d'eau.<br />
u', extrapole les résultats dans le futur en utilisant des<br />
relations empiriques obtenues pour d'autres réservoirs en cours<br />
! 1 exploit at ion.
200<br />
The construction <strong>of</strong> reservoirs in mountain areas and at the<br />
foothills on rivers <strong>with</strong> a considerable sediment concentration<br />
inevitably faces <strong>with</strong> the necessitg to remove or to impede sediments<br />
transported by the river to keep the projected capacity<br />
<strong>of</strong> the reservoir. The present paper gives methods accepted in<br />
the USSR providing the evaluation <strong>of</strong> possible sedimentation rate<br />
for the whole reservoir or for its individual parts during the<br />
first year <strong>of</strong> its operation and for subsequent years.<br />
Methods for the computation <strong>of</strong> re semoirs sedimentat ion are<br />
based on the equation <strong>of</strong> sediments balance applied to the whole<br />
reservoir or its parts, to the gross composition <strong>of</strong> the transported<br />
sediments or its particular fractions. The use <strong>of</strong> this equation<br />
makes it possible to compute the difference between sediments inflow<br />
and its discharge out <strong>of</strong> the reservoir i.e. sediments<br />
accumulation. The inflow <strong>of</strong> sediments is computed by observational<br />
out <strong>of</strong> the reservoir<br />
data or by indirect methods. The discharge <strong>of</strong> sediments is estimated<br />
by equations <strong>of</strong> the transporting capacitg <strong>of</strong> the current at<br />
the specified values <strong>of</strong> water discharge Q, mean depth Hm, mean<br />
current velocity Vm, and granulometaAc sediment composition.<br />
The computation <strong>of</strong> sedimentation during one year is reduced<br />
by the determination <strong>of</strong> that portion <strong>of</strong> sediment discharge<br />
which is accumulated in the reservoir. When starting computation<br />
it is essential to establish design values <strong>of</strong> annual water<br />
discharge, <strong>of</strong> suspended sediments and bed load, as well as typical<br />
chronological graphs <strong>of</strong> these values for the inflow site <strong>of</strong><br />
the reservoir. It is recommended to divide the hydrograph <strong>of</strong> the<br />
typical year into 3 or 4 design time intervals& and to compute<br />
sediments accumulation according to the values o $ Q, Vm Hm, etc.,<br />
averaged for every time interval. The computation <strong>of</strong> se Aimentation<br />
rate is made by individual fractions i, in this case it is<br />
sufficient to subdivide all the transported fractions into 3 or<br />
5 categories. Then sediments are summarized according to all<br />
categories <strong>of</strong> the fractions.<br />
The computation <strong>of</strong> sedimentation by suspended fractions for<br />
a design interval A tj is niade by equation:<br />
where: Pa j is the amount <strong>of</strong> sediments <strong>of</strong> all the fractions<br />
(tons) in the reservoir or in the design area dur A t ;<br />
*i in J is inflow <strong>of</strong> sediments <strong>of</strong> the i-th fractio3tonsg<br />
durmg time ~t through the initial (upper) discharge site <strong>of</strong><br />
the reservoir $ or its part)determined by the chronological<br />
graph or by computation das made for the upstream area; Qter<br />
is mean water discharge (<br />
sec) for time at through the<br />
terminal (downstream) discharge site <strong>of</strong> the Jeservoir ( at the<br />
dam) or the design area; Si t is mean particular turbidity<br />
for time At. <strong>of</strong> the i-th fractfoi at the terminal discharge site<br />
<strong>of</strong> the resehoir (certain area) (g/m3); ~ t is j time interval<br />
(sec).
202<br />
Turbidity <strong>of</strong> the i-th fraction at the terminal discharge<br />
site Si ter j is computed by equation <strong>of</strong> A.T. Karaushev:<br />
- G"AL<br />
(2)<br />
where: Si 4" J Ois particular turbidity at the initial discharge<br />
site mean or time interval B ta; S? is the turbidity<br />
corresponding to a particular thins$<strong>of</strong>%idg capacity <strong>of</strong> the current<br />
computed by equation (6) given below; e is the base <strong>of</strong> natural<br />
l2gar ith;<br />
G is dimensio<strong>nl</strong>ess value determined by equation<br />
where: ui is fall velocity <strong>of</strong> fraction i under consideration;<br />
kg is a parameter having a dimensionality <strong>of</strong> velocity and which<br />
is computed by equation<br />
LL; ri<br />
(4)<br />
The value <strong>of</strong> r is the value <strong>of</strong> hydroneclnanic param?.t;er<br />
<strong>of</strong> sediments whichi= be obtained by graphs according to the<br />
Chezygs coefficient C and ratio <strong>of</strong> *i (Fig. 1 ). In equation (3)<br />
AL indicates the length<br />
-<br />
<strong>of</strong> the reservoir (or it8 part) given<br />
In relative units:<br />
A L<br />
AL =----<br />
Hm (5)<br />
where: AL is the length <strong>of</strong> the reservoir (or design area (m);<br />
IL, is mean depth <strong>of</strong> the reservoir ( or some area), (m) for time<br />
iIltel?ral A t*o<br />
A particulAr transporting aapacj. <strong>of</strong> the current S: tr -<br />
(for the i-th fraction <strong>of</strong> i8 CO uted <strong>with</strong> the %se <strong>of</strong><br />
data on bed load composition. The value <strong>of</strong> 8 tr j is computed<br />
<strong>with</strong> the use <strong>of</strong> hydraulic elements <strong>of</strong> the current mean for time<br />
interval A tj related to the whole reservoir or its desim area:<br />
Here a<br />
actual<br />
indicates a correcting factor estimated by the ratio <strong>of</strong><br />
and computed turbidity at the initial discharge site:<br />
SS4. r a= --<br />
s cokvlvip (7)
2 02<br />
d is composition ( in per cent) <strong>of</strong> the i-th weighted<br />
f&&&o& in the roiling portion <strong>of</strong> bed load.<br />
The value 0% droil i is determined by the ratio<br />
--<br />
IC0 , (8)<br />
roil i - t CL bed i<br />
where A is the portion (per cent) <strong>of</strong> the i-th fraction in<br />
bed load &&&sition; r is gross portion ( in per cent) <strong>of</strong> the<br />
weighted fraction in bed load composition. In this case sediments<br />
wPth fall velocity corresponding to the condition u 4 1- are<br />
regarded as weighted fractions, and Vi indicates maxmum value<br />
<strong>of</strong> the vertical component <strong>of</strong> the puls%on velocitg. The latter<br />
salue is computed by a special equation according to mean velocity<br />
<strong>of</strong> the current and Chew's coefficient. Gross turbidity <strong>of</strong> roiling<br />
(Sroil) is obtained by equation:<br />
where: N is characteristic dimensio<strong>nl</strong>ess number depending on<br />
Chew's eoefficient C; is the ratio <strong>of</strong> velocity at the bottom<br />
go mean veloci%y; the ! est <strong>of</strong> the symbols are given in previous<br />
equations, *<br />
When comguting.Si tr for the first time interval the composition<br />
<strong>of</strong> bed load xn the reservoir is accepted according to the<br />
averaged conposition <strong>of</strong> river alluvium in the cñannel and in the<br />
f lood-plain; for subsequent intervals it is essential to consider<br />
the composition <strong>of</strong> sediments obtained by computations.<br />
If sedimentation is computed for certaih areas, then Si 8' j<br />
estimated by equation (2) for the first (upper) area 1s use as<br />
Si in j for the second area domstream, etc.<br />
The computation <strong>of</strong> reservoir sedimentation by bed load is made<br />
according to the same design intemals a8 by suspended sediments.<br />
For an approximate evaluation it i8 possible to be confined to<br />
the computation for flood periods when the major portion <strong>of</strong> coarse<br />
fractions flows into the reservoir.<br />
The amount <strong>of</strong> bed load in the reservoir is determined by the<br />
difference:<br />
(10)<br />
where: Pa bed is the weight <strong>of</strong> bed load in the reservoir (tons);<br />
n t. is time interval (sec); Rbed in<br />
J<br />
and Rbed ter jindicate<br />
bed load discharge at the initial and termi.mil discharge sites<br />
(kg/sec) nean for design time intervalat.. For bed load discharge<br />
computation it is reasonable to recommed $he equations<strong>of</strong> G.I.<br />
Shamov, VaNe Gomharov, I.V. Egiaearov, K.I. Rossinski, et al. The<br />
equation <strong>of</strong> G.I. Shamov is the most simple one providing a suffici-
203<br />
ent coincidence <strong>of</strong> computation results <strong>with</strong> the data <strong>of</strong> measure-<br />
ments at a wide range <strong>of</strong> fractions dimensions:<br />
where: Rbed is bed load discharge (kg/sec); B is current width<br />
(m); Hm is mean depth (m); a, is mean diameter <strong>of</strong> mobile particles<br />
<strong>of</strong> bed load (m); Vm is mean velocity <strong>of</strong> the current (m/sec); vsed<br />
is mean velocitg <strong>of</strong> the current (m/sec) when fractions<strong>with</strong> Q<br />
in diameter stop moving; K is coefficient consider- non-homo-<br />
geneitg <strong>of</strong> bed load composition.<br />
The value <strong>of</strong> is computed by equation:<br />
WL (12)<br />
d =c~oíz.i.ul!<br />
i=/ L '<br />
WL<br />
where: d, and d. res ectively indicate percentage and mean<br />
diameter o) a certain ?i-th) fraction; summation is made accord-<br />
ing to all the mobile fractions, the number <strong>of</strong> these fractions<br />
is-indicated as<br />
Separation <strong>of</strong><br />
equation:<br />
m.<br />
immobile (coarse) fraction is made by<br />
3<br />
9,o 12 'yl<br />
-<br />
4,t -<br />
i-<br />
L H,<br />
-<br />
The value <strong>of</strong> Vsed is obtained by equation:<br />
fis<br />
= 3,) d, H ~<br />
(13)<br />
( 14)<br />
All the computations <strong>of</strong> bed load transport are made accord-<br />
ing to hydraulic elements mean for time interval A tj.<br />
Annual accumulation <strong>of</strong> all the sediment fractions for the<br />
first year <strong>of</strong> reservoir operation is determined by equation:<br />
where: Pai is gross sediment weight for the 1st year (tons);<br />
and Pa bed j respeCtiVely indicate the Wight <strong>of</strong> suspend-<br />
88 g%hde.ents and bed load for the 1st year (tons)j j is the number<br />
<strong>of</strong> design internali n is the number <strong>of</strong> intervals during a year.<br />
If computation 1s made according to certain areas, then<br />
summation is made for all the areas to obtain gross sedimentation<br />
<strong>of</strong> the reservoir. The obtained value for the whole <strong>of</strong> the reservoir<br />
is transformed into volumetric units:
204<br />
where: Wai is the volume <strong>of</strong> sediments during the 1st ear (m 3 );<br />
P is the weight <strong>of</strong> sediments for the 1 t year (tons5; fs is<br />
&e volumetric weight <strong>of</strong> sediments ( t/m 3 ). After the computation<br />
being done the initial volume <strong>of</strong> the reservoir W is corrected.<br />
The obtained volume <strong>of</strong> the reservoir at the end <strong>of</strong> the 1st year<br />
W, = W - Wa<br />
is used for the computation <strong>of</strong> sedimentation for the<br />
next year. $he computation <strong>of</strong> sedimentation for subsequent years<br />
may be performed in the same way as for the 1st year or by<br />
extrapolation equations considering time attenuation <strong>of</strong> sedimenta-<br />
tion.<br />
It is recommended to use the equation <strong>of</strong> G.I. Shamov for the<br />
computation <strong>of</strong> chronological variations <strong>of</strong> sedimentation:<br />
where: Wa t is the volume <strong>of</strong> Sedimentation (m3) in t years;<br />
M'ad is sedimentation volume during the 1st year (m3) computed<br />
by the methods described above; Wa ext is the extreme volume<br />
<strong>of</strong> sediments in reservoir (m3) approximately computed by<br />
e quat - ion:<br />
3<br />
where: W is the initial volume <strong>of</strong> the reservoir (m ); Wtis<br />
area <strong>of</strong> river cross section (m2) when dischar e is close to<br />
maximm;Ldp is the maximum cross section area fm2) <strong>of</strong> the upper<br />
pool near the dam.<br />
The method is applicable to the reservoir as a whole.<br />
One year should be accepted as a design time interval. In<br />
case <strong>of</strong> correct initial values the method provides variations<br />
<strong>of</strong> reservoir sedimentation close to actual.<br />
REFERENCES<br />
1. Bogoliubova I.V. Resultam polevykh issledovaniy i rascheta<br />
stoka vlekomykh nanosov r. Mzymty (The results <strong>of</strong> field<br />
investigations and bed load discharge computation for the<br />
Mzymta river) Trans. <strong>of</strong> the State Hydrological Inst.,<br />
1968, ~01. 156, PP* 3943.<br />
2. Karauschev A .V . Rechnaya gidravlika (River hydraulic 8) .<br />
Leningrad, ñydrometeorological Publishing House, 1969,<br />
PP. 303-778.<br />
36 Razumikhina K.V . Primenenie formuly transportiruyushchei<br />
sposobnosti dlia rascheta godovogo stoka vzveshennykh<br />
nanosov (Application <strong>of</strong> transporting capacity equation<br />
for the computation <strong>of</strong> annual discharge <strong>of</strong> suspended<br />
sediments). Trans. <strong>of</strong> the State Hydrological Inst., 1969,<br />
vol. 175, ppe 137-154.<br />
4. Ukasania PO raschetu eailenia vodokhranilishch pri str<strong>of</strong>.t;elnom<br />
proektirovanii (Instructions for the computation<br />
<strong>of</strong> reservoirs sedimentation for engineering projects).<br />
Leningrad, Qdrometeorological Publishing House, 1968,<br />
54 PP.<br />
5. Shamov G.I. Recbnye nanoqy (River sediments). Leningrad,<br />
Hydrometeorological Publishing House, 1959, pp. 2-282.
c<br />
Figure 1. - Computation <strong>of</strong> reservoirs sedimentation<br />
205
ABSTRACT<br />
CALCULATION OF RUNOFF IN IRAQ<br />
R.K. KLIGUE, MECHDI EL SACHOB<br />
There given a general characteristic <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f in<br />
Iraq and its distribution <strong>with</strong>in the area <strong>of</strong> the country.<br />
The authots analyse correlation <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f <strong>with</strong> elevation<br />
<strong>of</strong> the territory, river basin area and other factors <strong>with</strong><br />
the aim <strong>of</strong> using these relationships for regions <strong>with</strong>out<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f data. Hydrologic time series analysis <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
and analysis <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f fluctuations through the territory<br />
are cited.<br />
RES UME<br />
On donne la caractéristique générale d'écoulement<br />
fluvial en Irak et sa distribution par la territoire. Sont<br />
analisdes les relations entre écoulement fluvial, l'altitude<br />
de lieu, l'aire de surface réceptrice et d'autres facteurs.<br />
L'objectif de cette analyse d'est utilisation de ces<br />
relations pour les régions avec l'absence des données<br />
d'écoulement. On fait l'analyse des séries hydrologiques<br />
et des variations de débits par la territoire.
208<br />
The investigation <strong>of</strong> river flows in Iraq is <strong>of</strong> great<br />
importance keeping in view the constantly increasing water<br />
balance stress in the country that arouses the necessity to<br />
design special rnultipurpose projects as well as projects<br />
aimed at more complete use <strong>of</strong> water resources by construct-<br />
ing irrigation systems, overyear storage reservoirs, by im-<br />
proving crop management under irrigation and by wider use<br />
<strong>of</strong> groundwaters.<br />
The main rivem<strong>of</strong> Iraq - the Tigris and Euphrates -<br />
cross the oountry by their middle and lower reaches. Con-<br />
fluencing they form a river called Shatt-al-Arab flowing<br />
into the Perbian Gulf. The main tributaries <strong>of</strong> the Tigris<br />
<strong>with</strong>in Iraq are the Greater Zab, Lesser Zab, Adhaim and<br />
Diyala. The Euphrates river have no tributaries on the ter-<br />
ritory <strong>of</strong> the country. The arid regions are characterized<br />
by the existence <strong>of</strong> "wadi".<br />
<strong>Water</strong> resources <strong>of</strong> Iraq are mai<strong>nl</strong>y determined by the<br />
flow <strong>of</strong> the Tigris and Euphrates rivers making about 77.7 km 3<br />
3 3<br />
a year - about 22.2 km flows into the sea and 55.5 km<br />
(71.4%) is used for irrigation, municipal and industrial<br />
water supply and power generation. A considerable part <strong>of</strong><br />
flow is lost due to evaporation, transpiration and filtra-<br />
tion.<br />
The mean annual flow <strong>of</strong> the Euphrates on entering the<br />
territory <strong>of</strong> Iraq is 928 cumecs decreasing downstream (Na -<br />
\I<br />
siriya) to 454 cumecs. Thus, the rate <strong>of</strong> flow changes along<br />
the river length from 3.52 to 1.57 1/s. km'.<br />
The Tigris river on the territory <strong>of</strong> Iraq has several
ig tributaries, which increase its flow from 587 cumecs<br />
209<br />
at Tusan to 1534 cumecs at Salman-Pak. Downstream the flow<br />
decreases due to intensive <strong>with</strong>drawal for irrigation and<br />
makes 49.6 cumecs.at Qalat-Saleh. The mean annual rate <strong>of</strong><br />
flow in the Tigris basin changes from 12.7 l/s.km<br />
2<br />
in the<br />
upper part to 0.26 l/s.km<br />
2<br />
(Qalat-Saleh) in the lower<br />
part .<br />
The coefficient <strong>of</strong> annual flow variation (C,) for the<br />
Tigris and Euphrates changes from 0.26 to 0.31 decreasing<br />
<strong>with</strong> the altitude <strong>of</strong> watershed (Haam, m). It can be ex -<br />
pressed by a correlation:<br />
The flow <strong>of</strong> the Tigris and Euphrates is distributed<br />
very uneven through a yew' - the greater part <strong>of</strong> it falls on<br />
the flood period (April-May), making about eo"/4 in the upper<br />
reaches and 5% - in the lower reaches.<br />
The beginning <strong>of</strong> flood period is closely dependent on<br />
the mean altitude <strong>of</strong> watershed m) and may occur in<br />
January-April. The mean duration <strong>of</strong> flood period in the<br />
piedmont regions is 45 days, in the middle mountain regions -<br />
90 days and in high mountain - 135 days. The more is the<br />
water availability through the year, the longer is the flood<br />
period. Por the year <strong>with</strong> mean water availability the<br />
duration <strong>of</strong> the flood period (I, days) may be calculated<br />
by the equation:<br />
T = Hmean - 20.6<br />
14.4
210<br />
In Icaq the maximum flow <strong>of</strong> rivers occurs due to snow<br />
melting and rain. The rates <strong>of</strong> maximum daily flows <strong>of</strong> the<br />
Tigris river and its tributaries vary from 220 l/s.km2 (the<br />
2<br />
Khaair) and 135 l/s.km (the Greater Zab) in the mountain<br />
2<br />
regions to 1.6 l/s.hm2 (the Tigris-Amara) and 0.71 l/s.hm<br />
(the Qalat-Saleh). in the south <strong>of</strong> the Mesopotamian lowland.<br />
The rates <strong>of</strong> maximum daily flow <strong>of</strong> the Euphrates river vary<br />
from 13.3 l/s.km2 (Hit) to 8.5 l/s.km<br />
2<br />
(downstream the dam<br />
Hindiya). The rates <strong>of</strong> maximum monthly flow <strong>of</strong> the Tigris ri-<br />
2<br />
ver and its tributaries vary from 48 l/a.km (the Greater<br />
2<br />
Zab river at Eski-Kalek) in mountain regions to 0.6 l/s,km<br />
(the Tigris river at Qalat-Saleh) in the south lowlands. For<br />
the Euphrates river the rate <strong>of</strong> maximum monthly flow fluc -<br />
tuate from 8.6 l/s.km<br />
2<br />
(Hit) to 4.0 l/s.km<br />
2<br />
(Nasiriya). As<br />
I rule there is observed an increase in the maximum rates <strong>of</strong><br />
flow throughout the mountain regions a<br />
In the mountain regions <strong>of</strong> Iraq,above 2000 m (the Tigris,<br />
Greater Zab and Euphzlates river basins) the rate <strong>of</strong> maximum<br />
daily river flow increase from 8.5 to 136 l/s.km2, making<br />
the mean about 35 l/e.km<br />
2<br />
for every 100 m. For this region<br />
a certain dependence between maximum rates <strong>of</strong> flow (%ax)<br />
and mean annual rates (Mme= an. ) is traced.
211<br />
In the middle mountain region <strong>with</strong> the altitudes 1000-<br />
2000 m (the Lesser Zab and Diyala basins) the rates <strong>of</strong> maxi-<br />
2<br />
mum daily flow fluctuate <strong>with</strong>in the limits 48-112 l/s.km ,<br />
increasing averagely by 38 l/c,km2 on every 100 m <strong>of</strong> alti-<br />
tude* The dependence <strong>of</strong> maximum and mean annual flows for<br />
this region is expressed by the correlation<br />
- 45.8<br />
%ax äaiïy 0.138<br />
In piedmont regions, lower than 1000 m (AdhaFm and<br />
Khazir river basins) the rates <strong>of</strong> maximum daily flow being<br />
inversely proportional to the altitude <strong>of</strong> watershed increase<br />
from 48 to 220 l/s.km2. The phenomenon is observed in the<br />
case <strong>of</strong> the maximum monthly flow. This can be explained by<br />
the fact that the Khazir river has the lesser, compared to<br />
the Adhaim basin, area <strong>of</strong> watershed but receives greater<br />
rainfall. The dependence between the maximum and mean annual<br />
flows is expressed by the correlation.<br />
%ax monthly = 2.5 %ea* an.<br />
The coefficients <strong>of</strong> maximum daily flow variation for<br />
the rivers <strong>of</strong> Iraq fluctuate <strong>with</strong>in the limits from 0.14<br />
(the Tigris-Amara) to 0.74 (the Adhaim-Injana). The coeffi-<br />
cients <strong>of</strong> maximum monthly flow are limited by 0.18-0.29. There<br />
observed the inverse proportion between coefficients <strong>of</strong> va-<br />
riation and the altitude <strong>of</strong> watershed. The correlation <strong>of</strong><br />
coefficients <strong>of</strong> maximum monthly flow variations (Cv max 1 and<br />
the coefficients <strong>of</strong> annual flow variations (Cv an. ) can be<br />
put as:<br />
'v max monthly =(2*1 'v an. ) - 0.21
212<br />
For the rivers <strong>of</strong> Iraq it is characteristic the increase<br />
<strong>of</strong> maximum flow <strong>with</strong> the decrease <strong>of</strong> the watershed area<br />
(F b2),<br />
Barnax daily = 62 - 0.2 F + -9<br />
Minimum flow usually occurs in autumn (September-Octo-<br />
ber) and is caused by the groundwater depletion by the end<br />
<strong>of</strong> the hot and dry period. Small rivers in piedmont regions<br />
dried up as early as the beginning <strong>of</strong> summer and till the<br />
winter rains they have no flow.<br />
One <strong>of</strong> the most important factors <strong>of</strong> the Iraq rivers<br />
regime is the low-water period, when the river flow is cha-<br />
racterized by stable low levels and discharges and when the<br />
rivers under the condition <strong>of</strong> great reduction <strong>of</strong> surface flow<br />
or its complete cessation are recharged through groundwaters.<br />
Low-water period usually occur in summer or autumn (<strong>of</strong>tener<br />
from June to December). Its beginning (t days from the begin-<br />
ning <strong>of</strong> the year) has a certain dependence on altitude,<br />
OSI75 +<br />
days = 64.6 (jy,ean-lOOO) - K<br />
where, K - coefficient <strong>of</strong> water availability <strong>of</strong> the designed<br />
period. It can vary from + 20 (for high-water period) to -20<br />
(for low-water period). At the mean level it approaches zero.<br />
As a rule the greater is the altitude <strong>of</strong> a watersheii, the<br />
shorter is the period <strong>of</strong> low water. In piedmont zones it<br />
makes averagely 171 days, in middle mountain zones - 159 days<br />
and in high mountain - 153 days. The latter is mai<strong>nl</strong>y due<br />
to more favourable conditions <strong>of</strong> humidification in the moun-<br />
tains where the rainfall reaches 1000 mm than in piedmont re-<br />
gions where the rainfall makes 200-300 m.
213<br />
The rates <strong>of</strong> minimum flows <strong>of</strong> Iraq rivers have a wide<br />
range <strong>of</strong> variations from 0.04 (daily) and O.Oí'(monthly) for<br />
the river Adhaim (Injana) to 5,56 (daily) and 5.71 (monthly)<br />
l/s.km2 for the Greater Zab river (Bekhma). Usually the<br />
rates <strong>of</strong> minimum daily and monthly flows increase <strong>with</strong> the<br />
altitude and this relationship can be expressed ass<br />
10 3 J<br />
'L$in = 5.8 IO-.<br />
On the territory <strong>of</strong> Iraq there observed quite a defi-<br />
nite reduction <strong>of</strong> the minimum flow rates <strong>with</strong> the increase<br />
<strong>of</strong> a watershed area. For example, on the Tigris river at<br />
2<br />
Al-Fatha the minimum monthly flow equals 2.95 l/s.km , the<br />
2<br />
watershed area being 1076b0 km and downstream the Kut bar-<br />
2<br />
rage the flow - 1.35 l/s.km and the watershed area -<br />
177540 b2. For the Greater Zab and Tigris river basins<br />
(high mountain zone) the relationship will be similar,<br />
%in monthly = 6.35 - 3.14 IÕ7F<br />
%in daily = 6.14 - 3.08<br />
The decrease <strong>of</strong> the minimum flow rates <strong>with</strong> the in -<br />
crease <strong>of</strong> a watershed area can be explained mai<strong>nl</strong>y by great<br />
<strong>with</strong>drawals <strong>of</strong> water for irrigation and due to considerable<br />
evaporation.<br />
The mean annual flow <strong>of</strong> Iraq being studied better than<br />
the minimum one their interrelation may arouse certain in-<br />
terest<br />
'min monthly = 'Os4 'mean an.<br />
%in daily = O*** mean an. 0.15
214<br />
These relationships do not reflect the conditions<br />
in the lower reaches where the regime <strong>of</strong> the rivers is great-<br />
ly distorted under the influence <strong>of</strong> anthropogenic factors.<br />
The variations in the flow <strong>of</strong> Iraq rivers (mean, mini-<br />
mum and maximum) occur principally at the same time. For the<br />
investigation <strong>of</strong> the minimum flow variation <strong>of</strong> the Tigris<br />
river (at Mosul, 1920-1970), the Euphrates river (at Hit,<br />
1932-1970) and the Greater Zab river (1938-1970) they used<br />
the method <strong>of</strong> the differential integral curves permitting<br />
to bring out the succession <strong>of</strong> low-water and high-water<br />
groups <strong>of</strong> years in the considered period. The duration <strong>of</strong><br />
low-water periods <strong>with</strong> minimum flow (mean coefficient <strong>of</strong> wa-<br />
ter availability 0.78) can change <strong>with</strong>in 1-18 years (the Tig-<br />
ris river at Mosul) and high-water periods (mean coefficient<br />
<strong>of</strong> water availability 1.24) - <strong>with</strong>in 1-11 years. The coeffi-<br />
cients <strong>of</strong> variation (C,) for minimum monthly and daily river<br />
flows fluctuate from 0.18 (monthly, the Tigris river at Al-<br />
Fatha) and 0.17 (daily, the Euphrates river at Hit) to 1.27<br />
(monthly,the Aähaim river at Injana) and 2.03 (daily, the<br />
Adhaim river at Injana). The value <strong>of</strong> the coefficient <strong>of</strong> va-<br />
riation is inversely proportional to the altitude which is<br />
explainable by a considerable aridity <strong>of</strong> lowland territories<br />
in Iraq.<br />
The values <strong>of</strong> Cv for minimum flow, definitely correlate<br />
to Cv for mean annual flow. For the watersheds where the<br />
<strong>with</strong>drawal <strong>of</strong> water for irrigation is low this relationship<br />
can be expressed by the following empirical equation,<br />
'v min daily = 1 0 ~ 'v ~ mean 5 an.<br />
- 0.16
In Iraq because <strong>of</strong> the drying up many rivers have no<br />
215<br />
flow for a considerable period (the Adhaim, Al-Wend, Galal-<br />
Bedrah, Wadi-river, etc.). The watershed areas <strong>of</strong> drying-up<br />
2<br />
rivers may reach 13000 km (the Aàhaim river) and the dura-<br />
tion <strong>of</strong> a drai<strong>nl</strong>ess period exceed 250 days. In Iraq, especialare<br />
ly, in its south-western part there a numerous strema <strong>of</strong><br />
temporal nature, "wadi", which have flow o<strong>nl</strong>y several days<br />
a year. The length <strong>of</strong> some <strong>of</strong> them reach many tens <strong>of</strong> kilo-<br />
meters. This phenomena is a result <strong>of</strong> the extreme aridiky <strong>of</strong><br />
the region where they are met (the rainfall is less than<br />
100 mm and evaporation - over 2500 mm).<br />
It should be noted that the given relationships <strong>of</strong> &if-<br />
ferent flow characteristics on the territory <strong>of</strong> Iraq despite<br />
their approximate nature and the necessity <strong>of</strong> further preci-<br />
sion, permit to give duly evaluation <strong>of</strong> a number <strong>of</strong> flow pa-<br />
rameters for the insufficiently studied regions <strong>of</strong> the consi-<br />
dered territory.
ABSTRACT<br />
DETERMINATION OF EVAPORATION IN CASE OF THE<br />
ABSENCE OR INADEQUACY OF DATA<br />
P.P. Kuzmin, A.P. Vershinin<br />
State Hydrological Institute<br />
Leningrad, USSR<br />
The possibilities for the determination <strong>of</strong> evaporation<br />
from water surface and land are given in case <strong>of</strong> the absence<br />
<strong>of</strong> data <strong>of</strong> direct evaporation measurements. The analysis and<br />
classificatiqn <strong>of</strong> methods for the computation <strong>of</strong> evaporation<br />
are presented. Practical recommendation for the determination<br />
<strong>of</strong> evaporation by means <strong>of</strong> standard observational data from<br />
hydrometeorological stations are given.<br />
Les auteurs examinent les possibilités d'évaluation de<br />
l'évaporation des surfaces d'eau libre lorsqu'il n'existe pas<br />
d'observation directe. Ils analysent les différentes méthodes<br />
utilisées et en proposent une classification. Ils font des<br />
recommandations pour l'évaluation de l'évaporation 'a partir<br />
des observations standards effectuées dans les stations<br />
hydrométéorologiques.
218<br />
The determination <strong>of</strong> evaporation under natural conditions<br />
is <strong>of</strong> great importance for the ewtimation <strong>of</strong> the present and<br />
future water resources, Por water resources management and<br />
for the solution <strong>of</strong> various theoretical problems in the field<br />
<strong>of</strong> hydrology and meteorology. Methods <strong>of</strong> direct evaporation<br />
measurements under natural conditions are still being developed,<br />
therefore computations are the main source <strong>of</strong> information.<br />
The existing computation methods might be subdivided into<br />
three groups. The first group comprises the methods based on<br />
the physical analysis <strong>of</strong> the evaporation process. The second<br />
group (combined ox complex methods) includes methods based on<br />
physical principles combined <strong>with</strong> semi-empirical constants which<br />
can be determined <strong>with</strong> the help <strong>of</strong> accurate measurements <strong>of</strong><br />
actual evaporation in representative regions.<br />
Methods based on the statistical analysis using o<strong>nl</strong>y<br />
empirical relations, where empirical constants and coefficients<br />
are h igw variable and depend on meteorological conditions,<br />
make the third group.<br />
Besides, according to the basic data (factors) included i-nto<br />
the design schemes, it should be noted that computation methods<br />
may be complex and simple as well as difficult and easy to be<br />
applied in practice. In this respect the most simple and<br />
practicable methods are those <strong>of</strong> the third and some <strong>of</strong> the second<br />
groups, while the methods <strong>of</strong> the first group which are based<br />
on the physical analysis, are most inconvenient in practice.<br />
The first group includes the well-known methods <strong>of</strong> estima-<br />
tion <strong>of</strong> evaporation from heat balance eqqtion, water balance<br />
equation and turbulent diffusion method /ll/; the accurate<br />
solution <strong>of</strong> these equations cannot be obtained because it is<br />
impossible to estimate <strong>with</strong> sufficient degree <strong>of</strong> accuracy some<br />
individual components <strong>of</strong> the above equations.<br />
The estimation <strong>of</strong> the turbulent heat exchange between the<br />
underlying surface (water or land) and the atmosphere is one<br />
<strong>of</strong> the difficultiee <strong>of</strong> the solution <strong>of</strong> heat balance equation.<br />
This component can be estimated approximately <strong>with</strong>out conside-<br />
ration <strong>of</strong> temperature stratification and horizontal gradients<br />
<strong>of</strong> turbulent heat exchange (advection).<br />
In particular, in the course <strong>of</strong> estimating evaporation from<br />
the reservoir surface it is difficult to determine time<br />
variation8 <strong>of</strong> the heat accumulated by the reservoir (heat<br />
content) as well as heat income and losses due to all kind8<br />
<strong>of</strong> water inflow and outflow (both surface and subsurface).<br />
Therefore this method is applied o<strong>nl</strong>y in research studies.<br />
Heat b8Lance equation <strong>of</strong> the land surface is more complicated<br />
than that <strong>of</strong> the water surface /U/#<br />
In the 'USSR, however, 8 method <strong>of</strong> estimating evapotranspira-<br />
tion has been developed and is widely applied,from thefollowing<br />
equation /14/:<br />
ß-B<br />
( 1)
which is deduced <strong>of</strong> the heat<br />
balance <strong>of</strong> the land <strong>with</strong> the<br />
account <strong>of</strong> Bowen ratio:<br />
219<br />
Here: E is evapotranspiration, R is the measured value <strong>of</strong> the<br />
radiation balance <strong>of</strong> the surface, B is heat income into %he<br />
soil, II is the atmospheric pressure, P is turbulent heat<br />
exchange <strong>with</strong> the atmosphere, C is heat capacity under<br />
constat pressure, L is the latgnt heat <strong>of</strong> evaporation;<br />
at and ai are respectively the differences in temperature<br />
and water vapour pressure measured at two levels above the<br />
ground.<br />
Equation (l), naturally, would rather belong to the second<br />
group <strong>of</strong> methods than to the first one; it does not include<br />
horizontal gradients <strong>of</strong> turbulent heat exchange (advection)<br />
and temperature stratification. It can be applied for homogeneous<br />
areas large enough to ensure wind r u over homogeneous<br />
top cover over plain area at the distance <strong>of</strong> 300-400 m.<br />
The relative standard error <strong>of</strong> 10-day and monthly evapotranspiration<br />
sums estimated from equation (1) for the re ions <strong>of</strong><br />
natural moistening and for irrigated fields makes f 1%.<br />
Equation (1) cannot be recommended for the estimation <strong>of</strong><br />
evapotranspiration in very dry regions (semi-deserts, deserts) .<br />
Full water balance equation is not applied in practice<br />
since it is both difficult to determine water exchange <strong>with</strong><br />
the bed <strong>of</strong> reservoir (the difference between underground<br />
water inflow and outflow in a reservoir) while estimating<br />
evaporation from the water surface and to determine water<br />
exchange between the upper layer <strong>of</strong> the aeration zone and the<br />
underlying ground (upward and downward streams <strong>of</strong> moisture in<br />
the ground) while estimating evapotranspiration from the land<br />
surface in a river basin.<br />
In case <strong>of</strong> deep water table ( no lesa than 3-5 m) the<br />
simplified water balance equation is used in the USSR to<br />
estimate evapotranspiration from non-irrigated agricultural<br />
fields; according to this equation evaporation is estimated<br />
from precipitation (x) and the change <strong>of</strong> moisture storage in<br />
the upper soil layer:<br />
E =K+(L4pW.) (2)<br />
where8 W and W are moisture storage in soil at the<br />
beginnid and a? the end <strong>of</strong> the design period.<br />
Equation (2) can be used o<strong>nl</strong>y under the condition that all<br />
precipitation is absorbed by the soil and no surface run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
is formed and besides that the depth <strong>of</strong> rainfall water per-<br />
colation should not exceed the depth up to which soil moisture<br />
content was measured and moisture content was determined. Such<br />
conditions usually exist during the vegetation period. The
220<br />
depth <strong>of</strong> the upper layer <strong>of</strong> soil in which soil moisture storage<br />
should be determined is 1 m in wet areas and up to 3 m in<br />
arid zones. In case <strong>of</strong> reliable estimation <strong>of</strong> precipitation<br />
and moisture storage the standard error <strong>of</strong> the estimation <strong>of</strong><br />
monthly sums <strong>of</strong> evapotranspiration by this method makes<br />
approximately l5-2m. Another example <strong>of</strong> a partial solution<br />
<strong>of</strong> water balance equation is the estimation <strong>of</strong> mean annual<br />
sum8 <strong>of</strong> evapotranspiration as the difference between precipitation<br />
and run<strong>of</strong>f /3/.<br />
Theore tical and experimental development <strong>of</strong> the turbulent<br />
diffusion method which is also known as the gradient or<br />
aerodynamic method, has not yet reached the stage which would<br />
allow its wide application in practice /1,2,9,12,15,16/. However,<br />
this method :is promising. Being universal, this method is<br />
based on gradient measurements <strong>of</strong> wind speed and air humidity<br />
and provides estimation <strong>of</strong> evaporation from any land or sea<br />
surface irrespective <strong>of</strong> the state and character <strong>of</strong> the latter.<br />
Accurate enough (universal) solutions <strong>of</strong> the equations<br />
<strong>of</strong> the first group require a consideration <strong>of</strong> a great number<br />
<strong>of</strong> factors and special observations to be made. The development<br />
<strong>of</strong> simplified semi-empirical and empirical design schemes<br />
will provide possibilities for the estimation <strong>of</strong> evaporation<br />
<strong>with</strong>out the data <strong>of</strong> specialized observations. At present it<br />
seems possible that standard observational data from hydrometeorological<br />
stations are enough far the estimation <strong>of</strong><br />
long term average annual and monthly evaporation sums for<br />
a given territory and monthly evaporation sums for individual<br />
years, as well as for the estimation <strong>of</strong> evaporation from<br />
different surfaces - snow cover, swamps, forests, irrigated<br />
and non-irrigated agricultural fields /1,4,5,10,17/.<br />
Most convenient are the methods <strong>of</strong> computation <strong>of</strong> mean<br />
annual evapotranspiration sums for the regions <strong>of</strong> natural<br />
moistening based on the equation developed by Y.I. Puàyko /IO/.<br />
The right part <strong>of</strong> equation /3/ includes o<strong>nl</strong>y one parameter<br />
taken from standard observational data, i.e. long term average<br />
precipitation X ( cm year'l) which reflects the natural moisture<br />
content <strong>of</strong> a region. Another parameter, reflecting the heat<br />
regime and the character <strong>of</strong> the underlying surface - averag<br />
annual adiation balance <strong>of</strong> moistened surface Ro (kcal cm -2<br />
year - $ is $&en from the map prepared by N . Efimova /IO/.<br />
L is the latent heat <strong>of</strong> evaporation (kcal, $*). The standard<br />
error <strong>of</strong> evaporation estimated from equation (3) makes about<br />
17% /6/0<br />
Mean annual sums estimated from equation /3/ can be<br />
easily distributed by months because long term mean monthly<br />
'
221<br />
evaporation sums given as percenta e <strong>of</strong> the annual sum, change<br />
regularly according to geobotanic ?soil-climatic) zones. This<br />
method is called the method <strong>of</strong> percentage ratios /7/. The<br />
percentage ratios by months are given in tables, developed<br />
by experimental or design ways. Table I, for Instance, presents<br />
monthly evapotranspiration values as percentage <strong>of</strong> annual sums<br />
for the main geobotanic zones <strong>of</strong> the European territory <strong>of</strong> the<br />
USSR .<br />
Table I<br />
C onif mous<br />
forests O 0,5 2 6 17 25 22 15 8 4 O,5 C<br />
Mixed and<br />
decideous forests,<br />
fore st-steppe s 0,5 I 3 9 18 20 ia i3 9 5 3 05<br />
Steppes 1 I 3 1 1 1 9 2 0 1 6 12 8 5 3 I<br />
M.I. Budyko suggested a combined method for the computation<br />
<strong>of</strong> monthly evapotranspiration sums <strong>with</strong> the use <strong>of</strong> the main<br />
elements <strong>of</strong> heat and water balances /1/. This method can be<br />
applied in practice since it is based on the use <strong>of</strong> the standard<br />
observational data, i.e. precipitation (x), run<strong>of</strong>f c y), air<br />
temperature and humiditg.<br />
In this case it is assumed that, when soil moisture content<br />
is less than its water holding capacitg, monthly evapotranspira-<br />
tion ( E ) is proportional to th8 monthly sum <strong>of</strong> potential<br />
evapora8on ( E ) and to the average monthly storage <strong>of</strong><br />
productive moisgure in 1-metre layer <strong>of</strong> soil WI + W2<br />
2<br />
( WI and W2 are moisture storage at the beginning and at the<br />
end <strong>of</strong> the month), that is:
222<br />
where: W is critical storage <strong>of</strong> productive moisture in<br />
soil lay& 1 m deep at which and above which<br />
to Eo. Equations (4) and (5) are applied to<br />
the year. WI at the beginning <strong>of</strong> the first warn month ( Fa<br />
spring) is estimated approximately, and later it is assumed<br />
to be equal to W estimated for the end <strong>of</strong> each previous<br />
month from equatzon:<br />
or from equation:<br />
where: y indicated run<strong>of</strong>f.<br />
Eo and WO are taken from graphs and tables included in<br />
publication /IO/. The value <strong>of</strong> E depends on the conventional<br />
humkdkty deficit <strong>of</strong> the air whicf: is determined as the<br />
difference between maximum water vapour pressure estimated<br />
from mean monthly air temperature, and vapour pressure <strong>of</strong> the<br />
air at the altitude <strong>of</strong> 2 metres.<br />
This method was developed in two variants and is applied<br />
for the estimation <strong>of</strong> long term average monthly evapotranspiration<br />
sums <strong>of</strong> individual months <strong>of</strong> certqin years /4/.<br />
Aver<br />
ed areal evapotranspiration values (areas to 1000 -<br />
3000 km2y are determined from equations (3) and (4) - (7).<br />
<strong>Design</strong> schemes for the determination <strong>of</strong> evapotranspiration<br />
from different kinds <strong>of</strong> surfaces include parameters which are<br />
seldom measured at observational stations. For instance, in<br />
the scheme developed by V.V. Romanov /13/ evapotranspiration<br />
from a swamp is assumed to be proportional to the radiation<br />
balance <strong>of</strong> the swamp surface ( Q =dR ); in the scheme<br />
developed by S.F. Fedorov /18/ evapotranspiration from forests<br />
is proportional to the potential evaporation and the proportion<br />
coefficient is presented as the function <strong>of</strong> the radiation<br />
index <strong>of</strong> dryness ( R/LX).<br />
Monthly sums <strong>of</strong> evapotranspiration from irrigated fields are<br />
estimated <strong>with</strong> the help <strong>of</strong> simplified heat balance equation /i/
223<br />
using special observational data, the standard error bei%<br />
l5%, or <strong>with</strong> the help <strong>of</strong> modified formulae <strong>of</strong> the complex<br />
method /ïg/ usiq standard observational data, the standard<br />
error being 3%. To estimate evapotranspiration from irrigated<br />
agricultural fields empirical design schemes similar to that<br />
<strong>of</strong> Blaney and Criddle /li/ can be used if o<strong>nl</strong>y empirical<br />
coefficients are tested and corrected for each point <strong>of</strong> their<br />
application,<br />
Most simple design schemes allowing estimation <strong>of</strong> evapora-<br />
tion from water, snow and ice surfaces by means <strong>of</strong> standard<br />
observational data, are the following binomial and monomial<br />
equations :<br />
and<br />
(9)<br />
where E is evaporation in mm/day, U, is the wind speed at<br />
the height 2, above the surface in m/sec; es and e2 axe th<br />
maximum water vapour pressure estimated from the surface<br />
temperature and water vapour pressure at the height <strong>of</strong> 2 m<br />
in mb; A, a and b are coefficients estimated from experiments.<br />
Substituting a = 0.18 ab = 0.098 in equation (8) and<br />
assuming z = IO m one can obtain the formula for the estima-<br />
tion <strong>of</strong> evaporation from the snow surface /8,11/,<br />
When a L 0.14, b = 0.72 and z = 2 m, equation /8/ can<br />
be used for the estimation <strong>of</strong> evaporation from lake (reservoir)<br />
surface. In this case in equation (8) parameters uz , e and<br />
e2 shouid be substituted by correspondent values measure8 at<br />
different points above the reservoir and averaged for a month<br />
<strong>with</strong> respect to the whole water area <strong>of</strong> the reservoir,<br />
In case <strong>of</strong> the absence <strong>of</strong> such obsemrational data one can<br />
use the data from land meteorological stations situated in the<br />
same climatic zone. T9e transition <strong>of</strong> the obeained above-land<br />
coefficients &z/ ef and 4; to the corresponding above<br />
reservoir values h ou d be carried out <strong>with</strong> respect to the<br />
transformation <strong>of</strong> the air flux affected by the underlying SUT-<br />
face, the topography <strong>of</strong> the environment, the rate <strong>of</strong> wind<br />
protection <strong>of</strong> the reservoir and the average length <strong>of</strong> wind<br />
run above the reservoir /l7/.<br />
In conclusion it should be mentioned that the present paper
224<br />
deals <strong>with</strong> the methods which can be used in practice and produce<br />
relatively reliable estimates <strong>of</strong> evaporation on the basis <strong>of</strong><br />
standard observational data from meteorological stations.<br />
Therefore more complicated methods <strong>of</strong> the first group<br />
which cause difficulties being applied in practice, and<br />
numerous empirical design schemes which produce unreliable<br />
results, are not treated here. Penman and Turc methods are<br />
not mentioned since they are known well enough. It should be<br />
mentioned as well that the above classification <strong>of</strong> methods<br />
is conventional.<br />
All methods are closely interrelated, and their develop-<br />
ment, particularly the improvement <strong>of</strong> methods <strong>of</strong> computation<br />
in case <strong>of</strong> inadequate data, depends greatly on further<br />
experimental and theore tical research on the evaporation<br />
problem .<br />
R E F E R E N C E S<br />
1. Qudyko Y.I., 1956. Teplovoi balans zemnoi poverkhnosti<br />
(Heat balance <strong>of</strong> the Earth's surface). Hydrometeorological<br />
Publishing House, Leningrad.<br />
2, Buãyko M.I., 1948, Isparenie v estestwenoykh usloviakh<br />
(Evaporation under natural conditions). Hydrometeorological<br />
Publishing House, Leningrad.<br />
3. Wodnye resuray i wodny balans territorii Sovetskogo Sojuza<br />
(<strong>Water</strong> resources and water budget <strong>of</strong> the USSR area).<br />
Hydrometeorological Publishing House, Leningrad, 1967.<br />
4. Zubenok L.I., 1968, Ob opredelenii sumaiarnogo isparenia za<br />
otdelnye godg (On estimation <strong>of</strong> evapotranspiration<br />
during particular years). Trans. <strong>of</strong> GGO, vol. 233,<br />
Leningrad.<br />
5. Konstantinov A.R., Astakhova N.I., Levenko B.A., 1971,<br />
Metoày rascheta isparenia s selskokhoziaystvennykh<br />
polei (Methods for the computation <strong>of</strong> evaporation<br />
from agricultural fields), Hydrometeorological<br />
Publishing House, Leningrad.<br />
6. Kuzmin P.P., 1966. Teoreticheskaya skhema otsenki oshibok<br />
rascheta isparenia s poverkhnosti sushi (Theoretical<br />
scheme <strong>of</strong> evaluation <strong>of</strong> estimation errors <strong>of</strong><br />
evaporation from land). Materials <strong>of</strong> Interagency<br />
meeting on the problem <strong>of</strong> study and substantiation<br />
<strong>of</strong> methods <strong>of</strong> evaporation computations from water<br />
and land. Ed. GGI, Valdai.<br />
7. Kuzmin P.P., Zubenok L.I. Konstantinov A.R., Astakhova N.I.,<br />
Vinogradov V .V . , 1968 . Vnutrigidivie rasprede lenie sumsuschi<br />
na territorii SSSII (Annual distribution <strong>of</strong><br />
evapotranspiration from land over the USSR territon),<br />
Trans. <strong>of</strong> GGI, vol. 151.
225<br />
8. Kuzmin P.P., 1953. K metodike issledovania i zascheta<br />
isparenia s poverkhnosti snezhnogo pokrova. (On<br />
methodology <strong>of</strong> research and computation <strong>of</strong> evaporation<br />
from snow pack surface) Trana. <strong>of</strong> GI, vol.<br />
41 (95).<br />
9. Leichtmap D.L., l9W. Pr<strong>of</strong>il vetra i obmen v prizemnom<br />
sloe atmosfery (Wind pr<strong>of</strong>ile and exchange in the<br />
lowest atmosphere). Izv. AN SSSR, ser. ge<strong>of</strong>is.,<br />
No.1.<br />
IO . Materialy mezhduvedomstvennogo sovetchchania PO probleme<br />
izuchenia i obosnovania metodov rascheta isparenia s<br />
vodnoi poverkhnosti i suchi. (Materials <strong>of</strong> Interagency<br />
meeting on the problem <strong>of</strong> study and substantiation<br />
<strong>of</strong> methods for the computation <strong>of</strong><br />
evaporation from water and land surfaces). Ed.<br />
by GGI, Valdai, 1966.<br />
11. Measurement and estimation <strong>of</strong> evaporation and evapotranspiration.<br />
Technical Note No. 83, WO-N0.201. TP.<br />
105, 1966, Geneva.<br />
12. Monin A.S., Obukhov A.M., 1954. Osnovnye xakonomernosti<br />
turbulentno o peremeshivania v prizemnom sloe<br />
atmospgery $Principal laws <strong>of</strong> turbulent mixing in<br />
the lowest atmosphere) . Trans. <strong>of</strong> Geophysical Inst.,<br />
AN SSR, vol. 24 (151).<br />
13. Romanov V.V., 1962. Isparenie s bolot Xvropeiakoi territorii<br />
SSSR (Evaporation from swamps from the USSR<br />
European territory). Hydromet. Publ. House, Leningrad;<br />
14. Rukovodstvo PO gradientnym nabliudeniam i opredeleniu sostavlia<br />
jushchikh teplovogo balansa (Guide on gradient<br />
observations and determination <strong>of</strong> heat balance components)<br />
* Hydromet. Publ. House, Leningrad, 1962.<br />
15. Rusin N.P., 1959, Gradientny metod opredelenia isparenia<br />
s sushi i ego ispolzovanoe na seti stantsiy (Gradient<br />
method <strong>of</strong> estimation <strong>of</strong> evaporation from land and its<br />
use on the network <strong>of</strong> stations). Trans. <strong>of</strong> III-rd<br />
All-ünion Hydrological Congress, vol. III, Hydromet.<br />
Publ. House , Leningrad.<br />
16. Tbornthwaite C.W. and Holtzman B., 1942. Measurements<br />
<strong>of</strong> evaporation from land and water surfaces. U.S.<br />
Dept. Agr. Technical Bul. 817.<br />
17. Ukazania PO raschetu isparenia s poverkhnosti vodoemov<br />
(Instructions for the computation <strong>of</strong> evaporation from<br />
reservoir surface). Hydromet. Publ. House, Leningrad,<br />
1969<br />
18. Fedorov S.F., 1969. O reaultatakh issledovania digrologicheskoi<br />
roli lesa. (On the research results <strong>of</strong> hydrological<br />
role <strong>of</strong> forest). Trans. <strong>of</strong> GGI, vol. 176.<br />
19. Kharchenko S.I., 1968. Gidrologia oroshaemykh zemel<br />
(Hydroìogy <strong>of</strong> irrigated areas). Hydromet. Publ.<br />
House, Leningrad.
ABSTRACT<br />
OBJECTIVE CRITERIA TO DECLARE A SERIES OF<br />
DATA SUFFICIENT FOR TECHNICAL PURPOSES<br />
by<br />
Penta A., Rossi F.<br />
It is supposed: that for technical purposes it is<br />
necessary to estimate the values xo that an hydrological<br />
variable x may assume <strong>with</strong> a given probability 6; that x can<br />
be measured directly and that its n values have been recorded.<br />
The series <strong>of</strong> the n values <strong>of</strong> x is'defined sufficient<br />
if it consents to estimate xo <strong>with</strong> a reliability adequate for<br />
technical purposes.<br />
By referring to the usual statistical methodologies,<br />
the authors present objective criteria to recognize whether<br />
the series <strong>of</strong> n values is sufficient. The authors furnish some<br />
diagrams that indicate which minimum values <strong>of</strong> n are necessary<br />
for the series to be considered sufficient.<br />
From the diagrams it is evident that for the same values<br />
<strong>of</strong> n the series sufficiency is strictly linked to the variability<br />
<strong>of</strong> x.<br />
Particularly, the authors considere the normal, the lognormal<br />
and the double exponential (Gumbel) distributions, the<br />
m.ost applied laws <strong>of</strong> hydrology.<br />
-- RESUME<br />
On suppose qu'à l'égard du problème technique il faut<br />
estimer les valeurs XQ qu'une variable hydrologique x peut<br />
assumer avec la probabilité 0, que x peut être mesurée et que<br />
n valeurs de x ont été enregistrées.<br />
La série des n valeurs de x est définie suffisante si<br />
par elle on peut estimer xa avec une confiance adéquate au but<br />
du technicien.<br />
En se rapportant aux méthodologies statistiques usuelles<br />
on donne des criteriums objectifs pour reconnaitre si la série<br />
des n valeurs est suffisante.<br />
On donne des diagrammes par lesquelles on indique les<br />
valeurs minima du nombre n qui son necessaires afin que la série<br />
soit suffisante.<br />
D'après les diagrammes il apparait évident que, n ayant<br />
la même valeur, la suffisance de la série dépend de la variabilité<br />
de x.<br />
En particulier, les auteurs considèrent la loi normale,<br />
la loi log-normale e la loi de Gumbel, qui sont plus fréquemment<br />
employées en hydrologie.
228<br />
Symbols and definitions<br />
1: Let us indicate by I<br />
- x , a generic hydrological variable3<br />
-E , ax and y, respectively the mean, the standard deviation<br />
and the coefficient <strong>of</strong> variation <strong>of</strong> the x population;<br />
- @(XI, the distribution function <strong>of</strong> x ;<br />
- xQ, , the value <strong>of</strong> x corresponding to the cumulated probability<br />
@ e<br />
Moreover, let us also indicate by :<br />
- x , <strong>with</strong> 14isn , the n values <strong>of</strong> x registered, in each<br />
single year,iduring the observation period i<br />
- - x and ax, respectively the estimates <strong>of</strong> [ and a ;<br />
- Pix) , the estimate <strong>of</strong> the distribution function (Dix);<br />
- xppa,, the estimate <strong>of</strong><br />
xa ;<br />
- y(xP,@), the sampling coefficient <strong>of</strong> variation <strong>of</strong> 5 E@<br />
2: If x is normally distributed,the best estimate xpsio, <strong>of</strong> x<br />
is obtained [ 1 1 by t<br />
X pn(D = Z + u<br />
@<br />
where u is the value <strong>of</strong> the variable u, that in equation:<br />
@<br />
1 2<br />
2<br />
1<br />
@(U) E -<br />
du (2)<br />
corresponds to the fixed value <strong>of</strong> @ .<br />
The sampling coefficient <strong>of</strong> variation <strong>of</strong> xp could be obtained<br />
approximately [2] by<br />
-@<br />
I<br />
or whenever n is sufficiently high, the equation (3) becomes :<br />
1 +u$/*<br />
i i n<br />
(1)<br />
(3')<br />
(D
3: If x is distributed according to the log-normal function,<br />
having established that y = log x , we indicate by :<br />
- Yi 9 the value <strong>of</strong> y corresponding to the generic value xi ;<br />
I - y and s respectively the mean and the standard .deviation <strong>of</strong><br />
the n values <strong>of</strong> Yi.<br />
Y'<br />
Therefore, the best estimate x <strong>of</strong> x is obtained [a] by<br />
P=UJ 0<br />
(4)<br />
log xp' E y. + U@ 8<br />
=a><br />
Y<br />
229<br />
where the value <strong>of</strong> uUJ is deduced by means <strong>of</strong> equation (2) while the values<br />
<strong>of</strong> y and s are deduced respectively by the equations :<br />
' n<br />
log xi<br />
- 13.1<br />
Y" n<br />
and<br />
r n<br />
s =<br />
Y<br />
n-1<br />
The sampling coefficient <strong>of</strong> variation <strong>of</strong> xPIUJ could be obtained<br />
approximately [ 21 by :<br />
2<br />
1 + u0/2<br />
or, whenever y* is sufficiently mall, the<br />
I 2<br />
- 1 (7)<br />
equation (7) becomes :<br />
4: If x is distributed according to the double exponentlal,namely<br />
@umbel function, an almost correct and efficient estimate xP=@ <strong>of</strong> x UJ is<br />
obtained [4] by :<br />
xppUJ= + K UJ<br />
(8)<br />
where Ka, is the value <strong>of</strong> the variable K that'in the equation :<br />
-- 6<br />
1<br />
K = (0,5772 + In In -<br />
(9)<br />
x a,<br />
corresponde to the fixed vaïue <strong>of</strong>
230<br />
The sampling coefficient <strong>of</strong> variation <strong>of</strong> x could be obtained<br />
approximately [ 21 by :<br />
5: When the variable x is measured in k gaging stations, lying<br />
in a detertnined zone, there exists an hydroloRica1 similitude between the k<br />
stations if the parameters, or some parameters al , z2 , ..... <strong>of</strong> the x<br />
diatribution assume the same value or if they vary from one to another <strong>with</strong> a<br />
known regression relation in function <strong>of</strong> a certain number <strong>of</strong> parameters<br />
y1<br />
y2 ..... '<br />
[5].<br />
The inter-station correlation is the correlation which exists, in<br />
such cases, among the values <strong>of</strong> x registered in them contemporaneously (e.g.<br />
in the same year if maximum and minimum annual values are considered).<br />
Therefore, the information that can be derived from the k stations,<br />
considered all together, in regard to the x distribution parameters al, a2,..<br />
..... is the same as the information furnished by a number k <strong>of</strong> independent<br />
stations. Such a number, known as the equivalent number, depegds both on k<br />
and on the mean interstation correlation coefficient F , thus becoming so<br />
smaller than k, the higher the value <strong>of</strong> F is.<br />
So, e.g. if in the k stations the mean 6 <strong>of</strong> x would assume the<br />
same value, the information that the complex <strong>of</strong> the data registered in the k<br />
etatiomwould furnish in regard to would. be equal 16) to the information<br />
furnished by an equivalent number <strong>of</strong> independent stationsequal to :<br />
k<br />
keE l+F(k-1)<br />
Basic Risk. Uncertainty and Effective Risk<br />
6: Normally, for design purposes, by referring to a given hydrolog&<br />
cal variable x,we indicate by :<br />
xd , the value <strong>of</strong><br />
(deBiRn Value) ;<br />
N , the desinn duration.<br />
x that Is assumed as the basis for the design<br />
Particularly, in a flood problem, we select a value Of so that<br />
there exists a probability <strong>of</strong> failure W that xd will be exceeded<br />
xd<br />
at least<br />
once in N years.<br />
Consêquently, xd coincides <strong>with</strong> the value xD <strong>of</strong> x whlch corre<br />
sponda to a value <strong>of</strong> D <strong>of</strong> the cumulated probability furnished by :
E.g. when N = 25 years and W=0,025, @ is equal to 0,999.<br />
Likewise, in a drought problem, we select a value <strong>of</strong> so<br />
xd<br />
that<br />
there exists a probability <strong>of</strong> failure W that xd will not be exceeded at least<br />
once in N years.<br />
Consequently, instead <strong>of</strong> using equation (121, we must apply the<br />
following equation :<br />
E.g.<br />
1<br />
@ = l -<br />
/N<br />
(1 - w)<br />
when N = 25 years and W = 0,025, @ is equal to 0,001 .<br />
The basic risk is defined [ 71 as the risk that would be encountered<br />
if, by knowing the probability distribution <strong>of</strong> x,we would assume x EX@ .Such<br />
d<br />
risk is measured by means <strong>of</strong> the probability <strong>of</strong> failure<br />
In reality, however, the distribution <strong>of</strong> x is not known. Consequently,<br />
having fixed the basic risk W and having calculated @ by means <strong>of</strong> eqpations<br />
(12) or (131, <strong>with</strong> the use <strong>of</strong> a series <strong>of</strong> n values <strong>of</strong> x,o<strong>nl</strong>y an estimate<br />
x <strong>of</strong> x could be had, aiid, therefore, to assume x = xQ an error<br />
equal toP =?x - xD ) would be made. In reality the effective risk that is<br />
encountered ?;treater than the basic risk due to the uncertainty <strong>with</strong> which<br />
the value <strong>of</strong> x could be estimated.<br />
0<br />
Sufficiency <strong>of</strong> a Single Series <strong>of</strong> Data<br />
7: Once the basic risk W has been determined, to judge whether a<br />
single series <strong>of</strong> data is sufficient for technical purpose4,i.t is necessary to<br />
take into account the uncertainty <strong>with</strong> which x@ could be estimated.<br />
Generally, by considering also the observation periods which are usually<br />
available, a series <strong>of</strong> at least 30+40 data is defined IIlonP and it is<br />
implicitly retained sufficient; a series <strong>with</strong> less than 30+40 data is defined - Vshort1I and is considered insufficient.<br />
In reality, however, such criterion might be erroneous. In fact, if<br />
the uncertainty, <strong>with</strong> which x0 could be estimate, is measured by means <strong>of</strong><br />
y{xp } , from<br />
eq. (31, or eq. (7) or eq. (101, we recognize Immediately that<br />
the sad uncertainty, beside n , depends also on :<br />
i) the variability <strong>of</strong> the hydrological magnitude x being considered,<br />
which can be measured by y ;<br />
w.<br />
231<br />
ii) the probability Q <strong>of</strong> the design value xd , which is a function<br />
<strong>of</strong> the basic risk W and the design duration N.<br />
In particular, let us consider e.g. the annual rainfall depth xuh distributed generally according to the log-normal function [ 81, <strong>with</strong> a coefficient<br />
<strong>of</strong> variation y, which varies from 0,l to 0,9 as we progressively move from<br />
sub-humid zones to semi-arid and arid zones, the mean annual rainfall changes<br />
from vaïues <strong>of</strong> circa i 500 mm to values <strong>of</strong> circa 50 mm [ 9 J .
232<br />
As it could be noticed from the diagram (a) <strong>of</strong> fig. 1, if it were nec<br />
essary to estimate the median value x 5o <strong>of</strong> x,a long series could be retained<br />
sufficient from a technical point <strong>of</strong> v hw for each <strong>of</strong> the possible values <strong>of</strong> yx,<br />
since in no case y{xp, would be greater than 15%.<br />
However, wheh we fix the duration N equal to 25 years and the basic<br />
risk equal to 2,5%, by applying eq. (12) or eq. (13) we notice that we must refer<br />
to values <strong>of</strong> @ equal to 0,999 or 0,001. In this case, from the diagram (b)<br />
<strong>of</strong> fig. 1 it ie evident that a long series <strong>of</strong> data would be sufficient from a<br />
technical point <strong>of</strong> view o<strong>nl</strong>y if y were rather low.<br />
In fact, even for values <strong>of</strong> y, greater than 0,5, Y{X~,~) could<br />
s be greater than 20%.<br />
On the other hand, from the same diagrams (a) and (b) <strong>of</strong> fig. 1 ,it<br />
can be derived that a short series <strong>of</strong> data, which is certai<strong>nl</strong>y insufficient<br />
for values greater than y , could be sufficient if y, would assume too<br />
small values.<br />
Analagoue considerations could be made if x follows the double<br />
exponential distribution by examining the diagrams (a) and (b) <strong>of</strong> fig. 2 in<br />
which are represented the function <strong>of</strong> y{xp, 1 as n and<br />
(corresponding to the distribution mode) -and fi? CD = Y,<br />
0,999.<br />
the Data Registered in Other Stations<br />
for @ P 0,368<br />
9: The regions where regular hydrological measurements have been<br />
taken for a short period <strong>of</strong> observation, have <strong>of</strong>ten arid or semi-arid climate,<br />
therefore, it becomes practically impossible to estimate from a single series<br />
<strong>of</strong> data the values that, <strong>with</strong> a given probability, those magnitudes might assume.<br />
It becomes therefore necessary to recognize if it is possible to improve the<br />
estimate <strong>of</strong> xrp in a given station by using the data obtained in others. As<br />
it is known, to render this possible, it is necessary that the different stations<br />
considered be hydrologically similar (see pgr.5). For this to happen, it is<br />
necessary that the values taken by x in the &d stations depend on common<br />
meteorological and hydrological factors. Consequently, this implies that there<br />
exists an inter-station correlation.<br />
It is udeful to point out that from this point <strong>of</strong> view it is very<br />
important to consider either one <strong>of</strong> the hydrological magnitude. In fact, the<br />
mean inter-station correlation coefficient P is amaller when the daily or<br />
weekly rainfall is considered, while it is greater when we take into account<br />
annual rainfall [ 101 . In the case <strong>of</strong> annual rainfall, in a research conducted<br />
from the information furnished by 1141 pluviometers installed in the Western<br />
D.S. and in the South-West California [lOl, Caffey has shown that the mean<br />
inter-station correlation coefficient F situated in a zone meteorologically<br />
homogeneous varies from Q,30 to 0,SO. In a recent research on pluviometers<br />
installed in Basilicata and in Southern Italy, we have found fn0,5 t 0,6 and
in a research on the Morocco pluviometers, being conducted at the time <strong>of</strong> this<br />
report, r = 0,90 which is still higher.<br />
233<br />
10: By referring to the mean value 6 <strong>of</strong> x, in the diagram <strong>of</strong>.<br />
fig.3, ne have repreeented equation (11) which formulates the law according which<br />
the equivalent number ke <strong>of</strong> independent stations, defined in pgr.5, varies as<br />
a function <strong>of</strong> r' and the number k , <strong>of</strong> statione installed in the zone.<br />
As it can be observed from fig.3, for each value <strong>of</strong> F, ke increasel<br />
at each increase in k ,tending asymptotically toward a maximum value<br />
kernax= F<br />
Consequently, the maximum increase <strong>of</strong> information that is obtained in<br />
regard to 5 by applying the hydrological similitude criteria is inversely<br />
proportional to F . E.g. when F = 0,5 , the information, at the most, could be<br />
doubled; for still greater values <strong>of</strong> ? , which are <strong>of</strong>ten encountered in hydrology,<br />
the advantage obtained could be almost negligible.<br />
On the other hand, no real benefit is obtained by increasing the number<br />
<strong>of</strong> k stations above a certain limit strictly connected to F . To prove this,<br />
we have represented in the diaáram <strong>of</strong> fig.4 the law <strong>with</strong> which - ke<br />
varies as<br />
k<br />
a function <strong>of</strong> k for different values <strong>of</strong> r. As it can be noti$eyxif we are<br />
satisfied <strong>with</strong> the 90% <strong>of</strong> the maximum information that can be obtained, by<br />
ke<br />
accepting that - = 0,9, this objective could be reached <strong>with</strong> o<strong>nl</strong>y 9<br />
k<br />
stations, for F = <strong>with</strong> o<strong>nl</strong>y 4 stations for r 5 0,7.<br />
CONCLUSIONS<br />
11: In eome countries, systematic, reliable, homogenous measurements<br />
have been taken for o<strong>nl</strong>y few years and in few stations. Moreover, to render the<br />
problem more severe, such regions have an arid, or semi-arid climate. Therefore,<br />
due to the extreme variability <strong>of</strong> the hydrological magnitudes, <strong>with</strong> the same<br />
number <strong>of</strong> data, the uncertainty <strong>with</strong> which the probability distribution <strong>of</strong> them<br />
could be estimated, is greater.<br />
Consequently, in the said regions it is particularly important to<br />
utilize all the information that the few available data could furnish, by applying<br />
either correct statistical methods to interpret each single series <strong>of</strong> data and/or<br />
by defining objectively some hydrological similitude criteria that would consent<br />
the interpretation on how the magnitude varies from one station to another.<br />
Particularly, for a reference magnitude x , by applying the hydrolog-<br />
ical similitude criteria, it is possible :<br />
a) to obtain a reliable estimate <strong>of</strong> xo even for points where no<br />
direct measurements <strong>of</strong> x were even taken ;
2 34<br />
b) to improve the estimate <strong>of</strong> x in points where o<strong>nl</strong>y few data<br />
are available.<br />
Q,<br />
The advantages obtained in regard to point b) could be noticeably<br />
limited by the inter-station correlation located <strong>with</strong>in an hydrologically<br />
homogeneous zone.<br />
In any case, o<strong>nl</strong>y when all the information available has been uti-<br />
lized, it is possible to establish whether the data available are sufficient<br />
or not to be used in practical applications.<br />
12: If the available data in the region should be insufficient, a<br />
supplementary research program would be necessary. Even in this case, it is<br />
absolutely necessary to take into account the information furnished by all the<br />
data available so that the research program is carried out in an adequate manner.<br />
On the other hand, we must be well aware <strong>of</strong> the results <strong>of</strong> a short<br />
research program.<br />
In fact, if an appropriate localization <strong>of</strong> the stations is made, it<br />
is useful :<br />
i) to individualize and improve the delimitation <strong>of</strong> the region in<br />
hydrologically homogeneous zones ;<br />
ii) to determine the regression law <strong>of</strong> a variable x as function <strong>of</strong><br />
some parameters which characterize the point or the basin (e.g. the regression<br />
relation <strong>of</strong> the mean rainfall depth vs the level <strong>of</strong> the point or the regression<br />
relation <strong>of</strong> the mean annual run<strong>of</strong>f vs mean annual rainfall).<br />
On the other hand, when both aims have been attained, the research<br />
program could be useful also to estimate the probability distribution <strong>of</strong> x<br />
in different points (or basins) o<strong>nl</strong>y if in the region there are one or more<br />
gaging stations functioning for a long time.
1.<br />
2.<br />
3.<br />
4.<br />
5.<br />
6.<br />
7.<br />
8.<br />
9.<br />
10.<br />
KENDALL M.G. and STUART A., (1967). The Advanced Theory <strong>of</strong> Statistics.<br />
London, Griffin, Vol. 2, 2nd Ed., p.54.<br />
ROSSI F., (1 972) Distribuzione di campionatura di alcune grandezze stg<br />
tistiche. Fac. di Ing. delltllniv. di Napoli, 1st. di Costr. Idr.,<br />
Quad. no 5 .<br />
AITCUISQM J. and BROWN J.A.C., (1957). The Lognormal Distribution.<br />
Cambridge University heas.<br />
235<br />
LOWRaY N.D. and NASH J.E., (1970). Methods <strong>of</strong> Fitting Double Exponential<br />
Distribution. Journal <strong>of</strong> <strong>Hydrology</strong>, 10, pp. 259 - 275.<br />
VIPARELLI C., (1 965). Idrologia applicata all 1 Ingegneria. Parte II, Fond.<br />
Politecnica del Mezzogiorno d'Italia, Napoli.<br />
MATALAS N.C. and BENSON M.A., (1961). Effect <strong>of</strong> Interstation Correlation<br />
on Regression Analysis. Journal <strong>of</strong> Geophysical Research, Vo1.66, nolo.<br />
YEVJEVICH V., (1972). Probability and Statistics in <strong>Hydrology</strong>. <strong>Water</strong><br />
<strong>Resources</strong> Publ., Fort, Collins, Colorado.<br />
MARKQVIC R.D., (1965). Probability Functions <strong>of</strong> Best Fit Distributions <strong>of</strong><br />
Annual Precipitation and Run<strong>of</strong>f. <strong>Hydrology</strong> Papers no 8, Fort Collins, Co-<br />
lorado.<br />
GARCIA-AGREDA R., RASULO G., and VIPARELLI R., (1 973) Pluviometric Zones<br />
and the Criteria to Define their Boundaries for Regions <strong>with</strong> Scarce Data.<br />
Simposio sobre proyectos de recursos hidraùlicos con datos insuficientes,<br />
Madrid.<br />
CAFFEY J.E., (1965). Inter-station Correlations in Annual Precipitation<br />
and in Annual Effective Precipitation. <strong>Hydrology</strong> Papers no 6. Fort Collins,<br />
Colorado.
20 40 60<br />
OBJECTIVE CRITERIA TO DECLARE A SERIES OF DAPA SUFFICIENT I'OR<br />
TECHNICAL PURPOSES<br />
*O n
OBJECTIVE CRITERIA TO DECLARE A SERIES OF DATA SUFTICICNT FOX<br />
TECHNICAL PURPOSES
10<br />
Ke<br />
8<br />
6<br />
4 I<br />
2<br />
O<br />
6 - /<br />
- I<br />
O, 50<br />
Y<br />
O, 70<br />
I<br />
?=%O<br />
10 20 30<br />
1<br />
Fig. 3<br />
OBJECTIVE CRITERIA TO DECLARE A SERIES OF DATA SUFFICIENT FOR<br />
TECHNICAL PURPOSES<br />
I I<br />
I I<br />
1 K. 50
l,oo<br />
0,8 O<br />
0,60<br />
0,4 O<br />
0,20<br />
- 1,oo-<br />
/<br />
Fig. 4<br />
10 20 30 50<br />
40 K<br />
OBJECTIVE CRITERIA TO DECLARE A SERIES OF DATA SUFFICIENT FOR<br />
TECHNICAL PURPOSES
ABSTRACT<br />
SOME CRITERIA USED IN HYDROLOGIC STUDIES<br />
WITH INADEQUATE DATA<br />
Carlos Quintela Góis<br />
In territories where the hydrologic networks are<br />
still scarce, it is necessary to adopt simplified designing<br />
criteria which might lead to sufficiently reliable results.<br />
In this paper those which are normally used for the hydro-<br />
logic characterization <strong>of</strong> the drainage basins under these<br />
conditions are presented and example <strong>of</strong> their application<br />
to Okavango Basin in Angola is given.<br />
RESUME<br />
Dans les territoires où les réseaux hydrologiques<br />
sont encore insuffisants, il faut recourir a des procédés<br />
de c alcul simplifiés qui puissent conduire a des résultats<br />
dignes de confiance. L'auteur expose des méthodes normalement<br />
utilisées pour évaluer. dans de telles conditions<br />
les caractéristiques hydrologiques des bassins, en prenant<br />
pour example du bassin du Cubango, en Angola.<br />
* Civil Engineer - Member <strong>of</strong> the Working Group<br />
<strong>of</strong> the Overseas Ministry (Portugal) for the I.H.D.
242<br />
1. Introduction<br />
In the framework <strong>of</strong> the hydraulic policy which has b en followed for he<br />
last years in the Portuguese Overseas Provinces, the study <strong>of</strong> the general plans<br />
for the development <strong>of</strong> the water resources plays a very important role. In the<br />
two main provinces <strong>of</strong> Africa - Angola and Mozambique - this action led to the fact<br />
that the main drainage basins are already covered by such studies; that enables<br />
an adequate hydroelectric and hydro-agricultural overall planning to be made,<br />
Hydrological studies are obviously the fundamental basis <strong>of</strong> such general plans<br />
because they. determine the hydrologic characterization <strong>of</strong> the basin and from the-<br />
re the preliminary design <strong>of</strong> the several schemes and estimate <strong>of</strong> their potentia -<br />
lities. In this field international cooperation which was achieved <strong>with</strong> the other<br />
territories <strong>of</strong> Southern Africa, as a result <strong>of</strong> established agreements, is also <strong>of</strong><br />
a great importance and it gives an idea <strong>of</strong> the value that water has got for the<br />
common development on that part <strong>of</strong> the world.<br />
The inhospitable characteristics <strong>of</strong> these areas together <strong>with</strong> the communica-<br />
tion difficulties and low human occupation result usually in very scarce and<br />
recent hydrologic networks so that on carrying out hydrologic studies one faces<br />
the difficulty <strong>of</strong> applying the classic methods or those used for more developed<br />
areas.<br />
Therefore it is necessary to adopt approximative methods and special crite -<br />
ria enabling to arrive at sufficiently correct and reliable results for the ai -<br />
med purposes.<br />
In this paper the methods which have been followed for carrying out the abo-<br />
ve mentioned hydrologic studies are presented and the approximate criteria that<br />
have been adopted as a result <strong>of</strong> inadequacy <strong>of</strong> data are pointed out; at the end<br />
a practical example is given for the case <strong>of</strong> a drainage basin in Angola. O<strong>nl</strong>y<br />
the aspects <strong>of</strong> rainfall and run-<strong>of</strong>f in average terms are stressed because they<br />
are <strong>of</strong> most interest for the hydrologic studies <strong>of</strong> general plans.<br />
2. Rainfall<br />
Among the hydrologic data, rainfall is commo<strong>nl</strong>y measured for a longer pe-<br />
riod, even in developing territories. Although networks do not cover satisfacto-
ily the areas to be studied, they enable the characterization <strong>of</strong> the phenomenon<br />
<strong>with</strong> enough accuracy to be achiewed.<br />
243<br />
Usually the daily precipitation data measured in raingauges normally loca-<br />
ted at villages or townships are available. Record periods <strong>of</strong> twenty years ormore,<br />
at least in some <strong>of</strong> the stations, are frequent and the use <strong>of</strong> correlation techni-<br />
ques enables to obtain monthly rainfall all over the stations <strong>of</strong> the network, On<br />
the other hand, uniform rainfall regime <strong>of</strong> the African subtropical regions <strong>with</strong> a<br />
long period <strong>of</strong> four months <strong>with</strong>out precipitation is well known, which makes it ea-<br />
sier to fulfil some failures in the records.<br />
The study <strong>of</strong> that regime is usually done by taking the annual weighed pre-<br />
cipitations obtained from the isohyet maps drawn for the basin. The isohyet me -<br />
thod is considered to be the most adequate when dealing <strong>with</strong> incomplete informa-<br />
tion, because local surveys, topography, etc. may help to introduce corrections<br />
or indicate the best drawing <strong>of</strong> the curves <strong>of</strong> equal precipitation so that a pat-<br />
tern, as close as possible <strong>with</strong> reality, can be obtained. Once the basins have<br />
usually a drainage area <strong>of</strong> tens <strong>of</strong> thousands <strong>of</strong> square kilometers, the used sca-<br />
le for drawing isohyet maps is normally 1:l O00 000.<br />
After those maps are obtained, some characteristic sections are chosen and<br />
the weighed values are determined. These are the bases for the study <strong>of</strong> the rain-<br />
fall regime and periods <strong>of</strong> about 20 years permit the application <strong>of</strong> stochastic me-<br />
thods. Among these, the method <strong>of</strong> Hazen-Foster has been considered to be the most<br />
adequate to interpretate the phenomenon. After graphical and analytical confirma-<br />
tion <strong>of</strong> its applicability, it is possible to obtain the mean annual value and tho-<br />
se corresponding to characteristic return periods. The probability relating to each<br />
one <strong>of</strong> the years <strong>of</strong> the period can be obtained as well.<br />
This analysis gives a first idea <strong>of</strong> the natural sequence <strong>of</strong> the years and<br />
principally the occurence <strong>of</strong> dry periods and their degree <strong>of</strong> drought so that fur-<br />
ther studies for comparison <strong>with</strong> the run-<strong>of</strong>f can be done.<br />
The study <strong>of</strong> rainfall is usually completed <strong>with</strong> a short analysis <strong>of</strong> dry and<br />
wet seasons and mai<strong>nl</strong>y <strong>of</strong> the frequency <strong>with</strong> which longer dry seasons may occur.<br />
3. Run-<strong>of</strong>f<br />
As far as flow measurements are concerned, data is always very scarce and o<strong>nl</strong>y
few flow stations in Portuguese Africa have records available for more than 5 to<br />
10 years. Besides, it has been verified that the study <strong>of</strong> general plans normally<br />
shows the need and lead to the best choice and establishment <strong>of</strong> the hydrometric<br />
networks.<br />
Stochastic methods cannot be applied safely <strong>with</strong> such short periods and<br />
therefore the first approximative criterium to be used is trying to characterize<br />
the available flow record period by relating it <strong>with</strong> the similar period <strong>of</strong> the<br />
rainfall studies. Hence it is possible, as a first approximation, to consider the<br />
same probability <strong>of</strong> occurence for the annual flow and rainfall <strong>of</strong> a certain year.<br />
From this it is <strong>of</strong>ten possible to chose certain years which can be considered<br />
as average or <strong>with</strong> a given degree <strong>of</strong> dryness. Therefore a critical period<br />
corresponding to an unfavourable sequence <strong>of</strong> years can be chosen in order to fix<br />
the storage capacity <strong>of</strong> interannual reservoirs and to obtain a complete regulation<br />
<strong>of</strong> the flows. This sequence is normally formed by an average year followed<br />
by two or more dry years <strong>with</strong> fixed characteristics. Undoubtedly this is an approximate<br />
approach, but experience has shown that for studies at the level <strong>of</strong> general<br />
plans this analysis is quite acceptable and safe because the pessimism in<br />
the reasoning compensates the.uncertainties resulting from the inadequacy <strong>of</strong> data.<br />
Sometimes, as an exception, there exists in the basin a measuring section<br />
<strong>with</strong> a longer period <strong>of</strong> records and for which stochastic methods can be applied.<br />
Two ways can then be followed, (1) correlation analysis <strong>with</strong> other stations <strong>of</strong><br />
the basin, trying to obtain more data for those which have shorter records or<br />
(2) characterization <strong>of</strong> the shorter period by relating it <strong>with</strong> the longer one<br />
<strong>of</strong> that station in a similar way as mentioned in the previous paragraph for the<br />
rainfall.<br />
The first method is not always easy to apply, because the rivers might<br />
show a change <strong>of</strong> regime along their course as a result <strong>of</strong> the phisiography and<br />
correlations are no more valid.<br />
The second one is more reliable and on applying it, it is possible to ar-<br />
rive at safe and easily interpretable results. Normally one can obtain not o<strong>nl</strong>y<br />
the annual flow but also the monthly ones <strong>of</strong> the average and dry )ears <strong>of</strong> the cho-<br />
sen critical period and therefore carry out more reliable regulation studies.
245<br />
The study <strong>of</strong> rainfall/run-<strong>of</strong>f relations has not been, as far as our expe-<br />
rience is concerned, successful for large drainage basins as a method <strong>of</strong> e<strong>nl</strong>ar -<br />
ging the available flow record period. This is probably the result <strong>of</strong> the speci-<br />
al type <strong>of</strong> the rainfall regime <strong>of</strong> those regions - short, heavy and localized storms-<br />
together <strong>with</strong> high temperatures and evaporation rates which affect the usual me-<br />
chanism <strong>of</strong> transforming rainfall into run-<strong>of</strong>f. Besides, this method would o<strong>nl</strong>y<br />
lead to global annual values and its distribution along the year is not possible<br />
to obtain.<br />
4. Application example<br />
4.1 - General characterization <strong>of</strong> the problem<br />
The Okavango is one <strong>of</strong> the three big international rivers <strong>of</strong> the<br />
South <strong>of</strong> Angola. It springs on the central plateau <strong>of</strong> the territory and flows<br />
more or less North-South down to the border <strong>with</strong> Southwest Africa where it<br />
shifts eastwards, forming the border, crossing Kaprivi Strip and spreads in-<br />
to a wide swampy area ( Figure 1).<br />
Its drainage basin in Angola is about 150 O00 km2 from which 61 O00<br />
km2 belong to its main tributary Cuito.<br />
The northern part <strong>of</strong> the basin is the most rainy one and there the<br />
altitudes reach 1 800 m, decreasing gradually southwards to 1 O00 m.Here the<br />
climaté is semi-arid. Rainfall occur in the wet season from October to April;<br />
the other months are dry.<br />
From the geological standpoint, the northwest part <strong>of</strong> the basin is<br />
formed by igneous and metamorphic rocks; sedimentary formations occur in the<br />
rest <strong>of</strong> the basin.<br />
The hydrographic pattern is characteristical as well, the tributa -<br />
ries being normally parallel to each other and flowing North-South. The sha-<br />
pe <strong>of</strong> the beds is ruled by the local geological and topographical conditions.<br />
As far as the vegetation is concerned, it changes from the more or<br />
less dense forest in the North into the savana in the South.<br />
The problem was to carry out the general plan for the development <strong>of</strong>
246<br />
the water resources and obviously the first step was the hydrological study.<br />
In the following chapters a summary will be presented <strong>of</strong> the analy-<br />
sis made for the study <strong>of</strong> the rainfall and run-<strong>of</strong>f, according to the methods<br />
and criteria mentioned above in this paper, once the available data was ina-<br />
dequate.<br />
4.2 - Rainfall studies<br />
For the rainfall studies, the records <strong>of</strong> 28 stations for the period<br />
1943/1970 were available. However, o<strong>nl</strong>y from 1950/51 onwards, the number <strong>of</strong><br />
stations <strong>with</strong> complete records was sufficient and therefore the basical study<br />
period considered was 20 years, from 1950 to 1970. Some shortage <strong>of</strong> monthly<br />
records necessary for the evaluation <strong>of</strong> the annual values was easily overcome<br />
by correlation <strong>with</strong> more complete and reliable stations.<br />
With these annual values, the isohyet maps were drawn on a scale<br />
1:l O00 O00 introducting the influence <strong>of</strong> altitude and other known climatical<br />
factors and avoiding a cold interpretation <strong>of</strong> the plotted values.<br />
After chosing some characteristic sections, the weighed annual rain-<br />
fall was determined and analysed by applying the Foster-Hazen method. Figure<br />
2 shows a diagram <strong>with</strong> the sequence <strong>of</strong> annual precipitation and the correspon-<br />
ding probability graph for a section <strong>of</strong> the main course <strong>of</strong> the river where the<br />
international border starts.<br />
From the joint study <strong>of</strong> these graphs, some conclusions can be drawn.<br />
First <strong>of</strong> all, the applied stochastic method can be considered adequate to interpretate<br />
the phenomenon and therefore it is possible to determine a mean annual<br />
precipitation <strong>of</strong> 950 mm as well as precipitations corresponding to certain<br />
return periods. One can note the occurence <strong>of</strong> a sequence <strong>of</strong> four dry<br />
years which might be considered as the basis <strong>of</strong> the critical period for regulation<br />
purposes.<br />
4.3 - Run-<strong>of</strong>f studies<br />
The basin has 19 flow measuring stations and the records started to<br />
be obtained early in 1963. Before that date, there were some random measure-
247<br />
ments made <strong>with</strong> floating device> but their reliability was doubtful. The net-<br />
work is nowadays equipped <strong>with</strong> automatic level gaugings and flows are measu -<br />
red <strong>with</strong> current meters suspended from steel cables crossing the river from<br />
one bank to the other.<br />
It was then possible to have flow records for a period <strong>of</strong> 7 years<br />
consisting <strong>of</strong> maximum and minimum flows, average daily flows, and consequent-<br />
ly monthly and annual values.<br />
For such a short period stochastic methods are not applicable <strong>with</strong><br />
reliability; nevertheless the analyses made for the rainfall showed that such<br />
period has average characteristics and therefore the mean annual flow can be<br />
estimated by averaging the flows <strong>of</strong> those seven years for every station.<br />
The same criteria cannot be applied to determine the dry year flow,<br />
because in this seven years period (1963/1970) any <strong>of</strong> the years <strong>of</strong> the cri-<br />
tical period obtained from the rainfall study is not included.<br />
Fortunately, there is a station in the international strech measu-<br />
red by the South African Services which has got records for a longer period<br />
(25 years) from 1945 on, although some <strong>of</strong> its valueshave been obtained by cor-<br />
relation. It was then possible for this station to apply the Foster-Hazen rne-<br />
thod which showed a rather well interpretation <strong>of</strong> the phenomenon.<br />
Figure 3 shows in the same way as for the rainfall the diagram <strong>of</strong><br />
annual flow sequence and the probability graph.<br />
The former indicates a notorious resemblance <strong>with</strong> the one <strong>of</strong> the<br />
rainfall, being characteristical the four dry year period 1966/1970. It skws<br />
as well that the period 1963/1970 is an average one and that 1966/67 can re-<br />
present the dry year <strong>of</strong> the critical period.<br />
In order to obtain the annual flows in any section <strong>of</strong> the river,tk<br />
curves showing the variation <strong>of</strong> the specific annual flow <strong>with</strong> the drainage ba-<br />
sin for the average and dry year, were drawn ( Figure 4); these curves show<br />
bi uniform pattern and thus one can consider them sufficiently reliable for<br />
obtainment <strong>of</strong> the desired values.<br />
The regulation <strong>of</strong> flows can be studied by considering the sequence
248<br />
<strong>of</strong> an average year followed by four dry years as determined above.<br />
5. Conclusions<br />
Some criteria normally utilized for hydrological studies <strong>of</strong> the general<br />
plans for the development <strong>of</strong> the water resources <strong>of</strong> rivers in semi-arid areas <strong>of</strong><br />
Portuguese African territories were presented and an example <strong>of</strong> their application<br />
given. The obtained results are obviously approximate but they can be considered<br />
sufficiently safe for the purpose and moreover when decisions would be taken for<br />
the design <strong>of</strong> specific projects further data will be available and then a more re-<br />
liable analysis can be made.<br />
.........................
W<br />
I<br />
I-<br />
249
nm<br />
6 O0<br />
LOO<br />
200<br />
O00<br />
BOO<br />
600<br />
LOO<br />
200<br />
O<br />
Pmm<br />
500<br />
LOO<br />
300<br />
200<br />
100<br />
O00<br />
900<br />
SEQUENCE GRAPH<br />
FOSTER- HAZEN ADJUSTMENT<br />
- a% m m<br />
0 0 0 - N Y i 0 O O 0 0 0 0 O O y> m O b m 6<br />
- N<br />
- < m u > c m m m m a m r n m<br />
FiGQRE 2 - STUDY OF ANNUAL RAINFALL<br />
PROEABILIT Y<br />
YEAR
IL LL<br />
O<br />
io6,'<br />
10 O00<br />
z 9000<br />
I 3<br />
< 8000<br />
z<br />
7000<br />
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IL<br />
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9 o O0<br />
a O00<br />
7 O00<br />
6000<br />
5 O00<br />
4000<br />
3000<br />
2 O00<br />
1 O00<br />
SEQUENCE GRAPH 251<br />
FOSTER- HAZEN ADJUSTMENT<br />
-ri yl In "01<br />
0 0 0 - h i - 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 o ~n m m o i m m<br />
- N<br />
m - m w p i m 01 m 0 . m m m m<br />
PROBABILITY<br />
FIGURE 3 - STUDY OF ANNUAL RUNOFF<br />
i<br />
1
252<br />
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0
AB S TRA CT<br />
UTILIZING CLIMATIC DATA TO APPRAISE POTENTIAL WATER YIELDS<br />
Robert L. Smith"<br />
Precipitation and temperature measurements <strong>of</strong>ten represent the<br />
o<strong>nl</strong>y significant hydrologic data available in developing areas. Initial<br />
assessments <strong>of</strong> potential surface and ground water supplies must build<br />
on this limited climatic base. Early in the planning studies there is<br />
need for an accurate estimate <strong>of</strong> mean annual streamflow, and <strong>of</strong> the<br />
probable variance in annual flows. These determinations can be made<br />
utilizing an empirical function relating the mean annual run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
coefficient to the aforementioned climatic parameters. The relationships<br />
have been tested in a wide range <strong>of</strong> environments, and their general<br />
utility can be extended appreciably <strong>with</strong> limited surface and subsurface<br />
observations. Applicability <strong>of</strong> the recommended relationships is<br />
demonstrated by selected case studies involving a variety <strong>of</strong> problems.<br />
Included are examples illustrating the calculation <strong>of</strong>: (a) mean yields<br />
for ungaged areas, (b) the probability distribution <strong>of</strong> annual flows for<br />
ungaged areas, (c) daily flow duration curves, (d) potential yield <strong>of</strong><br />
selected groundwater areas, and (e) the potential impact <strong>of</strong> precipita-<br />
tion augmentation on surface water supplies.<br />
RESUMEN<br />
A menudo las medidas de precipitación y temperatura son los Úni<br />
cos datos hidrolbgicos disponibles para áreas en desarrollo. Los esti-<br />
mados iniciales sobre abastecimientos potenciales de aguas superficia-<br />
les y subterráneas deben partir de esta limitada base climática. Muy -<br />
pronto en el curso de la planificación se hace necesario un estimado -<br />
preciso del caudal promedio anual y de la variación probable en flujos<br />
anuales. Estas determinaciones pueden hacerse mediante la utilización<br />
de una función empírica relacionando el coeficiente de escorrentía me-<br />
dia anual con los antes mencionados parbmetros climáticos. Este tipo -<br />
de relación ha sido puesto a prueba en una amplia serie de medio am--<br />
bientes y su utilidad general puede extenderse apreciablemente con li-<br />
mitadas observaciones sobre y bajo tierra. El éxito con que se han --<br />
aplicado las relaciones recomendadas se demuestra por medio de casos -<br />
escogidos que cubren una variedad de problemas. Se incluyen ejemplos -<br />
que ilustran el cálculo de: (a) rendimientos promedios para áreas Ca--<br />
rentes de medidas, (b) la distribución probabilística de caudales anua<br />
les en áreas carentes de medidas, (c) curvas diarias de caudal-dura---<br />
ción, (d) rendimiento potencial de áreas de agua subterránea escogidas<br />
y, (e) el impacto potencial de la incrementación de precipitación so--<br />
bre abastecimientos de agua superficial.<br />
-<br />
JI Deane Ackers Pr<strong>of</strong>essor <strong>of</strong> Civil Engineering, University <strong>of</strong> Kansas,<br />
Lawrence, Kansas, USA.
254<br />
The water resources planner is <strong>of</strong>ten required to appraise the water yield<br />
characteristics <strong>of</strong> streams for which flow data is unavailable. In these situ-<br />
ations the initial appraisal has to be based on climatic factors supplemented<br />
by prior experience in similar terrains. This paper presents an empirical<br />
relationship designed to further this appraisal, and which the author has found<br />
useful on a number <strong>of</strong> occasions.<br />
The basic water balance equation applied to a catchment area may be<br />
expressed as<br />
P = R + E + AS (1)<br />
where all temo represent units <strong>of</strong> depth over the catchment area, and P = precipitation,<br />
R = basin outflow, E = evapotranspiration and AS = change in<br />
storage.<br />
For the condition <strong>of</strong> an extended time interval the AS term becomes<br />
negligible. In this case, and after dividing all terms by P, the equation may<br />
be rewritten as<br />
RIP = c = 1 - E/P (2)<br />
Thus, in the long term the run<strong>of</strong>f coefficient C is governed by climatic considerations.<br />
Geographers and agricultural scientists have long utilized climatic<br />
parameters in appraisinz water balance questions relating to management <strong>of</strong> soil<br />
moisture. In 1967 Guisti and Lopez [i] proposed that the mean stream discharge<br />
could be determined as a €unction <strong>of</strong> (a) mean annual precipitation and (b) the<br />
basin climatic index. BCI. The latter is based on the work <strong>of</strong> Thornthwaite i21<br />
Jan *'"I<br />
where P is the average monthly precipitation in centimeters and T is the aver-<br />
age monthly temperature in degrees Centigrade.<br />
If the hypothesis presented by Guisti and Lopez has merit, it should be<br />
possible to develop a relationship between BCI and the deviations from the mean<br />
line dram on a sc.atter diagram <strong>of</strong> average precipitation versus average run<strong>of</strong>f.<br />
Their initial efforts to develop such a relationship were limited to examination<br />
<strong>of</strong> relatively short term data in Puerto Rico. Smith 131 subsequently extended<br />
this approach by examining data from approximately 250 ca.tchments in the<br />
United States and Puerto Rico. The resulting empirical relationship between<br />
the coefficient C in equation (2) and the BCI is graphed in Figure 1. It dif-<br />
fers appreciably from t.he curve initially presented by Guisti and Lopez.<br />
available data provided firm definition <strong>of</strong> the relationship for BCI values<br />
ranging froiri 35 to 150. Currently, extension beyond these limits is most ten-<br />
tati.ve and i.s Eased on the following. The lower end was extended to the obvious<br />
terminal al: the origin. Extension <strong>of</strong> the upper end <strong>of</strong> the curve was based un<br />
concurrer.t appraisal <strong>of</strong> the nature <strong>of</strong> the 13CI vs P relationship in high rainfall<br />
zrens, and on recognition that the change in C <strong>with</strong> X I should be such that the<br />
i.iic.rment.al percent <strong>of</strong> precipitation which becomes run<strong>of</strong>f is constantljr<br />
The
increasing bur never exceeds unity. One word <strong>of</strong> caution. Data utilized in<br />
developing the re1 onship was obtained €rom catchments for which the sub-surface<br />
outflow was negligible. Thus the ruh<strong>of</strong>f calculated by Figure 1 represents<br />
tot91 run<strong>of</strong>f and cannot be directly equated to streamflow in those instances<br />
wtie're a significant percentage <strong>of</strong> the yield' is discharged as sub-surface flow.<br />
Utilization <strong>of</strong> the relationship is enhanced by conversion <strong>of</strong> existing<br />
climatic data into a basic P vs Bdi relationship for the area in question.<br />
Worldwide the relatioriship between BCI' and P varies markedly. Regionally It<br />
preciably <strong>with</strong> topographie considerations. However, for a given<br />
he relationship between BCï and P is weJ.1 defined. Figure 2 illustrates<br />
a typ'ical relationship for a basin in the State <strong>of</strong> Kansas in the central<br />
United States Qhere elevation changes are negqigible, and similar relations fcr<br />
Puerto Rico where elevation is a significant factor. Note that the slope <strong>of</strong> the<br />
relationship also varies slightly <strong>with</strong> location. Figures 1 and 2 caq be used<br />
conjunctively to develop the mean annual rainfall-run<strong>of</strong>f relationship for the<br />
catchment. Experience has shown that actual data will scatter about the curve<br />
so determined because AS is seldom negligible on an annual basis. The individ-<br />
ual curves tend to approach a 45" asymptote as evapotranspiration tends EO<br />
255<br />
become fully satisfied and thereby constant. For example, in Puerto Rico the<br />
evapotranspiration demand is satisfied at all elevations when the rainfall<br />
exceeds SOO centimeters, but the magnitude <strong>of</strong> this consumptive loss is a function<br />
<strong>of</strong> elevation.<br />
The basic C vs BCI relationship has been tested in several ways <strong>with</strong><br />
satisfactosy results. Figure 3 will seme LO illustrate. Figure 3(a) presents<br />
a coiqparisbii <strong>of</strong> calculated versus observed discharge for thirty streams in<br />
Puerto Rico [4]. The calculated values were determined via conjunctive use <strong>of</strong><br />
the appropriate curve from Figure 2 and Figure 1.<br />
Since the qbserved records<br />
wexe relatively short, many no longer than three years in length, the applicable<br />
BCI was based on the average precipitation during the period <strong>of</strong> observed stream-<br />
flow. BCI values for these streams range from 49 to 178. Figure 3(b) presents<br />
the mean annual precipitation versus mean aqnual run<strong>of</strong>f relationship €or the<br />
State <strong>of</strong> Kansas. The solid curve thereon was based on observed data from 122<br />
basins [5]. The dashed cuí-ve was calculated using the Kansas curve <strong>of</strong> Figure 2<br />
and Lhe basic coefficient chart <strong>of</strong> Figure 1. Basin BCI values for the ctndition<br />
<strong>of</strong> mean precipitation range from 25 to 70.<br />
The basic relationships can also be utilized to appraise possible stream<br />
response under several yeats <strong>of</strong> above or below nomal precipitation. For example,<br />
in recent years appretiable attention has been directed to the potential<br />
application <strong>of</strong> weather modification tachniqves in improving water supply con-<br />
dtionc.<br />
Although the bulk <strong>of</strong> the research effoxt has been directed toward<br />
seeding techniques and understanding the mechanisms <strong>of</strong> cloud physics, several<br />
investigators in the 1Jnited States, via the use <strong>of</strong> hydrologic simulation techniques,<br />
have attempted LO explore how streams would respond to a given increase<br />
in precipitation. The relationships in Figures 1 and 2 can be utilized to<br />
estimate the percent gain in run<strong>of</strong>f thaL will oc €or a given increase in<br />
average precipi tatjon. Let the subscript I represent natural conaitioi-s, subscript<br />
2 represent augmented conditions, and the symbol PM equal P2/P,. Then
256<br />
Percent gain in run<strong>of</strong>f = 100 - = 100<br />
Ri<br />
PC-PC (PM1 c*-cl<br />
22 113100 (4 1<br />
plcl cl<br />
Table 1 summarizes the impact <strong>of</strong> precipitation augmentation on water yield<br />
as determined by hydrologic simulation and as reported by Linsley and Crawford<br />
[6], Crawford [7], Lumb [8] and Smith [3]. The first three authors utilized<br />
the Stanford <strong>Water</strong>shed Model and the latter utilized the Kansas <strong>Water</strong>shed Model.<br />
In aggregate, these investigators conducted simulations on 14 separate watersheds,<br />
13 in the United States and one in New South Wales. The last two columns<br />
provide a comparison <strong>of</strong> the average increase in yield as determined by<br />
simulation and as estimated by use <strong>of</strong> Figure 1.<br />
The calculations assumed that<br />
the slope <strong>of</strong> the BCI vs P relationship was equivalent to the typical Kansas<br />
curve. This approximation introduces some error because the slope <strong>of</strong> this<br />
relationship does vary slightly from watershed to watershed, Nonetheless, the<br />
calculated and simulated values are -most comparable. Examination <strong>of</strong> the computer<br />
simulations again reveals that year to year increases scatter about the<br />
mean value listed in the table. - Table 1 - Comparative evaluation <strong>of</strong> the impact <strong>of</strong> precipitation aiigmentatiun<br />
on mean yield.<br />
-<br />
-<br />
,ength lbserved<br />
<strong>of</strong> Period<br />
'eriod ainfall -- Run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
'ears cm/year iainf all PM<br />
One HundredlTen Mile Creek,<br />
Kansas -<br />
Stranger Creek, Kansas - 11<br />
Doniphan Creek, Kansas - i/<br />
Black Vermi lion River,<br />
Kansas A<br />
Salt Creek, Kansas - 11<br />
17<br />
17<br />
17<br />
20<br />
8<br />
14<br />
14<br />
14<br />
8<br />
88.4<br />
88.4<br />
88.4<br />
90.5<br />
86.4<br />
77.5<br />
77.5<br />
77.5<br />
58.0<br />
.205<br />
.205<br />
,205<br />
.200<br />
.261<br />
.125<br />
.125<br />
.125<br />
,066<br />
1.05<br />
1.10<br />
1.20<br />
1.10<br />
1.10<br />
1.05<br />
1.10<br />
1.20<br />
1.05<br />
S. Fk. Solomon River, Ks - 11<br />
Beaver Creek, Kansas<br />
Cottonwood Creek, Calif. - 21<br />
8<br />
8<br />
20<br />
21<br />
2<br />
58.0<br />
58.0<br />
53.1<br />
45.6<br />
40.9<br />
.O66<br />
.O66<br />
.O57<br />
.O16<br />
,080<br />
1.10<br />
1.20<br />
1.10<br />
1.10<br />
1.15<br />
Wollombi Brook, 3l<br />
New South Wales -31<br />
5 107.7 .141 1.10<br />
Beargrass Creek, Ky T~ 5 110.6 .403 1.10<br />
Arroyo Seco, Calif. -<br />
5 68.2 .386 1.10<br />
LaBrea Creek, Calif. -4/<br />
41<br />
18 28.6 .O84 1.10<br />
Dry Creek, California - 22 130.0 .472 1.10<br />
Saxtons River, Vermont - 41<br />
16 111.6 .499 1.10<br />
- i/ From data presented by rn i70)<br />
- 2/ From data presented by Linsley and Crawford (1962)<br />
- 3/ From data presented by Crawford (1965)<br />
- 4/ From data presented by Lumb (1969)<br />
5/ Not calculated<br />
-<br />
-<br />
-<br />
% Gain i<br />
Computer<br />
#irnulatiori<br />
16<br />
33<br />
74<br />
35<br />
30<br />
21<br />
41<br />
94<br />
23<br />
49<br />
107<br />
41<br />
62<br />
82<br />
35<br />
20<br />
19<br />
41<br />
18<br />
19<br />
Run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
:alculated<br />
17<br />
34<br />
70<br />
32<br />
31<br />
22<br />
40<br />
87<br />
26<br />
52<br />
117<br />
53<br />
- 51<br />
78<br />
40<br />
25<br />
24<br />
44<br />
20<br />
20
257<br />
Earlier reference was made to the fact that a plotting .<strong>of</strong> annual precipitation-run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
values for a given basin will scatter about the mean annual relationship<br />
one develops <strong>with</strong> Figure 1 and the basin applicable Figure 2. Also,<br />
it was noted that year to year percentage gains in flow from precipitation<br />
augmentation, and as determined by computer simulation, would scatter about the<br />
average gain observed for the entire period <strong>of</strong> record. This scattering is due<br />
to the well established phenomenon <strong>of</strong> hydrologic persistence and reflects shortterm<br />
storage changes. Question arises, therefore, as to whether the relation-<br />
ship can be used to determine flow characteristics other than the mean.<br />
answer is yes but a reasonable amount <strong>of</strong> judgment is required. Determination<br />
<strong>of</strong> the distribution <strong>of</strong> annual flows will serve to illustrate.<br />
Available climatic data can be utilized to develop the probability<br />
distribution <strong>of</strong> basinwide annual precipitation, and the basin average curve<br />
for Figure 2. When working <strong>with</strong> a basin whose geologic structure is not conducive<br />
to the development <strong>of</strong> significant baseflow components, i.e., a basin<br />
<strong>with</strong> minimum persistence characteristi.cs, an estimate <strong>of</strong> the prcbability distribution<br />
<strong>of</strong> annual flows can be developed by direct application <strong>of</strong> the pre-<br />
cipitation probability function to Figures 2 and 1.<br />
Figure 4 provides a<br />
comparison <strong>of</strong> calculated and observed annual run<strong>of</strong>f distributions for the<br />
Marias des Cygnes River, Kansas, USA. This basin has little natural storage<br />
and experiences a wide range. in annual precipitation, from less than 50 an to<br />
more than 150 a.<br />
Experience has shown that the foregoing approach is generally applicable<br />
to the above average years. However, where lag or persistence is expected to<br />
be a significant factor the lower portion <strong>of</strong> the distribution function should<br />
be handled differently. In this case, replotting <strong>of</strong> the precipitation proba-<br />
bility function using a two year running average will provide a more appropriate<br />
solution. The effect, <strong>of</strong> course, is to convert the naturally skewed distribu-<br />
tion which results from direct application <strong>of</strong> the basic coefficient relation-<br />
ship to a more normal distribution so <strong>of</strong>ten encountered in the annual flow<br />
relationship. Exercise <strong>of</strong> the judgment option inherent in the alternative<br />
approaches outlined above requires that the planner be cognizant <strong>of</strong> the nature<br />
<strong>of</strong> typical distribution functions in basins <strong>of</strong> similar geologic character.<br />
For areas where freeze is <strong>of</strong> minor concern mean monthly yields can be<br />
estimated by allocating monthly values in proportion to their contribution to<br />
the BCI as defined in equation (3). However, this calculation should be made<br />
using the average two month running total due, again, to the problem <strong>of</strong> lag.<br />
Extension <strong>of</strong> this concept as a means <strong>of</strong> developing a stochastic generator <strong>of</strong><br />
monthly yield needed for preliminary appraisal <strong>of</strong> storage-yield relations is<br />
currently underway.<br />
That is, monthly BCI values based on two month running<br />
averages are being utilized to determine the regression, correlation, and<br />
standard deviation parameters required for stochastic generation <strong>of</strong> long term<br />
monthly yield 191.<br />
Utility <strong>of</strong> the basic relationships can be extended to the determination<br />
<strong>of</strong> additional flow characteristics <strong>with</strong> the acquisition <strong>of</strong> certain short-term<br />
The
258<br />
and miscellaneous field measurements. For example, experience has shown that a<br />
daily flow duration curve obtained from a short-term record acquired over a pe-<br />
riod <strong>of</strong> two to three years can be adjusted to a long-term appraisal if the ordi-<br />
nates <strong>of</strong> the short-term record are expressed as a dimensio<strong>nl</strong>ess ratio to the<br />
average flow observed during the short record period. Subsequent mul.tiplication<br />
<strong>of</strong> these ratios by the long-term mean as determined from Figures 1 and 2 will<br />
provide a reasonable approximation <strong>of</strong> the long-term flow duration curve,<br />
The relations described herein have also proven useful in appraising the<br />
potential yield characteristics <strong>of</strong> coastal aquifers in southern Puerto Rico [IO'.<br />
Historic groundwater use from these aquifers far exceeds the possib1.e direct<br />
recharge assuming all the locally generated flow, as determined from Figure 1,<br />
is di.verted to the groundwater aquifer. In this case the principle recharge<br />
mechanism, excluding the recirculation effect <strong>of</strong> well irrigation, is infi.l.tration<br />
<strong>of</strong> surface water as it flows across the alluvial plain. Figures 1 and 2<br />
were utilized to determine the mean surface inflow from the mountainous central<br />
core at Lne point where the water entered the coastal plain. Following the<br />
analysis <strong>of</strong> various short-term flow duration records which were available, this<br />
mean yield was converted to a daily flow duration curve as described above.<br />
Local stream seepage measurements , available from the U. S. Geological Survey,<br />
were coupled <strong>with</strong> other similar information from prior studies to develop a<br />
channel infiltration rate as a function <strong>of</strong> channel width and slope.<br />
Applica-<br />
tion <strong>of</strong> the potential loss capacity <strong>of</strong> each channel to its flow duration curve<br />
allowed subdivision <strong>of</strong> the surface flow into two components; the portion which<br />
was infiltrated into the subsurface and the portion which escaped tcj th* sea.<br />
An areal mass balance was then performed to determine the magnitude <strong>of</strong> trie<br />
subsurface discharge to the sea (precipitation on the plain plus streamflow<br />
from the mountains minus the sum <strong>of</strong> direct local run<strong>of</strong>f plus evapotranspiration<br />
plus surface flow escaping to the sea). The recharge due to infiltration and<br />
the subsurface discharge to the sea, both as determined above, were then incor-<br />
porated in a subsequent mass balance <strong>of</strong> the subsurtace aquifer in which ïwliarge<br />
was equated to ilet pumping (gross p-mpirig minus recirculation or return flow)<br />
plu: subsurface discharge tu the sea. The calculations were repeated '01 con-<br />
dition? other than the mean, e.g., the vondition <strong>of</strong> protracted drouth. Results<br />
<strong>of</strong> these calculations provided a satisfactory explanation <strong>of</strong> the respons< in<br />
aquiftr water levels that has been expeiienced during both noimal and subnormd<br />
climatic condi t I .,ns.<br />
One additional word <strong>of</strong> caution beforc losjxg this discussion. The<br />
estimates obtained from Figures 1 and 2 as2uine natural catchments, and wtural<br />
climatic ,oriditLons. Whenever man's activities have materially altered he<br />
naturai environment, e.g., by applicatio? <strong>of</strong> irrigation water or the I UI~ ruc-<br />
tion <strong>of</strong> appreciable impervious areas, adjustments must be niade. The fc,l 3ing<br />
will serve L'J illustrate.<br />
Thr lower 6500 hectares <strong>of</strong> Cherry Creek, Colorado is partially iirbanized.<br />
Approxinial eli' 15 percent <strong>of</strong> the area is impervious surface for which hie run..ff<br />
coefficient appioxiniates 0.9, and an addit,( nai 10 perrent is in urban awns<br />
which are heavily irrigated (an average <strong>of</strong> ~uciut t.7 cm per year). 'Hie mem<br />
anmal rainfall appri,. hates 38 m . nd ';c tesponding BCI Is 32. The ad-jii. ;. I:
BCI for the irrigated area approximates 87. An estimate <strong>of</strong> annual yield, <strong>with</strong><br />
and <strong>with</strong>out consideration <strong>of</strong> the man induced changes, is summarized below.<br />
-<br />
Percent Moisture Applied Weighted Run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
Area (a.) C cm.<br />
Natural Conditions<br />
Modified Conditions<br />
100 38 .O25 .97<br />
Natural<br />
Impervious<br />
Irrigated<br />
55<br />
15<br />
30<br />
38<br />
38<br />
104<br />
.O25<br />
.goo<br />
.320<br />
.52<br />
5.12<br />
- 10.00<br />
15.64<br />
The observed mean annual discharge from this 6500 hectare portion <strong>of</strong> the basin<br />
for the four calendar years 1966-69 was approximately 16 centimeters.<br />
The foregoing example is <strong>of</strong> interest on two counts. First, it illustrates<br />
the procedure required for adjusting the appraisal <strong>of</strong> mean yield to accommodate<br />
significant man induced changes. Second, it provides a relatively unique exam-<br />
ple <strong>of</strong> the impact <strong>of</strong> urbanization on flow response.. In many areas the effect <strong>of</strong><br />
urbanization is to reduce the opportunity for recharge and thus diminish baseflow<br />
contributions. The reverse is true for the example cited above. .Here, the im-<br />
pact <strong>of</strong> lawn irrigation in a relatively dry climate has created a substantial<br />
baseflow contribution to the stream and a significant increase in overall yield.<br />
In summary, precipitation and temperature measurements <strong>of</strong>ten represent the<br />
o<strong>nl</strong>y significant hydrologic data available to the water resources planner. AE<br />
empirical function relating the mean run<strong>of</strong>f coefficient to the aforementioned<br />
parameters hac been developed. The relationship has been tested in a wide<br />
range <strong>of</strong> environments, and has proven most useful in undertaking preliminary<br />
assessments <strong>of</strong> water availability. The general utility <strong>of</strong> the relationship can<br />
be extended appreciably <strong>with</strong> limited field data and the application <strong>of</strong> basic<br />
hydrologic concepts. Continued exploration <strong>of</strong> the utilization <strong>of</strong> climatic data<br />
in the preliminary appraisal <strong>of</strong> water yield characteristics must be encouraged.<br />
Acknowledgements<br />
A portion <strong>of</strong> the material described herein was deve.loped during conduct <strong>of</strong><br />
a research project sponsored by the Kansas <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Research Institute<br />
and the Office <strong>of</strong> <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong>, U. â. Department <strong>of</strong> the Interior. The<br />
author is also indebted to Black & Veatch, Consulting Engineers, Kansas City,<br />
Missouri; R. A. Domenech & Associates, Hato Rey, Puerto Rico; and the Puerto<br />
Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority for permission to cite information developed<br />
by these several <strong>of</strong>fices in their analysis <strong>of</strong> water availability in Puerto Rico.<br />
References Cited<br />
1. Guisti, E.V. and Lopez, M.A., (1967). Climate and streamflow <strong>of</strong> Puerto<br />
Rico, Carribbean Journal <strong>of</strong> Science, Vol. 7, pp 87-93.<br />
259
260<br />
2. Thornthwalte, C. W., (1931). The climates <strong>of</strong> North America according to a<br />
qew classification, Geographic Review, Vol. 21, pp 633-55.<br />
3.<br />
4.<br />
5.<br />
6.<br />
7.<br />
8.<br />
9.<br />
10.<br />
Smith, RL., (1970). <strong>Water</strong> utilization aspects <strong>of</strong> weather modification in<br />
Kansas, Contribution No. 46, Kansas <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Research Institute,<br />
Lawrence, Kansas.<br />
Black & Veatch - R. A. Domenech & Assoc., (1971). <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> <strong>of</strong><br />
Puerto Rico, phase 2, surface water appraisal, Puerto Rico Aqueduct<br />
and Sewer Authority, San Juan, Puerto Rico.<br />
Furness, L.W., (1959). Kansas streamflow characteristics, part 1, flow<br />
duration, Kansas <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Board Technical Report No. 1, Topeka,<br />
Kansas.<br />
Linsley, B.K. and Crawford, N.H., (1963). Estimate <strong>of</strong> the hydrologic<br />
results <strong>of</strong> rainfall augmentation, Journal <strong>of</strong> Applied Meteorology,<br />
Vol. 2, NO. 3, pp 426-427.<br />
Crawford, N.H., (1965). Hydrologic consequences <strong>of</strong> weather modification:<br />
case studies, Human Dimensions <strong>of</strong> the Atmosphere, University <strong>of</strong> Chicago<br />
Press, Chicago, Illinois, pp 41-57.<br />
Lumb, A.M., (1969). Hydrologic effects <strong>of</strong> rainfall augmentation, Tech.<br />
Report 116, Dept. <strong>of</strong> Civil Engineering, Stanford University, Palo<br />
Alto, Calif ornia.<br />
Thomas, KA., Jr. and Fiering, M., (1962). Mathematical synthesis <strong>of</strong><br />
streamflow sequences for the analysis <strong>of</strong> river basins by simulation,<br />
<strong>Design</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Water</strong> Resource Systems, Chapter 12, Harvard Press, Cambridge,<br />
Mass achuse t t s.<br />
Black & Veatch - R. A. Domenech & Assoc., (1970). <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> <strong>of</strong><br />
Puerto Rico, phase 1, ground water appraisal, Puerto Rico Aqueduct<br />
and Sewer Authority, San Juan, Puerto Rico.
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Figure 1 - Basic climatic index related to the ratio <strong>of</strong> mean run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
divided by mean precipitation<br />
261
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PUERTO RICO CURVES<br />
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MEAN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION - CENTIMETERS<br />
Figure 2 - Selected examples <strong>of</strong> the relationship between precipitation<br />
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MEAFJ ANNUAL RAINFAL.LA<br />
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Figure 3 - Sone canparative rec4ults obtaiiied <strong>with</strong> the basic BCI vs C<br />
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Figure 4 - An example plot <strong>of</strong> calculated versus observed probability<br />
distribution <strong>of</strong> annual flows<br />
O
ABSTRACT<br />
DETERMINATION OF HYDROLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS<br />
IN POINTS WITHOUT DIRECT HYDROMETRIC DATA<br />
S i 1 v i u S t an e s c u Jc<br />
In Colombia, hydrological information is very scarce.<br />
Consequently no direct hydrometric data are available for most<br />
<strong>of</strong> the sites <strong>of</strong> projected hydrotechnical works and exploitation<br />
<strong>of</strong> water. Therefore one must generally apply methods <strong>of</strong> generalization,<br />
transfer <strong>of</strong> direct information from observed points<br />
to points <strong>of</strong> interest, and indirect estimation <strong>of</strong> the hydrological<br />
characteristics. In relation <strong>with</strong> this, there are several<br />
proceedings <strong>of</strong> indirect determination <strong>of</strong> mean, maximum and<br />
minimum run<strong>of</strong>f, as well as <strong>of</strong> other characteristics <strong>of</strong> the<br />
hydrological regime which are applied to the concrete conditions<br />
<strong>of</strong> Colombia. The examples, which are included to illustrate the<br />
application <strong>of</strong> the methods pointed out, are selected from complex<br />
hydrological studies, elaborated or in the process <strong>of</strong> elaboration,<br />
<strong>with</strong>in the frame <strong>of</strong> the activities <strong>of</strong> interpretation and hydrological<br />
calculations worked out in the Colombian Service <strong>of</strong> Meteoro -<br />
logy and <strong>Hydrology</strong>.<br />
RESUMEN<br />
En Colombia, la información hidrológica es muy escasa. Co-<br />
mo consecuencia, la mayoría de los sitios de proyectos de obras -<br />
hidrotécnicas y aprovechamientos de agua no disponen de datos hi-<br />
drométricos directos. De tal manera, se deben aplicar ampliamente<br />
métodos de generalización, de transferencia de información direc-<br />
ta desde puntos en que se dispone de observaciones y mediciones -<br />
hacia puntos de interés práctico, así como métodos de calculo in-<br />
directo de las características hidrológicas. Relacionado con esto,<br />
se presentan varios procedimientos de determinación indirecta de<br />
caudales medios, máximos y minimos, así como de otras caracteris-<br />
ticas del régimen hidrológico, aplicados a las condiciones concre<br />
tas de Colombia. Los ejemplos que se incluyen para ilustrar la -<br />
aplicación de los métodos indicados son seleccionados de estudios<br />
hidrológicos complejos, elaborados o en curso de elaboración den-<br />
tro del marco de labores de interpretación y cálculos hidrológi--<br />
cos desarrollados en el Servicio Colombiano de Meteorología e Hi-<br />
drología.<br />
* <strong>Hydrology</strong> Expert - World Meteorological Organization and United<br />
Nations Development - Program. Bogotá, Colombia - Servicio Co--<br />
lombiano de Meteorología e Hidrología.<br />
-
266<br />
Introduction and generali ties<br />
In Colombia, owing to the scarcity <strong>of</strong> direct hydrometric<br />
information, in most <strong>of</strong> tile specific cases, the sites <strong>of</strong> hydro-<br />
technical works, water uses or other works which come in direct<br />
or indirect contact <strong>with</strong> the rivers, do not coincide <strong>with</strong> the<br />
sites <strong>of</strong> the hydrometric stations. In such cases, the necessary<br />
hydrological parameters must be determined by methods <strong>of</strong> indirect<br />
estimation. The indirect nydrologic estimations are not however<br />
considered as final values, but o<strong>nl</strong>y used in an approximate way<br />
or for guidance. The magnitude <strong>of</strong> these estimations is verified<br />
by means <strong>of</strong> hydrological field activities, which are generally<br />
grouped into two categories:<br />
a) Temporary hydrometric stations.<br />
b) Expeditional hydrological activities.<br />
The temporary hydrometric stations <strong>with</strong> intensive and complex<br />
programs <strong>of</strong> observations and measurements have been widely used<br />
in Colombia, and in particular for dam and reservoir projects<br />
for hydroenergetic purposes, drinking and industrial water uses,<br />
for the most important towns in the country, irrigation and<br />
drainage districts <strong>of</strong> national importance, and, to a lesser<br />
extent, for navegation, construction arid protection <strong>of</strong> bridges,<br />
and also for preservation <strong>of</strong> hydrographic basins.<br />
The expeditional hydrological activities have also encountered<br />
a very wide field <strong>of</strong> application, especially in aqueduct projects<br />
for medium and small towns, road bridges and sewers, land use<br />
programming, reforestation programmes,.prefeasibility studies for<br />
work projects which come in direct or indirect contact <strong>with</strong> the<br />
water currents, and also when planning the use <strong>of</strong> hydric resources.<br />
Regarding this latter aspect, the expeditional hydrological<br />
activities not o<strong>nl</strong>y act as a means <strong>of</strong> verifying indirect Iiydrological<br />
estimations, but tiicy moreover constitute almost UE o<strong>nl</strong>y<br />
really acceptable and reliable way <strong>of</strong> assessing the scope <strong>of</strong> the<br />
hydrological parameters in over half the national territory (in<br />
other words 60ú- 000 km2) , where the stationary hydrological<br />
activities are almost completely missing.<br />
The use <strong>of</strong> temporary hydrometric stations is very similar to<br />
the use <strong>of</strong> what are normally called secondary stations. As this<br />
is generally a known method, no details on this question will be<br />
given. O<strong>nl</strong>y the most important features <strong>of</strong> the problem will be<br />
presented.<br />
More emphasis however will be made when describing<br />
the most usual methods <strong>of</strong> the expeditional hydrological<br />
activities, since in Colombia, these vast fields <strong>of</strong> application<br />
are not o<strong>nl</strong>y found in the past, but also in the present and the<br />
future.
