Bob Moore and David Jones, CEH Wallingford Clive Pierce ... - ecmwf
Bob Moore and David Jones, CEH Wallingford Clive Pierce ... - ecmwf
Bob Moore and David Jones, CEH Wallingford Clive Pierce ... - ecmwf
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Ensemble Hydrological<br />
Forecasting<br />
<strong>Bob</strong> <strong>Moore</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>David</strong> <strong>Jones</strong>, <strong>CEH</strong> <strong>Wallingford</strong><br />
<strong>Clive</strong> <strong>Pierce</strong>, JCHMR (Met Office), <strong>Wallingford</strong><br />
Overview<br />
�� Drought Management<br />
Flood Forecasting<br />
�� Present<br />
�� Future?<br />
��Flood Forecasting
•Historical rainfall<br />
ensembles<br />
•Categorical probability<br />
rainfall forecast<br />
weighting<br />
Drought management<br />
in the Thames Basin<br />
Thames surface water<br />
resource system
Risk assessment<br />
procedure for drought<br />
management
Risk assessment of<br />
reservoir storage shortfall<br />
<strong>and</strong> dem<strong>and</strong> restrictions
Rainfall sources:<br />
Radar: single site<br />
Radar: G<strong>and</strong>olf<br />
Raingauge<br />
Flood Forecasting<br />
HYRAD<br />
Rainfall displays<br />
Catchment<br />
rainfall<br />
Weather radar, first alert <strong>and</strong> flood<br />
forecasting systems<br />
FFMS<br />
Flood forecasts<br />
Decision support<br />
Flood Warning<br />
Dissemination<br />
Response
First Alert:<br />
Improved display of<br />
radar rainfall across<br />
scales; 0 to 6 hours,<br />
1, 2, 5 km<br />
HYRAD has been adopted<br />
as national st<strong>and</strong>ard by<br />
Environment Agency across<br />
Engl<strong>and</strong> & Wales
Unified NWP Model grids:<br />
global & mesoscale<br />
First alert warning products<br />
12 hour ahead rainfall forecast from<br />
Mesoscale Model, Nimrod radar actual<br />
<strong>and</strong> catchment hyetograph<br />
12 km, 0 to 2 days
Flow Forecasting & Modelling<br />
Radar / Satellite / Mesoscale<br />
NWP model data<br />
SHELL<br />
KERNEL<br />
MODELS<br />
Catchment rainfall<br />
Rainfall-runoff<br />
Channel flow<br />
Lake<br />
Updating<br />
Control Rules<br />
Water Quality..<br />
System (FFMS) Design<br />
Telemetry<br />
interface<br />
DATABASE<br />
Telemetry Data<br />
INFORMATION<br />
CONTROL<br />
ALGORITHM<br />
Report generator<br />
Graphical user<br />
interface<br />
MODEL<br />
CALIBRATION<br />
FACILITY<br />
REAL-TIME OFF-LINE<br />
Printer<br />
Fax<br />
User
1-REGION-ALL<br />
1-NONTIDAL-T<br />
1-NONTIDAL-N<br />
1-NONTIDAL<br />
1-REGION-N<br />
1-REGION-T<br />
1-REGION<br />
1-NONTID-ALL<br />
QX-RIDNGM1<br />
QL-KIRKNW1<br />
QX-WOOLER1<br />
QL-MORWCK1<br />
QX-STAMFM1<br />
QL-MITFRD1<br />
