Exercises in Life Insurance Mathematics
Exercises in Life Insurance Mathematics
Exercises in Life Insurance Mathematics
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<strong>Exercises</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong><br />
Edited by<br />
Bjarne Mess<br />
Jakob Christensen<br />
University of Copenhagen<br />
Laboratory of Actuarial <strong>Mathematics</strong>
Introduction<br />
This collection of exercises <strong>in</strong> life <strong>in</strong>surance mathematics replaces the collection of<br />
Steen Pedersen and all other exercises and problems <strong>in</strong> any text or article <strong>in</strong> the<br />
FM0L curriculum.<br />
The follow<strong>in</strong>g abbreviations are be<strong>in</strong>g used for the contributors of exercises:<br />
AM Bowers et al. “Actuarial <strong>Mathematics</strong>”,<br />
Society of Actuaries, Itasca, Il 1986<br />
BM Bjarne Mess<br />
BS Bo Søndergaard<br />
FW Flemm<strong>in</strong>g W<strong>in</strong>dfeld<br />
JC Jakob Christensen<br />
JH Jan Hoem “Elementær rentelære”,<br />
Universitetsforlaget, Oslo, 1971.<br />
MSC Michael Schou Christensen<br />
MS Mogens Steffensen<br />
RN Ragnar Norberg<br />
SH Svend Haastrup<br />
SK Stephen G. Kellison “The theory of Interest”,<br />
Richard D. Erw<strong>in</strong>g, Inc., Homewood, Il 1970<br />
SP Steen Pedersen “Opgaver i livsforsikr<strong>in</strong>gsmatematik”<br />
SW Schwartz “Numerical Analysis”, Wiley, 1989<br />
Copenhagen, August 2, 1997<br />
Bjarne Mess<br />
Jakob Christensen
4 <strong>Exercises</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong><br />
<strong>Exercises</strong><br />
1. Interest<br />
FM0 S91, 1 FM0 S92, 1 FM0 S93, 1<br />
FM0 S93, 2 FM0 S94, 1<br />
Exercise 1.1 Show that an| < an| < än| when i > 0.<br />
Exercise 1.2 Show that an|/n decreases as n <strong>in</strong>creases and i > 0.<br />
Exercise 1.3 Show that an|(i1)/an|(i2) decreases as n <strong>in</strong>creases if i1 > i2.<br />
(JH(1), 1971)<br />
(JH(2), 1971)<br />
(JH(3), 1971)<br />
Exercise 1.4 A man needs approximately $2.500 and raises <strong>in</strong> that connection a<br />
loan <strong>in</strong> a bank. The pr<strong>in</strong>cipal, which is to be fully repaid after 6 months, is $2.600.<br />
From this amount the bank deducts the future <strong>in</strong>terest $84,50 and other fees of $5,70,<br />
so that the bank pays out the man $2.509,80 cash. The <strong>in</strong>terest rate of the bank is<br />
6.5%.<br />
(a) What is the effective <strong>in</strong>terest rate p. a. for the bank?<br />
(b) What is the effective <strong>in</strong>terest rate p. a. for the borrower?<br />
(JH(4 rev.), 1971)<br />
Exercise 1.5 One day a company receives an american loan offer: Pr<strong>in</strong>cipal of<br />
$5.000.000, rate of course 99% and nom<strong>in</strong>al <strong>in</strong>terest rate 6.5%. The loan is free of<br />
<strong>in</strong>stallments for 5 years and is after that to be amortized over 15 years: Interests<br />
and <strong>in</strong>stallments are due annually. Assume that the dollar-rate of exchange decreases<br />
exponentially from DKK 6,75 at the <strong>in</strong>itial time to DKK 4,75 at the end of the loan.<br />
How can one determ<strong>in</strong>e the effective <strong>in</strong>terest rate of the loan?
Interest 5<br />
(SP(19))<br />
Exercise 1.6 By calculation of the <strong>in</strong>terest rate for a fraction of a year, a bank will<br />
usually calculate with l<strong>in</strong>ear payment of <strong>in</strong>terest <strong>in</strong>stead of exponential payment of<br />
<strong>in</strong>terest. If the <strong>in</strong>terest rate is i p. a. and we have to calculate <strong>in</strong>terest for a period<br />
of time α (0 < α < 1), the bank will calculate <strong>in</strong>terest as αi per kr. 1. – <strong>in</strong> capital,<br />
<strong>in</strong>stead of calculat<strong>in</strong>g the <strong>in</strong>terest as<br />
(1 + i) α − 1<br />
per. kr. 1. – <strong>in</strong> capital. Is this for the benefit of the borrower?<br />
(JH(7), 1971)<br />
Exercise 1.7 A man is go<strong>in</strong>g to buy new furniture on an <strong>in</strong>stallment plan. In the<br />
hire-purchase agreement he f<strong>in</strong>ds the follow<strong>in</strong>g account:<br />
What effective <strong>in</strong>terest rate p. a.<br />
Cash payment for the furniture $6.306,00<br />
− In advance to the salesman $2.217, 00<br />
= Net balance $4.089,00<br />
+ Installment fee for 18 mths. $501, 00<br />
= Net balance for <strong>in</strong>stallment $4.590, 00<br />
The monthly <strong>in</strong>stallments are $255, 00<br />
(JH(10), 1971)<br />
Exercise 1.8 A man has been promised some money. He can choose from two<br />
alternatives for the payment.<br />
Under alternative (i) A5 = $4.495 and A9 = $5.548 are paid out after 5 and 9 years<br />
respectively.<br />
Under alternative (ii) B7 = $10.000 is paid out after 10 years.<br />
Denote the market <strong>in</strong>terest rate by i.<br />
For which value (values) of i is (i) just as good as (ii), and when is (i) more profitable<br />
for the man? What if A9 = $5.562, i. e. $14 more?<br />
(JH(11), 1971)
6 <strong>Exercises</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong><br />
Exercise 1.9 A says to B: “I would like to borrow $208 <strong>in</strong> one year from today.<br />
In return for your k<strong>in</strong>dness I will pay $100 cash now, and $108,15 <strong>in</strong> two years from<br />
today by the end of the loan.”<br />
What is the effective <strong>in</strong>terest rate p. a. for B if he accepts this?<br />
(JH(12), 1971)<br />
Exercise 1.10 Consider a usual annuity loan with pr<strong>in</strong>cipal H, <strong>in</strong>terest rate i and<br />
n <strong>in</strong>stallments. Show that the <strong>in</strong>stallment which falls due <strong>in</strong> period t is<br />
Ft =<br />
i(1 + i)t−1<br />
(1 + i) n − 1 H,<br />
and f<strong>in</strong>d an expression for the rema<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g debt immediately after this period.<br />
(SP(6))<br />
Exercise 1.11 Consider a l<strong>in</strong>early <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g annuity. At time t = 1, 2, . . . the<br />
amount t is be<strong>in</strong>g paid. The present value of this cash flow is denoted by Ian |.<br />
(a) Show that<br />
and <strong>in</strong>terpret this equation <strong>in</strong>tuitively.<br />
n−1 <br />
Ian| =<br />
(b) Give an explicit expression for Ian|.<br />
t|an−t|, t=0<br />
(c) What does the symbol Ian| mean? Give expressions correspond<strong>in</strong>g to the ones<br />
from (a) and (b).<br />
(SP(10))<br />
Exercise 1.12 A person has a table of annual annutities with different <strong>in</strong>terest rates<br />
and durations to his disposal. However, he needs some present values of half-year<br />
annuities. These annuities do all have the same <strong>in</strong>terest rate and the correspond<strong>in</strong>g<br />
whole-year annuities can be found <strong>in</strong> the table.<br />
What is the easiest way to f<strong>in</strong>d the desired annuities?<br />
(SP(11))
Interest 7<br />
Exercise 1.13 A debtor is go<strong>in</strong>g to pay an amount of 1 some time <strong>in</strong> the future.<br />
He does not know this po<strong>in</strong>t of time <strong>in</strong> advance; he only knows that it is a stochastic<br />
variable T with a known distribution. Now consider the expected present value<br />
denoted by<br />
A δ<br />
(T ) = E(e −δT ).<br />
(a) Show that the variance of the present value is given by<br />
Var(e −δT ) = A 2δ<br />
(T ) − (Aδ (T ) )2 .<br />
Now assume that creditor has to pay a cont<strong>in</strong>uous T -year annuity. The present value<br />
. Let the expected present value be denoted by<br />
is a δ<br />
T |<br />
(b) Show that<br />
and <strong>in</strong>terpret the equation.<br />
a δ<br />
(T ) = E(aδ T | ).<br />
A δ<br />
(T ) = 1 − δa δ<br />
(T )<br />
(c) Give an expression for the variance Var(aδ T | ) correspond<strong>in</strong>g to the one from (a).<br />
(d) Show that<br />
A δ<br />
(T ) > v ET ,<br />
and f<strong>in</strong>d a similar <strong>in</strong>equality for a δ (T ). (H<strong>in</strong>t: Use Jensen’s <strong>in</strong>equality.)<br />
(e) F<strong>in</strong>d at least two situations where these considerations are relevant.<br />
(SP(16))<br />
Exercise 1.14 Consider a loan, pr<strong>in</strong>cipal H, nom<strong>in</strong>al <strong>in</strong>terest rate i1, rate of course<br />
k and <strong>in</strong>stallment Ft <strong>in</strong> period t, where t = 1, . . . , N. Show that the effective <strong>in</strong>terest<br />
rate ie satisfies<br />
where<br />
ie =<br />
S = 1<br />
H<br />
1 − S<br />
k − S i1<br />
N<br />
t=1<br />
Ftv t<br />
e .<br />
(SP(20))<br />
Exercise 1.15 A loan with pr<strong>in</strong>cipal H and fixed <strong>in</strong>terest rate i1 has to be amortized<br />
annually over a period of N years. The borrower can each year deduct half the <strong>in</strong>terest
8 <strong>Exercises</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong><br />
expenses on his tax declaration. Construct the <strong>in</strong>stallment plan <strong>in</strong> a way so that the<br />
amount of amortisation m<strong>in</strong>us deductible (actual net payment) will be the same <strong>in</strong><br />
all periods (assume tax is payable by the end of each year). F<strong>in</strong>d the annual net<br />
<strong>in</strong>stallment.<br />
(RN “Opgaver til FM0 (rentelære)” 18.05.93)<br />
Exercise 1.16 Consider a general loan. Show that for t ≥ 1 we have<br />
At = (1 + i1)Rt−1 − Rt<br />
Rt =<br />
n−t<br />
j=1<br />
v t<br />
1Rt = H −<br />
At+jv j<br />
1<br />
t<br />
j=1<br />
Ajv j<br />
1<br />
(1.1)<br />
(1.2)<br />
with the use of standard notation. Formula (1.1) is called the prospective formula for<br />
the rema<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g debt. Formula (1.2) is called the retrospective formula for the rema<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g<br />
debt.<br />
(JH(20), 1971)<br />
Exercise 1.17 A loan is be<strong>in</strong>g repaid by 15 annual payments. The first five <strong>in</strong>stallments<br />
are $400 each, the next five $300 each, and the f<strong>in</strong>al five are $200 each. F<strong>in</strong>d<br />
expressions for the rema<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g debt immediately after the second $300 <strong>in</strong>stallment –<br />
(a) prospectively,<br />
(b) retrospectively.<br />
(SK(1) p. 122, 1970)<br />
Exercise 1.18 A loan of $1.000 is be<strong>in</strong>g repaid with annual <strong>in</strong>stallments for 20 years<br />
at effective <strong>in</strong>terest of 5% . Show that the amount of <strong>in</strong>terest <strong>in</strong> the 11th <strong>in</strong>stallment<br />
is<br />
50<br />
.<br />
1 + v10 (SK(10) p. 123, 1970)<br />
Exercise 1.19 A borrower has mortgage which calls for level annual payments of 1 at<br />
the end of each year for 20 years. At the time of the seventh regular payment he also
Interest 9<br />
makes an additional payment equal to the amount of pr<strong>in</strong>cipal that accord<strong>in</strong>g to the<br />
orig<strong>in</strong>al amortisation schedule would have been repaid by the eighth regular payment.<br />
If payments of 1 cont<strong>in</strong>ue to be made at the end of the eighth and succed<strong>in</strong>g years<br />
until the mortgage is fully repaid, show that the amount saved <strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong>terest payments<br />
over the full term of the mortgage is<br />
1 − v 13 .<br />
(SK(16) p. 124, 1970)<br />
Exercise 1.20 A man has some money <strong>in</strong>vested at an effective <strong>in</strong>terest rate i. At<br />
the end of the first year he withdraws 162.5% of the <strong>in</strong>terest earned, at the end of<br />
the second year he withdraws 325% of the <strong>in</strong>terest earned, and so forth with the<br />
withdrawal factor <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> arithmetic progression. At the end of 16 years the<br />
fund exhausted. F<strong>in</strong>d i.<br />
(SK(40) p. 127, 1970)<br />
Exercise 1.21 A loan of a 25| is be<strong>in</strong>g repaid with cont<strong>in</strong>uous payments at the annual<br />
rate of 1 p. a. for 25 years. If the <strong>in</strong>terest rate i is 0.05, f<strong>in</strong>d the total amount of <strong>in</strong>terest<br />
paid dur<strong>in</strong>g the 6th through the 10th years <strong>in</strong>clusive.<br />
(SK(42) p. 127, 1970)<br />
Exercise 1.22 After hav<strong>in</strong>g made six payments of $100 each on a $1.000 loan at<br />
4% effective, the borrower decides to repay the balance of the loan over the next five<br />
years by equal annual pr<strong>in</strong>cipal payments <strong>in</strong> addition to the annual <strong>in</strong>terest due on<br />
the unpaid balance. If the lender <strong>in</strong>sists on a yield rate of 5% over this five-year<br />
period, f<strong>in</strong>d the total payment, pr<strong>in</strong>cipal plus <strong>in</strong>terest, for the n<strong>in</strong>th year.<br />
(SK(45) p. 127, 1970)<br />
Exercise 1.23 A student has heard of a bank that offers a study loan of L = 10.000<br />
kr. The rate of <strong>in</strong>terest is 3% p. a. and the student applicates for the loan on the<br />
follow<strong>in</strong>g conditions:<br />
(i) The first m = 5 years he will only pay an <strong>in</strong>terest of 300 kr. per year.<br />
(ii) After that period of time he will pay <strong>in</strong>terests and <strong>in</strong>stallments of 900 kr. per year<br />
until the loan is fully amortized (the last <strong>in</strong>stallment may be reduced).<br />
(a) For how long N does he have to pay <strong>in</strong>stallments and how big is the last amount<br />
of amortisation?
10 <strong>Exercises</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong><br />
(b) Which amount αt has to be paid at time t if the loan (with <strong>in</strong>terest earned) is to<br />
be fully paid back at time t (t = 1, 2, . . . , N)?<br />
(Aktuarembetseksamen, Oslo 1960)
Aggregate Mortality 11<br />
2. Aggregate Mortality<br />
Exercise 2.1 Let T be a stochastic variable with distribution function F . Assume F<br />
is concentrated on the <strong>in</strong>terval [a, b] and that F is cont<strong>in</strong>uous with cont<strong>in</strong>uous density<br />
f. Assume F (t) < 1 for t ∈ [a, b). Def<strong>in</strong>e<br />
We say that µ is the <strong>in</strong>tensity of F .<br />
(a) Show that b<br />
a µ(t)dt = ∞.<br />
µ(t) = f(t)<br />
, t ∈ [a, b).<br />
1 − F (t)<br />
(b) Can we conclude that µ(t) → ∞ for t → b − ?<br />
Let T be the life length of a newly born. Let a = 0 and b = ω where ω is the maximum<br />
life length.<br />
(c) Show that µ is the force of mortality.<br />
(HRH(1))<br />
Exercise 2.2 Use the decrement tables of G82M to f<strong>in</strong>d the follow<strong>in</strong>g probabilities:<br />
(a) The probability that a 1 year old person dies after his 50th year, but before his<br />
60th year.<br />
(b) The probability that a 30 year old dies with<strong>in</strong> the next 37 years.<br />
(c) The probability that two persons now 26 and 31 years old, and whose rema<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g<br />
life times are assumed to be stochastically <strong>in</strong>dependent, both are alive <strong>in</strong> 12 years.<br />
(SP(28))<br />
Exercise 2.3 Expla<strong>in</strong> why each of the follow<strong>in</strong>g functions cannot serve <strong>in</strong> the role<br />
<strong>in</strong>dicated by the symbol:<br />
F (x) = 1 − 22x<br />
12<br />
µx = (1 + x) −3 , x ≥ 0<br />
+ 11x2<br />
8<br />
7x3<br />
− , 0 ≤ x ≤ 3<br />
24
12 <strong>Exercises</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong><br />
f(x) = x n−1 e −x/2 , x ≥ 0, n ≥ 1.<br />
(AM(3.4) p. 77, 1986)<br />
Exercise 2.4 Consider a population, where the distribution functions for a man’s<br />
and a woman’s total life lengths are xq M 0 and xq K 0 respectively. Assume that these<br />
probabilities are cont<strong>in</strong>uous so that the forces of mortality µ M x and µ K x are def<strong>in</strong>ed.<br />
Let s0 denote the probability that a newly born is a female. Assume moreover that s0<br />
and the forces of mortality are not be<strong>in</strong>g altered dur<strong>in</strong>g the period of time considered<br />
<strong>in</strong> this exercise.<br />
(a) F<strong>in</strong>d the distribution function xq0 for the total life time for a person of unknown<br />
sex and f<strong>in</strong>d tqx. F<strong>in</strong>d the force of mortality µx for a person of unknown sex.<br />
(b) What is the probability sx that a person aged x is a woman?<br />
Us<strong>in</strong>g decrement series ℓM x and ℓKx for men and women respectively, work out a decrement<br />
serie ℓx for the total population:<br />
(c) How should one appropriately choose ℓ M 0 and ℓ K 0 ?<br />
(d) Express ax <strong>in</strong> terms of a M x and aK x .<br />
(SP(32))<br />
Exercise 2.5 Consider a random survivorship group consist<strong>in</strong>g of two subgroups:<br />
(1) The survivors of 1.600 births.<br />
(2) The survivors of 540 persons jo<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g 10 years later at age 10.<br />
An excerpt from the appropriate mortality table for both subgroups follows:<br />
x ℓx<br />
0 40<br />
10 39<br />
70 26<br />
If γ1 and γ2 are the numbers of survivors under the age of 70 out of subgroups (1)<br />
and (2) respectively, estimate a number c such that P (γ1 + γ2 > c) = 0.05. Assume<br />
the lives are <strong>in</strong>dependent.
Aggregate Mortality 13<br />
(AM(3.13) p. 78, 1986)<br />
Exercise 2.6 When consider<strong>in</strong>g aggregate mortality the probability that an x-year<br />
old person is go<strong>in</strong>g to die between x + s and x + s + t, is denoted by the symbol s|tqx.<br />
(a) Express this probability by the distribution function of the person’s rema<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g life<br />
time.<br />
(b) Is there a connection between s|tqx and tqx?<br />
(c) Show that<br />
and <strong>in</strong>terpret this expression.<br />
When t = 1 we write s|qx = s|1qx.<br />
s|tqx =<br />
s+t<br />
(d) Show that for <strong>in</strong>teger x and n we have<br />
s<br />
n|qx = dx+n<br />
upxµx+udu,<br />
(e) Show that s|tqx can be expressed similarly (use the function ℓ <strong>in</strong>stead of d).<br />
(f) Prove the follow<strong>in</strong>g identities:<br />
Exercise 2.7 Let e ◦ x:n|<br />
ℓx<br />
n|mqx = npx − n+mpx<br />
n|qx = npx · qx+n<br />
n+mpx = npx · mpx+n.<br />
.<br />
(SP(24))<br />
denote the expected future lifetime of (x) between the ages<br />
of x and x + n. Show that<br />
e ◦<br />
x:n|<br />
This is called the partial life expectancy.<br />
=<br />
=<br />
n<br />
ttpxµx+tdt + nnpx<br />
0<br />
n<br />
0<br />
tpxdt.