Verification <strong>of</strong> hydrological estimations by means <strong>of</strong><br />
temp o r a ry hy d rometric stations,<br />
The hydrometric activity <strong>of</strong> one or several temporary<br />
stations <strong>with</strong> complex and intensive observations and measurements<br />
programmes, verifies and completes the hydrological estimations,<br />
riot o<strong>nl</strong>y by means <strong>of</strong> direct data it provides during its operation,<br />
but also through the possibility <strong>of</strong> spreading its series <strong>of</strong> direct<br />
data, by means <strong>of</strong> correlatioris <strong>with</strong> data <strong>of</strong> other reference<br />
stations, which have been working for over 15 years, in zones<br />
<strong>of</strong> similar hydrological characteristics.<br />
In most cases, preference is to install one <strong>of</strong> the temporary<br />
hydrometric stations exactly in or near the sites <strong>of</strong> the projected<br />
works. The stretch <strong>of</strong> river corresponding to the work site does<br />
not always however meet satisfactory conditions to install a<br />
hydrometric station. In such cases, various hydrometric stations<br />
must be installed in the hydrographic basin where the site <strong>of</strong> the<br />
works is found, and later deduct the hydrological parameters<br />
by interpolation, balance <strong>of</strong> discharges or relation <strong>with</strong> physiographic<br />
or morphometric characteristics <strong>of</strong> the basin,<br />
In many cases, although a temporary hydrometric station can<br />
be installed in the very site <strong>of</strong> the projected works, it proves<br />
preferible to install several more stations in the corresponding<br />
hydrographic basin, in order to have possibilities <strong>of</strong><br />
controlling the activity developed in the station <strong>of</strong> the works<br />
site, complete the eventual gaps in observations and measurements,<br />
avoid errors and confirm the results,<br />
The working duration <strong>of</strong> the temporary hydrometric stations<br />
is variable, pursuant to the specific conditions. When the<br />
temporary station is right in the river as .the reference station,<br />
and the areas <strong>of</strong> its hydrographic basins differ by less than lo%,<br />
the correlation is generally established in one year alone.<br />
\then the two stations are in the same river, but the areas <strong>of</strong><br />
their basins differ by over lo%, the time needed to establish<br />
a reliable correlation takes various years, In short, when the<br />
temporary station is not in the same river as the reference one,<br />
the operation <strong>of</strong> the first one does not end when an acceptable<br />
mathematical correlation is obtained, but as soon as this is<br />
physically verified, during a period which contains sufficient<br />
humid and dry average years, in other words, rather representative<br />
for the average nultiannual situation, Otherwise the correlation<br />
obtained, although good from a mathematical point <strong>of</strong> view, may<br />
o<strong>nl</strong>y express a temporary situation, which would lead to great errors<br />
Besides the above cases, situations have occasionally been<br />
found where the reference station was too far from the site <strong>of</strong><br />
the projected works. Hence a direct correlation was practically<br />
impossible to establish. The problem could however be solved<br />
<strong>with</strong> various intermediary stations, which facilitated the transfer<br />
<strong>of</strong> data, by means <strong>of</strong> chain correlations.<br />
267
268<br />
The decision to suspend the running <strong>of</strong> a temporary hydro-<br />
metric station has always constituted a great difficulty.<br />
Generally, o<strong>nl</strong>y in a very few cases can the duration <strong>of</strong> operation<br />
<strong>of</strong> these stations be really considered sufficient. Therefore,<br />
even after the works execution has commenced, it is considered<br />
preferible to continue running temporary stations near these<br />
work sites, and these stations sometimes remain in operation<br />
even after the corresponding exploitation has started. The<br />
supplementary data supplied by these stations prove highly useful<br />
to complete and confirm the hydrological estimations, and also<br />
as guidance for eventual improvements in both the works and in<br />
the water uses programmes,<br />
Verification <strong>of</strong> indirect hydrological estimations by<br />
cxpeditional methods<br />
The verification <strong>of</strong> hydrological estimations by means <strong>of</strong><br />
temporary hydrometric stations <strong>with</strong> intensive and complex<br />
programmes <strong>of</strong> observations and measurements, constitutes a superior<br />
method, from a qualitative point <strong>of</strong> view, in relation <strong>with</strong> the<br />
verification <strong>of</strong> estimations by means <strong>of</strong> expeditional hydrological<br />
activities. It is not always however possible to install and<br />
operate stations in the sites <strong>of</strong> the projected works and water<br />
uses, or in their hydrographic basins. In scarcely populated<br />
regions, it is difficult to operate hydrometric stations, but<br />
the estimation <strong>of</strong> the main hydrological parameters <strong>of</strong> these<br />
areas is essential to plan the uses <strong>of</strong> hydric resources on a<br />
long term basis and also for prefeasibility studies. This<br />
situation is due to certain specific conditions, In Colombia,<br />
in more than half the national territory, the land communication<br />
lines are completely or partly missing, or are in a deficient<br />
state, such that in rainy periods, penetration is rarely possible.<br />
In these areas moreover, it is very difficult to find<br />
satisfactorily qualified people to act as hydrometric observers,<br />
and the installation <strong>of</strong> limnigraphs, in areas which have no<br />
watchkeepers, generally proves a hazard and failure.<br />
The lack <strong>of</strong> hydrometric networks, and the difficulty <strong>of</strong><br />
organizing stationary hydrological activities in almost half<br />
the national territory, constitute conditions which favour the<br />
wide use <strong>of</strong> expeditional hydrological activities. Although<br />
these cannot give well defined determinations <strong>of</strong> the hydrological<br />
system characteristics, as the Stationary systematic hydrometry<br />
cannot be substituted, they constitute essential work to verify<br />
hydrological estimations or to obtain approximate or guide<br />
indications in isolated regions <strong>of</strong> difficult access, where the<br />
installation and operation <strong>of</strong> hydrometric stations fail to<br />
encounter satisfactory conditions.<br />
The hydrological measurements in campaigns are frequently<br />
applied in Colombia to determine the following factors:
a) Maximum discharges, duration <strong>of</strong> floods and<br />
time <strong>of</strong> wave propagation;<br />
b) Minimum flows and duration <strong>of</strong> low waters;<br />
c) Sediment charges;<br />
d) <strong>Water</strong> temperatures;<br />
e) Physical, chemical and biological<br />
characteristics <strong>of</strong> the water;<br />
f) Overall hydrological characteristics <strong>of</strong><br />
the currents.<br />
üetermination <strong>of</strong> maximum discharges and flood characteristics<br />
by means <strong>of</strong> hyd rological expeditions<br />
269<br />
In most <strong>of</strong> the concrete situations (except the case <strong>of</strong><br />
flood sweeping), the aim is to determine the maximum run<strong>of</strong>f,<br />
pursuant to information on maximum historic levels and maximum<br />
floods known in the region, which supposes the almost total<br />
absence <strong>of</strong> evident traces <strong>of</strong> maximum waters in the beds <strong>of</strong> the<br />
currents.<br />
Thus, the information obtained on the field, acquires<br />
decisive importance. It can be classified into two categories:<br />
a) Information supplied by the river bank dwellers,<br />
b) Microphysiographic analysis in the largest beds<br />
<strong>of</strong> the rivers and on their banks.<br />
The information solicited from the river-bank dwellers<br />
refers to the following factors:<br />
a) The maximum level <strong>of</strong> the greatest flood known,<br />
b) The year and eventually the date when the flood<br />
came about,<br />
c) The time the flood waters took to reach their<br />
maximum level,<br />
d) The time the waters took in dropping to their<br />
normal levels,<br />
e) Eventual artificial influences on the maximum<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f system,<br />
Pursuant to the specific possibilities, the information<br />
on maximum waters is solicited from river-bank dwellers who<br />
have lived on the premises for over 30 years and the questions<br />
are put to various people, in order to have a chance to compare<br />
replies,<br />
The microphysiographic analysis in the largest beds <strong>of</strong><br />
the currents and on their banks, consider the possibility<br />
<strong>of</strong> finding certain traces about the maximum water levels,<br />
These analysis generally refer to the following factors:<br />
a) Geomorphological aspect,<br />
b) Alluvial material and grounds;<br />
c) Vegetation and organic vegetable material
270<br />
The geomorphological or morphohydrographic aspect <strong>of</strong> the bed<br />
constitutes the first sign on the possibility <strong>of</strong> the river waters<br />
overflowing. The indicative details are micromorphological<br />
aspects <strong>of</strong> very recent age, traces <strong>of</strong> erosion processes, alluvial<br />
formations scarcely fixed by the vegetation etc, Sometimes<br />
one can even determine lines <strong>of</strong> separation between the lowest parts<br />
<strong>of</strong> the banks, characterized by very recent morphogenetic<br />
processes, and the upper parts <strong>of</strong> same, relatively fixed and <strong>of</strong><br />
more advanced evolution. All the information resulting from<br />
the detailed analysis <strong>of</strong> the bed micromorphology, cannot lead<br />
to an exact determination <strong>of</strong> the maximum level <strong>of</strong> the waters, but<br />
it does <strong>of</strong>fer a first and very useful general guidance, on the<br />
extension <strong>of</strong> the maximum flood and its possible lines <strong>of</strong> demark-<br />
ation on the banks or in the largest bed.<br />
The micromorphological analysis is completed <strong>with</strong> observ-<br />
ations on the alluvial materials and the soil. The fine sediments,<br />
coming from the smaller bed, found on the banks, are a sure sign<br />
<strong>of</strong> flooding. The secondary soil, discontinuous on surface, and<br />
those which are scarcely at the beginning <strong>of</strong> the formation<br />
processes, also indicate the overflow <strong>of</strong> the waters, Finally,<br />
the mineralogical analysis <strong>of</strong> the fine sepry recent sediments<br />
<strong>of</strong> the largest bed, may indicate the presence <strong>of</strong> materials which<br />
are not <strong>of</strong> that place but come from upstream in the section under<br />
study, which indicates the flooding <strong>of</strong> the larger bed. The<br />
vegetation can also indicate the overflow <strong>of</strong> the waters, On the<br />
one hand, the discontinuity <strong>of</strong> the vegetable formations indicates<br />
the approximate limit <strong>of</strong> the flood. On the other hand, the<br />
detailled inventary <strong>of</strong> the vegetable species <strong>of</strong> the area can<br />
constitute a highly important piece <strong>of</strong> information, because all<br />
vegetable material which is different, in the larger bed, may<br />
have been brought by floods from upstream. The detailed<br />
laboratory analysis <strong>of</strong> the vegetable content <strong>of</strong> the sample<br />
sediments aiid soils may lead to decisive results, when pollen<br />
particles are found in them which do not belong to the vegetable<br />
species <strong>of</strong> the area under study, but to others from upstream zones.<br />
During the .land activities, the river-bank dwellers'<br />
information is always completed <strong>with</strong> microphysiographic analysis<br />
made in the largest beds <strong>of</strong> .the currents and on the banks <strong>of</strong> same.<br />
Without these analysis, the riversiders' information cannot be<br />
verified, and can consequently i d to very great mistakes, The<br />
errors arise from subjective reasons which make the riversiders<br />
hide the truth or merely <strong>of</strong>fer information on unknown events.<br />
The microphysiographic information, although unable to fix the<br />
maximum level <strong>of</strong> the waters, indicates essential approximations,<br />
as general guidance and verification factors.<br />
Besides finding information on the characteristics <strong>of</strong> the<br />
maximum run<strong>of</strong>f (iiiformation frorii river-side dwellers and micro-<br />
physiographic information), the following main operations are<br />
carried out in each section studied:
271<br />
Survey <strong>of</strong> three cross-sectional pr<strong>of</strong>iles, spaced at<br />
equal distances or more, <strong>of</strong> the river width, and<br />
continuing for no less than 1 m, above the maximum<br />
historic level <strong>of</strong> the waters. During the survey, the<br />
maximum levels are markeù on the pr<strong>of</strong>iles, and any<br />
lithological sign <strong>of</strong> soil or vegetable removed from<br />
the place;<br />
Survey <strong>of</strong> the longitudinal pr<strong>of</strong>ile <strong>of</strong> the current,<br />
<strong>with</strong> a length equal to or at least 5 times the width<br />
<strong>of</strong> the river.<br />
Execution <strong>of</strong> at least one gaging (if the natural<br />
conditions so permit)<br />
Approximate drawing <strong>of</strong> the river span, including the<br />
largest bed, the marking <strong>of</strong> the cross-sectional pr<strong>of</strong>iles;<br />
indications on the types and sizes <strong>of</strong> lithological<br />
materials and vegetation <strong>of</strong> the largest and smallest bed,<br />
the lines defining the maximum flood, certain reference<br />
elements, etc.);<br />
Sampling <strong>of</strong> sediments <strong>of</strong> the smaller bed and <strong>of</strong> alluvial<br />
material, and eventually soils from the larger bed and banks,<br />
along the cross-sectional pr<strong>of</strong>iles made;<br />
Inventary <strong>of</strong> the vegetable species <strong>of</strong> the area and eompiling<br />
<strong>of</strong> vegetable remains differing to the local species,<br />
The litliological samples <strong>of</strong> soil or vegetables are suitably<br />
packed, and all the necessary references are marked on the<br />
packages to establish the site from which they have been taken.<br />
Afterwards, pursuant to possibilities, the samples are analysed<br />
in the laboratory.<br />
The above activities are made in various representative<br />
sections <strong>of</strong> the hydrographic basin studied, in order to have<br />
sufficient data available to permit a comparison <strong>of</strong> values,<br />
an analysis <strong>of</strong> the territorial variation <strong>of</strong> same and generalization<br />
<strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f maximum. During the field work, the information from<br />
different sections are permanently compared, bearing in mind the<br />
territorial continuation <strong>of</strong> the processes, the variation <strong>of</strong><br />
the magnitudes, the periods and dates on which the events have<br />
come about, etc,<br />
Once the field and laboratory activities have beencompleted,<br />
the following factors are determineo during <strong>of</strong>fice work:<br />
a) Maximum discharges <strong>of</strong> homogeneous probability (generally 1%).<br />
b) Main flood characteristics;<br />
c) Eventually, time <strong>of</strong> wave propagation.<br />
The discharges corresponding to the maximum historic levels<br />
are calculated by hydraulic methods. The measurements made<br />
during the expeditions help to determine the hydraulic formula<br />
factors which contain the rugosity coefficient. These values<br />
are not used directly when estimating the maximum discharges,<br />
but merely <strong>of</strong>fer comparison criteria. Once the maximum historic
2 72<br />
discharges corresponding to a certain frequency have been<br />
calculated (for example 3% if they have been produced in<br />
30 yars), the values should be increased, in accordance <strong>with</strong><br />
the coefficients, which permit one to pass from larger<br />
frequencies to rare occurrences. Thus a homogeneization <strong>of</strong> data<br />
is made (the 1% probability is convenient), essential for<br />
comparisons and generalization. In order to change values<br />
<strong>of</strong> various probabilities into 1% probability values, it is<br />
preferible to use coefficients established <strong>with</strong> base on the<br />
direct hydrometric data available in the same zones or in<br />
regions which are hydrologically similar. If these completely<br />
fail, coefficients will then be used estimated <strong>with</strong> base on the<br />
theoretic frequency curves, considered adequate for the region<br />
under survey,<br />
A final verification <strong>of</strong> the 1% maximum probability discharges<br />
- is made through generalizations <strong>of</strong> various forms. The most<br />
comfipn are the type: Qmax = f (A); lg qmax = f(1gA); qmax =<br />
f ( ); etc, where Qmas = maximum discharge, in m3/s; A area<br />
<strong>of</strong> R e basin in km2; qmax = maximum yield, in l/s/km2, or mm;<br />
Hm = average elevation <strong>of</strong> the basin, in m; n = a subunit exponent,<br />
specific for the natural conditions <strong>of</strong> a given zone; f = a<br />
different function for each zone.<br />
The chief flood characteristics (swelling time and total<br />
duration <strong>of</strong> same) are also verified by comparison <strong>of</strong> data and<br />
generalizations. These latter are determined by reason <strong>of</strong><br />
various morphometric and physiographic factors <strong>of</strong> the hydro-<br />
graphic basins (length <strong>of</strong> currents, gradients <strong>of</strong> same, etc,)<br />
Likewise, the time <strong>of</strong> wave propagation is also verified and<br />
defined. The generalizations are generally determined in<br />
relation <strong>with</strong> the lengths and gradients <strong>of</strong> the currents,<br />
The final verification <strong>of</strong> the results is made by comparison<br />
<strong>with</strong> the direct hydrometric data available in the region. Thus,<br />
it is not acceptable that the 1% probability maximum discharges<br />
estimate? by expeditional methods, be less than the discharges<br />
measured in hydrometric stations, during short intervals,<br />
Determination <strong>of</strong> minimum discharges and duration <strong>of</strong> low waters<br />
by expeditional methods.<br />
In most <strong>of</strong> the concrete situations, the minimum low water<br />
characteristics are determined during the expeditions made to<br />
find the maximum run<strong>of</strong>f, subject to the condition that these be<br />
made during low waters.<br />
The activities developed on the field have three categories:<br />
a) Compiling <strong>of</strong> information froin the riversiders.<br />
b) Hydrological and topographic work in the bed <strong>of</strong> the current.<br />
c) Observations on the lithology and freatic layers <strong>of</strong> the region,<br />
The reports from the riversiders refer to the following aspects
273<br />
a) Eventual interruption <strong>of</strong> the run<strong>of</strong>f,<br />
b) Minimum historic levels;<br />
c) Year and month when the run<strong>of</strong>f was interrupted or when<br />
the minimum level came about,<br />
d) Low waters and duration <strong>of</strong> same,<br />
e) Eventual artificial influences on the minimum run<strong>of</strong>f system.<br />
Preferibly the information is requested from various people<br />
who have lived near the river, for ovcr 30 years. The most<br />
marked sections €or analysis are those which pertain to spans<br />
<strong>of</strong> current where ancient floodgate openings are found, and also<br />
the sections near to irrigation land. The existence <strong>of</strong><br />
derivations, upstream from the section under survey, must be<br />
considered, to avoid considering the minimum discharges in<br />
influenced state as minimums in natural state.<br />
Tile hydrological aiid topographic work in the bed refer to<br />
the following:<br />
a) Execution <strong>of</strong> measurements;<br />
b) Topographic survey <strong>of</strong> loiigi tudinal pr<strong>of</strong> iles,<br />
The measurements are generally made by wading. After making<br />
the measurements, the wet section is drawn and on this, the line<br />
<strong>of</strong> the surface <strong>of</strong> the water corrcsponding to the lowest water<br />
(in accordance <strong>with</strong> the information on minimum historic levels).<br />
The topographic survey <strong>of</strong> longitudinal pr<strong>of</strong>iles is made on<br />
the water surface, and spreads for at least three times the<br />
width <strong>of</strong> the lower bed. These operations are made in various<br />
sectioiis representing the basin or area under survey, which<br />
are generally assimilated in the main confluences, The information<br />
is permanently compared, bearing in mind the territorial<br />
continuity <strong>of</strong> the hydrological phenomena.<br />
Throughout the hydrological expeditions , the lithology <strong>of</strong><br />
the region is continually observed. If geological maps are<br />
available, they are taken to the field, to have prior indications<br />
on the areas where there are permeable rocks Any discontinuity<br />
in the run<strong>of</strong>f during low waters should be explained either as<br />
a result <strong>of</strong> human activities or due to lithological influences,<br />
Research on the depth <strong>of</strong> the freatic layers, in existing wells,<br />
is also made, and also on possible contacts <strong>of</strong> these layers <strong>with</strong><br />
the flows, which could constitute an important additional inform-<br />
ation for estimating the minimum run<strong>of</strong>f characteristics.<br />
The estimations, interpretation, verification and generalization<br />
<strong>of</strong> data are made at a later stage, at the <strong>of</strong>fice. The minimum<br />
discharges are estimated by means <strong>of</strong> hydraulic methods, For the<br />
factor containing the rugosity coefficient, the values are used<br />
which result from the measurements made, The discharges <strong>of</strong><br />
diverse statistical probabilities are transformed into 97%<br />
probability discharges (three times in 100 years) to obtain liomogeneous<br />
values which can be compared. The coefficients used to
274<br />
change values <strong>of</strong> greater frequency into values <strong>of</strong> lesser<br />
probability shauld be determined based on direct hydrometric<br />
data <strong>of</strong> the zone or regions <strong>with</strong> similar hydrological system,<br />
If these fail, determinate coefficients may be used based on<br />
the theoretic frequency curves, considered adequate for the<br />
region studied.<br />
In the event <strong>of</strong> intermittent run<strong>of</strong>f flows once in 30 years,<br />
all the minimum discharges <strong>with</strong> probabilities above 959. may<br />
be considered the same or zero.<br />
The 97% probability minimum discharges are firstly analysed<br />
in relation <strong>with</strong> the areas <strong>of</strong> basins and by means <strong>of</strong> balances <strong>of</strong><br />
discharges. The yields are analyzed by means <strong>of</strong> generalization<br />
relations, which may be <strong>of</strong> type qmin = f (iim) for mountainous<br />
areas and qmin = f (B%) or qmin = f (Ud) for flat areas, In<br />
these relations qmin = minimurn yield, in l/s/km2, or mm; Iim =<br />
average elevation <strong>of</strong> the basin, in m; B% = forestal covering<br />
coefficient <strong>of</strong> the basin, in %; Ud = drainage density or density<br />
<strong>of</strong> the hydrographic network in km/km2; and f = a different function<br />
in each zone.<br />
If maps are available <strong>with</strong> monthly mean isohyets, the minimum<br />
yields may be compared <strong>with</strong> the monthly mean precipitations <strong>of</strong><br />
the driest month, by means <strong>of</strong> relations <strong>of</strong> type qmin = f(Pm),<br />
where Pm = mean precipitation <strong>of</strong> the driest month, in the basin<br />
correspoiiding to each section, in mm.<br />
The duration <strong>of</strong> the low waters is analysed from the point <strong>of</strong><br />
view <strong>of</strong> territorial continuation <strong>of</strong> the hydrological phenomena<br />
aiid moreover, in relation <strong>with</strong> the distribution <strong>of</strong> the precipit-<br />
ations <strong>with</strong>in the year, When special meteorological maps are<br />
available, indicating the average duration <strong>of</strong> the drought periods,<br />
this data can be used to verify the maximum low water durations,<br />
by means <strong>of</strong> relations <strong>of</strong> type Te = f(Ts), where Te = time or<br />
duration <strong>of</strong> the drougnt period, in days; and f = a different<br />
function in each zone.<br />
Determination <strong>of</strong> sediment charges by expeditional methods<br />
The hydrological campaigns to determine sediment charges<br />
are made during high waters periods and after floods <strong>of</strong> certain<br />
importance have occurred, The expeditions organized during high<br />
waters periods try to determine sediment charges in suspension,<br />
whereas the others refer to haulage volumes.<br />
The main activities to determine sediment charges in suspension<br />
are as follows:
a) Sampling <strong>of</strong> waters <strong>with</strong> suspensions;<br />
b) Execution <strong>of</strong> measurements;<br />
c) Geomorphological observation <strong>of</strong> the land.<br />
275<br />
The water samples are taken during tlie execution <strong>of</strong><br />
measurements, in tlie same points where tlie speeds <strong>of</strong> the<br />
water are measured. The measurements and water sampling<br />
are made in various characteristic sections <strong>of</strong> the hydrographic<br />
basin or study zone, where bridges or other facilities<br />
are available to execute the gagirigs.<br />
iluring these runs, permanent geomorphological observations<br />
are made on the existence <strong>of</strong> erosion processes, land degradation,<br />
lithological conditions ardvegetation, and also their relation<br />
<strong>with</strong> washing <strong>of</strong> the soils, etc. All these factors help to<br />
explain the abrupt changes in the territorial variation <strong>of</strong> the<br />
sediment concentration. To make our work easier and as general<br />
guidance, it is convenient to take to the field the lithological<br />
or geological, general geomorphological and special geomorphological<br />
maps (gradient, fragmentation <strong>of</strong> the relief, erosion, etc) if<br />
they exist.<br />
Once they have been estimated, the sediment charges in<br />
suspension are analysed, bearing in mind the territorial<br />
continuity <strong>of</strong> the hydrological processes, Any discontinuity<br />
ihould be explained by tlie different contribution <strong>of</strong> any <strong>of</strong><br />
the affluents, or by evident morpholithological changes in the<br />
basin, which determine changes in the erosion and the transport<br />
<strong>of</strong> sediments. The concentration <strong>of</strong> sediments in suspension may<br />
moreover be analysed in function <strong>of</strong> the territorial variation <strong>of</strong><br />
tlie corresponding run<strong>of</strong>f, <strong>with</strong>in the hydrographic basin or area<br />
studied.<br />
In order to establish the magnitude <strong>of</strong> the averages <strong>of</strong> sedi-<br />
ment concentration in suspension, various hydrological campaigns<br />
are made, until relations between discharges and sediment<br />
charges, in various characteristic sections can be determined.<br />
Thus, the verification and generalization <strong>of</strong> concentrations or<br />
sediment charges in suspension is made through the flow and run-<br />
<strong>of</strong>f magnitudes,<br />
Finally, the verification <strong>of</strong> the magnitude <strong>of</strong> the average<br />
values <strong>of</strong> eoncentretion <strong>of</strong> suspensions is made, by morpholitho-<br />
logical zones, in function <strong>of</strong> the variation <strong>of</strong> the gradients,<br />
coefficients <strong>of</strong> covering <strong>with</strong> forestal vegetation, etc.<br />
To find voluniEs <strong>of</strong> dragged sediments, certain activities are<br />
carried out, during low water periods, and the following are the<br />
most important among these:<br />
a) Set up marks and fixed reference points.<br />
b) Topographic surveys <strong>of</strong> alluvial accumulations in flow beds;<br />
c) Set up and recover traps for sediments and measure accumula<br />
t i on s .
276<br />
These operations are performed in various characteristic<br />
sections , generally downstream <strong>of</strong> important confluences regard-<br />
ing the drags contribution. To obtain a general idea on tlie<br />
size <strong>of</strong> the sediment charges dragged along, various campaigns<br />
are made. In the first, the marks and fixed reference points<br />
are set up on the banks, in the larger lied, and sometimes even<br />
iii tile smaller bed <strong>of</strong> the currents, and also the sediment traps<br />
in the smaller and larger river beds. In later campaigns,<br />
topographic surveys are made <strong>of</strong> the alluvial accumulations;<br />
the sediments accumulated in the traps are removed; the marks<br />
are repaired and also the reference points that have been<br />
damaged during floods, and the traps are again set up for bottom<br />
sediments.<br />
lhe dragged sediment charges are analysed in relation <strong>with</strong><br />
the magnitude <strong>of</strong> the discharges and suspension charges, and also<br />
in function <strong>of</strong> the morpliolitliolpgical local conditions (litho-<br />
logical complexes, erosion and gradient processes, etc.)<br />
Finally, coeffients may be established which, for each zone<br />
<strong>of</strong> specific morpnolithological conditions, indicate the magnitude<br />
<strong>of</strong> tlie proportion that the sediment charges dragged along<br />
represent , in relation <strong>with</strong> the suspension charges.<br />
Determination <strong>of</strong> water temperatures by expeditional methods<br />
The hydrological expeditions which determine the water<br />
temperatures, refer to the following operations:<br />
a) Measurement <strong>of</strong> air temperatures.<br />
b) Measurement <strong>of</strong> water temperatures,<br />
c) Observations on the land lithology.<br />
The air temperatures are measured in order to have values<br />
available to determine correlations between these and the water<br />
temperatures. Once the correlations have been established,<br />
characteristic values and the variation in space and time <strong>of</strong><br />
the water temperatures can be determined, based on the values<br />
<strong>of</strong> the former, Naturally, in such cases, maps <strong>with</strong> isotherms<br />
<strong>of</strong> the air in tlie surveyance regions are available,<br />
‘She water temperatures are measured in various characteristic<br />
sections, parallel <strong>with</strong> those <strong>of</strong> the air temperatures. The<br />
variation in their values is analysed bearing in mind the territorial<br />
continuation <strong>of</strong> the hydrological processes, Aiiy jump in<br />
the water temperatures, throughout a flow, should be explained<br />
either by confluences <strong>with</strong> different temperature flows, or by<br />
imp0 r t ant prouiid water contributions,<br />
Observations oii the lithology <strong>of</strong> the region are made to<br />
detect possible substantial ground water contributions, and related<br />
to this, explain the sharp changes in temperature experienced by<br />
the waters throughout the flows,
277<br />
in order to compile representative data not o<strong>nl</strong>y from<br />
the territorial variation point <strong>of</strong> view, but also regarding<br />
tiic temporary variation, expeditions are made tliroughout all<br />
the seasons <strong>of</strong> the year.<br />
Determination <strong>of</strong> physical, chemical and biological character-<br />
istics <strong>of</strong> the water by means <strong>of</strong> expeditional methods<br />
The campaigns to determine the quality <strong>of</strong> the waters are<br />
organized during low water periods, when the physical , chemical<br />
and biological characteristics <strong>of</strong> the flow waters are most<br />
stable.<br />
Iii cases <strong>of</strong> waters whose quality is unchanged by human<br />
activities, the characteristic sections for expeditional work<br />
are the confluences. To the contrary , the conf luences <strong>with</strong><br />
drainage and sewerage are also taken into account,<br />
The main activities carried out during the campaigns arc<br />
as follows:<br />
a) Compiling <strong>of</strong> water samples;<br />
b) Execution <strong>of</strong> measurements;<br />
c) Analysis <strong>of</strong> water samples , and eventually, preservation<br />
and packing <strong>of</strong> same;<br />
d) Geological observations.<br />
The water samples are analysed on the field, if mobile<br />
laboratories are available (the most suitable]. When there<br />
are no possibilities <strong>of</strong> making complete analysis on the field,<br />
the samples are preserved, and at least the analysis <strong>of</strong> the easily<br />
changeable characteristics are made, anù which can be o<strong>nl</strong>y<br />
determined in fresh tests. ‘Iiie samples sent to the laboratory<br />
are suitably packed, and all tiic indications regarding the site,<br />
and date <strong>of</strong> collection are noted on the packets.<br />
The measurements are made to find the discharges to which<br />
the characteristics measured correspond, anù also the amounts<br />
<strong>of</strong> waters available for dilution <strong>of</strong> chemical coiicentrations,<br />
<strong>of</strong> vital use, especially in cases <strong>of</strong> pollution tipping.<br />
The geological observations are similar to those made during<br />
expeditions to find the miiiimum run<strong>of</strong>f characteristics. In the<br />
case <strong>of</strong> physical, chemical and biological qualities <strong>of</strong> the flow<br />
waters, any sharp change should be explained either by artificial<br />
influence (tipping <strong>of</strong> pollutions), or by natural influence, due<br />
to confluences <strong>with</strong> flows <strong>of</strong> different biological, chemical and<br />
physical characteristics, or due to an abundant food <strong>of</strong> ground<br />
waters from different lithological zones,<br />
As soon as thc physical, cliemral and biological character-<br />
istics <strong>of</strong> the water have been determined, they are analysed,<br />
bearing in mind the territorial continuity <strong>of</strong> the hydrological
278<br />
processes, and they are verified, according to litliokgical<br />
zones, in relation <strong>with</strong> the discharge and run<strong>of</strong>f magnitudes.<br />
Determination <strong>of</strong> whole hydrological characteristics <strong>of</strong> the<br />
Flows by means <strong>of</strong> observations and measuremeiits on campaigns<br />
In practice, the caso very frequently turns up <strong>of</strong> there<br />
being no direct hydrometric data available in certain Iiydro-<br />
graphic basins, or estimations <strong>of</strong> various hydrological<br />
characteristics must be verified.<br />
In such situations, complex expeditional hydrological<br />
activities are developed, based essentially on tiie following<br />
p r i nc ipk s :<br />
a) iixccution <strong>of</strong> simultaneous measurements hydrologically,<br />
in various sections;<br />
b) Periodicity <strong>of</strong> campaigns, in accordance wi tli the hydro-<br />
logical method phases;<br />
c) Installation <strong>of</strong> recorder apparatus, <strong>with</strong> long duration,<br />
autonomous operation;<br />
Ci) General Observations o11 the genetic characteristics <strong>of</strong><br />
the hydrological sys tem.<br />
The measurements may refer to most <strong>of</strong> the hydrological<br />
characteristics (levels, discharges, sediment charges, temperature<br />
and physical, chemical arid biological characteristics <strong>of</strong> the<br />
waters, etc,) and they are made in various representative<br />
sections <strong>of</strong> the basins under survey, and also in nearby<br />
hydrometric stations, located iii areas <strong>with</strong> similar hydric<br />
system.<br />
The principle <strong>of</strong> Iiydrological simultaneity should be strictly<br />
respected during the measurements, in order to compare and<br />
correlate the results. From an operational point <strong>of</strong> view, this<br />
supposes a need to execute work by means <strong>of</strong> various teams <strong>of</strong><br />
hydrologists working parallel, in accordance wi tli strictly<br />
established programs regarding the sections and measurement hours,<br />
The periodicity <strong>of</strong> the campaigns, iri functinn <strong>of</strong> the hydro-<br />
logical system, is irnposcd as a compulsory condition, in order<br />
to establish the variation ranges <strong>of</strong> the characteristics measured<br />
and the correct correlations between the data <strong>of</strong> nrious sections<br />
arid those <strong>of</strong> the nearby liydrometric stations.<br />
"lie installation <strong>of</strong> recording apparatus, <strong>of</strong> long duration<br />
autonomous operation, is convenient when the periodicity and<br />
frequency <strong>of</strong> the campaigns cannot be assured on a satisfactory<br />
level, and also when oiie is trying to complete the correlations<br />
between the data <strong>of</strong> the sections studied and the reference<br />
hydrometric stations. tiowever, in most specific cases, the land<br />
difficulties prevent execution <strong>of</strong> works for installation <strong>of</strong><br />
recorder apparatus (lack <strong>of</strong> roads and labour; the maintenance and
279<br />
periodic inspection <strong>of</strong> the installations and apparatus cannot<br />
be assured, etc.)<br />
The measurement <strong>of</strong> tlie hydrological characteristics is<br />
organized in accordance <strong>with</strong> the indications given in the '<br />
above paragraphs.<br />
The data analysis is made bearing in mind the territorial<br />
continuity <strong>of</strong> the hydrological processes and the correlations<br />
between various sections and the reference hydrometric stations,<br />
arid also in terms <strong>of</strong> the local physiographic conditions<br />
influencing the variation <strong>of</strong> the hydrological system factors,<br />
Naturally, the most important thing is to properly determine<br />
tile correlations so as to extend the series <strong>of</strong> data <strong>of</strong> the<br />
sections studied, in terms <strong>of</strong> the long series <strong>of</strong> data available<br />
in the reference hydrometric stations. It is therefore<br />
convenient for the expeditioiiai hydrological activities to be<br />
developed in each zone, at least during two complete years.<br />
The verification, analysis and interpretation <strong>of</strong> the data<br />
is made before suspending the field activities. Pursuant to<br />
tlie results, the initial programmes can be changed and the<br />
work intensified, to define the processes which have not yet<br />
been satisfactorily determined. The total suspension <strong>of</strong> the<br />
expeditionai hydrological activities in the study area can o<strong>nl</strong>y<br />
be macle after conclusive results have been obtained, or,<br />
exceptionally, when the sure conclusion is reached that the<br />
methods used are sufficient to deterriiine or verify the hydro-<br />
logical characteristics which must be known.<br />
bibliography<br />
1.<br />
2.<br />
3.<br />
4.<br />
5.<br />
6.<br />
7.<br />
Uiaconu, C., Lazarescu D, (1965). Iiidrologie, Bucuresti.<br />
Irjorld Meteorological Organization (1970). Hydrometeorological<br />
Practices Guide, OMM-No. 168 TP. 82, Geneva.<br />
Roche, M. (1963). llydrologie de suÏface, Paris,<br />
Stanescu, S. (1969). Chief prcsent day problems <strong>of</strong> the<br />
national network organization <strong>of</strong> hydrological stations<br />
in Colombia, Aperiodic Publication 1 , SCMII, Bogota,<br />
Stanescu, S. (1971). Expeditional Iiydrological Activities.<br />
Aperiodic Publication 22, SCMiI, Bogota.<br />
Vircol, Al. (1960). Calculul debitelor maxime folosind<br />
cercetarile expeditionare, Studii de liidrologie 1, Bucuresti.<br />
World Meteorological Organization (1972). Casebook on<br />
Hydrological Network <strong>Design</strong> Practice, WMO- No. 324 , Geneva.
280<br />
1100<br />
260<br />
E STAC I ON ME TE ORO LOG IC A I NGE N I O MAN U EL I TA<br />
PROMEDIO 1901 -1970<br />
ESTACION HIDROMETRICA CAUCA - JUANCHITO<br />
PROMEDIO 1934-1970<br />
24 O<br />
1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1%5 1970<br />
COMPARACION DE PROMEDIOS MULTIANUALES SUCESIVOS (GLISANTES) DE PRECIPITA -<br />
CION CON EL PROMEDIO DEL PERIODO 1901-1970 EN LA ESTACION METEOROLOGICA<br />
INGENIO MANUELITA (A) Y DE CAUDAL CON EL PROMEDIO DEL PERIODO 1934.1970<br />
EN LA ESTACION HIDROMETRICA CAUCA- JUANCHITO (8)<br />
FIGURA I<br />
I GRAFICO PARA CURVA DE FRECUENCIA I<br />
COMPARACION DE CURVAS DE FRECUENCIA DE CAUDALES MEDIOS ANUALES<br />
DEL PERIODO 1934-1970 Y i951 -1970 EN LA ESTACION HIDROMETRICA<br />
CAUCA - JUANCHITO<br />
FIGURA 2<br />
A<br />
Ah0<br />
A
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I<br />
L<br />
3<br />
3 -<br />
L<br />
Y<br />
3<br />
L<br />
o<br />
a<br />
281
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0 -<br />
O O<br />
9- i%' x x o N<br />
!li' E l<br />
O 0 I<br />
L J<br />
I I<br />
I I<br />
I<br />
I<br />
I *<br />
I<br />
I<br />
*I<br />
I<br />
I<br />
I<br />
I<br />
L. .J<br />
I<br />
I<br />
I I<br />
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ABSTRACT<br />
NEW MODELS OF FREQUENCY LAW OF RUNOFF<br />
STARTING FROM PRECIPITATIONS<br />
J.R. TEMEZ<br />
Pr<strong>of</strong>essor<br />
1.T.O.P.College-Madrid<br />
Two interesting applications <strong>of</strong> a new hydrometeorological<br />
method are developed <strong>with</strong> scientific rigour.<br />
From the frequency law <strong>of</strong> annual precipitations, we can<br />
deduce symply the law <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f, and <strong>with</strong> precission, proved<br />
in all tne esperimental verifications. To do it, we must know<br />
or estimate the potential evapotranspiration on the basin (ETP)<br />
and the minimum effective precipitacion (Po).<br />
An analogous reasoning, yet simplier, allow us to convert<br />
the frequency law <strong>of</strong> maximum precipitations in the law <strong>of</strong><br />
volumes <strong>of</strong> superficial run<strong>of</strong>f in floods. The o<strong>nl</strong>y necessary<br />
datum is the minimum effective rainfall PL, analogous to the<br />
Po *<br />
We can simplify the calculations <strong>with</strong> special paper <strong>of</strong><br />
double scale. In them, the statistic function <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>fs is<br />
the same as precipitations if we read each one in the correspondent<br />
scale.<br />
The pr<strong>of</strong>it <strong>of</strong> this methodology, evident in bassins <strong>with</strong>out<br />
data <strong>of</strong> discharge is also important when we know the registers<br />
<strong>of</strong> flow because it makes easy models <strong>of</strong> adjustment more reasonable<br />
than the classic one <strong>of</strong> Galton, Goodrich and so on, and<br />
in this way we avoid nonsensical extrapolations in the intervals<br />
<strong>of</strong> large and small values.<br />
--<br />
RE S U ME N<br />
Dos interesantes aplicaciones de un nuevo método hidrometeo<br />
rológico se desarrollan con rigor científico.<br />
A partir de la ley de fre'cuencia de las precipitaciones --<br />
anuales, se deduce la de aportaciones de manera sencilla, y con<br />
precisión, demostrada en todas las comprobaciones experimentales.<br />
Para elio solamente se necesita conocer o estimar la evapotranspiración<br />
potencial en la cuenca (ETP) y la lluvia mínima eficaz<br />
(Po).<br />
Un razonamiento análogo, aún más simple, permite convertir<br />
la ley de frecuencia de máximas precipitaciones en la de volumenes<br />
de escorrentía superficial en avenidas. El Gnico dato necesa<br />
rio es la lluvia mínima eficaz PL, análoga a ia Po.<br />
Los cálculos se simplifican con papeles especiales de doble<br />
escala. En ellos, la función estadística de aportaciones es la -<br />
misma de precipitaciones con tal de leer cada una en la escala -<br />
correspondiente.<br />
La utilidad de esta metodologia, evidente en cuencas sin da<br />
tos de aforo, es también importante cuando existen registros fo-<br />
ronómicos, pues facilita modelos de ajuste más racionales que --<br />
los clásicos de Galton, Goodrich, etc., y se evitan así absurdas<br />
extrapolaciones en los intervalos de grandes y pequenos valores.
2 88<br />
1. MOTIVATION<br />
The precipitations, phenomenon <strong>of</strong> general type, are adjusted<br />
correctly to the also general classical frequency laws: Gumbel (maximum<br />
rainfalls), Gauss (annual precipitations*), and so on, altering the mean value<br />
and the dispersion from some places to others.<br />
These precipitations are transformed partially in run<strong>of</strong>fs, but is<br />
fundamentaly a deterministic process, peculiar <strong>of</strong> each basin in relation to<br />
their edafogeological and climatical characteristics. Therefore the regime <strong>of</strong><br />
run<strong>of</strong>fs can not be defined <strong>with</strong> the statistic functions, at present in use, which<br />
ignore the concrete parameters <strong>of</strong> each basin, significatives <strong>of</strong> the hydrological<br />
cycle. These functions, by virtue <strong>of</strong> the liberty that their indetermined coef-<br />
ficients give them, are able to adjust to the experimental points o<strong>nl</strong>y in the -<br />
interval <strong>of</strong> the intermediate values, but they point their inadequate conception<br />
out to represent the hydrological phenomenon in the band <strong>of</strong> small and large<br />
values where the disadjustments are significative and many times nonsensical,<br />
such as what happens when the run<strong>of</strong>f <strong>of</strong> low frequency are negatives and the<br />
high ones exceed notably the cipher <strong>of</strong> the precipitations. Their inadequateness<br />
is manifested more clearly in basins <strong>of</strong> irregular regime than in the regular<br />
ones, since these last are easy to adjust any curve to the reduced range <strong>of</strong><br />
variation <strong>of</strong> the registers not indicating the erroneous extrapolations which are<br />
done about the extreme values.<br />
On the other hand, in the basins <strong>with</strong>out registers <strong>of</strong> flow, we<br />
must define correctly from the precipitations, not o<strong>nl</strong>y the mean flow, but also<br />
the other parameters which are characteristical <strong>of</strong> their hydrological regime<br />
like functions <strong>of</strong> frequency <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>fs floods and so on.<br />
These considerations have moved the author to develop a new hydro<br />
meteorological method <strong>of</strong> precision and scientifica1 base, though <strong>of</strong><br />
simple application.<br />
The article shows two interesting applications <strong>of</strong> this metodology,<br />
which will be the object <strong>of</strong> an exhaustive treatment in a later publication.<br />
* The author will propose in a later publication a modified Gauss law.
2. TYPE OF FREQUENCY LAW OF THE ANNUAL<br />
RUNOFFS PROPOSED BY THE AUTHOR<br />
289<br />
When we treat <strong>of</strong> regulating high percentages <strong>of</strong> the mean flow <strong>of</strong><br />
a river, the decisive fact is the frequency law <strong>of</strong> their annual run<strong>of</strong>fs, lossing<br />
importance in the study, the precise knowledge <strong>of</strong> the monthly variations, more<br />
sensible to the geological characteristics <strong>of</strong> the basin, on the other hand deci-<br />
sives when the volumes <strong>of</strong> water to regulate are low.<br />
Therefore it has a big interest to determine the said law starting<br />
from the precipitations <strong>of</strong> the basins <strong>with</strong>out registers <strong>of</strong> flow, or by the<br />
convenient adjustment to the experimental points if there are registers <strong>of</strong><br />
flows. The method that is exposed later on, solves the probleme in both cases.<br />
The balance <strong>of</strong> water in a period like the water year,<br />
permits to establish the relation<br />
A = P - E where A = annual total run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
P = annual precipitation<br />
E = annual and actual evaporation<br />
This equation applicable to the individual values <strong>of</strong> one or several<br />
years, suggest us also about the relative configuration <strong>of</strong> the frequency <strong>of</strong> run-<br />
<strong>of</strong>fs and rainialls laws.<br />
For very big values <strong>of</strong> P, the actual evaporation will be identified<br />
<strong>with</strong> the potential one, practically constant from some years to others (in the<br />
humid years is smaller than in the dry ones). On the other hand, in the extre-<br />
mely dry years all the precipitation will evaporate from its own basin E = P, and<br />
A = O. In intermediate conditions E and A will increase <strong>with</strong> p.<br />
The qualitative sight <strong>of</strong> the precipitations and run<strong>of</strong>fs laws is<br />
represented by the figure 1. We can calculate the frequencies <strong>of</strong> A from the<br />
frequencies <strong>of</strong> P if we know the values <strong>of</strong> 6 (P) that in this way it has the<br />
significance <strong>of</strong> a middling evaporation to that precipitation.<br />
That relation 6 = 6 (P) according to the considerations done previoly,<br />
will be represented in the figure 2 and different from some basins to others<br />
in relation to the capacity <strong>of</strong> retention <strong>of</strong> water on their soil R and the regime<br />
<strong>of</strong> temporal distribution <strong>of</strong> their climatical variables.<br />
The method proposed consists in establishing the family <strong>of</strong> curves<br />
i=$<br />
(- P<br />
ETP ETP)
290<br />
among which we must select the most suitable in each concrete case.<br />
We can make that selection in relation to - R , but the curve,<br />
according to what was said before, is also conditioned E by the temporal<br />
distribution <strong>of</strong> the precipitation and the evapotranspiration, which is variable from<br />
a meteorological zones to another. Therefore we think more practical to<br />
represent the influence as a whole <strong>with</strong> all these variables by their inmediate<br />
effect Po (figure 2), minimum effective precipitation from which frequency<br />
corresponds a null run<strong>of</strong>f.<br />
Having present the definition <strong>of</strong> 6 , the figure 2 is transformed in<br />
the figure 3.<br />
The calculations <strong>of</strong> the frequency laws <strong>of</strong> precipitation and run<strong>of</strong>fs<br />
in many basins <strong>with</strong> registers <strong>of</strong> flows were made, and in all <strong>of</strong> them we found<br />
out that the values, correspondent to a same frequency, are combined realy<br />
by a relation <strong>of</strong> the type schematized in the figure 3 arid has the following<br />
expression:<br />
A = O para P < PO y para P > PO<br />
that permits to transforme the frequency law <strong>of</strong> precipitations in the frequency<br />
law <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>fs.<br />
The figure 4 contrasts the results obtained by this process and<br />
the usual ones at the basin <strong>of</strong> the Guadalmellato river. In front to the good<br />
adjustment <strong>of</strong> the author’s law, Galton gives nonsensical high values, higher<br />
including to the precipitations, in the interval <strong>of</strong> high frequencies, while Good<br />
rich in the interval <strong>of</strong> small values, decisive in the studies <strong>of</strong> regulations <strong>of</strong> a<br />
river, recomends negatives ciphers including for frequencies higher to O, 10.<br />
The functions <strong>of</strong> Goodrich, and specially Galton, ignoring the physical sense<br />
<strong>of</strong> the hydrological phenomenon, are not capable <strong>of</strong> simultaneously adapting<br />
to the total range <strong>of</strong> values.<br />
The adjustment <strong>of</strong> the author is repeated in the figure 5 <strong>with</strong><br />
double scale <strong>of</strong> ordinates: the normal and their transformation according to<br />
formula (2). In this way the law <strong>of</strong> frequency <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>fs must be the same as<br />
that precipitations provided that to read each one in the correspondent scale;<br />
effectivelly we can verify that the experimental points as much as the preci-<br />
pitations as the run<strong>of</strong>fs are confounded and are distributed in the grapht round<br />
about to an o<strong>nl</strong>y curve.
291<br />
Guadalmellato is an example <strong>of</strong> the many empirical cornprobations<br />
carried out, which demostrate the big precision <strong>of</strong> the method proposed here.<br />
1)<br />
2)<br />
3)<br />
4)<br />
The procedure <strong>of</strong> calculation consists in the following steps:<br />
Calculation <strong>of</strong> the frequency law <strong>of</strong> precipitations,<br />
Determination <strong>of</strong> the potential evapotranspiration value <strong>of</strong> the<br />
basin (ETP) deductible from the evaporimetrical measures (or<br />
charts) existing in the zone.<br />
Valoration <strong>of</strong> the minimum ei'fective precipitation Po. The data <strong>of</strong><br />
flows, if they exist, must orientate the computations to choose<br />
theparameter Po more convenient. On the contrary the valoration<br />
<strong>of</strong> Po must be guided by the values obtained in other basins gauged<br />
<strong>of</strong> that zone and based in the capacity <strong>of</strong> retention <strong>of</strong> water in their<br />
soil. Po is equal to the capacity <strong>of</strong> retention <strong>of</strong> the soil plus a<br />
function <strong>of</strong> the climate which sign can be positive or negative<br />
depending on the cases. The author prepares an orientative table<br />
<strong>of</strong> values <strong>of</strong> Po, though a hydrologist can estimate sufficiently<br />
exact that cipher <strong>with</strong> so dear physical sense, based o<strong>nl</strong>y in their<br />
experience and in a superficial knowledge <strong>of</strong> the characteristics<br />
<strong>of</strong> the basin.<br />
In humid climates where the precipitations <strong>of</strong> low frequency are<br />
much higher than PO, is enough a gross approximation <strong>of</strong> this<br />
last parameter.<br />
Once that data are known, the run<strong>of</strong>f A <strong>with</strong> frecuency F is obtain-<br />
ed in relation to the precipitation P <strong>of</strong> that same frequency by the<br />
formula (1) or their equivalent (2).<br />
It must not be forgotten that the knowledge <strong>of</strong> the frequency law<br />
determines automatically the value <strong>of</strong> the mean run<strong>of</strong>f. Inversely we can<br />
choose the parameter Po <strong>with</strong> the condition to proporcionate a mean run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
equal to the previous valuation by other procedure.<br />
In any case, if there are registers <strong>of</strong> flow the values <strong>of</strong> ETP and<br />
Po will be needed to get the best adjustment <strong>with</strong> the experimental points.<br />
To programme the method to the use <strong>of</strong> computers will yet be<br />
easier the calculation.
292<br />
3. CORRECTIVE RUNOFF<br />
Let us imagine that after a serie <strong>of</strong> years <strong>of</strong> intermediate<br />
characteristics, a year so dry is produced that all their precipitation is<br />
evaporated and not producing any run<strong>of</strong>f. In spite <strong>of</strong> that circunstance, the<br />
flows <strong>of</strong> the river will be not necessarily null, since they can feed from the<br />
underground reserve (or superficial) <strong>of</strong> the basin decreasing in agreeable to<br />
the curve <strong>of</strong> exhaustion <strong>of</strong> the base flow.<br />
The corrective run<strong>of</strong>f, or variation <strong>of</strong> the reserve from the end<br />
<strong>of</strong> a water year to the end <strong>of</strong> the following one, will be an analogous function<br />
to the represented one in the figures 6 and 7: <strong>with</strong> high values <strong>of</strong> theprecipi-<br />
tation, the reserve will increase and discharge <strong>of</strong> the river, diminish in this<br />
quantity; on the contrary <strong>with</strong> low values it will decrease, to feed the super-<br />
ficial flows; in mean raining years the reserve will not change.<br />
For smaller frequency than the correspont one to the frequency<br />
<strong>of</strong> minimum effective precipitation F (PO), the total run<strong>of</strong>fs are identified <strong>with</strong><br />
the corrective ones, responding to terms fundamentally different so far mention<br />
ed. Neither the potential evapotranspiration, ETP, nor the Po has now any<br />
incidence in the phenomenon, as neither the value <strong>of</strong> P; the law is determined<br />
by the curve <strong>of</strong> exhaustion <strong>of</strong> the reserves <strong>of</strong> the basin, as well as by the<br />
frecuencies <strong>of</strong> the initial state <strong>of</strong> said reserves and <strong>of</strong> PO.<br />
The classical functions <strong>of</strong> frequency are not either capable <strong>of</strong><br />
being adapted simultaneously to the interval <strong>of</strong> usual values, prevailing the<br />
direct run<strong>of</strong>f <strong>of</strong> the year, and to the different interval <strong>of</strong> small values corres-<br />
pondent to the variation <strong>of</strong> the reserve. These functions treat them indiscrimi<br />
nately <strong>with</strong> an intermediate dull adjustment in which ignoring this real duplicity<br />
to get out <strong>of</strong> orbit the dry run<strong>of</strong>fs, which are precisely the decisive ones in<br />
the regulation process <strong>of</strong> a river.<br />
The article will not extend in the detail <strong>of</strong> this corrective run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
which in several cases is necessary to have present, while in the others, on<br />
the contrary, it has little importance, like what happens in impermeable basins<br />
<strong>with</strong> little variation <strong>of</strong> their reserves <strong>of</strong> a year to the next one and <strong>of</strong> which<br />
mean value and pluviometrical regularity are at least moderated, in this way<br />
the probability <strong>of</strong> precipitations close to the minimum effective one PO is<br />
extremely small not participating on the computations. The substractive term,<br />
that according to the graph <strong>of</strong> the figure 6, must be applied also to the zone <strong>of</strong><br />
strong precipitations, represents a percentage very small <strong>of</strong> the total run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
in these dates which is not worthwhile considering.
4. MAXIMUM ACTUAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION<br />
ON A DRY CLIMATE<br />
293<br />
As it has been exposed previously, the precipitations increase<br />
the availabilities <strong>of</strong> water for the evaporation and this one will increase up to<br />
the potential evapotranspiration, or more exactely to the potential evapotrang<br />
piration <strong>of</strong> the humid years which is about O, 9 times their mean value. The<br />
previous affirmation is evident to humid climates, but not so to the dry ones.<br />
In climates like the mediterranean one, there is a season <strong>of</strong> the<br />
year (Summer), when their potential evapotranspirations are maximum<br />
while the precipitations are practically null as much in dry years as in the<br />
plenty ones. It exists in these dates a permanent deficit <strong>of</strong> precipitation; the<br />
actual total evaporation <strong>of</strong> the year does not reach ever to the value <strong>of</strong> the<br />
potential one and its maximum value will be the potential evapotranspiration<br />
<strong>of</strong> the period <strong>of</strong> precipitations (ETP) p increasing in the capacity <strong>of</strong> retention<br />
<strong>of</strong> water on the soil (R) evaporating in posterior dates.<br />
Is very important that in these cases the ETPwhich intervenes in<br />
the formulas be replaced by the maximum actual evapotranspiration ETP*<br />
where (ETP)* = (ETP)p t R.<br />
It could be said that the ETP <strong>of</strong> the formula will in any case be<br />
the least <strong>of</strong> the following values:<br />
1)<br />
2)<br />
potential total evapotranspiration <strong>of</strong> the year<br />
potential evapotranspiration in the period <strong>of</strong> rains increased<br />
in the retention <strong>of</strong> the soil<br />
5. FREQUENCY L AW OF VOLUMES OF MAXIMUM FLOODS<br />
The relation between the total rainfall P’ and the volume <strong>of</strong><br />
superficial run<strong>of</strong>f A’ is <strong>of</strong> the type schematized in the figure 3 for P - A, but<br />
now, treating <strong>of</strong> a phenomenon <strong>of</strong> short duration and strong concentration <strong>of</strong><br />
rainfall, exist the following differences:<br />
. The evaporation in so short time and in an atmosphere <strong>of</strong> big<br />
relative humidity is worthless and not altering the process.
2 94<br />
The essential element is the quantity <strong>of</strong> water that can be retain<br />
ed in the soil, characterized by a minimum actual rain Pó,<br />
similar in idea to the Po <strong>of</strong> the annual run<strong>of</strong>fs but <strong>with</strong> ciphers<br />
much smaller.<br />
According to the documentation <strong>of</strong> the Soil Conservation Service<br />
<strong>of</strong> EE. UU. and verified <strong>with</strong> several studies <strong>of</strong> the author, the relation is:<br />
If P’ GPO , A’= O andif P’ >Pó<br />
universal law in relative values to Pó, which is their o<strong>nl</strong>y indetermined<br />
parameter (figure 8).<br />
The previous one, suggests the creation <strong>of</strong> a new special paper<br />
(figure 9) <strong>with</strong> scale <strong>of</strong> frequency according to Gumbel and double scale <strong>of</strong><br />
ordinates: the normal one and their transformed as:<br />
deducted from the equation (4).<br />
x = It (it JTx)<br />
If we draw the frequency law <strong>of</strong> maximum rainfalls on the mention<br />
ed paper, that same straight will define the frequencies <strong>of</strong> the volumes <strong>of</strong> flood<br />
A’ reading them in the correspondent scale. The method can not be simpler.<br />
The figure 9 shows an example <strong>of</strong> application to the basin <strong>of</strong> the Cheliff at<br />
Algerie.<br />
The hydrologists defenders <strong>of</strong> the analytical and non-graphical<br />
adjustment, o<strong>nl</strong>y have to transform the law <strong>of</strong> maximum precipitations accord-<br />
ing to formula (3) or their equivalent (4).<br />
There upon these volumes are related o<strong>nl</strong>y to surface run<strong>of</strong>f and<br />
to obtain the total ones is necessary to increase them in the correspondent<br />
groundwater run<strong>of</strong>f, worthless however in the interval <strong>of</strong> the high values, the<br />
most interesting to the calculations.<br />
In summary, once the frequency law <strong>of</strong> maximum rainfalls is<br />
defined, the process <strong>of</strong> calculation <strong>of</strong> the volumes <strong>of</strong> flood o<strong>nl</strong>y need the<br />
estimation <strong>of</strong> the value <strong>of</strong> the minimum effective rainfall PA,
295<br />
The book "<strong>Design</strong> <strong>of</strong> Small Dams" <strong>of</strong> the Bureau <strong>of</strong> Reclamation<br />
take in the information <strong>of</strong> the Soil Conservation Service and facilitates a tables<br />
which suggests values <strong>of</strong> the Pó, principally in relation to the nature and thick-<br />
ness <strong>of</strong> the soil, although modified by the type <strong>of</strong> cultivation; this book explains<br />
that each concrete case will depend naturally on the humidity <strong>of</strong> the soil in the<br />
initiation <strong>of</strong> the rainfall and the values <strong>of</strong> the formula are considered to an<br />
intermediate conditions in the dates <strong>of</strong> presentation <strong>of</strong> the floods. The author<br />
in keeping <strong>with</strong> the theory <strong>of</strong> the Soil Conservation Service but precisely by<br />
that remarkable influence <strong>of</strong> the initial humidity <strong>of</strong> the soil, the Pó <strong>of</strong> the<br />
formula has to change also in relation to the climate and in this manner, other<br />
things being equal, it will be higher in a dry one than in other humid one, where<br />
there is a big probability that at the beginning <strong>of</strong> the rainfall, the soil would be<br />
in proximate conditions to the saturation <strong>of</strong> the water.<br />
If data <strong>of</strong> flows could exist, the experimental points <strong>of</strong> the volume<br />
<strong>of</strong> superficial run<strong>of</strong>f in the maximum flood <strong>of</strong> each year <strong>of</strong> register, could<br />
advice the Pó to choose to obtain the best adjustment.<br />
The conditioning factors <strong>of</strong> Pó and <strong>of</strong> Po are basically the same<br />
and it must not be forgotten, since any information that w e can orientate in the<br />
estimation <strong>of</strong> one (for example the tables <strong>of</strong> the Soil Conservation, Service) can<br />
be used in the determination <strong>of</strong> the other.<br />
In the order <strong>of</strong> magnitude it can be said that Po is aproximately<br />
fifteen times greater than Pó ; a study directed in establishing <strong>with</strong> greater<br />
precision this relation would be interesting.<br />
6. CORRELATIONS PRECIPITATIONS-RUNOFFS<br />
The relations:<br />
2<br />
(P - Po) 2 (P'- Pó)<br />
A' =<br />
A = Pt ETP - 2 Po Y P't 4Pó<br />
are rooted in the essence <strong>of</strong> the hydrological cycle and have a big physical<br />
signification. Besides obtaining its specific end in the transformation Of<br />
frequency law, it also makes clear the types <strong>of</strong> correlation more adequate<br />
to the individual values <strong>of</strong> these variables.
296<br />
7. LIMTS OF THE METHOD<br />
This method, as any other hydrometeorological one, is not<br />
strictly applicable to a singular basin <strong>with</strong> appreciable captures <strong>of</strong> water from<br />
other zones or leakages towards them, since their flows are conditioned also<br />
by precipitations outside the said basin.<br />
It is conceived for regimes fundamentally rainy and it has not<br />
been studied for any possible adaptation to the snowy ones.
Fig. I . ESQUEMA DE SITUACION RELATIVA DE LAS LEYES DE FRECUENCIA DE "P"Y "A':<br />
RELATIVE SITUATION SCHEME Op FREQUENCY LAWS OF "P" AND "A",<br />
i<br />
4_<br />
ET P<br />
Fig.2 . ESQUEMA DE VARIACION CE 6.<br />
VARIATION SCHEME OF 6.<br />
P = Precipitacidn anual de frecuencia F.<br />
A= Aportacion especifica onud dr lo misma frecunieia<br />
F<br />
5 :Diferencio entre P y A de ia misma frecuencia F.<br />
ETP: Evapotranspiracidn pciencid.<br />
R,= Precipitacidn a cuya frecuencia F ( Po) corresponde<br />
uno aportación nula.<br />
P= Annwl pr.cipitol)an at treginncy F.<br />
297<br />
A= Annwl rprcific totalrun<strong>of</strong>f Or the SQIY fp.p-y<br />
F.<br />
P I<br />
ETP<br />
6 : DiffWlnCe beîueon P and A <strong>of</strong> iha saw m<br />
ETP x Patentid ewpotranspira tion.<br />
y F.<br />
PO= Precipitation ta which frequrnoy F( Po) Oorrewponh<br />
o null iotalrun<strong>of</strong>f.
!<br />
-f<br />
I<br />
--- Ley da Goodrich.<br />
Ley d. ßolton<br />
---<br />
4<br />
I<br />
0 1<br />
5<br />
O Puntos experimentales de atoro.<br />
Puntos rperimntoler de lluvia.<br />
-7-<br />
l !<br />
i i<br />
Fig. 4 r 5 - AJUSTE EN LA CUENCA DEL GUADALMELLATO<br />
ADJUSTEMENT AT GUADALMELLATO BASIN.<br />
-<br />
--- Qoodrich's low<br />
--- Galton's br<br />
o Annual run<strong>of</strong>f miperiiaentol peints.
AA<br />
P A<br />
299<br />
Fip. 6 y 7 - ESQUEMA DE APORTACION CORRECTIVA DE LA LEY DE FRECUENCIA DEBIDA A LA VARIACION<br />
DE L& RESERVAS.<br />
CORRECTIVE CONTRIBUTICW SCHEME OF FREOUENCY LAW WING TO VARIATION OF RESERVES<br />
P =Procipitacibn anual de frecuencio F , P =Annual precipitation <strong>of</strong> frequency F<br />
A= Apartacidn especifica M U O I de la misma frocww ' A =AnnuOJ aQocific t#alrUnolf <strong>of</strong> the s- tre-<br />
cia F. qurncy F<br />
ETP = Evapotranipiroci6n potwcial, 1 ETP- Patrntlal rwpotronspiration<br />
PO = Procì~itoci~ 0 cuyo frccunicia F(Po) corres- , PO = Proclpitotion to which frequency F(Pe) carrespande<br />
una apwtación nula. , pondi a null totalrun<strong>of</strong>f.<br />
AA = Aportación carroctiva. AA = Corroctlve totalrun<strong>of</strong>f<br />
&,= Máxima valor de la aportaci6n correctivo , AO = Maximum valu# at correctivo totalrun<strong>of</strong>f
30G<br />
- A'<br />
PA<br />
4<br />
3<br />
2<br />
i<br />
O<br />
a -RELACION ENTRE P' Y A' DE UNA MISMA FRECUENCIA.<br />
RELATION BETWEEN P' AND A' OF THE SAME FREQUENCY.<br />
- P'<br />
?A ~<br />
6 T-<br />
5 1<br />
44<br />
.- . ~- . -- -<br />
Bassin <strong>of</strong> the Cheliff river ( ALGERIE 1<br />
Pk = 35 IlMn.<br />
3 1<br />
I P'<strong>with</strong> frequency F<br />
I- -- - -- -<br />
ol , i c<br />
. ~~ -<br />
Experimental pointa P'<br />
FIP. 9. GRAFICO ESPECIAL CON DOBLE ESCALA. EN EL UHA MISMA RECTA REPRESENTA LAS LEYES DE<br />
FRECLÆNCIA DE P' Y A'.<br />
SPECIAL GRAPHIC WITH DOUBLE SCALE.ON WHICH THE SAME STRAIGHT LINE REPRESENTS THE<br />
FREQUENCY LAWS OF P' AND A'<br />
P' = Precipitación toto1 de un aguacero de frecuen- P'vTotal precipitation <strong>of</strong> o rainfall <strong>with</strong> frequency F.<br />
cia F<br />
A' = Volumen de escorrentia auperficio( de b misma A', surface run<strong>of</strong>f volume <strong>of</strong> the rame frequency F<br />
frecuencia F en mdrimaa avenidar.<br />
in maximum floods.<br />
Ph= Precipitación de un opuacero do frecuencia - PA= Precipitotlon <strong>of</strong> o rainfall <strong>with</strong> frequency F( Po 1 to<br />
F ( PO ) o lo que correrpondo una escorreniio which corresponds o null rurtoce rurl<strong>of</strong>f.<br />
superficiai nulo
ABSTRACT<br />
TRAITEMENT OPERATIONNEL DES DONNES PLUVIOMETRIQUES<br />
ENTACHEES D'ERREURS OU INSUFFISANTES<br />
R. Trendel - Der Megreditchian - Mme Rulliere<br />
The Bureau <strong>of</strong> <strong>Water</strong> <strong>of</strong> the National Meteorology, at present<br />
applies a method that allow us, under certain hypothesis, to obtain<br />
the equation <strong>of</strong> lineal multiple regression, which permits to<br />
calculate the theoretical values <strong>of</strong> the monthly rains. The<br />
application <strong>of</strong> this formula is possible by the existance <strong>of</strong> base<br />
data, corresponding to each season an index actual value/theore-<br />
tical value that is useful to correct.<br />
In this way, we can calculate the values <strong>of</strong> theoretical rain,<br />
that allow to correct and complete the series, and also the rainy<br />
periods in season <strong>with</strong>out data or <strong>with</strong> inadequate data. It is<br />
carried out an analysis <strong>of</strong> correlation to establish the degree <strong>of</strong><br />
guaranty <strong>of</strong> this method and to choose the parameter to use in the<br />
different possible hypothesis and, particulary, the iterative<br />
method <strong>of</strong> Van Isacker.<br />
-- RESUME<br />
Le Bureau de l'Eau de La Météorologie Nationale applique<br />
actuellement une méthode opérationnelle, découlant sous certaines<br />
hypothèses de l'équation de regression linéaire multiple, permettant<br />
de calculer des valeurs dites "théoriques" des pluies mensuelles.<br />
L'application de cette formule est rendue possible grâce à<br />
l'existence d'un important fichier de normales. A chaque estation<br />
correspondant un indice (valeur réelle/valeur théoriqye), il est<br />
alors aisé de repérer les valeurs qui divergent trop a l'intérieur<br />
d'une même zÔne d'homogénéité.<br />
On calcule ainsi les valeurs de la pluie "théorique"<br />
permettant de combler les données manquantes et de pallier les<br />
erreurs les pius grossières.<br />
De même, pour les précipitations, on calcule les valeurs<br />
mensuelles et s'il y a lieu, celles des episodes pluvieux, pour<br />
les poster fermés ou insuffisants.<br />
On effectue une analyse de corrélation pour étayer le degré<br />
de validité de la méthode opérationnelle et effectuer le choix des<br />
paramètres à utiliser. On examine les possibilités <strong>of</strong>fertes dans<br />
ce domaine par la méthode des composantes principales, en parti-<br />
culier sous la forme itérative de Van Isacker.<br />
Différents critères sont également testés pour déceler les<br />
valeurs douteuses, éventuellement entachées d'erreurs.<br />
Certaines indications sont fournies sur la répartition<br />
rationnelle du réseau pluviométrique.
302<br />
I - DETECTION AUTOMATIQUE DES ERREURS :<br />
1 - Pl~~e_theoriq~e_'encuelle<br />
Le Bureau de L'Eau de la Météorologie Nationale a mis au point<br />
une méthode permettant la critique automatique dos données pluvio-<br />
métriques. Elle est appliquée dans le domaine relativement peu<br />
étendu d'un département français; elle utilise une formule empi-<br />
rique permettant de calculer 1a"pluie théorique" mensuelle pour<br />
une station donnée, en fonction de la somme pondérée des valeurs<br />
réelles de la pluie mensuelle aux autres stations du département.<br />
considéré, les coefficients de pondération étant le rapport du<br />
seuil de référence de cette station 5 celui des autres stations.<br />
La formule proposée est de la forme :<br />
O0 .~<br />
Pth - p luie théorique mensuelle de la station à étudier<br />
m - seuil de référence de cette station<br />
ms - seuil de référence de La station s<br />
Pr(s)-pluie réelle mensuelle de la station s<br />
n - nombre de stationssans données manquantes utilisées<br />
pour.l'interpolation<br />
La formule précitée découle de la formule utilisée en analyse<br />
objective pour l'interpolation de Gandine.<br />
Les seuils de référence des stations pluviométriques ont ete<br />
obtenus en partant des normales mensuelles publiées par la Météoro<br />
log i e Franc a i se C.13<br />
______________---_--<br />
Indice d'homogénéité<br />
On appellera indice d'homogénéité le rapport "pluie réelle<br />
mensuelle/pluie théorique mensuelle" calculé pour une station<br />
donnée. IL est bien evident que ce rapport sera nul pour une sta-<br />
tion ne possédant aucune donnée pendant le mois étudié, et qu'il<br />
sera inférieur 5 la valeur réelle si la station possède des don-<br />
nees manquantes.<br />
Lorsque l'on porte les valeurs des indices de toutes les sta-<br />
tions du département sur une carte, i l apparait des zÔnes d'homo-<br />
généite bien délimitees 5 l'intérieur desquelles ces valeurs sont<br />
très voisines; ce qui veut dire que, dans ces zÔnes, Les pluies<br />
sont fortement corrélées. Les stations ne s'inscrivant pas dans<br />
La répartition spatiale des indices sur le département sont jugees<br />
douteuses; telle est la base de la critique proposée.<br />
_______ ~<br />
~<br />
2 - Pluie mensuelle _______ -_----<br />
estimée<br />
Pour I estimation de Ta pluie mensuelle des stations possbUdi~t<br />
une série incomp!&te, nous utilisons la somme pondérée des indjccs<br />
d'homogénéite relatifs aux trois stations complètes lec. plus ~r'oches<br />
multiplice par la pluie theorique de la station en question.<br />
. . ./
Ob<br />
La formule est de La forme :<br />
'est - pluie mensuelle estimée de,la station à étudier<br />
KS - facteur de pondération relatif à la station s<br />
CS - indice d'homogénéité de la station s<br />
303<br />
Pth - pluie théorique mensuelle de ta station à étudier<br />
Le facteur de pondération utilisé ici est fonction de l'inverse<br />
des distances entre stations.<br />
3 - ------------ Décalages et --------- anomalies -<br />
Pour rechercher des anomalies ou décalages éventuels, souvent<br />
dus à des erreurs de transcription, nous appliquons le principe<br />
suivant :<br />
On considere qu'une valeur journali&re (nous la noterons flk)<br />
est décalée ou anomale si :<br />
a) O, alors que la valeur journalière pour chacune des<br />
trois stations les plus proches est supérieure<br />
ou égale à 1 mm.<br />
b) vk<br />
supérieur à 3 mm. avec une valeur jour<strong>nl</strong>ière nulle<br />
aux trois stations les plus proches.<br />
Dans Les deux cas, i l faut que les conditions suivantes soient<br />
vérifiées pour un jour donné;<br />
nombre de stations <strong>of</strong> = O 1<br />
nombre total de stations<br />
G?T<br />
4 - ------ Cumuls<br />
nombre de stations où ,><br />
nombre total de stations<br />
3 mm. 1<br />
O0 Cjlest(j) - p luie journalière estimée au jour j a la station<br />
étudiée<br />
Fil-(s,j> - pluie réelle journalière La station s Le jour j<br />
- pluie cumulée de la station étudiée<br />
n,<br />
"1<br />
- ler jour des données cumulées<br />
"2 - dernier jour du. cumul ("1 \< j < n2)<br />
Dans la formule (I), nous utilisons un seuil de référence établi<br />
a partir des normales établies par Angot en 1913 pour la periode<br />
1850-1900. Pour les stations n'existant pas à cette époque, ce<br />
seuil est obtenu par la méthode du tracé des isohyètes. Pour avoir<br />
des valeurs aussi précises que possible, nous corrigeons reguli&rement<br />
ce seuil de reference au fur et 3 mesure du développement<br />
du fichier.<br />
Pour cela, nous calculons les moyennes mensuelles des données<br />
du fichier, en tenant compte s'il y a lieu, des observations manquantes.<br />
Ces moyennes considérées comme pluies réelles dans la<br />
formule (1) permettent de calculer les indices d'homogénéite qui<br />
devraient être voisins de 1. Si les coefficients appartiennent à<br />
l'intervalle (0,90 ; 1,îO) la normale est acceptée, sinon elle<br />
est modifiée.<br />
II - REMPLACEMENT DES DONNEES MANQUANTES OU ABERRANTES PAR DES<br />
VALEURS C ALC ULEES.<br />
------ 1Pre méthode - ----- :<br />
En cas de donnees manquantes, la formule (2) permet de calculer<br />
la pluie estimée. Si la différence "pluie estimée-pluie réelle"<br />
est négative, les données manquantes de la station ne sont pas recherchées<br />
car, dans la plupart des cas, elles correspondent a des<br />
traces ou 5 des cumuls oubliés.<br />
Pour calculer ces données, nous utilisons toujours le même<br />
principe de pondération, ce qui conduit A la formule :<br />
Test(j) - pluie estimée du jour j de la station étudiée<br />
V%(s,j) - pluie réelle journalière de la station s le jourj<br />
R m - pluie réelle mensuelle de la station à étudier<br />
- nombre de pkriodes distinctes de donnees manquantes<br />
"1 1 - ler jour de donnees manquantes de la lierne pbriode<br />
n2(<br />
- dernier jour de cette période(<strong>nl</strong>l
305<br />
--------<br />
REMARQUE<br />
Cette méthode ne donne pas toujours des résultats acceptables.<br />
a) Lorsque la station dont on veut calculer la pluie estimee se<br />
trouve à la frontière séparant deux zônes de répartition spatiale<br />
différentes des indices d'homogénéité, la pondération<br />
utilisée relative aux trois stations les plus proches, traduit<br />
une distribution particuliere des poids qui peut s'éloigner de<br />
la réalité.<br />
b) Alors que les indices d'homogénéité caractérisent les précipi-<br />
tations mensuelles aux stations, ils entrent dans le calcul de<br />
la pluie journalière estimée.<br />
Pour toutes ces raisons, i l a été nécessaire de réduire l'échelle<br />
du temps. La critique automatique des données pluviométriques<br />
est maintenant appliquée aux épisodes pluvieux. L'efficacit6 de ce<br />
procédé a déjà éte vérifié par l'étude de certains mois ne présentant<br />
qu'une seule période pluvieuse.<br />
Pour pallier ces difficultés, nous avons mis au point une deuxième<br />
méthode permettant d'orienter Le choix du météorologiste.<br />
------------<br />
2ème methode :<br />
Elle est basée sur la recherche d'un rapport de proportionnalité<br />
moyen entre la somme des précipitations correspondant aux périodes<br />
des données manquantes et la différence du total mensuel complet<br />
avec cette somme.<br />
I Nous utilisons ici les trois stations les plus proches sans<br />
données manquantes.<br />
Appelons Pr(l), Pr(2), Pr(3) les totaux mensuels respectifs de<br />
la première, seconde et tro.isikme stations.<br />
DI, D2, D3 la somme des précipitations tombées respectivement<br />
à ces trois stations durant les périodes considérées.<br />
P/,(s), la différence Pr(s) - Ds (s variant de 1 3 3).<br />
Nous calculons : 3<br />
K=Z K s L (5)<br />
s=' P;(q<br />
OU Ks est un facteur de pondération, fonction de l'inverse de la dis-<br />
tance séparant la station étudiée de la station s.<br />
Connaissant P:, le total mensuel incomplet de la station étudiée,<br />
et La valeur de K d'après la formule (5), nous pouvons ecrire :<br />
ob D représente la somme des précipitations correspondantes aux<br />
jours des données manquantes pour la station étudiée.<br />
Pour calculer les quantités journalibres manquantes, i l suffit<br />
de reprendre la formule (4) utilisée pour la première méthode en<br />
remp1,açant par D.<br />
(6)
0<br />
Y I<br />
. 0<br />
I-<br />
I-<br />
C 2<br />
i1<br />
4<br />
W<br />
Ii<br />
.I- U<br />
c<br />
I-<br />
- .e W<br />
N N N<br />
n n n<br />
I I<br />
c .<br />
o<br />
4 L<br />
O<br />
e.<br />
I<br />
52<br />
306
1 - 1 1 I<br />
~:ooooooooooooooooooooooooo 00000<br />
n~ooooooooooooooooooo~~oooo 00000<br />
t<br />
Q:000000000000000O0000Q0000 00000<br />
t<br />
yI toe, 00.0 oo oooo 0-0 oo o oo a a o o o oo.oee<br />
.I<br />
*~00O0O00000000000000000000 00000<br />
t<br />
s-~ooooooooooooooooooooooooo ooooa<br />
t<br />
Q~OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO O0000<br />
*<br />
m80000000000000000000000009 O0000<br />
e<br />
w a<br />
æ<br />
-i1 O.<br />
W O<br />
-<br />
a<br />
Y<br />
w<br />
a<br />
=-<br />
Y<br />
O<br />
v-<br />
-a 23<br />
cn<br />
v-<br />
a<br />
m<br />
o ><br />
z<br />
T<br />
a<br />
308<br />
I I I - CALCUL A PARTIR DES STATIONS EXISTANTES DES VALEURS MENSUELLES<br />
ET DES EPISODES PLUVIEUX POUR LES POSTES FERMES OU INSUFFISANTS<br />
Les développements précédents nous permettent de :<br />
1 - calculer le seuil de référence d'une station dont les données<br />
n'existent que pour une période très courte (2 ou 3 ans)<br />
sous réserve cependant qu'elles ne soient pas erronées.<br />
2 - déterminer d'après la formule (1) La pluie théorique d'une<br />
station B l'aide de son seuil de référence et des données<br />
disponibles pour les autres stations du département<br />
3 - calculer la pluie estimée d'après la formule (21, (Le météo-<br />
rologiste pouvant éventuellement l'obtenir B partir de la car-<br />
te des indices d'homogénéité) '<br />
4 - rechercher les pluies journalières en utilisant les formules<br />
(1) (2) et (4) dans Le cadre des épisodes pluvieux.<br />
Les impératifs de l'élaboration d'un fichier valable de pluvio-<br />
métrie avaient déterminé l'adoption dans la pratique opérationnelie<br />
de la méthode simple de critique des données, que nous venons d'ex-<br />
poser.<br />
Parallèlement B cela, Le Bureau de L'Eau a poursuivi des recher-<br />
ches théoriques afin d'elucid.er le degré de validité de la méthode<br />
adoptée et les améliorations qu'il convenait de lui apporter.<br />
IV - 'LE PROBLEME DES DONNEES MANQUANTES C8,3,43<br />
Quatre methodes ont été vérifiées sur un fichier donnant les<br />
hauteurs des pluies journalieres en 15 stations des Côtes du Nord<br />
pour les mois de Janvier de 1'1 années consécutives (de 1961 2 1971)<br />
1 - Analyse en composantes principales<br />
__________-I_---------------------<br />
Le principe de La méthode est le suivant :<br />
On passe des données initia1es:r;ii valeur de la pluie le jour<br />
i B la station j aux données centrees'réduites =;i 3c.i , où<br />
m<br />
ni % SJ<br />
x.j:A Xij , Sj '2 2 (lu- .<br />
i:4 b-4<br />
les valeurs manquantes étant remplacées par la moyenne mensuelle<br />
de la station concernée. On calcule les valeurs propres A; et Les<br />
vecteurs propresci de la matrice de corrélation. Les composantes<br />
principales sont alors déterminées par la transformation linéaire<br />
des données initiales 3 l'aide de la matrice des vecteurs propres.<br />
On effectue une reconstitution approchée du fichi'er initial en<br />
ne conservant que les premibres composantes principales. Les va-<br />
leurs manquantes sont alors remplacées par les valeurs ainsi re-<br />
constitu6es.<br />
L'efficacité de la méthode est mesurée B l'aide du coefficient
30 9<br />
ry<br />
où x est ta vraie valeur, ta valeur reconstituée,gx L'écart<br />
moyen quadratique pour La station concernee, N Le nombre des "trous"<br />
supplémentaires introduits dans le fichier de façon aléatoire afin<br />
de tester la methode, La sommation étant etendue à toutes les va-<br />
leurs de x correspondant aux trous supplémentaires.<br />
Une étude expérimentale a montre que le nombre optimum de com-<br />
posantes principales retenues pour reconstituer le fichier initial<br />
était n = 4.<br />
---_--_-__-<br />
--___- ----------<br />
2 - Analyse des correspondances<br />
La méthode est analogue 3 la première mais, au Lieu de passer<br />
aux variables centrées réduites =Li -3C.L on utilise La trans-<br />
6J<br />
formation classique en analyse des correspondances<br />
I *<br />
où xi.=- L.r..est la te jour i pour L'ensemn<br />
jz4 Y<br />
1<br />
ble du département, x.j=-g x~j est La moyenne mensuelle à la<br />
1 m ir4<br />
station j et x..=-P =.j=L 2 ~~.<br />
n j:d<br />
rn ir4<br />
Les valeurs propres de la matrice de corrélation des nouvelles<br />
V ariables tij sont très voisines: 1,24 . 10-2
v -<br />
310<br />
I -4<br />
Pour maximiser {()o on minimise La forme quadratique x V X .<br />
La condition de minimum est ainsi<br />
X'V'1dX = O<br />
si t'on pose XI, =Z,--- ~n les valeurs connues et "&+d j - - - -1<br />
7t, les valeurs inconnues (manquantes) la condition de minimum<br />
s'-écrira<br />
.-<br />
On obtient n-k équations à n-k inconnues pour determiner les<br />
valeurs inconnues x p+4 > ---- =,.<br />
b) On ne connait pas Vxx. On calcule alors les covariances, couple<br />
par couple, en effectuant la sommation pour les valeurs simultnnement<br />
non-manquantes pour chaque couple donné. On obtient ainsi une<br />
matrice Vxx, qui n'est pas nécessairement definie positive étant<br />
donné que les indices de sommation =ont étendus à des ensembles<br />
differents. On diagonalise ensuite Vxx, on range Les valeurs.propres<br />
par ordrededécroissance et on ne conserve que celles d'entre<br />
elles qui sont supérieures 5 un seuil positif donne. Un seuil optimal<br />
semble exister qui est d'.autant plus grand que la taille de<br />
l'échantillon est petite.<br />
On a presenté dans le tableau 1 les valeurs du coefficient 6'<br />
(c-f 7) en fonction du pourcentage de trous dans le fichier pour<br />
les trois premikres méthodes retenues.<br />
Le tableau Z permet de comparer, pour la quatrième méthode, Le<br />
gain obtenu en remplaçant la .donnee manquante, non pas par La valeur<br />
moyenne mais, par la valeur reconstituee à l'aide de cette<br />
méthode, les crit&re_c de qualité étant respec.tivement,E(r-;E)',<br />
E(~c-2)~<br />
et -4-t*Cr,~).<br />
RECHERCHE DES ZONES HOMOGENES DE PLUVIOMETRIE PAR UNE METHODE DE<br />
VISUALISATION DE MATRICE D'INTERDISTANCE<br />
Soit N points dans l'espace RP . On construit La matrice symetrique<br />
NxN dont les termes sont les distances euclidiennes entre<br />
points, mesurés dans l'espace R<br />
P ;<br />
On recherche une représentation plane des N points XI, Xz, ...,<br />
XN deRP à l'aide de N points images YI, Yz,-Yp de Rz, de façon<br />
à ce que la distance entre deux points images Yi et Yj soit La<br />
plus proche possible de la distance entre Xi et Xj. ,<br />
Pour cela, on part d'une configuration arbitraire des Yi et on.<br />
deplace ces points de façon a minimiser un critere de type Xa<br />
entre distances reelles et distances images. Cette methode ne neces<br />
site pas de diagonalisation de la matrice de distanceset peut être<br />
aisement mise en oeuvre. La pr8cision de La visualisation diminue<br />
quand le nombre de points augmente. I l semble toutefois possible<br />
de traiter des matrices 15Ox15C avec une précision de reppesen'<br />
tation satisfaisante.
Pourcentage de trous<br />
dans le fichier<br />
Méthode des composantes<br />
principales<br />
Analyse des<br />
correspondances<br />
Méthode de<br />
regression<br />
15,19 19,6 24,3 29,4 32,9<br />
o,33<br />
31 1<br />
0,34 0,26 0,35 0,51<br />
O ,33 0,36 0,20 O ,33<br />
0,30 O ,30 0,21 0,32 0,46<br />
Tableau I - Valeurs des 6% en fonction des pourcentages de<br />
trous dans le fichier<br />
tations<br />
1 o1<br />
161<br />
471<br />
1131<br />
1211<br />
1271<br />
1581<br />
1681<br />
1711<br />
2101<br />
21 51<br />
2231<br />
2281<br />
2 62.1<br />
--<br />
E(X -%y<br />
381<br />
335<br />
755<br />
343<br />
797<br />
359<br />
5 79<br />
253<br />
43 4<br />
391<br />
327<br />
41 6<br />
390<br />
761<br />
3621<br />
51 2<br />
T'ablcau 2<br />
JANVIER<br />
E(*- ;y 1 - r2<br />
2795 0,14<br />
1454<br />
2864<br />
1318<br />
1844<br />
649<br />
3453<br />
1632<br />
21 59<br />
1236<br />
1477<br />
2533<br />
2791<br />
2418<br />
1699<br />
O ,23<br />
0,26<br />
0,26<br />
0,43<br />
0,55<br />
0,16<br />
0,15<br />
0,20<br />
0,32<br />
0,23<br />
0,16<br />
0,14<br />
O ,31<br />
0,30<br />
:(x -ry<br />
319<br />
177<br />
179<br />
1 o1<br />
191<br />
97<br />
409<br />
145<br />
220<br />
160<br />
3 85<br />
2 88<br />
186<br />
161<br />
221<br />
JUILLET<br />
E(X-%)=<br />
1542<br />
Y65<br />
992<br />
1126<br />
1027<br />
257<br />
1311<br />
1262<br />
2285<br />
822<br />
1 3 2'ï'<br />
1413<br />
1448<br />
1511<br />
85 1<br />
0,21<br />
0,18<br />
0,18<br />
0,09<br />
0,18<br />
O ,38<br />
0,31<br />
0,11<br />
0,10<br />
0,19<br />
0,29<br />
o ,20<br />
0,13<br />
0,1Î<br />
0,26
312<br />
A partir de 24 stations notées A,B,C,-, X dans la région Sud-<br />
Ouest de la France (Fig 2), on a construit 12 matrices de distances<br />
(une par mois) B partir des hauteurs de pluie journali6res rele-<br />
vées dans chaque station. Ces douze matrices ont été visualisées;<br />
on trouvera en exemple (Fig 3)les deux visualisations Décembre et<br />
Mai. Il a eté possible de trouver quatre g'roupes de stations voi-<br />
sines qui se retrouvent sur chaque visualisation.<br />
Ces groupes ont été reportes sur la carte et correspondent A<br />
des zbnes pluviométriques homogènes en ce sens que deux stations<br />
d'un même groupe cont"proches" vis 3 vis de la pluviométrie.<br />
Ces th6mes de recherche ont été développés sous l'egide du<br />
Bureau de L'Eau et rendus opérationnels avec La participation<br />
active de Mrs. B.RAMBALDELL1, J.F. ROYER, J.C. BARESCUT, J.ZIRPHILE.<br />
Notons en conclusion.que ces recherches se poursuivent au<br />
Bureau de L'Eau et que d'autres methodes d'analyse des données<br />
sont également étudiées dans le but de parvenir 3 une meilleure<br />
connaissance du champ de pluviométrie.<br />
REFERENCES BIBLIOGRAPHIQUES<br />
CI1 ANGOT A. (1911-1914) Annales du Bureau Central Meteorologique<br />
de France<br />
C21 BUCK S.F. (1960) A method <strong>of</strong> estimation <strong>of</strong> missing values in<br />
multivariate data suitable for use <strong>with</strong> an electronic computer.<br />
Journal <strong>of</strong> the Royal Stat'istical Society, Series 8.22<br />
pp. 302-306<br />
C31 AFIFI A.A., Elash<strong>of</strong>f R.H. (1966). Missing observations in<br />
multivariate statistics. Journal <strong>of</strong> the American Statistical<br />
Association. 61 pp. 595-604.<br />
C41 KELEJAN H.H. (1969). Missing observations in multivariate<br />
regression : e fficiency <strong>of</strong> a first order methods. American<br />
Statistical Association Journal. 65 pp 1609-1616.<br />
C51 SAMMON J.U. (1969). A no<strong>nl</strong>inear mapping for data structure<br />
analysis. IEEE Transactions on computers - Vol C - 18, N' 5<br />
pp. 401-409.
I<br />
Fig. 1 - ndiccs d'homogéneitE<br />
5'<br />
I<br />
ARNE<br />
I<br />
31 3
314<br />
Fig.2 -<br />
12 BIS<br />
Fig.3 - Exemple de visualisation des matrices d’interdis-<br />
tances.
INFLUENCE OF INADEQUACY OF HYDROLOGICAL DATA<br />
ON PROJECT DESIGX AND I'ORMULATION<br />
GENERAL REPORT<br />
by<br />
Leo R. Beard ( 1)<br />
NATURE OF DATA INFLUENCE ON PROJECT DESIGN<br />
In evaluating the effect <strong>of</strong> data inadequacy on water resources project<br />
design, it is important to recognize that a moderate error in project size that<br />
might result is not necessarily accompanied by a proportional over-all loss in<br />
project net benefits. As a matter <strong>of</strong> fact, the difference between benefits<br />
derived from almost any water resources project and the costs <strong>of</strong> that project<br />
changes very little over a relatively large range <strong>of</strong> project size in the vicinity<br />
<strong>of</strong> optimum project size. However, it is in this range that added uncertainty<br />
in design reduces project net benefits on the average, beca:ice net benefits<br />
decrease in both directions from the optimum, and, even thoiigh increased expected<br />
cost due to uncertainty is usually a smaìl fraction <strong>of</strong> the total project cost, it<br />
can be large enough to justify care and extra cost in obtaining data for more<br />
reliable design.<br />
When project design level is quite different from tconomic optimum<br />
(and this can occur because <strong>of</strong> financial constraints, political constraints, and<br />
other factors) , then the net project benefits change vei *J rapidly <strong>with</strong> errors in<br />
design magnitude, but these errors tend largely to carit-el in the expectation<br />
computation. Hence, in general but not always, errors in determining over-all<br />
project size have far less than a proportional effect on project net benefits,<br />
provided that the project operation can be modified as necessary to make effective<br />
use <strong>of</strong> the project facilities under conditions different from those anticipated<br />
during design.<br />
On the other hand, rather minor inadequacies in data can have an unex-<br />
pectedly large effect on the over-all project size. In flood control design, for<br />
example, errors due to data inadequacies can cause differences as great as a<br />
factor <strong>of</strong> 2 or 3 in estimating extreme flood sizes corresponding to specified<br />
exceedence probabilities. In the case <strong>of</strong> drought regulation (water supply) , a<br />
change in magnitude or duration <strong>of</strong> a prolonged drought can result in differences as<br />
great as a factor <strong>of</strong> 2 or 3 in the amount <strong>of</strong> supplementary supply (usually storage)<br />
(l)Technical Director, Center for Research in <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong>, The University <strong>of</strong><br />
Texas, Austin, Texas, USA.
316<br />
that must be provided for. Here again, though, project design magnitude<br />
does not necessarily respond linearly to changes in flood or drought magnitude,<br />
because cost and benefit considerations have a strong dampening or stabilizing<br />
influence.<br />
INFLUENCE OF DATA INADEQUACY ON PROJECT SIZE<br />
Considering then, that there is no simple relationship between data<br />
inadequacy and project net benefits, it is safe to say that evaluation <strong>of</strong> the<br />
effects <strong>of</strong> data inadequacies on design requires a detailed study <strong>of</strong> the<br />
inadequacies and all <strong>of</strong> the interrelated factors that influence project design.<br />
Such detailed studies have been demonstrated in rather simplified applications<br />
in work cited by Mr. lames and used as a basis <strong>of</strong> the studies described by<br />
Mr. James.<br />
In his paper, “Data Requirements for the Optimization <strong>of</strong> Reservoir<br />
<strong>Design</strong> and Operating Rule Determination ,” Mr. James develops the theory<br />
and some practical demonstrations for determining the optimum length <strong>of</strong><br />
stream gaging stations where their value for reservoir design and operation<br />
alone is considered. In effect, the question to be answered is, how soon<br />
should gaging records be started if a project will be constructed at some<br />
distant time in the future. His basic solution is first for a known future<br />
construction time, and then he considers uncertainty in the time <strong>of</strong> construction.<br />
Benefits <strong>of</strong> gaging records are a function <strong>of</strong> increased efficiency <strong>of</strong> design and<br />
operation.<br />
Although much simplification <strong>of</strong> the design and operation problems is<br />
assumed, the concepts developed by Mr. James are <strong>of</strong> fundamental importance.<br />
It is interesting to note that optimum record periods are in the order <strong>of</strong> 25 to<br />
50 years, but there is insufficient information in the paper to determine whether<br />
the basis <strong>of</strong> these results is real or largely assumed. Perhaps the author could<br />
elaborate on this.<br />
Stream gaging records are <strong>of</strong> value for many things other than project<br />
design. It would be helpful if the author could express some opinions on whether<br />
other benefits exceed these or are rather minor. It would seem <strong>of</strong>f-hand that our<br />
great heritage <strong>of</strong> hydrologic data could not have been justified many years ago on<br />
such grounds alone, and yet w e know Chat the body <strong>of</strong> data that now exists is<br />
invaluable.
INFLUENCE OF DATA INADEQUACY ON METHODOLOGY<br />
317<br />
In addition to affecting the size <strong>of</strong> a project, data inadequacies can<br />
greatly influen..e the methodology used in planning and designing a project.<br />
Pr<strong>of</strong>essor Reid o in his paper, "Tiie <strong>Design</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Water</strong> Quality Management<br />
<strong>Projects</strong> <strong>with</strong> <strong>Inadequate</strong> Data, " points out that mathematical models must<br />
be built <strong>with</strong> availability <strong>of</strong> data in mind, that there is never as much data as<br />
needed, and that the o<strong>nl</strong>y defense against inadequate data is judgment. He<br />
describes a number <strong>of</strong> water quality models very briefly in the form <strong>of</strong> mathe-<br />
matical equations, but does not attempt to describe their purpose or application<br />
or to delineate the need for data in each case. Perhaps he could elaborate on<br />
this. He expresses some thoughts on the cost <strong>of</strong> waiting for more data before<br />
designing a project, and points out that an important element is the zost <strong>of</strong><br />
postponing the stream <strong>of</strong> net benefits from the project.<br />
Dr. Reid suggests 8 quality parameters that are commo<strong>nl</strong>y measured in<br />
the U.S. <strong>with</strong> adequate reliability and accuracy and at reasonable cost. It<br />
would be helpful to discuss these in relation to the models described, <strong>with</strong><br />
particular attention to data gaps that would exist if o<strong>nl</strong>y these paranieters are<br />
measured.<br />
Dr. Reid also suggests a time scale for a progressive pollution abate-<br />
ment program, showing abatement <strong>of</strong> lake eutrophication by 1980, reuse by<br />
1990 and recycling by 2000. This is apparently for the United States, but<br />
would be <strong>of</strong> interest to other countries. It would help if some <strong>of</strong> the abbrevia-<br />
tions used would be explained, if distinction between reuse and recycle is<br />
explained, and if the basis for or origin <strong>of</strong> the table were stated.<br />
METHODS USABLE WITH INADEQUATE DATA<br />
Two other papers prepared for this session describe specific methodology<br />
that should be used when data inadequacies exist.<br />
In the paper, "<strong>Design</strong>ing <strong>Projects</strong> for the Development <strong>of</strong> Ground <strong>Water</strong><br />
<strong>Resources</strong> in the Alluvial Plains <strong>of</strong> Northern India on the Basis <strong>of</strong> inadequate<br />
Data, " Sarherwal describes generalized ground-water yield criteria, developed<br />
for guidance in developing ground-water supplies in the Punjab until such time<br />
as systematic data on ground-water reservoirs becomes available. The develop-<br />
ment <strong>of</strong> high-yield crops has occasioned a marked increase in ground-water<br />
exploitation as an assured supply for critical irrigation needs. In order to<br />
further increase the use <strong>of</strong> ground water effectively, studies based on such<br />
criteria are essential.
318<br />
The criteria described are based on approximating the pertinent<br />
components <strong>of</strong> the hydrologic cycle. Of primary concern are those components<br />
associated <strong>with</strong> replenishment <strong>of</strong> the ground-water supplies. Formulas are<br />
given for the amount <strong>of</strong> rainfall that contributes to deep percolation, seepage<br />
from lined and u<strong>nl</strong>ined canals, recharge from water courses, and return<br />
seepage from irrigated fields. It was found that horizontal movement <strong>of</strong> ground<br />
water is very small compared to vertical recharge and could therefore be<br />
ignored in this set <strong>of</strong> approximate criteria. <strong>Water</strong> <strong>with</strong>drawal criteria consist<br />
<strong>of</strong> generalized values for evaporation from water-logged areas and draft from<br />
various types <strong>of</strong> wells.<br />
Planning <strong>of</strong> new wells is based on a water balance study using these<br />
generalized criteria and a safety factor dependent on the region. An example<br />
<strong>of</strong> criteria application is given for the Bist Doab Tract.<br />
Mr . Sarherwal supports his paper <strong>with</strong> an abundance <strong>of</strong> background<br />
material indicating the importance <strong>of</strong> this subject to the economy, to the<br />
ecology and to social conditions in India. It would appear that some elaboration<br />
on the role <strong>of</strong> surface water development in conjunction <strong>with</strong> ground water<br />
management would also be very useful in such an outstanding paper.<br />
In their paper, "<strong>Design</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> <strong>Projects</strong> <strong>with</strong> <strong>Inadequate</strong><br />
Data in India - General and Particular Case Studies," Banerji and La1<br />
describe a variety <strong>of</strong> methods used in India for the estimation <strong>of</strong> design<br />
floods and for monthly and seasonal run<strong>of</strong>f quantities.<br />
Rough approximations <strong>of</strong> seasonal run<strong>of</strong>f from monsoon rainfall are<br />
obtained <strong>with</strong> Strange's Table <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f ratios for apparently arbitrary<br />
categories <strong>of</strong> good, average and bad catchments. A less arbitrary method<br />
<strong>of</strong> estimating run<strong>of</strong>f from rainfall uses Khosla's Formuld, which simply<br />
substracts monthly evaporation and transpiration loss from monthly precipi-<br />
tation. The loss is a universal, unique function <strong>of</strong> average monthly temperature.<br />
A modified formula is given for calculating annual loss from annual temperature<br />
in order to compute annual run<strong>of</strong>f from annual rainfall.<br />
A third technique for obtaining run<strong>of</strong>f from rainfall is the correlation<br />
<strong>of</strong> short run<strong>of</strong>f records <strong>with</strong> rainfall on an annual or monsoon-season basis<br />
and then estimating run<strong>of</strong>f for all the years <strong>of</strong> rainfall reco<strong>nl</strong>. The fourth<br />
technique uses the standard unit-hydrograph method for relating run<strong>of</strong>f to<br />
rainfall.
319<br />
Methods <strong>of</strong> estimating peak flows include empirical formulas<br />
relating maximum observed floods to size <strong>of</strong> catchment area , envelope<br />
curves <strong>of</strong> maximum floods and regional flood frequency analysis. Criteria<br />
are given for obtaining probable maximum precipitation and unit-hydrographs<br />
for ungaged catchments. An interesting exponential recession technique<br />
in lieu <strong>of</strong> the unit-hydrograph technique is described.<br />
The authors do not discuss the degree <strong>of</strong> development or <strong>of</strong> flood<br />
protection that is needed for various types <strong>of</strong> structures, so it is difficult<br />
to visualize how their criteria would be applied for a great variety <strong>of</strong><br />
structures such as culverts, levees, dams and spillways, where there is<br />
a great range in the degree <strong>of</strong> safety needed. Also, they do not indicate the<br />
degree <strong>of</strong> adequacy <strong>of</strong> the methods and whether further development <strong>of</strong><br />
methodology or increased amounts <strong>of</strong> data would substantially improve the<br />
reliability <strong>of</strong> project design. It appears that they are in an excellent<br />
position to render judgment in this matter, and perhaps they would do so<br />
in their discussion at this session.<br />
MINIMUM DATA REQUIREMENTS<br />
There is always the question as to the minimum data required for any<br />
design, and, <strong>of</strong> course, this varies <strong>with</strong> the type <strong>of</strong> project and level <strong>of</strong><br />
development. In a paper, "Minor water Resource <strong>Projects</strong> Formulation<br />
on Micro Hydrological Data for Standardization and Quicker Execution<br />
in Developing Areas: Guidelines, " received through written communication,<br />
Mr. Sikka discusses the problems <strong>of</strong> data needs in reldtion to development<br />
<strong>of</strong> projects <strong>of</strong> moderate size. He supplies a list <strong>of</strong> miriimum data requirements,<br />
which should be <strong>of</strong> value to countries outside <strong>of</strong> India as well as to India.<br />
These include topographic and soil mapping, many types <strong>of</strong> hydrologic data<br />
and data on irrigation efficiency. Special emphasis is placed on the fact<br />
that past drought periods can be exceeded in the future and that this should<br />
be taken into account in design.
320<br />
Mr. Sikka discusses environmental impacts and the needs for indices<br />
<strong>of</strong> environmental conditions and for value weights that can be related to<br />
economic efficiency benefits and costs. He lists water and air quality,<br />
wilderness and scientific areas, esthetic features and wildlife habitats<br />
as environmental elements <strong>of</strong> principal concern. He stresses the conservation<br />
<strong>of</strong> water resources through more efficient application <strong>of</strong> irrigation water. He<br />
also discusses the conjunctive development <strong>of</strong> surface and ground waters and<br />
related data needs.<br />
Mr. Sikka brings up the question <strong>of</strong> the adequacy <strong>of</strong> basin-wide studies<br />
<strong>of</strong> surface waters in conjunction <strong>with</strong> ground-water aquifers that extend beyond<br />
the boundaries <strong>of</strong> river basins. This is a rather common circumstance, and<br />
it is apparent that the scope <strong>of</strong> surface water studies must be extended where<br />
ground water is a substantial element and where horizontal movement <strong>of</strong> ground<br />
waters across the river basin boundaries is significant. This emphasizes the<br />
importance <strong>of</strong> obtaining surface and ground-water data extending far beyond<br />
river basin boundaries in some studies.<br />
INFORMATION CONTENT OF DATA<br />
Many <strong>of</strong> the effects <strong>of</strong> data inadequacies discussed thus far in this<br />
general report are direct influences that are relatively easy to understand.<br />
There are some subtle effects that are little understood and yet can have<br />
major impact on project design.<br />
Weber, Kisiel and Duckstein in their paper, "Maximum Infonnpon<br />
Obtainable from inadequate <strong>Design</strong> Data: From Multivariate to Bayesian<br />
Methods," discuss some theoretical aspects <strong>of</strong> a subiect that is critical in<br />
the use <strong>of</strong> inadequate data and has considerable impact even where substantial<br />
data exists in many applications. They examine the effect <strong>of</strong> possible<br />
inapplicability <strong>of</strong> theoretical assumptions underlying techniques such as linear<br />
regression, discriminant functions, canonical correlation, principal component<br />
analysis, factor analysis and cluster analysis. In many cases, departure <strong>of</strong><br />
data from underlying assumptions such as linearity or normality will cause<br />
erroneous results. More markedly and more generally, confidence estimates<br />
will be in error.<br />
The authors discuss the complexity that is introduced into Bayesian<br />
analysis by uncertainties in the basic assumptions and cite some degree <strong>of</strong><br />
success in applications to discriminant analysis.
321<br />
Remarks relative to the interpretation <strong>of</strong> the results <strong>of</strong> principal<br />
component analysis are interesting. Attempts to identify the physical<br />
significance <strong>of</strong> the components or to use the components in subsequent<br />
regression analysis bring up serious questions. The general reporter feels<br />
also that such attempts would constitute a misapplication <strong>of</strong> the technique<br />
(as the authors may feel also).<br />
This paper does not attempt to answer the problems but simply identifies<br />
them. It should be <strong>of</strong> great value if it occasions attempts by the authors or<br />
others to find answers to these problems. It would be useful if the authors would<br />
comment on the effects that inapplicability <strong>of</strong> assumptions may have on the<br />
stability <strong>of</strong> maximum-likelihood solutions. The general reporter has witnessed<br />
cases where highly erratic results were obtained through use <strong>of</strong> maximum-likelihood<br />
parameters that were apparently sensitive to the form <strong>of</strong> a distribution function<br />
and where the data were not known for sure to fit the assumed distribution.<br />
GEOGRAPHIC CONS IDERATIONS<br />
None <strong>of</strong> the papers in this session discuss the differences in the<br />
various geographic regions that affect the adequacy <strong>of</strong> data. It is known that<br />
many rivers are very stable and that a relatively small amount <strong>of</strong> data can be<br />
adequate for fairly reliable hydrologic determinations. On the other hand,<br />
there is almost never sufficient data for evaluating the run<strong>of</strong>f potential <strong>of</strong><br />
some highly erratic streams where flows some years may be ln0 to 1000 times<br />
as great as flows in other years.<br />
Also, there is a difference in the nafure <strong>of</strong> data transfer potential in<br />
various geographic regions. In regions where genera! storms or general snow-<br />
melt floods predominate to produce high conelations among hydrologic events<br />
<strong>with</strong>in the region, data at a long-record site may be used to effectively extend<br />
data at a short-record site. In this manner, short records can be made to serve<br />
for long records to a large extent. It should be noted, however, that this permits<br />
estimates whose reliability is limited to that obtainable <strong>with</strong> the longest records<br />
<strong>of</strong> the region.<br />
On the other hand, where great hydrologic heterogeniety exists, such<br />
as where small-area storms predominate, information might be transferred if<br />
the rainfall-run<strong>of</strong>f process can be modeled accurately. In this case, there is<br />
a virtually u<strong>nl</strong>imited amount <strong>of</strong> information in a region that might be assembled<br />
to yield estimates far more reliable than those obtainable from the longest<br />
records. At present, the technology does not exist for effectively assembling<br />
such data, but the potential certai<strong>nl</strong>y is there.
322<br />
SUMMARY<br />
In summary, it is not at all obvious how data inadequacies can affect<br />
design <strong>with</strong>out making a detailed. study and <strong>with</strong>out a thorough understanding<br />
<strong>of</strong> the factors Involved. Errors due to data inadequacies can accidentally<br />
improve a design, but the expectation is that better data will produce better<br />
designs, as long as sound policies and technology are employed.<br />
Many important contributions are contained in the papers for this<br />
session, and the authors are to be congratulated on their efforts. They have<br />
studied the need for and value <strong>of</strong> basic data and the impacts <strong>of</strong> data deficiencies<br />
on techniques and on design adequacy, and have defined new problem areas<br />
where special considerations are required in the use <strong>of</strong> small data samples.
ABS TRACT<br />
DESIGN OF WATER RESOURCES PROJECT WITH INADEQUATE<br />
DATA IN INDIA - GENERAL Q PARTICULAR CASE STUDIES<br />
S.Banerji" E V.B. Lal* - INDIA<br />
India has rich experience in successful construction <strong>of</strong> water<br />
resources projects <strong>with</strong> inadequate data. While rainfall data <strong>of</strong><br />
considerable length are availaBle in or around the catchment, run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
observations are usually available for 10 years or less, Commo<strong>nl</strong>y<br />
some gauge site some distance away from the dam site may be available<br />
Data on soil moisture, infiltration, and evapotranspiration are<br />
almost non-existent,<br />
The paper, based on a study <strong>of</strong> several important reports rela-<br />
ting to many projects situated in different climatological, topo-<br />
graphical and geological regimes, describes the practices followed<br />
in: (i) transferring rainfall data from a hydrologically similar<br />
region to the reservoir catchment by short term correlation, Ciil<br />
establishing correspondence between rainfall and run<strong>of</strong>f by applying<br />
a regional empirical formula, or by first deriving a regression<br />
equation for rainfall vs, run<strong>of</strong>f for the small period for which simul-<br />
taneous records <strong>of</strong> both parameters are available and then applying<br />
it to longer rainfall records for getting the discharge series (iii)<br />
tranferring gauge discharge relationship <strong>of</strong> a distant site to the<br />
dam site to work out time distribution <strong>of</strong> inflows, and the peak flow.<br />
For the latter, a method evolved for estimating maximum flood in the<br />
Narmada and Mahanadi rivers, principally based on assessing the<br />
contribution due to different zones <strong>of</strong> catchment each extending to 1<br />
day's flow time, has been descrìbed for the Benefit <strong>of</strong> monsoon regions.<br />
RESUME<br />
Les Indes ont une grande expérience dans la réalisation d'amlna-<br />
gements des eaux h partir de données insuffisantes, L'observation<br />
directe des débits ne porte en général que sur des périodes de moins<br />
de 10 ans, tandis qu'on dispose souvent de données de précipitations<br />
sur de longues périodes. D'autre part, il est courant de disposer<br />
d'une échelle limnimétrique 3 quelque distance du sîte du barrage pro-<br />
jeté, alors que les données sur l'humidité du sol, 1iinfPltration et<br />
ì'êvaporation sont presque ìnexfstantes.<br />
L'étude présentée est basée sur plusieurs rapports importants<br />
relatifs à des projets situés dans des régions qui présentent des<br />
conditions variées en climatologie, topographie et geolog2e. Les<br />
auteurs décrivent les méthodes employdes pour (31 transférer les<br />
données de précipitations d'une région hydrologiquement analogue au<br />
bassin qui alimente le r&servol'r, Ci'il &tqblir uqe correspondance<br />
entre les precipitations et l'écoulement par l'application d'une formule<br />
empirique régionale ou d'une Iquatioy de r@gress.Con, calcul@es<br />
sur la période d'observation commane des pluzes et des débits et utilisées<br />
avec des données de prgcipitations de longue durée pour obtenir<br />
une extension des debits, (iii) déterminer la relation hauteur-débit<br />
au droit du barrage 1 partir d'une relation établie a une station siT<br />
tuée 3 quelque distance pour estimer la distrìbution des d&bìts et les<br />
pointes de crues, Les auteurs exposent a titre d'exemple une méthode<br />
utilisée pour évaluer la crue maximale des rivibes Narmada et Mahanadi;<br />
cette mlthode, intéressante pour les régimes de mousson, tient<br />
compte de la contribution des différentes parties du bassin, le<br />
découpage correspondant a un isochronisme journalier.<br />
~<br />
* Scientists, Secretariat <strong>of</strong> 1.H.D' National Committee<br />
I
324<br />
1.0 introduction<br />
India h a a rich experience in 'successful' construction <strong>of</strong> water msources<br />
projects <strong>with</strong> inadequate hydrologioal data. Since 1951, when tha fimt Five Year<br />
Plan commenced, 537 major and mriàium projeots, each having a reservoir etorage <strong>of</strong><br />
over 6167 hectare-mtree i.e. 50,000 aumfset, ham been taken up and about 300 have<br />
been completed (1). However, since most <strong>of</strong> the gauge ami discharge sites f a<br />
regular observation on Indien riveru have been eet up o<strong>nl</strong>y after independenoe in<br />
1947, run<strong>of</strong>f observatioas or even gauge-readings, if at all available at the sito<br />
<strong>of</strong> a proposed dam were <strong>of</strong> very short duration, sw, lesa than 10 gbm. 'phr redseeing<br />
factor in this situati= has been tknt for most aress <strong>of</strong> the oouutry long records<br />
<strong>of</strong> rainfall, <strong>of</strong> 50 years or more ere gen9ra;lI.y available. Aluso, ooemo<strong>nl</strong>J aoma gauge<br />
site would be evaileble on the ccgcerned river som distema away from tkie dai site.<br />
Data on soil moisture, infiltration end evapotranpipiratiai axe praotiedïy non-<br />
existent.<br />
1.1 hia mesent paper is based m e tatu* <strong>of</strong> neveral intportant reports (vide<br />
appendix 1) mlat- to meny projects <strong>of</strong> variona siaes rituated in different<br />
ûlbtOlOgiû& topmphioal a d @ûl~iC8l =gimes Of the Cmtrj. W pY.æOtiCeS<br />
described relake to the following thme oetegoriee <strong>of</strong> problem:<br />
(i) 'Jkarisferring rainfall date from an adjacent, lydrologieally nimilar<br />
regiai to tlie reservoir oatchnte<br />
(U) Eatciblisw oormepandeme between rainfall and run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
(iii)Tramaferring gaw discharga relatioriehip <strong>of</strong> a distant site to dam site<br />
Mœt <strong>of</strong> thee relate to estimation <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f vdrmies. Eltimation <strong>of</strong> p.nk<br />
flore has been discussed separately.<br />
2.0 Indien Pcaotice<br />
It meg be etated hem that 88 there is lege di.arsity not od7 in the<br />
2.1<br />
size and the region <strong>of</strong> lm&Aon but also in the nature <strong>of</strong> data available for<br />
differed projeote, lhm are no 8~tau&d8 or mallar8 Wd-8 to -rocmm<br />
problem <strong>of</strong> dafa maralty. Then, he8 ban no partioular Pmferenoe for either<br />
the Mit i@rograph or tb etatietiad Mqoenny distribution In &te- tìm<br />
'dosigm flod8, and, bpending upoe the gravity ni wzumxmnnoe <strong>of</strong> a likely failure<br />
<strong>of</strong> tb stmûtm, attsmpts hem ben meâe, wimromr m-88- ad poisiblev<br />
to arrive at the design flood by =me <strong>of</strong> both thse approdms and a for others<br />
<strong>of</strong> regid applloatian.<br />
1Lo 8 general guideline it h m been pmsuribed that inajar and odium groJects<br />
2.2<br />
should be deeigmd for Probable Msximtri Flood (m) "that wodd reriult from the
co&ination <strong>of</strong> critical msteorslsgicd and hYhOle@;iO f oonditians<br />
ca.sidend physi.~c~llg possible in the mgid"' Ln oases <strong>of</strong> SPJQ~ wojects<br />
<strong>with</strong> mery larga catchm;.nte whem applicaticm Of imit Wai.oS=Qh is bdVhabble<br />
a 1OOO-yeer flood esthte ia attempted by fnqwncy onalg.eie from a dkchprgs<br />
aeries at site cmtmted frem &ta <strong>of</strong> rainfall or other infomtim that Ippg b~<br />
amilable. In tb CPB~ <strong>of</strong> germanent ba-8<br />
tu<br />
less thpn 6167 ha. m the design is to be based on the Stanbra Pr@d**t<br />
Flood (SPF) that would msdt from Ithe mest severe combination <strong>of</strong> ~ t e ~ ~ l W i c ~<br />
and hg&ologic omditime, considersd reasonably characteristi0 ef liha =gim<br />
excluding extmmb ram oo?abineticars', er a 1oO-year flmd whia*r IS<br />
For smaller projects design flood ae;y be estimated by approximate end empirioel<br />
methods applicable locally. (2~3)-<br />
3.0 Transferring Rainfall Data from Adjacent Catchment<br />
In Cases where rainfall data for considerable periods are not<br />
available for the catchment upto the damsite two tendencies are discerni-<br />
ble. If it has been possible to construct a discharge series at the dam<br />
site by some technique from discharge data available elswhere no<br />
outstanding necessity has been felt for precîpitation data for estimating<br />
the flood peaks or periodic inflow volumes e.g. Tehri Dam. Otherwise<br />
attempts are made to work out precipitation figures for the catchment<br />
under consideration. If the number <strong>of</strong> raîngauge <strong>of</strong> raingauge station<br />
in the project catchment is samall, the statìons in the adjacent region<br />
considered hydrologically similar are utilised for constructing<br />
Thiessen's Polygon for working out weighted average figures <strong>of</strong> rainfall<br />
in different years <strong>with</strong>in the catchment e.g. Hasdeo (Bango) Project. It<br />
is also possible to have a few years'data at some specially set up sta-<br />
tions <strong>with</strong>in the catchment and to correlate them <strong>with</strong> the observations<br />
at some stations <strong>with</strong> longer records, lying outside the project catch-<br />
ment but still <strong>with</strong>in a hydrometeorologically similar region. The<br />
short-term correlation thus established is then applied to the longer<br />
records <strong>of</strong> outside stations and the series completed for the project<br />
catchment,<br />
4.0 Establieu C o r m s D o n m y 1 & run& f<br />
Bainfali reoords are @rerally available for projeet-catohwnte in<br />
the form <strong>of</strong> 24 hour ralnfail amounte obeemd at a fixed hour for moat staticne<br />
and 88 continuous recorde for selected etations <strong>with</strong> self-moording raingaugda.<br />
For estimating run<strong>of</strong>f data the follmlng methode am generally follmedt-<br />
a. Regional correlations, like Strange's Table; b.Khosla's F o d a<br />
C. Regression equations defining correlatia betweem short-term<br />
raipfall run<strong>of</strong>f data; à. whograph application.<br />
While PrrtboC a,b,o, yield estiiiatee <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f volume, hydrograph application<br />
ia good for eetiaieta <strong>of</strong> flood volume as well aa flood peaksl.<br />
4-1<br />
l&2&!2w C-OXUl a SWQE'S TABLE<br />
325<br />
It gime permntage <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f from 10~18ocn-1<br />
rainfalls for different<br />
lnàian catchmanta, which were rathbr subjeotively divided into three oatagories~<br />
'good' 'average' and 'bad'. Thus far a total monsoon rainfall <strong>of</strong> 1000 e a good<br />
catchment will yield 37.@ run<strong>of</strong>f, an average oatchnient, 2& ami a bad eatohRIent<br />
18.776. Inspite <strong>of</strong> the faat tìmt theee tablea am ncm very old and o m yield o<strong>nl</strong>y
326<br />
rough estimates, they ere <strong>of</strong>ten applied in the projects for assessrnt <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
volUries, e.g. Chambal Valley Development Scheme, where such calculations baw also<br />
been checked againat the observed data <strong>of</strong> a few years. €&o (3) has also used Strangego<br />
table while working out dischargea for Nagarajuriaegar aiid Srisailm projects.<br />
4.2 sx-&a's Fornu4<br />
Khoela (4) working 'on tb rational concept that run<strong>of</strong>f is the residual <strong>of</strong><br />
rainfall after deduction <strong>of</strong> evaporation and transpiratian loss' aesuiped that<br />
'temperature can be taken to be a complete maaure <strong>of</strong> all the factore which are<br />
responsible €or the loes <strong>of</strong> rainfall to run<strong>of</strong>f'. The formula hos no mgional lid-<br />
- ta5cms <strong>of</strong> applicability.<br />
1<br />
His empirical formula is Ra Pm -Lp wbm Rm, P, Lm am rssp8otiln3ly the<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f, rainfall and 'loss' figures for a given month in mu. Lm is taken as equal to<br />
5 'Ern, ilkre Tm is the man monthly tempereture in centigrades and is more than<br />
4.5"C. For Tm
327<br />
-<br />
aucounte for ab ut 9% <strong>of</strong> tlm anatm1 rainfall. Out <strong>of</strong> thee thee equstioriey the<br />
momoon rainfdl-monaoon nui<strong>of</strong>f equatian gave the highemt QOrIdaticeiS coefficient<br />
(0.869) od thia was u. ad to derive the amoal run<strong>of</strong>f from the ennuel raiafoll f m s .<br />
4.4 &hr-Dh Applicationr The tuchnique is lairly well haai. Later diseusaions<br />
will ahow how the design storm is selected and its tiiir, distribution obtaineà for<br />
applylag the mcipltetion figues to th unit hydrograph.<br />
5.0 -Disc- Belet ioliahip <strong>of</strong> a Distant site to the Barn Site<br />
We piok up tbme o- studies Vix the Eirakuà Dam, tts ThiLTi Deia a d the<br />
NagarJunaaagar to illustrate hou this is being done.<br />
5-1 In the Hhalcud Dam project (1947) the &am was prapomd to be looeted at a<br />
site near SamboLpur whr8 gauge recad8 existed sinee 1921, but there were no<br />
COrreaPpopdine gauge dieche@ curves. Ebwever, at Earaj, a site som 230 miles downstream<br />
froaSembalpur, gauge diaßhaqp recards existed sinue 1868. The gaugs madia@<br />
at Sambdpur were corzhlated <strong>with</strong> the gauge readiq at NaraJ, ding due allowance<br />
for the tinia. 1- and similar epuea, discbrge c m 8 were prepared for Sdelpur<br />
and checked 8gainst the dally discharge obrervatians o M d eince Jm, 1946.<br />
5-2 The Tebri Dam Project (1969j enwbws construction <strong>of</strong> a dam eor~~s thb river<br />
BhagFratM near Tehrii tha catohnmt arsa upto tb dpn eite ia 7511 8q.h.inaluding<br />
2328 8q.b <strong>of</strong> constantly snou bound axea. Daily rimr g&ugoa andwe8-U~ âiaaharge<br />
observatiais at tkm damaite .ere available o<strong>nl</strong>y fra May, 1964. This Catchment is<br />
a part <strong>of</strong> tb Ganga cstcharnt in which, at Bairele, near Haricbrar about 105 km.<br />
damst- Of 'pehri, deilr aid dia- dot8 Svdlabh €hail l9Olo The<br />
catcent<br />
up%o Raiwala t 23000 8q.b. inoludbg 8450 8q.h- is anow-<br />
bound.The Raiwala data have been utilised to compute run<strong>of</strong>f at Tehri<br />
in 10-day periods <strong>of</strong> the year. For this purpose the run<strong>of</strong>fs for<br />
different 10-day periods, in the period <strong>of</strong> actual observation <strong>of</strong><br />
discharges at Tehri, have been compared <strong>with</strong> the corresponding 10-day<br />
run<strong>of</strong>fs <strong>of</strong> Raiwala, assuming a one-day time lag for the flow to reach<br />
Raiwala from Tehri. The percentages <strong>of</strong> Tehri discharges to correspon-<br />
ding Raiwala discharges have been plotted against the relevant 10-day<br />
periods for the period <strong>of</strong> observation, 1964-66. These percentages vary<br />
for the same 10-day period from year to year due to variation in<br />
precipitation, temperature, humidity, vegetation, soil moisture etc.<br />
and for individual catchments <strong>of</strong> the tributaries <strong>of</strong> the river Ganga<br />
above Raiwala. The required factors have been worked out as below:<br />
AvoroRs <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f et Tem.<br />
ri<br />
Ave- <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f at Raiwtle<br />
~eing r vaime for &ifferet 10- periodi, the -<strong>of</strong>f figme at Beirala<br />
have ben canverted to f-a for Tehri for 30 (fra 1936 to 1966).<br />
5.2.1 'Ffiib Rairela Qata haw albo heen wed, ia ocajimotian <strong>with</strong> the ih&-tea<br />
rseard at TekrirL, for estimating the flood peds et 'psbri, &a- Baiwda 88 th<br />
etaticus, tfie peroeritege d tias e pcirticular noOb hae been equalla8 or<br />
emeebd le plotted agaInet the flood 021 a sed-log paper to giw e lozig-tsra data<br />
c m for tb inder itattian. Bor tb short-term for which data ara available both<br />
for %hi arrd Baida, rimilar o m s u. plot- far both th6 et&ticma. Tbs IOWterm<br />
c m for the project 8t&iOn (%-i) L then coiiltriiabd from the abow three<br />
oms, and ths flooda <strong>of</strong> various frequencies &PB obtabd from this OPM. It is,<br />
-
328<br />
hmemr, o<strong>nl</strong>y apIQ <strong>of</strong> m w w<br />
adopted in the projeot for eetimting tha flood peek.<br />
5.3 Ra0 (5,3) applies a different apprcmh to determim peak flooda at a section,<br />
when discharge data are available for a diffemnt site al- the river. W<br />
principle applied is simple: thedischage observed at a dametream aite ieequal to<br />
the discharge at an upstream site plue the dischar@ contributed by me interniedia*<br />
catcbnt mincis the oharial' trough' oapaieitg between the two sites. W 'trough'<br />
capacity oan be computed ideally <strong>with</strong> the help <strong>of</strong> croes eectime <strong>of</strong> the river at<br />
close internals, or otherwise in the absence <strong>of</strong> thie inforretian, by taking the<br />
average width <strong>of</strong> the river flow at one end, the difference in the depth <strong>of</strong> flw on<br />
the day <strong>of</strong> Peak flood and 24 hours before its occurmncc and the length <strong>of</strong> the river<br />
reach into woount. Th? inflow from ths intermediate catchnt q be worked out from<br />
the rainfall recorda using strange*s table. In this way the flood aeries at the<br />
upstream point ia Constructd for a number <strong>of</strong> years and subjected to frequsnoy<br />
analysis far estimeting tb design flood <strong>of</strong> a given recurrence interval.<br />
6.0 Esthau= <strong>of</strong> Ped Floa<br />
Nodly, peak floods are estimated by several mithoda before adopting a<br />
design flood. Such niethods range fra empirical f<strong>of</strong>iaulae directly giving peak flows<br />
from a oatchniant <strong>of</strong> given area to the elaborate etarm-trailspoeition and aiaximisation<br />
mthode. "hey m y broadly be clamifiad into tuo oategoriest<br />
(a) Non-mteorological =th& (b) Meteorologici1 methods<br />
In the non-mteorologieal oategory we may include tb following: Empirioal<br />
formulae, Enveloping Curves, Regional Flood Frequency analysis. In the meteorological<br />
category we inelude æ?thoQe that proceed frcm atom analysis. They msy or mqr not we<br />
unit hydrograph.<br />
6.1 .O Non-ktoorolouiad Cateaory<br />
6.1 .1 Enipiriaal F a<br />
(a) Ths noet popul formulae link the peak flood <strong>with</strong> the ama <strong>of</strong> the basin,<br />
like Diokm's, Q= CAY4 , for the Central and Northern India, the Byve's,<br />
g CABB, for the south India, the &lis Q- O0O ."or faa shaped catohmmb ki<br />
the Bombay aegica, wherm Q &vea the peak ra k- f disohaya in cusecs, A, tis ama<br />
in sq. miles and C is a coneteat differing fron loeation to looation. &oaueß Of<br />
their simplicity euch regional formulae<br />
appraaimatiar <strong>of</strong> the likely flood.<br />
still hi wide use for getting a fimt<br />
(b) Quite <strong>of</strong>ten, if high flood mark6 ara avrilable <strong>with</strong> raferrtaae to old trees<br />
or =oient atructplae, or OWE from the m ory <strong>of</strong> th looal inhabitruita, elow-ama<br />
method is employed as (UI aid to gueoo tkm ordar <strong>of</strong> t b dieoharm. No reliable idea<br />
c m obviously be bad <strong>of</strong> t b Seetion prevail* at fhs t- <strong>of</strong> flood fim, end thsm<br />
is diffiaulty in estabbliehin& ttie bed slope, which i8 teken OB equal to tkm SudaCe<br />
Slop establiaha0 from mrka at different points. Kutter's or uamih@' Coeffioient<br />
<strong>of</strong> rugosity ie eitbr (usumd, or dete-d by t b eubmtitution <strong>of</strong> ieaemd äata<br />
for a few flood8 In th oonoerned formula.<br />
%Sidea th faot tht eu& formulae are ueeful o<strong>nl</strong>y for limited regiolipl<br />
applioation, present ri& eoope far eubjectim fagtom in choosing the valm<br />
<strong>of</strong> tïæ constant. Also, it is not paisible to have any idea <strong>of</strong> tbie probable frequencg
329<br />
<strong>of</strong> the flood so estimated, ao that a partlulm value <strong>of</strong> C may give a flood which<br />
may be too high for designing a minor work, mey a culvert and too loa for &signing<br />
a spillwey.<br />
6.1.2 Envelope curvesi<br />
Working on tb assumption that basins <strong>of</strong> similar hgdmlogical characteristics<br />
should produce the sana mexlmum floods psr unit <strong>of</strong> catchment ama, Kanwar Saia and<br />
Karpov plotted data <strong>of</strong> mm~imum floods in Indian rimiers againet the drainage amss<br />
producing thoee floods on a log-log paper, and gave two envelope curves one enveloping<br />
data <strong>of</strong> South Indian Basins ond the other enveloping data far northern and oentral<br />
Indian basina. !be likely maximum flood from a catchment <strong>of</strong> given area is then<br />
expected to be indicated by these curves. Besides tìm basic inadequaoy that these<br />
curves relate flood potential o<strong>nl</strong>y <strong>with</strong> the drainage area, they do not provide for the<br />
occurrence <strong>of</strong> floods <strong>of</strong> higher magnitude than those on reoord.<br />
6.1.3 Resi onal Flood Freauew-<br />
Data <strong>of</strong> all the stations (points) in a statietioally homogeneoua region are<br />
combimd to produce a flood-frequenoy oume that is asswd to be valid for the entire<br />
region and can thye be applied to determine flood <strong>of</strong> a retuni period for an imgauged<br />
catchment In the region. The simplified procedure recommended by tìm Central <strong>Water</strong> &<br />
Power Commissian (2) is as follows:-<br />
All stations in the regim <strong>with</strong> flow recorde <strong>of</strong> 10 years or more are eelected<br />
and for each etation a frequency curva go- upto a 100-year flood Is constructedby<br />
the Gumbel's Ethod, <strong>with</strong> a confidence-band <strong>of</strong> 9% reliability. All points am tested<br />
for homogeneity as f ollors:<br />
The ratio <strong>of</strong> 10-year flood to man annual flood is determined for each point!<br />
this ratio awreged for all points is taiœn to give the mean 'lo-year ratio' for the<br />
ama. The mturn period corresponding to the ran 'lO-year ratio' time the maen<br />
annual flood Is detemlned from the frequency oume <strong>of</strong> each station and plotted<br />
against the number <strong>of</strong> years <strong>of</strong> record far that etatim oq a sed-log test graph. If<br />
tiæ pointa far ail tim etations lie between the 9% confidence limits, they are<br />
oonsidered homogeneous.<br />
The frequency curves <strong>of</strong> different stations in a homogsneoua region a m regarded<br />
as different estimates <strong>of</strong> the regimal curve, and tlaey are averaged as follows:<br />
For eaoh statim, flood ratioe (flood <strong>of</strong> a return period T over the niean<br />
mual flood) a m computed for a number <strong>of</strong> arbitrarily selected values <strong>of</strong> T. The rean<br />
<strong>of</strong> the flood ratioe for all stations for a particular period T is taken to represent<br />
the flood ratio for the r egid curve. The resulting mans for different vaìws <strong>of</strong> T<br />
are plotted a t b extreiiie value probability paper and the best fit line through them<br />
gives tïm mquized regional frequency curve.<br />
The application <strong>of</strong> thie curve to an wuged catchment rsquims M setimate <strong>of</strong><br />
the E= BIIILup1 flood for the wtchnmnt. This is dom from another e m which gives<br />
the plot <strong>of</strong> man umual floods at different statims agai-t tbe corrsepmding<br />
drainage amm. From this C- the value Of ttn? likely<br />
flood W d t<br />
the are <strong>of</strong> the naxg mgaugad oatobment can be mado<br />
6.200 &teorOlaasop1~
330<br />
records <strong>of</strong> all the precipitation stations in the region <strong>of</strong>, and around, the project<br />
catchment, which may rather subjectively be ree;ardeà 88 hyäromteorologicdly homogeneous,<br />
are studied to sglect storms <strong>of</strong> high rainfall covering an area more or<br />
less equal to or larger than the project oatchment. Far this purpose it mu b<br />
neceesary to carry out the umtaai Deptharea-Duration (DU> analysis <strong>of</strong> selected major<br />
st >rp~s 6nd from there maximum one-day, maximum two-deg, maximum three-day precipitati-<br />
are worked out. These aeleoted stom, are then transposed to the project<br />
oatcìnrent adjusting the precipitation axis dso to an orientation that will give the<br />
maximun run<strong>of</strong>f producing effect, if such directional change <strong>of</strong> storm axis is <strong>with</strong>in<br />
20° from the original axis. The storm is then maximised for the moisture content by<br />
applying a moisture-adJustiPent factor (maf) defimd as the ratio <strong>of</strong> the max. precipitable<br />
water over the catchmnt, W piex, and the precipitable water <strong>of</strong> the storm,<br />
P<br />
W This factor can be worlred out from consideration <strong>of</strong> the repremntatiw dew point<br />
op the storm, and the mucimm dew point over the catchment and then finding out the<br />
corresponding precipitable waters from the 'Pressure Vs Precipitable <strong>Water</strong>' diagram<br />
between the pressure range 1000 mb to 300 mb. Alternatively, in the absence <strong>of</strong><br />
sufficient data, a multiplying factor lying between 2C$ to 5s ia assumed .<br />
Havhg thue determined the design storm, the tina-distribution <strong>of</strong> the rainfall<br />
has to be obtained. From DAD analysis maximtua rainfall depths for durations <strong>of</strong> 6,12,<br />
18,24,36,48 etc. hours are obtained for each <strong>of</strong> the atorpis and expressed a8 percent<strong>of</strong><br />
the total rainfall, From a study <strong>of</strong> these pementages suitable distribution for<br />
the desiga storm is arrived at. Alternativelyif a limited number <strong>of</strong> self-moording<br />
rainges are available the ti- distributim cum be obtained from the continuous<br />
records. If no self-recerding gauges are available time distribution based on the<br />
experience <strong>of</strong> storma elsewhere in comparable area is adopted. Effective rainfall<br />
for difr'emnt time incremnte is estimated by any <strong>of</strong> tb usual rays, vis,(a) tha<br />
calculation <strong>of</strong> infiltration loes by finding the total surfme flws from actual<br />
flood-hydrographe and commng them <strong>with</strong> corresponding rainfall vol~aes e.g.<br />
Tenughat krojeat or (b) by simply assuming a run<strong>of</strong>f factor and applying it to the<br />
design stozm values, e.g. Fíasdeo (Bsngo) Project. These effective rainfall values<br />
are then arranged in the oritieal sequence which may be a mm or less sgmnietric<br />
arrangement <strong>of</strong> valiies <strong>with</strong> the greatest value in the middle, or my be determined<br />
by arranging the rainfall increaients against the ordinates <strong>of</strong> the design d t<br />
hydrograph ln such a way that the longest odinate faces tke largest effectiw<br />
rainfall and the next largest ordinate faces tb next largeet rainfall increment<br />
and so on, and then reversing this arraageeient to give tb oritical seqrrenœ. It is<br />
then applied to the design unit hydrograph, which can ba derivad by eriy <strong>of</strong> the<br />
wual nieans,actual obsemtiolls ar synthetic.<br />
6.2.1.1 A recent report (6) suggeete e new Psthod to qatimete t 3 design flood<br />
peak (50-yem recumme) from small oatch~mnta (25 Km to 500 KID 1. It takes into<br />
account selected besin characteristios (length and weighted .Ban BloP <strong>of</strong> the bmid 88 representative <strong>of</strong> the beeh response to tiie storm intaet and the atora P-PieterS<br />
like areal to poNt rainfall ratio. The procedure hae been evolved from an -lysis<br />
<strong>of</strong> short-term diaeharge data (5 to 10 yeare) for 60 drahmege basi- Of different<br />
slopes and sim soattered all over India. It Gen be briefly summed up a8 Pollairs:<br />
The weighiiù mm slope <strong>of</strong> the main stream, defined 88 given belw,<br />
worked out'<br />
L - 2 -<br />
C<br />
= ( Li/+ +L 21 SB 2 + .....<br />
1
331<br />
where Lc is the length <strong>of</strong> the mPin stream ln dles fra th@ maeuremnt site to a<br />
point on the main stream near the centre <strong>of</strong> grevity (CG) <strong>of</strong> the catchment area,<br />
and S1,S2 etc. are the slopes <strong>of</strong> the stream in the remhee <strong>of</strong> lengths L,,L2 etc.<br />
into which the length Lc is divided. Lengths axe mesured from the topoaheet,ln=l mile,<br />
From the value <strong>of</strong> s, the peak rate <strong>of</strong> flow Qt, in a tc-hour mit graph in cuuecs can<br />
beestimated by th following formiilaer-<br />
-<br />
(i) Qtc I 16000 A%2'3, if s 4 0.0028<br />
(ii) Qtc 320 A 6 , if s > 0.0028<br />
0-9<br />
t, is the duration <strong>of</strong> th rainfall excess given by 255/(Qtc/A)<br />
where A is the area <strong>of</strong> the catchment in sq. miles. For estimeting the design rainfall,<br />
a 'design storm by6tograph' table hae been pmgred giving point-rainfall volume (m)<br />
<strong>of</strong> 5O-gear return period for durations varying from 15 minutes to 24 hours, and<br />
these are then conmrted to arsal rainfall volume by applying ama1 to point rainfall<br />
ratios that have been worked out earlier by analysing data <strong>of</strong> 12 àense networks. To this<br />
areal rainfall a uniform loss rate is applied which is determimd from the empirical<br />
relatioioohips which have been deriwd for different types <strong>of</strong> soil. This rill .determine<br />
tb rainfall exoess in t, hours, and the Qtc value multiplied by this excess would<br />
give the design flood peak.<br />
6.2.2<br />
Bowever, these formulae need to be tested further by the field events.<br />
Meteoro l wcal cat BPON i <strong>with</strong>out usina t b U.G<br />
Banerji md Mantan (7,û) ham adopted a new approach for eStiIU8ting volume<br />
and peak <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f from data <strong>of</strong> atoras. They have studied flood in the Namada and<br />
the ~hanaäi oatohmants. Studring hydrographe <strong>of</strong> a number <strong>of</strong> floods (including ia floods), thy find out the ti- base <strong>of</strong> the hydrographs after the bese flow has been<br />
eeparated; it was 6 days in each <strong>of</strong> these oaseu. The basin is then subdivided into<br />
zone8 <strong>of</strong> 1-day travel time each, by using the following equation (9)<br />
1 .i5 0.38<br />
Tc = L /7.700 ii<br />
where Tc is the time <strong>of</strong> ooncentration, calculated for all the min tributarie8 to tirs<br />
points <strong>of</strong> outflow in hours, L is tìm length <strong>of</strong> the remoteat point in the zone to tb<br />
outlet point in feet ani II ia the diffemzuu in elevatia betwen the waterslmd outlet<br />
and the moet distant ridge h feet.<br />
It io assumed that the contribution to the flood-vol- from each ~ OPYI is<br />
depeudent on the average ama1 depth in ewh didelm, ths scdl moiet- cmdition<br />
and the retenticm orpmity; the proentsge contribution <strong>of</strong> flood vol- from elch<br />
zone is th- made independent <strong>of</strong> the %d catchment characteristioB. It has ben<br />
further aaaued that tb infiltration or retention deoleame from upatream to dom-<br />
8tnam zoma so that if K i8 the Storage facta (considered a8 the fmtiOn Of<br />
ecierage preci itatian &pa a p p a r ~ aa run<strong>of</strong>f ) in the zone nearest to the point<br />
<strong>of</strong> outflcnr, l! is tb starogb faotor fm the nth diviaion m y from the outflm point.
