Agricultural Machinery and Equipment of the Future - Agritechnica
Agricultural Machinery and Equipment of the Future - Agritechnica
Agricultural Machinery and Equipment of the Future - Agritechnica
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<strong>Agricultural</strong> <strong>Machinery</strong><br />
<strong>Agricultural</strong> <strong>Machinery</strong><br />
<strong>Agricultural</strong> <strong>Machinery</strong> <strong>and</strong><br />
<strong>Equipment</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Future</strong><br />
Eastern Europe Conference <strong>Agritechnica</strong> 2011<br />
Hanover, <strong>the</strong> 16th <strong>of</strong> November, 2011<br />
Dr. Hermann Garbers, Chairman <strong>of</strong> VDMA <strong>Agricultural</strong> <strong>Machinery</strong><br />
<strong>Agricultural</strong> <strong>Machinery</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Equipment</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Future</strong><br />
Content:<br />
1. Introduction <strong>of</strong> VDMA <strong>Agricultural</strong> <strong>Machinery</strong><br />
2. Present state in <strong>the</strong> markets for agricultural machinery in Europe<br />
<strong>and</strong> worldwide<br />
3. <strong>Future</strong> trends<br />
- Economic <strong>and</strong> geographic trends<br />
- Technological trends in agricultural machinery <strong>and</strong> equipment<br />
Seite 1 •<br />
Seite 2 •<br />
1
<strong>Agricultural</strong> <strong>Machinery</strong><br />
1 VDMA <strong>Agricultural</strong> <strong>Machinery</strong> Association<br />
� VDMA in Frankfurt/Germany – Headquarters <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> German Engineering<br />
Federation<br />
<strong>Agricultural</strong> <strong>Machinery</strong><br />
German <strong>Agricultural</strong> <strong>Machinery</strong> –<br />
World leader in innovation <strong>and</strong> quality…<br />
� Success factors<br />
� Innovation<br />
� Average <strong>of</strong> 4 % regarding R&D quota � very high!<br />
� Dem<strong>and</strong> for high technological level on <strong>the</strong> home market<br />
� Time to market is crucial<br />
� Quality <strong>and</strong> Reliability<br />
� Highest product quality<br />
� Service quality<br />
– Get to know <strong>the</strong> individuality <strong>of</strong> customers‘ needs<br />
– Different degrees <strong>of</strong> technological maturity in global markets<br />
necessary<br />
– Highest reliability <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> machines supported by excellent service<br />
� Efficiency<br />
� with regard to economic, ecological <strong>and</strong> social conditions<br />
Seite 3 •<br />
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2
<strong>Agricultural</strong> <strong>Machinery</strong><br />
<strong>Agricultural</strong> Conditions 2011 (Europe)<br />
- Arable Farming / Harvest 2011<br />
� Oilseeds<br />
� Very low yields for rapeseeds, price still above average<br />
� Potatoes, Sugar Beet<br />
� High quantity <strong>and</strong> quality, lower price for potatoes than last year<br />
� Maize<br />
� Beneficial wea<strong>the</strong>r conditions, increase <strong>of</strong> biomass, early harvest<br />
� Grains<br />
� Difficult growing conditions on <strong>the</strong> field (drought in spring, too wet during<br />
harvest)<br />
� Quantity harvested:<br />
<strong>Agricultural</strong> <strong>Machinery</strong><br />
Wheat Price<br />
� EU 27: on average level <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> past years<br />
� High quantities in Central Europe (Pol<strong>and</strong>, Czech Rep., Romania) <strong>and</strong><br />
CIS (Russia, Ukraine <strong>and</strong> Kazakhstan)<br />
� Price levels for wheat <strong>and</strong> oilseeds generally good (over <strong>the</strong> average<br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> past years), but with some light decreasing trend for wheat<br />
Euronext, in Euro per ton<br />
Source: finanzen.net<br />
Seite 5 •<br />
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3
<strong>Agricultural</strong> <strong>Machinery</strong><br />
<strong>Agricultural</strong> Conditions in 2011<br />
- The o<strong>the</strong>r Sectors <strong>of</strong> Farming in Europe<br />
� Dairy Farms<br />
� Good economic climate due to high milk prices paid to farmers (in<br />
Germany currently 35 Eurocent/kg, similar in o<strong>the</strong>r European countries)<br />
� Investment gap for technology has been closed in 2011<br />
� Despite good economic conditions, structural change is continuing with a<br />
4% rate per year (= farms closing <strong>the</strong>ir doors)<br />
� Livestock sector<br />
� Pork price decrease, oversupply <strong>of</strong> market<br />
� Beef prices remain stable due to high dem<strong>and</strong><br />
� Wine Growers<br />
� Early harvest, generally good perspectives for <strong>the</strong> quality<br />
<strong>Agricultural</strong> <strong>Machinery</strong><br />
