Southeast Business
Southeast Business Trends Ontario/Quebec Business Trends By Sue Putnam Editor Across the Southeastern region while all lumber sources agreed that their sales were slow, they each believe it is for a different reason. In Alabama, a lumberman said that while his sales have been steady, they have been impacted by the weather. “I expect to bounce back as soon as the weather issues are out of the way.” He noted that his sales are better than they were six months ago. “The economy is continuing to roll along, and the interest rates didn’t put the brakes on sales like we thought they would, as people’s inventories are low, and they are being forced back into the market.” His company offers Southern Yellow Pine in thicknesses of 11/32 to 3/4 inch and in grades A, B and C, as well as rated sheathing. He mentioned that he will sell to anyone that wants to buy from him. When asked how he thinks the market will continue to fare over the next several months, he said, “Hopefully it will continue to rock along, and we will be pleas- Continued on page 58 By Richard Lipman Guest Writer Noted an SPF manufacturer in Quebec, “Both Ontario and Quebec are still very difficult. Now that the weather is improving in Ontario, we're starting to see a little bit more activity there, but in Quebec, it's still very slow and that's a function of probably the economy as well. The lumber markets are much stronger in the US right now. They're about to turn around, to the positive, finally. Typically what would happen is our market areas would follow, but Canada is in worse shape economically than the US. I'm not sure how much it's going to step up. We anticipate that most of the sales and the growth, the price increases in the market, will come from the US sales at this point in time”. An Ontario producer reported that “regarding various grades, there's nothing that's lagging at the moment. Everything is moving well, so that is a positive. We are not necessarily concerned about the countervailing duty announcement, but it changes the strategy a little bit. In the mill’s mind, since the taxes will increase in August, again, they might as well hold off a bit. Most mills in Canada are losing money, a lot of money, so what we need to do is make sure that we get the best value possible for our production." A Quebec wholesaler suggested that “mills might try to limit their sales somewhat right now and try maybe to increase the volume of production a little bit closer to the springtime, meaning March and April and May, and closer to the duty change as well in August. This will be done to ensure that they track some better pricing, which is going to happen with the duties that are coming in the fall. An Ontario wholesaler felt that “what's going to happen with all the mills before that date in August is that whatever isn't sold is going to be moved in the US ahead of the tax hike. It is going be moved in reloads and yards and so on, to be able to offset the potential costs, the additional costs in a very difficult market in terms of profits for the mills right now." According to a Quebec manufacturer, “I would say that with the production decreases in SPF, especially on the Canadian side, with influence from the west and east, there's a bit better balance in the marketplace and as the year goes on, and the fact that it's a US election year as well, I think there's going to be less barriers to business. I think they'll want to control interest rates in the US better. Maybe not that they're going to decrease, because it's probably dangerous to do that now, inflation is not yet under control, but they're going to want to make sure that they create opportunity for everybody for houses. There's a deficit in housing in the US as it is in Canada and they'll want to address that if they can. So I think we're going to have a very good year, and the lumber markets Continued on page 58 Page 26 Softwood Forest Products Buyer • March/April 2024