QL-CHESLS1<br />
QX-NABURN1<br />
QL-DONCST1<br />
QL-BEALWR1<br />
QX-ELVING2<br />
QX-TADCST1<br />
QL-WALDEN1<br />
QL-BOYNTN1<br />
QL-SCARBH1<br />
LU-CAWOOD1<br />
LD-HULLTB1<br />
QL-BYWELL1<br />
QL-TEAMVL1<br />
QL-CRAGHL1<br />
BCKPE-YSINE<br />
BCKRN-NPENN<br />
RF-GOLDSC1 LU-WOOLER1<br />
QL-ROTHBY1<br />
LU-STAMFM1<br />
RF-DARRAS1<br />
RF-WALLGN1<br />
QL-SUNDBR1<br />
QL-BURNHL1<br />
QX-VIKING1<br />
QX-ROTHHM1<br />
QL-WOODHS1<br />
QL-HADFLD1<br />
QL-ADWICK1<br />
QL-FLEETW1<br />
QX-METHLY1<br />
QL-FARRER1<br />
QX-CASTLF1<br />
LU-ELVING2<br />
QW-BUTTCR1<br />
LU-TADCST1<br />
QL-FLINTM1<br />
RADAR-HAMEL7064<br />
RFCST-HAMEL7064<br />
BCKRN-VYORK<br />
ST-LANGST3<br />
RF-STHELM1<br />
SF-LANGST3<br />
SP-LANGST3<br />
EV-WINGWR1<br />
COMRN-VYORK<br />
RADAR-INGHM6005<br />
RFCST-INGHM6005<br />
BCKRN-WOLDS<br />
ST-HGHMOW1<br />
XR-HGHMOW1<br />
SF-HGHMOW1<br />
SP-HGHMOW1<br />
EV-HGHMOW1<br />
COMRN-WOLDS<br />
RADAR-INGHM7033<br />
RFCST-INGHM7033<br />
BCKRN-MOORS<br />
ST-KELDHD1<br />
XR-KELDHD1<br />
SF-KELDHD1<br />
SP-KELDHD1<br />
EV-KELDHD1<br />
COMRN-MOORS<br />
RF-BROWNH1<br />
RF-RNDYMR1<br />
C1-BARMBY1<br />
C2-BARMBY1<br />
LU-BUBWTH1<br />
LU-BARMBY1<br />
LD-BARMBY1<br />
LU-BARMBY2<br />
LU-SELBYB1<br />
LU-BOOTHF1<br />
LU-GOOLEL1<br />
LU-ULLESK1<br />
LD-COCKBK1<br />
LU-CARLTN1<br />
LU-TEMPLE1<br />
LU-HADDLE1<br />
LU-RAWCLF1<br />
LU-NEWBRG1<br />
LD-WENTMS1<br />
LU-JUBILB1<br />
LU-STAINF1<br />
LX-LONGSN1<br />
LU-CARLTN2<br />
LU-NABURN1<br />
LU-ACASTS1<br />
LU-FLEETP1<br />
LX-BLACKT1<br />
ASTRPRED-HL<br />
STWSPRED-IM<br />
LT-HULLTB1<br />
QL-REAVHL1<br />
QL-HAYDNB1<br />
RF-FARNES1<br />
QL-WOOLSN1<br />
QL-SHILMR1<br />
QL-WITTNP1<br />
LU-VIKING1<br />
QL-SKELTN1<br />
QL-WHITTN1<br />
QL-STAVLY1<br />
LX-WHITTN1<br />
RADAR-HAMEL7006<br />
RFCST-HAMEL7006<br />
BCKRN-SPENN<br />
ST-REDMRF1<br />
RF-DORE001<br />
RF-LANGST2<br />
RF-REDMRF1<br />
SF-REDMRF1<br />
SP-REDMRF1<br />
COMRN-SPENN<br />
QL-HIGHFD1<br />
QX-BOLTNR1<br />
LU-BOLTNR1<br />
QL-BARNSL1<br />
QL-ARMLEY1 LU-METHLY1<br />
QX-WAKEFD1<br />
RADAR-HAMEL7081<br />
RFCST-HAMEL7081<br />
ST-RINGST2<br />
RF-FARNLY1<br />
SF-RINGST2<br />
SP-RINGST2<br />
LU-CASTLF1<br />
QL-BUTTCR1<br />
QX-KIRKHM1<br />
QX-ARTHNG1<br />
RADAR-HAMEL 43<br />
RFCST-HAMEL 43<br />
BCKAT-SPENN<br />
SX-LANGST3<br />
XT-WINGWR1<br />
SW-LANGST3<br />
SD-LANGST3<br />
COMAT-SPENN<br />
XE-WINGWR1<br />
USERN-VYORK<br />
SYNRN-VYORK<br />
USEAT-VYORK<br />
SYNAT-VYORK<br />
COMAT-VYORK<br />
RADAR-INGHM38<br />
RFCST-INGHM38<br />
BCKAT-WOLDS<br />
SX-HGHMOW1<br />
XT-HGHMOW1<br />
SW-HGHMOW1<br />
SD-HGHMOW1<br />
COMAT-WOLDS<br />
XE-HGHMOW1<br />
USERN-WOLDS<br />
SYNRN-WOLDS<br />
USEAT-WOLDS<br />
SYNAT-WOLDS<br />
RADAR-INGHM40<br />