The total daily run<strong>of</strong>f *Fit at the outlet can then be sriPiPed up as<br />
Shew An i8 t h area and Pn-, ia t b average precipitation recorded in the nth<br />
division. The value <strong>of</strong> K is seleoted, by trial and error, from past records <strong>of</strong><br />
discharge for which simultaneous precipitation data are aleo available. A graph<br />
is then Plotted between values <strong>of</strong> K obtained for different perioda and corns-<br />
ponding antecedent catchnt rainfall.<br />
hydrograph, but utilises all the sante the es8ential underlying principle that the<br />
ordinates <strong>of</strong> two hydrographs for the 8amB basin and similar tine bese are proportional<br />
to their respective volumes <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f. The correspondence may be effected between<br />
tkie biggest storm on record <strong>of</strong> which o<strong>nl</strong>y rainfall data are available and any or<br />
all available hydrographs if the oharacteristios <strong>of</strong> stom are meteorologically<br />
similar to tke outflow point.<br />
Heferences<br />
For working out peak run<strong>of</strong>f rates (7) the method does not need a unit<br />
1. India, Irrigation and Power Projecte (Five Year Plans) 1970, Govwrzuœnt <strong>of</strong> India,<br />
&inistry <strong>of</strong> Irrigation and Power.<br />
2. Eetimation <strong>of</strong> <strong>Design</strong> nood, bcoimPsndeà Procedures 1972, Govt. Gf India,<br />
Central <strong>Water</strong> 4 Power Commission.<br />
3. bo, G.ii~. 1569 Modern Trenda in Hydrologic Computations, New Celhi<br />
Central <strong>Water</strong> and Pmer Commission.<br />
4. Khoela, Ad. 1949 Analysis and Appraisal <strong>of</strong> Data for t h Appraisal <strong>of</strong> water<br />
<strong>Resources</strong>. Central Board <strong>of</strong> Irrigatia Jour. pp 410-422.<br />
5. Ha0 G.A.H. 1967. Computation technique for Probable Maximum Flood Discharge<br />
at place in the river while gauge dischare data is available for anotber<br />
pïaoe <strong>with</strong> special referena to dam on Krishna river, India. Proc. Int. Sgmp.<br />
Floods and their Computation, Aug. 1967, Leningrad, u-s-sj.~*<br />
6. 1973 Flood Estimation Directorate, Central <strong>Water</strong> & Power Commission, New Delhi,<br />
&sign Office Report No. 1/1973.<br />
7. Bansrji, Sdhton, D.C. (1967). On estimating peak discharges correeponding<br />
to heaviest redorded atom in a oatchment. Ind. Jour. Wt. and Ceoph. V01.17<br />
Spl. N0.M 297-306.<br />
6. Banerji, S.Manton, D.C. (1967) Determination <strong>of</strong> the distribution<br />
<strong>of</strong> rainfall floods in large catchments using hydrometeorological<br />
data. Unesco Int. Symp. on Floods and their Computation, Lenin-<br />
grad.
d<br />
z n<br />
Q)<br />
8<br />
- - V A v<br />
333
n n<br />
4 4<br />
- n<br />
4 4<br />
rl<br />
I
ABSTRACT<br />
DATA REQUIREMENTS FOR THE OPTIMIZATION OF<br />
RESERVOIR DESIGN AND OPERATING RULE DETERMINATION<br />
James, Ivan C., Ir<br />
U.S. Geological Survey, Washington, D.C., USA<br />
Approaches to the design <strong>of</strong> multipurpose reservoirs have usually<br />
assumed a given set <strong>of</strong> operating rules. Conversely, studies <strong>of</strong> oper-<br />
ating rules have <strong>of</strong>ten taken reservoir size as fixed. In o<strong>nl</strong>y the<br />
former case have estimates <strong>of</strong> the optimal data requirements been made.<br />
This paper gives the estimates <strong>of</strong> and compares the optimal length <strong>of</strong><br />
data sequences for reservoir design where operating rules are fixed,<br />
for operating rule determination where reservoir design is fixed, and<br />
for the combined determination <strong>of</strong> operating rules and reservoir size<br />
for a multipurpose reservoir where the benefit is a piecewise-linear<br />
function <strong>of</strong> storage and release. A strategy is developed for the<br />
economically efficient design <strong>of</strong> the combined program <strong>of</strong> additional<br />
data collection and project deferment. The shape <strong>of</strong> the benefits<br />
foregone versus time function is such that project deferment is<br />
usually optimal o<strong>nl</strong>y where very short hydrologic records exist, and<br />
the effect <strong>of</strong> an uncertain project inception date is to increase the<br />
optimal-length <strong>of</strong> the data sequence.<br />
RESUMEN<br />
Métodos para el diseño de un embalse multipropósito usualmente<br />
han asumido un juego fijado de reglas de operación. Reciprocamente,<br />
los estudios sobre las reglas de operación frecuentemente han ini-<br />
ciado con un tamaño fijado de embalse. Estimaciones de los reque-<br />
rimientos Óptimos de datos se han hecho solamente en el caso ante-<br />
rior. Este artículo presenta las estimaciones del largo Óptimo de<br />
series de datos para el diseño de embalses con reglas fijadas de<br />
operación, para la determinacìón de reglas de operación cuando el<br />
embalse se fija, y para la determinación junta de reglas de operación<br />
y tamano para un embalse multipropósito en que los beneficios son una<br />
función contìnua por arcos de abastecimiento y descarga. Una estra-<br />
tegia se desarrolla para el diseño eficiente economicamente de un<br />
programa junto de aplazamiento del proyecto y recopilación de datos<br />
adicionales. La forma de la función de beneficios renunciados contra<br />
tiempo es tal que el aplazamiento del proyecto usualmente sea Óptimo<br />
cuando existen solamente registros hidrológicos muy cortos. El efec-<br />
to de una fecha incierta del comienzo del proyecto es crecer el largo<br />
Óptimo de la serie de datos.
336<br />
Introduction<br />
Fundamental to any development process is an information base<br />
for use in making planning, design, and operational decisions.<br />
This input has measurable costs and benefits as do the other inputs<br />
such as planning resources, capital, and site values for alternate<br />
uses. Economic efficiency requires that the balance between the<br />
inputs <strong>of</strong> a development process be such that the marginal returns<br />
on all inputs are equal. These marginal returns should be equal<br />
to their marginal costs where budget constraints are not active,<br />
or equal to their shadow costs when they are active. Viewed as<br />
another input, information may be conceptually handled as any<br />
other input. As Weiner [i] succinctly states:<br />
"Information is o<strong>nl</strong>y one <strong>of</strong> many development inputs;<br />
development, in turn, is but a transformation process<br />
adopted in order to reach certain objectives. Infor-<br />
mation is, thus, purely an instrumental objective and<br />
not a final purpose in itself, a basic fact we some-<br />
times tend to forget. "<br />
Information requirements for project development include such<br />
diverse factors as hydrology, future prices and extent <strong>of</strong> markets,<br />
climatology, topography, soil classification, demand level, geol-<br />
ogy, demography, and political trends. In reviewing this list <strong>of</strong><br />
information requirements, it can be seen that hydrologic data,<br />
particularly those <strong>of</strong> a stochastic nature such as streamflows<br />
have distinguishing characteristics that require a different treat-<br />
ment than other information inputs such as economic, demographic,<br />
political, and physiographic data. Climatic and hydrologic phe-<br />
nomena require rather long data sequences to develop suitable<br />
representations <strong>of</strong> their generating mechanisms. In contrast,<br />
programs for the collection <strong>of</strong> physiographic information such as<br />
topographic, soil, and geologic data can be deferred until shortly<br />
before these inputs are needed in the planning process. Models<br />
for projecting economic, demographic, and political trends into<br />
the project life horizon heavily weight the latest inputs, thus<br />
these data are usually collected o<strong>nl</strong>y shortly before their use.<br />
Planning the hydrologic data collection program requires the<br />
longest lead time and is usually accomplished when a high degree<br />
<strong>of</strong> uncertainty exists about other project information inputs.<br />
Efforts devoted to hydrologic network design cannot rely on highly<br />
formal tools in the absence <strong>of</strong> these other inputs. An alternative<br />
is the development <strong>of</strong> heuristic rules based on generalizations<br />
from results <strong>of</strong> pilot studies <strong>of</strong> optimal data record length for<br />
specific planning and design situations.<br />
The relationship between the timing <strong>of</strong> investments in data<br />
collection and the time stream <strong>of</strong> benefits gained through the use
337<br />
<strong>of</strong> these data in the design and o'peration <strong>of</strong> water developmecii<br />
projects is an important consideration when these time streams <strong>of</strong><br />
costs and benefits are discounted to a common point in time.<br />
Discounted marginal costs <strong>of</strong> the first years <strong>of</strong> stream gaging are<br />
much higher than the costs <strong>of</strong> gaging just before construction.<br />
<strong>Design</strong> and construction produce large sunk costs for which there<br />
is little recovery from incorrect decisions u<strong>nl</strong>ess the designs<br />
have incorporated a high degree <strong>of</strong> option flexibility such as<br />
through staged construction or other <strong>of</strong>ten costly methods <strong>of</strong> main-<br />
taining decision liquidity.<br />
The problem for the designer <strong>of</strong> a water development project<br />
is to maximize net project benefits subject to exogenously<br />
supplied constraints. The decision variables pertaining to the<br />
water supply design <strong>of</strong> a reservoir are usually the size <strong>of</strong> storage,<br />
release target, and operating rules for determining specific<br />
releases. Herein, the decision variables are divided into those<br />
physically immutable design values'such as sizing, and those<br />
operating rule variables which could conceivably be changed to<br />
reflect the results <strong>of</strong> new information.<br />
Whereas design sizing requires historical data, the use <strong>of</strong><br />
information for defining operating rules may be another matter.<br />
Additional data collected as normal requirements <strong>of</strong> project oper-<br />
ation may be used to update operating policies. On a theoretical<br />
basis, sequential decision theory provides a methodology for a<br />
flexible and continually updated operating policy. In practice,<br />
however, political and institutional constraints make changes in<br />
operating policy a difficult and expensive process.<br />
The determination <strong>of</strong> trade-<strong>of</strong>fs between capital and operating<br />
expenditures is a straightforward process when marginal benefits<br />
are known. Planning decisions, by their very nature are further<br />
removed from the time stream <strong>of</strong> benefits than are design decisions.<br />
Little is known about the mix <strong>of</strong> planning process input resources<br />
which achieve an optimal design from the viewpoint <strong>of</strong> econonic<br />
efficiency. A large effort cannot be expended to determine the<br />
optimal length <strong>of</strong> record at every possible site: rather, simple<br />
guidelines are needed that answer such questions as:<br />
a) How much streamflow data is optimal at a site €or the<br />
expected design decisions and economic parameters?<br />
b) What is the most efficient operation <strong>of</strong> a gaging<br />
station when there are uncertainties in decisions and<br />
parameters?<br />
c) I€ the gaging station has already.been operated longer<br />
than the optimal length, what factors would justify<br />
à3scontinuing or retaining the station?
338<br />
An approach to the determination <strong>of</strong> optimal lengths <strong>of</strong> gaging<br />
for the design sizing and operating rule determination <strong>of</strong> irriga-<br />
tion reservoirs is presented herein. This system was chosen for<br />
several reasons. In the western United States irrigation reser-<br />
voirs receive the majority <strong>of</strong> their inflow in the spring months<br />
from rainfall and snow-melt run<strong>of</strong>f. Usually o<strong>nl</strong>y small quantities<br />
<strong>of</strong> natural flow are available during the peak demand months <strong>of</strong><br />
July and August. The essence <strong>of</strong> such a system can be captured by<br />
a model in which inflows must be stored for satisfying demands in<br />
later seasons or future years. This permits the use <strong>of</strong> annual<br />
flows and operating rules which are nonseasonal in nature. Bene-<br />
fits from irrigation projects are also usually more easily measured<br />
than for other types <strong>of</strong> water supply.<br />
The value <strong>of</strong> data in a particular situation is <strong>of</strong>ten limited<br />
by constraints in the decision space. For example, if arable land<br />
were limited because <strong>of</strong> available streamflow, reservoir design<br />
would become sensitive to the irrigation requirements, not mea-<br />
sures <strong>of</strong> the available streamflow. Systems which have a high<br />
degree <strong>of</strong> operational flexibility may have low sensitivity to the<br />
availability <strong>of</strong> data since operating policies can be changed to<br />
consider streamflow data collected after project construction.<br />
The Value <strong>of</strong> Data for Reservoir <strong>Design</strong> and Operation<br />
The seminal work on the determination <strong>of</strong> optimal data lengths<br />
for project design is that <strong>of</strong> Dawdy, Kubik, and Close [2]. This<br />
work has been extended by considering the effect <strong>of</strong> discounting<br />
and benefits foregone by Moss [31, Herfindahl 141, and Tschannerl<br />
151.<br />
For the most part, these studies have dealt <strong>with</strong> the situation<br />
where operating rules were given and design siting was the primary<br />
decision variable. Hydrologic data also have value for the deter-<br />
mination <strong>of</strong> optimal operating rules.<br />
Operating Rule Determination<br />
The transform <strong>of</strong> state variables such as storage and inflow<br />
into release values is accomplished through operating rules.<br />
Perhaps the simplest and most <strong>of</strong>ten used operating rule for analyt-<br />
ical purposes is the Z rule, where the release R is defined by:<br />
Minimum { S + I, T 1 for S + I<br />
Vm<br />
Maximum { T, S + I - Vm for S + I > Vm<br />
where S is the carry-over storage, I is the inflow, T is the<br />
target, and Vm the maximum conservation storage. This rule would<br />
Se optimal if losses were linear <strong>with</strong> the deficits below the target<br />
value and no benefits or losses accrued from releases greater
339<br />
than the target value. Though these may be rather restrictive<br />
conditions, the Z. rule has proved to be a useful conceptual tool.<br />
In recognition <strong>of</strong> no<strong>nl</strong>inear loss functions and seasonal differ-<br />
ences in expected inflows, Maass et. al. -161 describe modifica-<br />
tions to the basic release rule called the pack rule and the<br />
hedging rule. Young 171 and Hall and Howells [8] used regression<br />
analysis on optimal deterministic releases derived from dynamic<br />
programming to define release rules. Russell 191 uses dynamic<br />
programming to determine the form <strong>of</strong> an optimal operating policy<br />
following a development similar to that <strong>of</strong> Gessford and Karlin 1101.<br />
Both investigators assumed serial independence in inflow sequen-<br />
ces. Gablinger and Loucks [ill, Loucks and Falkson 1121, and<br />
Loucks (131 consider design and operation <strong>of</strong> storage facilities<br />
where flows can be described by Markov transition processes.<br />
The Z rule for release determination is not optimal when<br />
marginal losses increase <strong>with</strong> the amount <strong>of</strong> the release deficit<br />
or where significant benefits accrue from competing reservoir<br />
purpo'ces such as recreation or water power. One method for devel-<br />
oping operating rules is to select from a set <strong>of</strong> operating rules<br />
which are defined as a function <strong>of</strong> state variables such as storage<br />
and target draft. Parameters values <strong>of</strong> these release rules can<br />
then be optimized in conjunction <strong>with</strong> reservoir design parameters.<br />
The selection <strong>of</strong> a particular functional form <strong>of</strong> the release rule<br />
will depend upon the objective function, and the nature <strong>of</strong> the<br />
assumed mechanism which generates the inflows. For other than<br />
extremely simple problems, this determination is non-analytic.<br />
where<br />
The operating rule chosen for this study was:<br />
R = Maximum'{O.O, Minimum (aA - ßB+T, Si+J)}<br />
A = Maximum (0.0, S+I-T'Vol<br />
B = Maximum-{O.O, T+V -S -I}<br />
O i<br />
si e: Minimum {V ; s +I)<br />
rn i-1<br />
and CL and ß are release rule parameters, R is the release to bene-<br />
ficial uses, and ifo is a minimum target conservation storage. In<br />
other words, the relea'se is the target modified by a fraction a<br />
<strong>of</strong> the end-<strong>of</strong>-season contents above minimum pool level Vo or by a<br />
fraction 6 <strong>of</strong> the end-<strong>of</strong>-season contents below minimum pool level.<br />
This release rule is more sensitive to project economics than the<br />
2 rule, yet adds o<strong>nl</strong>y the two parameters a and $ to the optirniza-<br />
tion problem.<br />
The previously defined parameters a, ß, T, and V , the active<br />
storage volume above Vo, were determined by the methoa <strong>of</strong> general
340<br />
function minimization described by Berman 1141, using a reservoir<br />
simulation model which returned the negative <strong>of</strong> discounted net<br />
project benefits for any set <strong>of</strong> the four parameters from the opti-<br />
mization routine.<br />
The selection <strong>of</strong> a project benefit function is not an easy<br />
task. The marginal economic response <strong>of</strong> crops to marginal water<br />
applications vary widely. For this analysis a linear benefit<br />
function was used <strong>with</strong> the following coefficients.<br />
C1 .O016 $/m3/ short term loss for end-<strong>of</strong>-season<br />
storage below V<br />
0<br />
C2 .O004 $/m3/ short term benefit for end-<strong>of</strong>-season<br />
c3 .o12 $/m3/<br />
storage above V<br />
O<br />
short term loss for releases below<br />
target<br />
C4 .O04<br />
3<br />
$/m<br />
short term benefit for releases above<br />
target<br />
C6 .O057 $/m3/yr long term benefit for target releases<br />
Assumed marginal capital cost3 for providing reservoir storage C<br />
5<br />
ranged from .O017 to .O04 $/m /yr. All annual benefits and<br />
costs were discounted at 6% to the starting point <strong>of</strong> project<br />
benefits.<br />
Analysis <strong>of</strong> Data Requirements for Irrigation <strong>Projects</strong><br />
Five gaging stations were selected which had been used in<br />
the design <strong>of</strong> existing irrigation project reservoirs. The his-<br />
torical data were extended <strong>with</strong> generated operational hydrology<br />
to a length <strong>of</strong> 200 years. The reservoirs were sized and operat-<br />
ing rules determined for all 100, 50, 33, 20, 15, and 10-year<br />
sequences <strong>of</strong> the 200-year sequence, and on 8 and 5-year segments.<br />
for some <strong>of</strong> the projects. For each set <strong>of</strong> determined parameters,<br />
the reservoir was simulated for the 200-year period and discounted<br />
values <strong>of</strong> the objective computed. These values were then averaged<br />
across all equal-length segments <strong>of</strong> record. Average objective<br />
function values were then plotted against segment length and a<br />
curve smoothed in as shown for an example in figure 1. To the<br />
values <strong>of</strong> this curve are added the present value <strong>of</strong> the cost <strong>of</strong><br />
gaging, and a total cost curve results. The optimal length <strong>of</strong><br />
record occurs at the minimum <strong>of</strong> the total cost curve.<br />
Operating rules were held constant at their optimal values,<br />
and the analysis repeated for reservoir sizing alone. Also,<br />
reservoir size was fixed and the analysis repeated for operating<br />
rules alone. For clarity, o<strong>nl</strong>y the objective function values
and not the total cost curves are shown in the published figure<br />
for these analyses.<br />
These latter analyses were done to attain comparability <strong>with</strong><br />
previous studies on the worth <strong>of</strong> data where operating rules were<br />
fixed and o<strong>nl</strong>y reservoir sizìng allowed to vary.<br />
Discussion <strong>of</strong> Results<br />
341<br />
The present value <strong>of</strong> the cost <strong>of</strong> a gaging station record<br />
which is assumed to cost $2000 per year <strong>of</strong> operation is given in<br />
table 1 assuming an interest rate <strong>of</strong> 6%. Thus, in a 50-year<br />
gaging record, the first 10 years has a marginal cost <strong>of</strong> $580,000-<br />
$310,000 = $270,000 as compared to the original $20,000 investment<br />
for that record. The effect <strong>of</strong> discounting the gaging costs is<br />
to make the marginal cost <strong>of</strong> gaging much higher than might ordi-<br />
narily be perceived.<br />
The results from these studies are tabulated in table 2.<br />
For the economic parameters used, several results are apparent.<br />
The optimal data length for both design sizing and operating-<br />
rule determination is considerably longer than the optimal data<br />
length for design sizing alone, but o<strong>nl</strong>y slightly longer than<br />
the optimal data length for operating rule determination. There<br />
is a strong correlation between optimal data length and size <strong>of</strong><br />
stream, as is seen in figure 2.<br />
If a gaging station is already in existence and has already<br />
achieved its planned "optimal" length <strong>of</strong> record but the project<br />
has not been yet built, then the decision problem must be viewed<br />
from a different economic viewpoint. For this, the present value<br />
<strong>of</strong> the marginal benefits <strong>of</strong> an additional year <strong>of</strong> record must<br />
equal or exceed the cost <strong>of</strong> that marginal year <strong>of</strong> gaging. The<br />
right-hand column <strong>of</strong> table 2 is the point on the marginal benefit<br />
curve that equals the marginal cost <strong>of</strong> gaging. For example, if<br />
the decision maker designing a reservoir on the Smoky Hill River<br />
near Arnold, Kansas was one year away from construction, then he<br />
should continue to gage if the total available record is less<br />
than 55 years, even though it may exceed the apriori optimal<br />
length <strong>of</strong> 30 years.<br />
In previous work by James, Bower, and Matalas í151, it has<br />
been suggested that the total variability <strong>of</strong> meeting a water<br />
quality target was more strongly influenced by economic and<br />
political uncertainties than hydrologic uncertainty. This was<br />
based upon a multivariate sensitivity analysis <strong>of</strong> output measures.<br />
Such an analysis is similar to measurement <strong>of</strong> the type A error,<br />
which is an apparent error in design caused by incorrect economic<br />
parameters evaluated at those incorrect parameters. The type B
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343<br />
error, or efficiency loss, is the pertinent measure to compare<br />
against efficiency losses from inadequate gaging records. The<br />
type B error is the loss measured <strong>with</strong> the true economic param-<br />
eters <strong>of</strong> a system whose desfgn was optimìzed <strong>with</strong> the incorrect<br />
parameters o<br />
The type A and type B errors resulting from 40% errors in<br />
each <strong>of</strong> the cost parameters used are shown in table 3.<br />
Table 3. Type A and type B errors resulting from 40% error<br />
in cost coefficients for a reservoir on the Smoky<br />
Hill River near Arnold, Kansas<br />
Cost Coefficient Type A error Type B error<br />
(% <strong>of</strong> net project benefits)<br />
c1 recreation 3.1 < .1<br />
c2 recreation < .1 < .1<br />
c3 short run deficit .6 < .1<br />
c4 short run release 22 2.5<br />
c5 res e rvoi r<br />
construction<br />
10 < .1<br />
C6 long run release 60 11<br />
For comparison, on this same project the efficiency loSS for<br />
incorrect record lengths <strong>of</strong> 5, 10, and 15 years is 0.4, 1.4, and<br />
3.7% resPectivelY. Project feasibility is usually quite sensitive<br />
to type A errors and to the interest rate used for discounting<br />
project costs and benefits to a common time name. Type A-and B<br />
errors were not estimated for errors in interest rate, however,<br />
on this project a change in interest rate from 6% to 5% would<br />
change the optimal record length from 30 to about 35 years.<br />
This analysis has taken the manager's viewpoint <strong>of</strong> a project<br />
gaging network, whose objectives are overall economic efficiency.<br />
Budget constraints are not active. The network manager seldom has<br />
precise information<br />
is then to minimize<br />
years in the future<br />
m<br />
C P(t)L(t--r) is a<br />
ta0<br />
the project will be<br />
on the date <strong>of</strong> project inception. His problem<br />
the losses by starting gaging at a point<br />
such that the expected loss<br />
minimum, where P(t) is the probability that<br />
started t years in the future, and L(t-T) is<br />
the total loss function as sho& in the example in figure 1.<br />
<strong>Water</strong> resources development projects also must consider other<br />
criteria than economic efficiency. Considerations <strong>of</strong> regional<br />
income distribution and the degree <strong>of</strong> risk aversion in the parties<br />
receiving the economic benefits will temper gaging network<br />
decisions.
344<br />
If the analysis presented herein is to be used to determine<br />
ghe optimal sìarting time for a gaging station at a previously<br />
yngaged site, some estimates <strong>of</strong> the flow characteristics will<br />
bave to be made. Estimates <strong>of</strong> flow characteristics prior to gag-<br />
ing can be made for sites in the Unfted States using regional<br />
gelationships presented in Thomas and Benson n61. Additional<br />
gaging information can then be incorporated into the prior ecti-<br />
wgtes using Bayesian analysis.<br />
cgnclusions<br />
Optimal record lengths for determining reservoir sizing and<br />
ekerating rule parameters can be determined by computing expected<br />
project benefits from designs resulting from varying lengths <strong>of</strong><br />
design data. Optimal record lengths for the combined process <strong>of</strong><br />
reservoir sizing and determining operating rule parameters are<br />
significantly longer than for reservoir sizing alone under a<br />
fixed optimal operating rule.<br />
The optimal length <strong>of</strong> record increases <strong>with</strong> size <strong>of</strong> stream,<br />
ganging from 7 to 47 years for the five str ams used in this study,<br />
9<br />
which range in discharge from .25 to 27.1 m /sec.<br />
Econcmic efficiency requires that the marginal worth <strong>of</strong> col-<br />
ìecting additional streamflow data be greater than the marginal<br />
costs when these two values are discounted to a common point in<br />
%ime. Hence the decision problem <strong>of</strong> discountinuing an existing<br />
gage is different than the decision problem for the optimal<br />
gtarting time for the gage because the discount factors applied<br />
gp the initial year are larger than those applied to the final<br />
year.<br />
References<br />
Wiener, Aaron, (1972). The role <strong>of</strong> water in development,<br />
New York, McGraw-Hill, Inc.<br />
Dawdy, D.R., Kubik, H.E., and Close, E.R. (1970). The value<br />
<strong>of</strong> streamflow data for project design - a pilot study,<br />
<strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Research, v. 6, no. 4, pp. 1045-1050.<br />
MOSS, M.E. (1970). Optimum operating procedure for a river<br />
gaging station established to provide data for design <strong>of</strong> a<br />
water supply project. <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Research, v. 6, no. 4,<br />
pp. 1051-1061.<br />
Herfindahl, Orris C., (1969). Natural resources information<br />
for economic development, Baltimore!, Johns Hopkins Press.<br />
Tschannerl, G., (1971). <strong>Design</strong>ing reservoirs <strong>with</strong> short<br />
streamflow recoräs, <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Research, v. 7, no. 4,<br />
pp. 827-833.
6<br />
7.<br />
8.<br />
9<br />
lu.<br />
1 .<br />
IL<br />
13<br />
14<br />
15.<br />
16.<br />
Maass, Arthur, et. al. (1962). The design <strong>of</strong> water resource<br />
sy~tems, Cambridge, Harvard University Press.<br />
345<br />
aung, G.K. , (1967). Findiiig reservoir 01 crating ruler. Jour.<br />
f the Hydrau1ic.s Div., Am Soc. <strong>of</strong> Cìvi I Enqr.. v. 93. no.<br />
HY6, pp. 297-<br />
Hall, Warren A., and Howell, David T., (1963 . The uptimiza-<br />
tion <strong>of</strong> single purpose reservoir design <strong>with</strong> the appii ition<br />
<strong>of</strong> dynamic programming to synthetic hydrology samples, Jour.<br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>Hydrology</strong>, v. 1, pp. 355-363.<br />
Russell, C. Bradley, (19121. An optimal policy for operating<br />
d multipurpose reservoir, Operations Research, v :O, no. 6,<br />
pp. 1181-1189.<br />
Gessford, John, and Karlin, Samuel, Optimal policy for hydro-<br />
el-ectric operdiicns, pp. 179-200 in Arrow, Kenneth, J.. Karlin,<br />
Samuel, and Scarf, Herbrrt (1958). Studies in the mathematical<br />
theory <strong>of</strong> inventory an..; productions, Stanford, Stanford Univer-<br />
sity Press.<br />
bablinger, Moshe, and Loucks, Daniel , (1970). Markov models<br />
for flow regulation, JOUI. <strong>of</strong> the Hydraulics Div., Am. SOC.<br />
Civil Engrs., v. 96, no. HY1, pp. 165-181,<br />
Loucks, D.P., and Falkson, L.M., (1970). A comparison <strong>of</strong> Some<br />
dynamic, linear and policy iteration methods for reservoir<br />
operation, <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Bulletin, v. 6, no. 3, pp..385-399.<br />
Loucks, D.P., (1970). Some comments on linear decision rules<br />
and chance constraints, <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Research, v. 6, no. 3,<br />
pp. 668-671.<br />
Berman, Gerald, (1969). Lattice approximations to the minima<br />
Jf functions <strong>of</strong> several variables, Jour. <strong>of</strong> the Assn. for<br />
omputing Machinery, v. 16, n,,. 2, pp. 286-294.<br />
James, I.C., 'II, Bower, B.B., and Matalas, N.C., (1969 ,<br />
Relative importance <strong>of</strong> variables in water resources planning,<br />
<strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Research, v. 5, no. 4, pp. 1165-1173.<br />
Thomas, D.C., and Benson M.A., (1970). Generalization Of<br />
streamflow characteristics from drainage basin characteristicsr<br />
1v.S. Geol. Survey <strong>Water</strong> Supply Paper 1975, 55 P.
U<br />
346
O 10 20 30 40 50<br />
OPTIMAL LENGTH OF RECORD<br />
347
ABSTRACT<br />
THE DESIGN OF WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT PROJECTS<br />
WITH INADEQUATE DATA<br />
George W. Reid<br />
Regents Pr<strong>of</strong>essor<br />
University <strong>of</strong> Oklahoma<br />
One <strong>of</strong> the increasingly important elements in the design <strong>of</strong><br />
water resource projects is, <strong>of</strong> course , the management <strong>of</strong> quality<br />
and a technology that was almost purely hydrological and hydraulic<br />
is now being expanded to include what might be classed as the<br />
environmental and edological impact areas and systems, So, it is no<br />
longer sufficient to understand the interrelationships, flows and<br />
transports, but to this must be added the impacts on ttbe lisJrng and<br />
no<strong>nl</strong>iving water, and peripherral environments; <strong>with</strong> a need to<br />
develop ecological models or more specifically, water quality models,<br />
Unfortunately, there is rarely adequate data to properly describe<br />
these interrelationships, The methodology used for hydrological<br />
studies involving inadequate data such as the transfer <strong>of</strong> okserved<br />
points to points <strong>of</strong> interest; short term interise studies; &,Y use <strong>of</strong><br />
simulation techniques, can and are being used in quality management<br />
modeling, Perhaps more basic is an understanding <strong>of</strong> data requirements,<br />
using the system approach, the sequence <strong>of</strong> events ar- il) problem<br />
formulation, (2) symbol1 modeling, (3) data collectlon, (4) analysis<br />
and (5) design. (See Figure 1) Frequently, the order is ,hanged,<br />
particularly the entire process will start <strong>with</strong> available data.<br />
The complexities, <strong>of</strong> course, arise due to the fa.t that the<br />
I rocesses associated <strong>with</strong> water quality management: hydraulic,<br />
hydrologi,al, chemical, biological and ecological -- are extremely<br />
and imperfectly understood. So, that is a complex reality, <strong>with</strong> a<br />
great many variables on which there is available veri poor measures<br />
and which themselves interrelate in ways very inadequately<br />
understood -- must be measured and appropriately related to be useful,<br />
Certai<strong>nl</strong>y, one recognizes the superiority <strong>of</strong> an expli-it quantifiable<br />
data and models over intuitive models and hurlChes. The<br />
alternatives to such a model, based on partial knowledge, is a mental<br />
model, based on the mixture <strong>of</strong> incomplete information and intuition<br />
similar to those controlling most political decisions. A mathematical<br />
mcdel deals <strong>with</strong> the same incomplete information available to an<br />
1 1 *uitive model, but through organization <strong>of</strong> information from many<br />
iifferent sources into a closed loop at last analyses is permitted<br />
and data needs studied,
350<br />
RESUMEN<br />
Uno de los elementos altamente importantes en el diseño de pro<br />
yectos de recursos de agua es, desde luego, el manejo de la calidad<br />
y tecnologia que fue casi puramente hidrolögica e hidráulica y está<br />
siendo ahora expandida para incluir lo que debe de ser clasificado -<br />
como áreas y sistemas de impacto ambientales y ecológicos. Asi que -<br />
ya no será suficiente entender las interrelaciones, flujos y trans--<br />
portes, pues a éstos deben de ser agregados los impactos en las ---<br />
aguas con y sin presencia de formas de vida y los ambientes perifi--<br />
cos; con la necesidad de desarrollar modelos ecológicos o más especl<br />
ficamente modelos de calidad de agua. Desafortunadamente, rara vez -<br />
existen datos adecuados para describir propiamente estas interrela--<br />
ciones. La metodología usada para estudios hidrológicos incluye in--<br />
formación inadecuada, tales como el cambio de puntos observados a -<br />
puntos de interés; estudios intensos de corto plazo; o uso de técni-<br />
cas de simulación, pueden y han sido usadas en modelos de manejo de<br />
calidad. En el modelado existe siempre una cierta incompatibilidad -<br />
entre puntos de sustancia y generalidad; requerimientos de informa--<br />
ciÓn y la representatibilidad del mundo real. El objetivo desde lue-<br />
go, es proveer por medio de una abstracción idealizada un comporta--<br />
miento aproximado el cual es siempre un compromiso entre simplicidad<br />
y realidad. En años recientes una gran cantidad de modelos han sido<br />
desarrollados, pero, desafortunadamente parece haber un alto grado -<br />
de polarización. En un extremo, hay un elegantisimo y s<strong>of</strong>isticado mo<br />
delo basado en técnicas econométricas requiriendo un alto grado de -<br />
especificación de información, que en la realidad no existe, Por --<br />
otro lado del espectro, los senarios dependen casi muy poco de info;<br />
mación, más sobre conceptos. La necesidad básica es para modelos en<br />
aìgfin lugar entre los dos extremos que están construidos usando in--<br />
formación existente y que puedan ser responsables a las necesidades<br />
de las agencias de acción, Es en esta realidad en la cual el autor -<br />
ha desarrollado una serie de modelos de calidad de agua. Los proyec-<br />
tos siendo modelados son generalmente de una naturaleza tal que la -<br />
realización final ocurrirá bastante después de la partida de los di-<br />
señadores y por tal los procedimientos de evaluación directa son im-<br />
posibles, necesitándose de alguna forma de evaluación o integridad -<br />
interna. El problema es que usando cuanta información esté disponi--<br />
ble, para 50 a 100 años a la fecha y haciéndolo de manera que no sea<br />
tan elegante que se convierta en un modelo dogmático. El autor ha -<br />
desarrollado una serie de modelos respondiendo al desafio. La esen--<br />
cia de la metodologia es reconocer la complejidad de un problema y -<br />
trazar una combinación de técnicas de investigación de operaciones,<br />
técnicas deterministicas, asi como m’etodos empîricos, fenomológicos<br />
y analiticos. Modelos para sistemas de rios responden a la polución<br />
organizada de cuatro maneras: bioquimica, biodegradable, sedimentos<br />
nutricionales, incluyendo modelos adicionales para flujos urbanos y<br />
poluciiin dispersa, así como flujos rurales. Todos los modelos usaron<br />
información existente y ésto los sitG‘a para modelado pronosticable -<br />
de nivei de las cuencas siendo computarizados y sistematizados y es-<br />
tán siendo usados en problemas específicos en el Suroeste de los Es-<br />
tados Unidos.
Problem Formulation: To arrive at a water resource project design, the number<br />
<strong>of</strong> variables is enormous, and they are mostly no<strong>nl</strong>inear. The structure <strong>of</strong><br />
the system is more hierarchical than functional, and many <strong>of</strong> the parameters<br />
and variables are unquantified at present, certai<strong>nl</strong>y those associated <strong>with</strong><br />
ecology. Nonetheless, to some degree, a merging <strong>of</strong> disciplines and the<br />
increased use <strong>of</strong> the system approach has been taking place in the study o€<br />
urban systems, and it is not just a matter <strong>of</strong> collecting data and figuring<br />
out what one has.<br />
Lf one looks at the type <strong>of</strong> models being postulated €or the design <strong>of</strong><br />
water quality systems today, it will be seen (Figure 2) that they fall<br />
<strong>with</strong>in a spectrum ranging from erudite mathematical models at one end <strong>of</strong><br />
the spectrum to scenarios at the other. In the first case, the mathe-<br />
matical models may be rigorously developed in a mathematical sense, but<br />
are all too <strong>of</strong>ten <strong>of</strong> little use in describing a real complex system in<br />
inadequate data. On the other hand, the scenario model - little data,<br />
numerous ideas --may accurately depict the significant elements <strong>of</strong> the<br />
real system, but it is <strong>of</strong> little use to the engineer-planner because he<br />
cannot manipulate it. or quantify it.<br />
The target one should try to hit is a reasonable and useable balance<br />
hetween the poles <strong>of</strong> intuition and selecting hard data. One would like<br />
to be able to use the mathematical rigor <strong>of</strong> the physical scientist and.<br />
at the same time, give equal weight to the heuristic insight <strong>of</strong> the social<br />
scientist.<br />
The result would be a useable model for a system design. So,<br />
perhaps, or certai<strong>nl</strong>y, for planning purposes, one is dealing <strong>with</strong> the lowest<br />
level <strong>of</strong> quantification that allows good estimates and the lowest level <strong>of</strong><br />
complexity which gives a reasonable picture <strong>of</strong> the real world system <strong>with</strong><br />
the lope <strong>of</strong> expounding in both directions.<br />
The dpplication <strong>of</strong> mathematical modeling techniques to water quality<br />
management can significantly aid the decisionaakers to arrive at better<br />
decisions. Thus, modeling provides relevant facts and alternatives, the<br />
decision-maker chooses the strategy. Operational modele are still prim-<br />
itive, primarily becaiise <strong>of</strong> the probilistic or random nature <strong>of</strong> the<br />
physical processes involved in waste diffusion. One is sometimes inclined<br />
to be skeptical <strong>of</strong> the value <strong>of</strong> increasing model sophistication which<br />
<strong>of</strong>ten seems to have progressed much further than our understanding <strong>of</strong> the<br />
rmrnplex real world situation; all models currently proposed in the literature<br />
have enormous data requirements which far exceed those data usually available,<br />
and which, for the most part, must be derived from actual measurement.<br />
Many parameters in the more sophisticated models are simply not known in<br />
actual situations.<br />
The water quality management design problem require:<br />
1. The cause and effect relationship between pollution from any<br />
source and the present deteriorated quality <strong>of</strong> water in the estuary.<br />
2. Forecasting variation <strong>of</strong> water quality due to the natural and<br />
man-made causes.<br />
3. Methods <strong>of</strong> optimal management, including treatment and flow<br />
regulation to control the quality in the estuary for muaicipal, industrial,<br />
agricultural, fisheries, recreation and wild life propagation.<br />
4. Chemical, biological, hydrological, hydraulic, at the same the,<br />
same place, and same accuracy.<br />
3 51
352<br />
Models In modeling there is always a certain incompatibility and representativeness<br />
<strong>of</strong> the real world. The aim, <strong>of</strong> course, is to provide through<br />
an idealized abstraction an approximate behavior <strong>of</strong> the system which always<br />
is a compromise between simplicity and reality. <strong>Water</strong> quality models can be<br />
used to simulate, describe and predict, and programming leading to optimization<br />
<strong>of</strong> design. Programing which leads to policy requires an explicit<br />
set <strong>of</strong> objectives, or an objective function to maximize benefits or minimize<br />
costs. Simulation does not require explicit results. So, simulations are<br />
misunderstood, if one expects to use the numerical projections and values.<br />
Using numbers is wrong if it leaves the impression that design projections<br />
are in any way predictions <strong>of</strong> the future. It is helpful, E as a prediction<br />
but to get one to realize how short-sighted -- how present-oriented - images<br />
<strong>of</strong> the future ordinarily are, but extrapolltion <strong>of</strong> present trends is a time-<br />
honored way <strong>of</strong> looking into the future.<br />
Most people intuitively and<br />
correctly reject extrapolations -- the point is that it provides indications<br />
<strong>of</strong> the system's behavioral tendencies and as an analysis <strong>of</strong> current trends,<br />
<strong>of</strong> their influence on-each other, and <strong>of</strong> their possible outcomes.<br />
Models may be classified usefully by areal extent into national, regional<br />
and local . At the highest, or national level, data is necessary for broad<br />
planning purposes, such as to determine an overall level <strong>of</strong> water pollution,<br />
to determine the total investment necessary for pollution abatement, to<br />
determine national policies and to project the problems into the future.<br />
At the second highest level, the regional level, all <strong>of</strong> the above information<br />
is necessary, plus the particular information needs for the region. The<br />
third, local level, consists usually <strong>of</strong> checking the operation <strong>of</strong> waste<br />
treatment plants to insure compliance <strong>with</strong> regulations and statutes.<br />
Thus,<br />
due to the different requirements and objectives, a data program which may<br />
be optimal at one level, is usually far from optimal at some other level.<br />
U<strong>nl</strong>ess a clear objective has been set, there is no guarantee that all<br />
critical bits and bytes <strong>of</strong> information are collected, and that the gathering<br />
<strong>of</strong> useless data is minimized. Similar calssification classification can be<br />
made <strong>with</strong> relation to time.<br />
Hypothetical attempts to describe the intricate relationships between<br />
nutrients, phytoplankton, zooplankton, fish, detritus, bacteria and maninduced<br />
waste loads. There has resulted a great variety <strong>of</strong> models. One <strong>of</strong><br />
the first developed, classical Streeter-Phelps equation, describes adequately<br />
the deoxygenation and reoxygenation in the river. The familiar form <strong>of</strong> the<br />
oxygen sag equation is:<br />
-<br />
Do -<br />
-<br />
where: D oxygen dificit at time t<br />
-<br />
oxygen deficit at time zero<br />
BOD at time zero<br />
Lo<br />
t = time (distance) in days<br />
deoxygenation coefficient<br />
kl =<br />
k2 = reoxygenation coefficient<br />
This equation has been expanded to provide for evection and diffusion; algae<br />
growth, beuthal deposits, etc., into, inreality, impossible data requirements.<br />
The basic need is for models somewhere between two poles that are built using<br />
existing data and as such can be responsive to the needs <strong>of</strong> the action agencies.<br />
Tt is in this realm in which the author has developed a series <strong>of</strong> water quality<br />
models. The projects being modeled generally are <strong>of</strong> such a nature that the<br />
ultimate realization will occur long after the departure <strong>of</strong> the designers, and<br />
as such direct validation procedures are impossible, necessitating some form
<strong>of</strong> internal validation or internal integrity. The problem is one <strong>of</strong> using<br />
what information is available for a 50-100 year future, and doing it in<br />
such a fashion that it is not so elegant that it becomes a classroom make-<br />
believe world, The essential thread in the author's methodology is that <strong>of</strong><br />
recognizing the complexity <strong>of</strong> a problem and drawing on a combination <strong>of</strong> OR<br />
techniques, deterministic techniques, as well as imperical, phenomological,<br />
and analytical methods. River system models respond to organized pollution<br />
L,I modes.<br />
There are suggested six categories <strong>of</strong> stream responses: biodegradable,<br />
nutritional, bacterial, solids, persistant <strong>of</strong> slowly degradable chemicals<br />
and thermai. The response <strong>of</strong> a given stream to these categories can be<br />
formulated; or the reverse. given an instream criteria (RQS), allowable<br />
effluent quality can be calculated. The specific criteria now can be<br />
grouped under response headings; for nutritional, one might select N, P,<br />
NIP, or AGP, etc. If primary treatment is established as a lower con-<br />
straint on the effluent, the solids criteria can be deleted; and further,<br />
if a public health constraint on toxic and bacterial levels can be exercised,<br />
fosir rather than six responses can now be used leaving a four-by-four matrix<br />
'o be examined.<br />
TABLE I<br />
Municipal Industrial Agricultural Recreational<br />
Biodegradable<br />
Nutritional<br />
Controlled by D. O. levels<br />
Controlled by N and P levels<br />
Thermal Controlled by Temperature increases<br />
Persistent<br />
Chemical Controlled by Salt, CCE's or ABS, etc.<br />
353<br />
So, a response/use matrix, changing <strong>with</strong> time will set goals; based on a<br />
matrix such as the one in Table I "d alternative socio-operated projections.<br />
A linking technical basin model can be built and operated to provide the optimal<br />
use <strong>of</strong> water resources, and <strong>of</strong> necessary treatments; or in pianning for<br />
ruture population increases and the concomitant increased use <strong>of</strong> water, it<br />
is possible to build mathematical models depicting the optimum treatments and<br />
stream flows necessary to meet ths RQS. The one-to-one input-output relationships<br />
f-r he four c-tegorius vf waste discharges follows <strong>with</strong> the Low Flow<br />
Augmentation FA), associated <strong>with</strong> each treatment level (mi) , will be QL,<br />
QN, Qp and Q,. This is a terminal flow in MO. T'Li is a fraction where i<br />
refers to BOD, N and P.<br />
BIODEGRADABLE MODEL (L)<br />
Y PE or P A (P)<br />
Q, y+ (i-Y) CS - RQsDO<br />
(i) where:<br />
Y = Fraction <strong>of</strong> total population in SMA's<br />
E = Efficiency term, Point LoadIUniform Load<br />
PE = Population Equivalent Ln millions<br />
P = Percentage discharge to river, expressed
- as a fraction, Decision<br />
Variable (1-TL)<br />
Cs = DO saturation level 6 given temperature<br />
A = 942,900 relates to stream characterk2<br />
4 * istics<br />
where n is essentially the number <strong>of</strong> reoxygenized volumes, Ir the reaeration<br />
2<br />
constant, L the reach, V the velocity -- these valués will change as the<br />
stream Ltself is subject to management.<br />
ACCELERATED RITROPHICATION MODEL<br />
Z'P (1-%-1.44 (1-5) (TLL3250) (3)<br />
Qp = 2-P (1-TLp) - .27 (1-5) (TLL 1080)<br />
F, ROS<br />
THERMAI. MODEL (T)<br />
Qr =<br />
ATw - C<br />
AT +C<br />
Q<br />
AQ<br />
= Thermal Dilution Required, MGD<br />
where:<br />
Qp or QN = Nutritional Dilution Required, MGD<br />
(4)<br />
Z = Relative portion impounded and<br />
effected by RQS, level<br />
- P = Population, millions<br />
T$ or %<br />
-<br />
Phosphorus or Nitrogen removal level<br />
expressed as a decimal<br />
F or Fp BOD/, Ratio divided by optimum<br />
N<br />
combining ratio<br />
RN = BOD removal level expressed as<br />
a decimal<br />
RQS, or RQS, = Acceptable level, RQS determined<br />
by RQSAGp<br />
A Lw - Allowable temperature difference between added flow and RQSt (t-RQSt)<br />
A TQ =<br />
-<br />
Allowable temperature change (RQST - To)<br />
( Ratio <strong>of</strong> K/Vx when K Geometric mean for Bowmen's ratio and V =
subsidance velocity<br />
AQ = Waste Flow, MGD<br />
CONSERVED OR PERSISTENT SHEMICAL MODEL (C)<br />
These models, though’cast in terms <strong>of</strong> dilution requirements, can be<br />
altered, given a diluted level to provide permissible loadings. The<br />
models (2) thru (6) are based on organized (sewered) pollution. Models<br />
for storm drainings or dispersed pollution have also developed such as:<br />
DISPERSED POLLUTION MODEI. (D)<br />
Y2 = 4.8 + 0.0827X2 + 0.489X8 (7)<br />
where Y is BOD<br />
3<br />
Y = 2.36 - 0.188 1nX + .310 Inxl0<br />
5<br />
where Y is ON and Y6 is PO, in<br />
5<br />
Y6 = 2.90 + .OOOOSX1 - .OOOlX, - .0137X8 - .741Xll<br />
and Xi = population<br />
X2 =. population density<br />
X = number <strong>of</strong> households<br />
3<br />
X8 = comercial establishments<br />
Xl0 = streets<br />
Xll = environmental index<br />
Models (2-9) can be used to relate waste inputs to stream responses under<br />
varying municipal stream characteristics and against varying goals (RQS).<br />
Many technical models are available to project flows (Q), and other stream<br />
characteristics it2, L, V, et.. but a final model is needed for evaluation <strong>of</strong><br />
the effects <strong>of</strong> the rural upstream watershed programa on downstream run<strong>of</strong>f to<br />
complete the set. Such a model was developed for the Congress in 1969. ls2<br />
For details <strong>of</strong> model. development see, THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER, Wollman and<br />
Bonem, The John Hopkins Press, Baltimore & London, 1971, Appendix C., p. 203.<br />
This was a special consultative report to the Secretary <strong>of</strong> the Interior,<br />
October, 1967.<br />
355
356<br />
UPSTREAM USE MODEL (U)<br />
Y=-16+XX<br />
1 3 - u7x2<br />
Where:<br />
Y =i percentage <strong>of</strong> nonna1 run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
X1 -i percentage <strong>of</strong> normal precipitation<br />
X2 * percentage <strong>of</strong> watersheds controlled by hydraulic structures<br />
Xj = annual above one inch precipitation<br />
In these equation, the simple Phelps equation (1) has been reduced to:<br />
n<br />
Expanding this to<br />
dL = % dO = f dO<br />
ao E 2 E a20<br />
-iP<br />
- kdL - kn L" + ka (Cs -C) -<br />
three dimension, (x, y, z,) would require:<br />
at - xa: ++<br />
EZa2 o<br />
i- -<br />
- kic , etc.<br />
ax ax<br />
(10)<br />
(11)<br />
That is to say, the load equals the capacity. Distribution factors are<br />
added, load is put in terms <strong>of</strong> people, PE's, etc. This is useable. On the<br />
other hand and by way <strong>of</strong> contrast, O'Connor uses a one dimensional, differentia1<br />
equation, first involving:<br />
(13)<br />
Also the evaluation <strong>of</strong> E's, U, Ki, etc. in terms <strong>of</strong> velocity, solar energy,<br />
depth, turbidity, etc. 3<br />
The effectivehess <strong>of</strong> models is, <strong>of</strong> course, acceptance. Actually, very few<br />
models have been used. Limitations <strong>of</strong> applying them to "real" systems are<br />
rooted in many factors, most related to data inadequacies; the acquisition<br />
<strong>of</strong> proper data, adjustment <strong>of</strong> non-homogenity, or inconsistency, to MIU~ a<br />
few.<br />
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND WATER QUALITY, Thoman, Environmental Science Service,<br />
New York, 1972.
Every model, or system, is always embedded in a larger system in space<br />
or time, so one is limited to selection <strong>of</strong> a free body cut and exogenously<br />
determined parameters. Finally, serious factors, mostlv associated <strong>with</strong><br />
social values cannot, at present, be quantified.<br />
An efficient use <strong>of</strong> models thus, argues for different models to answer<br />
different question. For example, one for sediments, one for social costs,<br />
etc. The systems process is iterative and continues while the models are<br />
refined and until satisfactory results are obtained.<br />
The flow <strong>of</strong> information for all the mested models eventually leads to the<br />
decision process. Forward and feedback information flows take place between<br />
models until the alternative selection and information developed is accepted<br />
for decision-making.<br />
As illustrated, there is no attempt to "hang" all<br />
models together. More important, different levels <strong>of</strong> data, can be used in<br />
each mode, providing homogenity in each model.<br />
DATA<br />
The data must support the models. Some <strong>of</strong> the questions for which answers<br />
are needed are, goals, include,:<br />
1. What significant parameters <strong>of</strong> water quality should be measured,<br />
for an alert system, for treatment plant control, for a quality forecasting<br />
system, for a river management system?<br />
2. What should be the periodicity or time interval in collecting<br />
specific data?<br />
3. What are the cross correlations <strong>of</strong> these parameters?<br />
4. Are there any synergisLic relationships between the parameters?<br />
5. What is being accomplished to develop instrumentation that can<br />
gage quantitatively those essential parameters, such as BOD, that are not<br />
being measured automatically at the present time?<br />
So, there are all sorts <strong>of</strong> data, much <strong>of</strong> it redundant. One needs a model<br />
to discover needs, costs, etc. The process is shown graphically in<br />
Figure 3.<br />
Data has a cost, collection and deferral <strong>of</strong> decisions.<br />
The quantity <strong>of</strong> information collected should be increased so long as the<br />
present value <strong>of</strong> the investment opportunity (or cost savings if this is the<br />
use to which the information is put) is increased by more than the cost <strong>of</strong><br />
the information.<br />
The expected value <strong>of</strong> a decision will be low <strong>with</strong> little data available, but<br />
will rise <strong>with</strong> more data available. With little data available. the solution<br />
<strong>of</strong>ten would be overstated (resulting in unused capacity) or understated<br />
(resulting in lost opportunity), thus reducing the expected present value <strong>of</strong><br />
tht opportunity. For small enough quantities <strong>of</strong> data, the expected value<br />
will be negative.<br />
The conclusion thatthe decision take place when the cost <strong>of</strong> getting one more vear<br />
<strong>of</strong> information is equal to the resulting increase in expected present value.<br />
The cost <strong>of</strong> getting one more year <strong>of</strong> data is made up <strong>of</strong> two elements, the
outlay during the during the year to get the data, k, and interest on the<br />
expected present value <strong>of</strong> the opportunity one would experience if a year <strong>of</strong><br />
waiting is not included. That is, if V(t) is the basic function, one should<br />
not wait until its rate <strong>of</strong> increase, V’(t), is equal to [rV(t) + LI, where<br />
r is the rate <strong>of</strong> discount ( the rate <strong>of</strong> return on investment).<br />
Several conclusions are evident. First, it never will pay to wait for<br />
”complete” information. Second, an extremely important element <strong>of</strong> the<br />
problem is the cost coming from postponement <strong>of</strong> the stream <strong>of</strong> net revenues<br />
from the decision. This factor means it does not pay to accumulate data<br />
until the increment in expected value is equal to the annual cost <strong>of</strong> the<br />
data.<br />
Experience in the United States has resulted in the common utilization <strong>of</strong><br />
o<strong>nl</strong>y eight water quality parameters that are thought to satisfy the re-<br />
quirements <strong>of</strong> reliability, accuracy, and low maintenance. These parameters<br />
are dissolved oxygen, pH, turbidity, conductivity, temperature, OñP, solar<br />
radiation intensity and chlorides. Time sequence is important. Parameters<br />
needed today may not be the correct ones torrorrow.<br />
TABLE II<br />
---<br />
TIME SCHEDULE FOR WATER POLLUTION ABATEMENT<br />
Secondaw BOD N&P TDS Thermal<br />
- Time<br />
Treatment Eff Eff Eff - Ef f<br />
1960<br />
1970<br />
X<br />
X X<br />
1980<br />
1990<br />
X<br />
X<br />
X<br />
X<br />
X<br />
X X<br />
2000 X X X X X<br />
Criteria Fish KJlls Eutrophi- Reuse Recycle<br />
<strong>Water</strong> Treatueur. cation<br />
Problems<br />
Figure 4 suggest a water pollution abatement time scale; that is, the<br />
standard will be upgraded <strong>with</strong> time, and the resource must be used<br />
<strong>with</strong>in these constraints.<br />
One is still concerned <strong>with</strong> the frequency <strong>with</strong> which data should be<br />
collected, the optimum locations <strong>of</strong> collection, the provisions for data<br />
storage and the resources for analysis <strong>of</strong> the data. The use <strong>of</strong> a shortterm<br />
survey approach or establishment <strong>of</strong> a minimal number <strong>of</strong> permanent<br />
stateions. An analysis <strong>of</strong> historical data will yield insight into those<br />
parameters which require continuous analysis because <strong>of</strong> significant fluctuations<br />
and help to identify those locations which best identify changing<br />
conditions in the receiving water.<br />
In contrast to the monitoring <strong>of</strong> a simgle point over a long period, studies<br />
can be concenrrated over shorter times but more intensive. There is a<br />
questi01 ,f manual collection versus continuous, automatic recording. All<br />
parameters <strong>of</strong> interest can be determined on a continuous basis and the results
transmitted to a central storage facility, while water quality parametere<br />
that can be economically and dependently measured in the field are still<br />
somewhat limited.<br />
CONCLUSIONS<br />
Briefly, models to illucidate design parameters should be built <strong>with</strong><br />
available data in mind. By a process <strong>of</strong> separating and nesting, submodels<br />
can overcome inconsistencies. If goals are precisely stated as<br />
to function, various parameters can be represented by what ia available.<br />
The author has developed a series <strong>of</strong> models using very general data,<br />
leaving a latitude <strong>of</strong> alternative data.items to define a parameter. Data<br />
has a cost, collection and opportunity or decision errors also cost. If<br />
inadequacies continue, short-term intensive studies are justified, either<br />
now or backward, for example, point reviews can be used. Manual systems<br />
can be replaced by automatic monitors; all eight suggested parameters<br />
handled by electrodes. Generally speaking, however, automatic monitors<br />
tend to provide more data than are needed, because noone dares to turn<br />
these expensive machines <strong>of</strong>f or set the sampling interval to such a time<br />
interval that meaningful deviations can be recorded.<br />
One never has adequate data, nor can one afford to wait for it. So, models<br />
must be made using every device available, recognizing that the final<br />
result will still involve uncertainty and risks, and require judgement -<br />
the o<strong>nl</strong>y defense against inadequate data.<br />
359
360<br />
SELECTED REFERENCES<br />
1. Biswas, Asit K. PROCEEDINGS, INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON MODELLING<br />
TECHNIQUES IN WATER RESOURCES SYSTEMS. Volumes 1 and 2. Ottawa,<br />
Canada: Environment Canada, 1972.<br />
2. Herfindahl, Oris C. NATURAL RESOURCE INFORMATION FOR ECONOMIC<br />
DEVELOPMENT. Baltimore: John Hopkins Press, 1969.<br />
3. Krenkel, Peter A. (ed.). PROCEEDINGS OF THE SPECLAZTY CONFERENCE<br />
ON AUTOMATIC WATER QUALITY MANAÇEMENT IN EUROPE, No. 28.<br />
University, 1971.<br />
Vanderbilt<br />
4. Mancy, Khalil H. (ed.). INSTRUMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR WATER POLLUTION<br />
CONTROL. Ann Arbor, Mich.: Ann Arbor Science Publishers, Inc., 1971.<br />
5. Public Health Service. U. S. Department <strong>of</strong> Health, Education and<br />
Welfare. SYMPOSIUM ON ENVIRONMENTAL MEASUREMENTS, VALID DATA AND<br />
LOGICAL INTERPRETATION. Cincinnati, Ohio: Public Health Service, 1964.<br />
6. Public Health Service. U. S. Department <strong>of</strong> Health, Education and<br />
Welfare. SYPPOSILJM ON STREAMFLOW REGULATION FOR QUALITY CONTROL.<br />
Cincinnati, Ohio: Public Health Service, 1965.<br />
7. Thomas, William A. (ed.). INDICATORS OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY.<br />
New York: Plenum Press, 1972.
#<br />
PROBLEM<br />
FORMULATION<br />
DESIRED DATA<br />
V<br />
DATA<br />
COLLECTION<br />
ADEQUATE DATA<br />
I<br />
ANALYSIS<br />
1-SIMUUTION<br />
2-PROGRAMING<br />
- L<br />
V C<br />
r<br />
L<br />
DESIGN<br />
CRITERIA -<br />
Figure 1.<br />
c<br />
t<br />
361
362
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363
ABSTRACT<br />
DESIGNING PROJECTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF GROUND WATER<br />
RESOURCES IN THE ALLUVIAL PLAINS OF NORTHERN INDIA ON<br />
THE BASIS OF INADEQUATE DATA,<br />
BY<br />
B. K, SABHERWAL<br />
Utilization <strong>of</strong> ground water potential to develop irrigated<br />
agriculture in the alluvial plains <strong>of</strong> Northern India through<br />
"Push button" water wells has played a vital role to bring about<br />
the Green Revolution for meeting country's food deficit. But the<br />
positive development on the food front is o<strong>nl</strong>y a phase. Continuing<br />
population growth and the resultant increase in demand for food,<br />
fibre and other services obtaining from water use are adding to the<br />
water requirements thereby underlining the urgency to hasten<br />
execution <strong>of</strong> projects capable <strong>of</strong> delivering assured water supply to<br />
meet the demands <strong>of</strong> high yielding varieties (-HYV] crops, This can<br />
be achieved by installing more water wells in the alluvial plains<br />
<strong>of</strong> India rich in ground water potential. Ground water resource<br />
though it gets replenished annually, is not an inexhaustible resource,<br />
Ecological responsibility makes it incumbent on the planners <strong>of</strong><br />
ground water development projects that this precious resource, IS<br />
not exhausted due to over exploitation, Surface waters are tangible<br />
and their potential can be predicted upto reasonable certainity on<br />
the basis <strong>of</strong> long term observations <strong>of</strong> flow in channels. Assessment<br />
<strong>of</strong> ground water potential on the other hand is quite complicated.<br />
The difficulty arises on account <strong>of</strong> the fact that ground water<br />
relates to that invisible part <strong>of</strong> hydrologic cycle which occurs<br />
beneath the land surface. Evaluation <strong>of</strong> ground water resource to a<br />
high degree <strong>of</strong> accuracy is a multi discipline study involving,<br />
collection, analysis and synthesis <strong>of</strong> hydrological, geological,<br />
meteorological, geophysical, hydrochemical data, computing quantums<br />
<strong>of</strong> recharge, discharge and balance <strong>of</strong> ground water in a basin or a<br />
sub-basin and correlating the results <strong>with</strong> the changes in ground<br />
water levels and its regime, A comprehensive study <strong>of</strong> this type is<br />
time consuming and costly, In view <strong>of</strong> the latest developments in<br />
ground water hydrology the available hydrological and geological<br />
data is not adequate enough for a comprehensive and precise<br />
assessment <strong>of</strong> ground water potential though exploitation <strong>of</strong> ground<br />
water in India commenced quite some time back. On the other hand<br />
preparation and execution <strong>of</strong> plans and schemes for the exploitation<br />
<strong>of</strong> ground water cannot be held over till the completion <strong>of</strong> such a<br />
study which may take four to five years, ît has therefore become<br />
necessary to adopt some reasonably accurate methodology to evaluate<br />
the ground water potential <strong>with</strong> the help <strong>of</strong> the available data and<br />
plan ground water exploitation projects on its basis though at the<br />
same time keeping margin for subsequent adjustments when better<br />
data becomes available, Appraisal techniques and adopted criteria<br />
for an approximate evaluation <strong>of</strong> ground water balance in water table<br />
aquifers are described <strong>with</strong> particular reference to the Bist Doab<br />
Tract <strong>of</strong> the State <strong>of</strong> Punjab-India which has an area <strong>of</strong> 9000 sq.<br />
kilometers and where 80% <strong>of</strong> annual rainfall occurs in the months <strong>of</strong><br />
July to September. Significant part <strong>of</strong> the assessment study is the<br />
recharge to ground water from the annual flow <strong>of</strong> about 1.25 M.A.F.<br />
<strong>of</strong>; surface water thorough a net work <strong>of</strong> u<strong>nl</strong>ined and lined irrigation<br />
canals and its ultimate spillage in the cropped fields. On the
366<br />
discharge side is the drawal by approximately, 0.1 million existing<br />
shallow and deep water water wells which are either electrically or<br />
diesel driven. The electrically driven wells have unmetered electric<br />
supply, the tarrif being on the basis <strong>of</strong> horse power <strong>of</strong> the electric<br />
motor. For both the tupes <strong>of</strong> water wells log books recording the<br />
number <strong>of</strong> hours a tubewell operates are not being maintained by the<br />
private owners, This aspect further adds to the problem <strong>of</strong> working<br />
out accurate drawals from and return seepage to ground water in<br />
tubewell irrigated fields, In the absence <strong>of</strong> adequate data to<br />
correctly evaluate ground water potential and pressing necessity to<br />
exploit the potential for food production statistìcal or empirical<br />
methods have been adopted to work out ground water balance and then<br />
apply a reasonable safety factor to take care <strong>of</strong> short comings in the<br />
approach. In the project areas water table fluctuations are also<br />
being observed more frequently to closely watch the effect <strong>of</strong><br />
additional draft,<br />
RESUME<br />
L'utilization du potentiel des eaux souterraines pour le<br />
développement de 1"agriculture irriguées dans les plaines alluviales<br />
de l'Inde du Nord au moyen des puits d'eau du button-préssoir a<br />
joué un rôle vital pour accompler la "Revolution Verte'' afin de<br />
satisfaire les besoins deficitaires des aliments du pays. Mais le<br />
développement positif sur le front de nourriture n'est qu'une phase.<br />
La continuation de la croissance de la population et l'augmentation<br />
resultante du besoin de nourriture, tissus, et des autres services<br />
utilizant l'eau necessitent les besoins de l'eau supplementaires,<br />
ainsi soulignant l'urgence de l'ëxecution des projets capables de<br />
l'alimentation fourniture assuT+e d'eau pour subvenir la demande des<br />
récolte de haute z-eqdement. On peut satisfaire cette demande en<br />
installant plus de pults d'eau dans les plaines alluviales de l'Inde<br />
du Nord, riches en potentiel des eaux souterraines. Des ressources<br />
des eaux souterraines quoiqu'elles se remplissent chaque année, n'est<br />
pas une ressource ingpuissable. La responsabilité écologique le rend<br />
obligatoire aux planificateurs des projets des eaux souterraines de<br />
voir que cette ressource prlcieuse ne seppuisse pas, en raison de<br />
sur-éxplóitation. Des eaux de surface sont tangibles et on peut prédire<br />
leur potentiel jusqu'une certitude raisonnable sur la base des obser-<br />
vations à long terme de l'écoulament des eaux dans les canaux. L'esti-<br />
mation du potentiel des eaux souterraines par contre est bien compli-<br />
quee. La difficulté s'8le've en raison du fait que l'eau souterraine<br />
se rapporte à cette partie invisible du cycle hydrologique qui se<br />
fait au-dessous de la surface de la terre. La nature héterogene des<br />
formations géologiques à travers lesquelles l'eau souterrasne circule<br />
rajoute à la complzxitê du problame. YaloTisation des ressources des<br />
eaux souterraines a une haute degr6 d'exactitude est une étude de dis-<br />
ciplines multiples comprenant recuîl, analyse et synthese des données<br />
hydrologiques, géologiques, méteorologiques, géophysiques et hydro-<br />
-chemiques, calculant les quanta de récharge, d@scñarge et le bi'lan<br />
l'eau souterraine dans un bassin ou sous-bassin et mettant en corréla-<br />
tion les résultats avec des changements dans les niveaux d'eau soute-<br />
rraine et son régime. Une étude detaillée de cette type demandes plus<br />
de temps et est coûteause. En vue des plus derniers dêveloppments dans<br />
l'hydrologie de l'eau souterraine la données hydrologiques et géologi-<br />
ques disponibles ne sont pas assez pour une estimation complJte et
367<br />
exacte du potentiel des eaux souterraines, bien que l'exploitation<br />
des eaux souterraines commence il y a quelque temps dans le passé.<br />
D'un autre cote, la préparation et l'dxecution des plans ou schemes<br />
pour l'exploitation des eaux souterraines ne peut pas &tre arrêtées<br />
jucqu'a la complétion d'une telle étude quì puisse prendre, 4 ou 5<br />
ans.Donc, i1 est devenu nécessaire d'adopter une méthodologie<br />
raisonnable exacte pour estimer le potentiel des eaux souterraines<br />
avec l'aide des donnêes dìsponsible et planifier des projets<br />
d'exploitation des eaux souterraines, au même temps en retenant une<br />
marge pour les modificatìons subséquentes quand p+us de données<br />
seront dispo<strong>nl</strong>bles. Les technìques d'estìmatïon, pour une valorisa-<br />
tion approximative de balance d'eau souterraine decrite avec une<br />
réference particulière à BIST DOAB tracte Etat de Punjab en Inde qui<br />
a un terrain de 9000 kilometres-carres et ou 80% de pluie annuelle<br />
arrive aux mois de Juillet.Septembre. La partie signìficative d'6tude<br />
estimative concerne la récharge 2 l'eau souterraine de l'écoulement<br />
annual d'environ 1.25 M.A.F. (million acre pieds) d'eau de surface<br />
par un réseau de canaux d'irrigation alignes et non alignes, et son<br />
utilization ultîme dans les champs cultivés, A cbtk de déchargement<br />
1.0 million des existants puits d'eaux qui sont opérées soit par<br />
electricit6 soit par essence. Des puits mechanizes par electricit6<br />
assurent une alimentation d'eau sans compteur d'electrictricite, le<br />
tarrif étant basé sur le C.V. des moteurs eléctrlques, Pour les deux<br />
types de puits d'eaux, des carnets à régle concernant le nombre des<br />
heures qu'un puit S opére, ne sont pas tenus par les propriétaires<br />
prives. Cet aspect ajoute encore au problème de calculs des puise-<br />
ments exacts de l'eau souterraine dans les champs irrigués au moyen<br />
des puits à moteurs électriques, Dans l'absence de données de valo-<br />
riser correctement le potentiel d'eau souterraine & la nécessité<br />
pressante d'exploiter le potentiel pour la production de nourriture<br />
les methodes empiriques et de statistiques ont Btd adoptées pour<br />
retrouver la balance d'eau-souterraine et d'appliquer un facteur<br />
raisonable de sÛréte de bein rendre compte des fautes dans la mainère<br />
d'aborder, Dans les regions sous observation on étudie aussi tres<br />
souvent le niveau de variabilité d'eau pour remarquer de pres<br />
l'effect d'eau puisée en supplement,
368<br />
1. UTROWCTICN<br />
1.1 India i6 the seventh largeet country in tbe<br />
World. ït's area is 328 million hectarest 3-28 million bqtlue<br />
iiiïorn9ters) <strong>with</strong> a population <strong>of</strong> 547 million (1971)<br />
Agricultural out put accounts for half <strong>of</strong> thr country's Gross<br />
23: tioneï droductí GPW.<br />
1.2 In the year 1947 wheu the country was divided,<br />
the major irL-i;jation syskais únd %cod piav~ucLi? ?reas were<br />
lost to rtkistm resuïtiag ILI a deficit <strong>of</strong> 4 dillions tmms <strong>of</strong> food grains. India had tbrefcm to iwort ,ILL t;.c's.us<br />
from the major wheat producing countries <strong>of</strong> the world till<br />
the advent <strong>of</strong> Green devolution recently brought about by<br />
the'incrrased utilization <strong>of</strong> country(s surface water resources<br />
for irriyqtion from 93745 priïlion ~1 m (76 million acre ft.)<br />
in IL361 to 222000 milîion CU m ( 186 miliion acYe a.) at<br />
Grosent ?nd t<strong>of</strong> ground water lli000 Pilllion CU m (I30 million<br />
ecre ft.) üse í~f high yielding variety (W) seePS <strong>of</strong><br />
cerc<strong>nl</strong>s hke wheat ,rice,wiize,Jawar and Bjra hes Ris0<br />
hastened to a great extent the tremendous increase III<br />
'food cut put. Cevelopmgnt Of rtwarf varieties <strong>of</strong> wheat made<br />
Possible following the introduction <strong>of</strong> valuable genetic<br />
material from bxtco 141 1962 has alone increased the production<br />
<strong>of</strong> thb important cereal from neerly 12 to 23 million tonnes<br />
<strong>with</strong>in a period <strong>of</strong> about five yeam.<br />
1.3 Eilt the maximm production per unit <strong>of</strong> any<br />
Particular variety <strong>of</strong> m d seed is the result <strong>of</strong> a set <strong>of</strong><br />
cultivation practices proper doses o9 ioputs prophylactic<br />
and curative measures to check the atta& OP insects, pests<br />
and disewes end above all adequate irrigation at proper time.<br />
2. INDIA-PH!EICAL AND OTHE=TI FJ3AlWRES.<br />
2.1 Physio raphially Indkais main land can be<br />
divided into six divisfons comprishg <strong>of</strong> i-<br />
i) the Himslayan mountains<br />
ii) the indo-Gangetio Plains<br />
iii) the Central Hiagi Unda<br />
the Decm Plateau<br />
the Eastern Coastal Belt<br />
vi) the Western Coastal Belt<br />
2.2 The Himla moimtains are <strong>of</strong> comparatively<br />
recent origin. The Deccan Eteau end the CentraR Hi@ Lande<br />
are composed <strong>of</strong> ancient rocks. The Plains are hilt up<br />
<strong>of</strong> layers <strong>of</strong> sends, clays <strong>of</strong> molo loally very recent &te.<br />
The metern anditestem Coastal befts comprise <strong>of</strong> deltaic<br />
and sedimentary marine deposits.<br />
2.3<br />
About 7<strong>of</strong> <strong>of</strong> the country's ama is under lain by<br />
hard rock <strong>with</strong> a thin soil cotrer at top derived fra l%o<br />
wealtherinn <strong>of</strong> rocks. IO 1i, mai<strong>nl</strong>y the Indo-Gan etic Phkis and<br />
the two deltaic Eastern and Westem Coastal dts which are<br />
made up <strong>of</strong> alluvial solls and sedfmentwy deposits varying in<br />
thickness from a few hundred feet ln the coastal belts to<br />
thousands <strong>of</strong> feet in the Plains.<br />
2.4 Ailuviai soils are suitable for agricultum<br />
and respond well to artificial irrigation. Being generally<br />
permeable in character and having laysrs <strong>of</strong> coarser deposits<br />
also provide under ground storage for seepage water. NO<br />
wonder the Indo-GangetLe Plains, 8nd the tu0 coestal belts<br />
though accomt for on1 l./3 <strong>of</strong> the oauitry'e laad rnam ?ut<br />
suwort atmut <strong>of</strong> tL caintrps por<strong>nl</strong>ation.<br />
2.6<br />
The maor snow fed riveris <strong>of</strong> tu country naaiely<br />
the triaitaries <strong>of</strong> the U&s, the cianges and the Bwhaii Putra<br />
flow rlugyishly through the indo-Gangetic Blain. The main rivers
369<br />
flowing to the coastal belts are the Xarkda and the Tapti on<br />
the western side Cmd the Maha Nadi, the Godavari, the Krishana<br />
rind the Cavery on the eastern sir%. All these rivers outfall<br />
into sea. The rfvers also provide irririation supklies to the<br />
vast net work <strong>of</strong> m al systems part <strong>of</strong> which was constructed<br />
about a century back. host <strong>of</strong> the old canals are designed as<br />
Il mn <strong>of</strong> the riveril schemes and are u<strong>nl</strong>ined. The u<strong>nl</strong>ined cana.ls<br />
act es additicnal souY'ce <strong>of</strong> recharge to ground water besides<br />
seepage from rivers, streams and rainfall.<br />
2.6 In dia s clima. te ranges from con t in en ta. 1 to<br />
oceanic, from extrems <strong>of</strong> heat to extrerns <strong>of</strong> cold, Prom high<br />
a.ridity a.nd negligible rainfall to excessive humidity and<br />
torrential rainfall. Sauth destemi monsoons in summer accounts<br />
for mre than 85% <strong>of</strong> the precipitation and that too in a<br />
short span <strong>of</strong> about 4 months. The great diversity in weather<br />
conditions and uncertainity <strong>of</strong> rainfall results in the prevalence<br />
<strong>of</strong> draught condition in about one third <strong>of</strong> the country.<br />
3. GROW D :,! AT-g 2 17s<br />
3.1 In the face <strong>of</strong> variability and tirircliability <strong>of</strong><br />
rsinfall and also lack <strong>of</strong>' adequate storage support for some Of<br />
the major canal irrigation schemes, tappin:? <strong>of</strong> zround water<br />
resource through iiells and tubewells for intensive agriciiltu re<br />
has pla ed a yitzl role in ushering the (Green Revolution<br />
particu Y a.rly in these parts <strong>of</strong> the country where low or badly<br />
distributed rainfall is quickly lost thrm$l evaporation Ixit<br />
where g-ound watnr potential is available stored in alluvial<br />
deposits<br />
3. 3 Cultive.tion <strong>of</strong> high yielding varieties and<br />
intmsive cropping dernad water at the right time and <strong>of</strong> the<br />
rewired quantity. These pre-requisits have made the<br />
cultivators in areas <strong>with</strong> copious ground watcr supplies take<br />
to the instcllatïon <strong>of</strong> their own', push aittontt irrigation<br />
systems. The water scarcity during the yesr 1365-67 which<br />
created draught conditions almost all over the country acted<br />
as catalyist to boost up exploitation <strong>of</strong> ground water poteiitfal<br />
thmu& diesel or electrically operated tubwells 100 feet<br />
to 200fbet dealfor the protection <strong>of</strong> Crops.<br />
3.3 The Govemrcent also rose to the occassion and<br />
undertook to provide large saale loan finance to the cultivstors.<br />
for the installation <strong>of</strong> tubewells on their farms in areas where<br />
the ground watcr potentialities were promising. The result is<br />
that at present an investment <strong>of</strong> about Rs.2000 crores hac Filreacbr<br />
bean Lade in the field <strong>of</strong> ground water exploitation in the<br />
country. Most <strong>of</strong> this investment has taken place in private<br />
sector.<br />
3.4 The following table, indicates the progress Of<br />
insxellation <strong>of</strong> tubwells in the a3untry:-<br />
(In thousands I<br />
250 - 1965 A969 - 1971 -.- (anticipated)<br />
Mo.<strong>of</strong> private tubewells 3 100 279 470<br />
rio.<strong>of</strong> diesel pumps 66 471 837 1150<br />
No.<strong>of</strong> electric pump sets 19 513 1080 1620<br />
Total 88 1084 2196 3240
370<br />
3.5 The spectacular development <strong>of</strong> ground water<br />
utilization in the country has been influenced by a npmber <strong>of</strong><br />
factors namely the rzcognition by farmers <strong>of</strong> the importmt role<br />
played by ground water in sustaining modern agricultural<br />
techniques, incrceaed availability <strong>of</strong> institutional credit for<br />
financing the ground water exploitation programme, rapid<br />
electrification Of rural areas, local availebility <strong>of</strong> technical<br />
how how to drill well8 <strong>with</strong> machines, and indiyenously<br />
manufactured pumps, motors and other equipmat for the<br />
construction <strong>of</strong> wells and above all large scale village road<br />
deve lopmen t p rogr amme .<br />
3.6<br />
Heavy investments in gound water exploitati.<br />
schemes and the involvement <strong>of</strong> the Government back institufional<br />
credit far the purpose has made it incunibent to plan and execute<br />
this programme <strong>of</strong> utmost natio'lal imoortance duly sumorted by<br />
proper assessment <strong>of</strong> ground water potential.<br />
4. HYDROLOCEIC CYCB.<br />
4.1 All the waters in existance en be located by<br />
what is ïmìwn as 1) hydrologic cyclen or 11 Nater Cycle". This<br />
C cle involves total earth system comprising <strong>of</strong> the atmosphere,<br />
d e hydro-sphere Snd the lithosphere. The activities <strong>of</strong> the<br />
n ilater Cycle" are vast extending from an average depth <strong>of</strong> about<br />
half a mile in the lithosphere to abcut 10 miles in the<br />
a tmsphere .<br />
4.2 Hydrologic cycle is greatly influenced by the<br />
geologic history <strong>of</strong> a particular area. If the geology consists<br />
<strong>of</strong> alluvial fmnatlons, water will occur in the openings<br />
between granular XcFosits; EUT; if the area fOr~tiOnS are rocky,<br />
the ground water Will be found in decomposed parts <strong>of</strong> ro&B,<br />
freotures or in tabular openings in soluable rocks or opening<br />
in lava formed by flow or gas expansion during solidification.<br />
Guide lines to evaluate ground water potential in alluvial<br />
formatias have o<strong>nl</strong>y been discussed in this p3Per.<br />
4.3 Ground water originates from surface water and<br />
gets renewed or recharged <strong>with</strong> the down vard percolation Of<br />
precipitation, flow in stream, canale, return flow fra irri,ated fields etc. Propm assessment <strong>of</strong> this valuable<br />
resource fomd in Permeable geQlOgac formations and in motim<br />
through the voids or pore spaces in an area requires working<br />
out its total storage and quantities whir& are annually pumped<br />
out or replenished into the ground water reservoir. bality Of<br />
grOUnd water .leo requires to be known. Comprehensive studies<br />
and explorati-ns -re necessary to evaluate the potential to a<br />
hfgh degree <strong>of</strong> accuracy.<br />
5. APPRbACH TO WORK OUT GRWdD WATER BULLANCE;<br />
ON TI% &.SIS OF INADECrJATE DATA.<br />
5.1 hthodology for the precise eva2natioB <strong>of</strong> ground<br />
vater potential is quite complicated. The difficulty arises 691<br />
account <strong>of</strong> the fact that ground water relates to the.t invisible
371<br />
pert <strong>of</strong> hydrologic cycle which occurs 'beneath the land surface.<br />
9etero~~eneoUs nature <strong>of</strong> the ,(.f?ological format ions through which<br />
ground water moves e-dds to the coarplexity <strong>of</strong> the problem.<br />
5.2 It ha.s been observed by pump tests that in Punjab<br />
which is the Northern-Western part <strong>of</strong> the Indo-Gangetic Plain<br />
alluvial materials constitute an extensive hetrogeneous and<br />
a.nisotropic unconfined aquifers . Discharge from tubwells as<br />
deep a$ 300' results in- draw-down <strong>of</strong> water tsóle over larye<br />
prea. ?nd is sustained by dawrltering <strong>of</strong> surface watr,r recharne,<br />
such condit iow jrevail through out the top aauffers ~f slluaiurn.<br />
5.3 Planning and designing <strong>of</strong> ground vmte? development<br />
through small and medium sized tubewells (1.10 to 200 feet<br />
deep) in the ground water &sins and sub-basins o0 the indo-<br />
Gmjetic plain ' cím therefore be ,compared to re:.err)ir prObLem.<br />
This approach cal-1s for drawing iipm the fresh water table<br />
a,quifem upto the Safe Yield which should not. exceed ^che long<br />
term mean -annual supply or recherge involving wet and dry years.<br />
In view <strong>of</strong> lack <strong>of</strong> complete data the genersl. i"om CJf bhe squrtie.cn<br />
<strong>of</strong> hydrologic equilibrium in thcs project areas has been simplified<br />
cmd suitably adjusted to arrive at worh.ble ,g:rourid ;iater hiance.<br />
In areas having ground water quality problem Safe Yield cannot<br />
be equated to mean annual recharger<br />
5.4 Installation af tubewci-11s upto 300 feet for<br />
irriz8tion is being practised in India since 19.34-36. In<br />
edditìon, tubwells vere a.lso install.ed Por municlpal,rai%ays<br />
Tnd indust, ia1 use. Geological Survey <strong>of</strong> India, state Zrri%ticn<br />
&partmats and Central Gróund -.:a.ter Board have bom iminte.in1ng<br />
oeological, hydrological, geochemical and other ground water<br />
data <strong>of</strong> a rudimentary character. Irrigation Depart<strong>nl</strong>snts have<br />
also meintahed record <strong>of</strong> water table fluctuations keduced to<br />
mean sea level ( 1%.Lr) from a net work <strong>of</strong> observa.tion wells.<br />
kmccipitatScn, racord is kept by Indian bieteorological Department.<br />
Ifit no are?wlse systematic investi.zations and exploration to<br />
a-ssess ground water potential were conàucted. In the absence<br />
<strong>of</strong> adequate ùata to evaluate ground water potlontkal on the basis<br />
<strong>of</strong> lat$st deVelOPI~ent6 in grmd water hydrology and pressing<br />
necessity to exploit ground water potential statistica.1,<br />
analytical and empiriel wtbods were resorted to arrive at<br />
preliminary quantitative evaluatîon <strong>of</strong> ground water balances in<br />
the pro,je ct areas<br />
5.5 Ground water balance te Plan schemes was<br />
computed on the collp,ction and malysis <strong>of</strong> the following basic<br />
data in project areast-<br />
1. Village -wise iocatim5 and other details <strong>of</strong> existing<br />
tu heiaelle<br />
2. Colleetion <strong>of</strong> reliable litholo- <strong>of</strong> tubewer-ils.<br />
3. Iso-pstch featums E@ revealed by litho-lons and<br />
geologid correlation <strong>of</strong> strata upto the available<br />
depths to broadly understand t.he geometry <strong>of</strong> aquifers.
372<br />
4.<br />
5.<br />
6.<br />
7.<br />
8.<br />
il.<br />
10.<br />
11 0<br />
12.<br />
13.<br />
,Sample observatiais <strong>of</strong> pumping rates o? existing tubewells<br />
by ushg simple devices(0rifice or ri,qht Angled '6-notch) .<br />
dimple surveys to assess pumping hours for surn'lier and<br />
winter crops to work out present ground water draft<br />
in the Gi'oj ect .-;.rea.<br />
Locatim <strong>of</strong> raingaue stations m d annual ra.infel1 datn.<br />
for the last 20 to 30 years. '<br />
::eighted mean average annual rainfall fill;ures for<br />
different blocks <strong>of</strong> the area by Theisson method.<br />
Locations <strong>of</strong> existing pugln?JdischPrp sites on stresms,<br />
drains and CO! lectfon <strong>of</strong> run <strong>of</strong>f data monthwise.<br />
Available ground water qiality data to demrcate fresh<br />
and inferior ground water zones.<br />
Location <strong>of</strong> existing cmel irriyation s,Ftem m d data<br />
about their len$.hs ,. sectims,( lined/u<strong>nl</strong>ined) desiled<br />
dischzcrges, actual flow time and areawise.<br />
Yeriod-wise flow in enals Rt the point OP entry into<br />
and exit from the project area.<br />
Locations <strong>of</strong> existkg water table observation wells<br />
and past data <strong>of</strong> tiatcr table fluctustbas for pre<br />
and post monsoon periods<br />
hater table depth data to delineate high water table<br />
areas . Cropping pet tern, cropkning cslander and water<br />
14<br />
requirements for summer and winter crops.<br />
15 . :,orking out zvera- value <strong>of</strong> specific yield <strong>of</strong> the<br />
formations, either by pump tests or empirically.<br />
6. TJXH1vICk.L CRITl3RI.A FOF GROTD ?dUKE PLZ./L".JJCI:<br />
C0PîJT;RTIDN.<br />
Technical criteria adopted to work out ground<br />
water balance is given as under:-<br />
6.1 Rechars oroni R&infall<br />
Unconfined %quifers get recharwd from local<br />
rainfall. Based on the sQiilles ccnducted in the Ganges &sin<br />
for period 1937-78 to 19Sû-51 a relationship vas evolved to<br />
WO& out net penetmtim <strong>of</strong> rain water to water teble in<br />
alluvial areas<br />
2/5<br />
Rp t 2*O(R-15)'<br />
'Ihere R average annual rainfall Zn inches.<br />
Rp = annial rainfall penetration to water<br />
table in inches.<br />
ïhis relationship applies to areas having<br />
annual rainfall in excess <strong>of</strong> 15".<br />
6.2 beemge from Canals<br />
seepage loss values from u<strong>nl</strong>ined canals based on
373<br />
experimental data are given below. These figures are inclusive<br />
<strong>of</strong> evaporation losses which form o<strong>nl</strong>y a small proportion:-<br />
i) In the :tete <strong>of</strong> Uttar Brzdech-ïndia it is about 8 Cs.<br />
(GU ft/:iec.jfor ordínary clay loam to about 16 cs.for<br />
sandy loam Per million 5;q.feet <strong>of</strong> wcttad parameter.<br />
i,verage king 10 CS ./k.qt .<br />
li> In the Wz1iarashtr.a State-India these sire calculated at<br />
15 Cs./M sat. for discharse upto 250 CS. anil lO.&s!./M%ft<br />
for hiisher discliarzes.<br />
iïi) In FunJab and Haryana state -India =lue, <strong>of</strong> ..eepa
374<br />
alopes <strong>of</strong> the $round water table in the $lains the quantity <strong>of</strong><br />
subterrainem flow g ~tthg $.h and out <strong>of</strong> project are- is<br />
negligible 2s conipared to vertical recharge from rainfall,<br />
cmal PB~PU~L, return flow from irrigated fields etc. Henthis<br />
item has been omitted from computatiuns on both sides<br />
<strong>of</strong> hydraulic equation amialy due to' the non-availability <strong>of</strong><br />
adequate data.<br />
6 r? Ground wqtrr loss due to non bene3tçkl<br />
etrapo-tranepiration in water logged areas.<br />
EvagotreEspiration losses ars related to depth<br />
<strong>of</strong> water table froin th@ ground surface 81.14 vegetatkq cover.<br />
Airing July to October period when recharge to grow-d water<br />
reservoir is maximum Qe to rainfall and high supplies in rivers<br />
and canals etc. water table rises towards ground surface. In<br />
the riverain md water Jogged tracts, the depth <strong>of</strong> Found water<br />
veries between zero to 6 feet below lanu surface. in 1963,<br />
'J.S. B.RI conducted experiments/ obervctiuns for salvaging<br />
ground water t6i?g evawqsteü from ground LI' transpired non<br />
beqeficially by vegetation In the central part <strong>of</strong> san-his Valley,<br />
Ceil'tral Coloredo ( U.S+) t Graphs were plotted, correlating E.T.<br />
loss to ground water depth E.T.loss th negligible if water table<br />
is lowered to 12.5k<br />
Persistance <strong>of</strong> higher water table 5r water<br />
logged amas indicates that recharge to ground waster is equivalent<br />
to the E.T.loss or may be $ven morg. Pending detailed studies,<br />
it would be reasonably pod planning to draft grouad water<br />
<strong>with</strong>in the limits <strong>of</strong> water est9rnated to be lost through evapotranspirat<br />
ion.<br />
6 08 Draft froor the exhthg state (deep) and<br />
Arivate (shallow ) tubewells.<br />
The State tubewells ( 1.5 to 2r0 CS. cawcity)<br />
ere planaad to operate at 22 hours a day for 240 days in a y6arr<br />
Henœ dmal draft from state Tubewells varies frm 660 acre ft.<br />
to 880 acre ft. Shallow tubeiwslls (0.2 to 0.8 cs.cepacity) for<br />
abut 800 to i000 hours per year. Draft fra these wells cm b<br />
taken as 15 acre ft, to acre e, per well per year. por wells<br />
driven by animal power dralpt Is taken W 5 acre ft. while for<br />
drinking sugply wells in villages the draft 1 acre ft. has been<br />
adopted per mimam.<br />
6s 9 SpaqIpg q$ shallo~ tubewells, '<br />
Closdl spaaed tubewells muse mutual hydlaulic<br />
interfpence due to ovQr fapphg 09 their ocrnes <strong>of</strong> depression.<br />
In ~ thi&y populated &we&9 <strong>of</strong> the IndolGangetic Plph@ Qr<br />
abry Basin ?mm ho&&hgs are very small < abcut 10 to 15 acres<br />
per head ) . The tuWells aro <strong>of</strong> 0.2 to 0.3 cubic feet/ $eco<br />
dfaeharge and 100'-190' deep. These wells do not run more than<br />
10 to 15% <strong>of</strong> the time in a year. After tests results minimm<br />
epacinp <strong>of</strong> such wells has been kept at abut 600 feet 6
375<br />
6.10 Grotmd WatEr Ealmce<br />
Computing the item <strong>of</strong> ,annual recharge and<br />
discharge as por criteria discussed above if a balance is<br />
struck 5 first estimation <strong>of</strong> the balance <strong>of</strong> T2cbyze potcntntlal<br />
in a Project crea beccmes laown for planning further explcit-ticq.<br />
A reasotinble factor <strong>of</strong> safety can be adopted to plen exploitetim<br />
<strong>of</strong> the comnuted ground water ImiBncs which tcakes care <strong>of</strong> the<br />
saps in the available data or the appraisal approech. The fa.ctor<br />
will depend on area conditicns.<br />
7. GHOTjND b~dkii BLLA.?JiCG IN B145T DCAB 'I'R.'ICT<br />
7.1 Bict Doab is a triangu1a.r part <strong>of</strong> the Punjab<br />
StF.te ( India ) enclosed the rivers Sutlej and the Beas on<br />
t?:c ciäes and aivalu hi1 9 s (lover iïj.ml8yan ranyes) on thc<br />
third side. Three districts <strong>of</strong> the state ncmely Jullundur ,<br />
doshiarmr and Kapurthala are located in th;c tract .<br />
7.2 The area <strong>of</strong> the trect is 9900 Fq. Kilometers<br />
mostly mugrising <strong>of</strong> alluvial plpin except the 8 miles wide<br />
belt <strong>of</strong> Shivalik Hills on the XGrth-eestorri ,?id&. depth <strong>of</strong><br />
alluvium in the plain as revealed by seismic surveys is thousends<br />
feet.<br />
7.3 Gmeral water table is abut 20 to c% feet in the<br />
plains. Avcrzge ?.nnual rainfall in hilly region 1s 1200 mms<br />
tJhils in the plains it varies between 914 mm tc 635 mm. 80% <strong>of</strong><br />
the rainfpll occurs during the monsoon period.<br />
7 04 The soils are fertile and the ??SB 112s Copious<br />
gromnd water supplies. There are abcut 0.2 million irriqatiw<br />
tubwells clnà dugwells in the area. Quality OP grmnd water is<br />
qood for cultivation.<br />
7.5 The tract is also irri,gated tl-iraigh Bist mab<br />
eanal which draws its supplies fYom the barrage on tho river<br />
Lutkj at Rupar. Abut 1.25 M.A.F. <strong>of</strong> water is used annually<br />
for cultiva.i;ion. The net work <strong>of</strong> canal system Measures 7,54.28<br />
Lilcirieters out <strong>of</strong> which 34.5i) Km. is lined. mcthcr feature<br />
<strong>of</strong> tile; area is ;iutiierous hilly utrea=( clioec) which descend<br />
from the :,hivz~lik hills and fiord o<strong>nl</strong>y &i.ing monsoon period<br />
w ith flashy uischw .;es<br />
7.6 The recharge and discharge computntions ta<br />
work out the ground Kater bzlance in the m ea dis+;rictwise are<br />
talxilated 88 per stateuats i & 11. .A safety factcr 0.60 has<br />
been cùopted to the computed figures to arrive a.t the exploitable<br />
grourd water stential. The water ttible f1uctuatir:ns end the<br />
rainfall hi the area 8i-e being closely observed to watch the<br />
strezses m d strains covered by ground water exb>lcitat*on on<br />
the shallow unconfined aquifers under water table conCAtions<br />
8. ca4crusCáu<br />
8.1, Demographic trends indicete that the Lndia's<br />
populatun is likely to inn,ease to 700 millions by the end <strong>of</strong><br />
the present dea&. On the kcis <strong>of</strong> the piiojecte8 growth rate
376<br />
cf 1.45 per tbausand per a<strong>nl</strong>iuam during 1981-85 the population<br />
wmld rise to 300.millions in the year ZOO0 A.D. i.e. about<br />
S5$ increase over the 1371 population. Keeping in view the<br />
expected improvement in the standard <strong>of</strong> living <strong>of</strong> the people<br />
during the intervening period, the food and fibre requirements<br />
will increase by abwt 100% <strong>of</strong> 1371 production. Suck an<br />
enormous increase in the production is possible through intensive<br />
agriculture and bringing additional areas under irrigation by<br />
optima utilization <strong>of</strong> the water resources (Surface and qround )<br />
8.2 Tnis will eventually result in intensified drawels<br />
<strong>of</strong> ground waters from shallow as well as deep aquifers. Ground<br />
water resource though it gets replenished annually, is not an<br />
inexhaustible resource. Ecological respansi bility mkes it<br />
incumbent on the planners <strong>of</strong> ground water development projects<br />
that this precious resource: is not exhausted due to over<br />
exploitatbn arid is so utilized that it also remakis ava.ilable<br />
ïor the yencrstion to come. Therefore aremise potential <strong>of</strong><br />
ground wa.ter anà its safe yield both from shallower and deep<br />
aquifers neads to te assessed as accurately as possible to<br />
prepa1.e realistic exploitat ion plms and schemes. This aspect<br />
has ben duly recognized and separate state level orgpnizations<br />
cmpï-is ing <strong>of</strong> hydrologists, hydrometeorologist, geologist,<br />
agronomist, geoph scist and drilling engineers have been set up<br />
to carry out deta s led investigationa. These detailed studies<br />
will however take time.<br />
However to maIntaln the continuity <strong>of</strong><br />
N grow more food 1) compaign exploitation <strong>of</strong> ground water<br />
recharge &lance may be planned on the %sis <strong>of</strong> Safe Yield worked<br />
out <strong>with</strong> the approximations and applicatmn <strong>of</strong> safety factors<br />
suited to each project area.<br />
1.<br />
mmmv CES<br />
Report <strong>of</strong> the Irrigation Commissian, 1972, Volume-I,<br />
Ministry <strong>of</strong> Irrigation and irower, New Delhi.<br />
2.<br />
3.<br />
Krishnm, M.S.,m Geology <strong>of</strong> India and Emma<br />
Tolm, C.J.,l) Ground<strong>Water</strong> " .<br />
4, Ehattacharya, R.P. 1) Ground <strong>Water</strong> supplice, depletion <strong>of</strong><br />
water table and penetration <strong>of</strong> rain water to ground water<br />
table in Western Uttar Pradesh ( India )IIo<br />
5. U.S.G.S. <strong>Water</strong>-supply paper, 1608-G Anplycis <strong>of</strong> Aquîfcr<br />
Tests in the Punjab Region <strong>of</strong> West Pakistan<br />
6. tJ.s.';.S. :uater supkly papc'r, 1608-G '1 Ground <strong>Water</strong><br />
Hydrciogy <strong>of</strong> the Punjab, West Pakistan 1~1th '=mphasiS<br />
<strong>of</strong> ?rcblems caused by Canal Irriggtion II .
7.<br />
8.<br />
9.<br />
10 o<br />
11 b"<br />
12<br />
33.<br />
14<br />
15 o.<br />
377
37 8<br />
ITEMS<br />
-<br />
ISWlhRpI<br />
-<br />
1.410<br />
.7ss<br />
b.30<br />
-<br />
D.310<br />
0.oy<br />
0.27<br />
0.06<br />
&IO<<br />
o .ai<br />
ODs'<br />
o .41<br />
o .Ia!<br />
STATEMENT I
A DRAFT<br />
CROSS DRAF T(1+2+:<br />
1 41<br />
II 9<br />
6SC<br />
7 S2<br />
96<br />
2s<br />
. Il<br />
379<br />
0.309<br />
o. 132
380<br />
S E\SM\C L \ NE’S<br />
RE F LE CTI ON<br />
REFRACTI ON<br />
h<br />
8-<br />
TEST WELL LOCATION 8<br />
CONTOUR INTERVAL 02KM<br />
DATUM M.s L<br />
hLLUV\kL PU\H5 O<br />
?LRYLbRY (SM\\uhL\KS)
MAP 15<br />
381
ABSTRACT<br />
IMPROVED TECHNIQUES FOR WATER RESOURCE SYSTEMS DESIGN<br />
J R SEXTON<br />
D G JAMIESON<br />
WATER RESOURCES BOARD, READING, ENGLAND<br />
Flow data inadequacy can take different forms. One extreme is<br />
the complete lack <strong>of</strong> any information but the more usual case is<br />
insufficient length <strong>of</strong> record since very long sequences <strong>of</strong> flow<br />
data are required to evaluate the yield and reliability <strong>of</strong> water-<br />
-resource systems <strong>with</strong> confidence. Using traditional concepts <strong>of</strong><br />
failure and reliability, all water-resource systems are being<br />
designed on inadequate data <strong>with</strong> o<strong>nl</strong>y the degree <strong>of</strong> inadequay<br />
varying between schemes, The use <strong>of</strong> simulation as a design technique<br />
has necessitated a more rigorous definition <strong>of</strong> reliability which<br />
accepts the lack <strong>of</strong> data yet maintains a means <strong>of</strong> comparing the<br />
reliability <strong>of</strong> different schemes both in terms <strong>of</strong> frequency and<br />
magnitude <strong>of</strong> failure, A new definition <strong>of</strong> reservoir reliability<br />
has been used for the hydrological design <strong>of</strong> the Wash Estuary<br />
Storage, a proposed series <strong>of</strong> pumped-storage reservoirs in south-east<br />
England.<br />
RESUMEN<br />
La insuficiencia de datos de flujo puede tomar formas distin-<br />
tas. Ocurre el caso extremo de la falta total de información, pero<br />
lo más usual es la duración insuficiente de registro puesto que se<br />
necesitan cantidades inordenadas de datos de flujo para que se eva-<br />
IÚen confianza la eficacia de sistemas de recursos hidráulicos. Em-<br />
pleando conceptos tradicionales del fracaso y de la eficacia, todas<br />
las instalaciones de recursos de agua se han concebido con datos de<br />
flujo inadecuados, con grado de insuficiencia como sola variación<br />
entre ellas. El uso de simulacibn como modo de diseñar sistemas com-<br />
plejos de recursos de agua exige definición más riguroso de eficacia<br />
que mientras acepta la falta de datos de flujo mantiene sin embargo<br />
un medio de comparar la eficacia de un proyeqto con otro y en térmi-<br />
nos de su frecuencia de ella y en grado de su fracaso. Un concepto<br />
de esos -la frecuencia de poTcentaje cumulativo- se ha empleado en<br />
el disefio hidrológico Ifel depósito del estuario del Washff, serie de<br />
depÖs*itos de reserva a bomba en el sudeste de Inglaterra,
384<br />
INTRODUCTION<br />
The analysis and study <strong>of</strong> water resource systems can be conveniently<br />
subdivided into three stages, planning, design and operational.<br />
Each stage has its own specific flow data requirements and what maJr be<br />
adequate for one stage could well be inadequate for another.<br />
planning stage, a large number <strong>of</strong> possible combin&t&ons <strong>of</strong> sources are<br />
evaluated but not in detail: the requirement for hydrological data is<br />
minbal, since the yields <strong>of</strong> individual sources need o<strong>nl</strong>y be determined<br />
approximately. The most promising combinations <strong>of</strong> sources are subsequently<br />
examined in considerably more detail at the design stage.<br />
This stage is concerned <strong>with</strong> aspects such as frequency, probability and<br />
reliability all <strong>of</strong> which make considerable demands in terms <strong>of</strong> data<br />
quantity and quality. The requirement is for long period <strong>of</strong> flow<br />
records which may have a time increment <strong>of</strong> a day or more.<br />
At the<br />
In the oper-<br />
ational staze, the data requirement emphasis changes from long-term<br />
flow records to shorter but more detailed flow records perhaps even on<br />
an hourly basis.<br />
This paper is concerned <strong>with</strong> the relationship between the assessment<br />
<strong>of</strong> reliability, the definition <strong>of</strong> failure and flow data inadequacy<br />
at the design stage. Flow data can be inadequate in many ways: it may<br />
be that there is no data or Rot enough data, or the wrong data has been<br />
collected. Data can be <strong>of</strong> inadequate quality or have too coarse a time<br />
increment between successive values. To sunmiarise, inadequate data is<br />
an occupational hazard to all those involved in the hydrological design<br />
<strong>of</strong> water-resource systems. However, <strong>with</strong> traditional concepts <strong>of</strong><br />
reliability and what constitutes a failure, the problem <strong>of</strong> flow data<br />
inadequacy will remain for a very long time.<br />
In the planning <strong>of</strong> water resources for England and Wales, many<br />
diverse types <strong>of</strong> sources such as pumped-storage reservoirs, multipurpose<br />
reservoirs, rivers, aquifers and estuarial storage are being<br />
considered. &ch proposed source is n? longer considered in isolation<br />
hut as part <strong>of</strong> a much larger water-resource system.<br />
stances the individual yield <strong>of</strong> the proposed source loses importance<br />
since it is the yield <strong>of</strong> the system as a whole that requires evaluation.<br />
The increase in the scale <strong>of</strong> the problem caused by consideration<br />
<strong>of</strong> a water-resource system as a whole has outdated many <strong>of</strong> the traditional<br />
techniques for analysing the performance <strong>of</strong> a resernoir: some <strong>of</strong><br />
the implicit assumptions have been made invalie by the complexity <strong>of</strong> .<br />
modern water-resource systems, other assumptions have never been valid.<br />
mHOD OF ANALYSIS<br />
In these circum-<br />
owing to the complexity <strong>of</strong> the water-resource systems currently<br />
envisaged and the lack <strong>of</strong> theoretical techniques cspable <strong>of</strong> analysing<br />
such systems, simulation is considered to be the o<strong>nl</strong>y viable method <strong>of</strong><br />
analysis. A simulation model <strong>of</strong> a proposed water-resource system can be<br />
constructed by joining appropriate component models <strong>of</strong> particular types
385<br />
<strong>of</strong> reservoirs iri an <strong>of</strong>der corresponding to the physical system.<br />
Examples are given in Fi$ures 1 and 2 <strong>of</strong> component models for a pumpedstorqe<br />
reservoir and a pumped aquifer. It should be appreciated that<br />
not all the links indicated in these models need be included since in<br />
the specific application some can be set to zero.<br />
The simulation is structured in a general form <strong>with</strong> physical constraints<br />
such as the capacity <strong>of</strong> the reservoir, maximum pumping capacity,<br />
minimum residual flows in rivers etc treated as input vaxiables. The<br />
model can then be used to find the frequency <strong>with</strong> which the system fails<br />
to meet the specified demands and the sensitivity to changes in any <strong>of</strong><br />
these or other input variables in terms <strong>of</strong> frequency <strong>of</strong> failing to meet<br />
specified iieiads. The relative importarice <strong>of</strong> each data ita! xc thus<br />
be determined and the effect <strong>of</strong> data inadequxy can be qusntirird i?i<br />
terms <strong>of</strong> confidence limits on the resulting reliable yield. LÅoFeovcr,<br />
since the w a ~ in which a water-resource system is managed will dfect<br />
the reliability <strong>of</strong> the system, different operating rules can be compared<br />
and evaluated.<br />
Since the design <strong>of</strong> the system is concerned <strong>with</strong> rare events,<br />
large amounts <strong>of</strong> historic or synthetic flow data have to be routed<br />
through the models. Consequently the component models have to be relatively<br />
simple to keep camputing costs down and therefore they are essentially<br />
accounting procedures <strong>with</strong> lags and attenuation built in.<br />
Given adequate data it is possible to include both conservative and<br />
degradable water quality parameters in the model. The build up <strong>of</strong><br />
pollutants in various parts <strong>of</strong> the system can be monitored in the seme<br />
w a ~ as the quantity <strong>of</strong> water and the performance <strong>of</strong> the system can be<br />
depicted as histograms <strong>of</strong> both quantity and quality <strong>of</strong> water (Figure 3).<br />
In this WEIJ the interactions between water quality and quantity can be<br />
investigated.<br />
BPPLICBTION<br />
The techniques described [i) are being used in the hydrological<br />
evaluation <strong>of</strong> the Wash Storage, a pumped-reservoir scheme in the estusry<br />
<strong>of</strong> the Great Ouse, a river in south-east England (Figure 4). The preliminary<br />
estimate for the total capital cost <strong>of</strong> the scñeme is<br />
2140 O00 O00 at 1971 prices. The work outlined here forms a small part<br />
<strong>of</strong> the e2 900 O00 feasibility study though much <strong>of</strong> it will have application<br />
even if estuary storage is rejected. A schematic diagram <strong>of</strong> the<br />
whole system is given in Figue 5 <strong>with</strong> symbols defined in Table 1. The<br />
complexity <strong>of</strong> the complete system has necessitated the division into<br />
three interlinked subsystem namely, the Welland and Nene, the Great<br />
Ouse and the Wash Storage. The first two subsystems define the potential<br />
input to the third.
3 86<br />
The Welland and Nene subsystem which comprise8 the right hand portion<br />
<strong>of</strong> Figure 5 is a model <strong>of</strong> a pumped-storage reservoir, %pingham (now under<br />
construction), in conjunction <strong>with</strong> a confined aquifer, the Lincolnshire<br />
Limestone.<br />
<strong>Water</strong> will be pumped into lbpingham from both the River<br />
Welland and River Bene when the flows axe in excess <strong>of</strong> specified minimum<br />
values. Rnpingham can be used for a variety <strong>of</strong> purposes including meeting<br />
direct-supply requirements as well as regulating the lower Welland to<br />
enable it to support downstream abstraction. Some <strong>of</strong> the water from<br />
hpinghm will be returned to the Nene aa effluent, upstream <strong>of</strong> the<br />
intake pumps for Ehpingham.<br />
<strong>Water</strong> from Rnpinghem will also be used to<br />
maintain the flow in the River Glen. The Lincolnshire Limestone is used<br />
mai<strong>nl</strong>y for direct-supply in conjunction <strong>with</strong> abstractions from the Welland<br />
but any spillage from the aquifer helps to maintain the flow in the Glen.<br />
The possibility <strong>of</strong> artificially recharging the aquifer from the lower<br />
Velland has been included.<br />
The Great Ouse subsystem comprises the left hand and upper centre<br />
portions <strong>of</strong> Figure 5. The model is a simulation <strong>of</strong> an existing pumpedstorage<br />
reservoir, Grafham <strong>Water</strong>, in association <strong>with</strong> an unconfined<br />
aquifer, the Great Ouse Chalk. Grafham <strong>Water</strong> is replenished by pumping<br />
water from two points on the Bedford Ouse, a tributary <strong>of</strong> the Great Ouse.<br />
Agairi, there is an element <strong>of</strong> recirculation since some <strong>of</strong> the water<br />
supplied direct to a demand centre is returned as effluent upstream <strong>of</strong><br />
the reservoir's intake pumps. The Great Ouse Chalk aquifer has been<br />
modelled as six interlinked unconfined aquifers. In a scheme shortly to<br />
be promoted all the sub-aquifers are to be used for direct-supply and<br />
river regulation. Obviously pumping water from an unconfined aquifer<br />
will affect the natural outflow from the aquifer to the tributary.<br />
Poreover, if the aquifer is drawn down, the possibility <strong>of</strong> seepage<br />
through the bed <strong>of</strong> the tributary exists. Both these effects have been<br />
incorporated in the model.<br />
The lower centre portion <strong>of</strong> Figure 5 is a schematic representation<br />
<strong>of</strong> the proposed first two stages <strong>of</strong> the Wash Storage which comprises the<br />
third subsystem. <strong>Water</strong> could be pumped from both the Great Ouse and the<br />
lower Nene.<br />
The possibility <strong>of</strong> having sea-water recirculation schemes<br />
on both the Great Ouse and lower Nene has been included. This enables the<br />
low-flow constraint at the tidal limit <strong>of</strong> each river to be zero.<br />
Sgnthetic flow data generation techniques [27 have been used for<br />
this invastigation. Currently the historic flow record on the River<br />
Nene has been used as the master series and all other subsidiary flow<br />
sequences have been obtained by regreseion on the logarithmic values <strong>of</strong><br />
flow. hproved multisite daily data generation techniques are being<br />
developed under contract o] and will be used when available. Prior to<br />
being used as the master series, the Nene record was corrected for all<br />
upstream abstractions and effluent returns to obtain the 'natural' flow<br />
series.
