SPC Mesoscale Analysis and Convective Parameters - NOAA

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Part I: SPC Mesoscale Analysis A Key Part of the Diagnostic Process in the Prediction of Severe Thunderstorms
Why do Surface Mesoanalysis? • Forecast = diagnosis + trend • Incorrect diagnosis of atmosphere reduces the probability of making a correct forecast • Current operational models poorly predict specific atmospheric characteristics critical in convective forecasting, such as: - vertical thermodynamic structure - boundary layer conditions - sub synoptic low-level low level boundaries - affects of ongoing convection
Page 1: SPC Mesoscale Analysis and Convecti
Page 5 and 6: Use Computer and Forecaster Analyse
Page 7 and 8: Observational Sources used in SPC M
Page 9 and 10: Techniques to Help Identify Surface
Page 11 and 12: Mesoanalysis Pressure/Wind Data •
Page 13 and 14: Severe Weather Forecast Tools
Page 15 and 16: SBCAPE
Page 17 and 18: 100 mb MLCAPE
Page 19 and 20: Research Proximity Soundings ** Pro
Page 21 and 22: Edwards/Thompson (SPC) Research Use
Page 23 and 24: Deep Layer Shear Deep layer shear =
Page 25 and 26: Craven/Brooks 0-1km Vector Shear 0-
Page 27 and 28: 0-1 km SRH
Page 29 and 30: Thompson/Edwards MLLCL Heights
Page 31 and 32: Craven/Brooks Findings • MLCAPE a
Page 33 and 34: SIMILAR SOUNDINGS - DIFFERENT CONVE
Page 35 and 36: Supercell Composite Parameter (SCP)
Page 37 and 38: Example of SCP Graphic
Page 39 and 40: STP Equation STP = (MLCAPE/1000 J/k
Page 41 and 42: Example of STP
Page 43: Research Summary •Proximity sound

SPC Mesoscale Analysis and Convective Parameters - NOAA

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