RFCST-INGHM 40<br />
BCKAT-MOORS<br />
SX-KELDHD1<br />
XT-KELDHD1<br />
SW-KELDHD1<br />
SD-KELDHD1<br />
COMAT-MOORS<br />
XE-KELDHD1<br />
USERN-MOORS<br />
SYNRN-MOORS<br />
USEAT-MOORS<br />
SYNAT-MOORS<br />
ASTRPRED-BL<br />
LU-BLACKT1<br />
QL-UGLYDB1<br />
QL-REDEBR1<br />
QL-FEATHS1<br />
RF-LINBGS1<br />
QL-STANHP1<br />
QL-BEDBRN1<br />
QX-ALDWRK1<br />
QX-SKIPBR1<br />
QL-SHEEPB1<br />
QX-HADYHL1<br />
RADAR-INGHM7040<br />
RFCST-INGHM7040<br />
XR-WINGWR1<br />
LU-WHITTN1<br />
RADAR-HAMEL 15<br />
RFCST-HAMEL 15 SX-REDMRF1<br />
SW-REDMRF1<br />
SD-REDMRF1<br />
USERN-SPENN<br />
SYNRN-SPENN<br />
USEAT-SPENN<br />
SYNAT-SPENN<br />
RADAR-HAMEL7067<br />
RFCST-HAMEL7067<br />
RADAR-HAMEL7023<br />
RFCST-HAMEL7023<br />
RF-CANNON1<br />
QX-COTTNL1<br />
LU-WAKEFD1<br />
QX-DEWSBY1<br />
RADAR-HAMEL 46<br />
RFCST-HAMEL 46<br />
SX-RINGST2<br />
RF-RINGST1<br />
SW-RINGST2<br />
SD-RINGST2<br />
LD-KIRKHM1<br />
QX-MALTON1<br />
LU-ARTHNG1<br />
QX-POOLBR1<br />
QX-OTLEY01<br />
QL-ALSTON1<br />
RF-BURNHP1<br />
RF-KILLHP1<br />
RF-ALLENH1<br />
LU-ALDWRK1<br />
QX-BORBRG1<br />
QX-WESTWK2<br />
QL-BATBRG1<br />
QL-CRAKEH1<br />
LU-SKIPBR1<br />
QX-HUNSNG1<br />
RADAR-HAMEL7052<br />
RFCST-HAMEL7052<br />
QX-DRONFD1<br />
LU-HADYHL1<br />
QX-CHESTF1<br />
LU-CHESTF1<br />
QX-HADYHL2<br />
LU-COTTNL1<br />
QX-STOCKB1<br />
QL-KEIGHL1<br />
LU-DEWSBY1<br />
QX-HEATON1<br />
QL-NORTHP1<br />
LU-MALTON1<br />
QX-MARISH1<br />
QX-HOWEBR1 LU-OTLEY01<br />
QL-ILKLEY1<br />
QL-ADDGHM1<br />
RF-ALSTON2<br />
LU-WESTWK2<br />
LX-BORBRG2<br />
QL-KILGRM1<br />
QL-RIPON01<br />
QX-RICHBR1<br />
QX-CATTER1<br />
QX-MORTON1<br />
LU-CATTER1<br />
QX-RICHLW1<br />
QL-LEEMNG1<br />
QL-KIRBYW1<br />
QX-KIRBYW1<br />
LU-HUNSNG1<br />
QL-BIRSTW1<br />
QL-BURNBR1<br />
RADAR-HAMEL7862<br />
RFCST-HAMEL7862<br />
LU-DRONFD1<br />
RADAR-HAMEL7344<br />
RFCST-HAMEL7344<br />
LU-HADYHL2<br />
LU-STOCKB1<br />
QL-KILDWK1<br />
RADAR-HAMEL7072<br />
RFCST-HAMEL7072<br />
ST-GORPLE2<br />
RF-THRNMR1<br />
SF-GORPLE2<br />
SP-GORPLE2<br />
EV-MALHMT1<br />
LU-HEATON1<br />
QX-BRIGHS2<br />
QL-COLNEB1 RADAR-HAMEL7074<br />
RFCST-HAMEL7074<br />
RF-HECKMD1<br />
RADAR-INGHM7955<br />
RFCST-INGHM7955<br />
QL-WESTAY1<br />
LU-HOWEBR1<br />
QX-BUTTER1<br />
QW-CROOKH1<br />
QW-NESS001<br />
QL-CHERRY1<br />
QW-KIRKBY1<br />
QW-NORMAN1<br />
QL-GATEHS1<br />
QW-INGSBR1<br />
QX-BOLTAB1<br />
QX-GRASTN1<br />
QX-BAINBR1<br />
RADAR-HAMEL7059<br />
RFCST-HAMEL7059<br />
ST-SKPBTH1<br />
RF-SCARHS1<br />
SF-SKPBTH1<br />
SP-SKPBTH1<br />
EV-LWRDUN1<br />
COMRN-NPENN<br />
LU-RICHLW1<br />
QX-GRINTN1<br />
RADAR-INGHM7069<br />
RFCST-INGHM7069<br />
ST-OSMOTH1<br />
RF-ESTCOW1<br />
SF-OSMOTH1<br />
SP-OSMOTH1<br />
RF-OSMOTH1<br />
QL-GOUTHW1<br />