14 <strong>Exercises</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong><br />
Exercise 2.8 The force of mortality µx is assumed to be<br />
µx = βc x .<br />
(AM(3.14) p. 78, 1986)<br />
Three persons are x, y and z years old respectively. What is the probability of dy<strong>in</strong>g<br />
<strong>in</strong> the order x, y, z?<br />
(Tentamen i försikr<strong>in</strong>gsmatematik, Stockholms Högskola 1954)<br />
Exercise 2.9 If F (x) = 1 − x/100, 0 ≤ x ≤ 100, f<strong>in</strong>d µx, F (x), f(x) and P (10 <<br />
X < 40).<br />
Exercise 2.10 If µx = 0.0001 for 20 ≤ x ≤ 25, evaluate 2|2q20.<br />
(AM(3.5) p. 77, 1986)<br />
(AM(3.7) p. 77, 1986)<br />
Exercise 2.11 Assume that the force of mortality µx is Gompertz-Makeham, i. e.<br />
µx = α+βc x . For at certa<strong>in</strong> cause of death, the force of mortality is given by α1+β1c x .<br />
Show that the probability of dy<strong>in</strong>g from the above disease for an x-year old is<br />
β1<br />
β + α1β − αβ1<br />
β<br />
ex.<br />
(Tentamen i försikr<strong>in</strong>gsmatematik, Stockholms Högskola 1954)<br />
Exercise 2.12 Show that constants a and b can be determ<strong>in</strong>ed so that<br />
µx = a log(1 − qx) + b log(1 − qx+1).<br />
when µx can be put as a l<strong>in</strong>ear function for x < t < x + 2.<br />
(Tentamen i försikr<strong>in</strong>gsmatematik, Stockholms Högskola 1954)<br />
Exercise 2.13 Assum<strong>in</strong>g the force of mortality to be Gompertz-Makeham, i. e.<br />
µx = α + βc x , show that for each age x we have<br />
log c<br />
−<br />
c − 1 log(1 − qx) < µx < − log(1 − qx).
Aggregate Mortality 15<br />
(Tentamen i försikr<strong>in</strong>gsmatematik, Stockholms Högskola, 1954)<br />
Exercise 2.14 Given that ℓx+t is strictly decreas<strong>in</strong>g for t ∈ [0, 1] show that<br />
(a) if ℓx+t is concave down, then qx > µx,<br />
(b) if ℓx+t is concave up, then qx < µx.<br />
Exercise 2.15 Prove the follow<strong>in</strong>g expressions:<br />
d<br />
dx ℓxµx < 0, when d<br />
dx µx < µ 2<br />
x<br />
d<br />
dx ℓxµx = 0, when d<br />
dx µx = µ 2<br />
x<br />
d<br />
dx ℓxµx > 0, when d<br />
dx µx > µ 2<br />
x.<br />
Exercise 2.16 Show the follow<strong>in</strong>g identities:<br />
∂tpx<br />
∂t = −µx+t · tpx<br />
∂tpx<br />
∂x = (µx − µx+t) · tpx<br />
1 =<br />
ℓx =<br />
ω−x<br />
tpxµx+tdt<br />
0<br />
ω−x<br />
0<br />
ℓx+tµx+tdt.<br />
(AM, 1986)<br />
(AM(3.12) p. 77, 1986)<br />
(SP(26))<br />
Exercise 2.17 If the force of mortality µx+t, 0 ≤ t ≤ 1, changes to µx+t − c where c<br />
is a positive constant, f<strong>in</strong>d the value of c for which the probability of (x) dy<strong>in</strong>g with<strong>in</strong><br />
a year will be halved. Express the answer <strong>in</strong> terms of qx.<br />
(AM(3.34) p. 80, 1986)<br />
Exercise 2.18 From a standard mortality table, a second table is prepared by<br />
doubl<strong>in</strong>g the force of mortality of the standard table. Is the rate of mortality, qx, at
16 <strong>Exercises</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong><br />
any given age under the new table, more than double, exactly double or less than<br />
double the mortality rate, qx, of the standard table?<br />
(AM(3.35) p. 80, 1986)<br />
Exercise 2.19 If µx = Bc x , show that the function ℓxµx has a maximum at age x0,<br />
where µx0 = log c. (H<strong>in</strong>t: Exercise 2.15).<br />
Exercise 2.20 Assume<br />
for x > 0.<br />
(a) F<strong>in</strong>d the survival function F (x).<br />
µx = Acx<br />
1 + Bc x<br />
(AM(3.36) p. 80, 1986)<br />
(b) Verify that the mode of the distribution of X, the age of death, is given by<br />
x0 =<br />
log(log c) − log A<br />
.<br />
log c<br />
(AM(3.37) p. 80, 1986)<br />
Exercise 2.21. (Interpolation <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> Annuity Tariffs) Consider a table with the<br />
present value a x:u−x| for an <strong>in</strong>teger expiration age u with age at issue x = 0, 1, . . . , u<br />
and futhermore a table of the one year survival probabilities px for the same ages. Let<br />
t be a real number, 0 ≤ t < 1. We are try<strong>in</strong>g to f<strong>in</strong>d a way to determ<strong>in</strong>e a x+t:u−x−t|<br />
from the data of the table; this method will, of course, depend on how the mortality<br />
varies with the age.<br />
Assume that the force of mortality is constant on one year age <strong>in</strong>tervals, i. e. µx+t = µx<br />
for all t with 0 ≤ t < 1.<br />
(a) F<strong>in</strong>d t−spx+s <strong>in</strong> terms of px for 0 ≤ s < t ≤ 1.<br />
(b) F<strong>in</strong>d an expression for a x+t:1−t|.<br />
(c) Show that for every t there exists a λ so that<br />
a x+t:u−x−t| = λa x:u−x| + (1 − λ)a x+1:u−x−1|,<br />
and express λ <strong>in</strong> terms of the discount rate v, t and px.<br />
(d) How should one <strong>in</strong>terpolate <strong>in</strong> a correspond<strong>in</strong>g table for A x:u−x|.
Aggregate Mortality 17<br />
(FM1 exam, summer 1983)<br />
Exercise 2.22 For <strong>in</strong>surances where the policies are issued on aggravated circumstances,<br />
one operates with excess mortality. Let µx be the force of mortality correspond<strong>in</strong>g<br />
to the normal mortality. A person is said to have an excess mortality if his<br />
force of mortality is given by<br />
µ ′<br />
x = (1 + k)µx.<br />
(a) Show that for all positive k, x and t we have<br />
tq ′<br />
x < (1 + k)tqx.<br />
(b) Show that if there exists a constant ∆ so that µ ′ x = µx+∆ is valid for all x then<br />
a ′<br />
x = ax+∆<br />
for all x; <strong>in</strong> this case the <strong>in</strong>surance is issued with an <strong>in</strong>crease of age ∆.<br />
(c) Show that the condition <strong>in</strong> (b) is fulfilled if the mortality satisfies Gompertz’s law,<br />
i. e. there exist constants β and γ so that µx = β exp(γx) for all x.<br />
(d) Show, oppositely, that if µx is strictly <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> x and if there for any k ≥ 0<br />
exists a constant ∆k so that<br />
= (1 + k)µx,<br />
µx+∆k<br />
then the mortality satisfies Gompertz’s law.<br />
(SP(43))
18 <strong>Exercises</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong><br />
Exercise 3.1 Prove the identities:<br />
3. <strong>Insurance</strong> of a S<strong>in</strong>gle <strong>Life</strong><br />
FM0 S92, 3<br />
äx = 1 + vpxäx+1<br />
1 − nEx = äx:n| − ax:n|<br />
dax:n|<br />
dx<br />
= (µx + δ)ax:n| + nEx − 1.<br />
(SP(29))<br />
Exercise 3.2 Let µx be a weakly <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g function of x and assume that µx → ∞<br />
as x → ∞.<br />
(a) Show that ax → 0 as x → ∞.<br />
(b) Exam<strong>in</strong>e if Ax has a f<strong>in</strong>ite limit as x tends to <strong>in</strong>f<strong>in</strong>ity.<br />
(SP(31))<br />
Exercise 3.3 Consider an <strong>in</strong>surance contract issued to an x-year old. At death<br />
with<strong>in</strong> the first n years, the level cont<strong>in</strong>uous premium is paid back with <strong>in</strong>terest and<br />
compound <strong>in</strong>terest earned. Rewrite the <strong>in</strong>tegral expression for the present value after<br />
t years (t < h) of the future return of premium per unit of the premium <strong>in</strong> order to<br />
show that this value is<br />
(st| + ax+t:n−t|) − Dx+h<br />
sh| ,<br />
Dx+t<br />
where s t| is def<strong>in</strong>ed by JH. Interpret the expression.<br />
Exercise 3.4 Show that<br />
(Eksamen i Forsikr<strong>in</strong>gsvidenskab og Statistik, KU, w<strong>in</strong>ter 1943-44)<br />
nEx = 1 − iax:n| − (1 + i)A 1<br />
x:n| ,<br />
and <strong>in</strong>terpret this formula (i is the <strong>in</strong>terest rate).<br />
(Eksamen i Forsikr<strong>in</strong>gsvidenskab og Statistik (rev.), w<strong>in</strong>ter 1946-47)
<strong>Insurance</strong> of a S<strong>in</strong>gle <strong>Life</strong> 19<br />
Exercise 3.5 Assume there exist positive constants k and α, so that<br />
for all x ∈ [0, ω].<br />
(a) F<strong>in</strong>d an expression for µx.<br />
(b) F<strong>in</strong>d an expression for e ◦ x<br />
Now assume that α = 1.<br />
ℓx = k(1 − x<br />
ω )α<br />
(see exercise 2.7).<br />
(c) Show that n|qx is <strong>in</strong>dependent of n.<br />
(d) Show that for n = ω − x we have<br />
ax =<br />
n − an|<br />
.<br />
nδ<br />
(SP(30))<br />
Exercise 3.6 Ax:n| denotes the expected present value of a life <strong>in</strong>surance contract,<br />
where the amount of 1 is to be paid out by the end of the year <strong>in</strong> which the <strong>in</strong>sured<br />
dies, not later than n years after the time of issue, or if he survives until the age of<br />
x + n. x is the age at entry.<br />
(a) Give an expression for Ax:n| and show that<br />
where d is the discount rate.<br />
A 1 x:n|<br />
Ax:n| = 1 − däx:n|,<br />
denotes the expected present value of a life <strong>in</strong>surance where the amount of 1<br />
is paid out by the end of the year, dur<strong>in</strong>g which he dies if he dies before the age of<br />
x + n. x is the age at entry.<br />
(b) Give an expression for A 1 x:n|<br />
and show that<br />
A 1<br />
x:n| = 1 − nEx − däx:n|.<br />
(c) Try to <strong>in</strong>terpret the formulas <strong>in</strong> (a) and (b).<br />
(SP(33))<br />
Exercise 3.7 Assume that active persons have force of mortality µ a x as a function<br />
of age and force of disability νx as a function of age. Assume moreover that disabled
20 <strong>Exercises</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong><br />
persons have force of mortality µ i x. There is no recovery. The force of <strong>in</strong>terest is<br />
denoted by δ.<br />
The four quantities def<strong>in</strong>ed below are the s<strong>in</strong>gle net premiums an <strong>in</strong>sured with age<br />
at entry x has to pay for a level cont<strong>in</strong>uous annuity with sum 1 p. a. The <strong>in</strong>surance<br />
cancels n years after issue.<br />
a i x:n |<br />
a a x:n |<br />
a aa<br />
x:n |<br />
a ai<br />
x:n |<br />
The s<strong>in</strong>gle net premium for an <strong>in</strong>sured who is disabled at the time of issue. The<br />
annuity is payable from issue until the time of death of the <strong>in</strong>sured.<br />
S<strong>in</strong>gle net premium for active persons. The annuity is payable from the time of<br />
issue until death of the <strong>in</strong>sured.<br />
As above except that the premium is due for a contract that cancels by death<br />
or by disability of the <strong>in</strong>sured.<br />
S<strong>in</strong>gle net premium for an active. The annuity is payable if the <strong>in</strong>sured is be<strong>in</strong>g<br />
disabled with<strong>in</strong> n years from time of issue. Expires if he dies.<br />
(a) Express aai x:n| <strong>in</strong> terms of µax , νx, µ i x and δ.<br />
(b) Assume that µ a x = µi x<br />
for all x. Express aai<br />
x:n|<br />
<strong>in</strong> terms of aaa<br />
x:n| and ai x:n| .<br />
(c) Assume that µ a x = µ i x + ε and νx = ν where ε and ν are <strong>in</strong>dependent of x and<br />
ε = ν. Express a ai<br />
x:n|<br />
by aaa<br />
x:n| and ai x:n|<br />
(and ε and ν).<br />
(Aktuarembetseksamen i Oslo (rev.), fall 1953)<br />
Exercise 3.8 Assume the force of mortality is a strictly <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g function of the<br />
age, when this is greater than or equal to a certa<strong>in</strong> x0.<br />
Show that for x ≥ x0 and 0 < n ≤ ∞ the follow<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>equalities hold:<br />
ax:n| < 1 − vn npx<br />
µx + δ ,<br />
∂ax:n|<br />
∂x<br />
< 0,<br />
ax < 1<br />
δ .<br />
(SP(37))
<strong>Insurance</strong> of a S<strong>in</strong>gle <strong>Life</strong> 21<br />
Exercise 3.9 The quantity<br />
e ◦<br />
x:n| =<br />
n<br />
tpxdt<br />
0<br />
is the expected period of <strong>in</strong>surance for a term <strong>in</strong>surance or an n-year temporary<br />
annuity, age of entry x and age of expiration x + n.<br />
Def<strong>in</strong>e<br />
ex:n| =<br />
ëx:n| =<br />
n<br />
tpx<br />
t=1<br />
n−1 <br />
tpx.<br />
t=0<br />
Give a similar <strong>in</strong>terpretation of these identities. Def<strong>in</strong>e<br />
a t| =<br />
ä t| =<br />
1 − vt<br />
i<br />
1 − vt<br />
d<br />
and show that for <strong>in</strong>teger values of t the follow<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>equalities are valid:<br />
Exercise 3.10 Show that<br />
ax:n| < ae x:n||<br />
äx:n| < ä ëx:n|| .<br />
ax =<br />
∞<br />
0<br />
tpxAx+tdt.<br />
(SP(39))<br />
(SP(41))<br />
Exercise 3.11 Assume that µx is a weakly <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g function of x and consider<br />
for given x two <strong>in</strong>surance contracts with <strong>in</strong>itial age x: First consider a whole-life life<br />
<strong>in</strong>surance with sum <strong>in</strong>sured 1 and secondly a whole-life cont<strong>in</strong>uous annuity with level<br />
payment <strong>in</strong>tensity determ<strong>in</strong>ed so that the expected present value of the two <strong>in</strong>surance<br />
contracts are equal. The one with the biggest variance of the present value is naturally<br />
the one with the biggest risk for the company.<br />
Show that there exists an x0 ≥ 0 so the annuity is more risky than the life <strong>in</strong>surance<br />
iff x > x0.
