Worldwide Market Forecast For Commercial Air Transport 2002 - 2021

YGR-5026
Worldwide Market Forecast
For
Commercial Air Transport
2002 - 2021
June 2002
Marketing
Japan Aircraft Development Corporation

Index
Foreword ............................................................... 3
1. Summary ..................................................................................................... 4
2. Traffic Forecast ........................................................................................... 9
2.1 Relationship among Passenger Traffic, Economy and Yield ........................ 9
2.2 Economic Forecast ..................................................................................... 10
2.3 Trend of Yield .............................................................................................. 12
2.4 Passenger Traffic .......................................................................................... 13
3. Available Seat Kilometer (ASK) ................................................................... 16
3.1 Load Factor ................................................................................................. 16
3.2 ASK Forecast by Regions ........................................................................... 17
3.3 ASK Forecast by Region and Range .......................................................... 17
4. Fleet and Delivery Forecast ........................................................................ 22
4.1 Improvement of Airplane Utilization .............................................................. 22
4.2 Trend of Airplane Size .................................................................................. 23
4.3 Retirement of Existing Fleet ......................................................................... 28
4.4 Jet Airplane Backlog ..................................................................................... 29
4.5 Stored Aircraft ............................................................................................... 30
4.6 Current and Future Airplane Models ............................................................ 31
4.7 Assumption of Turboprop and Jet Share in Small Airplane Market ............ 32
4.8 Jet Fleet and Deliveries Forecast ............................................................... 33
4.9 Turboprop Fleet and Deliveries Forecast .................................................... 39
5. Engine Market Forecast .............................................................................. 44
5.1 Engine Category and Equipped Airplanes ................................................... 44
5.2 Engine Deliveries Forecast .......................................................................... 45
6. Methodology ................................................................................................ 46
2

Foreword
The forecast for world air traffic and airplane demand for the next 20 years from year
2002 are described in this document worked by the Market group of Japan Aircraft
Development Corporation.
This forecast covers jet and turboprop commercial transport larger than 15 seats
excluding freighter operated by the world airlines domiciled in the 10 geographical
regions except for CIS market, which are Africa, Asia(exclude Japan and China), China,
East Europe, Japan, Latin America, Middle East, North America, Oceania and West
Europe.
Data source to work this forecast are International Civil Aviation Organization(ICAO),
Official Airline Guide(OAG), AirClaim CASE Database, WEFA and OECD Economic
Outlook.
3

1. Summary
A disaster in 2001 was the terror attack in United States on September 11 th , and it
had a bad effect on the airline industry, especially in United States, traffic in
September declined 30% from the same month last year. Each airline in the world
cuts the capacity and employees for the cost reduction, they effort to make a profit
under shrunk operations. In 2002, air traffic indicates to return mainly leisure
passengers, and low-cost airlines show a quick recovery.
As a result, the world airline’s revenues were declined drastically, in United States,
American and United Airlines suffered huge losses nevertheless they received the
government aids. In Europe, the major airlines financial status are serious,
Swissair and Sabena, which were already struggling before then, were forced to
bankruptcy.
The world economy, which is the major drivers for traffic growth, grew only 1.6% in
2001 because of the terror attack on September 11 th , and in 2002, it will keep lower
growth rate of under 2% also, but it will rebound at over 3% growth in 2003, and the
average of GDP growth for the next 20 years will be 3.5% per year. The yield,
which is the other driver for traffic growth, will decline at 1.3% per year for the next
20 years.
REAL GDP GROWTH
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
RECOVERY OF WORLD ECONOMY
Source : WEFA
0.0%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
CALENDAR YEAR
4
PRE-ATTACK FORECAST
POST-ATTACK FORECAST

