Uncertainty Management and Risk Mitigation Over Asset Lifecycles

The question remains how to balance heuristics and high-performance computing
workflows and how to combine key areas efficiently. Which degree of heuristics is
essential and which contribution of workflow standards is acceptable? How can
we combine expert knowledge and result analysis from intelligent data processing
workflows? Which criteria exist for choosing the most suitable workflows and
which expert knowledge is required for choosing efficient and result oriented
workflow components? When prior uncertainty definitions remain vague; how
much do we gain from high-performance computing and what are the limitations?
Which workflows based on high-performance computing become an industry
standard and what type of synergies supported by heuristics is likely to become a
competitive advantage in managing complex projects?
Session 6: Risk Auditing and Standards
Session Managers: Roger Ekseth, Gyrodata
Michael Scanlon, Schlumberger
While oil and gas operations are by nature high risk ventures, no worldwide
standards exist for lifecycle risk management or auditing. Much of the risk
standards are set by individual corporations, local legislative authorities or by
insurance requirements. By comparison, the aviation industry sets standards for
operations and maintenance via IATA in order to consistently manage and audit
risks on a global level. Given the potential hazards inherent in commercial aviation,
the establishment of global standards of best practice, and risk auditing processes
has ensured that aviation safety has consistently improved.
The number and nature of relief wells drilled in the past year, the responsibility
of environmental awareness and the inconsistency of project performance tend
to indicate that the industry may benefit from a global standard that can be
effectively administered while acknowledging the inherently competitive nature
of the upstream industry. This should address not just the operational risk impact,
which are visible and potentially catastrophic, but also the longer term lifecycle
project risks in a consistent and auditable process.
This session will seek to discuss the requirements for global standards and audit
procedures for risk based evaluations and decisions, how comprehensive they
need to be, and how they could be implemented and administered for the industry
at large.
Session 7: Optionality and Pricing for Contingency
Session Managers: Micheal Scanlon, Schlumberger
Reidar Bratvold, University of Stavanger
In the past three years, the oil and gas sector has materially underperformed the
Dow index, highlighting the relative inflexibility of projects to changes and the fact
that our industry is not very well positioned to capitalise on market and technical
uncertainties. While contracting strategies and investment sanction criteria can,
to some extent, mitigate the impact of oil price fluctuations, the requirement to
commit to detailed equipment design specifications and significant associated
capital commitment very early in the project lifecycle when relatively little is
known of the reservoir makes it difficult to turn the underlying uncertainties into
competitive advantages and thus contributes to the underperformance.
The process of formalising the assessment and categorisation of upstream project
risks has continued to evolve. However, the communication of these risks in a
standardised way between disciplines, and a structured and consistent process of
establishing the value of contingency in the project plan and facility design, where
the contingency may come at significant capital cost, is not well established or
understood.
This session will seek to explore the principles and processes that will allow a
definition of the project risks and ways to value the mitigation of their downside
impacts and capture their upside potentials based on facility design specifications,
operating procedures and field management plans.
Forum Registration Fee: Early Bird: USD 3,400 (Payment Deadline: 28 October 2011)
Late Fee: USD 3,700
Upon acceptance by the Forum Series Steering Committee, applicants will receive a registration and hotel accommodation form with
detailed information on accommodation, transportation and fees. All participants must register and pay the full fixed fee in advance.
Includes the following for the forum participant:
• Registration to attend all nine forum sessions
• Five nights of hotel accommodation including breakfast
based on single occupancy
• Welcoming reception and dinner
• Scheduled meals
• Return ground airport transfer by shuttle bus
www.spe.org/events/11fsm2
Session 8: Communication and Propagation through
Lifecycle
Session Managers: Ahmed Al Neaimi, ADMA-OPCO
Iain Percival, Shell (Retired)
Effective monitoring and managing of uncertainty and risk throughout the lifespan
of the asset is critical to delivering the promises made at project sanction.
The operating philosophy of the field has been premised on any number of
assumptions regarding the behaviour of the reservoir(s), wells and the array
of equipment required to lift, process and export the produced fluids. Any
misunderstandings or misinterpretations of the assumptions and associated
uncertainties as the project is matured and passes from one owner to another will
inevitably put the full lifecycle value at risk. The situation is exacerbated when an
asset undergoes improved or enhanced recovery where the behaviour of injected
fluids in addition to those produced brings additional uncertainties and their
understanding/interpretation.
The 21st century has led to a new era of transformation in the automation of fields,
i.e. the advent of the “Smart Field”. However, one important question remains
unanswered. Will smart fields help reduce the uncertainties effectively and
efficiently during the lifecycle and thereby mitigate the risk of operational mishaps
and value erosion?
The session will focus on examining and discussing ways to improve:
• Communication between the functions involved with delivering value from a
hydrocarbon asset
• Ensuring knowledge is preserved with the passage of time with respect to the
rationale supporting the taking of certain decisions
• The understanding of the impact of living with uncertainty in one function on the
work and decision making with the various stakeholders
• The application of smart field technology and associated data delivery to address
effectively the issues of managing post execution/commissioning residual
uncertainty and risk
Session 9: The Human Impact and Mitigation of Bias
in Lifecycle Risk and Uncertainty Management
Session Managers: Ellen Cooper-Smith, Decision
Frameworks
Jonathan Carter, Imperial College
Studies across industries confirm that it is more common for actual uncertainties
used in project economics for asset management to fall outside of their predicted
ranges, than inside, and risks are continually underestimated. Many suggest this to
be due to both motivational and cognitive biases repeatedly resulting in commonly
stated ranges, which are too narrow. Hence, the human element in risk and
uncertainty management remains a gap which needs to be addressed to achieve
top tier performance.
But how? How can the industry tap into the “wisdom of crowds”–those who
know their assets and the technological risks associated with their projects and
help them counteract inherent biases to improve their uncertainty management?
What means are available and or need to be developed to ensure not only better
risk and uncertainty forecasting, but also better uncertainty reduction forecasting
when optimising appraisal and development plans? This session will review known
and cutting-edge techniques to do just that, enhance uncertainty management
through the human element, rather than in spite of the human element.
Please note: Attendees are expected to attend the full forum and
the fee is a fixed full registration fee. The base registration fee does
not include accompanying persons. Details of accommodation and rates
for spouses and family members will be sent with the registration packet
that will be emailed to each delegate upon acceptance.
IMPORTANT: All fees paid to SPE are net of taxes. The registration fees in this form do not include any local or withholding taxes.
All such taxes will be added to the above-mentioned registration fees in the invoice.
Forum sessions and housing will be at Al Bustan Rotana Hotel, Dubai, UAE.