22 <strong>Exercises</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong><br />
(SP(42))<br />
Exercise 3.12. (Multiplicative Hazard Model) The mortality <strong>in</strong> a population varies<br />
from person to person; some has greater or lesser mortality than the average. This<br />
can be modelled as follows:<br />
There exists a underly<strong>in</strong>g force of mortality µx and for each person a constant θ<br />
<strong>in</strong>dependent of age exists so that the force of mortality for a person aged x is θµx.<br />
The value of θ for a randomly chosen person is assumed to be a realisation of a<br />
stochastic variable Θ, and we assume moreover that EΘ = 1.<br />
Show that <strong>in</strong> this model the expected present value of a cont<strong>in</strong>uous temporary n-year<br />
annuity with payment <strong>in</strong>tensity 1 is greater than or equal to<br />
ax:n| =<br />
n<br />
0<br />
e −δt tpxdt,<br />
and exam<strong>in</strong>e under which conditions the two present values are equal.<br />
(SP(44))<br />
Exercise 3.13 Consider an n-year endowment <strong>in</strong>surance, sum <strong>in</strong>sured S, age at<br />
entry x and premium paid cont<strong>in</strong>uously dur<strong>in</strong>g the entire period with level <strong>in</strong>tensity<br />
p. Expenses are disregarded.<br />
(a) What is the surplus of this contract for the company <strong>in</strong> terms of the rema<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g<br />
life time of the <strong>in</strong>sured?<br />
(b) F<strong>in</strong>d the mean and variance of the surplus.<br />
(c) Expla<strong>in</strong> how p should be determ<strong>in</strong>ed so that the probalility of gett<strong>in</strong>g a negative<br />
surplus is lesser than a certa<strong>in</strong> ε. (H<strong>in</strong>t: Tchebychev’s <strong>in</strong>equality.)<br />
(d) Show (by apply<strong>in</strong>g the central limit theorem) how it is possible to obta<strong>in</strong> a probability<br />
of a negative surplus for the entire portfolio lesser than ε by us<strong>in</strong>g a smaller p<br />
than the one found <strong>in</strong> (c).<br />
(SP(50))<br />
We have so far worked with cont<strong>in</strong>uous <strong>in</strong>surance benefits - annuities that are due<br />
cont<strong>in</strong>uously and life <strong>in</strong>surances that are due upon death. The pure endowment seems<br />
to be of another orig<strong>in</strong>, because the time of possible s<strong>in</strong>gle payment is determ<strong>in</strong>ed <strong>in</strong><br />
advance. In the next exercise we will consider more general k<strong>in</strong>ds of non-cont<strong>in</strong>uous<br />
or discrete benefits. For at start consider an x-year old whose rema<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g life time T
<strong>Insurance</strong> of a S<strong>in</strong>gle <strong>Life</strong> 23<br />
is determ<strong>in</strong>ed by the survival function<br />
F (t | x) = e −<br />
∞<br />
0 µx+τ dτ ,<br />
where µx+t is the force of mortality at the age of x + t, t > 0. As usual let v denote<br />
the annual discount rate.<br />
The results of the follow<strong>in</strong>g exercise will show that cont<strong>in</strong>uous benefits can be concidered<br />
as limits for discrete benefits. We will also see that both cont<strong>in</strong>uous and discrete<br />
annuities and life <strong>in</strong>surances are closely related to pure endowment benefits.<br />
Exercise 3.14 The present value of a t-year pure endowment with sum 1 is<br />
C e<br />
t = v t 1{T >t}.<br />
(a) F<strong>in</strong>d the expectation, tEx, of C e n and f<strong>in</strong>d Cov(C e s , Ce t ) for s = t.<br />
A brute-forth generalisation of the pure endowment is produced by summ<strong>in</strong>g more<br />
benefits like this. A simple variant is the n-year temporary deferred annuity payable<br />
annually with fixed amounts as long as the <strong>in</strong>sured is alive. This is the sum of n pure<br />
endowments with deferment times 1, . . . , n. The present value at time t = 0 is<br />
C a(1)<br />
n<br />
=<br />
If the annuity is payable h times a year with fixed amounts 1 , the present value will<br />
h<br />
be<br />
C a(h)<br />
n<br />
=<br />
n<br />
t=1<br />
hn<br />
t=1<br />
C e<br />
t .<br />
C e<br />
t/h.<br />
(b) F<strong>in</strong>d the expectation, a (h)<br />
a(h)<br />
x:n| , and the variance of the present value Cn .<br />
An n-year temporary life <strong>in</strong>surance with sum <strong>in</strong>sured 1, payable at the end of the<br />
year of death, has present value<br />
C ti(1)<br />
n<br />
=<br />
n<br />
t=1<br />
v t 1{t−1
24 <strong>Exercises</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong><br />
(c) Express the present value C ti(h)<br />
n<br />
Ca(h) n<br />
<strong>in</strong> terms of present values of annuities given by<br />
. Compare with similar expressions for cont<strong>in</strong>uous benefits.<br />
(d) F<strong>in</strong>d the expectation, A (h)<br />
ti(h)<br />
x:n| , and the variance of the present value Cn .<br />
(e) Use the results from (b) and (d) to prove the well known formulas<br />
ax:n| =<br />
A 1<br />
x:n|<br />
=<br />
n<br />
0<br />
n<br />
0<br />
v t F (t | x)dt =<br />
v t F (t | x)µx+tdt<br />
= 1 − δax:n| − nEx,<br />
n<br />
0<br />
tExdt<br />
for the expectations of C a ti<br />
n and Cn and also to f<strong>in</strong>d their variances. (H<strong>in</strong>t: By monotone<br />
convergence we have C α(2m )<br />
n ↗ Cα n as m → ∞, α ∈ {a, ti}. Then use the<br />
monotone convergence for the expectation).<br />
(f) Use the technique <strong>in</strong> (e) to f<strong>in</strong>d formulas for the expectations and variances of<br />
cont<strong>in</strong>uous benefits <strong>in</strong> the usual Markov model. Consider an annuity, payable with<br />
level <strong>in</strong>tensity of 1 by stay<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> state j, and an <strong>in</strong>surance where a sum of 1 is paid<br />
upon every transition j → k.<br />
(RN “Opgave E7” 29.01.90)<br />
Exercise 3.15 The functions that occur <strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong>surance mathematics often depend on<br />
several variables, e. g. m|ax:n|, and are often hard to tabulate. In order to solve this<br />
problem, we <strong>in</strong>troduce the so-called commutation functions. In connection with life<br />
<strong>in</strong>surances of one life we consider the follow<strong>in</strong>g:<br />
Cx = vxdx Cx = x+1<br />
x vξℓξµξdξ Dx = vxℓx Dx = x+1<br />
x vξℓξdξ Mx = ω ξ=x vξdξ M x = ω<br />
x vξℓξµξdξ Nx = ω ξ=x vξℓξ N x = ω<br />
x vξℓξdξ Rx = ω ξ=x (ξ − x)vξdξ Rx = ω<br />
x (ξ − x)vξℓξµξdξ Sx = ω ξ=x (ξ − x)vξℓξ Sx = ω<br />
x (ξ − x)vξℓξdξ. (a) Show that<br />
m|ax:n| = N x+m − N x+m+n<br />
.<br />
(b) F<strong>in</strong>d correspond<strong>in</strong>g expressions for ax:n|, A 1<br />
x:n| , Ax, Ax:n|, nEx, ax:n| and äx:n|.<br />
(c) What can we possibly use Rx for?<br />
Dx
<strong>Insurance</strong> of a S<strong>in</strong>gle <strong>Life</strong> 25<br />
(SP(35))
26 <strong>Exercises</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong><br />
4. The Net Premium Reserve and Thiele’s Differential Equation<br />
FM0 S91, 1 FM0 S92, 2 FM0 S93, 2 FM0 S94, 2 FM0 S95, 1<br />
Exercise 4.1 Consider an n-year pure endowment, sum <strong>in</strong>sured S, premium payable<br />
cont<strong>in</strong>uously dur<strong>in</strong>g the <strong>in</strong>surance period with level <strong>in</strong>tensity π. Upon death two<br />
thirds of the premium reserve is be<strong>in</strong>g paid out.<br />
(a) Put up Thiele’s differential equation for Vt. What are the boundary conditions?<br />
(b) F<strong>in</strong>d an expression for the premium reserve at time t, t ∈ [0, n)<br />
(c) Determ<strong>in</strong>e the premium <strong>in</strong>tensity π by adopt<strong>in</strong>g the equivalence pr<strong>in</strong>ciple.<br />
(SH and MSC, 1995)<br />
Exercise 4.2 We have the choice of two different premium payment schemes.<br />
• For an <strong>in</strong>surance of a s<strong>in</strong>gle life a level cont<strong>in</strong>uous premium is due with force<br />
p as long as the <strong>in</strong>sured is alive at the most for n years from the issue of the<br />
contract.<br />
• Every year an annual premium of the size<br />
p (1) = p · a 1|<br />
is paid <strong>in</strong> advance. If the <strong>in</strong>sured dies dur<strong>in</strong>g the <strong>in</strong>surance period the return of<br />
premium is<br />
R = p (1) · a θ|<br />
a 1|<br />
= p · a θ| ,<br />
where θ denotes the rema<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g part of the year at time of death.<br />
(a) Show that these two premium payment schemes are equivalent <strong>in</strong> the manner<br />
that regardless of when the <strong>in</strong>sured is go<strong>in</strong>g to die, the present values of the premium<br />
payments under the two schemes are equal.<br />
(b) F<strong>in</strong>d the expected present value of the return of premium at the time of issue.<br />
Let the prospective reserves at time t from the time of issue of the two premium<br />
schemes be denoted by V t and Vt.
The Net Premium Reserve and Thiele’s Differential Equation 27<br />
(c) Show that for t ≤ n<br />
where [t] is the <strong>in</strong>teger part of t.<br />
Vt = V t + p · a [t]−t|<br />
(SP(53))<br />
Exercise 4.3 Consider a l<strong>in</strong>early <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g n-year term <strong>in</strong>surance. If the <strong>in</strong>sured<br />
dies at time t after the time of issue where t < n, the amount tS is paid out. If the<br />
<strong>in</strong>sured is alive at time n, the amount nS is paid out at this time. The age of the<br />
<strong>in</strong>sured at entry is x. The net premium determ<strong>in</strong>ed by the equivalence pr<strong>in</strong>ciple, is<br />
due cont<strong>in</strong>uously with level <strong>in</strong>tensity p.<br />
(a) F<strong>in</strong>d an expression for p.<br />
(b) F<strong>in</strong>d a prospective and a retrospective expression for the reserve Vt at any time<br />
t, 0 < t < n.<br />
(c) Show that the two expressions found <strong>in</strong> (b) are equal for all t, 0 ≤ t < n.<br />
(d) Derive Thieles differential equation.<br />
(e) F<strong>in</strong>d the sav<strong>in</strong>gs premium and the risk premium.<br />
(SP(54))<br />
Exercise 4.4 An n-year <strong>in</strong>surance contract has been issued to a person (x). The<br />
premium is composed of a s<strong>in</strong>gle premium π0 at the beg<strong>in</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g of the contract and<br />
by a cont<strong>in</strong>uous <strong>in</strong>tensity (πt)t∈(0,n) as long as (x) is alive, at the most for n years.<br />
The benefits are a pure endowment, sum <strong>in</strong>sured Sn at time n, a term <strong>in</strong>surance, sum<br />
<strong>in</strong>sured St at time t ∈ (0, n), and a cont<strong>in</strong>uous flow with <strong>in</strong>tensity (st)t∈(0,n) as long<br />
as (x) is alive dur<strong>in</strong>g the <strong>in</strong>surance period.<br />
(a) Put up Thiele’s differential equation.<br />
(b) F<strong>in</strong>d a boundary condition without assum<strong>in</strong>g the equivalence pr<strong>in</strong>ciple.<br />
(c) F<strong>in</strong>d a prospective expression for the premium reserve by solv<strong>in</strong>g the differential<br />
equation.<br />
(d) Adopt the equivalence pr<strong>in</strong>ciple and f<strong>in</strong>d an alternative boundary condition.<br />
(e) F<strong>in</strong>d, by apply<strong>in</strong>g the new boundary condition a retrospective expression for the<br />
premium reserve.
28 <strong>Exercises</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong><br />
Now assume that the benefits moreover consist of a pure endowment, sum <strong>in</strong>sured S<br />
at time m (0 < m < n).<br />
(f) Has this altered Thiele’s differential equation?<br />
(g) Which extra boundary condition are now to be added <strong>in</strong> order to solve the differential<br />
equation?<br />
Assume that π0 = 0, πt = π for t ∈ (0, m) and that π is determ<strong>in</strong>ed by the equivalence<br />
pr<strong>in</strong>ciple.<br />
(h) F<strong>in</strong>d the net premium.<br />
(i) F<strong>in</strong>d the premium reserve at any time.<br />
(SH “Opgave til 14/10-94” (rev.))<br />
Exercise 4.5. (Prospective Widow Pension <strong>in</strong> Discrete Time) Consider a policy<br />
with widow pension, <strong>in</strong>surance period n years, issued to a man aged x and his wife<br />
aged y. Dur<strong>in</strong>g the <strong>in</strong>surance period the premium Π falls due annually <strong>in</strong> advance<br />
as long as both are alive. If the man dies, the benefit is a widow pension of sum 1<br />
paid out on every follow<strong>in</strong>g anniversary of the policy dur<strong>in</strong>g the <strong>in</strong>surance period if<br />
the widow is still alive. All expenses are disregarded.<br />
(a) Put up an expression for the premium reserve for this policy at its tth anniversary.<br />
(b) Show how the premium reserve at any time t can be expressed <strong>in</strong> terms of the<br />
reserve at time t + 1 for t = 0, 1, . . . , n − 1 so that the premium reserves can be<br />
calculated recursively.<br />
(c) Def<strong>in</strong>e the sav<strong>in</strong>gs premium and the risk premium and f<strong>in</strong>d an <strong>in</strong>terpretable expression<br />
for the latter.<br />
(FM1 exam, summer 1977)<br />
Exercise 4.6 Consider an n-year term <strong>in</strong>surance, sum <strong>in</strong>sured S, age at entry x.<br />
Cont<strong>in</strong>uous premium dur<strong>in</strong>g the entire period with level <strong>in</strong>tensity p determ<strong>in</strong>ed by<br />
the equivalence pr<strong>in</strong>ciple.<br />
(a) F<strong>in</strong>d Thieles differential equation for the premium reserve Vt.<br />
(b) Which <strong>in</strong>itial conditions would be natural to use for t = 0 and t = n − respectively?<br />
(c) Solve the differential equation with each of the <strong>in</strong>itial conditions and compare the<br />
solutions.
The Net Premium Reserve and Thiele’s Differential Equation 29<br />
(SP(55))<br />
Exercise 4.7 If the <strong>in</strong>sured dies before time n (from the time of issue) the benefit is<br />
a cont<strong>in</strong>uous annuity with force 1, duration m from the time of death. If he is alive<br />
at time n, the benefit is a similar annuity from this time and if he is still alive at time<br />
n + m he receives a whole-life annuity with <strong>in</strong>tensity 1. There is a s<strong>in</strong>gle net premium<br />
at the time of issue and the equivalence pr<strong>in</strong>ciple is adopted.<br />
(a) F<strong>in</strong>d the s<strong>in</strong>gle net premium.<br />
(b) F<strong>in</strong>d the prospective premium reserve at any time.<br />
(c) Derive Thieles differential equation.<br />
Let Rc denote the risk sum at time t.<br />
(d) Prove that<br />
⎧<br />
⎪⎨ (1 − v<br />
Rt =<br />
⎪⎩<br />
m )ax+t:n−t| − n+m−t|ax+t (t < n)<br />
−n+m−t|ax+t<br />
(n ≤ t < n + m)<br />
(n + m ≤ t).<br />
In particular we have<br />
−ax+t<br />
R0 = (1 − v m )ax:n| − n+m|ax,<br />
and s<strong>in</strong>ce<br />
lim<br />
n→∞ R0 = (1 − v m ax) > 0,<br />
we have R0 > 0 if only n is big enough. Assume that R0 > 0. Because Rt is a strictly<br />
<strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g cont<strong>in</strong>uous function on [0, n] and Rn < 0, there exists a unique τ ∈ (0, n)<br />
so that Rτ = 0.<br />
(e) Show that this τ is determ<strong>in</strong>ed by<br />
N x+τ = N x+n + N x+n+m<br />
.<br />
1 − vm (SP(56))<br />
Exercise 4.8 Consider a pension <strong>in</strong>surance contract, where the benefit is an n-year<br />
annuity of 1 deferred m years (expected present value m|nax). Premium is paid with<br />
level <strong>in</strong>tensity c dur<strong>in</strong>g the deferment period (expected present value cax:m|).<br />
(a) What is the equivalence premium c and the development of the reserve when<br />
x = 30, m = 30, n = 20 and the technical basis is G82M, i. e. i = 0.045 and µx =<br />
0.0005 + 10 −4.12+0.038x .
30 <strong>Exercises</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong><br />
(b) Do similar calculations as <strong>in</strong> (a) for an extended contract where k times the<br />
premium reserve is be<strong>in</strong>g paid out by possible death dur<strong>in</strong>g the deferment period,<br />
k = 0.5, k = 1.<br />
(RN “Opgave til FM0” 15.10.93)<br />
Exercise 4.9 Consider a s<strong>in</strong>gle-life status (x) with force of mortality µx. Def<strong>in</strong>e the<br />
premium reserve by Vt = E(U[t,∞) | T > t) as usual.<br />
(a) Show that the premium reserve always is right cont<strong>in</strong>uous.<br />
(b) Discuss under which conditions it is left cont<strong>in</strong>uous.<br />
Consider the follow<strong>in</strong>g benefits at time t<br />
• stdt1{T >t}, annuities<br />
• St1{T ∈dt}, life <strong>in</strong>surances<br />
• Bt1{T >t}, pure endowment,<br />
and show that if the premium is be<strong>in</strong>g paid with level <strong>in</strong>tensity π and there isno lump<br />
sum at time t then Vt is left cont<strong>in</strong>uous.<br />
(c) If there is a lump sum at time t, what does Vt − Vt− look like?<br />
NB: Assume that µx+t, st, St are cont<strong>in</strong>uous, and assume that there only exist a f<strong>in</strong>ite<br />
number of t’s where Bt = 0.<br />
(SH “Opgave til 13/10-95”)<br />
Exercise 4.10 Consider an <strong>in</strong>surance of a s<strong>in</strong>gle life, age at entry x. At time t<br />
(t = 0, 1, 2, . . .) the premium Pt is be<strong>in</strong>g paid if the <strong>in</strong>sured is still alive, and if he dies<br />
dur<strong>in</strong>g [t − 1, t) then St is the benefit. The equivalence pr<strong>in</strong>ciple is adopted for the<br />
<strong>in</strong>surance and all expenses are disregarded. Let the premium reserve at time t be Vt<br />
and let the stochastic variable Gt be given by<br />
⎧<br />
⎪⎨ 0 (the <strong>in</strong>sured is dead at time t<br />
Gt =<br />
⎪⎩<br />
− )<br />
Vt + Pt − vSt+1 (the <strong>in</strong>sured dies dur<strong>in</strong>g the <strong>in</strong>terval [t, t + 1))<br />
Vt + Pt − vVt+1 (the <strong>in</strong>sured is alive at time t + 1).<br />
Let the stochastic variable Y be the present value at time 0 of the company’s surplus<br />
of the <strong>in</strong>surance.
The Net Premium Reserve and Thiele’s Differential Equation 31<br />
(a) Interpret Gt and show that<br />
(b) Show that<br />
Y =<br />
VarY =<br />
∞<br />
v t Gt.<br />
t=0<br />
∞<br />
Var(v t Gt).<br />
t=0<br />
G1, G2, . . . are not necessarily stochastically <strong>in</strong>dependent, but note that (b) is valid<br />
regardless of whether G0, G1, . . . are stochastically <strong>in</strong>dependent or not.<br />
(c) Show that Hattendorf’s Formula<br />
is valid.<br />
VarY =<br />
∞<br />
tpxv<br />
t=0<br />
2t+2 px+tqx+t(St+1 − Vt+1) 2<br />
(SP(58))<br />
Exercise 4.11 In this exercise we are to study an endowment <strong>in</strong>surance with return<br />
of premium paid at death before expiration. Consider a person of age x who wishes<br />
to buy an <strong>in</strong>surance with age of expiration x + n, and where the premium is paid<br />
cont<strong>in</strong>uously with level <strong>in</strong>tensity p as long as he is alive dur<strong>in</strong>g the <strong>in</strong>surance period.<br />
The lump sum S = 1 is paid if he is alive at age x + n and if he dies before that<br />
the premium paid so far will be returned with <strong>in</strong>terest (basic <strong>in</strong>terest i) earned. We<br />
disregard expenses.<br />
(a) Show that the variable payment at death is given by<br />
Bt = pa t|(1 + i) t .<br />
(b) Determ<strong>in</strong>e the cont<strong>in</strong>uous premium <strong>in</strong>tensity p.<br />
(c) F<strong>in</strong>d the net premium reserve Vt at time t, t ∈ [0, n).<br />
(d) Put up Thiele’s differential equation and determ<strong>in</strong>e the risk sum.<br />
(e) Comment on the results and evaluate whether or not you will recommend the<br />
<strong>in</strong>surance company to issue this k<strong>in</strong>d of <strong>in</strong>surance.<br />
(FM1 exam, summer 1985)
32 <strong>Exercises</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong><br />
Exercise 4.12 An n-year deferred whole-life annuity on the longest last<strong>in</strong>g life has<br />
been issued to two persons (x) and (y). Annual amount of 1 and level cont<strong>in</strong>uous<br />
premium on the longest last<strong>in</strong>g life with <strong>in</strong>tensity π dur<strong>in</strong>g the deferment period. The<br />
forces of mortality are denoted by µx and νy<br />
Put up a retrospective expression for the net reserve at time t assum<strong>in</strong>g that both<br />
are alive.<br />
(Eksamen i Forsikr<strong>in</strong>gsvidenskab og Statistik (rev.), w<strong>in</strong>ter 1944-45)<br />
Exercise 4.13 A family annuity is an <strong>in</strong>surance contract of one life that assures<br />
payment of a cont<strong>in</strong>uous annual annuity from the possible death of the <strong>in</strong>sured dur<strong>in</strong>g<br />
the <strong>in</strong>surance period until the expiration of the contract after n years. Force of<br />
mortality µx, <strong>in</strong>terest rate i, age at entry x.<br />
(a) Put up the formulas for the net premium reserves, prospectively and retrospectively,<br />
with level cont<strong>in</strong>uous premium payment π. Show that if the <strong>in</strong>sured does not<br />
die dur<strong>in</strong>g the <strong>in</strong>surance period the reserve will at least once become negative.<br />
(b) Discuss how the total premium reserve of this contract for a portfolio of identical<br />
contract issued at the same time will develop dur<strong>in</strong>g the <strong>in</strong>surance period. Show that<br />
this reserve never becomes negative.<br />
(The students of 1946 had 10 hours to complete this exercise!)<br />
(Aktuarembetseksamen (rev.), Oslo fall 1946)<br />
Exercise 4.14 Dur<strong>in</strong>g construction of a technical basis with mortality of death and<br />
mortality of survival it is a problem that the premium for an <strong>in</strong>surance can depend<br />
on whether the <strong>in</strong>surance stands alone or it is comb<strong>in</strong>ed with other <strong>in</strong>surances.<br />
This exercise describes the attempts made under construction of G82 <strong>in</strong> order to solve<br />
this problem of additivity.<br />
Consider an <strong>in</strong>surance<br />
issued aga<strong>in</strong>st a s<strong>in</strong>gle premium.<br />
Ax:n| + s · n|ax<br />
Thiele’s differential equation for the net premium reserve is<br />
∂Vx(t)<br />
∂t =<br />
<br />
δVx(t) − ˜µx+t(1 − Vx(t)) (0 < t < n)<br />
δVx(t) − s + ˜µx+tVx(t) (n < t)<br />
(4.1)
The Net Premium Reserve and Thiele’s Differential Equation 33<br />
where ˜µx+t is the actual expected force of mortality. Introduce the first order forces<br />
of mortality µ and ˆµ which satisfy<br />
and replace (4.1) by<br />
∂Vx(t)<br />
∂t =<br />
<br />
µx+t < ˜µx+t < ˆµx+t,<br />
(δ + µx+t)Vx(t) − ˆµx+t (0 < t < n)<br />
(δ + µx+t)Vx(t) − s (n < t).<br />
(4.2)<br />
Thus we get a smaller <strong>in</strong>crease of the reserve and we get a technical basis “on the safe<br />
side”.<br />
(a) Determ<strong>in</strong>e the s<strong>in</strong>gle premium on the first order technical basis by solv<strong>in</strong>g (4.2).<br />
Consider the special case<br />
and let<br />
and<br />
ˆµx = (µx + g2)(1 + g1),<br />
µ ∗<br />
x = µx + g2<br />
δ ∗ = δ − g2.<br />
(b) What will the s<strong>in</strong>gle premium be <strong>in</strong> this case? Comment on the result.<br />
Now consider an educational endowment ax|n|.<br />
(c) Put up the differential equations (4.1) and (4.2) and solve (4.2) for the special<br />
case above. What is the problem <strong>in</strong> this case?<br />
F<strong>in</strong>ally consider a survival annuity ax|y.<br />
(d) Answer the same question as <strong>in</strong> (c).<br />
(SP(99))
34 <strong>Exercises</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong><br />
5. Expenses<br />
Exercise 5.1 Work out the details <strong>in</strong> RN <strong>in</strong> the case where α ′′ = β ′′ = γ ′′ = 0.<br />
(RN(1) “Expenses, gross premiums and reserves” 12.10.90 rev. 13.03.93)<br />
Exercise 5.2 Express V g<br />
t and c g <strong>in</strong> terms of V n<br />
t and c n and α ′ <strong>in</strong> the case where<br />
α ′′ = β ′′ = γ ′′ = γ ′′′ = 0.<br />
(RN(2) “Expenses, gross premiums and reserves” 12.10.90 rev. 13.03.93)<br />
Exercise 5.3 Treat the case of a level annuity payable upon death <strong>in</strong> (m, n) aga<strong>in</strong>st<br />
level premiums <strong>in</strong> (0, m).<br />
(RN(3) “Expenses, gross premiums and reserves” 12.10.90 rev. 13.03.93)<br />
Exercise 5.4 Consider an n-year deferred whole-life annuity, age at entry x, payable<br />
with level cont<strong>in</strong>uous <strong>in</strong>tensity S. Level gross cont<strong>in</strong>uous premium <strong>in</strong>tensity p payable<br />
dur<strong>in</strong>g the deferment period. The premium is determ<strong>in</strong>ed by the equivalence pr<strong>in</strong>ciple.<br />
For now assume that the expenses are <strong>in</strong>itial expenses αS, load<strong>in</strong>g for collection<br />
fees due cont<strong>in</strong>uously with level <strong>in</strong>tensity βp and adm<strong>in</strong>istration costs also due cont<strong>in</strong>uously<br />
with level <strong>in</strong>tensity γS.<br />
(a) F<strong>in</strong>d p and the prospective gross premium reserve V g<br />
t .<br />
Because of <strong>in</strong>flation, load<strong>in</strong>g for collection fees and adm<strong>in</strong>istration expenses are paid<br />
with <strong>in</strong>tensities βf(t)p and γf(t)S at time t.<br />
(b) Put up exspressions for p and V g<br />
t .<br />
(b) F<strong>in</strong>d p and V g<br />
t when f(t) = 1 + kt and where f(t) = exp(ct).<br />
(SP(62))<br />
Exercise 5.5 Consider a whole-life life <strong>in</strong>surance, sum <strong>in</strong>sured 1, age at entry x,<br />
s<strong>in</strong>gle net premium B.<br />
(a) Show that the expected effective <strong>in</strong>terest rate for the <strong>in</strong>sured is<br />
∞<br />
0<br />
1 −<br />
B t<br />
tpxµx+tdt − 1.
