Worldwide Market Forecast For Commercial Air Transport 2002 - 2021

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2. 2 Economic Forecast According to the WEFA’s GDP forecast, they modified GDP forecast after the terror attack. World GDP growth in 2001 is depressed to 1.6% growth from 2.6%, and expected lower growth at 1.8% in 2002 also. But it will rebound to nearly 4.0% growth in 2003. REAL GDP GROWTH 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% RECOVERY OF WORLD ECONOMY Source : WEFA 0.0% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 CALENDAR YEAR 10 PRE-ATTACK FORECAST POST-ATTACK FORECAST As the results, world economy will grow at 3.5% per year over the next 20 years, compared with 2.9% in the past 20 years. North America and Western Europe will keep moderate growth at the rate of 3.0% and 2.5% per year in the future as same as the past. Economic recession in Japan is likely to continue for a couple more years, but in long term, Japan will grow at 2.1% per year as almost same as North America and Western Europe. China shows lower growth rate than the past, but it will keep the highest growth of 7.2% in the world. Other Asia (excluding China and Japan) also sustain high growth rate of 6.6% per year because of recovery Latin America, East Europe, Middle East and Africa will show higher growth rates than the past because of shift to liberalism (East Europe) and progress by stabilization of political situation (Latin America, Middle East and Africa).
REAL GDP (1990 US$B) 100,000 10,000 1,000 100 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 GDP GROWTH per YEAR 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1982-2001 2002-2021 3.5% 2.9% 3.2% 3.0% WORLD NORTH AMERICA REAL GDP FORECAST ACTUAL FORECAST 2.4% 4.1% LATIN AMERICA 2.4% 2.5% WEST EUROPE REAL GDP FORECAST 0.8% 4.7% EAST EUROPE 2.4% 11 4.9% 2.8% 4.2% AFRICA MIDDLE EAST SOURCE : IRM/WEFA 3.2% 3.1% 2.4% 2.1% 9.7% 7.2% 5.9% N.America L.America W.Europe E.Europe CIS Africa Middle East China Japan Asia Oceania 6.6% OCEANIA JAPAN CHINA ASIA
Page 1 and 2: YGR-5026 Worldwide Market Forecast
Page 3 and 4: Foreword The forecast for world air
Page 6: In 2001, 12,500 jets and 4,300 turb
Page 9: 2. Traffic Forecast 2. 1 Relationsh
Page 15: RPK GROWTH /YEAR (%) 20.0 15.0 10.0
Page 18: ASK (MILLIONS) Regional Short 60000
Page 24: AVERAGE SEAT 350 300 250 200 150 10
Page 27 and 28: YEARLY ASK(M) 120000 100000 80000 6
Page 29 and 30: 4. 4 Jet Airplane Backlog At the en
Page 33 and 34: 4. 8 Jet Fleet and Deliveries Forec
Page 36 and 37: UNIT 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000
Page 39 and 40: 4. 9 Turboprop Fleet and Deliveries
Page 41 and 42: The North America which has many re
Page 43 and 44: The 1,800 turboprop deliveries to t
Page 45 and 46: 5.2 Engine Deliveries Forecast Engi
Page 47: The Worldwide Market Forecast for C

Worldwide Market Forecast For Commercial Air Transport 2002 - 2021

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