(FROST-2014) Concept paper - WMO

CAS/WWRP/JSC5/Doc. 4.1 : p. 1 

WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION 

COMMISSION FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES (CAS) 

5 th Joint Science Committee of the World Weather 

Research Programme 

WMO 

Geneva, Switzerland (11-13 April 2012) 

CAS/WWRP/JSC5/DOC4.1 

(27 January 2012) 

Item: 4.1 

Forecast and Research: the Olympic Sochi Testbed (FROST-2014) 

Concept paper 

Introduction 

The Next Olympic / Paralympic Games «Sochi-2014» (hereinafter referred to as 

«Olympics») will be held in Sochi, Russia, on February 8-23 / March 7-16, 2014. 

Roshydromet (the Federal Service for HydroMeteorology and Environmental Monitoring) is 

responsible for provision of hydrological and meteorological support and services to 

ensure the safety of the guests and participants and efficient work of involved bodies. All 

forecast ranges are important for the Olympic meteorological services. However, out of 

these «seamless» needs the primary focus of the proposed project is on nowcasting and 

short-range weather forecasting. 

FROST-2014 (FROST - Forecast and Research: the Olympic Sochi Testbed) project is 

proposed for the period from now to the Olympics: 

• To develop, enhance and demonstrate capabilities of modern systems of shortrange 

numerical weather prediction (NWP); 

• To further develop and demonstrate nowcasting in winter conditions for 

mountainous terrain and 

• To assess the effect of practical use of this information. 

Background and heritage 

The World Meteorological Organization’s World Weather Research Program (WWRP) has 

previously organized several Forecast Demonstration Projects (FDP) and Research 

Development Projects (RDP) to advance and demonstrate state-of-the-art nowcasting and 

forecasting systems. Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP) was the first RDP (1999) and 

was focused on understanding weather systems in complex terrain and flash flood events. 

Based on the success of MAP, the MAP-Demonstration Phase was organized in 2005 and 

focused on demonstrating the utility of prediction systems for hydrological flash flood 

applications. While in complex terrain, the focus was on precipitation. The Sydney 2000 

FDP focused on advancing and demonstrating summer convective nowcasting systems. 

The Beijing 2008 FDP was conducted with the goal to demonstrate nowcasting advances 

since 2000 and facilitate technology transfer into operations. In addition, the second 

project, Beijing 2008 RDP was carried out with focus on mesoscale ensemble prediction. 

In both projects the focus was on precipitation prediction, convective initiation and summer 

severe weather. SNOW-V10 (Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 

2010) project was approved as an RDP due to the novel aspects of the winter nowcasting, 

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particularly in complex terrain, but operated as a blended RDP/FDP. Innovations included 

nowcasting of rain-snow boundary, snowfall intensity, phase, visibility (fog/low cloud), 

temperature, and wind. 

From the point of view of weather conditions, orography and meteorological needs these 

Olympics have much in common with the recent «Vancouver-2010» Olympic Games. 

Similar to Vancouver, high winds, visibility and low cloud, precipitation amount and phase 

are the critical weather elements. Following the FDP/RDP of the «Vancouver-2010», the 

present project offers a tremendous opportunity to continue and enhance the progress 

made there, develop and test new techniques for weather forecasting and nowcasting. 

FROST-2014 is expected: 

• To extend experience of the B08RDP mesoscale ensemble prediction into 

mountain environment in winter season; 

• To extend the experience of MAP and MAP D-Phase to various weather elements; 

• To extend the experience of SNOW-V10, which was focused primarily on 

nowcasting, to more emphasis on NWP. 

The Venues 

The city of Sochi is located at approximately 44°N, 40°E at the Black sea coast. Sochi 

Olympic objects are separated between two clusters: a coastal cluster for ice sport 

competitions and a mountain cluster for snow sport events. The latter is located at 

Krasnaya Polyana township about 45 km away from the coast (Fig.1). Mountains of 

approximately 2 km height are typical for that region. The mountain cluster events are 

especially weather-sensitive. 

Fig.1. The two clusters of «Sochi-2014» Olympic venues: 

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- The coastal cluster for ice sports competitions (Figure Skating, Short track Skating, 

Speed Skating, Ice Hockey, Curling, Ice training); Opening and Closing 

Ceremonies; 

- The mountain cluster for snow sports competitions (Alpine skiing, Cross-country 

skiing, Biathlon, Ski jumping and Nordic Combined, Freestyle and Snowboard, 

Bobsleigh, Luge and Skeleton). 

Weather conditions and challenges 

Winter weather conditions in the region of Sochi are mainly determined by the quasipermanent 

Black Sea baric depression and the spur of the Asian anticyclone. Rapidly 

passing cyclones accompanied by strong winds, snow- and rainfall are alternated with cold 

anti-cyclonic intrusions from the east. Main Caucasian ridge mitigates these cold intrusions 

and block warm wet landward air flows from the Black sea. The typical sea surface 

temperature near Sochi in February-March is 8-10ºC. 

Multiyear mean minimum near-surface temperatures in the mountain cluster in the period 

of the Olympics are negative at all altitudes; mean maximum temperatures are below zero 

at altitudes above 1600 m; and daily mean temperatures are negative at altitudes above 

700 m. In some years intense heatwaves might endanger the natural snow cover 

existence in the lowermost part of the mountain cluster. 

On the other hand, heavy snowfalls are also typical for this area. Maximum registered daily 

snowfall reported by the weather station Krasnaya Poliana (WMO index: 37107. 

Elevation: 568 m) was 92 cm. Winter maximum is clearly pronounced in the precipitation 

annual cycle. Mean monthly precipitation totals in Krasnaya Poliana for February and 

March are equal to 123 and 118 mm respectively. They tend to increase with elevation. 

Sharp weather contrasts and high spatial and temporal variability are typical for the region 

of the Olympics. Steep mountainous terrain and intricate mixture of maritime sub-tropical 

and Alpine environments make weather forecasting in this region extremely challenging. 

For the territory of Russia northern Caucasus is among the leaders with respect to the 

number of annually registered weather hazards (heavy precipitation, strong winds, icing 

etc). Although not frequent, thunderstorms might also take place in winter season. 

Precipitation intensity and type, gusting winds, visibility and cloud ceiling are the primary 

critical weather elements for the Sochi Olympics. 

Goals of the FROST-2014 project 

Meteorological support of winter Olympics in mountainous terrain implies both fundamental 

research and practical forecast demonstration components. A blended RDP/FDP under 

the auspices of the Nowcasting and Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Research Working 

Groups of the WWRP is to be an appropriate organizational form for the project. The 

outputs of the project will be used to enhance the mesoscale and nowcasting services for 

the Olympics. 

Goals: 

• To improve and exploit: 

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– high-resolution deterministic mesoscale forecasts of meteorological 

conditions in winter complex terrain environment, including downscaled 

modeling; 

– regional mesoscale EPS (Ensemble Prediction System) forecast products in 

winter complex terrain environment; 

– nowcast systems of high impact weather phenomena (snow levels, wind, 

visibility, precipitation type and intensity) in complex terrain. 

• To improve the understanding of physics of high impact weather phenomena in the 

region; 

• To deliver deterministic and probabilistic forecasts in real time to Olympic weather 

forecasters and decision makers and assess benefits of forecast improvement. 

• To assess benefits of forecast improvement (verification and societal impacts) 

As the project evolves these goals will be detailed. 

Deterministic NWP 

Project components and objectives 

NWP is considered to be a backbone of the FROST-2014 project. The very complex 

region of Sochi provides a stimulating environment for the application of high-resolution 

meso-scale modeling methods for the purposes of short-term weather forecasting. 

There are many scientific issues that should be addressed within this deterministic 

component of the project, e.g.: 

• Impact of horizontal resolution and various physical processes on NWP of highimpact 

winter weather over a region with mountain terrain; 

• Mesoscale data assimilation and its impact on forecasts of winter weather; 

• Impact of better surface-atmosphere coupling on predictability of mesoscale 

phenomena; 

• Nowcasting potential of numerical models; 

• Predictability of various meteorological parameters/phenomena of winter weather in 

mountains (precipitation intensity and type, wind speed and direction, visibility, etc.). 

Development and testing of physical parameterizations for visibility, wind gusts, 

precipitation type and snow characteristics along with improvement of formulation of 

boundary layer and shallow convection should be a part of the project. 