Expenses 35<br />
Assume that the company has some <strong>in</strong>itial expenses α, but no other expenses.<br />
(b) What is the expected effective <strong>in</strong>terest rate?<br />
(SP(60))<br />
Exercise 5.6 A simple capital <strong>in</strong>surance, sum <strong>in</strong>sured S, duration n, pays out S at<br />
time n from the time of issue no matter if the <strong>in</strong>sured is alive or not.<br />
(a) Put up an expression for the net payment for this <strong>in</strong>surance and expla<strong>in</strong> why it is<br />
<strong>in</strong>dependent of the age at entry.<br />
A simple capital <strong>in</strong>surance only makes sense if it is not paid by a s<strong>in</strong>gle payment (when<br />
deal<strong>in</strong>g with <strong>in</strong>surance). Assume that the premium is paid cont<strong>in</strong>uously dur<strong>in</strong>g the<br />
entire <strong>in</strong>surance period with level <strong>in</strong>tensity p, but only if the <strong>in</strong>sured is alive. The<br />
premium is determ<strong>in</strong>ed by the equivalence pr<strong>in</strong>ciple.<br />
(b) What will the net premium be?<br />
In the gross premium p, <strong>in</strong>itial expenses αS are <strong>in</strong>cluded as well as load<strong>in</strong>g for collection<br />
fees βp and adm<strong>in</strong>istration expenses γS paid cont<strong>in</strong>uously.<br />
(c) Determ<strong>in</strong>e p.<br />
(d) Put up an expression for the prospective gross premium reserve, both when the<br />
<strong>in</strong>sured is alive as well as when he is dead.<br />
(SP(61))<br />
The follow<strong>in</strong>g exercise exam<strong>in</strong>es what happens to the <strong>in</strong>surance technical quantities<br />
when we br<strong>in</strong>g surrender <strong>in</strong>to consideration.<br />
Exercise 5.7 Consider an n-year endowment <strong>in</strong>surance, age of entry x, benefits are<br />
S1 if one dies dur<strong>in</strong>g the <strong>in</strong>surance period and S2 if one obta<strong>in</strong>s the age of x + n.<br />
<strong>Life</strong> conditioned equivalence premium is paid cont<strong>in</strong>uously until time n (from the age<br />
of entry). Moreover assume that surrender can take place at any time dur<strong>in</strong>g the<br />
premium payment period, and that the present value of the conventionally calculated<br />
gross premium reserve, liquidated by surrender, is positive. By surrender at time t<br />
the company pays out G(t).<br />
(a) Now disregard all expenses and assume that G(t) is lesser than or equal to the<br />
conventionally calculated (net) premium reserve at time t. Instead of us<strong>in</strong>g a conventional<br />
technique, the company could itself br<strong>in</strong>g surrender <strong>in</strong>to consideration and
36 <strong>Exercises</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong>to its own technical basis. Show that the equivalence pr<strong>in</strong>ciple then would lead to a<br />
premium P ′ ≤ P . Discuss conditions for P ′ = P and give a lower limit for how small<br />
P ′ can get when G(·) varies. Here and <strong>in</strong> the follow<strong>in</strong>g it might be useful to study<br />
Thiele’s differential equation.<br />
Now assume that some adm<strong>in</strong>istration costs are not neglectible. The expenses consist<br />
of the amount α <strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong>itial expenses, of γ <strong>in</strong> adm<strong>in</strong>istration costs per time unit and<br />
of a fraction β of the actual annual gross premium P <strong>in</strong> load<strong>in</strong>g for collection fees, P<br />
calculated conventionally. Upon surrender 100θ% of the gross premium reserve is paid<br />
out if the reserve is positive, 0 ≤ θ ≤ 1. By surrender where the gross premium reserve<br />
is positive, a fixed percentage of the reserve is deducted to cover the loss experienced<br />
by surrender where the gross premium reserve is negative. For now disregard expenses<br />
that fall upon surrender. This gross premium reserve is calculated without respect to<br />
surrender.<br />
(b) Show that you will get a lesser gross premium reserve if you br<strong>in</strong>g surrender<br />
<strong>in</strong>to consideration. Assume that θ is chosen so that the equivalence pr<strong>in</strong>ciple can be<br />
applied anyway.<br />
(c) Now assume that <strong>in</strong> the above situation a constant expense ξ is associated with<br />
the actual payment of G(t). If G(t) calculated <strong>in</strong> (b) is smaller than ξ, noth<strong>in</strong>g is paid<br />
out by surrender. When the value upon surrender mentioned exceeds ξ the difference<br />
is paid out. Show that the actual gross premium reserve still will be lesser than the<br />
conventional when surrender is brought <strong>in</strong>to consideration. Can θ still be determ<strong>in</strong>ed<br />
so that the equivalence premium still can be applied?<br />
(FM1 exam (rev.), summer 1979)<br />
Exercise 5.8 It has been proposed that the adm<strong>in</strong>istration expenses should be calculated<br />
as be<strong>in</strong>g proportional to the gross premium reserve <strong>in</strong>stead of be<strong>in</strong>g proportional<br />
to the sum <strong>in</strong>sured. Now consider an n-year endowment <strong>in</strong>surance, level cont<strong>in</strong>uous<br />
gross premium <strong>in</strong>tensity p, sum <strong>in</strong>sured S, age at entry x. Acquisition expenses αS.<br />
Load<strong>in</strong>g for collection fees βp and γVt at time t, respectively. Vt denotes the gross<br />
premium reserve. Adm<strong>in</strong>istration costs fall due cont<strong>in</strong>uously with level <strong>in</strong>tensity γVt<br />
at time t.<br />
(a) Put up Thiele’s differential equation for Vt.<br />
(b) Solve the differential equation with <strong>in</strong>itial conditions for t = 0 and t = n − and<br />
show that the solutions can be expressed by expected present values for annuities<br />
with another <strong>in</strong>terest rate than the <strong>in</strong>terest rate of the technical basis.<br />
(c) Determ<strong>in</strong>e the equivalence premium.
Expenses 37<br />
In G82 the <strong>in</strong>terest rate is i = 5% p. a. but gross premiums and gross reserves are<br />
calculated with an <strong>in</strong>terest rate of 4.5% p. a.<br />
(d) What is the correspond<strong>in</strong>g value of γ?<br />
(SP(64))<br />
Exercise 5.9. (Equipment <strong>Insurance</strong>) By an equipment <strong>in</strong>surance, sum <strong>in</strong>sured S,<br />
<strong>in</strong>surance period n, the sum S is paid out at time n if the <strong>in</strong>sured is still alive; if he<br />
dies dur<strong>in</strong>g the <strong>in</strong>surance period, the company returns the up till now paid premiums<br />
without <strong>in</strong>terest earned. The level gross premium <strong>in</strong>tensity p is payable dur<strong>in</strong>g the<br />
entire <strong>in</strong>surance period. The expenses are <strong>in</strong>itial expenses αS, load<strong>in</strong>g for collection<br />
fees due with cont<strong>in</strong>uous level <strong>in</strong>tensity βp and cont<strong>in</strong>uous adm<strong>in</strong>istration costs due<br />
with level <strong>in</strong>tensity γS.<br />
Put up an expression for p apply<strong>in</strong>g the equivalence pr<strong>in</strong>ciple.<br />
(SP(66))<br />
Exercise 5.10. (Child’s <strong>Insurance</strong>) A person aged x has been issued a child’s<br />
<strong>in</strong>surance: If the <strong>in</strong>sured dies dur<strong>in</strong>g [x, y) the gross premium is paid back with<br />
earned <strong>in</strong>terest accord<strong>in</strong>g to the technical basis. If he dies dur<strong>in</strong>g [y, u) the sum S is<br />
immediately paid out and if he is alive at age u, then S is paid out. The level gross<br />
premium p, the adm<strong>in</strong>istration costs γS and load<strong>in</strong>g for collection fees βp fall due<br />
cont<strong>in</strong>uously dur<strong>in</strong>g the <strong>in</strong>surance period. Acquisition expenses are αS.<br />
(a) Put up Thiele’s differential equation for this <strong>in</strong>surance.<br />
(b) F<strong>in</strong>d the prospective gross premium reserve at any time dur<strong>in</strong>g the <strong>in</strong>surance<br />
period.<br />
(c) What is the gross (equivalence) premium <strong>in</strong>tensity, and what is the risk sum at<br />
any time with this premium.<br />
(SP(68))<br />
Exercise 5.11 Consider an n-year endowment <strong>in</strong>surance, sum <strong>in</strong>sured S, age at<br />
issue x, premium payable until time m, <strong>in</strong>itial expenses αS, adm<strong>in</strong>istration costs and<br />
load<strong>in</strong>g for collection fees due dur<strong>in</strong>g the entire <strong>in</strong>surance period cont<strong>in</strong>uously with<br />
level <strong>in</strong>tensities γS and βp g respsctively, where p g is the level gross premium <strong>in</strong>tensity.<br />
Assume that m ≤ n and γ < δ.<br />
(a) Give an expression for p g apply<strong>in</strong>g the equivalence pr<strong>in</strong>ciple and prove that it can
38 <strong>Exercises</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong><br />
be cast as<br />
(b) Show that ˜ β > β and ˜γ > γ.<br />
p g = Ax:n| + ˜γax:n|<br />
(1 − ˜ S.<br />
β)ax:m|<br />
The numerator of the expression is the so-called passive with added sum, because it<br />
is produced from the net passive Ax:n| <strong>in</strong>creased by the present value of ˜γ dur<strong>in</strong>g the<br />
entire <strong>in</strong>surance period. This passive is denoted by A S<br />
x:n| .<br />
Let Vt be the net premium reserve at time t (calculated from the time of issue) and<br />
let V 1<br />
t be Vt <strong>in</strong>creased by the reserve of the future adm<strong>in</strong>istration costs.<br />
(c) Give expressions for Vt and V 1<br />
t .<br />
The company ought to set aside the reserve V 1<br />
t<br />
is set aside.<br />
but normally the reserve<br />
V 2<br />
t = SA S<br />
x+t:n−1| − (1 − ˜ β)p g a x+t:m−t|<br />
(d) Compare Vt, V 1<br />
t and V 2<br />
t and try to expla<strong>in</strong> why one prefers to set aside V 2<br />
t <strong>in</strong>stead<br />
of V 1<br />
t .<br />
If the <strong>in</strong>sured wishes to surrender his contract at time t, the company pays him the<br />
surrender value of the contract Gt, which is the reserve V 1<br />
t less the part of the <strong>in</strong>itial<br />
expenses that have not yet been amortized.<br />
(e) Show that the surrender value can be cast as<br />
Gt = S(A x+t:n−t| + γa x+t:n−t|) − (1 − β)p g a x+t:m−t|.<br />
The coefficient for S is the surrender value passive and is denoted by A g<br />
x:n| .<br />
(f) F<strong>in</strong>d an expression for the difference between the net premium reserve and the<br />
surrender value and prove that for m = n it is α(S − Vt).<br />
If the <strong>in</strong>sured wishes to cancel the payment of premiums without entirely to surrender<br />
the contract, it is called a premium free policy. The size of this policy is determ<strong>in</strong>ed by<br />
lett<strong>in</strong>g the surrender value of the new policy equal the surrender value of the orig<strong>in</strong>al<br />
policy at the time of change.<br />
(g) Give an expression for the sum of the premium free policy and show that its<br />
reserve at the time of change is lesser than the reserve of the orig<strong>in</strong>al policy.
Expenses 39<br />
Assume that the annual gross premium is given by<br />
where ε is called the cont<strong>in</strong>uity factor.<br />
¨p g = εp g ,<br />
(h) Expla<strong>in</strong> why the surrender value and the reserve can be cast as<br />
and<br />
respectively.<br />
SA g<br />
x+t:n−t| − ζ ¨p g a x+t:m−t|<br />
SA S<br />
x+t:n−t| − η¨p g a x+t:m−t|,<br />
(SP(70 rev.))<br />
Exercise 5.12 A married man considers a life <strong>in</strong>surance on the follow<strong>in</strong>g conditions:<br />
(i) If he dies before time r from time of issue of the contract, the company has to pay<br />
a cont<strong>in</strong>uous pension with level <strong>in</strong>tensity s <strong>in</strong> a period of time m.<br />
He furthermore considers a supplementary pension, also with level <strong>in</strong>tensity s which is<br />
due to <strong>in</strong>itiate right after the expiration of the pension (i). He considers two options:<br />
(ii) The supplementary pension is due as long as his wife lives.<br />
(iii) The supplementary pension is due as long as his wife lives, at the most until time<br />
n from the time of issue, n > m + r.<br />
As a second alternative he considers a survival annuity, also with payment <strong>in</strong>tensity<br />
s. Here he considers two options:<br />
(iv) The annuity <strong>in</strong>itiates if the man dies before time r from the time of issue and is<br />
due as long as his wife lives.<br />
(v) The annuity <strong>in</strong>itiates if the man dies before time r from the time of issue and is<br />
due as long as his wife lives, at the most until time n from the time of issue, n > r.<br />
(a) Put up an expression for the s<strong>in</strong>gle net premium for these five contracts.<br />
Assume that the above contracts are issued aga<strong>in</strong>st an annual premium payment paid<br />
<strong>in</strong> advance as long as the man and his wife are alive, at the most until time r from<br />
the time of issue. If one of the two dies dur<strong>in</strong>g the <strong>in</strong>surance period, the amount<br />
(a θ| /a 1|)P is be<strong>in</strong>g returned (<strong>in</strong> Danish: Ristorno), where θ is the rema<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g part of<br />
the last premium payment period and P is the term premium.
40 <strong>Exercises</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong><br />
(b) How would you calculate the annual net premiums?<br />
(c) Put up an expression for the net premium reserve at any time dur<strong>in</strong>g the <strong>in</strong>surance<br />
period for the last <strong>in</strong>surance (v) apply<strong>in</strong>g the recently described premium payment<br />
pr<strong>in</strong>ciples.<br />
When calculat<strong>in</strong>g the gross premiums, the company uses the follow<strong>in</strong>g expense rates:<br />
Initial expenses αS, load<strong>in</strong>g for collection fees β times the gross premium, adm<strong>in</strong>istration<br />
costs due cont<strong>in</strong>uously with <strong>in</strong>tensityand γ times the gross premium reserve<br />
at any time, and f<strong>in</strong>ally payment costs of ε times the amount paid out.<br />
(d) F<strong>in</strong>d the cont<strong>in</strong>uous gross premium <strong>in</strong>tensity, apply<strong>in</strong>g the equivalence pr<strong>in</strong>ciple.<br />
(e) F<strong>in</strong>d the gross premium when the premium payment takes place as described<br />
before (b).<br />
(SP(76) rev.)
