World Nut & Dried Fruit Congress BUDAPEST 2011 - Myfruit

Round Tables
8
Almonds
Almonds
Chairman:
Craig Duerr, Campos Brothers, USA
Members of the Panel:
Mark Jansen, Ago Dermenjian, Mai Lindberg, Antonio Pont Jr.
ESTIMATED WORLD ALMONDS PRODUCTION Kernel basis - Metric Tons
2010/2011 2011/2012
COUNTRY
BEGINNING CROP TOTAL ENDING BEGINNING CROP TOTAL ENDING
STOCK SUPPLY STOCK STOCK SUPPLY STOCK
USA*
145,909 721,636 867,545 123,797 123,797 801,818 925,615 118,025
SPAIN
5,000 35,000 40,000 0 0 65,000 65,000 10,000
AUSTRALIA
0 40,000 40,000 0 0 45,400 45,400 0
TURKEY
0 16,000 16,000 0 0 16,000 16,000 0
TUNISIA
1,300 12,000 13,300 1,600 1,600 12,000 13,600 1,600
IRAN
0 12,000 12,000 0 0 12,000 12,000 0
MOROCCO
0 9,000 9,000 0 0 9,000 9,000 0
GREECE
0 8,000 8,000 500 500 8,000 8,000 0
CHILE
0 10,000 10,000 0 0 10,000 10,000 0
ITALY
0 6,000 6,000 500 500 12,000 12,500 500
SYRIA
0 5,000 5,000 0 0 5,000 5,000 0
OTHERS
0 30,000 30,000 0 0 30,000 30,000 0
TOTAL 152,209 904,636 1,056,845 126,397 126,397 1,026,218 1,152,115 130,125
CONSUMPTION (TOTAL SUPPLY - ENDING STOCK)
*USA CROP ACCOUNTS FOR 2% INEDIBLE & PROCESS LOSS
930,448 1,021,990
THE ASSUMPTIONS- USA:
• 736,363MT (1.62B LBS, RECEIPTS) 2010/2011
• 740,909MT (1.63B LBS, SHIPMENTS) 2010/2011
• 818,181MT (1.80B LBS – 2%) 2011 CROP
• NASS Subjective of 795,454MT (1.75B LBS)
has been low by 4% on average over the past 3 years.
• 807,272 (1.776B LBS SHIPMENTS) 2011/2012
· World consumption grew by 10.4% in 2010/2011 during one
of the most depressed world wide economy’s of all time.
· Almonds are the most affordable tree nut.
· Almonds lead all tree nuts in global new product introductions.
· Ending stock continues to shrink as a % of shipments
· Which makes for a very difficult transition
· Larger than expected loses during harvest
· The per-capita consumption in the USA is more than 11 times
that of the per-capita consumption in China and 18 times that
of the per-capita consumption in India.
· This means enormous growth potential.