In 2001, 12,500 jets and 4,300 turboprops are operating in the world, and 6,600 jets
(53%) and 2,900 turboprops (68%) of them will be retired for the next 20 years.
In 2021, jet fleet in the world will account 25,700 units which is 2.1 times of the
present. On the other hand, turboprop fleet will decrease to 3,200 units, which are
3/4 of present, caused by the shift to the regional jets.
UNITS
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5563
5000
DC8,707
8143
JET FLEET FORECAST
ACTUAL
DC10,MD11
L1011
747
767
A310
A300
A320,MD80/MD90
727-200,737-300/400
12510
0
727-100,737-100/200/500,TRIDENT,DC9S
BAC111,F28/F70/F100,DC9
328JET/428JET,ERJ135/145,CRJ200
20-59
SEATER
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
TOTAL
2001YEAR-END: 12,510
2021YEAR-END: 25,727
2002-2021DELIVERIES:
19,859
1138
REGIONAL JETS
3271
2391
2948
2230
NEW DELIVERY
5168
5130
5168
RETAINED
1976
2528 1053
6
FORECAST
17869
RETAINED
JET FLEET AND DELIVERY FORECAST
1191
1692
NEW DELIVERY
A3XX
747X
747
A310 767
777
A340
A330
A300
757
A321
A319/A320
737-700/800/900
A318
717,737-600
CRJ700/900,YSX
728JET/928JET,ERJ170/190,
743
1597
703 1175
1138
880 1053
1191
743
917
554
480
572 703
279 316 259
2001 2021 2001 2021 2001 2021 2001 2021 2001 2021 2001 2021 2001 2021 2001 2021
20-59
SEATER
3227
60-99
SEATER
1597
NARROWBODY
2546
100-119
SEATER
7658
120-169
SEATER
2530
120-169
SEATER
2172
230-309
SEATER
WIDEBODY
917
2889
2317
310-399
SEATER
1434
OVER 400
SEATER
25727
OVER 400
SEATER
310-399
SEATER
230-309
SEATER
170-229
SEATER
120-169
SEATER
100-119
SEATER
60-99
SEATER

Engine deliveries for the next 20 years will be 50,750 units for jets and 4,200 units
for turboprops. They will be $271 billions and $3 billions in dollar value respectively.
The largest engine market category will be 12,000 - 35,000 lb class which is
equipped by A320 and B737 series, and they represent 40% of total engine market
in unit, but 35,000 - 65,000 lb class which are equipped by A300/A310/A340 and
B747/B757/B767 will be the largest one of 33% in dollar value.
NUMBER OF ENGINE
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
THRUST
(X1000 LBS)
No.of ENG VALUE
($B)
TURBOPROP 4,204 3
JET 50,748 271
TOTAL 54,952 274
NUMBER OF
ENGINE
4204
SALES
VALUE
3
12288
20392
8
11434
6634
T/P

2. Traffic Forecast
2. 1 Relationship among Passenger Traffic, Economy and Yield
As air traffic is a part of economic activities, if the economy is active , then air
traffic is active also. And it is known that the air fare effects to the traffic also. Therefore,
the economic (GDP) growth and the decline of air fare (Yield) will result in the
passenger traffic (RPK) growth.
The relationship among RPK, GDP and Yield in the past are analyzed in each
region, and Regional RPK are forecasted by using their relationship, GDP forecast and
Yield forecast.
Here, Regional RPK show RPK for airlines domiciled in the geographical
region.
In 1991, we experienced traffic decrease by the Gulf war. Therefore, we
considered an another factor to decrease traffic for the terror attack last year, as same
as the Gulf war.
CHANGE (%)
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
RPK vs. GDP, YIELD
GULF WAR
-15
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
9
TERROR ATTACK
GDP
YIELD
RPK

2. 2 Economic Forecast
According to the WEFA’s GDP forecast, they modified GDP forecast after the
terror attack. World GDP growth in 2001 is depressed to 1.6% growth from 2.6%, and
expected lower growth at 1.8% in 2002 also. But it will rebound to nearly 4.0% growth in
2003.
REAL GDP GROWTH
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
RECOVERY OF WORLD ECONOMY
Source : WEFA
0.0%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
CALENDAR YEAR
10
PRE-ATTACK FORECAST
POST-ATTACK FORECAST
As the results, world economy will grow at 3.5% per year over the next 20 years,
compared with 2.9% in the past 20 years.
North America and Western Europe will keep moderate growth at the rate of
3.0% and 2.5% per year in the future as same as the past.
Economic recession in Japan is likely to continue for a couple more years, but
in long term, Japan will grow at 2.1% per year as almost same as North America and
Western Europe.
China shows lower growth rate than the past, but it will keep the highest growth
of 7.2% in the world. Other Asia (excluding China and Japan) also sustain high growth
rate of 6.6% per year because of recovery
Latin America, East Europe, Middle East and Africa will show higher growth
rates than the past because of shift to liberalism (East Europe) and progress by
stabilization of political situation (Latin America, Middle East and Africa).

REAL GDP (1990 US$B)
100,000
10,000
1,000
100
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
GDP
GROWTH
per YEAR
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1982-2001 2002-2021
3.5%
2.9%
3.2%
3.0%
WORLD NORTH
AMERICA
REAL GDP FORECAST
ACTUAL FORECAST
2.4%
4.1%
LATIN
AMERICA
2.4% 2.5%
WEST
EUROPE
REAL GDP FORECAST
0.8%
4.7%
EAST
EUROPE
2.4%
11
4.9%
2.8%
4.2%
AFRICA MIDDLE
EAST
SOURCE : IRM/WEFA
3.2% 3.1%
2.4%
2.1%
9.7%
7.2%
5.9%
N.America
L.America
W.Europe
E.Europe
CIS
Africa
Middle East
China
Japan
Asia
Oceania
6.6%
OCEANIA JAPAN CHINA ASIA