The preliminary list of participants of this project component includes: COSMO, AROME, 

GEM, WRF, GRAPES (?), and HARMONIE. It is planned that in FDP mode FROST-2014 

deterministic forecasts will have horizontal resolution of 2-2.5 km or finer, whereas in RDP 

mode 1 km or less. The groups that wish to go beyond this baseline in terms of resolution 

are welcome to do so. Besides, various approaches of downscaling of model forecasts to 

the locations of individual sport venues will be implemented, verified, and intercompared. It 

is worth noting that at the moment no operational model with resolution about 2 km is 

implemented for the region in question. Several models are expected to be implemented 

for the Sochi region with resolution of 1 km or finer (e.g. GEM/LAM, COSMO, AROME). 

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COSMO will be the basic operational mesoscale NWP system of Roshydromet for the 

Sochi Olympics. 

Ensemble NWP 

Many scientific issues should be addressed in the framework of ensemble NWP 

component of the project, e.g.: 

• Forecast error growth and predictability on small spatial and temporal scales over 

steep terrain; 

• Representation of sources of uncertainty in LAM EPS systems. Methodologies for 

generating perturbations in initial conditions, lateral boundary conditions, surface 

fields, and model errors; 

• Interpretation and configuring of LAM-EPS in the context of high-impact weather in 

mountains; 

• Added value of convection permitting EPSs. Evaluation of the usefulness of coarser 

resolution EPSs to provide uncertainty information for prediction of weather 

elements at particular locations (which typically requires much higher horizontal 

resolution) compared to 1-km or less deterministic models; 

• Forecast uncertainty vs observational uncertainty in forecast verification. 

The main challenge for regional EPS systems is to accurately assess the probability of 

High-Impact Weather (HIW) events. With respect to the number of annually registered 

weather hazards (heavy precipitation, strong winds, icing etc.), northern Caucasus is one 

of the most affected regions on the territory of Russia. This region might be a good testing 

ground for the development of new probabilistic forecast products for HIW events. Due to 

the strong dependence of many winter sport events on weather conditions, HIW in the 

context of winter Olympics is not necessarily linked with very intense or extreme 

meteorological phenomena. E.g. for outdoor sport events HIW forecasting also includes 

accurate representation of cross-zero temperature transitions (especially critical for crosscountry 

skiing), precipitation type and other sensible weather changes with respect to the 

prescribed decision-making thresholds (Annex 6). Development and demonstration of 

various HIW-related specific products is part of this ensemble project component. 

EPSs with resolution of about 7 km or coarser are planned to be involved in the project in 

forecast demonstration mode, while EPSs with resolution about 2 km will contribute to the 

project in research mode. Tentative list of participants: COSMO, ALADIN LAEF, AROME 

EPS, GLAMEPS, and HARMON EPS. ECMWF officially informed Roshydromet about its 

readiness to provide lateral boundary conditions for a WMO project associated with 

«Sochi-2014» Olympics. 

Data assimilation 

The vast sea area on one side and mountainous terrain on the other side of Sochi impose 

serious restrictions on configuration of the ground-based observational network in the 

region. This geography requires the extensive use of satellite, Doppler radar and profiler 

facilities for sounding of the atmosphere and the underlying surface. This information will 

be of utmost importance as a source of meso-scale structures for NWP. Therefore, highresolution 

data assimilation is a matter of particular interest and a new aspect of WWRP 

projects. 

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Several data assimilation approaches for the atmosphere and the underlying surface are 

expected to be tested. Some project participants will conduct experiments with identical 

model configurations with and without data assimilation to assess the data assimilation 

contribution to forecast performance. 

Assimilation of radar data in the region of Sochi may only be beneficial for a short forecast 

range because of lack of radar coverage to the west of Olympic venues. Rapid update 

cycle capability is therefore needed to exploit the potential benefits. Assimilation of satellite 

winds (AMV and ASCAT) and radiances over vast areas of the Black Sea is believed to be 

important as its effect may last longer. 

List of non-satellite data that are considered to be useful for assimilation in Sochi project 

includes: 

– Surface observations; 

– Radar winds; 

– Wind and temperature profiles from local sounders; 

– AMDAR. 

Assimilation of radar reflectivity aiming for a better representation of the thermodynamic 

structure of the atmosphere near precipitating clouds might not be too efficient and useful 

in winter, but this is an area that may be addressed in the RDP project. 

Data assimilation is to be included in both FDP (the existing technologies) and RDP (new 

developments) FROST-2014 components. 

As suggested by the WWRP Working Group on Mesoscale Weather Forecasting 

Research, a simple downscaling from relatively low-resolution (7 km or coarser) regional 

data assimilation systems will be the baseline. For example, for COSMO-RU assimilation 

is to be run at resolution about 7 km with downscaling to 2 or 1 km. But groups that are 

able to go beyond that and assimilate observations from the «Sochi-2014» network (e.g., 

radar radial winds, profilers) are encouraged to attempt the kilometric-scale data 

assimilation. 

Nowcasting 

SNOW-V10 was the first WWRP winter complex terrain nowcasting project. It remains to 

be demonstrated whether its results are universally applied and can be demonstrated in a 

different environment or with different observating network. FROST-2014 provides an 

excellent opportunity to extend the experience of SNOW-V10 project in the scientifically 

challenging area of winter nowcasting in a region with complex terrain. 

Many issues should be tackled within this project component in the RDP mode, e.g.: 

- Nowcasting of high impact winter weather and multiple weather elements (wind speed 

and direction, wind gust, visibility, precipitation intensity and type) in complex terrain; 

- Improvement of blending procedures for NWP with time-extrapolated observations for 

winter; 

- Radar retrieval of precipitation type and intensity; 

- Diabatic and orographic effects on precipitation nowcasting in complex terrain; 

- Assessment and account for observational uncertainty (WGNR mandate). 

- Identification of local circulations and clouds controlled by effects of flow blocking, 

diabatic cooling due to melting snow, and evaporation of precipitation. 

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A major challenge is the development of nowcasting systems or mesoscale NWP systems 

to fill the gap in the 4-6 hour lead time and, probably, up to the 12 hour range. Nowcasting 

potential of participating NWP models (COSMO, HARMONIE, AROME, GEM, and WRF) 

should be assessed for direct and post-processed (e.g. Kalman filter, 1-D model, MOS) 

model forecasts. Besides the meso-scale models, specialized nowcasting systems are 

expected to be used in the project (see Table 1). Capabilities of these technologies and 

new nowcasting products for winter HIW events are planned to be demonstrated in the 

FDP mode. 

Table 1. Tentative list of nowcasting systems participating in FROST-2014 

System Forecast Spatial 

Output Products 

Period Resolution 

ABOM 0-6h 1km Precipitation rate and type; wind speed 

direction and gust; temperature; humidity; 

visibility; cloud base 

CARDS 0-2h 1km Location, intensity and track of storm cell; QPF; 

hail size; gust; downburst; mesocyclone 

INTW 0-6h 1km Precipitation rate and type; wind speed 

direction and gust; temperature; humidity; 

visbility; cloud base 

MeteoExpert 0-4h 1km Location, intensity and track of cloudiness and 

precipitation zones and dangerous weather 

(Thunderstorm, hail, microburst, icing and 

turbulence), QPF. 

STEPS 0-6h 1km QPF and precipitation probability 

INCA 0-6h 1km Precipitation intensity and type; wind; 

temperature; humidity; visibility (experimental 

mode) 

WSDDM 0-2h 0.2 km QPF; precipitation type and rate, visibility, 

temperature 

In general, current experience of nowcasting in Russia is very limited and associated 

mostly with areas of flat terrain. Outcomes of the proposed activity might be a long-term 

legacy of the project. 

Observations 

Roshydromet will provide the project partners with access to additional in-situ and remote 

sensing observations not normally available via the GTS. These observations will be 

available to the participants via Internet with minimal delays. 

In 2009-2010 18 automatic meteorological stations (AMS) were installed in the region by 

Roshydromet. Some of these stations were enhanced with additional sensors (visibility 

and cloud base) in the autumn 2011 (Annex 1). On account of investors, 10 AMS were 

installed and 7 AMS will be added in the area of sport venues during the winter 2011/2012. 

