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O P P O R T U N I T I E S M I S S E D, O P P O R T U N I T I E S S E I Z E D Preventive Diplomacy in the Post–Cold War World Edited by Bruce W. Jentleson CARNEGIE COMMISSION ON PREVENTING DEADLY CONFLICT Carnegie Corporation of New York ROW M AN & L I T T L E FI E L D P U B L IS H E R S , I NC . Lanham • Boulder • New York • Oxford
ROWMAN & LITTLEFIELD PUBLISHERS, INC. Published in the United States of America by Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc. 4720 Boston Way, Lanham, Maryland 20706 http://www.rowmanlittlefield.com 12 Hid’s Copse Road Cumnor Hill, Oxford OX2 9JJ, England Copyright © 2000 by Carnegie Corporation of New York All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Information Available Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Opportunities missed, opportunities seized : preventive diplomacy in the post-Cold War world / edited by Bruce W. Jentleson. p. cm. — (Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict series) “Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, Carnegie Corporation of New York.” Includes index. ISBN 0-8476-8558-6 (cloth : alk. paper). — ISBN 0-8476-8559-4 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Diplomacy 2. International relations. I. Jentleson, Bruce W., 1951– . II. Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict. III. Series. JZ1305.067 2000 327.1 09 049—dc21 99-27300 CIP Printed in the United States of America TM The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of American National Standard for Information Sciences—Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials, ANSI/NISO Z39.48-1992.
Page 1: O P P O R T U N I T I E S M I S S E
Page 5 and 6: David A. Hamburg, Cochair President
Page 7 and 8: Scott Feil, Preventing Genocide: Ho
Page 9 and 10: x Contents Part Four: Ethnic Confli
Page 11 and 12: xii Foreword known causes and seldo
Page 13 and 14: P r e f a c e a n d A c k n o w l e
Page 15 and 16: Preface xvii also appreciate their
Page 17 and 18: xx Acronyms DoD Department of Defen
Page 19 and 20: xxii Acronyms UNPREDEP United Natio
Page 21 and 22: 1 Preventive Diplomacy: A Conceptua
Page 23 and 24: Preventive Diplomacy 5 the preventi
Page 25 and 26: Preventive Diplomacy 7 There is no
Page 27 and 28: Preventive Diplomacy 9 deterrence o
Page 29 and 30: Preventive Diplomacy 11 and Jane Ho
Page 31 and 32: Then there is the question of polit
Page 33 and 34: Second is that we sought to include
Page 35 and 36: community as a whole. Whatever the
Page 37 and 38: Preventive Diplomacy 19 All of this
Page 39 and 40: 2 The Warning-Response Problem and
Page 41 and 42: The Warning-Response Problem 23 pro
Page 43 and 44: the tendency to ignore or downgrade
Page 45 and 46: s and troops had been ass embled on
Page 47 and 48: The Warning-Response Problem 29 The
Page 49 and 50: The Warning-Response Problem 31 Thu
Page 51 and 52: The Warning-Response Problem 33 The
Page 53 and 54:
The Warning-Response Problem 35 exa
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Part Five Rogue State Aggression
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296 Michael J. Mazarr balanc ing ef
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298 Michael J. Mazarr build an impl
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300 Michael J. Mazarr 1990 to 1991
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302 Michael J. Mazarr that level of
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304 Michael J. Mazarr Decisions on
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306 Michael J. Mazarr its later neg
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308 Michael J. Mazarr (Thus the eno
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310 Michael J. Mazarr Finally, the
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312 Michael J. Mazarr Yet what the
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314 Michael J. Mazarr Finally, the
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316 Michael J. Mazarr Bosnia,Ukrain
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13 Preventive Diplomacy: Analytical
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Conclusions and Lessons 321 portuni
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Conclusions and Lessons 323 interma
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Conclusions and Lessons 325 Baltics
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cient value to international actors
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essarily reducing foreign policy in
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Conclusions and Lessons 331 olence
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Conclusions and Lessons 333 Hutu go
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stressed in a study by Herman J. Co
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Conclusions and Lessons 337 as well
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Conclusions and Lessons 339 its uni
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Conclusions and Lessons 341 m acy a
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Conclusions and Lessons 343 this is
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Conclusions and Lessons 345 ternati
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Conclusions and Lessons 347 to disr
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Part Two The Dissolution of the Sov
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40 Gail W. Lapidus homeless numberi
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42 Gail W. Lapidus The failed coup
