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Distribution, abundance and biology of Group V humpback whales ...

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8.3 <strong>Group</strong> V rates <strong>of</strong> increase<br />

In Queensl<strong>and</strong>, three independent groups, using data<br />

collected by two different methods, have modelled the rate<br />

<strong>of</strong> increase <strong>of</strong> the population. Paterson et al.(1994) <strong>and</strong><br />

Bryden et al.(1997) conducted l<strong>and</strong>-based surveys from<br />

Point Lookout, North Stradbroke Isl<strong>and</strong>, since 1978 <strong>and</strong><br />

1980 respectively. Paterson (1984), Paterson <strong>and</strong> Paterson<br />

(1989) <strong>and</strong> Paterson et al.(1994) estimate the population<br />

is increasing at 11·7 percent a year. Biennial surveys<br />

(1994–1996–1998) undertaken by the Patersons since<br />

1992 confi rm an annual rate <strong>of</strong> increase <strong>of</strong> 11·6 percent<br />

(95 CI: ±1 percent). Both sets <strong>of</strong> shore-based data assume<br />

that <strong>whales</strong> travel at the same speed throughout the day<br />

<strong>and</strong> night (Paterson 1994).<br />

Chaloupka <strong>and</strong> Osmond (1999) modelled data collected<br />

as a secondary consideration by an enforcement agency<br />

undertaking an aerial surveillance program in the Great<br />

Barrier Reef Marine Park. They estimated a much lower<br />

rate <strong>of</strong> population increase <strong>of</strong> 3·9 percent a year.<br />

? 34,000 in 1930:<br />

Matthews 1942<br />

10,396 in tropical<br />

waters 1947-61:<br />

Dawbin 1997<br />

10,000:<br />

Chittleborough 1965<br />

Modern studies data:<br />

Bryden et al 1990, 1997; Patterson et al 1989, 1994;<br />

Patterson 1998 (cited QPWS 1998)<br />

4600:<br />

DeLury 1947<br />

500:<br />

Chittleborough 1965<br />

Figure 9. Extrapolated rate <strong>of</strong> increase for <strong>Group</strong> V <strong>humpback</strong> <strong>whales</strong> 1980–2000<br />

Since the ban on commercial hunting was implemented,<br />

the combined impact <strong>of</strong> international, national <strong>and</strong> state<br />

conservation legislation has contributed to an approximately<br />

40 percent recovery in the <strong>Group</strong> V <strong>humpback</strong> whale<br />

population. In addition there are no signs that the population<br />

is approaching asymptotic level in response to prey<br />

resources, habitat availability or other population limiting<br />

factors. There are no indications that the introduction <strong>of</strong><br />

commercial whale watching in Queensl<strong>and</strong> in 1989, as<br />

managed by QPWS (EPA 2001), has caused any change<br />

in the rate <strong>of</strong> recovery <strong>of</strong> this species (Figure 9).<br />

Global ban on commercial<br />

<strong>humpback</strong> whaling in 1963<br />

11,605 <strong>whales</strong> fi shed<br />

in Antarctic waters:<br />

Mikhalev 2000<br />

10,000:<br />

Chittleborough 1965<br />

800:<br />

Chittleborough 1965<br />

Modern studies data<br />

Figure 8. Summary <strong>of</strong> estimated population size, numbers fi shed <strong>and</strong> associated references for the <strong>Group</strong> V population 1930–2000<br />

15 • <strong>Distribution</strong>, <strong>abundance</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>biology</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Group</strong> V <strong>humpback</strong> <strong>whales</strong> Megaptera novaeangliae: A review • August 2002

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