INADEQUACY OF FLOiV DATA<br />
387<br />
A simulation model such as that used in the hydro1oglc.d design<br />
<strong>of</strong> the T.3h Stor2.p rcyui.:>e., a coneiderable amount <strong>of</strong> information as<br />
input data. It is inevitable that some <strong>of</strong> this data will be inade-<br />
quate in one form or another. The usual case is where some inîorma-<br />
tion is available but in insufficient quantity to estimate input<br />
paxmeters reliably, m d for some parts <strong>of</strong> the system there is a<br />
complete absence o€ data. To amplify these problems specific ex-<br />
amples which have been encountered in the bdrological desi,m <strong>of</strong> the<br />
Wash Storage axe given together <strong>with</strong> the way in which they have been<br />
partly overcone.<br />
INADESUACY DUE TO HU DATA<br />
in modelling an unconfined aquifer such as the Great Ouse Chalk<br />
it is evident that when punping the aquifer for either water-supply<br />
or river regulation, the natural outflow from the aquifer to the<br />
river will decrease. However, pumping the aquifer will have no<br />
effect on the run-<strong>of</strong>f from the non-aquifer portion <strong>of</strong> the catchment.<br />
It is the combination <strong>of</strong> these two flow components that is measured<br />
by the downstream gauging station. In short, if the aquifer is to<br />
be developed by pumping, it is neaessaxy to have two inputs, the<br />
recharge to the aquifer and the run-<strong>of</strong>f from the remaining portion<br />
<strong>of</strong> the catchment when o<strong>nl</strong>y one measurement <strong>of</strong> the combined effect is<br />
available. No details on the natural recharge <strong>of</strong> the aquifer were<br />
known.<br />
The aasumption was made that the downstream flow comprised two<br />
flow recimes, a slow response from the aquifer itself and a fast<br />
response from the remainder <strong>of</strong> the catchment. Having separated oyt<br />
the base flow component, the overall 'proportion <strong>of</strong> base flow to<br />
surface flow for the period <strong>of</strong> historic record was ascertained. The<br />
surface flow component alone was cross-correilated <strong>with</strong> the corresponding<br />
historic flow data for the master station on the River Nene. The<br />
cross-correlation was performed on the logarithmic flow values which<br />
gives weighting to the low flows and avoids the difficulty caused by<br />
zero flows. This'relationship was then used to generate the surface<br />
flow component direct. The base flow component could not be treated<br />
in a similar manner since this was a measure <strong>of</strong> the output from the<br />
aquifer rather than the input.<br />
It was assumed that the temporal distribution <strong>of</strong> the surface<br />
flow component was indicative <strong>of</strong> the periods when natural recharge<br />
occurred. Therefore the surface flow component was scaled by the<br />
overall ratio <strong>of</strong> base flow to surface flor and used as input to the
388<br />
recharge process. This data stream was attenuated by an exponential<br />
delay function to simulate porous-media flow prior to adding the<br />
percolate to the water already in storage. The delay induced by this<br />
process was made equal to the observed mean delay between rainfall<br />
ind the resulting maximum well levels.<br />
The aquifer above the threshold constraint defining when channel<br />
loss occurred, was modelled as a single linear storage. Consequently<br />
the natural outflow from the aquifer to the river is proportional to<br />
the mount <strong>of</strong> water in storage, the storage coefficient being derived<br />
from the base flow recession. In this W¿QJ the effect <strong>of</strong> pumping the<br />
aquifer was to reduce the amount <strong>of</strong> water in storage thereby reducing<br />
the natural outflow from the aquifer <strong>with</strong>out interfering <strong>with</strong> the<br />
surf ace flow component.<br />
INADEQUACY DUE TO INJCOIJPLEZ'E MTA<br />
Although a historic flow record was available close to the proposed<br />
abstraction point on the Ely Ouse, it would have been <strong>of</strong> little<br />
use for the hydrological design <strong>of</strong> the Wash Storage even if it had<br />
'been an accurate flow record. The river acts as a source <strong>of</strong> supply to<br />
both industrial and agricultural consumers as well ag a disposal<br />
system for treated effluents. No detailed records have been kept <strong>of</strong><br />
abstractions or returns and consequently the record can not be adjusted<br />
to obtain natural flows. Ideally it would have been fax simpler to<br />
have used the natural flow record at this station and account for the<br />
net changes as time progressed rather than to have to construct a<br />
simulation model <strong>of</strong> the entire river basin. In this specific case,<br />
however, development <strong>of</strong> the chalk aquifer necessitated a simulation <strong>of</strong><br />
the entire basin. Fortunately better quality flow records existed on<br />
ail <strong>of</strong> the important tributaries which were all upstream <strong>of</strong> the.major<br />
industrial and agricultural demands.<br />
INADXQUACY DUX TO INSUFFICIENT DATA<br />
Traditionally the criterion for assessing the reliability <strong>of</strong> a<br />
reservoir system has been the mean recurrence interval between failures.<br />
This concept <strong>of</strong> return period has generally been defined quantitatively<br />
in one <strong>of</strong> two ways, namely, a once in T year event where T is typically<br />
50 or 100 yeam or in terms <strong>of</strong> probability where it is said that there<br />
is a 100 per cent chance <strong>of</strong> failure occurring in any one year. Assum-<br />
T<br />
ing that reservoir failures axe rare events and that the time between<br />
failures has an exponential distribution, these two definitions are
equivalent and the probability <strong>of</strong> m failures <strong>with</strong>in n years is given<br />
by :<br />
-0<br />
phn> = e- Mrn<br />
n!<br />
consequently there is a 37 per cent chance <strong>of</strong> there not being a once<br />
in T year event in any T year period <strong>of</strong> record.<br />
Even in the recent past attempts have been made to isolate low<br />
flow events <strong>with</strong> return periods <strong>of</strong> 50 or 100 years from a short<br />
period <strong>of</strong> historic flow data. The usual lengths <strong>of</strong> these records<br />
typically range from 20 to 50 years. These lengths <strong>of</strong> record axe<br />
totally inadequate for isolating such rare events and consequently<br />
very little codidence can be placed in the results obtained. For<br />
exmple, to be 9% certain that an estimate <strong>of</strong> return period is<br />
<strong>with</strong>in 2 10 years <strong>of</strong> a 50 yeas return period would require 2000<br />
years <strong>of</strong> data and to be 9@ certain that the estimate was <strong>with</strong>in<br />
f 5 years would require no less than 11,000 years <strong>of</strong> data. bioreover,<br />
even to be 9% certain that the return period was in the<br />
r,mge <strong>of</strong> 50 years to 100 years would require 1600 years <strong>of</strong> data.<br />
These data requirements show the absurdity <strong>of</strong> tho present reliability<br />
criterion. It infers that all water-resource systems are<br />
designed on inadequnte data <strong>with</strong> o<strong>nl</strong>y the degree <strong>of</strong> inadequacy<br />
varying between schemes.<br />
Even if a once in T yeas low flow sequence could be isolated,<br />
there is no guarantee that this would produce a once in T year<br />
failure rate in a reservoir system designed to <strong>with</strong>stand such an<br />
event. Shortkves in water supply are not independent events due<br />
to the effect <strong>of</strong> storage. If a reservoir has failed one year and<br />
has not recovered it is more likely to fail in the follovnng ye:=<br />
than if it had been full at the start <strong>of</strong> the year. Consequentlg<br />
reservoir failures come in groups rather than completely random<br />
sequences and an event less severe than a once in T year flow<br />
sequence closely following on a similar loa-flow sequence could<br />
ceuse the system to fail. The occurrence pattern <strong>of</strong> these extreme<br />
low-flow events is therefore as important as their severity and<br />
individual events should not be taken from the historic record and<br />
used in isolation when designing a reservoir system. Unfortunate-<br />
ly the historic flow record provides just one realisation <strong>of</strong> the<br />
occurrence pattern at a given point and the probability <strong>of</strong> the<br />
historic sequence being repeated in the future i3 infinitesimal.<br />
Consequently even if the whole historic record were used and even<br />
if it contained what were considered to be extreme events there is<br />
no guarantee that this would enable a realistic prediction <strong>of</strong> the<br />
reservoir's reliability to be made.<br />
389
390<br />
The difficulty <strong>of</strong> determining 'rare1 events from 'short' data<br />
cannot be overcome. Recently the use <strong>of</strong> synthetic data generation has<br />
alleviated some <strong>of</strong> the problems. The historic flow &ta is used to<br />
estimate the parent population by modelling statistical chaxacteristics<br />
and many synthetic samples can be generated each <strong>of</strong> which is<br />
equally as likely to occur in the future as the historic record was to<br />
have occurred in the past. In this way vaxious occurrence patterns<br />
may be obtained and long perio&<strong>of</strong> synthetic data can be ?%gzìxdd as<br />
producing a larger sample from the infinite population <strong>of</strong> possible<br />
flows than the historic record affords. With the larger sample there<br />
is a. correspondingly increased chance <strong>of</strong> the record containing (rare1<br />
flow events providing a 'true' model has been used. However, the<br />
synthetic data can o<strong>nl</strong>y be as representative <strong>of</strong> the parent population<br />
as the historic data. If an untypical historic record has been used<br />
or there is insufficient data for the reliable estimation <strong>of</strong> node1<br />
parameters then little confidence can be placed on the generated<br />
sequences and in particulm on inferences about extremes <strong>with</strong>in the<br />
data.<br />
in looking for a suitable design criterion we must accept the<br />
lack <strong>of</strong> data and use a criterion that can be estimated <strong>with</strong> more<br />
confidence from the same &ta. Rather than defining failure as a<br />
reservoir or aquifer becoming empty, an event which would understandably<br />
be accepted o<strong>nl</strong>y raxely, the introduction OP rationing <strong>of</strong><br />
water supplies can be used as the definition <strong>of</strong> failure. This would<br />
occw when o<strong>nl</strong>y a certain amount <strong>of</strong> water remained in store and would<br />
obviously be tolerated more frequently. In practice a reservoir<br />
would not be used at normal demand until it was empty. Instead a<br />
level <strong>of</strong> storage would be reached below,which the supply would be<br />
rationed. If rationing could be accepted, say, every twenty year3<br />
then this would be a more frequent event and one has a correspondingly<br />
increased confidence in the design.<br />
Another shortcoming <strong>of</strong> the return period criterion is that it<br />
gives no indication <strong>of</strong> the magnitude <strong>of</strong> the shortage. For example<br />
in figure 6 the reservoir failed o<strong>nl</strong>y once in the first case whereas<br />
in the second case it failed twice. Therefore although the first case<br />
is clearly the more severe condition the concept <strong>of</strong> return period<br />
indicates the second is worse as it has twice as many shortages.<br />
This is o<strong>nl</strong>y.to illustrate a point but in practice reservoir failures<br />
do group together which poses the problem <strong>of</strong> deciding whether such<br />
a series should be consideyed as a single failure or a number <strong>of</strong><br />
individual failures. Therefore return period is not ideally suited<br />
to describe the pattern in which reservoir shortages occur. An alternative<br />
criterion i~ required which must be a measure <strong>of</strong> both the<br />
frequency and magnitude <strong>of</strong> failures. It must be flexible enough to<br />
allow for a variable definition <strong>of</strong> failure (as the introduction <strong>of</strong><br />
rationing is somewhat subjective) and it must be simple to calculate.
3 91<br />
The concept <strong>of</strong> cumulative percentage frequency (CPF) <strong>of</strong> a<br />
.specified failure level being reached meets these requirements.<br />
CPF measures the percentage <strong>of</strong> time that the reservoir is at or<br />
below a spec.ified storage. It will not however differentiate<br />
between sw one &y <strong>of</strong> failure every year or a one hundred day<br />
failure every hundred years. Fibwe 6 shoirs that the first case<br />
would have a CPF <strong>of</strong> and the second 100 (x + y1 which<br />
V V<br />
'correctly assigns the less severe shortage to the latter.<br />
The CPF value for any reservoir state can easily be obteined<br />
from the storage histopans already referred to (Figure 3). By<br />
rerunning the model <strong>with</strong> different demands a graph showing the<br />
CPF <strong>of</strong> vmious storage levels for different demands can be con-<br />
structed (Fibwe 7). Given a reservoir level at which rationing<br />
would be introduced the relationship between quantity <strong>of</strong> water<br />
and reliability can be obtained. In this way the effect <strong>of</strong> dif-<br />
ferent policies on reliability can be easily determined in toms<br />
<strong>of</strong> yield and the definition <strong>of</strong> failure does not need to be pre-<br />
judged.<br />
CONCLUSION<br />
Hydrological design criteria are based on rare events and<br />
there will always be some degree <strong>of</strong> inadequacy in flow data.<br />
Synthetic flow àata is o<strong>nl</strong>y a partial solution because the<br />
techniques are dependent upon the assumption that the historic<br />
sample is representative <strong>of</strong> the infinite popultxtion <strong>of</strong> flows.<br />
Even then, the historic data will o<strong>nl</strong>y contain limited infoma-<br />
tion on long-term periodicities and persistencics which are<br />
important when examining rare events.'<br />
Where no flow information is available there seems to be<br />
little alternative to improvisation. This inay take the form <strong>of</strong><br />
transposition <strong>of</strong> data, scaling flow data or estiinating data<br />
indirectly as in the case illustrated. Any improvisation should<br />
always be treated <strong>with</strong> suspicion and attempts made to verify it<br />
if possible, Failing this, simulation can be used, at a cost,<br />
to ascertain the sensitivity <strong>of</strong> the system's performance to this<br />
input. If the outcome is insensitive to that specific input there<br />
is little cause for concern. If on the other hand the outcome is<br />
sensitive to that input,at least it shows where the àata collection<br />
effort should be concentrated.<br />
Another way <strong>of</strong> improving the confidence in the prediction <strong>of</strong><br />
reliability, given a limited amount <strong>of</strong> flow data, is to choose a<br />
better design criterion by changing the definition <strong>of</strong> failure.
392<br />
Hence the proposal is made that the introduction <strong>of</strong> rationing should<br />
be used as the definition <strong>of</strong> failure since this would be tolerated<br />
more frequently than the complete emptyiw <strong>of</strong> the reservoir. Nore-<br />
over, by changing the concept <strong>of</strong> reliability to one which is both a<br />
measuce <strong>of</strong> frequency and magnitude <strong>of</strong> failure rather than just the<br />
frequency <strong>of</strong> failure enables two schemes to be compared objectively<br />
even :?hen based upon a small amount <strong>of</strong> flow data. Thus the cam-<br />
bination <strong>of</strong> synthetic flow data generation, introduction Qf ration-<br />
ing au the definition <strong>of</strong> failure and cumulativa percentage frequency<br />
as a masure <strong>of</strong> reliability helps to overcorce the problem <strong>of</strong><br />
inadequate flow data.<br />
ACiO-f?LEIlc~<br />
The authors thank their Director, Sir Norman Bowtree, for<br />
permission to publish this paper in which the views expressed are<br />
those <strong>of</strong> the authors and not necessarily those <strong>of</strong> the Hater <strong>Resources</strong><br />
Board.<br />
1. Jamieson, D.G., Radford, P.J. and Sexton, J.R. (1973).<br />
The Hydrological design <strong>of</strong> water-resource systems.<br />
<strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Boosd. (To be published)<br />
2. Bloomer, R.J.G.B. and Sexton, J.R. (1972). The<br />
generation <strong>of</strong> synthetic river flow data. <strong>Water</strong> Resouroes<br />
Boad publication No. 15.<br />
3. Weiss, G. (1973). Shot noise models for synthetic<br />
generation <strong>of</strong> multisite àaily streamflow data. Symposium<br />
on Desi,v <strong>of</strong> <strong>Water</strong> Resouxces Project <strong>with</strong> <strong>Inadequate</strong> Data,<br />
Uadrid.
TâBLE 1<br />
LIST Q SYNBOLS ASSOCIATZD WITH FIGURE 5<br />
D hand centre<br />
E Effluent retumi<br />
R Naturd recharge<br />
AR Artificial recharge<br />
S Seepage or spill-<br />
I Natural inflow<br />
L "ranslational delay<br />
P Precipitation<br />
V Evaporation<br />
t b P<br />
tc- AtiPinimum-flow constraint<br />
3 93
394<br />
a<br />
II minimum flow constraint<br />
FLOW<br />
II minimum flow constraint<br />
A<br />
SECOND RIVER FLOW - -<br />
FIGURE 1 Component Model <strong>of</strong> a Pumped-Storage Reservoir<br />
FIGURE 2 Component Model <strong>of</strong> a Pumped Aquifer
3 95<br />
NUMBER OF DAYS RESERVOIR AT THAT STORAGE<br />
i<br />
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398
I-<br />
3 99
MAXIMUM INFORMATION OBTAINABLE FROM INADEQUATE DESIGN DATA:<br />
FROM MULTïVARIATE TO BAYESIAN METHODS<br />
ABSTRACT<br />
Jean Weber1, Chester C.Kisie12 and Lucien Duckstein2<br />
An overniew is given <strong>of</strong> some theoretical and empirical issues<br />
involved in designing water pesource projects in the face <strong>of</strong> inade-<br />
quate data. The primary focus is on multivariate analysis <strong>of</strong> samples<br />
whose properties are not consistent <strong>with</strong> the assumptions <strong>of</strong> the<br />
analysis, The multivariate models discussed include multiple linear<br />
regression, discriminant functions, canonical correlation, principal<br />
components, and factor and cluster analysis. Each <strong>of</strong> these models<br />
is discussed in terms <strong>of</strong> its assumptions, data requirements and<br />
applications in hydrologic research. The Bayesian approach to para-<br />
meter estimation and decision making is introduced for the purpose<br />
<strong>of</strong> considering both the uncertainty due to inadequate data and<br />
economic losses.<br />
RESUME<br />
Les auteurs exposent queJques ccFsidérations générales, théo-<br />
riques et empiriques, sur 1'élaboratio.i des projets d'am€nagement<br />
des eaux quand on se trouve en prdsence de donnges insuffisantes.<br />
Ils mettent l'accent sur les problèmes que pose l'analyse multiva-<br />
ride lorsque les échantillons qui lui sont soumis ne répondent pas<br />
aux hypotheses de base de cette analyse. Les modèles multivariés<br />
dont il est question comprennent: les régressio?s linéaires, l'ana-<br />
lyse discriminatoire (variable dependante discrete), la corrélation<br />
canonique, les composantes principales, l'analyse factorielle et<br />
l'analyse groypde. Chacun de ces modeles est examiné sous l'angle<br />
de ses hypotheses de base, des données qu'exige sa mise en oeuvre<br />
et de ses applications en recherche hydrologique. L'approche bayé-<br />
sienne de liestirnation das paramètres et de la décìsion, permet<br />
d'introduire a la fois l'incertitude due à l'insuffisance des données<br />
et ses conséquences économiques.<br />
lpr<strong>of</strong>essor, Department <strong>of</strong> Management, University <strong>of</strong> Arizona, Tucson,<br />
Arizona 85721.<br />
2Pr<strong>of</strong>essors, Department <strong>of</strong> Systems and Industrial Engineering and<br />
Department <strong>of</strong> <strong>Hydrology</strong> and <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong>, University <strong>of</strong> Arizona,<br />
Tucson, Arizona 85721.
402<br />
1 .O Introduction-<br />
This DaDer considers L.e problem o .-recastinq o hvdroloaic variables for<br />
water resoke projects when the data-are inadequati, thät is, when there is a<br />
mismatch between data and model. This mismatch is considered in terms <strong>of</strong> multivariate<br />
methods <strong>of</strong> data analysis. Mismatch implies a discrepancy between model<br />
structure and structure suggested by the data and/or data inadequacy in relation<br />
to model requirements. Several types <strong>of</strong> data inadequacies are considered in the<br />
context <strong>of</strong> models frequently used in hydrologic research. The discussion is from<br />
two related points <strong>of</strong> view; it considers limitations <strong>of</strong> a model in terms <strong>of</strong> the<br />
assumptions on which it is based and sensitivity <strong>of</strong> the predictions <strong>of</strong> a model to<br />
data inadequacies <strong>of</strong> various types. These considerations are inextricably related<br />
since the more restrictive the assumptions <strong>of</strong> a model are, the more likely<br />
it is that data obtained are inadequate for estimating the parameters <strong>of</strong> the model.<br />
Uncertain input information for the design <strong>of</strong> water resource systems is the<br />
result <strong>of</strong> the inability <strong>of</strong> hydrologists to model large basins in substantial detail<br />
as projected by Freeze (1972) and a result <strong>of</strong> the "curse" <strong>of</strong> small samples in<br />
developing space-time series models and probability density models <strong>of</strong> flow, precipitation,<br />
temperature and evapotranspiration. Problems <strong>of</strong> extending data at a<br />
design site and to ungaged sites are <strong>of</strong> long standing concern.<br />
the implications <strong>of</strong> assumptions in mu1 tivariate statistical methods applied to<br />
these problems is important to subsequent steps <strong>of</strong> coping <strong>with</strong> the consequent<br />
assumptions and <strong>of</strong>fering alternatives and decision strategies.<br />
1.1 Model Building and Its Assumptions<br />
An awareness-<strong>of</strong><br />
When data such as streamflow are obtained, it is almost always for the ulti-<br />
mate purpose <strong>of</strong> designing or operating a structure (bridge opening, dam, drainage<br />
structure); one intermediate step consists <strong>of</strong> predicting or forecasting future<br />
events (floods or droughts) using a model. The sequence <strong>of</strong> events in accumulation<br />
<strong>of</strong> knowledge for predictions can be characterized as follows: some knowledge is<br />
obtained by observations, a preliminary theory or hypothesis (for example, log<br />
normal probability density function (pdf) <strong>of</strong> flow) is formulated on the basis <strong>of</strong><br />
these observations, additional data are obtained perhaps more systematically, the<br />
theory or hy othesis is revised and/or refined (for example, log Pearson type III<br />
pdf <strong>of</strong> flews!, additional data are obtained, and so forth. As this interaction<br />
between theory and data proceeds, the theory becomes more reproducible and per-<br />
haps less general and the data required for its verification or modification also<br />
become increasingly accurate, so that the design process may be started <strong>with</strong>out<br />
having to use large safety factors to compensate for uncertainty.<br />
At some point, after accumulation <strong>of</strong> sufficient supporting data, a theory or<br />
hypothesis is generally accepted and, u<strong>nl</strong>ess subsequent theory and/or obser-<br />
vations strongly indicate otherwise, the theory is used for prediction <strong>of</strong> a design<br />
quantity such as the 50-year flood Q(50). By this time the theory is frequently<br />
referred to as a model. As a theory becomes generally accepted, even tentatively,<br />
the purpose <strong>of</strong> obtaining data gradually shifts; data are used less as a basis for<br />
reformulating theory and more as a basis for estimating the parameters <strong>of</strong> a model<br />
whose form has been determined, at least in most respects. Unfortunately. it is<br />
frequently tempting to accept a theory and corresponding model prematuwly,
especially if the urgency <strong>of</strong> making predictions or forecasts is compelling (for<br />
example, in a decision to be made at once on the building <strong>of</strong> flood control works,<br />
a water supply reservoir, or hydroelectric power dam).<br />
Premature acceptance <strong>of</strong> a model can have very serious consequences, particularly<br />
since the model is likely to be idealized to the point <strong>of</strong> being unrealistic<br />
or to hold o<strong>nl</strong>y under very restricted conditions, such as time invariance <strong>of</strong> a<br />
watershed (Foge1 et al., 1971). Any model is an oversimplification <strong>of</strong> reality.<br />
This is inevitable, because the purpose <strong>of</strong> theory is to simplify reality, which<br />
is enormously complicated, by abstracting from it those elements that explain a<br />
large proportion <strong>of</strong> the observed phenomena. ' <strong>Water</strong>shed models certai<strong>nl</strong>y are in<br />
this cateogry. Acceptance <strong>of</strong> a model thus involves a compromise between realism<br />
(e.g., a distributed model involving all details <strong>of</strong> the water cycle) and simplicity,<br />
represented by a lumped model. In economics and behavioral science, the<br />
predictions <strong>of</strong> a theory or model are said to be appropriate, ceteris paribus,<br />
that is, other things being equal (not varying). Under controlled laboratory<br />
conditions extraneous variation can be minimized; in the real world, it generally<br />
cannot. Thus , in using a rainfall-run<strong>of</strong>f model for forecasting streamflow,<br />
for example, it is important to know how robust the model is to its assumptions,<br />
including the ceteris paribus assumption which, for example, precludes urbani- .<br />
zation. That is, it is important to know whether minor perturbations in the conditions<br />
under which a model is applied have relatively small or relatively large<br />
effects on its predictions. Clearly, if the predictions <strong>of</strong> a watershed model are<br />
sensitive to changes in a variable, this variable should be included in the model.<br />
Unfortunately, a model developed for one set <strong>of</strong> conditions is frequently used<br />
under quite different conditions <strong>with</strong>out consideration <strong>of</strong> the inadequacies <strong>of</strong> the<br />
data obtained under those conditions. A linear rainfall-run<strong>of</strong>f model that has<br />
been shown to yield a correct design <strong>of</strong> a culvert draining 50 km2 cannot be extrapolated<br />
to a 500 km2 watershed. Here the predictions <strong>of</strong> the model may be quite<br />
erroneous.<br />
One <strong>of</strong> the major difficulties in choosing and using models for decisionmaking<br />
in hydrology or other engineering design is the mismatch between available<br />
models and available data. The implications <strong>of</strong> the mismatch are not clearly<br />
understood. Most <strong>of</strong> the analytic derivations <strong>of</strong> the properties <strong>of</strong> deterministic<br />
and statistical models (for example, sampling distributions <strong>of</strong> estimators , tests<br />
<strong>of</strong> significance, standard errors <strong>of</strong> estimates and predictions, and so forth) are<br />
based on assumptions that are almost always violated in applications. These<br />
assumptions include linearity in the parameters <strong>of</strong> the system and <strong>of</strong> estimation<br />
equations, normality <strong>of</strong> population distributions, independent random sampling,<br />
large samples (for applicability <strong>of</strong> asymptotic results) and a variety <strong>of</strong> assumptions<br />
concerning the covariance or correlation structure <strong>of</strong> multivariate observations<br />
and/or their errors. In most applications at least one <strong>of</strong> the assumptions<br />
<strong>of</strong> the model is violated; the relevant concern should thus not be <strong>with</strong><br />
the properties <strong>of</strong> the model when its assumptions are satisfied, but should be<br />
<strong>with</strong> the properties <strong>of</strong> the model when its assumptions are violated in various ways<br />
and to various extents. The research in this area is not nearly sufficient to<br />
provide practical guidelines (Dhrymes et al., 1972).<br />
Specific assumptions and their violations are discussed in the next sections<br />
for several models. In addition to inadequacy <strong>with</strong> respect to these assumptions<br />
data may be inadequate in several more general respects including sample size,<br />
missing observations, measurement errors , secondary variables.<br />
403
404<br />
These types <strong>of</strong> data inadequacy occur, for example, in the method <strong>of</strong> regionalization<br />
used by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Assume that a stream flw characteristic, say the 50-year flood Q(50), is needed at an ungaged site for<br />
design purposes. Regionalization may be used to calculate Q(50) in those cases<br />
for which a data collection network for the region has been in operation for a<br />
certain time. One method <strong>of</strong> regionalization, used by the USGS, relies on re-<br />
gression analysis (Thomas and Benson, 1970).<br />
characteristic Q(50) is regressed upon basin characteristics, such as basin area,<br />
precipitation, channel slope, elevation, forest cover and soil index. Then,<br />
given the basin characteristics <strong>of</strong> the ungaged design site, the regression equat-<br />
ion is used to predict Q(50) for that site.<br />
For most regional data collection networks, many sites have record length <strong>of</strong><br />
the order <strong>of</strong> 20 years or less; small sample bias thus is quite substantial, so<br />
that distributions other than the normal distributions should be used to compute<br />
the logarithm <strong>of</strong> the flow Q(50); see Metler (1972). The basic reason for using a<br />
regional regression is that data are missing in space at the design location and<br />
large scale physically based models <strong>of</strong> combinations <strong>of</strong> river basins are non-exis-<br />
tent to help in augmenting the data. Although calibration curves <strong>of</strong> flow veysus<br />
gage height are periodically recalculated, there are difficulties associated <strong>with</strong><br />
sediment flows and <strong>with</strong> recording <strong>of</strong> flow data. All the variables entering the<br />
regression equation constitute by definition secondary data (primary data is the<br />
flow itself).<br />
2.0 Multivariate Models and Data Inadequacies<br />
The follwing sections concern multivariate models frequently used in<br />
hydrologic research and focus on model limi tations arising from inadequate data.<br />
The multivariate models discussed include multiple regression, discriminant<br />
functions, canonical correlation, principal components ,:and' factor and cluster<br />
analyses. Each <strong>of</strong> these multivariate models, <strong>with</strong> its assumptions, data require-<br />
ments and applications, is discussed in the following sections. Primary refere-<br />
nces on these models are Anderson (1958),'Christ, C1966), Dem ster (1969) Dhr mes<br />
(1970 and 1972), Harmon (1967), Johnston (19631, benta (1971!, Morrison (19671,<br />
Press (1972), Tryon (1970), Zellner (1971).<br />
2.1 Multivariate Linear Regression<br />
First, the desired streamflow<br />
The purpose <strong>of</strong> multivariate linear regression analysis is to obtain an<br />
equation -%-for predicting the value <strong>of</strong> a dependent variable 1 as a linear<br />
function <strong>of</strong> a vector <strong>of</strong> k independent variables &=[Xi ,. . , Xk]. The criterion<br />
for obtaining the vector k=[bi, . , &] is that the sum <strong>of</strong> squared errors<br />
(y-@) - '(Y-Xi) be minimized.<br />
Linëarregression and analysis <strong>of</strong> variance, which can be viewed as a special<br />
case <strong>of</strong> linear regression, are the o<strong>nl</strong>y multivariate models for which there has<br />
been considerable investigation <strong>of</strong> the effects <strong>of</strong> violation <strong>of</strong> the assumptions.<br />
The assumptions. <strong>of</strong> the multivariate linear regression model ~=XB+E can be stated<br />
as follows: E sN(0,~) where c=$I is the covariance matrix <strong>of</strong>the multinomial<br />
(N) population, & Ts non-stocFastTc, and has rank k
405<br />
The number <strong>of</strong> observations is n, so 1 is n x 1, X is n x k, is k x 1 and E is<br />
n x 1. Thus the ässumptions are linearity, normality <strong>of</strong> errors, serial indëpen-<br />
dence <strong>of</strong> errors, nonstochastic independent variables, and an observation matrix<br />
<strong>of</strong> full rank <strong>with</strong> the nunber <strong>of</strong> independent variables less than the number <strong>of</strong><br />
observations.<br />
The assumptions required for estimating a model are generally much weaker<br />
than the assumptions required for inferences concerning the estimates. In<br />
particular, normality assumptions are usually required for inference but not<br />
for estimation (say <strong>of</strong> the 6's). This is the case for multivariate regression.<br />
Since estimates are <strong>of</strong> little use <strong>with</strong>out knowledge <strong>of</strong> their distributional<br />
properties, the assumptions stated for mu1 tivariate linear regression and for<br />
models discussed subsequently are those required for standard tests <strong>of</strong> significance<br />
and confidence intervals.<br />
The effects <strong>of</strong> violating the various assumptions <strong>of</strong> multivariate linear regression<br />
are summarized in Table 1; also included in the table are procedures<br />
for detecting violations <strong>of</strong> assumptions and proposed al ternatives for remedying<br />
detected violations.<br />
2.2 Canoni cal Corre1 ati on<br />
The purpose <strong>of</strong> canonical correlation analysis is to study linear relationships<br />
between two sets <strong>of</strong> variables l'=[Yi ,. . ,Y,] and L'=[XI ,. . ,Xq]. Peck<br />
(1972) uses the analysis to determine whether 12 meteorological parameters (like<br />
vorticity, vertical velocity, wind speed at different elevations and from various<br />
directions, temperature differences, etc.) are sufficient to predict variations<br />
in orographic winter precipitation patterns <strong>with</strong>out the need for storm typing.<br />
Nimnannit (1969) uses the technique to relate spring run<strong>of</strong>f at a set <strong>of</strong> stations<br />
in the target region (where clouds are seeded) to run<strong>of</strong>f at a set <strong>of</strong> stations in<br />
the control region (no seeding); the urpose is to assess the effectiveness <strong>of</strong><br />
weather modification. Torranin (19725 investigates the potential <strong>of</strong> the method<br />
for (1) forecast <strong>of</strong> monthly precipitation <strong>of</strong> three large areas <strong>of</strong> the U.S. west<br />
coast and (2) forecast <strong>of</strong> seasonal snowmelt ruir<strong>of</strong>f for three gaging stations in<br />
the Flathead River Basin in Montana. The applications in hydrology have been<br />
very few in nunber.<br />
The analysis obtains vectors and such that the correlation between &'Yand<br />
b'& given by<br />
a'YX'b<br />
. ---<br />
r =<br />
Ja'Y 'Y a b 'X 'Xb<br />
------<br />
is maximized, subject to the normalizing conditions C'L'Y~ = 1 = d'&'Xb.<br />
Subsequent vectors are obtained such that for each successive vector %e canonical<br />
correlation is maximized subject to normalizing conditions and the condition <strong>of</strong><br />
independence <strong>with</strong> respect to previous vectors.<br />
The number <strong>of</strong> canonical correlations between r=[Yl,. . .,Y,] and X'=[Xi,. . ,Xq]<br />
is min !p.q), although in practice usually o<strong>nl</strong>y the first few canonic3 correlates<br />
are <strong>of</strong> interest. For the special case when either or is scalar, that is, consists<br />
<strong>of</strong> o<strong>nl</strong>y one element, canonical correlation is equivalent to multiple correlation.<br />
Except in this special case, canonical eorretatim analysis is not useful
406<br />
for prediction but is <strong>of</strong> value o<strong>nl</strong>y to aid in formulating a modez; this is in<br />
contrast to hydrologic uses mentioned above.<br />
Under the assumption that Y' and X' are jointly normally distributed, the<br />
joint significance <strong>of</strong> sets <strong>of</strong> cänonicar correlations can be tested using a likelihood<br />
ratio statistic. Unfortunately, the exact distribution <strong>of</strong> this statistic<br />
is complicated. An approximate large sample distribution has been obtained, but<br />
its convergence properties have not been studied. Thus , inferences concerning<br />
canonical correlations can appropriately be made o<strong>nl</strong>y on the basis <strong>of</strong> large<br />
samples from a multivariate normal population. No information is available concerning<br />
the nature and extent <strong>of</strong> the effects <strong>of</strong> violations <strong>of</strong> the assumption <strong>of</strong><br />
normality on the distribution <strong>of</strong> canonical dorrelations. Canonical correlation<br />
analysis thus appears <strong>of</strong> limited use for building models for eventual use in<br />
design <strong>with</strong> limited or inadequate data, in contrast <strong>with</strong> the hydroiogic uses<br />
mentioned above.<br />
2.3 - Discriminant Analysis<br />
The purpose <strong>of</strong> discriminant analysis differs from the purpose <strong>of</strong> multivariate<br />
linear regression analysis o<strong>nl</strong>y <strong>with</strong> respect to the type <strong>of</strong> prediction<br />
required for the dependent variable; in regression analysis the dependent variable<br />
is continuous and its value is to be predicted, while in discriminant analysis<br />
the dependent variable is discrete and its classification is to be predicted, for<br />
example, classification <strong>of</strong> watersheds.<br />
For the case <strong>of</strong> a dichotomous dependent variable, discriminant analysis can<br />
be computed as a special case <strong>of</strong> multiple regression analysis by using a dumy<br />
variable having values zero and one for the dependent variable and point biserial<br />
or biserial correlations between the dependent (dummy) and independent variables.<br />
The regression coefficients obtained by this type <strong>of</strong> analysis are proportional<br />
to the coefficients obtained by discriminant analysis.<br />
The follwing discussion concerns discriminant function analysis for a<br />
dichotomous dependent variable; the discussion can readily be extended to a<br />
dependent variable having more than two categories.<br />
Suppose that the independent variables &=[Xi ,. . ,Xk] are jointly normally<br />
distributed in each <strong>of</strong> two populations <strong>with</strong> mean vectors and g and connnon<br />
covariance matrix c <strong>of</strong> full rank k. If the prior probabilities <strong>of</strong> each population<br />
(pop) are equal ana the costs <strong>of</strong> misclassification are equal, then the probability<br />
<strong>of</strong> misclassification is minimized by using the following rule for classification<br />
<strong>of</strong> an observation g<br />
classify in pop 1 if ~'~+(~1+g)'~<br />
classify in pop 2 if K'L
are extremely complicated and its convergence properties have not been investi-<br />
gated. The affects <strong>of</strong> nonnormality <strong>of</strong> & are not known. Thus discrinimant function<br />
analysis is appropriate o<strong>nl</strong>y when x is normally distributed for each population<br />
and, in addition, its application to small samples is appropriate o<strong>nl</strong>y if the popu-<br />
lation mean vectors p~ and u and the comnon population covariance matrix are<br />
known.<br />
2.4 Principal Components<br />
The purpose <strong>of</strong> principal component analysis is to reduce the dimensionality<br />
<strong>of</strong> K=[Xl ,. . ,Xk] on the basis <strong>of</strong> dependence among the variables. For example.<br />
Fiering (1964), in his work on extending the single-site streamflow synthesis<br />
model to the multi-site case, applied the technique to a river basin <strong>with</strong> p gaging<br />
sites each site having an n-year record <strong>of</strong> annual flaws. Craddock (1965)<br />
applied the principal components method to monthly temperature series from 1680<br />
to 1963 for Central England. Other applications include increases in sediment<br />
discharge from 31 watersheds after two major floods in northern California<br />
(Anderson, 1970), sediment network design in California to insure accuracy <strong>of</strong><br />
predicted sediment yield (Wallis and Anderson, 1965), establishment <strong>of</strong> the uniformity<br />
<strong>of</strong> a hydrological region in Northland, New Zealand (Blake et al., 19-70),<br />
derivation <strong>of</strong> a water yield model from monthly run<strong>of</strong>f data (Snyder, 19631,<br />
identification <strong>of</strong> watershed factors from annual precipitation and run<strong>of</strong>f data <strong>of</strong><br />
watersheds in Coshocton , Ohio and Riesel, Texas (Diaz et al., 1968) , and shortrange<br />
forecasts <strong>of</strong> river stage or discharge on the river Kolyma, U.S.S.R.<br />
(Nechaeva and Mukhin, 1968).<br />
Mathematically, principal components analysis transforms the X's to a set<br />
<strong>of</strong> variables which are pairwise uncorrelated and <strong>of</strong> which the first has maximum<br />
possible variance, the second has maximum possible variance subject to the condition<br />
<strong>of</strong> being uncorrelated <strong>with</strong> the first, and so.forth. Principal components<br />
are estimated on the basis <strong>of</strong> a random sample <strong>of</strong> n observations as follows. The<br />
first principal component <strong>of</strong> & is denoted by Li=X a~ and g, is obtained such that<br />
Z'1L1=g'lX1h1 is maximized subject to the normaTizing constraint g'1&1=1.<br />
n e secona principal component Q=X- a is then obtained by determining 7uch<br />
that g&= am2X-'X9 is maximiaed sdject to the normalizing constraint ti23=1<br />
and the independence constraint &'I 3 = O. This procedure is repeated until the<br />
k principal components have been obtained.<br />
Large sample distributional prooerties <strong>of</strong> principal components have been<br />
obtained assuming that has a multivariate normal distribution <strong>with</strong> a covariance<br />
structure such that the covariance matrix c has k distinct characteristic roots.<br />
The effects <strong>of</strong> nonnormality and the covergence properties <strong>of</strong> the large sample<br />
distributions have not been investigated. Small sample distributional properties<br />
<strong>of</strong> principal components are not known; this again limits the use <strong>of</strong> this technique<br />
for the problems considered here.<br />
In many cases determination <strong>of</strong> the number <strong>of</strong> principal components needed to<br />
account for a reasonably large proportion <strong>of</strong> the variance in X is a matter <strong>of</strong><br />
judgment on the part <strong>of</strong> the investigator. Even if the investTgator is willing to<br />
make this decision on judgmental rather than statistical grounds and he concludes<br />
that a relatively small number <strong>of</strong> principal components seem to account for a<br />
reasonably large proportion <strong>of</strong> the variance in X, there is still the problem <strong>of</strong><br />
interpreting the principal components in terms <strong>of</strong> the original variables.
40 8<br />
hfortunately, pi.incipal components are not ahap interpretable and this hae<br />
been a deterrent to the extensive use <strong>of</strong> principal components in developing<br />
models.<br />
The use <strong>of</strong> principal components as independent variables in regression<br />
analysis has been suggested for the purpose <strong>of</strong> reducing the dimensionality <strong>of</strong> 5<br />
and thus avoiding problems <strong>with</strong> degrees <strong>of</strong> freedom and for the purpose <strong>of</strong><br />
circumventing the problems resulting from multicollinearity in X.<br />
applications see earlier references in this section as well as Singh's (1970a)<br />
application for predicting infiltration in an aspen-grassland watershed in<br />
southwestern Alberta, Canada. Al though principal components have been used as<br />
independent variables in regression analysis by numerous investigators, there is<br />
no generally accepted procedure for determining the number <strong>of</strong> principal com-<br />
ponents to be included in such analyses, nor is there agreement concerning whether<br />
it is acceptable to include one <strong>of</strong> more <strong>of</strong> the original x variables in addition<br />
to principal components.<br />
In spite <strong>of</strong> these shortcomings and limitations, a principal component<br />
analysis could possibly lead to a better use <strong>of</strong> insufficient or correlated data<br />
for hydrologic prediction. For example, it <strong>of</strong>fers an alternative to the method *<br />
<strong>of</strong> regionalization described elsewhere in this paper.<br />
2.5 Factor Analysis<br />
The purpose <strong>of</strong> factor analysis is to account for the covariance structure<br />
<strong>of</strong> a set <strong>of</strong> observable random variables in terms <strong>of</strong> a minimal number <strong>of</strong> unobservable<br />
or latent random variables referred to as factors. Among hydrologic<br />
applications have been those that sought decision rules that resulted in reduced<br />
inventory and survey costs for specific areas and problems, as in the study <strong>of</strong><br />
the chemistry <strong>of</strong> groundwater quality (Dawdy and Feth, 1967), in the design <strong>of</strong> a<br />
hydrologic condition survey in the TVA system (TVA, 1965), in parameter screening<br />
for watershed analysis (Shelton and Sewell, 1969), in predicting reservoir<br />
losses in cavernous terrain (Knisel, 1970) and in reducing a set <strong>of</strong> edaphic<br />
variables for a soil (Singh, 1970b).<br />
Factor analysis estimates the coefficients to be us& in expressing each<br />
response 'variable as a linear combination <strong>of</strong> a small number <strong>of</strong> unobservable<br />
common-factor variables and a (latent) specific variable. The common factors<br />
generate the covariances among the observable variables (responses) and each<br />
specific term contributes o<strong>nl</strong>y to the variance <strong>of</strong> the particular associated<br />
response variable. The coefficients <strong>of</strong> the common factors, estimated by factor<br />
analysis, are not required to be orthogonal and their matrix is unique o<strong>nl</strong>y up<br />
to multiplication by an orthogonal matrix. The observations are assumed to be<br />
a random sample from a multivariate normal population <strong>of</strong> full rank and the nunher<br />
<strong>of</strong> common factors is assumed to be known; both <strong>of</strong> these requirements limit the<br />
use <strong>of</strong> the technique in hydrology. The factor analysis model can be written as<br />
- X=<strong>nl</strong>+c where X is pxl, is pxm, 1 is mxl and is pxl, There are thus p<br />
response variames L'=[Xi, ..., X,], m common factor variables r=[Y, ..., Y,] and p<br />
specific-factor variables E'=[E~ ,. ..,E 1. The matrix<br />
For hydrologic<br />
gives the factor loadings<br />
where aij is the loading <strong>of</strong> the ith regponse variable on the je common factor<br />
variable. The conunon-factor variables l'=[Y1 ,. . .,Y,] are independently<br />
distributed N(0, 1). The specific-factor variables E'=[E~ ,. are independently
distributed N(0,q~~). Factor analysis estimates the elements <strong>of</strong> the loading<br />
matrix A. Maximuil: likelihood estimates can be obtained assuming that is<br />
multivariate normal <strong>with</strong> covariance matrix L=@&' <strong>of</strong> full rank p.<br />
Note that principal components can be viewed as a particular solution <strong>of</strong><br />
the problem <strong>of</strong> factoring the covariance matrix. The- principal components<br />
solution ignores variance associated <strong>with</strong> a specific response variable and requires<br />
the factors (components) to be orthogonal and <strong>of</strong> decreasing importance in<br />
accounting for (common) variance in the response variables.<br />
Assuming normality, the adequacy <strong>of</strong> the m-factor model can be tested for<br />
large samples using a likelihood ratio test <strong>of</strong> the null hypothesis E=&+$'<br />
against the alternative hypothesis that is any symmetric positive definite<br />
matrix. In most applications the number <strong>of</strong> common factors is not known and<br />
successively larger numbers <strong>of</strong> factors are extracted until the goodness <strong>of</strong> fit<br />
hypothesis is accepted or the computing routine fails to converge. Successive<br />
tests used in this procedure clearly are not independent and the statistical<br />
properties <strong>of</strong> the result are unknown.<br />
Factor analysis has been used since the beginning <strong>of</strong> the twentieth century<br />
to study the covariance structure <strong>of</strong> multivari te observations. Many variations<br />
<strong>of</strong> the model discussed above have been propose 3 and many estimation procedures<br />
have been developed. Unfortunately, factor analysis, in any <strong>of</strong> its forms, may<br />
be very difficult to interpret in practice. Part <strong>of</strong> the difficulty arises from<br />
the fact that, regardless <strong>of</strong> the method <strong>of</strong> extimation used, the factor solution<br />
is unique o<strong>nl</strong>y up to a rotation <strong>of</strong> the axes. Various criteria, notably those<br />
involving simple structure, have been suggested for obtaining the rotation most<br />
readily interpreted; in practice, considerable subjectivity may be involved in<br />
applying these criteria, even if their appropriateness is not in question.<br />
Another difficulty in factor analysis arises from the fact that evaluation <strong>of</strong><br />
factor scores for use in subsequent analyses is not uniquely defined; several<br />
intuitively appealing approaches have been suggested, but there are no apparent<br />
criteria for choosing among them. Thus there are serious problems involved in<br />
interpreting the results <strong>of</strong> factor analysis and using them in subsequent analyses.<br />
In addition, relatively little is known about the sampling properties <strong>of</strong><br />
the estimates obtained in factor analysis (see Matalas and Rieher (1967) for<br />
hydrologic discussions <strong>of</strong> this issue). The test for appropriateness <strong>of</strong> structure<br />
assumes normality and large samples; unfortunately, the alternative hypothesis<br />
for this test may not be the most interesting alternative in many applications.<br />
There is considerable evidence that factor analysis can give meaningless results<br />
if its assumptions are ignored.<br />
As an example <strong>of</strong> the last point, consider Rice's (1970) use <strong>of</strong> variables<br />
describing the physiography <strong>of</strong> experimental basins on the San Dimas Experimental<br />
Forest in southern California. His goal was to identify variables which would<br />
be useful in flood prediction. He notes "that the hydrologist might be better<br />
rewarded if he turns his efforts toward developing physiographic variables<br />
which better portray hydrologic processes rather than relying on a mathematical<br />
artifact such Bs factor analysis to appraise the utility <strong>of</strong> various expressions<br />
<strong>of</strong> basin physiography." This point is borne out in a non-hydrologic study by<br />
Armstrong (1967); he finds that, while factor analysis "explains" a large proportion<br />
<strong>of</strong> the variances, it fails to identify the known factors in the model!<br />
409
41 O<br />
2.6 Cluster Analysis<br />
The purpose <strong>of</strong> cluster analysis is to group multivariate observations according<br />
to various cri teria based on their degrees <strong>of</strong> homogeneity and .heterogeneity.<br />
In hydrology, cluster analysis can be used to classify watersheds, flaw regimes,<br />
and climates. Bogardi et al. (1972) have used it to group statistical properties<br />
<strong>of</strong> monthly water levels in Lake Balaton (Hungary). Hydrologic appli-<br />
cations are very few.<br />
cl us i on in mu1 ti vari ate regression.<br />
The other multivariate methods discussed above assume that the variables<br />
belong to particular populations and that these populations have specific<br />
(usually normal) distributions.<br />
Cluster analysis can help to identify variables for in-<br />
In cluster analysis the variables are not assumed<br />
to have even the minimal structure <strong>of</strong> belonging to particular populations and<br />
the purpose is to establish appropriate populations as a basis for structuring<br />
the variables.<br />
Techniques <strong>of</strong> cluster analysis have been developed, almost exclusively, not<br />
o<strong>nl</strong>y for computer application but also on the basis <strong>of</strong> computer analysis. Al-<br />
though mathematical rigor is minimal and statistical inference is almost non-<br />
existent for cluster analysis, very useful results have been obtained in appli-<br />
cations. Because <strong>of</strong> its (lack <strong>of</strong>) assumptions concerning population structures<br />
and distributions, cluster analysis is applicable to a wide variety <strong>of</strong> hydrologic<br />
and other problems;. its results can be useful if they are recognized as tentative<br />
and if even tentative conclusions are based o<strong>nl</strong>y on results from large samples.<br />
There are several questions or decisions that must be considered in any<br />
cluster analysis: the number <strong>of</strong> clusters must be determined, the cluster<br />
boundaries must be established, the method for handling correlated variables must<br />
be specified, the technique for examining similarities must be chosen, and so<br />
forth. Several approaches have been proposed for each <strong>of</strong> these aspects <strong>of</strong> cluster<br />
analysis. Which criteria or rules <strong>of</strong> thunh are most appropriate depends on the<br />
problem. Regardless <strong>of</strong> the techniques and criteria chosen for cluster analysis,<br />
the investigator usually examines successive computer printouts and uses his<br />
judgment to al ter apparently poorly selected cri teria and techniques. Compared<br />
<strong>with</strong> the other multivariate analyses discussed, cluster analysis is more <strong>of</strong> an<br />
art and less <strong>of</strong> a science, but so is engineering design under uncertainty assoc-<br />
iated <strong>with</strong> insufficient data.<br />
2.7 Bayesian Inference<br />
The preceding discussion <strong>of</strong> multivariate models is entirely from the point<br />
<strong>of</strong> view <strong>of</strong> classical sampling theory. Several <strong>of</strong> these models have been analyz-<br />
ed from the Bayesian point <strong>of</strong> view and these results are summarized in the follo-<br />
wing discussion. Bayesian inference incorporates, <strong>with</strong> sample infomation, the<br />
investigator's prior information concerning the sampling distributions <strong>of</strong> the<br />
parameters to obtain point or interval estimates. More general, however, is<br />
Bayesian decision theory that incorporates both prior information and a loss<br />
function <strong>with</strong> sample information in order to obtain parameter estimates or to<br />
determine the optimal decision. Bayesian analysis is intuitively appealing; in<br />
many applications the investigator has considerable prior data or experience as<br />
a basis. for prior parameter distributions and in most applications he has at
least a general idea <strong>of</strong> the?(economic) loss function associated <strong>with</strong> inaccurate<br />
estimation. Unfortunately, the results for many multivariate Bayesian methods<br />
are complicated and at best are applicable o<strong>nl</strong>y for large samples. However,<br />
since many classical results also have this limitation, Bayesian methods may be<br />
p:i ferable because <strong>of</strong> their flexibility in incorporating prior distributions and<br />
loss functions in the estimation <strong>of</strong> parameters or in determining optimal decisions.<br />
Also, human beings are better at estimating prior distributions than at estiniatlng<br />
posterior distributions (Ferre11 , 1972).<br />
There has been considerable application <strong>of</strong> Bayesian methods in mu1 tivariate<br />
linear regression analysis. Bayesian point estimates <strong>of</strong> the regression coefficients<br />
can be obtained <strong>with</strong> or <strong>with</strong>out incorporating loss functions and Bayesian<br />
interval estimators (credibility intervals) can be formulated.<br />
As discussed in section 2.5, the maximum likelihood factor analysis solution<br />
is unique o<strong>nl</strong>y up to a rotation <strong>of</strong> the axes; the use <strong>of</strong> subjective information<br />
in a Bayesian analysis is an intuitively appealing basis for eliminating this<br />
ambiguity. Unfortunately, the technical difficulties involved in obtaining<br />
numerical solutions have thus far precluded use <strong>of</strong> this approach.<br />
The Bayesian approach has also been considered for canonical correlation<br />
analysis; unfortunately, even for the simplest assumptions <strong>with</strong> respect to both<br />
the prior distributions <strong>of</strong> the parameters and the sampling distributions <strong>of</strong> the<br />
data, the Bayesian results for canonical correlation analysis are so complicated<br />
that their applicability is extremely limited.<br />
The most notable success <strong>of</strong> Bayesian methods in multivariate analysis thus<br />
far has been for discriminant functions. As summarized above, a number <strong>of</strong> methods<br />
based on the sampling theory viewpoint have been proposed for discriminant<br />
analysis, but these results are unsatisfactory for use <strong>with</strong> small samples. The<br />
Bayesian approach provides a useful and simple al ternative.<br />
Consider the case <strong>of</strong> classification into one <strong>of</strong> two mutually exclusive populations.<br />
Denote the populations by Pi and P , the vector <strong>of</strong> observations by<br />
x'=[xl, ..., xk]. the density functions by fl(Kf and fp(&) and the prior probabi-<br />
Tities by p1 and p2 where p +p2=1. The costs <strong>of</strong> misclassification are C(211) if<br />
an observation from P1 is classified in P2 and C(112) if an observation from P2<br />
is classified in Pl. The problAem is to determine a classification rule <strong>of</strong> the<br />
following form: partition K into regions R1 and R2 such that if ZERI, the observation<br />
is classified in Pi and if x~R2, the observation is classified in P2.<br />
The expected cost <strong>of</strong> misclassTfication is given by<br />
and the corresponding ,classification rule is<br />
f+X) C(l MP2 f+x) C(112)PZ<br />
R2:<br />
R1:q-g 'copl<br />
< cop1<br />
411<br />
This classification rule involves the densities f1(&) and f2(&) which may not be<br />
known. Assume that fi(&) and f2(&) are multivariate normal <strong>with</strong> mean vectors PJ<br />
and and common covariance matrix c. Then the above rule can be written<br />
c(1 PIP, c(1 12)P2<br />
R, :L'i.-+(IL,+q) 'L>log, R2:~'6-+(~1+4) '&
41 2<br />
1<br />
where 6 = E- (ply) and x'6 is the discriminant function. If p1=p2=% and<br />
C(112)3(2ll),'-this reducësto the rule, given in the discussion <strong>of</strong> the sampling<br />
theory appLoack to discriminant analysis. As noted in that discussion, sample<br />
estimates x x and 2 may be used to obtain from the sample data <strong>with</strong>out<br />
knowledge d'i' -2 and c.<br />
Bayesian aiscriminant analysis can easily be extended to other cases; for<br />
example, fl(x) and f2(&) may have some form other than the normal distribution<br />
or there may be more than two populations into which an observation may be<br />
classified. Finally, for the sake <strong>of</strong> completeness, we should mention the use <strong>of</strong><br />
Bayesian decision theory in design to imbed uncertainty in parameters resulting<br />
from inadequate samples into a loss function (Davis et al., 1972; Davis et al.,<br />
1973).<br />
3.0 Sumnary and Conclusions<br />
In this overview, we have critiqued the current status <strong>of</strong> multivariate<br />
methods <strong>of</strong> data analysis because <strong>of</strong> their central position in making estimates<br />
and predictions <strong>of</strong> both hydrologic and econometric (e.g., cost) inputs to design<br />
<strong>of</strong> water resource systems. The design implications <strong>of</strong> many <strong>of</strong> the assumptions '<br />
in these methods remain to be evaluated - a task <strong>of</strong> importance to many pr<strong>of</strong>es-<br />
sional disciplines.<br />
models <strong>with</strong>out considering the assumptions involved, we believe that use <strong>of</strong><br />
Bayesian decision analysis, while not the final answer, may be a viable alter-<br />
native for anticipatinq poor design. Bayesian analysis <strong>of</strong>fers flexibility in<br />
incorporating prior (subjective) knowledge about probabil i ty distributions on<br />
design parameters and it encourages the design engineer to invoke his general<br />
ideas <strong>of</strong> loss functions associated <strong>with</strong> inaccurate estimation in many specific<br />
design problems. The focus is on the consequences for a specific use and not on<br />
a precise design estimate. The latter has a subtle linkage <strong>of</strong> probability and<br />
utility, depending on one's value structure, but Bayesian decision analysis<br />
encourages specific consideration <strong>of</strong> each in an open manner. With the continuing<br />
emphasis on environmental impact evaluation, such an approach seems timely and<br />
necessary in the face <strong>of</strong> small samples <strong>of</strong> hydrologic and other environmental<br />
data.<br />
4 .O References<br />
In contrast to the current tactic <strong>of</strong> using multivariate<br />
Anderson, H. W. 1970. Principal components analysis <strong>of</strong> watershed variables<br />
affecting suspended sediment discharge after a major flood. Int'l. Assoc.<br />
for Hydrologic Sciences. Publ. 96, pp. 404-416.<br />
Anderson, T. W. 1958. An Introduction to Multivariate Statistical Analysis,<br />
New York: John Wiley ti Sons, Inc.<br />
Armstrong, J. S. 1967. Derivation <strong>of</strong> theory by means <strong>of</strong> factor analysis or<br />
Tom Swift and his electric factor analysis machine. The American Statistician.<br />
21(5), pp. 17-21.
41 3<br />
Blake, G. J., A. D. Cook and D. H. Greenall. 1970. The use <strong>of</strong>.principa1 component<br />
factor analysis to establish the uniformity <strong>of</strong> a hydrological region<br />
in Northland, New Zealand. Int'l. Assoc. tiydrol. Sci. (IAHS) Pulb. 96.<br />
Bogardi, I., L. Duckstein, and C. C. Kisiel. 1972.. Distribution <strong>of</strong> dynamic<br />
water level in a shallow lake, paper prepared for Fall Annual Meeting, AGU,<br />
San Francisco, Calif., December.<br />
Christ, C. F. 1966. Econometric Models and Methods. New York: John Wiley<br />
and Sons, Inc.<br />
Craddock, J. M. 1965. A meteorological application <strong>of</strong> principal component<br />
analysis. The Statistician, Vol. 15, p. 143.<br />
Davis, D., C. Kisiel and L. Duckstein. 1972. Bayesian decision theory applied<br />
to design in hydrology, <strong>Water</strong> Resour. Res., Vol. 8, No. 1, pp. 33-41.<br />
Davis, D. R., L. Duckstein, C. Kisiel, and M. Fogel. 1973. A decisiontheoretic<br />
approach to uncertainty in the return period <strong>of</strong> maximum flaw<br />
volumes using rainfall data, paper to be presented at Symposium on <strong>Design</strong><br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>Water</strong> Resource <strong>Projects</strong> <strong>with</strong> <strong>Inadequate</strong> Data, UNESCO, Madrid, Spain,<br />
June.<br />
Dawdy, D. R. and J. H. Feth. 1967. Application <strong>of</strong> factor analysis in the study<br />
<strong>of</strong> groundwater quality, Mojave River Valley, California. <strong>Water</strong> Resour<br />
Res., Vol. 3, No. 2, pp. 505-510.<br />
Dempster, A. P. 1969. Elements <strong>of</strong> Continuous Multivariate Analysis. Reading,<br />
Mass : Addison-Wes 1 ey .<br />
Dhrymes, P. J. et al. 1972. Criteria for evaluation <strong>of</strong> econometric models.<br />
Annals <strong>of</strong> Economic and Social Measurement, Vol. 1, No. 3, pp. 291-324.<br />
Dhrymes, P. 1970. Econometrics: Statistical Foundations and Applications,<br />
New York: Harper & Row.<br />
Diaz, G., J. I. Sewell and C. H. Shelton. 1968. An application <strong>of</strong> principal<br />
component analysis and factor anal sis in the study <strong>of</strong> water yield. <strong>Water</strong><br />
<strong>Resources</strong> Res. , Vol. 4 NO. 2, Pp. 2 99-306.<br />
Ferrell, R. 1972. Subjective inputs and uncertainty in water resources<br />
decisions, Proceedings, Int. Symp. on Uncertainties in Hydrologic and <strong>Water</strong><br />
Resource Systems, Univ. <strong>of</strong> Arizona, Tucson, Ariz., Decenber.<br />
Fiering, M. 1964. Multivariate technique for synthetic hydrology. J. Hydraulics<br />
Div., Proc. Amer. Soc. Civil Engrs. Vol. 90(HY5), pp. 43-60.
41 4<br />
Fogel, M, M., C. t. Kisiel and L. Duckstein. 1971. Space-time validation <strong>of</strong> a<br />
rainfall model for summer-type precipitation, Mater Resour. Bull.,<br />
Vol. 7, NO. 2, pp. 309-316.<br />
Freeze, R. Allan. 1972. Role <strong>of</strong> subsurface flow in generating surface run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
2. Upstream source areas, Mater Resour. Res., Vol. 8, No. 5, pp. 1272-1283.<br />
Gray, Howard. 1972. Bayesian Decision Analysis <strong>of</strong> a Statistical Rainfall/Run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
Relation, Tech. Report #14 <strong>of</strong> Reports on Natural Resource Systems, Univ.<br />
<strong>of</strong> Arizona, Tucson, Arizona.<br />
Harmon, H. H. 1967. Modern Factor Analys'is, 2nd Ed. Chicago: University <strong>of</strong><br />
Chi cago Press.<br />
Johns ton, J. 1963. Econometri c Methods. New York: McGraw-Hi 11 , Inc.<br />
Kmenta, Jan. 1971. Elements <strong>of</strong> Econometrics. New York: Macmillan.<br />
Knisel, W. G. 1970. A factor analysis <strong>of</strong> reservoir losses. <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong><br />
Res. Vol. 6, No. 2, pp. 491-498.<br />
Matalas, N. C. and B. J. Rieher. 1967. Some comnents on the use <strong>of</strong> factor<br />
analyses. <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Res., Vol. 3, No. 1, pp. 213-223.<br />
Metler, W. A. 1972. Bayes Risk Analysis <strong>of</strong> Regional Regression Estimates <strong>of</strong><br />
Floods. Master <strong>of</strong> Science Thesis, Dept. <strong>of</strong> Systems & Industrial Engineering,<br />
Univ. <strong>of</strong> Arizona, Tucson.<br />
Morrison, D. F. 1967. Multivariate Statistical Methods. New York: McGraw-<br />
Mill.<br />
Nechaeva, N. S. and V. M. Mukhin. 1968. The use <strong>of</strong> statistical methods for<br />
short-range forecasts. IAHS Publ. 81, pp. 405-416.<br />
Nimannit, V. 1969. Multivariate analysis <strong>of</strong> hydrologic changes. Doctoral<br />
dissertation, Dept. <strong>of</strong> Civil Engineering, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins.<br />
Peck, E. L. 1972. Relation or orographic winter precipitation patterns to<br />
meteorological parameters. Proceedings, Int'l, Symp. on Distribution <strong>of</strong><br />
Precipitation in Mountainous Areas, World Meteorological Organization,<br />
Gei 1 o, Norway.<br />
Press, S. James. 1972. Applied Multivariate Analysis. New York: Holt,<br />
Reinhart, and Winston.<br />
Rice, R. M. 1970. Factor analyses for the 'iiterpretation <strong>of</strong> basin physiography.<br />
IAHS Publ. NO. 96, pp. 253-268.
Rodda, J. C., et al. 1969. Hydrologic Network <strong>Design</strong>, World Meteorological<br />
Organizat ion/International Hydrological Decade, WO, Geneva, Sui tzerland.<br />
Shelton, C. H. and J. I. Swell. 1969. Parameter screening for watershed<br />
analysis. Trans. ASAE, Vol. 12, No. 4, pp. 533-539.<br />
415<br />
Singh, T. 1970a. A principal components regression model for predicting infiltration.<br />
Paper presented at 1970 National Fall Meeting <strong>of</strong> the American<br />
Geophysical Union, San Francisco, Calif.<br />
Singh, T. 1970b. A minimum entropy rotation <strong>of</strong> principal components for obtaining<br />
simple structure in a hydrologic data matrix. Paper presented at the<br />
1971 Fall Annual Meeting <strong>of</strong> the American Geophysical Union, San Francisco,<br />
Calif.<br />
Snyder, W. M. 1963. A water yield model derived from monthly run<strong>of</strong>f data. IAHS<br />
Publ. 63, pp. 18-30.<br />
TVA (Division <strong>of</strong> <strong>Water</strong> Control Planning). 1965. <strong>Design</strong> <strong>of</strong> a hydrologic<br />
condition survey using factor analysis. TVA Research Paper No. 5.<br />
Thomas, D. M. and M. A. Benson. 1970. Generalization <strong>of</strong> Streamflow Characteristics<br />
from Drainage Basin Characteristics; ~ U.S. Geological Survey <strong>Water</strong><br />
Supply Paper 1972, 55 pp.<br />
Torranin, P. 1972. Application <strong>of</strong> Canonical Correlation in Hydrologic Predictions,<br />
Ph.D. dissertation, Dept. <strong>of</strong> Civil Engineering, Colorado State<br />
Uni v. , Fort Col 1 ins.<br />
Tryon, R. C. and D. E. Bailey. 1970. Cluster Analysis. New York: McGraw-Hill.<br />
Wallis, J. R. and H. W. Anderson. 1965. An application <strong>of</strong> multivariate analysis<br />
to sediment network design. Int'l. Assoc. Hydrol. Sci. (IAHS) Publ. 67.<br />
pp. 357-378.<br />
Zellner, A. 1971. An Introduction to Bayesian Inference in Econometrics.<br />
New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 480 pp.
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PRATIQUES COURANTES POUR L'EVALUATION DES CRUES ET<br />
DES DEBITS D'ETIAGES PRIS EN COMPTE DANS LES PROJETS<br />
Rapport General<br />
P ar<br />
Marcel ROCHE<br />
Pour &borer les données hyärologiqueis néceseaires à la mise au<br />
point diun projet d'aménagamcmt des eaux, on dispose finalement de trois<br />
graisda types d'approche :<br />
- u'utilieer que lee observatione concernaut les débite et re-<br />
cueillie6 au site m be de l'amhgement ou & p roat6 ;<br />
- utili- 6gelement les données climatiquee ãieponibles BUF le<br />
baadn, notemnent les relevée de précipitatione i<br />
. 88 mvlr de formules r6gionalee1 ou de corr6lationa. Pour a-<br />
trapoler des reeultate recueillis d dee statione hgdrom&riqUeE<br />
et/ou plu~iométrigues tdtu&s BiUeure äaus ia regiou, à 1li.n-<br />
ttieur OU d l'extbieur du basain fluvial.<br />
Le premier typa groupe lee dthodee dites Wirscteetl, tandis qUe<br />
lee d ew autree pmoèdemt de 1'Cvaluation indirecte. La m&hode "la plu8<br />
aireate" consiste en lkdyse statietique d'un Bchentillon, par exemple
420<br />
de débits maximaux annuels t elle nécessite, pour que l'évaluation ait un<br />
sens, une infoimation riche, des m emes précises de débite portant sur de<br />
longues périodes.<br />
Le second type de méthodes ccmaiste en fait à l96tendrett des échan-<br />
tillons existante de debits, portant BUT dee périodes courtee, en utilisant<br />
les relations qu'on peut dkager entre lea dábits et les donnbe climatiques<br />
disponibles sur une dur& beaucoup plus longue. C'est @ll'exteneion des don-<br />
néedi, qui fait largement appel aux méthodes de r¿greesion et à l'anaïyse<br />
multivariate, mais aussi dans certaine cas aux modèles dits conceptuels. On<br />
peut rattacher à ce type lee m&hodes qui consistent à effectuer les trans-<br />
formations ou à appliquer les régressions & u11 évènement climatique de pé-<br />
riode de retour connue, ou considéré comme un maximum possible.<br />
Le tmi&me type, enfin, rassemble les méthodes d'interpolation<br />
ou d'extrapolation géographique. Ces méthodes vont de la simple analogie &o-<br />
morphologique et climatique, aux raffinements de l'analyse factorielle, en<br />
passant par les tablee et abaquee régionaux.<br />
U paraft se dégager de cette &um&ration une id& simple de l'uti-<br />
lisation dee m6thodee en face de l'information disponible ; il semble évident<br />
a priori que les m6thodes de type I n'ont de sens qu'en cae d'information très<br />
abondante, que odles du type II correspondent A une information hydrologique<br />
réduite, mais à une informetion cïimatoïogique consistante, et que le type<br />
III groupe les mgthodes utilie8ss lorsqu'on ne dispose de pratiquement rien.<br />
On pourrait en conclure que la m&hodologie de type I devrait être exclue<br />
d'un symposium tel que celui-ci.<br />
En fait, le jugement doit être plue nuancé, car on commence à ten-<br />
ter des régionalisatione BUF lee lois de distribution, donc à rechercher par<br />
là des estimations indirectes, a melanger dane lee études statistiques des<br />
dondes de conaietances t Ae différentes. C'est pourquoi nous rQerverom,<br />
ciam notre expod, une piace à l * m & e statistique.<br />
Chaque m&hode d'heluation fait appel à des outils de calcul qui<br />
ne lui sont pae forchent propre. C'est aind qu'un modèle 6 structure détor-<br />
ministe, ì'hydmgranmie unitaire par example, peut etre utilisé pour une ex-<br />
tension des donnhe, pour u11 celcul de transformation d'una, averse de fr&<br />
quence donnét, ou pour une extrapolation &graphique.
ûn pourrait envisager, dans ce rapport, une présentation par<br />
"outil de ~ elcul~~ ; il nous a paru plus cmfonne au eujet du eymposiuc<br />
d'aùmter un ordre d'exposé qui se rattache, autant qu'il mit possible,<br />
à la quantité d'information disponible.<br />
421<br />
Les sujets proposés dans la question qui fait l'objet de ce rap-<br />
port général se rappsrtent aux débits extr&nes, c'est-à-dire aux étiages<br />
et aux crues. I1 faut bien reconnaître que le premier sujet nia guère tenté<br />
les ~ãpécialistes, puisque un 6eUl rapport, eur les quatorze que nous avona<br />
examinés, traite des basses eau, Finalement, cela n'est pas tellement sur-<br />
premt ; les basses eaux sont liées de très pr&3 aux problèmes d'hydrogh-<br />
logie ; or ce n'est que dans quelques cas trèer particuliers qu'il est possi-<br />
ble de dégager des paraadtree morphologiques et climatiques simples qui<br />
soient en relation directe avec ces pmblèmeo et qui permettent une tramp-<br />
sition &,panhique suffisamment précise. Par contre, u11 auteur aurait pu<br />
être tent6 par l'aspect "extedon des donnée^'^, qui dierpoee d'une méthodo-<br />
logie courante sinon riche, du moina 88888 efficace ; cela ne s'est pa6<br />
produit.<br />
I1 était précisé enfin que les expos6s devaient se rapporter à<br />
des llpratiques courantes", ce qui semblait exclure les sujete de recherche<br />
et certaim procédk de calcul non totalement dégagés de leur phase exp&i-<br />
mentaie. Aussi n'Fneieterona noua par3 tmp LNF certaine aapecte qui no-<br />
ont été soumie ; ceci ne veut pas dire que noua lee trouviane peu dignes<br />
d'inter&<br />
Dana notre prbentation des rapporta, nous parlerone d'abord des<br />
étiages, puis des crues.<br />
Le eeul rapport traitant de ce pmblème est celui de<br />
MM. Vladimirov et Chebotarev [I3]- Lee autemrs définiasent avec m in les
422<br />
en<br />
variables par lesquelles on caractÓriae lee basses eaux/G.R.S.S. :<br />
- d&it journalier minimal de l'annw,<br />
- d6bbit moyen meneuel minimal de l*annh.<br />
Chacune de ce6 oarlablee est définie pour choune dee deux saisons<br />
de basses eaux : celle d'hiver et celle d'&&-automne.<br />
Les auteurs exposent ensuite ï'infïuence, sur ces débits de bM6e6<br />
eaux, des caractéristiques climatiques, en insistant Bur le Ale du gel, et<br />
des carúct&istiques phyeiographiquuee, en notant le r81e particulièrement<br />
important des lacs, des rnaraic, du sol, du sow-sol, du karst. 110 définie<br />
sent enmite le cadre régionel dans lequel va s'exercer la méthadologie :<br />
les bassins sont classés en<br />
- petits bassins : jusqu'a 1 o00 1 500 h2en zone de plaine hu-<br />
mide, jusqu'à 2 000-2 500 h2 dan6 les zones de montagnes oc les<br />
zones de plaines peu humides, jutSqu'8 5 OOO-10 o00 km' dans les<br />
régiow arides ou pour les rivières soumises à un gel intense ;<br />
- bassins inoyene : jusqu'8 75 O00 km2.<br />
Pour lee petite bassins, on applique, dana un cadre strictement<br />
régionali66 6 partir des caractériatiques phydographiquee et climatiques,<br />
une formulo de la fome Q = a (A ;I. fIn oÙ Q eat le dBit meneuel minimal<br />
moyen (dit l~omuiì~l daps le texte) en d/s, A ia eurface B.V. tan d, f un<br />
correctif tenant compte d, la non coincidence hentueile du bassin topogra-<br />
phique et du bassin souterrain ; a ot n srnt de6 paramdtres régionaux. Le<br />
passage du débit % od1* 6 dee débits de fr8quences donnbs er'effectue par<br />
deux méthode8 diffbentes.<br />
?our lee baemns moyenne, on utilise des cartes d'isopl&thes (iflolines)<br />
pour la détexmination du débit d'étiage meneuel ; ces cartes sont établies<br />
pour les valeur8 moyennes (normeles) et pour la frbence 80 % de dépasscirent.<br />
coefficient de p-.<br />
Les étiages joumdiers sont dikìuits de6 étiages menauele par un<br />
Il s'agit donc d'un proc6dd8 de formule @kd8gionale1@ dont les parani&<br />
tres sont d&erminb gar un catalogue, et non l ib à dee caractéristiques
423<br />
ghorphologiques et climatologiques meeurables. C'est pratiquement le seul<br />
moyen de e'en eortir en matière de basaes eaux, pour los raieons que noua<br />
avo- deja indiqubs. I1 est dommage que l'auteur n'ait pea indiqué quel-<br />
ques valeure de cosfîiciente r6gioll~yx, ni montré sur un exemple la concor-<br />
dance des réniltate du calcul avec des dombs observks.<br />
Lorequ'on dit qu'on détermine dee crue8 en l'absence de données,<br />
c'est faux. Sane donnéeel on ne caicüie ria du tout. Simplement, on cherche ici<br />
.4 trveer des do~8es existantee ou à établir des relations entre le phé-<br />
nomène qu'on &tudie et des données d'une autre nature. Toute L1infonnation,<br />
et par suite +out le sérieux de6 edhations qui en dbdent, tiennent dam<br />
Ce8 d O~h6.<br />
C'est pourquoi nous regrettons un peu qu'il ne se mit pas trouvé<br />
d'auteur pour exposer lea méthodee, pourtant de pratique bien courante, per-<br />
mettant de reconetituer UTI certain nombre d'6v&nementa marquanedu passé.<br />
Noue verrou tout 6 l'heure qu'on commence a se prkoccuper d'insérer dane<br />
des échantillons r4guliere de dbbite d maw de crue5 annuelles, dee obser-<br />
vations discontinues, parfoie t mnquh et souvent entachées d'erreur6 beau-<br />
coup plus grandee que celleede l'&chantillon régulier. Lorsque lee donnéee<br />
sur les ornes sont rame et surtout portent SUT de5 périodes très courtee,<br />
il devient extrhment important de dispaser du plus grand nombre de telles<br />
obaervatiom.<br />
chi peut aauvent trouver dana les archivea, dane la preme, ~ ur<br />
de6 télégrammes adminietratifel dee indications parfoiPs trèB préci898<br />
oertaines 5mdee crues. On peut également mener des enquatee 6ur place,<br />
auprès dee riverains et em a'intbrsemant aux d&hhs& ou autres marques<br />
laiss6es par ces orue~). 11 y a 1a toute une m6thodologie dont nom no pou-<br />
viam peu ne pas tout BU moina signaler l'existence.
424<br />
des crues réellement observées e d traditionnellement un outil pour informa-<br />
tion riche. Des études relativement récentes ont pourtant 6tk men688 afin<br />
de voir s'il n'Était pas possible, en cas de données rares,<br />
- soit de compléter l'échantillon de données rkgulierement recueillies<br />
par des observations sporadiques et/ou tmnqubs,<br />
- soit de faire de la transposition régionale sur les lois stutisti<br />
ques elles-mêmes<br />
Bien entendu, lee deux ne smt pae incompatibles.<br />
La première question a été traitée, au moins partiellemmt, dens la<br />
cornunication de M. Morven N. keee 183. L'auteur considère deux aspects de<br />
la question. Dans le premier, il suppose qu'on dispose d'une série n o d e<br />
d'observations (enregistrements par exemple) au cours de laquelle un certain<br />
nombre de maximums annuels n'ont pas &é observés, par exemple par suite d'uno<br />
déficience d'appareillage : on cornaft seuìernent , pour les crues concernhs,<br />
le seuil inf&ieur du débit, seuil supposé constant eur la période. C'est le<br />
cas pratique du stylet d'enregietreur qui sart des limites du tambour ou de<br />
la table dbulante.<br />
Le second aespect est celui de la station pour laquelle on dispose<br />
d'une skie d'observations régULiBres de N années, courte mais complète,<br />
des maximums muela de cruea. On connaît par ailleurs, sur une p aode de<br />
M autres annha, les n d8bits maximaux de crues ayant d&ad un seuil 5 ;<br />
et on est certain que p e a t lee N-n anahs reetantes de cette période, aucun<br />
débit n'a atteint ou d6paee6 xh. Ce eont là des hypotheses assez restrictives<br />
qui correspondent au cas pratique des échelles de hautes eaux Wloitées Pon-<br />
dant u11 certein nombre d'années avant que les services se préoccupent des<br />
basses et moyennes eaux ; ce peut (tre aussi le cas de certaines marques<br />
relatives a des cmes historiques.<br />
Lee deux problemes sont trait& par la méthode du maximum de vrai-<br />
semblance, suivant la technique indicph pm Kendall aux paragraphes 32.15<br />
et suivants de son ouvrage. L'auteur donne un exemple d'application a la ri-<br />
vière Avon a la dation de Bath (U.K.). Le but de l'étude<br />
eat de déter-<br />
miner le gain d'information apport& par les observations tronquées ou les don-<br />
nks que l'auteur qualifie d'historiques ; ce gain d'information est estimé
425<br />
ici par la r&ction apport& à 1'eITeur etandard d'estimation pour différent;<br />
quant i les.<br />
Cette 6tude est fort int&resaante, bien qu'on puisse ne pas être<br />
pleinement d'accord avec touteei les hypathèees introduites par l'auteur. Elle<br />
est susceptible d'importants prolongements vers d'autres formes d'information<br />
tronquée ou sporadique, mais le traitement rieque alors de ne pas être aussi<br />
simple.<br />
En ce qui concerne la aeconde question, la traueposition des lois<br />
statistiques a été mainteefois tenth, souvent avec succ8s. Nous nous permet-<br />
tona de rappeler les 6tudes de U, Oktay hanoglu sur le5 mo~ules pluviom&<br />
trique8 de IlAfrique de l'Ouest (Cahiers de l*O.R.S.T.O.M., hérie @droiogie>.<br />
MM. Herbst, Van Biljon, Olivier et Hai1 noue présentent une c odcation sur<br />
la régionalisation des paramètres das lois de distribution des crues 151.<br />
Les auteurs prennent comme m>dèle statistique la loi log-gaiinna<br />
incomplète (log-Pearson III), tout en hoquant la possibilité d'effectuer<br />
les mi3mee opératiom en Re basant mr une lo' de Qumbel. La méthode consiste<br />
à<br />
- calculer. '.es paP810dtime8 des lois pour toutes les longues séries<br />
diaponibleB,<br />
- apposer que chacun de ces paramatres d6pend deun certain nombre<br />
de facteur@ gbmorpholagiques et climatiques (il cite la super-<br />
ficie du bm&n, la pluie annuelle moyenne, la pente moyenne,<br />
la longueur de la rivière, la pluie menquelle maximale médiane,<br />
un facteur de fome mais n'utilise dans la suite du texte<br />
que La surface du bassin A et la pluie annuelle moyenne R),<br />
- appliquer pour chaque parametre de la loi une régression multiple<br />
avec lea facteurs retanus ; les coefficients de la r6gression<br />
sont calculés par lea moindres carrés et l'opération constitue<br />
en fait un "lieeage gbgraphiquelt des valeurs de ces paramètres.<br />
En r&äiité, lee auteum neiitilisent pas les param¿tres fLgurant<br />
dana l'expresdon mathhatique de la Loi, &is la moyenne (des logarithmes<br />
dee débite), ll&cart-type et 10 coefficient d1msiymétrie, ce dernier étant<br />
du reste trait6 de fapon trèe diffhnte. Le pint le plus important au calcul
426<br />
se rapporte à la variance d'estimation de tele paramètres et dee quanti-<br />
qui en dkoulmt, toujours parr l'intermediaire de la loi log-ggnnaa.<br />
Les auteurs donnant quelques résultats obtenue en Afrique du Sud.<br />
Lo cadcation de MM. Davis, Ducketein, Kisiel et Fogel /2]<br />
traite du problhe de la distribution de la pkiode de retour correspondant<br />
au déparssement d'un maxipnrm ou diun volume de crue donni, en partant des don-<br />
nées sur les précipitations. La méthode se rapporte plut8t au type II,<br />
d e les techniques de calcul expos6ee relhnt enti8rement de l'analyse<br />
atatidique. La formule de transformation pluies-débits adoptée pour les<br />
volumes de cnie e& de la forme Q = C (R - A). Dana l'analyse de &bili-<br />
té conduite par dmulation, les auteurs ne se préoccupent que de C et trou-<br />
vent, come il fallait s'y attendre, une énorme influence de la variance<br />
d'estimation de ce paramètre sur la variance d'estimation de la période de<br />
retour. I1 n'est pas pmuvé, come semblent le supposer les auteurs, que<br />
la variance de A n'ait qu'une influence négligeable.<br />
2.2. - kJB-hodes_de rn-1; = *&e-d-og gee ~ o ~ . g<br />
Dane Bon sena le plus littéral, l'extension Eee d o ~ de h d6bits<br />
consiste en l'opération suivante.<br />
- Une variate Y &tant définie mivant le phhomene i@rologique<br />
qui intbesse et le probl8me qu'm a à résoudre (par emmpie<br />
Y a d&it maximal instantané de l'année) ;<br />
- on dispose d'un échantillon de n valeurs de Y obtenues par l'Obsemation<br />
directe des débits ;<br />
- on dispoee d'un échantiiìon de N > n<br />
valeurs de une 01 ph-<br />
sieurs oaractgristiqueim cìimatoiogiques XI, U .. . Xk(pm 8xezaple :<br />
averse dmaìe annuelle, indice de pluies antk6dentee mtte<br />
aveme, etock de neige sur le baasin au d h t de la fonte) N<br />
contenant n i<br />
(StJ - on cherehe à établir une r8grulsolon multiple (au simple) entre<br />
11 et XI, X2 ... xk (ou seulement XI) :
427<br />
- on appïiqtm la régreseion trouvée aux Io-n valeur8 de XI ... non<br />
contenues dane la période commune de n années ;<br />
- on a ainsi une nouvelle ebie de N valeurs de Y, plus longue que<br />
la &rie originale de n valeurs, laquelle on peut appliquer<br />
11analyse statistique.<br />
OU BDN - on &ablit un modèle déterministe de transformation pluies-débits<br />
(par exemple hydrogramme unitaire + fonction de ruissellement) ;<br />
- on applique ce modele aux donn&s climatologiques XI ..., et on<br />
procède comme pour lee données reconstitubs par régression.<br />
On doit noter que, ni par une méthode ni par l'autre, on ne :ail;<br />
de transposition ou interpolation gbgraphique. Les modeleis, qu'ils soient<br />
régressionsll ou de structure déterministe, sont appliquh aux bassi116<br />
mêmes pour lesquels ils ont et6 établis.<br />
Le problème du gain d'information se pose dans les deux cas. I1<br />
e~t bien évident qLe le nouvel Qchantilion de n valeurs de X observées<br />
+ N-n valeurs de X calculés n'est pas équivalent, du point de vue quantité<br />
d'information, à un échantillon de N valeurc de X observées, mais '1 un &chan-<br />
tillon de NI valeurs, avec n < Nu < N. Si on a procédé par régressions et<br />
qu'on se soit m angé pour que ces régressions répondent à peu près aux con-<br />
ditions suivantes :<br />
- homsc8aasticit6,<br />
- linéarité,<br />
- distributions marginales n odes, en opérant bei changements<br />
de vexiables ou dea anamorphoeesp le gain d'information, c'est-d-dire la wan-<br />
tit6 NI-n, peut être facilement &du61 en comparant les variance8 des estima-<br />
tiom.<br />
Si on a utili& un modèle d&erministe, cette &elmtian n'est pas<br />
imgdiate. Ii est nécetseaire de rechercher empiriquement la loi des écarts<br />
rkiduels, ou la corrélation entre valeurs obeervbe et vele~~W calculées
42 8<br />
en se baeent ~ u1 lee n ann&s d'obmrvatioiiei conmnme0. il faut dire que bien<br />
souvent on ne fait pas cette remherche et on se psisee de 1*6valuation des in-<br />
tervallee de confiance.<br />
L'avantage du modale déterministe, (notamment de ì'hydrolp.Emime uni-<br />
taira, est de fournir la totalité de l'hydrogramme de amel donc simultané-<br />
ment le débit maximal, le volume ruisselé et la fome. Taiidie que ces Biéments<br />
(au moins débits maximaux et volumes) doivent &re étudiés séparbment par une<br />
méthode strictement 1% régressionet'.<br />
On peut élargir la notion d'extension des données en coneidérant non<br />
plus In totalité de l@échantillon des Xi, mais des ensembles de valeurs de ces<br />
données sélectionnée par des critères statistiques (averse de fr6quence donnée,<br />
par exemple), ou bien cornidbée comme représentant dee situations partidi&-<br />
rement défavorables eu égard au but poursuivi (précipitation maXimale probn-<br />
ble, par exemple).<br />
Cae&<br />
une attitude très répandue, qui correspond bien à la con-<br />
ception moderne des crues de projet. Mais elle ne - J~B pas s- poser quelques<br />
problèmes, ourtout quand on procède par hydrogramme unitaire. h effet, sur<br />
lfenser;ible des v:trLat?s Xi, une seule peut &tre introduite avec sa fréquence.<br />
Supposons qu'on désigne par XI l'averse décennale et qu'on prenne pour X2 ...<br />
X& des valeurs moyennes, ou médianes ; quelle probabilité peut-on attribuer<br />
à la crue obtenue par application du modèle à l'ensemble des Xi ? On convient<br />
souvent que la probabilité de la crue est la même que celle de l'averse.<br />
C'est certainanent faux, mais dans quelle mesure ?<br />
M. Beran, ciana la c odcation qu'il noua soumet IlIltente de ré-<br />
pondre a cette question. La e.ynthèse qu'il propose pour 1'Wdrogmme e& tout<br />
à fait classique. Le choix de l'averse est fait à partir de ia reìation<br />
hauteur-dicrée-fréquence. La distribution des crues obtenues à partir de cette<br />
averse est étudiée par une simulation effectub pour toutes les combinaisons<br />
possibles d'un choix de<br />
- 12 valeurs de 1~ durée de l@averBe,<br />
- 3G 8Ch&~ de hyétogmrmee,<br />
- 12 valeurs d'un indice d'humidité du bassin.
La conclusion de l'autemr eat que, ai l'on utildm dee valeurs<br />
m8dianes pour la durée de Le pluie, la r-ition de celle-ci au esin de<br />
l'averse, le taux d'infiltration, la crue obtenue a une fr6quence voiaine<br />
de celle qui a 6tB choidc pour la hauteur de precipitation. La forme àu<br />
hyéto,p-amme ne semble pas jouer un grand Ale.<br />
429<br />
MM. Kitmaita et Haehimoto 171 exposW?i'au Japon on part de l'ana-<br />
lyse statistique des prboipitations de deux jours pour lee petite bassins,<br />
ou de trois JOWS pour les grands. Lee auteurs attachent une très grande<br />
importance à la distribution de la ?hie à l'intérieur de ces intervalles ;<br />
l'étudc de cette ustribution sat rai'.? AU RB de temps horaire et ibdécri-<br />
vent une méthode d'élaboration du hy6tograrame de projet qui met en jeu un<br />
"facteur d'ag-an disse ment^^ et un hyétogramme dit lfreprésentatifl1 qui n'est<br />
autre qu'un hyétogrme naturel observé lors d'une averse récente. Autrement<br />
dit, on sélectionne une "formea* qu'on applique à la hauteur de pluie déter-<br />
minée par l'analyse statistique.<br />
Pour cette détermination, la période de retour choisie dbend en<br />
fait du type c'e projet et des conditions économiques, sociales et politiques<br />
dans lesquelles il est envisagé. La durée de cette période est de cinq à sent<br />
ans pour un projet d'égout, de vi.?& ans pour un petit bassin urbdn, de<br />
cent rms pow un projet sur une gl
430<br />
se aont tous cantonnb daOs deux aspects particuliers du problème : la trans-<br />
position de l'hydmgramme unitaire et l'utilisation de formules régionales<br />
dbivées de la méthode rationnelle.<br />
Noue rappelerone que, parmi d'autres, on peut considher la méthode<br />
des courbes enveloppes comme une methode de tramposition géographique, quand<br />
elle est assortie d'une "formule de r6gionalisation", come c'eet le cas<br />
pour les abaques de I'ranmu-Rodier (Cahier6 O.R.S.T.O.I., ewe hydrologie).<br />
D'autres méthodee pourront 8tre conatmites H partir du catalogue des crues<br />
exceptionnelles de l'U.N.E.S.C.O., lorsque celui-ci pourra enfin voir le jour.<br />
De tels catalogues, lorsqu'ile comportent dee descriptions sufff-<br />
ates dee cara& Bristiquee climatiques et gbmrphologiquee du baaseiin (sans<br />
toutefoia trop compliquer lee C~OSOE)~ constitueraient par leur sede exis-<br />
tence un outil de tout prender choix pour l'bvaluation dee crues en l'absence<br />
de &m&s insuffisantee. Cseat m8me à vrai dire la seule choae qui actuelle-<br />
ment fasse vrdnent ahfaut.<br />
Rappelons enfin que la transposition des loi8 de distributions des<br />
crues pourrait atre traitée BOU cette rubrique. Nous avons pr8î8i.h en parler<br />
6 propos de l'analyse etatietique,davantage pour uno queetion de m&hodologie<br />
que dans un souci de préeentation logique.<br />
L'hydr-ogranme unitaire paraît $tre encore, malgré ses dé-<br />
tracteurs, un inetment de choix pour l'evaluation des crues mar lee petits<br />
baseins. Noue n'ailone pas ici emtemer une foie de plue une äi~cuseion am<br />
la d6finition de ce derni- terme. Noue amne d6jà parlé de e m utilisation<br />
à un mame batwin, il s'agit maintenant ae voir comment on peut trawposer<br />
lee résuitate.<br />
Cette traaepdition est eseentielle dans la m6thoùologie<br />
ConcermELllt lee cruce dee petit8 bamuins. ûn 88 bute bien qu'il n'est pas<br />
poesible d'entretenir des rbaux de longue dude sur la totalité des petits<br />
bassiris d'un pays. I1 n'est m8me pas toujours possible, pour chaque petit<br />
projet, de mettre en oeuvre sur le bassin correspondant des observations<br />
d'une densité suffisante, pendant une dur& suffieante pur l'application
de l'bydrogrme unitaire au bassin lul-m&ue.<br />
431<br />
Pour lee petits bassins, l'inauffisance, et mbe l'absen-<br />
ce totale de donnbs au lieu d'utilisation, est donc la >e. La préparation<br />
des données hydrologiques pour les projets consiste donc à échantillonner<br />
un certain nombre de basains, dits reprbentatifs, correepondaat B un nombre<br />
suffisant de conditione climatiques et morphologiques. Ce erant lee résultats<br />
recueillis sur ces baasins qui permettent la mise en oeuvre des différentes<br />
méthodes de trampsition.<br />
H. ~~äier, sa communication [Il] , présente ia mho-<br />
dologie mise en oeuvre par 1'O.R.S.T.O.M. pour les paye tropicaux. Cette mé-<br />
thodologie est bask sur les résultats obtenus par l'exploitation, pendant<br />
des durées égales ou supérieures A trois ans, de plus de lo0 ensembles de<br />
bassins représentatifs. Elle ee rapporte surtout aux zones mahéliemes et<br />
tropicales, mais des résultats sont ¿galement disponible8 pour lea zones dé-<br />
sertiques et pour lee zonee équatoriales.<br />
Les parametree sélectionnés pour représenter la forme de<br />
l%ydrograme eant :<br />
- le temps dû bue (Tb) OU durée du d,esûllment,<br />
- le temps de montée (GI,<br />
- le rapport K du d6bit de pointe au d.bit moyen de lib-<br />
drogranune de ruissellement.<br />
Le volume ruisselé est évalué à partir de la hauteur totale<br />
de l'averee par l'intermédiaire d'un coefficient de ruissellement i$.<br />
L'analyse des rewiltats disponibles a permis de lier les<br />
paramètres %, l& et i à certaines caractéristiques gbamorphologiques du<br />
bassin, soit :<br />
- la Burface du bassin,<br />
- une clame de relief (R) d8terminb A partir d'un indice<br />
-<br />
de pente,<br />
une clame de pennbbilit6 6valub 4 lleetime.
Lee relations sont prkentbee SOUS fome d'abaques. Suivant<br />
l'&umbation ci-deesus, ces abaques ne tiennent pas compte explicitement du<br />
rdle pourtant importaut de la couverture végétale. C'est que, dam les régions<br />
étudiée^, cette couverture v¿&ale abend eaeentielleiacsnt de la zone clima-<br />
tique dane laquelle se t mwe le bmsin. Come les jeux d'abaque eont établis<br />
par Bones climatiques, loensemble tient compte simplicitemciait dea conditions<br />
de végétation. Dane lee cas particuliers, il cmvient au epéciaìiste d'gvaluer<br />
ie ltcoup de pouce" à donner pour tenir compte d'une anomalie de ce8 cmditione.<br />
Le coefficient de fome K est &du6 mivant les zones<br />
climatiques, la eurface du baesin, mu8 forme de tableau.<br />
Les abaques fournissent des valeur6 moyennes de6 parmètres<br />
c,iLL ALI^^..: L. 1x1 ir; q 3vc- 'iverse äécr-~qal-.<br />
ans une communication Is] consacrée e o u t à ilinfìuence<br />
du degré d'urbanisation eur les cme~ des petits bassine, M. Hall propose<br />
une méthode de r6gionalisation des hyärogrmmes unitaires. I1 part d'un hydro-<br />
grme unitaire dimension en utilisant comme paramètre d'khelle des<br />
-- *<br />
le temps 'r retctrd l i (la?). TL est dors exprimé en fonction du<br />
llrapport de bessin" Z O L /p, où 2 e& en km, L est la longueur du cour6<br />
d'eau principal, en km, et S la pente moyenne du cours principal en %.<br />
W. Eelliwell et Chen, dans leur c odcation [4] présen-<br />
tent 6gaìsment une m6thode de traneposition r8gionale b a h ar un bydrogrme<br />
BBPB dimmion. Leur pmblhe e& absolument typique du cbantp dgapplication de<br />
la m6thode de l'bydmgramme unitaire. Les rivières de la colonie de Hong Kong<br />
sont très nombreueee pour un ai pctff territah (1 o00 kd de terres) et la<br />
taille de leure baeeina est hidemuent td6 reduite. Il n'est pas concevable<br />
d'utiliser dane ces conäitions la fermule classique du réseau hydrologique.<br />
Lea hydrologues de Hong Kong ont donc s6lectionub quelques<br />
baseins reprbentatife dont ilpl ont 6tudi6 en détail le comportement hydrolo-<br />
gique. Le8 auteurs dbivent lee mathodee d'analyse utiliekm qui mnt d'ail-<br />
leiir8 trh claesiques, sauf que le pa^ de tamps tde caurt nécesmire (15 am<br />
ou mine) a créé quelques difncuitb par euite de la ree&¿ de6 enregistre-<br />
ments pluviographiquem exploitables. L'hydmgramme aan~ dimension eet obtenu,<br />
comme chez Hail, en multipliant les ordannies par le Lag, en divisant les
abscisses par le h g et Bll r ~ e le ~ tout t un volume unité.<br />
433<br />
L'analyse a conduit, pour chaque baeain btudi6, à un hydro-<br />
graimne unitaire moy'en, dont le tempe de retard (Lag) a 6th mie en relation<br />
avec l'indice L L, /r8, 0ii E est la longueur de la rivière principale, Lc<br />
la distance le long de cette rivière entre l'exutoire et le point le plus<br />
près du centre du bsrasin, 9 la pente moyenne du cour8 principal. Le Ia[:<br />
a été mio auSei en relation avec la siarface du baeain, et cette régression<br />
donne du rede um meilleure corrélation (0,92 contre O,%).<br />
de LI méthode mt;.onnelle.<br />
Touteo les formulee prbentkei par les auteurs sont d&riv&s<br />
EIM. Jarmwathma et Pinkayan dkrivent dana leur rapport [6]<br />
les abthode6 de d cul dee crues utiliebea en Thai'lande pour les petits bas-<br />
si-. Apre6 avoir rappelé la pauvreté dea donnke ditiponiblee dane ce pays,<br />
ils adreseent quelques crítiquea à ia formuìe rationnelle cl as rip^^<br />
Q P C i A et lui préfèrent la fozmule de Mc Math Q p: A C i @/A) "' qui in-<br />
trodult la pente du tasdn.<br />
La codcation de M. Pereira 9 damie entre autres qual-<br />
que8 indíaatione mur i'utilieation de la methode rationnelle au Erbil, notam-<br />
ment den valeurs du coefficient de miesellement. L'auteur y donne &alement<br />
dea rsnseignsme&e Bur le@ tsmpe de retour dOpt68 dane ca, pp d-raE le<br />
type de l*amhgement et l'erivimmemnt, a r l'intensité dee pluies au &&fi,<br />
BUF lea P.W.P.,sur l*eatimation des volumes N imelb à partir deer prkipita-<br />
tio-<br />
en U.R.S.S.,<br />
(fonmile du Soi1 Conservation Service).<br />
d e<br />
M. Sokalov 12 hoque l'emploi de l'hydrogrmme unitaire<br />
fait une place plue large & la méthode rationnelle, ainsi<br />
qu'à des foruniLee empiriques de la forme
434<br />
où sax est le débit maximal spécifique en m 3/s.km 2 , q un paramètre qui exprime<br />
le débit spécifique extrême lorsque la gurface A du bassin tend vers zéro.<br />
C est en fait égal à 1 ; n varie de 0,15 - 0,30 pour une crue de fonte de neige<br />
à O,5 - O,7 pour les crues dues à de violentes averses locales.<br />
M. Won [ 141 expose les méthodes utilisées en République de<br />
Corée. I1 propose une formule qui procède .?i la fois de l'hydrogramme global<br />
(sinon utilitaire) et de la méthode rationnelle :<br />
- = CY A R/T<br />
qo<br />
dans laquelle g, est le débit maximal, qo le débit avant la crue, C un coeffi-<br />
cient de forme de l'hydrogramme, 9 le coefficient de ruissellement moyen, A la<br />
surface du bassin, R la pluie totale, T la durée de la crue. I1 propose d'autres<br />
formules concernant le temps de concentration, la courbe intensité-durée, la<br />
durée critique de la pluie (t =
435<br />
M. Rendon Herrero a choisi, pour sa codcation bo] un eujet<br />
bien particulier. Il s'agit du transport de sédiments en suspension €tudi6<br />
à l'échelle de l'averse. L'auteur met d'abord l'accent sur l'importance des<br />
apports latéraux de sediments (Washload), mitit par l'brosion en nappe (sheet),<br />
soit par le ravinement (gully) par rapport aux dát&iaux du lit mis en jeu<br />
durant le transport. Lee r6sultatcs sont interpr8t6e par des techniques ana-<br />
logues & celles de l'hydrogranmie unitaire (s6dimentopame unitaire). Une<br />
application est faite au bassin de Bixler Run (U.S.A.)<br />
CONCLUSION<br />
I1 eet certes Intbeesant de mettre au point des méthodes d'analyse<br />
de plus en plw bborées pour essayer d'amocher le moina mal possible les<br />
caract6riatiques des crues et des basses eaux, lorsqu'on dispoae de donnbs<br />
rarea ou peu précisoa. Xais il ne faut pas trop se faire d'illueion BUT la<br />
portée réelle de cette tentative, ni oublier que toute la confiance qu'on<br />
peut attribuer d une eetimation rénide dana la quantité d'information , c'est-<br />
&-dire finalement dane la masee et la qualité des donnéee diqmniblee. La com-<br />
titution de cette infomation n'est pai3 te&&, il est faia de dire qu'elle<br />
ne pose plus de probl8mes.<br />
Ea matière de cruet3 par exsmple, ce qui fait le plus défaut danri la<br />
plupart des paye, e out lorsque les rivihs y epnt difficiles, torrentielles<br />
et inetables, c'est une bonne connei~aance des débits dee plus grandes crues<br />
connues. L'organisation d'un service hydrologique efficace n'est pae une petite<br />
affaire : elle demande une grande compbtence, un soin de tous les instants et<br />
une certaine aportivité. Elle demande awai de l'argent et c'eet L4 que rbide<br />
souvent la plus gnrnde difficult).<br />
le<br />
Notse conolwion aera donc que/meiUeur moyen de suppleer d la ca-<br />
rence dee donube hyàrologiques est encore de s'attacher à la Buppremion, ou<br />
tout au moins d la diminution de cette carence.
436<br />
111 - M.A. Bleuw (kglanä)<br />
E.timation <strong>of</strong> dedp floods and the problema <strong>of</strong> equating the<br />
probability <strong>of</strong> rainfall and run<strong>of</strong>f -<br />
R. DAVIS,bCKSTFZN, C. KIISIEL, N. Fo(zEL (U.S.A.)<br />
A decision - theoretic approach to uncertainty in the return<br />
period <strong>of</strong> maximum now volumee using rainfall data -<br />
131 M.J. HALL (U.K.)<br />
Synthetic dthydrograph technique for the design <strong>of</strong> flood<br />
alïepiatlon works in urban areas -<br />
[4] P.R. EEUWIEL, T.H. CEW (~ong-~ozy)<br />
A dimeriPiio<strong>nl</strong>Ess unitgraph for Hong-Kong -<br />
[5] P.E. HERBBT, S. VAN BiLúûN, J.P.J OLMER, J.H. HAIL (South Africa) -<br />
Flood estimation bp determination <strong>of</strong> regional parameters from<br />
limited data -<br />
r<br />
[GI D. JWATHANA, S. PINKAYAN (Thailand)<br />
Practice8 <strong>of</strong> design flood frequency for epiall <strong>Water</strong>eheds in<br />
!l%arland -<br />
171 T. K0IWSITA, T. HAsHuIoTo (Japan)<br />
-<br />
<strong>Design</strong> diecharge derived from design rainXall -<br />
[8] W.N. LEEBE (U.K.)<br />
The um <strong>of</strong> asmoreci data in estimating T - y ~ar floode<br />
-<br />
-<br />
L91 P.P. Pm!uzl?A (Brasil)<br />
Amesment <strong>of</strong> deeign noode in bradl -<br />
Eo] o. RIBIDON mmmo (U.S.A.)<br />
-<br />
A method for<br />
-<br />
the prediction <strong>of</strong> W o a d in certain d l<br />
wateraheäm<br />
FI] J.A. ROD= (fime)<br />
Méthodes utilidee gour l'kaiuation dee dbits<br />
-<br />
de crue des<br />
petits cour6 d'eau en r8gione tmpicalee
[la I A.A. SOICOIDI7 (U.S.S.R.)<br />
Methods for the estimationa <strong>of</strong> meximum dischargea <strong>of</strong> snowmelt<br />
and rainfall water vith inaàequate observational &ta -<br />
Ilq A.M. VLADMIROV, A.1. CHEBOTARGv (U.S.S.R.)<br />
Computation <strong>of</strong> pmbabilietic values <strong>of</strong> lot flow for ungaugeü<br />
rivers -<br />
T.B. WON (Korea)<br />
A study on maximum flood discharge fondee -<br />
437
ESTIMATION OF FLOODS BY MEANS OF THEIR SILT LOADS<br />
ABSTRACT<br />
Modesto Batlle Girona<br />
Dr. Civil Engineer<br />
An empirical and experimental formula <strong>of</strong> very simple<br />
structure is studied, to obtain €he flows <strong>of</strong> maximum floods in<br />
relation to the sediment loads that the floods produce, depen-<br />
ding o<strong>nl</strong>y <strong>of</strong> the maximum size <strong>of</strong> aridities <strong>of</strong> the channel.<br />
This formula can be useful to study also the behaviour <strong>of</strong> the<br />
river bed, alluvial volume, and so on.<br />
Se estudia una fórmula empírica y experimental de es<br />
tructura muy simple, para obtener los caudales de máximas cre-<br />
cidas en función de los arrastres que éstas producen, depen-<br />
diendo Únicamente del tamaño máximo de ’aridos del cauce. Esta<br />
fórmula puede ser Útil también para estudiar el comportamiento<br />
del lecho de los rios, volumen de acarreos, etc.
440<br />
ESTIMATION OF FLOODS BY MEANS OF TIIliIR SILT LOADS<br />
Based on the physical fact that every flood deposits<br />
a mass <strong>of</strong> arids whose maximum cliametres are proportional to<br />
the magnitude <strong>of</strong> the flood, by means <strong>of</strong> a reciprocal process<br />
an attempt was made to find a way <strong>of</strong> estimating tne discharge,<br />
obscrving the silt loads produced,<br />
Accordingly a very simple network formula has been<br />
obtained. In a series <strong>of</strong> 15 tests, the prevision <strong>of</strong> the<br />
maximum floods that have occurred could be made (correspond-<br />
ing to a return period between 100 and 500 years) WITH Ah'<br />
LRKOK bELOW 13%. To do so, one merely has to know the maximum<br />
size <strong>of</strong> the river-bed arids.<br />
Besides being a new instrument to calculate floods,<br />
this formula may, as indicated iii the "Summary" , open up an<br />
interesting field <strong>of</strong> investigation regarding mobility <strong>of</strong> the<br />
river beds, volume <strong>of</strong> bed-loads, etc,<br />
1. - FORMULA f'llOPOSEI3<br />
1.1. WORK SCHEME, -<br />
On the one hand, the maximum silt load diametre<br />
is function <strong>of</strong> the flood Jischargc.<br />
On the other hand, the arids are moved by the<br />
force <strong>of</strong> the silt load, wnicii is proportional to the gradient<br />
arid to tho draft.<br />
Considering the above two factors, a formula was<br />
sought which related the diametre <strong>of</strong> the deposited arid, <strong>with</strong><br />
the draft and gradient. The mathematical deduction <strong>of</strong> this<br />
relation is however inaccessible and a semi-empirical formula<br />
was sought, verifying it and deducting the unknown values <strong>of</strong><br />
same, by neans <strong>of</strong> experimentation.<br />
Once a relation was obtained between the diametre<br />
<strong>of</strong> the arids, tlie.gradiarit aiid the draft, this could be<br />
deducted from the previous ones, thus defining the maximum<br />
level obtained by the flood waters. Since the bed-section<br />
is also known, the discharge <strong>of</strong> the flood which has borne<br />
along the arid through this section, depositing it immediately<br />
downstream, can moreover be obtained.
441<br />
Once the purpose <strong>of</strong> the study was specified,<br />
a formula liad to be proposed which would relate maximum<br />
diametre-draft-gradient. The probing was systematized,<br />
and the proposed formula was verified and as already<br />
mentioned, the unknown coefficients <strong>of</strong> same wcre verified<br />
<strong>with</strong> a series <strong>of</strong> 15 samples or tests. The margin <strong>of</strong> error<br />
obtained was found and compared <strong>with</strong> other existing methods,<br />
The return period <strong>of</strong> the flood-waters calculated <strong>with</strong> the<br />
formula, was sought, defining an inferior limit, The possible<br />
limitations <strong>of</strong> the formula due to the petrography <strong>of</strong> the arids,<br />
the morphology <strong>of</strong> the basins used or the non-existence <strong>of</strong><br />
certain sizes <strong>of</strong> arid, were studicd. Finally, the conclusions<br />
drawn are summarized, All the documentation involvcd in the<br />
tests, regarding diametres <strong>of</strong> arids and drafts observed, was<br />
collected photograpliical ly .<br />
1.2. - MATilEMATIC OBTENTION OF TiíE PROPOSGL) FOIMULA<br />
Une tried to reach a formula, deducing it mathe-<br />
matically from the silt load force equàtions, but the<br />
influence on the larger arids cannot be defined quantitatively,<br />
nor can the protector inter-action which the silt loads <strong>of</strong>fer<br />
between themselves, in the face <strong>of</strong> the dynamic thrust <strong>of</strong> the<br />
current.<br />
Various hypothesis were used, but the subsequent<br />
elaboration did not crystallize into any practical formula.<br />
Ori the other hand, adopting one or another hypothesis as base,<br />
produced inadmissible differences <strong>of</strong> above 100%.<br />
In view <strong>of</strong> the above, it was decided to employ a<br />
semi-empirical formula, Its structure was obtained matliematically<br />
but it has been verified and defined from the experiments made.<br />
1.3. - UL.1)UCING A SEMI-EMPIRICAL FORMULA<br />
To obtain the formula in question, various methods<br />
were applied: a) .- considering the dynamic thrust on the arid;<br />
b).- balancing the silt load forces, The liermanek aiid<br />
Manning formulae were likewise used in one case or the other<br />
to determine the mean velocity,<br />
When using the Manning formula, the possibility was<br />
considered <strong>of</strong> the rugosity <strong>of</strong> the bed 'In" b e in g prop or t i ona 1<br />
to one sixth the power <strong>of</strong> the arid diametre. ïliis is correct<br />
in canals, but ir1 natural beds, the most accepted formulae <strong>of</strong><br />
river hydraulics (Ilermanek, Christen, Wiiikel, etc.) do <strong>with</strong>out<br />
the rugosity or adopt a constant value <strong>of</strong> same.<br />
Equations were reached through different channels,<br />
<strong>with</strong> identical structure:<br />
0b<br />
Ila = -.<br />
u. 1
442<br />
but in which the exponents a and b varied in terms <strong>of</strong><br />
the velocity distribution law, adopted. The degree <strong>of</strong><br />
parabolic speed distribution is normally one seventh,<br />
and it was <strong>with</strong> this value that a arid b were calculated.<br />
The values <strong>of</strong> "a" and "b" were also deduced in the hypo-<br />
thesis <strong>of</strong> supposing a one ninth degree distribution.<br />
ïiie results were:<br />
Degree <strong>of</strong> the speed<br />
distribution parabola 1/9 1/7<br />
E X P O N E N T a b a b<br />
Hermane k 1,28 O,78 1,21 0,71<br />
Manning: n = Cte<br />
Manning: n = Cte 0<br />
10<br />
- Manning: 11 = Lte<br />
Manning: 11 Cte 0 1/6<br />
1,11 0,78 1,OS<br />
1~11 1#11<br />
1,13 1,OO 1,O8<br />
1,13 1,33 1,08<br />
0,72<br />
1#O5<br />
1,OO<br />
1,33<br />
Nevertheless, the empirical<br />
-<br />
formula proposed and<br />
verified <strong>with</strong> tests, was, as will be seen later on:<br />
00,s<br />
. 11<br />
u.i<br />
The formulae obtained in the previous table (where<br />
the later experimental definition <strong>of</strong> B) is required,)<br />
iiave no faithful tradition in the reality <strong>of</strong> the river<br />
beds, as they give different values to those <strong>of</strong> the<br />
said formula where "a" =<br />
The most approximate<br />
In this, m = 7.<br />
1.4, - DLFINITION OF THE PROPOSED FORMULA<br />
The formula we are trying to verify, wkeby on<br />
experimentam obtaining the value <strong>of</strong> B, this value<br />
should be practically constant, was:<br />
1/2<br />
ii = am<br />
13. i
II = Draft expressed in centimetres,<br />
flm = blaximum diametre <strong>of</strong> the arid in centimetres,<br />
i = Gradient<br />
ki = Coefficient to be defined.<br />
44 3<br />
In each test, knowing the draft 11, obtained directly<br />
or from the discharge, in a sector, wliicli was termed "control",<br />
tlie 0 <strong>of</strong> tlie arids deposited in the area, if possible<br />
immedyately downstream <strong>of</strong> same, was defined, calculating:<br />
i/ 2<br />
B = am<br />
li. i<br />
The series <strong>of</strong> 15 tests undertaken, permitted a verification<br />
that coefficient B is almost constant; its value could be<br />
calculated, and at the same time tlie exponent 1/2 <strong>of</strong> 0 was<br />
found to be most suitable.<br />
m<br />
2.- RESULTS OBTAINED, -<br />
2.1. - MET1iOL)OLOGY<br />
First <strong>of</strong> all, a "control section" must be defined. Knowing<br />
the maximum historic flood in a prudential period, the draft<br />
corresporiding to H was calculated in it. This iì <strong>of</strong> the control<br />
section, was in certain cases measured directly after some<br />
important flood, through the traces <strong>of</strong> undergrowth and residues<br />
that the current left in tlie river bed shrubbery 0. The gradient<br />
i <strong>of</strong> the span corresponding to the control section was sought,<br />
and the maximum diametre 0 <strong>of</strong> the arids deposited downstream<br />
in this section was meacurgd. With this information, the<br />
following was calculated: 1/2<br />
B = k'm tl, i<br />
Control Section:<br />
The control section should be sited in stretches <strong>with</strong> as<br />
uniform system as possible. Consider the influence <strong>of</strong> bridges,<br />
etc. The arids should clearly define 6,.<br />
Gradients:<br />
The "i" adopted, is that <strong>of</strong> the stretch from 1 to 1,s kms.,<br />
immediately upstream from the control section, It is obtained<br />
from plan 1:50.000 <strong>of</strong> the Geographic and Cadastral Institute,<br />
rounding <strong>of</strong>f, if iiecessary, the excessive twists in the<br />
longitudinal section.<br />
- Draft:<br />
The "H" draft is measured from the lowest reading <strong>of</strong> tlie<br />
control section,
444<br />
izlaximiim diametre:<br />
The arids probe area for defining Øm will be chosen<br />
downstream the "cnntrol section" and as ncar to this as<br />
possible, so that the sizes observed are effectively the<br />
largest that have passed through this section,<br />
'To define the maximum diainetre, o<strong>nl</strong>y those rounded<br />
or parallel-epipedical shape arids will be suitable , whose<br />
smallest dimension is at least 2/3 (two thirds) the largest<br />
orie, The 0 value will be the mean <strong>of</strong> the largest two<br />
dimensions <strong>of</strong> the arid.<br />
The suitable arids for defining 0 should be found<br />
<strong>with</strong> a minimum density <strong>of</strong> 1 per every pwo square metres.<br />
Uy density, we understand the number <strong>of</strong> units in sight,<br />
per river bed surface, In some cases, this may even drop<br />
to 1 per 4 square metres.<br />
The choice <strong>of</strong> arids on which the 0 is going to be<br />
measured, demands a careful, critical judgement on same,<br />
considering the possibility <strong>of</strong> it coming from the erosioned<br />
sides and not upstream, that they may pertain to demolished<br />
works, or under construction, etc, Certain geological know-<br />
legge <strong>of</strong> the area will always prove most useful. Any kind<br />
<strong>of</strong> rock excepting slate is suitable.<br />
It should be emphasized that in minimum densities ,<br />
relation 2/3 <strong>of</strong> dimensions, etc., a qualitative common sense<br />
should always preside over ali rigorist criterion.<br />
It is important to take photographs <strong>with</strong> scales which<br />
will act as referenee so as to compare the field observations<br />
at the <strong>of</strong>fice.<br />
One must remember that the problem consists in a trans-<br />
port through the control section <strong>of</strong> the arids, which will be<br />
deposited immediately afterwards, and that they may even be<br />
covered by other finer ones, which have settled when the flood<br />
waters dropped.<br />
Qu a 1 i t y :<br />
To have a p;rudeiit judgement <strong>of</strong> the suitability <strong>of</strong> the<br />
tests made, they have been classified into GOOD (G), MEDIUM (M)<br />
and FAIR (F) , in accordance <strong>with</strong> the guarantee deserved by<br />
the definition <strong>of</strong> the data obtained li, am and i.<br />
pemarks :<br />
1.- In low river-bed spans, <strong>with</strong> very slight gradient, it<br />
is <strong>of</strong>ten difficult to define this on plans 1:50.000<br />
and ori a smaller scale, the bottom oscillations are<br />
excessive. In these cases, the river is also usually
very wide, and the transversal section presents siiarp<br />
relative <strong>of</strong>f-levels. In this case, the definition <strong>of</strong> 11<br />
must be closely examined, to avoid falling into errors.<br />
2.- In some cases, owing to the type <strong>of</strong> alluvial terrace<br />
in wliicli the bed is fouiid, the prehistoric and millenary<br />
arids cannot be differentiated from those corresponding<br />
ti1 the latest historic floods.<br />
2.2. KLSULTS OF TIIE TESTS.-<br />
Below, the data i, 1i and id obtained in each test, anci<br />
the resulting value <strong>of</strong> B are given:<br />
Test Nomenclature and Site i 11 0 yual Coeff<br />
;.i O ím) (CH) ity icient b<br />
445<br />
1 K. Llémana at crossroads 0,00822 2,81 18 M 1,84<br />
Main road S,Martfn de<br />
Llémaria<br />
2 R. Llémana in Sta, Afra 0,00590 3,45 19 li 2,13<br />
3 ‘ler in S.Julián de Kamis 0,00725 3,73 29 F 2,OO<br />
4 Ter in S.Julián de Kamis 0,00725 5,63 60 I: 1,90<br />
5<br />
6<br />
Ter in outlet <strong>of</strong> the Dar6<br />
Uñar at crossroads N-II<br />
Madri d - F r an c e li i g hw ay<br />
0,00100<br />
0,00300<br />
7,93<br />
5,42<br />
25<br />
10<br />
F<br />
G<br />
2,OO<br />
1,94<br />
7 R.Uerneda at bridge Riudellots,maximum<br />
flood 0,00237 5,lO 8 G 2,33<br />
8 K.berneda at bridge Riudellots,<br />
flood 11-X-70 0,00237 4,OO 5 G 2,05<br />
9 Tordera in Sai1 Celoni 0,00835 2,52 16 G 1,90<br />
10 Tordera in Tordera 0,00320 2,85 4 G 2,20<br />
11 R. Rifer in San Celoni 0,00120 1,05 7.5 G 2 , 16<br />
12 Corigost in La Carriga 0,00880 2,90 28 M 2,07<br />
13 Cardoner in Manresa 0,00435 4,65 18 G 2,09<br />
14 Llobregat in S.Vicente<br />
de Castellet 0,00345 5,85 22 G 2,32<br />
15 Llobregat in Martorell 0,00209 7,65 10 G 1,98
446<br />
2.3.- VERIFYING THE EXPONENT OF QIm.-<br />
In principle, the value 1 was adopteù as exponent <strong>of</strong> OmD<br />
proposing tiie formula: z<br />
-<br />
0,s<br />
am<br />
li<br />
r<br />
ìiowever, the value 0,s was later esteemed and its worth<br />
confirmed as the tests were made, owing to the scanty dispersion<br />
presented by the values <strong>of</strong> B obtained.<br />
The possibility <strong>of</strong> the dispersion <strong>of</strong> the resulting 13 being<br />
less <strong>with</strong> another exponent , is consequently likely.<br />
dased on the values i, li and 0,,, obtained in the tests, the<br />
b coefficient has been calculated for the following exponents<br />
<strong>of</strong> 0,,,: 0,4ü - 0,45 - 0,50 - 0,55 and 0,67.<br />
,A The typical<br />
E<br />
e<br />
0.55<br />
o<br />
u 0.50<br />
derivations obtained are:<br />
for B = 0, 0140/i H - T = 0,195<br />
for U = 0, i 11 -G = 0,175<br />
for B = 0m H - G = 0,143<br />
for U = 0, li - TT = 0,189<br />
8 0.45<br />
for B = 0, OaU7/i H - o = 0,484<br />
J<br />
0.40..<br />
- Desviación típico<br />
. 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5<br />
0.35<br />
1 7<br />
0.1<br />
In the figure, the aforementioned results are represented,<br />
and it can be seen how the minimum typical deviation corresponds<br />
to the 0,s thus verifying that this value is the most suitable<br />
as exponent <strong>of</strong> 0,.<br />
2.4 - CALCULATING THE COEFFICIENT U. -<br />
Having obtained the value <strong>of</strong> U for each <strong>of</strong> the 15 tests madc,<br />
what is proposed for the famula in question must be defined.<br />
In order to consider the quality <strong>of</strong> each test in the determination<br />
<strong>of</strong> B, by means <strong>of</strong> a prodent mean, the ones qualified as good<br />
(E) are assigned weight 3, the "mediumtv (M) , are given weight 2,<br />
and the "fair" (F) , weight 1. Tnus we get:<br />
B = 2,08lY2,08
-<br />
The value <strong>of</strong> the coefficient L4 adopted is:<br />
i3 2,08<br />
Whereby the formula proposed will be:<br />
2,08 . i<br />
li = maximum draft in centimetres (see 2.1)<br />
Bm= maximum diametre in centimetres (see 2.1)<br />
i = gradient (see 2.1)<br />
2.5 SIGNIFICATION wrE OF TIE TEST SERIES.-<br />
447<br />
The "signification rate" <strong>of</strong> tlie test series made, or in other<br />
words tlie quality <strong>of</strong> the whole ensemble <strong>of</strong> same and the mean i =<br />
2,08 was obtained. Accordingly, tiic likiliood <strong>of</strong> another value<br />
<strong>of</strong> B, obtained as a result <strong>of</strong> a new series <strong>of</strong> tests, being<br />
<strong>with</strong>in specific limits, was calculated.<br />
- (mean) aiid ';r (typical deviation) be the monthly<br />
characbgigtics <strong>of</strong> the series <strong>of</strong> Values <strong>of</strong> B obtained; tlie number<br />
<strong>of</strong> representative tests is n = 15.<br />
In tiie interval <strong>of</strong> possible values <strong>of</strong> B included between:<br />
cr<br />
and Y + tp .-<br />
if we choose a percentage <strong>of</strong> probability P (ex. p = 1%) where<br />
tiie value <strong>of</strong> the medn U <strong>of</strong> a new series <strong>of</strong> tests is outside these<br />
limits, in the table <strong>of</strong> function <strong>of</strong> Student for this 1% and n-1<br />
= 14 degrees <strong>of</strong> freedom, a value <strong>of</strong> tp is obtained <strong>with</strong> which<br />
the above mentioned "confidence interval" is defined. The<br />
probability p is the "signification level".<br />
-<br />
x = 2,OG; q= 0,143<br />
,* -<br />
- = 0,03823<br />
m<br />
According to tlie Student t8t" function table, we get:
448<br />
sigriification Value <strong>of</strong> tp<br />
Confidence limits<br />
G<br />
level p for 14 degrees t p . m Be 1 ow Above<br />
<strong>of</strong> freedom<br />
i¿-tp.m G - X*tp.fl=$y o-<br />
~~~~~ ~<br />
__ -~ ~~~~~<br />
0,l % 4,140 0,16 1,90 2,22<br />
1,o % 2,977 1,11 1,95 2,17<br />
2,o % 2,624 0,lO 1,96 2,16<br />
5,o % 2,145 0,08 1,98 2,13<br />
Thus, the probability that the mean <strong>of</strong> a new test series<br />
is between 1,95 and 2,17 is 99%.<br />
Let us set this conclusion out in terms more befitting<br />
our problem.<br />
The confidence interval between 1,95 and 2,17 admits a<br />
possibility below 1 %, that the 13 obtained in a new series is<br />
1,95; this represents a discrepancy <strong>of</strong> 0,11 in respect <strong>of</strong> the<br />
mean <strong>of</strong> 2,OG <strong>of</strong> the experimented series.<br />
This difference <strong>of</strong> 0,11 means an error <strong>of</strong><br />
o 11 I<br />
2,06 *'Oo' = 5B3 %<br />
in the appreciation <strong>of</strong> the drafts. Let us see how much this is<br />
?illen translated into flood water discharges:<br />
and if the section is approximately rectangular T I1 , Whereby:<br />
Ob7' i1l2,ki.b = 0,34 b.i 1/2 , 1i1,75<br />
Qi = 0,34 li ,<br />
Thus an erro,,i2 draft <strong>of</strong> 5,3% multiplies the discharge<br />
obtained by 1,053 = 1,095 which means an error <strong>of</strong> 9,5%.<br />
Therefore, the quality <strong>of</strong> the series <strong>of</strong> tests made and<br />
consequently that <strong>of</strong> the B value adopted, can be defined as<br />
follows:<br />
The probability<br />
-<br />
that in a new series <strong>of</strong> tests, the value<br />
<strong>of</strong> B defined for the formula proposed means an error in the<br />
determination <strong>of</strong> discharges, below 9,5%, in respect <strong>of</strong> those<br />
obtained <strong>with</strong> B 2,08, is 99%.