Select Mortality 41<br />
Exercise 6.1<br />
6. Select Mortality<br />
(a) What could be the mean<strong>in</strong>g of the symbol s|tq[x]+u?<br />
(b) Put up an expression for 2|6q[30]+2 <strong>in</strong> terms of ℓ under the assumption that the<br />
period of selection is 5 years.<br />
(c) Express the follow<strong>in</strong>g three quantities with one symbol:<br />
• The probability that a person now 50 years old who got <strong>in</strong>sured 3 years ago dies<br />
between the ages of 58 and 59, presum<strong>in</strong>g the period of selection is 5 years,<br />
• the probability that a new born dies between 67 and 72 years of age,<br />
• the number of deaths between the ages of 29 and 30 <strong>in</strong> the third year of an<br />
<strong>in</strong>surance portfolio, presum<strong>in</strong>g the period af selection now is 3 years.<br />
(SP(25))<br />
Exercise 6.2 In this exercise we will try to expla<strong>in</strong> the presence of select mortality<br />
for a portfolio of <strong>in</strong>sured and study its properties.<br />
For two functions f and g we shall use the obvious notation<br />
fg(t) = f(t)g(t), (f + g)(t) = f(t) + g(t).<br />
The portfolio is assumed to be divided between the two states active and disabled<br />
accord<strong>in</strong>g to the figure below where the course of events is modelled by a Markov<br />
process {Xt}t≥0, and t is the age of the <strong>in</strong>sured.<br />
σ(t)<br />
<br />
1. Active <br />
<br />
2. Disabled<br />
<br />
ρ(t)<br />
<br />
µ(t) <br />
ν(t) <br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
3. Dead<br />
The transition probabilities of the model are denoted by<br />
pij(s, t) = P (Xt = j | Xs = i), s ≤ t, i, j = 1, 2, 3
42 <strong>Exercises</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong><br />
and the <strong>in</strong>tensities µij(t) are assumed to exist and are given by<br />
µij(t) = lim<br />
h↘0<br />
pij(t, t + h)<br />
, i = j.<br />
h<br />
We assume that the <strong>in</strong>tensities are cont<strong>in</strong>uous functions. Def<strong>in</strong>e<br />
and<br />
We take it that<br />
µ(t) = µ13(t), ν(t) = µ23(t), σ(t) = µ12(t), ρ(t) = µ21(t)<br />
µ1(t) = µ(t) + σ(t), µ2(t) = ρ(t) + ν(t).<br />
µ(t) < ν(t), ∀t ≥ 0,<br />
i. e. the mortality for a disabled is always greater than for an active person.<br />
When we cannot observe whether an <strong>in</strong>sured is active or disabled at any time after<br />
entry (as an active), one gets a filtration (of the above Markov model) which is<br />
determ<strong>in</strong>ed by the force of mortality for a random <strong>in</strong>sured. Let ˜µ(τ, x) denote this<br />
<strong>in</strong>tensity for an <strong>in</strong>sured of age x with age of entry τ, τ ≤ x.<br />
(a) Expla<strong>in</strong> that ˜µ is given by<br />
˜µ(τ, x) = µ(x)<br />
p11<br />
p11 + p12<br />
(τ, x) + ν(x)<br />
= µ(x) + {ν(x) − µ(x)}<br />
p12<br />
p11 + p12<br />
p12<br />
p11 + p12<br />
and thus give the grounds for the presence of select mortality.<br />
(τ, x)<br />
(τ, x)<br />
We obviously want τ → ˜µ(τ, x) to be decreas<strong>in</strong>g for fixed x which will be shown by<br />
differentiation <strong>in</strong> the follow<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
(b) Expla<strong>in</strong> that τ → ˜µ(τ, x) is decreas<strong>in</strong>g iff the fraction τ → (p12/p11)(τ, x) is<br />
decreas<strong>in</strong>g and give an <strong>in</strong>terpretation of this.<br />
(c) Show that<br />
d<br />
dτ<br />
p12<br />
p11<br />
<br />
(τ, x) = σ(τ)(p12p21 − p11p22)(τ, x)<br />
p 2 11(τ, x)<br />
and<br />
d<br />
dτ (p12p21 − p11p22)(τ, x) = {µ1(τ) + µ2(τ)}(p12p21 − p11p22)(τ, x),<br />
and expla<strong>in</strong> why τ → ˜µ(τ, x) is decreas<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
Let ˆpij(s, t) denote the transition probabilities correspond<strong>in</strong>g to the model without<br />
recovery, i. e. ρ(t) = 0, ∀t ≥ 0.
Select Mortality 43<br />
(d) F<strong>in</strong>d expressions for ˆp11(τ, x) and ˆp12(τ, x) as a function of the <strong>in</strong>tensities and<br />
show that<br />
p12<br />
(τ, x) < ˆp12<br />
(τ, x).<br />
p11<br />
Give an <strong>in</strong>terpretation of this and expla<strong>in</strong> how ˜µ is affected by chang<strong>in</strong>g to the model<br />
without recovery.<br />
It is a common op<strong>in</strong>ion that the selection the <strong>in</strong>sured goes through at entry disappears<br />
after a period of time, called the period of selection. We will try to expla<strong>in</strong> this<br />
phenomenon mathematically. Lad τ0 be the age of entry for an <strong>in</strong>sured.<br />
(e) Show that<br />
x<br />
x → exp<br />
τ0<br />
ˆp11<br />
<br />
µ1(s)ds p11(τ0, x), x ≥ τ0<br />
is an <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g function. Assume that µ2(t) ≥ µ1(t), ∀t ≥ 0 and that there exists a<br />
w > τ0 so that w<br />
(µ2(t) − µ1(t))dt = ∞.<br />
Show that<br />
τ0<br />
d<br />
lim<br />
x↗w dτ<br />
p12<br />
p11<br />
<br />
(τ0, x) = 0<br />
monotonically with<br />
<br />
d p12<br />
(τ0, x) = 0, ∀x ≥ w,<br />
dτ p11<br />
and expla<strong>in</strong> why this verifies the presence of a period of selection of w.<br />
(FM1 exam, 1989-ordn<strong>in</strong>g, opgave 1, summer 1995)<br />
Exercise 6.3 Mortality <strong>in</strong> a portfolio of <strong>in</strong>sured lives will usually be different from<br />
the mortality of the general population because the <strong>in</strong>sured lives are a selected part<br />
of the population. We will <strong>in</strong> this exercise study one relationship that is assumed to<br />
contribute a great deal to the effect of selection, i. e. the fact that people with illnesses<br />
that cause severe excess mortality are not allowed to underwrite life <strong>in</strong>surances<br />
(under the usual terms). In the follow<strong>in</strong>g such persons will be called “ill”. Thus the<br />
population can be divided accord<strong>in</strong>g to the figure below.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
0. Not <strong>in</strong>sured, not ill<br />
<br />
κx<br />
<br />
<br />
ρx<br />
1. Insured, not ill<br />
κx<br />
<br />
σx<br />
4. Dead<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
λx <br />
λx<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
σx<br />
3. Not <strong>in</strong>sured, ill<br />
2. Insured, ill
44 <strong>Exercises</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong><br />
Now assume that every person enters state “0” at birth and that the transitions<br />
between the states afterwards go on as a time cont<strong>in</strong>uous Markov cha<strong>in</strong> with transition<br />
<strong>in</strong>tensities only dependent on the age x as <strong>in</strong>dicated <strong>in</strong> the figure. Excess mortality<br />
for the ill persons means that<br />
with “>” for some values of x.<br />
λx ≥ κx, x > 0, (6.1)<br />
With the usual notation for the transition probabilities the follow<strong>in</strong>g are satisfied<br />
p11(x − t, x) = e −<br />
x<br />
x−t (σu+κu)du , (6.2)<br />
x z<br />
p12(x − t, x) = e<br />
x−t<br />
−<br />
x−t (σu+κu)du σze −<br />
x<br />
z λudu dz, 0 < t < x; (6.3)<br />
p00(0, x) = e −<br />
x<br />
0 (σu+κu+ρu)du p01(0, x) =<br />
,<br />
e<br />
(6.4)<br />
−<br />
x<br />
0 (σu+κu)du (1 − e −<br />
x<br />
0 ρudu p02(0, x) =<br />
),<br />
x<br />
e<br />
(6.5)<br />
−<br />
z<br />
0 (σu+κu)du (1 − e −<br />
z<br />
0 ρudu )σze −<br />
x<br />
z λudu dz, (6.6)<br />
p03(0, x) =<br />
0<br />
x<br />
0<br />
e −<br />
z<br />
0 (σu+κu+ρu)du σze −<br />
x<br />
z λudu dz, 0 < x. (6.7)<br />
(a) Prove the formulas (6.2) and (6.3) by putt<strong>in</strong>g up and solv<strong>in</strong>g differential equations.<br />
(b) Assume that (6.4) is given. Give direct, <strong>in</strong>formal grounds for the expressions (6.5)<br />
– (6.7).<br />
The <strong>in</strong>sured lives are either <strong>in</strong> state “1” or <strong>in</strong> state “2” (those <strong>in</strong> state “2” received<br />
the <strong>in</strong>surance contract before they were struck by illness). The <strong>in</strong>surance company<br />
does not observe <strong>in</strong> which of the two states the <strong>in</strong>sured is. All the company knows is<br />
the time of entry and age. Let µ[x−t]+t denote the force of mortality for an <strong>in</strong>sured of<br />
age x who received the <strong>in</strong>surance t years ago.<br />
(c) Derive an expression for µ[x−t]+t. Show that under the condition (6.1), µ[x−t]+t is<br />
a non-decreas<strong>in</strong>g function of t for constant x (it might be desirable to express µ[x−t]+t<br />
as a weighted average of κx and λx). How will you expla<strong>in</strong> this result to a person who<br />
has no knowledge of actuarial science?<br />
(d) Discuss the formula for µ[x−t]+t to f<strong>in</strong>d theoretical explanations as to why <strong>in</strong>surance<br />
companies operate with a period of selection s so that the mortality is considered to<br />
be aggregate for t > s.<br />
Let µ x denote the force of mortality for a randomly chosen person of age x <strong>in</strong> the<br />
population (that is, we do not observe <strong>in</strong> which of the states “0” – “3” the person is).
Select Mortality 45<br />
(e) F<strong>in</strong>d an expression for µ x. Show that under the condition (6.1) the <strong>in</strong>equality<br />
µ x ≥ µ[x−t]+t, 0 < t < x<br />
is satisfied. The result clarifies the prelim<strong>in</strong>ary remarks of this exercise. Try to give an<br />
explanation that is comprehensible for a person without any knowledge of actuarial<br />
mathematics.<br />
(FM1 exam (1), w<strong>in</strong>ter 1985/86)
46 <strong>Exercises</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong><br />
7. Markov Cha<strong>in</strong>s <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong><br />
FM0 S94, 1<br />
Exercise 7.1 Consider a model for compet<strong>in</strong>g risks with k + 1 states, 0: “alive” and<br />
1, . . . , k denot<strong>in</strong>g death from k different reasons; denote the partial probabilities of<br />
death by<br />
and def<strong>in</strong>e<br />
(a) Prove that<br />
(b) Prove that<br />
k<br />
j=1<br />
tp 0j<br />
x<br />
=<br />
+<br />
k<br />
j=1<br />
tq (j)<br />
x<br />
t<br />
= 1 − exp − µ<br />
0<br />
0j<br />
<br />
x+τdτ ,<br />
tp (j)<br />
x = 1 − tq (j)<br />
x .<br />
tp 00<br />
x =<br />
tq (j)<br />
x − <br />
<br />
1≤h
Markov Cha<strong>in</strong>s <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> 47<br />
enumerated 1, . . . , N. The development of the policy is be<strong>in</strong>g described by a Markov<br />
process with transition <strong>in</strong>tensities µ jk<br />
t for transition from state j to state k at time t<br />
from issue.<br />
In the contract it is stated that the amount B jk<br />
t is payable upon transition from state<br />
j to state k at time t. As long as the policy stays <strong>in</strong> state j, a cont<strong>in</strong>uous payment<br />
with <strong>in</strong>tensity B j<br />
t is due, i. e. <strong>in</strong> the time <strong>in</strong>terval [t, t + ∆t) the amount B j<br />
t ∆t + o(∆t)<br />
is paid out. Assume that all amounts B jk<br />
t are non-negative and that the force of<br />
<strong>in</strong>terest δ is <strong>in</strong>dependent of time. For now we disregard adm<strong>in</strong>istration expenses.<br />
(a) There are no assumptions regard<strong>in</strong>g the sign of B j<br />
t . How should negative values<br />
of B j<br />
t be <strong>in</strong>terpreted?<br />
Let V j<br />
t denote the premium reserve <strong>in</strong> state j at time t. It is def<strong>in</strong>ed as the expected<br />
present value of the out payments <strong>in</strong> the time <strong>in</strong>terval [t, ∞) discounted back until<br />
time t, given that the policy is <strong>in</strong> state j at time t.<br />
(b) Show that the premium reserve satisfies the differential equation system<br />
−B j<br />
t = d j<br />
Vt − δV<br />
dt j<br />
t + <br />
k=j<br />
µ jk<br />
t (B jk<br />
t + V k<br />
t − V j<br />
t ), j = 1, . . . , N.<br />
(c) Interpret this differential equation system <strong>in</strong>tuitively <strong>in</strong> terms of sav<strong>in</strong>gs premium<br />
and risk premium.<br />
A special case of the this general Markov model is the disability model. This model<br />
has three states, 1, 2 and 3, correspond<strong>in</strong>g to active, disabled and dead. The <strong>in</strong>sured’s<br />
age at entry is x and the <strong>in</strong>tensities are denoted by<br />
All other transition <strong>in</strong>tensities are 0.<br />
µ 12<br />
t = σx+t (from active to disabled),<br />
µ 21<br />
y = ρx+t (recovery),<br />
µ 13<br />
y = µx+t (dead as active),<br />
µ 23<br />
t = νx+t (dead as disabled).<br />
Apply this model for an <strong>in</strong>vestigation of an endowment <strong>in</strong>surance with exemption<br />
from payment of premiums by disability. Assume the <strong>in</strong>sured is active at entry. The<br />
<strong>in</strong>surance period is n, so the <strong>in</strong>surance cancels when the <strong>in</strong>sured has reached the age<br />
of x + n or if he dies before that.<br />
In question (d) it is assumed that the equivalence premium is paid cont<strong>in</strong>uously with<br />
level <strong>in</strong>tensity π as long as the <strong>in</strong>sured is active and that a constant sum <strong>in</strong>sured S
48 <strong>Exercises</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong><br />
is payable upon the expiration of the policy; hence, with the notation from above we<br />
have<br />
B 1<br />
t<br />
= −π, B2<br />
t<br />
= 0, B13<br />
t<br />
= B23<br />
t<br />
= S.<br />
(d) Come up with formulas for π, V 1<br />
t and V 2<br />
t for 0 ≤ t < n <strong>in</strong> terms of the transition<br />
probabilities and transition <strong>in</strong>tensities <strong>in</strong> the model and the discount<strong>in</strong>g rate v, by<br />
direct prospective reason<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
If the premium and the benefits depend on the reserves, the premium and the premium<br />
reserve cannot be determ<strong>in</strong>ed directly as <strong>in</strong> (d); <strong>in</strong>stead the differential equation<br />
system from (b) must be solved with appropriate boundary conditions. Now it is<br />
assumed that the premium and the payment of benefit at age x + n are due as above,<br />
but upon death of the <strong>in</strong>sured before time x + n, the premium reserve of the policy is<br />
paid out as a supplement to the sum <strong>in</strong>sured; B j3<br />
t = S +V j<br />
t for j = 1, 2 and 0 < t < n.<br />
(e) Show that the differential equation system from (b) gives the grounds for a differential<br />
equation of first order <strong>in</strong> V 1<br />
t − V 2<br />
t . What is the <strong>in</strong>itial condition? Solve the<br />
differential equation.<br />
(f) What are π, V 1<br />
t and V 2<br />
t for 0 ≤ t < n.<br />
(g) Show that if νx+t ≥ µx+t for all t < n then V 2<br />
t<br />
result.<br />
> V 1<br />
t for all t < n. Interpret this<br />
Assume that we have the follow<strong>in</strong>g expenses: Initial expenses due at time 0 with<br />
an amount of αS, load<strong>in</strong>g for collection fees βp, where p is the level gross premium<br />
<strong>in</strong>tensity and adm<strong>in</strong>istration costs due with an <strong>in</strong>tensity at time t equal to γV j<br />
t if the<br />
policy is <strong>in</strong> state j.<br />
(h) Expla<strong>in</strong>, without perform<strong>in</strong>g any detailed calculations, what changes would follow<br />
from these assumptions <strong>in</strong> the theory discussed <strong>in</strong> (e) – (g).<br />
(FM1 exam , summer 1984)<br />
Exercise 7.3 An active person aged x considers a disability annuity, which falls due<br />
cont<strong>in</strong>uously with level <strong>in</strong>tensity b upon disability before the age of x+n. Premium is<br />
payable at rate π as long as the person is active dur<strong>in</strong>g the contract period. Assume<br />
that the state of the policy is S(t) at time t after the time of issue where {S(t)}t≥0 is<br />
a time cont<strong>in</strong>uous Markov model with state space and transitions as follows
Markov Cha<strong>in</strong>s <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> 49<br />
0. Active σ(x+t) <br />
<br />
1. Disabled<br />
<br />
<br />
µ(x+t) <br />
ν(x+t)<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
2. Dead<br />
(a) Give, without any proof, expressions for the transition probabilities<br />
pjk(s, t) = P (S(t) = k | S(s) = j), 0 ≤ s ≤ t, j, k ∈ {0, 1, 2}. (7.1)<br />
The present value at time s of benefits less premiums <strong>in</strong> [s, n] can be cast as<br />
C(s) =<br />
n<br />
v<br />
s<br />
t−s (b1{S(t)=1} − π1{S(t)=0})dt,<br />
where 1A is the <strong>in</strong>dicator function for the event A.<br />
(b) F<strong>in</strong>d, for 0 ≤ s ≤ n and j = 0, 1, 2, the conditional expection<br />
and the conditional variance<br />
Vj(s) = E(C(s) | S(s) = j) (7.2)<br />
Zj = Var(C(s) | S(s) = j) (7.3)<br />
as expressions of <strong>in</strong>tegrals of functions of the transition probabilities from (7.1).<br />
(c) F<strong>in</strong>d EC(s) and VarC(s) <strong>in</strong> terms of the transition probabilities (7.1) above and<br />
the functions (7.2) and (7.3).<br />
(d) Now assume that the equivalence pr<strong>in</strong>ciple is be<strong>in</strong>g adopted, i. e. V0(0) = 0, where<br />
π is the net premium <strong>in</strong>tensity and Vj(s) <strong>in</strong> (7.2) above is the net premium reserve <strong>in</strong><br />
state j at time s. Does the net reserve ever become negative?<br />
(FM1 exam opgave 1, summer 1989)<br />
Exercise 7.4 The figure below illustrates an expansion of the model discussed <strong>in</strong><br />
exercise 7.3. There are two states of disability i1 and i2 represent<strong>in</strong>g two degrees of<br />
disability. Assume that ν2(x+t) ≥ ν1(x+t). Let { ˜ S}t≥0 be the correspond<strong>in</strong>g Markov<br />
cha<strong>in</strong> and def<strong>in</strong>e the stochastic process {S(t)}t≥0 by S(t) = ˜ S(t) for ˜ S(t) ∈ {a, d} and<br />
S(t) = i for ˜ S(t) ∈ {i1, i2}. If one does not know the degree of disability, {S(t)} is<br />
the observable process.
50 <strong>Exercises</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong><br />
a.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
σ1(x+t)<br />
µ(x+t)<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
i1.<br />
ν1(x+t)<br />
<br />
d.<br />
σ2(x+t)<br />
<br />
The transition <strong>in</strong>tensities for the S(t)-process are<br />
<br />
i2.<br />
ν2(x+t)<br />
<br />
P (S(t + dt) = k | S(t) = j, {S(s)}s
Markov Cha<strong>in</strong>s <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> 51<br />
(a) F<strong>in</strong>d the second order differential equation for p00(s, ·) as outl<strong>in</strong>ed <strong>in</strong> the text,<br />
mak<strong>in</strong>g appropriate assumptions about differentiability of the <strong>in</strong>tensities.<br />
From now on consider the special case with constant <strong>in</strong>tensities:<br />
(b) F<strong>in</strong>d explicit solutions for p00(s, t) and p01(s, t). Note that the solution depends<br />
on s and t only through t − s, hence put s = 0. Discuss how the probabilities depend<br />
on t and the <strong>in</strong>tensities.<br />
(c) Calculate for t = 0, 10, 20, . . . , 100 and draw graphs of the probabilities for some<br />
different choices of the <strong>in</strong>tensities, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g as key references<br />
1. σ = 0.01, ρ = 0.01, µ = 0.005, ν = 0.005,<br />
2. σ = 0.01, ρ = 0.01, µ = 0.005, ν = 0.01,<br />
3. σ = 0.01, ρ = 0.01, µ = 0.005, ν = 0.1.<br />
(You can program the formulas and compute directly or you can employ the program<br />
’retres’.)<br />
(d) Expla<strong>in</strong> how the result 3. <strong>in</strong> item (c) above can be used to f<strong>in</strong>d the probabilites<br />
for the case σ = 0.1, ρ = 0.1, µ = 0.05, ν = 1. (The ratios between the <strong>in</strong>tensities are<br />
the essential feature.)<br />
(e) The probability p02(s, t) gives the mortality law for a person who is known to be<br />
active at age s. Discuss how it depends on the <strong>in</strong>tensities, with special attention to<br />
the case where µ = ν.<br />
(f) Consider the special case with no mortality (µ = ν = 0), whereby the number of<br />
states essentially becomes 2. F<strong>in</strong>d p01(0, t), and discuss how the expression depends<br />
on t and the <strong>in</strong>tensities. F<strong>in</strong>d the limit as t → ∞ and discuss the expression.<br />
(RN “Problems <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong>” 14.10.93, problem 8)<br />
Exercise 7.7. (Markov Cha<strong>in</strong>s <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong>) Formulate suitable cont<strong>in</strong>uous<br />
time Markov cha<strong>in</strong> models for solution of the follow<strong>in</strong>g problems, where N is assumed<br />
to be a Poisson variate with parameter 1:<br />
(a) F<strong>in</strong>d the probability that N ∈ {0, 2, 4, . . .}.<br />
(b) F<strong>in</strong>d the probability that N ∈ {0, 3, 6, . . .}. Th<strong>in</strong>k of other variations of the<br />
problem.