Besides, 8 AMS were installed and about 20 AMS should be mounted on the towers of 

mobile communication owned by the Megafon corporation. The frequency of observations 

will be station-dependent (it might be different for the different groups of stations: 

Roshydromet’s AMSs, AMSs owned by sport venue investors, and AMSs of the Megafon 

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corporation). In general the sampling interval will not exceed 10 minutes. For a subset of 

the stations it will be substantially higher. 

More details on the AMSs (sensors and coordinates) are presented in Annex 1. 

Fig.2 AMSs in the region of Sochi (a similar map with zooming is available at 

http://frost2014.meteoinfo.ru). Notation: Roshydromet's AMSs are designated by red 

markers with label "*"; "E" - Roshydromet's air quality control stations; "R" - mountain 

skiing venue AMSs (owned by the Rosa-Khutor company); "G" - biathlon venue AMSs 

(owned by the Gazprom company);"M" – AMSs on the cellphone towers of the Megaphone 

operator; "A" - planned AMSs on the Megaphone cellphone towers. Moored sea buoys are 

designated by sail boats. Location of Doppler radar on the Akhun mountain is marked by 

white nested circles. The mountain cluster is outlined by the red cirle. 

Data from the new dual polarization Doppler weather radar WRM200 on Akhun mountain 

will be available by winter 2012/2013. Additional dual-polarization Dopplers in nearby 

airports might be installed later. 

Wind profiler, temperature/humidity profiler and Micro Rain Radar (MRR) will supplement 

the network by winter 2012/2013. It is quite likely that another MRR will be installed during 

the winter 2011/2012. In the Krasnaya Poliana valley these vertical soundings will be 

extremely important for diagnosis of the atmospheric lower layers screened from the 

Akhun Doppler radar by the mountains. 

The nearest to the mountain cluster upper air sounding station is located in Tuapse 

(approximately 100 km north-west). Soundings in Tuapse will be launched every 6 hours. 

Other ways to enhance the observational network are looked into (more frequent sounding 

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at other nearest aerological stations including stations in Ukraine, Armenia, Turkey, 

Bulgaria; receiving of AMDAR data from Adler airport; etc). 

Several FROST-2014 participants expressed their readiness to lend additional 

observational equipment for the project and interest to organization of an instrument 

intercomparison site. This opportunity is being worked on. 

Information Technologies 

Development of a comprehensive information resource wih appropriate IT-infrastructure 

and efficient data facilities is one of the key elements of the project. It is needed for 

operational data assimilation, forecasting and nowcasting, verification, for posterior 

diagnostic studies and analysis. 

Unification and integration of data flows from multiple observational platforms and forecast 

systems, timely information generation and delivery, efficient means of information 

presentation are crucial for the project success. The proposed version of the forecast data 

exchange protocol is presented in Annex 2. 

Data storage with authorized Internet access and capacity for information rescue and 

memory extention was organized for observation and forecast data exchange between the 

project participants via FTP and HTTP protocols. Initial version of the project web-site is 

available at http://frost2014.meteoinfo.ru. Some ideas for its web-interface that are 

currently being implemented, originally were taken from web-resources of the previous 

WWRP projects (e.g. elements of multi-window MAP D-Phase web-interface are being 

realized on the basis of Google Earth for visualisation of meteorological information). 

After the Olympics support of the FROST-2014 http/ftp-server is planned for further 

retrospective studies (e.g. in the context of data assimilation). 

Training and understanding 

FROST-2014 is intended as an ‘end-to-end’ project. Its products must be used by local 

forecasters for meteorological support of the future Olympics and preceding test sport 

events. Training is critically needed to benefit from FROST-2014 nowcasts and forecasts 

issued in FDP mode. This need is enhanced by the currently modest experience of 

Roshydromet in nowcasting, high-resolution NWP and ensemble forecasting in complex 

terrain. The project will contribute to the capacity building for the Russian Weather Service 

in these and other related areas. 

Annual training courses for future Sochi Olympic forecasters and their practical 

participation in meteorological support of the test sport events have been practiced since 

autumn 2010. This practice will continue till the Olympics. It will be intensified as more 

technical facilities become available for forecasters. To get familiar and develop practical 

skills with various new forecast products their early availability is of utmost importance. 

This is also important for training of involved sport managers and decision makers. 

Enhanced observational facilities and new NWP instruments are expected to give a new 

look at the local weather phenomena in the region of the Olympics. The RDP project 

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component can be of great help for better understanding of local HIW and development of 

conceptual models of local meteorological processes. 

Verification and Impact Assessments 

Given the probabilistic nature of small-scale weather, traditional verification of deterministic 

model output often fails to demonstrate the added value of high-resolution mesoscale 

forecasts. This has provoked an extensive research into alternative mesoscale verification 

methods. Along with traditional verification methods the substantial attention in FROST- 

2014 should be given to new probabilistic approaches. Both user-oriented (in particular, 

with account for the thresholds for decision making) and research-oriented verification 

approaches will be employed. Spatial verification using remote sensing data will be applied 

to the predicted precipitation fields. The preliminary version of the project verification plan 

is presented in Annex 4. 

As a complex terrain imposes additional limitations on representativeness of pointwise 

contact observations, a substantial attention will be paid to account for statistical structure 

of observed fields and uncertainty in observations. 

Periodic formalized surveys among the Olympic forecasters will complement the results of 

objective verification. Year by year interviewing of the forecasters should help to 

understand how forecasters’ needs are changing. For example, how understanding of 

weather processes (conceptual models) or use of EPS products evolve. Analysis of these 

surveys is a part of social impact assessments, because the forecasters themselves or, 

e.g., venue managers might be considered as specific users. 

Participants and Governance/Project Management 

First meeting of potential participants of FROST-2014 project was held in Sochi on 1-3 

March 2011 (more details are available in the meeting report at 

http://frost2014.meteoinfo.ru). The Science Steering Committee (SSC) composed of the 

leaders of participating organizations or their representatives was decided to oversee the 

project. 

The tentative SSC membership list is presented below: 

Dmitry Kiktev - 

Chair 

Hydrometcentre of Russia, Roshydromet 

Detlev Majewski COSMO 

Tiziana Paccagnella TIGGE-LAM 

Andrea Montani ARPA-SIMC 

Paul Joe WWRP Nowcasting Research Working Group 

Stephane Belair WWRP Working Group on Mesoscale Weather Forecasting 

Research 

George Isaac SNOW-V10, EC 

Roy Rasmussen NCAR 

Trond Iversen Hirlam/Aladin 

Pertti Nurmi Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research 

(JWGFVR) 

Yong Wang Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) 

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Jian Sun CMA 

Donghai Wang CMA/Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, University 

of Oklahoma 

Dmitri Moisseev Helsinki University/Vaisala 

Peter Romanov NOAA 

Valery Lukyanov Hydrometcentre of Russia, Roshydromet - Chief Meteorologist 

of «Sochi-2014» Olympics 

Michael Tsyrulnikov Hydrometcentre of Russia, Roshydromet – NWP 

Four Working Groups were established to deal with various components of the project 

more specifically: 

WG1: Observations and nowcasting (including Verification) 

Chair: V.Lukyanov/D.Kiktev, International Co-Chair: G.Isaac 

WG2: NWP, ensembles and assimilation (including Verification) 

Chair: M.Tsyrulnikov/G.Rivin, International Co-Chair: A.Montani 

WG3: IT (including graphical tools, formats, archiving and telecommunication) 

Chair: D.Kiktev 

WG4: Products, training, end user assessment and social impacts 

Chair: I.Rozinkina/D.Kiktev 

Implementation Plan 

Schedule for Implementation includes: 

• Concept document; 

• Installation of equipment; 

• Preparation and testing of forecasting systems; 

• Trainings and Workshops; 

• Formal Plans. 

Winter 2011-12 is the pre-trial period and winter of 2012-13 the trial period, so that all the 

technologies should be implemented and tested during these two periods. “Pre-olympic” 

would be the period just before the Olympics where final tuning is done. Data collected 

during the following winters will be used for high resolution weather forecasting systems 

testing. The system will be revised and further tested. During the winter of 2013/14, the 

Olympic Winter, the formal evaluation of nowcasts and forecasts will be made. A summary 

of lessons learned and results achieved will be presented at the concluding WWRP 

RDP/FDP meeting after the Olympics. 