2.6. - MAXIMUM ERROR AND COMPARISON WITH OTIIER METIfODS. -<br />
In practice, to determine the maximum historic flood,<br />
applying the proposed formula, a certain number <strong>of</strong> tests<br />
should be made in certain other control sections <strong>of</strong> the bed,<br />
and finally obtain a mean, In this way, the inevitable errors<br />
and discrepances will be compensated for, and which will take<br />
place on defining the gradient (i) and in particular the<br />
maximum diametre (e,) <strong>with</strong> which to enter into the formula.<br />
The number <strong>of</strong> verifications will depend on the exactness<br />
to be obtained, and on common sense, in face <strong>of</strong> the data<br />
defined in each "control section". On an average, four tests<br />
may prove sufficient.<br />
Supposing that all the tests made correspond to a same<br />
bed, we can find the maximum possible error by mixing<br />
together the results <strong>of</strong> the whole series.<br />
The five tests <strong>with</strong> highest B values are 2,33<br />
2,20 -2,16 - - 2,32 -<br />
2,13; the mean is B 02~23.<br />
Similarly, the 5 tests <strong>with</strong> lowest B values are 1,90 -<br />
1,34 - 1,98 - 2,OS - 2,09; the mean is B = 1,99.<br />
In both series, those tests classed as "medium" (M) and<br />
"fair" (F) have been omitted,<br />
The difference between these means and the value B = 2,08<br />
<strong>of</strong> the formula is:<br />
2,23 - 2,08 a 0,15<br />
2,08 - 1,99 = 0,09<br />
Considering the most unfavourable case where the tests<br />
have given the 5 highest values <strong>of</strong> 8, whereby their mean would<br />
be B = 2,23 instead <strong>of</strong> U = 2,08, this means an error in draft<br />
appreciation <strong>of</strong> ;.tW O 15 .lo0 = 7.2%.<br />
-<br />
As seen in 2.5, this indicates that the real discharge<br />
has been multiplied by:<br />
1 , 0 7 2 ~ ~ 1,129 ~ ~ 1,13<br />
which means a 13% error,<br />
To conclude: THE MAXIMUM ERROR OBTAINED ~ViiliN ESTIMATING<br />
'ï1ii.i IIISTORIC FLOOD DISCHARGE, ACCORDING TO VERIFICATIONS MADG<br />
WITH THE PROPOSED FORMULA, IS 13%.<br />
Other calculation methods:<br />
Wit11 t h statistical method, the errors for return periods<br />
449
450<br />
above 50 years, may be around 20 to 3090.<br />
Specifically in the floods study <strong>of</strong> the Congost river<br />
made at the liydrographic Confederation <strong>of</strong> tlie East Pyrenees ,<br />
by the Measurerncnts Service, using the historia method, and<br />
for a 50 year return period, a discharge <strong>of</strong> 160 m3./sec. is<br />
obtained <strong>with</strong> the Gumbel method and 135 rn3./sec. <strong>with</strong> another<br />
law <strong>of</strong> distribution, which means a difference <strong>of</strong> 20% between<br />
iaoth methods. Applying the tational method to the same study,<br />
biie gets a discharge <strong>of</strong> 305 m3./sec. for the same return period.<br />
2.7. - RETURN PERIOD<br />
The return period <strong>of</strong> the floods <strong>of</strong> the various tests<br />
was also studied, to try and relate it <strong>with</strong> the discharges<br />
foreseen <strong>with</strong> the formula, and at least obtain a lower limit<br />
<strong>of</strong> samc.<br />
The return period <strong>of</strong> the floods for which the formula<br />
has been verified is:<br />
Test 1 -----__----_-_- 400 years<br />
Test 2 -------_-_---_- 400 years<br />
Test 3 -_----_----_--- 95 years<br />
Test 4 --------------- 95 years<br />
Test 5 --_------_---_- 95 years<br />
Test 7 -_------------- >70 years<br />
Test 8 -__------_----- >70 years<br />
Test 9 ---------_----- 90 years<br />
Test Il--------------- 1000 years<br />
Test 12--------------- 160 years<br />
Test 13--------------- 180 years<br />
Test 14--------------- 180 years<br />
Test IS--------------- 180 years<br />
In face <strong>of</strong> these figures, it would appear that the lower<br />
limit <strong>of</strong> tlie return period is 100 years,<br />
ilowever, it must be remembered that this conclusion is<br />
based on a series <strong>of</strong> i3 tests.<br />
As indicated in 2.8, the influence <strong>of</strong> wear throughout time<br />
is very scarce and does not change the return period <strong>of</strong> the<br />
floodwaters,<br />
It can therefore be said that the fbod obtained generally<br />
has a return period between 100 and 500 years.
2.3. - STUDY OF TIIE POSSIBLE LIMITATIONS<br />
Due to the petrography <strong>of</strong> the arids observed and their<br />
possible erosion:<br />
There is a possibility that the determination <strong>of</strong> the<br />
maximum diametre d has o<strong>nl</strong>y been made <strong>with</strong> certain rock<br />
types, as the othefs were excessively worn by the erosion,<br />
If this has occurred, in other areas where there are no<br />
arids <strong>of</strong> the most resistent types, false results <strong>of</strong> 0,<br />
could be obtained,<br />
To approach this problem, the petrographic classification<br />
<strong>of</strong> the arids was made, based on the photos obtained<br />
in the determination <strong>of</strong> the 0, <strong>of</strong> cach test, and which<br />
defined 0, <strong>with</strong> the following symbolics:<br />
A - Sandstone Co - Conglomerates Gn - gnes<br />
B - Basalts G - Granite and P - Slate<br />
C - Limestone<br />
eruptive rock Q - Quarzite<br />
The types <strong>of</strong> arid used in cach determination <strong>of</strong> the Ibrn<br />
were:<br />
451<br />
‘rest 6 ------------ 2A + 2G + 3Q<br />
Test 7 ------------- A + B + 2Co+ G + P + Q<br />
Test 8 ------------ 3B + 2G<br />
Test lo------------ (2A + B + CO + 2G * 34<br />
(A + B + G + 4Gn + 2A.<br />
Test Il------------ íG + 34<br />
(3A + 44<br />
Test 12- - - - - - - - - - - - 2A + 2G + Cn + 2q<br />
Test IS------------ SA + 2C + 2G + 3Gn + Q<br />
Test 14------------ 2A + 4C<br />
Test 15------------ SA + 14C + 24<br />
Test lb------------ (2A + 2C + Gn<br />
(2C + P<br />
Making a tctal used <strong>of</strong>: 26A + 13U + 32C + 3Co + 16G +<br />
+ 9Gn + 22Q<br />
In view <strong>of</strong> the above results! evidently the rock type<br />
does not influence the determination <strong>of</strong> the diametre, since<br />
all the classes appear as maximum arids (8 ) in considerable<br />
number (except the slates which will be dipcussed below) and<br />
it can therefore be supposed that the erosion, for the effects<br />
<strong>of</strong> the method adopted whep determining the 0, iii a way affects<br />
any type <strong>of</strong> mtk.
452<br />
This is because these arids are not from the bed downstream<br />
and they consequently o<strong>nl</strong>y suffer the effects <strong>of</strong> the river<br />
erosion <strong>with</strong> high waters or normal flooding, which take place<br />
intermittently arid not very frequently. On the other hand, the<br />
large adjustment obtained in the value <strong>of</strong> B makes one suppose<br />
the influence <strong>of</strong> the erosion in tlie various arids could not be<br />
important.<br />
It must however be emphasized tiiat the slate, as definers<br />
<strong>of</strong> tlie 0 o<strong>nl</strong>y appear twice, as a logical consequence <strong>of</strong> their<br />
greater tensitivity to the environment, as is deduced from the<br />
above table. For this reason, what lias been said in the above<br />
two paragraphs cannot be applied to the slate arids.<br />
We can consequently say that the definition <strong>of</strong> Om, is<br />
independent <strong>of</strong> the arid petrography except in the case <strong>of</strong> slates,<br />
which should not be used for the determination.<br />
ihe to the region studied:<br />
All the tests made have been in the provinces <strong>of</strong> Barcelona<br />
and Gerona. Therefore extrapolation to another type <strong>of</strong> basin<br />
could present doubts,<br />
In the enclosed table , the chief geographic characteristics<br />
<strong>of</strong> the tested basins are indicated.<br />
However, it should be stressed that the o<strong>nl</strong>y thing that<br />
can change the validness <strong>of</strong> the proposed formula, is the arid<br />
which defines 0, and according to the above paragraph, it has<br />
been considered that the formula is valid for any type <strong>of</strong><br />
rock (except slate).<br />
On the other hand, although not definite, it is most<br />
significant that in a later test made in the Guaro river <strong>of</strong><br />
tlie basin in Southern Spain, near Vélez-Malaga, the value <strong>of</strong><br />
the U coefficient obtained is:<br />
-<br />
B = 2,14<br />
whereas that adopted is B 2,08 which reprecents a 3% error.<br />
Although not conclusive, this result opeiis up a hopeful field,<br />
awaiting an extension <strong>of</strong> the tests to other regions.<br />
üue to the lack <strong>of</strong> arids:<br />
Thecase may arise <strong>of</strong> there being no arids <strong>of</strong> a diametre<br />
superior to a certain size, as they do not exist in the bed or<br />
because they are retained by some dam or weir. The lack <strong>of</strong> such<br />
arids does not produce any change since the floods correct the<br />
gradient <strong>of</strong> the river according to the existing sizes. In short<br />
stretches where the local effect <strong>of</strong> a weir modifies tlie gradient,<br />
this should be taken into account,<br />
b
The formula should be applied to river-beds whose<br />
possible mobile bottom during the flood later permits the maximum<br />
arids deposited by the flood peak to be discovered.<br />
If a mobile bottom <strong>of</strong> considerable thickness is produced,<br />
by means <strong>of</strong> burrows, the thickest deposits made by the flood<br />
peak should be reached, aiid if the sediment thickness is very<br />
important , the gradient adopted should be corrected. However ,<br />
none <strong>of</strong> this kind have been experienced in the tests.<br />
453
O<br />
4<br />
+J<br />
VI<br />
P,<br />
E-<br />
t.4<br />
o><br />
><br />
.FI<br />
d<br />
x<br />
+J<br />
.rl<br />
rl<br />
O<br />
U<br />
a<br />
a<br />
fl<br />
3<br />
d<br />
0<br />
3-<br />
V<br />
+<br />
45
3.- SUMMARY<br />
To obtain the draft (H) that has been produced in the<br />
maximum historic floods, knowing the size <strong>of</strong> the arids (Om)<br />
which may have been hauled along by this flood-water,<br />
across a section termed "control", and the bed gradient (li)<br />
the following formula is proposed:<br />
o, 5<br />
which should be experimentally checked when the coefficient<br />
U is defined.<br />
455<br />
The above formula could not be obtained mathematically;<br />
The most reached expressions <strong>of</strong> type:<br />
- the one nearest the proposed one is that where a 1<br />
0,67.<br />
and b =<br />
To define U, a series <strong>of</strong> 15 tests was made, obtaining<br />
B = 2,08.<br />
There was a possibility <strong>of</strong> the proposed formula not being<br />
correct, which would occur if the value <strong>of</strong> B obtained in the<br />
tests was variable. However these values ali varied around 2,33<br />
and 1,84. The typical deviation <strong>of</strong> the series was = 0,143,<br />
The series also helped to contrast the favourability <strong>of</strong> the<br />
exponent <strong>of</strong> 0, since the 0,s produces the minimum typical<br />
.devi at i on.<br />
The "signification level" <strong>of</strong> the mean <strong>of</strong> the series <strong>of</strong><br />
tests made, corresponding to the "confidence interval" between<br />
B = 1,95 and B = 2,17, is 99%. Expressed in other terms, it<br />
means that the l ikgmd <strong>of</strong> another value <strong>of</strong> B, defined by a<br />
new series <strong>of</strong> tests, having ari error in obtaining discharges,<br />
less than 9,5% (regarding those obtained <strong>with</strong> B = 2,08) is 99%.<br />
THE MAXIMUM ERROR IN DETERMINING DISCHARGES, ACCORDING TO<br />
TIIE SERIES OF 15 TESTS, IS 13%.<br />
The formula proposed is therefore:<br />
O m a ~ 5<br />
li =<br />
2,08.i<br />
li - Draft <strong>of</strong> the maximum historic flood in crns. defined<br />
according to 2.1.<br />
0,- Maximum diametre <strong>of</strong> the arid in crns. defined according to 2.1.
456<br />
i - Gradient <strong>of</strong> the bed, defined according to 2.1.<br />
2,08 - Coefficient <strong>with</strong> dimensions L<br />
-l/Z<br />
,<br />
Tlie methodology to define these figures is indicated<br />
in greater detail in 2.1.<br />
The return periods <strong>of</strong> the floodwaters estimated <strong>with</strong><br />
the formula are generally between 100 and 500 years,<br />
The control section is that in which i, II and the<br />
silt loads Ibm which have crossed it, are defined.<br />
In the river bed, whose discharge one wishes to define,<br />
a series <strong>of</strong> tests will be made in accordance <strong>with</strong> the<br />
precise ùegree <strong>of</strong> exactitude, and the guarantee that the data Bm<br />
and i <strong>of</strong>fer. An acceptable number may be four.<br />
The formula is valid for any type <strong>of</strong> arid, except the<br />
slates which should not be used to define firn.<br />
Tlie formula was applied to beds whose mobile bottom<br />
during the flood was sufficiently scarce to permit the<br />
maximum arids deposited by the flood peak to be later dis-<br />
covered. If this mobile bottom leaves the arids correspond-<br />
ing to the maximum discharge hidden, by the smaller arids,<br />
work may be done as indicated in 2.8, but in this study it<br />
was not necessary to experiment <strong>with</strong> buried arids.<br />
The 15 tests were made on the Catalan slope, The formula<br />
also appears acceptable in other regions, but it has o<strong>nl</strong>y<br />
been verified <strong>with</strong> a test in Malaga.<br />
This study does not pretend to have exhausted the<br />
subject, but merely initiatesa new field <strong>of</strong> operations.<br />
The series <strong>of</strong> tests can be expanded, The value <strong>of</strong> B can<br />
be adjusted more in accordance <strong>with</strong> the variations <strong>of</strong> am<br />
and i. The case <strong>of</strong> bed <strong>with</strong> far thicker mobile bottoms<br />
may be studied , during the flood as indicated in 2.8, analysing<br />
the buried arids. The observation <strong>of</strong> the arids need not<br />
be restricted to the surface, By means <strong>of</strong> burrows the<br />
diametres <strong>of</strong> the arids <strong>of</strong> the lower layers can be obtained,<br />
thus extending the period studied. It may be used to measure<br />
floods, previously photographing a panorama <strong>of</strong> the river bed<br />
arids, <strong>with</strong> sufficient detail and after the flood water to<br />
be studied, <strong>with</strong> another new photograph, establish the size<br />
<strong>of</strong> the silt loads contributed by it. The dimensioning <strong>of</strong> the<br />
protection rockfills <strong>of</strong> the river bed is defined <strong>with</strong> the<br />
proposed formula arid for the slopes, the pertinent corrections<br />
need merely be made, In terms <strong>of</strong> the draft <strong>of</strong> each flood,<br />
the silt laden arids cari be foreseen and <strong>with</strong> the granulometries<br />
<strong>of</strong> the bed, the sedimentation volume can be defined.<br />
The longitudinal section can be studied in terms <strong>of</strong> the
ADDITIONAL NOTE: Afìer the present doctoral thesis was<br />
approved, the author continued making a series <strong>of</strong> tests<br />
in various points in Spain, obtaining the following results:<br />
1. - Guadalquivir basin (Jacsi)<br />
-Kiver Guadalbullón in Mengibar; B -<br />
2.- Ebro basin (Calatayud)<br />
-River Jalón in Cetina;<br />
3.- Ebro basin (Calatayud)<br />
-River Jalón in Ateca;<br />
2,lO<br />
u<br />
-<br />
2,lO<br />
B 2,lS<br />
As can be seen, these values, added to the one obtained<br />
in the basin in the South <strong>of</strong> Spain (Malaga) in the river<br />
Velez Guaro, <strong>with</strong> B = 2,14, make solidly based hopes arise<br />
that the formula is applicable for all types <strong>of</strong> basins.<br />
At the same time, it brings the number <strong>of</strong> tests made<br />
up to 19, verifying the proposed formula,<br />
457
458
ESTIMATION OF DESIGN FLOODS AND THE PROBLEM OF EQUATING THE PROBA-<br />
BILITY OF RAINFALL AND RUNOFF<br />
M.A. Beran<br />
Floods Stuies Team, Institute <strong>of</strong> <strong>Hydrology</strong>, Wallingford, Berkshire,<br />
England.<br />
ABSTRACT<br />
Where data on river discharge are scarce it is a common engi-<br />
neering design practise to concoct a design flood <strong>with</strong> the aid <strong>of</strong><br />
rainfall depth-duration-frequency information and a catchment res-<br />
ponse model. Two major waknesses <strong>of</strong> this approach are (.a) the pro-<br />
blem <strong>of</strong> the sensitivity <strong>of</strong> the design to legitimate changes in the<br />
design assumptions and (b) the uncertainty <strong>of</strong> preserving the nomi-<br />
nal rainfall return period in the design flood. A solution to the-<br />
se problems is proposed which makes use <strong>of</strong> a computer simulation<br />
investigating the sensitivity <strong>of</strong> flood magnitude to variations in<br />
return period, storm duration, temporal rainfall intensity pattern,<br />
infiltration loss rate, base flow and unit hydrograph shape. An es<br />
tension to the sensitivity analysis allows an estimate to be made<br />
<strong>of</strong> any quantile <strong>of</strong> the distribution <strong>of</strong> flood magnitude based on<br />
sampling across all causative rainfall and antecedent conditions.<br />
RESUME<br />
El est courant, lorsque les données sur les débits sont insuf<br />
fisantes, que l'ingénieuc élabore la crue de projet 'a partir de<br />
l'information qu'il possede sur la distribution des pluies, en uti<br />
lisant un modèle de transformation pluies-débits. Les deux inconvk<br />
nients majeurs de ce procédé concernent (a) la sensibilité de l'am$<br />
nagement a la variation des paramètres du projet, (b) la conserva-<br />
tion de la période de Tetour (ou de la probabilité) lorsqu'on passe<br />
de la ptuie de projet a la crue de projet. L'auteur propose une so<br />
lution a ces problèmes, en utilisant une simulation pour recher-<br />
cher la sensibilité de la grandeur de la crue aux variations de la<br />
période de retour, de la durée de l'averse, de la configuration du<br />
hyétogramme, de la capacité d'infiltration, du débit de base, de<br />
la forme de l'hydrogramme unitaire. Une extension de cette analyse<br />
de la sensibilité permet d'estimer n'importe quelle quantité de la<br />
distribution des crues, en se basant sur un échantillonnage des<br />
pluies et des conditions antécédentes.
460<br />
3 . INTRODUCTION.<br />
Modern engineercg pract
2. THE SAMPLING PROCEDURE.<br />
461<br />
The procedure follows closely the steps used to estimate the design flood.<br />
(a)<br />
(b)<br />
(c)<br />
Determine a nominal return period<br />
Choose a storm duration and calculate the total depth <strong>of</strong><br />
rainfall from the depth-durat ion-frequency relationship.<br />
Distribute the total rainfall <strong>with</strong>in the duration to form<br />
the gross rainfall hyetograph.<br />
(d) Subtract from this an infiltration loss to form the net<br />
rainfall hyet ograph.<br />
(e)<br />
(f)<br />
Convolute the net rainfall hyetograph <strong>with</strong> the unit hydro-<br />
graph to form the design inflow hydrograph.<br />
Process the inflow hydrograph and extract the particular<br />
flood magnitude measure <strong>of</strong> interest.<br />
In practical engineering application an arbitrary single choice is made at each<br />
step (a) to (f); in the procedure described in this paper, however, the choice<br />
is made from a selection <strong>of</strong> possible values, each one <strong>with</strong> a frequency proport-<br />
ional to its probability <strong>of</strong> occurrence. Figure 1 illustrates the procedure as a<br />
tree diagram on which the "single choice" method would be represented by a single<br />
pat h.<br />
As implied in figure 1 the continuous distributions <strong>of</strong> variables such as<br />
rainfall duration are "discretized" so that each variable is made to assume o<strong>nl</strong>y<br />
one <strong>of</strong> a finite number <strong>of</strong> possible values to each <strong>of</strong> which a probability weight<br />
is attached. Twelve values <strong>of</strong> duration, 36 temporal intensity patterns and 12<br />
values <strong>of</strong> catchment wetness index (Cm .- and index <strong>of</strong> antecedent conditions<br />
governing infiltration loss and base flow) are used. In a separate study to<br />
provide rainfall information (Appendix 1) no dependences were noted between the<br />
rainfall variables and this assumption was made throughout the simulation. This<br />
means that the weights associated <strong>with</strong> each sampled variable value was itself<br />
invariable; for example the weights associated <strong>with</strong> each <strong>of</strong> the 12 CWI values is<br />
the same for 3 hour as for 48 hour duration storms. This particular consequence<br />
might represent some departure from actuality as, in the United Kingdom, both<br />
are seasonable variables.<br />
However assuming independence and discretizing allowed considerable simpli-<br />
fication in the programming and allowed the associated weights <strong>of</strong> each <strong>of</strong> the<br />
12 x 12 x 36 combinations to be calculated from the product <strong>of</strong> the weights <strong>of</strong><br />
each <strong>of</strong> the contributing variables. This product weight is associated <strong>with</strong> the<br />
flood magnitude in calculating statistics or assembling data into histograms.<br />
To summarise, let pi be the weigM(or probability) <strong>of</strong> the ith duration,<br />
Di ; let qj be the weight (or probability) <strong>of</strong> the jth hyetograph distribution,
462<br />
Hj; let rK be the weight (or probability) <strong>of</strong> the kth CWI, CK; and let QijK<br />
be the flood magnitude resulting from the combination <strong>of</strong> Di , Hj and Cu. Then<br />
under the assumption <strong>of</strong> independence the weight or probability to be associated<br />
<strong>with</strong> QijK is Wijk = pi qj rn and the expected flood magnitude is calculated from<br />
B E pi qjrn Qi~n , while the mean flood magnitude following al1 storms <strong>of</strong> say<br />
Fh'e fourth duration is calculated from E C W Qijh (Figures 2A and 2B).<br />
j K 41~<br />
Table 1 shows the results <strong>of</strong> the simulation for the IO -year return-period<br />
at Burbage and Grendon. The contingent distributions show the effect <strong>of</strong> different<br />
assumed values on the peak discharge. One noticeable result is that changes to<br />
the rainfall variables have small effect on the average peak discharge showing<br />
that the design flood would be insensitive to variations in hyetograph pattern<br />
or storm duration. This is not to say that floods resulting from storms following<br />
particular combinations <strong>of</strong> duration and hyetograph pattern cannot be found that<br />
depart from the average, but as can be seen from the low standard deviations <strong>of</strong><br />
peaks contingent on chosen CWI values centrally chosen rainfall variables will<br />
introduce little bias into the design flood. It has been found that this same<br />
effect is even more marked when the measure <strong>of</strong> flooding being investigated<br />
involves seme element <strong>of</strong> storage.<br />
On the other hand, small changes in the CWI have a marked effect on the<br />
resulting flood. It happens that a CWI value chosen to be near the median <strong>of</strong> the<br />
distribution <strong>of</strong> CWI would have yielded a peak discharge o<strong>nl</strong>y 5% in excess <strong>of</strong> the<br />
expected flood.<br />
Figure 3 shows some <strong>of</strong> the histograms <strong>of</strong> flood peaks following the 100-year<br />
storm. These are noticeably negatively skewed and the modal value is typically<br />
20% to 30% in excess <strong>of</strong> the mean. The inference from this is that a single choice<br />
<strong>of</strong> each <strong>of</strong> the variables is likely to yield a flood that exceeds the average flood.<br />
The sharpness <strong>of</strong> the histograms contingent upon CWI and the discrete sampling is<br />
responsible for the spikey nature <strong>of</strong> the other histograms.<br />
3. RAINFALL AND DISCHARGE DISTRIBUTIONS.<br />
It had been noted in Section 2 and Figure 3 that the probability distribu-<br />
tion <strong>of</strong> floods following rainfalls <strong>of</strong> fixed return period is negatively skewed.<br />
One might anticipate from this that T-year return-period storms tend on average<br />
to give rise to more floods <strong>with</strong> return period less than T-years than floods <strong>of</strong><br />
return period greater than T-years.<br />
To test this and to derive the flood distribution the simulation was gener-<br />
alised to sample the distribution <strong>of</strong> storm depths. Instead <strong>of</strong> sampling o<strong>nl</strong>y<br />
storms <strong>of</strong> depth and duration such as lie on a line <strong>of</strong> equal return period the<br />
sampling is now conducted across all combinations <strong>of</strong> storm depth and duration.<br />
The depth-duration-frequency is again used in order to calculate the probability<br />
<strong>of</strong> occurrence <strong>of</strong> any combination (Figure 2C).<br />
Figure 4 shows a comparison between the flood frequency relation as derived
463<br />
from the two simulations and from recorded flood peaks. In the case <strong>of</strong> Grendon<br />
Underwood there is an apparent tendency for the simulated relation to underestimate<br />
the flood discharge based on the recorded peaks. although independent<br />
evidence from regional analyses has suggested that the distribution as estimated<br />
from the six o<strong>nl</strong>y annual maxima would overestimate floods quite severely. However<br />
the agreement <strong>with</strong> Burbage Brook, a small upland catchment in the Derbyshire<br />
pennines <strong>with</strong> 43 years <strong>of</strong> data, is rather better. At small return periods the<br />
generalised simulation produced lower flood values than the expected flood<br />
following storms <strong>of</strong> that same return period.<br />
4. CONCLUSIONS.<br />
A technique has been described whereby the solution <strong>of</strong> several problems<br />
pertinent to hydrological design in regions <strong>of</strong> inadequate data may be approached.<br />
In particular, the sensitivity <strong>of</strong> the design flood to design assumptions can be<br />
assessed. Experience <strong>with</strong> the technique suggests that the size <strong>of</strong> the flood is<br />
determined more by the total depth <strong>of</strong> the rainfall than by its temporal distribu-<br />
tion through the storm's duration. Correct choice <strong>of</strong> loss rate is in consequence<br />
most important.<br />
It appears that median values <strong>of</strong> duration, temporal distribution and loss<br />
rate yield a design flood not far removed from the overall average flood follow-<br />
ing the T-year storm. Because <strong>of</strong> the skewed nature <strong>of</strong> the flood distribution a<br />
random choice <strong>of</strong> duration etc. would be more likely to yield a design flood<br />
rather larger than the overall average.<br />
The ability <strong>of</strong> the technique to reproduce tolerably well the flood magni-<br />
tude frequency relation could be <strong>of</strong> very great value at a site where flow data<br />
are scarce, whilst even at a well-endowed location the simulation result may be<br />
used <strong>with</strong> pr<strong>of</strong>it to augment the flow record.<br />
While attention has been concentrated on peak discharge as the measure <strong>of</strong><br />
flooding it should be emphasized that the technique is suited to more complex<br />
design criteria. The hydrograph may be treated as an inflow and routed through<br />
the scheme and so the actual design criteria <strong>of</strong> interest mqr be calculated.<br />
Examples are:-<br />
(a) volume between inflow and outflow hydrographs for reservoir<br />
freeboard design; (b) time to peak for a flood warning scheme; (c) volume over<br />
a threshold level for a levee design.<br />
The technique may also be adopted to use an entirely different catchment<br />
response model such as that inherent in the rational formula, a multiple<br />
regression equation or conceptual model although it can be expected that the<br />
data requirements will be rather different from those <strong>of</strong> this investigation.<br />
5. FUTURF RESEARCH.<br />
The simulation appears promising as a tool for assessing the sensitivity <strong>of</strong><br />
design floods to variations in their causative factors and in estimating the<br />
magnitude-frequency relationship for small return periods. However the technique<br />
has not succeeded in reproducing the observed rapid growth in flood discharge<br />
<strong>with</strong> increasing return period and it is here that further research is being
464<br />
direct ed.<br />
It is felt that the disparity between the definition <strong>of</strong> storms used to<br />
determine the distribution <strong>of</strong> depth and duration (Appendix A - Introduction)<br />
could be responsible for the "slow" growth and so long term autographic rainfall<br />
records are to be. analysed to provide information on the distribution <strong>of</strong> the type<br />
<strong>of</strong> storm used for the duration statistics.<br />
Further investigation into dependencies between the variables could produce<br />
results wkich would affect the aiscñarge distribution. For example seasonal simulation<br />
would reduce the coincidence <strong>of</strong> winter storm types <strong>with</strong> low summer CWI's<br />
and vice versa.<br />
The dependence <strong>of</strong> CWI on losses and base flow is essentially statistical<br />
and this source <strong>of</strong> variability could be preserved fn the simulation by the addition<br />
<strong>of</strong> a random quantity to the values predicted from the best fit lines.<br />
6. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS.<br />
Although few references have been cited the labours and opinions <strong>of</strong> others<br />
have played no small part in the development <strong>of</strong> the procedure. Colleagues and<br />
consultants <strong>of</strong> the United Kingam Floods Studies Team Dr. J.Y. Sutcliffe,<br />
Pr<strong>of</strong>essor J.E. Nash, Mr. M.J. Lowing, Mr. C. Cunnane, Mr. R.T. Clarke and<br />
Mr. A.F. Jenkinson have all provided advice and encouragement. Mrs. J. Haworth<br />
was responsible for the FORTFAN computer program and the numerical experiments<br />
were run on the ICL 1906A <strong>of</strong> the Science Research Council's computing laboratory.<br />
7. REFERENCES.<br />
1.<br />
2.<br />
3.<br />
4.<br />
5.<br />
6.<br />
NASH,J.E. ; "Frequency <strong>of</strong> discharges from ungauged catchments".<br />
Trans.A.G.U. , Vol. 37, No. 6, December 1956.<br />
CHOW,V.T. and RAMASESHAN,S. ; "Sequential generation <strong>of</strong> rainfall and<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f data". Proc. A.S.C.E., Journ. Hyd. Div. , Vol. 9, HY4, July 1965.<br />
EVANS,T. ; "River Eden flood relief studies". Feasibility report by<br />
Sir M. Macdonald and Partners for Kent River Authority. Chapter 4,<br />
September 1971.<br />
DYCK,S. and KLUGE,C. ; "Investigations on the structure <strong>of</strong> frequency<br />
distributions <strong>of</strong> floods". I.A.S.H. Warsaw, Vol. 3 , July 1971.<br />
EAGLESON,P.S. ; "The dynamics <strong>of</strong> flood frequency". Trans. A.G.U.,<br />
<strong>Water</strong> Resour. Res..Vol. 8, No. 4, November 1972.<br />
LECLERC , G. and SCHAAKE , J. C. ; "Derivat ion <strong>of</strong> hydrologic frequency<br />
curves from rainfall". <strong>Water</strong> Resour. Res. (in print).
TABLE 3<br />
FLOOD DISCHARGE FOLLOUNG 3 O-YEAR RETURN PERIOD STORMS.<br />
GFiENDON UNDERWOOD<br />
MEAN STANDARD<br />
DEY<br />
3<br />
m3/s m Is<br />
Overall 5.9 2.0<br />
Constant duration storms.<br />
1 hour<br />
3 hour<br />
6 hour<br />
9 hour<br />
12 hour<br />
15 hour<br />
18 hour<br />
21 hour<br />
24 hour<br />
30 hour<br />
36 hour<br />
48 hour<br />
4.5<br />
5.7<br />
6.2<br />
6.2<br />
6.2<br />
6. o<br />
5.9<br />
5.7 .<br />
5.0<br />
4.4<br />
4.0<br />
4.1<br />
I .6<br />
2.0<br />
2.1<br />
2.0<br />
2.0<br />
1.9<br />
1.8<br />
1.7<br />
1.5<br />
1.3<br />
1.2<br />
1.2<br />
Constant Quartile Type<br />
I 5.8 2.0<br />
II 6. o 2.0<br />
III 5.9 2.0<br />
IV 5. a 2. o<br />
Constant CWI<br />
i5<br />
35<br />
50"<br />
60<br />
1.6<br />
2.8<br />
55 70 3.9<br />
70 ao 4.7<br />
80 go 5.2<br />
90 100 5.6<br />
100 i10 6.1<br />
i10 120 6.6<br />
120 130 7.1<br />
130 140 7.7<br />
i40 150 8.3<br />
150 165 9.4<br />
0.2<br />
0.3<br />
O. 4<br />
0.5<br />
0.6<br />
0.7<br />
O. 7<br />
o. 8<br />
o. 8<br />
0.9<br />
o. 9<br />
1.0<br />
Recorded data<br />
Graphical '-<br />
fit 12.0 I<br />
MaX.<br />
Likelihood1 3.1 3. O<br />
MAXIMUM MINIMUM<br />
DISCHARGE<br />
m3/ s *3/s<br />
11.3<br />
7.7<br />
10.0<br />
33.3<br />
11.3<br />
11.1<br />
11.0<br />
10.9<br />
9.8<br />
9.1<br />
8.4<br />
8.9<br />
13.3<br />
10. 5<br />
10.5<br />
11.1<br />
1.9<br />
3.4<br />
4.8<br />
5.7<br />
6.4<br />
6.9<br />
7.5<br />
8.0<br />
8.6<br />
9.3<br />
10. 1<br />
11.3<br />
1.0<br />
3.0<br />
3.2<br />
1.4<br />
3.6<br />
1.6<br />
3.5<br />
1.6<br />
3.6<br />
1.4<br />
1.2<br />
3.1<br />
1.2<br />
1.0<br />
1 .O<br />
1.0<br />
1 .o<br />
1.0<br />
I. 8<br />
2.1<br />
2.3<br />
2-5<br />
2-7<br />
2.8<br />
3. O<br />
3.2<br />
3.4<br />
3.8<br />
4.6<br />
MEAN<br />
3<br />
m /s<br />
6.7<br />
4.8<br />
6.4<br />
7.3<br />
7.3<br />
7.0<br />
6.8<br />
6.5<br />
6.3<br />
5.8<br />
5.2<br />
4.7<br />
5.3<br />
6.2<br />
6.7<br />
6.8<br />
6.9<br />
1.3<br />
2.0<br />
2.9<br />
3.7<br />
4.4<br />
5.1<br />
5.8<br />
6.5<br />
7.3<br />
8.1<br />
9.0<br />
11.0<br />
BURBAGE BROOK<br />
STANDARD<br />
DEY<br />
3<br />
m /s<br />
3.9<br />
3.4<br />
3.8<br />
2.0<br />
3.9<br />
1.8<br />
1.7<br />
1.7<br />
1.6<br />
1.5<br />
3.4<br />
Y .2<br />
3.4<br />
1.8<br />
1 .8<br />
1.9<br />
2.0<br />
0.2<br />
0.3<br />
0.4<br />
0.5<br />
o. 6<br />
o. 6<br />
0-7<br />
0.8<br />
0.9<br />
1.0<br />
3.1<br />
1.2<br />
--<br />
8.6<br />
8.2 1.6<br />
* First figure refers to assumed CWI at Grendon, second to Burbage Brook.<br />
46 5<br />
MAXIMUM MINIMUM<br />
DISCHARGE<br />
3<br />
m /s<br />
14.0<br />
8.8<br />
13.5<br />
13.4<br />
14.0<br />
13.9<br />
13.7<br />
13.5<br />
13.4<br />
12.5<br />
33.7<br />
31.0<br />
12.3<br />
12. i<br />
12.7<br />
12.4<br />
14.0<br />
1 .6<br />
2.7<br />
3.7<br />
4.7<br />
5.6<br />
6.6<br />
7.5<br />
8.4<br />
9.4<br />
10.4<br />
13 -6<br />
14.0<br />
m3/5<br />
0.6<br />
0.6<br />
0.9<br />
1.3<br />
3.1<br />
1.2<br />
1.1<br />
1.1<br />
1 .O<br />
0.9<br />
0.8<br />
0.8<br />
0.9<br />
o. 6<br />
0.6<br />
0.6<br />
0.6<br />
0.6<br />
1.2<br />
1.7<br />
2.2<br />
2.4<br />
2-7<br />
2.9<br />
3.2<br />
3.5<br />
3.9<br />
4.4<br />
5.9
466<br />
APPENDIX A - DATA REQUIREMENTS.<br />
INTRODUCTION.<br />
Statistical distributions were required for the three modes <strong>of</strong> rainfall<br />
variability: depth, duration and temporal variability- for each catchment invest-<br />
igated. In order not to predetermine any <strong>of</strong> the variability modes it was necess-<br />
ary to define a storm in a manner u<strong>nl</strong>ike that <strong>of</strong> the customary rainfall depth-<br />
duration-frequency diagram. The definition was expressed k terms <strong>of</strong> the condi-<br />
tions for starting and ending a storm: a storm was considered to begin at the<br />
onset <strong>of</strong> rain and to end when in the preceeding Y hours not more than X mms <strong>of</strong><br />
rain occurred. X and Y were chosen to represent the conditions under which a<br />
flood hydrograph would return to near base flow and allowed sbrt spells <strong>of</strong> zero<br />
rainfall to occur <strong>with</strong>in a storm event.<br />
Hourly analysis <strong>of</strong> catchment average rainfall was available from three<br />
catchments; Grendon Underwood, Coalburn and Ply<strong>nl</strong>imon (Wye). Sufficient records<br />
were available to permit an investigation hto statistical distribution <strong>of</strong> storm<br />
durations and temporal patterns but not to conduct an investigation into storm<br />
depth. For this element <strong>of</strong> the simulation, results <strong>of</strong> a depth-duration-frequency<br />
analysis <strong>of</strong> the entire country were available from A.F. Jenkinson (Ref. Al).<br />
The catchment response model is one currently under investigation by the<br />
Floods Study Team. A relation between catchment wetness index (CWI) and total<br />
storm losses, and CWI and base flow was used. A unit hydrograph based on recorded<br />
unit hydrographs from the catchments were convoluted <strong>with</strong> the gross rainfall less<br />
losses.<br />
DETAILS OF THE SIMULATION DATA.<br />
(a) Rainfall depth: The basic equation used to relate the T-year return period<br />
rainfall <strong>of</strong> any duration (MT) to that <strong>of</strong> the five-year return period rainfall<br />
(~5) is<br />
MIM5 = (T/5)'<br />
where c is the "growth factor" and is related uniquely to M5 which is mapped<br />
for the entire United Kingdom. Other necessary information required by the<br />
simulation and provided in Ref. A1 concerns areal reduction factors to convert<br />
point to areaì rainfall.<br />
(b) Rainfall duration: This distribution is dependent upon the storm definition<br />
and for the values X = 2 m s, Y = 5 hours used for both Grendon Underwood and<br />
Burbage Brook simulation is given below<br />
STORM DURATION 1 3 6 g 12 15 18 21 24 30 38 48<br />
(HOURS )<br />
RELATIVE FREQUENCY 5 12 26 20 13 30 8 1 1 2 1 1<br />
(PER CENT)
It was found that the distribution was very similar for hoth upland and lobiland<br />
rainfall stations and varied slowly <strong>with</strong> changes to X and Y, longer storms<br />
becoming commoner as the conditions for ending a storm were relaxed.<br />
467<br />
(c) Temporal distribution <strong>of</strong> storm rainfall: Several alternative schemes for<br />
describing the hydrograph shape were investigated. The one chosen was due to<br />
F. Huff (Ref. A2) in which four quartile types are recognised depending upon in<br />
which <strong>of</strong> the four quarters <strong>of</strong> the storm duration tiïe largest rainfall fell. The<br />
fine detail <strong>of</strong> the hyetograph is sampled by plotting all curves <strong>of</strong> the same<br />
quartile type on a graph showing accumulating fraction <strong>of</strong> storm depth against<br />
fraction <strong>of</strong> total storm duration. Composite storms can then be constructed by<br />
connecting points which are exceeded by lo%, 202, 30% etc. <strong>of</strong> all storms. Sampl-<br />
ing from these composite storms is analogous<br />
from a distribution function in order to sample a variable in proportion to its<br />
frequency <strong>of</strong> occurence,and were used by the sfmulation. The shapes <strong>of</strong> the campos-<br />
ite storms were found to be insensitive to changes to the storm definition and<br />
were nearly indistinguishable between upland and lowland catchments. The percent-<br />
age frequency <strong>of</strong> the four quartile types were 12% type I, 32% type II, 35%<br />
type III, 21% type IV.<br />
(d) CWI distribution: CWI is calculated in nuns. from the soil moisture deficit<br />
(SMD) as computed by the Meteorological Office (Ref. A3) and a five day anteced-<br />
ent precipitation index (API5) using a daily decay constant <strong>of</strong> 0.5. The formuïa<br />
usedwasCWI = 125-SMD+API5. It had been observed in a recent study (Ref. Ab)<br />
that wet day rainfall and SMD were statistically independent and SO the end <strong>of</strong><br />
month values were adopted as representative <strong>of</strong> all cw? values. Oxford data nr&S<br />
used to provide the distribution for Grendon Underwood and Buxton for Burbage<br />
Brook. In the simulation a linear relation <strong>with</strong> CWI was used to calculate total<br />
storm losses and the reciprocal <strong>of</strong> the temporal variation <strong>of</strong> CWI as the storm<br />
progresses (assuming no evaporation to increase SMD) determined the loss rate<br />
curve. An exponential relationship <strong>with</strong> CWI determined the base flow.<br />
REFERENCES.<br />
Al<br />
A2<br />
A3<br />
A4<br />
to sampling at regular intervals<br />
JENKINSON,A.F. ; "Meteorological <strong>of</strong>fice progress report. January 1972".<br />
Report prepared for Floods Study Steering Committee.<br />
HUFF,F.A. ; "Time distribution <strong>of</strong> rainfall in heavy storms". <strong>Water</strong> Resour.Res.<br />
Vol. 3, No. 4, fourth quarter 1967.<br />
GRINDLEY,J. ; "Estimation and mapping <strong>of</strong> evaporation". 1970 I.A.S.H.<br />
symposium, Reading, I.A.S.H.<br />
BEM,M.A. and SUTCLIFFE,J.V. ; "An index <strong>of</strong> flood-producing rainfall based<br />
on rainfall and soil moisture deficit". Journ. <strong>of</strong> <strong>Hydrology</strong>, Vo1.17, 1972<br />
pp 229-236.
46b<br />
FIGURE 1
DuraîK<br />
M 1 etc.<br />
j<br />
~<br />
~<br />
FIGURE 2A FIGURE 2B<br />
WïES<br />
1 1 Consider case where two variables o<strong>nl</strong>y aFFect discharge Q, for example storm duration<br />
and CUI (Figure 24).<br />
For each Combination <strong>of</strong> duration and CWI a value OF Q md B probability <strong>of</strong> occurrence CU<br />
be calculated. For exsmple combining the duration in the Fourth interval, Dy, <strong>with</strong> the<br />
CWI in the second interval. C2, a discharge q(H) and a probability p(H) - p(D,,)xp(ci) arc<br />
ïoud<br />
'-1 Summing ail the probabilities in each discharge interval a discharge distribution [Fimi<br />
20) may be COOStmCted.<br />
) This concept can be generalised to sample From Further variables.<br />
I<br />
9<br />
Discharge den<<br />
/ / / /<br />
wm0. Durat ion<br />
a) Depth uld duration are plotted on the base plane ( Piwe 2c)<br />
b) Each coibtiatim ia assoeiited nith a probability <strong>of</strong> occurmce u) givm by thr depthduration-frequency<br />
diagni.<br />
c) Contingent on each depth duration ccmbination B diatribution <strong>of</strong> diachugai like Pipure<br />
OB CM be visudiaed on the vertical discharge arii.<br />
d) Integrating such densities above all points on the bue m e 011 locu. or =qual retur,,<br />
period yields the results <strong>of</strong> Section 2.<br />
0) Integrating over the entire base plane Yields the dihributim <strong>of</strong> diichuge <strong>of</strong> Section 3.<br />
FIGURE 2C<br />
469
470<br />
>-<br />
u<br />
æ<br />
W<br />
x<br />
E<br />
s<br />
i=<br />
0,<br />
W<br />
œ<br />
20-<br />
18.<br />
+<br />
l<br />
i 4<br />
I<br />
!<br />
I<br />
4<br />
I<br />
l<br />
l I<br />
PEAK DISCHARGË- M"/S<br />
Burbage Brook-Floods following 100-year Rainfalls<br />
Distribution <strong>of</strong> all floods<br />
Floods from storms <strong>of</strong> given duration<br />
Floods from storms <strong>of</strong> given CWI ---<br />
FIGURE 3
Q/C<br />
2.2<br />
2.0<br />
1.5<br />
1.0.<br />
O. 5<br />
O<br />
Return period-years<br />
I I I I I I<br />
2 33 5 IO 20 50 100<br />
Mean annual<br />
flood<br />
Most likely peak following storms <strong>of</strong> given return period<br />
\<br />
/'Simulated flood peaks<br />
following storms <strong>of</strong> given<br />
Peaks have been standardised by the arithmetic mean <strong>of</strong><br />
the recorded annual maxima 5.39 mYs.<br />
Plotting position corresponds to expected value <strong>of</strong> order statistic.<br />
Graphical fit to plotted points so'recorded'line misses (1,l).<br />
1 1 I I I I<br />
O 1 2 s 4 5<br />
Reduced variate- y<br />
FIGURE 4<br />
471
ABSTRACT<br />
A DECISION - THEORETIC APPROACH TO UNCERTAINTY<br />
IN THE RETURN PERIOD OF MAXIMUM FLOW VOLUMES<br />
USING RAINFALL DATA<br />
Donald R. Davis('), Lucien Duckstein(t:) Chester C. Kisiel('),<br />
and Martin M. Fogel<br />
The maximum seaaonal rUno#f YolUw Q #or an ungaged atream site is<br />
derived using (1) an event-based rainfall mode1 for thunderstorma, and<br />
(2) a linear rainfall-run<strong>of</strong>f model. Major emphasis is placed on effect<br />
<strong>of</strong> uncertainty in parameters <strong>of</strong> rainfall inputs on the return period <strong>of</strong><br />
maximum run<strong>of</strong>f volumes in a season. The event-based rainfall model, derived<br />
previously by the coauthors and others, has the following features:<br />
(1) the distribution <strong>of</strong> the number <strong>of</strong> events per season N is Poisson<br />
<strong>with</strong> mean m; (2) the d' 1s t ribution <strong>of</strong> point rainfall amount R per<br />
event is exponential <strong>with</strong> mean llu; (3) N and R are independent. More<br />
explicitly, we obtain a correct distribution function for the return pe<br />
riod T (x) under the uncertainty in m and u, and demonstrate the necessity<br />
0 P following this approach for a decision-theoretic analysis <strong>of</strong> a<br />
water resource design problem. The approach enables us to design structures,<br />
relying o<strong>nl</strong>y on rainfall data, on watersheds <strong>with</strong> ungaged<br />
streams by taking into account uncertainty <strong>of</strong> design site parameters.<br />
Also, we cari tailor the design to a specific problem rather than use a<br />
pre-specified design flood, such as the magical lOO-year flood.<br />
RESUME<br />
Le volume d'écoulement maximum est calculé 2 un site non instrumenté,<br />
en utilisant: (1) un modele de pluie d'orage construit par événe<br />
ment; (2) un modèle pl,uie-débit linéaire. La maniere dont l'incertitudë<br />
sur les paramètres du modèle de pluie affecte la période de récurrence<br />
TQ(x) du volume $'écoulement maximum Q est analysée d'une manière quantitative,<br />
Le modele de pluie d'orage a les caractéristiques suivantes:<br />
(1) se nombre d'événements par saison N suit une distribution de Poisson<br />
a moyenne m; (2) la quantité de pluie ponctuelle R par événement<br />
suit une distribution exponentielle de moyenne l/u; (3) N et R sont des<br />
variables aléatoires indépendantes, Nous obtenons la fonction dti distri-<br />
bution de TQ(x) tenant compte<br />
de l'incertitude sur m et u et montrons<br />
l'utilité de cette méthode pour une application correcte de la théorie<br />
de la d6cision à un problème de planification de ressources en eau.<br />
Nous pouvons ainsi de conceyoir des ouvrages sur des bassing déversants<br />
sans données d'écoulement, a l'aide de données pluvincgtriques, tout en<br />
tenant compte de l'incertitude sur les paramètres. Par ailleurs<br />
pouvons spécialiser la conception & chaque cas d'e;tpèce au lieu'd:ItTli<br />
ser une crue standard, telle la magique crue de pêriode de retour centë<br />
naire.<br />
1 Respectively, Assistant Pr<strong>of</strong>essor and Pr<strong>of</strong>essors, on joint appointment,<br />
Departments <strong>of</strong> <strong>Hydrology</strong> and <strong>Water</strong> Reaources and Sistems and fndustrial<br />
Engineering, University <strong>of</strong> Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85321,<br />
2 Pr<strong>of</strong>essor, Department <strong>of</strong> <strong>Water</strong>shed Management, Same address as in.(l),
474<br />
1.0 Introduction<br />
Fle,ods or stream discharges are properly described by their durations and<br />
volumes above a certain flow level and their instantaneous peak flows. Of<br />
~I1cs.e three properties, this paper is concerned <strong>with</strong> the uncertainty in the<br />
return period <strong>of</strong> maximum flow volumes which is a design parameter for flood pro-<br />
tection and other structures. In particular, we consider the uncertainty due tc<br />
inadequate data on small watersheds (up to 500 lon2).<br />
Jt is well known that there is a good chsnce that a flow event Q.<strong>with</strong> a<br />
large return period TR may be exceeded at least once in an R-year design period.<br />
Typically, however, calculated risk diagrams (Gilman, 1964) do not consider the<br />
uncertainty in the return periods <strong>of</strong> rainfall and flow events. TO a design<br />
engineer, the uncertainty <strong>of</strong> inadequate rainfall or flow data cari result in either<br />
overinvestment (overdesign) or underinvestment (economic losses) in the design <strong>of</strong><br />
flood retarding or retention structures or <strong>of</strong> water storage facilities (farm<br />
ponds or water supply reservoirs for small towns or industries). The Bayesian<br />
framework presented in this paper allows<br />
logic uncertainty as noted above and for<br />
for an explicit<br />
a methodology<br />
consideration <strong>of</strong> hydroto<br />
evaluate potential<br />
losses associated <strong>with</strong> that uncertainty.<br />
Approaches takea to arrive at estimates <strong>of</strong> the return period <strong>of</strong> hydrologie<br />
f'low properties include:<br />
(a) tipirical fitting <strong>of</strong> probability density functions to historical data;<br />
in particular, the Soi1 Conservation Service (1965) fitted Pearson<br />
Type III distributions ta flow volumes for various time periods in<br />
Arizona. This approach disregards any available information in precipitation<br />
records or any knowledge about the rainfall-run<strong>of</strong>f prccess.<br />
(h) Use <strong>of</strong> phenomenological relations such as a linear trensformation <strong>of</strong><br />
rainfall volume to flow volume as a basis for obtaining probability<br />
density functions (pdf) <strong>of</strong> flow. The pdf <strong>of</strong> rainfall volume may be<br />
denrribed empiri~ally (<strong>with</strong> its consequent uncertainty) or from a<br />
procesc viewpoint .,herein individual rainfall events are modeled as<br />
(c)<br />
a stochastic process along the time axis<br />
Use <strong>of</strong> detailer! dynemical flow equations<br />
(Duckstein<br />
to relate<br />
et al. 1972).<br />
pdf <strong>of</strong> rainfall<br />
psoperties to pdf <strong>of</strong> flow properties (Ragleson, 1972).<br />
In this paper we use the second approach. Herein we build on previaus work<br />
(Davis et al. 1972) where we evaluated the ucertainty in the return period <strong>of</strong><br />
point rainfall amounts from summer thunderstorms. We define an event-based<br />
process in this case as a sequence <strong>of</strong> thunderstorms in tine. The return period<br />
TR(k) <strong>of</strong> maximum point rainfall e (<strong>with</strong> k the rainfall smount or value <strong>of</strong> the<br />
random variable 5) is derived by considering the following elements <strong>of</strong> the<br />
event-based nrocess:<br />
(a) l?hë number 1; <strong>of</strong> events per season is Poisson distributed <strong>with</strong> met-a m<br />
(<strong>of</strong> number <strong>of</strong> events per season):<br />
b)<br />
(cl<br />
(d)<br />
Rainfall events 53, R,,..., are independent identically distributed<br />
random variables.<br />
The amo\‘Jit 5 <strong>of</strong> point rainfall per t\sent is exponentially distributed<br />
<strong>with</strong> parsmeter u (equal to reciprocal <strong>of</strong> mean emount rainfall per event):<br />
fR(klu) = ueBuk<br />
N and 5 are indepenaent.
Then, the return period <strong>of</strong> k units <strong>of</strong> rain in a season, given the event-based<br />
parameters m and u, is<br />
Because m and u are uncertain due to small sample size, T is uncertain.<br />
475<br />
To encode the uncertainty, the posterior distribution <strong>of</strong> m and u represents<br />
the likelihood <strong>of</strong> the values <strong>of</strong> m and u which produced the data. This posterior<br />
is given by the conjugate distributions for the exponential and Poisson distributions<br />
(de Groot, 1970, Chapt. 9). The distribution that is conjugate to both<br />
<strong>of</strong> these is the gamma:<br />
a a-1 -bx<br />
b x e<br />
gX(xla,b)<br />
-. = r(a) (4)<br />
For the Poisson distributution,<br />
x = m , the parameter <strong>of</strong> the Poisson and estimated as m.<br />
b = n , the number <strong>of</strong> seasons.<br />
a = &-I , the total number <strong>of</strong> rainfall events in n seasons.<br />
For the exponential distribution,<br />
x = u , the parameter <strong>of</strong> the exponential and estimated as Û.<br />
a = &-I , the total number <strong>of</strong> rainfall events in n seasons.<br />
b = h/û, the total amount <strong>of</strong> rainfall for the mn events.<br />
The resulting F (x)s in each case are posterior distributions and represent<br />
z<br />
the likelihood that various values <strong>of</strong> m and u axe the values describing the rainfall<br />
process that we are observing, after getting the data. These posterior<br />
distributions are used in a computer simulation to develop the posterior distribution<br />
<strong>of</strong> TR(k). The mean <strong>of</strong> this distribution is the expected return period<br />
E[T (k)Tl fo; a k-inch rainfall.<br />
R<br />
Computer results' given by Davis, et al. (1972)<br />
indicate that the return period <strong>of</strong> point rainfall is subject to considerable<br />
uncertainty even <strong>with</strong> 20 years <strong>of</strong> data. The design and operational implications<br />
are obvious for flood control, dry farming <strong>with</strong> irrigation, and water supply.<br />
Next, we extend the procedure to uncertainty in return periods <strong>of</strong> seasonal flow<br />
volumes on small watersheds.<br />
2.0 Extension to Seasonal Flow Volumes<br />
If m is the total number <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f producing rainfall events in a summer<br />
season, then the exact expected return period T (y) <strong>of</strong> the maximum seasonal<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f volume Q is, under our previous hypotheses,<br />
T& (ylm,u) = [i-exp I-m + m F (ylu)~~-l (5)<br />
9<br />
where F (ylu) is the distribution function <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f per event CJ which we will<br />
9<br />
9 Q<br />
write F (y) for simplicity. Our approach is to obtain F (y) from the distribution<br />
function F (x) <strong>of</strong> rainfall 5 per event, using the linear rainfall-run<strong>of</strong>f relation-<br />
R<br />
where A are the initial abstractions depending on the watershed and c is a coefficient<br />
depending on the rainfall characteristics for a given watershed, in<br />
particular, a time factor such as the maximum 15-minute intensity (Duckstein<br />
et al. 1972).<br />
--<br />
Q<br />
R
476<br />
If we let<br />
p = !-A for R > A I<br />
= o for 5 < A<br />
then Equation (6) becomes = CP -- or y = cx; the distribution function <strong>of</strong> P - is<br />
Fp(x) = 1 -exp (-u(x+A)) for x > O (7)<br />
and thit <strong>of</strong> €j (Feller, 1967, Chapt. 2) is<br />
m<br />
FQ(y) = I,"p($) fC(c) dc<br />
because c is a random variable as noted in previous work by the coauthors<br />
(Duckstein et al. 1972). Since, physically, we cannot obtain more run<strong>of</strong>f than<br />
rainfall, then O 5 c 51, and a beta distribution for c seems to be most appro-<br />
Driate:<br />
The uncertainty on a,b will not be considered in the present study.<br />
Equations (7), (8) and (9) may be combined to obtain<br />
(9)<br />
To sum up,<br />
Equations (10) and (11) are now substituted into Equation (5) to obtain an explicit<br />
expression <strong>of</strong> Tg (ylm,u). Because we have the sufficient statistics,<br />
fi and a, our knowledge <strong>of</strong> m and u can be expressed as a pdf !Tiao and Box, 1973).<br />
Hence, this encoded uncertainty results in a pdf on T (ylm,u).<br />
3. O Met hodolopy<br />
To obtain the pdf <strong>of</strong> the return period on hand, T (ylm,u,n) is a problem <strong>of</strong><br />
transformation <strong>of</strong> random variables, where a closed form is beyond reach.<br />
Thus, a simulation approach is used as follows: (a) consider a fixed<br />
yearly maximum flow volume Q = yo, and (b) sample values m,u are drawn from the<br />
conjugate pars.<br />
-<br />
%(mlfi,n) and gu(uli,n), respectively, as noted in our discussion<br />
<strong>of</strong> Equation (b), (c) these sample values are substituted into T (y,Im,u) to<br />
obtain one value <strong>of</strong> the return period T<br />
8<br />
and (a) the process is repeated to<br />
0'<br />
obtain pdf <strong>of</strong> T for a fixed y (for example yo = Q = 0.7 inch in Table 1).<br />
9<br />
A similar procedure is then used to calculate the pdf <strong>of</strong> (T )-', which is<br />
9<br />
the probability <strong>of</strong> exceedance <strong>of</strong> y . The design parameter <strong>of</strong> interest may be<br />
O<br />
either T (for sizing a small dam) or (T (estimating long-range replace-<br />
B 9<br />
ment costs <strong>of</strong> structures.)<br />
Finally, to be considered in a later study is the pdf <strong>of</strong> maximum seasonal<br />
flow Q that corresponds to a fixed return period. Such a pdf may be <strong>of</strong> interest<br />
for flood plain insurance purposes and can be calculated by the same simulation<br />
procedure as above.<br />
Q<br />
9
ABSTRACT<br />
A DECISION - THEORETIC APPROACH TO UNCERTAINTY<br />
IN THE RETURN PERIOD OS MAXIMUM FLOW VOLUMES<br />
USING RAINFALL DATA<br />
(1) (1)<br />
Donald R. Davis"), Lucien Duckstein (2j Chester C. Kisiel ,<br />
and Martin M. Foge1<br />
The maximum seas.ona1 Trino$$ YolYge for an ungaged styeam site is<br />
derived using (1) an eyent-based rainfall podel $or thunderstorms, and<br />
(2) a linear rainfall-run<strong>of</strong>f model. Major empñasis is placed on effect<br />
<strong>of</strong> uncertainty in parameters <strong>of</strong> rainfall inputs on th-e return period <strong>of</strong><br />
maximum run<strong>of</strong>f volumes in a season. The event-based rainfall model, de-<br />
rived previously by the coauthors and others, has the following featu-<br />
res: (1) the distribution <strong>of</strong> the number <strong>of</strong> events per season N is Pois-<br />
son <strong>with</strong> mean m; (2) the distribution <strong>of</strong> point rainfall amount R per<br />
event is exponential <strong>with</strong> mean 1Lu; c3) N and R are independent, More<br />
explicitly, we obtain a correct distribution function for the return pe<br />
riod T (x) under the uncertainty in m and u, and demonstrate the neces-<br />
sity 09 following this approach for a decision-theoretic analysis <strong>of</strong> a<br />
water resource design problem. The approach enables us to desigr, struc-<br />
tures, relying o<strong>nl</strong>y on rainfall data, on watersheds <strong>with</strong> ungaged<br />
streams by taking into account uncertainty <strong>of</strong> design site parameters.<br />
Also, we can tailor the design to a specific problem rather than use a<br />
pre-specified design flood, such as the magical 100-year flood.<br />
Le volume d'écoulement maxjmum est calculé i un site non instru-<br />
menté, en utilisYnt: (1) un modele de pluie d'orage construit par 'evéne-<br />
ment; (2) un modele pluie-débit linéaire. La maniere dont l'incertitude<br />
sur les paramètres du modèle de pluie affecte la période de récurrence<br />
TQ(x) du volume d'écoulement maximum Q est analysée d'une maniere quan-<br />
titative. Le modèle de pluie d'orage a les caractéristiques suivantes:<br />
(1) le nombre d'événements par saison N suit une distribution de Pois-<br />
son à moyenne m; (2) la quantité de pluie ponctuelle R par événement<br />
suit une distribution exponentielle de moyenne l/u; (3) N et R sont des<br />
variables aléatoires indépendantes. Nous obtenons la fonction de distri<br />
bution de TQ(x) tenant compte de l'incertitude sur m et u et montrons<br />
l'utilité de cette m'ethodf pour une application correcte de la théorie<br />
de la décision à un probleme de planification de ressources en eau.<br />
Nous pouvons ainsi de conceroir des ouvrages sur des bassing déversants<br />
sans données d'écoulement, a l'aide de donn'e$s pluviométriques, tout en<br />
tenant compte de l'incertitude sur les parametres. Par ailleurs, nous<br />
pouvons spécialiser la conception à chaque cas d'espèce au lieu d'utili<br />
ser une crue standard, telle la magique crue de période de retour cent:<br />
naire.<br />
'Respectively, Assistant Pr<strong>of</strong>essor and Pr<strong>of</strong>essors, on joint appointment,<br />
Departments <strong>of</strong> <strong>Hydrology</strong> and <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> and Sìstems and Industrial<br />
Engineering, University <strong>of</strong> Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721.<br />
2Pr<strong>of</strong>essor, Department <strong>of</strong> <strong>Water</strong>shed Management, Same address as in (1).
474<br />
1.0 Introduction<br />
Floods or stream discharges are properly described by their durations and<br />
volumes above a certain flow level and their instantaneous peak flows. Of<br />
briese three properties, this paper is concerned <strong>with</strong> the uncertainty in the<br />
return period <strong>of</strong> maximum flow volumes which is a design parameter for flood protection<br />
and other structures. In particular, we Consider the uncertainty due to<br />
inadequate data on small watersheds (up to 500 h2).<br />
It is well known that there is a good chance that a flow event 9 <strong>with</strong> a<br />
large return period T may be exceeded at least once in an N-year design period.<br />
Typically, however, calculated<br />
R<br />
risk diagrams (Gilman, 1964) do not consider the<br />
uncertainty in the return periods <strong>of</strong> rainfall and flow events. To a design<br />
engineer, the uncertainty <strong>of</strong> inadequate rainfall or flow data can result in either<br />
overinvestment (overdesign) or underinvestment (economic losses) in the design <strong>of</strong><br />
fiood retarding or retention structures or <strong>of</strong> water storage facilities (farm<br />
ponds or water supply reservoirs for small towns or industries). The Bayesian<br />
framework presented in this paper allows for an explicit consideration <strong>of</strong> hydrologic<br />
uncertainty as noted above and for a methodology to evaluate potential<br />
losses associated <strong>with</strong> that uncertainty.<br />
Approaches taken to arrive at estimates <strong>of</strong> the return period <strong>of</strong> hydrologic<br />
flow properties include:<br />
(a) Rupirical fitting <strong>of</strong> probability density functions to historical data;<br />
in particular , the Soil Conservation Service (1965) fitted Pearson<br />
Type III distributions to flow volumes for various time periods in<br />
Arizona. This approach disregards any available information in precipitation<br />
records or any knowledge about the rainfall-run<strong>of</strong>f process.<br />
(b) Use <strong>of</strong> phenomenological relations such as a linear transformation <strong>of</strong><br />
rainfall volume to flow volume as a basis for obtaining probability<br />
density functions (pdf) <strong>of</strong> flow. The pdf <strong>of</strong> rainfall volume may be<br />
described empirically (<strong>with</strong> its consequent uncertainty) or from a<br />
process viewpoint wherein individual rainfall events are modeled as<br />
a stochastic process along the time axis (Duckstein et al. 1972).<br />
(c) Use <strong>of</strong> detailed dynamical flow equations to relate pdf <strong>of</strong> rainfall<br />
properties to pdf <strong>of</strong> flow properties (Eagleson, 1972).<br />
In this paper we use the second approach. Herein we build on previaus work<br />
(Davis et al. 1972) where we evaluated the uncertainty in the return period <strong>of</strong><br />
point rainfall amounts from summer thunderstorms. We define an event-based<br />
process in this case as a sequence <strong>of</strong> thunderstorms in time. The return period<br />
T<br />
R<br />
(k) <strong>of</strong> maximum point rainfall (<strong>with</strong> k the rainfall amount or value <strong>of</strong> the<br />
random variable FJ) is derived by considering the following elements <strong>of</strong> the<br />
event-based process:<br />
(a) The number N <strong>of</strong> events per season is Poisson distributed <strong>with</strong> mean m<br />
(<strong>of</strong> number <strong>of</strong> events per season):<br />
(b) Rainfall events R -1, G2, ..., are independent identically distributed<br />
random variables.<br />
(c) The amount <strong>of</strong> point rainfall per event is exponentially distributed<br />
<strong>with</strong> parameter u (equal to reciprocal <strong>of</strong> mean amount rainfall per event):<br />
fR(klu) = ue -Uk<br />
(a) $ and R are independent.
477<br />
4.0 Results<br />
The results <strong>of</strong> the computer simulation are summarized in Tables 1 and 2 and<br />
Figures 1 and 2. In these we consider the variance <strong>of</strong> c, representative <strong>of</strong> conditions<br />
on the watershed, and the variance in our knowledge about rainfall<br />
parameters m and u.<br />
Table 1 shows that u, the average rain per event, is much more important<br />
than m, the average number <strong>of</strong> storms per season, as judged by the variance <strong>of</strong><br />
T ,(Var !? ), for different values <strong>of</strong> Var c. We also note the following<br />
9 9<br />
(a As Var c increases, EL?,? and Var ? decrease, Thus by not randomizing<br />
9<br />
C the estimated return period <strong>of</strong> Q = 0.7 is much higher. By varying C<br />
the variable effects <strong>of</strong> rainfall intensity and watershed behavior on<br />
the return period are anticipated;<br />
(b) Var T increases dramatically when Var $ = O for joint uncertainty in<br />
9<br />
m and u;<br />
(c) The mean reciprocal return period (= exceedance probability = p) and<br />
,. -1<br />
Var T increase rapidly as Var c increases. This result is shown<br />
9<br />
because p is commo<strong>nl</strong>y used as the design parameter in hydrologic risk<br />
analysis.<br />
These patterns hold for all values <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f volume used in the sensitivity analysis<br />
(Q = 0.5, 0.7 and 0.9 inches <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f) as shown in Table 2.<br />
As expected, the Var T decreases <strong>with</strong> doubling <strong>of</strong> available data (10<br />
9<br />
to 20 years used in the simulation) as summarized in Table 2. The E[id is o<strong>nl</strong>y<br />
slightly changed. A more general manifestation <strong>of</strong> the simulated process is evident<br />
in Figure 2 where the posterior pdf (<strong>of</strong> return periods for 0.7-inch run<strong>of</strong>f) based<br />
on 20 years <strong>of</strong> data has a much sharpy modal value than the posterior pdf based<br />
on 10 years <strong>of</strong> data; note that mear, T is just to the right <strong>of</strong> the mode. While<br />
9<br />
not shown, the posterior pdf's become more peaked as Var c increases.<br />
The effect <strong>of</strong> increasing run<strong>of</strong>f Qolume is to increase E[Td, Var T and<br />
9<br />
coefficient <strong>of</strong> variation CV(T ) as shown in Table 2. The latter result about<br />
9 I<br />
CV(TQ) also implies that a Var T increases more rapidly than E[Td. It is<br />
9<br />
intriguing to note the dramatic effect that the introduction <strong>of</strong> Var has on the<br />
parameters.<br />
The results in Table 2 for n = 10 years are shown in Figure 1, a plot on<br />
Gumbel extreme value paper. As previously noted, as Var c increases the smaller<br />
"Liil. From the tabulated results we note that so-called confidence limits for<br />
ea& line would get wider as T increases because Var T increases <strong>with</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
61 9<br />
volume. These confidence limits are narrower for n = 20 years <strong>of</strong> data as is<br />
evident from Table 2.<br />
Of interest is the modest computer time (maximum <strong>of</strong> 25 seconds for 20 years<br />
<strong>of</strong> data) per simulation run on the CDC-6400. Given the number <strong>of</strong> uncertain<br />
parweters in this problem, it does not appear feasible to prepare charts and<br />
graphs for routine design use u<strong>nl</strong>ess more exhaustive computer studies are performed.<br />
4.1 Comments on Results A<br />
In contrast to the classical empirical frequency approach in deriving T 9,
478<br />
the event-based approach outlined here results in evaluation <strong>of</strong> uncertainty in<br />
.<br />
T from physically meaningful parameters like m and u. This is a much more<br />
Q<br />
efficient use <strong>of</strong> the available data on rainfall and run<strong>of</strong>f.<br />
We have seen how the design would depend on the uncertainty in m and u and<br />
on the interaction between*uncertainty in m and u and Var C. The end result, a<br />
posterior distribution on T is <strong>of</strong> value to inference on hydrologic stochastic<br />
9’<br />
processes as discerned from limited data <strong>of</strong> value to the next important step<br />
<strong>of</strong> invoking Bayesian decision theory for evaluating design decisions and for<br />
judging if better designs are possible by waiting for-additional cata.<br />
It would be desirable to express the moments (ErTJ and Var T ) <strong>of</strong> the<br />
Q<br />
posterior pdf in terms <strong>of</strong> m, u, Q and C, but this is intractable. -The next<br />
approach for thinking about our results in simpler terms is to consider the<br />
mean and variance <strong>of</strong> 5 = cp:<br />
ECQI = EC~J CIFI<br />
Var = E2[C] Var P + E2[P]<br />
- Var C + (Var C) - (Var P) -<br />
as given by Benjamin and Cornel1 (1970, p. 169).<br />
equations become E[g = CE[?] and Var 9 = C2 Var p.<br />
When C is not random, these<br />
The variance <strong>of</strong> Q (and<br />
thus its frequency <strong>of</strong> exceedance and its return period) is dramatically affected<br />
by randomization <strong>of</strong> C. It is common in hydrologic design to choose a “frequency<br />
factor” z (or standardized variate) in the relation 9 = Ere] + z (Var Q) 1/2 .<br />
.<br />
To contrast properly this classical approach to finding a design flow Q <strong>with</strong> the<br />
method outlined in this paper wou1.d require a full-fledged decision theoretic<br />
analysis for a specific design problem. The evaluation would have to be repeated<br />
for each design use <strong>of</strong> the posterior pdf. Much work remains to be done in this<br />
direction.<br />
4.2 Relationship <strong>of</strong> results to Bayesian decision theory<br />
Let the loss function for the design <strong>of</strong> a flood protection structure, say<br />
a dike, be L(h,T) where h is the height <strong>of</strong> the dike and T is a design return<br />
period such as T or an exceedance probability (T )-l. The result <strong>of</strong> our<br />
a 9<br />
investigation was to determine the posterior pdf f (t) as given in Figure 2.<br />
Thus, we are now able to calculate Bayes risk, which corresponds to the optimum<br />
design h*<br />
+m<br />
BR(h*) = min L(h,t) fT(t)dt (14)<br />
.<br />
h o<br />
We can also calculate the worth <strong>of</strong> sample information to sharpen the estimate<br />
<strong>of</strong> T (Davis et al. 1972) for each intended use <strong>of</strong> the data. Such studies are<br />
9<br />
left for the sequel. It is very important to emphasize that the worth <strong>of</strong> data<br />
discerned by this methodology is based on the economic loss function associated<br />
<strong>with</strong> a particular design use <strong>of</strong> the data; the results are not in terms <strong>of</strong> the<br />
variance <strong>of</strong> the return estimate (return period in this case).<br />
5.0 Conclusions<br />
It is important to keep in mind when judging the results <strong>of</strong> the research<br />
reported here that we are dealing <strong>with</strong> maximum flow volumes generated by a sequence<br />
<strong>of</strong> thunderstorms during a season. Additional work is necessary to extend the<br />
T
479<br />
approach to other run<strong>of</strong>f-producing precipitation events (including snow) during<br />
the year. The use <strong>of</strong> the Gumbel distribution in this paper goes beyond its<br />
classical use for the instantaneous rainfall and flood maxima during the year.<br />
We thus have found the following points in our theoretical and simulation<br />
arialy,is :<br />
The approach enables us to design structur'es, relying o<strong>nl</strong>y on rainfall<br />
data, on watersheds <strong>with</strong> ungaged streams by taking into account<br />
uncertainty <strong>of</strong> the site parameters,<br />
Using this approach we can tailor the design to a specific problem<br />
rather than use a pre-specified design flood, such as the magical<br />
100-year flood.<br />
Simulation is an appropriate method for evaluating uncertainty in<br />
estimates <strong>of</strong> physically-meaningful parameters arising in the eventbased<br />
approach.<br />
Return period varies <strong>with</strong> record length rainfall, and watershed events,<br />
etc. We have given an event-based approach to evaluate this variation.<br />
The sensitivity analysis demonstrates the dramatic importance <strong>of</strong> uncertainty<br />
in the average amount <strong>of</strong> rainfall per event and the importance<br />
<strong>of</strong> considering variability in the rainfall and watershed parameter<br />
called C in this paper.<br />
The resats, if encoded in the posterior pdf <strong>of</strong> the return period<br />
TI, allow the user to exercise inference or to find sensitivity <strong>of</strong> the<br />
analysis to design decisions in the face <strong>of</strong> inadequate data. Bayesian<br />
decision theory is the framework suggested for undertaking the decision<br />
analysis.<br />
The results have implications for design <strong>of</strong> a variety <strong>of</strong> hydraulic structures<br />
in both urban and rural watersheds, in temperate and arid climates, and in<br />
regions <strong>of</strong> the world confronted <strong>with</strong> inadequate hydrologic data. In the face<br />
<strong>of</strong> changing watershed conditions, as reviewed by Fogel, et al. (1972), the<br />
approach <strong>of</strong>fered in this paper permits exercise <strong>of</strong> judgment on the effects <strong>of</strong><br />
lack <strong>of</strong> knowledge and <strong>of</strong> nonstationary meteorologic and hydrologic parameters<br />
such as m, u and C. In o w jument, classical empirical frequency methods do<br />
not provide such a clear basis for evaluation. Extension to no<strong>nl</strong>inear water-<br />
shed models are possible as noted by Duckstein, et al. (1972) and Fogel, et al.<br />
(1972).<br />
6. O Acknowledgments<br />
The work was supported in part by U.S. National Science Foundation Grant<br />
GK-35791 and by a matching grant (Decision Analysis <strong>of</strong> <strong>Water</strong>shed Management<br />
Alternatives) from the U.S. Office <strong>of</strong> <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Research. !Che computer<br />
programming skills demonstrated by Joel Friedman have contributed substantially<br />
to the realization <strong>of</strong> the results.<br />
7.0 References<br />
BenJanin, J.R. and C.A. Cornell. Probability, Statistics and Decision for Civil<br />
Engineers, McGraw-Hill Book Co., New York, 1970.<br />
Davis, D.R., L. Duckstein, C.C. iíisiel, and M. Fogel. Uncertainty in the return<br />
period <strong>of</strong> maximum events: A Bayesian a.pproach. Proceedings, International<br />
Symposium on Uncertainties in Hydrologic and <strong>Water</strong> Resource Systems,<br />
University <strong>of</strong> Arizona, Tucson, Arizona; 1972, pp. 853-862.
480<br />
Davis, D.R., C.C. kïsiel and L. Duckstein. Bayesian decision theory applied<br />
to design in hydrology, <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Research, Vol. 8, No. 1,<br />
February 1972, pp. 33-41.<br />
de Groot, M.H. Optimal Statistical Decisions. McGraw-Hill Book Co., New York,<br />
1967.<br />
Duckstein, L., M.M. Fogel and C.C. Kisiel. A stochastic model <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>fproducing<br />
rainfall for summer type storms, <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Research,<br />
Vol. 8, No. 2, April 1972, pp. 410-421.<br />
Eagleson, P.S. Dynamics <strong>of</strong> flood frequency, <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Research, Vol. 8,<br />
NO. 4, August 1972, pp. 878-898.<br />
Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and its Applications, Vol. 2.<br />
John Wiley, New York, 1967.<br />
Fogel, M.M., L. Duckstein and C.C. Kisiel. Choosing hydrologic models for<br />
management <strong>of</strong> changing watersheds, Proceedings, National Symposium on<br />
<strong>Water</strong>sheds in Transition (American <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Association) , Fort<br />
Collins, Colorado, June 1972, pp. 118-123.<br />
Gilman, C.S. Rainfall (Section 9). In "Handbook <strong>of</strong> Applied <strong>Hydrology</strong>,"<br />
Edited by V.T. Chow, McGraw-Hill Book Co., New York, 1964, pp. 9-59.<br />
Soil Conservation Service, Run<strong>of</strong>f volume-duration-probability analyses for<br />
selected watersheds in Arizona. Central Technical Unit, <strong>Hydrology</strong><br />
Branch, SCS, U.S. Dept. <strong>of</strong> Agriculture, April 1965.<br />
Tiao, G.C. and G.E.P. Box. Some comments on "Bayes" estimators, The American<br />
Statistician, Vol. 27 (i), February 1973, pp. 12-14.
Table 1: Sensitivity anaiysikon return period moments as<br />
function <strong>of</strong> uncertain parameters for rural water-<br />
shed <strong>with</strong> o<strong>nl</strong>y 10 years <strong>of</strong> data.<br />
Jncertain<br />
)arameters Var C<br />
l&U O<br />
.O005<br />
.O05<br />
* O5<br />
)<strong>nl</strong>y m .O005<br />
.O05<br />
O5<br />
<strong>nl</strong>y u .O005<br />
.O05<br />
* O5<br />
flean T (years<br />
?<br />
~<br />
A<br />
Moments <strong>of</strong> return period T<br />
cv( TQ)**<br />
.,<br />
41.82<br />
39.00<br />
26.33<br />
6.30<br />
35.36<br />
23.41<br />
6.20<br />
37.61<br />
24. i4<br />
6.52<br />
Var I<br />
Q -<br />
538.<br />
442.<br />
153.<br />
2.35<br />
8.30<br />
3.89<br />
t 19<br />
383.<br />
110.<br />
1.96<br />
.555<br />
.539<br />
.470<br />
.243<br />
.o81<br />
.O84<br />
.O70<br />
.521<br />
.435<br />
.215<br />
~~ ~<br />
Reciprocal<br />
return period -<br />
nean variance<br />
.O00299<br />
.o00318<br />
.o00328<br />
.o01809<br />
* Conditions for the analysis: A = 0.4 inches, mean C = 0.3 for beta<br />
distribution, Q = 0.7 inches on the average; rainfall is<br />
distributed on basis <strong>of</strong> an exponential distribution for<br />
amounts above 0.3 inches <strong>with</strong> an average <strong>of</strong> 14.0 storms/<br />
season and an average <strong>of</strong> 0.39 incheslevent.<br />
*+ Coefficient <strong>of</strong> variation <strong>of</strong> T s-<br />
481
Average<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
volume Q<br />
0.5<br />
Table 2: Sensitivity analysis on return period moments<br />
asa fun&ion <strong>of</strong> rainfall P, length <strong>of</strong> record n<br />
ànd variance <strong>of</strong> C; both m and u are uncertain;<br />
watershed is rural; conditions are as noted in<br />
Table 1.<br />
n<br />
(years <strong>of</strong><br />
data)<br />
Var <<br />
I<br />
Moments <strong>of</strong> return period 'f<br />
9<br />
&lean (years<br />
I<br />
~ ~-<br />
10 .o01 11.70<br />
58.07 .650<br />
.O05<br />
O5<br />
6.97<br />
2.94<br />
14.90<br />
- 27<br />
.553<br />
* 177<br />
20 .O05 6.25 4.38 ,335<br />
10 O<br />
.O005<br />
.O05<br />
O5<br />
41.82<br />
39.00<br />
26.33<br />
6.30<br />
20 37.44<br />
10 O<br />
.O05<br />
O5<br />
24.36<br />
271<br />
103<br />
6.41<br />
14.29<br />
~~~<br />
538<br />
441<br />
153<br />
245<br />
68<br />
48,085<br />
3 , 602<br />
20 .O05 95.95 1,721 I<br />
2.35<br />
1.09<br />
21.25<br />
.432<br />
.555<br />
.539<br />
.470<br />
,243<br />
.418<br />
.339<br />
.163<br />
.809<br />
.582<br />
.323
I .o<br />
O. 8<br />
v,<br />
w<br />
I<br />
o<br />
z 0.6<br />
-<br />
-<br />
w<br />
z<br />
3<br />
-I<br />
$ 0.4<br />
LL<br />
IL<br />
O<br />
Z<br />
3 0.2<br />
O<br />
2 5 IO 20 50<br />
RETURN PERIOD, YEARS<br />
100 200<br />
Figure 1: The effect <strong>of</strong> the varlance <strong>of</strong> C on tha Teturn<br />
period <strong>of</strong> pun<strong>of</strong>f volume.<br />
483
w<br />
3<br />
o<br />
w<br />
CE<br />
LL<br />
484<br />
.25 -<br />
.20 -<br />
.I5 -<br />
.IO -<br />
.O5 -<br />
RETURN PERIOD, YEARS<br />
Figura 2: Posterior prooabilitr densiTy function <strong>of</strong> return periods<br />
f o 0.7-i’nch ~<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f <strong>of</strong> record length.<br />
O
ABS TRACT<br />
SYNTHETIC UNIT HYDROGRAPH TECHIQUE FOR THE<br />
DESIGN OF FLOOD ALLEVIATION WORKS IN URBAN AREAS<br />
by<br />
M.J. Hall<br />
Lecturer in Civil Engineering, Imperial College<br />
<strong>of</strong> Science and Technology, University <strong>of</strong> London<br />
The development <strong>of</strong> rural land for urban, suburban or industrial<br />
purposes can radically alter the flow regime <strong>of</strong> the catchment area WL<br />
thin which such changes take place. The volume <strong>of</strong> surface run<strong>of</strong>f tends<br />
to increase, the lag time <strong>of</strong> the flood hydrograph to decrease and the<br />
peak rate <strong>of</strong> flow to increase. These ch-anges should be anti’cipated in<br />
the design <strong>of</strong> flood alleviation works for catchment areas undergoing<br />
urbanisation, but in general, little quantitative information is avai<br />
lable on the magnitude <strong>of</strong> the effect at different stages <strong>of</strong> urban de-<br />
velopment. If flow records are available from several catchment areas,<br />
each <strong>of</strong> which has reached a different stage <strong>of</strong> urban development, the<br />
finiteperiod unit hydrographs derived from these data can be used as<br />
an index to the influence <strong>of</strong> urbanisation. The application <strong>of</strong> a syn-<br />
thetic unit hydrograph technique to flow records from both urban and<br />
rural catchment areas <strong>with</strong>in the headwaters <strong>of</strong> the River Mole near<br />
Crawley, United Kingdom, has confirmed the feasibility <strong>of</strong> the<br />
approach but has shown that more thought is necessary in choosing cai<br />
chment characteristics which reflect the character <strong>of</strong> the urban deve-<br />
lopment.<br />
RESUME<br />
L’utilisation des espaces ruraux pour le développement urbain et<br />
industriel peut changer radicalement le régime hydrol2gique des bas-<br />
sins concernés. Le volume du ruissellement tend a croitre, le temps<br />
de réponse du bassin à décoitre et les pintes de crues s’amplifient.<br />
Lors de l’élaboration des projets, ces modifications devraint être<br />
prévues et on devrait chercher à atténuer l’effet des crues par des<br />
travaux appropigs, mais on ne dispose en général que d’une informa-<br />
tion très succincte sur l’importance de cet effet aux différents sta-<br />
des du développement urbain. Si on dispose de relevés de débits sur<br />
plusieurs bassins atteints à des degrés différents par le développe-<br />
ment urbain, on peut utiliser les hydrogrammes unitaires tirés de ces<br />
données pour constituer des indices concernant l’influence de l’appli-<br />
cation d‘u?e technique d’hydrogramme unitaire synthétique aux débits<br />
observés, a l’issue de bassins urbains et ruraux, dans le bassin sup5<br />
rieur de la Mole, pres de Crawley (Royaume Uni), a confirmé les possi<br />
bilités de cette méthode; elle a montré aussi que le choix des caracy<br />
téristiques du bassin reflétant l‘influence du d6velo;pement urbain<br />
demandait une sérieuse réflexion.
486<br />
I. INTRODUCTION<br />
According to Toynbee [I], almost half the World's population had become<br />
urban by 1969. This increase in the urban population has been accompanied<br />
by an even more marked expansion in the area occupied by streets and buildings.<br />
The development <strong>of</strong> rural land for urban, suburban and industrial purposes is<br />
characterised by two important physical changes, both <strong>of</strong> which may have a pr<strong>of</strong>ound<br />
effect on the hydrological cycle <strong>of</strong> the area <strong>with</strong>in which such urbanisation<br />
takes place.<br />
Firstly, the area covered by relatively impervious surfaces increases,<br />
thereby increasing the proportion <strong>of</strong> storm rainfall which becomes surface run-<br />
<strong>of</strong>f. Owing to the concomitant decrease in soil moisture recharge, dry weather<br />
flows are reduced.<br />
Secondly, the natural surface water drainage system <strong>of</strong> the area is invariably<br />
subjected to a variety <strong>of</strong> changes, ranging from realignment <strong>of</strong> channels to the<br />
installation <strong>of</strong> stormwater sewerage. Since the flow velocities in the modified<br />
drainage network are generally higher than those observed in the orlginal<br />
natural channel system, both the time-to-peak and the length <strong>of</strong> the recession<br />
<strong>of</strong> storm hydrographs tend to decrease as a catchment is urbanised.<br />
The increased<br />
volume <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f, and the shorter time <strong>with</strong>in which that volume is discharged,<br />
inevitably produce peak rates <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f that are markedly higher than the flow<br />
records from a catchment in its previous rural state would tend to indicate.<br />
Although the effects <strong>of</strong> urbanisation on the flow regipie <strong>of</strong> a catchment<br />
area have been appreciated qualitatively for over a decade [2], relatively<br />
little information has been available on the magnitude <strong>of</strong> the changes brought<br />
about by different forms <strong>of</strong> urban development. Of particular importance to<br />
the engineer concerned <strong>with</strong> the design <strong>of</strong> flood alleviation works for urban<br />
areas are<br />
i)<br />
ii)<br />
the frequency distribution <strong>of</strong> peak rates <strong>of</strong> flow ; and<br />
the shape <strong>of</strong> the flood hydrograph.<br />
The changes in the magnitude <strong>of</strong> the parameters <strong>of</strong> the frequency distribution<br />
<strong>of</strong> annual floods caused by urbanisati)onhave been studi,ed by Carter [3],<br />
Martens [4] and Anderson 151, each <strong>of</strong> whom approached the problem by means <strong>of</strong><br />
regional analysis. Much <strong>of</strong> the work on changes in the shape <strong>of</strong> flood hydrographs<br />
has employed a similar treatment, <strong>with</strong> the finite-period unit hydrograph<br />
(TUH) being used as an index to catchment response. Flow records for<br />
catchment areas in different stages <strong>of</strong> urban development <strong>with</strong>in the same<br />
hydrologically homogeneous region have been used to derive WH's <strong>of</strong> a predetermined<br />
duratiqn. Selected parameters <strong>of</strong> these !CUH's have then been expressed<br />
in terms <strong>of</strong> pertinent catchment Characteristics using multiple linear regression<br />
analysis. The relationships so obtained may then be employed to derive TUHts<br />
for both ungauged catchments and gauged catchments in a more advanced state <strong>of</strong><br />
development. For example, Espey et al [6] used 5 hydrograph parameters : peak<br />
rate <strong>of</strong> flow ; time-<strong>of</strong>-rise and base length <strong>of</strong> the hydrograph ; and hydrograph<br />
widths at 50 and 75 per cent <strong>of</strong> the peak discharge. Since the catchment<br />
characteristics selected by those Authors did not ipclude any parameter reflecting<br />
changes in the surface water drainage system, an empirical coefficient (
L<br />
ref. river<br />
no.<br />
1 Mole<br />
- Mole<br />
2 Gatwick Stream<br />
3 Ifield Brook<br />
4 Crawters Brook<br />
5 Crawters Brook<br />
487<br />
that simple one and two-parameter linear conceptual models can be used to<br />
advantage in characterising the changes iq catchment response caused by urbanisation.<br />
However, a prerequisite to either approach is the availability <strong>of</strong><br />
hydrometric data for a sufficiently large number <strong>of</strong> urban and rural catchment<br />
areas to effect a regional analysis. Where the number <strong>of</strong> flow records is<br />
limited, techniques which employ as few hydrograph parameters as possible are<br />
an obvious advantage.<br />
In the following paper, a dimensio<strong>nl</strong>ess unit hydrograph technique which<br />
involves the use <strong>of</strong> o<strong>nl</strong>y one parameter is outlined. The method <strong>of</strong> approach<br />
is illustrated by means <strong>of</strong> data from an area in the south-east <strong>of</strong> England.<br />
The paper begins in Section (2) <strong>with</strong> a brief description <strong>of</strong> the area and the<br />
available hydrometric data, and continues in Section (3) <strong>with</strong> an outline <strong>of</strong><br />
the method by which TüH's were derived. The regionalisation <strong>of</strong> these TüH's<br />
is discussed in Section (4). The paper concludes in Section (5) <strong>with</strong> a brief<br />
diqcussion <strong>of</strong> the existing data inadequacies in Urban <strong>Hydrology</strong>.<br />
2. DATA PRXPARATION<br />
2.1 Data inventory<br />
Between 1949 and 1969, the population <strong>of</strong> Crawley, a town situated some<br />
30 miles to the south <strong>of</strong> London, increased from 5,000 to 68,000. The<br />
developed area i? drained by the headwaters <strong>of</strong> the River Mole, a south-bank<br />
tributary <strong>of</strong> the River Thames. !Che western side <strong>of</strong> the town drains to Ifield<br />
Brook, whereas the centre and eastern sides are served by Crawters Brook and<br />
Gatwick Stream respectively (see Figure 1). A major part <strong>of</strong> the urban area<br />
lies on Weald Clay overlying Tunbridge Wells Sand, the latter outcropping to<br />
the south <strong>of</strong> the area. The average annual rainfall in the Crawley region<br />
(1916-1950) ranges from 750-850 rnrn.<br />
There are 6 gauging stations <strong>with</strong>in the area <strong>of</strong> interest, the details<br />
<strong>of</strong> which are summarised in Table 1. Both the gauging statipns on the River<br />
Mole and that on Gatwi.ck Stream are operated by the.Thames Conservancy ;<br />
Crawley Urban District Council maintain the records at the remaining 3 sites.<br />
For the purposes <strong>of</strong> the present study, data were available for all sites apart<br />
from the River Mole at Gatwick Airport.<br />
TABU 1<br />
: Details <strong>of</strong> gauging stations <strong>with</strong>in the Crawley region.<br />
Horley Weir<br />
stat ion cat chment records<br />
from<br />
Gatwick Airport<br />
Tinsley Sewage Works<br />
Ifield Mill<br />
Hazelwick Roundabout<br />
Woolborough Road<br />
89.8<br />
31 -8<br />
31 .o<br />
12.3<br />
4.7<br />
2.2<br />
Nov., I961<br />
Nov., 1967<br />
Jul., 1952<br />
Dec., I958<br />
May, 1954<br />
Sew.. 1952
488<br />
The positions <strong>of</strong> the 3 principal autographic raingauges located <strong>with</strong>in<br />
the headwaters <strong>of</strong> the River Mole are indicated on Figure 1 along <strong>with</strong> the<br />
gauging stations. 2 <strong>of</strong> the 3 raingauges have been in operation since before<br />
the first regular streamflQw measurements were taken at Tinsley Sewage Works<br />
and Woolborough Road, and records from all 3 raingauges are available from<br />
before 1961 when the two gauging stations on the River Mole were brought into<br />
use.<br />
2.2 Selection <strong>of</strong> storm events<br />
The first stage in the analysis <strong>of</strong> the available data involved the<br />
preparation <strong>of</strong> a short-list <strong>of</strong> suitable storm events for each <strong>of</strong> the £ive<br />
catchment areas. The criteria used in choosing these events were somewhat<br />
arbitrary, but in genera1,an attempt was made to confine the analysis to<br />
hydrographs <strong>with</strong> well-defined peaks having both a smooth rising limb and a<br />
smooth recession. Rainfall data for each <strong>of</strong> the selected storm events were<br />
then abstracted.<br />
The raingauge at Broadfield was taken to be representatjve<br />
<strong>of</strong> the rainfall patterns over the catchment areas draining to gauging statipns<br />
3, 4 and 5 (see Table I>, and the arithmetic mean <strong>of</strong> the catches at Broadfield<br />
and Gatwick Airport was taken for the areas commanded by gaugipg stations 1<br />
and 2. The records from Tinsley Sewage Works were o<strong>nl</strong>y used when no information<br />
was availab1.e at either <strong>of</strong> the other gauges.<br />
The above selection procedure produced 8 storm events at gauging statipn<br />
3, 11 at gauging station 1, 12 at gauging station 4 and 16 each at gauging<br />
stations 2 and 5, the majority <strong>of</strong> whi,ch were associated <strong>with</strong> rainfall totals<br />
exceeding 12 mm.<br />
2.3 Baseflow separation<br />
The second stage in the analysis consisted <strong>of</strong> the separation <strong>of</strong> the baseflow<br />
component from each <strong>of</strong> the recorded streamflow hydrographs, The procedure<br />
adopted involved the plotting <strong>of</strong> the recession limb <strong>of</strong> each hydrograph on<br />
semi-logarithmic graph paper <strong>with</strong> discharge on the logarirchmjc scale. A<br />
straight line was then fitted by eye to the lower portion <strong>of</strong> the curve, the<br />
point at which the recession departed from this straight line being taken to<br />
mark the time at which surface run<strong>of</strong>f effectively ceased. The variatipn <strong>of</strong><br />
baseflow <strong>with</strong> time during the storm was then represented by a straight line<br />
joining this point on the recession limb to the beginning <strong>of</strong> the rising limb<br />
<strong>of</strong> the hydrograph.<br />
The above method <strong>of</strong> baseflow separation, which is both straightforward<br />
in use and less subjective than the majority <strong>of</strong> the alternatgve procedures<br />
was applied to each <strong>of</strong> the 63 recorded hydrographs selected for analysis.<br />
The ordinates <strong>of</strong> the resultant surface run<strong>of</strong>f hydrographs were then abstracted<br />
at I-h intervals for all events at gauging stations 1-4 and at 30-min intervals<br />
at gauging station 5.<br />
These data were subsequently transferred on to 80-<br />
column punched cards along <strong>with</strong> the total recorded rainfalls witpin the same<br />
time incrementso
3. DERIVATION OF UNIT H!¿DROGRAPHS<br />
489<br />
There are two distinct methods <strong>of</strong> approach to determining the instantaneous<br />
unit hydrograph (IW) or finite-period unit hydrograph (TUH) <strong>of</strong> a<br />
catchment area from rainfall and streamflow data [g]. The first <strong>of</strong> these<br />
methods <strong>of</strong> approach involves the fitting <strong>of</strong> a linear conceptua1,model to the<br />
records <strong>of</strong> rainfall excess and surface run<strong>of</strong>f.<br />
The 4mpulse response functi.on<br />
<strong>of</strong> the fitted mode1,is then taken to approximate the IUH <strong>of</strong> the catchment.<br />
This indirect synthesis approach may be contrasted <strong>with</strong> the more direct methods<br />
<strong>of</strong> analysis which operate on the rainfall excess and surface run<strong>of</strong>f data to<br />
yield an IUH or TLTH wi,thout the need to postulate a model. The harmoni? method<br />
for defining the TUH <strong>of</strong> a catchment [9], which was adopted for the purposes<br />
<strong>of</strong> the present study, falls into the latter category.<br />
3.1 The harmonic method <strong>of</strong> unit hydrograph derivation<br />
In order to apply the harmonic method, the volumes <strong>of</strong> raiyfall excess<br />
and the ordinates <strong>of</strong> both the surface run<strong>of</strong>f hydrograph and the TIM are defined<br />
in terms <strong>of</strong> harmonic series. For example, if the equally-spaced ordinates <strong>of</strong><br />
the surface run<strong>of</strong>f hydrograph are given by yi, i = 1, 2, ...., n,<br />
+ = + C[A~ P cos j - 2xi sin j &]<br />
Yi.<br />
n j n<br />
j=l<br />
If n is an odd number, p = (n-1)/2 and<br />
B = 2 c y<br />
sink -;i<br />
n k<br />
j k= 1<br />
The volumes <strong>of</strong> rainfall excess, xi, i = 1, 2, ..., m, <strong>with</strong>in the same<br />
equal time increments may also be expressed as a harmonic series <strong>with</strong> the same<br />
fundamental period and number <strong>of</strong> terms if (n-m) zeros are added to represent<br />
the terms xi, i = m+l, m+2, ...., n.<br />
This series will be identical in form<br />
to equation (I), but <strong>with</strong> n harmonic coefficients a, b whose values can be<br />
obtained by substituting rainfall excess volumes for surface run<strong>of</strong>f ordinates<br />
in the equations (2). If the TITH is also assumed to have n equally-spaced<br />
ordinates, Le. the same fundamental period as that <strong>of</strong> the rainfall excess<br />
and surface run<strong>of</strong>f data, O'Donnell 191 has shown that the harmonic coefficients<br />
a, ß, <strong>of</strong> the harmonic series which defines the ordinates <strong>of</strong> the TUH can be<br />
calculated directly from the harmonic coefficients A, B, a, b usipg the linkage<br />
equations<br />
a.A. + b.B - -<br />
a = - but cio<br />
n<br />
-<br />
j a. +b<br />
~j<br />
- 2 w<br />
Pj - n 2<br />
aj2+bj<br />
1 %<br />
n a<br />
O<br />
eq. (3)
49 O<br />
Substitution <strong>of</strong> the aj, ßj in a series expansion <strong>of</strong> the form <strong>of</strong> equation<br />
(1) then gives the successive ordinates <strong>of</strong> the TUH, ui, i = 1, 2, ...., n<br />
dir e c t ly .<br />
The application <strong>of</strong> any <strong>of</strong> the established methods <strong>of</strong> analysis, such as<br />
the harmonic method, is liable to produce TUH's which are distorted by highfrequency<br />
oscillations <strong>of</strong> varying amplitude. PhiiliFpee and Wiggert [IO] who<br />
applied the harmonic method to data from 38 storms on 4 drainage basins in<br />
thr vicinity <strong>of</strong> Detroit, encountered this problem but <strong>of</strong>fered no explanation<br />
as to its cause. More recent studies by Blank et al [Il], who used the Fourier<br />
transform approach, which bears some relatipnship to the harmonic method, have<br />
indicated that such oscillations can result from errors in the data and are<br />
not necessarily caused by the inherent non-linearity <strong>of</strong> the rainfall-run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
relationship. Blank et al [Il] also show that oscillatory TUH's can be avoided<br />
by applying a low-pass digital filter to the rainfall excess and surface run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
data prior to the derivation <strong>of</strong> the TUH.<br />
One <strong>of</strong> the principal advantages <strong>of</strong> the harmonic method is its flexibility<br />
in dealing <strong>with</strong> storm events which produce such oscillatory "UH's <strong>with</strong>out the<br />
need to use digital filters. This property <strong>of</strong> the method stems from the form<br />
<strong>of</strong> the linkage equations (3) by which the aj, ßj <strong>of</strong> the harmonic series representation<br />
<strong>of</strong> the TKH depend o<strong>nl</strong>y on the harmonic coefficients <strong>of</strong> the rainfall<br />
excess and surface run<strong>of</strong>f data for the same frequency. Individual harmonics<br />
may therefore be omitted from the series representation <strong>of</strong> the TUH <strong>with</strong>out<br />
affecting the calculation <strong>of</strong> other üj, ßj.<br />
In particular, if the ordinates<br />
<strong>of</strong> the TUH obtained by using all the aj, ßj exhibit high-frequency oscillations,<br />
truncation <strong>of</strong> the series representation may help to eliminate these<br />
oscillations. However, the amount <strong>of</strong> truncation applied should not be suffic-<br />
ient to cause the hydrograph obtained by convolving the smoothed Tw <strong>with</strong> the<br />
distribution <strong>of</strong> rainfall excess to depart significantly from the original<br />
surface run<strong>of</strong>f hydrograph.<br />
3.2<br />
Appliiation to Crawley area data<br />
A computer program was written to derive TUH's using the harmonic method<br />
described ip Section (3.1) above. The computation began <strong>with</strong> the determination<br />
<strong>of</strong> the distribution <strong>of</strong> rainfall excess using the @-index method. The total<br />
volumes <strong>of</strong> both rainfall and run<strong>of</strong>f were calculated and their difference<br />
averaged over the number <strong>of</strong> time intervals <strong>with</strong> non-zero rainfall. This<br />
average t'losstt was then subtracted from the recorded volumes <strong>of</strong> rainfall w5thin<br />
each time interval, any negative differences being set to zero. The whole<br />
procedure was repeated until the difference between the total volumes <strong>of</strong><br />
rainfall and run<strong>of</strong>f was less than 0.25 mm. Having obtained the distribution<br />
<strong>of</strong> rainfall excess, the derivation <strong>of</strong> the TUH was carried out according to the<br />
method outlined in Section (3.1) above. The surface run<strong>of</strong>f hydrograph was<br />
then reconstituted by convolving the derived TUH <strong>with</strong> the distribution <strong>of</strong><br />
rainfall excess.<br />
The data from all 63 storm events were processed using the full number<br />
<strong>of</strong> harmonic coefficients in determining the ordinates <strong>of</strong> the TUH. The results<br />
obtained were then plotted and compared. The majority <strong>of</strong> the derived TUH's<br />
were found to exhibit high frequency oscillations <strong>of</strong> varying amplitude. The<br />
storm events which gave rise to such behaviour were therefore re-processed<br />
using fewer harmonic coefficients in determining the TUH ordinates.
The choice <strong>of</strong> the most appropriate number <strong>of</strong> harmonic coefficients to<br />
use for any given storm event is largely subjective. Truncating the harmonic<br />
series representation <strong>of</strong> the TLTH may remove the high-frequency oscillations,<br />
but the hydrograph obtained by convolving that TUK <strong>with</strong> the distribution <strong>of</strong><br />
rainfall excess should not depart markedly from the original surface run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
hydrograph, particularly in regard to the magnitude and timing <strong>of</strong> the peak<br />
flows. The amount <strong>of</strong> computer time that would have been involved in<br />
systematically reducing the number <strong>of</strong> harmonic coefficients in the series<br />
representation <strong>of</strong> the !ì'üñ until the fit provided by the reconvolved surface<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f hydrograph was no longer acceptable would have been excessive. A pilot<br />
study using a restricted number <strong>of</strong> truncated,,series,each having a predetermined<br />
proportion <strong>of</strong> the full number <strong>of</strong> harmonics, was therefore carried out. For the<br />
majority <strong>of</strong> the storm events, halving the number <strong>of</strong> harmonics successfully dampened<br />
the high-frequency oscillations, and gave rise to a reconvolved hydrograph<br />
whose maximum ordinate was generally <strong>with</strong>in 5 per cent <strong>of</strong> the peak <strong>of</strong> the<br />
original surface run<strong>of</strong>f hydrograph.<br />
491<br />
As a result <strong>of</strong> the above analysis, 8 TiJH's were obtained for gauging<br />
station 2, 6 each for gauging stations 4 and 5, 4 for gauging station 1 and<br />
3 for gauging station 3. The changes in flow regime which had occurred at<br />
gauging stations 2, 4 and 5 during the period <strong>of</strong> record were immediately<br />
obvious, and TiJH's for each <strong>of</strong> these sites were therefore grouped according<br />
to the dates <strong>of</strong> occurrence <strong>of</strong> the storm events from which they were derived.<br />
For convenience, these different groupings will be referred to by the letters<br />
IfAt1 (for the earlier storms) and "BI1 (for the later storms). Of the 8<br />
separate sets <strong>of</strong> TUH's, none consisted <strong>of</strong> less than 3 hydrographs. The TUH's<br />
<strong>with</strong>in each set were then plotted together using a common starting time, and<br />
an "average" TiiH obtained by drawing in a smooth curve through the plotted<br />
points, care being taken to ensure that the area under the curve was equivalent<br />
to 25 mm over the catchment area.<br />
Figure 2 shows the smoothed TITH'S obtained for Crawters Brook at Woolborough<br />
Road, and is indicative <strong>of</strong> the change in flow regime which has taken place as<br />
the town centre <strong>of</strong> Crawley has developed over a period <strong>of</strong> some 15-20 years.<br />
4. REGIONALISATION OF UNIT KYDROGRAPHS<br />
One <strong>of</strong> the simplest assumptions that can be made in regiqnaliTi9g a group<br />
<strong>of</strong> unit hydrographs is that all TLTH'S <strong>of</strong> a common duration are reducible to<br />
the same dimensio<strong>nl</strong>ess shape. The scaling parameters that are required to<br />
describe the dipensio<strong>nl</strong>ess hydrograph (<strong>of</strong> which there are generally two) are<br />
expressed in terms <strong>of</strong> catchment characteristics by means <strong>of</strong> a multiple linear<br />
regression analyses. The appljcation <strong>of</strong> this approach,$ the present study<br />
is complicated by the necessity to include independent variables which reflect<br />
thg man-made changes <strong>with</strong>in the catchment areas affected by the development <strong>of</strong><br />
Crawley.<br />
Previous authors who have applied a dimensio<strong>nl</strong>ess unit hydrograph approach<br />
have differed widely ip their choice <strong>of</strong> scaling parameters, For example,<br />
Commons u23 developed a l'basic hydrograph" <strong>with</strong> a time base <strong>of</strong> 100 arbitrary<br />
units, a height <strong>of</strong> 60 arbitrary discharge units and an area <strong>of</strong> 1196.5 square<br />
units. The scaling parameters required were peak rate <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f and total<br />
volume <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f. In common <strong>with</strong> many similar pairings, these parameters
49 2<br />
are not entirely independent, and as Diskin [I31 has recently pointed out, a<br />
choice <strong>of</strong> parameters which satisfy the constraint <strong>of</strong> unit area under the TLTH<br />
is to be preferred.<br />
A review <strong>of</strong> previously-published work on the hydrological consequences<br />
<strong>of</strong> urbanisation showed that, <strong>of</strong> several possible time scaling parameters, the<br />
lag time TL, defined as the time interval between the centroid <strong>of</strong> rainfall<br />
excess and the centroid <strong>of</strong> surface run<strong>of</strong>f, has been found to show a consistent<br />
variation <strong>with</strong> the length and slope <strong>of</strong> the main channel for both rural and<br />
urban catchment areas 13-53. If, however, the constraint <strong>of</strong> unit area under<br />
the TUH is observed, making the time scale <strong>of</strong> each TüH dimensio<strong>nl</strong>ess by expressipg<br />
the timing <strong>of</strong> all ordinates as a proportion <strong>of</strong> TL also determines the ordinate<br />
scale. Hence, the dimensio<strong>nl</strong>ess unit hydrograph can be specified in terms <strong>of</strong><br />
o<strong>nl</strong>y one parameter, the functional form <strong>of</strong> the curve being<br />
ut.TL = f (t/TL) eqe (4)<br />
where ut is the ordinate <strong>of</strong> the actual TUH at time t.<br />
The above method <strong>of</strong> producipg a dimensio<strong>nl</strong>ess unit hydrograph was applied<br />
to the data obtained from the 5 catchments in the Crawley area. The lag time<br />
<strong>of</strong> the I-h TUH for each catchment was obtained by computing the tjme interval<br />
between the origin <strong>of</strong> the TüH and its centroid and subtracting O.5h. Following<br />
Carter [3) and Anderson [5], a double-logari4hmic plot <strong>of</strong> lag time against<br />
basin ratio was prepared (see Figure 3). Basin ratio is defined by the quotient<br />
L@, where L is the length <strong>of</strong> the main channel between the gauging station<br />
and the watershed (km) and S the main channel slope.<br />
S is defined by the alti-<br />
tude difference between points located 10 and 85 per cent <strong>of</strong> the main channel<br />
length upstream from the gauging station divided by their distance apart [14].<br />
Values <strong>of</strong> L and S were obtained from 1 : 25000 scale maps for all catchment<br />
areas apart from that <strong>of</strong> gauging station 5 for which 1 : 500 longitudinal<br />
sections were available.<br />
In preparing Figure 3, the number <strong>of</strong> data was increased by the inclusion<br />
<strong>of</strong> TUH's for 2 gauging stations on the River Wandle in the southern suburbs<br />
<strong>of</strong> London to the north <strong>of</strong> Crawley (see Table 2). These hydrographs, which<br />
were obtained by Nash [l5], relate to conditions before and after the execution<br />
<strong>of</strong> channel improvement works. The data tabulated by Nash (loc. cit. Table 3,<br />
p.323) were assumed to relate to a duration <strong>of</strong> 30 min. The reduction in lag<br />
time shown by the Itpost-works" hydrographs was estimated by Nash from the<br />
records for 3 adjacent catchment areas whose channels were considered to be<br />
in an equivalent state to the improved conditions on the River Wandle. The<br />
"post-works" hydrographs were therefore synthetic and not derived directly from<br />
recorded data. Nevertheless, the data were considered to be useful in providing<br />
an independent measure <strong>of</strong> the influence <strong>of</strong> channel improvement works <strong>with</strong>out<br />
a simultaneous growth in the impervious area <strong>with</strong>in a catchment.<br />
TABLE 2 : Details <strong>of</strong> gauging stations <strong>with</strong>in the River Wandle catchment area<br />
(from Nash [IS] 1<br />
river station catchment
493<br />
Also plotted in Figure 3 are the lag timebasin ratio relationships<br />
obtained by Anderson [5] for catchment areas in three different stages <strong>of</strong><br />
development. Drainage class N refers to natural (rural) areas. Drainage class<br />
B includes areas in which the impervious cover ranges from 20 to 30 per cent,<br />
the tributary streams are sewered but the main channels are retained in their<br />
natural state. Drainage class U refers to fully developed urban areas having<br />
more than 30 per cent impervious cover and all stream channels completely<br />
sewered or improved and realigned. The majority <strong>of</strong> the gauging stations used<br />
by Anderson in deriving these relationships were situated <strong>with</strong>in the Washington<br />
D.C. metropolitan area.<br />
Examination <strong>of</strong> Figure 3 shows that data for gauging stations 2 and 3<br />
exhibit markedly longer lag times than would be predicted from Anderson's class<br />
N relationship. Since gauging station 3 is situated at the outfall <strong>of</strong> a mill<br />
pond covering an area <strong>of</strong> some 8-10 ha, such behaviour is to be expected. The<br />
presence <strong>of</strong> a lake <strong>of</strong> similar size <strong>with</strong>in the headwaters <strong>of</strong> Gatwick Stream<br />
catchment has a similar if not as pronounced an effect on lag time. In contact,<br />
the data for gauging stations 1, 4A, 5A, 6A and 7A all show reasonable agreement<br />
<strong>with</strong> the Anderson class N relationship, although bearing in mind the<br />
channel improvements above gauging station 5 and the existing urban development<br />
above gauging station 6, the broken line drawn above and parallel to Anderson's<br />
equation is perhaps a better approximation to natural catchment conditions<br />
<strong>with</strong>in the Crawley area.<br />
Figure 3 shows that at gauging station 5, an increase in the proportion<br />
<strong>of</strong> impervious cover (as estimated from data supplied by Crawley Urban District<br />
Council) from 5 to 26 per cent is associated <strong>with</strong> a reduction in lag time <strong>of</strong><br />
23 per cent, whereas at gauging station 4 an increase in impervious area from<br />
18 to 27 per cent apparently causes a reduction in lag time <strong>of</strong> 72 per cent.<br />
The latter anomaly is thought to result from extensive renewal <strong>of</strong> sewerage<br />
<strong>with</strong>in the catchment which took place concurrently <strong>with</strong> the increase in paved<br />
area. The data from gauging stations 6 and 7 indicate that channel improvement<br />
(not including installation <strong>of</strong> sewerage) can cause a 30-40 per cent reduction<br />
in lag time. The results obtained at gauging stations 4 and 5 are therefore<br />
not as inconsistent as they might at first appear.<br />
Figure 3 also shows that the lag times for Anderson's developed (class B)<br />
and fully developed (class U) catchments are markedly shorter than those<br />
observed in the Crawley area. The lower broken line, drawn parallel to and<br />
immediately above Anderson's class B relationship, is probably the best approximation<br />
to the behaviour <strong>of</strong> developed catchments <strong>with</strong> approximately 30 per cent<br />
impervious cover and improved channel systems <strong>with</strong>in the Crawley area that the<br />
available data will allow.<br />
Having obtained the relationship between the chosen scaling parameter and<br />
two readily-computed catchment characteristics, o<strong>nl</strong>y the form <strong>of</strong> the dimension-<br />
less curve is required to construct the I-h TUH for an ungauged catchment<br />
<strong>with</strong>in the Crawley area. Accordingly, the 8 observed TITH'S whose derivation<br />
was described in Section (3) above were reduced to the form <strong>of</strong> equation (4)<br />
using the appropriate observed values <strong>of</strong> lag time (see Figure 4). A single<br />
dimensio<strong>nl</strong>ess hydrograph was then fitted by eye to the plotted points, care<br />
being taken to ensure that the area under the curve was unity.
494<br />
In practice, application <strong>of</strong> the method to produce a I-h TUH for an ungauged<br />
catchment may be summarised as follows :<br />
i)<br />
ii)<br />
iii)<br />
measure the length and slope <strong>of</strong> the main channel <strong>of</strong> the catchment area<br />
from a 1 : 25000 Ordnance Survey map, and compute the basin ratio ;<br />
use Figure 3 to estimate the lag time <strong>of</strong> the catchment for a particular<br />
stage <strong>of</strong> urbanisation ; and<br />
given the lag time, use the dimensio<strong>nl</strong>ess unit hydrograph <strong>of</strong> Figure 4<br />
to construct the I-h TLTH <strong>of</strong> the catchment.<br />
5. CONCLUDING REMARKS<br />
Since the procedure outlined above uses the lag time as the o<strong>nl</strong>y scaling<br />
parameter, there is an obvious analogy <strong>with</strong> the single linear reservoir model<br />
whose storage constant is equivalent to the lag time as defined in the present<br />
study. The major difference between the two approached lies in describing<br />
the TUH by means <strong>of</strong> a series <strong>of</strong> plotted points, rather than an equation.<br />
peak <strong>of</strong> any TUH constructed from Figure 4 is therefore constrained to occur<br />
at a specific proportion <strong>of</strong> the lag time rather than at a time equivalent to<br />
the duration <strong>of</strong> the unit hydrograph.<br />
According to Rao et al 181, the single linear reservoir model provides<br />
an adequate description <strong>of</strong> the behaviour <strong>of</strong> both urban and rural catchments<br />
less than approximately 13 km2 in area. Those Authors obtained an expression<br />
for lag time in terms <strong>of</strong> volume and duration <strong>of</strong> rainfall excess and proportion<br />
<strong>of</strong> impervious cover. The results <strong>of</strong> the present study (in particular, Figure 3)<br />
tend to indicate that, for the area under study, proportion <strong>of</strong> impervious cover<br />
provides a less than adequate description <strong>of</strong> the man-made changes <strong>with</strong>in a<br />
drainage basin. In the absence <strong>of</strong> additional parameters relating to changes<br />
in the channel system, and perhaps distribution <strong>of</strong> impervious cover <strong>with</strong> respect<br />
to the outfall <strong>of</strong> the catchment, the engineer concerned <strong>with</strong> the design <strong>of</strong><br />
flood alleviation works must rely on diagrams such as Figure 3 whose construction<br />
is unfortunately largely subjective and highly dependent on local knowledge<br />
<strong>of</strong> the area.<br />
The urbanisation <strong>of</strong> a catchment area provides one <strong>of</strong> the most dramatic<br />
examples <strong>of</strong> man's interference <strong>with</strong> the hydrological cycle. Whereas the<br />
expansion <strong>of</strong> any conurbation creates an increasing water demand for domestic,<br />
industrial and recreational purposes, the very presence <strong>of</strong> the urban area<br />
accelerates the processes by which locally stored ana precipitated water is<br />
returned to the sea. Despite the major changes in the flow regime <strong>of</strong> a catchment<br />
area which urbanisation can bring about, relatively little attention has<br />
been given to the quantification <strong>of</strong> such changes when compared <strong>with</strong> other land<br />
use changes,such as that <strong>of</strong> forest to grassland. Bearing in mind the large<br />
sums which have been and are being devoted to flood protection schemes for<br />
urban areas, the available information can justifiably be labelled as inadequate.<br />
The
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS<br />
The study described above was carried out on behalf <strong>of</strong> the <strong>Resources</strong><br />
Group for West Sussex County Council. The author wishes to thank Dr. T.M.<br />
Prus-Chacinski, partner, C.H. Dobbie and Partners, for his encouragement<br />
to prepare and permission to publish this paper. The assistance received<br />
from the Chief Engineer, Thames Conservancy, Mr. E.J. Brettell, and the<br />
Engineer and Surveyor, Crawley Urban District Council, Mr. H.J. Lumley, in<br />
providing hydrometric data was also greatly appreciated.<br />
REFERENCES<br />
1.<br />
2.<br />
3.<br />
4.<br />
5.<br />
6.<br />
7.<br />
8.<br />
9.<br />
IO.<br />
11.<br />
12.<br />
Toynbee, A. (1970).<br />
Cities on the move, Oxford Univ. Press, 257 pp.<br />
Savini, J., Kammerer, J.C. (1961). Urban growth and the water regime,<br />
U.S. Geol. Survey, <strong>Water</strong>-Supply Pap. 159l-A, 43 pp.<br />
Carter, R.W. (1961). Magnitude and frequency <strong>of</strong> floods in suburban<br />
areas, U.S. Geol. Survey, Pr<strong>of</strong>. Pap. 424-B, pp. B9-SII.<br />
Martens, L.A. (1968). Flood inundation and effects <strong>of</strong> urbanisation in<br />
metropolitan Charlotte, North Carolina, U.S. Geol. Survey, <strong>Water</strong>-Supply<br />
Pap. 1591-C, 60 pp.<br />
Anderson, D.G. (1970). Effects <strong>of</strong> urban development on floods in<br />
Northern Virginia, U.S. Geol. Survey, <strong>Water</strong>-Supply Pap. 2001-C, 22 pp.<br />
495<br />
Espey, W.H., Morgan, C.W., Masch, F.D. (1965). A study <strong>of</strong> some effects<br />
<strong>of</strong> urbanisation on storm run-<strong>of</strong>f from a small watershed, Centre for Res.<br />
in Wat. Resour., Univ. <strong>of</strong> Texas, Teoh. Rept. KYD 07-65OI,.CRWR-2, IO9 pp.<br />
Espey, W.H., Winslow, D.E., Morgan, C.W. (1969). Urban effects on the<br />
unit hydrograph, in Moore, W.L., Morgan, C.W. (eds.), Effects <strong>of</strong> watershed<br />
changes on streamflow, Proc. Wat. Resour. Symp. no. 2, Centre for Res.<br />
in Wat. Resour., Univ. <strong>of</strong> Texas, Univ. <strong>of</strong> Texas Press, pp. 215-228.<br />
Rao, R.A., Delleur, J.W., Sarma, B.S.P. (1972). Conceptual hydrologic<br />
models for urbanising basins, Proc. Am. Soc. Civ. Engrs., J. Hydraul.<br />
Div., 98 (KY71, pp. 1205-1220.<br />
O'Donnell, T. (1966). Methods <strong>of</strong> computation in hydrograph analysis and<br />
synthesis, Recent trends in hydrograph synthesis, Proc. Tech. Meeting<br />
no. 21, T.N.O., The Hague, pp. 65-102.<br />
Philippee, J.T., Wiggert, J.M. (1969). Instantaneous unit hydrograph<br />
response by harmonic analysis, Wat. Resour. Res. Centre, Virginia<br />
Polytechnic Institute, Bull. 15, 36 pp.<br />
Blank, D., Delleur, J.W., Giorgini, A. (1971). Oscillatory kernel<br />
functions in linear hydrologic models, Wat. Resour. Res., 7, pp. 1102-1117.<br />
Commons,, G,G. (1942). Flood hydrographs, Civ. Engrg. (New York), 12,<br />
pp. 571-5720
496<br />
13. Diskin, M.H. (1972). The role <strong>of</strong> lag in a quasi-linear analysis <strong>of</strong> the<br />
surface run<strong>of</strong>f system, paper presented at the 2nd Internat. Hydrol. Symp.,<br />
Fort Collins, Colorado.<br />
14. Benson, M.A. (1959) . Channel-slope factor in flood-frequency analysis,<br />
Proc. Am. Soc. Civ. Engrs., J. Hydraul. Div., 85 (Kyk), pp. 1-9.<br />
15. Nash, J.E. (1959). The effect <strong>of</strong> flood-elimination works on the flood<br />
frequency <strong>of</strong> the River Wandle, Proc. Instn. Civ. Engrs., 13, pp. 317-338.
W<br />
E<br />
497
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498
20<br />
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. 10<br />
< W<br />
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0<br />
3 50<br />
2.0<br />
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0.5<br />
0.2<br />
499<br />
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BASIN RATIO, Z, KM<br />
PLOT OF LAG TIME AGAINST BASIN RATIO FOR THE CRAW!.EY AWEA.
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500
A DIMENSIONLESS UNITGRAPH FOR HONG KONG<br />
P. R: HELLIWELL<br />
Department <strong>of</strong> Civil Engineering, University <strong>of</strong> Southampton.<br />
ABSTRACT<br />
T.Y. CHEN<br />
Royal Observatory, Hong Kong<br />
The large number <strong>of</strong> individual catchments in Hong Kong makes it<br />
impracticable to measure stream flows on all but a small proportion<br />
<strong>of</strong> streams. Rainfall characteristics and topography are similar over<br />
much <strong>of</strong> the area.<br />
Using data for several storms at ea-h <strong>of</strong> the seven stream gau-<br />
ging stations, a mean dimensio<strong>nl</strong>ess unitgraph was derived. Basin lag<br />
was used in the conversion <strong>of</strong> both time and discharge scales. For un-<br />
gauged catchments basin lag can be estimated either as a simple func-<br />
tion <strong>of</strong> catchment size, shape and slope.<br />
This work was based on records collerted in 1964 and 1965, and<br />
was one <strong>of</strong> the first studies made possible by the installation <strong>of</strong> a<br />
network <strong>of</strong> hydrometric stations in Hong Kong.<br />
RESUME<br />
Le grand nombre de bassins fluviaux du territoire de Hong Kong<br />
fait qu'il n'est possible d'effectuer des mesures de débit que sur un<br />
faible pour centage d'entre eux. La pluviométrie et la topographie<br />
présentent des caractéristiques semblables sur la plus grande partie<br />
du territoire.<br />
En s'appuyant sur les données recueillies à .ept stations de jaz<br />
geage au cours d'un certain nombre d'averses, on a mis au point un h l<br />
drogramme unitaire moyen sans dimension. Le temps de réponse du bas-<br />
sin intervient dans les conversions à la fois pour l'échelle des temps<br />
et pour celle des débits. Pour les bassins qui ne tont pas l'objet de<br />
m sures des débits, le temps de réponse peut être estimé soit simple-<br />
ment en fonction de la surface du bassin, soit en fonction de sa tai-<br />
lle, de sa forme et de sa pente.<br />
La présente étude est basée sur des observations recueillies en<br />
1964 et 1965; ce fut une des premières qui aient été [,endues possibles<br />
par l'installation d'un réseau hydrométrique dans le territoire de<br />
Hong Kong.
502<br />
Introduction<br />
The British Crown Colony <strong>of</strong> Hong Kong is located on the coastline<br />
<strong>of</strong> China, just inside the Tropic <strong>of</strong> Cancer at latitude 220N and longitude<br />
114O. The land area <strong>of</strong> the Colony is approximately 1000km2, comprising<br />
a section <strong>of</strong> the mai<strong>nl</strong>and, the islands <strong>of</strong> Hong Kong and Lantau, and a<br />
large number <strong>of</strong> very small islands. The total area, including sea, is<br />
approximately 2 500km2.<br />
It is an area <strong>of</strong> high relief, the highest point being over 1OOûm<br />
above sea level. Drainage lines are short, usually less than lokm, giving<br />
a large number <strong>of</strong> small steep catchment areas draining to the very long<br />
coastline. In some areas, mast notably in the northwest, there is an area<br />
<strong>of</strong> almost flat land between the hills and the sea shore, formed by silting<br />
up .If shallow bays, and subsequent uplift <strong>of</strong> the land relative to sea level.<br />
These areas are intensively cultivated, <strong>with</strong> vegetable crops replacing the<br />
traditional rice cultivation where levels are high enough to be clear <strong>of</strong><br />
sea water intrusion, and fish ponds starting to replace brackish water rice<br />
cultivation near sea level.<br />
Much <strong>of</strong> this flatter land, particularly near<br />
the larger stream channels, is natural floodland, which makes stream<br />
gauging at high flows very difficult.<br />
The vegetation <strong>of</strong> the upland areas is <strong>of</strong> coarse grasses or mixed scrubland.<br />
Gathering wood for firewood and traditional seasonal burning <strong>of</strong> hillside<br />
vegetation tend to degrade the cover. Soils on the hills are coarse,<br />
thin, and poor. Gullying, sometimes severe, occurs mai<strong>nl</strong>y in the west <strong>of</strong><br />
the Colony. In the East, the grass cover is complete, and sediment loads<br />
are very low. The geology is predominantly granitic. Soil moisture and<br />
groundwater storage are small.<br />
Climate is seasonal. Winters are cool and dry, although periods af<br />
li-ght rain do occur. Summers are warm (daily maximum temperature up eo 35W,<br />
fvith very little diurnal variation) and wet. The mean summer half year rainfall<br />
at the Royal Observatory is 1850mm and the mean winter half year rainfall<br />
is 350mm. Observation-day rainfalls in excess <strong>of</strong> 250mm occur in most<br />
years. Frosts can occur at levels above 600m, but snow does not fall.<br />
Annual rainfall elsewhere in the Colony varies between 1250mm and 3000m.<br />
<strong>Water</strong> supply has always been a major problem in Hong Kong. The small<br />
size <strong>of</strong> catchment areas, the seasonal nature <strong>of</strong> rainfall, and occasional<br />
severe droughts have presented a major challenge to the water engineers(l1.<br />
Of necessity, reservoirs <strong>with</strong> small direct catchments have been built, and<br />
water has been broughtin from much larger areas by systems <strong>of</strong> catchwater<br />
channels or tunnels, intercepting many small streams which would otherwise<br />
discharge to the sea. More recently, arms <strong>of</strong> the sea have been converted to<br />
freshwater storage, at Plover Cove and at High Island.