2. 4 Passenger Traffic
Considering an effect of terror attack, we prepare 3 scenarios for restraint of air
travels; one year, until 2003 and continues in future. As the most possible case, we
select the scenario which will restrain air travels until 2003.
RPK (BILLIONS)
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
ACTUAL
AIR TRAFFIC FORECAST
0
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
CALENDAR YEAR
13
ACTUAL
FORECAST
RESTRAIN AIR TRAVELS FOR ONE YEAR.
RESTRAIN AIR TRAVELS UNTIL 2003
RESTRAIN AIR TRAVELS IN FUTURE.
ANNUAL
GROWTH RATE
Since 1981, average growth of the world air passenger traffic was 5.5% per
year. For the next 20 years, it will be 5.0% per year and traffic volume will reach 2.7
times as much as 2001 traffic, that said, approximately 8.2 trillion RPK in 2021. This
forecast is based upon the historical progression of technology for the subsonic
transports and their operations but not upon the possible passenger stimulation by
advent of the commercial tilt-rotor plane in the short range market or the supersonic
transport in the long range market.
The traffic growth in North American airlines will be lower than the world
average and their share in the world air traffic will decrease from 37% to 28%.
European airlines will perform nearly the world average growth and maintain
their share of 30%.
5.0%
4.7%

RPK GROWTH
/YEAR (%)
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
5.5
5.0
4.7
3.6
WORLD NORTH
AMERICA
WORLD TRAFFIC GROWTH FORECAST
1982-2001 2002-2021
4.0
5.0
LATIN
AMERICA
5.9
5.2
WEST
EUROPE
1.5
3.4
EAST
EUROPE
3.5
15
6.5
5.8
5.1 5.1 5.2
AFRICA MIDDLE
EAST
5.4
4.3
19.0
8.6
7.0
6.6
OCEANIA JAPAN CHINA ASIA

3. 2 ASK Forecast by Region
Since 1981, ASK growth rate for the worldwide airlines was 4.8%, slightly lower
than RPK growth. For the next 20 years, ASK will grow at 4.7% per year with load factor
improvement.
Growth rate for North American airlines will be 3.3% per year much less than
the world average growth, and will reduce their share in future. European airlines keep
modest growth of 4.9% per year. Asia/Pacific airlines will continue high growth rate of
6.2%, but it is less than the past one.
3. 3 ASK Forecast by Region and Range
3. 3.1 Regions
Growth rates of regional traffic are different, because they have different
geography, population and economic growth. Then the world is divided into 10 regions
as follows, excluding CIS.
3. 3. 2 Range Categories
Regional traffic grows at different growth rate in each route distance category
also. According to the present timetable of world airlines, turboprops are mainly
operated under 1,000km routes, regional jets are operated under 2,000km, narrow-body
jets excluding regional jets are operated under 4500km, and wide-body jets are mainly
operated over 4500km. Thus, the market is divided into following 4 categories by the
route distance.
Long-range : over 4,500km
Middle-range : 2,001 to 4,500km
Short-range : 1,001 to 2,000km
Regional : under 1,000km
17

ASK (MILLIONS)
Regional Short
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
Medium
ASK DISTRIBUTION BY RANGE
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 13000 14000
Non-stop Route Range (km)
18
Long Range
Source : OAG MAX Database, Sep.,2001
Widebody Jet
Narrowbody Jet
Regional Jet
Turboprop
3. 3. 3 Size Categories
Further, ASK in some region and range category are supplied by different size
aircraft. 15 size categories are assumed by the seats from 1 to 800 seats
Following charts show the present ASK distributions in North America, Europe
and Japan by range and size. (OAG scheduled flights as of September 2001)
ASK (MILLIONS)
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
ROUTE ASK DISTRIBUTION - N.AMERICA
001-
019 020-
039 040-
059 060-
079 080-
099 100-
AIRCRAFT SIZE
(SEATS)
119 120-
169
170-
229
230-
309
310-
399
400-
499
4501-
2001-4500
1001-2000
RANGE (km)
1-1000

3. 3. 4 ASK Share Forecast by Region and Range
For the last 20 years, long-range market is expanding its share compared with
other market, and medium-range and regional market shares are shrinking
One of the reasons is long-range market was expanded because of the
improvement of airplanes range capability and popularization of overseas travel.
In future, the long-range market will be matured as same as the short-range's,
and the regional market will be active again, then ASK share in each market will stay
constant level
ASK SHARE (%)
100.0
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
29.5
25.4
21.0
24.1
ASK SHARE FORECAST BY RANGE
Over 4500km
2001-4500km
1001-2000km
Under 1000km
0.0
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
37.8
22.3
20.8
19.1
20
39.8%
21.7%
21.9%
16.5%