Preliminary implementation plan is presented in Annex 3. The experience of the pre-trial 

period (winter 2011-2012) will help to specify further details and needs (sufficiency of the 

existing data channels, forecasters’ requests for more or better products, modifications of 

data exchange protocol, etc). 

Note: 

Road safety nowcasts and forecasts are of great interest for Olympic logistics and 

potentially can be a part of the project. However, it might be difficult to provide efficient 

support of this activity from the hosting side other than data storage and access facilities, 

as Roshydromet doesn’t have its own road AMSs and by now this activity has been 

beyond the traditional scope of Roshydromet. 

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Annex 1 

Automatic meteorological stations in the region of Sochi (including AMSs planned in 

Abkhazia) 

№ Name Coordinates Altitude, 

m 

Comments 

Latitude Longitude 

Roshydromet’s stations 

1 Magry 44.0167 39.1667 50 WMO index 37105 

2 Lazarevskoye 43.9000 39.3333 10 WMO index 37093 

3 Solokh-Aul 43.8000 39.6333 443 WMO index 37092 

4 Alpica-Service- 

1500 

43.6391 40.2933 1465 

5 Alpica-Service- 

1000 

43.6641 40.2927 1124 WMO index 37106 

6 Kepsha 43.6150 40.0491 180 WMO index 37100 

7 Adler airport 43.4391 39.9308 10 

8 Imeretinsky Bay 43.4000 39.9833 5 WMO index 37095 

9 Guzerpil 44.0000 40.1667 678 

10 Krasnaya Poliana 43.6823 40.2029 565 WMO index 37107 

11 Kordon Laura (in 

Esto-Sadok) 

43.6998 40.2652 575 

12 Aibga 43.6333 40.2833 2228 

13 Sochi 

agrometeorological 

station 

43.5733 39.7667 142 

14 Tuapse 44.0167 39.0167 39 

15 Jugba 44.3167 38.7167 23 

16 Gelendzik 44.1000 38.0000 27 

17 Novorossiisk 44.7167 37.8500 3 

18 Gorny 44.2833 39.2667 323 

Aviation Stations 

1 Dagomis 49.6500 39.6667 65 

2 Bocharov Ruchey 43.6208 39.7081 26 

3 Lunnaya Poilana 43.9344 39.8678 1797 

4 Orlenok 44.2635 38.8228 17 

5 Navaginka 43.6192 39.7342 15 

AMSs owned by «Roza Khutor» company (mountain skiing) 

1 RKHU1 (Aibga) 43.6233 40.3125 2320 Wind, T, RH, Pressure 

2 RKHU2 (Men’s 

Start) 

43.6336 40.3090 2137 Wind, T, RH, Liquid Precip, 

Reflected Short-Wave 

Radiation, Snow Height, 

Snow Surface Temperature 

3 RKHU3 (Women’s 

Start) 

43.6394 40.3131 1740 T, RH, Reflected Short- 

Wave Radiation, Snow 

Height, Snow Surface 

Temperature 

4 RKHU4 (Middle 

Point) 

43.6393 40.3131 1580 Wind, RH, Liquid 

Precipitation, Reflected 

Short-Wave Radiation, 

Snow Height, Snow 

Surface Temperature 

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5 RKHU5 (Snowboard 

Park) 

43.6453 40.3314 1229 T, RH 

6 RKHU6 (Finish) 43.6451 40.3316 984 T, RH 

AMSs owned by the «Krasnaya Poliana» Company 

Ski Jump - 800 43.6742 40.2401 Winter 2011-2012 

Ski Jump - 650 43.6773 40.2401 Winter 2011-2012 

AMSs owned by the «Olympstroy» Company 

1 Nordic / Combined 43.6772 40.2355 Winter 2011-2012 

2 Bobsledding-start 43.6626 40.2861 Winter 2011-2012 

3 Bobsledding-finish 43.6687 40.2889 Winter 2011-2012 

AMSs owned by the «Gazprom» Company (biathlon) 

1 Biathlon-1450 43.6921 40.3271 1455 principal AMS 

2 Biathlon-1400 43.6931 40.3188 1405 

3 Biathlon-1480 43.6947 40.3288 1480 

4 Biathlon-1500 43.6930 40.3352 1495 

AMSs on the towers of mobile communication 

1 Sochi-Plastunka 43.6398 39.7573 138 Vaisala WXT520 

2 

Vaisala 

Adler-Galitsino 43.5342 39.9875 468 WXT520+videocamera 

3 Esto-Sadok 43.6872 40.2564 511 Vaisala WXT520 

4 Matsesta-Chai 43.6266 39.8775 408 Vaisala WXT520 

5 Khosta-Akhun 

Lufft WS600-UMB 

mountain 43.5481 39.8508 663 +videocamera 

6 Krasnaya Poliana- 

487 

MK 43.6731 40.2008 

Vaisala WXT520 

7 Sochi-Lake 

389 

Kalinovoye 43,6162 39,8819 

Vaisala WXT520 

8 Adler-Aeroport-MK 43,4450 39,9200 131 Vaisala WXT520 

Planned (and negotiated) stations on the towers of mobile communication on the 

territory of Abkhazia 

1 Gagra 43.2500 40.2667 7 Priority 

2 Gagra Ridge 43.3500 40.2833 1630 

3 Pitsunda 43.1500 40.3500 0 Priority 

4 Sukhumi Botanic 

Garden 

43.0167 41.0167 37 

Priority 

5 Gadauty 43.1000 40.6333 51 Priority 

6 Ashera 43.0333 41.0000 0 

7 Lata 43.0333 41.5167 450 Priority 

8 Adjara 43.1167 41.7333 952 

9 Ochemchiry 42.7000 41.4667 5 

10 Galy 42.6333 41.7333 64 

11 Pskhu 43.4000 40.8167 668 Priority 

12 Duripsh 43.1667 40.6167 250 

13 Akhaly-Aphony 43.0833 40.7833 - 

14 Kodory 42.8500 41.4667 130 

15 Babushery 42.8667 41.1333 13 

16 Qwezany 42.8500 41.6833 255 Priority 

Air-quality control station (ecological) 

1 ACK-А №1 

Tsvetnoy Bulvar 43,60192 39,72456 

13


2 АПК-А №1 

Krasnaya Poliana 43,68149 40,20546 

3 АПК-А №2 

Imeretinsky Bay 43,40472 39,95944 

4 АПК-А №3 

Imeretinsky Bay 43,41056 39,95472 

5 Kazachiy Brod 43.5167 39.9833 approximate coords 

6 The 5th km 43.6667 40.1833 approximate coords 

There are several groups of AMSs: 

1) Roshydromet's stations 

Equipped mostly with Vaisala sensors: 

Temperature and Relative Humidity – Vaisala QMH102; 

Atmospheric Pressure – Vaisala PMT16A; 

Precip gauge – VRG-101 or equivalent; 

Wind - RM | Young 05103. 

Additional sensors: 

Visibility – Vaisala PWD20 (at Kepsha, Lazarevskoe, Solokh-Aul, Krasnaya 

Poliana); 

Ceilometer – Vaisala CL31 (at Adler-airport, Sochi, Kepsha, Esto-Sadok, Krasnaya 

Poliana). 

2) Basic stations at sport venues owned by private developers: 

a) Roza-Khutor (Mountain skiing) 

AMS Producer - SensAlpin GmbH, Switzerland. 

Temperature sensor – Campbell T107; 

Relative humidity – Hydroclip S3; 

Snow temperature - Campbell T107B; 

Snow surface temperature - IR AlpuG; 

Wind Sensor - RM Young 05103; 

Snow Height – Campbell SR50A; 

Atmospheric Pressure - Setra CS100; 

Precipitation Sensor - Campbell ARG100; 

Irradiance – (pyranometer) Campbell CS300. 