Measurement <strong>of</strong> Streamflow<br />
Measurement <strong>of</strong> streamflow in all catchments in Hong Kong is obviously<br />
impossible, The approach adopted has been to make measurements in a<br />
relatively small number <strong>of</strong> basins spread through the Colony, and to transfer<br />
data from these to other basins. This paper describes the method used to<br />
generalise flood hydrograph data, and presents the resulting dimensio<strong>nl</strong>ess<br />
unitgraph.<br />
Streamflow is measured by fixed structures. Sharp-edged and crump<br />
weirs <strong>of</strong> various compound pr<strong>of</strong>iles, triangular and trapezoidal flumes,<br />
Parshall flumes and broad-crested diversion weirs are all used. Data are<br />
published annually(2).<br />
Selection <strong>of</strong> Records for Study<br />
Examination <strong>of</strong> records from streamflow stations and <strong>of</strong> autographic<br />
rainfall records for sites in or near to gauged catchments showed that three<br />
or more storms suitable for analysis were available at seven stations. There<br />
were seven more catchments which had been or were being gauged, but no suitable<br />
records for this analysis were found among them, the commonest problem<br />
being submergence <strong>of</strong> the measuring structure at high flow.<br />
notes on all streamflow stations, and Figure 1 is a map showing stations used<br />
in this study. From the table it will be seen that all catchments are small.<br />
Method <strong>of</strong> Analysis<br />
Table 1 gives<br />
The method used was that described in USBR <strong>Design</strong> <strong>of</strong> Small and<br />
by Linsley, Kohler and Pa~lhus(~).<br />
Studies <strong>of</strong> base flow had shown that depletion could be assumed to be<br />
<strong>of</strong> the type qt = qokt.<br />
arithmetic graph paper.<br />
503<br />
Base flow separation was achieved by plotting on log-<br />
No attempt was made to separate interflow.<br />
Duration <strong>of</strong> effective storm rainfall was found by applying the$-index<br />
technique to the hyetograph, having found the total storm run<strong>of</strong>f by<br />
integration <strong>of</strong> the storm run<strong>of</strong>f hydrograph. Storms <strong>with</strong> up to five unit<br />
periods <strong>of</strong> excess precipitation were used.<br />
Successive approximation procedures were used to find the unitgraph<br />
ordinates.<br />
In order that the period should be less than one third <strong>of</strong> the rise time<br />
<strong>of</strong> the unitgraph (to avoid instability in the computations), it was necessary<br />
to use a unit period <strong>of</strong> 15 minutes, except in the case <strong>of</strong> the smallest catch-<br />
ment where 74 minutes was used.
504<br />
With such short periods, the accuracy <strong>of</strong> timing <strong>of</strong> the chart records<br />
<strong>of</strong> streamflow and rainfall is critical. In the cases <strong>of</strong> Hok Tau and<br />
C’iung Mei, unshielded, tilting bucket rain gauges were sited on the stream<br />
recorder house ro<strong>of</strong> in order to ensure correct relative timing. Unfortunately,<br />
the mechanism transferring the tipping bucket record to the chart proved<br />
u.iieliable, and some records were lost. With the other stations, it was<br />
hoped that timing errors would average out, but there is no evidence on this.<br />
From experience, errors in long-period chart records using chart drives <strong>of</strong><br />
ZVk<strong>nl</strong>day can be kept to less than five minutes by making corrections based<br />
on check observations.<br />
On the other hand, standard daily autographic rainfall<br />
recorders in the hands <strong>of</strong> all but the most careful observers can <strong>of</strong>ten show<br />
fluctuations from correct time <strong>of</strong> ten to 15 minutes.<br />
The measure <strong>of</strong> agreement between various unitgraphs for a given catchment<br />
varied. Two examples, one showing consistent behaviour, and another showing<br />
rather poor agreement, are shown in Figure 2. Average unitgraphs for each<br />
catchment are shown in Figure 3. These were formed in the usual way by<br />
averaging time to peak, magnitude <strong>of</strong> peak and total duration, sketching in<br />
a mean shape, and adjusting the area under the curve.<br />
The variation <strong>of</strong> the mean unitgraphs can be seen in Figure 3. A means<br />
<strong>of</strong> unifying these was required. They were made dimensio<strong>nl</strong>ess in terms <strong>of</strong> the<br />
time to the centroid <strong>of</strong> the unitgraph and the volume <strong>of</strong> unit rainfall excess.<br />
Time-axis values were divided by time to centroid <strong>of</strong> unitgraph and<br />
discharge values were multiplied by time to centroid <strong>of</strong> unitgraph and divided<br />
by the volume <strong>of</strong> unit depth <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f over the catchment area.<br />
The seven dimensio<strong>nl</strong>ess unitgraphs and the mean dimensio<strong>nl</strong>ess unitgraph<br />
found from them are shown in Figure 4. The ordinates <strong>of</strong> the dimensio<strong>nl</strong>ess<br />
unitgraph are listed in Table 2.<br />
Application to ungauged catchments<br />
The size range <strong>of</strong> individual catchments included in the analysis<br />
adequately covered the sizes <strong>of</strong> catchments found in Hong Kong. Similarly,<br />
geographical distribution was quite good, o<strong>nl</strong>y the eroded area in the west<br />
being excluded.<br />
Catchment and stream slope variability was not so well<br />
covered. The Tai Po Tau catchment included some lowland area, as did the<br />
Kam Tin catchment. The other five were upland in type.<br />
The time to the centroid <strong>of</strong> the unitgraph for the seven catchments is<br />
the basin lag (i.e. time from centre <strong>of</strong> area <strong>of</strong> excess rain to centre <strong>of</strong><br />
area <strong>of</strong> hydrograph <strong>of</strong> excess run<strong>of</strong>f) plus half the unit period, (lag + 9).
505<br />
The basin lag for the mean unitgraph <strong>of</strong> each catchment was plotted<br />
against catchment area and against-where L is the length <strong>of</strong> the main<br />
s<br />
stream projecked back to the catchment divide, as measured on 1:25000scale<br />
maps, Lc is the distance along the stream from the gauging station<br />
to a point on the main stream nearest to the catchment centre <strong>of</strong> area,<br />
and S is the stream slope as estimated by the difference in elevation <strong>of</strong><br />
the main stream at the catchment divide and the gauging station divided<br />
by L). The correlation coefficients were 0.92 and 0.86 respectively. It<br />
was significant that the Kan Tin value fell close to the regression line<br />
when slope was included, and <strong>of</strong>f the line where area alone was used.<br />
However, in all work using the hydrograph, catchment area alone has been<br />
used. Figure 5 6 show the relationship. Figure 6 also shows data from<br />
Linsley et ad4j and <strong>Design</strong> <strong>of</strong> Small Dams(3).<br />
The equations for estimation <strong>of</strong> catchment lag in ungauged basins are:<br />
lag = 0.47 areaoss4<br />
<strong>with</strong> lag in hours,area in km2<br />
lag = 0.36 (3)0.40 <strong>with</strong> lag in hours and lengths in km<br />
si<br />
To apply the unitgraph to any particular storm it is necessary to<br />
estimate a @-index value, or loss rate. Studies <strong>of</strong> this for Hong Kong<br />
conditions showed wide fluctuations between storms, ranging from 2.5 to<br />
80m/h, <strong>with</strong> values commo<strong>nl</strong>y between 10 and 40mm/h. Judgement must be<br />
used in selecting a suitable value. When reservoir spillway studies are<br />
in hand, a very low value is appropriate. For drainage design, a value<br />
nearer the mean would be used.<br />
This dimensio<strong>nl</strong>ess unitgraph has been used in conjunction <strong>with</strong> studies<br />
<strong>of</strong> probable maximum precipitation over Hong Kong(5~6) carried out by the<br />
staff <strong>of</strong> the Royal Observatory, to check capacity <strong>of</strong> existing reservoir<br />
spillways and in the design <strong>of</strong> new dams in Hong Kong.<br />
Flood frequency<br />
analysis has also been used but in the absence <strong>of</strong> long records this is<br />
thought to be less reliablef7).<br />
Conclusions<br />
The dimensio<strong>nl</strong>ess unitgraph derived by procedures developed in the<br />
U.S.A. is useful as a design tool. Hydrographs from the seven catchment<br />
areas, covering the range <strong>of</strong> sizes and types found in Hong Kong were unified<br />
to an acceptable degree <strong>of</strong> accuracy using time to centroid <strong>of</strong> unitgraph in<br />
converting scales into dimensio<strong>nl</strong>ess values.
506<br />
Whether area alone or a more complex parameter should be used for<br />
predicting basin lag is uncertain. Area alone appeared to be adequate<br />
except in the case <strong>of</strong> catchments <strong>with</strong> extensive lowland area.<br />
The volume <strong>of</strong> data available for this study was small both in terms<br />
<strong>of</strong> length <strong>of</strong> records used and number <strong>of</strong> stations.<br />
Acknowledgements<br />
Thanks are due to the Director <strong>of</strong> Public Works, Hong Kong Government,<br />
for permission to publish this paper; to Mr. J. Forth, who later extended<br />
the work on floods to other methods <strong>of</strong> approach; and to Mr. Wong Shiu Ming,<br />
present holder <strong>of</strong> the post <strong>of</strong> EngineerIHydrologist, for his valued ascist-<br />
ance in checking the data in this paper and providing information.<br />
References<br />
1.<br />
2.<br />
3.<br />
4.<br />
5.<br />
6.<br />
7.<br />
Robertson, A.S. and La Touche, M.C.D., Assessing the Yield <strong>of</strong> Hong Kong's<br />
Reservoirs, J. Institution <strong>Water</strong> Engineers, 23, (1969), 8, 507-519.<br />
Hong Kong Rainfall and Run<strong>of</strong>f (Annually from 1965), Hong Kong, <strong>Water</strong><br />
Authority, Public Works Department.<br />
United States Bureau <strong>of</strong> Reclamation. <strong>Design</strong> <strong>of</strong> Small Dams, (1960),<br />
Washington, U.S. Govt. Printing Office.<br />
Linsley, R.K. , Kohler and Paulhus, <strong>Hydrology</strong> for Engineers , (1958) ,<br />
New York, McGraw-Hill.<br />
Bell, G.J. and Chin, The Probable Maximum Rainfall in Hong Kong.<br />
R.O. Tech. Mem. 10, (1968). Government Printer, Hong Kong.<br />
Cheng, S. and Kwok, (1966) A Statistical Study <strong>of</strong> Heavy Rainfall in<br />
Hong Kong. Tech. Note 24, Hong Kong, Royal Observatory.<br />
<strong>Design</strong> Flood for Hong Kong, HS7, (1968), <strong>Water</strong> Authority, Public Works<br />
Department, Hong Kong.
-<br />
Altitude Catchment<br />
Station <strong>of</strong> Crest Area<br />
Name - m -@<br />
I_<br />
Tai Lam Chung 15 16.2<br />
60ft. weir<br />
Sham Tseng<br />
Tai Lam Chung<br />
'A'<br />
Tai Lam Chung<br />
'B'<br />
30<br />
75<br />
63<br />
2.0<br />
0.8<br />
1.2<br />
Contro 1<br />
Compound weir <strong>with</strong> ogee crest,<br />
l<strong>of</strong>t. low flow section.<br />
30ft. compound weir <strong>with</strong> ogee crest,<br />
3ft. low flow section.<br />
Compound V and rectangle sharp-<br />
crested suppressed weir.<br />
Compound V and rectangle sharp-<br />
crested suppressed weir.<br />
Instrument<br />
Staff gauge.<br />
Locally-made float level recorder.<br />
Staff gauge.<br />
George Kent float level recorder.<br />
Sloping brass staff gauge.<br />
Munro vertical drum<br />
Sloping staff gauges.<br />
Streamflow Stations in Hong Kong, to 1966<br />
Ob s erving Programe<br />
Frequent staff gauge readings<br />
before Jan. 1950, thereafter<br />
continuous recording <strong>with</strong><br />
daily observations.<br />
Continuous recording <strong>with</strong><br />
daily observations.<br />
Frequent staff gauge readings<br />
before June 1963, thereafter<br />
continuous reading <strong>with</strong> daily first<br />
and then weekly observations.<br />
Frequent staff gauge readings<br />
before June 1959, thereafter daily<br />
observations.<br />
Readings Record<br />
Commenced Quality Remarks<br />
Apr. 1948<br />
Fair<br />
Discont inued<br />
May 1955<br />
Jul. 1952 Fair Discontinued<br />
June 1956<br />
Jun. 1958<br />
Good<br />
Jun. 1958 Poor<br />
Shek Pi Tau L<br />
41.6<br />
102ft. long <strong>with</strong> 4ft. wide broadcrested<br />
weir.<br />
Sloping staff gauge.<br />
Munro vertical drum float level<br />
recorder.<br />
Daily observations before June 1964,<br />
thereafter continuous recording<br />
<strong>with</strong> bi-daily observations.<br />
May 1960 Poor<br />
Ho Sheung Heung 5<br />
16.9<br />
40ft. long broad-crested weir.<br />
Sloping staff gauge.<br />
Munro vertical drum float level<br />
recorder.<br />
Daily observations before June 1964,<br />
thereafter continuous recording <strong>with</strong><br />
di-daily observations.<br />
May 1960 Poor<br />
Tai Po Tau<br />
9<br />
15.2<br />
Broad-cres ted weir.<br />
Sloping staff gauge.<br />
Munro horizontal drum float<br />
recorder.<br />
eve1<br />
Continuous recording from July 1961<br />
to April 1963, daily observations<br />
at other times.<br />
Sha Tin<br />
100<br />
1.2<br />
Compound sharp-crested rectangular<br />
weir <strong>with</strong>out separating walls. 90°<br />
V notch upstream for low flows.<br />
Staff gauge.<br />
Munro horizontal drum float eve 1<br />
recorder.<br />
Continuous recording from Jan. 1961<br />
to Jan. 1963, daily observations at<br />
other times.<br />
Nov. 1960<br />
Hok Tau 85<br />
6.0<br />
Compound sharp-cres ted rectangular<br />
weir, <strong>with</strong>out separating walls.<br />
Sloping brass staff gauge.<br />
Munro horizontal drum float level<br />
recorder before May 1964, thereafter<br />
Leupold & Stevens A-35 recorder.<br />
Daily observations before June 1961,<br />
thereafter continuous recording <strong>with</strong><br />
daily first and then weekly observations.<br />
Dec. 1960 Good<br />
Chung Mei 13 9.1 Compound crump weir <strong>with</strong> -90° V notches<br />
upstream for low flows.<br />
Sloping brass staff gauge.<br />
Munro horizontal drum float level<br />
recorders before April 1964, thereafter<br />
Leupold & Stevens 2A-35 recorder.<br />
Continuous recording <strong>with</strong> daily first<br />
and then weekly observations.<br />
May 1962 Good<br />
Siu Lek Yuen 74 2.1 Compound sharp-edged rectangular<br />
weir <strong>with</strong>out separating walls.<br />
'Vertical brass staff gauge.<br />
Munro horizontal drum float levei<br />
recorders before June 1964, thereafter<br />
Leupold & Stevens A-35 recorder.<br />
Continuous recording <strong>with</strong> weekly<br />
observations.<br />
May 1964 Good<br />
Tsak Yue Bu 41<br />
1.6<br />
Compound V and rectangle sharpcrested<br />
suppressed weir.<br />
Sloping brass staff gauge.<br />
Leupold & Stevens A-35 recorder.<br />
Continuous recording <strong>with</strong> weekly<br />
obscrvations.<br />
Jul. 1964 Good<br />
Lo Shue Ling 3<br />
10.8<br />
Parshall flume, 15ft. throat.<br />
Staff gauge. Leupold & Stevens<br />
:A-35 recorder.<br />
Continuous recording <strong>with</strong> weekly<br />
observations.<br />
Jul. 1964 Poor<br />
Kam Tin 3<br />
11.7<br />
Parshall flume, 25ft. throat.<br />
Staff gauge. Leupold & Stevens<br />
2A-35 recorder.<br />
Continuous recording <strong>with</strong> weekly,<br />
observations.<br />
Jul. 1964 Fair<br />
Oct. 1960 Fair Dis continued<br />
Aug. 1963<br />
Table 1<br />
Good Discontinued<br />
March 1963
TABLE 2<br />
Ordinates <strong>of</strong> the 15-Minute Dimensio<strong>nl</strong>ess Unitgraph<br />
Time + (Lag+:)<br />
o. 20<br />
0.30<br />
0.40<br />
0.45<br />
0.50<br />
0.55<br />
0.65<br />
O. 70<br />
O. 80<br />
0.95<br />
1.00<br />
1 .O5<br />
1.30<br />
1.50<br />
2.00<br />
2.20<br />
2.75<br />
3.40<br />
3.90<br />
5.13<br />
U<br />
lag+2<br />
Discharge x - V<br />
0.05<br />
o. 10<br />
0.19<br />
0.32<br />
0.57<br />
O. 71<br />
1.00<br />
1.02<br />
1.01<br />
O. 73<br />
O .64<br />
0.56<br />
0.38<br />
0.30<br />
O. 18<br />
O. 15<br />
o .o9<br />
0.05<br />
O .O3<br />
0.00<br />
509
Fig. 1<br />
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ABSTRACT<br />
STUDY ,OF MAXIMUM FLOODS 1.N SMALL BASïNS OF TORRENTIAL TYPE<br />
Rafael HERAS<br />
Dr. Civil Engineer<br />
Angel LARA<br />
Civil Engineer<br />
The methodology <strong>of</strong> study is summarized for small b=<br />
sins <strong>of</strong> torrential character and it is applied to one <strong>of</strong> the gu-<br />
llies <strong>of</strong> the Gran Canaria island, considering the geological and<br />
geomorphological conditions <strong>of</strong> the basin and also the principal<br />
physical characteristics <strong>of</strong> the same one. In relation to all these<br />
physical characteristics and <strong>of</strong> a statistical complete study <strong>of</strong> in-<br />
tensities, the hydrogram is established for different hypothesis<br />
and the type <strong>of</strong> hydrogram is studied more unfavorable in relation<br />
in relation to the duration-intensity-frequency curves <strong>of</strong> maximum<br />
precipitations in 24 hours.<br />
RESUMEN<br />
S:e resume la metodologia de estudio para pequeñas<br />
cuencas de carácter torrencial y se aplica a uno de los barrancos<br />
de la isla de Sran Canaria, teniendo en cuenta las condiciones geo-<br />
lógicas y geomorfológicas de la cuenca y también las principales c z<br />
racteristicas físicas de la misma. En función de todas estas carac-<br />
terísticas y de un estudio estadístico completo de intensidades, se<br />
establecen los hidrogramas para distintas hipótesis y se estudia el<br />
hidrograma tipo más desfavorable en función de las curvas duración-<br />
intensidad-frecuencia de precipitaciones máximas en 24 horas.
518<br />
1. Generalities<br />
This method has been applied to the Tirajana gully, which is<br />
one <strong>of</strong> the most important in the south zone <strong>of</strong> the Gran Canaria island. The<br />
high part <strong>of</strong> their channel is formed by a big number <strong>of</strong> gullies which have its<br />
origin to an altitude <strong>of</strong> about 1,700 m., following the receiver basin a direction<br />
sensibly north-west-southeast. The maximum longitude <strong>of</strong> the channel is 27 km.<br />
and the total area <strong>of</strong> the basin is 71,4 km2. Its location in the island is reflected<br />
in the graph number 1.<br />
2. Geology <strong>of</strong> the basin <strong>of</strong> the Tirajana gully<br />
The region where the Tirajana gully is located is the southeast<br />
<strong>of</strong> the Gran Canaria island.<br />
For its location, it participates <strong>of</strong> the geological characteristic<br />
<strong>of</strong> the half south <strong>of</strong> this island, appearing on the surface the most ancient<br />
complex which have taken part in its formation, such as are the Ancient Basalt<br />
<strong>of</strong> the Serie I, <strong>of</strong> basaltic alkaline-olivinical composition and formed by sub-<br />
parallel running out <strong>with</strong> pyroclasts intercalated, the Trachysienite complex<br />
<strong>with</strong> ignimbrites associated, <strong>of</strong> rhyolithical, panthelithical and trachyphenol-<br />
ithical compositions, and the Phonolithical serie, composed in this zone by<br />
running out, pius, end ignimbrites, frequently <strong>with</strong> laminar parting parallel<br />
to the direction <strong>of</strong> the flow.<br />
All these series are located principally in the middle zone <strong>of</strong><br />
the gully, existing also in form <strong>of</strong> little cropping out, principally phonolithic<br />
and trachysienite, in the high part <strong>of</strong> the basin. On the other hand, all the<br />
mentioned series are practically impermeable in the process <strong>of</strong> infiltration<br />
from the surface and, particularly, the series <strong>of</strong> Basalts I and Trachysienite<br />
Complex, forming the majority <strong>of</strong> the substratum on which are seated the most<br />
recent superficial formations.
519<br />
The series Pre-Roque Nublo and Roque Nublo, which have its<br />
maximum power in the interior <strong>of</strong> the island appearing largely disseminated<br />
in the Tirajana gully, specially in its middle and high zones.<br />
The said series are composed lithologically by angular<br />
fragments constituting xenolithical agglomerate <strong>with</strong> intercalations <strong>of</strong><br />
tephrithical lavas, basaltical running out and sediments. In these series, <strong>of</strong><br />
moderate permeability, a quick fall in the level <strong>of</strong> water is produced, being<br />
therefore, its pondage coefficient very law.<br />
The most modern basaltical serie that appear on the surface,<br />
is the correspondent to the Basalts II, <strong>of</strong> basaltical olivinical composition and<br />
constituted by aa and pahoehoe lavas, more permeable than the previous<br />
formations. These lavas cover principally the northcast zone <strong>of</strong> the fully<br />
disseminating also in smaller proportion in its middle zone.<br />
Finally, this basin present a genuine characteristic which is<br />
distinguished from the contiguous ones, since that a big part <strong>of</strong> its surface<br />
occupied by sedimental formations, <strong>of</strong> which, the avalanches <strong>of</strong> various ages<br />
constitute the principal cropping out <strong>of</strong> the zone <strong>of</strong> heading, while the low zone<br />
<strong>of</strong> the basin is covered by deposits <strong>of</strong> recent alluviums, <strong>with</strong> bigger porosity<br />
and higher permeability.<br />
3. Physical Data<br />
In order to know the characteristics <strong>of</strong> the basin to use them<br />
fundamentally in the estimation <strong>of</strong> its velocity <strong>of</strong> propagation <strong>of</strong> maximum<br />
flood, it has been calculated for the same one, the following characteristics:<br />
, longitudinal section<br />
. surface<br />
. perimeter<br />
. equivalent rectangle<br />
, hypsometrical curve<br />
. index <strong>of</strong> compactness<br />
. index <strong>of</strong> slope
520<br />
surface perimeter<br />
17.4 km2 57.5 k m<br />
4. Maximum floods<br />
4. 1. General planning<br />
The values obtained have been the following:<br />
compac tnes s equivale nt<br />
index rectangle<br />
1.90 L = 26. 10<br />
1 = 2.74<br />
slope<br />
index<br />
O. 263<br />
The principal probleme presented is the absolute lack <strong>of</strong><br />
direct data <strong>of</strong> gauging <strong>with</strong> sufficient extension and guarantee, as much in<br />
the studied basin as in the rest <strong>of</strong> the island, therefore it is not possible to<br />
study the flood from the direct data <strong>of</strong> maximum flows neither by comparison<br />
<strong>with</strong> others basins, affinitive basins hydrologically. Therefore, using the<br />
maximum available data, it has been performed the complete study <strong>of</strong> floods<br />
by empirical and hydrometrical methods, constrasting each one <strong>of</strong> the<br />
estimated parameters <strong>with</strong> data obtained by direct procedures in the Gran<br />
Canaria gully.<br />
4. 2. Empirical methods<br />
In the formation <strong>of</strong> maximum floods intervenes multiple<br />
causes, whose possibility <strong>of</strong> coincidence characterizes the risk. The surface<br />
<strong>of</strong> the receiver basin is one <strong>of</strong> the causes among the principal ones, since<br />
there exists a good correlation between the basin area and the maximum flood.<br />
Using formulas that could tie directly the flows <strong>of</strong> floods <strong>with</strong><br />
the surface <strong>of</strong> the basin and others in which intervene others hydrological<br />
parameters.<br />
Among the existing formulas it has been used those which are<br />
in the joined chart; these formulas has been selected in relation to the hydro-<br />
logical characteristics <strong>of</strong> the basin in the present study. In the mentioned
chart it has been given, in the same way, the values which are the result <strong>of</strong><br />
its application.<br />
SANTI<br />
GREAGER<br />
FORTI<br />
ZAPATA<br />
423 (Tr = 500 años) KUICKLING 255 (Tr = 100 anos)<br />
520 (Tr = 500 años) TURAZZA 820 (Tr = 500 anos)<br />
626 (Tr = 500 años) HERAS 780 (Tr = 500 anos)<br />
272 (Tr.= 100 años) G. QUIJANO 292 (Tr = 100 anos)<br />
The big dispersion <strong>of</strong> the results obtained <strong>of</strong> the same ones<br />
can be observed.<br />
4. 5. Hydrometrical method<br />
521<br />
This method consists in trying to reproduce the meteorological<br />
phenomenon and, in this case, we will use the method <strong>of</strong> the isochronal curves,<br />
to which it is necessary to discompose the surface <strong>of</strong> the basin in some zones<br />
(si, s2, . . . sn) limited by lines (isochrones) in which the water fallen in one<br />
<strong>of</strong> these ones delays in arriving to the point in wich we estimate the flood,<br />
sucesive times <strong>of</strong> value t, 2t, . . . , being our case t half hour.<br />
The velocity <strong>of</strong> the water if fixed by experimental and<br />
empirical methods, in relation to the physical data, fundamentally <strong>of</strong> the<br />
longitudinal section and index <strong>of</strong> slope, and other characteristics peculiar <strong>of</strong><br />
the basin (vegetation, geology and so on). In our case, we have fixed as<br />
velócity 6 km/hour in the low zone <strong>of</strong> the basin, up to an altitude <strong>of</strong> 600 m.,<br />
above sea level, and 7 km/hour in the high part. Once fixed this one, the pointe<br />
are obtained from which delays in arriving the water to the place studied a<br />
same time and <strong>with</strong> which, as contour line <strong>of</strong> a topographical elevation, we<br />
can draw the isochronical lines obtaining simultaneously the concentration<br />
time, that in our case is <strong>of</strong> 4.3 hours.
522<br />
If we contrast this time <strong>with</strong> the one given by any <strong>of</strong> the<br />
empii ical formulas existing (for example, Giandotti), we obtain a difference,<br />
by an excess <strong>of</strong> about 1 hour. This appreciable difference is justified by the<br />
quantity <strong>of</strong> sediment load which carry the floods in this type <strong>of</strong> gullies, and<br />
produce a disminution in the mean velocity <strong>of</strong> propagation. The incidence <strong>of</strong><br />
the considered velocity in the flood peak is small, and so is o<strong>nl</strong>y influenced<br />
by the concentration time.<br />
The isochrones once obtained, multiplying the area encircled<br />
among the same ones by the intensity <strong>of</strong> precipitation and the supposed run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
coefficient, the flow is obtained in the studied point due to the precipitation in<br />
each one <strong>of</strong> the zones.<br />
They are, therefore, necessary the data <strong>of</strong> maximum<br />
intensities <strong>of</strong> precipitations in the basin for a determined period <strong>of</strong> recurrence.<br />
To realize the statistical study <strong>of</strong> the intensity we will use from among the<br />
several laws <strong>of</strong> distribution <strong>of</strong> frequencies which are applied in hydrological<br />
problems, Gumbel’s law, which is used principally for distributions <strong>of</strong><br />
maximum values. This law has been applied to the usable series <strong>of</strong> the interior<br />
stations <strong>of</strong> the basin and to a series <strong>of</strong> stations <strong>of</strong> lap. All <strong>of</strong> them can be seen<br />
in the graph number 1. The maximum annual values <strong>of</strong> precipitation in 24 hours<br />
for several periods <strong>of</strong> recurrence are reflected in the charts numbers 1, for<br />
the stations <strong>of</strong> the interior <strong>of</strong> the basin, and number 2, for the exterior ones.<br />
In order to adjust the distribution <strong>of</strong> the values <strong>of</strong> maximum<br />
precipitation in 24 hours and considering the probability <strong>of</strong> coincidence <strong>of</strong> said<br />
values, the Gumbel’s law has been applied to the monthly data in all the<br />
stations, for October, november, december, january, february and march,<br />
resulting to be the months <strong>of</strong> October and november the most unfavourable in<br />
relation to the floods, as it is deducted <strong>of</strong> the observation <strong>of</strong> the chart number 3.<br />
Also, to contrast the distribution <strong>of</strong> maximum values in the<br />
basin, the isomaximum curves has been designed <strong>with</strong> the values <strong>of</strong> maximum<br />
precipitation in 24 hours to times <strong>of</strong> recurrence <strong>of</strong> 50, 100 and 500 years for<br />
the maximum maximorum annual values and for the maximum values <strong>of</strong><br />
October (which is the month <strong>of</strong> maximum intensity). These isomaximum curves<br />
can be seen in the graphs numbers 5 up to 10 and have served like contrast <strong>of</strong><br />
the values obtained by Gumbel and also to adjust the mean intensity <strong>of</strong><br />
precipitation and its variation <strong>with</strong> the time.<br />
With regard to the run<strong>of</strong>f coefficient, there is hardly no data<br />
for maximum maximorum flows, therefore considering the impermeability <strong>of</strong><br />
the middle and high zone and the greater permeability <strong>of</strong> the low zone, we<br />
estimate some run<strong>of</strong>f coefficients <strong>of</strong> O. 85, O. 80 and O. 50, respectively, for<br />
each one <strong>of</strong> the three considered zones. To estimate these coefficients, which<br />
could be reached in strong floods which would be produced after several days
523<br />
<strong>of</strong> considerable precipitation, it has been realize studies <strong>with</strong> all usable data<br />
and considering the physical, geological and geomorphological characteristics<br />
<strong>of</strong> the basin, detached in high, middle and low zones, it has been obtained<br />
mean run<strong>of</strong>f coefficient <strong>of</strong> O. 78 that seems to be reasonably adjusted to the<br />
characteristics <strong>of</strong> this basin.<br />
The duration <strong>of</strong> the storm is an important factor in the<br />
determination <strong>of</strong> the maximum flood, the maximum value <strong>of</strong> the peak flow is<br />
used to obtain <strong>with</strong> durations <strong>of</strong> storm about the concentration time. In our<br />
case, we have supposed durations <strong>of</strong> storm <strong>of</strong> 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 8 hours.<br />
The precipitation for the several hypothesis has been estimated in relation to<br />
the distribution <strong>of</strong> the maximum precipitation in 24 hours for smaller periods,<br />
obtained from the short available data, which have been contrasted <strong>with</strong> direct<br />
measures, obtaining the following values:<br />
Duration <strong>of</strong> the storm (hours) 1 2 3 4 5 6 8<br />
Precipitation in percentage <strong>of</strong><br />
the precipitation in 24 hours 35 43 57 69 75 ao 86<br />
Although it is considered little representative the compiled<br />
data <strong>of</strong> maximum intensities in several stations <strong>of</strong> the basin in study, the said<br />
values are kept, putting us in security side. At the same time and in order to<br />
procure greater aproximation to the actual phenomenon, we can consider three<br />
stretch <strong>of</strong> different mean intensity coincident <strong>with</strong> the high, middle and low<br />
zones, previously mentioned in the estimation <strong>of</strong> the run<strong>of</strong>f coefficients.<br />
For the different hypothesis <strong>of</strong> duration <strong>of</strong> the flood, the<br />
intensity, together, is distributed in the time in such a manner that in the<br />
hydrograms <strong>of</strong> duration 1 and 2 hours it is considered all the unitary intensity<br />
estimated and for 3 or more hours it has been supposed uniform intensity<br />
during the two first hours and decreasing in a 20% each hour more <strong>of</strong> duration<br />
until reaching a minimum <strong>of</strong> a 20% in the storm <strong>of</strong> 6 or more hours.<br />
The isochrone curves used in the calculation <strong>of</strong> the hydrograms<br />
as well as the different zones considered can be seen in the graph number 11,<br />
and the hypothesis that the storm i s produced simultaneously in all the basin<br />
has been made since that the hypothesis that began in the head waters and goes<br />
displacing in the direction <strong>of</strong> the gully appears excessively unfavourable for<br />
the climatological conditions <strong>of</strong> the basin. Once the run<strong>of</strong>f values, intensity<br />
<strong>of</strong> precipitation and duration <strong>of</strong> the storm, are fixed, we can obtain the flows<br />
due to each zone and the accumumulated <strong>of</strong> these ones give the flows that would<br />
reach the sea in each moment, supposing an infinite time <strong>of</strong> rain. Displacing<br />
horizontally this curve in the time <strong>of</strong> duration <strong>of</strong> rain and calculating the curve<br />
difference <strong>of</strong> the two, we obtain the actual flows that reach in each moment.
In relation to the study realized it has been considered the<br />
hypothesis (i), applying in all <strong>of</strong> them some run<strong>of</strong>f coefficients <strong>of</strong> O. 80, O. 85<br />
and O. 50 for each one <strong>of</strong> the different zones considered and the distribution <strong>of</strong><br />
intensities already cited for durations higher than two hours.<br />
As summary <strong>of</strong> the hydrograms obtained, in the graphs<br />
numers 12 up to 15 figure the correspondent to a duration <strong>of</strong> storm <strong>of</strong> 4 hours<br />
and periods <strong>of</strong> recurrence <strong>of</strong> 100 and 500 years, the same for the maximum-<br />
maximorum values <strong>of</strong> precipitation, as for the maximum <strong>of</strong> October. In the<br />
chart number 4 appears the distribution <strong>of</strong> intensities in space and time for<br />
these hypothesis.<br />
CONCLUSIONS<br />
As a result <strong>of</strong> the calculations realized by the different methods<br />
and considering that the hydrograms obtained must be affected by a reducent<br />
coefficient in relation to the hypothesis <strong>of</strong> calculation, in which it has been<br />
considered some maximum values <strong>of</strong> the run<strong>of</strong>f coefficient and some maximum<br />
intensities which must be reduced due to the non-coincidence <strong>of</strong> the distribution<br />
in the space and time <strong>of</strong> maximum values in all the stations, we obtain the<br />
results that can be seen in the annexed chart.<br />
(1)<br />
The hydrogram type estimated figure in the graph number 16.<br />
The statistical study <strong>of</strong> maximum precipitation in 24 hours has been<br />
realized in the period <strong>of</strong> 21 years, 1949-50 - 1969-70 and the data <strong>of</strong><br />
the usable stations has been contrasted and, generally, it appears to<br />
have enough guarantee, but by the extension <strong>of</strong> the period used, resulted<br />
as a risk to extrapolate for times <strong>of</strong> recurrence higher than 100 years.<br />
The results obtained are conditioned by the empirical-theorical<br />
methods used, due to the absolute lack <strong>of</strong> series <strong>of</strong> maximum flows,<br />
although we estimate that the maximum difference <strong>with</strong> the actual<br />
values will not exceed 15%.<br />
The study is o<strong>nl</strong>y related to maximum values <strong>of</strong> flood and in it has not<br />
been considered the effect <strong>of</strong> the solid flows.<br />
<strong>of</strong> hydrograms <strong>with</strong> durations <strong>of</strong> storm <strong>of</strong> 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 8 hours.
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FLOOD ESTIMATION BY DETERMINATION OF REGIONAL PARAMETERS FROM LIMITED DATA<br />
ABSTRACT<br />
P.H. EERBST, S. VAN BILJON, J.P.J. OLIVIER AND J.M. HALL<br />
A regionalized study <strong>of</strong> maximum annual flows <strong>of</strong> different short dura-<br />
tions (including peaks) has been carried out. In view <strong>of</strong> the limited<br />
length <strong>of</strong> record available at most <strong>of</strong> the gauging stations in the region,<br />
an attempt has been made to develop a technique to strengthen the data<br />
available at any particular point <strong>of</strong> interest, by using all available per<br />
tinent flow data in the region. Having chosen the extrema1 dislribution<br />
best suited to the region, the moments <strong>of</strong> the sample (after adjustment)<br />
are correlated <strong>with</strong> various catchment characteristics. This allows estima<br />
tion <strong>of</strong> flood magnitude frequency curves at any site <strong>of</strong> interest <strong>with</strong>in<br />
the region, <strong>with</strong> associated confidence bands. Such frequency curves are<br />
determined for various suitable time intervals which then allows the syn-<br />
thesis <strong>of</strong> characteristic flow hydrographs, <strong>with</strong> a specific probability <strong>of</strong><br />
occurrence attached to each, along Mith associated enyelopes correspon-<br />
ding to specific confidence limits, Comparison <strong>with</strong> hydrographs derived<br />
from rainfall input depths <strong>with</strong> specified probabplities, subtracting los?<br />
ses, and then using unitgraph methods, leads to the conclusion that a bet<br />
ter relation between probability <strong>of</strong> occurrence <strong>of</strong> a specific hydrograph,<br />
and its magnitude, can usually be obtained by direct statistical methods,<br />
than by more indirect deterministic techniques.<br />
RESUMEN<br />
Fia sido ejecutado un estudio regionalizado de gastos máximos anuales<br />
de duraciones cortas y diferentes (.incluyendo valores máximosr. En vista<br />
de la limitación de información disponible para la mayoria de las estacio<br />
nec de aforo de la región, se ha intentado desarrollar un método que permita<br />
reforzar dicha información para cualquier punto de interés usando to<br />
dos los registros existentes de la región. Habiendo elegido la distribución<br />
extrema que mejor acomoda a la región, se han correlacionado los mementos<br />
estadísticos de muestre0 (ajustando valores) con ias características<br />
de diferentes hoyas. Esto permite la estimación de curvas “magnitudfrecuencia”<br />
de riadas para cualquier punto de inter’es dentro de la región,<br />
asociadas con bandas de confiabilidad. Tales cur~as de frecuencia<br />
se han determinado para convenientes intervalos de tiempo las cuales permiten<br />
la sfntesis de hidrógrafos de flujo caracteristicos, relacionados<br />
con probabilidades específicas de ocurrencia, junto con envolventes que<br />
corresponden a limites específicos de confiabilidad. Comparación con hidrógrafos<br />
derivados de precipitaciones de ocurrencia especifica, substrayendo<br />
pdrdidas y usando luego métodos de gráfico unitario, lleva a la<br />
conclusión que una mejor relación entre probabilidad de ocurrencia de un<br />
hidrógrafo determinado y su magnitud, puede obtenerse generalmente medi’an<br />
te métodos estadísticos directos en vez de técnicas deterministicas indirectas.
542<br />
INTRDDUCTIOIY<br />
There is no need to stress the importance <strong>of</strong> reliable flood magnitude frequency estimates in mter resource development.<br />
Whilst this problem is especially highlighted in developing regions, even so called developed<br />
countries frequently suffer from a limitation <strong>of</strong> data on which to base reliable flood flow estimates.<br />
An estimate <strong>of</strong> a flood <strong>with</strong> a specified recurrence interval (determined by specified design consideration)<br />
should be accompanied by information concerning the reliability <strong>of</strong> such an estimate, but this has not<br />
usually been the case in the past.<br />
This paper outlines a methodology by means <strong>of</strong> which all or most <strong>of</strong> the available flood flow information<br />
in a region can be rationally analysed and assembled, by taking into account quantifiable parameters <strong>of</strong><br />
characteristics <strong>of</strong> the various catchments in the region and relating these to the moments <strong>of</strong> the frequency<br />
distr, but ion assumed.<br />
Methods are described by means <strong>of</strong> which a flood hydrograph <strong>with</strong> a specified recurrence interval can be<br />
estimaied and a quantitative statement on the reliability <strong>of</strong> such an estimate can be made.<br />
lhe method was<br />
drvtloped partly due to uncertainty about the validity <strong>of</strong> use <strong>of</strong> the method whereby rainfall intensity - dura:<br />
::on curves are applied to a transformation function (e.g. a I - hour Unitgraph) due to the many assunptions<br />
necessary in the latter approach.<br />
It was felt that where some limited flow information does exist, an approach as outlined woulo provide better<br />
estimates <strong>of</strong> flood frequencies and flood hydrographs, including also information on the reliability <strong>of</strong> such<br />
estimates. Avoidance <strong>of</strong> any mention <strong>of</strong> the degree <strong>of</strong> uncertainty in any such estimate does not remove the<br />
uncertainty, it o<strong>nl</strong>y serves to diminish consideration <strong>of</strong> the fact that such uncertainty not o<strong>nl</strong>y exists but<br />
may be considerable.<br />
FREOUtNCV DISIRIBUTIONS<br />
In developing a methodology for flood frequency estimates (for annual extreme flows <strong>of</strong> various -hart dura=<br />
tions) on a regional basis, it is essential to decide which frequency distribution should be assumEd to apply<br />
throughout the rsgion. This is so, firstly for the reason that if a reasonable correlation between moments <strong>of</strong><br />
the oistribution assumed (whether the variables be transformed or not) and characteristics <strong>of</strong> the catchent can<br />
be found, the same distribution must by force also be used for estimation purposes at some new site <strong>of</strong> interest<br />
in the region.<br />
Secondly it was considered that if a distribution is used which has a third parameter, this would provide<br />
the necessary flexibility (adaptability) for the distribution to be ‘Iraiaxefi so as to fit that particular<br />
region; the third parameter thus being a constant throughout the region (for every duration).<br />
Furthermore, the possibility exists that such a third parameter may show some sensible variation if adjacent<br />
regions are analysed in turn, thus promising the possibility <strong>of</strong> a “smoothing” there<strong>of</strong>, providing there are no<br />
gross geographic discontinuities. The coastal zone, consisting <strong>of</strong> rivers draining to the south eastern sea=<br />
board <strong>of</strong> the Republic is considered suitable for such further analysis, a similar but less comprehensive study<br />
having been carried out for those rivers mai<strong>nl</strong>y draining via the Orange, Limpopo and Komati river systems [i] .<br />
The region chosen for use as a pilot study which this paper srnarizes, consisted <strong>of</strong> the north eastern part<br />
<strong>of</strong> the zone mentioned and is shown on the locality map narked figure 1.<br />
Data from wme <strong>of</strong> the gauging stations <strong>with</strong> a reasonable length <strong>of</strong> record in this region were used to com-<br />
pare the log Gumbel and log Pearson Type III distributions. In the latter case the data were plotted on<br />
specially made graph paper on which a distribution <strong>with</strong> a skew equal to that calculated from the sample concerned,<br />
plots as a straight line. Camparison <strong>of</strong> the plots led to the conclusion that no particular superiority<br />
<strong>of</strong> the one above the other was evident. The log Pearson Type III distribution was therefore chosen for the<br />
reasons mentioned above. It should be stated however, that the techniques described in this paper could be<br />
applied equally well to the Gunbel or log Gmbel distributions.<br />
Moreover, the basic supposition that nature would be so kind as to ensure that the distribution <strong>of</strong> flou<br />
extremes would follow some definite (simple) statistical distribution, should always be remembered for the<br />
fallacy which it is. Ihis is especially true where two distinctly separate flood producing factors may pertain;<br />
and may operate either separately or conjunctively.<br />
The authors feel, along <strong>with</strong> Harter 121 that there can be IM finality about the recommendations made by<br />
the U.S. <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> buncil 131 concerning the log Pearson Type III distribution, but for the various
543<br />
reasons stated, and the availability <strong>of</strong> the tables provided by Hartar, the exact form <strong>of</strong> the distribution<br />
postulated is <strong>of</strong> lesser importance than is the proper utilization and assembly <strong>of</strong> all the available<br />
flow data in the region, in a rational manner, so as to ohtain the best possible flood flow estimates<br />
and concomitant reliability estimates.<br />
The various durations <strong>of</strong> extreme flows in the region that was investigated in the pilot study sunniarized<br />
herein were: peak flow, 1 day, 2 day, 4 day and 6 day average extreme flows. The logarithms (to base 10) <strong>of</strong><br />
these extremes were found to have a skew <strong>of</strong> 0,3 for peak flows, 0,4 for 1 day average extreme flows and 0,5<br />
for 2 day, 4 day and 6 day average extreme flows. It would appear that there may be a relationship between<br />
the skew and the duration and if this is also found to be the case in other regions this could cnnveivabìy<br />
be used to obtain more stable estimates <strong>of</strong> the skew.<br />
Special graph paper was developed for the skew values <strong>of</strong> 0,l (0,l) 1,O and 1,5. An example <strong>of</strong> this is<br />
the paper on which the graph shown as figure 3 appears. The ordinate has both logarithmic and linear scales,<br />
and the abscissa consists <strong>of</strong> both the emulative probability <strong>of</strong> exceedence (e.g. <strong>of</strong> a certain flow magnitude)<br />
and a linear scale, the units <strong>of</strong> which are essentially in the number (and decimal fraction) <strong>of</strong> standard<br />
deviations from the population mean p, corresponding to the probability <strong>of</strong> exceedence for the particular skew<br />
value in question. This scale is identified as the K - scale (K being analogous to Gumbel's reduced variate).<br />
On the assumption then, that the logarithms <strong>of</strong> the annual extreme flows for the various durations are distributed<br />
according to a Pearson Type III distribution <strong>with</strong> the applicable regional skew values, the N year<br />
flood can be obtained from the expresfion:<br />
X =X . KS . (i)<br />
Here and S are the mean and ssandard deviation <strong>of</strong> the logarithms <strong>of</strong> the individual extreme annual flows.<br />
X, is the logarithm <strong>of</strong> the N year extreiae flood magnitude, and K is the number <strong>of</strong> standard deviations from the<br />
population man y that corresponds to the exceedence probability for the skew value in question (presented<br />
in detail in Harters tables).<br />
If the logarithms <strong>of</strong> the extreme flows are distributed according to the Log Pearson III distribution <strong>with</strong><br />
a skew <strong>of</strong>ï= 1 say, then if probability paper designed forö= 1 is used, a straight line draw hereon for<br />
specific values <strong>of</strong> X and S, will yield a flood magnitude - frequency curve <strong>of</strong> XIversus K. As K is uniquely<br />
related to the probability <strong>of</strong> exceedence, X, can be read and transformed to yield the flou value estimated to<br />
be equalled or exceeded for any specified return period <strong>with</strong>in the range.<br />
ESTIMATION Of IHE M@KIIIS OF THE DISTRIBUTION<br />
The problem therefore reduces to estimation <strong>of</strong> the values <strong>of</strong> i and S for a specific catchent. This is done<br />
by correlation <strong>of</strong> all availab!e and pertinent measured flow data to catchment characteristics, so as to be able<br />
to obtain best estimates for X and S. The variables investigated depend upon factors considered either as<br />
possibly causal, or as possible contributary factors towards the occurrence <strong>of</strong> extreme flows. Although the<br />
authors are aware <strong>of</strong> the possible application <strong>of</strong> factor analysis (or principal cuœponent analysis) here, it has<br />
not been used during this study for various reasons [4'J .<br />
The various independent variables considered were the following: area, mean annual rainfall, average<br />
slope, river length, monthly rainfall <strong>with</strong> a tvo year recurrence interval (log normal distribution assumed) and<br />
a shape factor. The data used in the present study are presented in Tables 1 and 2.<br />
The regression nodels used were-all <strong>of</strong> the general form:<br />
X . a . b log A+ c log R t ................. (2)<br />
It may be noted that, as 1 is the mean <strong>of</strong> the logarithms <strong>of</strong> the extreme flous, the above formula using o<strong>nl</strong>y<br />
= 2 Ab RC where og,m,iS the geometric mean <strong>of</strong> the extreme flows at<br />
A and R is equivalent to the mdel Q<br />
a specific site. g.m.<br />
In obtaining a further estArnate <strong>of</strong> i (1 )by simple or multiple linear regression, a value for the variance<br />
<strong>of</strong> such a further estimate <strong>of</strong> X is always optained. This variance depends not o<strong>nl</strong>y upon the degree <strong>of</strong> variance<br />
explained by the regression model, but also by the extent <strong>of</strong> the deviation <strong>of</strong> any <strong>of</strong> the independent variables<br />
from its mean. In the case <strong>of</strong> equation 2 above the expression for the variance will be <strong>of</strong> the form:<br />
VAR (ie) = Residual Variance[l + 7 1 + cZ2 (Log Ae - m)' + cj3 (Log Re - v)'<br />
+ZcZj(Log A e - m > (Log R e - W ] .................. (3)
544<br />
The statistical theory applied here is very clearly set outlin text books on statistics [5,6] .<br />
In short, for every regression equation used for estimation <strong>of</strong> X or S an accompanying equation is developed<br />
e e<br />
for the calculation <strong>of</strong> VAR (le) and VAR (Se).<br />
The variables mentioned earlier were used in regression models to determine the regression equations<br />
that would explaln the highest proportion <strong>of</strong> the variance <strong>of</strong> the dependent variables I and S, for the five<br />
durations considered.<br />
from some 150 regression models tested, the 10 equations that were selected as the best are presented in<br />
lable 3. Values <strong>of</strong> ~22, C J ~ and C ~ J are also presented for !se in an equation <strong>of</strong> the type represented by<br />
equations 3 and 4, in order to calculate the variance <strong>of</strong> the X *s and the S 's. E.g. the equation for the<br />
variance <strong>of</strong> a further estimate <strong>of</strong> X for peak flow, X by uS"e <strong>of</strong> equatiog 3 is as follows:<br />
1 P t e 2<br />
VAR ($,e) E Residual Variance [ 1- + 0,1191 (Log Ae-Log A) + 11,6819 (Log R e - W I 2<br />
n<br />
+ 2~0,4545 (Log A e - W ) (Log Re- WR)]<br />
= 0,0454<br />
6 2<br />
(this is for the brgenstond Dam site which has a catchment area <strong>of</strong> 528x10 m and a mean annual rainfall <strong>of</strong><br />
900 x 10-3m).<br />
In this analysis it was hoped that the monthly extreme rainfall would be a more representative parameter<br />
<strong>of</strong> the flood producing characteristic <strong>of</strong> rainfall than the mean annual rainfall. However, as both <strong>of</strong> these<br />
parameters explained an approximately aqua1 amount <strong>of</strong> additional variance, it was considered advisable to<br />
select the annual rainfall for use in the prediction equation. In view <strong>of</strong> the availability on magnetic tape,<br />
on a large scale, <strong>of</strong> such monthly rainfall data, and the understandable hope that an extreme value rainfall<br />
parameter would yield better results, this is a very disappointing result. It is however intended to invati.<br />
gate this aspect further.<br />
Hawing estimated the value <strong>of</strong> i and Se, a straight line flood magnitude-frequency curve can be drawn on<br />
the graph paper <strong>with</strong> the apprcpriate skew, and X for any value <strong>of</strong> N <strong>with</strong>in the range can then be read from<br />
N<br />
the graph. Ihis is done for the peak flow and for the various durations for which formulae have been developed,<br />
thus allowing for the synthetization <strong>of</strong> a balanced hydrograph. Ihis is a hydrograph constructed symmetrically<br />
around the peak. It can then be adjusted along the time axis (but <strong>with</strong> retention <strong>of</strong> the properties derived)<br />
to its proper shape, either by means <strong>of</strong> information an unitgraph shapes [7] or by actual measurement <strong>of</strong> one<br />
or two reasonably large floods at the site in question. Such measurements muld be arranged for at an early<br />
stage <strong>of</strong> a feasibility study involving a specific site, if no data are available. It should be noted here that,<br />
according to Nash [8,14 estimation <strong>of</strong> a unitgraph shape, even from o<strong>nl</strong>y one good sized flood in a season will<br />
yield more reliable results than that whlch can be obtained synthetically.<br />
RELIABILITY OF ESTIMATES<br />
In constructing the flood magnitude-frequency relationship we have:<br />
XN=ie + KSe . . (1)<br />
If and Se are not independent, the problem <strong>of</strong> estimation <strong>of</strong> the covariance term arises, for which a<br />
formula tuch as for VAR (1 and VAR (Se) has not been developed.<br />
This problem was solves by use <strong>of</strong> an artificial population, distributed according to Pearson Type III,<br />
<strong>with</strong>y = O, Q = 1. Skew, 8 was varied from O to 1,5 i.e. a different artificial population for each skew.<br />
For each skeu an artificial population consisting <strong>of</strong> 10 O00 terns was prepared, by use <strong>of</strong> Harters tables.<br />
Samples <strong>of</strong> size W ranging from 2 to 20 were then drawn. Every individual value drawn was, however transfor:<br />
med by addition <strong>of</strong> unity so that in fact an approximation to a universe <strong>with</strong> O- = 1 andy = 1 was used.<br />
for each sample size N, an adeguate number <strong>of</strong> samples were drawn to define-to a sufficient degree <strong>of</strong> accuracy,<br />
the variance <strong>of</strong> i, s and cov h,s). for each sample drawn, the-values <strong>of</strong> x and s were calculated and then an<br />
adequate number <strong>of</strong> such samples drawn so as to calculate var ( x), var (s) and cov (x,s). for the smaller<br />
sample sizes the number <strong>of</strong> sanples drawn were simply increased indefinitely until it was clear that the result
545<br />
:.J& converying. In this way curves were obtained showing how var (i), var (s) and cov (x,s) varies <strong>with</strong> saw=<br />
ples size N, ranging from 2 to 20.<br />
The results are presented in figure 2. Not all the curves developed are shown, but all the data obtained<br />
was used in order to achieve an integrated matching set <strong>of</strong> curves.<br />
lhe use <strong>of</strong> these curves, in order to solve the problem encnuntered <strong>with</strong> the existence <strong>of</strong> the covariance<br />
term in equation 4 is eqlained as follows:<br />
From the regression equations, values are obtained for Xe and VAR (ie) and also for Se and VAR (S 1.<br />
(See Table 3).<br />
Therefore<br />
PutX = k ; = k andS =ks-k<br />
e _ i i e 2-2<br />
(but x = s = 1)<br />
2<br />
VAR (x,)=VA!? (k X)=kl var (S )= VAR fk2s)=k
546<br />
Iherefore<br />
and<br />
COY (EL,S:) = k3k4 cov (;,SI<br />
let i' and S* represent the best pooled estimates <strong>of</strong> these parameters,<br />
then we have:<br />
Nie + N'ile<br />
i* = ............... (6)<br />
N +Nt<br />
s =<br />
(N - l)Se + (N' - 1) Se<br />
.v N+fi'-Z<br />
!if unbiased estimators are used)<br />
Then we have:<br />
xi .<br />
A T<br />
1' .<br />
........... (7)<br />
KSI . (8)<br />
and<br />
VAR (xi) = VAR (2.1 + Kz VAR (S')<br />
. 2K CDV (i*,S*) . . (9)<br />
As before<br />
Therefore<br />
j* =kiandS':ks<br />
5 6<br />
VAR (i*) = k2 var (i)<br />
5<br />
2<br />
VAR(S*) = k6 var (5)<br />
and<br />
COV (i', S') = k k COY (g,s)<br />
56<br />
As i = s = 1, k and k can be calculated. By putting N* = N + W1 and entering figure 2 <strong>with</strong> this calculated<br />
value for N*,<br />
6<br />
"hues for var (i), var(s) and w v (x,s) can be rea$<br />
These latter three values can then be used to calculate VAR (X,) for any specified K value thus making<br />
possible the calculation <strong>of</strong> the confidence limits.<br />
An example <strong>of</strong> a flood magnitude - frequency curve (for peaks) is shown as Figure 3 (brynstond site),<br />
along <strong>with</strong> the one Standard deviation confidence bands.<br />
BALANCED HYDROGRAPHS AND DESIGN HYDROGRAPHS<br />
Using the approach outlined above, an estimate <strong>of</strong> peak flow <strong>with</strong> a specified probability <strong>of</strong> exceedance and<br />
concomitant upper and lower confidence limits corresponding to one standard deviation (or for any other confi.<br />
dence level required) [Io3 may be calculated. lhe same can be done for each <strong>of</strong> the five durations, resulting<br />
in a llbalanced hydrographll (i.e. symmetric about the peak) together <strong>with</strong> upper and louer envelopes wrrespon=<br />
ding to the desired confidence level. In other words, for a confidence level corresponding to one standard de=<br />
viation this implies that there is a 1 in 6 (or 16%) chance that the true hydrograph could be as big, or bigger<br />
than the upper envelope.<br />
lhe shape <strong>of</strong> this hydrograph can then be suitably adjusted along the tiw, axis, but preserving its derived<br />
characteristics, so as to obtain an estimate <strong>of</strong> the hydrograph <strong>with</strong> the required probability <strong>of</strong> occurrence,<br />
but incorporating the shape which is unique to the particular catchment.<br />
CONCL US IOW<br />
Results <strong>of</strong> work similar to that described here have in the past been used in the Department <strong>of</strong> <strong>Water</strong> Affairs<br />
in a somewhat different manner [i] first for estimation <strong>of</strong> peak flou o<strong>nl</strong>y and lately [il] also for ertime<br />
average flows over durations <strong>of</strong> somewhat longer periods. It is intended to extend the study to the whole <strong>of</strong><br />
the eastern and south eastern coastal zone <strong>of</strong> the Republic <strong>of</strong> South Africa.<br />
The possible existence <strong>of</strong> medium term (e.g. from 3 to 7 years) non-stationarity <strong>of</strong> the various flood<br />
magnitude-frequency curves due to such medium term variations in sea temperatures, will also be investigated
4.<br />
5.<br />
6.<br />
7.<br />
8.<br />
9.<br />
10.<br />
11.<br />
12.<br />
13-<br />
547<br />
,: series <strong>of</strong> recent flood disasters in the coastal zone mentioned makes such a study virtually imperative,<br />
the controlling conditions may still not have reverted to normal).<br />
grouping approach will be followed to attempt to improve reliability.<br />
for smaller catchments a stratified<br />
More work is also intended to attmpt to determine the particular rainfall characteristic most closely<br />
related to the flood producing attribute there<strong>of</strong>.<br />
lhe possibility <strong>of</strong> using an analogous approach to that described herein for estimation <strong>of</strong> other hydroloqical<br />
parameters is not overlooked, e.g. low flow sequences <strong>with</strong> specified probabilities, mean annual run<strong>of</strong>f, etc.<br />
This method also holds promise in rational hydrologic network plannirig [i31 or adaptation there<strong>of</strong>.<br />
Preliminary comparison <strong>of</strong> this method <strong>with</strong> older methods used by the Department, in some <strong>of</strong> which the<br />
probability <strong>of</strong> the causative rainfall is put equal to the probability <strong>of</strong> the resulting run<strong>of</strong>f hydrograph,<br />
s e m to inuicate that this method is preferable, not o<strong>nl</strong>y from the point <strong>of</strong> view <strong>of</strong> accuracy <strong>of</strong> estimation but<br />
also due to the frank admission and quantification <strong>of</strong> the reliability <strong>of</strong> estimation, and the extent <strong>of</strong> the<br />
probable errors.<br />
ACKNOWLEDGEME NT<br />
The permission granted by the Secretary for <strong>Water</strong> Affairs to publish this paper is acknowledged.<br />
The assistance provided by J. de Beer <strong>of</strong> the Computer Centre and by A.J. Muller, J. Botha, S. Fitchet and<br />
L. Eskell in the preparation <strong>of</strong> the paper is greatly appreciated.<br />
lhe guidance given by W.J.R.<br />
ledged.<br />
Alexander during the course <strong>of</strong> preparation <strong>of</strong> the paper is gratefully acknoum<br />
RE FERE NCES<br />
1. Herbst, P.H. (1968). flood estimation for ungauged catchments, Technical Report No. 46, Department <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>Water</strong> Affairs, Republic <strong>of</strong> South Africa.<br />
2. Harter, H.L. (1969. A new table <strong>of</strong> percentage points <strong>of</strong> the Pearson Type III distribution, Technometrics,<br />
II(I), pp.177-186.<br />
3.<br />
U.S. <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Council, (1967). A uniform technique for determining flood flow frequencies, Bull.<br />
No. 15, <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Council, Washington, D.C.<br />
Haan, C.T. and Allen, D.M. (1972). Comparison <strong>of</strong> multiple regression and principal component regression<br />
for predicting uater yields in Kentucky, <strong>Water</strong> Resour. Res., 8(6), pp. 1593 - 1596.<br />
Ostle, B. (1963). Statistics in Research, Second Edition, Iowa State University Press, Ames, Chapter 8.<br />
Ezekiel, M and Fox, K.A. (1959). Methods <strong>of</strong> correlation and regrassion#analysis, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.,<br />
New York, pp.320-321.<br />
Midgley, D.C., Pullen, R.A. and Pitman, W.V. (1969). <strong>Design</strong> flood determination in South Africa,<br />
Report No. 4/69, Hydrological Research Unit, University <strong>of</strong> the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg.<br />
Nash, J.E. and Shaw, B.L. (1%6). Flood frequency as a function <strong>of</strong> catchment characteristics,<br />
Symposium on River Flood <strong>Hydrology</strong>, Inst. <strong>of</strong> Civil Engineers, London, Session C 6, pp. 115 - 136.<br />
Beard, L.R. (1962). Statistical methods in hydrology, U.S. Army Engineer District, Corps <strong>of</strong> Engineers,<br />
Sacramento, California.<br />
Mode, E.B. (1961). Elements <strong>of</strong> statistics, Prentice - Hall, Inc., Nw Jersey.<br />
van Blljon, S. (1972). flood volume frequency analysis - Vaal Dam. Internal Report, Department <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>Water</strong> Affairs, Republic <strong>of</strong> South Africa.<br />
Thorne, R.B. (1966). River Engineering and <strong>Water</strong> Conservation Uorks, Buttervorths, London.<br />
Herbst, P.H. and Shaw, E.M. (1969). Determining rain gauge densities in England from Limited data to<br />
give a required precision for monthly areal rainfall estimates, Journal <strong>of</strong> the I.W.E., 23(4),<br />
pp. 218 - 230.
548
549<br />
GAUGE<br />
SEOUENCE<br />
NUMBER ON<br />
ûFFICIAL RAINFALL<br />
GAUGE AVERAGE MONTHLY<br />
NLMBER ANNUAL WITH<br />
AREA<br />
Of<br />
CATCH-<br />
SLOPE<br />
Of MAIN<br />
WATER<br />
LENGIH<br />
OF<br />
MAIN<br />
NUMBER<br />
Of<br />
YEARS<br />
MAP OVER 2-YEAR MENI COURSE WATER OF<br />
CAT CHME NT RE CUR R E NCE<br />
INIERVAL<br />
COURSE RECORD<br />
10+m 10-3n i06$ m/mxiû3 10% YEARS<br />
1<br />
2<br />
3<br />
4<br />
5<br />
6<br />
7<br />
8<br />
9<br />
10<br />
11<br />
17<br />
13<br />
14<br />
15<br />
16<br />
17<br />
18<br />
19<br />
20<br />
21<br />
22<br />
23<br />
24<br />
25<br />
26<br />
27<br />
XlMOl<br />
x2Mo1<br />
XZMOZ<br />
XZM08<br />
Xx109<br />
X2M10<br />
X2Mll<br />
X2M12<br />
X2M13<br />
Xx114<br />
X2M15<br />
XYOI<br />
XW6<br />
w4Mo2<br />
W4M3<br />
m4<br />
wsMo5<br />
W<br />
W5M7<br />
WW8<br />
w5Mo9<br />
WW12<br />
w6MOI<br />
XlMo6<br />
m3<br />
WY10<br />
W13<br />
888<br />
1142<br />
1074<br />
1163<br />
1070<br />
1187<br />
849<br />
833<br />
907<br />
1237<br />
936<br />
1492<br />
985<br />
889<br />
924<br />
929<br />
920<br />
947<br />
868<br />
862<br />
899<br />
905<br />
1003<br />
1233<br />
921<br />
953<br />
1099<br />
204 5444 5.50<br />
254<br />
104 l3;49<br />
231<br />
176 9,47<br />
289<br />
181 35J1<br />
264<br />
280 18,40<br />
289<br />
127 19,42<br />
183<br />
401 16,37<br />
192<br />
88 10,03<br />
208<br />
1502 12,45<br />
302<br />
251 19,19<br />
213 1538 1256<br />
368<br />
174 33,03<br />
226<br />
76 1 17,37<br />
200 7122 5,05<br />
204 5843 7,41<br />
210<br />
448 3,91<br />
221<br />
751 3,65<br />
213<br />
176 14,95<br />
191<br />
536 2,68<br />
203<br />
119 4,79<br />
206 2805 12,29<br />
209 12769 8,02<br />
238<br />
694 12,15<br />
279<br />
585 18,Ol<br />
205<br />
218 4,73<br />
213 2201 5,81<br />
263 1155 10.93<br />
-<br />
TABLE 2<br />
144.0<br />
26,6<br />
32,2<br />
25,7<br />
28,2<br />
15,8<br />
26,6<br />
13,7<br />
86,9<br />
x),6<br />
76,4<br />
17,4<br />
53,6<br />
232-6<br />
162,5<br />
24-9<br />
5690<br />
1593<br />
46,7<br />
27,4<br />
9197<br />
184,3<br />
85,3<br />
49,l<br />
25,7<br />
120,7<br />
88.5<br />
61<br />
19<br />
19<br />
23<br />
12<br />
22<br />
15<br />
14<br />
10<br />
11<br />
12<br />
23<br />
12<br />
18<br />
21<br />
10<br />
21<br />
21<br />
16<br />
18<br />
10<br />
12<br />
12<br />
12<br />
13<br />
13<br />
10<br />
Average <strong>of</strong> Log <strong>of</strong> Standard Standard Multiple<br />
Prediction Equation<br />
(Log A=Y ; log R.2)<br />
10 10<br />
= 0,802Y+l,1372-3,880<br />
P<br />
Area Mean An.<br />
in Rainfall<br />
d m 2 10-3,<br />
2,790 2,991<br />
Error <strong>of</strong><br />
Estimate<br />
0,207<br />
Deviation:<br />
Dependent<br />
Variable<br />
0,511<br />
‘22 ‘33 ‘23<br />
0,119 11,681 0,454<br />
Correlation<br />
Coefficient<br />
0,92<br />
F<br />
Value<br />
67,5<br />
S D =-O,119Y-O,9692+3,611<br />
il= 0,798’f+0,7262-2,921 2,775<br />
0,115 0,133<br />
0,517 0,134 14,105 0,608<br />
O,%<br />
o,%<br />
5,5<br />
1%,8<br />
S1=-0,092Y-0,4302+1,855<br />
il2= 0,832Y+0,947Z-3,7%<br />
S2=-0,08OY-O,4502+1,865<br />
14’ 0,867V+1,1172-4,479<br />
+O, 070Y -O, %32+1, 559<br />
j6= 0,891V+1,2522-5,026<br />
Sk=-0,081 V-O,3922+1,674<br />
2,775<br />
2,775<br />
2,715<br />
0,073<br />
0,530<br />
0,063<br />
0,545<br />
0,059<br />
0,556<br />
0,075<br />
0,134 14,105 0,608<br />
0,134 14,105 0,608<br />
0,134 14,105 0,608<br />
0,73<br />
0,97<br />
0,74<br />
0,98<br />
0,68<br />
0,98<br />
0.63<br />
11,6<br />
187,8<br />
11,9<br />
248,2<br />
8,8<br />
296,3<br />
6.5
550<br />
KM 20 K) O 20 40 60 80 100 KM<br />
SCALE I I I SCALE<br />
MAP SHOWING POSITIONS OF GAUGING STATIONS<br />
FIGURE 1
551
œ<br />
O<br />
LL<br />
u)<br />
3<br />
5-<br />
LI<br />
E<br />
P<br />
a
PRACTICES OF DESIGN FLOOD FREQUENCY FOR SMALL WATERSHEDS IN THAILLAND*<br />
ABSTRACT<br />
Damrong Jaraswathana<br />
Director <strong>of</strong> <strong>Hydrology</strong> Division<br />
Royal Irrigation Department, Thailand<br />
and<br />
Subin Pinkayan<br />
Associate Pr<strong>of</strong>essor<br />
Asian Institute <strong>of</strong> Technology<br />
Bangkok Thailand<br />
Based on the fact that adequate hydrologic data do not exist and<br />
development <strong>of</strong> water resources projects cannot be kept waiting until<br />
data are made available. Thailand shares this fact <strong>with</strong> the other de-<br />
veloping countries. The hydrologic data conditions in Thailand can be<br />
categorized as follows. These are: (1) none <strong>of</strong> any kind <strong>of</strong> data avai-<br />
lable in the catchment area; (2) some data available <strong>with</strong>in neighbou-<br />
ring areas; (3) some data <strong>with</strong> short period <strong>of</strong> record; and c4) consl-<br />
derable data available <strong>with</strong> low reliability and accuracy.<br />
The purpose <strong>of</strong> this paper is to present the general practices <strong>of</strong><br />
hydrologic analyses in Thailand particularly on design flood frequen-<br />
cy in small watersheds. The method which was the common practice for<br />
assessing design floods was based on the concept <strong>of</strong> rational formula,<br />
the unit distribution graph and the design storm obtained by the con-<br />
ventional procedures <strong>of</strong> frequency analysis.<br />
RESUME<br />
Les données hydrologiques sont insuffisantes, mais l'aménagement<br />
des eaux ne peut attendre. C'est une situation que la Thaïlande parta<br />
ge avec d'autres pays en voie de développement. En Thaïlande, on peut<br />
classer comme suit la nature des données hydrologiques: (1) il n'y a<br />
rien; (2) on dispose 4e quelque chose dans des bassins voisins; (3)<br />
on dispose de données sur une courte période; (4) on a une grande<br />
quantité de données qui n'inspirent pas confiance et sont peu préci-<br />
ses.<br />
Le but de cette communication est de présenter les méthodes d'ana<br />
lyse htdrologique habituellement utilisées en Thailande, notamment<br />
pour l'évaluation des crues de projet sur les petits bassins. Les modes<br />
de calcul les plus fréquents sont basés sur la méthode rationnelle,<br />
l'hydrogramme unitaire et la recherche de l'averse de projet par<br />
les procédés classiques de l'analyse fréquentielle.<br />
* Submitted for presentation at the International Sympsium on the De-.<br />
sign <strong>of</strong> <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Project <strong>with</strong> <strong>Inadequate</strong> Data, June 4-9,<br />
1973, Madrid, Spain.
554<br />
INTRODUCTION<br />
As far as the existing hydrological networks and its operation in Thailand<br />
are concerned, it can be considered that the design <strong>of</strong> water resources pnojects<br />
in Thailand are based on inadequate data. While the water resources developments<br />
cannot be kept waiting, it is the main function <strong>of</strong> hydrologist to modify<br />
the conventional approaches to the hydrological assessment in planning <strong>of</strong><br />
water resources projects. Application and modification <strong>of</strong> conventional<br />
approaches may have certain degrees <strong>of</strong> complication depending upon the availability<br />
and limitation <strong>of</strong> the information. Inadequacy <strong>of</strong> hydrological data<br />
<strong>with</strong>in the country may be catagorized as follows: (i) none <strong>of</strong> any kind <strong>of</strong><br />
data available in the catchment area; (2) some data available <strong>with</strong>in neighbouring<br />
areas; (3) some data <strong>with</strong> short and/or broken period <strong>of</strong> record; and<br />
(4) considerable data available <strong>with</strong> low reliability and accuracy. Hydrologist<br />
has to make a great attempt and utilized his own experiences in the country in<br />
drawing up the basic fact, assumption and related knowledge to justify the<br />
hydrological assessment <strong>of</strong> each case under study. With such attempts the<br />
justification <strong>of</strong> a project could be made <strong>with</strong> o<strong>nl</strong>y a fair degree <strong>of</strong> accuracy.<br />
Most <strong>of</strong> the small storage reservoirs in the country were planned by applying<br />
the modified Conventional approaches to the hydrological assessment, in which<br />
the o<strong>nl</strong>y available information is the rainfall data in the neighbouring areas.<br />
HYDROLOGICAL DATA PROCUREMENT<br />
It can be stated that hydrological observation has been initiated in<br />
Thailand since 1831, when a staff gage had been installed at Ayuthya to observe<br />
annual flood inundation <strong>with</strong>in the Central Plain areas. The nature <strong>of</strong> flood<br />
inundation had been a major factor reflecting the crop yield during the last<br />
century.<br />
Such maximum water levels were indications <strong>of</strong> water condition in term<br />
<strong>of</strong> good wateryear, too high flood or drought conditions which, in turn, would<br />
help predicting the annual rice harvest.<br />
Later in 1905 the streamflow measurement by surface float was introduced<br />
to measure the discharge <strong>of</strong> the Chao Phraya river for the purpose <strong>of</strong> planning<br />
<strong>of</strong> water conservation, diversion and irrigation control works. Development<br />
at that time comprised <strong>of</strong> diversion schemes in the river valleys and tidal<br />
irrigation in the delta area. Connected channels between rivers in the estuary<br />
were also excavated to conserve water for irrigation and navigation from and<br />
to Bangkok. Scientific approaches applied to planning and implementation <strong>of</strong><br />
irrigation and drainage schemes were carried out by the Royal Irrigation<br />
Department since 1915. Development <strong>of</strong> water resources was gradually extending<br />
towards headwater and slowly progressed.<br />
Until 1952, when the storage work began, the modern methods and scientific<br />
standards to be introduced in the hydrological investigation were recognized.<br />
A network <strong>of</strong> comprehensive streamflow gaging stations was set up in major<br />
tributaries where damsites for possible large reservoirs were found. Meanwhile,<br />
numbers <strong>of</strong> stations were added consecutively in the accessible remote areas to<br />
examine the run<strong>of</strong>f and flood yield from watersheds. At present there are over<br />
230 rating stations operated by various government agencies. Among them there<br />
are small number <strong>of</strong> stations that the drainage area is less than 100 square<br />
kilometers. Many common problems <strong>of</strong> hydrological investigation and data procurement<br />
still exist in the country hence they limit the expansion <strong>of</strong> the net-
work particularly into the smaller watersheds. Among those common problems,<br />
the limitation <strong>of</strong> financial support and lack <strong>of</strong> well-trained personnel are considered<br />
to be the main factors. Lack <strong>of</strong> popularity <strong>of</strong> work is another important<br />
factor leading to have less fund allocated for hydrological investigation.<br />
5 55<br />
Besides the large multiple-purposes storage reservoir projects, the<br />
surface reservoir <strong>of</strong> comparatively small storage volume called "tank" irrigation<br />
projacis were commenced in 1951 in the Northeastern Region <strong>of</strong> Thailand.<br />
Several small watercourses in the undulated topography were formed and appeared<br />
to be good sites for storage tanks. The reservoirs range in capacity from<br />
around 40,000 cubic meters up to 18 million cubic meters. Of course, the hydrological<br />
investigation <strong>of</strong> such small basins has never been practiced in the<br />
region as well as in the other parts <strong>of</strong> the country.<br />
PRACTICES OF DESIGN FLOOD FOR SMALL WATERSHED<br />
To present the general practices <strong>of</strong> design flood for small ungaged water-<br />
shed, a case design by Royal Irrigation Department (1963) <strong>of</strong> the Sattaheep<br />
Tank Project, Thailand, is described below.<br />
It was the requirement <strong>of</strong> the Sattaheep Naval Station in 1963, to construct<br />
a small reservoir <strong>of</strong> 2 million cubic meters capacity for domestic supply. The<br />
proposed damsite has a drainage area <strong>of</strong> 10.9 square kilometers. None <strong>of</strong> any<br />
kind <strong>of</strong> data is available except the rainfall data at Sattaheep, located about<br />
8 kilometers west <strong>of</strong> the basin. Hence, the rainfall data at this station were<br />
used in assessment <strong>of</strong> the design flood. Such adoption was based on the generally<br />
practices that it was applicable where rainfall characteristics were similar.<br />
Trials had been made by applying the empirical formula to determine the<br />
maximum discharge. The rational formula, Q = C i A, was found to be less<br />
applicable as its coefficient. C, could not be determined correctly. The McMath<br />
formula, Q ACi(S/A)1/5, was then introduced because it seems to be<br />
more applicable as the formula involves the basin slope which is one <strong>of</strong> the<br />
major factors governing the peak rate.<br />
The frequency <strong>of</strong> design flood cannot directly be determined. In this case<br />
it was assumed to be similar to that <strong>of</strong> one-day rainfall. From 24-year period<br />
<strong>of</strong> daily rainfall record at Sattahepp, the maximum one-day rainfall amount<br />
<strong>of</strong> 302.7 mm was observed on 6 October 1957. The computed frequency <strong>of</strong> occurrence<br />
<strong>of</strong> this one-day storm rainfall is once in 40 years. From the conventional<br />
frequency analysis, the 50-year frequency one-day rainfall amount <strong>of</strong> 320 mm<br />
was adopted in the assessment <strong>of</strong> the inflow design flood. Such frequency was<br />
assumed to be that <strong>of</strong> the design flood.<br />
Careful inspection <strong>of</strong> the catchment had been carried out in order to<br />
examine the basin characteristics and to estimate the concentration time. It<br />
is apparent that the time <strong>of</strong> concentration <strong>of</strong> such small basin is very short<br />
and usually is much less than one-day.<br />
The percentage <strong>of</strong> rainfall as a fraction<br />
<strong>of</strong> one day was obtained from the graph <strong>of</strong> rainfall recorder. In this case<br />
several storm events were examined and the envelope curve was used. The<br />
rainfall amount falling <strong>with</strong>in the time <strong>of</strong> concentration was calculated and<br />
converted into rainfall intensity which is to be used in the McMath formula.<br />
The basin coefficient, C, was estimated based on basin characteristics as
556<br />
inspected. The basin slope, S, was determined from the available topographic<br />
map <strong>of</strong> the basin. The design peak discharge obtained in this case study was<br />
43 cubic meters per second.<br />
Other means <strong>of</strong> assessments were also made for comparison. The unit hybograph<br />
procedure was applied. The assumption <strong>of</strong> the base time <strong>of</strong> unit hydrograph<br />
is important as it will result in varying peak rate. The storm run<strong>of</strong>f coefficient<br />
was carefully assumed and flood volume was computed. Peak flow rate was,<br />
therefore, obtained by applying triangular distribution hydrograph to the flood<br />
volume. The second comparison was made <strong>with</strong> the specific yields <strong>of</strong> flood<br />
flows obtained from the actual streamflow measurements observed in larger watersheds<br />
by the Royal Irrigation Department (1965). The flood yield per unit area<br />
computed from those stations were plotted against their respective drainage<br />
areas. The possible maximum flood yield from smaller watersheds, in term <strong>of</strong><br />
cubic meter per second per square kilometeramay be read from the logarithmic<br />
extrapolation <strong>of</strong> the envelope curve <strong>of</strong> specific yield. Such technique will be<br />
one <strong>of</strong> the most reliable indirect approaches if the flood yields <strong>of</strong> small<br />
streams are available <strong>with</strong> longer period <strong>of</strong> record. After several trials were<br />
made, the design flood <strong>of</strong> 43 cubic meters per second were adopted in this study.<br />
The assigned frequency was 50-year. The specific yield <strong>of</strong> flood flow was around<br />
4 cubic meters per second per square kilometers, which is believed to be<br />
adoptable in the area easily affected by tropical depression storms.<br />
CONCLUSIONS<br />
Several modifications <strong>of</strong> conventional approaches were used in planning and<br />
design <strong>of</strong> water resources projects in small watersheds in Thailand. The results<br />
obtained by such methods would be satisfied up to a certain degree. New concepts<br />
and statistical techniques which give more reliability are needed to<br />
design <strong>of</strong> small water resources projects in Thailand.<br />
REFERENCES<br />
1. Royal Irrigation Department (1963). Sattaheep Tank Project, Assessment <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>Water</strong> for Storage, <strong>Hydrology</strong> No.137/63, Royal Irrigation Department, Bangkok,<br />
Thailand.<br />
2. Royal Irrigation Department (1965). Mean Annual Discharge vs. Drainage Area,<br />
Envelope Curves <strong>of</strong> Maximum Recorded Peak Discharge, Specific Yield <strong>of</strong> Flood<br />
Flow for Rivers in Thailand and Malaya, <strong>Hydrology</strong> No.186/65, Royal Irrigation<br />
Department, Bangkok, Thailand.
ABSTRACT<br />
DESIGN DISCHARGE DERIVED FROM DESIGN RAINFALL<br />
Takeo KINOSITA<br />
Takeshi HASHIMOTO<br />
A design discharge for flood control in Japan is in general<br />
derived from a design rainfall since discharge data are not suffL<br />
cient for designing. The procedure <strong>of</strong> derivation and its merits<br />
and demerits will be explained in this report according to fallo-<br />
wing four steps. (i) A design rainfall in a certain return period<br />
is determined by a probability process. (2) <strong>Design</strong> rainfall dis-<br />
tribution are obtained by e<strong>nl</strong>argement <strong>of</strong> rainfall distributions<br />
<strong>of</strong> recent representative storms. (3) A simulation model for run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
is decided by rainfalls and run<strong>of</strong>fs <strong>of</strong> recent representative<br />
storms. (4) A design discharge is determined by the simulation mo<br />
del <strong>with</strong> e<strong>nl</strong>arged rainfall distributions.<br />
RESUME<br />
Au Japon, les données concernant les débits ne sont pas SUL<br />
fisantes pour évaluer les crues de projet; on procède donc généra<br />
lement par l'intermédiaire de l'averse de projet. Les auteurs ex-<br />
posent le procédé utilisé, ses mérites et ses inconvénients; il<br />
se décompose en quatre étapes. (1) On détermin: par analyse fré-<br />
quentielle une averse de projet correspondant a une certaine pê-<br />
riode de retour. (-2) Cette averse est distribuée dans le temps en<br />
s'appuyant sur des hyétogrammes d'averses récentes considérées<br />
comme représentatives. (3) On choisit un modèle de transfoTmation<br />
pluies-débits élaboré à partir d'observations de pluies et de dé-<br />
bits effectuées récemment au cours d'averses représentatives. (4)<br />
On applique ce modele au hyétogramme de projet élaboré en (2).
558<br />
I. Introduction<br />
Japan is located in the temperate and humid zone. A river in this country<br />
is comparatively small and its gradient is steep. Floods have occurred<br />
very <strong>of</strong>ten since the prehistric age and been serious constraints against development<br />
<strong>of</strong> the nation for a long time. Flood control is one <strong>of</strong> the major items<br />
<strong>of</strong> water resource development works.<br />
It is necessary to collect and analyze discharge data for design <strong>of</strong> flood<br />
control projects. Authorized discharge gauging stations are 330 in 120 rivers<br />
in Japan. There are many other non-authorized discharge gauging stations.<br />
However, land developments and river improvement works have remarkably succeeded<br />
and hydrological eituations <strong>of</strong> river badins are rapidly changing. This fact<br />
induces that the discharge cannot be used for design purpose directly and used<br />
o<strong>nl</strong>y for verification <strong>of</strong> a run<strong>of</strong>f simulation model, and the rainfall which is<br />
not affected by human activity is used for design purpose.<br />
Mot o<strong>nl</strong>y the peak discharge but also the flood hydrograph are necessary<br />
for channel improvement, design <strong>of</strong> multipurpose reservoirs and soon. The procedure<br />
to obtain the design hydrograph will be discussed in this report.<br />
2. Probability Analysis<br />
Since discharge is originally derived from rainfall, the design discharge<br />
for water resource system is determined by the design rainfall through the run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
simulati on model.<br />
At the first step <strong>of</strong> this procedure, the total amount <strong>of</strong> the design rainfall<br />
<strong>with</strong>in a certain period should be computed by means <strong>of</strong> the probability<br />
analysis. The important assumption <strong>of</strong> this section is that the time series <strong>of</strong><br />
rainfall are produced by some stationary stochastic process.<br />
The procedure <strong>of</strong> this analysis is divided into two.<br />
(9 Sampling from observed rainfall data.<br />
cn) Frequency analysis.<br />
The latter has been discussed by some hydrologists, 80 the authors intend<br />
to focus their attention on the practical phase <strong>of</strong> the former. The series <strong>of</strong><br />
annual extreme values <strong>of</strong> rainfall <strong>with</strong>in a certain dulation is selected from<br />
the historical data. The duration in this paper is a period which is significant<br />
to the design for the water resource system in the definite basin, and<br />
cannot be so freely chosen. The rainfall <strong>with</strong>in an adequate duration has the<br />
closest relation to the magnitude <strong>of</strong> the flood discharge, and the rainfall <strong>with</strong>-<br />
in a comparatively short or long duration has less relation to it.<br />
the design duration must be appropriately Chosen according to the basin characteristics,<br />
for instance the drainage area, the channel length, the slope and so<br />
on.<br />
The net work <strong>of</strong> daily rainfall observation covers all over Japan, and<br />
daily rainfall data have been recorded for more than thirty years, at some stations<br />
a hundred years. On the other hand, the network <strong>of</strong> hourly rainfall observation<br />
is sparser than that <strong>of</strong> the daily rainfall. The hourly rainfall<br />
data have been recorded for twenty years on an average.<br />
Therefore<br />
The credibility <strong>of</strong><br />
statistical estimations is dependent on the sample size, that is to say the<br />
length <strong>of</strong> the series <strong>of</strong> observed data. Therefore the statistical analysis is<br />
hardly applied to hourly rainfall data. Daily rainfall data are used for de-<br />
termining the amount <strong>of</strong> design rainfall by means <strong>of</strong> the statistical analysis.
5 59<br />
Then, the design duration must be an integer multiple <strong>of</strong> a day. As noted<br />
above, the design duration muet be selected ae a time in which the rainfall<br />
has a close relation to the peak discharge. Since the time scale corresponds<br />
to the space scale in natural phenomena, the duration for a smaller basin must<br />
be a day, and that for a bigger basin must be three days in this country.<br />
A daily rainfall in Japan is defined as a rainfall observed from nine<br />
a.m. to nine a.m. the next morning. If a storm stretches over this boundary<br />
<strong>of</strong> observation, a daily rainfall cannot represent a storm rainfall. 'Two<br />
days'' seems a minimum design duration even for a small basin. The fact that<br />
a big storm in Japan tends to continue more than a day requires this limitation<br />
<strong>of</strong> the minimum design duration. The design duration for the statistical analysis<br />
is two days for a small basin and a medium basin, and three days for a big<br />
basin.<br />
The return period for design purpose is not determined by a mathematical<br />
way, but by consideration <strong>of</strong> economical, political and social situations on the<br />
basin. The sewerage system design claims for five to seven years as a return<br />
period. For an urban basin, some period above twenty years is selected as a<br />
return period. A big river basin in Japan requires almost a hundred years'<br />
return period. For spillway design <strong>of</strong> a dam, about two hundred years' return<br />
period is commo<strong>nl</strong>y used.<br />
3. E<strong>nl</strong>argement <strong>of</strong> Observed Hyetographs<br />
The amount <strong>of</strong> the probability rainfall for design purpose is determined<br />
as shown in the above section. A careful attention should be paid to the<br />
procedure for distributing the amount <strong>of</strong> the probability rainfall to the time<br />
axis, because an hourly distribution <strong>of</strong> flood run<strong>of</strong>f, a hydrograph, is indispensable<br />
for a flood control project, and a hydrograph is derived from an<br />
houry distribution <strong>of</strong> rainfall, a hyetograph, through a run<strong>of</strong>f simulation<br />
model. A hyetograph for design is deduced from that <strong>of</strong> a recent representative<br />
storm. A part <strong>of</strong> the hyetograph observed during the representative<br />
storm is selected aiming at the time <strong>of</strong> occurence <strong>of</strong> the maximum amount <strong>of</strong><br />
rainfall, where the time is taken equally to the design duration.<br />
Suppose N is the number <strong>of</strong> hours <strong>with</strong>in the duration, Rpis the amount<br />
<strong>of</strong> probability rainfall and Roi ( for i=1,2, ... ,N is the observed rainfall<br />
depth in the i-th hour. The e<strong>nl</strong>argement factor R? is defined by the following<br />
equation.<br />
Then the e<strong>nl</strong>argement factor is multiplied to each R<br />
<strong>of</strong> design hyetograph.<br />
to get the time series<br />
EX'-%, EF'sR, a. ,EF.Rou<br />
This procedure is called e<strong>nl</strong>argement <strong>of</strong> observed hyetograph. Several hyetographs<br />
are derived from several representative observed hyetographs in this<br />
way.<br />
If the amount <strong>of</strong> the representative rainfall is almost same as that <strong>of</strong><br />
the probability rainfall, This procedure is very successful. If not, the<br />
e<strong>nl</strong>arged hyetograph sometimes shows an unexpected pattern. In order to<br />
avoid such an unexpected pattern, there must be some limitation for e<strong>nl</strong>arge-
560<br />
ment. Several proposals were given for this limitation, but there's no<br />
praiseful one. For this limitation is to be deduced not theoretically but<br />
merely empirically. One <strong>of</strong> the proposals is presented in the following<br />
paragraph.<br />
A certain domain is set up including the basin concerned, From all<br />
the rainfall gauging stations in the domain, maximum point rainfall values<br />
are selected about various periods shorter than the duration. The e<strong>nl</strong>arged<br />
hyetograph is compared <strong>with</strong> these values. If the e<strong>nl</strong>arged amount during<br />
some period exceeds the mimum point rainfall value during the same period,<br />
the e<strong>nl</strong>arged hyetograph must be abandoned because <strong>of</strong> the rareness <strong>of</strong> occurrence.<br />
But this proposal raises another question. What region is appropriate<br />
as the domain? For instance, if we replace Japan <strong>with</strong> the world, the<br />
selected value <strong>of</strong> maximum poin rainfall becomes greater at any period. In<br />
spite <strong>of</strong> this question, this proposal seems reasonable. Because there must<br />
exist a realistic upper bound on the amount <strong>of</strong> rainfall that can occur on the<br />
basin <strong>with</strong>in a certain period. An example is adduced. On the upper Kiso<br />
River basin from 1951 to 1971, there were 29 representative storm in which the<br />
maximum rainfall amount durig48 hours was greater than 100 mm. The maximum<br />
point rainfall values are made into Table 2. As a result <strong>of</strong> the comparison,<br />
the exceedance is noted by symbol 'E* in Table I. If the exceedance has occurred<br />
at some domein, it also occurs at any narrower domain. And yet, in this<br />
case, the exceedance is apt to occur in a shorter period than a longer period.<br />
This fact suggests us that the hyetograph <strong>of</strong> a heavy storm is uniformer in its<br />
time distribution than that <strong>of</strong> a common storm.<br />
4. Run<strong>of</strong>f Simulation Model and Effective Rainfall Analyeis<br />
In this section, a run<strong>of</strong>f simulation model is determined, and simultaneously<br />
an empirical rule is derived-on the separation <strong>of</strong> rainfall excess from observed<br />
rainfall.<br />
Among the great number <strong>of</strong> rainfall-run<strong>of</strong>f convertion schemes, 'Storage Func-<br />
This method is expressed by the follow-<br />
tion Method' is commo<strong>nl</strong>y used in Japan.<br />
ing two equations.<br />
where sr is the storage in the basin, qL is the outflow from the basin, r excemsive<br />
rainfall, K and p are empirical constants dependent on the basin, and suffix<br />
denotes delayed variable by a lag time Ta. These constants are neceseary<br />
for the run<strong>of</strong>f simulation <strong>of</strong> the storage function, so they are previously<br />
determined by sets <strong>of</strong> rainfall and run<strong>of</strong>f data <strong>of</strong> the recent representative<br />
floods. As is seen in Fq. (2) this method contains a no<strong>nl</strong>inear process.<br />
'Tank Model Method, aïso aseumes a no<strong>nl</strong>inear process, and is sometimes<br />
used as a run<strong>of</strong>f simulation model. Unit hydrograph method has been improved<br />
in this country, and is put to practical use today. But the use <strong>of</strong> unit hydrograph<br />
method ia restricted to the basine where the assumption <strong>of</strong> linearity is to<br />
a certain degree appreciable.
The separation <strong>of</strong> excessive rainfall from the observed one is an important<br />
but an awfully suffering work. In Japan, the soil moisture <strong>of</strong> the basin general-<br />
ly shows a violent variation from dry to wet according to the weather condition.<br />
The soil moisture antecedent to the storm strongly governs the rising part <strong>of</strong> the<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f hydrograph, sometimes even the crest. So the effective rainfall analysis<br />
must be carried out carefully for the identification <strong>of</strong> model parameters. How-<br />
ever, at the simulation for a design flood, a common value <strong>of</strong> the parameter repre-<br />
senting the soil moisture in the basin is used.<br />
5. <strong>Design</strong> Discharge<br />
Finally, the design discharge is determined in this section. The e<strong>nl</strong>arged<br />
hyetographs <strong>of</strong> representative storms are used for the run<strong>of</strong>f simulation. A hydrograph<br />
corresponding to each design hyetograph is computed by the run<strong>of</strong>f simulation<br />
model.<br />
Table 1: Comparison <strong>of</strong> E<strong>nl</strong>arged Hyetographs <strong>with</strong> Maximum Point Rainfall Values<br />
tom<br />
NO.<br />
1<br />
2<br />
3<br />
4<br />
5<br />
6<br />
7<br />
8<br />
9<br />
10<br />
11<br />
12<br />
13<br />
14<br />
15<br />
16<br />
17<br />
18<br />
19<br />
20<br />
21<br />
22<br />
23<br />
24<br />
25<br />
26<br />
27<br />
28<br />
29<br />
Ra<br />
mm 1<br />
-<br />
137.1<br />
137.6<br />
125.1<br />
117.4<br />
1 IO. 1<br />
114.9<br />
147.7<br />
125.2<br />
106.3<br />
195.9<br />
117.2<br />
107.6<br />
143.6<br />
118.7<br />
173.6<br />
227.5<br />
119.1<br />
148.0<br />
114.3<br />
112.3<br />
144.8<br />
123- 2<br />
169.5<br />
156.3<br />
118.1<br />
136.6<br />
148.1<br />
E3<br />
-<br />
2.19<br />
?.i8<br />
2.40<br />
2.56<br />
2.72<br />
2.61<br />
2.03<br />
2.40<br />
2.82<br />
1.53<br />
2.56<br />
2.79<br />
2.09<br />
2-53<br />
1.73<br />
1.32<br />
2.52<br />
Upper<br />
Liso River<br />
1 3 6<br />
E<br />
E E E<br />
E E E<br />
E<br />
Whole<br />
Liso River<br />
E<br />
E E<br />
E<br />
E<br />
Chubu<br />
District<br />
1 3 6<br />
E E<br />
Japan<br />
1 3 6<br />
E E<br />
561<br />
The<br />
World<br />
1 3 6<br />
2.03<br />
2.62 E<br />
2.67<br />
2.07<br />
2.44<br />
1.77 E<br />
E<br />
E<br />
1.92 E E E E<br />
E<br />
E<br />
2.54<br />
2.20<br />
2.03<br />
263.9 1.14<br />
- - 225.6 - 1.33<br />
Symbols<br />
EF : E<strong>nl</strong>agement Factor ( Rf/Ro<br />
Rp : Amount <strong>of</strong> Two Days' Probability Rainfall at 200 Years, Return Period<br />
RD : Maximum 48 Hours' Rainfall Amount<br />
E : ERLarged Amount exceeds Maximum Point Rainfall Value in this Domain<br />
1*3 and 6 are periods in houds). The estimated value <strong>of</strong> Rp is 300 mm.
I The<br />
562<br />
Table 2: Maximum Point ñainfall Values ( mm )<br />
World 350 600 1488900<br />
Although areas <strong>of</strong> these hydrographs are almost same, peak discharges are<br />
different each other. The reasom are (i) variety <strong>of</strong> hyetograph, (n)no<strong>nl</strong>inearity<br />
<strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f model, and (ai) loss factor Among these, (i) is the<br />
most predominant. Owing to this fact and to M e it possible to obtain various<br />
hydrographe, e<strong>nl</strong>argement was applied to various representative storm hyetographs.<br />
From the above hydrographs, one is selected as a design discharge. The<br />
election <strong>of</strong> a design discharge itself brings up a brand new problem, but the<br />
authors shall leave the discussion to another occasion.<br />
6. Conclusion<br />
The derivation <strong>of</strong> a design discharge is explained in thie re art. It is<br />
composed <strong>of</strong> (1) design rainfall in a certain return period, (27 e<strong>nl</strong>argement,<br />
(3) a simulation model and (4) design discharge derivation. The procedure is<br />
not fixed today. It will be improved everyday <strong>with</strong> development <strong>of</strong> hydrology.<br />
Takeo KINOSITA, Takeshi HASHIMOTO : Public Works Research Institute,<br />
Ministry <strong>of</strong> Construction,<br />
Government <strong>of</strong> Japan.
AB ST RACT<br />
THE USE OF CENSORED DATA IN ESTIMATING T-YEAR FLOODS<br />
Morven N. Leese<br />
Institute <strong>of</strong> <strong>Hydrology</strong>, Wallingford, Berks, U.K.<br />
Types <strong>of</strong> incomplete data to be found in connection <strong>with</strong><br />
flood series are described, and it is shown how samples contai-<br />
ning such data may be used to estimate the parameters <strong>of</strong> a dis-<br />
tribution describing annual maximum flows. Formulae for the<br />
standard errors <strong>of</strong> the resulting estimates are also given.<br />
Examples are taken from a river for which censored data exist.<br />
Preparatory data standardization is described, and the parame-<br />
ters estimated using this data are compared uith these estima-<br />
ted using the complete sample o<strong>nl</strong>y. The marginal value <strong>of</strong> using<br />
censored data in this context is assessed by means <strong>of</strong> the subse-<br />
quent reduction in the standard errors <strong>of</strong> the estimates <strong>of</strong><br />
T-year floods for various values <strong>of</strong> T, and this is related to<br />
the effort required to collect and standardize the data.<br />
RESUME<br />
L'auteur traite d'une catégorie de données incomplètes<br />
qu'on peut rencontrer dans l'étude d'une série chronclqgique COZ<br />
cernant les crues. I1 montre comment des échantillons contenant<br />
de telles données peuvent être utilisés pour estimer les param;-<br />
tres d'une loi de distribution des maximums annuels. I1 donne<br />
également des formules pour calculer les erreurs types des esti-<br />
mations qui en résultent. I1 prend comme exemple un fleuve pour<br />
lequel existent de telles données tronquées c'est-à-dire défi-<br />
nies par un suil auquel elles sont égales ou supérieures. I1 in-<br />
dique comment on peut parvenir à une normalisation de ces bonnées<br />
et compare les valeurs ainsi estimées pour les parametres a ce-<br />
lles qu'on puet obtenir à partir du seul échantillon des donnees<br />
régulières. L'appréciation du gain marginal d'information dÛ a la<br />
prise en compte des données tronquées revient à évaluer la réduc-<br />
tion de l'écart type qui en résulte pour les estimations des crues<br />
de période de retour T, pour différentes valeurs de T. Ce gain<br />
d'information est comparé 'a l'effort nécessaire pour collecter et<br />
normaliser de telles données,
5 64<br />
1;JTFODUCTION<br />
The design <strong>of</strong> hydraulic structures for a water resources project depends<br />
in part on estimates <strong>of</strong> the floods which the structures may be required<br />
to <strong>with</strong>stand during the project's economic life. The feasibility <strong>of</strong> the<br />
project may be examined by comparing the cost <strong>of</strong> building each structure<br />
to the requirements <strong>of</strong> its design flood <strong>with</strong> its anticipated benefits.<br />
The latter may be realized in terms <strong>of</strong> reduced damage to the structure<br />
itself as well as to surrounding property, and in more effective flood<br />
plain use.<br />
Precision in the estimation <strong>of</strong> a design flood conveys a monetary benefit<br />
by mitigating the costs which arise from over or underdesign.<br />
Nevertheless, the use <strong>of</strong> additional data to increase precision will have<br />
a marginal cost which may be greater than its marginal benefit.<br />
circumstances it is necessary to quantify the increase in precision, and<br />
if possible to express this increase in financial terms.<br />
hydraulic structures thus involves both hydrologic and economic<br />
considerations which require for their formulation: estimates <strong>of</strong> floods<br />
<strong>with</strong> given return periods; values to be placed on the precision <strong>of</strong> the<br />
estimates; cost and benefit curves for the structure.<br />
In these<br />
The design <strong>of</strong><br />
The standard form <strong>of</strong> data for the estimation <strong>of</strong> floods consists <strong>of</strong> a series<br />
<strong>of</strong> annual maxima derived from a continuous flow record. It is proposed to<br />
show how data which is not <strong>of</strong> the standard form may still be used for this<br />
purpose, and that the use <strong>of</strong> additional data <strong>of</strong> non-standard form'hcreases<br />
the precision <strong>of</strong> estimation.<br />
It is not proposed to discuss in detail<br />
the economic implications <strong>of</strong> the increase, but the order<br />
<strong>of</strong> magnitude <strong>of</strong><br />
the resulting cost-reduction is indicated by means <strong>of</strong> a simple example.
ESTIMATION OF T-YEAR FLOOIX - STANDARD DATA<br />
565<br />
Jn order to estimate the flood <strong>with</strong> return period T, sey, (or 'T-year flood'),<br />
it is first necessary to choose a probability distribution representative<br />
<strong>of</strong> the annual maxima. The parameters <strong>of</strong> the distribution may then be<br />
estimated from past records by one <strong>of</strong> many estimation procedures. The<br />
Gumbel , or double-exponential, distribution is <strong>of</strong>ten used to represent<br />
annual maxima because <strong>of</strong> a supposed validity on theoretical grounds and<br />
although these grounds have been questioned (2), its extensive use justifies<br />
- (=)<br />
its further study in this context. It has the following form:-<br />
F(r) = exp [-e -J , - o
566<br />
-1/& E N<br />
i = N<br />
+ L<br />
i = 1<br />
P o<br />
where y the so-called ‘reduced variate’ a is given by:-<br />
i’<br />
The flood <strong>of</strong> return period T, %, is then given by:-<br />
so that<br />
Pr (x 5 %) = 1 - 1/T,<br />
- %-u = 1<br />
-e-<br />
- 1/T.<br />
e a<br />
m y T = %-u.<br />
-9<br />
a<br />
an estimate oí’ 3 is then<br />
A<br />
A 3 = Q+ a YTa<br />
A A<br />
where
the values <strong>of</strong> whoee elements are substituted into the following:-<br />
h<br />
V mw be approximated by replacing a by a. A pull derivation <strong>of</strong> the<br />
above quantities may- be fomd in Gumbel ( 1) and Kimball (4).<br />
NON-STANDARD DATA<br />
Those concerned <strong>with</strong> maximum flood estimation will be familiar <strong>with</strong> at<br />
567<br />
least two types <strong>of</strong> non-standard data found in connection <strong>with</strong> flood series:<br />
missing peaks in continuous chart records and historic flood marks.<br />
Hissing peaks occur when the flow is so high that the recording pen runs<br />
<strong>of</strong>f the eàge <strong>of</strong> the chart; whilst it should be possible to estimate a<br />
missing peak discharge from h knowledge <strong>of</strong> the length <strong>of</strong> time the chart<br />
limit is exceeded, the properties <strong>of</strong> such a method require further<br />
investigation.<br />
The approach used here is to assume no more than that a<br />
flood which has exceeded a chart limit has a peak discharge greater than<br />
the flow corresponding to the flov at the chart limit.<br />
Historic flood marks are usually to be found in waìls,bridges or on<br />
specially coktructed flood stones.<br />
which have risen above a fixed point<br />
certain circumstances, it mey be assumed that all such floods have been<br />
marked, and that floods in the intervening years for which no marks exist<br />
have failed to reach the fixed point.<br />
These are the two types <strong>of</strong> data to be considered.<br />
They indicate the levels <strong>of</strong> floods<br />
during some historic period. In<br />
values are o<strong>nl</strong>y specified if they lie on one side <strong>of</strong> a given threshold.<br />
Samples which exhibit this property are known as censored samples, the<br />
threshold being called the censoring point.<br />
(6)<br />
They have this in common;<br />
If the threshold is fixed,
568<br />
as it is in these caces, and the proportion <strong>of</strong> censored events is a random<br />
variable, the censoring is type I; if the threshold is a random variable,<br />
but the proportion <strong>of</strong> censored events is fixed, the censoring is type II.<br />
A fui1 discussion <strong>of</strong> censoring is given by Kendall and Stuart(5),<br />
further references are given.<br />
The incorporation <strong>of</strong> a. 'missing peak' or 'historic record' into a<br />
where<br />
standard sample is clearly a type I censoring problem. The general form <strong>of</strong><br />
the likelihood function Lc for a sample <strong>of</strong> n + k values <strong>of</strong> which n are below<br />
the censoring point x and are specified 8s x 1, x2 ... x and k ari? above<br />
C n'<br />
x and arë unkna~n, b BS follows:-<br />
C<br />
where f (x) is the appropriate probability distribution function. A similar<br />
expressiori rr,ay be obtained for censoring above a censoring point, and maximum<br />
likelihood equations m4y be obtained from either expression in the USUEL manner.<br />
ESTIMATION OF T-YEAR FLOODS - NON-STANDARD DATA<br />
Censoring above a threshold (Missing Peaks).<br />
(assumed<br />
n<br />
independent) and k missing peaks which are knm to be above the chart<br />
Suppose a sample consists <strong>of</strong> n annual maxima xl, 5, . . . x<br />
limit xc.<br />
-<br />
then :<br />
The likelihood hction L and maximum likelihood equations are<br />
C
-e JC<br />
where yi = Xi - Y i Y, = X - u ; W = e .<br />
o a<br />
The variance-covariance matrix Y <strong>of</strong> ac U the pumeters estimated<br />
Ca<br />
from equations (9) is then given by the inverse <strong>of</strong> Rc, whose elements ri<br />
are as follows:-<br />
where c = eTC, and J and K are integrals which require to be evaluated<br />
numerically. They are given by:<br />
J 3 5<br />
5 70<br />
L<br />
i=N+r i=N+r<br />
- l/a (N+r) - E y. + E YieYi<br />
1<br />
i= 1 i= 1<br />
+ leT%d = O;<br />
i=N+r<br />
- i/a r-(N+r) + C eyi +<br />
-<br />
-<br />
i= 1<br />
where yi = x.-u ; yh %-u ; u= e - 1 -<br />
a a<br />
(13)<br />
A<br />
The variance-covariance matrix $ for a and B, the parameter estimates<br />
estimated from equations (13) is then given by the inverse '<strong>of</strong> #,<br />
whose eisments r5 are 88 follows:-<br />
- rI2h = - E[a2LogI l/a2 {(N+M (0.4228) + M u(yh - 1<br />
aaau i<br />
where J and K, are expressicm <strong>of</strong> the form <strong>of</strong> ( 1 1) <strong>with</strong> h 5 e*<br />
lower limit <strong>of</strong> integration.<br />
-q 1,<br />
as the<br />
Equations (9) and (13) are thus the modified equations to be used for the<br />
estimation <strong>of</strong> parameters f im the na-standard floods data described.<br />
have been derived in the context <strong>of</strong> reliability theory, and are given in<br />
(6). Similar expressions may be obtained for distributions other than the<br />
Gumbel distributirm by substituting the appropriate p.d.f in (7) or its<br />
equivalent fon censoring belar a threshold.<br />
They
An iterative technique for solving the equations (3) for a standard sample<br />
may be found in Jenkinson (71, who gives a worked example. This technique<br />
my be used <strong>with</strong> slight adaptation for the solution <strong>of</strong> equations (9) and<br />
(13); satisfactory results are obtained if the iteration matrix is left<br />
unchanged, i.e. given values appropriate to an uncensored sample. However,<br />
care should be taken in the choice <strong>of</strong> initial values if the proportion<br />
<strong>of</strong> censored values is high.<br />
THE AVON AT BATH - AN APPLICATION OF THE EQUATIONS<br />
The most satisfactory applications <strong>of</strong> these modified equations has been in<br />
the extension <strong>of</strong> records to achieve significantly greater precision in the<br />
resulting estimates.<br />
Avon at Bath, where a set <strong>of</strong> historic flood marks had been recorded during<br />
a historic period prior to a fairly long continuous chart record.<br />
parametex estimated from the recent record alone were compared <strong>with</strong> these<br />
estimated frcm a combined sample consisting <strong>of</strong> the historic floods and the<br />
recent records. The data used is shown in t'able 1, 1940 being the date <strong>of</strong><br />
the beginning <strong>of</strong> the recent record.<br />
One such application was for data from the river<br />
It is necessary to perform a number <strong>of</strong> checks on historic data before<br />
entering it into equations ( 13). for instance, the stage-discharge<br />
The<br />
571<br />
relaticnship derived for the recent record may require adjustment before it<br />
is applied to the historic flood marks, whose site may be at some distance<br />
from the modern gauging station. The assumption that floods are marked if<br />
(and mly if) they have risen above the threshold makes it necessary to<br />
investigate the circumstances surrounding each flood mark.<br />
time-consuming exercise, but it is one which could to a large extent be<br />
carried out by local library or museum staff who have to hand contemporary<br />
evidence such as old newspaper reports.<br />
This mey be 8
572<br />
TABLE 1. Annual Maximum Flooäa Used in the Estimation <strong>of</strong><br />
a and u in Gumbel's Extreme Value Distribution<br />
(In Cumecs).<br />
* <strong>Water</strong><br />
Year<br />
1865<br />
i866<br />
1874<br />
1875<br />
1879<br />
1882<br />
1888<br />
Flood<br />
206<br />
228<br />
12 1<br />
218<br />
264<br />
362<br />
204<br />
375<br />
154<br />
239<br />
302<br />
i86<br />
255<br />
148<br />
<strong>Water</strong><br />
Year<br />
1941<br />
1942<br />
1943<br />
1944<br />
1945<br />
1946<br />
1947<br />
1948<br />
1949<br />
1950<br />
195 1<br />
1952<br />
1953<br />
1954<br />
Flood<br />
84<br />
149<br />
' 73<br />
118<br />
128<br />
282<br />
98<br />
i04<br />
1 q3<br />
229<br />
136<br />
116<br />
96<br />
296<br />
<strong>Water</strong><br />
Year<br />
1955<br />
1956<br />
1957<br />
1958<br />
1959<br />
1960<br />
196 i<br />
1962<br />
1963<br />
1964<br />
1965<br />
1966<br />
1967<br />
1968<br />
- !he following values were obtained for the data <strong>of</strong> table 1:-<br />
N 0 32; M m 58; 1 = 48; r= 10; 5 200,<br />
and when these values, and the data <strong>of</strong> table 1, were substituted into<br />
equations (13), the estimates sham in table 2 were obtained.<br />
Flood<br />
128<br />
107<br />
138<br />
169<br />
169<br />
352<br />
12 1<br />
103<br />
277<br />
110<br />
178<br />
172<br />
31 1<br />
A<br />
Floods <strong>with</strong> various return periods were then estimated from the values <strong>of</strong> a,<br />
and ;h obtained from the e<strong>nl</strong>arged sample, by substitutitm in equation (41, and<br />
their large-samgle stenâard errore were elso calculated from equation (6).<br />
These are shown in teble 3, where values obtained from the original srmgle am ale0 shown.<br />
125
TAñLE 2. Estimates <strong>of</strong> Paretem <strong>of</strong> Gumbel's Extreme Value<br />
(1) Estimated Flood:<br />
Large-s ample<br />
standard error:<br />
(2) Estimated ' Flood:<br />
Large-sample<br />
standard error:<br />
573<br />
Distribution Using (1) Historic Flood Marks and Recent Data<br />
and (2) Recent Data Alone. (In Cumecs).<br />
Parameter<br />
(1) Estimate:<br />
Large -sample<br />
standard error:<br />
(2) Estimate:<br />
Large-sample<br />
standard error:<br />
a U Sample size<br />
47 128 29 recent values<br />
+ 13 historic values<br />
2.5 27 + 48 censored values<br />
48 128 29 recent values<br />
27 29<br />
TABLE 3. Estimates <strong>of</strong> Floods <strong>with</strong> Various Return Periods Using (1)<br />
Historic Flood Marks and Recent Data and (2) Recent<br />
Data Alone. (In Cumecs).<br />
1 Reluni Period I 2.33 (Mean) 10 25 50 100 1000 I<br />
THE AVON AT BATH - THE VALUE OF ADDITIONAL DATA<br />
155 234 278 311 344 , 453<br />
t7 - +12 +i6 219 223 i33<br />
156 236 281 314 348 458<br />
- +Il - +20 - +26 231 - t36 +51<br />
It will be seen from table 3 that the sampling error in the 50year flood<br />
estimate was reduced from 10% to 6% by the use <strong>of</strong> historic flood marks. Was<br />
this reduction worthwhile in view <strong>of</strong> the effort required to standardize the<br />
data?<br />
type.<br />
A number <strong>of</strong> approaches mw be taken ì.n answering questions <strong>of</strong> this<br />
Ultimately they involve the formulation <strong>of</strong> expressions for the benefits<br />
and c,osrs which arise from acquiring the data, and since these c m never be<br />
fully known, the problem <strong>of</strong> evaluating the worth <strong>of</strong> stream flow data are far<br />
from etrai@t-ionrard.<br />
I
574<br />
Reasonable attempts have been made, however, by E~RS <strong>of</strong> simplifying assumptions.<br />
une such attempt has been made by Wilson (81, whose method allows the<br />
estimation <strong>of</strong> the reduction in cost <strong>of</strong> a small structure consequent upon an<br />
increase in the precision <strong>of</strong> its desis flood estimate. His approach is now<br />
applied to data from the A vm at Bath.<br />
It is assumed that the total cost C mey be written as C = $+Z2 where C1 is<br />
associated <strong>with</strong> construction costs and has the form:-<br />
failure and has the form:-<br />
S<br />
c2 = K2 p,<br />
c1 = XTm> (15)<br />
and C2 is associated <strong>with</strong> the probable future damage resulting from structural<br />
where i is the optimum design flood <strong>with</strong> return period T, K1 and K2 are<br />
constants, and m and s are indices dependent an the particular structure.<br />
For smll structures m and 8 may be hssumed eausl.<br />
i 16)<br />
Wilson's formda depends partly on the fact that floods <strong>with</strong> r etm periods<br />
between 5 and 50 )ears may be represented by a power law <strong>of</strong> the following form:-<br />
5 = A$<br />
( 17)<br />
where A is a constant. p is an index which Wilscm suggests may be estimated<br />
><br />
as the ratio <strong>of</strong> the 50- to the S-year flood.<br />
following formula gives the reduction in cost (Ec) <strong>of</strong> a structure, given the<br />
precision <strong>of</strong> the estimate <strong>of</strong> the design flood (Ex):-<br />
Ec = E E'<br />
2 x'<br />
Writing n = lb - 8,<br />
_-<br />
the<br />
It should be noted that this formula applies o<strong>nl</strong>y to small structures, <strong>with</strong><br />
design floods <strong>of</strong> moderate return periods (ie. between 5 and 50 years).<br />
For the river Avon at Bath, p was found to be 0.2; taking FS= 0.75 88 a<br />
typical value, an increase in precision from 10% to 6% may be seen to lead<br />
to a decrease <strong>of</strong> 1% in the cost <strong>of</strong> a structure <strong>with</strong> a 50 years design flood.<br />
While not a high percentage, this would represent in absolute terms a sum <strong>of</strong><br />
money considerably in excess <strong>of</strong> the cost <strong>of</strong> obtaining and standardizing
the data.<br />
More importantly, a similar cost-reduction, by this analysis,<br />
575<br />
wouïd require a further 20 years <strong>of</strong> streamflow data from continuous records,<br />
which might be impractical and would certai<strong>nl</strong>y be expensive.<br />
Since the incorporation <strong>of</strong> the other type <strong>of</strong> nan-standard data considered,<br />
Le, chart censoring resulting in missing peaks, entails no extra cost, and<br />
bearing in mind that flood estimates are likely to be <strong>of</strong> interest in a<br />
variety <strong>of</strong> contexts (not o<strong>nl</strong>y one as in the above example), it may be<br />
concluded that it is on the whole worthwhile to use additional data <strong>of</strong> the<br />
types described.<br />
Acknarle dgement<br />
The author wishes to thank the following for their assistance:<br />
Robin T. Clarke, who initially suggested this study and provided<br />
valuable guidance during its progress; Con Cunnane, who made available<br />
compu+.er programs,'adaptstions <strong>of</strong> which were used in this work> and<br />
Dr Malcoiz D.Newson who collated and helped to standardize the historic data<br />
used in the eyample. This paper is presented by permission <strong>of</strong> the Director,<br />
Institute <strong>of</strong> <strong>Hydrology</strong>, Wallingford, Berkshire, U.K.<br />
1. Gumbel, E.J. (1960) Statistics <strong>of</strong> Extremes Columbia University Press<br />
Iiew York (1959).<br />
2. Moran, P.A.P. (1959) !he Theory <strong>of</strong> Storage. Methuen and Co. London (1970).<br />
3. Lowery, M.D. and Nash, J.E. (1970) A comparison <strong>of</strong> methods <strong>of</strong> fitting the<br />
double exponential distribution. Journal <strong>of</strong> <strong>Hydrology</strong> IO, 259-275.<br />
h. Kimball, B.F. (1949) An approximation to the sampling variance <strong>of</strong> an<br />
estimated maximum value <strong>of</strong> given frequency based on fit <strong>of</strong> doubly exponential<br />
distribution <strong>of</strong> m&mum values. Ann. Math. Stat., 110-1 13.<br />
5. Kendall, M.G. and Stuart N. (1961) The Advanced Theory <strong>of</strong>'statistics<br />
Vol.11. Charles Griffin and Co., Ltd, London.<br />
6. Harper, H.L. and Moore, A.H. (1968) Maximum-likelihood estimation, from<br />
doubly censored samples, <strong>of</strong> the parameters <strong>of</strong> the first asymptotic distribution<br />
<strong>of</strong> extreme values. her. Stat. Assoc. Jour. 63. 889-901.<br />
7. Jenkinson, A.F. ( 1969) Estimation. <strong>of</strong> Maximum Floods. Chapter five <strong>of</strong><br />
W Technical Report 98, 193-227.<br />
8. Wilson, K. C. ( 1972) Benefit-accuracy relationship for small structure<br />
design floods. Weter <strong>Resources</strong> Research 8(2), 508-512.
ABSTRACT<br />
ASSESSMENT OF DESIGN FLOODS IN BRAZIL<br />
Paulo Poggi Pereira<br />
The techniques utilized by the Departamento Nacional de Obras de<br />
Saneamiento for computing the caracteristics <strong>of</strong> flood to be used for<br />
designing works against inundations are described. Very seldom trus-<br />
tworthy river flood discharge measurements are obtained. In most ca-<br />
ses design flood discharges are estimated <strong>with</strong> a basis on topographic<br />
data which can be gathered quickly. Until thirty years ago the contri<br />
buting basin area was multiplied by a standard unit discharge in or-<br />
der to get the design flood discharge. Later on, the rational method<br />
was addopted, mai<strong>nl</strong>y for designing small canals. This system was con-<br />
siderably improved by the execution <strong>of</strong> .a statistical study <strong>of</strong> heavy<br />
rains observed in the Country. The choice <strong>of</strong> the heigth <strong>of</strong> some dikes<br />
was based on the high water levels attained during ancient floods ob-<br />
served and still remembered by local people. It has been found neces-<br />
sary to perform more elaborate and time-consuming hydrological obser-<br />
vations and studies for designing dams. The use <strong>of</strong> mathematical models<br />
is still Incipient but promising. <strong>Design</strong> floods <strong>of</strong> different standard<br />
periods <strong>of</strong> iecurrence are addopted according to the type <strong>of</strong> the work,<br />
the size <strong>of</strong> the river and the utilization given to the area to be pro<br />
tected.<br />
RES UME N<br />
Son descritas las técnicas empleadas por el Departamento Nacional<br />
de Obras de Saneamiento en la determinación de las caracteristicas de<br />
las crecidas a ser consideradas en el proyecto de obras contra inunda<br />
ciones. Raramente se consiguen datos de mediciones fidedigna de las<br />
descargas de crecidas de los cursos de agua. En la mayoria de los ca-<br />
sos estimanse descargas de crecidas para el proyecto, con base en da-<br />
tos topográficos que pueden ser obtenidos rápidamente. Hasta treinta<br />
años atrás, el método utilizado consistia en multiplicar el área de<br />
la cuenca hidrográfica contribuyente por una descarga especifica pa-<br />
dronizada para obtener la descarga de crecida para el proyecto. De<br />
ahí en adelante, fue adoptado el método racional, principalmente para<br />
proyectar pequefios canales. Este sistema fue considerablemente mejora<br />
do por la ejecución de un estudio estadístico de las lluvias intensas<br />
observadas en el país. La altura de algunos diques fue escogida en ba<br />
se de los niveles de agua alcanzados por antiguas crecidas, cuyos ves<br />
tigios perduran todavia y son indicados por los moradores del lugar.<br />
Para el proyecto de represas ha sido necesario realizar observaciones<br />
y estudios hidrologicos más precisos y demorados. El uso de modelos<br />
matemáticos es aún incipiente, no obstante, promisor. También, adop-<br />
tanse crecidas de proyecto con diferentes periodos de recurrencia coz<br />
forme el tipo de la obra, el caudal del curso de agua y los intereses<br />
en juego de las comunidades vecinas.