AVERAGE SEAT
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
TREND OF AVERAGE SEAT - N.AMERICA
0
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
24
Over 4501km
2001-4500km
1001-2000km
Under 1000km
In West European airlines, average seat per ASK for long-range market
decreased in 1992, then increased recently as same as North American airlines. But
airplane size for medium-range market for Middle East and North Africa routes, still
declined, meanwhile, it is unchanged for short-range and slightly declined for regional
market
AVERAGE SEAT
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
TREND OF AVERAGE SEAT - W.EUROPE
0
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
Over 4501km
2001-4500km
1001-2000km
Under 1000km

For example, in regional, short and medium range markets in North America,
as the average seats are almost constant, ASK will grow without a shift to larger aircraft
size.
YEARLY ASK(M)
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
YEARLY ASK(M)
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
001-
014
001-
014
015-
019
015-
019
020-
039
020-
039
FLEET ASK DISTRIBUTON BY SIZE
(N.AMERICA, Under 1000km)
040-
059
040-
059
060-
079
060-
079
080-
099
080-
099
100-
129
130-
159
26
160-
199
200-
249
AIRCRAFT SIZE(SEAT)
100-
129
130-
159
160-
199
200-
249
250-
309
FLEET ASK DISTRIBUTON BY SIZE
(N.AMERICA, 1001-2000km)
AIRCRAFT SIZE(SEAT)
250-
309
310-
379
310-
379
380-
479
380-
479
480-
599
480-
599
600-
800
600-
800
2021
2011
2001
YEAR
2021
2011 YEAR
2001

YEARLY ASK(M)
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
001-
014
015-
019
020-
039
FLEET ASK DISTRIBUTON BY SIZE
(N.AMERICA, 2001-4500km)
040-
059
060-
079
080-
099
100-
129
130-
159
27
160-
199
AIRCRAFT SIZE(SEAT)
In long range markets, as the average seats are increasing, ASK will grow with a shift to
larger aircraft size.
YEARLY ASK(M)
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
001-
014
015-
019
020-
039
040-
059
060-
079
080-
099
100-
129
130-
159
160-
199
200-
249
200-
249
250-
309
250-
309
310-
379
FLEET ASK DISTRIBUTON BY SIZE
(N.AMERICA, 2001-4500km)
AIRCRAFT SIZE(SEAT)
310-
379
380-
479
380-
479
480-
599
480-
599
600-
800
600-
800
2021
2011
2001
YEAR
2021
2011 YEAR
2001

4. 3 Retirement of Existing Fleet
The average life of passenger jet is trending 20 to 29 years for the past years, it
includes a passenger jet retirement for freighter conversion. 90% of current fleet were
manufactured after 1960, therefore, average life of a passenger jet airplane is assumed
28 years. Hush-kitted airplane is extended its life more 5 to 10 years according to the
trend. However, hush-kitted airplanes will retire in the next 20 years of the forecast, it
will effect to yearly demand but total demand.
Model curve for a passenger jet retirement is based on a standard deviation
curve.
For the next 20 years, 6,600 jets (53%) will retire, so that 5,900 units of existing
12,500 units will remain in 2021. About 80% of existing 100 - 119 seat jets such as old
B737-200 and DC-9-30 will disappear for the period. Massive retirement of 2,600 units
will be forecasted for 120 - 169 seat jets.
Over 170 seat jets and 20 - 59 seat regional jets which are rather young, will
not retire so much.
UNITS
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
AVERAGE RETIREMENT: 28 YEARS.
400-499 SEATER
310-399 SEATER
230-309 SEATER
170-229 SEATER
120-169 SEATER
JET AIRCRAFT RETIREMENT
2000
0
100-119 SEATER
60-99 SEATER
20-59 SEATER
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
YEAR END
28
WIDE
BODY
NARROW
BODY
2001 2021
Year-end Year-end
2002-2021
Retirement
400-499 703 259 444
310-399 917 572 345
230-309 1191 480 711
170-229 1053 554 499
120-169 5168 2528 2640
100-119 1597 316 1281
60-99 743 279 464
20-59 1138 880 258
TOTAL 12510 5868 6642

4. 4 Jet Airplane Backlog
At the end of 2001, passenger jet backlog for over 30-seater stand at 4,070
units, and 83% of them are narrow-bodies which include 1,270 regional jets. The
majority (75%) of backlog will be delivered until 2005.
UNITS
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
992
JET AIRCRFT BACKLOG AND ESTIMATED DELIVERY
922
677
451
286
TOTAL 4,071
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 ?
29
169
DELIVERY YEAR
83
69
500-599 Seater
400-499 Seater
310-399 Seater
230-309 Seater
170-229 Seater
120-169 Seater
100-119 Seater
80-99 Seater
60-79 Seater
40-59 Seater
20-39 Seater
19
1
402