RADAR-HAMEL7051<br />
RFCST-HAMEL7051<br />
BCKRN-WPENN<br />
RF-ECCUP01<br />
COMRN-WPENN<br />
RADAR-HAMEL7035<br />
RFCST-HAMEL7035<br />
RF-MALHMT1<br />
RF-SKPBTH1<br />
RADAR-HAMEL 44<br />
RFCST-HAMEL 44<br />
SX-GORPLE2<br />
XT-MALHMT1<br />
RF-GORPLE1<br />
SW-GORPLE2<br />
SD-GORPLE2<br />
XE-MALHMT1<br />
LU-BRIGHS2<br />
QX-ELLAND1<br />
QX-ICI0001<br />
RADAR-INGHM7058<br />
RFCST-INGHM7058<br />
QL-CROOKH1<br />
RF-EASTNS1<br />
RF-CHURCH1<br />
QX-HELMSL1<br />
QL-NESS001<br />
QW-BROADW1<br />
RADAR-INGHM7054<br />
RFCST-INGHM7054<br />
RADAR-INGHM7042<br />
RFCST-INGHM7042<br />
QL-KIRKBY1<br />
RADAR-INGHM7057<br />
RFCST-INGHM7057<br />
QL-NORMAN1<br />
RADAR-INGHM7038<br />
RFCST-INGHM7038<br />
RADAR-INGHM7056<br />
RFCST-INGHM7056<br />
QL-INGSBR1<br />
LU-GRASTN1<br />
QX-KETTLW1<br />
LU-BAINBR1<br />
QL-LOWHSS1<br />
RADAR-HAMEL 25<br />
RFCST-HAMEL 25<br />
BCKAT-WPENN<br />
SX-SKPBTH1<br />
SW-SKPBTH1<br />
SD-SKPBTH1<br />
COMAT-WPENN<br />
XE-LWRDUN1<br />
USERN-NPENN<br />
SYNRN-NPENN<br />
USEAT-NPENN<br />
SYNAT-NPENN<br />
COMAT-NPENN<br />
RADAR-INGHM7886<br />
RFCST-INGHM7886<br />
LU-GRINTN1<br />
ST-ARKENG1<br />
RF-ARKENG1<br />
SF-ARKENG1<br />
SP-ARKENG1 RADAR-INGHM29<br />
RFCST-INGHM 29 SX-OSMOTH1<br />
SW-OSMOTH1<br />
SD-OSMOTH1<br />
USERN-WPENN<br />
SYNRN-WPENN<br />
USEAT-WPENN<br />
SYNAT-WPENN<br />
LU-ELLAND1<br />
QT-SOWRBY1<br />
QX-CLDENE1<br />
LU-ICI0001<br />
QL-QUEENS1<br />
RADAR-INGHM7055<br />
RFCST-INGHM7055 QL-BROADW1<br />
RADAR-HAMEL7900<br />
RFCST-HAMEL7900<br />
BCKRN-NWPEN<br />
LU-KETTLW1<br />
ST-MALHMT1<br />
RF-TOWHLL1<br />
SF-MALHMT1<br />
SP-MALHMT1<br />
COMRN-NWPEN<br />
RADAR-HAMEL7047<br />
RFCST-HAMEL7047<br />
ST-MRCOTT1<br />
SF-MRCOTT1<br />
SP-MRCOTT1<br />
RADAR-HAMEL 2<br />
RFCST-HAMEL 2<br />
BCKAT-NPENN<br />
SX-ARKENG1<br />
SW-ARKENG1<br />
SD-ARKENG1<br />
QX-SOWRBY1<br />
LU-SOWRBY1<br />
QL-RIPPND1<br />
RADAR-HAMEL7845<br />
RFCST-HAMEL7845<br />
LU-CLDENE1<br />
RF-BACUP01<br />
QX-HEBDBR1<br />
RADAR-HAMEL7065<br />
RFCST-HAMEL7065<br />
RF-LUDHLL1<br />
RADAR-HAMEL 36<br />
RFCST-HAMEL 36<br />
BCKAT-NWPEN<br />
SX-MALHMT1<br />
SW-MALHMT1<br />
SD-MALHMT1<br />
COMAT-NWPEN<br />
USERN-NWPEN<br />
SYNRN-NWPEN<br />
USEAT-NWPEN<br />
SYNAT-NWPEN<br />
RADAR-HAMEL 45<br />
RFCST-HAMEL 45<br />
SX-MRCOTT1<br />
SW-MRCOTT1<br />
SD-MRCOTT1<br />
RADAR-HAMEL7068<br />
RFCST-HAMEL7068<br />
LU-HEBDBR1<br />
QX-WALSDN1<br />
QX-TODMDN1<br />
RADAR-HAMEL7392<br />
RFCST-HAMEL7392<br />
LU-WALSDN1<br />
RADAR-HAMEL7931<br />
RFCST-HAMEL7931<br />
LU-TODMDN1<br />
BCKRN-SPENN<br />
RF-GORPLE1<br />
COMRN-SPENN<br />
BCKRN-SPENN<br />
ST-GORPLE2<br />
RF-GORPLE1<br />
SF-GORPLE2<br />
SP-GORPLE2<br />
EV-MALHMT1<br />
COMRN-SPENN<br />
RF-BACUP01<br />
BCKRN-SPENN<br />