578<br />
-1 . INTRODUCTION<br />
The Departamento Nacional de Obras de Saneamento - D.N.0.S.<strong>of</strong><br />
the Brazilian Ministry <strong>of</strong> Interior, has been building flood<br />
control works for almost40 years.<br />
Such works include channel improvements, dredging and lining<br />
<strong>of</strong> canals, building <strong>of</strong> levees, dams, conduits and tunnels.<br />
The first basic step in the design <strong>of</strong> these works is the de-<br />
termination <strong>of</strong> the features <strong>of</strong> the floods to be controled or taken<br />
into account. The main methods that have been used for this purpo-<br />
se are presented in the following subtitles. It should be noted<br />
however that not every method reported is still in use.<br />
There is a generalized lack <strong>of</strong> good reliable hydrometric<br />
observations and measurements. As a consequence, indirect hydrologic<br />
methods have been used as a rule <strong>with</strong> very few exceptions.<br />
2. RATIONAL METHOD<br />
The rational method is the most widely adopted for designing<br />
canals and condui te.<br />
it gives the descharge - Q - through the equation Q = CIA ,<br />
the elemerits <strong>of</strong> which are determined as follows:<br />
The area <strong>of</strong> the drainage basin - A - is obtained from maps<br />
or aerial photographs. When none is available, field surveys are<br />
made.<br />
The run<strong>of</strong>f coefficient - c - depends primarily on land use.<br />
As an e)rample the following table was copied from (i), a recent<br />
D.N.0.S.- O.A.S. publication:<br />
Downtown areas, densely built, <strong>with</strong> paved streets and sidewalks<br />
C = 0.70 to 0.90<br />
Neighborhood areas, less densely built, <strong>with</strong> paved streets<br />
and sidewalks ,C 0.70<br />
Residential areas densely built, <strong>with</strong> paved streets C -<br />
0.65<br />
Residential areas averagely inhabited C = 0.55 to 0.65<br />
Suburban residential areas, sparsely built C = 0.35 to 0.55<br />
Residential areas <strong>with</strong> gardens and unpaved streets C = 0.30<br />
Vegetated areas, parks <strong>with</strong> gardens, unpaved sport fields<br />
c = 0.20<br />
The value <strong>of</strong> the run<strong>of</strong>f coefficient for the drainage basin<br />
is obtained by adding the products <strong>of</strong> the fractions <strong>of</strong> total drainage<br />
area occupied by each land use, multiplied by the corresponding<br />
coefficient.<br />
The determination <strong>of</strong> the rain intensity - I - is made through<br />
the following steps:
57 9<br />
a) A recurrence interval is chosen, usually obeyine, the<br />
following criteria (1 and 2):<br />
Rural area Urban area<br />
Small canal (no levees) 5 years 10 years<br />
Large canal (no levees) 10 years 25 years<br />
Small canal <strong>with</strong> levees 25 years 50 years<br />
Large canal <strong>with</strong> levees 50 years 100 years<br />
Small conduits for urban drainage 3 or more years<br />
b) The time <strong>of</strong> concentration is computed by adding the time<br />
n eeded by the rainwater fallen on the remotest part <strong>of</strong> the watershed<br />
e o reach the canal or conduit, to the travel time necessary for the<br />
water to flow to the point under study. The travel time is computed<br />
by dividínp the length <strong>of</strong> the canal or conduit by the averape<br />
flow velocity.<br />
c) A total depth <strong>of</strong> rainfall is determined taking into<br />
account the chosen recurrence interval and a duration <strong>of</strong> rain equal<br />
to the time <strong>of</strong> concentration. (3) is resorted to for this purpose.<br />
The ratio rainfall depthtrain duration gives rainfall intensity I.<br />
3. INTENSE RAINS IN BRAZIL<br />
In 1957 D.N.O.S. edited Otto Pfafstetter's "Intense Rains in<br />
Brazil" prepared mai<strong>nl</strong>y for applications <strong>of</strong> the rational method (3).<br />
This book presents the results <strong>of</strong> frequency analysis <strong>of</strong> rain<br />
fall vhlues recorded in 98 stations <strong>of</strong> the Brazilian Departamento<br />
Nacional le Meteorologia.<br />
Rainfall corresponding to several duration periods <strong>of</strong> rain<br />
(5, 15 and 30 minutes, 1, 2, 4, 8, 14, 24 and 48 hours, 1, 2, 3, 4<br />
and 6 observation days) were analysed separately for each station.<br />
Recurrence intervals <strong>of</strong> the precipitations - T - were carac-<br />
terized by the equation T = n/m, being n the total period <strong>of</strong> obser-<br />
vation and m the number <strong>of</strong> order occupied by the rainfall in a<br />
series where all observed intense precipitations were placed in de-<br />
creasing order <strong>of</strong> magnitude.<br />
This book presents diagrams, tables and formulas that allow<br />
the determination <strong>of</strong> design rainfall for the 98 studied stations up<br />
to 1000 years <strong>of</strong> recurrence intervals. Values pertaining to the<br />
station nearest to the place for where the design is being prepared<br />
are usually utilized. For checking representativeness, rainfall<br />
frequency curves <strong>of</strong> dayly precipitations <strong>of</strong> this station are some-<br />
times compared <strong>with</strong> similar curves prepared <strong>with</strong> data from a non re<br />
cording raingage instaled at the actual place <strong>of</strong> the contemplated<br />
works.<br />
4. STANDARD UNIT DISCHARGES<br />
According to (4) the rational method was addopted when D.N.QS.<br />
began its activities many years ago reclaiming swamps in the neiFh-
5 80<br />
bn,irhood <strong>of</strong> Rio de Janeiro.<br />
The reasons for this choice were the absence <strong>of</strong> discharge<br />
~~~.,?i~~ements, the frequent inexistence <strong>of</strong> defined streams in the<br />
swam-is and because it was feared that the drainage canals to becons<br />
tructcd would change so much the hydraulic caracteristics <strong>of</strong> the<br />
watersheds that the measurements would not provide a reliable basis<br />
f o r designs .<br />
On the other hand, there were no recording rain gage charts<br />
fiom ~t.ich rainfall intensities for different rainfall durations<br />
and recurrence intervals could be deducted.<br />
There were o<strong>nl</strong>y rainfall measurements performed <strong>with</strong> non re-<br />
rording rain gages for a relatively short period which showed a ma-<br />
ximum precipitation <strong>of</strong> 120mm for l day (24 hours).<br />
To get rainfall intensity, this observed depth <strong>of</strong> precipitation<br />
wds supposed to be uniformly distributed through the 24 hours<br />
<strong>of</strong> observation.<br />
So, the rain intensity addopted was always the same, regard-<br />
less <strong>of</strong> the time <strong>of</strong> concentration <strong>of</strong> the various basins. As a con-<br />
sequence, the discharge became directly proportional to the drain-<br />
age basin area.<br />
The run<strong>of</strong>f coeficient addopted €or rural basins was 0.7,<br />
obviously for compensating the weak rainfall intensity used. For<br />
these<br />
3<br />
values, the rational met9od equation gives a discharge <strong>of</strong><br />
100 m /s fLt a basin <strong>of</strong> 100 km .<br />
As a matter <strong>of</strong> fact this application <strong>of</strong> the rational method<br />
was o<strong>nl</strong>y a means <strong>of</strong> justifying the standard unit discharge <strong>of</strong> 1 m3/<br />
1s km2 that was an addopted rule <strong>of</strong> thumb. The behaviour <strong>of</strong> the u~<br />
lined rural canals designed accordingly has been good. Some ocasion<br />
al flooding has occured but <strong>with</strong>out excessive resulting damage.<br />
Another standard unit discharge is 0.5 m Is km2. It reeult-<br />
ed from a design especification asking for pumping rainwater out <strong>of</strong><br />
polders <strong>with</strong>in a few days for avoiding the breeding <strong>of</strong> mosquitoes.<br />
Here again rain intensity was not related to the concentration time<br />
<strong>of</strong> the drainage basin.<br />
5. DESIGN FLOODS FOR DAM SPILLWAYS - TRIANGULAR UNITGRAPH<br />
The design OP dam spillways is usually based on flood hydro-<br />
graphs. The triangular unitgraph presented in (5) has been used<br />
very <strong>of</strong>ten because It presents the advantage <strong>of</strong> doin <strong>with</strong>out hydro-<br />
metric data.<br />
It is believed that peak discharges obtained by this method<br />
are exagerated but flood volumes are correct. Therefore this method<br />
is considered good for cases where the dam reservoir retains much<br />
<strong>of</strong> the flood volumes.<br />
3
The following example is based on recent design computations<br />
<strong>of</strong> a dam spillway for Northeastern Brazil.<br />
a) The time <strong>of</strong> concentration was estimated by the equation<br />
<strong>of</strong> the “California Highways and Public Works” adapted for metric<br />
units :<br />
3<br />
5 0.95 x (L /<br />
TC<br />
Tc = time <strong>of</strong> concentration in hours<br />
I, = length <strong>of</strong> watercourse in km measured from divide to<br />
spillway site.<br />
581<br />
H = difference in elevation in meters between spillway site<br />
and divide.<br />
In our example L = 17 km, H = 400 m and<br />
Tc = 0.95 (lì3 / 4 0 0 ) ~ ’ = ~ 2.5 ~ ~ hours<br />
b) The time in hours from start to peak rate <strong>of</strong> unitgraph<br />
(T ) was computed<br />
-<br />
as follows for excess rains <strong>of</strong> 1 and 6 hours<br />
periods (D)<br />
-<br />
T D/2 + 0.6 Tc<br />
P<br />
For D = 1 hour, T 112 + 0.6 (2.5) = - 2 hours<br />
P<br />
For D = 6 hour6, T = 612 + 0.6(2.5) 4.5 hours<br />
P<br />
c) The time in hours from peak rate to end <strong>of</strong> unitgraph<br />
triangle (T,) was computed as follows:<br />
Tr =<br />
-<br />
1.667 T<br />
P<br />
- For D = 1 hour, Tr 1.667(2) = 3.3 hours<br />
For D = 6 hours, Tr 1.667(4.5) = 7.5 hours<br />
d) Peak rates <strong>of</strong> unitgraphs for 1 mm exceas rainfall <strong>of</strong> 1<br />
and 6 hours duration periods were computed as follows:<br />
A I<br />
‘p 1.8(T + Tr)<br />
P<br />
= peak rate in m 3 /e<br />
4P<br />
- A = drainage area in km2. In the example A = 97 km2<br />
97<br />
For D =<br />
-<br />
1 hour, 9<br />
10.2 m3~s<br />
‘p 1.8(2 + 3.3)<br />
For D = 6 hours, œ<br />
97<br />
4.5 m3/s<br />
qp 1.8(4.5 + 7.5)<br />
e) The excess rainfalls and corresponding run<strong>of</strong>f hydrographs<br />
-unitgraphs - are represented schematicaly in the annex figurestogether<br />
<strong>with</strong> lists <strong>of</strong> unitgraph discharges corresponding to the<br />
middle <strong>of</strong> consecutive one hour time intervals.
6. PROBABLE MAXIMUM PRECIPITATIONS<br />
The spillway <strong>of</strong> the example would be located uptream <strong>of</strong> a<br />
large town and the failure <strong>of</strong> its dam by flood overtoping would<br />
cause great property damage and seriously jeopardize human life in<br />
large numbers. Therefore it vas considered appropriate to utilize<br />
the maximum probable precipitation for computing the design flood.<br />
There were not enough storm data for estimating directly<br />
the values <strong>of</strong> such precipitation. The indirect approximated method<br />
proposed in (6) was used. It is based on suppos ing that maximum<br />
probable precipitation values are identical to those <strong>of</strong> a region <strong>of</strong><br />
the United States where rainfalls <strong>of</strong> 10 years recurrence interval<br />
are the same as those observed in the watershed under study.<br />
(3) was used for obtaining 10 years recurrence interval prg<br />
cipitôtions from a station nearby the spillway site and (7) permil<br />
ed to locate the area in the United States <strong>with</strong> equivalent rain-<br />
falls and also furnished the probable maximum 6-hour precipitation<br />
for a 10-square-mile area: 686 mm.<br />
By using charts from (5) values <strong>of</strong> probable maximum preci-<br />
pitations were computed for the drainage basin under study, which<br />
has an area <strong>of</strong> 97 km2 = 37.5 square-mile, for the following listed<br />
periods <strong>of</strong> duration.<br />
duraticm period<br />
houss<br />
6<br />
12<br />
1<br />
2<br />
3<br />
4<br />
5<br />
computation<br />
88% x 686<br />
107% x 686<br />
50% x 604<br />
65% x 604<br />
76% x 604<br />
85% x 604<br />
93% x 604<br />
rainfall<br />
rnm<br />
604<br />
7 34<br />
302<br />
39 2<br />
460<br />
513<br />
562<br />
Rainfall increments disposed in descending order <strong>of</strong> intensity<br />
were calculated as follows:<br />
interval duration<br />
hours<br />
rainfall increments<br />
mm<br />
1 P1 = 302<br />
392 - 302 = 90<br />
P2<br />
460 - 392 68<br />
p3<br />
513 - 460 = 53<br />
P4<br />
P5 = 562 - 513 = 49<br />
P6 604 - 562 42<br />
P12= 734 - 604 1130
583<br />
For obtaining the design precipitation, rainfall increments<br />
were tabulated in the following order as suggested in (5): P6, Pq;<br />
P3, P1, P2, l 5 nad P (see annex table).<br />
12<br />
7. RUNOFF FCTIMATION AND COMPUTATION OF THE DESIGN FLOOD HYDRC<br />
GRAPH<br />
The computation <strong>of</strong> the design flood hydrograph <strong>of</strong> the exam-<br />
ple is presented in the annex table and was made through the follo_w<br />
ing steps:<br />
a) Rainfall increments obtained as <strong>of</strong> the preceding cub-<br />
title were added in order to obtain accumulative precipitation.<br />
b) Accumulative run<strong>of</strong>f or excess rainfall was estimated by<br />
means <strong>of</strong> the equation <strong>of</strong> the "Soil Conservat ion Servi ce" presented<br />
in (5):<br />
(P<br />
2<br />
- R =<br />
0.2 S)<br />
P + 0.8 s<br />
R = run<strong>of</strong>f in mm<br />
P = accumulative precipitation in mm<br />
S = maximum potential difference P - R at time <strong>of</strong> rain's<br />
begining.<br />
S was estimated as 100 mm.<br />
c) Increments <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f were computed by subtracting the<br />
accunulative run<strong>of</strong>f obtained for the preceding interval from the<br />
accumulative run<strong>of</strong>f obtained for the interval under consideration.<br />
d) Increments <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f were compared <strong>with</strong> rainfal.1 incre-<br />
ments. The difference between them should attain at least lmm for<br />
each interval hour. As this did not happen at the last tabulated<br />
time interval the increment <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f for that interval was recal-<br />
culated by subtracting 6 mm from Phe rainfall increment.<br />
e) Increments <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f for each interval were multiplied<br />
by the unitgraph discharges listed in the annex figuresand the pro<br />
ducts were tabulated in the corresponding time intervals.<br />
f) The average discharge <strong>of</strong> the design flood in each time<br />
interval was obtained by adding the products resulting from the<br />
previous step for that tf.me interval.<br />
minal.<br />
g) The base flow was not taken into account for being no-<br />
a. STATISTICAL METHODS<br />
Frequency analysis is applied whenever records that allow<br />
its use are available, for reasons <strong>of</strong> better precision and reliability.<br />
Gumbel's and/or Hazen's methods are the most favored.<br />
D.N.O.S. files keep reports <strong>of</strong> classical hydrological studies<br />
mai<strong>nl</strong>y based on frequency analysis <strong>of</strong> water level observations<br />
and discharge measurements.
5 84<br />
One <strong>of</strong> them is an outstandingly interesting example: the de<br />
termination <strong>of</strong> the heigth <strong>of</strong> levees for protection <strong>of</strong> the city <strong>of</strong><br />
Porto Alegre against floodings <strong>of</strong> the Guaiba River.<br />
In that reach the Guaiba River forms an estuary and its<br />
water levels are dependent not o<strong>nl</strong>y on the river discharges as well<br />
as on the water level ocurring in the lagoon where it flows to ,<br />
which can be strongly influenced by winds.<br />
There were little knowledge <strong>of</strong> the elements involved and<br />
their effect.<br />
On the other hand the Guaiba River water levels had been sys<br />
tematicaly observed since 1899 by means <strong>of</strong> a staff gage installed<br />
near downtown Porto Alegre. The data so obtained was frequency an=<br />
lysed and, according to Gumbel's method the biggest recorded flood,<br />
which occured in 1941, was found to have a recurrence interval <strong>of</strong><br />
about 370 years.<br />
Local people remembered which places had been flooded and<br />
which levels had been attained by the water in different places <strong>of</strong><br />
the town during the 1941 flood. With these informations it was<br />
possible to draw a water-surface pr<strong>of</strong>ile, which was confirmed later<br />
by a hydraulic model <strong>of</strong> the estuary.<br />
It was decided to set the crest <strong>of</strong> the levees 1.20 m above<br />
that water-surface pr<strong>of</strong>ile. No discharge considerations were taken<br />
into account although discharges were estimated by making use <strong>of</strong><br />
the above mentioned model.<br />
9. MATHEMnTICAL MODELS<br />
Up to present time almost no use has been made <strong>of</strong> mathematic<br />
al hydrological models for determination <strong>of</strong> design flood caracteristics.<br />
Recently, the Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation<br />
(SSARR) Model began being used for forecasting the behaviour (flood<br />
and low water levels as well) <strong>of</strong> the Paraguay River and some tributaries.<br />
This model was develloped by the U.S. Army Corps <strong>of</strong> Engineers<br />
which addapted it for the Paraguay River basin as part <strong>of</strong> the<br />
activities <strong>of</strong> the "Project <strong>of</strong> the Hydrological Studies <strong>of</strong> the Upper<br />
Paraguay River Basin" - a UNDP/UNESCO technically assisted project<br />
for which D.N.O.S. is the responsible Brazilian counterpart agency.<br />
The potentiality <strong>of</strong> SSARR model for evaluating the caracte-<br />
ristics <strong>of</strong> design floods <strong>of</strong> large rivers is obvious and it is ex-<br />
pected be much used for this purpose in the future.<br />
10. CONCLUSION<br />
D.N.O.S. has always used addapted foreign feekiikques for<br />
assessing design floods. On the other hand, local data has been<br />
used as extensively as possible. Methods that did not allow easy
585<br />
'use <strong>of</strong> this data have not enjoyed preference. Such is the case <strong>of</strong><br />
empirical formulas for rainfall intensity and flood discharge which<br />
were used o<strong>nl</strong>y in a few instances.<br />
Elaborate methods have not been much addopted. The main<br />
reason for this may be the rather vague effect <strong>of</strong> high accuracy<br />
assessment <strong>of</strong> design flood caracteristics upon the economics <strong>of</strong><br />
flood control works in most cases, a fact that does not encourage<br />
too many efforts for refining design flood assessment.<br />
REFERENCES<br />
a<br />
1. D.N.O.S. e Organizaqao dos Estados Americanos (1972). Relató-<br />
rio do Estudo para Controle da Erosao no Noroeste do Estado do<br />
Parana, Rio de Janeiro, DNOS.<br />
2. Poggi Pereira, P. (1967). Controle de cheias: custos e benefi<br />
cios, SANEAMENTO, Rio de Janeiro, DNOS.<br />
3. Pfafstetter, O. (1957). Chuvas Intensas no Brasil, Rio de Ja-<br />
neiro, DNOS.<br />
4. Arauja Goes, H. (1942). A Baixada de Sepetiba, Rio de Janeiro,<br />
DNOS.<br />
5; U.S. Department <strong>of</strong> the Interior, Bureau <strong>of</strong> Reclamation (1960).<br />
<strong>Design</strong> <strong>of</strong> Small Dama, Washington, U.S. Government Printing<br />
Office.<br />
6. Pfafstetter, O. (1967). Floods for Spillway <strong>Design</strong>, Neuvieme<br />
Congres des Grands Barrages, Comission Internationale des<br />
Grands Barrages.<br />
7. U.S. Weather Bureau (1963). Rainfall Frequency Atlas <strong>of</strong> the<br />
United States for Durations from 30 Minutes to 24 Hours and<br />
Return Periods from 1 to 100 Years, Technical Paper NQ 40 ,<br />
Washington, Weather Bureau, U.S. Department <strong>of</strong> Commerce.
586<br />
FIGURES<br />
c.ü 5 1 hour<br />
L-<br />
or run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
-- r<br />
L-<br />
5 87<br />
M<br />
--l<br />
I<br />
N<br />
N<br />
I<br />
d<br />
d<br />
-<br />
-<br />
-<br />
1<br />
O<br />
-<br />
Io<br />
ci<br />
O<br />
c<br />
G<br />
a<br />
rl<br />
ABSTRACT<br />
A METHOD FOR THE PREDICTION OF<br />
WASHLOAD IN CERTAIN SMALL WATERSHEDS<br />
by<br />
Oswald Rendon-Herrero<br />
Present knowledge on the prediction <strong>of</strong> washload reveals that <strong>with</strong><br />
the exception <strong>of</strong> the universal soil-loss equation, and sediment-rating<br />
techniques, a rational method does not exist that can accomplish this<br />
task. A method is presented thar is analogous to Sherman's unit-hydro-<br />
graph method <strong>of</strong> hydrograph analysis. The ordinates <strong>of</strong> a sediment dis-<br />
charge graph are divided by the excess run<strong>of</strong>f that mobilized it, prod:<br />
cing a unit sediment discharge graph. When this is done for many storm<br />
events, unit sediment discharge graphs are generated that vary conside-<br />
rably in peak value and shape. The ordinates <strong>of</strong> the latter graphs are<br />
then plotted logarithmically against their respective excess run<strong>of</strong>f,<br />
yielding data points that can be fitted by straight lines. Predictions<br />
pf sediment discharge or the generation <strong>of</strong> a sediment discharge graph<br />
for a given excess run<strong>of</strong>f can be accomplished using the resulting<br />
graph, Bixler Run <strong>Water</strong>shed, Pennsylvania, having a drainage area <strong>of</strong><br />
15 square miles, was selected as a data source. Granulometric tests<br />
and otti~r related information disclosed that the suspended sediment in<br />
Bixler Ruri is predominantly washload. Prediction <strong>of</strong> washload utilizing<br />
the propose? method yielded errors that were considerably less than<br />
that reported using available sediment transport formulae and techni-<br />
ques.<br />
RE C U ME N<br />
Actualmente los conocimientos con respecto a la predicción de<br />
"washload" son bastante limitados. Con las excepciones de la ecuación<br />
universal de pérdida de suelo y técnicas sedimentarias (sediment-ra-<br />
ting) todavía no existe un método racional para resolver esta tarea.<br />
El procedimiento presentado es análogo al método de Sherman (Unit hy-<br />
drograph) o sea un análisis hidrográfico. Las ordenadas de la gráfica<br />
de descarga sedimentaria divididas entre el volumen del derrame excesi<br />
vo producen una gráfica unitaria de descarga sedimentaria. Al comple-<br />
tarse este procedimiento para muchas lluvias, gráficas unitarias de<br />
descargas sedimentarias son obtenidas y se notarán las diferencias de<br />
los cambios de valores máximos. Las ordenadas de estas Últimas gráfi-<br />
cas son trazadas logaritmicamente versus sus respectivos volúmenes de<br />
derrame excesivo rindiendo diferentes puntos de dato, los cuales pue-<br />
den unirse con líneas rectas. Predicciones de descargas sedimentarias<br />
dado cierto derrame excesivo pueden observarse en la gráfica obtenida.<br />
El área seleccionada de 15 millas cuadradas, donde los datos fueron ad<br />
quiridos queda situada en Bixler Run, Penns.ylyania. Pruebas granulomé-<br />
tricas y otras informaciones relacionadas indican que la aescarga de<br />
sedimentos en Bixler Run es casi todo "washload". El método presentado<br />
rindió errores de magnitud mínima en comparación con los errores repor<br />
tados por otras técnicas y fórmulas de transporte sedimentarias.
590<br />
INTRODUCTION<br />
Relationships have been developed whereby the sediment transport <strong>of</strong> materials<br />
which are native to a channel can be computed <strong>with</strong> varying degrees <strong>of</strong><br />
accuracy. When the sediment transport is primarily composed <strong>of</strong> the lateral inflow<br />
<strong>of</strong> particulate matter eroded from the land surface (washload) in a basin,<br />
the relationships derived are no longer velid(lg2). Heret<strong>of</strong>ore, the leteral<br />
inflow component <strong>of</strong> sediment discharge was predicted via the universal soil<br />
loss equation(*), and sediment rating techniques.<br />
these methods are subject to large errors. The universal soil loss equation<br />
has the disadvantage <strong>of</strong> providing o<strong>nl</strong>y annual predictions, The need for quantitative<br />
evaluation <strong>of</strong> washload is <strong>of</strong> paramount importance at the present time.<br />
A method is presented which is applicable to certain small watersheds and<br />
which can enable the prediction <strong>of</strong> sediment discharge on a storm basis. By<br />
"small" is meant those watersheds where the spati ribution <strong>of</strong> the rainfall<br />
is uniform over the watershed area. Some authors<br />
Predicted quantities using<br />
$3 ,w<br />
define a small water-<br />
shed as being less than 161.0 or as much as 3219.0 square kilometers in area.<br />
"Certain" refers to the sediment discharge graph's locus (sedimentgraph) dependency<br />
on the soil type. For general stream conditions, fine-grained and<br />
colloidal materials transported in suspension will yield. a sedimentgraph that<br />
appreciably parallels the shape <strong>of</strong> its associated hydrograph; under similar<br />
stream conditions, coarser particles in transport will not result in parallelshaped<br />
discharge graphs. The applicability <strong>of</strong> the series graph method depends<br />
on the para!lel nature <strong>of</strong> the sedimentgraph and hydrograph for a given excess<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f. Use ~f the adjective "series" is explained in the Analysis <strong>of</strong> Da<br />
section <strong>of</strong> this paper. The series graph method is analogous to Sherman's F%><br />
unit hydrograph prc,zedure for the analysis <strong>of</strong> a direct discharge hydrograph.<br />
The series graph method is demonstrated using Bixler Run <strong>Water</strong>shed, a<br />
monitored drainage basin 38.9 square kilometers in area near Loysville, Penn-<br />
sylvania (Figure 1). Granulometric measurements made <strong>of</strong> the bed, bank, and<br />
suspended sediment, has established the sediment transport in Bixler Run as<br />
being predominantly washload. Sediment sampling in the Bixier Run <strong>Water</strong>shed was<br />
begun on February 1, 1954, using a U.S.D-43, and a DH-48 depth integrating<br />
hand sampler(7).<br />
The series graph method is used where the quantitative analysis <strong>of</strong> wash-<br />
load is necessary for the prediction <strong>of</strong> sediment discharge and/or variation<br />
<strong>with</strong> time. The prediction <strong>of</strong> total sediment discharge is required for example<br />
where the rate <strong>of</strong> sedimentation can become problematic. This consideration is<br />
particularly important in the allocation <strong>of</strong> storage volumes in new reservoirs.<br />
WASHLOAD<br />
Due to a series <strong>of</strong> rainfall-induced erosive processes, particulate matter<br />
eventually reaches a stream course after being transported through a great<br />
variety <strong>of</strong> distances in a drainage basin. Depending on such characteristics<br />
as, for example, land slope and length, topography, and availability <strong>of</strong> trans-<br />
portable surficial soils, various-sized particles can, given ample time, reach<br />
the main waterways in a basin.<br />
Depending upon the streamflow character, some <strong>of</strong> the eroded materials that<br />
reach the stream course as lateral inflow combine <strong>with</strong> sediments native to the<br />
channel proper and continue to be transported downstream by the prevailing flow.<br />
The lateral inflow <strong>of</strong> Sediment is known as washload. Sediment transport in the
s t-ct'arn may be accomplished by four generally accepted modes depending primarily<br />
upon particle diameter and stream transport capability. The transport modes are<br />
known as contact, saltation, suspended, and solution load. The saltation load<br />
in combination <strong>with</strong> the contact load is generally assumed to comprise the bed<br />
load. The sum <strong>of</strong> the suspended, bed, and solution loads is called the total<br />
load. Of particular note here is the fact that there is no sharp line <strong>of</strong> demarcation<br />
between m terials tifried as bed load ot as suspended load. Some<br />
authors (e.g., Graf ?I), Shen<br />
the washload may comprise from 90 to 95 percent <strong>of</strong> the total sediment load.<br />
The scope <strong>of</strong> this paper is limited solely to washload. Bed load, and<br />
suspended sediments mobilized from the bed, are not considered <strong>with</strong>in the con-<br />
text <strong>of</strong> this paper.<br />
591<br />
, Chow(3)) have indicated that in many instances<br />
THEORY<br />
Of the numerous sediment transport equations that have been presented,<br />
none have been derived which account for the lateral inflow <strong>of</strong> water-soil mixtures<br />
(washload) originating from sheet and gully erosion <strong>of</strong> land surfaces in<br />
a drainage basin. Shen(*) points out, "Finally, none <strong>of</strong> the equations for predicting<br />
suspended load account for the washload <strong>of</strong> the stream." Shen(') also<br />
indicates that application <strong>of</strong> the available suspended sediment transport<br />
equations to stream give rise to substantial error.<br />
The existing sediment transport equations are based solely on the mobilization<br />
<strong>of</strong> fine particulate concentrations (sediment suspensions) and coarse<br />
layered masses <strong>of</strong> the bed, which are native to the stream channel. Of importance<br />
here Is the fact that in most instances, the quantity <strong>of</strong> washload derived<br />
from lateral inflm can be substantially greater than the suspended sediment<br />
native to the bei. Several authors (e.g., Graf (11, Shen(') y Chow(3)) estimate<br />
that the bed load contribution to the total sediment load is usually on the<br />
order <strong>of</strong> five percent, and may in some cases be 'neglected from total load calculati<br />
ms.<br />
Given the flow condition and composition <strong>of</strong> materials native to the bed,<br />
several relationships have been developed that .provide a general relationship<br />
for the rate <strong>of</strong> sediment transport. It is not the intent <strong>of</strong> this paper to<br />
present a development <strong>of</strong> the available sediment transport (bed load, suspended<br />
load, or total load) equations, since their basis <strong>of</strong> derivation places them<br />
outside <strong>of</strong> the realm <strong>of</strong> washload phenomena and, therefore, the scope <strong>of</strong> this<br />
study.<br />
The reader is referred to Graf (1) y Shen(') , and Nordin and McQuivey(8)<br />
for a general development and assessment <strong>of</strong> available sediment transport<br />
formulae.<br />
COMPILATION OF DATA: BIXLER RUN WATERSHED<br />
Storm events were chosen according to accepted hydrograph analysis criteria<br />
and which appreciably satisfied certain analogous sedimentgraph analysis con-<br />
ditions. The storm events were primarily classified according to the degree to<br />
which the locus <strong>of</strong> fhe sedimentgraphs were defined by sampling. In many instances<br />
sampling in the region <strong>of</strong> the crest <strong>of</strong> the sedimentgraph was not accomplished;<br />
the Bixler Run project hydrologist therefore estimated the peak's shape from<br />
the relative positions <strong>of</strong> the rise and recession sample points and from know-<br />
ledge <strong>of</strong> previous sedimentgraphs where the peak was known. The latter class-<br />
ifications yielded 63 storm events, which were grouped on the basis <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
derived during winter (October to March) and Sumner months (April to September).
592<br />
UNIT GRAPH DEVELOPMENT (WATER AND SEDIMENT DISCHARGE)<br />
Processing <strong>of</strong> the stage hydrograph and sedimentgraph for inidividual storm<br />
s!i>ents involved as a first step the separation <strong>of</strong> base flow from the total dis-<br />
charge. In the case <strong>of</strong> the stage hydrograph, baseflow was assumed to comprise<br />
both groundwater flow and interflow. Base flow for the sedimentgraph was<br />
assumed to be the sediment flow prior to the beginning <strong>of</strong> the rise <strong>of</strong> a sedi-<br />
mrntgraph for a particular storm event. The base flow separation technique<br />
WJS identical for both the stage hydrograph and sedimentgraph (see Figure 2).<br />
Point A (or A') on Figure 2 is defined as the point where the rise <strong>of</strong> the dis-<br />
charge graph begins and is determined by inspection. Line AB (or A'B') is a<br />
tangential straight line projection, continuous <strong>with</strong> the base flm curve pre-<br />
ceding it, emanating from point A ,(or A') and bisecting a vertical line drawn<br />
through the peak. Generally, the points B and B' were appreciably in phase<br />
for most <strong>of</strong> the storm events considered in the analysis. On the average, where<br />
such was not the case the hydrograph peak lagged the sedimentgraph peak by one<br />
hour. The point C (or Cl) is determined by drawing tangents on the recession<br />
and base flow portions <strong>of</strong> the curves; the bisector <strong>of</strong> the tangents intersects<br />
at a point assumed to be at the termination <strong>of</strong> surface run<strong>of</strong>f C (or C').<br />
Although the separation technique utilized in this analysi bitrary , the<br />
important feature is the consistency <strong>of</strong> its use throughout $3fay3f the data<br />
process ing.<br />
The resulting direct flow discharge graph data was then processed by<br />
computer to derive the unit hydrograph, unit sedimentgraph, excess rainfall,<br />
and associated sediment mobilized.<br />
Hyetogrqhs were constructed for the selected storms in order to determine<br />
duration for thc derived unit graphs. This was donefor winter and Sumner<br />
rainfall storms ordy.<br />
GRANULOMETRIC MEASUREMENTS OF SUSPENDED,<br />
CHANNEL-BED, AND CHANNEL-BANK MATERIALS<br />
Grain-size analyses <strong>of</strong> suspended-load , channel-bed , and channel-bank<br />
materials were conducted by the USGS District Office, Surface <strong>Water</strong> Quality<br />
Branch, Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.<br />
The compiled data serves as a basis for comparison <strong>of</strong> the materials transported<br />
during storm events and as a basis for reiative classification <strong>of</strong> the<br />
prevailing transport mode (washload, bed load, etc.).<br />
Results <strong>of</strong> 115 granulometric tests conducted on the bed, bank, and suspend-<br />
ed sediment samples are plotted in Figure 3. Granulometric distributions obtained<br />
from the tests generally plot as three distinct bands <strong>of</strong> points, <strong>with</strong> a<br />
minor degree <strong>of</strong> overlapping. For clarity, o<strong>nl</strong>y the arithmetic mean curves are<br />
presented on Figure 3.<br />
These were determined by sumning the percents finer than<br />
by weight at a given particle size diameter and material source (bed, bank, or<br />
suspended), and obtaining an arithmetic average.<br />
Figure 3 corroborates verbal communication between the project hydrologists<br />
<strong>of</strong> the USGS, Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, and this worker, to the effect<br />
that materials encountered in the bed are primarily coarse-grained. In many<br />
instances, bedrock is exposed at the surface. The suspended material, therefore,<br />
can o<strong>nl</strong>y have had as its primary source <strong>of</strong> origin the watershed's land<br />
slopes. The distinctness <strong>with</strong> which the individual mean curves plot on Figure<br />
3 is also indicative <strong>of</strong> significantannoring <strong>of</strong> the bed. Armoring is the time-
wise removal <strong>of</strong> fine particulate matter from the bed.<br />
Sed imcntgrriph Analysis<br />
ANALYSIS OF DATA<br />
The original premise proposed in this study was that the unit hydrograph - .<br />
concept as applied to a direct run<strong>of</strong>f hydrograph was directly analogous in the<br />
iinalyiiis <strong>of</strong> d sedim@negraph, A fami <strong>of</strong> a tirlit gedinientgraph idas indeed develop.<br />
ed whose standard unit was 1.0 kilogram for a given duration, distributed over<br />
the watershed area, analogous in unit-hydrograph analysis to 1.0 centimeter <strong>of</strong><br />
excess (effective) rainfall over the same area. The shape <strong>of</strong> the resulting<br />
unit sedimentgraphs varied o<strong>nl</strong>y slightly for different rainfall events <strong>of</strong> a<br />
given duration, as is anticipated in unit-hydrograph analysis. In order to<br />
utilize such a unit sedimentgraph in generating a sedimentgraph for a particular<br />
storm event, the total amount <strong>of</strong> sediment mobilized during the event would have<br />
to be known or estimated. A relationship has been determined between total<br />
sediment mobilized and excess run<strong>of</strong>f for single storm events. This is shown<br />
on Figure 4, for run<strong>of</strong>f events resulting from winter and summer storms.<br />
The latter approach would, therefore, entail the estimation <strong>of</strong> total<br />
sediment mobilized on the basis <strong>of</strong> a known or predicted run<strong>of</strong>f excess as an<br />
initial step, followed by the selection, based on duration, <strong>of</strong> an appropriate<br />
unit sedimentgraph. The latter can then yield a sedimentgraph by multiplying<br />
the individual unit sedimentgraph ordinates by the total sediment mobilized.<br />
A simpler approach, however, was adopted which has the advantage that consideration<br />
<strong>of</strong> duration <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f excess may be neglected altogether; the relationship<br />
developed, as will be shown, is independent <strong>of</strong> duration.<br />
Once the observed total discharge hydrographs and sedimentgraphs were<br />
graphically convzrted to direct discharge graphs by deducting the base flow,<br />
the following calculations were performed:<br />
DDi = DTi - DBi (1)<br />
Where DD. is direct water discharge in cubic meters per second (hereinafter<br />
designated as crns)<br />
DT is total water discharge in crns<br />
i .<br />
DB. is base water discharge in crns.<br />
The subskript "i" refers to the time at which water discharge values (e.g.,<br />
DTi) are measured on the hydrograph's abscissa. For this analysis the hydrograph's<br />
time base was divided into "n" two-hour increments.<br />
Similarly,<br />
SDi = STi - SBi ( 2)<br />
where SD, is direct sediment discharge in parts per million (hereinafter<br />
designated as ppm)<br />
ST. is total sediment discharge in ppm<br />
SB: is base sediment discharge in ppm.<br />
Thelmagnitude <strong>of</strong> the ppm units is equivalent to mg/A units (milligrams per<br />
liter) as long as the sediment concentration does not exceed 15,900 ppm (9).<br />
Concentrations greater than 15,900 ppm have to be multiplied by a factor (9) in<br />
order to convert ppm to mg/Q units. The units <strong>of</strong>.the direct sediment discharge<br />
(SDi) are then converted from ppm units to kilograms per day, thusly,<br />
593
594<br />
Where Si is direct sediment discharge in kilograms per day, 86.56 is a factor<br />
for converting the sediment discharge to kilograms per day.<br />
Excess run<strong>of</strong>f and the associated sediment mobilized are determined as<br />
follows:<br />
i-1<br />
i=l<br />
Where ER is excess run<strong>of</strong>f in centimeters per square kilometer <strong>of</strong> drainage basin,<br />
A is the watershed area in square kilometers,<br />
0.1157 is a factor for converting the remaining elements <strong>of</strong> Equation 4 to<br />
centimeters per square kilometer,<br />
ES is sediment mobilized in kilograms per square kilometer.<br />
Individual unit sedimentgraph ordinates are determined thusly,<br />
usoi =<br />
'i<br />
Yhere USO. is the individual unit sedimentgraph ordinate in units <strong>of</strong> square<br />
kilometer per day. Multiplying USOi by kilograms per squre kilo-<br />
Eaters , yields kilograms per day.<br />
Equation 6, as was previously pointed out, cannot directly be used in the<br />
fashion <strong>of</strong> a unit hydrograph ordinate. The method, therefore, requires the<br />
following operation,<br />
SGO.i =<br />
'i<br />
Where SGOi is an individual "series" graph ordinate in units <strong>of</strong> kilograms per<br />
day per centimeter <strong>of</strong> excess.run<strong>of</strong>f per square kilometer. By<br />
"series" is meant that in contrast to a unit sedimentgraph ordinate<br />
which approximately superpose each other for a given duration, a<br />
series <strong>of</strong> graphs are obtained which vary considerably in shape and<br />
peak. For the purpose <strong>of</strong> discussion, Figure 5 will hereinafter be<br />
referred to as a series graph.<br />
The series graph lines were developed by plotting SGOi for a given excess<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f. This entailed some judgment in the selection <strong>of</strong> coordinate points. The<br />
latter procedure is analogous to selecting a mean unit hydrograph curve from a<br />
number <strong>of</strong> curves, which in practice generally do not overlap for a given<br />
duration. The judgment used was partly justified by the fact that the least<br />
squares line fit <strong>of</strong> the selected coordinate points (p, p 2 2, etc.) have a<br />
distinct tendency to plot approximately parallel to each other. This is indicative<br />
<strong>of</strong> a prevailing trend.<br />
Series graphs were constructed for winter including rainfall and snowmelt,<br />
and for s mer months.<br />
coordinate points were plotted in time groups referenced to the peak discharge<br />
(p). Thus p + 2 for example, refers to the direct discharge ordinate two hours<br />
(7)<br />
These are shown on Figure 5. The SGO. versus "ER"
after the peak; in all, the time increments considered were p,+ 2, p + 4, and<br />
fir the summer events o<strong>nl</strong>y, p + 6. Generally p + 6 represents a negligible<br />
discharge quantity, very frequently zero, and was therefore assumed to be<br />
zero for winter rainfall and snowmelt events.<br />
This writer is <strong>of</strong> the opinion that for this particular analysis a great<br />
part <strong>of</strong> the data scatter on the series graph and Figure 4, can be explained by<br />
the mnnncr in which the sedimentgraphs were defined by sampling. The data<br />
points are not shown since some overlapping exists as refers to p 5 n lines.<br />
The sedimentgraphs selected for analysis did not have continuously defined loci.<br />
As a result, graphical interpolation and judgment by the USGS, based on experience<br />
and knowledge <strong>of</strong> sediment behavior, were incorporated in drawing the sedimentgraphs<br />
between measured points. The observed sediment concentration points<br />
were used as guides. It may be possible, therefore, to considerably reduce the<br />
scatter <strong>of</strong> points by adequately defining sedimentgraph loci for a given storm<br />
event by more frequent sampling. Most <strong>of</strong> the sedimentgraphs considered herein<br />
generally had from four to six, and at times as many as 10 observed sample<br />
points defining th graphs; in many <strong>of</strong> the cases the USGS estimated the magnitude<br />
and location <strong>of</strong> the peak in its entirety. Consideration <strong>of</strong> scatter, at<br />
least in this study, would suggest, that an attempt at explaining the variation<br />
due to watershed soil types, vegetative cover, slope, etc., would be meaningless.<br />
This worker would, however, opine that the loci <strong>of</strong> well-defined<br />
sedimentgraphs would lead to the development <strong>of</strong> series graphs prossessing<br />
less scatter.<br />
Exsmples <strong>of</strong> sedimentgraphs predicted on the basis <strong>of</strong> season and run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
excess art. shown on Figure 6. Table I lists comparisons between predicted and<br />
actual eroded sediment quantities in Bixler Run as shown in Figure 6. To<br />
illustrate the ;ange <strong>of</strong> applicability <strong>of</strong> the series graph method to Bixier Run,<br />
variations in excess run<strong>of</strong>f for snowmelt or rainfall are included in Table I.<br />
For the four storm events considered in Table I, the average error <strong>of</strong> estimate<br />
for washload ranges from 16.1 to 16.5 percent as determined by the series graph<br />
method and the ES versus ER graphical relationships, respectively. This is<br />
based on comparisons <strong>with</strong> ac'tual conditions observed in the field. The errors<br />
<strong>of</strong> estimate computed are all considerably below that reported for similar suspended<br />
sediment load predictions, which may in some cases by greater than 100<br />
percent.<br />
TABLE I<br />
Comparison <strong>of</strong> Predicted versus Computed Sedimentgraphs<br />
595<br />
Sediment Mobilized Percent Error<br />
Date Excess<br />
Run<strong>of</strong>f Source <strong>of</strong><br />
(tons/sq. km.)<br />
Actual Predicted<br />
Total Sediment<br />
Bases (%)<br />
centimetersf sq.<br />
h.<br />
Run<strong>of</strong>f BY BY BY BY<br />
Series ES vs. Series ES vs.<br />
Graph ER Graph ER<br />
Method Curves Method Curves<br />
10/19/68 . O35 Win ter-Ra inf a 11 19.6 27.9 27.7 29.6 29.1<br />
031 10/67 .343 Winter-Snowmelt 1523.0 1293.0 1330.0 17.8 12.6<br />
10/04/62 .572 Winter-Rainfall 2710.0 2694.0 2555.0 0.50 5.7<br />
05f07f 56 .O55 Summer-Rainfall 73.8 61.7 91.0 16.5 18.7
596<br />
CONCLUS IONS<br />
This study discloses two important findings for Bixler Run <strong>Water</strong>shed.<br />
597
598<br />
1.50<br />
1.25<br />
I 1.00<br />
1.75<br />
; peak<br />
\<br />
HYDROGRAPH<br />
?noon 6pm i2pm Gain 12nocn 6pm l2gin 6am 12noon<br />
I_ -I.-.--I-<br />
TIME IN HOURS<br />
FIGURE 2 : TYPICAL STAGE HYDROGRAPH AJW SEDI?KNTGRAPW<br />
(s-roiwi OF MARCH 13, 1963, BIXLER BUN WATERSHED )<br />
5
599
600<br />
3502<br />
a<br />
w<br />
I-<br />
w<br />
I<br />
O<br />
4<br />
Y<br />
W<br />
a<br />
4<br />
350.<br />
u)<br />
\<br />
cn<br />
z<br />
a<br />
a:<br />
W<br />
O<br />
1<br />
y.<br />
- z<br />
.<br />
cn<br />
hl<br />
e<br />
c3<br />
W<br />
N<br />
4 35.0<br />
m<br />
O<br />
z<br />
I-<br />
z<br />
Id<br />
2<br />
I<br />
a<br />
Ill<br />
o)<br />
3.5<br />
(<br />
BIXLER RUN WATERSHED<br />
w<br />
;o098 0.0098 0.098<br />
EXCESS RUNOFF ( ER ) , IN CENTIRIETERS / SQUARE I(Il.Ol\r;ETER<br />
FIGURE 4: SEGIMENT Mû01LjZEü \E:;) VERSUS EXCESS RIINOFF (ER)
I I I I 1 1 1 1 1 I I I I I I I I I<br />
- EIXLER RUN WATERSHED<br />
- legend:<br />
- p peak value.<br />
II I,<br />
p+n n hours before (-1 or after (el peak.<br />
- --summer roinf al I.<br />
- ______winter rainfall. - - winter snowmelt.<br />
0.72C I I I I 1 1 1 1 1 1 I I I 1 1 1 1 1<br />
I<br />
0:00098 0.0098 0.098<br />
6 O1
602<br />
ò A v a p-6 p-4 P-2 P P+2 pt4 pt6<br />
TIME IN HOURS<br />
FIGURE 6 : PREDICTED GRAPH OF SEDIMENT DISCHARGE VERSUS<br />
TI ME
ABSTRACT<br />
METHODES UTILISEES pour 1'EVALUATION des DEBITS de CRUE<br />
des PETITS COURS d'EAU en REGIONS TROPICALES<br />
par J. A. RODIER<br />
For most <strong>of</strong> the tropical small streams studied by the author,<br />
the floods result from surface run<strong>of</strong>f, field <strong>of</strong> application <strong>of</strong> unit<br />
graphs. Hydrometric networks are useless for the floods <strong>of</strong> these basins<br />
(less than 500 km2). Two methods are described:<br />
For area <strong>with</strong>out cyclonic precipitations: the depth <strong>of</strong> the<br />
storm <strong>of</strong> the frequency choosed for the project is computed assuming the<br />
other characteristics equal to the more frequent values for the big<br />
storms. The transformation <strong>of</strong> rainfall into discharge is made in two<br />
steps: computation <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f coefficient and flood volume, computation<br />
<strong>of</strong> characteristics <strong>of</strong> the hydrograph. This incorrect method gives good<br />
results if used <strong>with</strong> judgement. Empirical graphs and rules have been<br />
deduced from systematical researches on representative basins for comp~<br />
tation <strong>of</strong> the elements <strong>of</strong> the flood from physiographical data. A gene-<br />
ral synthesis will permit a better characterization <strong>of</strong> the basins.<br />
In area <strong>with</strong> cyclones: the precipitation depth are estimated<br />
from the observations and high values <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f coefficient are choosed<br />
in rel&tion <strong>with</strong> observations or envelope curves are drawn from obser-<br />
ved data 5.n the world.<br />
RESUME<br />
Pour la plupart des petits cours d'eau tropicaux étudiés par<br />
l'auteur, les crues résultent du ruissellement superficiel, domaine<br />
d'application de l'hydrogramme unitaire.<br />
Les réseaux hydrométri ues sont sans utilité pour les crues<br />
de ces bassins (moins de 500 km 9 ), Deux méthodes sont décrites:<br />
Pour les régions non affectées par les cyclones: on détermine<br />
l'averse de fréquence égale à celle de la crue du projet, les autres<br />
caractéristiques étant les plus fréquentes pour les tres fortes aver-<br />
ses. La transformation en débit est faite en deux temps: calcul du coe<br />
fficient de ruissellement et du volume de crue, calcul des caractéris-<br />
tiques de l'hydrogramme. Cette méthode non rigoureuse fournit de bons<br />
résultats si elle est employée avec discernement. Des diagrammes ou<br />
des règles empiriques sont déduits de recherches systématiqyes sur bac<br />
sins représentatifs, pour calculer les éléments de la crue a partir<br />
des données physiographiques. Une synthèse générale permettra de mieux<br />
caractériser les bassins.<br />
Dans les régions de cyclones: on détermine les averses d'après<br />
les valeurs observées et on suppose des coefficients de ruissellement<br />
tres élevés en rapport avec ces observations, ou on établit directement<br />
les courbes enveloppes a partir des données observées dans le monde.<br />
Chef du Service Hydrologique de l'<strong>of</strong>fice de la Recherche Scientifique<br />
et Technique Outre-Mer<br />
Conseiller Scientifique à Electricité de France (DAFECOI.
604<br />
L'étude des ouvrages utilisant les eaux des petites rivières<br />
tropicales ou méditerranéennes présente de très sérieuses difficultés<br />
dès que loon aborde la dbtermination des conditions hydrologiques de<br />
réalisation et d'exploitation des ouvrages, en particulier celle des<br />
d6bits moyens annuels et surtout celle des ddbits de crues.<br />
Les donnhes sur le régime hydrologique sont dans ce cas<br />
inexistantes : la densit& des réseaux hydronktriques est faible, le<br />
nombre de stations amdnagées est nul ou dérisoire. LEh outre, les varia-<br />
tions temporelles des débits sont si rapides que les donn&es de ces sta-<br />
tions sont souvent difficiles à exploiter. Enfin, contrairement & ce qui<br />
a lieu pour les grandes rivières, les crues de faible frequente ne lais-<br />
sent aucun souvenir dans la mémoire des habitants les plus proches.<br />
I1 est très sou-ntinipsible de procéder 2 une étude hydrologi-<br />
que sérieuse sur le terrain pour un seul ouvrage car elle durerait long-<br />
temps et son prix atteindrait ou dépasserait même celui de l'ouvrage lui-<br />
même<br />
Tout ce que l'on peut faire c'est organiser une telle étude à<br />
l'occasion de la r8alisation d'une série importante de tels ouvrages,<br />
par exempie pour la construction de tous les ponts d'une longue voie<br />
ferrée (chemin de €er transcamerounais), ou d'un grand axe routier, ou<br />
lorsqu'o, ariiinage i la fois 30 ou 50 petits barrages comme cela a 6t6 le<br />
cas en I!AUî.Q-VOLTA il y a quelques années.<br />
Autrement, on est conduit & utiliser les résultats de synthèses<br />
& caractère g6ogr;pliique.<br />
Nos hydrologues ont souvent rencontré ce problème en Afrique<br />
Tropicale, en Am6rique du Sud, dans les fles du Pacifique et de l'Océan<br />
Indien et ils ont mis au point différentes rnbthodes pour la détermination<br />
des débits moyens annuels et des dLbits de crue, premiers 6léments que le:<br />
ingénieurs demandent aux hydrologues.<br />
Dans ce qui suit, nous ne traiterons que le probleme de la dé-<br />
termination des d&its de crue dans le cas de cours d'eau dont le bassin<br />
versant couvre une superficie inférieure 200 km2 et plus souvent infé-<br />
rieure à 50 km2. Au-delà de ces surfaces, les m6thodes ne sont plus les<br />
memes. Ellos correspondent souvent en effet la limite d'emploi de l'hy-<br />
drogramme unitaire et des modèles globaux.<br />
Pour ces petits bassins, on considérera deux cas différents sui-<br />
vant la genbse des crues exceptionnelles. Dans le premier cas, elles sont<br />
dues a des orages convectifs avec prhcipitations intenses mais d'assez<br />
courte durbej dans le second cas, il s'agit de précipitations cycloni-<br />
ques ?ì iiitensité plus faible mais de plus longue durde, les derniers 616-<br />
ments de l'hpisode pluvieux arrivant sur un sol pratiquement saturé.
1. Cas de crues provoquées par des orages convectifs,<br />
605<br />
La mise au point de méthodes pratiques nous a demandé quinze<br />
ans de recherches fondamentales. Nous passerons rapidement sur ces<br />
recherches pour insister plus particulièrement sur la m6thodologie<br />
proposGe aux ing6nieurs, cette méthodologie n'étant guère applicable<br />
que pour des p6riodes de retour de 10 ou 20 ans. L'idée de base est<br />
IQutilisatian de l'information pluviomhtrique existante et plus parti-<br />
culièrement des sc'ries chronologiques de précipitations journalières<br />
et la transformation des hauteurs de prGcipitations en débits de ruis-<br />
sellemelit superficiel. Pour des averses de ce type et d'assez faible<br />
frcquerice, en réginns tropicales et méditerranéennes, il se produit<br />
g(!nbralernent du ruissellement superficiel, ce qui permet l'emploi de<br />
la m6thode de l'hydrogramme unitaire.<br />
1.1. Recherches fondamentales entreprises.<br />
Les plus importantes ont ét6 les suivantes :<br />
1.l.l.Etudes g&n&rales statistiques des pluies journalières. En<br />
Afrique Occidentale OU elles ont été le plus poussées, elles ont port6<br />
sur 1 O00 stations environ. L'étude simultanée pour un grand nombre de<br />
statioils a conduit a des valeurs assez sûres des paramètres des lois de<br />
distribuLion pour des p6riodes de retour de 10 à 20 ans. Eh particulier,<br />
elle u cona.iit ?i abandonner, pour cette région du monde, la distribution<br />
de GALTOW tro2 pessimiste,pour une distribution de PEARSON III. Sur le<br />
plan pratique, on en a déduit une série acceptable de précipitations<br />
journali&res de période de retour 10 ans ou 20 ans.<br />
1.1.2.Etude de l'abattement (Inverse du rapport pour une méme frdquen-<br />
ce, eiitre la hauteur de précipitations en un point et la hauteur de prcci-<br />
pitations sur une surface donnée entourant ce point). Les études menées à<br />
partir de données recueillies sur bassins représentatifs ont conduit a<br />
des ordres de grandeur acceptables pour la pratique.<br />
1.1.3.Etudes des courbes intensité-durée : ces études faites surtout<br />
à partir des pluviographes des bassins représentatifs ont permis, pour<br />
l'Afrique Occidentale, de donner des courbes-types.<br />
1.1.4.Etude des relations pluies-débits : celles-ci ont été etudibes<br />
averse par averse pendant plusieurs années sur une centaine de bassins<br />
reprGsentatifs, qui ont également 6té utilisés pour les recherches vi-<br />
sées aux points 1.1.2 et 1.1.3. La méthode des r6sidus a permis de dé-<br />
teniiiner dans chaque cas la hauteur d'eau bcoulée HR ou le rapport KR<br />
entre HH et la hauteur de précipitation P eii fonction de P, des condi-<br />
tions d'humidité du sol avant l'averse et de la durée de l'averse.<br />
1.1.5.Etude de la forme des hydrogrammes. Sur les mgmes bassins re-<br />
prdseiitatifs, on a pu appliquer la mgthode des liydrograrimes unitaires<br />
et dbterminer la forme des hydrogranines-types. On en a retenu trois
606<br />
éléments caractéristiques : le temps de montée tm , la durée de ruis-<br />
sellement tg et le rapport k entre le débit de pointe de l'hydrogramme<br />
unitaire et le débit moyen pendant la durée du ruissemment.<br />
1.2. bisthode de détermination des débits de pointes de crue et de leur<br />
volume.<br />
Le cas des fréquences décennales ou de fréquences voisines<br />
est assez différent de celui de la crue maximale probable. Dans ce qui<br />
suit nous traiterons le cas des crues de périodes de retour de 10 ans<br />
ou 20 ans.<br />
De façon générale, on a cherché à mettre au point des méthodes<br />
simples qui puissent &tre utilisées sans ordinateur. Ces méthodes sont<br />
probablement très différentes de celles qui sont élaborées actuellement<br />
et qui seront vulgarisées dans quelques années, mais de nombreux pays en<br />
voie de développement ne disposent pas, à l'heure présente, de moyens de<br />
calculs suffisants et n'ont pas assez de personnel bien entraîné pour les<br />
utiliser pour des fins hydrologiques.<br />
C'est pourquoi, dans ce qui suit, on adoptera les principes sui-<br />
vants, dont certains sont discutables, mais qui permettent aux ingénieurs<br />
d'arriver à des résultats utilisables avec les moyens dont ils disposent.<br />
1.2.1.Principes du calcul : Le point de départ est la série d'obser-<br />
vations de précipitations journalières au poste le plus proche de l'ou-<br />
vrage que l'on a & étudier ou un poste pluviométrique correspondant aux<br />
mdmes conditions pluviométriques si la qualit6 des données du pluviomè-<br />
tre le plus proche est insuffisante.<br />
Des bassins de 50 km2 sont généralement assez homogènes, mais,<br />
dans le cas de forte différence d'altitude, le poste pluviométrique choi-<br />
si devra se trouver à peu près à l'altitude moyenne du bassin et non pas<br />
au niveau de l'esutoire, ce qui rend le choix beaucoup plus difficile.<br />
On étudie la distribution statistique des précipitations journalières ce<br />
qui, en région tropicale, correspond à peu près à la distribution des<br />
averses orageuses et on détermine l'averse correspondant ?I la fréquence<br />
de la crue (période de retour 10 ans, 15 ans, 20 ans, etc...). On recher-<br />
che, en Ltudiant lee 'enregistrements disponibles, quel est le schéma lo<br />
plus courant des répartitions des intensités pour une averse donnée, on<br />
examine également quelles sont les conditions moyennes d'humidité préa-<br />
lables que rencontrent généralement les fortes crues. Enfin, on trans-<br />
forme la hauteur de précipitation en un point par la hauteur de préci-<br />
pitation moyenne sur une surface en la multipliant par un coefficient<br />
d'abattement inférieur à 1.<br />
Au moyen du modele de transformation des pluies en débits, on<br />
transforme la pluie décennale en crue décennale en veillant bien à ce<br />
que la distribution des intensités de l'averse, l'index représentant<br />
l'humidité préalable, le mois de l'année lorsque celui-ci intervient,<br />
correspondent aux conditions les plus fréquentes pour les fortes préci-<br />
pitations. Sur le plan statistique, ceci est très contestable : la
607<br />
v8ritable solution consisterait 5 appliquer le modèle de transformation<br />
pluie/débit à la totalité des averses observées au poste de référence,<br />
sur 40 ans par exemple, et à étudier la distribution statistique de<br />
l'échantillon de crues reconstituées sur 40 ans. Mais cette méthode<br />
serait peu réaliste pour beaucoup de pays en voie de développement<br />
parce qu'il est beaucoup plus difficile de mettre au point un modèle<br />
valable pour toutes les averses qu'un modèle uniquement valable pour<br />
les fortes averses et parce qu'ensuite la reconstitution des crues de<br />
petits bassins pour 40 ans ne peut se faire qu'avec l'ordinateur.<br />
La transformation pluie/débit se fait en deux temps :<br />
lo - calcul du volume de crue par la détermination du facteur KR (voir<br />
1 .I .4.) ;<br />
2* - à partir de ce volume, détermination du débit de pointe par la forme<br />
de l'hydrogramme (voir 1 .1 .5.).<br />
Autant que possible, on a cherché à ramener ce calcul à des<br />
opérations très simples dans un certain nombre de pays où le nombre de<br />
bassins représentatifs était suffisant.<br />
1.2.2.Pratique du calcul pour l'Afrique Occidentale :<br />
Le5 études systématiques visées en 1.1.1. et 1.1.3. fournis-<br />
sent des éléments pluviométriques permettant de déterminer l'averse de<br />
fréquence cherchée avec son diagramme de distribution temporelle, pour<br />
la majeure partie de l'Afrique Occidentale. Des études beaucoup plus<br />
partielles effectuées dans d'autres r6gions du monde ont fourni les me-<br />
mes données.<br />
On réduit ces valeurs ponctuelles à des valeurs moyennes sur<br />
une surface donnée en les multipliant par un facteur qui décroît de 1<br />
pour une svface S inférieure à 25 km2, à 0,8 pour une surface comprise<br />
entre 150 et 200 km2. Ces chiffres qui ne sont valables que pour les<br />
orages convectifs des régions tropicales africaines, sont peut-$tre un<br />
peu forts. Ils seront probablement diminués à la suite de recherches en<br />
cours.<br />
On dispose donc de la hauteur de précipitation P,.<br />
Pour déterminer la valeur de Ks, on a établi des séries d'aba-<br />
ques pour deux types de couvertures végetales naturelles (liées au cli-<br />
mat), savane et savane boisée d'une part, steppe et savane à épineux<br />
d'autre part. I1 n'a pas encore été possible d'établir d'abaques conve-<br />
nables pour la forat tropicale.
608<br />
Les autres facteurs pris en considération pour la détermina-<br />
tion de KH sont : la superficie du bassin, la perméabilité globale<br />
du sol P et la pente R. A défaut d'index quantitatif pour R et surtout<br />
P, on a établi deux classifications : R correspond à des plaines très<br />
plates, RG à des pentes de montagne (pentes longitudinales supbrieures<br />
à 5 $, pentes transversales supérieures à 20 $)o<br />
Pl correspond à un sol rigoureusement imperméable, P5 à un<br />
sol très perméable (sable ou carapace latéritique très disloquée. Le<br />
graphique 1 d m e un exemple de ces abaques pour des sols imperméables<br />
(Pl - P2) et des pentes variables de R2 à R4. Ces abaques ont été &ta-<br />
blies & partir des données des bassins représentatifs. Les valeurs de<br />
KR correspondent des pluies de fréquence décennale (Pm vaciant de<br />
&o à IO5 mm) dans ces régions, tombant dans des conditions d'humidité<br />
du milieu de la saison des pluies.<br />
Bien entendu, au cas OU des facteurs secondaires tels que le<br />
réseau hydrographique, présenteraient des caractéristiques anormales,<br />
par exemple lit marécageux, on devrait rectifier les valeurs de KR en<br />
conséquence.<br />
Le volume de ruissellement de la crue :<br />
A ce volume il convient d'ajouter le volume correspondant au<br />
d6bit de base do1.t on peut avoir une idée sur le terrain, sans &tude<br />
hydroiagique très difficile.<br />
Pour la forme de l'hydrogramme,des abaques ont été également<br />
mis au point;. On en trouvera un exemple au graphique 2 qui donne le<br />
temps de base ou duróe du ruissellement en fonction de la surface du bas<br />
sin et de l'index de pente pour les m8mes conditions de végétation que<br />
le graphique no 1.<br />
La connaissance du temps de base TB permet de calculer le débit<br />
moyen de ruissellement :<br />
M<br />
'ruis<br />
e<br />
s eli emen t<br />
TB<br />
M est obtenu en m 3 /s.<br />
K (K P F)<br />
Pour trouver le débit de pointe s, on utilise un coefficient<br />
étudibi pour les mêmes rbgions sur bassins représentatifs.
609<br />
Pour la couverture végtitaïe steppe ou savane à épineux avec<br />
des valeurs de KR pas trop &levées, on trouve des valeurs de K variant<br />
entre 2,5 pour 25 km2 à 3,t pour 100 kmz. Si ces valeurs de KR sont<br />
supérieures à 50 - 60 $ K varie entre 3 pour 2 km2 et 4,5 pour 50 km2.<br />
de base.<br />
On obtient QM en multipliant $1 par K et on ajoute le débit<br />
Bien entendu, si le diagramme de répartition temporelle des<br />
intensités et si la superficie du bassin sont tels que la crue n'est pas<br />
unitaire, il existe des abaques complémentaires donnant le temps de base.<br />
Dans ce qui précède, c'est volontairement que nous n'avons pas<br />
Gtabli de formules pour repr6senter les courbes des graphiques 1 et 2<br />
auxquelles nous voulons garder un caractère provisoire.<br />
l.Z.3.Limitations de la méthode :<br />
Elle ne s'applique bien en Afrique tropicale que pour des su-<br />
perficies inférieures & 50 - 100 km2.<br />
Comme nous venons de le dire, nos courbes sont provisoires et<br />
on met ali point des modèles plus &labor& pour revoir les bases de nos<br />
abaques quL nécessitent encore un sérieux effort d'homogénéisation des<br />
données et des proc6dés de calculs.<br />
Les problèmes de forêt tropicale exigent encore un effort im-<br />
portant de recherches sur le terrairi.<br />
%fin, il n'est pas très facile de classifier un bassin en caté-<br />
gorie P2 ou P . Des recherches de physique du sol sont en cours pour arri-<br />
ver ?i des règ3es simples permettant de le faire. C'est certainement 1&<br />
le point le plus difficile.<br />
Pour définir quantitativement des index R une bonne combinai-<br />
son des facteurs géomorphologiques courants doit donner satisfaction.<br />
Actuellement, cette méthode est très souvent employée en Afrique,<br />
mais, dans bien des cas delicats, il serait plus prudent que les bassins<br />
soient examinés auparavant par un hydrologue confirmé. Elle présente l'im-<br />
mense avantage d'éviter toute véritable étude hydrologique sur le terrain.<br />
1.3. Crue de période de retour supérieure à 20 ans.<br />
C'est là un problème très difficile car la documentation plu-<br />
viométrique est tout à fait insuffisante. Pour des périodes de retour<br />
de l'ordre de 100 ans, une minutieuse étude critique des relevés de nom-<br />
breux postes pluviométriques permet d'aboutir à un ordre de grandeur.
61 O<br />
En Afrique tropicale, les averses journalières centenaires<br />
de caractère convectif sont peut-8tre de l'ordre de 200 ?i 3-400 mm en<br />
24 heures, suivant les régions.<br />
I1 reste ensuite à choisir une valeur de KR qui n'est plus<br />
celle des abaques mais qui doit en tenir compte, car tous les bassins<br />
pour de telles averses ne parviennent pas à la limite de O,&5 - O,9O.<br />
Enfin, généralement, l'averse dure au moins 5 ou 6 heures et parfois<br />
20 heures, elle n'est donc plus unitaire. On utilise donc les abaques<br />
tels que ceux du graphique 2 pour établir les différents hydrogrammes<br />
élehentaires qu'on ajoute après avoir découpé l'averse centenaire.<br />
Enfin, s'il s'agit de la crue maximale probable, il ne reste<br />
plus qu'8 appliquer la formule de FIERSHFIELD OU l'on ajoute à la valeur<br />
moyenne de la précipitation journalière maximale annuelle 15 fois 1°é-<br />
cart-type de la distribution de cette précipitation maximale. Mais il<br />
faut d'abord partir d'une série de précipitations journalières de quali-<br />
té suffisante pour en déduire une valeur correcte de l'écart-type.<br />
D'autre part, si cette formule paraft excellente pour l'Afrique du Nord,<br />
les régions soumises à des cyclones tropicaux, elle semble conduire à<br />
des chiffres trop élevés pour les orages convectifs d'Afrique tropicale.<br />
Bans ce cas également on revient à l'application de la méthode de l'hydro-<br />
gramme unitaire pour des averses élémentaires successives, mais le choix<br />
de la distribution temporelle des intensités est délicat. Cequi arrive<br />
souvent clest que d'un bout à l'autre de l'estimation, on arrive à de<br />
telles cascadea de marges de sécurité qu'il est facile de fournir des<br />
chiffres trop élovés.<br />
2. Crues dues à des averses cycloniques :<br />
2.1. Crues décennales :<br />
L'averse décennale est plus difficile & définir que dans le<br />
cas précédent, la distribution statistique est plus difficile à étudier<br />
et les donnkes de base sont plus mauvaises (en cas de cyclone une bonne<br />
partie des pluviomètres débordent), mais dans beaucoup de pays du monde,<br />
on arrive 8 d6finir une valeur à peu près convenable de l'averse décen-<br />
nale, on doit alors découper l'averse en averses élémentaires comme au<br />
point 1.3. et on transforme ces averses en crues par la méthode des hy-<br />
drogrammes unitaires. Très souvent, pour les dernières averses élémen-<br />
taires rC, est voisin de 0,9O si la pente est notable, que la couverture<br />
soit forestière ou non. Après calcul, il est bon de comparer le résultat<br />
aux crues maximales connues dans le monde en utilisant des diagrammes<br />
tels que le diagramme FWCOU-RODIER.
2.2. Crue maximale probable.<br />
Dans ce cas, on ne peut donner que des indications gén6rales.<br />
Pour l'averse à prendre en considération, on pourra se référer, dans<br />
les pays à fortes averses, aux valeurs maximales mondiales telles qu'el-<br />
les sont données dans le Guide des Pratiques Hydrométéorologiques de<br />
l'OMM ou aux résultats de la formule de HERSHFIELD, mais il sera encore<br />
plus difficile que plus haut d'aboutir à une valeur convenable de l'écart-<br />
type, ceci nécessitera une sérieuse étude critique des rares données<br />
pluviométriques disponibles, en tenant compte du débordement 8ventuel<br />
des pluviomètres. Le reste est plus facile car le coefficient de ruis-<br />
sellement KR est de l'ordre de 0,gO.<br />
Si la région est COMUB pour avoir des averses exceptionnelle-<br />
ment fortes, il est normal de prendre en considération des valeurs de<br />
précipitations supérieures aux maximums mondiaux connus car, en pays de<br />
cyclones tropicaux, la connaissance des averses de durée inférieure à<br />
48 heures est très incomplète et les maximums mondiaux connus doivent<br />
&tre considér6s comme piut8t provisoires.<br />
ïb générai, dans les cas graves concernant les cyclones tropi-<br />
caux, l'hydrologue arrive a la conclusion un peu décevante qu'il serait<br />
prbférable que l'ingénieur prévoie son barrage de telle façon qu'il puis-<br />
se être submergé par n'importe quelle crue.<br />
Qua1 que soit le cas étuùié, un examen du terrain orienté vers<br />
la recherche L;ss traces laissées par de fortes crues est n&cessaire.<br />
611<br />
I1 résulte de tout ce qui précède que les ñydrologues ont<br />
encore de nombreuses recherches à faire pour aider efficacement les<br />
constructeurs dans leur tâche.<br />
Quelques références utiles pour les petits bassins de ces régions :<br />
1. 0.M.E.i. (1965). Guide des Pratiques Hydromét&orologiques, no 168<br />
T.P. 82, Genève.<br />
2. RODIER J., AWRGY C. (1965). Estimation des débits de crues décen-<br />
nales pour les bassins versants de superficie inférieure à 200 km2<br />
en Afrique Occidentale, ORSTOM, Paris.<br />
3. HERSHFIXLD D.M. (1963). Estimating the probable maximum precipita-<br />
tion. Am. Soc. <strong>of</strong> Civil hhgineers Transactions, Vol. 128, Part I,<br />
PP. 534-556.
61 2<br />
4. FRANCOU J., RODBR JO (1967), Essai de classification des crues<br />
maximales observées dans le monde. Cahiers d'Hydrologie OHSTOM<br />
vol. IV, ne 3, pp. 19-46. Paris.<br />
5. BENSON M.A., (1968), Measurement <strong>of</strong> Peak Discharge by Indirect<br />
Methods, OMM ne 225. TP. 11gP Genève.
613<br />
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I 2 3 4 5 6 7 IO 20 30 40 50 60 7080 loo 2c<br />
S en km2<br />
Fig: 2<br />
Temps d e base en fonction d e R et de S<br />
REGIMES SAHELIENS - SUBDESERTIQUES<br />
I
METHODS FOR THE ESTIMATION OF MAXIMUM DISCHARGES OF SNOW<br />
MELT AND RAINFALL WATER WITH INADEQUATE OBSERVATIONAL DATA<br />
ABS TRACT<br />
Pr<strong>of</strong>. A.A. Sokolov<br />
State Hydrological Institute<br />
Leningrad, USSR<br />
The problem <strong>of</strong> floods computation was accepted by the UNESCO<br />
Co-ordinating Council for the IHD as one <strong>of</strong> the most important<br />
problems. For its solution the Working Group on Floods and their<br />
ccmputation was established; it has realized several projects on<br />
the THD programme essential for future research on floods, deve-<br />
lopmen: and improvement <strong>of</strong> methods for floods computation. The pc<br />
per give;: an evaluation <strong>of</strong> the up-to-date state <strong>of</strong> this problem<br />
as means fLr its solution.<br />
RESUME<br />
Le Conseil de Coordination de l'UNESCO pour la DHI a estimé<br />
que le problème du calcul des crues était tres important. Pour<br />
l'examiner, il a créé un groupe de travail sur les crues et leur<br />
évaluation. Ce groupe a réalisé, dans le cadre du programme de la<br />
DHI, un certain nombre de travaux très importants pour l'avenir<br />
de la recherche sur les crues, pour la mise en oeuvre et l'amélig<br />
ration des méthodes de calcul qui le concernent. Dans la présente<br />
communication, l'auteur fait le point de la situation actuelle,<br />
ainsi que sur les moyens de parvenir la solution du probleme.
61 6<br />
At present triere are two uifferent approac,ies to t.ie complitatlon<br />
<strong>of</strong> fiood discilarge <strong>of</strong> ungauged rivers cievelopec to a certain<br />
dcbree quite independently. The first approach is based on the<br />
s~atistical analysis and generalization <strong>of</strong> field data on<br />
flood run<strong>of</strong>f; the second approach is based on the genetic<br />
analysis and synthesis <strong>of</strong> flood hy&ograph. As was: ctateu<br />
by J. Nemec and M. Moudry (Czechoslovakia) at; the Leningrad<br />
Symposium (1967) these two approaches ase gradually being<br />
brought together and at; present they are used simultaneously<br />
supplementing each other Lis,-/.<br />
Humerous design schemes have been proposed to estimate maximum<br />
flqod run<strong>of</strong>f <strong>of</strong> ungauged and poorly gauged rivers.<br />
According to the principles <strong>of</strong> approach and the scope <strong>of</strong><br />
flood computation these schemes may be divided into 2 main<br />
groups:<br />
3. Empirical or semi-empirical formulae for flood discharge<br />
computation based on the account <strong>of</strong> some <strong>of</strong> its most important<br />
factors ( e.g., drainage area or maximum precipitation rate),<br />
providing maximum water cìischarge o<strong>nl</strong>y.<br />
2. Methods considering flood genesis and providing the<br />
possibility <strong>of</strong> plotting the whole hydrograph on the basis <strong>of</strong><br />
time inflow <strong>of</strong> snow melt and rainfall water and its transformation<br />
into run<strong>of</strong>f as a result <strong>of</strong> losses by infiltration,<br />
suriace retention, lag along the slopes and channel network.<br />
At k-esent, methods <strong>of</strong> maximum flood discharge computation<br />
on the basis <strong>of</strong> the use <strong>of</strong> di€fereat design formulae are<br />
widel applied. The most important formulae are as follows:<br />
(a? formulae <strong>of</strong> extreme intensity, or the so-called<br />
rational formulae, basea on the account <strong>of</strong> maximum or extreme<br />
rainfall intensity during lag-time or flood flov concentration<br />
in its general form:<br />
Qmax =/Cpa,d,A. (1)<br />
where : gp is coefficient <strong>of</strong> dimensionality; ar is maximum<br />
intensity <strong>of</strong> rain or snow melt during lag time ( c ); dris<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f coe ficient during this time interval; A is drainage<br />
area in km 5 .<br />
Pormula (1) is usually applied for the computa-t;ion <strong>of</strong><br />
maximum run<strong>of</strong>f for relatively small basins (less than 200 km ).<br />
To determine design values <strong>of</strong>' dc curves <strong>of</strong> maximum precipitation<br />
increase %, are plotted <strong>with</strong> the increase <strong>of</strong> time<br />
interval Z' ? given as percentage <strong>of</strong> daily precipitation <strong>of</strong> the<br />
same probability <strong>of</strong> exceedence ( p )<br />
The maximum mean precipitation rate Jcp for any time<br />
interval is estimated by formula:
617<br />
Mean velocity and lag-time down the channel and slope6<br />
are computed by simplified formulae <strong>of</strong> Chezy-Manning or<br />
C he zy -Baz in.<br />
The principal disadvantage <strong>of</strong> formula (1) consists in some<br />
uncertainw and inaccuracy <strong>of</strong> the determination <strong>of</strong> lag time<br />
c-<br />
or flood concentration c, is interpreted by iiiJividiia1<br />
scientists in different ways, therefore it causes iii-<br />
accuracy <strong>of</strong> determination <strong>of</strong> principal parameters az and d,-<br />
appearing in formula (1). Besides, formulae <strong>of</strong> type (1) do not<br />
take into account the remaining flood elements (duration rise<br />
and fall duration ratio) and do not provide the plotting <strong>of</strong><br />
%he vihole ïlood hydrograph essential for the determination <strong>of</strong><br />
maxima transformation in ponds and reservoirs;<br />
(b) empirical or semi-empirical reduction formulae <strong>of</strong> the<br />
general type:<br />
is maximum specific discharge, m'/sec per 1 km';<br />
9. is parameter comprising the extreme specific discharge<br />
if A-O and C = 1.O;cis addition to the drainage area<br />
considering non-lineariky <strong>of</strong> dependence 4 ~mp,aj@@~<br />
<strong>with</strong>in the range <strong>of</strong> small areas <strong>of</strong> the basin; nis the<br />
eqonent <strong>of</strong> reduction <strong>of</strong> maximum specific discharge3 <strong>with</strong> %he<br />
incrsase <strong>of</strong> basin area and varying according to experimental<br />
and bheoretical data from n= 0.15 - 0.30 for run<strong>of</strong>f maxima <strong>of</strong><br />
snow mel? water or caused by prolonged frontal rainfalls, to<br />
n = 0.5 - 3.7 for maxima caused by short heavy local storms.<br />
Parameter +,,may be estimated according to the extreme rate <strong>of</strong>'<br />
snow melt or rainfalls for minimum time interval, e.g. 1 hour,<br />
or for snow melt water according to depth <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f during a<br />
flood.<br />
In the first case when C = 1.0 formula (4) may be presented<br />
as fo1lov;s:<br />
where: Q,,,~<br />
where: % is coefficient <strong>of</strong> dimensionality; % ds maximum<br />
hourly rato <strong>of</strong> snow melt or rainfall; d, is overland flow<br />
coefficient .<br />
Since does not exceed 10-15 m/hr for snow melt water<br />
and 300-400 mm/hr for rainfall water ( on the basis <strong>of</strong> computation<br />
<strong>of</strong> heat balance <strong>of</strong> snow melt), then the extreme value <strong>of</strong><br />
qe in fo mula (i+) if do= 1.0 and k$= 0.23, may not exceed<br />
2.8 -4.2 m 3 /sec pe 1 lun2 for snow melt water and up to 84-<br />
112 mj/sec per i bS for raidail water.<br />
On the basis <strong>of</strong> these elementary considerations it is possible<br />
to conclude %hat many empirical formulae <strong>of</strong> type (4) <strong>with</strong><br />
parameter 9. exceeding the mentioned limits have no physical<br />
substantiation.<br />
Due to some uncertainty <strong>of</strong> C value in formula (4) when<br />
A -0, this Lormula is sometimes used as follows:
61 8<br />
w ei'3: Cp.6 is parameter (maxim specific discharge in<br />
ì$/sec if &ainage area B=2ûû by:<br />
a is tiie exponent <strong>of</strong> reduction dcterrnined uy regional<br />
=fy/A/.<br />
dependences ep<br />
For practical computations on the basis <strong>of</strong> generalization<br />
<strong>of</strong> empirical data a map <strong>of</strong> regional boundaries is prepared<br />
<strong>with</strong> similar exponents <strong>of</strong> I2 .<br />
The advantage <strong>of</strong> formula (6) consists <strong>of</strong> the fact that the<br />
value <strong>of</strong> parameter c,, slightly depends on and<br />
therefore the mapping <strong>of</strong> cp,6<br />
possible e<br />
in the form <strong>of</strong> isolines is<br />
In case <strong>of</strong> eo determination according to the depth <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
<strong>of</strong> snow melt water during flood hrnformula (4) may be present-<br />
ed as follows:<br />
where: & is t,ie coe€ficient considering a number cif otlier factors,<br />
in particular, duration and siiape <strong>of</strong> flood.<br />
Formula (7) is used as the basis for the computation <strong>of</strong><br />
maxinum snow melt water äischarge for the whole USSII territory<br />
L4L<br />
Duriw recent years the reduct'on scheme is seldom used as<br />
simple regional dependences =*[JI plotted by dependences<br />
enveloping empirical points usually related to larger basin<br />
areas.<br />
In this case it is essential to take into account flood<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f probability <strong>of</strong> oxceedence Its parameters are<br />
differentiated according to climatic zones.<br />
Along <strong>with</strong> the basin area which was previously accepted as<br />
almost the o<strong>nl</strong>y maximum run<strong>of</strong>f factor, numerous important<br />
cli<strong>nl</strong>atic factors are also taken into account, i.e. depth and<br />
sate OP precipitation, snow melt rate, flood run<strong>of</strong>f depth;<br />
and morphological factors as well, i.e. basin topography, lakes<br />
and swamps areas, river network density, soils and subsoils<br />
composing the basin mantle, etc.<br />
7iith the increase <strong>of</strong> hydrological information and reliable<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f data from small basins the reduction scheme has greatly<br />
consolidated its positions since ibs basic parameters i.e.<br />
reduction coefficient anCr maximum run<strong>of</strong>f <strong>of</strong> elementary (small)<br />
basins have gainea a reliable substantiation. This particular0<br />
concerns maximum run<strong>of</strong>f <strong>of</strong> snow melt water;<br />
(c) the so-called volumetric formulae considering flood<br />
shape and duration, besides maximum ordinate <strong>of</strong> flood, may be<br />
given as follows:
61 9<br />
where: H is depth <strong>of</strong> precipitation or snow melt water;<br />
&is total or volumetric coefficient <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f during flood;<br />
Ttn ndicate general duration <strong>of</strong> flood or its rise phase;<br />
4 and$ , are coefficients <strong>of</strong> flood shape, i.e. ratio <strong>of</strong> maximum<br />
discharge to mean discharge.<br />
<strong>Design</strong> formulae as (8) or (9) are preferable compared <strong>with</strong><br />
formulae <strong>of</strong> type (1) or (4) since all flood elements are co-ordinated<br />
but they ara applied o<strong>nl</strong>y for simple one-peaked<br />
floods for which general or volumetric coefficient <strong>of</strong>' run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
is applicable.<br />
Despite the existing numerous formulae the computation <strong>of</strong><br />
rainfall flood run<strong>of</strong>f for ungauged rivers is not reliable.<br />
Every design scheme proposed is characterized by certain a6vantages<br />
and disadvantages. There exist no accepted design<br />
schemes until now.<br />
formulae is in the cornputation <strong>of</strong> individual flood elements<br />
<strong>with</strong>out their co-ordination and <strong>with</strong>out the account <strong>of</strong> genesis<br />
anrid type <strong>of</strong> flood; the latter is essential for hydraulic engineering<br />
projects to make a correct estimation <strong>of</strong> the flood transformation<br />
rate in ponds and reservoirs and the amount <strong>of</strong><br />
discharte through spillways. These disadvantages never occur<br />
in genetx computation methods for floods <strong>of</strong> the 2nd group<br />
based on the account <strong>of</strong> time variations <strong>of</strong> inflow <strong>of</strong> rain and<br />
snow melt waters and their transformation into run<strong>of</strong>f hydrograph<br />
as a result <strong>of</strong> non-simultaneous water lag from different basin<br />
areas.<br />
These methods are based on the plotting <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f transit<br />
curve showing the distribution <strong>of</strong> areas <strong>of</strong> simultaneous run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
over time intervals.<br />
The following methods may be mentioned for the computation<br />
<strong>of</strong> floods:<br />
(a) isochrone method based on the determination <strong>of</strong> ordinates<br />
<strong>of</strong> the curve <strong>of</strong> unit areas distribution (transit curve) by<br />
means <strong>of</strong> plotting the lines <strong>of</strong> equal transit (isochrones) on a<br />
topographic map o€ river basin;<br />
(b) unit hydrograph method, based on the determination <strong>of</strong><br />
transit curve by the ordinates <strong>of</strong> the observed unit flood<br />
hydro .raphs caused by individual storms;<br />
(cy method <strong>of</strong> mathematical floods simulation.<br />
The method <strong>of</strong> isochrones is mai<strong>nl</strong>y applicable for floods<br />
computation on small water courses <strong>with</strong> surface flow prevailing.<br />
&/<br />
A general disadvantage <strong>of</strong> the majority <strong>of</strong> empirical design<br />
Nhen the method <strong>of</strong> isochrones is applied it is essential to<br />
use topographic map <strong>of</strong> the basin <strong>of</strong> sufficiently large scale
620<br />
anu tile data on time variations <strong>of</strong> rain or snow melt water<br />
Inflow, moreover, for small water courses it is necessary to<br />
have data on such variations <strong>with</strong>in a day and this causes certain<br />
restrictions in the sphere <strong>of</strong> its application.<br />
Unit hydragraph method is based, as it was mentioned, on the<br />
plotting <strong>of</strong> curve <strong>of</strong> unit areas distribution according to the<br />
ordinates <strong>of</strong> unit floods observed.<br />
Unit hydrograph method is based on the lag theory expressed<br />
by the so-called genetic formula <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f:<br />
where: Qdt indicates discharges at the outlet at the moment t ;<br />
ht-r is effe tive precipitation per time unit Af at the<br />
moment k-r; #c indicates ordinates <strong>of</strong> the curve <strong>of</strong> unit<br />
areas distribution.<br />
Tne unit ,iydrograpli metiiod is cnaracterized by its visuality<br />
and.pa.ysica1 substantiation, it provides the plotting <strong>of</strong> design<br />
flood nyúrograpii according to preciFitation; tiiis resulted in its<br />
wide application in many countries <strong>of</strong> tile world despite some<br />
draNoacks.<br />
Its sppircasion is aiII1cuII; mai<strong>nl</strong>y ow- ‘GO m e inadequacy<br />
<strong>of</strong> the mekhods used for averaging the observed individual floods,<br />
separation cf multi-peaked floods and methods for infiltration<br />
rate and flow coefficient determination, There is also some<br />
uncertainty as to the applicabili- <strong>of</strong> the unit hydrograph method<br />
to different drainage areas; also problematic is the relationship<br />
between an individual storm duration and flood rise duration<br />
or the time <strong>of</strong> peak shifting relative to rainfall maximum during<br />
the flood.<br />
All these factors limit the application <strong>of</strong> the unit hydrograph<br />
method.<br />
Lately the method <strong>of</strong> mathematical floods simulation has been<br />
more and more widely used.<br />
For instance, in one <strong>of</strong> the variants <strong>of</strong> trie method <strong>of</strong> mathematical<br />
floods simulation applied in the USSR the analogy between<br />
equation (10 ), describing flood formation resulting from<br />
water lag and summation <strong>of</strong> individual discharges from different<br />
parts <strong>of</strong> river basin, and the eq,uation describing the change <strong>of</strong><br />
current in the electric circuit, was used,<br />
To apply this method practically, it is essential to develop<br />
investigations connected <strong>with</strong> determining parameters set for the<br />
specific electric analog computer to estimate flood run<strong>of</strong>f <strong>of</strong><br />
ungauged rivers.<br />
The importance <strong>of</strong> research, computation and prediction <strong>of</strong><br />
floods for many countries <strong>of</strong> the world necessitates the international<br />
scientific co-operation on the problem <strong>of</strong> flood flow<br />
computation.
621<br />
This co-operation is in particular exercised under the auspices<br />
<strong>of</strong> UNESCO and WMO <strong>with</strong>in the framework <strong>of</strong> the IIID programme.<br />
For this purpose the Co-ordinating Council €or the IHD<br />
established the Ciorking grou:, on floods and their compuation.<br />
This Working group has studied and generalized, to some extent,<br />
the international experience in the field <strong>of</strong> research and<br />
computation <strong>of</strong> flood flow.<br />
A great contribution was made by the International Symposium<br />
on floods and their computation held in Leningrad at the initiative<br />
<strong>of</strong> UNESCO and <strong>with</strong> the participation <strong>of</strong> \YMO and IAkIS.<br />
The proceedings <strong>of</strong> this Symposium were published, therefore<br />
there is no need to cite and consider them here /18, 26/.<br />
The review made by WMO on meteorological aspects in computing<br />
flood flow is rather useful. ‘ïiiic review made up a technical<br />
note on this problem /25/.<br />
The results <strong>of</strong> processing <strong>of</strong> observation data on floods made<br />
at the network <strong>of</strong> IHD stations also appear to be valuable. Taking<br />
into account that in some large areas covered by the network<br />
<strong>of</strong> IIID stations outstanding floods, may always occur. The<br />
UNESCO IHD Working group on floods and their computation prepared<br />
and published the technical note on collection and processing<br />
<strong>of</strong> data on floods /27/.<br />
The Working group also developed the programme for the<br />
World Catalogue <strong>of</strong> very large floods, according to which a<br />
riiimber <strong>of</strong> countries were entrusted to collect, process and<br />
publish the data on large floods.<br />
Besides, the Working group considered it necessary to study<br />
and generalize the international experience in the field <strong>of</strong><br />
floods covputation and is now preparing for publication the<br />
Technical Note (Casebook), wiiich would reflect a great experience<br />
in computation <strong>of</strong> flood flow, gained in many countries.<br />
These pub lications together <strong>with</strong> the Proceedings <strong>of</strong> the Lenin<br />
grad Symposium on floods will serve as a good basis to improve<br />
methods <strong>of</strong> flood flow computation, which in its turn will<br />
contribute to a more rational and economical selection <strong>of</strong><br />
parameters for hydraulic structures on rivers, their durability<br />
and resistance to floods.<br />
R E F E R E N C E S<br />
Alexeev G.A. (1 966). Sklema raschetov maximainyh dozhdevyh<br />
raskhodov vody PO formule predelnoy intensivnosti stoka,<br />
(Computation <strong>of</strong> maximum rainfall discharge by means <strong>of</strong><br />
the formula <strong>of</strong> extreme run<strong>of</strong>f intensity). Transactions<br />
<strong>of</strong> the GGI, vol. 134.<br />
Befani A.N. (1958) Osnovy teorii protsessov stoka i puti<br />
dalneishykh issledovaniy. (Theory <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f processes and<br />
directions <strong>of</strong> further research). Transactions <strong>of</strong> OGMI,<br />
vol. 15.
622<br />
3. Velikanov M.A. (1931) GidromekhanichesQ analiz poverhnostnobo<br />
stoka. (Hyaromechanical analysis <strong>of</strong> the surface run<strong>of</strong>f).<br />
Geophysics Nos. 1-2.<br />
4. Voskresenski K.E. (1956) Gidrologicheskie raschety pri proektirovmii<br />
sooruzheniy na malyh rekah, ruchjah i vremennyk<br />
vodotokakh (Method osn. i prakt) (Hydrological computations<br />
for structures on small rivers and temporary water<br />
courses), Leningrad, GIMIZ.<br />
5. Kalinin G.P., Milukov ?.I. (1958) Priblizhennyi raschet neust<br />
anovivshe go sy a dvi zhenia v o w h mass . (Approximate<br />
estimation <strong>of</strong> the unsteady water motion), Transactions <strong>of</strong><br />
TsW, vol. 66.<br />
6. Kovzel A.G. (1951) Opyt projektirovania hydrografa vesennego<br />
stoka dlya malogo vodosbora. (The designing <strong>of</strong> the hydrograph<br />
<strong>of</strong> spring run<strong>of</strong>f on small watersheds) .Tr.<strong>of</strong> GGI,v.31(85)<br />
7. Kuzmin P.E. (1961) Protsess tayania snezhnogo pokrova.<br />
(Snow cover melting) Hydrometeorological Publishing House.<br />
8. Lvovich M.I. (L34-ö) Protsessy formirovania pavodkov.(Flood<br />
formation), Transactions <strong>of</strong> GGI, vol. 10.<br />
9. Moklyak V.I. (1965) Pormirovanie maximalnyh raskhodov ot<br />
talyh vod i ih raskhoày (Formation <strong>of</strong> maximum snowmelt<br />
discharges), Kiev.<br />
10. l'rotoãyakonov M.M. (1966). Opredelenie maksimalnogo stoka<br />
poverhnostnyh vod s malyh vodosborov. (Determination <strong>of</strong><br />
maximum surface run<strong>of</strong>f on small watersheds) Hydrometeos<br />
raological Publishing House Leningrad.<br />
11. Sokoiov A.A. (1963) Maximalnyi stok talyh vod elementarnyh<br />
bassainov i priroda ego reduktsii. (Maximum snowmelt<br />
run<strong>of</strong>i on elementary basins and the nature <strong>of</strong> its reduction).<br />
Transactions <strong>of</strong> GGI, vol. 107.<br />
12. Sokolov A.A. (1966) Metodika rascheta maximalnyh raskhodov<br />
talyh vod pri otsutstvii ili nedostatochnosti gidrometricheskikh<br />
dannykh (Computation <strong>of</strong> maximum discharges <strong>of</strong><br />
snowmelt water in case <strong>of</strong> the absence or inadequacy <strong>of</strong><br />
hydrometric data) Transactions <strong>of</strong> GGI, vol. 134.<br />
13. Sokolovsky D.L. (1937) Normy maximalnogo stoka vesennikh<br />
pavodkov rek SSSH i metodika ikh rascheta. (Norms <strong>of</strong><br />
maximum spring flood run<strong>of</strong>f <strong>of</strong> the USSR rivers and the<br />
technique <strong>of</strong> their computation). Hyarometeorological<br />
Publishing House.<br />
14. Sokolovse D.L. (1948) Metodika postroenia hydrografa liv-<br />
nevogo stoka PO osaäkam (Plotting <strong>of</strong> rainfall run<strong>of</strong>f hydro-<br />
graph on the basis <strong>of</strong> rainfall aata). Transactions <strong>of</strong><br />
GGI, vol. 14.<br />
15. Sokolovsky D.L., Shiklomanov I.A. (1965). Haschety hydrografov<br />
pavoàkov s primeneniem elektronnyh modeliruyshchih<br />
UStroiStV. (Computation <strong>of</strong> flood hydrographs by means <strong>of</strong><br />
electronic modelling devices). Transactions <strong>of</strong> LGMI,<br />
voi. 23.<br />
16. Sokolovslry D.L. (1968). Hechnoi stok, (River flovi). 3rd<br />
edition, Hydrometeorological Publishing House, Leningrad.
623<br />
17. Stroitelnye normy i pravila. (19661,Chast II, rasàel II,<br />
glava 7. Raschetnye maximalnye raskhody vody pri proektirovanii<br />
gidrotehnichesmh sooruzheniy. (Norms and<br />
instructions for civil engineering. Part II, section<br />
II, chapter 7. Maximum design discharges for hydrotechnical<br />
structures). Normy proektivania (CH i II<br />
II - 4. 7-65). MOSCOW.<br />
18. Mezhdynarodnyi simposium PO pavocikairi i ili raschetam.<br />
(1969). (International symposium on floods ana their<br />
computation) I and II, Leningrad, 15-22, August, 1967.<br />
Hyàrome teorological Publishing House, Leningrad.<br />
19. Ukasania po opredeleniu raschotnyh maximalnyh raskhodov<br />
talyh vod pri otsutstvii ili nedostatochnosti gidrometricheskih<br />
nabludeniy. (1966) (Instructions for<br />
the determination <strong>of</strong> maximum design snow melt discharce<br />
in case <strong>of</strong> the absence or inadequacy <strong>of</strong> hyarometric<br />
data). CH 356-66. Hydrometeorological Publishing<br />
House, Leningrad.<br />
20. Ukasania po opreaeleniu raschetnyh hydrologicheskih kharac-<br />
teristik, CH 435-72 (1972). (Instructions for the esti-<br />
mation <strong>of</strong> the hydrological design values CH 435-72).<br />
Hydrometeorological Publishing House, Leningrad.<br />
21. Ukasatel literatury PO pavodkam i ih raschetam (1967)<br />
(Bibliography on floods and their computation)<br />
Hydrometeorological YuDlishing House.<br />
22. Chegodaev N.N. (1953). Haschet poverhnostnogo stoka s<br />
mlyh vodosborov. (Estimation <strong>of</strong> surface run<strong>of</strong>f from<br />
su.311 watersheds). Tranzheldorizdat.<br />
23. Shiklomanov I.A. (1964). Kaschet transformatsii pavodkov<br />
vodokhranilishchami i prudami pri pomoshchi electron-<br />
nogo modeliruyushchego ustroistva (Computation <strong>of</strong><br />
flood transformation by ponds and reservoirs by means<br />
<strong>of</strong> electronic modelling devices). Transactions <strong>of</strong> LGMI,<br />
vol. 26.<br />
24. Alexeev G.A. ana Sokolov A.A. General principles and<br />
methods for the computation <strong>of</strong> flood discharges applied<br />
in the USAR. Atti del convegno internazionale (Roma,<br />
23-30 November 1969). Roma, ANDL! pp. 735-747.<br />
25. Estimation <strong>of</strong> maximum floods. Technical Note No. 98.<br />
LNO v No. 233, TP. 126, T;MO, Geneva (1969).<br />
26. Floods and their computation. Proceedings <strong>of</strong> the Leningrad<br />
Symposium. August, vol. 1 and 2. UNESCO/USH (1969).<br />
27. Flood studies: an international scuiae for collection ~ and ~~-..<br />
processing <strong>of</strong> data. Technica1"papers in hydrology No.8,<br />
UNUSCO. Paris (1971).<br />
28. Gray D-M. -Synthetic-Unit-Hydrographs for Small <strong>Water</strong>sheäs.<br />
Proc. Am. Soc. Civ. Eng., vol. 87.<br />
29. Linsley R.X., Kohler M.A. and Paulhus L.N. (1949). Applied<br />
<strong>Hydrology</strong> McGrow Hill Book Company N.Y.<br />
30. Morgan and Johnson (1962). Analysis <strong>of</strong> Unit-Graph Method.<br />
Journal or Hydraulic Division, 88, NY-5.<br />
31. Sherman L.R. (1932) Stream-Flow Rainfall by Unit- Graph<br />
Method ¡in . Mews Record.<br />
32. Snyder F.F. f1938) Synthetic Unit-Graphs. Trans. Am.<br />
Geophys. Union, vol. 19.
ABSTRACT<br />
COMPUTATION OF PROBABILISTIC VALUES<br />
OF LOW FLOW FOR UNGAUGED RIVERS<br />
Vladimirov A. M., Chebotarev A. I.<br />
State Hydrological Institute<br />
Leningrad, U.S.S.R.<br />
The main characteristics <strong>of</strong> low flow (minimum daily, mon-<br />
thly and seasonal flows) are investigated. The computation methods<br />
are Sased on a combined use <strong>of</strong> geographical interpolation and pro-<br />
bability analysis and considering the main factors affecting the<br />
volume aiid regime <strong>of</strong> low flow. Principal characteristics <strong>of</strong> low<br />
flow for mkdium-size rivers are determined by maps <strong>of</strong> flow isoli-<br />
nes, those for small rivers are determined by regional empirical<br />
correlation. <strong>Design</strong> flow is established by means <strong>of</strong> transition<br />
coefficients. The principal computation methods discussed are deve<br />
loped for U.S.S.R. rivers.<br />
Les auteurs analysent les caractéristiques principales des<br />
débits de basses eaux (journaliers? mensuels, minimum saisonnier).<br />
Les méthodes $e calcul font appel a la fois à l'interpolation géo-<br />
graphique et a l'analyse statistique, compte tenu des facteurs<br />
principaux qui influencent l'abondance et le régime des débits de<br />
basses eaux. Les principales caractéristiques des débits d'étiages<br />
des rivières moyennes font l'objet d'une représentation cartogra-<br />
phique; pour les petites rivières on les traduit par des relations<br />
empiriques régionales. Les débits correspondant à la fréquence<br />
choisie pour le projet sont établis en utilisant des coefficients<br />
de transfert. Les auteurs présentent les principales méthodes de<br />
calcul utilisées en URSS.
2 6<br />
Low flow is one <strong>of</strong> the principal phases <strong>of</strong> the hydrological river<br />
regime. During the dry periods, when precipitation is usually at its<br />
lowest, rivers have rather stable and relatively small discharges. Their<br />
variations in the flow hydrograph tend to approximate a horizontal line.<br />
The lowest flow observed during a certain period is generally called the<br />
minimum flow during that period.<br />
Separation <strong>of</strong> low-flow period in river flow hydrographs<br />
On rivers <strong>with</strong> distinctly expressed spring snowmelt floods and<br />
autumn floods the period <strong>of</strong> low flow is observed during winter and summerautumn<br />
seasons. Its beginning in summer is determined by the end <strong>of</strong><br />
spring high-water period, i.e. when the intensive rate <strong>of</strong> decrease <strong>of</strong><br />
discharge tends to become smaller. The summer period <strong>of</strong> low flow ends <strong>with</strong><br />
the arrival <strong>of</strong> the autumn floods or the appearance <strong>of</strong> ice in the river.<br />
In the latter case the low-flow period is called the summer-autumn period.<br />
The winter low-flow period begins at the appearance <strong>of</strong> ice events<br />
in the river and continues until spring high-water period begins. In<br />
case <strong>of</strong> no ice phenomena in the river the winter low-flow period is<br />
assumed to be a period from the average data <strong>of</strong> air temperature falling<br />
down contii:vously through O°C and below it up to the beginning <strong>of</strong> the<br />
spring high-wcter period.<br />
The low-flow period includes also floods if the volume <strong>of</strong> each<br />
<strong>of</strong> them does not exceed 10-15 per cent <strong>of</strong> the flow volume for preceding<br />
and subsequent lol.:-flow periods, <strong>with</strong>out taking into account the volumes<br />
<strong>of</strong> floods already included. If the flow hydrograph has the form <strong>of</strong> a<br />
saw-like curve (frequent floods <strong>of</strong> various magnitudes), the period <strong>of</strong><br />
low-flow includes floods <strong>with</strong> maximum discharges that are 3-5 times<br />
greater than preceding daily minimum discharges (depending on the<br />
volume <strong>of</strong> the flood peak).<br />
These criteria facilitate the plotting <strong>of</strong><br />
river low-flow periods, although they slightly overestimate the volume<br />
<strong>of</strong> low flow.<br />
In the U.S.S.R. low flow may be expressed as minimum daily,<br />
minimum monthly (30-day) or minimum seasonal flow.<br />
Seasonal flow is the average value <strong>of</strong> discharge (specific discharge)<br />
for winter or summer-autumn seasons. The minimum monthly flow<br />
is the average during the lowest calendar month in the given season.<br />
On rivers <strong>with</strong> flood regime during winter or summer-autumn seasons when<br />
the low-flow period is <strong>of</strong> less than two month duration or is interrupted<br />
by large floods, the smallest <strong>of</strong> the average discharges during a calendar<br />
month may appear 1,5-2 times bigger than the minimum discharge. In such
627<br />
a case it is necessary to introduce a temporary correction taking into<br />
account not a calendar month, but a 30-day period <strong>with</strong> the lowest flow.<br />
If frequent and considerable floods make it difficult to find out the<br />
30-day period <strong>of</strong> minimum flow, it may be reduced to 25-23 days in order<br />
to exclude the influence <strong>of</strong> floods.<br />
This secures the genetic homogeneity<br />
<strong>of</strong> the minimum flow <strong>of</strong> years <strong>with</strong> varying water volumes, which is impor-<br />
tant in the determination <strong>of</strong> minimum flows for ungauged rivers.<br />
Physiographic factors <strong>of</strong> low flow<br />
The duration and volume <strong>of</strong> low flow depend on physiographic<br />
factors which may be divided into two groups: (1) climatic conditions<br />
and (2) factors <strong>of</strong> underlying surface.<br />
lhe water resources <strong>of</strong> a certain basin depend on the climatic<br />
conditions prevailing in that basin. Precipitation contributes to the<br />
increase <strong>of</strong> ground water supply, while evaporation decreases its recharge<br />
and supply. In winter low-air temperatures cause a considerable freezing<br />
<strong>of</strong> soils and subsoils and contribute to the decrease <strong>of</strong> underground<br />
flow into rivers. Climatic factors determine areal low-flow distribution<br />
in accordance <strong>with</strong> the low <strong>of</strong> geographical zonation.<br />
1.i some cases and for small rivers particularly, low flow is<br />
greatly intluenced by local (azonal) factors <strong>of</strong> the underlying surface,<br />
i.e. the surface and underground flow contributions (lakes, swamps, soils<br />
and subsoils, karst, etc.).<br />
The influence <strong>of</strong> these factors may be so considerable and<br />
exceeds the influence <strong>of</strong> the climatic conditions.<br />
The most essential factor is the permeability <strong>of</strong> soils and subsoils.<br />
They serve as underground flow reservoirs, detaining water during<br />
high-water periods and releasing it during low-water periods. The<br />
capacity <strong>of</strong> underground storage is determined by the geological structure<br />
<strong>of</strong> the area and its hydrogeological conditions. Loose and porous or<br />
crevassed deposits (sandstone, limestone, shingle, and the like) create<br />
favourable Conditions for underground storage <strong>of</strong> water and far its subsequent<br />
release during the low-flow periods in rivers. Solid clay or<br />
monolithic crystal rocks (granite, gneiss) near the surface decrease the<br />
regulating capacity <strong>of</strong> the storage and reduce the low flow. The influence<br />
<strong>of</strong> karst-affected rocks on the regime and volume <strong>of</strong> low flow is determined<br />
by their absorption capacity und the rate <strong>of</strong> water yield - the bigger<br />
it is, the less is their influence an the low flow.
628<br />
The contribution <strong>of</strong> underground water reservoirs to the flow in<br />
rivers is a factor <strong>of</strong> extreme importance in the study <strong>of</strong> low flows. In<br />
this respect due consideration should be given to the number water con-<br />
tent and regime <strong>of</strong> aquifers contributions to river flow and the dynamics<br />
<strong>of</strong> underground flow into rivers. These factors determine the contribu-<br />
tion <strong>of</strong> underground aquifers to the flow in rivers.<br />
The study <strong>of</strong> factors affecting the volume and regime <strong>of</strong> low flow<br />
is a necessary prerequisite for the successful development <strong>of</strong> the com-<br />
putation methods.<br />
The analysis <strong>of</strong> the influence <strong>of</strong> main factors on conditions <strong>of</strong><br />
low flow formation necessitates the division <strong>of</strong> rivers into small and<br />
middle-size rivers when developing computation methods since the process<br />
<strong>of</strong> low flow formation is different for the two types <strong>of</strong> rivers. Large<br />
rivers are not considered here.<br />
Differentiation <strong>of</strong> small and middle-size rivers<br />
The quantitative characteristics <strong>of</strong> a small river may be assumed<br />
to be the value indicating the extent <strong>of</strong> aquifers discharge contribution<br />
to total flow, i.e. the erosion depth <strong>of</strong> river channels. The determination<br />
<strong>of</strong> its îharacteristic is the ratio between the erosion channel depth<br />
and the aquifeis depth feeding the river along its length up to the outlet.<br />
Th.e quantitative estimation <strong>of</strong> the influence <strong>of</strong> main hydrogeological factors<br />
on low flow is difficult to make, while developing low flow computation<br />
methods involve additional characteristics: correlations between<br />
the capacity <strong>of</strong> underground storage and drainage densities. In similar<br />
regions there is a definite relationship between the volume <strong>of</strong> underground<br />
storage, river channel erosion depths, watershed boundaries and<br />
drainage areas.<br />
Therefore the value <strong>of</strong> river basin area provides an<br />
integrated indicator <strong>of</strong> morphological and hydrological conditions <strong>of</strong> low<br />
flow.<br />
In this case, a criterion for the term "small river" may be the<br />
largest (critical) area <strong>of</strong> the basin responsible for the complete drainage<br />
<strong>of</strong> aquifers feeding the river and <strong>with</strong> the e<strong>nl</strong>argement <strong>of</strong> which no varia-<br />
tion <strong>of</strong> low flow modulus is observed. The value <strong>of</strong> the critical area is<br />
established by graphs <strong>of</strong> relationship <strong>of</strong> minimum 30-day flow modulus <strong>with</strong><br />
river basin area for the physiographically similar regions.<br />
For the U.S.S.R. rivers, the critical area <strong>of</strong> the basin ranges<br />
from 1, O00 to 1,500 km2 in flat wet regions and in all mountain regions.<br />
In semi humid zones it rises to 2, 000-2, 500 km2 due to the lower depths<br />
<strong>of</strong> uquifers drained by rivers. In semi arid areas rivers <strong>with</strong> 5,,000-<br />
10, O00 km2 basin area are classified as small rivers.
Computation <strong>of</strong> normal low flow <strong>of</strong> small rivers<br />
In the U.S.S.R. computation practice for determining mean low<br />
flow <strong>of</strong> small ungauged rivers, the following equation relating the dis-<br />
charge to the river basin area is most widely used:<br />
where Q is discharge (seasonal minimum) in m3/sec; A is river basin<br />
area in km2; f is either a regional impermeable mean area or a<br />
permeable contributing area outside the drainage basin. In the first<br />
case, the parameter f has the sign minus (-), in the second case it has<br />
the sign plus (+). Under usual conditions and permanent flow available<br />
f = O. a, n are regional parameters characterizing conditions <strong>of</strong> low<br />
flow formation.<br />
629<br />
The determination <strong>of</strong> the parameters <strong>of</strong> design equation (1) is made<br />
for the regions selected on the base <strong>of</strong> a careful study <strong>of</strong> hydrogeological<br />
conditions <strong>of</strong> the basins under study and on the analysis <strong>of</strong> principal<br />
physiographic conditions. For instance, while dividing the territory <strong>of</strong><br />
the U.S.S.R. into regions the following were used:<br />
water beating formations by rivers, hydrological descriptions <strong>of</strong> conditions<br />
favouiing the formation <strong>of</strong> underground flows <strong>of</strong> regions, ground flow<br />
map <strong>of</strong> the intcnsive water exchange zone, map <strong>of</strong> underground flow in percentage<br />
<strong>of</strong> the total river flow and coefficients <strong>of</strong> underground flow in<br />
percentage <strong>of</strong> precipitation.<br />
precipitation for warm and cold seasons, data on evaporation, air temperature<br />
for the winter season in ice melt regions, topographic map <strong>of</strong> the<br />
U.S.S.R., hydrological regionalization <strong>of</strong> the U.S.S.R., map <strong>of</strong> physiogra-<br />
phic regionalization <strong>of</strong> the U.S.S.R.<br />
account as much as possible all the characteristic features under which<br />
low flow <strong>of</strong> selected regions is formed. The boundaries <strong>of</strong> regions <strong>with</strong><br />
similar low-flow conditions during winter and summer-autumn, were plotted<br />
along the boundaries <strong>of</strong> sharp change <strong>of</strong> hyd2logical conditions. For<br />
instance, when in some river basins the change <strong>of</strong> hydrogeological and<br />
other conditions take place, the change in the volume <strong>of</strong> river flow will<br />
not be observed immediately, but gradually while the most notable change<br />
will take place at the confluence <strong>of</strong> two rivers.<br />
map <strong>of</strong> drainage <strong>of</strong><br />
Also used are maps <strong>of</strong> annual river flow,<br />
All these allowed to take into<br />
In this case the<br />
region boundary follows the watershed divide between these river catchments<br />
across the point <strong>of</strong> their confluence.<br />
Formula (1) may be used for the computation <strong>of</strong> flow <strong>of</strong> flat and<br />
semi-mountainous rivers <strong>with</strong> the average accuracy <strong>of</strong> 152% (for 1 500<br />
points on the U.S.S.R. rivers the deviation <strong>of</strong> computed minimum mean<br />
long-term 30-day discharge was 17-2w <strong>of</strong> the actual flow for the summer-<br />
autumn season, and for 750 points in winter it was 15%). Taking into
630<br />
account the accuracy <strong>of</strong> determining the actual data, use <strong>of</strong> formula (1)<br />
may be recommended for the computation <strong>of</strong> low flows <strong>of</strong> rivers <strong>of</strong> basin<br />
areas not less than 20 km2 for humid zones not less than 50 km2 for<br />
semi-arid zones, where the low flow volume is rather small and the in-<br />
fluence <strong>of</strong> various local factors is most evident.<br />
In regions <strong>with</strong> very<br />
complicated conditions <strong>of</strong> low-flow formation the area should be not less<br />
that 100 km2.<br />
A wide use <strong>of</strong> formula (i) in the designing practice (5, 6) paoved<br />
it reliable.<br />
In high mountain areas the altitude <strong>of</strong> the catchment may be <strong>of</strong><br />
a great significance as the factor reflecting the influence <strong>of</strong> vertical<br />
zonation upon the conditions <strong>of</strong> low flow formation. Therefore, the low<br />
flow modulus for regions similar in hydrogeology etc., is related to<br />
mean basin altitude.<br />
Determination <strong>of</strong> low flow for middle-size rivers<br />
The low flow volume <strong>of</strong> middle-size rivers, i.e. those <strong>with</strong> area<br />
larger than the above stated critical area, but not more than 75 O00 km2,<br />
is formea under principal influence <strong>of</strong> zonal factors. The flow modulus <strong>of</strong><br />
these rivers varies smoothly and in accordance <strong>with</strong> geographical zonation<br />
(1-atitudinal or vertical) over the area. Therefore, low flow <strong>of</strong> middlesize<br />
rivers can be determined by maps <strong>of</strong> flow isolines, made for a certain<br />
characteristic <strong>of</strong> low flow. The flow modulus relates to the catchment<br />
centre, the interval between isolines is given in accordance <strong>with</strong> the map<br />
scale and the value <strong>of</strong> flow variation over the area. In mountain regions<br />
the average catchment altitude is taken into account; flow isolines may<br />
not be closed, but end on the side <strong>of</strong> the mountain ridge <strong>with</strong>out passing<br />
over to the other side (due to a great difference in wetness <strong>of</strong> slopes).<br />
Maps are plotted both for the mean and for flows <strong>of</strong> various frequencies.<br />
For instance, for the U.S.C.R. territory there are plotted maps <strong>of</strong> the mean<br />
and S-frequency <strong>of</strong> minimum. 30-day winter and summer-autumn flows,<br />
which allows to determine the flow <strong>with</strong> the average accuracy <strong>of</strong> 10-20$.<br />
Computation <strong>of</strong> low flow <strong>of</strong> different frequencies<br />
For designing purposes the characteristics <strong>of</strong> low flows <strong>of</strong> different<br />
frequencies are <strong>of</strong> the highest importance. In the U.S.S.R. design<br />
flow <strong>of</strong> 75-97$ frequency is mai<strong>nl</strong>y used. Necessary values may be determined<br />
<strong>with</strong> the help <strong>of</strong> three parameters: mean flow La), coefficient<br />
variation <strong>of</strong> !Cv ' and skewness coefficient (CS).
631<br />
The second way is by the use <strong>of</strong> a transition coefficient from one<br />
fixed frequency (e.g. 75 or 8%) to another. This method has been lately<br />
more and more widely used in the U.S.S.R., especially in its application<br />
to low flow, since it is more accurate and simple than the method <strong>of</strong> three<br />
parameters, and since available hydrometric data allow to generalize for<br />
almost the whole territory <strong>of</strong> the U.S.S.R.<br />
The advantage <strong>of</strong> the transition coefficients method is proved<br />
by the mere fact thót in this case the total mean square root error will<br />
consist <strong>of</strong> the error <strong>of</strong> the flow <strong>of</strong> fixed frequency (u 1 and the error<br />
'P<br />
<strong>of</strong> transition coefficient A , i.e.<br />
terms:<br />
i.e.<br />
When using three parameters, the same error will consist <strong>of</strong> three<br />
standard error (Qn), error <strong>of</strong> Cv (c($ and error <strong>of</strong> Cs (, Cc,),<br />
Tt is evident that the error in the second instance will be<br />
greater, and if we take into account unreliable methods for determining<br />
coefficients C,, and Cs for any rivers, then the advantages <strong>of</strong> the method<br />
<strong>of</strong> transition coefficients become quite obvious. It is the more so,<br />
as in the range <strong>of</strong> frequencies under consideration (7597%) the curves <strong>of</strong><br />
low-flow frequencies are rather stable, gently sloping and quite reliable<br />
in most cases.<br />
This stipulates a rather small (for the given frequency)<br />
variability <strong>of</strong> transition coefficient for the area and season and, con-<br />
sequently, its high reliability. Thus, for the U.S.S.R. rivers the value<br />
<strong>of</strong> transition coefficient from the minimum 30-day discharge <strong>of</strong> 8% fre-<br />
quency to the discharge <strong>of</strong> 75% frequency varies from 1.03-1.06, and for<br />
transition to the discharge <strong>of</strong> 9056 frequency - from 0.83-0.91, i.e. the<br />
value <strong>of</strong> coefficient xchanges o<strong>nl</strong>y by 5-1056 and may be averaged for the<br />
given frequency over a large area. Its value varies significantly o<strong>nl</strong>y<br />
for episodically drying or freezing rivers.<br />
The flow <strong>of</strong> fixed frequency is established by formula (1) or by<br />
maps <strong>of</strong> flow isolines, plotted for this frequency. Thus, for the U.S.S.R.<br />
territory there are plotted maps <strong>of</strong> the minimum 30-day flow <strong>of</strong> 8056 frequency<br />
(for winter and summer-autumn periods separately) and the maps <strong>of</strong><br />
flow <strong>of</strong> limiting season <strong>of</strong> 75% frequency.<br />
Also determined are the<br />
parameters in formula (i) for the 30-day discharge <strong>of</strong> 8w and 7546 fre-<br />
quency.
63 2<br />
To determine flow <strong>of</strong> other frequencies, a table <strong>of</strong> transition<br />
coefficients ;I has been prepared.<br />
Computation <strong>of</strong> minimum daily flow is made by relationship <strong>with</strong> the<br />
value <strong>of</strong> minimum 30-day flow (normal or fixed frequency flow for selected<br />
regions) :<br />
Q = K , Q<br />
P p,30<br />
where Op is minimum daily discharge <strong>of</strong> design frequency. Qp30 is minimum<br />
30-day discharge <strong>of</strong> corresponding frequency, determined by maps <strong>of</strong> isolines<br />
or by formula (1). k is the regional transition coefficients for the<br />
given season.<br />
For the U.S.S.R. territory the value <strong>of</strong> coefficient k, when<br />
determining the minimum daily discharge <strong>of</strong> 8C$ frequency, varies from<br />
0.59 to 0.90 in winter and from 0.45 to 0.86 in summer-autumn seasons.<br />
Its value depends on the degree <strong>of</strong> river flow depletion for the period<br />
under study and on the volume <strong>of</strong> run<strong>of</strong>f during low-flow periods.<br />
Determination <strong>of</strong> minimum daily flow <strong>of</strong> design frequency is made<br />
by using ti:s above-mentioned coefficients A , since the frequency curve<br />
<strong>of</strong> daily and 30-day discharges vary practically in the same manner.<br />
The stated methods for the computation <strong>of</strong> probability values<br />
<strong>of</strong> river low flow are given in Gosstroy Standards <strong>of</strong> the U.S.S.R.<br />
/5,6/ and are widely used by designing organizations <strong>of</strong> the Soviet<br />
Union.
REFERENCES<br />
1. Vladimirov, A. M.: Minimalny stok rek SSSR (Minimum flow<br />
<strong>of</strong> the U.S.S.R. rivers) Hydrometeorological Publishing<br />
House, Leningrad, 1970, p. 214.<br />
2. Vladimirov, A. M.: Raschetnye minimalnye raskhody vody<br />
(<strong>Design</strong> minimum discharges) Trans. <strong>of</strong> GGI, v. 188,<br />
Hydrometeorological Publishing House, Leningrad,<br />
1972, p. 244-272.<br />
3. Kudelin, B. I. (ed.): Podzemny stok na territorii SSSR<br />
(Underground flow in the U.S.S.R. territory), MGU<br />
Publishing House, 1966, p. 303.<br />
4. Popov, O. V.: Podzemnoe pitanie rek (Underground river<br />
recharge) Hydrometeorological Publishing House,<br />
Leningrad, 1968, p. 291.<br />
5.<br />
6.<br />
633<br />
Ukazania PO opredelenia raschetnykh minimalnykh raskhodov<br />
vody rek pri stroitelnom prooktirovanii (Instructions<br />
for determination <strong>of</strong> design minimum discharges <strong>of</strong><br />
rivers in engineering projects). CH 346-66, Hydrometeoxdogical<br />
Publishing House, Leningrad, 1966, p. 17.<br />
Ukazania PO opredeleniu raschetnykh gidrologicheskikh<br />
’ kharakteristik (Instructions for determination <strong>of</strong><br />
design hydrological characteristics), CH 435-72.<br />
Hydrometeorological Publishing House, Leningrad, 1972,<br />
p. 18.