German <strong>Agricultural</strong> <strong>Machinery</strong> Industry<br />
8<br />
7<br />
6<br />
5<br />
4<br />
3<br />
2<br />
1<br />
0<br />
3,9<br />
4,5<br />
Turnover in Bn. Euro Nominal %-change<br />
4,7<br />
5,2<br />
6,1<br />
7,5<br />
Source: VDMA <strong>Agricultural</strong> <strong>Machinery</strong> Association<br />
5,6<br />
5,5<br />
6,7<br />
7,0<br />
Fläche für Grafik Fläche für Grafik<br />
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012e<br />
-5<br />
14<br />
5<br />
10<br />
17<br />
24<br />
-25<br />
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012e<br />
More than 70% <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> turnover is realized outside <strong>of</strong> Germany!<br />
-2<br />
22<br />
Seite 7 •<br />
Status <strong>of</strong> forecast: October 2011<br />
5<br />
Seite 9 •<br />
4
<strong>Agricultural</strong> <strong>Machinery</strong><br />
German Exports <strong>of</strong> <strong>Agricultural</strong> <strong>Machinery</strong><br />
according to Regions<br />
%-Veränderung Jan-Juli 2011 im Vergleich zum Vorjahr; Anteil der Regionen am deutschen L<strong>and</strong>technik-Export<br />
EU<br />
Übriges<br />
Europa<br />
Nordamerika<br />
Asien<br />
Australien-<br />
Ozeanien<br />
Afrika<br />
Lateinamerika<br />
20<br />
-Nord<br />
amerika<br />
10%<br />
Fläche für Grafik<br />
41<br />
Fläche für Grafik<br />
Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt, Daten abrufbar unter www.vdma.org => Statistikdatenbank<br />
<strong>Agricultural</strong> <strong>Machinery</strong><br />
15<br />
23<br />
29<br />
41<br />
54<br />
EU<br />
63%<br />
German <strong>Agricultural</strong> <strong>Machinery</strong> Exports<br />
- <strong>the</strong> main destinations<br />
Exports from Germany to …<br />
in Mill. Euro<br />
1200<br />
1000<br />
800<br />
600<br />
400<br />
200<br />
0<br />
Source: Federal Statistics Agency, VDMA<br />
-Latein<br />
amerika<br />
1%<br />
Afrika<br />
2%<br />
2008 2009 2010 2011e<br />
Fläche für Grafik Fläche für Grafik<br />
-Australien<br />
Ozeanien<br />
2%<br />
Asien<br />
5%<br />
Übriges<br />
Europa<br />
19%<br />
France<br />
Russia<br />
USA<br />
United Kingdom<br />
Pol<strong>and</strong><br />
Ne<strong>the</strong>rl<strong>and</strong>s<br />
Austria<br />
Italy<br />
Spain<br />
Ukraine<br />
Czech Rep.<br />
Switzerl<strong>and</strong><br />
Belgium<br />
Denmark<br />
Sweden<br />
Romania<br />
Belarus<br />
Hungary<br />
Norway<br />
Finl<strong>and</strong><br />
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5
<strong>Agricultural</strong> <strong>Machinery</strong><br />
Worldwide Turnover<br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Agricultural</strong> <strong>Machinery</strong> Industry<br />
Global Production Development in bn EUR <strong>and</strong> USD<br />
120<br />
100<br />
80<br />
60<br />
40<br />
20<br />
0<br />
52<br />
65<br />
67<br />
59<br />
Fläche 54 für Grafik<br />
Source: VDMA <strong>Agricultural</strong> <strong>Machinery</strong> Association<br />
<strong>Agricultural</strong> <strong>Machinery</strong><br />
74<br />
68<br />
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011e<br />
101<br />
Short-term Expectations <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> European<br />
<strong>Agricultural</strong> <strong>Machinery</strong> Manufacturers<br />
59<br />
83<br />
EUR USD<br />
+12-15%<br />
Question: Compared to <strong>the</strong> total development within <strong>the</strong> next 12 months: Please<br />
indicate your turnover expectation on <strong>the</strong> following markets.<br />
Eastern Europe<br />
East / South East Asia<br />
Latin America<br />
Central Europe (EU 12)<br />
Central / South Asia<br />
Australia / New Zeal<strong>and</strong><br />
Western Europe (EU 15)<br />
USA / Canada<br />
Africa<br />
below average<br />
Source: CEMA Business Barometer September 2011<br />
above average<br />
65<br />
86<br />
72<br />
97<br />
…<strong>and</strong><br />
2012?<br />
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6
<strong>Agricultural</strong> <strong>Machinery</strong><br />
Medium-term Market Trends (EUROPE)<br />
� Markets in EU remain stable<br />
� No fur<strong>the</strong>r growth in major markets like Germany, France, UK <strong>and</strong> Pol<strong>and</strong>,<br />
� Even some decreasing trends in Italy, Spain <strong>and</strong> Portugal due to general<br />
unstable economic situation,<br />
� Some growth is expected from Central Europe, esp. Romania, Hungary<br />
<strong>and</strong> Bulgaria<br />
� High dem<strong>and</strong> for modern agricultural machinery in <strong>the</strong> CIS<br />
� The mechanization level remains low compared to established markets,<br />
� Good harvest, higher yields contribute to more investment in agribusiness<br />
� Political stability, improving financial conditions <strong>and</strong> s<strong>of</strong>t-loans (Russia)<br />
