Revenue Forecasting Practices: Differences across Countries and ...

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Figure 1: Forecast Errors by Country/Institution CBO: US Congressional Budget Office, J: Japan, OMB: US Office of Management and Budget, IRL: Ireland, NL: Netherlands, D: Germany, CDN: Canada, I: Italy, NZ: New Zealand, B: Belgium, F: France, A: Austria, UK: United Kingdom. The figure displays the forecast errors for total tax revenues in percentage for up to thirteen years in each country, each point representing one forecast. Forecast errors for 2008 are highlighted. A positive (negative) value denotes overestimation (underestimation). The forecasts are arranged in descending order of the standard deviation of the respective forecast errors. The two US forecasts only refer to federal taxes. 5
Figure 2: Forecast Errors by Year The figure displays the forecast errors for total tax revenues in percentage for 13 forecasts for revenues in 12 countries. A positive (negative) value denotes overestimation (underestimation). The year at the horizontal axis refers to the year where the forecast has been issued. 6
Page 1 and 2: Revenue Forecasting Practices: Diff
Page 3 and 4: anch of the government is directly
Page 5: forecasting from possible governmen
Page 9 and 10: Table 1: Descriptive Statistics of
Page 11 and 12: Table 2: Forecasting Conditions Cou
Page 13 and 14: Another potentially important reaso
Page 15 and 16: executive branch. Some countries ev
Page 17 and 18: Table 3: Institutional Characterist
Page 19 and 20: Table 4: Determinants of Forecast E
Page 21 and 22: manipulation in one direction, whic
Page 23 and 24: precision of the forecasts can be a
Page 25 and 26: Table 6: Determinants of Forecastin
Page 27 and 28: driven by macroeconomic uncertainty
Page 29 and 30: A.4 France The revenue forecast of
Page 31 and 32: A.10 New Zealand The revenue foreca
Page 33 and 34: Gebhardt, H., 2001, Methoden, Probl
Page 35 and 36: Timing and Time Span, continued Ita

Revenue Forecasting Practices: Differences across Countries and ...

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