2011 Helicopter Market Forecast - Rolls-Royce

Rolls-Royce Market Overview
10-year Helicopter Industry Market Forecast
2011-2020
© 2011 Rolls-Royce plc
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Introduction
� Rolls-Royce 10-year turbine rotorcraft market forecast
� Covers Civil and Military Original Equipment Manufacture
(OEM) production turbine helicopters
� Excludes military remanufacturing / major upgrade programs
� Based on:
� Civil customer new requirements and fleet replacement
forecasts
� Military new requirements and fleet replacement forecasts
� Government acquisition plans
� OEM production plans
� Customer input
� Industry publications and databases
� Public domain information

Rotorcraft Forecast 2011-2020 – Summary
� Rolls-Royce predicts a near-term recovery in civil markets,
with a strong long-term underlying demand for both civil and
military helicopter segments
� Over the next 10 years, Rolls-Royce forecasts over 16,970
turbine rotorcraft deliveries, worth $140 billion
� 10,900 civil rotorcraft, worth $34 billion
� 6,070 military rotorcraft, worth $106 billion
� $12.4 billion turbine engine market
� Environment, Performance and Value continue to drive new
designs
� Underlying strong long-term demand for vertical lift

Rotorcraft Units
Turbine Powered Rotorcraft Forecast
2011-2020
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
10,900 Civil Units
6,070 Military Units
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Rotorcraft Turbine Engine Sales Forecast
2011-2020 by Units
Turbine Engine Sales (units)
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Singles Light Twins Intermediate Medium Heavy
~2 Ton ~3.5 Ton ~5 Ton ~10 Ton >10 Ton
27,000 OEM Engines
Civil
Defense

Rotorcraft Turbine Engine Sales Forecast
2011-2020 by Value
~2 Ton ~3.5 Ton ~5 Ton ~10 Ton >10 Ton
$12.4 B OEM Value

Total Rotorcraft Forecast Comparison
2009 / 2010 / 2011
Units
2400
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Total Deliveries
2011 16,970
2010 16,446
2009 15,711

Civil Rotorcraft Forecast

Civil Turbine Rotorcraft Market
� Single-engine rotorcraft continue to lead market in unit volume
� Economics and operating cost benefits of singles
� Entry level turbines have potential to expand the operator base to customers
previously excluded or limited to used and/or surplus helicopters
� Underlying international demand for police, law enforcement, corporate, EMS
and utility helicopters
� Fuel situation may move single engine operators from piston to turbine
� New twin engine models stimulating market demand
� All OEM’s introducing new products
� Longer range over-water missions to more distant offshore platforms
� Market drivers:
� Emerging market interest in twins for urban areas in some markets (Europe,
Japan)
� Emerging markets (e.g. India, Brazil, China)
� Enhanced value proposition and performance through application of new
technology
� Fleet demographics – 43% of global fleet over 25 years of age
� China – impact of opening of civil airspace to be determined
� Used rotorcraft availability
� Access to favorable financing terms

Civil Turbine Rotorcraft Forecast
� 10,900 Civil rotorcraft deliveries
� Singles (60%) and light twins (20%) lead the market by units
� Airframe value $34 billion
� Intermediates (30%) and light twins (24%) lead the market in
value
� Engine OEM value $4.6 billion
� Singles (32%) lead the market in value, followed by
intermediates (27%) and light twins (25%)
� Lifetime aftermarket value approximately 3-4 times OEM value
� Excludes military surplus rotorcraft deliveries and aircraft
upgrades
� Includes paramilitary market

Rotorcraft Sales (units)
Civil Rotorcraft Sales by Class
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Heavy
Medium
Intermediate
Light Twins
Singles

Military Rotorcraft Forecast

Military Turbine Rotorcraft Market
� Global Military Engagements
� Op Tempo continues to be high, but likely to decline beyond 2015-2016
� Harsh operating environments – sand, salt, brown-outs typical
� Importance of hot & high operations
� 6K, 95°F the new standard
� Humanitarian Relief Efforts
� Hurricanes, floods, tsunami, earthquakes strain multiple nations’ resources
� Fleet demographics
� Near term continues to focus on delivering derivatives /upgrades to fleet
� US Army JMR initiates official assessment of new technologies, designs,
capabilities needed to address future vertical lift requirements
� Emergence of new heavy-lift requirements
� Emerging operational scenarios require very large VTOL aircraft
� Introduction of new technology
� Lower IR and noise signatures
� Digital cockpit
� HUMS, Conditioned Based Maintenance (CBM), intelligent diagnostics
� X-2 and X-3 hybrid propulsion platforms
� Manned/Unmanned/ optionally manned (MUM) Teaming integrating multiple
UAS platforms and real-time video delivery
� Autonomous cargo delivery and re-supply

Military New Build Turbine Rotorcraft
Forecast
� 6,070 Military rotorcraft deliveries
� Mediums (54%) lead the market by units
� Light, Heavy, Intermediate split the remaining units evenly
� Airframe value $106 billion
� Mediums (54%) and Heavy (35%) lead the market in value
� Engine value $7.8 billion
� Mediums (51%) and Heavy (31%) lead the market in value

Rotorcraft Sales (units)
Military OEM Rotorcraft Sales - Segmentation
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Heavy
Medium
Intermediate
Light Twins
Singles

Conclusion
� Over 16,900 new rotorcraft forecasted in 10-year period
� >$12 billion turbine engine market
� Environment, Performance, and Value continue to drive new
designs
� Near term recovery in the civil market underpinned by market
fundamentals
� Underlying strong long-term demand for vertical lift
� Global markets show continued requirement for helicopters
� Fleet demographics driving replacement demand
� Technology improvements flowing into new products
� Emerging markets offer substantial upside

Rolls-Royce Contacts
David Newill
Director, Market Research & Analysis
(317) 230-4071
Email: david.newill@rolls-royce.com
Matt Haugk
Vice President, Marketing, Sales and Customer Operations
(317) 230-3883
Email: matthew.p.haugk@rolls-royce.com