Transformer/ Logger - Campbell CR1000 

b) Biathlon and skiing combined complex (Owner – Gazprom. AMSs are equipped 

with Vaisala sensors) 

Parameter Sensor Number 

Atmospheric Pressure Baro-1QML 1 

Wind Speed WAA252 2 

Wind Direction WAV252 1 

Snow Temperature QMT110 1 

14


Cloud Base Height CL31 1 

Precipitation Amount OTT Pluvio2 1 

Total Solar Radiation CMP6 1 

Temperature and Humidity HMP155 2 

Snow Height IRU9000 1 

Snow State DSC111 1 

Remote Sensor of Surface 

Temperature 

DST111 1 

Visibility and Precipitation Type PWD22 1 

c) Skiing stadium 


Atmospheric Pressure Baro-1QML 1 

Wind Speed WAA252 1 





Temperature 

d) Topmost and lowermost points of biathlon tracks 

DST111 1 






Temperature 

DST111 1 

e) Other sport venues – to be ready during the winter 2011-2012. 

3) AMSs on the towers of mobile communication – Vaisala WXT520 or LUFFT 

WS600-UMB. 

15


Forecast data exchange requirements for FROST-2014 project 

Annex 2 

1) Two forms of data transfer: 

- Grid-point forecast (nowcast) fields for unified domains (GRIB1 or GRIB2 format); 

- Forecast time series at locations associated with observation sites (XML format). 

2) The finest available forecast resolution 

If we have 7 km/2 km as the finest resolution for FDP/RDP ensembles and 1 km/0.25 km 

resolution for FDP/RDP deterministic runs (we have such proposals) it is important to 

retain these resolutions for the exchange purposes. 

All forecasts should be interpolated to the unified common grids (see below) before their 

uploading. To avoid inflation of data amount due to the interpolation you can upload 

forecasts for the relevant subdomain of your original grid and provide us with your own 

interpolation program to the common grid. 

3) Common grid projection – a usual geographical Lon-Lat grid. No rotation. 

4) Grid domain, forecast range 

The following grid domains are proposed for data exchange only. All the participants are 

free to run their systems for larger domains. 

• Ensemble FDP 

The approximate grid spacing – 7 km. This means 0.0875°/0.063° along latitude/longitude 

at the latitude of Sochi. 

Krasnaya Poliana (43°41′0″N, 40°12′0″E) is suggested to be a reference grid point of the 

unified grid. As the main threat (southern cyclones) usually comes from the west the 

unified grid is not centred at Krasnaya Poliana - 1/3 of grid domain lies east from this 

reference grid point and 2/3 - west. 

The recommended grid domain - 286*285 grid points (Roughly ~2000*2000 km): 

- 171 steps west and 114 steps east of Krasnaya Poliana (25.2375°E-50.175°E); 

- 142 steps south and 142 steps north of Krasnaya Poliana (34.737(3)°N- 

52.629(3)°N). Such a coverage is broad enough for synoptic interpretation (see 

Fig.1 below). 

The recommended forecast range - 72 hr or more. 

Forecast time levels for grid-point fields: 0,3,6,9,12,15…hr (every 3 hours). 

Time resolution for pointwise time series at locations associated with observation sites: 1 

hr. 

The recommended forecast update frequency: 12 hr (2 times a day) or more frequently. 

Individual ensemble members rather than products – it gives more flexibility in further 

processing. 

• Ensemble RDP 

Unified grid step – 2 km. This means 0.0250°/0. 0180° along latitude/longitude at the 

latitude of Sochi. 

16


The recommended grid domain - 251*251 grid points (~500*500 km): 

150 grid steps west and 100 steps east of Krasnaya Poliana (36.45°E-42.7°E); 

125 grid steps south and 125 steps north of Krasnaya Poliana (41.4(3)°N-45.9(3)°N). 


Forecast time levels for grid-point fields: 0, 1, 2, 3…24 hr (to assess model potential for 

nowcasting). 

Time resolution for pointwise time series at observation sites: 30 min. 

Forecast update: every 12 hr or more frequently. 

Individual ensemble members. 

• Deterministic FDP 

Unified grid step – 1 km. This means 0.0125°/0.0090° along latitude/longitude at the 

latitude of Sochi. 

The recommended domain – 301*301 grid points (roughly 300*300 km): 

- 200 grid steps west and 100 steps east of Krasnaya Poliana (37.7°E-41.45°E); 

- 150 grid steps south and 150 steps north of Krasnaya Poliana (42.(3)°N-45.0(3)°N). 

The recommended forecast range - 24 hr. 

Forecast time levels for grid-point fields: 0, 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3…24 hr (to assess model 

potential for nowcasting). 

Time resolution for pointwise forecast time series at observation sites – 10 min. 

Forecast update: every 6 hr. 

• Deterministic RDP 

The unified grid spacing – 250 or 500 m depending on the highest available model 

resolution. The exact domain is to be specified later. 


Forecast time levels for grid-point fields: 0, 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 4, 5, 6…12 hr (to assess 

model potential for nowcasting). 

The recommended time resolution for pointwise time series at locations associated with 

observation sites - 10 min. 

The recommended update interval: every 6 hr – if there is no high-resolution data 

assimilation, 3 hr otherwise. 

Note: Optimal choice of the set of time levels is dependent on real model resolution. For 

250 m model grid spacing half an hour time resolution might not be sufficient. 

• Nowcasting 

The unified grid domain – as for Deterministic FDP component. 

The recommended forecast range – 3-6 hr. 

Nowcast temporal resolution: 

for grid-point fields – 10 minutes when required, otherwise 1 hr; 

for pointwise time series – 5 min when required, otherwise 1 hr. Precipitation can be 

provided in higher temporal resolution. 

The recommended update frequency: from 10 to 60 min depending on parameter type and 

data availability. 

17


Fig.2.1 Domains suggested for FROST-2014 forecast verifications: outer – for 

Ensemble FDP, intermediate – for Ensemble RDP, inner – for Deterministic FDP 

and nowcasting. 

5) Parameters: 

• For model ensembles and nowcasting: 

sensible weather and high-impact parameters - precipitation conditions (liquid and 

solid precipitation rate, freezing/frozen precipitation, accumulated snow), T2m, 

near-surface wind speed/direction/gusts, relative humidity, dew point temperature, 

visibility, cloudiness and cloud base and location of the zero-degree isotherm; 

Ensemble forecast fields of some other traditional synoptic variables (e.g., 500 hPa 

geopotential, T850) are of interest more for the purposes of synoptic interpretation 

rather than for forecast validation. 

• For deterministic runs: as for ensembles + 

- For grid fields: Temperature, relative humidity, geopotential and wind for 1000, 

925, 850, 700, 500 hPa levels; 

- For individual grid-points near locations of temperature/humidity and wind 

profilers: temperature, relative humidity, wind at original model levels + z-heights 

of original model levels; 

- MSLP; 

- … 

Other forecast variables and/or levels can be collected for diagnostic purposes, 

interpretation and development of conceptual models of regional hydrometeorological 

processes. However, the potentially available observational resources for their validation 

are quite limited. 

18


If meeting the listed requirements appears to be not feasible for a project participant, then 

relaxed requirements might be applied. 

19


FROST-2014 Implementation Plan 

Annex 3 

№ Milestones Deliverables 

2011-2012 (Pre-trial Phase) 

Executive Timing 

1.1 Preparation of concept paper Submission of concept paper 

to WWRP JSC 

D.Kiktev Nov-Dec 2011 

1.2 Organization of training couse for Enhanced practical skills and V.Lukyanov Oct 2011 

Olympic forecasters 

theoretical background in the 

Olympic forecasters team 

1.3 Participation of FROST-2014 

representative in the 5 th International 

Participation in the 

Workshop and Training 

A.Muravev 

P.Nurmi, 

Dec 1-7, 2011, 

BoM, Melbourne 

Verification Methods Workshop course 

E.Atlaskin 

with support of 

the WMO 

1.4 Organization of the Science Steering SSC meeting D.Kiktev Tentatively April 

Committee meeting 

2012 

1.5 Provide the participants with Time series at the project D.Kiktev Nov-Dec 2011 

observational time series for the 

previous winters 

web-site 

1.6 Provide access to the regional AMSs Authorised access to the D.Kiktev Nov-Dec 2011 

data and specify information available regional AMSs’ 

exchange procedures 

data for project participants 

1.7 Installation of Micro Rain Radar at Data flow to the project FTP- (to be specified) Winter 2011-2012 

Roza Khutor sport venue 

server or (for winter 2011/12) 

(MRR is being bought by the venue off-line archiving at local 

owner) 

computer 

1. 8 Integration of COSMO-7km EPS COSMO-7km EPS A.Montani From Dec 2011- 

SOCHMEL to the project (FDP- SOCHMEL data flow to the 

Mar 2012 

project component) 

project server 

1. 9 Integration of Deterministic COSMO- COSMO-7km with DA data D.Majewski Dec 2011-Mar 

