LUMBER SHIPPERS -
LUMBER SHIPPERS - Continued from page 1 many steamship lines have ordered new, larger vessels and, as such, they will be adding capacity to the market. When you add capacity, you drive down your unit cost, and, as such, rates will either drop or stay stagnant. As a whole, shipping containers are not hard to obtain. There are certain areas in which there are chassis shortages such as Memphis, Columbus, Louisville, Cincinnati, Chicago and others. However, container availability is not as big of a challenge. Whether or not you can/will accept the price a specific steamship line sets is a different story, as the variance between the most cost-efficient carrier and those with containers can be quite large. Shipping volumes in Q4 vs the prior three quarters have sharply turned downward. We at AGL track shipments day-over-day, week-over-week, month-overmonth, year-over-year. Q4 is always a slower shipping quarter than the first three quarters of the year. November is traditionally very slow as you have Thanksgiving, the opening of deer hunting season, and typically relatively wet logging conditions as the ground has yet to freeze. December is always a difficult time with all of the holidays, and then inclement weather. I expect Q1 2023 to also be weak given the current world economy. However, I do not believe that it will be quite as bad as what we’ve seen in Q4 2022. Some of our clients have said that Q4 2022 was worse than when COVID first hit. I believe the U.S. economy will head for a mini- (soft) recession before slowly making its way back. Over the last two years, we have had cheap (sometimes free) money pumped into the economy, and, as such, many companies and end users were overzealous in their purchasing compared to what true demand was. It will be interesting to see what the Fed does with rates in the coming months. I think they are lagging reality and will hinder the economy more than is required to bring inflation back to earth. As a whole, I believe the U.S. economy is not as bad as is being perceived. However, I believe the world economy is in a tough position, and it will take some time to be strong again. Being in the export space, this does not bode well for exporters. Hopefully, I am wrong. u Curtis Struyk TMX Morehead City, NC 2022 was a very challenging year. Every aspect of the supply chain was broken: vessel space shortages, unreliable vessel schedules, container and chassis shortages, manpower shortages, port congestion, rail congestion, truck power shortages. Yet somehow, we survived all the chaos. We fought supply chain issues every day in 2022, the biggest culprit being unpredictable vessel schedules. Dates changed every single day which made it difficult to plan trucking, fumigation, inspections, loading appointments, etc. We must get vessels back on schedule so we can have dependability in the market. Thankfully we employ a group of intelligent, hard-working and detail-oriented employees who worked harder than ever to make sure our customers were taken care of. The life of a freight forwarder has not been easy these last few years and we feel the value we provide to our customers was on full display. The tides seem to be turning, and demand is waning, but we are still seeing the after-effects of a broken supply chain. Rates have started falling on both the import and export side. Export rates are still very inexpensive, so I predict the rates to stay depressed through Q1 and Q2 2023, especially with additional vessel capacity coming to the market in 2023. There are still certain inland destinations where equipment is very scarce. With import demand falling by 40 percent, replenishing inland pool locations will be difficult at times through the next year. WE MAKE BUYING LUMBER Continued on page 16 EASY We have more than 30 years of experience exporting North American hardwoods. You can be confident that your order will be shipped in the most efficient and economical way possible. We supply you WITH THE RIGHT HARDWOOD PRODUCTS. DELIVERING EXPECTATIONS WORLDWIDE 20 Million Board Feet of KD • 2 Common & Better Appalachian Lumber Species: • Red and White Oak 4/4-8/4 • White Oak Rift & Quarter 4/4 and 5/4 • Poplar 4/4-16/4 • Ash 4/4-8/4 • Hickory 4/4-7/4 Services: • 1,500,000 BF Drying Capacity • Surfacing • Straight Line Ripping • Gang Rip 2 Edges • Width Sorting (828) 428-5601 Lawrence Lumber Company Inc. www.lawrencelumberinc.com Joe Gori, Global Sales - E-mail: gmgori86@gmail.com • Steve Leonard, Green Lumber Sales - E-mail: sgleonard7@gmail.com Page 14 Import/Export Wood Purchasing News n February/March 2023 White Ash Red Oak Yellow Poplar Cherry Walnut Hard Maple White Oak Aspen Basswood Yellow Birch HAVE QUESTIONS? GET IN TOUCH WITH US! 819 478-7721 / 514 235-4319 ian@woodbox.net woodbox.net
