Worldwide Market Forecast For Commercial Air Transport 2002 - 2021

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6. Forecast Methodology The methodology adapted is a regionally and range segmented top-down approach and is not reliant on the fleet plan of individual airlines. Segmented ASK distributions by aircraft size are calculated by using OAG schedule data, and make them to base year's ideal ASK distributions by moving average method. Required ASK distribution in future is calculated by using the base year's ideal ASK distribution and the growth rates of ASK. Then, shift of aircraft size is considered to link with ASK growth in each segment. The required ASK will be filled by ASK of retained fleet considered with the retirement, and the rest will be delivery ASK. After the ASK of backlog aircraft to be delivered will be excluded from the delivery ASK, the rest will be new delivery (open) ASK. The open ASK will be assigned to new aircraft which will be available in the forecast year, and suitable in size and range. At the same time, it will be also considered the market share of the aircraft manufacturer. And number of new aircraft will be calculated from the ASK assigned. 46
The Worldwide Market Forecast for Commercial Air Transport 2002 - 2021 can be found on the internet at : http//www.iijnet.or.jp/jadc/jadc_home.htm. For more information and questions about this document, contact nbaba@jadc.or.jp by e-mail. This document has been prepared with financial support from The Japan Keirin Association. Published by Japan Aircraft Development Corporation Toranomon Daiichi Bldg, 2-3, Toranomon 1-Chome, Minato-ku, Tokyo 105-0001, Japan TEL: Tokyo (03) 3503-3212 FAX: Tokyo (03) 3504-0368 47
Page 1 and 2: YGR-5026 Worldwide Market Forecast
Page 3 and 4: Foreword The forecast for world air
Page 6: In 2001, 12,500 jets and 4,300 turb
Page 9 and 10: 2. Traffic Forecast 2. 1 Relationsh
Page 11: REAL GDP (1990 US$B) 100,000 10,000
Page 15: RPK GROWTH /YEAR (%) 20.0 15.0 10.0
Page 18: ASK (MILLIONS) Regional Short 60000
Page 24: AVERAGE SEAT 350 300 250 200 150 10
Page 27 and 28: YEARLY ASK(M) 120000 100000 80000 6
Page 29 and 30: 4. 4 Jet Airplane Backlog At the en
Page 33 and 34: 4. 8 Jet Fleet and Deliveries Forec
Page 36 and 37: UNIT 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000
Page 39 and 40: 4. 9 Turboprop Fleet and Deliveries
Page 41 and 42: The North America which has many re
Page 43 and 44: The 1,800 turboprop deliveries to t
Page 45: 5.2 Engine Deliveries Forecast Engi

Worldwide Market Forecast For Commercial Air Transport 2002 - 2021

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