BCKAT-SPENN<br />
COMRN-SPENN<br />
COMAT-SPENN<br />
BCKPE-YSINE<br />
BCKRN-SPENN<br />
RF-RINGST1<br />
EV-MALHMT1<br />
COMRN-SPENN<br />
BCKRN-SPENN<br />
ST-GORPLE2<br />
RF-GORPLE1<br />
SF-GORPLE2<br />
SP-GORPLE2<br />
EV-MALHMT1<br />
COMRN-SPENN<br />
RF-BACUP01<br />
XT-MALHMT1<br />
BCKRN-SPENN<br />
ST-RINGST2<br />
SF-RINGST2<br />
SP-RINGST2<br />
COMRN-SPENN<br />
XT-MALHMT1<br />
BCKPE-YSINE<br />
BCKRN-NWPEN<br />
BCKAT-NWPEN<br />
XT-MALHMT1<br />
COMRN-NWPEN<br />
COMAT-NWPEN<br />
BCKRN-NWPEN<br />
RF-TOWHLL1<br />
EV-MALHMT1<br />
COMRN-NWPEN<br />
BCKRN-NPENN<br />
RF-ARKENG1<br />
EV-MALHMT1<br />
COMRN-NPENN<br />
XT-MALHMT1<br />
BCKRN-MOORS<br />
BCKAT-MOORS<br />
XT-KELDHD1<br />
COMRN-MOORS<br />
COMAT-MOORS<br />
BCKPE-YSINE<br />
BCKRN-MOORS<br />
RF-OSMOTH1<br />
COMRN-MOORS<br />
BCKRN-NWPEN<br />
RF-TOWHLL1<br />
EV-MALHMT1<br />
COMRN-NWPEN<br />
RF-MALHMT1<br />
BCKRN-WPENN<br />
RF-MALHMT1<br />
EV-MALHMT1<br />
COMRN-WPENN<br />
RF-SKPBTH1<br />
BCKRN-MOORS<br />
RF-EASTNS1<br />
EV-KELDHD1<br />
COMRN-MOORS<br />
RF-CHURCH1<br />
XR-KELDHD1<br />
BCKRN-MOORS<br />
ST-OSMOTH1<br />
RF-CHURCH1<br />
SF-OSMOTH1<br />
SP-OSMOTH1<br />
EV-KELDHD1<br />
COMRN-MOORS<br />
RF-OSMOTH1<br />
RF-EASTNS1<br />
BCKRN-WPENN<br />
ST-SKPBTH1<br />
SF-SKPBTH1<br />
SP-SKPBTH1<br />
COMRN-WPENN<br />
ST-OSMOTH1<br />
SF-OSMOTH1<br />
SP-OSMOTH1<br />
EV-LWRDUN1<br />
RF-OSMOTH1<br />
BCKRN-VYORK<br />
ST-OSMOTH1<br />
RF-ESTCOW1<br />
SF-OSMOTH1<br />
SP-OSMOTH1<br />
EV-LWRDUN1<br />
COMRN-VYORK<br />
BCKRN-NPENN<br />
ST-SKPBTH1<br />
RF-SCARHS1<br />
SF-SKPBTH1<br />
SP-SKPBTH1<br />
EV-LWRDUN1<br />
COMRN-NPENN<br />
BCKRN-SPENN<br />
ST-RINGST2<br />
SF-RINGST2<br />
SP-RINGST2<br />
EV-MALHMT1<br />
COMRN-SPENN<br />
BCKRN-SPENN<br />
ST-GORPLE2<br />
RF-THRNMR1<br />
SF-GORPLE2<br />
SP-GORPLE2<br />
EV-MALHMT1<br />
COMRN-SPENN<br />
BCKRN-SPENN<br />
BCKAT-SPENN<br />
XT-WINGWR1<br />
COMRN-SPENN<br />
COMAT-SPENN<br />
BCKRN-MOORS<br />
ST-KELDHD1<br />
XR-KELDHD1<br />
SF-KELDHD1<br />
SP-KELDHD1<br />
EV-KELDHD1<br />
COMRN-MOORS<br />
BCKRN-MOORS<br />
ST-KELDHD1<br />
XR-KELDHD1<br />
RF-BROWNH1<br />
SF-KELDHD1<br />
SP-KELDHD1<br />
EV-KELDHD1<br />
RF-EASTNS1<br />
COMRN-MOORS<br />
BCKRN-MOORS<br />
ST-KELDHD1<br />
XR-KELDHD1<br />
SF-KELDHD1<br />
SP-KELDHD1<br />
EV-KELDHD1<br />
COMRN-MOORS<br />
RF-EASTNS1<br />
BCKRN-MOORS<br />
ST-KELDHD1<br />
XR-KELDHD1<br />
RF-CHURCH1<br />
SF-KELDHD1<br />
SP-KELDHD1<br />
EV-KELDHD1<br />
RF-BROWNH1<br />
COMRN-MOORS<br />
BCKRN-MOORS<br />
ST-KELDHD1<br />
XR-KELDHD1<br />
RF-CHURCH1<br />
SF-KELDHD1<br />
SP-KELDHD1<br />
EV-KELDHD1<br />
RF-EASTNS1<br />
COMRN-MOORS<br />
BCKPE-YSINE<br />
BCKRN-NPENN<br />
BCKRN-MOORS<br />
ST-KELDHD1<br />
XR-KELDHD1<br />