� Strong orientation towards new technologies <strong>and</strong> HI-TEC machinery with<br />
scope on<br />
� Increasing efficiency <strong>and</strong> pr<strong>of</strong>itability <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> farmers<br />
� Successful management <strong>of</strong> risks<br />
� Diversification <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> farming sector<br />
<strong>Agricultural</strong> <strong>Machinery</strong><br />
Medium-term Market Trends (WORLD)<br />
� AMERICA - Fur<strong>the</strong>r growth expected (coming from South America)<br />
� The booming market in North America is supposed to calm down,<br />
� Fur<strong>the</strong>r growth in Brazil, Argentina <strong>and</strong> Paraguay expected<br />
� ASIA – High dem<strong>and</strong> for ag machinery as mechanization level is rising<br />
� China is already <strong>the</strong> second biggest market for agricultural machinery,<br />
� Annual dem<strong>and</strong> in China: 300,000 tractors (>25 hp), 120,000 combine<br />
harvesters <strong>and</strong> 50,000 rice pickers,<br />
� Rising dem<strong>and</strong> for larger tractors <strong>and</strong> modern implements,<br />
� India <strong>and</strong> South-Eastern Asia: Mechanization level is still low, but<br />
supposed to boost in <strong>the</strong> next 5 years<br />
� AFRICA <strong>and</strong> MIDDLE EAST – Wider Opportunities<br />
� Big potential in agricultural sector in Subsahara region, Iraq <strong>and</strong> Iran<br />
� European manufacturers in competition with Chinese <strong>and</strong> Indian br<strong>and</strong>s<br />
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7
<strong>Agricultural</strong> <strong>Machinery</strong><br />
Technology trends<br />
� Precision Agriculture<br />
� Systematic part area specific cultivation <strong>of</strong> farml<strong>and</strong><br />
� Digital mapping as requirement<br />
� Exact application <strong>of</strong> seed, fertilizers <strong>and</strong> pesticides<br />
� Automation on <strong>the</strong> field <strong>and</strong> in <strong>the</strong> stable<br />
� Automatic headl<strong>and</strong> management by GPS- <strong>and</strong> sensor-controlled<br />
tractors without redundant driving<br />
� Time-efficient milking robots for optimal milk production<br />
� Intelligent, computer-aided imaging <strong>of</strong> production chains by electronic<br />
process control<br />
<strong>Agricultural</strong> <strong>Machinery</strong><br />
� Data communication from <strong>the</strong> farm PC to <strong>the</strong> agricultural machine on<br />
<strong>the</strong> field to <strong>the</strong> transport logistics chain<br />
� Optimization <strong>of</strong> all processes<br />
Technology trends<br />
� Sustainable motor <strong>and</strong> gear transmission technologies<br />
� Distinct reduction <strong>of</strong> emissions <strong>and</strong> reduced fuel consumption <strong>of</strong><br />
agricultural machinery <strong>and</strong> tractors by:<br />
� Innovative exhaust gas treatment systems (particulate filters)<br />
� Exhaust gas recirculation systems<br />
� Electronic injection systems<br />
� Continuously controllable gear transmission<br />
� 91% reduction <strong>of</strong> particulate emissions in <strong>the</strong> past two years (comparison<br />
exhaust gas stage III B to III A)!<br />
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8
<strong>Agricultural</strong> <strong>Machinery</strong><br />
Technology trends for electric <strong>and</strong> electronic<br />
� Electric drives<br />
� <strong>Future</strong> task for agricultural technology<br />
� Independence <strong>of</strong> fossil fuels<br />
� Economic efficiency<br />
� Technological precision<br />
� Ecological responsibility<br />
� Current developments<br />
� Electro-driven auxiliary aggregates for a precise, continuous control<br />
� Hybrid drive (diesel-electric)<br />
� Drive with integrated generators („micro hybrids“)<br />
� Transparency<br />
� Identification technologies<br />
<strong>Agricultural</strong> <strong>Machinery</strong><br />
� RFID (Radi<strong>of</strong>requency-Identification) <strong>and</strong> barcode systems to create<br />
transparency in <strong>the</strong> whole agrarian production process, e.g.<br />
„transparent process chain from green fodder harvest to <strong>the</strong> milk<br />
bottle in <strong>the</strong> supermarket chain“<br />
<strong>Future</strong> mission <strong>of</strong> agricultural technology industry in<br />
Germany <strong>and</strong> Europe<br />
Focusing on cross-linked<br />
high-tech solutions<br />
Security in <strong>the</strong> areas <strong>of</strong> food,<br />
energy <strong>and</strong> environment for<br />
<strong>the</strong> society<br />
Seite 18 •<br />
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9
<strong>Agricultural</strong> <strong>Machinery</strong><br />
Thank you for your attention!<br />
Seite 20 •<br />
10
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