Calibration Report for the TPB Travel Forecasting Model, Version ...

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Calibration Report for the TPB Travel Forecasting Model, Version 2.3
Calibration Report for the TPB Travel Forecasting Model, Version 2.3 Chapter 1 Introduction This report documents the calibration of the National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board (TPB) Version 2.3 Travel Model. This report is to be used in conjunction with the TPB Version 2.3 Travel Model user’s guide, which is referenced at various points in this report. The Version 2.3 Travel Model became the adopted regional travel model for the for the Metropolitan Washington Region on November 16, 2011, when the TPB approved the Air Quality Conformity Determination of the 2011 Financially Constrained Long‐Range Transportation Plan (CLRP), since that analysis was done using the new travel model. Transportation planning at the regional level in the Washington area is coordinated by the National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board (TPB), the federally designated Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) for the region. The TPB is staffed by the Department of Transportation Planning (DTP) at the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (COG). COG is an independent, nonprofit association composed of elected officials from 21 local governments, members of the Maryland and Virginia state legislatures, and members of the U.S. Congress. The TPB coordinates transportation planning among federal, state, and local transportation agencies in the region. TPB staff maintains a travel forecasting capability that is used to support regional, corridor, and local transportation planning needs. The Models Development work activity in the TPB’s Unified Planning Work Program (element 4.C in the FY 2012 UPWP) is established to maintain and refine the TPB’s travel forecasting methods and practice on a continuing basis. The Version 2.3 Travel Model is similar to the TPB’s previous model, Version 2.2, in that it is a standard, trip‐ based model, often known as a “four‐step model,”typical of those applied by most MPOs in the U.S.. However, the Version 2.3 model is different from Version 2.2 in two key respects. First, Version 2.3 operates on a more detailed zone system consisting of 3,722 Transportation Analysis Zones (TAZs). This represents an almost doubling of internal TAZs that are currently used by the Version 2.2 model. The increase in TAZs will allow for greater sensitivity to land development patterns, particularly for areas of intense land development. Second, the Version 2.3 model has also been calibrated with an array of newly collected travel survey data. The primary data source supporting the Version 2.3 calibration is the COG/TPB 2007/08 Household Travel Survey (The previous regional travel survey supporting the existing Version 2.2 model was conducted in 1994). Version 2.3 also includes several additional technical refinements which are described in greater detail below. The oversight body of the TPB’s Models Development program is the Travel Forecasting Subcommittee (TFS), a subcommittee of the Transportation Planning Board's Technical Committee. The TFS is composed of representatives from state and local transportation agencies, local transportation consultants, and interested citizens. As many TFS members are active users of the regional model, the subcommittee has been engaged in all facets of the Version 2.3 development process on a bi‐monthly basis during the past few years. 1‐1
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Appendix A Model adjustment factors
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Appendix B Year 2007 mode choice su
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Appendix C Year 2007 mode choice ou
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Appendix C. Year 2007 mode choice o
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