52 <strong>Exercises</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong><br />
(RN “Problems <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong>” 14.10.93, problem 9)<br />
Exercise 7.8. (Markov Cha<strong>in</strong>s <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong>) Prove that the four def<strong>in</strong>itions<br />
(2.1), (2.2), (2.3), and (2.5) of the Markov property are equivalent (assum<strong>in</strong>g that the<br />
sample paths of the process are as stated <strong>in</strong> Paragraph 1A).<br />
(RN “Problems <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong>” 14.10.93, problem 10)<br />
Exercise 7.9. (Reserves) At time 0 a person (x) aged x buys a standard pension<br />
<strong>in</strong>surance policy specify<strong>in</strong>g that, conditional on survival, premiums are payable with<br />
level <strong>in</strong>tensity c from time 0 to time m and pensions are payable cont<strong>in</strong>uously with<br />
level <strong>in</strong>tensity b from time m to time n, m < n. There are two states, 0: “alive”<br />
and 1: “dead”. Let µx+t be the force of mortality at age x + t, and denote by<br />
tpx = exp(− t<br />
0 µx+sds) the probability that (x) survives to age x + t. Assume that<br />
<strong>in</strong>terest is earned at a constant rate δ so that v(t) = v t , with v = e −δ the annual<br />
discount rate. Throughout b is taken as fixed and c is to be determ<strong>in</strong>ed by the<br />
equivalence pr<strong>in</strong>ciple.<br />
(a) Put up prospective and retrospective expressions for the reserves <strong>in</strong> both states<br />
at any time t ∈ [0, n) after issue of the policy. As an exercise, f<strong>in</strong>d the reserves also<br />
by solv<strong>in</strong>g the appropriate differential equations. Determ<strong>in</strong>e c.<br />
(b) F<strong>in</strong>d the conditional variances of the <strong>in</strong>dividual reserves (the present values of<br />
future and past payments) at time t, given the state of the policy at time t.<br />
Henceforth the standard policy is referred to as policy ’S’. Consider a modified policy<br />
’P’, by which the prospective reserve <strong>in</strong> state 0 is to be repaid upon death of (x)<br />
dur<strong>in</strong>g the period [0, n).<br />
(c) F<strong>in</strong>d the statewise reserves for ’P’. (Differential equations must now be used.)<br />
Determ<strong>in</strong>e c.<br />
(d) F<strong>in</strong>d the conditional variances of the <strong>in</strong>dividual reserves for ’P’, correspond<strong>in</strong>g to<br />
those <strong>in</strong> (b).<br />
Consider another modified policy ’R’, by which the retrospective reserve <strong>in</strong> state 0 is<br />
to be paid upon the death of (x) dur<strong>in</strong>g [0, n).<br />
(e) F<strong>in</strong>d the statewise reserves for ’R’ and determ<strong>in</strong>e c.<br />
(f) F<strong>in</strong>d the conditional variances of the <strong>in</strong>dividual reserves by policy ’R’, correspond<strong>in</strong>g<br />
to those <strong>in</strong> (b).<br />
(g) Compare the results obta<strong>in</strong>ed for ’S’, ’P’, and ’R’.
Markov Cha<strong>in</strong>s <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> 53<br />
F<strong>in</strong>ally, consider a policy ’M’ with a mixed rule for repayment of the reserve, by which<br />
the retrospective reserve <strong>in</strong> state 0 is to be repaid upon the death of (x) dur<strong>in</strong>g the<br />
premium period [0, m], whilst the prospective reserve <strong>in</strong> state 0 is to be repaid upon<br />
death dur<strong>in</strong>g the pension period [m, n].<br />
(h) F<strong>in</strong>d the statewise reserves for the policy ’M’, and determ<strong>in</strong>e c.<br />
(RN “Problems <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong>” 14.10.93, problem 15)<br />
Exercise 7.10. (Reserves) At time 0 a person buys a life <strong>in</strong>surance policy specify<strong>in</strong>g<br />
that an amount b (the sum <strong>in</strong>sured) is provided immediately upon death before time<br />
n and premiums are payable with level <strong>in</strong>tensity c as long as the person is alive<br />
and active up to time n (premium waiver by disability). Assum<strong>in</strong>g that recovery<br />
is impossible, the relevant Markov model can be sketced below. Assume that the<br />
discount function is v(t) = v t = e −δt . The premium c is to be determ<strong>in</strong>ed by the<br />
equivalence pr<strong>in</strong>ciple.<br />
σ(x)<br />
0. Active <br />
<br />
µ(x) <br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
2. Dead<br />
<br />
1. Disabled<br />
ν(x) <br />
(a) Put up <strong>in</strong>tegral expressions for the transition probabilities.<br />
(b) Put up expressions for the prospective and retrosprective reserves <strong>in</strong> all states<br />
at any time t ∈ [0, n). F<strong>in</strong>d the reserves also by solv<strong>in</strong>g the appropriate differential<br />
equations. Determ<strong>in</strong>e the premium <strong>in</strong>tensity c.<br />
Suppose that <strong>in</strong>stead of full premium waiver, the premium dur<strong>in</strong>g disability is made<br />
dependent on the past sav<strong>in</strong>gs on the contract. More specifically, assume that premiums<br />
dur<strong>in</strong>g disability fall due with <strong>in</strong>tensity c − c ′ V −<br />
1 (t) at time t if the policy then<br />
is <strong>in</strong> state 1.<br />
(c) Which relation must c and c ′ satisfy?<br />
(RN “Problems <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong>” 14.10.93, problem 16)
54 <strong>Exercises</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong><br />
Exercise 7.11 Consider the usual disability model without recovery:<br />
σ(x)<br />
0. Active <br />
<br />
µ(x) <br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
2. Dead<br />
<br />
1. Disabled<br />
ν(x) <br />
An <strong>in</strong>surance is issued to a person (x). Premium is payed cont<strong>in</strong>uously with level<br />
<strong>in</strong>tensity π as long as (x) is alive, at the most for n years. As long as (x) is disabled,<br />
he receives a payment with level <strong>in</strong>tensity c until his death. If (x) dies before the age<br />
of x + n the sum D is paid out. If (x) is active at the time m ∈ (0, n) the sum S is<br />
paid out.<br />
(a) Put up the statewise reserves.<br />
(b) Put up Thiele’s differential equation and determ<strong>in</strong>e the risk sums.<br />
(BS “Opgave til FM0” 1995)<br />
Exercise 7.12 A person considers a life <strong>in</strong>surance policy specify<strong>in</strong>g that an amount<br />
S is paid immediately upon death before time of expiration n. If the <strong>in</strong>sured is alive<br />
at time n he is also provided the sum <strong>in</strong>sured S. Premiums are payable with level<br />
<strong>in</strong>tensity p as long as the <strong>in</strong>sured is active up to time n. That is, the <strong>in</strong>sured has the<br />
right to exemption from payment of premium if he is disabled. Interest is earned at<br />
a constant rate δ. The Markov model used is illustrated below.<br />
(a) Put up the follow<strong>in</strong>g:<br />
σ(x)<br />
<br />
0. Active <br />
<br />
1. Disabled<br />
<br />
ρ(x)<br />
<br />
µ(x) <br />
ν(x) <br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
2. Dead<br />
1. Thiele’s differential equation for the statewise reserves V0(t) and V1(t).<br />
2. The statewise reserve V0(t) as an <strong>in</strong>tegral function of p 00(t, u) and V1(t).<br />
3. The statewise reserve V0(t) as an <strong>in</strong>tegral function of p00(t, u) and p01(t, u).<br />
4. The statewise reserve V1(t) as an <strong>in</strong>tegral function of p 00 (t, u) and V0(t).<br />
5. The statewise reserve V1(t) as an <strong>in</strong>tegral function of p11(t, u) and p10(t, u).
Markov Cha<strong>in</strong>s <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> 55<br />
(b) Differentiate both expressions for V0(t) <strong>in</strong> order to verify Thiele’s differential<br />
equation.<br />
(c) How will you <strong>in</strong> practice f<strong>in</strong>d the equivalence premium for this k<strong>in</strong>d of <strong>in</strong>surance?<br />
(d) Let µt = νt. Put up a differential equation for V1(t) − V0(t). Solve it and use the<br />
result to f<strong>in</strong>d out how σt and ρt ought to be chosen <strong>in</strong> relation to σ ′ t and ρ′ t so that<br />
the effect will be the desired <strong>in</strong>crease of the premium. Give an <strong>in</strong>terpretation of all<br />
results.<br />
(e) F<strong>in</strong>d expressions for the safety load<strong>in</strong>gs for the two states and consider the difference.<br />
Which sign does it have with a reasonable choice of parameters?<br />
(f) Expand the model with the state “surrender”. What would you consider a reasonable<br />
payment <strong>in</strong> connection with surrender from the state of active and disabled<br />
respectively. How should the first order <strong>in</strong>tensity of surrender be put <strong>in</strong> relation to<br />
the <strong>in</strong>tensity on the second order basis with your choice of surrender value?<br />
(MS “Opgave til FM1” 19.09.95)<br />
Exercise 7.13 Consider the usual disability model with four level transition <strong>in</strong>tensities<br />
µ, ν, σ and ρ. Let α = µ + σ, κ = ν + ρ and assume that α = κ.<br />
(a) Show that the probability for an active person be<strong>in</strong>g active <strong>in</strong> t years, after hav<strong>in</strong>g<br />
been disabled once and only once is<br />
<br />
σρ<br />
κ − α<br />
te −αt + e−αt − e −κt<br />
α − κ<br />
(b) F<strong>in</strong>d the probability for an active person be<strong>in</strong>g disabled for the second time <strong>in</strong> t<br />
years.<br />
(c) Expla<strong>in</strong> how one rely<strong>in</strong>g, on <strong>in</strong>formation about death, disability and recovery <strong>in</strong><br />
some population, can estimate the probabilities <strong>in</strong> (a) and (b) <strong>in</strong> two different ways.<br />
<br />
.<br />
(HRH “Opgaver til FM1”)
56 <strong>Exercises</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong><br />
8. Bonus Schemes<br />
FM0 S95, 1<br />
Exercise 8.1 An <strong>in</strong>surance company uses the follow<strong>in</strong>g technical basis: Force of<br />
mortality µx = 0.0005+10 5.88+0.038x−10 (G82M), <strong>in</strong>terest rate i = 5% p. a., acquisition<br />
costs 3% of the sum <strong>in</strong>sured, load<strong>in</strong>g for collect<strong>in</strong>g fees 5% of the premium and<br />
adm<strong>in</strong>istration expenses due cont<strong>in</strong>uously with <strong>in</strong>tensity γV g<br />
t where V g<br />
t is the gross<br />
premium reserve and<br />
γ = log<br />
1, 05<br />
1, 045 .<br />
The technical basis of second order has <strong>in</strong>terest rate ĩ = 5.5% p. a. and force of<br />
mortality ˜µx = µx − ( ˜ δ − δ), where δ and ˜ δ are the forces of <strong>in</strong>terest correspond<strong>in</strong>g to<br />
i and ĩ respectively. Same expenses as above.<br />
A 30-year old person considers an endowment <strong>in</strong>surance, <strong>in</strong>surance period n years.<br />
The premium, calculated accord<strong>in</strong>g to the equivalence pr<strong>in</strong>ciple, is due cont<strong>in</strong>uously<br />
with level <strong>in</strong>tensity dur<strong>in</strong>g the entire period of <strong>in</strong>surance.<br />
(a) Calculate the gross premium <strong>in</strong>tensity and the gross premium reserve after 20 and<br />
40 years, respectively.<br />
(b) Put up a differential equation for the safety load<strong>in</strong>g St<br />
Assume for the time be<strong>in</strong>g that the bonus fund is entirely paid out after 40 years.<br />
(c) Confirm that this gives the greatest possible bonus fund dur<strong>in</strong>g the entire <strong>in</strong>surance<br />
period.<br />
(d) Calculate this bonus fund after 20 and 40 years.<br />
Now assume that the bonus scheme consists of two discrete payments: One after 20<br />
years and one aga<strong>in</strong> after 40 years.<br />
(e) Calculate these two payments.<br />
F<strong>in</strong>ally assume that the bonus scheme is as previously, but that the payment after 20<br />
years is used as a deposit for a life conditioned capital <strong>in</strong>surance, duration n years,<br />
calculated on the technical basis of second order without expense contributions.<br />
(f) Show that the amount, payable at the 40th year, is the same as the payment accord<strong>in</strong>g<br />
to the first bonus scheme and expla<strong>in</strong> the difference between the two schemes.
Bonus Schemes 57<br />
(g) Critisize the considered bonus schemes especially related to the <strong>in</strong>sured that passes<br />
away dur<strong>in</strong>g the <strong>in</strong>surance period and try to suggest a more reasonable bonus scheme.<br />
(SP(74))<br />
Exercise 8.2 Consider two lives (x) and (y) ages x and y respectively with rema<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g<br />
life times Tx and Ty. Assume Tx and Ty to be stochastically <strong>in</strong>dependent.<br />
For premium calculation the company has established a technical basis of first order;<br />
force of <strong>in</strong>terest δ, force of mortality µ (x)<br />
x+t for (x) at age x + t and force of mortality<br />
µ (y)<br />
y+t for (y) at age y + t. (x) and (y) consider a widow <strong>in</strong>surance (whole-life annuity).<br />
The possible whole-life annuity is due cont<strong>in</strong>uously with <strong>in</strong>tensity 1 as long as (y) is<br />
alive and (x) is dead.<br />
(a) What is the present value of the possible whole-life annuity?<br />
(b) Derive an expression for the expected present value of the possible whole-life annuity<br />
<strong>in</strong> terms of one-life and both-life annuity expressions. Give a direct <strong>in</strong>terpretation<br />
of this expression.<br />
For the possible annuity a level cont<strong>in</strong>uous premium is due as long as they both are<br />
alive.<br />
(c) What is the equivalence premium <strong>in</strong>tensity?<br />
(d) Give an expression for the premium reserve by prospective reason<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
(e) Derive Thiele’s differential equation.<br />
Introduc<strong>in</strong>g the technical basis of second order, the <strong>in</strong>terest rate is ˜ δ and the forces<br />
of mortality are ˜µ (x)<br />
x+t and ˜µ (y)<br />
y+t.<br />
(f) Which pr<strong>in</strong>ciples <strong>in</strong> general should be the basis for choos<strong>in</strong>g the technical basis of<br />
second order? How would you determ<strong>in</strong>e the elements of the technical basis of second<br />
order compared to the ones of the first order for the possible whole-life annuity?<br />
(g) Derive an expression for the safety load<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
We now <strong>in</strong>troduce the follow<strong>in</strong>g bonus scheme: As long as (x) and (y) both are alive,<br />
no return of safety marg<strong>in</strong> is due to payment. If (y) dies before (x) no return is due<br />
either. If (x) dies before (y), a cont<strong>in</strong>uous amount B is added to the annuity payment<br />
of one. The amount B is paid out as a cont<strong>in</strong>uous bonus.<br />
(h) Put up an expression for determ<strong>in</strong>ation of B.
58 <strong>Exercises</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong><br />
Instead of the bonus scheme above, we would like a return of an amount equal to the<br />
present value of the added amount B at the time of (x)’s death if (x) dies before (y).<br />
The payment of bonus consists of a cont<strong>in</strong>uous payment of an amount B as long as<br />
the whole-life annuity is due.<br />
(i) What is the difference between the two bonus schemes? Which Bonus scheme<br />
would be preferable from a safety marg<strong>in</strong> view?<br />
(FM100, Oslo 1987 05.12.87 (ex. 1))<br />
Exercise 8.3 By an endowment <strong>in</strong>surance an amount of S is paid either upon death<br />
before year n after the time of issue or at the latest n years after the time of issue.<br />
The premium is due with level <strong>in</strong>tensity B dur<strong>in</strong>g the <strong>in</strong>surance period, the force of<br />
<strong>in</strong>terest is δ, the force of mortality µx, expenses αS by issue and cont<strong>in</strong>uous expenses<br />
with <strong>in</strong>tensity γS + βB per year dur<strong>in</strong>g the <strong>in</strong>surance period.<br />
(a) Determ<strong>in</strong>e the premium B by apply<strong>in</strong>g the equivalence pr<strong>in</strong>ciple. Determ<strong>in</strong>e the<br />
net and gross premium reserves at any time dur<strong>in</strong>g the <strong>in</strong>surance period. F<strong>in</strong>d a<br />
connection between the two reserves and expla<strong>in</strong> the reason for this difference.<br />
The expenses α, β, γ do not conta<strong>in</strong> any safety load<strong>in</strong>gs. On the contrary there are<br />
assumed to be safety load<strong>in</strong>gs κ and λ <strong>in</strong>cluded <strong>in</strong> the force of <strong>in</strong>terest and <strong>in</strong> the<br />
force of mortality respectively. Hence, a realistic force of <strong>in</strong>terest of second order is<br />
˜δ = δ + κ and a realistic force of mortality is ˜µx = µx − λ.<br />
(b) Put up the expression for the safety load<strong>in</strong>g, the policy contributes at any time<br />
dur<strong>in</strong>g the <strong>in</strong>surance period.<br />
The return of premium scheme is as follows: (i) An amount (κ − λ)Vt is paid out<br />
dur<strong>in</strong>g (t, t + dt) dur<strong>in</strong>g the <strong>in</strong>surance period, where Vt is the premium reserve for<br />
cover<strong>in</strong>g the outstand<strong>in</strong>g claims and return of premiums (i. e. the <strong>in</strong>sured earns an<br />
<strong>in</strong>terest (κ − λ)dt of his part of the total fund); (ii) He receives an additional amount<br />
K to the sum <strong>in</strong>sured upon death dur<strong>in</strong>g the <strong>in</strong>surance period.<br />
(c) Determ<strong>in</strong>e K so the total safety load<strong>in</strong>gs are be<strong>in</strong>g allotted to the <strong>in</strong>sured.<br />
(FM1, w<strong>in</strong>ter 1985-86 (ex. 2))<br />
Exercise 8.4 Consider an endowment <strong>in</strong>surance, sum <strong>in</strong>sured S, duration n, age of<br />
entry x. The company adopts the follow<strong>in</strong>g technical basis for calculation of premiums<br />
and premium reserves: Force of <strong>in</strong>terest δ, force of mortality µx and expenses βπ paid<br />
cont<strong>in</strong>uously where π is the level net premium, paid cont<strong>in</strong>uously dur<strong>in</strong>g the entire<br />
period. In the technical basis of first order we assume the force of surrender to be<br />
zero.