7km with data assimilation (DA) to 

the project (RDP project component) 

flow to the project server 

2012 

1.10 Integration of Determistic COSMO- COSMO-7km without DA G.Rivin From Oct 2011 

7km without DA to the project data flow to the project 

server 

onwards 

1.11 Evaluation and comparison of results Preliminary assessment of G.Rivin 

Mar 2012 

from two identical COSMO-7km DA contribution to the I.Rozinkina 

systems -with and without DA (RDPcomponent) 

forecast skill 

1.12 Integration of deterministic COSMO COSMO-2km data flow to G.Rivin From Oct 2011 

2.2 km runs (downscaled from 7 km) 

(FDP) 

the project server 

onwards 

1.13 First evaluation of the existing 

GLAMEPS system for the region of 

Sochi (FDP - component) 

1.14 Technical work in setting up 

Harmonie to run in ensemble mode 

and a first run with HarmonEPS 

finished, in hindcast mode (RDPcomponent) 

1.15 First test of local calibrated 

GLAMEPS forecasts (RDP) 

1.16 First version of GEM-LAM at 1km 

grid spacing will be run (might not be 

real-time at that stage). It will not 

include yet the initial conditions from 

the external high-resolution land 

surface system (FDP) 

1.17 Results of experiments with 

downscalling for COSMO-RU02 

GLAMEPS data flow to the 


Set up HarmonEPS. 

Calculated series of 

HarmonEPS hindcasts. 

First test results for local 

calibrated GLAMEPS 

forecasts 

GEM-LAM at 1km grid 

spacing initialized from a 10 

or 15-km regional GEM with 

initial conditions from 

4DVAR. At that stage without 

external high-resolution land 

surface system. 

Prelimunary results with 

statistical adaptation 

correction scheme for 2012 

winter for T2m for at sport 

venues 

I-L. Frogner Dec 2011 

I-L. Frogner, 

T.Iversen 

I-L. Frogner, 

T.Iversen 

S.Belair 

J.Milbrandt 

I.Rozinkina 

Dec 2011 

Dec 2011 

Dec 2011 

April 2012 

20

1.18 Experiments with snow satellite 

analysis for COSMO-RU system 

(FDP, not real time at that stage) 

1.19 Integration of forecast/nowcast data 

flows, archiving of 

forecasts/nowcasts and visualization 

of their results on the project web-site 

1.20 Real-time access to TIGGE forecasts 

1.21 Meteorological support of sport test 

events with use of forecast 

information from the project 

participants 

1.22 Survey among Olympic forecasters 

(as a part of impact assessment 

studies) (FDP) 

1.23 Synoptic evaluation of available 

FROST-2014 forecasts/nowcasts for 

pre-trial winter (FDP?) 

1.24 Objective evaluation of Pre-trial 

forecasting/nowcasting results (RDP) 

1.25 Assessment of organizational 

feasibility to lend additional 

observational equipment from the 

project participants 

2.1 Discussion and decision on Akhun 

radar data format 

2.2 Traning course for Olympic 

forecasters. Might be combined with 

SSC meeting (2.2) - to be decided 

2.3 Organization of the Science Steering 

Committee meeting. Might be 

combined with training for 

forecasters (2.1) - to be decided. 

2.4 Integration of Akhun Doppler Radar 

into the project data sources 

2.5 Integration of wind and temperature 

profilers into the project data sources 

2.6 Integration of new Roshydromet’s 

MRR into the project data sources (it 

might be the second MRR in the 

region) 

2.7 Integration of microwave radiometer 

into the project data sources 


Preliminary results of 

COSMO-RU runs with snow 

satellite analysis 

Forecasts/Nowcasts of 

participating systems on the 

project web-site. Availability 

of results to Olympic 

forecasters via webinterface. 

Archiving of 

forecasts on the project 

server. 

Real-time access to TIGGE 

forecasts (with possibility to 

request new specific 

products) 

Preliminary practical 

acquaintance of Olympic 

forecasters with new 

nowcasting/forecasting 

products 

«Snapshot» of the current 

understanding and skill 

levels, needs and 

impressions 

Preliminary synoptic 

assessments of available 

FROST-2014 forecasts 

First evaluation results and 

assessments of practical 

predictability for Sochi region 

Possible correction 

(enhancement) of the 

observational setup 

2012-2013 (Trial Period) 

Coordinated decision on 

Akhun radar data format 

Enhanced practical skills and 

theoretical background in the 

team of Olympic forecasters. 

Might be combined with SSC 

meeting (2.2) with master- 

class for Olympic forecasters 

SSC meeting 

Might be combined with 

Traning course for Olympic 

forecasters (2.1) 

Data flow from the Akhun 

Doppler radar to the project 

data server 

Data flow from wind and 

temperature profilers to the 

project data server 

Data flow from the 

Roshydromet’s MRR to the 


Data flow from the 

microwave radiometer to the 


I.Rozinkina 

P.Romanov 

April 2012 

D.Kiktev Winter 2011-2012 

(Depending on 

the time of 

availability of 

forecasts) 

T. Paccagnella To be specified 

V.Lukyanov Jan-Mar 2012 

V.Oganesian October-March 

2011-2012 

T.Dmitrieva, 

V.Fedorova, 

E.Vasilev 

A.Muravev, 

P.Nurmi, 

E.Atlaskin 

V.Lukyanov 

D.Kiktev 

Yu.Melnichuk, 

D.Moisseev, 

D.Majewski, 

P.Joe, 

M.Tsyrulnikov 

G.Rivin 

V.Lukyanov 

April 2012 

Spring 2012 

Spring 2012 

Jul 2012 

Oct-Nov 2012 

D.Kiktev To be decided. 

Options: Spring 

2012 or Oct-Nov 

2012 (timed to 

Yu.Melnichuk 

Forecasters 

Training) 

Nov 2012 

A.Koldaev Nov 2012 



2.8 Radar precipitation data analysis on Radar precipitation data Y.Melnichuk Dec 2012 

21


regular grid with 2 km resolution analysis available on the D.Moisseev - to 


be confirmed 

2.9 Integration of additional AMSs on the Data from additional AMSs D.Kiktev As new AMSs are 

towers of mobile communication into 

the project data sources 

on the project server 

getting available 

2.10 Installation of extra-equipment from To be specified P.Joe,G.Isaac To be specified. 

the participants - COLDEX 

R.Rasmussen Depends on 1.25 

2.11 

instruments etc ? To be specified. 

Depends on 1.25. RDP? 

Integration of road AMSs into the Road stations data flow to N.Bocharnikov,T From Nov 2012 

project data sources (RDP) 

2.12 Road state nowcasting for regional 

highways (RDP) 

2.13 Road state nowcasting for regional 

highways (RDP) 

2.14 Integration of CARDS, ABOM, INTW 

and STEPS+ nowcasting systems to 

the project (FDP - component) 

2.15 Integration of WSDDM nowcasting 

system to the project (FDP?– to be 

specified) 

2.16 Integration of MeteoExpert 

nowcasting system to the project 

(FDP – component) 


MeteoTrassa data flow to the 


Road state nowcasting data 

flow tot he project server –to 

be confirmed 

CARDS, ABOM, INTW and 

STEPS+ data flow to the 


WSDDM data flow to the 


MeteoExpert data flow to the 


.Bazlova 

N.Bocharnikov,T 

.Bazlova 

P.Nurmi, 

E.Atlaskin 

From Nov 2012 

To be specified. 

P.Joe, G.Isaac From Nov 2012 

R.Rasmussen From Nov 2012 

N.Bocharnikov / 

T.Bazlova 

2.17 Integration of INCA INCA fields on 1km grid A. Kann, C. 

Gruber, B. Bica 

2.18 GEM-LAM system at 1km grid 

spacing ready to run in real time with 

initial conditions from the external 

land surface system. (FDP) 

2.19 First version of GEM-LAM at 250- 

500m grid spacing will be run (not 

necessarily in near real time). The 

land surface initial conditions (snow, 

surface temperatures, soil moisture) 

will be provided by an external land 

surface system. (RDP) 

2.20 Prepare and verify products specific 

to Sochi over winter 2011/2012. 