4. 5 Stored Aircraft
Historically, there are stored jets which are another 5 - 6% of operating aircraft.
At the end of 2001, the stored jets were increased to 14% (1700 jets) because airlines
grounded the older and inefficient aircraft from the services to adjust the capacity to the
traffic decrease after the terror attack. They are going to return to the service in near
future, and new jet demands will be depressed for the next 5 years. But the new jet
demand for the next 20 years will not be affected by them.
NUMBER OF
AIRCRAFT
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
9873
IN SERVICE STORED
10197
STORED PASSENGER JETS
10606
11155
6.6% 5.6% 5.4% 5.4%
650 570 573 601
30
11681
858 878
12546 12510
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
YEAR END
7.3% 7.0%
13.8%
1729

4. 8 Jet Fleet and Deliveries Forecast
The world jet fleet exists 12,500 units in 2001, that is 2.2 times of the fleet size
in 1981.
That fleet is projected to increase to 25,700 units until 2021, it is 2.1 times of
the existing fleet, and 19,900 units are forecasted to add as new deliveries and 6,600
old airplanes will be retired for this period.
Two-third of total fleet will be narrow-body airplane and remaining one-third will
be wide-body airplane.
UNITS
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5563
5000
DC8,707
8143
JET FLEET FORECAST
ACTUAL
DC10,MD11
L1011
747
767
A310
A300
A320,MD80/MD90
727-200,737-300/400
12510
0
727-100,737-100/200/500,TRIDENT,DC9S
BAC111,F28/F70/F100,DC9
328JET/428JET,ERJ135/145,CRJ200
20-59
SEATER
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
TOTAL
2001YEAR-END: 12,510
2021YEAR-END: 25,727
2002-2021DELIVERIES:
19,859
1138
REGIONAL JETS
3271
2391
2948
2230
NEW DELIVERY
5168
5130
5168
RETAINED
1976
2528 1053
33
FORECAST
17869
RETAINED
JET FLEET AND DELIVERY FORECAST
1191
1692
NEW DELIVERY
A3XX
747X
747
A310 767
777
A340
A330
A300
757
A321
A319/A320
737-700/800/900
A318
717,737-600
CRJ700/900,YSX
728JET/928JET,ERJ170/190,
743
1597
703 1175
1138
880 1053
1191
743
917
554
480
572 703
279 316 259
2001 2021 2001 2021 2001 2021 2001 2021 2001 2021 2001 2021 2001 2021 2001 2021
20-59
SEATER
3227
60-99
SEATER
1597
NARROWBODY
2546
100-119
SEATER
7658
120-169
SEATER
2530
120-169
SEATER
2172
230-309
SEATER
WIDEBODY
917
2889
2317
310-399
SEATER
1434
OVER 400
SEATER
25727
OVER 400
SEATER
310-399
SEATER
230-309
SEATER
170-229
SEATER
120-169
SEATER
100-119
SEATER
60-99
SEATER

Aircraft Size
(Seats)
20-59
Aircraft
328JET/528JET, CRJ-200,
ERJ-135/140/145
2001 year-end
Fleet
34
1,138
60-99
728JET/928JET, CRJ-700/900,
ERJ-170/175/190/195,
YSX/YSXS
743
100-119 A318, B717/B737-600 1,597
120-169
A319/A320,
B737-700/800/900
5,168
170-229 A321, B757-200/300 1,053
230-309
310-399
JET FLEET AND DELIVERY FORECAST
A300-600, A310-200/300,
A330-200/500,
B767-200/300/400
A330-300,
A340-200/300/500/600,
B777-200/300
1,191
917
400-499 B747-400 703
Over 500 A380-100/200 -
TOTAL 12,510
2021 year-end
Fleet
3,271
3,227
2,546
7,658
2,530
2,172
2,889
962
472
25,727
2002-2021
Deliveries
2,391
2,948
2,230
5,130
1,976
1,692
2,317
703
472
19,859
The 120 - 169 seater market is projected 7,700 units and accounts for the
largest fleet of the total. This market requires 5,100 new deliveries such as A319/A320
and B737 families.
The regional jet market of under 99 seater, has a demand of replacement for
turboprops and a demand for transferred routes from major airlines by appearance of
economical regional jets. The 20 - 59 seater market is mainly existing CRJ and ERJ,
1,100 jets are operated now, will need 3,300 units until 2021. The 60 - 99 seat market, it
has some developing airplanes now, will need 3,200 units until 2020 compared with 700
units now.
The 100 - 119 seater, included 717 and shrink derivatives such as A318 and
737-600, is considered to a minimum size market for major airlines. The fleet of this
market is projected to grow slightly from 1,600 jets in 2001 to 2,500 jets in 2021.
The 170 - 229 seater market, that is the largest size category as a narrow-body
jet, has a potential demand for replacement for the biggest market of 120 - 169 seater
now. The fleet is expected to 2,500 in 2021 from 1,100 in 2001.
In the wide-body market, the fleet of 230 - 309 seater such as 767 class is
1,200 and the fleet of 311 - 399 seater is 900 in 2001. These airplanes are expected to
grow as a major airplane for major domestic routes and international routes, especially
the 310 - 399 seater is projected to grow faster for replacement of existing 747 and new
market for long-range routes. And they will be 2,200 and 2,900 in 2021.
The large airplanes over 400 seater included 747 are mainly operated for
Pacific routes and Asia - Europe routes. The fleet for this market is projected to grow
slowly to 1,400 in 2021 from 700 units in 2001.

