TEMA 1: La definizione dell'Input Sismico per valutazioni ... - ReLUIS

ATTIVITÀ IN CORSO
Angelo MASI Workshop DPC-ReLUIS-INGV Input sismico
ECEES 2006 - Common Session CS6
Early warning, shaking and loss scenarios
On Shaking and Loss Scenarios
A significant effort went during the last few years into research on ground shaking and loss
scenarios: besides national studies (e.g. on the cities of Catania, Thessaloniki, Lisbon), the EC
Risk_UE project (2001-2004) was entirely devoted to developing a European based approach to
earthquake scenarios and to applying it to seven cities directly involved in the project.
Within the ongoing LessLoss IP of the EC, begun in 2004, two subprojects deal with loss
scenarios and mitigation measures (for buildings and for infrastructure systems).
Ground shaking representations
Computational seismologists favour advanced source and wave propagation modelling to predict
the ground motions expected in an urban area.
However, especially in Europe, observations for calibrating damage estimations for large
numbers of buildings, e. g. through DPM (Damage Probability Matrices), use mostly
macroseismic intensity to describe shaking.
More elaborate approaches use nonlinear mechanical models to predict the performance of
engineering structures, and the response spectrum to represent seismic demand, but are not as
extensively calibrated as those based on intensity.
Under these circumstances, are synthetic ground motions generated by
sophisticated simulations really justified in scenario practice?
Should we not favour the simpler approaches?