Account for extra observations (if 

feasible) (FDP) 

2.21 Preparing for boundary data started. 

Start testing HarmonEPS on winter 

2011/2012 if boundary data is 

available, in hindcast mode. 

Preparation for a pre-operational 

system for the Sochi area. 

Experimental studies started 

tentatively involving: resolution 

impact studies, multi-model 

combination, RUC, Hybrid EPS-DA, 

assimilation/evaluation 

cover. (RDP) 

of snow 

2.22 Extended test of local calibrated 

GLAMEPS forecasts with more sites 

and parameters including validation 

(RDP) 

2.23 Experiments with deterministic 

COSMO model with resolution about 

1 km (RDP) 

2.24 Implementation of snow satellite 

analysis into COSMO-RU02 in 

GEM-LAM at 1km grid 

spacing initialized from a 

regional GEM with initial 

conditions from 4DVAR and 

external high-resolution land 

surface system. 

GEM-LAM at 250-500m grid 

spacing, with upper-air 

driven and initialized by the 

GEM-LAM 1km above, and 

with the surface initialized by 

the external land surface 

system at 250-m grid 

spacing. 

GLAMEPS data flow to the 

project server. Verification 

results for winter 2011/2012. 

Assessment of HarmonEPS 

performance in hindcast 

mode 

Testing results for local 

calibrated GLAMEPS 

forecasts 

Experimental deterministic 

high-resolution COSMO runs 

at the project server 

Deterministic COSMO-RU02 

runs with snow satellite 

S.Belair 

J.Milbrandt 

S.Belair 

J.Milbrandt 

From Nov 2012 

1 Jan 2013, as 

soon as all input 

data are available 

1 Nov 2012 

1 Nov 2012 

I-L. Frogner 1 Nov 2012 

I-L. Frogner, 

T.Iversen 

I-L. Frogner, 

T.Iversen 

1 Nov 2012 

1 Nov 2012 

G.Rivin Winter 2012-2013 

G.Rivin 

I.Rozinkina 

1 Jan 2013 

22

operational mode (FDP) analysis 

2.25 Development of operational MOSpostprocessing 

for the region of 

mountain cluster 

2.26 Conversion of the global 3D-Var to 

the limited area (RDP) 

2.27 Implementation of Real-Time 

Forecast Verification (RTFV) system 

2.28 System Integration and Delivery 

System with timely access to data 

and timely product issue 



winter 2012/2013 (FDP) 

2.30 Objective evaluation of winter 

2012/2013 nowcasts and forecasts 

using non-standard virification 

methods 




participants 

2.32 Survey among Olympic forecasters 

and managers (as a part of impact 

assessment studies) (FDP) 




participants 

2.34 System Integration and Delivery 

System with timely access to data 

and timely product issue 

2.35 Technical work to set up ALADIN- 

LAEF post-processing domain 

(Ensemble FDP-component) 

2.36 First evaluation of ALADIN-LAEF 

system for the region of Sochi (FDP - 

component) 


Operational MOS 

postprocessing 

Results of experimental 

COSMO runs with 3D-Var 

DA 

Results of RTFV available 

for forecasters and project 

participants via web 

Forecast tables as a first 

guess 

Synoptic assessments of 

available FROST-2014 

forecasts 

Results of objective forecast 

evaluation using off-line new 

verification approaches 

Preliminary practical 

acquaintance of Olympic 

forecasters with new 

nowcasting/forecasting 

products 




impressions 

Practical experience of 

Olympic forecasters with 

new nowcasting/forecasting 

products 

Forecast tables as a first 

guess 

Implementation of extra postprocessing 

of operational 

ALADIN-LAEF forecasts 

ALADIN-LAEF data flow to 


P.Vasilev 1 Dec 2012 

M.Tsyrulnikov Winter 2012-2013 

A.Muravev From Dec 2012 

D.Kiktev Dec 2012 

T.Dmitrieva, 

V.Fedorova, 

E.Vasilev 

A.Muravev, 

P.Nurmi, 

E.Atlaskin 

April 2013 

Apr 2013 


V.Oganesian Oct-Mar 

2012/2013 


D.Kiktev Dec 2012 

F.Weidle Summer 2012 

F.Weidle Summer/autumn 

2012 

2013-2014 (Pre-Olympic, Olympic and Post-Olympic period) 

3.1 Final traning course for Olympic Enhanced practical skills and V.Lukyanov Oct-Nov 2012 

forecasters. Might be combined with theoretical background in the 

SSC meeting (3.2) - to be decided team of Olympic forecasters. 

Might be combined with SSC 

meeting (3.2) and training for 

Olympic forecasters 

3.2 Organization of the Science Steering SSC meeting 

D.Kiktev To be decided. 

Committee meeting. Might be Might be combined with 

Options: Spring 

combined with training for Olympic training for Olympic 

2013 or Oct-Nov 

forecasters (3.1)-to be decided. forecasters (3.1) 

2013 (timed to 

3.3 Integration of additional To be specified P.Joe, G.Isaac 

Final Training) 

To be specified. 

measurements (GPM, Ka Band etc.) 

into the project data sources – RDP. 

To be specified. Depends on 1.25 

D.Moisseev Depends on 1.25 

3.4 Implementation of regional 3D-Var Deterministic COSMO-RU M.Tsyrulnikov Oct 2013 

DA with COSMO-RU in operational 

mode (RDP) 

runs with 3D-Var DA 

3.5 Possible slight changes to the GEM- Possible slight changes to S.Belair 

1 Dec 2013 

LAM system at 1km grid spacing the GEM-LAM system at J.Milbrandt 

(FDP) 

1km grid spacing 

3.6 Final version of GEM-LAM at 250- Final version of GEM-LAM at S.Belair 

1 Dec 2013 

500m grid spacing will be integrated, 250-500m grid spacing J.Milbrandt 

with some modifications / 

improvements from the previous 

23

year (RDP) 

3.7 GLAMEPS: Take into account extra 

observations in real time in the dataassimilation 

and, if feasible, the 

ensemble generation (FDP) 

3.8 Feasibility studies for HarmonEPS in 

test-operational mode. High- 

resolution verification. (RDP) 

3.9 Quasi-operational probabilistic 

forecasts for several observational 

sites and parameters, possibly with 

hourly updates (RDP). 

3.10 Operational INCA analysis and 

nowcasting for Olympic domain 

3.11 Deterministic COSMO model runs 

with resolution about 1 km (RDP) 

3.12 Experiments with COSMO-EPS 

2.2.km Tecnology (RDP) 

3.13 Meteorological support of Olympics 

and Formal FDP 



winter 2013/2014 (FDP) 

3.15 Evaluation and intercomparison of 

nowcast/forecast results for the 

formal FDP period (FDP) 

3.16 Diagnostic non-standard verification 

of project nowcasts/forecasts (RDP) 

3.17 Survey among the Olympic 

forecasters and managers. (FDP) 

3.18 General impact assessment for the 

previous period targeting on Olympic 

forecasters and managers (FDP) 

3.19 Organization of the Science Steering 

Committee meeting. 

3.20 Organization of the Final Seminar. 

Discussion on publication plan 

3.21 Preparation of Report to WWRP 

Joint Scientific Committee (JSC) 

3.22 Support FROST-2014 http/ftp-server 

for further retrospective studies (e.g. 

in the context of data assimilation) 

3.23 Journal publications 


GLAMEPS real-time FDP 

runs with possible 

assimilation of regional 

observations 

HarmonEPS in testoperational 

mode. 

Quasi-operational calibrated 

EPS forecasts for several 

observation sites 

INCA deliverables (provided 

that input data are available 

in sufficient quantity and 

quality) 

Results of deterministic highresolution 

COSMO runs at 


Experimental ensemble highresolution 

COSMO-RU runs 

at the project server 

Operational practical use 

and demonstration of 

systems participating in the 

FDP project component 

Synoptic assessments of 

FROST-2014 nowcasts and 

forecasts 

I-L.Frogner 1 Dec 2013 

I-L.Frogner, 

T.Iversen 

I-L.Frogner, 

T.Iversen 

A. Kann, C. 

Gruber, B. Bica 

1 Dec 2013 

1 Dec 2013 

Winter 2013/2014 

G.Rivin Winter 2013/2014 

G.Rivin 

E.Astakhova 

A.Montani 

1 Dec 2013 

D.Kiktev Feb-Mar 2014 

T.Dmitrieva, 

V.Fedorova, 

E.Vasilev 

Evaluation results of FDP A.Muravev 

P.Nurmi 

Diagnostic verifications and 

assessments of practical 

predictability for the period of 

FROST-2014 activity 




impressions. 