UNIT
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
143
JET FLEET FORECAST BY REGION AND SIZE
7918
505
578
755
7476
352
726
476
5193
732
780
78
253
372
580
2339
2698
837
184
3353
253
241
305
2274
835 2252
1298
770
709
159
4182
360
348
334
1163
647
191
733
2001
900
1502
2021
1434
326
310
300
2001
1208
873
2021
102
162
111
43
359
311
367
797
2001
1523
375
366
330
2021
1712
82
100
211
66
598
462
131
62
2001
499
753
566
2021
36
6151
TOTAL FLEET
2001 YEAR-END 12,510
2021 YEAR-END 25,727
N.AMERICA EUROPE ASIA/PACIFIC OTHERS
JET DELIVERY FORECAST BY REGION AND SIZE
5487
377
424
471
1659
706 724
822
914
114
5700
282
562
363
552
1516
1055
5023
632
1084
631
648
1062
327
2002-2021 DELIVERIES
19,859
147
3649
294
274
305
893
473
725
346
646 538
293
N.AMERICA EUROPE ASIA/PACIFIC OTHERS
OVER 400 SEATER
310-399 SEATER
230-309 SEATER
170-229 SEATER
120-169 SEATER
100-119 SEATER
60-99 SEATER
20-50 SEATER
OVER 400 SEATER
310-399 SEATER
230-309 SEATER
170-229 SEATER
120-169 SEATER
100-119 SEATER
60-99 SEATER
20-50 SEATER

Yearly jet delivery experienced big up and down from 250 units at the bottom in
1984 to 1,200 units at the peak in 2001 for the past 20 years by the airline's financial
condition and traffic growth.
Future yearly delivery will decrease to 700 units by 2005 as a reaction of recent
massive deliveries and traffic down turn by terror attack, and then it will gradually
increase to 1,350 units by 2021.
Average yearly deliveries for the next 20 year will be 990 airplanes. This
projection is not considered manufacturer's production capability, but according to the
actual delivery of 1,200 units included regional jets in 2001, 1,350 units production a
year is not an unrealistic value.
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
UNITS
YEARLY JET DELIVERY FORECAST
ACTUAL FORECAST
0
1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017
37
Over 400 Seater
310-399 Seater
230-309 Seater
170-229 Seater
120-169 Seater
100-119 Seater
80-99 Seater
60-79 Seater
40-59 Seater
20-39 Seater

4. 9 Turboprop Fleet and Deliveries Forecast
The passenger turboprop fleet for world airlines exist 4,300 units in 2001.
That is 1.8 times of the fleet size in 1981.
The routes for turboprop in 2001 are almost categorized to the regional market
which includes under 1,000km routes, and the traffic is projected to grow at 4.3% per
year for the next 20 years. But many of over 20 seater turboprops will be replaced by
regional jets, therefore the fleet of turboprops will shrink to 3,200 in 2021.
Assuming the average life of a turboprop is 28 years by the trend, two-third or
2,900 units of the current fleet will be retired during the forecast period. The deliveries of
the turboprops will be 1,800 units for the period.
UNITS
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2394
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
TURBOPROP FLEET FORECAST
ACTUAL FORECAST
4307
3849
3962
748,F27/F50
SAAB2000
DHC8-300
JET STREAM41,CN235
SD330/360
SAAB340
JET STREAM31, DHC6
BE99/MOD1900,METRO,EMB110
0
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
39
DHC8-300
ATR42
FD328,DHC8-100
EMB-120
FD228,
MOD1900
RETAINED
ATR72,DHC8-400
NEW DELIVERY
3203
OVER
60 SEATS
40-59 SEATS
20-39 SEATS
15-19 SEATS

