Worldwide Market Forecast For Commercial Air Transport 2002 - 2021

2. 2 Economic Forecast
According to the WEFA’s GDP forecast, they modified GDP forecast after the
terror attack. World GDP growth in 2001 is depressed to 1.6% growth from 2.6%, and
expected lower growth at 1.8% in 2002 also. But it will rebound to nearly 4.0% growth in
2003.
REAL GDP GROWTH
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
RECOVERY OF WORLD ECONOMY
Source : WEFA
0.0%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
CALENDAR YEAR
10
PRE-ATTACK FORECAST
POST-ATTACK FORECAST
As the results, world economy will grow at 3.5% per year over the next 20 years,
compared with 2.9% in the past 20 years.
North America and Western Europe will keep moderate growth at the rate of
3.0% and 2.5% per year in the future as same as the past.
Economic recession in Japan is likely to continue for a couple more years, but
in long term, Japan will grow at 2.1% per year as almost same as North America and
Western Europe.
China shows lower growth rate than the past, but it will keep the highest growth
of 7.2% in the world. Other Asia (excluding China and Japan) also sustain high growth
rate of 6.6% per year because of recovery
Latin America, East Europe, Middle East and Africa will show higher growth
rates than the past because of shift to liberalism (East Europe) and progress by
stabilization of political situation (Latin America, Middle East and Africa).