Bonus Schemes 59<br />
(a) Put up Thiele’s differential equation and an expression for the equivalence premium<br />
<strong>in</strong>tensity.<br />
The actual development with respect to the technical basis of second order for the<br />
company is as follows: The <strong>in</strong>terest rate has dropped to δ ′ and the adm<strong>in</strong>istration<br />
expenses have dropped to β ′ . Now assume that the force of surrender exists and is<br />
denoted by νx+t t years after the time of issue where νx is <strong>in</strong>dependent of the time<br />
the person has been <strong>in</strong>sured.<br />
(b) Discuss if this assumption of <strong>in</strong>dependence i reasonable.<br />
Until now the company has used the safety load<strong>in</strong>gs to br<strong>in</strong>g down the future premiums<br />
every year, or bonus has been paid out <strong>in</strong> connection with death or surrender,<br />
where the total reserve is allotted. A new bonus scheme is allott<strong>in</strong>g bonus cash every<br />
whole year or by death or surrender.<br />
(c) Put up Thiele’s differential equation for the premium reserve on the technical<br />
basis of second order. What are the boundary conditions? Intuitively, why does νx<br />
vanish?<br />
(d) Put up the differential equations for the bonus funds. What are the boundary<br />
conditions for the two bonus schemes?<br />
(e) Try to figure out the variance of the bonus funds of the 2 bonus schemes.<br />
(FW (rev.), 1994)
60 <strong>Exercises</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong><br />
9. Moments of Present Values<br />
Exercise 9.1 Consider the standard setup, where the development of the life <strong>in</strong>surance<br />
is described by a cont<strong>in</strong>uous Markov Cha<strong>in</strong> on a state space J = {0, . . . , J},<br />
and the contract specifies that a 0 g(t)dt is payable if the policy stays <strong>in</strong> state g <strong>in</strong> the<br />
time <strong>in</strong>terval (t, t+dt) and a 0 gh(t) is payable upon transition from state g to state h at<br />
time t. (More general annuity payments can easily be dealt with, but the expression<br />
becomes more messy.) Assume for the time be<strong>in</strong>g that the discount function v is<br />
determ<strong>in</strong>istic.<br />
To calculate the variance of<br />
V =<br />
∞<br />
0<br />
v(τ)A(dτ),<br />
the present value at time 0 of future benefits less premiums, one needs to f<strong>in</strong>d<br />
EV 2 = E<br />
= E<br />
∞<br />
v(τ)A(dτ)<br />
2<br />
0<br />
∞<br />
v<br />
0<br />
2 (τ)(A(dτ)) 2 ∞<br />
+ 2<br />
0<br />
(a) Prove that (9.1) can be recast as<br />
EV 2 =<br />
∞<br />
0<br />
+ <br />
h=g<br />
v 2 (τ) <br />
g<br />
<br />
<br />
v(τ)A(dτ) v(ϑ)A(dϑ) . (9.1)<br />
ϑ>τ<br />
p0g(0, τ){2a 0<br />
gV +<br />
g (τ)<br />
µgh(τ)a 0<br />
gh (τ)(a0<br />
+<br />
gh (τ) + 2V h (τ))}dτ, (9.2)<br />
where V +<br />
g denotes the prospective reserve <strong>in</strong> state g at time t.<br />
The variance is obta<strong>in</strong>ed by subtract<strong>in</strong>g the square of the mean present value from<br />
the mean of the square. Formula (9.2) appears to offer an escape from the double<br />
<strong>in</strong>tegration that has to be performed <strong>in</strong> (9.1). It requires that the prospective reserve<br />
<strong>in</strong> different states be computed (they are essentially the <strong>in</strong>ner <strong>in</strong>tegral, of course) and<br />
stored <strong>in</strong> memory beforehand. However, we have standard programs for that.<br />
(b) Use (9.2) to calculate the variance for a simple term <strong>in</strong>surance and for a simple<br />
life annuity, for which the results are well-known.<br />
Another simple formula for the variance, which shall not be proved here, is<br />
∞<br />
VarV = v 2 (τ) <br />
p0g(0, τ)µgh(τ)(a 0<br />
+<br />
+<br />
gh (τ) + V h (τ) − V g (τ))2dτ (9.3)<br />
0<br />
g=h<br />
(c) Prove that (9.2) essentially rema<strong>in</strong>s valid by stochastic discount function v(t) =<br />
exp(−∆(t)) if the process {∆(t)}t≥0 has <strong>in</strong>dependent <strong>in</strong>crements.
Moments of Present Values 61<br />
(RN “Problems <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong>” 14.10.93 (Problem 1))<br />
Exercise 9.2 Consider a temporary life <strong>in</strong>surance issued to a person at age x. The<br />
policy specifies that the sum <strong>in</strong>sured S is payable immedieately upon (possible) death<br />
of the <strong>in</strong>sured before time n and that premium is due with fixed amount c at times<br />
0, 1, . . . , n − 1 as long as the <strong>in</strong>sured is alive. Assume that adm<strong>in</strong>istration costs <strong>in</strong>cur<br />
cont<strong>in</strong>uously with constant <strong>in</strong>tensity γS throughout the duration of the policy and<br />
that the force of <strong>in</strong>terest δ is fixed.<br />
(a) Determ<strong>in</strong>e the premium c as a function of S and γ by the equivalence pr<strong>in</strong>ciple.<br />
F<strong>in</strong>d an expression for the prospective reserve of the policy at time t ∈ [0, n).<br />
(b) F<strong>in</strong>d the variances and the covariances of the present values at time 0 of the<br />
<strong>in</strong>surance payment, the premiums and the adm<strong>in</strong>istration costs. F<strong>in</strong>d the variance of<br />
the present value at time 0 of the total cash flow of payments generated by the policy.<br />
To be cont<strong>in</strong>ued as exercise 11.3, page 71.<br />
(RN “Problems <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong>” 14.10.93 (Problem 2))<br />
Exercise 9.3 Consider an n-year term <strong>in</strong>surance with equivalence premium payable<br />
cont<strong>in</strong>uously with level <strong>in</strong>tensity π throughout the duration of the policy.<br />
(a) Put up the prospective reserve and the variance of the present value at issue at<br />
time 0 of benefits less premiums.<br />
(b) Suppose that <strong>in</strong> case of surrender the <strong>in</strong>sured immedieately gets the current net<br />
value of the policy def<strong>in</strong>ed as the prospective reserve at the time of surrender. Assume<br />
that surrender takes place with <strong>in</strong>tensity γ(t) at time t < n. (Thus we consider an<br />
extended model with three states “<strong>in</strong>sured”, “withdrawn” and “dead”.) F<strong>in</strong>d the<br />
prospective reserve <strong>in</strong> state “<strong>in</strong>sured” and the variance of the present value at issue<br />
of benefits less premiums. Compare with the results <strong>in</strong> (a).<br />
(RN “Problems <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong>” 14.10.93 (Problem 4))<br />
It is possible to f<strong>in</strong>d differential equations which determ<strong>in</strong>es any n-order moment<br />
V (n)<br />
k (t) recursively <strong>in</strong> any state k for a generalized Markov-model. In the next exercise<br />
we consider the 2nd order moment for an endowment <strong>in</strong>surance.<br />
Exercise 9.4 Assume that a person at age x buys an n-year endownment <strong>in</strong>surance<br />
with level premium <strong>in</strong>tensity π payable as long as the <strong>in</strong>sured is alive. Upon death<br />
the amount S is paid out immediately. The force of mortality is given by µx at age x.<br />
Let as usual Ut denote the present value at time t of benefits less premiums <strong>in</strong> the
62 <strong>Exercises</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong><br />
future.<br />
(a) F<strong>in</strong>d an expression for V (2) (t) = E(U 2 t<br />
| T > t).<br />
(b) Derive the expression from (a) with respect to t to f<strong>in</strong>d that you will get a differential<br />
equation which determ<strong>in</strong>es V (2) (t) recursively from V (t).<br />
(BM and JC, 1995)
Inference <strong>in</strong> the Markov Model 63<br />
10. Inference <strong>in</strong> the Markov Model<br />
Exercise 10.1 The time cont<strong>in</strong>uous Markov Model shown below<br />
0<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
µ1(x)<br />
µ2(x)<br />
µh(x)<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
is called the model for compet<strong>in</strong>g risks with h reasons for resignation. The function<br />
µ = h<br />
i=1 µi is the total <strong>in</strong>tensity of resignation.<br />
Def<strong>in</strong>e tpx = p00(x, x + t) and tq (k)<br />
x = p0k(x, x + t).<br />
(a) Prove that<br />
and<br />
tpx = p00(x, x + t) = e −<br />
t<br />
o µ(x+s)ds<br />
tq (k)<br />
x+t<br />
x = p0k(x, x + t) =<br />
x<br />
p00(x, s)µk(s)ds, for k = 1, 2, . . . , h.<br />
Assume that L <strong>in</strong>dependent persons of the same age are be<strong>in</strong>g observed dur<strong>in</strong>g one<br />
year. Let the state “0” <strong>in</strong> the model above represent the state “alive” and let the<br />
h reasons of resignation be reasons of deaths. It is possible to assume the forces of<br />
mortality, µ1, . . . , µh, to be constant and the same for all L persons. The number of<br />
deaths from the h reasons are denoted D1, . . . , Dh and the sum of life time is T .<br />
(b) Determ<strong>in</strong>e the maximum likelihood estimators ˆµ1, . . . , ˆµh and the asymptotic distributions<br />
of the estimators.<br />
1<br />
2<br />
.<br />
h<br />
(HRH “Opgaver til FM3” (ex. 2))<br />
Exercise 10.2 Consider the time cont<strong>in</strong>uous Markov model as follows
64 <strong>Exercises</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong><br />
σ(x)<br />
<br />
0. Work<strong>in</strong>g<br />
<br />
<br />
1. Not work<strong>in</strong>g<br />
<br />
ρ(x)<br />
<br />
µ(x) <br />
µ(x)<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
2. Dead<br />
(a) F<strong>in</strong>d explicit expressions for the transition probabilities.<br />
(b) Assume that all members <strong>in</strong> a portfolio of N <strong>in</strong>dependent lives are be<strong>in</strong>g observed<br />
dur<strong>in</strong>g the period of time [0, 1] and assume that all transition <strong>in</strong>tensities are constant<br />
dur<strong>in</strong>g the time of observation. How would you estimate σ, ρ and µ? Determ<strong>in</strong>e the<br />
asymptotic distributions of the estimators.<br />
(HRH “Opgaver til FM3” (ex. 12))<br />
Exercise 10.3 An <strong>in</strong>surance company is to perform a mortality study based on<br />
complete records for n life <strong>in</strong>surance policies with unlimited term period. Policy<br />
number i was issued zi years ago to a person who was then aged xi. The actuary sets<br />
out to maximize the likelihood<br />
n<br />
µ(xi + Ti, θ) Di <br />
xi+Ti<br />
exp µ(s, θ)ds ,<br />
i=1<br />
where the notation is obvious.<br />
One employee <strong>in</strong> the department objects that the method represents a neglect of<br />
<strong>in</strong>formation; it is known that the <strong>in</strong>sured have survived, not only the period they<br />
were <strong>in</strong>sured, but also the period from birth until entry <strong>in</strong>to the scheme. Thus, he<br />
claims, the appropriate likelihood is rather<br />
n<br />
µ(xi + Ti, θ) Di <br />
xi+Ti<br />
exp µ(s, θ)ds .<br />
i=1<br />
Settle this apparent paradox. (A suitible framework for discuss<strong>in</strong>g the problem is an<br />
enriched model with three states, “un<strong>in</strong>sured”, “<strong>in</strong>sured” and “dead”.)<br />
xi<br />
0<br />
(RN “Problems <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong>” 14.10.93 (Problem 5))<br />
Exercise 10.4 Reference is to Paragraph 2C <strong>in</strong> the paper RN “Inference <strong>in</strong> the<br />
Markov Model”, 09.02.93, the Gompertz-Makeham mortality study.
Inference <strong>in</strong> the Markov Model 65<br />
(a) Modify the formulas to the situation where person number i entered the study zi<br />
years ago at age xi.<br />
(b) F<strong>in</strong>d explicit expressions for the entries of the asymptotic covariance matrix of<br />
the MLE.<br />
(RN “Problems <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong>” 14.10.93 (Problem 6))<br />
Exercise 10.5. (Transformation of Data and Analytical Smoothen<strong>in</strong>g) Consider the<br />
mortality model where n <strong>in</strong>dependent persons are be<strong>in</strong>g observed dur<strong>in</strong>g the <strong>in</strong>terval<br />
of age [x, x + z), where x and z are <strong>in</strong>tegers. Exact times of death are observed and<br />
we disregard censor<strong>in</strong>g dur<strong>in</strong>g the period except by age z. The force of mortality µ(t)<br />
at the age of t is assumed to be piecewise constant over one-year <strong>in</strong>tervals of age so<br />
that<br />
µ(t) = µk, for t ∈ [k, k + 1), k = x, . . . , x + z + 1.<br />
We <strong>in</strong>troduce µ = (µx, . . . , µx+z−1) t . Let further more Dk and Tk denote the number<br />
of deaths occured and the observed time of risk <strong>in</strong> [k, k + 1) respectively and let<br />
ˆµ = ( ˆµx, . . . , ˆµx+z−1) t , where<br />
(a) Assume that µk can be cast as<br />
ˆµk = Dk<br />
, k = x, . . . , x + z − 1.<br />
Tk<br />
µk = gk(θ), k = x, . . . , x + z − 1,<br />
where gk(θ) = g(ξk; θ) and ξk ∈ [k, k + 1). Here g(t; θ) denotes a function of the age<br />
t and of an unknown parameter θ = (θ1, . . . , θp) t , p < z. Assume moreover that the<br />
exists and has full rank p for g(θ) = (gx(θ), . . . , gx+z−1(θ)) t . Let<br />
Jacobian Dg = Dg(θ)<br />
dθ<br />
R z<br />
+ = {η = (ηx, . . . , ηx+z−1) ∈ R z | ηk > 0, k = x, . . . , x + z − 1},<br />
and let L : R z + → R z be a differentiable mapp<strong>in</strong>g, so that the z × z Jacobian DL =<br />
DL(η)<br />
dη<br />
and<br />
has full rank z. Def<strong>in</strong>e at last ˆα = (ˆαx, . . . , ˆαx+z−1) t and ˜g(θ) by<br />
ˆα = L(ˆµ)<br />
˜g(θ) = L ◦ g(θ) = L(g(θ)).<br />
The parameter θ can be determ<strong>in</strong>ed <strong>in</strong> two ways by analytical smoothen<strong>in</strong>g. You can<br />
either by modified χ 2 -m<strong>in</strong>imiz<strong>in</strong>g determ<strong>in</strong>e the value of θ that br<strong>in</strong>gs g(θ) “closest”<br />
to ˆµ, or you can by modified χ 2 -m<strong>in</strong>imiz<strong>in</strong>g determ<strong>in</strong>e the value of θ that br<strong>in</strong>gs ˜g(θ)<br />
“closest” to ˆα. Denote these two estimators by ˆ θ and ¨ θ respectively and show that ˆ θ<br />
and ¨ θ has the same asymptotic variance. Is ˆ θ = ¨ θ?
66 <strong>Exercises</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong><br />
(b) Now assume that<br />
µk = βc ξk , k = x, . . . , x + z − 1.<br />
Show how it is possible to use the theory <strong>in</strong> (a) to construct an estimator for (β, c)<br />
that is easy to calculate and give the asymptotic variance of the estimators.<br />
(FM3 exam, w<strong>in</strong>ter 1985-86)<br />
Exercise 10.6 Verify (1.13) – (1.16) <strong>in</strong> the paper RN “Inference <strong>in</strong> the Markov<br />
Model”, 09.02.93.<br />
(RN “Inference <strong>in</strong> the Markov Model” 09.02.93 (Problem 1))<br />
Exercise 10.7 In the situation of paragraph 1E <strong>in</strong> the paper RN “Inference <strong>in</strong> the<br />
Markov Model”, 09.02.93, consider the problem of estimat<strong>in</strong>g µ from the Di alone,<br />
the <strong>in</strong>terpretation be<strong>in</strong>g that it is only observed whether survival to z takes place or<br />
not. Show that the likelihood based on Di, i = 1, . . . , n, is<br />
q N (1 − q) n−N ,<br />
with q = 1 − e −µz , the probability of death before z. (Trivial: It is the b<strong>in</strong>omial<br />
situation.)<br />
Note that N is now sufficient, and that the class of distributions is a regular exponential<br />
class. The MLE of q is<br />
q ∗ = N<br />
n<br />
with the first two moments<br />
Eq ∗ = q, Varq ∗ =<br />
q(1 − q)<br />
.<br />
n<br />
The MLE of µ = − log(1 − q)/z is µ ∗ = − log(1 − q∗ )/z. Apply (6.6) <strong>in</strong> the Appendix<br />
of the paper to show that<br />
µ ∗ <br />
q<br />
∼as N µ,<br />
nz2 <br />
.<br />
(1 − q)<br />
The asymptotic efficiency of ˆµ relative to µ ∗ is<br />
asVarµ ∗<br />
asVarˆµ =<br />
µz<br />
e 2 − e<br />
µz<br />
µz 2<br />
− 2<br />
<br />
s<strong>in</strong>h(µz/2)<br />
=<br />
µz/2<br />
(s<strong>in</strong>h is the hyperbolic s<strong>in</strong>e function def<strong>in</strong>ed by s<strong>in</strong>h(x) = (e x −e −x )/2). This function<br />
measures the loss of <strong>in</strong>formation suffered by observ<strong>in</strong>g only death/survival by age z<br />
2
Inference <strong>in</strong> the Markov Model 67<br />
as compared to <strong>in</strong>ference based on complete obervation throughout the time <strong>in</strong>terval<br />
(0, z). It is ≥ 1 and <strong>in</strong>creases from 1 to ∞ as µz <strong>in</strong>creses from 0 to ∞. Thus, for small<br />
µz, the number of deaths is all that matters, whereas for large µz, the life lengths are<br />
all that matters. Reflect over these f<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>gs.<br />
(RN “Inference <strong>in</strong> the Markov Model” 09.02.93 (Problem 2))<br />
Exercise 10.8 Use the general theory of Section 2 of the paper RN “Inference <strong>in</strong><br />
the Markov Model”, 09.02.93, to prove the special results <strong>in</strong> Section 1.<br />
(RN “Inference <strong>in</strong> the Markov Model” 09.02.93 (Problem 3))<br />
Exercise 10.9 Work out the details lead<strong>in</strong>g to (2.9) – (2.11) <strong>in</strong> the paper RN<br />
“Inference <strong>in</strong> the Markov Model”, 09.02.93.<br />
(RN “Inference <strong>in</strong> the Markov Model” 09.02.93 (Problem 5))
68 <strong>Exercises</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong><br />
11. Numerical Methods<br />
In this chapter we will use some numerical methods on the theory of life <strong>in</strong>urance that<br />
we have already seen. One does not always have a program that can calculate the<br />
premiums, the development of the reserves etc. and it can be necessary to develop<br />
your own programs.<br />
Inspired by SW let us at first deal with numerical <strong>in</strong>tegration. We wish to calculate<br />
the def<strong>in</strong>ite <strong>in</strong>tegral<br />
I =<br />
b<br />
a<br />
f(x)dx. (11.1)<br />
A commonly used numerical method for evaluat<strong>in</strong>g (11.1) is the summed Simpson’s<br />
rule. In all it’s simplicity is states that<br />
b<br />
I = f(x)dx h<br />
<br />
<br />
N−1 <br />
f(a) + 4f(x1) + f(b) + 2 (f(x2k) + 2f(x2k+1))<br />
3<br />
a<br />
with h = (b − a)/2N, xj = a + jh, j = 1, 2, . . . , 2N − 1. The accuracy is good for small<br />
values of h and the implementation of this method is straightforward.<br />
Exercise 11.1 A man aged 25 years considers a pure endowment of 1.000.000, age<br />
of expiration 60. The technical basis of the company is G82M, i. e. the <strong>in</strong>terest rate<br />
is i = 4.5% and the force of mortality is<br />
k=1<br />
µx = 0.0005 + 10 5.88+0.038x−10 .<br />
The premium is a net cont<strong>in</strong>uous premium with level <strong>in</strong>tensity π. Disregard expenses.<br />
(a) Put up Thiele’s differential equation and the expression for the equivalence premium<br />
π.<br />
(b) Apply the summed Simpson’s rule <strong>in</strong> order to calculate π numerically.<br />
(c) Solve Thiele’s differential equation and apply the same algorithm as <strong>in</strong> (b) to<br />
evaluate the premium reserve at times t = 10, 20, 30.<br />
Some expenses are, however, not neglectible and the <strong>in</strong>sured has to pay some expenses<br />
dur<strong>in</strong>g the <strong>in</strong>surance period <strong>in</strong> order to cover the adm<strong>in</strong>istration expenses β,<br />
some fraction of the net premium <strong>in</strong>tensity π. Adm<strong>in</strong>istration costs are due with a<br />
cont<strong>in</strong>uous <strong>in</strong>tensity γVt. Assume that γ is lesser than the force of <strong>in</strong>terest δ.<br />
(d) How is Thiele’s differential equation and the equivalence premium (which is now<br />
the gross premium) modified?<br />
(e) Use your program <strong>in</strong> (c) to calculate the gross premium and the gross premium<br />
reserve at times t = 10, 20, 30.
