あるホームセンターにおける季節商品の販売数分析

1
2006MI100
2
2.1
(
) 6 2005
2010 3 10
2005 23 ,2006
27 2007 34 2008 33 2009 28
2010 34 179 6
46 14
2006
2009 9 2 21 1
84
2.2
[1]
2.3
4
3
3
4
y()
x 1 , x 2 , , x p ()
2007MI001
y i = a 1 x 1 + a 2 x 2 + + a p x p + e i (i = 1, 2, , p)
a 1 , a 1 ,
, a p
x 1 , x 2 , , x p y
5
5.1
Y T
S I 3 1
3 10
23 1
0 1 21
1
5.2
Y (t) = T (t) + S(t) + I(t)
R
decompose()
Y (t) 3
Y (t)
SI(t) Y (t) − T (t) = S(t) + I(t)
SI(t) 23 21
6
145 6 1 870

6.1
1
1
, 1
145
5 6 1
7
7.1
7.2
1
1
1
1
7.3 1
1
7 1
1
1
A
B
C 1
D 1
sales
0 50 100 150 200 250
A
B
C
D
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
weeks
1
1
1
01 0.818 0.814 08 0.206 0.180
02 0.814 0.787 09 0.702 0.682
03 0.450 0.397 10 0.690 0.633
04 0.814 0.809 11 0.641 0.593
05 0.343 0.312 12 0.667 0.613
06 0.511 0.475 13 0.699 0.579
07 0.813 0.800 14 0.681 0.635
=
1
1 1
1 1
1
8

0.7
0.50.7
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.5 1
14 10
0.5
2
472 957
319 E
01 02 04 07
0.8
1000
03 05 06 08
0.5
100
100 05 08 0.312
0.180
0.590
3
sales
0 2 4 6 8 10
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
weeks
adjr2
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
2 A 060.491
9
E
0.486 0.5
C 0.561
E
6
625 319
0.561 0.647 E 0.1
0 1000 2000 3000 4000
sales
3
10
01 02 04
07 01 3 02
4 04 10 07 9
01 02
01
2
01

02 03
3
01 02 03
01
02 03
2
01 01 02 03
A 0.775 0.019 0.451
B 0.572 0.019 0.324
C 0.708 0.464 0.509
D 0.844 0.200 0.430
E 0.781 0.032 0.436
F 0.774 0.509 0.366
0.742 0.207 0.419
11
11.1
11.2
12
sales
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
0 20 40 60 80
weeks
4 A 11
4
4
3 1
4
13
[1] : , http://www.jma.go.jp/ .
[2] : R ,
2007.
[3] R ,
2008.