SF-KELDHD1<br />
SP-KELDHD1<br />
EV-KELDHD1<br />
COMRN-MOORS<br />
RF-BROWNH1<br />
BCKRN-SPENN<br />
EV-WINGWR1<br />
COMRN-SPENN<br />
BCKRN-SPENN<br />
ST-REDMRF1<br />
XR-WINGWR1<br />
SF-REDMRF1<br />
SP-REDMRF1<br />
EV-WINGWR1<br />
COMRN-SPENN<br />
RF-REDMRF1<br />
BCKPE-YSINE<br />
BCKRN-NPENN<br />
BCKRN-SPENN<br />
BCKAT-SPENN<br />
XT-WINGWR1<br />
COMRN-SPENN<br />
COMAT-SPENN<br />
BCKRN-SPENN<br />
ST-REDMRF1<br />
SF-REDMRF1<br />
SP-REDMRF1<br />
EV-WINGWR1<br />
COMRN-SPENN<br />
XR-WINGWR1<br />
BCKPE-YSINE<br />
BCKRN-NPENN<br />
BCKPE-YSINE<br />
BCKRN-NPENN<br />
XR-WINGWR1<br />
BCKRN-SPENN<br />
ST-REDMRF1<br />
XR-WINGWR1<br />
SF-REDMRF1<br />
SP-REDMRF1<br />
EV-WINGWR1<br />
COMRN-SPENN<br />
BCKRN-VYORK<br />
ST-RINGST2<br />
SF-RINGST2<br />
SP-RINGST2<br />
EV-WINGWR1<br />
COMRN-VYORK<br />
BCKRN-SPENN<br />
EV-WINGWR1<br />
COMRN-SPENN<br />
BCKRN-SPENN<br />
ST-REDMRF1<br />
RF-DORE001<br />
SF-REDMRF1<br />
SP-REDMRF1<br />
EV-WINGWR1<br />
COMRN-SPENN<br />
BCKPE-YSINE<br />
BCKRN-NPENN<br />
BCKPE-YSINE<br />
XR-HGHMOW1<br />
BCKRN-SPENN<br />
ST-REDMRF1<br />
RF-DORE001<br />
RF-LANGST2<br />
RF-REDMRF1<br />
SF-REDMRF1<br />
SP-REDMRF1<br />
EV-WINGWR1<br />
COMRN-SPENN<br />
BCKPE-YSINE<br />
BCKRN-NPENN<br />
BCKPE-YSINE<br />
BCKRN-NPENN<br />
RF-GOLDSC1<br />
BCKPE-YSINE<br />
BCKRN-NPENN<br />
RF-DARRAS1<br />
BCKPE-YSINE<br />
BCKRN-NPENN<br />
BCKRN-WOLDS<br />
XR-HGHMOW1<br />
COMRN-WOLDS<br />
BCKRN-VYORK<br />
ST-LANGST3<br />
SF-LANGST3<br />
SP-LANGST3<br />
EV-WINGWR1<br />
COMRN-VYORK<br />
QL-SCARBH1<br />
1-NONTIDAL-N<br />
1-NONTIDAL-T<br />
1-NONTIDAL<br />
1-NONTIDAL-T<br />
1-NONTIDAL-N<br />
1-NONTIDAL<br />
NONTID-T-DUM<br />
TIDAL-T-DUM<br />
FLOW3-KIRKNW<br />
FLOW3-WOOLER<br />
FLOW3-STAMFM<br />
FLOW3-MITFRD<br />
HULLTB-MERG<br />
FLOW3-TEAMVL<br />
FIXF-BURNHL<br />
EVAP-WINGWR<br />
COM-VYORK<br />
EVAP-HGHMOW<br />
COM-WOLDS<br />
EVAP-KELDHD<br />
COM-MOORS<br />
BLACKT-MERG<br />
FLOW3-WOOLSN<br />
FLOW3-SHILMR<br />
ROTHX-WHITTN<br />
COM-SPENN<br />
SNOW2-RINGST<br />
FIXF-UGLYDB<br />
FIXF-REDEBR<br />
FLOW3-STANHP<br />
FIXF-BEDBRN<br />
FLOW3-ALSTON<br />
FIXF-BATBRG<br />
SNOW2-GORPLE<br />
EVAP-MALHMT<br />
FIXF-WESTAY<br />
EVAP-LWRDUN<br />
COM-NPENN<br />
SNOW2-OSMOTH<br />
FIXF-GOUTHW<br />
COM-WPENN<br />
FLOW3-BROADW<br />
SNOW2-ARKENG<br />
FLOW2-QUEENS<br />
COM-NWPEN<br />
SNOW2-MRCOTT<br />
FLOW3-RIPP ND<br />
FLOW3-WALSDN<br />
FLOW3-TODMDN<br />
CALD3-HEBDBR<br />
SNOW2-MALHMT<br />
FLOW3-CLDENE<br />
CALD3-SOWRBY<br />
FLOW2-LOWHSS<br />
FLOW2-KETTLW<br />
COLN-ICI0003<br />
CALD3-ELLAND<br />
FLOW2-GRINTN<br />
SNOW2-SKPBTH<br />
URE0-BAINBR<br />
WHAR-GRASTN3<br />
FLOW3-CHERRY<br />
COLN-COLNEB3<br />
CALD3-BRIGHS<br />
FLOW2-KILDWK<br />