Numerical Methods 69<br />
(BM og JC, 1995)<br />
The follow<strong>in</strong>g is <strong>in</strong>spired by SW. Now consider the function f. When evaluat<strong>in</strong>g the<br />
net premium reserve <strong>in</strong> the above we solved the differential equation theoretically and<br />
then applied Simpson for evaluation. This is not always possible. Another way is to<br />
solve Thiele’s differential equation numerically; methods for this are plentyful and the<br />
Runge-Kutta method of fourth degree is highly recommended. Let d y = f(x, y(x)),<br />
dx<br />
xk = x0 + kh, k <strong>in</strong>teger and def<strong>in</strong>e<br />
then<br />
k1 = hf(xk, yk),<br />
k2 = hf(xk + 0.5h, yk + 0.5k1),<br />
k3 = hf(xk + 0.5h, yk + 0.5k2),<br />
k4 = hf(xk + h, yk + k3)<br />
y(xk+1) y(xk) + (k1 + k2 + 2k3 + k4)<br />
.<br />
6<br />
The <strong>in</strong>itial condition is y0 = x0. It turns out that a surpris<strong>in</strong>gly big h can be chosen<br />
when the slope is not too big. A sixth order Runge-Kutta can also be applied, but<br />
the difference from the fourth order R-K is really not that great. It is possible to use<br />
the difference between the fourth and the sixth order Runge-Kutta <strong>in</strong> order to f<strong>in</strong>d<br />
appropriate and vary<strong>in</strong>g h’s. The sixth order Runge-Kutta looks like this:<br />
k1 = hf(xk, yk),<br />
k2 = hf(xk + 0.5h, yk + 0.5k1),<br />
k3 = hf(xk + 0.5h, yk + 0.5k2),<br />
k4 = hf(xk + h, yk + k3),<br />
k5 = hf(xk + 2<br />
3 h, yk + 7<br />
27 k1 + 10<br />
27 k2 + 1<br />
27 k4),<br />
k6 = hf(x + 1<br />
5 h, yk + 28<br />
625 k1 − 1<br />
5 k2 + 546<br />
625 k3 + 54<br />
625 k4 − 378<br />
625 k5),<br />
and hence<br />
y(xk+1) y(xk) + 1<br />
24 k1 + 5<br />
48 k4 + 27<br />
56 k5 + 125<br />
336 k6.<br />
In both the fourth and the sixth order R-K, we have <strong>in</strong>itial condition y0 = x0.<br />
It is easy to generalisize the R-K to a system of differential equations. For such a<br />
system of differential equations<br />
⎛<br />
y1(x)<br />
⎜ y2(x)<br />
y(x) = ⎜<br />
⎝ .<br />
⎞<br />
⎟<br />
⎠<br />
⎛<br />
⎜<br />
f(x, y) = ⎜<br />
⎝<br />
f1(x, y1(x), . . . , yn(x))<br />
f2(x, y1(x), . . . , yn(x))<br />
.<br />
⎞<br />
⎟<br />
⎠<br />
yn(x)<br />
fn(x, y1(x), . . . , yn(x))<br />
y 0 =<br />
⎛<br />
y<br />
⎜<br />
⎝<br />
(1)<br />
0<br />
y (2)<br />
0<br />
⎞<br />
⎟<br />
⎠<br />
.<br />
y (n)<br />
0
70 <strong>Exercises</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong><br />
we have, similar to the fourth order R-K,<br />
k 1 = hf(xk, y k ),<br />
k 2 = hf(xk + 0.5h, y k + 0.5k1),<br />
k 3 = hf(xk + 0.5h, y k + 0.5k2),<br />
k 4 = hf(xk + h, y k + k3),<br />
y(xk+1) y(xk) + (k1 + k2 + 2k3 + k4) ,<br />
6<br />
where d<br />
dx y(x) = f(x, y(x)) and y(x0) = y 0 . Remember this method when evaluat<strong>in</strong>g<br />
a system of simultaneous differential equations. It is obvious that this method for<br />
solv<strong>in</strong>g differential equation systems simultaneously has a great applicability when<br />
study<strong>in</strong>g the simultaneous development of the statewise reserves <strong>in</strong> a general Markov<br />
model for a policy. The functions are allowed to depend on each other just as the<br />
statewise reserves depend on each other, compare with the expression for the statewise<br />
reserves.<br />
Exercise 11.2 Consider an endowment <strong>in</strong>surance, duration 20 years, age at entry<br />
x = 30, <strong>in</strong>terest rate i = 4.5%, force of mortality<br />
µx = 0.0005 + 10 5.88+0.038x−10 .<br />
The sum <strong>in</strong>sured is 500.000. The only premium is a s<strong>in</strong>gle net premium Π upon issue<br />
of the contract. The equivalence pr<strong>in</strong>ciple is adopted.<br />
(a) Use the fourth order Runge-Kutta to f<strong>in</strong>d this s<strong>in</strong>gle net premium Π. Use the<br />
same program to study the development of the net premium reserve.<br />
Instead the man does not want to compose any <strong>in</strong>itial capital, but a level cont<strong>in</strong>uous<br />
premium with <strong>in</strong>tensity π dur<strong>in</strong>g the <strong>in</strong>surance period.<br />
(b) Use Runge-Kutta to calculate this premium.<br />
(c) Our man is hav<strong>in</strong>g a hard time decid<strong>in</strong>g, but he chooses to compose an <strong>in</strong>itial<br />
capital of 5.000 and then a level cont<strong>in</strong>uous premium with <strong>in</strong>tensity π dur<strong>in</strong>g the<br />
<strong>in</strong>surance period. What will π be, aga<strong>in</strong> apply<strong>in</strong>g Runge-Kutta?<br />
(BM and JC, 1995)<br />
Exercise 11.3. (Cont<strong>in</strong>ued from exercise 9.2) Compute quantities <strong>in</strong> items (a) and<br />
(b) numerically <strong>in</strong> the case with the G82M mortality, δ = log(1.045), x = 30, n = 10<br />
and b = 1. (A numerical <strong>in</strong>tegration must be performed to f<strong>in</strong>d the second order moments.<br />
Recall formulas (9.1)-(9.2) from exercise 9.1, page 61. Formula (9.1) requires
Numerical Methods 71<br />
<strong>in</strong>tegration <strong>in</strong> two dimensions. Formulas (9.2) and (9.3) require <strong>in</strong>tegration <strong>in</strong> one<br />
dimension when a table of reserves has been generated.)<br />
(RN “Problems <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong>” 14.10.93 (Problem 2))<br />
Exercise 11.4. (Moments of Present Values) Consider the Markov model for disabilities,<br />
recoveries and deaths with <strong>in</strong>tensities as <strong>in</strong> G82M technical basis; no recoveries,<br />
non-differential mortality <strong>in</strong>tensity µ(x) = 0.0005 + 10 −4.12+0.038x at age x and disability<br />
<strong>in</strong>tensity σ(x) = 0.0004 + 10 −5.46+0.06x at age x. As annual <strong>in</strong>terest rate use<br />
4.5%.<br />
(a) Compute the expected value and standard deviation of the present value at time 0<br />
of benefits less premiums for a disability pension <strong>in</strong>surance issued to an active person<br />
at age x = 30, with <strong>in</strong>surance period n = 20 years and specify<strong>in</strong>g that pensions are<br />
payable cont<strong>in</strong>uously with <strong>in</strong>tensity 1 dur<strong>in</strong>g disability and premiums determ<strong>in</strong>ed by<br />
the equivalence pr<strong>in</strong>ciple. Perform the calculations also for x = 30, n = 40 and for<br />
x = 50, n = 20.<br />
(b) Now consider a portfolio of I <strong>in</strong>surance contracts and let V denote the present<br />
value of future benefits less premiums for the entire <strong>in</strong>surance portfolio. Suppose<br />
V + 2 √ V is to be provided as a reserve. Assume all I contracts are identical pension<br />
<strong>in</strong>surance policies as described above, with x = 30 and n = 20 and that the <strong>in</strong>dividual<br />
life histories are stochastically <strong>in</strong>dependent. Study e. g. the “fluctuation load<strong>in</strong>g per<br />
policy”, 2 √ V /I, as function of I.<br />
(c) Perform calculations parallel to those <strong>in</strong> (a) for a modified contract where the<br />
benefit, <strong>in</strong>stead of pensions dur<strong>in</strong>g disability, consists of a lump sum payment of<br />
n<br />
v u−t e −<br />
u<br />
t µ(x+s)ds du<br />
t<br />
upon onset of disability at time t < n. (That is, the sum paid is the value of the<br />
pension described <strong>in</strong> (a), capitalised upon onset of disability.) Take x = 30 and<br />
n = 20. Compare with the correspond<strong>in</strong>g result <strong>in</strong> (a) and comment.<br />
(RN “Problems <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong>” 14.10.93 (Problem 3))<br />
Exercise 11.5 Consider a 30-year term <strong>in</strong>surance, issued on G82M, sum <strong>in</strong>sured<br />
DKK 100.000, age at entry 40. The equivalence pr<strong>in</strong>ciple is adopted. Assume at first<br />
that we have a s<strong>in</strong>gle net premium.<br />
(a) What is the s<strong>in</strong>gle net premium?<br />
(b) Put up an expression for the premium reserve Vt at time t and calculate it for<br />
t = 0, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30.
72 <strong>Exercises</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong><br />
(c) Now assume that the premium is paid cont<strong>in</strong>uously dur<strong>in</strong>g the entire <strong>in</strong>surance<br />
period with level <strong>in</strong>tensity π. What is π?<br />
(d) Put up an expression for the premium reserve and evaluate it us<strong>in</strong>g the same<br />
values of t as <strong>in</strong> (b).<br />
(SP(57))<br />
Exercise 11.6 A man aged 40 years has been issued a 20-year term <strong>in</strong>surance with<br />
sum <strong>in</strong>sured 200.000 and level cont<strong>in</strong>uous premium <strong>in</strong>tensity dur<strong>in</strong>g the <strong>in</strong>surance<br />
period.<br />
F<strong>in</strong>d the premium <strong>in</strong>tensity and the net premium reserve 10 years after the time of<br />
issue of the contract us<strong>in</strong>g the technical basis G82, 4.5% net, assum<strong>in</strong>g the equivalence<br />
pr<strong>in</strong>cple is adopted.<br />
(SP(52))<br />
Exercise 11.7 Consider the disability model outl<strong>in</strong>e below with recovery and excemption<br />
from payment of premium by disability. The <strong>in</strong>surance contract is a 40-year<br />
term <strong>in</strong>surance, sum <strong>in</strong>sured S = 800.000, age of entry x = 25, level premium <strong>in</strong>tensity<br />
π as long as the person is active at the most for 40 years. The <strong>in</strong>terest rate is<br />
4.5%.<br />
Assume that the <strong>in</strong>tensities are<br />
σ(x)<br />
<br />
0. Active <br />
<br />
1. Disabled<br />
<br />
ρ(x)<br />
<br />
µ(x) <br />
ν(x) <br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
2. Dead<br />
µx = 0.0005 + 10 5.88+0.038x−10 ,<br />
σx = 0.0004 + 10 4.54+0.06x−10 ,<br />
ρx = 0.15,<br />
νx = 10 · µx,<br />
where µx and σx correspond to the technical basis G82M (<strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g GA82M).<br />
(a) Put up differential equations for the statwise reserves and for the transition probabilities.<br />
What are the boundary conditions?
Numerical Methods 73<br />
(b) F<strong>in</strong>d the equivalence premium <strong>in</strong>tensity π apply<strong>in</strong>g Runge-Kutta to f<strong>in</strong>de the<br />
transition probabilities and some numerical <strong>in</strong>tegration method for evaluat<strong>in</strong>g the<br />
<strong>in</strong>tegrals.<br />
(c) Study the development of the reserves simultaneously, aga<strong>in</strong> apply<strong>in</strong>g Runge-<br />
Kutta. What are the statewise reserves at the times t = 10, 20, 30?<br />
Exercise 11.8<br />
(a) Construct graphs for the reserves for the follow<strong>in</strong>g four life <strong>in</strong>surances<br />
1. Pure endowment, sum 1 aga<strong>in</strong>st s<strong>in</strong>gle net premium.<br />
(BM and JC, 1995)<br />
2. Pure endowment, sum 1 aga<strong>in</strong>st level cont<strong>in</strong>uous premium dur<strong>in</strong>g the entire<br />
period.<br />
3. Term <strong>in</strong>surance, sum 1 upon death before time n aga<strong>in</strong>st level cont<strong>in</strong>uous premium.<br />
4. Endowment <strong>in</strong>surance, sum 1 upon death or at time x + n, if the <strong>in</strong>sured is still<br />
alive, aga<strong>in</strong>st level cont<strong>in</strong>uous premiums.<br />
All <strong>in</strong>surances are issued on G82, i. e. µx = 0.0005 + 10 −4.12+0.038x and i = 0.045.<br />
(b) F<strong>in</strong>d the premiums above.<br />
(c) What is the expected <strong>in</strong>surance period for product 3?<br />
(d) Consider product 1. Assume that 50% of the reserve is paid out upon death<br />
before the age of x + n. Construct graphs of the reserve and calculate the s<strong>in</strong>gle net<br />
premium.<br />
(MSC “Tillæg til opgave E3” FM0 12.10.94)<br />
Exercise 11.9 We consider a force of mortality which is Gompertz-Makeham, i. e.<br />
µx = α + βc x .<br />
As usual the survival function is denoted by F . Consider an x-year old person with<br />
rema<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g life time T . The survival function for the person is<br />
F (t | x) =<br />
F (x + t)<br />
.<br />
F (x)<br />
The person can sign different k<strong>in</strong>ds of <strong>in</strong>surance contracts:
74 <strong>Exercises</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong><br />
• A pure endowment, where an amount of 1 is payable at time x + n if the person<br />
then is alive. Expected present value for this benefit is<br />
nEx = v n F (n | x),<br />
where v = 1/(1 + i) is the one-year discount rate at <strong>in</strong>terest rate i.<br />
• An n-year temporary annuity, payable cont<strong>in</strong>uously with force 1 per year until<br />
death, at the most for n years. Expected present value for this contract is<br />
ax:n| =<br />
n<br />
0<br />
v t F (t | x)dt =<br />
n<br />
0<br />
tExdt.<br />
• An n-year term <strong>in</strong>surance, where an amount of 1 is payable upon death before<br />
age x + n. The expected present value of this contract is<br />
A 1<br />
x:n|<br />
=<br />
n<br />
0<br />
v t F (t | x)µx+tdt<br />
= 1 − δax:n| − nEx,<br />
where δ = log(1 + i) is the force of <strong>in</strong>terest.<br />
• An endowment <strong>in</strong>surance which is the sum of a pure endowment and a term<br />
<strong>in</strong>surance. The expected present value of this benefit is<br />
Ax:n| = 1 − δax:n|.<br />
(a) Work out tables for µx, F (x) and the density f(x) = F (x)µx for x = 0, 1, . . . , 100.<br />
Use the values <strong>in</strong> the Danish technical basis G82, i. e. α = 0.0005, β = 10 −4.12 ,<br />
c = 10 0.038 and <strong>in</strong>terest rate i = 0.045.<br />
(b) Calculate the expected present values for the contracts above for x = 30, i = 0.045.<br />
(c) Redo the calculations <strong>in</strong> (b) us<strong>in</strong>g other values of x and n. In particular, let n<br />
vary for fixed x = 30 and let x vary for fixed n = 30.<br />
(d) Construct tables that show how the expected present values above depend on<br />
i, α, β and c.<br />
(RN FM1 89/90 opg. E3 05.10.89)
Numerical Methods 75
76 <strong>Exercises</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Life</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>Mathematics</strong><br />
<strong>Insurance</strong> Terms<br />
Aggravated circumstance Skærpede vilk˚ar<br />
Allot Tilbageføre<br />
Amount allotted Tilbagefør<strong>in</strong>gsbeløb<br />
Annuity Annuitet, rente<br />
Bonus scheme Bonusplan<br />
Capital <strong>in</strong>surance Kapitalforsikr<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Child’s <strong>in</strong>surance Børneforsikr<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Collection costs Inkassoomkostn<strong>in</strong>ger<br />
Deduct At fratrække (skat)<br />
Discount rate Diskonter<strong>in</strong>gsfaktor<br />
Down payment Kontant udbetal<strong>in</strong>g (p˚a l˚an)<br />
Duration Varighed<br />
Endowment <strong>in</strong>surance Livsforsikr<strong>in</strong>g med udbetal<strong>in</strong>g<br />
evt. sammensat livsforsikr<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Entry Indtrædelse<br />
Exemption from payment of premium Præmiefritagelse<br />
Excess mortality Overdødelighed<br />
Force of <strong>in</strong>terest Rente<strong>in</strong>tensitet<br />
Force of mortality Dødeligheds<strong>in</strong>tensitet<br />
Hire-purchase agreement Købskontrakt<br />
Installment Afdrag<br />
<strong>Insurance</strong> period Forsikr<strong>in</strong>gstid<br />
Interest rate Rentefod<br />
Issue Udstedelse<br />
<strong>Life</strong> annuity Livrente<br />
Load<strong>in</strong>g for collection costs Inkassotillæg<br />
Portfolio Portefølje, bestand<br />
Premium free policy Fripolice<br />
Pr<strong>in</strong>cipal Hovedstol<br />
Pure endowment Ren oplevelsesforsikr<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Rate of course Kurs<br />
Return of premium Ristorno<br />
Second order technical basis Teknisk grundlag af anden orden<br />
S<strong>in</strong>gle net premium Nettoengangspræmie<br />
Sum <strong>in</strong>sured Forsikr<strong>in</strong>gssum<br />
Surrender Tilbagekøb, genkøb<br />
Surrender value Tilbagekøbsværdi, genkøbsværdi<br />
Technical basis Teknisk rundlag, beregn<strong>in</strong>gsgrundlag<br />
Term <strong>in</strong>surance Ophørende livsforsikr<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Time of expiry Udløbsdato<br />
Underwrit<strong>in</strong>g Processen at tegne en forsikr<strong>in</strong>g