Worldwide Market Forecast For Commercial Air Transport 2002 - 2021

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4. 3 Retirement of Existing Fleet The average life of passenger jet is trending 20 to 29 years for the past years, it includes a passenger jet retirement for freighter conversion. 90% of current fleet were manufactured after 1960, therefore, average life of a passenger jet airplane is assumed 28 years. Hush-kitted airplane is extended its life more 5 to 10 years according to the trend. However, hush-kitted airplanes will retire in the next 20 years of the forecast, it will effect to yearly demand but total demand. Model curve for a passenger jet retirement is based on a standard deviation curve. For the next 20 years, 6,600 jets (53%) will retire, so that 5,900 units of existing 12,500 units will remain in 2021. About 80% of existing 100 - 119 seat jets such as old B737-200 and DC-9-30 will disappear for the period. Massive retirement of 2,600 units will be forecasted for 120 - 169 seat jets. Over 170 seat jets and 20 - 59 seat regional jets which are rather young, will not retire so much. UNITS 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 AVERAGE RETIREMENT: 28 YEARS. 400-499 SEATER 310-399 SEATER 230-309 SEATER 170-229 SEATER 120-169 SEATER JET AIRCRAFT RETIREMENT 2000 0 100-119 SEATER 60-99 SEATER 20-59 SEATER 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 YEAR END 28 WIDE BODY NARROW BODY 2001 2021 Year-end Year-end 2002-2021 Retirement 400-499 703 259 444 310-399 917 572 345 230-309 1191 480 711 170-229 1053 554 499 120-169 5168 2528 2640 100-119 1597 316 1281 60-99 743 279 464 20-59 1138 880 258 TOTAL 12510 5868 6642
4. 4 Jet Airplane Backlog At the end of 2001, passenger jet backlog for over 30-seater stand at 4,070 units, and 83% of them are narrow-bodies which include 1,270 regional jets. The majority (75%) of backlog will be delivered until 2005. UNITS 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 992 JET AIRCRFT BACKLOG AND ESTIMATED DELIVERY 922 677 451 286 TOTAL 4,071 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 ? 29 169 DELIVERY YEAR 83 69 500-599 Seater 400-499 Seater 310-399 Seater 230-309 Seater 170-229 Seater 120-169 Seater 100-119 Seater 80-99 Seater 60-79 Seater 40-59 Seater 20-39 Seater 19 1 402
Page 1 and 2: YGR-5026 Worldwide Market Forecast
Page 3 and 4: Foreword The forecast for world air
Page 6: In 2001, 12,500 jets and 4,300 turb
Page 9 and 10: 2. Traffic Forecast 2. 1 Relationsh
Page 11: REAL GDP (1990 US$B) 100,000 10,000
Page 15: RPK GROWTH /YEAR (%) 20.0 15.0 10.0
Page 18: ASK (MILLIONS) Regional Short 60000
Page 24: AVERAGE SEAT 350 300 250 200 150 10
Page 27: YEARLY ASK(M) 120000 100000 80000 6
Page 33 and 34: 4. 8 Jet Fleet and Deliveries Forec
Page 36 and 37: UNIT 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000
Page 39 and 40: 4. 9 Turboprop Fleet and Deliveries
Page 41 and 42: The North America which has many re
Page 43 and 44: The 1,800 turboprop deliveries to t
Page 45 and 46: 5.2 Engine Deliveries Forecast Engi
Page 47: The Worldwide Market Forecast for C

Worldwide Market Forecast For Commercial Air Transport 2002 - 2021

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