ABSTRACT<br />
A STUDY ON MAXIMUM FLOOD DISCHARGE FORMULAS<br />
Tae Sang Won, PhD.CE., Dr. En.${<br />
This paper describes a new formula for the calculation <strong>of</strong><br />
approaching velocity <strong>of</strong> rain water, and a number <strong>of</strong> new formulas<br />
for the estimation <strong>of</strong> maximum flood discharge which have been deve-<br />
loped by the author.<br />
Many empirical formulas, which have limited application,<br />
exist. However, in devising his formulas, the author derived theo-<br />
retically the form <strong>of</strong> the basic maximum discharge formula for the<br />
case <strong>of</strong> rivers <strong>with</strong> no tributaries, and determined stochastically<br />
the value <strong>of</strong> the coefficients in his basic formulas using the re-<br />
cords <strong>of</strong> observed measurements. Then the author derived theoretic2<br />
lly many differe,it formulas for the case <strong>of</strong> rivers <strong>with</strong> tributa-<br />
ries to fit in the actual localities <strong>of</strong> the site under considera-<br />
tion, besides the basic formulas. So the author's formulas would<br />
be widely applicable for rivers or sewer nets, and also for any<br />
regions, countries, <strong>with</strong> different locality. The author could con<br />
firm these facts through the numerical examples. The author's fo:<br />
mulas may be used not o<strong>nl</strong>y for estimating the design flood, but<br />
also in flood routing. The author believes that his formulas would<br />
be very helpful in the planning <strong>of</strong> water resources development pro<br />
jects -specially for those <strong>with</strong> inadequate data.<br />
RESUME<br />
L'auteur présente une nouvelle formule pour la vitesse de con<br />
centration d'un bassin et en suggere d'autres pour le calcul du dg bit de la crue maximale.<br />
On trouve de nombreuses formules empiriques dans de nombreux<br />
manuels, mais ces formules sont d'une application limitée. L'auteur<br />
parvient cependant à asseoir la forme de sa formule sur des bases<br />
théoriques, lorsqu'il s'agit de cours d'eau sans affluents; il pro<br />
cede à l'évaluation des paramètres qu'elle contient par ajustement<br />
statistique aux données d'observation disponibles. I1 generalise<br />
ensuite à différents cas de cours d'eau avec affluents. Les formu-<br />
les proposées de'vraient pouvoir être appliquées n'importe où,<br />
aussi bien pour les cours d'eau naturels que pour les réseaux<br />
d'assainissement; c'es ce que l'auteur peut confirmer par des<br />
applications numériques. Les formules peuv:nt servir non seulement<br />
au calcul des crues de projet, mais aussi a celui de la propagation<br />
des crues. L'auteur pense que ses formules devraient rendre de<br />
grands services dans la planification de l'aménagement des eaux,<br />
spécialement lorsque les données disponibles sont insuffisantes.<br />
fg Pr<strong>of</strong>essor <strong>of</strong> Civil Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul,<br />
Korea.<br />
1
636<br />
I e XNTR001';TION<br />
a<br />
Charles F. Ruff defin& Bmximm probable floodn as follows.<br />
"The maximum probable flood does not mean the largest flood possible<br />
but a flood so large that the chance <strong>of</strong> its being exceeded is no<br />
greater than the hazards normal to all <strong>of</strong> man's activities." The<br />
author will use here the term <strong>of</strong> 'maximum flood discharge" <strong>with</strong> the<br />
same meaning <strong>of</strong> "maximum probable flood" as defined by Ruff.<br />
It is very important to calculate maximum flood discharge cor-<br />
rectly, and also it i5 a very difficult problem theoretically and<br />
practically. It m y be impossible to establish a plan for flood con-<br />
trol an8 water resources development or sewer nets projects <strong>with</strong>out<br />
reckoning correctly the maximum flood discharge or the design flood.<br />
There are many methods for calculation <strong>of</strong> maximum flood dis-<br />
charge, and we have to adopt the most suitable method in accordance<br />
<strong>with</strong> the completeness <strong>of</strong> the data. However,the method <strong>of</strong> calculation<br />
by the maximum flood discharge formulas,especially for the case <strong>of</strong><br />
those <strong>with</strong> inadequate data, is easy and simple for practicing engi-<br />
nßers. There are many empirical formulas devised by many authors<br />
such 88 Kuichling,Mead,KresnikeDickens,Metcalf and Eddy,Brix,Lauter-<br />
burg,Possenti,Buerkli-Ziegler,Dr.Hisanaga,Kajiyama,and many others.<br />
These old fosmulas have been devised empirioally and have limited<br />
application. It will be clear that one may be unable to apply them<br />
generallj.. Aliso it will not be strange to obtain results which may<br />
be 10 or liio time8 <strong>of</strong> the correct values, according to selection OP<br />
the coefficieqts in these formulais when these formulas are actually<br />
applied to practical problems.<br />
Generally speaking,the flood discharge depends upon the shape<br />
<strong>of</strong> catchment,drainage area,amount <strong>of</strong> rainfall and the position at-<br />
taoked by the heavy rainfall,pemneability,slope <strong>of</strong> the catchment,<br />
shape <strong>of</strong> the water cours6,status <strong>of</strong> the surface,geological status,<br />
etc. Strictly epeaking,such statua <strong>of</strong> catchment differs from others<br />
from se68on to season,for every floo8,even in the same catchment as<br />
well as in different draimge basins. In other words,flood disoharge<br />
üepends also upon the inteneity <strong>of</strong> Fainfall which causes the flood,<br />
duration <strong>of</strong> the rainfall and the position <strong>of</strong> the oater <strong>of</strong> the lows,<br />
or statua <strong>of</strong> the ground in case <strong>of</strong> heavy rainfall,vie.,dry ground or<br />
saturated qround,etc.<br />
As the maximum flood discharge depends upon many factors, as<br />
stated above, it may be very difficult to express it in a formula.<br />
However,if we can consider theoretioally correct value <strong>of</strong> approaching<br />
velocity <strong>of</strong> rain water and intensity <strong>of</strong> rainfall, we may deduct<br />
the maximum probable flood by getting the rainfall for a certain districtc<br />
The principle <strong>of</strong> derivation <strong>of</strong> the author's formulas belongs<br />
to this process, and it may be said that this is an approach differe.it<br />
from many scholars who had derived the old formulas.<br />
~<br />
* Ruff,Charles F.;nMaximuni probable floods in Pennsylvania Streamst'<br />
Transactions ,American Society <strong>of</strong> Civil Engineers .Vol .i06,1g4l ,p . 11 53
637<br />
In the first step, the author thought out a method to ascertain<br />
correctly the approaching velocity <strong>of</strong> rain water. At the same time,<br />
the author found that the Rizha's (Germany) formula,the o<strong>nl</strong>y complete<br />
one for this purpose, could not be applicable to solve practical<br />
problem8 as it gives too small values. In the second step, the author<br />
studied the rainfall intensity curve comprehensively, and found out<br />
theoretically when the maximum flood discharge may occur. In the<br />
third step, the author has theoretically derived the maximum dia,<br />
charge formulas for rivers <strong>with</strong> many tributaries by appljing the<br />
general rules which he has determined by the first and second step.<br />
In the fourth step, the author determined the discharge coefficient<br />
in his formula from the actual records. The author was then able to<br />
calculate the value <strong>of</strong> the discharge coefficient, <strong>with</strong> a great degree<br />
<strong>of</strong> acouracy, <strong>of</strong> the rivers in Korea and Manchuria.<br />
II. APPROACHING VELOCITY OF RAIN WATER<br />
The approaohing velocity <strong>of</strong> rain water (U) is defined as the<br />
mean velocity <strong>of</strong> rain, water approaching from the farthest point F in<br />
a river basin to the point O where the maximum flood discharge is to<br />
be ascertained,in other words, the mean velocity <strong>of</strong> flow between F<br />
and O (Fig-1). There is o<strong>nl</strong>y one formula to find such approaching<br />
velocity so far expressed in equation, given by Rizha,Germany, and a<br />
table given by Kraven,Germany.<br />
1) RIZYA'S FORMULA<br />
0" 72 So'' (1)<br />
where<br />
a= Approaching velocity <strong>of</strong> rain water (km/hr)<br />
s = H/L<br />
H = Difference <strong>of</strong> elevation <strong>of</strong> height between O and F<br />
L = Distance <strong>of</strong> OF (Length <strong>of</strong> water course)<br />
2) KRAVEN'S TABLE<br />
- C above 0.01 0.01 0.005 below 0.005<br />
w (kln/hr) 12.6 10.8 7.56<br />
Kraven had expressed o<strong>nl</strong>y about approximate limite <strong>of</strong> Cd , the<br />
author tried to formulate his table, to pass through the medium<br />
points as follows.<br />
3) THE AUTHOR'S FORMULA<br />
The author succeasfully devised a new method to determine the<br />
approaching velocity <strong>of</strong> rain water e3 ,theoretically which may be<br />
applicable for rivers where the hydrographic surveying was completed.<br />
Neglecting the principle and the process <strong>of</strong> derivation here, the result<br />
<strong>of</strong> the author's formula is illustrated as follows.<br />
(2)
638<br />
The value <strong>of</strong> for rivers in Manchuria calculated using eq(3) is<br />
shown in Table-i. As we see Table-1, the value <strong>of</strong> lies between 133<br />
and í77, and we may be able to recognize that the Rizhass formula wil<br />
not be <strong>of</strong> practical use because <strong>of</strong> the reason that the salue <strong>of</strong> iCt in<br />
his formula is too smll,apparently,compared <strong>with</strong> the normal salues.<br />
ide can also see from Table-1 that the value <strong>of</strong> K represents the<br />
bottom slope OP the hydraulic siope <strong>of</strong> the river, and this fact coin-<br />
cides <strong>with</strong> practice. Also it can be seen that the value <strong>of</strong> &, de-<br />
ureases gradually according aa approaching the downstream <strong>of</strong> a river,<br />
and this fact skok's that the bottom slope or the hydraulic slope <strong>of</strong><br />
a rivep generally decreases gradually as we approach the downstream.<br />
III. RAPFALL INTENSITY CURVE<br />
h'e can express the rainfall intensity by the following equation.<br />
Table-I. The values <strong>of</strong> & and others fop rivers in Manchuria<br />
Name <strong>of</strong> Rivers<br />
/c Range <strong>of</strong> S<br />
(400)<br />
Tumen 8.<br />
277 4.82 - 8,06 33,400 487.6 68.50. .LW<br />
Whancheng R.<br />
207 6.72 - 9.64 4,000 160.7 24.92 .l52<br />
Rohe H.<br />
177 3.54 - 4.22 31,455 444.0 70.84 -159<br />
Seasamorin R.<br />
171 2.81 - 2.97 29,927 412.0 72.64 .i76<br />
Sealeog R.<br />
149 8.37 - 3.48 510165 767.0 66.71 .O86<br />
Tongleog 3.<br />
207 1.70 - 3.16 10,318 33345 313.13 -093<br />
The upatrean <strong>of</strong> the 150 1.83 - 2.30 178,699 . 1040.5 171.74 .O65<br />
min Lacg R.<br />
The middle <strong>of</strong> the Leog 158 1.62 - 1.77 187,250 1199.0 157.49 0132<br />
GhsnF: R.<br />
159 3.90 - 5.51 4,958 163.0 30 . 42 .i86<br />
Icwaslg R.<br />
137 4-36 - 5.26 2,129 94.0 22.65 231<br />
Van R.<br />
149 7.07 -18,66 1,072 102.5 10.46 .lo2<br />
Pa B.<br />
150 3.68 4.06 2,361 178.0 13.26 e 074<br />
Csnkai R.<br />
134 1.43 - 1.96 515 51.0 10.10 .198<br />
F:catchmtmt area<br />
I = ß/(t + 1 ( 4) L:length <strong>of</strong> main water oourse<br />
wher0<br />
t= Bwatim<br />
I = Average intensity <strong>of</strong> rainfall during duration t<br />
OC,,^ = Any-constant<br />
Eq(4) represents a kind <strong>of</strong> hyperbola, and the constants a ar3.B can<br />
be found by eq(5) by the principles <strong>of</strong> the method <strong>of</strong> the least squame<br />
n(12t) - (ï)(ït)<br />
d= LI)' - n(I')<br />
B=<br />
(Il(P2t) - (It)(12)<br />
(I)~ - n(I')<br />
E= nwnber <strong>of</strong> observations<br />
Next let R be total. amount <strong>of</strong> rainfall aurin$ the buration t,<br />
R = It = p t/(t + QL 1 (4)
639<br />
T~ble-2 illustrates the values <strong>of</strong> the constants d and fi in eq(4)<br />
for various regions. In this table, those for the regions <strong>of</strong> Korea<br />
and Manchuria show the absolute maximum rainfall intensity curves<br />
during those periods, Those for the regions marked <strong>with</strong> the asterisk<br />
(*I were calculated by the author himself by the records <strong>of</strong> the re-<br />
cording gauges.<br />
IV. THE AUTHOR'S MAXIMUM FLOOD DISCHARGE FORMULAS<br />
1) FUNDAMENTAL FORMULA FOR THE CASE OF A RIVER WITH NON-TRIBUTARY<br />
(a) Retardation <strong>of</strong> Run-<strong>of</strong>f<br />
Table-2. The values <strong>of</strong> cc and P in eq(4)<br />
Region d a<br />
(min) (hour)<br />
P b the records (minutes)<br />
Period taken Range <strong>of</strong> t<br />
Seoul ,K 59 0.938 7,860 131 1905 - 1920 5-60 min<br />
Inchon , K 37.5 0.625 8,640 144 ditto 5-240<br />
PymgYanR , K 41 0.683 6,000 100 1914 - 1920 ditto<br />
Pusan , K 106.1 1.77 14,015 233.6 1914 - 1953 10min-24hr<br />
Wonsan , K 75 1.250 7,740 129. 1914 - 1920 5-240 min<br />
Taegu,K * 40.2 0.67 8,711 145.2 1929 - 1953 10min-24hr<br />
Chonj:i,K * 81.1 1.35 15,160 252.7 1918 - 1954 ditto<br />
Kwangju,K * 90.4 1.51 10,866 181.2 1938 - 1954 ditto<br />
Mokpo,K * 101.8 1.70 11,398 190 1916 - 1953 ditto<br />
ChmgCheng,): * 40.5 0.675 5,929 98.8 1937 - 1943 10min-48hr<br />
Sping,r? * 45.1 0.752 8,487 141.4 i934 - 1944 ditto<br />
Tokyo, J 50 0.833 5,500 91.6 1891 - 1911 5-60min<br />
where a d/60 b P 1'3 /60 KæKorea M=Manchuria JsJapan<br />
Prior to deecribing the flood discharge formula, the definition<br />
<strong>of</strong> "retardationR must be understood. Now let O and F be the point<br />
under coneiäeration and the farthest point <strong>of</strong> a catchment respective-<br />
ly, 1 be the length <strong>of</strong> water course between O and F , CL) the approaoh-<br />
ing velocity <strong>of</strong> rain water flowing from F to O, tc the time <strong>of</strong> con-<br />
centration,i.s.,the time necessary for reaching O from F, tr the du-<br />
ration OP rainfall,i.e.,the perlob between the beginning and enâing<br />
<strong>of</strong> a reinfall (see Fig-i), then,<br />
t, = l/Ld (79<br />
T tr + t c * tr + l/W í 8)<br />
where T P The time <strong>of</strong> the period between the beginning <strong>of</strong> a rain-<br />
fall and the ending <strong>of</strong> the run-<strong>of</strong>f due to the rainfall<br />
at the point O<br />
It may be better to use the author's formula for determining tc<br />
When it becomes tr
640<br />
falling at F reached O, the rainfall would have ceased. In other<br />
words, the rainfall causing the maximum flood discharge is the rain-<br />
fall which falls in a part <strong>of</strong> the catchment.<br />
(b) Fundamental Formula for the case <strong>of</strong> non-Retardation<br />
The fundamental principles <strong>of</strong> the author's maximum flood dis-<br />
charge formulas have already been described. The author adopted de-<br />
ductive and inductive theories for the derivation.<br />
Since it is unable to derive the rational equation <strong>of</strong> the flood<br />
discharge hydrograph, the author expressed the peak <strong>of</strong> the flood<br />
discharge hydrograph for the case <strong>of</strong> non-tributary and non-retardation<br />
by the following equation.<br />
- T = Duration <strong>of</strong> flood tr+ tc<br />
qm- 9. a CfA R / T (9)<br />
where<br />
qm = Peak discharge in flood time<br />
qo = Discharge <strong>of</strong> run-<strong>of</strong>f in normal time<br />
tr = Duration <strong>of</strong> rainfall<br />
tc = Approaching time or time <strong>of</strong> concentration<br />
R = Total amount <strong>of</strong> rainfall during duration <strong>of</strong> tr<br />
A = Catchment area<br />
9 = Average run-<strong>of</strong>f factor<br />
C P A coefficient depending upon the shape <strong>of</strong> the flood<br />
discharge hydrograph<br />
Now let Fig-,? show a discharge hydrograph during a flood period.Then<br />
the, peak disoharge qm-qO may be represented by eq(9)and the product<br />
AR <strong>of</strong> eq(9) shows the total run-<strong>of</strong>f during the period <strong>of</strong> flood<br />
T. As this also represents the area <strong>of</strong> DMED <strong>of</strong> Fig-2 geometrically,<br />
we may affirm that the authorls fundamental formula is reasonable<br />
anal tically or graphically. Replacing the value <strong>of</strong> R <strong>of</strong> eq(6) into<br />
ea(9 9 ,<br />
qm - qo=C 9 AB / T = C 9 A b tr /(tr + t, )(tr+ a (10)<br />
We h ow through eq(1O) that the peak discharge is a function <strong>of</strong> tr,<br />
anä it will take a limiting value to make the peak discharge maximum.<br />
So differentiating eq(l0) <strong>with</strong> respect to tr<br />
and.<br />
tr = (unit in hours) (11)<br />
T=t,+ tG= 6 +t, (12)<br />
Hence we know that the maximum flood discharge will occur when the<br />
duration <strong>of</strong> rainfall t r satisfies eq(l1). Up-to-datesue have taken tr<br />
generally <strong>with</strong>out definite reason as follows: 5 or 10 minutes for de-<br />
sign <strong>of</strong> sewers, 3 or 4 hours for small rivers flowing the vicinity <strong>of</strong><br />
a city, 24 home or more for big rivers. However aceording to the<br />
author's theory, the value <strong>of</strong> tr must satisfy eq(l1) to cause the<br />
maximum flood discharge. Substituting eq(l1) into eq(lO),
641<br />
If we express in metric units,i.e. ,A(km2),R(~) ,t (hr) ,q (cms), (13)<br />
becomes,<br />
qm-q,= 0.2778C 9 b a A / (t,+fic)( a+<br />
1<br />
where (14)<br />
a,b = any constants depending upon rainfall (see Table-2)<br />
The value <strong>of</strong> tc can be found from eq(3) .(see Table-1)<br />
(c) The value <strong>of</strong> the coefficient C<br />
As stated above, the coefficient C in eq(9) depends upon the<br />
8hape <strong>of</strong> the discharge hydrograph <strong>of</strong> the region . The relation be-<br />
tween the kinds <strong>of</strong> the cuPve consisting the discharge hydrograph and<br />
the value <strong>of</strong> C is illustrated deductively as fOllOW6.<br />
Table-3. The value <strong>of</strong> C found by deduction<br />
Kind <strong>of</strong> curve C kind <strong>of</strong> curve C<br />
parabol a 1.5 cosine curve 2.0<br />
triangle(strai ht 2.0 probability 2.394<br />
1 ins? curve<br />
Also the value <strong>of</strong> C can be calculated inductively from a dis-<br />
charge hydrograph by using eq(91,whioh gives,<br />
C 0 (qhi-Qo)T /$ARa(Qm=Q,)T/ V<br />
(15)<br />
nhere<br />
V = The volume <strong>of</strong> run-<strong>of</strong>f represented by the area DMED <strong>of</strong> Fig-2.<br />
The value <strong>of</strong> C for the rivers in Manchuria found by the author using<br />
eq(l5) are given in Table-4.<br />
Table-4. The value <strong>of</strong> C for Manchrian rivers found by induction<br />
Name <strong>of</strong> river Site <strong>of</strong> Duration <strong>of</strong> flood taken Value Value<br />
measurement from the records<br />
<strong>of</strong>' T <strong>of</strong> .c<br />
( hr , day-hr ,day, month, r<br />
Tongleog Ho Tidathergtse 15,3rd-21 ,4th,Aug,l9ii 30 1.664<br />
n<br />
Sankankeu 12,10 .e 5,21 ,Sep,1939 257 1 .697<br />
Whan Ho P eidakeng 15,24. -1 9 , 27, AUg,l94O 76 1.543<br />
Main stream C hengs enkong 19,2nd- 6,6th,Sep,1939 83 2.090<br />
<strong>of</strong> Leog Ho<br />
ditto<br />
ditto 797th- 7,103 Se~r1939 72 1.966<br />
Taitse Ho Whelongbo 12,31Jul-3,3~,Aug,1940 63 1.754<br />
n<br />
n<br />
9,4th-i7,6th,A~g,l 940 56 1 0975<br />
I<br />
n<br />
16,6th-l9,8th, I<br />
51 1.087<br />
n<br />
n<br />
17,2nd- 8 s 5thSSQp ,1939 63 2.137<br />
n<br />
H<br />
9,jth-l6,9th, " " 103 1.806<br />
n<br />
5,6th-l3,9th, Jul , 80 2 . 204*<br />
* show6 the value oalculated by estimation because <strong>of</strong> non-measurement<br />
at the vicinity <strong>of</strong> the peak discharge.<br />
(d) The fundamental formula for the case <strong>of</strong> retardation <strong>of</strong> flow
642<br />
The basic formula for the case Of non-retarclation ,mentioned<br />
above, is applicable for the case <strong>of</strong> retardation <strong>of</strong> flow,too. But it<br />
is necessary to multiply the coefficientp due to retardation, viz.,<br />
q,-qo=yCpbf& A /(tc+GL )(a+ Gc 1 (16)<br />
p = f(tc/tr) (17)<br />
It is clear that the value <strong>of</strong> the Coefficient /3 equals to 1 for the<br />
case <strong>of</strong> non-retardation, but it beoomes less than 1 for the case <strong>of</strong><br />
retardation. The value <strong>of</strong> p varies inversely <strong>with</strong> that <strong>of</strong> tc / t, .<br />
It is necessary to find out a general form <strong>of</strong> f(tc/tr) for<br />
practical calculation. So the author tried to find out the general<br />
form <strong>of</strong> the function f(tL/ty) atoohastically using some data ob tained for rivers in Korea by some other methods. The author would<br />
like to assume the general form <strong>of</strong> the function <strong>of</strong>p as follows.<br />
J)= (1 + k 1 / ( tc/t,+ k 1<br />
where k = Any constant<br />
Finding the value <strong>of</strong> k in above equation by the method <strong>of</strong> the least<br />
squares, we get k = 4.802 . Accordingly,<br />
p= 5.802 / (tc /tr+ 4.802) (18)<br />
2) 'THE MAXIYUM FLOOD DISCHARGE FORMULAS FOR THE CASE OF RIVERS<br />
WITH TRIBCTARIES<br />
(a) The maximum flood discharge st the confluence <strong>of</strong> a trlbutary<br />
The author found that existence <strong>of</strong> tributaries affect greatly<br />
the peak discharge <strong>of</strong> flood flow at the proposed site <strong>of</strong> the main<br />
stream. Su the author derived many different formulas <strong>of</strong> maximum dis-<br />
charm for the case <strong>of</strong> rivers <strong>with</strong> tributaries, besides the basic<br />
formula for the case <strong>of</strong> thoee <strong>with</strong> non-tributary. Therefore it would<br />
be said that this is a great approach different from many scholars<br />
who never considered the Influence <strong>of</strong> tributaries in their tradition-<br />
al formulas.<br />
KOW assume one <strong>of</strong> the simplest case as Fig-3. The discharge<br />
hydrograph for this case may be illustrated as Fig-&. The value <strong>of</strong> q,<br />
in ~ig-4 shows the peak discharge <strong>of</strong> the triùutaryíI), and the value<br />
<strong>of</strong> q2 shows that <strong>of</strong> the main river (II) alone,excluding that <strong>of</strong> the<br />
tributary(1) , also Qm shows that <strong>of</strong> the composed maximum discharge<br />
to be occurred at the proposed site. The rational equation <strong>of</strong> the<br />
curve ,i.e.,the true shape <strong>of</strong> the discharge hydrograph is unknown.<br />
But the author would like to discuss about the shape <strong>of</strong> the curve in<br />
the following. Let us consider two cases, one <strong>of</strong> them the simplest<br />
case,i.e.,the case assumed that the discharge hydrograph consista <strong>of</strong><br />
an isosceles triangle, and the other the case assumed that it consists<br />
<strong>of</strong> a parabolio ourve, to seek the effect <strong>of</strong> the nature <strong>of</strong> the<br />
discharge hydrograph which influences on the peak disoharge Qn
(i) 'The case <strong>of</strong> an isosceles triangle<br />
In this case, it evident from Fig-5,<br />
TE<br />
Um" qp+q,(2 --1<br />
T,<br />
(ii) The case <strong>of</strong> a parabola<br />
(19)<br />
643<br />
Since it is evident as the nature <strong>of</strong> the parabola,at Fig-6,<br />
q = 4qot/T - 4q,(t/TI2 í a)<br />
we can get the following equation for Fig-?,<br />
and by dQ/dt = O Q,/TI + q2 /T2<br />
to= 2 (q,/T,' + q,/T:)<br />
Accordingly, substituting eq( 201 into eq( b) , we get<br />
NUMERlCAL EXAMPLE<br />
(20)<br />
An ilìwtration is given here to compare the degree <strong>of</strong> accuracy<br />
<strong>of</strong> the two cbses mentioned above.<br />
Given T2 = 26 hr, TI = 20 hr, = 5000 cms, q = 3000 cms . Then since<br />
Te/T,= 26/20 = 1.3 from eq81) , the case <strong>of</strong> assuming as parabolic<br />
curve, &TA= (5000 + jOOOx1.3<br />
/( 5000 + 3000x1.3x1.3 1 -<br />
7865 cms<br />
Next from eq(19), the straight line formula,<br />
Qm = 5000 + 3000x(2 - 1.3) = 7100 cms<br />
Hence,we h ow that there is not any remarkable difference on the re-<br />
sults <strong>of</strong> calculation <strong>of</strong> the maximum discharge whether we assume the<br />
discharge hydrograph as straight lines or a parabolic curve through<br />
this numerical example. Aliso we can imagine that we shall obtain the<br />
similar results <strong>with</strong> this numerical example even in the cases we<br />
adopt Borne other ourves else than parabola for the discharge hydro-<br />
graph,e.g.,cosine or probability curve. But adopting the oase as-<br />
sumed as a parabolic curve is safer,easier to handle,& reasonable.<br />
So the author would like to suggest those <strong>of</strong> the parabolic curve as<br />
the general formula in this paper.<br />
(b) The maximum flood discharge formula at the confluence for the<br />
oaee <strong>of</strong> a river where n-1 tributaries flow into the confluence<br />
(F ig-8 1<br />
If we assme the discharge hydrograph consists <strong>of</strong> a parabolic<br />
curve, by the srne priciple <strong>with</strong> that in the previous paragraph, we<br />
(0) The maximum flood discharge at the proposed site which is<br />
located the downstream <strong>of</strong> a tributary
644<br />
Now let O is the proposed site, O' the confluence <strong>of</strong> the tributary<br />
in Fig-10, and t, is the necesssry tirne for reaching <strong>of</strong> rain<br />
water from O' to O. If we assume the discharge hydrograph consists<br />
<strong>of</strong> a parabolic curve.FiR-11 ,then<br />
Q = Q;,+ qiez4q, (t-t, 1 /TI - 4 qi( t - t , l2 / TF+4 qr t/T+ - 4 kt2 /Ti (<br />
(d) The maximum flood discharge at 8 proposed site where n-1 tribu-<br />
taries join to the main river at its upstream side.(Fig-12)<br />
if we assume the discharge hydrograph consists <strong>of</strong> 8 parabolic<br />
curve, by the same principle <strong>with</strong> that in the previous paragraph, we<br />
(e) The ma>;Smum flood discharge at a proposed site where m tribu-<br />
taies flow into this site and n-1 tributaries join to the<br />
main river at its upetream side. (Fig-14)<br />
This is the most general case. If we assume the discharge hydro-<br />
graph consists <strong>of</strong> a parabolic curve, by the same principles, we get<br />
V. CONCLUSION<br />
The maximum flood discharge generally increase toward âown-<br />
stream, a6 the result <strong>of</strong> increment <strong>of</strong> the drainage area. But as the<br />
approaching time also increases approaching down stream,in other<br />
words,ss the nearer approaching downstrem,the greater effect <strong>of</strong> re-<br />
tardatlon. Accordingly the rate <strong>of</strong> increment <strong>of</strong> the peak discharge<br />
decreases generally approaching downstream; and sometimes,i.e.,in<br />
such oa8e18 where the approaching time remarkably increases compared<br />
<strong>with</strong> the inorement <strong>of</strong> the drainage area, not o<strong>nl</strong>y the rate but also<br />
the actual absolute value <strong>of</strong> the peak discharge decreases at the dom<br />
stream than those <strong>of</strong> the upstream. These fsots are experienced some-<br />
times in practice, In such cases,it was impossible to expreee this<br />
fa& by the old formulas. However by the author's formulas, it is<br />
ìGYi
645<br />
easy am2 theoretically sound to express this fact. Because as we see<br />
the author's basic formulas-eq( 9)-(14) , which represent the drainage<br />
area A in the numerator and the factor <strong>of</strong> the approaching time tc in<br />
the denominator. So it may also be said that the author's formulas<br />
are very theoretical from the point <strong>of</strong> view <strong>of</strong> this fact.<br />
As mentioned above,the author derived theoretically,i.e.,ration-<br />
ally or stochastically many formulas <strong>of</strong> maximum flood discharge- the<br />
basic formulas for the case <strong>of</strong> a river <strong>with</strong> non-tributary and many<br />
other different formulas for the case <strong>of</strong> rivers <strong>with</strong> tributaries. Be-<br />
cause the author found that the existence <strong>of</strong> tributaries affect great-<br />
ly not o<strong>nl</strong>y the peak discharge but also the entire shape <strong>of</strong> the dis-<br />
charge hydrograph at the proposed site <strong>of</strong> the downstream. Consequent-<br />
ly it may be posaible,by applying the author's formulas,to find the<br />
real shape <strong>of</strong> the discharge hydrograph at the point under consider-<br />
ation to be occurreti in some flood time.<br />
Some scholars advocate that the actual shape <strong>of</strong> the flood dia-<br />
charge hydrograph resembles to ~ig-16. On the other hand,some other<br />
scholars insist that it should be resembled to Fig-17. But the author<br />
should say that these theories both advocated by the traditional<br />
scholars are those have not been touched to the core <strong>of</strong> the true theo-<br />
ries. The real shape <strong>of</strong> the discharge hydrograph depends upon the lo-<br />
cality Qf the point under consideration,in other words, it depends on<br />
the relat4ve position <strong>of</strong> the proposed point and those <strong>of</strong> the conflu-<br />
ences <strong>of</strong> th? tributaries on the mainstream under consideration. Conse-<br />
quently it is resembled to ~ig-16 in some cases, and also it takes a<br />
shape resembleel to Fig-17 in some casessin accordance <strong>with</strong> the locali-<br />
ty <strong>of</strong> the point under consideration. As stated above,it would be able<br />
to show the real shape <strong>of</strong> the discharge hydrgraph just fitted in the<br />
locality <strong>of</strong> the proposed site by applying the author's formulas.<br />
The author's formulas also would be applicable not o<strong>nl</strong>y for the<br />
purpose <strong>of</strong> reckoning <strong>of</strong> the design flood, but also for that <strong>of</strong> esti-<br />
mation <strong>of</strong> the flood routing for some floods. In the case <strong>of</strong> flood<br />
routing,it would be possible to obtain more correct results by taking<br />
the real value fop tr instead <strong>of</strong> that calculated from eq(l1) in some<br />
cases,i.e.,the real value <strong>of</strong> tr is greatly different from that calcu-<br />
lated from eq(i1).<br />
The author's formulas would be widely applicable for rivers or<br />
sewer nets,& also for any regions,countries <strong>with</strong> different locality,<br />
and it would be possible to obtain correct and accurate results by<br />
selecting or assuming the values <strong>of</strong> the coefficieuits in his fQrUIUlaS<br />
appropriately. Aceoräingly the author should like to suggest that the<br />
author's formulas shall be applied in practioe in many regions and<br />
also for many purpose8 as far as possible.
(p<br />
646<br />
F ¡y -I<br />
e<br />
c, 3<br />
O<br />
Fig- 7<br />
e<br />
t<br />
-+<br />
O<br />
Fi 9 -2<br />
Fig- 8<br />
Y<br />
ot P<br />
O<br />
Fìg -9<br />
Fij-3<br />
t
647
THE COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF WATER RESOURCES SYSTEMS<br />
CONSIDERING INADEQUATE HYDROLOGICAL DATA<br />
Nathan Buras, Ph.D.<br />
The Lowdermilk Faculty <strong>of</strong> Agricultural Engineering<br />
Technion - Israel Institute <strong>of</strong> Technology, Haifa, Israel<br />
Introduction.<br />
The question <strong>of</strong> how much hydrological information is<br />
necessary for the design <strong>of</strong> water resources systems has not<br />
been answered satisfactorily as yet. Perhaps this question<br />
does not admit <strong>of</strong> a unique answer, but rather <strong>of</strong> a range <strong>with</strong>-<br />
in which the specific solution to a given situation may be<br />
found .<br />
In general, one can state intuitively that the cost <strong>of</strong><br />
a water resources project decreases <strong>with</strong> the amount <strong>of</strong> avail-<br />
able hydrological data. For example, a longer hydrological<br />
trace at a given reservoir site will yield improved estimates<br />
<strong>of</strong> mean annual discharges and <strong>of</strong> extreme flows, so that the<br />
dimensions <strong>of</strong> the dam and <strong>of</strong> the spillway may be reduced for<br />
a given probability <strong>of</strong> failure during the same period <strong>of</strong> time.<br />
On the other hand, additional hydrological data irivolve in-<br />
creased cost, not o<strong>nl</strong>y in terms <strong>of</strong> more gauging stations and<br />
<strong>of</strong> the attendant manpower, but also in terms qf 'osts incurred<br />
to the society by delaying the design and the covistruction <strong>of</strong><br />
the project until more data is collected and processed. Schem-<br />
atically, one can show these two cost functions as two curves<br />
intersecting in the data-cost space (Figure 1). However, <strong>of</strong><br />
practical importance are not the individual cost curves, but<br />
the parabola which is the sum <strong>of</strong> the two functions. We shall<br />
define, therefore, as adequate hydrological data the amount<br />
<strong>of</strong> hydrological information corresponding to tho niinimum<br />
ordinate <strong>of</strong> the total cost curve. This definition impli-s<br />
that hydrological data in excess <strong>of</strong> this amount are as '.nade-<br />
quate as those which are short <strong>of</strong> it: indeed, the effort put<br />
in obtaining this additional information may increase the total<br />
cost <strong>of</strong> the project. For this reason, we recommend the use <strong>of</strong><br />
the terms insufficient data for the information less than ade-<br />
quate, and redundant data for the information in excess <strong>of</strong> the<br />
point <strong>of</strong> adequacy.<br />
The problem <strong>of</strong> adequate hydrological data is part <strong>of</strong> the<br />
broader issue <strong>of</strong> planning water resource; s@erns. Within this<br />
e<strong>nl</strong>arged context, the hydrological data is but one <strong>of</strong> the<br />
several planning variables, the others being socio-economic<br />
considerations, organizational and i.nstitutiona1 structures,<br />
political constraints, and so on. The role <strong>of</strong> the hydrological<br />
data in a complex water resources system was investigated relative<br />
to the water quality in the Potomac estuary [I]. In this<br />
analysis, four planning variables were considered: (a) hydrological<br />
inputs; (b) models <strong>of</strong> the dissolved oxygen fluctuations
650<br />
in the estuary; (c) economic projections <strong>of</strong> the region serviced<br />
by the water resources system; (d) water quality objectives in<br />
the estuary. Under the specific conditions <strong>of</strong> the Potomac, it<br />
was found that the performance <strong>of</strong> the planned water resources<br />
system was most sensitive to the economic projections, and<br />
least sensitive to the hydrological planning variable (10-<br />
year and 50-year sequences <strong>of</strong> hydrological data).<br />
Sufficiency <strong>of</strong> hydrological data.<br />
It does not seem that there is today a generally accepted<br />
method for the evaluation <strong>of</strong> the amount <strong>of</strong> hydrological data<br />
<strong>with</strong> respect to their adequacy for planning water resources<br />
systems. However, the problem was recognized for some time and<br />
several approaches toward its solution were developed. One such<br />
approach, based on the concept <strong>of</strong> information content <strong>of</strong> the<br />
observed data [2], is oriented toward the determination <strong>of</strong> an<br />
opt,imal .letwork <strong>of</strong> hydrological stations in a region. A some-<br />
what similar approach is based on minimizing the sum <strong>of</strong> variances<br />
<strong>of</strong> the estimates <strong>of</strong> the mean flows at gaging stations in a hydro-<br />
logical network subject to a budgetary constraint [3]. All these<br />
approaches attempt, in fact, to devise optimal strategies <strong>of</strong><br />
hydrc logical sampling.<br />
However, when considering the L msequences <strong>of</strong> inadequate<br />
h,droiogical data on the cost and effectiveness <strong>of</strong> water resources<br />
Ftrur?l,!res anfi FroJects, it secas thnt the scope <strong>of</strong> the analysis<br />
Iza> to be broadened. This analysis takes into account not o<strong>nl</strong>y<br />
ali pcc:;ible sample results, but also computes the expected<br />
worth 3r expected opportunity loss) <strong>of</strong> a strategy which assumes<br />
that the best decisions (regarding the various components <strong>of</strong> a<br />
water resouI-ces system - to construrit or not to construct) are<br />
dependent upon the information content <strong>of</strong> the observed sample.<br />
This approach is called preposterior anal sis [4], because,<br />
&hough carried out before the sample + in ormation is obtained,<br />
it attempis + assesserior probabilities derived on a particular<br />
sapl e rutcome.<br />
A simple example will illustrate the preposterior analysis.<br />
Suppose that the Development Authority <strong>of</strong> region Aleph is considering<br />
thF construction <strong>of</strong> a major dam. However, the Authority<br />
wants ils~ to appraise the advisability <strong>of</strong> obtaining additional<br />
hydrological data thus delaying the planning and implementation<br />
schedule by a few years. It is estimated that total costs involved<br />
in obtaining the additional data, including costs generated by the<br />
non-availability <strong>of</strong> water and water derivatives at the dam site
651<br />
6<br />
during the additional time period, are 15 x 10 Monetary Units<br />
(in short, 15 MMü). The contemplated structure needs an invest-<br />
ment <strong>of</strong> 160 MMU, while the present value <strong>of</strong> the stream <strong>of</strong> net<br />
benefits generated by it would add up to 200 W.<br />
The Authority has two options:<br />
al: build the dam<br />
a2:<br />
do not build the dam<br />
<strong>with</strong> the possible outcomes<br />
el: the project is successful<br />
9,: the project is a failure.<br />
On the basis <strong>of</strong> past experience and <strong>with</strong> the help <strong>of</strong> a<br />
firm <strong>of</strong> consulting engineers, the Authority reaches the con-<br />
clusion that the prior probabilities <strong>of</strong> success or failure are<br />
p(el) = 0.25<br />
p(e2) = 0.75.<br />
On the basis <strong>of</strong> the existing data the prior expected<br />
opportunity losses (EOL) can be computed as follows:<br />
Table 1.<br />
Calculation <strong>of</strong> Prior Expected 0pportimj.ty Losses<br />
a,: build the dam<br />
Probability Opportunity Loss, Wej-giited Oppor-<br />
Out come p(e; - MMu tunity Loss, MNRT<br />
el: success O<br />
û2: failure 150<br />
O<br />
120<br />
m<br />
EOL (u,) -- 120 MMU<br />
a,: do not build the dam<br />
Outcome<br />
Probability<br />
p(e4 - )<br />
Opportunity Loss,<br />
ndMu<br />
Weighted Opportunity<br />
LGSS, MMU<br />
el: success<br />
û2: failure<br />
200<br />
O<br />
50<br />
O<br />
EOL (a,) = 50 MMü<br />
opt EOL = EOL (a,) = 50 MMü<br />
5u
652<br />
Thus, <strong>with</strong> no additional information, the best decision<br />
would be not to build the dam. In this way, region Aleph would<br />
forfeit o<strong>nl</strong>y 50 NIMU, the expected opportunity loss.<br />
Now the Development Authority turns to its Hydrological<br />
Service asking its advice regarding the nature and usefulness<br />
<strong>of</strong> the additional information which may be obtained& the cost<br />
<strong>of</strong> 15 MMU. The attitude <strong>of</strong> the Hydrological Service is that. by<br />
and large the additional data would yield one <strong>of</strong> the following<br />
three types <strong>of</strong> indications regarding the effectiveness <strong>of</strong> the<br />
reservoir (in terms <strong>of</strong> streamflow regulation, hydropower gener-<br />
ation, flood contral, etc.):<br />
X1: increase in effectiveness<br />
X2: no change<br />
X3: decrease in effectiveness.<br />
These variables could have been measured o<strong>nl</strong>y when projects were<br />
constructed, whether successful or not. Thus, the Hydrological<br />
Service had in its records a set <strong>of</strong> joint probabilities P(X.1)gi)<br />
as follows:<br />
J<br />
out co1iie<br />
Table 2.<br />
Joint Probabili ties<br />
P( XJW; )<br />
'i x1 x2 x3<br />
0,: project successful 0.20 0.05 0.05<br />
û2: project unsuccessful 0.05 0.10 0.55<br />
- - 7<br />
To taï<br />
To tal 0.25 O. 15 0.60 1 .o0<br />
Of course, the column totals represent the mar inal proba-<br />
bilities <strong>of</strong> .the usefulness <strong>of</strong> the additional data: PTX,) = 0.25,<br />
P(X,) = 0.15, P(X3) = 0.60.<br />
The expected value <strong>of</strong> the information which may be obtained<br />
by the additional hydrological data is reached by means <strong>of</strong>' a dia-<br />
gram, as shown in Figure 2. The set <strong>of</strong> probabilities appearing<br />
in the last branches <strong>of</strong> the decision tree are conditional probabi-<br />
lities p(eiJxj),
653<br />
The amount <strong>of</strong> 28.9 MMU appearing at the node (a) in the<br />
decision tree represents the expected opportunity loss if it is<br />
decided to obtain additional hydrological information and if<br />
optimal decisions would be made on the basis <strong>of</strong> the new data.<br />
Comparingbhis amount <strong>with</strong> the 50 MMU obtained under Itno additional<br />
data" policy (Table I), it appears that it is worth spending<br />
50.0 -'.2&9 = 21.1 MMU in getting more hydrological information.<br />
The difference between the outcomes <strong>of</strong> the two policies is called<br />
the expected value <strong>of</strong> sample information. The expected net gain<br />
<strong>of</strong> sample information is 21.1 - 15 = 6.1 MMU, i.e., the expected<br />
value <strong>of</strong> the sample information exceeds the costs incurred in<br />
obtaining it. The Development Authority concludes, on the basis<br />
<strong>of</strong> preposterior analysis, that it is worthwhile to get the addi-<br />
tional hydrological information.<br />
Cost-effectiveness.<br />
Cost-effectiveness is, in fact, engineering economics<br />
[5]. It is concerned <strong>with</strong> evaluation <strong>of</strong> a system worth, before<br />
the decision is made to construct the system. Thus cost-effectiveness<br />
is future oriented, and because <strong>of</strong> it its mode <strong>of</strong><br />
expression is in terms <strong>of</strong> probabilities and expectations.<br />
With reference to the situation represmted by Figure 1 ,<br />
one can relate cost-effectiveness <strong>with</strong> the reciprocal <strong>of</strong> Cost,<br />
i.e., l/(cost). In this way, the lower the cost <strong>of</strong> a project,<br />
the higher would be its cost-effectiveness (which wculd also be<br />
a measure <strong>of</strong> its worth).<br />
Now, the cost-effectiveness <strong>of</strong> a system (as measured by<br />
its worth) increases <strong>with</strong> the amount <strong>of</strong> information available<br />
at the time when the system is designed. In other words, this<br />
is a re-statement <strong>of</strong> the truism that the more we know about the<br />
universe <strong>with</strong>in which we design a system, the better the chances<br />
to produce a good design. The increase in the cost-effectiveness<br />
can then be observed <strong>with</strong> respect to two major aspects.<br />
(a) Flexibility in plarmin . Because <strong>of</strong> hydrological,<br />
economic, an-gacing the planner <strong>of</strong> a water<br />
resources system, it is desirable to produce a flexible system.<br />
In this context, byYlexibilitytl is understood one or more <strong>of</strong><br />
the following attributes:
654<br />
(i) The possibility <strong>of</strong> increasing the capacity <strong>of</strong> the<br />
system by adding additional components <strong>of</strong> the same kind (e.g.,<br />
pwnp stations in a pipeline network).<br />
(ii) The possibility <strong>of</strong> altering operating policies so<br />
that the system may respond to a broader range <strong>of</strong> demands.<br />
(iii) The possibility <strong>of</strong> modifying the system when the<br />
nature <strong>of</strong> the demand changes, e.g., when there is a traasition<br />
from irrigation to domestic and industrial uses <strong>of</strong> water.<br />
(iv) The possibility <strong>of</strong> constructing the system in<br />
stages, so as to respond to increases in the demand for water.<br />
(b) Reversible vs. irreversible decisions. The design<br />
<strong>of</strong> a system or <strong>of</strong> a component is a one-stage decision process:<br />
the size and dimensions are established. If the system is im-<br />
plemented, the design decision may have irreversible effects<br />
upon the emironment, such as the transformation <strong>of</strong> a canyon<br />
<strong>of</strong> unique scenic beauty into a man-made lake <strong>of</strong> doubtful<br />
esthetic value. The decision to delay implementation is<br />
reversible, since it keeps open the alternative to construct the<br />
system. In addition, until the first decision is reversed,<br />
additional information may affect several planning details, ar-d<br />
also technologies may be improved in the interim.<br />
As an example <strong>of</strong> the introduction <strong>of</strong> these two aspects<br />
in the planning process, one can indicate thi. Israel <strong>Water</strong><br />
Scheme. The planning process was oriented toward increasing<br />
the cost-effectiveness <strong>of</strong> the system, especially <strong>with</strong> respect<br />
to flexibility in design and to the reversibility oî decisions [6].<br />
The development <strong>of</strong> water resources progressed from local ground<br />
water schemes, to regional groundwater projects, finally to the<br />
construction <strong>of</strong> the major component related to surface water<br />
resources - the National <strong>Water</strong> Carrier.<br />
Planning and design <strong>with</strong> inadequate data.<br />
The adequacy <strong>of</strong> hydrological data as defined by Figne 1<br />
represents one aspect <strong>of</strong> the general problem <strong>of</strong> the consequences<br />
<strong>of</strong> inadequate hydrological dataon the cost and effectiveness <strong>of</strong><br />
water resources structures and projects. Although this aspect<br />
can be quantified, it is still somewhat mechanistic.<br />
Another aspect would stress the linkage between data<br />
and decisions in the planning process. Although this aspect
655<br />
also lends itself to'quantification, at least as far as the<br />
data are concerned, it seems that it reflects also the quality<br />
<strong>of</strong> the ensuing design (and operating) decisions.<br />
It would be perhaps beyond the scope <strong>of</strong> this paper to<br />
survey the state <strong>of</strong> the art in the planning and the design <strong>of</strong><br />
water resources systems <strong>with</strong> inadequate data. However, it<br />
would be instructive to mention two <strong>of</strong> the more recent contributions<br />
to this problem: one dealing primarily <strong>with</strong> surface<br />
water, and another related to groundwater.<br />
Wallis and Matalas [7] consider the problem <strong>of</strong> deter-<br />
mining the capacity <strong>of</strong> a surface reservoir such that a given level<br />
<strong>of</strong> demand be satisfied. Observed hydrological data were used to<br />
generate synthetic flow sequences, using two different sequence-<br />
generating mechanisms: (a) a well-known model based on the<br />
Markovian process; (b) a model developed recently [8] which<br />
assumes the process to have a finite memory length M and the<br />
Hurst coefficient h; this is called the filtered type 2 process.<br />
It seems that for streamflow regulation <strong>of</strong> up to 80$ <strong>of</strong> the mean<br />
annual flow, the Markovian model may be quite useful for the<br />
determination <strong>of</strong> the minimum necessary storage; for higher degrees<br />
<strong>of</strong> streamflow regulation, the filtered type 2 model <strong>with</strong> h 7 2<br />
should be used.<br />
Maddock [g] used mixed integer programming methods for<br />
evolving a planning and management model <strong>of</strong> a groimd water<br />
development project. The model is oriented toward deterqining<br />
three components <strong>of</strong> the overall system: (a) least cost operation<br />
<strong>of</strong> existing wells; (b) least cost spatial and temporal schedule<br />
for installing new weììs; (c) least cost transport system to.<br />
convey the pumped water to a central demand point. The methodo-<br />
logy developed is tested on a hypothetical sample problem in<br />
which ground water development has to satisfy the demands for<br />
water <strong>of</strong> a town. The concept <strong>of</strong> expected value <strong>of</strong> opportunity<br />
loss (similar to the expected opportunity loss encountered in<br />
the preposterior analysis) is used as a measure <strong>of</strong> how much<br />
the errors inherent in estimating the model parameters will<br />
affect the cost <strong>of</strong> the project in terms <strong>of</strong> overdevelopment or<br />
underdevelopment. The results <strong>of</strong> the analysis indicate that the<br />
reduction <strong>of</strong> uncertainty for the purpose <strong>of</strong> decreasing the<br />
expected value <strong>of</strong> the opportunity loss should be a balanced<br />
activity, i.e., beyond F- given point, further reduction <strong>of</strong> the<br />
hydrological uncertainty will not improve the decision-making<br />
process u<strong>nl</strong>ess the economic uncertainty is alao diminished.
656<br />
Concluding; remarks.<br />
The consequences <strong>of</strong> inadequate hydrological data on the<br />
cost and effectivepeas <strong>of</strong> water resources structures and pro-<br />
jects were assumed to have a parabolic shape in the data-cost<br />
space. The abscissa <strong>of</strong> the minimum point <strong>of</strong> thìs vertical<br />
parabola defines the adequacy <strong>of</strong> data.<br />
There are several methods for the evaluation <strong>of</strong> hydro-<br />
logical data <strong>with</strong> respect to their adequacy for planning. One<br />
such method using the preposterios analysis is presented in<br />
some detail. This method enables the calculation <strong>of</strong> expected<br />
opportunity loss generated by a program designed to obtain<br />
additional hydrological data, as well as the expected value<br />
<strong>of</strong> the sample information. If the expected net gain <strong>of</strong> sample<br />
information is positive, it is an indication that the existing<br />
hydrologic& data are insufficient.<br />
Cost-effectiveness <strong>of</strong> projects is briefly discussed,<br />
<strong>with</strong> some emphasis on its aspects regarding the flexibility in<br />
planning and the irreversibility<strong>of</strong> some design decisions. As<br />
an example <strong>of</strong> these asepcts, the Israel <strong>Water</strong> Scheme illustrates<br />
a planning process oriented toward increasing the cost-effectiveness<br />
<strong>of</strong> the system.<br />
Fi,nally, how to plan and design water resources systems<br />
<strong>with</strong> less th&? adequate hydrological data was illustrated by<br />
two examples. In the first example, synthetic hydrology was<br />
used to determine the capacity <strong>of</strong> the reservoir, but the design<br />
was sensitive to the type <strong>of</strong> model used to generate the synthe-<br />
tic sequence. The second example related to a ground water<br />
development project.<br />
Ref erences .,<br />
1. James, II, I.C., Bower, B.T. and latalas, N.C. (1969)<br />
Relative importance <strong>of</strong> variables in water rescurces planning,<br />
<strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Research, 5( 6), pp. 1165-1173.<br />
2. Matalab, N.C. (1968) Optimum gaging station location,<br />
Proceedings, IBM Scientific Computing Symposium, <strong>Water</strong> and<br />
Air Resource Management, White Plains, N.Y., pp. 85-94.<br />
3. Fiering, P.B. (1965) An optimization scheme for gaging,<br />
<strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Research, 1(4), pp. 463-469.
4. Hamburg, M. (1970) Statistical analysis for decision<br />
making, N.ew York, Harcourt, Brace & World.<br />
657<br />
5. English, J.M. (1968) Cost-effectiveness, New York, Wiley.<br />
6. Buras, N. (1971) Utilization <strong>of</strong> ground water resources in<br />
Israel, Atti, Convegno Internationale sulle Acque Soterranee,<br />
Palermo, pp. 674-680.<br />
7. Wallis, J.R. and Matalas, N.C. (1972) Sensitivity <strong>of</strong><br />
reservoir design to the generating mechanism <strong>of</strong> inflows,<br />
<strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Research, 8( 3), pp. 634-641.<br />
8. Mataïas, N.C. and Wallis, J.R. (1971) Statistical pro-<br />
perties <strong>of</strong> multivariate fractional noise processes, <strong>Water</strong><br />
<strong>Resources</strong> Research, 7( 6), pp. 1460 - 1468.<br />
9. Maddock, III, T. (1972) A ground-water planning model<br />
basis for a data collection network, International Symposium<br />
on Uncertainties in Hydrologic and <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> Systems,<br />
Tucson, Arizonp, pp. 6.3-1 - 6.3-26.
658<br />
cost,<br />
Monetary<br />
Units<br />
~~ ~ ~~~<br />
Amount <strong>of</strong> hydrological data<br />
Figure 1. The data-cost space.
\<br />
3<br />
R. A<br />
Figure 2.<br />
o. 20/0<br />
659<br />
Decision diagram for preposterior analysis, MMU.
OPTIMIZATION OF WATER RESOURC ES DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS<br />
ZN CASE OF INARE2UATE HYDROLOGIC VATA.<br />
A. Filetti' ) , G. Faank ' 1, C. Pahvuleb eu' ' I<br />
Bucuhebti, Romania<br />
----<br />
I n t h o d u c t i o n .<br />
The phoblemb which have to be bolved by hydhaulic<br />
engineeh4 ahe 06 g hed diveaitq and deeibionb in theih<br />
dieldb o 6 actiuity o@en imply a conbidehable hen ponb abi-<br />
lity, not o<strong>nl</strong>y in hebpect to the economic conbequenceb,<br />
but albo to the bocial and ecologic eddectb 06 buch de-<br />
cibionb. Being heeded to the mabtehing 06 cehtain natuh-<br />
al phenomena, mobtly huled by btochabtic lam, the con-<br />
ception as well a¿ the opehation od wateh hebouhceb de-<br />
velopment dthuctuheb depend on the deghee od knowledge a-<br />
vailable on natuhal data, ebpecially on thobe helated to<br />
hydhologic euenth. The hydhologic hecohdb necebbahy to<br />
hydaaufic engineehs ahc not condined to data &elated to<br />
liquid blow, though data 06 thib type ahe ebbenaal doh<br />
theih acLluity, but ah0 concehn bed-load phocebbeb ,hiveh<br />
and bank dynamics, wintea phenomena etc. Euidently,due to<br />
the aleatohq chahactes ob mobt hydhologic occuhenceb,even<br />
long ~recohdb 04 pat hydhologic phenomena cannot oddeh an<br />
abbolute baáety a¿ hegahdb avoiding ehhohb and deviation<br />
@om the altehnaZiue which could be phoved ab optimal. lt<br />
,i¿ neuehthelesb unanimoubly accepted that, ab the volume<br />
and quality 06 in6ohmation on tlecohded hydhologie events<br />
incheas eh, in conditionb o 6 i tlb cohhect intehphetation,<br />
the phobability 06 cohhect ebtimation od dutute occuhencc<br />
ob hydirologic phenomena inchease4 and, a2 the bame time,<br />
the hhkb abbumed in taking deCihion6 decaease.<br />
~<br />
'1 Vocto~-Engineeh,ChCed Engineeh od the Rebeahch and Ve-<br />
bign Inbtitute doh Wateir RebOuhCeb Engineehing.<br />
I') Engineea, Team leadeh at the Inbtitute doh tlydsoetec-<br />
thic SXudied and Vebign.<br />
11') Voctak-Engineeh, Section leadeh at the Rebeakeh and<br />
Debign Indtitute doh Wateh Reb ouhceb Engineehing .
66 2<br />
It muAt be undeiraned that the indluence 06 incom-<br />
plete hydirologic data on the pobbibieity 06 coirirectlg de-<br />
teamining the technological, duncL¿onal and economic pa-<br />
irameteu 06 wateir heb ouirceb development piroject¿ depend¿<br />
in gheat meabuhe to the hydirologic chahacteh 06 the iriuez<br />
bain, on the natuire 06 wateir Ubeb, on the type 06 bthuC-<br />
tuheb etc. Theaedohe,any opL¿mizaL¿on method mubt be con-<br />
bidehed in the fight od the condition4 in which thib me-<br />
thod ib apptied; the bpecidic 4itUafiOnb and the tenden-<br />
cieb in bolving the phoblemb menaoncd in thib papeh must<br />
be looked at o<strong>nl</strong>y ab typical exampleb.<br />
Undeh conditionb o6 incomplete hydhologic indoirmat-<br />
ion, the methodb Ubually appfied ahe no longeir clbe~jul and<br />
it i8 necebbahy eitheh to adapt thebe methodb to the a-<br />
vailable data oh to adopt bimpleh phoceduheb which aire<br />
conbibtent <strong>with</strong> thebe data. In belecting buch methodb,<br />
6oÆlowing itemb mubt be taken into account:<br />
- the methodb mubt mahe integhal ube 04 the auaila-<br />
ble volume 06 indohrnaL¿on.At the bame L¿me it mubt<br />
be kept in mind ithat no phocebbing id able to cire-<br />
ate quantitatively new in~ohmation and thehedoh it<br />
lb ubetebb to thy genehafing in6ohrnat.ion not con-<br />
tained in the basic data;<br />
- bebideh hydhologic data irecoirded in the aiueir ba-<br />
din bubject to analybib, it i4 pobbible to take<br />
advantage 06 additional indohmaL¿on irecoirded in<br />
neighbouhing hiveir babinb. Indihect hydirology may<br />
be ubed ebpecially in ohdeir to obtain quafitufive<br />
indohmation hegairding the beabona1 oh annual dib-<br />
thibufion 06 dlow, the pobbibifity od occuirence 06<br />
cehtain hydhologic phenomena in vaaiou4 pehiodb od<br />
the yeah, etc;<br />
- the method mut not lead to an ampfi6icaLLon od<br />
ehhou od the hydhologic basic data but,ab much ab<br />
pobbible to theiir attenuation.<br />
A gheat diveuity 06 bituationb exibtb conceirning a-<br />
vailable hydhologic data, covehing the whole dietd dirom
663<br />
total lack to an acceptable volume od in6okmation. Theke-<br />
dohe, tkying to bet up cefitain methodb o6 gcneaat appbic-<br />
ation ib haadly to be hecommended. In painciple, it<br />
would be make cokhect to talk about gkoupb ok typed 06<br />
methodo having a common p~ncipîe. Thebe have to be adap-<br />
ted to concirete conditionb and objectiveb 06 each inveb-<br />
tigated pkoject. The methods which can be appLied in cabe<br />
06 inadequate hydkological data may be ceabbidied ab dol-<br />
LoWb :<br />
- methodb baoed on the genekation 06 bynthetic hy-<br />
dkologic bequenceb, btakting ('ron1 given btatibtic-<br />
al pazameteu od hydkologic phenomena [ Monte Cak-<br />
to methods);<br />
- methodo based on the genekation 06 hydhologic be-<br />
quenceb by comelation <strong>with</strong> kaindall data;<br />
- method¿ based on the genehalization o6 kebultb od<br />
watea he6 oukceo engineeking computation4 ;<br />
- methods based on the theoky od gameb.<br />
Thib kepoht intend6 to pkebent the wayd in which<br />
thebe method4 can be appaed'in dome key pkoblemb 06<br />
watek ire4 ouaced engineeking .<br />
Dimenbioning 06 kivek blow hegulating<br />
wokkh debigned dok rneefing ~atek<br />
demandb.<br />
Une od the mobt ubual paobtemb, cohkebponding to an<br />
incipient phue 06 watek keboukceb development, i¿ to ed-<br />
timate the capability 06 unhegulated UVC CM to meet u b e ~<br />
watek demand.<br />
The bolution od thib type 06 pkoblemb id based lebb<br />
on the detekmination 06 avekage @ow and dependendb gnea-<br />
tty on tow watehb and on chakactehibtic minimum valued 06<br />
dibcchakgeb; thebe valued can pkebent a gkeat benditivity<br />
to the quantity 06 available in6okmatiav1, to the methodb<br />
06 dikect oh indikect detekmination od dtow valued and to<br />
the degkee to which ba~ic data have been extkapolated.<br />
Theke6oke, the tack 06 adequate hydkotogic data and
664<br />
pahticulahly 04 batib dactohy hydhomethic hecohdb can be,<br />
in thh cue, the bouhce od impohtant ehhoh4. The w e 06<br />
cohhelative methoda d6 hibky, as the helative valueb 06<br />
low wate~ depend on the individual bupply 06 each wateh<br />
couue. On the otheh hand, the u4e o6 bimulated 6low beqU12MCe4,<br />
wually applied doh genehating mean monthly<br />
dib chahgeb, cannot be batib dactohy, bince daily valueb<br />
od minimum dibchahge can<br />
monthly valueb.<br />
conóidehably did6eh dhOm mean<br />
The dub-unitahy Ratio 06 minimum daily dibchahge to<br />
mean monthly dibchahge i4 wually bmalleh id the phobability<br />
o6 exceeding the dibchahge incheaeb and the buhdace<br />
od the hiuek basin decheaeb.<br />
The ehhoM which can be made in buch cabe4 can be<br />
one 06 the dollowing:<br />
- oueh-evalua-ting available low dlow,which can lead<br />
to a bmalleh phobability od being able to meet<br />
wateh demand od ue~; thib phobabifity might not<br />
be acceptable becaube 06 the excebbive lobbeb due<br />
to dhequency and bevehity od wateh bhohtage. It<br />
i4 Wohth mentionning that in bome counthieb (as in<br />
the U.S.S.R. ,Czechoblouahia, Romania and othehs 1<br />
the phobabifity 04 being able to meet demand A<br />
ebtablibhed by btandahdb and A ,thehedohe, compulb<br />
ohy;<br />
- undeheualuating available low dlow,which can lead<br />
to a da&e conclubion, that the hiVeh i4 not able<br />
to meet demand <strong>with</strong>out blow hegutation and that<br />
a stohage hCbehU0ih Oh a diuehbion dhom otheh excedentahy<br />
hiueu h a to be budX.Thib would imply<br />
u4eleb4 expenbeb Oh, in the bebt Ca4e,UbelQbb immobifibation<br />
od capital.<br />
Ab wateh demand ghowb in compahibon to available<br />
wakeh hebOUhCQ6, the neCCbbahY deghee od blow hegula-tion<br />
incheu eb and mutationb emehge concehning the bignidicance<br />
06 vahiou categohieh od hydhologic indohmation. In<br />
thib benbe, the data helated to the auehage inalow doh
665<br />
longeh L¿me pe&¿odb: monthb, beabonb, yeah4 oh even be-<br />
quenceb ad yeau begin to play an ebbential pmt in de-<br />
tehmining the pahametehb 06 btohage hequihed.<br />
The indtuence 04 genehat hydhologic data on the va-<br />
tue 06 thebe puhameteu i4 heuealed by the geneaal phac-<br />
-Lice 04 wateh hebouhceb engineehb a4 well a4 by home<br />
Apecial hebeahch phoghamb. Thib inbluenee iA made evid-<br />
ent by invehtigating :<br />
- the genehat hetations between the chahacteaibtic<br />
blow panameteu and the bpecidic deghee 06 deue-<br />
topment 06 wateh hebouhceb;<br />
- the ben&¿tiVitLj od hebUltb concehn.¿ng blow hegut-<br />
dion at vahiou4 degheeb 06 apphoximation od the<br />
inadequate hydhologic data.<br />
Thub, a diut aspect 06 thib anatybib concehnb ihe<br />
cohhelaXion bemeen the main puhametehb chahactehib.tiC<br />
doh dtow dL¿thLbution: the vahiation coeddicient Cu, 2he<br />
coeddicient 06 bkewnebb Cb and the coe6dicien.t od sehial<br />
cohhelation ir on one hand and the net volume od necebba-<br />
hy ótohage hebehV0iJr.b and theih opehating policieh on<br />
the otheh.<br />
Vahiou4 sepohth conceaning genehatized Jab ultb on<br />
the connection befween thebe patameteu and the magnit-<br />
ude 06 the ove&-annual component 04 the nequihed btohage<br />
doh a given bade yield have been pubfibhed 111, 121 .<br />
Rebula 06 buch hebeahch ib beAt made evident by<br />
diagrramb phebenting the comelation between the coedtjic-<br />
iena a, p and B, 06 which an example ib shown in diguhe<br />
i. Following bymboeb have been uded :<br />
- a, the blow aegulation coeddicient 04 the deve-<br />
lopment, deiined ab the ha.t.io 06 the bade yield<br />
od the dtohage hebehvoih to the auehage dibchahge<br />
06 the wateh COUILA~ ;<br />
- p id the phobabieity od meeLing wateh demand, de-<br />
dined ab the &mit 06 the hatio 06 the numbeh 06<br />
yeau in which no wateh bhohtage appeau to the<br />
total numbeh 06 yeau invebtigated;<br />
- 0 c6 the btohage coeddicient, dedined ah the hu-
666<br />
tio 06 the oveh-annual component 06 Atohage to<br />
the avesage yeaaly dibchahge 06 the hegulated ti-<br />
Veh.<br />
lt mUbt be kept in mind that the bame avehage<br />
dib-<br />
chahge 2 could occuh in vahioub beqUQnceb 06 bingutarr<br />
dibchahgeb 06 the hivet; thib can be made evident by an<br />
analybd 06 hecohded beqUenCeb 06 dibchahgeb 06 hivehb<br />
phebenting vahioub Valued 06 the pahameteu cv,Cb and 4.<br />
Folîowing conc~ubionb may be dhawn dhom hebeahch deveto-<br />
ped in thib 6ield:<br />
- the vatiadon coed{i&ent Cv ha4 a dihect inblu-<br />
ence on the volume 06 the btohage hebehvoih, the<br />
Atohage coe6bicient B being the gheateh, the m o u<br />
the vahiation coe6,jicien.t incheabeb ; genehaîly<br />
the helaAive ghowthb 06 ß ahe gheateh, sometimes<br />
even benbibly ghedek, than the gaowth 06 Cv, i6<br />
the valuta 06 a a m high. On the con;titahy,6oh low<br />
valued 06 a the gaowth 06 the necebbahy volume 06<br />
btoaage in lebb hapid than the ghowth 06 the va-<br />
hiaiSon coe66icient [ 6iguhe 2) ;<br />
- the coe{,jicient 06 bkewnebb cb ha an inveme in-<br />
ence ce on the volume 06 the btohage hebehvoih;<br />
Zhu, i6 cb incheabeb the volume decheaseb coh-<br />
hebpondingly. Genetally, pehcentual heduciSonb 06<br />
B avre Amalleh than the pehcentual ghowthb 06 Ch;<br />
- the coedbicient 06 betial cohhelation h has a di-<br />
heet in6luence on the value 06 the btoaage; thub,<br />
the incheabing 06 h leadb to ghowthb 04 B, peh-<br />
centual ghowthb 06 both parrametem being 06 the<br />
bame ohdeh 06 magnitude.<br />
Similah conbidehationb can a do be made in connect-<br />
ion to the beabonal component lyemly component) 06 the<br />
heqdhed btohage. Evidently, in thib cabe, the coe66ic-<br />
Leni2 06 vatiation, o6 bhewnebb and 06 behiat cohhelat-<br />
ion mubt be based on daily, decadal oh monthly avehage<br />
dib chahgeb .<br />
A beeond inteaesting aspect concehnb the inbluenee<br />
06 the intehval taken in account 60k debign iday,decade,
667<br />
month etc) oh the Lime intehval doh which hydhologic data<br />
ahe ebtimated and wateh balance computations ahe undehtaken<br />
on the hequihed btohage volume.<br />
Vehy 06ten,waZeh balance id ebtablibhed on a monthly<br />
bad&, taking into account a bequence 06 mean monthly<br />
dlowb COVehing a pehiod 06 ¿evehat qeah4, doh which hecohded<br />
oh indihectly detehmined hydhologic dda ahe a-<br />
vailable. Thib way 06 dealing <strong>with</strong> the phoblem imptieb<br />
the assumpLion that the dhchahge od the Jbiveh and the<br />
demand o{ the ueh ahe baihey conbtant duhing a month.<br />
Thib asbumption ib neveh abbolutely cohhect doh the di&chahge<br />
od the hive&, nOh bometimeb {oh the Watch demand.<br />
ZnvutigaLionb undehtaken in thib 6ieÆd bhowed that<br />
in cehtain cabe6 the ,time pehiod taken into account hab<br />
a gheat indluence on the hebultb obtained concehning the<br />
volume 06 hequihed btOhUge.lt has been pobbible to utabtibh<br />
cohheîationb bemeen btohageb cohhebponding to<br />
,time pehiodb od a month oh a day ubed in wateh balance<br />
calculations. An example 06 buch an intehdependence ib<br />
bhown in biguhe 2.The genehat conclubion od the tedeahch<br />
i& tha.t bhoht pehiodb, o6 a day, mubt be ubed 46 badie<br />
ame intehvaÆ o<strong>nl</strong>y i6 the heqLUhed btohage,hebulted dhom<br />
pheaminahy computation4 ubing monthly UVehUge valueb c4<br />
Amall. foh gheateh 4tOhage volume4,the indluence 06 bhoht<br />
Lime pedo& id negtigeable.<br />
16 the invebtigation 06 lahge-bcale phoject.4 i4 undehtaken,<br />
u6e od 6 yntheLic stheam- {low bequenceb had<br />
btahted to impobe itbet6 even in cae4 in which the volume<br />
06 availabÆe hydhologic indohmation would have been<br />
conbidehed adequate. Stheam-dlOW genehation methodb,<br />
oh Monte Cahlo techniqueb, btah-t dohm cehtdn comphehenhive<br />
hydhologic PaharneteM buch ab avehage dibchahge,<br />
coeddicient 06 VahiatiOn, coe66icien.t 06 behiat cohhelation<br />
etc, ebtimated on the babib od a minimum 06 dihect<br />
hecohdb oh by genchalizing hebultb od hydhologic inveb-<br />
LigatiOnb in bimilah (Meu. Ahtidici& time behieb o6<br />
hundhed and even thouband4 od hydhologic yeau ahe genehated;<br />
thebe include a multitude 06 pobbible bequenceb
66 8<br />
06 day, wet and aveirage yemb, which condeh a high heliability<br />
on the hebultb 06 watch balance<br />
calculationb e<br />
and btohage<br />
Such methodb, babed on bynthea2c btneam-6low bequenceb,<br />
a m applied on a lahge ¿cale in the U.S.S.R.<br />
l4I,l5/, the U.S.A. 161 and otheh counthieb. ln Romania,<br />
1101 thib method .d being applied doh the btudy o6 the<br />
development 06 lahge hive& babinh.<br />
A hecent hebeahch 131 ib conceancd <strong>with</strong> the iniluence<br />
06 the length 06 the heal hecohd on the hequihed<br />
stotrage,in 06 a seasonal oh yeuly dlow hegulation.<br />
The teseahch phogham covehed a gheat vahiety od bituationh,<br />
including di66ehent typeb 06 dlow dibthibufion<br />
and bevehal VatUeb 06 berrial cohhelaZLon and btoirage<br />
coeddicienfi.<br />
The hebultb o6 thih hebeahch Lead to the conclubion<br />
(bee diguhea 3 and 4) that the hequihed btohage incheabeb<br />
<strong>with</strong> the length 06 the bequence. The inchease .&<br />
dabteh doil higheh valued 06 the behial<br />
stohage cae66icienh.<br />
cohhelation and<br />
Though thib invehtigation w a ~ concetned o<strong>nl</strong>y <strong>with</strong><br />
yeahly (low rregulation, the hebula obtained doh high<br />
valueb o6 the btohage coeddicient (maximum 1.0) phove<br />
that the length od the dihect hecohd and the bequence<br />
06 wet and day pehiod~ have a bignidicant indluence alho<br />
in the cabe 06 oveh-annual atohage.<br />
A bthiking example in this ben~e was uphedented by<br />
the evolution od btohage hequihed 60s the wateh bupply<br />
06 a big induthial plant in Romania. Wateh balance calculationb,<br />
6ihbt undextaken in the eahly 1960-ieb Wehe<br />
based on dihect dlow hecohdb covehing o<strong>nl</strong>y a pehiod od<br />
15 yeah6, btmfing @om 1947148. Extending thib bequence<br />
by cohhelation <strong>with</strong> hecohdb in neighbouhing babinb genehated,<br />
intek alia, an exthemely dhy hydhoîogic yeair<br />
(/942/43). 76 thib yeah wab included in the hecohd ued<br />
a~ babib doh htonage calculationb, the hequihed btoaage<br />
wab neahly the double (220 million cubic meteu) 06 the<br />
btoxage which would have deemed necebbahy i6 thib yeah
669<br />
had not been included into the hecohd (120 million cub-<br />
ic meteu). Ab a matteh 06 dact, the additionat hecohdb<br />
06 the 6ottowing ten yeau beem to indihm the indihect<br />
data obtained doh the yeah 1942143; it wad thehedohe de-<br />
cided not to include thib yeah into the invebtigated be-<br />
quence when btohage caÆcutaL¿onb wehe again undehtaken<br />
on the basi4 06 a .tongeh dcquence 06 dihect hecohdb.<br />
In buch bituationb , behideb the ub ual methodb 06 ex-<br />
tending the hydhotogic time behieb by bimilahity <strong>with</strong><br />
otheh hiveh badinb, modehn techniques can be applied doh<br />
detehmining the optimum decndionb. A botution might be<br />
dound i6 the theohy 06 game4 id applied; the hecommended<br />
de&ion lead& in thib cade to minimum heghet, taking<br />
into account on one had the cobtb ad the btohage hueh-<br />
voi& and on the otheh hand the pobbibte damageb. Thib ib<br />
a cla6bica.î cade 06 a game againbt natuhe. Natuke’b se-<br />
action ib not indluenced by the phevioub dechion4 con-<br />
cehning the management od wateh hebouhceb and ib eitheh<br />
aleatohy oh huled by an asbumed pkobabilibtic law 06<br />
dib t&ib utio n .<br />
06 couue, the methodb based on the theohy 04 gameb<br />
do not bolve the inadequacy 06 hyditotogic data. Ubing<br />
them maheb howeveh the minimization 06 adveue e66ec.tb<br />
06 inadequate data po4bible. Theh~,joke, buch methods<br />
bhould not be phebented in oppobifion to thobe based on<br />
the genehation 06 new data oh on the genehatizaaSon o6<br />
cehfain heb uttb od watek heb ouhceb engineehing calculat-<br />
ionb. Both technique4 can be bimultaneoubly applied.<br />
One 06 the advantageb o6 the theoky 06 gameb ib the<br />
pobbibifity 06 taking into account any inadequate data,<br />
not o<strong>nl</strong>y od hydhologic chairacte& (do& example, data &e-<br />
dcilning to the dUtUhQ development o{ watek ue~).<br />
Noticing the ub e o 6 cohhelaLionb between hydirologic<br />
pahameteu and Othe& chahacteJùbtic elemenX.4 06 the hi-<br />
ve& basin: aveaage haindall, altitude, adtjoheAta,tion,<br />
btope etc. bome engineeu thied to ebtablihh genehatized<br />
helaZionbhipb be&een wateir heb ouhceb engineehing paha-<br />
meteu, buch ah the kequiheb btohage, and geo-meteoholo-<br />
gic elemena. Such hebeahch has been cashied out in Po-
670<br />
land. Methodb 06 thib type have, nevehthelebb, a limited<br />
appficability, geneaalizationb being pobbible o<strong>nl</strong>y at a<br />
®ional beale. They may, evidently, give a view on the<br />
bize 06 necebbahy Wdeh hebOUhCeib development WOhkb and<br />
can be 06 help doh the phefiminahy debign 06 ceht&n<br />
bmall btohage damb. Theih ube, <strong>with</strong>out a camparribon <strong>with</strong><br />
othes mom elaboaate methodb id howeveh not to be hecorn-<br />
mended in the inwedtigation 06 impohtant btohage. hebeh-<br />
VOihb.<br />
Uimenbioning od hydhoelecthic Noirkb.<br />
The utilization 06 wateh poweh id, evidently, hela-<br />
ted to the cohhect knowledge 06 the natuhal potential<br />
and o6 the conditionb 06 developing it. in thib conned-<br />
ion, hydhologic data ahe necebbahy not o<strong>nl</strong>y in ohdes to<br />
detekmine the genehal e66ect and edbiciency 06 poweh<br />
plana2 but albo t o ebtablhh the development bcheme, the<br />
enehgetic parrameteu and the charractexibtics 06 the<br />
bthuctuhes. Fah plana luith no btohage oh having a low<br />
deghee 04 6low heguldtion a6 well c~6 {oh the intake4 06<br />
becondahy watch divehhionb it can be parrticulahly impoh-<br />
tant to ebtimate c~hhectly the daily, and dometimed even<br />
the momentarry blow hégime. Condthuction 06 irégime and<br />
dlow dukation cuhveb , chahacte&ibtlc doh kelatively long<br />
pehiod6,may be necebbahy. Such cuhueb alre uded in ohdeh<br />
to ebtablibh the deghee 06 utilization 06 the avehage<br />
yeahly dh chahge and to detekmine the inbtalled capacit-<br />
ieb<br />
The value4 06 the hydhologic pahameteu mentionned<br />
in the phevioub chapteh: auehage d.ib chahge, coe66icient<br />
06 vahiation, coe6dicien.t 06 bkewnebb and coe6dicient 06<br />
behial comelation, ahe necebbahy in ohdeh to ebtablibh<br />
the inbluenee 06 vadoub Atohage volumed on the magnitude<br />
and quality 06 electtic po~eh phoduction and on the<br />
enehgetic conditions 06 btohage hydhoelectaic plan&. On<br />
thib bahib, the opfimization o6 the volume 06<br />
age hebehv~ikb cb aho podbible.<br />
the btoh-
FOR. mote advanced dlow conthol, the avehage multian-<br />
nual dibchakge i6 the hydaologic etement whobe indluence<br />
on the economic eddiciency 06 hydhoelecthic plant6 i4<br />
gheatest. In paht, thi6 ib due al60 to the opehation 06<br />
hydhoeÆecthic plana2 <strong>with</strong>in 6taong poweh dydtemb , genehal-<br />
ly <strong>with</strong> inteknational linkd. In buch 6Ybtem4, the e66ect<br />
o 6 individual hydaologic 6ituationd i6 attenuated and the<br />
whole hydhoelecthic poweh available can actually be uded<br />
in the dybtem, even id o<strong>nl</strong>y doh the dilling o6 the hebeh-<br />
voim 06 pumped 6tohage powek plana.<br />
Re6eahch on the indluence 06 the length 06 the hecoird<br />
on the value 06 the aveirage dibchahge hevealed that,<br />
604 m o ~ t eutopean wateh couh6e6, time behie6 covehing a<br />
dequence 06 30 yeam ahe u6ually batihbactohy. Conclubiond<br />
Reached at in inve6tigating data concehning the a-<br />
veaage didchaqe doh Recoaded Lime behie6 06 vahiou6<br />
length6 at the OIL6ova gauge on the Danube can be bahen<br />
a6 an example. On the basib od 133 yeah long hecoad6<br />
(1838 - 19701 the avehage value 604 di66ehent 64 . ~ e b 06<br />
a given Length, covehing 10 - 40 con6ecuL¿ve yeau wehe<br />
calculated and the highebt and Lowe62 value6 o6 thehe a-<br />
vehage6 wehe examined. The irebutRb alre phedented in the<br />
dollowing table:<br />
10 124 6090 4520 12.5 -16.5 0.36<br />
15 119 5910 4760 9.2 -12.0 0.28<br />
20 114 5770 4850 6.7 -10.2 0.22<br />
25 109 5660 5040 4.6 -6.8 0.17<br />
30 104 5670 5200 4.1 -3.9 0.13<br />
40 94 5650 5230 4.4 -3.3 0.11<br />
Thehedohe, i6 the hydhotogic data ahe not adequate<br />
doh the de6ign 06 hydhoelecthic developemntb, a6 a huÆe,<br />
thebe data dhoutd be extended to a 25-35 yeah6 long time
672<br />
behie, by analogy <strong>with</strong> othek watek couhdeb ok <strong>with</strong> kain-<br />
ball. longeh extenhionb 06 hecohdb by bimulation ate<br />
veky kcvrely applied.<br />
Debign and opehation 06 blood<br />
conakol developmenth .<br />
Flood canx7ca.t developmen;td ake kelated not o<strong>nl</strong>y to<br />
economic bene6itb but aedo to the becuhity 06 bocial<br />
Lide in wide axeab. At the same time, ab álood conthol<br />
bthuctuheb ane debigned to {ace hydhologic bituatioptb<br />
exceeding extheme hibtohicaî hecohdb, the ube 06 cxthe-<br />
mely accuhate data ib, in phinciple, necebbahy.<br />
A ptoblem ahibing most dhequently id helated to the<br />
debign 06 outle& o6 6low hegulating bthuctuheb. Othe&<br />
impoatant phoblemb, buch ab the debign ,od bhidgeb oh 06<br />
othes btkuctuheb chobbing hivetb, 06 dykeb and 06 blood<br />
detenfion hehehvoitb axe aedo helated to dlood hydhol-<br />
OgY *<br />
Except vehy hahe cab eb, debign hydhologic conditionb<br />
have nevek been hecohded and have to be ebtablhhed<br />
by bpecLal computationb. In thih hebpect, ,two tendencieb<br />
may be kemairhed:<br />
- the extkapolation 06 phobabifity dibtkibufion<br />
cuhvcb 06 maximum aecokded ,$toodb ubing mathematical<br />
btatibticat methodb; thib extkapolation has<br />
to keach imposed debign paobabilitiea . Othe& methodb,<br />
ubed in o.theh hydhologic pkoblemb 6011 the<br />
extension 06 tecohded fime bekieb ,buch ab bynthefie<br />
blow genekation,ubing Monte-Cakto techniqueb.<br />
MQ applied at a bah amalleh bcale bok 6lood conak0l;<br />
- the geneha~on 06 valueb 06 maximum dibchakgeb<br />
and 06 ,$laod waveb by hain6altlhun-od6 cohhelation;<br />
thib apphoach thiea to compenbate the lack<br />
06 hydhologic data by uning hain{all oh Othe& metheohologic<br />
magnituded doh which, UA ually, longea<br />
hecohdb ake available. ln theih dimplest 60hm,
67 3<br />
thebe methodb hephe4enZ ha.in6attlhun-od6 depen-<br />
dencie6 which have been wed doh a long time in<br />
hydhologic indihect btudie6 .Duhing the lut yeah6<br />
thebe methodb have been extended, 6ohmeh 6impte<br />
dependencieb being developed into phy6ioghaphic<br />
haintjalllhun-066 mode&. Thebe mode& have been<br />
ubed ebpecially in the U.S.A. and in Fhance.Theih<br />
eidiciency wab pkoved e6pecially doh the htudy 06<br />
dlood conthot phoblem6 .<br />
The majoh did6iculty haAed by applying genetic mo-<br />
de& conbi6t.h in a pheviou6 detehmknation 06 the pahame-<br />
teu 06 each model. FOh thi6 pukpo6c,aecohded dl00d6 ahe<br />
houted thhough the model. Theiredom, ube o6 h&n6all/<br />
hun-066 modeh implie6 the exhtence 06 a minimum o6 hy-<br />
dhologic hecohdb; it ib, howeveh, ju6t data on dlood6<br />
which ahe dhequently mi6bing @om hecohd6.<br />
ln the abbence 06 adequate hydhologic data, oveh6i-<br />
zing most dtood conthol 6thuctuhe6 i6 to be hecommended,<br />
even ifj it’6 con~equence i6 a ubete66 inve~tment o6 ca-<br />
pital, in ohdeir to avoid the hibh 06 ovehtopping and 06<br />
eventual bucceeding 6ailuhe od 6thuctuhQ6 181. Thi6 po-<br />
&cy h juhtidied by the exponential ghowth 06 the den6-<br />
ity 06 economic and 6ocia.t objecaXve6 placed in the ama<br />
in Which dtood COnthOt ~66e~tb 06 thebe bthUCtUhC6 i6<br />
he6ented. Eventual damage6 due to exceedence 06 de6ign<br />
pahameteh6 will Zhu6 be exponentially incheahed in compahibon<br />
Stood.<br />
to actual damage6 cohhehponding to the 6ame<br />
Thub, adteh the hydirologic excedentahg peiriod 06<br />
the la62 yeah6 and pahticu.tah.ty aóteh the 7970 and 7972<br />
iloodh, the conclubion wa6 dhawn in Romania that 6lood<br />
detention volume6 hebehved in 6tohage lahel, which, a6 a<br />
hule, Wehe phteViOU6ly 06 the ûhdeh 06 b - 12 % 06 the a-<br />
vehage annual blow a m knbuddicient; incireahing the6e<br />
volume6 in butuhe up to 20 8 06 the aveaage annual dlow<br />
i4 hecommended. Except 4 ome i6 olated ea6 e6, the execut-<br />
ion 06 hubrneuible dyke6 has been completely abandoned<br />
bivice 1960.
674<br />
In the debign 06 dyke6, the gkowth 06 blood levea<br />
due to eliminating the natukal deterifion o6 Blood in<br />
the dtood plain and to kiVeh bed dynamic¿, pahticulahlg<br />
the haióing od the base 04 ehobion, obbehved on many wu-<br />
tek couhbeb 06 the plain hegiOMb. At the tail watekd 06<br />
cehtain btohage kebehvoihb located in countkied <strong>with</strong> de-<br />
vem climate, inadequate knowledge 06 wintek phenornena<br />
may lead to undehebtimafing the backwatek phoduced by<br />
the mas4 06 ice and to undokbeen dlooding, .i6 no phe-<br />
cauLion4 ate taken.<br />
Finally, bok the cased whehe data on the genebis 06<br />
6loodb ahe lacking, it i4 pobbible to apply methodb od<br />
the theohy 06 gamed. Such methodb have been applied in<br />
Romania 604 bevekal pkojech 171.<br />
Some aspecÁ2 o 6 multi-puhpob e<br />
wutek ked ouhceb development.<br />
One 06 the chahac$ehib.i.ics 06 the contempokahy wa-<br />
tek he6 Oukceb engineehing conbibtb in the multipuhpob e<br />
and comphehen6ive development 06 hiWh buinb, <strong>with</strong>in<br />
an ebtablibhed development bcheme. VaGoub pko jectb ake<br />
phomoted a¿ bepahate deÜeÆopment btages 06 the genehat<br />
bcheme, all phojecÁ2 being based on unitaky methodolog-<br />
ieb and being conceived bo as to meet the kequikemenÁ2<br />
06 d l wateh ubeIL4 u well as 04 the COnthOl 06 deb-<br />
thucfive eddech 06 wateh. The btep by step development<br />
06 a hiveh basin i4 impohtant to the phoblem dibcubbed<br />
in thib hepoht because 06 it'd pobitive conbequenceb he-<br />
dlected in the pobbibility 06 cokhecfing emou, 06 he-<br />
ducing exaggehated hibkb and even 06 attenuafing bail-<br />
ukeb by the way 06 conceiving Bututre phOjUÁ2 developed<br />
in the bame hiveh basin. Thió i4 helated to the 6act<br />
that the unitahg management 06 the watek kebouhceb ob<br />
a hiveh basin cheateb a lebb 4thLc.t dependence 06 each<br />
phoject on the dibffkibufion 06 the dlow 06 the main hi-<br />
veh among vahiou4 thibutahieb and heduceb the benbitiv-<br />
ity to emohb in evaluating hydhaulic hCbOUhCe6 in each
675<br />
~pecibic bite. Thib i.4 impohtant, ab global ebtimation<br />
od the hCAOUhCeA 06 a kiveh bain i4 UbUal.& leAb hub-<br />
ject to ehhohb than the ebamation od the heAouhceb 06<br />
the thibutahieb. On the otheh hand,the btep by btep de-<br />
velopment o 6 bthuctuheA doh wateir heb ouhced management<br />
makes changed in the pahametea od ultehioh phojectb<br />
pobbible, Ao ab to COhJLect ~46ectb 06 Oveh oh undeh-<br />
hizing the 4-thuctuheA built at phevioub development<br />
A tag eb .<br />
In the cae 06 pkojecth doh which decibionb ahe<br />
made undeh condifionb od inadequate basic data, inveb-<br />
tigai2on 06 the pobbibifitieb 06 butuhe sxtenbion od<br />
bh’iUC~UReb d od gheat crteirebt.Such podbibilitied eliminate<br />
the necedbity 06 immobilizing capital doh the<br />
development 06 initially oveh~izc! d bthuctuheb, deaigned<br />
in thib way in ohdeh not to loo¿e the pobbibifitieb 06<br />
an advantageou dite.<br />
EhhohA committed due to inadequate hydhologic<br />
data ahC not fimited to the design btage o6 hydhaufic<br />
AthUCtUheb. FOh the conception od buch bthUCtuheb<br />
the lack 06 dihecz hydhologic data can obten not<br />
be avoided. 76 the implementation od an adequate hydhometeOhOlOgic<br />
6ohecabting nekwohk, including the meaAuhing,<br />
thanhmibbion and data ph0Cchbing equipment d advibable<br />
in Ohdeh to Opehate a CQhtLn hebChVOih, .¿A puhely<br />
an economic phoblem. In thib benbe, the technical<br />
oh economic analyAib 06 opehating conditionb 06 vahiOUA<br />
lahge Acate pkojech and the indluence 06 a good doheca6i2ng<br />
aybtem on theiir opehation Achedule4 lead invatiably<br />
to the conclubion that thebe Aybtemb<br />
culahly e 4 bicient.<br />
ahc pahti-<br />
Thib L¿ not o<strong>nl</strong>y the cabe whehe hydhaufic Aybtemb<br />
debigned 604 dtood canthot oh doh bade yield ahe addected<br />
by the lack od adequate indohmation oh dohecabzb<br />
at Auch exteint, that theih opehation accohding<br />
to b chedule d phactically impohbible <strong>with</strong>out imphovcng<br />
the indoirmational bybtem. The advantage id evident
67 6<br />
ado when a betteh knowledge 06 the phobable pahame-<br />
tehb o6 butuhe hydhologic even22 leadb o<strong>nl</strong>y to opehat-<br />
ional imphovemenX.6. Thib cb, doh inbtance, the cabe 06<br />
hydkoelectk-ic plana.<br />
An illwthative example 06 an in6OhmatiOnal and<br />
donecabX.ln9 netwohk concehnb khe lhon Gate¿ hydhoelec-<br />
thiC plant on the Danube. The wateh level 06 the bfoh-<br />
age hcbehVOih at the dam vahiable, opehating bchedu-<br />
&A phoviding doa an ab conbtant ah pobbible wateh le-<br />
vel & the tail 06 the Atohage hebChVOih, Upbtheani 06<br />
the IhOn Gates gohgeb. Thib policy cb due to the con-<br />
cenakation in thib ahea o6 bthuctuheb debigned doh the<br />
photection 06 hipak-ian land and otheh development¿,<br />
bthuctuheb which would be oventopped at higheh leve&.<br />
Conbcquently, the hydhoelecthic plant bhould hegul&e<br />
the wateh level & the dam bon an expected inblow, bo<br />
UA to obtain the maximum u.ti.lizable head, to avoid, U<br />
much ah pobbible, the 0vehhpit.ling o6 Waxeh and,& the<br />
bame time, to avoid the exceedence 06 the badety level<br />
in the photected aheu. Vue to a good dohecabtin9 netwohb<br />
on the Danube and on the main thibttahiebp upbtlream<br />
o6 the phojecf, it w u pobbible,even duk-ing the<br />
dihbt WO yeahb od opehaL¿ng, to hegutate the daily<br />
powea genetation in buch mannet that the deviaLion<br />
6hOm the theohea2ca.t optimu did not exceed 1.2 %.<br />
The utility 06 the exPendituaeh intended to bet<br />
up and maintain an adequate 6onecasLing bybtem, pahticutaaly<br />
<strong>with</strong>in hiveh bain6 whehe dlood deten.tion heb<br />
eh<br />
oiha ahe located has not any mohe to be demonsthated.<br />
Situation¿ may be met in which an inadequate opehation<br />
od OUtkkX.6 dhom Atohage hebehVOihb clln OvehpObe<br />
nohmally buccebbive blood waved, leading to an aggnavakion<br />
06 the bituation which would<br />
unhegulded b&eamb.<br />
have occuhed in
C o n c t u b i o n b .<br />
677<br />
The accukacy o6 the dolutionb 06 debign and opekat-<br />
ion 06 hydkauîic wokkb depend not o<strong>nl</strong>y on hydhologic<br />
in6akmation, bu.2 albo on the degtee o6 cokkect ebtimat-<br />
ion 05 a multitude 06 otheir 6actou, 60ir inbtance the e-<br />
conomic and conjectukal condixXonb ,the wateir demand etc.<br />
Thebe iactok obten aire much m o u uncektain than hydholo-<br />
gic evenh. in thib context, in cae 06 ceirtain ubeb 06<br />
hydkautic bthuctukeb, Auch ab hydkoelecakic powea pko-<br />
ducfion, watea tkanópokt, low dlow kegulaaon boa watek<br />
ueb, the hydhological in6oirmatian bhouLd be consideked<br />
in the hame way a6 othen uncektain basic data, the qua-<br />
îity 06 which h a a gtobaî inbluenee on the p04bibiti-<br />
ty 06 op~mizing bOLUtiOn4. in buch cabeb, the necebbaky<br />
accukacy 06 hydiroLogical data mubt be Looked at in cok-<br />
helaZion <strong>with</strong> the accukacy o6 othek elemenh kelevant to<br />
the decibion. Them ake howevea alho othek typed 06 hy-<br />
dkaulic b&uc.twreb,buch a6 thobe debigned 60k dlood con-<br />
thol, 60ir which global analybib 06 accukacy 06 basic da-<br />
ta i~ tebb impoatant and hydkologic data have to be ta-<br />
hen bepaately into account.<br />
R E F E R E N C E<br />
1.- PLESHKOV, 1.F. Reguliirovanija kechnogo btoba -<br />
GWdkometeoizdat, Uobkow, I96 1.<br />
2.- DYCK,S.; SCHRAMM,M. Stochabtibche Methoden 6Ük die<br />
Bemebb ung deb Wasb eupeichekhaumeb.<br />
- Mitteilungen deb in-<br />
AZifUteb {Ük W a b eir~ikt.6 cha@,<br />
Nk.28, BekÆLn, 1968.<br />
3.- STEGARUZU, P. CokectiiLe de debite zilnice in<br />
calcuîeÆe de gobpodairike a apeloir.<br />
- Hidkotehnica, Nk. 111972.<br />
4.- SVANIDZE, G.G. ûbnovy k a chety keguîikovanija<br />
aechnogo btoka metodom i\lonte -<br />
Kaalo.- Tbiîibbi, L964.
67 u<br />
5. L’EZNlKOVSKll, A.A.<br />
Vodnoenehgetichebhie ha6 chety<br />
metodom Monte-Kahlo - Enehgija,<br />
idobbow, 1969.<br />
Stheamdtow Synthedib . - MacMil-<br />
6. FlERlNG, M.B.<br />
7. - VORVEA, A. ; Fl LOTT i, A.<br />
lan, London-Melbouhne, 1967.<br />
PhObleme de gOdpOdahihe a apeloh<br />
CU aplicatic? la bazinul<br />
Bahlu&. -1nbtitutul penthu Planuhi<br />
de Amenajahe bi Consthue-<br />
8.- FILOTTZ, A.<br />
tii Hidtotehnice ílPACHl.15 ani<br />
de activitate. Bucutebti, 7968,<br />
pp. 85 - 96.<br />
Dib cubbiòn deb happohh concehnant<br />
la photcefion de4 eaux en<br />
9. - TEODORESCU, 1.<br />
ea6 de cûtabthûpheb. -GeWabbehbchutz<br />
im Katasttophen~all.Sympobnum<br />
vom 23 - 26 Ohtobeh in<br />
Flohenz. Födehafion Euhopäib cheh<br />
Gewabbehbchutz, Vol. 15, Ziihich,<br />
1969, pp- 92 - 96.<br />
Gobpodahihea Apeloh. - Ceheb,<br />
FILOTTI ,A.; CHlRl AC V.%ucuhebti, 19 73.<br />
10. -S?MON, A; Vl LAN. A GenehcZhea bihUhil0h hidhalogice<br />
daha aUtOcOhe<ie. - Studii de<br />
Economia Apeloh, Vol. 1. lnbtitutul<br />
de Studii bi Cehceta~<br />
penau Zmbunatatihi Funciahe<br />
bi Gobpodahihea Apeloh, BuCuhebti,<br />
1971, pp.311 - 366.
ß, 1<br />
IO<br />
Fig.1.<br />
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0.5<br />
. .<br />
0,s<br />
C"<br />
ß<br />
20<br />
LO<br />
1.0<br />
cv<br />
as 0.5<br />
. [r=45; c,=2c,<br />
- 1<br />
I5<br />
ZD<br />
10<br />
CV Ci I<br />
, ß<br />
C"<br />
2. o<br />
LO<br />
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20<br />
ZO<br />
'n<br />
cv<br />
2.0<br />
%O<br />
C"<br />
ß<br />
28<br />
10<br />
679<br />
C" CV<br />
0.5<br />
ß<br />
2. o<br />
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CV<br />
ß<br />
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cv<br />
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6 80
O /O0<br />
pigc4. Average required etorage a8 a function<br />
<strong>of</strong> record,for<br />
-<br />
different degrees <strong>of</strong><br />
regulation8<br />
c= 0,5 I r 0.3<br />
681
ItRELATIONS BETWEEN PROJECT ECONOMICS AND HYDROLOGICAL DATA"<br />
by<br />
A. Pobedimsky<br />
Economic Commission for Europe<br />
Introduction<br />
In e::ce;j:;, water ilhich is very <strong>of</strong>ten considered as a source o;" wealth, m y<br />
cause considerable damage or äisaster and impose a heavy burden on a country's<br />
economy. sorn&jimez it may affect a goup <strong>of</strong> borderine countries (as for example,<br />
those locate6 in the Danube and Rhine river basins).<br />
The accelzrating rate <strong>of</strong> population eowth in the EC3 countries and the<br />
economic proLpcss in Lechnologicrì changes, during recent years, causing the<br />
depletion <strong>of</strong> natural resources have all rapidly increased the importance <strong>of</strong><br />
water resources development which, curing the last few decades, hac, become one<br />
<strong>of</strong> the doninnting factors in the national economy <strong>of</strong> most stoLintries. All this<br />
has obliged countries to improve their water resources nanagement so as to achieve<br />
proper flexibility a d effectiveness corresponding to modern requirerncnts <strong>of</strong> national<br />
e conomie s.<br />
Mater Phnagement, deals o-lher things <strong>with</strong> a verj importent component -<br />
hydrological data which define the available water resources to me& national or<br />
regional demnds.<br />
The mtcliing <strong>of</strong> the bdznce or water resources md. neecls, as vel1 as the<br />
planning and implementation <strong>of</strong> eppropriatc masures to provide the nececjsa.0 liater<br />
cupply for a region, have become &ieslionr <strong>of</strong> hi& priority,<br />
The belances oi' water resources and needs mentioned above, which serve to<br />
elaborate the measures io be taken to avoid ne,r;etive c.onsequences for ths populaLion<br />
and the regional economy, are now Peing used as a effective tool in mqv LC3<br />
countries. The first internationa!. l4anue.l for the compilation <strong>of</strong> these balances,<br />
now beiny: completed by the ZCg Conrmi-kLeé on idater Problems g d groups <strong>of</strong> national<br />
experts, emphasizes that in regions <strong>with</strong> I.imited va-ler re::ouxces a high degree <strong>of</strong><br />
accuracy in their assessment is an essential condition ror e. rational economy.<br />
The E.'mual enphasizes the importtince <strong>of</strong> the earliest possible organization <strong>of</strong><br />
hydrological studies in a river basin or 8 region where an intensive growth oi<br />
uater needs is in prospect. ?he Phniisl defines in the following WP.~ the economic<br />
impact <strong>of</strong> reliable hydrological daCC. on ua-ter resources dcvelopnent in particular<br />
cnd on the national evonoq in gener<strong>nl</strong>c ?he more reliable the iiatter zupply, thi:<br />
smaller i.iill be the damage resultin, from cutr in periods <strong>of</strong> water shortagetf. By<br />
cornparin: losses anU expenditure, it vili, in prlnciple, be poosi'ule to determino<br />
the economic optimum.<br />
Sufficient and accurate hydrological data promote effective vater management and<br />
the prevention or didnuation <strong>of</strong> damage caused by such hydrological phcnomna as<br />
severe floods , ice jm, rnuàflotis, intemive oedirnents, dangerous va.ter pollution etc.
684<br />
On the other hand, the intensification <strong>of</strong> human activities in river basins<br />
r<strong>nl</strong> :,Lcii, watersheds including the increased anount <strong>of</strong> untreated effluents<br />
uic .liarged FnLo the water couse, during recen.'c decades, uraently calls for the<br />
re1iai;l.e esse:;smnt <strong>of</strong> available wa-tor resources. The ECS Nanual mentioned above<br />
states that the consequences <strong>of</strong> h w n activities make advanced hydrolo$cal<br />
research imperative.<br />
considered important.<br />
A relevant improvement <strong>of</strong> hydrological methods is<br />
5Je understand that this topic is <strong>of</strong> considerable interest to hydrological<br />
services which must strike a balance between tho cost <strong>of</strong> gauging stations and<br />
the probable futvre benefit that will result from the information to be obtained.<br />
TakTng into account the special importance <strong>of</strong> hydrological data for water<br />
resources management, various aspects <strong>of</strong> the development <strong>of</strong> hydrological networks<br />
were discussed thoroughly at the ESE Seninar on Selected <strong>Water</strong> Problems in Southern<br />
Europe convened in Zagreb, Yugoslavia, in October 1971. Certain conclusions<br />
concerning the design <strong>of</strong> hydrological networks and their improvement were<br />
reflected in the recommendations adopted by the ECE Codttee on <strong>Water</strong> Problems.<br />
Taking all this into account it is generally recognized that hydrological data<br />
and well planned hydrological networks are prerequisites for efficient and sound<br />
water resources planning.<br />
The purpose <strong>of</strong> this paper is to appraise the possible economic effect <strong>of</strong><br />
insufficient hydrological data on the effectiveness <strong>of</strong> water planning and the<br />
design <strong>of</strong> hydraulic engineering structures and their operation.<br />
It is suggested to consider the following main aspects <strong>of</strong> the subject:<br />
The economic consequences <strong>of</strong> a deficiency <strong>of</strong> hydrological data on water<br />
planning, construction and operation,<br />
"he impact <strong>of</strong> a deficiency <strong>of</strong> hydrological data on main water users.<br />
The economic consesuences <strong>of</strong> a deficiency <strong>of</strong> hydroloaical data on water<br />
P ~ construction ~ P and operation<br />
The following questions could be raised in connexion <strong>with</strong> this aspect:<br />
what is the extent <strong>of</strong> the economic impact <strong>of</strong> insufficient hydrological<br />
records on a project and its subsequent operation?<br />
in particular, what is the possible effect on investment in economic<br />
development if hydrological data are not accurate enough and the records<br />
are insufficient?<br />
is the predominantly quantitative character <strong>of</strong> hydrological data sufficient<br />
for modern intensive water resources development?<br />
is it reasonable to postpone the initiating <strong>of</strong> water project planning and<br />
the construction <strong>of</strong> water projects if the hydrological observations are<br />
insufficient?<br />
The available information on the experience and research in the ECE region<br />
shows the following facts which could be emphasized in an attempt to answer the<br />
above questions.
Economic -acts Qf insufficient hydrological data and difficulties caused at<br />
the key stages <strong>of</strong> water resources development:<br />
Mater planning and desim<br />
Generally speaking, poor hydrological data and forecasts made on this basis<br />
can lead to inappropriate proposals for investment in water engineering works and<br />
the economic development <strong>of</strong> the region concerned.<br />
The importance <strong>of</strong> sufficient<br />
data at the following staget <strong>of</strong> planning and designing can be pointed out.<br />
The elaboration <strong>of</strong> schemes for niltipurpose development <strong>of</strong> water resources<br />
is greatly dependent on accurate hydrometrical data.<br />
according to which a scheme is to be designed cannot be derived from incorrect<br />
hydrological data.<br />
The appropriate conclusions<br />
It should be underlined that possibilities <strong>of</strong> considerable miscalculations<br />
exist in preinvestment studies as well as in further stages <strong>of</strong> planning and design<br />
<strong>of</strong> engineering structures.<br />
characteristic river discharges, approximake methods and empirical fornulas<br />
are used and the length <strong>of</strong> time <strong>of</strong> hydrological observation is relatively short<br />
(considerably less than 30-40 years).<br />
They may be especially acute when, to estimate<br />
Taking this into account, approximate<br />
methods are being limited to the preliminary estimations for the elaboration <strong>of</strong><br />
schemes <strong>of</strong> development, but are not reconmiended for the design <strong>of</strong> water structures.<br />
Appropriate attention to this matter has been given in the ECL i.ianual<br />
mentioned above.<br />
Different research during recent years has also analysed the importance <strong>of</strong><br />
hydrological data for large scale, long-term investment for general economic<br />
development.<br />
The conclusions <strong>of</strong> some <strong>of</strong> these studies may be summarised as follows:<br />
It is considered that, if the period during which hydrological records have been<br />
kept is not sufficiently long or the data are not sufficiently accurate, then the<br />
investment in the economic development will be larger than is necessary, or the<br />
possible production <strong>of</strong> the plant will be less, due to its smaller size. In both<br />
cases the result will be a loss to the overall econon&.<br />
Experience shows that various hydrologic parameters could have economic<br />
importance for different stages and purposes <strong>of</strong> water resources development.<br />
For example - flow variability and drought occurence for the design <strong>of</strong> storage<br />
reservoirs; flood occurences for the design <strong>of</strong> spillways and other control works;<br />
lesser importance is attached to the mean flow.<br />
one a uthod<br />
However, as can be cited after<br />
r/ D. Johanovic. Abstract. Vhe Role <strong>of</strong> I-Qrdrologg and Hydromteorolow in the<br />
Economic Development <strong>of</strong> Africat! Ma, No. 301, 1971.<br />
2/<br />
K.C. Wilson Cost-benefit approach to hydrometric network planningtt <strong>Water</strong> Res.<br />
Research. October 1972.<br />
685
686<br />
Wariation <strong>of</strong> mean annual flow, depending upon hydrologic data, and length <strong>of</strong><br />
observation leads to overestimation or underestimation in determination <strong>of</strong><br />
sizes <strong>of</strong> water engineering structures, determination <strong>of</strong> regimes, capacities<br />
<strong>of</strong> plants, irrigated areas" etc.<br />
In fact the following implication <strong>of</strong> an underestimation <strong>of</strong> the mean annual<br />
flow in the planning <strong>of</strong> water resources developnient might ba indicated:<br />
(a) Smaller sizes <strong>of</strong> water storage capacity resulting in limited possibilities<br />
<strong>of</strong> regulation <strong>of</strong> flows <strong>with</strong> subsequent adverse impact on:<br />
(i) possibilities <strong>of</strong> self purification <strong>of</strong> water;<br />
(ii) availabilities <strong>of</strong> water supply for drinking and industrial purnoses;<br />
(Xi) potential <strong>of</strong> production by hydro-electrical plants;<br />
(iv) quantity <strong>of</strong> water for irrigated areas;<br />
(v) navigationaï capaciw <strong>of</strong> rivers;<br />
(Vi) inadequacy <strong>of</strong> water storage size:: requires additional investments for<br />
increasing dans, canals, etc. at a later stase.<br />
On the other hand, over-estimtion <strong>of</strong> inem annui flow can lead to the following<br />
implications :<br />
(i) oversizing <strong>of</strong> iiriter engineering strictures, low efficiency <strong>of</strong> their<br />
operation, larger investments in conparison <strong>with</strong> normal;<br />
(ii) insufficiency <strong>of</strong> water for designated irrigation area3<br />
(iii) energy production below planned target;<br />
(iv) lesser dilution <strong>of</strong> effluents discharged and slower processes <strong>of</strong> self<br />
purification <strong>of</strong> water.<br />
Studies <strong>of</strong> the value <strong>of</strong> hydrological data are being carried out in several<br />
countries. Comprehensive studies were conducted jointly by the United States Corps<br />
<strong>of</strong> Engineers and the Geological Survey (1970) <strong>with</strong> the purpose <strong>of</strong> evaluaiing the<br />
iiorth or" hydrological data for determination <strong>of</strong> the optimum water storage conserva.tion<br />
capacity. Some American researchers have developad a mathematical relation betireen<br />
the llworthll <strong>of</strong> data and the length <strong>of</strong> periods during which they were recorded.<br />
Some research has been carried out to estimate the possible loss due to<br />
inperfect information. The research, for instance considering optimal reservoir<br />
design, analytically defines the opportunity loss as the difference between net<br />
benefits associated <strong>with</strong> different hydrological data depending upon streamflow<br />
record length. Reservoir designs are obtained by simulating flovs and selecting<br />
that combination <strong>of</strong> storage capacity and target yield which gives the greatest<br />
net benefits. Graphic functions obtained by this research shou that opportunity<br />
losses decrease rapidly due to increasing the length <strong>of</strong> streamflow observation,<br />
achiedng very small magnitude beyond thirty years <strong>of</strong> observation; this conforms<br />
to many practical observations. Various types <strong>of</strong> reseaxch and observations show<br />
that the cost <strong>of</strong> obtaining addition& hydrological data i.e. increasing the length<br />
<strong>of</strong> observation is insignificant in relation tothe reduction <strong>of</strong> the esrected
opportunity lox.<br />
687<br />
Some CanaCZan research developing generalized computer programmes to relate the<br />
costs <strong>of</strong> operating and intensif'ying a hydrometric network to the resulting increases<br />
in the accurecp oi: the three parameters mentioned above should be noted.<br />
The available experience <strong>of</strong> differenct ECL countries confirms to an extent the<br />
conclusions <strong>of</strong> the research mentioned.<br />
-<br />
-<br />
As ior example in the USSR, it is considered:<br />
the economic benefits <strong>of</strong> the hydrometeorological service due to which the<br />
hydrological and meteorological observations can be obtained are a high as<br />
one billion roubles, i.e. 4-5 tines the amount that is spent on maintaining<br />
this semice;<br />
the introduction <strong>of</strong> the use <strong>of</strong> hydrological forecasts in national planning<br />
made it possible to raise by 10-15 per cent the efficiency <strong>of</strong> water<br />
installations and to obtain correspondingly higher pr<strong>of</strong>its2/.<br />
In the UnLted Kingdom and France, the relrvant benefits are estimated to exceed<br />
the national hydrometeorological budgets at least 20 timed.<br />
However, in many countries, especially in the developing ones, the povement<br />
agencies responsible for h@rological observations do not have sufficient funds<br />
available for the development <strong>of</strong> adequate nationwide hydrological network$. This<br />
insufficiency <strong>of</strong> financial resources for the collection <strong>of</strong> hydrological data was<br />
also emphasized at the ECE Seminar on certain uater problems, convened in Zagreb<br />
in 1971.<br />
The USSR experiences show that in the absence <strong>of</strong> hydrometeorological observation<br />
data in an area selected for construction, a special hydrometeorological investigation<br />
should be conducted <strong>with</strong> an expenditure <strong>of</strong> 2-3 thousand roubles for each million<br />
roubles invested. This amount is considered to be an econom if, as a result,<br />
sufficient hydrometeorological data proved to be available. Experience in other<br />
countries confirms that the expense <strong>of</strong> acquired adãitional hydrological data<br />
is much less than the losses involved in water engineering construction,the design<br />
<strong>of</strong> which is based on inaccurate data. In this connexion as a positive experience,<br />
a considerable extension <strong>of</strong> national and regional hydrological networks is taking<br />
place. It should also be noted that in some countries the application <strong>of</strong> automatic<br />
monitoring stations to control the quality and quantity <strong>of</strong> a river flow has<br />
considerably extended during recent years. This modernization increases the<br />
reliability <strong>of</strong> recorded data indispensable for accurate planning and design.<br />
2/ E.J. Tolstikov, Vhe Benefits <strong>of</strong> Hydroirieteoroloefc Services in the UcsRtt<br />
'dl40 Vhe Economic Benefit <strong>of</strong> National Meteorologic Services'World Weather<br />
Watch No. 27 - i968<br />
i/<br />
Richard D.A. Kill IXydrological and Hydrometeorological data as essential<br />
parameters for design or economic development projectsf! - ld4l Eo. 301
68 8<br />
In spite <strong>of</strong> the sound persuasiveness <strong>of</strong> all the research mentioned above,<br />
armther trend <strong>of</strong> research should be pointed out. Several studies and research<br />
have been devoted to Solve the problem <strong>of</strong> whether it is desirable and pr<strong>of</strong>itable<br />
to postpone the development <strong>of</strong> water resources or the construction <strong>of</strong> certain water<br />
cngineering projects if the hydrological data for the river or particular site<br />
investigated are insufficient. It is considered by some <strong>of</strong> the authors that, by<br />
postponing the construction, the realization <strong>of</strong> the net benefits <strong>of</strong> that construction<br />
is also being postponed.<br />
The available results <strong>of</strong> research conclude that the risk <strong>of</strong> such postponement<br />
must be carefully evaluated. Nore than that, some research clearly rejects<br />
postponement as a protitable course <strong>of</strong> action. It is considered that o<strong>nl</strong>y an<br />
exceedingly loid discount rate makes the minimum total cost <strong>of</strong> postponement<br />
e.g. for one year, equal to the cost <strong>with</strong>out postponement.<br />
Taking into account the definite discrepancy between these conclusions and<br />
those previously mentioned we feel that further research should be continued,<br />
emphasizing not o<strong>nl</strong>y purely economic aspects, but also taking into account social<br />
and technical aspects, including first <strong>of</strong> all the problem <strong>of</strong> safety <strong>of</strong> structures<br />
and subsequently <strong>of</strong> the population. The lack <strong>of</strong> unaniixi~iy, even in a purely<br />
economic approach, concerning the postponement <strong>of</strong> projects is to be noted.<br />
Some authors concludeb/:<br />
tlSince demand for project outputs is presumably growing over time, the more a<br />
project is deferred, the more quickly it is likely to be used, and the greater the<br />
benefits generated per time period <strong>of</strong> project life will be.”<br />
The conclusion seems to he very sensible.<br />
Pldn,? and desiminn <strong>of</strong> flood protection<br />
This cspect deserves special attention, bearing in mind that economic losses<br />
due to floods in the river basins <strong>of</strong> the world continue to be very high. Noreover,<br />
the further extent <strong>of</strong> the economic development <strong>of</strong> regions being threatened by high<br />
flows leads to further growth <strong>of</strong> economic damage from floods. Just one example, fron<br />
the experience <strong>of</strong> the United States, shows that the frequency <strong>of</strong> floods, causing<br />
major roperty damage <strong>of</strong> $50 million or more were increased aimst three times since<br />
19L&d Based on the currßnt status <strong>of</strong> flood control works and project conditions<br />
<strong>of</strong> flood pldm use and development the total annual floodcbage potential for the<br />
nation is anticipated to increase from $1.7 billion in 1966 to $5.0 billion in 20Zoz/.<br />
It is considered that, for elaboration <strong>of</strong> efficient national flood proLection<br />
policies, the data on distribution <strong>of</strong> river flow durine a year, asml1 as the exact<br />
characteristics <strong>of</strong> floods including maximum discharge, duration, tlme <strong>of</strong> flood end<br />
volume <strong>of</strong> the flood flow are <strong>of</strong> considerable importance.<br />
However, the determination <strong>of</strong> these characteristics becomes verydifficult if<br />
hydrological observations are insufficient, as was mentioned above.<br />
m e s<br />
Geophysical Union, bJashington D.C. 1971<br />
IfThe Nations <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong>11 W.R.S. United States, 1968, 5-2-2.<br />
1/<br />
\J. IIowe naenefit-Cost Analysis for <strong>Water</strong> System PlanningIl - American
Experience shows that the frequency <strong>of</strong> peak floods, determined on the basis<br />
6 89<br />
<strong>of</strong> a short ceriod <strong>of</strong> observations cm be several times lower than the adequate<br />
vdue, and that leads to considerable damage and to catastrophiee. The foll-owing<br />
consequences <strong>of</strong> inaccurate flood forecasting should be pointed out as regards<br />
water resources development and planning and designing <strong>of</strong> flood protection.<br />
(a) Overestimation <strong>of</strong> flood discharge - leads to unnecessary expenses in<br />
weter engineering construction;<br />
(b) Underestimation <strong>of</strong> flood discharge - leads to full dektruction <strong>of</strong> the<br />
sl.r.ucture, resulting in damage and possibly in loss <strong>of</strong> human lives in<br />
the region.<br />
Thus, proper estimation <strong>of</strong> possible flood peak, depending upon the quality<br />
and accuracy <strong>of</strong> hydrological data is very important. At the samc tine the<br />
experience <strong>of</strong> many countries still shows that: the continuing groi.rth <strong>of</strong> economic<br />
damage to individuals and to the national economy in many regionu <strong>of</strong> the world,<br />
caused by river floods, can be explained not oniy by the spontaneity <strong>of</strong> the flood<br />
phenomena, but also by the lack <strong>of</strong> adeguate organization, insufficient hydrologic<br />
observation and the necessary financial means, which very <strong>of</strong>ten are considerab1.y<br />
less than the value <strong>of</strong> the damage caused. Talcing this into account the ECZ<br />
Cohtiee on <strong>Water</strong> Problems has recently initiated studies on the available<br />
experience in rational methods <strong>of</strong> flood control planning in river basin<br />
development <strong>with</strong> the purpose <strong>of</strong> extending this experience to al1 ECd countries.<br />
In spite <strong>of</strong> the concept generally adopted that the development <strong>of</strong> sufficient<br />
hydrological observation is very important for the planning <strong>of</strong> proper flood<br />
protection and the organization <strong>of</strong> adequate operational measures to prevent<br />
considerable damage, nevertheless the available infornation from some countricc<br />
indicates :<br />
- a lack <strong>of</strong> reliable data regarding rainfall intensities and corresponding<br />
stream flow;<br />
-<br />
-<br />
insufficient studg <strong>of</strong> floods based on a detailed analysis <strong>of</strong> recorded flows<br />
so that water management authorities in some river basins or their parts are<br />
unable to arrive at more realistic estimates <strong>of</strong> expected floods;<br />
the insufficiency <strong>of</strong> the empirical and rather arbitarg methods used up to<br />
now in some countries for estimating peak floods; inadequecy <strong>of</strong> such methods<br />
has been proved and should no longer)%cceptable, in dew <strong>of</strong> the magnitude<br />
and importance <strong>of</strong> the projects undertaken.<br />
It is also indicated in some countries that from the point <strong>of</strong> view <strong>of</strong><br />
safety and also from the economlc angle, the necessity for current study and<br />
evaluation <strong>of</strong> the magnitude and frequency <strong>of</strong> the occurence <strong>of</strong> floods in<br />
connexion <strong>with</strong> the economic development <strong>of</strong> Tiver basins has become essential.<br />
The existence <strong>of</strong> dams in the vicinity <strong>of</strong> populated areas necessitates the closest<br />
study <strong>of</strong> the anticipated probably floods, in order to provide adequate spillway<br />
capacity for the safety <strong>of</strong> the dams, and the downstream areas.
690<br />
In some countries flood forecasts are not yet <strong>of</strong> the desired accuracy, thus<br />
increasing Lhe danger <strong>of</strong> economic damage or reducing the efficiency <strong>of</strong> water storages<br />
down the river, while accurate flood forecasting can increase the overall potentialitie:<br />
<strong>of</strong> a multi-purpose project.<br />
The disoytrous floods which occurred in several regions <strong>of</strong> the world in the recent<br />
decade, causing considerable loss <strong>of</strong> life an9 treinendous economic damage, pointed to<br />
the need to extenä flood forecasting and warning syotems in many countries, especially<br />
in their m.ìt vulnerable river basins. Relevant units established by national kjdro-<br />
meteorological services or by central water and power agencies confirm their<br />
effectivenes: It is considered that ths expenses for the maintenance <strong>of</strong> these unita<br />
is o<strong>nl</strong>y <strong>of</strong> mciest cost compared <strong>with</strong> the peins achieved by timely forece-sting. As<br />
an example, considerable economic benefits are accrued in mqv countries when flood<br />
forecast? nre usea to enable protective measures to be taken against the affects <strong>of</strong><br />
floods. In these cases, the economic benefits through iorecasts are caisulô.ted as<br />
the differenw between pr<strong>of</strong>its from proteoted zoner or areas.<br />
The use <strong>of</strong> flood forecasts in the IJSCR reduces the cost <strong>of</strong> damage äue (* floods<br />
by 20-30 per 'cent. merience in the Uni'reä -:-cates sonfirms that, the redudion <strong>of</strong><br />
flooe .iamagt aione would far outweigh the tow?. cost <strong>of</strong> .the hydrolo@.cai forecasting<br />
serviqe, including the proposed network.:-'.<br />
8,<br />
A:$ participants were informed at the<br />
Uniteu Nations inter-regional Seminar .,r, '?loo6 DamP-Ze Prevention Measures and<br />
Management, convened in Saptenber 1969 i,. Tbidsi, ITSSR, the annual savings due<br />
to the exlsting flood warning systems in the United States exceed $30 million a year.<br />
Experience in India also confirms that the early expenditure on the maintenace <strong>of</strong><br />
the unit in the central water and power commission as well as the cost <strong>of</strong> the necessary<br />
equipment - is o<strong>nl</strong>y a very moderate investment compared <strong>with</strong> the benefits which have<br />
been brought by forecasting.<br />
Importance <strong>of</strong> accurate data to show flow formation regardinp human activity at<br />
watersheds <strong>of</strong> rivers<br />
Attention should be drawn to the importance <strong>of</strong> strengthening research to analyse<br />
the influence <strong>of</strong> human activity in watersheds on river flow. It is considered in some<br />
countries that the euccessful design and operation <strong>of</strong> water engineering structures<br />
could be possible if sufficiently accurate data to show the hydrological characteristic<br />
<strong>of</strong> river basins under natural conditions <strong>of</strong> flow formation, <strong>with</strong> regard to the scale<br />
and direction <strong>of</strong> changes caused by humans, were available. The importance <strong>of</strong> this<br />
aspect has been emphasized among other publications by the ECE Manual mentioned in<br />
the first part <strong>of</strong> this paper.<br />
8/<br />
s/<br />
M.A. Kohïer (United States National Weather Service) Wasebook on Hydrological<br />
Network <strong>Design</strong> Practicet' - WMO No. 324, 1972<br />
Sh.M. Manshard (Central <strong>Water</strong> and Power Codssion) tTlood Forecasting and<br />
Flood Warning in India". Seventh Symposium - The Civil and Hydraulic Engineering<br />
Dept. <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong>. May 1971.
II. The inpact <strong>of</strong> a deficiency <strong>of</strong> i1ydrolopicai data on main water users<br />
The impact on the following water users is considered:<br />
(a) 1)onestic water supply<br />
(b) mdustrial water supply<br />
(c) Xydro-power generation and thermal power plant water supply<br />
(d) irrigation<br />
(e) 1knigation<br />
(f) Fisheries<br />
(g) in-ter pollution control<br />
Ex'üen3.ve research was carried out in i?ariy AC3 countries devoted to t'ne appreisal<br />
<strong>of</strong> the impact <strong>of</strong> a deficient river flow aroused, among other reasons, by the lack <strong>of</strong><br />
hydrological obsorvations and insufficiently accurate forecasts. One such research<br />
project has been carried out during -the recent decade 'by the central research institute<br />
on water problems in the USSR (btinsl~)~. Analysing dieierent nethodx <strong>of</strong> estimation<br />
for the appraisal <strong>of</strong> the impact <strong>of</strong> d<strong>of</strong>icient water flow, the authors indicate that, in<br />
so<strong>nl</strong>e case:, estbation becomes difficillt by reason <strong>of</strong> too 5hoi-t a period ol 1iyarologica.l<br />
obsemration:;. It is aïs0 pointed out that special estimation techniqucr to be applied<br />
in cases <strong>of</strong> short available periods oi hydrological observations, which could be applied<br />
for economic analysis, have not yet been created.<br />
However available results <strong>of</strong> research carried out in the same corntry suggest<br />
some methoas for use under conditions <strong>of</strong> deTiCient hydrological dataJ.<br />
11<br />
They atter-pt<br />
to find a relztion between the extent <strong>of</strong> limitation <strong>of</strong> the water siipply and the<br />
reduction <strong>of</strong> economic activities (e.g. the industrFal output) <strong>of</strong> a certain enterprize<br />
in order to asress the economic damage caused by water shortages.<br />
Domestic water supplx<br />
It is generally adopted that domestic uater supply does not allow in-Lerruptions<br />
i.e. the pyaranteed water supply for these consumers must be doze to 100 per cent.<br />
Industrial water siipply<br />
It is considered that the magnitude <strong>of</strong> economic damage connected. <strong>with</strong> stoppage<br />
or partial reduction <strong>of</strong> water supply is considerably influenced by the quality <strong>of</strong><br />
hydrological prognosis.<br />
Some researchers in countries <strong>with</strong> a centrally planned econoqv suggest to<br />
subdivide the dmages, as followsw:<br />
o/ 1.1. I-fechetov, V.N. Pluzhnikov, L.J. Popov IfBalance <strong>of</strong> <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> and Needs -<br />
the method <strong>of</strong> optimal planning <strong>of</strong> water ressurces dsvelopmentl~ Multiqurpose water<br />
resources development and conservation. Minsk. 196û.<br />
Ir/ V. Andreyanov IiInternal distribution <strong>of</strong> river flowl'. Gidrometizdat. USSR.<br />
Centrcrl Research Institute <strong>of</strong> <strong>Water</strong> F'roblecis. USSR. Minsk. "Miilti-purpose<br />
development and quality conservation <strong>of</strong> water resources" - 1968.<br />
6 91
692<br />
(a) direct damages (expressed by direct cost <strong>of</strong> unproductive forms <strong>of</strong> enterprises<br />
due to water stoppage or shortace);<br />
(b) indirect - measured by the loss <strong>of</strong> pr<strong>of</strong>it during the time <strong>of</strong> stoppage or<br />
reduction <strong>of</strong> water supply.<br />
The lack or insufficiency <strong>of</strong> research to define a relation between -Lhe extent<br />
<strong>of</strong> the limitation <strong>of</strong> the water supply and the relevant economic damago to clifrerent<br />
tLJhnological processes is being noted in some branches <strong>of</strong> production.<br />
Generation <strong>of</strong> electric enerpy by hydro-electric plants and themai power plants<br />
Proper flow predictions are important +o obtain optimum utilization <strong>of</strong> *dro-electi<br />
Timely 8n.d accurate ïlood forecasting in periods <strong>of</strong> lieais.<br />
and tharml. power plants.<br />
rains increase:. tlie overall potentiality <strong>of</strong> a multi-purpose project. Accurate<br />
forecasting is especially important bearing in nind tho fact that hyciro-power<br />
resources, depcnd on neteorological m u hydrological conditions vhich
693<br />
Il, is emphasized that not o<strong>nl</strong>x the entent <strong>of</strong> reduction o€ water supply is important<br />
here but also .the seasonal period <strong>of</strong> this reduction which could be -
69b<br />
pollutant to the river in a period uith lower flow could create dangerous pollution<br />
concentrzìions in the lower reaches <strong>of</strong> the -river. %u hydrological forecasting<br />
has therefore aezome more iraportant fÒP watcr quality control in the river basin.<br />
The other nspect - is the importahce <strong>of</strong> better organization and modern<br />
instmntation <strong>of</strong> water quality contrbl trg hyd.rolo~&cal sedces. The ECE Manual<br />
mentioned above gives particular at4ention to water- qdity/data and research<br />
simultaneously <strong>with</strong> hyàrological resáárch, reqtliring the extehsion and hprovement<br />
<strong>of</strong> the system <strong>of</strong> observations on water”qua1ity in streams and reservoirs.<br />
Information from the ECE countries, posticulariy diseussed at the ECE Sendnar<br />
in Zagreb, 1971, points out khat considerable improvement in these functions is<br />
being iqîemented in mmy countries,<br />
As regards the assessment <strong>of</strong> economic danage caused by water quality<br />
deterioration due to flow reductionsin rivers, including reasons caused by<br />
untimely and inaccurate hydrological forecasts, there are as yet no methods<br />
<strong>of</strong> assessment generally recognized or adopted. In some <strong>of</strong> the ECE countries<br />
it is considered that the infringemant <strong>of</strong> sanitary water conditions in a river<br />
basin, due to low flow, and the relevant damage dee economi=. assessment.<br />
Further comprehensive studies seem to be necessary in tlis field.<br />
The same is said <strong>of</strong> the economic assessment <strong>of</strong> the impact <strong>of</strong> water quality<br />
deterioration on water recreation. Correspondingly it 1s considered that it is<br />
difficult to substantiate economically permissible standards <strong>of</strong> concentration <strong>of</strong><br />
polluters in a river basin.<br />
However, there is no unanimity on this point. Research in some other ECE<br />
countries show Lliat the increase in the present value <strong>of</strong> direct quantifiable<br />
recreation benefits <strong>of</strong> inproved water quality, for example in the Delaware River<br />
bacin could be as high as $300-350 niillion for the highest water quaïity clase<br />
adoptadw.<br />
Sediment control<br />
In e:cicnding and further improving hydrological services and their forecasting,<br />
sediment control shodd not be neglected.<br />
Further water resources development and growth <strong>of</strong> human activity on the watersheds<br />
m e s quantitative and qualitative sediment data very important as a part <strong>of</strong><br />
hydrologic controls for different periods <strong>of</strong> the year. The iniportance <strong>of</strong> this<br />
problem could be seen fromthe experience <strong>of</strong> q ECE countries.<br />
It has been recognized by nany countries, that accumulation <strong>of</strong> sediments in<br />
niagy cases ohortcns the effective economic life <strong>of</strong> water engineering structures such<br />
as water-storagc ’, causes ii tensive wearing <strong>of</strong> pumps and turbines, requiring in all<br />
cases new capiti investments. As Is known, the problem can be grcatly mitigated<br />
by cidensive and complex control measures, including inproved forecasting.<br />
12/ A.B. Iïneese and B.T. Bower. AnaJYSeS conducted by the University <strong>of</strong> Pennsylvenia.<br />
Wanaging water quality’t. John Xopkins Press, Baltimore, 1968.
Experience in the United States shows that the damage from sediments to water<br />
management and national econow reaches more than $500 million a nnuala.<br />
Data on ice and slush ice conditions<br />
Inaccurate forecasting and warning ice and ice slush conditions cause<br />
considerable damage to hydro-electric plants and the energy consumers,<br />
causing reduction <strong>of</strong> industrial production in some <strong>of</strong> the regions <strong>of</strong> the middle<br />
climatic and rmuntainous zones.<br />
1.<br />
Conclueions<br />
In conclusion we would Uke to emphasise the following:<br />
Available experience and research being carried out in ECE countries clearly<br />
demonstrate the considerable impact <strong>of</strong> insufficient hydrological data and<br />
forecasting in all phases <strong>of</strong> planning <strong>of</strong> water resources development and use,<br />
which in their turn could have an *act on economic development <strong>of</strong> certain<br />
regions.<br />
2.<br />
695<br />
assess the value <strong>of</strong> hydrological data already have achieved certain positive effects,<br />
for example the development OP mathematical relations between the present value <strong>of</strong><br />
the value <strong>of</strong> data and the length <strong>of</strong> their record, as well as development <strong>of</strong> some<br />
methodology to assess the impact on main water users.<br />
3. Available research clearly shows that the cost <strong>of</strong> additional hydrological data -<br />
i.e. increasing the length <strong>of</strong> observation - is imd@ficant in relation to the<br />
expected losses due to insufficient data.<br />
in many countries, especially developing countries, are very <strong>of</strong>ten evaluated as<br />
inadequate for proper development <strong>of</strong> hydrological networks as was revealed and<br />
emphasized by different conferenoes.<br />
4. In spite <strong>of</strong> considerable research being carried out in ECE and other countries,<br />
as veli as various studies by specialized organizations, the following main<br />
deficiencies in hydrological observations and research are noted in different<br />
countries, which render a certain negative impact on water resources development<br />
-<br />
Available attempts in ECE countries to create and improve &.sting methods to<br />
and effective use:<br />
However, insufficient funds available<br />
the lack <strong>of</strong> reliable data on rainfall intensities and corresponding streamflowsj<br />
practical usage <strong>of</strong> empirical and sometimes rather arbitary methods for estimating<br />
peak floods; the lack <strong>of</strong> scientific studies on evaluation <strong>of</strong> the magnitudes<br />
and frequency <strong>of</strong> the occurrence <strong>of</strong> floods; insufficient studies and research to<br />
assess t h impact <strong>of</strong> human activity in watersheds on waterflow; lack <strong>of</strong><br />
special estimation techniques to be applied for economic analysis in cases<br />
<strong>of</strong> available short periods <strong>of</strong> hydrolo,.Lcal observations; deficiencies <strong>of</strong><br />
u "Xnvironmental Problems". Monograph presented by the United States Government<br />
to ECE. January 1970.
696<br />
available methods <strong>of</strong> long-tem hydrologi.cal forecasts; insufficiency <strong>of</strong><br />
research to define a relationship between the extent <strong>of</strong> the limitation <strong>of</strong><br />
,he water supply and the relevant economic damage to different technological<br />
processes; lack <strong>of</strong> generally recognized methods <strong>of</strong> assessment <strong>of</strong> economic<br />
damage caused by water quality detexioration.<br />
Strengthening <strong>of</strong> the research regarding the deficiencies listed above Is<br />
considered as important and urgent.