FLOW2-BURNBR<br />
NIDD-BIRSTW<br />
FLOW2XKIRBYW<br />
FLOW2-KIRBYW<br />
SWAL-RICHLW2<br />
FLOW2-RIPON0<br />
URE0-KILGRM<br />
WHAR-ADDGHM3<br />
FLOW3-NORTHP<br />
CALD3-HEATON<br />
FLOW2-KEIGHL<br />
AIRE-STOCKB3<br />
NIDD-HUNSNG<br />
URE0-WESTWK3<br />
WHAR-OTLEY02<br />
CALD-DEWSBY3<br />
AIRE-COTTNL3<br />
NIDD-SKIPBR<br />
TYNE3-FEATHS<br />
WHAR-ARTHNG2<br />
CALD-WAKEFD3<br />
AIRE-ARMLEY3<br />
SNOW2-REDMRF<br />
FLOW3-STAVLY<br />
WEAR3-WITTNP<br />
TYNE3-HAYDNB<br />
TYNE3-REAVHL<br />
SNOW2-KELDHD<br />
SNOW2-HGHMOW<br />
SNOW2-LANGST<br />
WHAR-FLINTM<br />
FLOW2-FARRER<br />
CALD3-METHLY<br />
AIRE-FLEETW<br />
WEAR3-SUNDBR<br />
COQU3-ROTHBY<br />
TYNE3-CRAGHL<br />
TYNE3-BYWELL<br />
FLOW3-SCARBH<br />
FLOW2-BOYNTN<br />
FLOW2-WALDEN<br />
WHAR-TADCST<br />
WEAR3-CHESLS<br />
COQU3-MORWCK<br />
TYNE3-RIDNGM<br />
NONTID-N-DUM<br />
FLOW3-INGSBR<br />
FLOW3-GATEHS<br />
FLOW3-NORMAN<br />
FLOW3-KIRKBY<br />
FLOW3-CROOKH<br />
SWAL-LEEMNG2<br />
FLOW3-MARISH<br />
FLOW3-HADYUP<br />
FLOW3-DRONFD<br />
SWAL-CRAKEH4<br />
FLOW3-HADYHL<br />
FLOW3-SHEEPB<br />
URE0-ALDWRK3<br />
FLOW2-BARNSL<br />
FLOW2-HIGHFD<br />
ROTH3-WHITTN<br />
OUSE-SKELTN<br />
AIRE-CASTLF3<br />
DEAR-ADWICK<br />
FLOW2-HADFDS<br />
ROTH3-WOODHS<br />
OUSE-VIKING<br />
AIRE-BEALWR<br />
DON0-DONCST<br />
OUSE-NABURN<br />
TIDAL-N-DUM<br />
RYE03-NESS00<br />
RYE03-HOWEBR<br />
DERW3-MALTON<br />
DERW3-KIRKHM<br />
DERW3-BUTTCR<br />
DERW3-ELVING<br />
NONTIDAL-DUM<br />
TIDAL-HYD2<br />
NONT-ALL-DUM<br />
TIDAL-DUM2<br />
TID-ALL-DUM<br />
3700 3800 3900 4000 4100 4200 4300 4400 4500 4600 4700 4800 4900 5000 5100 5200 5300 5400 5500<br />
3700 3800 3900 4000 4100 4200 4300 4400 4500 4600 4700 4800 4900 5000 5100 5200 5300 5400 5500<br />
3600<br />
3700<br />
3800<br />
3900<br />
4000<br />
4100<br />
4200<br />
4300<br />
4400<br />
4500<br />
4600<br />
4700<br />
4800<br />
4900<br />
5000<br />
5100<br />
5200<br />
3600<br />
3700<br />
3800<br />
3900<br />
4000<br />
4100<br />
4200<br />
4300<br />
4400<br />
4500<br />
4600<br />
4700<br />
4800<br />
4900<br />
5000<br />
5100<br />
5200<br />
Not to a st <strong>and</strong>ard s cale Yorks hire<br />
Northeast RFFS<br />
Model Network<br />
Yorkshire RFFS<br />
Forecast<br />
Requirement<br />
Propagation of<br />
uncertainty ?<br />
Model Network<br />
configuration
a) Rainfall<br />
Rainfall ( mm )<br />
1.2<br />
0.8<br />
0.4<br />
0.0<br />
01 - JAN<br />
b) Flow<br />
Flow ( m 3 s -1 )<br />
12<br />
10<br />
8<br />
6<br />
4<br />
2<br />
0<br />
01 - JAN<br />
Flood forecasting <strong>and</strong> warning<br />
02 - JAN 03 - JAN<br />
Observed<br />
Forecast (unknown rainfall)<br />
Forecast (known rainfall)<br />
02 - JAN 03 - JAN<br />
What ifs?<br />
Informal ensembles