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44 Gail W. Lapidus Grozny was not i
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46 Gail W. Lapidus Abortive Militar
Page 119 and 120:
48 Gail W. Lapidus Council made the
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50 Gail W. Lapidus With Yeltsin’s
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52 Gail W. Lapidus Early Warning: M
Page 125 and 126:
54 Gail W. Lapidus itself further e
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56 Gail W. Lapidus to attempt a mil
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58 Gail W. Lapidus itself in the po
Page 131 and 132:
60 Gail W. Lapidus To preserve a go
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62 Gail W. Lapidus The OSCE Assista
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64 Gail W. Lapidus conflict within
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66 Gail W. Lapidus was a major poli
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4 The International Community and t
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70 John J. Maresca encroaching on i
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72 John J. Maresca for so long been
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74 John J. Maresca 2. In this situa
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76 John J. Maresca baijan-Iran bord
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78 John J. Maresca Armeni an di asp
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80 John J. Maresca There was also a
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82 John J. Maresca Russia Decides t
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84 John J. Maresca positions withou
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86 John J. Maresca Budapest CSCE Su
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88 John J. Maresca in Washington an
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90 John J. Maresca Third, the most
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92 Heather F. Hurlburt security. Ef
Page 165 and 166:
94 Heather F. Hurlburt Two sets of
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96 Heather F. Hurlburt the 1990 OSC
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98 Heather F. Hurlburt the parties
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100 Heather F. Hurlburt West to loo
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102 Heather F. Hurlburt This was a
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104 Heather F. Hurlburt Results In
Page 177 and 178:
106 Heather F. Hurlburt time,but th
Page 179 and 180:
6 Preventive Diplomacy for Nuclear
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110 James E. Goodby Deputies, where
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112 James E. Goodby weapon state wi
Page 185 and 186:
114 James E. Goodby Ukraine alone.
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116 James E. Goodby the first four
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118 James E. Goodby rear- gu ard ac
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120 James E. Goodby supervision ,pe
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122 James E. Goodby that point in i
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124 James E. Goodby The outlines of
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126 James E. Goodby ceremony in Bud
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128 James E. Goodby confirmation of
Page 201 and 202:
Part Three The Breakup of Yugoslavi
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134 Susan L. Woodward priority on t
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136 Susan L. Woodward sovereign rig
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138 Susan L. Woodward bet ween Serb
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140 Susan L. Woodward minister) tha
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142 Susan L. Woodward (EFTA)—both
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144 Susan L. Woodward program of me
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146 Susan L. Woodward Slovenes wish
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148 Susan L. Woodward wanted to liv
Page 219 and 220:
150 Susan L. Woodward Confusing Con
Page 221 and 222:
152 Susan L. Woodward 1 9 9 0 ,more
Page 223 and 224:
154 Susan L. Woodward for Poland an
Page 225 and 226:
156 Susan L. Woodward all of 1990 t
Page 227 and 228:
158 Susan L. Woodward ter World War
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160 Susan L. Woodward of the countr
Page 231 and 232:
162 Susan L. Woodward Luka) as “a
Page 233 and 234:
164 Susan L. Woodward Strategies of
Page 235 and 236:
166 Susan L. Woodward example, had
Page 237 and 238:
168 Susan L. Woodward that created
Page 239 and 240:
170 Susan L. Woodward Prevention of
Page 241 and 242:
172 Susan L. Woodward they never ad
Page 243 and 244:
174 Michael S. Lund relations, Gree
Page 245 and 246:
176 Michael S. Lund and created the
Page 247 and 248:
178 Michael S. Lund could not af fo
Page 249 and 250:
180 Michael S. Lund and in Athens,
Page 251 and 252:
182 Michael S. Lund to relatively e
Page 253 and 254:
184 Michael S. Lund tion ,street vi
Page 255 and 256:
186 Michael S. Lund In fact, howeve
Page 257 and 258:
188 Michael S. Lund officials concl
Page 259 and 260:
190 Michael S. Lund Actors and Poli
Page 261 and 262:
192 Michael S. Lund country, the mi
Page 263 and 264:
194 Michael S. Lund agreement, the
Page 265 and 266:
196 Michael S. Lund explained the p
Page 267 and 268:
198 Michael S. Lund the price consi
Page 269 and 270:
200 Michael S. Lund even have been
Page 271 and 272:
202 Michael S. Lund inc idents was
Page 273 and 274:
204 Michael S. Lund cause several g
Page 275 and 276:
206 Michael S. Lund tinct but inter
Page 277 and 278:
208 Michael S. Lund repeated respon
Page 279 and 280:
9 Somalia: Misread Crises and Misse
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diplomatic interventions at several
Page 283 and 284:
Repression Another highly combustib
Page 285 and 286:
Misread Crises in Somalia 217 1993,
Page 287 and 288:
without the direct support of a sup
Page 289 and 290:
the Barre regime during this period
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Misread Crises in Somalia 223 In co
Page 293 and 294:
s eemed convinced that their time a
Page 295 and 296:
Misread Crises in Somalia 227 unres
Page 297 and 298:
yet another misreading of the Somal
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Misread Crises in Somalia 231 dilem
Page 301 and 302:
Misread Crises in Somalia 233 there
Page 303 and 304:
Misread Crises in Somalia 235 quite
Page 305 and 306:
Misread Crises in Somalia 237 porta
Page 307 and 308:
Failure in Rwanda 239 litical power
Page 309 and 310:
Failure in Rwanda 241 Force to over
Page 311 and 312:
Failure in Rwanda 243 were much hig
Page 313 and 314:
Failure in Rwanda 245 politics, wit
Page 315 and 316:
Failure in Rwanda 247 went along to
Page 317 and 318:
Failure in Rwanda 249 Secretariat h
Page 319 and 320:
Failure in Rwanda 251 ments, and Be
Page 321 and 322:
Failure in Rwanda 253 ognized at th
Page 323 and 324:
Failure in Rwanda 255 difficulty of
Page 325 and 326:
Failure in Rwanda 257 The Ndi aye r
Page 327 and 328:
Failure in Rwanda 259 and organizat
Page 329 and 330:
Failure in Rwanda 261 about 270 mil
Page 331 and 332:
Failure in Rwanda 263 curity Counci
Page 333 and 334:
11 Prevention Gained and Prevention
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Gains and Losses in Congo 267 the s
Page 337 and 338:
Gains and Losses in Congo 269 The p
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graduates, and dropouts, with Frenc
Page 341 and 342:
Gains and Losses in Congo 273 As a
Page 343 and 344:
Gains and Losses in Congo 275 to se
Page 345 and 346:
The details of the multiparty media
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cord created the foundation for fur
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First Domestic Preventive Diplomacy
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Gains and Losses in Congo 283 Third
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tience, perseverance, and continual
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Gains and Losses in Congo 287 tiona
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Gains and Losses in Congo 289 sures
Page 359 and 360:
Gains and Losses in Congo 291 Despi
Page 361 and 362:
Notes Notes for Chapter One (pages
Page 363 and 364:
Notes 351 23. Stuart Hill and Donal
Page 365 and 366:
Notes 353 Stremlau, Ted Raphael , J
Page 367 and 368:
Notes 355 torious competition among
Page 369 and 370:
Notes 357 34. This is the objective
Page 371 and 372:
Notes 359 14. According to official
Page 373 and 374:
Notes 361 Russian officials repeate
Page 375 and 376:
Notes 363 44. Emil Pain and Arkady
Page 377 and 378:
Notes 365 ian matter.”He went on
Page 379 and 380:
Notes 367 demned the atrocities com
Page 381 and 382:
Notes 369 9. William Korey, The Pro
Page 383 and 384:
Notes 371 ples, norms, and rules wa
Page 385 and 386:
Notes 373 1990, written by Martin v
Page 387 and 388:
Notes 375 sult in several fact-find
Page 389 and 390:
Notes 377 50. Xavier Bougarel provi
Page 391 and 392:
Notes 379 was completed in May 1998
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Notes 381 1992 and its declaration
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Notes 383 movement said it received
Page 397 and 398:
Notes 385 nomic gains through trade
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Notes 387 leaders who thought deplo
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Notes 389 72. Increased tensions oc
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Notes 391 (New York: Free Press,197
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Notes 393 clannism as a political r
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Notes 395 Barre regime to promise t
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Notes 397 • The RPF got the Minis
Page 411 and 412:
Notes 399 ( C I DA ,ODA , Country -
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Notes 401 bass ador ex press ed ser
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Notes 403 38. Eloquent accounts are
Page 417 and 418:
Notes 405 category of diplom acy. A
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Notes 407 33. Schroeder,“Rediscov
Page 421 and 422:
Notes 409 1966), pp. 69-74; Alexand
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Notes 411 “Third Party Techniques
Page 425 and 426:
414 Index Berisha, Sali, 182 Bildt,
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416 Index Davis, Lynn, 122, 123 Day
Page 429 and 430:
418 Index international actors (con
Page 431 and 432:
420 Index military force (continued
Page 433 and 434:
422 Index Rwanda (continued) 298nn3
Page 435 and 436:
424 Index United Nations (continued
Page 437 and 438:
A b o u t t h e C o n t r i b u t o
Page 439 and 440:
About the Contributors 429 Joint Ev
Page 441:
About the Contributors 431 Search f
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