The 15 - 19 seater market is the only viable market for the turboprop airplane.
This market is expected to the largest market for the turboprops because it has no
regional jet, but some of them will be replaced by 20 - 39 seater jets.
Almost of the deliveries for the 20 - 39 seater and the 40 - 59 seater market will
be replaced by the regional jet, the fleet of turboprops for these market will shrink to 70 -
80% of present level.
In the over 60 seater market, only about 370 turboprops are operated, and a
high speed turboprop such as DHC8-400 is developed and just introduced to replace
old turboprops. However, it is not clear how many turboprops will be required in future
as compared with the regional jets. The fleet of this market is projected to grow slightly
to 500 in 2021.
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
UNITS
1675
1675
TURBOPROP FLEET AND DELIVERY FORECAST
996
628
368
1249
1249
1009 1018
513
496
40
1018
2001 2021 2001 2021 2001 2021 2001 2021
691
380
311
TOTAL FLEET
2001 YEAR-END: 4,307
2021 YEAR-END: 3,203
2002-2021DELIVERIES
1,829
15-19 Seater 20-39 Seater 40-59 Seater Over 60 Seater
365
365
507
308
199

The North America which has many regional airlines, will reduce the fleet from
1,600 turboprops in 2001 to 1,000 in 2021, because of shifting to regional jets, and will
be required 450 units or 25% of total turboprop deliveries. The European airlines will
also reduce the fleet from 1,000 to 800, and the deliveries will be 380 units (21%). The
Asia/Pacific which traffic will grow faster than others, will maintain the fleet of 700 units,
and will be required 560 units (31%) for delivery. The rest of world will reduce the fleet
from 1,000 to 700, and will be required 440 units (24%).
UNITS
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
UNITS
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1592
TURBOPROPS FLEET AND DEMAND BY REGION
1047
NEW DELIVERY
450
RETAINED
597
964
758 747 743
377
381
41
561
182
TOTAL FLEET
2001 YEAR-END 4,307
2021 YEAR-END 3,203
2002-2021 DELIVERIES
1,829
1004
2001 2021 2001 2021 2001 2021 2001 2021
N.AMERICA EUROPE ASIA/PACIF OTHERS
450
58
80
157
155
TURBOPROP DELIVERY FORECAST BY REGION
377
84
89
113
91
111
142
117
55
69
126
191 191
N.AMERICA EUROPE ASIA/PACIFIC OTHERS
561
441
655
441
214
2002-2021 DELIVERIES
1,829
OVER 60 SEATER
40-59 SEATER
20-39 SEATER
15-19 SEATER

The maximum yearly delivery was over 450 units for the past 20 years, but
yearly delivery will decline to 90 units in future, because many turboprops will be shifted
to regional jets.
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
UNITS
YEARLY TURBOPROP DELIVERY FORECAST
ACTUAL FORECAST
0
1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017
42
Over 60 Seater
40-59 Seater
20-39 Seater
15-19 Seater

The 1,800 turboprop deliveries to the world airlines are expected to reach
$15.9 billion (2001 US$) over the next 20 years. Compared with the jet market, the
turboprop deliveries are just 9% in unit and 1.4% in sales value.
The 15 - 19 seater will be the largest market in unit, and required 630 units
which are 34% of total turboprop deliveries. The 20 - 39 seater market will be required
510 units (28%), the 40 - 59 seater will be 380 units (21%), and the over 60 seater will
be 310 units (17%).
In sales values, the over 60 seater which is the highest airplane price, will be
$4.9 billions or 31% of total sales of turboprops. The other market will be about $4
billions each for the 40 - 59 seater and 20 - 39 seater, which will be occupied 29% and
25% of total. The 15 - 19 seater will be 17% of total.
UNITS
800
600
400
200
0
628
2.5
TURBOPROPS SALES FORECAST
(2002-2021)
513
3.9
15-19 20-39 40-59 Over 60
SIZE (SEATS)
43
380
4.6
TOTAL
1,829 UNITS
$15.9 BILLIONS
308
4.9
2001 US$
BILLIONS
8
6
4
2
0

