Worldwide Market Forecast For Commercial Air Transport 2002 - 2021
Worldwide Market Forecast For Commercial Air Transport 2002 - 2021
Worldwide Market Forecast For Commercial Air Transport 2002 - 2021
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2. Traffic <strong><strong>For</strong>ecast</strong><br />
2. 1 Relationship among Passenger Traffic, Economy and Yield<br />
As air traffic is a part of economic activities, if the economy is active , then air<br />
traffic is active also. And it is known that the air fare effects to the traffic also. Therefore,<br />
the economic (GDP) growth and the decline of air fare (Yield) will result in the<br />
passenger traffic (RPK) growth.<br />
The relationship among RPK, GDP and Yield in the past are analyzed in each<br />
region, and Regional RPK are forecasted by using their relationship, GDP forecast and<br />
Yield forecast.<br />
Here, Regional RPK show RPK for airlines domiciled in the geographical<br />
region.<br />
In 1991, we experienced traffic decrease by the Gulf war. Therefore, we<br />
considered an another factor to decrease traffic for the terror attack last year, as same<br />
as the Gulf war.<br />
CHANGE (%)<br />
15<br />
10<br />
5<br />
0<br />
-5<br />
-10<br />
RPK vs. GDP, YIELD<br />
GULF WAR<br />
-15<br />
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001<br />
9<br />
TERROR ATTACK<br />
GDP<br />
YIELD<br />
RPK
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