Værdikædeanalyse Ole Stegmann Mikkelsen - Energi på havet

European Offshore Wind Outlook
Dip YoY but Strong 2012-2016 Outlook
• Despite meager year over year performance within the
segment, growth is projected at 31% (CAGR) through
2016
• The U.K. and Germany will continue to dominate the
European market throughout the forecast period,
supported by strong targets and incentive schemes
• Lack of dedicated offshore incentive schemes in Sweden
and the Netherlands has slowed development in these
markets
• The French offshore tender is not expected to contribute
with new capacity within the forecast period
• Insecurity to the effectiveness of the post-2017 incentive
framework and weak financial performances by leading
turbine OEMs threatens pipeline realization in the U.K.,
and grid-connection constraints are delaying project
execution in Germany
• Thus, with the first tender of 1.9GW, the French offshore
market poses an interesting opportunity as a third hub
for European offshore development
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
MW
2011
European Offshore Wind Forecast
Others
Source: MAKE Consulting
Cumulative
Denmark
2012e
2013e
Sweden
Netherlands
Belgium
+31%
2014e
UK
2015e
Germany
2016e
U.K. and DE Account for 77% of New Capacity
Share of 2012e-
2016e Offshore
Forecast
UK Germany Belgium
Netherlands Sweden Denmark
Other Europe
© 2012 MAKE Consulting A/S. All rights reserved • Proprietary Material - Reproduction or redistribution Source: MAKE strictly Consulting prohibited
8%
2%
7% 2%5%
37%
39%
MW
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0