5. Engine Market Forecast
The engine's delivery is estimated only from the equipped engines for new
airplane delivery and their spares which are assumed 15% of equipped engines.
The spare engines for existing fleet are not included for this forecast.
5.1 Engine Category and Equipped Airplanes
THRUST
CATEGORY ENGINE NAME
(x1000 lb)
MANU-
FACTURER
THRUST
(x1000 lb)
44
EQUIPPED AIRPLANE (NO. OF ENGINE)
65 - 115 CF6-80E1 GE/SNECMA 67.5 - 72 A330(2)
GE90 GE/SNECMA 75 - 115 B777(2)
GP7000 GE/PW 67 - 75 A380(4), B747X(4)
PW4074/4084 PW 74 - 84 B777(2)
PW4168 PW 68 A330(2)
TRENT 700 RR 64 - 75 A330(2)
TRENT 800 RR 75 - 95 B777(2)
TRENT 900 RR 68 - 84 A380(4), B747X(4)
35 - 65 CF6-50 GE/SNECMA 46.5 - 54 B747(4), A300(2)
CF6-80A GE/SNECMA 48 - 50 B767(2), A310(2)
CF6-80C2 GE/SNECMA 52.5 - 61.5 B747(4), B767(2), A300(2), A310(2), MD-11(3)
JT9D PW 43.6 - 56 B747(4), B767(2), A300(2), A310(2)
PW4000 PW 52 - 68 B747(4), B767(2), A300(2), A310(2), A330(2),
MD-11(3)
RB211-524G/H RR 58 - 60.6 B747-400(4), B767-300(2)
TRENT 500 RR 56 A340-500/600(4)
PW2000 PW 38.2 - 41.7 B757(2)
RB211-535C/E4 RR 37.4 - 43.1 B757(2)
12 - 35 V2500 IAE 22 - 30 A319(2), A320(2), A321(2), MD-90(2)
CFM56 CFM INT'L 18.5 - 34 B737-300/400/500(2), B737-600/700/800/900(2)
A318(2), A319(2),A320(2), A321(2), A340-200/300(4)
JT8D-200 PW 18.5-21 MD-80(2)
PW6000 PW 20 - 23 A318(2)
BR700 BMW/RR 18.5-22 717(2)
-12 LF507 TEXTRON 7 BAe146(4),Avro RJ(4)
CF34 GE 8.6 - 9.2 CRJ-100/200(2), CRJ-700(2), CRJ-900(2), ERJ-170(2)
ERJ-190(2),528JET(2), 728JET(2),928JET(2)
AE3007 ALLISON 7.2-12 ERJ-135(2), ERJ-140(2), ERJ-145(2)
PW300 PWC 4.2 - 5.7 328JET(2)
Turboprop GMA2100 ALLISON 4152 - 6000 SHP DHC8-400(2)
CT7 GE 1870 SHP DHC8-100(2)/300(2)
PW100 PWC 1800 - 2750 SHP ATR42(2), ATR72(2),
DHC8-100(2)/300(2), EMB120(2)
TPE 331 GARRETT 715 SHP CASA212(2), Metro(2), Do228(2)

5.2 Engine Deliveries Forecast
Engine deliveries for the next 20 years will be 50,750 units for jet and 4,200
units for turboprop. They will be $2.71 billions and $3 billions in dollar value
respectively.
The largest engine market category in unit will be 12,000 - 35,000 lb class
which is equipped by A320 and B737 series, and they represent 40% of total engine
market.
In sales value, 35,000 - 65,000 lb class, which is equipped by A340 and
B747/B757/B767, will be the largest one and occupied 33%.
NUMBER OF ENGINE
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
THRUST
(X1000 LBS)
No.of ENG VALUE
($B)
TURBOPROP 4,204 3
JET 50,748 271
TOTAL 54,952 274
NUMBER OF
ENGINE
4204
SALES
VALUE
3
12288
20392
45
11434
6634
T/P

6. Forecast Methodology
The methodology adapted is a regionally and range segmented top-down
approach and is not reliant on the fleet plan of individual airlines.
Segmented ASK distributions by aircraft size are calculated by using OAG
schedule data, and make them to base year's ideal ASK distributions by moving
average method.
Required ASK distribution in future is calculated by using the base year's ideal
ASK distribution and the growth rates of ASK. Then, shift of aircraft size is considered to
link with ASK growth in each segment.
The required ASK will be filled by ASK of retained fleet considered with the
retirement, and the rest will be delivery ASK. After the ASK of backlog aircraft to be
delivered will be excluded from the delivery ASK, the rest will be new delivery (open)
ASK.
The open ASK will be assigned to new aircraft which will be available in the
forecast year, and suitable in size and range. At the same time, it will be also considered
the market share of the aircraft manufacturer. And number of new aircraft will be
calculated from the ASK assigned.
46

The Worldwide Market Forecast for Commercial Air Transport 2002 - 2021
can be found on the internet at : http//www.iijnet.or.jp/jadc/jadc_home.htm.
For more information and questions about this document, contact
nbaba@jadc.or.jp by e-mail.
This document has been prepared with financial support
from The Japan Keirin Association.
Published by Japan Aircraft Development Corporation
Toranomon Daiichi Bldg, 2-3, Toranomon 1-Chome,
Minato-ku, Tokyo 105-0001, Japan
TEL: Tokyo (03) 3503-3212
FAX: Tokyo (03) 3504-0368
47