General impact assessment 

for the period of project 

activity 

E.Atlaskin 

A.Muravev 

P.Nurmi 

E.Atlaskin and 

other project 

participants 

V.Oganesian 

V.Oganesian, 

SERA 

representative 

Autumn 2014 



Oct 2013-Mar 

2014 


SSC meeting D.Kiktev Spring 2014 

Final seminar. 

Publication plan. 

Project Report submitted to 

JSC 

Internet access to the 

FROST-2014 data server for 

research community 

D.Kiktev To be decided 

D.Kiktev To be specified 

D.Kiktev While interest 

exists 

24

Introduction 


Verification setup 

Annex 4 

Sochi-2014 Olympics and Paralympics will be held on February 8-23 and March 7-16, 

2014 correspondingly. Formal forecast evaluation period for the FDP component of 

FROST-2014 project is tentatively set up from 20 January to 20 March 2014 (it is to be 

approved by the SSC). Preliminary testing results will be obtained during the pre-trial 

(winter 2011-12) and final trial (winter 2012-13) periods. Along with formal evaluation in the 

framework of the demonstration project component various kinds of diagnostic verification 

will be implemented for better understanding of weak and strong points of the involved 

forecast systems. 

Nowcast and forecast data types to be verified 

• Grid-point fields 

Due to complexity of the region the available objective analysis is neither detailed nor 

reliable enough to be used as an etalon for forecasts validation. Thus, the grid-point fields 

will be verified mostly in the points with nearby observations. The precipitation fields will be 

also verified against radar composites with horizontal resolution of 2 km. Potentiality of the 

wind field verification on the basis of radar radial wind observations is also considered. 

• Individual pointwise time series (nowcasts, original and post-prosessed model) at 

locations associated with observation sites 

In order to assess deterministic high-resolution forecast performance of participating 

technologies various time series of near-surface parameters and vertical profiles are to be 

studied at AMSs, temperature/humidity and wind profilers, MRR(s) (MRR – Micro Rain 

Radar) locations (Annex 1). 

At profiler locations, model fields (temperature, humidity, horizontal wind) are to be verified 

up to 3 km above the land surface with the resolution of several tens of meters (to be 

detailed). 

MRR vertical resolution is adjustable. Typical values are 30-100 m. The maximum number 

of vertical steps is 31. The exact vertical structure is to be specified. 

As for SNOW-V10, it is of interest to quantify the added value of forecast refinement 

between: 

- Global model; 

- Regional model without and with its own data assimilation; 

- High-resolution model with and without data assimilation; 

- Post-processed model output (Kalman filter, MOS, 1D-model etc.); 

- Nowcasting (based on latest observations and blended with NWP). 

Verified parameters 

The nowcast and EPS output verification is proposed to concentrate on sensible weather 

and high-impact parameters: precipitation conditions, T2m, near-surface wind, visibility, 

25


cloud base, location of the zero isotherm. For deterministic forecasts an expanded list of 

parameters and levels will be used (Table 4.1). 

Nowcasting Deterministic 

Forecast: 

FDP 

Temperature T2m + 

See 

Relative 

Humidity 

Mean Sea Level 

Pressure 

Comment 

+ + 

See 

Comment 

Deterministic 

Forecast: 

RDP 

+ 

See 

Comment 

+ 

See 

Comment 

Ensemble 

Forecast: 

FDP 

Table 4.1 

Ensemble 

Forecast: 

RDP 

T2m T2m 

Ensemble 

mean & 

control run 

- + + Ensemble 

mean & 

control run 

Ensemble 

mean & 

control run 

Ensemble 

mean & 

control run 

Liquid Precip. 

Rate 

+ + + + + 

Solid Precip. 

Rate 

+ + + + + 

Freezing/Frozen 

Precip (if 

possible to 

single out) 

+ + + + + 

Accumulated 

snow 

+ + + + + 

Wind gusts + + + + + 

Wind Speed & + + 

+ 

+ + 

Direction 

See 

See 

Comment Comment 

Visibility + + + + + 

Cloud 

height 

base + + + + + 

Cloudiness + + + + + 

Height of the - + + + + 

zero isotherm 

Snow Surface ? + + - - 

Temperature 

Liquid water - - multi-level - - 

content, Drop 

? 

Size, Rain Rate, 

Reflectivity 

(where provided 

by models) – on 

the basis of 

MRR data 

Comment: Temperature, Relative Humidity and Wind forecast data are to be multi-level at 

grid-points associated with locations of temperature/humidity and wind profilers. 

26

Temporal resolution 


Various regional AMSs transmit their reports using different time steps. For example, the 

land-based AMSs used 10 min steps during the 2010-2011 winter. The AMSs on mobile 

communication towers reported more frequently. The exact frequency regime is stationdependent 

and it is to be specified. 

10-minutes temporal resolution is planned for the radar scans. 

The proposed temporal resolution for forecast and nowcast grid-point fields and time 

series at locations associated with observation sites is presented in «Forecast data 

exchange requirements for FROST-2014 project» (The multiple of native model time step 

can be used for pointwise time series as well). 

How the forecast fields are to be verified? 

For deterministic forecasts of such parameters as Temperature, Horizontal winds, 

Humidity, Surface pressure, Cloud base height, Cloudiness, Height of the zero isotherm, 

the basic scores for continuous variables will be used. For Precipitation rate, snowfall, 

accumulated snow, Wind gusts and Visibility additional scores will be specified. 

A unified analysis of radar and rain gauges data (radar QPE) with horizontal resolution 

about 2 km will be developed and used for verification of gridded precipitation products 

from the participating systems. Radar based verification techniques applied to precipitation 

fields are to be specified. 

A set of critical thresholds will be used to transform continuous variables into dichotomous 

events. These thresholds will be adjusted for the SOCHI region, considering the sport 

needs of the Olympic Games. Preliminary list of thresholds is presented in the Annex 5. In 

general SNOW-V10 thresholds are considered to be applicable for FROST-2014. 

Common verification measures for dichotomous variables (POD, FAR, TS, ETS, KSS, 

HSS) will be applied along with some novelty measures, especially for the most extreme 

events (SEDS, EDI). For EPS output, relevant probabilistic measures (ROC, Brier Score, 

Reliability Diagram and Frequency Histograms, BSS, RPS, CRPSS) are to be applied. 

Object-oriented verification, fuzzy verification, and conditional verification will be applied to 

the project nowcasts and forecasts. 

Real-time forecast verification will be implemented to at least a subset of forecast 

variables, and presented on the FROST-2014 web-site http://frost2014.meteoinfo.ru, 

whereas various kinds of diagnostic verification statistics can be produced in a delayed 

mode. 

27


Thresholds for ensemble forecast evaluation 

Annex 5 

The following thresholds are linked to the sport decision-making requirements for winter 

Olympics (Annex 6) and might be subjected to change in case of possible sport demands 

revision. 

Thresholds for new snow: 

Accumulation period [hrs] Thresholds [cm] 

1 

1, 2 

6 

2, 5, 15 

12 

15, 30 

24 

15, 30 

Thresholds for total precipitation: 

Accumulation period [hrs] Thresholds [mm of equivalent water] 

3 

6 

12 

24 

48 

72 

1, 5, 10, 15 

1, 5, 10, 15 

1, 5, 10, 20, 50 

1, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 

20, 50, 100, 150 

20, 50, 100, 150 

Thresholds for wind speed [m/s]: 3, 4, 5, 10, 11, 15, 17. 

Thresholds for wind gust [m/s]: 4, 5, 10, 14, 15, 17. 

Thresholds for T2m [°C]: -25, -20, -10, -5, 0, 5. 

(Instantaneous) thresholds for visibility [meters]: 20, 30, 50, 100, 250, 500, 1000. 

(Instantaneous) thresholds for the height of the zero isotherm [meters]: 50, 100, 200, 

300, 400, 500, 1000, 2000. 

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29

(FROST-2014) Concept paper - WMO

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