River Seine at Paris<br />
Area-wide Area wide flow<br />
modelling<br />
Sub-surface flow<br />
L<strong>and</strong> path<br />
River path<br />
Surface flow<br />
Return flow
Area-wide Area wide Hydrological Grid Model<br />
with rainfall ensembles<br />
Probability products?
STochastic STochastic<br />
Ensemble nsemble Prediction rediction System ystem<br />
�� Model design<br />
�� Cascade framework to model dynamic scaling behaviour<br />
�� merging extrapolation nowcasts with NWP forecast<br />
�� Sources of uncertainty / error<br />
�� diagnosed velocity fields<br />
�� Lagrangian temporal evolution<br />
�� NWP forecast<br />
�� initial state - radar inferred rain rate<br />
�� Forecast evolution<br />
�� blends extrapolation, NWP <strong>and</strong> noise cascades<br />
�� stochastic noise<br />
• replaces extrapolated features beyond their life times<br />
• introduces features unresolved by NWP<br />
�� 100 member ensemble
�� Stochastic noise progressively dominates the forecast from<br />
the smallest scales upwards.<br />
��This This process is arrested by the NWP forecast.<br />
�� 4 km resolution<br />
�� 6 hour forecast<br />
�� 100 members
Towards probabilistic hydrological<br />
forecasting<br />
�� Uncertainty in rainfall input dominates (<strong>Moore</strong>, ( <strong>Moore</strong>, 2002) 2002<br />
�� Ignore other error sources eg. eg.<br />
rainfall-runoff rainfall runoff model<br />
�� Ensemble of river flow from ensemble of rain accumulation<br />
�� Underestimates total uncertainty (Krzyztofowicz, ( Krzyztofowicz, 2001)<br />
2001
Case study: 21 December 2002<br />
�� Catchment<br />
�� River Mole, 142 km 2 , S.E. Engl<strong>and</strong><br />
�� Rainfall forecast<br />
�� STEPS 100 member ensemble (no NWP)<br />
�� 15 minute accumulation<br />
�� range 6 hours<br />
�� River flow forecast<br />
�� Probability Distributed Model (PDM)<br />
�� Calibrated using radar data<br />
�� Forecasts from 3 time origins<br />
�� Forecast range extended using zero rainfall
Probability Distributed Model<br />
Moisture<br />
storage<br />
c min<br />
c max<br />
Rainfall<br />
f P<br />
INPUT<br />
Potential Evaporation<br />
E<br />
Runoff<br />
Groundwater<br />
recharge:<br />
k g (S - S t ) bg<br />
k 1 S 1<br />
SURFACE<br />
STORAGE<br />
SUBSURFACE<br />
STORAGE<br />
k 2 S 2<br />
Baseflow: k b S b 3<br />
Surface<br />
runoff<br />
River<br />
Flow
Forecast flow ensemble<br />
Forecast rmse <strong>and</strong> mae<br />
5%, median, 95% points<br />
of flow forecast<br />
Probability Flood<br />
Forecasts from radar<br />
rainfall nowcast<br />
ensembles<br />
<strong>CEH</strong>/Met Office/Australian Bureau<br />
of Meteorology collaboration
August 2002<br />
European floods
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